20* Eagles/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Chargers came out of their much-needed bye week with a dominant 31-14 home win over the Raiders as 10-point favorites.  They are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Yes, Justin Herbert will be playing with a hand injury, but it's on his non-throwing hand and we've seen Aaron Rodgers be just fine with basically the same injury.  The offensive line has some injuries, but these backups have had a lot of playing time and are starting to gel now.

While I like this Chargers offense with Herbert and some of the best weapons he's ever had plus RB Omarian Hampton returning from IR this week, it's the Chargers defense that is leading this team.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 275.2 yards per game and are showing what they are capable of when fully healthy on that side of the ball.

The Chargers have been dominant at home this season from a statistical perspective.  They are averaging 371.8 yards per game at home and allowing just 266 yards per game at home, outgaining opponents by 105.8 yards per game.  It's no longer a lackluster home-field advantage like it used to be.  Fans are excited about the direction Jim Harbaugh has this franchise heading.

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored on the road here.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 304.8 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 347.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 42.4 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed last week in allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 home loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-25 SU when he doesn't.

Jalen Hurts is actually just 1-5 ATS in his next game after an upset loss as a home favorite, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite in his next game.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games.  Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher in his career.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  After winning five straight games all by 7 points or more, the Ravens suffered a massive letdown on Thanksgiving Day with a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites.  No question getting Burrow back helped the Bengals, but it was a comedy of errors by the Ravens as they fumbled going into the end zone for a touchdown as part of their 5 turnovers.

It was Jeff Monken's worst play-calling game of the season as the Ravens got too pass-happy against the Bengals.  Now they will get back to running the football against a Pittsburgh defense that has been shockingly bad against the run.  The Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills last week in a 26-7 home loss.

This Pittsburgh offense is even worse with a banged-up Rodgers at QB and no weapons.  The Steelers managed just 166 total yards against the Bills, who also have a bad defense.  Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense at 281.7 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  Compare that to the Ravens, which averaged 317.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play and the Ravens have the much better offense.  Those numbers include all the games missed by Jackson, too.

Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense allowing 365.1 yards per game.  This isn't your classic Mike Tomlin defense, in fact it's probably the worst one he's ever had.  It's an old, banged up defense.  The Steelers will be without DE Derrick Harmon and SS Kyle Dugger, plus they have eight defenders on IR already.  The Ravens should be able to get whatever they want against them.

Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL.  The return to health since the bye week has made all the difference during this 5-1 run.  The offense has scored at least 23 points in five of their last six games and easily should have topped that number against the Bengals if not for the five turnovers.  The defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons had a chance to get back in the NFC South title race last week with a win.  Instead, they lost on a last-second field goal to the lowly Jets to fall to 4-8 on the season and out of contention.  They have suffered gut punch after gut punch with two OT losses and a missed XP in a 1-point loss to the Patriots during their 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS run in their last seven games.

I don't think the Falcons get back up off the mat this week after that last-second loss to the Jets.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.  And the Falcons in their current state have no chance of keeping this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons were already without QB Michael Pennix Jr. and WR Drake London.  They were hopeful to get London back this week, but now that they are out of playoff contention he's not going to go.  They have nine players out or on IR on offense.  The defense is worse with 12 players out or on IR.  They have allowed 26.0 points per game in their last six games.

The Seahawks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is the best mark in the NFL.  They have no weaknesses and one of the best defenses in the NFL.  This healthy defense is showing what it's capable of holding the Rams to 249 total yards and the Vikings to 162 total yards in two of their last three games.  They held the Titans in check for three quarters with a three-touchdown lead before letting go of the rope in the 4th with the game in hand.  They didn't make that mistake last week in a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Their defense wasn't healthy early but it is now and wreaking havoc on teams.  This is a big step down in class for Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense that has been a little disappointing in recent weeks against the Rams, Titans and Vikings, which are three great defenses.  They will get back going here indoors against this bad Atlanta defense that just allowed 27 points to the Jets last week.  This has blowout written all over it given all the factors and I can't believe we are getting Seattle as less than a TD favorite.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Bucs UNDER 42

This will be a rematch from one of the ugliest games of the season in New Orleans in their first meeting on October 26th.  The Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in a game that saw just 487 yards of total offense.  The Bucs only had 212 yards while the Saints had 275 yards.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these divisional matchups as a result.

The Saints are broken on offense.  They rank 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game, 26th in total offense at 296.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  But they have an underrated defense, one that ranks 12th in total defense at 314.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.

This combination of a terrible offense and underrated defense has led to the Saints going 7-0-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 44 or fewer combined points with their opponents in all eight games, and 40 or fewer in six of them.  This total of 42 is pretty high for a game involving the Saints right now.

The Bucs are also broken on offense right now.  Baker Mayfield is playing through injury, and he's doing so without two of his best weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.  His best lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs is banged up and questionable.  The Bucs went UNDER the total in their last two games with 41 combined points with the Rams and 37 with the Cardinals.

Mayfield was injured in a 34-7 loss to the Rams.  The Bucs managed just 203 total yards in that game.  He returned last week and the Bucs managed just 20 points and 279 total yards against the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses in the NFL that was giving up big points and yards to everyone prior to that game.  

The Saints will hold the Bucs in check, too.  And a pretty much fully healthy Bucs defense will make life tough on a Saints offense that is missing RB Alvin Kamara and RT Taliese Fuaga.  Tyler Shough is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and WR Chris Olave is nowhere near 100% even though he is expected to play.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams in this one.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bucs and Saints with 36 or fewer combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The Saints rank dead last (32nd) in red zone TD percentage (38.7%) while the Bucs rank 25th (50%).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Bills OVER 50.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team especially now with Joe Burrow at QB.  In his first game back from injury, Burrow led the Bengals to 32 points against a very good Baltimore defense.  He didn't even have Tee Higgins due to a concussion, and Higgins is back this week.  The Bengals are basically fully healthy on offense now.

But this Cincinnati defense is the reason they are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 31.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 410 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  It was a fluke they only allowed 14 points to the Ravens, who fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback as part of their 5 turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.

The Bills will hang a big number on the Bengals at home, where their offense has shined this season.  The Bills are scoring 32.5 points per game and allowing 26.0 points per game at home this season.  They get both TE Dalton Kincaid and LT Dion Dawkins back from injury this week, who they didn't have in scoring 26 points on the Steelers last week with a ground-heavy approach.

Both teams are great at inside zone runs, and both defenses are terrible at defending inside zone runs.  The reason I don't believe the Bills are a real Super Bowl contender is a leaky defense.  And that defense will be without DE Joey Bosa and LB Terrel Bernard this week.  They are all banged up in the secondary as well, so Burrow should feast through the air and Brown should have a big day on the ground.

The forecast is actually going to favor a shootout even though there will be snow.  There will be no wind, which is the biggest factor.  The snow actually favors the offensive players because they know where they are going, while the defenders have to react and that's where the slips happen.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys came back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

Speaking of Kansas City, Dallas won 31-28 as 3.5-point home dogs over the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.  They racked up 457 total yards on the Chiefs and held them to 362 yards, outgaining them by 95 yards.  So the Cowboys are now coming off consecutive wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year and two of the better teams in the NFL this year.  There will be no letdown here with this being a National TV game and the Cowboys still on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 393.1 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 29.2 points per game.

The Lions are broken and one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 16-9 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point dogs and needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT as 14-point favorites over the Giants at home.  Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  The Lions then lost 31-24 as 3-point home favorites to the Packers last week.

 It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now.  FS Kerby Joseph, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  SS Brian Branch is questionable.  The Cowboys are going to get whatever they want against this suspect Detroit defense that was shredded by the Giants and Packers at home the last two weeks.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright and WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Four starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, LG Kayode Awosika, RT Penei Sewell and C Graham Glasgow.  What a mess.  

But the biggest blow came last week when star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the Packers game with an ankle injury.  He hasn't practiced yet this week and is very doubtful to play tonight.  Jared Goff is going to be throwing to guys you've probably never heard of in TeSlaa, Kennedy, Lovett, Dwelley, Firkser and Rucci.  He's also going to be under duress all game and hates pressure up the middle, where Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark reside and will wreak havoc against the run and pass up the middle.

Given the health of the Cowboys compared to the health of the Lions, the wrong team is favored here.  I cannot believe this line opened +3.5 on the Cowboys this week.  I would make them a 25* at any underdog price, so +3 as of this writing is good too.  Make sure to put at least 25% of your bet on the Cowboys money line as well.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +3

Just looking at this from a line value perspective, it's clear there's value on the Jets +3.  The Falcons were 2-point road underdogs last week to the New Orleans Saints.  Now they are 3-point road favorites over the Jets.  I have the Jets and Saints power rated about the same, so this 5-point adjustment in favor of the Falcons has gone too far.

That was a fluky 24-10 win at New Orleans.  The Saints missed 2 FG's and scored 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They simply got nothing out of their scoring opportunities, while the Falcons got one big play to blow it open.  That misleading final has the Falcons overvalued this week.

Remember, the Falcons are still without two of their best players in QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London this week.  It's. Falcone team that had lost five straight prior to that win over the Saints, including two OT losses.  It's a tired Atlanta team playing for an 8th consecutive week now with a couple OT losses sprinkled in.  Injuries remain a problem down two O-Line starters and possibly a 3rd, plus 9 defenders on IR or ruled out.

Kirk Cousins played fine indoors in perfect elements in New Orleans.  It will be a different story here outdoors in the elements in New York.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation and double-digit winds forecast with gusts up to 30 MPH.  His lack of arm strength will be much more noticeable here.

What makes the Jets grossly overvalued is the wild stat where they don't have a INT all season, and they have forced just one turnover.  That is unheard of and just shows how unlucky they have been.  The Jets rank great from a success rate perspective defensively.  They are 14th in total defense at 321.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  They held the Ravens to just 241 total yards last week.

Look for Breece Hall and this Jets rushing attack to have a lot of success against the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 26th against the run at 133.1 yards per game and 23rd at 4.6 yards per carry.  This is simply a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.  I have the Jets favored at home here.

The Falcons are 11-23-1 ATS following a win since 2020.  Teams coming off a win that ended a 5-plus game losing or more are just 6-15 SU & 8-11-2 ATS over the last five years.  Tyrod Taylor is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when the team he is playing for is under .500.  The Falcons are 0-4 SU in outdoor games this season getting outscored by 11.8 points per game in those four losses.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The weather will be similar to the last time Brock Purdy traveled to Cleveland a few years ago.  It was a rainy, windy game where he finished just 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a INT and a fumble in a 19-17 road loss.  Purdy is coming off a 3 INT game against Carolina in his first game back from injury.  He is notoriously bad in poor weather games like this one.

Temps will be in the 30's with 25 MPH sustained winds and gusts of over 40 MPH at times.  The total for this game had cratered to 35.5 as of this writing, but the spread has not cratered with it.  The lower the total the more value there is on the underdog, and boy has there been value on the Browns as a home underdog all season.

Indeed, the Browns are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 1 to the Bengals as 4.5-point dogs with Joe Burrow.  They upset the packers as 7.5-point dogs.  They crushed the Dolphins 31-6 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they hung right with the Ravens in a 7-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Shadeur Sanders made his first start for the Browns last week and led them to a 24-10 win at Las Vegas.  He at least gives them the threat of the deep ball as Dillon Gabriel gave them nothing in that department.  It was a move the Browns should have made a long time ago to see what they had in Sanders, and he at least gives them a little more life.

But this comes down to this Cleveland defense, which has been dominant at home.  The Browns are allowing just 14.0 points per game, 235.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play at home this season despite facing some very good QB's in Lamar, Burrow, Love and Tua.  Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.  The Browns are actually 13-5 SU at home against teams that are above .500 on the season.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team that hasn't had their bye yet.  That makes this spot even worse for them on a short week after beating the Panthers at home on Monday Night Football.  They will be playing for a 13th consecutive week and their 4th road game in 6 weeks with a lot of travel involved in between, plus the distraction of Thanksgiving Week.

This is a bad, bad San Francisco defense.  The 49ers allowed 488 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 42 points to the Rams three weeks ago, 24 points to the Giants four weeks ago and 475 total yards to a bad Texans offense five weeks ago.  This defense has been much worse on the road, allowing 22.7 points per game, 372 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.

The injury situation isn't any better for the 49ers on defense this week, either.  They were already without DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson.  Now they will be without two more starters this week as DE Okuayinonu and LB Bethune have been ruled out.  The Browns have a dominant offensive line, and that offensive line should win the battle at the line of scrimmage against this decimated 49ers defense.  That will be the difference in the game.  The 49ers only rush for 99.2 yards per game (26th) and 3.6 per carry (31st) this season so they have struggled to move the ball on the ground.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Panthers OVER 45

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They have a respectable offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is terrible and decimated by injuries right now.  They have no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rams offense, who will lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a big number on Carolina.

This total is lower than it should be due to both teams coming off low-scoring games.  The Rams benefited from Baker Mayfield getting injured last week.  It was a brutal beat for over backs as the Rams and Bucs combined for 38 points at halftime, but only combined to score 3 points after intermission.  The Rams sat on the ball knowing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater could do nothing to move the football.  The Rams won't have that luxury this week and will have to keep scoring as Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown time and time again they will keep coming.

The Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers.  That game was also fluky.  Brock Purdy threw 3 INT and almost all of them were deep in Panthers territory to take away points.  Bryce Young threw a INT at the 1-yard line on 1st down to take a TD off the board.  It was a fluky result and should have seen more combined points than it did.  But we'll take advantage here and bet the OVER in a 'buy low' spot off two teams coming off unders last week.

The Rams rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 9th in total offense at 358.4 yards per game and 7th at 5.9 yards per play.  Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and he has his full compliment of weapons for this one with Adams, Nacua and Williams plus Tutu Atwell returns from injury this week.

The Panthers will be without three starters on defense this week.  They were already without leading tackler Chrstian Rozeboom (91 tackles), but now they will be without their best CB Jaycee Horn and starting SS Tre'Von Moehrig.  Horn suffered a concussion against the 49ers last week, and Moehrig is suspended for punching Jauan Jennings in the balls.  They can't afford to be without these guys if they want any chance of slowing down this Rams offense.

Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 49 points in five of its last nine games.  The Rams will be without starting CB Quintin Lake, plus FS Kamren Kitchens and NT Poona Ford are questionable.  Young will find some success against this Los Angeles secondary and I look for the Panthers to keep coming to get us this OVER.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind, so scoring conditions are good.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bengals/Ravens NBC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7

Note: I like a 3-team 7-point teaser at +120 on Ravens PK, Cowboys +10.5 & Packers +10 on Thanksgiving Day.  6-Point teaser pairings with the Ravens -1 I like are Packers +8.5 or better, Jets +8.5 or better and Patriots -1.5 or better.

The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much respect due to the return of Joe Burrow this week.  Burrow is a notoriously slow starter every NFL season, and this will be just like his first start of the season.  He isn't anywhere near 100%, and there's talk of him only being able to play out of the shotgun because his toe is limiting him that much.  He won't be prime Joe Burrow in his first game back from injury.

The Ravens are on a mission to win the AFC North and have played up to their potential since getting healthy.  The Ravens are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS since their bye week with all five wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game.  They beat the Bears by 14 and the Jets by 13 in their two home games during this stretch.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL now that they are healthy.  They have allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games and and average of just 14.0 points per game in their last six games.  They are fully healthy on offense and defense with the exception of backups with WR Rashod Bateman back to give the offense an added weapon.

The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 32.7 points per game, dead last in total defense at 415.8 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  They are without three of their best defenders in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shamar Stewart and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  DE Cam Sample is questionable as well.  

The Ravens are going to get whatever they want against the Bengals.  What really excites me is the thought of the power zone concepts that the Ravens run against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last against that concept.  Derrick Henry is in line for a monster day against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st allowing 156 yards per game and 29th at 5.1 yards per carry.  

Lamar Jackson is 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS vs. Burrow in their careers.  Night game favorites on Thanksgiving are 14-4 ATS since 2006.  Lamar Jackson is 5-0 SU in his career in early week games (before Sunday) winning by an average of 14 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Chiefs/Cowboys UNDER 52.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They go on long, methodical drives on offense and are one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They also have one of the best defenses in the league.

The Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 49 or fewer combined points in all six games.  This total of 52.5 is very high for a game involving the Chiefs.  They even played some high-powered offenses in the Lions, Bills and Colts during this 6-0 UNDER run.

The Cowboys will have one of the best defenses in the NFL moving forward.  got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

In their first game with everyone back plus the addition of Williams, they held the Raiders to 236 total yards including just 27 rushing.  Last week, they held the Eagles to 21 points and 339 total yards, including just 63 rushing.  These Cowboys totals were justified being so high in the first half of the season when they had no defense, but this total of 52.5 is too high for a game involving these two elite defenses now.  

The Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game and 6th in total defense at 293 yards per game.  Kansas City will be without two key players on offense RG Trey Smith and TE Noah Gray.  The Cowboys will be without LT Tyler Guyton this week.  The Chiefs do get RB Isaiah Pacheco back, which will give them more confidence to try and run the ball more, which will also benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Cowboys CBS No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys have a ton of momentum after coming back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles last week.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

The Chiefs are coming off a huge 23-20 (OT) win at home over the Colts.  That game went deep into OT before the Chiefs eventually kicked the game-winning FG with two minutes left.  That means their team was on the field for a lot of plays and nearly an extra full quarter.  Now this is a tough spot for them on a short week with travel involved.  Three key players suffered injuries in that game that they will be without this week in RG Trey Smith, TE Noah Gray and CB Chris Roland-Wallace.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 387.3 yards per game and 4th in scoring at 29.1 points per game.

The Chiefs are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all road games this season with their only win coming against Russell Wilson and the New York Giants.  They lost to the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos, and the Cowboys are good enough to beat them at home here.  At the very least this line should be PK, so getting Dallas +3.5 is a tremendous value.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot like the Chiefs are 9-28 SU & 11-25-1 ATS.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Chiefs are 0-5 SU in their last five road games against Dallas.  Dak Prescott is 5-0 SU in his last five home games in an early week spot winning by 11.2 points per game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Packers/Lions FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +3

The Packers are the better, healthier team with the much better defense.  This line suggest the Lions are the better team, but that's just not the case right now.  I'll gladly take the value and the full 3 points with the road underdog Packers.  Matt LaFleur is 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more as the head coach of the Packers.

Teams on short rest off an OT game against a team that's not off a OT game are 26-48 SU & 24-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  These teams are 6-21 SU & 5-22 ATS in Thursday games during this span.  The Lions are in this dreadful spot off a 34-27 (OT) home win over the New York Giants as 14-point favorites.  They needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT.

Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now and was on the field for 76 plays against the Giants.  FS Kerby Joseph, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  CB Terrion Arnold and DE Marcus Davenport are questionable.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright, WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Three other starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, RG Tate Ratledge and RT Penei Sewell.  What a mess.

The Packers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft, WR Jayden Reed and backup WR Savion Williams.  WR Matthew Golden is questionable after sitting out last week, so there's a good chance he returns this week.  RB Josh Jacobs returns to form a great 1-2 punch with Emanuel Wilson, who rushed for for 107 yards and 2 TD in Jacobs' absence in a 23-6 win over the Vikings last week.

The Packers may have the best defense in the NFL right now.  They were only on the field for 39 plays last week and held the Vikings to just 145 total yards.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 4th in total defense at 278.7 yards per game.  They are also 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.

The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 in the season opener while holding Detroit to 246 total yards.  That was before they traded for Micah Parsons, and their defense has been even better with him since.  Parsons and company will wreak havok in the opposing backfield up against this banged-up Detroit offensive line and make life tough on Jared Goff once again.  The Packers have held eight of 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and only one team has scored more than 25 against them all season.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Panthers/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are back to near full strength on offense and have one of the best offenses in the league when that's the case.  But their defense is as injured as any defense in the NFL right now and they just cannot stop anyone.  That forces them to try and win shootouts week after week.

The 49ers are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  That includes 63, 68 and 58 points in their last three games coming into this one.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 49ers right now.

Brock Purdy returned to lead the 49ers to a 41-22 win at Arizona last week.  Purdy went 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and 3 TD win the win.  He found George Kittle 6 times for 67 yards and 2 TD.  Kittle recently returned from injury, and now Rickey Pearsall is back after making his return last week.  He should get targeted much more this week.

It was a miracle the 49ers only gave up 22 points to the Cardinals when you consider they allowed 488 total yards.  Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 452 passing yards despite not having all of his top weapons at receiver, including Marvin Harrison Jr.  This came a week after allowing 42 points and 401 total yards to the Rams.

The 49ers have been lost without their two leaders on defense in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner.  The injuries keep piling up as DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson are both on IR, DE Beal Jr. and LB Bethune are both out, and LB Gifford is questionable.  The Panthers should be able to get whatever they want both on the ground and through the air against this 49ers mash unit.

Bryce Young led the Panthers to a 30-27 (OT) comeback win in Atlanta from 14 points down last week.  It was the best game of his career as he went 31-of-45 passing for 448 yards and 3 TD in the win.  With WR's McMillian, Legette and Coker and RB's Dowdle and Hubbard, the Panthers have some of the most underrated playmakers in the league.  They are also fully healthy on offense with the exception of C Cade Mayes, but backup C Austin Corbett has plenty of experience starting in his place.

The Panthers have injury concerns of their own on defense with both starting LB's Rozeboom and Wallace out for this game.  Those are huge losses as Rozebook has 91 tackles while Wallace has 52 tackles and 2 sacks.  You know Kyle Shanahan will scheme it up to exploit those weaknesses in the middle of this Carolina defense.

The Panthers are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  So this total of 47.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both offenses will have their way with these two defenses Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints ML +115

Note: I released this play early in the week when the Saints were underdogs.  I would lay up to -150 with the Saints.

The spot really favors the Saints.  They are coming off their bye week and have a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore who will get the most out of this bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with only two starters listed as questionable this week, so they come out of the bye week healthy, rested and ready to go.

Look for them to pick up where they left off after a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers going into their bye.  That was a more dominant result than the final score showed.  The Saints outgained the Panthers 388 to 175, or by 213 total yards.  Tyler Shough went 19-of-27 passing for 282 yards and 2 TD in the win and looks to be an upgrade from Spencer Rattler.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Falcons.  They have lost five straight with the last three being gut-wrenching losses after getting blowing out by the 49ers and Dolphins.  Three weeks ago they lost by 1 at New England after a missed XP, two weeks ago they lost in OT by 6 to the Colts in London, and last week they lost by 3 in OT after blowing a 14-point lead to the Panthers.  

The Falcons now sit at 3-7 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention and they know it.  They especially know it now that QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.  They completed folded after he left the game and was replaced by Kirk Cousins last week against the Panthers.  Making matters worse, they will also be without their best receiver in Drake London (60 receptions, 810 yards, 6 TD) this week.

The Falcons injuries don't stop there.  They are without two starting offensive linemen and another two starters are questionable.  They have nine defenders on IR or out and LB Leonard Floyd is questionable.  They have been pitiful on both sides of the ball, especially defensively during this stretch.  And their offense has been atrocious with Cousins at QB.

We saw what Cousins could do with a full week of prep already, losing 34-10 at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins.  He is absolutely washed.  He is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 52 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.  The defense is just as big of a concern, allowing 29.8 points per game in their last four games.  They just allowed 486 total yards to the Panthers last week after giving up 519 yards to the Colts in London.  All this travel and all these OT losses will take their toll this week.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU at home in his career against NFC East opponents.  That includes 6-1 SU against the Philadelphia Eagles.  He does not lose at home, and he has this Cowboys offense rolling this season and ready to take down the Eagles this week.

But the difference for the Cowboys is their defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and I think the matchup is a great one for them because they should have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

If anyone can stop the tush push the Eagles love to run, it's the Cowboys.  This Philadelphia team has been getting away with murder this season winning almost every close game.  The Eagles are overrated due to their 8-2 record, and they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Cowboys.  While the Eagles have a great defense, their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and will get shut down here.

The Cowboys rank 2nd in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game, 6th at 6.0 yards per play and 9th at 4.7 yards per carry.  The Eagles rank 16th scoring 23.4 points per game, 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, 24th at 5.3 yards per play and 25th at 3.9 yards per carry.  

Their offense is broken, and now they will be without their most important offensive lineman in LT Lane Johnson for this game.  Their numbers with him in and out of the lineup are staggering.  The Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn't over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note: I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs.  Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey.  The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco.  Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it.  The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play.  The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one.  Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores.  Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week.  And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet.  They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday.  You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry.  So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.  This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later.  Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS.  The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.  They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts.  They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts.  This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7.  They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss.  I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling.  The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy.  Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs.  I think they put their best foot forward as a result.  The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season.  They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games.  Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores.  And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home.  But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season.  They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games.  The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable.  The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week.  That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points.  That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it.  His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense.  It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week.  DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out.  After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week.  Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since.  The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Texans AFC No-Brainer on Houston +6

I'll gladly take 6 points with the best defense in the NFL at home against anyone.  The Texans rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 258.1 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play.  They are pretty much 1st or 2nd in every major defensive statistic this season.

That's why they can get away with having backup QB Davis Mills.  I think Mills is one of the best backups in the NFL, and it's not that much of a downgrade from CJ Stroud to him, especially with how healthy everyone else is around him right now.  Mills is completng 60% of his passes for 726 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, mostly from the last two weeks.  Hew threw for 293 yards against the Jaguars and 274 yards against the Titans the last two weeks.

The Texans are fully healthy outside of Stroud and NB Jalen Pitre.  That makes them a dangerous team right now.  The Bills are far from full strength, which makes them vulnerable and explains how poorly they have played on the road this season.  The Bills are without TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel and WR Mecole Hardman on offense.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, SS Taylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin on defense.

Injuries along the defensive line are a big reason the Bills rank 31st in rushing defense allowing 153.0 yards per game and 31st at 5.4 yards per carry allowed.  The Texans know they can get what they want on the ground with Woody Marks and company, which will take a lot of pressure off of Mills having to do it all with his arm.

Two of the Bills worst performances came in two of their last three road games.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta and 30-13 at Miami.  Josh Allen isn't nearly as good on the road, and he had one of the worst games of his career the last time he faced Houston on the road.  Last season, Allen went 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 road loss to the Texans.  Houston outgained Buffalo 425 to 276 in that contest, or by 149 total yards.

