Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Miami Dolphins -6.5 | 35-37 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Blowout on Dolphins -6.5 The Key: Minnesota has been a covering machine with against the spread wins in seven of its last eight, including four straight. With odds makers handing the Vikings this many points, it's clear they want the money on the Purple and Gold. I'm not taking the bait. While Minnesota has played well against a couple good teams (Green Bay and Detroit) during its covering streak, those teams weren't giving the Vikings their complete focus because they had already handled them in the first meeting. Plus, the Vikes have played a lot of weak competition during the second half of the season (Buccaneers, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Jets). Off back-to-back blowout losses to Baltimore and New England, the Dolphins will be highly motivated and will be looking to take their frustrations out on Minnesota. Miami has double-digit home wins over New England, San Diego and Buffalo this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 in their last six road games. You want to back teams like Miami that have forced one turnover or none in five consecutive games when they are playing a team that had a -2 turnover margin or worse last game. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1983. Lay the points. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +7 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +7 The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Chicago Bears, but I expect a strong performance from them in their final home game of the season versus a division rival. We are getting a good number here considering Chicago has won or lost by fewer than seven points in 10 of the last 13 meetings. Detroit is coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, and it could be peeking ahead to next week's matchup with Green Bay. The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games versus a team with a losing home record. You want to back December home underdogs or pickems that are off two or more consecutive spread losses. Doing so has produced a 96-57 ATS mark since 1983. *Note: Bears still a play without Cutler starting. |
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12-21-14 | Oregon State v. Quinnipiac -1.5 | 52-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Quinnipiac -1.5 The Key: This is a terrible spot for Oregon State. The Beavers just annihilated DePaul, and they have a lengthy eight-day break following this game so complete focus won't be there. To make matters worse, Oregon State has played only three games away from its home floor this season (just one true road game) and hasn't been further east than Las Vegas. Now, it's being asked to make the long cross-country trip with just two days of prep time. Oregon State won by eights points when it hosted Quinnipiac last December, which is all the more reason it will be overlooking the Bobcats, who will be jacked for this rematch. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Oregon State is on a 19-35 ATS slide following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span. |
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12-20-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 211.5 | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5 The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under. |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 52 m | Show |
7* NFL Total of the Month on Chargers/49ers Over 41.5 The Key: When the total is between 35.5 and 42.0 points, you want to play the OVER on home teams that allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored 14 points or less in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 57-24 mark since 1983, including a 3-0 record the last three seasons. In addition, when the line is 35.5 to 42.0 points, you want to play the OVER on any team (San Diego) that has gained 75 rushing yards or less in three straight games. Doing so has produced a 25-8 mark the last 10 seasons. Take the over. |
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12-20-14 | Wisconsin Milwaukee v. SIU-Edwardsville +1 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on SIU-Edwardsville +1 The Key: This is a bad spot for Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers have a big showdown at Arkansas Monday and will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand as a result. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 1-4 in games played away from home this season, including 0-3 in true road games. SIU-Edwardsville will be hungry as it tries to snap a seven game losing streak. It will also be excited to step back on its home floor, where it has performed just once in its last six games. The Cougars return four starters from a squad that went 9-5 at home last season. The Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take SIU-Edwardsville. |
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12-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Air Force | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
7* Potato Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -110 The Key: Western Michigan is the more complete team on both sides of the football. The Broncos match up very well with Air Force's one-dimensional offense. They ranked a respectable 37th nationally against the run this season, and having had a month to prepare, I like their chances or slowing down Air Force's ground game. Western Mich is balanced and explosive offensively, and that doesn't bode well for the Falcons, who are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons when playing away from home versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. They have lost these six games by an average score of 40.0 to 16.3. Air Force's best shot is too force turnovers, which is something it hasn't done very well this season. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS the last three seasons away from home after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none. The Broncos had cover the spread in 10 straight games before losing to Northern Illinois Nov. 28. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Western Mich. |
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12-19-14 | Arizona v. UTEP +6 | 60-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on UTEP +6 The Key: This is a tough spot for Arizona, which is playing its third game in seven days and its first true road game of the season. The Wildcats are on a 1-8 ATS slide in road games when playing a third game in a week. UTEP has never lost as a home underdog or pickem under coach Tim Floyd, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in the role while winning by an average score of 72.4 to 67.6. Take the points. |
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12-19-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Detroit Pistons +8 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +8 The Key: The Pistons hold major motivational edges in this game. They will be highly motivated tonight as they try to snap an ugly 11-game losing streak at home. They'll also be fueled by a three-game losing streak to the Raptors. Toronto will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Pistons on the road. We saw this in its most recent road game when it defeated the Knicks by only five points. Toronto is off a 105-89 win over Brooklyn but is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 52-20 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40.5 | 13-21 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Thursday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Titans/Jaguars Over 40.5 The Key: When the total is 35.5 to 42.0 points, playing the OVER on road teams that are off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by an average of 10.0 ppg or more on the season has produced a 53-23 mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 the last three seasons. In addition, Tennessee is 9-1 OVER the last three seasons after being held to 17 points or less in two straight games. Take the over. |
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12-18-14 | Wright State v. Western Carolina +2.5 | Top | 69-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Western Carolina +2.5 The Key: Western Carolina is a much better team than its 3-7 record might lead you to believe. The Catamounts have suffered from playing just one home game so far so they'll be extremely excited to get back on their home floor tonight. This team has performed exceptionally at home where they went 11-2 last season. They are also the more battle tested team because of their challenging early season schedule, and I believe they'll perform better down the stretch as a result. Wright State is 3-2 in true road games, but the Catamounts are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that Wright State is 1-9 ATS the last two seasons in road games that follow two consecutive non-conference contests. The Raiders have lost by an average score of 72.1 to 68.8 in this spot. Take the points for insurance, but I like Western Carolina outright tonight. |
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12-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Denver Nuggets +1.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +1.5 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including a 108-96 loss in Houston Dec. 13, the Nuggets will bounce back strong at home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. The Nuggets are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 home games versus teams with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 10.2 points. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four visits to the Mile High City. Take Denver. |
