20* Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

FREE Super Bowl Props Below: I have my favorite Super Bowl Props listed below the analysis.  I will likely be adding more leading up to the Super Bowl, so be sure to check back on the day of the big game to make sure you have all of my prop picks.

The Seattle Seahawks are the best team in the NFL and deserve to be in the Super Bowl.  They won the toughest division in football in the NFC West and the toughest conference.  They took advantage of the No. 1 seed and returned from their bye week to crush the 49ers 41-6 before getting by the 2nd-best team in football in the Los Angeles Rams, 31-27.

What makes the Seahawks the best team in the NFL is they have no weaknesses.  They rank 3rd in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 8th in total offense at 350 yards per game and 7th at 6.0 yards per play.  Seattle ranks 1st in scoring defense at 17.1 points per game, 6th in total defense at 293.4 yards per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  They ranked 1st in the NFL with a +191 scoring differential in the regular season and have a +230 differential including the playoffs.  All while playing the 9th-toughest schedule in the NFL.

The Patriots are complete frauds.  They have gotten here thanks to playing the easiest schedule (32nd) in the league and arguably the easiest schedule of any team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl.  Give Mike Vrabel credit for getting them this far with smoke and mirrors, but they will get exposed here as they finally have to face a complete team.

Not only did the Patriots make the playoffs while facing the easiest regular season schedule, they have caught a ton more breaks in these playoffs with all three opponents hampered offensively.  They beat the Chargers who had the worst offensive line in the NFL and were missing RB Omarion Hampton.  They beat the Texans who had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and were missing WR Nico Collins.  Both Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud completely imploded.  And in the AFC Championship Game, they got to face a backup QB in Jarrett Stidham who was making his first NFL start in three years.

The Patriots had no business beating the Broncos.  Stidham fumbled the ball deep in his own territory to set up New England's lone TD of the game on an 11-yard TD drive.  They were able to protect a 10-7 lead thanks to the weather in the 2H.  The Patriots have been awful offensively all playoffs.

Indeed, the Patriots have averaged 18.0 points per game in these playoffs, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams.  Drake Maye has been prone to fumbles and interceptions, and I don't trust him as much as I trust the veteran Sam Darnold, who looks primed to go all the way.  Maye aggravated a shoulder injury against the Broncos that could still be an issue two weeks later.  It helps explain why he was so bad against Denver, completing 10-of-21 passes for 86 yards.

Darnold had a monster game against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game to shoot down any questions about his oblique injury.  Darnold went 25-of-36 passing for 346 yards and 3 TD without a turnover against the Rams.  He seems to be all business, and now he gets the opportunity to put to rest the 'seeing ghosts' game against the Patriots early on in his career.  His teammates love him and they are all business, too.  They know they deserve to be here and it's their time, while the Patriots should be just happy to be here given all the breaks they've gotten along the way.

Darnold is 30-7 SU & 25-11-1 ATS over the past two seasons as a starting QB.  Darnold is 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more in his career.  Head coach Mike McDonald has owned young QB's.  Over the last two seasons, in 10 games against QB's under the age of 25, the Seahawks are 9-1 SU allowing just 7 TD passes with 12 INT's and a whopping 30 sacks.  Brock Purdy in 2024 was the lone winner.  Darnold and McDonald have combined to go 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in night games.  It's Seattle's time.  Bet the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Props (1* = 1 Unit)

1* Stevenson O 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1* Stevenson Longest Reception O 11.5 (-110)

1* Walker O 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1* Henderson O 0.5 Receptions (-140)

1* Shaheed O 3.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

1* Shaheed Longest Reception O 14.5 (-110)

1* Shaheed O 29.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5* Holani O 9.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

0.5* Shaheed 40+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+240)

0.5* Stevenson 50+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+595)

0.25* Shaheed 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards (+670)

0.25* Shaheed Most Receiving Yards in Super Bowl (+2500)

0.25* Stevenson Most Receiving Yards in Super Bowl (+4500)

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC Championship No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

Note: I released this play early in the week at +3.  I would still play it as a 20* with the Rams +2.5 or any ML underdog price.

I have the Los Angeles Rams power rated as the best team in the NFL.  So they cannot be catching a full 3 points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is tremendous value, especially when you consider the Rams were 3-point home favorites and only 1.5-point road dogs in the first two meetings in this series.

The Seahawks are getting too much respect for their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  That was a tired, beat up 49ers team that left it all on the field against the Eagles the previous week.  It was a 49ers team down several key starters, and one that lost two more key weapons in that game with RB McCaffrey and backup TE Tonges both going out with injuries.

The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the 49ers and it was basically over from there.  They got to dictate the terms the rest of the game.  Sam Darnold only went 12-of-17 passing for 124 yards so he didn't even really have to test is injured oblique.  The Rams won 41-6 despite just 281 total yards of offense and outgaining the 49ers by just 45 yards.  It was a very misleading final as they were also +3 in turnovers.

Darnold will have to make more plays in the passing game for the Seahawks to be successful because the Rams are going to get their points.  The Rams have the best offense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring at 30.1 points per game, 1st in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.

In their first meeting with the Seahawks, the Rams won 21-19 at home.  They jumped out to a 14-3 and got conservative from there.  The Rams lost 38-37 (OT) in the 2nd meeting in Seattle.  They again had a 30-14 lead in the 4th quarter and got conservative, plus had a few breaks go against them.  They deserved to win that game.

Indeed, the Rams racked up 581 total yards on the Seahawks, who are supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They did it without Davante Adams as well, and he is back now.  They outgained the Seahawks by 166 yards.  Stafford threw for 457 yards and 3 TD in the loss.  The Seahawks even benefited from a 58-yard punt return TD.

The Rams went a lot of 12 personnel in that 2nd meeting with more two TE sets.  The Seahawks rank 29th out of 32 teams in the NFL in defending tight ends.  TE may be the Rams' most underrated position with Ferguson, Parkinson and Hibgee all playmakers.  They have no weaknesses on offense, especially with RG Kevin Dotson returning last week.  The Rams are the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL.  Plus, Stafford hasn't been sacked once in 79 drop backs in two meetings with the Seahawks this season, so they have schemed it up well.

The underrated unit in this matchup is this Rams defense.  It has been so much better with CB Quentin Lake on the field, and he has returned for the playoffs.  In fact, the Rams are allowing 0.6 yards per play fewer with Lake on the field than off it this season.  It really shows up against the run as they allow 3.9 yards per carry with Lake on the field and 4.8 per carry without him.  He's a great tackler on the perimeter, and the Seahawks aren't going to have the same kind of success running outside like they did against the 49ers.  Backup CB Emmanuel Forbes returns this week, and the Rams are fully healthy in the secondary as well.  They couldn't be more healthy than they are right now.

Sean McVay is the better coach here as Mike McDonald has not been in this position before.  McVay is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 meetings with the Seahawks.  The Rams are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS against the Seahawks with Stafford at QB with the lone loss coming by a single point.  Teams on a 7-plus game winning streak entering the conference championship game are just 4-12 ATS since 2002.  This trend just shows how overvalued these teams become.  I'll gladly back the better team catching a full FG here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship No-Brainer on Denver +5.5

Note: I released this play early in the week at +5.5.  I would still play it as a 20* down to +3.5.

This line would have been Denver -1.5 with a healthy Bo Nix.  It opened at Denver +5.5 once it was announced he would be out.  That's a 7-point adjustment from Bo Nix to backup QB Jarrett Stidham.  That's simply too much.  I have a 3-point difference between these QB's and that might even be high.

Nix has been the weak link on this Denver team all season.  Yes, he has come up clutch and has made the plays that he has had to, but they have been winning in spite of him.  Nix has averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with a 90.5 QB Rating in his career.  Stidham is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt in his career.

Stidham is one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL just because he has only made four career starts.  He was drafted by the Patriots to replace Tom Brady, which is how highly they thought of him.  New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels traded for him when he took over as the Raiders head coach.  And Stidham was the first player Sean Payton signed when he took over in Denver, which is how highly he thought of him.  He is one of the top paid backup QB's in the NFL for a reason.

In the preseason this year, Stidham completed 30-of-38 (78.9%) of his passes for 376 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Hew threw for 240 yards and 2 TD's against the Cardinals.  He threw for 136 yards and 2 TD's while also rushing for 36 yards against the 49ers.  He is probably even a more accurate passer than Nix, and though he isn't as mobile, he is mobile enough.

The weakness of this New England defense is their pass defense, so this sets up well for Stidham.  They rank 24th allowing 64.3% completions.  There's no head coach you'd want more to guide a backup QB than Sean Payton.  He is 12-9 SU & 14-7 ATS in his head coaching career with a backup QB starting.

The Patriots have gotten here by facing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.  It has carried over into the playoffs.  Justin Herbert is a shell of himself in the playoffs, and he is playing behind the worst offensive line in the league.  Last week, CJ Stroud and the Texans gave the game away with five turnovers.  The Texans also have a bottom 5 offensive line.  The Patriots only had 248 total yards in that win in terrible conditions.

The Broncos have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game.  They are led by a defense that ranks 3rd in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 287.7 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They have been the best defense in the NFL over the last decade in preventing explosive plays, and that's what the Patriots really rely on offensively.

Drake Maye has gotten away with his poor play because the Chargers and Texans couldn't do anything offensively to take advantage.  Maye already has 6 fumbles and 2 INT in two games in these playoffs.  Now he plays the league's best pass rush in the Broncos, who lead the NFL in sacks.  He doesn't protect the ball and cannot feel pressure very well, and he will be under duress all game.  I don't think he'll get away with his poor decision making on the road in a hostile environment against the Broncos.

Both WR's Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin were ruled out early last week in their win over Buffalo.  The Broncos were able to overcome it, plus an injury to C Alex Forsyth.  But Bryant was a full participant in practice on Thursday and will be a full go, while Franklin and Forsyth both got in limited practices, a sign that they are trending in the right direction.  Now RB JK Dobbins was designated to return from IR this week and would give the offense a huge boost if he returns.  He got in a limited practice Thursday s well.

Home underdogs of +4 or higher in the playoffs are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years.  Drake May won his first two career playoff starts.  Of the seven previous QB's in this spot, they have combined to go 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their 3rd career playoff game.  The Broncos have the rest advantage, and Payton is 5-0 SU in the playoffs in his career with a rest advantage.  The Broncos are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference championship games, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home.  Denver is 28-11-3 ATS as home dogs in November or later over the last 50 years.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* Indiana/Miami National Championship No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 15-0 this season and on the verge of winning the National Championship.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.5 points per game during this 15-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 200.4 yards per game and 2.4 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.  They backed it up with a 56-22 win over Oregon in the semifinals.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They gave up 93 rushing yards on 26 carries to Oregon.  They have allowed 93 or fewer rushing yards in 13 of their last 14 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Miami, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.

The Hurricanes were able to escape with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss in the semifinals after narrow wins over Ohio State and Texas A&M to start the playoff.  Several things happened in that game that I think will be problems for them in this game.  Injuries to Miami piled up in that Ole Miss game, penalties are a problem for them, and they are terrible on special teams.

Miami DB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call against Ole Miss.  Damari Brown may still be out.  CB OJ Frederique played just seven snaps against Ole Miss and is injured.  Two freshmen in CB Ja'Boree Antoine and Chris Ewald will get a lot of playing time.  No question Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza can exploit this weak secondary and will.  He also gets the ball out quickly to negate Miami's biggest strength, which is its pass rush.  The Hurricanes were tired and beaten up along the defensive line against Ole Miss, too.  They only had one sack against the Rebels, who had their defense really on their heels in the 2H.

Miami has the 5th-most penalty yards in FBS, while Indiana has the 6th-fewest.  Mario Cristobal has notoriously been bad in this department as his teams have ranked 85th or worse in penalties in five consecutive seasons.  Miami's lack of discipline will be a problem here.  The Hurricanes had 10 penalties for 74 yards against Ole Miss and could have had even more with a late hit OB not called.  Cignetti has the Hoosiers buttoned up and they will not beat themselves.  

The Hoosiers have been great on special teams, while the Hurricanes have been terrible and don't have a reliable kicker.  Carter Davis is 17-of-23 (73.9%) on the season and missed a key kick against Ole Miss.  And Indiana will hold them to FG's.  Prior to the Oregon game, the Hoosiers had allowed just 6 red zone TD's all season.  They allowed 3 against Oregon but mostly in garbage time.  So they have allowed just 9 red zone TD's all season, making them the best red zone defense in the country.

Miami is playing in its home stadium, but it will not feel like a home game.  Indiana fans will shell out the money to be in attendance for the biggest game in program history.  They will have at least half the stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if it feels like a home game for them with how rabid their fan base is.  They showed out for the Rose Bowl and the Peach Bowl, and they will show out for this game, too.  This has another Hoosiers blowout written all over it.  Bet Indiana Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Bears OVER 50.5

Note: I grabbed OVER 50.5 as soon as it dropped below 51 at most places.  51 is such a key number for NFL totals that I pulled the trigger.  Of course, I wish I would have waited as this total is 48.5 as of this writing.  But there's pretty much no difference between 48.5 and 50.5 as 49 and 50 are really dead numbers unless there's missed XP's.  I love it even more at 48.5.  The tick down on this total has also brought the Rams' team total down to 26.5, and I recommend a bet on the OVER 26.5 as well as I'm very confident the Rams will do their part to get 27-plus points. They have scored at least 28 points in 10 of their last 12 games. BONUS BET: Rams OVER 26.5 Team Total

This total ticking down is solely due to the weather.  It's going to be 20 degrees in Chicago with 15-20 MPH winds.  There's been a lot said about Matthew Stafford in cold weather, but he has actually been great in bad weather recently.  It was windy and rainy in Carolina and he threw for 304 yards and 3 TD while leading the Rams to 34 points.  It was windy and rainy in Seattle and he led the Rams to 37 points and 581 total yards against arguably the league's best defense.  Last year in Philadelphia in the divisional round, it was freezing temps with snow and Stafford threw for 324 yards and 2 TD while leading the Rams to 402 total yards against that Super Bowl Eagles defense.  All this talk about the weather is overblown.  If it was perfect weather, this total should be in the upper-50's.

The Rams are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in all seven games.  The Rams and their opponents have combined to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those seven games.  This includes two games against Arizona and two games against Carolina, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring 34 or more points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring at 30.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense and even get back RG Kevin Dotson this week, who is one of the best guards in the game.  He's a big reason the Rams rank 1st in success rate running the football.  And their ability to run the ball opens up everything for Stafford.

The Bears will offer little resistance defensively.  They rank 29th in total defense at 365.1 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 27th against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per game and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bears lost LB T.J. Edwards (67 tackles) to a season-ending injury against the Packers last week in their wild 31-27 comeback win that saw 58 combined points.  The Packers did whatever they wanted to offensively and finished with 421 total yards.  It was cold and windy in that game, too.

