11-18-17 |
Central Florida v. Temple +14 |
|
45-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
92 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* UCF/Temple AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Temple +14
I backed the UCF Knights regularly early in the season. They did not disappoint as they opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS, consistently covering the spread by big margins. But then the betting public caught on and the oddsmakers had to really over-adjust, and as a result we've seen the Knights fail to cover the spread in their last two games.
After beating Austin Peay 73-33 with no line, UCF came back and only beat SMU 31-24 as 14.5-point road favorites two weeks ago. Then last week, they only beat a terrible UConn team 49-24 as 38-point favorites. UConn was playing with a backup quarterback for the first time this season in that game as well. Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay two touchdowns against an vastly improved Temple team from the start of the season.
Indeed, the Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Oddsmakers have consistently missed the mark on them down the stretch. They only lost 13-20 to Houston as 11.5-point dogs, won 34-10 at ECU as 3.5-point favorites, suffered a fluky loss at 8-2 Army 28-31 as 7-point dogs in overtime, beat Navy 34-26 as 6-point dogs and topped Cincinnati 35-24 as 2.5-point road favorites last week. Their only ATS loss came to UConn 24-28, but that was a very misleading final as they outgained the Huskies by 225 yards and clearly should have won.
In fact, the Owls have now outgained five straight opponents by a combined 633 total yards, or by an average of 126.6 yards per game. That's why I think we can ignore Temple's early season struggles because this is a completely different team now. This is a team capable of hanging with and upsetting UCF thanks to an average that has come to life, averaging 31 points and 464.8 yards per game in their last five games.
The catalyst has been QB Frank Nutile, who replaced Logan Marchi three games ago. Nutile has completed 62 of 91 (68.1%) of his passes for 803 yards and a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his past three games. The Owls have also been much improved defensively in conference play, giving up just 25.2 points, 349.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in AAC action.
This is a clear lookahead spot for the UCF Knights. They have a game on deck against South Florida next week that is going to decide who wins the AAC East division and moves on to face Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. The winner of that game will also likely be the coveted Group of 5 selection for a big bowl game against a Power 5 opponent. I can't help but think the Knights have to be thinking more about the USF game and not paying enough attention to Temple this week.
Temple is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. The Owls are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 conference games. Temple is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Owls are finishing strong for a second consecutive season. Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the inflated 14 points for some added insurance. Take Temple Saturday.
|
11-18-17 |
UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn |
|
14-42 |
Win
|
100 |
92 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +37
Talk about the spot of all spots. Auburn couldn't be in a worse sandwich spot then it is this week. After upsetting No. 1 Georgia last week and knocking the Bulldogs clear down to No. 7 in the playoff rankings, Auburn now has an even bigger game on deck against current No. 1 Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl. That game will be for all the marbles to win the SEC West and go to the conference championship game, while also keeping Auburn's playoff hopes alive.
It's safe to say that Auburn will not be up for this game at all as it steps out of conference to play Louisiana-Monroe. The bigger concern will be keeping everyone healthy so that they will have all hands on deck against Alabama next week. That means the starters are likely to get pulled early. Winning and staying healthy is the priority, not winning by more than 37 points to cover this massive spread.
We saw Auburn in a similar spot earlier this season. The Tigers were coming off a huge game against Clemson in their opener, and they proceeded to lay an absolute egg against Mercer at home the next week. The Tigers only won that game 24-10 as 40-point favorites. I think that result alone against an FCS opponent lets you know that Louisiana-Monroe is more than capable of staying within 37 points of Auburn this week.
And Louisiana-Monroe is much better than Mercer. I have been impressed with the Warhawks this season. They sit at 4-6 on the year but haven't been blown out yet. In fact, their largest defeat has come by 11 points this season. They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 27.5-point dogs earlier this season to show what they are capable of.
Plus, Louisiana-Monroe gets two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn after last playing on November 4th and having their bye last week. We last saw them come through with one of their best performances of the season, a 52-45 home win as 8-point dogs against Appalachian State. That's a very good App State team and their only loss in Sun Belt play thus far this season. And Appalachian State only lost 10-31 at Georgia earlier this season.
The Warhawks boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 37.0 points, 476 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that only give up 29.5 points, 407 yards per game and 5.8 per play. It's a balanced attack that averages 194 rushing yards and 281 passing yards per game. The Warhawks certainly have the offense to score on this Auburn defense and keep them within the number.
Plays against any team (AUBURN) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. The Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 or more points. College football underdogs of 30 or more points this season alone are 57-23 ATS. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|
11-17-17 |
South Dakota State +22 v. Kansas |
|
64-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +22
The Kansas Jayhawks are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off a 65-61 win over Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday. There's no way they''ll be able to get up for South Dakota State tonight after just playing for Kentucky.
South Dakota State (3-0) is coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago, advancing as the champion of the Summit League Tournament before falling to eventual runner-up Gonzaga.
The Jackrabbits, favorites to claim the Summit League title, are coming off a 94-63 rout of Alabama State on Tuesday. They have outscored opponents by 22 points on average, with 13.0 3-point goals made and 44.8 percent shooting from that range.
"I was really happy with how our guys shared the ball once we got into a rhythm offensively," South Dakota State coach T.J. Otzelberger said after the Jackrabbits had 23 assists against Alabama State. "Our guys are really sharing it. Obviously when you make a lot of 3-point shots that's going to happen, but I thought a lot of the guys gave great contributions."
Forward Mike Daum was the preseason player of the year in the Summit League and averages team-highs of 21.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 3.0 steals. The 6-9 junior has two double-doubles.
Kansas is 0-6 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons. The Jack Rabbits are 20-5 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past three seasons. Roll with South Dakota State Friday.
|
11-17-17 |
Heat v. Wizards UNDER 209 |
|
91-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Wizards UNDER 209
This is a home-and-home situation. The Wizards beat the Heat 102-93 on Wednesday. Now they play each other just two days later on Friday. They're obviously familiar with one another now, and familiarity favors defense. That's why I like the UNDER in this home-and-home situation.
After all, they combined for just 195 points in their first meeting on Wednesday. Now the books have set this number clear up at 209, which is 14 points more than they combined for on Wednesday. I think we see a similar result here with under 200 combined points.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 52-24 (68.4%) since 1996.
Miami is 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Wizards last six games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-2 in Miami's last eight games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
11-17-17 |
Heat +5.5 v. Wizards |
Top |
91-88 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +5.5
This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA. It's a home-and-home situation between the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards. Washington beat Miami 102-93 on Wednesday, outscoring the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Now, playing two days later, the Heat will be the team out for revenge, and thus the more motivated squad. A lot of being successful in the NBA is handicapping motivation, and there's no question the Heat are the team you want tonight given this home-and-home situation.
That was a rare win for the Wizards in this series as the Heat are still 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings, winning outright as underdogs in three of those. I think they get their revenge and win this game outright, though we'll take the 5.5 points for some added insurance. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings in Washington.
Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons. It is coming back to win these road games 102.0 to 100.5 on average. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games. Bet the Heat Friday.
|
11-16-17 |
CS Bakersfield v. Arizona -24 |
|
59-91 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -24
I think Arizona is actually showing value as 'only' 24-point favorites tonight because of the fact that they have opened 0-2 ATS this season. But both losses came by a half-point as they beat Northern Arizona 101-67 as 34.5-point favorites in a 34-point win, and htey beat MD-Balt County 103-78 as 25.5-point favorites in a 25-point win.
CS Bakersfield won't be able to hang with them today. This is a Bakersfield team that was good last season, but won't be this season due to all they lost. They lost their best three players in Jaylin Airington (14.3 ppg), Dedrick Basile (12.6 ppg) and Matt Smith (10.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Their only two returning starters are Brent Wrapp (4.7 ppg) and Shon Briggs (7.4 ppg).
Head coach Rod Barnes didn't bring in any junior college reinforcements as he usually does, instead electing to go young with five freshmen. There will be early-season struggles, and there already has been. After beating Whittier 88-66, Bakersfield went on the road and lost 53-77 to a bad Georgia Southern team. If Georgia Southern can beat them by 24, Arizona should have no problem winning by more than that margin tonight.
Plays against a road team (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Sean Miller is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team made 60% of their shots or better in all games he has coached. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|
11-16-17 |
Titans +7 v. Steelers |
Top |
17-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
77 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7
The Tennessee Titans continue getting zero respect from oddsmakers despite their 6-3 start that has included four straight wins coming into this game against Pittsburgh Thursday night. They failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Titans outgained the Bengals by 108 yards and racked up 416 total yards in the win.
The Steelers have also won four straight coming in, but they continue to get a lot of love from the betting public and oddsmakers, unlike Tennessee. They aren't getting docked at all for their ugly 20-17 win over the Colts last week as 10.5-point favorites. The Colts actually led that game 17-3 and arguably should have won despite not having top receiver TY Hilton and missing several key players on defense.
At 7-2 on the season, the Steelers have a three-game lead over second-place Baltimore (4-5) in the AFC North. I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency because of it, and that showed last week against the Colts. Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a first-place tie with Jacksonville (also 6-3) and cannot afford to take the foot off the gas.
It's nice to see Marcus Mariota back fully healthy now after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year that forced him to miss most of two games. The Titans are 6-1 in games that Mariota starts and finishes this season. He threw for 264 yards and rushed for 51 more on six carries last week against Cincinnati, proving that his hamstring issues are a thing of the past.
The Titans have been remarkably healthy otherwise, which has been a key to their success. The Steelers had been healthy up until last week. But they are going to be without two key players in their secondary due to injury moving forward. Safety Mike Mitchell suffered an ankle injury against the Colts and is doubtful, while CB Joe Haden broke his leg against the Colts and is likeley out for the season. James Harrison is also dealing with a back injury that forced him to miss the Indianapolis game. Mariota should find plenty of success through the air against the Steelers this week.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - off two consecutive home wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1983. The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off two consecutive home wins. They are winning these games by 9.7 points per game on average. Bet the Titans Thursday.
|
11-16-17 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 216 |
|
88-92 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Celtics TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216
The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have been able to win 13 straight games is because they bring it defensively every night. In fact, the Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions. They are allowing just 94.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting on the season.
The Golden State Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.8 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have given up 99.2 points per game in their last six contests.
Recent meetings between these teams indicate there's value with the UNDER, and the Celtics were a lot worse defensively than they are this season. Each of the last five meetings have seen 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation. They have averaged 201 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 216, giving us a ton of value with the UNDER. They combined for 185 and 192 points in their two meetings last season.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (BOSTON) - after four or more consecutive wins against opponent after five or more consecutive wins are 34-8 (81%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 14-3 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Pacific. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and would be 9-1 if not for overtime. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
11-16-17 |
Buffalo -20.5 v. Ball State |
|
40-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* Buffalo/Ball State MAC Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo -20.5
The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate, and that is evident with their impressive 8-2 ATS record this season. They have suffered three losses by a combined 5 points in conference play, so they have just had terrible luck in close games.
Fortunately, this game will not be close. That's because Ball State has been the punching bags of the MAC this season. The Cardinals have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in MAC play, getting outscored by a ridiculous 42.8 points per game in the process. They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and giving up 53.2 per game in conference play. Off six straight losses by 28 or more points, the Cardinals just want this nightmare of a season to be over.
Conversely, Buffalo still has a lot to play for. The Bulls can still make a bowl game if they win their last two games. They have a tough one up next, but they get Ohio at home, and Ohio proved beatable with a loss at Akron on Tuesday of this week. I think the Bulls are good enough to beat Ohio and have the confidence to do so. But first they know they need to take care of business against Ball State this week.
Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback. He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's not surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive. He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson. They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest. Jackson really looked like himself last week, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.
The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Ball State is 1-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games. Fading Ball State is the gift that keeps on giving, and we'll take advantage this week. Take Buffalo Thursday.v
|
11-16-17 |
Appalachian State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
|
98-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +10.5
The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg). Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg). They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.
I backed Missouri against Iowa State in the opener, and the Tigers delivered with a 74-59 victory as 6-point favorites. But I didn't fade Iowa State in its next game because it was up against a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that had just gone 11-24 the previous season. That was a mistake. Iowa State lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites 56-74, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 31.5 points.
Now the Cyclones are being asked to lay 10.5 points on a neutral court against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have been impressive, winning their two games against overmatched opponents by finals of 135-34 and 93-57. App State returns three starters from last year in Ronshad Shabazz (16.7 ppg, 66 3-pointers), Griffin Kinney (9.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Tyrell Johnson (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg). Plus, sophomore Isaac Johnson (6.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is a double-double waiting to happen and should take a big leap forward after a solid freshman season.
All four guys have made significant contributions early in the season. Shabazz (24.5 ppg), Johnson (17.0 ppg), Kinney (9.5 ppg) and Johnson (5.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) have played well. And two newcomers in O'Showen Williams (10.5 ppg) and Justin Forest (9.5 ppg) have contributed as well. The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. They cannot be laying double digits here with how awful they have played. Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.
|
11-15-17 |
Creighton v. Northwestern -4.5 |
|
92-88 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -4.5
The Northwestern Wildcats went 24-12 last season and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. Not only did they win a game in the tournament, they took eventual national runner-up Gonzaga to the wire in the second round.
Now the Wildcats return four starters from that team. They are G Bryant McIntosh (14.8 ppg, 5.2 apg), G/F Scottie Lindsey (14.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Vic Law (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and C Derek Pardon (8.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg). This team is loaded and ready to get back to the Big Dance under Chris Collins.
Creighton also made the NCAA Tournament last year, but only brings back two starters in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, who have accounted for nearly 40 percent of the Bluejays' scoring through their first two games in wins over Yale and Alcorn State. The Bluejays lost four key players from last year's team, including Big East Rookie of the Year Justin Patton, who was drafted 16th overall by the Chicago Bulls.
Plays against a road team (CREIGHTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game, after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - good defensive team from last season that held opponents to 42% or less shooting, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1997.
The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons. After two lackluster performances to start the season in wins but not covers, I think we are now getting a discount on the Wildcats as only 4.5-point favorites tonight. They will be focused and ready to go with Creighton coming to town. Take Northwestern Wednesday.
|
11-15-17 |
Pistons v. Bucks -3.5 |
|
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have been a completely different team since Eric Bledsoe was inserted into the lineup after being traded from the Suns. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games with him, beating the Spurs 94-87 on the road, and the Lakers (98-90) and Grizzlies (110-103) at home.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.8 apg) is having an MVP-caliber season, but he wasn't getting much help before Bledsoe (13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg with Milwaukee) arrived. Now he has his help with Khris Middleton (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) also playing well.
The Detroit Pistons have certainly been one of the most underrated teams up to this point, going 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS through their first 13 games this season. But they have done most of their damage at home with eight home games compared to five on the road. And with that early success comes expectations that I don't think they can live up to. They are getting too much respect now from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Bucks tonight.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has gone 12-3 straight up in the last 15 meetings. The Bucks are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home meetings with the Pistons. Detroit is 5-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.
|
11-15-17 |
Cavs v. Hornets +2.5 |
|
115-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +2.5
The Charlotte Hornets have had four days off between games having last played on Friday. They will be rested and ready to go against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. This extra time off has helped get Nic Batum ready for his season debut after missing the first 12 games with an injury.
The Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight. But all four losses came on the road, and three were by 7 points or less. The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 111.6 points per game and shooting 47.2% from the floor at home.
They should feast on an overrated Cavaliers team that is just 7-7 SU & 4-9-1 ATS. The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries as they'll be playing without Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose tonight. But the biggest problem for the Cavs is they don't play defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up a ridiculous 111.1 points per 100 possessions.
Cleveland is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season. Charlotte is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|
11-15-17 |
Wizards v. Heat -1 |
Top |
102-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat will be happy to be back home following a tough six-game road trip. They went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS on the trip with their three losses coming to Denver (by 1), Detroit (by 9) and Golden State. They upset the Clippers and Jazz and thumped the Suns.
Normally I don't like backing teams off a long trip like that in their first game back home, but I think we are safe to do it here tonight. That's because Miami has had two days off since losing to the Pistons on Sunday. It has given them time to take care of their priorities at home, and they should come out 100% focused against the Wizards tonight.
I think the Wizards are getting too much love from oddsmakers right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. But they have played four straight and six of their last seven at home, and the three straight wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Hawks and Kings. Not to mention, they were upset by another bad team in the Mavs 99-113 as 9.5-point favorites prior to the winning streak.
The Heat simply own the Wizards. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Washington. They were actually underdogs in three of those contests and a 1-point favorite in another. They clearly have the Wizards figured out. And I think their biggest advantage is the fact that they have a deep bench, while the Wizards have basically no bench, and that always seems to get overlooked.
Plays against any team (WASHINGTON) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. This trend makes a lot of sense and shows there is value fading teams off three consecutive covers as a favorite like the Wizards are right now. Take the Heat Wednesday.
|
11-15-17 |
Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
69 h 20 m |
Show
|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Ohio -3
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are prepared for this situation. Just last year, they started 0-6 before winning their final six games to get bowl eligible. They were expected to compete for a MAC title with all they had returning in 17 starters and a ton of talent, but this season hasn't gone the way they wanted, mainly due to an injury to QB Gus Ragland and some bad breaks in close games early.
But here they were again this season, sitting at 3-6 and needing to win their final three games to make the postseason. Ragland returned from injury last week and led the Redhawks to a 24-14 home win over Akron. The Redhawks outgained the Zips by 147 yards. Ragland threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns to lead them to victory.
So now they are just two wins away from getting back to the postseason. They play the worst team in the MAC in Ball State next week, so they will get in if they win this game. It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight, and I look for them to get the job done in blowout fashion in what should be their best effort of the season.
Eastern Michigan has had a hard-luck season with close loss after close loss. The final straw was last week when they lost 30-42 at Central Michigan while self-destructing with five turnovers. The Eagles are now 3-7 on the season and cannot make a bowl game, so I really question their motivation this week. I don't expect them to show up at all.
Just looking at Miami's numbers this season it's easy to see that they are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate. They have actually outgained eight of their 10 opponents this season. The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards by Notre Dame and by 70 by Cincinnati. Miami is outgaining teams by 42 yards per game on the season, including by 66 yards per game in conference play. That is the sign of a good team and one that should be better than 4-6 right now.
Miami has won nine straight meetings with Eastern Michigan with six of those victories coming by double-digits. The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Plays on any team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (140 to 190 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game), after allowing 2.0 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 69-33 (67.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.
|
11-14-17 |
Kansas -4.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
65-61 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5
The Kansas Jayhawks are the better team here over the Kentucky Wildcats. They have three guys with significant experience, while the Wildcats are starting five freshmen and playing eight freshmen in their rotation.
