9* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves and Phillies have been two of the hottest teams in baseball this month and now face off in a three-game series to conclude June. Atlanta is 19-5 its last 24 games while Philly is 18-6, but it’s a three-game difference in the division with the Braves in second and the Phils in third. Last time these two NL East rivals faced off, they ended up splitting a four-game series down in Atlanta. That was last month. I like the Braves to win Tuesday as I like them at plus money as the better overall ballclub. 

Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. Yet the team is only 7-6 in his 13 starts. They lost the last one, 4-2 at Texas, which was surprising. Not only is Atlanta 9-2 in its last 11 road games, but they’ve won six of seven when opposing a right-handed starter. They’ve won five of their last seven series openers and are 44-17 their last 61 games following a loss, important to note here after letting one slip away vs. the Dodgers Sunday night. 

Charlie Morton has not dropped a decision for the Braves over his L9 starts. Sadly, he’s got just three wins to show for it though. But key for Morton here is the Phillies don’t have Bryce Harper in the lineup (injured) and they’ve already been struggling a bit against righties. The Phils’ batting order has also been pretty “top-heavy” so losing Harper is significant. Morton has a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts as he’s allowed just 11 hits and has 32 strikeouts in 20 innings (issued just one walk). 9* Atlanta

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a big time revenge spot for the Diamondbacks, who have lost six straight times to the Padres including all three games out in SD last week. We’ve got an immediate pitching rematch from one of those three games as Sean Manaea takes on Zac Gallen tonight. Though Manaea and the Padres came out ahead 3-2 last week, my belief is that Gallen is the better starter in this matchup. He’s got better overall numbers and, in fact, last week saw the two starters finish in a near “dead heat,” both going six innings and allowing just two runs. Gallen allowed one more hit, but also had 11 strikeouts (compared to Manaea’s six). I look for the D’backs to get some revenge on Tuesday. 

This one taking place at Chase Field certainly seems to favor Gallen as he’s yet to lose a decision at home this season and has a 2.57 ERA and 0.833 WHIP here. Gallen has also allowed two runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season. San Diego has been more effective on the road when it comes to scoring runs, but is also only averaging 3.9 rpg its last seven while batting a collective .215 and now doesn’t have Manny Machado (injured) in the lineup. Overall, Arizona is 8-5 in games started by Gallen this year. 

Manaea has a history of pitching well against the D’backs, but let’s note the fact he’s allowed three home runs in his last two starts and gave up five runs to the Cubs on 6/14 (in just four innings of work). I don’t see him beating Gallen twice in a row, especially with the Padres’ offense having cooled off considerably. In two of Manaea’s last three starts, SD scored double digit runs. But they now have finished with seven or fewer hits in six of the last seven games (just nine total hits L2 games). 10* Arizona

9* Run Line San Francisco (9:45 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at -1.5. SF just dropped two of three here at home over the weekend to Cincinnati. Already in third place in the NL West, last year’s division champs can ill-afford another subpar series against a bottom-feeder. While the Tigers are technically NOT a last place team, they are certainly bottom five in my own personal power ratings. Looking at who’s on the mound for Tuesday’s opener, there’s a clear advantage to the home team in this one. Look for the Giants to win by at least two runs here. 

Carlos Rodon has been lights out for SF over his last three starts. He’s posted a 0.43 ERA and 0.619 WHIP during that stretch, allowing only one run on seven hits in 21 innings. He has a 26-6 KW ratio. Each start has seen him go at least six innings and allow three hits or less. Making the stretch even more impressive is the fact Rodon faced the Dodgers and Braves, the two NLCS teams from last season. As a member of the White Sox, Rodon faced the Tigers three times last season. He allowed only four runs in 16 innings and picked up a pair of wins, one seeing him allow just a hit in 7 IP and the other seeing him strikeout 12 in six innings. 

Rodon will be opposed by Tarik Skubal, whose recent results couldn’t be more different. Skubal has a 9.88 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in his L3 starts, all losses. Both Rodon and Skubal have 14 starts under their belts this year. Shockingly, Skubal has a 7-7 TSR while Rodon is just 6-8. That doesn’t seem fair. Detroit, even after taking two of three out in Arizona over the weekend, still has the run differential (-97) of a 23-win team. They are 28-44, so really the overall record should be even worse. The Giants are 14-7 in games vs. LH starters, the Tigers are just 7-13. 9* Run Line San Francisco (-1.5)

7* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners got embarrassed in last night’s series opener, losing 9-2 to the Orioles. Despite seemingly being doomed to last place in the AL East, Baltimore has played surprisingly well of late (won five of six) and is now just five games below .500. I’ve previously gone through how Seattle was destined to regress this season after finishing 2021 with 90 wins, despite a very poor run differential. But today marks a rare endorsement of the M’s as starter Robbie Ray has been quite solid and the team should be very motivated after last night’s loss. 

Ray has been dominant over his last three starts, allowing just two runs on 10 hits (total!) in 20 innings of work. He also has 20 strikeouts against just four walks during that time. When pitching at home, Ray has a 2.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. The team has won his last two trips to the mound, both division games, against Oakland and the Angels. It should be noted that when these teams squared off almost a month ago, Seattle took the series opener 10-0, as the road team. Baltimore then immediately bounced back with a 9-2 win of its own. Now, with the roles reversed, I anticipate the same thing to happen here.

Seattle managed only three hits in yesterday’s game and now has several players suspended as a result of Sunday’s brawl with the Angels. They’ll face Dean Kremer on Tuesday. Kremer has pitched every bit as well as Ray has recently, but does have a higher WHIP. Kremer has also made just four starts all season while Ray is at 13. Orioles’ pitching has been shockingly good of late, but I just cannot see Kremer winning a fourth straight start as an underdog. The O’s are just 14-21 off a win this year. 7* Seattle