*3 Star Play Under* The St. Thomas Tommies are so well coached. They do all the fundamental things very well. North Dakota beat the Tommies in stunning fashion in Minnesota, and I think this is a great shot for the Tommies to get revenge and move on. They are laying a big price though, and I think this total is set too high.

St. Thomas has shown the willingness to slow their pace down when they have a solid lead. They do a good job defending without fouling and rebounding on the defensive glass. 

Both North Dakota and St. Thomas are jump shot dependent teams and this game is played at Sanford Center where the under is 30-12 in the last 42 games. This is a tough shooting backdrop.

If it were a regular season game I could certainly understand the total, but it is win or go home in an under venue.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison and Nebraska Omaha Mavericks are the slowest and second slowest paced teams in the Summit League. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass and good at defending without fouling. The regular season meetings between these two went over the total, but they played slowly and the shooting was red hot in those games. It could happen again here, but this gym has been fantastic to the under.

The under is 30-12 in the last 42 Summit League Tournament games played here. It's a big arena and the shooting numbers have trended much lower here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies and Virginia Cavaliers are bitter rivals. I expect the intensity to be high in this contest. 

Virginia is a good offense, but they take a lot of shots from long range. Virginia Tech is 17th in the country in 3 point defense. They should contest those long range jumpers well.

Virginia's defense is very underrated. The Cavs have two elite shot blockers. They are better on defense than offense.

The first game was 55-55 after regulation. This total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Coyotes and Omaha Mavericks square off in the Summit League Tournament on Friday night. This league is famous for having many teams who don't play much defense. Many of the teams play pretty quickly too. 

Still, the under is a whopping 28-12 in the last 40 Summit League games played at Sanford Premier Center where this game will be played. In the 16 games with a total of 151.5 or higher, the under is 12-4 and has cashed by an average of 6.22 points in the 16 game sample size. This is a large arena where shooting percentages have been lower.

Omaha played at the slowest pace of any team in the league in conference action. These two are capable of scoring quite a few, but they are actually much less efficient on offense this year than they were last season. 

I expect the pace to be slower than normal too with this being a win or go home game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sacred Heart absolutely torched the nets in the second half against Iona yesterday. A much tougher test waits here against the Joe Gallo unique zone defense that is great against outside shooters. Sacred Heart takes a bunch of three pointers, and they will be tough shots here. Sacred Heart is 10th in the MAAC in offensive rebounding, and that is the weakness of Merrimack on the defensive boards. I don't think they can take advantage.

Merrimack is the better team and I like them to control the pace here. Merrimack is best in the MAAC in getting to the free throw line, but Sacred Heart is best in the league at defending without fouling. 

The under is 38-18 in the last 56 MAAC Tournament games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two stayed under this total. Northern Iowa is the much better team and they are a clear favorite here. Northern Iowa is elite at taking the air out of the ball when they have a lead.

This is played in a hockey arena in St. Louis and it has a very tough shooting backdrop. The under has been a very profitable bet in this tournament in the last decade.

A slow pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been very good at forcing opponents to shoot the ball from long range. They are forcing more three point jumpers than anyone else in the Summit League. 

Oral Roberts shoots it at just 29.7% from three point range in the league. The Golden Eagles lack the spot up outside shooter that most teams in this league have. 

North Dakota State is the best defense in the Summit League. North Dakota State also plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Oral Roberts is 7th out of 9 teams in tempo. The teams should play at a slow pace here in a win or go home.

The regular season meetings were 144 points and 156 points in double overtime. 

This is a neutral court that has trended heavily toward the under in recent years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 37-17 in the last 54 games played in the MAAC Tournament. Boardwalk Hall hosts this tournament and it is a large arena with tough shooting backdrops. 

Iona has slowed things down and played better defensively toward the end of the season. The Gaels pace at the end of the year looks much different than it did earlier in the season. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all. They are both good at defending without fouling as well.

Sacred Heart is a fast paced team, but they have struggled badly shooting at this venue.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two stayed under this total at least in regulation. They both clearly played to a lower total than this.

Southern Illinois had the best defense in the MVC this year. Open shots will be tough to come by for Drake. The Bulldogs have been slowing the pace down some at the end of the season.

This is played in a hockey arena in St. Louis and it has a very tough shooting backdrop. The under has been a very profitable bet in this tournament in the last decade.

A win or go home game. I like the defenses to show up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Fordham has been a fantastic under team all year. They are a bottom 10 tempo team nationally. They are also very good on the defensive glass and in defending without fouling. Fordham is 305th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Rams go through long scoring droughts on a regular basis.

LaSalle is 299th in the nation in tempo. The Explorers are a horrible 357th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They don't foul much on defense either.

The first meeting between these two was 122 points and just 61 possessions. I think this will be slow and low scoring again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Towson is 345th in overall tempo nationally. The Tigers are also 97th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have been particularly strong on defense in recent weeks. Towson has played 4 of their last 6 games to 63 possessions or slower, so tempo wise they have really dictated the pace lately too.

Stony Brook is 247th nationally in tempo, so they are slightly slower than the average team. Stony Brook is an average team, but they are definitely better on defense than offense.

The last three meetings between these two teams have finished with a combined: 102 points, 125 points, and 126 points.

These two both are good at defending without fouling. A slow pace and the advantage to the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Monmouth Hawks aren't the same team with Kavion McClain in the backcourt. McClain has only played the last six games, but this team looks completely different with the speedy guard in the backcourt. He has scored 14 points or more in all but one of his games, and he is a good passer who gets the team out in transition. Monmouth is a quicker paced team now, and their season to date stats mean less.

Elon is 313th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Phoenix are 110th in offensive efficiency though, and they have had some very high scoring contests. 

The games between these two last year were high scoring and these two are better on offense now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Francis Red Flash are second to last (364th) in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. St. Francis is the worst defense in the NEC. They have allowed 86 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. 

Central Connecticut State is the best offense in the league. They put up 98 points on St. Francis in the first meeting. Central Connecticut has put up 1.10 points per possession or better in six of their last seven games. St. Francis plays at the fastest pace of any team in the league, and they are so weak defensively that the home team should get a lot of open looks. 

St. Francis is good at scoring in transition and that has been a major weakness for the Central Connecticut defense this season. 

The best offense in the league and the worst defense in the league. Central Connecticut has also been the second worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been an under machine this season. They recently slowed VCU down to a 64 possession game that finished 63-59. I don't think this game will finish that low, but this total is high enough that I'm siding with the under again here. 

The under is 11-3 in Fordham's games as an underdog. That's important since it shows they have still been able to slow things down even when they are the perceived weaker team.

