enough logical angles as a money-line pick tonight. The Knicks still lead the series 2-1, so we’re looking at a massive bounce-back spot at Madison Square Garden after San Antonio stole Game 3, 115-111. New York is still the favorite and the money line shows the market still views them as the more likely winner at home.

Game 3 was far from a clean performance for the Knicks, but they still only lost by four points. New York struggled with ball movement all night long, finished with just 18 assists on the night and had 13 turnovers the Spurs converted into 21 points. Fix those turnovers and get back to more Brunson-driven half-court execution with optimal spacing and the Knicks can quickly turn a one-possession game around in their favor. 

Also continuing to support Knicks takes as a money-line pick is the supporting-cast bounce-back prop. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges were quieter than the Knicks need them to be for Game 3 success, while putting too much of the scoring burden on Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby. Expect both Towns and Bridges to have big nights at home as the Knicks look to make sure they don’t go back to San Antonio down in the series. New York gets Towns touches early and finds Bridges on offense while locking in defensively. 

San Antonio is scary because Victor Wembanyama went off for 32 points and Stephon Castle added 23, but expecting those young Spurs to win consecutive Finals games at Madison Square Garden is still asking a lot. The Knicks already won twice in this series, including a close 105-104 Game 2 victory, and New York’s playoff experience gives them the edge late as a money-line pick.

Jim's Play: 508.  Knicks (Money Line)

The San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks shooting OVER the total in Game 4 of the NBA Finals all starts with the number. The total sits at around 216.5. Game 3 of this series finished OVER as San Antonio took a 115-111 victory. We saw both teams can produce enough offense in this matchup when the game opens up and allows the stars to draw fouls.

San Antonio’s offense looked fluid in Game 3 as the ball movement returned. The Spurs finished with 28 assists between De’Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle setting their teammates up. Wemby had 32 points, but Castle scored 23 which took the focus off of him. San Antonio had other options to score when the defense focused on Wembanyama.

New York is in a good spot to bounce back on the offensive end as well. The Knicks put up 111 points in Game 3 with Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 11 points. If Towns has a better game for New York, then the Knicks are right back in the 110s with Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby continuing to attack the basket the way they did in Game 3.

Lastly, the flow of Game 4 should set up the OVER in late-game situations. New York leads the series 2-1, but San Antonio has momentum after winning Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. If Game 4 is close once again, both teams are going to play their stars until the game is over. They will attack the rim and fill the paint which should lead to teams extending the last minute of the game on fouls and free throws. That’s what will ultimately push this total in OVER the number.

Jim's Play:  507. Spurs/Knicks OVER 

Why should the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks go OVER in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight? For starters, after Game 1 and Game 2, the over-adjusts lower. Game 2 ended with a final score of 105-104, which stayed UNDER the majority of posted totals but still indicated both teams can manufacture offense late in a close Finals environment.

The series heads to Madison Square Garden with New York up 2-0, and MSG will certainly help juice the Knicks offense in their first NBA Finals home game since 1999.

Brunson is clearly New York’s closer at this point, but Karl-Anthony Towns led the team with 21 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2, which allows the Knicks another proven scoring outlet inside the paint and on the offensive glass. Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges cooking early means we could see the Knicks push toward the 110s.

0-2 is not a sustainable record for the Spurs, so they cannot afford another game where their offense slows down late. Victor Wembanyama must be aggressive early and often. Game 2 ended with the Spurs on the final possession after Wembanyama had a turnover and then airballed the potential game winner, so San Antonio was right in the mix despite not having a great offensive night. Look for faster pace, more attacks at the rim and late-game foul shots in Game 3.

My preferred over scenario is a competitive game where New York’s home atmosphere leads to a quicker pace, San Antonio responds with Wemby and De’Aaron Fox attacking early and often, and the fourth quarter is elongated by fouls. If both teams climb into the low 110s, this total clears.

Jim's Play: 505. Spurs/Knicks OVER 

I'll be looking to take the OVER here in game 2 of the NBA Finals and it's because of the number itself as we have seen it drop after game 1 totaled just 200 points. This number seems attainable if San Antonio plays better at home and New York continues to get efficient late-game offense from Jalen Brunson.

San Antonio WILL play better on offense simply because they cannot afford to let this game slip away like they did in Game 1. The Spurs scored the majority of their points in Game 1 while leading by as many as 14 points, so we know they can create good looks against this Knicks defense. Expect Victor Wembanyama to get more early touches and for San Antonio to attack more in transition before New York’s half-court defense has a chance to set.

As mentioned earlier, New York also has no problem scoring the basketball. Brunson poured in 30 points in Game 1 and was incredible during New York’s fourth-quarter rally. Karl- Anthony Towns finished with 18 points and 12 rebounds while the Knicks also won the second chance scoring category 23-14. Second chance points are huge for the over as offensive rebounds lead to extra possessions, put-back buckets and fouls.

Lastly, both teams should be playing late and attacking the basket. San Antonio is the favorite tonight, but we know the Knicks won’t pack it in. If New York stays within striking distance like they did in Game 1, both teams should be shooting a high volume of free throws in the final two minutes which bodes well for the over.

Jim's Play: 503. Knicks/Spurs OVER

There are several angles I like from the New York Knicks to cover Game 1 of the NBA Championship series against the San Antonio Spurs. Let’s start with the number itself. San Antonio opened a mid-size favorite, which gives New York multiple possessions of cushion in a game that should be far closer than the market thinks. Respect Spurs at home, but the Knicks come into the Finals with some serious momentum having won 11 straight playoff games after sweeping Philadelphia and Cleveland.

The Knicks also get the rest advantage. New York finished off Cleveland quickly and will have 10 days between games, while San Antonio played in a seven-game Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City. That’s important in a Finals opener because the Knicks will have fresher legs, more prep time and hopefully a clean gameplan defensively for Victor Wembanyama.

The biggest edge New York has over San Antonio is balance. Brunson gives the Knicks a late-game closer they can lean on, but this Knicks run hasn’t been predicated on one player. Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart give New York scoring, defense, rebounding and lineup versatility. When those guys are hitting shots New York will stay inside the number, even if San Antonio steals one at home.

There’s also a fatigue component to the matchup that I like against the Spurs. San Antonio just survived Oklahoma City in Game 7 and Wembanyama was required to take huge volume throughout the series, finishing with Western Conference Finals MVP honors after averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. The rookie is obviously the biggest matchup problem for the Knicks, but New York’s size, physicality and defensive versatility forces him to work for everything he gets.

If the Knicks can dictate the pace of this game in the half court, win the rebounding battle and minimize live-ball turnovers that lead to San Antonio’s easy transition buckets, Brunson can control tempo and the Knicks should stay comfortably inside the number. If Towns and Anunoby are hitting shots they absolutely have a shot to win this game outright.

Jim's Play:  501. Knicks

There are three reasons why tonight’s game should stay OVER in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The total  seems attainable if both teams play with normal pace and shot creation tendencies they’re used to throughout the season. It’s Game 1 in San Antonio, too, where the Spurs are favored by less than which typically means both offenses will likely be in it late.

As far as New York they come into the Finals riding an 11-game playoff winning streak and scoring hasn’t just been flowing through Jalen Brunson. Brunson has been great all postseason and gives New York a late-game closer, but Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart give the Knicks enough spacing, rebounding and secondary scoring threats to challenge San Antonio’ defense. Plus, New York has had plenty of rest heading into Game 1, which will serve them well with legs and perimeter shooting.

On San Antonio’s end of the over equation, everything starts with Victor Wembanyama. The Knicks will no doubt defend well, but Wembanyama presents such a unique offensive problem because he can score at the rim, shoot over defenders, draw fouls and create second chance opportunities for himself and his teammates. Bonus: The Spurs offense has been battle-tested after surviving a seven-game Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City, which they won 111-103 in Game 7.  I'll be on the over here in game one tonight. 

Jim's Play: 501. Knicks/Spurs OVER 

Both arguments for the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder going UNDER the total in Saturday’s Game 7 begin with the game’s location. Game 7 is in Oklahoma City. This is naturally a game where both teams are going to tighten up, because it is winner-take-all in the Western Conference Finals, and every possession matters more in Game 7. Both teams know that the winner plays the Knicks in the NBA Finals, so slow and methodical basketball should be emphasized by both coaches.

For Oklahoma City, their offense is the biggest factor in this game going under. Jalen Williams will miss Game 7 due to a hamstring injury, and the Thunder also do not have Ajay Mitchell. Williams averaged 17.1 points, 5.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds during the regular season, so Oklahoma City will once again be without key secondary shot creation to take pressure off of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Scoring could get tough for OKC if Williams is unable to go. 

San Antonio’s defense has also stepped up recently. The Spurs forced Game 7 with a blowout victory in Game 6, as San Antonio scored 118 points while holding Oklahoma City to just 91. Oklahoma City was held to 13 points in the third quarter, while Shai only finished with 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting. This defensive effort from San Antonio is a blueprint for Game 7: slow OKC down, crowd the paint and make Thunder role players take tough shots.

The Spurs offense isn’t clicking on the road consistently either. San Antonio shot the ball extremely well in Game 6, including making 15 three-pointers, but they’ve had shooting droughts in this series, particularly from behind the arc. At one point in this series, the Spurs were shooting only 31.8% from three, and if San Antonio’s shooting regresses on the road in OKC, they might be forced to play slow and win with defense and Victor Wembanyama touches.

Both teams have incentives to play this game slow. Oklahoma City is without Jalen Williams and will look to slow the game down to protect their shorthanded offense. San Antonio will look to rely on their defense and Wembanyama if their outside shooting fails them once again. Both teams also have everything on the line, so expect some tight, nervy play leading to a low-scoring game. 

Jim's Play: 567. Spurs / Thunder UNDER 

This Western Conference Finals matchup is heading back to San Antonio for Game 6 on Thursday. Despite entering this contest down 3-2 in the series, the Spurs are getting considered slight favorites at home in a must-win situation. Home court advantage, desperation and crowd atmosphere will all play into this game at the Frost Bank Center.

Speaking of crowd atmosphere, Wembanyama should be motivated after an inefficient game in Game 5. The French phenom went just 4-For-15 from the floor and finished with 20 points as Oklahoma City cruised to a 127-114 victory. Wembanyama bounced back nicely from a poor Game 3 to dominate Game 4 and help the Spurs dismantle the Thunder, 103-82. San Antonio held OKC to just 33% shooting from the floor and 6-For-33 from three, and that blueprint should carry over into Game 6 at home.

San Antonio has the advantage when it comes to health and readiness heading into Game 6. Oklahoma City is still monitoring Jalen Williams and his hamstring injury, and Ajay Mitchell remains out. The Spurs’ Game 6 injury report listed “no injuries,” which is huge late in such a physical playoff series.

Over their last three games, the Spurs have only shot 29.5% from downtown. However, San Antonio has every reason to believe those triples will start falling at home. If players like De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie can space the floor for Wembanyama, the Spurs offense should operate much more smoothly than it did in Game 5.

Oklahoma City has the opportunity to close out this series on Thursday. It’s never easy to do that in San Antonio, though. If Bruce Brown and Co. can replicate Game 4’s defensive success, limit easy scoring opportunities for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and get more aggression from Wembanyama, the Spurs have a better chance of forcing Game 7 than OKC does at extending the series.

I'll be taking the Spurs on the Money line here on Thursday.

Jim's Play: 564. Spurs (Money Line)

The starting point for the Oklahoma City Thunder covering the spread Tuesday against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the NBA West Finals is obvious: It’s a bounce-back spot. The Thunder hosted Game 5 of this series last season, too, needing a win to stay alive and falling short. This year, OKC is right back home after being dominated 103-82 in Game 4. The loss was awful, sure, but it also sets up an excellent response opportunity for a Thunder team we know can respond in this series. 

The primary reason to like OKC in this spot is Game 4 was such a clear outlier on the offensive end. The Thunder shot 33% from the field and 6-for-33 from three, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander held to just 19 points. That isn’t the Thunder’s M.O., especially with the series on the line at home. Expect a cleaner game from SGA and better shooting from OKC’s role players once the ball tips back in Oklahoma City.

OKC also holds the depth advantage in this matchup. Oklahoma City’s bench scored a franchise playoff-record 76 points in Game 3’s 123-108 win, led by Jared McCain’s 24 points and Jaylin Williams’ 18. That depth matters because San Antonio is still quite reliant on Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio was outscored by 19 points in just nine minutes with Wemby on the bench during Game 3, illustrating how quickly the Thunder can build a lead when San Antonio’s best player sits.

San Antonio absolutely deserves recognition for Game 4’s defensive adjustment, which largely came in the form of SGA defending straight up instead of allowing OKC shooters to pop open. But now it’s on OKC to make its own adjustments. Expect the Thunder to push the pace more, get SGA downhill at a faster rate, attack before San Antonio’s length is fully established, and lean into its home crowd to create defensive pressure.

OKC’s injury report isn’t great — Ajay Mitchell will be out, and Jalen Williams is questionable — but San Antonio isn’t clean either. Spurs guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper have both been injured throughout the playoffs and those health concerns matter when OKC is coming after the ball, looking to run and force mistakes from opposing guards.

This feels like as close to a perfect home bounce-back spot as we’ll see. If SGA returns to his normal level, OKC’s bench produces even an average total and the Thunder create live-ball turnovers, they have every opportunity to cover this game by multiple margins.

Jim's Play: 560. Thunder 

Our NBA East Finals Game of the Year on the New York Knicks to win against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday begins with series command. The Knicks lead the East Finals 3-0. They are one victory away from their first NBA Finals trip since 1999. New York has won 10 playoff games in a row. Game 3 was another definitive win, a 121-108 victory in Cleveland where the Knicks never let the Cavaliers get comfortable.

The biggest reason to fade Cleveland here is balance. Jalen Brunson is still the closer, posting 30 points in Game 3, but the Knicks are not just giving the ball to him late. Mikal Bridges had 22, OG Anunoby had 21, Karl- Anthony Towns and Josh Hart kept rolling on both ends and Landry Shamet provided New York with another huge bench boost. This depth has killed Cleveland in this series. The Cavaliers can stack the floor against Brunson, but New York has too many other winners to worry about offensively and defensively.

What hurts Cleveland the most is how uneven its offense has been throughout the game. Cleveland got 24 points from Evan Mobley, 23 from Donovan Mitchell and 19 from James Harden, but turnovers, poor free throw shooting and even worse three-point shooting sunk them. Harden has also faced heavy scrutiny after yet another late-game playoff collapse. If Cleveland’s guards are not hitting shots at a high level, the Cavs simply do not have enough to work with against a Knicks team that is playing this well.

Keep in mind that the Knicks have also earned the mental advantage. They erased a gigantic deficit in Game 1, took care of business in Game 2 and then went into Cleveland and won Game 3 by more than a basket. The Knicks have not just been riding home court momentum. Their defense, rebounding, shot-making and clutch performance has all translated on the road. Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson even had words of respect for how New York avoided complacency on this historic run.

At the end of the day, our Game of the Year angle is simple: the Knicks are hotter, deeper, tougher and just overall better than Cleveland. Cleveland is fighting for its life here, but the Knicks have already won this matchup three different ways. If Brunson continues to control the game flow, Towns and Bridges continue to attack the rim and stretch the floor, and Anunoby keeps thriving on both ends of the floor, the Knicks have too much strength to fall here.

Jim's Play: 557. Knicks (NBA East Finals Game of the Year)

Desperation and home cooking are two reasons why I will be on the Cleveland Cavaliers straight up Saturday in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Finals.

The Cavs have homecourt and will need it after being down 0-2 in the series and losing both games at the Knicks. This really is the key game for Cleveland as they can ill afford to go down 0-3 in the series.  If Cleveland loses Game 3, they have to win four straight to advance to the NBA Finals.

What the Knicks did best against Cleveland in Game 2 was play bully ball on the glass and make Cleveland pay for fouling the Knicks’ shooters.  New York scored 22 second chance points, which was five more than Cleveland’s total points in the paint. The Knicks are a huge test because they play through their bigs and attack the foul line, which keeps opposing offenses on the bench.

The Cavs didn’t come ready to play in Game 2, they got outscored in the paint (58-48) and they shot just 5-of-18 from three-point range. I don’t think Cleveland will look that horrendous on offense again, but here are a few adjustments that need to happen if they want to win Game 3.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love Were Non-Factors. Neither player had more than nine points in Game 1 or Game 2, but both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are back home where they are more comfortable.  More importantly, Cleveland gets Donovan Mitchell and James Harden back home. Both players excel at putting pressure on the defense and getting to the foul line. Cleveland has the length and the scoring to be better at getting to the foul line than the Knicks, which should help them get better looks from three-point range.

The Cavaliers struggled mightily from deep against New York (14.6% against Knicks spacing in Game 2), but if Cleveland shoots its average mark from three-point range (34.4%), the Cavs should find more success on offense.

The Knicks thrived on second-chance points and offensive rebounds during their playoff run so far. However, Cleveland counteracts those strengths with two of the best young defenders on the interior in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

Simply put, Cleveland needs to limit New York’s second-chance opportunities or else Julius Randle and Derrick Rose are going to bring the Knicks back into the game whenever they fall behind.

The Cavs have homecourt advantage and they will be desperate to avoid falling into a 3-0 hole against the Knicks. The Knicks have to recreate their same level of shooting and rebounding dominance on the road in Game 3, and that is never easy against a desperate team.

If Cleveland fixes some of the problems on offense that were highlighted in Game 2, starts faster and controls the paint both offensively and defensively, I like their chances to win and cover the game here on Saturday

Jim's Play: 554. Cavaliers (Money Line)  

The biggest thing trending in San Antonio Spurs favor right now is the series shift. San Antonio did its job stealing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, and now the series is tied 1-1 as we head back to the Frost Bank Center. Home floor advantage matters, especially for a young Spurs team looking to feed off the energy of the crowd after splitting the first two games on the road.

San Antonio’s biggest reason to like themselves still starts in Victor Wembanyama. In Game 1, Wembanyama exploded for 41 points and 24 rebounds in San Antonio’s double-overtime victory. Oklahoma City figured some things out defensively in Game 2 and Wemby finished with more reasonable stats, but San Antonio will have opportunities in Game 3 to adjust as well. Expect San Antonio to get Wemby easier looks, move him around the floor more, and make the Thunder defend without grabbing, holding, or putting multiple defenders in the paint.

San Antonio also gets the emotional advantage after Game 2 ended the way it did. There has been plenty of chatter about how Oklahoma City defended Wembanyama and the Spurs’ guards throughout the game, and that narrative can work in San Antonio’s favor if they feel the whistle at home. If Wemby can get to the foul line more frequently and Oklahoma City can’t be as physical with him on the perimeter away from the ball, Spurs’ offense is much easier to manage.

The injury report swings both ways, as Spurs guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are questionable to play in Game 3 while Oklahoma City guard Jalen Williams is also questionable after leaving Game 2 early with a hamstring injury. If Williams is limited or ruled out, that takes one of OKC’s best two-way players off the floor and puts even more pressure on Shai Gilgeous- Alexander to create offense.

San Antonio’s game plan is fairly simple: take care of the basketball, get Wembanyama involved early, limit OKC on the offensive glass, and force the Thunder to play in the half court. If San Antonio can eliminate the live-ball turnovers that led to so many Oklahoma City buckets in Game 2, the Spurs have enough size, shot creation, and home court atmosphere to pull away late.

Jim's Play: 552. Spurs (Money Line)  

Opening up with the adjustment angle as the reason why San Antonio and Oklahoma City UNDER the total feels incredibly logical after Game 1 happened. Sure, the game ended with a final score of 122-115 Spurs in double overtime, but regulation play was nothing like a slugfest track meet. The sky-high total actually owes more to two extended periods than it does two teams running the scoreboard up.

