I like Memphis and Tulane to go OVER the total on Friday,, because both offenses are built to create explosive plays and both teams play at a relatively quick pace. Memphis comes in averaging more than 500 yards of offense per game, and the Tigers have been especially efficient through the air. Quarterback Marcus Stokes has already thrown 16 touchdown passes, while Memphis ranks near the top nationally in passing efficiency metrics. 

The matchup also favors Memphis offensively. Tulane has struggled to generate pressure, ranking near the bottom of the country in sacks per game, and its pass defense has also been vulnerable. Memphis ranks 12th nationally in EPA per pass, while Tulane sits 109th in EPA allowed per pass. That gives the Tigers a very clear path to 30-plus points. 

Tulane should contribute enough on the other side to keep the scoring moving. The Green Wave have been explosive offensively, particularly in the running game, and Memphis has had trouble defending the run. Memphis ranks 118th nationally in yards allowed per rush, while Tulane ranks in the 85th percentile in explosive-play rate. If Tulane can consistently stay ahead of the chains, it should be able to extend drives and create scoring opportunities of its own. 

The tempo is another plus for the OVER. Tulane ranks 25th nationally in seconds per play, while Memphis ranks 35th, so neither team is likely to slow this game down. More possessions mean more opportunities for big plays, short fields and scoring drives. The OVER has also hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams. 

Jim’s Play: 117. Memphis / Tulane Over

My best bet for Thursday night is to take the OVER on this Thursday night NFL game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. I feel like both these teams should score well above what the total is saying they will. Last week both of these defenses were tested and we know injuries play a huge role in the NFL as well. The Seahawks scored 29 points on Sunday against San Francisco but allowed 32 to get through. The Denver Broncos defeated the Chargers by a score of 23-17. Since Denver is at home I think their offense can find a way to reach 20+ points on Thursday.

As mentioned before Denver will be missing some key players in their secondary. They will be missing All-Pro corner back Pat Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga. Corner Back Riley Moss is also listed as a question mark for Thursday's game. This should allow Seattle to really exploit this weakness. Quarterback Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are one of the best passing duos in the league right now. They should be able to gain quite a few points against Denver's defense.

I believe Denver can find some points as well against the Seattle defense. We saw them struggle to stop San Francisco's offense last week. They will be missing their starting linebacker Drake Thomas which could also be beneficial for Denver's offense. Bo Nix has not had his best games but should be able to find a good flow playing on his home turf. As long as Denver is not stuck in long drives that lead to field goals I think they can rack up some points. They will just have to make sure they convert when they get in the red zone.

There could be some turnovers that help out both teams as well. Seattle gave up 4 turnovers to San Francisco on Sunday. Both of these teams can throw for big yardage if given the opportunity. We don't need this game to go crazy high to hit the over. Both teams just need to score in the 20's. My best bet for Thursday is to take the OVER.

Jim’s Play: 109. OVER

The main concern entering tonight's game for Delaware is the quarterback position. Nick Minicucci is still battling the knee injury that he suffered against Virginia last week, and has been an unknown going into tonight. This matters because Delaware has yet to establish a running game of any kind, averaging only around 99 yards per game on the ground. Delaware loses a lot of their mobility and downfield explosiveness if Minicucci can’t go or is less than 100 percent.

Middle Tennessee might not have been lighting up scoreboards, but their biggest strength is their quarterback play. Roman Gagliano has tossed eight touchdowns to just one interception, while running back Antonio Martin has racked up 385 yards on the ground. Additionally, MTSU has done a great job taking care of the football, which will be key when playing against a Delaware defense that can get pressure.

Speaking of Delaware's defense, their pass rush should terrorize an MTSU offense that has been atrocious on third down. The Blue Hens are going to win this game if they can get the Blue Raiders behind the chains consistently.

However, Middle Tennessee has the benefit of home field and should be more settled on offense. The Blue Raiders have been blown up in their last two games by a combined score of 55-0, but this is a massive step down in competition. They should also be well prepared for this matchup, having had an extra week to gameplan for Delaware.

I think we see a pretty conservative game as both teams lean on their defenses and try to win the field position battle. Delaware will make enough plays to keep it interesting, but I just have a feeling MTSU's advantage at quarterback and ability to win the turnover battle ends up winning out late.

Both teams are 1-4 to the Under this season, and I just don't see Delaware putting up a lot of points with question marks at quarterback.

Jim’s Play: Delaware/Mid Tenn State UNDER

Buffalo arrives averaging 31.8 points per game and Josh Allen continues to be one of the most challenging quarterbacks to stop from reaching the end zone, as he possesses the ability to beat you with his arm and legs. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, providing another avenue to develop explosive plays while staying ahead of the chains against the Rams defense.

However, Los Angeles should be able to do plenty of scoring as well. Matthew Stafford has two dynamic weapons in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to attack a Buffalo secondary that just allowed 405 yards and 29 points against New England. Buffalo will also be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which might open up even more opportunities for a Rams rushing attack that's averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Los Angeles has the balance in their offense to force Buffalo into tough decisions. If they load up to stop the run, Stafford can consistently attack downfield. If they sit back to help their secondary, then the Rams can pound away with the run. Driving downfield and putting up high numbers should not be a problem for this Rams offense. I expect them to put up 27-plus points.

We also saw these two quarterbacks go back-and-forth last time these teams faced off at SoFi Stadium. The 44-42 final score featured six touchdowns by Josh Allen. While I'm not expecting 86 points this time around, I use this as proof of how fast this game can turn into a shootout when both quarterbacks get in rhythm.

Jim’s Play: 478. Bills/Rams Over

I'm going to take the OVER here on Sunday between the Detroit Lions and the Arizona Cardinals. Detroit has gone over in every game they've played this season. They have a great offense and their defense can't seem to keep teams under. They are averaging close to 30 points per game so far this year. Jared Goff has passed for 1,214 yards 9 TD and 0 INT this season. He has many weapons to throw the ball to such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. The Arizona defense has given up at least 31 points in their last 3 games. They haven't been able to put much pressure on the quarterback which will allow Goff to continue to have great games.

Detroit can also score plenty of points against Arizona's defense. They allowed 32 points to the Panthers last week and lost 32-26. Arizona lost 36-24 to the Giants last week. They have some good weapons to help Jacoby Brissett out like Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Jeremiyah Love. Arizona will be missing Marvin Harrison Jr. but should still be able to gain some points against Detroit's weak defense. If Detroit goes out and takes an early lead Arizona will be forced to throw the ball more. Detroit can score close to 35 points by themselves and Arizona will definitely add to that number. I believe these two teams will score a combined 57+ points. This number went up from 49.5 to 54.5 which makes this play harder but I still think we see 57 points.

Jim’s Play: 471. Lions/Cards Over

Expect a high scoring game this Thursday. The Cowboys have scored over 30 points in their last 3 games. Including their win over Houston last Sunday with a final score of 34-30. Dak Prescott has been throwing the ball around with ease. Having CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will only help the Cowboys offense. Tampa Bay will be missing their best safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Which will allow the Cowboys to continue to throw for big yards. Tampa Bay's defense has been allowing a lot of points and big plays. So I expect their rookie QB to move the football. Jalon Daniels is a mobile QB so I think the Bucs will spread the field out. Dallas has gone over the current number in all 4 games this season. So I think we will see another over Thursday night. Play the OVER! 

Jim's Play: 307. Bucs/Cowboys OVER 

There is a lot to like about the UNDER  in this week's Dolphins-Vikings game on Sunday. Miami has been unable to end drives effectively and only have 36 points on the season after 3 games. Willis only has 1 TD pass to go with 2 interceptions and has been sacked 9 times already. They will be going up against a Vikings defense that has recorded 14 sacks and at least 2 takeaways in every game.

Minnesota also has struggles on offense. They are 3-0, but have only gained 246 net yards per game and Kyler Murray has yet to find his rhythm throwing the ball. They will also be without Justin Jefferson who was ruled out today with an ankle injury. So they will have to rely more on Aaron Jones and field position and play defense.

Miami will have to take care of Willis against Brian Flores blitz heavy scheme as well. Expect a lot of short passes, QB scrambles and no turnovers.

This game started out at 43.5 so the line has come down a few points, but there is still some value on the UNDER here.

Jim's Play: 269. Dolphins / Vikings Under

The Cardinals and Giants game should go over this number. It's sitting at 43.5 which should be very attainable. Arizona has given up 81 points over the last 3 games averaging 27 points per game. They have not had much of a pass rush and have allowed some big plays to go for them. They have also been giving up a lot on the ground which will allow Skattebo and Najee Harris to have a good game and help ease the load on Jameis Winston.

I think Arizona can score as well. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 652 yards 4 TD's and only 1 INT. He has completed 82 of his 117 passes. Last week we saw that Arizona is willing to throw the ball a lot with 52 pass attempts against the 49ers. They will be able to throw the ball short and quick against the Giants who have only 1 sack over the last 3 games.

Also the Giants pass rush will be depleted without Brian Burns. Which will allow Brissett to throw the ball more to McBride and keep drives alive. Cardinals DE Josh Sweat is questionable with a groin injury.

Doesn't have to be a blow out for this to hit. Just 27-23 or 27-24 would do it. Both teams have shown that they can give up big plays on the front end.

Jim's Play: 257. Cardinals / Giants OVER

Jacksonville is well-positioned to win and cover here on Sunday against the Bengals, and this matchup equally projects well to hit OVER the total. Trevor Lawrence has been efficient with his play this season, and Jacksonville should be able to attack the Cincinnati secondary that has allowed fantasy owners plenty of production through the air. If the Jaguars continue to finish drives as they have been in the red zone, they should be putting up scores in the upper 20s.

Joe Burrow will have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to work with as well, and playing at home should allow the Bengals to put up numbers even against a formidable Jacksonville defense. This all adds up to a game that should go back-and-forth rather than being a battle of defenses.

With both quarterbacks having the ability to make explosive plays, Jacksonville getting points holds value and the total suggests a high-scoring affair as well.

Jim's Play: 261. Jags / Bengals Over

I believe we have a good OVER pick on the Colts vs Commanders on Sunday morning in London. Both teams have struggled to stop the pass and Indianapolis is allowing the most total yards at 417.3 per game, worst in the NFL. So Washington should be able to move the ball against them, even without Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota proved that they can score without Daniels last week, throwing for 19/31 for 183 yards and 3 TD's with no interceptions. They were able to come away with a 33-31 win against Seattle.

The Colts should be able to find ways to score as well. Washington is very good against the run, they allow the 3rd least rushing yards per game. So Jones will have to throw the ball, which should work in our favor. They've allowed more points to the pass, so that's where we can attack them. Josh Downs has been the Colts best receiver and they can throw to TE Tyler Warren as well.

They will be missing Keenan Allen with a groin injury, but they have Downs, Darius Slayton and Tyler Warren. The Colts can score against the Commanders pass defense and Daniel Jones can also give them short fields by throwing interceptions and fumbling the ball away. He already has 3 INT's and 2 fumbles this season.

As I mentioned, Washington scored 33 points last week, they can capitalize on turnovers. If Mariota can throw for 2-3 touchdowns and Indianapolis can take advantage of the Commanders coverage, there's plenty of room to go over 47.5.

Jim's Play: 251. Colts/Commanders Over

My one total on Saturday in college football is in this game, as I like to go over Purdue and Illinois on Saturday. I feel that both teams will be able to put up enough points to go over in this big ten matchup.

Illinois has scored 34 points a game this season and Purdue has been putting up 32 a game. They both allow as well Purdue is allowing 39.5 points a game and Illinois is allowing 26.5 points a game. Every game that Illinois and Purdue have played this year has gone over.

Purdue will be able to throw the football this weekend. They average around 320 yards per game passing and Illinois allows 255 yards a game passing. Last week Illinois allowed 518 total yards and 42 points to Ohio State so Purdue will have a chance to gain yards against them.

Illinois will have a chance to score in the 30's as well. Purdue allowed 49 points to Notre Dame last week and Illinois was able to rack up 462 yards of offense against Ohio state. So the Illinois offense has been gaining yards even if the score doesn't show it.

With Purdue being able to throw the ball and Illinois having a weak defense, both teams should be in the 30's or higher.

Jim’s Play: 167. Purdue/Illinois OVER

The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints offenses have both looked good enough through the first couple weeks that I believe this game hits the OVER.

Through two games, Las Vegas has scored at least 26 points and averages 26.5 points per game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had three passing touchdowns in each game, and should find holes to exploit against a New Orleans defense that is giving up 24 points and 340.5 yards per game. The Saints rushing defense in particular has been poor, allowing 136.5 yards on the ground per game.

New Orleans has even been better through the air, ranking second in the NFL with 305.5 passing yards per game. Quarterback Tyler Shough has amassed 662 yards through the air (best in the NFL) and 4 touchdowns. He has enjoyed a reliable target in Chris Olave, who has 18 receptions for 268 yards.

Combined, these offenses are averaging over 53 points per game, which is way too high to go UNDER the current total of around 43.5. Even if both teams regress down to earth and score less than their season averages, there is plenty of room for this game to go Over.

Not to mention, game weather will not be a factor in New Orleans as both teams’ passing games should thrive in the dome. If the Saints come out firing through Shough and Olave, the Raiders will be forced to continue scoring in catch-up mode. Both teams should reach the mid 20s, and there should be enough explosive pass plays and red zone chances to hit the OVER.

Jim’s Play: 483. Raiders/Saints OVER

The NFL will play its first-ever game in Rio at the Maracana Stadium, with the Dallas Cowboys designated as the home team but playing on a “neutral” field. Travel and preparation will be different for both teams as they adjust their typical game-week schedules to account for an international matchup. The time difference is minimal, but a long flight and foreign environment could still throw off offensive rhythms and game planning. 

Concerns about the field at the Maracanã have also arisen as of late. Players from the soccer team that shares the stadium with the NFL team have voiced their concerns about the playing surface, leading the NFL to work with stadium operators to ensure the field is up to par. If the grass is even slightly soggy or bumpy, big cuts will be minimized and deep passes could be tough to come by. Both teams could turn to their running games more than usual.

That would benefit Baltimore. Through two games, Dallas has allowed 347 yards on the ground. The Ravens also rank at 5.3 yards per carry. Between Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has every incentive to run the ball at Dallas. Running the ball will help the Ravens score points, but it also keeps the clock running and minimizes drives. 

Baltimore’s defense also proved it was improving last week, holding the Saints to 24 points as the Ravens offense struggled to score (17 points). Baltimore will also monitor injuries to Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley and John Simpson heading into the game, which could lead to an even more run-focused attack if they are unable to go.

The total is high into the low 50’s. I feel that is still too high for a neutral-site international game. Baltimore will want to get the run game going with Henry and ride that to control the game clock and keep Dak Prescott off the field.

Jim’s Play: 485. Ravens/Cowboys Under (in BRAZIL)

I’m taking the UNDER with both offenses struggling mightily through two weeks.

The Titans are averaging just 148 yards through the air and 95 yards on the ground. Rookie QB Cam Ward hasn’t turned the ball over, but he hasn’t given them many opportunities for explosive plays either. Tennessee put up 17 and 20 points against their first two opponents.

The Giants offense is just as ugly after scoring only six points against the Rams last week. Giants QB Jaxson Dart is out the rest of the season and will roll with Jameis Winston who finished 11-of-27 passing for 111 yards and an interception against Los Angeles. New York is averaging 179.5 passing yards per game.

Tennessee’s defense played well last week too, holding Philadelphia to 24 points and only 89 yards on 32 carries. The Titans focus on stacking the box and forcing teams to execute long drives instead of giving up big plays.

The flow of this game should favor longer drives and punts as both teams feel their way along through the air and focus on the run game to keep their quarterbacks upright.

Jim’s Play:467. Titans/Giants UNDER

I will take the Over in the New York Jets and Detroit Lions matchup on Sunday, leaning more towards Detroit’s explosive offense matching up against this Jets defense.

Detroit has scored 31 points per game while quarterback Jared Goff has thrown six touchdowns to zero interceptions. Receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs give Detroit multiple options to make explosive plays happen, while also playing indoors at Ford Field to maximize the offense’s potential.

I’m more concerned with Detroit’s defense, though. The Detroit Lions have allowed 71 points and 915 yards in two games, averaging more than 450 yards allowed per game. The Lions’ secondary will be without cornerback Avonte Maddox, who was recently placed on injured reserve.

Between weak areas on both defenses, I think both teams’ offenses should shine on Sunday. Jets quarterback Geno Smith is completing 70.8% of his passes while avoiding interceptions, and while Wilson and Hall give New York weapons to capitalize on Detroit’s deficiencies. The Jets scored 23 and 17 points in their first two games, but I believe they can find the end zone enough to push their way into the mid-20s.