VCU is the better team, and they are likely to win this one. Fordham does two things that can make it tough on them though. Fordham is excellent at grabbing defensive rebounds and they do a good job defending without fouling. VCU is usually strong on offense in those areas.

Fordham is often a one man offense and VCU is likely to slow them down nicely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The top of the Sun Belt standings is a hot mess. There are four teams with an 11-6 record including Appalachian State. There are also three teams at 10-7 including Texas State. These games have tons of significance for two reasons. First, obviously the teams up in these spots want to win the regular season title. Second, the seeding for the conference tournament here is critically important since the Sun Belt tournament gives such a massive advantage to the top seeds. It can be next to impossible for teams with worse seedings to make a run through so many days of games.

App State is the best defense in the conference. The Mountaineers are also the slowest paced team in the Sun Belt. They are 356th out of 365 teams in the nation in tempo. They are tops in the league in defensive rebounding percentage and second in FTA/FGA allowed.

Texas State is allowing more than ten points per game fewer on their home floor than on the road. They are 249th out of 365 teams in the country in tempo, so they are relatively slow as well.

With everything on the line in this one, I would expect a strong defensive effort from both teams. I also expect a pretty slow pace here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks have been shutting opponents down at home. In conference play, UT Martin hasn’t had a single game finish with a combined total any higher than 130 points. UT Martin is the slowest paced team overall in the league. They slow things down by mixing up the defenses and keeping their opponents guessing.

Tennessee Tech gave up 86 points to UT Martin earlier this year, but UT Martin had its hottest shooting night of the conference season in that game. UT Martin put up a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession in that game. They are 286th in the nation in offensive efficiency at less than 1.04 points per possession for the season as a whole.

UT Martin’s defense is full of shot blockers, and Tennessee Tech is a very short team that has struggled with getting their shots blocked this season. Tennessee Tech has allowed 52 and 57 points in their last two games.

I like this one to be a game played in the halfcourt.

UT Martin is 10-0 to the under at home this season.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* SIU Edwardsville has been a really good under team this year. They are 16-10 to the under on the season. SIU Edwardsville is the much better team here, and they should control the tempo. SIU Edwardsville is 330th in the nation in overall tempo. They are also 337th in offensive efficiency.

Western Illinois is a bad defense, but SIU Edwardsville has really struggled to get open looks this year. The few times they have had a big lead (like the point spread implies they could here) they have been happy to slow the pace down later in the game.

Western Illinois wants to play slowly, and they rely on getting to the line on offense. SIU Edwardsville is above average at defending without fouling.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are still in the hunt for a CAA regular season title. Charleston's huge improvement on defense is behind their surge of late. Charleston has allowed 0.96 points per possession or less in four straight games. They have allowed 0.97 points per possession or less in seven of their last nine games. 

Hampton is the second slowest paced team in the conference in terms of average possession length on offense. The Pirates are 309th in the country. They work hard to slow the pace down. Charleston has slowed down this year, and some of Charleston's slowest paced games are recently.

This is a really early tip and these have trended slightly toward the under in the long run. With the line move up, I'll go to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots have a history of bouncing back with strong defense coming off a loss. The under is 4-1 in their 5 games following a loss this year. George Mason has dropped three straight, and now they are in a battle for third place in the Atlantic 10. St. Joe's is their opponent in this one and they are tied with the Hawks at 9-5 (Dayton is 10-5 in third place right now).

St. Joe's has been much better on defense this year. The Hawks are on a good stretch defensively. They have allowed 65 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Hawks are first in the league in FTA/FGA allowed. They do not foul much at all. That's important here since George Mason is a team that relies so heavily on getting to the line on offense.

George Mason is 338th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Patriots should be able to slow the pace down here.

The first meeting between these two was 60-52 with a very slow pace of just 60 possessions.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 8th in the nation in average possession length on offense. They are really pushing the pace. Arkansas State has been playing great offensively too. They have put up 1.15 points per possession (rounded) or higher in four straight contests. Arkansas State is 13th in second chance conversion percentage so offensive rebounds are key for them. Southern Miss is 205th in giving up those second chance points.

Southern Miss has been playing quickly of late, and their offense has been rounding into form too. Southern Miss has put up at least 1.01 points per possession in six straight games. 

Southern Miss is first in the Sun Belt in FTA/FGA. They are also 11th on defense in FTA/FGA allowed. They have a lot of games that become foul fests. That includes the first game between these two teams which finishes 93-86. 

Arkansas State and Southern Miss are both strong in transition offense. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors went 26/26 from the free throw line against Siena on Friday night. Both Siena and Merrimack shot above average from the free throw line, and it still took overtime for the game to go over the posted total.

Iona played fast early in the season, but the Gaels have slowed down a lot in recent weeks. Iona is 7th in the league in tempo. They are 266th nationally in offensive efficiency. Iona beat Merrimack 61-60 in the first meeting between these two. That game was played to just 60 possessions.

Merrimack is poor on the defensive glass, but Iona doesn't get many second chances. Iona is second best in the league in defending without fouling, so Merrimack is likely to get to the line less in this game.

Merrimack's defense is 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers are 9th in the NEC in tempo. The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are 10th (out of 10 teams). These two are both playing at an extremely slow pace right now. 

Fairleigh Dickinson has played four straight games that have finished at 125 points or lower. The Knights last two games have been played at 56 and 53 possessions. That last game at 53 was one of the lowest paced games of anyone in the country all season long.

New Haven is 356th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Chargers don't get many second chances, and they are a poor shooting team.

These are the number one and number two teams in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

A very slow pace and barring some much higher shooting percentages than normal I think this stays low.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are 12-2 to the under at home this season. Those 14 games have been under the total by 10.9 points per game on average. Fordham is 358th in average possession length. They are 264th in offensive efficiency. They are 82nd in defensive efficiency. Fordham is 364th out of 365 teams in FTA/FGA. The Rams are top 50 nationally in both defensive rebounding and FTA/FGA allowed. 

Davidson is 348th in overall tempo. The Wildcats road games have gone under the total by an average of 7.3 points per game. 

With neither team getting to the line much and this slow of a pace, I'm going to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wagner Seahawks have been an over machine on the road this year. Their road games have gone over the total by an average of 12.1 points per game. St. Francis is first in the NEC in tempo. They are also awful on defense. St. Francis has allowed 1.12 points per possession or more to their opponent in six of their last seven games. They have given up 86 points or more in five of their last seven games. 

St. Francis is first in the conference in 3 point percentage on offense. Wagner is 10th in 3 point percentage defense. 