Kansas returns senior G Devonte Graham (13.4 ppg, 4.1 apg), talented shooter Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and G Lagerald Vick (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg). C Udoka Aubuike (5.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) is back after being limited to 11 games as a freshman.
Kansas routed Tennessee State 92-56 in its opener. Graham nearly had a triple-double with 10 points, seven rebounds and 12 assissts. Freshman Marcus Garrett, the Gatorade Texas Player of the Year who nearly averaged a triple-double his senior season, finished with 10 points and 10 rebounds.
Vick was the leading scorer with 23 points. Mykhailiuk added 15 points, Azubuike had 13 and sophomore Malik Newman added 12 points. Newman is a former No. 2 overall recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State and had to sit out last year.
Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point favorites in its opener. That's the same Utah Valley team that lost by 30 at Duke. I had Vermont +13.5 against Kentucky on Sunday and watched most of that game. Vermont nearly pulled the upset, losing 73-69. It's clear that the Wildcats have some issues, especially shooting the ball and perimeter defense. They are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers per game on 12 attempts per game.
I like the fact that Kansas has had three days off to get ready for Kentucky, while Kentucky has only one day to get ready for Kansas after playing on Sunday. The Jayhawks have had the Wildcats' numbers, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings over the past two seasons.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Kansas Tuesday.
|
11-14-17 |
Celtics v. Nets +7.5 |
|
109-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +7.5
The Boston Celtics are way overvalued right now and it's time to 'sell high' on them. The Celtics have won 12 straight since losing their first two games of the season, going 10-1-1 ATS in the process. The betting public is all of this team now, and they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road to a pesky Brooklyn Nets team.
Kyrie Irving missed last game due to injury and could miss this one as well. I also think it's a great situation to face the Celtics here. They are coming off a huge 95-94 upset win over Toronto without Irving, and now they have an even bigger game on deck at home against Golden State Thursday night. This is a classic sandwich spot, and I don't expect them to be 100% focused for this one like they have been up to this point.
The Nets have quietly gone 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games. They pulled off road upset wins over Phoenix and Portland, only lost on the road to Denver by 8 as 12.5-point dogs, and barely failed to cover as 7-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Utah. This team has been highly competitive this season and should continue being undervalued.
Plays against favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 73-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Nets Tuesday.
|
11-13-17 |
Dolphins +10 v. Panthers |
Top |
21-45 |
Loss |
-125 |
140 h 44 m |
Show
|
20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10
The Miami Dolphins should not be catching double-digits against the Carolina Panthers Monday night. I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Dolphins in what will be a closer game than the books anticipate. This is clearly a 'buy low, sell high' situation that I like.
We'll 'buy low' on the Dolphins, who have lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 on the season. That includes their misleading 40-0 loss in Baltimore two weeks ago in which the Ravens scored two non-offensive touchdowns and only managed 295 total yards despite. Then they played well last week, but came up short in a 24-27 home loss to the Raiders.
Jay Cutler clearly showed against the Raiders that he was healthy. He completed 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Of course, it was a bonus that he got a healthy DeVante Parker back in the lineup. Parker hadn't been healthy since Week 4. He contributed five catches for 76 yards in the loss. His presence will help open things up underneath the rest of the way for guys like Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, who both had receiving touchdowns against the Raiders. Both running backs Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams also finished with six receptions apiece to show their versatility in the absence of the traded Jay Ajayi.
It was really nice to see the Dolphins come through with one of their best offensive outputs of the season, because this team already has a very good defense. Indeed, the Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 315.4 yards per game. They have been very good against the run, giving up only 94 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. That will be key in trying to stop a Carolina team that wants to run first and pass second.
We'll 'sell high' on the Panthers, who have won two in a row since their ugly 3-17 loss to Chicago. Everyone is quick to forget about that loss because they won 17-3 in Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta 20-17 at home the past two weeks, respectively. That win over the Bucs doesn't look as good now, and Julio Jones dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have given the Falcons the win last week. The Panthers are extremely overrated now as they will be the biggest favorites they have been all season this week.
I just don't trust this Carolina offense to put up enough points to be able to cover a double-digit spread. The Panthers rank 24th in scoring offense (18.7 PPG), 21st in total offense (313.1 YPG) and 26th in offensive yards per play (4.8). Those aren't the kind of numbers you would expect from a team behing asked to lay double-digits.
Carolina does have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Panthers have been great against the run, but that won't be much a factor here because the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL already. The Dolphins are going to rely on Cutler to move the ball through the air, and the weakness of the Panthers is their secondary. They give up 64.9% completions to opposing quarterbacks. I think Cutler will have enough success to keep this game close, especially with a weapon like Parker healthy and back in the lineup.
And after beating back-to-back division rivals in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Panthers. Plays against any team (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 76-32 (70.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1983.
And he's another system that shows it's a good idea to buy low on teams who have failed recently against the spread by big margins. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina. Bet the Dolphins Monday.
|
11-13-17 |
Grizzlies v. Bucks -3.5 |
|
103-110 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
We could look back to the Eric Bledsoe trade and realize the Milwaukee Bucks got an absolute steal. Bledsoe wore out his welcome in Phoenix, but he has come back determined and motivated to show that he is still a great player in this league. The Bucks will continue getting the best out of him this season.
In Bledsoe's two games with the Bucks, they won 94-87 at San Antonio as 4.5-point dogs, and topped the Lakers 98-90 at home as 6.5-point favorites. Now they are only being asked to lay 3.5 points here at home to the Memphis Grizzlies. I think this is a nice discount as the Bucks are the better team and should roll.
The Grizzlies took the league by surprise in the first couple weeks in winning five of their first six. But now the Grizzlies have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games. They have been on the road for a long time as this will be their 5th straight road games following a 96-111 loss in Houston on Saturday.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Bucks Monday.
|
11-13-17 |
La Salle v. Pennsylvania |
|
75-71 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle PK
The La Salle Explorers return a ton of talent from a team that went 15-15 last season, including 9-9 in A-10 play. On the perimeter, the Explorers have a pair of guards in B.J. Johnson (17.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg last year) and Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) who have the skills to play in the NBA some day.
Pennsylvania is getting too much respect here due to returning four starters, but this is a team that went just 13-15 a year ago and is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Ivy League. They will be decent this season, but they have to win this game to cover the spread, and I don't think they can.
Penn opened with a 72-80 road loss at Fairfield despite being 3.5-point favorites. La Salle crushed St Peters 61-40 at home, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites. Defense was a problem for the Explorers last season, but after one game I like what I've seen in holding St. Peters to 40 points and 30.6% shooting while forcing 17 turnovers.
Pennsylvania is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK. John Giannini is 14-2 ATS after a combined score of 110 points or less as the coach of La Salle. Roll with La Salle Monday.
|
11-12-17 |
Heat v. Pistons UNDER 202 |
|
103-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Pistons UNDER 202
The books continue to set the bar too high in Miami Heat games. The Heat have been a completely different team since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup from a five-game absence. They have allowed 101 or fewer points in five of six games since his return, including 97 or fewer four times. He is one of the best defenders in the NBA and a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors.
The Detroit Pistons have an eraser of their own just like Whiteside in Andre Drummond. The Pistons have held four straight opponents to 104 or fewer points, including 99 or fewer three times. Miami ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.7 points per 100 possessions. Detroit ranks 12th, giving up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.
Both teams also prefer to play at slower paces. Detroit ranks 21st in pace at 99.1 possessions per game, while Miami is 17th at 100.3 possessions per game. That helps to explain why this is usually a low-scoring series when these teams get together because they both play great defense and the tempo is closer to a snail's pace.
Detroit and Miami have combined for 197 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings. They have averaged just 195.9 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 6 points less than today's 202-point total, showing you what kind of value we are getting.
Better yet, each of the last seven meetings in Detroit have seen 199 or fewer combined points. They have averaged just 192.1 combined points in those seven meetings, which is 10 points less than this 202-point total. The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Heat last 29 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Pistons last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
11-12-17 |
Vermont +13.5 v. Kentucky |
|
69-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vermont +13.5
This is the worst team the Kentucky Wildcats have had in some time. It's telling that they're not ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season because they are in the Top 10 basically every year under John Calipari.
The Wildcats lost all five starters. Their leading returning scorer is Wenyen Gabriel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), who only played 8.4 minutes per game last year. Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point home favorites in their opener on Friday. That result will be a sign of things to come for this team as they started five freshmen in that game.
Now Kentucky takes a big step up in class against a feisty Vermont team that went 29-6 last season and gave Purdue all it could handle in an 80-70 loss in the NCAA Tournament. The Catamounts now return four starters from that team and each of their top four scorers.
Back is American East Player of the Year Trae-Bell Haynes (11.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.9 apg) at point guard. Also back is Rookie of the Year Anthony Lamb (12.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 43 blocks), F Payton Hensen (11.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and G Ernie Duncan (8.7 ppg, 40% 3-pointers). Quinnipiac transfer Sam Dingba becomes eligible this season.
"I think the combination of our experience and the fact that we played three exhibition games, I feel like we're as prepared as we've been heading into the early season here," head coach John Becker said. This roster is loaded from a team that won 29 games a year ago and fully capable of giving the Wildcats a run for their money today. Take Vermont Sunday.
|
11-12-17 |
Steelers v. Colts +10.5 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5
What more to the Indianapolis Colts have to do to get any respect from oddsmakers and the betting public? I'm not sure, but I'll take advantage and back them as double-digit home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. They should not be getting this many points with how well they are playing right now.
No team is playing harder than the Colts right now. Two weeks ago, they went into Cincinnati as 11-point dogs and only lost 23-24 after a pick-6 by the Bengals in the fourth quarter. They only gave up 276 total yards to the Bengals and outgained them by 55 yards. Then last week they won 20-14 in Houston as 6-point dogs and outgained them by 83 yards, limiting the Texans to just 288 total yards.
Jacoby Brissett is proving that it was the right move for the Colts to trade for him. The Colts have scored 20 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. He is really utilizing TE Jack Toyle and star WR T.Y. Hilton, and the two-headed attack of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack is producing week in and week out in the backfield.
Pittsburgh is getting massive love from the betting public and oddsmakers now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati were impressive, but the 20-15 win in Detroit was very fortunate. The Lions amassed 488 total yards on their defense, but went 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone. It was the third-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown.
Sure, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, which is usually worth a couple points to the spread. But bye weeks can come at bad times for teams. And I think that's the case with the Steelers here. They were playing well and had a ton of momentum. Now they've been feeling fat and happy for two weeks straight, and don't be surprised if they come out sluggish. Plus, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye, so Mike Tomlin clearly hasn't been pushing the right buttons.
Indianapolis is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games over the past three seasons. Pittsburgh is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games after covering the spread in four of its last five games coming in. Chuck Pagano is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Indianapolis. The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games. Indianapolis is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|
11-12-17 |
Vikings -1 v. Redskins |
Top |
38-30 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1
Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game. Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015. The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals. The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.
Now we're getting to back a great Minnesota Vikings team that is one of the best squads in the NFC as only 1-point favorites against the Washington Redskins in this spot. The Vikings have gone 6-2 this season. Their two losses came 9-26 in Pittsburgh in Case Keenum's first start, and 7-14 at home to Detroit in a game they should have won by lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Vikings have been rolling since.
Indeed, they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since. They beat the Bears 20-17 on the road, came back home and clocked Green Bay 23-10 as 3-point dogs, thumped Baltimore 24-16 as 5-point home favorites, and won 33-16 in London over Cleveland as 11-point favorites.
This isn't a fluky 6-2 start, either. The Vikings have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season. They are averaging 358 yards per game offensively and giving up only 282 yards per game defensively with one of the top stop units in the NFL. They are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game, which is one of the best yardage differentials in the NFL.
The Redskins are in a tough spot here. They had to travel all the way out West to face the Seahawks last week, and actually pulled off the 17-14 upset as 8-point dogs. Now they had to travel clear back East. And that win was about as fluky as you'll ever see. The Redskins only managed 244 total yards while giving up 437, getting outgained by 193 yards by the Seahawks. Seattle kicker Blair Walsh went 0-3 on field goals, hooking all three to the left.
A big reason I was on Seattle last week was because Washington's injury report was massive. The Redskins were without four starters on the offensive line, several starters in their defensive front 7, plus leading receiver Jamison Crowder. Surely, the Redskins will get back a few players this week, but the fact of the matter is that their injury report couldn't be much worse right now. They aren't going to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against an elite team like the Vikings this week. And Minnesota's nasty defensive line will dominate that banged-up Washington offensive line, which will be the difference in this game.
Minnesota is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Vikings are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win. Essentially, the Vikings have been massively underrated ever since Mike Zimmer took over. The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|
11-12-17 |
Browns +13 v. Lions |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-120 |
108 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13
Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game. Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015. The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals. The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road. Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week. Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries. Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.
While the Browns are off their bye, the Detroit Lions will be working on a short week after beating the Packers 30-17 on the road on Monday Night Football. It was a huge win for them as they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings in Green Bay. They exorcised their demons with that win, and now it would only be human nature for them to suffer an emotional letdown the next week. That's especially the case with the 0-8 Cleveland Browns coming to town. It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites. That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next. We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.
We saw last year that the Browns did not quit down the stretch. They were fighting tooth and nail to try and win games, and I think that will be the case again this season. They have more talent this season and this is still a very young roster, and young teams really benefit from bye weeks. I expect the best effort of the season from the Browns this week.
Cleveland is 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in at least half of their games. And most of their losses have been misleading. The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents, and they have only been outgained by 100 yards or more one time all season. They are only getting outgained by 12.3 yards per game on the season. They have an underrated defense that is giving up just 313 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this year, ranking 9th in total defense and 8th in yards per play defense.
Yards per play average is one of the best stats you can use to handicap how good an NFL team is. Well, Detroit doesn't look very good in either department. The Lions rank 20th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (5.1) and 25th in defensive yards per play (5.6). They are gettng outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season. That's not the type of team that should be laying 13 points to anyone, especially a team like the Browns off their bye week. The Browns are getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play for comparison's sake.
Detroit is 28-51 ATS in its last 79 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit road win. Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. The value on the winless Browns is simply too good to pass up this week in this situation. Take the Browns Sunday.
|
11-11-17 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 211 |
|
96-111 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets UNDER 211
The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be meeting for a third time this season Saturday. These teams are obviously very familiar with one another because of it, and familiarity favors defense more than offense. I think the books have set the ball too high tonight with this 211-point total.
That's especially the case when you look at the first two meetings in this series. Memphis won 98-90 in Houston for just 188 combined points. The Grizzlies also won 103-89 at home over the Rockets for 194 combined points. I'm not sure how oddsmakers can justify this 211-point total.
I think the reason it's inflated is because Houston has gone over the total in five straight. But they have faced some terrible defensive teams during this stretch in Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta and Cleveland. Now they'll be up against the Grizzlies, who rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions.
Surprisingly, Houston isn't pushing the tempo as much this season. The Rockets rank 15th in the NBA in pace at 101.1 possessions per game, which is right int he middle of the pack. Memphis ranks tied for 29th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game, still preferring to run at a snail's pace with their grit 'n grind mentality.
Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 home games vs. division opponents. The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Grizzlies last 21 when playing on 3 or more days' rest. The UNDER is 13-6 in Rockets last 19 Saturday games. The UNDER is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings in Houston, and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Kentucky v. Vanderbilt -2.5 |
Top |
44-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
58 h 33 m |
Show
|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores sit at 4-5 on the season and in need of two wins in their final three games to make a bowl game. They still have home games against Kentucky and Missouri, as well as a trip to Tennessee to close out the season, so the outlook is very good for the Commodores. Look for a big effort from them this week.
Vanderbilt is 4-0 in non-conference play and 0-5 in SEC play, so it will also be motivated for its first conference win. But this has been a brutal schedule as the Commodores have already had to face Alabama and Georgia at home, as well as Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road. So this game against Kentucky at home is their most winnable SEC game yet, and I look for them to take advantage.
Kentucky is 6-3 this season, but it's a bit of a fraudulent 6-3. All six wins have come by 11 points or less, including four by 7 or fewer, so the Wildcats have simply had good fortune in close games. They are getting too much respect from oddsmakes because they have the better record here, but I don't think they are the better team at all. They have only had to play three road games all season, and one resulted in a 7-45 loss at Mississippi State.
This is an awful spot for the Wildcats. Once they opened 6-2 they relaxed and lost at home 34-37 to an Ole Miss team that is in turmoil right now and playing a backup quarterback. Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against No. 1 ranked Georgia. I think they'll be looking ahead to that game and won't give Vanderbilt the focus and attention they deserve this week.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. Kentucky hasn't won at Vanderbilt since 2009, while the Commodores have gone 3-0 in their last three home meetings with the Wildcats, winning by 4, 16 and 30 points. The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Kentucky is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. Kentucky is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons. The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Notre Dame v. DePaul +9 |
|
72-58 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +9
The DePaul Blue Demons will be opening their brand new $173 million Wintrust Arena in Chicago. They want to prove that this is a basketball program on the rise, and they want to end a nine-game losing streak to Notre Dame in their 105th head-to-head meeting.
"We all obviously want to perform well," DePaul junior guard Eli Cain said in the Chicago Sun-Times. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real. It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal."
Cain (15.6 ppg, 42% 3-pointers last year) is one of four returning starters for the Blue Demons. Also back is Brandon Cyrus (6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Tre'Darius McCallum (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Joe Hanel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg). They add in three nice transfers led by sophomore guard Austin Grandstaff, who was previously at Ohio State and Oklahoma.
Max Strus was a Division II All-American guard at Lewis University and scored 52 points in one game last year on 12-of-14 3-point shooting. 6-11 senior center Marin Maric averaged 14.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg at Northern Illinoi last season. The future is very bright in Chicago for the Blue Demons, and they should be one of the most improved teams in the country after going just 9-23 last year.
Notre Dame comes in a bit overvalued as the No. 14 ranked team in the country. They bring back Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell, who were two key pieces on a 26-10 team last year. But they also lose two key players in VJ Beachum (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and Steve Vasturia (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg). I expect them to take a step back this season.
I think asking the Fighting Irish to go on the road in their opener and win by double-digits to beat us against a vastly improved DePaul team busting out their new arena is asking too much. Take DePaul Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Georgia v. Auburn +3 |
|
17-40 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* Georgia/Auburn CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Auburn +3
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 10 ranked team in the country right now despite having two losses. That's because neither loss was bad as they both came on the road to fellow ranked opponents Clemson and LSU. They only lost 14-6 at Clemson in the opener, and blew a 20-0 lead to lose 23-27 at LSU. All seven of their wins have come by 14 points or more, including home wins over Mississippi State (49-10) and Ole Miss (44-23), as well as road wins over Missouri (51-14), Arkansas (52-20) and Texas A&M (42-27).
