|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-01-19||Rhode Island v. West Virginia -9||Top||81-86||Loss||-110||4 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110
I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years.
Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.
Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia!
|11-30-19||Green Bay +6 v. Montana State||98-72||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115
I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-30-19||Denver +1 v. SE Missouri State||51-66||Loss||-104||6 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104
I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point.
SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver!
|11-30-19||East Carolina v. James Madison -1.5||89-99||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109
The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game.
ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome.
ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison!
|11-30-19||NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown||65-61||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115
UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas.
One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%.
Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro!
|11-29-19||Iowa v. San Diego State -2||73-83||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104
I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season.
As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State!
|11-29-19||SIU-Edwardsville +12.5 v. Cal-Riverside||51-69||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110
SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number.
The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville!
|11-29-19||Michigan v. Gonzaga -3||82-64||Loss||-109||3 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Gonzaga -3 -109
I just really like this Gonzaga team and feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Bulldogs. Michigan has impressed early on and are off that big upset over No. 6 UNC on Thanksgiving Day.
Not to take anything away from the Wolverines, but they simply couldn't miss. Michigan shot 50% from the field and 42% from deep. It's hard to stack those kinds of games on top of each other, especially against elite competition.
Gonzaga is every bit as good as they have been in the past few years and I think it says a lot about this team being able to beat a really good Oregon team, despite an off night shooting. Bulldogs hit just 39% from the field and 32% from deep.
Wolverines are just 1-8 last 9 times they come into a game having covered 4 of their last 5. Underdogs in November who are shooting 52% or better from the field are also a mere 16-41 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Gonzaga!
|11-28-19||UCF +2.5 v. Pennsylvania||67-68||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCF +2½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the Knights in their opening round matchup against Penn in the Wooden Legacy out in Anaheim. UCF has started out 3-1 with their only loss coming to Miami. They responded to that setback with two impressive wins over Illinois State and Charleston.
Penn comes in off a big upset win over Providence, but the Quakers have also lost to the likes of Rice and Lafayette by double-digits as favorites. Big thing for me is I don't think Penn will have much left in the tank for this tournament. Quakers have played 4 of their first 5 on the road.
Knights are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 away from home in the month of November and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Quakers just 1-4 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. Take UCF!
|11-28-19||Davidson +3.5 v. Marquette||Top||63-73||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Davidson +3½ -109
I love the value here with Davidson as a small dog against Marquette, as I think the Wildcats win this game outright. I know Davidson is just 2-3, but the schedule hasn't been easy. Marquette has a special player in Markus Howard, but I just like the overall talent with this Golden Eagles team.
While this will be on a neutral site, Marquette did not fair well in their only other game away from home this season, losing by 16 as a mere 2-point dog to Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles let the Badgers connect on 11 3-pointers in that loss and Davidson is a team that can light it up from deep. Wildcats come in shooting 39% from deep and are averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.
Marquette is just 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Davidson!
|11-27-19||Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5||69-71||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -1½ -110
This one is pretty simple. When Dana Altman's Ducks are matched up against a ranked team, you back Oregon. The Ducks are a dominant 18-2-1 ATS since 2015 against ranked opponents.
As good as Seton Hall has looked early on, I would argue that Oregon has looked even better. While Seton Hall has that close call at home against Michigan State, that's really the only tough matchup they have had. Ducks have beat the likes of Boise State, Memphis and Houston and the closest any team has got to beating them is 8-points.
Ducks are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral site and a perfect 7-0 ATS when they come in having covered 4 or more in a row. Take Oregon!
|11-27-19||Niagara +9.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||54-77||Loss||-109||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Niagara +9½ -109
The Purple Eagles are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Jaguars. Niagara is way undervalued here due to the fact that they have started out 0-4. Thing is 3 of those were true road games against better teams and they were also a dog in their lone home loss.
IUPU-Ft Wayne is 3-5 and have two wins against non-D1 schools and the other was against an awful Stetson team. The Jaguars have no business laying double-digits in this game. They are just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record, while the Purple Eagles 12-3 ATS last 15 after 2 or more straight losses. Take Niagara!
|11-27-19||St. Louis +3 v. Boston College||Top||64-54||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109
Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall.
These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul.
Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates.
Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis!
|11-26-19||Dayton -1 v. Virginia Tech||89-62||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from.
That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS.
One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton!
|11-26-19||Richmond v. Auburn -8||65-79||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109
Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch.
Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes).
Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn!
|11-26-19||Wisconsin -5 v. New Mexico||50-59||Loss||-109||6 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -5 -109
We are getting a great price here with the Badgers coming off yesterday's upset loss to Richmond. Wisconsin's defense did their part holding the Spiders to 62 points, but the offense just couldn't buy a basket, as they shot just 17-50 (34%) and were 7-27 (26%) from deep.
While the Badgers offense is not going to be an offensive juggernaut, I would expect them to shoot the ball a lot better today. One big reason for that is they should get some nice looks off turnovers. New Mexico coughed up the rock 24 times in yesterday's 25-point loss to Auburn.
With that loss the Lobos fell to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. New Mexico is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs a good defensive team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Wisconsin!
|11-26-19||Murray State -8 v. Weber State||Top||69-68||Loss||-110||3 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110
Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57.
The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego.
I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State!
|11-26-19||Tenn-Martin +6 v. Gardner-Webb||64-81||Loss||-110||2 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +6 -110
I like the value here with the Skyhawks as a decently priced dog in Tuesday's opening round matchup in the Cancun Challenge. There's no reason for Gardner Webb to be laying this kind of number here. The Runnin' Bulldogs have started out 0-5 and while a lot of those have come on the road against Power 5 teams, they also lost at home to Furman.
Another thing here is Gardner Webb has to be running on fumes, as they have played 4 straight on the road before making the trip to Cancun for this tournament. The most recent coming Friday at South Carolina. While Tenn-Martin has also played their last 3 on the road, they have been off since last Tuesday.
Skyhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs a team that's been outscored by 4+ points/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Tenn-Martin!
|11-25-19||Northwestern v. Bradley -2||78-51||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bradley -2 -104
The Braves are definitely worth a look here as a small favorite against the Wildcats. Bradley has won 4 straight since an opening night loss at St Joseph's, who has looked pretty good early on. These two have played 2 common opponents, Northwestern is just 1-1 with 0.0 scoring margin, while the Braves are 2-0 with a +10.5 ppg scoring margin.
This is going to be a long season for the Wildcats, who lost their top 3 scores from a team that won just 13 games (4-16 Big Ten) and finished a pathetic 316th in scoring at 65.9 ppg. This is a very young team and will be going on the road for the first time after playing 4 straight at home.
Bradley on the other hand has a lot coming back from a team that caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and wound up making the NCAA Tournament by winning the MVC Conference title. Braves will bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Bradley!
|11-25-19||CS-Northridge v. Green Bay -7.5||84-85||Loss||-109||9 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Green Bay -7½ -109
Easy play here with the Phoenix laying single digits against the Matadors. CS-Northridge has started out 0-6 with all 6 losses coming by double-digits. They have shown absolutely no ability to be competitive and it's resulted in a 1-5 ATS mark during their awful start.