These two teams are 332nd and 357th in defensive efficiency. Both teams are good on the offensive glass in league play.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have that unique Joe Gallo zone defense that is such a tough defense to prepare for. Merrimack is 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have multiple shot blockers down low and Siena should have a tough time scoring in the paint against this zone.

Siena is 12th in the MAAC in tempo. The Saints want to play slowly. Siena has scored just 58 and 59 points against Merrimack in the last couple meetings. Those games have been played to 63 possessions (last year) and 54 possessions this year. 

Merrimack is 8-3 to the under when favored. The Warriors have allowed 50.67 points per game in their last three games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are one of the few teams in the MAAC who want to play fast. Sacred Heart is second fastest in the league in tempo. They are also second worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart is first in the MAAC in offensive efficiency on the road (1.136 points per possession). The Pioneers are giving up an insane 1.226 points per possession on the road though. 

Fairfield's Chris Casey prefers his team to play quickly. The first game between these two teams was 92-87. Fairfield just gave up 83 points last game to St. Peter's. 

Sacred Heart takes a ton of three point jumpers. Fairfield is 11th out of 13 in the league in three point defense. 

The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. SIU Edwardsville is great at protecting the paint. They have shot blockers all over the place. SIU Edwardsville blocked 8 shots against Tennessee Tech in their first meeting. 

Tennessee Tech is 210th in overall tempo. They have often played to the pace of their opponent. The Golden Eagles have had a rough time on defense in a couple games and that has skewed their defensive stats in the conference. SIU Edwardsville is 313th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

SIU Edwardsville is first in the OVC in defensive efficiency on the road in conference play. Tennessee Tech is first in defending without fouling.

The first game was just 58 possessions and 62-58. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are playing against a Tarleton State team that is expected to be shorthanded again. Dior Johnson has missed the last six games, and Cam McDowell has missed the last two games for Tarleton. Johnson scores nearly 24 points per game. McDowell is averaging 13.9 points per game. 

Tarleton has struggled badly to score without these guys in the lineup. They have slowed down their pace of play even more lately. Tarleton has scored 65 points or fewer in seven straight games. That includes their last game which went into overtime.

Tarleton gets to the line a ton, but Southern Utah is first in the conference in FTA/FGA allowed. 

I think this number is too high given the Tarleton roster being a big question mark with multiple key guys missing recently and likely at least some of them missing here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are on the bubble, and they need a win here. I expect them to try to rely on their defense. Seton Hall is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They do foul a bit too much, but DePaul is 9th in the Big East in FTA/FGA in conference play. 

DePaul is 56th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and only 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Blue Demons won at home against Seton Hall 67-60. That game scoring was propped up by late fouling too.

Seton Hall is first in the nation in blocked shots percentage. DePaul has had a bunch of shots blocked this year.

A slower pace and a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 11-2 in Fordham's 13 home games this year. Those 13 games have gone under the total by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Fordham is 359th in the nation in average possession length. They are going to control the pace and keep this one at a slow pace throughout. The Rams get very few offensive rebounds, but they are elite on the defensive glass. Fordham doesn't get to the line much at all, but they are very good at defending without fouling.

Loyola Chicago prefers to play slowly as well. The Ramblers have been relying on offensive rebounds and second chances to score, and I don't think they'll get many of those here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are expected to be without leading scorer Jake Heidbreder in this game. He is averaging 17.5 points per game and shooting 89.8% from the free throw line on the season. David Douglas is also out and he averaged more than 7 points per game. 

Wyoming's Gavin Gores is questionable with a hand injury. He's a good offensive big man for the Cowboys.

Wyoming was playing fast earlier this year,  but they have slowed down their pace drastically. The Cowboys have played four of their last eight games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The first game against Fresno was just 63-60 with 61 possessions in the game.

Fresno State is 10th in the MWC in offensive efficiency, but they are third in defensive efficiency. Now, they are expected to be without their leading scorer. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass and are good at defending the long range jumper.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stephen F. Austin has won 18 of their last 19 games. They have won 11 straight contests. Matt Braeuer has done a tremendous job in his first year coaching this team. The Lumberjacks are 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Stephen F. Austin is first in the Southland at defending without fouling. They are second in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is 83rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are third in the Southland in defensive efficiency. They have fouled too much this season, but Stephen F. Austin is bottom 50 in the nation in FTA/FGA. Corpus Christi is 323rd in effective field goal percentage offense. They take too many mid range low quality jumpers. 

The first game between these two was 129 points and that was with 63 free throws attempted. The total has moved up here, and I like it to stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers have been a tremendous over team this year (19-4-1 to the over). Denver is both excellent on offense and terrible on defense. Denver is 76th in offensive efficiency nationally, but they are 353rd in defensive efficiency.

Denver's defensive numbers have looked a bit better in their last couple games. Their opponents are 5/39 (12.8%) from three point range in those two games. I think that is likely less because Denver is playing great defense and more just Denver being fortunate that the opponents were missing good looks in those games.

Omaha has been pouring in the points of late. They have scored 84 and 98 points in their last couple games. The first meeting between these two was 84-82. Omaha isn't quite as bad on defense as Denver, but they are 291st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense has been very good this year, and they have been tremendous in recent weeks. Virginia has allowed just 54.7 points per game in their last three games. 

Virginia is 300th in overall tempo. That is partially because they are mixing up defenses and even playing some zone. Opponents have had to slow down quite a bit against the Virginia defense. 

Ohio State is 221st in overall tempo. The Buckeyes have tended to play to the pace of their opponent during Jake Diebler's time as head coach in Columbus. 

Ohio State shot far under their season averages in neutral site games against West Virginia and N Carolina earlier this year. 

Bridgestone Arena hosts this game, and this is a neutral site that has in the long term trended a bit toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are 10-1 to the over at home this year. The Bonnies have been dreadful on defense this season. They are allowing 1.173 points per possession in league play. On offense, the Bonnies are averaging 80 points per game at home. They are up against a team that wants to run here. The last three games the Bonnies have played have been against slow paced teams.

Duquesne is using pressure to get out in transition and score. The Bonnies transition defense has been poor all year long. Duquesne is 202nd in effective field goal percentage defense, so they aren't very good defensively either. 

The Bonnies are allowing 77.2 points per game at home. The Dukes are allowing 79 points per game at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers host the LIU Sharks on Saturday afternoon. These two teams just played 9 days ago and the final was 60-55. 

LIU is the best defense in the conference by a wide margin. They are giving up just 55.3 points per game in their last three contests. LIU has seen 8 of their last 11 games stay under this total.

New Haven is 353rd out of 365 teams in the country in tempo. They'll do their best to slow this game down as much as possible. 

