20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5

The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night.  They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage.

UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him.  But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time.  Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule.  Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State.  Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover.

After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out.  The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns.  McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense.

But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything.  The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot.  Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF.  Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football.

No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive.  The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal.  They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank.  

The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot.  QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game.  The Miners are live underdogs here tonight.  Bet UTEP Thursday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night.  The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games.  Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games.

That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week.  The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football.  They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah.

Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out.  The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State.  I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week.  Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game.  They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona.

Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either.  The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites.  They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach.  In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites.  They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest.  There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington.  Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64

Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State.  Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play.  Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well.

Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game.  The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play.

Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play.  They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game.  They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24

What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs.  They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.

In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs.  That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs.

Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents.  The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them.  I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry.  That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule.  Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance.

QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat.  He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games.  I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5

I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14.  This game has blowout written all over it.  The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town.

The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn.  This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU.

The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation.  The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away.

This is a terrible spot for Colorado.  They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT.  They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone.  The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF.

We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat.  They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started.  I think that will be the case this week.  UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush.  They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one.  The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock.

Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster.  Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions.  This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5

Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday.  East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th.  This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast.

UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season.  The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State.  East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners.

UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points.  I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week.  Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120

This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season.  It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer.

Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp.  Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka.

UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams.  UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game.  His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance.

UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway.  The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place.  They are balling out on D this season.

Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out.  They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season.  The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards.

Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week.  This was one of the most misleading final scores last week.  New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards.  That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico.  Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week.  I love the spot for the Rebels.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5

Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close.  The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game.  They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game.

They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State.  They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season.

Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites.

So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA.  Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards.  Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56

One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  It will be more of the same here.

I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead.  The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games.  They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game.  They allow just 297 yards per game on the season.

We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final.  Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same.

We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season.  Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home.  Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense.  Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points.  It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4

I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5.  I love the spot for the Wildcats.  They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win.  I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays.

But that game was a lot closer than the final score.  Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it.  They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open.  One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD.  Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see.

Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference.  Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game.  They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game.  You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards.

Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week.  They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah.  They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football.  The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run.  The Wildcats will run wild on them.

Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position.  Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game.  They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon.  They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry.  They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it.

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman.  I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13

Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick.  The line is currently down to +8 at most places.  It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse.

Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion.  I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs.

Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week.  Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week.  So those two performances don't look nearly as good now.

I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State.  They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.

This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now.  They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week.  

It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week.  And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty.  They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama.  The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback.  He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes.  He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago.

The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins.  It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive.  Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season.  

They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week.  They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.  And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive.

The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1.  They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites.

That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU.  The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it.

Maryland is a rebuilding team this season.  The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa.  They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State.  They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans.

Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it.  If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them.  

The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.  This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night.

Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team.  They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener.  Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.

Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites.  Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage.  Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories.

Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule.  The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well.  They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way.  They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team.  

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal.  The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites.  I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018.  This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it.  These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games.

Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt.  He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game.

That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run.  Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen.

But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago.  Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.  He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week.  Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* K-State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +7.5

BYU gave Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all they wanted in their final two games last season.  They lost 31-24 as 25-point home dogs to Oklahoma and 40-34 as 16-point road dogs to Oklahoma State in double-OT.  It was a sign of things to come this season.

The Cougars brought back 14 starters and look like one of the most improved teams in this country thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Southern Illinois 41-13 as 16.5-point home favorites, upsetting SMU 18-15 as 12.5-point road underdogs and crushing Wyoming 34-14 as 9.5-point road favorites.

While the offense finished strong last year and is solid again, it's the improvements on defense that have really stood out.  The Cougars held SMU's high-powered offense to just 261 total yards and a paltry 3.6 yards per play.  They rank 12th in the country allowing 236.3 yards per game on the season and 12th at 3.8 yards per play thus far.

Kansas State had high expectations coming into the season with many picking them to win the Big 12.  With those expectations comes lines that are tough for them to live up to.  The Wildcats have no business being more than a touchdown road favorite here against this upstart BYU team.

We saw the Wildcats struggle in their lone road game this season against a rebuilding Tulane team with a new head coach.  They won 34-27 as 9.5-point road favorites, but they were very lucky to win that game.  They trailed 20-10 at halftime and got a 40-yard fumble recovery TD in the 4th quarter that was the difference.  Tulane actually outgained Kansas State 491 to 396 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards.

BYU has one of the best home-field advantages in the country when they are good, and fans are excited about this team after a 3-0 start.  It will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night in Provo for this 10:30 EST start time.  Their home-field advantage is worth more than is being factored into this line.  This should be much closer to PK.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +45

Texas is the new No. 1 ranked team in the country after Georgia struggled to get by Kentucky last week.  The Longhorns are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start including a 31-12 road win at Michigan.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  The Longhorns shouldn't be laying 45 points to an upstart Louisiana-Monroe team Saturday.

The Longhorns avoided a letdown last week off the Michigan win with a 56-7 win over UTSA.  That's a UTSA team that is way down this season and one that lost 49-10 to Texas State the previous week.  Arch Manning came in for an injured Quinn Ewers and lit it up.  He threw 4 TD passes while also rushing for a 67-yard TD.

Fans and the media are praising Manning now as he will get the start in this game as Ewers recovers.  But what made Texas such a good bet to cover these big numbers was having Manning take over for Ewers late in blowouts and to keep piling on the points.  That won't be the case this week.

The Longhorns are much more concerned with just getting out of here with a win, and looking ahead to their SEC opener against Mississippi State next week.  They are excited about their first season as a member of the SEC and will be looking to prove themselves next week, not this week.  I think this is their flat spot, and they won't be looking to pile on the points late with their 3rd-sting QB.

Louisiana-Monroe has been impressive in its 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start.  They beat Jackson State 30-14 as 5.5-point home favorites in their opener.  Jackson State went on to beat Lane 58-7 and Southern 33-15.  They beat UAB 32-6 as 11-point home dogs in their second game of the season.  UAB went on to give Arkansas all they wanted in a 37-27 road loss as 22-point underdogs last week.

Meanwhile, ULM has had the last two weeks off after getting a bye to prepare to face Texas.  The Warhawks will be looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and I look for them to give the Longhorns much more than they bargained for.  New head coach Bryant Vincent is doing a great job already in his first season turning the Warhawks into a ball control team that actually plays defense as they have allowed just 272.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  He brought in some great talent that is flying under the radar.

Speaking of ball control offense, ULM ranks 126th in the country in tempo with 31.2 seconds in between snaps.  They will slow this game down to a crawl, which will give them a better chance of covering this massive 45-point spread.  That will limit Texas' possessions and give them their best chance of being competitive.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Oklahoma ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57.5

Tennessee has put up some of the best offensive numbers we've ever seen through three games.  The Volunteers are averaging 63.7 points per game, 639.3 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  This despite not getting tested and really not having to play with much tempo in the 2nd half of every game.

The Volunteers will get tested against Oklahoma, and they will have to put their foot on the gas for four quarters.  They have a Heisman Trophy contender in Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, a dual-threat who is completing 72% of his passes while averaging 6.0 per carry and he has yet to finish a game because of blowouts.  You know head coach Josh Heupel, the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator who didn't get the head job and was disgruntled because of it, will be looking to unleash him this week.

Oklahoma also has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jackson Arnold.  He has done well this season despite injuries at WR and along the offensive line, which are two positions that should be healthier this week.  Arnold is completing 63% of his passes for 484 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 TD on the ground.

Arnold has formed a nice chemistry with Purdue transfer WR Deion Burks, who has 22 receptions for 169 yards and 3 TD.  At least one reinforcement is on the way as WR Nic Anderson is expected to make his season debut this week.  Anderson was electric as a freshman last season, catching 38 balls for 798 yards and 10 TD while averaging 21.0 yards per reception.  He will instantly stretch the field for this offense and make life much easier on Arnold this week.

Tennessee only ranks 47th in tempo this season at 25.6 seconds in between plays, but by the end of the season they should be closer to Top 10 in this category because they want to play fast and will be in much more competitive games. Oklahoma ranks 27th in tempo at 24.3 seconds in between plays and wants to play fast as well.  Neither defense has come close to seeing an offense as explosive as they one they will be trying to tame Saturday.  I expect a shootout in Norman today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron +28.5

I love fading teams in South Carolina's situation this week.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 36-33 home loss to LSU last week with ESPN's College GameDay in attendance.  It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat to face Akron this week, and they have Ole Miss on deck.  That makes this a massive sandwich spot for the Gamecocks stepping out of conference to face a MAC school sandwiched in between those two huge SEC games.

That's no two very physical games in a row against Kentucky and LSU for the Gamecocks.  They didn't come away unscathed as they lost their starting QB and will likely be starting a backup, but either way the Gamecocks aren't very good at the position.

This South Carolina offense leaves a lot to be desired.  They rank 114th at 312.7 yards per game and 112th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are averaging just 147.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st.  They had misleading wins over both Kentucky and Old Dominion.

Their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener was very concerning.  Both of their touchdowns came after turnovers on drive starting inside the ODU 10-yard line.  They were outgained by the Monarchs in that game, and I think we see them struggle similarly against Akron this week given the terrible spot for them.

Akron actually held its own against Ohio State in the opener.  The Zips were only down 17-3 at halftime before Ohio State got two defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half to pull away.  They held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 404 total yards.  They predictably struggled against Rutgers the next week as that's a brutal stretch of two physical Big Ten opponents.

The Zips came out flat in Week 3 falling behind Colgate 17-0.  But they dusted themselves off and outscored Colgate 31-3 the rest of the way.  QB Ben Finley was impressive with 358 passing yards and 4 TD and he is a Power-4 level QB after transferring in from NC State.  Joe Moorhead is in his 3rd season at Akron and has brought in some great recruits to make the Zips competitive.

Sure, Moorhead is just 4-20 in his first two seasons, but the Zips have been much more competitive than that record shows.  In fact, they 12 of those 20 losses have come by 11 points or less, they have just been unfortunate in close games.  They are one of the most undervalued teams in the country this season as a result.  Bet Akron Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +23

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  I said the Falcons wouldn't be intimidated by Penn State in Week 2, and that proved to be the case.  They took the Nittany Lions to the wire in a 34-27 road loss as 34-point underdogs.

This despite not having Stewart at RB due to injury.  Bazelak did most of it with his arm with 254 passing yards and 2 TD while finding Fannin 11 times for 137 yards and a score.  Now Bowling Green has a bye week to get healthy, and they should have Stewart back this week and be fresh and ready to test themselves against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M.

This is a potential flat spot for the Aggies, who beat Florida 33-20 on the road last week, and now could get caught looking ahead to Arkansas next week.  This is a sandwich spot for the Aggies as they won't be nearly as excited to face Bowling Green as they were Florida or as they will be against Arkansas.  Just being a little flat will make it difficult for them to cover this lofty 23-point spread.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/South Florida OVER 65

These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country squaring off down in the heat in Tampa, Florida Saturday night and it will be a game filled with offensive fireworks.  I think the Bulls can go score for score with the Hurricanes in an absolute shootout.

South Florida ranks 6th in the country in tempo with just 21.9 seconds in between snaps thus far.  The Bulls returned 10 starts on offense from a unit that put up 31.9 points per game and 452 yards per game last season.  They are even better this season, hanging 48 points on Bethune-Cookman and 49 points on Southern Miss.  They only managed 16 points against Alabama, but they had their opportunities.

I love sophomore QB Byrum Brown, who completed 65% of his passes for 3,292 yards and a 26-to-11 TD INT ratio, while also rushing for 809 yards and 11 scores last year.  He is a dual-threat who is one of the best QB's in the country that not too many folks know about.

Miami's offense looks electric with the addition of QB Cam Ward from Washington State.  The Hurricanes hung 41 points on Florida, 56 on Florida A&M and 62 on Ball State in their first three games.  Ward is quickly climbing up the Heisman Trophy odds board completing 73% of his passes for 1,035 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Miami hasn't been tested yet, so they haven't had to put the throttle down offensively.  They will have to try to go score for score with USF this week because the Bulls will be by far the best offense they have faced.  But they should have plenty of success against a USF defense that allowed 32.2 points per game last season, and while they may be improved this season, they don't get to see many offenses as good as this Miami unit.  They allowed 42 points to Alabama two games ago, and 24 points and 487 yards to a bad Southern Miss offense last week.  

South Florida and its opponents have combined for at least 62 points in 16 of their last 21 regular season games, including 65 points or more in 13 of those.  The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and how poor they are defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +18

The South Florida Bulls are loaded this season with 18 returning starters for one of the best young coaches in college football in Alex Golesh.  He led the Bulls to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with a 45-0 win over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Now the Bulls have been nothing short of impressive in their first three games this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with blowout wins over Bethune-Cookman 48-3 and Southern Miss 49-24.  It was impressive that they avoided the letdown last week with that 25-point win at USM as 13-point favorites.

They were coming off their deflating, misleading 42-16 loss at Alabama as 30.5-point dogs the previous week.  And they had this game against Miami on deck, making it a big sandwich spot.  They showed a lot of maturity last week, and they will be ready for their 'National Championship' at home against Miami this week.

The 42-16 loss to Alabama was much closer than the final score.  The Bulls had a chance to tie that game with just under 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but settled for a 22-yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and goal from the 5 when they were down 8.  The Crimson Tide managed to score 3 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes to turn a 21-16 game into a 42-16 game.  The Bulls let go of the rope after that short FG.  They actually had more first downs than Alabama and held them below 400 total yards.  It was the 2nd consecutive year they took the Crimson Tide to the wire.

No question Miami has been impressive this season.  But they have also benefited from a very soft schedule.  Their win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now as the Gators look like one of the worst teams in the SEC.  They beat FCS Florida A&M 56-9 as 48-point favorites and Ball State 62-0 as 37-point favorites.  Ball State is a rebuilding team that only returned one starter on defense this season.

The Hurricanes will finally face a team with a pulse this week in South Florida.  I like this Miami team both offensively with Cam Ward and defensively with all their talent, but this is the type of game head coach Mario Cristobal could blow.  I don't trust him to make the right decisions as he has blown it time and time again as a head coach.  Miami has its ACC opener on deck against Virginia Tech on Friday and could get caught looking ahead to that game as well.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on East Carolina/Liberty OVER 52.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team this season with their shift to an up-tempo, Air Raid offense.  They rank 5th in the country in tempo at 21 seconds in between snaps.  They haven't been as efficient as they'd like, but with three games now under their belts that should change moving forward.

I think we are getting great value on this OVER 52.5 because ECU has actually gone under the total in their first three games due to not turning their yardage into points and tempo into points.  They are putting up 432 yards per game with a balanced attack of 143 rushing yards per game and 289 passing yards per game.

Now they face an elite offense in Liberty that they are going to have to go score for score with in this one.  Liberty put up 38.3 points per game and 499 yards per game last season.  They brought back QB Kaidon Salter, who had a 32-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season while also rushing for 1,089 yards and 12 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country.  RB Quinton Cooley is back after rushing for 1,401 yards and 16 TD last season.

The Flames have averaged 471 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far in 2024.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against UTEP in which they took knees at the 1-yard line in the final seconds which is also adding to our value here on this OVER.  This is a great contrarian OVER game after the results from both teams last week with ECU playing a lower-scoring game against Appalachian State as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +21.5

I think the Missouri Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.

Missouri is the No. 7 ranked team in the country currently.  With that Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to.  I took advantage and backed Boston College +17 last week in a 27-21 road loss to Missouri.  And I'll gladly fade the Tigers again with Vanderbilt +21.5 in their SEC opener against the Tigers this week.

Vanderbilt is clearly an improved team that brought back 15 starters this season.  They proved it with their 34-27 upset home win as 13-point underdogs to Virginia Tech in the opener.  That's a VA Tech team that many thought would contend for an ACC title because they finished strong last year and brought 21 starters from that team.  They still may very well contend for an ACC title.

The Commodores avoided the letdown in Week 2 with a 55-0 win over Alcorn State as 33.5-point favorites.  But the letdown came last week with their 36-32 outright loss to Georgia State as 8.5-point road favorites.  They were likely caught looking ahead to Missouri this week.  That result is providing us extra line value this week that we will take advantage of.  Had they beaten Georgia State, this line would likely be closer to 14 instead of 21.5.

Eight of the last 10 meetings were decided by 17 points or fewer, including 10 points or fewer in seven of those 10 meetings.  The Tigers will get more of a fight from the Commodores than they bargained for.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Navy +10

The Memphis Tigers were one of the top contenders to make the playoffs from the Group of 5 coming into the season.  They won the game they had to last week, upsetting Florida State on the road.  Now this is a clear flat spot for the Tigers off that big win against an ACC opponent.

But Florida State is no good this season, getting upset as double-digit favorites by both Georgia Tech and Boston College before getting upset as 6.5-point favorites against Memphis.  So let's not crown the Tigers just yet.  I wouldn't be surprise if they lose outright to Navy this week, and at the very least they should not be double-digit favorites given this obvious flat spot.

I also like what I've seen from Navy this season.  Brian Newberry stepped into a tough situation in his first season at Navy last year and held up well with a 5-7 record.  Now he has 14 starters back this season, which is a ton for a service academy.

Navy beat Bucknell 49-21 as 31.5-point favorites in the opener and crushed Temple 38-11 as 11.5-point favorites in Week 2.  Now the Midshipmen have had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis after receiving a bye last week.  That is another big advantage in their favor.

This Navy offense is really clicking with 280.5 rushing yards per game and 142.5 passing yards per game.  The catalyst is QB Blake Horvath, who has rushed for 155 yards and 3 scores while also throwing for 220 yards and 3 TD.  They key to these triple-option offenses is always the QB, and Navy looks to have a good one this season.

Memphis only beat Navy 28-24 as 11-point home favorites last season.  The Midshipmen outgained them by 24 yards and racked up 299 yards on the ground.  This Memphis defense is their weakness again and they can be had.  I think the Midshipmen keep this game close for four quarters with a great shot to pull off the upset in the end.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Army -5

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive season.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.  Army went on to upset Florida Atlanta 24-7 on the road in Week 2 while outgaining the Owls 449 to 235 in a dominant effort.

Keep in mind Florida Atlantic showed well in their other two games, making that win by Army look even more impressive.  FAU only lost 16-10 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs and topped Florida International 38-20 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now Army is coming off a bye week giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Rice. The Owls made a bowl game each of the last two seasons, but it looks like head coach Mike Bloomgren has lost his touch this season.  The losses of QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey have proven to be too much to overcome.

This Rice offense looks awful thus far to say the least.  The Owls lost 34-14 as 10-point home favorites to Sam Houston State, failing to cover by 30 points with just 274 total yards on offense.  Last week, the Owls lost 33-7 at Houston as 4.5-point dogs, failing to cover by 21.5 points.  They only managed 159 total yards against the Cougars.

I don't think Rice can keep up with Army this week.  The Owls allowed 237 rushing yards to Houston and 178 rushing yards to Sam Houston State.  Now they must face an Army rushing attack that will likely wind up being the best in the country.  They are averaging 390 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry thus far.  Bet Army Saturday. 

20* San Jose State/Washington State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +14.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  They beat a quality FCS team in Sacramento State 42-24 as 2.5-point favorites, upset Air Force 17-7 as 3-point road dogs and covered as 16.5-point home favorites in a 31-10 win over Kennesaw State.  Ken Niumatalolo found a good landing spot here at San Jose State because Brent Brennan did not leave the cupboard bare.

Washington State has been underrated up to this point as well going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS including upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington in their last two.  And that win over Washington in the Apple Cup last week is the reason I'm fading the Cougars here.  This is a clear letdown spot off their 'Super Bowl', and they won't care nearly as much about beating San Jose State this week as they cared about beating Washington last week.

It's also worth mentioning those were two misleading finals as well.  Texas Tech had 491 yards while Washington State had 416 yards, yet the Red Raiders lost by 21 due to committing 4 turnovers.  Washington lost 24-19 despite outgaining Washington State 452 to 381 for the game as well.  Those misleading finals have the Cougars way overvalued now.  We'll take advantage.  

San Jose State is allowing 248.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play while Washington State is allowing 464 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  I'll gladly back the better defense at a nice value here tonight.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

15* Illinois/Nebraska FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43.5

Both Illinois and Nebraska are dead nuts UNDER teams that rely on defense to win games and play at a very slow tempo.  Illinois ranks 122nd in the country at 30.3 seconds in between snaps, while Nebraska ranks 115th at 29.8 seconds.

Nebraska brought back eight starters from a unit that allowed just 18.3 points per game and 304 yards per game last season.  They are allowing 6.7 points per game, 255.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Colorado and UTEP.

Illinois is allowing 8.7 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  This despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Kansas and Central Michigan.  They held the Jayhawks to 17 points and the Chippewas to 9 points.

Nebraska and its opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in 18 of its last 20 games overall, including 42 or fewer in 15 of those.  Illinois is 3-0 UNDER in all games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in all three, including 40 or fewer in the last two.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the two meetings over the last two seasons with 35 and 27 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* South Alabama/App State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64

Two great offenses square off against two of the worst defenses in the country Thursday night in what should be a shootout in the Sun Belt.  The forecast looks good for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, zero wind and only a small chance of rain.

South Alabama ranks 11th in the country at 512.3 yards per game and 10th at 7.7 yards per play.  New head coach Major Applewhite was their offensive coordinator last season and has another elite offense, but the defense is really hurting with the loss of defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama.

The Jaguars only have three starters back on defense and lose six of their top seven tacklers.  Their defense allowed 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas, and 27 points and 404 total yards to Ohio.

Appalachian State has scored at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.  They have another great offense this season led by senior QB Joey Aguilar, who had a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 456 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season despite facing two good defenses in Clemson and East Carolina.  This will be their easiest test yet.

Appalachian State ranks 128th in the country allowing 7.0 yards per play this season.  They allowed 66 points to Clemson.  We have two offensive-minded head coaches that aren't that concerned with playing defense here tonight.  Plus, Appalachian State has a couple defensive starters that have to sit out the 1H due to targeting penalties.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Colorado State UNDER 59

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Colorado and Colorado State will be meeting for a 2nd consecutive season after Colorado's thrilling 43-35 (2 OT) win last year.  This was a 21-14 game in the 4th quarter with just 35 combined points.  It was tied at 28-28 at the end of regulation for 56 combined points.  I think the UNDER 59 has some value here in the rematch after going for just 56 at the end of regulation last year.

Colorado State is going to go with a run-heavy approach to try and take advantage of the interior of this Colorado defense.  Their strength is in their secondary.  The Rams are going to try and play a ball control game, which they practiced last week rushing for 224 yards in a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado after getting shut out 52-0 by Texas in the opener.

Colorado is a one-dimensional passing team with a terrible offensive line and zero threat of a rushing attack.  That makes them much easier to stop, and it keeps Shedeur Sanders under pressure all game.  That was the case last week as the Buffaloes rushed for just 16 yards on 22 carries against Nebraska, and Sanders was sacked 6 times in a 28-10 defeat.  Even in a shootout against North Dakota State in their opener it only saw 57 combined points in a 31-26 win by the Buffaloes.  Colorado rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries.

Colorado State has played in 8 consecutive games that saw 55 or fewer combined points dating back to last season, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have an underrated defense, and their offense is nowhere near the levels many expected it would be under Jay Norvell.  Five of Colorado's last seven games have seen 57 or fewer combined points as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia/Kentucky ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

There is a decent chance of rain Saturday at Kentucky but we're not going to need it to cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  These are two of the slowest offenses in the country as Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play while Georgia ranks 125th.  Both teams like to slow it to a crawl and rely on defense.

Georgia has allowed a total of 6 points through two games against Clemson and Tennessee Tech.  They allowed 3 points to a Clemson team that just hung 66 on Appalachian State last week.  This Georgia defense may be the best in the country again.

Kentucky hangs its hat on defense every year because they always have a suspect offense.  That is the case again this season.  Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 in the opener.  They managed just 317 total yards and held USM to 131 total yards.  Last week, Kentucky lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina.  The Wildcats managed just 183 total yards of offense while holding the Gamecocks to 252 total yards, but they had a defensive touchdown otherwise it would have been a 24-6 final.

