Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-15-14 | North Dakota v. Northern Iowa -22 | 52-64 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Blowout on Northern Iowa -22 The Key: With all five starters back, I expect Northern Iowa to start the season strong with a blowout win over a North Dakota team that lost five of its top six scorers. The Panthers return all of their top six scoring options. ND really struggled on the road last season, finishing 6-14 SU and ATS. UNI, meanwhile, was fantastic at home where it finished 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in line games. The Panthers have had the upper hand in the series. They are 5-0 in the last five meetings. Two of the last four wins have come by 23 and 25 points, and I'm expecting at least a 25-point margin of victory here given how much the Panthers bring back and how much ND lost. North Dakota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. Lay the points. |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +5.5 The Key: The Hokies are in the midst of a rare losing streak, but having had a bye week to regroup, I expect them to right the ship. As if their current three-game slide isn't enough motivation, they saw a nine-game win streak over Duke come to an end with last season's 13-10 loss to the Blue Devils. They'll be out for payback and to keeps their bowl hopes alive. The Hokies are 17-8 ATS following two of more consecutive losses under coach Beamer. They are also 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 points under his watch. Take the points. |
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11-14-14 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 56 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Friday Night Lights "Total" Annihilator on Tulsa/UCF Under 56 The Key: UCF is one of the top defensive teams in the nation. Having had an extra week to prepare, I expect it to completely shut down Tulsa. The Knights rank 8th in the nation in total defense with just 308.2 ypg allowed. They've been even better at home where they are giving up just 244.0 yards and 14.5 points per game. The Under is 4-0 in the Knights' last four games following a loss, 6-1 in their last seven games following a bye week and 6-1 in their last seven Friday games. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. |
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11-14-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +3.5 The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indiana, which is off a big win over Miami and plays in Chicago tomorrow. It won't give a Denver squad that has lost six in a row its full attention. The Nuggets are a better team than their record indicates, and I expect them to show that here in a matchup against a weaker Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Eastern Conference while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus the West. The Nuggets are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana. You want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss at home if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 29-8 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points. |
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11-14-14 | William andamp; Mary +18.5 v. Florida | 45-68 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
6* NCAAB Season Opener on William & Mary +18.5 The Key: Don't expect Florida to be in top form right out of the gate. The Gators will really miss guard Scottie Wilbekin, who set the tone on both ends of the floor. William & Mary won 20 games last season and is expected to be even better than it was last year. It is on an 8-1 ATS run when playing away from home as an underdog or pickem. In addition, you want to take underdog of 10 points or more in the first five games of the season if they closed out last season with three consecutive covers or more and are up against a team that closed last season with eight wins or more in its last 10 games. Doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points. |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -4.5 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Dolphins -4.5 The Key: This is a better spot for Miami as it gets to play at home on a short week. The Dolphins play their next two on the road with one of those in Denver so they know the importance of taking care of business here. They'll have no problem finding motivation as they have lost the last three meetings in the series, including a 29-10 loss at Buffalo earlier this season. The Miami offense struggled in Detroit against the best defensive team in the NFL, but it had averaged 30.6 points over its previous five games. The Dolphins are averaging 25.2 ppg on the season, which is significant because Buffalo is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 24.0 ppg or more. It has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.4 to 17.3. In addition, you want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game when they are matched up with a team that allowed 95-125 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 77-39 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points. |
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11-13-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 197 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
7* NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Raptors Under 197 The Key: Hard-fought defensive battles have been the norm in this series recently, and I expect no different tonight. We are getting a great number here because both teams have been overs machines early on, but the reality is these teams haven't combined for more than 186 points in their last five meetings. We have seen just 177.4 total points scored on average during this span. The Bulls jumped out to a big lead in their last game against Detroit with a 60-point first-half performance. That bodes well for us as Chicago is 8-0 under the last three seasons after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. We have seen only 173.3 total points scored on average in this spot. Take the under. |
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11-13-14 | Southern Miss v. Texas-San Antonio -7 | 10-12 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Annihilator on Texas-San Antonio -7 The Key: The Roadrunners have the edge at home playing on a short week. Southern Miss has been a terrible investment at 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games. It was pounded 63-17 by Marshall last week and hasn't shown the ability to bounce back. The Golden Eagles are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that the Golden Eagles are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games. The Roadrunners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UTSA defense has been good, but the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. That changes tonight against a So. Miss defense that ranks 104th in the country with 452.6 ypg allowed. Lay the points. |
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11-12-14 | Kent State +13.5 v. Bowling Green | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
6* ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Kent State +13.5 The Key: Kent State is 0-5 in conference play but is still playing hard as it tries to avoid being skunked. Bowling Green will have a hard time getting up for the Golden Flashes. It is off a blowout win at Akron and has Toledo on deck so it will be in danger of looking ahead, especially since it handled the Golden Flashes by 19 points last season. Plus, the Falcons became bowl eligible last week and appear to be in the driver's seat in the MAC East. I just don't see them being motivated enough to stomp on Kent State's throat. The Golden Flashes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Golden Flashes are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Bowling Green, and the underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +7 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +7 The Key: The Pistons have yet to cover a spread this season, and we are catching a very generous number as a result. The Pistons match up well with the Wizards and have won or lost by seven points or fewer in 18 of the last 20 meetings. Washington has won its first two at home, but the Pistons are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points. |
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11-11-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks -6.5 The Key: I'm not yet sold on the Kings, and it appears odds makers aren't either, installing them as a pretty hefty road dog despite their 5-2 start. The Mavericks are off a loss, but they are a team that responds following defeats, perhaps better than any other team. In fact, Dallas has followed up its previous two losses with wins of 18 and 23 points, and it is an impressive 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games following a loss. The Mavs are 20-0 in their last 20 home games against the Kings, winning them by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the number. |
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11-11-14 | Toledo +5 v. Northern Illinois | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Toledo +5 The Key: Toledo could be without QB Logan Woodside, but it is still showing value catching better than a field goal. The Rockets currently lead the MAC West with a 5-0 conference record but can't afford a loss here because Northern Illinois would own the tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical conference records. Both of these teams love to run the football, but I give Toledo the edge because it has the superior run defense. The Rockets rank 14th in the nation with 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game. The Huskies rank 59th with 153.2 rushing yards allowed per game and have given up an average of 210.3 yards on the ground over their last four games. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings at Northern Illinois. Take the points. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +7 The Key: The Carolina offense has been dismal the past two games, but that actually bodes well for us here because we are catching a good number as a result. The Panthers are 24-10 ATS all-time after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. They have won by an average of 0.3 points in this situation. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have scored 14 points or less in two straight games are 21-4 ATS the last three seasons. Carolina is 10-5 ATS all-time with Cam Newton under center when catching 3.5 to 10.5 points. It is also 6-2 ATS in Newton's starts versus teams with a win percentage of 70-80%. Take the points. |
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11-10-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks +1.5 | 91-85 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* NBA Annihilator on Knicks +1.5 The Key: Look for the Knicks to bring their four-game losing streak to an end here. These teams just played Saturday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning, but now they hit the road where they are 0-3. Atlanta is just 8-26 in its last 34 road games in the series. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover. The Knicks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 14-3 ATS the last three seasons following three consecutive road games and 33-17 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where it allowed 100 points or more. Take New York. |
