Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-21 | Golden Knights -130 v. Wild | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
15 Vegas at Minnesota Once again the Knights dominated play and failed to get the win. On the season Vegas is 4-2 when in revenge for losing a game the advanced stats show should have been a win. Interesting side bar for Vegas is that in four years of postseason play they still haven’t clinched a series in front of the home crowd. Minnesota was a house of horrors for this team previously, but that is no longer the case with the road team dominating on the scoreboard. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-26-21 | Penguins -104 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
9 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders This has been an extremely tight series like we expected. It’s been a clear zig zag series like you would expect from these two squads. With Pittsburgh losing at home last time out in a game it should have won, based on the advanced stats. The Penguins are 5-2 on the season in revenge, when losing a game it fared better in the advanced stats. Look for the road team to come out with a little more fight tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's -165 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
974 Seattle at Oakland Listed Gilbert & Irvin Logan Gilbert enters this game with an average game score of 40 and an ERA of 9.45. But his advanced numbers are even worse. His average exit velocity is 94.7 mph, and his hard hit percentage is 65.2. To make matters worse, those two starts came against the Tigers and Indians. The wRC+ of those teams vs righties are 91 and 84. Now he takes on an Oakland team with a 102 wRC+ vs right handed starters. Cole Irvin isn’t as good as his stats suggest, but he is a legit MLB starter. Seattle has a 77 wRC+ on the season vs lefties, second worst in baseball. After pulling out a 4-2 victory yesterday, it’s revenge time for the A’s. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild -102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
40 Vegas at Minnesota Being a season ticket holder we went to the first two games in Las Vegas. After watching those games in person, and viewing the regular season games on television, it’s clear that these two teams are equal against each other. While the Golden Knights have dominated against the bottom feeders of the division, Minnesota has the speed and talent to match up extremely well in this series. While the Knights grabbed the 3-1 victory on Tuesday, the Wild were the more consistent team throughout the game. Now going up north to Minnesota, we expect a big bounce back from the host. Considering that Vegas has won once in regulation in four years in Minnesota, and the Knights are off a satisfying victory, it’s time for the Wild to shine. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers -148 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -148 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
28 Winnipeg at Edmonton In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Edmonton 18th. In xG/60 the Jets are -0.29 and the Oilers are -0.02. So the Oilers are much better than the actual goals scored would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 9th and Edmonton 1st. In xG/60 we find the Jets +6.34 and the Oilers +7.89. Over 1 1/2 goals per 60 minutes on the power play for the host. Playing Short Handed the Jets rank 10th and the Oilers 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.91 and Edmonton -7.00. So virtually equal when looking at expected goals. Edmonton won 7 of 9 in this series, outscoring the Jets 34-23. There are only two quality teams coming out of Canada in these playoffs, Toronto and Edmonton. We will gladly lay the price here to get the Oilers at home. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-18-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
14 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh We played the Islanders in the first game of this series, and came away with a nice overtime victory. But in watching that game it was clear that Pittsburgh was the better team. The Penguins have a 4-2 record in revenge after outplaying the opposition and still losing. Now back home down 0-1 we have to expect a rebound from the Penguins on Tuesday. This team posted a 22-4-2 record on this ice during the regular season. And the Islanders won only 11 of 28 total games on the road. Lay it with the host. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-17-21 | Bruins -125 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
1 Boston at Washington Now that the Capitals took the first game, we have a solid opportunity on Boston to even the series. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Bruins are 12th and the Capitals 4th. In xG/60 we find Boston +0.27 and Washington +0.15. So regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play Washington ranks 8th and Boston 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Bruins +5.31 and the Capitals +6.41. A sizable advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Boston ranks 3rd and Washington 5th. In xG/60 the Bruins are -3.92 and the Capitals -5.27. A terrific advantage for Boston, as Washington is overrated in the rankings. Boston should have won the first game and now Washington is having a weaker goaltending situation. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-13-21 | Indians -112 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
971 Cleveland at Seattle Listed Plesac & Gilbert There is a song by one of our favorites, Motorhead, called “The chase is better than the catch”. While that song is about pursuing a woman, the same could be applied here with Logan Gilbert. Seattle has a loaded minor league system and tonight the Seattle faithful get to see the two players they have been waiting on for the last two years. They will both be in the lineup tonight against the Indians. But while the future is bright for both these players, the Major Leagues are a huge step up in quality. There is excitement in the air for not only baseball fans, but sports bettors as this line has dropped 20 cents since the opener. And that move puts us squarely on the Tribe and Zach Plesac. Did you know that the young righty for the Indians has pitched three games this season without allowing a run? When not facing the Chicago White Sox he has put up game scores of 83, 65, 60, 77 and 54. Outstanding work for a pitcher that finished last season with a 2.28 ERA. The Indians have won eight of nine games heading into this contest, and are 10-7 on the season away from Progressive Field. Seattle on the other hand has faded of late, losing four straight heading into this contest. The Mariners rookies are going to be good, but they are not saviors in their first game. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-13-21 | Wild -108 v. Blues | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
37 Minnesota at St Louis The Wild were embarrassed yesterday and we expect a major bounce back. They are 6-3 this year playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Wild rank 9th and the Blues 19th. In xG/60 we find Minnesota +0.20 and St Louis -0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and St Louis 4th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.13 and the Blues +6.02. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Wild Rank 11th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 we find Minnesota -5.23 and St Louis -7.63. The only advantage St Louis has is on the Power Play, but that is overshadowed by the other two situations for Minnesota. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-09-21 | Senators +178 v. Flames | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
9 Ottawa at Calgary Must win game for the Flames as they are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. Which is why this line is so high. But we’ve always said that teams in must win games must not be very good to put themselves in this type of situation. Over the last ten games Calgary has gone 5-5-0 and Ottawa 8-1-1. The Sens have played three more games but have two more points than Calgary. After spending the entire season in dead last this team can finish the season in fifth place. So even though Ottawa played yesterday, in their minds they are also motivated in this contest. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Ottawa ranking 26th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sens -0.19 and the Flames +0.17. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Calgary 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Senators +5.36 and the Flames +5.36, exactly even. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Senators are ranked 13th and the Flames 21st. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.94 and Calgary -5.68. White the Flames need to win this game to keep their season alive, the numbers say these two teams are close to even. A huge advantage in price for the Senators. By the way, Ottawa has taken six of eight games in this series this season. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-08-21 | Red Wings +118 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