Kentucky starting QB Vandagriff got hurt against South Carolina and may not go this week.  That would leave the QB duties to Wimsatt, the Rutgers transfer who started for them last year but was more of a runner than a passer.  The Wildcats may have to go 'wildcat' with Wimsatt, no pun intended.  There's a very good chance Georgia shuts them out, and I would be surprised if they topped 7 points in this one.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 17, 21, 22 and 43 combined points in the four games that went under the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

Colorado State gets to host Colorado on campus for the first time since 1996.  This is a massive deal for them, and adding to their motivation is that the Rams want revenge from a brutal 43-35 (2 OT) loss to Colorado last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 7 minutes of regulation.

Colorado State outgained Colorado 499 to 418 in that meeting last year.  QB Fowler-Nicolosi completed 34-of-47 passes for 367 yards and 3 TD and 3 INT in the loss, and he is back this season to redeem himself.  1st-Team All-MWC WR Tory Horton had 16 receptions for 133 yards and a score in the defeat, and he is back for revenge as well.

Jay Norvell has 14 starters in all back this season in Year 3, which is where coaches usually make their biggest leaps with their new programs.  The 52-0 loss to Texas in the opener was a setback, but Texas may be the best team in the country after beating Michigan 31-12 on the road last week.

The Rams bounced back with a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado last week.  They got their ground game going with 224 rushing yards and that will be an emphasis this week after watching Colorado get shredded on the ground thus far.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Colorado then went on to fall behind 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska last week before the Huskers called off the dogs in the second half.  The Buffaloes managed just 16 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Sanders was sacked 6 times and under duress the entire game behind a shotty Colorado offensive line.  The Buffaloes are terrible up front on offense and on defense, and that is going to be their undoing again this week as well.  

Sanders threw his O-Line under the bus and I question how badly they want to have his back this week.  This team has no business being more than a TD road favorite against a Colorado State team that is going to play the little brother roll and want it more.  This is a game I fully expect the Rams to win outright.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are loaded this season under 1st-year head coach Curt Cignetti.  He led James Madison to a 19-4 record the last two years and he is going to turn around this Indiana program in a hurry.

Cignetti has 21 returning starters when you count all the transfers he brought in with him from James Madison and other schools.  The Hoosiers are off to a fast start beating Florida International 31-7 at home and Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 45-point favorite.  That's a FIU team that went on to beat Central Michigan 52-16 last week.

QB Kurtis Roarke comes over from Ohio and has been impressive, completing 73.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The backfield is loaded with three RB's that have already topped 100 rushing yards.  The receiving room is loaded with JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and returnee Omar Cooper Jr., who have combined for 23 receptions for 392 yards and 2 TD.  The defense returns 11 starters and hasn't given up an inch.

So it's a team I'm very high on in Indiana up against a team I am very down on in UCLA, which will turn out to be on the worst Power 4 teams in the country this season.  Head coach Chip Kelly bolted for Ohio State, and a lot of their best players transferred out.  Plus they lost defensive coordinator Lynn to USC.

Former UCLA RB Deshaun Foster doesn't have any previous head coaching experience and steps into a very tough situation.  The Bruins only have 12 starters back and a ton of new faces.  They were far from impressive in their 16-13 win at Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Hawaii team that was in a 7-point game in the 4th quarter as 40.5-point home favorites against Delaware State the week prior.  They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive against the upstart Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UTSA +36

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTSA and 'sell high' on Texas.  UTSA is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS while Texas is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  The Longhorns are coming off a huge 31-12 win at Michigan to prove they are playoff contenders once again.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as they return home to face UTSA.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 49-10 loss at Texas State on the road.  While concerning, I believe Texas State is a serious contender to represent the Group of 5 in the college football playoff.  It wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score as the Roadrunners were outgained by 186 yards.

UTSA was the favorite to win the AAC coming into the season with 14 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season.  There were some big losses at QB and WR, but the Miners are much better than they have shown thus far.  Plus, Jeff Traylor is one of the best head coaches in the country and won't let his team pack it in.  Of course, it won't be hard to get up to face Texas this week, and they may have been looking ahead to this game.

This line would have been less than 4 touchdowns if it had been played in Week 1.  Instead, we are getting about 10 points of value here on UTSA +36 due to what we have seen thus far from both of these teams.  I know we'll get a big effort from the Roadrunners, and if Texas brings anything less than its 'A-game', it will not cover this inflated number.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +2.5

East Carolina head coach Mike Houston has been here before.  Not much is expected of the Pirates this season off a 2-10 campaign last year where just 10 starters returned from a team that finished 8-5 and was one of the program's best.

Now Houston is hungry to get back to that level and has 14 starters returning and a great recruiting class coming in.  The Pirates have been mighty impressive in their 2-0 start this season, and this is one of the better home-field advantages in the country in Greenville when this team is good.

It started with a 42-3 win as 31-point favorites over Norfolk State in Week 1.  Then last week the Pirates went on the road and upset Old Dominion 20-14 as 1.5-point dogs.  That's the same Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road in a 23-19 defeat that saw the Gamecocks score both of their touchdowns off ODU turnovers inside their own 10-yard line.  South Carolina went on to beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road last week, making that win over ODU look even more impressive.

It was also a bigger blowout than the 20-14 final would indicate.  ECU outgained ODU 466 to 287, or 179 total yards.  They overcame 4 INT from Jake Garcia.  He will be much more comfortable at home, where he threw for 308 yards and 4 TD against Norfolk State in the opener.

Appalachian State was among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season, but I'm not buying it with what I've seen them them thus far.  They failed to cover in a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State as 32.5-point favorites in their opener.  And last week they were blasted 66-20 by Clemson as 17-point dogs, which is the same Clemson offense that managed just 3 points against Georgia.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime!  They racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.  Garcia and company can name their number in this one.  Wrong team favored.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on App State/ECU OVER 60

East Carolina has switched its offense into an up-tempo, air raid this season.  The Pirates rank 9th in seconds per play and now face a Appalachian State team that also likes to play up-tempo, ranking 30th in seconds per play.  This has the makings of a shootout today folks.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime in their 66-20 win last week that saw 86 combined points.  The Tigers racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.

East Carolina QB Jeff Garcia is making plays but he is also making a lot of mistakes, which could lead to easy points for the Mountaineers.  Garcia is completing 65% of his passes with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio with 591 yard and 8.0 per attempt.  No question this ECU offense is explosive and can pretty much name their number on this Appalachian State defense.

The strength of the Mountaineers is their offense and it may be the best unit on the field Saturday.  Senior QB Joey Aguilar returns after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  He has each of his top four receivers back as well, so there is some chemistry here.  The Mountaineers have averaged at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.

These teams played in a shootout last season as Appalachian State won 43-28 for 71 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, especially with the Pirates going to the new up-tempo offense this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +11

The Purdue Boilermakers are going to prove to be one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten this season and I'm very high on them to surprise.  Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is doing big things here after leading one of the best defenses in the country under Bret Bielema.

After having just 10 starters back in a 4-8 campaign in his first season last year, Walters now has 14 starters back in Year 2.  He has recruited some tremendous talent here while hitting the transfer portal hard.

It looks like he has found a gem in former Texas QB Hudson Card, who went 24-of-25 passing for 273 yards and 4 TD in a season-opening 49-0 win over Indiana State as a 35-point favorite.  The Boilermakers had last week off, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Notre Dame, which puts them at a big rest and preparation advantage.

Notre Dame came into the season getting a lot of hype, but that hype was mainly due to their defense and having one of the softest schedules in the country.  They lived up to the hype with a 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M, but that win was aided by some injuries early in the game to the Aggies' offensive line.

The Fighting Irish came back with the upset of the year and lost outright 16-14 to MAC foe Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite last week.  That defeat all but eliminates them from playoff contention, and I question how they will get back up off the mat.

I know for certain the Fighting Irish should not be laying 11 points on the road to this upstart Purdue team with the offense they are putting on the field.  The Fighting Irish are starting 5 underclassmen along the offensive line, and it's a big problem breaking in 5 new starters.  Plus one of their starters is already hurt.

Former Duke QB Riley Leonard has only rushed for 79 yards on 23 carries for an average of 3.4 per carry through two games.  He has only thrown for 321 yards with a 0-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far as well.  He has a banged up left shoulder, and he is an inaccurate passer.  This offense has taken a big step back from where they were a year ago.  

Notre Dame has gone to the wire in two consecutive games and may not have much left in the tank for the Boilermakers, who couldn't be more fresh and prepared for this one.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Boston College +17

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.

Castellanos and company got their revenge in a 28-13 road win at Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about this win as they dominated the point of attack on both offensive and defensive lines.  More impressive yet was the Eagles avoiding the letdown just five days later, beating Duquesne 56-0 as 35.5-point favorites.

Now the Eagles will be ready to prove themselves against a SEC opponent in Missouri.  I think the Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the covering department this week as they take a big step up in class against Boston College.  The Tigers have their SEC opener on deck next week and could be looking ahead as well.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.  Boston College is the team flying under the radar right now and will be looking to put their name on the map this week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/South Carolina UNDER 50.5

The forecast could help us cash this UNDER 50.5 ticket between LSU and South Carolina on Saturday.  There is a 60% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds in the forecast.  I don't think it will matter given both teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses thus far.

South Carolina looks like a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Gamecocks managed just 288 total yards in their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener.  They had two drives start inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line due to turnovers too to get their only two touchdowns.

Last week, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6 in an absolute slug fest.  The Gamecocks only managed 252 total yards and held the Wildcats to 183 total yards.  They are now allowing just 244 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play through two games.

LSU managed to hold USC to 27 points in the opener on a fast turf.  That's the same USC team that hung 48 points on Utah State last week.  The Tigers lost their Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Jaden Daniels along with all of their top playmakers.   They also lost their offensive coordinator, and now they are a much more defensive-minded team in 2024.

South Carolina ranks 79th in seconds per play going 27.8 seconds in between snaps thus far.  QB LaNorris Sellers is one of the worst Power 4 QB's in the country.  But 8 starters are back on defense including six of their top seven tacklers for defensive-minded Shane Beamer.  But the big change is LSU, which ranks 116th in seconds per play at 30.9 seconds in between snaps.  They have changed from an up-tempo team last season to a ball control team this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +20.5

Oklahoma State is coming off the most misleading win of Week 2 after having another misleading win in Week 1.  These two results have the Cowboys way overvalued, and they are laying way too many points on the road against Tulsa this week as a result.

Oklahoma State is getting a lot of hype heading into the season after finishing 10-4 last season and making it to the Big 12 title game.  But it was all smoke and mirrors for the most part as the Cowboys were actually outgained on the season with a defense that gave up 442 yards per game.  They were outgained by 17 yards per game in Big 12 play alone.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys with the lofty preseason expectations that come with returning 19 starters from that team.  That's especially the case after a misleading 44-20 win over South Dakota State as a 13-point favorite in the opener, which is a SDSU team ranked No. 1 in the FCS.  

The Cowboys only outgained the Jackrabbits 394 to 388, or by 6 total yards.  The Jackrabbits actually outgained them 6.0 to 5.5 yards per play as well.  They held the Cowboys to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and held 1st-team All-American RB Ollie Gordon to 126 yards on 28 carries.  This game was much closer than the 44-20 final.

Then last week, Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 (OT) at home despite getting outgained 648 to 385 by the Razorbacks, or by 263 total yards.  No question Arkansas deserved to win that game but was -2 in turnovers and missed a couple field goals.

After using a lot of energy in that OT win, this is now a flat spot for the Cowboys going on the road to face Tulsa.  It is also a sandwich spot with their huge Big 12 opener on deck against Utah next week, which could decide which of those two teams wins the conference.  The Cowboys just want to get out of here with a win and they aren't concerned about margin at all.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Tulsa as they were Arkansas, or as they will be against Utah.

It was a rebuilding season in Year 1 last season for head coach Kevin Wilson.  He only had 9 starters back and Tulsa went just 4-8.  But now he has a lot of his players in place and has recruited some very good talent here.  I like what I've seen from the Golden Hurricane thus far in Year 2.

It started with a 62-28 win over Northwestern State in the opener.  And last week the Golden Hurricane gave Arkansas State all they wanted in a 28-24 road loss as 9-point dogs.  That's a very good Arkansas State team under Butch Jones and I think they contend for a Sun Belt title, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.

Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Francis has been impressive, comlpeting 67.2% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  Avant, Jackson and Watkins have combined for over 300 rushing yards as this is a nice three-headed monster in the backfield.  Kamdyn Benjamin was their leading receiver last year and has 11 receptions for 196 yards and two TD thus far through two games.  