Victor Wembanyama had 41 points and 24 rebounds, but expecting San Antonio to put up numbers like that on the road just two nights later seems like a stretch.

The Thunder should have defensive adjustments ready to go as well. OKC is already down 1-0 in the series and are surely not going to let Wemby be this effective again without some sort of resistance. More paint attention, earlier help, and forcing San Antonio’s role players to beat them is what you can probably expect from Oklahoma City. Slow down possessions, more half-court offense, and limiting early-clock buckets is the usual result.

Adding injury reports into the mix definitely benefits the UNDER crowd too. De’Aaron Fox is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury and may not have 100 percent of his speed back should he play. San Antonio is losing one of their top tempo-pushers and creators downhill if Fox sits or is limited. The Spurs did get stellar Game 1 production from Dylan Harper, but expecting that type of production from a rookie guard in back-to-back road playoff games is inviting turnovers, late-clock shots, and long offensive stretches with no buckets.

Not to mention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at his absolute best when he’s able to control the pace of play and get to his favorite areas of the floor: the midrange where he can draw fouls. OKC is not required to have a wild game to secure a Game 2 victory. They simply need to play with better possession quality, smart shot selection, and avoid unraveling like they did down the stretch in Game 1.

The best way to UNDER hit on Wednesday is straightforward: Oklahoma City makes defensive adjustments to limit San Antonio’s second chance opportunities. The Spurs come back down after an emotionally and possibly physically draining double-overtime win on the road. Both teams operate from the half-court more frequently than not. As long as this game can stay out of overtime, the total has a great chance of hitting.

Jim's Play : 547. Spurs/Thunder UNDER 

Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals begin here on Tuesday night and I'll be looking at the over as my play.  The Knicks have home-court advantage, transition buckets, offensive rebounds and terrific three-point shooting. Cleveland counters with Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and a roster that scored 125 points on the road in Game 7 against Detroit.

New York simply has more ways to score, which is why the OVER is so attractive here. The Knicks have been exceptional shooters this postseason and one of my notes from their matchup breakdown showed they’ve been hitting 40.8% from three in the playoffs. Cleveland hasn’t defended the perimeter all that well either and now they have to worry about New York attacking the paint and hunting offensive rebounds. When the Knicks get second chance points and open threes, watch out.

The Cavaliers can do their damage as well because they aren’t solely relying on Mitchell to score. Harden is another playmaker who can penetrate, attack the basket and get to the foul line. He’s also good at creating open jumpers when the defense collapses late in the shot clock. Cleveland having two players like that matters because the Knicks will surely lock down at times defensively and the Cavs counter with offensive weapons who can create their own points when games slow down.

Injury reports actually favor the over too. OG Anunoby is probable for New York after practicing fully on Friday. When healthy, he’s been one of the best two-way wings in the playoffs averaging 21.4 points on shots beyond 61% FG and 53% 3P. Giving the Knicks another efficient scorer and shooter eases concerns about their offensive ceiling.

Game 1's can be slow-starters but both of these teams have enough offensive threats to get this total over the number. New York gets a hometown bump in Madison Square Garden and Cleveland will bounce in after their confident Game 7 win against the Pistons. Both teams have good enough free-throw and three-point shot upside to finish this game OVER the total.

Jim's Play: 545. Cavaliers/Knicks OVER  

OKC is the better rested team and rightfully deserves to be favored at home, but this line is big enough where San Antonio can cover regardless of the result. Game 1's can have a feeling-out process to them and the Spurs have enough shot creation, size, and confidence to keep the game within the number.

The Spurs roll in confident after dispatching Minnesota in six games, highlighted by a blowout 139-109 victory on the road in Game 6. Victor Wembanyama dominated that closeout game, De’Aaron Fox contributed 21 points and San Antonio proved they can score on the road efficiently during the playoffs. That will matter, as this Spurs team is not going to be awestruck by this stage.

Oklahoma City has a budding star of their own in Chet Holmgren, but Wemby presents a unique challenge with his size, rim pressure, shot blocking, and passing ability. If Wembanyama is a monster on the defensive end and forces Oklahoma City to settle for jump shots, the Spurs should be able to slow down OKC’s transition game and force the Thunder into a half-court style game.

San Antonio’s guard play also provides a clear cover value. Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper have blossomed into a pesky attacking trio and they combined for 68 points and 19 assists in San Antonio’s Game 6 massacre of Minnesota. Fox, Castle and Harper can attack the rim, earn free throws and take offensive creation off Wembanyama’s plate.

San Antonio will obviously need to be healthy for this to come to fruition, as Fox and Luke Kornet are currently listed as questionable. Fox has been playing on the ankle injury though and is still producing at an elite level, so he should be good to go barring a setback. Oklahoma City also gets back Jalen Williams, which is great news for the Thunder, but I could see Game 1 slowing that guy down after coming off a hamstring injury and missing several weeks.

The biggest thing the Thunder do well is create turnovers and turn them into easy baskets. San Antonio cannot beat itself with live-ball turnovers and sucky defense or else OKC will blow them out of the gym. If the Spurs take care of the ball and defend the heck out of this game, they have enough size and scoring punch to hang tight for a full 4 quarters. San Antonio was also 4-1 away from home in the playoffs heading into this series, so we know this team can perform on the road.

Jim's Play: 542. San Antonio Spurs

Sunday’s Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons Game 7 pits two extreme circumstances that favor UNDER the total.

It’s Game 7, which in the playoffs usually means tight checking all around. Sunday’s total is hovering around 206.5 which isn’t extremely high but still requires two relatively clean offensive performances while playing with the season on the line.

Game 6 ended 115-94 for a total of 209 but that total was inflated thanks to Detroit pulling away late while Cleveland’s offense ground to a halt. Cleveland only scored 94 points on Sunday and Donovan Mitchell was miserable throughout the game. If Cleveland can’t consistently score on the road in Game 7, the under is going to have a clear path even if Detroit takes care of business.

Slowing the game down is Cleveland’s best chance to win or cover. The Cavaliers aren’t going to beat Detroit running with them. Cleveland needs to limit Cade Cunningham, limit Detroit on the defensive glass and force Detroit to score against a prepared defense.

Both Mitchell and James Harden can create their own shots but Cleveland is going to be more likely to play with possession in a Game 7 than try to simply chuck it up. Preventing turnovers like we saw in Game 6 also favors a lower-possession game.

Detroit’s injury report also favors the under in a small way. Kevin Huerter, Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert are all questionable according to some reports while other reports have them listed as iffy. All three players are perimeter players that can open up the floor for Detroit. If Detroit is missing one or multiple catch-and-shoot threats, that will allow Cleveland to focus on locking down Cunningham while he creates late in the clock.

Cleveland should set the tone early. If the game is tight and neither team gets easy buckets in the transition game, both teams will shorten their rotations and play more defense. Detroit will definitely try to feed off the home crowd but Cleveland has enough playoff veterans to slow things down and play a possession-by-possession game.

Jim's Play: 529. Cavaliers/Pistons UNDER 

The number makes the Cavaliers a play against the Pistons in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. This series is tied at 3-3, and Cleveland has already proven they can win in Detroit, taking Game 5 on the road 117-113. 

Late-game shot-making is where Cleveland has the biggest advantage. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden give the Cavs two veteran guards who can create offense when the game comes out of the flow, and Game 7s are usually decided by half-court execution. Detroit has home floor and momentum after a 115-94 Game 6 victory, but Cleveland’s recipe for covering isn’t complex: Avoid long droughts, limit turnovers, and let Mitchell attack mismatches late. 

Don’t forget the bounce-back angle, either. Cleveland was bad in Game 6, particularly in the second half, but blowouts like that have a tendency to reset the market too much. The Cavaliers already proved they could respond to adversity in this series, getting down 0-2 before winning three straight to take the series lead. This isn’t a fragile team, and the Cavs have enough playoff-tested scorers to right the ship after one poor performance.

Detroit’s injury report doesn’t exactly hurt Cleveland, either. Larry Nance Jr. is doubtful to play with an illness, but he’s barely a factor in the Cavs’ offense. The Pistons have more rotation questions with Duncan Robinson, Kevin Huerter and Caris LeVert all questionable to play. Detroit needs their shooters and secondary creators available if the Pistons want to consistently create separation for more than one or two possessions. 

If Cleveland makes Cade Cunningham work for everything and forces Detroit’s supporting cast to make pressure shots, the Cavs cover. Detroit is good enough to win this game — they wouldn’t be in position to have a Game 7 if they weren’t — but asking them to execute on offense by multiple possessions against Mitchell and Harden is a tall ask.

Jim's Play: 529. Cavaliers

I like the OVER here tonight in Minnesota. Games 2,3,4 and 5 all reportedly finished OVER 218.5, posting at least 223 total points. Game 1 was the only outlier with both teams playing at a grinder’s pace.

San Antonio’s offense has figured things out. They attacked the rim in Game 5 and ended up scoring 68 points in the paint, which is huge against a Minnesota team that is centered around size and rim protection. If Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle continue to get downhill and creating paint opportunities, the Spurs could be in the 110s again.

Minnesota reaching the over has a lot to do with desperation. They are at home in the Target Center with their backs against the wall. They cannot afford to play slow and hope they win a points race against San Antonio. They need Anthony Edwards to attack early, they need Julius Randle to make an impact as a secondary scorer, and they need someone like Naz Reid or Jaden McDaniels to make shots when the Spurs load up on Edwards. Minnesota is likely to come out reckless and that often leads to more fastbreak opportunities, more aggressive playmaking and more foul shots in clutch moments if the game is close late.

Few key players are currently ruled out for either team. San Antonio is without David Jones Garcia and Minnesota will be without Donte DiVincenzo once again, but both teams’ starters and main offensive options are available. This matters because both teams have been able to score heavily regardless of injuries.

Best over scenario: Spurs continue to score in the paint, Wolves match them with fast paced offense and free throws push the fourth quarter total higher. Line leans OVER based on series trend, Spurs’ efficiency in the paint and Wolves’ motivation to not go home defeated.

Jim's Play : 525. Spurs/Twolves OVER 

First reason the Pistons/Cavaliers game Friday hits the OVER is the total itself. The number opened around 209.5 to 210 and that is NOT big enough for a series that has started leaning into its groove offensively. Game 5 was 117-113 in OT, but even before overtime Detroit and Cleveland were scoring enough to get into the 200s.

Cleveland’s offense has gotten into much better rhythm after falling into an 0-2 hole in the series. They have now won 3 straight games and the main reason is Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have figured out how to run the half-court. Harden hit for 30 on Friday and Mitchell continues to be that downhill scorer who forces Detroit into fouls, rotations and late closeouts. When Cleveland’s 2 lead guards are both creating, the Cavs are going to be hard to keep out of the 110s.

Detroit is capable of hitting their number as well. Cunningham hit for 39 points and they’ll have plenty of motivation playing with their season on the line. Playing with that much motivation usually leads to starter’s playing heavy minutes, attacking the rim with more urgency and little patience if they fall behind. Detroit has enough shot creators in Cunningham, Tobias Harris and the supporting guards to pressure Cleveland’s defense, especially if they’re playing with a lead late.

Injury report leans towards offense as well. Cleveland is coming in with zero players on their injury report, which means their full offensive rotation will be available. Detroit is hinting at possible absences with Kevin Huerter, Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, but their lead scorer and primary shot creator will be available as Cade Cunningham is still in the lineup and Detroit’s gotten enough offense from their core to keep games competitive.

Late game script plays a factor too. Cleveland is looking to close it out at home and Detroit is playing with the “do or die” mentality of needing a Game 7. That usually lends itself to an OVER script. Both teams will be aggressive late if the game is close and late fouls will add to the total. If Cleveland gets up by 8+ Detroit will have to force a fast pace to lengthen the game out.

The under looked like a great play to begin the series when the games were slower and more physical. But as this series has progressed Cleveland’s offense has gotten better and Detroit still has Cade Cunningham playing like a star. The total is low enough where even a 108-104 type game lands right around that number.

Jim's Play: 523. Pistons/Cavs OVER

Opening the case for Detroit begins with home court. The series stands tied at 2-2, so Game 5 returns to Detroit where the Pistons have successfully covered the floor twice in this series. The Pistons also should enjoy a significant bounce-back factor heading into Game 5. Detroit fell in Cleveland 112-103, but that contest swung on a massive second-half outburst by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers wing scored 43 points on 39 points after the break. Cleveland also got a major free-throw discrepancy, as Mitchell alone attempted more free throws than the entire Pistons team. Expecting that to happen again, especially at Little Caesars Arena, would be folly.

Arguably the biggest reason to back Detroit on Wednesday though is Cade Cunningham. Detroit has relied on their rookie all postseason and at home I trust him to control the tempo of this game. Get downhill, attack the rim, make Cleveland’s guards work, and allow Detroit’s other weapons to beat you.

Detroit does not need to blow Cleveland out to cover the spread. The Pistons merely need to win the possession game, avoid fouling, and limit the Cavs easy transition baskets.

Yes the Cavaliers still have Donovan Mitchell and he has been incredible, but Cleveland has been forcing him to do way too much for far too long. Mitchell has scored over 27.5 points in each of the last three games and against Detroit’s defense Cleveland has been far too Mitchell-heavy offensively. Detroit making him work for his shots and getting contributions from elsewhere on the road gives them the better cover profile.

We are set for the swing game of the series and Detroit has the favorable setup. Home floor, coming off a disappointing loss in which they were blown out, a short spread, and a defensive identity that attacks the basket without fouling and forcing opponents into jumpers. If Cunningham can dictate pace and Detroit keeps Mitchell away from the charity stripe, Detroit should cover with a nice chance to win outright as well.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

My Pistons-Cavaliers play on the total Monday begins with the series trend. Game 2 finished 107-97 and stayed mostly in half-court, grind-it-out playoff mode. That’s the type of tempo we should see again in Cleveland on Monday.

Detroit has taken control of the series 2-0, so Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation. And when teams get that way, they often play tighter on defense before they open up on offense.

Another reason I like Cleveland to tighten up: their offense has been streaky. Donovan Mitchell can score at will, but the Cavs have not had consistent creation outside of him. James Harden shot just 3-for-13 from the floor with four turnovers in Game 2. He has just three more made field goals than turnovers through two games. If Cleveland struggles to manufacture clean looks in the half court from Harden, it puts too much pressure on Mitchell and helps the under.

Don’t forget Detroit is not completely healthy either. Both Kevin Huerter and Caris LeVert are questionable to play on Monday, and their statuses are notable because both impact Detroit’s spacing and depth at the guard position. Huerter has yet to suit up for a game this semifinal, while LeVert is nursing a heel injury. If either player is sidelined or limited, it could force Detroit to lean even more on Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris and slow down half-court offense.

Finally, we’re in the playoffs now. Cleveland has no choice but to come out with a physical defense Monday. The Cavs cannot fall behind 3-0, so they will be aggressive at the point of attack, look to run more deliberate offense, and do everything they can to prevent Detroit from getting out in transition. Detroit has done a solid job of closing games offensively, but they are not a team that needs to press and get up thousands of shots to win games. Cade Cunningham can control the game’s tempo, get his driver anywhere he wants on the floor, and run down the clock.

Both teams should aim to pound the ball inside and attack the basket. Defenses are probably going to play tighter than the public wants to believe they will, leading to long scoring droughts for both teams. If Cleveland defends better at home and Detroit’s role players struggle away from their home building like they usually do, I like the chance to stay under.

Jim's Play: 509. Pistons / Cavaliers UNDER  

The first reason I think New York beats Philadelphia on Sunday is because of the series itself. The Knicks lead 3-0 after another Game 3 win at Philadelphia, 108-94, and they’ve been the tougher, deeper, more balanced and connected team through the first three games. Jalen Brunson had another stellar performance with 33 points and nine assists, and New York kept answering every Philadelphia surge.

Depth and toughness have been New York’s biggest advantages through three games. The Knicks have won the battle on the glass and physically they’ve been tougher. New York also hasn’t had everything go perfectly to win games. OG Anunoby sat out Game 3 with a hamstring strain, but New York still won by 14 on Philly’s home floor. Landry Shamet gave New York a solid lift off the bench and Miles McBride stepped up and helped eat minutes while still continuing to receive solid two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart.

Brunson is why I think New York can close this series now, too. Philly has really not had an answer for him when the game is on the line, and when Brunson gets downhill it forces the Sixers into rotation after rotation defensively. That leads to offensive rebounds, corner threes and easy buckets for the Knicks’ role players. When playing a closeout game, the team with the best half-court creator typically has the advantage, and New York is the team with the best half-court creator.

Philadelphia’s biggest problem is they still do not have Joel Embiid fully right. Embiid came back for Game 3 after sitting out Game 2, but he’s still dealing with hip and ankle problems and we’ve seen his mobility affected. He’s probable for Game 4, but if Embiid can’t dominate the glass and protect the rim like he usually does the Sixers are forced to rely on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George creating offense and making shots. We’ve seen how well that formula can work against this Knicks team.

I really think the Knicks just need to avoid falling into that dreaded closeout-game-on-the-road slow start. If New York can match Philly’s energy early on, stay competitive on the boards and let Brunson run the late-clock offense they should cruise. The Sixers will fight you for maybe a half, but New York’s defense, depth and late-game execution should be enough to wear Philly down.

Jim's Play: 505. Knicks

San Antonio is visiting Minnesota on Friday, May 8 for Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Currently,  The Timberwolves are getting multiple possessions at home in this series that is tied at 1-1. Minnesota has reasons to bounce back and Cover at home while San Antonio will struggle to hit the number multiple times.

Minnesota is a huge bounce-back spot play. The Timberwolves got dominated 133-95 in Game 2, but blowouts in the playoffs can open value on the team that got blown out. Minnesota had 22 turnovers, were manhandled in transition and San Antonio shot 41% from three. All things that can easily bounce back at home where Minnesota’s role players feel comfortable playing and the crowd can create defensive energy.

Minnesota’s defense should still be good enough to keep this game close to the number. Minnesota has the length and physicality to make life harder on Victor Wembanyama and DeAaron Fox than they did in Game 2. Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Minnesota’s frontcourt need to be more physical on the glass and more disciplined when the Spurs get the ball in transition. Minnesota can live with Spurs shooting nights if they force them into half-court basketball.

The injury report is not great with Anthony Edwards questionable, Ayo Dosunmu questionable and Donte DiVincenzo out, but the line already has some of that baked in. Minnesota will have their star shot-maker if Edwards is able to play and they can easily win this game outright. If Edwards is limited or cannot play, the Wolves can still cover by locking in defensively, boxing the Spurs out on the glass and forcing San Antonio to play in a half-court setting. San Antonio has their full roster and are dangerous, but expecting them to win by 5+ points on the road after they had everything go their way in Game 2 is asking a lot.

If Minnesota can avoid another slow start filled with turnovers, this has Cover value. If the Wolves take care of the basketball, clean up their transition defense and get a semi-average shooting night at home, I feel like this will be a close game down the stretch. Minnesota is getting enough points to Cover, and if Edwards is ruled active and can play, they can win this game outright.

Jim's Play: 574. Wolves  

The Philadelphia 76ers to win and cover Friday night is first and foremost built on desperation. Philadelphia enters Game 3 down 0-2 in the series knowing that this is essentially a must-win situation at home. Nobody wants to go down 3-0 in any series, let alone the playoffs, and the Sixers should be playing with the highest of energies now that we head to Philadelphia. Not to mention, the market has shifted enough to put this game into winnable territory with Philadelphia as a small favorite. 

Philadelphia largely showed that progression in Game 2 already. They were getting destroyed in Game 1 before showing up ready to play Wednesday and pushing the Knicks in a 108-102 loss. This tells me the series is tightening up. Philadelphia will not need a complete reinvention to win this game. They need better possessions, fewer turnovers and a better finish down the stretch. New York is holding Philadelphia to 37 turnovers through two games and scoring 48 points off of those turnovers, so if Philly can take care of the ball, they will be in great position to win the game.

