Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-18 | Washington v. California +12 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State. That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it. The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of. They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards. They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them. The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season. They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend. Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take Cal. |
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10-27-18 | Iowa +5.5 v. Penn State | 24-30 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5 The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season. The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football. And they really should be 7-0. They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns. This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday. The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers. Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC. That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC. Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa. |
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10-27-18 | Arizona State +3.5 v. USC | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5 The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah. That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards. I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now. They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way. Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards. The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game. They are much better than their record suggests. And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards. Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go. The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take Arizona State. |
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10-26-18 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 235 | 112-116 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Wizards/Kings NBA TV *BAILOUT* on OVER 235 The Key: The Wizards have been forced to go to a small lineup these last two games with Markieff Morris playing center. That’s because both Dwight Howard and Ian Mahinmi are out with injuries. And it’s no surprise that they have gone OVER the total in all 4 games this season, and the last 2 were the highest-scoring. They combined for 249 points with the Blazers two games back and 266 points with the Warriors last time out. And they should sail OVER this 235-point total with the Kings as well. The Kings are 4-1 to the OVER this season and trying to play at a faster place to utilize De’Aron Fox’s skill set. They have combined for 240, 278, 251 and 238 points in their 4 OVERS. All four of those numbers were higher than this 235-point total. Get ready for a shootout in Sacramento tonight. Take the OVER. |
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10-26-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night. The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl. And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business. The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday. Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss. The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards. Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown. Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels. Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point. It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State. The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season. I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take Colorado State. |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44 | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
6* Dolphins/Texans AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44 The Key: The Texans are primed for an offensive explosion tonight. They have played one of the toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses this season. But they went off for 37 points against the Colts a few weeks back, and they should go off again against a Miami defense that yields 25.3 PPG and 405 YPG this season. But the Dolphins have been able to put up some points on offense, even the last two weeks with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. They scored 31 against Chicago and 21 against Detroit. They even had over 500 total yards against a good Bears defense. They should help contribute to this OVER as well. The Dolphins are 7-0 OVER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 8-1 OVER off a non-conference game over the last 3 years. The Texans are 16-5 OVER in their last 21 games off 3 or more consecutive unders. I think the price is right to back the OVER tonight. Take the OVER. |
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10-25-18 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight. Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies. Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time. Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage. And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-25-18 | Blazers -3 v. Magic | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -3 The Key: This is a tough situation for the Magic. They are coming off a huge upset win over the Boston Celtics on the road. I can’t help but think they will have a letdown at home against Portland tonight. The Magic are just 18-40 ATS in their last 58 games following a victory. And the Magic haven’t been very good at home this year, going 1-1 with a 3-point win over a depleted Miami team, and a 32-point loss to Charlotte. The Blazers are coming off a loss that will have them focused. And they’ve gone 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with the Magic with an average victory of nearly 15 PPG. Take Portland. |
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10-24-18 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 234 | Top | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
7* Wizards/Warriors NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 234 The Key: The Wizards have to go small ball tonight because Dwight Howard didn’t make the trip West, and Ian Mahinmi left their last game with a back injury. The Wizards went with Markieff Morris at center in their small ball lineup against the Blazers after Mahinmi’s departure and it worked well. They eventually won 125-124 in overtime. The Warriors love going small themselves, so this should be a track meet tonight. The Warriors beat the Wizards 120-117 in their last meeting at Golden State. I think both teams top 120 points tonight. Washington head coach Scott Brooks even said prior to this game if you don’t score 120 it’s tough to win in today’s NBA. And all his players complimented the small ball approach. Take the OVER. |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -138 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series *CA$H COW* on Boston -135 The Key: The Dodgers just can’t seem to score enough runs to hang with the Red Sox. This Boston lineup is the best in baseball, and that’s been on display during their 5-game postseason winning streak. They scored at least 7 runs in 4 of those 5 wins, including the 8 they hung on the Dodgers last night. The Dodgers have scored 5 runs or fewer in 8 straight playoff games. David Price is 9-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 18 home starts this year for the Red Sox. He should be able to hold this Los Angeles lineup in check. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 8 home starts this year for the Dodgers. He will get hit early and often by the Red Sox in this one. The Dodgers are just 2-12 in Ryu’s last 14 road starts vs. at team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 41-11 in their last 52 interleague games. Take Boston. |
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10-24-18 | Hornets v. Bulls +4.5 | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls +4.5 The Key: The Bulls are hungry for their first win of the season tonight. They should get it as 4.5-point home dogs to the Hornets. Their last two losses have come by a combined 8 points to the Mavs and Pistons, so they’ve been close. And I like the price we are getting with the Bulls tonight. The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Hornets. Charlotte is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Hornets are 5-20 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 ATS over the last 3 years. The Bulls are 15-3 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 years. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Chicago. |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11.5 v. Nuggets | 112-126 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +11.5 The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot tonight. They are in letdown mode off their 100-98 upset win over the defending champion Warriors last time out. They won’t be nearly as hungry here tonight against the Kings, and that’s a problem when you’re being asked to lay 11.5 points. I think the Nuggets come out flat here and the Kings get the cover. The Kings are coming off a 131-120 upset road win of their own as 10.5-point underdogs against Russell Westbrook and the OKC Thunder. But they won’t have a letdown because beating the Thunder is not like beating the Warriors. The Kings are shooting 52.8% as a team this season as they’ve clearly improved dramatically on the offensive end, averaging 125.7 PPG. Take Sacramento. |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers +142 v. Red Sox | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
6* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +142 The Key: I like the price we are getting with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight over the Boston Red Sox. Kershaw is exercising his postseason demons with a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 3 playoff starts this year. Chris Sale has made it past the 5th innings just once in his last 7 starts, and that was only a 5 1/3-inning outing against the Yankees this postseason. Kershaw is 42-12 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Bet on him in these spots and you would be up +21.2 units over the last 2 years. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 54.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago. Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22. This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points. I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation. Take the UNDER. |
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10-22-18 | Suns +12.5 v. Warriors | 103-123 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Suns/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +12.5 The Key: The Phoenix Suns should be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have a young roster and have been stockpiling talent for years. That talent is about to come to fruition this season. They got DeAndre Ayton with the No. 1 pick in the draft and he’s a can’t-miss player. Devin Booker is becoming a star already. And the addition of Trevor Ariza gives them a leader in the locker room that they’ve desperately needed. All Ariza does is win everywhere he goes because he plays winning basketball. The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss in Denver last night. Playing in altitude will have certainly taken more out of them than in most normal back-to-back situations. Take Phoenix. |
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10-22-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense. They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs. That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win. And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game. As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league. And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons. But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense. They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season. They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them. The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game. The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games. Take New York. |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Bengals/Chiefs Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Kansas City -6 The Key: The Chiefs have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road this season, yet they’ve gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS. Oddsmakers just can’t seem to price them right. Their only loss was 40-43 to New England on the road last week. They should get right here against the Bengals. The Chiefs are 2-0 at home this season and an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 16-point win over the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Kansas City. |
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10-21-18 | Lions -3 v. Dolphins | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions -3 The Key: This is a great situation for the Detroit Lions Sunday. They are coming off their bye and feeling good after beating the Packers 31-23 going into their bye. They have gotten healthy and have been an underrated team, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They can get back to .500 on the season with a win here Sunday and will be hungry to do so. The Dolphins are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-2 start this season. But they’ve been winning with smoke and mirrors as all four wins were one-score games, and they came against the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bears. They stepped up in class and lost to the Patriots 7-38 and to the Bengals 17-27. The Lions crushed the Patriots earlier this season. Brock Osweiler will get the start against Sunday, and I’ll gladly fade him knowing that it’s unlikely he puts two good games in a row together. Matt Patricia will make life tough on Osweiler with two weeks to get ready to face him. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Dolphins are 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Detroit. |
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10-21-18 | Titans v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now. They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point. They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games. They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here. The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever. They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense. Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense. I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here. The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams. The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-20-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Blazers | 108-121 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
6* Spurs/Blazers Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio +4.5 The Key: The Spurs aren’t getting much respect early in the season. I don’t think they’re any worse off than they were last year. In fact, they should be better. The replaced Kawhi Leonard with DeMar DeRozan. Leonard played hardly at all last season, and DeRozan is healthy and still one of the best players in the NBA. The Spurs haven’t lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Blazers by more than 4 points. They are 7-3 SU in those 10 games with their 3 losses coming by 1, 1, and 4 points. Take San Antonio. |
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10-20-18 | USC v. Utah OVER 48 | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48 The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively. Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games. USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games. I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now. They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings. USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. Take the OVER. |
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10-20-18 | Alabama v. Tennessee +29 | 58-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here. And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols. The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites. They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama. Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980. There’s some value here with the Vols. Take Tennessee. |
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10-20-18 | UTEP +23.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday. They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out. North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance. They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season. But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers. LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week. That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB. The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games. They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value. Take UTEP. |
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10-20-18 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +4 | Top | 31-16 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already. The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already. And they just aren’t that good. They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites. And I question their motivation now with 3 losses. Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country. They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ole Miss. |
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma v. TCU +8 | 52-27 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad. Their loss to Texas Tech was. And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends. The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity. Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU. Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma. Take TCU. |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State +24 v. Boise State | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years. The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs. They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win. So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure. And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting. I just think Boise State is overrated right now. They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games. The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Colorado State. |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 8 The Key: The Dodgers and Brewers both have dynamite bullpens that make it tough to get runs across the plate. And there’s a lot to like about the Game 6 starters tonight. Wade Miley has pitched 18 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in 2018 alone. Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 17 consecutive starts, including zero runs in seven of them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts. The UNDER is 6-1 in Ryu’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Take the UNDER. |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -3 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
6* Celtics/Raptors ESPN *CA$H COW* on Toronto -3 The Key: Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Celtics and Raptors. The home team is 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings. The Raptors are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Celtics. This is a pretty cheap price to get the Raptors at tonight given the series history. Take Toronto. |
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10-18-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5 The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch. They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye. They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah. Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State. The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado. They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest. The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Take Stanford. |
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10-18-18 | Broncos -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread. I’ll take it. The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games. But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense. You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense. And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati. That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line. The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP. The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate. Take Denver. |
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10-18-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
6* Red Sox/Astros ALCS *CA$H COW* on Houston -1.5 (+110) The Key: Houston in a must-win game with Justin Verlander on the mound is the play here. They should have no problem winning by at least 2 runs against the Boston Red Sox due to their huge edge on the mound. Verlander is 18-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 36 starts this year. He is also 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Red Sox. David Price is 0-9 with a 6.16 ERA in 11 lifetime starts in the postseason. He has yielded 7 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his 2 postseason starts in 2018. Expect Price to get shelled once again by this hungry Houston lineup ready to break out. Take Houston on the Run Line. |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox +139 v. Astros | 8-6 | Win | 139 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
6* Red Sox/Astros ALCS *CA$H COW* on Boston +139 The Key: Rick Porcello came up big in Game 4 to close out the New York Yankees in the ALDS. He pitched 5 innings of 4-hit ball while allowing only one earned run without a walk to earn the victory. Porcello has been at his best not he road this season at 11-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 19 road starts. Charlie Morton hasn’t pitched since September 30th, and now he has to step into this pressure-packed situation with the Astros needing a victory nearly 3 weeks since throwing his last meaningful pitch. It’s a tough spot for Morton and I’ll gladly fade him. Morton has yielded 8 earned runs, 19 base runners and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings across 2 starts against Boston this season for a 6.97 ERA. The Red Sox are 21-5 off a win by 6 runs or more this season. The Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts. Take Boston. |
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10-17-18 | Cavs +13 v. Raptors | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland Cavaliers +13 The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavs without Lebron James. That’s why we will see some inflated numbers early in the season with them, and this is one of them. But the Cavs have some nice chemistry with Tryonn Lue entering his 4th year, and still plenty of talent with Kevin Love and company to remain competitive in the weak East. The Raptors are going through a system change with first-year head coach Nick Nurse, and they have to try and figure out how to make this new offense work now that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is gone. I think it will take some time before the Raptors are hitting on all cylinders, so they shouldn’t be laying 13 points to the Cavs in the opener. Take Cleveland. |
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10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Postseason Game of the Year on Los Angeles Dodgers -145 The Key: The Dodgers need a victory in Game 4 tonight at home to square this series. I think they get it thanks to their edge on the mound. Rich Hill comes in 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hill is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against the Brewers, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 2 starts against them in 2018. His teams have gone 7-1 in those 8 starts. Gio Gonzalez only pitched 2 innings in Game 1 and the Brewers nearly blew a big lead late giving up 4 runs in the final 2 innings. The Dodgers have had the luxury of seeing all of Milwaukee’s relievers now through 3 games. I think they’ll have some success today against Milwaukee when they turn to their bullpen after Gonzalez exits. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is 9-1 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 6-0 in Hill’s last 6 starts. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 210 | 87-105 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
6* 76ers/Celtics *Total* Annihilator on OVER 210 The Key: The 76ers were one of the best offensive teams in the Eastern Conference last season in averaging 110 PPG. They are loaded again and don’t put nearly as much emphasis on the defensive end. The Celtics had to play more defense last year because they were without their best 2 scores for much of the season in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, especially in the playoffs. But with Irving and Hayward back this should be one of the best offensive teams in the East. And Irving doesn’t play much defense. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston. The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 road games. Take the OVER. |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season. The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0. And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss. They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards. But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0. The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week. The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard. It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well. I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games. The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games. The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers. Take Green Bay. |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -170 | 4-0 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Brewers/Dodgers NLCS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -170 The Key: Walker Buehler has been lights out at home this season for the Dodgers. He is 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. He faced the Brewers at home back in late-July and yielded just one earned run in 7 innings. Jhoulys Chacin faced the Dodgers in LA back in early-August and gave up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-21 loss. The Dodgers have the superior starter on the mound in this one. The Dodgers are 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos UNDER 51.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Rams/Broncos Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UNDER 51.5 The Key: Weather reports in Denver are calling for snow and below 30 degree temperatures today. I think we see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley and the Broncos running back by committee in this one. Don’t expect Jared Goff and Case Keenum to be asked to do too much in these conditions. Denver is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games coming in. The UNDER is 9-3 in Rams lsat 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER. |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle. Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now. The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals. They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well. And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career. The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season. They get a dose of reality Sunday. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on OVER 57 The Key: It’s well documented that the Falcons have the worst injuries on defense of any team in the NFL this season. They are without 4 starters right now in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett and Ricardo Allen. Those are arguably their 4 best players on defense, too. So it’s no surprise they are playing in shootouts week after week. The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games overall with combined scores of 55, 80, 73 and 58 points. Their defense has allowed 43, 37 and 41 points the last 3 weeks. Now we’re seeing a total of 57, which would normally be high for most teams, but not the Falcons. They have an elite offense that has scored 31 or more points 3 of the last 4 weeks. And they’re up against a Bucs defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG and 446 YPG this season. The Bucs have been great on offense though, putting up 28 PPG and 433 YPG. And now Jameis Winston is ready to lead the offense off a bye. The Bucs and Falcons have combined for 54 or more points in 3 of their last 4 meetings. Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher. Take the OVER. |
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10-13-18 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 7 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
6* Astros/Red Sox ALCS *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7 The Key: I think Justin Verlander and Chris Sale are getting too much respect from the books here. And the books aren’t giving these offenses enough credit. It is the offenses that have led these teams to where they are today. These are the two best offenses in the American League. A total of 7 is simply too low for these two offenses in a hitter-friendly place like Fenway Park. Sale has yielded 15 earned runs in 18 innings in his last 3 starts against the Astros. The OVER is 3-0 in Sale’s last 3 starts against the Astros. The OVER is 3-0 in Verlander’s last 3 starts against the Red Sox. Take the OVER. |
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10-13-18 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7 | 37-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7 The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class. They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season. Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense. Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama. Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago. No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense. And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season. The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense. Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses. The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Arkansas. |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State +13.5 v. Penn State | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5 The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans. Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations. But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives. Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans. Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent. The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Michigan State. |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida v. Memphis +5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5 The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home. They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn. This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average. The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG. The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town. Take Memphis. |
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10-13-18 | Florida -7 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week. However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory. They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off. Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games. They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia. They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition. The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU. They continue rolling Saturday. Take Florida. |
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10-13-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State +7 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7 The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons. Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight. They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks. They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between. And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings. 4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings. That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats. Take Kansas State. |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week. The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks. The Utes took advantage. But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC. Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer. The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin. Take Arizona. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East. It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it. So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon. And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday. But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal. The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight. The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well. They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts. They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5. They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back. And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad. They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week. Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season. It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week. The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. Take New York. |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -7 | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7 The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites. Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around. And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country. Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss. I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet. And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight. They could be down to their third-stringer. Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year. Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU. Take TCU. |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Red Sox/Yankees AL *CA$H COW* on New York -120 The Key: C.C. Sabathia is 6-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 home starts this year. He has delivered time and time again when the Yankees have needed him most. He is even 6-0 with a 3.32 ERA in ALDS play lifetime and thrives in these spots. I trust him a lot more than Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 12 outings in the postseason, still in search of his first victory. He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in 4 playoff appearances with the Red Sox. Take New York. |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons. This one is all about strength of schedule for me. App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1. Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern. I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory. They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued. This is simply too many points tonight. Take Arkansas State. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them. Most write them off as just a mediocre team. But the numbers say otherwise. They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense. They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense. You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far. And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week. The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season. I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints. Take Washington. |
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10-08-18 | Dodgers -148 v. Braves | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
6* Dodgers/Braves NL *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -148 The Key: This all comes down to the fact that Rich Hill has dominated the Braves throughout his career, while Mike Foltynewicz has struggled mightily against the Dodgers. Hill has never lost to the Braves, going 5-0 with a. 1.76 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against them. Foltynewicz sports a 7.43 ERA in his 3 lifetime starts against the Dodgers while yielding 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. The Dodgers clinch the series with a victory in Game 4 tonight. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses. But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now. The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett. Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury. The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks. Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too. Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite. It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -3 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -3 The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. Oddsmakers just haven’t caught up with how good they are. And now as only 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars Sunday, I still don’t think they have adjusted enough. This is strength vs. strength. And the last 6 times the leagues No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense, the offense has won 5 times in the regular season. I’ll take the Chiefs’ offense over this Jacksonville defense, which has faced an awful slate of opposing offenses to this point. The Jaguars are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against excellent passing offenses that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Bets on teams who are coming off 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Kansas City. |
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10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Packers/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +1 The Key: The Green Bay Packers have some serious injuries right now at wide receiver. There’s no way they should be favored on the road over the Lions with these injuries. Devante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are all questionable to play this week for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers could be short on weapons. The Lions are actually 5-4 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Packers so they have figured them out. And this is a huge game for the Lions after a 1-3 start as they need a win to save their season. The beat the Patriots 26-10 at home in Week 3 to show that they can come up big in big games. And they were beating Dallas on the road last week until the last few seconds. Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent that’s off a loss by 3 points or less are 26-6 ATS since 1983. Take Detroit. |
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10-06-18 | UAB +9.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
6* Conference USA Game of the Day on UAB +9.5 The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are coming off their two biggest games of the season over the last two weeks. They only trailed 24-21 at LSU before eventually losing 21-38. And then last week they upset North Texas 29-27 as 7.5-point road underdogs. The Mean Green missed two fourth quarter field goals to aid their cause. Now this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bulldogs, and they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers as 9.5-point favorites against a good UAB team. This is a UAB squad that is 3-1 this season and coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Charlotte, which followed up an upset win over Tulane. UAB beat LA Tech 23-22 as 9.5-point home underdogs last year. They have 16 starters back from that squad and continue to be underrated here. The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take UAB. |
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10-06-18 | SMU +24.5 v. Central Florida | 20-48 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
6* AAC Game of the Day on SMU +24.5 The Key: Bettors are starting to have to pay a tax to back UCF. The Knights are 17-0 dating back to last season and have been covering machines. Now they’re 24.5-point home favorites over SMU this week. SMU has 14 starters back from a team that only lost 24-31 at home to UCF as 14.5-point dogs last year. SMU has picked up back-to-back nice wins against Navy 31-30 and Houston Baptist 63-27. They also only lost by 25 at Michigan as 36.5-point underdogs, and hung tough with TCU for a half. They are capable of hanging with UCF enough to stay within this 24.5-point spread today. Sonny Dykes is 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins as a head coach. Take SMU. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa State +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 48-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road. And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them. Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet. And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played. And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable. And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys. They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits. The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Iowa State. |
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10-06-18 | Ohio v. Kent State +12 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MAC Game of the Day on Kent State +12 The Key: Both Kent State and Ohio have a common opponent in Howard. Kent State beat Howard 54-14 as 9-point home favorites and outgained them by 241 yards. Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites and was outgained by 220 yards in that contest. And somehow Ohio State is laying double-digits on the road to Kent State? Give me a break. The Golden Flashes have a vastly improved offense this season. They should be able to torch an Ohio defense that is yielding 38.2 points and 518 yards per game this season. Frank Solich is 2-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached. Take Kent State. |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +10 v. Michigan State | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +10 The Key: I believe Northwestern to be undervalued right now due to a 1-3 start and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak. After beating Purdue in their opener, they were upset by both Duke and Akron, but they outgained Duke by 80 yards and Akron by 124. And last week they nearly upset Michigan in a 17-20 home loss. I like the price we are getting with the Wildcats, who should not be 10-point underdogs to an overrated Michigan State team. The Spartans barely beat Utah State 38-31 as 23.5-point home favorites in their opener. And they only won 31-20 over Central Michigan as 27.5-point home favorites last week. If those two teams can hang with the Spartans, Northwestern can as well. Northwestern is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Michigan State despite being the underdog in all 4 contests. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Michigan State. Take Northwestern. |
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10-05-18 | Utah State +2 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke. They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force. And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU. Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off. They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington. It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards. I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games. The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense. Take Utah State. |
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10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers -156 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Rockies/Brewers National League *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee -156 The Key: The Brewers have the clear edge on the mound tonight over the Rockies. Jhoulys Chacin sports a 3.50 ERA in 35 starts this season. He also sports a 3.32 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the Rockies. Tyler Anderson sports a 5.02 ERA in 15 road starts this season. He is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Brewers. The Rockies are just 2-10 in Anderson’s last 12 starts. Colorado is 0-5 in Anderson’s last 5 road starts. The Brewers are 12-1 following 2 consecutive wins by 2 runs or less this season. The Brewers are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall. Take Milwaukee. |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts. They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans. And they now have to travel to New England. Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them. And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight. The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts. They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG. Enough said. Take New England. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 70.5 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Tulsa/Houston AAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 70.5 The Key: There’s value with the UNDER tonight when you look at the series history between these teams. The last 7 meetings between Tulsa and Houston have all seen 69 or fewer combined points. They’ve averaged 60.6 combined PPG in those 7 meetings. And I think we are getting about 10 points of value on this UNDER tonight. Both Houston and Tulsa have better defenses than they get credit for. And Tulsa’s offense is way down this season. Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER. |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees -170 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
7* A’s/Yankees Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -170 The Key: I’m laying the big price with the Yankees today because they’re worth it. They have the better lineup, the better starter and the better bullpen. And they’re at home. They have the edge in all of the key categories heading into this game. Luis Severino is 10-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 15 home starts this season, which is very impressive at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s easy to see why the Yankees went with him as their starter. He’ll be backed up by plenty of bullpen depth and some big arms. The A’s are going with a complete bullpen game as Liam Hendriks gets the first crack. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff home games. New York is 6-0 in its last 6 games following an off day. The Yankees are 22-4 in Severino’s last 26 starts. The A’s are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff road games. Take New York. |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
7* Cubs/Rockies National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -135 The Key: Jon Lester has pitched in several elimination games. He won’t be phased, especially with how well he has pitched here down the stretch. Lester sports a 1.71 ERA in his last 8 starts while yielding only 9 earned runs in 47 1/3 innings. And he owns the Rockies, sporting a 1.91 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against them. Kyle Freeland won’t be up to the task tonight. This is a very tough travel spot for the Rockies as they went flew from Denver Sunday night to Los Angeles, and now they had to fly all the way to Chicago Monday night. Lester is 20-6 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Cubs are 38-13 in Lester’s last 51 home starts. The Rockies are 1-8 in their last 9 playoff games. Take Chicago. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 The Key: The Chiefs have been unstoppable on offense thus far. They are scoring 39.3 PPG and averaging 398 YPG. Patrick Mahomes has already thrown 13 TD passes without an interception. I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from the Broncos this week. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70% of their passes against Denver’s defense this year and they’re giving up 263 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt. Case Keenum has actually been pretty good as he’s leading a Denver offense that is averaging 383 yards per game and 6.0 YPP. The Chiefs are giving up 30.7 PPG, 474 YPG and 6.9 YPP as they’re the worst defense in the league to this point. They are allowing 363 PYPG and 7.7 yards per attempt. Expect more offensive fireworks tonight between these two teams. The OVER is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 Monday games. The OVER is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Monday games. The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the OVER. |
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09-30-18 | Braves -132 v. Phillies | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Braves -132 The Key: The Braves are still alive for the 2nd seed. They still need to win today to have any shot at it, which would give them home-field advantage in the divisional round. The Phillies are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and won’t offer much resistance. They’ve been outscored 49-11 in their last 6 games coming in. Ranger Suarez is 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in 2 starts this year for the Phillies, yielding 12 runs, 8 earned and 20 base runners in 9 innings. The Braves should be able to light him up. The Braves are 7-1 in Kevin Gausman’s last 8 starts as he has pitched well for them since being traded. The Phillies are 1-12 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Atlanta. |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Day on New York Jets +7.5 The Key: The Jaguars managed just 6 points last week in a loss to the Titans at home. They have some key injuries right now that won’t help them the rest of the way. They lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a torn ACL. And Blake Bortles just doesn’t have many weapons outside. Leonard Fournette is still banged up. I just don’t think Jacksonville can be laying these kinds of prices with how poor their offense is. And the Jets are in a good spot here with extra rest having played last Thursday in a tough loss at Cleveland. They’ll be looking to bounce back here and have played well in their two road games, also winning 48-17 at Detroit. The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 September games. Take New York. |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 52.5 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
7* NFL Total of the Month on Bengals/Falcons OVER 52.5 The Key: The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, especially when they are playing at home. They are averaging 34 points and 424 yards per game at home this year in their two contests. They should light it up against a Bengals defense that is giving up 26 points and 394 yards per game this season. And the Bengals have clearly improved offensively this season averaging 30 points and 366 yards per game. They should be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that is giving up 28 points and 402 yards per game. The Falcons have so many injuries right now that on defense. They are without 3 starters in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen. The Falcons are 6-0 OVER in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 9-1 OVER in home games with a total of 49.5 or more over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 7-0 OVER after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 years. Take the OVER. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on Houston Texans +1 The Key: The Texans need a win and should get one here Sunday against a Colts team that they are clearly betting than. The Texans are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game this season, so they are clearly better than their 0-3 record. The Colts are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and are fortunate to be 1-2 as they have the stats of an 0-3 team. The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4. The Colts are 2-6 in their last 8 against the AFC South. The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Houston. |
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09-29-18 | Braves +146 v. Phillies | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Braves +146 The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Braves today. They should not be underdogs to the Phillies in this matchup. The Braves are still trying to get the 2nd seed in the National League. They are tied with the Rockies for that seed. It’s big because whoever is 2nd gets home-field advantage in the divisional round. And the Phillies have already packed it in, so even though Aaron Nola is starting for them, they cannot be favored in this situation. The Phillies are 0-9 in their last 9 games overall. They have lost their last 5 games by a combined score of 49-8. Yet they’re favored here. Enough said. Take Atlanta. |
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09-29-18 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan -3 | 26-23 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MAC Game of the Day on Eastern Michigan -3 The Key: The Eagles Michigan Eagles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as only 3-point favorites over Northern Illinois. This is a team that has gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and continue to be a covering machine. They have showed their mettle with a 20-19 win at Purdue as 15-point dogs, a 28-35 road loss to a very good Buffalo team, and a 20-23 road loss to a very good San Diego State as 10.5-point dogs over the last 3 weeks. They should be able to handle this down NIU team that is 1-3 with three double-digits losses. Their only win was a 24-16 win over Central Michigan as 13.5-point favorites. That’s a Central Michigan team that lost 31-7 at home to Kansas. The Huskies have been embarrassing on offense this year, averaging just 14 PPG, 236 YPG and 3.5 YPP. It doesn’t get any worse than that. The Eagles are 11-1 ATS off a game where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Take Eastern Michigan. |
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09-29-18 | Michigan v. Northwestern +15 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +15 The Key: Northwestern is primed for a big game Saturday. The Wildcats have been steaming for two weeks following their upset loss to Akron in which the Zips had 3 defensive touchdowns. They outgained Akron by 124 yards. And they lost to Duke the week before despite outgaining them by 80 yards. This is a Wildcats team that had high expectations coming into the season. Not all is lost yet, and they have a chance to make a statement here Saturday and improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play. Michigan is getting too much respect from the books. They lost at Notre Dame in the opener, but have reeled off 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska since. Big deal. They will get more of a fight than they are expecting here from the Wildcats. Michigan is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games coming in. The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Wildcats are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Take Northwestern. |
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09-29-18 | Baylor +24 v. Oklahoma | 33-66 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +24 The Key: Oklahoma is coming off a shocking 28-21 (OT) victory against Army last week. The Black Knights played a great game and played keep away from the Sooners. They held the ball for nearly 45 minutes compared to just over 15 for the Sooners. I think that effort will have Oklahoma’s defense taxed this week, and Baylor can take advantage. Remember last year Baylor nearly upset Oklahoma in a 41-49 home loss as 27.5-point underdogs. And this Baylor team is much better than that one, while Oklahoma is not as good as last year. The Bears have opened 3-1 with their only loss to unbeaten Duke. They have outgained all four of their opponents this season, including Duke. Bets on road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent with 4 or more starters returning than an opponent, plus a returning QB starter against a team with a new QB are 31-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Baylor. |
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09-29-18 | Virginia +6 v. NC State | 21-35 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6 The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia. He clearly has his best team yet. The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs. They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites. They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites. And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites. Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG. NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball. After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers. Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Virginia. |
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09-29-18 | UL-Lafayette +49.5 v. Alabama | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations. They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week. They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score. The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter. That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread. Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992. Take UL-Lafayette. |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +15 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year. The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule. I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis. This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week. If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home. And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites. The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more. The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years. Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall. Take Tulane. |
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09-28-18 | Yankees -128 v. Red Sox | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Yankees/Red Sox AL East *CA$H COW* on New York -128 The Key: The Yankees can clinch home field in the wild card game with a win Friday against their bitter rivals in the Red Sox. They have a lot to play for here and will be hungry. The Red Sox have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason and don’t need to try at all these last few games. That’s probably why they are starting Brian Johnson, who is 0-1 with a 7.21 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Johnson sports a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP lifetime against New York. J.A. Haps is 6-2 with a 2.29 ERA in 11 road starts this year. Happ is 1-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his last 3 starts and wants to continue to prove that he deserves to start the wild card game. Few starters have had the success that Happ has against the Red Sox. He is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 19 lifetime starts against Boston. Happ is 8-0 against the money line in September road games over the last 3 years. The Yankees are 8-2 in Hap’s last 10 starts. Take New York. |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week. But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight. And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start. But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season. Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year. Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight. The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss. The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall. Take Minnesota. |
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09-27-18 | Braves -112 v. Mets | 1-4 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Atlanta Braves -112 The Key: The Braves still have a chance to get the No. 2 seed in the National League. They have just a one-game lead over the Rockies for that spot, which would result in home-field advantage in the divisional round. So despite the fact that they’ve already clinched the division, they still have a lot to play for. And the Braves have been striving for that No. 2 seed as they are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. The Braves have the clear edge on the mound with Julio Teheran, who is 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts this year. Teheran is 9-6 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 lifetime starts against the Mets. Jason Vargas is 6-9 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 19 starts this season. Vargas is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Braves. Take Atlanta. |
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09-26-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -102 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
7* Brewers/Cards NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis -102 The Key: It’s time for the Cardinals to make a stand tonight. They have lost the first 2 games of this series to the Brewers and now are a half-game behind the Rockies in the race for the final wild card. It’s getting to must-win time for the Cardinals, and I expect them to deliver tonight. I like what I’ve seen from John Gant, who is 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA in 18 starts this year. Jhoulys Chacin has never been able to figure out the Cardinals. He is 1-7 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them. Milwaukee is 15-28 off 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 after losing the first 2 games of a series. St. Louis is 4-1 in Gants’ last 5 starts. Take St. Louis. |
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09-25-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125) The Key: The Dodgers have really come to life here down the stretch to try to secure the NL West title. They are 10-2 in their last 12 games overall. Now they’re up against the Diamondbacks, who have been eliminated from the postseason and are playing like it. Arizona is just 1-8 in its last 9 games overall with 7 of those 8 losses coming by 2 runs or more. I believe the Dodgers will win by at least 2 runs tonight as well due to their big edge on the mound. Walker Buehler is 7-4 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 21 starts this year. He gave up just 1 run with 9 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against Arizona this season on September 2nd. Matt Koch is 5-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 12 starts for the Diamondbacks this year and will be making his first start since June 19th, so he’s sure to be on a pitch count. The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 3-13 in this last 16 vs. a right-handed starter. Take Los Angeles. |
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09-24-18 | Steelers -1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 3 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay. But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs. But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league. The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles. Their perception is through the roof right now. They are overvalued. Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams. They have the better defense and the better offense. And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year. Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one. Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers. The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-24-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -150 | 6-4 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -150 The Key: The Cardinals have a one game lead on the Rockies for the 2nd wild card spot and trail the Brewers by 2 games for the top spot. They have a big week ahead of them, starting with Game 1 here against the Brewers tonight. I like their chances of getting a win with ace Jack Flaherty on the mound. He is 8-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts this year with 174 strikeouts in 143 innings. Flaherty is 4-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts. He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Brewers as well. Dan Jennings will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers. They will use their bullpen for this game. St. Louis is 15-2 in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs this season. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Take St. Louis. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7 v. Rams | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now. They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already. And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team. The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles. And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team. The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Take the Chargers. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Cardinals -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 115 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+115) The Key: The Cardinals should have no problem winning by 2 runs or more today over the hapless San Francisco Giants. The Cards have won 5 of their last 6 as they try to make the postseason as either a wild card or an NL Central title. And now they have a big edge on the mound over the Giants, who have nothing to play for. Miles Mikolas is 7-4 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 home starts this year. Andrew Suarez is 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 14 road starts. Mikolas is 10-1 in day games this season with the Cards winning by 2.4 RPG on average. Take St. Louis on the Run Line. |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 102 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
6* Bengals/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much love now after their 2-0 start. But they were outgained by 50 yards by the Colts and by 52 yards by the Ravens. They are fortunate to be 2-0. The Panthers will be hungry for a win here off their loss to the Falcons last week. They beat the Cowboys 16-8 at home in Week 1 and are a great home team. RB Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict and C Billy Price will all beat out for the Bengals this week. The Panthers are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 games off a road loss. Ron Rivera is an incredible 20-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina. The Panthers are winning by 7.8 PPG in this spot. Take Carolina. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
6* Broncos/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -5 The Key: The Ravens are in a supreme spot here. They have an extra 3 days of rest and preparation after losing to the Bengals on the road last Thursday. Now they return home fresh and ready to go. They beat the Bills 47-3 at home in Week 1 and have a big home-field advantage. The Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time after narrow home wins over the Raiders and Seahawks by a combined 4 points. I believe the Broncos to be overvalued off their 2-0 start. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Denver. Take Baltimore. |
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09-22-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) The Key: The Cubs will be hungry for a win today, especially off back-to-back losses, including their 10-4 loss to the White Sox yesterday. But now the Cubs have the clear edge on the mound tonight and will win this game by 2 runs or more because of it. Jon Lester is in postseason form. The left-hander has been terrific in his last 6 starts, going 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA. Lucas Giolito is 3-6 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 14 home starts for the White Sox this season. It’s amazing he’s been able to keep his job in the rotation all season because he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Lester has been at his best on the road this year, going 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 road starts. Lester has won each of his last 2 starts against the White Sox while yielding just 3 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. The Cubs are 32-7 in Lester’s last 39 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and they’re winning by 2.5 RPG on average in this spot. Lester is 56-9 as a favorite of -200 or more lifetime with his teams winning by 3.2 RPG. Take the Cubs on the Run Line. |
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09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas +3.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season. They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement. They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too. TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week. I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role. He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops. Take Texas. |
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09-22-18 | Kansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers. That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today. Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year. And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago. Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively. Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday. Take Baylor. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson -16 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point. But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket. They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings. They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday. The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them. Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well. This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse. Take Clemson. |
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09-22-18 | Akron v. Iowa State -20 | 13-26 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week. They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime. But then the craziness happened. The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34. Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win. The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs. They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season. The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more. Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog. The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win. Take Iowa State. |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7 | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country. The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3. All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites. Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41. And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday. Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season. They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss. The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year. The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall. Take Wake Forest. |
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09-21-18 | Reds v. Marlins +130 | 0-1 | Win | 130 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins +130 The Key: No starter in baseball has had more drastic splits over a big sample size than Wei-Yin Chen this season. He has been awful on the road, but he has been Cy Young-caliber at home. Chen is 5-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. I love the price here getting the Marlins as home dogs against the Reds with Chen on the mound. Neither team has much to play for other than price. Luis Castillo is 4-7 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 16 road starts this year. The Reds are 8-22 in their last 30 road games. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 home meetings with Cincinnati. Take Miami. |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +13.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016. And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them. FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense. The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force. They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort. UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State. The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense. The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite. The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition. The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons. However, I believe they are favored for a reason here. They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them. They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut. This Browns defense is loaded. Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL. This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games. The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company. Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor. That will be the difference in this game. Take Cleveland. |
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09-20-18 | Angels v. A's -125 | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
6* Angels/A’s AL West *CA$H COW* on Oakland A’s -125 The Key: The A’s have a lot to play for right now as they are trying to secure a wild card spot. They should be bigger favorites over the Angels because of it. They won 10-0 yesterday and should have another big game offensively against Matt Shoemaker. Edwin Jackson has been a blessing for the A’s, going 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts this year. Jackson is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Angels, yielding just 2 earned runs and 15 base runners in 21 1/3 innings. The A’s are 12-1 in Jackson’s 13 starts vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse this season. The A’s are 47-12 in their last 59 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Oakland. |