Texas State should be able to cover against Colorado State on Thursday at a number around -14 to -14.5. Texas State's offense will have a field day against the Rams. They are putting up around 532 yards per game which includes 264 rushing yards a game. After allowing Oregon State to score 56 points and gain over 600 yards Colorado State has no business trying to play defense against a team that will play fast and run and throw the football. 

Another reason why I like Texas State is because the Colorado State Rams have multiple players hurt on their offense. QB Hauss Hejny is listed as questionable with a hamming injury. Their leading receiver RJ Vick is also listed questionable and they have already dealt with injuries on their offensive line. If they continue to use K'saan Farrar as their starter they will be missing some of that big play ability from Hejny. Which could cause them to fall behind if Texas State starts putting up 30-40 point games. 

Another spot I like is Texas State being at home. Both teams had a bye week so they had time to prepare and I feel like Texas State will want to redeem themselves after dropping a game to San Diego State. Colorado State is on a 3 game losing streak and their defense was so bad they had to change coordinators after the Oregon State game. Change always helps but it's tough when you're playing against one of the best offenses in the country. 

What worries me is Texas State's defense but I don't think we will see them giving up too many points. Colorado State will be able to score and stay competitive for some of the game but over the course of 4 quarters I think Texas State will out play them and run away with this game. 

Jim’s Play : 116. Texas State (PAC-12 Game of the Month)

I'm going with Colorado to take down Dallas on Wednesday night. With both teams squaring off in Denver to finish off their home and away series. Colorado has had an insane offense this season coming into Tuesday's game they were averaging 5.20 goals per game. That's the highest in the entire NHL. They should be able to exploit Dallas poor offense this week. With Nathan MacKinnon putting up 5 goals and 10 points over 5 games he will continue to produce many chances for Colorado to score on. Coming into Tuesday,  Dallas had only scored 1 goal or less in all of their losses. Which if they don't find a way to score against Colorado this game will be a long night.

Colorado will also be at home on Wednesday where they went 26-9-6 at Ball arena last season. So with their many weapons they can continue to score on Dallas. Martin Necas, Brock Nelson,  Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog can all chip in with goals. They also may have Scott Wedgewood starting on Wednesday. Allowing him to play against his old team could allow for good goaltending. Dallas has some great weapons as well with Rantanen, Robertson and Hintz. But without Matt Duchene they will be missing one more player who can score. I think we will see more goals from MacKinnon and Colorado will have the better chance at winning this game.

Jim’s Play: 48. Avalanche

Buffalo arrives averaging 31.8 points per game and Josh Allen continues to be one of the most challenging quarterbacks to stop from reaching the end zone, as he possesses the ability to beat you with his arm and legs. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, providing another avenue to develop explosive plays while staying ahead of the chains against the Rams defense.

However, Los Angeles should be able to do plenty of scoring as well. Matthew Stafford has two dynamic weapons in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to attack a Buffalo secondary that just allowed 405 yards and 29 points against New England. Buffalo will also be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which might open up even more opportunities for a Rams rushing attack that's averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Los Angeles has the balance in their offense to force Buffalo into tough decisions. If they load up to stop the run, Stafford can consistently attack downfield. If they sit back to help their secondary, then the Rams can pound away with the run. Driving downfield and putting up high numbers should not be a problem for this Rams offense. I expect them to put up 27-plus points.

We also saw these two quarterbacks go back-and-forth last time these teams faced off at SoFi Stadium. The 44-42 final score featured six touchdowns by Josh Allen. While I'm not expecting 86 points this time around, I use this as proof of how fast this game can turn into a shootout when both quarterbacks get in rhythm.

Jim’s Play: 478. Bills/Rams Over

Dallas should have a good chance to exploit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they come to Arlington on Thursday night. The Cowboys sit at 2-2 after beating Houston on the road 34-30, the Bucs have no wins this season and sit at 0-4. One factor that stands out is the QB matchup, Dallas will have Dak Prescott against Tampa Bay's injured QB Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay will be starting Jalon Daniels who will only be making his second career start after throwing two interceptions in their 17-14 loss to Green Bay. Not only will he have to prepare for a short week but he'll be playing away from home against an offense that can score on you quickly.

The Cowboys have averaged 30.5 points a game which is very impressive. Dak went off for 335 passing yards against Houston and had CeeDee Lamb catch 17 balls for 189 yards. Tampa Bay will be missing some key defenders in Antoine Winfield Jr and Benjamin Morrison which should open up some deep shots for Prescott. They should be able to keep the chains moving as well and Tampa Bay won't be able to generate much pressure which will allow Prescott more time to throw the ball to Lamb and George Pickens.

Dallas is 3-1 against the spread this season, Tampa Bay has not covered a single game. One thing that can hurt Dallas is their defense, they have allowed a lot of points. But with Tampa Bay having a weak QB situation and not being able to score points consistently they shouldn't be able to take advantage. I think Dallas will get an early lead and put Daniels in some obvious situations. I would expect the Cowboys to cover the number at home.

Jim's Play:  308. Cowboys

It sure looks like Tuesday night could be a prime spot for the St. Louis Blues to take down the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago is 0-3 to open the season and they continue to be without their biggest offensive threat Connor Bedard. Bedard was a full participant in practice on Monday skating in a non-contact jersey, but has still not received clearance for contact after offseason shoulder surgery. Andrew Mangiapane was a full participant on Monday as well, but is considered week-to-week after suffering a lower-body injury.

Those injuries leave an already shaky Chicago offense as thin as ever. Chicago allowed four goals on Saturday in a 4-3 loss to Buffalo and have surrendered at least four goals in each of their first three games. St. Louis has more center depth with Robert Thomas, Mason McTavish and Dalibor Dvorsky giving them multiple lines that can manufacture offense. We saw what their top-9 could do in the season opener when the Blues blanked Dallas 4-0. McTavish tallied in his debut while Joel Hofer recorded the shutout stopping all 25 shots he faced.

Sure, St. Louis was dismantled 6-1 at Colorado on Saturday, but that game against the Blackhawks looks a whole lot easier after digging into how both teams have played through three games. Chicago doesn't have Colorado's offensive punch and without Bedard they lack a proven elite game-killer that can expose St. Louis on defense. Chicago is probably giving up value as the Blues are hovering around -115 on the road considering how competitive this game should be, but I like St. Louis skating to victory with a deeper lineup and more consistent scoring threats.

Jim’s Play: 21. Blues  (Central Division Game of the Month)

The Bills have a great match up to win and cover. Buffalo is coming into Sunday 3-0 and averaging a league leading 33.7 points per game. New England is 1-2 and averaging a league tied low of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo also defeated the Chargers 24-16 last week, New England got destroyed 35-6 by Jacksonville.

One player makes this game. Josh Allen has 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns in just three games. New England's Drake Maye has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. If Buffalo can get out in front of this game, they may be able to take New England out of their balanced attack and put more on Maye.

There's also injury news on the Patriots side that will help Buffalo. The Patriots will be missing CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Christian Barmore. Without Gonzalez this could be tough for the Patriots against Allen and their pass offense. Barmore is another tough loss, he can create a lot of pressure up the middle and play the run. Buffalo has no players ruled out, but CB Christian Benford is listed as questionable and DL T.J. Sanders is doubtful.

Buffalo will also be playing at home, they have won their first 2 games in their new stadium. The Patriots will have to come to Orchard park and slow down one of the highest scoring teams in football.

This game looks to be the biggest mismatch on the board for Sunday as the Bills should win this game by at least two touchdowns.

Jim's Play: 254. Bills (AFC East Game of the Month)

I feel good about Eastern Michigan plus the points vs UMass on Saturday. I think the Eagles can hang with them for the entire game.

After their 29-3 win over Lindenwood Eastern comes in hot. They out gained Lindenwood 396-191 with 4 sacks and no TD allowed. They are also one of the teams that don't get penalized as much which can come into play if you're getting more than a FG in what I think will be a close game.

With QB Noah Kim Eastern should be able to compete offensively as well. He’s passed for 968 yards with 6 td's and only 3 INTs. He is leading the MAC in completions per game. As long as he can take care of the football Eastern should be able to move the ball and keep this game close.

Another angle to like this game is the series history. Eastern Michigan has beaten UMass the last 4 times they've met. Last year they beat them 28-14 at Amhurst. They are 2-1 all time at UMass so they shouldn't be scared of going there.

I'm sure you can make a case for UMass being 4-0 but I feel like Eastern is a solid dog play here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: 129. Eastern Mich (MAC Game of the Month)

Pitt has the opportunity to win outright on Friday night. Since Pitt has the number one rushing defense in the country they have a chance against one of the top rushing offenses in the country. Virginia Tech has been averaging 177.8 rushing yards per game, if Pitt can keep them to 53.3 rushing yards per game like they have been allowing they will have a huge advantage. They can take away the run game from Virginia Tech and force Grunkemeyer into obvious passing downs. Pitt allows only 8.5 points per game and are currently ranked 3rd in points allowed.

Another advantage is their  QB. Mason Heintschel has been completing 67.7% of his passes this season, he has passed for 1,191 yards and 13 touchdowns while only throwing 1 interception. He is averaging almost 298 yards per game, which will allow them to beat Virginia Tech's pass rush and score plenty of points. They just came out with a win against their previous opponent, with Heintschel passing for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Virginia Tech will be at home and have a strong defense as well, allowing 11.3 tfl and 4.25 sacks per game. They also have a sold out stadium, so that will be a tough environment for Pitt, but I think they can hang around until the 4th quarter and have Mason Heintschel make some big plays to win this game. Pitt has also won the last 3 out of 4 times these teams have met, so they should be able to come away with a win.

Jim's Play: 107. Pittsburgh (ACC Game of the Week)

I Like Cleveland to win outright and cover the +2.5 or +3 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.

Cleveland comes into this AFC North rivalry matchup at 2-1 and fresh off a two-game winning streak, highlighted by Sunday’s 21-18 comeback victory over Carolina. Deshaun Watson wasn’t fantasy football friendly against Carolina’s defense, but he came through for Cleveland when it needed him most, connecting on the game-winning touchdown pass to Harold Fannin Jr. with two minutes remaining.

The biggest reason to like Cleveland on Thursday night is its defense. Cleveland pressured Bryce Young on 51% of his dropbacks last week and Mason Graham notched two sacks himself. Graham now has four sacks through three games, and that interior pressure will be important against Aaron Rodgers this week on a short week, particularly if Cleveland can force Pittsburgh into obvious passing downs.

Pittsburgh is banged up heading into this game as well. Starting cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will miss this game, while starters Jalen Ramsey and Brandin Echols are questionable. Running back Rico Dowdle will also not play in this one, so Pittsburgh’s already suspect secondary could be exploited by Watson and Cleveland’s speedy young receivers.

Factor in Cleveland’s strong home-field advantage against Pittsburgh, and I like Cleveland outright in this one.

Both teams have injuries along the offensive line to deal with, but in a game that has the potential to be close and physical - like most divisional matchups - taking the points with the Browns at home is fine by me.

Expect Cleveland’s defense to harass Rodgers into at least one turnover and give Watson enough short fields to win another close game at home.

Jim’s Play: 102. Browns

The New York Yankees can take care of business against Boston in game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series on Wednesday. After winning game 1 by 9 runs, the Yankees will have plenty of momentum going into Wednesday. Not only did they get a great offensive game from Ben Rice, they also had Cam Schlittler throw 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Which gave them a chance to not use many of their high leverage relievers. This leaves them with plenty of bullpen available for game 2.

The Yankees will have Max Fried take the ball in game 2. Fried finished the regular season with a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 20 starts. Giving the Yankees another good starter to go against a Boston team that was struck out cold in game 1 and have had trouble producing offense over the last stretch of the season.

The Red Sox will have Sonny Gray start for them in game 2. He had a very good season going 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA. So expect this game to be much more competitive then the box score from game 1. However, the Yankees had more home runs over the course of the season. They hit 223 home runs, Boston only had 163. And also had the better team ERA. Although the Yankees will be missing Aaron Judge for this wild card series with a calf injury, they proved in game 1 that they can hit without him. Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, George Lombard Jr. and others can produce.

If they can keep Max Fried on the mound, they have plenty of bullpen, and play at home they should be able to take care of business in game 2 on Wednesday.

Jim’s Play: 906. Yankees

Take the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday as Milwaukee has the advantage in starting pitching and has been the superior team throughout the season.

The Brewers will start Logan Henderson who is 10-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 107 strikeouts on the year. Philadelphia will start Aaron Nola who is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA. This gives Milwaukee the advantage on the mound as long as Henderson prevents Philadelphia’s power hitters from making quick contact.

Milwaukee is also riding a great season at 98-59 heading into Wednesday after suffering a 6-4 defeat at the hands of Philadelphia on Tuesday. Prior to Tuesday’s loss, Milwaukee had won 5 straight games and were coming off a franchise record setting win streak. Milwaukee has also been incredible on the road this year at 46-33.

Milwaukee proved they could manufacture runs against great pitching on Tuesday, scoring 4 runs against Zack Wheeler and Philadelphia’s bullpen. Wednesday should present an easier matchup against Nola, and Milwaukee has speed and enough depth in their lineup to manufacture runs without having to slug the ball over the fence with every at bat.

Logan Henderson has the advantage on the mound and Milwaukee has one of the best records in baseball with an excellent run differential. I like Milwaukee to rebound on Wednesday and split the series.

Jim’s Play: 953. Brewers (NL Game of the Month)

I like both offenses to propel this game OVER here on Tuesday for my WNBA Total of the Year.  Each team has enough offensive weapons to take this game into the 190’s.

These two teams have already played once this season with Minnesota coming away with a 108-100 victory that saw 208 points scored. That game gave us an idea of how tough it can be on either defense when games get played at a quicker pace.

Indiana has been one of the best Over teams in the WNBA this season, going 26-16 to the Over. In the four games leading up to Sunday’s 93-77 loss at Washington, the Fever scored 103, 111, 113 and 102 points. Caitlin Clark also returned to action Sunday and scored 25 points. Clark gives Indiana another weapon they can utilize on offense.

Minnesota is fresh off a 101-89 victory over Connecticut, so both offenses should be clicking on Tuesday. Indiana has been especially lethal at home, scoring 99.2 points per game. Both teams have the ability to reach the mid-to-upper 90s on Tuesday night.

Taking the first meeting into account with 208 points scored and both offenses having the capability of scoring 95-or-more points, I like the upside to shoot past the current number.

Jim’s Play: 609. Min Lynx / Ind Fever OVER (WNBA Total of the Year)

New York shocked the football world in Week 1 with a 28-20 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Quarterback Jaxson Dart contributed to the victory with three passing touchdowns. Beyond that, Dart has played well in primetime throughout his college career, providing the Giants with a quarterback that should be up for the Monday night atmosphere.

Los Angeles’s offense was nonexistent in Week 1, managing just seven points. Quarterback Matthew Stafford struggled, completing just 12 of 27 passes for 124 yards. The Rams might be without receiver Puka Nacua, who is questionable with a hip injury, and Jordan Whittington is doubtful.

Los Angeles also announced that Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett will begin the year on injured reserve after undergoing knee surgery. Without Garrett, it’ll be hard for the Rams defense to consistently pressure Dart. The Giants also have their starting left tackle Andrew Thomas back from injury, as he was recently cleared to play.

Taking into account how well the Giants played in Week 1, the injuries the Rams are dealing with at receiver, and Los Angeles’ offense struggling out of the gate, The Rams may also still be adjusting to the long travel and jet lag from their week 1 trip to Australia.  I like New York to stay within the number down the stretch.

Jim’s Play: 279. Giants

I'll take Ole Miss +2.5 vs LSU this Saturday. The Rebels should have a good chance to win this game in the Magnolia Bowl.

One factor that comes into play is LSU QB Sam Leavitt being injured. He was listed doubtful at practice earlier this week with an upper body injury and was bumped to questionable. He has completed for 574 yards this season, but has also thrown 4 INTs. Any type of ailment that affects his arm/ability to move around will be key against a hostile crowd. They also have their leading tackler LB TJ Dottery listed as questionable.

Ole Miss has played very well at home. Last week's win over Charlotte brought their home winning streak to 13 games, which is the 3rd longest in the FBS. They have won their first two games this season, beating Louisville by 3 in their first game of the year.

Trinidad Chambliss is also another veteran at the position for Ole Miss. Chambliss led Ole Miss to a win over LSU in Oxford last season. Ole Miss can run the ball and spread the ball around, not allowing LSU to focus on one aspect of the game.

It's also an emotional game with former Ole Miss head coach, Lane Kiffin, coming back to Oxford. Ole Miss should have a strong advantage at home, especially early.

With Ole Miss being a +2.5 at home, LSU questionable at QB, and a home win streak going, I think this game will go into the 4th quarter.

Jim’s Play: 198. Mississippi  (SEC Game of the Month)

I’m taking the Buffalo Bills to cover the spread Thursday night against Detroit and the Lions’ injury concerns up front on the offensive line are a big part of why.

Detroit will be without starting right tackle Blake Miller and left guard Christian Mahogany on Thursday while starting center Cade Mays was recently placed on injured reserve. The Lions will be potentially replacing three starters up front against Buffalo this week on a short week. That’s a tall task against a Buffalo defensive line that racked up three sacks between Greg Rousseau and Deone Walker alone in Week 1. 

The injuries along the Lions’ offensive line could spell trouble for quarterback Jared Goff. Buffalo should be able to tee off on Goff while only rushing four defenders and dropping more players into coverage on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Detroit’s injury issues could also limit the running game of Jahmyr Gibbs, who logged a whopping 34 touches in Week 1.

Buffalo also holds the advantage offensively. Josh Allen racked up 357 yards from scrimmage and tossed four touchdowns during Buffalo’s 36-31 win over the Houston Texans in Week 1. Allen now gets to go up against a Detroit defense that also has injuries in the secondary.

Buffalo also holds an advantage situationally. Thursday night marks the first-ever regular-season game in the new Highmark Stadium. Expect Buffalo to feed off the crowd and get some home-field advantage energy rushing Goff on Thursday night.

If Buffalo can force Goff out of rhythm early with pressure, Detroit will struggle to operate their preferred balanced attack and fall behind the high-scoring Allen early. I could easily see Buffalo winning by seven points or more with how comfortable they should be playing with an advantage up front while opposing quarterbacks continue to struggle against their defense.

Jim’s Play: 105. Buffalo Bills (Thursday Night Game of the Month)

I like Georgia Tech +12.5 against Tennessee on Saturday. Tennessee certainly looked like a team that could score at will against Furman, putting up 56 points in their opener. However, this will be Tennessee’s first game away from home, and it’s against a Georgia Tech defense that showed some promise against Colorado in their opener.

Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS at home against ranked opponents under Brent Key, which has me liking nearly two touchdowns here.

Georgia Tech’s defense kept Colorado to just 14 points and 307 yards in Week 1. The Jackets lost 14-13, but it wasn’t like Colorado was lighting up Georgia Tech all game long. Their defense is the reason I think this game will stay close.

Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza had a nice opener, throwing for 237 yards against Colorado and several big plays. If Justice Haynes can step up and Georgia Tech’s run game can have success, this offense can move the ball against Tennessee.

I have multiple projection models that make this game considerably closer than what the line is indicating, including one that projects Tennessee by only three and another that comes out to Tennessee -8.7. I’ll take the double digits here on Saturday and look for a much closer game than expected. 

