10-23-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -128 v. Kansas City Royals |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-128 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -128
The Key: David Price will pick up his first postseason win today. He should have had a win in Game 2, but his defense let him down in the 7th inning after he had pitched six shutout innings in Kansas City. This guy is still one of the best in the business, and he's been special on the road this year at 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts. Price is 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Royals. Yordano Ventura is 13-9 with a 4.25 ERA this year, and 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three postseason starts. I love the way the Blue Jays have responded in these elimination games this postseason, going 4-0 with all four victories coming by at least 3 runs apiece. They'll live to fight another day after a Game 6 victory. Take Toronto.
|
10-23-15 |
Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 |
Top |
66-42 |
Loss |
-106 |
42 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5
The Key: The Memphis Tigers are in a very bad spot here. They are coming off their biggest win in program history over Ole Miss last week. It was their 13th straight victory, and this team is clearly overvalued as a result. I don't expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward against Tulsa in this one. The Golden Hurricane are only 1-3 in their last four games, but the three losses came to Oklahoma, Houston and ECU. They were competitive in all three games with losses to both the Sooners and Cougars by 14 points, and then a 13-point loss to the Pirates where they actually held a 463-382 yard edge. The Golden Hurricane clearly have the offense to score at will on this soft Memphis defense. QB Dane Evans and company are averaging 550.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play behind the expertise of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Tulsa will be amped up for this home game on ESPN. The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings with the Tigers. Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two straight wins. Take Tulsa.
|
10-22-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers |
|
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
|
6* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5
The Key: Both teams are 2-4 and in need of a victory this week. I just believe the Seahawks are going to want it more, and they are more equipped to win this game in a blowout because they are simply better in all phases than the 49ers. The Seahawks would be 6-0 if they could hold on to a 4th quarter lead. All four of their losses have come after they have held the lead in the 4th quarter. I look for Pete Carroll to emphasize finishing in this one, and for his players to respond. This may be a close game early, but I expect the Seahawks to pull away in the second half. The 49ers simply aren't very good this year. They rank 31st in point differential (-10.0 PPG) and 32nd in yardage differential (-87.8 YPG), so you could make the case that they're the worst team in the NFL. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the 49ers, outscoring them by an average of 14.3 PPG. They won both meetings last year by double-digits. Take Seattle.
|
10-22-15 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State UNDER 62 |
Top |
13-31 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Thursday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on Georgia Southern/Appalachian State UNDER 62
The Key: I like this UNDER quite a bit for a couple reasons. The first is that both teams run the football a lot as Georgia Southern averages 56 attempts per game while Appalachian State averages 47. Both teams are good at stopping the run too as Georgia Southern gives up 136 rushing yards per game (3.9 YPC) and Appalachian State yields 109 rushing yards per game (3.2/carry). The Mountaineers have only given up 6.0 points per game against all teams outside of Clemson. These teams have combined for 59 or fewer points in each of their three meetings over the last three years, and an average of 53.0 PPG. Appalachian State is 5-1 UNDER in all games this season with 51 or fewer combined points in five of six. Take the UNDER.
|
10-21-15 |
New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs -115 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Mets/Cubs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -115
The Key: The Cubs know that if they can just get through this game, they'll have a fighting chance because they'll have Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta for the next two games. They aren't going to lay down for the Mets in this one. Jason Hammel has been an effective starter all season at 10-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 32 starts. He also shut down the Mets in his only start against them, giving up just one earned run in 8 innings back in May at home. Steven Matz gave up 3 runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings against the Dodgers last series. The Cubs can get to him and will tonight. The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Mets. If a couple bounces go their way last night, they would have won that game, too. Take Chicago.
|
10-20-15 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State OVER 57.5 |
|
27-37 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
6* Lafayette/Arkansas State *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 57.5
The Key: This total has been bet down from 63.5 to 57.5 and I believe it's going in the wrong direction. There is now plenty of value in backing the OVER in this game as a 31-28 final will do the trick. I look for both teams to at least get to 28 in this high-scoring affair. Last year, these teams combined for 95 points in a 55-40 win by Lafayette. Both offenses are averaging over 30 points per game this season with Lafayette putting up 30.8 and Arkansas State averaging 33.5. The Arkansas State offense is especially explosive, but QB Freddi Knighten has missed three games due to injury. Knighten returned last week to lead the Red Wolves to a 49-31 win at South Alabama. Both defenses aren't very good again this season as Lafayette yields 32.4 points per game, while Arkansas State gives up 32.0 points per contest. The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER off a conference game over the last two seasons. Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER in the second half of the season the last two years. The Red Wolves are 7-0 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years. Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game the last three seasons. Take this 27-0 angle backing the OVER straight to the bank. Take the OVER.
|
10-20-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -144 |
Top |
14-2 |
Loss |
-144 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Blue Jays -144
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays put up 11 runs on the Royals yesterday to get back into this series. I look for those hot bats to continue tonight against Chris Young and the Royals in Game 4. Young is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Toronto. R.A. Dickey has been dominant at home this season, especially of late, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA in his last eight home starts. Dickey is also 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals. His knuckleball has gotten better here down the stretch and will fool these Kansas City hitters after facing flame-thrower Marcus Stroman last night. The Blue Jays are 12-3 in Dickey's last 15 starts overall and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Take Toronto.
|
10-19-15 |
NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -4 |
Top |
7-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles have simply owned Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants over the past several years. They have gone 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Giants after sweeping the season series last year, which included a 27-0 beat down in Philadelphia. The Giants need a late score to put away the lowly 49ers 30-27 at home last week. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and injuries certainly have not helped matters. They rank last in the NFL against the pass in giving up 304.2 yards per game. Sam Bradford threw for 333 yards as the Eagles racked up 519 total yards against the Saints in a 39-17 home victory last week. It appears the Eagles have finally turned the corner and I expect them to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football. Take Philadelphia.
|
10-19-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -160 |
|
8-11 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -160
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays trailed 2-0 to the Texas Rangers in the ALDS and managed to win three straight elimination games to win the series. This team is clearly a resilient bunch, and I expect them to show that resiliency again as they trail 2-0 to the Royals after losing the first two games in Kansas City. Now they get back home where they will be a lot more comfortable. It also helps that they have Marcus Stroman on the mound, who has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 6 starts this year. Stroman held the Royals to one run in 6 innings in his only lifetime start against them last year. Kansas City goes with Johnny Cueto, who is 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA since joining the Royals. The Royals are 1-6 in Cueto's last 7 road starts, while the Blue Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's last 7 starts overall. Take Toronto.
|
10-18-15 |
Chicago Cubs -159 v. New York Mets |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-159 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -159
The Key: Backing Jake Arrieta is never a bad idea. All he's done is post a 0.83 ERA in his last 15 starts overall while also going 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last 16 road starts. Not to mention Arrieta has owned the Mets, going 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against them. The Cubs are 14-0 this season when Arrieta is a road favorite of -110 or more. They haven't lost and aren't about to start losing in this huge Game 2 Sunday night. Take Chicago.
|
10-18-15 |
San Diego Chargers +11 v. Green Bay Packers |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11
The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries. It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later. Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record. San Diego is 1-4 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 5-0 ATS. The Packers might be the most overvalued team in the league right now. They should not have covered last week as 9-point favorites in a 24-10 win over the Rams. The Rams had their last five possessions in Green Bay territory, but came away with zero points. They missed three field goals and had two interceptions. San Diego has the kind of offense that will keep them in this game for four quarters. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he's leading the Chargers to an average of 410.0 yards per game. This will be by far the best passing offense that the Packers have been up against, and the best offense in general. Take San Diego.
|
10-18-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
|
27-23 |
Loss |
-101 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
6* NFC Game of the Week on Seattle Seahawks -7
The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries. It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later. Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record. Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS this season, while Carolina is 3-1 ATS. The Panthers are also 4-0 and overvalued as a result. They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL with their four opponents in Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay combining for a 5-15 record. Seattle has played one of the toughest schedule with its three road losses coming against Green Bay, St. Louis and Cincinnati, who are a combined 12-3. The Seahawks are 28-2 at home over the past four seasons and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Take Seattle.
|
10-18-15 |
Washington Redskins v. NY Jets -6.5 |
|
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 5 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on New York Jets -6.5
The Key: The New York Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. They have opened up 3-1 with impressive double-digit wins over Cleveland (31-10) at home and Indianapolis (20-7) and Miami (27-14) on the road. Their only loss came at home to Philadelphia (17-24) in a game that they should have won. They outgained the Eagles by 92 yards for the game but gave up an 89-yard punt return TD that was the difference. They have actually outgained all four of their opponents. They are averaging a respectable 356.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 13.7 points and 280.2 yards per game. The Jets actually rank 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 76.0 yards per game. Only the Patriots have been better. Now they take on a deflated Washington team that just lost in overtime at Atlanta last week. But that game wasn't as close as the final score as the Redskins got a defensive touchdown and were outgained by 148 yards by the Falcons. The Jets are fresh and ready to go as they are coming off their bye week. The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take New York.