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11-09-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. Green Bay Packers | 14-55 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +7.5 The Key: This is a must-win game for the Bears. Having had a bye week to sort some things out, I expect them to take the Packers right down to the wire. The Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a losing record. They are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that allow 7.5 yards per pass or more. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six November contests. The road team has been the play in this series of late as it is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Bears lost the season's first meeting. However, you want to back road teams that are off a road loss and seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. You also want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off a loss of 10 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that trailed by 14 points or more at the half of their previous game. Doing so had produced a 53-19 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +1 The Key: This is a tough encore for Golden State as it goes on the road with no rest following yesterday's big win over Houston. The Suns will be highly motivated following back-to-back defeats. Home court has been huge in this match. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven, including 4-0 in the last four. The Suns are a reliable 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a spread loss. They are 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 11-2 ATS when playing on Sunday under Hornaceck. You want to back any team on Sunday that is off a home loss to a division opponent as doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take Phoenix. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6 The Key: The Steelers rolled last week at home, but they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points. They are also 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus teams that have a losing home record. Since Tomlin took over, the Steelers have been a poor investment against poor teams. In fact, they are 6-15 ATS under his watch versus teams that are outscored by 6.0 points per game or more. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that check in off seven consecutive losses or more as doing so has produced a 92-45 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. Also, home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games are 119-64 ATS since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the points. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference Annihilator on Lions -2.5 The Key: I'll gladly lay this small number with the NFL's top defensive team following a bye week. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. The Dolphins punished San Diego 37-0 last Sunday, but history tells us not to overreact. In fact, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that scored three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 15-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 36-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points. |
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11-08-14 | UTEP v. Western Kentucky -7 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Western Kentucky -7 The Key: Western Kentucky's 3-5 record is deceiving. The Hilltoppers have played five of their first eight games on the road and have three single-possession losses on the season. The schedule now turns in their favor as they play their next three at home, and I expect them to take advantage. UTEP has been a bad investment as an underdog, going 3-11 ATS in the role going back to the start of last season. The Miners have been a good bet this season, covering the number in six of eight games and each of their last three. However, now's the time to fade away as they are 1-10 ATS since 1992 when checking in with covers in six or seven games during an eight-game span. The Miners rolled against So. Miss last week, but the score was a little deceiving as they were outgained 402-234. Performances like that have been telling as they are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that allow 440.0 ypg or more when they are matched up against a team that gives up 390.0 to 440.0 ypg. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points. |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4 The Key: Head coach Dcc Rivers has called out his players, and I expect them to respond. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 7.5 points. The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five at home in the series, winning these by an average of 8.0 points. You want to back teams like the Clippers that are averaging 48.0 rebounds per game or less and allowing their opponents to shoot 50% from the field or better. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points. |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 32 m | Show | |
6* ACC Early Annihilator on Syracuse +3.5 The Key: Duke has been scraping by, but its luck runs out here. The Blue Devils have found ways to win despite being massively outgained in each of their last four games, but it can't continue. This is the final home game of the season for Syracuse so it will be leaving everything on the field. The Orange lost a tough one to NC State last week, but they are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons following a loss to a conference foe. They are also a strong 30-16 ATS in home games after playing a home game since 1992. You want to fade road favorites that average 34.0 ppg or more when they off a win of six points or less and are up against a team that allows 21-28.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Take the points. |
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11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +10 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Push | 0 | 47 h 44 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Texas-San Antonio +10 The Key: UTSA's bye week couldn't have come at a better time. The Roadrunners lost 34-0 at home to UTEP as a 14-point favorite last time out. I expect the extra time off to do them some good and for them to regroup here. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite are 41-11 ATS in conference play since 1992. The Roadrunners have been a sweet play on the road where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last 3 seasons. Rice has won five in a row by 14 points or more and odds makers are only asking it to lay 10 here? Perhaps they're thinking what I'm thinking. The Owls will be peeking ahead to next week's matchup at Marshall. Take the points. |
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11-07-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 | Top | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +7.5 The Key: This line is an overreaction to Oklahoma City being without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. OKC is 1-4 but all four losses have come on the road and against some pretty good teams. Memphis is 5-0 but hasn't played as difficult of a schedule as the Thunder. Under coach Brooks, the Thunder are 49-27 ATS following two or more consecutive losses, 56-33 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games and 57-38 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. OKC is at home and has had two days to gear up for this one. It has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 straight home games versus the Grizzlies. Take the points. |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming +7.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
6* Mountain West Friday Night Lights on Wyoming +7.5 The Key: This is a tough spot for Utah State, which is playing on the road on a short week after making the long trip from Hawaii. The Aggies are also down to their fourth-string QB. Kent Myers played well against Hawaii, but I see him taking a step back here. Wyoming has a lot of momentum following a nice win over Fresno State, and it will be out for revenge after getting crushed at Utah State last year. The Cowboys are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by seven points. The home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with these wins coming by an average of 29.3 points. Take the points. |
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11-07-14 | Memphis -7 v. Temple | 16-13 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
6* AAC Friday Night Lights on Memphis -7 The Key: Memphis will be the hungrier team tonight. Temple is off a very satisfying upset victory over East Carolina. Plus, the Owls upset Memphis on the road in last year's battle, and the Tigers will be out for revenge. When taking a closer look, Temple's win over East Carolina isn't that impressive. In fact, it was outgained by 297 yards but benefited from five ECU turnovers. Memphis likely won't do the Owls many favors as its ball security has been outstanding outside of one game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Lay the points. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 24-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bengals -6 The Key: The Bengals are the superior team and are in a superior spot, getting to play at home on a short week rather than on the road. Home field has been good to Cincinnati. It is 13-0-1 in its last 14 regular-season home games, winning these games by an average of 14.3 points. From a spread standpoint, the Bengals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. Home field has also been big in this matchup with the home side going 5-0 in the last five meetings. These wins have come by an average of 10.4 points. The Bengals have three straight on the road after this so they know they need to take care of business tonight. Lay the points. |
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11-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 199.5 | 81-98 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Rockets Over 199.5 The Key: The Spurs have finished under the number in each of their first three games. The Rockets have come in below the number in each of their first five games. We are getting a very favorable number here as a result. Houston has looked good defensively in the early going, but it has played a very weak schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here. Six of the last eight matchups between these teams have gone over this number with an average of 213.9 total points scored. The over is 14-4 in the Rockets' last 18 home games. The over is also 26-11 in Houston's games against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach McHale. |
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11-06-14 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 42.5 | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF "Total" Annihilator on Clemson/Wake Forest Over 42.5 The Key: We are getting a favorable number here because Clemson has finished under the total in each of its last four and Wake Forest has come in under the number in each of its last five. The Clemson offense has struggled since ripping off 50 points against North Carolina and 41 points against NC State. However, those struggles came against Louisville, Boston College and Syracuse - three really good defensive teams. I like Clemson's chances of putting some points on the board against Wake. The Tigers have scored at least 30 points on the Demon Deacons in each of the past five meetings while averaging 39.4 during this span. Wake isn't good offensively, but I don't think it will need to provide Clemson much help for this one to make it over the number. When the total is 42.5 to 49.0 in weeks 10-13, you want to play the "over" on road teams that have beaten the spread by 49 total points or more over their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 41-15 (73.2%) mark since 1992. |
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11-05-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 109-131 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +3.5 The Key: The Nuggets will be out for some payback following Monday's home loss to the Kings. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss while the Kings are on a 7-19 ATS slide at home following a win. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Sacramento. You want to fade home favorites that are off two straight wins of six points or less when they are matched up against an opponent that is off a game where both it and its foe scored 105 points or more. Doing so has produced a 58-25 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points. |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +3 | 35-21 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
6* MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +3 The Key: Ball State is better than its 3-5 record leads you to believe. It's suffered a few tough losses but now has it going with back-to-back impressive wins. This is not the same Northern Illinois team we've seen in years past, but it is still getting that kind of respect from odds makers. It's 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a result. The offense isn't nearly as explosive as we are used to seeing. It has been held to 28 points or less in four of its last five games, 17 of less in three of these. Consider that Ball State has scored 32+ points in each of its last three. The NIU defense hasn't been opportunistic at all. It has forced only four turnovers in the last seven games. This is significant because the Huskies are 0-6 ATS after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none under coach Carey. They have lost by an average score of 29.8 to 22.3 in this spot. The Ball State defense has been extremely opportunistic of late, forcing 10 turnovers over its last two games. Take the points. |
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11-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +3 | 82-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Trail Blazers +3 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and with The Big Three coming to town, expect Portland to play some inspired basketball. Cleveland was able to bounce back against the Bulls following a bad opener against the Knicks. However, I expect the Cavaliers to be inconsistent in the early going as they adjust to new roles and learn how to play together. Portland is a tough place to play, and the Trail Blazers aren't at all happy about their 1-2 start. Portland has been a phenomenal home dog over the years. In fact, it is 85-56 ATS as a home dog of six points or less since 1996, including 51-31 ATS as a home dog of three points or fewer during this span. Take the points. |
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11-04-14 | Toledo v. Kent State +14 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
6* MAC *CA$H COW* on Kent State +14 The Key: This is too many points to ask Toledo to lay on the road considering how poor it is defensively. The Rockets are giving up 33.6 points and 449.9 yards per game. This is also a look-ahead spot for them with a big showdown at Northern Illinois on deck. The Rockets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams with losing records, 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with losing home records. Toledo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.25 yards per play or more in its previous game. It is also 0-6 ATS under coach Campbell in road games following a win against a conference foe. Take the points. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3.5 The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Giants will be lacking no motivation. They will be well rested and well prepared following a bye week. They'll also be happy to be playing at home where they've won their last two by double digits. Indianapolis was shredded last week, giving up 522 yards through the air to Big Ben and the Steelers. With an extra week of preparation time on his side, I expect Eli Manning to shred the Indy secondary as well. The Colts are the top offensive team in the league statistically, but the Giants are 30-13 ATS versus teams that average 375.0 ypg or more under coach Coughlin. They are also 25-11 ATS under Coughlin versus teams that average 260 ypg or more through the air. You want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 73-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-03-14 | Houston Rockets v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers +9.5 The Key: The Rockets have stayed focused early against inferior teams and are 3-0 SU and ATS, but this is where I believe they start looking ahead. They play in Miami tomorrow, and that game is followed by games against the Spurs and Warriors. The 76ers are 0-3 SU and ATS and will be hungry for their first "W" of the season. They kicked by Miami last time out but are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit defeat at home. The 76ers won last season's home meeting 123-117, and the home team has certainly been the play in this series as it is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Philly's three home wins during this stretch have come by 8.0 points on average. Take the points. |
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11-02-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | 95-90 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers -3.5 The Key: This is a tough spot for Golden State, which makes the trip up to Portland to play without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers had yesterday off and will be very focused following a disappointing performance in Sacramento. The Warriors won big in Sacramento in their opener and drilled the Lakers last night as well. However, they are catching some points, which tells me odds makers want the money on Golden State. We won't take the bait. The Warriors are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points. Lay the number. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48 | 23-43 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Ravens/Steelers Under 48 The Key: We are getting a great number here because Pittsburgh combined for 85 points last week and Baltimore combined for 51. The Ravens and Steelers have come in under 48 points in 14 of the last 15 meetings, including seven straight, and we've seen an average of only 37.1 total points scored between the teams in those seven matchups. Expect this trend to continue. When the total of between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you want to play the "under" on teams like Pittsburgh that have a winning record and are off an upset win of 10 points or more at home. Doing so has produced a 25-6 (81%) mark since 1983, including an 11-1 (92%) mark the last 10 seasons. In addition, the under is 7-1 in the Steelers' last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the under. |
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11-02-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Cleveland Browns | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 96 h 54 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +7 The Key: Outside of two games, the Bucs have been highly competitive with their other five games all being decided by six points or less. They beat the Steelers on the road and nearly defeated New Orleans in the Superdome where it has won 11 straight so they have what it takes to play with the Browns. You want to back road teams that have lost by 42 points or more ATS over the last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season. Doing so has produced a 15-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 53 m | Show |
7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on Jets +10 The Key: Historically, this is a fantastic situation to back the Jets. Consider that road underdogs or pickems are 26-6 ATS since 1983 when they check in off seven or more consecutive losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more consecutive wins. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 11.9 points on average but have lost by only 4.3 points on average. Everything Kansas City does offensively stems from its running game. The Jets rank fifth in the NFL against the run with only 85.4 yards allowed per game. Their ability to stop the run will keep the Kansas City offense out of rhythm. Take the points. |
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11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +2 The Key: Expect a letdown from the Suns in Utah following last night's big win over the defending champion Spurs. The Jazz will be highly motivated after losing their first two and fresh having had last night off. Utah has given the Suns some problems. The Jazz have won the last two meetings and are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five at home in the series. Utah is also a rock solid 101-71 ATS since 1996 in home off two or more consecutive losses against the number and has won by an average score of 100.1 to 93.7 in this situation. Take the Jazz. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +14.5 The Key: I missed with Oklahoma State last week but will come right back with the Cowboys here as they are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in November. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that allowed nine points or less last game when they are matched up against a team that's off two straight losses of 17 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark since 1992. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points. |
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11-01-14 | Virginia +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 10-35 | Loss | -103 | 74 h 46 m | Show | |
6* ACC Annihilator on Virginia +3.5 The Key: I like Virginia catching points because of its ability to stop the run. The Cavaliers rank ninth in the nation with 100.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take the points. |
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11-01-14 | Rice v. Florida International +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
7* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida International +6 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and well-prepared following a bye week, FIU will give Rice all it wants and more. You want to fade teams like Rice with a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential when they are on the road after giving up 225 total yards or less in their previous game when they are matched up against a team that is being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 35-8 (81%) ATS mark since 1992. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Take the points. |
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10-31-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +4 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +4 The Key: LeBron James played horrible last night as emotions surrounding his homecoming got the best of him. I expect a much stronger effort from him here and for the Cavs to take the Bulls down to the wire as a result. Cleveland's Big Three saw opening night going a lot differently, and they will be fueled by last night's ugly performance. I expect maximum effort at the defensive end, especially knowing they'll have to be much better than they were last night to compete with Chicago. The Bulls have been a terrible home investment in recent seasons. In fact, they went 35-55 ATS at the United Center the past two seasons while winning these games by only 2.7 points on average. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day of rest. Take the points. |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +6.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +6.5 The Key: Tulane has improved throughout the season in each of Curtis Johnson's three seasons as head man, going 9-0 ATS in October under his watch. The Green Wave have played much better football their past two games, and we should see continued improvement following a bye week. Tulane has been solid defensively this season, especially against the pass (ranks 30th in the nation against the pass). The offense hasn't held up on its end of the bargain, but it should be better with an extra week of preparation, and it should benefit from playing against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 118th in the nation. Seven games or more into the season you want to back teams like Tulane that have a +/- 40.0 rushing yards per game differential after allowing 100 rushing yards or less in two straight games when they are up against a team that has been outgained on the ground by an average of 50.0 yards per game or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 11-0 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +3 | 28-10 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3 The Key: The Saints shouldn't be laying three points on the road. They are 0-7 ATS since the start of last season as a road favorite and have lost these games by an average score of 25.9 to 20.6. The Saints are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season going back to last season. The Panthers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers have won three of the past four matchups, including their last two at home. Going back, they've won or lost by only three points or less in 18 of the last 23 meetings. Take the points. |
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10-30-14 | New York Knicks +13 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +13 The Key: This line is an overreaction to New York's lopsided loss to the Bulls last night. The Bulls defend better than the Cavs. Plus, I think it's going to take this new Cleveland team some time to build chemistry. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points. |
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10-30-14 | Florida State v. Louisville +4.5 | 42-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
6* ESPN National TV Annihilator on Louisville +4.5 The Key: The defending national champs have been overvalued all season, and that continues to be the case here. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, including 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road. They gave up 470 yards to Notre Dame last time out, and that doesn't bode well for them as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. FSU is fortunate to still be undefeated, and it will get all it wants from the top defensive team in the country tonight. Take the points. |
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10-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +3.5 The Key: The Rockets won easily in Los Angeles last night but are on a 3-13 ATS slide following a win of 15 points or more and have lost these contests by an average score of 106.9 to 106.7. The Rockets are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing without a day of rest. The Jazz have had a lot of success against Houston at home where they are 35-10 in the last 45. They won their most recent home meeting against Houston 109-103. Take the points. |
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10-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -133 | 3-2 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 7 *CA$H COW* on Royals -133 The Key: The Royals enter Game 7 full of confidence and momentum following a 10-0 victory in Game 6. They also have a ton of history on their side. Home teams are 9-0 in the last nine World Series Game 7s, and the Giants are 0-4 in World Series Game 7s. The Royals are 10-0 this season after scoring nine runs or more. They are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last four playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 5-0 in Guthrie's last five starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus NL opponents. Guthrie has been in a groove, holding foes to two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts. The Giants are 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in Hudson's last five starts versus AL clubs. Hudson hasn't been as sharp as Guthrie, giving up three earned runs or more in seven of his last eight starts. Take Kansas City. |
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10-28-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -134 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
7* World Series Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -134 The Key: Look for the Royals to stay alive behind a gem from Ventura, who outdueled Peavy in Game 2. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last six starts, 6-0 in his last six starts versus winning clubs and 6-0 in his last six starts on five days' rest. The Royals are 9-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 baserunners or less per game and 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that draw three walks or less per game. Peavy has a terrible track record at Kauffman Stadium, where his clubs are 0-6 in his last six starts. He's allowed six, five, six and four runs in his last four starts there. Take Kansas City. |
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10-28-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
6* NBA Opening Night Annihilator on Mavericks +4.5 The Key: I think the Mavs will want this one just a little bit more as it will be motivated by losing to the Spurs in seven games in last season's playoffs. Dallas has been an extraordinary investment on the road where it is 50-20 ATS in its last 70. The Mavs are on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog of six points or less and a 16-6 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Mavs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +10.5 The Key: The Cowboys are being overvalued here. Washington is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks 7th in the NFL in both total offense and defense. Plus, this is a huge rivalry game that the Redskins always seem to get up for. They have won or lost by less than 10.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings, 13 of the last 15, 17 of the last 20 and 22 of the last 26 so there is a ton of value in them catching double digits. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS following five or six wins in a seven-game stretch under coach Garrett, losing by an average score of 30.5 to 21.8 in this spot. Dallas is also on a 0-4 ATS Monday Night Football slide. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings at Dallas. Take the points. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -123 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints pk The Key: New Orleans is 2-4 but the four losses have come on the road with three of them coming by six points combined. In other words, the Saints are a much better football team than their record might lead you to believe. They are 2-0 at home, where they have thrived over the years, and I expect their home-field dominance to continue Sunday night. New Orleans is 10-0 in its last 10 home games and 36-17 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Saints are 14-4 ATS following a loss of six points or less under coach Payton, bouncing back to win by an average score of 31.1 to 16.1. The Saints are also 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 27.0 ppg or more under Payton, defeating these teams by an average score of 35.2 to 24.0. The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a losing record. Take the Saints. |
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10-26-14 | Kansas City Royals +149 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Royals +149 The Key: The Royals are showing value at this price with Shields on the mound. He's been at his best on the road where he has a 3.13 ERA. He was hit hard in a Game 1 loss but now has the opportunity to make the necessary adjustments. The Royals are 8-0 this season in Shields' road starts versus clubs with a winning record. They are 10-0 this season in his road starts versus impatient clubs that draw an average of three walks or less per game. They are also 9-0 this season in his road starts versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Bumgarner hasn't been the same dominant force at home where he has a 3.88 ERA and where the Giants are 8-9 in his starts this season. The Giants are just 6-13 in Bumgarner's last 19 home starts when the total is set at 6.5 or lower. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss and 5-0 in their last five after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Royals are also 7-2 in their last nine against the Giants. |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
7* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals +1 The Key: Cincinnati won the season's first meeting 23-16 in Baltimore clear back in Week 1. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the revenge angle, but this is not the time or place to do that. In fact, you want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a loss if they check in off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bengals have lost two of their last three, but both losses came on the road. Cincy has been unstoppable at home where it is 11-0-1 in its last 12 regular season games. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -3 | 43-23 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Jets -3 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Buffalo following last week's thrilling victory over Minnesota where Kyle Orton connected with Sammy Watkins with one second remaining. It will be tough for the Bills to recover from that emotionally draining win, especially without running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The Jets have had three extra days to gear up for this one after playing the Thursday game last week. With the extra time, I expect the New York defense to have a lot of success against a Buffalo team that is minus its two starting tailbacks. The Bills are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of two wins in three games. They are also 0-6 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning these by 17.3 points on average. New York is 12-4 in its last 16 in the series at home, including 4-0 in its last 4. These four wins have come by an average of 15.5 points. Lay the points. |
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10-25-14 | Nevada v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Bailout on Hawaii +3 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Nevada as it makes the long trip to Hawaii following a huge upset win at BYU. Not only is this a bounce-back spot for the Warriors following a loss at San Diego State, but it is a revenge spot following three consecutive double-digit defeats to the Wolf Pack. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss while the Wolf Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a win. The Warriors have been a terrific investment at home where they are on a 5-0 ATS run. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the points. |
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10-25-14 | Arizona State v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 14 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington +3.5 The Key: Expect a letdown from Arizona State following a big blowout win over Stanford. ASU has had its way with Washington in recent years, which means the Huskies will be lacking no motivation. It also means the Sun Devils will be susceptible - their tendency will be to look ahead to Utah. Washington is 3-1 at home, and the Sun Devils are a weak 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take the points. |
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10-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -124 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Giants -124 The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the proven track record of Vogelsong in this one. The Giants are 6-0 in his six career playoff starts, during which he's posted a 2.16 ERA. Omar Infante is the only KC regular with experience against Vogelsong and that bodes well for the Giants. While Vogelsong has been here and done this, this is the biggest game Vargas has ever pitched, and I expect him to give in to the pressure. The Giants just saw Vargas in August so they will have a much better understanding of his stuff. Vargas has had nine days between starts and typically hasn't performed well with extra rest, going 5-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 26 career starts with six or more days rest. The Royals are 2-5 in Vargas' last seven road starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a left-handed starter. Take San Francisco. |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 21 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State pk The Key: Motivated by last week's brutally embarrassing 42-9 loss at TCU, and further fueled by last season's 30-21 defeat at West Virginia, Oklahoma State will take care of business Saturday. The Cowboys are an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are 17-3 ATS at home since 1992 following a loss of 21 points or more. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 33.5 to 24.1 in this spot. The Mountaineers are in a letdown spot following a huge win over Baylor. You want to fade road teams in weeks 5-9 that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 20-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Cowboys. |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Giants -120 The Key: I like the Giants to bounce back at home where they are 4-0 in their last four playoff games and 6-0 in their last six World Series games. Guthrie has pitched well over his last four starts, but he has a 6.14 ERA in three career starts against the Giants. Plus, I trust the more accomplished Hudson a lot more in this big spot. Hudson has finished in the Top 6 in the Cy Young voting four times in his career and has a strong 3.42 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances. Taking Hudson at home has been a fantastic investment. His clubs are 19-5 in his home starts the last two seasons. Take San Francisco. |
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10-24-14 | Troy +14.5 v. South Alabama | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Troy +14.5 The Key: This line is an overreaction to Troy's 53-14 loss to Appalachian State. The Trojans are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons after giving up 42 points or more in their last game. They've lost these six games on average but only by 1.1 points. South Alabama is 4-2 but hasn't played as difficult a schedule as Troy. The Jaguars have been a poor investment at home where they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15. Troy has won the past two meetings, and while it likely goes down here, it should be able to keep this one within the number. Take the points. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
7* NFL Thursday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +10 The Key: This line is an overreaction to recent results. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread the past two weeks while struggling to win at Oakland and losing at home to Kansas City. Denver, meanwhile, has rattled off three consecutive double-digit victories. The fact of the matter is the Chargers will be extremely motivated following Sunday's loss. They'll also be out for revenge for a loss in Denver in last season's playoffs. The Chargers have been very competitive in this series. They have won or lost by eight points or fewer in 15 of the last 17 meetings, including the last four. The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in those 17 meetings and 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. It is also worth noting that they are 11-3 ATS as an underdog under coach McCoy, 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams and 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. You want to fade favorites that have held their last two opponents to 5.5 yards per pass or less when they are matched up against a team that has given up 7.0 yards per pass or more to its last two opponents. This system has produced an 87-48 ATS record since 1983, including a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points. |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | 30-6 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
6* ACC National TV Annihilator on Virginia Tech +3 The Key: You don't get the chance to back Virginia Tech in the home underdog role often, but it's been wise to do so when given the opportunity. The Hokies are 9-1 ATS as a home dog since 1992 and have won by an average score of 34.4 to 12.8 in this situation. Miami hasn't been the same on the road where it is 0-4 ATS going back to last season. It is also 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a cover. The Hurricanes have been an overall poor investment of late, going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference contests. VA Tech has won or lost by fewer than three points in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hurricanes are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Take the points. |
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10-22-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -108 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Royals -108 The Key: I like the Royals to bounce back in Game 2 behind a gem from Ventura. He's never started against the Giants, and that's to his advantage because they won't be familiar with his stuff. They'll have trouble catching up to his 100 mph heat. Ventura has a 3.27 ERA in home starts this season. The Royals are 5-0 in his last five starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus winning clubs. They are also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Peavy has struggled on the road where he has a 4.37 ERA this season. He's especially struggled at Kauffman where he has a 6.42 ERA in seven career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last five starts in Kansas City. Take the Royals. |
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10-21-14 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Kansas City Royals | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Giants -103 The Key: The Giants have far more postseason experience than the Royals and have proven themselves this time of year. They are 6-0 in their last six World Series games and 4-0 in their last four World Series road games. They are also 4-0 in their last four series openers. Bumgarner has been unbelievable on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA. Being a lefty, he should also be able to keep Kansas City from running wild. Shields has a 3.64 home ERA on the season and hasn't looked good in these playoffs, posting a 5.62 ERA. The Giants are 17-5 in Bumgarners last 22 road starts. They are also 8-1 this season in his road starts versus teams that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. They are 9-1 this season in his road starts when the money line is +100 to -150. Bumgarner has an ERA of 0.00 in two World Series starts while giving up only five hits in 15 innings of work. Take the Giants. |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Sun Belt Conference *CA$H COW* on UL-Lafayette +3 The Key: UL-Lafayette returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Arkansas State 23-7 while outgaining the Red Wolves 470-168. While Arkansas State is improved and will be motivated by that loss, they are getting too much respect from odds makers by being installed at the road favorite. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Arkansas State. The Red Wolves racked up 384 yards on the ground in their most recent win. That's an impressive feat, no doubt. However, they are 0-10 ATS after gaining 300 rushing yards or more in a game since 1992 and have lost by an average score of 28.5 to 18.8 in this spot. Take the points. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers -3 The Key: The Steelers have prided themselves on defense under coach Mike Tomlin so you can bet last week's 31-10 loss at Cleveland hasn't been sitting well. Look for Pittsburgh to respond behind a strong defensive effort against one of the weaker offensive teams in the NFL. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when checking in with losses in two of their last three games. They've won these six contests by an average score of 27.3 to 18.8. In addition, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS under coach Tomlin following a road loss of 14 points or more. The Texans have been a weak Monday Night Football play, going 0-6 ATS in their last six under the Monday night lights. Houston has been outgained in each of its games. It has been aided by creating turnovers, but Pittsburgh has done a great job of taking care of the football. Lay the points with the better team at home. |
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10-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -6.5 The Key: This is a tough spot for the 49ers, who are heading into the thin air with on a short week after playing Monday. They haven't fared well in this situation, going 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. They are on a 4-13 ATS slide in road games after playing Monday Night Football. Kaepernick was fantastic last week. The Rams made him beat them through the air, and he did. These Broncos aren't the Rams. Typically, the 49ers must establish the run for Kaepernick to be effective. They'll have a tough time doing that against Denver's stout run defense which ranks 4th in the NFL. The Broncos have held their last two opponents to a combined 68 yards on the ground, and they are on a 7-0 ATS run after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. With Denver able to control San Francisco's running game, it will have an opportunity to go after Kaepernick with Miller and Ware, two of the best pass rushers in the league. The Broncos are 18-6 ATS under coach Fox when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, you want to take home favorites that allowed 5.5 passing yards per attempt or less last game in a matchup of teams that outpass their opponents by an average of 1.5 yards per pass or more. Doing so has produced a 24-4 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been favored by an average of 6.0 points but have won by an average of 14.0. Lay the number. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -130 | 101 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Year on Giants +7 The Key: Dallas has won five in a row and is now being extremely overvalued following last week's upset win in Seattle. The Giants were rolling before taking it on the chin in Philadelphia. That loss assures us they will be mighty hungry when they take the field Sunday. Having suffered a pair of narrow losses to the Cowboys last season adds fuel to their fire. This has been a highly competitive series. In fact, the Giants have won or lost by seven points or less in nine of the last 10 meetings in the series, including six straight. Dallas has been a downright terrible home favorite under Garrett and Romo. It has been favored at home just once thus far this season, laying 4.5 against the Texans, and failed to cover as it won by only three points in OT. The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS as a favorite under Garrett, including 6-16 ATS when laying points at home. The Boys are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with Romo under center. Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS at Jerry World, and I expect the Giants to give Dallas all it wants and more here. Take the points. |
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10-19-14 | Atlanta Falcons +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | 7-29 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 23 m | Show | |
6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Falcons +7 The Key: This line is an overreaction to last week's results. The Falcons are 14-5 ATS under coach Smith following a loss of 10 points or more, bouncing back to win by an average score of 28.3 to 22.6. The Falcons are also 14-4 ATS under Smith after being held to 14 points or less and have won by an average score of 30.5 to 20.2 in this spot. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a cover and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards. The Ravens are also on a 1-5 ATS skid versus teams with losing records and a 5-12 ATS slide in home games versus teams with losing road marks. The Falcons are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL. They'll have enough offense to keep this one within the number. |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 53 m | Show | |
6* National TV Annihilator on Florida State -12 The Key: Florida State has covered just one spread this season, partly because the defending national champs have been overvalued and partly because they've had trouble getting up for inferior competition. They'll have no problem getting up for the undefeated Fighting Irish, and I expect them to send a message. Notre Dame is yet to play a true road game this season. It has played a pair of neutral field contests but had the majority of the crowd support in each. This will be the most hostile environment it’s seen in quite some time, and I don't think it will be ready. FSU has handled its business at home where it is 9-3 ATS in its last 12. FSU's 6-0 start is also significant because it is on a 14-4 ATS run in home games following six consecutive straight up victories or more and has won these games by an average of 34.0 points. Playing home favorites off two straight double-digit wins over conference foes, that are up against an opponent that's coming off a home game where both it and its opponent scored 31 points or more, has produced a 34-11 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points. |
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10-18-14 | Ball State +8 v. Central Michigan | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
7* MAC Game of the Year on Ball State +8 The Key: Off a huge win at Northern Illinois, it's going to be mighty difficult for the Chippewas to bring the same energy to the field this Saturday. Ball State will have no trouble getting up for this contest following five consecutive defeats, including an ugly loss last week where it blew a 28-7 lead. While the Cardinals have dropped five in a row, they've been very competitive with three of these losses coming by seven points or less. There's no doubt Ball State is better than its 1-5 record. The Cardinals played Toledo tougher on the road than Central Michigan did. Ball State lost 34-23 to the Rockets while getting outgained 470-351. Central Mich lost 42-28 while getting outgained 543-386. The Cardinals have been a phenomenal investment on the road over the years at 42-16 ATS in their last 58. They are even on a 23-11 ATS run on the road versus teams with winning home records. The Chippewas haven't been a worthwhile investment at home where they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19. It's also worth noting that Ball State is 14-5 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Lembo, which speaks to how well he prepares his troops. Take the points. |
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10-18-14 | Iowa v. Maryland -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland -4.5 The Key: At home and having had a bye week to prepare, Maryland will take care of business against Iowa. The Terrapins were clubbed by Ohio State last time out but are on a 24-10 ATS run following a loss of 21 points or more. They are on a 12-3 ATS run in home games following a defeat of 28 points or more. It is also worth noting that they are on a 25-10 ATS run after being outgained by 225 yards or more. Iowa is 5-1 but really hasn't looked that impressive. It lost to an Iowa State team that's 2-4, should have lost to Ball State (1-5), had trouble putting away FCS Northern Iowa, trailed Pitt by double digits at the half and trailed Purdue 10-0. Iowa defeated Indiana 45-29 at home last week but was outgained by the Hoosiers. That game could have easily been a much different story had Iowa not come up with three turnovers, including a pick six, and had Indiana's starting QB not gone down with an injury. Maryland went on the road and defeated Indiana 37-15 while outgaining the Hoosiers 484-332. Don't expect Iowa's first Big Ten trip to Maryland to be a pleasant one. Lay the points. |
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10-17-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -16.5 | 27-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boise State -16.5 The Key: Motivated by last season's one point loss at Fresno State and having had an extra week to prepare, Boise State should roll to a comfortable win. The Broncos have made good use of their bye weeks over the years and are 13-4 ATS in home games off a bye since 1992 and have won these contests by an average of 22.8 points. The Boise State defense wasn't at its best in the past two games. However, both of those were on the road. The Broncos are only giving up 16.5 ppg at home this season and history suggests the "D" will be ready to go tonight. Consider that Boise State is 8-0 ATS since 1992 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two consecutive games. It has won these contests by an average score of 42.1 to 17.1. The Broncos have completely dominated the Bulldogs over the years and are 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including a 6-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. These six wins have come by an average of 33.2 points. Bet Boise State. |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Month on Jets +10 The Key: The Jets have lost five straight without covering a single spread during this span. However, only two of these losses have come by more than 10 points, and it should be only one because the Jets lose by only seven and cover last week against Denver if Geno Smith doesn't throw w picks six in the closing seconds. Despite the rough stretch, New York will have no problem getting up for hated division rival New England. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 10 points in nine of the last 13 meetings. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by three points. You want to back road teams that have been defeated by 42 points or more against the spread over their last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse as doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 9.5 points on average but have lost by only 6.9 points on average. This system is 14-2 ATS the last three seasons. Take the Jets. |
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10-16-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NLCS "Total" Annihilator on Cardinals/Giants Under 6.0 The Key: The Cardinals won't go down without a fight. A lot has been made of Wainwright's arm troubles, but he is one of the best competitors in baseball, and I expect him to be on tonight. Wainwright has been at his best on the where he has a 2.07 ERA. The under is 8-3-1 in his last 12 starts following a team loss the previous game and 5-1 in his last six starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the Giants' last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Bumgarner is dialed in with a 0.76 ERA this postseason. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 7-1 in his last 8 starts on regular rest (4 days). The under is 8-2 in the Cardinals' last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. The Giants bullpen has been getting plenty of work, but that likely changes here as Bumgarner has been going deep. Regardless the SF pen has been fantastic all season and has shown that it can perform well when not fully rested. The Giants are 8-0 under this season with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over the last 3 games. We have seen only 3.6 total runs scored on average in this spot. Take the under. |