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12-17-14 | Tennessee v. NC State -4.5 | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on NC State -4.5 The Key: This is a bad spot for Tennessee as it plays its first true road game of the season against a highly motivated NC State squad and just two days removed from a big win over Butler. I expect maximum effort and focus from the Wolfpack following a bad loss to Wofford. NC State returns three starters from a team that won by seven at Tennessee last season. The Vols bring back just one starter from that team. The Wolfpack are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games after forcing eight turnovers or less in their previous game. The Volunteers are 1-5-1 ATS this season. Lay the points. |
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12-16-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +7.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Kings +7.5 The Key: The Thunder have been rolling since the return of Durant and Westbrook, but this is a tough situation for them. They are playing their fourth game in six and have a big one at Golden State on deck. The Kings have had the last two days off so they will be the fresher side. I also expect maximum effort in the wake of Michael Malone's firing. Fading favorites off two straight double digits wins in a matchup of teams with +/- 3.0 ppg differentials has resulted in a 37-11 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-16-14 | Tennessee State +15 v. Southern Illinois | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tennessee State +15 The Key: Tennessee State is in a good spot. The Tigers have had nine days to prepare for a team they've already seen this season. They lost the first meeting by 17 points but are on a 27-10 ATS run in road games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. Southern Illinois just played Sunday and will have a strong tendency to look right past the Tigers because it handled them in the first go-around. Tennessee State is 12-4 ATS in all lined road games the last two seasons, including 6-0 ATS during this span following three consecutive games as an underdog. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after three or more consecutive losses. Take the points. |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 54 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 77 h 42 m | Show | |
6* NFL Total of the Week on Saints/Bears Under 54 The Key: You want to play the UNDER on teams off an upset loss (New Orleans) in a second half of the season matchup between teams with win percentages of 25% to 40%. Doing so has produced a 40-15 (73%) mark since 1983. In addition, you want to play the UNDER on road teams in the second half of the season when the total is 49.5 or higher if they've gone over the number by 21 points or more total in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 43-16 (73%) mark since 1983. The Saints are 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 375.0 ypg or more under coach Sean Payton. Take the UNDER. |
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12-15-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Indiana Pacers -6 | 91-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pacers -6 The Key: This is a tough situation for the Lakers, who are playing their second road game in as many days and third in four days. Indiana has been at home and had Sunday off so it should be the fresher side. The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. The Pacers should also be the hungrier side as they try to snap an eight-game slide. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Monday games. The Pacers are 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning them by an average of 8.4 points. Lay the points. |
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12-14-14 | Phoenix Suns +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +6.5 The Key: OKC is being overvalued at home following a five-game win streak that has coincided with the return of its two stars. The Suns have given the Thunder problems, winning the last two meetings. The Suns are in the midst of a four-game slide but none of the losses have come by more than six points. Phoenix is on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog and is 9-1 ATS in road games following a loss of six points or less the last two seasons. Take the points. |
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12-14-14 | Butler v. Tennessee +1 | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on Tennessee +1 The Key: Tennessee has been an awesome investment at home in games odds makers expect to be close, going 27-13 ATS in home games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Volunteers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games while the Bulldogs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Tennessee was able to get the "W" at home versus K-State last time out but did not cover. That sets up a strong trend this afternoon as teams headed up by coach Tyndall are 15-3 ATS off a home win in a game they didn't cover. |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10 The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
6* Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Bills +5.5 The Key: Green Bay is being overvalued on the road where it has just one win of more than three points this season. The Bills are coming off a loss in Denver but are 12-1 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons, winning these games by an average score of 26.5 to 17.8. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past six meetings by nine points or more. Take the points. |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +8 v. New England Patriots | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
6* AFC East Annihilator on Dolphins +8 The Key: New England is being overvalued here because it is a public team. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings, and I expect them to give the Patriots a game here. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home and 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Miami is 6-0 ATS eight games or more into the season the last two seasons versus teams that average 260.0 passing yards per game or more, defeating these teams by an average score of 28.8 to 20.5. This trend speaks to how well the Dolphins have defended the pass. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have gained 99 rushing yards or fewer in each of their last three games when they're up against a team that was outrushed by 100 yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points. |
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12-13-14 | Cincinnati v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Nebraska -4.5 The Key: This is a difficult spot for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are playing their first true road game of the season and it comes after a long 10-day layoff. Cincy is 0-6 ATS when playing on seven days of rest or more under coach Cronin. Nebraska let in-state rival Creighton beat it twice as it did not show up following its disappointing loss to the Blue Jays and went down on its home floor to Incarnate Word. As if that ugly loss isn't enough motivation, the Cornhuskers will also be fueled by last season's 74-59 loss at Cincinnati. Cincy has done a poor job of forcing turnovers this season and is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons after four straight games of forcing 14 or less turnovers. Nebraska is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pickem over the last two seasons, winning these games by an average score of 72.0 to 59.9. Lay the points. |
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12-13-14 | Army v. Navy UNDER 56 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF "Total" Annihilator on Army/Navy Under 56 The Key: I think odds makers have set the bar too high. Army has finished at or over this number in each of its last three games. Navy has finished above this number in each of its last five games. However, we tend to see much lower scoring games when these two rivals meet. The UNDER is 8-0 in the eight meetings with 48 total points or fewer scored in each. Besides this being a rivalry game, both teams getting extra time to prepare has been a big reason for all the unders. Navy is 8-0 UNDER as a neutral field favorite under coach Niumatalo. The Midshipmen are 7-0 UNDER the last three seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 25% to 40% and 6-0 UNDER the last three seasons when checking in off a road win. Army is 7-0 UNDER the last three season against teams with a winning record. |
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12-12-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Phoenix Suns OVER 203 | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Suns Over 203 The Key: When these teams met in Detroit last month, we saw just 174 total points scored, but they combined for only 33 points from beyond the arc and only 23 points from the free throw line. Keep in mind these teams average 54 points combined per game on three-pointers and 33 points on free throws. In other words, they are averaging 31 more points per game in these areas than we saw in the first meeting. Add those 31 points to the total score of the first meeting, and we get 205. So we are getting a good number here. Plus, we can also take into consideration that neither team is defending well. The Pistons have allowed 103.6 points over their last eight games, and the Suns are allowing 106.7 points over their last nine games. Phoenix is 8-1 over this season versus teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more, and we have seen an average of 219.9 total points scored in these contests. The Suns are 9-1 over the last two season when playing against teams with a win percentage of 25% or worse, and we have seen 213.2 total points scored in these games. Take the over. |
