Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-25 | Houston v. Colorado +15 | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Colorado +15 The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now. That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers). The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge. After falling 82-81 as 9.5-point home favorites to Texas Tech, the Cougars had a lackluster 72-63 home win over Oklahoma State as 21-point favorites. Now they're being asked to go on the road and win by more than 15 points against Colorado Saturday without Sharp. It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado. The Buffaloes are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS in Big 12 play. But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate, and there's no question they are treating this as their 'National Championship' game with Top 5 Houston coming to town. Just two of the 11 conference losses have come by more than 15 points, and those were losses by 16 and 20 points. The Buffaloes have been very competitive at home with losses by 2, 6, 8 and 10 points. They will stay within this inflated number today. Bet Colorado Saturday. |
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02-08-25 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
20* Kansas/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +4.5 The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now. They have gone 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs. The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs. They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot. Now the Wildcats have their sights set on revenge from that 10-point road loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season. Kansas is 2-4 SU in its six true road games this season losing by 13 at Creighton, by 9 at Missouri, by 17 at Iowa State and by 11 at Baylor. The two wins came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in UCF and TCU. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Kansas State Saturday. |
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02-08-25 | Texas v. Vanderbilt -2 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -2 I love the spot for Vanderbilt today. The Commodores are pissed off following two consecutive road losses to Oklahoma and Florida. But now they return home where they are 11-1 SU at home this season with wins over the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky int heir last two home games. This is actually a step down in class for the Commodores against a Texas team that I'm just not that big of a fan of. The Longhorns are just 2-3 SU on the road in SEC play with their last win coming recently against a LSU team that looks like they have quit. They lost by 20 at Texas A&M, by 24 at Florida and by 3 at Ole Miss. The Commodores should be favored by more. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday. |
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02-07-25 | San Jose State +14 v. Boise State | Top | 52-79 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14 San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country. The Spartans are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. They have just one loss by more than 14 points all season, so this 14-point spread shows tremendous value. Boise State is in a bit of a letdown spot here after winning three straight including a 71-62 road win at UNLV last time out. The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Spartans again after topping them 73-71 as 8.5-point road favorites on December 28th in their first meeting this season. Meanwhile, the Spartans want revenge from that 2-point defeat to the Broncos, and they have the confidence knowing they can play with them. They continue to be grossly undervalued tonight catching 14 points. Bet San Jose State Friday. |
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02-06-25 | St. Mary's v. San Francisco +5.5 | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco +5.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels tonight. The Gaels are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. You're now paying a tax to back them due to this winning streak. The Gaels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight. They are coming off a 62-58 home win over their biggest rivals in the Gonzaga Bulldogs last game. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Francisco, which they already beat by 20 at home in their first meeting this season. But the Dons have been a different animal at home this season. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home with their last four home wins all coming by 9 points or more, including a 24-point win over Washington State and an 11-point win over Oregon State. The Dons have a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department from that first meeting at St. Mary's, which was a 71-51 loss on January 23rd. The Dons shot just 26.9% from the field while the Gaels shot 61.5%. It's amazing the Gaels didn't win by more. There won't be nearly that big of a discrepancy this time around, and I'm expecting the Dons to shoot much better than the 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3 they shot in that 1st meeting. Bet San Francisco Thursday. |
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02-05-25 | Tulsa +18 v. Memphis | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +18 The Memphis Tigers have been the kings of playing to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway. In fact, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -15 or higher. I always love fading them as big home favorites. The Tigers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Their largest loss was by 10 points during this seven-game stretch. They covered as big road underdogs in both road games. Tulsa is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Memphis. The Golden Hurricane haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last 12 meetings with the Tigers. Bet Tulsa Wednesday. |
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02-05-25 | Duke v. Syracuse +18 | Top | 83-54 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +18 This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Duke Blue Devils. They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home on Saturday. They have another huge game on deck at Clemson this weekend. This is the sandwich spot, and I expect the Blue Devils to be flat at Syracuse as a result. You're paying a tax on Duke right now due to their 15-game winning streak. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season and are undervalued. Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game. The Orange upset Notre Dame at home, only lost by 4 to Pitt as 8-point home dogs, and they upset Cal on the road. They will treat this as their 'National Championship' game tonight with the opportunity to take down the 2nd-ranked team in the country. Bet Syracuse Wednesday. |
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02-01-25 | Utah Valley +10 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 57-75 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
20* WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Valley +10 We have one of the most underrated teams in the country in the Utah Valley Wolverines catching double-digits against one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Grand Canyon Antelopes Saturday. I'll gladly take the value and the 10 points with the Wolverines. Utah Valley is 15-6 SU & 12-7 ATS this season. The Wolverines have been dominant of late going 10-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That includes a 72-64 win as 3.5-point home dogs to Grand Canyon on January 9th in their first meeting this season. They shot just 36.5% from the field and still won by 8. Grand Canyon is a woeful 6-14 ATS this season. They have been winning games but struggling to get margin as expectations are through the roof after what they did last season. And now this is a very unfavorable spot for them despite wanting revenge. Grand Canyon only has one day to get ready for Utah Valley after beating Seattle 83-74 as a 10-point home favorite on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have had the last six days off since beating Seattle 70-66 as 5-point road dogs on January 25th. They will be the fresher, more prepared team. Bet Utah Valley Saturday. |
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02-01-25 | Notre Dame -7 v. Miami-FL | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -7 The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's. Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian. The Hurricanes are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall as well. Miami has rarely even been competitive. The Hurricanes have lost six of their last seven games by double-digits. They just lost by 11 at home to a bad, short-handed Virginia team on Wednesday. I expect them to get blown out again today. Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall since getting its best player in Markus Burton (20.4 PPG) back from injury. With him in the lineup they are capable of beating anyone and they have shown that against the top teams in the ACC, while taking care of business against the bottom feeders. They will do just that with ease today. Bet Notre Dame Saturday. |
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02-01-25 | Texas Tech +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
20* Texas Tech/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +11.5 The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They sit at 16-4 this season with their four losses coming by 1, 1, 4 and 5 points. They haven't been blown out yet this season, and they aren't about to start Saturday. This is a terrible spot for Houston. The Cougars are a tired team after a two-game road trip at Kansas and at West Virginia. They pulled off the miracle in double-OT to beat Kansas, and they staved off a big comeback by West Virginia. Now they only have two days in between games to get ready for Texas Tech plus the flight from West Virginia back to Houston in between. I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Cougars. Bet Texas Tech Saturday. |
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02-01-25 | BYU v. UCF | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF PK UCF has been a wagon at home this season. The Knights are 10-2 SU at home with their only losses coming to Kansas and Houston. And they nearly upset Houston in a 69-68 loss as 13-point underdogs to show what they are capable of. In their last home game, the Knights crushed TCU 85-58. They followed it up with a 91-87 road loss to Kansas as 12.5-point dogs and likely would have won that game if not for some questionable calls by the refs. Now they will take out their frustration on BYU tonight. This is a terrible spot for BYU. The Cougars are coming off a huge 93-89 (OT) home win over Baylor for their 3rd straight win and cover in Big 12 play. I think they are overvalued now, and this trip to the East Coast is a long one. I don't expect them to handle it very well. BYU is 1-3 SU in Big 12 road games this season with the lone win at Colorado, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 12. They also lost at Utah, at TCU and at Houston by 31. This will be their 2nd-toughest road game of the season to this point. Bet UCF Saturday. |
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02-01-25 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +6.5 | Top | 92-82 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
20* Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +6.5 The Auburn Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country. With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to. We have seen that play out with Auburn going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with one of the covers coming by a 0.5-point. Auburn escaped with 2-point wins at Georgia and at home against Tennessee before beating lowly LSU by 13 as 12.5-point favorites. I think this is where their luck runs out against an Ole Miss team that has been one of the most underrated teams in the country. Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and gets the most out of his teams. He is doing that in Oxford as the Rebels are 16-5 SU & 12-8 ATS this season. Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are a tough team to get margin on. Ole Miss is 9-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming 63-62 to Texas A&M after blowing a 4-point lead in the final seconds. This will be the best home atmosphere for a game in Oxford all season with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town. I fully expect the Rebels to win this game outright. Bet Ole Miss Saturday. |
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02-01-25 | Creighton v. Villanova -1 | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -1 It's a great time to 'buy low' on Villanova and 'sell high' on Creighton Saturday. The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Bluejays are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. Yet Villanova is favored here, and favored for good reason. The Wildcats want revenge from a 86-79 road loss as 5-point dogs at Creighton in their first meeting this season on December 21st. Creighton shot 55% from the field and 14-of-25 (56%) from 3 and still only won by 7. I have to think they'll have some shooting regression in the rematch on the road this time around. Villanova is 10-2 SU at home this season. Creighton is 3-3 SU in true road games with a 24-point loss at Georgetown and two of the road wins coming against lowly DePaul and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Big East. Bet Villanova Saturday. |
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01-29-25 | Auburn v. LSU +12.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +12.5 The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country. With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers accordingly that are very difficult to live up to. It puts a massive target on their backs as well. I think this is a clear letdown spot for Auburn after surviving a pair of close 2-point wins at Georgi and at home against Tennessee in their last two games coming in. They will need to play a perfect game to cover this big of a number on the road at LSU tonight. The LSU Tigers have been very competitive in SEC play despite their poor record. They only have one loss by more than 12 points in conference play this season. This despite playing a brutal schedule with four of their last five games on the road. In their lone home game during this stretch, they beat Arkansas who had their best player in Fland for that game. The Tigers only lost by 7 at Alabama over the weekend to show what they are capable of. They will treat this like their 'National Championship' game, and I fully expect them to give Auburn a run for its money tonight. The home teams is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet LSU Wednesday. |
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01-28-25 | San Jose State +14.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14.5 The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated. The Spartans have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico. They then covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada before topping Wyoming 67-58 at home as 3-point favorites. I love the spot for San Jose State because they will be the more rested team. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while San Diego State will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days coming off consecutive road wins at Air Force (by 1) and at Nevada. It's hard to trust San Diego State to get margin on teams because they are so poor offensively ranking just 112th in adjusted offense. They also play slow and limit possessions, and San Jose State plays even slower, so this game won't see many possessions. In two meetings last season, San Jose State lost by 3 as 10-point home dogs and by 8 as 21.5-point road dogs to the Aztecs. Bet San Jose State Tuesday. |
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01-25-25 | Miami-FL v. California -9 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on California -9 The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire. Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start. The Hurricanes went on to lose their next seven games without him to fall to 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS this season. Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-15 SU in its last 16 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites. Each of their last five losses have come by double-digits, including a 35-point loss at Duke, a 43-point home loss to SMU and a 37-point road loss at Stanford in their last three games coming in. The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play going 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. California is coming off two of its most impressive games of the season winning 65-62 at NC State as 6-point dogs and 77-68 at home over Florida State as 3-point dogs. The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They will relish this opportunity to put it on Miami tonight at home. Bet California Saturday. |
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01-25-25 | Connecticut v. Xavier -1.5 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette. Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out. That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost. It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way. Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th. Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road. UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points. McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well. Bet Xavier Saturday. |
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01-25-25 | Duke v. Wake Forest +11.5 | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils. They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today. Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out. They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch. Bet Wake Forest Saturday. |
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01-23-25 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +11.5 | Top | 74-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5 Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season. That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian. I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah. They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago. Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot. They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams. The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer. Bet Southern Utah Thursday. |
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01-22-25 | Miami-FL v. Stanford -10 | Top | 51-88 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
20* Miami/Stanford ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -10 The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire. Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start. The Hurricanes went on to lose their next six games without him to fall to 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS this season. Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-14 SU in its last 15 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites. Each of their last four losses have come by double-digits, including a 117-74 home loss to SMU last time out and a 89-54 loss at Duke the game prior. The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play. The Stanford Cardinal are playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an upset road win at North Carolina as 11.5-point dogs last time out. They won their only two ACC home games by double-digits over Virginia by 23 and VA Tech by 11, and I fully expect them to beat the Hurricanes by double-digits tonight. Bet Stanford Wednesday. |
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01-21-25 | Butler +13.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5 Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships. They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well. The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points. Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams. Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs. They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out. They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer. That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st. The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch. They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games. Bet Butler Tuesday. |
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01-18-25 | San Jose State +13.5 v. Nevada | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5 The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated. The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out. That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule. While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated. The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites. They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road. They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here. Bet San Jose State Saturday. |
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01-18-25 | Iowa State v. West Virginia +7 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7 The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot. After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat. The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown. And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season. That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13. They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs. This team is much better than they get credit for. The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number. That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country. Bet West Virginia Saturday. |
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01-18-25 | Xavier +10 v. Marquette | Top | 59-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10 I love this spot in conference play. I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season. Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st. Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much. What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette. Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference. The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch. Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Xavier Saturday. |
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01-18-25 | Auburn v. Georgia +6.5 | Top | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5 The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country. With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to. We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game. They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago. They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%. But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season. And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season. That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12. Bet Georgia Saturday. |
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01-16-25 | Gonzaga v. Oregon State +10 | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