They will have success against a Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 518 yards per game through two games, including 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per attempt through the air.  They will never be out of this game and the back door will be open if we need it, but I don't think we will.  The Golden Hurricane get to play the 'little brother' role here and will simply want it more.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* UNLV/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNLV +7.5

UNLV went 9-5 and made the Mountain West Championship Game in Barry Odom's first season on the job last year.  Odom has put this team on the map and players want to come play for him.  He has 11 returning starters plus a tremendous recruiting class this season, and the Rebels are MWC contenders once again.

That was evident with their 27-7 upset win at Houston in the opener as 3.5-point dogs.  That's the same Houston team that went on to nearly upset Oklahoma on the road last week in a 16-12 loss as 27.5-point dogs, making that win over the Cougars all the more impressive.

UNLV easily could have had a letdown against Utah Tech last week off the Houston win and with Kansas on deck, but they showed great maturity in dismantling Utah Tech 72-14 as 41.5-point favorites.  Now they want revenge on Kansas after losing 49-36 to the Jayhawks in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, adding fuel to the fire.

UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is a dual-threat that looks for contact from defenders, and his team follows his lead.  Sluka has a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio passing through two games, while also leading the team in rushing with 129 yards and a score while averaging 6.4 per attempt.  The Rebels are averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense and are vastly improved on D.

Kansas came into the season ranked and they probably didn't deserve to be.  They went 9-4 last season and expectations were high, so it's a good time to 'sell high' on them early in the season.  Kansas failed to cover as a 49.5-point favorite in their opener against Lindenwood as they only scored 48 points.  Then they promptly lost 23-17 as 5-point road favorites at Illinois against a Fighting Illini team that was expected to be down this year.

QB Jalon Daniels has been solid when he has been healthy, but he has been through so many injuries you know it's in his head.  Jason Bean played well in his place last year and moved on to the NFL, and I'm not sure Daniels is better than Bean was.  Daniels is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio while only rushing for 35 yards on 10 carries thus far despite facing a weak schedule.  

A sneaky loss for Kansas this offseason was offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State.  Daniels and company look a bit lost without him thus far.  I think this improved UNLV defense can hold them in check as well and possibly pull off the outright upset Friday night.  Kansas should be the fresher team after the blowout win over Utah Tech, while Kansas was in a war with physical Illinois.  UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* ASU/Texas State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +2

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

Everyone sees that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite in Week 1.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to their huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

We got the more true version of Texas State last week in their 49-10 beat down of UTSA as a 2.5-point home favorite.  They outgained the Miners 504 to 318, or by 186 total yards.  Granted, this wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score, but it was still another dominant effort in the box score.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes for 547 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a pair of scores through two games.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He has rushed for 182 yards and a touchdown in two games.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He has 10 receptions for 143 yards and 2 TD thus far.

Arizona State is improved this season but is certainly getting too much credit for its 2-0 start.  The Sun Devils beat Wyoming 48-7 in Week 1, but that's the same Wyoming team that went on to get upset by FCS Idaho at home in Week 2.  Last week they beat Mississippi State 30-23 as a 6.5-point favorite, but the Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  This will be ASU's toughest test yet, and they should not be road favorites here.

Texas State has a huge rest advantage getting to stay at home and play on a short week here Thursday.  They will also be on ESPN for the first time in a very long time, and they will take advantage of their opportunity to make their case in front of a National TV audience that they should be the Group of 5 representative in the playoff.  Arizona State must travel to Texas State on this short week after a physical game against Mississippi State, while the Bobcats made easy work of UTSA and will still be fresh as a result.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* Colorado/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska -7

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

The Huskers were sharp in their 40-7 win over UTEP as 27.5-point home favorites in the opener.  Raiola lived up to the hype, completing 19 of 27 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover.  

Now the Huskers want revenge from a 36-14 loss at Colorado last year.  The Huskers committed 4 turnovers to give the game away in what was a closer game than the final score would indicate.  Now Nebraska gets Colorado at home this time around and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Deion Sanders coming to town, and fans gushing with optimism about this team.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Nebraska will get enough stops here and will likely score at will against this soft Colorado defense to cover this 7-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Western Michigan +38.5

Ohio State is the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  We saw that play out last week against Akron as the Buckeyes failed to cover as 49-point favorites.

The Buckeyes won that game 52-6, but it was much closer than that.  This was a 17-3 game at halftime.  Ohio State scored two defensive touchdowns in the win.  They only gained 404 total yards against Akron.  Now they must face a much better team from the MAC in Western Michigan, and they should not be laying 38.5 points to them.

The Broncos are a contender to win the MAC this season.  Second-year head coach Lance Taylor has a much better team this season with 17 starters back after returning only 10 starters in his first season last year.  They return nine starters on offense including stud QB Hayden Wolff, 1,000-yard rusher Jalen Buckley and their leading receiver in Kenneth Womack.  Eight starters are back on defense and 11 of their top 14 tacklers return.

Western Michigan was very impressive in a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs in the opener.  The Broncos actually led that game 14-13 in the 4th quarter and had the Badgers on the ropes.  Wolff completed 12-of-18 passes and Buckey rushed for two touchdowns in the loss.  The defense was the most impressive, holding the Badgers to 388 total yards and only 4.7 yards per play.  They are more than capable of staying within 38 points of the Buckeyes.  Bet Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern/Nevada OVER 55

This is a very low total for a game involving Georgia Southern.  The Eagles put up 30.2 points per game last season and allowed 30.5 points per game.  Six of their final seven games last season saw 62 or more combined points.

The Eagles opened with a 56-45 shootout loss to Boise State this season that saw a whopping 101 combined points.  Putting up 45 points and 461 total yards on that Boise State defense is no small feat.  The Eagles also ran at the 5th-fastest tempo of any team in Week 1 averaging 21.2 seconds between offensive snaps.  That won't change all season.

Nevada looks vastly improved offensively this season.  The Wolf Pack put up 24 points on a very good SMU defense in the opener.  They then scored 28 points on what was a very good Troy defense last season.  QB Brendon Lewis is completing 67.4% of his passes with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far while also rushing for 111 yards in two games.

The OVER is 7-1 in Georgia Southern's last eight games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Nevada's last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Alabama/Ohio OVER 55.5

Offensive-minded Major Applewhite takes over for defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who was just hired as defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Applewhite was the offensive coordinator here the last three seasons and led the Jaguars to 33.1 points per game last season and 31.2 points per game in 2022.

The South Alabama defense only returns three starters this year and could be one of worst stop units in the country.  That was in display when they lost 52-38 to North Texas in their opener in a game that saw 90 combined points.  They allowed 550 total yards including 446 passing to the Mean Green.

But South Alabama had a big day offensively and ran at one of the fastest tempos in college football last week.  The Jaguars had 582 total yards themselves.  Gio Lopez, who led South Alabama to a 59-10 win over Eastern Michigan in their bowl game last year, is the new QB.  He accounted for a school record 494 yards and 4 total TD with 432 passing and 62 rushing.

Ohio lost 38-22 to Syracuse in the opener.  The Orange had 480 total yards while the Bobcats had 436 total yards in what could have been an even bigger shootout if not for four field goals.  This Ohio defense only returned four starters and is going through some growing pains early.  But I liked what I saw from this Ohio offense, especially Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus, who rushed for 203 yards and 2 TD on what was supposed to be a solid Syracuse defense.

With South Alabama playing at a rapid pace, this game should easily see OVER 55.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Group of 5 ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -2.5

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on Texas State.  Everyone will see that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite last week.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to this huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He went 21-of-30 for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns in the opener.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He rushed for 156 yards and a score in the opener.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He had 6 receptions for 91 yards and 2 TD in the opener.

UTSA returns 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last season.  But the losses are big for the Roadrunners.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in QB Frank Harris (11,858 yards) who was the biggest reason for their success over the last five seasons.  They lose their all-time leading receiver in Joseph Cephus (3,639 yards).  They also lose their best defensive player in AAC Defensive Player of the Year Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks last year.

Much more concerning than Texas State's 34-27 win over Lamar was UTSA's lackluster 28-16 win over Kennesaw State as a 23.5-point favorite.  This is Kennesaw State's first season as a FBS member.  They went 3-6 last season at the FCS level and could be the worst team in the FBS this season.  UTSA managed just 76 rushing yards on 34 carries against Kennesaw, averaging a paltry 2.2 yards per carry.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa CBS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes own the Iowa State Cyclones.  They have gone 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and should be more than 2.5-point favorites in Iowa City at home in this rivalry game Saturday.

Iowa returned 18 starters this season.  They have a healthy QB in Cade McNamara to start the season and finally a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester from Western Michigan.  They have one of the best defenses in the country once again.

The new offense produced 492 total yards in a 40-0 win over Illinois State, which was ranked 19th in FCS coming into the season.  The 492 total yards are their most since 2019.  In fact, the Hawkeyes got 3 receiving touchdowns from their wide receivers, and they had 3 all of last season!

Iowa State was much less impressive in their 21-3 win over North Dakota as a 30-point favorite.  North Dakota was ranked 24th in FCS coming into the season.  This game was much closer than the 18-point margin would indicate.  The Cyclones only outgained the Eagles 353 to 295, or by 58 total yards.  They allowed 174 rushing yards to the Eagles.

Most concerning for the Cyclones was rushing for 86 yards on 22 carries themselves, and if they can't run it against Iowa they have no shot as a one-dimensional passing team.  Iowa State has injuries on the offensive line and at RB that are concerning, plus they are without their two best linebackers in Caleb Bacon and Will McClaughlin, who both finished in the Top 5 in tackles last year.  Bacon is the leader of the defense and was lost against North Dakota, while McClaughlin will miss the first two games at least.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +29.5

Notre Dame is in quite the sandwich spot here.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their massive 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M.  They have a road game at Purdue on deck next week, and sandwiched in between is this contest against MAC opponent Northern Illinois.  I expect the Fighting Irish to be flat and to not worry about trying to get margin in this game.

Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country, but a suspect offense due to having three freshmen and two sophomores on the offensive line.  They didn't do much against Texas A&M, and they will struggle to even score 28 points in this one, which is going to make it hard to cover this 29.5-point spread.  I love taking big underdogs against defensive-minded teams like Notre Dame.

Northern Illinois went 7-6 last season and is a legit contender to win the MAC this season, so they are no pushover.  The Huskies return 16 starters this season, including eight from a defense that allowed just 21.0 points per game and 320 yards per game a year ago.  This could be the best defense in the MAC.

Northern Illinois was impressive in its 54-15 win over Western Illinois as a 35.5-point favorite.  The Huskies led 41-3 less than two minutes into the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  New QB Ethan Hampton went 18-of-20 for 328 yards and 5 TD in the win.  RB Antario Brown rushed for 1,296 yards and 10 TD last year and had 69 yards on 8 carries in the opener.  WR Trayvon Rudolph had 531 receiving yards and 2 TD last year while also rushing for 182 yards and a score.  Rudolph had 4 receptions for 104 yards and 2 rushed for 67 yards and 2 total TD in the win.

Northern Illinois is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games a road underdog.  They have 36 seniors on their roster and upset Boston College on the road last year.  Notre Dame beat Central Michigan 41-17 as a 34-point favorite last year.  They lost 26-21 as a 20-point favorite against Marshall in 2022.  They beat Toledo 32-29 as a 17-point favorite in 2021.  They are notorious for not getting margin against these Group of 5 teams earlier in the season.  Asking them to win by more than 4 TD to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -12

Hugh Freeze is one of my favorite coaches to back in all of college football.  He turned around Ole Miss and Liberty and now he is going to turn around Auburn.  This is his 2nd season on the job and they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a 6-7 campaign in his first season last year.

Auburn is loaded with 17 returning starters.  The Tigers are off to a great start with a 73-3 beat down of Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite.  QB Payton Thorne threw 4 touchdown passes and should be much more comfortable in his 2nd season in this system.

California just can't seem to get over the hump under Justin Wilcox and it's surprising he enters his 8th season.  The Golden Bears have finished with a losing record in four consecutive seasons coming in.  They are going to be very overmatched in the talent department against a dynamite recruiter in Freeze and a team from the SEC.