The SEC is the only conference that could get a team with two losses to the four-team playoff. And Auburn is a very strong candidate to be that team, because they are going to have a chance to pick up three huge wins down the stretch. They host Georgia this week and then host Alabama in their regular season finale. If they can win those two games, they would get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship. That would give them three straight wins against Top 10 opponents, and the playoff committee wouldn't be able to keep them out. So the Tigers still have everything to play for and these are must-win games from here on out.
Georgia, on the other hand, is 9-0 on the season. The Bulldogs could afford to lose this game to Auburn and still make the four-team playoff if they beat the SEC West champ in the SEC Championship Game. And with that No. 1 ranking in the playoffs right now comes added pressure and expectations that I don't think the Bulldogs can live up to. I faded them last week and took South Carolina +25.5 in a comfortable cover with a 10-24 loss at Georgia. And now the Bulldogs are favored by a field goal on the road against an Auburn team that I believe is close to their equal. But the 9-0 record and No. 1 ranking has Georgia overvalued, while the 7-2 record and two narrow losses has Auburn undervalued right now.
The numbers also show that these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Georgia is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.9 points per game and outgaining them by 192 yards per game and 2.6 per play. Auburn is outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game and outgaining them by 158 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play. And it's worth noting that Georgia has played five home games and only three true road games, while Auburn has played five true road games and only four home games. The 20-19 win at Notre Dame was impressive, but Auburn is every bit as good as Notre Dame. The two other two road wins came at Tennessee and Vanderbilt, two of the worst teams in the SEC.
Auburn wants revenge from three straight losses to Georgia, including two by a touchdown or less the past two seasons. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons. Auburn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game. I think the Tigers pull off the 'upset' here at Jordan-Hare Stadium this afternoon. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +3 |
Top |
22-28 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 54 m |
Show
|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +3
Virginia Tech's most important game was last week in a showdown at Miami with the Coastal Division title essentially on the line. The Hokies laid a complete egg and were never really even competitive, losing 28-10 while getting outgained by 130 yards. That was the type of dream-crushing loss that will be hard for them to get back up off the mat from. Look for the Hokies to be flat against Georgia Tech this week.
The Yellow Jackets are just 4-4 on the season and need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible. They still have to play Georgia in the season finale, so their two most winnable games are this week against Virginia Tech and next week at Duke. Look for them to be treating this like a must-win and for them to put a big effort forth here.
Georgia Tech is much better than that 4-4 record would indicate. The Yellow Jackets have outgained six of their eight opponents. But they have suffered 3 losses by 1, 1 and 4 points, which is how close they are to being 7-1 right now. The only exception was a 14-point loss at Clemson where the Tigers were coming off a bye and a loss to Syracuse, so it was an awful spot, and the Yellow Jackets were still competitive in that 10-24 defeat as 14-point dogs.
The Yellow Jackets have been a thorn in Virginia Tech's side in recent seasons. In fact, the Yellow Jackets have only lost to the Hokies by more than a field goal one time in the last seven meetings. The Yellow Jackets pulled off two outright upsets during this five-year stretch, including last season's 30-20 road win as 14-point underdogs. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The one constant for Georgia Tech has been its dominant at home this season. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game in the process. This team has been an undervalued commodity for two straight seasons, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. I expect the Yellow Jackets to win this game outright. Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Michigan State +16.5 v. Ohio State |
|
3-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
54 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* Michigan State/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +16.5
The Michigan State Spartans just cannot get any respect from oddsmakers despite the season they are having. They are 7-2 and in prime position to win the Big Ten. They have outgained eight of their nine opponents, and even outgained Notre Dame by 141 yards in misleading 18-38 loss. Their other loss came in triple-overtime at Northwestern 31-38 in a game where they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.
The only game the Spartans were outgained in all season was their 14-10 win at Michigan in which they were outgained by only 48 yards. Just looking at the numbers, it's easy to see that Michigan State is an elite team. They are outgaining their opponents by 99 yards per game on the season.
The Spartans are always one of the best teams in the country to bet in the underdog role. Indeed, the Spartans have gone 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 14 OUTRIGHT UPSETS, including outright upsets against both Penn State and Michigan as double-digit underdogs this season.
Mark Dantonio has had Urban Meyer's number in recent seasons. They have split the last six meetings 3-3 with the Spartans going 4-2 ATS in those games. They were 20.5-point home dogs last year and only lost 17-16. They pulled the 17-14 upset as 14.5-point road dogs in 2015. They only lost by 12 at home in 2014, upset the Buckeyes 34-24 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2013, only lost 17-16 in 2012, and won 10-7 as 3-point road dogs in 2011. As you can see, each of the last six meetings were decided by 12 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.
I question Ohio State's motivation this week after a crushing 55-24 loss at Iowa last week as 21-point favorites. They failed to cover the spread by 52 points. And now they're being asked to lay over two touchdowns to a better Michigan State team that pretty much handled Iowa. And Ohio State has not played well in all three of its step up against against Oklahoma, Penn State and Iowa. They lost two of those three, and needed a huge comeback in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 at home.
With two losses on the season now, the Buckeyes will not be going to the four-team playoff. That was their goal coming into the season, and now that goal is shot. I just don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to beat Michigan State, let alone beat the Spartans by more than two touchdowns.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after having won four out of their last five games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Michigan State Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Rutgers +31 v. Penn State |
Top |
6-35 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 35 m |
Show
|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +31
The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back devastating losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. They blew a big lead and lost 39-38 to the Buckeyes two weeks ago. They came back the next week and lost on a last-second field goal to Michigan State 24-27.
I really question how they'll bounce back mentally knowing that their dreams of winning the Big Ten and a national title are now crushed. Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 31 points to an upstart Rutgers team that will be excited to play a nationally ranked foe. I have no question the Scarlet Knights will be the more motivated team and will out-hit the Nittany Lions this week.
Clearly Penn State's defense can be moved on. The Nittany Lions gave up 529 total yards to Ohio State and 474 to Michigan State. Rutgers should find enough success on the ground and through the air to put up a couple touchdowns or more, which is all they'll need to cover this lofty number because their defense is underrated.
Rutgers is feeling good after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Scarlet Knights pulled the 35-24 upset at Illinois, upset Purdue 14-12 as 7.5-point home dogs, lost by 21 at Michigan as 21.5-point dogs, and upset Maryland 31-24 at home as 3-point dogs. This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.
This Rutgers defense is giving up just 24.9 points and 394 total yards per game this season. That's where the biggest improvement has come from this team. And the offense is taking care of the football, which will be key to keeping this game close against Penn State. The Scarlet Knights have only committed two total turnovers in their last three games combined.
Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons, only winning 25.4 to 25.1 on average in this spot. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons. Penn State is 0-8 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three years. These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Rutgers.
James Franklin has been a front-runner when things have gone good, but he hasn't had that same magic touch when things are going bad. I look for them to continue to go bad for Penn State this week off those two crushing losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
NC State v. Boston College +3 |
|
17-14 |
Push |
0 |
54 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3
The turnaround at Boston College this season has been one of the best stories in all of college football. They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won four of their last five with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech. And this team just keeps getting better and better as their last three performances were the most eye-opening.
Boston College won 45-42 at Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs. They matched the Cardinals score for score and racked up 555 total yards in the win. They then went on the road and beat Virginia 41-10 as 7-point underdogs. They amassed 512 total yards while limiting the Cavaliers to 247, outgaining them by 265 yards. Then they crushed Florida State 35-3 as 6-point home dogs, limiting the Seminoles to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers.
Now the Eagles have had a bye week to get ready for NC State. They will be the fresher, more prepared team and this couldn't be a worse spot for the NC State Wolfpack.
Two weeks ago, NC State went into Notre Dame and lost 35-14. That loss really hurt any chances of winning a national title. But the ACC was still up for grabs against Clemson last week. The Wolfpack fought extremely hard, but the Tigers won that game 38-31 and simply made more plays down the stretch. They had the Clemson game circled all offseason after losing in overtime to them last year.
Now, with that loss comes the realization that winning the ACC is no longer an option, and I think the Wolfpack will find it hard to get back up off the mat this week in time to face Boston College. I also question how much NC State has left in the tank after playing those two physical shootouts, especially defensively. They gave up 318 rushing yards to Notre Dame and 224 to Clemson.
Now they have to face an Eagles team that is averaging 40 points per game in their last three while putting up 243.8 rushing yards per game in their last five. Freshman quarterback Anthony Brown has been virtually unstoppable, and the bye week will only help him get better and build off of what he has been doing in recent weeks. And this BC defense is still one of the better units in the conference, giving up just 24.8 points, 398 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season, including 24.3, 384.5 and 5.3 in ACC play.
Boston College has had NC State's number in recent seasons, too. The Eagles are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings, including their 21-14 upset road win as 16-point dogs last year. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston College.
NC State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Plays against road favorites (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Boston College Saturday.
|
11-11-17 |
Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +7 |
|
49-42 |
Push |
0 |
54 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +7
2017 was the first time in a long time that the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wasn't played in the final week of the regular season. The Big 12 made the switch and moved the game up this year with the thought that it would be possible that these teams who have to play two weeks in a row in the Big 12 Championship if they didn't move it. It's the first year of the Big 12 Championship since the conference dropped down to 10 teams.
It was a wildly entertaining Bedlam Series with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State 62-52. The Cowboys had the ball with a chance to win at the end, but the Sooners got a rare stop and tacked on a meaningless touchdown in the closing seconds when they could have just ran out the clock. It was kind of the De Facto title game with the loser eliminated from Big 12 title contention.
Now I really question Oklahoma State's motivation. This is a team with not only Big 12 Championship hopes, but also national title hopes coming into the season. But after losing to both TCU and Oklahoma at home, those dreams are crushed now. I think the Cowboys fail to get back up off the mat this week against Iowa State.
Speaking of Oklahoma and TCU, those are two common opponents of Iowa State. The Cyclones beat the Sooners 38-31 on the road, and the Horned Frogs 14-7 at home. The Cowboys lost to both by double-digits at home. And because the Cyclones won both those games, they have the tiebreaker over those two teams. So if they win out, they will be going to the Big 12 Championship.
That's a very realistic possibility because after playing Oklahoma State at home this week, the Cyclones have very winnable games against both Baylor and Kansas State to close out the season. So I have no doubt the Cyclones are going to be highly motivated in this game given their season outlook and what they can still accomplish.
The Cyclones lost to Texas 17-7 earlier this season, and then made the switch at quarterback. They have been rolling since. After beating TCU, they did lost 20-16 at West Virginia last week. It was a clear letdown spot for them. They didn't show up in the first half and trailed 20-0 in that game. But they showed tremendous fight and actually had a chance to win it in the end, shutting out the Mountaineers the rest of the way but falling just short by a 16-20 final.
The Cyclones have the second-best defense in the Big 12 behind only TCU. They are giving up just 14.7 points, 349.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in Big 12 play. Compare that to Oklahoma State, which is giving up 34.2 points, 442.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play in Big 12 action, and you can see which team has the better defense here, and it's not even close. And we're getting a full touchdown with the better defense, the more motivated team, and the home team here. It's a tremendous value.
Oklahoma State does have a high-powered offense, but that offense may take a hit this week if they are without leading receiver James Washington, who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma. Washington has caught 52 balls for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 21.8 yards per reception. And Iowa State's 3-3-5 defensive scheme has mystified the Big 12 this season as they aren't allowing big plays and keeping everything in front of them. That scheme matches up very well with the Cowboys, who rely almost exclusively on the deep ball to try and move the ball through the air.
Iowa State wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma State, including two narrow losses the past two seasons. The Cyclones lost 35-31 at home as 11.5-point dogs in 2015 after blowing a 31-21 lead in the fourth quarter. They lost 31-38 on the road as 14-point dogs last year, again blowing a 31-24 lead in the fourth quarter. I think they get their revenge this year and likely pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.
The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on a grass field. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Plays against road favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992. I don't think the Cowboys even show up this week after losing to Oklahoma. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|
11-10-17 |
Heat v. Jazz UNDER 195 |
|
84-74 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz UNDER 195
The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are two of the most defensive-minded teams in the NBA. They both have two Defensive Player of the Year candidates at center with Hassan Whiteside for the Heat and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz. Points will be hard to come by in this one folks.
Utah ranks 25th in the NBA in pace at 98.7 possessions per game. Miami is 17th in pace at 100.5 possessions per game. Utah ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.0 points per 100 possessions. But Utah is just 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, while MIami is 23rd at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.
Miami's defensive efficiency numbers (17th, 103.9) are misleading. Whiteside has missed five games for the Heat this season. But since he has returned, they have been dominant on the defensive end. They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last five and an average of just 99.8 points and 41.3% shooting during this stretch.
Miami is 42-23 UNDER as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 road games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six games playing on two days' rest. Utah and Miami have combined for 195 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
11-10-17 |
Iowa State v. Missouri -4 |
Top |
59-74 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 48 m |
Show
|
20* 2017 College Hoops Season Opener on Missouri -4
This is the perfect storm. I want to fade Iowa State because of all they lost in the offseason, and I want to back Missouri because of all they bring back and gained in the offseason. Iowa State is a clear 'sell' team, while Missouri is a clear 'buy' team.
The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg). Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg). They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.
Missouri is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin. The Tigers return four starters in Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg, 4.4 apg), Jordan Geist (7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They have a ton or returning experience, but it's the newcomers they have that has me excited about this team.
Nine days after Missouri hired Martin, the top prospect in the 2017 class, Michael Porter Jr., pledged to the Tigers. Porter's father, Michael Sr., is on Martin's staff. Guard Blake Harris signed with Missouri the next day, and former Illinois commit Jeremiah Tilman, a four-star prospect, was inked a month later. In August, Jontay Porter made it official and reclassified to 2017 to join his brother and gave the Tigers another big man and five-start prospect to add to the mix. Those four joined Texas guard C.J. Roberts and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson as Missouri's influx of talent.
This is a pretty cheap price to lay for Missouri with all of this talent in their home opener against a rebuilding team in Iowa State. You won't find this kind of value on them as the season moves along and the betting public realizes how good this team is. But because they went 8-24 last year, they are flying under the radar. Bet Missouri Friday.
|
11-10-17 |
Temple v. Cincinnati +3 |
Top |
35-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
67 h 48 m |
Show
|
20* Temple/Cincinnati AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bearcats are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate. First-year head coach Luke Fickell has done a tremendous job of making this team competitive. And I certainly like the outlook of this team moving forward from a mental standpoint.
The Bearcats realize that getting to a bowl game is still a great possibility. That's because after hosting Temple on Friday, they finish the season with two games against the two worst teams in the AAC in East Carolina and Connecticut. They have been through the gauntlet of their AAC schedule, already facing Navy, UCF, South Florida, SMU and Tulane. Temple has already faced both ECU and UConn, actually losing at home to the Huskies 24-28 despite being 10.5-point favorites.
Cincinnati outgained Tulane by 128 yards last week in a very good 17-16 road victory. The game before, the Bearcats outgained SMU by 3 yards but lost 28-31 in overtime. They weren't overmatched by USF and UCF despite the lopsided scores. They were only outgained by 124 yards by UCF and by 129 yards by USF. They were only outgained by 17 yards by Marshall in another misleading final the game before. They only lost 32-42 at Navy the game before, and beat Miami Ohio 21-17 on the road the week before. So they have essentially been competitive in seven straight games, at least from a statistical standpoint.
This is kind of a sandwich spot for Temple. The Owls are coming off a huge 34-26 upset home win over Navy last week, and now they have a home game on deck against undefeated and nationally ranked UCF next week. Don't be surprised if the Owls are looking ahead to that game, and feeling a little too good about their win against Navy to give Cincinnati the attention it deserves this week.
The Owls have been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-3 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Of course, their 34-10 win at East Carolina is making their numbers look better than they really are. They lost 16-49 at Notre Dame, 7-43 at USF and 28-31 at Army.
Plays on home teams (CINCINNATI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games off a win. The Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|
11-09-17 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5 |
Top |
22-16 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 15 m |
Show
|
20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5
This is the 'game of the year' for the Arizona Cardinals. Sitting at 4-4 on the season, they trail the 5-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams within their own division. So if they want any shot of making the playoffs, they have to win this game Thursday night. That's why I'm expecting a big effort from them here.
I also like the fact that the Cardinals are the fresher team. They had their bye two weeks ago, then didn't need to exert much effort to dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 20-10. And playing on a short week in these Thursday night games is a big advantage for home teams. They had the shorter trip from Santa Clara to Arizona, while Seattle is going to have the much further flight.
The Cardinals are also the healthier team. Yes, they had two key injuries to David Johnson and Carson Palmer, but aside from those they are relatively healthy. And the Palmer loss clearly isn't as big as most think. They weren't playing all that great offensively with him before he got hurt, and Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians favorite who is one of the better backups in the NFL. And Adrian Peterson has shown he has plenty left in the tank, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, including 159 against the 49ers last week.
Conversely, Seattle's injury report looks awful. Both Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane were missing in the secondary last week, and the Redskins went 70 yards for the game-winning drive in a 17-14 upset victory over the Seahawks in the closing seconds last week. Other key defenders missing include Sheldon Richardson, DJ Alexander, Marcus Smith and Cliff Avril. And that was an awful loss to the Redskins considering they were missing four starters on the offensive line and several other key players elsewhere.
Offensively, the Seahawks could be without WR Tyler Lockett, who injured his shoulder. They also have key injuries in the backfield with Eddy Lacy and C.J. Prosise unlikely to be available. Russell Wilson is the team's leading rusher at 34 yards per game this season. And their offensive line played terrible against a banged-up Washington defense as Wilson was running for his life the entire game. They only managed 14 points on that soft Washington defense, and have been held to 16 or fewer in four of their eight games this year.
Arizona had had Seattle's number the past two seasons. The Cardinals are 2-1-1 straight up in the last four meetings. Arizona won 34-31 in Seattle as 9-point dogs last year. That made up for their 6-6 tie at home in which they dominated the Seahawks but could only get a tie. The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks 443 to 257 in that tie game.
Arizona is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 home games vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game. Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.
|
11-09-17 |
Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 |
|
113-117 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 228
The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers should play in a highly entertaining shootout tonight. They did in both meetings last season with the home team winning both. Cleveland won 128-120 for 248 combined points, while Houston won 117-112 for 229 combined points.