New Haven is very good on the defensive glass, so they should be able to limit LIU's offensive rebounding prowess better than most teams in this league.

Neither of these teams are very good at getting to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Baptist Lancers have been playing some tremendous defense in WAC play. Cal Baptist has allowed less than 0.99 points per possession in six of their last seven games. Not surprisingly, they have had seven straight games finish with 137 points or fewer in regulation. 

Southern Utah is a weaker defensive team which is why the total is higher here. Still, we've seen these two clash and it be lower scoring three times last year and this year. The last three meetings have seen 136, 117, and 113 points. Southern Utah has been much better on defense at home than on the road.

Cal Baptist is the better team here and they want to slow the pace down. Southern Utah is shooting a lot more long range jumpers in WAC play, and Cal Baptist is only allowing opponents to shoot 26% from 3 point range in conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars force opponents to shoot it from outside. They pack in a zone and extend it out deeper than most zone defenses. South Alabama has forced a higher percentage of opponents shots to be taken from three point range than any other team in the country. 

Southern Miss has slowed their pace down this year. The Golden Eagles on offense rely on getting to the line and shooting it from inside. Southern Miss is shooting a miserable 27.5% from three point range. That is third worst in the country. The Golden Eagles do not match up well against the South Alabama zone.

South Alabama's offense is 250th in offensive efficiency nationally. Southern Miss is 266th. These are two subpar offenses and I think the pace here will be relatively slow. 

Without much higher than average outside shooting, I like the chances of this to stay lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Marist and Merrimack meet in a MAAC battle of two really good defensive teams.

Merrimack is 29th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Joe Gallo is a defensive wizard, and this Warriors unique zone pressure look actually slows the game down and confounds opponents. Merrimack's one weakness is on the defensive glass, but Marist is 353rd out of 365 teams in the nation in second chance conversion percentage. They are a poor offensive rebounding team.

Marist is third in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Red Foxes contest shots very well. They are first in the nation in points per game allowed in their last three games (53.7 ppg allowed). Merrimack is top 15 at 58.3 points per game allowed in the last three games.

Marist is 250th in overall tempo and Merrimack is 343rd. The tempo in this game should be slow throughout.

These two teams have played three times in the past 13 months. The final totals were 121 points, 128 points, and 123 points. I expect something similar here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers are dead last in the ACC in tempo. Clemson is also first in the ACC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.956 points per possession in league play. Clemson is 11th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are only 69th in offensive efficiency nationally. 

Virginia Tech plays at an average tempo. The Hokies have tended to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not. They don't foul much at all on defense. They are a pretty good 57th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia Tech has been hurt by teams who are good on the offensive glass, but Clemson is 16th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage.

Clemson is the better team, and I like them to grab the lead and slow things down in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are a solid under team. They are 301st in average possession length on offense. They are also 357th in the nation in offensive efficiency. At the same time, they are an above average defense. They are 4th in the OVC in defensive efficiency.

Western Illinois is 323rd in the nation in average possession length. The Leathernecks are 359th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have had much lower scoring games at home than on the road. Their defense has been mediocre at home and really weak on the road.

These two have a history of slow paced lower scoring battles against each other. The first meeting this year was 57-55. I don't think this one will be that low, but I do like it to stay under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been a great under team this season. Fordham is great at defending without fouling, and they don't give up second chance points. They are 25th in FTA/FGA allowed and 34th in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. Fordham also plays at a very slow pace. They are 357th out of 365 nationally in average possession length.

St. Joe's is 22nd in FTA/FGA and Fordham almost never gets to the line. St. Joe's is an elite shot blocking team, and Fordham doesn't have good outside shooters. This St. Joe's team is only 289th in effective field goal percentage offense nationally. They are also slightly slower paced than the average team.

A slower pace with neither team getting to the line much. Both defenses are clearly better than the offenses too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacramento State Hornets are playing the fastest of anyone in the Big Sky conference. Mike Bibby is their first year coach, and he has this team fully committed to running all the time. 

Sacramento State has been an offensive machine at home in the conference. They have scored 83, 93, 83, 86, and 104 points in their five home games in Big Sky action. The Hornets offense has been much better in the last month. They haven't had a single game where they put up less than 1.03 points per possession in that stretch. 

Portland State has been up and down on offense this year, but the Sac State defense is pretty weak. Portland State scored 96 in a 96-69 win over Sac State a few weeks ago. 

Portland State is relatively good on defense, but they foul at a very high rate. Sacramento State is best in the conference at drawing fouls, and they are shooting 78% from the free throw line. 

Both teams are good at getting quick points off steals and scoring in transition. A fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have been the best defense in the ACC. They are allowing only opponents to score only 0.96 points per possession. They are 19th best in the nation in 3 point defense. Cal has been putting up a lot of shots from long range. The Golden Bears should find open looks from long range tougher to come by than normal on this day.

Cal has been very inconsistent on offense. They were completely shut down at home by Duke. They were also quieted by Florida State. The Cal defense is top 50 nationally.

Clemson is the slowest paced team in the ACC. Brad Brownell is a defensive minded coach, and his teams are well known for being able to slow things down.

Clemson has seen only one of their last seven games go over this total in regulation, and that game had late fouling and got to just 140 points.

Cal has played two very fast paced teams in N Carolina and GA Tech in the last two games. This game should look a lot different.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stonehill Skyhawks are 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Stonehill hasn't scored more than 65 points in any of their last seven games, and that includes a game that went into overtime. Stonehill has seen each of their last seven games stay under this relatively low posted total. That includes their first game with LIU which finished 66-63. 

LIU is easily the first ranked defense in the NEC. They are allowing just 0.96 points per possession in league play. LIU has allowed 59 points or fewer in five of their last nine games. They have allowed 63 or fewer in eight of their last nine contests.

LIU's offense is mediocre. They rely on offensive rebounds in a big way. Stonehill is 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are best in the NEC in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is second in defensive efficiency in the NEC.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are really bad on offense. Southern Indiana is 361st out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Southern Indiana has been held to 51, 60, and 46 points in three of their last four games. They take a lot of 3 point jumpers, and they aren't good from long range. UT Martin is also 7th best in the nation at defending the 3 point jumper. They are allowing the opposition to shoot only 28.6% from long range.

UT Martin is 320th in the nation in tempo. The Skyhawks are easily first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.931 points per possession in league play. 

Southern Indiana has played considerably slower in recent weeks. They are also third best in the league in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers are 359th in the nation in tempo. They will do their best to slow the pace down as much as possible. New Haven is 350th in the nation (out of 365 teams) in offensive efficiency. This team is a solid under team in general.