Jim’s Play: 378. Georgia Tech  (Game of the week)

I like the Brewers in this rivalry contest with the Chicago Cubs. And the main reason is that the largest edge here belongs to Logan Henderson over Kevin Gausman. Henderson is 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP on the season and struck out Chicago for two runs across seven innings the last time these pitchers squared off just last week. He’s been one of Milwaukee’s most consistent starters all year long.

Gausman actually matched up nicely against the Brewers in that first meeting, yielding just one run across seven innings, but Milwaukee gets a second crack at him in under a week’s time. This is a high-contact Brewers lineup after all and Jackson Chourio is tearing it up right now, going 4-For-5 on Tuesday with his 22nd homerun of the season.

The late innings also favor Milwaukee as we sit here today. Chicago has blown leads in both games of this series already, including a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, while Milwaukee continues to scratch and claw runs against the Cubs bullpen. This could again be a close game and who you trust in the late innings matters.

Henderson's strong track record of consistency this season, plus home field advantage and Milwaukee simply carrying all the momentum in this series, I’ll take the Brewers to close out the sweep.

Jim’s Play: 958. Brewers

Memphis opened the season with a 27-21 win at UNLV. The final score is a little deceiving because Memphis was outgained by the Rebels 460-418, ran 79 plays to Memphis' 60 and possessed the ball for over 35 minutes. Memphis converted just 3-of-11 third downs. When Memphis needed to make a play, they did so with six sacks. That being said, I like Arkansas State plus the points, especially now that the spread has moved higher for Arkansas State.

Memphis is a deserving favorite, but the number suggests that Arkansas State cannot win this game even if they play their best game of the season. I think Memphis is an improved team, but Arkansas State returns 10 starters (seven on offense) and 41 letter winners. The Red Wolves have gone to three straight bowl games and won their bowl game in each of the last two seasons under Butch Jones.

All three of those players mentioned above return as preseason first team All-Sun Belt. Receiver/returner Chauncy Cobb gives Arkansas State the best weapon for exploiting defenses because he'll provide the Red Wolves with short fields and give them a chance to make big plays with his return ability. Big plays on special teams are huge when you’re catching double digits.

For what it's worth, Memphis is still installing things with a roster that Charles Huff completely overhauled this offseason. They’ll get credit for winning in game one, but game two is a completely different challenge. Laying double digits in the heat of emotion against a seasoned team that knows you is a different ballgame entirely. Arkansas State has also faced Memphis 60 times so they will not scare easy based on opponent or atmosphere.

If anything, the market getting there should make Arkansas State even more attractive as the line has moved a couple of points in the Memphis direction.

Jim's Play: 215. Arkansas State (CFB Game of the Week)

I'm taking the Tigers to right the ship on Wednesday against the Twins. Detroit's starting pitching gives it the best shot of any Detroit starter from taking this series.

Drew Anderson will take the mound for Detroit against Dean Kremer and Anderson has been much steadier than Kremer of late. Anderson has a 3.87 ERA and has allowed just seven earned runs over his last five starts. He was excellent against Los Angeles in his last start, tossing 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball on just four hits.

Kremer, meanwhile, comes in with a 5.60 ERA and was lit up by Chicago over his last start, surrendering six runs (five earned) in four innings. In fact, Kremer has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five outings. Kremer also got rocked by Detroit earlier this season, allowing eight runs on eight hits in just four innings during a 14-0 loss on July 28.

Detroit certainly has to respond in a big way after Minnesota outscored them 26-3 in Games 1 and 2 of this series. But a game against Kremer and the Tigers' pitching staff lines up as a classic bounce-back spot. Minnesota has mashed recently, but it feels like a lot to expect that kind of production again against Anderson, who has generally kept his team in games.

Detroit's power bats should also have a better opportunity against Kremer. Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson and Detroit’s other younger hitters should see more quality pitches than they did in Games 1 and 2, but Detroit doesn't necessarily need to light it up if Anderson can keep runs off the board.

Detroit wins because Anderson's 3.87 ERA vastly outmatches Kremer’s 5.60 ERA, and because Detroit has already scored eight runs off of Kremer this season.

Jim's Play: 919. Tigers 

I’m taking the Buffalo Bills to cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night with the line currently hovering around Buffalo -2.5 to -3. As with most preseason handicapping, Thursday night’s game will come down to depth and quarterback play, two areas where Buffalo holds a clear advantage.

The Bills are 2-0 with a 60-21 scoring advantage through two games, including a 31-7 road victory against Cleveland last week while resting starters. Buffalo’s second and third teams have been impressive, steadily moving the football throughout the first two weeks of the preseason. Depth will be crucial when the games start counting for real in September and Buffalo has given me every reason to believe it has one of the league’s deeper rosters.

Buffalo also has a clear advantage at quarterback. Allen provides the Bills with a veteran NFL starter running the second-team offense. Allen has been efficient throughout the preseason, showing the ability to move the offense without turning the ball over. Buffalo’s running backs have also been solid, with Ray Davis, Ian Wheeler and Frank Gore Jr. rushing for a combined 231 yards and three scores.

Pittsburgh will likely turn most of its quarterbacking duties over to two unproven rookies in Will Howard and Drew Allar. Pittsburgh’s duo combined to throw two interceptions and complete just 11 of 23 passes for 110 yards last week during Pittsburgh’s 17-0 loss at the Jets. Allar was also sacked three times. 

Buffalo’s backups have been good enough to score points this preseason, while Pittsburgh’s duo could find themselves struggling against a Bills defense that has allowed just 21 points through two games.

Buffalo plays at home and has continued to find ways to win even with its starters sidelined. Thursday night’s game may very well come down to depth and quarterback play and that’s why I’m taking the Bills to cover in what I see is around a 2-touchdown Bills win. 

Jim's Play: 102. Bills (NFL Preseason Game of the Year)

I like Indianapolis for one simple reason: the Colts have the better QBs once this becomes a reserves game.

We already know that Indianapolis will start Riley Leonard and play him through halftime. Anthony Richardson Sr. will enter the game in the second half and play out the game. That means Indianapolis will have stability at QB for four quarters instead of rotation after rotation. Richardson, in particular, impressed during the preseason opener. In his half of play, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 145 yards, added 53 yards on the ground, and scored a rushing touchdown. Richardson’s ability to escape the pocket could be a big problem for Atlanta’s backups late in this one.

Atlanta is expected to bench its starters after two joint practices with Indianapolis this week. That means Tua Tagovailoa will not play and Michael Penix Jr. will sit as he continues to recover from a back injury. The Falcons will roll with veteran Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback, which is a significant downgrade from what Atlanta rolled out just one week ago. The Falcons starters combined for seven points against Denver in a 27-7 preseason loss.

Indianapolis even proved it has depth defensively in Week 1. Rookie edge rushers George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry each had a sack. The Colts also held New England to 13 points in a tie. Depth will be key against Atlanta, which will be without most of its starting skill position players.

I’m taking the Colts since both teams will be rolling with their backups and Atlanta will be starting Jake Lugo, Cooper Rush, and Jack Strand under center.

Jim's Play: 414. Colts (NFL Game of the Week) 

I’ll take the Mystics to win and cover against the Toronto Tempo on Wednesday night, even though Washington is laying somewhere around 9.5 to 10.5 points. There are a lot of situational and matchup advantages that go in Washington’s favor.

Let’s start with each team’s recent momentum. Washington is 20-14 overall and 8-2 over its last 10 games. Toronto, on the other hand, has fallen to 10-24 and has now lost 11 straight games. Not only are the Tempo on a losing streak, but they just played Tuesday night, getting beaten  101-95 by Indiana. Indiana led by as many as 17 points in that contest.  Toronto is playing the second game of a back-to-back on Wednesday. Washington has had four full days of rest since their last game, a 80-70 win over Los Angeles on Saturday.

Washington also owns the season series, having won all three games against Toronto this year. The last meeting wasn’t even close, as Washington beat Toronto 79-62 on July 14th. Washington outscored Toronto 53-30 in the second half to seal the deal. Toronto struggled mightily inside against the Mystics, getting out rebounded 47-26 and allowing Washington to score 52 points in the paint.

That paint advantage could become even more dramatic on Wednesday because Toronto is without Nyara Sabally (calf) and have had Julie Allemand and Maria Conde dealing with injuries of their own. Washington is heading into this game healthy as well as could be.

Speaking of advantages, home court is another thing going Washington’s way. Washington is 12-6 at home while Toronto is just 4-12 away from home. Toronto doesn’t have much to play for with their season pretty much over, but Washington is playing for playoff positioning. Between that and Toronto likely wanting to avoid the franchise’s first 12-game losing streak, Washington has all the motivation in the world to come out with a win.

SITUATIONAL ANGLE of the NIGHT: One other thing to consider. The Tempo played at home and lost to the Fever last night and then has to travel to Washington for tonight's contest. Last night's game was fast paced with both teams getting over 90 points in up and down action in a stadium that was very hot, taking a lot out of the players. In fact, Fever guard Mitchell didn't play the 4th quarter because of being over heated by the conditions.  This will all play against the Tempo here against a well rested Washington team on Wednesday.  

Jim's Play: 624. Washington Mystics (WNBA Game of the Month)

Sunday’s MLB Game of the Week features the Kansas City Royals squaring off against the Los Angeles Angels with starting pitching matchup leaning heavily in Kansas City’s favor.

Royals starter Noah Cameron takes on rookie Ryan Johnson for the Angels. Cameron is currently 6-8 with a 4.45 ERA but has pitched much better than his overall numbers indicate as of late. Heading into his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cameron had pitched 23 innings allowing only one run. This included eight innings of one-run, two-hit ball with nine strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins.

Johnson, on the other hand, is susceptible. He is currently 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Johnson has also given up seven home runs in only 28 2/3 innings at home. Look for Kansas City to have ample opportunity to bounce back after getting shutout by Reid Detmers and the Angels Saturday.

Kansas City also owns the season series against Los Angeles so far this year winning four out of the first five meetings. Friday, the Royals offense exploded for seven runs behind Jac Caglianone, who went 3-4 with a homer and career-high five RBIs.

Taking into account Cameron’s recent stretch of good pitching and Johnson coming into this game with a 6.71 ERA, I will  take Kansas City to win as my  MLB Game of the Week on Sunday.

Jim's Play: 971. Royals

I like Boston to win their game on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates as the starting pitching matchup presents a huge opportunity for them to rebound from Friday’s 8-4 loss.

The biggest edge belongs to Sonny Gray, who will toe the rubber for Boston and enters the game with a record of 14-3, 2.79 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP. Gray has been extremely consistent this year, posting a record of 10-2 with a 2.65 ERA over his last 15 appearances. Gray lasted six innings in his last start against Toronto while allowing only two runs.

The Pirates will counter with Jared Jones, and that is where Boston should massively outslug Pittsburgh. Jones enters Saturday’s game with a record of 2-4 and a 5.03 ERA. The right-hander was lit up by the Mets in his last appearance, giving up eight earned runs on six hits and three walks in only three innings. Jones owns a 6.00 ERA over his last five starts.

Jones has allowed at least three runs in two straight starts after surrendering three runs on four hits and two walks against Milwaukee. Jones will have to contend with Boston’s lineup, which should be able to make him work early and get into Pittsburgh’s bullpen quickly.

Boston lost by four runs on Friday, marking the Sox sixth loss in seven games. However, Boston put up four runs against Pittsburgh and had men on base in the ninth inning. Nick Sogard finished the game 2-for-4 with two RBIs. Masataka Yoshida also drove in a run for Boston on Friday.

Pittsburgh will also be without key offensive contributors Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz, further stacking the matchup against the Pirates.

Both teams have their questionable bullpen matches as neither team’s closer will take the mound. However, I like Gray’s matchup over Jones as Gray owns a 2.79 ERA and Jones was just shelled by the Mets, surrendering eight runs.

Boston should control the pitching matchup on Saturday and hit enough home runs to take two of three from Pittsburgh.

Jim's Play: 929. Red Sox (IL Game of the Month)

I’m taking the UNDER  in Saturday’s Angels-Marlins matchup, primarily because of the starting pitching matchup.

Los Angeles will start Walbert Urena with righty Sandy Alcantara taking the bump for the Marlins.

Urena has quietly developed into one of the Angels’ most reliable starters. The 22-year-old is 6-7 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 93 1/3 innings. He’s also been tough to score against lately; Urena entered his last start with four straight outings of allowing one earned run or fewer, and followed that up by allowing three hits over six scoreless innings against Milwaukee.

Miami has shown an ability to put runners on base, but he works with upper-90s heat and mixing speeds makes Urena hard to square up. He’s been able to hit 100- plus mph with his four-seamer while also utilizing a changeup and sweeper to keep hitters off his fastball. The ability to mix speeds is key against a Marlins lineup that showed Friday it can put up hits but won’t necessarily post big innings.

But honestly, the biggest reason to buy into the Under is Alcantara himself. Across 156 2/3 innings, his full-season line now reads 12-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He has been much better as of late, too. Over his last seven starts, Sandy owns a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Most encouraging about Alcantara is what he has done in each of his last two starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia then came back and tossed six scoreless innings against the Mets. That’s 13 straight scoreless innings, allowing only eight hits and three walks. Following that performance, Alcantara was named NL Player of the Week. Now he gets an Angels offense averaging just 4.3 runs per game and a .701 team OPS. I like Alcantara to give Miami six or seven solid innings while holding Los Angeles to two or three runs of its own.

Miami opened the series with a 4-3 win on Friday, which brought about an encouraging Under signal of its own. The teams mustered just seven runs combined despite Miami posting 12 hits. Marlins stranded 13 baserunners on their way to losing and the starting pitchers on both sides held Los Angeles to just one run over four innings apiece. We get significant upgrades from both starters on Saturday.

The trend I’m envisioning here is Alcantara and Urena stifling both offenses for the first five or six innings, forcing hitters to put up multiple hits if they want to tack on runs. Alcantara has been otherworldly as of late, Urena has given up one earned run or fewer in five consecutive starts and Friday’s game served as evidence Miami can go through long stretches without capitalizing on baserunners.

Jim's Play: 969. Angels/Marlins UNDER (MLB Total of the Week)

The Mets have a legitimate opportunity to knock off the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday as they come in with both a hotter offense and a young starter who has demonstrated the ability to pitch well enough to keep his team in the game.

New York heads into Friday on a three-game winning streak, including a sweep of Cleveland that was highlighted by a 13-6 win Thursday. New York tallied 18 hits in that game, highlighted by a homer from Francisco Lindor and offensive contributions from Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Carson Benge and Luis Torrens. New York should be able to continue that kind of production against a Pittsburgh team that just lost three out of four to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Thornton is a 24-year-old left-hander who has flashed excellent command and run prevention ability during his first taste of major-league action. Mlodzinski, who the Pirates are starting on Friday, has pitched well this season but has bounced around between starting and relieving roles. Expect this pitching matchup to be closer than Pittsburgh’s implied price may indicate.

The Mets younger lineup has been loose at the plate, finding ways to produce runs and get contributions from the whole lineup. Pittsburgh has not been able to do that, which is why they have struggled to find any momentum.

As long as Thornton can give the Mets five competitive innings, their improving offense should get enough opportunities to take control of this game against Mlodzinski and the Pirates bullpen.

Jim's Play: 901. Mets

I'll be taking the Kansas City Royals to win against over the Minnesota Twins here on Thursday. The Royals hold the advantage in starting pitching and better momentum coming in, not to mention they have Bobby Witt Jr. back in the lineup.

Michael Wacha gets the nod for Kansas City and he brings a 3.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into the game. His command and ability to pitch deep into games allows the Royals to feel comfortable knowing they have a reliable starter against a Twins offense that has scored three total runs through two games of this series. Minnesota sends Bailey Ober to the mound and he owns a 4.45 ERA.

The Royals have been impressive in taking the first two games of the series. Tuesday’s game ended with an 8-2 score in Kansas City’s favor, while Wednesday’s matchup was a 2-1 victory. Noah Cameron threw eight innings Wednesday and Kansas City will love that since it didn’t tax their bullpen. Minnesota will look to stop their four-game losing streak on Thursday.

The Royals lineup has been upgraded with the return of Bobby Witt Jr. He had three hits, two RBI and two runs scored on Tuesday, which gives Kansas City the speed and big bat they need leading off the order.

Bailey Ober has the ability to be successful when he is commanding his fastball, but he has been prone to giving up homers in the past. With some of Kansas City’s bats like Witt, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey and the rest of their order able to take him deep, Thursday could be a long day for Ober. Kansas City holds the edge with Wacha on the mound and since they’re playing confident baseball at home, they should win the game and finish the sweep.

Jim's Play: 966. Royals

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are the play to win and cover against the BC Lions on Thursday in Jim Feist’s CFL Game of the Month for July. Winnipeg is favored at home but the line should move north given how much higher-upside they have on both sides of the ball.

Quarterback play is a glaring weakness for the Lions, who will be forced to start inexperienced Kaidon Salter in place of Nathan Rourke (shoulder). Salter is making just his first career CFL start after relieving Chase Brice late last week in Toronto. He’s already at a disadvantage against a Winnipeg defense leading the CFL with 15 sacks and 32 pass knockdowns. BC will also be without offensive lineman Joshua Donovan, which doesn’t bode well for an inexperienced QB under pressure.

Winnipeg will start Dru Brown under center, who torched Toronto last week for 339 yards and a touchdown. Brown now has the benefit of going up against a Lions secondary that has allowed a 73.9% completion percentage, which ranks worst in the CFL. BC also has the worst second-down stop percentage, which should allow Winnipeg to keep drives alive.

Winnipeg also gets the Lions at the right time. The home team is 4-3 overall while BC comes in at 1-5 and has yet to win away from BC Place. Winnipeg has won eight of the past 10 meetings against the Lions, including four straight. Depth will be a factor as well, as the Lions have numerous players on both sides of the ball listed as out. With home field advantage, roster depth and recent dominance in the series, I like Winnipeg in a blowout here on Thursday.  Dru Brown should move the ball consistently against BC injury-riddled defense, while Winnipeg’s pass rush should eat Salter alive.

Jim Feist’s CFL Game of the Month for July: Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Indiana has the highest-scoring offense in the WNBA at 95.5 points per game while making 47.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.1% of their three-point field goal attempts. They come into the break hitting their stride on offense with 108 points against New York and then 123 points against Connecticut. Caitlin Clark is expected to play for Indiana and they also have Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston providing them with multiple reliable scorers.

Best indication of the total being hit was their last game against each other on July 17 when Indiana won 110-107 for a combined 217 points. Clark scored 45 points and had 10 assists. Mitchell added 30 points. Dominique Malone had a great game for Seattle scoring 28 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. That game should show Seattle will provide enough offense to not let Indiana have to hit the total by themselves.

Seattle also struggles inside defensively and they are shorthanded with Ezi Magbegor out and Malonga questionable. That should open up opportunities for Boston inside and could lead to Indiana getting some open looks from three if the Storm cave in towards the basket.

Indiana will be playing at one of the fastest paces in the league while shooting efficiently on offense. Seattle has shown they can score at least 90 points at home. Both teams are coming off of their break so expect another shootout.

Jim's Play: 617. Fever / Storm OVER (Total of the Month)

Atlanta is coming into this series with a 62-43 record while New York sports a 44-62 record. Most people will look at those records and pick Atlanta. Jim Feist isn’t most people, he’s taking New York today as a very small home dog.

Mets rookie Zac Thornton has been lights out through his first four starts. He carries a 1.93 ERA along with a WHIP of just 0.86. Thornton has surrendered only one earned run during his last 19 innings pitched while stranding batters on base over the last two starts for 13 straight frames of scoreless relief. He also presents a first time look against Atlanta, as the young left-hander has yet to face the Braves in his professional career.