In their last two games with Mills at QB, they outgained the Jaguars 412 to 213, or by 199 total yards.  They outgained the Titans 315 to 229, or by 86 yards.  That was a Titans team coming off a bye and getting several key players back as well as it was a tricky spot.  The Texans need wins like blood sitting at 5-5 on the season and need this win more than the Bills do.  They haven't lost at home by more than 3 points all season, and they have just one home loss by more than 5 points over the last two seasons combined.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.

20* Eagles/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season.  They predictably got off to a slow start with a bunch of narrow wins, and it eventually caught up to them.  But after an upset loss to the Giants, the Eagles have turned a corner.

They bounced back with a 28-22 win at Minnesota behind a breakout passing game from Jalen Hurts, who completed 19-of-23 passes for 326 yards and 3 TD.  They avenged that loss to New York with a 38-20 win over the Giants in the rematch.  This time, they got their running game going rushing for 276 yards.  Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries while Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on 9 carries.

Now the Eagles are coming off their bye week and primed for a big effort against the Packers.  The Eagles are about as healthy as they have been all season.  Their defense is basically fully healthy now with the return of LB Nolan Smith from IR.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL when they are as healthy as they are right now.  All of their playmakers are healthy on offense, and the only loss there is C Cam Jurgens.

The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.  That's the same Panthers team that just lost 17-7 at home to the Saints this week.  They also struggled to put away Arizona by 4, Cincinnati by 9 and needed a big 2H comeback to beat the Steelers.  Before that, they tied the Cowboys and lost outright to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites.

This will be the Packers' toughest test of the season against an Eagles team that eliminated them in the playoffs with a 22-10 victory last year.  We saw the Eagles handle this situation well twice already, beating the Chiefs and Rams this season, two teams they also knocked out of the playoffs last year.  I think they enjoy their dominance of these teams and really get up for these games.

The Packers have a ton of injury questions coming into this one.  On offense, WR Matthew Golden, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Savion Williams and RT Zach Tom are all questionable.  They were already without WR Jayden Reed, and now TE Tucker Kraft suffered a season-ending injury against the Panthers last week.  They could not afford to lose Kraft, who has easily been their most productive player in the passing game consistently bailing out the offense with his ability to run after the catch.  Kraft has 32 receptions for a team-high 489 yards and 6 TD up to this point.  They could not afford to lose him, and I don't think they can beat the Eagles without him.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  Both teams are coming off misleading results that have made this line lower than it should be.  The Chargers should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Steelers, and this is my favorite play of the entire season on the Sunday Night Football Stage as a result.

The Steelers are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts gift-wrapped them that win by committing 6 turnovers, yet it was still a one-score game.  The Colts outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result and one of those games where just everything goes the Steelers' way.  It happened earlier this season when the Patriots committed 5 turnovers against them in a one-score game.

It was criminal that the Chargers didn't cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Titans last week in a 27-20 win.  The Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return TD and didn't score a single TD on offense.  The Chargers outgained the Titans 343 to 206, or by 137 total yards.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Chargers losing Joe Alt to a season-ending injury.  But not enough is being made of the fact that the Chargers traded for Trevor Penning of the Saints to take his place.  That was a great coup and one that will pay big dividends for them moving forward.  I'm also not that concerned about the loss of RT Bobby Hart because Trey Pipkins III is back healthy.  The Chargers are going to be just fine along the offensive line, and Herbert's mobility is a big weapon to counter it.

The numbers show the Chargers are by far the superior team.  The Chargers are 5th in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play while also ranking 6th in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  The Chargers are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game and 22nd at 5.4 yards per play.  They rank 30th in total defense at 383.8 yards per game and 25th at 5.8 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 95 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play on the season.  The Chargers are the much superior team and it will show on the field Sunday night.  

Aaron Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in his last seven primetime games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as an underdog.  Justin Herbert is 5-0 ATS in his last five primetime games and 16-9 ATS overall, including 10-3 SU as a favorite in primetime games.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints.  They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd.  They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late.  They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch.  They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense.  They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense.  Their front seven in particular is in shambles.  The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.

The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants.  They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.

The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky.  One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.

The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints.  You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers.  They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.

The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay.  Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.  

The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8

I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week.  The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.  Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat.  The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.

And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week.  Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.

The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.

The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow.  That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable.  The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week.  They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win.  The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.

Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go.  This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart.  The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  

Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want.  Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5

The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games.  Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week.  But these aren't your old Panthers.

Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.  The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late.  Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular.  They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend.  They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.

Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion.  He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning.  The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week.  They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.

The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB.  He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard.  This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.

The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game.  They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points.  They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf.  Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses.  Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.

Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams.  They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays.  Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs.  The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They are coming off a much-needed bye week to get healthier.  They worked wonders to get to 6-2 this season as Baker Mayfield made his case for MVP by leading several game-winning drives.  And now they come out of the bye much healthier and ready to knock off the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are running on fumes right now playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 home win over the Falcons last week after a missed XP by Atlanta late.  Their luck runs out this week.  They have benefited from playing the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.

A tired New England team will now have to battle the heat in Tampa Bay with temps in the 80's for this one.  Injuries are starting to mount up too as they will be without leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) and leading TD receiver Kayshon Boutte (431 yards, 5 TD).  They will also be without second-leading tackler Christian Ellis (53 tackles).

The Bucks have been without RT Luke Goedeke and RG Luke Haggard.  Both returned to practice this week and both could return, which would give them their entire starting offensive line back.  The bye week was good for Emeka Egbuka (34 receptions, 562 yards, 5 TD) as well as he was battling a hamstring injury the last few games going into it.  And this Tampa Bay defense will be as healthy as it has been all season this week.

Teams who are off a bye against a team that hasn't had their bye week yet are 6-0 SU this season with all six wins coming by 9 points or more.  Baker Mayfield is 4-0 SU as a favorite off a bye in his career.  The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games, and teams on a 6-plus game winning streak in Week 10 or later when listed as an underdog are 28-42-1 ATS.  The Bucs are favored for good reason and should be favored by more given the favorable spot for them.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it.  The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state.  I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.

Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye.  They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions.  Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.

The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week.  It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions.  JJ McCarthy is not their savior.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win.  McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.

Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator.  The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz.  They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm.  The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week.  Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens.  The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5

This game really sets up for an OVER.  We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses.  And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much.  The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.

Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground.  He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.

Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards.  He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week.  He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains.  He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.

The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts.  They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now.  The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one.  I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.  

Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points.  The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week.  They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants.  They have played five of their first eight games on the road.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.

While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now.  They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.

The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter.  They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week.  Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.

It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces.  The offense isn't any healthier.  The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano.  They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.

The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season.  The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants.  I look for them to make easy work of them here.

The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field.  The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears.  They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson.  This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.

The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush.  The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run.  They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers.  They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team.  They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result.

The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season.  Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone.  The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles.  The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season.  They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.

The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary.  Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos.  Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons.  Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.

The Falcons are a mess right now.  They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it.  They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now.  They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron.  Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game.  Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well.  That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.

I love the matchup for the Colts.  Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons.  The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state.  The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry.  The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.

Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more.  Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 8-0 to the OVER this season instead of 6-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their six OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers, 66 combined points with the Commanders and 68 combined points with the Broncos to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 384.1 yards per game and 7th at 6.1 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and all five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game, 31st in total defense allowing 404.6 yards per game and 32nd allowing 6.4 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, S Clark, LB Sanborn and S WIlson.  Fellow S Thomas and CB Revel are questionable.  What a mess this defense is.

The Cowboys allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears, 40 to the Packers, and 44 to Bo Nix and the Broncos to name a few.  Dallas' three home games in perfect conditions in the dome this season went for 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 with the Packers and 66 to the Commanders.  The OVER is now 10-3 in Cowboys last 13 home games.

Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall.  Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray and kept the Cardinals competitive, losing 31-27 at Indianapolis for 58 combined points and 27-23 at home to Green Bay for 50 combined points.  Brissett led the Cardinals to 400 total yards against the Colts and 330 total yards against the Packers.  He is likely to get the start again this week after practicing with the first-team on Friday, and I like the OVER either way.

The Cardinals also have a pitiful defense.  They were diced up for 31 points by the Colts and 27 by the Packers the last two weeks.  Injuries are a big reason the Cardinals have regressed defensively.  CB Will Johnson, CB Garrett Williams, LB BJ Julari, DL Walter Nolen were all limited in practice on Friday and are highly questionable.  The Cowboys will dice them up, and the books just can't set these Dallas totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Seahawks/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

There's always one or two teams that it takes over half a season for bettors and books alike to catch up to just how improved they are year over year.  The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams this season.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.

The Seahawks are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. Their two losses came by 4 points to the 49ers back in Week 1 when the 49ers were healthy, and by 3 points to the Bucs back when the Bucs were a lot healthier, too.  Now it's the Seahawks who are as healthy as they have been all season coming off their bye week and ready to crush the Commanders.

The Seahawks rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.6 points per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Sam Darnold is proving his season in Minnesota last year was no fluke, and he is thriving in Kubiak's offense which really utilizes play-action as well as anyone.  The defense ranks 7th in scoring at 19.4 points per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  So the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Seahawks have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL when healthy.  The front seven has been the strength, consistently getting pressure without blitzing.  That has helped them deal with some injuries in the secondary.  But the Seahawks are much healthier there now as their best CB in Devon Witherspoon returns after the bye.  The only starter they are still missing is FS Julian Love, but Nick Emmanwori is emerging as a star in his place.

Regression has hit the Commanders hard this season after winning so many close games last season.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS with four losses by 7 points or more.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Cowboys by 22 and the Chiefs by 21.  Their defense is old and slow and banged up right now.  They rank 27th in total defense at 372.8 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without two of their best pass rushers in DE's Armstrong and Wise Jr., and their secondary is one of the worst in the NFL as Marshon Lattimore is on his last leg.

The Commanders have a great offense when they are fully healthy.  But that's just not the case right now.  QB Jaden Daniels is returning from a hamstring injury, but I don't think he will test it much, and without being a dual-threat he is limited.  He also won't have his favorite receiver in Terry McClaurin, who reaggrevated his quad injury last week against the Chiefs.  Deebo Samuel has lost a couple steps, and Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler are both on IR.

The spot really favors the Seahawks as they are off a bye while the Commanders are on a short week after traveling to Kansas City Monday.  The Seahawks are the better, fresher, healthier team right now and it's not close.  Over the last two seasons, teams who on short rest after facing the Chiefs are 0-4 SU losing those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Seattle is 10-1 SU in road games under Mike McDonald over the last two seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City ML -125

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 30.8 points per game and 415.8 total yards per game in their last five games.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  Rice had 9 receptions for 93 yards and a score against the Commanders in his 2nd game back.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Bills just don't have the playmakers the Chiefs do on offense and it shows.  They were held to 14 points by the Falcons and 20 points by the Patriots in two of their last three games.  No question the Chiefs have the better, more explosive offense, and the difference is even more glaring on defense.

The Chiefs rank 4th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy on defense right now.  The Bills rank 23rd allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are going to be much worse off defensively this week due to some key injuries.  They are without their two best defensive linemen in DT Ed Oliver and DT DaQuan Jones, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of their defense.  They are also without SS Raylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin.  CB Taron Johnson is questionable, and LB Shaq Thompson is out.

Getting the Chiefs are basically a PK in their current state up against the Bills in their current state is a gift here.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 45

This is a good time to 'buy low' on an OVER between these two teams.  The Jaguars went under the total in their two games going into the bye week while scoring 12 points against the Seahawks and 7 points against the Rams.  The Raiders went under the total in three straight games heading into their bye week scoring 6 points against the Colts, 20 against the Titans and 0 against the Chiefs getting shut out.

I expect both offenses to be much sharper coming out of the bye week with first-year head coaches and first-year coordinators.  The Jaguars have the talent on offense to be explosive, and they certainly have a great offensive head coach in Liam Coen to get the most out of them.  After all, the Jaguars put up 31 points on the Chiefs, 26 on the 49ers, 27 on the Bengals and 26 on the Panthers earlier this season so the potential is there.

Chip Kelly should have this Raiders offense looking as good as it has all season.  The Raiders have been without their two biggest weapons for Geno Smith for weeks now in WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers.  Well, both of those guys return this week, and that's going to make all the difference for Smith and company.  This offense played well earlier in the season when both were healthy.  Bowers means everything to this offense, and it should help open things up for Ashton Jeanty.

These are two mediocre to below averages defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders rank 23rd in scoring allowing 25.7 points per game.  The Jaguars rank 21st in total defense at 336.9 yards per game and 19th at 5.6 yards per play.  Jacksonville S Eric Murray has been placed on injured reserve, and LB Devin Lloyd who is their best defender is questionable with a calf injury.

It will be perfect conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

Some teams bettors and the books just can't adjust down enough for how terrible they are.  That has been the Tennessee Titans for two years running.  After going 3-14 ATS last season, the Titans are now 2-6 ATS this season and were fortunate to get the two covers they had.  They covered by a half-point against the closing line in an 8-point loss to the Broncos as 8.5-point dogs in the opener.  They were about to be down 28-6 to the Cardinals in the 4th quarter before the Cardinals fumbled celebrating a TD too early going into the end zone.

So the Titans are now 5-20 ATS in their 25 games over the last two seasons.  They are getting worse before they get better, largely due to injuries.  They lost by 10 to the Raiders on the road, by 18 to the Patriots at home and by 24 to the Colts in the road in their last three games coming in.  Cam Ward has no help on offense, and he's without his best weapon in WR Calvin Ridley.