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12-11-14 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 196 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Rockets/Kings Over 196 The Key: We saw just 191 total points scored when these teams met in Houston last month. The Kings went to DeMarcus Cousins in the post a lot in that game, but they'll be looking to run more without him in the lineup. The Rockets just played last night, and the Kings are playing for the third time in four days. Neither team has fresh legs, and defense is the first thing to go when that's the case. Houston is 18-4 over off a road loss over the last two seasons, and we have seen an average of 212.7 total points scored in these contests. Also, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -4 | 12-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams -4 The Key: The Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer under center. They have been outgained by an average of 94.7 yards over their last three games, and the ineptitude of the offense is starting to affect the defense. The Rams enter this matchup full of confidence. They've won two straight, three of four and five of eight with quality wins over Seattle and Denver during this stretch. St. Louis will be hungry here as it looks to avenge last month's blowout loss in Arizona. The Cardinals have lost their last two on the road to Seattle and Atlanta by double digits while the Rams have won their last three at home against Seattle, Denver and Oakland. The Rams have also won their last two home games against the Cardinals. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and matched up against a conference opponent. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points. |
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12-11-14 | Idaho v. Western Illinois -112 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Illinois -112 The Key: Western Illinois is 2-5 but has played just three home games and has been competitive in all three, winning two. The Leathernecks are home following back-to-back losses on the road and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column. They'll draw added motivated from last season's 67-63 loss at Idaho. Western Illinois was the better team in that matchup but it shot just 2 of 11 from three-point range and 17 of 28 from the foul line. I expect much better shooting from the Leathernecks here as they are averaging seven three-point makes per game on the season. The Vandals have won their last two with their last win coming at home over Cal Davis, but they are 17-28 ATS off a home win under coach Don Verlin. Recently, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a cover. Take Western Illinois. |
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12-10-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers +7 | 103-96 | Push | 0 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Pacers +7 The Key: The Pacers are extremely disappointed with how they performed last game. They returned home following an 0-4 road trip looking to get back on track but were hit in the mouth by Atlanta instead. I expect an inspired performance in the wake of that loss. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day of rest. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Central division opponents. Take the points. |
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12-10-14 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets -2.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Hornets -2.5 The Key: This is a superior spot for Charlotte, which has had the last four days off to get healthy and to get prepared for this matchup. Boston is playing its third game in four days with the last one going to double overtime. The Hornets will have the fresher legs. Boston has been playing uptempo basketball, trying to outscore its opponents, but Charlotte has done an excellent job controlling the tempo against such teams and is on a 27-14 ATS run versus up-tempo teams that average 83 shots per game or more. Lay the points. |
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12-10-14 | Kansas v. Georgetown -2.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (FOXS1) on Georgetown -2.5 The Key: Georgetown will be out for revenge for last season's 22-point loss at Kansas. The Hoyas are a different team at home, and that's why we see them favored over the 10th-ranked team in the country. The Hoyas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games while the Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Big 12 while the Jayhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Big East. Kansas checks in off a nice win over Florida but is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. The Hoyas are off a blowout of Towson State and are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a win of more than 20 points. Lay the points. |
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12-09-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
6* NBA Bailout on Lakers -2.5 The Key: Motivated by three consecutive blowout losses, the Lakers should take care of business against a Sacramento team that hasn't been the same since the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. The Lakers should also benefit from fresher legs. Sacramento played last night while L.A. had the night off. The Lakers have had plenty of success against the Kings and are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. Lay the points. |
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12-09-14 | South Dakota +16.5 v. Creighton | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on South Dakota +16.5 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Creighton following Sunday's big win over in-state rival Nebraska. Plus, it has had just one day to prepare for this contest while South Dakota has had three. You want to fade home favorites or pickems off an upset win on the road if they have a win percentage of .600 to .800 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .200 to .400. Doing so has produced a 45-18 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Coyotes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points. |
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12-09-14 | Miami Heat +5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Heat +5 The Key: This is a bad spot for Phoenix, which will be playing a second game in as many nights and a fourth in five days. To make matters worse, last night's game with the Clippers went to overtime so I don't see the Suns having enough left in the tank to cover this number. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Take the points. |
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12-08-14 | Phoenix Suns +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +7.5 The Key: This line is inflated due to LA's run of five consecutive covers. Consider that the Clippers are just 22-43 ATS since 1996 after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The Clippers are also 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning road record. The Suns are coming off a loss in Houston but are an impressive 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games following an ATS loss. That game, however, was Phoenix's second in as many days. While playing three games in four days is no picnic, the Suns have thrived in such spots under Hornacek, going 22-10 ATS and winning by an average score of 105.7 to 101.9. They are also 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 games when playing on one day of rest. The Suns are 31-16 ATS as a dog under Hornacek and 23-11 ATS as a road underdog under their current coach. You want to take road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed by 15 points or more at halftime of the previous game. Doing so has produced an 81-36 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points. |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Green Bay Packers -13 | 37-43 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers -13 The Key: This may seem like a lot of points, but the Packers are 6-0 this season at Lambeau and have won these games by an average score of 40.8 to 17.7. They have a significant edge tonight because this week be Atlanta's first cold weather game in a very long time. The Falcons upset Arizona last week, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 3-13 ATS since 1992 following an upset victory at home. The grass has been good to Aaron Rodgers are company as they are 7-0 ATS on grass this season, winning these games by an average score of 38.8 to 18.4. The Packers are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a stretch of six or seven wins in an eight-game span. They have won these six by an average score of 34.7 to 15.3. It's also worth noting that Green Bay is 11-3 ATS when laying 10.5 to 14.0 points at home under coach McCarthy and has won these contests by an average score of 35.2 to 12.2. Lay the points. |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers +4 | 23-14 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +4 The Key: New England hasn't fared well on grass. We saw it again last Sunday in Green Bay. The Patriots are now 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on grass and have lost the last seven of these by an average of 8.6 points. New England has also been susceptible on the road where it is 3-3. The Chargers are 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just three points to the Chiefs. Home field has been big in this series as well. The home team has won or lost by fewer than four points in nine of the last 10, including five straight. The Chargers have won or lost by fewer than four points each of the last four times they've hosted the Patriots. Take the points. |