The Bears just played in a classic shootout with the 49ers in Week 17 in a 42-38 loss for 80 combined points.  They are really a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is fully healthy with Caleb Williams having his full compliment of weapons in WR's Odunze, Moore and Burden, TE's Loveland and Kmet and the 2-headed monster at RB in Swift and Monangai.  They also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with PFF ranking them 3rd.  They surrendered a league-low 13 sacks this season, and they paved the way for the 3rd-best rushing attack in the NFL at 141.6 rushing yards per game.

The Bears will stay hot on offense against a Rams defense that has cratered here down the stretch.  The Rams are allowing 28.3 points per game in their last seven games.  Again, that includes four games against two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Cardinals (twice) and Panthers (twice).  Teams are getting whatever they want against this Rams secondary, which is now down another starter with CB Akhello Witherspoon being placed on IR after suffering another injury against Carolina.  Bryce Young led the Panthers to 31 points and 264 passing yards against them last week.

The weather is also negated by the fact that both teams are going to be able to run the football with a ton of success.  I've already stated why the Rams will be successful on the ground, but the Bears' 3rd-ranked rushing attack will be, too.  The Rams are allowing 4.7 yards per carry in their last seven games.  The Falcons rushed for 219 yards on 33 carries and the Seahawks 171 yards on 25 carries recently.  Whatever team is down is going to be able to make a comeback in what should be a back and forth game that features plenty of offensive fireworks.  The only thing I'm certain of is neither of these defenses are going to be able to get many stops.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Divisional Round ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7.5

This is the best coaching job of Kyle Shanahan's career.  The 49ers have been one of the most injured teams in the NFL all season.  They still found themselves playing for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.  They lost to the Seahawks in that game, and they want revenge in a big way against their division rivals.

Shanahan and the 49ers are at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.  They were counted out last week when the Eagles took a ton of money opening -3 and closing -6.  The 49ers upset the Eagles 23-19 on the road, and there was nothing fluky about it.  They were -2 in turnovers and still won while outgaining the Eagles 361 to 307, or by 54 yards.  They held the Eagles to 27 yards on 26 plays to close out the game.

This despite the 49ers playing with three new starters at LB due to injuries suffered in the loss to the Seahawks the week prior.  Eric Hendricks played a great game in his first start for the 49ers and will get the start again.  It looks like Dee Winters and Luke Gifford both have a good shot at returning this week at LB.  And their defensive line is as healthy as it has been in a very long time, plus they have a shutdown corner in Lenoir who literally took AJ Brown out of the game.  

Lenoir could do the same against the NFL's leading receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba if the 49ers so choose.  It's an ace up defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's sleeve that I would be surprised if he doesn't deploy this week.  Saleh is doing the best coaching job of his career, too.

The 49ers got LT Trent Williams back healthy last week after they didn't have him against the Seahawks in Week 18.  He is arguably the best LT in the game.  Ricky Pearsall sat out last week, but there's a good chance he returns this week.  The 49ers didn't have Pearsall against the Seahawks in Week 18, either.  I don't think TE Jake Tonges is that big of a downgrade from Kittle and may actually be the better receiver.  Demarcus Robinson had 7 receptions for 111 yards and a score against the Eagles.  No matter who Shanahan puts out there, this offense is productive.

The Seahawks obviously have the more favorable rest spot after getting a bye week.  But they also have all the pressure on them to perform, most notably Sam Darnold, who has come up short in big games time and time again in his career.  Now Darnold suffered an oblique injury in practice that has him listed as questionable.  While I expect him to play, there's no question that oblique injury will limit him.  And this could be the classic Darnold 'seeing ghosts' game.

After beating the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18, the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' and don't feel like they need to make any adjustments.  You know Kyle Shanahan is going to come up with the best adjustments possible to be more successful offensively.  And with Williams and likely Pearsall back this week, he has a lot more chess pieces to play with.  Their offense will be better, and Saleh will continue to get the most out of this defense, which should be a little healthier this week at LB.

The 49ers are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Seahawks.  Brock Purdy is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in eight career starts against them.  Purdy is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four career trips to Seattle, winning by 10.5 points per game on average.  Purdy is 7-1 SU in road games against NFC West opponents as a starter for the 49ers.  Shanahan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, including 3-0 SU as road underdogs.  The 49ers as a franchise are 11-0 SU in their last 11 Wild Card/Divisional Round games.

The Seahawks are riding a 7-game winning streak into the playoffs.  Teams on a 7+ game winning streak coming off a bye in the divisional round are 2-8 ATS since 2003.  Teams who outscore opponents by 11+ PPG while coming off a bye in the divisional round are 4-12 ATS over the last 20 years.  The 49ers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on short rest, including 9-3 SU on the road during this span.  Shanahan produced the single-highest offensive success rate against the Eagles since Vic Fangio became their defensive coordinator last week.  Getting +7.5 with San Francisco is just disrespectful this week.  Bet the 49ers Saturday.

20* Bills/Broncos AFC Divisional Round No-Brainer on Denver ML +100

The Denver Broncos are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Even in the game they lost, it was a misleading final as they outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346 but were -2 in turnovers in Week 15.  They were 3.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars, who were just 1.5-point home favorites over the Bills last week.  So from a line value perspective alone, the Broncos should be closer to 3-point favorites here if the Jaguars were just favored over the Bills in what was essentially a coin flip game.

The Bills came out of that game battered a bruised.  Josh Allen came into the game with a toe injury, and he proceeded to get checked for a concussion, and suffered injuries to his hand and his knee throughout the game.  He is nowhere near 100%, and he just doesn't have much help around him, especially with all the other injuries they are dealing with.

WR's Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis both suffered season-ending injuries in the game, and RB Ty Johnson is questionable.  The Bills are basically down to 3 healthy receivers in Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman.  Only Shakir of those three is reliable as Cooks is a journeyman while Coleman has been a healthy scratch at times this year.  The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the NFL at defending tight ends, and Patrick Surtain could shadow Dalton Kincaid, something he has done in the past against elite TE's.

Defensively, the Bills lost SS Jordan Poyer (71 tackles) and LB Terrel Bernard (67 tackles) to injuries against the Jaguars.  They were already without CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  This is already one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially against the run.  They rank 28th allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game and 30th allowing 5.2 yards per carry.  The Jaguars just rushed for 154 yards and 6.7 per carry against them last week.

You can bet head coach Sean Payton is going to put this game in the hands of RJ Harvey and this Denver rushing attack as much as possible to exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness, which is their run defense.  The Broncos are better than the Bills everywhere except at QB, which is why I'm not that concerned about backing Bo Nix here.  The Broncos will be able to run the ball, which will open things up for Nix in the play-action passing game and he won't have to do it all on his own.

I obviously like the fact that the Broncos earned the No. 1 seed and a bye week.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they are the healthiest team in the NFL in these playoffs which is a huge advantage for them.  They have the best defense in these playoffs if it's not the Texans.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 278.2 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They are 2nd against the run at 91.1 yards per game, so they will be able to contain James Cook.

The Broncos have the best pass rush in the NFL ranking 1st in the league in sacks by a landslide with 68 sacks.  Josh Allen struggles against teams that can pressure the passer, and we saw that time and time again this season.  The Falcons rank 2nd in sacks, and the Bills were upset 24-14 in Atlanta and managed just 291 total yards.  The Browns were 3rd in sacks, and the Bills were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 win in Cleveland against Shedeur Sanders, managing just 259 total yards.  The Texans are 9th in sacks, and the Bills lost 23-19 in Houston to Davis Mills.

Sean Payton is 4-0 SU in the playoffs with extended prep time/rest.  The Broncos are extra motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Bills in Buffalo last year.  The Broncos are 13-2 SU in home games with Carl Cheffers as the head ref.  Sean Payton is 16-3 SU with Cheffers in his career as the head official.  The Bills are on a short week playing the early Saturday game after facing the Jaguars last Sunday.  I'll gladly back the more rested, healthier, team that is better everywhere but at QB in this game at home.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN MNF No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football dating back to 1992 when there have been fans in the stands.  Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 SU on Monday Night Football home or away.

The Steelers managed to beat the Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs in Week 18 to win the division and get into the playoffs.  They did it without their best weapon in DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD), a compliment to Aaron Rodgers and his ability to get the most out of this offense.  Rodgers threw for 294 yards and a TD in the win.

Now Metcalf is back and the Steelers are as healthy as they have been on offense all season.  No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin had 3 receptions for 55 yards and a TD against the Ravens in his return from injury.  Kenneth Gainwell is an absolute weapon out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 64 yards in the win.

The Steelers are also very healthy on defense right now and playing well.  They got TJ Watt back for the game against Baltimore, and he is good to go for the playoffs.  The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in sacks this season, and they are great at getting pressure on opposing QB's.  And I think that will be the difference in this game.

CJ Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He is also not very mobile and more of a pocket passer.  The Steelers will be getting after him for four quarters.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quicker than any other QB.  That helps negate Houston's pass rush, which ranks 9th in the NFL in sacks per game.  The Steelers will come up with creative ways to take away Houston's biggest strength, which is their pass rush.

The home-field advantage for the Steelers for a Monday Night game isn't being factored into this line enough.  This line should be much closer to PK.  So getting +3.5 with the Steelers at home is a tremendous value, which I grabbed early in the week.  I still think there's plenty of value at the current line of +3 as of this writing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closes +2.5.  I fully expect the Steelers to win this game outright.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* Chargers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Patriots have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense heading into the playoffs.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  They will hang a big number on the Chargers in this one, and the Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.

The Patriots do have inflated numbers defensive due to playing the weakest schedule of opposing QB's.  In their last two games against good QB's, the Patriots won 28-24 over Baltimore for 52 combined points and the Ravens stalled after Lamar Jackson got hurt.  They lost a 35-31 shootout to Josh Allen and the Bills for 66 combined points.

Justin Herbert is one of the best QB's in the NFL and his offensive line will be much healthier heading into the playoffs after the Chargers sat their starters last week.  He is also very mobile so the OL injuries haven't been much of a problem.  The Patriots have a great run defense, but their pass defense is their weakness, particularly their ability to get after opposing QB's.  They rank 25th in the NFL in sacks despite playing so many bad QB's and having big leads in most of their games.

This is a very short total for a game involving the Patriots.  The OVER is 9-2 in Patriots last 11 games overall.  The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 46 or more in eight of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 knowing that the No. 2 seed was still available.  Had they won, they would have been the No. 2 seed, but they lost to the Commanders.  It shows the confidence of this team and this coaching staff to know that as long as they are healthy going into the playoffs, they can beat anyone home or away.

The Eagles have gone 11-6 this season with their 'C+ game'.  They have had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but they have also just not opened the entire playbook on offense preferring to control games with their defense.  They have a lot more to give, and that playbook will be opened for the playoffs, where the Eagles have thrived in recent seasons.

Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game.  Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career, including 13-1 SU in December or later.  Hurts hasn't used his legs much all season to try and stay healthy, but he will be putting it all on the line in the playoffs, and his legs are the key to opening up this offense and maximizing it.

Brock Purdy is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Purdy will have his hands full against this Philadelphia defense, which profiles similarly to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Eagles can get pressure without blitzing, which was their key to winning the Super Bowl last year, especially shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the finale.

Well, the 49ers just played the Seahawks last week with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.  They lost 13-3 as they couldn't get anything going offensively.  It was an even bigger blowout than that 13-3 final showed as the Seahawks missed two field goals and kicked 4 of them.  The Seahawks outgained the 49ers 361 to 173, or by 188 total yards.  They also had 23 first downs compared to 9 for the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will be similarly dominant.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will get LT Lane Johnson back for the playoffs, and he is key to their success.  Philadelphia is 122-61-1 SU when Lane plays, and 18-29 SU when he doesn't.  The entire 2-deep for this Philadelphia defense is healthy, and that's bad news for the 49ers.  Kyle Shanahan hasn't scored more than 15 points against a Vic Fangio defense in his career as a head coach or coordinator.  He just can't figure it out, and he won't figure it out this weekend.

The worst unit of the entire playoffs is this banged up San Francisco 49ers defense.  They have been terrible without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pressure rate in the NFL.  Things have gone from bad to worse.  All three starting LB's were injured against the Seahawks.  Warner's backup Bethune (94 tackles) suffered a season-ending injury, while both Winters (101 tackles) and Gifford (35 tackles) are questionable after not practicing most of the week.  CB Green (59 tackles, 9 PD) is questionable as well.  What a mess this defense is, and the Eagles will be able to do whatever they want against them.

Injuries are a problem for the 49ers on offense as well.  LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall both missed the Seattle game.  Pearsall is very important because he is on the one reliable target that can get open consistently, but he re-aggravated his PCL injury and is doubtful.  Williams is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and he won't be able to do the things he normally would as far as blocking downfield even if he does play.  Purdy has some of the worst weapons in the NFL right now with Jennings and Robinson and his top two receivers.   They couldn't get separation against Seattle, and they won't be able to get separation against these star CB's of the Eagles in DeJean and Mitchell.  The Eagles rank 8th allowing 189.8 passing yards per game and 1st in completion percentage at 56.8%.

The Eagles played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season after winning the Super Bowl.  They had to face the Chiefs, Rams, Packers Lions, Bears, Chargers and Bills.  They held the Bills scoreless through 3 quarters on the road in the final game they tried to win in Week 17.  Nobody shuts down Buffalo at home, and they did just that.  The 49ers only faced five playoff teams all season.  They had a very soft schedule down the stretch that had them overvalued going into that Week 18 game against Seattle, and continues to have them overvalued in Wild Card weekend.  This game has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Bills/Jaguars AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Jacksonville +1

The Bills are getting too much respect for their playoff experience and what they've done in the past.  This matchup favors the Jaguars everywhere but at QB, but you could make the argument that Trevor Lawrence had the better season.  And with Josh Allen battling a toe injury that required X-Rays at the end of his two most recent games, he's clearly nowhere near 100%.

Buffalo kicker Matt Prater will be limited and didn't practice until late in the week.  Jacksonville has one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, who made both attempts of 67-plus this season.  He made 30-of-34 (88.2%) of his FG attempts this season including 8-of-10 from 50-plus.  He's an absolute weapon for them.

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 1st in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game during this span.  They did beat some bad teams during this stretch, but they also crushed two playoff teams in the Broncos 34-20 on the road and the Chargers 35-6 at home.  They are quietly playing better than anyone in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

Josh Allen is 7-0 at home in his playoff career, but those seven wins came against 40-year old Philip Rivers, Snoop Huntley, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, Bo Nix in his first career playoff start and Lamar Jackson, who is 3-5 in the playoffs.  The Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.  In fact, the Bills are 0-8 on the road in the playoffs over the last 33 years with their last road win coming in 1993.

Both teams have strong offenses, but the difference in this game is the Jaguars have the much superior defense.  That's especially the case against the run.  Teams that can shut down James Cook and make the Bills have to throw the ball have the most success against them.  The Jaguars are equipped to do just that.  They rank 1st in the NFL allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game.  The Bills rank 28th allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.  He also has two previous playoff starts under his belt and is ready for this moment.

The Bills had three of their worst games on the road this season.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites, lost 30-13 at Miami as 8-point favorites, lost 23-19 at Houston as 5-point favorites against Davis Mills, and escaped with a 23-20 win as 10.5-point favorites at Cleveland in their final road game of the season.  I'll gladly back the better, hotter, healthier home team as underdogs in this one.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Jaguars OVER 50.5

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game during this span.  The Jaguars are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 51 or more combined points in six of those 10 games.  This total of 50.5 is too short for a game involving the Jaguars right now.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.

The Jaguars will hang a big number on this soft, beat up Bills defense, and the Bills will have to go to a more pass-happy approach to try and keep up.  That will greatly benefit the OVER.  The Bills are potent themselves offensively ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.3 points per game, 4th in total offense at 376.3 yards per game and 4th at 6.1 yards per play.  They also know they won't be able to run it on Jacksonville's defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL against the run.  So they will be smart about it and keep the ball in Josh Allen's hands for four quarters.  This has shootout written all over it, especially with temps in the 60's and winds not being much of a factor.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.

20* Oregon/Indiana Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Indiana -4

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 14-0 this season and on the verge of reaching the National Championship Game.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.3 points per game during this 14-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 215.8 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon has benefited from a soft schedule and some breaks to get here.  The Ducks only beat Group of 5 James Madison 51-34 in the playoff opener while allowing a whopping 509 total yards.  And last week's 23-0 win over Texas Tech was very misleading.  The Red Raiders gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  Their rust showed, especially QB Behren Morton.  The Big 12 as a whole was down this season, so that win over the Big 12's best isn't that impressive.

Now they must face the Big Ten's best, a team they already got dominated by at home.  Not only did Indiana beat Indiana 30-20, they did so by overcoming a pick-6 by Heisman Trophy QB Fernando Mendoza.  The Hoosiers held the Ducks to just 267 total yards in the win.  It was an even more dominant result than the final score showed, and it was in Autzen Stadium on the road.  Now the Hoosiers will be playing in Atlanta here in the Peach Bowl and will no question have the home-field advantage with more fans in attendance.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in 12 of their last 13 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Oregon, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.  The Hoosiers have ran the ball on everyone, and they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Bet Indiana Friday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -3

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with six straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 9.7 points per game in those six games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

If everyone though that was a fluke, they proved them wrong again by manhandling Ohio State on both sides of the football in a dominant 24-14 win in the quarterfinals.  They held the Buckeyes to 45 rushing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 1.9 yards per carry.  

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country.  The Hurricanes rank 5th allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 6th at 2.8 yards per carry.  They are 3rd in the country averaging 3.3 sacks per game.  They had 7 sacks against Texas A&M and 5 sacks against Ohio State.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  He had 90 rushing yards on 19 carries against Ohio State.  After facing those two defenses and handling them, the Hurricanes actually take a big step down in class here against this suspect Ole Miss defense.

The Rebels rank 38th in total defense at 340.1 yards per game, 41st at 5.2 yards per play, 62nd allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game and 49th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.  Georgia's RB Nate Frazier had 86 rushing yards on 15 carries before leaving with an injury.  That really changed the game and allowed the Rebels to come back in the 2H as they finally got a few stops on Georgia in a 39-34 upset win.

Georgia's weakness was getting after the opposing QB with pressure, and Ole Miss was able to take advantage of it with Trinidad Chambliss making all kinds of plays off script deep down the field.  Those plays won't be there against this Miami defense, which will get home much more than Georgia and Tulane did.  And Miami's defense will be the difference in this game.

Carson Beck will have his best game of the playoffs yet as he takes a big step down in class here against this Ole Miss defense.  Beck hasn't had to do much because the Hurricanes have been so dominant with their defense and running game.  They will control the game again for four quarters with their defense and running game, and Beck will make the plays necessary which he has thus far.  

Ole Miss is dealing with a ton of distractions with coaches spending time game-planning for the playoffs while also recruiting at LSU for Lane Kiffin.  Several of their coaches won't be allowed to coach in this game, and really only offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss is still with the team.  They've had extra time coming into their last two games, but now they are on a short week here after playing last Thursday, while Miami has an extra day of prep playing last Wednesday.  That's a small advantage that could make a big difference in this game.

I also think Ole Miss despite being distracted has benefited from having played Tulane twice AND Georgia twice.  They already had the scouting reports on both teams, which made the game planning much easier.  They have nothing on Miami and only 6 days to get ready for the Hurricanes.  They won't be ready for the physicality the Hurricane brings as they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Their defense is also great at taking away the quick passing game that Ole Miss relies on.  The Hurricanes are the better, more rested and focused team and it will show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.  Bet Miami Thursday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Panthers/Bucs NFC South No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3

It's easy to see there's value on the Bucs -3 in Week 18.  They were 3-point road favorites at Carolina in their first meeting just two weeks ago, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bucs this week.

They are 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall so bettors want nothing to do with them.  That's the time you want to back a team when everyone is off of them.  The Bucs have lost four straight coin flip games all by 4 points or fewer.  They outgained three of their four opponents, so they were the better team in the stats but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.

What I like about the Bucs is that they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  Baker Mayfield gets LT Triston Wirfs back this week after he sat out last week, and this offense is fully healthy and capable of hanging a big number on Carolina.  The Bucs are also pretty healthy on defense and will activate their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey from IR this week.  They are really only missing a couple guys in the secondary now.

I don't think this young Panthers team is ready for this moment to go on the road and dethrone the Bucs, who have owned this division and come up clutch late in the season year after year.  I think they have one more clutch game in them to keep their hopes alive for winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Falcons could beat the Saints on Sunday and ruin that, but the Bucs know they have to handle their business first on Saturday for it to even matter.  The Panthers have the luxury of knowing they can lose this game and still win the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday.  The Bucs are in true 'must win' mode, while the Panthers are now.

The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division last week and fell flat on their faces in a 27-10 home loss to the Seahawks.  Their offense was held to 139 total yards by Seattle in a game that was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed even though it was close for a while.  This Carolina offense has averaged just 231.7 yards per game in its last three games and is broken.

The Panthers won't get back RG Robert Hunt this week, one of their best offensive linemen.  They also lost starting TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to the IR with an injury suffered last week.  Defensively, they will be without two starting LB's in Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace, plus they have some cluster injuries in the secondary.  DE Tershawn Wharton is questionable as well.

Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU in his career against the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home.  Bryce Young is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting.  Mayfield and the Bucs will be ready for the moment today while Young and the Panthers will not.  Bet the Bucs Saturday.

20* Navy/Cincinnati Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Navy -4

For starters, Service Academies like Navy are 19-3 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Navy in the Liberty Bowl today.

The Bearcats don't want to be here.  They lost four straight games to close out the season when they were in contention for a Big 12 title.  They have had at least a dozen players opt out of this bowl game, most notably QB Brendan Sorsby, who is listed by 247Sports as the top-ranked QB in the transfer portal.

Sorsby is completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 580 yards and 9 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  It's a major blow as now the Bearcats are down to four-year senior Brady Lichtenberg who has 333 career passing yards and freshman Samaj Jones, who has just 2 pass attempts this season.

The losses are huge on defense, where almost the entire secondary is following CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.  The Bearcats will be without S Christian Harrison (66 taclkes, 1 INT), S Trevon Gola-Collard (71 tackles, 3 PD), S Jiquan Sanks (50 tackles, 4 PD), CB Logan Wilson (35 taclkles, 6 PD), DE Mikah Coleman (33 tackles), CB Ormaine Arnold (16 tackles, 3 PD), S Tayden Barnes (25 tackles) and a couple other depth pieces.  DE Dontay Corleone has declared for the NFL Draft.

The weakness of this Cincinnati defense is against the run where they allow 173.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  The Bearcats allowed 228 or more rushing yards in four of their final six games.  That's bad news for them going up against this potent Navy triple-option, which ranks 1st in the country at 289.3 rushing yards per game and 4th at 5.8 per carry.

Navy Senior QB Blake Horvath wants to finish his career strong as arguably the best QB in program history.  He has rushed for 1,147 yards and 15 TD, but he's the best passer they have ever had completing 61.1% of his passes for 1,472 yards and 10 TD this season.  He will have a huge game as the Midshipmen run away with this one.  Bet Navy Friday.

25* CFB Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State -14

Texas State fought hard down the stretch to make a bowl game after a 3-6 start.  They went 3-0 in their final three games with blowout wins over Southern Miss 41-14, LA-Monroe 31-14 and South Alabama 49-26.  Now they will be extra motivated to finish it off with a winning record.

Texas State is arguably the best 6-6 team in the country when you look at the numbers.  The Bobcats went 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so they were very close to being a 10-2 team.  Their only two blowout losses came to Arizona State and James Madison, one of the best teams in the Big 12 plus a playoff team.

Texas State averages 476.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 399.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play on defense.  The Bobcats are outgaining opponents by 77 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play, which is the sign of a team that is much better than 6-6.

I'll gladly lay the big number here with the Bobcats because they have an elite, up-tempo offense and will keep pouring on the points for four quarters.  They rank 12th in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.3 yards per game and 16th at 6.7 per play.  They don't have anyone significant in the transfer portal.

Rice only got an invite to this bowl game with a 5-7 record because other teams opted out.  I don't think the Owls even want to be here.  The Owls started 3-1 but dropped six of their final eight games, including blowout losses to North Texas 56-24 and South Florida 52-3 in their final two games.

QB Chase Jenkins hit the transfer portal, a player this putrid Rice offense could not afford to be without.  He threw for 1,025 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and five scores.  His dual-threat ability was the only thing saving this offense.  Even with Jenkins, the Owls ranks 112th in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 311.2 yards per game and 130th at 4.6 yards per play.  They have no chance to keep up with Texas State in this one.

Making matters worse for the offense is they will be without second-leading receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TD) and RB Daelen Alexander (392 yards, 3 TD).  The Owls also lost to UTSA by 48 and Memphis by 24 down the stretch.  They allowed 34 or more points in five of their final six games.  They are prone to getting blown out, and they will get blown out by a better, more motivated Bobcats team today.  Bet Texas State Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Georgia Sugar Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Georgia -6

This will be a rematch from a 43-35 home win by Georgia over Ole Miss on October 18th.  Georgia didn't punt once, outgained Ole Miss 510 to 351, or by 159 total yards, and made the 2H adjustments which they have been doing all season to stymie the Ole Miss offense.  Now having seen that offense and with extra prep time, I fully expect Kirby Smart to come up with the proper game plan to slow it down again in the rematch.

That 2H performance against Ole Miss propelled Georgia to a big finish to the season.  Gunnar Stockton went 26-of-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 TD, while also rushing for 59 yards and a score in the win.  And while I trust Stockton and this offense to have another big game in the rematch, it's the improvement of this Georgia defense that has me really high on this team in this matchup.

The Bulldogs have allowed a total of just 70 points in six games since beating Ole Miss, an average of just 11.7 points per game.  They held Texas to 10 points, Charlotte to 3, Georgia Tech to 9 and Alabama to 7 in their last four games coming in.  You could argue the Bulldogs are playing as well as anyone in the country defensively right now.

While Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, the Rebels have a suspect defense that won't allow them to compete for four quarters with Georgia.  They rank 40th in total defense at 43rd at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 64th in rushing defense allowing 147.8 yards per game and 70th at 4.3 yards per carry allowed.  Georgia will get whatever it wants offensively, again.

Ole Miss was able to handle Tulane 41-10 at home in the playoff opener.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Ole Miss allowed 421 total yards to Tulane and only outgained them by 76 yards for the game.  The Rebels were fine without head coach Lane Kiffin for that game, but I don't trust their staff in key moments in this game against Georgia.

Many of the coaches on this staff will be joining Kiffin at LSU once this season is over.  They have been going back and forth between Ole Miss and LSU with one foot out the door.  That can only be a distraction.  Plus, new head coach Pete Golding hasn't been in this position before and will be making some tough decisions against Georgia that I just don't know if he's ready for.  I know Kirby Smart will be ready for it.  Bet Georgia Thursday.

15* Alabama/Indiana Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

If Alabama had the stats Indiana has and vice versa, Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Indiana.  But because of their names on their jerseys and the failure for most to believe what Indiana is doing, we are getting the Hoosiers at a discount as only 7-point favorites over the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana proved itself worthy going on the road and beating Oregon by 10 and upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on a neutral.  The Hoosiers have elite numbers, averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.5 yards per play.

Alabama has weak numbers averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  And the Crimson Tide have gotten worse as the season has gone on when you dive into the numbers.

In their last five games, the Crimson Tide lost outright at home to Oklahoma before a cruising win over Eastern Illinois.  They were fortunate to beat Auburn, getting outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 total yards.  They then lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  And although they beat Oklahoma 34-24 on the road in the rematch, it was the most misleading final of the first round.  They were outgained 362 to 260 by the Sooners, or by 102 yards.  They benefited from a pick-6 and two missed FG's by Oklahoma.

The most shocking stat about Alabama that gives them no chance here is rushing for 80 or fewer yards in five of their last seven games.  They were held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia and 28 rushing yards on 25 carries by Oklahoma in their last two games.  They cannot run the football, and being one-dimensional doesn't work against Indiana.  WR Ryan Williams has been a non-factor for Alabama, too.  

It's supposed to rain throughout the Rose Bowl, and not being able to run the ball will be a huge disadvantage for the Crimson Tide.  Indiana has tremendous balance ranking 11th in rushing at 221.2 yards per game and 46th in passing at 251.6 yards per game.  You can run on this Alabama defense, which ranks 27th at 120.6 rushing yards per game allowed.  You cannot run on this Indiana defense, which ranks 3rd allowing 77.6 rushing yards per game and just held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They also held Oregon to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, which were the two best rushing attacks they faced all season.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* Oregon/Texas Tech Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2.5

Texas Tech has been disrespected all season.  The Red Raiders are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in college football.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as underdogs to Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

The Red Raiders made the most out of their massive NIL fund and have some of the best talent in the country, which is why this is no fluke.  In particular, their defense is a juggernaut.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 254.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.

What I really like about this matchup against Oregon is the Red Raiders rank 1st in rushing yards per game allowed at 68.5 and 1st at 2.3 yards per rush allowed.  The Ducks need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Red Raiders are going to shut down their running game and make Dante Moore try and beat them through the air.  They did the same thing in consecutive blowout wins against BYU, shutting down their running game and Bear Bachmeir couldn't beat them through the air.