Stopping Detroit’s offense won’t be easy either, as the Jets will be without defensive players like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kiko Mauigoa and David Onyemata. If Detroit puts up its season average of around 30 points, New York only needs about 20 points to finish Over this number.

Considering Detroit’s offense and struggling defense, I think both offenses get enough offense to finish Over.

Jim’s Play: 465. Jets/Lions OVER

I’m taking  Oregon and USC going OVER the total on Saturday, especially if the number stays settled around 62.5.

Oregon and USC offenses have been unstoppable so far this season. Oregon is scoring 49.7 points per game, while USC is putting up 43.0 points per game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has 849 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions, while USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has 1,173 passing yards and 12 touchdowns.

The main reason why I like the Over, though, is USC’s defense. The Trojans gave up 35 points to Rutgers, 30 points to Louisiana and then 26 points to San Jose State. USC’s defense has been terrible against the pass and run, and that won’t change against an Oregon offense that’s averaging nearly 50 points per game.

USC’s offense should help out as well. The Trojans have scored at least 39 points in every game this season, including their 42-35 victory over Rutgers last week. Oregon has given up 22 points per game, but they did allow 39 points to Oklahoma State, so the Trojans should have scoring opportunities at home.

All three of Oregon’s games have gone OVER, and three of USC’s first four games have gone Over the total as well.

With two efficient quarterbacks, high-powered offenses and a weak USC defense, I believe both teams will score well into the 30s or more.

Jim’s Play: 399. Oregon/USC OVER

I look for Wisconsin and Penn State to stay under their total here on Saturday. Penn State’s defense combined with the style this game figures to be played in favor of the UNDER.

Penn State has yet to allow more than 10 points in a game, tallying just 22 points allowed on the season. Their opponents average just 201 yards per game, good for third in the nation. 

Wisconsin’s last two opponents combined for 90 points scored against them (Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan). Their toughest opponent has been Notre Dame, who the Badgers scored just 10 points against.

Penn State also has plenty of incentive to lean on their rushing attack and control the time of possession. The Nittany Lions are expected to play without their top receiver Koby Howard. Howard had racked up 344 yards through the air before injuring his ankle last week. Penn State may have to dink-and-dunk their way down the field without their top target. Wisconsin’s defense should also help the UNDER get there. The Badgers allow about 19 points per game and have covered the Under in seven of their last eight games as an underdog.

Both teams' ground-and-pound game should limit possessions on Saturday and give the under a great shot for the win. 

Jim’s Play: 357. Wisconsin / Penn State UNDER

I like Atlanta and Green Bay to go under the total in their week 3 opening game tonight. 

Atlanta’s offense has been lackluster through two weeks, scoring just 16 points total including three points against Carolina last week. The Falcons have made it clear they’ll turn to backup quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is starting in his first game since tearing his ACL last November. Playing on a short week against a stout Green Bay defense, Atlanta simply won’t have many opportunities to score quickly.

Green Bay has its own injury concerns that could help tamp down scoring as well. Star receiver Jayden Reed will miss this game and both starting guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele are out. The absence of two starting linemen could force Green Bay to lean more on short passes and a steady running game as opposed to taking shots downfield.

Each team is also coming off a short turnaround week on Thursday. Green Bay pushed its backup quarterbacks in overtime against the Jets on Sunday while Atlanta had to travel west after their own draining loss in Carolina.

Weather won’t be too much of a factor as temperatures are only expected to reach 62 degrees at game time with very little wind in Lambeau Field. Add it all up and this UNDER is more about offensive inefficiencies and lack of scoring opportunities than rain-soaked skies.

Considering Atlanta may struggle to score 17 points and Green Bay has no incentive to play smash-mouth football if they’re dictating play. I like the UNDER here tonight. 

Jim’s Play: 301. Falcons/Packers UNDER

There are a few reasons I like Washington and Dallas OVER the total this Sunday.

Jayden Daniels vs the Dallas defense that allowed New York's Jaxson Dart to go off in week 1. He was able to throw for 23/29 with 3 TD's and no interceptions. Dallas allowed 28 points that day and Daniels is a bigger threat out of the backfield as well. Washington was able to get 132 yards from the ground in their first game. They will be missing LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker as well. So it should be tough to stop Daniels from running and throwing the ball.

Dallas should have their offense clicking more as well compared to their week 1 loss to the Giants 28-20. They have Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens out wide. Washington allowed some big plays against the Eagles. Which should allow Dak Prescott to make some plays as well. They will be missing LB Frankie Luvu who was one of there better defenders last week and DT Javon Kinlaw is questionable with a back injury.

Both teams are 0-1 coming into this NFC East matchup and their defenses left a lot to be desired. There games combined for 94 points last week with both offenses not playing that great. So if they can play better and their defense continues to struggle we should see a score in the low to mid 50's at least.

Jim’s Play: 271. Commanders/Cowboys OVER

I like the Saints and Ravens to go OVER here on Sunday. Both teams have shown some explosive points production in week 1.

Baltimore scored 41 points and gained 506 yards against the Colts to start the season. Derrick Henry went off for 144 yards and 3 TDs and Lamar Jackson added more rush/passing threat as well. With Zay Flowers listed as questionable with a hamstring, Baltimore should still be able to gain a lot of yards especially if they can control the line of scrimmage.

The Saints offense was able to score 30 points as well against the Lions. Tyler Shough threw for the most yards in the NFL last week and Chris Olave went for 10 receptions and 182 yards. Olave is listed questionable due to a hamstring injury so we will see. But Alvin Kamara did practice in full and will be good to go.

Ravens have some injuries on their defense that could lead to the over. DT Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Teddye Buchanan are out and TREY Hendrickson is listed as questionable. They also will be missing CB T.J. Tampa. This could allow the Saints to rack up more points and maybe get to the low 20's.

Take the OVER here on Sunday!

Jim’s Play: 263. Saints/Ravens OVER

I like the Vikings-Bears OVER on Sunday as I look for a real shootout today.  Chicago tallied 59 points and 552 yards against Carolina last week. Caleb Williams passed for 269 yards and 2 scores, and the Bears’ backs ran for 291 yards against the Panthers. Williams should have everything he needs to have plenty of options against Minnesota’s defense, which allowed 419 yards last week against Green Bay.

Minnesota will have some offense as well. Carson Wentz is slated to start in place of an inactive Kyler Murray. Wentz entered Week 1’s game and finished it 12-of-19 passing for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns as Minnesota overcame a slow start to defeat Green Bay 39-22. Minnesota still features Justin Jefferson as well as weapons to produce against Chicago’s defense, which allowed 37 points against Cleveland in its season opener.

The OVER hit easily in both teams’ Week 1 games. Chicago’s game produced 96 total points with Carolina. Both games easily cleared this distance, as Minnesota’s game finished with 61 points. The OVER opened around 45.5 and is currently floating around the upper-40s after market adjustments.

Weather will obviously play a factor, as there’s potential for wind and rain in Chicago on Sunday. But both teams have capable run games that can alleviate pressure from having to pass perfectly. Sit back and enjoy the show today as the points fly. 

Jim’s Play: 253. Vikings/Bears OVER (NFC North Total of the Month)

I like the case for Detroit and Buffalo to stay UNDER the total Thursday night, and Detroit’s offensive-line situation is an important part of it. Detroit will be without starting LG Christian Mahogany and RT Blake Miller. Starting center Cade Mays is already on IR. Juice Scruggs had been dealing with a knee injury earlier in the week and was limited in practice, but he was full-go Wednesday. Detroit is trotting out lots of new bodies to an already difficult road environment. It could impact Jared Goff‘s ability to stay upright and it could impact Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability to find holes.

Healthier teams may want to pass more to take pressure off their offensive lines, but Detroit may not have that luxury. If Detroit leans on Gibbs and the run, they’ll give their offensive line less chances to make mistakes while keeping Josh Allen and the Buffalo pass rush on the sidelines. Buffalo gave up 124 rushing yards in Week 1, and the Bills ranked 28th in the league against the run last season allowing 136.2 yards per game. Detroit has every reason to want to run the ball down Buffalo’s throats. Long drives on the ground will keep this game under 60 minutes and bode well for the Under.

Detroit barely got to 31 points last week, requiring overtime to hit that mark against New Orleans. Buffalo jumped out to 36 points in the first half alone against Houston. I don’t expect both offenses to be as efficient in a short week’s turnaround. Thursday nights are rarely track meets. Buffalo can score, but Detroit doesn’t have to completely stop Josh Allen for this Under to work. If Detroit’s running game controls the clock, and Detroit’s patchwork offensive line struggles to create chunk plays, this game can easily stay under that lofty total here on Thursday. 

Jim’s Play: 103. Lions / Bills Under

There are plenty of good reasons to play the Under in the Broncos- Chiefs game Monday night, especially with the number close to 42.5 points. 

Kansas City ranked among the top teams to the Under last year, finishing 13-4 to the Under and 8-1 to the Under at home. Denver also trended Under with an 11-8 record, while the Under is 6-for-6 in the last six meetings between these AFC West foes.

It starts with Denver's defense. The Broncos ranked third in yards per game allowed last season, sixth in opponent third-down conversion percentage and first in the NFL with 4.0 sacks per game. That pass rush will be important Monday because Kansas City will be without starting left tackle Josh Simmons (ankle), leaving undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to make his NFL debut in the lineup against a Denver defensive front that can provide pressure from multiple spots.

Kansas City also has reasons to be conservative with Patrick Mahomes back under center. While the Chiefs' quarterback is fully healthy and expected to start, he is coming off surgery to repair torn ACL and LCL ligaments in his left knee suffered in December. Expect Kansas City to err on the side of caution with Mahomes, which could mean a heavy dose of running back Kenneth Walker III. Andy Reid will have the option of leaning on the ground game and quick passing game, which can shorten the field, manage the clock and limit possessions.

The Broncos could do the same with quarterback Bo Nix. Denver won't feel the need to force the issue through the air because its defense should keep the Broncos in the game. Long drives, commitment to the run and ball security would all point to lower-scoring affair..

This has the potential to be a physical game between division rivals where both defenses set the tone. If Denver can disrupt Mahomes while not having to send extra rushers and Kansas City's defense can limit big plays from Nix, touchdowns may be at a premium. I'll take the Under. 

Jim’s Play;  481. Broncos/ Chiefs UNDER

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants both have what it takes to put up big numbers Sunday night, setting the stage for an OVER bet.

Dallas features one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens leading the way. The Cowboys averaged 5.9 yards per play last season, which ranked third-best in football. This is a perfect matchup for Dallas to take advantage and score explosively against a Giants secondary that has plenty of questions.

The Giants also have what it takes to keep pace in the scoring department. Quarterback Jaxson Dart gives New York a dual-threat quarterback who can damage Dallas both through the air and on the ground. Cam Skattebo should provide the Giants offense with a physical running attack as well. Wide receiver Malik Nabers is officially questionable for Sunday’s game, but practiced fully throughout the entire week. That should be good enough for Nabers to suit up and give Dart another dangerous playmaker.

Dallas’ defense should also play a factor in bettors trusting the OVER. Dallas ranked just 24th in EPA per play allowed last season. They also just switched defensive schemes, which could lead to early-season communication breakdowns. This will allow Dart to capitalize on big plays downfield or pick up chunks of yards with his legs.

Cowboys and Giants games have historically been high-scoring affairs. The OVER is 6-for-8 in their last eight games dating back to the 2022 season. Dallas won 40-37 over New York last season. The OVER was 13-4 in Cowboys games last year, while it went 11-6 with the Giants. Prescott and Dallas have shown they can score in the upper 20s or low 30s, and the Giants passing offense should be better than people expect. Both teams should have enough scoring opportunities to push OVER here on Monday Night.

Jim’s Play: 479. Cowboys/ Giants OVER (NFL Total of the Week)

I’m liking the UNDER in Washington Commanders-Philadelphia Eagles, especially if you can get the current total sitting around 47.5.

Philadelphia’s defense is the biggest reason why. The Eagles allowed just 19.1 points per game in 2025, which ranked fifth-best in the NFL. They have an excellent front that should cause Washington problems, especially inside where Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis can wreak havoc. This matters because the interior of Washington’s offensive line has been a concern coming into Week 1.

Washington isn’t a team that scored frequently last season either, as the Commanders averaged only 20.9 points per game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is fully healthy again, but is now operating in a new offense with David Blough and is coming off an injury-marred 2025. Early camp reports have indicated that Washington could use more motion and play-action along with a more methodical rushing attack. Both could help shorten the game and keep Philadelphia from having as many offensive opportunities.

Philadelphia has motivation to play that way, too. The Eagles lost A. J. Brown in free agency and there are major questions about who will step up behind DeVonta Smith in the passing game. That likely leads to an even bigger focus on Saquon Barkley and the running game. Philadelphia won’t feel the need to have a shootout against Washington. If the Eagles can run the ball efficiently, win the time of possession battle and lean on their defense, the game clock should be running fairly often.

Washington’s defense could play a role on the Under side too. They were awful last season, but coordinator Raheem Morris was fired and they’re now looking at as many as eight new starters under defensive coordinator Daronte Jones. There’s been an emphasis on disguise and versatility while trying to force takeaways, so there’s reason to believe the defense will be better than they were in 2025.

Both teams making offensive changes in a Week 1 divisional game is another reason to expect some conservatism in this one. We’ll see how things truly play out on Sunday, but Washington has every reason to not want to put Daniels in harm’s way by airing it out against Philadelphia’s defensive line. Running the ball, utilizing short throws and controlling the pace of the game makes sense.

475. Commanders/Eagles Under

The 49ers-Rams UNDER lines up perfectly with how I see Thursday night’s Week 1 game shaking out. Yes there is plenty of offensive firepower on both sides of the ball, but this is going to be one of the strangest season openers we have ever seen.

The game is being played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia. Kickoff won’t happen until 10:35 a.m. Friday local time. Each team is dealing with about 8,000 miles of travel and a crazy time-zone change, so there is every reason to think this could be sloppy/offensive slow to start. 

The Rams improved defense is another huge Under angle. The Rams brought in reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, coaxed Aaron Donald out of retirement and added cornerback Trent McDuffie. They should have a legit pass rush that forces Brock Purdy into easier throws while forcing San Francisco to sustain long drives instead of relying on big plays.

Kyle Shanahan’s offense has question marks too. Christian McCaffrey was limited during Monday’s practice and missed a lot of practice during the preseason, while George Kittle also missed time with an injury during the preseason. Even if both players suit up healthy, Shanahan’s best game plan might be to lean on McCaffrey, short passing concepts and the run to control possession against Matthew Stafford. The more the Rams defense is on the field, the less the Rams’ offense will threaten.

Los Angeles might be impacted by travel even more than San Francisco. The 49ers arrived in Australia nearly a week before kickoff to get used to the time change. The Rams didn’t plan to arrive until about 36 hours before kickoff. It makes sense from a body-clock standpoint, but it also increases the risk of travel fatigue and slows down their offense early.

San Francisco will probably try to shorten this game as much as possible while Los Angeles brings one of the most improved defenses into the 2026 season. I just don’t see them topping that number with how weird Week 1 is shaping up in Australia. Take the UNDER here on Thursday. 

Jim’s Play: 453. 49ers/Rams UNDER

There are several reasons I like the OVER in this spot, but the biggest one revolves around New England’s offense, which should be significantly improved from last season’s Super Bowl showing. The Patriots added A. J. Brown and Romeo Doubs around Drake Maye, which gives him a much better receiving corps and more weapons to make big plays.

Seattle’s defense is dealing with some injury concerns of their own. Starting safety Ty Okada is out for the game and Nick Emmanwori is questionable with an ankle injury. Their secondary was shaky last season anyway, so having starters like Okada out of the lineup could make Seattle more vulnerable through the air.

Speaking of through the air, Seattle still has plenty of weapons on offense with quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Darnold was able to toss for over 4,000 yards last season and Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 yards receiving. New England will likely be better on that side of the ball, but Seattle can still put up mid-20s type numbers at home.

We are only getting 44.5 points right now which leaves room for a 27-24 or even 24-23 type outcome. Both teams have upgraded weapons, Seattle has secondary concerns and both starting quarterbacks can make every throw. Take the over. 

Jim’s Play: 451. Patriots / Seahawks OVER

UNLV and Hawaii both strike me as teams that want to move the ball but lack the efficiency to hit lofty totals. I like UNDER plays here especially if you can still get solid odds on the 57.5 or 58.5. Some Under action has already occurred in the market as we've seen books come down from an opener around 58.5 into the 56.5-57.5 range.

