12-21-16 |
Wizards v. Bulls -4 |
|
107-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4
The Chicago Bulls are undervalued due to losing six of their last nine games overall. But they turned the corner with a 113-82 home win over Detroit on Monday, and I look for another big effort from them here tonight as only 4-point home favorites over the Washington Wizards. This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days so they're rested and ready to go.
Conversely, the Wizards come in overvalued due to going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. All five victories came at home, but they are 0-2 in their two road games at Miami and Indiana. The Wizards are now 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in 11 road games on the season.
The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Bulls have won three of their last four home meetings with the Wizards all by at least 5 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.
Chicago is 70-47 ATS in its last 117 home games after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread coming in. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|
12-21-16 |
Grizzlies v. Pistons -6 |
|
98-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6
The Detroit Pistons are highly motivated for a victory here tonight. They have lost three straight games by double-digits coming in, which has them undervalued. Stan Van Gundy has ripped their effort, and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight.
It helps that the Pistons face a Memphis Grizzlies team that is running on fumes right now. Indeed, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations a team can be in.
Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they went to overtime against Boston last night. Ton Allen played 38 minutes, Mike Conley played 36 and Marc Gasol played 37. I don't see Memphis having much left to give, which is a bad combination when you consider the hunger that the Pistons will be playing with.
Detroit is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of its last five games over the past three seasons. The Pistons are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games as home favorites. The Grizzlies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.
|
12-21-16 |
Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 209 |
Top |
102-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Cavs UNDER 209
I was on the UNDER 212.5 in the Cavs/Bucks game last night and it was a very bad beat. The game ended up tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points, but overtime sent it over the total. We'll get our money back and then some by taking the UNDER 209 tonight.
I really like taking the UNDER in these second of home-and-home situations. These teams play again tonight and are obviously very familiar with one another not only because they played last night, but also because this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks. Points are harder to come by when teams are familiar with each other. Not to mention, both teams will be fatigued in this 2nd of a back-to-back, which hurts offense more than defense.
A big reason I liked the UNDER last night was because Kevin Love wasn't playing, and he's questionable to return to the floor tonight. The Cavs really miss his offense, but they are a better defensive team without him. And now J.R. Smith likely has a broken thumb that he suffered last night and will miss an extended period of time. Smith helps the Cavs space the floor and his shooting will be missed, too. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
12-20-16 |
Nuggets +9 v. Clippers |
|
102-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9
Most of the time I'm looking to fade teams on the 2nd of back-to-backs. But that's not the case for certain teams like the Denver Nuggets, who have a young nucleus that isn't phased by these situations. And the Nuggets have one of the best benches in the NBA, which makes them less vulnerable than most teams in these spots.
The Nuggets have finally gotten healthy as Gary Harris just returned to the lineup and is lighting it up. They currently have nobody on the injury report for the first time all season, and as a result they are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight double-digit victories over Portland (by 12), New York (by 13) and Dallas (by 10).
Another reason I'm not worried about backing the Nuggets in this 2nd of a back-to-back is because this will still only be their 4th game in 8 days. Plus, they have two days off after this game, so they are going to put all their eggs into one basket here and give it their best effort.
I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point favorites here. They just suffered a big blow when Blake Griffin was injured in a 110-117 loss to Washington on Sunday. Griffin had to have knee surgery and will miss three-to-six weeks to recover. The Clippers have been lost without him in the past, and they will be lost without him moving forward. There's no way they should be laying 9 points without him, especially with how well the Nuggets are playing coming in.
Denver is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games as road underdogs. Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss as a favorite. This is the Clippers' first game home from a 3-game road trip. The last time they returned home from an extended road trip they lost to the Pacers 102-111 as 11.5-point favorites on December 4th. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|
12-20-16 |
Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 212.5 |
|
114-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 14 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bucks UNDER 212.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to want revenge from a 101-118 loss at Milwaukee on November 29th in their first meeting this season. They were going through their worst stretch of the season during that loss, but have since won six of their last seven games coming in.
The biggest reason for their improvement has been their emphasis on defense. They have allowed 94 or fewer points in four of their last six games coming in. And after giving up 118 to Milwaukee in that loss, they will be motivated to shut down the Bucks in the rematch.
The Bucks have been playing stingy defense of their own, allowing just 83.0 points per game in their last two contests. And their job just got a whole lot easier with Kevin Love now doubtful to play tonight with a knee injury. Love really makes the Cavs' offense go, and without him they are just a shell of themselves. But the Cavs are actually a better defensive team without Love in there as he is clearly a liability on that end.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last five seasons. Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-13 (75.5%) over the past five years. The UNDER is 35-17 in Bucks last 52 games following a straight up win. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
12-20-16 |
Pacers v. Knicks -5.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 45 m |
Show
|
20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -5.5
The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight. They have lost three straight games to end their recent five-game road trip. They'll be looking to get back on the winning track here. They have been a very resilient team this year as this is the first time that they've lost more than two in a row.
And the main reason they have lost three in a row is because star PG Derrick Rose has missed the past three games due to injury. Rose is expected to return to the lineup as he practiced on Monday and was symptom-free of his nagging back injuries. Rose is averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 assists this season while proving to be a huge addition to this roster.
The biggest reason I like the Knicks is because they have a huge rest advantage here. They last played on Saturday, giving them two days off in between games to get ready for the Pacers tonight. Meanwhile, Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.
Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they are short-handed right now, missing both Monte Ellis and Rodney Stuckey, who are instant offense for them. They have had to play their weak bench bigger minutes as guys like Al Jefferson, Glenn Robinson and Aaron Brooks saw significant time last night, especially Robinson and his five points in 30 minutes.
The Knicks are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season, while the Pacers are 4-10 SU & 4-10 ATS on the road. New York is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more. The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 110 points or more in their previous game. New York is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a dog this season. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its lat five games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|
12-19-16 |
Wizards v. Pacers -6 |
|
105-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6
The Washington Wizards are in a very tough spot here tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after topping the Clippers 117-110 at home last night as 5.5-point underdogs. After that huge win over the Clippers, it's only fitting that they would have a letdown here.
Meanwhile, the Pacers had yesterday off after a nice 105-90 road win at Detroit on Saturday. The Pacers have been handling their business at home this season, going 10-4 SU & 8-6 ATS on their home floor. I think they are worth the price as only 6-point favorites here.
The Washington Wizards have also been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road. The Wizards are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in road games this season. The Pacers have won four of their last five meetings against the Wizards.
The Wizards are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Pacers Monday.
|
12-18-16 |
Celtics -4 v. Heat |
|
105-95 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4
The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they've been all season as everyone on the roster is a full go now. They have battled injuries through the first quarter of the season, and that's why they are only 14-12. But this is one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference when healthy, and they're going to be showing value going forward.
The Celtics also come into this game against the Miami Heat hungry for victories. They lost three straight before a solid 96-88 home win over Charlotte as 6-point favorites on Friday. That followed a tough 3-game skid with a 7-point loss to Toronto, a 3-point road loss at OKC and a 7-point road loss at San Antonio. Those are three of the best teams in the NBA, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas didn't play in any of them. He returned against the Hornets last game and promptly scored 26 points to lead the way.
The Miami Heat have a ton of injury concerns of their own that are hampering them. They are just 9-18 on the season, including 4-9 at home. They remain without Dion Waiters and Chris Bosh, and both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson are questionable for this game. The Heat are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to their 4-0 ATS run coming in.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Heat since the start of last season. They have won all four meetings by at least 8 points and by an average of 10.0 points per game. The Heat just don't have an answer for them, especially short-handed now and against a fully healthy Boston outfit.
Boston is 14-3 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons. The Celtics are 36-17 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|
12-17-16 |
Rockets v. Wolves +3.5 |
|
111-109 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have had three days off since one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 99-94 road win at Chicago as 5.5-point dogs. They have had ample time to rest up and prepare to face the Houston Rockets, and they'll be motivated to end Houston's 9-game winning streak, while also putting an end to a 7-game skid in this series with the Rockets.
The Rockets come in overvalued due to this 9-game winning streak, and they are at a severe disadvantage in terms of rest and preparation. The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you'll find in the NBA.
The Rockets just broke the NBA record by making 24 3-pointers last night against the Pelicans on a NBA-record 61 attempts. It's only natural for them to have a letdown off that feat, and I expect their streak to come to an end tonight.
Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Saturday games. The Rockets are 14-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves have covered their last two games and are going to be a great bet going forward as they continue buying in to what Tom Thibodeau is preaching after a slow start to the season. Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.
|
12-16-16 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 204 |
|
95-69 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 204
This is the classic home-and-home game where the Bucks and Bulls played last night in Milwaukee, and now they're playing tonight in Chicago. I always look to back the UNDER in these situations for a number of reasons.
First, these teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing last night. Points are usually harder to come back because of it. Second, both teams are a little fatigued playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and that usually hurts the offense more than the defense.
Milwaukee beat Chicago 108-97 last night for 205 combined points. With this total set at 204, they basically just need one less basket to get the UNDER. And the previous two meetings between these teams stayed UNDER this total with combined scores of 200 and 190 points in their final two meetings last season. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings as well.
Chicago is 29-16 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 12-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two years. The UNDER is 23-8 in Bucks last 31 games following a win. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
12-16-16 |
Clippers v. Heat +7 |
|
102-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +7
The Miami Heat are about as healthy as they've been all season. Only Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters are out, while Tyler Johnson is questionable to play tonight. They had as many as seven guys on the injury report recently, and now they have only three.
As they've gotten healthier, the Heat has started to play up to their potential here of late. They have won two in a row while covering the spread in three straight. They only lost 100-105 in Chicago as 9.5-point dogs, beat Washington 112-101 as 1-point home dogs and beat Indiana 95-89 as 1-point home dogs.
The Clippers continue to be overvalued following their torrid start to the season. They have gone just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They only won 113-108 in Orlando as 8.5-point favorites two nights ago, and now this price seems steep again to me as 7-point road chalk over the Heat.