57 Detroit at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Columbus 30th. In xG/60 we find the Red Wings -0.4 and the Blue Jackets -0.46. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 its the Red Wings at +4.14 and the Blue Jackets at +3.82. So the Red Wings are better than the actual goals suggest. Playing Short Handed Detroit ranks 28th and Columbus 15th. In xG/60 we find the Wings -6.78 and the Jackets -5.11. A substantial advantage for the host. Detroit leads the season series four to three, and this is the final game of the season for both these squads. The Red Wings came into the season with no expectations at all. While the Blue Jackets expected to make the playoffs. We expect the visitor to come out with more energy as this team has played pretty well down the stretch. Columbus not so much. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
46 St Louis at Vegas In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Knights 3rd. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.32 and Vegas +0.38. A solid .70 goals advantage per 60 minutes for the host. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 3rd and Vegas 15th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find the Blues +5.97 and the Knights +7.20. So there is major regression on the horizon for both these teams, with Vegas having a sizable expected goal advantage. On the Penalty Kill St Louis ranks 27th and Vegas 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues -7.67 and the Knights -5.14. A major advantage of over 2.5 goals per 60 minutes playing short handed. Vegas is 4-2 in the season series with one of the losses coming in a shootout. The line is cheap here because many expect a letdown after finally winning in Minnesota a couple days ago. Normally that would be a concern, but a similar situation occurred about a week ago. The Knights had just beaten Colorado in an important game to bring their winning streak to ten games. They traveled to Arizona and were dominated by the Coyotes 3-0. The team as a whole talked about taking that game for granted and said they couldn’t afford to do that again. With that situation fresh in their minds we expect 100% effort from the host tonight. Look for the Knights to make a statement against their likely first round playoff opponent. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
962 San Diego at San Francisco Listed Snell & DeSclafani We’ve been riding DeSclafani this year because he has been severely underrated. As mentioned before, when not pitching in the launching pad of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, his numbers have been solid. This season he has had six starts, with five of those being 55 or better game scores. His worst start of the season was a 43 at Philadelphia, another great hitters park. He faced the Padres just six days ago and allowed three earned runs in six innings. Blake Snell faced off against him in that game and yielded just a single run in five innings of work. In two road starts for Snell this season his game scores have been 33 and 51. Pitching at home DeSclafani has produced game scores of 67 and 89. The Giants are 7-4 on the season vs lefty starters, and are 10-3 at home this season. Nice value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-05-21 | Orioles +105 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
965 Baltimore at Seattle Listed Means & Kikuchi John Means has simply been outstanding this year. In his last seven starts he has a 67 average game score with a 1.67 ERA. To make those stats even better, 5 of his last 7 starts have been on the road. Even more impressive those starts were at really strong venues of the A’s, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Now he takes a step down to face the Mariners, who according to wRC+ is the weakest offensive opponent he has faced. Kikuchi has been better this year, but he still owns a 4.40 ERA. Pitching at home this year he has permitted eight earned runs in 13 innings of work. We always look for luck factors in small sizes this early in the season. Baltimore is a combined 6-6 in extra innings and one run games. Seattle is 11-4 in those situations. Look for the Mariners luck to take a hit in the near future. No time better than now. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-03-21 | Indians v. Royals +103 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
964 Cleveland at Kansas City Listed Civile and Lynch Aaron Civale came into the season highly thought of. And overall he has been good, but his two best performances were against the light hitting Tigers. He is opposing Daniel Lynch, a hot shot lefty making his Major League debut. The Indians are 5-7 on the season vs left-handed starters, and rank 28th overall in wRC+. The Royals rank 14th in WRC+ and are 11-5 vs right-handed starters. With an 8-5 home record and coming off a blowout loss at Minnesota, we expect the host to win this one. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights -186 v. Coyotes | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -186 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
73 Vegas at Arizona Somewhat surprised by the value on the Knights here, based on the team with the league wide highest winning streak this season. Sure Vegas is off that key game with Colorado, but what have they shown to not be a substantial favorite here? Vegas is 16-7-0 on the road this season, while Arizona is only 11-10-3 at home. The Knights are on a 7-1 run away from home, and are 5-1 vs the Coyotes on the year. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 2nd and the Coyotes rank 21st. In xG/60 We find Vegas at +0.42 and Arizona -0.25. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 18th and the Coyotes 23rd. In xG/60 Vegas is +7.13 and Arizona +4.79. A huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 2nd and Arizona 18th. In xG/60 we find the Knights -5.33 and the Coyotes -7.71. Another major advantage for the visitor. We played Dallas at Detroit in this price range earlier, and the Stars completely dominated the game. They had to go to overtime to win, but the stats showed it was a complete mismatch. This looks like the strongest road favorite value on the season, despite having to lay close to -200. This line should be much higher. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-30-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates +103 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
902 St Louis at Pittsburgh Listed Gant & Brubaker On the season these two clubs have been almost identical offensively with St Louis ranking 22nd with a 90 wRC+ and Pittsburgh at 23rd with the same wRC+. John Gant has a 48 average game score his last seven starts, while JT Brubaker is averaging a 57 game score in his previous seven. Gant has been very fortunate in his young career allowing just 5 home runs in 101.1 innings of work. His advanced stats show his barrel % to be a career high of 8.9, while his fly ball % is 21.4, also a career high. Last year he was a major ground ball pitcher with 66.7% of his pitches being beaten into the ground, but his lifetime marks suggest something in the range of 47.8%. He throws the sinker 51% of the time as compared to 39% last year. So he’s throwing his best pitch more, but he’s getting less success with it. This year his WOBA on that pitch is .325, while last year it was .205. We expect some negative regression. The Pirates had yesterday off which is an offensive advantage. JT Brubaker has been terrific thus far as he was a standout coming into the season. His barrel rate is 2% lower than Gant, and he is at a 59% ground ball rate. His walk percentage is 5.5, much better than Gant’s 14.8. So we have a rested team, with a superior starter who has better advanced stats in virtually every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-28-21 | Blues v. Wild -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
38 St Louis at Minnesota Many will look at this as a must win for the Blues, who are fighting off Arizona to make the playoffs. But Minnesota only sits a point behind Colorado and five behind Vegas for the divisional title. St Louis is off back to back upsets of the Avalanche, and face Minnesota five times down the stretch. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -0.31 and Minnesota +0.12. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 6th and Minnesota 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues +5.87 and the Wild 5.84. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Blues rank 28th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -7.98 and Minnesota -4.91. A major advantage for the host. St Louis has been a solid 12-8-2 on the road this year, but the Wild has been an outstanding 17-4-0 in this building. Let’s lay it with the far better team. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
956 Philadelphia at St Louis Listed Eflin & Martinez Over the years Carlos Martinez has fared well against the Phillies, but 11 days ago he posted a 36 game score. Allowing six earned runs in five innings. That was his worst start of the young season. His last time out he threw a 62 game score at the Nationals. Zach Eflin beat St Louis and Martinez in that game 9-2, throwing a nice 63 game score. But home Eflin and road Eflin have been two different things. In his last six road starts he has game scores of 43, 66, 32, 47, 41 and 29, an average of 43. Keep in mind league average is 50. When looking at the Statcast data from last year to this year, we are deeply troubled. Checking his velocity his 4 seam fastball is down 1.5 mph, and his sinker is down 1.8 mph. His solid hit percentage is a career high 11.5. Eflin’s fly ball percentage of 32.1 is also a career high. Philadelphia is just 2-7 on the road heading into Monday night. Look for the Cards bats to reverse the earlier 9-2 loss with a solid victory in this competitively priced game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche -155 v. Blues | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