UNLV got chunk plays against Memphis but stalled repeatedly when drives got close. The Rebels racked up 460 yards of offense but scored just 21 points, converting only 3-of-15 on third down and just two of four trips into the red zone. Quarterback Jackson Arnold was also sacked six times which killed drives multiple times. If Hawaii can rush the passer at all UNLV will likely put up plenty of yards again but struggle to punch it in for touchdowns.

The Hawaii offense had their own efficiency woes against Stanford last week. The Rainbow Warriors only put up 325 yards on the Cardinal and 4.3 yards per play. Hawaii ran for just 46 yards on 2.1 yards per carry and Micah Alejado went 53/5.3 passing. The defense gave up nearly two touchdowns in the fourth quarter so Hawaii scored 20 points after not having their first down until late in the second quarter. This makes the 27-point total posted by Sunday seem overly generous.

There is obviously the hurricane factor to consider as well. Category 5 Hurricane Lowell continues to trend south of Hawaii as we enter the week, but the National Hurricane Center is asking interests in the Hawaiian Islands to monitor its progress. Lowell is not expected to make landfall on Oahu, but it could increase wind speeds around the islands come the weekend. Honolulu is forecast to have breezy conditions on Saturday so wind could become a factor and make both deep passing and the kicking game unpredictable. An Under would benefit. 

Do not read this as me saying you need to bet this as a hurricane game. We’re not getting forecasts that indicate rain will delay or cancel this game. Right now, the forecast is calling for clouds and winds, which is why I’m including it here as another reason you might see UNDER lines. If Lowell remains south of Hawaii it's possible winds will pick up here before the game. However, I wouldn't handicap this line based on the weather at this time.

Both teams have reasons to protect the football a bit more after stumbling out of the gates. UNLV should run more to keep Arnold upright while Hawaii has to establish some semblance of balance after Alejado threw the ball 53 times in Week 0.

Jim's Play: 217. UNLV/Hawaii  UNDER

Friday's game has me taking Miami and Stanford OVER for several reasons. The biggest one is Miami's offensive ceiling. Miami adds Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah who threw 34 TD passes last season and will be surrounded by elite weapons like Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. This passing attack gets a plus matchup against a Stanford defense that ranked 107th in EPA per pass last season.

Stanford should provide their fair share to get OVER as well. The Cardinals hung 37 points on Hawaii in Week 0 while averaging 6.8 yards per play. QB Davis Warren was efficient, and running back Micah Ford helped Stanford's rushing attack with three touchdowns. Miami has a ton of talent on defense, but the Hurricanes also have to replace multiple important pieces and return just 74th amount defensive production from last year.

I like explosive-play potential on both sides of the ball as well. Stanford gave up 20 fourth-quarter points to Hawaii last week, while Miami has speedsters everywhere to create chunk plays through the air and with Fletcher on the ground. If Miami reaches the mid-30s, Stanford only needs 14-17 points to reach the finish line.

Jim's Play: 153. Miami/Stanford OVER

I like North Carolina and TCU to stay UNDER the total in Saturday’s season opener in Dublin.  The market total has bounced around the 47.5 to 49.5-point mark. While both offenses have question marks heading into the game, there is enough uncertainty on both sides to entice me toward the lower number. 

North Carolina put up just 19.3 points and 288.8 yards per game last season and new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino should eventually have a positive effect. However, the Tar Heels are starting a freshman quarterback in Billy Edwards Jr. behind a starting offensive line that was completely overhauled during the offseason. That unit will face a TCU defensive front that can provide pressure, leading to sacks and busted plays. When that happens, the Tar Heels will have to resort to conservative play-calling and stalled drives. 

TCU will have its own offensive struggles as it breaks in Jaden Craig at quarterback. Craig, a Harvard transfer, takes over for Josh Hoover under new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. While Craig has started games at the collegiate level, going from the Ivy League to a Power Four defense in his first game with TCU will be an adjustment. If North Carolina’s defensive front can pressure Craig like it’s expected to against the Tar Heels’ offense, we could see a low-scoring affair. 

Factor in that it’s a season opener in Dublin and both teams have starters at quarterback who have yet to play a meaningful snap together with either team, and conservative football is a likely outcome. Players will get caught out of position, there will be timing issues and offensive struggles in the first half. Also, this game will be played in Dublin so there is added intrigue with both teams going overseas and starting significant pieces on offense. 

Unlike last year’s 48-14 beatdown, I just don’t see this game featuring tons of explosive plays. Neither quarterback has started against FBS competition, and North Carolina should have its’act’ together defensively in year two under Bill Belichick. 

Jim's Play: 305. NCU / TCU UNDER

Miami and Indiana face off for the National Championship here on Monday. I like this game on Under because the most likely championship script is conservative early, defense-first throughout, and a lot of points needing to be “earned” with long drives instead of quick strikes. Kickoff is Monday, January 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN, and the main totals number showing across major previews is 47. That number is high enough that you don’t need a total rock fight to cash, you just need this to play like a title game where both staffs prioritize ball security, field position, and not giving the opponent short fields.

Matchup-wise, Indiana’s defense is the anchor that makes the Under make sense. They’ve been described as one of the best defenses in the country, allowing around 11 points per game and pairing that with an elite turnover margin, which is exactly the profile that forces opponents to string together long, mistake-free possessions. Miami’s best chance to score is still there, but they’re not at full strength in the pass-catching group, with at least one key starter ruled out on the injury report, which can push an offense toward more run game and shorter concepts, keeping the clock moving. On the Indiana side, they can be explosive, but a championship setting often pulls even great offenses into a more methodical approach, especially if they feel they can win with defense and field position.

Weather shouldn’t force an Under, but it does remove the “perfect scoring conditions” that can inflate totals. The forecast around kickoff in Miami Gardens is clear to mostly clear and around 60–62°F, which is comfortable, but it’s also not the hot, fast track environment you sometimes get in South Florida. Put it together and the Under path is straightforward: Indiana’s defense makes sustained drives hard, Miami’s offensive plan likely leans more balanced and careful, and if the first quarter starts tight (which is common in title games), you’re immediately in a tempo and possession-count game that favors a final that goes UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 287. Miami Fla/Indiana UNDER 

The Rams–Bears Divisional game projects to be an Under for a host of reasons, most of them associated with bad weather impacting offensive production. There’s a reason football games in cold, wet conditions often become games of field position and third-down defense (avoiding that big play); kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3: 30 p.m. PT (5:30 p.m. CT) at Soldier Field. Simply put: it’s going to be cold.

Chicago’s Sunday forecast projects very cold temperatures in the low 20s with periods of snow throughout the day. The Soldier Field hourly also shows game-time weather that feels even colder due to wind chill factor and the possibility of snow/flurries. When the temperature drops like that, the football becomes harder, player’s hands hurt, footing becomes questionable and offenses tend to play more conservatively with fewer clean downfield opportunities leading to stalled drives or punts/field-goal attempts.

That trend becomes even more important for Los Angeles as NFL teams that spend their entire season in domes typically run the ball more and take fewer chances downfield when playing in true Chicago winter weather. Chicago media is already highlighting the potential snow flurries and wind around the mid-teens (mph) leading up to the game, both of which decrease passing production and increase the value of simply not turning over the ball. With both teams likely looking to grind out field position in a divisional-round game, a predictable, clean Under script is offenses struggle with the elements and as a result, scoring is dictated by a few high-leverage red-zone opportunities instead of a constant flow of touchdowns.

Jim's Play: 393. Rams/Bears UNDER

This Texans–Patriots Divisional game has plenty of built-in Under value baked in simply due to the expected nature of this game. Football doesn’t come colder or more field-position oriented than Gillette Stadium typically does in the playoffs when both teams emphasize defense, the running game, and simply trying to avoid turnovers on early downs. Kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. PT). The total is hovering around the low 40s at most books which already factors in some rain impact to lower the ceiling.

Nonetheless, the game script has a lot of drivers for betting the Under here and weather plays a huge factor. When these winds kick up and temperatures are in the mid-30s with a potential snow squall in the middle-to-late part of the game, efficiency downfield drops and offenses become much more conservative on early downs with rushes, leading to longer drives overall. This changes third downs and red-zone attempts from touchdown-or-bust to a much tougher ask. When that happens, you typically get punts instead of fourth-down attempts, teams “taking the field goal” instead of going for it, and a general inability to make clean explosive plays which means fewer total possessions.

Even matchup-wise, there’s a clear reason to think Houston’s attack won’t be quite as explosive as normal. Heading into this one, early reports and the betting breakdowns have pointed to Houston being without Nico Collins. Collins is Houston’s top pass-catcher and a true field-stretching talent, so losing him is exactly the sort of injury that makes an offense shorten their passing game and attempt longer drives that are more likely to stall. On the Patriots side of things, they’ve been quietly putting their team together in a way that favors defense and situational football as of late: adding defensive depth (CB Alex Austin returning from IR while also elevating a few other players from the practice squad) while mostly remaining healthy at safety impacts the game where the weather is already in play to favor the defense. When you put all of it together you have a clean recipe for an Under: frigid temperatures, snow in the forecast, likely conservative playoff game script, Houston possibly without their top receiver and both defenses feeling confident about “winning the fourth quarter” rather than forcing a shootout.

Jim's Play: 387. Texans/Patriots UNDER 

The late NFC Divisional game on Saturday between the SF 49ers and Seattle Seahawks looks to me to be a low scoring contest. The weather looks to be an issue. on Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET) in Seattle where weather could help skew things down. Weather at kickoff will be in cold (but dry) conditions with temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F at night. That’s not the classic “wind and rain” game we see from kickoffs in Seattle, but cold weather can help defenses tackle better and make offenses heavier on runs while not wanting to force passes into tight coverage. Bottom line: familiarity between rivals, defensive playoff-style football, likely run/field-position battle script, and Seattle potentially having to adapt their offense if their quarterback is limited equals a nice path to the Under.

Coaches in the playoffs don’t like to play risky unless they have to, especially when playing a familiar divisional opponent. Blame it on typical playoff-football style or coaches being cautious with the season on the line, but playoff games tend to have more runs, more clock used, and more punts that pin opponents deep in their own territory.

Add in that this is the third game these teams have played this season, and they both struggled to score against one another with defensive, turnover-prone contests decided by eight points or less. Seattle also might not have 100% from their quarterback, as Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique) is up and down on the injury report. The Seahawks could be in a situation where they lean on their run game and short-to-intermediate passing concepts even more. Meanwhile, San Francisco is okay with playing to their running game and Christian McCaffrey’s versatility, and if both teams want to avoid turnovers, you often end up with longer drives that end with either a punt or field goal.

While the weather likely will not be a big factor, I like this game to stay under tht total points here on Saturday evening. 

Jim's Play: 389. 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 

Miami–Ole Miss tonight has a clear path to the over because the scoring profiles are strong on both sides and the environment should be ideal for offense. The total is sitting around 52 to 52.5, and with the game in a controlled stadium setting, you are not dealing with wind or weather that typically drags passing games and kicking down. Ole Miss is built to put points on the board, averaging about 37.6 points per game, and they have a quarterback who protects the ball, which supports sustained drives and fewer empty possessions. Miami can hold up its end too, scoring around 31.6 points per game, and they have enough playmakers to answer when Ole Miss hits. Another over-friendly factor is short fields: if turnovers or special teams create a couple of sudden change possessions, those often turn into touchdowns in clean conditions. Put it together and the most likely script is Ole Miss producing chunk drives, Miami responding often enough to keep pace, and both teams finishing drives at a higher rate than they would in bad weather, which is exactly what you want when the number is in the low 50s.

273. Miami / Ole MISS OVER 52.5 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

Ravens–Steelers is a gold-standard UNDER setup. It’s a Sunday night game at Acrisure Stadium (8: 20 PM ET) with the total around 40.5. The game-time weather in Pittsburgh is brutal-cold (mid-20s and cloudy around kickoff), and even with light wind expected, that kind of cold tends to punish downfield passing, tighten play-calling, and make kicking/ball-handling less automatic. On top of that, this rivalry almost always plays like a fistfight: both coaches are comfortable leaning run game + field position, punting to win the hidden-yards battle, and forcing the other side to drive the long way in low-margin spots, exactly how you end up with more field goals than touchdowns. Personnel-wise, Baltimore is getting Lamar Jackson back (which helps their ceiling), but the Steelers also get T.J. Watt back after the collapsed-lung issue, and his presence alone can turn a couple of Ravens possessions into sacks, long-yardage, and punts. Add in that Baltimore has had illness/injury questions around key pass-catch/coverage pieces (like Rashod Bateman and Marlon Humphrey listed questionable), which can also push this toward conservative, lower-risk offense on one side and “bend-don’t-break” drives on the other. Put it together and the clean UNDER script is straightforward: cold night, two physical defenses, run-heavy pacing, and just a couple of stalled red-zone trips or missed kicks are enough to keep this game under the total. 

Jim's Play: 349. Ravens/Steelers UNDER 

Chargers at Broncos on Sunday, January 4 and I'll be looking at the UNDER in this matchup because the total is more likely being capped by personnel and game flow than the weather. The primary reason the game projects to be a low-scoring affair is that multiple articles mention the Chargers are expected to rest starters such as Justin Herbert. That’s a huge hit for overall offensive production and especially red-zone efficiency. The factor is magnified by the Broncos being mentioned in their Week 18 previews as a top-level defense, the type that can force a reserve QB-led offense into a steady diet of punts and field goals. Game script-wise, Denver is favored and playing for the AFC’s top seed, and usually in that situation teams will proceed with a more controlled game plan that emphasizes the run game, high-percentage throws, and ball security over attacking with tempo, particularly once a lead is in place. If the Broncos are able to establish an early lead, both teams also have reasons to run clock and be conservative late in preserving health and reducing possessions, keeping the UNDER alive. The weather in Denver in the afternoon window is forecast to be clear with mild temps, so wind and snow are not factors in this forecast; the UNDER is mostly tied to the Chargers’ downgraded offense and a Broncos’ approach that can win comfortably without having to go fast.

Jim's play: 363. Chargers/Broncos UNDER 

NFC West implications on the line here on Saturday as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers.  I am looking at the OVER in this matchup for a few reasons, motivation and form align in the direction of points. The total is sitting in the high-40s (roughly 47.5–49.5 range), and while Santa Clara could receive rain earlier in the day, the forecast is showing only scattered showers during the game itself and nothing wet enough to significantly affect the field, with winds that are breezy but not absolutely brutal. In addition, there’s the simple fact that the NFC West and top-seed implications are on the line, and these are often the games with more teams going plus in conviction and fewer “play for field position” punts. From a production perspective, San Francisco’s offense has been on fire, Brock Purdy is on a heater (15 total TDs and a 120.5 passer rating over his last four games) and the 49ers have scored 35+ in each of their last three, while Seattle can also contribute, especially through the air with Sam Darnold and a big-play profile built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the matchup favors doing so because the 49ers’ pass rush has reportedly fallen off hard without Nick Bosa, making it easier for Seattle to sustain drives and hit explosives. If the game stays close, turnovers can even lead to an OVER via short fields and both teams entering on six-game win streaks also bodes well for four full quarters of urgency and late points.

Jim's Play: OVER the Total.

The USC–TCU Alamo Bowl has all the ingredients to push past the 55.5 total because both defenses come into the game depleted and vulnerable, especially in the secondary, where opt-outs and transfers have created major holes. That opens the door for explosive plays on both sides, and USC’s offense still operates with tempo and spacing that naturally increases possession count and scoring opportunities. TCU’s offense also found late-season rhythm, particularly in its run game and RPO packages, giving the Horned Frogs a reliable scoring floor against a USC defense that has struggled to stop anything consistently. Both teams have had issues in the red zone, often allowing touchdowns instead of field goals, which is a major Over driver in bowl games. Add in the bowl-game tendency for offensive surges when defenses are thin, plus the big-play potential from USC’s speed and TCU’s balanced attack, and this matchup has multiple pathways to clear 55.5 total with room to spare.