Speaking of protection, the injury report opens a real door for Philadelphia here as well. Joel Embiid is questionable to play with both an ankle issue and a hip issue. Obviously if Embiid plays this game takes a complete 180, but even a limited Embiid helps change things defensively for New York. Embiid in the starting lineup forces New York to play defense in the paint differently, puts pressure on Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns defensively and opens things up for Tyrese Maxey and Philadelphia’s shooters. The Knicks also have injury concerns of their own, as OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are both questionable to play in Game 3. Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring strain, while Hart has a thumb injury. OG has been huge for New York this postseason averaging over 21 points per game, so any hiccups there would damage the Knicks on offense and defense.

There are a lot of factors that play into this, but everything starts with Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia. Maxey was forced to do too much in Game 2 and Philadelphia understandably ran out of steam late, but being at home should help the Sixers find a more balanced attack. Maxey can create off the dribble against Jalen Brunson and the rest of New York’s guards while George and Oubre will need to provide enough offense from deep to prevent the Knicks from doubling Maxey every chance they get. Even a slight bump from Philadelphia’s bench would go a long way in this game.

Give New York credit, they have played well enough to be up 2-0. But I feel like this is about as classic of a series-shift spot as you can get. The Knicks took care of business at home, but Philadelphia gets homecourt advantage now in terms of the crowd, urgency and adjustments. Philadelphia was really close in Game 2 despite shooting themselves in the foot several times. With better ball protection, more frequent trips to the foul line and the potential addition of Embiid, the Sixers have everything they need to cover the short number and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 572. 76ers 

Our Cavaliers vs Pistons NBA Finals pick starts with the number. Detroit is a small home favorite here on Thursday, which gives Cleveland enough points to cover the spread in a game that likely comes down to one possession like any playoff game would. 

I like Cleveland to cover and possibly win outright here in game 2.  Game 1 was very fixable for them. Cleveland lost by 10, but they coughed up the ball 19 times and Detroit turned those turnovers into dominance of the game. This is adjustment No. 1 if it happens at all. If Cleveland simply takes better care of the ball, gets into their sets before Detroit can trap the ballhandler, and stops giving the Pistons easy transition buckets, we see this game tightening up in a hurry. Cleveland still shot 45% from the field and nearly 37% from three in Game 1, so this wasn’t a game where they completely lacked answers offensively.

Free-throws are another reason to like Cleveland on Thursday. Detroit shot 19 more freebies than Cleveland in Game 1 and that swing typically doesn’t happen twice in a series. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden both need to attack the paint more, and Evan Mobley needs early touches around the rim to collapse Detroit’s frontline. If Cleveland attacks the free-throw line at a higher rate and eliminates empty possessions, the Cavs have enough offense to not only cover the number, but come away with the win outright.

That brings us to the other half of the upset equation: Cleveland’s defense. Cade Cunningham and the Pistons offense were clicking in Game 1, but the Cavs have enough talent to improve upon those numbers. Mitchell can keep pace with anyone shooting the ball late, Mobley and Jarrett Allen provide rim protection, and Max Strus is a floor spacer who can change momentum by knocking down a couple of timely triples. Detroit was money from downtown (38.5%) in Game 1 and if that shooting regresses at all, Cleveland has a chance to control the game.

Lastly, there’s a desperation factor at play here. Dropping down 0-2 before heading back to Cleveland would doom this Cavs team, so you have to expect their best effort on Thursday. We’re not going to go dumpster diving on Detroit at home, but they’ve played one game and now the Pistons are being tasked with proving Game 1 wasn’t a fluke against a motivated opponent. Cleveland wants it more at this point, has homecourt advantage with a chance to close games late, and should only need a better offensive performance to win this game.

Jim's Play: 567. Cavaliers 

Right off the bat, let’s start with this spread Wednesday night being inflated. New York is laying too many points for Game 2 and that is a big price to ask after a Game 1 blowout. The Knicks annihilated Philly 137-98 in game one, but that margin of victory should create some line value in tonight's game.

The Sixers don’t even need to win to cover this bet. Philadelphia just needs to be more competitive than they were in game one, and I do believe there is a serious bounce-back setup after getting blown out on national TV.

Philadelphia came into this game tired. They played a tough first-round series and had less than 48 hours to rest before Game 1 against New York after Game 7 against Boston. You could see it in their legs, their defense rotations, and their ability to take care of the ball. Philly had 19 turnovers which led to 25 points for the Knicks. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson dropped 35 on them early and 27 of those came in the first half.

Those are things you can fix. Philly will have a full day to recover, watch game film and come up with a Game 2 gameplan. Expect this team to look much sharper. 

Another reason I like Philadelphia keeping this one closer than the points implies is star power. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George were not at their best and it is hard to see that trio being quiet again. Especially when Philadelphia’s injury report is completely empty going into Game 2.

It matters because the Sixers’ path to covering this spread leans heavily on their top-end talent carrying more of the scoring load and getting to the foul line. If Embiid can attack Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson in the paint, New York’s frontcourt fouling becomes a huge swing factor.

It’s the playoffs. Series are about adjustments and Nurse is a smart enough coach to switch coverages, slow Brunson’s rhythm down and force Maxey into tough attacking positions.

I believe this game is about Philadelphia’s pride at this point. After losing by 39 points, you have to think they’ll come out with better energy, a tougher defensive physicality and a more game-plan oriented approach on offense. I do still think New York wins this game at home but betting the Knicks to cover a high number against a healthy and desperate 76ers team feels dangerous.

Jim's Play: 561. 76ers 

I'll be taking the small points tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers in their opening 2nd round game against the Detroit Pistons. For starters, we’ll look at the point spread number itself. Detroit sits on a small number at home, which gives Cleveland leeway to lose by two and still cover. That might not sound like much, but in a second-round Game 1 between two teams that each just played seven games, any cushion is huge.

Perhaps the biggest advantage Cleveland holds entering Tuesday is the fact they’ve been here before. Sure, Detroit won more games during the regular season (60-22), but they’re still a relatively inexperienced team being asked to come into Game 1 as favorites in the playoffs. Cleveland returns with Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and a core that has experienced multiple playoff runs together. These Cavs just finished grinding through seven games with the Toronto Raptors, which is exactly the type of win that can help focus a team going into Round 2.

Mobley and Allen should also help Cleveland limit Detroit on the glass. Both players give Cleveland a legitimate size advantage inside to at least slow down Detroit’s Jalen Duren, while Mitchell is the type of shot-maker Cleveland can turn to when the game slows down late. This will come down to execution in the half court, and Cleveland has enough playmakers to prevent themselves from getting into too many scoring droughts.

Detroit is still a formidable foe, especially at The Palace. This team can hang with anyone on a given night, but the Pistons aren’t catching the Cavs at their worst. Cleveland’s injury report is empty heading into Game 1, while Detroit lists Kevin Huerter as questionable with a thigh/adductor strain. Huerter may very well play, but Detroit losing a healthy guard hurts their already-guard depleted lineup.

Huerter being out would limit Detroit’s already-limited perimeter attack, which they’re going to need if they want to create separation from Cleveland. If the Cavs can stay in this game through three quarters, the home crowd may not be enough for Detroit to create late. Mitchell can create his own shot against any defense, and Cleveland has the frontcourt defenders to make life tough for everyone else.

Give Cleveland some room early, and the Cavs have every chance to make this a physical, low-scoring affair down the stretch and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 555. Cavaliers 

The under on San Antonio and Minnesota’s Game 1 total has a nice profile because the number is parked higher than what my own numbers came in this game. That’s a tall number for a playoff opener featuring an injury-laden Minnesota team and a Spurs squad built on principles like limiting opponents’ transition chances and defending the rim. 

I also like the under because Minnesota comes into this one hobbled. Anthony Edwards is questionable with a knee injury while backup point guard Ayo Dosunmu is also questionable, and other game preview articles have pointed out Donte DiVincenzo will miss this game. If Edwards sits or even plays limited minutes, Minnesota’s ability to create shots and score in transition takes a huge hit, which is conducive to a lower playoff total.

The anticipated style of play favors the under, too. This series will likely be won and lost on the defensive end, with San Antonio counting on its top defender Victor Wembanyama to protect the rim while switching wherever he lines up on defense. San Antonio perimeter defenders like Stephon Castle will help Wembayama lock down driving lanes, while Minnesota’s best weapons to slow San Antonio’s attack are themselves defensive-minded players like Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Game flow that allows each team to mostly succeed by playing through the defense instead of pushing the pace supports a low opener.

Game 1's tend to open slower than their Game 2 counterparts as teams feel each other out. That general playoff-angle reason to consider the under is amplified here by Minnesota’s injuries and overall exhaustion coming off a grind-it-out series against Denver. Minnesota pushed itself immensely to beat Denver in seven, while San Antonio gets to come in rested and ready to defend. The Spurs might dictate pace in Game 1, forcing the Wolves to choose their spots and spend possessions trying to simply stay in games instead of trading offense.

When you combine those angles, the case for the under is straightforward: The number is high, Minnesota might be without or playing without its best offensive player, and both teams want to play in the half court and make their opponent execute offense. If Minnesota is at less than full strength and San Antonio dictates tempo like its matchup suggests it should, I think Timberwolves-Spurs stays under the number on Monday.

Jim's Play: 553. Timberwolves / Spurs UNDER

Game 7 is always exciting in the NBA and today's Magic vs Pistons elimination game I'll be taking the UNDER. Why? For starters, this Game 7 is sitting at an extremely low total of and we’ve already seen this series go there. Orlando’s Game 6 meltdown finished with a total of just 172 after the Magic scored 19 points in the second half and missed an unthinkable 23 straight shots during the collapse. When things get that close and ugly late in a series, history suggests the trend continues with another grind-it-out defensive game in Game 7.

If that wasn’t enough, Orlando’s offense is likely to be even more limited without Franz Wagner, who will miss Game 7 with a calf strain. Wagner averaged 20.6 points per game during the regular season and 16.8 points per game during these playoffs. That’s a lot of offense and secondary playmaking to lose for a road team in a winner-take-all game.

Lastly, there’s a basic series angle at work with the under simply because everyone’s saying it: coverage from this series has harped on how old school and grind-it-out the Pistons-Magic games have been, and even same-day betting content is saying “more defense” is the expectation headed into Game 7. Throw in Orlando being short-handed, Detroit playing at home, and both teams knowing a quarter-full of effort could end their season, and you have all the makings of a game where possessions will be cherished and every trip down the floor in the half-court matters.

Jim's Play: 545. Magic / Pistons UNDER 

Houston boasts pretty strong betting odds Friday because they’ve flipped the script on this series with two consecutive eliminations wins. The Rockets won Game 5 in Los Angeles 99-93 to follow up their Game 4 comeback, narrow the Lakers’ series lead to 3-2 and bring Game 6 back to Houston with momentum.

A lot of that momentum comes from Houston’s defensive identity it has established without Durant. The Rockets held the Lakers to just 93 points on Monday while getting 22 points from Jabari Smith Jr., 18 from Tari Eason and a near triple-double from Alperen Sengun, and Houston’s defensive play and poise down the stretch. If they can again make this a physical, half-court battle, that’s clearly the recipe for an outright win at home.

Injuries also play into the narrative, though not in a manner that totally deflates Houston’s argument. The Rockets will be without Kevin Durant for Game 6 after suffering a bone bruise on his left ankle in Game 5, but the Lakers will be without Luka Doncic and didn’t have Austin Reaves starting in Game 5 because of his oblique problem. Put simply, Houston is showing it can win this game even if they’re missing players.

There’s even a number argument for the money line play too.  Nothing is guaranteed, but it does illustrate what we are currently looking at: Houston playing at home while playing better over the last two games and now sitting in the better spot situationally.

Essentially, the lean is straightforward: Houston has momentum, a home floor and a defensive game plan that’s already worked twice in a row. Bring that same aggression and focus they had in Game 5 and they’ve got a very good chance to even this series and send this to a Game 7.

Jim's Play: 524. Rockets Money Line 

Toronto covers Friday for multiple reasons. First off, Toronto has every reason to believe it can cover because it’s playing on its home floor in an elimination game. Plus, the number is large enough where the Raptors would still win the bet if Cleveland wins outright.

As it stands, the series is tied up at 3-2 Cleveland after the Cavs came back to win Game 5 125-120. Toronto is back in action with desperation and the Raptors have home-court advantage for Game 6, where crowds historically help underdogs stay in games.

Toronto covers because they were already good enough to cover throughout most of Game 5 then just let it slip away late. Toronto had leads of 12-plus points multiple times and even led 74-67 at halftime before Cleveland mounted its second-half comeback. For a spread bet, that matters because it showed Toronto wasn’t totally overmatched. The Raptors have already demonstrated they can create the script it needs to win.

An injury angle also exists to the Raptors’ benefit, surprisingly enough, even though Toronto is already shorthanded. Guards Immanuel Quickley went down in Game 5 and will miss the remainder of the series, which is obviously not ideal. However, Cleveland basically had to overcome Toronto by leaning on a fourth-quarter explosion from Dennis Schroder to steal Game 5, and Toronto was able to produce from RJ Barrett and Ja’Kobe Walter.

Couple that with some recent reporting suggesting Brandon Ingram is doubtful for Game 6 after leaving Game 5 due to an injury to his heel and Toronto’s chances to cover start looking even better.

Finally, there’s always a simple spot argument: Cleveland is tasked with closing on the road, and those games tend to tighten up. Cleveland might be the better team overall, but Toronto showed multiple times in this series that its defense, physicality and home crowd can make games ugly enough to where they stay within the number. If Toronto can avoid getting into a long second-half funk like it did on Wednesday, covering feels like a reasonable outcome on Friday night.

Jim's Play: 522. Raptors 

Orlando has plenty of reason to hit the board on Friday as we’re looking at a home elimination game with the spread staying in buyable territory. Pistons at Magic is Friday night’s game on May 1 and  Detroit is the road favorite while Orlando is shown as the home team with Franz Wagner out and Jonathan Isaac questionable. Detroit is no health beacon itself as both Kevin Huerter and Tobias Harris are also questionable.

One reason to expect Orlando to beat the number is that they’ve already proven they can make this series ugly and low scoring enough to hit against the spread. The Magic won Game 4, 94-88, on the back of 20 Detroit turnovers and  the Pistons didn’t make a field goal over the final five minutes until a buzzer beater went off. If the Pistons struggle to score late in games against Orlando’s defense then they’ll likely have issues keeping this one within the spread.

Speaking of low scoring games, there’s also a healthy bounce-back play regardless of Detroit winning Game 5. The Pistons won that one 116-109 but  Orlando still scored 45 points from Paolo Banchero and made a serious fourth quarter rally before falling. That’s important because the final score wasn’t lopsided at all and shows the Magic can still produce enough offense to keep things close even if Detroit has a massive night from Cade Cunningham.

Finally, covering just because of game flow is always a thing. Detroit has won to extend the series, but now they’ll have to go back on the road to finish things off and cover spots can often be tighter than expected on that end. Orlando showed earlier in the series that they could protect home court with a 113-105 win in Game 3 followed by the Game 4 win mentioned above. Now the Magic are back home with everything to play for so it sets up better as a grind rather than blowout.

Orlando hosts again, won twice at home already in this series, and its defensive nature allows it to keep games close. If the Magic forces turnovers again and Banchero cooks again they have every chance to cover Friday’s game.

Jim's Play: 526. Magic 

Cleveland has some strong reasons to play through Wednesday and cover as favorites in Game 5. This is the quintessential home Game 5 bounce-back opportunity in a series that’s currently tied 2-2, and the public is still betting on the Cavs as the better team ahead of Wednesday. 

Speaking of health and injuries, Cleveland happens to also have a huge advantage there coming into Game 5. The Cavs have zero players on their injury report heading into Game 5, while Toronto is again slated to be without Immanuel Quickley due to his hamstring injury. When the spread is this big, missing a starting guard and capable shot creator matters — especially in a road environment during a swing game.

Finally, there’s some juice to be had from simply how Game 5 ended for the Cavs compared to how Toronto won Games 3 and 4. Toronto knotted up the series with wins of 126-104 and 93-89 in Games 3 and 4, respectively. However, Cleveland actually won Games 1 and 2 by larger margins at home before the series went north of the border. That feels important because it shows Cleveland has already played a home game that was good enough to cover this number; they just need to duplicate that performance now that they’re back in Cleveland for Game 5.

On a basketball level, the best reason I like Cleveland to cover is actually how Toronto’s adjustment has manifested itself throughout Games 3 and 4. Reports coming out of this series have said the Raptors have slowed down Cleveland’s pick-and-roll attack by switching off James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, forcing the Cavs into tougher perimeter shots and contributing to Cleveland’s 25% three-point shooting output in Game 4. That can sound scary if you’re a Cavs fan, but it actually helps Cleveland coming into Game 5. They know exactly what Toronto has done to slow them down, and their solution is on full display: better ballhandling to avoid traps, improved spacing, and less stagnant offense. Teams often make their best tactical adjustments in the first game back at home after a loss on the road.

Between the factors above, the case for Cleveland to cover Wednesday is fairly simple: Cleveland is healthier than Toronto, they’re back in Cleveland playing in front of their home crowd, they’ve already played a game this series that was good enough to cover this number, and now they get a Game 5 where Toronto is still without Quickley. If Cleveland just plays a cleaner game on the offensive end and resembles their home-court team from earlier in the series, there’s a very legitimate path to hitting this spread on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 506. Cavaliers

Atlanta legitimately has a case to win here on Tuesday because we already saw the Hawks go toe-to-toe with New York in key moments throughout this series. It’s tied 2-2, and Atlanta won both games by one point. That tells you everything you need to know about whether or not the Hawks can execute down late — they already have against this team.

Yes, the Knicks are back home, but this series hasn’t exactly resembled your average 3-vs-6 affair.

What’s hurt New York throughout this series has been Atlanta’s perimeter pressure and guard play, and the Knicks still have yet to crack that code. Coverage of the series has largely centered around how New York got carved up at times defensively by Atlanta’s coverage schemes on Jalen Brunson. Traps. Ball-denial. Pushing him off the rhythm he likes to play his best basketball at. All of it came together for Atlanta at times to force Brunson into inefficient stretches and turnovers. Even reporting on the Knicks side said as much, pointing out Brunson is shooting just 37.2% through four games and how the Hawks defenders have made him work. If Atlanta can continue to force Brunson into giving up the ball, it gives the Hawks another opportunity to slow tempo down again.

Atlanta also enters this game possessing a legitimate confidence edge after we already saw them win in this building twice. Atlanta pushed New York throughout the entire series, and while Game 4 was a 114-98 Knicks win, New York was desperately searching for answers down 2-1 while facing elimination. Flip the script. We’re back at 2-2 in Game 5 now, and games like these often become about who’s more poised rather than who’s more talented. Atlanta proved it can win in crunch time against this Knicks team already.

Put simply: Atlanta’s best path to winning is what we’ve already seen for most of this series. Crowd Brunson, force New York’s offense to rely on one guy creating too much, and get another steady performance from their own backcourt late. If the Hawks can make this another close game in the fourth, they’ve already proven twice they can win the biggest possessions. And that’s why Atlanta is very much alive to win in New York on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 569. Hawks

The Lakers should cover as the spread is still providing value while LA continues to control this series. The Lakers winning this best-of-seven 3-0 with victories of 107-98, 101-94, and 112-108 in OT. The point spread matters because Los Angeles doesn’t need to win big to cash, just continue doing what it has done three times in a row already.

