Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +10 | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is the contrarian play of the night as Houston comes in riding an eight-game winning streak with all those wins coming by double-digits and additionally, it is on a seven-game road winning streak. Conversely, the Blazers have dropped all three games of this current homestand, so it may not come as a shock that the linesmakers have put up a double-digit number here. That is an aggressive move as this is a 16-point spread swing for Portland from its last game against Washington where it got crushed by 14 points. The Blazers have had four days off to stew about that defeat as well as the three-game slide, so we will see a very motivated bunch tonight. Portland has not been an underdog of more than 4.5 points all season so this is a massive jump and the extra time off also helps knowing that the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest. 10* (720) Portland Trailblazers |
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12-08-17 | Mavs v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-109 | Push | 0 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Milwaukee is starting to put things together as it has won four of its last five games including two straight at home while going back, the Bucks are 5-1 in their last six home games. The offense is clicking as they have hit the century mark in seven straight games, averaging 107 ppg over that stretch after averaging 101.4 ppg through their first 16 games. Overall, Milwaukee is ranked No. 10 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Bucks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record. The Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston, but it was a solid effort as they had a lead going into the fourth quarter but could not hold on. Dallas has covered three straight games and is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games so this recent history is keeping this line down. How much so? Milwaukee is favored by just one point more here than it was favored by in Dallas just 20 days ago. Milwaukee will have no issues running the score up here if given the opportunity following a 32-point loss in Dallas in that game which was its biggest loss in close to two years and it lowest offensive output of the season. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-07-17 | Thunder -7 v. Nets | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
Oklahoma City and Brooklyn head to Mexico City Thursday night and it should be the Thunder that have the advantage in the high altitude. They have now won three straight games but failed to cover any of those and are now on a 0-6 ATS run but tonight gives them a solid opportunity to break that streak. Oklahoma City remains a game under .500 and have not been .500 or better since November 15. The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Brooklyn has held its own this season, going 9-14 overall but most of those wins have come against lower level teams as it is 6-6 against teams outside the top 16 while going 3-8 against teams inside the top 16 including 2-5 against the top 10. The Nets are coming off a win over Atlanta by 20 points and have gone 8-1 ATS over their last nine games but putting together actual winning streaks has been an issue as the Nets are just 1-7 following a win this season. Going back, they are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (705) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-06-17 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -2 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The Knicks have lost two straight and five of its last six games to fall under .500 for the first time since October 29 when they were 2-3. The last two losses came with the absence of Kristaps Porzingis who was out with an ankle injury, but he will return tonight which is huge to get back to their winning ways. He has missed four games this season and the Knicks have gone 0-4 in those games. New York is 10-5 at home overall and it is a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the number as a home favorite. Memphis snapped its 11-game losing streak with an upset win at home over Minnesota on Monday. The Grizzlies have lost five straight road games, yet it is catching the lowest spread over this stretch which suggests that this one could go either way, but they are clearly struggling without point guard Mike Conley who will be out until later this month. They are 1-10 without him overall on the season. Going back, the Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Grizzlies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (508) New York Knicks |
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12-05-17 | Jazz v. Thunder -7 | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the questionable status of Utah guard Rodney Hood who has missed four straight games due to an ankle injury. It has not affected the Jazz as they have won six straight games following a 2-8 stretch so it has been an up and down season to say the least. Last night, Utah defeated Washington by 47 points and Monday marked the fourth time in franchise history the Jazz have beaten a team by at least 45 points. Five of the six wins have come at home where Utah is 11-4 compared to just 2-7 on the road. Oklahoma City looks to be slowly turning the corner as it has won two straight games following a 1-5 run, but it has not dominated and going back, the Thunder have dropped five straight games against the number. That along with Utah covering six straight games has kept this line within reason and an opportunity for both ATS streaks to come to an end. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games while the Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (704) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-04-17 | Magic v. Hornets -7.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off a win yesterday against the Knicks and will be playing its fifth back-to-back of the season. It has been a struggle of late for the Magic which are 2-10 over their last 12 games and it was a rare road win on Sunday after having dropped seven straight on the highway but they were fortunate that New York was without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., the top two scorers for the Knicks. Going back, the Magic are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. Charlotte is struggling with a four-game losing streak which came after three straight wins, but the Hornets will be getting a weapon back tonight as Kemba Walker is returning after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. The Charlotte offense has dominated the Orlando defense in recent meetings as the Hornets have averaged 115.4 ppg while beating the Magic eight times in a row including a win earlier this season. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (504) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder -5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Minnesota will be the trendy pick here based on the struggles for Oklahoma City and those struggles are well documented. The Thunder are 8-12 following three straight losses with the last two coming against Dallas and Orlando being horrible but those were both on the road where they are 2-9. Oklahoma City is 6-3 at home with two of those losses coming by a combined three points and the other defeat coming against 19-4 Boston. One of those close losses came against Minnesota which has defeated the Thunder twice this season by five total points, so revenge will be in play here. The Timberwolves won in New Orleans two nights ago, but they have not exactly been lighting it up either. They do have a winning record but have lost four of their last seven games with those losses coming against Washington, Miami, Charlotte and Detroit so none have come against truly elite teams. While the season is young, Oklahoma City has heard the rumblings this week, so this is a statement game to show what this team is capable of. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games while the Timberwolves are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 10* (708) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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11-30-17 | Bucks v. Blazers -3 | Top | 103-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
The Blazers return home following a very successful roadtrip where they went 4-1 and overall, they have won seven of their last nine games. Portland is 7-4 at home where it has won three straight and currently has a half-game lead over Minnesota in the Northwest Division. The Blazers are third in the Western Conference in scoring differential behind Golden St. and Houston and it will be focused on revenge tonight following a season sweep last year and a loss in Milwaukee last month. The Bucks are coming off a 23-point win in Sacramento on Tuesday to improve to 2-1 on this current roadtrip and get back to .500 on the road. Winning consecutive games on the road has been a problem as it has lost three straight road games following a win in its last road game. The defense has been inconsistent all season especially on the road where they are allowing 107.4 ppg. The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-29-17 | Wizards v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Washington is coming off an upset win last night in Minnesota and won its first game without john Wall after the news came out that he will be out two weeks. The Wizards benefitted from a slow-paced game against the Timberwolves but that will not be the case tonight as Philadelphia likes to push the ball as it is ranked No. 4 in the NBA in possessions per game. Washington is ranked No. 12 in the same category but with no Wall, the slower the better as is was shown that Tim Frazier has trouble running the offense. The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. The Sixers had a three-game winning streak snapped against the Cavaliers on Monday as they lost by 22 points and they conclude their six-game homestand tonight before heading to Boston. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of four or more points including a perfect 3-0 ATS during this homestand. The home team has won four straight in this series including a Washington victory last month setting up and going back, the Sixers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers |
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11-28-17 | Suns v. Bulls -1 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Chicago will be out for some quick turnaround revenge after losing in Phoenix nine days ago which was the first loss in its current five-game slide. Four of those losses were on the road and going back, the Bulls have played six of their last eight games on the road. All against Western Conference teams. Chicago is coming off a home loss against Miami in its last game, but it was a competitive game and the Bulls have covered two straight home games. Coming in, we knew the Bulls would be in for a long season, but the schedule has not helped as they have played the No. 2 ranked schedule in the league. Chicago is the only team in the league to not win a game against the top 16, going 0-12 in those games but going 3-3 against the rest of the NBA. Phoenix has lost three straight games with nine of its last 11 games have come at home, so it has been a favorable run. While Chicago has played the second toughest schedule, Phoenix has played the second easiest. This line came out late due to the questionable status of leading scorer Devin Booker who is battling a toe injury. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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11-27-17 | Magic +4 v. Pacers | Top | 109-121 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Indiana guard Victor Oladipo who missed the last game with a knee injury and is questionable for tonight. He would like to go against his former team, but his status will be determined close to tipoff tonight, Nate McMillan and Oladipo said. If he goes, he will not be 100 percent which will keep the Pacers leading scorer in check. Indiana is just 5-4 at home including losses in three of its last five games. Orlando has been on a miserable run following a good start to the season as it has lost eight straight games including the first three on this current four-game roadtrip. The defense has been a real problem over this stretch as they have allowed at least 110 points six times while allowing an average of 117 ppg. The Indiana defense is not much better as it is allowing just three fewer ppg on the season and while Orlando is getting outscored by 2.5 ppg on the road, the Pacers are getting outscored by 1.8 ppg at home. The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. 10* (701) Orlando Magic |
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11-25-17 | Magic +6 v. 76ers | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The Sixers are one of the pleasant surprised in the NBA this season as they are off to a 10-7 starts and currently sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. They have won four of their last five games while covering all five of those which is affecting the line for tonight and there is a very good possibility that Philadelphia is looking ahead to its game with Cleveland. Orlando opened the season red hot with a 6-2 record, but things have gone downhill since then as the Magic are 2-9 over their last 11 games including seven straight losses. They lost in Boston last night but that was a horrible spot against the Celtics which were coming off their first loss after a 16-game winning streak. This is a good matchup for Orlando which is 5-2 ATS when getting five or more points and the Sixers have done most of their damage as underdogs, going 6-0 ATS when getting fewer than eight points. Philadelphia will be without Ben Simmons tonight which is a huge loss as he has been outstanding in his rookie season. 10* (701) Orlando Magic |
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11-24-17 | Pelicans v. Suns +6 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Phoenix is coming off a loss against Milwaukee in overtime on Wednesday which snapped a two-game winning streak. The Suns are now 7-12 on the season overall but have gone a more respectable 7-9 since the coaching change was made. The Suns scoring differential at home is skewed because of blowout losses against Portland and Houston by 48 and 26 points respectively and they do own impressive home wins over Utah and Minnesota and nearly pulled off another one against the Bucks. This is a horrible spot for New Orleans which improved to 10-8 overall following a couple signature wins over Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Five of their last six games have come at home where the Pelicans are 4-1 in those games and is currently on a two-game road losing streak. If the two big recent home wins are not bad enough, New Orleans travels to Golden St. tomorrow night so the letdown/lookahead angle is in full effect tonight. The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Suns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (518) Phoenix Suns |
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11-22-17 | Spurs v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
San Antonio improved to 8-2 at home following a pair of wins over Oklahoma City and Atlanta and it has enjoyed a favorable schedule as eight of its last 10 games have been at home. The Spurs are 3-4 on the road and two of those wins came against Chicago and Dallas, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They have been a road underdog twice this season and lost both games, a 12-point defeat at Minnesota and a 14-point loss at Boston. San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The Pelicans have won six of their last nine games while going 3-1 at home over that stretch. New Orleans is ranked fourth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and while the Spurs present a strong defense, they are 1-4 against teams ranked in the top ten in effective field goal percentage. San Antonio has won six of the last seven meetings but was favored by at least 6.5 points in all those games, so this line shows the difference in these teams right now. 10* (522) New Orleans Pelicans |