69 Colorado at St Louis Important game for the Avalanche who are now trailing the red hot Golden Knights. Neither team wants to have to face Minnesota in the first round, so clinching first place is extremely big in this division. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and St Louis 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche +0.90 and the Blues -0.30. A full 1.2 goals better in 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 4th and St Louis 8th. In xG/60 the Avalanche are +7.96 and the Blues +5.86. Over two full goals per 60 minutes of power play time. Playing Short Handed the Avalanche rank 8th and the Blues 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Colorado is -5.06 and St Louis -6.53. Basically a 1 1/2 goal per 60 minutes advantage for the visitor. Colorado is 5-2 in this series and are off a loss. Look for the much better team to get the victory on Monday. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-24-21 | Stars -190 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
47 Dallas at Detroit Not many times will we recommend a team as an away favorite in this price range. But a look at the stats shows this line should be much higher. In 5x5 G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Detroit 24th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.23 and the Red Wings -0.26. So about 1/2 goal advantage for the visitor in a full 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 7th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.47 and the Red Wings +4.31. Over two goals per 60 minutes advantage on the Power Play. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Stars rank 20th and the Red Wings 29th. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.14 and Detroit is -6.55. Major advantages across the board for the Stars, along with revenge for an embarrassing 7-3 loss on Thursday. Dallas has won 5 of the 7 games played between these two this season. The Stars worst goal prevention on the season was allowing five goals twice. Now off a seven goal effort look for Dallas to clamp down majorly on Saturday. PLAY DALLAS |
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04-23-21 | Predators -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
35 Nashville at Chicago We were extremely lucky to cash with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, as the Preds completely outplayed them. While we are not giving the money back, we had a wrong side winner in that contest. In 5x5 G+-/60 Nashville ranks 18th and Chicago 8th. In xG/60 the Preds are -0.01 and the Blackhawks come in at -0.40. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Nashville ranking 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 the Predators are +4.92 and the Blackhawks are +5.06. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 28th and Chicago 26th. In xG/60 we see the Preds -5.95 and the Blackhawks -5.71. The Predators have won 5 of 6 meetings this year and should have won Wednesday. They bounce back here in a big way. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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04-22-21 | Senators +125 v. Canucks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
27 Ottawa at Vancouver Going unnoticed by the casual fan, the Senators are playing well right now. Coming off a 4-2 road win at Calgary along with a 4-0 victory at Montreal. Previously they spit a two game home series with Winnipeg, outscoring them 6-5. And they also took Toronto to the wire in a 6-5 loss on the road. In 5x5 G+-/60 Vancouver ranks 19th and Ottawa 31st. But in xG/60 in 5x5 action the Canucks are -0.46 and the Senators -0.33. So positive regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Vancouver 25th. In xG/60 we see the Senators +5.25 and the Canucks +5.61. Playing Short Handed the Senators are 18th, and the Canucks 21st in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -6.38 and Vancouver -7.36. A major advantage for the visitor. Vancouver is 5-0 on the season vs Ottawa, but these teams aren’t the same as they were in January. The last two meetings in March were both decided after regulation. Look for Ottawa to get the nice underdog victory tonight. PLAY OTTAWA |
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04-21-21 | Braves +121 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 121 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
975 Atlanta at NY Yankees Listed Anderson & Kluber We’ve faded Corey Kluber before and we have seen no reason to stop. Going back to the year 2015 his highest barrel percentage allowed was 8.9 in 2019. It’s currently 15.6%. His highest exit velocity was 87.9, it’s now 90.7, and he’s only had 32 batted balls against him. He’s been very lucky as the 2021 launch angle is only 6.6 degrees, it’s normally twice that since 2015. Ian Anderson is clearly the better starter at this point in their careers. In hard hit percentage the Yankees rank 28th and the Braves 13th. Looking at wRC+ we find the Yankees ranking 26th and Atlanta 9th. Better hitting, stronger starting pitching, and an underdog. Count us in. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-20-21 | White Sox v. Indians +105 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
912 Chicago WS at Cleveland Listed Rodon & Plesac Quick rematch of the Rodon no-hitter with a venue change. We usually look to fade a pitcher off the emotional high, and it’s especially true after the injury battles Carlos Rodon had to go through to get to where he is now. It was a great story, but we have to move on to the next game. Plesac was bombed in that game as he simply didn’t pitch well. The last time he had a game anywhere near that result he pitched an 87 game score his next outing. We all know the Sox rake against lefties, with a 4-1 record this season. But they are only 4-8 on the year vs righties. Looking at hard hit rate Cleveland ranks 7th and Chicago 19th. Yet the White Sox have an 18% better wRC+. That means Cleveland is hitting better than the actual runs scored would suggest. With the Indians 4-1 at home this year, and the embarrassment of being no-hit, we will back the Tribe as an underdog today. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-17-21 | Panthers +135 v. Lightning | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
9 Florida at Tampa Bay In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Lightning 7th. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.32 and Tampa +0.23. So nice regression is in store for the Panthers. On the Power Play Florida ranks 11th and Tampa Bay 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +6.98 and the Lightning +6.13. So major positive regression is in store for Florida. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida comes in ranked 16th and Tampa Bay 9th. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.12 and the Lightning -4.85. A substantial advantage for the host. With these two battling for the second time in three days, we will look for Florida to even the series. The Panthers deserved better than an overtime loss on Wednesday. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-14-21 | Ducks v. Sharks -173 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -173 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
44 Anaheim at San Jose Both these teams are poor skating 5x5 in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 25th. In xG/60 we see the Ducks at -0.42 and the Sharks +0.04. So we can expect major positive regression for San Jose. Once again both teams have looked bad on the Power Play in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks dead last at 31st and San Jose is 26th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Anaheim +6.69 and the Sharks +6.28. So Anaheim has a bit of positive regression on its way. On the Penalty Kill Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Ducks are -6.55 and the Sharks -5.74. A nice advantage for the host. Anaheim has two wins in six games this month, both against these Sharks in this building. This is the third game in four days for Anaheim. This is the final game of a 1-3 home stand for the Sharks who then travel to Minnesota and Vegas. This is the game San Jose has to have and we believe they get it. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-13-21 | Panthers -109 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
29 Florida at Dallas Quick turnaround game after the Stars beat the Panthers 4-1 on Saturday. Dallas lost at Nashville in a shootout between these two Florida contests. In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 13th and Dallas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.33 and the Stars +0.16. So slight regression in the favor of the visitor. On the Power Play the Panthers rank 11th and the Stars 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see Florida +6.76 and Dallas +6.58. Another situation that suggests Florida positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida ranks 15th and Dallas 22nd. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.17 and the Stars -6.18. Dallas is playing its third game in five days, so the rest and the revenge factor is in play for the visitor. With a solid 12-8-1 record on the road we will back the Panthers here. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-13-21 | Indians v. White Sox -102 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
