10* Golden State (10:05 ET): Last season was anything but normal in the NBA. There was a shutdown in March, a “bubble” beginning in July and the Finals weren’t completed until October. But on a less serious note, there was something else strange when it came to start the postseason. Neither the Spurs nor the Warriors were in sight. The two Western Conference stalwarts both missed the playoffs in 2020, but they’ve each got their respective eyes back on them this season. The Spurs come in at 8-6 SU on the year and currently sit 5th in the West. Golden State, at 7-6, isn’t too far behind (in 7th). 

Last time out, the Spurs were able to take advantage of a short-handed Portland team (no Nurkic or McCollum) and won 125-104 as 1.5-point favorites. It was their second straight victory as they were also able to beat the Rockets 103-91 as seven-point chalk two days earlier. Again, that was a short-handed opponent though. In the wake of the James Harden trade, Houston was down to only eight players and almost couldn’t play. Yet they still led San Antonio for much of the first three quarters. 

Golden State was obviously short-handed for most of last year as injuries caused them to nosedive down the standings. San Antonio, like a lot of other teams, took advantage and swept the season series from the Warriors. It was two wins, one in overtime. But this year’s Warriors, while still not back at their Championship level, are much better with Steph Curry playing every day. They just upset the Lakers on Monday, a game where I backed them to cover. This line looks low to me. 10* Golden

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State.

The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here. 

Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State

10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here.

I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home! 

The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas

6* Villareal (3:30 ET): As I mentioned in yday’s La Liga analysis, there’s a real “dividing line” between the top six in the table and everyone else. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as any great shock that it’s the same top six that finished at the top of the table last season, albeit the order is currently different. Villareal is currently 4th, one spot higher than LY’s finish and has the second fewest number of losses in all of La Liga currently w/ only 2. Only table leaders Atletico Madrid have tasted defeat fewer times.

Granada is 7th again (where they finished LY), but there are some troubling signs for this side, namely a -8 YTD goal differential. That has them in line with some of the teams towards the bottom of the table and the biggest issue of all is they’ve conceded more times (29) than anyone else here in La Liga.  Granada’s possession numbers weren’t great last season, so a tumble down the table is something I’d anticipated. While that really hasn’t happened as of yet, everything is pointing to the fact it likely WILL happen.

Villareal has now won four straight across all competitions following a 1-0 victory over Tenerife in Copa del Rey action this past weekend. The Yellow Submarine has lost just ONCE in their last 24 across all competitions and they are unbeaten at home this season. Granada was also successful in the Copa del Rey last time out and before that they defeated 19th place Osasuna 2-0. But their away form hasn’t been good as they’ve won only two of eight on the La Liga road this season, scoring a league-low five times in that run. This would appear to be an even bigger mismatch than the existing odds say it is. 6* Villareal.

10* Stuttgart (2:30 ET): This is a matchup of the two promoted sides for this Bundesliga season, Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld. One is certainly faring better than the other in the German top flight as Stuttgart is currently 10th in the table, but is actually performing even better than that when you consider they have the 6th best goal differential (+8) in the league. Meanwhile, Bielefeld is really struggling as they are down in 15th, dangerously close to the relegation zone. They’ve scored only 10 goals, easily the fewest in the entire Bundesliga through 16 weeks. Stuttgart has TRIPLED the number. 

This marks the second time in three weeks I’m taking Stuttgart. They turned in an excellent performance the last time, destroying Augsburg by a score of 4-1. Last week was a 2-2 draw with Gladbach, but there’s no shame there. No side in the entire Bundesliga has been more successful on the road this season than Stuttgart, who has picked up 17 points from their eight matches on the road. That they’ve only won one time in their last five Bundesliga matches is of no concern as you need to look at the caliber of the competition they’ve been facing. This will be their first crack at a side residing at the bottom of the table since a 2-1 win over Werder Bremen on December 6th.

Things have been getting a bit better for Arminia Bielefeld of late as they’ve picked up four points from their previous two matches, a 1-0 win over Hertha Berlin and a scoreless draw with Hoffenheim. But in addition to the lack of goal scoring (just two in the last six matches!), Bielefeld’s other issue here is a step up in class. Other than a 1-0 loss to Gladbach, they’ve faced nothing but teams from the bottom half of the table over the past two months. 10* Stuttgart

7* Manon Fiorot (Time TBD): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the Women’s Flyweight Division. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts though Fiorot is 5-1 in her pro career while Victoria Leonardo is 8-2. Fiorot has been bet up pretty heavily and I agree with this line move.

Fiorot lost her pro debut via split decision back in June of 2018. Since then, it’s been five consecutive victories and the last three have all been finishes, each taking fewer time than the previous one. Her most recent fight was back in November and ended in Round 1 as she defeated Gabriela Campos via TKO. While she likes to strike from a distance, Fiorot has also demonstrated some grappling skills in her short MMA career. What I look for is for her to dictate the terms of this fight. 

Leonardo comes by way of Dana White’s Contenders Series. She was not expected to defeat Chelsea Hackett back in November, but did (2nd round TKO) and thus earned the contract. Leonardo is aggressive and will be the most physically imposing opponent Fiorot has faced to date. But I feel she lacks the necessary skill to win over the course of 15 minutes. It’s notable that Fiorot did not have to go through DWCS to get signed by the promotion. Also, Leonardo has been stopped twice before. 7* Manon Fiorot