The injuries are even worse defensively.  They are without their most important defender in DT Jeffery Simmons.  They are without their best LB in Arden Key.  And they are without two of their best players in the secondary in CB L'Jarious Sneed and FS Xavier Woods.  It's no wonder they allowed 31 points to the Patriots and 38 to the Colts in their last two games.

The Chargers come in on extra rest after blowing the doors off the Vikings 37-10 at home last Thursday.  They outgained the Vikings 419 to 164, or by 255 total yards.  Justin Herbert is playing at a MVP level, especially now that he finally has a healthy offensive line with Joe Alt, Trey Pipkins III, Bobby Hart and Mekhi Becton all back healthy.  He has unbelievable weapons especially with the emergence of TE Oronde Gadsden II and RB Kimani Vidal in recent weeks.

The Chargers rank 12th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game and 5th in total defense at 296.9 yards per game.  They are getting better after shutting down the Vikings and are much healthier now.  Derwin James, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman are all healthy and back from injury.  The only key defender they are missing is CB Tarheeb Still.

Jim Harbaugh handles these situations well as a NFL head coach.  Harbaugh is 25-8 SU & 24-8-1 ATS when playing in EST or CST time zones as a head coach, including 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in Eastern time zones.  When coming off extended rest in these spots, his teams are 5-0 SU winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Titans are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Chargers will crush the Titans in this one.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* Vikings/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 47.5

The Lions are an offensive juggernaut in a dome, especially at home.  The Lions are putting up 36.7 points per game, 389 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play at home.  When Detroit plays a home game and the total is below 50, the OVER is 18-8 under Dan Campbell.  The OVER is 40-21 in all Lions home games with a total less than 50 since 2015.

While Detroit is fully healthy on offense, the defense is another story.  The Lions remain without FS Kerby Joseph, and they have eight defenders on IR with another two out this week.  Their secondary is very beat up, and Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings are equipped to take advantage of it with one of the best sets up weapons in the NFL.

JJ McCarthy is set up for success as he returns from a bye week healthy and ready to go.  He has all of his top playmakers healthy in RB's Mason and Jones, WR's Jefferson Addison and Nailor and TE Hockenson.  The offensive line has some guys questionable, but McCarthy is mobile which will be a big upgrade from Carson Wentz, who just can't get away from pressure.

This Minnesota defense has been torched the last two weeks and is overrated.  The Vikings allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers.  Goff has owned Brian Flores and this blitz-happy Minnesota defense in his career, and that won't change this week.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 50 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings.  The Lions alone have scored at least 30 points in each of the last five meetings.  They will get 30-plus in this one as well to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 47.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Texans AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39.5

This is a very low total for a NFL game that will be played indoors in the dome in Houston in perfect scoring conditions.  I realize these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but I don't think these two offenses are getting enough credit here.

The Broncos rank 10th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and 9th in total offense at 356.9 yards per game.  They have a better than average offense, especially with a creative mind like Sean Payton calling the shots.  He will find ways to scheme things up against the league's top-ranked defense to make Bo Nix and company successful.

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the OVER.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it is allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +13.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers and 'sell high' on the Packers this week.  The Packers are coming off an emotional comeback win over Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, winning 35-25.  The Panthers are coming off a 40-9 blowout loss to the Bills, who were off their bye week and pissed off after two straight losses going into their bye.

The Panthers also didn't have Bryce Young last week, and backup QB Andy Dalton played with a broken thumb.  Well, Young is back this week, and he makes all the difference for this team.  The Panthers were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with Young at the helm.

Several key players at least got in limited practices this week which gives them a good chance at returning from injury after the Panthers were decimated last week.  That includes S Nick Scott, LB Trevin Wallace, G Chandler Zavala, G Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  The defense is very healthy, and the offense has all of its top playmakers available for Young.

The Packers just aren't getting margin on anyone.  They haven't won any of their last six games by more than 10 points.  They have a way of playing conservative when they get ahead, and aggressive when they are behind.  That makes it tough for them to get margin on anyone.  They only beat the Cardinals by 4, the Bengals by 9, tied the Cowboys, lost outright to the Browns and beat the Commanders by 9.

The Packers have some concerning injuries on defense with Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.  K Brandon McManus is still bothered by a quad injury and is questionable.  It's a sandwich spot for the Packers off the big road win over Rodgers and the Steelers, and with the defending champion Eagles on deck on Monday Night Football.  I just don't think they'll be fully focused this week to put away the Panthers by two-plus touchdowns.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Packers OVER 43.5

The Packers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 45 or more combined points in all four plus 80, 50 and 60 combined points.  The Panthers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games.

The Panthers get Bryce Young back this week and all of his weapons are healthy.  The offensive line is a little healthier as well.  The Panthers should do their park against a Packers defense that has Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.

The Packers have one of the best offenses in the NFL and should also do their park against a Carolina defense that just allowed 40 points to the Bills last week and has allowed at least 24 points in six of its eight games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -122

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on Houston this week.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.

The Broncos are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their four road games this season.  They needed a 14-point comeback to beat the Eagles and only beat the Jets by 2 in London.  They also lost outright to both the Colts and Chargers.  I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos, who are a tired team that hasn't had their bye week yet while the Texans have.  They are coming off two shootout home wins over the Cowboys and Giants following that trip to London.  I question how much they have left in the tank for the Texans, who need this win like blood while the Broncos can afford a loss as they are in 1st place in the AFC West alone.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Falcons/Patriots OVER 44.5

The Falcons lost 34-10 to the Dolphins last week.  But their lack of offense was due to being without QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Drake London and WR Darnell Mooney.  Well, all three are back this week, and the Falcons are primed for a big offensive output against a suspect New England defense.

The Patriots have one of the most improved offenses in the NFL and should name their number against this banged up Falcons defense.  Drake Maye is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Patriots to 8th in scoring offense at 26.6 points per game and 3rd at 6.2 yards per play.  He is doing it without much of a running game as this is a pass-happy, explosive offense.  Maye is completing 75.2% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per attempt.

The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 43 points in five consecutive games despite playing dead offenses in the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers during this stretch.  The Falcons will be one of the best offenses they have faced this season and I expect their defense to get exposed.  But this Atlanta defense was exposed for 34 points by the lowly Miami Dolphins last week.  Injuries are a big problem with DE Zach Harrison and CB Billy Bowman out, while LB Leonard Floyd, LB Jalon Walker and SS Jessie Bates are all questionable.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Bengals OVER 50.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in what should be a shootout with the offenses having the advantage.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain Sunday in Cincinnati.

The Bengals have played in two straight shootouts since trading for Joe Flacco.  They went for 64 combined points with the Steelers and 77 combined points with the Jets.  Those are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the Bengals allowed 31 points and 396 yards to the Steelers and 39 points and 502 yards to the Jets, who were without their two best receivers in Wilson and Reynolds to boot.

The Bengals legitimately have the worst defense in the NFL, especially now that they are down their best defender in DE Trey Hendrickson.  The Bengals rank dead last in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game and dead last in total defense at 407.9 yards per game.  They also rank 30th allowing 6.4 yards per play.

But the offense has more juice now with Flacco, who is a big upgrade over Jake Browning.  He led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 total yards against the Steelers in his first start and followed it up with 38 points and 398 total yards against the Jets last week.  I know Flacco left late in that game with a shoulder injury and came back in.  But Flacco says he feels good to go this week even though he is listed as questionable.

The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in six of their seven games this season.  The only exception was the Saints in a game played in sloppy weather in Chicago.  The Bears have a vastly improved offense under Ben Johnson, scoring 25 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they have a terrible defense, one that ranks 31st in the NFL allowing 6.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the three worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed.

Injuries are also a problem for this Chicago defense as they are without CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Johnson and DE Dominque Robinson.  Flacco should torch a Chicago defense that allowed 30 points and 6.0 yards per play to backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Ravens last week.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Dolphins AFC No-Brainer on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have new life.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling with consecutive losses to fall to 4-3 on the season.  Now the Ravens are just two games back of the Steelers despite their disastrous 2-5 start to the season.  But that start has provided us with some line value on the Ravens moving forward.

Injuries were the biggest reason to the poor start.  The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 4, and they have been without several key defenders who are all healthy now.  Jackson is back this week, and Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey are all healthy now after all previously missed time.

No question the Ravens have one of the league's top offenses when Jackson is healthy, and the defense is going to be one of the best in the league moving forward.  That was on display last week when the Ravens shut down the Bears 30-16 last week, winning and covering easily even with Tyler Huntley at QB.  They made life very tough on Caleb Williams and an improved Bears offense under Ben Johnson.

Now the Ravens take a big step down in class here against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins, who are 2-6 this season.  The Dolphins are without two of their biggest playmakers on offense in Tyreke Hill and Darren Waller, and Waller's replacement in Julian Hill is out this week.  And already terrible Dolphins defense will be without CB Storm Duck and SS Ashtyn Davis this week, and DE Bradley Chubb is questionable.

The Dolphins are getting some respect after a 34-10 win in Atlanta last week.  Well, the Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, and they were missing several starters on defense as well.  Bettors are quick to forget that the Dolphins lost 31-6 to the lowly Browns the previous week.  They have zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have some terrible numbers.  They are averaging just 286 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 344 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in YPP on offense and 26th in YPP on defense.

I bet the Ravens -6.5 as soon as the line came out and would still play them at -7.5.  The Ravens also make a great teaser candidate this week if you want to use them in teasers it is a free bingo space.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

20* Commanders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points per game and 411.8 total yards per game.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Commanders won't offer them any resistance tonight, and the Chiefs should hang up another big number here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Commanders rank 21st in scoring defense at 24.3 points per game, 27th in total defense at 364.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.  They just allowed 44 points to the Cowboys last week and they are so banged up on defense right now.  They have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL, and that secondary is getting no help with four key depth pieces on the defensive line on IR in Armstrong, Wise, Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  DT Daron Payne is questionable as well.

But a big reason I'm on the OVER this week is because the Commanders get back their two biggest playmakers in WR Terry McClaurin and WR Deebo Samuel from injury after both missed the Dallas game last week.  I'm not concerned about the drop off from Jaden Daniels to Marcus Mariota because Mariota has proven he can get it done when he has his weapons.

The OVER is 3-0 in Mariota's three starts this season combining for 65 points with the Raiders, 61 with the Falcons and 66 with the Cowboys.  Mariota went 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a TD in leading the Commanders to 41 points against the Raiders.  He threw another pair of TD passes in leading them to 27 points against the Falcons and didn't have McCLaurin in that game either.  The Commanders are fully healthy on offense coming into this one outside of QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Packers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3.5

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  They will be playing with piss and vinegar in their blood after getting upset 33-31 by the Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week.  They could have been caught looking ahead to this huge game, which is the Aaron Rodgers revenge game.  It's the first time Rodgers will get a shot at his former team, and his Steelers teammates love him.  They will rally around him and get him that win, and at the very least the Steelers should not be 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.

Rodgers is proving he's still got it, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while only getting sacked 9 times.  Nobody gets the ball out faster than Rodgers, so I'm not concerned with Micah Parsons and this Green Bay pass rush.  Cleveland has a similar pass rush, and the Steelers dominated them 23-9 two weeks ago.  Rodgers went 21-of-30 for 235 yards and 2 TD and didn't get sacked once against the Browns.

This Pittsburgh defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL moving forward if they remain as healthy as they are right now.  Injuries were a big reason they struggled up to this point as they have been without CB Porter Jr., FS Elliott and LB Highsmith among others at times.  But they are fully healthy on defense now, and the Packers are fully healthy on offense as well with only C Frazier questionable.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more healthy than the Steelers right now.

The Packers have just been getting by and are very close to being on a 4-game losing streak right now.  They lost outright as 7.5-point road favorites at Cleveland, they tied the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites, they only beat the Bengals by 9 off their bye week as 14-point home favorites, and last week they escaped with a 27-23 road win as 7-point favorites against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.  They were held to 262 total yards and were outgained by 68 yards by the lowly Cardinals last week.

This is a tired Packers team playing their 4th road game in 5 games.  The Steelers have the extra rest and preparation time from playing last Thursday, and I think that advantage will really work in their favor here as they will be more ready for the Packers.  Mike Tomlin is 19-13 SU & 22-7-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Steelers Sunday night.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Broncos OVER 47.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 47.5 Sunday night assuming it would go up and it has.  I would still make this a 25* play up to the key number of 51.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 7-0 to the OVER this season instead of 5-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their five OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers and 66 combined points with the Commanders to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 31.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 29.4 points per game, 32nd in total defense allowing 401.6 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, FS Thomas and SS Wilson which are five starters.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers to name a few.

This Denver defense is grossly overrated this season after playing an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season.  They have faced an easy slate this season as well already getting to face Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields and Jaxon Dart.  In their one game against a legit, healthy offense the Broncos found themselves in a 29-28 shootout with the Colts and allowed 473 total yards in the loss.  This Dallas offense is right in line with the Colts, and the Cowboys should have a lot of success against this Denver defense.

Bo Nix will be able to keep up in a shootout because he is going to have to.  He has proven he can when he needs to as he led them to a 33-32 comeback win over the Giants last week and 65 combined points.  He kept up with the Colts in a game that saw 57 combined points.  Sean Payton will be in his bag against this Cowboys defense, which is easily the worst he and Nix have been up against all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +7.5

I love NFL teams like the Carolina Panthers because you can keep making money on them week after week.  They were terrible last year, so bettors fail to adjust their power rating enough in the first half of the season.  But this Panthers team is one of the most improved in the NFL, and the odds just continue to fail to catch up to them.

The Panthers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, including a 30-0 win over the Falcons that is as impressive as any win you will find all season.  Now the Panthers find themselves as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills this week, and I'm going to take advantage and back them again.

My favorite thing about the Panthers is that they are great in the trenches on both sides of the football.  They are 7th in total defense at 295.7 yards per game and 8th against the run allowing 92.6 rushing yards per game.  They are 3rd in rushing offense at 140.1 yards per game and 8th at 4.7 yards per carry.

The formula to beat the Bills is to run the football and stop the run.  Josh Allen can't do it on his own without a complimentary running game, and the biggest weakness of the Bills is their run defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 156.3 yards per game and 32nd in allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season.  That's really poor when you consider the Bills have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season.

The Panthers are as healthy as anyone in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success.  I know Bryce Young will miss this game, but Andy Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL and steps into a great situation here.  This line is being adjusted too much for the perceived drop off from Young to Dalton.

A big reason the Bills have been upset in consecutive games is because they just aren't healthy.  They lost 23-20 as 8-point home favorites to the Patriots and 24-14 as 4-point road favorites at Atlanta.  Their defense has suffered the biggest blows as they will be without DT DaQuan Jones, SS Taylor Rapp, SS Damar Hamlin, and they could be without both LB Matt Milano and LB Terrell Bernard.  No wonder they struggle so much against the run.  They are also going to be without WR Josh Palmer and they could be without TE Dalton Kincaid again.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and continue to be overvalued this week.  Home underdogs of 7 or more points in the first nine games of the season are 40-11-2 ATS since 2020.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -6

Note: I released this play Sunday night with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be back this week.  I'm usually good at knowing injury information before most and getting ahead of line moves as evidenced by the closing line value I have on my other NFL plays this week.  But I was off the mark on this one.  When Jackson was practicing Wednesday, Thursday and getting a full practice in Friday, the line went to Ravens -7 and was pushing -7.5.  But he has since been announced out as of Saturday, and the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley at QB.  No question it's a downgrade for the Ravens, but I would still play them as a 25* up to -2.5, and a 20* at anything worse if you are buying this play later on in the week.

The Ravens are primed for a big performance coming out of their bye week.  They have opened 1-5 this season against the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL.  They have faced the #1 schedule of opposing offenses and the #2 schedule of opposing defenses.  They have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of opposing QB's.  Couple that will all of the injuries they have suffered, and it's no wonder they have opened 1-5.

While Lamar Jackson will be out this week, reinforcements are on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised to still see them win by a TD or more with Tyler Huntley at QB.  Huntley knows this offense and was a huge reason the Ravens ran off a NFL record 24 straight preseason wins.  He has ample playmakers on offense to make this work.

But I'm most excited about this Baltimore defense, which has been without starters Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey at times this season.  Well, all of them are back coming out of the bye week, and this will be the most improved defense in the NFL moving forward.

This is the perfect storm of 'buying low' on the Ravens and 'selling high' on the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They won 25-24 on a blocked FG against the Raiders and a fumble on a simple handoff in a 25-24 win over the Commanders when they were just trying to run out the clock.  They took advantage of a Cowboys team at home that got decimated by injuries throughout the game, and they beat the lowly Saints at home.

I think it has been a lot more luck than actual good football from the Bears.  In fact, the Bears are +13 in turnovers in their last four games, forcing 15 and only committing 2!  That's unsustainable.  While the Bears are due some negative turnover regression, the Ravens are due some positive turnover regression.  Baltimore is -7 in turnover differential this season, committing 10 and forcing only 3.

The Bears will be without three starters in their secondary in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson and NB Kyler Gordon.  They will also be without TE Cole Kmet and LT Braxton Jones, while RB D'Andre Swift is questionable for this one.  The Bears are actually much worse off than the Ravens on the injury front right now.

The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense.  They have just gotten away with it due to good turnover luck.  I wouldn't be surprised to still see the Ravens win and cover the original line of -6 that I got early in the week.  I fully expect them to win this game Sunday even without Lamar.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

The Bengals sit at 3-4 on the season and very much alive in the AFC North.  They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.  The Bengals will be max motivated here hosting the Jets with a chance to get back to .500 on the season.  And they host the Bears next week, so they know this is a very important stretch for them.

Joe Flacco has proven what he can do with the best set of weapons he's ever had in his career here in Cincinnati.  He came in midweek and found himself in a one-score game as 15-point road underdogs to the Packers late in the 4th quarter.  Then he came back on a short week on a Thursday night and led the Bengals to a 33-31 home win over said Steelers.

Flacco went 31-of-47 for 342 yards and 3 TD while leading the Bengals to 470 total yards against a very healthy, good Steelers defense.  He found Jamar Chase 16 times for 161 yards and Tee Higgins 6 times for 96 yards.  His success in the passing game finally opened things up for Chase Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on only 11 carries.

The Bengals beat the Steelers without their best defensive player in DE Trey Hendrickson (15 tackles, 3 sacks).  Well, Hendrickson is back this week now that he has the extra rest to recover after the Bengals played last Thursday.  The Bengals will be very fresh, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  They are primed for another big effort Sunday.

The Jets continue to get too much respect week in and week out despite being 0-7 this season.  Bettors continue to back them blindly thinking they will get their first win.  It didn't happen last week hosting the Panthers, and it's not going to happen this week back on the road against the Bengals either.

The Jets were a respectable team early in the season before the injuries started to pile up.  But they just can't compete in their current state.  The defense will be without CB Sauce Gardner for the first time this season.  They are without DE Jay Tufele and LB Cam Jones, and they could also be without LB Quincy Williams.

The injuries are worse on offense.  QB Tryod Taylor was expected to take over for the ineffective Justin Fields, but he's out this week so the Jets are stuck with Fields again.  And he has no chance considering the Jets are without their two best receivers in Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds.  It's embarrassing what they are sending out there at receiver this week.  Also, RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor are both questionable.  They were already without Hall's backup in Braelon Allen, and they miss that 1-2 punch because the running game was the only thing they had going for them offensively this season.

Offense has been embarrassing for the Jets, indeed.  The Jets were held to 82 total yards by the Broncos two weeks ago in London.  They were held to 6 points and 220 total yards by the Panthers last week.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals, who are going to score plenty in this one to win by a TD or more and likely a blowout.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Vikings/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 44.5

The Chargers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  Injuries at RB have made them become even more pass-happy.  They are just putting the ball in Herbert's hands and saying go win it for us.  They have attempted 38 or more passes in four of their last five games and haven't rushed more than 28 times in any game this season.

The Chargers rank dead last in yards per play allowed in their last three games, giving up 6.7 yards per play to their opponents.  Their defense has taken a big step back this season which is a big reason Herbert has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts.  They allowed 27 points and 389 yards to the Commanders, 27 points and 341 yards to the Dolphins and 38 points and 401 yards to the Colts the last three weeks.

But Herbert is doing a good job of keeping up.  The Chargers had 29 points and 403 total yards on the Dolphins and 24 points and 445 total yards on the Colts.  Herbert threw 55 times for 420 yards and 3 TD against the Colts last week.  He has elite weapons on the outside with Allen, Johnson, McConkey and Gadsden, who had 7 receptions for 164 yards last week in a breakout.  RB Vidal is also great at catching the ball out of the backfield and will be the featured back moving forward.

Herbert should have plenty of chances to make big plays over the top of an aggressive Minnesota defense that gave up a ton of big plays to the Eagles last week.  That's an Eagles team that was one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL coming into that game.  Jalen Hurts went off for 19-of-23 passing for 326 yards and 3 TD, finding DeVonta Smith 9 times for 183 yards and AJ Brown 4 times for 121 yards in a 28-22 win over the Vikings.

Minnesota has been a dead nuts OVER team this season going 5-1 OVER in its six games finishing with 45 or more combined points four times.  A lot has been due to a leaky defense, but the offense has scored at least 21 points in five of its six games this season despite having JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz at QB.  It's another testament to head coach Kevin O'Connell, who always gets the most out of his QB's.

He is doing the same with Wentz, who threw for 313 yards against the Eagles, 236 against the Browns and 350 against the Steelers in his last three starts.  The Vikings have been extremely pass-happy as well as Wentz has averaged 40.7 attempts per game in his last three starts.  He has the best weapons he's ever had in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Nailor and Thielen.

Herbert has been doing this with a decimated offensive line.  But there's a chance he could get back one or both of his starting tacklers as both Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins returned to practice on a limited basis this week and will be questionable.  For the Vikings, there's a chance they get back RB Aaron Jones from injured reserve as he returned to practice this week, giving Wentz another weapon if he comes back.  Minnesota will be without LB Andrew Van Ginkel, one of their most important defenders.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Texans/Seahawks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +3.5

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  They are coming off their bye week and they have found their groove after an 0-3 start to the season with three straight one-score losses where they breaks didn't go their way late in games.  They left no doubt in their last two games, crushing the Titans 26-0 at home and the Ravens 44-10 on the road.

I like the fact that CJ Stroud found his rhythm in those two games leading the Texans to 353 total yards against the Titans and then 417 against the Ravens while throwing 4 TD passes against Baltimore.  He is forming chemistry with several of his young talented receivers, and they should be even sharper on offense coming out of the bye week.

I also like the fact that the Texans have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Texans rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 265.8 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They will wreak havoc in the opposing backfield against Sam Darnold, and I love that the Texans have one of the best shutdown corners in the league in Derrick Stingley to match up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is far and away Darnold's favorite target this season.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks.  They have alternated home and road games all season with a lot of travel involved.  Their trip to Jacksonville last week was as long as it gets, so they had to return home from that.  They have also played three straight one-score games that went down to the wire, so there have been no breaks for them.  And it's starting to show with the defense getting decimated by injuries.

CB Devon Witherspoon, FS Julian Love and CB Riq Woolen are all banged up with the first two questionable to make their returns this week.  LB Derick Hall is out and OT Josh Jones is questionable.  The Texans are the much healthier team coming into this one.

The Seahawks have huge home/road spits under Mike McDonald.  The Seahawks are actually 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in 11 road games under McDonald.  However, they are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their 12 home games under him.  That includes outright losses to the 49ers and Bucs already this season with their lone home win coming against the lowly Saints.

The Texans will have 15 days in between games, and teams on the road in this spot at 20-11 ATS since 2003.  I don't think there is much separating these teams, so if you're going to give me +3.5 in an evenly matched game on the team with the massive rest advantage, plus fading the team with zero home-field advantage, I'm going to take it.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Bucs/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 52.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense and a banged up defense.  That's especially the case when they are playing at home in a dome as Jared Goff has always been better in his career with controlled conditions inside a dome.

The Lions are scoring 31.8 points per game overall and 43.0 points per game at home this season. They are fully healthy on offense, but that's not the case on defense.  Their secondary is absolutely decimated as they will be without three starters in CB Terrion Arnold, SS Brian Branch and FS Kerby Joseph.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddox is out as well.  DT DJ Reader and DT Alim McNeil are both questionable and they are the Lions' two best run-stuffers.

Baker Mayfield is the MVP of the league to this point and will take advantage of this depleted Detroit secondary by being able to keep up with Goff in a shootout.  Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game.  This despite numerous injuries to all of his biggest playmakers on offense throughout the season.  It doesn't matter who is in there, Mayfield is going to find a way to move the football and score points.

That's why I'm not too concerned the Bucs will for sure be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. tonight.  They've been without Irving and Godwin Jr. for the majority of the season anyway.  Mike Evans is supposed to make his return from injury this week, and Emeka Egbuka is at least questionable.  Either way, I trust the healthy receivers in Evans, Shepard, Johnson, Miller and TE Otton to make plays against this Detroit secondary.

This Tampa Bay defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 24th in the NFL allowing 25.2 points per game.  They allowed 27 points to the Jets, 31 to the Eagles, 35 to the Seahawks and 19 to the 49ers in their last four games coming in.  No question the Lions are going to get into the 30's with ease tonight, which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER 52.5 ticket because they aren't going to be able to stop the Bucs, either.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Bucs last four games overall with 56 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Lions last five games overall with 61 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are just too decimated with injuries right now to be favored over the Atlanta Falcons.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons are arguably the most underrated team in the NFL when you break down the numbers, and I'm on them this week.  I grabbed this +3.5 prior to their game with the Bills last week expecting them to win that game outright, so the +3.5 wouldn't be there.  I was correct in that assumption, so all my long-term clients should have a better number than this game will close.  If you get less than +3 then just bet the Falcons on the Money Line, and/or use the Falcons in teasers with the Patriots and Vikings.

This San Francisco defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  The 49ers have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

What gets slept on with the Falcons is just how improved their defense is this season.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense at 253.4 yards per game and 7th at 4.8 yards per play.  They did a great job of drafting pass rushers and they are making an immediate impact.  They held Josh Allen and the Bills to just 14 points last week on a fast track in Atlanta while sacking in four times.

The Falcons will make life tough on Mac Jones and this decimated 49ers offense as well.  Brock Purdy wasn't healthy enough to return this week, and they are still without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling was just put on IR as well.

The Falcons are outgainng opponents by 125.4 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play on the season.  Those are elite numbers, making them one of the most underrated teams in the NFL when you compare how most books have them power rated.  They will continue to be a money maker moving forward, especially against a depleted 49ers team this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Falcons/49ers NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They continue to have a very good offense despite the injuries, but the defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  And now they are facing a Falcons team with an explosive offense and this has the makings of a shootout.

The 49ers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 47 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

Mac Jones will get the start again this week and he has proven to be great working under Kyle Shanahan.  Jones threw for 347 yards against the Bucs, 342 yards against the Rams, 284 yards against the Cardinals and 279 yards against the Saints in his four starts.  This despite being without all of his top weapons at receiver.  But reinforcements are on the way now with both TE George Kittle and WR JuJuan Jennings expected to return from injury this week.  And he has already formed a great rapport with Kendrick Bourne.  Jones is ready to try and keep up with the Falcons in a shootout, which he is going to have to do with the Falcons scoring at will in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 53.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 6-0 to the OVER this season instead of 4-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their four OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers and 57 combined points with the Panthers to sail OVER those totals.  Four of their six games were played outdoors on grass, and the two games inside AT&T Stadium in perfect conditions were the 77 points with the Giants and the 80 with the Packers.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 387.5 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin returning and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st allowing 30.7 points per game, 32nd allowing 411.7 total yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs and LB Overshown.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Washington offense is going to do to this Cowboys defense.  The Commanders rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game despite battling through injuries themselves.  But QB Jayden Daniels is back and healthy, and this offense should thrive moving forward as long as he is in the lineup.

This Washington defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Commanders rank 25th in total defense allowing 356.8 yards per game and 25th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They have played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses as well in the Giants, Raiders, Bears and a banged up Chargers offense.  Against the two best offenses they have faced, they allowed 34 points and 435 total yards to the Falcons and 27 points and 404 total yards to the Packers.  The Cowboys will hang a big number on them today in what will be a big-time shootout.  The OVER is 9-3 in Cowboys last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Chargers OVER 48

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  They have gone for 46 or more combined points with their opponents in five consecutive games, including 57 with the Broncos, 61 with the Titans and 58 with the Cardinals.  Those aren't exactly offensive juggernaut teams.

This Chargers offense may be the best offense the Colts have faced this season.  Justin Herbert has played at an MVP level despite injuries to the offensive line, which are getting better.  And now he gets WR Quentin Johnson (26 receptions, 377 yards, 4 TD) back this week after sitting out last week against the Dolphins, a 29-27 shootout win for the Chargers that saw 56 combined points.

No question the Colts have a potent offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having great seasons to this point.  They rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.3 points per game and 2nd at 6.4 yards per play.  But the Colts have a clear weakness on the other side of the ball despite facing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They rank 19th in total defense at 329.2 yards per game and 16th at 5.6 yards per play.

The most glaring performance came last week when they allowed 25 first downs and 400 total yards to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals at home.  Brissett threw for 320 yards in the loss despite losing Marvin Harrison Jr. to injury early on.  The Colts were without their top three CB's in that game, and they will be without two of the three for this game with only Kenny Moore expected to return from an Achilles injury.  They will get torched again, and Jones will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings return from their bye week much healthier than they went into it.  They were without four starters on the offensive line in their 21-17 win over Cleveland in London.  Well, they could have all five healthy this week.  Green dot Blake Cashman makes his return on defense this week as well.  The Vikings are pretty much fully healthy coming into this game, and it's a big reason I'm on them.

But this is as much a fade of the Eagles as anything.  They were fortunate to open 4-0 this season with four one-score wins and some miracles along the way.  Their luck has run out the last two weeks, losing 21-17 at home to Denver before getting crushed 34-17 on the road by the Giants last week.  I think the Eagles are going through a Super Bowl hangover, and I question how much motivation they'll actually have to dig deep after winning it all last year.  That effort against the Giants last week following a loss to the Broncos says a lot.

The Eagles just aren't winning at the line of scrimmage this season, and I don't think it's fixable.  The Eagles rank 26th in rushing at 95.3 yards per game and 29th at 3.5 yards per carry, while ranking 26th against the run allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game and 24th at 4.7 yards per carry.  They have no passing game, either, ranking 28th in passing at 179.2 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 68.3 yards per game on the season.  This is just not a good team this year.

While the Eagles average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play, the Vikings average 5.8 yards per play on offense and only allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.7 yards per play.  They are 1.4 net yards per play better than the Eagles despite all their injuries and having Carson Wentz at QB.  

Wentz should be even more comfortable in his 3rd start of the season, and no question he will be motivated for revenge on his former team this week.  The Vikings have confidence in him now after leading a 4th quarter comeback in that 21-17 win over the Browns in London.  He hit Jordan Addison for a 12-yard TD with 25 seconds left.  Wentz finished 25-of-34 passing for 236 yards and that TD in the win against what is one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Browns.

Jalen Hurts really struggles against defenses like the one Brian Flores runs, which is a lot of zone blitzes.  The Vikings rank 5th in scoring defense at 19.4 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.8 yards per game.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Sunday, and it's a big reason I like the Vikings as home underdogs here.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -11.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last three weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens three weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

Last week, the Chiefs kept it rolling with a 30-17 win over the Lions.  That was their 3rd consecutive game scoring 30-plus points.  Now even more reinforcements are on the way as WR Rashee Rice makes his much-anticipated return from a 6-game suspension.  He is probably their most talented receiver, and he will open things up even more for everyone else.  The Chiefs are going to be a wagon moving forward.

If the Chiefs put up 30 points for a 4th consecutive week, they will easily cover this 11.5-point spread against the Raiders.  I fully expect them to do both.  The Raiders are absolutely lost offensively ranking 30th scoring 17.2 points per game.  Geno Smith has regressed, and he just doesn't have weapons due to poor management and injuries.

The Raiders could not afford to lose Brock Bowers, but they are without him right now.  Thyey also could be without their top WR in Jakobi Meyers.  I mean Smith is throwing to guys like Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Justin Shorter and Dont'e Thornton Jr.  This is the worst receiver room in the NFL, and the Raiders just won't have what it takes to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.

The Raiders were crushed 41-24 by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders and 40-6 by Daniel Jones and the Colts in their last two road games.  That doesn't bode well for them to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this week.  The Chiefs also cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week after suffering three early season losses, so they will be motivated.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +1.5

You're going to hear a lot about how Bryce Young hasn't won on the road in the NFL.  But he hasn't face a team as bad as the Jets, and he hasn't been at the helm of a Panthers team as talented and healthy as the one he will be in charge of Sunday.  This is where Young and the Panthers get that elusive road win this week.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming to the Patriots, who are as hot as they are right now.  They beat the Cowboys and Dolphins at home, and their 30-0 win over the Falcons may be the single most impressive win of the season when you look at what the Falcons have done outside of that game.

The Panthers are as healthy as they have been all season going into this week.  They get back RB Chuba Hubbard, who will form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Rico Dowdle, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage two consecutive weeks in Hubbard's absence.  The offensive line is playing great, and they could get back C Austin Corbett who returned to practice this week.  WR Jalen Coker is expected to make his season debut, and he was Young's favorite target last season.  Young has already formed great chemistry with WR McMillan, WR Legette and TE Sanders and this will prove to be one of the best offenses in the league moving forward.

The most underrated unit is this Panthers defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL allowing just 308.3 yards per game despite a very tough schedule of opposing offenses to this point.  This Jets offense will be far and away the worst unit they have faced thus far.  The Panthers are nearly fully healthy on defense and get back CB Jaycee Horn this week.  The Jets are a run-heavy team, and the Panthers have been great against the run the last two weeks.  They held Achane of the Dolphins to 16 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago, and last week they held Williams of the Cowboys to 29 yards on 13 carries.  Everyone is sleeping on this Panthers defense.

The Jets are 0-6 SU this season.  They are coming off one of the most misleading results of the season in a 13-11 loss to Denver in London.  The were held to just 82 total yards by the Broncos and outgained by 164 yards.  They had a fumble and a KO return that set them up for short fields, where their offense was stopped and they settled for two short FG's.  They also got a safety.  It was one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen.

Now the Jets are going to be without their best weapon in WR Garrett Wilson, who suffered an oblique injury late in that loss to the Broncos.  Their offense is going to be even worse as Wilson was the only bright spot on this offense up to this point.  Justin Fields is going to be throwing to the likes of Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, Allen Lazard and Isaiah Davis.  This is a bad, bad offense.

The defense hasn't been much better.  The Jets are 28th in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Jets are 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  They allowed 34 points to the Steelers, 30 to the Bills, 29 to the Bucs, 27 to the Dolphins and 37 to the Cowboys.  That gives them a recent common opponent as the Jets lost 37-22 to the Cowboys two weeks ago at home, while the Panthers beat the Cowboys 30-27 at home last week.

This is a tough spot for the Jets as well returning home from London and having to deal with the jet lag.  They won't have any home-field advantage as fans are already fed up with this team.  And their two worse performances of the season came in their last two home games in a 20-point loss to the Bills and that 15-point loss to the Cowboys.  The Jets will not be getting their first win of the season this week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New England Patriots -6.5

Normally I wouldn't back a NFL team playing their third consecutive road game like the Patriots.  But this situation is not like most.  Mike Vrabel wants revenge on the franchise that fired him after their most successful stretch in franchise history.  The Titans have gone 4-19 SU & 4-19 ATS since Vrabel's departure, showing just how much he meant to this team.

Now the Titans fired Brian Callahan leading into this game, probably because they didn't want the embarrassment of having him as their head coach for another week.  But there will be zero dead cat bounce here as the Titans are just that bad.  They also lost one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history as Bill Callahan left with Brian, and that's not good news for rookie Cam Ward moving forward.

Making matters worse for the Titans is that Ward's biggest playmaker on offensive in Calvin Ridley (16 receptions, 290 yards, 18.1 YPC) is going to be out for this game.  What is already the league's worst offense just got even worse without Ridley.  The Titans rank 31st in scoring offense at 13.8 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 232.3 yards per game and 32nd at 4.2 yards per play.

The Titans haven't even been competitive in their five losses this season, which have all come by 8 points or more.  They also should have never beaten the Cardinals as they would have been down 28-6 had Demarcado not dropped the ball going into the end zone celebrating a TD early.  So they really should be 0-6 with all six losses by 8 points or more.

The Patriots are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came to the Steelers where they committed five turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They outgained the Steelers by 166 yards.  They upset both Buffalo and Miami on the road during this stretch, crushed the Panthers by 29 at home, and won and covered at New Orleans.  This is really one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.

This team loves playing for Vrabel and you can see it in their post game celebrations and comments.  He is the ultimate players' coach, getting the most out of every player on the roster.  Drake Maye has made the Year 2 leap and is easily a top 10 QB in the NFL already.  He leads a Patriots offense that is 11th in scoring at 25.0 points per game and 7th in passing at 244.5 yards per game.  The defense is 8th in scoring at 20.0 points per game as this is another great bend but don't break Patriots defense.  They will easily shut down this Tennessee offense this week.

The Titans are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games and have zero home-field advantage.  They already lost by 14 to the Rams and by 21 to the Colts at home this season, and it's going to be another blowout loss for them this week against in inspired New England team playing for revenge for Vrabel.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* Rams/Jaguars NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45

These are two of the better defenses in the NFL with the Jaguars ranking 8th in scoring defense at 20.0 points per game and the Rams 3rd at 18.3 points per game.  Both defenses should have their way with these two injury-plagued offenses in London Sunday morning.  That's especially the case with the forecast calling for a 100% chance of rain and double-digit winds.

The Rams have to be gutted to lose Puca Nacua to an ankle injury last week as he will miss this week as a result.  He has 54 receptions for 616 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for a score in only six games this season.  It's a big blow to the offense, which wasn't nearly as good last year when he was off the field.  Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams and the running game, which is also without his backup in Blake Corum and RT Rob Havenstein.

The Jaguars have faced two really good defenses this season and they were shut down in both games.  They were held to 17 points and 291 total yards by the Texans, and 12 points and 273 total yards by the Seahawks.  The Rams will have similar success in shutting them down, especially since they lost one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets in Brenton Strange to IR.

Both defenses are remarkably healthy right now and will win out in this defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday morning.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-4 after four consecutive losses.  They are 2.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) but actually in second place in the division due to the struggles of the Ravens and Browns.  I think the Bengals will be 'all in' tonight as this is their last stand if they want any chance of winning the division.

The Bengals have played four of their first six games on the road against a tough schedule.  Even their two home games were tough, but they played well in both games beating the Jaguars 31-27 and losing to the Lions by 13 as 10.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 43 yards.  This game Thursday night is the start of three consecutive home games for the Bengals.  The next two they host the Jets and Bears, so they could easily get on a 3-game winning streak here and get to 5-4 on the season and back in contention in the division.

The Steelers are overvalued after a 4-1 start to the season.  Last week, they had a huge rest advantage over the Browns who were coming back from London, while the Steelers were off their bye week.  I backed the Steelers in that game because of it and they delivered with a 23-9 win over Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, a rookie making his first career road start.

The Steelers have been far from impressive in their two road games this season.  They should have lost to the Jets in Week 1, winning 34-32 despite getting outgained 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards.  And we've seen how bad that win has aged considering the Jets are 0-6 now.  Their 21-14 win at New England was even more of a miracle considering they were outgained 369 to 203 by the Patriots, or by 166 total yards.  But they were +5 in turnovers including two turnovers at their 1-yard line when the Patriots were going in to score.

The Steelers may be the luckiest team in the NFL to this point.  They have actually recovered 83% of available fumbles, and you would expect that to be closer to 50% for every team in the NFL.  They have the numbers of a team that would be closer to 1-4 than 4-1.  The Steelers only average 277.8 yards pre game on offense and allow 355.6 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by 78 yards.

The Bengals were in a brutal spot last week starting Joe Flacco on a short week and facing a rested, pissed off Green Bay Packers team coming off their bye week.  They actually trailed by just 6 points late in the 4th quarter and had a chance to win that game as 14-point road underdogs.  Evan McPherson missed two FG's in that game as well, even one where he made it before a Packers timeout took it off the board as he went on to miss the ensuing try.

This might be the best set of weapons of Flacco's career, and he can get it done when he has weapons and should be more comfortable in the new offense this week.  He threw for 219 yards and 2 TD without an interception against a very good Packers defense on the road, and now he should be much more comfortable at home this time around.  He got the ball to those weapons as Chase finished with 10 receptions for 94 yards and a TD while Higgins had 5 receptions for 62 yards.  Their chemistry should be even better this week against a Steelers secondary that has some holes, allowing 245 passing yards per game and 65.8% completions to opposing QB's despite facing Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel.

Mike Tomlin is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in Thursday night road games in his career as the head coach of the Steelers.  He has been dreadful as a road favorite in his career as well.  Tomlin is 13-26-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more since 2017.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bengals and 'sell high' on the Steelers this week.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Bills/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

The Atlanta Falcons may be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They had the fluky 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers where they kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory that is keeping them undervalued.  They actually outgained the Panthers by 108 yards and held them to 224 yards in the loss.

In fact, the Falcons have some of the best numbers in the NFL through four games despite their 2-2 record.  They rank 7th in totla offense at 362.8 yards per game and gain 5.6 yards per play, while ranking 1st in total defense at 244.0 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 119 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play this season.

Michael Penix Jr. came back with a big performance after that loss to the Panthers in leading the Falcons to a 34-27 home victory over the Commanders.  That win was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as well as they gained 435 yards and allowed just 296 yards, outgaining the Commanders by 139 yards.  Penix Jr. went 20-of-26 for 313 yards and 2 TD against the Commanders, who have proven to have a very good defense this season.

The Bills are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  They are 4-1 this season but it has been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And they were life and death in the 4th quarter with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

Their luck ran out last week as they were upset 23-20 as 8-point home favorites by the New England Patriots.  Drake Maye torched their defense for 273 passing yards, and this defense is the reason I think the Bills are overrated.  The Bills rank 18th in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per play, and that has come against one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses especially the last four weeks against the Pats, Saints, Dolphins and Jets.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense against an Atlanta offense that has no weaknesses.  The Falcons should be able to match the Bills score for score in this one.  The spot really favors the Falcons as they are coming off their bye week, while the Bills are coming off that physical division game against the Patriots last week.  This line suggests the Bills would be favored by 7 over the Falcons on a neutral, and there's just not that much separating these two teams.  This is a game Atlanta can win outright.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Falcons OVER 47.5

Both the Falcons and Bills have benefited from playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  That fact has kept this total lower than it should be, and I fully expect both offenses to have their way with these two defenses Monday night in a shootout in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.

The Bills rank 3rd in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 5th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 362.8 yards per game and are loaded with playmakers for Michael Penix Jr., who led the Falcons to a 34-27 home win over the Commanders for 61 combined points going into his bye week.

The Bills have faced the Patriots, Saints, Dolphins and Jets the last four weeks, which are four of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons have faced Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, Bryce Young and the Panthers and JJ McCarthy and the Vikings in their last three games.  It's safe to say both defenses will be taking a big step up in class this week, and it should lead to a back and forth shootout as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City ML -130

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last two weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens two weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball through the air at will on a banged up Detroit defense that is missing several key pieces in the secondary.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR, they will be without starting CB Terrion Arnold, and starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddux is questionable as well.

Jake Browning torched this banged up Lions secondary for 21 points in the 4th quarter alone last week, so you can just imagine what Mahomes and company are going to be able to do against this Detroit defense.  I love the fact that the Chiefs lost last week to fall to 2-3, so they will be extra motivated coming into this one.  They still have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL and this is going to be an even bigger advantage for them in a Sunday night primetime game.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have had some very misleading blowout wins and have feasted on a very weak schedule of Chicago, Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati.  They only outgained Cleveland 277 to 249 at home, or by 28 yards.  They only outgained Cincinnati 365 to 322, or by 43 total yards.

This will be Detroit's toughest test by far since a 27-13 road loss to Green Bay in the opener.  While the Lions are 'fat and happy' off four straight convincing wins, the Chiefs are pissed off after losing a game they should have won against the Jaguars.  Patrick Mahomes has been elite in this spot as the Chiefs are 29-12-1 ATS in his career when favored by 3 points or less or as an underdog.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Packers OVER 44

The Packers return from their bye week looking to take out their frustration on the Cincinnati Bengals.  I expect most of that frustration to be taken out on offense, where the Packers should score at will against one of the worst defenses in the NFL to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Packers went into their bye week in a 40-40 shootout tie with the Cowboys and 80 combined points.  Their offense should be even better out of the bye with a return to health along the offensive line.  There's a good chance they get LT Rasheed Walker, LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom back in the lineup this week.  They remain without DT Devonte Wyatt defensively, a loss that is felt even more after trading away DT Frank Clark to the Cowboys.

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team due to their poor defense and all of their talent on offense, even without Joe Burrow.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 61 points with Detroit, 58 with Minnesota and 58 with Jacksonville.  They rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game and 30th in total defense allowing 391.2 yards per game.

Cincinnati has seen enough of Jake Browning, so it decided to trade for veteran Joe Flacco early in the week.  Christmas came early for Flacco getting out of Cleveland and their lack of weapons.  Now he gets to work with one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL led by WR Chase, WR Higgins and RB Brown.  He will get the most out of the weapons on hand, especially with his ability to throw the deep ball and open up more big plays in the passing game for this offense.

The Packers will score in the 30's or more in this one, and the Bengals will be able to get 14-plus to contribute to us cashing this OVER 44 ticket with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

This might be the toughest spot that any NFL team has to face this entire season.  For the first time in NFL history, an NFL team will be traveling back from London while having to go back on the road without having a bye week.  It's safe to say the Browns are completely gassed and won't have anything left in the tank for the Steelers, who are off their bye week to boot.

I've been looking to fade the Steelers early in the season because they aren't as good as their 3-1 record.  However, a big reason for that was because they were so banged up on defense.  But now they return from their bye week a lot healthier on defense, and this should get back to being one of the best defenses in the NFL which is the case every year under Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers were previously playing without LB Alex Highsmith, FS DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter Jr.  Now all three are back in the lineup this week, and the Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye.  Aaron Rodgers will be even more comfortable in the new offense with his receivers and is primed for a big game here.

The Browns just lost to a depleted Vikings team that was missing three starters on the offensive line with Carson Wentz at QB.  He actually torched their previously dominant defense despite the offensive line limitations and his mobility limitations.  Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as fast as any QB in the league, which will negate Cleveland's biggest strength in their pass rush.

This Cleveland offense is atrocious, and rookie Dillon Gabriel will be making his first career road start here.  Mike Tomlin is 30-6 SU in his career against rookie QB's, including 16-1 at home with the lone loss coming to Dak Prescott in 2016.  The Browns rank dead last (32nd) in scoring at 14.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 288.2 yards per game and 31st at 4.5 yards per play this season.  Tomlin and this healthy Steelers defense will make life miserable on Gabriel for four quarters.

The Steelers have won 8 consecutive games coming off their bye week.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games off a bye.  The Steelers are 21-0 SU in their last 21 regular season home meetings with the Browns.  Their domination of Cleveland continues this week given the massively favorable spot they are in.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Jaguars OVER 44

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to all their injuries in the secondary.  They will be without three starters in the secondary again this week as CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen and FS Julian Love are all out for a second consecutive week.

Those injuries led to an absolute shootout last week as the Seahawks lost 38-35 at home to the Bucs for 73 combined points.  The Seahawks went for 463 yards but they allowed 426 yards to the Bucs.  Sam Darnold had one of the best games of his career to keep the Seahawks in it, going 28-of-34 for 341 yards and 4 TD in the loss.

The Bucs were without several of their best weapons and still torched this Seattle secondary as Baker Mayfield went 29-of-33 passing for 379 yards and 2 TD.  Now Trevor Lawrence will be in line for one of the best games of his career, especially playing with the confidence of leading the Jaguars to a 31-28 upset win over the Chiefs last week.

Lawrence went 18-of-25 passing for 221 yards and a TD while also leading the team with 54 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.  He is getting more and more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense, and keep in mind he led the Jaguars to a 26-21 upset win at San Francisco the week prior.  Those are two great defenses he just torched, and now he will be taking a big step down in class here against this Seattle defense in its current state.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses through the first four weeks of the season, the Jaguars were torched for 476 total yards and 28 points by the Chiefs last week.  You can bet Darnold and this Seattle offense are going to have similar success here today in what will be a big-time shootout with both offenses ahead of both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Panthers OVER 48.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 5-0 to the OVER this season instead of 3-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their three OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants and 80 combined points with the Cowboys to sail OVER those totals.  This total of 48.5 is too low for a game involving the Cowboys right now.

The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 406.6 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.2 points per game despite some key injuries on offense.  The Cowboys rank dead last (32nd) in total defense at 412 yards per game, 30th at 6.3 yards per play allowed and 29th in scoring at 30.8 points per game.  The loss of Micah Parsons has been felt, and they are without LB Overshown, LB Sanborn, FS Hooker and both starting CB's in Bland and Diggs are questionable for this game.

The Panthers are getting healthier on offense and have some real talent on that side of the ball.  McMillian and Legette are two great receivers, and now TD Ja'Tavion Sanders is expected to return this week.  Jalen Coker was Bryce Young's favorite target last season, and he could make his season debut this week as he returned to practice from IR.  Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards in place of Chuba Hubbard last week, and now he is going to want revenge on his former team in the Cowboys and should be in line for another big game.

The Panthers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and if not for a fluky shutout win against Atlanta where the Falcons kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory, it would be 4-0.  They went for 51 combined points with Miami, 49 with Arizona and 55 with New England.  So this total of 48.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both teams have very poor defenses that will be exposed by two underrated offenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Ravens OVER 45

This total has been adjusted too low for the fact that Lamar Jackson is out for the Baltimore Ravens.  I would argue the defensive injuries for the Ravens are just as, if not more impactful to the Ravens' performance in this game.  We'll take advantage of the extra value and back the OVER 45 Sunday as they host the Los Angeles Rams.

The Ravens are pretty much fully healthy on offense outside of Lamar.  QB Cooper Rush is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.  Rush hasn't had the kind of weapons to work with that he will have in the Ravens.  This offense is absolutely loaded and remains one of the best offenses in the NFL even with Rush at QB.  He should be much more comfortable in his 2nd start in this offense this week.

The injuries on defense are much more daunting.  The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, and they just traded away LB Odafe Oweh.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense two weeks ago.  And a previously dead Houston offense came to life last week scoring 44 points on 417 total yards against the Ravens.

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 31st in total defense at 408.8 yards per game.  If the Chiefs and Texans can torch this defense for 37 and 44 points, respectively, you can just imagine what this high-octane Rams offense is going to do to them this week.

The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 401.8 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite playing a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses in the Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts and 49ers to this point.  This will be by far the worst defense they have faced this season.

The Rams are 3-1 OVER in their last four games and would have gone OVER this total of 45 in all four.  They combined for 49 points with the 49ers, 47 with the Colts, 59 with the Eagles and 52 with the Titans.  Mac Jones torched them last week for 26 points, the Colts had two TD's taken off the board, the Eagles torched them for 33 points, and even the Titans put up 19 points against this defense that has clearly taken a step back this season.  

The Ravens are 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Buffalo, 58 with Cleveland, 68 with Detroit, 57 with Kansas City and 54 with Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Jets NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -7

Note: I also love a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -1/Rams -1 Sunday.

The Denver Broncos are 3-2 but could easily be 5-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 4-1 or better.  They rank 10th in total offense at 355.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play on offense, and they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game and 5th in total defense allowing 288.6 yards per game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away the New York Jets' only real weapon at receiver in Garrett Wilson.

The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire this season.  They are the only remaining winless team at 0-5 this season.  They were just blown out by an injury-ravaged Cowboys team 37-22 at home last week, a Cowboys team playing without 3 starting offensive linemen and two of their best weapons on offense in Lamb and Turpin.  Bo Nix and company should torch this Jets defense that ranks 31st in scoring allowing 31.4 points per game.

Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when his defense allows 20 or more points.  The Jets are going to allow much more than 20 points in this one.  Fields is so predictable as he just cannot beat teams with his arm.  And now with Surtain taking away Wilson, this Jets offense is even in more of a world of hurt.  Wilson has been targeted just 7 times in 3 career games against Surtain, finishing with 3 receptions for 34 yards and a INT by Surtain.  Backup receivers Irvin Charles and Alan Lazard are out for this one, and losing RB Braelon Allen is a big blow as the Jets had a great 1-2 punch with him and Breece Hall in the backfield prior.

Denver's 21 sacks lead the NFL entering Week 6.  14 of the 21 sacks have come without blitzing.  Their 84 sacks in 2024 were 22 more than the next-closest team.  The Jets have allowed 16 sacks, which is the fourth-most in the league.  They have lost 132 yards on those sacks, the 2nd-highest mark in the league.  They will once again have too many negative plays that will kill them offensively this week as Fields continues to hold onto the ball too long.

Sean Payton is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in international games in his career covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game in those two games.  I love that he has experience with it, while rookie head coach Aaron Glenn looks like he is in over his head already and won't have his players ready to handle the travel as well as Payton will.

Favorites are 37-14-1 SU & 33-19 ATS in international games.  The Broncos have actually had no problem blowing out opponents over the last two seasons, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  In fact, the Broncos are 13-9 SU in the regular season over the last two seasons with 12 of those 13 wins coming by 8 points or more!  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have no passing game and their rushing game has been non-existent as well.  The Eagles rank 30th in total offense at 261.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.7 yards per play.  They are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass.

The New York Giants are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state.  They are running the football more with a mobile QB in Jaxson Dart.  They went for 39 combined points with the Chargers and 40 with the Saints in his first two starts.  Making matters much tougher on Dart is the fact that he is without his two best weapons at receiver in Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton.  The Giants are scoring just 17.4 points per game this season ranking 28th in scoring offense.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Eagles and Giants with 33, 31 and 37 combined points.  This total of 42.5 has been set too high tonight, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a dangerous offense moving forward.  They just got Xavier Worthy back from injury last week, and promptly put up 37 points on the Ravens.  Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes, Worth had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 carries for 38 yards, and this looked like one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worthy just opens things up for everyone else.  Defenses have to account for his speed and also his ability to run the football.  Pretty soon the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back from suspension and they will be virtually unstoppable on offense.

The Jaguars are a much more potent offense this season under head coach Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career year in Tampa Bay last season as their offensive coordinator.  Now he is working wonders on Trevor Lawrence, who would have even bigger numbers this season if his receivers didn't drop more passes than any other team in the league thus far.

Even with those drops, the Jaguars rank 16th in scoring at 24.0 points per game and 10th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game.  Lawrence is playing behind one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, one that is paving the way for the 4th-most rushing yards per game (144) and 5.0 yards per carry behind the one-two punch of Etienne and Tuten.  The Jaguars put up 26 points on the 49ers last week, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Jaguars have solid defensive numbers this season, but it is largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  They have faced the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning, the Texans and the 49ers with all their injuries on offense.  This is a huge step up in class for their defense, and I expect them to get exposed for the mediocre unit that they really are Monday night against Worthy, Mahomes and this now potent KC offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +8

The New England Patriots are buying into Mike Vrabel and he is getting the most out of them already in his first season on the job.  I still believe he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL in terms of getting the most out of his players.  And now they have a big opportunity to show the world on the national stage on NBC's Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to take full advantage.

The Patriots have great numbers averaging 25.5 points per game on offense and allowing 20.3 points per game on defense.  They have also been great on special teams, which is a staple of Vrabel-coached teams and a hidden advantage they have.  Drake Maye has taken that leap in Year 2, completing 74% of his passes for 988 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

The Buffalo Bills are 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start.  They have been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And last week they were life and death with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

While the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL likely not being without a single starter this week, the Bills are banged up.  They have five defensive linemen who are out or questionable and two starting LB's questionable on defense.  RT Spencer Brown is questionable for this one as well.  The Bills are outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play, but they have played the league's easiest schedule to this point, too.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bills pulling the outright upset at home last year, with their three losses coming by 3, 6 and 4 points.  This line should be less than a TD, so getting +8 with New England is a great value as I expect it to be decided by a single score either way.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks ML -140

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Bucs are 3-1 this season, but these 3-1 starts are not created equal.  The Seahawks have been dominant in their three wins, and they could be 4-0 but lost a coin flip game to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Bucs could easily be 0-4 as their three wins all came on game-winning drives from Baker Mayfield in the final seconds.

While the Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game averaging 27.8 points per game on offense and allowing 16.8 points per game on defense, the Bucs are dead even in scoring margin.  Their three wins came by a combined 6 points, and their lone loss came by 6 points at home to the Eagles last week.

The Seahawks have the rest advantage after beating the Cardinals on the road last Thursday, and they are certainly the much healthier team heading into this one.  And it's the poor health of the Bucs that is is the biggest reason I am fading them this week.

The Bucs will be without six starters this week in WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, CB Jamel Dean and DE Caljah Kancey.  Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury as his offensive line just can't protect him, and he's taking more hits than ever trying to extend plays with his legs.  The Bucs are also without key depth pieces in WR Jalen McMillan, CB Benjamin Morrison and SS Christian Izien.  They are without five guys in all in the secondary.

The Seahawks are without three starters on defense, but they are fully healthy on offense, and Sam Darnold is proving that his run with the Minnesota Vikings last year was no fluke.  I trust Darnold and this offense to be able to move the ball through the air with ease against this soft Tampa Bay secondary, and for this Seattle defense that has shown it has lots of depth and will make life tough on Mayfield.  

Seattle blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, consistently getting a pass rush with 4 guys and playing coverage behind it.  Mayfield is better against man-to-man schemes where he can use his legs.  Seattle will have a spy on him running at all times after watching film, and I expect a few interceptions from Mayfield trying to fit balls into tight windows in the zone.  He is due some turnovers as he has the most turnover-worthy plays of any QB in the NFL to this point.

The furthest flight in the NFL is from Tampa Bay to Seattle, and vice versa.  That makes this a tough road trip for the Bucs with the long travel.  Seattle still has one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, especially when they are good, which is the case this season as they will be going for first place in the NFC West with a win here.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cowboys/Jets OVER 46

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL and the 2nd-best offense in the NFL statistically.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game, 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 404.2 yards per game.

The Jets also have a terrible defense ranking 30th allowing 30.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses should have their way in this one, and this total of 46 is too low for a game involving the Jets and Cowboys.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in New York Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Panthers OVER 45

The Dolphins and Panthers are both dead nuts OVER teams with awful defenses and respectable offenses.  This total of 45 has been set too low, especially with the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation in Carolina Sunday.

The Dolphins rank 26th in scoring defense allowing 29.5 points per game, 25th in total defense allowing 378.8 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.6 yards per play.  They remain without CB Storm Duck, and not having him is a big loss going up against one of the best rookie receivers in the NFL in Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan.

Carolina ranks 19th in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points per game, 19th in total defense at 327.5 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They have even benefited from a fluky shutout win over the Falcons to pad those stats, plus the fact that they have been getting blown out in their other three games so opposing offenses have been very vanilla late in games against them protecting big leads.

This figures to be a competitive back and forth game with neither offense taking their foot off the gas.  Miami is currently a 1-point favorite over Carolina.  Injuries to this Carolina defense are a big reason Miami is favored on the road.  The Panthers will be without DE Tershawn Wharton and NB Chau Smith-Wade, plus LB D.J. Wonnum, DE LaBryan Ray and NT Came Jackson are all questionable.

I know the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill, but they just got TE Darren Waller into the lineup for the first time against the Jets last week and he made an immediate impact with two TD receptions from Tua.  Their chemistry will only keep getting better moving forward, and this offense still has plenty of playmakers to help make up for the loss of Hill.  The Dolphins have scored 27, 21 and 27 points in their last three games and should get in that ball park this week.

The Panthers have scored 22 and 30 points in two of their last three games and should be able to get in that ball park in this one as well.  I like the fact that both McMillan and Xavier Legette are healthy, which are Bryce Young's two best weapons.  And this will be the weakest defense that Young has faced yet this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -130

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 33.2 points per game and 30th in total defense at 406.8 yards per game.  And it's going to be no surprise to see the Houston Texans finally get their offense going this week just like the Chiefs did last week.

The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, plus S Kyle Hamilton (groin) and LB Odafe Oweh (eye) are both questionable.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense last week.

The Texans are coming off their best offensive output of the season scoring 26 points on what is a very good Tennessee Titans defense.  They had 353 total yards with a nice mix of run and pass, rushing for 129 yards and throwing for 224.  They found a RB with some explosiveness in Woody Marks, who had 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while also catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a score.  They have one of the deepest WR rooms in the league, and CJ Stroud should keep getting more and more comfortable with these new guys this week.

Now the Ravens are without QB Lamar Jackson who is worth as much to the point spread as any QB in the NFL.  The Ravens are off to a 1-3 start even with a healthy Jackson, and it's because he has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts due to an awful defense.  I like Cooper Rush as a backup, but it's a clear downgrade and the Ravens will be much easier to defend not having to worry about Lamar's dual-threat ability.

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 12.8 points per game, 6th in total defense allowing 280.5 yards per game and 7th at 4.9 yards per play.  This line has moved a lot, but it hasn't moved enough.  Houston is favored for good reason.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4.  But that 0-4 record has them undervalued as home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.  The Jets had a chance to win three of the four games they played this season with the exception of their 30-10 loss to the Bills in which they lost QB Justin Fields to a concussion in the 1H and never recovered.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards in their 34-32 loss in Week 1.  The Bucs needed a game-winning FG drive to beat them 29-27 at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Fields returned last week in a 27-21 loss at Miami in which the Jets outgained the Dolphins 404 to 300, or by 104 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers and had 13 penalties, yet still had a chance to win late.  These are all errors that are easily correctable, and I expect a much more disciplined effort from the Jets this week as they are highly motivated for that first victory.

The Cowboys are coming off their 'Super Bowl' in a 40-40 tie with the Packers in the Micah Parsons revenge game.  They had to go an extra 10 minutes in OT and could still be feeling the after-affects of that tie.  They are certainly hurting in the injury department coming out of that game, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm fading the Cowboys here.

The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb, LT Tyler Guyton, RG Tyler Booker, C Cooper Beebee and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  LG Tyler Smith is questionable, so they will be without at least three starters on the offensive line and two of their biggest playmakers.  They will also be without FS Malik Hooker who landed on IR after leaving that Packers game, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. is questionable.  What a mess.

The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  They legitimately have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Jets have a competent defense allowing 330.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And Justin Fields is back and healthy and getting more comfortable in this new offense each week.  He and Breece Hall should have a field day on the ground against this Dallas defense.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They are 4-0 in one score games.  They beat Dallas by 4 at home, Kansas City by 3 on the road, the Rams by 7 at home only after blowing a FG and returning it for a TD on the final play with a 1-point lead, and beat the banged up Bucs by 6 on the road last week.

The Eagles have the numbers of a team that should be 1-3 and not one that is 4-0.  They average 4.3 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  I realize the tush push hurts the offensive YPP, but this is still a bad offense with little to no passing game averaging 138 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.

The Broncos are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 3-1 or better.  They average 354.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense, and allow 285.3 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 0.7 per play.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away AJ Brown.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Eagles after four straight huge games.  They beat their division rival Cowboys in Week 1, had their Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in Week 2, had their NFC playoffs rematch with the Rams in Week 3, and last week were playing with double-revenge against the Bucs and got their revenge.  They won't be as motivated to beat the Broncos as they were those four teams, and they are 'fat and happy' after this 4-0 start.  The Broncos are motivated to beat the defending champs and it will show on the field.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3

I grabbed the Rams -3 Sunday night with the anticipation this line would move their way once the 49ers injury information came out later in the week.  This is now a great bet with the Rams currently as -7.5 to -9 favorites as of this writing Wednesday night.  If you missed out on the Rams -3 early in the week, I would recommend teasing the Rams down to -1.5 with the Jets +8.5 and/or the Commanders +8.5.  The Rams are going to win this game, so you can still get some value out of them with teasers if you missed out on the -3.

The 49ers' injury situation is even worse than anticipated.  I knew Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall and Josh Jennings would all be questionable at best.  Well, all three have been ruled out.  The 49ers will have to go back to Mac Jones, and he won't have anyone to throw to as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are also out.  Their top three receivers are going to be Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson and Skyy Moore.

The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing 20.3 points per game, 284.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They could easily be 4-0 as they blew a double-digit lead over the Eagles and had their game-winning FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD when they were trailing by a single point.  The 49ers won't be able to get much offensively against this Rams defense.

The 49ers also lost their best defender in DE Nick Bosa to a torn ACL.  The Jaguars ripped their defense for 26 points last week.  The 49ers could easily be 0-4 as their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They should feel fortunate to be 3-1 right now with some room to spare.  They can afford to lose this game, and they certainly will as this is a big step up in class for them.  

It's a terrible spot for the 49ers on the short week as one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL, while the Rams are one of the healthiest.  Sean McVay thrives in this situation, going 8-2 SU in Thursday night games in his tenure with Los Angeles.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ABC No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have some of the best playmakers in the league on offense which will help out Jake Browning.  But they also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and keep getting shredded.

The Bengals rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 30.3 points per game.  After holding the lowly Browns in check in Week 1, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Jaguars and 48 points to the Vikings the last two weeks.  I fully expect Denver to hang a big number on this poor Cincinnati defense.

The Broncos have clearly slipped a little defensively this season after benefiting from an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses last year.  They allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts two weeks ago and 23 points and 376 total yards to a banged up Chargers offense last week.  

I think Browning and company will do enough to help us cash this OVER 43.5 ticket in what will likely be in the ball park of a 30-20 win for Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.