Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-19 | Lakers v. Pelicans +6.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Pelicans +6½ -110 I like the value here with New Orleans as a decent home dog against the Lakers. Anytime LA is playing an inferior team you know the books are going to inflate the number and I think that's definitely the case here. Lakers got nothing to prove here. They come in having won 8 straight and 15 of 16 overall. With their next two at home and Thanksgiving tomorrow, I have a hard time believing they are all that interested in this one. Pelicans on the other hand are going to play their hearts out, especially with all the old Lakers that make up this New Orleans roster. Lakers are just 1-3 ATS over their last 4, which includes a mere 1-point win at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. I see this going very similar to that one. Take New Orleans! |
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11-27-19 | Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -1½ -110 This one is pretty simple. When Dana Altman's Ducks are matched up against a ranked team, you back Oregon. The Ducks are a dominant 18-2-1 ATS since 2015 against ranked opponents. As good as Seton Hall has looked early on, I would argue that Oregon has looked even better. While Seton Hall has that close call at home against Michigan State, that's really the only tough matchup they have had. Ducks have beat the likes of Boise State, Memphis and Houston and the closest any team has got to beating them is 8-points. Ducks are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral site and a perfect 7-0 ATS when they come in having covered 4 or more in a row. Take Oregon! |
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11-27-19 | Golden Knights +120 v. Predators | 4-3 | Win | 120 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line DESTROYER on Golden Knights +120 I like the value here with Vegas as a small road dog against the Predators. While Nashville comes in having won 2 straight, both of those wins came against a struggling St Louis team, who is just 2-5 in their last 7. Prior to beating the Blues the Predators had dropped 6 straight. Even in the wins over St Louis the offense continued to struggle. Nashville has scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. Vegas has a solid defense. Knights are only giving up 2.4 over their last 5 and just 2.7 on the road this season. Both teams are at or below .500. Knights are 12-2 in their last 14 vs a marginal losing team in the 1st half of the season and the Predators are 4-8 in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Las Vegas! |
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11-27-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors | 98-126 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Knicks +10½ -109 I really like the value here with New York getting double-digits against the Raptors. While these two teams are polar opposites in terms of their overall record, the Knicks have shown a lot of fight against some of the top teams. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and in their last road game against a good 76ers team that only lost by 5 as a 13-point dog. Knicks are 3-0 ATS this season when getting double-digits and 6-1 ATS when catching more than 7. Toronto comes in having won 4 straight going 3-1 ATS in this stretch. However, the Raptors are just 10-22 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of 4 and just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after 4 or more consecutive wins. Take New York! |
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11-27-19 | Nets +7.5 v. Celtics | 110-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Nets +7½ -105 This is too good a price here with Brooklyn catching a big number on the road against the Celtics. While the Nets will still be without Kyrie Irving, they haven't really missed him of late. Brooklyn comes in having won 4 straight. The Nets are also a strong 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games. No question Boston is the better team and this is probably one they had circled to start the year, as it would have been their first game against Irving since he left. I think with him being sidelined it takes away a lot of motivation for the Celtics and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them come out a bit sluggish. Boston is just 1-8-2 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a losing road record and just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 home games overall. Nets on the other hand are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Brooklyn! |
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11-27-19 | Flames -115 v. Sabres | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Flames -115 Calgary is worth a look here as a small favorite against the Sabres. You might be wondering how the Flames are favored here, as they are just 1-7 in their last 8 games and playing on the road. However, Buffalo hasn't been any better. They are just 2-9 in their last 11. Key here for me is rest. Buffalo will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and bad teams are typically the ones that struggle the most in these tough rest spots. Sabres are also a team to fade when things are going bad. They are 12-30 in their last 42 after losing 2 of their last 3 and a mere 4-16 in their last 20 when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10. Take Calgary! |
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11-27-19 | Niagara +9.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 54-77 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Niagara +9½ -109 The Purple Eagles are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Jaguars. Niagara is way undervalued here due to the fact that they have started out 0-4. Thing is 3 of those were true road games against better teams and they were also a dog in their lone home loss. IUPU-Ft Wayne is 3-5 and have two wins against non-D1 schools and the other was against an awful Stetson team. The Jaguars have no business laying double-digits in this game. They are just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record, while the Purple Eagles 12-3 ATS last 15 after 2 or more straight losses. Take Niagara! |
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11-27-19 | St. Louis +3 v. Boston College | Top | 64-54 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109 Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall. These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul. Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates. Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis! |
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11-26-19 | Wizards v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Nuggets over 226½ -110 I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action between Denver and Washington. The Nuggets have been great defensively over their recent 9-1 stretch, but I just don't think we are going to see a big effort on that side against a bad Wizards team, especially with the holiday's coming up and Denver getting a much-needed 3-day break after this game. Washington is also a team that just doesn't play any defense and if Denver gets up big they aren't going to keep trying on the defensive side of the ball. Wizards have allowed 113 or more points in 11 of their last 12 games, giving up 120 or more 7 times in this stretch. Only one of their last 6 games has seen a combined less than 243 points. OVER is 20-8 in the Wizards last 28 off a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 31-17 in their last 48 with a total set in the 220's. Take the OVER! |
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11-26-19 | Dayton -1 v. Virginia Tech | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109 The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from. That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS. One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton! |
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11-26-19 | Richmond v. Auburn -8 | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109 Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch. Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes). Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn! |
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11-26-19 | Wild +125 v. Devils | 3-2 | Win | 125 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Wild +125 This is too good a price to pass up with the Wild as a dog at New Jersey. I just don't feel the Devils are playing well enough to be more than a pick'em here. New Jersey is just 4-5 in their last 9. They don't score a lot (2.6 goals/game) and are not a good defensive team either (3.6 goals/game). Minnesota has struggled some of late, but are a dominant 30-14 in their last 44 when coming into a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. They are also 32-16 last 48 after giving up 3 or more goals in 2 straight games. Take Minnesota! |
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11-26-19 | Wisconsin -5 v. New Mexico | 50-59 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -5 -109 We are getting a great price here with the Badgers coming off yesterday's upset loss to Richmond. Wisconsin's defense did their part holding the Spiders to 62 points, but the offense just couldn't buy a basket, as they shot just 17-50 (34%) and were 7-27 (26%) from deep. While the Badgers offense is not going to be an offensive juggernaut, I would expect them to shoot the ball a lot better today. One big reason for that is they should get some nice looks off turnovers. New Mexico coughed up the rock 24 times in yesterday's 25-point loss to Auburn. With that loss the Lobos fell to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. New Mexico is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs a good defensive team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Wisconsin! |
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11-26-19 | Murray State -8 v. Weber State | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110 Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57. The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego. I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State! |