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11-22-17 | Clippers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Clippers have lost nine straight games, but they have not lost to any teams that are in the category of Atlanta. Five of those losses came against winning teams while the other four came against teams that are all 7-9 so the recent schedule has been a tough one. There are no excuses for big losing streaks like this with what is supposed to be a quality team, but this is the opponent Los Angeles needs to face to break this skid. Atlanta has lost two straight games as it is now just 3-14 overall. The offense has sputtered most of the season and it is coming off a season low 85 points against San Antonio. The Clippers defense is not on that same level, but this is one of the worst offenses it has seen over the recent losing stretch. The Hawks are 0-5 this season as a home underdog and the Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (507) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-22-17 | Celtics v. Heat +4 | Top | 98-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Boston is rolling right now and anyone that had Dallas in the Celtics last game endured a horrible beat as the Mavericks blew a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost the cover in overtime. The Celtics have won 16-straight games, so it is no surprise they are the biggest public consensus on the board tonight as they have gone 14-1-1 over that stretch so not many people will step in front of them, but they are vulnerable as they have had to come back from double-digits down in their last three games. Miami will be fired up to snap the Boston winning streak as it is coming off a 25-point home loss against Indiana on Sunday and it has now lost two straight home games. While the Heats have been outscored at home, they are outshooting opponents 45.7 percent to 41.9 percent here so the play has been better than the 3-5 record shows Miami lost the first meeting here by six points, but the difference was from the free throw line while committing 19 turnovers. 10* (512) Miami Heat |
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11-21-17 | Bulls +6 v. Lakers | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Two teams that will be outside the playoffs this season square off in Los Angeles in the lone game on the NBA slate for Tuesday. Chicago continues its four-game west coast roadtrip following a loss in Phoenix on Sunday where it was outscored by seven points in the fourth quarter and lost by eight points. The Bulls are just 1-7 on the road but one look at the schedule shows they have played some strong teams and while the Lakers are an improving team, they do not fit into that group. Chicago is 0-7 against top ten teams but a much more respectable 3-4 against teams outside the top ten. The Lakers are coming off a win over Denver on Sunday which snapped a two-game slide and they are favored by more than four points for just the second time this season, the first resulting in an outright loss against Phoenix this past Friday. Los Angeles is 5-6 against teams outside the top ten so these teams matchup well with each other giving an edge to the undervalued underdog. Going back, the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. 10* (701) Chicago Bulls |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
After starting the season 6-2, the Magic have gone through a 2-6 run including four straight losses, all against Western Conference teams. The last one came on Saturday against Utah by 40 points which is easily their worst loss of the season and the fact it came in front of the home crowd will provide plenty of motivation tonight for that not to happen again. Orlando has been solid at home for the most part as it was 4-2 heading into Saturday with one of those losses coming against Boston and a solid victory over San Antonio. While the Magic were getting blown out last game, Indiana was doing the blowing out yesterday as the Pacers rolled over the Heat in Miami by 25 points. That was their third straight win to move over .500 for the first time since November 3 and going back, they have also won three straight road games. This is a tough back-to-back situation and the Pacers are 1-3 this season in the second game of a back-to-back while going 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing with no rest. Orlando head coach Frank Vogel said to his team after that Utah loss, everyone in the locker room, including himself, will be judged by how they respond to their 40-point defeat. Going back, the Magic are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. 10* (508) Orlando Magic |
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11-19-17 | Bulls v. Suns -3 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a win over Charlotte on Friday which was just its third of the season and it has yet to pull off back-to-back wins this season. The Bulls have struggled with their offense considerably although they are coming off a 123-point performance against the Hornets which can be considered an aberration as they had topped 100 points only four other times in their previous 12 games. Chicago is 1-6 on the road with a scoring differential of -9.6 ppg. Phoenix has not fared much better this season as it is 6-11 overall but has gone a more respectable 6-8 since the coaching change was made. The Suns scoring differential at home is skewed because of blowout losses against Portland and Houston by 48 and 26 points respectively and they do own impressive home wins over Utah and Minnesota. Winning the winnable games is a necessity and this is one of those games as it opens a three-game homestand before hitting the road for a six-game, east coast trip. 10* (710) Phoenix Suns |
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11-18-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a move you see now and again but not to this extent. The Celtics are going from home underdogs to road favorites and it is almost a complete flip where they are going from +7 to -7 in a reverse venue change. Boston is the hottest team in the NBA with 14 straight wins and after coming back twice from 17 points down against Golden St. to pull off the win on Thursday, this is the prime letdown spot. Boston has won seven straight road games but only two of those have come by more than what they are favored by tonight. This includes a three-point win over the Hawks less than two weeks ago. Atlanta is the worst team in the Eastern Conference with a 3-12 record, but the value cannot be overlooked here as the Hawks are in prime upset mode here. They are coming off a win over Sacramento in their last game on Wednesday but there will be no letdown scenario based on who they are playing. Going back, the Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 while the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (508) Atlanta Hawks |
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11-17-17 | Blazers v. Kings +7.5 | Top | 82-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Portland is riding a two-game winning streak to move to 8-6 on the season but that can be considered a poor record based on the schedule it has played. The Blazers have played the easiest schedule in the NBA and the recent stretch has played a big part in that as 10 of their last 11 games have been at home where they have gone an average 6-4. They are 2-2 on the road while this is just the second game on the highway in November and going back, the Blazers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing straight up record. The schedule has been drastically different for Sacramento which has played the eighth toughest schedule in the league as nine of its first 14 games have come on the road. The Kings are coming off a three-game roadtrip on the east coast where they went 0-3 but they head home riding a two-game home winning streak which came against Oklahoma City and Philadelphia. There will be motivation tonight as the 126-80 drubbing to the Hawks marked the sixth-worst loss in franchise history, and their biggest since February 2, 2008. The Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games and that streak continues with a big effort tonight. 10* (718) Sacramento Kings |
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11-16-17 | Warriors v. Celtics +7.5 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
When Gordon Hayward went down in their season opener and they opened the season 0-2, the Celtics odds to win the Eastern Conference went up considerably. 13 consecutive wins later and the struggles for the Cavaliers have shot Boston back into the mix and it will be out to prove tonight that it belongs in elite company. The schedule has not been overly difficult which has helped but the Celtics are the only team in the NBA to not lose a game against the top 10, going 3-0 against such teams. They are 4-0 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and they have covered all five games this season as underdogs. Golden St. brings in a seven-game winning streak, so it is again playing at a high level after an average start of 4-3. The Warriors are a bucket away of covering all seven of those games as well but are overvalued here. In their last road game, they were favored by nine points over Denver and are laying less than a bucket less against the second-best team in the NBA which is not a proper adjustment. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (502) Boston Celtics |
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11-15-17 | Spurs v. Wolves -5 | Top | 86-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
We played against the Spurs last night and got the cover by a half-point and we will fade them again tonight in a much tougher matchup playing with no rest. They improved to 2-3 on the road with the victory and overall, they have won five of their last six games but all five of those wins came against teams with losing records. This is already the fourth back-to-back of the season for San Antonio and while it has gone 2-1 in the second game, in all three instances the Spurs were coming off a loss. Minnesota has gone 4-1 at home compared to 4-4 on the road and it is coming of a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2. Minnesota is off to the second-best start in team history and has scored more than 100 points for a team-record 12 straight games. The Timberwolves are ranked No. 8 in the NBA in offensive efficiency. San Antonio has won 12 straight meetings in this series including a home victory earlier this season, but the tide turns here as this is the best Minnesota team during this time and it is back home. Going back, the Timberwolves are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (708) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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11-15-17 | Raptors v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
New Orleans has won its first two games of this three-game homestand and going back, it has won five of its last six games and seven of its last 10 to improve to 8-6 on the season. The Pelicans look to finally be gelling as the offense is coming together, currently ranked No. 11 in scoring offense and tied for No. 7 in shooting as they are hitting 47.3 percent from the floor. It needs to be noted that the only loss during this recent six-game stretch came in Toronto so there is the revenge factor going into tonight as well. The Raptors are coming off a win last night in Houston as they put up 129 points on 51.9 percent shooting from the floor including 46.7 percent from long range. Toronto had lost its last game in Boston on Sunday and it has had a tough time playing consistently as the Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. They too have a solid offense as witnessed last night but the defense has held them back from putting together a better start to the season. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (712) New Orleans Pelicans |
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11-14-17 | Spurs v. Mavs +7 | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
The Mavericks have gotten off to a tough start to the season as expected since we knew it was a rebuild that was going to take place and the Mavericks have just two wins through their first 12 games. They are coming off a pair of losses against Cleveland at home and Oklahoma St. on the road and as is the case with most of the NBA, the home play of the Mavericks has been a lot better. Four of their last 10 games have been at home and that includes a win over Memphis and the three losses were close as Dallas missed the covers by a combined 2.5 points, so it has been very competitive. It has not exactly been a great start for San Antonio per its standards and while it looks like the Spurs have turned the corner with wins in four of their last five games, we are not buying that. This is coming from a six-game homestand and this is their first road game in November. The Spurs are 6-2 at home but just 2-3 on the road including three straight losses. San Antonio has struggled to finds a rhythm without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker and while this looks like a blowout on paper, it is never that easy. 10* (506) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-13-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -1 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Denver closed a six-game homestand with a three-game winning streak and overall, the Nuggets went 5-1 and now they hit the road for the first time in November. The only loss came against Golden St., so they have taken care of business everywhere else, but the road has been an issue. They are 2-3 on the highway with the wins coming against Atlanta and Brooklyn, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, while the three losses came against Utah, Charlotte and New York and Portland is ranked higher than all three of those teams. The Blazers have dropped two straight games and it has been a very average start as they are 6-6 despite the fact eight of their last nine games have come at home. In total, after this game and the Wednesday game against Orlando, Portland will have played 10 of 11 games at home and while the results so far have been average, it does have the rest edge where there has been no travel. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Blazers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (714) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-11-17 | Cavs -6 v. Mavs | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
After a 2-0 start to the season, things have gone sour for the Cavaliers as they have dropped seven of their last 10 games including horrible losses to Brooklyn, New York and Atlanta. They are coming off a loss to Houston on Thursday and look to right the ship against an opponent they should have no trouble with. The defense has been a real issue, but Dallas is a horrible offensive team as it is shooting just 42.4 percent from the floor which is second worst in the NBA. Dallas is coming off just its second win of the season as it pulled a big upset in Washington on Tuesday. Any positive momentum is lost because of the extended time off and prior to that, the Mavericks had dropped six straight games. They put up 113 points against the Wizards and the other two times they scored 110 or more points, they followed those up by scoring 88 and 89 points next time out. Going back, the Mavericks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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11-10-17 | Heat v. Jazz -3 | Top | 84-74 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
We lost with Utah on Tuesday as it fell at home against the Sixers but now it has a better matchup with a worst team and a line that is nearly half of what it was against Philadelphia. The Jazz are now 5-2 at home and had their four-game streak of scoring 100 or more points snapped and will be out to halt their three-game losing streak. They are coming off a dreadful shooting performance as they shot just 30.3 percent from the floor including going 9-39 from long range as they were forcing unneeded shots since they trailed pretty much the entire game. Miami is coming off a win over Phoenix, which is struggling bad right now, to move to 2-2 on this current roadtrip and 2-3 on the highway overall. The Heats have lost three straight games following a win and has won back-to-back games only once all season and both of those were at home against a pair of below-average Eastern Conference teams. Miami is just 1-5 on the season against top 16 teams and going back, the Heat are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for the Jazz to snap their skid tonight. 10* (512) Utah Jazz |