Los Angeles is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Clippers are 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Roll with the Heat Friday.
|
12-16-16 |
Pistons v. Wizards +2 |
Top |
108-122 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +2
The Washington Wizards have started to show some life here recently. John Wall called them out for their lack of effort in a home loss to the Magic. Since then, they've won three out of four with all three victories coming at home. I look for them to win a 4th straight home game tonight here against the Detroit Pistons.
The Wizards are now 8-6 at home this season, while the Pistons are just 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS on the road. This Detroit team has been dominant at home, but it has one of the worst home/away splits in the NBA.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Detroit. The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings. The Wizards are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Pistons, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|
12-15-16 |
Blazers v. Nuggets +1 |
|
120-132 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1
The Denver Nuggets are primed for a big performance tonight at home. They are as healthy as they have been all season right now as they currently have nobody on the injury report expected to miss this game. Gary Harris is back in the lineup, and the Nuggets are going to be a good bet in the near future.
I think this is a good spot to back them because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday. They will also be motivated to avenge two close losses to Portland already this season with a 113-115 home loss on October 29th and a 105-112 road loss on November 13th.
Portland will be playing its 6th game in 9 days here, and playing in the altitude in Denver won't help matters. The Blazers are just 5-10 on the road this season. Portland is 3-8 ATS in its last 13 road games. The Blazers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a win. Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.
|
12-15-16 |
Bulls v. Bucks -2 |
|
97-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -2
The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight coming in to fall one game below .500 on the season. Look for them to get back on track at home here, where they are 8-6 on the season.
The Bucks will be primed for a big performance because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday. The Bulls are just 6-7 in road games this year and are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Bucks Thursday.
|
12-15-16 |
Pacers v. Pelicans -2.5 |
|
95-102 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5
The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations for any team in the NBA.
The New Orleans Pelicans had yesterday off after nearly upsetting the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. They only lost that game 109-113 as 11-point home underdogs. I look for them to be a good bet going forward, especially now that they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.
The Pacers are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game and giving up a whopping 113.6 points per game away from home. Indiana is 0-9 ATS after a game where the opponent had 65 or more rebounds over the past three seasons. The Pacers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|
12-14-16 |
Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 199 |
Top |
101-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
20* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs on National TV. Points will be very hard to come by in this matchup, especially with the Celtics playing without their best player in Isaiah Thomas.
Not having Thomas does a couple things for the Celtics. While it makes them way worse off offensively, it's actually an upgrade for them defensively. It means that Marcus Smart plays more minutes, and he may be the best defender that they have. Not to mention Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are already plus defenders.
The last two games without Thomas have been very low-scoring as the Celtics lost 94-101 to the Raptors for 195 combined points and they lost 96-99 to the Thunder for 195 combined points. Both the Thunder and Raptors are elite offensive teams as well.
Boston is playing at a much slower tempo this year as it ranks 19th in pace. San Antonio is playing at a snail's pace, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace. But the Spurs will get after you defensively as they rank 5th in defensive efficiency. The UNDER is 5-2 in Spurs last seven games overall. We've seen 196 or fewer combined points in five of those contests.
Boston is 17-4 UNDER off a road loss by 6 points or less over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight vs. Western Conference opponents. The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 games overall. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Spurs last 26 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
12-14-16 |
Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 200 |
|
89-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Jazz UNDER 200
The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to show signs of wearing down. They only managed 99 points against Houston, 99 against Boston and then 95 against Portland last night in their last three games, respectively. Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and they could be without Victor Oladipo again, who sat out last night.
Points are going to be even harder to come by tonight against a Utah team that locks you down defensively. The Jazz rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions. And the Jazz prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.
The Jazz will control the tempo playing at home here. And the Jazz remain without starting point guard George Hill, who is second on the team in scoring. Not having him has hampered their offense. Nothing will come easy for the Jazz either as the Thunder rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City have seen 200 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. And all of those were with Kevin Durant playing for the Thunder. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder's last five games overall. The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 road games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Oklahoma City is 9-0 to the UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
12-13-16 |
Wolves +7 v. Bulls |
Top |
99-94 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +7
The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as you will find them all season right now. That's because they are off to a 6-18 start to the season. But this team is much better than their record as they have consistently blown leads throughout the season.
I think the Timberwolves players are really going to want to win this game for head coach Tom Thibodeau, who will be coaching against his former team in the Chicago Bulls for the first time. Things didn't exactly end well for him in Chicago, and he wants to stick it to the Bulls tonight.
The Bulls just have a tendency of playing up and down to their competition. They have beaten Cleveland and San Antonio recently, but they also have a home loss to the Lakers and a 25-point loss to the Mavs in recent weeks. I don't think we will get an 'A' effort here from the Bulls, either.
The Timberwolves swept the season series with the Bulls last year, winning 112-105 as 3.5-point home favorites and 102-93 as 9.5-point road dogs. Chicago is 16-29 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 12-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40% over the last three years.
Plays on road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|
12-12-16 |
Nets +14 v. Rockets |
|
118-122 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +14
The Houston Rockets are as overvalued as they are going to be all season right now. That's because they have won six straight coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process. And they are 17-7 ATS on the season, so the betting public has made a killing off of them.
But I question how much the Rockets will actually be motivated to beat the Brooklyn Nets, let alone beat them by 15-plus points, which is what it would take to cover this number. And the Rockets haven't shown up for the Nets in recent meetings. Brooklyn is 3-0 ATS in the last three, winning outright 110-105 as 5-point home dogs, winning outright 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs, and only losing 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.
Conversely, the Nets come in undervalued after losing four of their last five, including a 29-point blowout at San Antonio last time out. But they were competitive in their previous three games, losing by just 9 and 5 points, while also beating Denver by 5 points.
And now the Nets are as healthy as they've been all season with Jeremy Lin back in the lineup. They don't have any players expected to miss this game. And they'll be rested and ready to go as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Take the Nets Monday.
|
12-11-16 |
Warriors v. Wolves +11 |
Top |
116-108 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +11
The Golden State Warriors are in about as tough a spot as they've been all season tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days. They started showing signs of wearing down last night in an 89-110 loss at Memphis as 13-point favorites, and they certainly won't be in any better shape tonight.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as they're going to be all season. That's because they have gone just 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. I'm willing to overlook that because they always get up for teams like Golden State.
In fact, the Timberwolves have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors. They haven't lost by more than 13 points in any of those seven meetings. And after Ricky Rubio called out the team for their lack of effort following a bad loss to the Pistons on the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out, I expect an inspired effort from them here tonight.
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off three straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or more over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|
12-10-16 |
Nuggets -2.5 v. Magic |
Top |
121-113 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -2.5
The Orlando Magic are running on fumes right now, and it's starting to show. The Magic have been blown out in back-to-back games with an 87-117 home loss to Detroit and an 88-109 road loss at Charlotte last night.
It's easy to see why this team is struggling right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 7th game in 10 days tonight. That's as tough of a schedule as you will find in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets come in the fresher team after having yesterday off. They also come in motivated after losing two straight and five of their last six with four of those losses coming by 8 points or less. They are ready to get a win here tonight against the gassed Magic.
Making matters worse for the Magic is that both starting C Nikola Vucevic and backup C Bismack Biyombo were injured last night and questionable to play today. Denver is 20-5 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Denver is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Orlando. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|
12-09-16 |
Knicks v. Kings -3.5 |
Top |
103-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -3.5
The New York Knicks are coming off a confidence-crushing 94-126 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night on ESPN. They had won four straight prior to that game and were feeling pretty good, but it's going to be tough to recover from that loss in time to face the Sacramento Kings here two nights later.
That's especially the case considering the Knicks just beat the Kings 106-98 at home as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday. They won't be motivated to beat the Kings again only five days later, while the Kings will be highly motivated for revenge here at home this time around. I love this situation based on motivation.
The Kings are feeling pretty good after one of their best performances of the season in a 120-89 win at Dallas. They went just 2-3 on their road trip, but all three losses came by 8 points or less to Washington, Boston and New York, so they were very competitive. And the Kings still have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are consistently undervalued at home.
I know Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight after sitting out the Cavs game with a back injury, and I still would like the Kings at -4 even if he does play. If he doesn't play it would only be an added bonus. The Kings have actually won four of their last five meetings with the Knicks.
The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Sacramento is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Kings are rested as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. Bet the Kings Friday.
|
12-08-16 |
Nuggets v. Wizards -5.5 |
|
85-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5
I think we'll see a big effort from the Washington Wizards tonight at home. They are coming off a bad 116-124 home loss to the Orlando Magic. I have to give them a little break because it was the 2nd of a back-to-back, but start PG John Wall, who scored 52 points in the loss, wasn't giving his teammates a break after the loss.
"Not even just defensive effort, just playing hard," Wall said. "Our job is to wake up and just play hard. Before you made it to the NBA or got a college scholarship, you played hard to get where you wanted to get to. To still be talking about playing hard. ... That's the easiest thing. Shouldn't have to do with any contracts or any money. Just come in and play basketball."
The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They nearly erased a 29-point deficit in Brooklyn last night, but lost 111-116 in the end. They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and I don't see them having much left in the tank here tonight.
The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Washington. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.
|
12-07-16 |
Warriors v. Clippers +4.5 |
|
115-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5
The Los Angeles Clippers despise the Golden State Warriors. They will be out to prove that they're contenders in the West, and they'll be more motivated for this game than any other this season. I think this is a game that they win outright tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.
Adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost six straight to the Warriors. But five of those six losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they have been right there with a chance to win in nearly all of those games. I think they get over the top here tonight.
I like the fact that the Clippers have had two days off coming into this game to prepare for the Warriors. They will be well-rested and ready to go. The Warriors come in overvalued after their 142-106 home victory over Indiana on Monday where Klay Thompson scored 60 points. The Pacers had upset the Clippers the night before and didn't show up.
Plays on home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1996. The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.
|
12-07-16 |
Blazers v. Bucks -1 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -1
The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. They play in a small market and don't get much respect from the betting public or the books because of it. This is a very nice value here with the Bucks as only 1-point favorites over the Blazers.
The Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season coming in. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 106-107 to the San Antonio Spurs as 6-point dogs. They beat Cleveland 118-101 recently, and had narrow losses to Toronto (by 6) and Golden State (by 3) in the last few weeks, proving that they can play with anyone.