Taking the Lakers against the number works for me because they’ve been the more consistent team in late-game situations so far. Houston coughed up a six-point lead with 34.4 seconds remaining in Game 3 before eventually losing in OT, highlighting once again that the Rockets have struggled to close out games cleanly when the playoffs are on the line. Favorites that are laying more than four points should be trusted more than the public when they keep making boneheaded late mistakes like that.

The injury report plays into Los Angeles favor as well. Houston guard Kevin Durant is in doubt for Game 4 with a sprained left ankle, and he was reportedly still receiving treatment on Sunday morning and had not been cleared to play. Houston desperately needs KD to return for Game 4 because if he can’t go or is limited again, the Rockets lose one of their best half-court scorers and players to create shots late in the clock.

You can also make a vanilla matchup-and-form argument for the Lakers. Los Angeles went 53-29 during the regular season and has now beaten Houston in three consecutive games this season, doing so twice at home and once on the road. Once team proves it can consistently solve an opponent — particularly with LeBron James running the offense late in games — it becomes that much easier to back that team to keep games within a modest spread number.

Here’s how I see the handicap laying: The Lakers are 3-0 in this series already, Houston is only getting four and a half points, and the Rockets may once again be without Durant while feeling the pressure of possible elimination. Houston can beat the spread if they avoid elimination, but the Lakers have every opportunity to keep Game 4 close enough to cover.

Jim's Play: 557. Lakers

I like the UNDER here on Sunday between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers. Primarily because this series has already shifted to a slower, more physical playoff pace. Boston won Game 3 by eight points, 108-100, and that 208 total stayed well below the common market range for this matchup. Philadelphia won Game 2 by a defense-first 111-97 score as well, so two of the first three games have hit well under a typical playoff total.

Philadelphia’s injury report is a big reason to like the under in Game 4. Joel Embiid is doubtful to play while he continues to recover from his appendectomy, and Kelly Oubre Jr. is also questionable. Losing Embiid hurts the Sixers’ ability to score in the half-court and forces them to generate more offense at the free-throw line. Either change can lead to much more uneven offense against Boston’s defense.

Boston’s health also points to a low-scoring game. The Celtics are coming into Game 4 with as close to a clean bill of health as you’ll ever see, and that matters because a healthy Boston team is typically at its best when it can defend without foul trouble, switch everything defensively, and force opponents into late-clock contested possessions. Boston’s improved execution on both ends of the floor was also highlighted, rather than trying to blow teams out in transition.

Game location is in the under’s favor too. This is Game 4 in Philadelphia with Boston leading the series 2-1, which means all the pressure is on the 76ers to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole. Games in those spots often feature more deliberate offensive possessions, shorter rotations, and more defensive minutes from both teams. Boston has already shown it can win a grind at 108-100, and Philadelphia’s offense might be short-handed again without Embiid, so everything is lining up for another game that stays under the posted number.

Jim's Play: 555. Celtics / 76ers UNDER 

I like the Knicks as one my biggest plays of the NBA Postseason here on Saturday. For starters, this is now a desperation game for New York. The primary issue over their last two losses seemed to be random unexplainable mistakes, not systemic deficiencies. Plus, Game 3 was lost by one point, 109-108, after Game 2 was lost by one point, 107-106. Even though Atlanta leads the series 2-1, this has never felt like a series where the Hawks were just better than the Knicks. This felt like a series where New York continually failed to close out games when they had the chance.

First reason to trust the Knicks is rebounding/size. Something noted in the Game 3 preview was New York had a plus-14 rebounding margin in Game 2, and overall through two games the Knicks seemed to have the physical edge when focused. Rebounding matters on the road because extra possessions and second chances are one of the easiest ways to counteract a rowdy arena. If the Knicks get back to attacking that advantage they should have a clear path to setting the tempo and getting more efficient scoring opportunities.

Reason number two: Jalen Brunson. Despite blowing a lead in Game 3, the Knicks still have the best scorer in crunch time and a lot of criticism following Game 3 was about decision-making and play-calling rather than Atlanta figuring out a way to neutralize him. That’s huge because mistakes in execution tend to have better correctives game-to-game than matchup disadvantages do. If Brunson receives slightly better support from Karl-Anthony Towns and New York avoids playing stagnant down the stretch, they should have enough creation to steal one back in Atlanta.

Bonus reason: motivation. New York came into this series as the favorite but after Thursday’s game momentum is squarely against them with plenty of public analysis dubbing Game 4 as nearly a must-win. The Knicks favored here in Game 4 on the road? That should tell you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers view the Knicks versus Hawks series. They still believe New York is the better team despite Atlanta’s lead. When a team goes into a Game 4 with that kind of playoff-like pressure, they typically play with more urgency than the team that entered already knowing they needed a win.

Put it all together and here’s what you have: The Knicks are down 2-1 in a series where both of their losses were by one possession. They still have the advantage in size and they still have the most reliable closer in the series. New York cleans up their execution and plays with some desperation and they have every reason to trust they can win this game on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 545. Knicks

The under on total points makes sense in large part because this series has already proven to be defensively oriented and grind-heavy in a half-court sense. Game 1 did end with a final score of 112-101, but Game 2 saw both offenses struggle at times compared to that pace, with the teams tied 46-46 at halftime before Detroit opened up steam with a monster third quarter. Orlando’s Game 3 preview explained that games have been more physical and defense-oriented than people realize, while Detroit-centric game preview content mentioned the Pistons would look to “muddy the game” with toughness on transition defense and energy plays instead of trying to play fast and open up a free-flowing offensive game.

The total itself is also sitting in a range that hasn’t really gone down despite modest scoring projections. Considering both teams in this playoff series like to play defense and half-court possessions are likely to matter more and more as the series goes on, that number isn’t particularly low if we can assume some level of controlled pace.

Furthermore, a major reason to like the under is Orlando’s offensive inconsistency. Magic-centric coverage mentioned how overwhelmed Orlando looked early in the second half due to adjustments by Detroit, while Detroit coverage highlighted how the Pistons’ defensive rotations and swarming physicality led to their success. If those elements hold true heading into Game 3, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Orlando fail to create clean looks again for extended periods of time, which would help an under.

Detroit can and probably will keep things under too, as the Pistons actually play their best basketball by defending, rebounding, and capitalizing on selective opportunities rather than trying to run and gun. Coverage on Detroit mentioned Cade Cunningham’s ability to score efficiently, but also explained that Detroit has excelled when games are ugly, physical, and dictated by defense instead of sheer offensive skill. Games like that typically lead to fewer total possessions and longer scoring droughts from both teams.

Considering all of these factors, the bet here is pretty straightforward: we have a tied playoff series, the total is sitting comfortably where we like it,  both teams want to play physical defense, and Orlando has already shown their cards by struggling mightily when Detroit forces them into a grind-it-out game. If Game 3 plays out similarly to how most of this series has gone, Pistons-Magic has a clear path to finish under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 541. Pistons/Magic UNDER

If you want the simplest case for Toronto to cover Thursday, look no further than Game 3 being bet a lot closer than Games 1 and 2. Cleveland is just a slight road favorite. This matters because you do not have to believe Toronto will beat Cleveland over the course of seven games; you just have to believe they will be close enough at home to stay inside one possession.

Venue and urgency are why this play is so intriguing. Cleveland dominated Games 1 and 2 at home by 13 and 10, respectively, but now the series shifts to Toronto down 0-2. Game 3 typically represents the spot of highest urgency for the team trailing in a series, and Cleveland’s own local coverage states that its role players will be leaned on more heavily on the road in Toronto. In a game where the spread is short, those changes can loom larger than the differences in raw talent.

Toronto actually has some underlying stats in its favor, too. Toronto scores 114.6 points per game, just 0.8 fewer than Cleveland allows; Toronto went 33-19 against Eastern Conference opponents; and Toronto went 7-4 in one-possession games. During their last 10 contests, the Raptors averaged 115.8 points scored while allowing 112.4, reinforcing that Toronto has played at a level over their last 10 where they could stay inside a small number.

Toronto might even have more wiggle room to improve upon their game plan than Cleveland does. Cleveland’s Big Three were superb in Game 2, as Donovan Mitchell posted a Game 2-high 30 points and Cleveland’s top nine effectively carried the load for this Cavs team. Cleveland’s bench, however, has struggled to contribute through two games. Cleveland’s local coverage highlighted the need for second unit production in a pivotal series Game 3. If Cleveland’s “bit players” do not perform on the road, expect Cleveland to struggle to clear the short spread in Toronto.

Even injuries could provide Toronto with a path to cover. According to the official NBA injury report, Immanuel Quickley and Ja’Kobe Walter are questionable for Toronto, while Thomas Bryant is questionable for Cleveland. Quickley would give Toronto even a modicum of guard creation, which would improve their half-court offense and late-game shotmaking should this game indeed be close.

If I were going gamecap on this myself, my angle would be similar: Toronto plays at home in a game of desperation in what should be a short number. At that number, they’re at least close enough to consider when you factor in how Toronto has played recently and Cleveland’s supporting cast has yet to prove it can produce on the road.

Jim's Play: 530. Raptors

My play on Thursday is on the Knicks to just win the game. We find ourselves in something of a prototypical bounce-back situation for New York. They squandered Game 2 at home, blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter to fall 107-106, and series are generally tiltted 1-1. Most teams that lose Game 2 coming into Game 3 are just flat-out locked in, particularly when their loss had more to do with late execution than being outplayed for 48 minutes.

Beyond just the normal bounce-back spiel, there’s plenty of reason to like New York on the talent side of things as well. Most of the Game 2 preview coverage noted that the Knicks had a +14 rebounding margin in Game 2. When the Knicks play through their size advantage, they are typically the better team in this series. Couple that with New York simply doing a better job of capitalizing on those additional possessions and avoiding Monday night’s second-half carelessness, and the Knicks should be able to regain control of the series.

Extended coverage of Game 2 also strongly factors into me taking Knicks here as well. New York got too iso-heavy and failed to properly involve Karl-Anthony Towns in the game plan according to most, and Jalen Brunson cooling off offensively is a HUGE talking point heading into Game 3. Both of those things actually help the Knicks’ case for me a bit at the odds, because the solution to those problems are incredibly obvious: move the basketball, get Towns more touches, and let Brunson attack the defense one-on-one without the offense stagnating. If the Knicks clean those things up even a little bit, they should be able to score more efficiently than they did in Game 1.

They also just beat these Hawks in Atlanta fairly recently. Two weeks ago, the Knicks went into Atlanta and won 108-105, snapping the Hawks’ lengthy home winning streak. We know they can win in this building, now it’s just about not coughing up a game they led by double-digits.

All that to say, I like New York fairly easily in this spot. They’ve got reason to be pissed they let Game 2 slip away, they still have advantages on the court, and their offensive woes from Game 2 are easily correctable. If Brunson can find a rhythm early and the Knicks do a better job of feeding Towns and finishing plays, they should win Thursday night in Atlanta.

Jim's Play: 527. Knicks 

Phoenix can cover this huge number simply because the line itself has gotten gigantic. The Suns proved back on April 12 that they are capable of matching up with Oklahoma City, as they won 135-103 at OKC in the regular season finale. A number this high allows Phoenix plenty of space to cash without having to legitimately threaten covering the game.

The safest Suns cover theory might just be regression from Game 1. Oklahoma City exploded Phoenix 119-84, but a large chunk of that came on 19 Suns turnovers that led to 34 Thunder points. The Suns also only shot 34.9% from the field. Those are the sorts of numbers that swing a playoff game by several margins, and even slight improvements in taking care of the ball and making shots will open up this game considerably against a spread this high.

On top of this simple theory, there is some rotation help potentially coming Phoenix’s way. Grayson Allen went through drills Tuesday and was officially listed questionable, giving Suns fans hope that they may receive another shooter/secondary spacer for Game 2. Jordan Goodwin, Allen, and Mark Williams are all game time decisions. At the very least, it looks like Phoenix has a chance to play deeper than they did in Game 1 and even one or two additional playable players can help when you are counting on an underdog to keep it within 17 or 18 points.

Finally, there is game flow to consider. Often times blowout Game 2 favorites just have to see the game to protect control instead of winning by 20 again. Oklahoma City is still far and away the rightful favorite and, but that isn’t the same thing as covering this huge number. If the Suns take better care of the ball, get just a little more from Booker and Green, and do not experience another quarter where the game gets out of hand, there is a very legitimate path for Phoenix to stay within that number.

Jim's Play: 521. Suns 

Minnesota should be able to cash here for several reasons. First off, +6.5 is a reasonable spread, especially in a playoff game where Denver has already been shown to be beatable. 

Game 1 tells us the Timberwolves can keep this close, as they did for much of the first half. Much of the Game 2 preview and Game 1 coverage said the Wolves came out energized and flying around the court, getting up easy baskets and building a lead. Denver eventually took control of the game with a 17-2 run in the third quarter. For anyone wondering if Minnesota can keep Denver within six possessions, Game 1 shows they can do it when they set the tempo and play on the Nuggets’ terms.

Speaking of injuries, Denver is dealing with a few injuries of their own. Nuggets guard Peyton Watson as out with a hamstring injury. The same injuries report lists Anthony Edwards as a game-time decision for Minnesota. He is day to day with a knee injury. Updated injury reports for Game 2 mention both teams are monitoring one player, indicating Denver may not have a significant advantage. Minnesota has a better chance to cover if Edwards plays and is himself because he creates the majority of Minnesota’s offense and is their go-to option late in games.

If Edwards is out or not himself, the Timberwolves will have to gameplan differently, but they should still be able to cover. Game 2 previews noted how Minnesota hurt Denver by pushing the pace, but then allowed the game to slow down after the first quarter. Minnesota struggled to score and stopped rotating defensively with as much urgency as they did in the first quarter. The gameplan is simple for Minnesota: Just play like they did in Game 1’s first quarter for the remainder of Game 2. They do not need to play well to cover.

Minnesota has shown they can keep it close, they get a reasonably sized spread, and they know what they have to do to cash. As long as Edwards plays and Minnesota plays with more pace than they did after the first period of Game 1, the Timberwolves have a good chance to cover the spread Monday night.

Jim's Play: 505. TimberWolves 

Atlanta can legitimately cover Monday because the total number is still at a spot where it’s feasible in a playoff game. The Knicks opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2 in Madison Square Garden and metrics are not pricing this like a total blowout even with New York holding a 1-0 series lead.

Atlanta is worth playing against the spread because they’ve already proven they can give New York trouble on offense in Game 1. The Knicks wound up winning 113-102, but storylines coming out of the game detailed how Atlanta’s small-small pick-and-roll combinations gave New York fits before the Knicks found a solution to slow it down after halftime. This is valuable for a spread wager because playoff series become about counters, and Atlanta has a good understanding of what worked for them and what they’ll need to revisit in Game 2.

Atlanta also proved they can generate enough offense to keep games close with CJ McCollum scoring 26 points in the opener while Atlanta was competitive for most of the game before the Knicks pulled away. Having a perimeter scoring option like McCollum is helpful when you’re an underdog because you don’t need to win the game outright to cover, you just need to avoid giving yourself too big of a hole to climb out of.

Both teams’ injury reports add more fuel to this fire. Onyeka Okongwu is a game-time decision for Atlanta while OG Anunoby is also a game-time decision for New York. If Okongwu is able to play that gives the Hawks more depth inside to help with rebounding, and any sort of limitation for Anunoby weakens one of the Knicks’ biggest defensive strengths.

Last but not least, Atlanta has recent evidence that they can keep this game close. The Knicks previously beat Atlanta earlier this month by only 108-105, which lines up with the theory that this can be a close game regardless of who wins outright. Throw all that information together and you have a logical recipe for betting Atlanta: workable spread number, offensive counters they can utilize after picking up on them in Game 1, and enough offensive firepower to hang around for long stretches. All the signs point to Atlanta covering the spread on Monday against the Knicks.

Jim's Play: 503. Hawks

Toronto covers Monday because the spread still affords the Raptors plenty of cushion in what should be a tighter Game 2 than Game 1. Cleveland opened as a -8.5 favorite before settling at -9.5. 

It also makes sense from a bounce-back premise after Toronto’s 126-113 loss on Saturday. That final score might as well have been 13 because Cleveland entered the fourth quarter with a lead of 100-76. This implied Toronto spent Game 1 missing shots while Cleveland caught fire from deep (the Cavs went 16-for-32 on three-pointers). Toronto did score 24 points from RJ Barrett, 21 points from Scottie Barnes, and 17 points apiece from Brandon Ingram and Jamal Shead. Granted, seven Raptors reached double-figures, but they had enough offense to keep pace with Cleveland had they not had lapses on defense their coach highlighted after the game.

Immanuel Quickley’s availability is another key factor in Toronto’s favor on the spread. He missed Game 1 with a strained hamstring, but currently list as game-time decision for Monday. He was expected to miss multiple games before being deemed active for just Game 1. Toronto probably would not roll him 100 percent if he is available, but having any real chance to activate him means the Raptors should be able to stabilize their guard play, pace, and half-court offense.

Toronto has enough playmakers to make adjustments in a playoff game too. Toronto finished with a 46-36 record while Cleveland went 52-30. Toronto’s resume was not bad enough to run away from this spot, but they do have Barnes, Barrett, and Ingram to prevent Cleveland from pulling away on the Raptors again.

Toronto covering the spread is your 1st Round Game of the Year because the Raptors can improve from Game 1, figure to have more rotation depth if Quickley can play, and the betting line has moved towards Cleveland enough to where you can trust the dog. If Toronto defends three-point shooting better and prevents Cleveland from heating up like they did in Game 1, they will have a great opportunity to keep it closer than expected Monday night.

Jim's Play: 501. Raptors (NBA 1st Round Game of the Year)

Detroit projects as an above-average team across the board, but you can still find value on the Pistons to cover considering how high this number has gone. Right now, Detroit is laying about 8.5 points, and games with spreads that large can get exposed if the underdog can slow things down and force a half-court game.

Offense should be able to flow through Cade Cunningham. Detroit scored 117.8 points per game this season compared to Orlando’s 115.7, but the Pistons also had a clear advantage in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Detroit having edges in so many statistical categories shows they have multiple avenues to create separation, even if their shooting isn’t falling at an ideal rate.

Home court advantage is another big piece of the puzzle. Detroit went 60-22 on the year and 31-9 at home while Orlando went 19-20 on the road. 

Detroit even has a recent form edge. The Pistons won 12 of their last 15 games to take the East’s No. 1 seed. That shows Detroit was playing well into the regular season rather than tuning up for the playoffs. When a No. 1 seed is playing that well heading into the playoffs and has home-court advantage in Game 1, they’re easier to bet on to cover.

Just keep an eye on injury reports. Detroit’s game preview currently lists Jalen Duren as day to day with a knee contusion, and his availability could become relevant on the boards and in the paint. If Cunningham is firing and Detroit gets solid defensive looks at home, there’s a clear path for the Pistons to cover Sunday against Orlando.

The Lakers have value to cover and possibly win outright because this spread is being influenced by health and playoff experience just as much as seed line. Los Angeles hosts Game 1 and the Rockets opened as favorites, but Houston lists Kevin Durant as questionable to play after nursing a knee injury during the week. Steven Adams is also officially ruled out for the season.

Why does that matter? Because if Durant is compromised in any way, Houston loses a significant portion of its half-court offense and late-clock scoring options.

LeBron James remains the biggest reason to bet on the Lakers, though, due to playoff experience. James is still producing like an elite player at age 41. He’s averaging 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists this season. This matchup is getting billed as another big LeBron stage in the postseason.

In a tight spread game, playoff experience can go a long way because the Lakers simply need LeBron to keep things close late. They don’t need to dominate for a cover to hit. They just need LeBron to prevent Houston from running away with this game, thus keeping Los Angeles in it down the stretch.