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11-26-19 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Gardner-Webb | 64-81 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +6 -110 I like the value here with the Skyhawks as a decently priced dog in Tuesday's opening round matchup in the Cancun Challenge. There's no reason for Gardner Webb to be laying this kind of number here. The Runnin' Bulldogs have started out 0-5 and while a lot of those have come on the road against Power 5 teams, they also lost at home to Furman. Another thing here is Gardner Webb has to be running on fumes, as they have played 4 straight on the road before making the trip to Cancun for this tournament. The most recent coming Friday at South Carolina. While Tenn-Martin has also played their last 3 on the road, they have been off since last Tuesday. Skyhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs a team that's been outscored by 4+ points/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Tenn-Martin! |
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11-25-19 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Spurs +5½ -110 No surprise here that we are getting value with San Antonio at home against the Lakers. The Spurs have to be one of the biggest disappointments this season, as they are just 6-11 and had lost 8 straight prior to beating the Knicks on Saturday. Lakers on the other hand are a massive public team and they come in having won 7 straight and 14 of 15. While LA is a profitable 9-7 ATS on the season, the books have made some adjustments of late and they have failed to cover 3 in a row. They are also just 3-4 ATS on the road compared to 6-3 ATS at home. Key here is the Lakers are playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days and they barely won last time out 109-108 at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. James and AD both played 35+ in their back-to-back games Friday/Saturday. I just don't think the Lakers are going to have the energy here to compete against a San Antonio team that is going to give it all they got. Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take San Antonio! |
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11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -2 | 78-51 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bradley -2 -104 The Braves are definitely worth a look here as a small favorite against the Wildcats. Bradley has won 4 straight since an opening night loss at St Joseph's, who has looked pretty good early on. These two have played 2 common opponents, Northwestern is just 1-1 with 0.0 scoring margin, while the Braves are 2-0 with a +10.5 ppg scoring margin. This is going to be a long season for the Wildcats, who lost their top 3 scores from a team that won just 13 games (4-16 Big Ten) and finished a pathetic 316th in scoring at 65.9 ppg. This is a very young team and will be going on the road for the first time after playing 4 straight at home. Bradley on the other hand has a lot coming back from a team that caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and wound up making the NCAA Tournament by winning the MVC Conference title. Braves will bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Bradley! |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110 I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-25-19 | CS-Northridge v. Green Bay -7.5 | 84-85 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Green Bay -7½ -109 Easy play here with the Phoenix laying single digits against the Matadors. CS-Northridge has started out 0-6 with all 6 losses coming by double-digits. They have shown absolutely no ability to be competitive and it's resulted in a 1-5 ATS mark during their awful start. I expect it to continue here. Wisconsin-GB is just 1-3, but their 3 losses have all come on the road against quality teams in Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They not only are the better team, but have a big edge here in rest, as CS-Northridge just played yesterday against Colgate, while the Phoenix are playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 13th. Struggling early is nothing new for the Matadors, as they are 22-47-3 ATS last 72 non-conference games. Phoenix on the other hand are a dominant 12-4 ATS last 16 off a loss and have covered 5 of 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay! |
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11-25-19 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Kings/Celtics under 208½ -110 I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between Boston and Sacramento. These two teams met just 8 days ago in Sacramento and the Kings won that contest 100-99. Both defense played really well in that game and the pace was extremely slow. Playing slow is what the Kings want to do, as they 27th in the NBA in pace of play. I like them to dictate the tempo once again, as Boston is likely to be without starting point guard Kemba Walker. They are already down a big offensive weapon in Gordon Hayward and while Marcus Smart is going to play, he's at less than 100%. UNDER is 24-12 in Kings last 36 non-conference games, 16-6 in their last 22 vs a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 on the road. UNDER is also 12-3-1 in Boston's last 16 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days and 5-0 n their last 5 non-conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-25-19 | Magic v. Pistons UNDER 206.5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/Pistons under 206½ -110 Really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup that has the Magic visiting the Pistons. It's been a struggle on the offensive end for Orlando who are 29th in the league at just 102.1 ppg. It's not going to get any better in the short-term, as the Magic will be without Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. Gordon is 4th on the team at 13.1 ppg and Vucevic is second at 17.1 ppg. These are Orlando's two best offensive rebounders. Magic also are the league's slowest team in pace of play and will have to rely even more on their defense and slow tempo to have any shot here. Detroit's offense isn't exactly clicking, as they have failed to top 90 in 2 of their last 3. The Pistons also rank in the bottom half of the league (21st) in pace of play. UNDER is 13-3 in Orlando's last 16 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 and 29-13 in their last 42 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is 14-3 in Pistons last 17 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Take the UNDER! |
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11-25-19 | Flames v. Penguins -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Penguins -150 The Penguins are worth a look here at home against the Flames. Pittsburgh is coming off a 4-1 win at home against New Jersey and seems to have figured out how to keep the offense afloat without the injured Sidney Crosby. I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against a Calgary team that is not playing well at all. Sure the Flames won last time out, but they had lost 6 straight prior to that win and are just 5-10 on the road this season. Take Pittsburgh! |
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11-25-19 | Loyola Maryland -2 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola Maryland -2 -109 The Greyhounds are worth a look here a small favorite against IUPUI in the first round of the Cayman Islands Mainland. Loyola-MD has covered 3 straight and are fresh off a mere 4-point loss at George Mason as a 8-point dog. They are just 2-3 overall, but have played 4 of 5 on the road. IUPUI has a big upset win at USF, but that's it. They also followed up that win over the Bulls with a 23-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. The Jaguars are just 1-3 ATS on the season. In the loss to the Ramblers they gave up 85 points and that's worth noting, as they are 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons after allowing 85 or more. Greyhounds are 19-7 ATS last 26 on the road after covering a game on the road where they lost outright. IUPUI is also a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been matched up against a team with a losing record. Take Loyola-MD! |
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11-24-19 | Hofstra -2 v. CS-Fullerton | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Hofstra -2 -109 I got no problem laying a short number here with the Pride at CS-Fullerton. Hofstra just went on the road an upset UCLA 88-78 as a 14.5-point dog on Thursday. That's a big time momentum boost for this team. It definitely makes the quick turnaround on the road a lot easier. I also think they could catch Fullerton a bit flat here. The Titans only game in the last 11 days is a home game against Stanislaus State. Their last game against a Div. 1 opponent was back on Nov. 13th. Not to mention this is a team that's picked to finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference. Pride are 21-7 ATS last 28 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 12-4 ATS last 16 non-conference games. Fullerton is just 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a road game. Take Hofstra! |
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11-24-19 | Middle Tennessee v. Ohio -1.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -1½ -109 Definitely worth a look here on Ohio as a small home favorite. The Bobcats come in having lost 3 straight, but those 3 defeats have come against Villanova, Baylor and Utah. Prior to that they had won their first 3 games, which included upset road wins over St Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog and Iona as a 4.5-point dog. Ohio has shot the ball well at 45.3% and are averaging 9 made 3-pointers. Blue Raiders have really struggled with strong offense teams that can shoot from deep. Middle Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS last 15 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 3-12 ATS last 15 vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Blue Raiders are just 9-18 ATS last 27 as a dog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Ohio! |