Atlanta will start veteran Martin Perez against Thornton. Perez’s 3.38 ERA doesn’t appear too alarming, but the current Mets team has seen success against him posting a batting average of .304 and an oWAR of .369 over 144 career plate appearances. Expect New York to put guys on base and challenge Perez early in this one.

Let’s not forget how this series is even set up. The Mets stayed at home this weekend and blazed through the Dodgers scoring eight runs in their Sunday win. Meanwhile, Atlanta had to go to Baltimore and pitch into extra innings to win a close 3-2 affair before heading to New York for game one of this series. Atlanta gets set to face a well rested rookie pitcher that they have not seen before in just a matter of hours.

The Mets do not need to be the better team across 162 games. They simply need to be the better team tonight and their pitching matchup, familiarity with Perez and series schedule provide them a real chance to win this game.

Jim's Play: 956. Mets (NL East Game of the Month)

Cleveland Guardians have all the tools to take down Minnesota Twins on Wednesday as Jim Feist’s AL Central Game of the Month. Cleveland is coming off Tuesday night’s 5-2 win, Minnesota has dropped four consecutive games heading into Wednesday. Cleveland has also won this season’s rivalry series, jumping to 43-23 against Minnesota since the beginning of 2022.

Slade Cecconi will take the mound for Cleveland against Bailey Ober. Cecconi carries a 4-6 record and 4.55 ERA into the contest, but his efficiency with pitching inside and working deep into games gives Cleveland a chance. Ober is 7-3 with a 4.32 ERA, but he hasn’t been that good to where Minnesota should feel comfortable on the road right now while losing games.

Cleveland boasts the better bullpen as well. Cleveland entered play ranked middle of the pack in starting ERA, but its bullpen had been one of the league’s best. Minnesota’s bullpen has been spotty throughout the year and could be exposed if this game stays close through the first five or six innings. If Cleveland can enter the late innings tied or in the lead, manager Stephen Vogt should have the edge with his group of relievers.

Minnesota has some big-time offensive weapons, but the Twins have routinely left runners on base during this four-game skid. Cleveland pitchers allowed zero walks on Tuesday and can do that again against Minnesota to force the Twins to really cash in on every opportunity. If Cecconi limits free passes and keeps Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers from thriving with extra-base hits, Minnesota could struggle to manufacture big innings once again.

Lastly, Cleveland plays with home-field and situational advantages. Cleveland is above .500 and playing for first place in the AL Central. Minnesota has started to fall back in the wild-card race, and facing Cleveland at Progressive Field is no easy task. Cleveland’s speed on the bases, bullpen and recent form against Minnesota makes Guardians the play on Wednesday.

Jim Feist’s AL Central Game of the Month: Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati was shut out 8-0 in Monday’s opener, but Tuesday features a completely different pitching matchup. Chase Burns (11-1, 2.54 ERA) takes the hill for the Reds against Luis Castillo (3-8, 4.93 ERA) and the Mariners. That is a major starting-pitching advantage in favor of Cincinnati.

Burns has the arm strength to keep Seattle’s biggest bats in line and prevent the Mariners from stringing together another big inning. His strikeouts will be especially important against a Seattle lineup that can over-index on homers. If Burns can attack ahead in counts, the Mariners should have a much tougher time making consistent contact than they did against Cincinnati’s bullpen on Monday.

Castillo has surrendered 92 hits, 48 earned runs and 12 home runs over 87 2/3 innings this season. Opponents are hitting .264 against him and his 1.37 WHIP indicates that Cincinnati should get into scoring position often. The Reds boast speed and power up and down their order with Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer, so they have plenty of ways to attack Castillo.

It’s also worth noting that Cincinnati has a great situational bounce-back angle. The Reds totaled just three hits on Monday, but George Kirby was pitching like an ace and dominating the strike zone. Castillo has been shaky throughout the year, so look for Cincinnati to see a better collection of pitches and put up much better at-bats on Tuesday.

Seattle might not even have their best lineup on hand. Julio Rodríguez departed Monday’s game as a precaution after sustaining an injury, while J.P. Crawford was scratched from the lineup due to wrist soreness. Any setbacks to those two hitters would further juice Burns’ matchup and deplete Seattle’s offense.

Cincinnati has the far better starter, a massive edge against a struggling Castillo and plenty of reason to bounce back after getting shut out on Monday. Look for the Reds to even this series up.

Jim Feist’s Interleague Game of the Week: Cincinnati Reds.

The Argentina vs Spain World Cup final has every opportunity to end Under 2.5 goals. Final matches almost always involve less risk than typical tournament games. Neither team will want to be the first to give up a big chance, so the first half could turn into a showcase of possession, spacing and defending counterattacks over committing numbers forward.

Spain’s defensive prowess throughout the tournament is the most important factor supporting the Under bet. La Roja has conceded just one goal over seven matches, tallying six clean sheets on its way to the final. Spain dominated France defensively in the semifinal, winning 2-0 and demonstrating an ability to dictate play with possession while still protecting its back line. Argentina has Lionel Messi and some other weapons, but this is easily the most complete defense it will have faced in Spain.

Spain’s ability to keep possession will also limit total-scoring chances. When Spain has the ball for extended periods, the opponent is forced to sit back and rarely gets opportunities to mount attacks. Spain has averaged 56% possession in knockout-stage minutes where it has led the game, proving that it can play for draws rather than trying to run up the score.

Argentina has also shown that it can play a waiting game if needed. The reigning champs haven’t panicked during close matches and know how to strike at the right moment. They were behind England for most of the semifinal before scoring twice late to win 2-1, but Spain will likely force them to be more patient. Argentina will know that giving up midfield dominance can open up space for Lamine Yamal and the rest of Spain’ attack to hurt them on the counter.

A low-scoring affair fits with how both teams will approach the matchup tactically. Expect Argentina to sit deep with a compact shape, defend the middle of the field and force Spain to play around the edge of the box. Spain will do everything in its power to limit Messi from receiving the ball in central positions where he is most dangerous. Such a game would have a lot of possession without many scoring chances.

Even the stakes of the match point towards Under betting. Spain is playing for its first World Cup victory since 2010, while Argentina would become the first back-to-back winner since Brazil in 1962 if it triumphs on Sunday. Both teams know what’s on the line and should focus on defensive structure instead of making game-changing mistakes.

Jim's Play: 225627. Argentina/Spain UNDER  (Soccer Total of the Year)

Home court and Indiana’s offensive firepower are the biggest reasons to back the Fever over Golden State on Wednesday. Indiana previously beat the Valkyries 90-82 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, with Caitlin Clark scoring 22 points to go along with nine assists. Clark was instrumental once again as Aliyah Boston dominated the paint with 20 points and 16 rebounds. Indiana lost the rematch in Golden State by only two points, so both games were extremely close with the home team winning each.

Indiana will head into this matchup with plenty of confidence after blowing out Las Vegas 109-75 on Sunday. Kelsey Mitchell paced the Fever with 27 points, while Clark added 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists in just 27 minutes. Golden State will have to guard all three of those players effectively, along with Boston, while also staying out of foul trouble. Indiana showed how tough it can be to stop when it moves the ball like that with Mitchell, Clark and Boston all on the court.

Golden State has been one of the best teams in the WNBA over the last month by going 7-1, but its defensive efficiency is why. The Valkyries rank near the bottom of the league in scoring and assists this season, which is why they are playing their fifth game of a five-game road trip. Indiana is healthier than it has been all season and will be heading back home to start a four-game homestand. This could be asking a lot of Golden State’ defense to limit Indiana in the mid-90s considering how well they shoot the ball.

Indiana is at its best when it can score before Golden State’ defense gets set. Clark can facilitate for teammates in transition, Mitchell can exploit openings with the dribble drive and Boston is a reliable scorer at the rim. Indiana should also have an advantage with bench scoring thanks to Sophie Cunningham, who can stretch the floor if Golden State goes deep into its rotation.

The home-court advantage is just enough for the Fever in my opinion. Indiana should be able to create enough shot opportunities late to avoid losing to the surprising Valkyries and end their winning streak.

Jim's Play: 622. Ind Fever

The Philadelphia Phillies possess the biggest advantage on the mound, which should help them defeat the Detroit Tigers Saturday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the bump for Philly, and the southpaw is currently 10-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 137 strikeouts. Sanchez has been their most reliable starter this season and puts them in great position to hold down a Detroit lineup that has performed inconsistently all season long.

Detroit will start Casey Mize, who has the ability to have a good outing, but Philadelphia’s lineup has more pop. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm give them different ways to put runs on the board and especially damage this Tigers staff if they can force Mize to throw from the stretch early.

Philadelphia also is a good bounce-back candidate considering they lost 10-2 on Friday. Keep in mind this was an outlier score as this game was tied going into the middle innings before Detroit exploded for eight runs against Phillies relievers. Sanchez should be able to go deep into this game and lessen bullpen fatigue, so look for improvements from Philadelphia Saturday.

The Phillies have been the better team all season long at 52-43 compared to Detroit at 43-50. I'll be taking the Phillies to bounce back here on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 977. Phillies

The Phillies and Reds should hit enough home runs on Thursday to cover the total, and the first reason starts with location. Great American Ball Park is one of baseball’s friendlier parks for power hitters, and the temperatures won’t hold the ball in either. Cincinnati should be in the low- to mid-80s by first pitch.

The pitching staffs are also conducive to hitting the over. Luzardo features solid strikeout stuff (7-4, 3.75 ERA, 125 K), but Singer hasn’t been great (3-8, 5.03 ERA). The right-hander’s profile alone gives Philadelphia a good chance to hit crooked innings with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and a lineup capable of power after Wednesday’s series opener.

But Cincinnati’s offense should offer enough support as well. The Reds smashed five home runs in an 11-5 victory Wednesday.  Cincinnati’s offense put together a five-run fourth inning and even forced Philadelphia to turn to their bullpen early. Tanner Banks coughed up three homers during that inning, so Thursday could unfold similarly if the Reds’ bats are feeling it again.

Philadelphia also has every reason to do their damage as well. The Phillies still scored five runs on Wednesday, with Realmuto and Schwarber each belting homers of their own. Schwarber is pacing the majors with his 32nd long ball of the season, providing enough power potential from Philly’s lineup to explode against Cincinnati.

The over is sitting around 9.5, but the combination of offense, bullpen exposure and park should get us there Thursday.

Jim's Play: 953. Phillies / Reds OVER (NL Total of the Week)

There are three pillars of support for the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the New York Yankees on Wednesday, starting with the starting pitching matchup. Tampa fields the better pitcher in Shane McClanahan (7-5, 3.05 ERA), while the Yankees respond with Gerrit Cole (3-3, 4.01). Cole is the big-name pitcher here but McClanahan has pitched better all season long and the Rays lefty has a power arsenal that should matchup well against New York’s recent inability to make contact.

Speaking of contact, Yankees hitters are struggling mightily right now and that is a huge worry for New York in this spot. The Yankees struck out 17 times in the second consecutive game during Tuesday’s 6-4 loss, and  New York lost 10-of-its-last-12 games. Come Wednesday, Tampa will counter with a steady-handed Rays bullpen that mixes up matchups and protects leads late at home.

Yes, home is where the Rays dominate. Tampa boasts a 53-36 record overall and a 32-13 record at Tropicana Field. New York’s record is solid at 50-41 but not quite enough to discount Tampa’s home-field advantage. 

As dominant as McClanahan can be on the mound, Tampa’s lineup poses enough threat to Coles to make this a competitive game. Tampa owns the better team batting average (.257 to New York’s .234). One key thing to note is Tampa’s top of the lineup, highlighted by Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero. Caminero leads Tampa with 26 home runs, and he and Ben Rice are both threats Baltimore cannot dismiss. Tampa proved that against New York on Tuesday, sweeping the series with contributions from both the stars and bottom of the lineup.

Tampa comes into this game riding high after winning 6-4 against the Yankees on Tuesday. Yandy Diaz and Hunter Feduccia combined for back-to-back homers during a four-run inning in the fourth. Tampa also received impressive bullpen work, with Bryan Baker slamming the door for his 24th save. Tampa has a clear advantage if this game comes down to late-inning bullpen matchups. Pitchers and home-field advantage aside, Tampa just happens to be riding some positive momentum entering this series finale.

Jim's Play: 914. Rays

Jim Feist is riding a nice winning streak, sitting at 7-1 in his last eight Game of the Week plays. He gets right back on the field Tuesday with his AL East Game of the Week on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees.

The Rays are as good of a bounce-back candidate as any. Tampa Bay dropped Monday’s opener 5-1, but that score is not indicative of how the game felt. The Yankees only had three hits in the game, all of which were home runs. New York struck out 17 times. That is not a lineup that attacked Tampa Bay. That is a lineup that put together a few big swings to win a ballgame. Cleanup a couple of mistakes and this could easily flip.

On top of that spot, Tampa Bay still holds the better overall position in the AL East. The Rays are sitting at 52-36, while the Yankees have been fading over the last couple of weeks. New York took Monday’s game, but one victory does not change the season. This Yankees team has been wildly inconsistent and now they turn to Will Warren on the road against a tough division.

Ian Seymour is as live of an arm you want playing with confidence. The rookie is 5-1 on the season, and the Rays have played well in games he’s involved in. Seymour does not have to be spot-on. If he attacks the zone, keeps the Yankees from stacking baserunners, and forces them to actually earn runs instead of waiting for a homer, Tampa Bay should win this game.

The Rays will also have plenty of opportunities to hit. Junior Caminero provides plenty of power in his own right, Yandy Diaz is a high-contact bat with on-base skills, Jonathan Aranda can drive in runs, and Chandler Simpson is hitting to all fields on a nine-game hitting streak. Tampa has the type of lineup that can press Warren early and often from the first inning through the heart of the lineup.

It’s a classic bounce-back spot for Jim Feist. The Rays play at home, own the better record in their division, and Monday’s game feels more like an outlier based on power than New York having an answer for Tampa Bay. Look for Tampa Bay to load the bases and score freely to cash Jim’s AL East Game of the Week.

Jim's Play: 964. Rays (AL East Game of the Week)

Detroit Tigers are in terrific shape for Sunday’s series finale against the Texas Rangers, and it starts with their starter. Casey Mize gives Detroit the advantage in starting pitching against Kumar Rocker and should calm this Rangers offense after they got shut out Saturday.

Mize comes into this start at 3-5 with a 2.63 ERA and 68 strikeouts. Rocker, on the other hand, is just 2-6 with a 3.83 ERA and 70 strikeouts. Rocker has swing and miss stuff, but Mize has been better at run prevention and that is what matters more in a series finale.

Mize has also had success against this Texas lineup in the past, too. He matches up well on paper here and enters Sunday with the type of arsenal needed to quiet down a Rangers offense that failed to record an out Saturday. Detroit’s pitching staff dominated Texas in the Rangers last outing, pitching a 3-0 shutout, and should feed off that going into game three.

Detroit’s offense doesn’t need to come out blistering hot to win this game. Riley Greene’s homer Saturday was all they really needed, but as long as Tigers hitters continue to pepper timely swings against Rocker, they should win this game.

Plays like Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Colt Keith, and Spencer Torkelson were all big for Detroit Saturday, and they just need to continue to do that on Sunday. Texas has its swings against Mize, but Tigers have the formula for another low-scoring victory if he pitches to his standards.

This series is tied up 1-1, Detroit won Game 2 convincingly, and Mize is simply the more trusted starter here. If he gives Detroit five or six innings, the Tigers have a blueprint to win close games and should take another on Sunday.

Jim's Play: 967. Tigers

San Francisco Giants pitching has the edge in Saturday’s series opener, and that’s where we’ll start our Giants vs. Rockies prediction. Robbie Ray (7-6, 3.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 95.2 IP, 82 K, 74 hits allowed) takes the mound for San Francisco while Colorado counters with Tomoyuki Sugano (8-4, 4.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 84.1 IP, 48 K, 88 hits allowed, 16 HR allowed). Ray has the better run prevention profile between the two starters, plus more strikeout upside, while allowing far less contact than Sugano this season.

Colorado beat up the Giants 15-3 in Friday’s series opener, but that surprisingly helps San Francisco in our betting analysis. Colorado hit the Giants pitching staff hard with 15 runs on 18 hits, while Jake McCarthy had two homers and six RBIs in the contest. Teams just don’t hit like that two days in a row, especially against a veteran left-hander like Ray.

Colorado’s pitching staff is also atrocious as a unit. Their 5.58 team ERA allowed isn’t good enough, while opponents hit an MLB-high .287 against the Rockies’ pitchers. Expect San Francisco to answer offensively while at Coors Field since Sugano doesn’t strike many hitters out and has allowed numerous homers this season. Giants hitters should be able to capitalize on Sugano’s weaknesses. 

Jim's Play: 907. Giants  (NL West Game of the Week) 

Jim Feist puts his AL Central Game of the Week cash on Friday night with the Cleveland Guardians taking on the Chicago White Sox. This is a prime spot to get divisional action going when you have momentum, pitching and home field all aligning on one side of the board.

Chicago gets Anthony Kay on the mound who is 6-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 65 strikeouts, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams who is 9-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 117 strikeouts. That is your first big strike. Williams has the better arm, the bigger strikeout guy and the starter more capable of navigating a big divisional tilt.

The reason to like Cleveland even more than the talent advantage up top has to do with Thursday night’s emotional roller coaster. The Guardians fell behind 5-2, never gave up and then watched Brayan Rocchio blast a two-run walk-off homer in the ninth to stun Chicago 6-5. Cleveland did not just steal a win. The Guardians landed a divisional haymaker that reels themselves right back into the AL Central race.

Cleveland comes home right away to take on the White Sox with Williams taking the mound on Friday. If you have the better starting pitcher in this kind of situation you absolutely want to get your Game of the Week roll going with that matchup up top. Williams features swing-and-miss stuff, he can work out of jams and his 117 strikeouts prove he has the power fastball to silence rallies without having to be perfect behind him. In a game like this, that strikeout advantage is huge.

Kay has been solid for Chicago, but he also carries a 4.50 ERA which tells you he can be exploited. The Guardians lineup does not have to blow up on Friday. Cleveland just has to work counts, manufacture traffic and force Kay to make pitches with runners in scoring position. After bouncing back to win late Thursday, this Cleveland clubhouse has zero doubt they can win a game in the late innings if it’s close.

Chicago’s bullpen and mindset also works against them in this spot. They had the lead on Thursday and couldn’t close it out. Losing like that can haunt a club, especially when the loss comes against a division foe on the road.  

This game screams “Cash” to me on Friday. Cleveland has the better starter, home-field advantage, walk-off win and much stronger spot to win a big AL Central showdown. Expect Williams to set the tone, Cleveland to pressure Kay and cash Jim Feist’s AL Central Game of the Week.

Jim's Play: 966. Guardians (AL Central Game of the Week

Jim Feist’s N.L. Game of the Month is on the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and this is the kind of spot where the better team, the better lineup, and the better home-field setup all point in one direction.

Ashcraft (7-3, 3.07 ERA, 107 strikeouts) gets the call for Pittsburgh while Philadelphia rolls with Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.58 ERA, 82 strikeouts). Give Pittsburgh a slight edge on the mound as Ashcraft sports the better numbers on the surface, but do not let that fool you. Nola is a veteran starting on home soil, and this is prime territory for him to roll with the punches and deliver a quality start for his team.