Los Angeles also has some motivation and urgency to steal this game outright. This a true marquee matchup and shows the Lakers have plenty of injuries to lick wounds against their own talented roster with Luka Doncic ruled out and Austin Reaves questionable. If too many people think L.A. can’t hang with a healthy Rockets squad because of injuries, then the number naturally creeps higher than it should be against LeBron and the Lakers.

We could see value on Los Angeles if the line gets pushed because of injury news and public betting overwhelms toward Houston’s talent level. Home underdogs in the playoffs with an elite closer tend to become dangerous bets because basketball slows down on a possession-by-possession basis.

Houston isn’t traveling to Los Angeles completely healthy, either. Fred VanVleet will miss this game, so if Durant isn’t at full strength we could see Houston turn to players like Josh Giddey and others to create offense. That’s when the Lakers can make a game ugly and stick with the Rockets for four quarters.

Expect L.A. to attempt to slow down the game’s tempo and force Houston to play in the mud. They have the players and size to make Houston work for buckets and limit transition scoring opportunities. If those scenarios occur, then the Lakers can keep this close and an outright win becomes in the cards.

In summary, the Lakers have home floor, LeBron’s playoff experience, a line that could get inflated too far against them because of injuries, and a Rockets team that has its own questions surrounding availability. 

Jim's Play: 584. Lakers

Atlanta also has strong value to cover the spread in Game 1. The number asks the Hawks to keep it within 5.5 points; it does not require them to win outright. Atlanta was a good road team all year at 22-19, and while New York was excellent at home at 30-10, Atlanta still finished with a great 46-36 record, tied with Toronto. 

Atlanta can stay inside the number because of their offensive profile. Atlanta averaged 118.5 points per game while New York scored 116.5 ppg. Atlanta also averaged 30.1 assists per game to the Knicks’ 27.4. That assists number matters in a spread bet because teams that can score and move the ball typically have a better chance to keep games close, even if the favorite plays well enough to control stretches.

Atlanta also has recent evidence that they can match up with New York. The Hawks and Knicks just played on April 6 and the Knicks won that game by only 108-105. This spread would’ve been covered. That game from two weeks ago acts as a useful guide here because it shows Atlanta can keep this matchup close, within one possession against the Knicks, before the playoff adjustment even kicks in.

There is also a mild situational factor in Atlanta’s corner. New York closed the regular season with a 110-96 home loss to Charlotte while Atlanta’s last two meaningful games were a 124-102 win over Cleveland followed by the loss at Miami in the finale. The Knicks are absolutely still the better team and the deserved favorite. However, New York is not coming in at full strength here and that late-season stumble feels like it could prevent them from coming out as strong as they could in Game 1.

The biggest concern for Atlanta here is health and depth. Backup center Jock Landale will be out for Atlanta with an ankle injury. Atlanta loses some frontcourt depth there, but the spread value still works even with Landale sidelined. Atlanta has the offensive firepower to keep up with New York and recent proof that they can compete with them. If the Hawks shoot reasonably well and don’t get absolutely destroyed on the glass, they have a path to cover +5.5 on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 581. Hawks

Charlotte lines up a legitimate money-line case Friday because they have better short-term momentum and already proved they can win when the stakes are high in a postseason-type environment. The Hornets defeated Miami 127-126 in overtime on Tuesday during their 9-vs-10 play-in game as LaMelo Ball dropped 30 points and Miles Bridges added 28, allowing Charlotte to advance to this final play-in contest against Orlando for the East’s No. 8 seed. 

Something else to like about Charlotte: how this Hornets team matched up with Orlando previously. Charlotte defeated Orlando by 130-111 back on March 20 and they won the regular-season series 3-1, which is significant in a one-game scenario because it means Charlotte’s speed, shot-making ability and overall matchup have been troublesome for Orlando in the past.

Here’s one more factor working in Charlotte’s favor: a rest advantage. Orlando suffered a 109-97 defeat at Philadelphia on Wednesday night and they never really quit, but they were very much in that game before fading down the stretch as Tyrese Maxey exploded for 28 fourth-quarter points. So Orlando is playing on short rest while coming off a physical defeat, whereas Charlotte got an extra day of rest after winning its play-in opener.

Charlotte needs Ball and Bridges to keep their offense aggressive, they have to play with confidence after taking down Miami and cause more matchup issues for Orlando, who they beat three times already this season. As a game this close, I like Charlotte as a money-line play Friday due to that recent head-to-head advantage and possessing the better momentum.

Jim's Play: 573. Hornets (Money Line)

Let’s start with why Orlando actually has a legitimate shot to win outright Wednesday night. The value shifts significantly when Joel Embiid is ruled out for Philadelphia. Embiid is Philly’s best interior scorer, rebounder, and rim protector, so multiple previews highlighted the center matchup as a weakness for Philly, as they will have to rely on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona to keep up with Orlando’s frontcourt talent. This shift becomes glaring when you consider Orlando is built around larger wings and forwards like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane.

Orlando also sports the type of roster that should make life difficult for Philadelphia’s guards. The Magic operate as one of the bigger teams in the league while also boasting strong perimeter defense as part of its identity. Multiple betting previews noted the Magic’s defense presents issues for Philadelphia, especially if Tyrese Maxey can’t fully stay on top of his finger tendon injury while Embiid sits. If Orlando can keep Maxey grounded, it really does even the playing field in what would otherwise be a typical road play-in favorite scenario.

Don’t overlook the talent side of things with Orlando, either. Simply put, Orlando boasts three potential star scorers with Banchero, Wagner, and Bane. Coverage targeting Philadelphia mentioned the trio as “dangerous” and noted how any of those three are capable of exploding for 30-plus points. In a play-in game, shot creation will be paramount, and Orlando having multiple players that defenses fear is a net positive.

Throw in that Orlando was riding four straight wins just a week ago when they dropped 53.7% from the field and 41.4% from three against Minnesota, and there’s some recent form backing up this upset and cover argument as well. The Magic posted up a nearly identical 45-37 record to Philly’s, so we’re not talking about some massive discrepancy game on paper. This one should be close based solely on records, and that was reflected in the opening line with Orlando as a slight underdog around +2.

Putting it all together, I really like Orlando’s best-case game script: attack Philly with size in the post, create good offense through Banchero and Wagner, and force an undermanned Sixers team to play from behind without Embiid controlling the paint. If that happens, the Magic have every chance in the world to pull off the outright win. 

Jim's Play: 561. Magic (Play-In Game of the Year)

Miami can cover this play-in game against No 9 seeded Charlotte as the Heat have more postseason experience heading into this win-or-go-home scenario, and they’re coming off a strong finish to the regular season. Miami clinched the No. 10 spot with a victory on Sunday, defeating Atlanta 143-117 behind Bam Adebayo’s 25 points, Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 26, and the return of Norman Powell, who added 25 points of his own. Find that kind of offensive flow and confidence heading into a play-in game and it definitely pays dividends in a game where efficiency and calm usually play such large roles.

Speaking of Charlotte, there’s also an argument to be made that the market is a little too bullish on the Hornets. While Charlotte did clinch the No. 9 seed and home court advantage with a 110-96 victory over New York on Sunday night, that was against a Knicks team that sat several key rotation players. The Knicks were protecting their playoff rotation, not exactly playing full strength and coming at Charlotte with high-intensity pressure. Both teams were really close in the regular-season win column too, with Charlotte finishing 44-38 and Miami right behind at 43-39.

Plus, Miami just has the roster construction to keep an elimination game competitive on the road. Adebayo allows the Heat to play with a steady interior presence on both sides of the court, and Powell getting healthy at the right time adds another bucket-getter to Miami’s arsenal. Tyler Herro and Davion Mitchell returned for Miami’s finale too, which means the Heat brings added creation and backcourt solidity into Tuesday’s game. When it comes down to one game, those veteran shooters and a strong defensive foundation should be enough to keep Miami within the number, even in the event of a Charlotte win.

Charlotte may even keep things close regardless, as the historical matchup numbers favor Miami covering here. Miami owns 10 of the last 12 against Charlotte, and that number had the Hornets as a 5.5-point home favorite. That implies Miami can keep the ticket alive by simply keeping it close, and combined with the play-in desperation factor, strong finish to the season, and complementary veteran core players, Miami has a good recipe for doing just that.

Jim's Play: 565. Heat

Denver has a strong case to cover at home because the Nuggets still have something meaningful to play for, while Oklahoma City has already locked up the West’s top seed and best overall regular-season record. Denver enters Friday on a 10-game winning streak and is still battling to secure the No. 3 seed, so the urgency is clearly on the Nuggets’ side. Oklahoma City, by contrast, has already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which changes the motivation and rotation outlook for this spot.

The availability angle is the biggest reason to like Denver against the number. Reports for Friday list Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, along with several other key Thunder contributors, including Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams. Other reporting also says Oklahoma City is expected to sit major pieces such as Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. That is a lot of top-end creation, defense, and depth missing from one side, especially against a Denver team that has been rolling offensively.

There is also a form edge working for Denver. The Nuggets just beat Memphis for their 10th straight win, and that stretch has included strong play from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, with Denver continuing to look sharp on the offensive end. Denver improved to 52-28 with that win, showing how locked in the Nuggets are heading into the final weekend of the regular season. If Denver approaches this with normal urgency, the combination of current form and home floor makes them the more trustworthy side.

Jim's Play: 520. Nuggets

Houston has some ground to stand on in betting -1.5 against Minnesota Wednesday, March 25, 2026, but the strongest route to that number starts with the injury advantage. The Wolves are still without Anthony Edwards and his right knee inflammation, and  Ayo Dosunmu is questionable. Houston counters with Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams on the injury report, but Edwards not suiting up is the bigger individual loss in this game and Edwards is a massive late-clock shot creator who the Wolves will miss greatly in a spread this close.

The other factor tilting this spread Houston’s way is playoff desperation and the standings. These teams are a half-game apart in the race for Western Conference playoff positioning, so we are not exactly talking about a dead spot in either schedule. For Houston, this is exactly the type of game that will make or break seeding. Playoff implications combined with a near pick’em make betting the fractionally healthier team on the top of the number an appealing play.

Houston also offers a clear path on offense when attacking the rim through its primary playmakers. Houston shot 52% from the field and 47% from deep in its recent victory over Atlanta with Kevin Durant firing and Alperen Sengun nearly recording a triple-double. Houston lost at Chicago next but Sengun dominated with 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists and the Rockets still put up 124 points despite an atrocious start to the game. Houston’s offense seems good enough to win this game if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot again to begin things.

Minnesota becomes a fade when you consider how reliant they are on role players at the moment.  Minnesota has won three of four without Edwards, including recently on the road against Boston. Betting Houston isn’t an easy tilt for those reasons. But Edwards not playing still means the Wolves are having to lean on players like Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert to continue overperforming on offense. Players can have one great game, especially against a Houston team that lacks top-end scoring threats, but betting against Minnesota’s offense regressing some without Edwards makes sense.

At the end of the day, Houston only needs to win by a bucket or two because the number is -1.5. If KD and Sengun dictate the pace on offense and Minnesota senses those missing Edwards possessions down the stretch, Houston has the advantage and should cash.

Jim's Play: 573. Rockets 

 The number itself is already being bet at 234.5 and Denver is favored by about 4.5 to 5 points. To reach 234.5 with Denver as a four or five-point favorite means that the betting public is expecting a high-efficiency game from both teams rather than a slow grinder. Denver enters the game at 44-28 and Phoenix at 40-32, both marks that frame this as an attractive Western Conference matchup where both teams will probably need to keep scoring pressure on for all four quarters.

The Suns offensive explosion potential: Both teams have enough offensive star power to hit the 115-plus range from either team. Whether it's Nikola Jokic vs. Devin Booker, Denver comes into the game playing well as it fights for playoff position while Phoenix still tries to hold onto play-in status. When both teams have a lot to play for, you are less likely to see a flat paced game or a bench-heavy second half.

Phoenix’s last few games have landed right around the total: In Phoenix’s last five games the final scores have been 120-98, 105-108, 100-101, 104-116 and 112-120. As you can see by those results, Phoenix has had several games that would’ve gone over even before digging into how they match up with Denver. When they do match up with a stronger offensive team like Denver the total should rise even higher.

Denver can keep up as well: Denver coming into Phoenix on a hot streak and Peyton Watson returning to deepen a rotation that has found ways to win despite injuries all year. Even if Watson isn’t going to be a headline contributor, a healthier Nuggets rotation helps them keep offensive pressure on for longer stretches of time and gives them a better chance to score when their second unit is in the game.

This game is lined as competitive, not a blowout. With Denver only being favored by about four and a half points, naturally the expectation is that both teams will have chances to win late and play closer to their expected pace rather than settling for a low-scoring game early. Close games tend to be better for totals because teams are less likely to alter their game plan and slow the game down, instead playing an efficient brand of basketball down the stretch. This also leaves open the possibility for free throws to climb over the total in the final minutes if the game is close.

One reason why the total may go under: Phoenix recently had an underscored game against Milwaukee that finished 108-105 and has played in the 101-100 range against San Antonio recently. Games like that can scare people away from the over, but ultimately show that the Suns are playing competitive games where both teams have possession late. Against Denver’s more well-rounded offense, those close games may actually help the over rather than hurt it.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets / Suns OVER 

I’m taking the Clippers tonight just because I believe Milwaukee’s injury report is the biggest matchup relevant factor. Milwaukee listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as out today with a knee injury. He was expected to be re-evaluated in roughly one week. Kevin Porter Jr. is also out tonight and Kyle Kuzma is questionable. Losing Giannis for what could be up to a week plus KPJ and Kuzma for tonight would be a major blow to Milwaukee who is just 29-41 on the season and 13-22 away from home.

Milwaukee’s lack of health also works in L.A.’s favor from a recent-form perspective. The Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 138-131 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday night. They got 41 points and 11 assists from Darius Garland and 34 points from Kawhi Leonard while shooting 56.7% from the floor and 21-of-42 from deep. This matters because the Clippers offense may have finally woken up before the season ended and if that momentum can carry at home versus Milwaukee, the Bucks may have a tough time keeping up.

Milwaukee did find ways to beat Phoenix 108-105 on Saturday without Giannis so this is not the spot to completely write off the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won that game in a tight fashion and even then the offense still had to feast off of role players such as Ryan Rollins. Not having Giannis, KPJ and Kuzma or Kuzma limited is a scary proposition for Bucks fans. Going on the road and having to keep within two possessions of a Clippers team that still has the playoffs on their mind is a tall task.

My cleanest cover script for this game is the Clippers’ healthier core provides them more efficient offense and Milwaukee can’t create enough top-end scoring without Giannis. The game gets away from Milwaukee even faster if Kuzma is limited or ruled out of the game. One final wrinkle to keep an eye on: Kawhi Leonard is a game time decision so we’ll know closer to tip which direction this leans. If he plays, the cover side of the Clippers is much stronger in my opinion.

Jim's Play: 550. Clippers

First, look at pace and style of play. The Knicks don’t play particularly fast, as their pace is around 97.5 possessions per game. They also happen to have one of the better defenses in the league, at approximately a 112.9 defensive rating. That’s important because New York often wins games with execution and stops rather than run-and-gun basketball.

Secondly, Indiana has simply not been good on offense this season, and injuries haven’t helped their cause. The Pacers Injury Report notes that New York will likely be without Pascal Siakam while Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard and Quenton Jackson have been spotted on injury reports as of Thursday. They also come in riding a franchise-record-long losing streak, and in their most recent outing against the Knicks they scored just 92 points in a 101-92 defeat on March 14.

And I mentioned that game specifically because it played out exactly how an under scenario would look like. The Knicks won with stout defense, rebounding, and game management. There was no need for an offensive onslaught. Mitchell Robinson had 22 boards in that contest and New York held the Pacers to under 100 points.

Speaking of rebounds and games being decided on the glass, there’s even a game flow angle we can look at. The total is sitting at about 223.5 points but the spread is gigantic Knicks -15.5. Wide spread totals often favor unders as the team with the lead often doesn’t need to play as fast late and the team playing from behind often faces set defenders and can’t score with ease. New York could very well get this game out of reach early and Pacers coach Nate Bjorkgren could just lean on the defense and let the game get ugly in the second half.

Injury updates on the Knicks side of things lean toward the under as well, as. Brunson is questionable to play tonight, but the Knicks have found ways to manage injuries to rotation players as of late. Regardless of whether he plays or not, any kind of limitation on the Knicks’ top creator will suppress the team’s upside offensively, while their defense should still give them enough of a formula to win this game.

Between New York’s slower pace of play, Indiana’s injuries/issues on offense, the results from their last game together, and natural game flow of a potential blowout tilted in New York’s favor all point toward the UNDER 223.5 being the better bet.

Jim's Play: 523. Under Pacers/Knicks

Houston is in a strong situational spot at home in a game with major Western Conference seeding implications. The matchup is at Toyota Center, and current market reporting has the Rockets around -2.5 with the total around 226.5. Houston already beat the Lakers once this season and can lock up the season series with another win, which matters in a crowded West race.

The best argument for the Rockets against the spread is that they’ve already shown they can bother this version of the Lakers physically. In the first meeting, Houston beat L.A. 119-96 on Christmas Day, leading wire to wire. In that game and in preview coverage for Monday’s rematch, Houston’s size, rebounding, and defensive pressure were highlighted as real problems for the Lakers, especially by keeping L.A. off the foul line.

Houston also profiles well enough on both ends to justify being a home favorite. The Rockets are scoring about 114.1 points per game, own roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating, and carry a 113.2 defensive rating, while the Lakers are allowing about a 116.8 defensive rating on the season. That’s a good setup for Houston’s scorers and slashers, especially at home, where their physical style tends to play up.

The injury and rest angle also nudges toward Houston. The Rockets enter with Alperen Sengun listed GTD, while Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, and Jae’Sean Tate are reported out. Even with that, Houston just beat New Orleans behind 32 from Kevin Durant and a big two-way line from Amen Thompson. The Lakers, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional 127-125 overtime win over Denver on Saturday night, which raises the possibility of some defensive slippage on the road after a draining performance from Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James.

As for the OVER, the clearest angle is offensive efficiency. The Lakers are scoring about 116.5 points per game with a 117.8 offensive rating, while Houston is at about 114.1 points per game with roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating. Even if Houston plays a bit slower overall, both teams are efficient enough to get this into the high 220s if they shoot anywhere near season norms.

There’s also recent form supporting points. The Lakers just played a 127-125 game against Denver and a 142-130 game against Chicago, showing how explosive they can be when Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron are all generating offense. Houston has been more volatile, but its recent results include a 145-120 loss to San Antonio and enough half-court firepower from Durant, Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and possibly Sengun to take advantage of a Laker defense that, despite recent improvement, still owns a season defensive rating near 116.8.

The one caution on the over is that Houston’s pace is modest at about 96.1, while the Lakers are closer to 98.6. So this is not purely a pace bet. It’s more of an efficiency and game-script bet: close spread, playoff-seeding stakes, star shot-makers on both sides, and a number in the mid-220s that can be beaten without either team needing a wild tempo.

Jim's Play: 514. Rockets 

Houston is in a strong situational spot at home in a game with major Western Conference seeding implications. The matchup is at Toyota Center, and current market reporting has the Rockets around -2.5 with the total around 226.5. Houston already beat the Lakers once this season and can lock up the season series with another win, which matters in a crowded West race.

The best argument for the Rockets against the spread is that they’ve already shown they can bother this version of the Lakers physically. In the first meeting, Houston beat L.A. 119-96 on Christmas Day, leading wire to wire. In that game and in preview coverage for Monday’s rematch, Houston’s size, rebounding, and defensive pressure were highlighted as real problems for the Lakers, especially by keeping L.A. off the foul line.

Houston also profiles well enough on both ends to justify being a home favorite. The Rockets are scoring about 114.1 points per game, own roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating, and carry a 113.2 defensive rating, while the Lakers are allowing about a 116.8 defensive rating on the season. That’s a good setup for Houston’s scorers and slashers, especially at home, where their physical style tends to play up.

The injury and rest angle also nudges toward Houston. The Rockets enter with Alperen Sengun listed GTD, while Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, and Jae’Sean Tate are reported out. Even with that, Houston just beat New Orleans behind 32 from Kevin Durant and a big two-way line from Amen Thompson. The Lakers, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional 127-125 overtime win over Denver on Saturday night, which raises the possibility of some defensive slippage on the road after a draining performance from Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James.

As for the OVER, the clearest angle is offensive efficiency. The Lakers are scoring about 116.5 points per game with a 117.8 offensive rating, while Houston is at about 114.1 points per game with roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating. Even if Houston plays a bit slower overall, both teams are efficient enough to get this into the high 220s if they shoot anywhere near season norms.

There’s also recent form supporting points. The Lakers just played a 127-125 game against Denver and a 142-130 game against Chicago, showing how explosive they can be when Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron are all generating offense. Houston has been more volatile, but its recent results include a 145-120 loss to San Antonio and enough half-court firepower from Durant, Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and possibly Sengun to take advantage of a Laker defense that, despite recent improvement, still owns a season defensive rating near 116.8.

The one caution on the over is that Houston’s pace is modest at about 96.1, while the Lakers are closer to 98.6. So this is not purely a pace bet. It’s more of an efficiency and game-script bet: close spread, playoff-seeding stakes, star shot-makers on both sides, and a number in the mid-220s that can be beaten without either team needing a wild tempo.

Jim's Play: 513. Lakers/Rockets OVER 

I like the over on Jazz-Kings mostly because both teams have played free-flowing, defenseless basketball lately. Utah dropped 124 on Portland on Friday, topped Golden State 119-116 earlier this week, and allowed 134 points in a loss to the Knicks. Sacramento has had similarly high scores in recent games too, with scores of 117-109, 114-109, 126-110, and 133-123 in its last few outings. That’s the type of scoring environment you like to see when leaning over.

I also like that both teams’ injuries are more damaging to their defense than their pace. Utah has played without Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Keyonte George, and Jaren Jackson Jr. of late while Sacramento’s injury report came down Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and Zach Lavine out, Malik Monk questionable. Losing that much rim protection and on-ball size typically leads to more opportunities for transition buckets, mismatch opportunities, and easy buckets.

Taking the over makes sense to me because these teams can’t defend anyone at the moment, they’ve both been trending in high-scoring games as of late, and the injuries lend themselves to sloppy lineups instead of lock-down lineups. If enough scorers sit for either team, it could limit shooting efficiency, but after studying recent numbers I expect this to be a game that finishes in the 230s, not one that ends up in the low 220s.

Jim's Play:  573. Jazz/Kings OVER 

There is a solid case for Minnesota and Oklahoma City to go under the total because the injury and lineup context points toward a less efficient game than usual. The official NBA injury report listed Anthony Edwards as questionable for Minnesota with right knee soreness, while Oklahoma City’s  injury report showed Jalen Williams out and Isaiah Hartenstein questionable. If either side is missing a primary scorer or interior finisher, that can drag down offensive efficiency more than the market expects.

Another under angle is that Minnesota has been more volatile offensively on this road trip than its season profile suggests. Reuters noted the Wolves scored only 106 points in their March 11 loss to the Lakers, with Edwards managing just 14 points on 2-for-15 shooting, and a Wolves preview described the team as coming off a rough defensive and emotional stretch that has hurt its overall rhythm. In a road game against the West’s top seed, that instability can lead to more empty possessions and a slower, more half-court style.

The matchup setting also supports a tighter game. Oklahoma City enters at 52-15 and Minnesota at 41-26, with real playoff-seeding pressure on both sides, and this game is at Paycom Center. That kind of late-season, high-leverage spot often produces a more focused defensive effort, especially from a Thunder team protecting home court and from a Wolves team trying to stop a skid.

There is one caution: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still capable of exploding offensively, and Oklahoma City’s offense is strong enough to threaten an over by itself on the right night. But the cleaner betting case is the under because of the uncertainty around Edwards, the Thunder’s missing pieces, and the playoff-style urgency that usually tightens possessions. This feels more like a game played in the low 220s than one that turns into a free-flowing shootout.

Jim's Play: 561. Wolves/Thunder UNDER

I like the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread at the LA Lakers on Saturday night.  The Nuggets enter with momentum after an incredible comeback victory and they still boast the best player in this game. Denver clawed its way back from down 20 on Thursday night to defeat San Antonio 136-131 behind 39 points from Jamal Murray and a 31-point, 20 rebound, 12 assist triple-double from Nikola Jokic. That type of elite shot creation and half-court offense travels, especially in a road game of this magnitude.

Denver also gets a slight edge due to the way the Lakers won on Thursday. Los Angeles defeated Chicago 142-130 behind 51 points from Luka Doncic, but the Lakers also gave up 130 points and Chicago shot 53.7% from the floor. Chicago was good, but Los Angeles wasn’t exactly stout defensively which is a dangerous recipe against Denver and Joki?.

Denver may even hold an availability advantage here. Denver’s official NBA injury report from Friday night listed Michael Porter Jr. (knee) as doubtful, but Lakers had multiple players on their injury report in public pregame reports from Saturday. At the very least, this is one where the lineups matter, but Denver has shown the ability to generate top-notch offense from Murray and Jokic even when they aren’t at full strength.

My best bet prediction is on Denver simply because: Nikola Jokic is the most reliable player in basketball, Murray is coming off a monster game, and the Lakers defense did not look good Thursday night. Denver has the stars and experience to keep you inside the number if it becomes a possession by possession battle.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets

I look to the NBA Southeast division for this mismatchp on Thursday as the division's top team, the Orlando Magic, takes on the worst team, the Washington Wizards. 

Orlando has the best reason to cover because this feels like a classic letdown spot against an overmatched opponent. The Magic are playing like a legitimate playoff team that is hot coming off a five-game winning streak, and the Wizards are playing like a lottery team that stinks coming off nine consecutive losses. Washington lost 150-129 to Miami on Tuesday. Orlando beat Cleveland 128-122 on Wednesday. That sort of difference in form explains why the public betting market has pushed Orlando into such heavy-favorite territory.

Timing of game plays into Orlando as well. Washington is coming in at the end of a Florida trip, fresher legs and all, after giving up 150 points against Miami the previous night. Orlando, meanwhile, gets to stay at home and play at Kia Center on Thursday. When one team can’t stop you and the other team wants the ball in its own hands on its home floor, it usually makes it easier for the favorite to create distance.

Washington giving up so many points also helps Orlando’s case. The Wizards’ recent performances indicate a team that has had major difficulties stopping opponents, and that could spell trouble against an Orlando team that has enjoyed excellent offensive balance from Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero and Tristan da Silva during this winning streak. Bane had 35 points against Cleveland. Banchero posted 25 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Da Silva added 23 points. Given that kind of scoring balance, Orlando should be able to cover a big number if Washington struggles defensively like it has been.

Lastly, injuries favor Orlando despite the Magic not being at full health. Per the official NBA injury report, Anthony Black was ruled out for Orlando on Wednesday night. Public game previews for this matchup have listed Washington with multiple players dealing with injury concerns heading into this one including Anthony Davis out, Kyshawn George out and Bub Carrington questionable. Orlando is without Franz Wagner and his ankle injury as well, but the market still opened the Magic up at around -15. If injuries were a reason to fade Orlando right now, the betting line would be much higher than that.

Washington is a big spread dog, so there is always backdoor risk, but the most straightforward argument is that the Wizards have shown little ability to compete over their last several games, while Orlando has played well enough to cover this number.

Jim's Play: 516. Magic -15 

Let’s start with why the Clippers should cover here. This is a very short number at home. Minnesota opened around -1.5 in most books, but saw its line quickly fall to around the Clippers -2. When you price a game this tightly, you are really just asking Los Angeles to win at home. I like that play against the Timberwolves coming off a bad loss.

Minnesota had its own rough outing before this game, losing 120-106 to the Lakers on Tuesday. That was Minnesota’s second straight loss after a five-game winning streak. Anthony Edwards managed just 14 points on 2-for-15 shooting, and the Wolves fell apart in the second half against LA, getting killed in the third quarter 39-23. When a team plays that poorly on one side of the ball against the Lakers and then you bet the other team the next day off one day of rest, recent form absolutely matters.

Speaking of recent form, the Clippers also benefit from their spot in the schedule. Minnesota is currently in the midst of a road trip while Los Angeles hosts this one in Intuit Dome on Wednesday. That game notes link above lists the official game time as 7: 30 p.m. PT for the Clippers, which matters because home floor is valuable in what should only be a one-possession spread.

Minnesota also sports a cleaner injury report, though injuries are not enough to sway this one away from Los Angeles. The NBA’s morning injury report had Minnesota not listed yet, but the Clippers were sitting without Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser. With all three players already ruled out, the Clippers were still getting listed as favorites. That tells me the market thinks the Clippers are the better team even with their injuries.

For me, the biggest factor for the Clippers is the trifecta of home court advantage, a very small spread, and Minnesota playing a back-to-back after two poor results. If the Clippers can play good enough defense to limit Minnesota and get LeBron and Kawhi to shoot something approaching their season averages, this feels like a spot where Los Angeles can cover and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 512. Clippers 

I look for the Philadelphia 76ers to get me the win and cover here on Tuesday because Memphis comes in short-handed and playing poorly. Memphis has dropped four in a row and news articles from Monday night’s loss at Brooklyn said Memphis was injury depleted and short on rotation players.

The game also being in Philadelphia helps the Sixers. The game takes place in Philadelphia on Tuesday, March 10 but Memphis is playing it following Monday’s road game in Brooklyn so Memphis not only is short-handed but playing a tough back-to-back.

Philadelphia also can still score with its injuries, at least at home. On March 5, they defeated Utah 106-102 behind 25 points from Tyrese Maxey and good games from Quentin Grimes and Jabari Walker. If Philly can manufacture enough points when the matchup is right, they can do it again here.

Of course, the big caution is that Philadelphia is also missing players. Tyrese Maxey was listed Sunday as expected to miss Monday and Tuesday with a sprained finger and when I looked at the official NBA injury reports Monday night, neither team had turned in its final injury report.

But again, because of the matchup, Philadelphia covering really isn’t about them being completely healthy. Memphis is on a four-game skid, clearly thinner than Philly at the moment, and has to play this game with no rest while the market is only giving them a moderate spread rather than an enormous number. If the Grizzlies are as short-handed as they were on Monday, the Sixers should have a good chance to cover at home.

Jim's Play: 558. 76ers  

I'll look to lay the big points here tonight with the Cleveland Cavs over the Sixers.  The NBA Injury Report has Joel Embiid out, Tyrese Maxey out and Paul George out for Philadelphia, with VJ Edgecombe questionable. The 76ers will be extremely short-handed Monday night when they travel to play the Cavs.

Cleveland is also getting a favorable matchup at an ideal time. Per Reuters, the Cavaliers already defeated the 76ers twice this season. Monday’s contest takes place without large portions of Philadelphia’s offensive core. That becomes significant with the line settling in the Cavaliers -11.5 to -12.5 range because Cleveland doesn’t need to play well to win by 10-plus points against Embiid and company.

A third reason to lean towards Cleveland is the bounce-back game. The Cavs fell to Boston on Sunday, but Donovan Mitchell dropped 30 points and Evan Mobley finished with 24. Cleveland still has the top-end talent to score efficiently, and good teams often play well after stumbling. Philadelphia presents a much easier game than Boston did.

Finally, the back-to-back situation for Philadelphia favors the home team. The 76ers travel to Cleveland without its stars and will have far less room for error on offense. Mitchell and Mobley should be available to control the pace of the game, and if Cleveland defends like an average team, Philadelphia might not score enough to keep them inside a large number.

As Cleveland has the advantage in depth, schedule and injury report, I believe the Cavs are the better side to win by margin. They should be able to pull away by the second half and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: Take: 548. Cavaliers  

Detroit has the horses to cover -14 vs Brooklyn on SAT MAR 7, 2026. The matchup just doesn’t feel like it’s even close to be landing at that number right now when looking at both recent form and key personnel. Brooklyn is 15–47 and coming off a 10-game losing streak. Their profile screams “away team that gets worse when the game tightens up.” Meanwhile, Detroit has played like one of the best teams all year (45–16) and has demonstrated that they can build and maintain leads at home by playing excellent defense and converting that into offense rather than needing a clean shooting night from start to finish. It also helps that injuries/rotation trends are pointing towards Cover since the NBA’s official injury report has Cade Cunningham questionable (quad contusion) and Jalen Duren probable while Brooklyn’s is basically nonexistent outside of Egor Demin being out. If Cade is able to play (even if it’s limited), the Pistons will have a consistent playmaker to avoid catastrophic dry spells where opponents can make up significant ground. And who knows, maybe Cade sits this one out entirely. The spread can live in that scenario as well considering how Brooklyn is playing right now; it’s tough for them to play efficient offense for all 4 quarters so they consistently find themselves in positions where a first half they were in control of gets away from them. Detroit widens the gap on the glass, draws more fouls, and converts those misses into stops into points in the 3rd.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

Charlotte covering starts with recent trends as to how both teams have played against the spread. The Hornets are scorching at the window right now with a 9-0 ATS run and have also won 5-0 ATS in their last five at home. Miami, on the other hand, has been unable to cover at home recently: 1-5 ATS in their last six road trips against Charlotte, while Charlotte owns the 5-1 mark ATS in the last six meetings at home. Playing against the number in your building and owning those kinds of numbers is always important.

Depth is also an interesting story here. Per the NBA’s official injury report for game-day, Charlotte is coping with end-of-bench/G-League type losses along with Tidjane Salaun sidelined due to a calf injury. Miami’s report had not yet been submitted at the time of that report coming out, but several injury/tracker sites have shown Miami missing/playing through rotation players ahead of this matchup (Simone Fontecchio and Nikola Jovic have been listed as out for a lot of previews). Those kinds of injuries tend to show up late in games when you need contributions from the perimeter.

Charlotte has played confident basketball as of late, they’ve been steady at home with the number and Miami has struggled in this building to get any kind of cushion. If Charlotte plays physical, controls the boards and doesn’t turn the ball over live-ball to give Miami momentum, they will stay close for four quarters and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 502. Hornets (Southeast Div Game of the Month)

Sacramento has been among the league’s worst defensive clubs all season long, hovering around a 121 defensive rating while still maintaining a perfectly respectable offensive footprint. Defense leaking efficient attempts is ideal when you’re betting an over, because if shot quality is maintained you don’t need a track meet for the total to hit. New Orleans can help facilitate that as well, Zion Williamson availability notwithstanding (they’ve scored meaningfully more in his minutes overall and play at an above-average pace with him).

Pace feels like the other pillar of this bet. Sacramento has lived around the 99–100 possession mark for much of the season, and New Orleans has been fine playing at an uptempo clip when their best offensive players are on the floor. If both teams settle into that range, it doesn’t take much else: Game just kind of plays out normally with average shooting/FT rate and you’re in the 230s. Important because the number in the marketplace has been sitting up in the mid-230s (234.5 or so at some shops).

Speaking of injuries, that can actually play into this over as well depending on who plays. Sacramento will be without significant size and scoring, namely Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine, but also Keegan Murray and De’Andre Hunter. When teams lose their core frontcourt rotation pieces they tend to allow weaker rim protection, second chances, and simply foul more. All great things when rooting for an over. New Orleans has Zion and Trey Murphy III questionable, both of whom would upgrade that team’s ability to score at the rim and shoot from the line. If Zion is out, I think there’s enough punch in this Pelicans lineup that Sacramento’s defensive baseline can still be low enough to reach an efficient number without sky-high shooting.

Bringing it all together, the layup over script is pretty easy to find: New Orleans cooks against a shorthanded Kings defense, Sacramento puts up enough points to keep fans happy in Sacramento and keep their starters in game, and everyone plays at an honest pace that lands somewhere in the 99–101 possession range rather than slowing to a crawl.

Jim's Play: 579. Pelicans/Kings OVER 

The Celtics should be able to cover the spread in this spot for several reasons. For starters, they match up incredibly well against Miami. Boston is a well-rounded team that wins via efficient half-court offense and switching defensive schemes. At TD Garden they often slow the game down in the opening minutes which forces teams to play catch-up basketball. Playing from behind usually leads to contested shots late in the clock, which benefits whichever team is favored by a mid-range number.

Boston also happens to boast excellent depth. They have enough players who can score in the bunch without sacrificing productivity, which allows them to wear down opponents defensively. Should someone like Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown draw extended defensive attention, the Celtics have shooters and pass-first players to open up the score. On defense, they contest the three-point line and have several players who can protect the rim. Mix all that with the fact Boston rarely gives opponents consistent opportunities to go on runs, and you have a team that should be able to cover spreads relatively often.

As far as the game flow goes, if the Celtics have even a marginal rest/home-court advantage they will probably play to their strengths. Boston tends to “double-down” on a lackluster performance by defending with more intensity and making smarter plays late. When they’re favored by multiple possessions, those strengths should lead to a comfortable win and cover. 

Jim's Play: 554. Celtics  

Charlotte can legitimately cover the spread vs Dallas on Tuesday, March 3, 2026 after the matchup projects to become a classic “healthy home favorite vs short-handed road team” situation. The NBA’s official injury report lists Dallas without Kyrie Irving (out), Dereck Lively II (out), Naji Marshall (out), Marvin Bagley III (out) and even has Cooper Flagg (questionable) in danger of not playing. Losing that much size and skill takes away both shot creation and rim protection in the same sentence, presenting an unfavorable recipe to tote on the road. This will be against a Hornets team that’s been playing up to form lately (riding a four-game winning streak) and can justify being priced like the better team for reasons (lined around -11.5 at home in early market reports). Charlotte can just pound the paint minutes if Dallas is missing multiple rotation players. Force Dallas into longer half-court possessions and the game gets away from Dallas with enough gap built over the middle quarters to absorb a couple late buckets.

Jim's Play: 532. Hornets 

Orlando makes sense as a cover candidate because the matchup makes sense as a steady, defense-first home team playing a Washington team that has been bleeding points and struggled to win games on the road. Washington has been on fire lately in the eyes of many (multiple previews mention them being on a losing skid and/or poor road ATS form), and the sportsbooks/trend trackers indicate Orlando has generally done well against Washington at the window in recent meetings. Consider also the availability/rotation advantage: key Wizards contributors are still popping up on the NBA’s official injury report with question marks/outs (Leaky Black is out, Anthony Gill is questionable, etc.) while Orlando’s list is relatively clean outside of Franz Wagner out and Anthony Black probable. Combine those things and the “cover script” looks like this: Orlando locks down defensively and forces Washington into tough half-court looks.

Jim's Free Play: 536.  Magic -15.5  (4:10 PT / 7:10 ET)

Look at the Nuggets–Jazz on Monday, March 2, 2026. There’s a good reason to lean Over in this spot because the market tells us it’s going to be a high-possession/high-efficiency game and the roster tells us that Utah will be more defensively vulnerable than they can afford to be against Denver. The total is parked up in the mid-240s (some sportsbooks have 243.5 while others are even higher), which feels huge until you realize that Denver is capable of erupting offensively whenever Nikola Jokic is cooking and the players currently available to Utah will weaken the paint and the back line. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler were out on Utah’s last NBA injury report, and both guys play major roles in terms of size/defense. If they’re out again on Monday, Denver should have more room to operate in the half-court (post ups, cutters, corner threes) and Jokic will have more opportunities to utilize his passing to create great looks for his teammates. As for Denver, Jokic logged another massive line (35/13/9) on Sunday, March 1 and Denver tends to remain efficient when he’s heating up, even if their pace slows down. Lastly, Utah can shoot enough threes to help keep their scoring afloat; they’re averaging nearly 112 points per home game this season and they still managed to score 105 against New Orleans on March 1. If Denver’s defense isn’t switching with 100% intensity because of fatigue or rotation crunches, the Jazz should have no problem reaching 110+ in this spot. All these parts work together to create an “Over script” that’s pretty simple: Denver scores efficiently because they don’t face reliable rim protection from Utah’s frontcourt, Utah makes enough three-pointers to avoid drying up and the final score is enough to cover most posted totals.

Jim's Play: 527. Nuggets/Jazz OVER 

The Clippers have a great opportunity to cover the spread (expected to be around -8.5) vs the Pelicans this Sunday for several reasons tied to matchup and scheduling. LA hosts this game at Intuit Dome while New Orleans plays the second night of a back-to-back coming from Utah. Historically speaking, those are the types of games where legs get tired late and mistakes pile up on defense. Adding to the concern for the Pelicans is that Zion Williamson exited Saturday’s game with an ankle injury and will likely be sidelined here as well. Trey Murphy III has also been banged up recently with a shoulder injury and his availability could be up in the air on game day. Both players are two of New Orleans’ best creators and there won’t be much behind them if either are sidelined.

As for the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard should be activated from the injury report and gives LA a legitimate half-court closer who can create his own shot efficiently when games slow down to a possession game. Los Angeles has been nursing injuries and in 2024 have lost a couple of games outright after being installed as road favorites. However, on a purely defensive basis the Clippers should still be able to contain the Pelicans. The matchup/efficiency splits grade the Clippers as a top 10 defense by points allowed and an above average rebounding team. Offensively, New Orleans hasn’t profiled as great at generating offense from shooting or driving compared to league averages this season.

The cover script is fairly simple. Los Angeles pressures in the half court, outworks opponents on the glass, and uses Kawhi Leonard to ice the game if the Pelicans threaten to make a comeback. On a back-to-back, even being at full strength it’s tough for teams to score with consistency over 48 minutes. If New Orleans is without Zion and possibly Trey Murphy III it could spell disaster late and turn what would be a close game into a Clippers win by 10–14 points.

Jim's Play: 520. Clippers 

Detroit should cover -7.5 against Cleveland on Friday, Feb. 27, 2026 because this matchup is shaping up as a significant depth and availability issue for the Cavs. Donovan Mitchell is OUT for Cleveland per the official NBA injury report with a groin strain, while Darius Garland is OUT, James Harden is questionable with a thumb fracture and other rotation pieces like Dennis Schröder and Keon Ellis are questionable as well. Depth doesn’t matter against any team, but it’s especially crucial when you play against one of the league’s best because Cleveland’s formula for keeping games within reach typically involves having enough on-ball creation to minimize long scoring droughts. Without Mitchell and Garland and if Harden is limited or inactive, Cleveland will need its patchwork guard rotation to generate offense on the road,  a scenario that historically leads to empty possessions and low-quality looks at the basket.

Detroit also comes into this game with both recent form and identity that bettors can trust to carry over to covers as a favorite: they’re 43-14 overall while playing elite defense, and they defeated Oklahoma City 124-116 behind two efficient outings from Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, showing that they can score on quality opponents as well. Plus, while I’m admittedly hesitant to lay points indiscriminately, the Pistons have gone 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games, so they’ve been meeting or exceeding expectations for the majority of their schedule. Bring it all together and the “cover script” for this game is pretty straightforward: Detroit’s D forces Cleveland into longer, more difficult possessions, the Cavs’ depleted backcourt can’t keep up and Detroit’s consistent offense finds ways to create separation down the stretch even if the game is close to start.

Jim's Play: 556. Pistons (NBA Central Div Game of the Month)

Both teams are right around the league average in scoring pace these days with LA sitting around 115–116 PPG and Phoenix scoring about 112 PPG, so the teams profiles alone get us to this total quite easily if the game happens at an average-to-high tempo. Both teams also project in the 101+ possessions range in this matchup, which further pushes things toward the Over because more possessions = more shot attempts = more transition baskets = more free throws. L.A. ATTACKS THE RIM AND GREEN PIECES efficiently off LeBron pressure/full court Luka playmaking and Phoenix has capable half-court shot creators which allow them to keep buckets flowing even when the game slows down. DEFENSIVE MATCHUP DATA indicates that there should be “give” on paint/scoring frequency, three-point volume, and free throw rate. Rotation/injury impacts lean toward more offense as well (ex. If LA is without a wing defender or rolls with more offense-minded lineups), and we’ve seen this series CLEAR TOTALS already (previous meetings have ended up in the 230+ range).

Jim's Play: 551. Lakers/Suns OVER 

I'll be looking at the Denver Nuggets to cover here on Wednesday vs. Boston. Let’s start with the schedule: Boston has to come into Denver on the second night of a back-to-back and had to play Phoenix on Tuesday before traveling to Denver and dealing with the atlitude of the Mile High City. Boston will also be without Jaylen Brown according to multiple injury reports, and they list Jayson Tatum as out as well. That is a MASSIVE blow to Boston’s ability to score and create shots against Denver in a tough road environment. Denver isn’t healthy either (most recently Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have been ruled out and Jamal Murray is questionable) but assuming Murray is out, Denver’s offense at home led by Nikola Jokic should be incredibly tough for a shorthanded Boston team to defend for 48 minutes. Denver also won January 7th’s meeting 114-110 and Boston has generally been able to compete with Denver in their last several matchups against each other. All things considered: If Denver gets solid guard play from their teammates of Jamal Murray and avoid turnovers spells, they have every reason to expect to win by a healthy margin and cover in that -4 to -5 range against a depleted Boston team. 

Jim's Play: 534. Nuggets 

I like Minnesota to cover against Portland on Tuesday for a few reasons. First, this is the perfect bounce-back spot against a Blazers team that not only looks like they’re on upset alert but could very well be without a key rotation player. Recent news coming out of Portland has revealed Deni Avdija was ruled out for tonight’s game with a back issue. Avdija is a big part of their scoring and playmaking abilities as well as two-way balance, so Minnesota should have a slight advantage if they’re without him. Minnesota also dropped a tough one to Philadelphia on Monday, so Wolves-specific sites around the state have been advertising tonight’s game against Portland as must-win with an emphasis on defensive focus/urgency. This quickly turning into a tight Western Conference playoff race, Cover against Portland tonight and reset the challenge. Finally, Minnesota can actually cover the point spread based on recent meetings. The Wolves beat Portland 133-109 back on Feb. 11 and have won the first two contests against Portland this season, showing they can absolutely explode for wins when their offense is clicking. Road favorites are never guarantees, but if Minnesota limits their opponents on the perimeter, controls the boards, and exploit Portland’s weaker rotation, the Wolves will cover on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 521. Timberwolves (NBA Northwest Game of the Month)

The San Antonio Spurs take on the Detroit Pistons here on Monday, Feb 23.  Detroit is only a slight favorite despite their elite record to date which further indicates the market thinks San Antonio is still pretty live in this spot.  If we dig into why the Spurs can win here, their current form and defensive profile are the biggest reasons to buy in. San Antonio rolls in at 40-16 on an eight-game winning streak and local coverage is framing this game as a measuring-stick contest for a team that has arguably been hitting their stride and playing with consistency as of late. Both of those factors matter in a short spread game because teams that are in rhythm tend to execute better late in games (on the road especially).

San Antonio also projects as having a significant matchup advantage when it comes to the areas that typically decide close games: rebounding, ball security, and rim protection. Local coverage points out that the Spurs are one of the leagues best rebounding teams while Detroit tends to rely on forcing turnovers to create extra possessions. If San Antonio can avoid giving Detroit second chances and manage to take care of the basketball, they have a chance to neutralize one of their opponent’s biggest advantages on the floor.

Star impact and overall two-way upside is another area where San Antonio holds the edge. Victor Wembanyama should help San Antonio protect the paint, limit Detroit’s second chance opportunities, and force them to alter their shot quality while simultaneously posting high-end scoring and rebounding numbers of his own. When games come down to winning the final 5 minutes in a near pick’em, having that kind of star power should lift San Antonio’s floor and open up the door for covers/win.

Lastly, San Antonio’s availability looks good; their entire core appears to be available. Detroit will be without Isaiah Stewart (suspension) which could become a factor with both teams typically liking to play physical in the frontcourt and in terms of depth/energy minutes.

If the Spurs can simply rebound at will, avoid turnovers, and allow Wembanyama to anchor the defense down low, they should have a good chance to win tonight on the road in Detroit. 

Jim's Play: 573. Spurs

Portland can legitimately cover the spread on Sunday versus Phoenix as the Suns are quickly becoming depleted on the backcourt and wing positions. Phoenix suffered a loss to Dillon Brooks who suffered a fractured left hand on Saturday night and is expected to miss an extended amount of time. Devin Booker will miss at least one week due to a hip strain. Booker and Brooks combine for 53 points per game and taking them out of the Suns lineup drastically reduces their scoring ability and shot creation. This also plays more into Portland’s hands considering Phoenix played in double overtime just 24 hours earlier against Orlando.

For Portland’s side of things, covering isn’t rocket science: they don’t need to play perfect basketball, they simply need to avoid getting blown out by a Phoenix team without its two best scorers. Spot-wise, available matchup listings have Portland at 27-30 while Phoenix is 33-24, meaning we’re not at a talent disparity where a shorthanded favorite should automatically run away with the game. Portland is not healthy either, but the key swing factor is that Deni Avdija is only questionable on their injury report. While there’s no guarantee that Avdija plays, it at least gives the Blazers a chance at having another playmaker on the floor. The Blazers can more than likely replace Avdija’s production between themselves, but Phoenix losing Booker/Brooks is considerably harder to overcome.

Game script is the biggest angle in this one as the factors above lean towards this not being a blowout in favor of Phoenix. The Suns losing so much scoring, combined with playing heavy minutes just 24 hours earlier against Orlando, means that Portland has a chance to hang around in this game. The longer it stays close, the better Portland’s chances are at covering the spread. An underscored game favors the underdog as every possession counts more, and if Portland knocks down some timely threes, they can keep the scoreboard within reach. If Portland plays efficiently with the basketball and its best players produce, the Blazers have a chance to cover and even outright win this game.

Jim's Play: 567. Trailblazers 

I'll be looking at the Phoneix Suns to win and cover the small number in the early NBA game this Saturday against the Orlando Magic. The Suns are a small home-favorite spot (around Suns -2 or -2.5), so they do not need to win by a big margin to cash. The biggest edge is Orlando’s availability, with Franz Wagner out, which removes a major scorer and playmaker and lowers the Magic’s offensive ceiling on the road. If Jalen Suggs is limited or unable to go, that puts even more pressure on Orlando’s backcourt and hurts their perimeter defense. Even with Phoenix dealing with its own injuries, the market is still pricing the Suns as the favorite at home, which suggests there is enough respect for their remaining scoring and matchup edge. In a game like this, home court, urgency, and late-game shot-making usually matter, and if Orlando has one of its usual scoring droughts without a full lineup, Phoenix is in a good position to win by enough to cover a short number.  Phoenix’s urgency is high in a tight West race, and recent coverage notes they are trying to stabilize after roster/injury disruption, which can lead to a strong bounce-back effort at home.  Take the Suns here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: 540. Suns 

I like the Minnesota Timberwolves here on Friday despite a high line of around -13 points. The game leans towards the Wolves strengths and Dallas is heading into the worst case scenario. Wolves have been a reliable team all season long at home and overall (34-22), boasting one of the league’s best offenses (119.7 ppg) and a defense that has held up its end of the bargain (114.8 oppg). Dallas has been the complete opposite this season (19-35), surrendering way too many points (117.4 oppg), which spells disaster against a Wolves team who can score from everywhere and run teams off of their legs. Couple that with the fact that the injury/reserves factor leans Minnesota's way: many previews state Dallas have a slew of guys listed on their injury report while Minnesota has one guy listed as questionable, which tends to show up late in games when legs are dead and the dog can't keep up defensively. Last but not least, if Minnesota shoots close to their season averages, they should win: they've shot around 48% as a team while Dallas hasn't held opponents to good enough shooting percentages to give their defenders rest.

Jim's Play: 528. TimberWolves 

San Antonio is a strong play to cover against Phoenix on Thursday as the matchup plays to how the Spurs have won lately and the number is still very much playable. The line opened around San Antonio -7.5 at home but this isn’t even really a “home” game for San Antonio since it’s being played at the Moody Center in Austin. The Spurs have taken these games very seriously in Austin lately and brought real juice. More importantly, Phoenix is extremely shorthanded with Dillon Brooks out (suspension) and Grayson Allen and Cole Anthony out. That takes away scoring, perimeter defense, and depth against a Spurs team that will make you play four quarters of basketball with pressure. San Antonio also comes in with clean bill of availability compared to Phoenix and their full core is available, including Victor Wembanyama, who’s healthy and playing steady minutes again. He gives the Spurs a defensive anchor and a mismatch on both ends of the floor. Finally, San Antonio comes into this 38-16 and riding a six-game win streak with several of those victories coming by margin, which is something to consider when you’re laying points because you want to know a team can finish teams instead of letting them hang around late.

Jim's Play: 514. Spurs -7.5 

A few scenarios lead to Cavaliers–Nets going over the total on Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. For the most part, they revolve around Cleveland’s offense coupled with a Brooklyn lineup that’s slightly compromised defensively. The Cavs have been one of the league’s most efficient scoring teams for a while now, and even this season they’re near the top of the league in points per game and offensive efficiency, which bodes well for a “one team can do a lot of the work” over profile. Nic Claxton is also out for Brooklyn, weakening their ability to defend the interior and rebound, so it’ll be easier for Cleveland to turn drives and paint touches into layups, free throws, and kick-out threes. The teams’ last meeting went 131–124 Cleveland, so we already know this matchup can produce points. That total won’t be hit every game, but that type of game script means even a modest second-half comeback can clear a regular NBA total. Brooklyn’s profile as a whole (big underdog, inconsistent defense) also tends to lead to a “keep shooting to stay close” game tempo, which is another boost for the over because you get more quick possessions and avoid grind-it-out segments.

Jim's Play: 503. Net/Cavaliers OVER 

Portland/Minnesota lands cleanly in the over column tonight as both offenses will play in rhythm while their defenses have provided value in recent weeks. Portland's offense erupted for 122 points on excellent ball movement and volume from deep. When the Blazers play up tempo, their games typically get high early. Minnesota scored 138 points thanks to an 81 point first half showing how lethal they can be when attacking downhill early in the shot clock. Both teams share a similar recipe entering this game, with the Timberwolves showing top tier efficiency and elite transition production. Multiple scorers should create problems against a Portland defense that has struggled away from home and consistently allows clean looks and second chance opportunities. These teams have also trended high in recent years, with Minnesota rarely finishing outside of the 110–120 range versus this defense. Combine Minnesota’s ability to set the tempo and Portland's inconsistent defense leading to extra possessions, this one should play fast and finish higher than the number indicates.

Jim's Play: 543. Trail Blazers / TWolves OVER 

The over on this game makes sense tonight because the matchup naturally inflates possessions/high-quality looks and the number is priced in a range where it can be gotten to even if only one side really explodes. We’re seeing Pacers–Knicks totals around 224.5 at most books.  First, the pace/possession profile of this game ticks in the direction of the over. Despite Indiana’s season taking a turn towards awfulness, the Pacers have played faster basketball recently and when they match up with a team that can both punish the glass and manufacture offensive rebounds - like New York - you often end up getting inflated shot volume compared to an average Knicks game. Probably the biggest piece of this game that tilts the totals towards the over is New York’s knack for offensive rebounding this year (especially at home), which leads to second chance buckets and “invisible” possessions that totals tend to struggle pricing in.

Second, the injury reports actually suggest that both teams score efficiently tonight. Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and rookie Johnny Furphy (ACL), and then have a few rotation players listed as questionable including T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith. When a team loses its primary creator your offense often gets uglier, but it can also become more simplistic: more early-clock action, more straight-line drives, and more shot attempts overall before the defense is able to get set. Meanwhile, New York has enough home court shot creation to hypothetically post up more than half the total themselves, which is why we’re comfortable seeing a mid-220s number even with Indiana dealing with injuries.

Third, the implied game script leads to efficient late-game scoring. New York is laying huge odds on the Knicks, which means that there will likely be “foul-and-free-throw” endings if the Pacers hang around the number with under a minute to play. Even if the game is mostly in hand, you can still get over if you get two empty defensive possessions and a free-throw parade at the end of the game. NY’s recent form combined with Indiana’s propensity to allow games to get away makes that outcome feel live.

I'll take the OVER here tonight, even in a Knicks blowout win.

Jim's Play: 521. Pacers/Knicks OVER 

If you’re looking for a reason to back the New Orleans Pelicans to cover on Monday, February 9, 2026, the biggest starting point is the spot and the health. Sacramento Kings are coming in battered and in a bad rhythm, and they’re also playing on the second night of a back-to-back after losing at Cleveland on Sunday (and that loss made it 12 straight for Sacramento). On today’s official NBA injury report, Sacramento lists multiple rotation guys out (including Malik Monk and Keegan Murray), with Domantas Sabonis marked questionable, while New Orleans’ report is comparatively clean. That’s the kind of setup where the more stable roster usually plays with cleaner spacing, fewer forced minutes, and a more predictable rotation late.

Matchup-wise, New Orleans has a very clear way to score in this one: get downhill and live in the paint. Season matchup profiles have the Pelicans rated No. 1 in points in the paint, and Sacramento has been one of the softer teams defending inside (they also sit near the bottom in points allowed overall). That’s a great recipe for covering because paint offense travels and it’s less volatile than relying on a hot 3-point night. If Sabonis is limited (or sits), it also makes it harder for Sacramento to stabilize the half-court offense and control the glass, two things you’d normally want from a road underdog trying to hang around.

Finally, this is a solid “effort spot” for New Orleans at home at Smoothie King Center. Even if neither team is having the season they wanted, this is the kind of opponent (injured, slumping, tired) you can pressure from the opening tip, push the pace, attack the rim early, and force Sacramento into jumpers and late-clock possessions. And if the spread is in the typical short range you often see in games between two struggling teams, the combination of health + rest edge + paint scoring advantage is exactly what you want on the side you’re backing.

Jim's Play: 510. Pelicans 

I’m fine taking the Over in Pelicans–Timberwolves on Friday because of why the baseline game is inflated to begin with: the total is around 236.5. New Orleans has been one of the league’s most generous defenses when it comes to Overs allowed (120.96 games per game) this season, so even when they’ve faced middling offenses they’ve still managed to get into the 120s. Minnesota has the sort of lead scorer that can take it into track meet territory by himself: Anthony Edwards is putting up 29.7 ppg and the Wolves offense has been fantastic with him on the floor (118.4 offensive rating with Edwards in the game). The matchup also bodes well for easy paint points/breakdowns: team tracking data has the Pelicans allowing near the league’s worst number of points in the paint (52.7). That spells good things for efficient offense and limiting empty trips. Then there’s the injury/availability aspect tilting things further toward fewer stops: New Orleans is without Jose Alvarado (out, did not travel with team) and Dejounte Murray (out), guards who matter most when engaged on-ball or at the point of attack. Minnesota might have a couple names on their injury report, but they’ve recently added another playmaker/scorer in Ayo Dosunmu who should help them maintain scoring pressure (15.0 ppg, 45.1% from three last season, via Reuters). Combine all that and you get a Wolves offense that can easily reach a high number and a Pelicans team that only needs to “facilitate” in the 110s to top the posted total.

Jim's Play: 537. Pelicans / Twolves OVER 

Dallas and San Antonio meet here on Thursday and I'm looking at the Mavs in this “competitive rivalry game” rather than an easy Spurs cover. It’s the I-35 in-state rivalry where both games tend to be physical than normal, emotional than normal, and closer than normal late as neither side wants to look like they got punked by their neighbor. Combine that with San Antonio playing in a back-to-back coming off an Oklahoma City game on Wednesday, Feb. 4 and the path to the cover becomes even clearer: fatigued legs at night tip always manifest themselves most on defensive closeouts, transition defense, and late-game shot-making, all of which are apt to decide exactly where a 6–10 point spread ends up on the scoreboard (in one- or two-possession territory).

The final reason Dallas is live to hang around is just the math of what the number asks them to do. Even if San Antonio is the better team this year (which they probably are), -6.5 still dictates San Antonio winning by multiple possessions on the road, which is a tough ask in a rivalry game where you know the home teams urgency is going to be through the roof. If Dallas can simply play decent enough defense (limit turnovers and easy San Antonio runouts) and make this a half-court game, they don’t actually need to “outplay” the Spurs for 48 minutes to win — they just need to avoid getting absolutely destroyed by the Spurs during one potential fatigue-fueled segment (like when a back-to-back team goes on a 5-minute blitz). And if it’s close late, easy points will always be there in the form of backscreens and free throws knowing this game should have a “decent” scoring pace.

Jim's Play: 526. Mavericks

I look for a Golden State cover here on Tuesday Night vs Philadelphia. First off we get value with the line value but also lean towards the back-to-back favorite due to situational and matchup factors working against the Sixers. The Warriors have the schedule/math edge as usual even with Stephen Curry scheduled to be inactive. Curry is sidelined again due to patellofemoral pain syndrome. Jonathan Kuminga is also out so Golden State won’t have as much margin for error if they want to cover. However, betting on Warriors  to cover their 3-point spread is reasonable because they don’t need to blow out Philly for 48 minutes, they just need to win by 2 possessions. Philadelphia has the scheduling disadvantage as they played Monday night in Los Angeles and raced out to an early lead. The 76ers will head back on the road to play a rested Warriors team. Back-to-back travel can manifest itself late in games as teams miss wide open threes, have slower defensive rotations (closeouts), and simply lack explosiveness defensively. Those are the exact symptoms of a short favorite “covering” at home.

Looking at the matchup specifically, Golden State’s path to covering the spread is fairly simple: win the possession game and force Philadelphia to play half-court basketball. The Sixers also will be without PG just serving his suspension so Philadelphia is missing a dynamic two-way wing who can create his own offense and guard a tough defensive assignment. George’s absence should allow Golden State to help off of Maxey and make someone else beat them. The Warriors can still get good looks without Curry via pace, cutting, and ball movement, and their homecourt defense should be good enough to prevent Philadelphia from blowing the game open if they bring energy on that end. When a game is lined for close to one possession, Philadelphia having back-to-back road legs, PG being sidelined, and Golden State being able to execute at home provides the Warriors with a real path to “win by 4–8” and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 576. Warriors

Starting with the matchup math, the market is essentially asking the Clippers to win a nail-biter (most books have them listed around -2.5 to -3), which is a playable “cover lane” when the opponent is shorthanded. Sixers are without Paul George due to league suspension, and Joel Embiid is probable due to managing an ankle injury. That last part still matters because even if he plays, it could limit his minutes, explosiveness, and aggressiveness they play him on both ends (how much they run offense through him).

On a pure basketball matchup basis, Clippers’ identity over their last handful of games has been physicality: control the boards, own the paint, and turn the game into a possessions battle where the opponent has to make shots against a set defense. They did just that to bully Phoenix by 24 (win the rebounding battle 63-35 and score 64 points in the paint), and that kind of interior dominance tends to carry from game-to-game because it’s predicated more on effort, size, and scheme (as opposed to shooting nights). If they bring anywhere close to that kind of rebounding attention again it puts Philly in unfavorable second chance math (disadvantageous to the dog) and limits the Sixers opportunities to go on consecutive scoring bursts you need to come away with an upset on the road.

My last reason to like the Clippers - winning straight up and covering - is that the spread doesn’t require them to be perfect. When betting against a short number, you’re mostly betting that Clippers’ healthier, deeper roster wins the “winning time” moments. Even if Embiid plays they’re missing a top-of-the-rotation wing creator/defender in George and that tends to matter late in games when possessions are tight and you need your second superstar to create offense/get stops. Clippers also have recent form on their side (they’ve found their groove after a slow start to the year) and they’re playing at home. Altogether, the game being close and Clippers’ advantage on the boards/paint combined with Philly’s diminished firepower feels like a recipe for a 4-8 point cover type finish.

Jim's Play: 558. Clippers 

I’ll be riding Oklahoma City Thunder to win and cover on Sunday night at the Denver Nuggets, and my reasoning begins with how OKC is able to dictate the style of play in this game. At the matchup number (Thunder 6 to -7.5), you’re essentially asking OKC to win by multiple possessions, and Oklahoma City is the type of team that can create separation without needing to shoot lights out: they attack/closeout on the ball-handlers relentlessly to force mistakes and convert defense into easy buckets, which is the fastest way to build a lead in an away game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander provides the team with the late-clock trump card as well, and Isaiah Hartenstein returning helps lock down their interior minutes so they don’t have to ease up defensively in the later stages.

Denver’s injury/availability concerns create a tangible “cover path” for OKC even without them being at full strength. Nikola Jokic is listed as probable after continuing to ramp up during the latter half of Denver’s last couple games while coming back from a knee bone bruise, but Denver is also short a handful of players on the wing/forward spots that help them both defend and efficiently close out possessions: Aaron Gordon is out, Cameron Johnson is out, and Christian Braun is doubtful while Jamal Murray is only listed probable. This is important because OKC does not need to “stop Jokic” in order to cover this game – they just need Denver’s supporting cast to struggle to score, limit Denver’s easy baskets in transition, and win the turnover/extra-possession game. Despite OKC’s absence of Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, the overall theme of how they can cover the spread still exists: lock in on defense to open up the game, get ahead, and let SGA go get buckets while Denver struggles to match their scoring punch late in a game where they may lack defensive versatility/depth to keep up.

Jim's Play: 549. Thunder 

The Bulls can win and cover Wednesday despite playing at Indiana because the line is setup like it’s going to be close (Bulls -2, total ~235.5–236.5), but the Pacers don’t have Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles tear), which normally allows them to maintain some semblance of offense for 48 minutes. His ability to create for others opens up so much of what the Pacers try to do, so when he sits the offense often flattens into more isolated creation/playmaking and tougher looks down the clock. Both are bad against Chicago because the Bulls can score in the half court and aren’t required to play perfectly to win by a bucket or two.

The injury math also works in Chicago’s favor when it comes to who can “weather the storm” better in a choppy game. Indiana is also without Obi Toppin, has Jarace Walker questionable and will be thin on the frontcourt glass while trying to protect the paint. Chicago is missing some rotation players too (Josh Giddey out biggest name), but Indiana just losing Haliburton hurts more when the game is on the line late because he is their lead creator and a huge piece of their transition/gameflow equations.

The Bulls are just playing better hoops too heading into Wednesday. Chicago just had its 4 game win streak snapped at the hands of the Lakers, but they scored points and were in the game late in a high-possession affair. Indiana meanwhile got blitzed by Atlanta on Sunday and another example of their defense having trouble when it gets bogged down in offensive possessions/exacerbated by turnovers/poor pace management. Against a mid-230s total, a few extra empty trips or two breakdowns on defense can be game winners/losers.

Chicago should cover because even without Giddey they’ll make enough shots to stay ahead for most of the game, and Indiana will shoot themselves into an early hole or take a knee late without Haliburton. 

Jim's Play: 545. Bulls 

Portland sits primed to beat the spread against Washington on Tuesday night due to the nature of the matchup between both team talent and recent form. Blazers currently sit at approximately a 23-24 win pace while the Wizards are at 10-34. First and foremost, Portland’s defense has noticeably improved over the past few weeks. Blazers have been significantly better on that end of the floor in January and tracking has them defending like a playoff fringe team rather than a lottery team lately, especially in terms of opponents shooting free throws. This is key against Washington because they’re already hard-capped in their ability to create efficient half-court offense, and they don’t have leeway to miss shots without drawing fouls.

The Wizards also are thinning out as players hit the injury report. Officially, Marvin Bagley is out and Bilal Coulibaly and Khris Middleton are both listed as questionable to play, among other rotation players. Either player sitting or even playing limited minutes tilts Washington’s offense to being one-dimensional, and it makes it hard for them to keep up for 48 minutes.

Even with injuries of their own recently keeping Deni Avdija out and other names being banged up, Portland has demonstrated an ability to hang with teams because they defend and rebound, and they can create enough offense through various options. Washington is a good opponent to capitalize on that and turn steady pressure into an insurmountable lead, especially if the Wizards’ bench has to play huge minutes.

Portland’s defense forces opponents into empty trips, they control the boards, and they build a lead in the middle quarters once Washington can no longer score. I look for a Portland cover here tonight in Washington. 

Jim's Play: 529. Trailblazers 

Chicago scores at a top-5 pace this season (about 117.9 ppg), but they also allow almost as many points themselves (about 119.7 ppg). That’s a great formula for the over as Chicago doesn’t just score, they allow their opponents to feel comfortable all game long. Tack on Chicago’s speed on offense (they rank top-5 in pace at around 101.4 possessions per game) and you have more trips up the floor than your average NBA game, which translates to more total points.

Looking at how the Lakers score, the offense checks out from an efficiency standpoint (team offense rating is around 117 this year). Even if Los Angeles isn’t lighting it up from deep, they can manufacture a total like this with good half-court offense and free throws.  If LA hits the free throw line in the high teens/low 20s and Chicago continues to make shots, the over is still very much alive even if it’s not a track meet.

Chicago is without Zach Collins (toe) and may not have Tre Jones (day to day, hamstring). Los Angeles will be without Austin Reaves (calf) while Victor and Lakerpert are noted as other rotation players being questionable. Missing/limited players typically have a larger impact on the defensive end of the floor (communication, scheme, rotational minutes) than they do on offense making shots, and that inherently leans towards the total going up.

Long story short: Bulls pace + Bulls defense is why this plays as an over and with 237.5 on the board you’re essentially betting that Chicago turns this into a high-scoring affair where both teams play through long stretches where they trade buckets instead of trying to create stops.

Jim's Play: 523. Lakers/Bulls OVER 

Charlotte being -3.5 at home feels like a “who’s available” line and this one sets up pretty well for the Hornets to cash that ticket if Philly is legitimately short-handed. Biggest reason is simple: Joel Embiid and Paul George are both OUT for Philly to manage knee injuries, which takes away their inside scoring, rim pressure, and a ton of half-court creation on the wing.

In Embiid and George’s absence, Philly’s offense really revolves around Tyrese Maxey and small, perimeter-oriented play. Sure, that can result in buckets, but those lineups are also susceptible to wild scoring swings and a tougher time earning “easy” baskets at the rim/fouling late. Philly’s defense also takes a hit without Embiid’s presence around the basket and George’s versatility to switch onto big wings/high-usage players.

Charlotte just needs to run and attack the basket against a shorter Philly rotation, forcing mismatches for 48 minutes. They’ve shown home scoring punch recently and are coming off a 119–115 victory over Washington, which is exactly the kind of game flow that favors the Hornets when they’re controlling the pace and getting production from everyone.

They even have a schedule/location advantage. The tip was moved up to 3:00 p.m. ET because of the impending winter storm, which threw Philly’s normal prep out the window with weather and travel concerns. Games at weird times generally favor the home team’s familiarity with its arena and bench, let alone when the visiting team is without its stars.

Combine all that and I like Charlotte’s chance to cover for Embiid-less lineups running with more pace + home atmosphere + less lineup disruption. If the Hornets beat Philly in the non-Maxey minutes and prevent them from getting into a half-court, grind-it-out kind of game, they should not only win, but cover the -3.5.

Jim's Play: 518. Hornets 

Detroit is laying a big number for a reason. The Pistons enter the day as one of the league’s top teams and are at home against a Sacramento squad that has struggled defensively and has been inconsistent on the road. Books opened Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite , which signals a major gap in power ratings. With Detroit’s elite efficiency and Sacramento’s defensive volatility, the Pistons are positioned to control this matchup wire-to-wire.

Take: 502. Pistons 

Detroit has a strong case to win and cover at home because the matchup leans toward the Pistons’ strengths, and the market is only asking them to win by a couple possessions. Tipoff is Friday, January 23, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET (4:00 p.m. PT) at Little Caesars Arena, and the main number is sitting in the Pistons -3.5 to -4.5 range depending on the book. Detroit has been elite this season (32-10) and especially strong at home (17-4), so it’s not a “hope they steal one” spot, it’s simply backing the better, more consistent team in its own building.

The matchup edge starts with Detroit’s defense and physicality, which has been a calling card of their early-2026 run, and it plays well against a Houston team that can get bogged down when the paint is crowded and the game slows. Houston is also still dealing with frontcourt/injury uncertainty: Steven Adams is listed out on the NBA’s official injury report, and the Rockets hadn’t even submitted their full report at the last official update, so there’s real volatility on who’s available and at what capacity. If Houston is limited inside or thin in the rotation, Detroit can punish that with rim pressure and second-chance opportunities—exactly the kind of “extra possessions” that turn a close game into a 6–10 point win.

Finally, Detroit’s cover path looks even cleaner if Cade Cunningham plays (he’s been listed as questionable in injury roundup coverage). Even if he’s not 100%, Detroit has been winning with depth and defense, but if Cade suits up, it raises the Pistons’ late-game shot creation and free-throw closing ability, two things you want when laying a modest number. With Detroit’s home form, defensive base, and Houston’s uncertainty, this sets up as the kind of game where the Pistons control long stretches and do enough late to win and cover the small spread.

Jim's Play: 546. Pistons  (Interconference Game of the Mnoth)

The Clippers have a great chance to win tonight because the game should play as a depth, defense and half-court execution matchup and the Lakers are coming in short-handed at an important position. Tipoff is scheduled for tonight (Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026) at 7:00 p.m. PT at the Intuit Dome. Availability is the biggest swing: Austin Reaves is out for the Lakers, and Reaves is a big deal because he’s become a premier creator and secondary scorer for the Lakers this season. When two teams that dislike each other play a rivalry game that becomes a half-court grind late in many contests, taking away a ball-handler who can also create his own shot helps the Clippers focus on attacking the Lakers’ best players and forcing more difficult late-clock situations.

The Clippers are without their fair share of players too (Bradley Beal, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr. are out, Kawhi Leonard is questionable), but the primary angle for the Clippers is that their defensive identity should still fuel a win. Multiple betting previews point out that the Clippers have won three games in a row at home, and we’ve already seen the Clippers game plan against the Lakers with great defense this season. If the Clippers force LA to play their game by controlling the glass, limiting transition buckets and making the Lakers beat them with half-court offense without Austin Reaves creating shots, the Clippers winning a tight game at home is fully realistic.

Jim's Play: 544. Clippers 

Memphis has the tools to win and cover this game. The matchup has all the trappings of one that will come down to the wire with home-court and/or momentum as deciding factors, and Atlanta enters trending in the wrong direction. Essentially by betting Memphis at around a -2.5 number you’re betting them to win a tight game at home. Atlanta’s recent downturn is the biggest angle: the Hawks are in the midst of a four-game losing streak and they’ve gotten absolutely blasted by the three-ball in each loss. They opened 0-for-21 from three in their most recent game, which forces their half-court offense to be perfect. Memphis’ defense at home is good enough to give opponents fits if they get hot from three. If the Grizzlies can force several poor shooting stretches from Atlanta and convert them into stops of their own, they can create enough of a cushion to cover.

Health and depth also favor Memphis. Atlanta is without Zaccharie Risacher (out) and several of their depth players are listed as doubtful/out on the NBA’s official injury report. Missing Risacher thins Atlanta’s wing rotation and makes it difficult to keep legs on the floor for a full 48 minutes on the road. Memphis has its own injury issues to navigate (Brandon Clarke out, Zach Edey out, Scotty Pippen Jr. out, Santi Aldama questionable), but the spread accounts for that and Memphis should still have enough firepower to create separation at home by scoring efficiently and forcing Atlanta into tougher shots/longer possessions. As you can see the whole cover scheme is fairly straightforward: Atlanta’s offense is prone to explosive swings right now, Memphis gets to play at home against a near pick’em type line, and if Atlanta shoots poorly again or their limited wing depth catches up with them late, the Grizzlies should win by enough to cover.

Jim's Play: 524. Grizzlies 

Chicago should be viewed as in play to win and cover tonight because this game projects as one that favors the Bulls to win the paint/possession battle and exploit a Clippers rotation that will be missing players. The tipoff is Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 at 8:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. CT) at the United Center.  Chicago has Zach Collins listed as out and Josh Giddey questionable per the NBA’s official morning injury report. The Clippers have yet to submit their report as of this writing, but other injury tracking sites have Kawhi Leonard out for Los Angeles alongside rotational players Bogdan Bogdanovic and Derrick Jones Jr. If Kawhi is ruled out again, that hurts L.A.’s ability to create two-way buckets late in games when shot creation and attacking set defenses becomes crucial.

As far as how the game should be played goes, Chicago has a pretty simple game plan: play through Nikola Vuevi to create high percentage looks at the rim and on short rolls, keep Coby White/Ayo Dosunmu attacking to force the Clippers defense to stay on its heels, and force Los Angeles to win with jumpers. The Clippers will be coming in with plenty of momentum, but they also heavily feature James Harden on offense (including shooting a whopping 27 free throws in their last game), which means one player is tasked with creating a majority of their offense on the road. When that’s the case, there’s always a chance the home team can out-physical their opponent in the fourth quarter and run away with the game thanks to easier buckets and more balance scoring. Chicago’s juice at home plus the expectation they hold an edge in paint/possession plays should allow them to control this game for long stretches. If the Clippers are again shorthanded at the wing, the Bulls should be able to turn a close game into a blowout in the closing minutes.

Jim's Play: 506. Bulls 

The Bulls are set up to cover -6.5 Sunday night. This game completely flips a lot of factors that went against them in Brooklyn. Chicago will have home court advantage while the Nets will be shorthanded and susceptible to regression. Let’s start with the fact that Chicago has been the better team over the course of the season, also boasting a much better homecourt record while Brooklyn has been atrocious on the road (Chicago 12-9 at home vs Brooklyn 5-15 on the road). Regression is bound to happen somewhere for both teams, but that matters with a mid-range number like this because if Chicago plays a relatively clean game they don’t need to shoot lights out to separate themselves, they just need to win the battle of possessions and close games better than they did on Friday.

Availability is the biggest difference between this game and the 112–109 loss back on January 16. Brooklyn was able to survive without Dinwiddie thanks to a game-high 34 points from Michael Porter Jr., however, Porter Jr. is listed out (rest) once again for Sunday, and the Nets are showing other guys as out as well (Drake Powell out, Ziaire Williams out, Haywood Highsmith out). Brooklyn overcame injuries to beat Chicago, but this is a lot to overcome for a Nets team that needed a season-high 19 made threes to beat Chicago in Brooklyn. The Bulls haven’t had Josh Giddey and Zach Collins for most of the season either, however they’ve gotten healthier at the guard/wing spots and should have enough offense from Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and Nikola Vucevic to take advantage of a thinner Nets rotation for 48 minutes. Throwing in the obvious revenge factor after losing to Brooklyn twice this season and the fact that this is starting at 7:00 p.m. ET at the United Center and you have a fairly simple recipe for success: Chicago plays with more urgency to start the game, Nets shotmaking regresses without Porter Jr. and Chicago’s deeper scoring pool at home turns a snoozefest into a Bulls blowout win. 

Jim's Play: 554. Bulls