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11-09-17 | Thunder -1 v. Nuggets | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Even though it is early in the season, this is a huge game for Oklahoma City which has lost six of its first 10 games with its revamped roster that is supposed to challenge Golden St. in the Western Conference. The Thunder have lost their last three games including a loss at Sacramento in their last game which gave the Kings just their second win of the season. The offense has stalled as they have averaged only 93 ppg during the three-game skid while shooting just 39.7 percent and while the poor play is no excuse, they have faced some tough defenses and slow paces but that changes tonight. Denver is off to a 3-1 start on this current homestand and while a win over Toronto was a good one, that is the only good one on the entire season. The Nuggets have played a schedule that is ranked No. 28 in the NBA and the other five wins have come against Brooklyn twice, Miami, Atlanta and Sacramento, all of which have losing record. Granted, so do the Thunder but we all know the talent is there and a turnaround will happen, and this is the starting point. The Nuggets have failed to cover their last four games against teams with a losing record and are just 1-4 ATS this season following a win. 10* (709) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Knicks last night and unfortunately, ran into a team that would end up shooting 60 percent from the floor which enabled them to come back from a 15-point deficit. It was the second straight game that the Knicks rallied from a late double-digit deficit as they were down by 19 points against the Pacers on Sunday and this magic is unlikely to continue. New York played five straight home games and has not gone on the road since October 29 and now it must do so playing on no rest. This is the first time the Knicks are playing a back-to-back going from home to the road and going back, the Knicks have lost 12 of their last 16 games when playing with no rest. Orlando has been off since Saturday where it was blown out at home against Boston which was its second straight blowout loss at Amway Center. The Magic opened the season 6-2 including a 3-0 record at home so we feel the last two games have been an aberration more than the norm. the offense was rolling with eight straight 100-point games before putting up just 83 and 88 points the last two games but now faces a below average defense. Orlando players have been stating how big of a game this is as after this, the Magic head out west for a four-game roadtrip while eight of their next 10 games are on the road. The Knicks have failed to cover both road games against winning teams this season while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The Sixers have turned their season around with four straight wins after a 1-4 start and this is no doubt a team on the rise. Ben Simmons is a future star in this league as he is averaging close to a triple double while Joel Embiid is a horse underneath. Embiid will be out tonight as he is resting, and this is just the second game he has missed this season, the first resulting in a 34-poinbt loss at Toronto. In addition to the four straight wins, the Sixers have covered their last six games including all three on the road that were also straight up victories. It has been an average start to the season for Utah as it is 5-5 and the venue has played an important role as the home team is 9-1 in its 10 games. The Jazz have dropped two straight games including a 27-point loss in their last game at Houston and prior to that, it was a nine-point home loss against Toronto. The offensive cohesion has been an issue as point guard Ricky Rubio is still trying to get the chemistry going but it has been progressing of late as they have scored 100 or more points in four straight games. Now Utah faces a Sixers team that is allowing opposing teams to average 108.6 ppg so the Jazz can keep the offense rolling and going back, they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (714) Utah Jazz |
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11-07-17 | Hornets +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Knicks have been one of the big surprises in the NBA this season as they are off to a 5-4 start with wins in five of their last six games after opening 0-3. We are not sure of this team yet as it has been a one man show during this stretch as Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 32.7 ppg during this recent six-game stretch. Enes Kanter has been a good addition at center but after that, it is a bunch of role players with the majority that are having trouble shooting the ball. This is only the third time New York has been favored this season with the first two coming against Brooklyn and Phoenix and Charlotte is much better than those two teams. The Hornets have lost two straight games after a three-game winning streak and the two recent losses came against Minnesota and San Antonio. They are just 1-4 on the road but the other two losses came at Detroit which was playing its first game in its new downtown arena and the other came at Milwaukee. Charlotte has played the No. 6 ranked schedule in the NBA with eight of 10 games coming against top 16 teams, where the Knicks are not. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Knicks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (709) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans v. Pacers -1 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Indiana was riding high with a three-game winning including a win at Cleveland but failed to keep the momentum going as it lost its next two games in Philadelphia and New York. Both of those teams have been playing well though but are definitely overachieving on a season level so now the Pacers need to take care of business at home before they hit the road for two more games. Indiana is 3-1 at home and it has gotten an offensive boost from Victor Oladipo and has Myles Turner back who missed seven games with a neck injury. New Orleans has won two straight games, both coming on the road at Dallas and Chicago which are two of the three worst teams in the league. The Pelicans are 5-5 overall and while they also possess a win over Cleveland, the four other wins have come against teams that will not be tasting the playoffs this season. With the recent opposite runs and the Western Conference vs. the Eastern Conference, we are catching a short number with Indiana. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record while the Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. While it is too early in the season to talk about must win games, but this is a very important early season game for the Pacers. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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11-05-17 | Heat v. Clippers -5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
After a 4-0 start to the season, the Clippers have dropped three of their last four games and are a game behind the Warriors in the Pacific Division. They are coming off a 113-104 loss against Memphis yesterday afternoon and this will be their first back-to-back of the season. This is a big game after that loss as up next for the Clippers, eight of nine on the road, starting with a couple of Western Conference heavyweights in San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Miami fell to 3-5 on the season after a loss at Denver on Friday and this is a team that lacks cohesiveness. There already have been four lineups over these first eight games, with only one used for as many as three and that grouping 0-3. Friday night, it added up to a lack of continuity, the Heat closing with 22 turnovers, now with 19 or more in four of the past six games. Miami began this season by scoring 100 or more points in three of four games, but has since been held to 97 or fewer in three of four, losing three of those games. The Clippers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season against teams with losing records while Miami is 1-3 ATS against teams with winning records while going 0-3-1 ATS in its four games following a loss. 10* (704) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
We lost with the Spurs last night as San Antonio had the game in control as it built a 19-point lead, but the Warriors went on one of their patented runs to win by 20 points. San Antonio has now lost four straight games, and this is the first time the Spurs have lost four games in a row since February 2015. Last year, the Spurs didn't suffer their fourth loss until the 18th game so it is clear that they are not the typical Spurs team we are accustomed to. This is being taken into consideration with the line however as they are a short favorite tonight, and this is the lowest they have been favored by during their 10-game home winning streak against Charlotte. The Hornets meanwhile have won three straight games including a win over Milwaukee in their last game as the offense kept it going by scoring a season high 126 points. This sounds like bad news for San Antonio as its typical strong defense has been anything but during this losing skid, but we figure both revert to the mean. Charlotte has just one road win on the season and has covered only one time in its last six road games going back to last season. With the Spurs being as bad as they have been defensively over the last few games, a strong showing on the glass could go a long way in quelling the ills that have cost the Spurs on the defensive end over the last four games. 10* (714) San Antonio Spurs |
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11-02-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The Spurs opened the season 4-0 including a win at Miami to open a four-game roadtrip but it did not end well as they dropped the final three games including a pair of blowout losses against Orlando and Boston. The offense has been nowhere to be found as San Antonio has averaged just 91.7 ppg after putting up an average of 103 ppg during the four-game winning streak. The Spurs clearly miss Kawhi Leonard who has yet to play this season and since he went down in the Western Conference Finals last season, they are 4-7 without him counting the game he went down when they were outscored by 27 points. San Antonio will be very aggressive and want nothing more than to avenge that four-game sweep last May. Golden St. is coming off a win against the Clippers on Monday which was its best and most complete game of the season. Statistically, the Warriors remain the highest-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 121 ppg, six points better than the past two seasons. However, opponents are averaging 114.1 ppg which is 10 points more than last season, so the Spurs can get out of that offensive funk. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up after a poor start in San Antonio as he is averaging 23.6 ppg and 8.4 rpg while shooting almost 50 percent from the floor. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS this season after a win and have just one cover against a team with a winning record. 10* (502) San Antonio Spurs |
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11-01-17 | Kings +13 v. Celtics | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Kings fell flat last night as they lost in Indiana by 18 points in a game they never led and trailed by as many as 28. The game itself should have been closer as Sacramento and Indiana shot nearly identical from the floor but the Kings were just 2-14 from long range while the Pacers were 12-29 so that was clearly the difference. The Kings look to bounce back in a hurry as this will be their second back-to-back and while they lost the second game the first time around, that followed a win the previous night. Sacramento is on a 0-5 ATS run which is one streak to fade and the Celtics are on a perfect 5-0 ATS which gives us another significant streak to go against. Boston has won all five of those games outright after a 0-2 and this includes an impressive home win over San Antonio in its last game and there is a game at Oklahoma City on deck which puts them in a tough spot that will be difficult to get up for. This has been a problem in the past as the Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. the new look Celtics seem to be coming together now but are now laying their biggest number of the season, six and a half points higher than their previous high. 10* (709) Sacramento Kings |
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Milwaukee fell to 4-3 with a loss last night against Oklahoma City and all three of those losses have come against the top teams in the league with the other two coming against Boston and Cleveland. The Bucks have won both road games this year and while the win over Atlanta means little, a win over the Celtics was solid. Milwaukee won the first meeting at home by nine points as a seven-point favorite and now it is getting 3.5 points as of Monday morning which is a 10.5-point swing which is too much as the typical line swing based on venue switch is six points. Charlotte has won and covered two straight games to make it a similar 4-3 record overall. The Hornets have been one of the most inconsistent offensive teams as they have averaged 92.3 ppg in three losses while averaging 110.8 ppg in their four wins. The Bucks defense has not been great but has shown flashes and after a bad effort last night, the Milwaukee defense goes after it tonight. Going back, the Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games playing with no rest while the Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (703) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-01-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland has had some head scratching losses over the years since LeBron James returned but the current run the Cavaliers are on is the worst we have witnessed. They have lost three straight games against three teams that were not even close to making the playoffs last season. A pair of road losses at Brooklyn and New Orleans was bad enough but coming home and losing to the Knicks by 19 points was inexcusable. With two days off to stew over this run, Cleveland will be out to make up for it all in one game. The Pacers won last night as we went against them as they picked up their second straight win to move over .500 for the first time since a season opening win over Brooklyn. This is already the third back-to-back for Indiana which is a significant amount as the season started just two weeks ago and the Pacers lost the second game of the first two. The schedule does them no favors here as they are catching the Cavaliers at the exact wrong time. Since a win and cover at Milwaukee, the Cavaliers have dropped five straight against the number and that is a streak we go against here as they can run this one up as much as they want. 10* (708) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-31-17 | Kings +5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Indiana finds itself in a very difficult spot on Tuesday as a home win over San Antonio on Sunday pushed its record to 3-3 including 2-1 at home. That victory puts the Pacers in a prime letdown situation after beating one of the best teams in the NBA but on top of that, this is the first game of a back-to-back as they travel to Cleveland tomorrow night. Indiana is averaging over 111 ppg but that average is skewed by 130-point and 140-point games against Minnesota and Brooklyn respectively, two of the faster paced teams in the NBA. The Pacers will be slowed down tonight as Sacramento is ranked No. 26 in pace and the Kings want nothing to do with a shootout. They have lost four straight games after a 1-1 start and the losses have been ugly not to sugarcoat it. Sacramento lost badly to Denver but that was after its win, lost at Phoenix but that was the Suns first game with their new coach and lost to New Orleans where DeMarcus Cousins returned and went off. The most recent loss came at home on Sunday as the Kings never led and fell behind by as many as 37 points, so we can expect an all-out effort tonight. The Kings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one day of rest while the Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Western Conference. 10* (501) Sacramento Kings |