976 Cleveland at Chicago WS Listed Bieber & Giolito This one should be a tremendous game as we have two elite pitchers dealing. While Bieber is the reigning Cy Young Winner, he hasn’t exactly dominated the White Sox over the years. In his last five against Chicago his average game score is 55. League average is 50, so he is doing well, but not nearly as dominant as he has been against most teams. Giolito on the other hand has a 70 average game score against the Tribe his last five starts in this series. In 33.2 innings his ERA is 1.07. The Indians are hitting above their heads right now, ranking 2nd in baseball with a 38.8% hard hit rate. Yet they have scored just 37 runs in eight games 4.63 runs per game. In 5 of 8 games Cleveland has scored four or less runs. If that’s all Cleveland can score when hitting the ball on the button, that tells you all you need to know about this limited offense. Rarely will be get the chance to play Giolito at home in this price range. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-11-21 | Yankees v. Rays +134 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
972 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Listed Pitchers Montgomery & Honeywell Jr In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ on the road vs righties of 87, the Rays had a wRC+ of 134 hosting lefties. Jordan Montgomery looked really good in his first start of the year, producing a 71 game score. But when looking at his last seven starts he is only slightly better than average at 51. He has struggled against the Rays with a 46 average game score in his previous five starts against the Bay. Brent Honeywell Jr is being called up to make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Rays. This is a pitcher that has been highly coveted throughout his career, but injuries have slowed down his development. We are excited for him to get the chance to make his debut today. With a loaded Rays minor league system, it’s telling why they brought him up for this start. Can’t forget that the Rays are 10-2 vs the Yankees the past two seasons. Getting them as a home underdog in this price range is a gift. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
914 Kansas City at Chicago WS Keller & Lynn In 2020 the Royals had a wRC+ of 79 on the road vs righties, Chicago had a wRC+ of 111 hosting righties. Big fan of both these pitchers as in our mind they never get enough attention for their success. Brad Keller has a 56 average game score his last five starts against the Sox, all within the past two seasons. Lance Lynn has had similar success against the Royals, with a 55 average game score the past five starts. Keller was crushed in his first start of the season, allowing six earned runs in only 1.1 innings. Last year he had three starts that were worse than the league average 50 game score. In his following starts he put up game scores of 66, 78 and 69. In June on in 2019 after a league average or worse performance his game scores were 56, 65, 71, 77, 50, and 57. Expect a big bounce back from Keller as these two go head to head in a great pitching performance. PLAY UNDER |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10 Arizona at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 20th and the Kings 22nd. In xG/60 we see Arizona at -0.28 and LA at -0.42. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Coyotes are ranked 23rd and the Kings 11th. In xG/60 we find Arizona +4.48 and Los Angeles +6.55. A significant advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 12th and LA 7th. In xG/60 we see the Coyotes at -8.12 and the Kings -6.68. Another nice advantage for the host. After falling behind 3-0 on Monday, the Coyotes never stood a chance. We look for the host to get its revenge Wednesday. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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04-06-21 | White Sox -140 v. Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
925 Chicago White Sox at Seattle Giolito & Paxton In 2020 Chicago had a 129 wRC+ on the road vs lefties, Seattle 85 hosing righties. If you remember back to last season the White Sox feasted on lefties, with the best won/loss record in the league. They are already 1-0 in that regard this year, and will be facing a Seattle lefty for the second straight game on Tuesday. Giolito is expected to have success against this weaker Seattle lineup, and we simply love this Chicago bullpen. The Mariners have a good young corps of players in the upper minors, who will help the team later on this season. But they likely have no answers for the dominant Chicago offense. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-05-21 | Golden Knights -123 v. Blues | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
45 Vegas at St Louis Must win game for the Golden Knights who just dropped three straight at home to the Kings and the Wild. After this two game series with St Louis the schedule gets easier with contests against Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose. The bottom four teams in the division. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 8th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 Vegas is +0.12 and St Louis -0.18. On the Power Play Vegas ranks 21st and St Louis 11th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Knights +6.23 and the Blues +6.04. So these two are much closer than the actual goals scored would tell. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 7th and St Louis 25th. In xG/60 the Golden Knights are -5.88 and the Blues -7.89. A huge advantage for the visitor. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-04-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
32 Dallas at Carolina This is the fourth game of a six game road trip for the Stars. Carolina is in the midst of its longest home stand of the season. The Hurricanes have lost in regulation just twice all season, one coming yesterday to these Stars. In 5x5 action G+-/60 numbers Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.24 and the Hurricanes +0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Stars rank 9th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Dallas at +6.43 and Carolina +6.42. Virtually even, and positive regression for Dallas. On the Penalty Kill Dallas ranks 24th and Carolina 6th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Stars are -6.37 and the Hurricanes -4.13, a huge advantage for the host. We played Dallas yesterday and were rewarded with a victory. Today we look for the Hurricanes to even up the weekend series. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-03-21 | Sharks +109 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
23 San Jose at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Los Angeles 21st. In xG/60 we find the Sharks -0.01 and the Kings -0.41. So luck has been on the side of Los Angeles when skating at full strength. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 23rd and LA 10th. In xG/60 we see the Sharks +6.65 and the Kings +6.44. So San Jose has played much better than the actual goals scored, LA is in for some negative regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 16th and Los Angeles 6th. But when looking at the advanced metric of xG/60 we find the Sharks -5.53 and the Kings -6.26. So there is likely heavy regression for both these teams. The actual goal scoring numbers have these two rated very equally, but the advanced stats show the wrong team is favored. The Sharks dominated play yesterday against the top goalie of the Kings, we look for more domination tonight. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-02-21 | Maple Leafs -135 v. Jets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
61 Toronto at Winnipeg The Maple Leafs are the clearly better team and the scheduling situation shows a level playing field. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 7th and the Jets 14th. In xG/60 its Toronto +0.50 and Winnipeg -0.36. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 4th and Winnipeg 5th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.14 and the Jets +6.09. The advanced stat shows Toronto to be far superior than the actual results. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we find Toronto ranking 21st and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 the Maple Leafs are -4.75 and the Jets -6.43. So we can look forward to positive regression for Toronto, and negative regression for the host. This should be a dominant game for the Maple Leafs. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes -153 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
53 Carolina at Chicago In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 9th and Chicago 24th. Looking at the advanced stats of G/60 we see the Hurricanes +0.29 and the Blackhawks at 0.39. That’s a sizable margin for the visitor. Both teams excel on the Power Play in G+-/60 with the Hurricanes ranking 1st and the Hawks 6th. In xG/60 Carolina is +6.48 and Chicago +5.17. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 5th and the Blackhawks 25th. In xG/60 we find Carolina -3.94 and Chicago -5.85. While the number is high for the road favorite, the revenge motive and the advanced stats put us clearly on the Hurricanes. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