The Rockets lost Patrick Beverly, their best defender, and have become even more of an offensive juggernaut this season while taking a step back defensively. Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.
That's bad news for Cleveland, which ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions. But the Cavaliers also remain an offensive juggernaut, ranking 2nd in efficiency while scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions. And both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.
The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games overall, combining with their opponents for 231, 252, 232 and 243 points in those four games. That trend continues tonight as this game gets up and OVER the total. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|
11-08-17 |
Wolves +11 v. Warriors |
Top |
101-125 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11
The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight. I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.
The Timberwolves are improving rapidly. It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out. They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.
The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games. But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again. They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.
Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.
|
11-08-17 |
Lakers v. Celtics OVER 211 |
|
96-107 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Celtics/Lakers ESPN Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 211
The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to push the tempo this season. They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.3 possessions per game. They are starting to gel offensively, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
The Lakers are averaging 113.5 points per game in their last four. But they are giving up 107.3 points per game on the season, including 113.0 points per game on the road. "The chemistry's building," Lonzo Ball said Monday. "We're playing a lot faster, and in half-court we're cutting a lot harder. Guys are knowing where people are at now. It's getting a lot easier."
Now they're up against a young Celtics team that is also firing on all cylinders offensively right now. The Celtics have scored 101 or more points in each of their last five games. They have won nine in a row coming in and are averaging 107.7 points per game at home.
Boston is 12-0 OVER in home games after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 10-1 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread over the past two seasons. The OVER is 11-5 in Lakers last 16 road games. The OVER is 16-5-1 in Celtics last 22 home games. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|
11-08-17 |
Toledo -3.5 v. Ohio |
|
10-38 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 49 m |
Show
|
15* Toledo/Ohio MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Toledo -3.5
At 8-1 on the season and just outside the Top 25, the Toledo Rockets feel like they are still very much alive to be that Group of 5 team invited to a big bowl game. They trail both UCF and Memphis, but only slightly, and both of those teams have some big games upcoming.
Toledo will be favored in the rest of its games and has an excellent shot of finishing 12-1 if it wins the MAC Title game. With such big goals still in front of them, I expect a big effort from the Rockets here despite the fact that they beat Northern Illinois last week and likely locked up their bid into the MAC Championship. They want more.
Ohio, on the other hand, is 4-1 in MAC play leading 4-2 Akron by a half a game after the Zips lost last night to Miami Ohio. I was on Miami Ohio in that game knowing that Akron had essentially nothing to play for. That's because Akron hosts Ohio next week in what will essentially decide the MAC East champion. And it's also the reason this game essentially means nothing to Ohio. A game against Akron next week is the more important one as it will decide who plays Toledo at Ford Field in the MAC Title game.
Motivation aside, I strongly believe Toledo is the better football team either way. The Rockets' only loss this season came on the road to unbeaten Miami. Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits. They have played the tougher schedule and continue to be underrated week in and week out.
Conversely, Ohio has benefited from an extremely soft schedule. In fact, the Bobcats have played the 107th-toughest schedule of 130 teams in the country. Their only real test in non-conference play was at Purdue, and they failed miserably in a 21-44 loss. They also lost at home to Central Michigan 23-26, a team that Toledo beat going away 30-10 on the road.
These teams are pretty evenly matched defensively, but Toledo has the huge edge on offense. The Rockets are averaging 521 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season. They have tremendous balance, rushing for 224 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 9.8 per attempt. Ohio is averaging 424 yards per game and 6.2 per play.
In conference play alone, Toledo is averaging 521 yards per game and 7.6 per play, and giving up 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play, outgaining MAC opponents by 193 yards per game and 2.9 per play. Ohio is averaging 416 yards per game and 6.0 per play and giving up 340 yards per game and 4.7 per play in MAC action, only outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.3 per play.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Bet Toledo Wednesday.
|
11-07-17 |
Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5 |
Top |
14-24 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* Akron/Miami Ohio MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -6.5
It's now or never for the Miami Ohio Redhawks. Sitting at 3-6 on the season, they will need to win out to make it to a bowl game for a second consecutive season. They haven't had the same magic this year they did last year when they opened 0-6 and went 6-0 down the stretch.
But the Redhawks are in a similar position here and know they've done it before. Plus, the schedule ahead is very doable. After playing Akron this week, they get 3-6 Eastern Michigan at home next week and 2-7 Ball State on the road. They'll be favored in their final three games, so getting to 6-6 is very doable. Look for them to have a positive mindset moving forward because of it.
Akron, on the other hand, is going to be in an awful spot mentally. The MAC East is down to two teams right now in Ohio and Akron. Both are 4-1, while their next closest pursuers are 2-3 within the conference. And who does Akron play next week? Ohio. So that game next week will decide who wins the East division and makes it to the MAC Championship at Ford Field. The Zips will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't be focused this week knowing this game means absolutely nothing to their title hopes.
Akron is a fraudulent 5-4 this season. The Zips are only averaging 332 yards per game and 5.2 per play offensively, while giving up 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play defensively. So they are getting outgained by 112 yards per game on the season, which isn't the sign of a team that would be 5-4 right now.
Akron has actually been outgained in seven of its nine games this season. The only two exceptions were against the worst two teams they played in FCS Arkansas Pine Bluff and awful Ball State, which they only outgained by 7 yards in a misleading 31-3 final. Ball State has been getting blown out by everyone here of late.
The Zips are 4-1 in MAC play, but they were outgained in four of those five games. They wree outgianed by 15 yards by Ball State in their 34-23 road victory. They were outgained by 211 yards in their 14-13 road win at Western Michigan. They were outgained by 293 yards in their 21-48 loss at Toledo. They were also outgained by 87 yards in their 21-20 win over Buffalo. As you can see, two of their four wins came by a single point, and they were misleading finals.
Conversely, Miami Ohio is much better than its 3-6 record would indicate. The Redhawks have outgained seven of their nine opponents this season. They only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards at Notre Dame, which is a pretty good showing when you look at how good Notre Dame has been. They were also outgained by 70 yards by Cincinnati.
Despite being 2-3 in MAC play, Miami Ohio has actually outgained all five of its MAC opponents. The Redhawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense in MAC play and giving up only 5.5 yards per play on defense in MAC action. They are outgaining MAC opponents by 49.2 yards per game. Compare that to Akron, which is getting outgained by 119.8 yards per game in MAC play, and it's pretty easy to see which is the better team tonight.
It's worth noting that Akron lost leading rusher Warren Ball to a season-ending ankle injury recently. They were already struggling to run the ball, averaging just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. Ball averages 4.4 yards per carry on the season, and not having him in there will make them very one-dimensional the rest of the way. The Redhawks have been good against the pass this season, giving up just 53.5% completions and 203 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
The Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game. The Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Plays on a home team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Chuck Martin is 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season as the coach of the Redhawks. Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.
|
11-07-17 |
Hornets v. Knicks +2 |
|
113-118 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2
The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets. They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.
Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight. This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center. Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.
The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game. Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup. He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard. The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well. This is an underrated lineup.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings. The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|
11-07-17 |
Mavs +10.5 v. Wizards |
|
113-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5
The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season. They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.
The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS. And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits. They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.
The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday. They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East. It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.
John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game. It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.
The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch. They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already. That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.
"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."
The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall. Take the Mavericks Tuesday.
|
11-06-17 |
Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 |
Top |
80-97 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226
The Miami Heat have been playing much better defense since Hassan Whiteside returned from a five-game absence due to injury. Whiteside has played in the last three games, all of which have gone UNDER the total. He is one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA and doesn't allow many easy buckets in the paint.
The Heat beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points, they lost to the Nuggets 94-95 for 189 combined points, and they beat the Clippers 104-101 for 205 combined points. I think we see a bigger defensive battle than the books are expecting tonight against the Golden State Warriors with this massive 226-point total.
Both meetings between Miami and Golden State went UNDER the total last year. The Warriors won 107-95 at home over the Heat for just 202 combined points. The Heat pulled the upset at home 105-102 for 207 combined points. Asking these teams to get to 227 or more to beat us is asking a lot tonight.
Miami is 13-2 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 28-15 in all Miami road games over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in Heat last five games when playing on zero days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
11-06-17 |
Nets +1.5 v. Suns |
|
98-92 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5
The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns. The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game. Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago. So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here. They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip. Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.
Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday. So they will be the fresher team. The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.
Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days. The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Roll with the Nets Monday.
|
11-06-17 |
Lions v. Packers +3 |
Top |
30-17 |
Loss |
-125 |
91 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3
The Green Bay Packers are in a big spot here needing a win to keep up with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. And I simply trust them to get the job done here as home underdogs more than the Detroit Lions, who shouldn't be laying points on the road.
The spot couldn't be better for the Packers, either. They had their bye last week so have had basically 15 days since their last game. That extra time has allowed Mike McCarthy to install an offense that is more tailored to QB Brett Hundley's skill set. Hundley wasn't very effective in the rain in his first start against the Saints two weeks ago, but he will fare much better with this extra prep time against the Lions this time around.
The Aaron Rodgers injury wasn't the only major one in Green Bay. They have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season. So the bye actually helps that aspect as well as the Packers are expected to expected to have their starting five intact for the first time all season. The Packers plan to use a run-first game plan behind this O-Line and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 346 yards on 62 attempts while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The linemen couldn't be more excited.
“I think we have a lot of confidence in what we bring to the table. It’s a matter of one, being healthy enough to do it, and two, going out there and showing it,” David Bakhtiari said as the Packers returned to work earlier this week. “The nice thing (is), we’re going to have some fun.
“Not having ‘12’ is terrible. But, I mean, everybody knows that you’re not going to be throwing as much. So it’s kind of a chance for us to pin our ears back and attack. At the end of the day, you have ‘12’ out there, you’re going to want to put the ball in the hands of the best player in the league as much as you can. Here, (the thought is), ‘Take a little bit off of Brett.’ That’d be nice.”
McCarthy acknowledged that having the line together for the first time; they've started seven different variations in seven games; will factor into his game plan. “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together week in and week out.”
The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games last season, including playoffs. They were a fraudulent playoff team, and they are fraudulent again this year. They are 3-4 and are lucky to have that record. Reality has set in after a 3-1 start, and they've gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. The Lions rank 22nd in offensive yards per play (4.9) and 22nd in defensive yards per play (5.6), getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play on the season. That's not the sign of a good team, and it's one of the worst yards per play differentials in the NFL, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.
Finally, Detroit never wins at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 home meetings with the Lions. The Lions are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, and they shouldn't be favored here. Detroit is 0-7 ATS after gaining 300 passing yards or more last game over the past three seasons. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Matthew Stafford is now 6-50 in his career against teams with a winning record, going 1-4 thus far against such teams in 2017. Bet the Packers Monday.
|
11-05-17 |
Grizzlies v. Lakers +2.5 |
|
102-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here. They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday. They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.
The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries. Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries. Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.
The Lakers are vastly improved this season. They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS. They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home. Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs. I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.
The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Take the Lakers Sunday.
|
11-05-17 |
Redskins v. Seahawks -7 |
Top |
17-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
135 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7
Injuries have absolutely derailed the Washington Redskins' season. And after back-to-back blowout losses to Philadelphia (24-34) and Dallas (19-33), the future looks very gloomy in Washington. I just don't see how this team is going to field a competent team in the immediate future. Bare with me as I list off all of their injuries.
Jay Gruden named 13 injured players during his news conference Monday, most of whom would be considered questionable this week, and 9 of which are starters. A new one added to list Monday was receiver Jamison Crowder, who injured his hamstring and suffered a lower leg contusion. There's a chance he won't play against Seattle, leaving Washington possibly without its mores productive receiver.
Kirk Cousins' favorite TE Jordan Reed will likely be out Sunday against Seattle, while defensive lineman Matt Ionnidis will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his hand. They are already missing first-round pick Jonathan Allen with a Lisfranc injury. He and Ioanidis provided a strong interior pass rush in the first five games. They also played starting inside linebacker Mason Foster on injured reserve Saturday.
But the cluster injuries on the offensive line are the biggest concern. Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with two sprained ankles, but he didn't even show up on the injury report. And Monday's news of the 13 players came after three Redskins starting offensive linemen were inactive for Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
"We only have seven guys that we can put inactive. That's the major issue that we have right now," Gruden said. "We have to try to get six of those guys up -- at least -- somehow."
The situation is bad enough that Gruden said if the Redskins had to practice Tuesday, he wasn't sure who would line up at left tackler. Starter Trend Williams missed last week and may try to practice. His backup, Ty Nsekhe, also might try to practice but he's been out since Week 2 with a core muscle injury. And Ksekhe's backup, T.J. Clemmings, sprained an ankle Sunday and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter.
Rookie Tyler Catalina finished Sunday's game at left tackle after starting at right guard before. Standout guard Brandon Scherff is still recovering from a sprained MCL, so Gruden needs Catalina at that position. Gruden is hoping that Scherff can increase his activity this week.
The Redskins have only four healthy defensive linemen, so they will have to add another for at least this week. Two of their four safeties are injured in rookie starter Montae Nickolson (shoulder) and backup Stefan McClure (hamstring). Starting corner Bashaud Breeland (knee/groin), who was inactive against the Cowboys, is now listed as day-to-day.
"You try to prepare for that with your depth in training camp and obviously your practice squad guys, you try to get them ready," Gruden said. "But, when you get overwhelmed on the offensive line and now at tight end and safety ... it becomes a challenge. But we're going to keep fighting on and put some guys out there and get them ready to play. That's all we can do."
The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of all these injuries and really put a beat down on the Redskins. This is a Seattle team that is rolling right now, having won four straight coming in while scoring an average of 31.8 points per game. Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind. He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans last week. And now the Seahawks traded for LT Duane Brown, one of the top tackles in the league, to help shore up their offensive line.
The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, going 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games. Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a a game where 60 or more points total were scored. Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off two straight losses to division rivals. The Seahawks are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Seahawks Sunday.
|
11-05-17 |
Heat v. Clippers UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Clippers UNDER 207.5
The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers boast two of the best defensive centers in the NBA. It's Hassan Whiteside of the Heat up against De'Andre Jordan of the Clippers. Both guys are going to make it difficult for the opposition to find easy baskets in the paint in this one.
Whiteside missed five straight games for the Heat, and there were some high-scoring games in there. But he returned for the last two, and it's no surprise we have seen two straight defensive battles from the Heat. They beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points and the Nuggets 95-94 for 189 combined points in those two contests.
The Clippers are coming off three straight overs, but that is the reason this line is inflated. They opened the season with five straight UNDERS, and that's the team that we can expect to see going forward. The Clippers are built on defense with Jordan and elite PG defender Patrick Beverly leading the way.
Thhe UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Heat and Clipppers. They have combined for 200 or fewer points in each of those five meetings. They have averaged just 193 combined points over those five games, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5. We are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER as you can see. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
11-05-17 |
Rams -3 v. Giants |
Top |
51-17 |
Win
|
100 |
104 h 9 m |
Show
|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3
The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, yet nobody wants to give them the respect they deserve. That's why they are consistently undervalued week after week, and I think they continue to be this week as only 3-point road favorites over the hapless New York Giants.
The Rams are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition. Sean McVay has done wonders with the offense as the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense at 30.3 yards per game. Wade Phillips has the defense playing well as they rank 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game. And they are only going to continue to get better on that side of the ball.
The offense has the best weapons it has had in recent memory with Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tavon Austin. That's a big reason Jared Goff has taken the next step this season, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,719 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.7 per attempt. And the Rams have arguably the best set of kickers in the league with punter Johnny Hekker (47.9 AVG) and PK Greg Zuerlein (21 for 22 FGs), which is an underrated aspect of this team.
The Rams are right in the thick of the NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks and have a lot to play for coming out of their bye week. And they lost to the Seahawks (5-2) at home on October 8th, so they do not have the tiebreaker right now. It makes every game more important for them moving forward to get a lead on Seattle. And that 16-10 loss to the Seahawks was about as misleading as it gets.
They outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game and were clearly the better team, but red zone struggles doomed them. They really should be 6-1 right now. They have since responded with 27-17 and 33-0 road beat downs of Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively. The Rams have actually been at their best on the road, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game. They also won in Dallas 35-30 as 5-point underdogs.
While the Rams have been fortunate to get to their bye week without any real significant injuries, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the New York Giants. They are without three of their top four receivers in Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. They have cluster injuries along the offensive line to Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and also key injuries along the defensive line and at linebacker.
Not to mention, they have suspended top cornerback Janoris Jenkins for the second time in three weeks after he failed to return form the bye week on time. This team is an absolute mess right now, and at 1-6 on the season, having nothing but pride to play for moving forward. It's going to be tough for them to find motivation week in and week out to beat teams, and they'll be more concerned with just collecting a paycheck at this point.
The Giants rank 27th in the league in total offense at 296.4 yards per game, and 27th in total defense at 379.4 yards per game allowed. They are getting outgained by a ridiculous 83.0 yards per game, which is the second-worst yardage differential in the NFL. In their two games since losing that trio of receivers to injury in a 22-27 loss to the Chargers, they were outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos and by 248 yards by the Seahawks. That is a sign of things to come for this undermanned, unmotivated squad.