20* Gonzaga/Oregon State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10 The Oregon State Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 13-5 SU & 13-4 ATS this season. Three of the five losses came by 3 points or fewer to Oregon, North Texas and Santa Clara with two of those on the road. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight. Bet Oregon State Thursday. |
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01-16-25 | Memphis v. Temple +8.5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5 This is exactly the type of game Memphis loses outright. They are riding a four-game winning streak, but their last two games they were fortunate to escape with victories. They won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over North Texas and then by 4 as 12.5-point home favorites over East Carolina. Now their luck may run out tonight as they hit the road to face a Temple team that is vastly improved this season. The Owls are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Buffalo by 20 as 14.5-point home favorites, Wichita State by 6 as 1-point home favorites and Rice by 3 as 1-point road dogs. Their lone loss came by 1 as 3-point dogs at East Carolina. Temple is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Memphis. They lost by 7 as 9-point dogs and by 2 as 5.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings in this series. I think they can take the Tigers to the wire again tonight at home where they are 6-0 SU this season. Bet Temple Thursday. |
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01-14-25 | New Mexico v. San Jose State +10 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10 The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated. The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend. Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th. Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs. It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos. They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State. That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck. The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season. Bet San Jose State Tuesday. |
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01-14-25 | Mississippi State +8 v. Auburn | Top | 66-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8 The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game. They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites. Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him. Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. They have very few weaknesses. The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season. They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites. They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome. This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer. Bet Mississippi State Tuesday. |
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01-11-25 | Wake Forest -2 v. Miami-FL | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest -2 The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire. Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start. The Hurricanes went on to lose their next three games without him to fall to 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS this season. Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-11 SU in its last 12 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites. The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play after a 15-point home loss to rival Florida State last time out. Wake Forest is playing well going 4-1 SU in its last five games with its only loss coming at Clemson. That includes a 10-point road win at Syracuse and an 18-point home win over NC State. The Demon Deacons have been off for the last week and will have the rest advantage over the Hurricanes, who just lost on Wednesday at home to FSU and will only have two days in between games. Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is out for the Hurricanes after missing their last five games, which is a big reason for their recent struggles. Divine Ogochukwu (5.6 PPG) is questionable as well. Bet Wake Forest Saturday. |
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01-08-25 | Drake v. Bradley -2.5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5 The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco. They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight. The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season. But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites. G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State. He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one. The Braves have had this game circled all offseason. They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake. Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament. I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight. Bet Bradley Wednesday. |
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01-08-25 | Connecticut v. Villanova +1 | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1 The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak. Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less. That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out. A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season. McNeely is out again tonight. Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season. The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton. The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out. UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season. The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years. The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here. Wrong team favored. Bet Villanova Wednesday. |
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01-07-25 | Tennessee v. Florida -3 | Top | 43-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3 The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country. Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight. They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season. This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers. They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64. This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100. But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Florida Tuesday. |
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01-04-25 | UCLA v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -1 It will be a sellout for the Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-2) today in what is one of the toughest environments to play in the country. This will be just the second true road game this season for UCLA, and I don't expect it to go well for the Bruins. This is such a tough spot for UCLA. After losing by 2 to North Carolina at Madison Square Garden, the Bruins bounced back with a 65-62 upset win over Gonzaga on a neutral. This is their 3rd huge game in a row, and I don't expect them to be up to task. After going 18-1 SU at home last season, the Huskers are 7-0 SU at home this season for a combined 25-1 SU record at home the last two seasons. So getting them as only 1-point favorites is tremendous value today. Bet Nebraska Saturday. |
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01-04-25 | Georgia v. Ole Miss -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -4 Ole Miss is 11-2 this season with its only losses coming on a neutral to Purdue by 2 and at Memphis. The Rebels should be bigger home favorites over the Georgia Bulldogs today. Georgia is getting a lot of respect for its 12-1 record this season. But the Bulldogs have played the 331st-ranked schedule in the country with one of the easiest slates in the nation. They have only played one true road game and that was an 8-point win at lowly Georgia Tech, which wasn't that much of a road game. Their true colors showed in an 11-point loss to Marquette on a neutral, the best opponent they have faced outside Ole Miss. Bet Ole Miss Saturday. |
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01-03-25 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -1 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1 No conference has a better home-court advantage than the Big Ten. I think we are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between two pretty evenly-matched teams. Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming by a single point. The Buckeyes are playing very well here of late including a 85-65 win over Kentucky on a neutral as 8.5-point dogs two games ago. They won their lone conference home game 80-66 as 5-point favorites over Rutgers. Michigan State will be playing just its 2nd true road game this season. The first was a win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota. This is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Spartans tonight. Their two losses came to Memphis and Kansas on a neutral. The Buckeyes are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Spartans. Bet Ohio State Friday. |
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12-31-24 | Arizona State +9.5 v. BYU | Top | 56-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +9.5 Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They got blown out by Duke in exhibition season and have been undervalued since. The Sun Devils are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS this season despite facing a brutal schedule. The Sun Devils have faced the 49th-toughest schedule int he country. Their two losses came to Florida and Gonzaga, which are both Top 10 teams. They beat the likes of New Mexico, St. Mary's, Grand Canyon and Santa Clara. I would put BYU in the same category as those four teams in terms of talent level. BYU is 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS this season against a much softer schedule. In fact, the Cougars have played the 361st-ranked schedule in the country. Only three teams have faced an easier schedule. BYU lost by 11 to Ole Miss and by 19 to Providence, and that loss to Providence looks really bad. Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Arizona State Tuesday. |
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12-07-24 | Southern Indiana +9.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Indiana +9.5 Asking Southern Illinois to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. The Salukis are just 3-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS this season. Their three wins came against Missouri S&T, NDSU and Florida Tech. Southern Illinois is coming off a 23-point home loss to Bradley as 4-point dogs. They also lost by 25 at Florida, but 6 at LA Tech and were upset by Eastern Kentucky. Southern Indiana is 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last five games. Three of those four wins were outright upsets as underdogs. Their 80-78 loss at DePaul as 15-point dogs looks even better right now considering DePaul has only lost one game, and that was a 14-point loss at Texas Tech. Bet Southern Indiana Saturday. |
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11-27-24 | South Dakota +23 v. Nebraska | Top | 79-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23 I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out. But now I'm fading the Huskers here tonight because I think they are overvalued off that win, and it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big in-state rivalry game that takes place every year. The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper. Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago. The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites last night. They are 1-5 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations. I've been impressed with South Dakota this season. The Coyotes are 6-2 SU with their lone losses coming by 19 at Iowa and by 9 at Southern Indiana. I backed them in that game against Iowa, which I have power rated similarly to Nebraska. Iowa was only a 19-point closing favorite at home against South Dakota, and Nebraska is now a 23-point home favorite. There's clearly value on the Coyotes given the letdown spot for the Huskers. Bet South Dakota Wednesday. |
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11-22-24 | Cal-Irvine -6.5 v. Weber State | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UC-Irvine -6.5 UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game. The Anteaters are 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the first two spreads. They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games. They also beat Pepperdine 80-62 as 16-point favorites last time out. Now the Anteaters should make easy work of a Weber State team that has been dreadful this season. The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season. They lost 76-48 at Oregon State as 5-point dogs, lost 88-58 at Nevada as 17-point dogs and lost 73-68 at Hawaii as 5.5-point dogs, covering by 0.5-point after failing to cover by a combined 36 points in their first two games. Bet UC-Irvine Friday. |
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11-12-24 | South Dakota +23 v. Iowa | Top | 77-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23 This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to. And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight. South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites. The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points. Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites. The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points. I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job. He brings back three starters and several key reserves. Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac. All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring. Bet South Dakota Tuesday. |
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11-05-24 | Bethune-Cookman v. Texas Tech -28.5 | Top | 61-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5 Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year. I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been. He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year. Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12. "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous." Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year). F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year. But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico. They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low. Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC. Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here. The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG). They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions. This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders. Bet Texas Tech Tuesday. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut -6 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6 The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season. They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more. Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14. UConn has no weaknesses. The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense. They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer. Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey. Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season. He is the best big man defender in the country. Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end. They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to. This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers. Bet UConn Monday. |
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04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 155 h 43 m | Show |
20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11 The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season. They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more. That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one. UConn has no weaknesses. The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense. They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer. Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game. Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense. It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game. Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game. UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively. Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him. And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter. They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least. Alabama is due some negative shooting regression. The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games. UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan. Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on. This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts. Bet UConn Saturday. |
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03-31-24 | NC State +6.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5 What more does NC State have to do to get some respect? The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points. They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16. Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament. They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now. The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence. Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating. It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead. They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around. NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston. I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough. It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books. Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday. The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State. The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result. They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one. NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season. NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. Bet NC State Sunday. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5 The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country. They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win. The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs. They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs. And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs. I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well. Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter. As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th. Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds. It will be more of the same in the rematch. The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game. I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation. Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping. The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here. They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with. Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less. Bet Clemson Saturday. |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | Top | 54-51 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 50 m | Show |
20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M. That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season. It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season. Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well. I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward. Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT. That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again. This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them. I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough. They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd. But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything. It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison. This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston. I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3. Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State. The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays. We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage. Bet Houston Friday. |
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03-28-24 | Alabama v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 2 m | Show |
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4 The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament. Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season. They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32. Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels have no weaknesses. They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want. They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG). But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything. The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61. Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball. Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game. The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line. The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC. This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes. Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game. He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender. I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again. I like UNC to roll either way. Bet North Carolina Thursday. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5 Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska. They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament. No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M. The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season. They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral. Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin. I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch. Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily. They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them. Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for. The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department. The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska. But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well. Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M. Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. Bet Texas A&M Sunday. |
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03-24-24 | James Madison +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 55-93 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5 James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss. Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season. The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong. They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing. Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites. The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament. I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward. The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here. James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games. The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season. James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. Bet James Madison Sunday. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 16 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5 The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run. The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three. They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season. A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament. Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher. The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game. Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch. Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game. They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%. The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3. They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks. Bet Oregon Saturday. |
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03-23-24 | Oakland +6.5 v. NC State | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5 NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament. Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some. I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament. They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense. This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day. I don't think NC State will be ready for it. I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game. They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16. They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky. The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road. The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog. Bet Oakland Saturday. |
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03-23-24 | Michigan State v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5 This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte. That's not being factored into this line enough. The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season. The Tar Heels have no weaknesses. They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want. They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG). Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State. They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team. They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well. Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building. North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games. This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels. Bet North Carolina Saturday. |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 89-68 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5 Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result. The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch. Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener. It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it. That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday. They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece. They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission. This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City. Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more. Bet Gonzaga Saturday. |
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03-22-24 | James Madison +4.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 120 h 18 m | Show |
20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5 James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss. Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season. But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing. They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there. It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything. Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals. They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost. I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64. James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th. The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup. James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record. I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night. Bet James Madison Friday. |
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03-22-24 | Grambling State v. Purdue -26.5 | Top | 50-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5 This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything. The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom. One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why. In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom. The 10 losses were absolutely laughable. They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida. Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue. It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year. They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory. Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H. They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside. The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3. Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game. It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them. Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom. Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game. This line should be 30 or higher. Bet Purdue Friday. |
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03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7 UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game. The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament. I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected. And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too. They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake. They can play with San Diego State. I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year. They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games. They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed. The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs. San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico. They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer. I question how much gas they have left in the tank. I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%. UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win. The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games. The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites. UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season. The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home. This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs. They aren't used to playing this early in the day. The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East. Bet UAB Friday. |
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03-21-24 | McNeese State +6 v. Gonzaga | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6 McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference. VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them. Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season. The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed. They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale. They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament. The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team. One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers. The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense. They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team. They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court. Bet McNeese State Thursday. |
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03-17-24 | Duquesne +2.5 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5 Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January. The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall. They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong. They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU. VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne. Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win. It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral. Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK. The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games. Wrong team favored here. Bet Duquesne Sunday. |
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03-16-24 | Marquette v. Connecticut -8.5 | Top | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5 The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country. They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are. The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough. Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him. They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him. This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden. Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today. UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games. One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten. They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight. Bet UConn Saturday. |
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03-16-24 | Iowa State +5 v. Houston | Top | 69-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5 The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South. The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season. They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday. Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State. The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting. Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road. But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament. Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team. That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days. They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game. He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out. TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State. The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
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03-15-24 | St. John's +9.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5 St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team. They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday. Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies. They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H. It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately. They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset. Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early. The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away. They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight. Bet St. John's Friday. |
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03-14-24 | Utah v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5 Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch. The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon. That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th. It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday. While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament. Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season. Bet Colorado Thursday. |
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03-14-24 | Cincinnati v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5 Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati. The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson. Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now. The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments. Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth. Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco. Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent. Bet Baylor Thursday. |
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03-14-24 | Ohio State -1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5 Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota. They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch. The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd. The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside. They are just a very hard team to trust. Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss. Bet Ohio State Thursday. |
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03-14-24 | St Bonaventure v. Loyola-Chicago -2 | Top | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2 Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today. The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday. They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today. Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday. |
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03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa +2 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2 The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern. Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois. That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes. Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left. They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season. This is a terrible spot for Illinois. The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game. But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for. They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago. I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games. Wrong team favored here. Bet Iowa Sunday. |
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03-09-24 | Kentucky +8.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5 The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title. They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well. I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result. Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake. The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd. They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points. They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too. Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season. You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today. Bet Kentucky Saturday. |
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03-09-24 | Arkansas +15 v. Alabama | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15 The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games. Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense. The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss. They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida. They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall. Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
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03-08-24 | Illinois-Chicago v. Bradley -10.5 | Top | 47-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5 Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament. The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20). Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night. It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight. Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley. Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home. So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage. Bet Bradley Friday. |
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03-08-24 | Belmont +1.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5 Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy. I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game. You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued. Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season. Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close. That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament. They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game. While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not. The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday. This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them. Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season. Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season. The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game. Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG) scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI. Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team. Bet Belmont Friday. |
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03-05-24 | St. John's -17 v. DePaul | Top | 104-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17 St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games. The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road. Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul. St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th. Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount. I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas. Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late. The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over. They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more. DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season. St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season. The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. Bet St. John's Tuesday. |
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03-05-24 | Purdue v. Illinois -1.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5 Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday. They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home. Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be. Illinois doesn't have the same luxury. The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight. They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season. But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension. He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall. Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup. The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road. This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late. The spot really favors the Fighting Illini. Bet Illinois Tuesday. |
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03-05-24 | Alabama v. Florida +1 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1 The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago. They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT. But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC. Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship. I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat. Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season. The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky. Bet Florida Tuesday. |
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03-03-24 | Stanford v. Colorado -12 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12 The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games. They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night. They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase. Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah. They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado. Stanford is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more. Bet Colorado Sunday. |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +3.5 | Top | 86-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
20* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +3.5 Both Gonzaga and San Francisco are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. But Gonzaga looks more in than San Francisco right now, which means the Don need this game more. The Bulldogs have a huge game on deck against St. Mary's on Saturday, and a win there would likely get them in the Big Dance. They could be caught looking ahead to that game. This is the best chance for the Dons to get a signature win, so they will be 'all in' to get it tonight. Plus, they want revenge from a 77-72 road loss at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season. The Bulldogs shot 20 more free throws than they did, and that was the difference. I think they will get the benefit of the whistle at home this time around. Nobody in the WCC has played Gonzaga and St. Mary's tougher than San Francisco has. The Dons also lost by just 4 at St. Mary's two games ago. It's time for them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight. They are 14-1 SU at home this season. The Dons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more. San Francisco is 7-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. Bet San Francisco Thursday. |
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02-28-24 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Creighton | Top | 64-85 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
20* Seton Hall/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on Seton Hall +8.5 Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament. The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova. They beat Xavier by 18 at home three games ago, upset St. John's 68-62 on the road two games ago and crushed Butler by 12 at home last time out. Now the Pirates want revenge from a 97-94 (3 OT) home loss to Creighton. I love the value we are getting on them catching 8.5 points in the rematch. They have a huge rest advantage here playing just their 2nd game in 10 days while having the last three days off, while Creighton has only had two days off since their 80-66 road loss at St. John's on Sunday with travel involved as well. I think the Bluejays remain overvalued after upsetting UConn at home two games ago. Creighton is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games with two or fewer assists. The Pirates are on a mission tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the outright upset. Bet Seton Hall Wednesday. |
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02-27-24 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame +6.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5 This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming. It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt. The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight. Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home. Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry. They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse. The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more. This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons. Bet Notre Dame Tuesday. |
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02-25-24 | Creighton v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
20* Creighton/St. John's CBS No-Brainer on St. John's +2.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm. They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games. Head coach Rick Pitino called out his team and it was a bad look, which is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low'. But the Red Storm responded well to Pitino last game jumping out to a huge lead against Georgetown and coasting home for the victory. Now the Red Storm want revenge from a 66-65 loss at Creighton as 6-point dogs on January 13th. Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and the books haven't adjusted enough for flipping home courts as St. John's should be favored. While the Red Storm need this game like blood and will be max motivated, this is a massive letdown spot for Creighton. They are coming off their biggest win of the season where everything went right for them in knocking of No. 1 UConn at home. They are also 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, so we are 'selling high' on the Bluejays here. St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of its last 10 games. Rick Pitino is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of his last 10 games as a head coach having never lost in this situation. Bet St. John's Sunday. |