644 Oregon & USC The Ducks looked really good when playing the fast tempo of Iowa, but this game should be played at a much slower pace. Oregon has great athletes that can get out and run with the best of them. But that’s not what USC wants to do. You can see the Ducks problems in the previous 72-58 loss to the Trojans. Oregon couldn’t get to the line and shot just 16 of 40 from two point range. USC leads the country in defending around the basket, and rank 7th in both defensive adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Give us the Trojans. PLAY USC |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
648 Syracuse & Houston It’s been another nice run through the tournament for Jim Boeheim and his boys. But we feel this is where it comes to an end. A major reason is the offensive glass dominance of the Cougars. Syracuse ranks 339th in the nation, allowing 34.0% offensive rebounding to the opposition. Houston is the second best in the country with an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.8. The biggest weakness for Houston is allowing the opposition to get to the line, ranking 332nd in the country. But Syracuse isn’t a team that draws fouls ranking 266th offensively. The Orangemen rank out of the top 100 in both three and two point offensive shooting percentage, while Houston against a lesser schedule is 12th and 4th in those categories. Just a terrible matchup for the Orangemen. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-26-21 | Sharks +108 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
29 San Jose at Arizona The Sharks have played very well since opening the season with 12 straight road games. They end the month with 6 of 8 games played at home. The only road games are the two here in Arizona. Arizona is off a shocking upset shootout winner hosting Colorado. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Sharks rank 20th and the Coyotes 25th. In xG/60 we find San Jose at -0.07 and Arizona -0.31. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Arizona 25th. In xG/60 the Sharks are +6.38, and the Coyotes +4.00. A major advantage for San Jose. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Sharks are 19th, and Coyotes rank 10th. In xG/60 we find San Jose -5.77, and the Coyotes -8.22. So obviously these two have had far different luck when looking at the advanced stats. Because of that poor puck luck for the Sharks, we find plenty of value on San Jose in this one. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
15 Florida at Chicago These two met on Tuesday with the Blackhawks winning 3-2. But that was an obvious let down spot for the Panthers who had beaten Chicago the previous Monday, and were coming off the big showdown loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 10th and the Hawks 23rd. In xG/60 we find Florida at +0.38 and Chicago -0.31. A strong advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play both teams have fared well with Florida ranking 5th and Chicago 7th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Panthers +7.15 and the Blackhawks +5.49. A much bigger discrepancy than the actual goals. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Blackhawks 27th. In xG/60 we find Florida -5.78, and Chicago -5.91. Closer than the actual Penalty Killing numbers. Chicago has been a surprise thus far, but Florida is the better team off back to back losses. Give us the Panthers to take this one. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
572 Charlotte at Houston This seems to be a very good matchup for Houston. The Rockets rank 6th in the league in shots at the rim, and the Hornets are 26th in rim percentage shots allowed, and 25th in rim defense. Charlotte is at its best defensively in mid-range shots. But Houston ranks 30th in the league in mid-range attempts. Houston likes to shoot from distance, and this Charlotte defense gives up a great deal of threes. Ranking 30th in corner threes and 29th overall. The Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball who is out for four weeks after right wrist surgery. They rebounded from the loss to the likely rookie of the year, with a 100-97 victory over San Antonio on Monday. Teams tend to step up after a star player injury the first game, but struggle then after. That’s what we expect here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-22-21 | Hurricanes -154 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 21st. In xG/60 we find Carolina +0.31 and Columbus -0.42. A sizable edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.45 and the Jackets +3.73, a huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Canes are ranked 4th and the Jackets 21st. In xG/60 Carolina is -4.36 and Columbus -5.27. It’s clear Carolina is the better team here, but also the more motivated after losing three straight including two hosting these Jackets. With Tampa Bay on Saturday, it’s imperative Carolina gets those two games back in Columbus. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
805 Texas Tech & Arkansas This should be one of the best games of the season if you love defense. Although the Red Raiders only have an 18-10 record on the season, all the losses were to Top 32 opposition. Every team Texas Tech lost to is still alive in the final 32, except Texas who beat the Red Raiders by a single point. Arkansas has the gaudy 23-6 record, but the advanced stats show this as more of an 19-10 team. Even in the 85-68 win over Colgate, it took an 11 of 31 two point shooting night from the underdog to get the victory. The Red Raiders have a pedigree in the Big Dance, with one of the best coaches in the country. There is a reason they are favored here. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
789 Abilene Christian & Texas Really like this Wildcats team who held their own at Texas Tech and Arkansas. They lead college hoops in forcing turnovers, and rank 11th in defensive efficiency field goal percentage. This is also a club that ranks 21st in the country in offensive field goal percentage. Texas is a very good team but ranks 291st in the country in letting the opposition get to the line. Entering here off five straight victories, we expect the Longhorns to take this opponent for granted. We’ve already seen Texas no show plenty of times this season. PLAY ABILENE CHRISTIAN |
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03-18-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks +126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 126 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
66 Arizona at Anaheim In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Arizona ranking 27th and Anaheim at 29th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are -0.28 and the Ducks -0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 24th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.09 and the Ducks +5.50. So Anaheim is due for some positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 9th and the Ducks 25th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -8.32 and Anaheim -6.15. Once again the host is in for a large regression. It’s rare to find a significant road favorite with these terrible advanced stats. Time to step out with a Best Bet on the host. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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03-16-21 | Islanders -102 v. Capitals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
25 NY Islanders at Washington Looking to back the red hot Islanders in this one. Washington played last night at Buffalo, so its the second of a back to back situation. But more importantly Washington is winning lately but against some of the lesser teams in the division, Buffalo, New Jersey and Philadelphia. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Islanders rank 3rd and the Capitals 7th. In xG/60 we find NY at +0.51 and Washington at +0.10. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 17th and the Capitals 11th. Looking at xG/60 NY is +6.87 and Washington +6.35. So positive regression is on the side of the visitor. Looking at the Penalty Kill we see the Islanders 7th and the Capitals 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 NY is -5.48 and Washington -5.22. Slightly better for the host. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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03-12-21 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 82-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
527 Cleveland at New Orleans The Cavaliers were playing solid ball before the All-Star Break, and could be fully healthy for the first time all season tonight. Larry Nance Jr is back in action after having hand surgery. Also Garland and Love have been updated to questionable. Kevin Love is still a quality player when he is able to stay healthy, and he and Garland both practiced fully yesterday. New Orleans does one thing well, crash the offensive glass. But Cleveland is a team that is built to keep the opposition off the glass, especially if Love gets some minutes tonight. Cleveland is the fresher team and didn’t have anyone participating in the weekend festivities. Great spot for the Cavaliers to take this to the wire. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
636 California & Stanford The Bears have dropped 11 of 12 heading into the conference tournament. They have already lost twice to Stanford 76-70 and 70-55. In looking at the advanced stats those were two games California really wasn’t overly competitive. Stanford has dropped four straight heading into this tourney, with the last game being the worst advanced stats game of the season. An embarrassing 79-42 loss at USC. The Cardinal is facing a team they are extremely confident against, and they take out a can of whoop ass on the Bears tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-10-21 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