LIU has the best record in the NEC thus far this season. They are second in the conference in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.97 points per possession. Their offense is 207th nationally so they are only mediocre. LIU is very good on the offensive glass, but New Haven has been strong on the defensive boards.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen are the best team in this league. Navy is also the slowest paced team in the league. They are easily first in the Patriot League in defensive efficiency, giving up only 0.967 points per possession. 

Navy has put up some big point totals at home from time to time, but on the road their offense has been far less efficient. Their last four road games have finished regulation with the following point totals: 123, 116, 134, and 108 points. 

Lafayette is last in the league in offensive efficiency. It's hard to find a path to success for the Lafayette offense here. They'll have to be making jump shots they normally miss, and they'll be doing it against the best defense in the league. They could only get to 50 points in the first meeting between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense is the best in the Sun Belt. They are only allowing 0.97 points per possession this year. App State's defense is in top form of late. They have allowed 58, 43,63, and 44 points in their last four games. 

App State is 360th in the nation in tempo. They will work very hard to slow this game down. South Alabama is 323rd in tempo, so they prefer a slow game as well.

South Alabama packs in a zone defense and forces teams to shoot the ball from the outside. The Jaguars are second in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency behind only App State. The Jaguars will try to force App State to make 3 pointers here. App State is shooting only 31.9% from 3 point range on the season.

This projects as a slow paced game where it would take above average shooting for it to go over the total. Neither team fouls very much and that is a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Unit Play Under* The Illinois State RedBirds are first in the Missouri Valley Conference in defensive efficiency. Illinois State has been particularly strong defensively on their home floor. They are giving up only 58.8 points per game when playing at home this year. That is fourth best in the nation.

Southern Illinois is on a seven game run of scoring 68 points or fewer in regulation. The Salukis are 232nd in offensive efficiency. They aren't likely to get many second chance opportunities either. The Illinois State RedBirds are fifth best in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. 

Illinois State is 273rd in average possession length, so they'll try to slow the pace here. 

Southern Illinois is third in defensive efficiency in the MVC. They have fouled a bit too much, but Illinois State is only 9th in FTA/FGA in MVC play. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee State Tigers are first in the OVC in offensive efficiency. They are also second in pace of play in the OVC. They are pushing the tempo at every opportunity. 

Tennessee State has seen 158 points or more scored in 6 of their last 10 games. The Tigers have scored 82 points or more in six of their last ten games. I trust them to score here on a Tennessee Tech team that is 10th in the OVC in defensive efficiency. Tennessee State already put up 88 points on the road at Tenn Tech earlier this year. Tenn Tech is allowing 80 points per game on the road for the season.

The Tennessee State defense is mediocre. They have allowed 74 points or more in seven of their last ten games.

The first meeting between these two was 88-76 and there were only 20 free throws in that game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are giving up just 0.942 points per possession in conference play. John Dunne is a defensive minded coach, and the Red Foxes are veteran team that really works hard on that end of the floor. 

Niagara is 362nd out of 365 teams nationally in pace of play. The Purple Eagles get just one shot and nearly never get to the free throw line. They'll have to make the most of their opportunities, and that should be tough against Marist.

Marist is 352nd in FTA/FGA, so they almost never get to the line either. Marist's offense is very streaky.

These two played twice last year and it was 114 in regulation and then 125 in the second meeting.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars have been great at turning games into low scoring hard fought contests. SIU Edwardsville is 340th in the country in tempo. They are 324th in offensive efficiency. They are 13th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Southern Indiana is 360th out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They have actually averaged fewer points per game at home than they have on the road. They are 59th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

The first game between these two was 59-55. I think this will be higher than that one, but I think the total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers beat the Evansville Purple Aces 62-48 in Evansville earlier this year. Northern Iowa is shorthanded right now, and their offense has really been struggling. The Panthers are still excellent on defense though. They are 16th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is 25th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 90th in defending without fouling too.

Northern Iowa is great at controlling the pace of the game, and they are the second slowest paced team out of 365 teams in the nation. Evansville is slightly slower than average as well.

Evansville is 322nd in offensive efficiency. They have been held below 50 points three times in their last seven games.

Both teams are in the bottom 20 in the nation in offensive rebounding. A slow paced lower scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Long Island University Sharks sit at first place in the Northeast Conference. Why? LIU is playing some great defense. LIU is first in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

LIU has seen 6 of their last 7 games stay under this posted total. They have struggled at times with teams who get a bunch of second chances, but Central Connecticut State is 297th in offensive rebounding percentage nationally. 

Central Connecticut State is 308th in the nation in tempo. The first game between these two teams was just 59 possessions (extremely slow), but it got to 162 points thanks to crazy high offensive efficiency. 

The two teams put up 1.43 points per possession and 1.33 points per possession in that first game. That is about as high as you ever see. I expect them to come back down to earth here.

Both teams have trended lower scoring in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have been a good under team under Coach Marty Simmons. Eastern Illinois is 314th in average possession length, so they are playing very slowly. The Panthers are also 354th out of 365 teams nationally in offensive efficiency. They are solid on defense at 114th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Eastern Illinois is 10th in the OVC in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency.

UT Martin is first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing just 0.96 points per possession in league play. UT Martin has seen 5 of their last 7 games finish at 126 points or fewer. They have had only one game top 130 points in their last seven. UT Martin is 324th nationally in overall tempo. 

The first game between these two finished at 126 points, and that was with a slightly quicker pace than I think this game will be played at on Thursday night. 

The under is 5-2 in Eastern Illinois' seven home games this year with the average game going under the total by 6.1 points per game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a good under team. Northern Iowa is bottom five nationally in tempo. They are excellent at defending without fouling. They are 30th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also weak on offense. They just don't have many guys who can go get their own points. 

Southern Illinois does play at a quicker pace, but they are a very solid defensive team. Southern Illinois is 74th in defensive efficiency. They are 225th in offensive efficiency. 

Northern Iowa next to never gets to the line and they don't get second chances.

With the line move up, I have to go to the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Queens Royals have been an offensive machine at home this year. They are averaging 95.3 points per game on their home floor. Queens has scored 85 points or more in six of their last eight games. Central Arkansas has been good on defense at home, but they are allowing 82.6 points per game on the road.

Queens is first in the Atlantic Sun in offensive efficiency. Central Arkansas is second in the Atlantic Sun in offensive efficiency. 

Queens is allowing 83.5 points per game on the season as a whole. They are 311th in the country in defensive efficiency.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are 352nd in the nation in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way on offense. Fordham is also top 25 in the nation in defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds. They are 364th out of 365 teams in the country in FTA/FGA.

La Salle plays very slowly too at 329th out of 365 in tempo. The Explorers rely heavily on getting to the line and getting second chance points. I don't think that will be easy to come by against Fordham.

The pace here should be around 60 possessions. I look for a really slow grinding style.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers are an excellent over team. Denver is 79th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They move the ball well and have plenty of scoring options. Denver is an ugly 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Denver is allowing 87.2 points per game on the season.

North Dakota is allowing 80 points per game. Denver is one of the best offenses they have faced. North Dakota has seen 4 of their last 6 games finish at 166 points or higher. North Dakota is shooting it well from long range in league play.

There's very little defense in this league in general, and Denver games have been consistently very high.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones played very quickly in the non-conference slate, but they have been slowing things down in Big 12 play. Iowa State is still a defensive-minded team under Coach Otzelberger. 

Oklahoma State's offense has been inconsistent in league play.

In the first meeting between these two teams, the final score was 154 points total. The teams combined to shoot 56 free throws and they made 80.4% of those (45 made). That is far above the averages of the two teams. Both defenses have been pretty good at defending without fouling too.

In Iowa State's last 11 games, they haven't had a total within 8 points of this current total. The Cyclones defense should be enough to keep this one under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers defense has been tremendous over the last few weeks. Brad Brownell has always been a defense first coach, and this team is really putting it together on that end. Clemson is first in the ACC in defensive efficiency. They are 15th nationally in defensive efficiency. Clemson is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Offensively, Clemson is a mediocre 68th in offensive efficiency.

Georgia Tech is 33rd nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 191st in effective field goal percentage offense. The Yellow Jackets turn it over a lot on offense.

Clemson hasn't had a game above 144 points in regulation in their last 11 games in a row.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 350th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are 348th in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Eastern Illinois is 321st in the nation in average possession length. They are well known for wanting to slow the pace down a lot under Coach Marty Simmons. Southern Indiana has slowed their pace down drastically in league play. They are averaging just 66 possessions per game in the league. 

Southern Indiana is playing slower than a year ago, but even last year the two meetings between these two teams finished at 124 points and 117 points. 

Eastern Illinois has seen 7 of their last 9 games stay under this total in regulation. 

Southern Indiana takes a bunch of three point jumpers, and Eastern Illinois is holding opponents below 30 percent from long range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a very good defensive team, and they absolutely know how to control the tempo. Northern Iowa is 364th out of 365 teams in the country in tempo. The Panthers are 2nd in 3 point field goal defense. They are 18th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 84th in defending without fouling.

Illinois State is 236th in overall tempo. They are first in MVC play in defensive efficiency. They are 17th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

This should be a slow paced game with very few second chances and trips to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois have two key offensive pieces questionable for this game. Quel'ron House their leading scorer at 13.7 points per game is questionable and he missed last game. Isaiah Stafford averages 7.3 points per game and he is questionable after missing several recent games too.

Valparaiso is 294th in average possession length. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line on offense. As a team they are 348th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Southern Illinois is 216th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Salukis are 72nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Valparaiso is 105th in defensive efficiency.

The first game between these two finished at 145 points. There were a ridiculous 71 free throw attempts in that game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies have been a well oiled machine on offense on their home floor. Utah State has been excellent everywhere on offense of late too. Utah State has scored 93 points or more in four of their last seven games. Utah State has 17th in effective field goal percentage offense nationally. The Aggies are so dangerous because they take great shots and they also follow up those up with second chances so often. They are 2nd nationally in second chance conversion percentage. UNLV is 282nd in second chance conversion percentage allowed.

Utah State is 91st in offense in average possession length. UNLV is 39th in that same statistic. UNLV ranks in the top ten in the country in FTA/FGA and Utah State does foul a lot on defense. The Rebels should be able to score at the stripe quite a bit here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are very strong on defense. John Dunne teams are known for their defense. Marist is 5th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. The Red Foxes are third in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. They are first in the conference in steal percentage too.

Merrimack's defense has confused a whole lot of teams for the past few seasons. Coach Gatto is an excellent coach who should be able to use that full court unique zone defense to throw off Marist a good amount. 

Merrimack's offense is inconsistent. They shoot a lot of shots from long range, and Marist is 3rd in the nation in 3 point defense. On defense, Merrimack struggles on the defensive glass, but Marist isn't very good on the offensive boards.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The McNeese Cowboys are first in the conference in average possession length. UT Rio Grande Valley is third. The tempo should be quick enough here for this one to get over this relatively low total.

Larry Johnson and McNeese go hard to the basket, and UT Rio Grande lacks shot blockers. McNeese should score a lot on the interior. 

UT Rio Grande Valley has some solid outside shooters.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Howard Bison are first in the MEAC in overall tempo. They like to push the pace quite a bit. NC Central is first in offensive efficiency in the MEAC.

 NC Central lives at the line and Howard is bottom 50 in the nation at defending without fouling. 

This total has been bet down a lot, and I think it has gone down too far. I see both defenses as subpar and both teams at the charity stripe a lot here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacksonville is 360th in overall tempo in the country. This is a very slow paced team. The Dolphins are good at dictating the pace as well. Jacksonville is also dead last in the A Sun in offensive efficiency and second best in the A Sun in defensive efficiency. 

North Alabama is 282nd in overall tempo. They have played some very high scoring teams in their last few games and I believe that has inflated this total a few points.

Look for this game to be played in the halfcourt and stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 363rd out of 365 teams in the nation in overall tempo. They are looking to walk it up the court whenever they can. Northern Iowa is second in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is first in the MVC in defensive rebounding percentage and third in defending without fouling.

Valparaiso relies heavily on getting to the free throw line, and Northern Iowa should be far better than many of Valpo's opponents at keeping them off the line.

The first meeting was 58-48. I do think this game will be higher than that, but this total has steamed upward more than I expected and I have to back the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast and West Georgia are both involved in some pretty high scoring games. There's no doubt that a pretty high total is deserved high. I just think this one is too high. 

West Georgia is 220th in average possession length, while Florida Gulf Coast is 151st. These two teams are about average pace. They aren't running and gunning in a big way. 

West Georgia's game against ultra high scoring N Florida stayed below this total. Florida Gulf Coast has seen their last four games all stay below this total even though they played Queens and Lipscomb in their last two.

These two teams are both in the bottom 50 in the country in FTA/FGA. They shouldn't get to the line much.

Take the under at this high number. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham are 353rd nationally in average possession length. Fordham is 15th best in the nation in defending without fouling. They are also 15th best in defensive rebounding percentage. Fordham is 248th in offensive efficiency, and they really struggle to get open looks.