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10-30-17 | 76ers v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is the second meeting of the season between Houston and Philadelphia with the Rockets taking the first meeting. They failed to cover for us however as they won by a point, but we will be backing them again as they head home in a very similar situation. Houston is coming off a loss at Memphis on Saturday which was its second loss of the season, both coming against the Grizzlies. While the Rockets were great after a loss last season, they were untouchable coming off a loss when scoring 103 or fewer points as they followed those games up with a perfect 9-0 record, so they have taken 10 straight in this scenario and are coming off an 89-point effort against Memphis. Philadelphia is coming off a win at Dallas on Saturday by a bucket which was its second win of the season. Both victories have come on the road, but both have come against teams that will likely not be in the playoffs at the end of the season, so they step up in competition here. We are getting exceptional value with this number as Houston went into Philadelphia last week as a three-point favorite and now it is favored by just three points more as it heads home. Look for another Rockets victory following a loss and one that is more lopsided than the first one. 10* (712) Houston Rockets |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Orlando is off to a great start this season as it is 4-1 and one of the biggest surprises in the NBA. We had the Magic on Friday against the Spurs as they won outright by 27 points and because of the early season success, they should no longer be sneaking up on anyone. They are 1-1 on the road with an upset win at Cleveland being the lone victory but a loss against Brooklyn negates that. This is the start of a three-game roadtrip for Orlando with the opening game always a difficult one in this league. Going back, the Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. It has been an up and down start for Charlotte as it is 2-3 following a loss against Houston on Friday which was its first home loss of the season. The Hornets were underdogs there, so it was not a surprising defeat and they followed up their first two losses with victories in their next game which puts them in another ideal spot tonight. The Hornets will be getting Cody Zeller back tonight which does not seem like a big deal, but he is a strength on defense as without him in the lineup, they have allowed 100 or more points in three of their five games. This is big considering that Charlotte is 0-3 when giving up 100 or more points while going 2-0 when limiting the opposition to 99 or fewer. 10* (506) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-28-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The first two games of the season did not go as Boston planned as a season ending injury to Gordon Hayward led to a loss in Cleveland which was followed up by a loss at home against Milwaukee the next night. The Celtics are now back to business as usual with three straight wins including an impressive victory on the road against the Bucks last time out. They have done it with defense, yes even Kyrie Irving, as they have allowed just 90 ppg over their three-game winning streak with opponents shooting just 41.7 percent over that stretch. Even with Hayward gone, this is a team that can take the Eastern Conference as we saw in their last game. Miami is 2-2 following a home loss to San Antonio in its last game and it will be without its best player once again as Hassan Whiteside, who opened the season with a 26-22 double-double, will miss his fourth straight game. The two victories have come against Indiana and Atlanta, both of which are rebuilding and as long as the focus is there, the Celtics have no business losing to a team like this. The line is short enough where a win should be a cover and going back, Boston has covered six straight road games while Miami is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home games. 10* (705) Boston Celtics |
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10-27-17 | Spurs v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 87-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
San Antonio is a half-point away from being a perfect 4-0 against the number which would match its straight up record that has been put together without the services of Kawhi Leonard. It shows how good this organization is which comes down to coaching but because the Spurs are not at full strength, they are vulnerable in an anti-public situation such as this. San Antonio is coming off a win over Miami on Wednesday, but the Heat were shorthanded while its other road win came against the depleted Bulls that mustered a mere 77 points. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up huge in the absence of Leonard but the other four starters consisting of Danny Green, Dejounte Murray, Pau Gasol and Kyle Anderson is shockingly overachieving. Orlando is off to a 3-1 start and while a split with Brooklyn does not look very good, wins over Cleveland and Miami (with Hassan Whiteside) look exceptional. The Magic are 3-1 for the first time since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, when they won four of their first five games. They have two guys to lean on as Aaron Gordon is averaging 27.5 ppg and 11.5 rpg on 58.1 percent shooting while Nikola Vucevic is averaging 21.5 ppg and 10.3 rpg on 59.7 percent shooting and those two can neutralize the Spurs typical dominating frontcourt. Evan Fournier is averaging 21.5 ppg which makes Orlando just one of two NBA teams with three players averaging more than 20 ppg, the Warriors being the other one, so it is in pretty good company. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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10-26-17 | Celtics v. Bucks -4 | Top | 96-89 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Because of the injury to the Celtics Gordon Hayward, Milwaukee has turned into the team to most likely dethrone the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are off to a 3-1 start with the lone loss coming against the Cavaliers, so they might not be there yet, but this is clearly a contender. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a beast through four games, averaging 36.8 ppg and is an early season MVP candidate which was expected. This is a good scheduling spot as this is the fourth straight home game for Milwaukee spanning seven days so the rest and no travel are big advantages. Boston is 2-2 with losses coming against Cleveland and Milwaukee and the wins coming against Philadelphia and New York so the Celtics have not been able to keep pace with the elite teams. They have alternated home and road games all season so there has been travel involved between each game so facing a team that has stayed put for a week puts Boston in a tough spot here. This is a revenge game for the Celtics but we do not worry about road revenge and there is value in this number on the home team as the pointspread swing from the first meeting to now is just 5.5 points and the typical swing is 7.5-8 points with a venue change. Speaking of venue, this game is being played at the MECCA which is the old home of the Bucks as part of their 50th season celebration and it is going to be a great environment. 10* (704) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks will be our first and only double contrarian play of the season as the schedule will not see another matchup like this the remainder of the season. Memphis is a perfect 3-0 following impressive wins over Golden St. and Houston in their last two games and they head to Dallas in the first game of a home-and-home set that concludes tomorrow. Memphis is one of the bigger surprises in the early part of the season as it was projected for 38 wins but has looked like a championship contender although we are not putting them in that category just yet. The defense has carried the Grizzlies as they are allowing 39.6 percent shooting which is remarkable considering they had games against the Warriors and Rockets. They have covered all three games by double-digits. Dallas is at the other end of the contrarian record as it is off to a 0-3 start, both straight up and against the number. The Mavericks have been on the other side of games against the rockets and Warriors as they lost both, falling to Houston on the road and then losing to Golden St. two days after the Warriors lost to the Grizzlies so they were in a bad spot there. The Mavericks are in a youth movement as this is a team in transition and as is the case with a lot of teams like this, there is value to be had as people are already writing them off. Dallas has gone 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 125 or more points. 10* (514) Dallas Mavericks |
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10-25-17 | Rockets -3 v. 76ers | Top | 105-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Houston was one of the best teams in the NBA coming off a loss last season as it went 24-7 after a defeat and tonight presents our first opportunity to go after that angle this season. The Rockets opened the season 3-0 including an impressive season opening win over Golden St. but it lost against Memphis on Monday and now hits the road again for the start of a three-game roadtrip. The offense was stymied against the Grizzlies as they were held to 90 points on 41.6 percent shooting including 23.7 percent from long range where they made only nine three-pointers. While the rockets were great after a loss last season, they were untouchable coming off a loss when scoring 103 or fewer points as they followed those games up with a perfect 9-0 record. As Houston was coming off its first loss of the season, the Sixers were coming off their first win of the season following a 0-3 start. They went to Detroit and defeated the Pistons by 11 points, holding the Pistons to 38.8 percent shooting. It is doubtful the defense was that good however as Philadelphia allowed 116.7 in those first two games, so we can chalk it up to a bad shooting night for the Pistons. The Sixers committed 21 turnovers, so it was far from a clean win and while the season is young, the Sixers are averaging 18.5 tpg which is third highest in the league. The Sixers have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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10-25-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets +2 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Of the ten games on the Wednesday schedule, there are eight road favorites and this one is the most surprising of the bunch, so we will go against the false favorite. Charlotte opened the season with a loss at Detroit but that was not a good spot as the Pistons were opening their new downtown arena and following that up with a win at home over Atlanta in a blowout. The Hornets lost in their last game at Milwaukee on Monday as they melted down in the second half, but it was the ineptness from the free throw line that really did them in. they attempted 36 shots from the stripe, 20 more than the Bucks, and made only 21 of those for a 58.3 percent clip. Denver is also off to a 1-2 start following a split in its two-game homestand. The Nuggets lost at Utah by 10 points in their only road game in their season opener and they have been a notoriously bad road team recently. After being one of the fastest paced teams in the league last season, ranking No. 8 in possessions per game, Denver has slowed it down this season as it is ranked No. 28 through three games. Clearly, there is no identity on which way this team wants to play with the addition of Paul Millsap but once they do figure that out, they will be a force on both sides. In the meantime, we will take advantage of them being overvalued. Charlotte was a home underdog five times last season (Cleveland, Golden St., Houston, Utah and San Antonio). Denver is not in that group. 10* (506) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic -5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our Tuesday NBA Supreme Annihilator. Two of the worst teams in the NBA last season are off to 2-1 starts and square off for the second time this season. Brooklyn won on Sunday to improve to 2-1 which was its second straight home win following a road loss against Indiana to open the season. The Nets may be slightly improved this season but winning on the road is going to be just as tough after winning a total of seven games on the highway last season. This is the first time the Nets have had a winning record in almost three years but one concern here is that they are back home tomorrow hosting the Cavaliers and a young team can be distracted to that. Orlando is also off to a 2-1 start following a very impressive win at Cleveland on Saturday. The Magic are 1-0 at home with the win coming against Miami so the victories have been better quality than the Nets and the schedule strength proves that with a 15-spot differential. Orlando gets Aaron Gordon back tonight after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. The Magic will be out to avenge that loss to the Nets from last week as they played good enough to win, outshooting Brooklyn from the floor and from long range but the Nets held a 25-15 edge from the free throw line. 10* (702) Orlando Magic |
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10-23-17 | 76ers +4 v. Pistons | Top | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Sixers are coming off an awful game against Toronto on Saturday as they lost by 34 points to fall to 0-3 on the season. Philadelphia was a sleeper by some to make a playoff run and while it may not be looking that was now, it faced three of top teams in the Eastern Conference so now it takes a step down in competition. Philadelphia center Joel Embiid (left knee rehabilitation) did not play Saturday as he continued to rest in the second half of back-to-back games but will be in the lineup tonight to round out a very balanced offense of six players averaging between 10.0 and 15.7 ppg. Going back, the Sixers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Detroit is off to a 2-1 start with wins over Charlotte and New York and a loss at Washington. The Pistons have covered all three games thus far and that is a streak the public is backing here as they are one of two teams to start the season 3-0 against the number. They rallied from a 21-point deficit on Saturday to beat the lowly Knicks in New York but the Sixers are in a solid spot here as they catch the Pistons in a feasible letdown spot and lookahead game to Minnesota. 10* (501) Philadelphia 76ers |
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10-22-17 | Hawks v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
We won with the Nets on Friday and we will be backing them again on Sunday in another rare role of favorites. While saying this team may be on the rose is an overstatement, they have improved over the last couple seasons as the chemistry has come together and the addition of D'Angelo Russell is already proving to pay off. Excluding Jeremy Lin who is out for the season, Brooklyn has seven players averaging double0digits in scoring and while that is likely unsustainable throughout the season, the depth is a big strength for the Nets which is a big edge when playing as fast as they do. The same cannot be said for the Hawks as they have a pure scorer in Dennis Schroder and that is about it as they are rebuilding after 10 straight playoff seasons which pretty much got them nowhere. Losing Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha is hard to make up and it showed Friday as after a big start, Atlanta ran out of gas against the Hornets, scoring only 35 second half points. While playing up tempo is fun for some players, Atlanta cannot keep up as the Nets are accustomed to it and will take advantage. Going back to last season, the Nets are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Hawks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. 10* (702) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | Top | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Portland is off to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over Phoenix and Indiana as its accumulated lead total through the two games is 91 points, but we cannot take these victories too serious. Both the Suns and Pacers are in rebuild mode and now the Blazers take on their first real opponent and one that is looking for some redemption. The Bucks opened their season with a win over the Celtics but last night, they were clobbered at home against Cleveland which gave a sign that they are not close to where they want to be. Milwaukee caught Cleveland at a bad time as the Cavaliers shot 54.3 percent from the floor while going a perfect 17-17 from the free throw line. The Bucks are a better team than what was on display last night and while they still shot a solid 46.3 percent from the floor, they could not get the pace that they wanted as they had only 82 shots, but they will be able to pick up the tempo tonight. The Rockets are the only other team that is 2-0 on the road and winning three straight road games to start the season is not easy in this league, especially for a non-elite team. Milwaukee covered seven of its last eight games last season in the second game of a back-to-back and looks to rebound tonight in the second game of a four-game homestand. 