The Blazers come in overvalued off a 3-game winning streak. They have beaten the Pacers, Heat and Bulls during this stretch, catching all of those teams in bad spots. But the Blazers are getting outscored by 3.4 points per game on the road this season, while the Bucks are outscoring foes by 4.9 points per game at home.
Plays against road underdogs (PORTLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The lazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. The Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings. Take the Bucks Wednesday.
|
12-07-16 |
Pistons v. Hornets -5 |
Top |
77-87 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -5
The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. This team is running on fumes right now and won't be able to bring a very good effort tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.
Meanwhile, the Hornets will be highly motivated to avenge an 89-112 home loss to the Pistons on November 29th just over a week ago. That was a terrible spot for the Hornets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, so they simply didn't have anything to give.
That was a rare loss for the home team in this series because the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Hornets have won their previous three home meetings with the Pistons by 15, 20 and 22 points, or by an average of 19 points per game. With the Pistons in the tough spot this time around, look for the Hornets to get back to blowing them out at home tonight.
Charlotte is 29-16 ATS in its last 45 games when revenging a loss of 10 points or more. The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|
12-06-16 |
Spurs v. Wolves +5 |
|
105-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +5
The San Antonio Spurs are an impressive 12-0 on the road this season. But they are being overvalued now due to this perfect road record, and they certainly should not be laying 5 points on the road tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves given the spot.
The Spurs should have lost last night to the Bucks on the road, but they escaped with a 97-96 win as 6-point favorites. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. Don't be surprised of Greg Popovich rests some of his key players here given the spot.
The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with momentum after erasing a 7-point deficit in the final minute to beat Charlotte on the road 125-120 in overtime. Now the Timberwolves have had two days off in between games after beating the Hornets on Saturday. This young team will be fresh and ready to go, and look for them to try to run the tired Spurs out of the gym.
"The way we're losing, not getting blown out but making mental errors late in the game, it hurt us. It hurts me, especially," Karl-Anthony Towns told the Star Tribune. "To have a win like that, I'm finally able to smile, laugh a lot more and have my spirits up."
Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|
12-06-16 |
Bulls v. Pistons -5.5 |
Top |
91-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5
The Detroit Pistons have been a great bet at home this season as they are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game. They just returned one of their best players in starting PG Reggie Jackson, and he should continue to improve as the games go on.
We'll gladly fade the Chicago Bulls here in an awful spot. The Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. They are coming off a 110-112 home loss to Portland last night after losing 82-107 in Dallas a couple nights before. They are running on fumes right now and I don't expect much of an effort from them here.
The Pistons went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls last season. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Chicago as well. Their domination against the spread in this series should continue tonight given the awful spot here for the Bulls.
Detroit is 25-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two years. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.
|
12-05-16 |
Hornets v. Mavs +4.5 |
|
109-101 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5
The Dallas Mavericks are an undervalued team right now because of their 4-15 record on the season. But they are starting to get healthy and playing much better basketball as a result. They are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, which included a 107-82 beat down of the Chicago Bulls at home on Saturday.
Wesley Matthews had a season-high 26 points in the win while making seven of 11 from 3-point range, giving him 19 3s in his past four games. Deron Williams recently returned to the lineup and is averaging 10.9 points and six assists. Having him back has been the biggest key to their recent success. He had a whopping 15 assists against the Bulls.
I like this spot for the Mavs because they just played the Hornets on December 1st in a 87-97 road loss. Now they get to face them only four days later and will be out for revenge. Look for them to get that revenge with an outright win tonight, though we'll take the 4.5 points for some added insurance.
The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games. Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Mavericks Monday.
|
12-05-16 |
Thunder v. Hawks -2 |
|
102-99 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2
The Atlanta Hawks are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall. Eight of those 10 games were on the road, but they finally return home tonight where they are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS on the season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder come in overvalued after winning five straight games with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in all five. They wins have come against the Nuggets, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards and Pelicans. But now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating New Orleans 101-92 at home last night.
A big reason the Hawks have been struggling is because they have been without Paul Millsap, but there is a good chance he returns tonight. Conversely, Steven Adams was injured yesterday and is unlikely to play for the Thunder tonight. They will miss his presence inside if he can't go.
The Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take the Hawks Monday.
|
12-04-16 |
Kings v. Knicks -2.5 |
|
98-106 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -2.5
The New York Knicks continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as just 2.5-point home favorites here Sunday against the Sacramento Kings. The Knicks have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are really starting to play well together.
It was going to take some time for all the new faces to gel in New York, but it appears that they have found their groove, especially offensively. The Knicks have scored at least 102 points in nine consecutive games. That has to be refreshing for Knick fans after points have been so hard to come by in previous seasons. Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job in his first season.
The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect here. They will be playing their 4th straight road game, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season. The Knicks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this year, defending their home court very well.
Sacramento is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 road games off two straight losses by 6 points or less. New York is 54-28 ATS in its last 82 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|
12-03-16 |
Heat v. Blazers -6.5 |
|
92-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers had a team meeting about their defense before their last game and will be a 'play on' team for me going forward for a few games. They have come together and are way undervalued right now after losing six of their last nine games overall.
But the Blazers responded in a big way in their first game after addressing the issue, beating the Pacers 131-109 as 7.5-point home favorites. Now they are hosting a worse Miami Heat team and only laying 6.5 points here tonight, clearly showing that they remain undervalued.
Miami comes in overvalued after winning back-to-back road games at Denver and Utah. But the Nuggets are playing terrible right now and are banged-up, while the Jazz were missing three of their best players in George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors. The Heat's road winning streak comes to an end here in a big way, especially since they'll be without key players Justice Winslow, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson and Luke Babbitt, and they could be without Derrick Williams as well.
The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Blazers have won by 17 and 16 points in their last two home meetings with the Heat. Miami is 13-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest. Take the Blazers Saturday.
|
12-03-16 |
Nets +9.5 v. Bucks |
|
103-112 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5
This is the classic home-and-home situation. The Nets lost to the Bucks 93-111 at home on Thursday. Now they're playing just two days later, and I'm almost always inclined to take the team that lost the first meeting because they're going to be the more motivated team.
I really like when the home team loses and then taking them on the road in the second meeting. That's because we get more value, and that's the case here with the Nets catching 9.5 points. This is a game that they could win outright as they are very familiar with the Bucks having played them twice already, and I can't see the Bucks being too motivated to beat them a 3rd time this year.
Adding to the value is the fact that Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall coming in. That includes a win over the defending champion Cavaliers. But now the Bucks have the Spurs on deck and certainly could be looking ahead to that game.
Milwaukee is 3-17 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Bucks are 2-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years. The Bucks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Nets Saturday.
|
12-02-16 |
Rockets v. Nuggets -2.5 |
Top |
128-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
25* ESPN Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -2.5
This is my favorite play of the young NBA season thus far. We'll take the Denver Nuggets as slim 2.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets in a game that you'll get to watch on ESPN tonight. This game has the makings of a blowout in favor of the home team for a number of reasons.
First, Houston just beat Golden State in double-OT last night 132-127. This is a tired team right now because of it at James Harden played 46 minutes, Ryan Anderson played 45 and Trevor Ariza played 43. They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Nuggets.
Second, this is obviously a letdown spot for the Rockets now. They just went on the road and beat the team that everyone expects to win the NBA title this season. They won't be able to get up for the Nuggets here, and the spot is even tougher since they will be playing in altitude in the Mile High City.
Third, the Nuggets come in pissed off after a bad home loss to the Miami Heat last time out. They gave the game away by committing 19 turnovers after previously fixing that problem by giving it away 12 or fewer times in four of their previous five contests.
Fourth, the Nuggets are getting healthy as Will Barton and Darrell Arthur are both expected to be available tonight. Only Gary Harris is out for certain, so they're as healthy as they've been all season. Barton didn't play in the loss to the Heat and is a huge weapon for them offensively.
Fifth, Denver has had Houston's number recently, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. Houston is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall, and 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver. The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the past two seasons. The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Bet the Nuggets Friday.
|
12-02-16 |
Wolves v. Knicks UNDER 210 |
|
114-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Knicks UNDER 210
This is a home-and-home situation for the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks. New York beat Minnesota 106-104 on the road Wednesday night. Now these teams are extremely familiar with one another, which favors the UNDER and a defensive battle as they are playing again just two nights later.
And these teams have certainly played in their share of defensive battles of late. They haven't combined for more than 210 points in any of their last four meetings. They have averaged 196.8 combined points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, which is more than 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.
New York is 23-6 UNDER versus teams who score at least 103 points per game over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 14-2 UNDER when the total is 210 or more over the last two seasons, including 9-1 UNDER in home games when the total is 210 or more over the last two years. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
12-02-16 |
Magic v. 76ers -2 |
|
105-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -2
The Philadelphia 76ers have been a great beat at home this season. They are 9-3 ATS on their home floor and should make easy work of the Orlando Magic tonight. After all, the 76ers haven't played since Monday, so they will be ready to get back into competition tonight after having three days off in between games.
The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are in a terrible spot. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They shocked the Spurs to open this road trip, but then lost to a short-handed Memphis team last night. I look for this tough stretch to take its toll on the Magic here as they are out of gas and will come out flat tonight.
The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the 76ers Friday.
|
12-01-16 |
Heat v. Jazz -10 |
|
111-110 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -10
I've harped on it many times this season and I'm going to continue to do so. The Utah Jazz are a much better team with George Hill than without him. They are 8-3 with Hill in the lineup compared to 3-5 without him. Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.0 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.2 apg). He has been a real leader at the point guard position, something they've missed over the past few years.
Hill returned to the lineup four games ago, and it's no surprise that the Jazz have been playing their best basketball of the season of late. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games beating the Nuggets by 25 at home, The Hawks by 27 at home, the Timberwolves by 9 on the road and the Rockets by 19 at home.
Now the Jazz get to face a very tired, short-handed Miami Heat team. The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here. They picked up a huge win in Denver last night, but after playing in the altitude, their bodies aren't going to recover in time to be competitive against the Jazz tonight. Especially since they're without two key players in Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow.
