This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. This is the third straight game for Army where it faces an opponent off a bye and it nearly pulled off both with wins but lost at Louisiana Tech by two points. In their four FBS games, the Black Knights are +1 in scoring differential as the two wins were by seven points and the two losses by six points. They are going to do what they do best and that is run all over Florida Atlantic as Army is No. 1 in the country in Rushing Offense which keeps the Owls passing attack on the sidelines. Florida Atlantic has won two straight games over inferior opposition as it destroyed UL Monroe and Texas Southern which happened to be the only two games where they were not outgained in. The bye was good for prep but will not help enough. Bet on teams averaging 230 rushing ypg and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games going up against teams averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 29-5 (85.3 percent) since 2022. 10* (140) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Virginia came into the season as a contender in the ACC after winning the regular season championship last year and it nearly fell to 1-2 in the conference. The Cavaliers got hammered by Florida St. by 31 points and narrowly escaped Syracuse last week as they were outgained by 142 yards despite the Orange being down to their fourth starting quarterback. The defense allowed 267 yards through the air and that is not ideal facing the SMU passing attack. The Mustangs are coming off a closer than expected win over Boston College to move to 4-1 including 2-1 in the ACC. They possess a potent passing game as they have gone over 430 yards in three of their five games by way of the arm of quarterback Kevin Jennings who has thrown for 1,613 yards and is No. 7 in the country in QB Rating. Here, we play against a road team off a win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off two no-covers where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (204) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. James Madison is getting much love again and rightfully so as the Dukes are 6-0 while coming off a hard-fought three-point win at Georgia St. last week. This is now their seventh straight game with no rest and have a huge rivalry game on deck against Appalachian St. on Thursday so that is a quick lookahead. James Madison also just accepted an invite into the American Conference so there is also overall celebration of what the future has in store while being asked to lay close to two touchdowns. Georgia St. has already exceeded expectations as it is coming off a one win season and has opened this year 4-1 with all four wins being double-digit victories. While the Dukes are in the fatigued overpriced favorite role in a peek ahead spot, the Panthers are coming off their bye week. Here, we play on teams team outgaining opponents by 2.0 or more ypa and after allowing 4.5 or less ypa last game going up against a team outgaining opponents by 1 to 2 yppl. This situation is 42-7 (85.7 percent) since 2022. 10* (157) Georgia St. Panthers

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Friday Attraction. We played against Washington last Friday as the Huskies got blitzed by Iowa to make it three straight losses. Part of the issue last week was that they lost quarterback Demond Williams, Jr. to a rib injury in the first half and while Elijah Brown was very solid, Iowa was not prepared as they had no clue what to expect but also, they had a 24-point lead and did not need to do anything special. That injury will carry over into this week which obviously benefits Purdue since this will be Brown’s first road start as well as they will have had a week to prepare with game film on him. Purdue won three games total in 2024 and 2025 and the Boilermakers are currently riding a two-game winning streak to improve to 3-3 so they are playing their best football in a while. The three losses were to Wake Forest, Notre Dame and UCLA which are a combined 16-1 and while Notre Dame completely shut down the offense, Purdue put up 943 combined yards against the other two. Their defense is a concern but as mentioned, Washington is not at full strength with Williams out as well as is one of their top receivers Rashid Williams. The Boilermakers are now in the rare role of favorite which is part of a strong system. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 21-4 ATS (84 percent) since 1992. 10* (120) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Thursday Powerhouse. Give kudos to East Carolina which opened 0-2 but has since won its last three games but the schedule has certainly played a role in that. The defense has led the way as they have allowed 12.7 ppg over the last three games but one of those was against NC Central of the FCS and the other two were against Old Dominion and Rice, two of the very worst offenses in the country. Another concern is the offense as they were gutted as they had only one starter back from last season. New offensive coordinator Jordan Davis arrives from North Texas, so ECU installed a new system while replacing much of its production but it still has not seen a ton of improvement a few games in as they are No. 107 in total offense and No. 113 in Adjusted EPA/Play. UAB has already won three games this season and while one of those was against FCS Samford and the other two were by 10 points combined, they pass the eye test as they were on national TV against Navy three Fridays back and they just looked different as they resembled new character and energy the Blazers did not possess under former head coach Trent Dilfer who was responsible for nine wins in 29 games. Alex Mortensen took over midway of last season and he has five wins in just 12 games. Here, we play on teams off 5 or more consecutive unders and averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 51-23 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (114) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. These two teams are each looking for their first FBS win of the season as they come in 1-4 with Kennesaw St. having defeated West Georgia and Missouri St. taking out Lindenwood. The Owls came through for us last week as they were able to get the cover against Jacksonville St. as a home underdog in their 27-26 loss and now they completely flip roles being the road chalk this week. Their last two losses have been by four point total which is factored into their luck ranking of No. 135 which equates them to being the fourth unluckiest team in the country. While Kennesaw St. is 0-2 on the road, one loss was against Arkansas St. by only three points and the other was at Tennessee. Missouri St. got rolled by Western Kentucky last week 34-13 and while it is heading home, its only FBS home game was a loss to 1-4 Marshall by six points and while the offense racked up 506 yards, the Marshall defense is one of the worst in the country. As mentioned last week, the Bears were very successful last season by going 7-6 in their first year at the FBS level and head coach Ryan Beard parlayed that into taking the job at Coastal Carolina so there are new coaches and a revamped roster. Here, we play against home teams off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival going up against an opponent off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (105) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CFB Tuesday Attraction. It has been an inconsistent season for Jacksonville St. for the most part as it is 4-2 with just one blowout win and that was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. We played against the Gamecocks last week as they snuck one out against Kennesaw St. but failed to get the road cover to fall to 0-3 ATS on the road but now they are back home where they are 3-0 ATS and once again laying a short number. They are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season as they allowed 410 yards and 6.3 yppl, both season highs but the defense has been much better at home and now they face an offense that has been well below average. Florida International has won two straight games since a 1-2 start and the Panthers have been led by the defense that is ranked No. 13 or better in the three yardage categories and No. 6 in scoring defense but this is against a schedule ranked No. 138 in strength. Facing a soft slate has not helped the offense as the Panthers are No. 82 overall and No. 121 in both rushing and scoring and they have scored more than 22 points only once which came against Buffalo whose defense is much worse than that of Jacksonville St. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (104) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our CFB Late Main Attraction. Why is Penn St. favored? That is exactly what every person is asking themselves and laying money on USC because they think the wrong team is favored. Admittedly, we were on the Trojans last week at home against Washington in a great bounce back spot and they barely survived. Now they head east and this team has been horrible in this situation as USC is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games in the Eastern and Central Time Zones with one ATS loss this season at Rutgers. Penn St. is coming off a second straight loss, the last one being embarrassed at Northwestern where it was outgained on the ground 413-41 and this is the buy low spot because everyone saw that nationally televised game and will want no part of the Nittany Lions. Here, we play against road teams off a home win going up against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 26-10 (72.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (344) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our MWC Game of the Month. We have seen this number plummet as Air Force hits the road for its first real road trip of the season with its only other road game coming at Nevada. Air Force is coming off a huge win at home over Navy which puts the Falcons in a tough letdown spot with a revenge game against UNLV on deck but this is not the reason for the line move. Starting quarterback Liam Szarka, who also led the Falcons in rushing last season and was atop the list this season, has been shut down for the rest of the year. Northern Illinois is 0-4 but the Huskies outgained the opponent in two of those with the exceptions being games at Iowa and Arizona. They are back home for their first home game against an FBS team and it is also their first game since joining the Mountain West Conference and it just so happens to be a night game. Here, we play home teams after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (416) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. LSU got all of the early pub after rolling Clemson in its opener but we see what the Tigers really are. The only other decent win was against Texas A&M at home but Kentucky also defeated the aggies and it was on the road. This is the classic Kentucky spot where no one wants to pay attention but only one bad second half against Alabama has marred a possible undefeated start. LSU quarterback Sam Levitt was one of the big transfers this season coming over from Arizona St. but he has been pretty average and the better quarterback is arguably on the other side in Kenny Minchey who has thrown for 1,148 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception against a schedule that is No. 7 in the country. This being a night game in Lexington only adds to the home dog aspect. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off a win by three points or less over a conference rival, in the first half of the season. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (350) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Arkansas is arguably the worst team in the SEC as it is battling it out with South Carolina but the bad teams can give us the greatest value if the situation calls for it and this is one of those. The Razorbacks came into the season as a rebuilding project under first year head coach Ryan Silverfield but there has been progress, namely in the running game. Tennessee bounced back from its loss against Texas with a win over Auburn and is now back on the road for the first time in a month with no stability at quarterback. Volunteers starter Faizon Brandon was benched at halftime after throwing for zero yards with George MacIntyre taking over and throwing for just 86 yards, the first time Tennessee has been under 100 yards passing in a decade. Until this gets fixed, they are to be avoided, especially at this number. Here, we play against road teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against teams averaging fewer than 3.0 ypc. This situation is 38-13 (74.5 percent since 2022. 10* (400) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. We love buy low/sell high spots and this could be one of the biggest ones in the early part of the season as Oklahoma came into the season as a legitimate playoff contender and the bottom has fallen out as losses at Michigan and at Georgia were sandwiched around a 14-6 home win over New Mexico. The offense is being dissected and rightfully so as they have been unable to do anything over this three-game stretch but one thing that has not changed is the defense as the Sooners are No. 1 in Defensive EPA. Texas is in the sell high spot as they are undefeated and fraudulent being a very suspect No. 1 team. The public loved them as is the norm and we have a big time public perception situation in this game with 82 percent of the tickets on the Longhorns but just 51 percent of the money on their side which shows the big money bets are on the Sooners. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 outgaining their opponents by 75 or more ypg. This situation is 42-17 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (396) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Virginia Tech came into last week 4-0 and was a football length away from being 5-0 but that field goal was ruled no good and that deflating loss has been lingering all week. Now, the Hokies have to hit the road for the third time but this time, it leaves the east coast after playing at Maryland and Boston College and all the way out west to face a team they could care less about and being favored by double digits on top of it. California has lost two straight games, dropping a game against Clemson at home and losing at UNLV last week despite outgaining the Rebels by 119 yards as the defense has been solid both times. The offense is the real story as the Golden Bears changed offensive play callers midway through the UNLV game and it resulted in a great second half. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (394) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Are we sure the SEC is really a dominant conference with a top heavy class of talent? It isn’t as we get further into the season as Alabama and Georgia look to be on another level while all of the other teams are just beating up each other with Texas still trying to prove it belongs. Mississippi was thought to be on that top level after defeating LSU but the Tigers have done nothing to prove they are great with their big wins coming against average Clemson and Texas A&M teams. The Rebels have the edge of coming off their bye week but they are severely overpriced. Vanderbilt has lost two straight but we are still backing them here as they are back home following two tough road games at Auburn and Georgia. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 40-12 (76.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (398) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We will keep playing the domino effect in the SEC as we were against Florida last week after the Gators' big win over Mississippi (who we faded after their LSU win) as they were dominated at Missouri and now we are back on Florida in a huge bounce back situation. They are back home and will get back to their own dominating ways here as they are still well involved in the CFP conversation but can ill afford a slip up. South Carolina opened 2-0 with wins in games it was favored by 35.5 and 44.5 points and has since lost three straight games, all in the SEC. Head coach Shane Beamer and his team were booed off Williams-Brice Stadium's field after blowing a 17-0 lead against Kentucky and losing on a two-point conversion in overtime. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better coming off a double digit upset loss as a favorite of six more points. This situation is 23-3 (88.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (330) Florida Gators

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Early Main Attraction. The argument here is that Nebraska has played no one in its 5-0 start and while the schedule rank of No. 111 proves that, the Huskers have dominated every opponent and they can only take care of business with what is put in front of them. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea was first team All-MWC at UNLV and he has started here right where he left off. This is the No. 8 ranked team in experience and past history of head coach Matt Rhule against ranked teams will put people on the other side. The defending  national champions are getting 71 percent of the money as the Hoosiers are also 5-0 and the same schedule can be said for Indiana also with a No. 103 ranked slate as its only challenge was Northwestern and it barely escaped. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-9 (75.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (328) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our Big 12 Game of the Year. Arizona came through for us last week as it pounded Cincinnati in what was a bad spot for the Bearcats including a tough travel situation and now that role falls to the Wildcats. They improved to 4-1 with the victory and have to travel east in a letdown spot and while they have played two road games, those were in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. Arizona opened 0-4 ATS and got its first cover last week and come in as the overpriced favorite. West Virginia opened 3-0 but has lost two straight games against Oklahoma St. and Iowa St. as they allowed 1,186 combined yards and the Mountaineers defensive coordinator called out his defense, calling them the worst in the country. Motivation tactic works. Here we play on home teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 5 straight games. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2017. 10* (352) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Friday Attraction. We faded the Huskies last week and they were able to stay within the number against USC and that was more of the Trojans coming in flat which was surprising. We will fade them again until they show something as they need to rebound from another disappointing effort. As written last week, Washington was expected to make some noise in the Big Ten Conference but it has been far from impressive. The Huskies opened with the Apple Cup and played a closer than expected game and the other FBS games resulted in a two-point win over Utah St., which got its first win just two weeks ago, and a three-point loss to Minnesota at home. Iowa is coming off a loss against Ohio St. which could have been a massive statement game now it is time for them to respond and we think they do here because we have seen it before. Washington cannot run the ball as they are averaging 3.7 ypc against a schedule ranked No. 90  and will have no chance against the Hawkeyes which allow 2.9 ypc against a schedule ranked No. 38. The latter is ranked No. 6 in the country. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) since 2022. 10* (319) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS for our C-USA Game of the Month. Western Kentucky has gotten off to an awful 1-4 start with the lone win coming against Mercyhurst of the FSC. This comes after losing four games all of last season including two by three points apiece to close the regular season and with the record this season, people are down on them. Well, they shouldn’t be as the Hilltoppers were picked to contend in Conference USA and at 0-1, they are far from out of it. All four of the FBS losses this season have come on the road including a pair at Georgia and Indiana so the schedule has done them no favors so finally playing an FBS game at home and in primetime no less will have this place finally having a chance to get amped up. Missouri St. has had a similar situation with just one less game played as the Bears are 1-3 with the only win coming against FCS Lindenwood and two of their three FBS losses have been on the road. They were very successful last season by going 7-6 in their first year at the FBS level and head coach Ryan Beard parlayed that into taking the job at Coastal Carolina so there are new coaches and a revamped roster and they hit the road again where they were 4-2 last season but won those games by a total of 14 points so there were good fortunes. This number is simply too short in a situation like this for Western Kentucky. 10* (312) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Jacksonville St. has won nine games in each of its first three seasons at the FBS level and the Gamecocks have won or shared first place in Conference USA and went to the title game both years in which they split. They are expected to contend again and sitting 3-2 overall, this includes a 1-0 start in the conference following a win over Middle Tennessee last week, a 10-point home victory. They now hit the road for the first time in the conference and come in as road favorites and they come in 0-2 on the highway but are favored based on past perception as we have this number at Kennesaw St. -2.1. Jacksonville St. is 1-3 in its history as road favorites including 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less. The Owls are 1-3 which is obviously playing into this number as well with losses to Georgia St., one of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, Tennessee and last week at Arkansas St. by just three points. They came into FBS two years ago and went 2-10 in year one but surprised many last season by going 10-4, shared the conference title and won the C-USA Championship over Jacksonville St. 19-15. That brings in road revenge but not for us as that is something that is not usually easily attainable especially knowing Kennesaw St. is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in its two years of existence. 10* (304) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Tuesday Attraction. This line is inflated as we have it at 6.7 and that number is taking the loss of Southern Miss quarterback Ethan Hampton who is out for the season into consideration as the new starter Landry Lyddy is not a step down and his numbers have been actually better. The Golden Eagles are 1-3, 0-3 against FBS teams with the losses against Auburn, Connecticut and Tulane on the road with the latter two taking place despite getting outgained by 83 yards combined. This is a young team that came into the season the third least experienced so growing pains were expected but now they have had time to work together and the one thing they need to shore up is their rushing defense but they are not facing a rushing powerhouse here. Troy is 2-2 with the lone FBS win coming against Sam Houston St. by three points where it was outgained and the Bearkats are currently power ranked a half-point below Southern Miss. The Trojans are off a loss at Utah St. which was the first win of the season for the Aggies and while this is the Sun Belt Conference opener, they could very well be partly looking ahead to West Division favorite Louisiana next week. Past history means nothing in college football but the public will be all over Troy knowing they are 5-0 straight up and ATS in the last five meetings, all wins by double digits. 10* (301) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Cincinnati won for us last week at home against Kansas St. as an underdog as the Bearcats were geeked up for that one following their big comeback against Miami Ohio and that home game being at night in a massive revenge spot and it resulted in another come-from-behind win. Now comes the letdown following two exciting wins by five points each to improve to 4-0 after opening with a pair of blowout wins over Boston College and Western Carolina. Cincinnati now makes the west coast trip for its first true road game of the season. Arizona is 3-1 with the loss coming at BYU just 11 points no thanks to a pick six so it was a quality loss but the Wildcats are already behind the eight ball in the Big 12 Conference, sitting at 0-1 so now they have to take care of business at home. Arizona is 0-4 ATS so there is value in a buy low spot in what is a great situation at home. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992. 10* (180) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. USC got blitzed at home against Oregon despite Ducks quarterback Dante Moore getting knocked out which evidently fired them up. The Trojans need to rebound as this is a statement game after that bad look situation and the fact they have to travel to Penn St. next week and we all know how they struggle in the Eastern Time Zone. The season is far from over but a loss here and they could be cooked. This is a number they can easily cover following a loss. Washington was expected to make some noise in the Big Ten Conference but it has been far from impressive. The Huskies opened with the Apple Cup and played a closer than expected game and the other FBS games resulted in a two-point win over Utah St., which got its first win just last week, and a three-point loss to Minnesota at home and this marks their first road game. This looks like a team not into playing. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (182) USC Trojans

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We played Marshall in its season opener and it forgot to get off the bus as it was outgained 487-447 but has since won three straight games, albeit unimpressively as they came by a combined nine points but wins are wins. We are back on the Thundering Herd here in their Sun Belt Conference opener and this team was picked to contend in the East Division with four other teams including this week’s opponent. Despite the average results, the offense is playing well with the exception of the Penn St. game as quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is leading the team efficiently with excellent numbers. James Madison is 4-0 both straight up and ATS and the latter is helping up with this number which is overinflated. The Dukes are part of that contending group as this is a really good team but to be favored by this many points is a bit much. They have hardly faced an offense with a pulse and now that changes. Here, we play on road teams allowing 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 280 to 330 ypg. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (147) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our MAC Game of the Month. Massachusetts has been a major surprise this season as it is 4-0 with those four wins already half of their wins since 2019 when they went a combined 8-68. The Minutemen are on everyone’s radar now and with that comes inflating lines and that is the case here. Two of the four wins were against FCS teams, another against Sacramento St., arguably the worst FBS team in the country and in its first year up from the FCS and Rutgers. The emergence of quarterback Pop Watson is making the rounds and now everyone is lining up at the betting window. Eastern Michigan is no powerhouse but we don’t need the win and it comes in 2-3 with the wins coming against the already mentioned Sacramento St. and an FCS team with a one possession loss against San Jose St. teams and the other against two Wisconsin and Michigan St. This is the buy low/sell high spot. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (129) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Central Michigan got slaughtered last weekend against Miami 52-3 as it failed to cover the 41.5 points but that was a pay day only and now the real season starts. The Chippewas have a chance to contend after a 7-6 season including 5-3 in the MAC despite being -17 in turnovers and now they open the slate as a short favorite against one of the notoriously worst teams in the conference. They are back home where they have allowed 10 ppg in two games and are in position to keep that defense going. Akron had won four and five games respectively the last two seasons and looked like it may be on the rise but it has opened 1-3 and is already dealing with some significant injuries. Akron has averaged just 8.8 yards per reception this season 4th-worst among FBS Offenses so they have not been able to create explosive plays, while defensively they apply no pressure as they are averaging only one sack per 62.5 pass attempts, worst in the country. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (164) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Main Attraction. Florida took care of business for us last week as it rolled over Mississippi which was in a letdown spot after the Rebels were coming off the LSU Win but now the Gators find themselves in a similar spot. They have looked great thus far and it has been a huge turnaround from their 4-8 record from last season as they have outgained opponents by over 180 ypg and outscoring them by over 30 ppg but now they head into a brutal spot with the spotlight on them and the line being inflated because of it. Missouri opened the season 3-0 but suffered its first loss last week at resurgent Mississippi St. as the defense got torched for 499 total yards. The Tigers had a very unimpressive win over Troy prior to that as they were outgained 323-230 as big favorites but now they are in a role they flourish in as they are 6-0 ATS under head coach Eli Drinkwitz as home underdogs of six or less. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (196) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Syracuse is off to a disappointing 1-2 start and it is even more disappointing considering both of those losses were winnable and coming off a bye week is a big edge to regroup. The Orange lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. They then lost to Pittsburgh as they were outgained by only 21 yards but simply failed to execute while untimely turnovers again. Now they take a step down in class as Connecticut comes in 2-2 but this is a team that has a bad matchup with its horrible defense. The loss of head coach Jim Mora is showing but we knew that coming in as the roster got gutted with only one starter having come back. Here, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in three straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (113) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. With Louisville losing last week against Wake Forest, the winner of this game could make a run at the ACC Championship and we are backing the home team in what is going to be an intense environment. The Hokies are 4-0 that includes a pair of wins at Maryland and Boston College the last two weeks and while those teams are not good, winning those on the road is still impressive for a team that could not do it that much recently. Head coach James Franklin revamped the defense and it is outstanding, allowing just 16 ppg and while they face a true test here, being at home surely helps. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer does not get the same amount of recognition as Pittsburgh’s Mason Heintschel but he has been great with a 74.3 completion percentage while posting an 8-0 TD/INT Ration. The Panthers come in with a very similar resume so these teams are even on paper but this is now their first road game of the season. Bettors are discounting the close BC win due to the weather and believe on a neutral field the Hokies are very slightly better. Here, we play on home teams coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (108) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our AAC Game of the Month. Tulsa suffered its first loss of the season as it fell at Arkansas 34-6 as it was simply outclassed against a team from the SEC even though it was a bad Razorbacks team. The Golden Hurricane could do nothing on offense as they were outgained 441-221 but they expect to get quarterback Baylor Hayes back as he is listed as questionable after missing two games with a knee strain but is trending on returning. This team has a vicious defense as the defensive line is aggressive and applies plenty of pressure and has led them to allowing just 15.3 ppg. On the other side, North Texas is 2-2 as it defeated UNLV by 38 points but that is a team looking for answers and the Rebels lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Mean Green other win was against Houston Christian of the FCS last week and while they should improve as the season moves along, this is an awful spot for them as their potent offense will face a massive test. As for their own defense, it has been inconsistent and this could be the spot Tulsa needs to get that offense back on track. We are getting an exceptional number on top of it. Here, we play on home teams after scoring 9 points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic is coming off an ugly 16-10 win over Florida International in the Shula Bowl and that result helps us here as this number could be even higher. The Owls got absolutely rolled by Florida in their season opener but came back with an upset over Navy before the win last week where we can call a fortunate one. The Owls were outgained by 99 total yards but used a 3-0 turnover advantage and stopped the Panthers three times on fourth down in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Normally we would be weary of that false final but Florida Atlantic has a massive edge as quarterback Caden Veltkamp and the potent passing attack will have their way against one of the worst passing defenses in the country in the Warhawks, which come in 0-3 including losses to UAB and FCS SE Louisiana. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after 2 straight losses by six or less points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (395) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. This is a game of opposite travel situations and should help Utah St. get into the win column for the first time this season. The Aggies return home after back-to-back road games against Washington and Utah where they managed 14 and 0 points respectively. The big cause for concern was the season opener where they lost 29-17 against FCS Idaho St. but Utah St. lost the turnover battle 4-0 so that was a fluke. We did win with the Aggies against Washington as they lost by only two points as a four-touchdown underdog and that letdown led to a poor effort last week against Utah. Conversely, Troy is coming off a road game, a 27-17 loss to Missouri and have to go back-to-back on the road, this one in high altitude. The Trojans two wins were against Sam Houston St. by three points where they were outgained and Alabama St. of the FCS. Here, we play against road teams averaging 6.4-7.5 ypa going up against teams allowing 5.6-6.4 ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-4 (87.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (410) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Main Attraction. One of the marquee games comes from the old Pac 12 as Oregon looks to regroup against a quality team. The Ducks narrowly defeated Boise St. at home and then lost at Oklahoma St. and while they defeated Portland St. 84-0 last week, we can’t take much out of that as it was a glorified practice. What it did do was give the players a confidence boost on the simple things and that can go a long way as we have seen these lopsided victories do future wonders. Oregon has a chance to keep that offensive momentum going as USC comes in having started off poorly on defense. The Trojans are No. 110 in Adjusted EPA/Play and are coming off a game at Rutgers, which lost to UMass and Boston College, and allowed 460 yards and four scores and on the season, they have allowed 26, 30 and 35 points in three of four games. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 2022. 10* (399) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. Sometimes big wins can carry momentum and we think that is the case for Cincinnati. The Bearcats came back from a 28-7 deficit against Miami Ohio to win 35-31 and claim The Victory Bell in what was the last one in this oldest non-conference rivalry for at least the near future which is a travesty. Cincinnati is now 3-0 and making this a non-letdown spot is the fact this is the Big 12 Conference opener so the Bearcats will be jazzed for a night home game. Kansas St. came up small for us as it failed to cover against Tulane as they let the Green Wave hang around and they coasted prior to their own conference opener. They have looked excellent thus far and they come in favored which maybe should be the case but not at this number. Here, we play home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (346) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Vanderbilt is coming off one of the most improbable wins so far this season and one of the craziest endings to a game in recent memory. Coming off that last second win to improve to 3-0, the Commodores now hit the road for the first time this season likely still in celebration mode despite this being their conference opener. Vanderbilt was the big story of last season, narrowly missing out on the CFP but it had a lot of turnover coming into this season and the first road game makes it tougher. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season at home against Florida and it gets to remain home to rebound from that defeat. We are seeing a 12-point swing and the big line is going to lure in the public to back Vanderbilt since everyone saw that ending last week. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) since 2017. 10* (390) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Year. Here is another letdown spot and this is one of the biggest letdowns we have encountered in a while. Mississippi is coming off the massive win over LSU and while it wasn’t a big time upset, it was the situation that it took place in which will put the Rebels in a vulnerable spot here. This could be considered a letdown spot for Florida which had a big win at Auburn but the difference we like here is that the Gators do the reverse travel and head home. Florida put up 495 passing yards against Auburn and that is where they should once again be able to find success as Mississippi sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators. Here, we play against road teams after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 28-11 (71.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (342) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We are starting to find some situations to play on or against with coming off big wins and losses and Kentucky is coming off the former. The Wildcats defeated Texas A&M on the road by 10 points to improve to 2-1 but it was a backwards victory as they were outgained by the Aggies which ran a whopping 30 more plays but could not get anything going. The win was huge which came after that Alabama second half debacle and now this presents a massive out of conference letdown and the fact they have South Carolina on deck. South Alabama is 2-1 with nothing overly exciting to get amped about but the Jaguars have outgained all three opponents as the only loss was to Tulane by four points despite outgaining the Green Wave 54 points. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (333) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Navy is coming off an early bye week following a 1-1 start as it rolled over Towson and then lost a tough one against Florida Atlantic. The Midshipmen have Air Force on deck which is normally a lookahead situation but in this case, there is no chance following a loss and then a bye week as this has been the circled game. They lost to the Owls due to allowing 386 yards passing but the good news is that UAB averages just 159.3 ypg through the air so there is no danger there. Navy will use its typical power running game to get the job done and will have little resistance here from the Blazers even with a new quarterback as Jackson Gutierrez has run this offense just fine. UAB is 1-2 with the lone win coming against UAB at home by six points and it was a rare favorite but this is a team that is in complete rebuilding mode as only three starters came back and while they get a rare home game on a Friday night, this is a game where they should be overmatched just like they have been in each of the last three seasons. Here, we play against home teams after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 40-11 (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (307) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Liberty came through for us Saturday as it finally put a complete game together against Ball St. and now the Flames are back on the road as a public favorite as this line has already flipped. This is a fade from an overreaction standpoint and while we expected a big effort from Liberty, a lot of that was going against Ball St. which was in an awful spot. The Flames put up 460 yards on offense but does that performance represent the offense moving forward or whether the first two games provide a more accurate indication as they struggled against James Madison and Gardner Webb. Despite Coastal Carolina entering at just 1-2, its offensive production and overall statistical profile have been better than the record might suggest as the two losses were on the road at West Virginia and Delaware by one possession. The only home game was a scrimmage against Fordham so there is not much to go off of but a primetime stand-alone game gives the Chanticleers the big edge and we are getting points on top of it. Here, we play against -teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses going up against an opponent in the first month of the season, a bowl team from the prior season who lost their last 3 games. This situation is 65-25 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Dog. This is a low key rivalry game that is finally back on for the first time since 2002 and it is being played on a neutral field with the line being inflated for Virginia with a lot of that based on its big win over NC State to open the season and its current ranking. What we like better is the way West Virginia has looked on offense and has the potential for success. The key for the Mountaineers will be controlling the line of scrimmage and allowing quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. to use his mobility to extend plays. West Virginia has averaged 41.5 ppg, giving it enough offensive firepower to challenge Virginia's defense, especially on the ground. Virginia deserves respect at No. 25, but the Cavaliers are being asked to win by more than a touchdown, and that creates value on the West Virginia side and it is another game with the rushing dog shortening the game. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 33-15 ATS (68.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (188) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our Saturday Contrarian Crusher. Rice was a big letdown last week as it fumbled four times in the first half but the Owls failed to get the backdoor as they had their late opportunities but failed. They are back home catching a big number and it is a decent advantage playing in the heat and humidity that Western Michigan is not used to. Part of the capping last week was that Rice would use its option game to shorten the contest and they will now have the edge of a shortened game and getting points as Western Michigan is also run heavy so catching a big number in a game atmosphere like this is big. The Broncos are coming off a win over Monmouth last week but they were outgained in doing so which came after the Michigan controversy and because of that, they are now a public team. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season off a home win by 17 points or more after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (182) Rice Owls