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11-24-19 | Hurricanes -180 v. Red Wings | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Hurricanes -180 I got no problem laying the big juice with the Hurricanes at New Jersey Sunday night. Carolina comes in to this one playing well, as they just took down Florida 4-2 on Saturday and have won 5 of 6 overall. Same can't be said about the Devils, who have lost 5 straight and are playing absolutely no defense during this run. New Jersey has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 straight games. That's a problem against a Hurricanes offense that has scored 4 or more 5 of their last 6 games. Take Carolina! |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys +6 v. Patriots | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cowboys +6 -115 The Cowboys are definitely worth a look here as a near touchdown dog against the Patriots. New England was able to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Ravens with a 17-10 win at Philly last week, but that was not the kind of performance you would expect to see out of the Pats coming off their bye. The defense was sensational after a slow start, but the offense was far from impressive. Tom Brady is going to play, but he doesn't look 100%. They also got a lot of skill players and offensive linemen banged up right now. Dallas has the guys on defense to keep them in check. I also think Cowboys offense is the kind of offense that can have success against this Patriots defense. New England is built more to stop the pass than they are the run. I think Dallas can move the ball behind Zeke and keep this within one-score all the way. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 75% or more of their games and come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games are just 10-29 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 74% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Dallas! |
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11-24-19 | Air Force v. Indiana State -2 | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Indiana State -2 -109 I like the value here with the Sycamores as a small favorite against the Falcons. Air Force comes in having lost 3 straight and have simply not shot shot the ball well. During the losing streak they have hit 42% or worse from the field in each game. They are also getting ominated on the board and losing the turnover battle. Indiana State is just 1-4, but they got their first win last time out against Loyola-Marymount, winning 72-60 as a slim the 3-point favorite. That's the same Loyola team that just a day earlier beat Air Force by 14. Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the Sycamores are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a team from the MWC. Take Indiana State! |
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets UNDER 231.5 | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Rockets under 231½ -109 Most are going to look to pound the OVER here, as you got a Mavs team coming off back-to-back 140+ point showings against a Rockets team that can score all kinds of points behind their dynamic duo of Westbrook and Harden. I just think it's a lot harder than people realize for these NBA players to get their minds right for these early start times on the weekend, especially Sunday. Add in both of these teams playing on limited rest and I think we get a lot lower scoring game than you would normally get with these two. UNDER is a strong 17-7 in the Rockets last 24 games with a total of 230 or more. It's also 35-19 in the Mavs last 54 after 2 straight where they shot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110 Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! |
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11-24-19 | Broncos +4 v. Bills | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos +4 +100 I like the value here with Denver getting more than a field goal against the Bills on Sunday. I just feel these are two teams with very misleading records. The Broncos are no where close to as bad as their 3-7 record would suggest. We saw that in last week's near upset of the Vikings on the road. They have 5 losses by just 1 score. As for the Bills, they are not as good as their 7-3 record. Buffalo has simply played a cupcake schedule to get to this point. The Bills 7 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice) and Redskins. Not a single one of those teams currently has a winning record and Tennessee (5-5) is the only one with more than 3 wins. Denver's offense isn't great, but it's looked a lot better without Joe Flacco in their Brandon Allen has played well and they don't need a great offense to win games, as they still have a top tier defense. With the limitations the Bills have on offense, I like the Broncos to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. Take Denver! |
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11-24-19 | Raiders -3 v. Jets | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Early Bird ATS HEAVY HITTER on Raiders -3 -110 Oakland is definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point favorite against the Jets. For whatever reason this Raiders team just doesn't get the respect they deserve. If the season ended today, Oakland would be in as the final Wild Card and a win here puts them tied with the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West. The Jets are simply getting too much love after a couple of wins against a couple of bad NFC East teams in the Giants and Redskins. New York wasn't a very talented team to start with and are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now. I think the fact Oakland didn't play well last week against Cincinnati is also playing into the number, but that was a bit of a misleading final as they outgained the Bengals by 140 yards. Jets are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 at home and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of November. Raiders aer 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Oakland! |
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11-24-19 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +4 -110 I like the value here with Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. I know Atlanta has looked better of late with back-to-back blowout wins on the road against the Saints and Panthers, but I think it has them overvalued here against a Bucs team that is going to keep fighting despite their struggles. Division games are often closer than expected and that's definitely been the case of late with these two teams. Each of the last 3 meetings in the series have been decided by 5 or fewer points. Atlanta has also not been good in this spot. Falcons are just 3-12 ATS last 15 at home off a win by 10 or more against a division rival, 4-14 ATS last 18 after two straight games allowing 14 or fewer points and 14-34 ATS last 48 at home off two straight covers. Take Tampa Bay! |
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11-24-19 | Mississippi State v. Coastal Carolina +6 | 81-56 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +6 -110 I like the value here with the Chanticleers as a decently priced dog against Mississippi State. I just feel Coastal Carolina will be the more motivated team here in the 3rd place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It certainly helps the game is being played on their home court. Coastal Carolina has one of the better coaches not many people know about in Cliff Ellis and his Chanticleers have shown they can compete with the big boys in this tournament. They knocked Utah 79-57 before losing a closely contested game 77-65 to Baylor. Mississippi State is coming off a crushing loss to No. 17 Villanova, where they gave the Wildcats all they could handle. For a team that only plays 7 guys, I just think they are poised to come out a little flat here. Take Coastal Carolina! |
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11-23-19 | Boise State -8.5 v. Utah State | 56-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State -8½ -110 Some might be hesitant to play this game because of the uncertainty with both starting quarterbacks. However, I feel there's value here with Boise State laying single digits. I just think the Broncos have the much better QB depth and there's a more likely chance that the Aggies star quarterback Jordan Love doesn't play. Thing is, even with Love I don't know that Utah State could keep this close. Boise State is one of the best Group of 5 teams out there and got a ton at stake in this one. A loss here would likely cost the Broncos the Mountain Division title and a spot in the MWC title game. I think you can really see the talent difference in this game by looking at how these two have performed against the 3 common opponents they have played. Boise State is outscoring these 3 teams by 3.7 ppg, while Utah is getting outscored by 15.6 ppg. Defense is where the Broncos were much better. They only gave up 21.3 ppg and 326.7 ypg against these 3 team, where Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 484.7 ypg. Broncos are 72-48 ATS (60%) ATS in their last 120 road games and are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 conference games and 8-0-1 ATS last 9 after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Take Boise State! |
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11-23-19 | Blazers v. Cavs OVER 223 | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Blazers/Cavs over 223 -110 Easy play on the OVER in Saturday's NBA slate that has the Cavaliers hosting the Blazers. Defense is not a strength of either of these teams. Cleveland is giving up 112.1 ppg and Portland is allowing 116.7 ppg. Both teams are in much worse form than that of late, as the Cavs are giving up 122.8 ppg in their last 5 and the Blazers are allowing 122.4 ppg in their last 5. Blazers are one of the best pick and roll teams in the league and the Cvs are one of the worst defending it. Portland should be able to exploit this in a big way, especially with Damian Lillard expected back in the lineup after missing the Blazers last game. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see both teams score into the 120s and this thing fly past the number. OVER is 10-3-1 in Portland's last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-3 in the Cavs last 16 off a loss by more than 10. Take the OVER! |