|
10-17-15 |
Chicago Cubs +110 v. New York Mets |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago +110 The Key: The Chicago Cubs have the clear advantage on the mound in this one in my opinion. Jon Lester has only gotten stronger as the season has gone on. He has given up 3 or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts and sports a 2.42 ERA and 0.627 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Lester has been at his best on the road with a 2.99 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 13 road starts. Matt Harvey was shaky in his first postseason start against the Dodgers, giving up 3 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings and was fortunate to get a ton of run support. That's not going to happen today. Lester is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 3 lifetime start against New York, and his teams are 3-0 having never lost. The Cubs are 7-0 in seven meetings with the Mets this season. Take Chicago.
|
10-17-15 |
Missouri +14.5 v. Georgia |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri +14.5
The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against any SEC team right now. They are down in the dumps after losing the last two weeks to Alabama and Tennessee. After losing 10-38 at home to Bama, they blew a 21-point lead to Tennessee and lost 31-38 on the road last week. Now they are without their best player in Nick Chubb for the rest of the season. This is going to be a defensive battle with Missouri and one that favors the underdog with a total set of just 46 points. Missouri has one of the best defenses in the country, givin gup 13.5 points and 275.8 yards per game. The Tigers are really good against the run, allowing 113 yards per game and 2.9 per carry. Georgia is a one-dimensional running team that struggles to throw the football due to poor QB play. Missouri wants revenge from a 34-0 loss last year to Georgia in which it gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers. The Tigers won 41-26 in their last visit to Georgia in 2013. Missouri is 6-0 ATS off a loss over the last 3 seasons, coming back to win by 16.3 PPG. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years. Take Missouri.
|
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7 v. Michigan |
|
27-23 |
Win
|
101 |
15 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +7
The Key: Michigan State is an underdog for the first time this season. I'll gladly back the Spartans in this underdog role as they'll come out with something to prove for the first time this year. After all, Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Michigan, so it has had the Wolverines' number and has to feel disrespected that it is an underdog here. Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the land because of what it has done recently against some extremely soft competition. The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or less yards per carry, and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off two straight conference wins. Take Michigan State.
|
10-17-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -3 |
|
31-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* ACC Saturday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech -3
The Key: After going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are hungry for a victory. They have played a brutal schedule during this stretch with 3 road games against Notre Dame, Duke and Clemson. But now they return home where they are outscoring opponents by 37.0 points per game this season. Head coach Paul Johnson has said that his players need to get back to the basics, and that means a tough week of practice that will have the Yellow Jackets firing on all cylinders Saturday against Pittsburgh. The Panthers aren't used to preparing for the triple-option, and that will be an advantage to the Yellow Jackets in this one. Georgia Tech is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games following a loss by 17 points or more. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Georgia Tech.
|
10-17-15 |
Louisville +7 v. Florida State |
Top |
21-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7
The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have really impressed me this season. They have been in every game they've played, but they are just 2-3 on the year. They lost to Auburn 24-31, Houston 31-34, and Clemson 17-20 to open the season. But they have rebounded nicely since, beating Sanford 45-3 at home before going on the road and topping NC State 20-13. So, they haven't lost a game yet this season by more than a touchdown. That's key because they are catching a TD against Florida State, which may be the most overrated team in the country. FSU has escaped with wins each of the last three weeks 14-0 over Boston College, 24-16 at Wake Forest, and 29-24 at home against Miami. I believe Louisville is better than all three of those teams. The Cardinals are off their bye week, so they will have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Seminoles. They have had this game circled all offseason fter blowing a 21-7 halftime lead to FSU last year to lost 31-42. Louisville is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a conference game. The Cardinals are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 road games. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Louisville.
|
10-17-15 |
Ole Miss -10.5 v. Memphis |
|
24-37 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Ole Miss -10.5
The Key: Ole Miss is by far the superior team in this matchup with Memphis. The Rebels have no margin for error if they want to accomplish their ultimate goal, which is making the 4-team playoff. They have the talent to do it and actually come in undervalued in this game because of their loss to Florida a few weeks back. But make no mistake, this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they proved that with their 43-37 win at Alabama. Memphis is overvalued due to its 5-0 start against an extremely easy schedule. The Tigers have put up huge offensive numbers, but now they run into an Ole Miss defense that is only allowing 19.7 points per game. But the key will be the Ole Miss' offense scoring almost every time it touches the ball. The Rebels are averaging 40.6 points per game this season. They'll be up against a soft Memphis defense that allows 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game. Ole Miss beat Memphis 24-3 last year and outgained the Tigers by 322 yards, limiting them to only 104 yards of offense. The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games, and 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Take Ole Miss.
|
10-16-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -114 v. Kansas City Royals |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
6* Blue Jays/Royals ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -114
The Key: Marco Estrada is going under the radar despite having a great season with the Blue Jays. He's 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 29 starts this year. He has gotten even better down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA in his last five starts. Estrada is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Kansas City. Edinson Volquez hasn't enjoyed facing the Blue Jays. In fact, he's 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA in six lifetime starts against them. The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. AL Central opponents. Toronto is 46-20 in its last 66 games overall. The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Kansas City is 1-4 in Volquez's last 5 starts. Take Toronto.
|
10-16-15 |
Cincinnati +7 v. BYU |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7
The Key: Statistically, the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country. They outgain their opponents by an average of 190 yards per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 587.2 yards per game. I look for the Bearcats to have their way with a fatigued BYU defense that is working on a short week of rest after playing on Saturday. Cincinnati hasn't played since October 1 and will be fresh and ready to go for this one. This is a huge scheduling advantage for the Bearcats, and one that should have them likely winning this game outright. Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win. BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game. The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their previous game. The Cougars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games off a 2-game home stand. Take Cincinnati.
|
10-15-15 |
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 v. New Orleans Saints |
Top |
21-31 |
Loss |
-101 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5
The Key: Atlanta is simply rolling right now and I do not expect the Saints to be able to slow them down. The Falcons are 5-0 this season and Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. He finally has a running game, which he hasn't had in quite some time in Atlanta. The Falcons have averaged 156 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Atlanta is putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season. Now this high-octane attack gets to go up against a New Orleans defense that allowed 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game. That matchup right there is going to lead to a blowout win for the Falcons. It also helps that Atlanta's defense is improved, limiting the Redskins to 19 points and 270 total yards last week while coming up with the game-winning interception in overtime. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last year. Take Atlanta.
|
10-15-15 |
Auburn v. Kentucky |
|
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
6* Auburn/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Auburn PK
The Key: When you look at the talent rankings, it's clear that Auburn is a vastly superior team than Kentucky. While the Tigers haven't lived up to their potential yet, I believe they will tonight as they have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game. I expect Gus Malzahn and Will Muschamp to have this team prepared better than they have been for any game yet this season. They now take on a Kentucky team that is very fortunate to be 4-1 as all five of its games were decided by a TD or less. That includes ugly home wins over non-conference opponents in Eastern Kentucky 34-27 (OT) and Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33. The Wildcats were actually outgained in those two games combined, which is awful. Auburn is 8-0 in its last 8 trips to Kentucky. The Wildcats are 1-10 straight up in their last 11 vs. SEC West opponents. Auburn will be the best team that the Wildcats have faced this season. Take Auburn.
|
10-14-15 |
Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals -124 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* Astros/Royals ALDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -124
The Key: After coming back to win from 6-2 down in the 8th inning of an elimination game in Game 4, the Royals have all of the momentum coming into Game 5 tonight. I look for that momentum to carry them to a victory and a second straight trip to the ALCS. The inexperience on the Astros will show in this winner-take-all game. Johnny Cueto hasn't exactly been lights out for the Royals, but this is his chance to step up and deliver for the team that believed in him at the trade deadline. Cueto has been at his best at home, going 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 15 starts this year. Collin McHugh has not been as good on the road, going 8-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 17 starts. Cueto is 20-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Cueto is 14-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career. The Astros are 44-97 in their last 141 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Kansas City.
|
10-13-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -150 v. New York Mets |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* Dodgers/Mets NLDS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -150
The Key: Clayton Kershaw will get the job done tonight and send this series back to Los Angeles. He lives for these moments and is ready to deliver for his team. Kershaw is 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA in four lifetime starts at Citi Field, giving up just 3 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings while striking out 31. He clearly loves throwing in this pitcher's park. New York is 16-39 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Los Angeles is 25-4 in Kershaw's last 29 starts against the NL East. Take Los Angeles.
|
10-13-15 |
Arkansas State -3.5 v. South Alabama |
Top |
49-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5
The Key: Arkansas State is just 2-3 this season, but the three losses have come to USC, Missouri and Toledo, and all three of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year. The Red Wolves even had Missouri on the ropes in a 27-20 home loss. I really like this team because they have even played three games without their best player in QB Fredi Knighten, and they returned 15 starters from last year to make yet another run at a Sun Belt title. Knighten returns from his 3-game absence tonight against South Alabama. The Red Wolves are 3-0 all-time against South Alabama, including a 45-10 home win last year. Knighten led the way with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars 400-201 for the game. This is a very inexperienced South Alabama team that returned only 5 starters from last year. But a surprising 3-2 start has the Jaguars overvalued. Their two losses weren't even close as they lost at Nebraska 9-48 and at home to NC State 13-63. There's no doubt Arkansas State would have given those teams a better fight. Arkansas State is rushing for 193 yards per game, which is bad news for a South Alabama defense giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. Take Arkansas State.