Philadelphia holds the biggest advantage with its offense. Power abounds in Philly, this lineup has experience and countless ways to produce against Pittsburgh. Kyle Schwarber is finding his groove again and ripping the ball in his favorite ballpark, and this lineup can explode at any moment when it’s at full strength in Citizens Bank Park. 

The Pirates have had their moments this season playing tough baseball, but none of that matters when you step into Philadelphia as the visitors. Pittsburgh is rolling with Ashcraft who has exceeded expectations this season, but now he has to go toe-to-toe with a lineup that can make you pay at any moment while struggling in a hostile environment. Yes, the Pirates have talent, but so does Philadelphia and Philadelphia has home-field advantage.

Sure, Nola has struggled to find it this season, but he does not have to be great for Philadelphia to win this game. Stick with Nola as he competes and keeps the game within reach for Philadelphia’s bats and bullpen to capitalize. This game screams bounce-back, trust-the-veteran recipe. Nola has started this kind of game before and knows how to handle it. Plus, this offense can alleviate some of the stress.

Jim's Play: 952. Phillies (NL Game of the Month)

Jim Feist has our New York Yankees sitting in prime Friday bounce-back position against the Boston Red Sox and Friday nights are the type of game where the better team can respond. New York will start Will Warren (7-2, 3.45, 84 K) while Boston counter with Payton Tolle (3-5, 3.08, 62 K). Tolle has performed well enough to keep Boston in games but Warren provides a very live arm for New York and overall they still have the bigger club edge.

Why do I like the Yankees here? Thursday’s game was more about careless errors than Boston taking control of the matchup. New York gave up too many extra opportunities and that is the type of thing a good team can overcome the following day. When a superior team loses due to unnecessary damage instead of being outplayed, that usually opens up an excellent bounce-back scenario for the very next game.

The Yankees also still possess the better overall lineup and power profile heading into this series. Over the course of the season they have been the more powerful offense and that matters when you play at Fenway and one or two home runs can change the game. If New York plays cleaner defense and puts normal pressure on Boston’ starters, this series opener plays very differently.

Warren also allows the Yankees a chance to set the tone early. He does not have to be brilliant, just effective in keeping Boston off the board the way New York did on Thursday. If Warren pitches to form and the Yankees defense their typical game behind him, New York should find themselves in position to take the lead and make Boston play catch up.

This is the exact type of spot Jim Feist loves on Friday nights. New York is the better team, they have far superior season-long numbers, and they just played in a game that was lost on mistakes rather than facing a better matchup. All of the above is why I feel comfortable laying the juice with New York here.

Jim's Play: 917. Yankees   (AL Game of the Month)

Seattle makes sense for a Jim Feist-style Interleague Game of the Month selection based on simply needing to do what they just did on Tuesday: win a close game with pitching and some big hits. They did that, winning the opener 3-2, and Wednesday features Bryan Woo going for Seattle against Braxton Ashcraft. Ashcraft’s 3.18 ERA suggests this won’t be a laugher, and Woo’s 0-5 record and 5.93 ERA in eight road starts is the lone worry. But Woo was excellent in his last start, bouncing back with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts against the Orioles, so basically Seattle needs him to be more like that than the Woo we saw across his last two starts on the road.

Seattle has the edge even if you look past Woo, though. The Mariners with the advantage in team ERA (3.59 to Pittsburgh’s 4.16), and Seattle is listed as 41-39 versus Pittsburgh’s 39-40 heading into Wednesday’s game. That’s notable because if Ashcraft matches Woo pitch-for-pitch early on, Seattle has the profile of the club that should win if it’s a lower-scoring affair. Seattle also has 100 home runs to Pittsburgh’s 94, so they have just a touch more pop in their lineup than Pittsburgh, which is key when playing in a home ballpark where one swing can change the complexion of any matchup.

Speaking of Seattle’s lineup, it got a jolt with Randy Arozarena being activated from the injured list. Arozarena entered Wednesday hitting .291 with seven homers, 33 RBIs and 19 steals, and is now another bat to protect Cal Raleigh. Seattle also got exactly what they wanted from their bats in the opener, with Cal Raleigh and Cole Young driving in runs to secure the win, and are riding a two-game winning streak into Wednesday. Pittsburgh, conversely, does not have Konnor Griffin on their active roster due to an injury issue, though he only started a rehab assignment on Wednesday,  he was placed on the injured list due to an elbow/forearm injury. Couple that with Seattle boasting the better overall pitching staff, healthier lineup heading into this one and having already won Game 1 for momentum and you have reasons why they should get the win in game 2.

Jim's Play: 925. Mariners (IL Game of the Month)

Philadelphia is trending as one of my best run-line bets because this projects as an ace-vs.-weak-starter matchup. Zack Wheeler will start for Philly, and Wheeler owns a 6-1 record with a sterling 2.01 ERA entering Sunday’s matchup. New York’s probable starter was listed as TBD earlier Sunday, but several same-day reports had the Mets settling on David Peterson, and Peterson owns a 2026 line of 3-5 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. That’s a sizable mismatch on the mound, and when you’re laying -1.5 runs, that’s exactly the type of starting pitching advantage you want because it allows Philadelphia to potentially build a cushion instead of having to merely hang around late in a coin-flip matchup.

Speaking of Wheeler, he enters Sunday feeling pretty good about himself too. During his last start against Miami on Saturday, Wheeler threw six scoreless innings while striking out nine. When he’s on like that, he can navigate the first six-plus innings by himself, and that reduces the Phillies’ burden to have to win a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. That’s important for a run-line wager because overpowering starting pitching is one of the easiest ways to create multi-run cushions.

Philadelphia’s lineup is another reason to back the Phillies with extra run value. This series against the Mets was highlighted by a 15-3 pounding Saturday, where Kyle Schwarber went deep three times and Bryce Harper hit for the cycle. Schwarber’s big day moved him to the MLB lead with 28 homers, but the Phillies also did almost all of their damage in the first three innings. They hung 10 runs on Freddy Peralta before the game ever got out of breath, so Philadelphia’s Saturday performance is big going into Sunday for two reasons: It shows Philly’s hitters are rolling right now and it means that New York will head into the finale having sent four relievers to the mound who just got lit up. Either way, New York’s chances of rallying just took a dip.

For all those reasons, the Phillies are a solid play to cover the run line. 

Wheeler should provide Philly with an early advantage, Peterson’s season stats indicate the Phillies should generate offense and this lineup is coming off a game where it did some serious damage from top-to-bottom. Throw that all together and Philadelphia has a good recipe for not just winning, but covering as run-line favorites.

Jim's Play: 958. Phillies -1.5 Runs 

If we’re talking about Jim Feist’ s AL West Game of the Month designation here, then Oakland makes their pitch with the game situation slot and not just the bare starter ERA battle. The Angels are starting Jose Soriano , who is 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA, and Oakland responds with rookie southpaw Gage Jump (2-1, 3.09). That’s just the surface though as Oakland comes into this game at 31-34 and second in the AL West, while the Angels sit at 25-41 overall and 12-23 on the road. Los Angeles is also not quite as powerful a club as Oakland, who has scored 4.6 RPG with a .252 average and 95 homers, compared with Anaheim at 4.5 RPG, a .237 team batting average and 83 long balls. This matters when you consider that despite Soriano being the ace in this starter matchup, the Athletics boast a better run support profile behind hitters like Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers.

Oakland also holds the advantage when you examine handedness splits. The Angels are just 7-12 against southpaws on the hill this season, so this is a nice underlying statistic for Jump.  Sure, Soriano has the better ERA and overall surface stats, but the betting public is telling us two very important things with today's line: Oakland’ s home field advantage and better lineup offsets their pitching disadvantage, and the Angels simply aren’t as good of a team right now. They also lost 8-1 at Arizona yesterday, so expect Oakland to take care of business here in a home opener spot against a travel-weary AL West foe. If Jump can hold the Angels to five solid innings, this number is very much there for the taking.

Jim's Play: 914. Athletics (AL West Game of the Month)

Portland has the easier matchup straight off the bat. Seattle comes into this game just 3-12 overall, 1-6 on the road, 0-7 against teams from the Western Conference and sporting a six-game road losing streak. The Fire aren’t playing their best basketball by any means at 5-5 at home at the Moda Center, but Portland has still been the better offensive team through half of the season, shooting 44.9% from the field for 81.5 points per game compared with Seattle’s 40.5% and 76.4 points per contest.

The biggest reason to take Portland however might just be Seattle’s lack of offensive efficiency. The Storm are 2-8 in their last 10 games, averaging just 74.8 points per game. Portland in that span is 4-6 and averaging 78.6 points. Carla Leite has been a particularly efficient scorer for the Fire in recent weeks, dropping 13.2 points per game in Seattle’s last 10, while Emily Engstler has provided Portland offense around the rim, posting 9.2 points and two blocks per game. If the Fire play a cleaner game than they did on Monday, they should have control of the game against a Seattle offense that has struggled mightily of late.

Players to watch who are out due to injury also tilt the line a bit more towards Portland. Ezi Magbegor is out for Seattle with a foot injury and Jordan Horston is questionable, while the Fire will only be without Karlie Samuelson. Seattle loses a lot of frontcourt versatility without Magbegor, who averaged 13.7 points and 3.8 rebounds before getting injured. This matters against Portland, who needs easier looks from the field after getting embarrassed on Monday against Minnesota. This is a game the Fire should win to get back on track.

Jim's Play: 606. Portland Fire

We’ll start with pitching. Washington will counter with lefty Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46 ERA), who is pitching on three days rest as Kansas City tabs Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.58). Those ERAs don’t jump off the page, but look closer at how each has pitched recently. Griffin has given up one or zero earned runs in three of his past four starts. Washington has gone 10-4 in those games started by Griffin this season. Wacha has a 7.13 ERA over his last three starts, including six losses over his last six outings. Advantage Nationals if you’re looking for which team has the more consistent recent arm.

Team form is another reason to lean Washington here. They won Monday’s opener 7-3, are winners of three straight and have won seven of their last 10 games. Monday’s victory moved Washington back above .500 at 38-35 for the first time since 2019. Kansas City has lost five of six and finds itself near the bottom of the AL Central standings. When you have a series like this, where one team is gaining confidence while the other is trying to stop a skid, it usually spills over to game two.

Washington also has the slight edge with the bat. Dylan Crews is hitting in all five games this month and had a three-run homer on Monday. Luis Garcia Jr. drove in two runs during the big inning Washington scored in the opener. James Wood is also in the middle of a hot June, so the Nationals have more than one intimidating bat in their lineup. Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone, but the Royals just haven’t gotten enough offense around those guys recently and it’s been a big reason why they’re struggling to win series.

If you blend those three things together you have Washington boasting the better recent starter, the more potent offense and the overall better momentum coming into game two. Add in another solid start from Griffin and the Nationals should find themselves in a position to win the game.

Jim's Play: 922. Nationals 

Here's why Vegas actually is capable of winning Game 6: There is life here. This is not dead team walking territory. The Golden Knights are back home at T-Mobile Arena on Sunday with the series at 3-2 in favor of Carolina, and they already showed us in this Final they can beat Carolina in this building when they won Game 3 in double overtime. Vegas was also not completely crushed in Game 5. They got the first goal, got both goals from Pavel Dorofeyev, got two assists from Jack Eichel and John Tortorella was openly lobbying for Game 7 back in Raleigh after this series concluded, which syncs up with reporting that the room wasn’t panicking because they still had a calm veteran confidence built around a group that features 12 players who were on the 2023 Cup team. 

Experienced teams with recent championship experience matter in closeout games, especially against a Carolina team that now has the added pressure of closing Vegas out. Vegas also technically has the goalie edge with stability, strangely enough, because Tortorella is clearly and publicly standing by Carter Hart for the bounce-back effort while Carolina still has questions about their goaltending situation with Frederik Andersen becoming available after sitting out of Games 4 and 5 and Brandon Bussey having started the last two. 

The cleanest Vegas angle may simply be: Don’t take penalties after Carolina got two power-play goals from Andrei Svechnikov in Game 5, let Eichel drive the offense and trust that a battle-tested home team facing elimination will play tight enough defensively to at least force one more game. Not having William Karlsson hurts, but Vegas can lean on next-man-up in that department too. But this is a must-win situation for Vegas with championship experience on its side and there’s a very real path to one-goal win game plan for the Golden Knights.

Jim's Play: 22. Golden Knights (NHL Game of the Year)

Washington has been one of baseball’s better run-producing clubs all year (scoring around 5.33 runs per game), while San Francisco’ hasn’t gotten enough credit for how hot its lineup has been over its last month of games (.277/.331/.480 with a 126 wRC+). Those are both good recipes for offensive contributions from both sides.

The pitching matchup backs up that thought process too. Washington is trotting out Andrew Alvarez while San Francisco will start Adrian Houser, who arrives for his start at 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA. Houser has been hittable all year and the Nationals’ lineup has enough contact, speed and power across the board with C.J. Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews to manufacture traffic early and often.

The Giants should be able to contribute because their lineup has lately while Washington is trusting a less-proven starter. San Francisco bats like Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge have caught fire at the right time, and if Alvarez can’t go deep Nationals’ relievers will be forced to cover innings in an opponent’s ballpark.

Lastly, let’s talk late-game situation as San Francisco’s bullpen imploded Monday night, exiting the game with a nine-run lead in the ninth. San Francisco’s bullpen owns an 8.67 ERA in June and doesn’t have a dependable closer yet. If either Alvarez or Houser has to exit the game with men on base or the game stays competitive late, both offenses should receive opportunities to tack on runs.

Jim's Play: 961. Nationals/Giants OVER (NL Total of the Month)

Kansas City Royals fans were able to exhale Saturday after Carter Jensen tied the game and Bobby Witt Jr. singled in a run to complete the Royals comeback against the Minnesota Twins. The Royals win guarantees them at least a split in this weekend series and puts Kansas City in good position to finish the weekend on a high note with Sunday’s series finale.

Pitching matches up well for the Royals in this one as Noah Cameron will take the hill against Connor Prielipp. Cameron will make this start for Kansas City after posting a 2-4 record with a 4.22 ERA and 56 strikeouts. Minnesota’s Connor Prielipp, meanwhile, owns a 2-3 record with a 5.26 ERA, which gives the Royals the edge in this battle of current starters. Cameron also posted a season-high eight strikeouts in his last outing while recording three quality starts over his last four starts overall, so he should have a good chance to limit Minnesota in the first half of this game.

Minnesota simply couldn’t finish games against the Royals this series and Saturday was no exception as the Twins watched Joe Ryan surrender the lead after pitching six strong innings. If the Royals can continue to keep pressure on Prielipp early with another solid start from Cameron, Kansas City has shown they have the late-game confidence to finish.

Placing pressure on Prielipp early starts with getting Bobby Witt Jr. into the lineup early. If Witt and Jensen can manufacture traffic in the Royals lineup, Kansas City can make Minnesota Twins chase the game and put their bullpen on the brink after it failed to close Saturday.

Jim's Play: 971. Royals (AL Central Game of the Week)

There is intrigue behind Jim Feist’s MLB May Game of the Month on the Colorado Rockies defeating the San Francisco Giants on Saturday due to momentum swings and price value. While Colorado is still a clear underdog type team, this game is closer than the public may realize. The Giants are only a small road favorite and the pitching matchup, Adrian Houser vs. Ryan Feltner, sets up well for Colorado at Coors Field.

Even bigger than the matchup value is that Colorado is coming off a massive 8-6 walk-off victory over San Francisco on Friday. The Rockies were losing 6-3 entering the ninth inning before hitting four runs in the bottom half, highlighted by Hunter Goodman’s game-tying three-run homer and Ezequiel Tovar’s walk-off blast, his second homer of the night. That feels like the type of win that completely changes the energy of this series at Coors Field.

The Giants are susceptible as favorites because they just witnessed their bullpen implode in game one. San Francisco had this one well within their grasp and still could not close it out due to Caleb Kilian surrendering the late damage. For a Giants team that has been awful on the road and sits below .500, that loss is tough to stomach. San Francisco has also dealt with roster changes and rotation instability to begin the year, including Tyler Mahle hitting the injured list with a hamstring strain.

Colorado’s offense is why this game could go off in the Rockies’ favor. Tovar has stayed hot, Goodman posted the biggest hit of the game on Friday and the Rockies had five different players record two hits in the opener. Those are recipes for success at Coors Field because Colorado can feast on one good swing to spark a rally. If Colorado puts runners in scoring position early against Houser and forces San Francisco to burn through their bullpen again, I’ll take Colorado’s team late.

For a GOM play, it’s that simple. Colorado is at home with their biggest win of the season so far, San Francisco just surrendered a ninth-inning lead in the series opener, and you can play Colorado as an underdog in a game that is closer than both teams’ records would indicate.

Jim's Play: 960. Rockies (MLB Game of the Month)

This Western Conference Finals matchup is heading back to San Antonio for Game 6 on Thursday. Despite entering this contest down 3-2 in the series, the Spurs are getting considered slight favorites at home in a must-win situation. Home court advantage, desperation and crowd atmosphere will all play into this game at the Frost Bank Center.

Speaking of crowd atmosphere, Wembanyama should be motivated after an inefficient game in Game 5. The French phenom went just 4-For-15 from the floor and finished with 20 points as Oklahoma City cruised to a 127-114 victory. Wembanyama bounced back nicely from a poor Game 3 to dominate Game 4 and help the Spurs dismantle the Thunder, 103-82. San Antonio held OKC to just 33% shooting from the floor and 6-For-33 from three, and that blueprint should carry over into Game 6 at home.

San Antonio has the advantage when it comes to health and readiness heading into Game 6. Oklahoma City is still monitoring Jalen Williams and his hamstring injury, and Ajay Mitchell remains out. The Spurs’ Game 6 injury report listed “no injuries,” which is huge late in such a physical playoff series.

Over their last three games, the Spurs have only shot 29.5% from downtown. However, San Antonio has every reason to believe those triples will start falling at home. If players like De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie can space the floor for Wembanyama, the Spurs offense should operate much more smoothly than it did in Game 5.

Oklahoma City has the opportunity to close out this series on Thursday. It’s never easy to do that in San Antonio, though. If Bruce Brown and Co. can replicate Game 4’s defensive success, limit easy scoring opportunities for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and get more aggression from Wembanyama, the Spurs have a better chance of forcing Game 7 than OKC does at extending the series.

I'll be taking the Spurs on the Money line here on Thursday.

Jim's Play: 564. Spurs (Money Line)

Our NBA East Finals Game of the Year on the New York Knicks to win against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday begins with series command. The Knicks lead the East Finals 3-0. They are one victory away from their first NBA Finals trip since 1999. New York has won 10 playoff games in a row. Game 3 was another definitive win, a 121-108 victory in Cleveland where the Knicks never let the Cavaliers get comfortable.

The biggest reason to fade Cleveland here is balance. Jalen Brunson is still the closer, posting 30 points in Game 3, but the Knicks are not just giving the ball to him late. Mikal Bridges had 22, OG Anunoby had 21, Karl- Anthony Towns and Josh Hart kept rolling on both ends and Landry Shamet provided New York with another huge bench boost. This depth has killed Cleveland in this series. The Cavaliers can stack the floor against Brunson, but New York has too many other winners to worry about offensively and defensively.

What hurts Cleveland the most is how uneven its offense has been throughout the game. Cleveland got 24 points from Evan Mobley, 23 from Donovan Mitchell and 19 from James Harden, but turnovers, poor free throw shooting and even worse three-point shooting sunk them. Harden has also faced heavy scrutiny after yet another late-game playoff collapse. If Cleveland’s guards are not hitting shots at a high level, the Cavs simply do not have enough to work with against a Knicks team that is playing this well.