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12-07-14 | California v. Nevada +6 | 63-56 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Nevada +6 The Key: This is Nevada's first home game since Nov. 17, and it will be jacked up as a result. Not only will it be out to end a five-game losing streak, but it will also be out for revenge for last season's eight-point loss at Cal. You want to fade favorites like Cal that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they have a win percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a win percentage of 20% to 40%. Doing so has produced a 44-17 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-07-14 | Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 84-96 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +5.5 The Key: Atlanta is 12-6 but wouldn't be if it played in the much stronger Western Conference. The Hawks are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 versus the West and 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the NBA Northwest division. The Nuggets are off a bad loss at Washington where they couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the performance was an outlier because they had been played exceptional in their previous nine games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day of rest. You want to back road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced an 81-35 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is just 11-23 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more. |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +2.5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 57 m | Show |
7* NFC Non-division Game of the Year on Redskins +2.5 The Key: After a strong showing in San Francisco, the Redskins were smacked in Indianapolis last week. That result bodes well for us here considering December home underdogs or pickems off a road loss of 14 points or more are 78-42 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are just 2-4 on the road where they are averaging only 17.5 points and allowing 25.5 points. Pass defense has been the weakness of the St. Louis defense, and it will be tested by a Washington passing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL with 260.5 yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. This is significant because the Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games versus teams that average 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by an average of 22.0 points. St. Louis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. It has benefited from turnovers. However, the Redskins have a plus-three turnover margin in the games McCoy has played. Take Washington. |
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12-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Cleveland Browns +4 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 26 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Browns +4 The Key: The Colts rolled over Washington last week while the Browns laid an egg in Buffalo. However, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against an opponent that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 14 points. While the Johnny Football talk is heating up, I'm happy to have Brian Hoyer here. The Browns are 8-4 ATS with him under center at home and 9-4 ATS as an underdog. They are 9-1 ATS with Hoyer under center versus teams like the Colts that give up 20.6-26.6 points per game. Take the points. |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 52.5 | Top | 0-59 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Total of the Year on Ohio State/Wisconsin Under 52.5 The Key: Ohio State has finished over the total in 10 of its last 11 games. Wisconsin has finished over the number in five of its last seven. As a result, we are getting a great number. The Ohio State offense struggled in its first game without Braxton Miller, and I expect to see similar offensive struggles in Cardale Jones' first extensive action. Wisconsin is one of the best defensive teams in the entire nation, ranking 2nd in total defense (260.3 ypg) and 4th in scoring defense (16.9 ppg). Urban Meyer knows he must take a conservative approach to give his team the best opportunity to win against the stout Wisconsin defense. Ohio State also boasts an elite defense, one that ranks 19th in total "D" (333.5 ypg) and 29th in scoring "D" (22.9 ppg). Ohio State will be able to sell out on the run because it has athletes in the secondary who can more than hold their own. With both teams very likely to stick to their ground attacks, the clock will keep moving. The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. It is also 6-2 in the Buckeyes' last eight neutral site games. Take the under. |
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12-06-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -9 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pistons -9 The Key: The Pistons have been a major disappointment thus far, but this is a fantastic spot for them. Not only will Detroit be motivated by a 10-game slide, but it will also be fueled by an embarrassing 25-point loss the last time it faced the 76ers. The Pistons have had two days to regroup and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest. The 76ers have covered the spread in six of their last seven and are starting to lose value as a result. This is the second game of a back-to-back for them, a spot that hasn't treated the well. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 17-32 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lay the number. |
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12-06-14 | Temple -3 v. Tulane | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 54 h 39 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on Temple -3 The Key: Not only is Temple the better team, it will also be the more motivated side. It can reach bowl eligibility with a win, and that's all the motivation it will need here. Temple has been let down by its offense, but it shouldn't need many points to take care of business in this one. Tulane ranks 119th in the nation in scoring offense with 17.2 ppg, and it should have trouble getting much of anything against a stout Temple stop unit that ranks 11th in the nation in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed. You want to back road favorites that held their last opponent to 14 points or less if they are up against a team that has allowed 31 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 49-19 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5 v. Miami (FL) | Top | 68-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5 The Key: Miami is 8-0 and high on the horse following a big win over Illinois and is susceptible here as a result. I expect the Hurricanes to get caught looking right past a Wisconsin Green Bay squad that was kicked by Georgia State Thursday. That was just one of those rare games where the Phoenix couldn't throw it in the ocean. They shot just 28.8% from the field after shooting 50% or better in three of their previous four games. The Phoenix are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last four games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. Brian Wardle is one of the best coaches you don't know much about. Playing a second game in three days might seem like a tough situation, but Wardle's ability to prepare and motivate has allowed the Phoenix to thrive in such situations. In fact, his Wis-GB teams are 27-7 ATS all-time when playing a second game in three days and have won these games by an average score of 69.4 to 65.7. Take the points. |
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12-06-14 | Houston +7 v. Cincinnati | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 46 h 11 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Early Annihilator on Houston +7 The Key: Cincinnati is being overvalued at home because it enters on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak. I'll gladly take the points with a Houston team that is 10-0 ATS in its last road games. The Cougars lost by more than seven points just once during this stretch (an 8-point loss at BYU) so we are getting a very favorable number. Houston is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 34.0 ppg or more under coach Levine, winning these games by an average score of 30.0 to 22.5. Take the points. |
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12-05-14 | Houston Rockets v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* NBA Game of the Week on Timberwolves +7 The Key: Off a big win over Memphis and with a matchup against Phoenix tomorrow night, Houston won't give Minnesota its full attention. The Rockets have a 12-point win over Minnesota this season in Mexico City so it will be easy for them to look right past the Timberwolves here. I expect the T-Wolves to be extremely motivated after losing to the then 0-17 76ers. That's the type of embarrassing loss that gets a teams attention. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, you want to fade Friday night favorites that are off a home win against a division rival as doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +7 | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Bowling Green +7 The Key: Bowling Green is a better team than it has showed in its last two games. It already had the MAC East sewed up and motivation was clearly an issue. Those losses bode well for us here as they have contributed to us catching a good number. Remember that Bowling Green clocked Northern Illinois 47-27 in last season's MAC title game. While the Huskies will be out for revenge, and may get it, they aren't seven points better than this Bowling Green squad. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home in the second half of the season. They are also on a 13-4 ATS run in games played away from home following an upset loss in conference play. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight December contests. In conference matchups, you want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss of 10 points or more to a conference opponent. Doing so has produced a 49-21 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have lost by only 3.1 points on average. Take the points. |