|
10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. San Diego Chargers |
Top |
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4
The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have had some extra time to prepare for the San Diego Chargers, which is going to be a huge advantage for them coming into this game. They last played on Thursday in a 20-23 home loss to the Ravens in a game they never should have lost, but couldn't finish late. Michael Vick made his first start in place of Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and he was at a disadvantage because he was working on a short week. Now he has had basically 10 days to get ready for this game and to expand the playbook with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley. Vick will be much more aggressive in this game, especially since he's up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game this season, while the Steelers are only giving up 18.7 points per game. The clear edge on defense goes to Pittsburgh, and I wouldn't give the Chargers as much of an edge offensively as this line indicates. The Steelers have the better weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, while the Chargers are really banged up along the offensive line. T King Dunlap and G Orlando Franklin are expected to miss this game, while T D.J. Fluker and G Chris Watt are both ganged up as well. Pittsburgh is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 games as an underdog. The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents. Take Pittsburgh.
|
10-12-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -129 v. Texas Rangers |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* Blue Jays/Rangers ALDS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -129
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays extended this series with a huge 5-1 win on Sunday in Game 3. They had the advantage on the mound yesterday, and they do again today behind R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer is back to pitching like he did when he won the Cy Young. He is 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts since the All-Star Break. Dickey is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 5 career starts in Texas, where he believes his knuckleball is even more effective because of the weather. "Here it's good because the humidity is usually nice and it's usually warmer, and those are two things that contribute to a moving knuckleball, one that reacts favorably as far as movement's concerned," Dickey said. "That's what I rely on." He'll be opposed by Derek Holland, who went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts this season. Holland did not finish well, going 1-1 with an 8.05 ERA in his final 3 starts. The left-hander also sports a 5.44 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts versus Toronto. The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Dickey's last 14 starts. The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Toronto.
|
10-11-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -140 v. Texas Rangers |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
6* Blue Jays/Rangers Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Toronto -140 The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays will win Game 3 to stay alive in this series. They will do so behind the advantage they have on the mound. Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Estrada is 12-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 28 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Texas. Martin Perez has struggled most of the season, going 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 Sunday starts. Take Toronto.
|
10-11-15 |
Washington Redskins +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
19-25 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7.5
The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS. Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season. In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points. Low-scoring games favor the underdog. This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons. The Redskins fit the system this week. They are actually 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 95 yards per game. The Falcons are overvalued this week due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS records. Take Washington.
|
10-11-15 |
Chicago Bears +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
|
18-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bears +10
The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS. Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season. In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points. Low-scoring games favor the underdog. This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons. The Bears fit the system this week. The Bears offense looked much improved last week with Jay Cutler leading them to a win over the Raiders. The Chiefs are clearly overvalued this week as double-digit favorites. Take Chicago.
|
10-11-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
31-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +2
The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS. Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season. In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points. Low-scoring games favor the underdog. This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons. The Jaguars fit the system this week. The Bucs have lost 12 straight home games and should not be favored. The Jaguars racked up over 400 yards of total offense on the Colts last week and should have won. Take Jacksonville.
|
10-11-15 |
St Louis Rams +9.5 v. Green Bay Packers |
|
10-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* Rams/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on St. Louis +9.5
The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS. Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season. In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points. Low-scoring games favor the underdog. This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons. The Rams fit the system this week. The Packers are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks and Cardinals this season, two of the best teams in the NFL. They can give Green Bay a fight. Take St. Louis.
|
10-10-15 |
Michigan State -13 v. Rutgers |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday Night *BLOWOUT* on Michigan State -13
The Key: Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread in its five games this season and is actually undervalued now as a result. The Spartans actually dropped from No. 2 in the rankings down to No. 4 even after winning last week to improve to 5-0 on the season. They held a 21-point lead over Purdue at half but had to hang on to win 24-21. You can bet that head coach Mark Dantonio is going to preach finishing this week, and I look for the Spartans to put forth their best second-half effort of the season to put away a very poor Rutgers team. Rutgers' two wins this season have come against Norfolk State and Kansas, and its 13-point win over the Jayhawks at home was far from impressive. Kansas is easily the worst Power 5 team in the nation, and Rutgers is close to being the worst. It lost at home to Washington State 34-37, which is the same WSU team that lost to an FCS opponent. It also lost 3-28 at Penn State in its hardest game this season. If the Scarlet Knights couldn't hang with the Nittany Lions, they stand little chance of keeping this one close against by far the best team they have played yet. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. Michigan State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 road games, including 8-1 ATS in its last 9 conference road games. This line has been bet down from 16.5 to 13, so there's clearly some value here. After all, the Spartans beat Rutgers 45-3 at home last year. Take Michigan State.
|
10-10-15 |
Arkansas +17 v. Alabama |
|
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* Arkansas/Alabama SEC West *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +17
The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks lost 14-13 last year to Alabama thanks to a missed extra point. They will be in revenge mode after really outplaying the Crimson Tide in that game last year, outgaining them 335-227. Arkansas has played its best two games the past two weeks. It lost in overtime 21-28 to a very good Texas A&M team hile outgaining the Aggies by 34 points. The Razorbacks then beat Tennessee 24-20 on the road last week while outgaining the Vols by 142 yards. This is a letdown spot for Alabama off its big win over Georgia last week in a game that was closer than the 38-10 margin indicated. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Bulldogs by 80 yards in that contest. Alabama is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 home games vs. poor passing defenses that surrender 250 or more yards per game. Take Arkansas.
|
10-10-15 |
Northwestern +10 v. Michigan |
Top |
0-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10
The Key: Northwestern is 5-0 with impressive wins over Stanford, Duke and Minnesota by a combined score of 62-16. Those are three really good opponents, and the Wildcats have made easy work of them. But they still aren't getting any love here from the books as they are double-digits dogs to the Wolverines. The Wildcats have lost the last 3 meetings to Michigan all by a single possession. They lost in 2012 and 2013 in overtime and by a final of 10-9 last year. It's safe to say that they are going to want revenge pretty badly in this one. "Thinking back, those losses definitely stick out to me over the years so I definitely want to get one this week," senior left guard Matt Frazier said. Plays on road underdogs after allowing 9 points or less last game against an opponent that allowed 3 points or less in the first half of last game are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 years. The Wolverines are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Northwestern.
|
10-10-15 |
LSU v. South Carolina +20 |
|
45-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Game of the Week on South Carolina +20
The Key: The LSU Tigers struggle to blow out teams due to the style of football the play. They are a ball control team that runs it the majority of the time, which eats up clock and makes it harder to win by big margins. They failed to cover as 23-point favorites in a 34-24 win at Syracuse two weeks ago. They didn't even come close to covering as 44.5-point home favorites against Eastern Michigan in a 44-22 win last week. If they can only beat Syracuse by 10 and EMU by 22, then they don't have much of a chance to cover this 20-point spread against South Carolina, which is probably the second-best team they have played this year. SC is way undervalued right now due to going 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS up to this point and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in SEC play. The Gamecocks are simply catching too many points here. Their defense is vastly improved the last two weeks as they held UCF to just 230 total yards and Missouri to 299 total yards. LSU is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. It is only winning by 11.0 points per game in this spot. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take South Carolina.
|
10-10-15 |
Central Michigan +6 v. Western Michigan |
|
39-41 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +6
The Key: Central Michigan should not be an underdog to Western Michigan in this game. CMU is the better team this year, and oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the fact that WMU has a bye coming in. It's not going to matter. Central Michigan's three losses this year have come against three very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24), Syracuse (27-30, OT) and Michigan State (10-30). The Chippewas were only outgained by 77 yards by the Cowboys, they outgained Syracuse by 194 yards, and they also outgained Michigan State by 16 yards. They have stood toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country. Western Michigan has been outgained in 3 of its 4 games this season. It was outgained by 173 yards by Ohio State, 168 yards by Georgia Southern, and 69 yards by MIchigan State. Cooper Rush is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 67% of his passes for 1,450 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks for the Chippewas. Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings. The Chippewas will be looking to avenge their 20-32 home loss to the Broncos last year. CMU is 6-0 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play the last 3 years. WMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more yards per game. Take Central Michigan.
|
10-09-15 |
NC State v. Virginia Tech -2 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2
The Key: VA Tech QB Michael Brewers returns from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the Ohio State game. That's going to give this offense a huge boost. The Hokies were on their way to upsetting Ohio State before Brewer got hurt, and they have been in a tailspin ever since. But with him back, this offense is going to be much better tonight against NC State, which lost its first game of the season at home to Louisville last week after playing a bunch of cupcakes coming in. The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the nation, too. The Hokies are 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take Virginia Tech.
|
10-09-15 |
Chicago Cubs +100 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
6* Cubs/Cards National League *CA$H COW* on Chicago +100
The Key: I believe the Chicago Cubs are the best team in the National League right now. The Cardinals went 15-16 down the stretch and are not as good as they were earlier in the year en route to winning 101 games. The Cubs have won 98 games and finished strong, including their 4-0 win over the Pirates in the wild card game. Jon Lester really turned it on down the stretch, too, proving that he's the ace the Cubs were hoping for when they paid him all that money this offseason. Lester has given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He is 3-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in eight career starts against St. Louis. Take Chicago.