Jim's Play: 247. USC/TCU OVER 

Bears at 49ers on Sunday, December 28, 2025 (5:20 PM PT) sets up well for an OVER because the conditions and the matchup both lean offense. Game-time weather in Santa Clara looks pretty clean, with morning fog lifting and a partly sunny day around 57°F with a 36°F low, so you are not dealing with rain or heavy wind that typically drags scoring down. The total is sitting at 52.5, and that number makes sense when you look at how San Francisco has been playing: the 49ers have been averaging 34.4 points over a five-game win streak and have been so efficient that they have not punted on their last 21 possessions, which is exactly the kind of drive-finishing profile that pushes games over the number.  Chicago can help on the other side too, with Caleb Williams and the Bears offense playing better late in the year, and their defense leading the league in takeaways, which can actually help an OVER by creating short fields or sudden-change scoring chances.  Add in San Francisco’s improved special teams and Eddy Piñeiro’s 26-straight made field goals, and you have fewer empty trips and more points in a game that already projects as a high-scoring, prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play: 429. Bears/49ers OVER 

Steelers at Browns kicks off Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT), and the game-time setup points toward a grind. The Cleveland forecast calls for rain around the day with temps in the 40s to 50s near early afternoon, and the National Weather Service has southerly winds in the neighborhood of 7–13 mph with gusts from24 mph to 44 mpg, which can disrupt downfield timing and make kicking less reliable. In that kind of rain-plus-wind environment, offenses usually shrink the playbook, leaning more run game and quick throws, which keeps the clock moving and reduces explosive plays. The market is also telling you points should be hard to come by, with the total sitting in the mid-30s (roughly 33.5–34.5 range). On the matchup side, Cleveland’s defense has been one of the league’s strongest by yards and efficiency measures, making long, clean scoring drives tougher to string together, especially on a wet field. Add in Cleveland being without TE David Njoku and Pittsburgh missing starting LG Isaac Seumalo, and it’s easy to see both offenses leaning even more conservative, with more punts, fewer clean red-zone chances, and the kind of field-position, AFC North slugfest profile that supports an UNDER.

Jim's Play:  417. Steelers/Browns UNDER   

Cardinals–Bengals sets up well for an OVER because everything about the environment and game script points to points. The market is already expecting scoring with the total around 53.5 and Cincinnati favored by about a touchdown, which creates a natural “Bengals in front / Cardinals chasing” tempo where Arizona has to stay aggressive deep into the second half.  The game-time weather in Cincinnati also looks unusually friendly for late December: it’s forecast to be cloudy and very warm (high near 69°F) with a breezier afternoon and thunderstorms late, so early and mid-game conditions should be more conducive to passing and kicking than a typical cold, windy AFC North spot. On the matchup side, both defenses are dealing with meaningful losses: Arizona is expected to be without Budda Baker, and Cincinnati will be without edge rusher Joseph Ossai, which can show up as more explosive plays and fewer drive-killing pressures. This also isn’t a spot where you’re fighting season-long tendencies, since both teams have been OVER-friendly (9-6 to the over). I expect lots of scoring in this matchup on Sunday in Cincy. 

Jim's Play: 407. Cardinals/Bengals OVER 

Monday night’s matchup between the 49ers and Colts sets up as a strong Under play thanks to two disciplined defenses, two run-heavy offensive identities, and a total in the mid-40s that already signals a lower-scoring expectation. San Francisco enters allowing just over 20 points per game and has tightened up during its four-game winning streak, while Indianapolis has been similarly solid defensively, giving up just 21.6 points per game. Both offenses lean heavily on their star running backs - Christian McCaffrey for the 49ers and Jonathan Taylor for the Colts - which naturally shortens the game, limits possessions, and keeps the clock moving. The Colts’ offense has cooled off significantly, scoring only 16 points last week and struggling to finish drives during their four-game skid, while San Francisco’s defense matches up well against a turnover-prone Indy attack. Even though the game is indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, both teams’ methodical styles and defensive strengths point toward a slower, grind-it-out contest that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 131. 49ers/Colts UNDER 

Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Lions shapes up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses trending upward and an ideal scoring environment inside Ford Field. Detroit is coming off a 41–34 shootout against the Rams, a 75-point explosion that showcased Jared Goff’s rhythm after throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh also showed offensive efficiency in its 28-15 win over Miami, and with Aaron Rodgers active, the Steelers maintain a high passing ceiling even if their season-long scoring has fluctuated. Playing indoors removes weather from the equation entirely, and Detroit has been one of the league’s most reliable home offenses, consistently producing big numbers in controlled conditions. The market reflects this expectation, opening the total at 52–52.5 - one of the highest on the Week 16 board - signaling that oddsmakers anticipate a fast-paced, high-scoring game. With both teams coming off strong offensive performances and their last two head-to-head meetings combining for 67 points, all signs point toward another game that pushes past the posted total.

Jim's Play: 125. Steelers/Lions OVER 

Sunday’s matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos sets up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses playing their best football of the season and a game environment that naturally promotes scoring. Denver is coming off a 34-point performance behind Bo Nix’s 302 yards and four touchdowns, while Jacksonville exploded for 48 points last week with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 330 yards and five scores. Both teams enter on long winning streaks - the Broncos with 11 straight and the Jaguars with five - and both offenses rank inside the league’s top tiers, with Denver 11th in total offense and Jacksonville 8th in scoring at nearly 27 points per game. Recent results support the Over as well, with both teams’ most recent games soaring past the number and Denver games hitting the Over six times this season. Playing in Denver only enhances scoring potential, as Mile High’s altitude wears down defenses and favors fast-paced offenses like Jacksonville’s, which has topped 25 points in seven straight games.  All signs point to a high-scoring matchup that pushes this game over the posted total.

Jim's Play: 123. Jags/Broncos OVER 

The Falcons-Cardinals contest on Sunday has been marked as one of the better Over plays on the board as we enter Week 16. The two offenses are coming off high-scoring affairs against very good defenses. Also, State Farm Stadium in the desert usually provides a quick game with good passing numbers, as there are no factors that can affect the game, such as rain or cold weather. Let’s first look at Atlanta, which is coming off a 29-28 victory in a 57-point game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kirk Cousins threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, and the Falcons’ passing game appears to be hitting its stride at a time when their passing attack is needed the most. In Arizona, the Cardinals were involved in a 40-20 game last week against the Houston Texans. Their defense is in bad shape and could be in trouble against Cousins and the Falcons, especially since the Cardinals’ offense has been sneaking up on people. The Cardinals have quietly averaged better than 260 passing yards per game in their last three games. It’s also tough to bet against State Farm Stadium as a host because every game there is guaranteed to have zero variables such as wind, snow or rain. It’s also worth noting that these teams’ defenses have some problems. Arizona has allowed 40+ points in consecutive games for the first time since 2016 and has lost six consecutive games. As for Atlanta, their injury report this week is long and includes defensive players. As for the total itself, it opened at 48.5 points at most books on Monday. It is one of the higher numbers on the Week 16 board, and for good reason: The game flow could dictate a very fast-paced, high-offense finish.

Jim's Play: 121. Falcons/Cardinals OVER

The Bills-Browns Under gets a boost from a tough Cleveland forecast, combined with matchup and game-flow concerns. Sunday's game is expected to take place in 28–30-degree temperatures with a 19-degree wind chill, with 15-mph winds and gusts up to 27 mph, which will generally lead to lower-scoring affairs that feature less deep passing and long field goals. This suggests a more conservative game script, to begin with. The Browns are one of the worst offenses in the NFL in all of the important metrics, as they rank in the bottom third in scoring, total offense, passing and rushing this season. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders has not been able to produce with much regularity. This will play very well into the hands of a Buffalo defense that has one of the best pass covers in the league. The Bills' high-octane offense is naturally affected by cold, swirling winds that can lead to less downfield efficiency and shorter drives. Factor in the Browns' tendency to run the ball and shorten the game - which will be encouraged by the Bills' leaky run defense - and the ingredients are all there for a long-possession, stalled-drive game with limited total plays. The market has the line in the low 40s, so oddsmakers are pricing in the weather and game flow as well. Sunday's game will be a slugfest that lands Under.

Jim's Play : 107. Bills/Browns UNDER 

I'm looking at the UNDER tonight in the LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks contest.  The weather looks to be a main driver here, because the conditions and the matchup both suggest fewer clean, explosive scoring drives. Seattle is contending with rain around game time and several betting-weather reports are also forecasting strong winds (roughly mid-to-high teens) with gusts that can reach the 30s mph - the kind of environment that negatively impacts timing throws, deep shots, and even longer field-goal attempts.  On top of that, each offense has notable personnel concerns: the Rams’ Davante Adams is listed doubtful 

while Seattle has LT Charles Cross ruled out, both of which can result in more pressure/sacks and push the Seahawks toward quicker, shorter, lower-upside possessions.  And, of course, we’ve already seen a “blueprint” for a lower total in this rivalry - the previous meeting ended 21–19 (40 points), with the Rams’ defense generating takeaways and the game staying close throughout.  This one looks to be a grind-it-out contest tonight  and I'll be on the UNDER.

Jim's Play: 101. Rams/Seahawks UNDER 

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints NFC South showdown on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is an over bet for multiple reasons, which when added together outweigh the season-long totals that are low for both of these teams. Defensively, both teams have had serious issues against the big play and the matchups on both sides of the ball create offenses with the potential to both string together long, sustained drives as well as get explosive. While the Panthers offense has been very streaky this season, when they have gone up against the type of defense that New Orleans has shown to be susceptible to – specifically with speed and misdirection, they’ve had success. The Panthers’ young quarterback has looked increasingly comfortable going downfield, and with a Saints secondary that has been very susceptible to both breakdowns and big-play liabilities, Carolina has a potential offensive ceiling if the game script requires them to play catchup. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked at their best when playing at home, where their offense has found its rhythm quickly more often than not. The Saints passing game has been much more aggressive this season and against a Panthers defense that has had trouble generating consistent pressure as well as being susceptible to the big play, New Orleans should be able to both create explosive pass plays as well as through the ground. The Saints’ red-zone efficiency, which is much better at home, also sets them up for a better chance to turn drives into touchdowns, rather than field goals.

Divisional games tend to be low-scoring by nature, but divisional familiarity also has a tendency to open up more scoring opportunities, simply because each team knows the other’s tendencies and the ways to attack the other’s defense, and the defenses here have shown enough inconsistency for both teams that scoring opportunities are likely throughout the game. Carolina has the potential to provide more offense than has been expected so far this season, and the Saints have the elements for a strong offensive showing at home. Considering all of the elements, the ingredients for a higher-scoring game are present.

Jim's Play: 475. Panthers/Saints OVER

The Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is one to target as a strong play over the total. San Francisco’s offense is one of the most efficient and explosive in the NFL, with the ability to produce chunk plays through both the air and on the ground, forcing their opponents to respond early and often. Christian McCaffrey while physically healthy has been dealing with an illness this last week but should be ready for Sunday. The 49ers passing game has been hitting on all cylinders lately with play-action and motion concepts opening up big play opportunities. Tennessee’s defense has been weak against dynamic offenses and they figure to be tested early and often against San Francisco.

The Titans themselves have been a more aggressive offensive team in recent weeks. Their passing game has come alive with improved play at quarterback and a stronger group of receivers, and they have shown a greater propensity to push the ball downfield on the deep ball when game script allows it. Against a 49ers defense that has been strong but has not been completely impenetrable when it comes to well-timed vertical shots or misdirection concepts, Tennessee has a chance to produce scoring drives of their own. Tennessee’s run game also remains strong enough to help control the tempo of the game and create red?zone opportunities, which is critical for keeping the scoreboard ticking.

What makes this matchup so attractive for the over is how it’s likely to play out. San Francisco’s offense should force their opponents into catch-up mode, with a faster pace and a greater pass volume as a result. Tennessee is built to play in that type of environment, and the improvements they’ve made to their own offense make them far more capable of trading scores in that type of game script than in years past. Add in the 49ers’ proven ability to score quickly and Tennessee’s improved ability to sustain drives, and the recipe is in place for a game that will see multiple momentum swings and consistent scoring throughout.

Jim's Play: 479. Titans/49ers OVER 

The matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears on Sunday in mid-December sets up as a classic AFC/NFC grinder that points strongly to the under. First, the setting matters: December in Cleveland typically means cold temperatures, swirling winds off Lake Erie, and a heavy field that slows down speed on the perimeter.  And right now it's expected to be around 13 degrees with wind chills reaching -20 degrees. This will lean heavily at making this game a more defensive battle. 

From a matchup standpoint, the Browns’ defensive profile leans toward a low total as well. In recent seasons, Cleveland has built one of the better defenses in the league. The Browns have the 2nd ranked over defense and the league's top rushing defense.  Chicago’s offense, even with a dynamic quarterback and improved skill talent, has still tended to be streaky and at its best when the run game is working and the play-action is respected. Against a front as physical as Cleveland’s, sustained 70–80 yard drives are difficult to string together, and red-zone trips often stall into field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns.

On the other side, the Browns’ offense also quietly supports an under. They’ve often leaned on their ground game and short passing attack, playing methodical, possession-based football rather than turning games into shootouts. That style shortens the game, keeps their defense fresh, and limits the total number of drives for both teams. Chicago’s defense, while not elite, has improved in the front seven and is better equipped to play the run and force Cleveland into long fields. Add it all up: winter conditions that suppress scoring, two teams comfortable running the ball and grinding clock, a high-end Browns defense, and a Bears offense that’s more workmanlike than explosive. The most likely script is a physical, field-position battle where punts, field goals, and stalled drives outnumber quick-strike touchdowns, making the under my NFL Total of the Year. 

Jim's Play: Take: 461. Browns/Bears UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

Another of those key matchups on Sunday that will go a ways to clarifying the AFC playoff picture as the Houston Texans travel to Kansas City for the Sunday Night contest.  Houston (7-5) brings league's top ranked defense to town - surrendering roughly 16.5 points per game this season - and they’ve leaned on that unit to win close, low-scoring affairs; when the Texans control field position and force opponents into longer third-down chains, the number of scoring opportunities for both teams drops significantly. 

Kansas City (6-6) still has explosive playmakers, but recent inconsistency and defensive lapses have made the Chiefs more prone to conservative game scripts when facing a top-tier defense at home.  Houston’s defensive identity is built to limit explosive pass plays and win the turnover/field-position battle, which forces the Chiefs to sustain longer drives rather than rely on quick scoring. Kansas City’s offense has the talent to flip a game with a few big plays, but the Chiefs have been less efficient recently and are vulnerable when their offensive line can’t consistently protect or when their short-week prep is disrupted - both scenarios that increase punts and clock-burning drives rather than rapid scoring bursts. 

Conversely, the Texans’ offense is comfortable chewing clock with a balanced run/pass mix; that style shortens the game and reduces total possessions, a classic under driver.  Primetime games also tend to see more conservative play-calling early as coaches avoid turnovers under the lights; if the first quarter is slow, the game script will likely remain grind-oriented and keep the total in check. The combination of Houston’s elite run-stopping defense, Kansas City’s recent offensive inconsistency, and a low-possession game script makes the UNDER the logical play for Sunday Night.

Jim's Play: 143. Texans/Chiefs UNDER 

The NFC West has the team in the penthouse (LA Rams 9-3) taking on the team in the outhouse (Arizona 3-9). Los Angeles enters this tilt as a clear favorite and the market has set the total at roughly 48, a number that already anticipates scoring but still leaves room for an over if both teams trade big plays and quick drives. The Rams remain one of the league’s more explosive offenses when healthy, and even after a puzzling loss they still possess the personnel to generate chunk plays downfield - a primary driver of overs in divisional matchups.  The Rams are 8th in the NFL in total offense (19th in rushing and 4th in passing). 

Arizona’s season record masks a recent uptick in offensive production and the Cardinals have shown they can move the ball through the air when Jacoby Brissett is on rhythm. Now that it looks like Brissett will be behind center the rest of the season, that bodes well for the offense that has big number through the air with Brissett.  Divisional familiarity also matters: these teams know each other’s tendencies, which often leads to quicker scoring sequences rather than long, methodical possessions in this matchup context.

The Rams suffered a surprising loss to Carolina but that result looks more like an outlier than a trend, after QB  Matthew Stafford had three turnovers - something he has limited all season.  When the Rams’ passing game clicks, games move fast; Arizona’s defense has been vulnerable to chunk plays this season, which increases the probability of a high-scoring script if Los Angeles finds early rhythm.

Both teams have playmakers who create explosive opportunities, and State Farm Stadium’s conditions favor passing. If the Rams avoid a slow start and Arizona converts a few early possessions into touchdowns rather than field goals, the game script becomes a back-and-forth shootout - the classic over scenario. Target the OVER at or near 48. 

Jim's Play: 139. Rams/Cards OVER 

Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens AFC North matchup will leave one team with a big advantage to the division crown. Both teams enter today's contest tied at 6-6 and tied for first place in the North. Likely only one team in this division will make the postseason, which makes this game even higher impact. 

Pittsburgh’s offense has been uneven and ranks 27th overall in the NFL (28th rushing / 24th passing) while Baltimore’s attack is better at 20th, but lacks in passing with a 28th ranking. Both profiles are more likely to produce long, clock-consuming drives than rapid scoring bursts, which reduces the number of possessions and the raw scoring ceiling. Turnovers, field position, and defensive identity are the decisive variables that push this game under. Pittsburgh’s recent outings have featured offensive miscues and low output - a 26-7 loss to Buffalo highlighted how the Steelers can be bottled up when their passing game stalls - and those kinds of low-scoring performances compress totals quickly. Baltimore, meanwhile, has shown it can play physical, time-of-possession football behind a strong run game and a defense that limits chunk plays; when the Ravens control the line of scrimmage they force opponents into longer third-down chains and fewer scoring opportunities, which is a classic under driver.

