10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brewers have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series (both by one run). But despite the losing streak, this remains a quality ballclub and my favorite to win the NL Central this year. While it’s true they have a negative YTD run differential, that’s largely a byproduct of one bad game (Sunday’s 16-4 loss to the Dodgers). The Brew Crew have been getting outstanding starting pitching thus far and I expect that to be the case tonight when they send Freddy Peralta to the mound.

Peralta is unbeaten in five starts (3-0) with a 4-1 TSR. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and is coming off an incredibly impressive outing where he held the Dodgers to just one hit (a solo HR) in six innings last Friday. Peralta has allowed just 12 hits so far (in 26 IP) and has 39 strikeouts. Despite losing each of the L2 days, the Brewers are still 9-5 on the road where they are outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. They were also 8-2 off a loss coming into this series. 

The Phillies lead the NL East right now, but that’s not saying much as their WL record is 15-15 and they have a -15 run differential. They come into today batting just .216 the L7 games. I don’t expect much out of starter Chase Anderson, who has a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Phils are just 1-4 with Anderson on the mound this season and have yet to score more than four runs in any of those five starts. Anderson did pick up a win his last time out, but that was against the light-hitting Mets. 10* Milwaukee

8* Seattle (3:40 ET): Because Baltimore is 10-6 in road games this season and has its best starter (John Means) going this afternoon, we’re able to grab a fairly cheap price on the opposition. I say “go for it” as the Mariners won 5-2 yesterday and I am unconvinced Means alone can carry the Orioles to victory here. Despite the surprisingly good record in road games so far, the O’s project to be a pretty lousy team in 2021 and should lose 90+ games. I think now is a good time to fade, before the bottom drops out. 

Seattle hasn’t exactly been a great offensive team thus far. So opposite Means, they’ll need a good start today from Yusei Kikuchi. Fortunately, Kikuchi looked great his last time out as he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings. He’d struggled some in the two starts before that, but has gone 6+ innings while allowing 3 ER or less three times this season. Baltimore has faced Kikuchi only one time previous to this. It was 2019 and Kikuchi pitched well (3 ER allowed in 6 IP) in what turned out to be a 13-3 win. 

The Mariners have now won four of six following yesterday’s 5-2 victory. One situation they have particularly excelled in this season is day games where their record is 10-3. Key here is that I don’t believe Baltimore is going to score many runs. They are hitting .218 in games vs. LH starters. While it’s unlikely Seattle scores a ton of runs today, they have already won a game against Means this season when they beat the Orioles 4-3 at Camden Yards on 4/13. The three runs allowed by Means in that start are a season-high. 8* Seattle

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings won their third straight game last night, squeaking by the Thunder (in OKC) 103-99. I had the Under there, which was an easy win (cashed by 27 points!), as I loved the fact that both teams were playing without their respective leading scorers. The loss of De’Aaron Fox hasn’t seemed to bother Sacramento all that much however, as the team has not only won (and covered) three straight, but also five of its last seven. I’ll take the points Wednesday as Indiana is even more banged up than the Kings.

The Pacers have scored an incredible 293 points their last two games. That’s the good news. While they turned in the biggest road win in NBA history (at OKC) on Saturday (152-95), they turned around and gave up 154 (no OT!) to the Wizards on Monday. They allowed the Wizards to shoot 61.2% from the field, an alarming number which included only nine made three-pointers for the Wiz. Indiana has not been good ATS at home all year, owning an 8-22 record. There are rumors that HC Nate Bjorkgren’s future here may be in some trouble as he’s had trouble “gelling” with players & staff. 

Sacramento isn’t likely to make the playoffs, but this three-game win streak shows they aren’t going down without a fight. Beating the Thunder isn’t anything special, but the two previous wins were against the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Dallas. Indiana will likely be in the “play-in” tournament in the Eastern Conference, but is also four games below .500 and the record-setting thrashing of the Thunder is their only win in the L4 games. With seven players listed as questionable or out, the Pacers shouldn’t be laying this many points. 10* Sacramento

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have bet the Cavs last night. A double digit home dog, they took Phoenix into overtime but did NOT get the cover as they were outscored 20-4 in the extra five minute period. That’s tough. But I’ll use that result to my advantage tonight as the Cavs are again catching double digits at home, but facing a weaker opponent. Having failed to cover any of their last seven games, Cleveland is “due” to get the cash sooner rather than later. So take the points here. 

Portland comes into C-town off a 123-114 loss at Atlanta. This is the final game of a six-game trip out East for the Blazers and while they won the first four, the schedule is bound to catch up with them. This is their third road game in four nights, always a tough situation. While the Blazers do have a 20-13 SU road record this season, they are outscoring teams by just 1.2 points per game. So they should feel fortunate to have that record. Quite frankly, I’ve been skeptical of this team finishing in the top six in the West for some time now. 

The Blazers are just one game back of Dallas and the Lakers for sixth. They could end up finishing as high as fifth, but I don’t see that happening. This team is very bad defensively as they give up the second highest number of points per possession in the league (only Sacramento is worse). Though Portland wasn’t nearly as healthy the first time these teams met, it’s notable they were only -3.5 at home. This is the most points they’ve been asked to lay on the road all season and it’s only the third time they’re set to go off as a DD favorite, period. 8* Cleveland