The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week. And my favorite trend backing the Rams is that teams coming back from London who had a bye the next week are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS since 2015 coming out of the bye. We have two teams headed in opposite directions here, and it will show up on the scoreboard this weekend. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|
11-05-17 |
Ravens v. Titans -3 |
|
20-23 |
Push |
0 |
61 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 The Tennessee Titans are undervalued right now because the last time we saw them, they needed overtime to beat the Cleveland Browns in an ugly 9-6 win on the road as 6.5-point favorites. But that was two weeks ago, meaning the Titans have had a bye week to correct some mistakes and get healthy. And boy did they need that bye. Marcus Mariota hasn't been his normal self the past two games as he has been slowed by a hamstring injury. So the bye really helped him, and he should be 100% now while using his biggest weapon, which is his legs. It has also given time for starters in S Johnathan Cyprien, WR Corey Davis and RB DeMarco Murray to return to the lineup from injuries. And TE Delanie Walker is battling a bone bruise in his right ankle, so the bye gave him some extra time as well. The Titans are now one of the more healthier teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have as ugly an injury list as anyone in the NFL. They already have 11 players on injured reserve, 11 more players either questionable or out, and seven players probable with injuries. That's 29 players on the injury report. The key one came to Joe Flacco against Miami last week as he suffered a concussion and was knocked out of the game. Reports said he had blood coming out of his ears. He is going to play this week, but I can't help but think that hit Kiko Alonso put on him is going to be in the back of his mind the entire game. And while the Titans are undervalued right now, the Ravens are overvalued due to their 40-0 win over Miami last week. But that was about as misleading of a final as it gets, and the Dolphins are terrible as it is. The Ravens got two defensive touchdowns to aid their cause. The Ravens scored 40 points despite managing just 295 yards of total offense. I think we see the Ravens team that had lost four of its previous five games coming in, including a 7-44 loss to Jacksonville and a 9-26 loss to Pittsburgh. I think we get the Titans team that has dominated its last two home games. The Titans won 33-27 over Seattle in Week 3, and they won 36-22 over Indianapolis in Week 6 while outgaining them by 176 yards. The Titans will be happy to be home after playing three of their last four on the road. The Titans are 4-3 this season, but 4-1 in all games Marcus Mariota has started and finished. He is the key to this team. The Titans will have a huge edge on offense in this game. They have scored 33 or more points in three of the five games that Mariota has started and finished, and are averaging 26.8 points in those contests. The Ravens have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking 31st in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 31st in offensive yards per play (4.5). And defensively these teams are pretty much a wash with the Ravens allowing 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, and the Titans 329 yards per game and 5.2 per play. So slight advantage for Baltimore on D, but huge advantages for Tennessee on offense, in rest and preparation with the bye, and on the injury front. Baltimore is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more. John Harbaugh is 2-10 ATS in this situation as the coach of Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Fans are finally excited about this team, and the Titans are regaining their home-field advantage that they didn't have in previous years. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|
11-04-17 |
LSU +21.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
137 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +21.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this weekend as 21.5-point home favorites against the LSU Tigers. This is a huge rivalry game that always seems to go down to the wire, and I think it will be closer than most anticipate this weekend.
The 'game of the year' line prior to the season on this game was Alabama -12, and now it's been adjusted 9.5 points to -21.5, showing the kind of value we are getting. Many thought LSU would challenge Alabama for the SEC West title. But since they lost to Troy, everyone has counted them out. That has provided extra line value with the Tigers since that loss.
Indeed, LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since losing to Troy. They won at Florida 17-16 in a game that actually closed LSU -2 but you could find LSU as high as +6.5 earlier in the week, and I got on them at +3.5 in that game and cashed a ticket. I was also on LSU as 7-point home dogs to Auburn in a 27-23 outright win. I did fade LSU against Ole Miss the next week, but they even surprised me and kept it rolling with a 40-24 win as 6.5-point road favorites.
You can bet LSU feels it is still very much alive to win the SEC West. After all, they control their own destiny because if they win out they will be be crowned SEC West champs. So this game is even bigger for them than it is for undefeated Alabama. The schedule is very manageable after this with games against Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M, so it's not out of the question if they can pull the upset.
I just like the way this LSU team is trending right now, especially after their best offensive output of the season. The Tigers racked up 40 points and 593 total yards against Ole Miss last time out. Derrius Guice was banged up earlier this season and actually missed the Troy game. But he's back to the form that he closed last season with. Guice rushed for 276 yards and a score against Ole Miss. And Danny Etling isn't great, but he doesn't make the big mistake with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he's averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt. Avoiding turnovers will be key against Alabama.
I think the biggest reason the Crimson Tide are so overrated right now is because they couldn't have played a much softer SEC schedule up to this point. Their five SEC games have come against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Tennessee. I guess you would say Texas A&M is the best team they've faced, and they only won that game 27-19 as 25-point favorites. And the early 24-7 win over Florida State clearly doesn't look as good now as it did at the time. LSU is a clear step up in class this week and the best team the Crimson Tide have faced by far.
You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Alabama beat LSU by more than 21 points. That's a span of 15 meetings, giving us a perfect 15-0 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 21.5-point spread. This is simply way too many points to be giving LSU in this rivalry game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
Texas +7 v. TCU |
|
7-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
127 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* Texas/TCU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +7
Tom Herman is now 14-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach and offensive coordinator dating back to his time at Ohio State with 11 outright upsets. He has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the role with the Longhorns this season, covering as 16.5-point dogs in a 24-27 OT loss at USC, covering as 8.5-point dogs in a 24-29 loss to Oklahoma, and covering as 7-point dogs in a 10-13 home loss to Oklahoma State.
Now the Longhorns are getting a full touchdown once again on the road against TCU this week. I think there's tremendous value with them here as this team has improved as much as anyone since the Week 1 upset loss to Maryland. In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. And they have been battle-tested against a brutal schedule, so they will be ready for TCU this week.
They nearly beat USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and I believe all three of those teams are better than TCU. The Horned Frogs have been way overrated due to their 7-0 start to the seaosn, and that showed last week with a 7-14 loss at Iowa State. It was only a matter of time before Kenny Hill lost a game for them because he's simply not that good and he's mistake-prone.
The Horned Frogs' only touchdown last week against the Cyclones came on a kickoff return to start the second half. The offense was shut out, and they committed three costly turnovers, including two interceptions by Hill in the red zone. Now Hill has to go up against the best defense he has faced yet.
This is a Texas defense that continues to improve, allowing just less than 30 points at the end of regulation to every team they've played since Maryland. Sam Darnold and USC only managed 27 points despite going to overtime, Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma were held to 29 points, and Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State were limited to 13 points despite going to overtime. This is a defense that is giving up just 21.0 points per game on the season.
TCU has faced a putrid schedule of opposing defenses up to this point. The Horned Frogs are averaging 37.2 points and 446 yards per game, but that has come against a slate of defenses that allowed 33.9 points and 431 yards per game on the season. The Horned Frogs do have an elite defense, but it's about on par with this Texas stop unit.
The Longhorns continue to improve offensively as they have topped 400 total yards in three of their last four games while averaging 421 yards per game during this stretch against K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor. It was only a matter of time before Herman got this offense hitting its stride, and that appears to be the case now.
Texas is going to have extra motivation for this game after getting blown out by TCU in three consecutive seasons. I think the Horned Frogs are in line for a 'hangover effect' from their 14-7 loss to Iowa State last week that all but killed their chances of making the four-team playoff. So the Longhorns catch them in a good spot and will be the more motivated team to avenge those three consecutive defeats.
TCU is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. The Horned Frogs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Don't be surprised if the Longhorns win this game outright, but we'll gladly take the 7 points for some insurance. Bet Texas Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
Nevada +22 v. Boise State |
|
14-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
64 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +22
It hasn't taken much time for the Boise State Broncos to starting getting love from the betting public and the oddsmakers again. They were a terrible team against the spread for the past one and a half seasons, but they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games and are starting to command respect from the oddsmakers now. I think they are getting too much respect as 22-point home favorites over Nevada this week.
A 24-7 win at BYU isn't impressive. The 31-14 win at San Diego State was a good win, but the Aztecs basically gave that game away with turnovers and special teams miscues. The 24-14 home win over Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites wasn't that impressive, and the 41-14 win at Utah State last time out as 13-point favorites isn't anything to get too excited about, either.
What I am excited about is this Nevada team. It was always going to take some time for Jay Norvell to implement his Air Raid system, but now he has the Wolf Pack firing on all cylinders. They have scored 35, 42 and 42 points in their last three games and have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a result. They beat Hawaii 35-31 as 5.5-point home dogs, only lost 42-44 at Colorado State as 24-point dogs, and lost at home 42-45 to Air Force as 5.5-point dogs.
But unlike Boise State, the Wolf Pack aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers despite their dramatic improvement. And now they are coming off a bye week since that loss to Air Force to hone in things and prepare for this matchup with Boise State. They should put forth another great effort here off their bye and continue making improvements. Plus, I'm sure Norvell has a few tricks up his sleeve that he installed during the bye that will catch Boise State off guard. He has been great at calling trick plays at the perfect times this year.
I think this is a huge lookahead spot for Boise State with a road game at Colorado State next week. The Rams were the preseason favorites to win the Mountain Division and will be the biggest contenders with Boise State. The winner of that game will likely win that side of the conference and advantage to the Mountain West Championship Game. So I don't think Nevada will have Boise State's full attention this week.
Nevada is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Boise State is 0-9 ATS in all home games over the last two years. The Blue Turf isn't the advantage it used to be. The Broncos are only outscoring opponents by an average of 6.3 points per game in those nine home games over the past two seasons. I think this one will be closer than expected as well. The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Boise State. Bet Nevada Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -3 |
Top |
62-52 |
Loss |
-115 |
133 h 1 m |
Show
|
25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3
The Oklahoma Sooners have mostly dominated the Bedlam Series of late, winning four of the last five meetings. However, this is the first year during this stretch that I actually feel Oklahoma State has the better team coming in. And they will take out years of frustration on their 'big brother' this weekend in Stillwater.
The Cowboys have been the best team in the Big 12, and I really don't even think it's close. They have an elite offense that is putting up 44.5 points, 569 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. Mason Rudolph is having a Heisman-worthy season, throwing for 2,866 yards and a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.4 yards per attempt. He has also rushed for seven touchdowns. And the Cowboys aren't one-dimensional as their big, beefy offensive line is getting the job done and paving the way for 199 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.
But the real reason the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the country and better than Oklahoma this season is defense. They have one of the most underrated defenses in the land. The Cowboys only give up 24.4 points, 358 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams who average 31.8 points, 431 yards per game and 5.9 per play. They are holding opponents to 7.4 points, 73 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season.
Those numbers have really shown up in Big 12 play despite facing mostly elite offenses thus far. The Cowboys are allowing 28.6 points, 373.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play in Big 12 play. Compare that to Oklahoma, which is yielding 33.0 points, 449.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big 12 action.
Then you look at who these teams have faced in the Big 12 and it's easy to see that Oklahoma State has gone up against the tougher slate of opposing offenses. They have both played Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas, but Oklahoma State already had to play WVU and TCU, while Oklahoma has played Iowa State and Kansas State instead of WVU and TCU.
The Sooners have been way overvalued in Big 12 play. They are 1-4 ATS as their first four games were decided by 8 points or less against Baylor (49-41), Iowa State (31-38), Texas (29-24) and Kansas State (42-35). And their only cover came last week in misleading 49-27 home win over Texas Tech as 19-point favorites.
Rudolph and company will be able to score at will on an Oklahoma defense that has holes all over the secondary that have been exploited this season. Their two starting cornerbacks are awful. The Sooners are allowing 61.1% completions and 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season. Compare that to Oklahoma State, which only gives up 55.5% completions and 6.4 yards per attempt. The Cowboys have also been better against the run, giving up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, while the Sooners allow 142 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.
And the common opponents show that Oklahoma State is the better team this year. Oklahoma is only outgaining the three common opponents of Oklahoma State by 124 yards per game, while the Cowboys are outgaining those same three foes by 239.4 yards per game.
Last week's 50-39 win in West Virginia resulted in a cover as 9.5-point favorites for the Cowboys, but it was a very misleading final. It was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Mountaineers got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only managed 347 total yards against this stout Cowboys' defense.
The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. Mike Gundy is 37-20 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State. Gundy and company get their revenge this weekend. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
South Carolina +25.5 v. Georgia |
|
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
133 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +25.5
I locked in South Carolina at +25.5. I love it even more now that Georgia came out ranked No. 1 in the initial college football playoff rankings. Now the Bulldogs will be getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they are likely to come out flat against the Gamecocks Saturday. They will also start to feel the pressure of being ranked so highly, which puts an even bigger target on their backs.
But the main reason I like South Carolina this week is because it's also a letdown spot for the Bulldogs off their huge 42-7 win over their biggest rival in the Florida Gators last week. They finally got revenge on the Gators after years of misery against them. But that was a misleading final as the Bulldogs only outgained the Gators by 144 yards. They simply took advantage of huge turnovers and special teams plays.
The Gamecocks have been one of the more underrated teams in college football this season. They have gone 6-2 with a win over NC State. Their two losses came to Kentucky and Texas A&M by 10 points or less. So they have been competitive in every game, and I expect more of the same from them here against Georgia.
Will Muschamp knows how to coach of a defense, and the Gamecocks' defense is the reason why they can be competitive in this game. They are giving up just 20.2 points, 382 yards per game and 5.3 per play this season. They have been stout against the run, giving up just 138 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. And that will be key to stopping a one-dimensional Georgia offense that rushed for 284 yards per game and 6.0 per carry. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Muschamp were teammates in college at Georgia. Smart won't be looking to run up on the score on his former teammate. And it's also worth noting that Georgia has an even bigger game against Auburn on deck, so this is a clear lookahead spot for the Bulldogs.
South Carolina has actually had Georgia's number, winning four of the last seven meetings outright. The Gamecocks have also gone 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. And Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 24 points once in the last 40 meetings dating back to 1974. That makes for a dynamite 39-1 system backing the Gamecocks pertaining to this 25.5-point spread. Roll with South Carolina Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
Grizzlies v. Clippers -5.5 |
|
113-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the season. They are coming off a 21-point beat down of Dallas and are very healthy right now, plus they've had two days' rest to get ready for the Grizzlies.
Memphis started fast but hit the skids due to injuries. The Grizzlies lost to both the Hornets and Magic at home in each of their last two games. Now they are going to have their hands full with one of the best teams they have faced this year in the Clippers.
Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury, though he is supposed to play tonight. Marc Gasol sat out last game and is questionable to return with an ankle injury. Wayne Selden missed last game and is questionable with a quad injury. And JaMychal Green is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. I just don't see how the Grizzlies can be competitive tonight give their current state.
The Clippers have owned the Grizzlies in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. All four of their wins have come by 9 points or more and by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. The Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Take the Clippers Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
Penn State v. Michigan State +9 |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Penn State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +9
It's going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing 38-39 road loss at Ohio State last week. It's the type of loss that can really take a couple weeks for a team to get over. It was basically the De Facto Big Ten Championship Game, and the Nittany Lions lost it.
The way they lost it was even tougher to swallow for the Nittany Lions. They blew a 28-10 lead in that contest. They were actually outscored 19-3 in the fourth quarter, giving up the game-winning touchdown pass with 1:48 left. And Trace McSorley and company went four and out on the next possession. Saquon Barkley didn't even touch the ball on the final possession, and he was seen on the sidelines chewing out his offensive linemen. I just don't like the mental state of this team coming in.
But let's be honest, Ohio State was the better team in that game, and the Nittany Lions were fortunate to even keep it close. The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 246 yards. They racked up 529 total yards on the Penn State defense, while giving up just 283 total yards. They held Barkley and company to just 91 rushing yards on 35 carries, an average of 2.6 per carry. I think that effort really shows how overrated Penn State is.
Now the Nittany Lions are being asked to go on the road off that deflating loss and lay 9 points to an upstart Michigan State team that has been underrated all season. It's also an early start time, so the Nittany Lions could still be sleepwalking through it. This has upset written all over it.
Not to mention, Michigan State is going to want revenge from an embarrassing 12-45 loss in Happy Valley last year. But that was a huge misleading final and a bad Spartans team who actually out-first-downed the Nittany Lions 26-18 in that game. And that was the final game of the regular season with Penn State trying to clinch the Big Ten West, while Michigan State was lacking motivation after already being eliminate from bowl contention. You can bet Mark Dantonio has not forgotten and will be reminding his players all week, not that he even needs to.
Michigan State is 6-2 this season and could easily be 8-0. The two losses were misleading. One was to No. 3 Notre Dame 18-38, and while the score was a blowout, the statistics shows that the Spartans should have won. They actually outgained the Fighting Irish by 141 yards in that game. Then last week in their triple-overtime loss at Northwestern, they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards. They have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season with the only exception coming when they were outgained by 48 yards in their 14-10 road win over Michigan as 13-point dogs.
Penn State doesn't control its own destiny in the Big Ten West now. However, Michigan State actually does and still has plenty to play for. They only have one Big Ten loss, and if they win out they will be crowned Big Ten West champs. That's because if they can beat Penn State this week and Ohio State next week, they would hold the tiebreaker on the Buckeyes. With that kind of outlook, it's going to be much easier for the Spartans to get over their overtime loss to Northwestern last week.
The Spartans are back to having an elite defense this season. They are giving up just 19.6 points per game, 283 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play against opponents that average 28.9 points, 388 yards per game and 5.4 per play. They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points, 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages. And Penn State is 2-12 ATS in its last 12 road games versus excellent defensive teams who give up 285 or fewer yards per game.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.
Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons, so James Franklin hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well. He has been more of a front-runner. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Spartans. Roll with Michigan State Saturday.
|
11-04-17 |
UMass +28 v. Mississippi State |
|
23-34 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UMass +28
This has all the makings of a flat spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. They are coming off a huge 35-14 road win over Texas A&M last week, which was a very misleading final and has the Bulldogs overvalued as it is. And now Mississippi State has its 'game of the year' on deck next week against Alabama, so it's a huge lookahead spot as well.
I just can't see how the Bulldogs are going to get up for this game as they step outside the conference to play the UMass Minutemen. We've seen in the past the Bulldogs fall flat in these non-conference games, most recently getting upset by South Alabama as identical 28-point home favorites last year. All Dan Mullen will be concerned with here is keeping his guys healthy for that game against Alabama next week, not running up the score on the Minutemen.
There's no question UMass is better than its 2-6 record would indicate. The Minutemen actually lost their first six games of the season all by 10 points or less. That includes a 13-17 loss as identical 28-point dogs at Tennessee. And that was when the Vols were still playing well, not the Vols team that we have seen today. And either way it's impressive that they went on the road and nearly pulled off the upset against an SEC opponent.
The Minutemen then had their bye week following those six straight close losses to open the season, and promptly took out their frustration with a 55-20 beat down of Georgia Southern as 8.5-point favorites. They carried that momentum over into an upset 30-27 home win over Appalachian State as 4-point dogs, and App State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt.
The good part about backing UMass is that they have an offense capable of scoring points on this Mississippi State defense. They are putting up 29.9 points and 443 yards per game this season behind a passing attack that is averaging 296 yards per game through the air. The Minutemen have actually outgained five of their eight opponents this season and are outgaining them by an average of 55 yards per game, the sign of a team that is better than 2-6.
I know starting quarterback Andrew Ford is questionable with an injury, but backup Ross Comis has played well in his absence the past two games. He brings a dual-threat element to the offense, rushing for 132 yards and two scores on 35 attempts. He has also thrown for 380 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio. He is capable of handling the job if Ford cannot go and has played a big part in their last two victories over both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.