Matchup specifics also favor the UNDER.  The last nine meetings between these teams have seen the game go UNDER in eight of those games.  The Steelers’ offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play increase the chance of stalled drives and punts, while the Ravens’ defensive scheme is designed to limit explosive pass plays and force teams to earn points methodically. 

Neither team has shown any explosive play in recent weeks and I dont' see that changing here on Sunday.  Expect a grind out contest likely won with the better rushing game and keep the score under the Total. 

Jim's Play: 127. Steelers / Ravens UNDER

The Big Ten Championship between Indiana (12-0) and Ohio State (12-0) projects as a low-variance, possession-heavy affair that favors the UNDER the posted total near 47.5. Both teams enter unbeaten and have shown a tendency to control tempo rather than run up the score: Ohio State’s recent 27-9 win over Michigan was a methodical performance that emphasized time of possession and limiting opponent explosiveness, while Indiana’s 56-3 rout of Purdue was an outlier driven by turnovers and short fields rather than sustained rapid scoring. When you strip away those anomalous possessions, the season-long profiles for both teams point to efficient offenses that prefer long drives and complementary defense - a classic recipe for fewer total points.

Matchup details reinforce the under lean. Ohio State’s front seven is built to clog the run and force opponents into longer third-down situations, which shortens the game by increasing play clock usage and reducing the number of possessions. Indiana’s offense, while productive, often relies on sustained drives and high-percentage throws rather than quick-strike scoring; when the Hoosiers do score in bunches it has frequently come off turnovers or special-teams swings rather than standard offensive rhythm. Those situational scoring sources are less likely to repeat in a neutral-site title game where both teams emphasize ball security and coaching discipline.

If either defense forces short fields, the scoreboard can spike - but both teams have shown the ability to limit explosive plays and protect the football in big moments, which suppresses scoring variance. Special teams and penalties could create scoring opportunities, yet the coaching staffs here prioritize situational football; expect conservative fourth-down decisions and an emphasis on clock management late in halves. Those tendencies reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring shootout and increase the probability that the game stays under the number.

JIm's Play: 119. Indiana/Ohio State UNDER (Big 10 Championship)

The Monday night matchup between the Giants and Patriots sets up surprisingly well for an OVER, thanks to improving offensive efficiency on both sides and two defenses that have struggled to prevent big plays throughout the season. The Giants enter averaging roughly 21-23 points per game, boosted by a more aggressive passing approach and improved red-zone efficiency, now converting at about 55%.  QB Jaxton Dart is expected to return tonight after missing the last few weeks with a concussion.  Their offense has been particularly effective on early downs, averaging just over 5.3 yards per play, a noticeable jump from previous seasons. New York’s ability to push the ball vertically against a Patriots secondary allowing around 240 passing yards per game creates multiple pathways for chunk plays and quick scoring drives. Add in the Giants’ running game hovering near 110 yards per contest, and you get a balanced attack capable of consistently putting points on the board.

New England hasn’t been elite offensively, but they’ve taken a noticeable step forward, averaging approximately 20–22 points per game behind an offense that leans on a steady run game and play-action shots downfield. Their ground attack, sitting around 118 rushing yards per game, sets up manageable down-and-distance situations and helps sustain drives. More importantly for the OVER, the Patriots’ defense has slipped considerably, surrendering roughly 24–26 points per game and giving up over 360 total yards each week. Their inability to create steady pressure on opposing quarterbacks - generating only around 2 sacks per game - leaves them exposed against teams with competent passing structures, which the Giants have developed as the season has progressed.

Both teams also rank in the lower half of the league in explosive-play prevention, with New York allowing about 5.6 yards per play and New England sitting near 5.8, pointing to a matchup ripe for big gains on both sides. Combine that with two offenses trending upward, two defenses that bend (and often break), and a primetime environment that traditionally boosts scoring, and the ingredients are firmly in place for an OVER result.

Jim's Play: Take: 483. Giants/Patriots OVER 

Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh has the feel of a rugged AFC playoff-style game, which points to the Bills and Steelers landing under the total. Buffalo comes in 7-4 and second in the AFC East, averaging a strong 28.3 points per game but also allowing only 22.9, a profile built more on efficiency than pure tempo. Lately the Bills have leaned into a deliberate, run-heavy approach: they’re 7-4 while ranking near the top of the league in time of possession (over 32 minutes per game), running the ball on roughly 47% of their snaps and leading the NFL at about 5 yards per carry, a style that bleeds clock and shortens games even when they move the chains. Josh Allen still gives them explosive potential, but in cold late-November conditions with a chance of rain or snow in Pittsburgh and temps hovering in the 30s and low 40s, the incentive is to protect the ball, lean on James Cook and the ground game, and play field position. 

Pittsburgh, at 6-5 and atop the AFC North, is scoring a respectable 24.9 points per game but allowing 23.9, with an offense that has been more methodical than explosive behind Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ attack is also dealing with a key blow up front, as starting left tackle Broderick Jones has been placed on injured reserve, forcing veteran Andrus Peat into the lineup and likely encouraging more conservative protection schemes, quicker throws, and a heavier dose of Najee Warren on the ground rather than deep shots. Both defenses are good enough to get off the field on third down, and with Buffalo trying to dominate time of possession and Pittsburgh protecting a reshuffled line in wintry conditions, long, clock-draining drives, red-zone field goals, and a field-position battle all set up this Bills–Steelers clash to stay under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 477. Bills/Steelers UNDER 

Jacksonville enters Sunday as the clear favorite, but the betting market has set a moderate total in the low-40s, a number that already reflects some scoring expectation while still leaving room for upside if either offense finds rhythm. The Jaguars have been capable of putting up points in bunches lately, averaging over 30 points across a recent stretch and showing improved red-zone efficiency, which makes them dangerous in any game script where possessions open up and the score becomes a shootout. Trevor Lawrence’s ability to create explosive plays downfield and the Jaguars’ willingness to push tempo on early downs increase the probability of quick scoring drives that inflate the clock and the scoreboard, especially against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to consistently stop chunk plays.

Tennessee’s recent results mask a team that can still produce points in spurts; the Titans have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs this season and have shown the capacity to move the ball through the air when their quarterback gets time and targets find separation. Tennessee’s home games have featured multiple overs this year, and their recent outings include games that reached the over more often than not, signaling a pattern that favors totals bettors when the matchup presents mismatches in the secondary. Add in the Titans’ offensive personnel questions and a defense that has given up explosive gains, and you have the kind of game where a few big plays swing the total quickly.

Jacksonville’s offensive line has been more effective in pass protection of late, giving Lawrence time to target playmakers, while Tennessee’s pass rush has been inconsistent, allowing opposing quarterbacks to extend drives and convert third downs. Turnover trends and special teams also point toward extra possessions and short fields - both of which are catalysts for scoring spikes late in halves and in the fourth quarter. When one team scores quickly, the other is forced to respond, and that game script is a classic driver of totals finishing above the posted number.

Tennessee’s propensity for higher-scoring home games, and the matchup mismatches in the secondary and pass rush will push this game over the total.     

Jim's Play: 465. Jaguars / Titans OVER 

The Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis has big AFC South implications, with the Colts sitting at 8-3 and the Texans at 6-5, and it also sets up as a solid candidate to stay under the total. The Colts bring in the league’s highest scoring offense at about 31 points per game, but they have cooled a bit in recent weeks and could be shorthanded if breakout rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who leads the team in receiving, cannot go or is limited by illness. Houston’s profile points strongly to an under: DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks near the top of the NFL in points allowed, giving up only about 16.5 per game, and has been especially stingy in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals more often than touchdowns. C.J. Stroud’s return from a concussion is a huge boost for the Texans’ offense, but it also suggests a conservative early script built around protecting the quarterback and leaning on a balanced attack and field position rather than turning this into a pure shootout. On the other side, Daniel Jones and the Colts offense are at their best when Jonathan Taylor and the ground game are setting up play action, which means plenty of clock-chewing drives instead of constant tempo. Add in a Colts defensive front bolstered by veteran Chris Wormley and a Houston defense that tackles well and limits explosives, and you have the recipe for a physical, playoff-style divisional game where both teams move the ball but long drives, red-zone resistance and a few timely third-down stops keep the combined score under the posted total. 

Jim's Play: 461. Texans / Colts UNDER 

The Sunday matchup on November 30 between the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns sets up as a classic defensive, field-position battle, which points strongly toward the game staying under the total. San Francisco’s identity under Kyle Shanahan has been built around a physical run game, efficient but controlled passing, and a defense that consistently ranks among the league’s toughest against both the run and the pass. That type of approach chews clock, leans on long, methodical drives, and limits the number of total possessions. Cleveland, meanwhile, brings its own rugged profile, with a front seven that can generate pressure with four, plug running lanes, and force offenses into short throws and checkdowns rather than explosive plays.

On offense, both teams prefer to set up the pass with the run rather than engage in a shootout. The 49ers typically rely on a zone-run scheme and quick-timing throws that prioritize ball security, while the Browns’ attack has often leaned on their ground game and play-action, especially when they want to protect the quarterback and avoid turnovers. In a game where both defenses can get after the passer, coaches are likely to play things conservatively on early downs, which creates a lot of 3rd-and-medium situations and potential stalled drives.  The Browns have the 2nd ranked defense, 11th vs the pass and 2nd vs the rush. They should give Chrisitan McCaffrey all he can handle rushing the ball here on Sunday. 

Add in the possibility of colder late-November conditions as the winds are expected to gust up to 35 MPH with some snow and rain possible.  All signs point to a tight, physical game where points are at a premium, making the under the preferred side on the total.

Jim's Play: 473. 49ers / Browns UNDER

Texas A&M and Texas renew the Lone Star Showdown on Friday, November 28, 2025 at Darrell K. Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin in a primetime matchup that has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game that clears the total. The Aggies come in unbeaten at 11-0 and ranked No. 3, riding an offense that averages around thirty points per game behind quarterback Marcel Reed, who has thrown for more than 2,700 yards this season with KC Concepcion as his top big-play target. Texas, ranked No. 16 at 8-3, counters with Arch Manning leading a passing attack that has caught fire down the stretch and helped the Longhorns win four of their last five, and this staff has a track record of putting up points, with Texas topping 30 points per game in 2024 and finishing 13-3 in that campaign. A&M’s defense is physical up front but has given up its share of chunk plays, while Texas has been more opportunistic than dominant, which points to both quarterbacks finding favorable matchups and sustained red-zone trips rather than stalled drives. With elite skill talent on both sidelines, aggressive playcalling expected, and a rivalry atmosphere in front of a sold-out crowd and national TV audience, the most likely script is a back-and-forth showdown where both teams push into the high 20s or low 30s, sending this one over the total.

Jim's Play: 335. Texas A&M / Texas OVER 

The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles meet Friday, November 28, 2025, in a game with defensive elements that can have an impact on the total. Chicago has embraced a bend-don’t-break, run-heavy identity under its current regime that is designed to shorten games, relying on the ground game and short-to-intermediate passing to move the sticks and keep the passing game in safe, high-percentage situations. That formula naturally results in fewer total plays, with a focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and dictating the pace while a shorter, sharper passing attack limits the effectiveness of the pass rush. Chicago’s pass rush has trended upward in recent seasons, giving the Bears options to create pressure without blitzing and with numbers in coverage.

Philadelphia’s offense is also more efficient than explosive at times, and the Eagles have been increasingly willing to play bully ball with long, sustained drives built around their powerful offensive line and a run-pass balance rather than trying to beat teams in a track meet. Against a Chicago defense that plays at a slower pace and will aim to keep everything in front of them, Philadelphia should lean on the ground game and possession passing to execute sustained drives, with an emphasis on field position and ball control. Given the late November date, with both teams content to run the ball and play a grind-it-out style that favors defense and the run game while the passing games take a back seat, there’s a recipe for a game script with a limited number of explosive plays and more of a focus on third-down efficiency and punting on early downs. 

Third downs and field goals instead of touchdowns become the name of the game, with both teams aiming to control the ball and stay close while their defenses keep the other team at bay. It’s a formula for a lower-scoring affair with both teams playing keep-away and the total number of possessions limited as both teams are content to grind away at the other on the ground. That’s the under recipe and gives this game a good chance to finish close and in the lower end of a wide range rather than a shootout.

Jim's Play: 313. Bears/Eagles Under 

The Egg Bowl between Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Mississippi State on Friday, November 28, 2025, sets up as the kind of rivalry game where intensity and defense can keep the scoring in check and push this one under the total. Even in years when Ole Miss brings in a higher-powered offense, this matchup often tightens up: emotions run high, every yard is contested, and coaching staffs are quicker to lean on field position, punting, and conservative calls on early downs rather than risking game-breaking mistakes. Ole Miss figures to lean on its ground game and short passing to stay on schedule, which keeps the clock moving and limits the number of possessions, especially if they’re playing from in front and happy to bleed time in the second half.

Mississippi State, for its part, typically has success when its defense can disrupt rhythm, win on early downs, and force long-yardage situations, and the Egg Bowl atmosphere usually brings out that extra edge from the Bulldogs’ front seven. Offensively, State has shifted in recent seasons toward a more balanced, less tempo-heavy approach than the peak Air Raid days, which also lends itself to longer drives and fewer snap totals overall. Red-zone execution will be a key theme: both defenses are capable of tightening inside the 20 and forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, which is crucial for an under ticket. Add in the late November setting, where weather, nerves, and the physical toll of a long SEC season can all slow offenses just a bit, and this shapes up more like a tough, chippy rivalry battle than a wide-open shootout. With both teams expected to lean on the run, play the field-position game, and protect the ball, the most likely script favors a lower-scoring Egg Bowl that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 317.  Miss/Miss St UNDER 

This primetime AFC North clash has all the ingredients for a shootout: Baltimore arrives on a roll and is favored by about -7, but Cincinnati’s offense - especially if Joe Burrow is active or even limited - can push the pace and keep drives alive, while the Ravens’ offense has enough playmakers to answer back. Baltimore’s recent form has been strong, and the Ravens have leaned on a balanced attack that now includes a powerful running game and explosive receiving options; that balance forces opponents to defend the entire field and opens up big-play opportunities in both the pass and run game. Cincinnati, despite a 3-8 record, has shown it can score in bunches when its passing game clicks, and the Bengals’ recent matchups with Baltimore have produced plenty of combined points - a trend that supports the OVER.

Matchup dynamics favor scoring: the Ravens have been productive on offense and the Bengals have struggled to consistently stop explosive plays, which creates a favorable environment for quick strikes and sustained drives that inflate the scoreboard. Turnovers and special-teams swings could add to the scoring volatility; when either side turns the ball over in opponent territory, short fields often translate into easy points. Weather and venue factors at M&T Bank Stadium are not expected to be extreme, so neither team should be forced into a one-dimensional game plan that would suppress scoring.

With both teams capable of quick scoring, a likely uptick in offensive snaps if Burrow plays, and a market total around 52, the smart lean for Thanksgiving night is the OVER - expect a fast tempo, chunk plays, and enough scoring swings to push this game past the number

Jim's Play: 309. Bengals/Ravens OVER

Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet in another classic midweek MACtion matchup, but this one sets up far differently than the typical high-scoring, wild-tempo MAC shootouts. Both teams have leaned heavily on their running games throughout the season, partly by design and partly due to inconsistent quarterback play. Western Michigan’s offense has been at its best when grinding out long drives and keeping possessions methodical rather than explosive, and their passing game hasn’t shown the consistency needed to push totals upward. Eastern Michigan mirrors that identity: a run-first attack, a conservative approach on early downs, and a passing game that tends to settle for short, low-risk completions. When two ball-control offenses face off, clock bleed becomes a major factor - and it pushes games toward the UNDER.

Defensively, both teams match up well against what the other wants to do. Western Michigan’s front seven has been solid against the run, forcing opponents into slow, low-efficiency drives. Eastern Michigan’s defense, while not dominant, is fundamentally sound and rarely gives up quick-strike plays. Neither offense is built for explosive chunk gains, so long fields and multi-play drives will likely be the norm. Add in the November weather factor - cold, swirling winds, and potentially slick field conditions - and both coaching staffs are likely to lean even more into the ground game and field position. That’s a recipe for fewer possessions, fewer scoring opportunities, and extended stretches where the clock keeps rolling.

This rivalry usually plays tight, physical, and lower-scoring than expected, and the 2025 edition should follow that script. Expect a grind-it-out contest with both teams trading field goals rather than touchdowns. 