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12-05-14 | Wyoming v. SMU -4.5 | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Annihilator on SMU -4.5 The Key: We are getting a good number with SMU at home because it has yet to cover a spread this season. The Mustangs defeated Wyoming by eight points on the road last season, and I'm expecting them to take care of business by at least that many here. SMU has come up short against each of the first three quality opponents its faced so it will be going after this one with all its got. First road games are often times shaky. Wyoming has yet to set food outside of its own gym for a game this season, and that makes this an even tougher spot for the Cowboys. Plus, the Mustangs are more battle tested. The Cowboys have played just one high-caliber opponent (Colorado). We have some nice history on our side as Wyoming is 38-60 ATS since 1997 when it heads out on the road following a home win. It is 10-23 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins since 1997 and has lost by an average score of 76.4 to 67.0 in this situation. Lay the points. |
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12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +4 | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +4 The Key: Dallas hasn't shown me that it deserves to be laying more than a field goal in Chicago. It is 4-0 in true road games this season but has won by just three points in two of its last three. And, it hasn't fared well against the Bears, who are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. The Cowboys have been a terrible favorite under coach Garrett at 12-27 ATS in the role. With last Thursday's home blowout loss to Philadelphia, the Cowboys fell to 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games as well as 0-4 ATS in their last four versus NFC foes. In addition, Dallas is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus teams that give up 6.0 yards per play or more and has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.3 to 28.4. Take the points. |
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12-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks +7.5 | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
6* NBA National TV Annihilator on Knicks +7.5 The Key: The Cavs haven't played on the road since Nov. 21, and they are just 3-3 in their previous six road games with just one of the wins coming by more than this number. The Knicks won the first meeting, spoiling LeBron James' homecoming. While Cleveland will be out for revenge, that angle has been figured into this number, overfigured. The Knicks will be highly motivated too as they try to end a five-game skid. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Take the points. |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Missouri State -6.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri State -6.5 The Key: The Bears haven't played at home since Nov. 19 so they will be excited to get back in front of their fans. They've lost three of four since a 2-0 start at home and will be looking for a dominant performance tonight. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following three or more consecutive games away from home and 12-3 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of three losses in four games. Arkansas-LR is 4-1 but has benefited from a soft schedule. Now it finds itself in the road underdog role, which hasn't been kind. The Trojans are 49-70 ATS as a road dog or pickem under coach Shields, including 10-23 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12.0 points. Lay the number. |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida v. East Carolina -6.5 | 32-30 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Thursday NCAAF National TV Annihilator on East Carolina -6.5 The Key: You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off back-to-back conference victories when they are matched up against an opponent that's off a double-digit win on the road. Doing so has produced a 45-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 15.4 points. UCF has struggled when it hasn't been able to run the football. We've seen that in each of its losses. The Knights average only 3.1 rushing yards per game and don't figure to get anything easy against an ECU defense that has held opponents to 3.2 yards per carry on the season. In a conference matchup, you want to fade teams that average just 3.0 to 3.5 yards per carry when they are up against a team that holds its opponents to 3.0 to 3.5 yards per carry. Doing so has produced a 52-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-03-14 | Creighton v. Tulsa -1 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tulsa -1 The Key: Creighton is off to a nice 6-1 start, but it will miss the presence of Doug McDermott in its first true road game of the season. Not only will Tulsa be motivated by back-to-back losses, it will also be fueled by last season's 10-point loss at Creighton. The Golden Hurricane have been outstanding at home, where they are 6-0 in their last six and 13-1 in their last 14. The Blue Jays have really been living with the three-point shot in the early going. In fact, 44% of their shot attempts are coming from beyond the arc. That bodes well for us because Tulsa has given high-volume three-point shooting teams fits. It is 12-2 ATS versus teams that attempt 21 three-point shots per game or more over the last three seasons and has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.9 to 61.5. Take Tulsa. |
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12-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
6* NBA *SITUATIONAL SLAM DUNK* on Hornets +3.5 The Key: This is a favorable situation for Charlotte. The Hornets will undoubtedly be the fresher side having had the last three days off. The Bulls, on the other hand, will be feeling the effects of last night's double-OT contest with Dallas. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Bulls are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points. |
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12-03-14 | Butler v. Indiana State +7.5 | 77-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Indiana State +7.5 The Key: Butler is being overvalued following a good showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. This is its first true road game of the season, and I believe it is in danger of being upset. Indiana State has been one tough cookie at home, where it has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 58 of its last 63 games. Now that's a 58-5 trend I'm not hesitating to get behind. The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the points. |
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12-02-14 | Middle Tennessee +9 v. Belmont | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Middle Tennessee State +9 The Key: Middle Tennessee State is 30-15 ATS after a double-digit defeat under coach Kermit Davis and has won by an average score of 72.4 to 65.0 in these games. It is also 10-2 ATS under Davis after being held to 60 points or less in two straight games. In addition, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a win of three points or less and are up against an opponent that trailed by 15 points or more at the half of its previous game. Doing so has produced a 43-17 ATS mark the last five seasons. MTSU was upset at home by Belmont last season and will be looking for a little payback here. Take the points. |
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12-02-14 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5 The Key: Boston is coming off a 22-point loss to the reigning NBA champion Spurs, which is actually a good thing for us. Consider that road teams off a blowout loss of 15 points that average 103.0 ppg or more on the season are 123-70 (64%) ATS since 1996. The Hawks are off a 30-point win over Charlotte and the game was never in doubt as they led big at the half. That bodes well for us too as fading home teams that led their previous game by 20 points or more at halftime has produced a 98-56 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-01-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz +3 | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3 The Key: The Nuggets are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won six of their last seven games. Utah has lost five straight and will be hungry as a result. I really like its chances of winning this one outright considering it has won 31 of the last 38 at home in the series. The Jazz are 14-3 ATS the last three seasons after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games. In addition, when the line is +3 to -3 you want to fade road teams off two or more consecutive overs if they average 102.0 ppg or more and are playing a team that allows 98.0-102.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Jets +7 The Key: This line is an overreaction to New York's poor performance last Monday night in Detroit versus Buffalo. Consider that the Jets have won or lost by seven points or less in 29 of their last 33 meetings with the Dolphins. You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season that have a win percentage of 25% or worse, have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 51-20 ATS mark since 1983. In addition, the Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday Night Football games. Take the points. |
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12-01-14 | South Carolina v. Marshall +7 | 77-59 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Annihilator on Marshall +7 The Key: Marshall will be highly motivated tonight. It has lost its last three games. Plus, it was crushed 92-65 at South Carolina last season. This is South Carolina's first true road game of the season, and I think it will have a tough time getting up for it given the result of last year's meeting. The Gamecocks are 16-39-2 ATS in their last 57 games following an ATS win while the Thundering Herd are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Teams headed up by Frank Martin are 2-12 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 16.0 assists per game or more. Take the points. |