639 Nebraska & Penn State The Cornhuskers are 7-19 but our numbers show them with a 9-17 record based on the advanced stats. We backed them last time out against Northwestern and had a nice cover. Are they a good team? No. But it all comes down to value when betting on sports. Penn State is 10-13 and off back to back wins over Minnesota and Maryland. But everyone is beating the Golden Gophers right now, and the Terrapins win wasn’t fully deserved. When looking at the advanced stats and shot selection, Maryland was the much better team. These two have played twice thus far and Penn State has outscored Nebraska 147-145. No way this line should be this high. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-09-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6 | Top | 72-48 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
814 Iona & Quinnipiac The Gaels ended the season in fine fashion sweeping Monmouth. They come in to this tourney after posting an 8-5 record on the regular season. The Bobcats beat Iona 74-70 in their only meeting, and we see no reason why they can’t do it again. Despite the 9-12 regular season record, the advanced shooting stats say this is a 13 win team. Quinnipiac deserved a better record based on shot selection for themselves and their opponents. They enter this contest off a 66-64 loss to St Peter’s, a game they outplayed the Peacocks. This line is too high as we have these two much closer in talent. PLAY QUINNIPIAC |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +1.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
786 Northern Kentucky & Oakland The Norse have been very fortunate to have the 14-10 record they do. When factoring shot selection and advanced stats this team plays more like a 10 or 11 win team. Tuesday Northern Kentucky knocked off Detroit 70-69, but the game could have and probably should have turned out differently. They had a 42.4 offensive rebounding percentage, the fourth best of the season. They held Detroit to a second best 14.3 free throw rate. You have to tip your cap to the Golden Grizzlies who started the year playing Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This is not a team that will be intimidated by these surroundings. The advanced stats see this as a 14 win team, not the 11 win club that the current record shows. Oakland has a recent 7-2 record when playing teams ranked 200th and higher. The two losses were in double overtime. We have Northern Kentucky currently ranked 206th. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +100 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
42 Vegas at Minnesota The Knights have the longest winning streak in the league, with the Wild contributing to that streak. But if you watched that series the games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find both teams having great success. The Knights rank 5th and the Wild 4th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play the Knights are +0.12 and the Wild +0.52. On the Power Play Vegas has a solid advantage in ranking at 19th to dead last 31st for the Wild. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.66 and Minnesota +6.10. Closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Penalty Kill we find both teams having success. Vegas ranks 3rd and the Wild are 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.23 and the Wild -4.42. So we can expect a better performance for the Wild. Give us the Wild here to get back into the win column, as Vegas is a bit fat and happy to trust them in the road favorite role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-07-21 | Nebraska +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
737 Nebraska at Northwestern It’s been an ugly season for the Cornhuskers, but they had been playing more competitive at least until Thursday. That’s when they suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 102-64 defeat at Iowa. Northwestern had lost 13 straight games before knocking off Minnesota and Maryland. But the advanced stats show the Wildcats should have lost to Minnesota. Sure the Wildcats have three more wins on the season, but is this line really indicative of the talent on these two teams. We don’t think so, give us the Huskers off an embarrassing loss. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
644 Butler at Creighton Butler survived the earlier home meeting 70-66 in overtime. But were a bit lucky to do so when checking out the advanced stats. Creighton has dropped two straight including a 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday. Looking at the advanced stats in that game we see it was by far the worst performance for the Blue Jays this season. We expect a big rebound from Creighton in this one, as they can’t afford another loss to a middling team. Especially considering their Big Dance seed. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-03-21 | Stanford +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-79 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
699 Stanford at USC The Tree had little problem scoring on this USC defense in the last meeting. Making 20 of 36 from two point range, and 7 of 16 from distance. It was a very poor 15.8 free throw rate that cost Stanford the game. Coming off two straight games against Oregon where the Cardinal really struggled to get to the line, we expect a squad on a mission tonight. USC has lost three of four with the lone win coming at home against Oregon. The Trojans were really pumped for that game because of how hot the Ducks have been this season. Despite back to back losses, we can’t see USC being overly motivated to run the score up here. Not with UCLA, their big rival on deck. This is also senior night and USC has three players to honor. We like to fade teams in this situation, as it takes the players away from their normal routine. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-02-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Nashville Getting quite a bit of line value here with the visitor. In G+-/60 in 5x5 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Predators are 29th. In xG/60 Carolina is +0.28 and Nashville +0.03. So Nashville is playing much better than its results, yet still well behind in this matchup. On the Power Play Carolina ranks 1st and Nashville 22nd. Looking at xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.84, while the Preds are 5.79. Better than the actual ranking for the host, but still far behind the league leader. On the Penalty Kill we find the Hurricanes ranking 9th and the Predators 28th. Via xG/60 Carolina is -3.86, Nashville -6.29. That’s the major difference as Nashville is horrendous on the penalty kill. Let’s lay it with confidence. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-02-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
610 Wake Forest at Pittsburgh Wake has dropped 13 of 16 in conference action this season. One of the three victories came against this Pittsburgh squad. In that game the Demon Deacons shot 15 of 32 from distance, and had a 59.8 effective field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of nine, including five straight. But every one of those five losses were by seven points or less. With a trip to Clemson to end the regular season, the Panthers need this victory to gain double digit victories. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
845 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Quick home and home revenge game for the Sooners, who just lost at home to the Cowboys 94-90 in overtime. It’s just the second home loss of the season for the Sooners. In that game Oklahoma was held to a season low offensive rebounding percentage. State has now won four straight games heading into this rematch. But the advanced stats say this team was fortunate to win the last two contests, both overtime victories. We love Lon Kruger as a coach and expect his team to have an additional spark here. The Sooners have dropped two straight and have Texas on deck. This is a must win for the visitor. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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02-27-21 | Furman -1.5 v. Wofford | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
735 Furman at Wofford The Paladins have won four straight and haven’t played a bad game since the 81-71 loss to Winthrop in mid-December. But there is one game i’m sure they have circled, tonight’s matchup with Wofford. You see the Terriers are the only team to beat Furman in Timmons Arena this year. In that game the Paladins had a season low free throw rate as the team just didn’t push the action. Wofford is coming off its best game of the season blowing out Western Carolina 80-56. You couldn’t ask for a better spot for the visitor. PLAY FURMAN |
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02-26-21 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona +8 | Top | 92-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
836 Southern Utah at Northern Arizona The Thunderbirds just beat the Lumberjacks 85-80 on Wednesday. Having now won six straight and 16 of 19 on the season, what is their motivation to run up a score here? Especially with a pretty good Portland State two game trip on deck. This is the final regular season game for the Lumberjacks. We don’t have to worry about any senior night distractions, as this team doesn’t have anyone graduating. Off three straight losses, including two uncompetitive games, you have to think you get a full effort from the host here. Much better spot play for the Lumberjacks. PLAY NORTHERN ARIZONA |