California was very unimpressive in a 31-13 win as a 20.5-point home favorite against UC-Davis in the opener.  In fact, UC-Davis actually outgained California 304 to 281 in what was a very misleading final.  They had 3 turnovers compared to one for California as well.  The Golden Bears also scored on a kickoff return TD.  Cal averaged just 4.3 yards per play against UC-Davis, and that's a bad sign going up against this stout Auburn defense on the road this week.  The Tigers win and cover with room to spare in this one.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Louisville -27

Jeff Brohm is one of my favorite head coaches to back in all of college football.  He wins everywhere he goes.  He dominated at Western Kentucky.  He took Purdue to the Big Ten Championship Game in his final season in 2022.  And now he led Louisville to a 10-4 season and a trip to the ACC Championship Game in his first season in 2023.

Brohm welcomes back 15 starters from that 10-win team.  He brought in former Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough at QB.  He added a pair of stud WR's in Caullin Lacy from South Alabama (1,316 yards LY) and Ja'Corey Brooks from Alabama.  He nabbed three more transfers on the offensive line and has 172 career starts returning up front.

The defense allowed just 21.3 points per game and 317 yards per game last season.  That's the great thing about Brohm is that he's an offensive guy, but his teams always exceed expectations defensively as he doesn't ignore it.  Seven starters return on defense including five of their top seven tacklers.  They add in Cal transfer DE Myles Jernigan, Harvard transfer DT Thor Griffith and UCF transfer CB Corey Thornton.

Louisville opened with a dominant 62-0 win over Austin Peay as a 39.5-point favorite.  They led 59-0 after three quarters before calling off the dogs.  Shough threw 4 touchdown passes, and the defense held them to just 106 total yards in the win.

Jacksonville State delivered a surprising 9-4 campaign in Rich Rodriquez's first season as a FBS member.  But they played one of the softest schedules in the country and took advantage.  Now they have just 9 returning starters losing their QB, their top 3 RB's and their top 2 WR's.  The defense lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from a year ago.  They are without WR Brannon Spector and RB Ron Wiggins due to injury, both of which were expected to be starters this season.

It was a very concerning 55-27 loss as a 3.5-point favorite against Coastal Carolina that has me on Louisville this week.  Jacksonville State allowed 552 total yards including 294 rushing to what was supposed to be a mediocre Coastal Carolina team.  They managed just 357 yards and 123 rushing themselves, and they are knowing as a running team under Rodriquez.  

Louisville is going to be able to name its number against this Jacksonville State defense and continue piling up the points for four quarters.  The Cardinals have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this game with nothing to look ahead to.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +4

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive seasons.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.

Florida Atlantic is a team I'm not very high on this year.  Tom Herman went 4-8 in his first season with the Owls last year and brings back just 12 starters this season.  The offense is a mess, and QB Cam Fancher is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  It's amazing Herman couldn't recruit someone better than Fancher, who has a 21-to-17 TD/INT ratio and almost zero mobility in 3 years at Marshall before coming here.

FAU is getting too much respect for covering in a 16-10 loss at Michigan State as 12-point underdogs in their opener.  But the Spartans are a rebuilding team with a new head coach after last year's 4-8 disaster.  The Spartans led 16-3 at halftime but didn't score after intermission and have a lot of work to do offensively more than anything.

The Owls managed just 248 total yards against the Spartans.  Fancher was his usual terrible self, completing just 12-of-25 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown with 2 interceptions.  He rushed for 67 yards on 25 carries, an average of 2.7 yards per carry.  It's amazing how much the Owls are relying on this guy for all of their offense.

Now I think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Owls after getting to face a team from the Big Ten and just coming up short.  It's a hangover spot for sure as they won't be nearly as motivated to face Army.  And they won't be looking forward to practicing all week against the triple-option.  Herman has almost no experience facing the triple-option, and the same goes for FAU.  They won't be prepared.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on on Bowling Green +35

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Now the Falcons get the opportunity to face another Big Ten opponent in Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are certainly one of the better teams in the country this season, but the Falcons will be the team that is more excited for this game.  Penn State is in a letdown spot off their 34-12 win at West Virginia which proved a lot of naysayers wrong.  They won't be nearly as excited to try and put Bowling Green away by five-plus touchdowns, which is what it would take for them to cover.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season and will be tougher to tame than Penn State bargained for, especially running behind an offensive line that returns eight of their top 10 from last year.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  The Falcons won't be intimidated by Penn State.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* BYU/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

The BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs should take part in a shootout Friday night at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX.  The forecast is perfect with temps in the 90's and light winds at game time as both defenses will be worn out in the second half with these hot temps.

SMU is an offensive juggernaut this season and has been for the last five years.  The Mustangs have averaged at least 37.2 points per game for five consecutive seasons.  They put up 38.7 points per game and 454 yards per game last season and brought back eight starters from that team.

QB Prestone Stone is back after completing 60% of his passes for 3,197 yards with a 28-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  Each of his top six receivers are back as are each of the top three running backs.  The Mustangs led 42-7 at halftime against Houston Christian last time out before calling off the dogs in a 59-7 win.  

With this spread sitting at -11 right now, this game is expected to be competitive so SMU will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.  The Mustangs run one of the fastest tempos in all of college football ranking 4th in seconds per play (20.6) currently.

BYU should be improved offensively in a big way this season.  The Cougars return eight starters on offense.  Kedon Slovis was a major disappointment at QB last year, and backup Jake Retzlaff is ready to take the reigns.  Retzlaff threw for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois in the opener as a 16.5-point favorite.

Six of the top seven receivers return including Chase Roberts, who had 42 receptions for 573 yards and 5 TD last season.  He had 7 receptions for 108 yards in the opener.  Leading rusher LJ Martin returns after rushing for 518 yards and 4 TD on 4.8 per carry last year.  Martin had 67 rushing yards on 13 carries and a score in the opener.  This is a veteran offensive line as well.

BYU had its worst season in years defensively after joining the Big 12 last season.  The Cougars allowed 29.8 points per game and 418 yards per game.  They only return six starters on defense and lose their top two tacklers.  SMU should be able to name its number on this BYU defense, which allowed 31 or more points eight times last year against mostly Big 12 competition.  The Cougars will have to try and play catch up which will only benefit this OVER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* BC/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College +20.5

Note: I released BC +20.5 last Saturday. Still a 20* down to +14.5 but will be graded at +20.5.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei is on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like Thomas Castellanos in their 2nd game of the season.

I was on Georgia Tech +10.5 over Florida State in Dublin, Ireland.  The Yellow Jackets won outright.  I'm fading Florida State for many of the same reasons, plus a few others.  The trip back from Dublin will mean the Seminoles have spent a few days getting acclimated to the time zone change.  No question they will try to respond off that upset defeat, but they aren't good enough to beat Boston College by three touchdowns or more.

Georgia Tech manhandled Florida State at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  There was nothing fluky about their upset win, and if anything they shouldn't have even needed a last-second field goal to beat the Seminoles.  Florida State's defense has struggled with dual-threat QB's like Haynes King.

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.  He will have another big game here to keep the revenge-minded Eagles in it for four quarters.  

Rested teams in Week 1 against teams that played in Week 0 have the advantage with film on their opponent who they have been preparing for all offseason.  Teams that played in Week 0 were game planning for a different opponent.  That is evident by the fact that the rested teams in Week 1 playing their first game of the season are 60-34 ATS since 2005 against teams with a game under their belt like Florida State.  Bet Boston College Monday.

20* LSU/USC ABC No-Brainer on USC +4.5

The USC Trojans are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  Lincoln Riley has always been able to coach up an offense with several Heisman Trophy winners coming from his offenses at quarterback.  But he has neglected defense up to this point, until now.

Riley made one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA.  His defense thrived last year and actually held USC to a season-low in points.  Not to mention, Riley was able to bring in two-time FCS national championship winning head coach Matt Entz from North Dakota State to be the linebackers coach and help out with the defense.

With nine starters back on defense and a ton of talent, I trust Lynn and Entz to get the most out of this unit.  This could be the best defense Riley has ever had.  And I trust his offense enough that I'm not worried about them returning just five starters on offense.  QB Miller Moss threw 6 touchdown passes against Louisville in the bowl game and is ready to be the next Heisman Trophy candidate.  Riley believes this is his most talented offensive line in his three years here as well.

Speaking of Heisman Trophy winners, LSU had to part ways with Jayden Daniels, who threw for 3,812 yards with a 40-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 TD last year.  He is simply irreplaceable, and I"m not a big fan of his replacement in Garrett Nussmeier, who has completed less than 60% of his passes in his three years here.  The Tigers lose two NFL receivers in Malik Nabers (89 receptions, 1,569 yards, 14 TD) and Brian Thomas (68, 1,177, 17 TD) to the draft.

LSU allowed 28.0 points per game and 417 yards per game last season.  Only six starters are back on defense, and this unit is a big question mark again heading into 2024.  Brian Kelly brought in defensive coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri, but that's not nearly as big of an upgrade as USC.  The Tigers also lost their offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame.

This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It's a short drive for USC fans and they will have the home-field advantage.  I think they are the better team and should not be underdogs in this opener as well.  Lincoln Riley is 38-4 SU in the first six games of the season, including a perfect 12-0 at USC.  Bet USC Sunday.

20* Notre Dame/Texas A&M ABC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

Jimbo Fisher recruited some of the best talent in the country to College Station but he just didn't know how to get the most out of it.  In steps Mike Elko, who is knowing for getting the most out of his talent on hand.  He showed that at Duke doing a remarkable job there the last two years.  And he is familiar with Texas A&M considering he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018 to 2021.

Elko inherits all that talent that Fisher left behind with 18 returning starters.  He believes this is the most talented defense he has ever coached which is saying a lot.  The offense is also loaded and QB Conner Weigman has been great when healthy.  He completed 69% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for a pair of touchdowns.

Notre Dame has gotten a lot of hype this offseason as a playoff contender due to a pretty easy schedule by their standards.  But things have not gone according to plan in the offseason.  The Fighting Irish will be starting three freshmen and two starters along the offensive line after Joe Alt was taken 5th in the NFL Draft.  They lost his replacement in Charles Jagusah to a torn pec in early August.

Notre Dame has the talent defensively to match that of Texas A&M, but the key advantage the Aggies have with their uber-talented defensive line up against this young Notre Dame offensive line will be the difference in this game.  Also, Elko will have the advantage knowing ND QB Riley Leonard's strengths and weaknesses after coaching him at Duke and will scheme it up to stop him.

Notre Dame's last win as a road underdog of +3 or higher came all the way back in 2012.  The Fighting Irish have come up short time and time again in these big road games.  College Station is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this will be a rowdy crowd for a Saturday night game with fans excited about the new regime led by Elko and company.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Nebraska -27

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

UTEP is going to be one of the worst teams in the country this season.  The Miners are rebuilding under first-year head coach Scotty Walden, who comes over from Austin Peay.  He brought with him 10 players from Austin Peay, and this is going to be a wide awakening for these players from playing FCS talent to FBS talent.

Only nine starters are back from last year's team that finished 3-9.  QB Cade McConnell is back to lead the offense after completing just 53.5% of his passes with a 6-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year.  They lose their top three receivers including Kelly Akharaiyi, who had 48 receptions for 1,033 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Each of their top three rushers are gone.  All five starters are gone on the offensive line.  Each of the top three tacklers on defense departed, including LB Tyrice Knight (140 tackles, 15.5 for loss).

Nebraska fans finally have something to look forward to with Rhule, QB Raiola and these 17 returning starters this year.  These players want to make a statement in Week 1 and show that they are for real this season and not just hype.  They will keep pouring on the points, thus I'm willing to lay the -27.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +32.5

Jay Norvell is entering Year 3 at Colorado State.  Year 3 is when coaches usually make their biggest impact because they have most of their players in place.  Norvell did a tremendous job turning around Nevada and leading them to four bowl games.  He will do the same at Colorado State.

Norvell now has most of his players in place and 14 returning starters that are accustomed to his systems.  The offense is loaded with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and WR Tory Horton playing behind what will be a drastically improved offensive line from Year 1.  Fowler-Nicolosi completed 62.1% of his passes for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns last year.  Horton had 96 receptions for 1,136 yards and 8 TD last year and is one of the best receivers in the country.

This Colorado State defense figures to improve a lot as well with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 29.6 points per game last year.  They they led by first-team All-MWC SS Jack Howell (114 tackles last year) and 2nd-team All-MWC LB Chase Wilson (107 tackles last year).  Colorado State took Colorado to double-OT on the road last year, and they also upset Boise State at home.

The Texas Longhorns made the four-team playoff last year and expectations are very high for them.  With those expectations come inflated lines, and I think that is the case here in Week 1.  That's especially the case with the Longhorns having a huge game on deck against Michigan next week, and they could easily be looking ahead to that game.  At the very least they will be looking to get their starters out in the 2H to keep them healthy for it.

Texas will be without its top two RB's in Baxter and Clark for this one after losing leading rusher Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 10 TD) from last year.  The Longhorns also lose their top four receivers from a year ago.  I don't expect Quinn Ewers to be in sync with all his new playmakers to start the season.  I think this Rams defense can hold the Longhorns in check enough to stay within the number as a result.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -2.5

Most are quick to dismiss Northwestern's 8-5 season last year.  Pat Fitzgerald was let go shortly before the season and defensive coordinator David Braun took over.  They were coming off a 1-11 season to boot and had just 11 starters back last year.

Players bought into Braun and delivered their first 8-win season since 2018.  They upset Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois and Utah.  They continue to get no respect as 2.5-point home favorites over Miami Ohio from the MAC in the opener.

This despite the fact that Northwestern returns 15 starters from that 8-5 team.  They return eight starters on defense from a unit that allowed 22.5 points per game, and they should be just as good if not better defensively this season.

The offense returns seven starters and didn't get the best play from starting QB Ben Bryant, so losing him isn't that big of a loss.  They have plenty of capable replacements, including Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, who had a 21-11 TD/INT ratio and 902 rushing yards (5.2/carry) in his three seasons as a Commodore.

Miami Ohio is the team getting credit for winning the MAC last year with a school-record 11 wins.  This despite outgaining MAC opponents by just 10 yards per game with an 8-1 record. They were simply fortunate in close games, and a big reason why was Groza Award winner Graham Nicholson.  But their star kicker left for Alabama in the transfer portal, and not having him is a bigger loss than is being factored in to this team's projections.

Miami returns just 12 starters overall.  They lose their leading rusher and leading receiver, and they lose six of their top 10 tacklers on defense.  They lost 38-3 to the Miami Hurricanes in their opener last year, and that was just a 7-6 Miami team.  This is a big step up in class for the Redhawks having to face a team from the Big Ten in their opener again.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Clemson/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2024.  The Tigers went 9-4 last season and failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2010, which was Dabo Swinney's 2nd year here.

In Clemson's four losses last year, they held a 94-60 edge in first downs over their opponents and easily could have won all four.  They haven't been this big of an underdog for a very long time, which just goes to show how underrated they are heading into the season.

Swinney has shunned the transfer portal and recruited within, therefore the team chemistry should be as good as any team in the country.  The Tigers have 14 starters back including nine on offense, and this should be one of the most improved offenses in the country.  Former top recruit Cade Klubnik came into his own at the end of last season and is primed for a monster junior season.  He returns his top receiver, top RB and four starters along the offensive line.

Clemson always has an elite defense and that won't change this season.  They allowed 21.1 points per game and 288 yards per game last season.  They have five starters back, but the six new starters all saw significant time last year, and there won't be a drop off in production.  Seven of the 11 starters were all ranked at the Top 15 at their position coming out of high school.

Georgia is the new king of college football.  But with the hype comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  That was evident last year when the Bulldogs went 13-1 SU but just 5-8-1 ATS.  You are consistently paying a premium to back the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Georgia has three players that are facing suspension for the opener including their top two running backs.  Leading returning tackler LB Smael Mondon is also facing a possible suspension.  They lost three of their top four receivers and their top two rushers from last year already.  If Mondon doesn't go, they will be without five of their top seven tacklers from last year as well.

The talent discrepancy here isn't big enough to warrant Georgia being favored by two touchdowns on a neutral field over a fellow national title contender in Clemson.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -42

For starters, Week 1 favorites of -37 or more who are playing another FBS team are 16-0-1 ATS over the last handful of seasons.  These big spreads scare off bettors, and I'm usually taking the points with spreads this high, but not in this game.

Oklahoma makes the move to the SEC and is loaded this season.  The Sooners want to make a statement in their first game as a member of the SEC to prove they belong.  They will make that statement against arguably the worst team in all of college football in Temple.

The Sooners return 15 starters this season.  They are loaded defensively eight starters and nine of their top 10 tacklers back from a unit that allowed just 23.5 points per game this season.  It took a few years for head coach Brent Venables, the legendary DC at Clemson, to get his players in place.  But now this is going to be one of the top defenses in the country led by amazing LB's and DB's.  Temple may not score a single points.

Dillon Gabriel has taken the bag at Oregon and is the Heisman Trophy favorite.  However, Oklahoma had star QB Jackson Arnold waiting in the wings.  He flashed his talents in the bowl game and this team believes in him.  Seven starters return on offense and while they will have a hard time matching last year's 41.7 points per game and 507 yards per game, this will still be one of the top offenses in the country.  They return four of their top five receivers and their leading rusher, plus add in WR Deion Burks from Purdue.

Oklahoma beat Arkansas State 73-0 to open last season, and that was a quality Red Wolves team from the Sun Belt.  The Sooners beat Tulsa 66-17 on the road last year in their 3rd game of the season, and the Golden Hurricane are a fellow AAC team that was much better than Temple is going to be this year.

Temple went 3-9 last season with wins over Akron, Norfolk State and Navy.  They lost by 29 to Rutgers and by 34 to Miami in the non-conference.  After having 15 starters back last season, 3rd-year head coach Stan Drayton has just 10 starters back this season and will be even worse.

The big loss is QB EJ Warner, who was the only player keeping this team alive last year.  He threw for 3,076 yards with a 23-to-12 TD/INT ratio and has transferred to Rice to take over the starting job there.  They lose their top two receivers, their leading rushers and three starters along the offensive line including a 1st-team All-AAC selection.

Temple allowed 35.7 points per game and 442 yards per game last season.  The Owls lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from last year and will be even worse on defense.  Oklahoma can name its number on this defense, and I expect the Sooners to top 50 points in this one which is all it's going to take to cover -42.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* FSU/Georgia Tech CFB Season Opener on Georgia Tech +10.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a big sleeper in the ACC this season.  They went 7-6 last season despite being picked to finish near the bottom of the conference.  They return 13 starters from that team, including one of the most underrated offenses in the country.

QB Haynes King completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,842 yards with a 27-to-16 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 737 yards and 10 scores.  He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody is talking about.  He led the Yellow Jackets to a 30-17 win over UCF in the bowl game.  More impressive yet, GT nearly upset Georgia in a 31-23 loss as 24-point dogs in the regular season finale.

King is among eight returning starters on offense.  Each of his top two receivers are back as is leading rusher Jamal Haynes, who rushed for 1,059 yards while averaging 6.1 per carry last year.  Four starters return along the offensive line including a pair of All-ACC performers in C Weston Franklin and RT Jordan Williams.

The defense is the concern after allowing 29.5 points per game and bringing back just five starters.  But three of the top four tacklers return, the defensive line looks solid, and they are projected to have nine junior and senior starters.  I think this unit will be better than expected.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei will be playing on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like King in their first game of the season.  

The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Seminoles, and six of the last seven meetings were decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Washington/Michigan CFP Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  The month break allowed these players to get healthy as well as several other players healthy on defense.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

It paid off in a 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl.  That final score doesn't really show how dominant the Huskies really were over the Longhorns.  They just managed to make it interesting late.  The Huskies racked up 532 total yards in the win.  Washington's offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award for the nation's top offensive line, was the key to victory.  They held a previously dominant Texas defensive line in check and gave Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to find his 3 NFL receivers and others.  Penix Jr. finished 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  He is the best QB in the country and now he is showing it on the national stage.  And I trust this Washington offensive line to keep him clean against Michigan's fearsome front.

I know RB Dillon Johnson got hurt at the end of that game against Texas and will try to play through the pain, which isn't ideal.  However, Washington knows its best game plan is to throw the ball as many times as possible against this Michigan defense.  Michigan's defense is similar to Texas in that they are tough to run on, but they haven't been tested through the air much at all this season thanks to a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The best QB's they faced were McCord of Ohio State, Tagovailoa of Maryland, Allar of Penn State and Milroe of Alabama.  

None of those four QB's can sling it like Penix Jr. can with precision accuracy.  And Michigan hasn't faced a trio of receivers like they will be up against in this one.  I like the fact that Michigan only gets one week to prepare for Washington's high-octane offense.  That's not enough time.  I trust Kalen DeBoer over Jim Harbaugh to make the right adjustments in this short amount of time.

Washington's defense is the most underrated unit of the entire college football playoff.  They are a bend but don't break bunch.  They do give up yards, but they are one of the best red zone defenses in the country.  They will stack the box to stop the run and try and make JJ McCarthy try and beat them through the air.  Washington's cornerbacks are certainly a strength with their tremendous ball skills, and McCarthy won't be able to beat them often.

Michigan was lucky to beat Alabama needing a late TD to force OT and then winning in OT.  Well, Texas beat Alabama by 10 on the road, and Washington just dominated Texas.  Also, the Wolverines benefited from playing on a slick grass field in the Rose Bowl to help counter Alabama's speed.  They won't have that same luxury against Washington with this game being played inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Washington's speed on the fast track will be a huge advantage for them.  This is an ACC officiating crew, and they called pass interference at a higher rate than any other officiating crew in the country.  That will certainly benefit Washington's pass-happy attack.

Washington is 21-0 SU in its last 21 games overall including 10-0 vs AP Top 10 teams during this span.  DeBoer is 8-1 ATS as a head coach as an underdog, including 7 outright victories of those nine.  DeBoer is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Bet Washington in the CFP Championship Game Monday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  This month break with their last game on December 1st will do wonders for these three.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

Texas lost star RB Jonathan Brooks late in the season.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 TD while averaging 6.1 per carry.  Backups CJ Baxter (4.6/carry) isn't nearly as explosive.  Texas also lost leading WR Xavier Worthy in the Big 12 Championship Game to injury.  He was seen limping and on crutches after the game.  While he is expected to play, he has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100%.  That's a big blow considering Worthy has 73 receptions for 969 yards and 5 TD this season.

Texas isn't going to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Washington.  And I like the matchup for this Washington offense up against this Texas defense.  The strength of the Longhorns is their run D, but you can throw on them.  That fits perfectly for what head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to do, which is throw it all over the yard.  The Huskies average 344 passing yards per game and 9.2 per attempt.  Texas allowed 305 passing yards to Baylor, 378 to Houston, 327 to Kansas State, 302 to TCU and 323 to Iowa State in Big 12 play.

Texas does have the better defense overall, but Washington's defense is better than it gets credit for.  The Huskies do allow you to move the ball between the 20's, but they were one of the best red zone D's in the country, which is why they only allow 23.6 points per game.  I think they can more than handle their own defensively, and this will be a step up in class for Texas' offense after facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Big 12.

Washington beat Texas 27-20 last year in the bowl game.  There was nothing fluky about is as the Huskies racked up 445 total yards on the Longhorns.  It will be more of the same this year, except the difference is the Huskies are better than they were a year ago in their bowl game.  They will be able to play with a chip on their shoulder again listed as the underdog.  I fully expect the Huskies to win this game outright, but we will take the points for some insurance.  

Steve Sarkisian is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Texas.  Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  I'll take DeBoer over Sarkisian every time with time to prepare.  Bet Washington in the Sugar Bowl Monday.

15* Alabama/Michigan Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +2

The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl.  Alabama will be the best team that Michigan has faced all season and I don't expect it to go well for them.  It will go similarly to how it did against TCU last year.  Michigan was upset by TCU, and TCU went on to lose by 56 to Georgia.  The SEC is simply king.

We saw that play out Saturday with Ole Miss upsetting Penn State 38-25 and Georgia blasting Florida State 63-3.  Missouri also upset Ohio State 14-3 the day prior.  Alabama beat both Ole Miss and Georgia to get here.

Michigan was able to bully teams in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten was a terrible offensive league this season.  Michigan won't be able to bully Alabama at the line is scrimmage.  Plus, Michigan hasn't faced the kind of athletes on offense that they will have to deal with in this one.  