|
10-08-15 |
Washington v. USC -16.5 |
|
17-12 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
6* Washington/USC Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC -16.5
The Key: Washington is in rebuilding mode under Chris Petersen this season. He returned just 9 starts and lost a ton of talent to the NFL. In their two toughest games this year, the Huskies were thoroughly outplayed by Boise State and California. They were outgained by Boise State by 158 yards and outgained by Cal by 222 yards. Their offense only put up 179 yards on Boise State and 259 on California. Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in USC. Their offense won't be able to score enough points to keep up. USC averages 47 points, 532 yards and 8.1 yards per play this season. It beat down Arizona State 42-14 on the road last time out, and this Washington team isn't nearly as good as ASU. USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win by 28 or more points on the road. Take USC.
|
10-08-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans -3.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Colts/Texans TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -3.5
The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are going to be without Andrew Luck, which is why this line has moved so much since it opened at Texans +1.5. The Texans simply need this game too badly to overlook the Colts playing without Luck. They are 1-3 and their season is pretty much on the line tonight. They got embarrassed last week by the Falcons due to self-inflicted wounds, so they are going to be playing with an extra chip on their shoulder because of that. Arian Foster is on his second game back and expect a heavy dose of him as this Houston offense is so much better with him in the lineup. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are in trouble again today. They should have lost to the Jaguars last week as they gave up 431 total yards to that putrid offense. They are now giving up 388 yards per game and will be up against a Houston offense averaging 384 yards per game. Take Houston.
|
10-08-15 |
Houston Astros +127 v. Kansas City Royals |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
127 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
6* Astros/Royals American League *CA$H COW* on Houston +127
The Key: I look for the Houston Astros to ride their momentum from a 3-0 wild card victory over the Yankees into Game 1 of this series with the Royals. They could easily be last year's Royals with the way they won the wild card game and made the World Series. This team has more firepower than the Royals did last year, and their entire staff is underrated. Collin McHugh won 19 games this year with a 3.71 ERA to boot. He went 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over his final three starts of 2015, so he came through clutch when the Astros were battling for their playoff lives. McHugh is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one lifetime starts vs. KC, pitching 7 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a 3-0 Houston victory in Kansas City last May. Yordano Ventura is not the type of ace most staffs would like to have. He's 13-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 28 starts this season and very beatable. The Astros are 6-1 in McHugh's last 7 starts. Houston is 13-3 in McHugh's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series. Take Houston.
|
10-07-15 |
Chicago Cubs -134 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* Cubs/Pirates Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -134
The Key: Jake Arrieta has been unhittable since the All-Star Break. He sports a 0.75 ERA since the break, which is an MLB record. His 1.77 ERA on the season is the best mark for the Cubs since 1919. He has owned the Pirates, too, going 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them. In 2015 alone, Arrieta is 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA in 5 starts against the Pirates. He has only allowed 3 earned runs over 36 innings against Pittsburgh in 2015. The Cubs are 13-0 in Arrieta's 13 starts as a road favorite this season. Arrieta is 7-0 against the money line in road games off 3 or more straight wins in his career. Arrieta is 12-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. That's a 32-0 angle backing Arrieta and the Cubs. Take Chicago.
|
10-06-15 |
Houston Astros v. New York Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
7* Astros/Yankees *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 7 The Key: I expect there will be plenty of runs scored in tonight's Wild Card game between the Yankees and Astros. These are two of the top home run hitting teams in baseball, and Yankee Stadium has yielded the second-most home runs in baseball this year. The Astros are 2nd with 230 homers, while the Yankees are 4th with 212. Masahiro Tanaka has given up 25 homers in 154 innings this season, including 17 in 87 1/3 innings at home. Dallas Keuchel is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA on the road while giving up 13 homers in 102 2/3 innings. Tanaka gave up 3 homers and 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a 9-6 loss to Houston on June 27 in his only lifetime start against the Astros. The Astros have combined with their last five opponents to score at least 8 runs. The Yankees have combined with 5 of their last 6 opponents to score at least 7 runs. Houston is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season. It is combining with opponents for an average of 12.4 runs per game in this spot. Take the OVER.
|
10-05-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* Lions/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -9.5
The Key: At 1-2 on the season, the Seattle Seahawks certainly need a win tonight. That's why they will not be overlooking the 0-3 Lions, who are simply a mess right now. The Seahawks' only two losses have come against the Packers and Rams on the road this season. They crushed the Bears 26-0 in their only home game last week while outgaining them by 225 total yards in an absolute blowout. The Lions have been outgained in every game during their 0-3 start, and they are getting outgained by 90.7 yards per game on the season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. The Seahawks will be going for their 7th straight home win and their 23rd in 25 home games Monday night. Seattle has won its last two home meetings with Detroit by a combined 33 points. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 375 or more yards per game since 1992. They are winning by 22.0 points per game in this situation. Take Seattle.
|
10-04-15 |
Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers +9 |
|
17-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
6* Packers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +9
The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul. The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week. They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them. Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS. The 49ers are a system match this week. They suffered the biggest Week 3 blowout loss by 40 points to the Cardinals. The 49ers opened as 9.5-point underdogs, and despite over 80% of the spread bets being on the Packers, this line has dropped down to even 7 in some places. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that the sharp money favors the 49ers. Since 2003, home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 118-88 (57.3%) ATS, which provides even more value on the 49ers. Take San Francisco.
|
10-04-15 |
St Louis Rams +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals |
Top |
24-22 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* NFC West Game of the Month on St. Louis Rams +7.5
The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul. The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week. They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them. Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS. The Rams are a match this week. After scoring 34 points against the Seahawks in a Week 1 victory, the Rams managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss to Washington and six points in a Week 3 loss to the Steelers. The red-hot Cardinals, meanwhile, now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) to win the Super Bowl. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Rams and sell high on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are receiving nearly 90 percent of the spread bets this week. Take St. Louis.
|
10-04-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 |
|
37-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 0 m |
Show
|
6* NFC South Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul. The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week. They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them. Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS. The Buccaneers are a match this week. One week after upsetting the Siants as 10-point underdogs, the Bucs tallied just 318 total yards in a 19-9 loss at Houston in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-0 and receiving 90% of the spread bets this week. But the Panthers have played a very soft schedule as their opponents are a combined 2-7. Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, which provides additional value on the Bucs this week. Take Tampa Bay.
|
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson -1.5 |
|
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
6* Clemson/Notre Dame ABC Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on Clemson -1.5
The Key: The Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in college football. With all of their injuries, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no longer one of the best teams in the land. That will show Saturday as Clemson gets it done and continues its success at home. After all, the Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past 5 seasons. This is a great spot for Clemson too because it last played on September 17 and will have had 15 days of rest in between games. Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its last game. The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games against elite defenses that give up 285 or fewer yards per game. The Tigers are only allowing 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game this year. Take Clemson.
|
10-03-15 |
Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -5 |
|
17-30 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* Miss State/Texas A&M SEC West *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -5
The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies are a team on the rise with 16 starters back from last year. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on the decline with only 7 starts back this season. Texas A&M has already beaten two very good teams in Arizona State (38-17) and Arkansas (28-21) during its 4-0 start. Both of those games were at neutral sites, and now the Aggies get to play inside a hostile atmosphere at Kyle Field. Mississippi State only managed 19 points against LSU and 17 against Auburn. Texas A&M has its best defense since Kevin Sumlin arrived here and will limit the Bulldogs as well. But the Aggies have a distinct advantage on offense as they are putting up 41.5 PPG thus far. Plays on any team after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 3 straight games, who return 8-plus offensive starters and their QB against teams returning 5 or less defensive starters are 44-15 ATS over the last 10 years. Sumlin is 9-1 ATS in home games after a game where his team committed zero turnovers in all games he has coached. Sumlin is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a 62% or more completions. Take Texas A&M.
|
10-03-15 |
Vanderbilt +3 v. Middle Tennessee State |
|
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Vanderbilt +3
The Key: This is SEC vs. Conference USA and really an easy choice here with getting Vanderbilt as an underdog. Yes, Vanderbilt already lost to once C-USA team in Western Kentucky, but they gave that game away and should have won. They lost 12-14 to WKU despite outgaining the Hilltoppers by 147 yards and limiting their high-powered offense to only 12 points and 247 total yards. I was really impressed with Vanderbilt's efforts against Georgia and Ole Miss, too. They were only outgained by 22 yards by Georgia in their 14-31 loss. They only lost to le Miss 16-27 despite being 27-point underdogs. And as you know, many consider Ole Miss to be the best team in the country after they went on the road and beat Alabama. Vanderbilt is 29-11 ATS in its last 40 road games after playing its last game on the road. The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. C-USA opponents and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Vanderbilt.
|
10-03-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -113 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -113
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the American League despite already clinching the AL East division. That's why they aren't taking their foot off the gas just yet unlike the Rays, who have already clinched a losing record this season. The Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 games and 43-16 in their last 59 games overall. Marco Estrada is 13-8 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 27 starts and 6 relief appearances, including 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Chris Archer is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Tampa Bay. Estrada is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.300 WHIP in two lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay, both of which came this season. He has pitched 16 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays while allowing a mere 5 base runners in 2015. Archer allowed 9 earned runs and 15 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against Toronto on September 26. Take Toronto.