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02-25-21 | Stars v. Panthers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
4 Dallas at Florida Quick revenge game for the Panthers who were shutout last night 3-0. When looking at G+-/60 5x5 rankings Dallas is 8th and Florida is 10th. The Stars are +0.39, the Panthers +0.28. In xG/60 Dallas is +0.17 and Florida +0.29. So slight value on the host. Looking at Power Play numbers these two are tied at 9.8 xG/60 which ranks 7th. But in looking at the advanced stats we find Dallas at +6.40 and Florida at +8.23. A larger advantage for the host. Taking a look at the Penalty Kill units, we find the Stars ranked 20th at -7.28, and the Panthers 15th at -6.15. The advanced stats are -6.93 for Dallas and -6.02 for the Panthers. So once again Florida has the edge. That coupled with home loss revenge from last night puts us squarely on the host. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-24-21 | Wild +162 v. Avalanche | Top | 6-2 | Win | 162 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
89 Minnesota at Colorado Like the big underdog price here for the Wild, after Colorado played a tough four game series vs the Golden Knights. That was a huge series for both clubs as they are expected to be title contenders in the west. Looking at the numbers we find both teams slightly underrated in 5x5 play. Colorado with an xG/60 of +0.35 and Minnesota at +0.39. Colorado ranks 10th in Power Play G+-/60, Minnesota 25th. But the advanced stats has these two much closer. In xG/60 on the Power Play the Avalanche are +6.80, the Wild at +5.39. Looking at Penalty Killing these clubs are both excellent ranking 2 and 3 on the season. But the advanced numbers have Minnesota slightly better in xG/60 at -4.28 and Colorado at -6.21. These two clubs are very similar when looking at expected goals. That and the bad spot for the Avalanche put us squarely on the underdog here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
307323 McNeese State at SE Louisiana The Cowboys matchup very well with Southeastern Louisiana. In fact, in the earlier meeting they had the best PPP of the conference season. Unfortunately they lost 92-88 in what was a very even game. The Cowboys have played their best ball of the season as of late despite a 2-4 record. This team has been right there in every game except the 64-56 loss to Lamar. This is an undervalued team right now. The Lions of Southeastern Louisiana have had more success lately in the win/loss column. But when looking at the advanced stats they have been extremely inconsistent. The recent wins have been legit, but the losses were much worse than the final scores. For example last Saturday in an 86-84 overtime loss to Nichols State, the Lions were completely outplayed and should have lost by double digits in regulation. The host has been rather lucky as of late while the visitor has been better than the final scores indicate. We will gladly take the points with the Cowboys. PLAY MCNEESE STATE |
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02-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -16 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
754 Eastern Illinois at Murray State The Panthers of Eastern Illinois have had a disappointing season. They rank 303rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 290th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t get to the line ranking 331st in free throw rate, and when they get there they shoot 66.0% 295th in the country. But somehow they found a way to beat Murray State 74-68 back in early January. The Racers have won 8 of 11 games since that loss, as Murray State has turned around its season. With only SIU Edwardsville on deck after beating them by 29 on Monday, you know the Panthers have their full attention. This one should get ugly in a hurry. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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02-17-21 | Western Carolina +8 v. Chattanooga | Top | 81-89 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
681 Western Carolina at Chattanooga The Catamounts have really struggled in Southern Conference play. Posting a 2-10 record and losing to the Mocs 74-67 just two weeks ago. But despite the record Western has been very competitive this season, at least until Saturday when Furman took them to the woodshed in a 88-70 loss. They were actually fortunate in that contest, as the advanced numbers show it was the worst performance of the season for the Catamounts. What Mark Prosser’s team has done this season is bounce back from a bad performance. Chattanooga comes into this contest fat and happy. On a five game winning streak, including victories over East Tennessee State twice. Now they face the lowly Catamounts before taking on a home revenge contest against UNC Greensboro. Quite the sandwich game here for the host. Give us the points with the Catamounts to take this to the wire. PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA |
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02-15-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -166 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
88 Columbus at Carolina The Blue Jackets with a quick one game series with the Hurricanes a week after splitting two games at home. Both games were decided by a single tally in regulation. Columbus ranks 20th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action, being outscored by 0.22 goals. In looking at xGF/60 in 5x5 the Blue Jackets sit at -0.44. So they have been slightly lucky. Carolina ranks 7th in G+-/60 at +0.59 goals, while the xGF/60 in 5x5 action is 0.66. Neither team has given up a goal when on the power play with Columbus scoring 7 times, and Carolina 10 times. Columbus is -6 goals when on a penalty kill, the Hurricanes -8 goals. Carolina returns home after traveling to Chicago, Columbus and Dallas. This is just the fourth home game of the season for the host, currently 3-0 on the year. While we don’t normally like to back a team coming home from a road trip, the exception is a holiday such as Valentines Day. It’s a time to show appreciation for your wives and family, and that’s a positive thing. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-14-21 | South Dakota State -3 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 95-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
821 South Dakota State at Oral Roberts The Jackrabbits had a litter of mistakes yesterday in a 103-86 loss to Oral Roberts. The defense which had been only slightly below average simply didn’t give any effort. The 103 points allowed was a season high, besting the previous high of 84 in a win over Bradley. The 125.2 defensive PPP was also a season high, and they permitted 16 of 30 from downtown. This was also the lowest ranked team the Jackrabbits have lost to this season. Oral Roberts has a good offense, but this defense is ranked 306th in Adjusted Efficiency. This club simply does not have the defensive prowess to hold down the Jackrabbits in back to back games. South Dakota State has followed losses this season with wins by margins of 24, 3, 43 and 11 points. That includes a good Utah State team, and Big 12 participant Iowa State. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA STATE |
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02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars +109 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
74 Carolina at Dallas Dallas has beaten up on bad teams thus far, but have struggled when stepping up in class. But we did see a light at the end of the tunnel on Thursday. Despite the 5-3 loss, Dallas dominated play. Winning expected goals 3.90-3.39. Looking at the Money Puck Deserve to Win O’Meter, the Stars should have won 72.9% of games with those shooting stats. The teams are very similar on the penalty kill, but Dallas is superior on the power play. The Stars rank 10th in xGF% as opposed to Carolina which is 16th. Dallas is +14 goals with a player advantage, the Canes just +9. Look for Dallas to gain confidence off that defeat and even up this series. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-13-21 | UCLA v. Washington +9.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
744 UCLA at Washington Bruins have dropped three of four with the offense really struggling as of late. They did beat Washington in Mid-January 81-76 but only shot 20 of 50 from two point range. UCLA was just blown away at USC 66-48, then dropped a 81-73 decision to Washington State. A team the Bruins beat by 30 points just four weeks prior. No way we want to lay points with this squad at the moment. Washington is a bad basketball team but have been a competitive 3-5 SU at home. The offense has improved greatly as of late with five of nine games producing 59.6 or better EFG%. They can compete with this fading Bruins team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-12-21 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
845 Manhattan at Iona The Jaspers have dropped four straight, but were the better team last time out in a 71-69 overtime loss to Monmouth. Only one of the last seven losses was by more than 5 points, with three games going to overtime. This is a much better team that its record. The Gaels have won three straight, but have been nothing special other than ranking 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Manhattan is actually pretty good as well ranking 89th in that category. Plenty of value here on an underdog that is quietly staying under the radar. PLAY MANHATTAN |