Duquesne played very fast in the non-conference portion of the schedule, but they are playing more than 1.5 seconds per possession slower on offense in conference play thus far. Their issue on defense has been fouling, but Fordham is 364th out of 365 in FTA/FGA's so they shouldn't take advantage of that.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Coyotes have as many injuries as anyone in the country. They have been without four key players in each of the last three games. South Dakota has had a 7 or 8 man team. That has led to them slowing their pace down a bit. South Dakota has played an average of 1.4 seconds per possession slower in conference play than they did in non-conference play.

UMKC has typically been one of the slower paced teams in the Summit League. They are a little faster than normal this year, but they are one of the worst offenses as well. S Dakota relies heavily on getting to the free throw line. UMKC is above average at defending without fouling. 

UMKC is 342nd in offensive efficiency. South Dakota is 203rd. This is an extremely high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IU Indy Jaguars are playing just a touch slower than earlier this season, but they are still running a lot. IU Indy still has only had 3 games lower than 158 points in their last 12 games. IU Indy is 364th in effective field goal percentage defense nationally. They are 353rd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Robert Morris is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference. They should get a ton of second chance opportunities here. They are 245th in offensive turnover percentage though, and IU Indy's full court pressure should create some easy baskets for the Jaguars. 

With the line move downward, I'll back the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins were a fast paced team a few years ago, but they have dialed it back on the tempo. Furman is 228th in tempo so far this season. Furman is 8th in their conference in tempo. Furman is second in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. The Paladins are 8th best in the country in defending without fouling. They are easily first in the conference in defending without fouling. That's important since Samford relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense. 

Samford is 247th in the nation in tempo. Samford has faced the 206th toughest slate of offenses this year compared to just 326th toughest slate of defenses. Furman is similar in this regard. The Paladins have faced the 165th toughest slate of offenses and only the 329th toughest slate of defenses. 

Furman's Cooper Bowser is their most efficient offensive player. He's missed the last five games due to injury.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 364th out of 365 teams in the nation in tempo. Northern Iowa will do their absolute best to to slow the game down and play in the halfcourt. They are favored here, and have been the more consistent team. 

UIC has dropped their tempo down quite a bit this year. They are 252nd in overall tempo. The Flames are playing much slower in league play as well. They are playing about two seconds per possession slower in league play than they were in non-conference action. 

The first game between these two was 60-54 Northern Iowa. 

Northern Iowa is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. UIC relies a lot on offensive rebounds. The Flames offense is 320th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play that very unique zone defense under Joe Gallo. They use the full court pressure to actually slow the game down. It's a really tough defense to go up against unless you have elite ball handlers. 

St. Peter's was held to 37 points when these two teams played a year ago. St. Peter's is once again very slow paced. They are 338th in average possession length and 270th in overall tempo. Merrimack is down at 341st in overall tempo because their zone slows down the opposition so much.

Merrimack takes quite a few long range jumpers, and St. Peter's has defended the 3 point line well in the last three seasons under Bashir Mason.

This total has gone up, but I don't see any reason for that line move. These defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers are 338th in average possession length this season. Pacific is also up to 111th in effective field goal percentage defense, and they are 19th in the nation when it comes to defensive rebounding percentage. 

San Diego has had some faster paced games of late, but those were against the likes of Gonzaga and Santa Clara. 

These two met in late December, and it was 66-54 with a pace of just 64 possessions. I think this will be a good amount higher than that, but this total is set several points higher than it should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Lindenwood Lions are 24th nationally in average possession length. They are the fastest paced team in the OVC. Lindenwood's defensive stats have been propped up by their "free throw defense" being so good. That should regress toward the mean with time. 

Lindenwood's offense should be able to take advantage of Little Rock in two areas. First, they are very good at second chance conversions, and Little Rock is poor on the defensive boards. Second, they are good at steals and quick scores, and Little Rock turns it over and allows a lot in transition.

Little Rock is excellent in transition as well off the steals, and Lindenwood has been terrible in that area on defense. Little Rock also is very good around the hoop on offense, and Lindenwood has been poor with the near proximity defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners have played 12 games against Division One opponents this year. The highest scoring game at the end of regulation they have had is 146 points. The rest of their games have finished 143 points or lower. UTEP has slowed the pace down considerably this year. They just don't have enough scorers, and the team is 311th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Western Kentucky does run, but the Hilltoppers are 326th in effective field goal percentage offense. Unless the Hilltoppers jump out to big early lead, I think UTEP will work hard to slow the pace down here. Western Kentucky has seen 4 of their last 6 against Division One opponents stay under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens are a completely different team this year. Delaware is 361st in average possession length nationally (out of 365 teams). They were 56th last season. They have pumped the brakes in a big way. Delaware is 356th in FTA/FGA, and they are 361st in offensive rebounding percentage. Defensively, Delaware is 88th in effective field goal percentage defense.

LA Tech is 350th in overall tempo, and this game should be played to a very slow pace. The Bulldogs are 347th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 26th in blocked shots percentage on defense though, and 72nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stanford Cardinal were playing fast in the non-conference slate, but this team has really backed down their tempo in recent contests. In the non-conference their average tempo was 69.5 possessions. In conference play, it has been an average o 60.5 possessions. 

I do think this will be played faster than that with Virginia on the other side, but Virginia's defense has been solid this year. Virginia is 8th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

I think this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia State has been a poor shooting team throughout the course of the season. They erupted for 62 second half points against Coastal Carolina in their last game. Georgia State went a whopping 17/30 from 3 point range in that game. They are 29.6% from three point range on the season. I don't expect their red hot shooting to continue. 

Appalachian State is one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers are 84th in effective field goal percentage defense this season. They have struggled at times on the defensive glass, but Georgia State is poor on the offensive boards. 

Appalachian State is 355th in the nation in overall tempo. The Mountaineers have played high scoring teams in Marshall and Old Dominion in their last two games. That and the fact that Georgia State just shot so well has pushed this total up too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Connecticut State are 308th in average possession length. They are trying to slow the pace down. Stonehill is 320th in average possession length. Both teams should be walking it up the floor in this one.

Central Connecticut is 289th in the nation in shot selection. Stonehill is 346th in the nation in shot selection. Both teams are also among the bottom 40 in the nation in FTA/FGA, so we shouldn't expect to see many free throws taken here.

These two teams were similar last year and there were 134 and 108 points in their two meetings. I think this one stays under the total too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers host the Hostra Pride in a weird middle of the week early afternoon contest here. The environment could be a little crazy with cheap tickets and low drink prices set as a big promotional for this game. 