Miami is 12-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days' rest. The Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Utah is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Utah. Roll with the Jazz Thursday.
|
12-01-16 |
Magic -1.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
94-95 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5
The Orlando Magic are coming off a big 95-83 road win at the San Antonio Spurs as 12.5-point underdogs Tuesday night. That put an end to a four-game losing streak in which they lost by 4, 5, 3 and 8 points. Now they should have some confidence going into Memphis tonight.
This is an awful spot for the Grizzlies as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They just learned that Mike Conley will be out for over a month with a back fracture, which was a huge blow to their team because he's their most important player. They have lost by 19 to Charlotte and by 15 to Toronto in their last two games without him.
Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they were already short-handed even without Conley. They are missing two other starters in Chandler Parsons and James Ennis, and they are without the best 6th man in the NBA in Zach Randolph. Being short-handed and playing your 5th game in 7 days is not a good combination.
Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after one or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 173-112 (60.7%) ATS since 1996. Orlando is 23-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take the Magic Thursday.
|
11-30-16 |
Hawks v. Suns +5.5 |
|
107-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +5.5
The Atlanta Hawks are in about as tough of a spot as you will find. They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days here. They just played the Golden State Warriors on Monday in a narrow loss, and they will likely suffer a hangover from that defeat against the best team in the West. They won't be up for the Suns tonight.
This tough schedule is clearly taking its toll on the Hawks as they have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. That includes a 10-point road loss to the Knicks, a 16-point home loss to the Pelicans, a 27-point road loss to the Jazz and a 15-point road loss to the Lakers.
The Phoenix Suns haven't been playing a whole lot better, but they are primed for a big effort here. They have had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday. They also have two more days off after this game. They are putting emphasis on winning this contest.
Tyson Chandler's absence has been a big reason for the Suns' struggles. Chandler has missed eight of the past 10 games to deal with his mother's death. But he returned against the Nuggets last time out and finished with 10 points and 15 rebounds. Having him will be key in this game to counter Atlanta's Dwight Howard.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-21 (69.6%) ATS since 1996. Phoenix is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS loss. The Suns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. The Hawks are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest. Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with the Suns Wednesday.
|
11-30-16 |
Heat v. Nuggets -6 |
Top |
106-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -6
The Miami Heat are an absolute mash unit right now. They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters, and they could be without key bench player Tyler Johnson again tonight. Not to mention. both Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are nursing injuries right now that they are simply playing through.
The results have been ugly for the Heat of late as they are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes a 94-101 road loss at Philadelphia and an 84-107 road loss at Detroit. They are shooting just 42.1% from the floor in their last five. Now they must go play in the altitude in Denver, and I don't think they can keep up with the high-powered Nuggets.
Denver is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. It is scoring 107.0 points per game, including 110.5 points per game at home. To compare, Miami scores 96.1 points per game overall and 94.0 on the road. And the Nuggets are getting healthy as Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton are expected to play. The only player they should be missing is Gary Harris tonight, but they've been without him for the majority of the season.
The Nuggets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with two of their losses coming to Toronto and Oklahoma City by a combined five points. They have been bitten by close losses all season, but this game shouldn't be close at all given the injuries for the Heat.
Miami is 10-22 ATS versus explosive offensive teams that score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Denver is 21-8 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games over the last three seasons. The Heat are 4-13 ATS in road games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two years. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The Heat are 5-15 ATS in the last 20 meetings, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to Denver. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|
11-30-16 |
Grizzlies v. Raptors -12 |
|
105-120 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -12
The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mash unit right now. It happened last year as injuries killed their season, and it's starting to happen again this season. The Grizzlies were already without starters James Ennis and Chandler Parson, as well as the NBA's best sixth man in Zach Randolph.
But now they'll be without Mike Conley for at least a month due to a back fracture suffered last time out. The Grizzlies lost that game 85-104 at home to the Hornets without all of those players. They have to feel snake bitten right now with these injuries, and I don't expect much of an effort from them here tonight.
And now the Grizzlies must face one of the best teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have gone 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS this season. They continue to be an undervalued commodity and are a legitimate threat to Cleveland in the East. And they rarely take teams lightly, as evidenced by their 122-95 throttling of the 76ers on Monday.
The Grizzlies are a tired team right now as they'll be playing their 8th game in 13 days, which just compounds the problem with the injuries. Memphis is 68-99 ATS in its last 167 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Grizzlies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. Toronto is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Take the Raptors Wednesday.
|
11-29-16 |
Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 |
|
101-120 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* Rockets/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2.5
I've made this point a few times this season and I'll keep harping on it. Utah is a much better team with George Hill in the lineup. The Jazz are 7-3 in games with Hill, and 3-5 in games without him. It's easy to see why as Hill leads the team in both scoring (21.2 ppg) and assists (4.2 apg).
The Jazz are starting to play up to their potential now that they are nearly full strength health-wise. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating the Nuggets by 25 and Hawks by 27 at home, and then the Timberwolves by 9 on the road.
I'm not that concerned that this will be a back-to-back for the Jazz because they had two days off prior to the Timberwolves game last night. Plus, they will be out for revenge from a 102-111 road loss at Houston just 10 days ago on November 19th. That will give them the extra motivation they need to push through. George Hill missed that loss to Houston, too, and he'll make all the difference in the rematch.
Houston is an overvalued commodity right now and it's time to fade them. The Rockets have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall as the public bettors continue to pour in on them. They are now favored on the road against what I feel is one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Jazz. The price is right to take the Jazz as home dogs here.
Utah is 63-34 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last three seasons. Mike D'Antoni is 22-40 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached. The Jazz are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days' rest. The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Jazz Tuesday.
|
11-28-16 |
Celtics -3.5 v. Heat |
Top |
112-104 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5
The Boston Celtics have started to play up to their potential now that they are fully healthy after playing several games without both Al Horford and Jae Crowder. They have won three off their last four with all three wins coming on the road, and their only loss coming at home to the San Antonio Spurs, who are 10-0 on the road this season.
The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who have a laundry list of injuries and cannot afford to be short-handed with their lack of talent already. The Heat are just 5-11 on the season. They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Wayne Ellington. They could be without Goran Dragic and Willie Reed again tonight. And Dion Waiters is nursing a groin injury.
The Celtics come in well-rested as they will have had two days off since the loss to the Spurs on Friday. The Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Celtics have have the Heat's number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three straight wins by double-digits.
The Celtics are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Monday games. Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents and 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Boston is 35-17 ATS in the last 52 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Miami. Bet the Celtics Monday.
|
11-27-16 |
Cavs v. 76ers +13 |
|
112-108 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +13
The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued today as 13-point road favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers. I'll gladly take the home team and the points for a couple of different reasons.
It's worth mentioning that Lebron James and several Cleveland players attended the Michigan/Ohio State game yesterday and were down on the sidelines. Their focus clearly isn't on beating the 76ers today in this 1:00 EST start time.
The 76ers always get up for the Cavs, while the same cannot be said for Cleveland. In fact, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Cleveland. Only once have they lost by more than 13 points during this stretch, and six of those games were decided by 10 points or less. That includes a 101-102 Cleveland home victory in their only meeting this season as 12.5-point favorites on November 5th.
The Cavaliers are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the 76ers Sunday.
|
11-26-16 |
Knicks v. Hornets UNDER 206 |
|
102-107 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 206
This is the rare home-and-home game in the NBA. The Knicks and Hornets played an overtime thriller in New York last night. The Knicks prevailed 113-111 in overtime. That game saw 208 combined points at the end of regulation.
Now oddsmakers have set the total at 206 in the rematch. I believe it's too high. Familiarity favors defense, and points will be very hard to come by for both teams tonight. I don't expect either team to get to the 100-point mark in this one. They'll both be fatigued off an OT game, and that hurts teams offensively more than defensively.
These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings. They have averaged 191.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those nine meetings, which is more than 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 206. There's clearly some value here with the UNDER.
New York is 21-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 36-17 in Knicks last 53 overall. Charlotte is 89-53 to the UNDER in its last 142 after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
11-25-16 |
Hawks v. Jazz -2.5 |
Top |
68-95 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -2.5
The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now. They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the price on them is cheap right now. But a big reason for their struggles was injuries, most notably to starting point guard George Hill.
But Hill returned to the lineup last time out and the Jazz got back on track by crushing the Denver Nuggets 108-83 at home. Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game while shooting 55% from the field. He has missed eight games this season already, and they are 5-3 without him compared to 3-5 without him.
This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jaz, so they'll be fresh and ready to go. The Hawks will be playing their 7th game in 11 days and have shown signs of wearing down. Atlanta is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall, but it is still getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.
Utah is 59-34 ATS in its last 93 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread. The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on one days' rest. The Jazz are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Jazz Friday.
|
11-23-16 |
Nuggets v. Jazz -4.5 |
|
83-108 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5
The Utah Jazz will be extremely motivated for a victory at home tonight. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, so they are clearly undervalued right now. And one of those losses came against the Nuggets just three days ago in Denver, so they'll want revenge as well.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, come in on a 5-0 ATS winning streak. They are starting to get a lot of respect from the books, and it's time to fade them. And this is a very tired team right now as the Nuggets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.
Meanwhile, the Jazz come in rested as they had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday. They're hoping to get starting point guard George Hill back from injury. And they have certainly owned this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.
The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Salt Lake City. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Jazz Wednesday.
|
11-23-16 |
Hawks v. Pacers +2.5 |
|
96-85 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5
The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad loss to the Golden State Warriors at home, which was the second of a back-to-back after beating Oklahoma City 115-111 in overtime on the road the night before. And they were missing several key players in that contest against the Warriors.
But now the Pacers are expected to be healthier for this showdown against the Atlanta Hawks. Jeff Teague is probable, while Paul George is on the probable side of questionable after missing the past three games. Myles Turner is also probable. The Pacers are 6-3 at home this season, while the Hawks are just 3-3 on the road.