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02-11-21 | Utah -5 v. California | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
713 Utah at California The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday. PLAY UTAH |
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02-10-21 | Bradley -1.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
671 Bradley at Valparaiso We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win. While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory. PLAY BRADLEY |
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02-09-21 | Jets v. Flames -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
22 Winnipeg at Calgary The Jets have a slightly positive 5x5 G+-/60 at 0.09, but looking at expected goals the deficit is more pronounced at -0.34. The Jets are 7-3-1 on the season but have only outscored the opposition in 5x5 23 to 21. The Flames are 5-5-1 on the year but have outscored the opposition 19 to 16 in 5x5 play. The Flames have a G+-/60 on 5x5 of 0.33. It holds up in expected goals at 0.27. We will back the host tonight in what is a very fair number. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
863 Oklahoma State at Kansas Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-07-21 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
801 Towson at College of Charleston The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests. PLAY TOWSON |
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02-06-21 | Grambling State +6.5 v. Southern | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
307029 Grambling at Southern The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting. PLAY GRAMBLING |
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02-06-21 | Nicholls State +2.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory. PLAY NICHOLLS STATE |
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02-06-21 | Charlotte -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-05-21 | Predators v. Panthers -126 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
26 Nashville at Florida The Panthers dominated play yesterday and let a win slip through their fingers. We expect a similar game with different results here. In 5x5 play this season the Preds are being outscored by 0.07 G/60, the expected goal differential is -0.05. Florida has been the much better team at +0.36 G/60, and an even better 0.42 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. The Panthers rank 9th in xGF% in 5x5 while the Preds sit 17th. Better team with motivation puts us squarely on the home squad. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +9 v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington 4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage. PLAY UL MONROE |
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02-05-21 | Akron v. Kent State -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
872 Akron at Kent State We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory. PLAY KENT STATE |
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02-03-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence | Top | 60-43 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
681 Seton Hall at Providence The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday. PLAY SETON HALL |
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02-02-21 | Morgan State v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
307306 Morgan State at Coppin State This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday. PLAY COPPIN STATE |
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02-02-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
838 UNLV at Nevada The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-31-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks +127 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 127 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
34 Columbus at Chicago By our numbers the Blue Jackets are one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 action they have produced a xGF% of 45.21 which ranks 27th, yet they have outscored the opposition 17 to 16. Chicago on the other hand have an xGF% of 48.21 but have been outscored 18 to 11. In Friday’s matchup Columbus won 2-1 but were completely dominated. Chicago had a whopping 69.86 xGF% and should have won the game 3.41 to 1.47 according to Evolving Hockey. Now with a day off we expect a better outcome for the Blackhawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-29-21 | Cavs -1 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
573 Cleveland at New York Third meeting between these two this year with each team grabbing a victory. In the first meeting the Knicks shot lights out from distance in a 95-86 victory. What made that so surprising was that the vast majority of those threes were defended very well. In the second meeting New York wasn’t nearly as lucky and Cleveland won 106-103. Now almost fully healthy we look for Cleveland to once again get the better of the Knicks. New York returns home for the first time after playing four games on the west coast in six days. We all know how hard it is the first time back in town from a family situation. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive turnover percentage which can really be a problem against the 1st ranked turnover defense of the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s offensive success is predicated on turnovers as this team also has great success with deflections. The guard combo for the visitor has great speed which leads to easy baskets for the Cavs. We expect that to happen often here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
552 Oklahoma City at Phoenix Thunder are playing its third game in for days all in different cities. They just broke a three game losing streak in Portland last night. This is the final game of a five game trip, and may be satisfied after that victory last night. Phoenix hasn’t played the past three days, so this is a team in much better position to play wire to wire. Especially when you consider this is their fifth game in the last 18 days. Coming off back to back overtime losses hosting Denver, the Suns have much more motivation for a victory tonight. The Thunder are dead last in offensive rebound rate, which should be a major deal against a Suns team that clears the boards defensively in the Top 10. PLAY PHOENIX |
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01-26-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
621 Oklahoma at Texas Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-24-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-141 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
571 Cleveland at Boston The Cavaliers continue to be overlooked just because of the name on the front of the jersey. This team is a money maker and are now almost fully healthy with Dellavedova and Love remaining out. The trade with the Nets made this one of the deeper teams in the league. This club leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage and tipped passes. That’s a concern against a Boston team ranking 20th in offensive turnover percentage. The entire team has been buying in defensively, and now the starting backcourt is fully healthy. Jason Tatum remains doubtful for the Celtics as well. We feel the visitor wins this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-23-21 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-22-21 | Sabres -109 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
15 Buffalo at Washington Senators will be short handed tonight with the Covid news affecting key players. Even at full strength this team has been a bit overrated this year. Washington ranks 23rd in 5 on 5 xGF%. They have outscored the opposition 5 on 5 12-7 but are only showing 45.79% in xGF%. Now without key pieces we expect this team to struggle. As opposed to Washington, Buffalo is a team we want to play on. Despite the 1-3-0 record this team ranks 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 xGF% of 58.61. The Sabres have been outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5, but deserve a much better result. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-22-21 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +4 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
836 Georgia State at Appalachian State The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road. App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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01-20-21 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
712 Northwestern at Wisconsin After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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01-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings +160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 160 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
072 Columbus at Detroit Really like the way Detroit played yesterday despite the loss. This is a team that doesn’t have a great deal of talent, but has been very feisty thus far. Been looking for the chance to fade the Blue Jackets, and this looks like a terrific squad. Clear fade of a team we feel is overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-17-21 | Tarleton St v. Weber State -12 | Top | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
842 Tarleton State at Weber State This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host. PLAY WEBER STATE |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |