At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation offers the opportunity to remind us that we are betting numbers rather than teams. For Zach Wilson and this Jets’ offense, things cannot get much worse than they have been the last two weeks. But the opportunity to take them getting more than a touchdown with them playing at home is too good to pass up. New York has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when getting 7.5 to 10 points as the underdog. With the nationally-televised audience tonight — and apparently Taylor Swift in the house — look for the Jets to play inspired football like they did when they upset Buffalo in a prime-time game at home at MetLife Stadium in Week One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by seven points or less to an AFC East rival. They have been outgained by 171 and 215 yards in two straight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in two straight games. The Jets offense has only scored 20 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 20 points in two straight games. The New York defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games after their upset loss to Detroit in Week One — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My biggest question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason was whether the defending Super Bowl champions could maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs replaced eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark. Before crushing the train-wreck Bears last week, Kansas City had only scored 20 and 17 points in their first two games with Mahomes not throwing for 300 net yards in either contest. The supporting cast of wide receivers after tight end Travis Kelce has looked shaky — and remember their eight drops against the Lions were in another nationally-televised prime time game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5-14 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 23-18 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (1-2) won their first game of the season in a 28-24 upset victory at Minnesota as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders will be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who suffered a concussion late in the game against the Steelers. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will be under center for head coach Josh McDaniels — and while the former Purdue quarterback look good in the preseason, he will be introduced to non-vanilla defenses and first-string players this afternoon. Even with Garoppoli, they have not scored more than 18 points in any of their games this season. The Raiders have played a decisive 46 of their last 72 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while they committed three turnovers last week from Garoppolo interceptions, they have then played straight Unders after a game where they had three or more turnovers. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 54 of their last 85 home games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Justin Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards in the victory — and the Chargers have played 22 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after playing a game where they passed for at least 350 yards.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 3 of their last 4 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the Chargers home field. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 25-11 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 18-17 upset loss at Green Bay as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers offense got exposed against the Eagles as they only gained 174 total yards. Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 25 passes for a meager 146 yards. Tampa Bay is scoring only 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Bucs have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is holding them back — the season-ending knee injury to center Ryan Jensen was a major blow for this team. They struggled to get a running game going last year even with a healthy Jensen — and now they are averaging just 78 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. They got outrushed by -160 yards last week to the Eagles — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -150 or more yards. Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid as they are allowing only 19.7 PPG after holding two of their opponents to only 17 points. New Orleans has not allowed more than 20 points in 11 straight games behind what may be the most underrated defense in the league. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they held the Packers scoreless going into the fourth quarter before squandering that lead, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. It looks like Derek Carr is going to give it a go in this one after being listed as questionable all week with a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. With running back Alvin Kamara returning from his suspension, look for the New Orleans offense to focus on the ground game to protect Carr in what will likely be a contained game plan. New Orleans returns home where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. Tampa Bay has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.