I also think the ceiling for this Texas Tech offense is even higher than what we've seen all season simply because QB Behren Morton wasn't healthy, playing with a hairline fracture in his fibula.  He was in a walking boot most the season and only got in one practice each week in every game he started.  And in the only game they lost, Will Hammond was the QB against Arizona State, and the Sun Devils needed a lot of good fortune to beat them late in that game.

The 26-day layoff since the Big 12 Championship Game has done wonders for Morton.  He is out of his walking boot for the first time since suffering the injury.  "This whole bowl prep has been really good for me," Morton said. "I've been basically a hundred percent in practice as far as team reps. I haven't been able to do team reps really all season long. ... Just getting the body back to playing football again -- it's been a while since I've gotten to do that."

"Staying in a boot the whole entire week, not getting to practice, then taking the boot off on Saturday and getting to play, it was not fun at all," said Morton, who said coach Joey McGuire granted him one day of practice prior to the Big 12 title game against BYU.

The Ducks lost both coordinators to coaching jobs which is a distraction in bowl prep.  Dan Lanning has yet to win a big game and time and time again comes up short in key moments of close games.  He is a great recruiter and motivator, but he hasn't proven himself as a great game manager yet.

Against the four best defenses Oregon faced this season in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks were held to an average of 20 points per game, 300 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Their offense can be stopped, and their defense certainly isn't as good as Texas Tech.  That was evident when they allowed 509 total yards to James Madison in their 51-34 home win in the first round of the college football playoff.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Miami/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

Ohio State is getting too much respect for winning the national title last season.  It's very hard to go back-to-back, and we saw chinks in their armor in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with five straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 8.8 points per game in those five games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

Ohio State benefited from a very easy schedule.  In their two biggest step up games against Texas and Indiana, they were outgained 376 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 173 total yards.  They were also outgained 342 to 324 by the Hoosers, or by 18 yards.  They were held to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries by Indiana.

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country and can shut down that Ohio State rushing attack as well.  The Hurricanes rank 7th allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 9th at 2.9 yards per carry.  They are 6th in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game, and they will get after the overrated Julian Sayin, who did not perform well in those Texas and Indiana games.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  They will get him going again, and the conditions will be much more favorable for QB Carson Beck indoors to have a better game here.  I trust his experience and trust him to make the right plays against this vaunted Ohio State defense to keep the Hurricanes in this game for four quarters.

The total has been set around 40 for this game so it is expected to be a defensive battle.  Getting 9.5 points in a game with such a low total is a tremendous value.  I think this game is much closer than the odds suggest, and it would take a couple catastrophic mistakes from Miami to get blown out here.  Player for player, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the country that has the talent to match the Buckeyes.  Bet Miami Wednesday.

15* Michigan/Texas Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5

This is more of a fade of Texas than it is a play on Michigan.  The Longhorns made the 12-team playoff semifinals each of the last two seasons.  They felt slighted that they didn't get in this season, and I just don't think they care at all about the Citrus Bowl.

That's evident by the alarming amount of opt-outs and transfers the Longhorns have leading into this bowl game.  They will be without seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count.  They will be without S Michael Taaffe (70 tackles, 2 INT), LB Liona Lefau (68 tackles), CB Malik Muhammad (30 tackles, 2 INT), CB Jaylon Guilbeau (40 tackles, 1 INT), LB Anthony Hill (70 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), EDGE Trey Moore (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and EDGE Ethan Burke (40 tackles, 3 sacks) and S Derek Williams Jr. (23 tackles).  That also means they will be without eight of their top 13 tacklers.

Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their top three RB's, OL Connor Stroh and WR DeAndre Moore (38 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TD).  Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski as well.  The Longhorns are a mess heading into this bowl game, and they shouldn't be favored by more than a TD against a Michigan team that will have almost all hands on deck.

Interim head coach Biff Poggi has done a great job of keeping this team together amidst the Sherrone Moore scandal.  Head head coach Kyle Whittingham was able to convince most of these players to stay, including 5-star QB Byrce Underwood, who will play in the Citrus Bowl.  In fact, the Wolverines are only expected to be without 3 starters in EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham and LG Giovanni El-Hadi as all three prepare for the NFL Draft.  Everyone made the trip to Orlando except the three opt-outs and expect a very full roster.

Poggi went 2-0 as head coach taking over for a suspended Moore this season.  The players love him and will play hard for him, and motivation is everything in bowl games.  "I was kind of stunned for a while," Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan said. "I didn't know what to think. But at the end of the day, we're still the same team. One person doesn't define who we are. I'm not going to let what happened define me. And I know the rest of the team isn't also going to let that happen."

The Big Ten is 6-1 SU against the SEC over the last two seasons in bowl games.  I think the Big Ten takes more pride in these head-to-head matchups because everyone around the country claims the SEC is better.  They take it personal, and Michigan will take pride in trying to knock off Texas in the Citrus Bowl as well.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Vanderbilt NYE Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are like a service academy.  They are always going to show up in bowl games with basically all hands on deck and minimal opt outs.  That's the kind of program they run at Iowa, and that's the kind of team you want to back in bowl season.  They have zero opt outs this season with all hands on deck.

“They love playing together, and they couldn't imagine being out there without the guy next to him, and it's such a unbelievable bond," offensive coordinator Tim Lester said of his Hawkeyes team.

"It's what football's supposed to be like. And I don't even think it crossed anyone's mind. We’re all going out there, we're going to go out there and play together. That's the program that coach (Ferentz) runs. And it's awesome to be a part of.”

Iowa may be the best 8-4 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes' four losses this season all came by 5 points or fewer and to Top 20 teams at the time they played them.  They were actually tied or leading in the 4th quarter of all four of those losses, too.  That includes a 5-point loss to Indiana and a 2-point loss to Oregon, two playoff teams with a legit shot to win the national title.

I question Vanderbilt's motivation for this bowl game after the Commodores thought they'd have a shot at winning a national title, too.  Instead, they were left out of the 12-team playoff despite a 10-2 record in what is perceived as the best conference in football in the SEC.  If Alabama or Georgia were 10-2 with the same schedule, they would have gotten in.  But because they are lowly Vanderbilt, they did not get in.

I know the Commodores have very few opt outs, but the one they do have is a big one.  TE Eli Stowers (61 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) won the Mackey Award as the nation's best tight end.  He is by far Diego Pavia's favorite target.  Speaking of Pavia, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting and complained about voters afterwards.  I think his own team is getting tired of his act.  The Hawkeyes have extra motivation to get after him and shut him up as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

20* USC/TCU Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on TCU +6.5

The only reason this line is as high as it is is because TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play.  But the Horned Frogs look to have everyone else prepared to play in this game and finish the season strong.  And I don't think the loss of Hoover hurts TCU more than all the opt-outs for USC.  And I have no doubt TCU wants to be playing in this bowl game more than USC does, and motivation is everything in bowl season.

The Horned Frogs will be in good hands with 5th-year Senior QB Ken Seals.  He started 22 games in the SEC at Vanderbilt.  He has thrown for 4,413 yards and 29 TD in his career, and he played on some very bad Vanderbilt teams.  He has way more weapons around him at TCU to be successful, especially with leading WR Eric McCalister (64 receptions, 1,121 yards, 10 TD) and TE DJ Rogers (32 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TD) both electing to play in this bowl game.

Three key defenders in S Jamel Johnson (89 tackles, 4 INT), S Bud Clark (54 tackles, 4 INT) and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Leading tackler, 119 tackles, 4 sacks) were all potential opt-outs who are all going to play in this game bowl.  I think the amount of participation they are getting from all of their top plays says everything you need to know about how much this Alamo Bowl in their home state of Texas means to this team.

"It feeds into next year. We want to leave this place better than how we found it," Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It was us coming together one more time. It's just a blessing and something we wanted to do."

"We have a tremendous culture, and again, I think it revealed itself at the end of the year, in the fact that our guys played so hard down the stretch and it meant something to them," Dykes said of a team that finished the regular season with wins over then-No. 23 Houston and Cincinnati.

"Ken started 22 games in the SEC," Dykes said. "He's been a great teammate, a great practice player. Now he's going to get a chance to go perform on the big stage. He's excited about it, our team believes in him, and we've moving on quickly."

USC has a laundry list of opt-outs and will be a shell of itself for this bowl game.  The Trojans will be without their top three receivers in Makai Lemon (79 receptions, 1,156 yards, 11 TD), Ja'Kobi Lane (49 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) and TE Lake McRee (30 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD).  Starting LT Elijah Paige and C Killian O'Connor, their two best linemen, won't play due to injury.  QB Jayden Maiava will play, but he has almost no chance to be successful behind this offensive line and without those weapons.

The Trojans lost defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn to Penn State, and he was the main reason they had an improved defense this season.  The Trojans will be without a handful of key defenders in LB Eric Gentry (76 taclkes, 3 sacks), S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles), EDGE Anthony Lucas (37 tackles, 3 sacks), DT Keeshawn Silver (17 tackles) and DE Jahkeem Stewart (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks).  What a mess.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Illinois Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Illinois +3.5

After making the 12-team playoff last season, I question how motivated the Tennessee Volunteers will be to be playing in the Music City Bowl this season.  And given all their opt outs coming into this game, it's easy to see they will be a shell of their regular season selves for this game.

Tennessee will be without leading WR Chris Brazzell II (62 receptions, 1,017 yards, 9 TD) as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  They will also be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (76 tackles), DE Joshua Josephs (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Colton Hood (50 tackles, 1 INT).  They were already without their top two corners due to injury all season.

No question Illinois is excited to be here.  That is evident by their lack of opt outs as the only key guy they will be missing is LB Gabe Jacas.  QB Luke Altmyer (68.1% completions, 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio) and two of his favorite targets in WR Hank Beatty (Leading receiver, 64 receptions, 826 yards, 3 TD) and TE Tanner Arkin have decided to play in this game.

Altmyer recalls attending the 2011 Music City Bowl to root on his hometown team, Mississippi State. "These bowl games are very, very core memories for families, for myself, for the guys obviously," Altmyer said. "It's something I don't take for granted. It's going to stick with me forever, so I'm going to give it my best to make it a good one."

Altmyer and company should light up this short-handed Tennessee defense.  The Vols were last seen allowing 582 total yards in a 45-24 home loss to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.  They didn't show up for that game, and I don't expect them to show up for this game, either.  Illinois will be the team playing with more intensity and that's everything in bowl season.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Rams/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams just put up 581 total yards in a 38-37 loss at Seattle last week in their first game without star WR Devante Adams.  If that's not the case for Matthew Stafford to win MVP I don't know what is.  This is the best offense in the NFL and it will be on display again tonight in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  

This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving the Rams, who have a suspect defense.  The Rams are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 59 points with Carolina, 62 with Arizona, 75 with Detroit and 75 with Seattle.

The Rams will get their points, and I think the Falcons can keep up in a shootout.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 26 points on the Cardinals last week.  Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are developing a great chemistry, and WR Drake London just returned from injury last week and should have a big game this week.

I also like the fact that both teams are great at running the football with two-headed monsters at RB, which makes things easier when they get into the red zone to put up touchdowns instead of field goals.  The Falcons have rushed for at least 111 yards in seven consecutive games, and the Rams have rushed for at least 119 yards in seven of their last eight games.

Both defenses have struggled against the run with the Falcons ranking 26th allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game and 25th at 4.6 yards per carry allowed.  The Rams allow 4.1 yards per carry and just gave up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries to the Seahawks last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak.  He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis.  He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots.  Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance.  The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.  

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose.  It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks.  They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week.  They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch.  That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won.  They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game.  Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL.  He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run.  They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game.  And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game.  They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller.  They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line.  The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season.  They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.  It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks.  The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami.  They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago.  Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play.  The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable.  Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation.  This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser.  My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more.  They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible.  Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season.  We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami.  Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again.  Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago.  This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now.  C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five.  That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what.  The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints.  I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets.  He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year.  It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game.  A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points.  They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points.  And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs.  The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying.  And that's the case with both of these teams.  I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17.  This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks.  This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards.  They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check.  The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.  

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points.  Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.  This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season.  They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week.  The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts.  This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain.  I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders.  In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football.  They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points.  Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss.  The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore +5

This will be a battle of backup QB's with the Ravens going with a healthy Tyler Huntley and the Packers going with a banged up Malik Morris who was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.  Jordan Love has been ruled out for this one with a concussion.

I actually think the Ravens have the better QB in Huntley and the better overall roster right now from a healthy standpoint.  They should not be catching this many points on the road as the only thing the Packers have going for them is home-field advantage.

The Ravens also have the motivational advantage.  They are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose this game, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  The Packers were just gifted a spot in the playoffs thanks to an upset loss by the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.  Now the Packers have a very slim chance to even improve their seeding as they'd need the Bears to lose their final two games while the Packers win their final two games to win the division.  That's pretty unlikely and they know it.

The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  This run dates back to Huntley's last start, a 30-16 home win over the Chicago Bears.  Huntley went 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and a TD while also rushing for 53 yards in the win.  I don't even think he's that big of a downgrade from the current version of Lamar Jackson, who has been playing through injury for weeks.  The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL even with the Jackson injury factored in.  They have everyone healthy on offense with the exception of Jackson and all their best players healthy on defense with all 11 starters.

The Packers are coming off consecutive losses to the Broncos 34-26 on the road and the Bears 22-16 on the road.  They needed to go to OT against the Bears last week, so that will make them even more tired coming into this one.  And the injuries are much worse than just Jordan Love.  They are missing arguably their two most important defenders in DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Micah Parsons.  SS Evan Williams is questionable.  

You can run up the middle against the soft part of this Green Bay defense, so expect Derrick Henry to have a big game.  The Ravens have rushed for an average of 192.3 yards per game in their last three games and rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  Offensively, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Tom and WR Christian Watson are all questionable.  They are already without C Elgton Jenkins to IR.  Baltimore has proven it has one of the best defenses in the NFL since a return to health nine games ago off their bye week.  They have allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last 10 games.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* North Texas/San Diego State New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on North Texas -6

North Texas should have almost all hands on deck for this bowl game.  That makes the Mean Green a potent team, one that came up just short of making the 12-team playoff.  Eric Morris wanted to coach the bowl game, but the rest of the staff remains intact for it so there still should be good chemistry heading into this game.

"These guys are locked in," North Texas interim coach Drew Svoboda said. "Initially, obviously, coming off a loss in the American Conference championship game, there was a lot of disappointment in that locker room. When we brought everybody back and had a chance to get all these guys together and talk about the goal and what's still in front of this football team, we realized they're excited to play."

The Mean Green are motivated to end a 7-game bowl losing streak with their last bowl win coming in 2013.  QB Drew Mestemaker led the nation with 4,129 yards and 31 TD, and RB Caleb Hawkins is a monster with 1,226 rushing yards and 23 TD, plus 345 receiving yards and another 3 scores.  They lead a Mean Green offense that ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and 1st in total offense at 504.3 yards per game.