Jim's Play: 301. Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan UNDER (MAC Total of the Month)

Sunday’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders features two struggling teams, each entering the contest with a 2–8 record, and both dealing with significant offensive inconsistencies that point strongly toward a low-scoring game. Cleveland’s offense has been among the least productive units in the NFL, averaging just over sixteen points per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 937 yards this season, while running back Quinshon Judkins leads the team with 620 rushing yards, but the Browns have struggled to generate explosive plays or sustained drives. With Gabriel not in Sunday's game, the Browns have announced that Shedeur Sanders will be getting start.  The Raiders aren’t faring much better on the offensive side: quarterback Geno Smith leads the team with 2,082 passing yards, and running back Ashton Jeanty has produced 554 rushing yards, yet Las Vegas has consistently fallen into long scoring droughts and remains near the bottom of the league in points per game.

The Raiders defensive unit, while not elite, has benefited from the slow pace and inefficiency of their offenses, which naturally shortens games and suppresses scoring. The Browns have the 2nd rated defense in the NFL and top rushing defense. Cleveland’s defense thrives when forcing opponents into long, methodical drives, and the Raiders have shown an ability to limit big plays, even if they give up yardage between the 20s. With neither team equipped to push the tempo or create frequent explosive plays, this matchup sets up as a grind-it-out contest dominated by field position, conservative play-calling, and long stretches of clock-draining possessions.

Given the sluggish offenses, the reliance on short passing and predictable run schemes, and the tendency for both teams to stall in the red zone, this game profiles as a strong candidate to go UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 257. Browns / Raiders UNDER 

Sunday’s Seahawks-Titans matchup sets up as a grind, and the profile points to the Under. Seattle arrives at 7-3 with a top-tier defense (allowing 19.3 ppg, 6th) and a balanced offense that doesn’t need to force pace on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold (2,541 pass yards), Kenneth Walker III (606 rush yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,146 rec yards) headline the production, but Seattle has increasingly leaned on defense and situational football to win-an approach that shortens games. 

 On the other side, Tennessee is 1-9 and ranks at or near the bottom of the league offensively: 14.3 points per game (32nd), 163.6 passing yards (30th), 78.9 rushing yards (32nd). QB Cam Ward (1,954 pass yards), Tony Pollard (502 rush yards), and Chig Okonkwo (337 rec yards) top the Titans’ stat board, but sustained drives have been elusive and explosive plays scarce. 

Put together, Seattle’s stingy scoring defense plus Tennessee’s league-worst output create a narrow scoring corridor. If the Seahawks play from ahead, they can lean on the run and their pass rush; if the game stays tight, the Titans’ conservative approach and third-down struggles keep the clock moving. Either way, the matchup math favors limited possessions and red-zone stalls, making this a strong lean for the game to stay Under the total.

Jim's Play: 249. Seahawks/Titans UNDER 

Michigan enters at 9-1 overall, 6-1 in the Big Ten, still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. The Wolverines have leaned on their elite defense all season, allowing just 14.2 points per game, ranking among the nation’s best. Their defensive front, led by Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, has consistently shut down opposing run games, while their secondary has limited explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has been efficient but not explosive, averaging 29 points per game, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy managing the offense and running back Donovan Edwards providing balance. Their style of play emphasizes ball control and field position, which naturally keeps scoring totals lower.

Maryland comes in at 6-4, 4-3 in the Big Ten, looking to secure bowl positioning. The Terrapins have been inconsistent offensively, averaging 25 points per game, but quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled against elite defenses, throwing multiple interceptions in key games. Maryland’s offensive line has been shaky, and facing Michigan’s pass rush will likely force them into a conservative game plan. Defensively, the Terps have been respectable, allowing 23 points per game, and they’ve shown the ability to limit opponents in the red zone.

Given Michigan’s defensive dominance and Maryland’s offensive struggles against top-tier competition, this number feels inflated. The Wolverines are built to grind games out, and Maryland’s defense is capable of keeping the score respectable even in defeat. Expect Michigan’s defense to dictate tempo, Maryland’s offense to struggle to sustain drives, and both teams to lean on conservative play-calling. With Michigan’s ball-control approach and Maryland’s limitations, this matchup projects as a low-scoring affair. Play the game to go Under the total points on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 143. Michigan/Maryland UNDER

Buffalo enters Week 12 at 7-3, riding momentum after a high-scoring win over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns in that game, but he also threw two interceptions, highlighting the risk of turnovers against a disciplined defense. The Bills’ offense has been explosive at times, averaging over 26 points per game, yet their production has been inconsistent when facing top-tier defenses. On the road in Houston, Allen will be challenged by a Texans unit that ranks among the league’s best in both yards and points allowed, surrendering just 16.3 points per game. Buffalo’s defense has also been stout, holding opponents under 20 points in four of their last six contests, which further supports a lower-scoring projection.

Houston comes in at 5-5, fresh off a gritty 16-13 win over Tennessee. The Texans’ offense has been limited without star quarterback C.J. Stroud, leaning on Davis Mills to manage the game rather than push the ball downfield. Houston has averaged just 18 points per game over their last month, relying heavily on their defense to keep them competitive. That defense has been elite, ranking first in total yards allowed and consistently shutting down opposing passing attacks. Against Buffalo, the Texans will look to slow tempo, force Allen into mistakes, and grind out possessions with their run game.

Houston’s defensive strength and offensive limitations, combined with Buffalo’s tendency to struggle against top defenses, this number feels inflated. Both teams are built to win through defense, and the Texans’ ability to control pace at home should keep scoring in check. Expect Buffalo’s offense to be tested by Houston’s elite defense, while the Texans’ conservative approach limits explosive plays. With both teams leaning on their defenses and the Texans’ offense lacking firepower, this Thursday night showdown projects as a grind-it-out battle. Play the game to go Under the total points.

Jim's Play: 111. Bills/Texans UNDER

The Dallas Cowboys enter Monday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders as slight road favorites, and the matchup sets up as a pivotal Week 11 clash with betting implications on both the side and total.  The Cowboys come in at 3-5-1, fresh off a bye week that allowed them to regroup after a disappointing home loss to Arizona. Dallas has struggled to find consistency, but quarterback Dak Prescott remains capable of exploiting a Raiders secondary that has been vulnerable to big plays. Running back Javonte Williams has given the Cowboys balance in the ground game, and his ability to finish drives in the red zone could be critical under the prime-time lights. Defensively, Dallas has been uneven, ranking near the bottom against opposing wide receivers, which means the Raiders will look to attack through the air with their vertical passing game.

The Raiders, meanwhile, limp into this contest at 2-7, riding a three-game losing streak. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring just 10 points in last week’s loss to Denver, and they’ve struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith behind a shaky offensive line. While the Raiders have shown flashes at home, their inability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone has been a recurring issue. Defensively, Las Vegas has been competitive but often worn down late in games, which could be problematic against a rested Cowboys team.

The Cowboys have been shaky against the spread this season, but their bye week and the Raiders’ offensive struggles tilt the edge toward Dallas. 

Expect the Cowboys to control the tempo with Prescott’s efficiency and Williams’ production on the ground. Against a Raiders team that has failed to generate momentum, Dallas should find enough balance to secure the win. Take the Cowboys on the money Line to win this Monday Night Football matchup.

Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, and with Prescott capable of pushing the ball downfield and the Raiders likely forced into catch-up mode, points should pile up. The prime-time stage often brings offensive fireworks, and this game sets up no differently.  The Cowboys have the 31st ranked defense, 28th vs rush and 28th vs pass. Only Cincinnati is worse than Dallas.  Play the Over in Cowboys vs. Raiders.

Jim's Play: 477. Cowboys/Raiders Over

Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field is shaping up as a defensive battle, with the weather conditions and both teams’ tendencies pointing toward the game staying under the total of 39.5 points.

The Ravens enter at 4-5, riding a three-game winning streak after a 27-19 victory over Minnesota. Lamar Jackson has been steady but not explosive, throwing for 176 yards last week while adding 36 on the ground. Derrick Henry continues to provide balance in the run game, but Baltimore’s offense has leaned on efficiency rather than fireworks. Defensively, the Ravens have improved in recent weeks, holding opponents under 20 points in back-to-back contests, and their ability to pressure quarterbacks should be a key factor against Cleveland.

The Browns, at 2-7, remain in rebuilding mode. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel showed flashes against the Jets with two touchdown passes, but Cleveland’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and total yards. Running back Quinshon Judkins has been a bright spot, yet the offensive line has struggled to open consistent lanes. Defensively, however, the Browns remain formidable, ranking second overall in total defense and top-five against the pass. Their ability to slow down Jackson’s aerial attack and force Baltimore into long drives makes this matchup particularly favorable for a low-scoring outcome.

Weather will play a role as well. Cleveland’s forecast for Sunday calls for mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-40s. But it's the wind that is most concern with winds up to 35 MPG.  And if you have ever played football you know what havoc the winds can to do a game from passing to kicking and helping defenses. With both teams already leaning on the run and short passing, the wind and cool temperatures should further suppress scoring opportunities.

While the Ravens’ recent surge makes them the side to back, the combination of Cleveland’s defensive strength, Baltimore’s methodical offensive approach, and the weather forecast all point toward a grind-it-out divisional contest.

Jim's Play:  471. Ravens/Browns UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

The Week 11 AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Empower Field at Mile High sets up as a defensive battle. Kansas City enters at 5-4, fighting to stay in the division race after a disappointing loss to Buffalo before their bye. While Patrick Mahomes has historically dominated Denver, the Chiefs’ offense has been inconsistent this season, averaging just 22.7 points per game and struggling to find explosive plays without a true deep-threat receiver. Their defense, however, has been the strength of the team, ranking top-10 in scoring defense and holding opponents under 20 points in five of their last seven contests. Kansas City’s ability to generate pressure and force turnovers has kept them competitive even when the offense stalls.

Denver, meanwhile, comes in at 8-2, riding a seven-game winning streak and boasting a perfect 5-0 home record. Quarterback Bo Nix has managed games efficiently, but the Broncos’ success has been built on their defense, which ranks top-five in points allowed at just 18.2 per game. Denver has been particularly dominant at home, where crowd noise and altitude have helped them limit opponents’ offensive rhythm. Their secondary has been opportunistic, and their pass rush has consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks.

Both teams have offensive talent, the matchup trends toward a lower-scoring affair. The Chiefs’ offensive struggles combined with Denver’s defensive dominance at home suggest long drives, fewer explosive plays, and a game decided by field position. Historically, meetings between these two teams in Denver have leaned toward defensive battles, and with playoff implications raising intensity, both defenses should dictate the pace.

Jim's Play: 473. Chiefs/Broncos UNDER 

Sunday’s NFC West clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair. San Francisco enters at 6-4, looking to rebound after a tough divisional loss to the Rams. Quarterback Brock Purdy is expected back from a toe injury, and his return should stabilize the 49ers’ passing attack, which ranks top-5 in the NFL in yards per game. Christian McCaffrey remains one of the league’s most versatile threats. While the offense has been potent, San Francisco’s defense has shown cracks, giving up 42 points to Los Angeles last week and ranking middle of the pack in scoring defense.

Arizona, meanwhile, comes in at 3-6, but the Cardinals have been competitive at home and are coming off a 44-22 loss to Seattle where their offense still managed over 350 total yards. The Cardinals’ defense, however, has been a liability, ranking bottom-10 in points allowed and struggling to contain explosive passing games. Against a 49ers offense loaded with playmakers, Arizona will likely need to trade scores to stay competitive.

San Francisco has cleared the total in three of its last four games, while Arizona’s defensive issues have consistently pushed their contests higher-scoring. Expect fireworks in Glendale. With Brock Purdy returning to lead San Francisco’s explosive offense, this divisional matchup is primed to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 469. Niners/Cardinals OVER

The Week 11 NFC West clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at SoFi Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair, with the angle favoring the game to go over the total of 48.5 points.

Both teams enter at 7-2, riding four-game winning streaks and battling for first place in the division. Seattle’s offense has been rolling behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who completed 86% of his passes over the last two weeks and led the Seahawks to a 44-22 win over Arizona in Week 10. Running back Zach Charbonnet continues to provide balance, averaging nearly six yards per carry, while Seattle’s receiving corps has been efficient in creating explosive plays. The Seahawks rank top-10 in scoring offense, and their ability to stretch the field vertically has kept defenses off balance.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been equally impressive. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been red-hot, throwing 13 touchdowns with no interceptions over his last three games. Los Angeles is averaging over 30 points per game during their current win streak, with wideouts Davonta Adams and Puka Nacua consistently producing chunk plays. Defensively, the Rams have talent, but they’ve been vulnerable against strong passing attacks, allowing opponents to move the ball through the air.

While both defenses are capable of generating pressure, the offensive firepower on both sides makes the over the stronger play. Seattle has hit overs in three of its last four games, while the Rams have cleared the total in back-to-back contests. With two quarterbacks in rhythm, explosive playmakers on both rosters, and playoff implications raising the stakes, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 467. Seahawks /Rams OVER 

Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium is primed for points. Chicago enters at 6-3, riding momentum after back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Giants. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the spark, averaging over 260 passing yards per game while adding mobility that stresses defenses. The Bears’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring (26.6 points per game), and wide receiver Rome Odunze has emerged as a reliable big-play threat. However, Chicago’s defense has been a liability, ranking 28th in scoring defense and allowing 27.4 points per game, which has consistently pushed their contests into high-scoring territory.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits at 4-5, looking to rebound after a 27-19 loss to Baltimore. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of promise, throwing for 248 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens, but turnovers remain an issue. The Vikings’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 22nd in scoring, yet with playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have the ability to stretch defenses vertically. At home, Minnesota has struggled to close games, but their offensive potential combined with Chicago’s defensive weaknesses sets up a favorable scoring environment.

The Bears’ offensive surge under Williams, paired with their defensive struggles, makes the over the stronger play. Chicago has hit overs in three of its last four games, while Minnesota’s passing attack is well-positioned to exploit the Bears’ secondary. With both teams fighting for divisional positioning and capable of trading scores, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 461. Bears/Vikings OVER

This Wednesday night MAC showdown between Toledo and Miami (Ohio) at Yager Stadium sets up as a defensive grind, with both teams’ strengths pointing toward the game staying under the posted total of 45.5 points. Toledo enters at 5-4, fresh off a dominant 42-3 win over Northern Illinois, but the Rockets’ identity this season has been built on their elite defense, which ranks second nationally in total yards allowed and top-five against the pass. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and limit explosive plays has consistently shortened games, forcing opponents into long, inefficient drives. 

Miami (Ohio), also 5-4, leans on a veteran defense and a measured run game. The RedHawks’ offense averages just 25 points per game, and when their ground attack stalls, they struggle to sustain drives. Against Toledo’s brick-wall front, Miami will likely find it difficult to reach its usual rushing benchmarks, which has historically been the key to their success.  While Toledo’s offense has shown flashes-quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for over 300 yards last week-the Rockets are not a tempo team. They thrive on methodical possessions, winning first downs and grinding out 8-10 play drives. That style, combined with Miami’s conservative approach, points toward a slower pace and fewer possessions overall. Miami’s defense, ranked top-40 nationally in scoring defense, is capable of holding Toledo in check, especially in the red zone where the Rockets have occasionally stalled.

Two defenses ranked among the MAC’s best, offenses that prefer balance over explosiveness, and a rivalry game where field position and special teams could dictate the outcome. With both teams fighting for MAC East positioning, expect a tight, possession-heavy contest where points come at a premium.

Pregame angle: Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) is primed to stay under the total, with both defenses controlling the pace and limiting scoring opportunities in a midweek MAC grinder.

Jim's Play: 307.  Toledo/Miami UNDER

The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings will match up on Sunday  Week 10. The total is in the high-40s (48–49) as of Sunday afternoon, which is on target with two teams that have each flirted with shootout territory at different points: Baltimore has shown an explosive passing and rushing balance led by Lamar Jackson and playmakers who delivered a 28–6 bounce-back win last week, while Minnesota, buoyed by J.J. McCarthy’s resurgence and a 27–24 win over Detroit, has leaned into quicker tempo and efficient third-down offense at U.S. Bank Stadium. The matchup dynamics favor the over: Baltimore can create chunk plays through Jackson’s arm and quarterback-designed runs, and Minnesota can respond with a multi-route passing attack and Aaron Jones’ downhill running that forces defenses into conflict; both teams have also shown recent defensive vulnerabilities on extended drives and in giving up big-play yardage, which would raise the odds of long possessions and quick-scoring responses instead of a low-possession, slow-paced slog. Both teams in need of momentum in the third quarter of the season should push the coaches to be aggressive on fourth downs and in two-minute windows - coaching tendencies that typically help to lift totals. Bettors hunting value would have their best chance by targeting the game to go over the listed total.