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Liberty is coming off a one point win against Gardner Webb of the FCS with the latter being the more fired up team as their head coach was fired for misconduct after coaching just one game so they came together as a team. That narrow win is keeping this number within reach as the Flames are not going to be very popular. They outgained James Madison in the season opener but suffered another one possession loss which has marred them of late and that includes three overtime losses last season. Ball St. is one of the worst teams in the FBS as the win last week was against one of the worst teams in the FCS in Stony Brook. This is a woodshed game and the value is huge. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Game of the Month. Clemson got blown out by LSU in its season opener and the box score did not lie as the Tigers were utterly dominated from start to finish. They defeated Georgia Southern last week 22-7 and it was supposed to be the get right game and that score does not show that. They had two redzone turnovers and had to settle for five field goals so it should have been a lot worse and now is the true get right game in this conference opener in a highly motivated situation. North Carolina upset TCU in its season opener and then defeated East Tennessee St. of the FCS last week after a but and now the Tar Heels hit the highway for their first true road game. The departure of defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and everything surrounding it could cause an unnecessary distraction. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with four or fewer defensive starters returning. This situation is 88-51 ATS (63.3 percent) since 2022. 10* (120) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our Saturday Revenge Rout. Kansas St. has not been tested yet with its two wins and it will not be tested here either. The Wildcats have outgained their two opponents by an average of 279 ypg while the offense is averaging 303.5 ypg on the ground and that is bad news for Tulane. The Green Wave have been outgained in both games while allowing 216 ypg rushing and they are coming off a fake win last week over South Alabama as they were outgained and out first downed 25-13. While it was in 2022, Kansas St. is playing with revenge from a 17-10 loss and while none of the current Wildcat players were involved, head coach Collin Klein has been feeding them this week how the university and program were embarrassed. Here, we play on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points from a Power 4 conference and with an experienced quarterback going up against a G6 team and with an inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (124) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Houston is 2-0 while averaging 55 ppg, and the market has moved from Texas Tech around -13.5 at open to -7.5. They already have a common opponent as both have played Oregon St. Houston outgained Oregon St. 533-376, while Texas Tech allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers and were outgained 472-352 overall. The Cougars came in a sleeper to win the Big 12 Conference following 10 wins last season and while we do not typically play the road revenge angle, Houston has the roster and motivation to get that payback or at least keep this one within reach. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points good passing team from last season with a completion pct of 58% or better, in weeks 0-3, after allowing 8 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (109) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Syracuse let us down last weekend as it lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. This line is inflated because of the final score and not what exactly transpired in the game itself. Pittsburgh rolled over Miami Ohio in its opener but struggled against Central Florida last week as it only won 12-7. The box score shows it should have been a bigger victory so it can be argued the win was a little flawed but the Panthers do not deserve to be such a big favorite in their conference opener. Here, we play on road teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (105) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Late Night Powerhouse. Sacramento St. is one of two new teams to enter the FBS and it has been an encouraging start as it is 1-1 with the loss being a close one at Eastern Michigan followed up by a blowout win over Mississippi Valley St. The issue with the latter is that the Delta Devils are notoriously the worst team in the country year after year so it meant nothing except for posting its first ever FBS win. The Hornets have been a top team in the FCS for years but they basically lost everyone and got a new head coach in Alonzo Carter and the worst part, they were granted a move to the FBS after the portal so they got slim pickings. Fresno St. opened with a 39-0 loss at USC as the offense mustered only 116 total yards while the defense allowed 552 yards. This is an overreaction but it was against one of the best teams in the country and the Bulldogs are going to be Pac 12 contenders and this is the bounce back spot. Here, we play against road teams after allowing 4.5 or less passing ypa last game, with four or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (406) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. North Dakota St. has looked impressive in its first two games in the FBS as it has outscored its two opponents 71-7 but it played Jacksonville St., which was gutted by the portal and graduation and then destroyed Fordham so the competition was weak. And both of those were at home as it now hits the road for the first time, and as a favorite no less in its first ever Mountain West game and Air Force is not going to overlook the Bison in any form especially with this being a conference game. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent last week as it shut out Duquesne 34-0 so they were not tested but this team is ready to contend in the Mountain West Conference once again after two straight disappointing seasons. The defense was excellent last season and brings back eight starters while the rushing offense has enough back to continue to succeed at running the ball. Here, we play on teams good rushing team from last season that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc, in weeks 0-3, with 8 defensive starters returning. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) since 2022. 10* (402) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off an 8-5 season which was its first season since 2019 with a winning record and now it heads to the Sun Belt Conference expected to contend right away. The Bulldogs hung 80 points on Northwestern St. last week and while that is no competition to what they will see this week, getting that confidence in the first game is huge. Will they pull off the upset here? No but they can stay within this large number that is inflated from the LSU performance from last week. The Tigers absolutely destroyed Clemson as head coach Lane Kiffin let no distractions get in their way. That was the marquee game last weekend so it presents fading the letdown and while we cannot take anything away from them in that impressive performance, we are not going to see it again as the Tigers have a massive game at Ole Miss next week so they will not be showing much more. Here, we play on teams after allowing 2.75 or less yppl in their previous game, with five or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 29-8  ATS (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (393) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the RICE OWLS as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. Notre Dame blew out Wisconsin last week 41-13 but outgained the Badgers by only 66 total yards but won the turnover battle 2-0 which included a pick six. Notre Dame did hold Wisconsin to 67 yards rushing on 31 carries (2.2 ypc) but its own offense had just 111 yards on 32 carries (3.5 ypc) and while it will take a step down in class here, laying a big number in this matchup is not ideal. They are going to get a game where Rice is going to want to slow it to a snail pace by killing clock on the ground. Trying to cover more than six touchdowns makes that difficult as it would need everything to break their way. The Owls were expected to be a much improved team last season under first years head coach Scott Abbel but his implementation of the triple option never took because of lack of the right personnel but that could change this season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg last season, in weeks 0-3, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. This situation is 84-46 ATS (64.6 percent) since 2017. 10* (359) Rice Owls

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. With the exception of Syracuse winning 66-3 over New Hampshire last week, this is a solid spot for the Orange. It was an FCS opponent and with most every FCS team getting blown out in Week One, there is no overreaction to that win and the line is definitely saying that. Syracuse is expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC as it is coming off a 3-9 season but this could be a team that dominates on offense similar to how it did in 2024 when it was 10-3 behind Kyle McCord as Steve Angeli is back after getting injured last season and missed most of the season. California got blown out by UCLA and now heads to the east coast for its conference opener. The offense did some good things but certainly not enough ad the biggest concern for California off that loss is the rushing defense as it allowed 277 yards on 32 carries (8.7 ypc). Here, we play on home teams in the first two weeks of the season off a home win by 28 points or more after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. One of the more misleading finals from last week came from the Utah St./Idaho St. game as the Aggies 29-17 despite outgaining them 407-241 but losing the turnover battle 4-0 did them in. This is another situation where we can point to the overreaction and we are seeing it with this line as the Aggies are nearly four touchdown underdogs with a lot of that coming from last week. Utah St. is playing in the Pac 12 and could contend with an experienced team. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it won 24-10 despite winning the turnovers at +3. The Huskies are considered playoff contenders behind quarterback Desmond Williams but this is definitely a letdown spot coming off the big rivalry game where typically it has been the last game of the season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yppl last season, in weeks 0-3, after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 38-14 (73.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (337) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Week Two is always overreaction week in College Football and this is where we can find some of the best spots and take advantage of overreaction lines. In this case, we are not really seeing an overreaction line but a line that has not moved despite what happened last week and the fact 95 percent of the money is on Oklahoma. Michigan should be 0-1 but despite the win, the Wolverines were very unimpressive throughout the entire game which quarterback Bryce Underwood at the top of that list. Now he faces a legit defense that came into the season with the No. 3 Defensive Line and No. 4 Linebackers and is coming off a shutout over UTEP while allowing just 198 yards. This is the spot to take Michigan as already no one is one them and they will not be come gametime either as the Sooners will be heavily bet at the short number. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, who lost their last two games last season and had a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Saturday Early Dominator. Last week was filled with blowouts and while that will temper down as the season progresses, we see another one here. We took Alabama last week with the thought that it needed a statement win and even though it was just East Carolina, the Tide needed to come out strong. They did and we feel the same for Virginia Tech and while it won 73-3 last week against VMI, the Hokies will be out to do it again, this time against an FBS team and one that it lost to by 19 points last season. New head coach will be coaching with a chip on his shoulder after getting axed last season and he has already brought in a new culture. VMI is no good but Virginia Tech looked the part from years ago and he will not be letting up. Old Dominion also rolled last week against Norfolk St. but it was only by 21 points and the Monarchs only won the yards by 99 total. Here, we play on teams after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing 3.75 yards or less yppl, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Missouri and Kansas are coming off season opening blowout wins and they meet for the 122nd edition of The Border War. Starting in 2007, it was held at Arrowhead Stadium and the rivalry then fizzled away in 2012 until last year when Missouri won 42-31 and now they are in Lawrence playing each other for the first time since 2005. As for the Kansas offense, it welcomed back offense coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left for Penn St. for two seasons and his return should ignite the unit and we saw that in Game One albeit against an FCS opponent. The Missouri defense will be challenged on the road as the Tigers brought back only two starters from last season. The Jayhawks have been pegged as a six-win team this season and we expect them to get it done at home in their FBS opener after closing last season with three losses and ultimately missing out on a bowl game. Here, we play against nonconference Power 4 road teams that had a winning percentage between .600 and .800 last season playing a team that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in weeks 0-3. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic has not had a winning season since 2019 when it went 11-3 (not counting the 5-4 COVID season) and signs are pointing up in Boca Raton in the second year for head coach Zach Kittley. The Owls were 4-8 last season with seven of those losses by double digits so they were not competitive and the difference being in or not in games was the fact they were -21 in turnover margin which was easily the worst in the country. They gave it up 29 times and while 17 of those were interceptions from quarterback Caden Veltkamp, he injured his shoulder early in the season and he was limited while trying to do too much. He still set the school record for total offense which followed up being named the CUSA Offensive Player of the Year the previous season so he can produce when healthy and that he is at this point. Florida will be a popular play this season as a bounce back team, largely in part due to the Gators hiring Jon Sumrall who had successful stints at Tulane and Troy. They bring back a lot and hit the portal hard and come into the season with the #42 ranked team in experience (Florida Atlantic is #14) but there is no experience at quarterback as a pair of backups last season are competing for the starting job. This team will be on every Most Improved List but laying this number? No thanks. 10* (175) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. We are very high on Auburn this season and this game will set the tone. It is hard to believe but the Tigers have had five straight losing seasons, the last time this happened was 1946-1950 so it is rock bottom right now. Enter head coach Alex Goesh as we have a situation where a coaching change should boost the value of a team. He comes over from South Florida who turned around a program that was dug into the ground by Jeff Scott and he comes into another program that was going nowhere. While the offense has only one returning starter, several players followed Golesh including quarterback Byrum Brown along with a slew of receivers. While it was another rough season, there is value based on the record from last season and people see that to fade but six of the seven losses were by one possession with the other loss being just 10 points against Georgia. Baylor is another team that has underachieved in some recent seasons and coming off a 5-7 season, head coach Dave Aranda is firmly on the hot seat. Like Auburn, the Bears are hoping a transfer quarterback will help them turn the corner and in their case it is D.J. Lagway who comes over from Florida. He should have a better season but we are not sold and there is a brand new receiving room in place as well. This game is in Atlanta but Auburn will have the fan edge. 10* (210) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. Penn St. is a popular team to bounce back after the disappointment from last season and a main reason they are being backed to make the CFP is because the Nittany Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the country. But this is a sneaky tough game and they are still laying a massive number. While they very well may have reloaded, it could take some time for the chemistry to come together. One big concern is their defensive line as they were gutted in the trench as they lost 12 defensive linemen to the draft and the transfer portal. Marshall will surely try to take advantage of this with their expected potent run game. Marshall averaged about 197 rushing ypg last season which was No. 22 in the country and this is a recipe in controlling temp and shortening the game which is important for these big underdogs to stay within the number. Additionally, Marshall returns quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, giving the Thundering Herd some continuity heading into the season. The Marshall defense was a big reason they had a losing record last season but they are expected to be much better  While Penn St. has the much better talent simply because of who they are but this is a tough spot for the Nittany Lions especially with a brand new coaching staff and the fact they are No. 126 in experience. 10* (163) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. If any team needs a statement win in its season opener, it is Alabama as the natives are getting restless, fans and boosters alike, now that the Crimson Tide have not been to a National Championship game since 2021. They were hit in the face by Indiana 35-3, their worst loss in 28 years, to close out last season and that has been on the mind of everyone that is back this season and they need a blowout win as a team to get some swagger back. They are the No. 13 team in Experience Rankings which is a big strength this early in the season. On paper, the Tide have huge advantages all over the place especially on the defensive side when going against the East Carolina offense. They have five starters back with another two added from elsewhere and overall they have 61 percent of their production back. They face an East Carolina offense that was gutted as they have only one starter back from last season and that is a slot that made only one start. New offensive coordinator Jordan Davis arrives from North Texas, so ECU is installing a new system while replacing much of its production. The Pirates do have considerably more upside than the raw amount of returning production suggests but this will take shape last in the season when they have played a few games and will have their players into the systems heading into AAC play. 10* (182) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Toledo is getting too much respect here. The Rockets are coming off an 8-5 season and have not had a losing season since 2009 but it is a complete rebuild. Mike Jacobs, who won two straight SoCon championships with Mercer after winning a South Atlantic Conference title at Lenoir-Rhyne, takes over as head coach after Jason Candle left for Connecticut and he took several top offensive stars with him to Storrs as quarterback Kalieb Osborne, running back Kenji Christian, six wide receivers, and four offensive linemen are gone. The defense is in just as bad of shape as all nine defenders who were All-MAC selections have departed and overall, plenty of the missing pieces are coming from FCS Mercer. Michigan St. has had four straight losing seasons and also has a new head coach in Pat Fitxgerald who will look to get this program back to respectability. The Spartans defense can count on its returning talent and they are getting a bunch of good transfers coming in to go along with a decent base of players in a Fitzgerald system. The defense had only nine takeaways last season which was bottom ten in the country. The offense will be fine with quarterback Alessio Milivojevic who is back after taking over late in the season and was successful with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Great favorite value with the Sprtans. 10* (150) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the AKRON ZIPS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Wake Forest won nine games last season under first year head coach Jake Dickert and it was fortunate with four one possession wins. The Demon Deacons have a lot to replace on offense especially in the run game as leading rusher Demond Claiborne is gone along with four offensive linemen and they went 7-1 last season when they ran for 130 or more yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford is also gone and is being replaced by North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez and it is far from an upgrade. They will have to rely on their defense most likely once again. While it is a fade of Wake Forest, it is also a play on Akron that went 5-7 last season with nothing to play for as they were ineligible for a bowl game due to APR restrictions so head coach Joe Moorhead got the best out of his Zips squad and this could be his best team yet. The offense improved slightly from 2024 and now they have seven starters back but while one of those is not quarterback Ben Finley, they will turn to Reece Poffenbarger who has not started but sat behind Cam Ward at Miami and Drew Mestemaker at North Texas. Akron has not fared well against P4 teams at it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 but those losses were Auburn, Ohio St. twice, Michigan St., Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina and Nebraska and this Wake Forest edition is not in that grouping. 10* (143) Akron Zips

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Opening Enforcer. We have seen the UNLV line on the move as this number opened at 3 and moved the most in late July and has slightly risen again. The season UNLV had last year is a big reason and the Rebels are favored to win the Mountain West Conference but bring back only seven starters total and have a new quarterback in Jackson Arnold who has underachieved in his two previous stops. He will be fine here based on the competition he will be facing is a lot weaker but this is a tough matchup as he is prone to getting sacked and will face a heavy pressure defense. Memphis comes in with a new head coach and a relatively overworked roster but the Tigers look to be in good shape. Charles Huff takes over after turning around programs at Marshall and Southern Mississippi with the latter being the most recent and very impressive as he turned a 1-11 team into a 7-6 bowl team last season. Now he heads to Memphis and a program with the highest NIL money to spend in the Group of 6 thanks to $25 million from FedEx alone. He brought 12 important players with him from Southern Mississippi to provide instant chemistry and hired two awesome coordinators. Great value in this spot as we have this line UNLV -1.2. 10* (315) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the NORTH DAKOTA ST. BISON for our CFB Game of the Month. North Dakota St. comes in as a significant favorite in its first ever FBS game but this isn’t just any new FBS team and we have this number at 13.7. The Bison have ten FCS national titles in the last 15 seasons and won five D-II national championships so they have a winning pedigree and come in as a near co-favorite to win the Mountain West Conference at +300 with a win total of 8.5. Offensively last season, they were among the best in the nation on third downs and controlled the time of possession battle in every game with the exception of the playoff loss to Illinois St. They have to break in a new quarterback in Nathan Hayes but he has plenty of experience in the system as a backup as he logged a lot of time and he has the tools and mobility. They were No. 1 in the country in total defense and scoring defense and bring a ton back. There isn’t a huge difference as Jacksonville St. is just three years removed from the FCS level and while it has found great success with three nine-win seasons, it is a rebuilding year for the Gamecocks and they could not have asked for a worse scenario than what they will be going into. The running game was outstanding but lost a lot and the defense will be tested. 10* (320) North Dakota St. Bison

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Game of the Year. Indiana looks unstoppable and unbeatable at this point and the Hoosiers come in as overwhelming favorites to win the National Championship at -340 and yes we are going contrarian with value in the spread. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the Semifinals and after the Oregon rampage, the Hoosiers were at 7.5 across the board. We have since seen it move to 8.5 which is in reality is a dead number but any extra edge could be huge. The line of scrimmage usually dictates the outcomes of most games and that will certainly be the case here. The Hoosiers usually have that advantage but not here and we start with the Miami defense. College Football Nerds on X provided a great rushing statistic, If you look at their season, in all the close games (Penn State, Iowa, Ohio St.) Indiana was held under 3.5 yards/carry. Every time Indiana ran for 4+ yards/carry vs  a P4, they won by 25+ points. In this matchup, the Hurricanes are tied for No. 7 in the country, allowing 3.0 ypc and in the three CFP games, they have allowed 255 yards on 80 carries (3.2 ypc). Overall, Miami is No. 15 in Defensive EPA and it recorded 13 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in wins over Texas A&M, Ohio St. and Mississippi. Offensively, Miami needs to run the ball and continuously run it even if there is no success early on. Miami ran 51 times against Mississippi and 37 times against Ohio St. and they line has the talent and the power to control and also, surrendered just eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss in the three games. Against Power 4 teams, Indiana has been run on more than 30 times only twice, Penn St. and Iowa and we know the results of those games. Yes, it is easier said than done, but stick to the plan and Miami will cover and has a chance to win outright. 