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10-16-14 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Pitt pk The Key: Virginia Tech has been one of the worst investments in college football in recent years. The Hokies are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, but this is far from the norm as they are still only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests. It's also worth noting that they are 3-11 ATS following a cover and 1-5 ATS coming off a bye week. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following a bye and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Pitt has lost three straight following a 3-0 start so it will be highly motivated. Plus, it lost last season's matchup at VA Tech so it will be out for some revenge. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings at Pittsburgh. Take Pitt. |
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10-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -102 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -102 The Key: I fully expect the Cardinals to even the series. They are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, and they have the edge on the mound with Miller, who has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. The line has moved to the point where the Cardinals are now favored at some books so it is worth noting that they are 6-1 in Miller's last seven starts as a road favorite. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Vogelsong's last seven starts as a home underdog. Vogelsong has given up four runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Cardinals. Miller is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. The Cardinals saw Vogelsong twice this season while the Giants haven't seen Miller since June 1, 2013. That also bodes well for the Cards. St. Louis is 16-6 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss to an opponent. Take the Cards. |
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10-14-14 | Baltimore Orioles -112 v. Kansas City Royals | 1-2 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Orioles -112 The Key: I think last night's rainout works in Baltimore's favor. The Royals have been red-hot, and when a team is that hot the last thing it wants is extended time off. The Orioles will be ready. This is basically a must-win game for them knowing how difficult it would be to win four straight. I like them to come through here behind a nice outing from Chen, who has a 3.33 ERA on the road this season. He was lights out versus the Royals this season. Baltimore went 2-0 in his starts against them while he gave up just three runs in 12 1-3 innings. The Orioles are 6-0 in Chen's last six starts as a favorite. Guthrie has an ERA of 4.16 at home on the season, and Kansas City went 0-2 in his starts versus the Orioles, during which he gave up six runs in 15 innings. The Royals are 1-4 in his last five starts as a home underdog. Baltimore is 20-8 this season when playing with double revenge and 15-5 this season when out for revenge for an upset loss at home. Take Baltimore. |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State UNDER 63 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
7* Sun Belt Total of the Year on UL-Lafayette/Texas State Under 63 The Key: Each of these teams combined for 65 points in their last game, and they combined for 72 points when they met last season. Yet, we see a total of only 63.0 points. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over. We won't take the bait. Neither team has played since Oct. 4, and the extra preparation time will benefit the defenses. Offensively, both teams look to run the football. That bodes well for us since doing so keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. The Ragin' Cajuns haven't been the same offensive force on the road and are 6-1 under in their last 7 games played away from home. Take the under. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Rams +4 The Key: St. Louis has played well in its last two games against good Dallas and Philadelphia teams. It led the Cowboys 21-0 and lost to them by just three points. Dallas just went to Seattle and upset the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Rams also played the now 5-1 Eagles to a six-point game on the road last time out. Motivated by those defeats as well as a pair of losses to the 49ers last season, I expect the Rams to play some inspired football under the Monday night lights. The 49ers have a big one against Denver on deck and will likely already be looking ahead to that showdown. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win while the Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. You want to back home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games if they are a team with a win percentage of 25% or less playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a proven 118-63 (65%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 50.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Giants/Eagles Under 50.5 The Key: You want to play the under in division matchups when the total is 49.5 or higher as doing so has produced a 74-40 mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to take the under in division matchups when the total is 49.5 or higher if the teams are off a home win as doing so has produced a 57-27 mark since 1983. This system has produced a 17-4 record the last three seasons. The Giants are 26-12 under in road games when the total is 45.5 or higher under coach Coughlin. They are also 6-0 under in road games versus teams that give up 130 rushing yards per game or more during Coughlin's watch. We have seen just 39.0 total points scored on average in these six contests. The Giants have run the ball a lot the last three weeks, and I expect them to continue to do so Sunday. That keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two in Philadelphia. We haven't seen more than 45 total points scored in any of these games. Take the under. |
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10-12-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals are a resilient team with a never-say-die attitude, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong in Game 2. Lynn has been consistently good at home where he has a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Peavy has been suspect on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA in 17 starts. The Cards are 12-2 this season in Lynn's home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. In addition, you want to fade underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 when they are up against an NL starter that has an ERA of 3.00 or less if they have a team batting average of .255 or worse and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 57-15 mark the last five seasons. Take St. Louis. |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 59 m | Show |
7* AFC West Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5 The Key: The Raiders needed a change, and I expect them to rally behind interim coach Tony Sparano. It is also to their benefit that they've had an extra week to prepare for this contest. San Diego has looked good during its four-game win streak but only one of the wins came on the road. The Chargers have won by more than seven points just three times in 12 road games dating back to the beginning of last season. One of these was a 10-point loss at Oakland in a game where it was favored by 6.5. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have been held to 14 points or less in two straight games as doing so has produced a 17-4 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 29-10 ATS record the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take the points. |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +10.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Early *CA$H COW* on Jets +10.5 The Key: The Broncos covered the spread for the first time this season last week. They clearly benefited from their bye week as they were able to put together a dominant performance. But now they hit the road for just the second time this season, and they do so without starting running back Montee Ball. Denver was struggling on the ground with Ball and doesn't figure to get much of anything against a New York defense that is allowing only 83.0 rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in total defense with just 320.8 yards per game allowed. With New York not having to respect Denver's running game, it will be able to put a hand in the dirt and really get after Manning. The Jets are tied with Buffalo for the league's most sacks with 17. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. You want to back October underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points (line at 10.0 at most books at time of report, but I was able to get the hook at an affordable price) that have been beaten by 35 points or more against the spread in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take the points. |
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10-11-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -120 | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -120 The Key: Bumgarner doesn't have a good track record versus St. Louis. He has an ERA of 4.78 in eight career starts against the Cardinals and has allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts against them. The Giants are 1-5 in his last six starts versus St. Louis. Wainwright has an ERA of 2.86 in 11 starts against the Giants and has held them to two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Wainwright has a 1.59 ERA in five NLCS appearances while Bumgarner has a 7.84 ERA in three NLCS appearance. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts and 10-0 in his Saturday starts over the last two seasons. The Redbirds are 8-0 in their last eight home games versus southpaw starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road record. Take St. Louis. |
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10-11-14 | Florida International v. Texas-San Antonio -12 | 13-16 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Saturday Night Blowout on Texas-San Antonio -12 The Key: UTSA has underachieved to this point. After upsetting Houston and giving Arizona all it wanted, it has disappointed in its last three games. Last week's pathetic showing against New Mexico should provide the wake-up call this experienced Roadrunner squad needed. FIU has been able to rattle off back-to-back upset wins despite being outgained in both because it came up with a total of 10 takeaways. UTSA has done a solid job of taking care of the football this season, averaging only 1.4 turnovers per game. Without the Roadrunners coughing it up, the Golden Panthers will have a tough time putting points on the board. Lay the points. |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Sandwich Game of the Year on North Carolina +17 The Key: Off a big win over Stanford and with a huge showdown at Florida State on deck, Notre Dame is in prime position for a letdown. North Carolina hasn't covered a spread all season, and we are getting a great number as a result. The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS in home games since 1992 after finishing under the total in four consecutive games or more. They have lost by an average score of 28.7 to 26.9 in this situation. The Irish are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. You want to back teams like UNC that have allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more per game over their last three games if they average 4.8-5.6 yards per play and are up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark since 1992. Take the points. |