QB Jalen Milroe is a physical specimen that can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Michigan won't be prepared because they haven't seen anything like him.  He completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,718 yards with a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores on the ground.  I will take Milroe over Michigan's JJ McCarthy all day.  McCarthy hasn't been asked to do much this season because Michigan bullies everyone with their ground game, and he won't be prepared to need to do more in this one.

I like the fact that Alabama is the underdog in this one so Nick Saban can use that as a motivating tool that nobody believes in this team still, and they will be out to prove something.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play this season.  Saban is 8-1 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents as the coach of Alabama.  Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Alabama in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee Citrus Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 35

The Big Ten West was dreadful this season.  Iowa managed to win it with one of the worst offenses in college football history.  However, a lot of that had to do with them having to play some great defenses and very poor offenses.  Iowa isn't used to playing the type of team they will be up against in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee runs an up-tempo offense that is conducive to a lot of points being scored by both teams.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in seconds per play on offense.  They are going to force Iowa into more of a track meet than they're used to, especially if the Volunteers jump out ahead like they are supposed to as the favorite.

11 of Tennessee's 12 games have seen 43 or more combined points.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Starting QB Joe Milton has opted out of this bowl game, but that's the only real significant loss on offense for the Volunteers.  Many Tennessee fans wanted Nico Iamaleava to start over Milton this season anyway, and now he will get his shot in this bowl game.  Iowa won't know what to do to prepare for with him without game film on him.  Iamaleava is the top-ranked QB recruit in program history, and Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halzle cannot wait to unleash him.

The biggest losses for the Volunteers as far as opt-outs are concerned are on defense.  Starting DE Tyler Baron, starting S Wesley Walker, starting CB Doneiko Slaughter, and starting slot CB Tamarion McDonald have all hit the transfer portal.  They have six players in the secondary that have hit the portal.  They will be without at least four starters and possibly more on defense.  Iowa will be able to move the football much easier than normal against this defense, which will be a big step down in class for them compared to what they are used to facing in the Big Ten.

Iowa losing CB/PR Cooper DeJean to injury late in the season is a big blow.  He was a unanimous 1st-team All-American.  Without having his leadership out there it's going to be much tougher sledding for this Iowa defense up against arguably the most high-powered offense they have seen all season.  Iowa's schedule of opposing offenses this season is an absolute joke playing in the Big Ten West, plus facing Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State in the non-conference.

Iowa's offense tends to bust out in bowl games, too.  The Hawkeyes have scored at least 20 points in 18 consecutive bowl games.  If they get to 20 in this one, it's going OVER the total.  Iowa and their opponents have combined for at least 35 points in 17 of their last 19 bowl games.  That makes for a 17-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Bet the OVER in the Citrus Bowl Monday.

25* College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming ML -165

Legendary head coach Craig Bohl has announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.  These players desperately want to get him a win in his final game, and no team will be more motivated than the Cowboys this bowl season.  I like putting my money on teams that I know will be motivated.

The Cowboys only had one player hit the transfer portal in CB Kolbey Taylor.  RT Caden Barnett won't play in the bowl due to injury, but backup Jack Walsh started for him in the final two games this season.  Bohl has said that everyone else appears to be healthy and playing in this bowl game.

Toledo will be without starting QB Dequan Finn and starting LG Vinny Scuiry.  CB Quinyon Mitchell may decide to opt out as well.  The loss of Finn is massive.  He completes 63.4% of his passes for 2,657 yards with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 563 yards and seven TD, and backup QB Tucker Gleason just doesn't threat opponents with his legs like Finn does.

Just this week, Toledo star RB Penny Boone announced he would be hitting the transfer portal, which means he's likely opting out of this bowl game.  Boone has rushed for 1,400 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.2 per carry.  He and Finn account for basically all of their production on the ground, combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 TD.

Toledo lost as a 6.5-point favorite in the MAC Championship Game to Miami Ohio by a final of 23-14.  The Rockets do not want to be here.  Wyoming plays a very similar style to Miami Ohio.  They don't wow you offensively, but they are elite defensively and make everything difficult for their opponents.  Now they get to go up against a Toledo offense without their starting QB & RB.

Wyoming ended the season by blasting Hawaii 42-9 at home as 13-point favorites and crushing Nevada 42-6 on the road as 10.5-point favorites.  They do want to be here and have earned their way.  They also beat Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State earlier this season while giving Texas all they wanted for three quarters on the road.  They are battle-tested to say the least.  Wyoming played the 73rd-toughest schedule this season while Toledo played the 130th in the weak MAC.

Jason Candle is 0-7 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Toledo.  Bohl is 17-6 ATS following two or more consecutive wins as the coach of Wyoming.  I'm confident the Cowboys are going to get the win for Bohl, but I don't want to lay -3.5 in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.  So I'll lay the extra juice on the Money Line instead.  Bet Wyoming on the Money Line in the Arizona Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Iowa State OVER 57

The Memphis Tigers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-2 OVER in all games this season.  We have seen 61 or more combined points in eight of Memphis' last nine games overall.  This total of 57 is too low for a game involving the Tigers.

Memphis is putting up 39.7 points per game, 453.2 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  QB Seth Hanigan is expected to play and have all of his top playmakers for this contest.  Hanigan is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 TD on 5.9 per carry.  Roc Taylor (61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD) and Dameer Blankumsee (51, 825, 6 TD) are his top two target.  They will only be without RT Makylan Pounders and RG Davion Carter, but backups Mitchell Gildehaus and Terrance McClain have experience taking their place.

Memphis allows 29.0 points per game, 424.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Tigers will be without starting CB Julian Barnett, starting S Cameron Smith and backup BUCK Andres Fox.  Smith is the fourth-leading tackler and a big blow in the secondary for an already suspect Memphis defense.

Iowa State scored 42 points on Kansas State and 45 points on BYU in two of its final three games.  They are going to score at will on this Memphis defense.  The Cyclones will have all of their starters available offensively.  On defense, they will be without CB TJ Tampa, who is an NFL corner.  They could also be without starting S Malik Verdon, leaving their secondary short-handed against Memphis' pass-happy attack.  The Cyclones allowed 281-plus passing yards in three of their final four games this season.

I expect Iowa State to score 35-plus in this one and Memphis to get to at least 28.  Memphis is 7-0 OVER following a conference game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NC State/K-State Pop-Tarts Bowl ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2.5

The NC State Wolfpack are highly motivated to get their 10th win of the season.  They quietly played some of the best football int he country down the stretch, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games with upset wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC and Virginia Tech.  They also smoked Wake Forest by 20 in what looked to be a clear letdown spot.  Now they are once again underdogs to Kansas State when they should be favored in this game when you factor in all that the Wildcats will be missing.

Kansas State won the Big 12 last year and got a big bowl game as a result against Alabama.  This is actually a letdown for them to be playing n the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  The Wildcats have nine players in the transfer portal including QB Will Howard, so that leaves Avery Johnson as the expected starter at QB.  They also had starting S Kobe Savage and starting CB Will Lee hit the transfer portal, plus starting WR Phillip Brooks and starting TE Ben Sinnott transfer out, which are their two biggest weapons on offense.  DT Uso Deumalo was on crutches in the finale, and LB Jake Clifton was lost for the season after Week 11 after the Wildcats were already without starting MLB Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom.  Offensive coordinator Collin Klein accepted the same job at Texas A&M as well.

NC State should have all hands on deck for this game in terms of starters outside of NT CJ Clark.  That just goes to show you how 'all in' the Wolfpack are to get their 10th win of the season.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team with a all of their best players available against the team that lacks motivation with a ton of key opt-outs and transfers down to a backup QB.  Bet NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Miami Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers ML +100

Rutgers actually qualified for a bowl not due to academics with 6 wins for the first time since 2014.  It's safe to say the Scarlet Knights want to be here, and head coach Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his head coaching career.

Rutgers will have a huge home-field advantage in this one with the short trip to The Bronx for fans to come watch this team play.  It's only an hour drive from campus.  They are a cold weather team used to the elements going up against a warm weather team in Miami that wants nothing to do with having to play in the cold weather and this bowl game up in the Northeast.

While Rutgers only had one key player opt out of this game in CB Max Melton, the losses are large for Miami with transfers and opt-outs.  They will be down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown with starting QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin and backup QB Emory Williams injured.  The Hurricanes will also be without fellow starters in WR Colbie Young, LB Corey Flagg, EDGE Jahfari Harvey, CB Daryl Porter Jr., S Kamren Kinches, S Jamal Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, C Matt Lee and LG Javion Cohen.  The Hurricanes are likely to be without four starters on offense and five or six on defense.

Schiano is 38-20 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Mario Cristobal is 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Miami.  We are getting the better head coach and the team that wants to be here more at a PK, which is an absolute steal.  Bet Rutgers on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl BAILOUT on Oklahoma State ML -130

The Texas A&M Aggies have been absolutely gutted in the transfer portal and in the coaching staff.  Jimbo Fisher was fired and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino left for the same job at Arkansas.  Elijah Robinson will serve as the interim for the bowl game, but he has his forced on Syracuse where he will be their defensive coordinator.  The rest of the staff is in flux as well.

Third-string QB Jaylen Henderson will get the start with QB Max Johnson off to North Carolina.  Other starters missing are WR Evan Steward, RT Chase Bisontis, EDGE Fadil Diggs, S Bryce Anderson, DL Walter Nolen, CB Tyreek Chappell, CB Deuce Harmon, WR Ainias Smith, LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT McKinnley Jackson and RG Layden Robinson.  That's 12 starters they are expected to be without, plus several other backups in the transfer portal and possibly starting C Bryce Foster and WR Moose Muhammad.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is one of the best bowl head coaches in the country.  His 11 bowl wins rank him among the Top 10 all-time in college football.  Oklahoma State clearly wants to be here as the only potential starter missing would be LB Collin Oliver, but I'm guessing he plays.  Star RB Ollie Gordon I (1,614 yards, 20 TD, 6.3/carry) is going to play, which is all you need to know about how much the Cowboys want to be here.

I'll gladly side with the more motivated team in the Cowboys up against the team that wants nothing to do with this bowl game in the Aggies.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* UNC/West Virginia Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on West Virginia -6.5

The UNC Tar Heels are going to be without a ton of starters for this game, so this is more of a fade of them than anything.  They will be without five players who will be entering the NFL Draft in QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, WR Tez Walker and DL Myles Murphy.  They are missing five other starters due to injury in TE John Copenhaver, WR Byson Nesbit, WR Kobe Paysour, CB Alijah Huzzie and S Will Hardy.  Seven other backups hit the transfer portal.

West Virginia will have its full compliment of starters for this one with the exception of C Zach Frazier, who is one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft.  He is only missing this game due to surgery.  Head coach Neal Brown and his players will be 'all in' to try and get a win here when you look at all the players expected to play.

West Virginia is a run-heavy team that averages 236 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  They will be up against a UNC defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  And now this defense won't have several key players at LB, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  But the losses are bigger for UNC's offense, which will be without its QB and all of its top weapons.

The bottom line is WVU cares about this bowl game while UNC does not, and the matchup favors them as well as they will be winning that battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Getting the Mountaineers at anything less than a TD favorite here is a discount.  Bet West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl Wednesday.

20* Utah/Northwestern Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Northwestern +7

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that improved by 6-plus wins (or by 50%-plus) from the prior regular season are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 bowl games as underdogs after going 4-1 ATS last season.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Northwestern.

The Northwestern Wildcats were one of the best stories in all of college football this season.  Interim head coach David Braun had to take over for Pat Fitzgerald just before the season.  After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats went 4-1 SU in their final five games with their only loss coming 10-7 to Big Ten West champion Iowa.  The Wildcats upset Wisconsin as 12-point road dogs, upset Maryland as 14.5-point home dogs and upset Illinois as 6.5-point road dogs.  They went 7-0 ATS in their final seven games.  The Wildcats clearly want to be here.

The Utah Utes had Pac-12 title expectations coming into the year.  But they never got their starting QB back from injury, and their offense struggled all season to keep up with what was a very good Utah defense.  The Utes limped to the finish line, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their final three games.  They lost by 24 at Arizona and then only beat Colorado by 6 as 21-point home favorites despite the Buffaloes playing without star QB Shedeur Sanders.  Utah does not want to be here after playing in the Rose Bowl the last two seasons.