Given all the guys San Diego State will be missing on offense, I give the Aztecs no chance of keeping up with the Mean Green.  QB Jayden Denegal had surgery at the end of the season and is out.  That leaves Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. at QB, and he has only attempts 9 passes all season.  Leading receiver Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) is out, as is fellow WR Jacob Bostick.

The Aztecs to have a great defense, but they are likely going to be without CB Chris Johnson (48 tackles, 9 PD), LB Owen Chambliss (105 tackles, 4 sacks) and EDGE Trey White (43 tackles, 7 sacks).  Those are their three best defenders.  They are also without the architect of that defense in coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for the same job at Nebraska.  Rumors are Chambliss and White will both follow him to Nebraska, and Johnson is likely to sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

San Diego State ranks 106th in total offense at 341.8 yards per game this season.  This offense has been really poor down the stretch once injuries hit them.  The Aztecs have averaged just 16.3 points per game in their last four games and haven't topped 25 points in any of their last six games.  I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Mean Green, who are going to score.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* UConn/Army Fenway Bowl No-Brainer on Army -6.5

For starters, Service Academies like Army are 18-3 SU & 18-3 ATS in their last 21 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Army in the Fenway Bowl today.

UConn lost head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State.  Gone with him are so many key players.  They will be down four starting offensive linemen and QB Joe Fagnano, who was one of the best QB's in the country.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,441 yards with a 28-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Huskies will be down to a 4th stringer at QB.

Army will run wild in the triple-option against this terrible UConn defense, which allows 185.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Huskies rank 114th against the run.  Army has a very good defense that ranks 45th in scoring at 22.1 points per game and 50th in total defense at 349.9 yards per game.  They are finally fully healthy on defense with the return of CB Justin Weaver and their top two interior defensive linemen.

I also like the fact that Army sits at 6-6 on the season.  There's a big difference between 7-6 and 6-7 as teams always want to finish with a winning record over a losing record.  It's not like they need the extra motivation, but they will easily be the more motivated team today, which is everything in bowl season.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* FIU/UTSA First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 59.5

Both teams are decimated by opt outs and injuries on defense.  Both teams have almost all hands on deck on offense.  This First Responder Bowl figures to be a shootout due to all the players that won't be playing on defense.  The forecast also favors a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.

FIU wil be without their entire secondary basically.  CB Brian Blades (26 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT), CB Mister Clark (59 tackles, 13 PD, 3 INT), CB Victor Evans (42 tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT), FS Jessiah McGrew (67 tackles, 4 INT) are four starters who will all be out.  The Panthers should have all hands on deck on offense including both QB's and RB Owens (1,298 yards, 11 TD).

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said his defense will be without at least 6 or 7 starters.  But the offense is in much better shape led by QB Owen McCown, who is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,695 yards and a 27-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

FIU is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 86 combined points with Middle Tennessee, 61 with Liberty and 72 with Sam Houston State.  UTSA is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 82 combined points with ECU, 78 with USF, 74 with Tulane, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Rice.  This total is too short given all the opt outs defensively plus how these teams trended down the stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week.  They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat.  They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error.  They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury.  It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that.  The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton.  They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line.  Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards.  The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well.  Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week.  The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks.  I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense.  This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game.  The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.  

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0.  The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible.  With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games.  The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance.  Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five.  They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week.  While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary.  They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold.  They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today.  I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.  Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries.  I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate.  He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D.  It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions.  These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings.  This total of 43 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve No-Brainer on Hawaii ML -110

For starters, Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Rainbow Warriors have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They will have no problem getting up for this standalone game on Christmas Eve to beat a Power 4 opponent in Cal.

These teams have two common opponents in Stanford and San Diego State.  Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and San Diego State 38-6, while Cal lost to San Diego State 34-0 and lost to Stanford 31-10.  Those results against common opponents show that the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the better team.

Hawaii has blowout home wins over Utah State by 18, San Diego State by 32 and Wyoming by 20 in its last three home games.  The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game and outgaining them by 103 yards per game at home this season.

While Hawaii has pretty much all hands on deck with the exception of WR Jackson Davis to the transfer portal, Cal is in limbo with head coach Justin Wilcox fired and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will take over next season.

Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  TE Mason Mini (35 receptions, 387 yards, 4 TD) and WR Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, 2 TD) are injured.  The Golden Bears cannot run the ball averaging just 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry this season.  That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sagapolutele to make plays.

I'll gladly back the team in the better mindset knowing head coach Timmy Chang and QB Micah Alejado will return next season to lead this squad.  Alejado was one of the best freshman QB's in the country this season, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He should have his way with this Cal defense.  Bet Hawaii on the money line Wednesday.

15* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

The biggest reason I'm on the OVER in this game is due to Cal's change of philosophy since interim head coach Nick Rolovich took over.  The former Hawaii head coach is the offensive coordinator of the Golden Bears.  He has been going more up-tempo and pass-happy since taking over.

We really saw that play out in the regular season finale with the Golden Bears pulling the 38-35 upset of SMU for 73 combined points.  The Golden Bears ran 77 plays and put up 450 total yards on a solid SMU defense.  The threw 40 times against SMU and 50 times against Stanford the game prior.

I also like the OVER because neither team can run the football, so this game will be played through the air.  Cal averages 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Hawaii averages 104.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Both coaches know they are almost wasting downs trying to run the football at this point.

The good news is both offenses can rely on reliable QB's to move the ball through the air.  Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele is completing 63.5% of his passes for 3,109 yards with a 17-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season for Cal.  The native of Hawaii will be looking to show out in front of all his fans back at home.  He's actually good friends with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado, who is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Both are allowing more yards per play than their opponents average on offense.  Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  Hawaii has two key injuries on defense in LB Jamih Otis (59 tackles) and CB Virdel Edwards (26 tackles, 5 PD).  

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses in this fast-paced shootout on Christmas Eve where both QB's put on a show for their home fans.  Cal and its opponents have combined for at least 52 points in six of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky/Southern Miss OVER 57.5

Two up-tempo teams who are much better on offense than they are on defense square off in the New Orleans Bowl Tuesday night.  This bowl game will be played indoors on the fast track at the Superdome and it will be an absolute shootout.

Southern Miss ranks 11th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  The Eagles lose head coach Charlie Huff to Memphis, but offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will coach the bowl game and has been hired as their head coach next season.  The Eagles had almost no opt-outs and the only two players that could miss are both on defense in S Corey Myrick (82 tackles) and CB Josh Moten (57 tackles, 5 INT).

This Southern Miss defense has been getting absolutely shredded down the stretch.  The Eagles allowed 28 points and 428 total yards to one of the worst offenses in the country in Troy in their regular season finale.  They allowed 42 points and 449 total yards to a poor South Alabama team the game prior.  And they allowed 41 points and 449 yards to Texas State.

Senior QB Braylon Braxton was banged up down the stretch, so getting this extra time off to recover has been huge.  Braxton is completing 65.2% of his passes for 2,795 yards with a 23-to-7 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He leads a Southern Miss offense that is averaging 29.8 points per game on the season.

"He looks better now than he has looked in a very long time," Anderson said of Braxton. "I'm very encouraged that we can open things back up. What makes Braylon so hard to defend is his ability to create. We had to be very, very vanilla with what we were doing. We weren't as effective as we needed to be. I expect him to be much more like himself (against the Hilltoppers)."

Western Kentucky ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Hilltoppers are scoring 29.8 points per game and averaging 405.4 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  I don't think there's a drop off from either QB as Maverick McIvor (67.3% completions) and Rodney Tisdale (67.7% completions) both played well.  McIvor is healthy enough to play for the bowl game, and the Hilltoppers will have the element of surprise and may even play both.

This WKU defense is atrocious.  In their regular season finale with a trip to the C-USA title game at stake, they lost a 37-34 shootout to Jacksonville State for 71 combined points where they allowed a whopping 515 total yards to the Gamecocks.  They also allowed 539 total yards to a very bad Middle Tennessee team the conference game prior in a 42-26 shootout for 68 combined points.  This total of 57.5 is too short as both offenses will have their way with both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the NFL at the same time.  With this game being played indoors in perfect conditions in the dome in Indianapolis Monday night, look for a shootout to break out between the 49ers and Colts.

The 49ers are 4-0 since Brock Purdy returned from a toe injury.  They have averaged 31.0 points per game in those four games.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have plenty of weapons for Purdy to get the ball to.

The 49ers should hang another big number on this banged up Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are without their top two corners in Garnder and Ward, so expect Kyle Shanahan to go with a pass-heavy approach to take advantage of their biggest weakness.  That will also favor the OVER.

Philip Rivers came off the coach and nearly upset the Seahawks on the road in wet, windy conditions last week.  Now with a full week of practice, I expect even better things from Rivers and this passing offense this week.  The 49ers are fine letting teams throw the ball as they have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL due to all they are missing.

In fact, the 49ers rank 21st allowing 5.7 yards per play and 30th allowing 68.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Colts are pretty healthy on offense right now and have ample weapons for Rivers to be successful with Pittman, Pierce, Downs and Warren all healthy.  Of course, a big game from RB Jonathan Taylor will help ease the pressure.  

Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the game and has gotten the most out of his offenses with little talent at QB his entire time here.  Kyle Shanahan is also an offensive-minded head coach, and he has gotten the most out of Purdy and Mac Jones this season.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses tonight in a shootout.  

The 49ers are 7-3-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 47 or more combined points in seven of those 11 games.  The Colts and their opponents have combined for at least 46 points in 10 of their last 13 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Cardinals OVER 45.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver are expected to return this week to give him even more weapons.

The Falcons are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 46 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The lone exception was when the Saints got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed two more FG's.  Kirk Cousins is proving he still has what it takes, leading the 29-28 comeback in Tampa Bay last week with 476 total yards including 365 passing.

What was amazing was Cousins has been playing without Drake London, who is expected to return this week to make this Atlanta offense that much more potent.  Cousins, Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts should combine to have a monster game against this Arizona defense this week.

It's not like Atlanta is shutting down teams, either, so the Cardinals will get their points.  The Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games, including 27 or more six times during this stretch.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 47. or more combined points in five of those six.  This figures to be a shootout in perfect conditions in Arizona this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons ML -125

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 29-28 road win at Tampa Bay in which they racked up 476 total yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 138 yards.  That was a Thursday game, so this is a mini-bye week for the Falcons and they should come out of it fresh and ready to go.  They also come out of it healthier getting Drake London back in the lineup at WR to give Kirk Cousins a weapon he hasn't had in his time at QB.

The Falcons are poised to hang a big number on Arizona.  The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

It's no wonder the Cardinals are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games.  They have incentive to keep losing to improve on their draft pick, too, so they aren't rushing anyone back from injury.  They are also down multiple starters on the offensive line including LT Paris Johnson and LG Evan Brown this week.  Jacoby Brissett has his work cut out for him behind this makeshift offensive line.

The Falcons have the much better defense in this matchup.  They are at least an average unit on that side of the ball that gets pressure at one of the top rates in the NFL.  They rank 15th in total defense at 323.6 yards per game and 2nd in sacks at 3.4 per game.  There is almost zero home-field advantage for the Cardinals at this point in the season with nothing to play for.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Broncos OVER 46.5

Two thriving offenses square off in perfect scoring conditions for a shootout in Denver Sunday afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  I expect both offenses to continue thriving in this all-important game that could determine the top seed in the AFC.

Trevor Lawrence is playing at another level since getting a reliable #1 receiver in Jakobi Myers.  The Jaguars have now scored at least 25 points in seven consecutive games.  They just hung 48 on the Jets last week behind 6 total TD from Lawrence, which followed up 36 points against the Colts the previous week.  He and Liam Coen are in sync and hitting on all cylinders right now.

Bo Nix has shown he can take his game to the next level when he needs to.  He has one of the best games of his career last week in a 34-26 win over the Packers.  Nix threw for 302 yards and 4 TD against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  He will certainly thrive against this overrated Jacksonville defense that has played a bunch of weak offenses in recent weeks.

In fact, I think both defenses are overrated due to a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And we've seen some real shootouts in Denver with 65 combined points with the Giants, 68 with the Cowboys and 60 with the Packers in recent weeks.  The Jaguars have certainly tranded OVER on the road combining for 59 points with the Raiders, 65 with the Texans and 51 with the Cardinals in recent weeks.  This total of 46.5 is too short giving how well both offenses are playing.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints believe they have their QB of the future in Tyler Shough.  He is rapidly climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds with his great play here down the stretch.  And now Shough is primed for his best game yet against what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Jets.

The Jets know they don't have their QB of the future on their roster and have incentive to tank.  And with some moves they've made to sit numerous starters out, they are clearly trying to lose games right now.  It has shown by their play on the field in recent weeks, and this is more of a fade of the Jets than anything.

The Jets' 34-10 home loss to Miami two weeks ago looks really bad now when you consider Miami came back the next week and was blown out by Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Jets made Trevor Lawrence look like the best QB in the NFL as he accounted for 6 total touchdowns in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.

Giving up 34 points to that weak Miami offense and then 48 to Jacksonville shows just how poorly this defense is playing.  They have gotten much worse since trading away their two best defenders in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and it's really starting to show now that they are injured.  The Jets have eight defenders on IR including three starters in FS Adams, CB Brownlee and CB Thomas.  They have one of the worst CB rooms in the NFL.  They are also without starting LB Mauigoa and backup DE Watts this week.

I haven't even gotten to the offense, which is starting rookie Brady Cook.  If that's not a sign they are tanking I don't know what is because both Fields and Taylor are healthy enough to start.  Cook has been a disaster, completing 57.1% of his passes, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He doesn't have much help with WR Garrett Wilson out for the year and TE Mason Taylor out again this week.  This current version of the Jets might be the worst team in the NFL if it's not the Raiders.

The Saints have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Miami as 5-point dogs, upset the Bucs 24-20 as 7.5-point road dogs and upset the Panthers 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Panthers were coming off a bye week, too.  

While I like Shough and his dual-threat ability, it's this Saints defense that is grossly underrated.  The Saints have allowed just 17.8 points per game in their last five games.  They are fully healthy on defense right now too.  I expect the defense to shut down Cook, and Shough to make enough plays with his arm and his legs to lead New Orleans to a win by a TD or more.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Vikings/Giants OVER 44

The Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 44 or more combined points in all nine games, and 47 or more in eight of them.  This total of 44 is too short for a game involving the Giants.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

But Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston have kept the offense afloat scoring 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  They put up 382 total yards in a 29-21 loss to the Commanders last week.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense with the exception of the guys they lost early in the season.