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02-24-24 | Butler v. Seton Hall -3 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -3 Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament. The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova. They beat Xavier by 18 at home two games ago and upset St. John's 68-62 on the road last time out. The Pirates have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for this game against reeling Butler. The Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall including a pair of blowout losses in their last two, losing by 22 at home to Creighton and by 10 at Villanova. The Bulldogs are coming back down to reality as this team just isn't that talented and doesn't play much defense, allowing 71 or more points in seven consecutive games. Seton Hall beat Butler 78-72 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins by 6 points or more. Butler even shot 39.1% from 3 and 15-of-16 (93.7%) from the FT line in that first meeting and still lost by 6. It's going to be hard to see them improving on the road in the rematch. Butler is 1-7 ATS off a conference loss this season. Shaheen Holloway is 7-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game after 15-plus game as a head coach. Holloway is 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as a head coach. Bet Seton Hall Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Villanova +12.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
20* Villanova/UConn FOX No-Brainer on Villanova +12.5 The Villanova Wildcats are playing their way back into NCAA Tournament contention by playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Xavier. All four wins have come by double-digits by 10 over Butler, by 26 over Seton Hall, by 16 over Georgetown and by 18 over Providence. The Wildcats haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 7 points. Now the Wildcats want revenge from a 66-65 home loss to UConn as 3.5-point dogs. They are catching 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is too much. Everyone is expecting UConn to bounce back from its 85-66 loss at Creighton, but I'm not buying it. Villanova needs this game more and will be the more motivated team. Villanova hasn't lost any of its last 18 meetings with UConn by more than 12 points, making for an 18-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 12.5-point spread. Bet Villanova Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV -1 UNLV is making its push to make the NCAA Tournament playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch. The Rebels are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after they blew a double-digit lead late to rival Nevada and lost by 3. Their wins have been mighty impressive including an 80-77 upset win at New Mexico as a 12-point dog. They bounced back from that loss to Nevada with a 29-point win at Air Force last time out. Now the Rebels have their sights set on revenge from a 78-75 loss at Colorado State as 7-point dogs. The Rams are 1-6 SU in Mountain West road games with thier lone win coming at Fresno State. They lost by 16 at San Diego State, by 13 at Nevada, by 7 at Boise State and by 5 at Utah State. UNLV is in the same class as those teams and will handle their business at home. UNLV is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet UNLV Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Alabama v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -1 I love the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats today. They were humbled with a 75-74 loss at LSU at the buzzer which followed up their 70-59 road win over Auburn handing the Tigers their first home loss of the season. That was a clear sandwich spot for Kentucky with this game against Alabama on deck. Now we will get Kentucky's best effort today, and it will be good enough to beat Alabama. The Crimson Tide are riding high right now winning seven of their last eight. But they needed OT to beat Florida as 10-point home favorites last time out, and that effort will have taken a lot out of them. Alabama will be without Mohamed Wague (4.0 PPG) due to suspension and could be without Latrell Whitesell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.5% 3-pointers), who missed last game with a concussion. Conversely, there's a good chance Kentucky gets back Tre Mitchell (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. They beat Auburn without him, however. Nate Oats is 4-15 ATS off a home win where they didn't cover as a favorite as the coach of Alabama. Oats is 1-9 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 75 points or more as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Bet Kentucky Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest -1 I love the spot for Wake Forest Saturday. They get a chance at quick revenge after giving Duke a run for its money in a 77-69 road loss as 7-point dogs on February 12th. Now they get to host the Blue Devils in the rematch here two weeks later, and home-court advantage will make all the difference. Wake Forest is 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game. The Demon Deacons are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in ACC home games this season outscoring opponents by 20 points per game. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Duke is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games. Bet Wake Forest Saturday. |
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02-21-24 | Charlotte +5.5 v. Memphis | Top | 52-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +5.5 Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The 49ers are 17-8 SU & 14-9 ATS this season including 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in AAC play. They are in 2nd place in the conference just one game behind South Florida, which is also one of the most underrated teams in the country. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Memphis, which is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Tigers are 7-6 SU & 2-11 ATS in AAC play this season. Penny Hardaway is in dangerous territory here looking like he has lost this team. Memphis followed up a 76-66 loss at North Texas with a 106-79 loss at SMU on Sunday. The Tigers just quit playing defense against SMU and have now allowed 74 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. They have upset home losses to Rice as 14.5-point favorites and South Florida as 10-point favorites. They also only beat Wichita State by 2 as 9.5-point favorites. Memphis is 0-9 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games this season. Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet Charlotte Wednesday. |
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02-20-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2 I like the spot for Utah State after losing two of its last three games with two of those losses coming on the road to Colorado State and San Diego State. Now the Aggies want revenge from that loss to the Aztecs on February 3rd. They shot 26.1% from 3 while the Aztecs shot 45% from 3 and attempted 15 fewer free throws. They are due for some positive shooting regression and the benefit of the whistle at home in the rematch. It's a good time to fade San Diego State after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Aztecs are coming off a huge 81-70 home win over New Mexico to get their revenge on the Lobos from a previous road loss. The Aztecs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Air Force. They are also 1-5 ATS in their six MWC road games this season. Utah State is 11-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game at home. San Diego State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games with a line of +3 to -3. The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive wins. Bet Utah State Tuesday. |
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02-19-24 | William & Mary +17.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
20* CBB Big Monday No-Brainer on William & Mary +17.5 William & Mary is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Tribe lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Hofstra, pulled off the 4-point upset win as 9-point dogs at Northeastern, only lost by 4 as 8.5-point dogs at Monmouth and only lost by 11 as 12.5-point dogs at Delaware. William & Mary only lost 84-83 as 13-point home dogs to College of Charleston in their first meeting on February 3rd earlier this month. Now the Tribe are catching 17.5 points in the rematch, which is too much. That's especially the case considering they have played much better on the road here of late. Plays on road teams (William & Mary) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 55 points or less are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Charleston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall and consistently overvalued. That's the case again tonight. Bet William & Mary Monday. |
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02-18-24 | Florida Atlantic v. South Florida +5.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +5.5 South Florida has been disrespected all season and Florida Atlantic has been getting too much respect after making the Final 4 last season. That remains the case here Sunday. I fully expect the Bulls to earn their respect with an outright upset of the Owls, but we'll take the points for some insurance. South Florida is 18-5 SU & 15-6 ATS this season. The Bulls have gone 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They are 12-2 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU in conference play. Their lone conference loss came on the road by 4 points at UAB. Florida Atlantic is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall and consistently laying too many points to the opposition due to the notoriety of making the Final 4 last year. But they are getting everyone's best shot with a target on their back, and they will get South Florida's best shot today as well. South Florida is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Florida Atlantic. Bet South Florida Sunday. |
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02-17-24 | Arizona State +18.5 v. Arizona | Top | 60-105 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +18.5 It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Wildcats off five consecutive victories. They are coming off a pair of impressive road wins 105-99 (3 OT) at Utah and 99-79 at Colorado. That win at Colorado was even more impressive because they were coming off that 3 OT game and playing their 2nd game in 3 days in altitude. I think they take their foot off the gas tonight against Arizona State. But Arizona hasn't been very impressive in three of its last four home games. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games beating Stanford by 11 as 18-point favorites, UCLA by 6 as 18-point favorites and USC by 15 as 20.5-point favorites. I think Arizona State can stay within 18.5 tonight just as those three teams did. The Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Their last two games they upset Utah 85-77 as 12-point road dogs and crushed Oregon State 79-61 as 6.5-point home favorites. Now they are looking at this game against big brother Arizona as their 'national championship' game and will put their best foot forward. Arizona State pulled the 89-88 outright upset as 12.5-point road dogs last year. The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that are called for 3-plus fewer fouls per game than their opponents. Each of the last eight meetings in this series were decided by 19 points or fewer, including seven by 13 points or fewer. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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02-17-24 | Vanderbilt +20.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 53-88 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +20.5 Tennessee just doesn't take Vanderbilt seriously. As a result, the Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee. They lost by 13 as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. They upset the Vols as 10-point home dogs last year. They only lost by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs in their last two road meetings. Vanderbilt treats this game like its 'national championship' game every year. The Commdores upset Texas A&M 74-73 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out to flash their potential, and they already proved they could play with the Vols int their first meeting this season. They actually led that game by 5 points at halftime, and the 13-point loss was not indicative of how close it really was. Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a win by 6 points or less. Tennessee is 1-9 ATS with a total set of 140 to 149.5 this season. The Commodores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday. |
