15* Seahawks/Broncos Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle -2.5

One look at the numbers these teams have produced this season and it's easy to see the Seattle Seahawks are the superior team despite the identical 3-2 records coming into this one.  And I like the fact that the Seahawks are coming off a loss so they will be highly motivated on this short week, while the Broncos are coming off a win and won't be playing with as much urgency as a result.

Seattle could easily be 5-0.  They gift-wrapped the win to the 49ers last week with four turnovers, including one right before half when they were just trying to run out the clock on a fumble in their own end zone in a 3-point loss.  They lost by 2 to the Commanders and were -3 in turnovers while outgaining Washington by 179 yards.

Seattle has elite numbers this season.  The Seahawks are averaging 328 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play while playing a couple games with backup QB Drew Lock.  They are allowing 251.2 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play with the best defense in the NFL.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play.

Let's compare that to the Broncos.  Denver's offense is broken averaging 269 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  Its defense is also overrated allowing 347.4 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The Broncos are getting outgained by 78.4 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

The Broncos could easily be 0-5, but their luck in close games and especially late in games has continued this season.  They lost by 21 at Kansas City and by 10 at San Francisco.  They overcame a 10-point deficit in the 2H to beat Jacksonville and a 16-point deficit in the 2H to beat the Rams at home.  Then last week, they were life and death with the Chargers trailing by 7 in the 4th quarter.  They scored the final 13 points and won 23-17.

While the Broncos were life and death with the short-handed Chargers, the Seahawks were up by 21 on the Chargers the previous week before taking their foot off the gas.  The Seahawks also played the 49ers much tougher than the Broncos did for a couple of common opponents.  No matter how you slice it, it's easy to see the Seahawks are the better team, and if they had the better record like they should this line would not be -2.5.  It would be higher.

And while the Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Broncos have some injuries in their secondary that the Seahawks will be able to exploit.  They just lost SS Hufanga (23 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) to injury last week and he is the leader of their defense.  They remain without one of the best CB's in the league in Pat Surtain.  And Riley Moss is questionable after missing last week, and he is one of the worst CB's in the league even if he does play.  The Seahawks have had trouble running the ball, but they are throwing it on everyone and will be able to exploit this terrible Denver secondary.

Denver's offense has failed to reach 300 yards in four of its five games this season.  Sean Payton took over play-calling duties last week and proved it wasn't a play-caller problem, it was a Bo Nix and a terrible offense problem.  The Chargers held the Broncos to 224 total yards.  The Rams held them to 257 yards and outgained them by 225 yards.  The Chiefs held them to 176 yards.  It's a bad, bad offense and one that cannot be trusted to keep up with Seattle tonight.  

The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games following a home game.  Seattle has had no problem bouncing back from playing the 49ers, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games the week after facing San Francisco.  Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 road games under Mike McDonald.  Sam Arnold is 13-0 SU in against AFC opponents over the last three seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

20* Bills/Rams MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles -2.5

The Rams having a 2-2 record at .500 this season has them grossly undervalued.  They came into the season as Super Bowl favorites, and there's nothing I've seen in the number that would suggest they shouldn't still be the favorite despite the 2-2 record.  They are an elite team, and it will show tonight against a perceived elite team in the Bills that aren't as good as their 3-1 record.

The Rams have outgained their last three opponents by 767 net yards, which is the 5th-highest mark in NFL history.  They rank 1st in total defense at 247.5 yards per game and 1st at 4.3 yard per play allowed.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 175.5 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play on the season, which are the best marks in the NFL.  They are elite, no question about it.

They have been doing this despite being without Puka Nacua for two games and Aaron Donald for two games, plus Myles Garrett for three games.  They have both Nacua and Donald back healthy this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and in their current state the best team in the NFL in my opinion.

The Bills have an elite offense with Josh Allen.  But they are without Josh Palmer and Tyrell Shavers, and fellow WR DJ Moore is questionable to play tonight.  Allen was noticeably limping after the 29-26 home loss to the Patriots last week in which they were outgained by 55 yards.  They were held to their fewer rushing yards (91) in two years by the Patriots, who were without several key defenders.  Allen didn't want to run like he usually does.  They only outgained the Chargers by 2 yards the week prior and were life and death with them, and the Chargers are 0-5 this season.

But the biggest concern for the Bills is their defense, which allowed 405 total yards to a Patriots team that was without three of their top four receivers.  Drake Maye had been terrible leading up to that game.  This is a bad, bad Bills defense and it's by far the worst unit on the field in this game.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.  The Rams will be able to name their number on this Buffalo defense, which also allowed 31 points to Houston, 31 to Detroit and then 29 to New England.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Bills/Rams MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 53.5

The Buffalo Bills are a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense but one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They have gone 3-1 OVER in all games this season going for 67 combined points with the Texans, 72 with the Lions and 55 with the Patriots.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving the Bills right now.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.8 points per game and 2nd at 6.7 yards per play.  But they rank 25th in scoring defense allowing 26.8 points per game and 25th in total defense at 372.2 yards per game.  Most concerning was giving up 29 points and 405 total yards to the Patriots last week, who were without three of their top four receivers.  But they also allowed 31 points to the Texans and 31 to the Lions.

The Rams will be far and away the best offense they have faced this season.  The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yard per play.  The Rams now have Puka Nacua back on offense and are fully healthy.  They are going to hang a big number on this suspect Bills defense to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.

The Rams have benefited defensively from getting to face three poor offenses in the Eagles, the Broncos and the Giants the last three week.  That was the game the Giants lost Jaxson Dart early and had to go with Jameis Winston the rest of the way.  The Eagles were without all of their top playmakers including Smith and Barkley, and the Broncos just look broken offensively but still scored 30 points on the Rams.  This Buffalo offense is the best unit the Rams will have faced since allowing 27 points to the 49ers.

The Rams will easily get into the 30's in this game and I wouldn't be surprised if they get into the 40's.  The Bills will get into the upper-20's if not the 30's as well.  The last time these teams played the Rams won 44-42 at home in 2024 for 86 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Ravens/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3

I grabbed the Falcons +3 as soon as the lines came out after they beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  I expected them to take money and for Lamar Jackson to eventually be ruled out, and that's precisely what happened.  This is an example of why it's great to have a long-term package because you get the plays as soon as I release them.  I would still play the Falcons up to -3 tonight.

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers two weeks ago in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I stated the same thing and backed them again at +3 against the Saints, and they proceeded to deliver with a 45-24 victory.  I think I was right on this call and it has proven to be the case, and I'm riding it again this week.

Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

This Atlanta defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich lost his wife in the offseason and this defense has rallied around him.  Despite some injuries, the Falcons have had one of the best pressure rates in the NFL.  Both Tyler Shough and Jordan Love were under duress for the majority of the games.

The Ravens will go with backup QB Tyler Huntley, and the drop off from Lamar Jackson to him is one of the biggest in the NFL.  He is capable of managing an offense, but the Ravens will be much less explosive than they have been.  Also, they are down to a 3rd-string center due to injuries, which is why they traded with the Eagles for a center last week, but Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol and will not play.  

The Ravens will also be without their best pass rusher on defense in LB Trey Hendrickson, who they gave a pile of money in the offseason.  Their defense has been sub-par this season allowing 24.0 points per game.  They allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil, and the Falcons have a similarly explosive offense.  I'm not worried about the Falcons being on a short week after playing on MNF because they played the Thursday prior and had 3 extra days off as a result.  Plus, they blew out their last two opponents and were able to rest starters late.  

The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in primetime as a head coach since 2021.  The Ravens are 82-37 SU with Lamar Jackson, and 10-17 SU with all other QB's starting in his career.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Ravens/Falcons NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5

Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough.  Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

The Falcons will continue to thrive offensively at home this week against a mediocre Baltimore defense that is allowing 24.0 points per game this season.  The Ravens allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil two weeks ago and it should have been more as the Cowboys failed from the 1-yard line at the end.  And they are without arguably their most important defensive player in LB Trey Hendrickson, their best pass rusher who will be out again this week.

This total is only being set this low because Lamar Jackson is out for the Ravens, otherwise this total would be in the 50's.  That's a big adjustment down for backup QB Tyler Huntley, who has proven he can lead this offense for years.  I like the fact that WR Zay Flowers is back healthy, and he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL.  Short passes to him can turn into explosives in a hurry and they will.  The Ravens are scoring 29.0 points per game, averaging 395.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.

This Atlanta defense has held up reasonably well despite some injuries, but the injuries continue to pile up and have gotten even worse this week.  They are allowing 23.0 points per game this season.  But they lost arguably their best pass rusher in LB Da'Darius Smith to a concussion last week and he has been ruled out.  They are without their best CB in AJ Terrell.  Fellow starting LB's Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are questionable for this one as well.  

I expect the Falcons to get into the 30's and for the Ravens to be able to do enough against this banged up Atlanta D to easily get the OVER 43.5 here, which is just below a big key number of 44.  This game will be played on a fast track indoors in Atlanta, too.  Kevin Stefanski is 6-0 OVER in primetime games over the last four seasons, going over the total by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 53.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets and 58 with the Panthers, topping this 53.5-point total every week.

The Lions are fully health on offense and thriving.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.8 points per game, 6th in total offense at 389.2 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play.  And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 31.8 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 423.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without five key players in the secondary in Branch, Joseph, Harper, Maddox and Ya-Sin and teams have been able to throw all over them.

Jacoby Brissett and this Arizona offense have shown they can keep up in a shootout.  They did so the last two weeks with a 36-30 loss to the 49ers that saw 66 combined points, and a 36-24 loss to the Giants that saw 60 combined points.  Both games were outdoors, too.  Now Brissett and company are back in a dome and he will have his full compliment of weapons available outside the mystery of Marvin Harrison Jr, who has been unproductive this season anyway.  They might be better off getting the distraction that comes with him off the field.

This Arizona defense is trash again this season.  The Cardinals rank 29th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game, 24th at 351.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  They have some key injuries in the secondary without CB Will Johnson and S Andrew Wingard, plus DT Walter Nolen is questionable.  They have allowed 30-plus points in three consecutive weeks with two of those coming against backup QB's in Drew Lock of the Seahawks and Jameis Winson of the Giants.  I expect them to give up 30-plus again to the Lions, but to also be able to keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers ML -135

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a tough loss to Cleveland last Thursday on the road.  Sadly, they always lose to the Browns on the road, and the Browns are certainly better than most give them credit for.  But now the Steelers are motivated off that loss, plus on extra rest after playing last Thursday which has given them more time to get healthy.

The Colts are traveling back from London so it will be a short week for them.  They beat the Commanders 30-13 in one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Commanders lost QB Marcus Mariota in that game or it would have been a different story, instead having to turn to a rookie.  Still, the Commanders outgained the Colts by 60 yards and 1.4 yards per play for the game.  The Colts were held to a putrid 257 yards and 4.0 yards per play.

In fact, the Colts are very close to being 0-4 instead of 2-2.  They escaped with a last-second home win over the Texans the week prior, and they benefited from Washington being down to a 3rd-string QB.  In their two losses, they were dominated getting outgained by 196 yards by the Chiefs and 255 yards by the Ravens.  They have some of the worst numbers in the NFL overall.

The Colts are broken offensively averaging just 284.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They are poor defensively, allowing 392.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 108 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  Daniel Jones is a shell of his former self coming back from injury not using his legs at all with just 21 rushing yards on the season.  His weapons leave a lot to be desired without Alec Pierce, Ashton Dullin and Darius Slayton due to injury, while Keenan Allen is playing through injury.  The defense is without DE Key, LB Carlies and CB Ward is questionable.  CB Gardner has been one of the worst at his position in the league after the blockbuster trade for him last season.

The Steelers are 2-0 at home this season beating the Bengals and Falcons.  In their last two games, their offense has really started to show what it is capable of and will likely be the best unit on the field.  They had 30 points, 411 yards and 7.2 yards per play against the Bengals and 24 points, 361 yards and 6.1 yards per play agains the Browns.  This is a usual solid Pittsburgh defense holding opponents to 21.8 points per game on the season.

The Steelers are 17-1 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Colts.  The only QB to win in Pittsburgh was Peyton Manning.  McCarthy and Rodgers as a duo are 44-21-3 ATS at home since 2010.  Daniel Jones is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in his career against the Steelers.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Dolphins UNDER 44

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts UNDER team. They have the worst offense in the NFL scoring just 11.5 points per game.  But their defense is an underrated unit that plays as hard as anyone.  They held the Chiefs to 24 points two weeks ago and the Vikings to 15 points last week.  I think they can hold the Bengals in check enough to keep this UNDER the total.

The Bengals have struggled on offense this season and were just held to 17 points by the Jaguars last week.  A big reason for the struggles was a concussion suffered by Jamar Chase, and then fellow WR Tee Higgins leaving late with an adductor injury.  Both are expected to play today but will likely be limited.  Fellow WR Colbie Young is questionable, and WR Andrei Iosivas is on IR.  Burrow is seriously lacking weapons heading into this one.

But why I'm excited about the Bengals this season is the fact that it looks like they have their best defense in years with the upgrades they made in the offseason, including bringing in DT Dexter Lawrence.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game through four games.  I expect them to come close to shutting out the Dolphins.

The Malik Willis contract looks terrible now, but in his defense he has no weapons to work with.  The Dolphins lost their star RB Achane a few weeks ago to a season-ending injury.  Now their best WR in Caleb Douglas is out this week.  The Dolphins have to try and go more ball control offense and eat up the playclock to be competitive, which is something defensive-minded head coach Jeff Hafley is familiar with.  

It kept them competitive in a 24-10 loss and 34 combined points with the Chiefs two weeks ago, and in a 15-10 loss and 25 combined points with the Vikings last week.  It will be a similar script this week against the Bengals, who will likely be in for more of a battle than they bargained for with their limitations on offense right now due to injury.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 30.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.  They just scored 34 points on the Ravens and 34 on the Texans, two of the best defenses in the league.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.0 points per game, 380.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season despite facing three poor offenses in the Giants, Commanders and Texans.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. last week.

Dak Prescott is 30-11 OVER in all home games since 2020, going over the total by an average of 9.3 points per game.  In his career at home, Prescott is 49-26 OVER.  The Cowboys are 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season, and 17-4 OVER since the start of last season.  They went for 48 combined points with the Giants, 57 with Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, 65 with the Ravens and 64 with the Texans in their first four games this season.  This total of 47 is clearly too short for a game involving the Cowboys, which needs totals in the 50's and even those aren't high enough more times than not.

The reason this total is lower is because the Bucs are starting a rookie QB in Jalon Daniels.  But he held his own in his first start, going 19-of-27 passing for 148 yards with one TD and two INT, while also rushing for 55 yards on eight carries in their home loss to the Packers last week.  Daniels will be much more comfortable in his 2nd start, and his dual-threat ability will be key in getting away from these Dallas pass rushers and making big plays down the field.

The Bucs have a fully healthy offensive line and a healthy group of skill players for Daniels to work without outside No. 3 WR Jalen McMillan.  He will be much more comfortable working with these guys for a 2nd week.  And it's not like Baker Mayfield was playing well prior to getting injured.  In fact, he was in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career with a 2-to-2 TD/INT ratio while taking 13 sacks and averaging just 6.4 per attempt.  He was consistently overthrowing wide open receivers down the field.  It's not as big of a drop off to Daniels as most anticipate.

The offense has also played four straight outdoor games with three at home and one in Cincinnati, a 33-27 loss that saw 60 combined points.  And that was back in Week 1 when the Bengals usually struggle offensively out of the gate.  But the other three offenses they faced are three of the worst in the NFL in the Browns, Vikings and Packers.  This Dallas offense is by far the best unit it will have faced this season, and this Dallas defense is also by far the worst unit it will have faced this season.  And it's indoors in perfect conditions for a shootout.  I expect the Cowboys to get into the 30's and the Bucs to get into the 20's in this one to sail OVER this 47-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Falcons/Saints ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 48

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the total enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

The Saints are a tired team.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.  This New Orleans offense is solid with QB Tyler Shough and proven weapons in Olave, Johnson and Vele leading them to 27.0 points per game and 382.7 yards per game through three weeks.  But the defense is in shambles right now.

The Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game against. New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  The Saints will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Falcons/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the line enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

While the Falcons have a massive rest advantage here playing last Thursday, the Saints are a tired team with three straight games that went down to the wire.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.

While the Falcons are one of the healthiest, freshest teams in the NFL, the Saints are starting to see injuries pile up.  They are without two starting offensive linemen on the left side of their line, including their best in LT Kelvin Banks Jr.  WR Jordyn Tyson remains on IR.  RB Travis Etienne who they just gave big money to this offense just went on IR after suffering an injury against the Raiders.  That leave she washed up Alvin Kamara to get the bulk of the reps at RB.

Defensively, the Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game to lead the Falcons to victory against a New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Broncos/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 46.5

The 49ers have the best offense in the NFL this season.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game, averaging 399.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Kyle Shanahan has Brock Purdy as a favorite to win the MVP, and they are doing it despite cluster injuries at the WR position.  They are just so good at scheming guys open no matter who is on the field.

But what makes the 49ers an OVER team right now is all their injuries on defense.  They are without as many as six defensive linemen this week in Bosa, Collins, Williams, West, Okuayinonu and Thompson Jr.  DE Keion White, LB Greenlaw and LB Dugger are three starters who are all questionable for the 49ers as well.

All these defensive injuries forced the 49ers to win a 36-30 shootout with the Cardinals last week that saw 66 combined points.  And now the Broncos are going to bring their solid offense into Santa Clara this week to take advantage of this suspect San Francisco defense.  The Broncos and 49ers will both get their points in this one, and this 46.5-point total is too short.

When the Broncos put their foot on the gas offensively, they are elite.  They came back from 16-0 down to beat the Rams 30-26 last week for 56 combined points.  They trailed 13-3 in the 2H against the Jaguars but scored the final 17 points to win that game.  Which ever offense is down is going to come back, and this should be a back and forth game from the jump.  The Broncos actually have playmakers for Bo Nix led by the addition of Waddle, and he is getting more and more comfortable each week after a slow start to the season returning from injury.

The Broncos had elite defensive numbers last season but they also benefited from an easy schedule.  Well, that defense has been exposed by the Chiefs, Jaguars and Rams.  The Broncos are allowing a whopping 380.7 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They clearly miss Jonathan Cooper, their best pass rusher who remains out.  And there are holes all over the secondary, most notably with teams targeting CB Riley Moss.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  After upsetting the Chargers 26-14 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals played two of the best teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Seahawks and 49ers.  They let go of the rope in the 2H after being tied 7-7 with the Seahawks at halftime.  They fought hard but lost 36-30 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 49ers.

Now the Cardinals take a big step down in class here against the Giants.  It's an overrated Giants team that is off to a surprising 2-1 start.  They showed what they were capable of when fully healthy in Week 1 beating the Cowboys 28-20 at home.  But then they lost QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2 and were blown out 28-6 by the Rams.  And last week they played a bottom 3 team in the NFL in the Titans and got a game-winning INT in the end zone to preserve a 12-7 victory.

This is where all the injuries catch up to the Giants.  Backup QB Jameis Winston looks like a shell of his former self.  They built this offense around the dual-threat ability of Dart, but Winston is not that.  Winston is completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 per attempt this season.  The Giants suffered a big blow with the loss of LB Brian Burns, their best overall defender and their best pass rusher.

The Giants have terrible numbers this season.  They are averaging 271.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play on offense, and allowing 329.0 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 57.7 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  It's only going to get worse moving forward in their current state with all these injuries.

The Cardinals have a much more talented roster than they get credit for.  And that has shown this season, and thankfully after being injury-ravaged last year, they are currently one of the most healthy teams in the NFL.  All 11 starters are healthy on offense.  Nine starters are healthy on defense with the lone exception being CB Will Johnson, while DE Josh Sweat is questionable.

The Cardinals are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games against NFC East opponents, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven against this division.  They tend to play much better when they step outside the NFC West, which is far and away the best division in football.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Rams/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Rams are going to come out angry with a point to prove on Sunday.  They have opened 1-2 this season after coming into the year as the Super Bowl favorites.  They also want revenge from blowing a 26-7 lead to the Eagles last year and losing after having their potential game-winning FG at the buzzer blocked.

The Rams still look like the best team in the NFL in my opinion despite their record.  Their numbers are elite, averaging 417.7 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense while allowing just 272.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 145 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play this season.

Last week's fluke loss to the Broncos has them undervalued.  They outgained the Broncos 482 to 257, or by 225 yards.  The Broncos got every call down the stretch and overcame at 16-0 halftime deficit thanks to some help from the refs.  When the Rams get up big again this week, they will not take their foot off the gas.

After sitting out the last two weeks, Puka Nacua is expected back in the lineup to give Matthew Stafford the comfort he needs.  This is the best offense in the NFL in their current state with as healthy as they are on that side of the ball right now.  And the defense is still balling out even without Donald and Garrett.  It's one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, and they do get S Kinchens back this week.

The Eagles are big frauds.  They are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS and easily could have lost all three games.  They needed to stop a 2-point conversion to preserve their 24-22 win over the lowly Commanders in Week 1.  They needed a late TD to beat the lowly Titans 24-20 on the road.  And they just lost to Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday Night Football 27-7 and were thoroughly outplayed throughout.

Now the Eagles are on a short week and the injury report is gloomy for them.  An already hapless offense that was held to 7 points by the Bears last week just got even worse.  After losing AJ Brown in the offseason, now the Eagles will be without star WR DeVonta Smith this week with a hamstring injury.  They are also without TE Dallas Goedert and WR Hollywood Brown.  Jalen Hurts will be throwing the ball to Wicks, Lemon and several other guys you've never heard of before.  This offense has no chance of keeping pace with the Rams.

The Eagles have a great defense on paper, but unfortunately it has not looked nearly as good on the field.  Allowing 22 points to Washington, 20 to the Titans and 27 to the Bears to this point is very poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Bears went for 375 yards on them with Keenum under center.  Now the Eagles are down two starters this week in LB Zack Baun and SS Marcus Epps.  You can run on the Eagles as they are allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game.  The Rams will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston -2.5

The Texans are the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start.  They have done it twice, including last season.  They have been here before and they will not panic, but they will be playing with a greater sense of urgency this week to get their first win.  They could easily be 3-0 or 2-1 instead when you look at the results.

The Texans were only outgained by 28 yards by the Bills but were -2 in turnovers in a 36-31 home loss in Week 1.  They dropped what would have been the game-winning INT.  In Week 2, they actually outgained the Bengals by 107 yards but lost 20-6.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  And last week they fought back to take a lead, only to lose on a last-second FG 19-17 at Indianapolis.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Texans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Texans fit that bill.

But the biggest reason I'm on the Texans is their injury report compared to that of Dallas.  The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the Week 1 loss to the Bills.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They have played three very good offenses in the Bills, Bengals and Colts and have held them to 325.3 yards per game.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week after not being able to get the game-winning stop in the losses to the Bills and Colts giving up a lead in the final seconds of both.

The Cowboys have a knack for losing close games.  They found a way to lose to the Ravens in Brazil at the buzzer last week, and now this is a brutal spot for them.  It's the type of loss that can beat them twice.  Now they'll be on the road for a second consecutive week after the long flight back from Brazil.  I don't expect it to go well for them, especially with a motivated Houston team waiting for them.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Texans OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 29.3 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  They got in a 36-31 shootout in Week 1 with the Bills for 67 combined points.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the loss.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys this week.

The Texans have regressed defensively this season and are no longer the best defense in the NFL.  A big reason is the injuries at LB with Al-Shaair and his backup in Ossai.  They are also without another starting LB in To'oTo'o, and fellow starting LB Jake Hansen is questionable.  There is a clear hole in the middle of their defense that the Cowboys can exploit.

Dak Prescott is 6-0 OVER n his last six starts against AFC opponents.  The Cowboys are 9-2 OVER in indoor games over the last two seasons and going over the total by an avreage of 9.7 points per game.  Any Dallas total in the 40's indoors is too low.  They just had a 53.5-point total with the Ravens last week after a 51.5-point total with the Commanders the week prior.  This total of 47.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys NFL Brazil ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

This is a good 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  They are coming off one of their usual baffling upset home losses to the Saints last week in a 24-17 loss as 8.5-point favorites.  They had no business losing that game, but they found a way.

After blasting the Colts 41-23 in the opener and outgaining them by 255 yards, they fell asleep at the wheel last week.  They still outgained the Saints by 14 yards and 1.0 yards per play.  In fact, their numbers are elite this season.  They are averaging 409 yards per game and 7.1 per play on offense, and allowing 274.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.

The Cowboys are fortunate to be 1-1.  They lost to the Giants 28-20 in Week 1 and were outgained by 150 yards.  They beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 2 in a misleading win.  They were outgianed by 57 yards by the Commanders, who lost starting QB Jayden Daniels on the final play of the 2Q when they were going into to score to tie it 17-17.  Even Marcus Mariota moved the ball at will on this awful Dallas defense.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  They are getting outgained by 103.5 yards per game.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

Jesse Minter is an elite defensive mind and has made this Baltimore defense even better.  Just look at what the Chargers are doing defensively without him, allowing 26 points to the Cardinals and 26 more to the Raiders without Brock Bowers thus far.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy defensively right now and will do enough to slow down Dak and this Dallas offense.  

Lamar Jackson is 25-4 SU against the NFC in his career.  He is tough to prepare for and these NFC teams haven't been able to get it done.  The Cowboys won't be able to slow him down either, especially with the distractions and less prep time with a travel to Brazil.  But the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Ravens/Cowboys OVER 53

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 28.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  Even Marcus Mariota had success against them after taking over for an injury Jayden Daniels last week.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

The Ravens went off to 41 points and 506 yards against the Colts in Week 1.  Zay Flowers only played the first half and had 5 receptions for 150 yards in the win.  He sat out the 2H and sat out the game against the Saints last week.  He looked good in pregame warmups and could return this week.  But either way, this Baltimore offense is going to be able to name its number against this Dallas defense to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Cowboys will do enough to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Bucs +1.5

Teams that are 0-2 like the Bucs up against teams with at least one win have gone 43-22 ATS in Week 3 in their last 65 tries.  These teams like the Bucs play with desperation to avoid opening 0-3, and they tend to be undervalued after a poor start.  I think that's the case for the Bucs here as home underdogs to the Vikings.

The Bucs could easily be 2-0.  They turned the ball over 4 times that led to 24 points for the Bengals in a 33-27 loss on the road in Week 1.  They had another costly turnover in a 23-19 loss to the Browns in Week 2, blowing a double-digit lead in the 2H.  They are -4 in turnovers thus far, things that are easily correctable.

The Vikings are 2-0 but could easily be 0-2.  They beat the Packers in Week 1 despite getting outgained by 180 yards.  That was probably the most misleading final of the season.  They beat the Bears 9-3 in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 51 yards and benefitting from the poor weather and the injury to Caleb Williams.

Kyler Murray is back this week for the Vikings, but QB's returning from a concussion have been historically poor in their first game back.  They play more conservative than they normally would with the concussion in the back of their mind.  And Murray's legs are his biggest weapon as he has been a pretty inaccurate passer.  He won't be looking to run much in this game.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have everyone available on offense and that wasn't the case last year for Baker Mayfield, who consistently had to play down a few weapons and offensive linemen.  He has everyone healthy now and should thrive this week.  The defense is healthy outside of LB.  I fully expect a big effort from the Bucs here to get the outright win with the wrong team favored.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/49ers UNDER 48

I like the UNDER 48 in this division rivalry between the Cardinals and 49ers.  These were two of the most injury-ravaged defenses in the NFL last season.  Both are much healthier this season and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

The 49ers in particular have been elite defensively holding the Rams to 7 points and the Dolphins to 13.  And the Dolphins got their lone TD on a 77-yard bomb in the final seconds of garbage time in a blowout.  The 49ers had their backups in.

The Cardinals are allowing just 22.5 points per game to the Chargers and Seahawks.  They held the Seahawks to 7 points at halftime but let it get away in the 2H.  They finished with 40 combined points with the Chargers and 38 combined points with the Seahawks.  The 49ers finished with 34 combined points with the Rams and 48 combined points with the Dolphins.

The Cardinals managed just 151 yards and 3.4 yards per play against the Seahawks last week.  It won't get much easier for them offensively against the 49ers this week.  Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back, plus Raheem Morris getting the most out of this secondary has made the 49ers impressive defensively.  

The 49ers have managed to get by offensively but playing the Dolphins helps.  They have a ton of injuries at receiver and will be without Aiyuk, Stribling, Robinson, Pearsall and Kirk who are all on IR.  Mike Evans will play through his injury, and Deebo Samuel is a shell of his former self.  They signed Brandin Cooks off the street this week.  This offense will have problems being very explosive.  It will be a lot of methodical drives for the 49ers with a run-heavy scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Jaguars UNDER 46

The Patriots are a dead nuts UNDER team with an elite defense and a suspect offense.  That has played out this season with the Patriots losing 13-10 to the Seahawks in Week 1 for just 23 combined points, and beating the Steelers 20-3 in Week 2 with another 23 combined points.  This total of 46 is double that, and it's simply too high.

This New England offense has scored a total of 23 points in two games.  Their defense scored one of their TD's last week against the Steelers on a sack-fumble.  Drake Maye has been terrible with a 1-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  A big reason for his struggles is the injury to WR AJ Brown, their prized offseason acquisition.  He remains out, and what's left is one of the worst WR rooms in the league.

The Patriots are likely to keep going run-heavy with their duo of Stevenson and Henderson.  Well, they will be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who could hang their hat on stopping the run last year and brought almost everyone back on D.  They have been stopping the run thus far as well allowing 95.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

This Jacksonville defense held the Browns to 10 points in Week 1.  The Browns also scored their only TD in garbage time in the final minutes.  They held the Broncos to 20 points last week.  They will hold this New England offense in check, too.

The Jaguars do have a lot of talent on offense.  But I love the matchup for this New England defense.  Christian Gonzalez may be the best CB in the NFL and the Patriots will use him against Parker Washington as much as possible.  He shut down DK Metcalf last week and held JSN in check in Week 1.  Opposite him is another elite CB in Carlton Davis III, who has been upgraded to probable this week.  These corners will make life tough on these talented Jacksonville WR's, though Brian Thomas has been a major disappointment.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jets/Lions OVER 48

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Lions still have an elite offense scoring 31 points against the Saints and 31 against the Bills the first two weeks.  They get two starting offensive linemen back this week and are back to close to full strength up front.  This will be by far the best offense the Jets have faced this season.  The Lions will get their points as they always do in dome games to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  

The Lions are 31-12 OVER as home favorites over the last 10 seasons.  Geno Smith is 18-7 OVER in dome games in his career.  Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 21-8 OVER in home games with totals of less than 50 as a duo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Washington Commanders are completely broken.  They just lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to another dislocated elbow last week in a 37-20 loss to the Cowboys.  We are getting Marcus Mariota now, and he is one of the worst backups in the NFL.  But there's cluster injuries everywhere for the Commanders that will make it hard for them to be competitive at least this week against the defending champs.

The Commanders are without QB Daniels, TE Okonkwo, LT Tunsil and RG Cosmi on offense.  Those are their two best offensive linemen, and they have a Bottom 3 offensive line in their current state which will give Mariota almost zero chance of being successful.

The Commanders came into the season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  It has gotten worse due to injuries to green dot LB Frankie Luvu and their leader in the secondary in SS Nick Cross.  They allowed 37 points to the Cowboys last week, and the Seahawks will get whatever they want offensively this week.

The Seahawks were able to beat the Patriots 13-10 in Week 1 despite losing Sam Darnold in the 1Q and being without a couple key starters on defense.  Drew Lock came alive in the 2H of that game in a tough spot.  With a full week to prep for Lock, the Seahawks came back with an even more impressive 31-7 win at Arizona last week.  They had 381 total yards on offense against an improved Arizona defense.

The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL this season.  They held the Patriots to 10 points, and then the Cardinals to 7 points, 151 total yards and 3.4 yards per play.  This came a week after the Cardinals went on the road and beat the Chargers by double-digits.  It was a great performance from Seattle last week.

Now the Seahawks get Sam Darnold back this week.  He is an upgrade over Drew Lock, though I was willing to lay -7 even with Lock as the projected QB earlier this week.  This Seattle offense is fully healthy now and will get whatever it wants against this weak Washington defense.  The Seahawks got back S Nick Emmanwori last week, arguably their most important defender with his versatility.  They have an elite defensive line that will overwhelm this terrible, banged up Washington O-Line.

The Seahawks are the ultimate road warriors.  They are now 20-2 SU & 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Jets really should be 2-0.  They outgained the Titans 367 to 195, or by 172 yards in their 23-10 victory.  They outgained the Packers 285 to 199, or by 86 yards in their 20-17 loss.  Their defense clearly looks legit this season holding their first two opponents below 200 yards.  No question their defense will be the best the Lions have faced yet.

The Lions were actually outgained by 100 yards by the Saints at home and were fortunate to win in OT.  They wre outgained by 91 yards by the Bills in Week 2.  The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead, and the Lions got a lot of their yardage in garbage time with the game already decided.  This line should be much closer to 3 than 7 given how poor this Detroit defense is, making it tough for them to get margin because they can't get stops.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills -7

Joe Brady taking over as head coach has unleashed this Buffalo offense.  He now is in control and has gone more pass-happy especially on early downs to make this offense less predictable.  He is maximizing Josh Allen's talents and Allen is on track to win the MVP if he keeps playing this way.

The Bills went on the road and beat the Texans 36-31 in Week 1.  They had 409 total yards including 8.2 yards per play against what many feel is the best defense in the NFL in Houston.  Last week, they beat the Lions 41-31 at home on Thursday night football behind 446 yards and 6.7 per play.  They jumped out to a 21-0 lead and really took their foot off the gas late in that game on a short week.

Now the Bills have extra time to rest and prepare for the Chargers and to get even healthier.  DJ Moore went out early in that win over the Lions with a shoulder injury.  But he has been activated for Sunday and gives Allen that go-to weapon he has been missing in Buffalo.  Fellow starting WR Keon Coleman is also active after being questionable all week.  This is the best offense in the NFL for my money.

No question this Buffalo defense has some holes, but they are pretty healthy right now especially in the back seven.  DT Ed Oliver was scratched prior to the Detroit game.  He is expected to be active this week.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard runs a blitz-happy scheme to get pressure as much as possible.  That will work great against the Chargers, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially up the middle.

The Chargers are legit one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.  They lost 26-14 at home to the Cardinals as 8.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They were outgained by 125 yards by the Cardinals, who went on to lose 31-7 to the Seahawks last week and managed just 151 total yards.  The Chargers responded with another flat 26-14 loss to the Raiders as 6.5-point home favorites last week.

The offense is clearly broken with this offensive line and a lack of playmakers at receiver.  They are also down two tight ends due to injury.  But just as alarming is how poor this defense has looked without Jesse Minter, who is the head coach of the Ravens now.  They are without S Elijah Molden and NT Dalvin Tomlinson due to injury.  And this is just an aging defense that isn't very good.  Derwin James has to play with a cast on his broken hand as well.

The Bills are going to score and put up 30-plus points in this game again.  I don't think the Chargers are able to keep up, especially after being held to 14 points by both the Cardinals and Raiders, two below-average defenses.  The downward spiral continues for the Chargers this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Falcons/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

There are a couple systems favoring the Atlanta Falcons that are in play in a big way Thursday.  Teams who started 0-2 against a team with at least one win are 42-22-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These 0-2 teams play with desperation knowing how important it is to get their first win.

Teams like the Packers who are coming off an OT game and on a short week are 5-27 ATS in their last 32 tries.  We saw this play out last Thursday with the Bills blasting the Lions who were off an OT game against the Saints.  Single-digit favorites in this spot are actually 0-15 ATS in their last 15 tries.

The Packers are a tired, banged up team.  They just beat the Jets 20-17 (OT) on the road last week and now have the long travel back home to Green Bay to play on a short week.  They already have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and that O-Line gets even worse this week with two more starters in Zach Tom and Aaron Banks.  WR Jayden Reed suffered an injury last week that could knock him out for the season.  The Packers are also without their best defender in LB Micah Parsons and a key depth piece in DE Warren Brinson.  Both NT Javon Hargrave and DE Anthony Campbell are questionable as well.

The Packers were very fortunate to win last week.  The Jets held them to 199 yards and outgained them by 86 yards and should have won, but some poor coaching decisions allowed the Packers to get the win in OT.  Green Bay cannot run the ball averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game, which puts a lot of pressure on Jordan Love and the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the league.  They just aren't healthy enough to warrant being 5.5-point home favorites here.

It will be much easier for the Falcons to come back on a short week from a 34-3 blowout loss to the Panthers last week.  They basically pulled all their important players in the 2H of that game to keep them fresh for this Thursday game.  I think it will pay big dividends here for the desperate Falcons.

Cooper Rush has been the worst QB in the NFL and it's not close.  The Falcons were severely handcuffed with him as their QB the last two weeks.  But Michael Penix Jr. will make his return this week and give the offense a massive upgrade at QB.  He is one of the more underrated QB's in the league in my opinion and his chemistry with Drake London and Kyle Pitts has been awesome, especially London.

With Rush at QB, the he didn't even trust himself enough to throw the ball down the field to two of his best weapons in London and Pitts.  He simply checked it down to Bijan Robinson almost every time.  London and Pitts have a combined 7 receptions for 95 yards in two weeks.  That is unacceptable, and Penix will find them and find them often.  That should help open things up for Bijan Robinson and what is one of the better offensive lines in the league in Atlanta.

I also think the misleading loss to the Panthers has provided value on the Falcons this week.  They were only outgained by 54 yards in the 31-point defeat.  But they were -5 in turnovers including a pick-6 by the Panthers.  Penix has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt with a 12-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his brief career.  He has always been underrated dating back to his time with Washington in college.  He shows out and keeps the QB job in Atlanta as long as he can stay healthy.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/49ers UNDER 45.5

The 49ers enter the season very healthy defensively.  They have their three leaders in Bosa, Greenlaw and Warner all healthy to start the season.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state, and it showed in a 27-7 win over the Rams in Week 1 that saw just 34 combined points.  Many believe the Rams have the best offense in the NFL, and it's worth noting that was a healthy Rams offense as well that the 49ers just locked down.

But the 49ers have some serious questions with their playmakers.  They added the aging Mike Evans, and George Kittle is far from 100%. Deebo is past his prime as well.  They are without their best receiver in Pearsall, and the Aiyuk contract was one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  Kirk is out as well.  Things went from bad to worse when the 49ers lost another starting WR in rookie De'Zhaun Stribling in the opener.  He had a big preseason and earned his starting spot, but now he's on the IR.  And depth behind Kittle is a question now after Jake Tonges suffered an injury in Week 1 and has landed on IR.

The Dolphins may very well be the worst team in the NFL this season.  And a big reason for that is having arguably the worst offense in the NFL.  They paid QB Malik Willis too much and he is one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  He's a dead nuts UNDER QB with his dual-threat, and his legs may be a bigger weapon than his arm.  He also has zero proven playmakers outside RB De'Von Achane, who opposing defenses can key on.  The three starting WR's are Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell.  Gone is Mike McDaniel, and gone with him are WR's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  This offense is a shell of its former self.

But the Dolphins hired former Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach.  He will improve their defense, and Hafley knows his best chance to be competitive is to play like a triple-option team with time off possession and solid defense being the keys.  We saw that play out in Week 1 in a 27-13 loss to the Raiders that saw just 40 combined points and stayed under the 40.5-point total.  The Dolphins ran just 45 plays for 259 yards in the loss.  But the defense was solid, holding the Raiders to 290 yards and 4.3 per play.

The 49ers are 13.5-point favorites in this game.  They just want to get in and get out.  I can see this game playing out similar to the Rams game where they got a big lead and really sat on it, moved the sticks and ran out the clock.  This will be an extremely run-heavy game plan for the 49ers with all of their injuries at WR.  They will shut down the Dolphins, and this feels like another 27-13 type game similar to the one Miami just played with the Raiders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary now with Downs.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season.

Few teams are in worse shape than the Washington Commanders coming into the season.  Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.  That seems like ages ago now.  He went from 69% completions in '24 to 60.6% in '25, and his yards per carry dropped from 6.0 to 4.8.  He benefited a lot from Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in '24, and now he'll have a new coordinator in David Blough this season.

The problem is the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in football.  They are relying on aging players at the skill positions in McLaurin and Diggs.  Daniels is also returning from an injury-plagued season as well and probably won't risk running as much, which takes away one of his biggest weapons.

The Commanders may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Cowboys after a 28-20 loss to the Giants on the road on National TV on Sunday Night Football.  The Giants did a good job of playing keep away from the Cowboys offense.  The Cowboys only had two second half possessions in the game.  Now the Cowboys go from being 3-point road favorites over the Giants, to only 3.5-point home favorites over the Commanders.  I have the Giants power rated higher than the Commanders, so this line is way off.

The Commanders are getting respect because they covered in a 24-22 road loss to the Eagles as 6-point dogs.  But the Commanders were held to 9 points through 3 quarters before making a desperate comeback in garbage time and padding their stats.  They scored two TD's in the final 10 minutes.  The Eagles got conservative and let them come back, which they have a tendency to do.  The Cowboys won't take their foot off the gas this week.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

Dak Prescott is 37-11 SU & 32-16 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  Prescott is 20-0 SU in his last 20 games as a home favorites.  The Cowboys are 20-1 SU & 17-4 ATS as home favorites in division games over the last 10 seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games against the Commanders over the last 10 seasons, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game on average.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 50

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  They literally brought everyone back on offense and will be just as potent again.

The Commanders get a healthy Jaden Daniels back at QB to start the season and he opens up everything for them offensively.  They added another weapon in Stefon Diggs, who had a big season for the Patriots last year.  The Commanders put up 22 points on the Eagles on the road last week which was a pretty impressive showing against one of the top defenses in the NFL.

The Commanders are in much worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

The Cowboys allowed 28 points and 394 yards to the Giants last week to show that their defense is not improved yet.  They lost two key starters in that loss to the Giants to add insult to injury.  LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker have been ruled out for this game.  There will be plenty of holes in this defense for the Commanders to exploit to contribute to this total.

But what I'm really expecting is a big bounce back from this Dallas offense.  They were held to 20 points against the Giants.  But they only possessed the ball twice in the 2H after the Giants did a great job of playing keep away with long scoring drives.  They only ran 52 plays for the entire game.  Look for the Cowboys to go more up-tempo this week, and they always thrive offensively at home indoors on the turf.

The Cowboys went 6-2 OVER at home last season with 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  That included their 44-22 beat down of the Commanders that saw 66 combined points.  The Cowboys are 12-3 OVER in Prescott's 15 career starts against the Commanders while going over the total by 5.6 points per game on average.  This total of 50 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -8

I love backing Baker Mayfield with a chip on his shoulder.  The Browns kicked him to the curb in 2022 and signed Deshaun Watson to one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  General manager Andrew Berry is still calling the shots in Cleveland.  Mayfield will want to put one on the Browns today.

The Bucs have extra motivation to avoid an 0-2 start after a 'game' effort in Cincinnati in the opener.  The Bucs only lost 33-27 to a healthy, improved Bengals team this season.  And a deeper dive into the box score shows that the Bucs were the better team and should have won.  The Bucs were -3 in turnovers, and their four lost fumbles led to 24 points for the Bengals.  The Bucs averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 5.7 per play for the Bengals.

In fact, the Bucs are as healthy as they will be all season in Week 2.  No starters are out, and two are questionable with the potential return of WR Jalen McMillan.  CB Jacob Parrish is also questionable.  A big reason the Bucs struggled down the stretch last season is because they were so banged up.  The Bucs are full strength are one of the better teams in the NFC.

The Browns are full strength are a Bottom 5 team in the NFL and perhaps the worst team.  That showed in a 34-10 loss to the Jaguars last week in the heat.  The Browns trailed 31-0 early in the 3rd quarter before the Jaguars called off the dogs.  They even kicked a pity 26-yard FG to avoid the shutout, then scored another TD in the final two minutes in garbage time to make their stats not look as bad as it really was.  This was an absolute beat down at the hands of the Jaguars.

Deshaun Watson isn't an NFL QB.  The Browns are 1-7 in games in which Watson has started since 2024.  Their defense has taken a big drop off with the loss of Myles Garrett.  They got blasted in Week 1, and I think this is the team the oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough down for how bad they really are.  There's still line value to fade them in Week 2 and perhaps will be all season.

Amazingly, the Bucs have failed to cover the spread in 10 consecutive games dating back to last season.  That gives us a 'buy low' opportunity on them, especially after coming off a misleading loss against the Bengals in Week 1.  But the Bucs are 9-0-1 ATS in Week 2 over the last 10 seasons, covering the spread by 9.2 points per game.  They are 16-3 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 seasons as well.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* Vikings/Bears NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Head coach Ben Johnson said in training camp that he wants to have the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.  He knew it was the 2013 Broncos and how many points per game (37.9) they scored in the interview.  He said I want shootouts, I want blowouts.

Johnson has the offense that can put up big points with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, QB Caleb Williams, and emerging young receivers in Burden and Odunze.  He also has one of the best TE tandems in the NFL in Loveland and Kmet, plus a great 1-2 punch in the backfield in Swift and Monangai.  This offense should thrive in Year 2 under Johnson.

The Bears are going to have to try and win shootouts this season because I expect their defense to be one of the worst in the league.  The Bears gave up big yards last season, but they were bailed out time and time again by a defense that forced a NFL-leading 33 turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bears are going to give up big points and yards this season.

My biggest play last Sunday was the Bears/Panthers OVER 46.5 and it was the easiest winner we will have all season.  The Bears beat the Panthers 59-37 for 96 combined points.  Oddsmakers have adjusted this total up a little as a result, but they haven't adjusted it enough.  I think we'll see all season that they can't set these Chicago totals high enough.

The Bears racked up 552 total yards and 8.1 per play against the Panthers, while allowing 478 yards and 8.0 per play.  Chicago came out of that game perfectly healthy and will be explosive again offensively this week.  The defense will continue to get shredded.  I don't think Carson Wentz is much of a downgrade from Kyler Murray, and he is every bit as good as Bryce Young who just torched Chicago.

In fact, the OVER went 5-0 in games started by Wentz last season.  He threw for over 300 yards in two of those starts including against the vaunted Steelers and Eagles defenses.  Wentz knows the system, and head coach Kevin O'Connell is one of the best offensive minds in the game and will get the most out of him.

The score says the Vikings were dominant in their 39-22 win over the Packers in Week 1.  But the defense had plenty of holes that the Packers exploited.  In fact, the Packers had 419 total yards and 6.7 yards per play against this Minnesota defense.  You can just imagine what the Bears are going to do to the Vikings this week.  I trust in Ben Johnson to out-scheme Brian Flores now that he's seen his defenses several times.  Both offenses will have plenty of success to top this 48-point total this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots UNDER 42

Both the Steelers and Patriots are dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Throw in the fact that temps will be in the 50's in New England Sunday with a 60-80% chance of rain and the weather will aid us in cashing this UNDER 42 ticket.

The Patriots have an elite defense that they rode to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 17.9 points per game and 284.9 yards per game last season.  Drake Maye wasn't very impressive in the playoffs and was exposed.  The Patriots parted ways with his favorite target in Stefon Diggs, and replaced him with AJ Brown.  Well, Brown just suffered an injury in Week 1 against the Seahawks and is now on injured reserve.

The Patriots have one of the worst group of receivers in the NFL without Brown.  They have Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins listed as their starters.  They will likely try and ride their rushing attack until Brown returns because they are going to be limited in what they can do in the passing game.  We saw that against the Seahawks in their 13-10 loss.  Maye went 23-of-33 passing for 178 yards with one TD and 3 INT against Seattle.

They Steelers have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

It was another ugly showing in Week 1 with the Steelers beating the Falcons 20-13 for just 33 combined points.  And one of Pittsburgh's two touchdowns came on a Pick-6 by TJ Watt.  The Steelers managed just 264 total yards against a weak Atlanta defense.  Rodgers went 24-of-40 passing for 221 yards with one TD without an INT.  And the leading receiver was Michael Pittman, who had 3 receptions for 58 yards.  Well, Pittman is out for this game now with an injury suffered in Week 1.

The Patriots held the Seahawks to 13 points and 285 yards.  The Steelers held the Falcons to 13 points and 238 yards.  Both defenses are much further ahead than the offenses heading into Week 2, and both defenses will dominate this game again.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Ravens UNDER 47

This total has been inflated due to both the Saints and Ravens going over the total in their Week 1 games.  There will also be some weather in this game with a small chance of rain and 10-15 MPH winds throughout.  This total has been bet down since I released it but it hasn't been bet down enough.  It's good down to 45.

The Saints are coming off a 31-30 (OT) loss to the Lions.  That game saw 48 combined points at the end of regulation before both teams scored TD's in OT.  The Saints actually held the high-powered Lions in check last week holding them to 369 yards and 5.1 per play, which was 299 yards at the end of regulation before Detroit's 70-yard TD drive in OT.

The Saints had 469 yards, which is adjusted down to 389 at the end of regulation when you take away their TD drive in OT.  But the Saints benefited from the Lions playing a lot of prevent defense in the 2H trying to protect a 21-0 lead.  They also benefited from the fact that the Lions are decimated with injuries in their secondary and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  The Bills just hung 41 points on the Lions on Thursday.

No question the Ravens were impressive in their 41-23 win at Indianapolis in the opener.  What they did in the first half when they were fully healthy was mighty impressive.  They outscored the Colts 31-13 in the first half with Zay Flowers going off for 5 receptions for 150 yards and a TD.  At full strength, the Ravens may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.

But Flowers left the game in the 2nd quarter with a hamstring injury and has already been ruled out.  Fellow starting WR Ja'Kobi Lane suffered a fractured wrist in the win and has gone on IR.  LT Ronnie Stanley and LG John Simpson are both questionable.  The offense won't be nearly as dynamic without Flowers, and this is a solid New Orleans defense that can hold Baltimore in check.

The Saints didn't have veteran DE Cam Jordan in their opener against the Lions.  Jordan is back this week.  The only injury question for them defensively is LB Chase Young being questionable.  WR Chris Olave got banged up against the Lions and left the game several times.  He is questionable and won't be 100% even if he does play.  That's big with Olave going off for 10 receptions for 182 yards against the Lions.

Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL led by one of the best defensive minds in the NFL in Jesse Minter.  We saw the Chargers struggle defensively giving up 26 points to the Cardinals in their first game without Minter calling the plays.  And I think we see Baltimore's level of play elevated defensively with Minter calling the shots now.  They held the Colts to 251 yards and 4.9 per play in the opener, and this will be the best defense that Tyler Shough has faced in his young career.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Lions/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo -4.5

The Buffalo Bills went on the road and picked up an impressive 36-31 win at Houston in Week 1.  They put up 36 points and 8.2 yards per play against a Houston defense that many believe is the best in the NFL.  You can only imagine what they are going to do to this Detroit defense this week.

There will be no letdown for the Bills as this is their home opener in a new stadium.  It will be a raucous atmosphere and one of the best atmospheres in the NFL this season.  And the Bills got out of that Houston game very healthy and will be ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Lions, who will be down three starting offensive linemen this week.  Their offense managed just 369 yards and 5.1 per play against the Saints that was aided even by OT where they drove down and scored a TD.

More concerning is a Detroit defense that allowed 469 yards and 5.8 per play to the Saints, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  The Lions are without two starters in the secondary in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, plus CB D.J. Reed is banged up.  Tyler Shough lit up this Detroit defense for 410 passing yards and 3 passing TD and the Saints even dropped a lot of balls in the 1H or it could have been worse.

You can imagine what Josh Allen is going to do to this Lions defense.  The Bills hired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and he is passing a lot more this season and unleashing his best weapon in Allen.  It was amazing to see what Allen can do when he throws it more and has better weapons with the addition of DJ Moore and having a healthy TE in Kincaid to get the ball to.  The last time he faced the Lions he put up 48 points on them while accounting for 430 yards and 4 TD himself.

This is a terrible spot for the Lions.  They basically played an extra quarter with OT against the Saints last week as both teams scored TD's in the extra session.  Most concerning is a tired Detroit defense that was on the field for 81 plays against the Saints, and basically the entire 2H and OT.  Teams off an OT game and on a short week are 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games, including 3-16 ATS when on the road since 2000.  The spot really favors a Buffalo blowout.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44

The UNDER is 44-22 in Week 1 games in the NFL over the past four seasons.  Teams come into the season rusty offensively with a shorter preseason now.  Defenses tend to be ahead of offenses, and that proved to be the case especially in primetime with the Seahawks winning 13-10 for 23 combined points over the Pats and the 49ers winning 27-7 for 34 combined pints against the Rams.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER series between the Chiefs and Broncos.  In fact, the UNDER is 6-0 in th last six meetings finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  These teams know each other inside and out, and it tends to favor defense over offense as these are two of the best defenses in the league.

Both starting QB's will be returning from injury today.  Patrick Mahomes didn't play at all in the preseason, and Bo Nix played sparingly.  Mahomes is 9 months removed from ACL surgery and probably won't use his legs as much this season as a result, and that's a big weapon taken away.  Nix is returning from season-ending ankle injury suffered int he playoffs last year.

The Broncos rode their defense to the AFC Championship Game last season.  They allowed just 18.5 points per game, 283.4 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play last season.  The Chiefs had a championship caliber defense as well, holding foes to 19.3 points per game and 301.5 yards per game.

Both offenses held their teams back last year.  And while both may be improved as the season goes on, I don't expect it to show in Week 1.  Denver averaged 23.2 points per game last season while Kansas City after just 21.3 points per game in a disastrous 6-11 campaign.  The Chiefs will be without LT Josh Simmons, which will allow Denver's league-best pass rush to put pressure on Mahomes all game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary, and LB DeMarvion Overshown is healthy to start the season.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary with S Hooker and CB Bland to go along with Downs.  This should be the most improved defense in the NFL this season.

The Giants got a lot of headlines for hiring John Harbaugh.  But he may be past his prime and failed to live up to the lofty expectations in Baltimore.  The Ravens gave him a Top 5 roster year in and year out and he was only able to win one Super Bowl.  Now Harbaugh won't benefit from having a top GM like Baltimore did.  The Giants are much more of a mess due to the situation the GM put them in.

While there is talent on this young Giants' roster, it's going to take some time for Harbaugh to craft the team he wants.  It won't just automatically click in Week 1.  I have serious questions about the talent on offense.  QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo are injuries waiting to happen.  Speaking of injuries, WR Malik Nabers is questionable for this game, and he is far and away their most talented pass-catcher.  I rate Dallas' offense about 7 points better than New York's offense this season.

No question there is talent on this Giants' defense in the form of LB Burns, LB Reese and LB Carter.  But the Giants were pretty healthy defensively last season and were still terrible.  They allowed 25.8 points per game, 359.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Most notably they gave up 145.3 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground, and I think they will have trouble stopping the run again.  I also think the secondary is worse off this season than it was last.

A big reason for the Chiefs not living up to expectations in recent seasons was offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy leaving, and being replaced by Matt Nagy.  I just think the game has passed Nagy by.  One of the worst hires of the offseason was the Giants getting Nagy to be their offensive coordinator.  So the Giants are learning a new scheme, and a predictable scheme at that.  There will be growing pains for the offense in Week 1.  I expect the Cowboys to hit the ground running with the chemistry they have in place.

Dak Prescott is 37-10 SU & 32-15 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  That includes a 14-3 SU mark against the Giants in his career.  The Cowboys are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Giants with one of those losses coming when they sat their starters early in Week 18 last year.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Steelers UNDER 41.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers really profile as a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

The Atlanta Falcons have an improved defense which made them more competitive last season.  But they are a mess on offense.  They expected either Tua or Penix to start for them, and both are below-average QB's in this league.  But both are hurt to start the season, meaning they will give the keys to 3rd-string QB Cooper Rush.

Rush was dealing with back spasms Saturday but is expected to be good to go.  Rush is a dead nuts UNDER QB who doesn't stretch the field and is a dink and dunk QB who tries to limit mistakes.  That's the perfect 'UNDER' QB.  I expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and the rushing attack early in the season until they get their QB situation figured out.

Both teams are learning new offenses early in the season with new head coach Mike McCarthy for the Steelers and new head coach Kevin Stefanski for the Falcons.  I think there will be growing pains for both offenses, and Stefanski is accustomed to trying to win with a limited offense dating back to his time in Cleveland.  He is more than happy to play in defensive battles, which is precisely what this will be.  

Defenses are ahead of offenses in Week 1 because of the shortened preseason.  In fact, UNDERS are now 44-22 in Week 1 over the past five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Panthers OVER 46.5

Head coach Ben Johnson said in training camp that he wants to have the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.  He knew it was the 2013 Broncos and how many points per game (37.9) they scored in the interview.  He said I want shootouts, I want blowouts.

Johnson has the offense that can put up big points with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, QB Caleb Williams, and emerging young receivers in Burden and Odunze.  He also has one of the best TE tandems in the NFL in Loveland and Kmet, plus a great 1-2 punch in the backfield in Swift and Monangai.  This offense should thrive in Year 2 under Johnson.

The Bears are going to have to try and win shootouts this season because I expect their defense to be one of the worst in the league.  The Bears gave up big yards last season, but they were bailed out time and time again by a defense that forced a NFL-leading 33 turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bears are going to give up big points and yards this season.

The Panthers made a subtle change in the offseason that is going to make them more potent offensively.  Head coach Dave Canales gave over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik.  Both are set on playing with more tempo.  Carolina snapped the ball 100 times last season with one second or fewer on the play clock, the 5th-highest rate in the league and 3 times more than the year prior.  Working up against the play clock really hurt the offense last season.

Idzik made these comments in the media. "We have to press on our end the urgency of getting to the line of scrimmage, there’s a reason for it to try to get the defense to undress as fast as possible so we’re not up against the clock. That is definitely a huge trend that we keep track of. And we don’t want to be on the back end of snapping that thing with one second on the clock every time because that’ll be the O-lineman’s worst friend, when the defensive line knows, ‘OK, they either snap it now, or they’re a delay of game.’ (The defense) can roar off the ball. We want to stay ahead of the clock and continue to be in an attacking nature as much as we can.”

I like the pieces QB Bryce Young has to work with and should have a ton of chemistry in Year 3 with them.  But the defense is going to be a problem for the Panthers as it was last season as well.  There just isn't a ton of talent on this defense as a whole.  And they will be without starting LB Patrick Jones to start the season to boot, which kind of counters the fact that they brought in a solid LB in Devin Lloyd.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no rain in Carolina.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFL Melbourne No-Brainer on UNDER 48.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I love backing UNDERS in Week 1 between divisional opponents who are familiar with one another playing two times per season.  And no two teams are more familiar with each other than the 49ers and Rams with long-tenured head coaches in Shanahan and McVay.

Not to mention both teams will be rusty offensively in Week 1.  That tends to be the case across the league.  In fact, UNDERS have gone 43-22 in Week 1 over the last five seasons.  This makes sense with the preseason being shorter now, which has the defenses ahead of the offenses.  Few starters even play in the preseason, and when they do it isn't for much time.  

The Rams don't play their starters in the preseason, and the 49ers barely played theirs, especially with all their injuries.  We saw this play out last season as both teams played in extremely low-scoring games in Week 1.  The 49ers beat the Seahawks 17-13 for just 30 combined points.  The Rams beat the Texans 14-9 for just 23 combined points.

The 49ers enter the season very healthy defensively.  They have their three leaders in Bosa, Greenlaw and Warner all healthy to start the season.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state.  But the 49ers have some serious questions with their playmakers.  They added the aging Mike Evans, and George Kittle is far from 100%. Deebo is past his prime as well.  They are without their best receiver in Pearsall, and the Aiyuk contract was one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  Kirk is out as well.

No question Stafford and the offense are one of the best units in the NFL for the Rams.  But what gets overlooked is just how good this Rams defense is.  And it just got a lot better with the trade for Myles Garrett in the offseason, arguably the most impactful defender in the entire NFL.  I know Aaron Donald isn't going to play Week 1, but this will be a Top 5 defense when he does return.  They added CB Trent McDuffie, who WR Davante Adams said is the best CB in the NFL.

I haven't even mentioned how much both teams will be feeling 'off' mentally and physically with the long trip to Australia.  It's also going to be cold with temps in the 50's.  The 49ers and Rams have combined for 48 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 10 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Patriots/Seahawks NFL Season Opener on UNDER 44.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a Super Bowl rematch.  The Patriots and Seahawks had two weeks to prepare for each other leading into the Super Bowl.  Now they have had an entire offseason to prepare for each other leading into the season opener.  They know each other inside and out, and that will clearly favor defense over offense.

Not to mention both teams will be rusty offensively in Week 1.  That tends to be the case across the league.  In fact, UNDERS have gone 42-22 in Week 1 over the last four seasons.  This makes sense with the preseason being shorter now, which has the defenses ahead of the offenses.  Few starters even play in the preseason, and when they do it isn't for much time.

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in the Super Bowl.  But that was a very misleading final in terms of points scored.  It was 12-0 Seahawks going into the 4th quarter before these teams exploded for 30 points in the final period.  The Seahawks scored on a pick 6, and the Patriots tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time after trailing 19-0.  Yet it still finished with just 42 combined points.

The Patriots have an elite defense that they rode to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 17.9 points per game and 284.9 yards per game last season.  Drake Maye wasn't very impressive in the playoffs and was exposed.  He does have AJ Brown now, but they lose Stefon Diggs who was big for them last season.  And I don't expect Maye to have great chemistry with Brown in Week 1.  They will be without their most explosive RB in TreVeyon Henderson for this one.

The Seahawks also rode their defense to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 16.9 points per game and 295.1 yards per game last season.  They did lose some players in the secondary, but the front seven is loaded.  I don't think Maye and this offense are ones to be able to expose their secondary.

No question Sam Darnold had a tremendous season and is also a key reason the Seahawks won the Super Bowl.  But Darnold won't have offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak, who left to become the head coach of the Raiders.  There will be some growing pains with new coordinator Brian Fleury.  They also lost their MVP of the playoffs in RB Kenneth Walker, who got a new fat contract with the Chiefs.  

That leaves rookie Jadarian Price as their lead back with Zach Charbonnet out with an injury.  And this Seattle offense is limited with not much talent at receiver outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  You can bet the Patriots are going to game plan to stop him, and they have one of the best corners in the league in Christian Gonzalez to do just that.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

FREE Super Bowl Props Below: I have my favorite Super Bowl Props listed below the analysis.  I will likely be adding more leading up to the Super Bowl, so be sure to check back on the day of the big game to make sure you have all of my prop picks.

The Seattle Seahawks are the best team in the NFL and deserve to be in the Super Bowl.  They won the toughest division in football in the NFC West and the toughest conference.  They took advantage of the No. 1 seed and returned from their bye week to crush the 49ers 41-6 before getting by the 2nd-best team in football in the Los Angeles Rams, 31-27.

What makes the Seahawks the best team in the NFL is they have no weaknesses.  They rank 3rd in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 8th in total offense at 350 yards per game and 7th at 6.0 yards per play.  Seattle ranks 1st in scoring defense at 17.1 points per game, 6th in total defense at 293.4 yards per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  They ranked 1st in the NFL with a +191 scoring differential in the regular season and have a +230 differential including the playoffs.  All while playing the 9th-toughest schedule in the NFL.

The Patriots are complete frauds.  They have gotten here thanks to playing the easiest schedule (32nd) in the league and arguably the easiest schedule of any team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl.  Give Mike Vrabel credit for getting them this far with smoke and mirrors, but they will get exposed here as they finally have to face a complete team.

Not only did the Patriots make the playoffs while facing the easiest regular season schedule, they have caught a ton more breaks in these playoffs with all three opponents hampered offensively.  They beat the Chargers who had the worst offensive line in the NFL and were missing RB Omarion Hampton.  They beat the Texans who had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and were missing WR Nico Collins.  Both Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud completely imploded.  And in the AFC Championship Game, they got to face a backup QB in Jarrett Stidham who was making his first NFL start in three years.

The Patriots had no business beating the Broncos.  Stidham fumbled the ball deep in his own territory to set up New England's lone TD of the game on an 11-yard TD drive.  They were able to protect a 10-7 lead thanks to the weather in the 2H.  The Patriots have been awful offensively all playoffs.

Indeed, the Patriots have averaged 18.0 points per game in these playoffs, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams.  Drake Maye has been prone to fumbles and interceptions, and I don't trust him as much as I trust the veteran Sam Darnold, who looks primed to go all the way.  Maye aggravated a shoulder injury against the Broncos that could still be an issue two weeks later.  It helps explain why he was so bad against Denver, completing 10-of-21 passes for 86 yards.

Darnold had a monster game against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game to shoot down any questions about his oblique injury.  Darnold went 25-of-36 passing for 346 yards and 3 TD without a turnover against the Rams.  He seems to be all business, and now he gets the opportunity to put to rest the 'seeing ghosts' game against the Patriots early on in his career.  His teammates love him and they are all business, too.  They know they deserve to be here and it's their time, while the Patriots should be just happy to be here given all the breaks they've gotten along the way.

Darnold is 30-7 SU & 25-11-1 ATS over the past two seasons as a starting QB.  Darnold is 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more in his career.  Head coach Mike McDonald has owned young QB's.  Over the last two seasons, in 10 games against QB's under the age of 25, the Seahawks are 9-1 SU allowing just 7 TD passes with 12 INT's and a whopping 30 sacks.  Brock Purdy in 2024 was the lone winner.  Darnold and McDonald have combined to go 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in night games.  It's Seattle's time.  Bet the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Props (1* = 1 Unit)

1* Stevenson O 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1* Stevenson Longest Reception O 11.5 (-110)

1* Walker O 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1* Henderson O 0.5 Receptions (-140)

1* Shaheed O 3.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

1* Shaheed Longest Reception O 14.5 (-110)

1* Shaheed O 29.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5* Holani O 9.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

0.5* Shaheed 40+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+240)

0.5* Stevenson 50+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+595)

0.25* Shaheed 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards (+670)

0.25* Shaheed Most Receiving Yards in Super Bowl (+2500)

0.25* Stevenson Most Receiving Yards in Super Bowl (+4500)

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC Championship No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

Note: I released this play early in the week at +3.  I would still play it as a 20* with the Rams +2.5 or any ML underdog price.

I have the Los Angeles Rams power rated as the best team in the NFL.  So they cannot be catching a full 3 points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is tremendous value, especially when you consider the Rams were 3-point home favorites and only 1.5-point road dogs in the first two meetings in this series.

The Seahawks are getting too much respect for their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  That was a tired, beat up 49ers team that left it all on the field against the Eagles the previous week.  It was a 49ers team down several key starters, and one that lost two more key weapons in that game with RB McCaffrey and backup TE Tonges both going out with injuries.

The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the 49ers and it was basically over from there.  They got to dictate the terms the rest of the game.  Sam Darnold only went 12-of-17 passing for 124 yards so he didn't even really have to test is injured oblique.  The Rams won 41-6 despite just 281 total yards of offense and outgaining the 49ers by just 45 yards.  It was a very misleading final as they were also +3 in turnovers.

Darnold will have to make more plays in the passing game for the Seahawks to be successful because the Rams are going to get their points.  The Rams have the best offense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring at 30.1 points per game, 1st in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.

In their first meeting with the Seahawks, the Rams won 21-19 at home.  They jumped out to a 14-3 and got conservative from there.  The Rams lost 38-37 (OT) in the 2nd meeting in Seattle.  They again had a 30-14 lead in the 4th quarter and got conservative, plus had a few breaks go against them.  They deserved to win that game.

Indeed, the Rams racked up 581 total yards on the Seahawks, who are supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They did it without Davante Adams as well, and he is back now.  They outgained the Seahawks by 166 yards.  Stafford threw for 457 yards and 3 TD in the loss.  The Seahawks even benefited from a 58-yard punt return TD.

The Rams went a lot of 12 personnel in that 2nd meeting with more two TE sets.  The Seahawks rank 29th out of 32 teams in the NFL in defending tight ends.  TE may be the Rams' most underrated position with Ferguson, Parkinson and Hibgee all playmakers.  They have no weaknesses on offense, especially with RG Kevin Dotson returning last week.  The Rams are the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL.  Plus, Stafford hasn't been sacked once in 79 drop backs in two meetings with the Seahawks this season, so they have schemed it up well.

The underrated unit in this matchup is this Rams defense.  It has been so much better with CB Quentin Lake on the field, and he has returned for the playoffs.  In fact, the Rams are allowing 0.6 yards per play fewer with Lake on the field than off it this season.  It really shows up against the run as they allow 3.9 yards per carry with Lake on the field and 4.8 per carry without him.  He's a great tackler on the perimeter, and the Seahawks aren't going to have the same kind of success running outside like they did against the 49ers.  Backup CB Emmanuel Forbes returns this week, and the Rams are fully healthy in the secondary as well.  They couldn't be more healthy than they are right now.

Sean McVay is the better coach here as Mike McDonald has not been in this position before.  McVay is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 meetings with the Seahawks.  The Rams are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS against the Seahawks with Stafford at QB with the lone loss coming by a single point.  Teams on a 7-plus game winning streak entering the conference championship game are just 4-12 ATS since 2002.  This trend just shows how overvalued these teams become.  I'll gladly back the better team catching a full FG here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship No-Brainer on Denver +5.5

Note: I released this play early in the week at +5.5.  I would still play it as a 20* down to +3.5.

This line would have been Denver -1.5 with a healthy Bo Nix.  It opened at Denver +5.5 once it was announced he would be out.  That's a 7-point adjustment from Bo Nix to backup QB Jarrett Stidham.  That's simply too much.  I have a 3-point difference between these QB's and that might even be high.

Nix has been the weak link on this Denver team all season.  Yes, he has come up clutch and has made the plays that he has had to, but they have been winning in spite of him.  Nix has averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with a 90.5 QB Rating in his career.  Stidham is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt in his career.

Stidham is one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL just because he has only made four career starts.  He was drafted by the Patriots to replace Tom Brady, which is how highly they thought of him.  New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels traded for him when he took over as the Raiders head coach.  And Stidham was the first player Sean Payton signed when he took over in Denver, which is how highly he thought of him.  He is one of the top paid backup QB's in the NFL for a reason.

In the preseason this year, Stidham completed 30-of-38 (78.9%) of his passes for 376 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Hew threw for 240 yards and 2 TD's against the Cardinals.  He threw for 136 yards and 2 TD's while also rushing for 36 yards against the 49ers.  He is probably even a more accurate passer than Nix, and though he isn't as mobile, he is mobile enough.

The weakness of this New England defense is their pass defense, so this sets up well for Stidham.  They rank 24th allowing 64.3% completions.  There's no head coach you'd want more to guide a backup QB than Sean Payton.  He is 12-9 SU & 14-7 ATS in his head coaching career with a backup QB starting.

The Patriots have gotten here by facing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.  It has carried over into the playoffs.  Justin Herbert is a shell of himself in the playoffs, and he is playing behind the worst offensive line in the league.  Last week, CJ Stroud and the Texans gave the game away with five turnovers.  The Texans also have a bottom 5 offensive line.  The Patriots only had 248 total yards in that win in terrible conditions.

The Broncos have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game.  They are led by a defense that ranks 3rd in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 287.7 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They have been the best defense in the NFL over the last decade in preventing explosive plays, and that's what the Patriots really rely on offensively.

Drake Maye has gotten away with his poor play because the Chargers and Texans couldn't do anything offensively to take advantage.  Maye already has 6 fumbles and 2 INT in two games in these playoffs.  Now he plays the league's best pass rush in the Broncos, who lead the NFL in sacks.  He doesn't protect the ball and cannot feel pressure very well, and he will be under duress all game.  I don't think he'll get away with his poor decision making on the road in a hostile environment against the Broncos.

Both WR's Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin were ruled out early last week in their win over Buffalo.  The Broncos were able to overcome it, plus an injury to C Alex Forsyth.  But Bryant was a full participant in practice on Thursday and will be a full go, while Franklin and Forsyth both got in limited practices, a sign that they are trending in the right direction.  Now RB JK Dobbins was designated to return from IR this week and would give the offense a huge boost if he returns.  He got in a limited practice Thursday s well.

Home underdogs of +4 or higher in the playoffs are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years.  Drake May won his first two career playoff starts.  Of the seven previous QB's in this spot, they have combined to go 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their 3rd career playoff game.  The Broncos have the rest advantage, and Payton is 5-0 SU in the playoffs in his career with a rest advantage.  The Broncos are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference championship games, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home.  Denver is 28-11-3 ATS as home dogs in November or later over the last 50 years.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Bears OVER 50.5

Note: I grabbed OVER 50.5 as soon as it dropped below 51 at most places.  51 is such a key number for NFL totals that I pulled the trigger.  Of course, I wish I would have waited as this total is 48.5 as of this writing.  But there's pretty much no difference between 48.5 and 50.5 as 49 and 50 are really dead numbers unless there's missed XP's.  I love it even more at 48.5.  The tick down on this total has also brought the Rams' team total down to 26.5, and I recommend a bet on the OVER 26.5 as well as I'm very confident the Rams will do their part to get 27-plus points. They have scored at least 28 points in 10 of their last 12 games. BONUS BET: Rams OVER 26.5 Team Total

This total ticking down is solely due to the weather.  It's going to be 20 degrees in Chicago with 15-20 MPH winds.  There's been a lot said about Matthew Stafford in cold weather, but he has actually been great in bad weather recently.  It was windy and rainy in Carolina and he threw for 304 yards and 3 TD while leading the Rams to 34 points.  It was windy and rainy in Seattle and he led the Rams to 37 points and 581 total yards against arguably the league's best defense.  Last year in Philadelphia in the divisional round, it was freezing temps with snow and Stafford threw for 324 yards and 2 TD while leading the Rams to 402 total yards against that Super Bowl Eagles defense.  All this talk about the weather is overblown.  If it was perfect weather, this total should be in the upper-50's.

The Rams are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in all seven games.  The Rams and their opponents have combined to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those seven games.  This includes two games against Arizona and two games against Carolina, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring 34 or more points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring at 30.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense and even get back RG Kevin Dotson this week, who is one of the best guards in the game.  He's a big reason the Rams rank 1st in success rate running the football.  And their ability to run the ball opens up everything for Stafford.

The Bears will offer little resistance defensively.  They rank 29th in total defense at 365.1 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 27th against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per game and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bears lost LB T.J. Edwards (67 tackles) to a season-ending injury against the Packers last week in their wild 31-27 comeback win that saw 58 combined points.  The Packers did whatever they wanted to offensively and finished with 421 total yards.  It was cold and windy in that game, too.

The Bears just played in a classic shootout with the 49ers in Week 17 in a 42-38 loss for 80 combined points.  They are really a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is fully healthy with Caleb Williams having his full compliment of weapons in WR's Odunze, Moore and Burden, TE's Loveland and Kmet and the 2-headed monster at RB in Swift and Monangai.  They also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with PFF ranking them 3rd.  They surrendered a league-low 13 sacks this season, and they paved the way for the 3rd-best rushing attack in the NFL at 141.6 rushing yards per game.

The Bears will stay hot on offense against a Rams defense that has cratered here down the stretch.  The Rams are allowing 28.3 points per game in their last seven games.  Again, that includes four games against two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Cardinals (twice) and Panthers (twice).  Teams are getting whatever they want against this Rams secondary, which is now down another starter with CB Akhello Witherspoon being placed on IR after suffering another injury against Carolina.  Bryce Young led the Panthers to 31 points and 264 passing yards against them last week.

The weather is also negated by the fact that both teams are going to be able to run the football with a ton of success.  I've already stated why the Rams will be successful on the ground, but the Bears' 3rd-ranked rushing attack will be, too.  The Rams are allowing 4.7 yards per carry in their last seven games.  The Falcons rushed for 219 yards on 33 carries and the Seahawks 171 yards on 25 carries recently.  Whatever team is down is going to be able to make a comeback in what should be a back and forth game that features plenty of offensive fireworks.  The only thing I'm certain of is neither of these defenses are going to be able to get many stops.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Divisional Round ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7.5

This is the best coaching job of Kyle Shanahan's career.  The 49ers have been one of the most injured teams in the NFL all season.  They still found themselves playing for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.  They lost to the Seahawks in that game, and they want revenge in a big way against their division rivals.

Shanahan and the 49ers are at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.  They were counted out last week when the Eagles took a ton of money opening -3 and closing -6.  The 49ers upset the Eagles 23-19 on the road, and there was nothing fluky about it.  They were -2 in turnovers and still won while outgaining the Eagles 361 to 307, or by 54 yards.  They held the Eagles to 27 yards on 26 plays to close out the game.

This despite the 49ers playing with three new starters at LB due to injuries suffered in the loss to the Seahawks the week prior.  Eric Hendricks played a great game in his first start for the 49ers and will get the start again.  It looks like Dee Winters and Luke Gifford both have a good shot at returning this week at LB.  And their defensive line is as healthy as it has been in a very long time, plus they have a shutdown corner in Lenoir who literally took AJ Brown out of the game.  

Lenoir could do the same against the NFL's leading receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba if the 49ers so choose.  It's an ace up defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's sleeve that I would be surprised if he doesn't deploy this week.  Saleh is doing the best coaching job of his career, too.

The 49ers got LT Trent Williams back healthy last week after they didn't have him against the Seahawks in Week 18.  He is arguably the best LT in the game.  Ricky Pearsall sat out last week, but there's a good chance he returns this week.  The 49ers didn't have Pearsall against the Seahawks in Week 18, either.  I don't think TE Jake Tonges is that big of a downgrade from Kittle and may actually be the better receiver.  Demarcus Robinson had 7 receptions for 111 yards and a score against the Eagles.  No matter who Shanahan puts out there, this offense is productive.

The Seahawks obviously have the more favorable rest spot after getting a bye week.  But they also have all the pressure on them to perform, most notably Sam Darnold, who has come up short in big games time and time again in his career.  Now Darnold suffered an oblique injury in practice that has him listed as questionable.  While I expect him to play, there's no question that oblique injury will limit him.  And this could be the classic Darnold 'seeing ghosts' game.

After beating the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18, the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' and don't feel like they need to make any adjustments.  You know Kyle Shanahan is going to come up with the best adjustments possible to be more successful offensively.  And with Williams and likely Pearsall back this week, he has a lot more chess pieces to play with.  Their offense will be better, and Saleh will continue to get the most out of this defense, which should be a little healthier this week at LB.

The 49ers are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Seahawks.  Brock Purdy is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in eight career starts against them.  Purdy is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four career trips to Seattle, winning by 10.5 points per game on average.  Purdy is 7-1 SU in road games against NFC West opponents as a starter for the 49ers.  Shanahan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, including 3-0 SU as road underdogs.  The 49ers as a franchise are 11-0 SU in their last 11 Wild Card/Divisional Round games.

The Seahawks are riding a 7-game winning streak into the playoffs.  Teams on a 7+ game winning streak coming off a bye in the divisional round are 2-8 ATS since 2003.  Teams who outscore opponents by 11+ PPG while coming off a bye in the divisional round are 4-12 ATS over the last 20 years.  The 49ers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on short rest, including 9-3 SU on the road during this span.  Shanahan produced the single-highest offensive success rate against the Eagles since Vic Fangio became their defensive coordinator last week.  Getting +7.5 with San Francisco is just disrespectful this week.  Bet the 49ers Saturday.

20* Bills/Broncos AFC Divisional Round No-Brainer on Denver ML +100

The Denver Broncos are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Even in the game they lost, it was a misleading final as they outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346 but were -2 in turnovers in Week 15.  They were 3.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars, who were just 1.5-point home favorites over the Bills last week.  So from a line value perspective alone, the Broncos should be closer to 3-point favorites here if the Jaguars were just favored over the Bills in what was essentially a coin flip game.

The Bills came out of that game battered a bruised.  Josh Allen came into the game with a toe injury, and he proceeded to get checked for a concussion, and suffered injuries to his hand and his knee throughout the game.  He is nowhere near 100%, and he just doesn't have much help around him, especially with all the other injuries they are dealing with.

WR's Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis both suffered season-ending injuries in the game, and RB Ty Johnson is questionable.  The Bills are basically down to 3 healthy receivers in Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman.  Only Shakir of those three is reliable as Cooks is a journeyman while Coleman has been a healthy scratch at times this year.  The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the NFL at defending tight ends, and Patrick Surtain could shadow Dalton Kincaid, something he has done in the past against elite TE's.

Defensively, the Bills lost SS Jordan Poyer (71 tackles) and LB Terrel Bernard (67 tackles) to injuries against the Jaguars.  They were already without CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  This is already one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially against the run.  They rank 28th allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game and 30th allowing 5.2 yards per carry.  The Jaguars just rushed for 154 yards and 6.7 per carry against them last week.

You can bet head coach Sean Payton is going to put this game in the hands of RJ Harvey and this Denver rushing attack as much as possible to exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness, which is their run defense.  The Broncos are better than the Bills everywhere except at QB, which is why I'm not that concerned about backing Bo Nix here.  The Broncos will be able to run the ball, which will open things up for Nix in the play-action passing game and he won't have to do it all on his own.

I obviously like the fact that the Broncos earned the No. 1 seed and a bye week.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they are the healthiest team in the NFL in these playoffs which is a huge advantage for them.  They have the best defense in these playoffs if it's not the Texans.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 278.2 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They are 2nd against the run at 91.1 yards per game, so they will be able to contain James Cook.

The Broncos have the best pass rush in the NFL ranking 1st in the league in sacks by a landslide with 68 sacks.  Josh Allen struggles against teams that can pressure the passer, and we saw that time and time again this season.  The Falcons rank 2nd in sacks, and the Bills were upset 24-14 in Atlanta and managed just 291 total yards.  The Browns were 3rd in sacks, and the Bills were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 win in Cleveland against Shedeur Sanders, managing just 259 total yards.  The Texans are 9th in sacks, and the Bills lost 23-19 in Houston to Davis Mills.

Sean Payton is 4-0 SU in the playoffs with extended prep time/rest.  The Broncos are extra motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Bills in Buffalo last year.  The Broncos are 13-2 SU in home games with Carl Cheffers as the head ref.  Sean Payton is 16-3 SU with Cheffers in his career as the head official.  The Bills are on a short week playing the early Saturday game after facing the Jaguars last Sunday.  I'll gladly back the more rested, healthier, team that is better everywhere but at QB in this game at home.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN MNF No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football dating back to 1992 when there have been fans in the stands.  Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 SU on Monday Night Football home or away.

The Steelers managed to beat the Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs in Week 18 to win the division and get into the playoffs.  They did it without their best weapon in DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD), a compliment to Aaron Rodgers and his ability to get the most out of this offense.  Rodgers threw for 294 yards and a TD in the win.

Now Metcalf is back and the Steelers are as healthy as they have been on offense all season.  No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin had 3 receptions for 55 yards and a TD against the Ravens in his return from injury.  Kenneth Gainwell is an absolute weapon out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 64 yards in the win.

The Steelers are also very healthy on defense right now and playing well.  They got TJ Watt back for the game against Baltimore, and he is good to go for the playoffs.  The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in sacks this season, and they are great at getting pressure on opposing QB's.  And I think that will be the difference in this game.

CJ Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He is also not very mobile and more of a pocket passer.  The Steelers will be getting after him for four quarters.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quicker than any other QB.  That helps negate Houston's pass rush, which ranks 9th in the NFL in sacks per game.  The Steelers will come up with creative ways to take away Houston's biggest strength, which is their pass rush.

The home-field advantage for the Steelers for a Monday Night game isn't being factored into this line enough.  This line should be much closer to PK.  So getting +3.5 with the Steelers at home is a tremendous value, which I grabbed early in the week.  I still think there's plenty of value at the current line of +3 as of this writing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closes +2.5.  I fully expect the Steelers to win this game outright.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* Chargers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Patriots have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense heading into the playoffs.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  They will hang a big number on the Chargers in this one, and the Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.

The Patriots do have inflated numbers defensive due to playing the weakest schedule of opposing QB's.  In their last two games against good QB's, the Patriots won 28-24 over Baltimore for 52 combined points and the Ravens stalled after Lamar Jackson got hurt.  They lost a 35-31 shootout to Josh Allen and the Bills for 66 combined points.

Justin Herbert is one of the best QB's in the NFL and his offensive line will be much healthier heading into the playoffs after the Chargers sat their starters last week.  He is also very mobile so the OL injuries haven't been much of a problem.  The Patriots have a great run defense, but their pass defense is their weakness, particularly their ability to get after opposing QB's.  They rank 25th in the NFL in sacks despite playing so many bad QB's and having big leads in most of their games.

This is a very short total for a game involving the Patriots.  The OVER is 9-2 in Patriots last 11 games overall.  The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 46 or more in eight of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 knowing that the No. 2 seed was still available.  Had they won, they would have been the No. 2 seed, but they lost to the Commanders.  It shows the confidence of this team and this coaching staff to know that as long as they are healthy going into the playoffs, they can beat anyone home or away.

The Eagles have gone 11-6 this season with their 'C+ game'.  They have had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but they have also just not opened the entire playbook on offense preferring to control games with their defense.  They have a lot more to give, and that playbook will be opened for the playoffs, where the Eagles have thrived in recent seasons.

Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game.  Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career, including 13-1 SU in December or later.  Hurts hasn't used his legs much all season to try and stay healthy, but he will be putting it all on the line in the playoffs, and his legs are the key to opening up this offense and maximizing it.

Brock Purdy is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Purdy will have his hands full against this Philadelphia defense, which profiles similarly to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Eagles can get pressure without blitzing, which was their key to winning the Super Bowl last year, especially shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the finale.

Well, the 49ers just played the Seahawks last week with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.  They lost 13-3 as they couldn't get anything going offensively.  It was an even bigger blowout than that 13-3 final showed as the Seahawks missed two field goals and kicked 4 of them.  The Seahawks outgained the 49ers 361 to 173, or by 188 total yards.  They also had 23 first downs compared to 9 for the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will be similarly dominant.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will get LT Lane Johnson back for the playoffs, and he is key to their success.  Philadelphia is 122-61-1 SU when Lane plays, and 18-29 SU when he doesn't.  The entire 2-deep for this Philadelphia defense is healthy, and that's bad news for the 49ers.  Kyle Shanahan hasn't scored more than 15 points against a Vic Fangio defense in his career as a head coach or coordinator.  He just can't figure it out, and he won't figure it out this weekend.

The worst unit of the entire playoffs is this banged up San Francisco 49ers defense.  They have been terrible without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pressure rate in the NFL.  Things have gone from bad to worse.  All three starting LB's were injured against the Seahawks.  Warner's backup Bethune (94 tackles) suffered a season-ending injury, while both Winters (101 tackles) and Gifford (35 tackles) are questionable after not practicing most of the week.  CB Green (59 tackles, 9 PD) is questionable as well.  What a mess this defense is, and the Eagles will be able to do whatever they want against them.

Injuries are a problem for the 49ers on offense as well.  LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall both missed the Seattle game.  Pearsall is very important because he is on the one reliable target that can get open consistently, but he re-aggravated his PCL injury and is doubtful.  Williams is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and he won't be able to do the things he normally would as far as blocking downfield even if he does play.  Purdy has some of the worst weapons in the NFL right now with Jennings and Robinson and his top two receivers.   They couldn't get separation against Seattle, and they won't be able to get separation against these star CB's of the Eagles in DeJean and Mitchell.  The Eagles rank 8th allowing 189.8 passing yards per game and 1st in completion percentage at 56.8%.

The Eagles played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season after winning the Super Bowl.  They had to face the Chiefs, Rams, Packers Lions, Bears, Chargers and Bills.  They held the Bills scoreless through 3 quarters on the road in the final game they tried to win in Week 17.  Nobody shuts down Buffalo at home, and they did just that.  The 49ers only faced five playoff teams all season.  They had a very soft schedule down the stretch that had them overvalued going into that Week 18 game against Seattle, and continues to have them overvalued in Wild Card weekend.  This game has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Bills/Jaguars AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Jacksonville +1

The Bills are getting too much respect for their playoff experience and what they've done in the past.  This matchup favors the Jaguars everywhere but at QB, but you could make the argument that Trevor Lawrence had the better season.  And with Josh Allen battling a toe injury that required X-Rays at the end of his two most recent games, he's clearly nowhere near 100%.

Buffalo kicker Matt Prater will be limited and didn't practice until late in the week.  Jacksonville has one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, who made both attempts of 67-plus this season.  He made 30-of-34 (88.2%) of his FG attempts this season including 8-of-10 from 50-plus.  He's an absolute weapon for them.

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 1st in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game during this span.  They did beat some bad teams during this stretch, but they also crushed two playoff teams in the Broncos 34-20 on the road and the Chargers 35-6 at home.  They are quietly playing better than anyone in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

Josh Allen is 7-0 at home in his playoff career, but those seven wins came against 40-year old Philip Rivers, Snoop Huntley, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, Bo Nix in his first career playoff start and Lamar Jackson, who is 3-5 in the playoffs.  The Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.  In fact, the Bills are 0-8 on the road in the playoffs over the last 33 years with their last road win coming in 1993.

Both teams have strong offenses, but the difference in this game is the Jaguars have the much superior defense.  That's especially the case against the run.  Teams that can shut down James Cook and make the Bills have to throw the ball have the most success against them.  The Jaguars are equipped to do just that.  They rank 1st in the NFL allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game.  The Bills rank 28th allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.  He also has two previous playoff starts under his belt and is ready for this moment.

The Bills had three of their worst games on the road this season.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites, lost 30-13 at Miami as 8-point favorites, lost 23-19 at Houston as 5-point favorites against Davis Mills, and escaped with a 23-20 win as 10.5-point favorites at Cleveland in their final road game of the season.  I'll gladly back the better, hotter, healthier home team as underdogs in this one.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Jaguars OVER 50.5

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game during this span.  The Jaguars are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 51 or more combined points in six of those 10 games.  This total of 50.5 is too short for a game involving the Jaguars right now.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.

The Jaguars will hang a big number on this soft, beat up Bills defense, and the Bills will have to go to a more pass-happy approach to try and keep up.  That will greatly benefit the OVER.  The Bills are potent themselves offensively ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.3 points per game, 4th in total offense at 376.3 yards per game and 4th at 6.1 yards per play.  They also know they won't be able to run it on Jacksonville's defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL against the run.  So they will be smart about it and keep the ball in Josh Allen's hands for four quarters.  This has shootout written all over it, especially with temps in the 60's and winds not being much of a factor.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Panthers/Bucs NFC South No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3

It's easy to see there's value on the Bucs -3 in Week 18.  They were 3-point road favorites at Carolina in their first meeting just two weeks ago, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bucs this week.

They are 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall so bettors want nothing to do with them.  That's the time you want to back a team when everyone is off of them.  The Bucs have lost four straight coin flip games all by 4 points or fewer.  They outgained three of their four opponents, so they were the better team in the stats but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.

What I like about the Bucs is that they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  Baker Mayfield gets LT Triston Wirfs back this week after he sat out last week, and this offense is fully healthy and capable of hanging a big number on Carolina.  The Bucs are also pretty healthy on defense and will activate their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey from IR this week.  They are really only missing a couple guys in the secondary now.

I don't think this young Panthers team is ready for this moment to go on the road and dethrone the Bucs, who have owned this division and come up clutch late in the season year after year.  I think they have one more clutch game in them to keep their hopes alive for winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Falcons could beat the Saints on Sunday and ruin that, but the Bucs know they have to handle their business first on Saturday for it to even matter.  The Panthers have the luxury of knowing they can lose this game and still win the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday.  The Bucs are in true 'must win' mode, while the Panthers are now.

The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division last week and fell flat on their faces in a 27-10 home loss to the Seahawks.  Their offense was held to 139 total yards by Seattle in a game that was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed even though it was close for a while.  This Carolina offense has averaged just 231.7 yards per game in its last three games and is broken.

The Panthers won't get back RG Robert Hunt this week, one of their best offensive linemen.  They also lost starting TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to the IR with an injury suffered last week.  Defensively, they will be without two starting LB's in Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace, plus they have some cluster injuries in the secondary.  DE Tershawn Wharton is questionable as well.

Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU in his career against the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home.  Bryce Young is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting.  Mayfield and the Bucs will be ready for the moment today while Young and the Panthers will not.  Bet the Bucs Saturday.

20* Rams/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams just put up 581 total yards in a 38-37 loss at Seattle last week in their first game without star WR Devante Adams.  If that's not the case for Matthew Stafford to win MVP I don't know what is.  This is the best offense in the NFL and it will be on display again tonight in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  

This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving the Rams, who have a suspect defense.  The Rams are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 59 points with Carolina, 62 with Arizona, 75 with Detroit and 75 with Seattle.

The Rams will get their points, and I think the Falcons can keep up in a shootout.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 26 points on the Cardinals last week.  Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are developing a great chemistry, and WR Drake London just returned from injury last week and should have a big game this week.

I also like the fact that both teams are great at running the football with two-headed monsters at RB, which makes things easier when they get into the red zone to put up touchdowns instead of field goals.  The Falcons have rushed for at least 111 yards in seven consecutive games, and the Rams have rushed for at least 119 yards in seven of their last eight games.

Both defenses have struggled against the run with the Falcons ranking 26th allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game and 25th at 4.6 yards per carry allowed.  The Rams allow 4.1 yards per carry and just gave up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries to the Seahawks last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak.  He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis.  He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots.  Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance.  The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.  

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game.  And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game.  They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller.  They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line.  The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season.  They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose.  It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks.  They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week.  They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch.  That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won.  They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game.  Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL.  He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run.  They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints.  I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets.  He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year.  It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game.  A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points.  They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points.  And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs.  The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying.  And that's the case with both of these teams.  I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17.  This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks.  This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards.  They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check.  The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.  

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points.  Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.  This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season.  They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week.  The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts.  This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain.  I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders.  In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football.  They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points.  Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss.  The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.  It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks.  The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami.  They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago.  Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play.  The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable.  Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation.  This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser.  My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more.  They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible.  Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season.  We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami.  Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again.  Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago.  This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now.  C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five.  That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what.  The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Ravens/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore +5

This will be a battle of backup QB's with the Ravens going with a healthy Tyler Huntley and the Packers going with a banged up Malik Morris who was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.  Jordan Love has been ruled out for this one with a concussion.

I actually think the Ravens have the better QB in Huntley and the better overall roster right now from a healthy standpoint.  They should not be catching this many points on the road as the only thing the Packers have going for them is home-field advantage.

The Ravens also have the motivational advantage.  They are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose this game, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  The Packers were just gifted a spot in the playoffs thanks to an upset loss by the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.  Now the Packers have a very slim chance to even improve their seeding as they'd need the Bears to lose their final two games while the Packers win their final two games to win the division.  That's pretty unlikely and they know it.

The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  This run dates back to Huntley's last start, a 30-16 home win over the Chicago Bears.  Huntley went 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and a TD while also rushing for 53 yards in the win.  I don't even think he's that big of a downgrade from the current version of Lamar Jackson, who has been playing through injury for weeks.  The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL even with the Jackson injury factored in.  They have everyone healthy on offense with the exception of Jackson and all their best players healthy on defense with all 11 starters.

The Packers are coming off consecutive losses to the Broncos 34-26 on the road and the Bears 22-16 on the road.  They needed to go to OT against the Bears last week, so that will make them even more tired coming into this one.  And the injuries are much worse than just Jordan Love.  They are missing arguably their two most important defenders in DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Micah Parsons.  SS Evan Williams is questionable.  

You can run up the middle against the soft part of this Green Bay defense, so expect Derrick Henry to have a big game.  The Ravens have rushed for an average of 192.3 yards per game in their last three games and rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  Offensively, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Tom and WR Christian Watson are all questionable.  They are already without C Elgton Jenkins to IR.  Baltimore has proven it has one of the best defenses in the NFL since a return to health nine games ago off their bye week.  They have allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last 10 games.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week.  They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat.  They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error.  They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury.  It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that.  The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton.  They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line.  Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards.  The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well.  Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week.  The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks.  I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense.  This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game.  The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.  

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0.  The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible.  With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games.  The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance.  Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five.  They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week.  While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary.  They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold.  They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today.  I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.  Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries.  I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate.  He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D.  It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions.  These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings.  This total of 43 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* 49ers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the NFL at the same time.  With this game being played indoors in perfect conditions in the dome in Indianapolis Monday night, look for a shootout to break out between the 49ers and Colts.

The 49ers are 4-0 since Brock Purdy returned from a toe injury.  They have averaged 31.0 points per game in those four games.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have plenty of weapons for Purdy to get the ball to.

The 49ers should hang another big number on this banged up Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are without their top two corners in Garnder and Ward, so expect Kyle Shanahan to go with a pass-heavy approach to take advantage of their biggest weakness.  That will also favor the OVER.

Philip Rivers came off the coach and nearly upset the Seahawks on the road in wet, windy conditions last week.  Now with a full week of practice, I expect even better things from Rivers and this passing offense this week.  The 49ers are fine letting teams throw the ball as they have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL due to all they are missing.

In fact, the 49ers rank 21st allowing 5.7 yards per play and 30th allowing 68.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Colts are pretty healthy on offense right now and have ample weapons for Rivers to be successful with Pittman, Pierce, Downs and Warren all healthy.  Of course, a big game from RB Jonathan Taylor will help ease the pressure.  

Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the game and has gotten the most out of his offenses with little talent at QB his entire time here.  Kyle Shanahan is also an offensive-minded head coach, and he has gotten the most out of Purdy and Mac Jones this season.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses tonight in a shootout.  

The 49ers are 7-3-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 47 or more combined points in seven of those 11 games.  The Colts and their opponents have combined for at least 46 points in 10 of their last 13 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Broncos OVER 46.5

Two thriving offenses square off in perfect scoring conditions for a shootout in Denver Sunday afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  I expect both offenses to continue thriving in this all-important game that could determine the top seed in the AFC.

Trevor Lawrence is playing at another level since getting a reliable #1 receiver in Jakobi Myers.  The Jaguars have now scored at least 25 points in seven consecutive games.  They just hung 48 on the Jets last week behind 6 total TD from Lawrence, which followed up 36 points against the Colts the previous week.  He and Liam Coen are in sync and hitting on all cylinders right now.

Bo Nix has shown he can take his game to the next level when he needs to.  He has one of the best games of his career last week in a 34-26 win over the Packers.  Nix threw for 302 yards and 4 TD against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  He will certainly thrive against this overrated Jacksonville defense that has played a bunch of weak offenses in recent weeks.

In fact, I think both defenses are overrated due to a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And we've seen some real shootouts in Denver with 65 combined points with the Giants, 68 with the Cowboys and 60 with the Packers in recent weeks.  The Jaguars have certainly tranded OVER on the road combining for 59 points with the Raiders, 65 with the Texans and 51 with the Cardinals in recent weeks.  This total of 46.5 is too short giving how well both offenses are playing.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Cardinals OVER 45.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver are expected to return this week to give him even more weapons.

The Falcons are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 46 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The lone exception was when the Saints got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed two more FG's.  Kirk Cousins is proving he still has what it takes, leading the 29-28 comeback in Tampa Bay last week with 476 total yards including 365 passing.

What was amazing was Cousins has been playing without Drake London, who is expected to return this week to make this Atlanta offense that much more potent.  Cousins, Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts should combine to have a monster game against this Arizona defense this week.

It's not like Atlanta is shutting down teams, either, so the Cardinals will get their points.  The Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games, including 27 or more six times during this stretch.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 47. or more combined points in five of those six.  This figures to be a shootout in perfect conditions in Arizona this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons ML -125

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 29-28 road win at Tampa Bay in which they racked up 476 total yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 138 yards.  That was a Thursday game, so this is a mini-bye week for the Falcons and they should come out of it fresh and ready to go.  They also come out of it healthier getting Drake London back in the lineup at WR to give Kirk Cousins a weapon he hasn't had in his time at QB.

The Falcons are poised to hang a big number on Arizona.  The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

It's no wonder the Cardinals are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games.  They have incentive to keep losing to improve on their draft pick, too, so they aren't rushing anyone back from injury.  They are also down multiple starters on the offensive line including LT Paris Johnson and LG Evan Brown this week.  Jacoby Brissett has his work cut out for him behind this makeshift offensive line.

The Falcons have the much better defense in this matchup.  They are at least an average unit on that side of the ball that gets pressure at one of the top rates in the NFL.  They rank 15th in total defense at 323.6 yards per game and 2nd in sacks at 3.4 per game.  There is almost zero home-field advantage for the Cardinals at this point in the season with nothing to play for.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints believe they have their QB of the future in Tyler Shough.  He is rapidly climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds with his great play here down the stretch.  And now Shough is primed for his best game yet against what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Jets.

The Jets know they don't have their QB of the future on their roster and have incentive to tank.  And with some moves they've made to sit numerous starters out, they are clearly trying to lose games right now.  It has shown by their play on the field in recent weeks, and this is more of a fade of the Jets than anything.

The Jets' 34-10 home loss to Miami two weeks ago looks really bad now when you consider Miami came back the next week and was blown out by Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Jets made Trevor Lawrence look like the best QB in the NFL as he accounted for 6 total touchdowns in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.

Giving up 34 points to that weak Miami offense and then 48 to Jacksonville shows just how poorly this defense is playing.  They have gotten much worse since trading away their two best defenders in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and it's really starting to show now that they are injured.  The Jets have eight defenders on IR including three starters in FS Adams, CB Brownlee and CB Thomas.  They have one of the worst CB rooms in the NFL.  They are also without starting LB Mauigoa and backup DE Watts this week.

I haven't even gotten to the offense, which is starting rookie Brady Cook.  If that's not a sign they are tanking I don't know what is because both Fields and Taylor are healthy enough to start.  Cook has been a disaster, completing 57.1% of his passes, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He doesn't have much help with WR Garrett Wilson out for the year and TE Mason Taylor out again this week.  This current version of the Jets might be the worst team in the NFL if it's not the Raiders.

The Saints have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Miami as 5-point dogs, upset the Bucs 24-20 as 7.5-point road dogs and upset the Panthers 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Panthers were coming off a bye week, too.  

While I like Shough and his dual-threat ability, it's this Saints defense that is grossly underrated.  The Saints have allowed just 17.8 points per game in their last five games.  They are fully healthy on defense right now too.  I expect the defense to shut down Cook, and Shough to make enough plays with his arm and his legs to lead New Orleans to a win by a TD or more.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Vikings/Giants OVER 44

The Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 44 or more combined points in all nine games, and 47 or more in eight of them.  This total of 44 is too short for a game involving the Giants.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

But Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston have kept the offense afloat scoring 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  They put up 382 total yards in a 29-21 loss to the Commanders last week.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense with the exception of the guys they lost early in the season.

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's and led the Vikings to 31 points against Washington in his return two weeks ago, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been a lockdown defense.  The Vikings have allowed 23 or more points in seven of their last nine games.  They just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys last week.  And now injuries are a major concern as they will be without both LB Jonathan Greenard (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and DE Javon Hargrave (45 tackles, 3 sacks) this week after both got hurt against Dallas.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs were not only eliminated from the playoffs last year, but they also lost their MVP QB in Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending injury.  They have since lost several other players to injury to will sit out this week, a clear sign the Chiefs don't mind tanking the rest of the way to get the best draft pick possible.

Offensively, the Chiefs will be without Mahomes, WR Rice, WR THornton, LT Simmons, RT Moore, and backup LT Morris.  Gardner Minshew has almost no shot behind this offensive line and lack of weapons this week.  Defensively, the Chiefs will be without DT Nnadi, CB McDuffie and LB Chenal who all suffered injuries last week.  What a mess.

The Titans have no incentive to lose because they have their QB of the future in Cam Ward and they are doing everything possible to get him going in the 2H of the season.  He is really playing well scoring 24 points on the Seahawks, 31 on the Browns and 24 on the 49ers in three of his last four games.  The Titans are very healthy on offense, too.

The Titans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by DE Jeffery Simmons and NT T'Vondre Sweat.  They will have their way with this makeshift KC offensive line, which will help alleviate some of the pressure on their secondary, which is their most banged up unit.  No matter how you slice it, the Titans are better than the Chiefs in their current state, and they should not be catching points at home as a result.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* Bucs/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Evans, McMillan, Egbuka, Godwin, Otton and Irving all playing in this game.  They just hung 28 points on the Falcons last week with most of these guys available, but now they will have everyone available this week.

The problem for the Bucs has been defense, where they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game during their 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch in their last six games.  They allowed 44 points to the Bills, 34 to the Rams, and most shockingly 29 points and 476 total yards to the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last week in their 29-28 defeat.  They do get some guys back from injury this week, but this is a bad, banged up defense.

The Panthers have some injuries of their own on defense that the Bucs can take advantage of.  They will be without DE Tershawn Wharton (36 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Trevin Wallace (60 tacklers, 2 sacks) this week.  This is a below-average Panthers defense as it is and missing two key starters along the front seven won't help matters.

I think Bryce Young and the Panthers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  They are fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of one offensive lineman.  Young has some great weapons in Dowdle and Hubbard at RB, plus McMillan, Legette and Coker at WR.  He has proven he can keep up with teams in shootouts just like he did in his last home game, a 31-28 win over the Rams for 59 combined points.  This game will play out similarly.

The Bucs and Panthers combined for 62 and 49 points in their two meetings last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both offenses will have their way with these suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's in a 31-0 win over Washington, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

The Giants have incentive to lose to get a better draft pick and they are playing like it.  The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with an 18-point loss in New England and an 8-point home loss to Washington in their last two games since Jaxson Dart returned from injury.  The problem isn't Dart and the offense, though, it's this pitiful defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

The best unit on the field should be this Minnesota defense, and I would give Minnesota's offense the advantage as well considering all the weapons McCarthy has to work with.  The Vikings should have no problem winning this game by a FG or more to get the cover.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Chargers/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 49.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall behind one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses.  They have gone for 49 or more combined points in nine of their last 11 games, including 57 or more combined points in eight of those contests.  Dallas home games are averaging 61.6 combined points per game this season.

The Cowboys rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.1 points per game and 1st in total offense at 396.9 yards per game.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game and 29th in total defense at 374.9 yards per game.  They are without CB Bland, and both CB Carson and DT Quinnen Williams are questionable.  Williams had to leave the game last week when they allowed 34 points to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

This total has been set too low due to the Chargers playing a string of bad offenses but good defenses in the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs in their last three games.  They are bound to get in a shootout with the Cowboys as Justin Herbert lights up their defense.  He has all of his top weapons healthy for this one and their offensive line will hold up against a Dallas defense that lacks a consistent pass rush.

The Chargers haven't played many elite offenses like the Cowboys this season, so their defensive numbers are a little skewed.  Against some of the better offenses they faced they allowed 38 points to the Colts and 35 to the Jaguars.  If one team gets into the 30's in this game it's going OVER, and it's very likely one team gets into the 30's if not both.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +3

Note: I released the Bears +3 Sunday night as soon as the lines came out.  The Packers had a ton of injuries against the Broncos that made this a 25* play at +3.  As of this writing on Friday, the Bears have flipped to the favorites.  I would take the Bears on the Money Line if you purchased this play later in the week.  It's still a 25* play -140 or better.

Few teams are playing as well as the Bears right now since they got healthy on defense.  It was a bit of a fluky start as they were living off turnovers, but that is no longer the case as the Bears are real contenders in their current state.  They proved that by going into Green Bay and taking the Packers to the wire two weeks ago.

The Bears were driving deep in Green Bay territory before throwing an interception in the end zone on 4th and 1 in the final seconds.  They would have gone for 2 and the win had they scored.  That was a very evenly-matched game in Green Bay, but the Bears will have the advantage at home this time around.  They are 5-1 SU at home this season and will have one of the most hostile crowds in franchise history with the NFC North title at stake in this game.

I became a Bears believer when they went into Philadelphia and manhandled the Eagles in a 24-15 victory as 7-point road dogs three weeks ago.  The Bears outgained the Eagles 425 to 317, or by 108 total yards.  What really stood out was they rushed for 281 yards on that Philadelphia defense, which is one of the best in the league.  The Bears had no letdown following that loss to the Packers two weeks ago, handling their business in a dominant 31-3 home win over the Browns last week.  They held the Browns to 192 total yards in the win.

The Bears are fully healthy on defense for the first time all season.  The offense will be without Odunze and Burden, but they were without Odunze last week too.  They have plenty of depth at receiver with Moore, Zaccheaus and Duverney, plus TE's Loveland and Kmet at real weapons.  But what I'm really banking on is the Bears to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and to run wild on the Packers in this one.

The Bears rank 2nd in rushing offense at 152.2 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per carry.  The two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai has been unstoppable, and Caleb Williams has utilized his legs well all season.  The Packers have been good against the run up to this point, but injuries on defense in recent weeks make them very vulnerable moving forward.

It's not just that they lost their best defensive player in Micah Parsons, either.  SS Evan Williams (85 tackles, 3 INT) left the 34-26 loss at Denver last week and hasn't practiced yet this week.  DE Knglsey Enagbare is questionable.  The Packers haven't really recovered since losing their best interior defender in DT Devonte Wyatt.  DE Collin Oliver has been ruled out.  What was a strength of the Packers all season has now turned into a weakness with one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.

The Packers suffered two key injuries in the loss to Denver on offense, too.  WR Christian Watson was hospitalized with a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play.  RT Zach Tom suffered another injury and is almost certainly out.  RB Josh Jacobs has yet to practice this week and is questionable.  Jacobs, Toms and Williams are more doubtful than questionable after missing practice all week.  

Teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games, including 0-6 ATS this season.  The travel after playing in the altitude on a short week is not a good spot to be in for Green Bay this week.  The Packers are falling apart at the seams heading into their biggest game of the season.  I think the Bears are finally positioned to dethrone them with their biggest win in years this weekend.  Bet the Bears Saturday.

15* Eagles/Commanders NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much credit for their 31-0 win over the hapless Raiders last week.  They beat a Raiders team with no offense that was playing a backup QB in Kenny Pickett.  It's a Eagles team that was 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games without outright losses as favorites to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers.  They were outgained by 108 yards by the Bears and by 134 yards by the Cowboys, too.

The Eagles certainly cannot be 7-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week when you consider they are still without two of their best players on RT Lane Johnson and DE Jalen Carter.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 13-26 SU when he doesn't.

Marcus Mariota has been a better QB than Jaden Daniels this season.  Mariota is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.7 per attempt for Daniels.  He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to 4.8 per carry for Daniels.  Time and time again the Commanders are getting disrespected because Mariota is their QB rather than Daniels.  This creates line value we can exploit.

Mariota has been awesome in his last two starts, a 27-26 (OT) home loss to the Broncos, who many believe are the best team in the AFC.  And last week he led the Commanders to a 29-21 road win over the New York Giants.  The team plays hard for him and loves him, and the offense is fully healthy with the exception of TE Ertz and LT Tunsil.  WR McClaurin, WR Samuel and RB Rodriquez are all good to go this week.

The Commanders are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on defense.  They held the Giants to 21 points last week.  DE Drake Jackson returns to bolster a defensive line that could use the help.  And it's not like the Eagles have been explosive on offense at any point this season.  This feels like it's going to be low-scoring, defensive battle so getting 7 points with the home underdog is tremendous value.

That's especially the case when you consider the Commanders always seem to play the Eagles tough.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by one score.  The lone exception was in the playoffs last season when the Eagles blitzed the Commanders on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  So this is Washington's first shot at revenge, and they will put their best foot forward.  The Eagles know in the back of their minds they only need to win one of their final three games to clinch the NFC East, so they aren't playing with much urgency right now.  Philadelphia hasn't won a road game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between the Rams and Seahawks Thursday night.  There will be rain throughout, but the bigger factor is 17 MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30's.  It's going to be hard for both offenses to throw the football, so this game will be played with a lot of heavy formations and mostly on the ground with a short passing game.

Seattle ranks 2nd in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 283.4 yards per game and 1st at 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 2nd allowing just 3.8 yards per rush.  In their first meeting this season, the Seahawks held the Rams to 21 points, 249 total yards and 5.0 yards per play.  Nobody has held the Rams down like they did this season, and that was in perfect weather in Los Angeles.

The Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game.  That's why many feel they are the best team in the NFL this season because they have no weaknesses.  But there is a chink in their armor now with WR Devante Adams out for this game with a hamstring injury.  He has 60 receptions for 789 yards and a league-high 14 TD this season.  The Rams are much easier to defend without having to worry about Adams.  Puka Nacua also had to leave the game last week with an injury late but came back in, and he may still be feeling the affects especially on this short week.

It's late in the season and Sam Darnold is regressing again.  The Seahawks managed just 18 points last week against the Colts in similar conditions.  They kicked six field goals and didn't reach the end zone.  In their previous home game, they beat the Vikings 26-0 but that was all defense.  They managed just 219 total yards against the Vikings that week.  

Darnold threw 4 interceptions and led the Seahawks to just 19 points in that first meeting with the Rams.  It saw just 40 combined points, again in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these division games because of it.  The conditions will be much worse for the rematch, and both defenses are well ahead of both offenses right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 6-7 and back in the conversation of the playoffs at least.  There is something about getting back to .500 on the season that is very motivating, and I think they will be 'all in' tonight to get back to that mark.

The Dolphins have been very impressive beating the Falcons by 24 on the the road, the Bills by 17 at home and the Jets by 24 on the road during this stretch.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, and their defense is absolutely balling out holding five of their last six opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The offense is lead by a potent rushing attack behind Achane and and Wright.  The Dolphins have rushed for 192.3 yards per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  That makes this a terrible matchup for the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose biggest weakness defensively is stopping the run.

Indeed, the Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens in their last two games coming in.  Now they got the bad news that TJ Watt suffered a punctured lung and is out this week.  Few defensive players are worth a point to the spread, and TJ Watt is one of them.  They are also without CB James Pierre and LT Andrus Peat plus his backup, and RB Jaylen Warren and DE Derrick Harmon is questionable.

I question Pittsburgh's motivation this week.  They are coming off a 27-22 win over their biggest rivals in the Ravens which sets them up to control the tiebreaker in the division.  They can not afford two more losses as long as they beat the Ravens at home in Week 18 and still win the division no matter what.  They aren't playing with the same kind of urgency as the Dolphins are tonight.

I also think this Pittsburgh offense is dreadful, and that's the reason the Steelers shouldn't be laying more than a FG at home tonight.  The Steelers rank 27th in total offense at 284.5 yards per game.  Their passing game is limited to dink and dunk, and their rushing game ranks 29th at 89.2 yards per game.  Mike Tomlin has worked miracle to get this team to 7-6, but they are no better than the 6-7 Dolphins and it will show on the field tonight.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Vikings/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER in all games this season with 44 or more combined points in all 13 games, and 49 or more in nine of them.  This total of 47.5 is very low for a game involving the Cowboys, especially at home indoors in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas' six home games this season have averaged 61.9 combined points.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.9 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game, 29th at 378.6 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense this week with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson good to go with their only starter out being LT Tyler Guyton, who they have been without for several weeks anyway.

The Vikings won the NFC North last season and as a result have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.  It has been a brutal schedule of opposing defenses that stands out more than anything.  After four straight losses to the Ravens, Bears, Packers and Seahawks, the Vikings finally got a reprieve last week.

The Vikings hung 31 points on the Commanders in JJ McCarthy's best game of his career with 3 TD passes and no picks.  I fully expect McCarthy and company to build off that performance and have another big game against this terrible Cowboys defense that just allowed 44 points to the Lions last week.  The Vikings are fully healthy on offense right now and McCarthy has some of the best weapons in the NFL, so he will be successful.

No question Minnesota has a good defense, but that defense has also benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses and playing in some poor weather in recent weeks.  Keep in mind the Vikings have recently allowed 27 points to the Ravens, 26 to the Seahawks, 24 to the Lions, 37 to the Chargers and 28 to the Eagles within their last eight games alone.  The Cowboys will get what they want against the Vikings, who love to play man-to-man coverage, and Dak Prescott kills that coverage.  The Cowboys will get a bunch of explosive plays in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and highly motivated for a victory that would put them in sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South surpassing the Tampa Bay Bucs with a win.  It's also a division game, so they need to secure the division record tiebreaker over the Bucs if they end up tied.

That's why I'm not concerned about them having a letdown following their 31-28 win as 10-point home underdogs over the Los Angeles Rams in the game going into their bye week.  The Panthers didn't have C Cade Mays, CB Jaycee Horn (5 INT) or LB Christian Rozeboom (91 tackles) in that win over the Rams.  All three are expected back this week, and now the Panthers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye and arguably THE healthiest.

The spot isn't nearly as good for the Saints.  They are coming off an upset 24-20 win at Tampa Bay as 7.5-point dogs last week.  That's a Bucs team that has now lost five of their last six games with their lone win coming by 3 over the Cardinals at home.  It's a Bucs team that was also missing a lot of key players due to injury and more got hurt throughout the game.  It's a Bucs team that went 2-of-7 on 4th down to pretty much hand over great field position to the Saints time and time again as well.

The Panthers also want revenge from a 17-7 home loss to the Saints on November 9th just a month ago.  That was a clear letdown spot coming off a 16-13 road win over the Packers as 13-point dogs the week prior.  They won't make that same mistake again here, not with what's at stake.  I fully expect them to put their best foot forward for this one.  It will be enough to win by a FG or more and cover this short number on the road.

The Saints have only won three games this season.  In their previous two wins, they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS following them losing by 6 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Patriots and by 14 as 1.5-point home favorites against the Falcons.  The Saints are 0-5 SU in their last five games against a team on extended rest, including 0-3 this season losing by 13.3 points per game.  New Orleans is 4-17 SU & 5-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2020, including 0-7 SU in their last seven games as a home dog.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with their sights set on earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  

Their three losses were all fluky as they led the Eagles by 19 in the 4th quarter and outgained them by 70 yards on the road.  They fumbled at the goal line going in for the game-winning score against the 49ers and outgained them by 49 yards.  And they were -3 in turnovers in a 3-point loss at Carolina.

The Rams have no weaknesses.  They are 3rd in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  The are outscoring teams by 11.7 points per game and outgaining them by 1.1 yards per play on the season.

The Rams are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.  Their defense is fully healthy with the exception of CB Quentin Lake.  CB Darious Williams returns to the lineup this week to help make up for it.

While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions, and I don't think Goff and company are capable of matching them score for score.  

No question Stafford, McVay and company have had this game circled.  They lost 26-20 (OT) at Detroit last year and 24-23 at Detroit in the playoffs two seasons ago.  They finally get the Lions at home this time around for the first time since 2021, which resulted in a 28-19 home win for the Rams in the first meeting between Stafford and Goff since the trade.  The Rams are going to want this one more to wreck Detroit's season.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 52.5

The Rams rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.

The Lions are nearly fully healthy on offense right now and showed what they were capable of last week when that's the case by hanging 44 points on the Cowboys.  As long as Jared Goff is indoors, he leads an elite Detroit offense that ranks 1st in scoring offense at 30.3 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play.

The Rams have a very good defense and will make life a little tougher on Goff than normal, but I still think the Lions will get to at least 24 points in this one.  What I am really counting on is the Rams scoring 30-plus with ease.  While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  

The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions.  It will be similar to last week when the Rams put up 45 points and 530 total yards on the Cardinals.  

The Lions are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in five of those six games, and 55 or more combined points in four of them.  The Rams have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games going for 59 combined points with Carolina and 62 with Arizona.  The books can't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.  

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Commanders/Giants OVER 46

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL especially in the 2H of the season.  The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.  The Commanders rank 28th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th at 382.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.

This Washington defense has now allowed at least 27 points in six of its last seven games overall.  They even allowed 31 points and 3 TD passes to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings stagnant offense last week.  Jaxson Dart and this Giants offense will hang a big number on them today, and they have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games overall so offense hasn't been the issue.  Interim head coach Mike Kafka is the offensive coordinator so they have been all offense and no defense since he took over.

But this Giants defense has been pitiful, allowing 33 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 24 or more in all seven.  Injuries are a problem without LB Thibodeaux and DE Nunez-Roches again today.  Marcus Mariota has actually been better than Jayden Daniels this season averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 per rush compared to 6.7 per pass attempt and 4.8 per rush for Daniels.  He will be without Zach Ertz, but the rest of his offense is healthy as he will have his top three receivers for basically the first time all season in McLaurin, Samuel and Brown.

I like backing OVERS between two teams who are out of playoff contention.  It tends to be a more relaxed game with offense over defense.  The Giants are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Browns/Bears OVER 39.5

This total of 39.5 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in 10 of their 13 games this season.  They have gone for 39 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 369.7 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles two weeks ago, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They deserved 28 points against the Packers last week but were intercepted in the end zone on the final play.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 357.3 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Shedeur Sanders is giving this Cleveland offense some life with more of a downfield passing game to stretch opposing defenses.  Sanders threw for 364 yards and 3 TD in a 31-29 loss to the Titans last week.  He did everything in his power to win the game, but the defense let him down.  They allowed 184 rushing yards to the Titans, and the Bears are one of the best running teams in the NFL and will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.

The Browns have notoriously been much worse defensively on the road than they have been at home, too.  That has been the case again this season as the Browns are allowing 27.8 points per game on the road.  I think Chicago can get to 27 in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  With the poor weather, don't be surprised if there is a defensive or special teams TD in this one as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored by double-digits over the Raiders at home.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 309.4 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 341.6 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 32.2 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed in their last home game two weeks ago allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-26 SU when he doesn't.  It's also a terrible spot for the Eagles off a short week and off an OT loss in Los Angeles on Monday.  The fans are fed up with them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, and don't be surprised to hear the boo birds all game, which would make this almost a negative home-field advantage for the Eagles.

I think the Raiders will get a spark by starting Kenny Pickett instead of Geno Smith this week.  Pickett is a former Eagle that will relish this opportunity to go against his former team.  Smith is washed up and having the worst season of his career, so it can only be an upgrade.  I was impressed with Pickett in leading the Raiders to 10 points in the 4th quarter once he took over for an injured Smith.  He went 8-of-11 passing for 97 yards and a TD in that 4th quarter against Denver's elite defense.  His mobility makes him much tougher to defend than the statue Smith.

The Raiders have an underrated defense that ranks 16th in total defense at 325.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 5th in the NFL allowing just 3.9 yards per rush, so their biggest strength is stopping the run.  The Eagles rank 22nd at 4.1 yards per carry on offense.  That's big here because it is supposed to be very windy in Philadelphia today so this game will largely be played on the ground.  The Raiders will be able to hold up, and with scoring suppressed due to the weather conditions, getting 13 points here with Las Vegas is too much.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* Eagles/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Chargers came out of their much-needed bye week with a dominant 31-14 home win over the Raiders as 10-point favorites.  They are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Yes, Justin Herbert will be playing with a hand injury, but it's on his non-throwing hand and we've seen Aaron Rodgers be just fine with basically the same injury.  The offensive line has some injuries, but these backups have had a lot of playing time and are starting to gel now.

While I like this Chargers offense with Herbert and some of the best weapons he's ever had plus RB Omarian Hampton returning from IR this week, it's the Chargers defense that is leading this team.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 275.2 yards per game and are showing what they are capable of when fully healthy on that side of the ball.

The Chargers have been dominant at home this season from a statistical perspective.  They are averaging 371.8 yards per game at home and allowing just 266 yards per game at home, outgaining opponents by 105.8 yards per game.  It's no longer a lackluster home-field advantage like it used to be.  Fans are excited about the direction Jim Harbaugh has this franchise heading.

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored on the road here.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 304.8 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 347.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 42.4 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed last week in allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 home loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-25 SU when he doesn't.

Jalen Hurts is actually just 1-5 ATS in his next game after an upset loss as a home favorite, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite in his next game.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games.  Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher in his career.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.