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's and led the Vikings to 31 points against Washington in his return two weeks ago, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been a lockdown defense.  The Vikings have allowed 23 or more points in seven of their last nine games.  They just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys last week.  And now injuries are a major concern as they will be without both LB Jonathan Greenard (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and DE Javon Hargrave (45 tackles, 3 sacks) this week after both got hurt against Dallas.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's in a 31-0 win over Washington, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

The Giants have incentive to lose to get a better draft pick and they are playing like it.  The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with an 18-point loss in New England and an 8-point home loss to Washington in their last two games since Jaxson Dart returned from injury.  The problem isn't Dart and the offense, though, it's this pitiful defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

The best unit on the field should be this Minnesota defense, and I would give Minnesota's offense the advantage as well considering all the weapons McCarthy has to work with.  The Vikings should have no problem winning this game by a FG or more to get the cover.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* Bucs/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Evans, McMillan, Egbuka, Godwin, Otton and Irving all playing in this game.  They just hung 28 points on the Falcons last week with most of these guys available, but now they will have everyone available this week.

The problem for the Bucs has been defense, where they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game during their 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch in their last six games.  They allowed 44 points to the Bills, 34 to the Rams, and most shockingly 29 points and 476 total yards to the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last week in their 29-28 defeat.  They do get some guys back from injury this week, but this is a bad, banged up defense.

The Panthers have some injuries of their own on defense that the Bucs can take advantage of.  They will be without DE Tershawn Wharton (36 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Trevin Wallace (60 tacklers, 2 sacks) this week.  This is a below-average Panthers defense as it is and missing two key starters along the front seven won't help matters.

I think Bryce Young and the Panthers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  They are fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of one offensive lineman.  Young has some great weapons in Dowdle and Hubbard at RB, plus McMillan, Legette and Coker at WR.  He has proven he can keep up with teams in shootouts just like he did in his last home game, a 31-28 win over the Rams for 59 combined points.  This game will play out similarly.

The Bucs and Panthers combined for 62 and 49 points in their two meetings last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both offenses will have their way with these suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs were not only eliminated from the playoffs last year, but they also lost their MVP QB in Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending injury.  They have since lost several other players to injury to will sit out this week, a clear sign the Chiefs don't mind tanking the rest of the way to get the best draft pick possible.

Offensively, the Chiefs will be without Mahomes, WR Rice, WR THornton, LT Simmons, RT Moore, and backup LT Morris.  Gardner Minshew has almost no shot behind this offensive line and lack of weapons this week.  Defensively, the Chiefs will be without DT Nnadi, CB McDuffie and LB Chenal who all suffered injuries last week.  What a mess.

The Titans have no incentive to lose because they have their QB of the future in Cam Ward and they are doing everything possible to get him going in the 2H of the season.  He is really playing well scoring 24 points on the Seahawks, 31 on the Browns and 24 on the 49ers in three of his last four games.  The Titans are very healthy on offense, too.

The Titans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by DE Jeffery Simmons and NT T'Vondre Sweat.  They will have their way with this makeshift KC offensive line, which will help alleviate some of the pressure on their secondary, which is their most banged up unit.  No matter how you slice it, the Titans are better than the Chiefs in their current state, and they should not be catching points at home as a result.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Chargers/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 49.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall behind one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses.  They have gone for 49 or more combined points in nine of their last 11 games, including 57 or more combined points in eight of those contests.  Dallas home games are averaging 61.6 combined points per game this season.

The Cowboys rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.1 points per game and 1st in total offense at 396.9 yards per game.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game and 29th in total defense at 374.9 yards per game.  They are without CB Bland, and both CB Carson and DT Quinnen Williams are questionable.  Williams had to leave the game last week when they allowed 34 points to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

This total has been set too low due to the Chargers playing a string of bad offenses but good defenses in the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs in their last three games.  They are bound to get in a shootout with the Cowboys as Justin Herbert lights up their defense.  He has all of his top weapons healthy for this one and their offensive line will hold up against a Dallas defense that lacks a consistent pass rush.

The Chargers haven't played many elite offenses like the Cowboys this season, so their defensive numbers are a little skewed.  Against some of the better offenses they faced they allowed 38 points to the Colts and 35 to the Jaguars.  If one team gets into the 30's in this game it's going OVER, and it's very likely one team gets into the 30's if not both.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +3

Note: I released the Bears +3 Sunday night as soon as the lines came out.  The Packers had a ton of injuries against the Broncos that made this a 25* play at +3.  As of this writing on Friday, the Bears have flipped to the favorites.  I would take the Bears on the Money Line if you purchased this play later in the week.  It's still a 25* play -140 or better.

Few teams are playing as well as the Bears right now since they got healthy on defense.  It was a bit of a fluky start as they were living off turnovers, but that is no longer the case as the Bears are real contenders in their current state.  They proved that by going into Green Bay and taking the Packers to the wire two weeks ago.

The Bears were driving deep in Green Bay territory before throwing an interception in the end zone on 4th and 1 in the final seconds.  They would have gone for 2 and the win had they scored.  That was a very evenly-matched game in Green Bay, but the Bears will have the advantage at home this time around.  They are 5-1 SU at home this season and will have one of the most hostile crowds in franchise history with the NFC North title at stake in this game.

I became a Bears believer when they went into Philadelphia and manhandled the Eagles in a 24-15 victory as 7-point road dogs three weeks ago.  The Bears outgained the Eagles 425 to 317, or by 108 total yards.  What really stood out was they rushed for 281 yards on that Philadelphia defense, which is one of the best in the league.  The Bears had no letdown following that loss to the Packers two weeks ago, handling their business in a dominant 31-3 home win over the Browns last week.  They held the Browns to 192 total yards in the win.

The Bears are fully healthy on defense for the first time all season.  The offense will be without Odunze and Burden, but they were without Odunze last week too.  They have plenty of depth at receiver with Moore, Zaccheaus and Duverney, plus TE's Loveland and Kmet at real weapons.  But what I'm really banking on is the Bears to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and to run wild on the Packers in this one.

The Bears rank 2nd in rushing offense at 152.2 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per carry.  The two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai has been unstoppable, and Caleb Williams has utilized his legs well all season.  The Packers have been good against the run up to this point, but injuries on defense in recent weeks make them very vulnerable moving forward.

It's not just that they lost their best defensive player in Micah Parsons, either.  SS Evan Williams (85 tackles, 3 INT) left the 34-26 loss at Denver last week and hasn't practiced yet this week.  DE Knglsey Enagbare is questionable.  The Packers haven't really recovered since losing their best interior defender in DT Devonte Wyatt.  DE Collin Oliver has been ruled out.  What was a strength of the Packers all season has now turned into a weakness with one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.

The Packers suffered two key injuries in the loss to Denver on offense, too.  WR Christian Watson was hospitalized with a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play.  RT Zach Tom suffered another injury and is almost certainly out.  RB Josh Jacobs has yet to practice this week and is questionable.  Jacobs, Toms and Williams are more doubtful than questionable after missing practice all week.  

Teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games, including 0-6 ATS this season.  The travel after playing in the altitude on a short week is not a good spot to be in for Green Bay this week.  The Packers are falling apart at the seams heading into their biggest game of the season.  I think the Bears are finally positioned to dethrone them with their biggest win in years this weekend.  Bet the Bears Saturday.

20* James Madison/Oregon CFB Playoff No-Brainer on James Madison +21.5

There's a 60% chance of rain in Eugene Saturday night.  That will help keep this game on the ground and keep scoring suppressed.  The total has already been bet down to 47 as of this writing, and in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game, that benefits the underdog especially one catching 21.5 points with that small of a total.

Oregon has no motivation to get margin here.  It's just win and get out.  Oregon needs to be able to run the football to be effective offensively, and few defenses in the country are equipped to stop the run quite like this James Madison crew.  Oregon is 12th in the country at 218.4 rushing yards per game.

The reason James Madison is here is because of its defense.  The Dukes rank 8th in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 247.6 yards per game and 4th at 4.1 yards per play.  But particularly helpful for this matchup is the Dukes ranking 2nd in the country against the run at 76.2 yards per game and 3rd at 2.5 yards per carry.  They are legitimately one of the best run defenses in the country and can stack up against any of the best Power 5 teams against the run.

I also like that James Madison is a methodical, run-heavy offense that will try and shorten this game simply by taking every second off the clock they can before they snap the football.  It's their best path to being competitive and they know it.  The Dukes rank 122nd in tempo snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  That is really slow when you consider they were going for style points the entire 2H of the season on offense.  

Oregon is in no hurry either, ranking 103rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  I can see them sitting on the ball in the 2H.  Getting 21.5 points here in what will be a defensive battle is tremendous value.  James Madison held Louisville to just 264 total yards on the road back when Louisville was fully healthy early in the season.  They can hang with Oregon and will be out to prove it.  They aren't just happy to be here, especially with all of the talk about how the Group of 5 teams don't belong leading up to this game.  

Oregon's offensive and defensive coordinators both took head coaching jobs elsewhere.  Both will remain with the team for the playoff run, but you know their entire focus is not with the team as they are trying to recruit players for their new schools.  It has to at least be a little bit of a distraction for both coordinators at the very least.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* Eagles/Commanders NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much credit for their 31-0 win over the hapless Raiders last week.  They beat a Raiders team with no offense that was playing a backup QB in Kenny Pickett.  It's a Eagles team that was 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games without outright losses as favorites to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers.  They were outgained by 108 yards by the Bears and by 134 yards by the Cowboys, too.

The Eagles certainly cannot be 7-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week when you consider they are still without two of their best players on RT Lane Johnson and DE Jalen Carter.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 13-26 SU when he doesn't.

Marcus Mariota has been a better QB than Jaden Daniels this season.  Mariota is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.7 per attempt for Daniels.  He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to 4.8 per carry for Daniels.  Time and time again the Commanders are getting disrespected because Mariota is their QB rather than Daniels.  This creates line value we can exploit.

Mariota has been awesome in his last two starts, a 27-26 (OT) home loss to the Broncos, who many believe are the best team in the AFC.  And last week he led the Commanders to a 29-21 road win over the New York Giants.  The team plays hard for him and loves him, and the offense is fully healthy with the exception of TE Ertz and LT Tunsil.  WR McClaurin, WR Samuel and RB Rodriquez are all good to go this week.

The Commanders are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on defense.  They held the Giants to 21 points last week.  DE Drake Jackson returns to bolster a defensive line that could use the help.  And it's not like the Eagles have been explosive on offense at any point this season.  This feels like it's going to be low-scoring, defensive battle so getting 7 points with the home underdog is tremendous value.

That's especially the case when you consider the Commanders always seem to play the Eagles tough.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by one score.  The lone exception was in the playoffs last season when the Eagles blitzed the Commanders on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  So this is Washington's first shot at revenge, and they will put their best foot forward.  The Eagles know in the back of their minds they only need to win one of their final three games to clinch the NFC East, so they aren't playing with much urgency right now.  Philadelphia hasn't won a road game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

25* CFB Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Miami/Texas A&M UNDER 51.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 51.5 ticket between Miami and Texas A&M Saturday in College Station.  There will be 15-25 MPH sustained winds for this one with gusts even higher.  That will make it very difficult for both passing offenses to be effective, and the passing offenses are the weaknesses of both of these teams anyway if they have one.

Miami has been led all season by one of the most elite, talented defenses in the country, especially along the front seven.  The Hurricanes rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game, 10th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game, 8th at 4.5 yards per play, 7th in rushing defense at 86.8 yards per game and 10th at 2.9 yards per carry allowed.

The only two games Miami lost were due to turnovers by QB Carson Beck.  He threw 2 interceptions in a 26-20 (OT) road loss at SMU.  He threw 4 INT in a 24-21 home loss to Louisville.  You can bet Miami is going to try and be more conservative with him in this game especially given the forecast because they don't want him to lose the game for them knowing they have a championship-caliber defense.

Texas A&M ranks 37th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game, 17th in total defense at 309.8 yards per game and 34th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Aggies are also 36th allowing 127.1 rushing yards per game.  They are elite against the pass at 19th at 182.8 yards per game allowed.  Miami would be smart to try and keep the ball on the ground more against this defense.

Texas A&M is 28th in rushing offense at 192.7 yards per game.  They get RB Le'Veon Moss back from injury as he has been out since Week 7.  They are going to want to utilize him.  It looks like both teams are getting reinforcements on defense for this one.  CB Keionte Scott (44 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), NT David Blay (15 tackles) and CB OJ Frederique (10 tackles, 5 PD) are all expected to return from injury for Miami.  S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams should both be back from injury for the Aggies as well.

Miami and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in nine consecutive games heading into this game, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER.  That includes Miami scoring several times late in games looking for style points and they still didn't top 51 combined points in any of their last nine games.  

Texas A&M and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in four of its last five home games.  The only exception was that wild game against South Carolina where they fell behind 30-3 and had to play hurry-up to come back and win.  That's not going to happen here as this will likely be a tight game throughout played close to the vest with the defenses ruling the day.  It's also a 12:00 EST early start time which I love for UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Alabama/Oklahoma CFB Playoff No-Brainer on Oklahoma +1.5

There's no home-field advantage as strong as the college football playoffs.  I don't think it's being factored into this line enough for how big of an advantage it is going to be for the Oklahoma Sooners in HS Football country for a Friday night home game.  It's simply going to be electric in Norman Friday night.

The Sooners are 6-1 at home this season.  They already beat Alabama 23-21 as 6.5-point road dogs, and now are 1.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  I don't think that 5-point adjustment is enough for flipping home fields, especially when you consider the way the Crimson Tide have struggled here down the stretch.

Alabama was not impressive in any of its final three SEC games dating back to that 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma.  The Crimson Tide did outgain the Sooners heavily due to holding onto the ball for most the game but not doing much with it.  They only outgained the Sooners 4.4 to 4.2 yards per play for the game, which is the more important stat rather than total yards.

Alabama was lucky to beat Auburn 27-20 as 7-point road favorites.  The Crimson Tide were outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 yards.  They were also outgained 5.5 yards per play to 3.8 yards per play by the Tigers, who were with an interim head coach and just playing out the string.

Then last time out Alabama lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  They were held to 209 total yards by the Bulldogs and this game was over by halftime.  It's clear that QB Ty Simpson is playing through injury and just hasn't been very good at all with that injury.  And the Crimson Tide are one of the worst rushing teams in the SEC, so they are giving him no help on the ground.  Simpson went 19-of-35 for 122 yards against Auburn, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.  He went 19-of-39 for 212 yards against Georgia, averaging just 5.4 per attempt.  He got most his yardage in garbage time, too.

It's not going to get any easier for Simpson up against arguably the best defense in the country in Oklahoma here.  The Sooners rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.9 points per game, 7th in total defense at 273.6 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per play.  John Mateer was also playing with an injured hand in the 2H of the season, and getting these last three weeks off have been huge for him to recover.