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02-17-24 | Cincinnati v. UCF +1 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF +1 UCF has proven it can hang in the Big 12 in its first season going 8-3 ATS in its 11 Big 12 games. That includes home wins over Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma. Now they host a Cincinnati team that they can handle here. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 to be tough sledding going 3-7 SU in its last 10 games overall. The Bearcats just lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State and now have to go on the road here against UCF. This is a brutal stretch that will have taken a lot out of them. UCF is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season. The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists. UCF is 8-1 ATS following a loss this season. Bet UCF Saturday. |
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02-17-24 | Florida v. Georgia +3.5 | Top | 88-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia +3.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs. They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule. But now they have had the last week off having played last Saturday to rest and recover. I expect a big effort from the Bulldogs against their arch rivals in Florida. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Gators. They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall. But they are starting to get overvalued, and they were fortunate to escape with an 82-80 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites on Tuesday. Georgia will be extra motivated for revenge from a 102-98 (OT) loss at Florida on January 27th. The Gators shot 54.9% from the field and 17-of-20 (85%) from the FT line and still needed OT to get by the Bulldogs. Things won't come as easy for the Gators on the road this time around. Georgia is 11-3 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-4 SU in SEC road games with one win at winless Missouri and the other coming by 3 points. Florida is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after winning four or five of its last six games. Bet Georgia Saturday. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico +6.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
20* New Mexico/SDSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5 New Mexico has played some of its best basketball on the road this season proving that the Lobos can win away from The Pit. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four MWC road games with three wins by 18 points or more as well as an upset win at Nevada. Now the Lobos are catching 6.5 points on the road to a San Diego State team that they beat 88-70 at home in their first meeting. They won by 18 despite shooting just 7-of-24 (29.2%) from 3 and 21-of-31 (67.7%) from the FT line. There was nothing fluky about that victory at all. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 6.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is a 10-point adjustment. That's too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts. New Mexico is 6-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. The Lobos are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season. New Mexico is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with San Diego State including a 76-67 upset win as 8-point road dogs last year. Bet New Mexico Friday. |
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02-15-24 | Temple +20 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +20 The Florida Atlantic Owls set some unsustainable expectations when they made their run to the Final 4 last season. They have been overvalued big time in conference play this season. They have a target on their backs and are getting everyone's best shot on a nightly basis. The result has been a 3-9 ATS run over their last 12 games overall. The Owls aren't blowing anyone out. They have won several close games during this stretch with six of their last 13 games decided by 4 points or fewer. They had no business covering against Wichita State last game, winning by 13 as 7.5-point favorites in overtime. Florida Atlantic won't be motivated at all to beat Temple tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 20-point spread. They have a huge game on deck at South Florida on Sunday against the team that is leading the conference. They will be looking ahead to that game. Temple is 1-10 SU in conference play, but all 10 losses came by 18 points or less, and nine by 13 points or fewer. So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in conference play. Temple's last six games were all decided by 7 points or fewer or went to OT. They will be treating this game as their 'national championship' game against FAU. Temple has just one loss by more than 18 points all season, making for a 23-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 20-point spread. Florida Atlantic has just one win by more than 15 points in its last 15 games. Bet Temple Thursday. |
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02-14-24 | Xavier v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5 This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall. The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games. They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova. Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season. They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference. They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch. I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy. Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul. Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette. Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them. The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more. Bet Seton Hall Wednesday. |
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02-11-24 | Penn State +8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5 The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs. They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games. The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern. They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th. That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs. Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out. Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough. Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State. Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more. The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs. Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry. They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3. Bet Penn State Saturday. |
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02-10-24 | Arizona v. Colorado +2.5 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +2.5 This is the toughest spot of the season for Arizona. They are coming off a 105-99 (3 OT) win at Utah in the altitude on Thursday. Four starters played at least 44 minutes for the Wildcats. Now they have to turn around and play in the altitude again in Colorado on Saturday. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Buffaloes. Colorado made pretty easy work of Arizona State in an 82-70 home win on Thursday. The Buffaloes should still be pretty fresh for this one. They have some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last decade, which has proven to be the case again this season. Colorado is 13-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game. Arizona is 2-3 SU in its last five Pac-12 road games despite being favored in all five. The two wins both came down to the wire, and the three losses came by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites. Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Arizona. That includes a 79-63 win in their most recent home meeting. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game. The Buffaloes are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case because it hasn't been for much of the season. Bet Colorado Saturday. |
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02-10-24 | Arizona State +13 v. Utah | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +13 This is the toughest spot of the season for the Utah Utes. They are coming off a very deflating 105-99 (3 OT) home loss to Arizona on Thursday. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Arizona Sun Devils on Saturday. They won't have anything left in the tank as their three best players in Madsen (51 minutes), Smith (49) and Carlson (44) have to be running on fumes. That is going to make it very difficult for the Utes to get margin on the Sun Devils. Arizona State clearly matches up well with Utah beating them 82-70 as 6-point home dogs in their first meeting this season. The Sun Devils are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Utes. Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a home loss. Arizona State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after two straight games attempting 10 or fewer free throws than their opponents. The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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02-10-24 | St. John's +7.5 v. Marquette | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +7.5 This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's after losing five of their last seven games overall. They want revenge from one of those defeats, a 73-72 home loss to Marquette on January 20th. Now they go from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment. It's a good time to 'sell high' on Marquette off six consecutive victories while also going 5-1 ATS during that stretch. They have had the last week off, and while that's usually a good thing, it could work against them here because they were on a roll. It's just like the NFL where you want to back teams who were poor going into their bye and fade teams that were on a roll going into their bye. St. John's is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in. The Red Storm are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet St. John's Saturday. |
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02-10-24 | Auburn v. Florida +2.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +2.5 I love the spot for the Florida Gators. They have had the last week off since a tough 67-66 road loss to Texas A&M last Saturday. They are foaming at the mouth and ready to take their shot at upsetting the Auburn Tigers in Gainesville on Saturday. Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off a 99-81 home win over their biggest rivals in the Alabama Crimson Tide. They got revenge on Alabama after losing on the road to them in their first meeting this season. That was on Wednesday, so the Tigers have only had two days to get ready for the Gators. Florida is 9-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming to Kentucky by 2. Auburn is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three SEC road games losing at Alabama by 4 and at Mississippi State by 6 with its lone win coming at Ole Miss. Florida is a perfect 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Auburn. Bet Florida Saturday. |