Jim's Play: 261. Ravens / Vikings OVER 

Buffalo comes in off a strong stretch, with its defense ranked 12th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed per game, at roughly 311.3 yards and ~20.9 points respectively. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is improving steadily, particularly in its short-pass game — a 75% completion rate in certain zones validates the notion they’re finding more rhythm. Both teams also rank among the league’s best in third-down conversion rates (Bills ~69.9%, Dolphins ~67.8%), which strongly supports sustained drives, red-zone trips and ultimately higher scoring. The market’s expected point total sits around 50.5.

So what drives the “Over”? Buffalo still has explosive offensive capability under Josh Allen, and although Miami’s record (2-7) looks rough, those numbers largely mask an offense that has shown bursts and a defense that’s prone to giving up chunk plays. And for Miami, facing a Bills team that attacked efficiently ahead — you can expect some back-and?forth. Combine the statistical foundation (efficient third downs, red-zone conversion potential) with recent trends and the divisional familiarity, and you’ve got the recipe for a higher-scoring affair. Expect multiple possessions, likely at least one defensive breakdown or big play, and both teams moving the ball enough to push the total beyond 50.

In short: I’m expecting this one to clear the line — Over the total is the lean.

Jim's Play: 257. Bills / Dolphins OVER 

Tampa Bay hosts New England at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, and the setup tilts to the Buccaneers. The Patriots arrive 7-2 behind rookie Drake Maye and a top-ranked run defense, but they’re shorthanded with Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte ruled out, which narrows their margin on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-2, back from a bye, and gets a timely boost with starting right tackle Luke Goedeke activated, helping stabilize protection for Baker Mayfield. The Bucs’ pass rush has been productive, tied for fifth in sacks, and that pressure plus home crowd noise can bother a young quarterback. Red zone is another swing area: Tampa’s efficiency has lagged, but the Patriots have struggled badly defending inside the 20. Both these offenses can put up big numbers.  The Patriots are 12th in the league in total offense, 19th in rushing and 9th in passing. The Bucs are 17th in overall offense, 24th in rushing and 13th passing. Both teams likely to put up a log of passes here today. I'm taking the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 263. Patriots / Buccaneeres OVER

The Monday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals (2-5) and Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1) sets up as a sneaky shootout. Despite both teams struggling midseason, the ingredients for a high-scoring affair are in place.

Arizona’s offense, led by veteran Jacoby Brissett in Kyler Murray’s absence, has quietly remained competitive. They’ve lost five straight, but none by more than four points, and they’ve scored 23+ in three of those games. Dallas’s defense, typically a strength, was gashed for 44 points last week by Denver. Their secondary has been vulnerable, and they’ve allowed 27+ points in four of their last five outings.  Both teams trend OVER: Dallas is 6-2 to the Over this season, and Arizona’s last three games have all cleared the posted totals. 

With a total set at 54.5, this game could easily eclipse that mark if both offenses find rhythm early. Look for explosive plays, red zone efficiency, and a few defensive breakdowns to push this one OVER.

As for the side play. 

Dallas is undefeated at AT&T Stadium this season (2-0-1), and they’ve historically performed well in prime time.  QB Dak Prescott, despite a rough Week 8, is still the more dynamic passer. Brissett is serviceable but lacks the upside to stretch the field consistently.  After surrendering 44 to Denver, expect Matte Eberflus's unit to tighten up. Arizona’s offensive line has struggled, and Brissett has been sacked 7 times in his last two starts. Dallas sits second in the NFC East and needs this win to stay in playoff contention.  They are in a must win spot at this point in the season. Arizona, meanwhile, is reeling and coming off a bye with little momentum.  The Cardinals are in last in the NFC West and all three teams above them have five wins. 

I'll take the Cowboys here on Monday, but I will take them on the Money Line to just win the game and not have to cover the spread. 

Seattle has found a lot of offensive success through the first half of the season. Sam Darnold has connected with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns in just his first seven starts for the Seahawks. Smith-Njigba is leading the NFL in receiving yards through Week 8 and his connection with Darnold has helped Seattle have one of the most explosive passing games in the league. With the help of Kenneth Walker III on the ground, the Seahawks have created a complete and balanced offense that should move the ball against a Washington defense that has shown vulnerability to big plays in 2025. Seattle should be able to find gaps in the Commanders defense and continue their scoring ways on Sunday night.

The return of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels from injury has provided the Commanders with a major offensive upgrade. Daniels has shown great poise in the pocket and also possesses the athleticism and vision to run for positive yardage. His combination of passing and rushing ability will create problems for Seattle’s defense, which will have to respect the possibility of him breaking the pocket for chunks of yards at any time. Daniels will have the weapons he needs to connect with if star wide receiver Terry McLaurin is unable to go in this contest, as Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson Jr. have all proven to be reliable targets in their own right. With the game being at home and the stage of primetime, Washington has all the motivation they need to keep up with a potent Seahawks offense, and that should be reflected in an aggressive and attacking game plan from coach Dan Quinn and his staff.

The current total is being set around 47-48.5 points and all signs point to this game going OVER. Seattle has been scoring at a rate of just under 27 points per game this season, while Washington has the talent and offense to also string together drives in the scoring column, especially when Daniels is at the helm. The defenses have both looked weak at times and especially have struggled when games are on the line in the red zone, which leads to the possibility of touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Daniels and Darnold are both athletic enough to extend plays and open up the game with their feet. This game could very well turn into an offensive shootout, and with two of the best games in the NFL facing off against each other, the OVER is the smart play.

Jim's Play: Take: 473. Seahawks/Commanders Over 

Kansas City and Buffalo have developed one of the NFL’s top rivalries this decade, and Sunday’s meeting has all the markings of a playoff game, which is not a surprise given the high level of play both teams are showcasing. For the Chiefs, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been heating up in recent weeks, having tossed nine touchdowns over the past three games, and the addition of Rashee Rice to the mix gives Kansas City another trusted target along with Travis Kelce and burner Xavier Worthy. Combined with the strong production from running back, the Chiefs offense has been efficient and balanced all season. In an area of weakness for the Bills’ defense, the run game, Kansas City should have an easy time establishing the ground attack, sustaining drives, and putting points on the board. Buffalo has had one of the NFL’s most efficient home winning streaks in recent weeks, and quarterback Josh Allen is always at his best in front of a Bills’ home crowd. Running back James Cook III  who already has seven rushing touchdowns in eight games, and Buffalo has the weapons to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense, score for score. If there’s one area of Kansas City’s defense that the Bills can exploit, it’s against mobile quarterbacks. The Chiefs have been opportunistic, but the defense is playing at a step slower than their opponents’ quarterbacks are capable of attacking with. Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and make throws downfield will be the key to keeping Buffalo’s offense going.

For these reasons, the betting market has set the over/under for this game at 52.5 points, the highest of the week. Both teams are in the top ten in scoring offense, and the last 10 games between these teams have featured six OVER games. When you add in the big-play ability of the offenses for both teams, led by two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Mahomes and Allen, the stage is set for yet another high-scoring affair.

This Week 9 meeting between Kansas City and Buffalo checks all the boxes of a potential classic, featuring two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks at the helm, explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the playoff implications that are present with every game this late in the season. Expect this game to be a back-and-forth affair full of momentum swings, big plays, and the scoreboard to keep climbing at both ends. The smart bet is for this game to go OVER the total points.

Jim's Play: Take: 471. Chiefs/Bills OVER 

Denver has found ways to win its past five games by controlling the clock, winning the turnover battle and keeping the points down. Rookie QB Bo Nix has been efficient (4 TDs, 1 INT in last week’s win at Dallas) but Denver’s offense is a run-first attack led by J.K. Dobbins and designed to be methodical and protect the football. Head coach Sean Payton has been outspoken about reducing mistakes and winning the field-position battle, and that has helped keep the Broncos ahead but also kept the pace of games down. The Broncos defense is also top-10 in the league in points allowed, and they generate pressure up front without blitzing, forcing opponents into errors.

Houston has exceeded expectations so far in 2025, and it is all because of the development of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been better every week, including his best game yet in last week’s 26-17 win at San Francisco, when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Texans offense has also struggled to consistently finish drives in the red zone and has gone away from the run at times. Houston has the defensive chops to make Denver’s offense work for everything this week, and it’s led by second-year pro Will Anderson Jr. at outside linebacker. The Texans’ defense is near the top of the league in yards allowed and has shown the ability to limit big plays and could again this week against Denver. The over/under opened around 43 points but has been bet down to about 39.5–40.5, and that price looks right considering both teams are susceptible to games that stay UNDER this season. Denver has gone UNDER in four of its last six games, and Houston has gone UNDER in three of its last four. Add in the potential for long drives and turnovers being the difference in this game, and points will likely be at a premium.

Jim's Play: 463. Broncos/Texans UNDER  

The Chicago Bears (4-3) will face the Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, at Paycor Stadium in Week 9. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points. This number has value going OVER based on the offensive playmaking ability of both teams as well as their recent scoring output.

Chicago comes into this game after a 30-16 loss to Baltimore but the Bears’ offense has been trending in the right direction with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams leading the way. Williams is already over 1,600 yards through the air on the season and has a dynamic young wide receiver in Rome Odunze, who he has quickly developed chemistry with down the field. Swift is a dynamic playmaker who has been good as both a runner and receiver, but he will miss this game on Sunday due to a hip injury.  They will also be without backup RB Roschon Johnson. Rookie RB Kyle Monangai  will take the heavy load at RB here on Sunday.  Chicago is averaging 24 points per game on the season and has scored over 25 points in four of its last five games. The Bears will likely lean heavily on Williams and the passing game early and often in this contest, which means a high-scoring affair is likely.

The Bengals come into this game off a 39-38 loss to the Jets in Week 8. The Bengals were able to be explosive on offense in that game but their defense also struggled as the Jets scored 38 points. Cincinnati signed veteran quarterback Joe Flacco midseason after starting quarterback Joe Burrow went down with an injury and it looks like it was a move of pure genius. Flacco has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games and he has one of the best receivers in the game in Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal. Cincinnati’s passing game is almost certain to score points in this game and the defense will likely struggle to keep Chicago from doing the same. The Bengals are giving up almost 30 points per game over their last three games, and it seems reasonable to expect a similar showing in this game.

The total is set at 51.5 points. Cincinnati’s last two games have totaled over 70 points and Chicago has averaged nearly 380 yards of offense over its last three games. The match-ups between both offenses are tantalizing, with two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly down the field, and both teams having playmakers that can take over games at any moment. The two defenses have struggled to make stops consistently as well, so expect another shootout in this one that results in a win for the OVER.

Jim's Play: 451. Bears/Bengals OVER 

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) travel to Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans (1-7) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, in a Week 9 AFC matchup. With the over/under set at 43.5 points, the offensive firepower of Justin Herbert and the Chargers combined with Tennessee’s defensive injuries make the OVER the smart play.

The Chargers come into this game riding momentum after a dominant 37-10 win over Minnesota in Week 8. Justin Herbert has been in peak form, leading the NFL in passing yards and ranking among the top three in touchdown passes. His chemistry with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston has given Los Angeles a vertical passing attack that can stretch defenses, while Kimani Vidal has provided balance on the ground with his physical running style. Against a Titans defense missing key starters like Jeffery Simmons and Arden Key, Herbert should have plenty of time to operate and push the ball downfield. The Chargers have averaged 27 points per game over their last three outings, and their offensive rhythm suggests another high-scoring performance is on the horizon.

For Tennessee, the season has been a struggle, but there are reasons to believe they can contribute to the total. Rookie quarterback Cameron Ward has shown flashes of promise, throwing for over 250 yards in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Titans’ offense has been inconsistent, they still have playmakers in Tony Pollard and Treylon Burks who can generate chunk plays. With the Chargers’ defense prone to giving up explosive gains through the air, Ward may find opportunities to keep Tennessee competitive on the scoreboard, even if they ultimately fall short.

The betting market has the total set at 43.5 points, and the matchup dynamics lean toward the OVER. The Chargers’ offense is too potent to be slowed by a depleted Titans defense, and Tennessee’s ability to score in garbage time or on a few big plays should help push the total past the number. Add in the fact that Los Angeles has hit the OVER in four of their last six games, and the conditions are ripe for another high-scoring affair.

In short, this Week 9 clash looks like a game where the Chargers dictate tempo, Herbert lights up the stat sheet, and the Titans do just enough offensively to push the scoreboard higher. The smart play is on this contest going OVER 43.5 points.

Jim's Play: Take: 465. Chargers/Titans OVER 

In their Week 8 Monday Night Football showdown, the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs both point towards a high scoring affair, which makes this prime time matchup one to watch at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been a well-oiled machine, going into the game at 4-3 and fresh off of a 31-0 annihilation of the Raiders last week. Patrick Mahomes threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while Kansas City’s dynamic duo of wideouts, with Rashee Rice returning from suspension and Travis Kelce continuing to be as impossible to cover as ever, were on top of their game. Meanwhile, Washington is entering with a not-so-favorable record of 3-4 and the possibility of losing Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels. However, back up QB Marcus Mariota showcased big play ability in relief, including a 34-yard run of his own last week against the Dallas Cowboys. The 44-22 defeat was one that showed the potential of Commanders’ ability to score points as well as move the ball behind playmakers such as Robbie Chosen and the rest of their dynamic backfield. While the Chiefs’ defense has stepped up, Washington is a very aggressive scheme that will look to expose gaps in coverage through Mariota’s mobility when it matters least. Kansas City’s offense is an early touchdown bonanza waiting to happen, and if Washington can keep pace late as they have shown potential to, this game should cruise past the total in a prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play : Take: 283. Commanders/Chiefs OVER

Missouri arrives with a potent offense, averaging roughly 41.7 points per game and allowing about 19.5 points on defense. They’re piling up yards: around 242 passing and 245 rushing per game. Among their key players: QB Beau Pribula leads the team with about 1,617 passing yards so far. RB Ahmad Hardy has emerged as a major threat, rushing for roughly 840 yards. Missouri’s defense is stout too — opponents average just over 4.1 yards per play.

On the Vanderbilt side, they’ve been quietly effective. They average about 41.4 points per game and give up about 20.0. QB Diego Pavia has thrown for approximately 1,569 yards this season. Vanderbilt’s offense is balanced and efficient, and their defense has tightened up, especially in home games.

Given these stats and match-up dynamics, here’s why Vanderbilt covering and the total going under makes sense: Missouri’s high-powered offense has been impressive, but Vanderbilt at home is disciplined and able to slow things down. Vanderbilt’s improved defensive consistency suggests they’ll force Missouri into a more deliberate pace. Meanwhile, the Commodores’ offense, led by Pavia, can keep enough pressure on Missouri without turning it into a shoot-out. I expect both defenses to win pivotal moments - the game stays comfortable but not wild, so the total stays under. 

Jim's Play: 183. Missouri/Vandy UNDER 

Minnesota comes in with a 3-3 record, currently in 4th in the NFC North. Offensively they’ve had some movement: 1,525 total yards or an average of a little over 305 yards per game. They are 534 yards on the ground (4.5 yards per carry) and 1,121 through the air (224 or so per game, give or take). Defensively they’ve held their own at times: among the better yards-against rates in the league early on. But they’ve also had trouble with turnovers and the red-zone: finding difficulty converting trips to the end zone while also being prone to giving up big plays at inopportune times. They’re a talented team, but with lapses of concentration and mistakes. They need to clean it up. 

The Chargers are currently 4-3, in 2nd in the AFC West. Offensively they’ve had more productivity: 2,609 total yards through seven games - averaging a little over 372 yards per game. They have 778 yards on the ground (averaging 111 yards per game) and 1,957 through the air (roughly 280 per game). On third-down situations the Chargers convert on about 46% of their attempts and have a slight negative turnover margin (-3). Defensively and structurally, they’re showing some positive changes under new coaching. But they still give up plays and lack overall consistency.

The Vikings are better on the ground (534 yards so far), and that Minnesota rushing attack will test the Chargers’ front line. If the Vikings can get a push, set up play-action, control time of possession, they’ll keep LA’s defense on its heels.  The Chargers are a passing-oriented team and have been able to move the ball through the air effectively. Minnesota’s secondary and pass rush will need to show up to disrupt that. The Chargers have the home field advantage, which should help - they have the room to be loose. 