I think we see the best version of this Oklahoma offense Friday with a healthy Mateer now.  The Sooners coming off a misleading 17-13 home win over LSU in the regular season finale also has them undervalued.  They played not to lose knowing they just needed a win to get into the playoff.  Now that they are in, I expect the entire playbook to be open for Mateer and company.  

Keep in mind Oklahoma outgained LSU 393 to 198, or by 195 total yards, so it was completely misleading.  Mateer threw for 318 yards and 2 TD, but his 3 INT kept LSU in the game.  I like the fact that he had one of his best passing games of the season from a yardage standpoint.  He really just needs to protect the football here and let his defense win the game again, but I know he's capable of making the plays when necessary to get the Sooners the win.

Oklahoma has a huge advantage in special teams over Alabama.  The Sooners have Lou Groza award winner Tate Sandell, who went 7-for-7 on 50-plus yard FG's as part of his 23-of-24 (96%) for the season.  Alabama has one of the worst kickers in the country in Conor Salty, who went 13-of-20 (65%) on FG's this season including a miss on his only attempt over 50.  That's a really poor percentage when you consider he only attempted one long kick all season.  This game could easily come down to the kicking game.

Oklahoma got good injury news with DE R Mason Thomas (9 TFL, 6 sacks) returning for the first time since Week 10.  He's like a first-round draft pick.  Alabama got bad news with DE LT Overton (35 tackles, 4 sacks) ruled out for this game.  That's just another hidden advantage for the Sooners heading into this one.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* Missouri State/Arkansas State Xbox Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

One hidden advantage here to backing the OVER is that the Xbox Bowl will be played indoors at the Ford Center at the Star, which is the practice facility of the Dallas Cowboys.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout, and both teams have been trending OVER to close out the season.

Missouri State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games.  The Bears beat UTEP 38-24 for 62 combined points.  They racked up 436 total yards in victory.  They lost 41-34 to Kennesaw State for 75 combined points.  They had 535 total yards while allowing 500 yards to the Owls.  And last time out they lost 42-30 to Louisiana Tech for 72 combined points.  They had 416 yards but allowed 475 to the Bulldogs, including 388 rushing.

Arkansas State is 2-0 OVER in its last two games.  The Red Wolves lost 34-30 to Louisiana for 64 combined points.  They had 394 total yards in defeat.  They won 30-29 at App State to become bowl eligible in their finale for 59 combined points.  They had 448 total yards while allowing 453 yards to the Mountaineers.

I love that both teams have veteran QB's who are going to ball out in this bowl game.  Missouri State senior QB Jacob Clark is one of the more underrated QB's in the country.  He has completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,895 yards with a 24-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  Arkansas State junior QB Jaylen Raynor has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,076 yards with a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 439 yards and seven scores.

Both offenses are ahead of both defenses.  Arkansas State ranks 108th in total defense at 416 yards per game and 116th at 6.1 yards per play.  Missouri State ranks 88th in scoring defense at 28.3 points per game, 72nd in total defense at 384.8 yards per game and 97th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears are 112th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, while the Red Wolves are 103rd at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between the Rams and Seahawks Thursday night.  There will be rain throughout, but the bigger factor is 17 MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30's.  It's going to be hard for both offenses to throw the football, so this game will be played with a lot of heavy formations and mostly on the ground with a short passing game.

Seattle ranks 2nd in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 283.4 yards per game and 1st at 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 2nd allowing just 3.8 yards per rush.  In their first meeting this season, the Seahawks held the Rams to 21 points, 249 total yards and 5.0 yards per play.  Nobody has held the Rams down like they did this season, and that was in perfect weather in Los Angeles.

The Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game.  That's why many feel they are the best team in the NFL this season because they have no weaknesses.  But there is a chink in their armor now with WR Devante Adams out for this game with a hamstring injury.  He has 60 receptions for 789 yards and a league-high 14 TD this season.  The Rams are much easier to defend without having to worry about Adams.  Puka Nacua also had to leave the game last week with an injury late but came back in, and he may still be feeling the affects especially on this short week.

It's late in the season and Sam Darnold is regressing again.  The Seahawks managed just 18 points last week against the Colts in similar conditions.  They kicked six field goals and didn't reach the end zone.  In their previous home game, they beat the Vikings 26-0 but that was all defense.  They managed just 219 total yards against the Vikings that week.  

Darnold threw 4 interceptions and led the Seahawks to just 19 points in that first meeting with the Rams.  It saw just 40 combined points, again in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these division games because of it.  The conditions will be much worse for the rematch, and both defenses are well ahead of both offenses right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Louisiana/Delaware Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61.5

Delaware is a dead nuts OVER team with a very good, pass-happy offense that plays fast and a terrible defense.  The Blue Hens are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points four times.  This total of 61.5 is too short for a bowl game involving Delaware.

Louisiana is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Rajin Cajun's have a very good rushing attack on offense that will give Delaware problems.  It's a Delaware defense that recently allowed 255 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, 282 to Liberty and 263 to Wake Forest.  The Blue Hens rank 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Louisiana ranks 108th in the country allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Most concerning is the fact that the Rajin' Cajuns just allowed 516 total yards to Louisiana-Monroe in their season finale.  ULM is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranking 120th in total offense and 130th in scoring this season.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Delaware offense is going to do to this suspect Louisiana defense tonight.  The Blue Hens rank 26th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  QB Nick Minicuccci has thrown for 3,495 yards and 22 TD while also rushing for 10 scores.  They are coming off a 61-31 home win over UTEP for 92 combined points to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.

Louisiana has scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games to close out the season during its current 4-game winning streak to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  So both teams are riding their offense to the finish, and both teams will ride their offense in this bowl game.  Both teams should get into the 30's in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Wednesday.

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 6-7 and back in the conversation of the playoffs at least.  There is something about getting back to .500 on the season that is very motivating, and I think they will be 'all in' tonight to get back to that mark.

The Dolphins have been very impressive beating the Falcons by 24 on the the road, the Bills by 17 at home and the Jets by 24 on the road during this stretch.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, and their defense is absolutely balling out holding five of their last six opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The offense is lead by a potent rushing attack behind Achane and and Wright.  The Dolphins have rushed for 192.3 yards per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  That makes this a terrible matchup for the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose biggest weakness defensively is stopping the run.

Indeed, the Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens in their last two games coming in.  Now they got the bad news that TJ Watt suffered a punctured lung and is out this week.  Few defensive players are worth a point to the spread, and TJ Watt is one of them.  They are also without CB James Pierre and LT Andrus Peat plus his backup, and RB Jaylen Warren and DE Derrick Harmon is questionable.

I question Pittsburgh's motivation this week.  They are coming off a 27-22 win over their biggest rivals in the Ravens which sets them up to control the tiebreaker in the division.  They can not afford two more losses as long as they beat the Ravens at home in Week 18 and still win the division no matter what.  They aren't playing with the same kind of urgency as the Dolphins are tonight.

I also think this Pittsburgh offense is dreadful, and that's the reason the Steelers shouldn't be laying more than a FG at home tonight.  The Steelers rank 27th in total offense at 284.5 yards per game.  Their passing game is limited to dink and dunk, and their rushing game ranks 29th at 89.2 yards per game.  Mike Tomlin has worked miracle to get this team to 7-6, but they are no better than the 6-7 Dolphins and it will show on the field tonight.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Vikings/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER in all games this season with 44 or more combined points in all 13 games, and 49 or more in nine of them.  This total of 47.5 is very low for a game involving the Cowboys, especially at home indoors in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas' six home games this season have averaged 61.9 combined points.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.9 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game, 29th at 378.6 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense this week with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson good to go with their only starter out being LT Tyler Guyton, who they have been without for several weeks anyway.

The Vikings won the NFC North last season and as a result have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.  It has been a brutal schedule of opposing defenses that stands out more than anything.  After four straight losses to the Ravens, Bears, Packers and Seahawks, the Vikings finally got a reprieve last week.

The Vikings hung 31 points on the Commanders in JJ McCarthy's best game of his career with 3 TD passes and no picks.  I fully expect McCarthy and company to build off that performance and have another big game against this terrible Cowboys defense that just allowed 44 points to the Lions last week.  The Vikings are fully healthy on offense right now and McCarthy has some of the best weapons in the NFL, so he will be successful.

No question Minnesota has a good defense, but that defense has also benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses and playing in some poor weather in recent weeks.  Keep in mind the Vikings have recently allowed 27 points to the Ravens, 26 to the Seahawks, 24 to the Lions, 37 to the Chargers and 28 to the Eagles within their last eight games alone.  The Cowboys will get what they want against the Vikings, who love to play man-to-man coverage, and Dak Prescott kills that coverage.  The Cowboys will get a bunch of explosive plays in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and highly motivated for a victory that would put them in sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South surpassing the Tampa Bay Bucs with a win.  It's also a division game, so they need to secure the division record tiebreaker over the Bucs if they end up tied.

That's why I'm not concerned about them having a letdown following their 31-28 win as 10-point home underdogs over the Los Angeles Rams in the game going into their bye week.  The Panthers didn't have C Cade Mays, CB Jaycee Horn (5 INT) or LB Christian Rozeboom (91 tackles) in that win over the Rams.  All three are expected back this week, and now the Panthers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye and arguably THE healthiest.

The spot isn't nearly as good for the Saints.  They are coming off an upset 24-20 win at Tampa Bay as 7.5-point dogs last week.  That's a Bucs team that has now lost five of their last six games with their lone win coming by 3 over the Cardinals at home.  It's a Bucs team that was also missing a lot of key players due to injury and more got hurt throughout the game.  It's a Bucs team that went 2-of-7 on 4th down to pretty much hand over great field position to the Saints time and time again as well.

The Panthers also want revenge from a 17-7 home loss to the Saints on November 9th just a month ago.  That was a clear letdown spot coming off a 16-13 road win over the Packers as 13-point dogs the week prior.  They won't make that same mistake again here, not with what's at stake.  I fully expect them to put their best foot forward for this one.  It will be enough to win by a FG or more and cover this short number on the road.

The Saints have only won three games this season.  In their previous two wins, they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS following them losing by 6 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Patriots and by 14 as 1.5-point home favorites against the Falcons.  The Saints are 0-5 SU in their last five games against a team on extended rest, including 0-3 this season losing by 13.3 points per game.  New Orleans is 4-17 SU & 5-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2020, including 0-7 SU in their last seven games as a home dog.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Lions/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 52.5

The Rams rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.

The Lions are nearly fully healthy on offense right now and showed what they were capable of last week when that's the case by hanging 44 points on the Cowboys.  As long as Jared Goff is indoors, he leads an elite Detroit offense that ranks 1st in scoring offense at 30.3 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play.

The Rams have a very good defense and will make life a little tougher on Goff than normal, but I still think the Lions will get to at least 24 points in this one.  What I am really counting on is the Rams scoring 30-plus with ease.  While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  

The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions.  It will be similar to last week when the Rams put up 45 points and 530 total yards on the Cardinals.  

The Lions are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in five of those six games, and 55 or more combined points in four of them.  The Rams have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games going for 59 combined points with Carolina and 62 with Arizona.  The books can't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.  

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with their sights set on earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  

Their three losses were all fluky as they led the Eagles by 19 in the 4th quarter and outgained them by 70 yards on the road.  They fumbled at the goal line going in for the game-winning score against the 49ers and outgained them by 49 yards.  And they were -3 in turnovers in a 3-point loss at Carolina.

The Rams have no weaknesses.  They are 3rd in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  The are outscoring teams by 11.7 points per game and outgaining them by 1.1 yards per play on the season.

The Rams are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.  Their defense is fully healthy with the exception of CB Quentin Lake.  CB Darious Williams returns to the lineup this week to help make up for it.

While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions, and I don't think Goff and company are capable of matching them score for score.  

No question Stafford, McVay and company have had this game circled.  They lost 26-20 (OT) at Detroit last year and 24-23 at Detroit in the playoffs two seasons ago.  They finally get the Lions at home this time around for the first time since 2021, which resulted in a 28-19 home win for the Rams in the first meeting between Stafford and Goff since the trade.  The Rams are going to want this one more to wreck Detroit's season.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored by double-digits over the Raiders at home.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 309.4 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 341.6 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 32.2 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed in their last home game two weeks ago allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-26 SU when he doesn't.  It's also a terrible spot for the Eagles off a short week and off an OT loss in Los Angeles on Monday.  The fans are fed up with them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, and don't be surprised to hear the boo birds all game, which would make this almost a negative home-field advantage for the Eagles.

I think the Raiders will get a spark by starting Kenny Pickett instead of Geno Smith this week.  Pickett is a former Eagle that will relish this opportunity to go against his former team.  Smith is washed up and having the worst season of his career, so it can only be an upgrade.  I was impressed with Pickett in leading the Raiders to 10 points in the 4th quarter once he took over for an injured Smith.  He went 8-of-11 passing for 97 yards and a TD in that 4th quarter against Denver's elite defense.  His mobility makes him much tougher to defend than the statue Smith.

The Raiders have an underrated defense that ranks 16th in total defense at 325.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 5th in the NFL allowing just 3.9 yards per rush, so their biggest strength is stopping the run.  The Eagles rank 22nd at 4.1 yards per carry on offense.  That's big here because it is supposed to be very windy in Philadelphia today so this game will largely be played on the ground.  The Raiders will be able to hold up, and with scoring suppressed due to the weather conditions, getting 13 points here with Las Vegas is too much.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Browns/Bears OVER 39.5

This total of 39.5 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in 10 of their 13 games this season.  They have gone for 39 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 369.7 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles two weeks ago, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They deserved 28 points against the Packers last week but were intercepted in the end zone on the final play.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 357.3 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Shedeur Sanders is giving this Cleveland offense some life with more of a downfield passing game to stretch opposing defenses.  Sanders threw for 364 yards and 3 TD in a 31-29 loss to the Titans last week.  He did everything in his power to win the game, but the defense let him down.  They allowed 184 rushing yards to the Titans, and the Bears are one of the best running teams in the NFL and will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.

The Browns have notoriously been much worse defensively on the road than they have been at home, too.  That has been the case again this season as the Browns are allowing 27.8 points per game on the road.  I think Chicago can get to 27 in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  With the poor weather, don't be surprised if there is a defensive or special teams TD in this one as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Commanders/Giants OVER 46

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL especially in the 2H of the season.  The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.  The Commanders rank 28th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th at 382.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.

This Washington defense has now allowed at least 27 points in six of its last seven games overall.  They even allowed 31 points and 3 TD passes to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings stagnant offense last week.  Jaxson Dart and this Giants offense will hang a big number on them today, and they have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games overall so offense hasn't been the issue.  Interim head coach Mike Kafka is the offensive coordinator so they have been all offense and no defense since he took over.