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11-30-14 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 | 29-16 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 29 m | Show | |
6* SNF *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +1.5 The Key: At home, and with an opportunity to pull even with the Broncos in the division, I like Kansas City to take care of business. The Broncos have experienced some difficulties on the road where they have been blown out in two of their last three. The Chiefs have been dominant at home, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four with wins over the Patriots and Seahawks during this stretch. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus winning teams. The Broncos won the season's first meeting clear back in Week 2. However, you want to back home teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss when they check in off an upset loss. Doing so has produced a 74-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take Kansas City. |
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11-30-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 195 | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Kings Under 195 The Key: The Grizzlies combined with Portland for 211 points in their last game. The Kings combined with San Antonio for 216. And, these teams combined for 221 points in the season's first meeting. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. Memphis has been at its best defensively on the road where it is giving up only 89.9 ppg. It is also worth noting that the Grizzlies haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging just 94.5 ppg. The Kings have been a far better defensive team at home where they are holding opponents to 97.2 ppg. Prior to this season's meeting, these teams had combined for 188 points or less in four straight matchups. The under is 6-0 in the Kings' last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. The under is 3-0-1 in the Grizzlies' last four games following a win of more than 10 points and 3-0-1 in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 18-3 under as a road favorite under coach Joerger, and we have seen just 182.3 total points scored on average in these games. |
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11-30-14 | California v. Fresno State +7 | 64-57 | Push | 0 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Fresno State +7 The Key: Fresno State will be the hungrier team as it looks to end a four-game losing streak and avenge last season's loss at Cal. The Bulldogs have been a fantastic investment in bounce-back spots, going 36-17-3 ATS in their last 56 games following a loss. They have also been an outstanding underdog at 27-14 ATS in the role the last three seasons. Cal is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games versus teams averaging 12.0 assists per game or less, losing these contests by an average score of 76.5 to 68.5. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS after two straight games with five steals or less under coach Terry. Take the points. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +1.5 The Key: Arizona isn't the same team with Drew Stanton under center. He struggled in Seattle last week, and I expect those struggles to continue in Atlanta. The Falcons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL statistically but have shown improvement in recent weeks and have been able to come up with a lot of turnovers. They've held their last four foes to an average of 20.5 points and have forced eight turnovers the last three weeks. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.0 yards per play or more in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 28.0 to 21.4 in this spot. Atlanta is at home, where the combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan has been very good over the years, and it still has a great chance to win the NFC South. Take Atlanta. |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
6* NFL Public Burial on Buccaneers +4 The Key: This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, which is playing its third road game in as many weeks. I think it will have a difficult time focusing on the task at hand with a big divisional showdown against Pittsburgh looming. You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse, have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark since 1983. The Bucs have won six straight over the Bengals and have a good opportunity to extend the streak. Take the points. |
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11-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +6 | 112-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +6 The Key: This is a good spot to back the Jazz. The Clippers are off a big win in Houston last night, which puts them in danger of a letdown. Furthermore, this is their second road game in as many days and their fifth in seven days. This is the last game of a seven-game road trip so the Clippers will be happy to return home and will likely be more focused on that rather than the task at hand, especially since they have won 10 straight against the Jazz. Utah will be highly motivated to end that streak, and it will be the fresher side having had the last two days off. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 4-17-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Utah. Take the points. |
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11-29-14 | VCU v. Old Dominion +5.5 | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Old Dominion +5.5 The Key: This is VCU's first true road game of the season, and it will have a tough time making it out alive. Old Dominion has lost four straight in the series and will be highly motivated as a result. The Monarchs have been an outstanding investment at home where they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning S.U. record, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The key to victory for Old Dominion is taking care of the basketball against VCU's pressure. The Monarchs have done a great job of taking care of the rock thus far and have had nine turnovers or fewer in three of their last four games. Take the points. |
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11-29-14 | BYU v. California -4 | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 38 m | Show | |
6* Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Cal -4 The Key: Cal has lost five of six but still has an opportunity to become bowl eligible with a win in its final home game of the season. I like its chances. BYU has rebounded from a four-game losing streak to win its last three, but the competition wasn't good. The Cougars take a big step up in competition here and won't be ready. BYU has been fade material off a win as it is 6-15 ATS following a victory over the last three seasons. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Pac-12 opponents. Lay the points. |
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11-29-14 | Kentucky +13 v. Louisville | 40-44 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
6* ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Kentucky +13 The Key: Playing a rival is enough motivation, but Kentucky has a chance to become bowl eligible with a win, which adds fuel to the fire. It has had an extra week to prepare for this contest, and I expect the Wildcats to give the Cardinals a game. Louisville is 0-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games occurring after the first month of the season. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a stretch of three wins in a four-game span. Louisville is off a big win at Notre Dame, during which it outrushed the Fighting Irish by 130 yards. This is significant because it is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons after outrushing an opponent by 125 or more yards. Take the points. |
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11-29-14 | Cincinnati v. Temple +7 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Temple +7 The Key: I love Temple in this spot. The Owls are at home on Senior Day needing a win to become bowl eligible and seeking revenge for last season's 18-point loss at Cincinnati. Needless to say, they will be extremely motivated. Temple has been tough at home where it defeated East Carolina by double digits and played Memphis to a three-point game. Under coach Rhule, Temple is 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. It is also 6-0 ATS under Rhule versus teams that average 425.0 ypg or more. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points. |
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11-28-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Hornets +9 | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +9 The Key: The Hornets will be highly motivated as they look to bring their seven-game losing streak to an end. Adding fuel to the fire is a 112-87 loss at Golden State Nov. 11. I expect the Hornets to show much better at home where they have won or lost by fewer than nine points in nine straight against the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points. |
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11-28-14 | Navy v. South Alabama +10 | Top | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Black Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +10 The Key: This line is inflated due to South Alabama's 0-6 ATS slide. The Jaguars have won their last three home games, and they'll be lacking no motivation on senior day. They were smashed 42-14 at Navy last season, and that embarrassing loss will be the driving force behind a strong effort on Senior Day. Navy hasn't played a true road games since Oct. 4 so it will be out of its comfort zone. You want to fade road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more when they are up against a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg if the fade team allowed 6.25 yards per play or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 27-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 11.1 points on average but have won by only 4.3 points on average. Take the points. |