10* (516) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The new-look Timberwolves did not get off to a good start but facing the Spurs in their season opener can do that to a lot of teams. Minnesota lost by eight points in a very slow-paced game and Jimmy Butler had a poor debut as he scored only 12 points in 35 minutes but playing his first game at home in Minnesota will add to his bounce back effort. He scored 15 or fewer points 11 times last season and averaged 26.5 ppg in the 11 follow up games. The Timberwolves are projected to have a top-level offense and they will show that off here. The Jazz held the Nuggets to 96 points but Denver still shot 46.8 percent from the floor as Utah played at a snail's pace which is a lot easier to do at home than it is on the road. Utah had a strong defense last season but the loss of Gordon Hayward and George Hill severely hurts the defense which is projected to be a below average No. 22 in defense. Ricky Rubio had an average debut and while he will be pretty fired up in his return to Minnesota, that will not be enough. After 51 wins last season, Utah is projected for just 40.5 wins this season which shows how much of a drop is expected. 10* (714) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-20-17 | Magic v. Nets -2 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off a home win over Miami in its season opener as it won by seven points as a 3.5-point underdog. The Magic played solid defense as it held Miami to 39.3 percent shooting when taking away the 11-18 performance from Hassan Whiteside and the defense will be the cornerstone of the team this season but that does not necessarily mean it is a very good defense. The Magic have turned the front office and roster over once again and the matchup tonight will test them and the defense. Brooklyn lost at Indiana in its opener as the 131 points scored was not enough as the Nets will once again be at the top of the league in pace. That means plenty of points but also means plenty of points allowed and part of their problem on Wednesday was turnovers as they gave it away 20 times which they could not recover from. D’Angelo Russell had a strong debut and is a great addition to build around. The loss of Jeremy Lin is going to hurt the depth but we like the matchup here as Brooklyn succeeded last season in this scenario as it went 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Look for a big rebound tonight. 10* (712) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-20-17 | Hawks v. Hornets -6 | Top | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Hawks are expected to have a rough season as they came in dead last in some preseason power rankings. It is a total rebuild in Atlanta as its 10-year playoff run will likely come to an end this season as it no longer has the services of Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha. The Hawks are going in a different direction, attempting to rebuild with a young team while keeping their cap manageable and holding onto their No. 1 picks. So, what did they do Wednesday? They went on the road and defeated the Mavericks, another team that is close to doing a full rebuild but the challenge will be tougher tonight. Charlotte hit the road as well for its season opener but the results were not as good as it lost in Detroit by 12 points. The Hornets shot horrible, grabbed just three offensive rebounds and committed 17 turnovers which all led to getting outshot 96-73 and no team is going to win many games when getting outshot by 23. They head home where they look to regroup and the revenge narrative is in play tonight with Howard who had issues with Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer and he has a chance to go off. The home team has covered 10 of the last 13 meetings. 10* (704) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-19-17 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The Lakers were a pleasant surprise last season, going 26-56 and while that may look horrendous, after winning 17 and 21 games the previous two seasons, last year was a big move forward. One of the youngest rosters in the NBA and plenty of cap space after this season, the future is bright in Los Angeles and there could very well be another positive move this season if the youngsters can gel. We did not get to see much of rookie Lonzo Ball in the preseason because of a bum ankle but he is the playmaker that will be comfortable right away. The Lakers upgraded at center with Brook Lopez while Julius Randle, third full season, and Brandon Ingram, second full season, will both continue to improve. The Clippers almost mailed it in this season as the loss of Chris Paul to Houston was thought to start a domino effect of stars leaving but Blake Griffin resigned and they signed Danilo Gallinari and along with DeAndre Jordan, they have one of the top frontcourts in the league. The backcourt is now an issue with the Paul departure and Los Angeles has taken a small step back overall as opposed to many other teams taking a step forward. The Clippers have dominated this series over the last few years but a new season brings new optimism for the Lakers and this line tells us a lot as the last three meetings, the Lakers were double-digit underdogs so the gap is closing. 10* (506) Los Angeles Lakers |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Houston came through for us last night as the Rockets rallied from a 17-point deficit to defeat the Warriors outright with a 122-121 victory. The hype for that game was huge obviously and Houston is now set to play its first back-to-back of the season. This is always a positive situation to go against and even more so when a team is coming off a big win which is the case for the Rockets who could show up in letdown mode. Sacramento enters another season of more questions than answers after it cleared house toward the end of last season. The Kings finished 8-17 after trading DeMarcus Cousins and they also got rid of Rudy Gay and Darren Collison which were their three top scorers accounting for nearly 50 ppg. While it may seem grim, Sacramento had an outstanding draft as it got De'Aaron Fox, Justin Jackson and Harry Giles in the first round and Frank Mason III in the second round so the future looks extremely bright. Of course, we are concerned about tonight and with so many new faces, chemistry heads to the forefront but all indications are that the teams is gelling well together. The Kings will rely on the knowledge of their veterans and hope the youngsters learn quickly, especially when it comes to facing James Harden and Chris Paul although Paul tweaked an ankle last night so he could be limited. Houston swept this series last year as it won all four games but those were much different scenarios. Three of the victories over the Kings came after losses in the Rockets previous game while the fourth came after a game against Brooklyn. 10* (720) Sacramento Kings |
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10-18-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Prior to opening tip last night, the Celtics were 7.5-point favorites when this line opened and because of everything that went down Tuesday night, the line dropped to -5.5 and is down even more as of this morning. Boston suffered a serious blow with the devastating injury to Gordon Hayward and while it tried to make a run behind its fallen teammate, the Celtics fell just short against the Cavaliers in a highly anticipated game to open the season. Boston has lost five of its last six games against the Cavaliers dating back to the NBA playoffs last season and it nearly fought back from an 18-point deficit and an emotional rollercoaster but we can expect a full effort tonight. This is the home opener for the Celtics and this is a game they will be out to win for Hayward, especially after falling just short last night. The Bucks enter the new season with high expectations after making the playoffs last year after a 42-40 campaign. It was an impressive season considering the injuries Milwaukee sustained as the Bucks were without Khris Middleton for 53 games to start the season and Jabari Parker for 31 games to end the season with neither being on the floor together. Parker remains out for another few months and while they are a sleeper in the Eastern Conference with their talent to make a run, they are in a difficult spot tonight with everything that happened on Tuesday. Boston could shut down for this game but we are expecting the exact opposite and we have the value in the line to go with it. 10* (710) Boston Celtics |
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10-17-17 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Golden St. and we know what that means. The Warriors will be lowering their 2016-17 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 16 NBA Champions (Cleveland, Golden St., San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 51-81 ATS mark (38.6 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for seven of the last 11 seasons. Golden St. became the first "Super Team" in the NBA and now there are others that will try and catch up including the Rockets who added Chris Paul to form arguably the best backcourt in the league. But it was the addition of PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute that could pay the biggest dividends as they upgrade the perimeter defense. The Rockets also matchup particularly well with Golden St. with the revamped roster so an upset if not out of the question. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The vast majority of NBA followers will be on Golden St. to win tonight and wrap up this series against Cleveland after being unable to produce the sweep on Friday in Game Four. While the Warriors are in good shape to win at home and capture their second championship in three years, we will be sticking with Cleveland and the points once again as the venue shift has once again provided and overadjusted number. While Golden St. is +25 in point differential in this series, the Cavaliers have arguably been better in this series for two and a half of the four games. In Game Two, the Warriors used a 13-2 run to help build a 102-88 lead by the end of the third quarter to break open a close game, in Game Three, they used an 11-0 run to end the game and win by five points and in Game Four, Golden St. never led. The Cavaliers at +3 with LeBron James on the court and -22 with him on the sidelines so it is pretty clear he is the difference maker and he will again have to step up and carry the Cavaliers but it is also important to get help from others. Winning three more games may seem unlikely for Cleveland but the pressure has shifted to Golden St. as it wants no part of going back to Cleveland for Game Six as they have not forgotten what happened last season. The Cavaliers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win while the Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
We were on Cleveland in Game Three and the Cavaliers were ready to get back into the series until getting outscored 11-0 to end the game and are now on the brink of elimination. Winning four straight games will take a major miracle but it is unlikely the Cavaliers will go down without a fight. Pride is on the line right now and LeBron James does not want to get swept for a second time in his career in the NBA Finals, the first coming in 2007 against the Spurs. While winning this game outright may not happen, we are more concerned about the number as Cleveland is getting three points more than it was two nights ago and that is a massive adjustment from one game to the next, especially in a game that could have gone either way on Wednesday. Over the last 32 years, teams up 3-0 in a playoff series have gone 60-24 in Game Four to close out the series and Golden St. looks to be in good shape to add to that. However, the Cavaliers are getting one of the biggest home spreads with James on the roster and that value has to be taken. The Warriors will be out to make history by going 16-0 in the postseason and that alone should provide Cleveland with the motivation needed to try and extend this series even though the Warriors are at -10,000 to win the NBA Championship. As we further look at value, Cleveland is getting just one point fewer than it was getting in Game One on the road. 10* (708) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Golden St. has rolled through the first two games of this series, winning Game One and Game Two by 22 and 19 points respectively. Going back to the regular season, the Warriors have won three straight with the other victory coming by 35 points. However, all of these game took place at Golden St. and going back to last postseason, Cleveland has won three of the last four meetings at home. The Cavaliers are now in do-or-die mode as a loss here essentially ends the series while a victory gets them back in it at least for one more game. This Golden St. team is on a roll as it has gone 14-0 in the postseason and going back to March 14, the Warriors are an incredible 29-1 over their last 30 games and could feasibly undefeated if not for one bad fourth quarter against Utah in the second to last game of the regular season. The Cavaliers are in a very familiar situation as they will try and recreate their Game Three performance from last year's Finals, when they rebounded at home with a resounding 30-point win to kickstart their comeback. The Cavaliers are playing at a quicker pace than LeBron James has ever played before. James has played with an average pace of 90.6 possessions per game but in the Finals, they are averaging 105.5 possessions per game so there has been talk of slowing things down and that is one way the offense can get into synch to solve the Warriors tough defense. Going against Golden St. is not easy but Cleveland will have the energy edge tonight and that can be enough to get them back into the series. 10* (706) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 0 m | Show |
Game One of the NBA Finals played out just as expected as the Warriors seized control of the game and went on to roll by 22 points. Golden St. was not particularly good in any area on offense as it shot just 42.5 percent from the floor including 36.4 percent from long range while going just 11-16 from the free throw line. However, the Warriors committed only four turnovers while putting up 31 assists which is an unheard of ratio while on the other side, Cleveland has only 15 assists compared to 20 turnovers as the offense clearly struggled. While we not see a reversal of this from both sides on Sunday, we will see things come back to normal which mean a much more competitive game and as stated in the Game One analysis, this is the game the Warriors can steal. The Cavaliers bench was 6-25 from the field so the fact that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving shot a combined 19-44 from the floor was negated by that along with a bad night from Kevin Love. We are also seeing a drastic line shift from Game One as the line has risen by a point and a half in a lot of places and could possibly go up more by game time. This is where we play the bounce angle and take advantage of the line swing in a game that Cleveland will not only be more competitive in but also be in the mix for an outright win. 10* (703) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
