Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-21 | Utah -5 v. California | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
713 Utah at California The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday. PLAY UTAH |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -2 | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
738 Purdue at Minnesota The Boilermakers are 3-5 SU on the road, but only one victory came by more than two points. Purdue crushed the Golden Gophers 81-62 just 12 days ago at home. In that game Purdue made 8 of 15 from distance. But this team hasn’t had the same success shooting from three on the road. Just 49 of 170 away from Mackey Arena. Minnesota is 12-1 straight up at home this year. All victories by 5 or more points. After snapping a three game losing streak last time out against Nebraska, we feel the Golden Gophers come to play here. They avenged a loss earlier when pounding Michigan by 18. Minnesota brings that revenge mark to 2-0 here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-10-21 | Bradley -1.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
671 Bradley at Valparaiso We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win. While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory. PLAY BRADLEY |
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02-10-21 | Wichita State v. UCF +2 | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
654 Wichita State at Central Florida The Shockers recently knocked off the Golden Knights 93-88 in overtime. In that contest they really struggled to control UCF in the paint, as the Golden Knights shot 29 of 43 from two point range. In fact, the 62.3 effective field goal percentage was the worst defensive outing of the season for Wichita State. Central Florida has lost 8 of 10 as of late, but are coming off a confidence building win at Tulsa. The only home losses for the host came against Houston and SMU. We like the Golden Knights to shock Wichita State. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-10-21 | Chattanooga +4.5 v. Wofford | 78-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
667 Chattanooga at Wofford I’m sure the Mocs have had this game circled after being beaten at home by Wofford in the earlier meeting. In that game they shot just 4 of 21 from distance, and allowed a 40.5 offensive rebounding percentage to the Terriers. Keep in mind Chattanooga rank 78th in the country in three point percentage, and 77th keeping the opposition off the glass. