Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 210 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Celtics over 210 -110 I like the value here with the OVER at this price. A lot of people are going to be thinking UNDER here with this being a matchup of two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, especially with how these teams can get after it on defense. The thing is, I just don't think these two are going to have enough in the tank to bring their "A" game defensively. Boston just played last night at Indiana in a game that saw 239 combined points. It's also the Celtics 3rd game in 4 days. 76ers had yesterday off, but are playing their 4th game in 6 nights. OVER is 25-10 in the Celtics last 35 home games after a combined score of 235 or more. It's also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Boston. Take the OVER! |
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12-12-19 | Predators -125 v. Sabres | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Predators -125 I like the value here with Nashville as a small road favorite against the Sabres. Predators come in off back-to-back wins, which saw them score 9 goals. They have won 5 of 8 overall and should have no problem making it 3 straight wins against Buffalo. Sabres are just 5-8 in their last 13. Buffalo is off a 5-2 win at home against St Louis, but are just 3-13 in their last 16 off a home win by 2 or more. Predators have also thrived in road games that are expected to be high-scoring, going 30-16 in their last 46 away from home with a total of 6 or more. Take Nashville! |
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12-11-19 | Knicks v. Warriors -4.5 | 124-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors -4½ -110 Easy play here on the Warriors laying a short number at home against the Knicks. The fact that the Warriors are just 5-20 overall and just lost at home as a favorite to a bad Memphis team, is a big part of the value we are getting here. The thing is the Warriors are still playing to win and this Knicks team is one they can have their way with, especially at home. New York is 1-10 on the road this season and are getting outscored on the road by 15.1 ppg. Not to mention the Knicks are in a tough scheduling spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Portland. Take Golden State! |
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12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -4.5 | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS CASH COW on Bulls -4½ -110 I like the value here with the Bulls laying a short number at home against the Hawks. Chicago has went from a team a lot of people were really high on to start the year to a team no one really wants anything to do with, especially as a favorite. Those that have taken advantage of the poor perception on the Bulls have been rewarded with some nice profits here of late. Chicago has covered 5 of their last 6 and now are laying a small number against a bad Hawks team that is just 3-10 on the road, where they are getting outscored by 13.3 ppg. Take Chicago! |
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12-11-19 | Boise State +3 v. Tulsa | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110 Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule. We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State! |
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12-11-19 | Senators +145 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Senators +145 The Senators are worth a look as a decently priced road dog against the Canadiens on Wednesday. This is just too good a price to pass up with Ottawa right now. Senators have won 2 of 3 and have scored 13 goals in their last 3 games. Montreal is also playing well with 3 wins in their last 4 games, but are still just 3-9 in their last 12 and have a losing record at home. Another big thing is the Canadiens just played last night in Pittsburgh and are just 2-7 in their last 9 at hoe when playing on back-to-back days. Take Ottawa! |
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12-11-19 | Rockets -10.5 v. Cavs | 116-110 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -10½ -115 I got no problem laying double-digits here with Houston, as we should get a big effort with the Rockets coming off a upset loss at home to the Kings. Not many better teams to get right against than the Cavs right now. After losing by 47 at Philadelphia on Saturday they responded by losing by 22 at Boston. Houston can pretty much name the score in this one. Rockets have covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and have covered 4 of their last 5 off a loss and failed cover. Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record and have lost 4 straight as a dog. Take Houston! |
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12-11-19 | Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5 | 83-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Massachusetts +4½ -110 I like the value here with UMass as a small home dog against the Bulldogs. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Minutemen after losing 5 straight and getting drubbed in their last game at Harvard 89-55. It' also the perfect time to sell high on Yale, who has won 5 straight and covered 8 in a row. It's not like UMass has been losing to a bunch of bad teams. They were a dog in all 5 losses and 4 of those were away from home. We should get a max effort here from the Minutemen in this one. For Yale, I think they are not only overpriced, but also in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight on the road in a 8 day stretch. Take UMASS! |
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12-10-19 | Knicks +9 v. Blazers | 87-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Knicks +9 -105 I like the value here with the Knicks as a near double-digit dog against the Blazers. This is just too big a price for Portland to be laying right now. Blazers are down two starters to injury in Zach Collins and Rodney Hood and are still trying to adjust to life with Carmelo Anthony. Portland has lost 3 of 4 and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Knicks have lost 9 straight, which is why the line is what it is, but several of those have been single-digit defeats. History is also on our side with New York. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games in the month of December are 45-20 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York! |
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12-10-19 | Flames v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Flames/Coyotes under 5½ -130 I really like the value here with the UNDER 5.5 in tonight's NHL matchup between the Flames and Coyotes. Both teams have winning records overall and come in playing well. Calgary has won 5 in a row and Arizona is 3-1 in their last 4. These are the kind of games teams take their game up a notch. While both teams are fully capable of scoring a bunch of goals, I expect these two defenses to win out. Flames have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 3 or fewer goals and the Coyotes have done the exact same. UNDER is 14-4 in Calgary's last 18 road games against a team with a winning record in the 1st half of the season and 10-3 in Coyotes last 13 against good offensive teams that are averaging 29 or more shots and are converting 17% or more. Take the UNDER! |
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12-10-19 | Nevada +8.5 v. BYU | Top | 42-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110 I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed. Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home. BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada! |
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12-10-19 | Devils +175 v. Stars | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Devils +175 The Devils are definitely worth a look here as a huge road dog against the Stars. We are just getting too good a price here with New Jersey due to them coming in having lost 5 straight. Dallas has won their last 2 but are just 2-4 in their last 6 and continue to struggle to score. The Stars have scored 3 or fewer goals in 6 straight games and when you can't put the puck in the net on a consistent basis you can lose to anyone. Dallas also has a history of underperforming against bad teams, as they are just 10-19 in their last 29 vs a team that's won between 25% to 40% of their games. Take New Jersey! |
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12-10-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +1 | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Penn State +1 -110 This line really says it all. You got the No. 4 ranked team and undefeated (10-0) team in the country the slimmest of road favorites against an unranked Penn State team. Books clearly like the Nittany Lions to win this game and so do I. Maryland is talented, there's no denying that, but they lack chemistry, routinely get off to slow starts and don't take high percentage shots. They were extremely fortunate to win at home against Illinois last time out, as they went on a 11-1 run in the last 5 minutes to win 59-58. Penn State isn't just good enough to get up on the Terps, but they can bury them if Maryland doesn't bring their 'A' game tonight. Nittany Lions are 5-0 at home and are shooting 47% from the field at home, while allowing just 38%. Atmosphere is going to be electric as well and this is easily the toughest true road game of the season for Maryland. Take Penn State! |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109 I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! |
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12-09-19 | Bruins -170 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Bruins -170 I got no problem laying the heavy juice with Boston on the money line in Monday's road game against the struggling Senators. Bruins are one of the best teams in the league, as they come in at 20-4, while Ottawa is just 12-17. Only three teams have fewer than the 25 points the Senators have posted in 2019. What I love here is we know we are getting a big effort from Boston, as they enter off back-to-back home losses to Chicago and Colorado. Ottawa on the other hand is in a free fall right now having lost 6 of their last 7. Bruins last game was a 4-1 loss to the Avalanche and that's worth noting, as they are 13-2 on the season after scoring 1 or fewer goals. Take Boston! |
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12-09-19 | Cavs +14 v. Celtics | 88-110 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Cavs +14 -105 The Cavs are definitely worth a look here as a huge road dog against the Celtics. I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Cleveland. I just think the number here has been inflated due to the fact that Boston is such a big public team and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Cleveland also comes in having lost 6 straight and are just 1-5 ATS in this stretch. These two played at Cleveland a little over a month ago (Nov. 5) and the Cavs hung around in that one at home, losing by just 6 and that was with Boston shooting 57% from the field. Celtics have also failed to produce in this spot, as they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 at home vs a team with a losing record and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Cleveland! |
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12-09-19 | Clippers v. Pacers +1.5 | 110-99 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pacers +1½ -109 The Pacers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Clippers Monday. Most are going to look to take LA as a small road favorite, but this is not an ideal spot for the Clippers, who had to play at Washington on Sunday and will be suiting up for the 3rd time in the last 4 days. Not to mention the Pacers are playing extremely well right now and are going to be fired up to show off against one of the league's top teams. Indiana is 8-2 in their last 10 games and have gone 9-2 on their home floor this season. Keep in mind the Clippers are just 4-6 on the road compared to 13-1 at home. Indiana is returning home from a 5-game road trip and are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Pacers are also 16-5-1 ATS last 22 at home vs a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take Indiana! |
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12-08-19 | Wolves +11 v. Lakers | 125-142 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Wolves +11 -105 Great value here with the Timberwolves as a double-digit dog against the Lakers on Sunday. LA has been costing the books a lot here of late, as they come in having covered 3 in a row. I think it's got them way overvalued here against Minnesota. This is not an ideal spot for the Lakers. While they are back home after a 3-game road trip, those 3 road games were at Denver, Utah and Portland and they got just 1 day off for this game. The Timberwolves are also a great road team, as they come in 7-4 SU and 7-4 ATS away from home this season. TWolves are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog, while the Lakers are just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 0-4 last 4 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Minnesota! |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NFL - RAMS/SEAHAWKS SNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Rams +1 -105 The Rams are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home turf against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Seattle has quickly went from a team not many people trusted to one of the biggest public plays on the board. Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which has created a ton of value here with the Rams. Even though LA is off an impressive 34-7 win at Arizona last week, the betting public can't get that ugly 45-6 loss to the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back out of their head. I just think the key here is Goff and that LA offense should be able to move the ball against what I think is a pretty average Seattle defense. I also don't love the spot for the Seahawks, as they are coming off 3 huge games. They played at San Francisco, at Philadelphia and at home against the Vikings. Rams are out to make a statement in this one and I expect them to do just that. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-08-19 | Sabres v. Oilers -165 | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Oilers -165 I got no problem laying the big juice with Edmonton at home against the Sabres. Not only are the Oilers the better team, but Buffalo comes in just 5-11 on the road and have gone just 3-8 in their last 11 overall. Teams are scoring at will against this Sabres defense. Buffalo has allowed 3 or more in 5 of their last 7 games and are giving up 3.5 goals/game on the road this season. That's a big problem for the Sabres as they are only scoring 2.6 goals/game on the road and Edmonton is scoring 3.4 goals/game at home. No surprise Sabres are a mere 8-27 in their last 35 on the road against good offensive teams that are scoring 2.85 or more goals/game. Take Edmonton! |
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12-08-19 | Bulls +8 v. Heat | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +8 -115 I like the value here with the Bulls as a big road against the Heat on Sunday. Chicago has been playing better here of late and come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but the books have been making it tough for them to cover with some inflated lines after their great start. Heat are just 3-5 ATS last 8 games. Bulls are a perfect 9-0 ATS last 3 seasons when playing on the road after covering 3 of their last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 trips to Miami. Take Chicago! |
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12-08-19 | Texas -8.5 v. Texas A&M | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Texas -8½ -109 I look for the Longhorns to have no problem winning by double-digits on the road against the Aggies. Texas is off to a strong 7-1 start to their season with the only loss coming on a neutral court to Georgetown. Texas A&M is just 3-4 and have lost 3 straight. The Aggies have also been one of the most overvalued teams in the country early on, as they are a miserable 0-7 ATS. Texas A&M just can't get their offense going and are up against a really good Texas defense. Aggies come in averaging just 57.1 ppg on 36% shooting. Longhorns are giving up 59.5 ppg on 41% shooting. Another thing is turnovers, Texas A&M does not take good care of the basketball and Texas knows how to force teams into mistakes. This should lead to a lot of easy points in transition for the Longhorns, which will allow them to win here comfortably. Take Texas! |
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12-08-19 | South Alabama +7 v. Richmond | 57-75 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on South Alabama +7 -109 I like the value here with the Jaguars as a decently priced road dog against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is a bit overvalued right now. Spiders have started out 7-1 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. For me the biggest thing that sticks out is the one common opponent in Auburn. While both teams lost to the Tigers, South Alabama lost by just 1-point and Richmond lost by 14. Another thing here is the Spiders could be short-handed, as two of Richmonds top scorers, Nathan Cayo and Grant Golden are both questionable to play. Jaguars are 13-5 ATS last 18 games against a team with a winning record and a dominant 11-3 ATS last 14 vs a team that's averaging 77+ points/game. Take South Alabama! |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills UNDER 44 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ravens/Bills under 44 -105 I don't see either offense being able to do a whole lot in this one. Baltimore's high-powered offensive attack had a difficult time moving the ball against a strong 49ers defense last week and I expect more of the same against a Bills defense that ranks No. 3 in the league in total defense. Buffalo's also well aware that their offense is not built for a shootout, so they are going to come out looking to play keep away from Lamar Jackson and try to grind out possessions with their running game. Another factor here for a low-scoring game is the conditions. Temps are expected to be in the mid 30's, but it's expected feel more like 25 degrees. There are also expected to be winds close to 17 mph. This should limit both teams ability to throw the ball, which means more clock getting eat up with all the run plays. UNDER is 15-6 in the Bills last 21 off a win, 13-5 in their last 18 as an underdog and perfect 7-0 in their last 7 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take the UNDER! |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125 I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bills +6½ -107 I really like the value here with Buffalo catching close to a touchdown at home against the Ravens. I just think we are seeing Baltimore way overvalued right now, as the betting public just can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and this team. Hard to blame them given the Ravens have covered 5 of their last 6. They did however fail to cover as a 6-point favorite at home last week against the 49ers. I not only think they could fail to cover at Buffalo this Sunday, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bills won this game outright. Buffalo is built for an offense like the Ravens and are going to be well-prepared for Jackson with the extra 3 days of prep they got this week after playing on Thanksgiving. I also don't love the spot at all for Baltimore, as they have been in 3 huge games the last 3 weeks against the Texans, Rams and 49ers. I just think they are going to struggle to match the intensity of the Bills and let's not overlook just how tough it is to win in Buffalo when they are playing well. Buffalo is 9-4 ATS with Josh Allen at QB as a dog, which includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a home dog. Ravens are just 5-12 ATS last 17 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a failed cover. Take Buffalo! |
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12-07-19 | Portland v. Seattle University -4.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Seattle University -4½ -109 Don't be fooled by the overall records in this one, as Portland is 6-2 and Seattle comes in at just 5-5. The value is with the RedHawks as a small favorite. Seattle comes in having won and covered 3 straight and their poor start can be attributed to a really tough schedule. Portland on the other hand has had it easy and are coming off a loss at home to CS-Northridge by 7 as a 5-point favorite. Both of these teams have played Incarnate Word at home. Seattle won by a score of 81-60, where Portland snuck out a 65-56 win. Redhawks won by 21 despite shooting just 42% from the field and turning it over 16 times, so the gap could have been a lot larger. Portland comes in allowing just 61.9 ppg and are holding opponents to 38% from the field. Seattle seems to play their best against good defensive teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Seattle! |
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12-07-19 | Colorado State v. Boise State -5.5 | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -5½ -109 I'm confident the Broncos are going to cover the spread at home against the Rams. Boise State comes in off a mere 2-point loss at New Mexico, but covered for the 4th straight game as a 5-point dog. Clearly the books haven't been giving this team the respect they deserve and I think this line should be closer to double-digits. Colorado State just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace in this one. Rams are only scoring 67.8 ppg away from home and will be facing a Broncos offense that is averaging 84.5 ppg on 47% shooting at home this season. Teams off a cover where they lost as a dog are 64-33 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games involving two marginal winning teams. Take Boise State! |
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12-07-19 | CS Sacramento +1 v. CS-Fullerton | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS VEGAS INSIDER on CS Sacramento +1 -110 I really like the value here the Hornets at basically a pick'em against the Titans. CS-Sacramento is 5-1 with their only loss coming at Colorado, which they covered in as a 17-point dog. CS-Fullerton is just 3-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. The Titans have lost 3 straight overall. Playing at home has not benefited Fullerton, as they are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 home games. They are also just 4-15 ATS last 19 vs a team with a winning record. Titans are 4-0 ATS on the season and are riding a 5-0 ATS run on the road. Take CS-Sacramento! |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 60 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Big Ten Championship VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin +17 -115 I really like the value here with the Badgers getting three scores against the Buckeyes in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game. The public is going to be on Ohio State in this one. Not only because they are off an impressive 56-27 blowout win at Michigan last week, but because of the fact they beat Wisconsin 38-7 with a 431 to 191 edge in total yards when these two played in the regular-season. As lopsided as the box score was in that first meeting, Wisconsin held their own for a good chunk of that game. Ohio State was only up 10-0 at the half and 24-7 going into the 4th quarter. I don't think Wisconsin's offense can play any worse than they did in that game and they closed out the season really strong on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 37 or more in each of their last 3. The other big factor here is the health of Buckeye's star quarterback Justin Fields. He's probable to play with a knee injury, but I don't think he's going to be playing at 100%. I could definitely see him not utilizing his legs like he has and I think taking away his ability to run really makes things easier on the Wisconsin defense. They should also be better off having already faced this offense once. Badgers are 32-15 ATS last 47 vs excellent offenses that average 450 or more yards/game and a perfect 8-0 ATS last 8 times they have been on the road when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Take Wisconsin! |
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12-07-19 | Penguins v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Penguins/Red Wings under 6 +105 I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NHL action between the Penguins and Red Wings. The books have completely missed the mark with this number, as both of these offenses are really struggling to score coming into this game. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or fewer goals in each of their last 4 games and their defense comes in having not allowed a goal in two straight games. Detroit has scored a whopping 5 goals in their last 6 games combined. Take the UNDER! |
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12-07-19 | Avalanche v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Avalanche/Bruins under 6 +100 The UNDER is worth a look here in Saturday's NHL action between the Avalanche and Bruins. Colorado is playing their 3rd straight on the road and the first two games of their trip have been low scoring. They won 3-1 at Toronto and 3-2 at Montreal. Expect a similar type of game here against the Bruins. Boston has scored 3 or fewer goals in 5 straight games and have allowed 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 9. Bruins did give up 4 in their last game, but history suggests they will return to form, as the UNDER is 22-12 in Boston's last 34 at home after giving up 4 or more goals. Take the UNDER! |
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12-07-19 | Morehead State +7.5 v. Illinois State | 50-61 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Morehead State +7½ -109 I like the value here with the Eagles as a decently priced road dog against Illinois State. The Redbirds got no business here being this big of favorite against Morehead State. Illinois State is just 3-5 and while a number of those losses have come against quality teams, they also lost to Grand Canyon and their only two Div 1 wins have come by 7 or less. I also don't love the mental state of this Redbirds team. Head coach Dan Muller, threw his team under the bus after their most recent loss to TCU, saying "We're just not good enough to win this game, a game like this." Not the first time Muller has been quick to speak poorly of his team. Clearly they aren't responding to his criticism and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if they lost this game outright. Take Morehead State! |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Georgia/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7½ -110 I love the value here with Georgia keeping this within a touchdown against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU has been the talk of college football this year and it's only a matter of time before Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow is named this year's Heisman winner. I just think with how the public is pounding LSU right now, it's resulted in too good a price to pass up with Georgia. The biggest thing that I think people are overlooking in this game is Georgia's defense and part of that is the public just doesn't think this LSU offense can be stopped. The Bulldogs defense was already going to be fired up for this game and I think all the Burrow talk will have them playing with a massive chip on their shoulder. Keep in mind Georgia hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game this season and are excellent against both the run and the pass. Ed Orgeron has proven he's more than just a motivator, but I still give the coaching edge to Georgia's Kirby Smart. People were saying the same things about Georgia the last two years when they met up with Alabama in the national title game in 2017 and in last year's SEC title game. They lost both of those games, but should have won both meetings. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining teams by 125 or more total yards and off a game where they gained 6.75 or more yards/play are 60-28 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. At the same time, neutral field underdogs that are outrushing opponents by 100 yards/game are 36-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Georgia! |
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12-07-19 | Hawaii +14 v. Boise State | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - MWC Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +14 -110 This is too good a price to pass up with the Rainbow Warriors as a two touchdown dog against the Broncos. Boise State is the household name and are nationally ranked, so no surprise the public is on the favorite in this one. I'm not saying Hawaii is going to win this game outright, but I'm confident they will put up a fight and keep this within two touchdowns. I know Boise State won the regular-season meeting by 22 at home, but there's reason to believe that Hawaii can make up the ground. Broncos only had a 518 to 438 edge in total yards and 29 to 24 advantage in first downs. The difference in that game was the Warriors turned it over 4 times to Boise State's 1 turnover. I also like the fact that all the pressure is on the Broncos, as they need this win to have any shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. Hawaii on the other hand can play loose, as they really got nothing to lose. Rainbow Warriors don't have the best defense, but road teams that are coming off a game where they allowed 7.25 or more yards/play, who have an experienced QB are a dominant 72-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if facing a team with an inexperienced QB. Take Hawaii! |
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12-07-19 | Delaware -1.5 v. George Washington | 56-66 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Delaware -1½ -109 I got no problem laying the small number here with the Blue Hens at George Washington. Delaware is off to a perfect 9-0 start to their season and have already won 4 games away from home, including 3 true road games. As for George Washington, they are just 4-5 to start the season and have lost to the likes of Towson, American, Morgan St and UMKC. The only reason the line is low, is because they have covered 4 straight. I just don't see GW being able to keep pace offensively. Delaware is averaging 77.1 ppg and shooting 48.9% from the field. The Colonials are only scoring 67.1 ppg and shooting 41% from the field. They will be up against a Blue Hens defense that only allows 63 ppg and 39% shooting. Take Delaware! |
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12-07-19 | Pelicans +9 v. Mavs | 84-130 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pelicans +9 -110 This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans in Saturday's early NBA action against the Mavs. Dallas comes in having gone a ridiculous 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. However, I think the books have had enough and have drastically inflated the number in this one. I know the Pelicans come in having lost 7 straight, but they have been competitive in a lot of those games. I also think the losing streak makes it a lot harder on the Mavs to get up for this one. Last time out New Orleans fell 132-139 at home to the Suns and that's worth noting as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home defeat. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games are 44-19 (70%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take New Orleans! |
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12-07-19 | West Virginia v. St. John's +4.5 | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St. John's +4½ -109 I like the Red Storm as a home dog against the Mountaineers in Saturday's early college hoops action. I just think West Virginia is getting a little too much love here. Mountaineers could be a little rusty having only played 1 game in the last 9 days. They will also be playing their first true road game since visiting Pitt way back on Nov. 15. St. John's comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 at home with their only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a decent Vermont team. What I like about the Red Storm here is they are locked in defensively to start the year. Opposing teams are shooting just 38% from the field against them on the season. West Virginia is only hitting 43% on the season and a mere 39% away from home. Take St John's! |
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12-07-19 | Florida v. Butler -3 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Butler -3 -110 The Bulldogs are definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Gators on Saturday. Butler is a perfect 8-0 to start the season with quality wins over the likes of Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford and Ole Miss. Each of the last 3 coming away from home. Florida is 6-2, but have not looked anything close to what we expected to see from this team coming into the year. Gators have been consistently overvalued by the books, as they are just 2-6 ATS. They have just not been able to find a rhythm offensively this year and hard to imagine they figure it out in a hostile environment against a stingy Bulldogs defense that is giving up just 55.5 ppg, while holding teams to just 40.6% shooting. Gators are a miserable 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons vs top caliber teams that are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game and 0-6 ATS last 6 vs a team that shoots 48% or better from the field. Bulldogs are 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a win and 13-2 ATS last 15 at home in Saturday games. Take Butler! |
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12-06-19 | North Dakota +7.5 v. Montana | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on North Dakota +7½ -110 The Fighting Hawks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Grizzlies. While both teams have an identical 3-5 record, North Dakota has played the tougher schedule, especially when you consider they have played just one game on their home floor all season. While neither team is lighting it up offensively, Montana has really struggled on that side of the ball, scoring just 63.2 ppg, and are scoring 5.7 ppg under what their opponents have allowed. North Dakota is at 69.0 ppg, despite all those road games. I also like the matchup for the Fighting Hawks, as they run their offense thru big man Filip Rebraca, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.2 rpg, while shooting 63% from the field. I just don't think Montana has the guys inside to keep Rebraca from having a big game here. Fighting Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take North Dakota! |
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12-06-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics | 95-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nuggets +3½ -105 I know the Celtics are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, but I think the Nuggets are the play when Denver visits Boston on Friday. These two teams played a couple weeks ago and Denver won 96-92, but it was much more lopsided than that, as the Nuggets held a 70-57 edge going into the 4th quarter. Boston is also not been a good bet when they are a small favorite. Celtics are just 4-10-1 ATS last 11 home games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, including a 2-6 ATS mark in this spot at home. Denver is playing on 0 days rest, but yesterday's game at NY was a blowout, so they will be ready to go. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS last 7 on no rest. They are also 3-0-1 ATS last 4 trips to Boston. Take Denver! |
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12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 234 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Heat under 234 -109 The UNDER is worth a look in Friday's NBA matchup that has division rivals Washington and Miami facing off. The scoring numbers here might suggest this thing going OVER, but I just don't think the pace of play will be at the point needed to eclipse this total. Washington is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 days. They are also primed to come out a little flat after a big upset win over the 76ers last night as a 7.5-point dog. Miami had yesterday off, but will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and should give a big effort defensively coming off a 19-point loss at Boston. UNDER is 33-16 in the Wizards last 49 off a home win and 31-17 in their last 48 after playing 2 straight games at home. Take the UNDER! |
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12-06-19 | Coyotes v. Penguins -165 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Penguins -165 The Penguins are worth a look here as a big home favorite against the Coyotes. Pittsburgh got back on track after back-to-back losses with a 3-0 win at home against the Blues on Wednesday. Penguins are a solid 4-2 now in their last 6 games and I look for them to have no problem cashing in a win against the Coyotes. Really tough spot here for Arizona, who is playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set and are also playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 days overall. Penguins have also owned this series, as they are 4-0 against the Coyotes over the last 3 seasons. Take Pittsburgh! |
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12-05-19 | Jets v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jets/Stars under 5½ -125 I like the value here with the UNDER 5.5 in Thursday's NHL action between the Jets and Stars. UNDER is 34-19 in Winnipeg's last 53 road games after winning 4/5 of their last 6 and 9-2 in their last 11 after playing their previous game at home. UNDER is also 30-13 in Dallas' last 43 home games after a game against a division rival, 10-2 in their last 12 off a blowout loss by 3 or more to a division foe and 7-1 in their last 8 at home when playing their 3rd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! |
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12-05-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisiana Tech +8½ -109 I really like the value here with Louisiana Tech as a decently priced dog at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is off to a strong 6-1 start and have covered 5 straight, but I think that has them getting a little too much respect here. This Louisiana Tech team is the real deal. They have 4 starters back from a team that managed to win 20 games last year despite being hit hard with injuries. Louisiana Tech is off to a strong 5-2 start with their only two losses coming by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana. Two teams I think are better than Mississippi State. Louisiana Tech can really disrupt teams with their defensive pressure. That combined with the experience they have at the guard position has them winning the turnover battle just about every time out. They have only lost the turnover battle twice all season and both times were a mere -2. Louisiana Tech is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road dog. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -109 The Raptors are worth a look here as I think we are getting some exceptional value with Toronto laying a short number at home against the Rockets. Toronto comes into this off a crushing OT loss at home to Miami and they are 7-1 ATS last 8 times off a loss by more than 10 points. As for the Rockets, they will have had just 1-day off since their double-overtime loss at San Antonio on Tuesday. Five different players for Houston logged at least 40 minutes with Westbrook, Harden and Tucker all playing 48+. I just don't see the Rockets have a whole lot left in the tank in this one. That game against the Spurs ended 235-233 and that's worth noting, as Houston is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a contest that had 245 or more combined points. Also, underdogs that have won 60% to 70% of their games and are off a game that went over the total by 30 or more are just 5-26 (16%) ATS if they are playing a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! |
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12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3.5 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night NO LIMIT ATS DESTROYER on Blazers -3½ -110 I really like the value here with Portland as a small home favorite against the Kings. I think we are getting a great price here on the Blazers due to the fact that this is a bad scheduling spot for them playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. With that said, the addition of Carmelo Anthony has given this Portland team a huge spark. Anthony has been way better than anyone could have expected. Last week he averaged 22.3 ppg on 57.4% shooting, including 45.5% from deep. His emergence gives the Blazers a legit 3-man scoring punch with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of which have started to shoot the ball much better since Anthony's arrival. Portland also doesn't have the luxury of taking nights off right now, as they got some major ground to make up with a 8-13 record. They have won 3 of 4 with the only loss to the Clippers last night. Kings had covered 12 of 13 before losing at home to the Bulls as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday and I think we are going to see them struggle a bit now that the books have clearly adjusted the number on them. Take Portland! |
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12-04-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland -4.5 | 71-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Portland -4½ -109 The Matadors suffered a massive blow prior to the season ever starting, as reigning Big West Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Lamine Diane, was ruled academically ineligible. CS-Northridge has started out just 1-7 without Diane and are 0-6 in games away from home, losing by an average of 21.6 ppg. On the flip side of this, Portland has came out of nowhere to start the year 6-1, with the only loss coming at USC by a mere 11-points. Keep in mind the Pilots only won 7 games all of last year. The schedule hasn't been overly challenging, but the important thing is they are 5-1 ATS. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by more than the number. Take Portland! |
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12-04-19 | San Diego State v. Colorado State +5 | 79-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Colorado State +5 -110 Colorado State is worth a look here as a home dog against the Aztecs. I just think San Diego State is getting a little too much respect from the books after starting out the season 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. One reason to expect the Aztecs to regress is how fortunate they have been in the battle at the 3-point line. San Diego State has shot a ridiculous 40.9% from deep. Considering the national average is 33%, it's only a matter of time before they start regressing and opposing teams are only hitting 32% from deep against the Rams. Aztecs' opponents have also shot just 26.7% from behind the 3-point line against them. They figure to struggle to improve that number here, as Colorado State is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Take Colorado State! |
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12-04-19 | Grizzlies v. Bulls OVER 221 | 99-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Bulls over 221 -110 I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Bulls hosting the Grizzlies. These two teams like to play fast, as the Bulls are T-11th in pace and Memphis is 6th. The Grizzlies are without star rookie point guard Joe Morant, but in the last two games without him both matchups saw a combined score of 221 or more. Not only do these two teams like to play fast, they also don't play much defense. Memphis is allowing 117 ppg and the Bulls are giving up 110 ppg. Another thing to keep in mind when we have two bad teams facing off against each other, the defensive intensity is usually not there. OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 vs a team with a losing home record and 5-1-1 in the Bulls last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! |
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12-04-19 | UC-Davis v. Northern Arizona -4.5 | 85-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Arizona -4½ -109 I like the value here with the Lumberjacks as a small home favorite against UC-Davis. Northern Arizona has to be the freshest team in the country, as they have only played 4 games all season and this will be just their 3rd in the last 19 days. That's a lot of valuable practice time, but at the same time the players have to be chomping at the bit to get on the floor against another team. Hard to not like their chances of winning here rather easily against a struggling Aggies team that comes in having lost 6 straight. Not only that but UC-Davis has to be running on fumes with all the travel they have had to do here of late. They have played 9 games and only 1 of those were on their home court, which was back on Nov. 7th. Each of their last 3 games have been true road contests. Aggies are just 5-14 ATS last 19 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS last 23 as an underdog. Take Northern Arizona! |
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12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue +1 | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Purdue +1 -110 The Boilermakers are worth a look here as a home dog against No. 5 Virginia. The fact that the No. 5 team is basically a pick'em against an unranked opponent says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Cavaliers, which means they must really like how Purdue matches up here. One thing is certain. The Boilermakers won't be thrown off by Virginia's grind it out style of play. Purdue ranks 348th in the country in tempo and want to win in the same way. I know the Cavaliers won at Syracuse earlier in the season, but that's a bad Orange team. This is easily their toughest true road game to date and with an offense that can't score it's hard to beat quality teams away from home. Purdue has lost all 3 of their meetings against top programs, falling to Texas, Marquette and FSU, but were very competitive in all 3 defeats. Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a statement win against one of the nation's best teams. Take Purdue! |
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12-04-19 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs -115 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Maple Leafs -115 I like the value here with the Maple Leafs as a small home favorite against the Avalanche on Wednesday. Colorado is the better team, but the Avalanche are just 8-6 on the road compared to 8-2 at home, so they are clearly more vulnerable away from home. I also like the fact that Toronto comes in playing well. While they lost last time out, they are 4-2 in their last 6 and are averaging 3.5 goals/game during this stretch. Colorado comes in off a 7-3 win over Chicago, but are just 5-12 in their last 17 after a game where they scored 6 or more. Take Toronto! |
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12-04-19 | Eastern Illinois +5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 69-74 | Push | 0 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110 I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released. The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State. Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois! |
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12-03-19 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Over/Under DESTROYER on Senators/Canucks under 6½ -115 The UNDER is worth a look in Tuesday's NHL action that has the Canucks hosting the Senators. It's just almost a no-brainer at this point to roll the dice with the UNDER in games involving Ottawa. UNDER is 8-2 in their last 10 and 11-4 in their 15 road games this season. It all has to do with their inability to score on a consistent basis and the high level they play at defensively. Senators have scored 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 9 games. During this same stretch they have allowed 2 or fewer goals 6 times. Vancouver has allowed 3 or fewer 5 of 6. Take the UNDER! |
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12-03-19 | Florida State +3 v. Indiana | 64-80 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Florida State +3 -109 The books are making a big mistake here with listing the Seminoles as a road dog against the Hoosiers. Florida State is the No. 17 ranked team in the country and have already played true road games at BC and Florida, as well as neutral site games against Tennessee and Purdue. They are 3-1 in those games with the only loss by a mere 2-points. Indiana is a well-known program and are simply getting a little too much love after their perfect 7-0 start to the season. The thing is, the Hoosiers should be 7-0 with who they scheduled. Indiana's strength of schedule ranks 345th out of the possible 353 Division 1 teams. They also haven't been dominating these bad teams like they should. They only beat Portland State by 11, LA Tech by 13 and S Dakota State by 14. Indiana's offense has not been tested, so don't be fooled by their 86.4 scoring average. I think they are in for a rude awakening on the offensive side of the ball against a deep, athletic and talented FSU defense that is only giving up 59.9 ppg (holding teams 10.1 ppg under their average) and have allowed opponents to shoot just 35.8% from the field. Take Florida State! |
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12-03-19 | Buffalo v. Vanderbilt -2.5 | Top | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt -2½ -110 I love the value here with the Commodores as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Vandy made a lot of buzz when they hired former NBA star Jerry Stackhouse to be their new head coach, but no one is expecting much of this team in year one. I get it, but I think those low expectations have the Commodores undervalued here against a team they should be able to handle. Buffalo was a great story last year winning 32 games and making it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, but they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama and lost 5 seniors off that team. Bulls have started out a respectable 5-2, but a big part of that is the schedule. I think a 63-68 home loss to Dartmouth speaks to how much less talented this team is compared to the previous two years. This is also Buffalo's first true road game of the season and that's always a difficult spot. Commodores are going to be motivated off that ugly loss to Tulsa at home last time out and are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MAC. Take Vanderbilt! |
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12-03-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | 118-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +4½ -105 Most are going to look at this game and just blindly take the Mavs. Hard to blame them given Dallas has won 7 of 8 and are off a 114-100 win against the Lakers, snapping LA's 10-game win streak. The thing is, the books aren't stupid. They know that as good as the Mavs been playing, they are due to for a letdown off that big win, especially given that they are on the road and facing a struggling Pelicans team that has lost 5 straight. Thing is while the wins aren't there, NO has been playing well with each of their last 3 losses coming by 5-points or less. The most recent was a 104-107 setback at home to the Thunder as a 1-point favorite. That result is worth noting, as the Pelicans are 18-7 ATS last 25 off a home loss and 9-1 ATS when off a home loss as a favorite. Take New Orleans! |
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12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +3 | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +3 -110 The Cavaliers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pistons. I just think there's no way Detroit should be laying points on the road against any team right now. The Pistons are just 7-13 overall and a miserable 1-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by 7.8 ppg. I know Detroit comes in off 132-98 blowout win over the Spurs at home, but they haven't won back-to-back games once all season. Cleveland is a work in progress, but they play hard and could be getting back a couple of key guys back. Rookie Dylan Windler could make his season debut and big man John Henson could return from injury. Either way I like the Cavs here, who are well rested having not played since last Friday. Pistons have also not shown well against bad teams, going just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland! |
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12-03-19 | Wild +115 v. Panthers | 4-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Wild +115 I like the value here with the Wild as a road dog against the Panthers. While both teams come into this matchup off a win, Minnesota has won 3 straight and 5 of 7, while Florida is just 1-3 in their last 4. Also, while the Panthers pitched a shutout in their last game against Nashville, they had allowed 4 or more in each of their previous 3 games. I just don't see them slowing down the Wild in this one. Minnesota is averaging 3.8 goals/game in their last 5. Take Minnesota! |
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12-03-19 | Oakland v. Western Michigan +1.5 | 72-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers ATS Line MISTAKE on Western Michigan +1½ -110 The Broncos are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Grizzlies, as my numbers suggest that Western Michigan should be the ones favored in this matchup. Both teams come in at 4-4, but Oakland is just 1-4 away from home getting outscored by almost 9 ppg. Broncos are 3-0 at home winning by 22 ppg. One of the big reasons the Golden Grizzlies are struggling away from home is they have inexperienced guards that are struggling to make the right plays, especially in the critical points of the game. Another thing here is rest. This is Oakland's third straight true road games since last Monday. Western Michigan on the other hand has had the luxury of not playing since last Tuesday. Broncos are 48-27 (64%) ATS in their last 75 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have also covered 6 of their last 7 vs a team from the Horizon. Take Western Michigan! |
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12-03-19 | Jacksonville State v. George Mason -8.5 | 60-67 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on George Mason -8½ -109 I got no problem backing the Patriots at home against Jacksonville State. George Mason is off to an impressive 8-1 start with their only setback coming in a true road game at Maryland. That loss to the Terps seemed to light a fire under this team as they went out and won 3 games in 3 days to secure the title at the Cayman Islands Classic last week. The Patriots will certainly looked to carry over that momentum here. George Mason has one of the best players you probably haven't heard of in junior forward A.J. Wilson. He's nearly averaging a double-double with 12.4 ppg and 9.7 rpg. He's also been a force inside averaging 3.8 blocks. He's anchoring a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 39.2% shooting from the field on the season. The Gamecocks are just 2-4 and those two wins have come against Brecia, who has no business being on the floor with a D1 school, and Chicago State, who they were favored by 20 against (only won by 9). I just don't see them keeping this within single-digits. Take George Mason! |
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12-02-19 | Pacers v. Grizzlies +10 | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +10 -110 I really like the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Pacers. I just think Indiana is getting way too much love from the books in this spot. Not a big surprise given the Pacers have gone 12-4 in their last 16. I just think it's asking a little too much for Indiana to be favored by this much given they will be playing their 2nd straight on the road, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Memphis snapped a 6-game skid with a 115-107 upset win as a 12-point dog at Minnesota yesterday and despite their struggles to win games have gone a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. Pacers are just 8-18 ATS last 26 on the road after playing their previous game on the road and 3-15 ATS last 18 on the road after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS last 17 when revenging a same season loss. Take Memphis! |
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12-02-19 | Florida Atlantic v. St Bonaventure -1.5 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -1½ -109 The Bonnies are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Owls in their final round matchup of the Boca Raton Beach Classic. FAU is lucky to even be in this game, as they barely squeaked by Illinois-Chicago 71-70 on Sunday. The Owls shot just 42% from the field and turned it over 20 times. FAU has also been overvalued on a consistent basis by the books to start out the season. Owls are just 1-5 ATS and are failing to cover by 3.5 points/game. Also, you can just look at how bad they were in their against their two toughest opponents, losing by 14 at Miami and by 19 at Alabama. Bonnies have won 3 of 4 since starting out 0-3 and to no surprise the turnaround has come with the recent additions of Osun Osunniyi and Jaren English to the rotation. Both were instrumental in their win yesterday over San Diego. Osunniyi had 15 points and 10 boards, while English had 2 points to go with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Owls are just 5-14 ATS last 19 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take St. Bonaventure! |
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12-02-19 | Golden Knights v. Rangers OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Golden Knights/Rangers over 6 -110 The OVER is the play in Monday's NHL action between the Rangers and Golden Knights. The game is in New York and there's been a lot of high-scoring games when the Rangers play at home, as they average 3.6 goals/game and are allowing 3.1 goals/game on their home ice. Vegas comes in having won 2 straight, both by a single goal. OVER is 10-3 in the Knights last 13 when they come in having won 2 straight and 10-2 in their last 12 off back-to-back wins by 1 goal. OVER is also 16-7 in the Rangers last 23 after going UNDER the total in their previous two games. Take the OVER! |
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12-02-19 | Suns -4.5 v. Hornets | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Suns -4½ -110 I really like the value here with the Suns, as I feel like this is the perfect spot to jump on them. Phoenix comes in having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. A big reason for their struggles is they had some key guys out. They have recently got them back and I look for them to get back to their early season form that saw them open the season 7-4. Charlotte is the perfect team to get right against. The Hornets are one of the last talented teams in the league and are just 4-10 in their last 14. Three of those four wins have come against a bad Pistons team and the other against an awful Knicks team. Each of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits. Look for the Suns to make easy work of the Hornets tonight. Take Phoenix! |
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12-02-19 | Furman -3.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109 A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason. The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined. USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage. Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman! |
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12-01-19 | San Diego v. St Bonaventure -2 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on St Bonaventure -2 -109 I really like the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number against the Toreros in Sunday's opening round action at the Boca Raton Beach Classic. St Bonaventure is just 2-4, but have been playing short handed early on. They just recently added both big man Osun Osunniyi and guard Jaren English to the rotation. Both have made big impacts already and I think this team is going to have no problem here against San Diego. Toreros are just 3-5 and simply should be a much bigger dog in this fight. Bonnies are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games. San Diego is a miserable 7-18-1 last 26 vs a team with a losing record. Take St Bonaventure! |
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12-01-19 | Canadiens v. Bruins -185 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Bruins -185 I got no problem laying the big juice with Boston at home against the Canadiens on Sunday. The Bruins are the best team in the league with an incredible 18-3 record. They are 10-0-4 at home. No way they are losing to this Montreal team. These two are headed in the opposite direction. Canadiens have lost 7 straight, while Boston has won 6 in a row. Bruins aren't just doing it with their offense, as they have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 2 or fewer goals and are giving up just 2.4 goals/game at home on the season. Take Boston! |
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12-01-19 | Mavs +7 v. Lakers | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Mavs +7 -110 I just think we are getting too good a price here with the Mavs because of the Lakers coming in having won 10 straight. Dallas isn't quite on that level, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. Their only loss coming against the Clippers, who are a really tough matchup for them with all the elite defenders they can throw at Luka Doncic. Lakers are a good defensive team, but I don't think they got anyone that can shutdown Doncic and there's going to be a game here soon where LA lays an egg and this winning streak comes to an end. I really think the Mavs could pull off the upset here. Either way, they should keep it close. Despite all the wins LA is racking up, they are just 2-4 ATS last 6 games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7. Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 road games and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Lakers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Dallas! |
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12-01-19 | Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount +2 | 51-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Loyola Marymount +2 -109 The Lions are worth a look here as a home dog against the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah should not be favored in this matchup. Loyola is just 2-4, but have played a pretty tough schedule as they have been a dog in every game this season with a line posted. I just don't like the matchup here for the Thunderbirds. You have to be able to shoot the 3-ball well against this zone defense of Loyola-Marymount that just isn't going to let you get easy looks inside. That's a problem for a Southern Utah offense that relies heavily on dribble penetration. Thunderbirds only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 31% from deep. Note it's much worse on the road, where they only average 4 made 3-pointers and are shooting 22%. Turnovers also figure to play a big factor in this outcome. Lions take really good care of the ball, while Southern Utah is one of the worst in the country at giving up the rock. Lions are 8-0 ATS last 8 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and the Thunderbirds are 0-7 ATS last 7 on the road after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Loyola-Marymount! |
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12-01-19 | Celtics v. Knicks +8 | 113-104 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Knicks +8 -115 I really like the value here with New York as a near double-digit home dog against the Celtics. No question Boston is the better team, I just think the Celtics are ready to get this game over with and head back home after a hectic last few days that has seen them host the Nets on Wednesday, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets Friday and then stay in New York Saturday for this one. Boston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now either, as they have lost 4 of their last 7. Knicks have lost 5 straight, but are a very respectable 4-3-1 ATS last 8 games. While the Celtics could struggle to get up for this one, New York figures to give a big effort as they haven't forgot about the ugly 118-95 home loss they suffered at the hands of Boston earlier this season. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December, who have lost 4 or more games in a row are a dominant 43-15 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York! |
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12-01-19 | Rhode Island v. West Virginia -9 | Top | 81-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110 I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years. Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close. Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia! |
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12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens OVER 46 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 49ers/Ravens over 46 -110 This is a no-brainer for me. This is just too low a total for a game involving Lamar Jackson and this high-powered Ravens offense. Baltimore is averaging 35.1 ppg and I think the perception here is the strong front of the 49ers can make things difficult. I just don't think that will be the case. San Francisco has struggled against mobile quarterbacks and there's not a more elusive signal caller in the game than Jackson. On the flip side of this, the 49ers have a much better offense than they get credit for. San Francisco is putting up 30.2 ppg. I know the Ravens defense is coming off two excellent games against the Rams and Texans, but I don't think this defense is elite by any means. OVER is 12-3 in the 49ers last 15 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points and 30-14 in their last 44 on the road after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight. OVER is 13-4 in the Ravens last 17 home games off a game on Monday Night Football. Take the OVER! |
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12-01-19 | Bucs -1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110 I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Titans/Colts TOTAL WINNER on Titans/Colts under 43½ -110 I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! |
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12-01-19 | Titans +1.5 v. Colts | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Titans/Colts ATS WINNER on Titans +1½ -110 I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER. The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game. As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36. Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER! |
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12-01-19 | Browns -2 v. Steelers | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Browns -2 -110 A lot of people are probably thinking the Steelers are the pissed off team after what went down in the previous meeting with Garrett swinging and hitting Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph with his own helmet. However, the Browns feel like Pittsburgh is the one that started it and now they want to finish it. The biggest thing here outside of all that is Cleveland is just the better team. They dominated the previous matchup in a 21-7 win. Pittsburgh's offense turned it over 4 times and have really struggled to score of late. It's so bad they are going to Devlin Hodges at quarterback. Hodges threw a 79 yard TD pass in the win over the Bengals last week. Take away that one big play and he was a mere 4 of 10 for 39 yards. Add in no Ju-Ju Smith-Schster and James Conner and NY simply doesn't have the talent offensively to win this game. Browns have won and covered 3 in a row and this recent surge has come after they played an absolutely brutal schedule early. I think they make a statement here by sweeping the Steelers and moving a step closer to locking in a Wild Card spot. Teams (Steelers) with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 14 or more with a winning pct. of 51% to 60% are a mere 13-36 (26%) ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland! |
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12-01-19 | Army v. Hawaii -2 | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Army/Hawaii BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Hawaii -2 -105 I think the public perception here is that because the Rainbow Warriors have already locked up a spot in the MWC title game next week, they aren't going to show up for this one. I just don't think that's the case. With a win the Rainbow Warriors would improve to 9-4 and that means they would have two shots to get to that elusive 10-win mark. As for Army, this has been a season to forget, as the Black Knights have come nowhere close to meeting expectations. Army has won their last two, but against two awful teams in UMass and VMI. Their other 3 wins are against Rice, UTSA and Morgan State. They just aren't very good. This is also a horrible matchup for the Knights, as they are not good at defending the pass, especially teams like Hawaii that can really stretch the field with their air attack. Look for the Warriors to score at will and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take Hawaii! |
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11-30-19 | Green Bay +6 v. Montana State | 98-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115 I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay! |
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11-30-19 | Texas A&M v. LSU -16.5 | 7-50 | Win | 100 | 88 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/LSU Prime Time ATS DESTROYER on LSU -16½ -110 I got no problem here laying the points with the Tigers at home against the Aggies. LSU is 100% locked in right now. Even with a spot in next week's SEC title game locked up, I don't think it's going to stop them from winning here by 20+ on senior day, especially with this being a night game. Texas A&M is better than they get credit for, as they have played a brutal schedule, but they still are now match for the Tigers. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for them coming off that emotional game at Georgia last week. Aggies are just 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more and 12-28 ATS last 40 on the road vs teams who are outscoring opponents by 17+ ppg. History is also on our side. Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB back as their starter are 51-19 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if they come in having outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards. Take LSU! |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina -10 v. NC State | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - UNC/NC State ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -10 -110 Easy play here for me on the Tar Heels winning by more than 10 at rival NC State. No question the Wolfpack will play hard here against their in-state rivals, but they just don't have enough talent or healthy bodies to make a game of it. NC State has been on a complete free fall, as they enter having lost 5 straight, including a heartbreaker 26-28 setback at Georgia Tech in their most recent game to put to bed any hopes of getting to a bowl. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mac Brown, but they still need one more win to get bowl eligible. All 6 of the Tar Heels' losses this season have come by 7-points or less, 3 of those decided by a field goal or less, including a mere 1-point loss at home to Clemson. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents and UNC has outgained those 3 teams by 3 ppg, while NC State has been outscored by 27.0 ppg. Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost in this spot by a ridiculous 30.6 ppg. Take North Carolina! |
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11-30-19 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 206 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers over 206 -109 The books have completely missed the mark with Saturday's NBA total between the Pacers and 76ers. I get these are two strong defensive teams, but Philadelphia is scoring 108.3 ppg and Indiana is even better at 109.3 ppg. Pacers are also red-hot on the offensive side of the ball right now, as they are scoring 115.6 ppg in their last 5. 76ers don't figure to be at their best defensively in this one, as they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. Same thing with the Pacers defense, as Indiana is also in the second game of a back-to-back. OVER is 5-1-1 in the Pacers last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and 4-1 in the 76ers last 5 on no rest. OVER is laos 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 when their starters combine for 160 minutes in the previous day and 6-2-1 in Indiana's last 9 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! |
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11-30-19 | Predators v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Predators/Panthers over 6½ -120 I like the value here with the OVER in Saturday's NHL total between the Panthers and Predators. The OVER is almost a no-brainer at this point in game involving Florida. The OVER is 8-1 in the Panthers last 9 games and the only game that didn't cash had 6 goals coming up just a 0.5 goal shy of the 6.5 total. A big reason for all these overs is the Florida defense, which has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall. Nashville has scored 3 or more in 4 straight. OVER is 9-1 in the Panthers 10 homes games this season with a total of 6 or more and 18-3 in their last 21 off a road game where both teams scored at least 3 goals. Take the OVER! |
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11-30-19 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Senators/Flames under 6 -105 The UNDER is worth a look in Saturday's NHL matchup between the Flames and Senators. Both of these offenses are struggling to produce. Calgary is averaging just 1.4 goal/game in their last 9 games and Ottawa has scored 2 or fewer goals in 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 overall. UNDER is 10-3 in the Senators last 13 games and 8-0-1 in the Flames last 9. UNDER is also 14-5 in Ottawa's last 19 road games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 10-2 in the Flames last 12 in the month of November. Take the UNDER! |
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11-30-19 | Notre Dame -16 v. Stanford | 45-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - ND/Stanford Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -16 -110 The Fighting Irish are worth a look here as a big road favorite against the Cardinal. Notre Dame has really responded well to that ugly loss to Michigan, as they have rattled off 4 straight wins. Each of the last 3 have come in blowout fashion. They crushed Duke 38-7 as a 7-point road favorite, rolled Navy 52-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite and destroyed BC 40-7 as a 20.5-point favorite. Irish are clearly okay with going to a New Year's Day bowl and they can pretty much lock up a spot with a win here. Stanford on the other hand has lost 3 straight and failed to cover all 3. The most recent being a 20-24 home loss to rival Cal, which marked their 7th loss of the season and put to rest any hopes of getting to a bowl game. With K.J. Costello expected to miss this game, I just don't know how the Cardinal offense is going to be able to score enough to keep this close. Their defense has given up 31 or more in 3 of their last 5 and this Irish offense is one of the best in the country averaging 36.4 ppg, scoring almost 10 points more than what their opponents allow. ND is 23-10 ATS last 33 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road games vs a team with a losing record. Cardinal are just 2-8 ATS last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a loss. Take Notre Dame! |
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11-30-19 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee OVER 45.5 | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt/Tennessee over 45½ -110 I really like the value here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC East clash between Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Commodores are giving up 38.2 ppg and 513 ypg on the road this season and 37.0 ppg and 487.5 ypg in conference play. There's a realistic chance the Vols could eclipse this total on their own. However, I don't think they will need to. Tennessee's defense is solid, but Vanderbilt should be able to generate some offense in this one. I think they could easily get to 20-points and that would have us flying past this total. Just last year they hung 38 on the Vols and have scored 28 or more in 4 straight meetings. Take the OVER! |
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11-30-19 | Denver +1 v. SE Missouri State | 51-66 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104 I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point. SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver! |
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11-30-19 | East Carolina v. James Madison -1.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109 The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game. ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome. ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison! |
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11-30-19 | NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115 UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas. One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%. Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro! |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 50 | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Ohio St/Mich Total NO-BRAINER on Ohio State/Michigan over 50 -110 The OVER is worth a look in Saturday's highly anticipated Big Ten showdown between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 13 Michigan. I think the fact that the Buckeyes are coming off a much lower scoring game than expected against Penn State has created some value here. That was the first time this season that Ohio State failed to score at least 34 points and had they not turned it over 3 times they probably would have got there, as they put up over 400 yards of offense against the Nittany Lions. Michigan's got a good defense, but they have not been able to slow down Ohio State in recent years. Buckeyes have put up at least 30 on the Wolverines in each of the last 6 meetings, 4 times scoring 42 or more. Wolverines offense has improved greatly over the course of the season and I think with them playing at home they can make more than enough plays to push this thing OVER the mark. OVER is 11-3 in the Buckeyes last 14 as a road favorite and 10-2 in Michigan's last 12 at home against a conference rival. Take the OVER! |
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11-30-19 | Indiana v. Purdue +7 | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 91 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +7 -115 I love the value here with the Boilermakers catching a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. I think the fact that Purdue is sitting at 4-7 and can't get to a bowl has people thinking they won't show up. I don't think that will be the case at all. If anything it just continues a run here of the Boilermakers being undervalued, as they have covered 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. Indiana's already got 7-wins, so they are just playing to get to a slightly better bowl, but I also think they could be out of gas here after playing their last two games against big time opponents in Penn State and Michigan. Hoosiers defense struggled against both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. Road teams who are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg are just 45-87 (34%) ATS after allowing 31 or more in 2 straight over the last 10 seasons. Boilermakers are also a dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Take Purdue! |
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11-29-19 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 235 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night TOTAL BAILOUT on Wizards/Lakers under 235 -105 UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Wizards. While LA has seemed to figure out the offense here i n the last couple of weeks, I just feel the number is way too high for the spot. I just don't see the Lakers looking to push the pace at all in this one. They just finished up a 4-game road trip that spanned just 6 days and they just last played in New Orleans on Wednesday. If LA wants to play slow, they are good enough to dictate the tempo to their liking. Wizards are a team that likes to play fast, but they too figure to be a little slower than normal. Washington is playing it's 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. UNDER is 15-5 in Lakers last 20 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 24-9 in their last 33 after scoring 105 or more in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 17-7 in their last 24 at home vs a team with a losing record and 18-5 in their last 23 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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11-29-19 | South Florida v. Central Florida UNDER 63.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Late Night Total DESTROYER on South Florida/Central Florida under 63½ -110 I just feel the books have set the total way too high for tonight' AAC action between USF and UCF. You really need to good offensive teams to go over a total like this and I don't think that's the case at all. The Bulls have done next to nothing offensively when matchup up against the top teams in the American, scoring just 3 against Navy, 7 against Temple, 17 against Cincinnati and 10 against Memphis. Even against a UCF defense that has allowed 29+ in 3 straight games, I think they struggle to get to 20 here. The other key here is the Bulls aren't a complete pushover on the defensive side of the ball and we know they are going to give a big effort against their in-state rivals. USF is giving up less than their opponents average on the season and are only allowing 22.7 ppg and 333 ypg on their home field. Take the UNDER! |
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. San Diego State -2 | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104 I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog. Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season. As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State! |
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11-29-19 | Raptors -3.5 v. Magic | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt Oddsmakers ERROR on Raptors -3½ -110 Easy play here with Toronto laying a short number at Orlando on Friday. The Raptors have already had their way with the Magic twice this season. They won by 9 at home on Oct. 28 and then by 16 in the rematch on Nov. 20. While both of those were played in Toronto, I don't think being at home will be enough for Orlando to change the script. Big reason for that is the Magic are still missing two of their best players as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic both remain sidelined with ankle injuries. Not to mention Orlando has just not showed up against the better team. Raptors are way better than just about anyone anticipated after losing Kawhi Leonard. They have won 5 straight and are 13-4 overall. Road favorites (TORONTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 69-35 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto! |
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11-29-19 | UAB v. Kentucky UNDER 130 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB /Kentucky under 130 -110 I love the value here with the UNDER in this one. While UAB has little to no shot of winning this game, I think the Blazers are good enough defensively to hold their own against an injury plagued Kentucky team to keep this UNDER the mark. UAB's defense is the main reason they are off to a strong 4-1 start. Blazers only average 64.0 ppg, but are holding teams to just 58.4 ppg. While the strong defensive play has come against some weak competition, they are holding teams a full 8-points under their scoring average. Kentucky's defense has been outstanding, as they are allowing just 61.7 ppg and holding teams almost 12 points under their average. I could easily see the Blazers failing to score more than 50 and I just don't see Kentucky's offense going off for 80+ in this one. UNDER is 10-2 in UAB's last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 10-2 in Kentucky's last 12 non-conference, 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 20+ and 13-3-1 in their last 17 vs a team from C-USA. Take the UNDER! |
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11-29-19 | Lightning v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Lightning/Capitals over 6½ -120 I'm confident the Capitals and Lightning will combine for at least 7 goals Friday afternoon. OVER has cashed in each of Tampa Bay's last 3 games and they are a big reason why, as they have scored 18 goals in their last 4 games, and have hit 3 or more in 8 of their last 9. Key here is the Lightning also give up their fair share of goals and the Capitals are more than capable of hanging a big number. They just scored 4 in their last game against Florida and are averaging 3.7 goals/game on the season. Lightning also tend to see a lot of high scoring games when they are playing on short rest. OVER is 6-0 in their last 6 when playing their 3rd game in 5 days. OVER is also 10-3 in Washington's last 13 after scoring 4 or more. Take the OVER! |
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11-29-19 | SIU-Edwardsville +12.5 v. Cal-Riverside | 51-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110 SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number. The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville! |
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11-29-19 | Jets v. Ducks -120 | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Ducks -120 This line makes no sense and whenever something looks this obvious it's usually a good idea to look the other way. Winnipeg comes in having won 9 of their last 13 games. The Ducks on the other hand have a mere 11-wins for the entire season and are just 2-9 in their last 11. Anaheim is coming off a 3-0 win against the Islanders in their last home game and this just feels like a massive flat spot for the Jets, who are playing their second straight on the road, are coming off a big upset win at San Jose and have to play at LA tomorrow. Take Anaheim! |