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11-23-19 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Situational ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Grizzlies +7½ -115 I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers on Saturday. No question LA is the better team, but this is all about motivation and rest. We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Grizzlies against a top tier team at home like the Lakers. Especially given that Memphis is playing this game on a full 3-days of rest. The same can't be said for the Lakers, who are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an up-and-down fast paced game against the Thunder last night that ended in a 130-127 win. Both LeBron and AD played 35+ minutes in that win. I could see the Lakers resting one or both of those guys or at least limiting their minutes. Lakers are also a mere 9-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as a mid-range favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Memphis! |
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11-23-19 | Red Wings +140 v. Devils | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Red Wings +140 Detroit is worth a shot here as a decently priced road dog against the Devils. I know the Red Wings have lost 4 straight, but all 4 losses have come by a mere 1-goal and the offense is producing with 3 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. New Jersey doesn't come in in great form. They have lost their last two getting outscored 9-2 in those two defeats. They scored just 1 goal in each defeat and have now scored 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 9. Take Detroit! |
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11-23-19 | Rangers v. Canadiens -200 | 6-5 | Loss | -200 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Big Favorite PLAY OF THE DAY on Canadiens -200 I got no problem laying the big juice with Montreal at home against the Rangers. We know we are going to get a big effort here from the Canadiens after losing their last 3 and this New York team is one they can exploit. Rangers have allowed a staggering 18 goals in their last 4 games. The most recent game for NY was a 4-1 loss at Ottawa and that's worth noting as the Rangers are a miserable 4-17 in their last 21 off a road loss by 3 or more and 0-12 when playing on the road after a loss by 2 or more. Take Montreal! |
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11-23-19 | Boise State v. Pacific +4 | 82-76 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacific +4 -109 I like the value here with Damon Stoudamire's Tigers getting points at home against the Broncos. Boise State comes in off a thrilling an emotional 72-68 OT win at home over BYU and I think it has the Broncos primed for a letdown on the road against a hungry and what looks to be an improved Pacific team. Keep in mind Boise State did not play well at all in their first road game, getting annihilated by Oregon 106-75 as a mere 10.5-point dog. Last time out the Tigers won won 64-60 at home against Coppin State, but failed to cover as a 13-point favorite. That's actually a positive here, as they are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and a mere 8-21-1 ATS last 30 vs a team that simply has a winning record. Take Pacific! |
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11-23-19 | Denver +7 v. Cal-Riverside | 49-73 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Denver +7 -109 Really like the value here with the Pioneers getting what I feel is a big number against UC-Riverside. I get Denver hasn't looked great in their first two road games, but that was against much better competition. The Anteaters aren't just a team they can keep it close against, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. UC-Riverside just isn't good enough on the offensive end to be laying this many points against a similarly skilled opponent. The Anteaters are only averaging 60.0 ppg and that's with a 76-point outburst in their last game against non-D1 foe Redlands. Coming off a win is also a good time to fade Riverside, as they are just 3-14 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-9 ATS last 10 after holding their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points (held Redlands to 44). Take Denver! |
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11-23-19 | Troy +14 v. UL-Lafayette | 3-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Troy +14 -110 This is just too good a price to pass up with the Trojans and that high-powered offense. Troy comes into this game averaging 39.0 ppg and 478 ypg. Numbers that are even better in Sun Belt play, as they are scoring 43.3 ppg and putting up 505.5 ypg against conference opponents this season. I get Lafayette has a really good offense of their own and have the better defense on paper, but all signs here point to a back and forth shootout. One that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Troy won outright. We know we are going to get a big effort from the Trojans, as they still need a win to get bowl eligible and next week's game at home against App State is far from a sure thing. As for the Ragin' Cajuns, they are comfortably sitting at 5-1 and 1-game up on Arkansas State for the top spot in the West Division. Which is basically a 2-game lead given they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss here is not the end of the world. They showed signs of being a bit complacent last week, as they only beat South Alabama by 10 as a 28-point favorite and were outgained by the Jaguars 467 to 391. Troy is off a 63-27 blowout win at Texas State and prior to that beat a good Georgia Southern team 49-28 at home as a 2.5-point dog. Trojans are 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after a win by 35 or more , 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 12-4-1 ATS last 17 conference games and 7-2 ATS last 9 in the month of November. Take Troy! |
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11-23-19 | Rider v. Columbia | 87-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Rider PK -109 The Broncs are worth a look here as a pick'em on the road against the Lions. I get Columbia's 1-4 start can be attributed to playing 4 of their first 5 on the road, but their lone win was a mere 12-point victory at home against Binghamton, who is one of the worst teams in the America East Conference. Rider's last two have come as dogs against a couple of decent teams in Arizona State and UMass. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are a strong 30-8 ATS in their last 38 after playing 2 straight as a dog. There's also a strong system in play favoring the Broncs. Underdogs that are an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games are 31-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Rider! |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse v. Louisville -9 | Top | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -9 -110 Easy play for me on the Cardinals laying single-digits at home against the Orange. I just think we are getting a great price with Louisville due the fact that Syracuse finally showed some life in last week's 49-6 win as a 10.5-point road dog at Duke. That would be great if the Blue Devils were playing well, but Duke is on a free fall. Blue Devils have been outgained now by 100+ yards in 3 straight and have lost the yardage battle in 6 straight. Even though they won by a whopping 43-points, Syracuse only outgained the Blue Devils by 116. The only other two teams the Orange have won the yardage battle against all season are Holy Cross and Liberty. This is a team that got outgained by 250 yards to Maryland and 243 a couple weeks ago against BC. Louisville has one of the best offenses people don't know about. They are averaging 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg. What's impressive is it's come against opponents who on average are allowing just 25.1 ppg and 377 ypg. They should score at will here and while the defense isn't great, I think they easily win by two touchdowns. Orange are 2-11 ATS last 13 off an upset win by 14 or more points and have lost in this spot by an average of 20 ppg. Take Louisville! |
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11-23-19 | Manhattan v. Elon +1.5 | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Elon +1½ -110 The Fighting Phoenix are definitely worth a look as a home dog against Manhattan on Saturday. Elon comes in having lost 3 straight, but all 3 were on the road against Power 5 teams. They didn't sniff a win in any of those games, but did cover the number in all 3 matchups. The Jaspers haven't looked like a team that many thought would contend for the MAAC title. They only won by 11 at home in their opener against Delaware State and last time out fell 57-70 at Samford, who is a middle of the pack team in the Southern Conference. Manhattan is also a team that relies a lot on turnovers, as they don't shoot the ball well (37.9% from the field on the season). That's a problem against the Fighting Phoenix, who rank inside the Top 20 in the country in offensive turnover rate, giving up the rock just 14.5% of their possessions. A really remarkable stat given their last 3 games were against Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. Take Elon! |
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11-23-19 | Nebraska -6 v. Maryland | 54-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Big Money ATS MONEYMAKER on Nebraska -6 -110 The Cornhuskers are worth a look here laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Terps. Nebraska is simply showing value here because of how disappointing a season they have had and the fact that they enter having lost 4 straight. As bad as it's been for the Cornhuskers, it's been even worse for the Terps. Maryland just can't catch a break with the injury bug. They just don't have enough healthy good players to be competitive. The evidence is in the numbers. Terps are getting outgained by 221.2 yards/game in Big Ten play. Nebraska in comparison is only getting outgained by 12.4 yards/game. There's also a big motivational edge here with Nebraska still having an outside shot at bowl game if they can win out, while the Terps have no shot at a bowl and are struggling to just keep games close. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cornhuskers won going away. Take Nebraska! |
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11-23-19 | Western Kentucky v. Southern Miss -3.5 | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss -3½ -110 I really like the value here with Southern Miss laying a short number at home against Western Kentucky. Not only do I think the Golden Eagles are the better team, they have a massive motivation edge in this one. Thanks to LA Tech having both their starting QB and top wide out suspended, Southern Miss has a legit shot at winning the West and playing in the C-USA championship Game. They do need the Bulldogs to lose at UAB, but they are still without those two suspended players and are a 7-point dog. However, the most important thing is winning this game, so we can expect a max effort. Western Kentucky is just 1-game back of first in the East, but trail both FAU and Marshall and lost both the head-to-head matchups against those two teams. They are already bowl eligible, so there's not much at stake. Not to mention they are poised for a letdown off that big upset win over Arkansas last time out. Take Southern Miss! |
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11-23-19 | South Alabama +10 v. Georgia State | 15-28 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +10 -109 The Jaguars are worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Panthers. South Alabama is just 1-9 overall and have lost 8 straight, but that has not deterred this team from playing hard down the stretch. Just last week they only lost by 10 at Lafayette, who is tied with Appalachian State for the best record in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars easily covered as a 28-point dog and are now 5-1 ATS last 6 games. As for Georgia State, I think the Panthers could be in for a bit of a letdown here off last week's blowout loss at home to Appalachian State. That was a massive game for Georgia State, as they were in a position to where if they won that game and won out, they would have won the East and would be headed to the Sun Belt title game. Now they are simply playing for pride with a big rivalry game on deck against Georgia Southern. Panthers are just 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and have failed to cover 6 straight in Weeks 10 thru Week 13. They are also 0-7-1 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 4-12-2 ATS last 16 conference games. Jaguars are 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Take South Alabama! |
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11-23-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -4 | 86-87 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4 -105 I really like the value here with Memphis laying a short number against the Rebels at home. I think we are getting value with the Tigers because of the recent suspension handed to star freshmen big man James Wiseman and the fact that they only beat Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite last time out. I just don't think that was a focused Memphis team in that recent victory over the Trojans. Which says a lot that they were still able to win by double-digits. Keep in mind the news of Wiseman's suspension came just hours before the game. I expect a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday. As for Ole Miss, they are 4-0, but that was to be expected given their cupcake schedule to start the season. Rebels 4 wins are against Arkansas State, Norfolk State, Western Michigan and Seattle. All teams they were favored by at least 18.5 points against. This is a massive step up in competition and it's their first true road game of the season. Take Memphis! |
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11-22-19 | Temple +10.5 v. USC | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109 I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11. Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle. I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest. Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple! |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 228 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Clippers under 228 -109 This number doesn't make any sense to me. I just don't see these two teams coming close to 230 points. Houston is a tired team. They will be playing their 5th game in 7 days. Playing their 4th game in 6 days they managed just 95 points and shot just 42% from the field on Wednesday at Denver. Now they face a Clippers team that I believe can be the best in the league when they want to be on the defensive side of the ball. I fully expect a max effort on that side of the ball from LA at home against Harden and Westbrook. They definitely got the guys to slow those two down. Houston's offense gets a lot of praise, but they better defensively than they get credit for. Clippers offense only scored 90 on 40% shooting against the Thunder on Monday and then had 107 (in OT) on 42% shooting against the Celtics. UNDER is 16-4 in the Rockets last 20 road games as a dog of 6 or less and 19-5 in their last 24 on the road after going under in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming OVER 50.5 | 7-17 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Colorado State/Wyoming over 50½ -109 I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Friday's Mountain West clash between Colorado State and Wyoming. I get the Cowboys aren't the most explosive offense and like to play slow, but it's hard to play slow against this horrible Rams defense that is giving up 38.6 ppg on the road and are allowing 228 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry away from home. Key here is Colorado State has a decent offense that can put up points. Rams are averaging 30.6 ppg and their strength is their passing attack, which is averaging 316 yards/game and 8.4 yards/attempt. Wyoming is a solid defensive team, but are built much more to stop the run. OVER is 31-7 (82%) since 1992 in games with a total of 49.5 to 56 when you have a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) off a conference loss and facing a team with a marginal losing record. |
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11-22-19 | Houston +8 v. Oregon | 66-78 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Houston +8 -109 No question the Ducks should be favored at home, but this is just too many points for the Cougars to be catching in this one. Houston is simply undervalued here after failing to cover their last two games, where they lost by 1 as a 11.5-point home favorite to BYU and only beat Rice by 9 as a 13-point favorite. Oregon on the other hand is overvalued after covering 3 straight. The Ducks are just 16-26 ATS last 42 at home against top tier teams that come in shooting 45% or better from the field while holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Cougars are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they won but didn't cover as a favorite and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Houston! |
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11-22-19 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat/Bulls under 216½ -105 The UNDER is worth a look here in Friday's NBA matchup between Chicago and Miami. This just feels like to big a number when you got a decent Heat defense that's facing a Bulls offense that is having a miserable time shooting well from the field. Chicago has shot 43% or worse in 4 straight games and will be facing a Heat defense that has only allowed a team to shoot better than 45% once all season. Miami has also slowed the pace considerably of late and we have seen the UNDER cash in 7 of their last 10 games. UNDER has cashed in each of the Bulls last two and they are off one of their best defensive showings of the season on Wednesday, as they held the Pistons to just 89 points on 34% shooting. UNDER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 27-11-1 in the Bulls last 39 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-22-19 | Devils v. Penguins -135 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Penguins -135 I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a small home favorite against the Devils. I know the Penguins are in a bit of a rut right now, having lost 6 of 9, but this New Jersey team is one they can get right against. Devils just can't score. NJ is averaging a mere 2.5 goals/game on the season and that drops down to a miserable 1.9 goals/game on the road. Penguins are 16-2 in their last 18 against bad offensive teams that are averaging 2.55 or fewer goals/game. They are also 21-3 in their last 24 at home when revening a loss of 1 goal. Take Pittsburgh! |
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11-22-19 | Towson v. Buffalo -5 | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -5 -109 Easy play here on the Bulls laying what I feel is a really short number against the Tigers. Both teams played and lost in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. Buffalo had the much better showing losing by just 11 to UConn, while Townson got annihilated by 22 against Xavier. Bulls only trailed by 6 with just over 2 minutes to play. Buffalo is considered by many the favorite to win the MAC this year, while Towson is a middle of the pack team in the Colonial. Even though the Bulls didn't cover as a 2.5-point dog against the Huskies, they are still 21-8-2 ATS last 31 on a neutral site. Towson is just 6-15 ATS last 23 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are also 6-15 ATS last 21 on the road after failing to cover and 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road when they come in having failed to cover 2 of 3. Take Buffalo! |
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11-22-19 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Eastern Michigan | 45-62 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Maryland-Baltimore County PK -110 I like the value here with UMBC this afternoon in opening round action in the Jamaica Classic. The Retrievers will forever be remembered as the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and UMBC has the looks of a team that could get back to the big dance by winning the America East this year. Whether or not that happens, I really like them to take down Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have started out 4-0, but three of their games were so lopsided they didn't even have lines. They did upset North Texas on the road as a 9-point dog, but that Mean Green team is picked to finish near the bottom of the AAC this year. Prior to covering against North Texas, Eastern Michigan was working on a 1-9 ATS run in non-conference games. Retrievers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on a neutral site and 8-1 ATS last 9 in tournament games. Take UMBC! |
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11-22-19 | Cleveland State +7 v. NC-Wilmington | 47-46 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland State +7 -105 I'll take the points with the Vikings in this matchup of two small conference bottom feeders. Cleveland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Horizon, while UNC-Wilmington is picked to finish near the basement of the Colonial. The value with the Vikings in this one stems from their 1-4 start to the season, but it's really not that surprising to see Cleveland State sitting where they are. The schedule has been brutal, as their 4 losses are road games against Minnesota, Missouri State and South Carolina and a home loss to a really good FIU team. Not only should facing a similarly skilled opponent help the Vikings, but they are a team that likes to play fast. That's evident by their 11-3 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons in games against up-tempo teams that average 62+ shots/game. Seahawks are just 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat NC Wesleyan 113-53 last time out). Take Cleveland State! |
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11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA - TNT PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns -3½ -110 Love the value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. I get New Orleans has won two straight, but let's not get carried away. Those two wins were both at home against a couple of struggling teams in the Warriors and Blazers. New Orleans is still just 5-9 overall and are 1-5 on the road, where they are giving up a ridiculous 120.8 ppg. Phoenix has lost 3 of 4 and will be without their two big free agent pickups in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes, but they still got more than enough talent to beat the Pelicans by 4 at home. Keep in mind that two of their 3 losses in their last 4 were home games against two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and Celtics. The other a mere 4-point loss against a red-hot Sacramento team. Take Phoenix! |
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11-21-19 | California +20.5 v. Duke | 52-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on California +20½ -110 I really like the value here with Cal as a massive road dog against Duke in the opening round of Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. You just know that with how much the public loves to back the Blue Devils the line is inflated. After covering their first 3, Duke was a 28.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State and wound up only winning by 11. I'm not saying the Golden Bears got a shot at pulling off the upset, but I fully expect them to make a game of it. Blue Devils are a team that loves to get out in transition, while Cal is a team that wants to make you play in the halfcourt. I think they can keep Duke from running and really force them to work offensively, which should allow them to keep it close. Golden Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off 3 or more straight home wins, while Duke is just 2-11 ATS last 13 vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Cal! |
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11-21-19 | Canucks +155 v. Predators | 6-3 | Win | 155 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Canucks +155 Big time value here with Vancouver as a big road dog against the Predators. I know the Canucks come in having lost 3 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but it's not like Nashville is playing well. The Predators have lost 5 in a road and are also just 1-7 in their last 8 games. Nashville has just not been able to get their offense going of late. They have scored a mere 7 goals in their last 4 games combined. That's not a team that should be a big favorite against anyone. Predators have also lost 9 of their last 13 games in the 1st half of the season against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) like the Canucks. Take Vancouver! |
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11-21-19 | Penguins +125 v. Islanders | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Penguins +125 I think the Penguins are showing some decent value here as a road dog against the Islanders. These two teams just played on Tuesday at Pittsburgh. New York squeaked out a 5-4 win. It's extremely difficult to win back-to-back games against the same team in such a short period of time, as the team that lost almost always shows up with more energy playing with revenge. Penguins are 31-13 on the money line when revenging a loss of 1 goal and are also 41-18 in their last 59 after giving up 5 or more goals in their previous game. Take Pittsburgh! |
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11-21-19 | Xavier v. Towson +9.5 | 73-51 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Towson +9½ -109 I really like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit dog against the Musketeers. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and to no surprise as a lot of people are expecting a big bounce back season after last year struggles. However, the books were well aware the public was going to be on the Musketeers and have overpriced them. Xavier has failed to cover in all 4 wins and I expect that trend to continue tonight. This Towson team is also no joke. The Tigers only lost by 6 last time out as a 18-point road dog against a really talented Florida team. With that cover they are now 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Towson! |
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11-21-19 | North Florida v. Iowa -14.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa -14½ -113 I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in a win and cover at home against North Florida. I was impressed with how Iowa bounced back from that ugly home loss to DePaul with a win and cover against Oral Roberts. The Ospreys have won 4 straight, but it's come against some bad competition. The only real quality opponent they have faced is Florida on the road and they lost by 15. Keep in mind the Gators really haven't looked good early on, so it's not really asking much for Iowa to win by that same amount. Hawkeyes are a solid 31-17 in their last 48 at home vs a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games and 8-0 ATS at home vs teams like North Florida that like to play at a fast pace an average 62+ shots/game. Take Iowa! |
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11-21-19 | Loyola Marymount +3.5 v. Air Force | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Loyola Marymount +3½ -110 I'm confident the Lions will cash in a cover here as a small dog against Air Force, as these two face off in the opening round of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. The Falcons come in off a close loss at TCU, where they were right there with a chance to win late and easily covered as a 16-point dog. It was Air Force's third straight cover and I think it has them getting a little too much love in this spot. The Falcons just played that game at TCU on Monday and have not played at home since Nov. 9th. Loyola is going to be the much fresher team in this one. They have been at home since Nov. 9th and haven't played since Saturday. Air Force is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 on the road after covering 3 of their last 4 and a mere 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road off a cover in a straight up loss as a dog. Lions are 21-10 ATS last 31 in non-conference road games. Take Loyola-Marymount! |
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11-20-19 | BYU v. Boise State +1 | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105 I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win. Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State! |
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11-20-19 | Rockets +2 v. Nuggets | 95-105 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Rockets +2 -109 I get this isn't the best scheduling spot for Houston, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, but I just think the books have factored that into the number and the value is with the Rockets as an underdog. Houston comes in having won and covered 8 in a row. The concerns of how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could go exist can be thrown out the window. Harden has to be the MVP frontrunner right now, as he's averaging 39.2 ppg to go with 7.6 apg and 5.7 rpg. As for Westbrook, he's doing just fine at 21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg and 8.4 rpg. I just see no reason to back off this team with how they are playing right now. Denver is also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston! |
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11-20-19 | UC-Davis +4 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 51-61 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104 Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West. UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis! |
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11-20-19 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Capitals/Rangers under 6½ +120 The books have set the total too high here for this division matchup. Both the Capitals and Rangers are averaging just 2.7 goals/game in division games this season. It's also worth noting that these two played back on Oct. 18 at Washington, which the Capitals won 5-2. UNDER is 12-4 in the Rangers last 16 home games revenging a road loss of 2 or more. UNDER is 89-47 (65%) since 1996 when you have a team revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER! |
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11-20-19 | Magic +4 v. Raptors | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Raptors/Magic ATS WINNER on Magic +4 -115 I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! |
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11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 208 | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Raptors/Magic TOTAL WINNER on Magic/Raptors under 208 -115 I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! |
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11-20-19 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Weekday Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Akron/Miami-OH under 45 -110 I love the value here with the UNDER 45 in Wednesday's MAC matchup between Miami (OH) and Akron. This has an ugly low-scoring affair written all over it. The Zips are one of the worst teams in college football and are as bad offensively as a team can be in today's game. Akron comes in averaging 10.6 ppg on the season and a mere 7.8 ppg in MAC play. Miami is only giving up 16.0 ppg at home and will be extra motivated to play with this being their final home game and senior night. The big concern here would be the RedHawks covering this total on their own, but with the MAC East already locked up, I think we could see Miami go a little more vanilla on offense, especially in the 2nd half. There biggest thing is to stay fresh and as healthy as possible over the final two regular-season games. UNDER is 24-11 in Miami's last 35 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 25% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 vs horrible offensive teams that are averaging 17 or fewer points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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11-20-19 | Siena +5.5 v. Yale | 89-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110 The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog. Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%. Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena! |
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11-19-19 | Suns +3 v. Kings | 116-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Suns +3 -109 I actually think we are getting some decent value here with Phoenix due to the Suns playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and having just got annihilated by the Celtics last night 99-85 at home. Thing is, Phoenix had 3 days off before playing Boston, so the back-to-back isn't a as big a deal. Suns are also a team that has been very profitable in this spot, going 9-4 ATS last 13 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, covering by almost 11 points/game. These two already played once this season and the Suns won 124-95. Phoenix did as they pleased, shooting 50% from the field and racking up 31 assists. That result combined with the Kings off a 100-99 win at home over the Celtics adds even more value. Home teams revening a road loss of 20 or more and are coming off a home win by 3 or less are a mere 21-54 (28%) ATS since 1996. Take Phoenix! |
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11-19-19 | New Mexico +1 v. UTEP | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110 I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one. Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits. UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg. I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico! |
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11-19-19 | Fairfield +26 v. Maryland | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105 I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention. Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover. Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield! |
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11-19-19 | Senators v. Red Wings UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Senators/Red Wings under 6½ -120 No need to overthink this one. The books have simply missed the mark with tonight's high total between Ottawa and Detroit. Both of these teams are bad offensive teams. The Senators come in averaging 2.7 goals/game and the Red Wings are even worse at 2.3 goals/game. Both defenses are pretty solid. Ottawa is only giving up 3.3 goals/game and Detroit is allowing just 3.4 goals/game at home and just 2.8 goals/game over their last 5. Each of the Red Wings last two games have seen them fall in OT and the UNDER is 10-1 in Detroit's last 11 at home off 2 straight overtime losses. Take the UNDER! |
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11-19-19 | Senators +115 v. Red Wings | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Senators +115 I think we are getting a great price here on Ottawa as a road dog against the Red Wings. While the Senators come in off a loss at Buffalo, Ottawa hasn't dropped back-to-back games in nearly a month. As for Detroit, it's really been all downhill since they started out the season 3-1. Since that hot start, the Red Wings have gone a miserable 4-11. Underdogs off a division road loss in a game involving two bad teams that have won 30% to 40% of their games are 36-22 (62%) against the money line since 1996. Take Ottawa! |
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11-19-19 | Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110 I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl. Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play. The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio! |
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11-19-19 | Manhattan +5 v. Samford | 57-70 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105 I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting. Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position. More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions. Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan! |
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11-19-19 | College of Charleston v. Marshall | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104 Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg). Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home. Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%). Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston! |
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11-18-19 | Kings +160 v. Coyotes | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Kings +160 I love the value here with Los Angeles as a massive road dog against the Coyotes. Kings come into this one on a season-high 3-game winning streak and what I love is they have found ways to win during this streak even when they aren't playing their best. Arizona doesn't exactly have the best home ice edge either. The Coyotes are just 16-30 in their last 46 at home in the 1st half of the season and just 6-14 in their last 20 at home against a team with a losing record. Road dogs off a home division win and facing a team that won by 3 or more at home in their last game are a dominant 36-19 (66%) on the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-18-19 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 225 | 110-117 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Mavs under 225 -109 This just feels like way too many points for this matchup. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. I know the Spurs have played some high scoring games of late, but only one time in the Mavs last 6 games have they finished with a combined score of 225 or more. Spurs offense is averaging a respectable 112.4 ppg, but a lot of that is them playing a lot of bad defenses. San Antonio's opponents on the season are giving up 111.7 ppg, so they are just barely eclipsing what their opponents allow. Another thing to note is that in the last 30 meetings between these two teams, they have not had a game hit 225 points. UNDER is also 27-14 in Dallas' last 41 vs a poor defensive team that is allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or more. Take the UNDER! |
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11-18-19 | SIU-Edwardsville +15.5 v. South Dakota | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +15½ -109 Big time value here with the Cougars as a big road dog against the Coyotes. South Dakota State has started out 4-0 with a 3-1 ATS mark. I feel it has them laying way too big a number here against a SIU Edwardsville team that has shown they can compete against some good teams. This reminds me a lot of South Dakota's home game against Florida A&M, where they were being asked to lay 17.5 and ended up squeaking out a 3-point victory. Cougars are an experienced team with 4 starters back and added twins Lamar and Shamar Wright, who's dad, Lorenzo Wright, played in the NBA. Those two should only get better the more they get into the flow of things. Overall SIU is a very balanced team with 6 different guys averaging 7 or more ppg. Take SIU Edwardsville! |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Knicks over 208½ -109 I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's NBA matchup of Eastern Conference bottom feeders, as the Knicks will play host to the Cavs. A lot of time when you get two bad teams against one another, you don't see a whole lot of effort on the defensive side and that's what I'm expecting here. Cavs defense has been slipping of late, as they have allowed 50% shooting in each of their last two games and 47% or better in 5 of their last 7. Knicks are giving up 109.2 ppg. OVER is 5-2 in Cleveland's last 7 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-3 in their last 13 off a game where they didn't cover. Take the OVER! |
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11-18-19 | Middle Tennessee +3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110 No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb. I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years. The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee! |
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11-17-19 | Flames +140 v. Golden Knights | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Flames +140 I like the value here with Calgary as a decently priced road dog against the Golden Knights. I get the Flames come in having lost 3 straight, but they are still hands down the better team. Vegas has been a mess of late. The Knights have lost 5 straight and 7 of 8 overall. Revenge is a big factor here, as Vegas did win 6-2 at home in an earlier meeting back in October. Road dogs revenging a road loss, who have a marginal losing record (Winning percentage 40% -49%) are 18-7 (72%) over the last 5 seasons if the revenge comes in the 1st half of the season and the opponent enters with a losing record. Take Calgary! |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic UNDER 223 | 121-125 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Magic under 223 -109 UNDER is worth a look here in Sunday's NBA matchup between Orlando and Washington. The Magic are just an ideal UNDER team, as they rank dead last in the league in pace of play (99.7). They are 28th in offensive efficiency (100.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.0). UNDER is 8-3-1 in Orlando's last 12 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs a bad team like the Wizards that has won less than 40% of their games. UNDER is 29-7 (81%) with a total of 220 to 229.5 when you have a road team off a win that's won between 25% to 40% of their games and facing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-19 | Wake Forest v. Charlotte +4 | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110 I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play. They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63. Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte! |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 45 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Eagles under 45 -101 I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Super Bowl rematch from two years ago, as the Eagles host the Patriots. I just think this is going to be a defensive struggle. I know New England's defense didn't look great in their last game against the Ravens. Some will say that's because they finally played a legit quarterback. Part of that is true. Lamar Jackson is an absolute nightmare to defend. He's the one guy that can still beat a defense even when they do everything right. Not to take anything away from Carson Wentz, but he just doesn't pose the same threat. Add in how motivated New England is going to be coming off that poor showing and that they have had two weeks to prepare off their bye, I expect them to return to that elite form we saw in their first 8 games. As for the Patriots offense, I think some of the struggles we saw against the Ravens could linger on, especially on the road against a talented defense like the Eagles, which feels like it's getting better as the season progresses. Under is 16-5 in New England's last 21 road games when listed as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Eagles are also off a bye and the UNDER is 23-10 in their last 33 off a bye. It's also 9-2 in their last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-19 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105 Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home. Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record. 76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland! |
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11-17-19 | UCF v. Illinois State -1.5 | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110 I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16. The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season. Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State! |
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11-17-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120 Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! |
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11-17-19 | Jets v. Redskins UNDER 38.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -102 | 42 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Over/Under Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Jets/Redskins under 38½ -102 Don't be scared away of the low total here. In fact, I think we are getting some decent value here with the UNDER at this price. The Jets 34-point outburst last week was simply a result of playing an awful Giants defense. The Redskins might be a bad team, but the defense has been more than respectable, especially given how much they are on the field. Washington's defense should also have one of it's better performances coming off of their bye and playing at home. Prior to going off against the other New York team, the Jets had topped 20 points just once in their first 8 games. Speaking of offenses that can't score. The Redskins have gone 7 straight games with 17 or fewer points and have failed to top 10 points in 5 of those games. It's not going to get any better with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. He's just not ready, but at this point Washington really has nothing to lose throwing him out there. UNDER is 13-3 in the Redskins last 16 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs bad teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Jets last 28 on the road in the 2nd half vs team that allow 350+ yards/game. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-19 | Marquette v. Wisconsin -1 | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105 The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue. Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them. Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin! |
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11-16-19 | Red Wings v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NHL - Red Wings/ Sharks TOTAL WINNER on Red Wings/Sharks over 6½ +100 I look for the Red Wings and Sharks to easily surpass the 6.5 total set by the books on Saturday. San Jose comes into this one on fire offensively. The Sharks have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 5, twice putting up 6 goals. While the Red Wings aren't quite scoring at that clip, they are averaging over 3 goals per game in their last 4 and if they can get to 3 this thing easily reaches 7. OVER is 16-6 in the Sharks last 22 off a division road win, 16-7 in their last 23 when they come in having won 3 or more in a row and 15-5 in their last 20 off a win by 2 or more. Take the OVER! |
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11-16-19 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 60 | 9-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Late Night Total BLOWOUT on New Mexico/Boise State under 60 -110 I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Saturday's MWC game between Boise State and New Mexico. The Lobos are a team that likes to try and run the ball and control the close. They come in averaging 200 yards/game 5 yards/carry on the ground. The problem is they struggle to score. New Mexico is only averaging 18.6 ppg in MWC play and 13.0 ppg on the road. Not a big surprise then that the UNDER is 4-1 in their 5 road games and 4-1 in their 5 conference games. Boise State's offense only put up 20 last week at home against a Wyoming team that likes to play ball control and just 25 a few weeks ago against BYU. Unless the Broncos put up 50 here, I don't see anyway this thing climbs past the number set by the books. UNDER is 16-4 in Boise State's last 20 as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 228 | 121-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Blazers/Spurs TOTAL WINNER on Blazers/Spurs under 228 -109 I just think the total here has been set way too high for this one. Portland was playing with some decent pace early on, but all the injuries have forced the Blazers to slow things down. Their pace of play rating was a respectable 105.1 in their first 8 games and is just 99.4 over their last 4. It's important to note the dip has come against teams that look to push the pace, which is a good sign the slow play will continue. Spurs defense hasn't been great, but their biggest weakness has been protecting the paint. Portland isn't really a team to take advantage of that, as they are 25th in the league in number of attempts per game within the restricted area. Look for this to stay well below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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11-16-19 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 6.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
3* BEST BET on Blackhawks/Predators over 6½ -105 I look for Chicago and Nashville to easy eclipse the total of 6.5 in Saturday's NHL action. These are two offenses that can light up the scoreboard. The Blackhawks have scored 5 goals in 2 straight and 3 of their last 5 overall. They almost have to because their defense isn't great. Chicago has allowed 3 or more in 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Nashville should be able to take advantage of that soft defense, as they have scored 14 goals in their last 4 games and have seen a combined score of 7 or more in 3 of their last 4. OVER is 15-5 in Chicago's last 20 off a road game where both teams scored 3 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 after scoring 4 or more in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma -10 v. Baylor | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110 There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco. Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears. The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board. Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma! |