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11-28-14 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Dartmouth -2 | 67-68 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Annihilator on Dartmouth -2 The Key: Dartmouth dropped its first two games, but this is its home opener and it's had over a week to prepare. The Big Green have taken on IUPU Fort Wayne each of the past three seasons and came up short each time so they will be seeking revenge, which is perhaps the best motivator of all. Dartmouth returns basically its entire team, including three double-digit scorers, and you want to back teams in the first 10 games of the season with four starters returning when the line is +3 to -3 after a game where they were held to 50 points or less. Doing so has produced a 56-24 ATS mark since 1997. Lay the points. |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 54.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
7* NFL Total of the Year on Eagles/Cowboys Under 54.5 The Key: The Eagles have finished over the total in each of their last four games, and the Cowboys have finished over the number in their last two. However, with first place on the line in the NFC East, I expect to see a hard-fought game come in under the number. Division opponents typically know each other well. That has certainly been the case with these two as they have finished under this number in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The Eagles are one of the highest scoring teams in the league but are 5-1 under in their last six division games. When the line is 49.5 or more in division games, you want to play the under on road teams that have gone over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games. Doing so has produced a 30-8 mark since 1983. Take the under. |
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11-27-14 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Turkey Day "Total" Annihilator on Bears/Lions Over 47 The Key: Detroit has been an unders machine this season, finishing below the number in nine of its last 10. The unders streak has been a combination of the defense being really good and the offense being subpar. With that said, I like the Detroit offense to get going here against a Chicago defense that ranks 30th in the NFL with 27.5 points per game allowed. Chicago has been terrible in pass defense, and that plays right into the hands of the Detroit offense. The Bears have to win out to have any chance at the postseason. That may also be the case for Trestman to keep his job. After a putrid offensive performance, I expect Trestman to really open up the playbook to give his squad a chance. The Bears are 7-0 over in road games after a win under Trestman. They are 6-0 over after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better under their current coach. Chicago is 7-0 over the last three seasons after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Take the over. |
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11-26-14 | Tulsa +2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 58-73 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Tulsa +2.5 The Key: Oklahoma State is 5-0 but is yet to play anyone. The losses of leading scorers Marcus Smart and Markel Brown will show up tonight against a Tulsa team that is very good defensively. Tulsa checks in off a 53-35 win over Auburn, and it should be noted that it is 14-0 ATS the last two seasons after a win by 10 points or more. It is on a 10-0 ATS run after a win by 15 points or more and an 8-0 ATS run after two straight wins of 10 points or more. Oklahoma State is very reliant on the three-point shot. In fact, of the 55 shots per game it averages, 24 are three-point attempts. This plays right into the hands of a Tulsa team that is holding opponents to 25% shooting from beyond the arc. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS the last two seasons versus teams who attempt an average of 21 three-point shots per game or more. Take the points. |
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11-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 | Top | 103-86 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves +1.5 The Key: This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves. They have had the last three days off to prepare for this contest while Milwaukee just played last night. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three days' rest or more. The Bucks defeated the Pistons by 12 points last night, but they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 following a win and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 following a win of more than 10 points. The T-Wolves lost by 12 to Sacramento the last time they took the floor, but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. Milwaukee hasn't been the same team on the road where it has lost five of eight. It's also struggled against Minnesota. It is 0-4 in the last four meetings overall and 4-13 in its last 17 games in Minnesota. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the T-Wolves. |
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11-25-14 | Sacramento Kings v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 203.5 | Top | 99-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA Total of the Week on Kings/Pelicans Under 203.5 The Key: We saw 206 total points scored when these teams faced off in Sacramento last Tuesday. However, we saw just 185 and 199 total points scored in the previous two meetings. Both teams will benefit from two days of rest and game prep and the fact they just faced each other. I just don't see the offenses being as efficient here. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Kings' last 20 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in the Pelicans' last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the total is 200.0 to 209.5 in November games, you want to play the under on all teams (Sacramento in this case) with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Doing so has produced a 64-31 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average total of 204.5 points in this situation but only 199.1 total points scored on average. Take the Under. |
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11-25-14 | Arkansas v. SMU -4 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on SMU -4 The Key: This game is all about revenge for SMU, which lost 89-78 at Arkansas last season. The Razorbacks aren't nearly the same team on the road, and I expect the tides to turn. Arkansas has rolled to this point. However, it is 0-8 ATS in road games off two consecutive home wins of 10 points or more under coach Anderson, losing by an average score of 77.5 to 63.3 in this spot. SMU is 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the number in three of its last four games under coach Brown, winning by an average score of 67.6 to 61.3 in this spot. The Razorbacks are a dismal 15-36 ATS in their last 51 road games while SMU is on a 12-3 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem. Lay the points. |
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11-25-14 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) +3 | 24-21 | Push | 0 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Miami Ohio +3 The Key: Ohio has been a poor investment on the road where it is 0-4 ATS in its last four. In fact, it is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing on six days' rest or less. It is on a 0-6 ATS slide in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games. The Bobcats are also 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday contests. Miami Ohio has had three extra days to prepare and will be highly motivated on Senior Night. The Redhawks really got their passing game going last game and should find continued success through the air against an Ohio defense that ranks 108th nationally against the pass. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points. |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints -2.5 The Key: New Orleans has been one of the best home teams in the NFL with Sean Payton as head man and Drew Brees under center. So, the fact it has lost two straight in the Superdome isn't sitting well. I expect the Saints to respond. They haven't lost three straight home games since 2005. They are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games. I like Brees and company to be able to take advantage of a Baltimore pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league with 251.2 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have allowed opponents to complete 64.2 percent of their passes, and that number jumps to 66.1 percent on the road - not good. This is significant because the Saints are 8-1 ATS under Payton in home games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0 percent or higher. The Saints have won these games by an average score of 37.7 to 19.0. Lay the points. |
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11-24-14 | Brown +19.5 v. Illinois | 68-89 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Brown +19.5 The Key: Illinois is off a pair of massive blowout wins of 58 and 41 points and is being overvalued as a resulted against an experienced Brown squad. The Bears have dropped their last three but haven't lost by more than 15 points this season. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Fighting Illini are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. You want to fade double-digit favorites after a game where they scored 95 points or more if they are outscoring opponents by 8.0 ppg or more on average and are up against a team that is being outscored by 3.5 to 8.0 ppg on average. Doing so has produced a 78-37 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points. |