I expect it to continue here. Wisconsin-GB is just 1-3, but their 3 losses have all come on the road against quality teams in Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They not only are the better team, but have a big edge here in rest, as CS-Northridge just played yesterday against Colgate, while the Phoenix are playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 13th.
Struggling early is nothing new for the Matadors, as they are 22-47-3 ATS last 72 non-conference games. Phoenix on the other hand are a dominant 12-4 ATS last 16 off a loss and have covered 5 of 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-25-19||Loyola Maryland -2 v. IUPU-Indianapolis||81-77||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola Maryland -2 -109
The Greyhounds are worth a look here a small favorite against IUPUI in the first round of the Cayman Islands Mainland. Loyola-MD has covered 3 straight and are fresh off a mere 4-point loss at George Mason as a 8-point dog. They are just 2-3 overall, but have played 4 of 5 on the road.
IUPUI has a big upset win at USF, but that's it. They also followed up that win over the Bulls with a 23-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. The Jaguars are just 1-3 ATS on the season. In the loss to the Ramblers they gave up 85 points and that's worth noting, as they are 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons after allowing 85 or more.
Greyhounds are 19-7 ATS last 26 on the road after covering a game on the road where they lost outright. IUPUI is also a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been matched up against a team with a losing record. Take Loyola-MD!
|11-24-19||Hofstra -2 v. CS-Fullerton||79-57||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Hofstra -2 -109
I got no problem laying a short number here with the Pride at CS-Fullerton. Hofstra just went on the road an upset UCLA 88-78 as a 14.5-point dog on Thursday. That's a big time momentum boost for this team. It definitely makes the quick turnaround on the road a lot easier.
I also think they could catch Fullerton a bit flat here. The Titans only game in the last 11 days is a home game against Stanislaus State. Their last game against a Div. 1 opponent was back on Nov. 13th. Not to mention this is a team that's picked to finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference.
Pride are 21-7 ATS last 28 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 12-4 ATS last 16 non-conference games. Fullerton is just 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a road game. Take Hofstra!
|11-24-19||Middle Tennessee v. Ohio -1.5||63-75||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -1½ -109
Definitely worth a look here on Ohio as a small home favorite. The Bobcats come in having lost 3 straight, but those 3 defeats have come against Villanova, Baylor and Utah. Prior to that they had won their first 3 games, which included upset road wins over St Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog and Iona as a 4.5-point dog.
Ohio has shot the ball well at 45.3% and are averaging 9 made 3-pointers. Blue Raiders have really struggled with strong offense teams that can shoot from deep. Middle Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS last 15 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 3-12 ATS last 15 vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field.
Blue Raiders are just 9-18 ATS last 27 as a dog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Ohio!
|11-24-19||Air Force v. Indiana State -2||74-84||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Indiana State -2 -109
I like the value here with the Sycamores as a small favorite against the Falcons. Air Force comes in having lost 3 straight and have simply not shot shot the ball well. During the losing streak they have hit 42% or worse from the field in each game. They are also getting ominated on the board and losing the turnover battle.
Indiana State is just 1-4, but they got their first win last time out against Loyola-Marymount, winning 72-60 as a slim the 3-point favorite. That's the same Loyola team that just a day earlier beat Air Force by 14. Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the Sycamores are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a team from the MWC. Take Indiana State!
|11-24-19||Mississippi State v. Coastal Carolina +6||81-56||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +6 -110
I like the value here with the Chanticleers as a decently priced dog against Mississippi State. I just feel Coastal Carolina will be the more motivated team here in the 3rd place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It certainly helps the game is being played on their home court.
Coastal Carolina has one of the better coaches not many people know about in Cliff Ellis and his Chanticleers have shown they can compete with the big boys in this tournament. They knocked Utah 79-57 before losing a closely contested game 77-65 to Baylor.
Mississippi State is coming off a crushing loss to No. 17 Villanova, where they gave the Wildcats all they could handle. For a team that only plays 7 guys, I just think they are poised to come out a little flat here. Take Coastal Carolina!
|11-23-19||Boise State v. Pacific +4||82-76||Loss||-109||8 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacific +4 -109
I like the value here with Damon Stoudamire's Tigers getting points at home against the Broncos. Boise State comes in off a thrilling an emotional 72-68 OT win at home over BYU and I think it has the Broncos primed for a letdown on the road against a hungry and what looks to be an improved Pacific team.
Keep in mind Boise State did not play well at all in their first road game, getting annihilated by Oregon 106-75 as a mere 10.5-point dog. Last time out the Tigers won won 64-60 at home against Coppin State, but failed to cover as a 13-point favorite. That's actually a positive here, as they are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite.
Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and a mere 8-21-1 ATS last 30 vs a team that simply has a winning record. Take Pacific!
|11-23-19||Denver +7 v. Cal-Riverside||49-73||Loss||-109||7 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Denver +7 -109
Really like the value here with the Pioneers getting what I feel is a big number against UC-Riverside. I get Denver hasn't looked great in their first two road games, but that was against much better competition. The Anteaters aren't just a team they can keep it close against, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
UC-Riverside just isn't good enough on the offensive end to be laying this many points against a similarly skilled opponent. The Anteaters are only averaging 60.0 ppg and that's with a 76-point outburst in their last game against non-D1 foe Redlands.
Coming off a win is also a good time to fade Riverside, as they are just 3-14 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-9 ATS last 10 after holding their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points (held Redlands to 44). Take Denver!
|11-23-19||Rider v. Columbia||87-63||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Rider PK -109
The Broncs are worth a look here as a pick'em on the road against the Lions. I get Columbia's 1-4 start can be attributed to playing 4 of their first 5 on the road, but their lone win was a mere 12-point victory at home against Binghamton, who is one of the worst teams in the America East Conference.
Rider's last two have come as dogs against a couple of decent teams in Arizona State and UMass. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are a strong 30-8 ATS in their last 38 after playing 2 straight as a dog.
There's also a strong system in play favoring the Broncs. Underdogs that are an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games are 31-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Rider!
|11-23-19||Manhattan v. Elon +1.5||69-64||Loss||-110||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Elon +1½ -110
The Fighting Phoenix are definitely worth a look as a home dog against Manhattan on Saturday. Elon comes in having lost 3 straight, but all 3 were on the road against Power 5 teams. They didn't sniff a win in any of those games, but did cover the number in all 3 matchups.
The Jaspers haven't looked like a team that many thought would contend for the MAAC title. They only won by 11 at home in their opener against Delaware State and last time out fell 57-70 at Samford, who is a middle of the pack team in the Southern Conference.
Manhattan is also a team that relies a lot on turnovers, as they don't shoot the ball well (37.9% from the field on the season). That's a problem against the Fighting Phoenix, who rank inside the Top 20 in the country in offensive turnover rate, giving up the rock just 14.5% of their possessions. A really remarkable stat given their last 3 games were against Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. Take Elon!
|11-23-19||Ole Miss v. Memphis -4||86-87||Loss||-105||2 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4 -105
I really like the value here with Memphis laying a short number against the Rebels at home. I think we are getting value with the Tigers because of the recent suspension handed to star freshmen big man James Wiseman and the fact that they only beat Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite last time out.