10* (287) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Ducks/Hoosiers Dominator. This is a rematch of the meeting from October 11 where Indiana went to Eugene and won 30-20. The Ducks shut down Texas Tech as they won outright 23-0 as a slight dog. Oregon has dominated since the first meeting with the exception of a two-point win at Iowa and the rematch is in their favor at this number where we do not even need to win outright. In the three rematches in the CFP, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch as Oklahoma and Georgia lost while Mississippi was the only team to sweep but that was against Tulane. The top line rushing numbers for Oregon were not good in the first meeting but it was quarterback Dante Moore that brought it down as the three running backs that ran for more than 10 yards rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries (6.4 ypc) so they can have more success with more running attempts. Moore was not good but the tape from the first game will help immensely. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 26-6 (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (275) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFP Canes/Rebels Enforcer. Mississippi is on borrowed time and this is the spot where it ends. The Rebels are off a huge win over Georgia and as soon as the game ended, the entire assistant coaching staff that will be heading to LSU left for Baton Rouge to be available for the opening of the transfer portal. This is not ideal for preparation as they are getting just a week as opposed to having 12 days to get ready for Georgia which was a team they knew already anyway. The offense was great against the Bulldogs but Georgia did not have much of a pass rush all year long, and against Mississippi, it had no sacks and had just three tackles for loss. Miami is a different story and facing a similar quarterback like they saw when they played Texas A&M, they sacked Marcel Reed seven times and followed that up by sacking Julian Sayin five times and in total, the Hurricanes allowed 17 total points and 134 total rushing yards. This defense is going to be the difference. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 22-11 (66.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (273) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our Duke’s Mayo Bowl Smash. Mississippi St. comes in 5-7 and is favored in a bowl game after coming into the season with a win total of three after winning only two games last season. The Bulldogs find themselves in the Duke's Mayo Bowl after both Iowa St. and Kansas St. opted out of playing a postseason game as they got in per their high APR numbers and also leapfrogged Florida St., Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Rutgers and Temple because they all declined invitations as well. Ther offense was surprisingly good as it finished No. 52 in EPA but quarterback Blake Shapen has opted out and freshman Kamario Taylor will get the start. Wake Forest counters with a defense that is No. 11 in EPA and No. 8 in Success Rate and the Demon Deacons should dictate the game. The offense was below average at No. 85 in EPA but faces an awful defense that ranked No. 88 in EPA and allowed 35 points or more in half of their games including 40 or more points four times. Here, we play on neutral field teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (269) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our Tide/Hoosiers Enforcer. Indiana is the story of college football for the second straight season as the Hoosiers went through the season undefeated which included winning the Big Ten Conference Championship over Ohio St., hanging the Buckeyes their first loss in 16 games. The Hoosiers came in as 3.5-point underdogs in that game and now are seeing over a 10-point swing and it is just too much. Indiana put up crazy points over the second half of the season, scoring 31 points or more in five of their last seven games but all five of those were against non-bowl teams. The defenses will be the focal point and while Indiana is No. 14 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17. Offensively, the Crimson Tide were below average by their standards at No. 31 in EPA with the running game being the biggest issue with the last two games showing it at just 29 total yards on the ground. This is where we go contrarian as Indiana has allowed only one FBS team to grab 100 rushing yards. This is just the 13th time the Tide have been underdogs over the last 17 years and have gone 8-4 ATS. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 42-12 (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (261) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our Canes/Buckeyes Dominator. This line opened at 9.5 and has remained steady and we are going with the biggest underdog of the CFP Quarterfinals and the Hurricanes. Miami owned the line of scrimmage against Texas A&M as the Hurricanes had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on defense against an Aggies team that rarely gave up either. The Buckeyes allowed Indiana to get five sacks of Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship and it was by far the most pressure he’s faced this season. This Miami team showed its defense is not overrated as they held Texas A&M to 89 yards rushing and that was the Aggies biggest strength. The Miami offensive line allowed only two sacks and six tackles for loss against Texas A&M which was among the nation’s best in both categories. The key for Miami will be being able to keep their run game going and not having to get into a drop back game. While the Buckeyes defense is one of the best in the country, eight teams they faced were ranked outside the top 50 in scoring including three in the bottom 15 so it is a bit skewed. Indiana gave Miami the blueprint on how to beat Ohio St. and the Hurricanes have the personnel. Here, we play on underdogs after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (257) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Citrus Bowl Smash. All of the chaos at Michigan is fueling this line but things have settled down. The firing of head coach Sherrone Moore was obviously the big news and that could have been the beginning of the end for the roster but there have only been a handful of opt-outs and interim head coach Biff Pogi said there would be no more heading into the game. The big one is quarterback Bryce Underwood who was feared to opt out but will play and he leads an offense that was actually better than what has been said as the Wolverines finished No. 35 in EPA and they did lean more on the running game which was No. 11 in EPA. Normally this would be a tough matchup but the losses on the Texas defense are enormous. Of their top 12 tacklers, seven hit the transfer portal or opted out but they did retain their top tackler. The Longhorns are extremely thin across all three levels. The Texas offense will have Arch Manning at quarterback but lost second leading receiver DeAndre Moore and the running game lost their top three running backs to the transfer portal so Michigan has the defensive edge. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (253) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Reliaquest Bowl Winner. This is a great matchup on paper as it is strength against strength and weakness against weakness so we look at the variables surrounding it. Iowa closed the season with a pair of wins over Michigan St. and Nebraska to finish 8-4 and it could have been a lot better. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa St. by three points and its three Big Ten Conference defeats were by 12 combined points against Indiana, Oregon and USC. The first two were at home but this is a team with yet another potent defense and those three losses were against explosive offenses, similar to Vanderbilt, and they held them to 21.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes have a challenge against this Commodores offense and Diego Pavia but how much is he vested after losing the Heisman and partying across the country after. One of his biggest weapons, tight end Eli Stowers, opted out and he was the main third down target. The Hawkeyes offense struggled at times but only against excellent defenses and against below average units, they put up 37 or more points five times and Vanderbilt comes in No. 119 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (249) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Music City Bowl Dominator. The line has come down considerably with Tennessee likely not being fully vested even though it is taking place in Nashville. The Volunteers were solid on offense as they finished No. 22 in EPA but are without a big piece. The good news for Tennessee is that quarterback Joey Aguilar is not opting out and will be playing but he will be without his top wide receiver as Chris Brazzell II who led the team with 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns and this will allow Illinois to focus more on the run game and stopping Desean Bishop. Defensively is where the real concern is as the Volunteers were No. 122 in EPA after being one of the best defenses in the country last season. They are going to be without three of their top tacklers on top of it and Illinois will take advantage as quarterback Luke Altmyer will be playing and he should have his full complement as any players in the transfer portal will be allowed to play and only one is a starter anyway. Illinois has played the tougher schedule and looking at the Tennessee schedule, its best win was 5-7 Mississippi St. in overtime and that was its only win against a bowl team. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (246) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our Independence Bowl Smash. Louisiana Tech opened as a touchdown favorite and it has moved up slightly and for good reason as Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in a bowl game this season. The Chanticleers finished 6-6 with only one win against a bowl team and that was a win over Appalachian St. which was 5-7 and got into a bowl game because of a lack of eligible teams. In their five losses against bowl teams, they lost by 41, 38, 40, 5 and 49 points so they were rarely competitive. Overall, Coastal Carolina outgained only two FBS opponents and was outgained by an average of 167.6 ypg and the offense is in trouble here as starting quarterback Samari Collier is questionable and both starting tackles are in the transfer portal and will not play. Louisiana Tech is 7-5 with all five losses against bowl teams but four of those were on the road and the lone home loss was by one point. This is obviously not a home game but it is in Shreveport so the Bulldogs will have the crowd edge and they come in with the much better defense. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (244) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our Texas Bowl Annihilator. LSU was another Power 4 disappointment this season and head coach Brian Kelly paid the price as he was fired after a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M and the Tigers closed 2-2 after that under interim head coach Frank Wilson III. He will remain the coach in the Texas Bowl before he goes to Mississippi and the roster will be pretty decimated as he will be bringing a lot of players with him when he takes over an unknown role within the offense. The offense was bad to begin with and it will be Michael Van Buren at quarterback who will be making his fourth start. The Tigers are No. 117 in Offensive EPA and will be facing a very underrated Houston defense that started great, had a lapse and then ended great. The Houston offense got a boost as quarterback Conner Weigman announced shortly after the end of the regular season that he planned to return for his senior season after throwing for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 644 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cougars head coach Willie Fritz came into a below average situation and after going 4-8 in his first season, he led them to a 9-3 record. The opt-pouts and transfers are minimal and the Cougars are going to be extremely motivated in getting that tenth win. 10* (240) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Pop Tarts Bowl Dominator. Motivation is a huge factor in bowl games and it can be hard to get a read on some teams on how motivated they will be and BYU is going to be highly motivated as it will be out to prove a point that it belonged in the CFP with the Cougars only two losses coming against Texas Tech. One positive sign for them is that head coach Kalani Sitake turned down Penn St. and signed an extension to stay in Provo and his players respect that immensely so they are in it for him and playing with that chip on their shoulder. The one main concern is that BYU will be without its top two running backs, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, and RB2 Sione Moa. Martin elected to have shoulder surgery last week to increase his healing time. It is a blow but the rest of the roster is intact. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key said the matchup is just as important to his team, which was 8-0 and ranked in the top 10 at one point before dropping three of its last four. We do not like how the team finished so motivation can only go so far. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after two or more consecutive straight up losses. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (232) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our Pinstripe Bowl Smash. The two biggest disappointments in the Power 4 square off in New York. Penn St. opened the season 3-0 then lost its next three games which led to the firing of head coach James Franklin and then losing its next three games with interim head coach Terry Smith before closing  with three straight wins to become bowl eligible. Penn St. has been surprisingly good on offense as it is No. 26 in EPA and No. 18 in Success Rate and will be facing a defense that is No. 50 in EPA. Ethan Grunkemeyer was not horrible at quarterback as his numbers were arguably better than Drew Allar so it has not been a downgrade which many thought it would be. He has posted a higher completion percentage and a higher passer rating while putting up an equal yards per completion.  Clemson will be down a ton due to injuries, transfers and opt-outs as 27 players will not see action including eight players that started in the regular season finale. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 175 and 230 passing ypg, in a non-conference game between two teams from Power 4 conferences. This situation is 24-11 (68.