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11-23-14 | UC-Irvine +4.5 v. St. Mary's | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UC Irvine +4.5 The Key: I'll take the points with an experienced UC Irvine squad that returns 12 of its 13 top scorers. The Anteaters won't be fazed here after playing a talented Arizona team. They ended up losing to the Wildcats by 17 points but were successful at the defensive end, holding them under 40% shooting. That loss actually sets up a nice situational play as the Anteaters are 26-9 ATS in road games off a double-digit road loss since 1997. The Gaels are 3-0 and have covered both of their lined games, but they take a big step up in competition here. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 in their last four meetings with Irvine. Take the points. |
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11-23-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants +3.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants +3.5 The Key: The Giants have struggled, but the Cowboys seem to bring out the best in them. This isn't the best spot for Dallas either. It defeated the Giants by 10 points last month so its tendency will be to look ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Eagles. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in 21 of the last 30 meetings. Dallas is only 12-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. It is just 1-8 ATS under his watch following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. It also bodes well for us that Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 34.2 to 28.0. Take the points. |
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11-23-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics +6 | Top | 94-88 | Push | 0 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6 The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points. |
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11-23-14 | Washington Redskins +10 v. San Francisco 49ers | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Redskins +10 The Key: The 49ers are being overvalued by odds makers here. They haven't established dominance in their new stadium, where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than five points. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Niners with a big division game against Seattle Thursday. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 51-60%, have won two of their last three games and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 81-38 (68%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5 The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points. |
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11-23-14 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. New England Patriots | 9-34 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 51 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Lions +7.5 The Key: Detroit fits into a simple system that has been way too good to ignore. You want to back road teams off a road loss in the month of November as doing so has produced a 75-30 (71%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. There is also a system in play that stacks the odds heavily against New England. Eight games into the season or more, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in a game involving teams with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential if the team you are fading outgained its last opponent by 150 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 31-8 (80%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | 111-100 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bucks +3 The Key: This is a tough situation for the Wizards as they hit the road following last night's big win over Cleveland. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win, and they'll have a tough time getting up for a Milwaukee team they defeated by 11 points earlier this month. That loss, along with last night's ugly performance in Toronto, assures us the Bucks will be motivated. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the points. |
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11-22-14 | Navy +13 v. Northeastern | 44-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Annihilator on Navy +13 The Key: This is a sandwich game for Northeastern, which is off a big upset win at Florida State and has a showdown at UMass on deck. Since playing Michigan State to a five-point game in its opener, Navy was kicked at Notre Dame and Providence in its last two. Still, playing superior competition should benefit it here. Northeastern is an unreliable 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. Teams headed up by Ed DeChellis are 11-2 ATS all-time in games played away from home following a road loss of 20 points or more. Take the points. |
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11-22-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 48 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6 The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points. |
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11-22-14 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -10 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 18 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10 The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points. |
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11-22-14 | Penn State v. Illinois +6.5 | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 92 h 52 m | Show | |
6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois +6.5 The Key: Illinois can still become bowl eligible if it wins its last two, and I like its chances of keeping its hopes alive against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons, 0-7 ATS in road games following a stretch where they've lost four or five of their last six games since 1992 and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Penn State hasn't won by more than six points on the road this season, and Illinois has been solid at home where it has picked up all four of its wins - one of those against Minnesota. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points. |
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11-21-14 | Kansas State v. Long Beach State +2.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Annihilator on Long Beach State +2.5 The Key: This is a revenge game for Long Beach State, which lost both of last season's meetings with Kansas State by double digits. Those games were at K-State and Puerto Rico. Now the 49ers get to host the Wildcats, and I expect home court to prevail. Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less or pickem since 1997. Take the points. |
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11-21-14 | Air Force v. San Diego State -6 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -6 The Key: San Diego State is one win away from becoming bowl eligible so it will be on a mission tonight. It also catches Air Force at a good time as the Falcons are expected to be without leading rusher Jacobi Owens. The Aztecs have had Air Force's number. They have won the last four meetings straight up and are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their last three wins in the series have come by at least seven points. Air Force is 0-6 ATS in road games the last three seasons after racking up 275 or more rushing yards in two straight games. It is 0-8 ATS the last three seasons in road games after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or less. San Diego State is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points. Lay the points. |
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11-21-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 | 121-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +8.5 The Key: Off a big win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup won't get San Antonio's competitive juices flowing. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS at home this season, and it has been competitive against the Spurs. The T-Wolves are 3-2 in the last five meetings and 2-0 in the last two home meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. Take the points. |
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11-20-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings -1 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1 The Key: The Bulls are off a blowout win over the Clippers but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. The Kings are off a loss to New Orleans but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Bulls are 6-0 on the road, but the Kings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record. The Kings have performed well against the Bulls, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning their two home meetings during this span by 42 and 29 points. Take the Kings. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +7.5 The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | 26-20 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Big 12 Game of the Week on West Virginia -2 The Key: The Mountaineers let a heart-breaking one-point loss to TCU beat them twice as they laid an egg at Texas the following week. They haven't played since Nov. 8 so they've had plenty of time to put those losses behind them. It's senior night for West Virginia, and they'll be lacking no motivation as they seek revenge for back-to-back blowout losses to the Wildcats. The Mountaineers defeated Baylor 41-27 and took TCU right down to the wire. On their home turf, they are a better team than K-State, and that's why they're being favored over the 11th ranked team in the nation. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points. |