|
10-03-15 |
Boston College +7 v. Duke |
Top |
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7
The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week by a final of 34-20. But they were very fortunate to win that game because they only gained 279 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Yellow Jackets by 37 yards. They are now in a letdown spot this week against Boston College. This is a very good Boston College team and perhaps one of the most underrated in the country. After wins over Howard and Maine by a combined 100-3 score, the Eagles have really shown what they could do against great competition the last two weeks. They were only outgained by 22 yards in a 0-14 loss to Florida State. They outgained Northern Illinois by 173 yards in a 17-14 home win that was a bigger blowout than the score showed. That's also the same NIU team that only lost to Ohio State 20-13. Boston College has the type of defense that will keep it in a lot of games. The Eagles are giving up an absurd 7.7 points and 118.0 yards per game this season. Opponents are only averaging 2.3 yards per play against this stingy bunch, which may be the best in the country. The Eagles are 38-20 ATS in their last 58 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Steve Addazio is 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of BC. Take Boston College.
|
10-03-15 |
Iowa +6 v. Wisconsin |
|
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 52 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa +6
The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team in the Big Ten West division from what I've seen this year. It has a good road win over Iowa State by 14 and a solid home win over Pittsburgh by a field goal. It has thoroughly dominated its two lesser opponents, outgaining Illinois State by 200 yards in its 31-14 home win, and crushing North Texas 62-16. It is outgaining the opposition by an average of 144.7 yards per game this year. Wisconsin has only played one good team in Alabama, and it was thoroughly dominated 17-35 in a bigger blowout than even that final score showed. Its other three wins have come against Miami Ohio, Troy and Hawaii, and it only scored 28 points against the latter two teams. Iowa wants revenge from a 24-26 home loss to Wisconsin last year. Iowa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game. The Hawkeyes are 40-16 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry since 1992. Iowa is only giving up 84 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. Wisconsin is without top running back Corey Clement for 4-6 weeks. The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Iowa is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall. Take Iowa.
|
10-02-15 |
Connecticut +14.5 v. BYU |
Top |
13-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* UConn/BYU ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +14.5
The Key: BYU has nothing left in the tank. It is coming off four huge games against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan. Now it will be working on a short week and won't have enough to put away UConn by more than four touchdowns. I've been very impressed with this UConn defense and believe this will be a close, low-scoring game. UConn is only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game this season. The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip. Take UConn.
|
10-02-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -108 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -108
The Key: While the Toronto Blue Jays have clinched the AL East division, there is still work to be done. They are tied with the Kansas City Royals for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll back Mark Buehrle, who is 14-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.223 WHIP while continuing to get it done in the twilight of his career. Erazmo Ramirez hasn't had the greatest success against the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them. The Blue Jays are 42-16 in their last 58 overall. The Rays are 1-5 in Ramirez's last six starts. Take Toronto.
|
10-01-15 |
Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
Top |
23-20 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Ravens/Steelers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3
The Key: The Ravens have a must-win game on their hands as they cannot afford to fall to 0-4. They could be 3-0 right now but blew fourth quarter leads in all three of their losses to the Broncos, Raiders and Bengals. "This is a must-win for sure," Baltimore linebacker Elvis Dumervil told the team's official website. "We won't quit, and you can guarantee that Pittsburgh, (it will) get our best shot." Without Ben Roethlisberger, I don't give the Steelers much of a chance this week. Michael Vick has to come in and start on a short week and won't be fully prepared because of it. Joe Flacco owns a 6-3 record in his last 9 starts against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns passes against only 2 interceptions. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS following an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Baltimore.
|
10-01-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 |
|
23-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* Miami/Cincinnati Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5
The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats are way better than they are getting credit for here. They have outgained each of their first 4 opponents by at least 97 yards apiece, yet they are 2-0. Being -10 in turnover differential through four games is the reason why. Their offense is putting up 623 yards per game while their defense is only allowing 390. They are outgaining opponents by 233 yards per game. Hayden Moore threw for 557 yards on Memphis in only three quarters last week and may be a better starter than Gunner Kiel, who simply turns the ball over too much. Cincinnati is 27-0 at home against non-conference opponents dating back to 2002. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against good offensive teams who score 31 or more points per game. Take Cincinnati.
|
10-01-15 |
Minnesota Twins -105 v. Cleveland Indians |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -105
The Key: The Minnesota Twins are just 1.5 games back in the wild card with a fighting chance over their final four games. They have won four of their last five coming in. The Twins have a massive advantage on the mound tonight. Tyler Duffey has been huge for them down the stretch, going 5-1 with a 3.14 ERA in nine starts. Duffey is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts to boot. Trevor Bauer has been ineffective all year, going 11-12 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.339 WHIP as a start, including 5-7 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 15 home starts. Bauer is 1-2 with a 10.33 ERA and 2.118 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Duffey pitched 6 shutout innings of one-hit ball in a 4-1 win over the Indians on August 15. Buaer is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland. The Twins are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Twins are 7-0 in Duffey's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take this 22-0 angle backing the Twins straight to the bank. Take Minnesota.
|
09-30-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays - Game #1 -162 v. Baltimore Orioles - Game #1 |
Top |
15-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto Blue Jays -162 (Game 1)
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are not only on a mission to win the AL East, they are also looking to earn the No. 1 seed in the American League and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. They can clinch the AL East for the first time in 22 years with a win today over the Orioles, so they'll be motivated to do so. They have won five straight coming in and play an Orioles team that has clearly given up. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games overall and have been outscored 3-21 in the process. They have been shut out three times during this stretch. Marcus Stroman has lit it up here of late, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Miguel Gonzalez, who is 9-11 with a 4.85 ERA in 25 starts, including 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA in his last three. The Blue Jays are 41-14 in their last 55 overall. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in Stroman's last four starts. The Orioles are 0-7 in Gonzalez's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Toronto in Game 1.
|
09-29-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants +125 |
Top |
8-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
7* Dodgers/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco +125
The Key: As crazy as it may sound, the San Francisco Giants actually still have a shot to come back and win the NL West. That's because they have won three in a row including Game 1 of this series with the Dodgers. If they sweep the 4-game series, they'll only be two games back going into their final series. They clearly have not given up, while the Dodgers have struggled coming in with four straight losses. Now the Giants send their ace to the mound in Madison Bumgarner and we're getting him as a home underdog, which almost never happens. Bumgarner is 9-3 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in 16 home starts this year. Clayton Kershaw hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home, going 4-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 15 road starts. The Dodgers are actually 6-9 (-10.5 units) in his road starts this year. The Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 7-1 n Bumgarner's last 8 home starts. Los Angeles is 0-7 in its last 7 trips to San Francisco. The Dodgers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings when Kershaw faces Bumgarner. Take San Francisco.
|
09-28-15 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -168 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels -168
The Key: I'm willing to lay this heavy price with the Angels tonight due to what's at stake. They trail the Houston Astros by just 1/2 game for the last wild card spot in the American League. They have put themselves in this position by going 5-0 in their last five games overall and playing clutch baseball down the stretch. The Oakland A's are just ready for their season to be over with. They are just 1-7 in their last eight games overall and have rarely been competitive as six of the losses have come by two runs or more. Hector Santiago has been dominant at home, going 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 16 starts this year. He'll be opposed by Felix Doubront, who is 3-3 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA in his last three. Santiago is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. Oakland, while Doubront is 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The A's are 16-40 in their last 56 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 4-23 in their last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Angels are 7-2 in Santiago's last nine home starts. Take Los Angeles.
|
09-28-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
28-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Packers UNDER 49
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They only gave up 17.7 points per game last season and are even more talented overall on this side of the ball in 2015. They certainly do not win games with their offense, which is just a mediocre unit. The Packers look improved on defense this year in limiting the Bears and Seahawks to an average of 20.0 points per game. Having a healthy B.J. Raji back in the middle has made a huge difference. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (Green Bay) who had a good offense last season and averaged 5.4 or more yards per play, in non-conference games the next season are 60-27 over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss. Take the UNDER.
|
09-27-15 |
San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Arizona Cardinals |
Top |
7-47 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +6.5
The Key: This is the most inflated line on the board. The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Steelers. while the Cardinals are coming off a blowout win over the Bears. Almost every time you should take the team coming off a blowout loss in this situation because there is value in doing so. That's what we'll do Sunday as this game is decided by less than a TD. Take San Francisco.
|
09-27-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros -1.5 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Sunday *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-104)
The Key: The Houston Astros are now in must-win mode after losing three straight. They are only 1/2 game up on the Angles in the wild card standings. They cannot afford to lose any more. They have a massive advantage on the mound today behind Dallas Keuchel, who is 14-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in 17 home starts. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who is 3-5 with a 5.21 ERA in 12 starts, and 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA in 7 road starts. Take Houston on the Run Line.
|
09-27-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans OVER 46 |
|
35-33 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Colts/Titans OVER 46
The Key: These are two very bad defenses going at it Sunday. I'll take the OVER as a result as I see the Colts putting up a big number on the Titans, but not being able to stop Marcus Mariota and company. The Colts are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse since 1992. They're combining with their opponents for 56.0 points per game in this spot. Take the OVER.
|
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are -2 and in a must-win spot here. They take on a New York Jets team coming off a massive win over the Colts on Monday Night Football. So not only are the Jets working on a short week, they're also in a letdown spot here. The Eagles will simply want this one more and get the win as a result. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Philadelphia.
|
09-26-15 |
Missouri v. Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2.5
The Key: Missouri is the most overrated team in college football. That has really shown the past two weeks. The heavily favored Tigers trailed UConn late in the third quarter last Saturday before putting together their lone touchdown drive of the day, then held on for a 9-6 victory on Anthony Sherril's interception on a fake field goal with 39 seconds remaining. Missouri overcame a seven-point halftime deficit at Arkansas State the previous week to earn a 27-20 decision. This is the most talented team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky yet. The Wildcats upset South Carolina on the road 26-22, and then nearly upset Florida in a 9-14 home loss last week. The Wildcats only lost 20-10 at Missouri last season and will be out for revenge here. They finally have the team to beat Missouri. They limited the Gators to just 245 yards last week. Missouri has an awful offense and QB Maty Mauk has thrown for just 293 combined yards against Arkansas State and UConn the last two weeks. The Tigers are averaging 3.2 yards per rush this season, and Mauk is averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Take Kentucky.
|
09-26-15 |
New York Mets -147 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
10-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* National League *CA$H COW* on New York Mets -147
The Key: The New York Mets are so close to an NL East title that they can almost taste it. They have a chance to clinch today with a win and will be hungry to do so. They get to take on a Cincinnati team that has been a punching bag for the rest of the National League since the All-Star Break. The Reds have lost six in a row coming in and are 16-35 in their last 51 games overall. Matt Harvey is having a great season at 12-7 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in 27 starts. He'll be opposed by John Lamb, who is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in four home starts. Harvey is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Cincinnati. The Mets are 22-5 in their last 27 road games. The Mets are 34-13 in their last 47 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 49-16 (+29.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Take New York.
|
09-26-15 |
Ohio v. Minnesota UNDER 47.5 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-106 |
36 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Ohio/Minnesota UNDER 47.5
The Key: The oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set Saturday, which is my favorite total in college football this week. Minnesota is 3-0 to the UNDER this season and yet the oddsmakers have still managed to set this total too high. They combined for only 40 points with TCU, 43 points with Colorado State, and 17 points with Kent State. They have an awful offense and a great defense, which seems to be the case with them every year. The Golden Gophers are averaging just 16.7 points and 347.3 yards per game offensively, while giving up 16.7 points and 301.7 yards per game defensively. Ohio has played a very easy schedule with Idaho, Marshall and SE Louisiana. The only game they've played that matters is that Marshall game. And that was a 21-10 win for Ohio and 31 combined points. The Bobcats held a very good Marshall offense to just 241 total yards in that win. Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER in its last 8 games after scoring 17 points or less. Ohio is 8-0 UNDER after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 19-7 in Bobcats last 26 games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Bobcats last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER.
|
09-26-15 |
Navy v. Connecticut +7 |
|
28-18 |
Loss |
-105 |
33 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *UPSET SPECIAL* on UConn +7
The Key: The UConn Huskies are an improved team this season that could be 3-0. They beat Villanova and Army in their first two games, and then lost 6-9 at Missouri last week as three-touchdown underdogs. The key here being that they already faced a triple-option team in Army. Now they face another triple-option team in Navy. Having just prepared for this system two weeks ago, that's going to be a huge advantage for the Huskies. Navy will be hitting the road for the first time after playing a cake home schedule up to this point against Colgate and East Carolina. The Midshipmen did beat ECU 45-21, but they only outgained them by 51 yards and it wasn't the blowout that the final score showed. UConn is only giving up 279.3 yards per game this season, including 126 rushing and 3.7 per carry. The Huskies limited Missouri to only 270 total yards last week. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with 3 or more straight wins are 50-15 ATS since 1992. Navy is clearly overvalued here. Take UConn.
|
09-25-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros -125 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros -125
The Key: The Houston Astros want serious revenge on the Texas Rangers after getting swept in four games from September 14-17. They now trail the Rangers by 3.5 games in the division and need to really sweep this series to get right back in it. It starts with Game 1 tonight and the big edge the Astros have on the mound. Scott Kazmir sports a 2.73 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 29 starts this season, and a 2.13 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 15 home starts. He'll be opposed by Yovani Gallardo, who is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. Gallardo has posted an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against Houston while allowing 8 earned runs in 9 innings. Kazmir is 11-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 23 lifetime starts against Texas. In 2015 alone, Kazmir is 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA against the Rangers in 5 starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 33 2/3 innings. Houston is 16-3 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. The Astros are 43-18 in their last 61 home games. Take Houston.
|
09-25-15 |
Boise State v. Virginia +3 |
Top |
56-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia +3
The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers play one of the most brutal non-conference schedules in the country every year. They have actually held their own this season against a pair of Top 10 teams. They lost to UCLA 16-34 as 18-point road underdogs, and then they nearly upset Notre Dame as 14-point home dogs with a 27-34 loss after giving up a touchdown in the closing seconds. I have not been impressed with Boise State in a 3-point home win over Washington and an 11-point road loss to BYU. The Broncos had to replace their two best players from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grant Hedrick. They are already down their starting QB in Ryan Finley, which is going to prove to be a big blow as the season goes on. They managed fine without him against Idaho State last week, but now they face a different animal here in Virginia. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Broncos are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Virginia.
|
09-24-15 |
Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3.5 |
Top |
21-32 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Redskins/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -3.5
The Key: The New York Giants really should be 2-0 right now had they not blown 10-point leads in the second half of each of their first two games against the Cowboys and Falcons, who are both proving to be two of the best teams in the NFL in the early going. Now the Giants have to win this game and will be hungry to do so. They get to play a Redskins team that they have beaten four straight times by an average of 16.3 points per game. Eli Manning threw seven touchdown passes and only one interception in the two meetings with the Redskins last year. Washington split its two home games to open the season, but now it goes on the road where it is a combined 2-14 over the past two seasons. The Giants ranked 3rd in the league in run defense thus far in giving up 68 yards per game and 3.0 per carry. The Redskins are clearly a primary running team this year as they rank 1st in the league in rushing, so the Giants are equipped to stop them. Take New York.
|
09-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. Memphis UNDER 66.5 |
|
46-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 17 m |
Show
|
6* Cincinnati/Memphis *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 66.5
The Key: Both Cincinnati and Memphis have gone 3-0 to the over through their first three games of the season. That has forced oddsmakers to set the total for this game higher than it should be, and now the value is clearly with the under as the betting public is all over the over. Memphis and Cincinnati are putting up big numbers offensively, but that's because they have faces some awful defenses. That's especially the case for the Tigers, who have faced Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green. But both of these defenses have played pretty well and will step up tonight. Cincinnati is only giving up 330.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play. Yes, Temple scored 34 points against the Bearcats, but that was due to five turnovers by Cincinnati. The Bearcats held the Owls to just 296 total yards. Memphis is only giving up 354 yards per game and 5.0 per play against teams that average 437 yards per game and 5.5 per play. These teams have only combined for exactly 55 points in each of their two meetings over the past two seasons. Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER in road games after gaining 475 or more yards per game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is combining to score 38.6 points per game with its seven opponents during this span. Memphis is 15-4 to the UNDER in its last 19 versus good offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play. Take the UNDER.
|
09-24-15 |
Texas Rangers -144 v. Oakland A's |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -144
The Key: I backed the Texas Rangers with success yesterday and I'll support them again today. The Rangers are now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and on a mission to win the AL West. The A's are the worst team in the American League and have now lost four straight coming in while giving up 33 runs in the process. Cole Hamels is enjoying pitching for a contender. He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts with the Rangers. Chris Bassitt will be making his first start since August 26 and is just 1-6 on the season. The Rangers are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 starts. The A's are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Oakland is 16-39 in its last 55 vs. a left-handed starter. Take Texas.
|
09-23-15 |
Texas Rangers -117 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* MLB 100% Never Lost *MOUND MISMATCH* on Texas Rangers -117
The Key: The Texas Rangers have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall to take control of the AL West race. They now lead the Houston Astros by two games and want to keep their foot on the gas to maintain first place. They continue their series with the lowly Oakland A's (64-87), who have lost three in a row coming in. The Rangers have a massive advantage on the mound tonight behind Colby Lewis, who is 16-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 30 starts, and 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last two. One of those was against Oakland on September 11 as he pitched a 2-hit shutout. Lewis is now 10-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 24 lifetime starts versus Oakland. Felix Doubront is 3-2 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.476 WHIP this season for the A's, including 1-1 with a 7.72 ERA in his last three starts. Doubront has never beaten the Rangers, going 0-5 with an 11.50 ERA and 2.507 WHIP in five lifetime starts against then. Enough said. Take Texas.