The Minutemen are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents. They had that 13-17 loss to Tennessee as 28-point dogs earlier this season. In 2016, they also played Mississippi State and only lost 35-47 as 22-point home dogs. They also lost 7-24 at Florida as 36-point dogs last year. In 2014, they lost 31-34 at Vanderbilt as 16-point dogs. In 2013, they lost to Vanderbilt 7-24 as 29-point home dogs. They just have a knack for playing these SEC teams tough, and I'm sure in almost every situation it was a letdown spot for the SEC squad. There is no bigger letdown spot than this one for the Bulldogs with Alabama on deck next week. Take UMass Saturday.
|
11-03-17 |
Heat +5.5 v. Nuggets |
|
94-95 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5
The Miami Heat finally returned to near full strength last time out against the Chicago Bulls. Hassan Whiteside made his return from a five-game absence, and they promptly dispatched the Bulls 97-91. They had lost their three previous games without Whiteside, though two of those went right down to the wire with a 90-96 loss to the Celtics and a 122-125 (OT) loss to the Timberwolves.
I think with Whiteside back now, this team should get back to playing the way they did in the second half of last year. They were one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the second half. And now that they've started the season 0-5-2 ATS, they are grossly undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them. It's time to 'buy low' on the Heat.
And I love the spot here fading the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are coming off a huge 129-111 home win over the Raptors. So they were already going to be in a letdown spot, but now they're also in a lookahead spot with an even bigger game coming up tomorrow against the Golden State Warriors. The Nuggets won't be giving the Heat the full attention that they deserve to be able to cover this lofty 5.5-point spread.
Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Roll with the Heat Friday.
|
11-03-17 |
Cavs v. Wizards OVER 221 |
|
130-122 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 221
The Washington Wizards have been lighting up the scoreboard this season. They are averaging 112.3 points per game while ranking 5th in offensive efficiency. But they are also giving up 108.1 points per game and just allowed 122 to the Phoenix Suns last time out.
The Wizards will have their way with a Cleveland Cavaliers team that has really been struggling on the defensive end. The Cavs allow 111.9 points per game while ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions.
And now the Cavaliers lost their best defender in Tristan Thompson to a 3-4 week calf injury last time out. So that means they are going to have to go even smaller with Jamison Crowder taking Thompson's place. And they have to go small anyways to match up with Washington's elite small-ball starting 5 lineup.
This has the makings of an up-tempo, shootout, and that has been the case the last two times these teams got together. The Cavs beat the Wizards 140-135 in Washington, while the Wizards won 127-115 in Cleveland in their final two meetings of 2016-17.
The OVER is 23-11 in Cavs' last 34 games overall. The OVER is 27-9 in Cavs' last 36 games following a loss. The OVER is 12-2 in Cavs' last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The OVER is 9-2 in Cavs' last 11 Friday games. The OVER is 10-1 in Wizards' last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|
11-03-17 |
Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -9 |
Top |
25-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
87 h 12 m |
Show
|
20* Marshall/FAU C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -9
No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 8 in college football than Florida Atlantic. It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes. But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.
FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener. The other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo. But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in four Conference USA games. I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.
It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites. Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites. They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites. And last week they took down defending C-USA champ Western Kentucky 42-28 on the road as 6-point favorites. The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 83 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 21 points per game.
The reason I'm confident laying this number with the Owls is because their offense cannot be tamed right now. They are averaging 51.7 points, 563.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference action. They have rushed for at least 252 yards in six consecutive games and are averaging 296 rushing yards and 6.3 per carry on the season. And they've made enough big plays in the passing game that opposing teams can't stack eight in the box.
Marshall has played a much weaker schedule than FAU and is overrated right now due to its 6-2 record. The six wins have come against all teams with losing record in Miami Ohio (3-6), Kent State (2-7), Cincinnati (2-6), Charlotte (1-7), Old Dominion (2-6) and Middle Tennessee (3-5). Those six teams are a combined 13-37 on the season.
We saw just last week how overrated the Thundering Herd really are. They lost 30-41 at home to Florida International as 15-point favorites. They have put up good defensive numbers up to this point, but against the two best teams they played in NC State and FIU, they allowed 37 and 41 points, respectively. Now they are up against another offensive juggernaut and won't have the firepower to keep up. The Owls have scored 31 or more points in six straight games.
Marshall is 43-68 ATS in its last 111 road games overall. The Thundering Herd are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games. The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. FAU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning home record. It will be a rowdy home atmosphere for the Owls tonight as fans are excited about what Kiffin is doing and realize that they are a legitimate contender to win Conference USA. Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.
|
11-02-17 |
Bills v. Jets +3.5 |
Top |
21-34 |
Win
|
100 |
65 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +3.5
The New York Jets will be out for revenge from their 21-12 road loss to Buffalo in Week 1. The Jets have improved by leaps and bounds since the opening couple weeks of the season. They have been an undervalued commodity, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They remain undervalued as 3.5-point home dogs to the Bills Thursday.
The Jets won three games in a row over Miami, Jacksonville and Cleveland to start the streak. Then they lost 17-24 as 9-point home dogs to the Patriots in a controversial game where they had a TD overturned and called a touchback on a a fumble through the end zone. Then they blew a 28-14 lead and lost 31-28 to the Dolphins as 3-point road dogs. And last week they gave the Falcons all they could handle, losing 20-25 as 6.5-point home dogs.
The Bills come in overvalued due to their 5-2 record this season. But it may be about as fraudulent of a 5-2 start as you'll find. The Bills have actually been outgained in six of their seven games this season. They are getting outgained by an average of 43.6 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.
Buffalo has been winning with smoke an mirrors thanks to having the No. 1 turnover differential in the NFL at +14. They have only committed 3 turnovers while forcing 17. That type of ratio is not going to last, and they'll regress to the mean in the turnover department moving forward.
The Jets are only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play, which is the sign of an average team. They are gaining 5.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.6 yards per play on defense. Buffalo averages 5.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.5 per play on defense to compare. And yards per play are more indicative of how good a team is.
Josh McCown has revived his career in New York, completing a sweet 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,840 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 7.2 per attempt. He should find plenty of success against a banged-up, poor Buffalo secondary that has allowed three straight 300-yard passers and an average of 341.3 yards per game during this stretch. It has come against the likes of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr.
LeSean McCoy got 33 touches against Oakland last week and won't have much left in the tank working on a short week here with this Thursday night game. McCoy has 38 receptions this season, 18 more than second-place Charles Clay, who is out with an injury. That leaves Jordan Matthews as the next-best receiver for this team with 15 receptions. McCoy is clearly getting run into the ground.
The Jets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss. Buffalo is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games overall. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Jets Thursday.
|
11-02-17 |
Warriors -7 v. Spurs |
|
112-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Golden State -7
We're getting the Golden State Warriors at a discount tonight due to their poor start to the season against the spread. They have been a bigger favorite than this in seven of their eight games thus far. They have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
But they got right with a 141-113 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point road favorites on Monday. They have since had two days off to get ready for the Spurs and build off their best performance of the season thus far. The end of October used to be the traditional start to the NBA season, so head coach Steve Kerr simply acted as if he were back in his playing days when he spoke to his team.
"That looked like us," Kerr said. "I told the guys that tomorrow is Halloween, which means that (Monday) was opening night. Training camp is over, so we're back to being us."
"Our defense and our turnovers have been kind of our Achilles' heel so far," Stephen Curry said. "Scoring the ball hasn't been a problem. It's just the other things we need to do to be a well-rounded team and the team we expect to be. (Against the Clippers), our defensive effort got us to where we wanted to be, and we kind of controlled the game from the start. We took care of the basketball -- we played Warriors basketball, and now we have to sustain it."
San Antonio just lost three straight games on the road to Orlando (87-114), Indiana (94-97) and Boston (94-108). The Spurs are really struggling right now with all of their new faces due to the injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Joffrey Lauvergne. All three will miss this game against tonight, and the Spurs just have no chance of even being competitive against the Warriors without them.
We saw that play out in the playoffs last year. Leonard was injured in the 111-113 Game 1 loss to the Warriors. They were promptly swept as he missed the rest of the series, losing by 36 in Game 2, by 12 in Game 3 and by 14 in Game 4. I see no way this isn't a double-digit victory in the Warriors' favor tonight.
Golden State is 55-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. I like backing them a lot more in this role than the double-digit role they have been so far this season. Roll with the Warriors Thursday.
|
11-02-17 |
Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Toledo |
|
17-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
63 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* NIU/Toledo MAC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +9.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets have played in some epic games over the years. These teams are always fighting for the MAC West title, and that is the case once again in 2017. This game will likely decide the division champ.
The Huskies are 6-1 in their last seven meetings with the Rockets. The only exception was a 31-24 home loss last year in which the Huskies were down to their 3rd string quarterback. But this has been a closely-contested series as five of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. I expect more of the same this year, which is why getting 9.5 points with the Huskies is such a value.
It's hard not to admire what Northern Illinois has done this season. The Huskies are 6-2 on the year with their two losses coming by 3 and 6 points to Boston College (20-23) as 3.5-point dogs and San Diego State (28-34) as 9.5-point road dogs. And they outgained both of those teams in losing efforts. They also picked up an impressive 21-17 road win at Nebraska as 10.5-point dogs.
Toledo is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and covers against suspect MAC teams in Ball State, Akron and Central Michigan. Now they take a step up in class this week against a team they just simply cannot figure out through the years.
I also like the matchup for the Huskies defensively. Northern Illinois has been rock solid on defense, giving up just 18.0 points, 307 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season. Toledo has been running on opponents with ease, averaging 231 rushing yards per game. But that won't be the case tonight against a NIU defense that only gives up 106 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry. And they've faced some elite rushing offenses in BC, SDSU and Nebraska and shut them all down. NIU has also been stiff against the pass, allowing just 53.1% completions and 201 passing yards per game.
The Rockets have been just an average team on defense this year. They are giving up 25.4 points, 363 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 24.2 points, 365 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Rockets will have the edge offensively, but again they haven't seen many defense as stubborn as this Huskies outfit.
NIU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game over the last three seasons. NIU is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Huskies are 34-14-3 ATS in their last 51 road games. The Rockets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Toledo is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games overall. Bet Northern Illinois Thursday.
|
11-01-17 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 205 |
Top |
98-119 |
Loss |
-103 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205
The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers both prefer to play at a slow tempo. The Mavericks rank 28th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game, while the Clippers are 17th at 100 possessions per game.
The Clippers were the top team in defensive efficiency before playing the Warriors last time out, losing 113-141. That skewed all of their numbers. The Clippers had had allowed an average of just 92.4 points per game and no team had shot better than 43% against them until the Warriors hung 141 points and shot 58.4%.
Now the Clippers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder defensively after that awful performance. They'll be up against a Mavericks team that is struggling to find easy buckets. The Mavs rank 23rd in offensive efficiency and are scoring just 98.2 points per game on the season, including 90.3 points per game on the road. And now they may be missing rookie first-round pick Dennis Smith at point guard, who is questionable.
The Clippers are 48-26 UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 23-5 (82.1%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
11-01-17 |
Raptors v. Nuggets -1 |
|
111-129 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -1
The Denver Nuggets are have faced a rough schedule in the early going with five of their first seven games at home. After a 3-4 start, they'll be motivated to get it turned around. They have an excellent chance to do just that as a six-game homestand starts with Wednesday's tilt against the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors are in the midst of a tough road trip of their own and it may start catching up to them sooner rather than later. They have played four straight games out West against the Spurs, Warriors, Lakers and Blazers. After winning their last two, they come into this game overvalued.
Denver is going to want revenge from two losses to the Raptors by a combined 5 points last season. They lost 102-105 on the road, and 111-113 at home. But the Nuggets covered the spread in both games and are now 27-13 ATS in their last 40 meetings with the Raptors. Look for them to have their revenge at home tonight.
The Nuggets are 28-16 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.
|
11-01-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -151 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-151 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -151
The Los Angeles Dodgers showed great resolve in Game 6 and beat the Houston Astros 3-1 to force a Game 7. Now I fully expect them to close this thing out. It feels like it's their time, while the Astros will have plenty more chances in the future with such a young nucleus.
Yu Darvish had been unhittable prior to a bad start against the Astros in Game 3. He had given up just 3 earned runs over 31 innings over his previous five starts for a 0.87 ERA. He had struck out 35 while walking just 2 and allowing only 17 hits in that five-start stretch. Look for him to get back to being that dominant starter for Game 7 tonight.
Lance McCullers hasn't exactly been dominant down the stretch. He is now 1-3 with a 7.08 ERA in his last 10 starts, giving up a whopping 38 earned runs in 48 1/3 innings. I simply don't trust the youngster in this big of a spot tonight. He gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in Game 3.
McCullers is 11-19 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are 32-7 in home games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons. Take the Dodgers in Game 7 Wednesday.
|
11-01-17 |
Central Michigan +6.5 v. Western Michigan |
|
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* CMU/WMU MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +6.5
The Central Michigan Chippewas have their best chance to beat their biggest rivals in the Western Michigan Broncos this year. They have lost three straight to the Broncos in this series, but those were much better WMU teams under PJ Fleck. This 2017 version has been much more vulnerable.
Indeed, Western Michigan is just 5-3 this season. Three of its five wins have come by single-digits with the lone exceptions being blowout wins against FCS foe Wagner and arguably the worst team in college football in Ball State. The Broncos needed overtime to beat both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan, and only beat Idaho by 9 as 17-point home favorites. They also lost to Akron 14-13 at home as 12.5-point favorites.
Now the Broncos lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a season-ending broken collarbone against Eastern Michigan last week. That's a huge loss as he has been one of the best QB's in the MAC, completing 64.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for three scores. Now the Broncos will be turning to true freshman Reece Goddard this week.
Central Michigan is playing well of late. It upset Ohio 26-23 on the road as 10-point dogs, lost to Toledo 10-30 at home, and crushed Ball State 56-9 on the road as 3-point favorites in its last three games. The loss to Toledo isn't so bad because the Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC, and Ohio may be the second-best team, so that win looks really good right now.
Miami transfer Shane Morris has come in and played well for head coach John Bonamego. He has thrown for 1,966 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. Stud receiver Corey Willis is back and healthy now after missing four games earlier this season. He has caught 23 balls for 293 yards and four scores in those four games.
The strength of schedule for both teams has been very comparable. And the numbers suggest that they are pretty evenly-matched teams up to this point. The Chippewas average 5.2 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.2 per play on defense. The Broncos average 5.7 per play on offense, but give up 5.6 per play defensively. So while the Broncos have had the edge on offense up to this point, that won't be the case in this game since they are starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time.
Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games. The Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more yards per game. The Chippewas are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.
|
11-01-17 |
Bucks v. Hornets -3.5 |
|
121-126 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot here Wednesday. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 91-110 at home to the Thunder last night. Now they have to travel to Charlotte and face an upstart Hornets team that has been playing better since getting healthy.
The Hornets were missing several key pieces early in the season, but they are healthy outside of Nic Batum now. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games, beating the Nuggets by 17 and the Magic by 7 at home, while also upsetting the Grizzlies by 5 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.
And you can bet the Hornets will be ready for this game. They have had a day off to get ready for a rematch with the Bucks after losing to them 94-103 in Milwaukee on October 23rd just a week ago. They let that game get away from them in the closing minutes as they actually led most the way. Look for them to avenge that loss tonight. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|
10-31-17 |
Pistons v. Lakers +4.5 |
|
93-113 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 45 m |
Show
|
15* Pistons/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5
The Detroit Pistons have been grossly undervalued up to this point. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their first seven games to start the season. I may be looking to back this team in the near future, but right now is not the time.
The Pistons are now overvalued here laying 4.5 points on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers. They are getting a lot of love now thanks to back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors. Off those two monster wins, this is now a massive letdown spot for the Pistons after beating the defending champs.
The Lakers have lost back-to-back games to the Raptors and Jazz and are not getting much love in the markets because of it. But they have had two days off coming into this game, while the Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, giving the Lakers the advantage in rest and preparation as well.
Plays against favorites (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Detroit is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or fewer of their attempts over the last two seasons. They are losing these games by a whopping 17.3 points per game on average. Detroit is 3-13 ATS off two more more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.
|
10-31-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -112 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -112
This World Series has been so compelling thus far that it just feels like a Game 7 is going to happen. And we're getting the Dodgers at a tremendous value in Game 6 as small home favorites. I expect the Dodgers to get the job done tonight.
Rich Hill has gone 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 home starts. Hill has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, so he has clearly been on his game down the stretch and into the postseason.
Justin Verlander was complaining about the baseballs for the World Series. He says their slick, and that's probably why he only had one swing and miss on his slider against the Dodgers in Game 2, the first time that has happened all season. The fact that he's worried about the baseballs is a concern for Astros' backers as it's clearly in his head.
Verlander gave up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in Game 2 against the Dodgers. He has posted a 4.18 ERA in 19 road starts this season as he's much worse away from home. Verlander has posted a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles, while Hill has posted a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.
The Dodgers are 52-19 in their last 71 home games. The Astros are 1-4 in their last five playoff road games. Los Angeles is 5-1 in Hill's last six starts. Houston is 2-7 in its last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers in Game 6 Tuesday.
|
10-31-17 |
Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 54 |
Top |
28-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Miami (OH)/Ohio UNDER 54
Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio is one of the more underrated rivalries in the MAC. These teams absolutely hate each other, and that makes these games played closer to the vest. And if you look at the series history, it has almost always been a defensive battle. I expect more of the same Tuesday night.
The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. The Bobcats and Redhawks have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings with the lone exception behind a 57-point effort in 2013. They have averaged a combined 40.4 points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 54. Ohio beat Miami 17-7 last year and these teams combined for just 435 total yards.
I think the fact that Ohio is scoring 40.7 points per game this season is what has inflated this total. But the Bobcats have played one of the worst schedules of opposing defenses in all of college football. Now they'll be up against a much more respectable Miami defense that is giving up 24.5 points and 356 yards per game, including 20.5 points per game in conference play.
Miami's offense has failed to get going this year, averaging just 23.6 points per game. Now they'll be up against a Bobcats defense that is giving up only 25.4 points per game, including 19.7 points per game, 313.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in conference play.
The UNDER is 37-16 in Redhawks last 53 October games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven games following a bye. Both teams have extra prep time after last playing on November 21st, which favors the defenses. The UNDER is 4-1 in Redhawks last five conference games. The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Bobcats last 29 conference games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
10-30-17 |
Mavs +8 v. Jazz |
|
89-104 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +8
The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going. They opened the season by going 3-0 ATS in their first three games with home wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and a road win at Minnesota. That quick start has them overvalued.
The Jazz have come back down to reality since. They have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 16 on the road to the Clippers, and by 9 on the road to the Suns. They did beat the Lakers by 15 at home, but the Lakers were playing the second of a back-to-back.
Conversely, the Mavs are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start. They weren't very competitive in their first four games, but their last three have been a different story. They beat Memphis 103-94 at home, only lost 91-96 in Memphis as 5-point dogs, and only lost 110-112 at home to the 76ers. Now they are catching 8 points against the Jazz in a game that is likely to go down to the wire.
Three of the last six meetings between Utah and Dallas have gone to overtime, which just shows you how close this series has been. And the Mavs have only lost once by more than 5 points to the Jazz in their last seven meetings.
Dallas is 32-16 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Utah is 0-9 ATS in home games after covering four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Mavericks Monday.
|
10-30-17 |
Broncos v. Chiefs -7 |
Top |
19-29 |
Win
|
100 |
171 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a great spot here. They are coming off two straight losses and will be fired up to get back in the win column at home. And they are coming off a Thursday game against the Raiders, giving them extra rest time and preparation to get ready for the Denver Broncos. That mini-bye week has been pure gold in the NFL. Teams coming off a Thursday game have gone 9-3 ATS this season.
While the Chiefs had a chance to beat both the Steelers and Raiders in their last two games, the Broncos haven't even come close to winning their last two. They lost 10-23 at home to the Giants despite being 13.5-point favorites, and then proceeded to get shut out 21-0 on the road against the Chargers despite being favored in that game as well.
The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, which is a big reason for their struggles. Losing Emmanuel Sanders is a bigger loss than what is getting factored into these spreads. He is the second-favorite target of Trevor Siemian and now this is a vanilla offense without him as opposing teams can just take away Demaryius Thomas, and the Broncos don't have anyone else that can beat them.
Denver is was also missing tackle Menelik Watson and his backup Donald Stephenson last week, which explains all the struggles that Siemian was having. Both are questionable to return this week. And Siemian was dealing with a shoulder injury of his own and didn't look good at all against the Chargers. He got rocked time after time, and I just can't see how he isn't beat up right now. I think he is hiding injuries and playing through them.
The Broncos have benefited from a home-heavy schedule in the early going, playing four home games compared to two road games. And boy were their two road games awful. They lost 16-26 to the Bills and 21-0 to the Chargers, averaging just 8.0 points and giving up 23.5 points per game, losing both by double-digits. And now this is a big step up in class against a Chiefs offense that is doing whatever it wants to.
The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 points per game (1st), 5.2 yards per carry (1st), 8.7 yards per pass attempt (1st) and 6.5 yards per play (1st). As you can see, they rank 1st in the NFL in all four categories. Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt are having MVP-caliber seasons. And while the Chiefs' numbers defensively are down this year, it's due to playing the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. I would argue that this Denver offense is the weakest they have faced yet, and it's not really even close considering the current state of the Broncos' offense with all of the injuries.
The Chiefs have owned the Broncos in their last three meetings. They won 29-13 in their final meeting of 2015 on the road, 30-27 on th road last year, and 33-10 at home last year. They have outscored the Broncos a combined 92-50 in those three games despite playing two on the road, or by an average of 14 points per game. They have proven by averaging 30.7 points per game that they have no trouble moving the ball and putting up points on this supposedly vaunted Denver defense.
Andy Reid has always been a great coach to back with extra prep time as he has the best record of any NFL head coach off a bye. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. AFC West opponents.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
|
10-30-17 |
76ers +6.5 v. Rockets |
|
115-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
It's amazing that two teams from different conferences will be meeting for a second time this early in the season. But that's the scenario we have here as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Houston Rockets for a rematch.
The Rockets won the first meeting 105-104 as 3-point road favorites over the 76ers. Eric Gordon hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Rockets the win. You can bet the 76ers are going to want their revenge tonight as they'll be the more motivated team, which is why I like getting 6.5 points with them in the rematch.
This 76ers team is coming off three straight covers and is playing very well right now. They won 87-76 in Detroit and 112-110 in Dallas before and after that game against Houston. The Rockets have been overvalued quite a bit, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including an 89-103 loss in Memphis last time out. Injuries have been a big problem for them as Chris Paul remains out, while Gordon is questionable today.
Mike D'Antoni is 5-15 ATS off two straight road games as the coach of Houston. D'Antoni is 2-12 ATS in home games versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game as the coach of Houston. The 76ers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents.
Philadelphia is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 76ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the 76ers Monday.
|
10-29-17 |
Dodgers -139 v. Astros |
|
12-13 |
Loss |
-139 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Dodgers/Astros Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -139
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Clayton Kershaw at this kind of price. It's a no-brainer to back him here in Game 5. The Dodgers have the momentum after rallying from a one-run deficit late to win 6-2 yesterday. And Kershaw will keep that momentum going.
Kershaw is 21-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 31 starts this season. The Dodgers have gone 27-4 in those 31 starts. He held the Astros to just one run on three hits without a walk while striking out 11 in a dominant effort in Game 1. He has clearly erased the demons of postseason's past.
Dallas Keuchel has lost his last two postseason starts, giving up 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees, and 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 2/3 innings opposite Kershaw in Game 1 of this series.
Kershaw is 18-1 (+16.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Roll with the Dodges in Game 5 Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
Magic v. Hornets -3 |
|
113-120 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -3
The Orlando Magic are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-1 start to the season. They are coming off a home win over the short-handed San Antonio Spurs and are now in a massive letdown spot off that big win.
The Charlotte Hornets have dealt with injuries of their own, but they are starting to get healthy outside of Nic Batum. And this is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion. They should be laying more than 3 points at home to the Magic here.
The Hornets simply own the Magic. They have won seven straight meetings while going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The last three meetings in Charlotte have resulted in double-digit blowout victories by 40, 21 and 14 points. Expect more of the same in their first meeting of 2017. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
Raiders +3 v. Bills |
Top |
14-34 |
Loss |
-115 |
147 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a season-saving 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday. They thought they won the game a couple times, but had plays called back due to either reviews or penalties. But they showed tremendous composure, and Derek Carr hit the game-winner on the final play to Michael Crabtree. Now the Raiders have an extra pep in their step heading into this road trip to Buffalo.
And the Raiders are in a situation that I love to back here. They are coming off a Thursday game, which gives them a mini-bye week and an edge over the Bills in rest and preparation. Teams coming off Thursday games are a very profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS in 12 games this season. I really believe the wrong team is favored here.
Carr showed that he is fully recovered from a back injury that forced him to miss all or parts of two games, which were two of the four losses the Raiders have suffered this season. Carr lit up a good Chiefs defense for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Amari Cooper showed that he remains an elite receiver after a slow start to the season, catching 11 balls for 210 yards and two scores.
There's no question the Raiders have the better offense in this game. The Bills have been winning with smoke and mirrors this season and are nowhere near as good as their 4-2 record would indicate. Their offense has put up just 19.8 points, 299 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. Tyrod Taylor is missing his favorite target in Charles Clay, and this is mostly a one-dimension running offense.
That actually makes this a good matchup for the Raiders defensively. Their weakness has been against the pass, but they have held their own against the run. They are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry against teams and average 4.3 yards per carry. And they signed NaVorro Bowman away from the 49ers, and he's an elite run defender who made his first start with the team last week. He brings an added element of toughness and leadership in the middle of their defense.
The Bills got off to a great start defensively this season, but there have been plenty of holes in their D the last two weeks. They gave up 388 total yards to the Bengals and 447 to the Bucs. Their weakness has been against the pass as they allowed 323 passing yards to Andy Dalton and the Bengals and 378 to Jameis Winston and the Bucs. That's not good news for them considering Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are heating up. Not to mention TE Jared Cook came alive with 107 receiving yards last week. A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills. Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game. Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday. Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.
The Raiders have owned the Bills, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo. Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games coming in. Buffalo is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games. Take the Raiders Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
Falcons -4 v. Jets |
Top |
25-20 |
Win
|
100 |
139 h 11 m |
Show
|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4
This is definitely the type of 'buy low sell high' situation that I love in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, so they are starting to actually attract attention from the betting public.
We'll buy low on the Falcons knowing that this is the type of 'circle the wagons' game that they'll get up for. They still have a great shot to win their division, and they are better than their 3-3 record would suggest. Their offense isn't broken contrary to popular belief, and their defense is better than it gets credit for.
In fact, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.2), which is the most important stat when determining how good an offense is. And the defense ranks 12th in the NFL giving up 5.1 yards per play, so the Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. That's the sign of an elite team, not a mediocre 3-3 one.
While the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game, the Jets are actually getting outgained by 46 yards per game. The Jets have done a good job of covering some inflated numbers in the early going, but now that the numbers are back to where they should be, this team will be fade material starting this week.
Let's just compare some previous Jets' lines to see the type of line value we are getting here. The Jets were 7-point road dogs to Buffalo, 14-point road dogs to the Raiders, 5.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, 4-point home dogs to the Jags, and 9-point home dogs to the Patriots.
Now they are only 4-point home dogs to the Falcons, and I still believe the Falcons are a Top 5 team in the NFL, and potentially top 2. It will be the second-toughest opponent the Jets have faced all season, just behind the Patriots, who they lost to by a touchdown at home.
The Jets are in a bad state of mind right now. They came so close to beating the Patriots a couple weeks ago, falling just a touchdown short. Then they blew a 28-14 fourth quarter lead against the Dolphins last week, losing 28-31. They are feeling deflated right now and won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to face this hungry Falcons outfit.
Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Falcons are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 8. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
Panthers v. Bucs -1.5 |
|
17-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
139 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5
The season is basically on the line for the Tampa Bay Bucs this week. At 2-4, and following three straight losses, they cannot afford a loss this week at home to the Carolina Panthers. I think we're getting the Bucs at a discount here.
After all, the Bucs have lost their last three games all by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games. And they've been killed by injuries up to this point, but now they are as healthy as they've been since their 29-7 win over the Bears in Week 2. Their defensive numbers haven't been pretty, but that's almost exclusively due to the injuries, not the lack of talent.
Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are back healthy. Cornerback Brent Grimes and safety TJ Ward have each missed time and are healthy now. Doug Martin is back from his 3-game suspension. And Jameis Winston showed that his shoulder injury is an afterthought after throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills last week.
The Carolina Panthers' 4-1 start was a bit fraudulent as three of their wins were 50/50 games decided by 6 points or less. Then injuries really hit this team the last few weeks as they lost at home to the Eagles, and were embarrassed 17-3 at Chicago last week. They managed just 3 points against the Bears despite having the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game.
The offense has been hampered by injuries on the offensive line and to Greg Olsen. The defense was without its best player in Luke Kuechly last week, and it's still uncertain whether he will return from a concussion this week. They could be extra cautious with him after he missed significant time with a concussion last year. Safety Kurt Coleman is also questionable.
The weakness of the Panthers' defense is the secondary as they allow 67% completions to opposing quarterbacks. Well, the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in passing offense at 312 yards per game. They are loaded with weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, a rookie out of Alabama who had two touchdown receptions last week and will play a bigger role moving forward.
Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983. The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC South opponents. The favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
49ers +13 v. Eagles |
|
10-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
120 h 24 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13
This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation with the San Francisco 49ers catching 13 points on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers are coming off a 40-10 blowout home loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are coming off a 34-24 double-digit home win over the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.
The majority of bettors were on the Eagles in that game and will continue to back them after they looked so good. But a lot went wrong for the Redskins as they had cluster injuries along the offensive line throughout the game. And after playing on Monday, that makes this a short week for the Eagles, which is a disadvantage for them.
It's also a huge letdown spot for the Eagles off that big win over a division rival, and with plenty of separation between themselves and the second-place Cowboys (3-3) with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East. Don't be surprised if they relax this week with the 0-7 49ers coming to town.
The Eagles lost two standouts to injury in that Redskins game as well. Left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffered season-ending injuries in the win. That thrusts backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and linebacker Najee Goode into big roles for the first-place Eagles. Both have been given a shot in the past, and they have mostly been unproductive.
It was an awful spot for the 49ers last week. They were deflated following an NFL-record five straight losses by 3 points or less and by a combined 11 points. And they were tired off a three-game road trip that featured two overtime games. They were playing a fresh and motivated Dallas Cowboys team that was coming off a bye and two consecutive losses. It's easy to see how they got blown out.
Now the 49ers should have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the team with the best record in the NFL right now in the Eagles. They will look at this as an opportunity to shock the world and pull off the upset. And now that rookie QB CJ Beathard has six quarters of NFL action under his belt, he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.
Kyle Shanahan will come up with a game plan that will allow Beathard to be successful this week. It will revolve around exploiting an Eagles secondary that has been underwhelming this season. The Eagles rank 29th against the pass, allowing 272.9 passing yards per game on the season. Because the Eagles are so poor against the pass, the back door is going to be wide open even if the 49ers do find themselves down by two touchdowns or more at some point in this game.
Plays on underdogs 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game. Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|
10-29-17 |
Colts v. Bengals OVER 41 |
|
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
82 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41
This is my favorite total in the NFL this week. I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season. I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.
The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game. They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed. They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game. They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.
Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week. That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks. LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts. LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.
Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year. He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games. The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do. Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers. They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.
The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season. The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season. They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.
Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years. The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|
10-28-17 |
USC v. Arizona State +3 |
|
48-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
125 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* USC/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +3
The Arizona State Sun Devils have flipped the switch. Their last two games have been two of the most impressive of the entire college football season, and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. I still think this team is flying under the radar this week as home underdogs to the USC Trojans.
It started five weeks ago when they beat Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs. That was a healthy Oregon team at the time. Then they had a decent showing in a 24-34 loss at Stanford as 17-point dogs, covering the spread there as well.
Then they had their bye week and I backed them as 17.5-point home dogs to Washington. They won that game outright 13-7, limiting a potent Washington offense to just 230 total yards and one touchdown. If they were ever going to have a letdown, it would have been last week in Salt Lake City.
Instead, they blasted Utah 30-10 as 10-point underdogs. They held the Utes to just 265 total yards while forcing four turnovers. Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett has this defense playing at an extremely high level right now. He has 40 years of coaching experience and was a tremendous hire by Todd Graham in the offseason.
While the Sun Devils are feeling good about themselves, the USC Trojans just suffered the type of dream-crushing loss to Notre Dame last week that could be hard to recover from. I was on Notre Dame as my biggest play last week, and the Fighting Irish crushed them 49-14. Now the Trojans have no shot of making the four-team playoff after coming into the season as one of the favorites to get there.
The Trojans were beaten physically at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Notre Dame. They gave up 377 rushing yards, and only managed 76 rushing yards on 31 carries. They have key injuries up and down the offensive and defensive lines, which has been their biggest problem this season.
Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and he has made some costly mistakes all year. The Trojans have committed at least two turnovers in every game this season and 19 turnovers in eight games overall. And the Trojans haven't been able to catch their breathe because they don't get a bye week all season. It's a big reason why these injuries just keep compiling.
Yet here we are with the Trojans favored this week on the road against this upstart Arizona State team. This despite the fact that USC has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. And Arizona State has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games while covering the spread by a combined 77.5 points. or by an average of nearly 20 points per game. And USC needed to stop a 2-point conversion to beat Utah at home two weeks ago, while ASU beat Utah by 20 on the road last week. That gives these teams a common opponent here recently.
Plays against favorites of 3 to 10 points (USC) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1992. The Trojans are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games. The Sun Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. ASU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona State is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 60% & 75%. The Sun Devils are 80-48 ATS in their last 128 Saturday home games. It will be a great atmosphere in Tempe for this late-night game on ESPN this weekend. These fans are really excited about their team this year with the Sun Devils legitimately in the race for the Pac-12 South title after a 3-1 start in conference play. Bet Arizona State Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 208 |
|
95-87 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* Pistons/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208
The Los Angeles Clippers are more of a defensive team now that they swapped out Chris Paul for Patrick Beverly. Their offense doesn't run as efficiently because Beverly is not a scorer and they lost Jamaal Crawford, so this team is hanging hats on defense led by Beverly and DeAndre Jordan.
The Clippers currently rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 4 points less per game than 2nd-place Boston. And the Clippers aren't playing with much tempo offensively, ranking 19th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game.
Detroit also prefers to play at a slower tempo ranking 17th in pace at 99.9 possessions per game. And the Pistons also are a team that relies on defense more than offense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.
The head-to-head numbers also favor the UNDER. The Pistons and Clippers have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - team who made 6 or more 3 point shots/game last season, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 46-15 (75.4%) over the last five seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 203 |
Top |
81-96 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203
The Utah Jazz have been an UNDER machine this season, and we'll continue riding their unders here against the Los Angeles Lakers. This total of 203 has clearly been inflated and I think there is still value with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in all Jazz games this season. The reason for that is the Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game. The Jazz rank 8th in defensive efficiency but just 26th in offensive efficiency. The loss of Gordon Hayward makes this team even more of a worse offensive unit than last year, and they are probably even better off defensively.
The Lakers have been held to 92 or fewer points at the end of regulation in three of their five games this season. They have played well defensively in their last two games, giving up 99 points to the Wizards in OT and 101 points to the Raptors. And they played Toronto last night, meaning their be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.
The head-to-head history also favors the UNDER. The Lakers and Jazz have combined for 202 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 203. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Dodgers +129 v. Astros |
|
6-2 |
Win
|
129 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +129
I'm backing the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 to tie up this series with the Houston Astros. This just has the feel of a series that is going to a Game 7, and the Dodgers aren't going to just lay down and let the Astros have it. The series is basically on the line tonight.
Alex Wood has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season. He is 15-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 26 starts. And the thing you like about him here is that he has been at his best on the road, going 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts.
Charlie Morton isn't having the best postseason, going 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in three postseason starts. While Morton is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, Wood is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.571 WHIP in his lone career starts against Houston.
The Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts. The Astros are 15-32 in their last 47 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 21-7 in their last 28 interleague games. Roll with the Dodgers in Game 4 Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Rockets v. Grizzlies -1 |
|
89-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1
The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They are a tired team right now, and making matters worse is that they are without two starters in Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, as well as key bench player Nene Hilario.
The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go. The Grizzlies are 4-1 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. One of those wins came 98-90 in Houston as 8-point dogs as well.
So this will be a revenge game for the Rockets, but I don't think the revenge factor outweighs the tough spot for the Rockets with the no rest and the injuries. And the Grizzlies are only 1-point favorites here, so they only need to win the game to cover.
Plays on home favorites (MEMPHIS) - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win. The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Memphis. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Texas Tech +19 v. Oklahoma |
Top |
27-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
103 h 15 m |
Show
|
25* CFB DOG OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +19
I'm not sure what Oklahoma has done to warrant being a 19-point favorite over Texas Tech. This team has been overvalued ever since the win over Ohio State, and they haven't been able to live up to expectations. They won't live up to them here Saturday, either.
The Sooners have gone 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and all four of their games have been decided by 8 points or less against some suspect competition. They won 49-41 at Baylor as 28-point favorites, lost 31-38 to Iowa State as 30-point home favorites, only beat Texas 29-24 on a neutral as 8.5-point favorites, and needed a late TD to beat Kansas State 42-35 as 16-point road favorites last week.
Those aren't even four of the best teams in the Big 12. Baylor has yet to win a game, Texas has a losing record, Iowa State has been a surprise but is no contender, and Kansas State has only one conference win. The Sooners failed to cover the spread by a combined 69.5 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 17 points per game.
And here's why Oklahoma cannot be trusted to cover the spread this week. The Sooners have their 'game of the year' on deck against rival Oklahoma State next week in a game that could easily decide the Big 12. Then they play TCU the following week. I can't help but think the Sooners will be looking ahead to that 2-game stretch and overlooking Texas Tech.
That's especially the case after Texas Tech just lost 13-31 at home to Iowa State. I think we're getting some extra point spread value because of that effort. But the Red Raiders gave that game away with three turnovers, including a pick-six in the fourth when they were getting back into the game. And I wouldn't be surprise if the Red Raiders were looking ahead to their game against Oklahoma.
But make no mistake, this is an improved Texas Tech team this season. They still have the same potent offense they always do, averaging 40.3 points and 514 yards per game. But the difference with this team is that they now have an above-average defense. They are only allowing 5.6 yards per play against opponents that average 5.8 yards per play, holding them to 0.2 yards per play below their season average.
And Texas Tech will always be in this game against Oklahoma because they can score at will against this suspect Sooners defense. The Sooners are allowing 34.5 points, 453.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play in conference play against a weak schedule of opposing offenses. The Red Raiders are giving up a similar 34.2 points, 440.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play in conference play against a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses that has included Oklahoma State and WVU.
Last year Texas Tech proved it could keep up with Oklahoma as 16.5-point home underdogs. The Red Raiders lost that game 59-66, but they racked up a whopping 854 total yards and 42 first downs in that losing effort. They are going to want some revenge here and would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma's season. The Sooners are walking a tight rope right now with all of their recent close wins and could crash and burn here with Oklahoma State on deck.
Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has Texas Tech ties. He walked on for the Red Raiders as a quarterback before then-coach Mike Leach convinced him to give up playing and instead get a head start on his coaching career. The decision helped Riley land the head coaching job with the Sooners before his 34th birthday.
"Certainly wouldn't be standing here talking to you guys without that place," Riley said. "It's always fun to play 'em. They're always somebody, when we're not playing 'em, I'm rooting for 'em."
Those are the kind of comments that make you think Riley won't be in a hurry to pour it on against Texas Tech if he gets the chance, though I don't think he will as this should be a close game throughout, just like it was when Texas Tech played Oklahoma State and WVU before.
"We need to play better," head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "I felt like, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, we had a chance to win those games. Last week, even in the fourth quarter, we were driving before that interception and had a chance to win the game. But you can't turn the ball over three times."
Plays on a road team (TEXAS TECH) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS since 1992. Texas Tech is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a home loss, including 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home. The value on this big dog is too good to pass up this weekend. Bet Texas Tech Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Minnesota +8 v. Iowa |
|
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
121 h 30 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +8
This is one of the better under-the-radar rivalries in college football between border rivals Iowa and Minnesota. They certainly have one of the better trophies of any rivalry with the massive Floyd of Rosedale at stake. I like getting more than a touchdown here with the underdog Minnesota Golden Gophers.
These are two similar teams who are both 4-3 right now. Both teams tend to struggle on offense, but both have made up for it by being very good on defense. I just feel like this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way given these team profiles.
Iowa has lost three of its last four games, though all four losses did come by 7 points or less. And four of Iowa's five games against Power 5 opponents this season have been decided by 7 points or fewer. The lone exception was the misleading 45-16 home win over lowly Illinois. But that was a 17-13 game late in the third quarter with Illinois driving before an 89-yard interception return TD. The Hawkeyes outscored the Fighting Illini 21-0 in the fourth, but they only outgained them by 6 yards for the game.
Minnesota has had a knack for playing in close games against Power 5 opponents too. Three of its five games that fit that description have been decided by 7 points or less. They beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road, but lost 17-31 at Purdue. However, the Golden Gophers were winning that game 17-16 at Purdue with less than three minutes to go. That was a misleading loss for them.
Minnesota's defense will keep it in this ball game. The Golden Gophers are only giving up 19.0 points, 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. Iowa is only averaging 26.1 points, 350 yards per game and 5.3 per play offensively. Iowa is giving up 381 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.
Iowa hasn't been a strong against the run as it usually is. The Hawkeyes are allowing 146 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry against teams that average 145 per game and 4.1 per carry. So they have only been an average team against the run. Minnesota, which rushes for 188 yards per game and 4.2 per carry, will find some success on the ground. It also helps that the stud RB duo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are both listed as probable this week and should both be ready to go.
Conversely, Iowa is normally a great running team, but that hasn't been the case this year. The Hawkeyes are only averaging just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. Minnesota has been able to stop the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. You have to think that the team that runs the ball better in this one will have the advantage, and based on the numbers, that edge goes to the Gophers.
PJ Fleck is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a non-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached. Fleck is 20-8 ATS in all road lined games as a head coach. Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons. The Gophers are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Minnesota is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Minnesota Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Western Kentucky |
|
42-28 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -6.5
No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 7 in college football than Florida Atlantic. It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes. But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.
FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener. They other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo. But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in three Conference USA games. I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.
It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites. Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites. They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites last week. The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 75 points in their last three games, or by an average of 25 points or game.
While FAU is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now, Western Kentucky is one of the most overrated. The Hilltoppers were the kings of the conference under Jeff Brohm the last few years, but after losing him, they have simply looked lost this season. They are 5-2 but just 1-5-1 ATS. And their schedule couldn't have been any easier up to this point.
WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener. Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now. They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites. They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-6 Ball State team that is coming off four straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49 and 41 points.
WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-7 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites. The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites. Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season. Then last week WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites.
Old Dominion gives us a recent common opponent to work with here to predict how this game will play out. Both teams played ODU on the road within the last few weeks. FAU beat ODU 58-28, while WKU only beat ODU 35-31. That fact alone shows who the better team is right now, and it's not really even close.
The key matchup advantage here will be FAU's elite rushing attack up against WKU's soft run defense. The Owls have rushed for a whopping 370.6 yards per game in their last five games. They racked up 804 total yards against North Texas last week with 357 through the air, so they are far from one-dimensional too.
Western Kentucky allowed 248 rushing yards to Charlotte and 268 to Old Dominion in its last two games. Teams that normally average just 3.8 yards per carry on the season are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against Western Kentucky this year. Now the Hilltoppers face their stiffest test yet against the run as the Owls average 6.2 yards per carry.
Unlike FAU's offense, WKU's offense has been one-dimensional. The Hilltoppers average just 82 rushing yards per game and 2.5 per carry against teams that normally give up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. Their offense has been limited to just 26.9 points per game against teams that normally give up 32.2 points per game. They no longer have the high-octane offense of year's past under Brohm.
Plays against a home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's the great part about backing FAU here. Once the Owls take the lead, they'll keep adding to it because the Hilltoppers cannot stop the run. And they only need to win by a touchdown to cover this 6.5-point spread. That won't be a problem. Take Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|
10-28-17 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +7.5 |
Top |
50-39 |
Loss |
-115 |
114 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* Oklahoma State/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football. They have gone 15-2 at home in Morgantown over the last three seasons. Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year and Oklahoma State in overtime the year before. That was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.
West Virginia is 5-2 this season, but when you look at the two losses, they could easily be 7-0 and getting more respect from oddsmakers. They lost 24-31 at Virginia Tech despite outgaining the Hokies by 123 yards and racking up 592 total yards of offense. They also lost 24-31 at unbeaten TCU despite outgaining the Horned Frogs by 102 yards and racking up 508 total yards against their salty defense.
I think the Mountaineers are also getting overlooked here because of their narrow 38-36 win at Baylor last week. But that was a misleading final as well. WVU actually led that game 38-13 in the fourth quarter and simply packed it in. It's easy to see how they were probably looking ahead to this game against Oklahoma State and simply took their foot off the gas too early. But that close final is getting us some extra line value here.
Oklahoma State should have lost to Texas last week, settling for a field goal in overtime and then coming up with a huge interception on an awful pass by the Texas QB to win 13-10. A closer look into that game shows why the Cowboys were shut down offensively. They suffered cluster injuries on their offensive line as their starting center and starting guard will be out for this game against WVU.
The Cowboys' Mason Rudolph gets all the headlines, but it's WVU's Will Grier who leads the nation in touchdown passes with 26 while throwing only five interceptions. I think he'll take this matchup personally and will have the Mountaineers hitting on all cylinders tonight. And WVU will also want revenge after losing back-to-back games to the Cowboys, including that OT loss at home two years ago. Their 20-37 road loss last year was misleading because the Mountaineers actually outgianed the Cowboys 421 to 358, but they committed three turnovers which was the difference.
Another key handicap for this game is the fact that this is a lookahead spot for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys will host the rival Oklahoma Sooners next week, and don't be surprised if they are overlooking the Mountaineers and on to that huge showdown that could decide the Big 12. WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. Take West Virginia Saturday.
|
10-27-17 |
Tulsa v. SMU -8.5 |
Top |
34-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
20* Tulsa/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -8.5
The SMU Mustangs haven't been to a bowl game since 2012. Chad Morris is in his third season at SMU and this is by far his best team yet. I rode the Mustangs early in the season because I loved this team coming into the year. And I'm back on them again Friday because of the situation.
The Mustangs beat Cincinnati 31-28 on the road last week to improve to 5-2 on the season. Now they can taste that bowl game, and they'll be super pumped to get it done here and improve to 6-2 to get bowl eligible with a win over Tulsa Friday night.
SMU opened the season by going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its first five games. But then it has just slightly been overvalued in its past two games, losing 22-35 in Houston as 10-point dogs, and barely failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites in that 31-28 win at Cincinnati. But that was a misleading final against Houston as they outgained the Cougars by 81 yards in that contest. And off two straight narrow non-covers, SMU is back to being undervalued here as only 8.5-point favorites.
Tulsa is in a tough situation mentally. This was always going to be a rebuilding season with all they lost in the offseason, but they didn't think it would be this bad. The Golden Hurricane are 2-6 on the season and will not be going to a bowl game because they still have road games at SMU and South Florida, and a home game at Memphis left on the schedule. So they are simply playing for pride from here on out.
Tulsa's last chance at making a run at a bowl game was last week, but they promptly lost 14-20 at Connecticut as 4-point favorites. And that's a terrible UConn team that lost 70-31 to Memphis recently at home. The Golden Hurricane are running on fumes right now because they still haven't had a bye week, so they will be playing for a ninth straight week, and on a short week here with this Friday game nonetheless.
Meanwhile, SMU had a bye two weeks ago before that Cincinnati game. That gave the Mustangs a chance to recharge their batteries and make a run here down the stretch at not only a bowl bid, but possibly a conference title if things break their way. And they are going to want revenge after a 40-43 overtime loss in Tulsa as 15.5-point underdogs last season, only adding to their motivation here.
Tulsa's defense has been atrocious. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 37.6 points per game, 288 rushing yards per game, 10.7 yards per pass attempt, 546 total yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. SMU can basically name its score here behind an offense that is putting up 42.0 points, 497 yards per game and 6.4 per play. The Mustangs average 313 passing yards per game and 8.2 per attempt as well.
Offensively, Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that averages 262 rushing yards per game compared to only 183 passing yards per game. That actually makes this a decent matchup for the Mustangs, whose weakness has been against the pass. But the Mustangs allow a respectable 150 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.
And the final case for backing SMU here is how well they've played at home. They beat a good North Texas team 54-32, crushed the Sun Belt favorite Arkansas State 44-21, and beat that same UConn team 49-28 that Tulsa just lost to. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, scoring 51.2 points per game and giving up just 23.7 points per game. They have won all four home games by 21 points or more.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULSA) - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tulsa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Mustangs have only committed six turnovers in seven games this year, which is another thing I love about them. Bet SMU Friday.
|
10-27-17 |
Nets v. Knicks -2 |
|
86-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2
The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season tonight. They have opened 0-3 with two road losses to Oklahoma City and Boston, and a blown 20-point lead in a 107-111 home loss to the Detroit Pistons.
But the Knicks have had plenty of time to practice and get ready for this game against the Nets. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight. And they are very healthy with only Jaokim Noah out right now.
The same cannot be said for the Nets, who are going to be playing without their two best guards in D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. The Nets have played five games already and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.
This is a massive letdown spot for these young Nets, who are coming off an upset 112-107 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 8-point dogs. The Nets have gone 3-0 at home, but they're 0-2 on the road with losses to the Pacers and Magic. The Knicks are good enough to beat them here, especially given the spot advantages with the rest and letdown for Brooklyn.
The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in home games off a road loss to a division rival over the last three seasons. They are actually winning by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot. New York is 15-3 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three years. Brooklyn is 13-27 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last three years. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Knicks Friday.
|
10-27-17 |
Rockets v. Hornets +3 |
|
109-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3
The Houston Astros are way overvalued right now. They lost 90-98 as 8-point home favorites against Memphis, and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the 76ers 105-104 as 3-point road favorites. They failed to cover in both games, and they'll fail to do so again here on the road against the Charlotte Hornets.
This is a Hornets team that I expect to be a sleeper in the East. They have gone 2-0 at home, beating the Hawks by 18 and the Nuggets by 17. And they haven't even been fully healthy. But they got two key pieces back from injury in Malik Monk and Michael Gidd-Gilchrist prior to the Nuggets game, and they will be a dangerous team moving forward.
The Rockets are far from healthy, and they lost a lot of their depth when they traded for Chris Paul while losing Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly to the Clippers. So far, so good for the 4-0 Clippers. And now Paul is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. Fellow starter Trevor Ariza is out with a foot injury, and they really miss him because he's their best defender and a great 3-point shooter. And key bench player Nene Hilario is doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a road win by 3 points or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 9-20 ATS off a road win over the last two years. The Hornets are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Roll with the Hornets Friday.
|
10-26-17 |
Pelicans v. Kings -2 |
|
114-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2
The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game. Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.
I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter. That just shows the lack of shooting on this team. And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings? He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.
The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more. The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points. I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season. The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons. The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Kings Thursday.
|
10-26-17 |
Stanford v. Oregon State +21 |
Top |
15-14 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 30 m |
Show
|
20* Stanford/Oregon State Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +21
The Oregon State Beavers played their best game of the season in their first game since Gary Andersen stepped down. Interim coach Cory Hall took over, and the Beavers only lost 36-33 to Colorado as 9.5-point dogs last Saturday.
The Beavers really should have won that game. They racked up 569 total yards and actually outgained Colorado by 184 yards in that contest. Star running back Ryan Nall returned from injury and rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado, both season highs.
"We're playing good ball right now. We've just got to fine tune some things right now," Nall said following the game.
Stanford's run defense, typically a strength, is struggling this season. The Cardinal rank No. 98 nationally with 195.4 yards per game allowed. So look for Nall to find plenty of success running the football, especially since he's fresh now after getting a bye last week to further recover from his previous injury that hampered him early in the season.
This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' type of game. The Beavers are 1-6, and they opened the season going 0-5 ATS. But they have been undervalued in their last two games and have covered inflated numbers against both USC and Colorado, and now this is another inflated number because Stanford is has won four straight and is coming off a 49-7 beat down of Oregon.
But Stanford has not played well at all on the road. In its three true road games, it is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS. It lost 24-42 at USC as 3.5-point dogs, lost 17-20 at San Diego State as 8-point favorites, and only beat Utah 23-20 as closing 3-point favorites, though that line was hovering up around 7 most of the week.
Oregon State has played Stanford very tough in recent years. They have only lost once by more than 18 points in the last five meetings. They only lost 15-26 as 16.5-point road dogs last year, and 24-42 as 14-point home dogs in 2015. And those were worse Oregon State teams than this 2017 version as this should have been Andersen's best team yet. But he didn't get the most out of his players this year, and so far the switch to Hall as interim coach has brought the best out of them. I look for that to continue this week.
And finally, Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love is questionable for this game with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision. It would be wise for the Cardinal to rest him and get him ready for the stretch run. I like Oregon State at this +21 number whether or not Love plays, but it would obviously be a huge bonus if he doesn't. Love is averaging 198.1 rushing yards per game and 10.3 per carry this season. He is all they have offensively.
Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons. The Beavers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a close loss to a conference opponent by 7 points or less. The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Oregon State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 October games. The Beavers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Take Oregon State Thursday.
|
10-26-17 |
Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
0-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
82 h 19 m |
Show
|
20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5
The Miami Dolphins have done a great job of getting to 4-2 this season despite the ineptitude of Jay Cutler. But because the Dolphins gave Cutler all they money, they figured they had to stick with him. A blessing in disguise happened last week.
Cutler was knocked out of the game against the Jets with a rib injury. Matt Moore, who should have been starting for this team all along, promptly led the Dolphins back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 31-28. Moore completed 13 of 21 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
Now Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, and I obviously believe it's an upgrade from Cutler. This offense just has too many weapons to be held back for much longer, and I've have to say scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter last week against a good Jets defense will be a sign of things to come for this team with Moore at the helm.
But the biggest reason the Dolphins are 4-2 right now is because they have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. They are allowing just 18.7 points, 308 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that normally average 21.9 points, 341 yards per game and 5.8 per play.
The Ravens are a mess and should not be favored in this game. They have so many injuries throughout the lineup that I'm not going to even take the time to mention them all. Let's just say this, their have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.
The Ravens have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They lost 44-7 to Jacksonville in London, 9-26 to Pittsburgh at home, 24-27 to Chicago at home and 16-24 to Minnesota on the road. Their only win came against EJ Manuel and the Raiders. And their last two games against Chicago and Minnesota were misleading. They got two special teams touchdowns against the Bears and still lost, and they scored a meaningless TD on the final play of the game to turn a 15-point loss into an 8-point loss at Minnesota.
The Ravens still have a respectable defense that is giving up 21.1 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 19.8 points and 324 yards per game. But their offense is atrocious, averaging just 18.6 points, 278 yards per game and 4.5 per play. And that point total would be a lot less if not for all of their defensive and special teams TDs this year. Joe Flacco is broken, and is missing a handful of weapons due to injury. The offensive line has been a disaster since losing Marshall Yanda as well.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on road teams (MIAMI) - off one or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 66-27 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS after going over the total in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Ravens need the game more, but they aren't equipped to get a win given their injury situation. The Dolphins are far and away the better team right now. Bet the Dolphins Thursday.
|