But this Giants defense has been pitiful, allowing 33 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 24 or more in all seven.  Injuries are a problem without LB Thibodeaux and DE Nunez-Roches again today.  Marcus Mariota has actually been better than Jayden Daniels this season averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 per rush compared to 6.7 per pass attempt and 4.8 per rush for Daniels.  He will be without Zach Ertz, but the rest of his offense is healthy as he will have his top three receivers for basically the first time all season in McLaurin, Samuel and Brown.

I like backing OVERS between two teams who are out of playoff contention.  It tends to be a more relaxed game with offense over defense.  The Giants are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Boise State/Washington 2025 Bowl Season Opener on OVER 52

The Boise State Broncos got QB Maddux Madsen back from injury in the MWC Championship Game and it made all the difference for their offense.  Madsen led the Broncos to a 38-21 victory over the UNLV Rebels in cold, rainy weather on the Blue Turf.

Now Madsen leads the Broncos in perfect conditions as SoFi Stadium in Inglewood for the LA Bowl.  He showed no ill-effects of injury from his 4-game absence, throwing for 289 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for a score in the win.  He has now had another week to get even healthier and lead this potent Boise State offense.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. had a big season completing 70% of his passes while averaging 8.6 per attempt with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio.  He also rushed for 596 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country.  He is expected to have leading receiver Boston (755 yards, 10 TD) and leading rusher Jonah Coleman (673 yards, 14 TD) for this game as there have been very few opt-outs on either side.  And most of the players that will be missing are on defense.

The Huskies really showed off against lesser competition they face this season like Boise State.  They put up 38 points on Colorado State, 70 on Cal Davis, 59 on Washington State, 38 on Rutgers, 42 on Illinois, 49 on Purdue and 48 on UCLA.  They are averaging 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play on the season, the latter of which ranks 22nd in the country.

The Huskies will hang a big number on this poor Boise State defense that ranks 116th in the country allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the ground.  When the Huskies have been able to run the football, their offense has been virtually unstoppable.  They'll be able to run the ball on the Broncos, and I trust Madsen and company to do their part in keeping up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Eagles/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Chargers came out of their much-needed bye week with a dominant 31-14 home win over the Raiders as 10-point favorites.  They are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Yes, Justin Herbert will be playing with a hand injury, but it's on his non-throwing hand and we've seen Aaron Rodgers be just fine with basically the same injury.  The offensive line has some injuries, but these backups have had a lot of playing time and are starting to gel now.

While I like this Chargers offense with Herbert and some of the best weapons he's ever had plus RB Omarian Hampton returning from IR this week, it's the Chargers defense that is leading this team.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 275.2 yards per game and are showing what they are capable of when fully healthy on that side of the ball.

The Chargers have been dominant at home this season from a statistical perspective.  They are averaging 371.8 yards per game at home and allowing just 266 yards per game at home, outgaining opponents by 105.8 yards per game.  It's no longer a lackluster home-field advantage like it used to be.  Fans are excited about the direction Jim Harbaugh has this franchise heading.

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored on the road here.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 304.8 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 347.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 42.4 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed last week in allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 home loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-25 SU when he doesn't.

Jalen Hurts is actually just 1-5 ATS in his next game after an upset loss as a home favorite, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite in his next game.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games.  Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher in his career.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  After winning five straight games all by 7 points or more, the Ravens suffered a massive letdown on Thanksgiving Day with a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites.  No question getting Burrow back helped the Bengals, but it was a comedy of errors by the Ravens as they fumbled going into the end zone for a touchdown as part of their 5 turnovers.

It was Jeff Monken's worst play-calling game of the season as the Ravens got too pass-happy against the Bengals.  Now they will get back to running the football against a Pittsburgh defense that has been shockingly bad against the run.  The Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills last week in a 26-7 home loss.

This Pittsburgh offense is even worse with a banged-up Rodgers at QB and no weapons.  The Steelers managed just 166 total yards against the Bills, who also have a bad defense.  Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense at 281.7 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  Compare that to the Ravens, which averaged 317.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play and the Ravens have the much better offense.  Those numbers include all the games missed by Jackson, too.

Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense allowing 365.1 yards per game.  This isn't your classic Mike Tomlin defense, in fact it's probably the worst one he's ever had.  It's an old, banged up defense.  The Steelers will be without DE Derrick Harmon and SS Kyle Dugger, plus they have eight defenders on IR already.  The Ravens should be able to get whatever they want against them.

Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL.  The return to health since the bye week has made all the difference during this 5-1 run.  The offense has scored at least 23 points in five of their last six games and easily should have topped that number against the Bengals if not for the five turnovers.  The defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons had a chance to get back in the NFC South title race last week with a win.  Instead, they lost on a last-second field goal to the lowly Jets to fall to 4-8 on the season and out of contention.  They have suffered gut punch after gut punch with two OT losses and a missed XP in a 1-point loss to the Patriots during their 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS run in their last seven games.

I don't think the Falcons get back up off the mat this week after that last-second loss to the Jets.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.  And the Falcons in their current state have no chance of keeping this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons were already without QB Michael Pennix Jr. and WR Drake London.  They were hopeful to get London back this week, but now that they are out of playoff contention he's not going to go.  They have nine players out or on IR on offense.  The defense is worse with 12 players out or on IR.  They have allowed 26.0 points per game in their last six games.

The Seahawks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is the best mark in the NFL.  They have no weaknesses and one of the best defenses in the NFL.  This healthy defense is showing what it's capable of holding the Rams to 249 total yards and the Vikings to 162 total yards in two of their last three games.  They held the Titans in check for three quarters with a three-touchdown lead before letting go of the rope in the 4th with the game in hand.  They didn't make that mistake last week in a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Their defense wasn't healthy early but it is now and wreaking havoc on teams.  This is a big step down in class for Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense that has been a little disappointing in recent weeks against the Rams, Titans and Vikings, which are three great defenses.  They will get back going here indoors against this bad Atlanta defense that just allowed 27 points to the Jets last week.  This has blowout written all over it given all the factors and I can't believe we are getting Seattle as less than a TD favorite.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Bucs UNDER 42

This will be a rematch from one of the ugliest games of the season in New Orleans in their first meeting on October 26th.  The Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in a game that saw just 487 yards of total offense.  The Bucs only had 212 yards while the Saints had 275 yards.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these divisional matchups as a result.

The Saints are broken on offense.  They rank 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game, 26th in total offense at 296.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  But they have an underrated defense, one that ranks 12th in total defense at 314.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.

This combination of a terrible offense and underrated defense has led to the Saints going 7-0-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 44 or fewer combined points with their opponents in all eight games, and 40 or fewer in six of them.  This total of 42 is pretty high for a game involving the Saints right now.

The Bucs are also broken on offense right now.  Baker Mayfield is playing through injury, and he's doing so without two of his best weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.  His best lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs is banged up and questionable.  The Bucs went UNDER the total in their last two games with 41 combined points with the Rams and 37 with the Cardinals.

Mayfield was injured in a 34-7 loss to the Rams.  The Bucs managed just 203 total yards in that game.  He returned last week and the Bucs managed just 20 points and 279 total yards against the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses in the NFL that was giving up big points and yards to everyone prior to that game.  

The Saints will hold the Bucs in check, too.  And a pretty much fully healthy Bucs defense will make life tough on a Saints offense that is missing RB Alvin Kamara and RT Taliese Fuaga.  Tyler Shough is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and WR Chris Olave is nowhere near 100% even though he is expected to play.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams in this one.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bucs and Saints with 36 or fewer combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The Saints rank dead last (32nd) in red zone TD percentage (38.7%) while the Bucs rank 25th (50%).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Bills OVER 50.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team especially now with Joe Burrow at QB.  In his first game back from injury, Burrow led the Bengals to 32 points against a very good Baltimore defense.  He didn't even have Tee Higgins due to a concussion, and Higgins is back this week.  The Bengals are basically fully healthy on offense now.

But this Cincinnati defense is the reason they are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 31.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 410 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  It was a fluke they only allowed 14 points to the Ravens, who fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback as part of their 5 turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.

The Bills will hang a big number on the Bengals at home, where their offense has shined this season.  The Bills are scoring 32.5 points per game and allowing 26.0 points per game at home this season.  They get both TE Dalton Kincaid and LT Dion Dawkins back from injury this week, who they didn't have in scoring 26 points on the Steelers last week with a ground-heavy approach.

Both teams are great at inside zone runs, and both defenses are terrible at defending inside zone runs.  The reason I don't believe the Bills are a real Super Bowl contender is a leaky defense.  And that defense will be without DE Joey Bosa and LB Terrel Bernard this week.  They are all banged up in the secondary as well, so Burrow should feast through the air and Brown should have a big day on the ground.

The forecast is actually going to favor a shootout even though there will be snow.  There will be no wind, which is the biggest factor.  The snow actually favors the offensive players because they know where they are going, while the defenders have to react and that's where the slips happen.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* North Texas/Tulane AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on North Texas ML -125

North Texas has been undervalued all season.  The Mean Green are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming to South Florida, which I actually believe to be the best team in the AAC but they were done in by close losses.  North Texas is easily the second-best team in the conference, and that will be on display tonight as they take down Tulane and are favored for good reason here on the road.

North Texas has been absolutely dominant with the pedal to the medal in the 2H of the season since that loss to USF to put itself in this position to make the 12-team playoff with a win tonight.  The Mean Green are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games beating UTSA 55-17, Charlotte 54-20, Navy 31-17, UAB 53-24, Rice 56-24 and Temple 52-25.  They have taken no prisoners and will keep their foot on the gas tonight.

Tulane has been far less impressive, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and getting by with several close wins.  There is a common opponent in there in UTSA, which Tulane lost 48-26 to.  And when you compare the numbers of these two teams, it's easy to see that North Texas is the better squad.

The Mean Green average 7.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the country.  Tulane averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  Solid numbers, but a far cry from the two best teams in the conference in North Texas and USF.

North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the country at 325.7 yards per game through the air behind Drew Mestemaker (70.6% completions, 3,825 yards, 29 TD/4 INT).  They also rush for 186.1 yards per game with tremendous balance.  This is a terrible matchup for Tulane, which in recent games has allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to Florida Atlantic.  Their weakness is their secondary, and Mestemaker and company will exploit it.  Temps will be in the 50's tonight with no wind so the forecast favors the Mean Green passing attack.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Kennesaw State/Jacksonville State C-USA Championship No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on Jacksonville State three weeks ago, 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State two weeks ago, and 48 points and 452 total yards on Liberty last week.  Kennesaw State is averaging 36.0 points per game in its last seven games.  

I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB here down the stretch.  He is completing 64.7% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and averaging 9.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 379 yards and 7 scores.

The problem for Kennesaw State is their defense, which gets gashed consistently especially on the ground.  Jacksonville State rushed for 252 yards on them, Missouri State 191 and Liberty 291 the last three games.  They are injured at LB which is a big reason for their problems stopping the run.

Jacksonville State has one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook (1,588 yards, 15 TD) and a dual-threat QB in Caden Creel (973 yards, 6.4/carry, 6 TD).  The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country rushing for 262 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 per carry.  They are going to get whatever they want on the ground against this leaky Kennesaw State defense.

Jacksonville State is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Gamecocks won 37-34 at Western Kentucky last game for 71 combined points.  These teams combined for 71 points despite 5 Field Goals between them, so they actually got bogged down in scoring territory several times.  The Gamecocks racked up 515 total yards on WKU.

Kennesaw State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games going for 61 combined points with Jacksonville State, 75 with Missouri State and 90 with Liberty, which was at 70 at the end of regulation.  They had 579 total yards against Jacksonville State in that first meeting and 8 trips to the red zone, which resulted in just 3 TD and 2 FG as they turned it over 5 times.  So that 35-26 loss was a bit misleading and the Owls have a lot more room to put more points on the board in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Troy/James Madison Sun Belt Championship No-Brainer on James Madison -23

James Madison has been going for style points the entire 2nd half of the season knowing if they won out they would be a candidate to make the 12-team playoff.  They have done their part, and they will continue to go for style points tonight against Troy to impress the committee.  That's why I'm willing to lay this 23-point spread, plus several other reasons.

The Dukes are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.  In their last six games, they beat Old Dominion by 36 at home, Texas State by 32 on the road, App State by 48 at home and Coastal Carolina by 49 on the road.  They continued to tack on points late in all of those games.

Old Dominion is easily the second-best team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 63-27.  Texas State is probably the 3rd-most talented team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 52-20 on the road.  Troy is just a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team that was fortunate to make the title game due to playing in the worse division, plus a meltdown by Southern Miss which lost its final three games of the season.  Their reward for making the title game? Get beat down by James Madison.

This is a terrible matchup for Troy.  The Trojans can't run the ball ranking 120th in rushing at 109.2 yards per game and 130th at 3.0 yards per carry.  They will have to rely on the immobile Goose Crowder to throw the football behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.  The Trojans rank dead last in the country in pressure rate allowed and dead last allowing 4.1 sacks per game.  Old Dominion ranks 5th in the country in pressure rate defensively.

Against the only opponent that is even close to JMU talent-wise, Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion three games ago.  They were held to 138 total yards and allowed 503 yards, getting outgained by 365 yards by the Monarchs.  When JMU beat ODU 63-27, the Dukes outgained the Monarchs 624 to 285, or by 339 yards.  Bet James Madison Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys came back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

Speaking of Kansas City, Dallas won 31-28 as 3.5-point home dogs over the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.  They racked up 457 total yards on the Chiefs and held them to 362 yards, outgaining them by 95 yards.  So the Cowboys are now coming off consecutive wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year and two of the better teams in the NFL this year.  There will be no letdown here with this being a National TV game and the Cowboys still on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 393.1 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 29.2 points per game.

The Lions are broken and one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 16-9 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point dogs and needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT as 14-point favorites over the Giants at home.  Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  The Lions then lost 31-24 as 3-point home favorites to the Packers last week.

 It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now.  FS Kerby Joseph, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  SS Brian Branch is questionable.  The Cowboys are going to get whatever they want against this suspect Detroit defense that was shredded by the Giants and Packers at home the last two weeks.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright and WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Four starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, LG Kayode Awosika, RT Penei Sewell and C Graham Glasgow.  What a mess.  

But the biggest blow came last week when star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the Packers game with an ankle injury.  He hasn't practiced yet this week and is very doubtful to play tonight.  Jared Goff is going to be throwing to guys you've probably never heard of in TeSlaa, Kennedy, Lovett, Dwelley, Firkser and Rucci.  He's also going to be under duress all game and hates pressure up the middle, where Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark reside and will wreak havoc against the run and pass up the middle.

Given the health of the Cowboys compared to the health of the Lions, the wrong team is favored here.  I cannot believe this line opened +3.5 on the Cowboys this week.  I would make them a 25* at any underdog price, so +3 as of this writing is good too.  Make sure to put at least 25% of your bet on the Cowboys money line as well.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.