|
09-22-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -139 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates -139
The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have a massive edge on the mound today over the Colorado Rockies. One of the quietest moves at the trade deadline was acquiring J.A. Happ. The left-hander has been under the radar, going 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA since joining the Pirates. He has struck out 26 batters in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts and has a 1.30 ERA in his last seven. Chris Rusin is 5-8 with a 5.11 ERA this season for Colorado. The left-hander has a 9.00 ERA in his last five starts as well. Happ is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Colorado. The Rockies are 1-9 (-8.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more this season. The Pirates are 6-1 in Happ's last 7 starts. The Rockies are 33-81 in their last 114 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh.
|
09-22-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox -124 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-124 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox -124
The Key: The Boston Red Sox have been playing their best baseball of the season here down the stretch and are nearly back to .500 because of it. They have gone 20-11 in their last 31 games overall and have not quit. The Rays have gone 6-12 in their last 18 games and are just looking forward to the finish line. Henry Owens has been very sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 1 earned run in 13 innings for a minuscule 0.69 ERA. Those two starts have come against the Blue Jays and Orioles to boot. Matt Moore has been awful, going 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 9 starts this year, and 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.040 WHIP in 4 road starts. Moore is 2-5 with a 7.03 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Boston. In two starts against the Red Sox in 2015, Moore has allowed 12 earned runs in 8 innings for a 13.50 ERA. The Rays are 2-10 in Moore's last 12 starts. Tampa Bay is 0-7 in Moore's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left-handed starter. Take Boston.
|
09-22-15 |
New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays -131 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-131 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Yankees/Blue Jays ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -131
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays have lost two of their last three games coming into this one. They haven't lost three games in a four-game stretch since all the way back on July 24-28. I look for them to take down the New York Yankees tonight behind a raucous home crowd in Toronto on National TV with this game being televised on ESPN. Marco Estrada has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 13-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 25 starts and six relief appearances. In his last 3 starts against the Yankees this season, Estrada has allowed 6 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings. Luis Severino is a talented young starters, but the Blue Jays have owned him in two starts this year. Severino is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in those two starts while allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 8 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are 8-0 in Estradas last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Toronto is 38-16 in its last 54 home games. Take Toronto.
|
09-21-15 |
NY Jets +7 v. Indianapolis Colts |
Top |
20-7 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* Jets/Colts MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7
The Key: The Indianapolis Colts were a popular choice to win the Super Bowl coming into the season. They had progressed further in the playoffs each of the last three years, and many thought they were ready to take that next step. I'm not not one of them. But that perception that the Colts are a Super Bowl contender has them way overvalued in the early going. That was the case last week in a 27-14 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. Now, the Colts have to face a similar team in the New York Jets, who are built behind a Top 5 defense and one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, just like the Bills. The Jets thumped the Cleveland Browns 31-10 in the opener. The Jets were picked to finished last in the AFC East by most media outlets, which has them undervalued in the early going. This is a much better Jets team than the one Rex Ryan had to work with last year. Todd Bowles stepped into a great situation with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason. The Colts could be without top receiver T.Y. Hilton and top RB Frank Gore, who are both questionable to play. Even if they do suit up, I still like the Jets to stay within a touchdown here and possibly pull off the upset. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC foes and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They have gone 5-3 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Colts despite being an underdog 6 times, and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take New York.
|
09-21-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox +111 |
|
7-8 |
Win
|
111 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox +111
The Key: The Boston Red Sox have actually been playing some of their best baseball of the season here down the stretch and are nearly back to .500 because of it. They have gone 19-11 in their last 30 games overall and clearly have not quit. The Rays, meanwhile, have gone 6-11 in their last 17 games overall. Eduardo Rodriquez is having a fine season for Boston, going 9-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 19 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last three outings. Chris Archer is having a good season for Tampa Bay as well, but he's 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts. Archer does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts against them. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Boston is 7-1 in Rodriquez's last 8 home starts. Take Boston.
|
09-20-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 |
Top |
20-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles should have beaten the Atlanta Falcons last week, while the Dallas Cowboy should have lost to the New York Giants. But since Dallas won and Philadelphia lost, I look for the Eagles to come out extra motivated for a win this week. The Cowboys do not have Dez Bryant, and without him they are an average offense at best. Philadelphia is one of the best offensive teams in the league and will rack up a ton of points in this one behind an inspired effort from ex-Cowboy DeMarco Murray. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years, coming back to win by an average of 16.9 points per game. Take Philadelphia.
|
09-20-15 |
Miami Dolphins v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |
|
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6
The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003. Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS. Betting on the Jaguars is like picking up after your dog. It's not pretty and nobody likes it, but most of the time you don't have a choice. The Jaguars are one of the least popular teams among spread bettors. The Dolphins are receiving over 90% of the action in this one after their 17-10 win at Washington last week. But the Dolphins needed a punt return TD to win that game and were actually outgained by 93 yards by the Redskins. The Jaguars' 9-20 home loss to the Panthers wasn't as bad as the score looked. They outgained the Panthers by two yards in that game, and their defense limited them to 263 total yards. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 9 or fewer points last game are 47-20 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville.
|
09-20-15 |
Los Angeles Angels +100 v. Minnesota Twins |
|
1-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels +100
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels swept both games with the Minnesota Twins yesterday to pull within 1.5 games of the Houston Astros for the final wild card spot in the American League. I look for the Angels to make a big run here down the stretch to give themselves a chance to get in. Matt Shoemaker is on top of his game right now, going 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just 1 earned run and 9 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. Shoemaker is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Minnesota. He faced the Twins back on July 21, pitching 6 shutout innings and striking out 10 batters in a 7-0 Angels victory. The Angels are 17-5 in Shoemaker's last 22 road starts. The Twins are 0-5 in their last five games overall. Take Los Angeles.
|
09-20-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 |
|
48-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +2.5
The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003. Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS. The betting public is all over the road favorite Arizona Cardinals this week with 87% of the action going their way. Chicago actually entered the fourth quarter with a lead against Green Bay last week and outgained the Packers by 80 total yards. Matt Forte showed he's still an elite back with 141 rushing yards. Arizona only outgained New Orleans by 19 yards last week, and that was far from the 31-19 score that the final scored indicated. Take Chicago.
|
09-20-15 |
Tennessee Titans v. Cleveland Browns +2 |
|
14-28 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +2
The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003. Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS. Over 80% of the bets are coming in on the Tennessee Titans, who beat the Tampa Bay Bucs 42-14 last week. But the Titans only outgained the Bucs by 36 total yards, and they somehow managed to score 42 despite just 309 yards of total offense. Cleveland's 10-31 loss to the Jets last week wasn't as big of a blowout as the score would indicate. The Browns were only outgained by 12 total yards, and they gave the ball away five times with turnovers. The perception is that Marcus Mariota and the Titans are the next big thing now, but I'm not buying it yet. The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. The Browns are 6-0 ATS following 1 or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland.
|
09-20-15 |
St Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3.5 |
|
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Washington Redskins +3.5
The Key: Underdogs coming off a loss against teams that are coming off a win have gone 51-37 ATS in Week 2 since 2003. Better yet, home underdogs coming off a loss against a team coming off a win in Week 2 since 2003 are 26-12 ATS. The St. Louis Rams are receiving roughly 82% of the spread bets in this one. This one-sided betting has pushed this line up past the key number of 3 to 3.5. The Rams are in a huge letdown spot here after beating the Seahawks last week and have fallen flat the next week off a big win under Jeff Fisher numerous times before. The Redskins looked good against the Dolphins last week in a 10-17 loss. They actually outgained the Dolphins by 93 total yards. It took a punt return TD for Miami to win that game and come back from a 10-0 deficit. The Redskins aren't as bad as they're perceived to be, while the Rams aren't as good as their result last week. This is a typical overreaction. Plays against teams off an upset win as a home underdog are 80-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Washington.
|
09-19-15 |
Ole Miss +7 v. Alabama |
Top |
43-37 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +7
The Key: Ole Miss went 9-4 last year and it would have been much better had injuries not struck them after a 7-0 start to the season. But Hugh Freeze has improved his team's record in each of his first three seasons in Oxford. Now he has his most talented team yet, and this is a veteran bunch with 16 returning starters. In fact, 19 of their starters this season are upperclassmen. Chad Kelly has been a big upgrade over Bo Wallace at quarterback to this point in leading the Rebels to a pair of impressive offensive showings to say the least. Ole Miss beat Tennessee-Martin 76-3 and Fresno State 73-21 in its first two contests. Alabama struggles with up-tempo, spread offenses like this one. I clearly give the edge to Ole Miss on offense. Alabama has questions at QB with Jake Coker, who is no more than a game manager. Ole Miss has a better defense than it gets credit for after giving up 16 points per game last year. I would actually make Ole Miss a favorite on a neutral field, and I believe Alabama's home field is getting too much credit here. Ole Miss beat Alabama last year with a worse team than it has this season. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years. Take Ole Miss.
|
09-19-15 |
California v. Texas UNDER 58 |
|
45-44 |
Loss |
-108 |
26 h 30 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *TOTAL* Annihilator on California/Texas UNDER 58
The Key: This line is jacked up because the perception is that Cal has an elite offense and no defense based off what it has done over the past two seasons. It's also way too high because Texas beat Rice 42-28 last week in a high-scoring affair. Well, Cal does have an elite offense, but its defense is vastly improved this season. There's no way Rice and Texas should have combined for 70 points when you look at the box score. Texas actually had just 277 total yards yet managed to score 42 points. It had two non-offensive touchdowns. The fact that Texas could only put up 277 yards on Rice just shows how poor its offense really is. In their last three games, Texas has now managed just 277 yards against Rice, 163 yards against Notre Dame, and 59 yards against Arkansas (in last year's bowl game). That's an average of just 166.3 yards per game. The Longhorns are clearly in shambles offensively right now, and Cal's improved defense will shut them down. I think Texas is good enough defensively to hold Cal to under 30 points in this one as well. Texas is 11-2 as an underdog over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Golden Bears last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The UNDER is 12-4 in Longhorns last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 11-4 in Longhorns last 15 home games. Take the UNDER.
|
09-19-15 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11 |
|
35-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday Big Chalk *BEATDOWN* on Arkansas -11
The Key: The public perception is way down on Arkansas right now after it lost to Toledo last week. Well, there's no way in hell the Razorbacks should have lost when you look at the box score. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and racked up 515 yards of offense, yet they only managed to score 12 points, which just doesn't add up. When you put up 500-plus yards of offense, it usually leads to 30-plus points. I still believe the Razorbacks are a very good team, and they'll be anxious to take out their frustration on Texas Tech this week. Arkansas beat Texas Tech 49-28 last year, and a similar beat down is in store. While the Red Raiders have a good offense, their defense remains atrocious. They only beat Sam Houston State 59-45 in their opener and gave up 637 yards of offense. That's right, they gave up 637 yards to SAM HOUSTON STATE and were outgained by 26 yards in the game. Arkansas is going to score and score at will against this soft Texas Tech defense, just as it did last year. The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12 opponents, which also includes a 31-7 win over Texas in their bowl game last year as they held the Longhorns to 59 total yards. Take Arkansas.
|
09-19-15 |
Nebraska v. Miami (Fla) -3 |
|
33-36 |
Push |
0 |
22 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* Nebraska/Miami ABC *CA$H COW* on Miami -3
The Key: Miami has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over Bethune-Cookman (45-0) and Florida Atlantic (44-20). I think this team is going to be better than most think, and that is already starting to show up against the oddsmakers. Nebraska is in a bit of a rebuilding phase with first-year head coach Mike Riley, and that was evident in a 33-28 home loss to BYU. Miami wants revenge from a 31-41 loss at Miami last year in which the Hurricanes racked up 435 yards of offense. Brad Kaaya was a freshman last year, and he lit up Nebraska for 359 yards and three touchdowns. But he did throw two interceptions that cost his team. Now a sophomore, Kaaya is primed for a big season and a big game Saturday. He won't make the same mistakes as last year, and he should light up this Nebraska defense again at home this time around. BYU racked up 511 total yards on Nebraska and 379 through the air. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 20 points or more. Take Miami.
|
09-19-15 |
Los Angeles Angels - Game #1 +107 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #1 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
107 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels +107 (Game 1)
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels are just 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League. They actually trail the Minnesota Twins, who are just 1.5 games back. This is obviously a huge series, and I'll back the better team with the better starter on the mound. The Twins have really choked here of late, losing three straight while giving up a combined 23 runs in the process. Andrew Heaney is having a fine season for Los Angeles, going 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 15 starts, and 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in six road starts. Kyle Gibson is having a solid season as well, but he's 0-2 with an 8.55 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in four lifetime starts against Los Angeles. He has given up 17 earned runs over 14 innings in his last three starts against the Angels. Los Angeles is 34-13 (+20.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 1-8 in Pelfreys last nine starts vs. American League West opponents. The Angels are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, and 5-0 in their last five visits to Minnesota. Take Los Angeles in Game 1.
|
09-19-15 |
South Florida +7 v. Maryland |
|
17-35 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 0 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *UPSET SPECIAL* on South Florida +7
The Key: Maryland surprised folks in the Big Ten last year by finishing 3rd in the stacked West Division. But this was a Maryland team that returned 16 starters last year with a ton of experience. Now Maryland has just 10 starters back and this is clearly a rebuilding year. That was evident in the Terrapins' 27-48 home loss to Bowling Green last week as 7-point favorites. They gave up a ridiculous 692 total yards to the Falcons and were actually outgained by 351 yards in the loss as their offense only managed 341. South Florida is a team on the rise entering Year 3 under Willie Taggart. He has done an excellent job in recruiting. After beating Florida A&M 51-3 in their opener, the Bulls hung tough with Florida State for four quarters on the road last week before eventually losing 14-34 as 28-point underdogs. This was a 7-7 game at the half and a 24-14 game in the 4th quarter. FSU is 31-1 over its past 32 games, so that was an impressive showing on the road by USF to say the least. I believe South Florida is actually the better team in this one and will win the game outright Saturday. USF is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off a game where it forced no turnovers. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. The Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take South Florida.
|
09-18-15 |
Florida State -7 v. Boston College |
Top |
14-0 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* FSU/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida State -7
The Key: Boston College is getting way too much love from the books here due to beating a pair of I-AA teams in Maine and Howard by a combined 100-3. When you consider the Eagles were 26-point favorites over Maine and 44-point favorites over Howard, it's easy to see how poor those two opponents really were. Now they take a big step up in competition against what I feel is the best team in the ACC in Florida State. The Seminoles have played two easy opponents too, but they've at least been FBS foes in Texas State and South Florida, and they've won a combined 93-30. South Florida is a better team than it gets credit for, too. Florida State has gone 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by at least two touchdowns. The Seminoles have been at least 14.5-point favorites in all five of those games, too. So now they are only 7-point favorites in 2015 and I believe there is some value here because of it. Take Florida State.
|
09-17-15 |
Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* DEN/KC Thursday Night *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42.5
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs finished 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense (17.6 PPG) last season despite playing most the year without linebacker Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry. Well, both are back this season and will help the Chiefs challenge for the league's top defense. Denver finished 3rd in the NFL in total defense last year and will once again be one of the league's top stop units in 2015 as almost everyone is back. Both defenses are off to resounding starts. The Chiefs held the Texans to 20 points in the opener, but 11 of those came in the 4th quarter when the came was already decided. The Broncos held the Ravens without an offensive touchdown in a 19-13 win in the opener. The only touchdown the Ravens scored came on an interception return. They held the Ravens to just 173 total yards in the win. Peyton Manning is on the decline and cannot get it done any more. He has failed to lead a touchdown drive in his past 21 drives dating back to the preseason. Alex Smith did not throw a TD pass to a wide receiver once last year, and he didn't in the opener against Houston, either. I look for this division rivalry game to be a defensive battle. The UNDER is 27-11 in Chiefs last 38 home games. The UNDER is 14-3 in Chiefs last 17 games in Week 2. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings. Take the UNDER.
|
09-17-15 |
Houston Astros +103 v. Texas Rangers |
|
2-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros +103
The Key: The Houston Astros are now 1.5 games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West standings after dropping each of the first three games of this series. They'll be hungry to avoid the sweep and avoid falling further behind with a win in Game 4 today. I like them to get the job done at a great price here as underdogs. Lance McCullers has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. McCullers is 5-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Colby Lewis is 15-8 in spite of a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts. Lewis has been the benefactor of good run support, but I don't expect that to happen today. Lewis gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Astros on August 3. Texas is 1-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Take Houston.
|
09-17-15 |
Clemson v. Louisville +6 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* Clemson/Louisville ACC *CA$H COW* on Louisville +6
The Key: Louisville is 0-2 and undervalued because of it. It has played a brutal schedule thus far with Houston and Auburn, and it played both of them tough, losing by a combined 10 points. The Cardinals are still one of the most talented teams in the ACC, and their goals are still right in front of them, which is winning the conference. They'll come back with an inspired effort tonight against Clemson to try and get their first win of the season. They'll also be looking to revenge last year's 17-23 loss at Clemson. The Tigers only managed 226 yards of offense in that game, but they score on an punt return touchdown and a fumble return TD. Clemson did not score one offensive touchdown in that game. Clemson has beaten Wofford and Appalachian State, which isn't impressive at all. The Tigers went 2-3 on the road last season with their only wins coming against Boston College (17-13) and Wake Forest (34-20). This is going to be a hostile Thursday night atmosphere in Louisville, which is going to really favor the home team. The Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. Take Louisville.
|
09-16-15 |
Houston Astros -147 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
3-14 |
Loss |
-147 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros -147
The Key: The Texas Rangers are in a letdown spot here. They just overtook the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West with another win behind some magic late last night. Sure, they want to extend the lead, but they will be feeling a sense of accomplishment and will let down today. I like the Astros to come back hungry today, and I also like the fact that they have a massive advantage on the mound. Dallas Keuchel is 17-7 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. Keuchel is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts versus Texas, including 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the Rangers in 2015. Martin Perez is probably the worst starter on Texas' staff, going 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 starts this year. The Astros are 9-1 in Keuchel's last 10 starts during game 3 of a series. Houston is 25-9 in Keuchel's last 34 starts overall. Take Houston.
|