The Hawks have lost three straight coming in and are clearly starting to wear down. They even lost 94-112 at home to the Pelicans last night as 8-point favorites. Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets in terms of rest situations in the NBA.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.
|
11-22-16 |
Bulls v. Nuggets +2.5 |
|
107-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +2.5
The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now due to going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They are now being asked to lay points on the road to the Denver Nuggets when they really shouldn't be favored.
The Bulls will start to wear down tonight. They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing both the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles on back-to-back nights Saturday and Sunday.
The Denver Nuggets have been an undervalued commodity all season. They've gone 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last four, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers because of their 5-8 straight up record. But they've have some real tough luck in close games this season. They will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days here.
Chicago is 13-33 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Denver.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|
11-21-16 |
Raptors v. Clippers UNDER 209.5 |
|
115-123 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5
The Toronto Raptors are extremely tired right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. They started showing signs of slowing down last night in a 99-102 loss at Sacramento as they shot just 40% from the floor and easily went under the 211-point total.
I think the fatigue will hurt the Raptors a lot more on offense than it will on defense tonight. Plus, the Raptors will be up against a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers only allow 95.4 points per game on the season, including 90.1 points per game at home.
These teams met twice last season and both games went UNDER the total. They scored 171 combined points with a 203.5-point total in their lone meeting in Los Angeles. Then they scored 204 combined points with a 206.5-point total in their rematch in Toronto. The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles is 21-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons, including 15-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Clippers are 12-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents ty 3-plus points per game over the last two years. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
11-21-16 |
Rockets v. Pistons OVER 205.5 |
|
99-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Pistons OVER 205.5
This is a very low total for any game that involves the Houston Rockets. In fact, this is the second-lowest total for a Rockets game this season. The lowest was 200.5 last time out against the Jazz, and they easily went over that with 213 combined points.
The Rockets and their opponents have combined for at least 200 points in 12 of 13 games this season. Houston ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.2 points per 100 possessions. It is averaging 109.1 points per game on the season and giving up 104.9.
The two meetings between the Pistons and Rockets last season were very high scoring. They went over 198 points in a 116-105 home win for the Pistons for 221 combined points. They also went over their 209.5-point total with ease in Houston with a 123-114 final and 237 combined points.
The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Monday games. The OVER is 8-2 in Pistons last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Detroit. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|
11-20-16 |
Bulls v. Lakers +2.5 |
Top |
118-110 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5
The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now. They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. It's now time to fade them with the awful spot they are in here.
The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd road games in 4 days. They have to be fatigued after losing 95-102 to the Clippers last night, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were out partying last night in Los Angeles.
The Lakers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 7-6 SU & 8-4 ATS. They are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as home underdogs. And this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they will be the much fresher team.
Los Angeles is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 1 days' rest. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|
11-19-16 |
Wolves -2.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
71-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a very tough spot here. They are returning for their first home games followign a four-game road trip. And they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.
After three straight road wins over Utah, the LA Clippers and Dallas, the Grizzlies are clearly primed for a letdown spot here. The Timberwolves come on on a days' rest after throttling the 76ers 110-86 at home on Thursday. This team is only going to continue to get better as the season goes on.
These teams have already played twice this season. Minnesota blew a 20-plus point lead early in a 98-102 loss at Memphis, but bounced back with a 116-80 home win over the Grizzlies in the next meeting. It's clear by those two results that the T'Wolves match up well with them, and this is certainly a favorable situation given the Grizzlies are running on fumes.
Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Take the Timberwolves Saturday.
|
11-18-16 |
Grizzlies -1.5 v. Mavs |
|
80-64 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5
The Dallas Mavericks are an absolute dumpster fire right now. They are just 2-8 on the season and have rarely been competitive. Their roster was already below-average prior to the season, but now with all the injuries they are dealing with, it's one of the worst in the NBA.
The Mavericks are now without their offensive spark plug in J.J. Barea, who suffered a strained calf last time out. The Mavericks are already without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles soreness) and Devin Harris (toe), and Deron Williams (strained calf) had to leave Wednesday's game before halftime after returning from a four-game absence. Williams is doubtful to play tonight. Those are four key players that they just can't afford to be without.
Conversely, the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to get healthy with the return of Chandler Parsons. And they are starting to play up to their potential as a result. They have pulled off huge upsets in their last two games, winning 102-96 in Utah as 6-point dogs, and 111-107 on the road over the Los Angeles Clippers as 12.5-point dogs.
The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Dallas is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.
|
11-18-16 |
Hawks v. Hornets -2.5 |
|
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5
The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now because they have won six straight to improve to 9-2 on the season and in a first-place tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers. However, the Hawks have benefited from a home-heavy schedule, and an easy schedule at that.
The Charlotte Hornets are 7-3 on the season yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have played five games on the road and five at home. The Hornets are outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per game at home this year.
The Hornets did lost three out of four meetings with the Hawks last season, but they lost the first two by a combined five points. They beat the Hawks 107-84 as 3-point home dogs and lost 92-94 as 2-point home dogs in their two home meetings.
Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and could be without both Dwight Howard and Thobo Sefolosha. Charlotte had two days off before this game and will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games overall. The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Hornets Friday.
|
11-17-16 |
Bulls v. Jazz -3.5 |
|
85-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5
The Utah Jazz have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. Five of those six wins came by 11 points or more with five of them on the road. In fact, they've played eight road games this season compared to just four at home, so their 7-5 record is impressive to this point.
I like the value we are getting with the Jazz as only 3.5-point favorites here. The Chicago Bulls come in way overvalued due to three straight victories. D-Wade won his return to Miami, then they beat the short-handed Wizards who were without John Wall and Bradley Beal.
The Bulls' 113-88 win at Portland on Tuesday was impressive, but it also had them overvalued here. And the Jazz last played on Monday in a loss to the Grizzlies, so they will be motivated to bounce back, plus they've had two days to prepare for the Bulls.
The home team won both meetings between these teams last year. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Take the Jazz Thursday.
|
11-16-16 |
Grizzlies +12 v. Clippers |
|
111-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12
The Los Angeles Clippers are getting so much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS records. It's time to sell high on them here as they are being asked to lay a whopping 12 points at home to the Memphis Grizzlies now.
The Grizzlies are getting healthy as Chandler Parsons is starting to shake the rust off. They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 102-96 win in Utah Monday night as 6-point underdogs. Even veteran Vince Carter is playing well, averaging 19 points on 60 percent shooting in his past three games.
Memphis is going to want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to Los Angeles on November 4th just under two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. The Grizzlies have played the Clippers very tough in the past few seasons, going 4-5 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. I look for them to keep this game close throughout tonight.
Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS after a game committing 10-plus less turnovers than its opponents over the past three seasons. The Clippers are extremely overvalued now off their 127-95 win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets at home last time out. Memphis will give them a fight. Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.
|
11-16-16 |
Bucks +7 v. Hawks |
|
100-107 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +7
The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back following their 93-90 win at Miami last night. And now they could be without C Dwight Howard, who suffered a quad injury against Miami and is questionable to play tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks have had a whopping three days' rest to get ready for the Hawks. They last played on November 12 in a 106-96 home victory over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Bucks have been playing much better of late after a slow start, winning four of their last six games overall.
The Bucks won two of three meetings with the Hawks last season despite being underdogs in all three. They won 108-101 as 4.5-point home dogs and 117-109 as 8.5-point road dogs. They like the matchup, and the rest situation certainly favors them here as they should not be catching 7 points.
Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the past three seasons. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three years. Atlanta is 49-72 ATS in its last 121 games off a close win by 3 points or less. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the Bucks Wednesday.
|
11-16-16 |
Cavs v. Pacers +5 |
Top |
93-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Cavs/Pacers Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Indiana +5
The Indiana Pacers are 5-1 at home this season and will be highly motivated for tonight's game against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. In recent years, Bankers Life Fieldhouse has been a tough place for LeBron James' teams to play. The Cavaliers beat the Pacers in Indianapolis in February last season. James's teams hadn't won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012 before that.
"Bankers Life Fieldhouse is always tough," James said. "It's been tough my whole career."
"It's a big game," Pacers coach Nate McMillan said. "The world champs are coming in here. It's kind of a game where you measure yourself."
The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after winning 121-117 at home against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. J.R. Smith didn't play last night and is questionable to return. If he can't play, the Cavaliers will certainly miss his outside shooting and ability to stretch the floor.
Indiana went 1-3 against Cleveland last season, but all three losses came by 5 points or less. The Pacers actually outscored the Cavs by one point in those four meetings because their lone win came by 14 points, while their three losses came by a combined 13 points.
The Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win. Indiana is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Indiana. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|
11-15-16 |
Hornets v. Wolves +1.5 |
|
115-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be underdogs at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight. This is a team that is only going to continue to improve with each game. The Timberwolves have had some tough losses during their 3-6 start in which they've blown big leads.
However, Minnesota is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season in a 125-99 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.2 points per game in their four home games this season.
The Charlotte Hornets are in a tough spot here. They are coming off back-to-back losses against the top two contenders in the East in the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from those defeats and to not be able to emotionally get up to face the Timberwolves tonight.
Charlotte is 18-40 ATS in its last 58 road games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The Timberwolves are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|
11-15-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 208 |
|
117-121 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER 208
The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers are extremely familiar with one another. That's because they played in the Eastern Conference Finals last year that wound up going six games. And they've already played once this season. That familiarity makes points very hard to come by.
That has been evident in these meetings. The Cavs and Raptors have combined for 204 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings. They have averaged a combined 194.8 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 208. They combined for 185 points in a 94-91 Cleveland win in their first meeting this season.
Toronto is 10-1 UNDER in road games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 35-16 in Cavs last 51 vs NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
11-14-16 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 190 |
|
102-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190
The Grizzlies and Jazz have consistently played in low-scoring games in recent meetings. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA because they are two of the few that are dominated by their big men inside. It's Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for Memphis, and Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for Utah.
The Grizzlies and Jazz have combined for 190 or fewer points in nine consecutive meetings. They have combined for 182, 179, 168, 177, 175, 190, 188, 178 and 182 points in their last nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 179.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total.
The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah. The UNDER is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Grizzlies last six games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
11-13-16 |
Suns +16.5 v. Warriors |
|
120-133 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +16.5
After back-to-back blowout victories over the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued now as 16.5-point home favorites over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly fade them as I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.