After losing in the NBA Finals last season after a 3-1 lead and then blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead on Christmas Day, the Warriors got their revenge against Cleveland on January 26 as they rolled by 35 points. Tonight is a different kind of revenge however as Golden St. wants to avenge those Finals losses as they have dropped three straight going into tonight and they know how important Game One of a series is. While going on a perfect 12-0 record in this postseason, the Warriors racked up the postseasons highest average in points (118.3), assists (27.8) and steals (9.2) per game. Defensively, Cleveland played much better in the postseason than in the regular season but this is a much different test. In 2016, the Cavaliers focused on denying Stephen Curry as much as possible, opting instead to give Harrison Barnes open looks. While that strategy largely worked, the addition of Kevin Durant will complicate the Cavaliers ability to influence the game defensively. Golden St. was overpriced the majority of the season and overall, it is 24-35 ATS as a double-digit favorite but a much more dominating 22-9 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Cleveland no doubt has the ability to steal a game in Golden St. but the chances will be greater on Sunday in Game Two as the Warriors will have too much on their side in this opener as they pull away to take an early series lead. 10* (702) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +10.5 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Boston suffered a tough loss in Game Four as it blew a 16-point lead to fall down 3-1 in this series and at this point, many are saying it is over. While that is likely the case, we are backing the Celtics for a third straight game as they have not thrown in the towel. More than 200 teams have faced the 3-1 deficit in a seven-game series and only 11 of those teams beat the odds and won the series in seven games but we are again more concerned about the pointspread involved. The Cavaliers were overvalued at home as they failed to cover both games and now they are even more overvalued. Based on the venue switch, they should go from a 15-point favorite to a 7-point or 8-point favorite but are laying doubles on the road for the first time ever in the postseason and this is all because of the absence of Isaiah Thomas. So as far as the spread goes, it is clearly on our side so the big factor is that we have to have Boston show up. Had it not been for Kyrie Irving's heroics in Game Four, a career playoff-high 42 points and 19 of the Cavaliers' final 21 points of the third quarter, the Celtics may indeed have evened the series. Nonetheless, they returned home with confidence knowing they can play with the Cavaliers even without their best player. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (508) Boston Celtics |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Celtics came through two nights ago as they rallied from a 21-point second half deficit to pull off the improbable win and make this a series, for at least just a little bit. While Boston was probably fortunate to win Game Three, the fact they came back was impressive and showed the fight that they have. As stated in the Game Three analysis, the Celtics are arguably a better team right now without Isaiah Thomas since he was not healthy to begin with and now there is better flow on offense but the big advantage is on the other side as defensively, the absence of Thomas is huge for Boston as he is one of the worst defenders in basketball so now the Celtics will also have healthy bodies to try and slow down the Cavaliers potent offense. Which they did to some extent on Sunday as LeBron James had one of his worst playoff games ever but he will no doubt bounce back. That will take away from Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love but shifting points around does nothing for the Cavaliers. Basically, this line is too big once again as Boston is now 2-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog, both covers coming against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games while the Celtics are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (505) Boston Celtics |
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05-22-17 | Warriors -12 v. Spurs | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
With the series on the line, we saw the Celtics play with some pride in the second half and came back to win and for the Spurs, it is win or go home tonight. While the Celtics victory can give the Spurs some hope, that win should give the Warriors the extra incentive knowing that upsets are possible and even though they would head home for Game Five, they do not want a Game Five. Cleveland has to play at least two more games which means their maximum time off before the Finals would be six days off but a Golden St. win tonight would mean 10 days off and that is definitely a goal at this point. The Warriors are the superior team here by mile with Kawhi Leonard out as they have outscored San Antonio 314-241 after he went down in Game One. Golden St. had a rough stretch in early March but since a 2-4 skid, it has gone 26-1 over its last 27 games so it is clearly peaking at the right time. The Spurs look deflated right now and after starting strong in Game three, they gave it back in the second quarter and were not able to come back. A slow start tonight is more than likely and the Warriors will be able to pull away and end this series after four games. Laying doubles on the road is never easy but this situation justifies it. Golden St. has covered 10 of its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (725) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +17 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Since the start of the second round of the NBA playoffs when the elite teams typically advance, there have been 26 games played. 22 of those have been decided by double-digits including all five games in the Conference Finals. It has been the most disappointing postseason possibly ever and everyone is just waiting for the Cleveland Golden St. rematch to take place which is inevitable at this point. While Boston has been blown out in both games in this series and now have to deal with no Isaiah Thomas, do not count this team out. Whether or not the Celtics can win is not of importance here but the 16-17 points we are getting as of Sunday morning is of the utmost importance. The loss of Thomas is big obviously but this can be turned into a positive. He has not been completely healthy and because the offense is built around him, it has hurt the team as a whole. Now with healthy players running the offense, there is more flow upcoming and Cleveland will have a difficult time in preparation. Defensively, the absence of Thomas is a huge advatnage for Boston as he is one of the worst defenders in basketball so now the Celtics will also have healthy bodies to try and slow down the Cavaliers potent offense. Cleveland is rolling but this is a perfect opportunity for the Celtics to show up and make this one much more competitive than the first two games. 10* (503) Boston Celtics |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Warriors have steamrolled through the postseason winning all 10 games and all but three have gone over the total including both games in this series. We will take the bounce angle route here and take the under as the total has risen by 3-4 points depending on the outlet so we are getting some excellent value based on the recent results. The Spurs have gone over the total in all but three of their 14 playoff games so the over will be another popular play based on these results as well. The only way San Antonio can get back into this series is playing better defense and we have seen that defense play strong on numerous occasions in the postseason. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich accused his team of basically quitting in Game Two with the blame going on the defense as they allowed the Warriors to shoot 56.2 percent from the floor including Golden St. to shoot 18-37 from long range. The Warriors are not as strong offensively on the road and if Kawhi Leonard can get back into the lineup, it will certainly be a big boost to the defense. The Under is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (723) Golden St. Warriors/(724) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland steamrolled trough Boston on Wednesday as the long layoff was no issue. The Cavaliers never trailed, led by as many as 28 points and have seemed to prove they are the true top seed in the Eastern Conference. That Game One win gave them home court advantage in this series and Boston knows this is a must win game as heading to Cleveland down 2-0 is a deficit that will be impossible to overcome. This was the second straight time the Cavaliers have come to Boston and not let the Celtics even compete but we should see a different scenario tonight. Effort will be the big part in turning things around for Boston so while we are banking on that, we are also on the right side of the value as the Celtics have gone from -4 to +4 to +5.5 in the last three games played here against Cleveland. Obviously, Cleveland is in the zone right now as it has won all nine playoff games but it is up to the Celtics to get off to a better start. They missed 11 of their first 14 shots and trailed 22-9 with four minutes left in the first quarter and they shot just 35 percent overall in the first half. Playing with just a day of rest after beating Washington may have been an issue after all and while the same amount of rest is in play tonight, it is also the same for the other side. The Celtics may be a work in progress, but as they proved in the regular season, that does not mean they cannot be in win-now mode as well. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (502) Boston Celtics |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Cleveland had seven days off after taking care of Indiana and it has no issues with rust as the Cavaliers jumped out to a 30-18 lead after the first quarter. Now they are playing with 10 days of rest but the situation is obviously different as they have to open this series on the road. The Celtics are coming off a seven-game series which could affect their legs but the series was not a grueling one with six of the game decided by double-digits. Boston is 35-13 at home this season and this is just the fourth time all season it has been a home underdog and they are 15-9 ATS at home against winning teams. This line is tricky in that it is stating that the Cavaliers are nine points better than Washington based on the last two Boston lines and simply is not the case. Cleveland is severely overpriced here and while it is the best team in the Eastern Conference despite not having the No. 1 seed, this is too much of an adjustment. In the final regular season meeting in April, Boston was favored by four points so we are seeing an eight-point swing which only adds to the overadjustment argument. Game One is almost a must-win game for the Celtics. Boston is in a rhythm of playing games, and the Cavaliers have not played since May 7 and could be very vulnerable here in the opener. 10* (722) Boston Celtics |
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05-15-17 | Wizards +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The home team continues to hold serve in this matchup as the host is a perfect 10-0 this season but Boston did put an end to the 9-0 ATS run by the home team. The Celtics were in good position to end the series in Game Six but blew a late lead and the Wizards were able to force a Game Seven. Washington did outplay the Celtics on Friday but shooting was the issue as it went just 5-24 from long range while the Celtics made 11 long balls. The best player on the floor belongs to Washington as John Wall is averaging 26.3 ppg in this round while leading both teams with 10.2 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks. He has been the best player of the series and the Wizards will need him at his best tonight. Washington will also have the edge on the glass. If both teams are shooting poorly under the typical Game Seven pressure, then second-chance opportunities could be the difference-maker. The Wizards have outrebounded Boston by almost 6 rebounds per game (and on the offensive glass by 3.3 per game). For Washington to advance to its first Conference Finals since 1979, it will have to break the road team trend of not winning but it is more than capable. The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days of rest while the Celtics are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games playing on two days of rest. 10* (715) Washington Wizards |
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05-14-17 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
Golden St. has yet to be tested in the postseason as all eight wins have come by double-digits, half of which have come by 19 or more points. The Warriors were blown out by 29 points in the season opener in the only home matchup in this series so there may be a little extra incentive today but with this being the Western Conference Finals, there is plenty of incentive on the other side as well. San Antonio took care of Houston in six games with three of those wins coming by 25, 11 and 39 points so it has been pretty dominant as well. While the Spurs of old were more sluggish, grind it out teams, this version this season is a little different and actually matches up well with the Warriors. San Antonio was able to slow down the fast-paced Rockets and the Spurs defended the arc well as they contested 34 of 40 Rockets three-point attempts in Game Six and that is something they need to do here. The return of Kawhi Leonard is huge and the fact he is well rested is even bigger as he is the one player who can slow down Kevin Durant. He also gives San Antonio its best chances on offense where each possession counts. The Spurs have finished 24.6 percent of their playoff possessions in the final seven seconds of the shot clock, over twice as many as the Warriors (11.1 percent) and that is the one key factor in being able to hang around with Golden St. The Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on three or more days of rest and we may see more of that rust today. 10* (501) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-12-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Boston gained control of this series with a win in Game Five and this was the first game that the Celtics actually outplayed Washington from start to finish. The Wizards led by four points early but Boston blew the game wide open with a 16-0 run and never looked back. Washington has been the better team in this series despite being down. The Wizards jumped out to a 17-point lead in Game One but could not keep it going and in Game Two, they were leading almost the whole game and covering the entire game up until the last minute of overtime. The two games after that were all Washington as it held leads of 30 and 26 points in Game Three and Game Four respectively before finally being outplayed in Game Five. The home team has won all nine games this season with the host going a perfect 9-0 ATS in the series and it is safe to say that we are finally ready to see a close game as all nine games have been decided by at least eight points with the five games in this series all being decided by double-digits. While the obvious play is to take Washington, we are going against the trends and bounce angle similar to what we saw last night with the Spurs which kept the run going of Game Five winners taking the series 83 percent of the time. The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss while the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (711) Boston Celtics |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
We have stated since the start of this series that Washington is the better of the two teams and we have actually seen that in all four games despite this series being tied at two games apiece. The Wizards jumped out to a 17-point lead in Game One but could not keep it going and in Game Two, they were leading almost the whole game and covering the entire game up until the last minute of overtime. The final two games have been all Washington as it has held leads of 30 and 26 points in Game Three and Game Four respectively and they come in with a ton of momentum. This is being dubbed the most important game in franchise history in nearly 40 years for the Wizards and a big reason for that is they do not want to come back here for a Game Seven. The NBA has had 125 Game Sevens in playoff history and the home team is 101-25 (80 percent) in those games. While this Celtics team is different than the ones in years past, it is interesting to note Boston is 18-4 in Game Sevens at home. When a series is knotted at two, the next game takes on elevated significance. In NBA playoff history, the winner of Game Five has gone on to win the series 83 percent of the time, according to ESPN Stats and Info. We could go over important matchups but those have been covered and no need to again with the exception of noting Washington has outplayed Boston by a significant amount in the four games. 10* (519) Washington Wizards |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
