5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Game of the Year on Wisconsin -5
Bottom Line: Playing close to home in Milwaukee, all the red in the arena will make this feel like a home game for the Badgers. Even though Wisconsin will have the crowd behind it, this isn't a team that needs any extra help. This Wisconsin team has shown it can play any way, and that makes it extremely dangerous. Oregon is more reliant on its offense because it give up 73.8 ppg. Wisconsin allows just 63.6 ppg. The Badgers have a 6-point win over #1 overall seed Florida. They also have a 10-point win at #1 seed Virginia. They've defeated Michigan State and Michigan with the Michigan win coming on the road. That's quite a resume and Oregon's doesn't stack up. Wins over UCLA and Arizona are impressive, but they came after losing to them the first time around. Those are also conference wins, and teams are very well scouted in conference play. Wisconsin's 56-50 win over Florida and 48-38 win at Virginia is more impressive than anything Oregon has done. Oregon needs to play fast and score a lot of points to be successful. Wisconsin has shown it can win that way, but it has also shown it can take the air out of the ball. I expect it to slow Oregon down, and that spells big trouble for the Ducks. Playing neutral court favorites or pickems after 2 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers has resulted in a 96-51 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that committed 8 or less turnovers last game. Teams fitting this system have won by an average of 8.4 points. Pound Wisconsin.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Texas +5
Bottom Line: The defending national runner-up is getting a little too much respect following an impressive performance against Wofford. The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover and 1-7 ATS this season after a win by 15 points or more. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus Big Ten foes. Playing any team like Texas that has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games, provided it is a non-conference matchup between major D-1 conferences, has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Florida -5
Bottom Line: A combination of Pitt blowing out Colorado and Florida struggling to put away Albany has created an opportunity for us to get the #1 overall seed at a good number. Florida has been an outstanding investment in the Big Dance under coach Billy Donovan. It is 26-16 ATS in the Dance under his watch, including 18-8 ATS in its last 26 NCAA Tournament contests. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tourney contests. The Panthers are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games while the Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, and they are 21-10 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent teams like Pitt that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse.

4* Major Friday Big Dance Bailout on NC Central +9
Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive wins and covers to end the season, the Cyclones are being overvalued. Iowa State is 4-14 ATS in road or neutral court games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. Playing against neutral court teams like Iowa State that have made 50% of their 3-point shots or better the last 2 games has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1997 in a game involving good free throw shooting teams (69-73%). NC Central played at Cincinnati, NC State and Wichita State this season. It defeated the Wolfpack and played a Wichita State team I believe is for real to an 11-point game. Wichita State defends far better than this Iowa State team does. Look for NC Central to keep this one close.

4* Major Friday NCAA Tournament *UPSET ALERT* on Stephen F. Austin +6.5
Bottom Line: This will be VCU's 3rd game in a week, and its history in this position isn't good. The Rams are 11-28 ATS when playing a 3rd game in a week under coach Smart, including 2-10 ATS the last 2 seasons. The Rams are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss, which means this team doesn't perform as well when playing without momentum and that oddsmakers inflate its lines in bounce-back spots. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and they get the call Friday evening.

5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State -1.5
Bottom Line: This Gonzaga team isn't as good as last year's team, which was a big disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. It struggled against Southern in its first game, winning by 6 as a 21.5-point favorite, and then was upset by Wichita State in the next round. The Zags went 0-2 ATS in those games and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in the Big Dance. They closed the season strong with big wins over St. Mary's and BYU, but they are 0-7 ATS in road or neutral court games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. While the Bulldogs have typically been able to advance past their first game in the tournament, they got a bad draw here. Oklahoma State is much better than a 9-seed and it will be hungry after a poor showing and quick exit in last year's NCAA Tournament. That loss was a rare exception to the rule as the Cowboys are on an 18-7 ATS run in opening tournament games. They have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major Friday Big Dance *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Kansas -15
Bottom Line: Much has been made about Kansas not deserving a No. 2 seed because of the injury to Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks will be out to prove they are worthy. The Kansas defense was pathetic against Iowa State in its last game. It gave up 94 points on 54% shooting. That poor showing bodes well for us here as the Jayhawks are 14-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game since 1997. They have won in this spot by an average of 17.7 points.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Bailout on Manhattan +16.5
Bottom Line: The defending champion Louisville Cardinals come in riding high off 5 consecutive blowout victories and will be looking right past a Manhattan team they defeated 79-51 last season. This is not the same Manhattan team Louisville saw in the first game of the season last year. The Jaspers are deeper and more experienced and have the benefit of knowing how hard they'll have to play to have a shot. Manhattan is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons so coach Steve Masiello has been punching all the right buttons. Grab the points.

4* Major Thursday NCAA Tournament *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on North Dakota State +4
Bottom Line: This experienced North Dakota State team should give Oklahoma all its wants and more, and I look for the Bison to pull off the upset. The Bison are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. Oklahoma is not a good defensive team (allows 75.9 ppg), and that spells bad news this time of year against a foreign opponent that will be playing loose with nothing to lose.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Oddsmaker Error on Delaware +14.5
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers are asking Michigan State to lay a few too many points. The Spartans are healthy and playing well, but Delaware has averaged 80.0 points in road/neutral court games this season. High-scoring teams make good underdogs because the backdoor is always open. Since Tom Izzo took over, fading Michigan State on a neutral floor when it is laying 12.5-15.0 points has resulted in an 8-1 ATS record. Delaware challenged itself early this season by playing 11 of its first 13 games away from home. It was a double-digit dog at Richmond, Villanova, Notre Dame and Ohio State during this stretch and went 4-0 ATS in these games while beating the spread by a combined 37 points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Syracuse -12.5
Bottom Line: Syracuse wilted down the stretch of the regular season, but I expect the Orange to be re-energized and ready to make a Final Four run. Western Michigan relies on getting to the foul line to generate offense, but Syracuse doesn't foul very much. The Orange are 8-0 ATS this season versus good foul-drawing teams like W. Michigan that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Orange have won these games by an average of 13.9 points. The Broncos enter off an impressive 98-77 victory over Toledo in the MAC championship, but they are 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in road or neutral court games after a combined score of 155 points or more. They have lost by an average of 14.5 points in this spot. The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. WMU's upset win over Toledo has it in the Dance for the first time since 2004 so it's just happy to be here. Syracuse, on the other hand, has championship aspirations and will be in a foul mood after finishing the regular season poorly. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more under coach Hawkins. They are on a 19-37 ATS slide as an underdog of 10 or more points, losing these games by 16.4 points on average. Pound Syracuse.

5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on Iowa -2
Bottom Line: Iowa went from looking like a team that could beat anybody to looking like a team that could lose to anybody, but I'm not ready to give up on the Hawkeyes. They enter the NCAA Tournament absolutely disgusted with the way they finished the season, and we should get maximum effort from them because of it. Tennessee, on the other hand, enters feeling pretty good about the way it closed, and I don't see it playing with the same level of desperation as Iowa. The Hawkeyes should also benefit from getting away from the Big Ten. Teams they beat the first time around in conference play were getting them down the stretch. It will be to their advantage playing a team that isn't very familiar with them. Iowa is on an impressive 16-5 ATS run in non-conference games. The Hawks are 18-7 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of .600 to .800. Tennessee is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons versus excellent ball handling teams that committing 12 turnovers per game or less. The Vols are also on a 33-52 ATS slide in neutral court games and a 29-52 ATS slide in all tournament games. Pound Iowa.

5* Wiseguy NIT *BEST BET* on Florida State -10.5
Bottom Line: It's a letdown playing in the NIT for FGCU after all the success and national attention it received as a Cinderella in last year's Big Dance. Plus, this is not quite the same team that made a run to the Sweet 16. This year's Eagles lost 79-55 at Nebraska, 82-62 at NC State, 72-61 at Florida International and 66-53 at Mississippi State. While FSU had its ups and downs in conference play, it was one tough cookie in non-conference action. The Seminoles defeated VCU 85-67 and UMass 60-55. They played Michigan to a 2-point game and Florida to a 1-point game. FSU is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average of 12.7 points. Pound FSU.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Championship *BEST BET* on Michigan State -2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State lost both regular season matchups with the Wolverines and the defense was lacking in both as they allowed 80 and 79 points, respectively. Highly motivated by those defeats, I expect the Spartans to have their revenge with defense as the catalyst. Favorites out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent where they allowed 75 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons if their opponent is off 2 straight wins against conference foes. Pound Michigan State.

4* Major SEC Championship *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky +6.5
Bottom Line: Kentucky enters this contest with a ton of confidence following back-to-back double-digit victories over LSU and Georgia, and it will be highly motivated as it looks to avenge a pair of double-digit loss to the Wildcats. Teams headed up by coach Calipari are an impressive 38-17 ATS since 1997 when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Florida got a big test yesterday from Tennessee, and I expect it to get another major test today.

4* Major AAC Tournament Championship on Connecticut +8
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Huskies, who were handed an u-g-l-y 33-point loss when these teams met a week ago. The Huskies are an awesome 10-2 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss over the last 3 seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS under coach Ollie in games played away from home 15 games or more into the season versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4.0 ppg or more.

4* Major SEC Tournament *SUREFIRE* (ABC) on Tennessee +7
Bottom Line: Tennessee had won 3 straight against Florida before dropping both regular season matchups this season, and it will be extremely motivated as a result. The Vols are on a 30-14 ATS run when playing with double revenge. Additionally, neutral court dogs that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 91-53 ATS since 1997 if the team they are seeking revenge against is off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take Tennessee.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* on Baylor -1
Bottom Line: I'll back Baylor, who is playing its best basketball of the season, in this double revenge spot. Texas won the season's first two matchup, but it is on the decline at 3-4 in its last 7 games. Baylor has won 5 in a row and 9 of 10 with the only blemish against Texas so it will be after some cold hard revenge. The Bears are 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Drew. Texas is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Barnes.

5* Wiseguy SEC Tournament Game of the Year on Kentucky -4.5
Bottom Line: We are getting tremendous value with Kentucky because it is on a 0-5 ATS slide and failed to cover 4 times during this stretch as a double-digit favorite. I expect to see the Wildcats give more effort in this game than we've seen from them in a long time, especially on the defensive end. They will be highly motivated because of how poorly they performed down the stretch. They will also be extremely focused because they split with LSU and the win was far from impressive. The total is significant because college teams headed up by John Calipari are 10-2 ATS since 1997 in neutral court battles where the total is 145 to 149.5. His teams have won these games by an average of 10.7 points. The total is a good indicator of how odds makers see a game playing out, and a total in this range clearly favors Kentucky. Factoring in the spread, odds makers are expecting LSU to score around 70 points. The Wildcats are 12-1 in their last 13 games when holding opponents to 70 points or less. The lone loss came to Florida ans the 12 wins all came by at least 7 points. Pound Kentucky.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Tournament Game of the Year on Penn State +5
Bottom Line: Penn State is happy to have another shot at Minnesota since it lost by 18 to the Golden Gophers in the regular season finale. That effort is not sitting well with the Nittany Lions since they played the Gophers to a 3-point game in the first meeting. I expect Penn State to take Minnesota right down to the wire with a chance to win this one outright. Playing against neutral floor favorites or pickems that have gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 games has resulted in a 49-15 ATS record since 1997 if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team that has a losing record. This system is 5-0 ATS on the season. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Pound Penn State.

4* Major Big West Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Cal Poly SLO +7.5
Bottom Line: Look for Cal Poly to give Santa Barbara a game this afternoon. The Mustangs won the first meeting on the road by 8 points but lost at home in their regular season finale by 16. That loss will have them extremely motivated. Santa Barbara is on a 13-26 ATS slide after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. They are on a 26-48 ATS slide after 3 or more consecutive wins. Cal Poly is 11-3 ATS under coach Joe Callero in road or neutral court games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on South Carolina +3
Bottom Line: South Carolina lost by 16 at Auburn the last time these two met, but the Gamecocks are on a 15-1 ATS run in road or neutral court games when out for revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent. Additionally, Auburn is 1-8 ATS under coach Tony Barbee in neutral court games.

4* Major ACC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Boston College +2
Bottom Line: Boston College had won 3 straight against Georgia Tech before dropping both regular season matchups. The Eagles played Tech to a 3-point game on the road in the most recent meeting, and I expect them to break through here. BC is on a 30-15 ATS run in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Donahue's teams are 22-8 ATS lifetime in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Gregory's Georgia Tech teams are 10-24 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. This experienced Boston College team has shown glimpses, like when it took UConn down to the wire and when it beat Syracuse. I like its chances of rising to the occasion in this motivated spot.

4* Major MEAC *SUREFIRE* on SC State +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a vulnerable spot for Savannah State because it just defeated SC State by 19 in its last game. It won't match the intensity of the Bulldogs, who know they must put forth their best effort to come out on top. The Tigers already have this one chalked up as a win in their minds, and that puts them in dangerous territory. Savannah State is a poor 4-10 ATS in its last 14 contests that had a line. It is also just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 lined conference contests.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Ball State +13.5
Bottom Line: Ohio is home following back-to-back wins and covers on the road, but home hasn't been good to the Bobcats lately. They are 0-3 SU in their last 3 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. They are just 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents under coach Jim Christian. They are 1-12 ATS off a road win over a conference foe and 0-11 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite under Christian. This season, the Bobcats are 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game and 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 straight losses against conference foes are 111-65 ATS since 1997 if their opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Road dogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenge a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 166-105 ATS since 1997 if they are also off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more in conference play. Pound Ball State.

4* Major Big Ten *BLOOD BATH* (CBS) on Ohio State -2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State is only 19-35 ATS under coach Tom Izzo in road games when the line is +3 to -3. It is just 18-31 ATS under Izzo in road games as an underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. The Buckeyes are 87-63 ATS at home as a favorite or pickem under coach Thad Matta. They are 40-27 ATS under Matta when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Buckeyes are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure +10.5
Bottom Line: VCU can earn a share of the A-10 title with a win and a Saint Louis loss to UMass tomorrow so it has plenty to play for. However, asking the Rams to lay double digits in this spot is asking too much. VCU just played a tough game at Richmond Thursday so fatigue will be an issue. This means its press won't be as effective. It also means that it has had only one day to prepare. This is significant because it hasn't seen the Bonnies previously this season. Plus, the Bonnies have had a week to prepare. St. Bonaventure's 4-8 road record looks bad, but consider that 7 of the losses came by 8 points or less. It played UMass to a 5-point game on the road and Saint Louis to a 6-point game on the road. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 14-24 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points under Shaka Smart. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in an 83-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they're matched up with a team that has covered in 4 of its last 5. This system is 10-2 ATS this season. Pound St. Bonaventure.

4* Major Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on Cal -4
Bottom Line: Following 3 consecutive defeats, the Golden Bears are likely on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They can still play their way in but MUST take care of business here. I'm confident they will in this highly motivated spot. This is a very similar situation to one we saw earlier this season. Cal lost two straight road games to UCLA and USC and then lost to ASU in its return home. Incredibly motivated, it upset Arizona in its next game. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons in games taking place at least 15 games into the season versus teams with a win rate of 60% to 80%. They are also 6-15 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Boyle. The Golden Bears are 28-10-1 ATS in their last 39 Saturday games.

4* Major C-USA *PUNISHER* on Tulane +12
Bottom Line: Home teams that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 50 points are 108-55 ATS since 1997 if they're also off a road loss of 20 points or more. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points. So Miss is playing for a conference title, but Tulane has a chance to post a winning conference record and avenge the embarrassing loss in the first meeting. Grab the points as the Green Wave keep this one within the number.

4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Cal -3.5
Bottom Line: Look for Utah to suffer a letdown as it hits the highway, where it's 1-7 this season, following back-to-back big wins over ASU and Colorado. Cal is off back-to-back losses on the road so it will be happy to see its home floor where it is 12-3 on the season. The Golden Bears are on a 15-4 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, and they have won these contests by 13.0 points on average. They are also 9-1 ATS in home games under coach Montgomery after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight, and they have won these contests by an average of 15.6 points.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +4.5
Bottom Line: Tennessee is on the bubble and needs this game, but I believe Auburn will want it just a little bit more. The Tigers have dropped 6 straight in the series and will be out for blood in their last home game of the season as a result. Home court has been huge in the series with the home team on a 13-3 ATS run. Plus, the Vols are on a 0-4 ATS slide road games versus teams that have a winning home record. Auburn is a strong 12-5 at home this season and will have a good opportunity to upset Tennessee tonight. Pound the Tigers.

4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon -7
Bottom Line: Oregon is currently on Joe Lunardi's last 4 in list, which means it can't afford a slip-up here. The Ducks know taking care of business against ASU and Arizona in their last 2 regular-season games will go a long way toward punching their ticket to the Big Dance. ASU has really struggled on the road where it is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games with the 5 losses coming by 15.2 points. The Sun Devils are 1-7 ATS this season versus teams like Oregon that have outscored their opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. They have lost to these teams by 9.8 points on average. Oregon is 11-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They have won by 9.3 points on average in this spot.

4* Major Big East *BLOOD BATH* on Seton Hall +2
Bottom Line: Seton Hall won the first matchup at Xavier by 8 points and is in a great spot to get the Musketeers again. Xavier is off a huge win over Creighton and has Villanova on deck. Even though this is a revenge game, the Musketeers will have a difficult time refocusing such a short time removed from their biggest win of the season. Seton Hall enters on a 3-game losing streak so I expect it to give a little extra in its last home game of the season. The Pirates are 13-5 ATS under coach Willard off 3 straight losses to conference foes. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams like Xavier that have a losing road record.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Game of the Week on Iowa -14.5
Bottom Line: Following an emotionally draining home loss to Michigan, I don't see Purdue being able to hang with an Iowa team in its most motivated spot of the season. The Hawkeyes have lost three in a row and will put forth an effort on their home floor today that we haven't seen since they crushed Michigan. Home favorites or pickems off 2 or more consecutive upset losses on the road are an impressive 80-38 ATS since 1997. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. It is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in its last 8 March matchups. You don't want to make a habit of going against a Fran McCaffery team in March, and you have to love the way Iowa controls the boards. There issue has been on the defensive end, and I'm confident they do something about it here. Purdue is 0-9 ATS after a game where its covered the spread this season. Pound Iowa.

4* Major MVC Game of the Week on Loyola-Chicago -2.5
Bottom Line: The Ramblers can avoid sole possession of the conference basement with a win. They can also go into the conference tourney with some much-needed momentum. Loyola has lost 5 straight, but 4 of those were on the road and the other was against Wichita State. Like Loyola, Evansville has struggled away from home. The Purple Aces are 1-11 in their last 12 road games, including 0-6 in their last 6. Evansville is off a big revenge win over Drake, which bodes well for us because it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a cover. Loyola was pathetic from the foul line against Missouri State, shooting just 35.7%. That poor shooting effort actually plays to our advantage. The Ramblers would have played the Bears tougher had they shot their season average from the charity stripe and we are getting a better line because of it. Loyola is 6-0 ATS under coach Porter Moser after a game where it made 53% of its free throws or worse. It has won these games by an average of 5.7 points.

5* Wiseguy Horizon League Game of the Year on Detroit +5.5
Bottom Line: Tough, tough spot for Green Bay playing its second road game in three days and doesn't have much incentive having already sewed up the regular-season conference championship. Detroit is looking for some momentum prior to the league tournament, and that's not its only motivation. The Titans are off a bad home loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and will be out for revenge for a 10-point loss at Green Bay. Detroit has been extremely competitive at home in this series, winning or losing by fewer than 5.5 points in 4 straight, 7 of the last 8 and 14 of the last 16. Green Bay is on a 6-18 ATS slide when it's off 3 straight wins against conference foes. Also, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Detroit.

4* Major MAAC *PUNISHER* (ESPNU) on Rider +3
Bottom Line: This is the last home game of the season for Rider, and I expect it to leave it all on the court to end a 4-game home skid and to assure itself of at least a .500 record in conference play. Rider lost the first matchup at Canisius by just 3 points, and it is on a 45-25 ATS run when out for same-season revenge. The Broncs are also an awesome 14-2 ATS under coach Baggett in games when the line is +3 to -3. They have won these contests by an average of 6.3 points. Rider has won 14 of its last 16 home games against Canisius, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy MAAC Game of the Week on Manhattan -3.5
Bottom Line: This is a game Manhattan wants badly. The Jaspers were defeated by Iona in last season's MAAC Tournament championship game, and they were taken down by the Gaels again last month. Iona doesn't have the same level of motivation. It has already locked up the conference championship and has nothing to play for. Playing against road teams that scored 80 points or more last game in a conference win has resulted in an 80-47 ATS record since 1997 when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss. Additionally, Iona is an ultra-soft 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons when off a road win of 10 points or more. Pound Manhattan.

4* Major Big West *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on UC-Irvine -3.5
Bottom Line: First place is on the line in this Big West matchup, and I give the edge to the home team. While both teams will be motivated, I see the Anteaters wanting this game just a little bit more as they are off an upset loss to Northridge and will be out for revenge for a 20-point loss to Santa Barbara in the first matchup. Home court has been the difference in this series as the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3. These 8 wins have come by an average of 8.0 points.

5* Wiseguy Big West Game of the Year on Fullerton -3.5
Bottom Line: Off a big win over UC-Irvine, expect the Matadors to suffer a letdown on the road tonight. They are a poor 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. Even worse, they are 1-7 ATS this season in road games against teams that have a losing record and have lost these games by an average of 8.0 points. Northridge's 81-75 win over Irvine is also significant because it is 0-6 ATS under coach Reggie Theus in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more. The Matadors have lost by an average of 12.5 points in this spot. The Titans have played some good ball lately at home where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Pound Fullerton.

4* Major C-USA *PUNISHER* on UTEP -3
Bottom Line: I'll back the Miners laying a small number as I believe they will be the more motivated side. They lost both of last season's meetings with Tulsa so this is a game they've had circled. This is also their last home game of the season, and teams tend to give a little extra when that is the case. UTEP is 10-3 ATS this season when playing teams that have a winning record. The Miners are also 10-2 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4.0 ppg or more. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Golden Hurricane is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Texas-El Paso.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on ASU -1.5
Bottom Line: ASU is 14-1 this season at home, including 6-0 in its last 6. These 6 wins have come by an average of 8.8 points, and I expect the Sun Devils to continue their home dominance tonight. Herb Sendek called out his team following Sunday's 23-point loss at Utah, saying their effort was unacceptable. I expect his squad to respond just like his teams typically have throughout the years following a lopsided loss. Consider that Sendek's teams are 53-31 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent since 1997. Adding to their level of motivation is a loss at Stanford earlier in the month and a home loss to Stanford last season. The Cardinal have performed well on the road, but the Sun Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Pound ASU.

4* Major Big Ten *BLOOD BATH* on Illinois -2.5
Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Nebraska. The Huskers are off a 19-point win over Purdue, but they are 0-6 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more under coach Miles, losing by an average of 16.7 points in this spot. Illinois returns home with confidence and momentum following a big win at Minnesota. Plus, the Illini have had a week to prepare for this contest while the Huskers have had only 2 days. Bet Illinois.

4* Major ACC *PUNISHER* on NC State +4.5
Bottom Line: Now is the time to fade North Carolina. The Tar Heels have won 9 in a row SU and ATS, but they are 6-16 ATS under Roy Williams in road games after 8 or more consecutive wins. The Heels really put a beating on Wake Forest last game, but they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 20 points and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. NC State lost by 14 at UNC earlier this month, but the Wolfpack are 8-1 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. They have won these contests by an average of 10.0 points.

5* Wiseguy MWC Game of the Week on Utah State +12
Bottom Line: Look for the Lobos to suffer a letdown following Saturday's 14-point victory over San Diego State. New Mexico won by 13 points at Utah State in the first matchup so it won't give the Aggies its full attention. Utah State will be out for revenge for that loss, and it will also be out to end a 3-game skid. Playing underdogs of 10 points or more that are out for revenge for a home loss has resulted in a 117-71 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Additionally, road underdogs or pickems that have lost by 48 points or more ATS in their last ten games are 36-12 ATS the last 5 seasons if they are playing a team that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last 3 games. Pound Utah State.

5* Wiseguy MAAC Game of the Year on Niagara +4
Bottom Line: Right away, I love the fact that plays against February road favorites or pickems that are riding a win streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 105-64 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system alone makes Quinnipiac fade material today. What elevates this play to Game of the Year status is the fact the Bobcats are off a big upset win at Canisius and are playing a 2nd road contest in a 3-day span. This spot has letdown written all over it for the Bobcats, who will have an extremely tough time getting up for a Niagara team they defeated by 14 in the first matchup. It's been an extremely difficult season for the Purple Eagles, but it's Senior Day (the last home game of the season) and teams tend to show up in a big way as they try to send the upperclassmen out on a high note. Quinnipiac has outscored the opposition by an average of 4.4 points on the season. That's an excellent margin through 26 games. But here's the clincher: Niagara is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 3.0 points on average. Pound the Purple Eagles.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* on Oklahoma State -9.5
Bottom Line: Expect Texas Tech to suffer a hangover following a one-point loss to Kansas. The Red Raiders nearly pulled off the shocker, largely due to better than normal three-point shooting. Unfortunately for them, they are 0-12 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 13.5 points in this situation. This game is all about revenge for Marcus Smart and company. We all know what happened in the first meeting. Smart is eligible to return here, and I expect him to show the country the type of talent he truly is in this highly motivated spot.

5* Wiseguy Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn +11
Bottom Line: Harvard gets caught looking ahead to tomorrow's game against Princeton, who has been its biggest rival the past few seasons. Princeton played Harvard pretty tough in the first matchup so the Crimson will be much more concerned about the Tigers than they will the Quakers, who they defeated by 30 earlier this month. Penn has been a much better team at home where it is 3-0 in conference play. Penn has also had a lot of success at home against Harvard where it has won or lost by 6 points or less in 16 straight dating back to 1998. Pound Penn.

5* Wiseguy Summit League Game of the Month on Western Illinois +10.5
Bottom Line: Playing against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that returned just two starters and are off an upset win on the road has resulted in a 42-17 ATS record the last five seasons. Additionally, playing on underdogs of 10 points or more that are out for revenge for a same-season loss has resulted in a 45-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against an opponent that's off an upset win on the road. Western Illinois is 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more. The Leathernecks are also 9-1 ATS the last 3 season on the road versus slow-tempo teams that average 53 shots per game or less. Pound Western Illinois.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami -3
Bottom Line: Notre Dame is being overvalued on the road following its first road win of the season and a stretch where it has covered in 3 of its last 4. The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 over the last 2 seasons. They are also 0-6 ATS after playing a road game this season. Miami is 0-6 at home in conference play so it will go after this game with all it's got. Early home conference losses to VA Tech and FSU were inexcusable. However, the last 4 have come against Duke, Syracuse, Pitt and NC State. Miami is 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Hurricanes.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee -9
Bottom Line: Off back-to-back losses to Florida and Mizzou, Tennessee will be all business when it takes the floor tonight. The Vols are a perfect 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Tennessee is 6-0 ATS lifetime in home games under coach Martin after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog. The Vols were swept by Georgia last season, which only adds to their level of motivation. Pound Tennessee.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State +4.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Baylor following a big double-OT win over K-State. The Bears won't give Oklahoma State their full attention in the wake of Saturday's win, especially since they won by six in Stillwater and the Cowboys are struggling and don't have Marcus Smart. It's been a rough stretch for Oklahoma State, but I don't see them packing it in. They still have the possibility of achieving a winning record in conference play, and that will keep them motivated. Playing against road teams that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent and are playing with one day of rest or none has resulted in a 369-256 ATS record the last five seasons. Plus, Baylor is a soft 10-19 ATS as a home favorite of 6.0 points or less or pickem under coach Drew. Pound Oklahoma State.

4* Major ACC *PUNISHER* (ESPNU) on Boston College -1
Bottom Line: Boston College will go after this game with everything it has in hopes of ending a four-game skid. The Eagles lost the first meeting at Notre Dame in OT so they will enter this one believing they can win. The Fighting Irish haven't had much fight on the road where they are 0-6 this season with an average losing margin of 5.5 points. They are a poor 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 versus the ACC while the Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus ACC foes. Bet BC.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Temple +9
Bottom Line: Off an ugly loss to Louisville, look for Temple to come storming back as it seeks revenge for a Feb. 6 loss at SMU. The Owls are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are an even more impressive 9-1 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average of 8.2 points. Temple lost by double digits at Cincinnati earlier this season, and then played the Bearcats to a 4-point game for an easy cover at home in the rematch. Expect a similar turn of events here as the Owls give SMU all its wants and more. Pound Temple.

4* Major Big 10 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Illinois +5
Bottom Line: I expect Ohio State to suffer a hangover following a disappointing performance at home against rival Michigan. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Illinois has been a tough place for Ohio State to play, and I expect the Fighting Illini to be ready. They have won the last two home meetings by 5 and 19 points. Home court has been big in the series of late with the home team going 5-1 ATS in the last 6. After back-to-back games in the role of road dog, the Illini are home where they have won 9 of 13 on the season. Plus, John Groce's squads are 11-1 ATS lifetime after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog and have won these matchups by 7.8 points on average.

5* Wiseguy Mountain West Game of the Year on SJSU +9.5
Bottom Line: Wyoming won't give a SJSU squad that is 0-12 in league play and that it defeated by 11 points last month its full attention in the aftermath of Tuesday's upset win over San Diego State. The Cowboys haven't been even close to the same team on the road. They are 2-7 in true road games this season with the wins coming by just 2 and 7 points. Wyoming is 1-8 ATS lifetime under coach Shyatt following a victory of 6 points or fewer. Plus, Shyatt's clubs are 1-9 ATS lifetime in road games following an upset victory. Pound the Spartans.

4* Major Big 12 *BEST BET* on Iowa State -10
Bottom Line: After getting whacked at West Virginia Monday, Iowa State will show no mercy to a Texas Tech team it defeated by 11 points last month. The Cyclones have delivered wins of 18 and 20 points the last two times they have hosted the Red Raiders, and I expect another dominant performance here. ISU is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss of more than 20 points. When oddsmakers have installed Texas Tech as a double-digit dog, it's been for good reason. The Red Raiders are 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons, including 2-10 ATS during this stretch on the road. It has lost the road battles in this set by an average of 18.7 points. Texas Tech is also a soft 2-11 ATS when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, losing these battles by an average of 19.7 points. Texas Tech looks like it has something going following 3 consecutive wins in conference play. However, it is on a 2-10 ATS slide in games following 3 straight wins against conference foes.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Arizona State +5.5
Bottom Line: Arizona has been far from dominant on the road this season. It is 4-1 in its last 5 road games but only one of the wins came by more than 4 points, and that was against last-place USC. Since Miller arrived, the Wildcats have been a dead fade following a home win over a conference opponent. They are 9-26 ATS under his watch in this spot. Additionally, the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. ASU was embarrassed 91-68 at Arizona in the first matchup, and it will be extremely motivated as a result. Pound the Sun Devils.

4* Major Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC +3.5
Bottom Line: USC has struggled in conference play, but Utah shouldn't be laying this many points on the road where it is 0-6 this season. The Trojans lost by 10 to rival UCLA last game, but they are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet USC.

5* Wiseguy Big East Game of the Year on Seton Hall +1.5
Bottom Line: Off a big win over Creighton, I expect St. John's to suffer a letdown at Seton Hall where it has walked away a loser 8 straight times. Those 8 losses have come by 11.3 points on average. Seton Hall has had only way day to gear up for this contest, but it is 9-1 ATS under Kevin Willard in home games when playing with 1 or less days of rest, winning in this spot by an average of 16.6 points. Pound the Pirates.

4* Major Mountain West Monster on Boise State -2.5
Bottom Line: Coach Craig Neal's boys have been a bad investment in odd scheduling spots. Playing 2 games in a week is normal, but the Lobos are 0-6 ATS under Neal when playing for the 2nd time in 8 days. They have won these games on average but only by 0.6 points. Boise State can score the basketball, which makes it the type of team New Mexico has struggled against when it hits the road. The Lobos are on a 4-14 ATS slide in road games 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams that average 77.0 ppg or more. They have lost to these teams by 9.4 points on average.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Washington +2.5
Bottom Line: Washington has lost 3 in a row and was beaten badly at Colorado last time out. However, it is on a 19-8 ATS run at home after a loss of 15 points or more. The Huskies are also on a 9-2 ATS run at home after playing their last 3 games on the road. Stanford won the first matchup, but coach Romar's clubs are on a 57-36 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss. Pound Washington.

4* Major NCAAB *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pitt -2
Bottom Line: Look for Syracuse to suffer its first loss of the season tonight. Pitt gave the Orange major problems in the first matchup, and it figures to be even more of a handful on its home floor where it is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an 11.2-point average margin of victory.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +2
Bottom Line: The beating the Volunteers received at Florida only helps our cause as they will be that much more motivated. I'm not sure they needed any added motivation because they are 7-1 in their last 8 home games against the Gators, but the revenge factor certainly applies given that the Vols are on a 13-2 ATS run when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 11.1 points. Plus, Tennessee is on a 17-4 ATS run as a home dog of 3 points or fewer or pickem, winning in this spot by an average of 4.4 points. Pound Tennessee.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on West Virginia +2.5
Bottom Line: Iowa State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in four straight games under coach Fred Hoiberg, losing by an average of 1.9 points in this spot. This trend shows the way high point output causes oddsmakers to overvalue teams. Teams like WVU that pack in it defensively don't force as many turnovers, but they also don't give up as many easy buckets on fly-by's and overplays. Iowa State is on a 0-6 ATS skid in conference play versus teams that force 14 turnovers per game or less. It has lost to these teams by an average of 0.2 points. Additionally, the Cyclones are 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following 2 or more consecutive overs, losing these contests by an average 0.9 points. Pound the Mountaineers.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Loyola-Chi +1
Bottom Line: Loyola is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog. The Ramblers are also on a 4-0 ATS run when matched up against a team that has a winning record. The Redbirds are 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. Loyola lost the first matchup on the road, but I expect it to have its revenge at home. Pound the Ramblers.

4* Major MVC *SUREFIRE* on Northern Iowa +7
Bottom Line: Northern Iowa is a tough place to play. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Panthers winning last season's home meeting by 5 points. Look for Northern Iowa to take the Shockers down to the wire.

4* Major Atlantic-10 *SUREFIRE* on La Salle +4.5
Bottom Line: Now's the time to go against the Billikens. They are off a dominant 65-49 win at St. Joseph's but are 0-4 ATS following a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll grab the points.

4* Major ACC Game of the Week on Maryland -3.5
Bottom Line: Florida State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games versus a team with a winning record. Maryland has been outstanding in bounce back spots, going 22-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses under Turgeon. The Noles have the Terps a beatdown in Tallahassee so Maryland will be extremely focused today.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Game of the Year on Iowa -4.5
Bottom Line: Michigan is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 8.8 points in this spot. The Wolverines are also 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa does an excellent job on the glass, which is a very positive sign. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. They have won by an average of 9.5 points in this spot. Pound Iowa.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on Mississippi State +13.5
Bottom Line: Kentucky hasn't been a good bet on the road where it is on a 4-13 ATS skid in lined road games. The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 2 seasons, 0-6 ATS in road games off 2 straight wins against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS in road games after a game forcing opponent to commit only 8 turnovers or less over the last 2 seasons.

4* Major C-USA *SUREFIRE* on Tulane +3.5
Bottom Line: Charlotte got off to slow starts in its last two games but managed to turn it on in the second half against a pair of inferior teams at home. These recent results don't bode well for the 49ers as they are 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 16.0 points in these contests. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win, period, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. I think they'll be much more concerned with Sunday's showdown at So. Miss than they will a Tulane squad that was just blown out by the Golden Eagles. The Green Wave are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Grab the points as Tulane bounces back strong.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Niagara +8.5
Bottom Line: I'll gladly grab the points with Niagara as they have won or lost by fewer than 8.5 points in 14 of their last 15 home games against Iona. Off back-to-back to back defeats and a blowout loss in the first matchup, the Purple Eagles will be out for revenge. Iona, on the other hand, will be much more concerned about Sunday's showdown with MAAC co-leader Canisius. Pound Niagara.

4* Major on Idaho +8.5
Bottom Line: This is a flat spot for New Mexico State as it hits the road for the first time since Jan. 18. The Aggies won the first meeting by 24 points so they will have a hard time getting up for this contest. The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better.

4* Major AAC Game of the Week on Temple +13
Bottom Line: Playing against February home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points off a home win where they scored 85 or more points has resulted in a 41-15 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. SMU is a soft 14-35 ATS in home games off a home win since 1997. Also, Temple is 10-2 ATS under head man Fran Dunphy after a loss of 15 points or more. This is a sandwich game for SMU off a big win over Memphis and with Cincy on deck.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia +3
Bottom Line: Playing against road teams, 15 games or more into the schedule, that hold opponents to 40% shooting or worse and have shot 50% or better their last two games has resulted in a 33-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons provided they are matched up against a team that holds its opponents to 40-42.5% shooting. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Tigers haven't been a good bet on the road where they are 0-2-2 ATS in their last four. They are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a home winning percentage above .600. The Bulldogs are on a 0-3 slide in conference play, but they are on a 7-0 ATS roll at home following 3 straight losses against conference rivals. Pound the Dawgs.

4* Major on Oakland +2.5
Bottom Line: Cleveland State is being overvalued following back-to-back high scoring wins on the road. Teams coached by head man Gary Waters are just 5-16 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight since 1997. Oakland has won 8 of 10 at home this season, and I expect it to continue its strong play at home tonight.

4* Major NCAAB Mountain West Game of the Week on Boise State -1.5
Bottom Line: San Diego State is very fortunate to still be undefeated in league play as it needed OT to win at Utah State Jan. 25. I believe it suffers its first league loss tonight against an experienced and talented Boise State squad. Boise State is 11-1 at home this season and won last season's home meeting with SDSU 69-65. The Aztecs are only 1-9 ATS the last 3 seasons when entering with covers in 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Boise State.

5* Wiseguy MVC Game of the Month on Indiana State +4.5
Bottom Line: Playing against February road favorites or pickems after 6 or more consecutive wins has resulted in a 97-50 ATS record the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS record this season. Indiana State was crushed 68-48 in the season's first matchup, but the Sycamores are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a defeat where they were held to fewer than 60 points. They have won these contests by 6.8 points on average. Indiana State won by double-digits at Wichita State last season and played the Shockers to a 4-point game at home so they are very capable of pulling off the upset. Pound Indiana State.

4* Major NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Marquette -6.5
Bottom Line: Marquette was kicked at St. John's last game, but the Golden Eagles have a history of bouncing back. In fact, they are 12-3 ATS following a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 11.7 points in these games. They are also 11-3 ATS off a loss to a conference foe over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 9.7 points in these games. Marquette lost the first meeting 69-57 at Butler so it will draw additional motivation from that loss. Bet Marquette.

4* Major Big East *BLOOD BATH* on DePaul +5.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Georgetown following Saturday's big win upset win over Michigan State. The Hoyas are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Bet DePaul.

5* Wiseguy MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State +1.5
Bottom Line: Kent State has been an outstanding underdog investment at 15-5 ATS in the role the last 2 seasons, and it will have no problem getting up for this game following an ugly loss to Northern Illinois. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons off an upset loss, winning by an average of 2.2 points in this spot. The Golden Flashes are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. Akron knocked Kent State out of last season's MAC tourney and went on to make the Big Dance, and the Golden Flashes will be out for payback.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* on Iowa State -8
Bottom Line: ISU is an impressive 32-17 ATS in home lined games under coach Fred Hoiberg, including 25-14 ATS as a home fave or pickem and 9-2 ATS in home February games. This last trend shows that the Cyclones are taking care of business at home in the heart of Big 12 play. They have won those 11 February contests by an average of 10.4 points.

4* Major AAC Game of the Week on SMU -2
Bottom Line: SMU is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Mustangs are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus Memphis. The Mustangs got caught looking ahead to this matchup and took a bad loss to USF. Now, they'll be even hungrier as they look to end a 2-game skid in the series.

5* Wiseguy MAAC Game of the Month (ESPNU) on Manhattan +2.5
Bottom Line: Iona lives and dies by the 3-point shot with 44% of its field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc this season. I expect it to die by it tonight as it goes up against a Manhattan team that defends the 3 very well, especially on the road where it has limited opponents to just 31.8%. The Jaspers are 6-0 ATS under Steve Masiello in contests 15 games or more in versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or more. Iona is a weak rebounding team, and that also puts it at a disadvantage tonight. The Jaspers are 8-0 ATS under Masiello in road games versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game. The road team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the Jaspers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Iona. Pound Manhattan.

4* Major Big Ten *SUREFIRE* on Purdue +12
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Michigan Wolverines following a huge win over rival Michigan State to take over sole possession of first in the Big Ten standings. The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall and 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Michigan. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Plays 15 games or more into the season on teams like Purdue that average 74-78 ppg has resulted in a 38-14 ATS record since 1997 if they have been held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games and are playing a team that allows 63-67 ppg. This system is 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on BYU -13
Bottom Line: Fading the Pacific Tigers as a road dog of 12.5 to 15.0 points has resulted in a perfect 10-0 ATS record the last 17 years. The Tigers have lost these contests by 20.3 points on average. Backing the BYU Cougars at home against marginal winning teams (51% to 60% win rate) has resulted in a perfect 6-0 ATS record the last 2 seasons. The Cougs have won these contests by 25.2 points on average. Pound BYU.

4* Major C-USA *BLOOD BATH* on Marshall -4
Bottom Line: Expect the FIU Golden Panthers to struggle as they step out on the road for the first time since Jan. 11. The Golden Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Marshall Thundering Herd were smacked at Louisiana Tech last game, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on Mississippi State +13.5
Bottom Line: The Florida Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 20 points, 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Playing against double-digit favorites off a blowout win of 20 points or more in conference play has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team that's off a double-digit loss in conference play.

4* Major Pac-12 Bailout (ESPNU) on Cal -6
Bottom Line: Cal is 10-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.1 points in these games. The total line is significant as it is a good indicator of what the books expect to happen. According to a total of 144, oddsmakers have Cal winning this game 75-69. Since ASU averages 76.6 ppg, clearly the books expect Cal to be able to slow the Sun Devils down with a defense that is allowing just 58.8 ppg at home. The Golden Bears are 18-3 ATS in home games when the total is 140 to 144.5 under Mike Montgomery. They have won these games by an average of 15.1 points.

5* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee -8
Bottom Line: It's bounce back time for Tennessee following Saturday's embarrassing loss at Florida. The Volunteers are 12-4 ATS under coach Cuonzo Martin off a loss to a conference opponent. They are also 9-2 ATS under Martin after a double-digit defeat. Pound Tennessee.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +4
Bottom Line: Home teams that average 74-78 ppg but were held to 60 points or less last game, in games that occur 15 games or more into the season, are 30-8 ATS the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less. Virginia has been rolling, but it's also been at home for 3 straight games. The Cavs are on a 2-10 ATS skid when they hit the road after 2 or more consecutive wins at home. Pound the Irish.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Georgetown +6.5
Bottom Line: Playing against January favorites that have won 80% or more of their games has resulted in a 111-82 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that has won 51% to 60% of their games. Nova is 2-10 ATS when playing a 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons and 18-33 ATS in road games after covering the number in 3 of their last 4 games since 1997. Georgetown is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home meeting against the Wildcats. Pound the Hoyas.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +1
Bottom Line: The Huskers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. They are 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pickem since 1997 and 14-2 ATS off a loss against a conference opponent over the last 2 seasons. Nebraska beat Ohio State in its last home game and played Michigan to a 1-point game in the home contest before that. The Huskers also defeat Minnesota the last time they hosted the Gophers. Pound Nebraska.

4* Major C-USA Game of the Week on East Carolina +8.5
Bottom Line: Playing against a favorite that's off a win of 10 points or more over a conference opponent has resulted in a 98-60 ATS record the last 5 seasons provided they have a win percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a win percentage of 51-60%. So. Miss is a soft 17-33 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams like ECU that average 77.0 ppg or more since 1997, and the Golden Eagles fall to 5-15 ATS in this situation when the game takes place 15 games or more into the season. Lastly, head coach Jeff Lebo's squads are 7-0 ATS lifetime after failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8. His teams have won by an average of 5.5 points in this spot.

4* Major AAC Game of the Week on Rutgers +6.5
Bottom Line: UConn is off a blowout win over Temple, but it is 28-49 ATS in road games off a home win of 10 points or more since 1997, winning by just 3.2 points in this spot. It is also 20-40 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games since 1997, winning by 2.3 points in this spot. The Scarlet Knights have been very competitive at home where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Year on Ole Miss -11.5
Bottom Line: Mississippi State has won two straight in the series, and that's not sitting well with rival Ole Miss. The Bulldogs won the season's first meeting by 4 points at home and they're catching double digits here? That's because they've been awful on the road, losing each of their 3 true road games this season by an average of 20 points. It's also worth mentioning that they lost by 18 at Ole Miss last season. When oddsmakers have installed Mississippi State as a double-digit dog, it's been for good reason. The Bulldogs are just 4-14 ATS under coach Ray when catching 10 points or more and have lost by an average of 21.0 points in these contests. The Bulldogs have won their last 2, but they are 0-6 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 13.2 points in this spot. Pound Ole Miss.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arizona State -4.5
Bottom Line: ASU has lost its last 2, but they came on the road to Arizona and UCLA, the 2 most talented teams in the league. Now the Sun Devils are back home where they are 9-1 on the season, and I expect them to bounce back strong. Under the direction of Herb Sendek, ASU is 31-15 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference foes. This system tightens up to a very impressive 9-1 ATS is both losses were by double digits. Pound ASU.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* (ESPN2) on Alabama +5.5
Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Florida, who has a big revenge game against Tennessee Saturday. This is a big revenge game for Alabama, who has lost 7 straight to the Gators. Alabama has been very competitive at home this season where it is 8-2 with the losses coming by just 5 and 3 points, respectively, to very good Wichita State and Xavier teams. The Gators are 1-10 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington State +2.5
Bottom Line: Look for Washington State to bounce back at home after a pair of rough outings on the road. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Bone, and they have won these games by an average of 8.6 points. Additionally, Oregon State is off a huge win over Oregon, and it has been a poor play following a win. The Beavers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory. Pound Washington State.