The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, but they had two days off before playing the Nets yesterday. This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they can handle these situations much better than the average team. And of course they are going to get up to face the Warriors tonight.
The Suns want revenge from a 100-106 home loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs on October 30th in their first meeting this season. That was yet another close loss for the Suns recently in this series. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer as the Suns have gone 3-0 ATS while being double-digit dogs each time.
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 40-16-2 ATS in its last 58 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days' rest. Bet the Suns Sunday.
|
11-12-16 |
Clippers v. Wolves +5 |
|
119-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are much better than their 2-5 record would indicate. They blew big leads in three of their five losses, and small leads in the other two. They just weren't able to finish games up to this point. Now I think we are getting them at a discount here as 5-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Timberwolves have a huge edge in rest. They come in on two days' rest, while the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially after a huge 110-108 win at Oklahoma City last night. I don't think they'll have much left in the tank here.
Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.
|
11-11-16 |
Pistons v. Spurs -8.5 |
Top |
86-96 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5
The San Antonio Spurs are going to be highly-motivated for a victory here tonight. They have lost two straight and three of their last four after a 4-0 start. The Spurs have inexplicably lost three straight home games after losing just one all of last season during the regular year.
Greg Popovich will get the most out of his players here tonight, especially considering the Spurs are well-rested and ready to go tonight. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be laying it all on the line in this one.
The Detroit Pistons are 4-0 at home this season, but 0-4 on the road. They haven't even been competitive away from home this season as they are getting outscored by 16.2 points per game on the road. They really miss starting PG Reggie Jackson in the early going, and I give them little chance of being competitive here.
San Antonio is 10-1 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 13.3 points per game in this spot. Bet the Spurs Friday.
|
11-11-16 |
Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics |
|
87-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +5.5
The New York Knicks are showing great value here as road underdogs to the Boston Celtics. The Knicks are starting to catch on to Jeff Hornacek's system as they have won two of their last three while averaging 112.0 points per game in the process.
The Boston Celtics simply should not be favored against many teams right now with the injuries they are dealing with. They have been without two starters in Al Horford and Jae Crowder in their last couple games, and the results have not been pretty.
The Celtics have lost three straight. The last two have been especially alarming. They lost 107-123 as 7-point home favorites over the Nuggets, and 93-118 as 1.5-point road dogs against the Wizards. Horford and Crowder are their two best defenders, and they miss them more on that end than anything as they are giving up 123.0 points per game in their last three.
This has been a closely-contested series recently as each of the last five meetings were decided by single-digits. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents. Boston is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Knicks Friday.
|
11-11-16 |
Cavs v. Wizards +7.5 |
|
105-94 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers may be 6-1 this season, but they have made for excellent fade material as they have been overvalued time and time around. I think the championship hangover is real, and they aren't giving max effort every night they take the court.
After visiting the White House Thursday, the players' focus certainly won't be on this game as much as it otherwise would be. That's a huge distraction, and I don't expect the Cavaliers to be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.
The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They haven't beaten a team by more than 8 points this season since the opener against New York. Five of their seven games have been decided by 6 points or less. That is likely to be the case against here against the Wizards, who haven't lost by more than 10 points since their opener.
The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cavs while only losing by more than 6 points once during that stretch. They actually won two of their four meetings with the Cavs outright last season. They have a good shot of pulling off the upset here again tonight. Take the Wizards Friday.
|
11-10-16 |
Bulls v. Heat -2 |
|
98-95 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -2
The Miami Heat are rested and ready to go tonight against the Chicago Bulls. They will be hungry following back-to-back losses on the road to the Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder. They have had two days off since that loss to the Thunder to get ready for the Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls certainly don't have that same luxury. This is a tired team right now as the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 107-115 in Atlanta last night. They have lost four of their last five games overall coming in.
The problem with the Bulls is that they do not play defense. They have given up at least 107 points in four of their last five games, all four of which were losses. The only exception was a win over the Orlando Magic at home, but the Magic are one of the worst teams in the NBA.
Chicago is 4-15 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past two seasons. The Bulls are 3-17 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last two years. Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 0 days' rest. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Heat Thursday.
|
11-09-16 |
Raptors v. Thunder -3.5 |
|
112-102 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites here against the Toronto Raptors. Since Kevin Durant left, this team was pretty much written off, and they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder in the early going.
The Thunder are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Durant's Warriors, which was the second of a back-to-back after a huge road win over the Clippers the night before. The Thunder are 4-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game.
The Toronto Raptors are overvalued right now after their 4-2 start. But they have played five of their six games at home, and their only road win came at Washington, which is 1-5 right now. The Raptors lost 91-96 at home to the Kings last time out and were without key center Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is doubtful to return tonight.
The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points or more. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games. Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.
|
11-09-16 |
Bulls +3 v. Hawks |
|
107-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3
The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 110-106 road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point underdogs last night. I fully expect them fall flat on their faces tonight off such a big win.
That now makes this a very tough spot for the Hawks. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. The Bulls come in on one days' rest after a blowout 112-80 win over the Orlando Magic. It was their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Magic to just 38.8% shooting.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|
11-08-16 |
Mavs v. Lakers -4.5 |
|
109-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Mavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers appear to be the most improved team in the NBA in the early going. I think they are still being undervalued here by oddsmakers as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.
The Lakers look like a poor man's Warriors this season with the hiring of Luke Walton. They are spreading the floor and letting their young playmakers go to work. The Lakers have opened 4-3 SU but 6-1 ATS. All three of their losses came on the road.
But the Lakers are 3-0 at home this season. They beat the Rockets 120-114 as 6-point dogs, the Warriors 117-97 as 11.5-point dogs, and the Suns 119-108 as 4-point favorites. I was really impressed with the way they came back and beat the Suns in a clear letdown spot following that 20-point win over the Warriors.
The Dallas Mavericks are a mess right now. They are just 1-5 on the season with their only victory coming at home in overtime against the Bucks, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and were tired. Not helping matters is that the Mavs are without two key players in Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams right now.
I expect the Lakers to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight. They are scoring 110.3 points per game on the season, while the Mavs are being held to 95.5 points per game on 41.1% shooting. Los Angeles is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games. Take the Lakers Tuesday.
|
11-08-16 |
Suns +8 v. Blazers |
|
121-124 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8
The Phoenix Suns are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. I know they're just 2-5, but one loss came on the road to the Thunder in overtime, and another was a 6-point loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point home underdogs.
The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-3 this season and overvalued off back-to-back victories over the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who both have struggled early. The Blazers have a big game against the Clippers on deck tomorrow night, and they could be looking ahead to that one as the first meeting between them and the Clippers was very chippy back on October 27th.
Both the Suns and Blazers are guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for the Suns. That has proven to be the case in recent meetings. The Suns are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Blazers since last season. They won 118-115 (OT) as 3-point home dogs in their first meeting this year. I look for them to go on the road this time around and keep this one close, possibly pulling off the upset.
Plays on road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. Phoenix is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.
|
11-08-16 |
Wolves -4 v. Nets |
Top |
110-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
0* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be motivated for a victory tonight after a 1-4 start to the season. But this team is way better than its record would indicate as they have been the kings of blowing big first half leads in three of their four losses.
Now the Timberwolves get to go up against the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the wrost teams in the NBA. The Nets are 2-4 on the season and are getting way too much respect here from oddsmakers due to going 5-1 ATS. But this is their smallest underdog role thus far, which shows just how much respect they're getting.
The Timberwolves made easy work of the Nets in their two meetings last season. They won 100-85 as 1.5-point road favorites, and 132-118 as 9.5-point home favorites. The Nets are without starting PG Jeremy Lin, which is a big blow to a roster that already lacks talent.
Plays against home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home games over the past three seasons. Minnesota is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|
11-07-16 |
Jazz v. 76ers +7.5 |
|
109-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. The schedule makers have certainly done them no favors here in the early going, and I think they run out of gas tonight.
Gordon Hayward made his season debut last night for the Jazz in the 114-109 win at New York. They didn't hold him back at all as he played a whopping 35 minutes. He will surely feel the effects tonight. Rodney Hood played 38 minutes, George Hill played 35 and Rudy Gobert played 33 last night as well.
The Philadelphia 76ers are hungry for their first win of the season. They are 0-5, but they have come oh-so-close in three home games. They only lost 97-103 (OT) to the Thunder as 9-point dogs, 101-103 to the Magic as 5-point dogs, and 101-102 to the Cavaliers as 12-point dogs. They should easily stay within this 7.5-point spread tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.
The 76ers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest division foes. Philadelphia is 37-17-2 ATS in its last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Jazz are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the 76ers Monday.
|
11-06-16 |
Bucks v. Mavs -2.5 |
|
75-86 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5
The Dallas Mavericks are extremely hungry for their first win of the season today. But due to their 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS start, the Mavs are undervalued right now. We are getting a discount here with them as only 2.5-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.
It's the perfect storm really because the Bucks are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. But those three wins came against the Pelicans on the road, and the Pacers and Kings at home.
And now the Bucks are in one of the toughest situations in the NBA. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. I don't believe they'll have enough gas left in the tank to match the Mavericks tonight, especially with the Mavs playing desperate basketball to get that first win.
The Bucks are 48-87 ATS in their last 135 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. Milwaukee is 5-16 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Mavs have gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks. They have won their last three home meetings by 10, 23 and 13 points. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.
|
11-05-16 |
Bulls v. Pacers -3 |
|
94-111 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night. They are 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road. One of those road losses came at Chicago on October 29th. So, the Pacers will be out for revenge on the Bulls in this one.
And the Bulls are in a tough spot as it is. While the Pacers had yesterday off to prepare for revenge on the Bulls, Chicago played New York yesterday. So, the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. This is a fatigued team right now that won't be able to keep up with Indiana's aggressiveness.
The Pacers are playing an even more attacking style this season, which will exploit the Bulls' fatigue. They are putting up 109.4 points per game this season while shooting 39.3% from 3-point range. And once Jeff Teague gets acclimated to his new team and offense soon, it's going to be even more explosive.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won six of the past seven meetings. Indiana is 32-12 SU at home against Chicago in its last 44 meetings. The Pacers are 24-10 ATS after having lost three of their last four games over the past three seasons. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Indiana. Take the Pacers Saturday.
|
11-04-16 |
Suns +3.5 v. Pelicans |
|
112-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5
I've been on the Phoenix Suns in every game this season and I'm going to continue to back them as long as they are undervalued. There's no way the Suns should be underdogs here against the 0-5 New Orleans Pelicans.
The SUns have played a brutal early schedule, and they are undervalued because they are 1-4. But they only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs. They beat Portland 118-115 (OT) last time out as 2.5-point dogs to give them some confidence. And their other two losses came to the Clippers (on a back-to-back) and Kings (opener).
The Pelicans just can't catch a break in the injury department. They are missing two starters in Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, which is the biggest reason they are 0-5. They have lost to the Nuggets, Warriors and Bucks at home, as well as the Spurs and Grizzlies on the road. They simply have to rely too much on Anthony Davis right now because they are playing so many scrubs and inexperienced players due to the injuries.
The Suns crushed the Pelicans in their finale two meetings last season, winning 104-88 at home and 121-100 on the road. New Orleans is 8-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Plays against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Suns Friday.
|
11-04-16 |
Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
117-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
20* Knicks/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 211.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. I expect the defensive intensity in this game to be very high with both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah making their much-anticipated returns to Chicago.
The Bulls wanted to play faster under Fred Hoiberg, but that just hasn't been the case. They rank 19th in pace this season at 98.7 possessions per game. But they have actually been very good on defense this year as they are 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions.
That's really impressive when you consider the Bulls have faced the Celtics (twice) and Pacers, along with the up-tempo Nets. They have played some of the best offenses in the NBA to this point. And we've seen 207 or fewer combined points scored in three of Chicago's four games.
The Knicks have scored 99 or fewer points in three of their four games this season. They are lost offensive right now as they are trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's new system. Indeed, the Knicks rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 96.1 points per 100 possessions.
Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER. The Bulls and Knicks have combined for 200 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 211.5-point total set. New York is 9-0 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
11-03-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 209.5 |
|
102-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 209.5
The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Minnesota is without starting PG Ricky Rubio, while Denver is without leading scorer Will Barton and starting SG Gary Harris.
Tom Thibodeau has changed the culture in Minnesota. He has them slowing it down and playing defense. The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game. They will control the tempo here playing at home. It's also worth noting that Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 8th in the early going.
Recent head-to-head history between these teams even before Thibodeau was in Minnesota shows that there's value with the UNDER. They have combined for 152, 212, 200, 173 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings, respectively. That's an average of 184.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
11-03-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves -3.5 |
Top |
102-99 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves really should be 3-0 right now. Instead they are 1-2 and undervalued. They blew a 17-point lead at Memphis and lost 98-102. They also blew an 18-point lead at Sacramento and lost 103-106.
But the Timberwolves showed a lot of fight in their home opener on Tuesday against Memphis. They beat the Grizzlies 116-80 after keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters. Look for more of the same here at home against the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets are also 1-2, and while I really like this team and have backed them with success against the spread, I like the Timberwolves more. The Nuggets' only win came on the road at New Orleans, which is 0-5 on the season. They lost at home to Portland and on the road to Toronto.
While the Timberwolves are without Ricky Rubio, I believe they are better with Kris Dunn, who had 10 points, six assists and five steals in 29 minutes in the win over Memphis. Denver is expected to be without Will Barton, who is their leading scorer at 18 points per game. Gary Harris is also expected to miss this game with a groin injury. Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.
|
11-02-16 |
Blazers v. Suns +3.5 |
|
115-118 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns +3.5
The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 this season and undervalued as a result. But they have played a brutal schedule to open the season, and they're really going to be hungry for their first win at home tonight.
The Suns have lost to the Kings, Thunder, Warriors and Clippers. They only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City in overtime as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs to really show what they are capable of.
The Portland Trail Blazers are in an awful spot here. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. And they just lost 104-127 to the Warriors last night, so they won't be nearly as excited to play the Suns here. This is clearly a hangover spot for the Blazers.
Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more over the past two seasons. Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more three straight games are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. Take the Suns Wednesday.
|
11-02-16 |
Bulls v. Celtics -3.5 |
Top |
100-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
20* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -3.5
The Boston Celtics want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 99-105 loss at Chicago on October 27th. They were playing the second of a back-to-back that night, so it wasn't a great spot for them.
Now the Celtics have had three days off in between games to prepare for the Bulls, who have only had one day off. That's a really nice rest advantage here, so the Celtics should be laying it all on the line tonight.
The Bulls come in overvalued due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season. But two of their wins have come at home, and the other was a road win over the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.
Chicago is 3-13 ATS off a road win over the past two seasons. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|
11-01-16 |
Jazz +10.5 v. Spurs |
|
106-91 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10.5
The Utah Jazz are simply catching too many points tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. We'll gladly take advantage and back them as double-digit underdogs here.
This is really the perfect storm. Utah is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS, while San Antonio is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. The betting public is all over the Spurs because of this and quick to fade the Jazz. That has created some artificial line value here with the road dog.
It's worth noting that the Spurs have covered two games by a half point as they won by 8 as 7.5-point favorites over the Kings, and by 7 as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat. It's also worth noting that both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are banged up right now, though both are expected to play.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against opponent after a game where they covered the spread are 162-100 (61.8%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Jazz Tuesday.
|
11-01-16 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 199.5 |
|
80-116 |
Win
|
102 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/T'Wolves UNDER 199.5
The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are already familiar with one another. That's because they both opened the season against each other on October 26th.
Memphis beat Minnesota 102-98 for 200 combined points, barely going over the 199-point total. Now we're seeing a similar total in the rematch, but points are going to be much harder to come by in the rematch. That's why I believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.
I've also checked out the pace stats, and these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 28th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game. Minnesota is 29th in pace at 94.3 possessions per game as Tom Thibodeau has them playing at a much slower tempo than last year.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Minnesota. Memphis is 53-33 UNDER in its last 86 road games after scoring 110 points or more in its previous game. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more three straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
11-01-16 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves -4.5 |
Top |
80-116 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
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20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for their first victory of the season. After going on the road for their first two games and losing a couple heartbreakers, now they will be playing their home opener in front of a hostile crowd. I look for a big performance from them.
And the Timberwolves really should have won their first two games. They held an early 17-point lead against Memphis before losing 98-102. They also squandered a big lead at Sacramento on Saturday. They gave up an 18-point lead in the first half and lost 103-106.
Adding to the motivation for the Timberwolves is that they want revenge on Memphis here. They were outscored by the Grizzlies 52-39 in the second half of the opener. The Grizzlies are 2-1 this season, but they lost their only road game 104-111 to the New York Knicks.
The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Minnesota. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|
10-31-16 |
Suns +10.5 v. Clippers |
|
98-116 |
Loss |
-102 |
12 h 25 m |
Show
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15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5
The Phoenix Suns are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have shown that in their past two games as they've hung right with two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.
The Suns lost 110-113 in overtime at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs on Friday, and then gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 100-106 home loss Sunday as 11.5-point dogs. But they're now 0-3 on the season, so they are extremely hungry for a victory right now, which should have them keeping this game close.
The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued here today after starting 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over the Blazers and the Jazz. They beat the Blazers by 8 as 2.5-point road favorites, and the Jazz by 13 as 7.5-point home favorites on Sunday. The Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Jazz were playing short-handed.
The Suns gave the Clippers trouble last season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. They won 114-105 and 118-104 in their two home meetings, and also only lost by 6 as 8.5-point road dogs in their three covers. I look for them to stay within double-digits here tonight and possibly pull off the upset.
The Clippers are 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons. Plays against home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Suns Monday.
|
10-31-16 |
Nuggets +7 v. Raptors |
|
102-105 |
Win
|
102 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
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15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Denver Nuggets +7
The Denver Nuggets aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers in the early going, so I'm going to continue to back them here as I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA. They are catching 7 points here against the Toronto Raptors, which I feel is too much.
The Nuggets opened the season with a 107-102 road win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs. They led by double-digits most the way and outrebounded the Pelicans 69-42, and won despite committing 24 turnovers. Then they lost to the Blazers 113-115 (OT) as 1.5-point home dogs. They shot just 38% from the field, but had a 72-57 edge on the boards, which kept them in the game.
And they had a 2-point lead in regulation with 15 seconds left and turned the ball over. They had a 2-point lead with four seconds left and missed two free throws. So, they should have won that game, and they'll come back motivated here.
I like to fade the Toronto Raptors in this spot. Their last game came at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 91-94 loss. After facing the defending champs last game, I don't foresee them being nearly as motivated to face the Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets won both meetings with the Raptors as underdogs last season. They won 106-105 as 10-point road dogs, and 112-93 as 4.5-point home dogs. Denver is 10-1 ATS off two straight games where they outrebounded their opponent by 15 or more. The Nuggets are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Denver is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Nuggets Monday.
|
10-30-16 |
Warriors v. Suns +12 |
|
106-100 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
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15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12
It's no surprise that the Golden State Warriors have opened 2016-17 way overvalued with the addition of Kevin Durant. That has proven to be the case as they are 0-2 ATS.
They lost 100-129 at home to San Antonio as 8-point favorites, and failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites in a 122-114 road win over the Pelicans. Now they are once again overvalued here as they're being asked to lay a whopping 12 points on the road to the Suns.
Phoenix is a team I'm going to be on early and often because they are undervalued. The Suns played poorly in their opener, a 94-113 loss to the Kings, which has only added to their value. But they took the Thunder to overtime on the road last time out as 7.5-point dogs and covered in a 110-113 loss. Now they'll be up for this game against the two-time defending Western Conference champs.
The Suns played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, losing by 8 as 16-point home dogs and by 7 as 19-point road dogs. Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.
Plays against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Suns Sunday.
|
10-30-16 |
Jazz +7.5 v. Clippers |
|
75-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Utah +7.5
The Utah Jazz are showing great value here as 7.5-point road dogs to the Los Angeles Clippers. They are clearly undervlaued right now after opening the season 0-2 against the spread.