I just don't think that was a focused Memphis team in that recent victory over the Trojans. Which says a lot that they were still able to win by double-digits. Keep in mind the news of Wiseman's suspension came just hours before the game. I expect a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday.
As for Ole Miss, they are 4-0, but that was to be expected given their cupcake schedule to start the season. Rebels 4 wins are against Arkansas State, Norfolk State, Western Michigan and Seattle. All teams they were favored by at least 18.5 points against. This is a massive step up in competition and it's their first true road game of the season. Take Memphis!
|11-22-19||Temple +10.5 v. USC||Top||70-61||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109
I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11.
Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle.
I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest.
Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple!
|11-22-19||Houston +8 v. Oregon||66-78||Loss||-109||11 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Houston +8 -109
No question the Ducks should be favored at home, but this is just too many points for the Cougars to be catching in this one. Houston is simply undervalued here after failing to cover their last two games, where they lost by 1 as a 11.5-point home favorite to BYU and only beat Rice by 9 as a 13-point favorite.
Oregon on the other hand is overvalued after covering 3 straight. The Ducks are just 16-26 ATS last 42 at home against top tier teams that come in shooting 45% or better from the field while holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field.
Cougars are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they won but didn't cover as a favorite and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Houston!
|11-22-19||Towson v. Buffalo -5||73-76||Loss||-109||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -5 -109
Easy play here on the Bulls laying what I feel is a really short number against the Tigers. Both teams played and lost in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. Buffalo had the much better showing losing by just 11 to UConn, while Townson got annihilated by 22 against Xavier. Bulls only trailed by 6 with just over 2 minutes to play.
Buffalo is considered by many the favorite to win the MAC this year, while Towson is a middle of the pack team in the Colonial. Even though the Bulls didn't cover as a 2.5-point dog against the Huskies, they are still 21-8-2 ATS last 31 on a neutral site.
Towson is just 6-15 ATS last 23 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are also 6-15 ATS last 21 on the road after failing to cover and 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road when they come in having failed to cover 2 of 3. Take Buffalo!
|11-22-19||Maryland-Baltimore County v. Eastern Michigan||45-62||Loss||-110||4 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Maryland-Baltimore County PK -110
I like the value here with UMBC this afternoon in opening round action in the Jamaica Classic. The Retrievers will forever be remembered as the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and UMBC has the looks of a team that could get back to the big dance by winning the America East this year.
Whether or not that happens, I really like them to take down Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have started out 4-0, but three of their games were so lopsided they didn't even have lines. They did upset North Texas on the road as a 9-point dog, but that Mean Green team is picked to finish near the bottom of the AAC this year.
Prior to covering against North Texas, Eastern Michigan was working on a 1-9 ATS run in non-conference games. Retrievers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on a neutral site and 8-1 ATS last 9 in tournament games. Take UMBC!
|11-22-19||Cleveland State +7 v. NC-Wilmington||47-46||Win||100||2 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland State +7 -105
I'll take the points with the Vikings in this matchup of two small conference bottom feeders. Cleveland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Horizon, while UNC-Wilmington is picked to finish near the basement of the Colonial.
The value with the Vikings in this one stems from their 1-4 start to the season, but it's really not that surprising to see Cleveland State sitting where they are. The schedule has been brutal, as their 4 losses are road games against Minnesota, Missouri State and South Carolina and a home loss to a really good FIU team.
Not only should facing a similarly skilled opponent help the Vikings, but they are a team that likes to play fast. That's evident by their 11-3 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons in games against up-tempo teams that average 62+ shots/game. Seahawks are just 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat NC Wesleyan 113-53 last time out). Take Cleveland State!
|11-21-19||California +20.5 v. Duke||52-87||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on California +20½ -110
I really like the value here with Cal as a massive road dog against Duke in the opening round of Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. You just know that with how much the public loves to back the Blue Devils the line is inflated.
After covering their first 3, Duke was a 28.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State and wound up only winning by 11. I'm not saying the Golden Bears got a shot at pulling off the upset, but I fully expect them to make a game of it.
Blue Devils are a team that loves to get out in transition, while Cal is a team that wants to make you play in the halfcourt. I think they can keep Duke from running and really force them to work offensively, which should allow them to keep it close.
Golden Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off 3 or more straight home wins, while Duke is just 2-11 ATS last 13 vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Cal!
|11-21-19||Xavier v. Towson +9.5||73-51||Loss||-109||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Towson +9½ -109
I really like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit dog against the Musketeers. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and to no surprise as a lot of people are expecting a big bounce back season after last year struggles.
However, the books were well aware the public was going to be on the Musketeers and have overpriced them. Xavier has failed to cover in all 4 wins and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
This Towson team is also no joke. The Tigers only lost by 6 last time out as a 18-point road dog against a really talented Florida team. With that cover they are now 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Towson!
|11-21-19||North Florida v. Iowa -14.5||68-83||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa -14½ -113
I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in a win and cover at home against North Florida. I was impressed with how Iowa bounced back from that ugly home loss to DePaul with a win and cover against Oral Roberts.
The Ospreys have won 4 straight, but it's come against some bad competition. The only real quality opponent they have faced is Florida on the road and they lost by 15. Keep in mind the Gators really haven't looked good early on, so it's not really asking much for Iowa to win by that same amount.
Hawkeyes are a solid 31-17 in their last 48 at home vs a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games and 8-0 ATS at home vs teams like North Florida that like to play at a fast pace an average 62+ shots/game. Take Iowa!
|11-21-19||Loyola Marymount +3.5 v. Air Force||78-64||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Loyola Marymount +3½ -110
I'm confident the Lions will cash in a cover here as a small dog against Air Force, as these two face off in the opening round of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. The Falcons come in off a close loss at TCU, where they were right there with a chance to win late and easily covered as a 16-point dog. It was Air Force's third straight cover and I think it has them getting a little too much love in this spot.
The Falcons just played that game at TCU on Monday and have not played at home since Nov. 9th. Loyola is going to be the much fresher team in this one. They have been at home since Nov. 9th and haven't played since Saturday.
Air Force is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 on the road after covering 3 of their last 4 and a mere 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road off a cover in a straight up loss as a dog. Lions are 21-10 ATS last 31 in non-conference road games. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|11-20-19||BYU v. Boise State +1||68-72||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105
I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite.
Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win.
Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State!
|11-20-19||UC-Davis +4 v. CS Sacramento||Top||51-61||Loss||-104||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104
Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West.
UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis!
|11-20-19||Siena +5.5 v. Yale||89-100||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110
The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog.
Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%.
Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena!
|11-19-19||New Mexico +1 v. UTEP||63-66||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110
I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one.
Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg.
I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico!
|11-19-19||Fairfield +26 v. Maryland||55-74||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105
I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention.
Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover.
Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield!
|11-19-19||Manhattan +5 v. Samford||57-70||Loss||-105||9 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105
I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting.
Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position.
More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions.
Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan!
|11-19-19||College of Charleston v. Marshall||76-66||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104
Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg).
Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home.
Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%).
Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston!
|11-18-19||SIU-Edwardsville +15.5 v. South Dakota||56-71||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +15½ -109
Big time value here with the Cougars as a big road dog against the Coyotes. South Dakota State has started out 4-0 with a 3-1 ATS mark. I feel it has them laying way too big a number here against a SIU Edwardsville team that has shown they can compete against some good teams.
This reminds me a lot of South Dakota's home game against Florida A&M, where they were being asked to lay 17.5 and ended up squeaking out a 3-point victory.
Cougars are an experienced team with 4 starters back and added twins Lamar and Shamar Wright, who's dad, Lorenzo Wright, played in the NBA. Those two should only get better the more they get into the flow of things. Overall SIU is a very balanced team with 6 different guys averaging 7 or more ppg. Take SIU Edwardsville!
|11-18-19||Middle Tennessee +3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||72-93||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110
No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb.
I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years.
The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-17-19||Wake Forest v. Charlotte +4||65-67||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110
I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play.
They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63.
Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte!
|11-17-19||UCF v. Illinois State -1.5||67-65||Loss||-110||3 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16.
The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season.
Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State!
|11-17-19||Marquette v. Wisconsin -1||61-77||Win||100||2 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105
The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue.
Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them.
Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin!
|11-16-19||St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -7.5||80-74||Loss||-105||19 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Saturday Night CASH COW on Rutgers -7½ -105
The Scarlet Knights have started out 3-0 and I look for them to have no problem covering the number in Saturday's neutral site showdown with St. Bonaventure. Rutgers is a program on the rise and many fans are calling for their first winning season in over a decade.
The Bonnies are off to a 0-3 start having lost at home to Ohio and Vermont and most recently losing at Siena as a 1-point favorite. Offense has been a big problem for St. Bonaventure. They are averaging just 59.0 ppg and have yet to shoot better than 38% from the field in any game.
Now they must face a Rutgers defense that is only giving up 55.7 ppg, holding teams almost 15 points under their season average. St Bonaventure is 1-9 ATS last 10 games when facing a team that's holding teams under 42% shooting and the Scarlet Knights are 13-3 ATS last 16 away from home against teams who are averaging 64 or fewer points/game. Take Rutgers!
|11-16-19||Louisiana Tech +10 v. Creighton||Top||72-82||Push||0||17 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105
This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66.
As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|11-16-19||Eastern Michigan +9 v. North Texas||56-51||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Michigan/N Texas ATS WINNER on Eastern Michigan +9 -110
The Eagles are worth a look as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Mean Green. Eastern Michigan hasn't played the stiffest of competition over their 3-0 start, but they have dominated all 3 games and will be playing with a ton of confidence in this one.
North Texas is coming off two really tough road games, as they were at VCU last Friday (lost a heartbreaker 59-56) and at Arkansas on Tuesday (lost by 23). Both games the offense really struggled, as they shot just 40% against the Rams and 33% against the Razorbacks.
Mean Green are just 19-35 ATS last 54 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 18-36 last 54 in non-conference home games and 5-16 ATS last 21 at home off a loss by 20 or more. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-16-19||Austin Peay +9 v. Tulsa||65-72||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Austin Peay/Tulsa ATS WINNER on Austin Peay +9 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Governors against the Golden Hurricane. Austin Peay comes in off a 22-point loss at Western Kentucky, but that's a really good Hilltoppers team who lost just 1 starter from a 20-win team and is expected to win C-USA this year.
Tulsa has started out 2-1, but there two wins have come by single-digits against the likes of Houston Baptist and Oral Roberts. They also lost by 14 on the road to Texas Arlington. Golden Hurricanes have a history of exceeding expectations under Frank Haith, but I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Take Austin Peay!
|11-16-19||Belmont +1.5 v. Boston College||100-85||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Belmont/Boston College ATS WINNER on Belmont +1½ -110
The Bruins are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Eagles. Boston College is getting a lot of love here after starting out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, but I think they are going down on Saturday.
One key matchup here that I think really favors Belmont is big man Nick Muszynski going up against the Eagles Nic Popvic. Muszynski is averaging 17.5 ppg and 3 bpg. He's not only going to get his, but he should be able to contain Popvic, BC's second leading scorer.
Bruins were red-hot from 3 last time out, going 16 of 38 (42%) against Samford. Belmont is 15-4 ATS last 19 after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers. Bruins are also a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons. Eagles just 1-8 ATS last 9 at home off a home game. Take Belmont!
|11-16-19||Temple -4.5 v. La Salle||70-65||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Temple/LaSalle ATS WINNER on Temple -4½ -110
I like the Owls to cash in a win and cover over LaSalle in Saturday's Big Five matchup. Temple has had a whole week to prepare for this one, as they haven't played since last Saturday's 18-point win over Morgan State.
While Temple has had ample time to prepare for this rivalry matchup, the Explorers just played a Big 5 rival in Penn on Wednesday. That didn't go well, as they lost by 16 as a 8.5-point dog.
Not real concerned with home court edge in this one. These two schools are a mere 3-miles apart on Broad Street. Expect plenty of Owls' fans in attendance.
I also think turnovers will be a big factor here. Temple has forced 36 turnovers in their first two games, while LaSalle has coughed up the rock 34 times in their first two games. Take Temple!
|11-15-19||Cal-Irvine +3 v. Boise State||69-61||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal-Irvine +3 -110
The betting public can't get enough of the Broncos as a small home favorite against the Anteaters, but I really like Cal-Irvine to go into Boise and get a win, making them an easy play at this price.
Boise went just 13-20 overall and 7-11 (T-7th) in the MWC last year, but because they bring back their top four scorers and add in a couple of Pac-12 transfers, people are expecting a big turnaround. I'm not convinced that will be the case. It certainly didn't look to be in their last game, when they lost by 31 on the road to Oregon as a 10.5-point dog.
UC Irvine comes in averaging 82.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting, which is pretty remarkable when you factor they have shot a miserable 29% from behind the 3-point line. Good chance they get that going against a Broncos defense that is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.2% from deep against them on the season. The defense as a whole just isn't very good for the home team and it will cost them tonight. Take UC-Irvine!
|11-15-19||UC-Davis +5 v. Arkansas State||67-80||Loss||-110||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Davis +5 -110
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Red Wolves. I feel like we are getting a good price on UC-Davis in this one due to the fact that they have failed to cover each of their first two lined games. They also couldn't have played any worse than they did in their opener at Loyola when they got blasted 82-48 as a mere 13-point dog.
Arkansas State did manage to cover in their last game at home against VMI as a 7-point favorite, but the Keydets are 0-4, so that's nothing to get excited about. Red Wolves also shot a ridiculous 58% from the field, which is not the norm for this team. They only managed 43 points on 33% shooting the game before against Ole Miss.
Turnovers have been a problem for the Red Wolves. They are averaging 16 turnovers a game and will be facing a UC Davis defense that has forced an impressive 33 turnovers in their last 2 games. That's nothing new for the Aggies, as they have ranked in the top 40 nationally in defensive turnover rate the last two years. I'll take the points for insurance, but fully expect the Aggies to win outright. Take UC Davis!
|11-15-19||Alabama +1 v. Rhode Island||Top||79-93||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Alabama +1 -110
I love the Crimson Tide at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rams. Alabama bounced back in a big way from their heartbreaking 1-point loss to Penn in their opener with a dominating 78-59 win at home over FAU, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite.
Rhode Island failed to cover as a big favorite in their opener against Long Island and then were embarrassed on the road in a 73-55 loss as a 12-point dog to Maryland. Rams have not been able to get their offense going. They shot just 39% from the field against Long Island and then a mere 30% against the Terps.
Rhode Island has a solid trio of Langevine, Russell and Dowtin. Tide have guys that can give those three fits. Alabama's suffocating man-to-man defense travels well and will be too much for this struggling Rams offense to overcome. Take Alabama!
|11-15-19||South Alabama -4 v. Chattanooga||72-90||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama -4 -109
Easy play here on the Jaguars as a small road favorite against the Mocs. We just saw how talented this South Alabama team is in their last game, as they nearly pulled off a big upset at home against Auburn, losing 70-69 as a 7-point dog. Not a huge surprise, given the Jaguars are considered the team to beat in the Sun Belt this year.
Chattanooga on the other hand is picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. The Mocs did just win 74-68 at Troy as a small road dog, but the Trojans are considered by many as the worst team in the Sun Belt.
Jaguars are 11-3 ATS last 14 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Mocs are a mere 2-12 ATS last 14 home games vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|11-14-19||VMI v. Arkansas State -6||56-71||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas State -6 -109
The Red Wolves are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Keydets. Arkansas State is showing some value coming off an ugly 71-43 loss at Ole Miss and should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against VMI.
The Keydets have lost each of their first 3 games and are expected to be down this year. Most have VMI picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Southern Conference and a big reason for that is they lost the conference's leading scorer, Bubba Parham, who transferred to Georgia Tech.
Red Wolves are 72-48 (60%) last 120 off a loss by 10 or more, while the Keydets are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Arkansas State!
|11-13-19||Eastern Washington v. St. Louis -7.5||Top||60-82||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -7½ -109
The Billikens should have no problem putting away the Eagles by double-digits Wednesday night. St Louis lost a lot from last year's squad that won 23 games and I think it has them undervalued to start out the season. The Billikens did get back do it all guard Jordan Goodwin and forward Hasahn French.
St Louis opened with a 22-point win as a mere 7-point favorite against Florida Gulf Coast and followed that up with a 11-point win as a 9.5-point favorite against Valpo. Billikens are 30-13 ATS at home when they come in off 2 straight covers.
Eastern Washington is just 2-10 ATS last 12 non-conference games and just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take St Louis!
|11-13-19||Ohio +6 v. Iona||81-72||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Ohio +6 -110
Iona might be the favorite to win the MAAC, but I just think the Gaels are getting too much respect at home against an Ohio team that has turned some heads in their first two games. The Bobcats opened the season with a 12-point win at St. Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog. They followed that up with a 38-point win over Heidelberg.
Iona also played a team from the A-10 to open the season and they lost by 6 at LaSalle as a favorite. Note that LaSalle was picked to finish worse than the Bonnies in A-10 play. The Gaels shot just 30% from the field in that loss to the Explorers.
Iona is just 1-10 ATS last 10 non-conference games and are 3-11 ATS last 14 when coming off a loss. Take Ohio!
|11-12-19||Washington State +4 v. Santa Clara||62-70||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington State +4 -110
The books just don't want to give this Cougars team any love. Washington State was a mere 3-point favorite in their opener against Seattle and they went on to win that game 85-54. Now they are getting points against San Clara? No way I'm passing up on the Cougars at this price.
Washington State will have the best player on the floor in C.J. Elleby, who flirted with leaving for the NBA. Elleby was sensational in the opener with 27 points and 7 rebounds. Cougars have covered 12 of their last 17 non-conference games and I'm confident they cash a winning ticket tonight. Take Washington State!
|11-12-19||Oral Roberts +7.5 v. Tulsa||67-74||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oral Roberts +7½ -110
Really like the value with the Golden Eagles. This just isn't an in-state matchup, both schools are located in Tulsa, OKlahoma. Oral Roberts might be considered the lesser of the two in this fight, but I think the Eagles have the goods to win this game outright.
Oral Roberts has two studs in Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor, two more returning starters, and two grad transfers expected to play big roles. This team is all-in on winning the Summit and getting to the NCAA Tournament. Tulsa loses 3 key pieces from last year's team that went 18-14 and that team only beat the Golden Eagles by 10 (trailed by 5 at the half). Take Oral Roberts!
|11-12-19||Pacific +5.5 v. Hawaii||Top||67-72||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific +5½ -109
Easy play here for me with the Tigers as a decently priced road dog against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has been overvalued in each of their first two games, as they failed to cover as a 17.5-point favorite in a 65-52 win over Florida A&M and as a 1.5-point favorite in a 81-75 loss to South Dakota.
Just so happens that Pacific has faced both of those teams and had pretty similar results. Tigers lost by 10-points at home to South Dakota and crushed Florida A&M 76-54. I not only think Pacific will cover, but I give them a great shot at winning outright.
Warriors are a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 games vs a team from the West Coast Conference and have failed to cover 4 straight at home. Take Pacific!
|11-11-19||Samford +9 v. Belmont||63-95||Loss||-110||10 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Samford +9 -110
I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog against the Bruins. Belmont has some nice pieces back from last year's team that received an at-large big, but they lost two big time playmakers in Dylan Windler (21.3 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and Kevin McClain (16.8 ppg).
Bruins lost their opener 72-79 at Illinois State as a 5.5-point favorite. I just feel Belmont is getting a little too much love from the books to start the year and this Samford team is not only capable of covering, but winning this game outright. Bulldogs are an impressive 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and a perfect 7-0 the last 2 seasons as a road underdog. Take Samford!
|11-10-19||Arkansas-Little Rock +5.5 v. Illinois State||70-75||Win||100||6 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas-Little Rock +5½ -109
The Trojans are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Redbirds. Little Rock opened up the season as a 5.5-point dog at home against Belmont and went on to win the game outright 79-72.
I like their chances of making it two straight upsets with a win against Illinois State, who is working in 8 new players to a team that won just 17-games last year. Redbirds have failed to cover in 5 straight against a team from the Sun Belt, while the Trojans are a solid 5-2 ATS last 7 vs the Missouri Valley. Take Little Rock!
|11-10-19||Florida State +6 v. Florida||Top||63-51||Win||100||4 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Florida State +6 -105
I really like the value we are getting with the Seminoles as a dog. I think we are getting a great price here on FSU coming off an upset loss on the road at Pitt in their opener. Winning on the road right out of the gate is never easy, especially against a conference opponent.
I also wasn't overly impressed with Florida in their 15 point win as a 22-point favorite at home against North Florida. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Seminoles won this game outright.
Gators have been an awful bet at home, as they are 3-13 ATS last 16 at the Exactech Arena, including a 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 at home with a total of 130 to 134.5. Take Florida State!
|11-09-19||Oklahoma v. Minnesota +4.5||71-62||Loss||-110||18 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Minnesota +4½ -110
I really like the value here with Minnesota catching points against Oklahoma. I just think this is going to be a tough year for the Sooners, who lost 6 seniors and had two other guys transfer from last year's team. I know the Gophers are reloading as well, but I like what they got coming back. Minnesota was impressive in their opener, destroying Cleveland State 85-50 as a 22-point favorite. Oklahoma is 7-19 ATS as a road favorite under Kruger, including a 4-14 ATS mark on the road when favored by 6 or less. Take Minnesota!
|11-09-19||Southern Utah v. Nebraska -7||Top||79-78||Loss||-110||12 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nebraska -7 -110
It was about as awful a start to the season as Nebraska fans could have hoped for when their team came out and got annihilated 66-47 by UC-Riverside as a 15.5-point home favorite. Not what they were expecting in the debut of Fred Hoiberg.
However, I think that result has created some big time value here with the Cornhuskers, who are laying single digits against a Southern Utah team that picked to finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky. Even after the loss in the opener, Nebraska is 22-10 ATS last 32 at home. Cornhuskers are also 10-1 ATS last 11 at home if their last game was a non-conference game. Take Nebraska!
|11-09-19||Massachusetts v. Fairfield +4.5||62-60||Win||100||5 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird CASH COW on Fairfield +4½ -110
I like the Stags to cash in here as a small home dog against the Minutemen. UMASS has been a mess under Matt McCall and are likely to struggle some early with a bunch of new players and completely revamped coaching staff.
While it came in a loss, I was really impressed with Fairfields 64-68 loss to Bucknell in their season opener. That's a Bucknell team that had 3 starters back from a 21-win team and are the biggest threats to Colgate for the Patriot League title. Take Fairfield!
|11-08-19||Illinois v. Grand Canyon +8||83-71||Loss||-109||11 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Grand Canyon +8 -109
I really like the value here with Grand Canyon as a near double-digit dog at home against Illinois. The fact that the Fighting Illini are laying this small a number against a team from the WAC really tells you all you need to know.
The Antelopes are a popular pick to win the WAC this year and they landed a big time transfer in TCU's Jaylen Fisher. Not to mention we already saw Illinois struggle against a small conference team, as they only won by 8 at home against Nicholls State in their opener and they were a 22.5-point favorite in that one. Take Grand Canyon!
|11-08-19||Marist +7.5 v. VMI||58-56||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marist +7½ -110
I just feel like this is way too many points for the Keydets to be laying against the Red Foxes. I get Marist isn't very good and is expected to finish near the bottom of the MAAC, but not a lot is expected out of VMI either.
While the Red Foxes will be taking the court for the first time this season, the Keydets opened on Tuesday at East Carolina and get destroyed 80-68 as a 8.5-point dog. VMI was lucky to only lose by 12, as they shot just 37% from the field, while allowing the Pirates to connect on 53%. That's a ECU team that won just 10 games last year. Take Marist!
|11-06-19||Virginia -2.5 v. Syracuse||48-34||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Virginia -2½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number here with the defending champs on the road against the Orange. No denying that Virginia lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but time after time TOny Bennett has made it work with whatever he has on his roster. To think this team won't be one of the best in the ACC is a mistake.
Syracuse is a team I think could be down this year. They lost 3 of their top 4 scores and the backcourt situation doesn't look ideal. Sure they will play tough defense under Jim Boeheim, but I don't think that will be enough here. I just don't see Syracuse scoring enough to pull off the upset. Take Virginia!
|11-06-19||Green Bay v. Purdue -19||Top||57-79||Win||100||19 h 33 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Purdue -19 -110
I got no problem laying the big number with Purdue at home against the likes of Green Bay. I think people are sleeping on the Boilermakers a little bit due to them losing Carson Edwards, but this is a team that has the good to contends with the likes of Michigan State and others for the Big Ten title.
They might not have the superstar on their roster like Edwards, but they are extremely deep and I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep pace. History agrees, as the Boilermakers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Purdue!
|11-05-19||St. Mary's -3 v. Wisconsin||Top||65-63||Loss||-115||20 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Mary's -3 -115
You might be wondering why Wisconsin is getting points against the Gaels. It's for good reason and I think St Mary's is going to make easy work of a Badgers team in transition. Wisconsin only loses two starters, but they lost one of the best players in the country in Ethan Happ. For a team that ranked 276th in scoring at 68.6 ppg, I think the offense is going to have a hard time keeping pace with better competition.
The Gaels have all their key guys back from last year's NCAA Tournament team that won 22-games and beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, despite many thinking it was going to be a down year for St Mary's. They also got some key guys back from injury and this is one they need for their resume come March. Take St. Mary's!
|11-05-19||Toledo v. Valparaiso +3||77-79||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS HEAVY HITTER on Valparaiso +3 -110
I think we are getting a great price on the Crusaders. Toledo is one of the better programs in the MAC, so they get a lot of love from experts. I just think they are getting a little too much coming into the 2019-20 season. Sure they won 25 games last year, but they lost two of their best players in Jaelan Sanford and Nate Nagigato.
Valpo went just 15-18 last year and with the news that leading scorer and rebounder, Derrick Smits left for Butler, not much is expected of this team. They got back a couple of double-digit scorers, while adding in 3 transfers. Eron Gordon from Seton Hall, Nick Robinson from St. Joe's and ZIon Morgan from UNLV. I think the wrong team is favored. Take Valparaiso!
|11-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Clemson -5||67-60||Loss||-115||17 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -5 -115
I like the Tigers to win here easily at home against ACC rival Virginia Tech. Clemson lost a couple guys to ACL injuries that they hoped would help this year, but there's still plenty of talent on deck for the Tigers to build on last year's 9-9 finish in conference play.
As for the Hokies, they are a team in major transition after losing an elite head coach in Buzz Williams. Not only that, Williams didn't leave new head coach Mike Young a whole lot to work with. Hokies lost 4 starters and have to replace their top 5 scores from last year.
It's also worth noting that Clemson got a bit of a head start, as they played and won the World University Games in Italy. That time to build chemistry is huge and should have them ready to roll to start the year. Take Clemson!
|11-05-19||Kansas +1 v. Duke||Top||66-68||Loss||-109||26 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas +1 -109
Most are going to look at this and just blindly take Duke because of how much respect this program has with Coach K. Everyone knows the Blue Devils lost a lot from last year's team, but the assumption is that they just reload. I get it and that's definitely true to a point, but I got a hard time believing Duke has anywhere close to as talented a Top 3 as they had last year with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish.
Things didn't look good for KU early on in the offseason, but that didn't last long. Jayhawks got two guys back they thought were leaving early in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. THey also were not expecting Sivio De Sousa to win his appeal and be eligible to play. I like the mix of youth and experience on this team and while Duke might have the better NBA talent, I think it's going to take time for the Blue Devils to reach their full potential with how young they are. Take Kansas!
|04-02-19||Texas Southern v. Green Bay -5||Top||86-87||Loss||-109||10 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Green Bay -
Love the value here with the Phoenix, as they should have no problem covering the small number against the Tigers. Wisconsin-GB has gone 14-3 on their home floor this season and are 8-1 ATS in last 9 home lined games. They just beat CS-Bakersfield by 15 as a 6-point favorite last time out and prior to that beat FIU by 30 as a 4-point favorite.
Phoenix have gone 9-1 ATS last 10 home games when coming off a game as a home favorite and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning by an average of 17.4 ppg. Take Green Bay!
|03-31-19||Auburn +5 v. Kentucky||77-71||Win||100||5 h 36 m||Show|
4* Auburn/Kentucky Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Auburn +
I really like the value here with the Tigers in their showdown with SEC rival Kentucky in the Elite 8. I think we are getting a good price on Auburn because of the loss of Okeke to a torn ACL. While that's a tough blow at this juncture of the season, the Tigers are more than capable of winning without him.
The most important thing is Auburn is hot right now. They certainly liked the looks of things at the Sprint Center, as they nailed 17 of 37 (46%) of their 3-pointers against the Tar Heels. A game they absolutely dominated. Kentucky on the other hand is coming off a grueling 62-58 win over Houston, where they were lucky to win. I think Auburn is the fresher team and they won't be the least bit intimidated by this Wildcats team. Take Auburn!
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4.5||75-80||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
4* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia -
Easy play here on Virginia for me. The Cavaliers made history last year becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 and are now just 1 win away from making the Final 4. The fact that they are in the Elite 8 and haven't really played great is something I really like, as we are bound to see them put it all together.
Boilermakers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a game where they allowed 90 or more points, while Virginia is 23-8 ATS last 31 after giving up less than 50. Also, Cavaliers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Virginia!
|03-29-19||Houston +3 v. Kentucky||Top||58-62||Loss||-105||14 h 11 m||Show|
5* Sweet 16 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Houston +
Kentucky might be the better seed, but Houston is the better team and I'll take them as a dog all day against the Wildcats. Cougars absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, taking down No. 14 Georgia State 84-55 and No. 11 Ohio State 74-59. This is a team that while ranked, is a lot better than they get credit for.
A lot of people forget that their run in last year's tournament ended with a heartbreaking 64-63 loss to Michigan, as the Wolverines hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That same Michigan team made it all the way to the title game. Houston could very well be the surprise team to not only make the Final 4, but win the whole thing.
Cougars rank 12th in defensive efficiency and are tops in the country in effective field goal defense. Kentucky is not a great offensive team and chances are they will either be without their leading score PJ Washington or he plays at less than 100%. Wildcats also likely lose to Wofford if their best player doesn't have arguably his worst game of the year (0-12 on 3-pointers). The Cougars are simply the better team. Take Houston!
|03-28-19||Purdue +2 v. Tennessee||99-94||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
3* Sweet 16 No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Purdue +
I really like the value here with Purdue getting points against the Vols. I think there's a lot being made of the Boilermakers 0-4 record in Sweet 16 games under Painter, but 3 of those came against a No. 1 seed and last year's ugly loss to Texas Tech came with one of their best players in center Isaac Haas on the sidelines (broke his arm in the 1st round).
For whatever reason people don't want to give this Purdue team the props it deserves for finishing tied on top the Big Ten regular-season standings. Not too mention they looked as good as anyone in the Round of 32, absolutely destroying the defending champs 87-61. Tennessee on the other hand has beat No. 15 Colgate by 7 and needed OT to get past No. 10 Iowa. Vols are like a Big Ten team, which I think only benefits the Boilermakers.
Boilermakers are 26-14 ATS last 40 non-conference, while Vols are a mere 8-20 ATS last 28 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Take Purdue!
|03-28-19||Florida State v. Gonzaga -6.5||Top||58-72||Win||100||80 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -
I think the books are begging for money here on FSU by setting this line as high as they did, knowing that Gonzaga is the far superior team in this matchup and should easily win here by double-digits.
I think some of it has to do with how good the ACC has been and the fact that the Seminoles whooped the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16 last year, but it has a lot of people on this FSU team. Seminoles were certainly impressive in their win over Murray State, but the Racers were a No. 12 seed, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. FSU shot lights out in that game at 50.7% and this is simply not a great shooting team. They had had failed to hit 40% in 4 of their previous 6.
Gonzaga on the other has failed to shoot 50% or better from the field a mere 6 times the entire season. This is not the same offense that FSU shutdown a season ago. Bulldogs have 4 guys in double-figures and 4 of their top 5 scorers shoot 36% or better from deep. Seminoles won't be able to keep pace. Take Gonzaga!
|03-27-19||Colorado +7.5 v. Texas||Top||55-68||Loss||-110||35 h 47 m||Show|
5* Texas/Colorado NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +
I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes as a decently priced road dog against the Longhorns. Colorado has really been playing great basketball for a while now. The Buffaloes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. They beat a really strong Dayton team to open up the NIT and then destroyed Norfolk State by 16.
Texas on the other hand has squeaked by against South Dakota State and Xavier in the NIT and have just simply been way overvalued of late. Longhorns have failed to cover in 5 straight and are just 7-15 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. Texas has also failed to cover 5 straight against a winning record.
The Buffaloes are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU win, 10-2 ATS last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team from the Big 12. Take Colorado!
|03-26-19||Florida International +4 v. Green Bay||68-98||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* College Insider Tourn PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International +
Big time value here with the Panthers as a dog. Even though they are on the road, my numbers have this closer to a pick'em with a slight edge to FIU. The Phoenix won 102-94 on th road at East Tennessee State in their first game of the CIT. Scoring 100+ is impressive, but it's just as bad giving up 92 points and 50% shooting.
FIU scored 87 on the road against Texas State and they should be able to have their way offensively in this one. Panthers are also a team you want to back in this spot, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog! Take Florida International!
|03-25-19||Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado||60-76||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* Norfolk St/Colorado NIT VEGAS INSIDER on Norfolk State +
Big time value with the Spartans as a double-digit dog. Norfolk State was a 16-point road dog at Alabama in the opening round of the NIT and beat the Crimson Tide outright 80-79. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans pulled off another upset against Colorado, but I'm confident they will at worst keep this within the number.
Colorado was fortunate to come away with a cover in their first game, as they scraped by Dayton 78-73 as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffaloes really didn't deserve to win that game, as they shot just 44% from the field, while Dayton connected on 55% of their attempts.
It was a rare cover for Colorado this time of year, as the Buffaloes are still just 4-15 ATS over their last 19 post-season tournament games. Colorado is also just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Norfolk State!
|03-24-19||UCF v. Duke -13||76-77||Loss||-107||8 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Duke -
The Blue Devils came out flat and only led No. 16 seed North Dakota State by 4-points at the half. That was the wake-up call this team needed, as they outscored the Bison 54-35 in the 2nd half. I'm confident Coach K will make sure his guys don't come out flat again against UCF.
I also think there's a little extra incentive here for Duke, as they face the Knights 7'6 Tako Fall, who has already made a little jab at Zion Williamson. I'm expecting a big day for Zion and wouldn't be surprised if they got Fall into foul trouble and wore him down with their ability to get out in transition.
Duke is simply the most talented team in the country. They have the two best players in Williamson and RJ Barrett and I think they are going to continue to make easy work of the field on their way to the Final 4. Take Duke!
|03-23-19||Maryland v. LSU -2||Top||67-69||Push||0||4 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -
I love the value here with LSU at basically a pick'em against the Terps. I think the perception with the Tigers right now is there are too many distractions for them to make a deep run. After watching this team against Yale I think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder.
As for Maryland, I just haven't been impressed with this team down the stretch. Terps went just 3-3 to close out the regular-season and were bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tourny by Nebraska. They were extremely fortunate to get by Belmont on Thursday and I just think they are way outclassed here.
LSU has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3. They are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against the Big Ten. After failing to cover against Belmont, Maryland is now 1-7 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Take LSU!
|03-23-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5.5||60-63||Loss||-105||4 h 5 m||Show|
4* Indiana/Arkansas NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -
The Hoosiers didn't let the fact that they missed out on the NCAA Tournament keep them from showing up in their NIT opener, as they cruised to a 89-72 win at home. Indiana has won 4 of their last 5 and are sizzling 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
I absolutely love the value here with the Hoosiers at home in this one. Indiana is 14-5 at home, while Arkansas is just 6-9 away from home. That's why you can throw out the fact that the Razorbacks beat the Hoosiers 73-72 at home earlier this season. I actually think that's favors Indiana, who will use that as motivation.
Indiana is 13-4 ATS last 17 at home off a win by 10 or more, 11-3 ATS last 14 at home after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 at home when they come in having covered 5-6 of their last 7 games. Take Indiana!
|03-22-19||Ohio State +6 v. Iowa State||Top||62-59||Win||100||108 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State +
The Big Ten showed really well on Thursday and I expect more of the same on Friday. We saw a Minnesota team that finished 9-11 in the Big Ten whoop up on Louisville and I think we are going to see the same thing here with the Buckeyes in Friday's showdown with ISU.
Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament so people are on this team, but they were just 9-9 in the Big 12 regular-season and went just 1-5 over their final 6 before winning 3 in a row in the Big 12 Tournament. Cyclones rely a lot on the jump shot and this Buckeyes team can lock down defensively. If Ohio State simply shoots decent they win this game. Take Ohio State!
|03-22-19||Northern Kentucky +13 v. Texas Tech||57-72||Loss||-110||3 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Kentucky +
I like the value here with the Norse as a double-digit dog. I just think Texas Tech is getting a little too much respect here. Sure they played great down the stretch, but it's like everyone is giving them a pass for their ugly loss to West Virginia in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament.
I just think teams like Texas Tech, who rely so much on their defense, are primed for upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia is a prime example of that. Northern Kentucky is better than people think and I fully expect them to give the Red Raiders all they can handle in this one. Norse are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, while Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Northern Kentucky!
|03-22-19||Iowa +5 v. Cincinnati||79-72||Win||100||2 h 9 m||Show|
3* Early Bird NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +
Really like the value here with the Hawkeyes at the price. Very few are giving Iowa a chance to win this matchup, much like yesterday's No. 7 vs No. 10 matchup in the East region. Few had No. 10 Minnesota winning and they dominated No. 7 Louisville. Iowa is a better team than the Gophers and I think the Hawkeyes will not only cover but win this game outright.
Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS last 10 games played on a neutral site, while Cincinnati is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games overall, 3-7 ATS last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament and 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!
|03-21-19||St. Mary's v. Villanova -5.5||Top||57-61||Loss||-110||82 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova -
I love the value here with Villanova in this one. I think people are sleeping on this Wildcats team because they weren't as dominant as the team that won it all last year. Chances are they won't win the title for a 3rd time in 4 years, but I see absolutely no reason they don't make easy work of a St. Mary's team that wouldn't be here if Gonzaga didn't lay an egg in the WCC Tournament finale.
This is also the same Gaels team that failed time after time against the better teams they faced in non-conference, losing to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, UC Irvine and LSU. St Mary's is a team that wants to play slow and that plays right into the hands of how Villanova would prefer the game to go. Wildcats have the two best players on the floor in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall.
Jay Wright's team won both the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big East and you can't ignore the success they have had in this thing. Villanova attempted the 6th most 3-pointers in the country and ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. If the outside shots are falling they are almost impossible to stay with.
Outside of that win over Gonzaga in the WCC Title, St Mary's two best wins were against New Mexico State and San Diego. Let's also not forget they lost by 14 at home to the Bulldogs and by 48 at Gonzaga in the two regular-season meetings. Take Villanova!
|03-21-19||Yale +8 v. LSU||74-79||Win||100||75 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAA Tournament UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +
There's no denying that LSU is an extremely talented basketball team. They had the best record of an team in a pretty good SEC this year. Unfortunately for them, thins took a turn for the worse late in the year, as head coach Will Wade was suspended and has created a lot of distractions. They beat Vanderbilt without their coach in the regular-season finale, but the Commodores didn't win a conference game all season, so that's not saying much. They had a chance to make a statement in the SEC Tournament, but were knocked in their first game by Florida.
Wade isn't coming back for the NCAA Tournament and I just think not having him and all the other distractions outside of the locker room really swings thing in favor of Yale. The Ivy League has shown well in the NCAA Tournament of late, especially against the spread. Not to mention the Bulldogs are a cohesive unit that returned all 5 starters from last season. That includes an NBA talent in Miye Oni.
Yale has covered 11 of their last 14 on a neutral site and are a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. I just think this is a lot of points for LSU to be laying when a win is not a sure thing. Take Yale!
|03-20-19||Butler +5.5 v. Nebraska||Top||76-80||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
5* Nebraska/Butler NIT VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Butler +
This is just too good a number to pass up on with Butler. Nebraska was one of those teams that were on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. More times than not, teams who were on the bubble and don't make it, really struggle to play well in that first game of the NIT, regardless if it's at home or not.
Not only is that a big factor into the value with Butler, but Nebraska is also dealing with all the off-court rumors regarding Fred Hoiberg. He's the leading candidate to take over for Miles and that would be a big time hire for this program. I just think the focus is already on the future and not this game.
As bad as Butler played down the stretch, I think they are going to show up here and give a strong effort. That not only makes them a strong play at this price, but I give them a great chance of winning the game outright. Cornhuskers have gone just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team from the Big East and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 when coming off a loss. Take Butler!
|03-19-19||Belmont v. Temple +3.5||81-70||Loss||-105||36 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament First Four NO-BRAINER on Temple +
Give me Temple and the points in Tuesday's play-in game against Belmont. The Bruins are a great story and I got no problem with them being included in the field of 68, I just think the story around this team has them overvalued against a very solid Owls team.
Temple played in a pretty tough American Athletic and held their own against the top teams in the conference. They got a dynamic backcourt with Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr, who combined to average 36.2 ppg. These two should feast on a pretty bad Belmont defense, that lets team get easy looks from deep. Owls are also one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers and making opposing offenses uncomfortable. Bruins on the other hand are one of the worst at forcing turnovers. Wrong team is favored in this one. Take Temple!