Keep in mind that the Knicks have also earned the mental advantage. They erased a gigantic deficit in Game 1, took care of business in Game 2 and then went into Cleveland and won Game 3 by more than a basket. The Knicks have not just been riding home court momentum. Their defense, rebounding, shot-making and clutch performance has all translated on the road. Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson even had words of respect for how New York avoided complacency on this historic run.

At the end of the day, our Game of the Year angle is simple: the Knicks are hotter, deeper, tougher and just overall better than Cleveland. Cleveland is fighting for its life here, but the Knicks have already won this matchup three different ways. If Brunson continues to control the game flow, Towns and Bridges continue to attack the rim and stretch the floor, and Anunoby keeps thriving on both ends of the floor, the Knicks have too much strength to fall here.

Jim's Play: 557. Knicks (NBA East Finals Game of the Year)

The biggest thing trending in San Antonio Spurs favor right now is the series shift. San Antonio did its job stealing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, and now the series is tied 1-1 as we head back to the Frost Bank Center. Home floor advantage matters, especially for a young Spurs team looking to feed off the energy of the crowd after splitting the first two games on the road.

San Antonio’s biggest reason to like themselves still starts in Victor Wembanyama. In Game 1, Wembanyama exploded for 41 points and 24 rebounds in San Antonio’s double-overtime victory. Oklahoma City figured some things out defensively in Game 2 and Wemby finished with more reasonable stats, but San Antonio will have opportunities in Game 3 to adjust as well. Expect San Antonio to get Wemby easier looks, move him around the floor more, and make the Thunder defend without grabbing, holding, or putting multiple defenders in the paint.

San Antonio also gets the emotional advantage after Game 2 ended the way it did. There has been plenty of chatter about how Oklahoma City defended Wembanyama and the Spurs’ guards throughout the game, and that narrative can work in San Antonio’s favor if they feel the whistle at home. If Wemby can get to the foul line more frequently and Oklahoma City can’t be as physical with him on the perimeter away from the ball, Spurs’ offense is much easier to manage.

The injury report swings both ways, as Spurs guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are questionable to play in Game 3 while Oklahoma City guard Jalen Williams is also questionable after leaving Game 2 early with a hamstring injury. If Williams is limited or ruled out, that takes one of OKC’s best two-way players off the floor and puts even more pressure on Shai Gilgeous- Alexander to create offense.

San Antonio’s game plan is fairly simple: take care of the basketball, get Wembanyama involved early, limit OKC on the offensive glass, and force the Thunder to play in the half court. If San Antonio can eliminate the live-ball turnovers that led to so many Oklahoma City buckets in Game 2, the Spurs have enough size, shot creation, and home court atmosphere to pull away late.

Jim's Play: 552. Spurs (Money Line)  

Take: 914. Angels 

Opening with the starting pitching advantage, the Los Angeles Angels have Jose Soriano taking the mound. Soriano has been Los Angeles’ most dependable starter thus far and comes into Thursday at 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 67 strikeouts. Oakland will send Luis Severino to the mound who is currently at 2-5 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, so the Angels should have the advantage with a cleaner arm and chance to control the first half of the matchup.

A powerful Angels bounce-back angle comes from Wednesday’ loss. The Angels had this one late until Oakland tied it in the ninth and came away with the win in extras, yet Los Angeles proved they could muster offense against this A’s pitching staff. Los Angeles suffered a tough loss in that one, but a short turnaround at home with their best starter can be a huge motivating factor heading into this contest.

Soriano is going to be huge here. If he attacks the strike zone early, Oakland will have a difficult time piecing together the late-game offense they were able to muster yesterday. Los Angeles can take advantage of Severino’s high WHIP by staying patient at the plate and working him into hitters counts.

Yeah, the Angels are terrible at 17-33, but they have the pitching advantage in this matchup. If Soriano can give them six solid innings and they capitalize on a couple of early opportunities against Severino, this game is theirs to win and pick up Thursday’s series finale after Wednesday’s disappointment.

Jim's Play: 914. Angels 

Opening up with the adjustment angle as the reason why San Antonio and Oklahoma City UNDER the total feels incredibly logical after Game 1 happened. Sure, the game ended with a final score of 122-115 Spurs in double overtime, but regulation play was nothing like a slugfest track meet. The sky-high total actually owes more to two extended periods than it does two teams running the scoreboard up.

Victor Wembanyama had 41 points and 24 rebounds, but expecting San Antonio to put up numbers like that on the road just two nights later seems like a stretch.

The Thunder should have defensive adjustments ready to go as well. OKC is already down 1-0 in the series and are surely not going to let Wemby be this effective again without some sort of resistance. More paint attention, earlier help, and forcing San Antonio’s role players to beat them is what you can probably expect from Oklahoma City. Slow down possessions, more half-court offense, and limiting early-clock buckets is the usual result.

Adding injury reports into the mix definitely benefits the UNDER crowd too. De’Aaron Fox is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury and may not have 100 percent of his speed back should he play. San Antonio is losing one of their top tempo-pushers and creators downhill if Fox sits or is limited. The Spurs did get stellar Game 1 production from Dylan Harper, but expecting that type of production from a rookie guard in back-to-back road playoff games is inviting turnovers, late-clock shots, and long offensive stretches with no buckets.

Not to mention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at his absolute best when he’s able to control the pace of play and get to his favorite areas of the floor: the midrange where he can draw fouls. OKC is not required to have a wild game to secure a Game 2 victory. They simply need to play with better possession quality, smart shot selection, and avoid unraveling like they did down the stretch in Game 1.

The best way to UNDER hit on Wednesday is straightforward: Oklahoma City makes defensive adjustments to limit San Antonio’s second chance opportunities. The Spurs come back down after an emotionally and possibly physically draining double-overtime win on the road. Both teams operate from the half-court more frequently than not. As long as this game can stay out of overtime, the total has a great chance of hitting.

Jim's Play : 547. Spurs/Thunder UNDER 

Opening the case for Detroit begins with home court. The series stands tied at 2-2, so Game 5 returns to Detroit where the Pistons have successfully covered the floor twice in this series. The Pistons also should enjoy a significant bounce-back factor heading into Game 5. Detroit fell in Cleveland 112-103, but that contest swung on a massive second-half outburst by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers wing scored 43 points on 39 points after the break. Cleveland also got a major free-throw discrepancy, as Mitchell alone attempted more free throws than the entire Pistons team. Expecting that to happen again, especially at Little Caesars Arena, would be folly.

Arguably the biggest reason to back Detroit on Wednesday though is Cade Cunningham. Detroit has relied on their rookie all postseason and at home I trust him to control the tempo of this game. Get downhill, attack the rim, make Cleveland’s guards work, and allow Detroit’s other weapons to beat you.

Detroit does not need to blow Cleveland out to cover the spread. The Pistons merely need to win the possession game, avoid fouling, and limit the Cavs easy transition baskets.

Yes the Cavaliers still have Donovan Mitchell and he has been incredible, but Cleveland has been forcing him to do way too much for far too long. Mitchell has scored over 27.5 points in each of the last three games and against Detroit’s defense Cleveland has been far too Mitchell-heavy offensively. Detroit making him work for his shots and getting contributions from elsewhere on the road gives them the better cover profile.

We are set for the swing game of the series and Detroit has the favorable setup. Home floor, coming off a disappointing loss in which they were blown out, a short spread, and a defensive identity that attacks the basket without fouling and forcing opponents into jumpers. If Cunningham can dictate pace and Detroit keeps Mitchell away from the charity stripe, Detroit should cover with a nice chance to win outright as well.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

The first reason I think New York beats Philadelphia on Sunday is because of the series itself. The Knicks lead 3-0 after another Game 3 win at Philadelphia, 108-94, and they’ve been the tougher, deeper, more balanced and connected team through the first three games. Jalen Brunson had another stellar performance with 33 points and nine assists, and New York kept answering every Philadelphia surge.

Depth and toughness have been New York’s biggest advantages through three games. The Knicks have won the battle on the glass and physically they’ve been tougher. New York also hasn’t had everything go perfectly to win games. OG Anunoby sat out Game 3 with a hamstring strain, but New York still won by 14 on Philly’s home floor. Landry Shamet gave New York a solid lift off the bench and Miles McBride stepped up and helped eat minutes while still continuing to receive solid two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart.

Brunson is why I think New York can close this series now, too. Philly has really not had an answer for him when the game is on the line, and when Brunson gets downhill it forces the Sixers into rotation after rotation defensively. That leads to offensive rebounds, corner threes and easy buckets for the Knicks’ role players. When playing a closeout game, the team with the best half-court creator typically has the advantage, and New York is the team with the best half-court creator.

Philadelphia’s biggest problem is they still do not have Joel Embiid fully right. Embiid came back for Game 3 after sitting out Game 2, but he’s still dealing with hip and ankle problems and we’ve seen his mobility affected. He’s probable for Game 4, but if Embiid can’t dominate the glass and protect the rim like he usually does the Sixers are forced to rely on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George creating offense and making shots. We’ve seen how well that formula can work against this Knicks team.

I really think the Knicks just need to avoid falling into that dreaded closeout-game-on-the-road slow start. If New York can match Philly’s energy early on, stay competitive on the boards and let Brunson run the late-clock offense they should cruise. The Sixers will fight you for maybe a half, but New York’s defense, depth and late-game execution should be enough to wear Philly down.

Jim's Play: 505. Knicks

The Philadelphia 76ers to win and cover Friday night is first and foremost built on desperation. Philadelphia enters Game 3 down 0-2 in the series knowing that this is essentially a must-win situation at home. Nobody wants to go down 3-0 in any series, let alone the playoffs, and the Sixers should be playing with the highest of energies now that we head to Philadelphia. Not to mention, the market has shifted enough to put this game into winnable territory with Philadelphia as a small favorite. 

Philadelphia largely showed that progression in Game 2 already. They were getting destroyed in Game 1 before showing up ready to play Wednesday and pushing the Knicks in a 108-102 loss. This tells me the series is tightening up. Philadelphia will not need a complete reinvention to win this game. They need better possessions, fewer turnovers and a better finish down the stretch. New York is holding Philadelphia to 37 turnovers through two games and scoring 48 points off of those turnovers, so if Philly can take care of the ball, they will be in great position to win the game.

Speaking of protection, the injury report opens a real door for Philadelphia here as well. Joel Embiid is questionable to play with both an ankle issue and a hip issue. Obviously if Embiid plays this game takes a complete 180, but even a limited Embiid helps change things defensively for New York. Embiid in the starting lineup forces New York to play defense in the paint differently, puts pressure on Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns defensively and opens things up for Tyrese Maxey and Philadelphia’s shooters. The Knicks also have injury concerns of their own, as OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are both questionable to play in Game 3. Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring strain, while Hart has a thumb injury. OG has been huge for New York this postseason averaging over 21 points per game, so any hiccups there would damage the Knicks on offense and defense.

There are a lot of factors that play into this, but everything starts with Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia. Maxey was forced to do too much in Game 2 and Philadelphia understandably ran out of steam late, but being at home should help the Sixers find a more balanced attack. Maxey can create off the dribble against Jalen Brunson and the rest of New York’s guards while George and Oubre will need to provide enough offense from deep to prevent the Knicks from doubling Maxey every chance they get. Even a slight bump from Philadelphia’s bench would go a long way in this game.

Give New York credit, they have played well enough to be up 2-0. But I feel like this is about as classic of a series-shift spot as you can get. The Knicks took care of business at home, but Philadelphia gets homecourt advantage now in terms of the crowd, urgency and adjustments. Philadelphia was really close in Game 2 despite shooting themselves in the foot several times. With better ball protection, more frequent trips to the foul line and the potential addition of Embiid, the Sixers have everything they need to cover the short number and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 572. 76ers 

I have Tampa Bay laying the juice Monday, and I can easily make a case why Tampa Bay should win the game outright. Tampa Bay is entering this matchup as the hotter team and have been one of the league’s better home teams overall. Toronto on the other hand checks in at just 16-18 overall and just 6-10 on the road. Tampa Bay has also gone 9-1 over their last 10 contests, while Toronto has gone 6-4.

The most glaring advantage for Tampa Bay comes on the mound. Tampa Bay will start Nick Martinez who is sitting at 2-1 with a 1.70 ERA. Toronto has yet to offically name it's starter for tonight but one pitcher I think could toe the rubber is  Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA) in place of Jose Berrios on the rehab assignment. Lauer has nowhere near the type of resume Martinez brings into this matchup. But really, not matter who Toronto throws tonight will not change me mind here on this side. 

Eric Lauer also has recent struggles of his own too. Not only is Martinez just flat-out better, but he also happens to be hot as of late. Martinez’s most recent start was a shutout of Cleveland where he pitched seven innings and allowed three hits. Another preview says Martinez is allowing “the lowest hard-hit rate of his career.” If there was ever a pitcher to matchup well against a Blue Jays lineup that has lots of talent but has still struggled on the road, it’s Martinez in this spot.

Toronto’s lineup does have the upper hand in terms of talent, but Tampa Bay’s lineup has found a nice groove as of late and should be able to support Martinez. Tampa Bay has outscored opponents by 24 runs over their last 10 games. With Tampa Bay holding the stronger recent form, home field advantage, and the better pitching matchup, I trust Tampa Bay more than Toronto on Monday. Take Tampa Bay with whatever pitcher the Jays throw.

Jim's Play: 964. Rays (AL East Game of the Month)

Toronto makes the most sense as a win candidate on Saturday and the starting pitching matchup tilts Blue Jays direction. Dylan Cease is slotted to start for Toronto while Connor Prielipp gets the nod for Minnesota. Cease is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 49 strikeouts on the season while Prielipp has yet to earn a loss at 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts. Toronto has both the more proven arm and the better strikeout pitcher in this matchup.

Toronto’s victory on Friday is another big reason to like the Jays on Saturday. Toronto’s offense received big nights from Kazuma Okamoto, who doubled in two runs and drove in three total, while also getting notable performances from Yohendrick Pinango and Lenyn Sosa. That’s notable because Toronto’s offense looked refreshed after losing the opener, and now looks to have momentum as it heads into Saturday’s game.

Cease is the obvious reason why the Blue Jays are live in this spot. He has racked up close to 17 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season and same-day betting previews are already boiling down Toronto’s chances to his ability to miss bats against this Twins lineup. If Cease can dominate like that at Target Field, Toronto has every opportunity to control the middle of this game.

There’s also a team-vs.-team dynamic that slightly favors Toronto. Friday’s win pushed the series to one game apiece, and it caught Minnesota playing sloppy baseball that included a throwing error Toronto capitalized on early in the game. Keep that theme going with another strong starter and cleaner game for Toronto and they can easily take the series lead on Saturday.

Between having the better starter, an offense that is coming off a confidence booster, and the Twins playing a pitcher with less of a track record Saturday, Toronto has every opportunity to win Saturday’s game if Cease pitches to form.

Jim's Play: 965. Blue Jays 

Houston boasts pretty strong betting odds Friday because they’ve flipped the script on this series with two consecutive eliminations wins. The Rockets won Game 5 in Los Angeles 99-93 to follow up their Game 4 comeback, narrow the Lakers’ series lead to 3-2 and bring Game 6 back to Houston with momentum.

A lot of that momentum comes from Houston’s defensive identity it has established without Durant. The Rockets held the Lakers to just 93 points on Monday while getting 22 points from Jabari Smith Jr., 18 from Tari Eason and a near triple-double from Alperen Sengun, and Houston’s defensive play and poise down the stretch. If they can again make this a physical, half-court battle, that’s clearly the recipe for an outright win at home.

Injuries also play into the narrative, though not in a manner that totally deflates Houston’s argument. The Rockets will be without Kevin Durant for Game 6 after suffering a bone bruise on his left ankle in Game 5, but the Lakers will be without Luka Doncic and didn’t have Austin Reaves starting in Game 5 because of his oblique problem. Put simply, Houston is showing it can win this game even if they’re missing players.

There’s even a number argument for the money line play too.  Nothing is guaranteed, but it does illustrate what we are currently looking at: Houston playing at home while playing better over the last two games and now sitting in the better spot situationally.

Essentially, the lean is straightforward: Houston has momentum, a home floor and a defensive game plan that’s already worked twice in a row. Bring that same aggression and focus they had in Game 5 and they’ve got a very good chance to even this series and send this to a Game 7.

Jim's Play: 524. Rockets Money Line 

My Total of the month focuses on the over between the Washington Nationals and the NY Mets.  Mikolas entered Thursday with a 0-3 record and 8.49 ERA,  this will only be his first traditional start since April 8 since serving as a bulk reliever. That’s the type of volatility that can lead to early traffic, short outings and bullpen exposure.

Washington’s bats could come through with their fair share as well. The Nationals just beat up the Mets 14-2 on Wednesday to the season high in runs scored, and that came after a series where Washington already proved it could inflict some damage against New York pitching. The hotter a lineup is playing, the better a case you can make against the Mets on Thursday, especially when facing a staff that has already allowed some rough innings in this series.

Plus, the Mets can legitimately help push this game over too. They also have to deal with Washington’s historically strong track record against Freddy Peralta. Peralta is 4-3 with a 5.82 ERA in eight career games (six starts) against Washington, while Mikolas is 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA in nine games (eight starts) against the Mets. Peralta isn’t a bad play by any means, but that’s enough history for Washington against him that you cannot expect New York to hold Washington under a bar of runs needed to hit this over total.

When you have one starter with an ERA around 8.50 and the opposing team coming off a 14-run outburst, the over does not need both teams swapping hits like it’s a shootout to cash. Any old 6-3 or 5-4 type game takes care of business.

Between Mikolas being the weak link, Washington’s bats coming off a breakout series and Peralta not having enough history over Washington to suppress the over by himself, I like Nationals-Mets to hit the full game total if Washington can get into Mikolas early and New York chips in their normal home-run totals.

Jim's Play: 957. Nationals/Mets OVER (April Total of the Month)

Toronto covers Monday because the spread still affords the Raptors plenty of cushion in what should be a tighter Game 2 than Game 1. Cleveland opened as a -8.5 favorite before settling at -9.5. 

It also makes sense from a bounce-back premise after Toronto’s 126-113 loss on Saturday. That final score might as well have been 13 because Cleveland entered the fourth quarter with a lead of 100-76. This implied Toronto spent Game 1 missing shots while Cleveland caught fire from deep (the Cavs went 16-for-32 on three-pointers). Toronto did score 24 points from RJ Barrett, 21 points from Scottie Barnes, and 17 points apiece from Brandon Ingram and Jamal Shead. Granted, seven Raptors reached double-figures, but they had enough offense to keep pace with Cleveland had they not had lapses on defense their coach highlighted after the game.

Immanuel Quickley’s availability is another key factor in Toronto’s favor on the spread. He missed Game 1 with a strained hamstring, but currently list as game-time decision for Monday. He was expected to miss multiple games before being deemed active for just Game 1. Toronto probably would not roll him 100 percent if he is available, but having any real chance to activate him means the Raptors should be able to stabilize their guard play, pace, and half-court offense.

Toronto has enough playmakers to make adjustments in a playoff game too. Toronto finished with a 46-36 record while Cleveland went 52-30. Toronto’s resume was not bad enough to run away from this spot, but they do have Barnes, Barrett, and Ingram to prevent Cleveland from pulling away on the Raptors again.

Toronto covering the spread is your 1st Round Game of the Year because the Raptors can improve from Game 1, figure to have more rotation depth if Quickley can play, and the betting line has moved towards Cleveland enough to where you can trust the dog. If Toronto defends three-point shooting better and prevents Cleveland from heating up like they did in Game 1, they will have a great opportunity to keep it closer than expected Monday night.

Jim's Play: 501. Raptors (NBA 1st Round Game of the Year)

I am looking at Cleveland to win Thursday because the Guardians have a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland leans on Parker Messick who will take the mound at 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Baltimore sends Shane Baz to the mound who is currently 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Then there’s the home field advantage. Thursday’s game takes place at Progressive Field where Cleveland has played well so far this season. Baltimore arrives in Cleveland just hours after an 8-5 extra-innings loss to Arizona that highlighted some persistent problems in the Orioles’ defense. Camden Chat wrote about Wednesday’s Orioles loss and highlighted the shaky outfield defense Baltimore has along with some instability in their roster construction. Baltimore doesn’t exactly have the resume of a team you want to roll into a road series opener against a Cleveland team that will likely pressure them with quality at-bats and strong pitching.

Of course Cleveland could just look to get back on track after losing two in a row in St. Louis. Reuters pointed out Cleveland hadn’t lost consecutive games before their recent two-game skid which bodes well for their ability to bounce back. Cleveland did show off what their offense is capable of earlier this week when they beat the Cardinals 9-3 behind multiple hitters going deep. José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Brayan Rocchio, and Angel Martinez were all a part of that offensive outburst. Baltimore’s starter has allowed 20 hits through 16 innings this season so Cleveland has every opportunity to manufacture more traffic than Baltimore can deal with.

The Guardians’ best case scenario probably isn’t complicated at all. Messick continues to dominate like he has all season, Cleveland takes an early lead at home, and Baltimore’s below-average pitching and defense rears its head again. Cleveland has the better starter, home field advantage, and a visiting Orioles team that just got blown up on Wednesday night.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians (Game of the Week)

Let’s start with why Orlando actually has a legitimate shot to win outright Wednesday night. The value shifts significantly when Joel Embiid is ruled out for Philadelphia. Embiid is Philly’s best interior scorer, rebounder, and rim protector, so multiple previews highlighted the center matchup as a weakness for Philly, as they will have to rely on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona to keep up with Orlando’s frontcourt talent. This shift becomes glaring when you consider Orlando is built around larger wings and forwards like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane.

Orlando also sports the type of roster that should make life difficult for Philadelphia’s guards. The Magic operate as one of the bigger teams in the league while also boasting strong perimeter defense as part of its identity. Multiple betting previews noted the Magic’s defense presents issues for Philadelphia, especially if Tyrese Maxey can’t fully stay on top of his finger tendon injury while Embiid sits. If Orlando can keep Maxey grounded, it really does even the playing field in what would otherwise be a typical road play-in favorite scenario.

Don’t overlook the talent side of things with Orlando, either. Simply put, Orlando boasts three potential star scorers with Banchero, Wagner, and Bane. Coverage targeting Philadelphia mentioned the trio as “dangerous” and noted how any of those three are capable of exploding for 30-plus points. In a play-in game, shot creation will be paramount, and Orlando having multiple players that defenses fear is a net positive.

Throw in that Orlando was riding four straight wins just a week ago when they dropped 53.7% from the field and 41.4% from three against Minnesota, and there’s some recent form backing up this upset and cover argument as well. The Magic posted up a nearly identical 45-37 record to Philly’s, so we’re not talking about some massive discrepancy game on paper. This one should be close based solely on records, and that was reflected in the opening line with Orlando as a slight underdog around +2.

Putting it all together, I really like Orlando’s best-case game script: attack Philly with size in the post, create good offense through Banchero and Wagner, and force an undermanned Sixers team to play from behind without Embiid controlling the paint. If that happens, the Magic have every chance in the world to pull off the outright win. 

Jim's Play: 561. Magic (Play-In Game of the Year)

The top reason to fade the over in Monday’s total between the Angels and Yankees is the matchup under the surface of starting pitchers. Angels’ starter Yusei Kikuchi enters with an 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA to go along with a 1.77 WHIP. Kikuchi allowed nine runs on 12 hits in his last 10 1/3 innings dating back to his last two starts. As dismal as those numbers are, it’s even tougher to feel good about Kikuchi’s profile while in Yankee Stadium against an offense that still has enough big swingers to do some damage even while slumping should he keep allowing men on base.

However, we can make a credible argument that the Angels can scratch across enough runs themselves to get this over the total. Through 16 games the Angels have already scored 73 runs compared to New York’s 65 and have 19 home runs to the Yankees’ 14. The Angels tallied 19 runs in their two victories over the weekend in Cincinnati and have already had seven games with at least five runs scored this season, so this lineup is not coming into this spot cold.

Even though Will Warren has fared better than Kikuchi so far this season, he is not lights-out enough to scream under either. Warren comes into this matchup with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, both of which are decent numbers, but not great enough to completely suppress an Angels team that has seen production from a variety of bats lately.

It’s fairly simple really: the Angels hit enough to pose some threat against New York’s pitching, the Yankees get a very left-handed pitcher they can attack in Kikuchi, and the total sits low enough where a couple of innings with multiple runs scored can clear the bar. Even with the Yankees in a five-game slump, this feels more like a game with two offenses that could contribute rather than a low-scoring pitchers’ matchup.

Jim's Play: 911. Angels / Yankees OVER

Cleveland has a strong case to win Wednesday because the Guardians are back home, they already grabbed a 2-1 win in Tuesday’s game, and they have been better overall through the first two weeks of the season. Entering this matchup, Cleveland is 7-5 and sitting first in the AL Central, while Kansas City is 5-6. The series is tied 1-1, so the Guardians also have the edge of playing a rubber game at Progressive Field, where they are 3-2 so far.

The matchup on the mound is tougher than the line suggests, but there is still a good angle for Cleveland. Joey Cantillo gets the ball for the Guardians with a 3.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 9 innings, he threw eight scoreless innings against Kansas City in his most recent start versus the Royals last September. Cole Ragans is a quality arm for Kansas City, but the Guardians have at least shown they can compete in lower-scoring games against this Royals lineup, holding Kansas City to just one hit on Tuesday while Cleveland pitchers piled up 14 strikeouts.

Another reason to like Cleveland is its pitching profile and ability to win tight games. The Guardians carrying a 3.31 team ERA and a .201 opponent batting average, both clearly better than Kansas City’s 4.10 ERA and .237 opponent average. Cleveland has not hit for a high average early, but its staff has kept games under control, and that becomes especially important in a matchup expected to be close. If Cantillo gives them a solid five or six innings, the Guardians are in position to let their pitching and home field carry them to the win.

Jim's Play: 962. Guardians

Michigan is the right side to win and cover because this is basically a coin-flip heavyweight matchup, yet the Wolverines are the team laying the short number at -1.5, which tells you the market sees them as slightly better on this floor. Tipoff is 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday, April 4, at Lucas Oil Stadium, and both teams arrive as No. 1 seeds, with Michigan at 35-3 and Arizona at 36-2.

The biggest reason to trust Michigan is the balance between elite defense and a tournament offense that has been exploding. Michigan is the nation’s top-ranked defense with the No. 5 offense, while Arizona comes in with the No. 2 defense and No. 4 offense, so there is not much separation overall. The difference is that Michigan has looked more overwhelming in this tournament run, including a 95-62 blowout of Tennessee in the Elite Eight, the Wolverines became the first team to win four NCAA Tournament games by double digits while scoring at least 90 points in each. That kind of current form matters when you only need them to cover a basket or less.

Michigan also has the best recent momentum of the two teams. Against Tennessee, Yaxel Lendeborg scored 27 points, Elliot Cadeau handed out 10 assists, and AP highlighted Michigan’s deep, unselfish style and transition attack. Arizona was impressive in beating Purdue, but its path looked more dependent on a second-half rally after trailing by seven at halftime. Michigan has been the team dictating games from the jump, and that is exactly what you want when backing a favorite to cover a short spread.

There is also a clear matchup path for Michigan: make Arizona play from the perimeter. Arizona relies heavily on interior play, physicality, and an elite free-throw rate, while Michigan’s edge may come from perimeter shooting, where the Wolverines have hit 44.6% from three in the tournament. If Michigan keeps spacing the floor and forces Arizona to chase shooters instead of controlling the paint, the Wolverines have the cleaner route to offensive separation.

This feels like a game Michigan wins by at least four points, which would be enough to both advance and cover.

Jim's Play: 651. Michigan

Creighton is appealing to me as a spread play against Rutgers Thursday, April 2 in the Crown Tournament. from Las Vegas, NV.  This game doesn’t necessarily play perfectly according to spreadsheet and stats, but enough things line up that I think Creighton can win easily against an underwhelming Scarlet Knights team. The line opened with Creighton around -4.5, which means that they do not have to run Rutgers off the court to cash. Simply playing a controlled game should get the job done, especially considering this is on a neutral floor against a Rutgers team that went 14-19 overall and was horrific away from home at 2-9.

Creighton was much more consistent at home (10-6) this season and enters this game as a hefty betting favorite for those reasons. Rutgers has had difficulty sustaining consistent offense all season long. They have talent, but their overall body of work shows a team that hasn’t been able to put it all together for long stretches of time. That makes them dangerous in any game because an off night could easily derail a tournament run, but inconsistent teams are difficult to trust against Creighton.

Motivation is also an interesting angle here. This is Greg McDermott’s last season with Creighton before he steps down. The players know this and I would assume they want to send him out with a strong postseason run. In a “second season” tournament like the Crown motivation is often the difference maker between matchups and Creighton should have all the motivation in the world to keep McDermott coaching.

On paper Creighton also has enough offensive balance to win this game. The Bluejays scored 75.1 points per game with a variety of players contributing. Josh Dix is the team’s best scorer while Nik Graves was their lead playmaker. Offensively, they are not a great team, but they can put enough pressure on Rutgers if they shoot around average from the perimeter and take care of the basketball. Live-ball turnovers were a problem for Creighton at times this season, but they forced problems for opponents all year long. Give Creighton some leeway on offense and they should be able to control the pace of this game and force Rutgers to play catch-up.

Lastly, just look at the spread itself. When I first looked at the game Creighton was anywhere from a 3.5 to 4.5 favorite. Basically, the market is saying that Creighton is better than Rutgers by more than one full possession on a neutral floor. I don’t think that number is inflated at all and gives Creighton plenty of room to cover the spread without dominating Rutgers. 

There are a lot of reasons to like Creighton in this spot. They should be the steadier team on both ends, have a clear motivation boost, and this just feels like a game where they should be able to wear Rutgers down.

Jim's Play: 898. Creighton (Crown Tourney Game of the Year)

The primary reason to like the over here involves the starting pitching matchup. Chicago will send Davis Martin to the hill on Monday, while Miami counters with Chris Paddack. Martin had his moments last season, but he still posted a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2025, indicating there tend to be jams in the batting order against him most outings. Paddack fared even worse, recording a 5.35 ERA across 158 innings last year. Simply put, Miami isn’t exactly giving the ball to an established force here.

Throwing last season out, we should note that Chicago is also coming into Monday showing more pop than meets the eye. The White Sox got swept by Milwaukee over the weekend, but they also plated seven runs on Sunday. Munetaka Murakami homered again that day, and Colin Montgomery blasted a grand slam during Chicago’s 9-7 defeat. Murakami has homered in all three games this season, so even if the White Sox struggle to hit for consistency the rest of the way, they have obvious power potential to help push this total over by themselves.

Miami isn’t doing anything to dissuade you from thinking this game could stay high, either. The Marlins have opened up 3-0 on the year and they know how to manufacture runs late in games. Miami swept Colorado this weekend, winning Sunday on a walk-off homer by Owen Caissie after rallying from an early 3-0 deficit. You like that for an over because Miami showed lineup resilience in that game, meaning they can keep adding runs on Sunday even if they fall behind early. Also, the Marlins probably will not go dead against a soft-touch pitcher like Martin.

Yes, loanDepot park can inflate runs a tad more than some stadiums, so do not expect a guaranteed slugfest in this one. But we can still bank on the over because both starters come into this game with an ERA question mark, Chicago has already displayed some unexpected power early in the season, and Miami is swinging the bat with confidence and timely hitting. This will be my MLB Total of the Month for March!

Jim's Play: Take: 917. White Sox / Marlins OVER 

MLB Total of the Month

A couple angles are jumping out at me already: Duke is laying 5-5.5 points, and BOTH TEAMS have point guard health concerns going into a game that won’t likely be decided by much if the spread holds. 

Connecticut is a live play to cover primarily because this game feels like more of a grinder than a blowout is possible. Right off the bat, the biggest reason to like UConn against the number is experience, balance and simple tournament know-how. The Huskies are 32-5 on the year, just defeated Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight and have combined to go 16-1 in NCAA Tournament games over the last four seasons. That resume matters in this spot against a Duke team that had to battle St. John’s down the stretch to escape with a 80-75 victory.

Add in the fact that UConn has enough frontcourt weaponry to keep this game close for 40 minutes, too. Tarris Reed Jr. has been phenomenal for UConn in the tournament so far, and the combination of Reed and Alex Karaban gives the Huskies enough size, rebounding and interior scoring potential to not get bullied on the inside by Cameron Boozer and Duke’s overall length. As long as Reed continues to produce at an efficient rate inside, UConn doesn’t need to knock down shots to keep things within reach of the number.

Depth and health for Duke’s backcourt are also reasons to believe that UConn can at least keep this game close. The Blue Devils got an emotional boost from Caleb Foster’s return against St. John’s, but it’s unclear how effective Foster will be and/or how he’ll hold up over the course of 40 minutes fresh off a foot fracture. Both teams have point guard health concerns coming into this game, but if either guy has an “off” night or struggles with ball security a little, it actually helps the underdog have a chance to cover in games like these, even if Duke gets past Connecticut.

There’s even a stylistic angle to like with UConn, too. UConn’s deeper, more experienced roster along with Duke’s iffy three-point shooting in tournament play so far. If Duke struggles from distance again, UConn can afford to pack the lane, force Boozer to earn tough two pointers and turn this game into a possession-by-possession battle instead of opening the floor up for Duke to create real separation.

Again, Connecticut can win this outright, but the easiest way I see the Huskies covering the spread is by doing just enough on the boards, preventing Boozer from getting going entirely and relying on solid guard play from Malachi Smith and their veteran guards. 

I'll take the points with U Conn here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 633. U Conn

I look for Purdue to cover the spread against Arizona in the Elite 8 on Saturday, March 28, 2026 based on this number being high enough where the Boilermakers’ advantages in experience and offensive structure keep this one close. Current lines have Arizona favored by 5.5 points to 6.5 points with Purdue coming in at 30-8 while Arizona comes in at 35-2.

Experience is the first category to like about Purdue taking this number. This is freshman-fueled Arizona team going against Purdue led by seniors and with a game this late in the NCAA Tournament that experience matters. Purdue’s starting lineup has been here before while Tommy Lloyd explicitly called out Purdue’s combination of experience and offensive structure, referencing the trio of seniors starters who helped Purdue win a title last season. In a winner-take-all game where every possession counts, having veterans helps navigate through tough stretches.

Speaking of Purdue’s offense, the Boilermakers boast an attack that keeps many underdogs in games. Purdue has one of the most potent attacks in the country, averaging 82.1 points per game while shooting better than 50% from the floor, and their offensive prowess runs through Braden Smith, who recently set the NCAA career assists record. Having a veteran point guard who can run the pace and create high percentage looks makes it difficult for favorites to separate.

Staying with Purdue, they are also quite tough to score against, which should come in handy against Arizona’s pressure defense. Purdue survived Texas on Trey Kaufman-Renn’s tip-in with 0.7 seconds remaining, committing only four turnovers in the process which tied an NCAA Tournament program record. Taking care of the ball like that against an Arizona team that thrives on getting extra possessions through steals and transition buckets will allow the Boilermakers to dictate the pace of play.

Lastly, it’s easy enough to see a path to Purdue staying under the number if they fall behind Arizona. After all, Arizona demolished Arkansas 109-88 to improve to 12 games over .500 while Purdue survived a barnburner against Texas. Arizona should be favored, but this number could open up too high based on both of those games. Purdue has the tools to slow this game down and keep it closer than Arizona’s game against Arkansas was, making living with Arizona for multiple possessions a worthwhile endeavor if betting against the number.

Betting on Purdue simply rests on them keeping pace with Arizona’s scoring. If Braden Smith dictates tempo, Kaufman-Renn can provide enough points inside to keep Arizona from going crazy on the offensive glass, and Purdue’s veterans remember how to win close games in March, the Boilermakers can cover this spread. Arizona could still win this game, but Purdue looks to have all the tools it needs to keep this within one-possession to two-possession range.

Jim's Play : 631. Purdue 

Unlike most games with a 1-vs-5 seeding, this game does not project to feature an extremely dominant team. The first reason St. John’s can cover is the number itself is playable. As of publication Duke -6.5 with a total of 141.5. St. John’s is getting over two full possessions in what should still be a close Sweet 16 matchup.

The best reason to side with St. John’s however is simple performance. Despite being a five seed, the Red Storm are 30-6 on the season and just made their first Sweet 16 since 1999 with a 67-65 win over Kansas. St. John’s did not trail in the second half and led by as many as 14 points, showing they can play with and even dominate stretches of a quality opponent.

There is also excellent recent-form evidence. St. John’s has won five games in a row coming into this contest. They’ve won games against Kansas, Northern Iowa, UConn, Seton Hall, and Providence. While Duke is also in a hot streak, St. John’s recent success paints them as a team who defends and excels in clutch situations.

An additional reason this number appeals is purely style of game. This does not project to be a high-scoring game that will fluctuate wildly. The total is down at 141.5 and Duke has gone under in 14 of its last 20 games while St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12. A game that does not have teams scoring often opens up the floor for a +6.5 type spread to mean more because you waste less attempts getting down by double-digits.

On paper, there is no doubt Duke is the better team and should be favored. Duke is 34-2 overall this season while still ranking as the heaviest favorite to reach the Final Four. But, that same article refers to St. John’s as a No. 5 seed who just happened to be one of the highest seeds remaining in the tournament. If you buy into this game playing tight with a low total around 140, then St. John’s catches-plus becomes a lot more attractive.

If the game plays out cleanly for St. John’s, all they have to do is keep it physical, force Duke to execute from the half court, and stay within a possession or two for as long as possible. St. John’s has enough room to get the cover at +6.5.

Jim's Play: 621. St Johns (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)

 The number itself is already being bet at 234.5 and Denver is favored by about 4.5 to 5 points. To reach 234.5 with Denver as a four or five-point favorite means that the betting public is expecting a high-efficiency game from both teams rather than a slow grinder. Denver enters the game at 44-28 and Phoenix at 40-32, both marks that frame this as an attractive Western Conference matchup where both teams will probably need to keep scoring pressure on for all four quarters.

The Suns offensive explosion potential: Both teams have enough offensive star power to hit the 115-plus range from either team. Whether it's Nikola Jokic vs. Devin Booker, Denver comes into the game playing well as it fights for playoff position while Phoenix still tries to hold onto play-in status. When both teams have a lot to play for, you are less likely to see a flat paced game or a bench-heavy second half.

Phoenix’s last few games have landed right around the total: In Phoenix’s last five games the final scores have been 120-98, 105-108, 100-101, 104-116 and 112-120. As you can see by those results, Phoenix has had several games that would’ve gone over even before digging into how they match up with Denver. When they do match up with a stronger offensive team like Denver the total should rise even higher.