The Chargers right now are a more stable team: record is better, less glaring issues. The Vikings have the talent and potential to put up a fight, but they also have real issues, inconsistency, turning it over. If the Vikings show up, play a disciplined game and minimize their mistakes they have a chance.  I expect both teams to be able to move the ball here on Thursday and put up plenty of points in this one.  I don't like either side that much but I do like the game to go OVER the total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 109. Vikings/Chargers OVER 

Week 7 comes to a close with one of the best NFC battles of the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Monday night. Tampa Bay is at 5-1 and sitting atop the conference, while the Lions are 4-2 and hungry after a bad loss to Kansas City on the road. There are also some similarities: Both have dynamic offenses, playmakers at every level and a playoff atmosphere that should make for a highly entertaining prime time contest.

Baker Mayfield continues to have efficient play in key moments and strong chemistry with a retooled receiving group. Mike Evans is expected back from a hamstring injury and rookie Emeka Egbuka is a game-time decision, while Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have been ruled out. Even with those players missing, Tampa’s offense has weapons that can beat a Lions defense that has serious problems in the secondary through the air.

Detroit has ridden a physical run game, play-action with quarterback Jared Goff and opportunistic defense to get to 4-2. The Lions have the fourth-best run DVOA and have proven to be one of the league’s best teams at run defenses this year, but the Buccaneers run defense is more susceptible and will need to answer the bell against D’Andre Swift and the run game. Safety Brian Branch will be suspended and out for the Lions, which does not bode well for a secondary that already was prone to big plays.

Both of these teams will be able to score. The number in this game is hovering around 52.5 points and the matchup could play over that. Tampa will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script with their injuries, and the Lions will look to control tempo but take what they need to through the air, too, if the Buccaneers get aggressive. Both offenses have been able to do this with their quarterbacks in good form and their defenses showing some cracks, most notably inside the red zone. This game has shootout potential if both sides play up to form.

Jim's Play: 475. Bucs/Lions OVER

The Denver Broncos (4-2) come into Week 7 with a high-powered defense that is one of the best in the NFL, and an improving offense. The New York Giants (2-4) have a good defense of their own but are still struggling to find identity and rhythm on offense, especially on the road, where they are 0-3. They are visiting Mile High in this Sunday matchup against the Broncos, a team looking to prove it has the ability to compete with any team on any given Sunday. The two teams have a sharp contrast in strengths - Denver has a top-five defense, and the Giants have a growing offense - and their game should be low-scoring with lots of stops and starts.

The Broncos have the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up only 15.8 points per game. The defense has actually been even better over their three-game win streak, allowing only 10.3 points and 181 total yards per game in their last three wins. The Denver offense has been competent but unspectacular, led by QB Bo Nix, who has 1,277 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on around 64.6% passing in six games played. Nix has been flanked by J.K. Dobbins and Laviska Shenault Jr. in the backfield. Dobbins has 442 yards on 90 carries (4.9 Y/A, 4 TD) and Shenault 232 yards on 34 catches (6.8 Y/C).

The Giants are one of the few teams with a rookie running back in Cam Skattebo who has had better production than most vets in the league. Skattebo has recorded five total touchdowns (5), tied for the most among all rookies this season. On the other hand, New York has a record of 2-4, and their offense in particular has been mostly middling to put it lightly. 

Field position and execution in the trenches should dictate which team has more success in the game. The Broncos’ pass rush will be able to create chaos against the Giants’ offensive line, and New York will likely have trouble consistently sustaining drives without big plays. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense hasn’t looked great but has also been capable of moving the ball. The Broncos have done a good job of methodically wearing defenses down over long drives and run games. A final score of under 40.5 points is looking very likely with the game script for this one. This is a game that should come down to winning the line of scrimmage and field position, and both defenses are superior to their opposing offenses. Expect long, plodding drives on both sides and a physical, defense-oriented game.

Jim's Play : 467. Giants/Broncos UNDER 

In a key NFC showdown, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Eagles come in with confidence after a strong first half of the season, riding a dominant run game and efficient defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, showing flashes of promise but lacking the execution needed to hang with elite opponents.

 It’s a must-win for Minnesota if they want to stay afloat, while the Eagles have been firing on all cylinders in the first half of the season and will feel good about their chances to win it in the North. However, the Vikings have played lights out at home this year, and an upset could be in the cards if they can be physical, take care of the football, and hold an Eagles offense that will likely be conservative on the road.

The outcome of the game will be decided in the trenches. The Eagles O-line has remained one of the best in football and will look to run the ball right at the Vikings to control time of possession. Philadelphia has enough at the skill positions to take what’s given to them, and with Jared Goff out they’re also a solid bet to be well under the projected pass attempts. The Vikings have been leaky in pass protection, and they’ll be tested by a Philadelphia front four that can create pressure without bringing extra defenders. Minnesota’s offense can easily be stalled by that pressure, and if the Vikings fall behind early it could get ugly. They will need to keep the Eagles honest with quick throws, and their defense will have to create opportunities to change the possession in their favor.

 The Eagles will likely grind out clock, go conservative on offense, and be efficient. Minnesota will likely need to be as well to give themselves a chance, though they are capable of a cover on the back end. Both teams can be stopped in the red zone, and long possessions might end in field goals.

Jim's Play: 461. Eagles/Vikes UNDER 

Two struggling teams will clash in Cleveland on Sunday as the 1-5 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Both franchises are desperate to stop the bleeding and salvage their seasons, but this game is shaping up to be a gritty, low-scoring affair, especially with extreme weather conditions in the forecast.

The Dolphins come in with major concerns on both sides of the ball. Their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, failing to consistently protect the quarterback or establish a reliable ground game. More troubling, though, is their defense- particularly against the run. Miami currently ranks last in the NFL, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game. That could spell trouble against a Browns team that, despite offensive struggles, excels at running the football and has a punishing offensive line.

Cleveland hasn’t looked much better on offense. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent, and explosive plays have been rare. But their defense - especially their run-stopping front - is a bright spot, giving up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. Defensive end Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front seven should be able to generate pressure and contain Miami’s offense, particularly if the Dolphins are forced into obvious passing situations.

Weather will play a significant role. The forecast calls for heavy rain, 94% precipitation, and wind gusts between 40-60 mph. That will likely eliminate the deep passing game and make field goals treacherous. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both teams, with coaches focused on field position, ball security, and clock control.

These conditions heavily favor Cleveland. Their physical running game and superior defense are built for bad weather. Meanwhile, Miami’s struggles to stop the run and protect the ball become even more problematic in a muddy, windy battle. The Dolphins’ best shot may come from forcing turnovers or getting a special teams boost.

Given all of these factors, expect a sluggish, low-scoring affair. The total is likely to go under, as both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air or finish drives. Vegas has Cleveland favored, and for good reason - they’re better built for ugly football.

Jim's Play: 456. Dolphins/Browns UNDER 

Sunday’s international game lands in London as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars hop over the pond for this week 7 clash. Both squads have competent offenses, but travel, the time-zone shift, and the match-ups should favor a lower-scoring affair. The Jaguars have been to London numerous times in the last several seasons, but the Rams pack a veteran presence in Matthew Stafford who is never as explosive as the home team on the road. Both defenses are trending in the right direction, and fields are usually more sluggish overseas, so let’s take the Under.

Stafford is still effectively piloting the Rams’ offense, having eclipsed 1,500 passing yards and recorded 10 touchdowns, but the team has committed to a balanced attack, using more of running back Kyren Williams to dictate the pace. Davante Adams has recorded over 500 receiving yards, and Puka Nacua has emerged as a reliable second option, but Los Angeles could look to be more ball-control focused and avoid big plays against a Jacksonville secondary that can match up well with most opponents. Note: Nacua is expected to miss Sunday's game with a leg injury. 

Jacksonville will test the Rams’ defense with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr., but the Jaguars have occasionally been wasteful at the end of drives, settling for field goals over touchdowns. Lawrence has close to 1,600 passing yards through eight games, and Etienne is always a play-making threat in space, but the Rams defensive front is well equipped to stuff inside runs. The Jaguars’ defense, anchored by linebacker Foye Oluokun and edge rusher Josh Allen, has also improved over recent weeks, regularly getting opponents into third-and-long and keeping games close.

The offense can take time to find a rhythm, especially after a long trip, but both units can move the ball. Look for longer, more conservative possessions and less emphasis on field position.

Jim's Play: 451. Rams/Jags UNDER

Texas Tech is 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big 12 play. Arizona State comes in at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference games. On Texas Tech’s side, their quarterback Behren Morton has completed 104 of 152 passes for 1,501 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Their rushing leader, C. Dickey, has carried the ball 92 times for 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the receiving end, C. Douglas has 24 catches for 395 yards and 1 touchdown so far.

For Arizona State, Sam Leavitt has thrown 99 of 157 for 1,039 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 3 picks. Running back Raleek Brown has 91 carries for 573 yards (though modest touchdown production so far). At wideout, Jordyn Tyson has 47 receptions for 523 yards and has been one of Leavitt’s primary targets.

Given those numbers, the game looks to be a shootout. Tech’s offense is humming, and Arizona State has at least one explosive threat in Tyson to keep defenses honest. If ASU can avoid stalling drives and Texas Tech continues to execute, there’s a reasonable path for the total to go over.

Jim's Play: 407. Texas Tech/Arizona State OVER

This rivalry always brings energy. TCU leads the all-time series 59–54–7. For this season, both Baylor and TCU come in at 4-2. The betting market has TCU as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under is in the 65.5 range (66.5 in some books).

What supports the “over” case is that both offenses have shown they can put up points, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game offensively, though their defense gives up 29.7 points per game. TCU’s offense is averaging about 35.3 PPG, while their defense concedes around 24.7 PPG. That suggests both sides are capable of putting up moderate output, making a high-scoring game plausible.

Baylor’s quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been one of their consistent weapons. In their recent win vs. Kansas State, he threw for 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Baylor’s passing offense is a key part of their identity and their ability to stretch defenses. On the ground, Bryson Washington has chipped in, but Baylor’s strength leans toward getting chunk plays through the air. Also, Baylor’s defense tends to struggle in stopping big plays in the pass game — that opens the door for TCU to hit quick strikes.

On TCU’s side, quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of pushing tempo and making big throws. Baylor’s defensive metrics in pass defense are among the weaker spots, making them susceptible to explosive gains. Also, Baylor ranks low in run-defense metrics (for example, in defensive EPA per rush), so if TCU leans on a balanced attack, they could get enough yardage on the ground to force Baylor’s defense to stay honest.

Another angle: Baylor has a strong track record in “overs” recently. The total has gone over in 12 of Baylor’s last 16 games. And in Big 12 play, Baylor’s games often produce more points than expected. 

Given the matchup, I see Baylor and TCU trading blows. Each team has the ability to drive into the red zone and find ways to score, especially if there are defensive breakdowns or big plays allowed. 

Jim's Play: 385. Baylor/TCU OVER 

Thursday night features a Week 6 NFL showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals that has all the makings of an overperforming divisional game. 

The offenses of these two clubs have been trending in the right direction heading into the game. Aaron Rodgers has hit a groove for the Steelers by utilizing timing routes with shallow reads to extend plays. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth have established themselves as dynamic red-zone threats and Pittsburgh’s offensive line has managed to give Rodgers enough time to do his thing. The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has begun to come around for Joe Flacco. He and Ja’Marr Chase are developing rapport in the passing game and Cincinnati has also opened up the playbook to take more deep shots in the passing game after they were a non-factor to start the year.

The defenses of these two squads have not looked great. Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been great at defending the big play and Cincinnati has one of the worst red-zone stop rates in the league. A big-play passing game from either of these offenses combined with a lack of top-tier playmaking in the secondary from the other means there should be multiple scoring drives from each side. Early points on both sides’ opening possessions should set the tone for the over to hit as well.

The total is in the mid-40s and both of these teams have the offense and big-play ability to drive the score over that. Neither defense looks like it will be the kind to force a low-scoring affair and Rodgers and Flacco are both capable of stretching defenses vertically. This game is far more likely to go back-and-forth rather than being a slugfest. 

Buffalo arrives on a strong 4-1 record, but that came to an abrupt end last week as the Bills were stunned at home by the New England Patriots. The Bills’ defense is without a couple of key players right now, safety Damar Hamlin and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders are on IR and linebacker Matt Milano is also out. That hurts them in depth both in the secondary and up front, especially when it comes to trying to slow down dual threats.  Buffalo ranks 9th in defense, 2nd in rush but 29th in pass. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen is a dangerous player both with his arm and his legs; he will try to push the Falcons’ discipline.

But Atlanta does have a few things going for it. First, the Falcons’ pass defense has quietly been one of the better units in the league this season.  The Falcons have the top ranked defense in the NFL, 16th in rush and 1st in pass (135 yards per game). They may have more trouble with Buffalo’s tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, in particular), but if they force contested throws or push the Bills off schedule, that could limit the scoring. On offense, rookie Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a versatile runner who can push what could be a somewhat depleted Buffalo run defense.  And with the Bills already ranked 29th in rush defense it could be a big day for Robinson. The Falcons also get an extra week of preparation thanks to their bye, which should help their game plan and recovery. 

The line is around Bills -4.5 in many places. Not a ton of breathing room there. If Atlanta can establish a balanced attack - lean on Robinson, make enough plays through the air, and force some Buffalo turnovers - they don’t need to win this outright to cover. If Josh Allen is pressured or forced into mistakes, Buffalo could also be capped in how much they can cover for.

All of that said, I like the Falcons to keep this one within a field goal, potentially even flip the script late with a shot at the straight-up win against a poor Bills rush defense. 

Jim's Play: 276. OVER

Cincinnati heads into Lambeau Field reeling. They’re 2–3, riding a three-game losing streak, and just this week traded for Joe Flacco and made him their starting quarterback. The move signals desperation,  their offense has lacked rhythm, and they’ve turned the ball over at key moments. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been much help either, giving up a lot of yards and points in recent weeks.

Green Bay, by contrast, enters 2-1-1 and is coming off a bye. Jordan Love has shown flashes of growth, and the Packers’ offense has a nice balance,  they can move the ball through the air and on the ground,  which puts pressure on Cincinnati to match pace. Even missing Christian Watson hurts their receiving corps, but they still have enough weapons to stress defenses.

Given how weak Cincinnati’s defense has looked and how much the new Flacco-led offense may lean on passing (trying to play catch-up), I expect this game to open up. Green Bay will likely score efficiently, and Cincinnati should push back enough to force Green Bay to stay aggressive.  If both teams hit on explosive plays, this could exceed expectations.

Jim's Play: 271. Bengals/Packers OVER

The LA Chargers make the long East Coast trip to face the Miami Dolphins here on Sunday.   The total for this contest is 43.5, and it’s a low number for a reason. Both sides are coming into this game with incentive to think this will be grind-it-out rather than smash-it-out.

On offense, the Chargers’ line is in tatters. If they can’t protect Herbert, they’ll probably run more, and their run game is probably worse than your typical Chargers team as well, after losing Omarion Hampton to IR earlier in the week. The run/pass balance gets all screwed up in predictable ways. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense is very streaky. They have been unable to put together multi-drive scoring drives, although this has partly been due to their D. But again, this has seemed to be more an issue of precision and talent rather than pure talent. When both offenses are capable of inexplicable stretches of potency that change the whole tenor of the game, it makes it more of a concern for either team to crack the whip in this game. Add that to the fact that neither line is particularly strong, and you could easily see a game that plays like a drag with long drives for the most part, more missed opportunities for each side to do much of anything, and limited explosiveness from either offense. In fact, I think Miami’s D is good enough to force a fair number of those three and outs if they play to form, and at least from a Chargers perspective, they’re not leaving much room for me to see this game “exploding.”

I look for this game to go under the total here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 263. Chargers / Dolphins UNDER

The Colts’ attack has been one of the sharper units through 2025. They’ve been especially crisp on early downs, building into big chains and making defenses have to remain honest. (The Colts are the No. 1 team in first and second down success rate.) Plus, there’s a balance on play-calling: a passing game that can stretch the field plus enough rushing ability to keep defenses off balance. The offensive line has been sturdy, giving the QB a clean pocket more often than not.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have been middling on offense. They haven’t been explosive in the yardage game and are facing an uncertainty at quarterback: Kyler Murray is questionable with a foot injury, and the team is activating backup options. Also, James Conner will miss the rest of the season (after surgery), which further depletes the Cardinals’ depth at running back. Defensively, Arizona has had stretches of resistance, but the Colts’ ability to mix tempo and play types may pressure the secondary and linebacking corps.

Considering the Colts have a short passing game that can score in bunches and the Cardinals will likely be forced into high-risk, high-reward plays to stay in the game, this feels like it’s a shootout in the making. If Arizona is forced into passing situations, this opens up opportunities for big plays and turnovers. Furthermore, the question marks at QB for Arizona could lead to more aggressive play-calling, which tends to lead to more offense but can backfire.

Jim's Play: 255. Cardinals/Colts OVER