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10-11-14 | Louisville v. Clemson -9.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
6* ACC Atlantic Game of the Week on Clemson -9.5 The Key: Louisville enters Week 7 with the top defense in college football (statistically), but it is yet to see an offense like the one Clemson brings to the table. The Tigers average nearly 500 ypg, and I expect them to do a whole lot of damage through the air in this one. The Clemson defense deserves its due as well. It ranks 10th in the nation with 290.4 ypg allowed. I like it to stifle a Louisville offense that averages just 388.3 ypg. The Cardinals have relied on takeaways to help them put points on the board, but they don't figure to get much help from Clemson, which hasn't committed more than one turnover in a game this season. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after four consecutive games of committing one turnover or less under coach Swinney. They have won by an average score of 41.7 to 17.8 in this spot. Clemson is also 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14.0 points under Swinney, winning by an average score of 43.7 to 20.7 in this spot. Lay the points. |
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10-11-14 | Duke +3 v. Georgia Tech | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 74 h 3 m | Show | |
6* ACC Coastal Game of the Week on Duke +3 The Key: Motivated by a double-digit loss to Miami last time out as well as 10 straight losses to Georgia Tech, Duke will be leaving it all out on the field Saturday. It has had an extra week to prepare for Tech's rushing attack, and that will make all the difference. Now is the time to fade the Yellow Jackets. They are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following a home win against a conference opponent. They have lost by an average score of 37.0 to 23.2 in this spot. Duke is a fantastic 14-5 ATS since the start of last season and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a spread defeat. The Blue Devils are on a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record while the Yellow Jackets are on a 2-7 ATS slide versus teams with a winning mark. Take the points. |
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10-10-14 | Fresno State v. UNLV +10 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights Game of the Month on UNLV +10 The Key: I expect UNLV to keep this one within the number behind a strong effort. The Rebels will be extremely motivated following four consecutive losses. The last three have come on the road so they will be chomping at the bit to take the field in front of the home fans. The Rebels showed well in their last home game, racking up 499 yards in a 48-34 loss to Northern Illinois. UNLV was tied with the Huskies in the fourth quarter despite spotting them a 28-5 advantage. I don't expect the Rebels to spot Fresno State a lead like that. UNLV was crushed 38-14 by a much better Fresno State side last season, and that loss provides added motivation for the home team. UNLV is 16-5 ATS in home games since 1992 after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. It is 9-2 ATS under coach Hauck in home games after two or more consecutive straight up losses. It has won by an average score of 32.1 to 27.3 in this spot. Take the points. |
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10-10-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
6* ALCS "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Orioles Under 7.0 The Key: The under gets the call in Game 1 of the ALCS with Shields and Tillman getting the ball. Shields has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.97 ERA. Tillman has posted a 2.59 ERA at home. In addition, both teams have excellent bullpens. The Royals are on a 37-17-5 unders run as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are on a 4-0 unders run in Shield's last four starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 7-1-1 under in their last nine as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 22-10-2 in Tillman's last 34 starts as a favorite. The under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams, including 6-1 in the last seven in Baltimore. Take the under. |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
7* NFL Thursday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +3.5 The Key: This is a tough spot for Indy playing on the road in a short week. To make matters worse, it will face a hungry Houston squad. The Texans are coming off an overtime loss to Dallas, and in case that's not enough motivation they'll draw from three straight losses to the Colts. Indy has struggled in Houston where it is 1-3 in the last four meetings with the lone win coming by only three points. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. In addition, you want to fade road favorite that outgain opponents by an average of 70.0 passing yards per game or more if they allowed 5.5 passing yards or less per attempt last game. Doing so has produced a 67-32 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 15-4 ATS the last five seasons. |
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10-09-14 | BYU +3 v. Central Florida | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
6* ESPN National TV Annihilator on BYU +3 The Key: This line is an overreaction to last week's result when BYU lost 35-20 to Utah State as a 21-point favorite. For starters, that was a rivalry game so it got Utah State's best shot. Secondly, the Cougars lost QB Taysom Hill for the season so backup Christian Stewart was not prepared to be thrust into the action. Having had nearly a week to practice with the first-team offense, I expect Stewart to be better. UCF is dreadful offensively with its poor QB play being a big reason why. The Knights have been forced to run the football because they are getting just 178.5 passing yards per game. That plays right into BYU's hands as it ranks 11th in the nation with just 98.2 rushing yards allowed per game. The Cougars have been exceptional in bounce-back spots at 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. They are even 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the points. |
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10-07-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -170 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -170 The Key: Kershaw will be looking for redemption when he takes the mound today after not being able to hold a 6-1 lead in Game 1. My money's on the best pitcher in baseball here. The southpaw sensation will be working on three days' rest but is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three career starts on three days' rest. The Dodgers are 10-0 in Kershaw's last 10 road starts and 6-0 in his last six road starts versus winning clubs. They are 13-0 in the second half of the season the last three seasons in his road starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and has won these games by an average score of 6.0 to 1.7. Miller is making his first career postseason start for the Cardinals after posted a 6.23 ERA in three previous postseason appearances spanning 4 1-3 innings. I expect this moment to be a little too big for him. The Dodgers aren't a big power team, but the Cardinals are 0-7 this season in Miller's home starts versus teams that average 0.9 home runs per game or less and have lost these games by an average score of 5.7 to 1.9. Take LA. |
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10-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -102 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102 The Key: I like the Cardinals with Lackey on the mound. In 19 postseason appearances he has a 3.03 ERA. Lackey thrives this time of year because few pitchers are as competitive and have as much self-belief. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted a 2.38 ERA. Ryu hasn’t started since Sept. 12 due to shoulder irritation, and I expect him to show a little rust as a result. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six home games versus a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four playoff road games and 18-40 in the last 58 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cardinals. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Redskins +7.5 The Key: Washington will be hungry after getting crushed 45-14 on this field by the NY Giants last time out. As if that's not enough motivation, the Redskins were defeated on this field the last time they faced Seattle in the 2013 playoffs, blowing a 14-0 lead in the game. Despite boasting a stellar secondary, Seattle has given up an average of 286 yards per game through the air in its last two games. Washington is throwing the football well with Kirk Cousins under center, and it possesses the running game to keep the Seahawks off balance. After back-to-back strong performance, Cousins had a rough outing last time out. That poor performances assures us he'll be focused and ready to bounce back strong. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 7.5 passing yards or more per attempt following three consecutive games of averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt or more. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and an 11-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Take the points. |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +1.5 | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 106 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +1.5 The Key: The Patriots were embarrassed on Monday Night Football and have been taking a beating in the media as a result. I expect Brady and Belichick to do what they've done time and time again - respond. The Patriots have a short week to prepare while the Bengals have had an extra week, but motivation is the best medicine. New England will draw extra motivation from last season's seven-point loss in Cincinnati. The Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. They are 17-6 ATS under Belichick off a double-digit defeat, bouncing back to win by an average score of 27.9 to 19.5 in these spots. The Patriots are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. You want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take New England. |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Year on Jets +7 The Key: Off three consecutive defeats, New York will be highly motivated when it takes the field Sunday. The Jets have yet to cover a spread this season while the Chargers have covered in each of their games, and we are catching a great number as a result. New York's record is not indicative of how good it is. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 75 yards on the season. Consider that the Chargers have outgained their foes by just 27 yards on average. The Jets are averaging more yards per game and allowing less yards per game than San Diego. Turnovers have let the Jets down the past couple weeks, but they are catching a big enough number here to cover the spread even if they lose the turnover battle. Teams off blowout victories tend to be overvalued. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that they are 0-7 ATS in home games the last three seasons following a game where they finished over the total. They have lost in this situation by an average score of 25.0 to 14.4. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points. |