These have been some of the worst NBA Playoffs in recent memory and while you expect blowouts to take place in the first round because of the disparity of the teams, the second round has been even worse. In Round One, 20 of the 48 games were decided by double-digits which is bad basketball in itself but in Round Two, 15 of the 16 games have been decided by at least 10 points. That seems to put San Antonio in the spot tonight but this blowout trend has to eventually start slowing down and our contrarian nature is siding with the Rockets. The first four games of this series have all been decided by double-digits with three of those coming by 20 or more points which is surprising after the four regular season meetings were decided by 12 points combined. Houston knows what it has to do to win this series and it showed in Game Four as the Rockets emphasized the importance of having a pedal-to-the-medal mentality from here on out. That is the lesson they had to re-learn in the first quarter, when that approach led to a 15-point lead just eight minutes in. They made 19 three-pointers and when uncontested shots are falling because of crisp passing, they are nearly impossible to beat and the Spurs still look to be a step behind. Houston is at a big advantage when it controls tempo and it does that by pushing the ball and not allowing the Spurs to set up their defense. While the blowout factor may still be in play, Houston is capable of being on the right end of that while a close game finally also favors the underdog points. 10* (707) Houston Rockets |
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The Wizards won in a blowout on Thursday and are in need of another win today to even up this series before heading back to Boston. Washington is catching a better line today as the number has come down a point from Game Three which goes against the bounce factor. The Wizards contained Isaiah Thomas on offense by making him play defense, as he finished with 13 points on 3-for-8 shooting, missing both of his three-point attempts, for his lowest scoring performance of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Making him play defense is a huge advantage because he just that bad. Out of the 86 results for DRPM (Defensive Real Plus Minus) among point guards on ESPN, Thomas is ranked 86th. As dynamic as he was in Game Two in the fourth quarter and in overtime, he can give it back just as easy as we saw in Game Three. The home floor has been great for Washington recently and all season as the Wizards have won nine of their last 11 games at the Verizon Center and are 34-11 at home on the season. Washington is now 21-9 ATS this season when favored by fewer than six points and the extra rest helps the Wizards as well as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest while the Celtics are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games playing on two days of rest. 10* (514) Washington Wizards |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +6.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
A switch in venue is just what the Jazz need after losing the first two games of this series by double-digits in Golden St. for the Warriors, the lone disappointment during a pair of double-digit wins has been allowing the Jazz to creep back into games after jumping out to big leads. Obviously, the home floor helped in those early stages of the game where Golden St. has outscored Utah 60-36 in the first quarter. Through the first two games of the series, Golden St. holds a 65-44 assist advantage over Utah which is vintage Warriors basketball and that is something Utah will have to catch up on. The Jazz are 30-14 on their home floor despite going just 1-2 against the Clippers in the first round series but now they are catching a healthy number in could possibly be the only game they may have a chance of stealing against the Warriors. Gordon Hayward shined with 33 points in the Game Two loss, but he needs more help from Joe Johnson, who has cooled off from his phenomenal Round One, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors. Hood continues to play through a knee injury, but he has elite scoring ability and the Jazz need that now. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while going 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing with one day of rest. 10* (510) Utah Jazz |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
After getting blown out in its first two games, Washington came back last night to win handily against Boston and we have a similar situation tonight with Toronto. The Raptors have dropped the first two games by 11 and 22 points, trailing both games by at least 25 points so their backs are against the wall but a return home will get them back into the series. The line differential heading into tonight favors the Raptors as we are seeing a 10-point shift and part of that is because of the questionable status of point guard Kyle Lowry but all indications are that he will be able to go. One player who will have a better game is DeMar DeRozan who is off one of the worst games of his career, a five-point, 2-for-11 outing in which he did not make his first field goal until the opening minute of the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers looked to have flipped the switch after having a horrible ending to the regular season as they have won their first six playoff games and have now won an incredible 16 straight round one and two playoff games. They encountered their first loss after 10 straight wins to open the postseason last year right in this building and we will see a similar outcome tonight. Despite the first two wins in this series, the Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (736) Toronto Raptors |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Wizards let us down on Tuesday as the underdog was covering the entire game until losing it in the last minute of overtime to fall down 2-0 in this series. Obviously this is a must win for Washington and being back home on its home floor will get it back in the series. The Wizards have won eight of their last 10 games here and are 33-11 at home on the season. Losing the way they did on Tuesday was a tough pill to swallow for Washington players but they know what is at stake tonight. Isaiah Thomas put up a game for the ages, or at least 17 minutes for the ages, as he scored 29 points in the fourth quarter and overtime which was just one-point shy of the entire Wizards point total. Being lost in that however is that John Wall arguably had just as good of a game with 40 points and 13 assists. The Celtics won all three road games against Chicago in the first round but that was a situation where the Bulls completely unraveled after the loss of Rajon Rondo as the last four games overall were never close. Overall Boston has won and covered six straight games and that is a streak we like to fade, especially with the importance of the game on the other side. Going back, the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Additionally, Washington is 20-9 ATS in its 29 games as a favorite this season of fewer than six points. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +8 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
We played the bounce angle last night with Washington and while it was the right call, it was a frustrating result as the Wizards covered for 52 of 53 minutes as they lost the cover with a minute left in overtime. We are going with the same angle tonight with Toronto as the Raptors fell behind big early against Cleveland and while they made the final score somewhat respectable, the game was not that close. Cleveland is the top team in the Eastern Conference but Toronto is no slouch and is better than what was on display on Monday and we will see a better effort. The Cavaliers benefitted from seven more made free throws in Game One so it will be up to Toronto to be more aggressive and the Raptors have actually averaged more free throw attempts and makes than Cleveland has this season. The Toronto backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry did not play well in Game One as the duo combined for 39 points, but only got to the free throw line nine times. Getting to the line more is a twofold advantage as it not only presents easy scoring opportunities but also gets the Cavaliers in foul trouble. Four of five starters played 32 or more minutes and the weakness of Cleveland is its bench. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss while the Cavaliers are still just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (731) Toronto Raptors |
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05-02-17 | Wizards +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
We catch Washington on Tuesday in a good situation in playing the bounce angle. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. Typically, the linesmakers do not make much of an adjustment anymore like they used to because zig zag players were cleaning up playing this angle. However, we are seeing a big jump here as the Wizards are getting four points at the Game Four close and now that number has gone up a point and a half for Game Two. Washington held a 17-point lead midway through the first quarter but were outscored by 32 points the rest of the way so that will be taken into consideration by bettors. The Wizards were clearly outplayed over the majority of the game but they are a much better team than what we saw on the court Sunday and we feel that they are still the better team in this series. Coming away with a win in Game Two enhances their chances greatly in this series but we are getting a very good line on top of that so an outright win is not our big concern here. One big issue for the Wizards in Game One was that Markieff Morris badly turned his ankle and was forced to the locker room and did not return so the rotations were messed up and it was all downhill from there. Now, Washington can adjust without Morris before the game. Going back, the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (501) Washington Wizards |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Both Houston and San Antonio won their first round series rather easily with the Rockets having a less stressful time of it against the Thunder. They head to San Antonio with an 11-4-1 ATS record as underdogs with two of those victories coming against the Spurs. That is a big reason for this play as the matchup is not unfavorable for Houston as the four meetings this season were decided by 12 points combined, three of which came by only two points. Houston has had an extra couple days of rest on top of it which is an additional advantage. San Antonio won its first series in six games but there was a slight scare when the series was tied at two games apiece and it easily could have gone seven games but Memphis was unable to sustain its second half lead. The Spurs had no issues at home against the Grizzlies but that was a slow paced matchup and now they will have to deal will a much faster team. The big matchup is Kawhi Leonard guarding James Harden and while many feel the former has the edge, that is not the case. With Leonard on the court this season, Harden averaged 27.4 points per 36 minutes, shooting 49 percent from the floor and the Rockets outscored the Spurs by seven points in the 141 minutes they shared the floor. The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win while the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (725) Houston Rockets |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
The home team dominated the regular season series between Washington and Boston as the host was a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the number but we expect that to change in the opener of this Round Two series. The Celtics are overvalued and overpriced. Statistically, Boston was the worst No. 1 seed in the last 38 years and then they lost their first two playoff games at home but came back to win four straight games against the Bulls to advance. The Celtics caught a huge break however as the loss of Rajon Rondo affected the Bulls more than expected as the offense had no flow, managing just 90.5 ppg in his four-game absence. Boston will not be as fortunate here however. Washington let Atlanta hang around for longer than expected but it did the job it needed to and now hits the road again where it is a solid 15-10 over its last 25 games. The Wizards outscored the Hawks 124-66 on fast break points. Their average of 20.7 fast break points per game was the highest in the first round. 20 percent of their possessions were in transition (also the highest rate) and their 1.15 points per possession in transition were third best. That spells trouble for Boston. The backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal dominated with 29.5 and 25.8 ppg, respectively, and based on the overall numbers, Washington has one of the most dominant starting fives in these playoffs. The Wizards are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win while the Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (735) Washington Wizards |
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04-28-17 | Celtics -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Chicago is on the brink of elimination as it is down three games to two following three straight losses after taking a 2-0 lead in this series. The offense has been horrible over the three losses, averaging only 93 ppg on 43.6 percent shooting and there seems to be no answer in sight. The Celtics were dominant once again in Game Five and played exceptional to the supposed strength of the Bulls. They forced 16 turnovers for 23 points, limited Chicago's rebounding advantage to 42-38 despite going small all night, and outscored the Bulls in the paint (56-42), on second chances (15-4) and in transition (12-4). This is a different scenario for Boston as unlike each of the previous win-or-go-home games, the Celtics are not looking to stave off elimination. Because of that, the Game Six matchup against Chicago presents a different kind of challenge unlike anything this team has seen before but the way they have turned things around shows it will be a non-issue. The loss of point guard Rajon Rondo cannot be overstated for the Bulls. There was a time earlier in the season when Rondo was benched as a healthy scratch and Chicago was able to work around that. However, when he has missed due to being injured when he is a big part of the lineup, the Bulls are 2-7. The Celtics are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (509) Boston Celtics |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
It is do-or-die time for Milwaukee as it has to win tonight or the Bucks will be sent to their seventh consecutive first round series loss. Milwaukee is certain to make adjustments after dropping two straight in a series they led 2-1 after a 27-point home rout in Game Three and it unfortunately ran into an unconscious Toronto team on Monday as the Raptors shot a franchise playoff record 57.7 percent from the floor. In the games Milwaukee has won, one thing is clear. They held the Raptors to bad outside shooting, and they took efficient shots. In Game Three, the Bucks shot 52 percent from the floor and from behind the arc. They have to hit these shots if they want to take this to a Game Seven. The one key player is Khris Middleton who is coming off his worst game of the series as he scored just eight points on 3-for-8 shooting with a three-pointer in Game Five. Milwaukee limited its turnovers early in the series but committed 20 miscues in its Game Four loss at home and had 15 turnovers leading to 28 Raptors points in Game Five. Additionally, the Bucks need to be more physical as the more aggressive team has prevailed in the first five games of this series. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and the Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (502) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
We lost with the Wizards on Monday as Atlanta used a 34-24 fourth quarter to pull away and win by 10 points. The home team has held serve so far in this series and it has been the Hawks that have been more dominant as they have won by 18 and 10 points while Washington took its two games by seven and eight points. Of the three wins by Atlanta over the Wizards this season, Washington has leads in the fourth quarter in two of those so even though the season series is at 5-3 in favor of Washington, it could be 7-1 if they were able to close these games out. Heading back home is what the Wizards been and they are again catching a good line. They are 32-11 at home this season and are laying a number that has been great as they are 15-5 ATS as home favorites of 5.5 points or less. Atlanta has been a below average road team this season and it is on a 2-9 run on the highway going back to mid-March. Before Game Three, Washington was pleased with how the team had been sidelining Dwight Howard and the Wizards were also pleased with their adjustments when Howard is absent. Then the Hawks big man posted a +24 in 26 minutes in Game 3, with only three fouls and a +8 in 30 minutes in Game Four, with also just three fouls. The Hawks are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for a big Wizards rebound on Wednesday. 10* (710) Washington Wizards |