Towson and Hofstra have a history of low scoring head to head matchups. They have seen 3 of the last 4 matchups finish at 125 points or less. Two of the last four have finished with a 115 points.

Towson is 362nd in the country in overall tempo. The Tigers struggle shooting the basketball, but they are above average on the defensive end.

Hofstra takes a lot of three pointers, but Towson is one of the top three point defenses so far this season.

Hofstra is 312th in average possession length, so they are slow paced as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos are upset at the way they lost their last game in San Diego on Saturday night. Boise State fought very hard in that game though, and Leon Rice coached teams are always going to battle.

Boise State is up to 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. That's important because Grand Canyon has been good on the offensive glass, but they shouldn't get nearly as many second chance points as normal in this one.

Grand Canyon is 53rd in the country in defensive efficiency. The Antelopes are 20th in defensive rebounding percentage too.

Both teams play at a slightly slower than average tempo. Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both are outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are 35th in shot selection allowed. They are 25th in defensive efficiency. Villanova is 354th in overall tempo, so they really slow things down.

Creighton is 7th in shot selection allowed. The Blue Jays are third best in the nation at not giving up free throw attempts. 

Creighton has had four road games, and in three of them their offense was terrible. The Blue Jays don't have the shooters they have had in recent years. They are just 34.5% from 3 point range. 

Creighton is 233rd in overall tempo. This total has been bet up a bit and I disagree with that line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams were in a low scoring battle with Richmond in their last game before Richmond started just making every 3 point jumper they put up later in the game. Richmond scored 35 points in the last 10 minutes of the game. Richmond finished an astonishing 13/19 from 3 point range. 

Fordham is 350th in overall tempo. The Rams are 9th at defending without fouling. They are 15th in defensive rebounding percentage. George Mason is 4th in FTA/FGA,  but Fordham's strength has been not putting the opposition on the line. 

The strength of the Fordham offense has been offensive rebounding, but George Mason is 39th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. 

George Mason is 314th in overall tempo. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers are 360th in the country in overall tempo. West Virginia is 112th in effective field goal percentage offense and 41st in effective field goal percentage defense. West Virginia struggles on offense and relies on free throws and second chance opportunities. Cincinnati is 7th in defensive rebounding percentage, and they are 66th in FTA/FGA allowed.

Cincinnati is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are 222nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are taking a bunch of long range jumpers, and they haven't been very good at them.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a really good defensive team, and they slow the pace down to a crawl. Northern Iowa is 8th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 57th at defending without fouling. They are second nationally in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is also 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in overall tempo.

Evansville is far below average in their possession length on offense, so they prefer to play slowly. The Purple Aces are 328th in overall offensive efficiency.

Northern Iowa is the better team and I like their defense to control things here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers have had an average of 174.3 points per game scored in their last six games. None of them have finished lower than 161 points. Denver's defense is about as bad as anyone in the country. They are awful at defending the 3 point shot, and St. Thomas has multiple very good outside shooters. Denver takes good care of the basketball on offense though, and they are Carson Johnson and Zane Nelson. This team can put up a bunch of points in a hurry.

St. Thomas is coached by Johnny Tauer who is an offensive wizard. This Tommies team is top 35 in effective field goal percentage offense for the third straight season. They should torch this Denver defense. 

Both offenses should pile up the points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Fordham has been great on defense this year. They are allowing just 58.6 points per game at home. Fordham has seen 9 of their 11 games against Division One teams this year go under this posted total. The Rams are 6th in the nation at defending without fouling. They are also 19th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are a weak 257th in offensive efficiency. Fordham also is 345th out of 365 in tempo, so they are moving very slowly.

Richmond just had an epic shootout against George Washington in their last game. The game was just 66 possessions, but both teams shot lights out. It should be difficult for them to shoot as well in this one. The Spiders are just an average paced team. Richmond has faced a very easy slate of defenses this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks were 88th in average possession length last year. They are 310th this season. This UT Arlington team is winning with defense and they are slowing the game down. Their biggest weakness is putting the opposition on the line too much, but Southern Utah is one of the worst in the nation at getting to the charity stripe.

Southern Utah is 16th at defending without fouling which is important because UT Arlington relies on getting to the line a lot to score. 

There are two really bad offenses here, and UT Arlington's defense is very good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SIU Edwardsville has played in three straight OVC games that were 127 points or lower in regulation. This is a team that is far better on defense than offense. They are 323rd in offensive efficiency for the year. 

Morehead State is 316th in offensive efficiency. They take a lot of mid range jumpers that are low quality shots.

Both teams play at a slow pace. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tennessee State is pushing the pace to the extreme. They have sped up of late. The Tigers appear to be the fastest or second fastest paced team in the OVC. They are fouling at a high rate too. Their full court pressure is turning teams over at a very high rate and Little Rock gives up a lot of steals and quick scores.

Little Rock's big men Gatkek is healthy again and he should do work here against Tenn State's interior defense which just isn't very good at all. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is some risk associated with taking an under between these two teams. They play very quickly and there will be a lot of possessions in this game. I'm still going to take the under at this high of a number.

North Carolina is 2nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in shot selection allowed. The Tar Heels have length all over the floor, and they have been making opponents shots very tough.

SMU is 35th best in shot selection allowed.

This one is 6 points above my projected number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana is one of the best under teams in the country. They are 364th out of 365 teams nationally in overall tempo. They are 353rd in offensive efficiency. They have consistently played very low scoring games.

Southern Miss has taken on three very fast paced teams in their last three games and that is inflating the total a bit.

The first meeting between these two was 116 points and that was with Southern Miss shooting 39 free throws.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights know they need to slow the pace of this game down. Rutgers used up 19.1 seconds per possession (a slow pace) in their Big Ten games so far this year. They lost those games in blowouts too, so the fact that they were stalling despite the score shows they were very committed to playing slowly. Rutgers is 23rd in shot selection allowed this year.

Ohio State has typically played to the pace of their opponent under Diebler. The Buckeyes have been at the free throw line a lot this year, but Rutgers is very good at defending without fouling. Rutgers also has much better numbers on defense when playing at home.

A high total given the expected pace of this game and the Rutgers weakness on offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a great defensive team. They also play at an extremely slow pace. Northern Iowa is 361st in tempo out of 365 teams in the country. Northern Iowa is also sixth nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They are good on the defensive glass and very good at defending without fouling. Offensively, they very rarely get second shots, and they don't get to the line much.

Indiana State has been quite a bit better on defense this year than a year ago. The Sycamores are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played about a second per possession slower than a year ago as well. On offense, they have been shooting a bunch of long range jumpers and not getting many second chances.

Take the under.