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (227) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Rate Bowl Winner. Minnesota is the popular public play here based on the fact it is 6-0 in bowl games under head coach P.J. Fleck and comes in as a bowl favorite for the fifth straight season. The Gophers offense has been non-existent and they have averaged 260.5 ypg over their last four games and on the season, they have put up only 279.8 ypg against FBS opponents while scoring just 19.4 ppg. It will not be easy here against a Lobos defense that has allowed only 321.0 ypg over their last four games while giving up just 18.0 ppg over that stretch. New Mexico comes in on a six-game losing streak and should had an opportunity to play in the Mountain West Conference championship but the computer rankings that decided the tiebreakers had the Lobos in fourth position so they will be taking this game very serious under first year head coach Jason Eck. This is the first bowl game since 2016 and the first non-New Mexico Bowl since the 2004 Emerald Bowl. Here, we play against teams after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 135-68 (66.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (221) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS/HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS OVER for our CFB Total of the Month. We do not hit the totals market much but we are going in for this game which is a unique situation. California fired head coach Justin Wilcox despite a decent run and it has been interim head coach Nick Rolovich leading the Golden Bears and he heads back to his college roots. He was the quarterback at Hawaii back in the early 2000s and then was the head coach here from 2016-2019 and goes up against a former teammate. Timmy Chang takes his Rainbow Warriors into the Hawaii Bowl and the narrative here is that both coaches and former quarterbacks are going to want to put up points and we have gotten the right side of the line move. While there will likely be no running up the score, the former slingers will want to put up points in what could be one of the most entertaining Hawaii Bowls in recent memory. Maybe not a five overtime game like last season but points should be plenty. 10* Over (217) California Golden Bears/(218) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our Frisco Bowl Winner. This is the ultimate gut check as we sort of saw this yesterday with Washington St. but Ohio has more to prove with the scandal going on in Athens. First year head coach Brian Smith was fired for allegedly having relations with a student but this is a program that can withstand this as we saw it last season when head coach Tim Albin left before their bowl game and the Bobcats won the Cure Bowl. The big edge is having quarterback Parker Navaro who is not in the transfer portal as he is awaiting a decision on another year of eligibility. The line opened at 3.5 in a lot places and has gone up after the coaching news but that is where the value comes in. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played away from home as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2021. 10* (216) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES for our Dukes/Ducks Enforcer. James Madison is not getting much of a chance here with a +1100 moneyline and not many are backing the big pointspread with 77 percent of the money and 82 percent of the tickets on Oregon. There is a certain formula that the Dukes will try and create and it is a simple one, play to their strengths which will shorten the game to keep it close into the final quarter. Looking at the defense first, James Madison is going to try and make the Ducks one dimensional and it has the defense to do that which follows the same script that Iowa did in its game against Oregon. The Dukes finished No. 2 in Rushing Defense which is the third time in four years they have finished in the top 5 and it is no coincidence two of those were with Curt Cignetti there and Oregon had its worst rushing game of the season this year against Indiana. Offensively, James Madison is No. 6 in Rushing Offense and tied for No. 2 in Time of Possession so it controls tempo and any success in the running game is going to shorten this game. A lot of the talk is about how head coach Bob Chesney is distracted with his new duties at UCLA but on the other side, offensive coordinator Will Stein and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi have taken head coaching jobs and are just as distracted. 10* (291) James Madison Dukes

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Canes/Aggies Dominator. The home field edge here is going to be a big one even though it is being downplayed because of the early start. The running game will be important and the Aggies have a significant edge when looking past the top line numbers. The strength for Miami is the rushing defense as it is No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 10 in ypc but the metrics tell a different story as the Hurricanes are tied for No. 73 in EPA/Rushing. They go up against an Aggies offense that is No. 26 in EPA/Rushing. Texas A&M has rushed for over 200 yards in seven games and South Carolina was the only team to hold Texas A&M under 100 yards rushing with the reason being the Aggies had to abandon the run after falling behind 30-3 at halftime. On the other side, the Hurricanes are No. 100 in EPA/Rushing on offense so if there is talk being thrown around that Miami has the overall rushing advantage, it does not. A lot of the success for Miami came by way of not losing the turnover battle which it did only three times and had 20 takeaways. Texas A&M turned the ball over only eight times in its first nine games but coughed it up eight times in its final three games and we will call the latter an aberration so taking care of the ball will be the big edge. 10* (298) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFP Tide/Sooners Enforcer. Obviously the big story in this one is whether or not Alabama actually belongs here with its three losses and the season culminating with a bad loss against Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is time to prove they belong and what better way to do it playing with double revenge, losing to the Sooners 23-21 this season and having their eight-game winning streak snapped no thanks to a -3 turnover margin and falling 24-3 last season in the second to last game of the season that essentially knocked them out of the CFP. The defenses will be the focal point and while Oklahoma is No. 2 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17 so the quarterbacks will likely determine this outcome and Alabama has the big edge. Ty Simpson completed a season-low 48.7 percent of his passes in his last game against No. 3 Georgia but he dominated the Sooners with 326 yards passing in the first meeting. On the other side, John Mateer has been up-and-down with 12 passing touchdowns and 10 picks. He suffered an injury on his throwing hand that required surgery and now he is in for a test against the SEC’s top pass defense and he struggled in the first meeting with only 138 passing yards. 10* (295) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our Gasparilla Bowl Smash. While we do not have a false favorite here, we have an overpriced favorite and Memphis has the matchup edges we are looking for. The Tigers did lose their final three games and are without their coach so those two factors are the reason the number is so big but as long as they can execute, this is right there to win outright. The rushing game will be a deciding factor and Memphis has the advantage. The Tigers are outrushing opponents by 1.3 ypc (5.1-3.8) while NC State is outrushing opponents by only 0.3 ypc (4.7-4.4) and the EPA number variances are big. Memphis is No. 2 in EPA/Rushing and going up against the No. 89 ranked EPA/Rushing defense of NC State while the Wolfpack are No. 41 in EPA Rushing on offense but the Tigers counter with the No. 40 ranked EPA/Rushing in defense. We cannot trust any part of the Wolfpack defense which is No. 126 in overall EPA and they really struggled against bowl teams and were outgained 6.8 to 6.5 yppl. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (207) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our Xbox Bowl Annihilator. This line has been all over the place early on as Arkansas St. was the favorite out of the gate and then it did a complete flip but has gone back to the Red Wolves laying a short number after it was announced Missouri St. head coach Ryan Beard was leaving for Coastal Carolina and will not be on the sidelines for this bowl game. This is another team that backed into a bowl game because of not enough eligible teams but the coaching aspect is a big deal. Missouri St. does possess a solid passing attack as it is No. 38 in EPA/Passing but against a weak schedule and bringing this down is the fact the Bears were sacked 44 times, the third most in the country. The aforementioned weak schedule is No. 123 in the nation and Missouri St. went just 2-4 against bowl teams while getting outgained 6.9 to 6.1 yppl. The coaching situation for Arkansas St. is much more stable with veteran Butch Jones on the sidelines and the Red Wolves do bring in some momentum. They started the season 1-4 without a FBS victory but closed 5-2 down the stretch to become bowl eligible and they won their last game to do it, a one point win over Appalachian St. They come in with the stronger defense and should blow up the Bears offensive line. 10* (302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS for our Ventures Bowl Dominator. There will be no lack of motivation for either team as Louisiana has lost three straight bowl games, all under head coach Michael Desormeaux in all three of his seasons here, so they will be out to win. Delaware meanwhile was not even supposed to be here as it is in its first season at the FBS level and typically not eligible but because of a lack of eligible teams, the Blue Hens were awarded a trip. This is also a clean game where there are limited opt outs and transfer portal decisions so what we saw is what we will get. The Louisiana momentum can play a big role here with this being an early bowl game as the Cajuns started the season 2-6 and entered November needing to win out and they did just that. They got the four wins they needed, the first three of which they were underdogs and the fourth in overtime, and come in the more healthy team as they will have quarterback Lunch Winfield back at quarterback and this is big since the Cajuns finished second in the SBC in total offense and it is up-tempo with Winfield shouldering the balanced attack. Delaware quarterback Nick Minicucci can spin it and leads an offense that was No. 29 in EPA/Passing but a lot of that was due to them playing a schedule ranked No. 135. 10* (203) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our Salute to Veterans Bowl. Jacksonville St. is coming off a tough loss in the C-USA Championship to Kennesaw St. in the final minute but that is not going to produce a letdown as the fact the Gamecocks are even going to a bowl game is a huge success based on preseason expectations. They have the matchup edges here as they should be able to own the line of scrimmage and the running game will be the difference. Jacksonville St. comes in as one of the best rushing teams in the country as it is No. 17 in EPA/Rushing while averaging 5.7 ypc which is No. 21 and faces a Troy defense that is decent against the run but nothing good enough to be able to spot the Gamecocks. Especially when they just allowed 318 yards to James Madison in the SBC Championship. Overall on both sides, Jacksonville St. outrushes opponents by 1.6 ypc (5.7-4.1) while the Trojans are getting outrushed by 1.9 ypc (2.8-4.7). Additionally, Troy has been outgained overall in seven of its last eight games. Here, we play against neutral field teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) since 1992 and we can bank on the moneyline situation since we are on the underdog. 10* (200) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Army/Navy Dominator. Navy snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a convincing 31-13 win as it outgained Army 378-178 and it marked the third time in the last four years that the underdog has won outright. For the Midshipmen, they finished in a tie with Tulane and North Texas atop the American at 7-1 but missed out on the championship game because of tiebreakers. The season is far from done as they have this rivalry and a date with Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on January 2. It was a disappointing season for Army after coming off a 12-win season in 2024 but it lost a lot coming in so the Black Knights were not expected to have the same success and it started rough with a 1-3 start that included a season opening loss to Tarleton St. of the FCS but the Texans are the No. 5 ranked team in the FCS and Army went on to close out 5-2 with the two losses coming by eight points combined. We have another live dog this season. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 42-13 ATS (76.4 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.8 ppg. 10* (453) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our Big 10 Championship Winner. The top two teams in the CFP square off in a meaningless championship game as the loser of this game will not fall out of the top four in the CFP and while a conference championship is a prestigious honor, health is important. It does mean more for the Hoosiers as they have never won one let alone be in one and if not for anything else, they will want to showcase quarterback Fernando Mendoza as Heisman votes are not due until two days after this game. The same can be said for Ohio St. quarterback Julian Sayin but he has fallen into third with Diego Pavia moving ahead of him in the odds. Ohio St. is going to be the huge public play here as all the Buckeyes do is cover as since losing to Michigan last year, they have gone 14-1-1 ATS covering by over a touchdown per game on average so this is our contrarian move. It is the Buckeyes defense that gets all of the accolades and rightfully so as they are No. 4 in EPA and No. 9 in Success Rate but just No. 68 in Havoc. Meanwhile, Indiana is right there and arguably more consistent as the Hoosiers are No. 12 in EPA, No. 14 in Success Rate and No. 12 in Havoc while holding eight opponents to season lows in yardage. The offenses are extremely similar as well the EPA, Success Rate and Havok separated by 6, 1 and 4 spots with both teams sitting in the top 12 in all three categories. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (119) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. Georgia is one of six teams seeking revenge in championship weekend and its loss against Alabama by three points was the only one of the six games that was decided by one possession. The Bulldogs have won eight straight games since suffering that loss at home and only two of those were decided by one possession with both of those being on a neutral field including one in this same stadium last week against Georgia Tech. That will deter some from backing the Bulldogs as they foresee another tight one that could go either way. Additionally, history will decide some minds but the past is the past with different rosters as Georgia has lost 10 of 11 against Alabama since 2007 and is 0-4 against the Crimson Tide at Mercedes-Benz Stadium but seven of the 10 Alabama wins have been by only one possession. Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for just 130 yards in the loss to Alabama but he has improved immensely since then with the exception of the Charlotte game where he was not needed and the Georgia Tech game where the Bulldogs mainly ran the ball. He has thrown for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns, while adding 403 yards and eight scores on the ground yet the Bulldogs will likely try and pound it out as Alabama is not good against the run according to the metrics. Starting center Drew Bobo has been ruled out which is a blow but the Bulldogs will get two key weapons back on offense with wide receiver Talyn Taylor, who has been out since the first meeting against Alabama, and running back Chauncey Bowens, who has been out since the Texas game. 10* (115) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Big 12 Championship Winner. BYU and Texas Tech are in a rematch for the Big 12 Championship and we are expecting a much closer game this time around. We have to examine the first meeting one month ago and novice bettors will just look at that score and hammer the Red Raiders once again. BYU was getting 13 points at Texas Tech in the first meeting and is now getting the same amount on a neutral field so there is value right away. Sure, the Red Raiders won that first meeting 29-7 but that score does not tell the story as it was BYU that hurt themselves with a -3 turnover margin as the Cougars were outgained by only 113 yards. The defense allowed two touchdown drives and did hold the Red Raiders to five field goals, three of which were because of short fields where the drive totaled two yards. Texas Tech is known for its potent offense by the public but that is a misconception as it is No. 79 in EPA, No. 78 in Success Rate and No. 66 in Havok. It is the defense that has carried this team and BYU had to toss away its gameplan in that first meeting after falling behind early as the Cougars are No. 27 in EPA, No. 20 in Success Rate and No. 34 in Havok. On both sides, it is strength on strength so a clean game means a close game as BYU did not turn the ball over in seven of their games. With this game in Texas, many will think it will be a Texas Tech crowd by a significant amount but that will not be the case as the Cougar faithful travel well. BYU is 6-0 ATS in its last six away or neutral field games coming off a home win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (111) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Championship Winner. It was a four-way tie for first place in the MWC and since not all four teams played one another, computers took over the tiebreaker procedure as it was broken by a composite average of metrics: Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource rankings. UNLV and Boise St. had the best averages and the Broncos got the home field based on its head-to-head win. We used Boise St. in that first meeting as the Broncos won that game 56-31 at home and in a span of only seven weeks, the line goes from -13 in that first game to -4.5 for the MWC Championship. The Broncos finished with the worst record of the four top teams but were able to snag the home field and the good news is that quarterback Maddux Madsen will be back after missing three games but it will be the running game to be the difference as Boise St. ran for 294 yards and the Rebels come in No. 133 in Defensive Rushing EPA. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played on the road as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl and after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games going up against teams allowing 6.2 or more yppl. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +30.6 ppg. 10* (110) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Championship Winner. This game has seen a line flip as Jacksonville St. opened up as the slight favorite but Kennesaw St. was bet heavy out of the gate as the Owls were underdogs for less than 10 hours. The Gamecocks secured the home field for the C-USA Championship based on the head-to-head tiebreaker as they took the first meeting 35-26 three weeks ago and the sharp early money went the other way despite that. The reason being is that the first meeting was a skewed final score as it was Kennesaw St. that outgained Jacksonville St. by 128 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 and those four turnovers led to 14 points. The 579-yard output was a season high for Kennesaw St. and there is no reason for it to slow down and get the needed points as after averaging 19.4 ppg through their first five games, the Owls have averaged 36.0 ppg over their last seven games. Also, those four turnovers were easily the most in any game and the Owls had only nine other giveaways in their other 11 games combined. The four losses by Jacksonville St. came against teams that finished no better than 7-5 so the Gamecocks were not beaten by elite competition while the Owls other two losses were on the road at Indiana in a not surprising blowout and at Wake Forest by only one point. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 24 points or more in the first half of the last game going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +4.0 ppg. 10* (103) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher Winner. It has been a lost season for LSU as a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M cost head coach Brian Kelly his job but the Tigers are still 7-4 following a pair of uninspiring wins against Arkansas and Western Kentucky and those lethargic efforts actually help us with the number. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is out but Michael Van Buren, Jr. has looked good in relief and while this Sooners defense is a different beast, the value is still on our side. While the offense has struggled all season, the defense remains legit as they are No. 22 in EPA and No. 28 in Success Rate. The Oklahoma defense has carried this team as it is No. in EPA, Success Rate and Havok but like the Tigers, the offense has struggled as quarterback John Mateer is still not healthy. This is another game with a very low total which makes the double-digit underdog much more appealing. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (383) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Rivalry Rout Winner. Vanderbilt and Tennessee meet for the 119th time with a lot on the line for both sides but more so for the Commodores. Vanderbilt is No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings and needs to win and get some help and it did not help that Utah won on Friday. It has been a magical season for the Commodores as they are 9-2 and have a chance to get to 10 wins for the first time in program history. They possess one of the best offenses in the nation as they are No. 2 in EPA and No. 3 in success Rate and will be facing the worst Tennessee defense in the last five years as the Volunteers come in No. 118 in EPA and No. 127 in Success Rate. Tennessee would like nothing more than to play spoiler against its hated rival and extend its six-game winning streak in this series. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg and after allowing 2.0 or less rushing ypc last game going up against teams allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (347) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year Winner. At the start of the season, it would have been no surprise that this could be a game for a chance to make it to the Conference USA Championship but just reversed. A win Saturday when the Owls travel to Liberty will put Kennesaw St. into the C-USA title game against either Western Kentucky or Jacksonville St. After two wins last season by a combined four points, the Owls are 8-3 including 6-1 in the conference and they come in off a win over Missouri St. which came after that once conference loss at Jacksonville St. Liberty has had the most disappointing season in the conference as it was the overwhelming favorite but it has been a disaster as the Flames opened 3-1 but have lost their last three games and will not even make a bowl game as they went 0-3 in FBS nonconference games. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 ppl and after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-3 ATS (89.7 percent) since 2016. 10* (435) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our Signature Enforcer Winner. It has been another disappointing season for UTSA as after finishing 4-4 in the American last year, the Roadrunners came in as contenders this year but are 4-3 as the road woes did them in again. All three of those losses were on the highway, 32 and 38 point losses at South Florida and North Texas respectively and an awful six-point loss at Temple. UTSA also opened its home schedule this season with a loss against Texas St. which snapped a 10-game home winning streak but they have won four straight since that defeat. Playing Army as an underdog is always enticing but the Black Knights are just 1-3 when catching points while covering only two of those. Army is 5-5 so it needs to win here or against Navy in two weeks to become bowl eligible and we actually like that future spot better than this one. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (386) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog Winner. A trip to the Sun Belt Conference championship game is on the line as Troy and Southern Mississippi will square off to face James Madison. Troy had a bad two-game stretch to open November as it lost to Arkansas St. and Old Dominion by a combined score of 56-10 but got right against Georgia St. in a 31-19 win last week to move to 5-2 in the conference. The Trojans defense has carried the load as they are No. 36 in EPA and have only had two bad performances. Southern Mississippi is stuck in that skid that Troy was able to get out of as it is currently on a two-game slide with losses against Texas St. and South Alabama. The defense has been below average all season but hit a big time low the last two games, allowing 83 points and that is good news for the Troy offense. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more. This situation is 66-29 ATS (69.5 percent) since 1992. (69.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (399) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator Winner. The bad news for Tulsa is that it will miss a bowl game for the fourth straight season but it was a step in the right direction for the program under first year head coach Tre Lamb. The Golden Hurricane won seven games the previous two seasons under Kevin Wilson and they have a chance to win three straight games for the first time since the end of that 2021 season when it went bowling. The offense has picked it up of late as they have averaged 26.6 ppg over their last five games while averaging 28 ppg at home. UAB picked up a win over Memphis in the first game after head coach Trent Dilfer was fired but the Blazers are back to the same old Blazers as they have lost their last four games by an average of 21.3 ppg. The defense will not be able to get the job done here. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, in conference games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 2021. 10* (390) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator Winner. It has been a good run for East Carolina but it has not been good enough as the top half of the American was too tough to overcome. The Pirates had won four straight games after opening with a tough seven-point loss at Tulane but lost last week at UTSA by 24 points which put an end to any shot at the AAC Championship game. This is obviously the last regular season game with a lot to play for as the Pirates are 7-4 and have a shot to win their most games since 2013 when they managed 10 victories and surpass the eight wins they have gotten twice since then. Florida Atlantic has lost two straight including a tough three-point loss against Connecticut last week which knocked the Owls out of bowl consideration. Last home game yes, but not much motivation. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230, in conference games. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (345) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction Winner. The Big Game is big for both sides as Ohio St. needs to snap its current three-game losing streak against Michigan while the Wolverines not only want to keep the streak going but to keep their CFP hopes alive as they are currently ranked No. 15 so an upset here and in the Big Ten Championship gets them in. But we are working with a lot of points at home for a team that is full of confidence knowing what it can do to the Buckeyes. Michigan is 5-0 at home which includes a big win over Washington and the low total favors the underdog, especially one getting double digits. The Buckeyes have been atop the CFP since the jump and for good reason as they have yet to lose but have played a soft schedule. Yes they should win but the same has been said three of the last four years when they were favored. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (364) Michigan Wolverines