Denver can keep up as well: Denver coming into Phoenix on a hot streak and Peyton Watson returning to deepen a rotation that has found ways to win despite injuries all year. Even if Watson isn’t going to be a headline contributor, a healthier Nuggets rotation helps them keep offensive pressure on for longer stretches of time and gives them a better chance to score when their second unit is in the game.

This game is lined as competitive, not a blowout. With Denver only being favored by about four and a half points, naturally the expectation is that both teams will have chances to win late and play closer to their expected pace rather than settling for a low-scoring game early. Close games tend to be better for totals because teams are less likely to alter their game plan and slow the game down, instead playing an efficient brand of basketball down the stretch. This also leaves open the possibility for free throws to climb over the total in the final minutes if the game is close.

One reason why the total may go under: Phoenix recently had an underscored game against Milwaukee that finished 108-105 and has played in the 101-100 range against San Antonio recently. Games like that can scare people away from the over, but ultimately show that the Suns are playing competitive games where both teams have possession late. Against Denver’s more well-rounded offense, those close games may actually help the over rather than hurt it.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets / Suns OVER 

I’m taking the Clippers tonight just because I believe Milwaukee’s injury report is the biggest matchup relevant factor. Milwaukee listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as out today with a knee injury. He was expected to be re-evaluated in roughly one week. Kevin Porter Jr. is also out tonight and Kyle Kuzma is questionable. Losing Giannis for what could be up to a week plus KPJ and Kuzma for tonight would be a major blow to Milwaukee who is just 29-41 on the season and 13-22 away from home.

Milwaukee’s lack of health also works in L.A.’s favor from a recent-form perspective. The Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 138-131 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday night. They got 41 points and 11 assists from Darius Garland and 34 points from Kawhi Leonard while shooting 56.7% from the floor and 21-of-42 from deep. This matters because the Clippers offense may have finally woken up before the season ended and if that momentum can carry at home versus Milwaukee, the Bucks may have a tough time keeping up.

Milwaukee did find ways to beat Phoenix 108-105 on Saturday without Giannis so this is not the spot to completely write off the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won that game in a tight fashion and even then the offense still had to feast off of role players such as Ryan Rollins. Not having Giannis, KPJ and Kuzma or Kuzma limited is a scary proposition for Bucks fans. Going on the road and having to keep within two possessions of a Clippers team that still has the playoffs on their mind is a tall task.

My cleanest cover script for this game is the Clippers’ healthier core provides them more efficient offense and Milwaukee can’t create enough top-end scoring without Giannis. The game gets away from Milwaukee even faster if Kuzma is limited or ruled out of the game. One final wrinkle to keep an eye on: Kawhi Leonard is a game time decision so we’ll know closer to tip which direction this leans. If he plays, the cover side of the Clippers is much stronger in my opinion.

Jim's Play: 550. Clippers

Florida’s ability to cover is primarily because they are coming off one of the most dominant wins in first round tournament history. The Gators obliterated Prairie View A&M 114-55. That’s right, Florida won by 59 points, which was the second-largest margin of victory in NCAA tournament history. Florida shot the ball remarkably well at 64.3% from the field while dominating the rebounding margin 54-20. Seven different players scored in double figures highlighting both their efficiency and overall depth.

Speaking of balance, Florida isn’t beating teams by having just one player will everything on their shoulders. They aren’t leaning on Anthony Black to shoot them to victory, nor are they depending solely on James Martinez Jr.’s defense. Reuben Chinyelu posted a double-double against Prairie View A&M while Boogie Fland scored efficiently and Thomas Haugh facilitated at a high level. That balance matters because it means teams can’t game plan against just one Florida player for 40 minutes.

Iowa beat Clemson 67-61 in the first round so they are no cupcake. But the style of victory should concern betting on the Hawkeyes to keep things close. Iowa beat Clemson by dominating the rebounding margin and slowing the game down to a crawl. Iowa scored just 67 points against Clemson, which will be a completely different task when matched up with Florida’s ability to bury teams with size and constant scoring.

This is also as simple as tournament paths. Iowa was able to sneak in as a 9-seed despite only having a good season as opposed to a great one. Florida is the defending national champion and 1-seed in this pod. Current betting lines account for that and Florida’s blowout win on Friday night only adds to the case that they can cover this spread.

Florida posting another strong box score like Friday night’s should be enough to cash this ticket. Keep Iowa in games for stretches they will, but Florida has too much size, depth, and talent to let this one stay close.

Jim's Play: 812. Florida  

Wake Forest didn’t exactly dominate its opening NIT game. Over Navy, the Deacons won 82-72 win but the recap specifically noted that Wake wasn’t especially sharp early on and the energy level was “non-existent” before things clicked. That matters when your second round opponent is significantly tougher because you can’t afford to play down to your competition if you want to cover more than two possessions.

Illinois State also likes the way the game shakes out matchup wise. Wake took care of Illinois State’s Kent State in the opening round, so by virtue of Sunday both teams have essentially played each other. Sunday’s game naturally shapes up to be more competitive than the opening round tilt, and the line confirms that theory. Yes, Wake is the better team and has the clear advantage at home but to open up at -7.5 implies Illinois State is respected enough to hang around for most of the game instead of just surviving.

Also, remember, Illinois State is catching 7.5 points against a clearly average Wake Forest team that won just 18 games during the regular season. Home court and conference bias will get you to something like -6 or -6.5 pretty easily, but once you push past two full possessions against essentially nothing that often creates value on the dog, particularly in the NIT where fight and tempo often determine games just as much as raw athleticism.

Cleanest cover script here is simple: ISU keeps the game in check, prevents Wake Forest from getting out in transition and makes the final eight minutes a possession game. Wake should still win but Illinois State has enough value at +7.5 to remain on the right side of the number.

Jim's Play: 825. Illinois St (NIT 2nd Round Game of the Year)

I’ll be playing Vandy here Saturday against Nebraska as my 2nd Round Game of the Year. First of all, just take a look at the number. Nebraska gets seeded No. 4 here, but Vanderbilt is the No. 5 seed coming in at 27-8 against Nebraska’s 27-6 record, so we’re not talking about this being a huge class-gap matchup. CBS’s preview of the game calls this a close second-round game between two teams with very similar records – exactly what you look for when wanting to take the points.

In Vanderbilt’s first-round win against McNeese, they shot 51% from the field, got 26 points from Tyler Tanner, and got solid scoring from Devin McGlockton, Duke Miles, and Tyler Nickel to pull away late. Reuters discussed how Vanderbilt was able to handle McNeese’s pressure well enough before separating late with smooth offense and excellent ball movement. If a team can score that efficiently against anyone then they are dangerous as a short underdog.

Also lending value to Vanderbilt covering the spread is the fact that Nebraska might be coming off one of those giant emotional let loose type of wins that actually make your next game more difficult. The Cornhuskers just picked up their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory on Saturday, pulling away from Troy 76-47. Reuters said it was a “first win ever in school history” that finally ended Nebraska’s 0-8 NCAA Tournament streak. A win like that is monumental for a program, and Nebraska will have a tough time matching that same level of emotion, just 48 hours later against a vastly superior opponent.

Speaking of superior opponents, the matchup looks even closer when you consider how both teams got to this point. Nebraska blasted Troy, but Troy shot only 28.3% from the floor and made Nebraska’s life fairly easy on offense. Vanderbilt meanwhile dealt with a McNeese team that made them turn the ball over and get crushed on the offensive boards, yet the Commodores still came away with the win by 10 points because they were the more efficient team and took care of the ball. That should allow Vanderbilt to weather Nebraska’s initial attack and keep this game in one- or two-possession territory for long periods of time.

Finally, there’s just something to be said about Vanderbilt’s style of play on offense Saturday against McNeese. The Commodores showed that they can still win even when the opposition outdoes them in hustle stats like defensive rebounds and steals because they made their shots and took care of the ball. Nebraska played great against Troy, tallying 20 assists on 28 field goals and only coughing the ball up six times, but asking them to play that efficiently against a better offensive team with more athletes is asking a lot. If Nebraska plays even just slightly below their potential on offense then this spread gets very difficult to cover.

Put it all together and you get this: Vanderbilt is a dangerous 5-seed that scored in bunches Saturday against a quality team while Nebraska is likely getting too many points coming off a once-in-a-lifetime kind of win for them. Take Vandy against the number here. 

Jim's Play: 781. Vanderbilt (NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year)

Michigan State might just need a semi-average performance to cover the spread against Louisville on Saturday. The Spartans hold a manageable number while the game flows into their core competencies. Lines are hovering around Michigan State -4.5 with an O/U of 151, which means they don’t need to blow out Louisville, just keep a game within reach while their size and physicality matter.

The rebounding and points in the paint battle will heavily favor Michigan State. The Spartans crushed North Dakota State 92-67 in the opening round while shooting 58.9% and recording 26 assists on 33 made field goals. Carson Cooper posted 20 points and 10 rebounds while Jaxon Kohler dropped 12 points and nine rebounds, showing how smoothly their frontcourt can move the ball. Against Louisville, that advantage could be huge. 

Pick your weakness for Louisville, and Michigan State probably has a strength to counter it. Louisville eked out a close win against South Florida, 83-79, while coughing up a 22-point lead, committing a season-high 22 turnovers, and showing signs of struggle in the second half as the game turned ugly. South Florida scored 44 points in the paint versus Louisville, which could come back to bite the Cardinals against a bigger, stronger Michigan State team that wants to attack the rim.

Experience could matter as well. Michigan State wasn’t really challenged in the opening round, while Louisville had to weather some late foul trouble and almost let a huge lead slip away. The Cardinals will be without Mikel Brown Jr., while this Ryan Conwell took some nasty shots against South Florida. Against a team like Tom Izzo’s that can throw lots of fresh bodies at you and bully you inside, both of those factors could be relevant.

Michigan State wins the battle on the glass, forces Louisville’s turnovers to hurt them again, and grinds down its taller opponent with a deeper bench. The game won’t feel as close as the spread makes it out to be.

Jim's Play: 774. Michigan State 

Northern Iowa is the team I'm looking at here Friday for my NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year.  You’ll see Northern Iowa listed around +9.5 right now while the total is being pushed down toward 131.5. That’s key because when the number is this low, possessions are more valuable, and it’s more difficult for the favorite to pull away. A spread around 10 points in a game that’s being lined in the low 130s automatically grants some inherent value to the underdog.

Style of play is the biggest reason why UNI will stay close. Northern Iowa plays at a slow pace, and several of the current game previews specifically mention the Panthers’ pack-line defense and methodical pace. One site projected UNI to play at just 65.3 possessions per game, which gets at why pace-of-play matters in these discussions. If the game features few possessions, it naturally benefits the underdog because there are fewer opportunities for the favorite to build a gap.

On top of playing slow, Northern Iowa can keep things close defensively. A New York Post preview says that the Panthers allow only 61.3 points per game, while another preview called UNI 24th in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to under 29% from three-point range. Against a St. John’s team that thrives on rhythm and momentum, that lets UNI dictate the game’s pace and force it into a grinder.

Conference and tournament history further favors UNI because of how Ben Jacobson wants his team to play. St. John’s own preview mentioned that UNI is known as “a sneaky dangerous NCAA tournament team” before citing multiple tournament upsets by the Panthers. History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but that dovetails with the pace argument by suggesting that Northern Iowa isn’t a timid 12-seed that will fold under pressure.

Nothing about this analysis is meant to undermine how good St. John’s is or that they shouldn’t be favored. The Red Storm are 28-6 overall, won the Big East regular season and tournament championships, and have gone 19-1 since January 3 according to their preview. They’re more than earned that line. 

Game script is a silent assassin for UNI as well. If the Panthers lose, they’ll probably lose by forcing St. John’s to play keep-away on offense. The Red Storm win by dominating the inside, taking few threes, and imposing their will in the second half. Against a team like Northern Iowa that forces opponents to grind out every bucket, it’s hard to envision St. John’s pulling away by more than a few points.

UNI covers by playing low-tempo basketball, frustrating opponents with its half-court defense, keeping opponents off the three-point line, and keeping the overall possession count down. They might not win, but that keeps the score closer than this spread indicates. Think matchup-adjusted true contests, not blowouts. 

Jim's Play: 765. Northern Iowa (NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year)

Liberty has every reason to think it can cover +5.5 against George Mason in the NIT first round as this has more potential to be a grinder than a game with wide separation. ESPN is listing George Mason -5.5 with the total somewhere in the 143.5 to 144.5 range, and that type of number is in danger when one team consistently plays a disciplined, low mistake game like Liberty.

The first reason why Liberty can stay within the number is simply because of its overall body of work. Liberty comes into the game at 25-7 and finished first in Conference USA while George Mason sits at 23-9 and finished fifth in the A-10. This is not a class-gap matchup by any means. Liberty also travels well as the Flames are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 road games, which is important when an underdog catches multiple possessions on the road.

Liberty also has the better offensive profile of the two teams. The Flames are averaging approximately 78.2 points per game while George Mason puts up only 73.3 points per contest. On a night where every possession should count, Liberty having a little bit more juice offensively makes the Flames underdog more live to hang around, especially if the Patriots find themselves forced to score in the half court.

The defense of George Mason is obviously the strength of the favorite as it allows only 67.5 points per game, but that stat actually helps the cover case more than it hurts it. Favorites that win with defense and control instead of explosive offense become much harder to generate separation against. If George Mason dictates tempo, this should be a lower-possession game, and lower-possession games inherently favor the side taking points.

Liberty also comes into this having found some great form late. The Flames are on a roll heading into this game closing on a five-game win streak with wins over Middle Tennessee State, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State. Meanwhile, George Mason just lost 63-57 to St. Bonaventure in the A-10 Tournament. This does not mean Mason cannot win this game, but it does mean Liberty will likely roll in better rhythm.

Finally, this matchup profiles nicely for a backdoor cover even if George Mason ends up controlling long stretches of gameplay. Liberty has a number of efficient scorers including Darius McGhee, who is averaging 16.8 points per game on 50.3%/48.1% shooting and Nendhal Phifer at 13.4 points per game. Additionally, guard Bryson Grudger offers versatility averaging 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists. This type of balance allows the Flames to answer any scoring runs with enough shot-making to stay within two possessions late in the game.

George Mason will likely win this game as favorites do at home, but the overall profile of this game says it shouldn’t be won by much. Liberty has better offense, plays well away from home, and catches enough points in what projects to be a low-scoring game controlled by defenses. Those are all recipes for an underdog cash.

Jim's Play: 665. Liberty (NIT 1st Round Game of the Year)

Grand Canyon has decent juice to lay here simply because we’re pretty much expecting a toss-up game here. Nevada is not being tasked with putting this game away. The line opened around Grand Canyon -2.5 and currently sits at -3.5.  Moving the game to a neutral floor is probably the biggest reason to jump on Grand Canyon right now. Nevada did defeat GCU 66-60 in overtime back on Jan. 28 at Reno. However, now you’re taking away Nevada’s home-court advantage. If we’re talking about a rematch that came down to one possession after 40 minutes, removing one team’s advantage makes Grand Canyon a much more appealing play.

History between these teams plays a role too. As mentioned before, this game went to OT last time these two played, which means Grand Canyon can at least hang with Nevada even if things aren’t clicking offensively for them. When games are this close, usually laying a short number with the team getting the better venue is the better play.

The only thing that gives me pause here is injury news, as Wilhelm Breidenbach will be out for Grand Canyon. However, the market has already factored that known injury into keeping GCU as favorites, so I think bettors view the Lopes as the slight favorite in this game regardless.

Overall, Grand Canyon’s strongest argument for covering this spot is simple; this game was fairly even when it was in Reno and now moves to a neutral floor while the spread is just one basket. That screams “Lopes can win.” 

Jim's Play:  764. Grand Canyon (MTN West Tourney Game of the Year)

Tulane makes a lot of sense to back here because I just don’t think that number is very big. The line opened Memphis -3.5 and has stayed there, which means the Green Wave just need to play a competitive game on a neutral floor in Birmingham. It’s significant that the teams finished with identical 8-10 AAC records too, and the market even jumped a point toward Tulane from the opener.

The biggest reason to like Tulane may be just how the last meeting went. Back on March 8, Memphis barely escaped with a 96-95 overtime victory against Tulane after the Green Wave erased a nine-point deficit in the final 2:27 of regulation. Tulane even led 40-31 at halftime. This isn’t quite as clear cut of a favorite-underdog battle as the number suggests. If Tulane could almost knock off Memphis three days ago, keeping this one within one or two possessions is realistic.

Plus, familiarity works in Tulane’s favor as well. This is already the third meeting between these two teams this season and conference rematches like this often tighten up because both staffs are so familiar with the opponent’s sets, personnel and tendencies. In tourney games, familiarity usually favors the underdog more than the favorite, especially when the spread is this small. Tulane does not need to outplay Memphis for 40 minutes. It just needs to keep things close, and we’ve already seen it do that.

I may still think Memphis is the more likely winner of this game, but Tulane +3.5 is a number I can get behind because the teams split conference games, the last meeting went to OT, and I expect this neutral-floor rematch to be close once again. This feels like a one-possession game more than a Memphis cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 693. Tulane (American Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

I'm going to the Extra board for my Conference Tourney Game of the Year here on Tuesday as Mercyhurst and Long Island meet in the Northeast conference Championship game.  Mercyhurst has is the side I'm looking at here plus the points. The number isn’t astronomical yet at +5.5 to +6.5, and the Lakers already showed they could defeat LIU outright. They defeated the Sharks 91-83 in their last meeting on February 21, so we’re not looking at a situation where LIU mauled Mercyhurst last time out.

In fact, that game illustrated how Mercyhurst can win again. The Lakers forced LIU into turnovers and capitalized on their opponent’s mistakes by scoring 20 points on 13 LIU turnovers during the upset. When playing in a spread, turnovers like those matter because forcing extra possessions is one of the easiest ways for an underdog to keep the score close enough to the line to win without needing an outright victory.

There’s even motivation to consider on Mercyhurst’s side. LIU has already clinched the NEC’s spot in the NCAA tournament thanks to Mercyhurst’s ineligibility while transitioning to Division I, so there isn’t as much fight-to-the-death incentive on the line for the Sharks in this game. LIU will certainly try to win, but part of the motivation is gone and that can allow an underdog to stick around longer than normal.

LIU may be the better team too, but these two have been competitive recently. LIU’s overall record of 23-10 is better than Mercyhurst’s at 17-16, but their all-time series record is tied at 2-2 in the last two seasons. LIU won both of their meetings at home, but Mercyhurst won both games on its home floor as well. Even if LIU is the better team, these two match up closely and haven’t covered much of a gap in the head-to-head over their last few meetings.

LIU is more likely to win this game at home, but Mercyhurst has a definite profile to play this spread based on having already beaten this team once, creating turnover-based offense in that game, and getting enough points to work with while LIU’s NCAA tournament destiny has already been decided.

Jim's Play: 551. Mercyhurst (Northeast Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi deserves some consideration here because both the matchup and the tournament scenario favor the Islanders. The number is getting pushed around -2.5 only.  Corpus Christi finished ahead of New Orleans in the Southland regular-season standings by going 17-14 overall and 13-9 in conference compared to the Privateers’ 15-17 and 12-10.

Perhaps even more importantly, Corpus Christi has the advantage of rest. The Islanders were granted a first-round bye in the conference tournament while New Orleans advanced to Monday by beating Houston Christian 73-60 on Sunday. In a conference tournament, that extra day of rest can make a significant difference in such a close matchup.

Adding more fuel to Corpus Christi’s fire, they won the first meeting between these two teams. They split their regular-season meetings with the Islanders, but beat New Orleans at home 83-69 on December 31 while the only loss came in overtime at New Orleans on February 9, 84-78. Take that as evidence that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi already proved they could beat New Orleans by double digits this season. The only loss was a close game that went into OT.

Even that close loss paints a picture that tilts the field towards Corpus Christi. Texas A&M had advantages in the paint (40-32), fast-break points (21-8), and bench points (25-16). Those categories typically travel well during tournament play as they demonstrate strengths like athleticism, depth, and easy buckets.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi even holds a slight edge over recent form. The Islanders won three of their last four regular-season games to close the year with quality wins over East Texas A&M, Northwestern State, and Southeastern Louisiana while New Orleans lost to Southeastern Louisiana and McNeese just before the tournament began.

My final thought is that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is in a great spot to cover a small number here. They’re the fresher team, finished better in the Southland regular-season standings, have already beaten New Orleans by 14 points, and only need to win by a possession or two to cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 544. Texas AM Corpus (Southland Conf Game of the Year)

anta Clara can easily cover the spread against Pacific because they’ve already played one-sided games twice this season. Broncos won against Tigers 85-69 on January 14 and then again 71-56 on February 4, so they are 2-0 against Pacific this year and have already covered numbers close to or exceeding what the current line is set at. 

Santa Clara also holds a major edge in matchup history. Pacific lost 10 out of their last 11 games against Santa Clara and in both of those wins the Broncos dominated because they are simply the better offensive team. Santa Clara got 18 points from Christian Hammond and 17 points from Allen Graves in January, while in February the Broncos had four players score in double figures. Santa Clara does not need one player to shoot well to win this game.

Pacific also faces some situational disadvantages as well. The Tigers had to battle on Saturday and won 61-58 against Seattle just to get to this point, while Santa Clara came into this tournament as the No. 3 seed and will have fresher legs. Having an advantage in rest vs your opponent in conference tournament games matters. It matters a lot when your favorite also holds the roster advantage and has already solved their opponent twice.

Jim's Play: 820. Santa Clara (West Coast Quarterfinals)

Charlotte covering starts with recent trends as to how both teams have played against the spread. The Hornets are scorching at the window right now with a 9-0 ATS run and have also won 5-0 ATS in their last five at home. Miami, on the other hand, has been unable to cover at home recently: 1-5 ATS in their last six road trips against Charlotte, while Charlotte owns the 5-1 mark ATS in the last six meetings at home. Playing against the number in your building and owning those kinds of numbers is always important.

Depth is also an interesting story here. Per the NBA’s official injury report for game-day, Charlotte is coping with end-of-bench/G-League type losses along with Tidjane Salaun sidelined due to a calf injury. Miami’s report had not yet been submitted at the time of that report coming out, but several injury/tracker sites have shown Miami missing/playing through rotation players ahead of this matchup (Simone Fontecchio and Nikola Jovic have been listed as out for a lot of previews). Those kinds of injuries tend to show up late in games when you need contributions from the perimeter.

Charlotte has played confident basketball as of late, they’ve been steady at home with the number and Miami has struggled in this building to get any kind of cushion. If Charlotte plays physical, controls the boards and doesn’t turn the ball over live-ball to give Miami momentum, they will stay close for four quarters and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 502. Hornets (Southeast Div Game of the Month)

Iowa is a live cover against Michigan on Thursday because the matchup and the spot both work in the Hawkeyes’ favor, especially if you’re getting around +8.5 to +9.5 points. Michigan is the better team, but this sets up like a classic “win but don’t margin” game: the Wolverines have already clinched the Big Ten title, and this road trip functions more like a tune-up than a must-have, which can show up as flatter defensive urgency once they get a lead. Add in that Michigan is also playing without L.J. Cason (out for the season), which chips away at guard depth and ball-handling in a road environment where every empty possession matters.

From a style standpoint, Iowa’s slower tempo is exactly what an underdog wants when trying to cover a big number. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a superior team to create separation, and it keeps the game in that “trade baskets, stay within 6–10” range deep into the second half. Iowa also has the home-court edge at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and even in a season where they’ve been inconsistent, that building tends to help role players shoot and defend with more confidence, which is often the difference between losing by 6 and losing by 14.

The cover path is pretty straightforward: Iowa controls pace, avoids long scoring droughts, and makes Michigan execute in the half court instead of giving up transition runs. If the Hawkeyes can keep the first 10 minutes competitive and stay out of serious foul trouble, they don’t need to “outplay” Michigan for 40 minutes - they just need to prevent the one knockout stretch. With a spread hovering near nine, that’s a very realistic script for Iowa to hang around and cash the ticket even if Michigan still gets the win.

Jim's Play: 768. Iowa  (Big 10 Game of the Year)

I like Cincinnati to cover here on Tuesady at home against BYU in tis Big 12 conference game. The lines on this game are aligning perfectly for the Bearcats: they’re playing as the hotter team, they’re at home, and BYU is coming off of a significant loss to their regular lineup. Right now, the market has Cincy (-1.5, total 152.5) as a slight favorite in a game that’s going to be toss-up regardless, which sets up beautifully for home-court advantage and defense to win out.

Defense/sizing is Cincinnati’s biggest advantage over BYU. Cincy has been solid defensively all season long (17th in defensive efficiency) and their frontcourt is scheme-friendly to protect the rim and make shots difficult without fouling opponents, which is huge against BYU who’ve struggled to manufacture offense  without Richie Saunders (season-ending knee injury Feb. 14). Cincinnati is the hotter team entering this matchup as well, as they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games including an impressive win over Oklahoma State at home (91–68), particularly in Big 12 road games where they’re 7–2 at home. Scoring-wise, the Bearcats have benefited from burying threes in their last few games (they’ve hit 11+ 3-pointers in multiple games this stretch including 14 vs Oklahoma State), so if Cincinnati can shoot “normally” from deep at Fifth Third Arena, they’ll cruise to a 3–8 point victory that covers the spread.

Jim's Play: 610. Cincinnati (Big 12 Game of the Year)

Detroit should cover -7.5 against Cleveland on Friday, Feb. 27, 2026 because this matchup is shaping up as a significant depth and availability issue for the Cavs. Donovan Mitchell is OUT for Cleveland per the official NBA injury report with a groin strain, while Darius Garland is OUT, James Harden is questionable with a thumb fracture and other rotation pieces like Dennis Schröder and Keon Ellis are questionable as well. Depth doesn’t matter against any team, but it’s especially crucial when you play against one of the league’s best because Cleveland’s formula for keeping games within reach typically involves having enough on-ball creation to minimize long scoring droughts. Without Mitchell and Garland and if Harden is limited or inactive, Cleveland will need its patchwork guard rotation to generate offense on the road,  a scenario that historically leads to empty possessions and low-quality looks at the basket.

Detroit also comes into this game with both recent form and identity that bettors can trust to carry over to covers as a favorite: they’re 43-14 overall while playing elite defense, and they defeated Oklahoma City 124-116 behind two efficient outings from Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, showing that they can score on quality opponents as well. Plus, while I’m admittedly hesitant to lay points indiscriminately, the Pistons have gone 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games, so they’ve been meeting or exceeding expectations for the majority of their schedule. Bring it all together and the “cover script” for this game is pretty straightforward: Detroit’s D forces Cleveland into longer, more difficult possessions, the Cavs’ depleted backcourt can’t keep up and Detroit’s consistent offense finds ways to create separation down the stretch even if the game is close to start.

Jim's Play: 556. Pistons (NBA Central Div Game of the Month)

I like Minnesota to cover against Portland on Tuesday for a few reasons. First, this is the perfect bounce-back spot against a Blazers team that not only looks like they’re on upset alert but could very well be without a key rotation player. Recent news coming out of Portland has revealed Deni Avdija was ruled out for tonight’s game with a back issue. Avdija is a big part of their scoring and playmaking abilities as well as two-way balance, so Minnesota should have a slight advantage if they’re without him. Minnesota also dropped a tough one to Philadelphia on Monday, so Wolves-specific sites around the state have been advertising tonight’s game against Portland as must-win with an emphasis on defensive focus/urgency. This quickly turning into a tight Western Conference playoff race, Cover against Portland tonight and reset the challenge. Finally, Minnesota can actually cover the point spread based on recent meetings. The Wolves beat Portland 133-109 back on Feb. 11 and have won the first two contests against Portland this season, showing they can absolutely explode for wins when their offense is clicking. Road favorites are never guarantees, but if Minnesota limits their opponents on the perimeter, controls the boards, and exploit Portland’s weaker rotation, the Wolves will cover on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 521. Timberwolves (NBA Northwest Game of the Month)

It’s tough to confidently take Rutgers against Washington straight up, but the Scarlet Knights can cover the spread tonight because I think this has the setup of a competitive home game in Piscataway. We’re looking at a number around +4.5 to +5.5, which will give Rutgers some breathing room in what I expect to be a relatively close game. Washington is getting listed as just a slight road favorite at multiple books/previews, with totals around 140.5 to 142.5, and those games usually come down to a few possessions late with the dog cashing.

That slight tilt towards the Huskies is the first reason to back Rutgers on the line. Home court matters, and this is clearly being portrayed as a huge game for Rutgers’ conference positioning coming into Jersey Mike’s Arena. Local media is preaching to the Scarlet Knights that they need to win this game to keep pace and referring to tonight as their opportunity to bounce back from that road setback. Plus, when spreads are this short, crowd advantages matter more than ever in a Big Ten game where tempo will likely come down and possessions will be at a premium.

Speaking of betting previews, another reason to think Rutgers is live to cover tonight is recent ATS trend support. Rutgers has gone over the spread in 10 of its last 14 games. While they haven’t racked up many wins straight up, recent history shows games have been closer than expected when betting on Rutgers and that means the market may not have fully caught up to them just yet. That is exactly the betting profile you want to see when rooting for a home dog.

Last but not least, that total helps Rutgers’ chances to cover as well. The lower total obviously means fewer possessions and less of a chance for Washington to blow the game open. If Rutgers can avoid big scoring droughts, limit turnovers, and keep Washington out of the gym on easy transition baskets, they can keep it close enough to hang around inside the number late and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 602. Rutgers (Big 10 Game of the Month)

Portland can legitimately cover the spread on Sunday versus Phoenix as the Suns are quickly becoming depleted on the backcourt and wing positions. Phoenix suffered a loss to Dillon Brooks who suffered a fractured left hand on Saturday night and is expected to miss an extended amount of time. Devin Booker will miss at least one week due to a hip strain. Booker and Brooks combine for 53 points per game and taking them out of the Suns lineup drastically reduces their scoring ability and shot creation. This also plays more into Portland’s hands considering Phoenix played in double overtime just 24 hours earlier against Orlando.

For Portland’s side of things, covering isn’t rocket science: they don’t need to play perfect basketball, they simply need to avoid getting blown out by a Phoenix team without its two best scorers. Spot-wise, available matchup listings have Portland at 27-30 while Phoenix is 33-24, meaning we’re not at a talent disparity where a shorthanded favorite should automatically run away with the game. Portland is not healthy either, but the key swing factor is that Deni Avdija is only questionable on their injury report. While there’s no guarantee that Avdija plays, it at least gives the Blazers a chance at having another playmaker on the floor. The Blazers can more than likely replace Avdija’s production between themselves, but Phoenix losing Booker/Brooks is considerably harder to overcome.

Game script is the biggest angle in this one as the factors above lean towards this not being a blowout in favor of Phoenix. The Suns losing so much scoring, combined with playing heavy minutes just 24 hours earlier against Orlando, means that Portland has a chance to hang around in this game. The longer it stays close, the better Portland’s chances are at covering the spread. An underscored game favors the underdog as every possession counts more, and if Portland knocks down some timely threes, they can keep the scoreboard within reach. If Portland plays efficiently with the basketball and its best players produce, the Blazers have a chance to cover and even outright win this game.

Jim's Play: 567. Trailblazers 

I like the big dog here on Saturday as Wyoming getting about nine-points at Grand Canyon. The Cowboys can lean on enough offense to keep games within reach as long as they don’t suffer extended scoring droughts. Most books have Wyoming around +9  which allows them to lose by a couple possessions and still hit. Wyoming has the scoring profile to thrive on that kind of ticket as well, averaging right at 78.0 points per game while Grand Canyon’s offense is more middling (about 75.2 ppg) and relies more on defense than simply exploding for separation. That’s key because while Grand Canyon has been strong overall, they have not been automatic against the number with recent ATS tendencies and home/favorite ATS splits painting a more mediocre picture. There’s even a slight situational play on Wyoming as a road dog as well: while the Cowboys have been atrocious on the road, their formula for success is simple in a game with a mid-140s total, as some made threes and generally playing at a slower pace can prevent the deficit from becoming insurmountable. Grand Canyon is obviously very good at home so there is risk, but if Wyoming takes care of the basketball and gets even game from its primary scorers, I’m liking +8.5 Wyoming.

Jim's Play: 775. Wyoming (Mountain West Game of the Month)

Saint Louis presents themselves as a strong candidate to bet on Friday as this matchup hits many “win by margin” boxes at home. The Billikens are sitting at about 7.5 points at Chaifetz Arena and have already proved they can deal with VCU’s pressure and athleticism by winning game one 71–62 on the road back on January 7th. With that proof of concept already out of the way, the cover path looks pretty clean: SLU has more ways to score and has been the more consistent team all season (they’re 24-2 entering this game while VCU is 21-6) so if Saint Louis plays to their capabilities they don’t need to shoot efficiently to create a separation. The market total is also high (mid 160s), which usually means pace/possessions; more possessions = better team offense with more shot creators pulls away late especially at home when runs are easier to come by and the whistle/energy typically favors the home team. Finally, VCU lives by the three and volume shooting from the perimeter, so if SLU can chase them off the line and force a couple empty trips early the Rams’ scoring can become very streaky, which leads to covers in the final minutes of close games (8-12 point win).

Jim's Play: 888. St Louis 

I like Santa Clara at home on Saturday night against their WCC foe, Gonzaga.  The biggest reason Santa Clara can hang is home-court + current form. The Broncos have been undefeated at home this season (13-0) and they’re coming in on a long conference surge with the league lead in hand. When a team is protecting its building like that, getting 4-ish points becomes attractive because they don’t need to dominate Gonzaga for 40 minutes. They just need to keep it within a possession or two and be live late, which is exactly what an unbeaten home profile suggests.

Matchup-wise, Santa Clara’s cover lane is that they’re built to score with balance and spacing, not just one hot hand. Gonzaga’s ceiling is higher inside (they proved it in the first meeting), but Santa Clara can keep pace by turning this into a game where both teams are trading quality looks instead of letting Gonzaga dictate everything at the rim. Gonzaga won the earlier matchup 89-77 in Spokane, so the Broncos have a very clear “what needs to change” blueprint: cleaner perimeter defense, fewer empty possessions, and more efficiency from their own shooters at home.

Another underrated angle is game-state pressure. This isn’t a random mid-February game. It’s a first-place West Coast Conference showdown with real stakes, and Santa Clara is playing to hold the top spot in front of its crowd. Those spots tend to compress margins because both teams shorten rotations, possessions get more deliberate late, and you see fewer “sleepwalk” stretches. That usually favors the team catching points, especially at home.

How Santa Clara covers: they avoid giving up a string of rim runs and offensive rebounds, they hit enough threes to prevent Gonzaga from loading up inside, and they keep it in a one- or two-possession game heading into the final media timeout. If that happens, +4.5 is live the whole way, and the moneyline upset is absolutely on the table in a game that’s already priced as “close.”

Jim's Play: 786. Santa Clara ( West Coast Conf Game of the Year) 

Drexel is in a strong spot to win and cover tonight because the matchup checks three boxes that matter for laying a small number at home: recent head-to-head proof, home-court form, and a clear efficiency edge when they get clean looks. We already saw how these teams match up when Drexel is sharp. In the first meeting on January 15, Drexel blew the doors off Monmouth 73-51. The box score tells you why that kind of result is repeatable: Drexel got efficient shooting (15 made threes), moved the ball (18 assists), and Monmouth couldn’t generate easy offense (32% overall shooting). Even if Monmouth plays better tonight (likely), that first game shows Drexel has a style edge when they can set their defense and force Monmouth into tougher half-court possessions.

The “how Drexel covers” path is pretty clean. Monmouth’s recent preview notes they’re coming off a road win at Stony Brook and they’ve been active defensively (season-high steals in that game), with Jason Rivera-Torres as the headliner. That’s exactly why Drexel’s ball security and shot selection matter: if Drexel avoids live-ball turnovers, Monmouth loses the easiest way to score and has to grind for buckets. In a tight spread game, cutting off transition points is often the difference between winning by 1-2 possessions versus sweating it out.

Game script to like: Drexel starts better at home, makes Monmouth work in the half court, and hits enough perimeter shots to prevent Monmouth’s pressure from turning into momentum runs. If Drexel plays anything close to the efficiency they showed in the first meeting, they’re the side more likely to finish the last 4 minutes cleaner.

Jim's Play: 752. Drexel  (CAA Game of the Month)

I’m taking Oklahoma State to cover (and outright win) tonight for three primary reasons. The first two deal with controlling the game’s “math”: extra possessions + minimizing mistakes.  Oklahoma State comes into this game with the superior overall record (16-7 vs 12-12) and have proven they can score at will on the road, averaging 84.8 points per game. That’s important when you’re catching a short number like +2.5 or +3 because you don’t need to be perfect, just enough to keep it within one- or two-possession range for 40 minutes.

There are a few reasons Oklahoma State can effectively implement that game plan but the biggest edge on paper is on the glass. Several previews I’ve read have harped on Arizona State’s atrocious rebounding, which presents a “low variance” opportunity for Oklahoma State as the underdog. Meaning you can be a little off from behind the arc and still stay in games by grabbing offensive rebounds and preventing the same from Cowboys.  If Oklahoma State makes this a possession game (end defensive possessions with rebounds and create extra possessions with offensive boards) covering becomes likely and an outright win isn’t out of the question.

The second reason stems from the ball security and execution factor late in games. Take a look at Oklahoma State’s notes on freshman point guard Kanye Clary.

First-Year Freshman PG, more assists than turnovers in 20 consecutive games, intelligent playmaking and lack of turnovers is invaluable when you’re backing a short dog on the road. He cuts into live-ball turnovers (freely given gifts to the defense), runouts, and forces ASU to be cleaner with the ball when the game slows down late. All of that negates what Arizona State wants to do: get out and score in transition. The Sun Devils have been elite at it, too, ranking near the top of the nation in fast-break points per game. If Oklahoma State forces ASU to play half-court basketball, the spread jumps out at you.

Why I like Oklahoma State to cover the spread: Arizona State is laying points AT HOME (yeah, seriously) against a team that has been more competitive in conference play than them. Arizona State is sitting at 3-8 while Oklahoma State’s Big 12 record is much stronger. When you have a game setup like this I want the team that can win the possession battle AND limit “snowball” stretches of games. Oklahoma State has check both of those boxes tonight.

Oklahoma State can win this game outright if they come out +0.5 or better on the rebounding column, limit turnovers, and prevent ASU from getting easy buckets in transition. If they do that, they’ll be right in the game with a chance to win in the last 4 minutes, and when you’re getting points in sports betting, that’s exactly where you want to be.

Jim's Play: 629. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Game of the Month)