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04-25-17 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Utah tied this series at two games apiece on Sunday and now has the edge moving forward despite having to play two games on the road should the series go the distance. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin for the remainder of the season with a toe injury as their luck once again has derailed them in the playoffs. The Jazz were able to tie this series up with Rudy Gobert coming back but not nearly 100 percent and he played only 23 minutes while Gordon Hayward was limited to just nine minutes because of food poisoning. Both will be ready to go tonight and the longer this series goes on, the tougher it becomes for the Clippers because of the increased workload Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan now face, and the overall age of the rest of the rotation. Utah was able to take advantage inside as Los Angeles was outscored 58-36 in the paint, and that is the area Griffin does most of his damage. The Clippers will get Austin Rivers back which looks like a move of desperation as he was not supposed to be back in this series at all and he should be far from 100 percent. The Jazz are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (707) Utah Jazz |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
With the victory on Saturday, Atlanta has won five straight home games and has gotten back into the series now by trailing two games to one. The Hawks 18-point win was more than the Wizards winning margins in the first two games combined but we have to make sure we realize which is the better team as those margins do not necessarily indicate that. Washington said it had to withstand the first five minutes of Game Three knowing the Hawks would come out with great intensity but the Wizards played the first quarter at half speed, allowing 38 points and setting the tone for the rest of the game in which they trailed and chased but never caught up. To leave Atlanta with a stranglehold on this round, up 3-1 as opposed to a 2-2 tie, Washington must heighten its sense of urgency, especially at the start of the game. Washington had won five straight against the Hawks prior to Saturday so it does have the matchup advantage. For Atlanta, one of the biggest factors in making this a series was committing only 11 turnovers after committing 18 in Game One and 19 in Game Two so it is up to Washington to play more intense and force more turnovers. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (519) Washington Wizards |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
In a league where the home court is so coveted, the road team has dominated this series thus far with three straight wins heading into Game Four. Give Boston credit for stepping up on Friday and getting itself a slim chance of getting back into this series after a pair of home losses but it was fortunate that the due of Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler shot a combined 33 percent from the floor in Game Three. It was an unfortunate situation for the Bulls on Friday because of the 6:00 PM local start time in Chicago, half of the arena was still empty at tipoff as thousands of commuters could not find their way through the horrific weekend traffic to the United Center in time for the start of the game. Luckily, Sunday will not provide that same issue plus will Chicago have to deal with a last minute injury and scramble to put together a lineup and gameplan which certainly hurt after having two days off prior to Game Three. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. 10* (514) Chicago Bulls |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Laying points on the road in the playoffs is tough to swallow at times but the advantages are there if the situation is right and this is one of those times. After annihilating Memphis in the first two games of this series, the Spurs were competitive for a half in Game Three before the Grizzlies pulled away and eventually won by 11 points. The home team has won all seven meetings this season but the first of the three home wins for Memphis, San Antonio was without Kawhi Leonard so there is an asterisk beside that one. The Spurs have been a great team bouncing back from defeat and are actually the best in the NBA over the last two seasons as they are 30-9 over their 39 games following a loss. And they have been at their best following bad losses. The Spurs looked nothing like the team that won 63 games during the regular season as while they remained competitive early, their offense sputtered throughout the second half. Memphis came in with more energy following the rant from head coach David Fizdale after the Game Two defeat and it is pretty safe to say we will not be seeing a flat Spurs team on Saturday. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (505) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-22-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Toronto never led in Game Three and put up one of their worst offensive performances in playoff history as the Raptors scored 46 points through the first three quarters. They went into halftime down 57-30 which was just four points shy of their biggest halftime deficit in playoff history but we can expect a rebound today as this series is far from over and as bad as the Raptors have looked to some, they can gain home court advantage back today with a victory. Milwaukee has covered all three games in this series thus far and clearly had the energy in Game Three but this is a game where experience should come through. Kyle Lowry (44), DeMar DeRozan (31), DeMarre Carroll (47), Jonas Valanciunas (23) and Serge Ibaka (89) came into the series with 234 games of playoff experience while Milwaukee brought in just 28 games of playoff experience. The fact that this is a day game definitely helps the road team as night games tend to be a lot more frenzied. Toronto has covered four of its last five games following a loss while the Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (501) Toronto Raptors |
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04-21-17 | Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
We won with Oklahoma City on Wednesday but unfortunately for the Thunder, they blew a 15-point lead and lost their second straight game in this series. Like Indiana last night, this is certainly a must win for the Thunder and while the Pacers choked it up, Oklahoma City gets it done here. They are 28-13 at home including a 25-8 record when favored, covering 23 of those games while going 8-4 ATS this season when favored by fewer than three points. Houston had a significant home court advantage during the first two games and the Rockets have been great there all season long and we will see a switch in that tonight and the Thunder should have learned something from the Indiana choke job last night. The Thunder got nothing in Game One from everyone outside of Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson. In Game Two, they basically got everything from everyone except Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. For Game three, it does need to be a full team effort. Westbrook tallied a massive triple-double with 51 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists, but a poor 4-for-18 shooting performance in the fourth quarter left the Thunder just short in Game Two. The Thunder are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games including 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (718) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | Top | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Each series has now gone two games and the Game One ATS winner is now 6-2 ATS in Game Two so players using the Zig Zag Theory have not fared well. We did go against one of those last night and won with the Thunder and we will do the same tonight with the Cavaliers which are 0-2 ATS in this series thus but very well could be 2-0 ATS. Cleveland burned us twice in the first two games of this series as it blew a 12-point lead in Game One after getting outscored by seven points in the fourth quarter and then blew a 19-point lead in Game Two after getting outscored by 12 points in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers won both games however which makes this a must win game for the Pacers but this is not a good matchup at all. Cleveland is 5-1 in the six meetings against Indiana this season with the one loss coming here in the first meeting back in November but LeBron James was a scratch as he did not dress for that game. Going back to the 2015 postseason, the Cavs hold a 26-4 playoff record against Eastern Conference opponents, which includes an 11-3 mark on the road. Additionally, James has won at least one road playoff game in 26 consecutive playoff series, a streak that dates back to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland has won 17 of 26 games as a road favorite this series and it takes a commanding lead in this series. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Oklahoma City hung around for a while against Houston on Sunday but the Rockets pulled away in the second half by outscoring the Thunder by 26 points to take Game One of this series. The Thunder shot just 37 percent from the floor with Victor Oladipo having the worst night with a 1-12 performance but we can expect a better display tonight from him and the rest of the team for that matter. While the last two games in this season series have resulted in double-digit Houston wins, the first three meetings were decided by a total of seven points. The problem in Game One for the Thunder was the inability to win the rebounding battle despite coming in as the best rebounding team in the NBA. There is little excuse for the top rebounding team in the NBA to be outworked 14-7 on the offensive glass, and outscored 31-4 in second-chance points by any opponent. The Thunder were below average on the road this season but are still a solid 7-3 over their last 10 games on the highway and the Rockets will not have the same energy they had on Sunday as it is extremely hard to replicate a resounding victory like they had. We talk about the bounce angle often in the playoffs and we avoided it last night with the Bulls and so far in this postseason, teams that have lost Game One against the number are 0-5 ATS in the next game but we are going against the tonight. 10* (703) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +7 v. Celtics | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Tuesday features three games where the home team lost Game One making these games nearly must wins for all three teams. That includes the Celtics which lost at home on Sunday despite a very inspirational effort by Isaiah Thomas and while the situation may call for a bounce back here, the value is not there. We talked about the bounce angle yesterday with the Cavaliers and they blew an 18-point lead by letting up late once again but that bounce angle is not in favor of Boston here based on the line which has gone the opposite way unexpectedly. Boston entered the playoffs as one of the weakest No. 1 seeds in recent memory as the Celtics finished the season with just a +2.6 ppg differential which was just two points better than the Bulls and the veteran advantage that Chicago has cannot be overstated. In Game One, the Bulls dominated the boards, ending up with a 53-36 advantage. The Bulls controlled inside throughout the game and forced the Celtics into shooting from the outside, where the shots stopped falling in the fourth quarter. Boston is just 6-15 ATS this season as a favorite of seven or more while Chicago is 9-3 ATS as an underdog of seven or more and the situation also favors Chicago as the Bulls are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (527) Chicago Bulls |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happen in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. The Cavaliers won Game One by just one point and nearly lost as Indiana missed a last second shot for the victory and while the Pacers will be out to gain the home court advantage with a win, the Cavaliers will be out to keep it before hitting the road and that is important in this series with the dominant home record on both sides. The bounce angle as mentioned backs the team that did not cover the previous game and is showing a line move based on that and in this case, the Cavaliers are favored by close to a bucket less than they were in Game One so that is where the value aspect comes into play. Cleveland controlled the game the majority of the time on Saturday and was able to withstand a late comeback by Indiana so the goal tonight is to play the same but keep the pedal down while cleaning up the transition game and do a better job from the free throw line. 10* (518) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-16-17 | Thunder +7 v. Rockets | Top | 87-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is the highest total on the board for Sunday which means there should be plenty of points which gives the big underdog a solid advantage. Oklahoma City and Houston should make for a very entertaining first round series and if the regular season series is a preview, that will be the case with the exception of the final meeting. The Thunder were an average road team this season however they did close strong with a 7-2 run over their last nine road games. Houston limps into the postseason on a 4-5 run and the Rockets have struggled in this role immensely as they are just 6-14 ATS at home against teams with a winning record while going 3-14 ATS as single-digit favorites of seven or more points. Houston has not covered a game since March 26, losing nine straight against the number over this stretch, and while that would normally make for a play-on opportunity, that is not the case here with an inflated number. The first three games of this series were decided by a total of seven points so Oklahoma City could have entered this clash ahead 3-1 and we can expect another close one here in this series opener. 10* (515) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-15-17 | Bucks +7 v. Raptors | Top | 97-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Milwaukee is one of the more dangerous lower seeds in the NBA playoffs and Toronto got a tough break with this first round matchup. The Raptors locked down the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference following four straight wins to end the regular season. They are deserving of this spot and arguably should be a higher seed but even with that, they are overpriced against a team that closed the season strong after a pretty bad start. The encouraging thing from the Bucks standpoint is that they went 14-4 in March and were 21-15 overall after their most recent loss to Toronto. Toronto rolled over Milwaukee in the first three meetings this season but this is a different Bucks team now as Khris Middleton was not around for those first three games. He is the key for Milwaukee heading into the playoffs as he certainly showed his rust at times after coming back from a torn hamstring but his playoff experience is vital. The Bucks pressure defense is notorious for giving up wide open shots after multiple perimeter swings but that is not the Raptors game however, as they rank dead last in the NBA in assists per game. They have a solid home court advantage but are just 12-7 over their last 19 games here. 10* (503) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-12-17 | Kings +15.5 v. Clippers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Must win situations can be over exaggerated and in those cases, lines are overinflated which is what we are seeing here. The situation is very simple for the Clippers, win and they claim the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference which guarantees home court advantage in their first round matchup against the Jazz. Utah hosts San Antonio and it needs to win and have Los Angeles lose to claim the No. 4 spot but that will not be easy as the Spurs are not resting key rotation players in order to maintain rhythm for the first-round. Another important aspect of that game is that the time was moved to 9:05 ET from the late time slot so should San Antonio win, the Clippers will know by halftime and likely sit starters the rest of the game. Sacramento won last night against Phoenix with a 129-point effort and it closes out another disappointing season tonight. The Kings have been shorthanded for a while now but they have gone 5-4 over their last nine games so they have actually holding their own down the stretch. Now, they are catching another inflated number based on the situation. Going back two weeks ago, Sacramento was getting a bucket less here and won that game outright against Los Angeles. The Clippers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (727) Sacramento Kings |