They blew a fourth quarter lead in their opener and lost 104-113 as 5.5-point road dogs to the Blazers. They also nearly blew a double-digit lead late in a 96-89 home win over the Lakers, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers now after winning 114-106 at Portland as 2.5-point road favorites. But the Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back in that game and were clearly in a tough spot, and the Clippers gave a spirited effort as they wanted revenge from losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last year.
The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in Sunday games over the last two seasons. The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest. The Jazz are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Utah is simply catching too many points here. Take the Jazz Sunday.
|
10-29-16 |
Blazers v. Nuggets -2 |
Top |
115-113 |
Loss |
-103 |
14 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2
I backed the Nuggets with success in their 107-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their opener on Wednesday night. I'll come back with them here as they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have beaten the Jazz but lost to the Clippers at home. Now they'll be on their first road game.
The Nuggets have stockpiled talent and will prove to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting. These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.
But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him. He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket. Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop. Both are above-average passers.
Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season. Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year. Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy. Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.
The Nuggets controlled the game against the Pelicans in the opener as they led basically the entire way. What was so impressive about that win was the fact that they committed 24 turnovers compared to 11 for the Pelicans, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout. The Nuggets also had a 69-42 edge in rebounds, and they will outrebound most of their opponents this season because they are so strong inside. And they have a lot of length at all positions. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|
10-28-16 |
Suns +10 v. Thunder |
Top |
110-113 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +10
I still believe the Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their ugly performance in their opener. But that 94-113 home loss to Sacramento has only added to their value here against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they are catching double-digits.
The Thunder have no business being double-digit favorites after losing Kevin Durant this offseason. They barely survived in a 103-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their opener. Their options are very limited on offense now, and I don't foresee them putting away the Suns by double-digits here.
Phoenix has one of the best guard trios in the NBA in Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. The Suns didn't get off to a good start against the Kings as they trailed 57-38 at half, but their depth really showed as the second unit was able to cut the lead to 10 in the third quarter, though that was as close as they would get. Veteran starters in Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and company will look for a big bounce-back performance here.
The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss. The Suns are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Suns Friday.
|
10-27-16 |
Spurs v. Kings +8.5 |
|
102-94 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +8.5
The Sacramento Kings shot the lights out in the preseason, and it certainly carried over into their regular season opener last night against the Phoenix Suns. They won 113-94 and shot 51.2% from the field. Now the fans will come out excited for their home opener Thursday night against the San Antonio Spurs.
Dave Joerger, the former Grizzlies' coach, is working his magic for the Kings this season. DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 13 boards in only 24 minutes last night. Rudy Gay had 22 points, and newcomers Matt Barnes (14) and Garrett Temple (12) both had solid games as well. This is clearly a better roster than the Kings are getting credit for.
I love fading the San Antonio Spurs in this spot. They are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night in their opener. They killed the Warriors on the boards, but that won't be the case against the Kings. And the Spurs certainly won't be up for the Kings like they were against the Warriors.
The Kings will be unveiling their new $557 million, 17,500-seat Golden 1 Center arena in the city's downtown area. Look for them to play with added incentive tonight to please their home fans, which makes me much less concerned that they are playing the second of a back-to-back here, especially since they didn't need their starters to play big minutes last night against Phoenix. Roll with the Kings Thursday.
|
10-26-16 |
Kings v. Suns -2.5 |
Top |
113-94 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They suffered a rash of injuries last season that led to a 23-win campaign, but now most of those players gained valuable experience, and now they enter 2016-17 healthy.
Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight both missed significant time last season, but now they are ready to go to start the season. Their injuries allowed Devin Booker to flourish. He became the fourth-youngest player to score 1,000 points in a season. Now he's the starting shooting guard and he's still shy of 20 yards of age, and he finished 5th in the preseason in scoring at 19.6 points per game.
The Suns also added veterans Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa this offseason. P.J. Tucker has been cleared to play and will play a big role off the bench. T.J. Warren, coming off season-ending foot surgery, will start at forward with Dudley and Tyson Chandler at center.
The Sacramento Kings still have the same cancerous nucleus of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. And Sacramento will start the season without starting point guard Darren Collison, who begins his eight-game suspension due to domestic battery. That means journeyman Ty Lawson will start at point for the Kings. Lawson is coming off two poor seasons and two DUI arrests in 2015. This is simply a team in turmoil right now that we'll look to fade early and often. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|
10-26-16 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 199.5 |
|
98-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 199.5
Tom Thibodeau was a great hire for the Timberwolves and will work wonders for them as soon as this season. His influence on the defensive side of the ball has already been apparent in the preseason.
The Timberwolves played seven preaseson games, and only allowed more than 100 points once. They gave up an average of 94.6 points per game in the preseason, which is a huge improvement after finishing as one of the league's worst defensive teams last season. Thibodeau's impact is the sole reason for that.
The Memphis Grizzlies are still an offensively-challenged outfit. They run their offense through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who are two solid big men. But they like to slow it down. I like the addition of Chandler Parsons to upgrade their shooting, but he's currently injured and unavailable for the opener.
There is a hidden angle here that should also help the UNDER. The Timberwolves and Grizzlies just faced each other one week ago today. The Timberwolves won that game 101-94 at home for 195 combined points. These teams are now familiar with each other after playing a week ago, which certainly favors the defenses.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 126-66 (65.6%) since 1996. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
10-26-16 |
Nuggets +2 v. Pelicans |
|
107-102 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2
The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. New head coach Mike Malone steps into a great situation as the Nuggets have stockpiled talent, and now that talent should shine through this season as the Nuggets make a run at the playoffs.
Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting. These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued. But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him. He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket. Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop. Both are above-average passers.
Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season. Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year. Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy. Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.
New Orleans won just 30 games last year thanks to a boat load of injuries. Their players missed a combined 351 games, forcing coach Alvin Gentry to use 42 starting lineup combinations. And unfortunately for Gentry, injuries continue to be a problem starting the season. The Pelicans went just 1-5 in the preseason.
Anthony Davis suffered an ankle injury on October 12, but returned for the preseason finale on Friday. He is scheduled to start, but won't be 100%. Tyreke Evans (knee) won't return until December, forward Quintin Pondexter (knee) is out indefinitely, and starting PG Jrue Holiday is caring for his ill wife Lauren, and there's no timetable for his return.
Now the Pelicans' starting lineup looks awful without those three. They will be starting Tim Frazier at point guard, E'Twaun Moore at shooting guard, Solomon Hill at small forward, Davis at power forward and Omer Asik at center. This isn't a lineup that's going to win a lot of games in the early going. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.
|
10-25-16 |
Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 206 |
|
88-117 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* 2016 NBA Season Opener on Knicks/Cavs UNDER 206
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the season opener between the Cleveland Cavs and New York Knicks. I don't expect either offense to be hitting on all cylinders in this contest, especially the Knicks.
The Knicks have had a lot of turnover this offseason. They are relying on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, their two biggest signings, to play big minutes. But those two both missed most of the preseason, Noah with an injury and Rose with legal troubles. They will be out of sync for sure, especially trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's offense on the fly.
Recent head-to-head history really has me liking the UNDER as well. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 200, 175, 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points. That's an average of 182.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.
New York is 30-15 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 or more points over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 32-14 to the UNDER against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
06-19-16 |
Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 |
Top |
93-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* Cavs/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5
Only 10 teams in NBA history have come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a playoff series. No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. I expect that to hold up tonight as the Warriors win Game 7 and cap off a historic season.
The Warriors are 50-4 at home this season. Yes, they lost their last home game to the Cavs, but that was a rarity and everything went Cleveland's way. The Warriors were without Draymond Green for that game, otherwise this series would probably be over.
The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six Sunday games. The Warriors are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Golden State is 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Bet the Warriors Sunday.
|
06-16-16 |
Warriors +2 v. Cavs |
Top |
101-115 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Cavs Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2
The Golden State Warriors will close out this series in six games just as they did last year. They come in highly motivated to get the job done, especially now that they have their leader in Draymond Green back in the lineup.
Everything had to go right for the Cavs to steal Game 5 in Golden State. It started with the unwarranted suspension of Green, who may be the Warriors' most important player. Then Andrew Bogut went out with an injury in the 3rd quarter. Plus, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James became the first duo to top 41 points on the same team in NBA Finals history.
With Green back, the Warriors will not only be better defensively in stopping James and company, they'll also be better offensively. In fact, the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points when Green has played center in this series. Golden State will be forced to use their "Death Lineup", which has been the best lineup in the NBA all season, and it will lead them to victory.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Golden State is a sensational 14-1 straight up following a loss this season, including playoffs. It simply does not lose consecutive games. Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Thursday.
|
06-13-16 |
Cavs +6 v. Warriors |
Top |
112-97 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in must-win mode now with their season on the line. They caught a huge break with the suspension of Draymond Green in Game 5, and I look for them to take advantage and give the Warriors a run for their money.
The Cavaliers have been outscored by 51 points when Green has played center in this series. That is known as their "Death Lineup", which is the most effective lineup in the NBA. Without it the Warriors are extremely vulnerable. They have a deep bench, but nobody can replace what Green brings to this team.
Cleveland is 21-12 ATS versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game this season. The Cavs are 17-8 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams who score 103-plus points per game this year. Cleveland is 19-9 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Monday.
|
06-10-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -2 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland -2
The Cleveland Cavaliers proved their naysayers wrong with an emphatic 30-point victory in Game 3. Now they have the belief that they can beat the Warriors, and they will ride that wave into a Game 4 victory again tonight to even the series.
Home-court advantage has been huge for the Cavaliers all season. They are now 41-8 at home on the year and a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They have won seven of their eight playoff home games by 11 points or more, and they are winning at home in the postseason by an average of over 21 points per game.
The Warriors have certainly been vulnerable on the road in these playoffs, especially here of late. They are just 2-4 in their last six playoff road games with their two wins only coming by 7 points apiece. They have actually been outscored by an average of 13.3 points per game in their last six playoff road games.
Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games overall. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday.
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