The Utes had several players hit the transfer portal, plus they lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.  Leading WR Devaughn Vele (43 receptions, 593 yards, 3 TD) opted out as well.  Meanwhile, Northwestern only had one starter hit the transfer portal in LG Josh Priebe.  They will have all hands on deck for this one, further proof that they want to be here and finish the season the on a 4-game winning streak with yet another upset victory.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Georgia State/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Utah State ML +110

Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  This trend goes to show that teams that win their final regular season game to get bowl eligible are clearly motivated to be there and thus go out and perform well.  It think that will be the case for Utah State here.

In fact, Utah State went 3-1 SU in its final four games with its only loss coming to Boise State, which was the Mountain West champion.  The Aggies boast some impressive numbers for a team that is just 6-6 on the season.  They average 446.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play while allowing 417.6 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 29 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

Georgia State also finished 6-6 but clearly cannot be too happy to be here.  The Panthers opened 6-1 this season and looked to be a real contender to win the Sun Belt.  Instead, they have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since.  They lost by 17 to Georgia Southern, by 28 to James Madison, by 28 to Appalachian State and by 42 to LSU.  They weren't even competitive down the stretch, and head coach Shawn Elliott may have lost this team.  The Panthers are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play on the season.

Several of Georgia State's best players hit the transfer portal.  That includes leading rusher Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TD) and leading receiver Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TD).  Carroll is headed to Missouri while Lewis is headed to Auburn, so clearly those two programs thought both of these players were good enough to play in the SEC.  Starting RT Montavious Cunningham is headed to Virginia Tech and starting CB Bryquice Brown is headed to Boston College.  You could argue that Georgia State will be without its four best players now.

Utah State doesn't have any important players in the transfer portal other than S Devin Dye.  They should have basically all hands on deck here.  I also like the angle that QB Levi Williams will be playing in his final collegiate game before joining the military.  Williams actually played in this same bowl game last year leading Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State.  He rushed for 200 yards and 4 TD while also throwing for another score in the win.  

Williams was named MWC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against New Mexico in the regular season finale.  Hew went 16-of-27 passing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 169 yards and three scores to show off his dual-threat ability.  There is really no drop off from their other two QB's to Williams as the Aggies have arguably the best depth of any team in the country at QB.

This will also be basically a home game for the Aggies being played in Boise, Idaho, a stadium they are very familiar with getting to play Boise State every year.  It's only a 4 hour drive for their fans and they will have a big home-field advantage as a result.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Arkansas State/Northern Illinois Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State PK

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Arkansas State went 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season despite not being more than a 1-point favorite in any of the five games.  They crushed Texas State 77-31 to get bowl eligible.  They also took South Alabama to the wire in a 7-point road loss as a 15-point underdog.  Butch Jones now has the Red Wolves going to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 in his third season on the job.  This is a program on the rise.

The Red Wolves have all starters expected to play in this game other than LB Javante Mackey.  It's safe to say they are happy to be here and looking forward to this opportunity.  I expect fans to make the trip from Jonesboro to Montgomery, AL for this Camellia Bowl and support this team.

Northern Illinois went 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The three wins weren't impressive at all as all three came against three of the worst teams in all of college football in Eastern Michigan (130th), Western Michigan (127th) and Kent State (188th).  Those rankings are from Jeff Sagarin and combine FBS and FCS teams.  While Northern Illinois faced the 128th-ranked schedule in the country, Arkansas State faced the 113th.

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt this season with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and five scores on the ground.  I like this Arkansas State offense over Northern Illinois, which likely only has one proven healthy receiver for this game.  It's a lackluster NIU offense that averages just 25.3 points per game despite facing such a soft schedule.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* Syracuse/South Florida Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +3

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for South Florida.

South Florida finished 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14 in their regular season finale.  The Bulls will be going to their first bowl game since 2018, so they are clearly happy to be here.  They didn't have any significant opt-opts and will have basically all hands on deck for this one.

Syracuse limped to the finish going 2-6 in its final six games with the two wins coming against non-bowl teams in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and the Orange had a few players hit the transfer portla.  I think they have very questionable motivation heading into this one as a result and are a vulnerable favorite.

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Bulls put up 30.8 points per game and 455.3 yards per game this season and will have a big advantage on offnese in this matchup.  They rush for 185 yards per game and throw for 271 yards per game.  Syracuse is actually getting outgained by 22.6 yards per game on the season.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* WKU/Old Dominion Famous Toastery Bowl No-Brainer on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion fought hard to make a bowl game and is happy to be here.  The Monarchs needed to win their final two games of the season just to get bowl eligible and did so in dramatic fashion.  They upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point road dogs and then pulled off the 25-24 comeback win over Georgia State in the final seconds at home in the regular season finale.

Now Old Dominion fits into several bowl systems that have been very profitable.  Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky is used to competing for conference championships but they were denied by Liberty and New Mexico State this season.  This despite Conference USA being one of the worst conferences in the country.  The Hilltoppers just didn't have it, especially defensively where they allowed 28.2 points per game and 427 yards per game this season.  Their offense was also down a couple notches from the past fewer years.

Now this WKU offense is going to be down a couple more notches.  They had three starting offensive linemen hit the transfer portal.  Reports have surfaced that starting QB Austin Reed could miss the bowl, and backup QB Caden Veltkamp is also in the transfer portal, meaning they could be down to a third-string QB.  NFL prospect WR Malachi Corley is also worth watch.  I like Old Dominion whether or not Reed and Corley play, and this line will move even more of they don't.

The Hilltoppers' already suspect defense will be without starting CB Upton Stout, starting LB Desmyn Baker, starting S Talique Allen and CB TJ Stringer.  So they will be without three starters in the secondary, making life easy on Old Dominion their passing game.  The Monarchs will only be missing three starters in WR Javon Harvey, S Terry Jones and LB Jason Henderson.  This will be just their 2nd bowl game since 2017, so they are clearly happy to be here with so few opt-outs.

The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these C-USA teams did and are more battle-tested as a result.  The Monarchs played the 81st-toughest schedule while the Hilltoppers played the 123rd.

Western Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with its only cover coming against one of the worst teams in all of college football in Florida International by 13 as 11.5-point favorites.  The Hilltoppers are 1-7 ATS after committing one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hilltoppers just don't stand much of a chance without three starting offensive linemen and four starters on defense and possibly more.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* Georgia Southern/Ohio 2023 Bowl Opener on Georgia Southern -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Southern Eagles after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games to close out the season.  They played a brutal schedule down the stretch with three of their final four games on the road.  They had little to play for after clinching bowl eligibility but also being eliminated from conference title contention simultaneously.

Now I think we get a fully focused effort from the Eagles in this bowl game.  They lost to Buffalo by 2 in their bowl game last season to fall to 6-7 and a losing record.  They don't want that to be their fate again.  The Eagles will have all hands on deck for this game with the exception of possibly RB Jalen White, who is questionable with injury.  They didn't have any opt-outs, which is unheard of in today's college football.

The transfer portal really hit Ohio hard.  The Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Roarke (15 total TD), WR Miles Cross (47 receptions, 617 yards, 5 TD), RB Sieh Bangura (811 yards, 7 TD) and backup RB O'Shaan Allison (452 yards, 3 TD) on offense.  They also lose their best player on defense in LB Keye Thompson (94 tackles).  Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones earlier this season.  Backup QB CJ Harris led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, but he's out for the year, so they will be down to third-stringer Parker Navarro.  They are going to be without their top two QB's, their top two RB's and their top two WR's.  They won't be able to take advantage of what has been a suspect Georgia Southern defense.

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Ohio is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  It's only a four hour drive from Statesboro, Georgia to Conway, SC so the Eagles should have the majority of the fans at this game.  I can't see Ohio fans turning out to support a team that is losing all of its top playmakers on offense.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49

Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season.  They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville.  I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.

We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week.  That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too.  The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards.  They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.

Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season.  The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.

The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them.  They are going to try and run the football.  Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.

There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total.  When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.

Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game.  That misleading final also has this total inflated this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15

Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship.  They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12.  They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.

This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season.  Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  That letdown was expected.

But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards.  But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead.  Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game.  They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT.  They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.

Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week.  But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch.  In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets.  Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.

Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average.  Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition.  The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those.  So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.

The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.

Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points.  They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings.  As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5

The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii.  They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.

Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty.  They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission.  Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays.  It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective.  Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry.  Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game.  Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl.  New Mexico State is playing on house money.

I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box.  New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch.  They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season.  They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games.  That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game.  It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run.  Bet New Mexico State Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10

As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship.  But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated.  They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.

Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite.  Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite.  Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off.  I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.

The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway.  They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less.  It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss.  I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.

But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week.  They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma.  I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.

Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week.  They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards.  They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.

The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Wildcats got one big play and that was it.  Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State.  In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start.  They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility.  Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.

Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  But all three of those games were at home.  Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season.  Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse.  They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.

South Carolina has played its best football at home.  All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium.  Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida.  I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.

South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season.  Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here.  Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5

The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State.  Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them.  This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.

At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread.  The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late.  In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.

This is the National Championship Game for Washington State.  The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals.  They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.

Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents.  Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season.  They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12.  They know they can play with Washington, too.

The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.  Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game.  They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week.  Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best.  The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games.  They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU.  I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott.  I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.

Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire.  They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs.  Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week.  They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.

Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team.  Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season.  They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages.  Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup.  They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense.  The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5

The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks.  They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs.  They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.

Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals.  They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale.  They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year.  They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one.  They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo.  They could care less about winning this game.  The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.

Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule.  They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th.  Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin.  They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average.  Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5

Texas has all the pressure on them right now.  They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff.  They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now.  They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.

Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12.  They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma.  It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score.  Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade.  Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game.  He is very questionable to play this week.  That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.

Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB.  He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores.  Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF.  They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.

Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road.  There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest.  I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season.  To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.

Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game.  Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5

The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons.  Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic.  I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.

UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB.  He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play.  They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams.  Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.

UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games.  Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents.  So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.

Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas.  That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference.  Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.

Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday.  That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UTSA Friday.

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They need one more win to get bowl eligible.  That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three.  This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate.  They aren't going to pack it in now.

Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate.  They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule.  They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week.  They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would.  They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years.  They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.

After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year.  They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one.  That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.

Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury.  They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy.  He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries.  He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.

Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful.  Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense.  The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages.  Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9

I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College.  What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster.  It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games.  They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games.  They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville.  After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.

Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami.  I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week.  So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes.  That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points.  Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game.  The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5

Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention.  They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now.  We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.

Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy.  Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD.  He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago.  And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week.  Temple was competitive in all three games.

Memphis just has a way of playing in close games.  In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury.  It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.

The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful.  They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games.  They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play.  Those are numbers very similar to Temple.  I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense.  Bet Temple Friday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12.  Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12.  It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare.  This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.

After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston.  That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12.  They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB.  Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.

Iowa State isn't scared of Texas.  The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year.  Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too.  Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.

What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  This defense gives them a chance in any game.  They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country.  He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week.  Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively.  And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.

Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas.  Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now.  They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State.  They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.

Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season.  They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play.  The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.

Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers.  The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse.  They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season.  They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD.  He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.

I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season.  Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23.  We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser.  As you can see, I'm still not over it.  But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation.  They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.

Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5

I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons.  The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.

The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State.  But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.

The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week.  They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards.  That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory.  And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.

In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total.  The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense.  It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.

Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers.  They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more.  But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds.  Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score.  They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.

Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season.  He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary.  DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52

I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for.  Well, here's a good example of that.  Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game.  They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.

Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title.  They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well.  But I prefer the OVER instead.

Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo.  That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech.  The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.

The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games.  They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points.  They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points.  The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.

Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season.  They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well.  This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.

The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders.  This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs.  They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern.  They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB.  So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation.  Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.

Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener.  But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time.  Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it.  Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively.  They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt.  Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.

Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State.  They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons.  A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7

Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen.  They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least.  Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.

Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game.  They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense.  They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.

West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati.  The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game.  We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.

I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home.  But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma.  West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.

Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach.  After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke.  They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week.  They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan.  They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week.

James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself.  And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss.  Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite.  Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa.  But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers.  They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week.  They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.

Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago.  The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss.  The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns.  They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State.  If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.

Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss.  Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16

This game means nothing to UTSA.  Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters.  The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game.  As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.

UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels.  They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior.  Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.

South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight.  They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them.  The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior.  That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.

South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric.  The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat.  The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play.  They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.

Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games.  The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game.  Bet South Florida Friday.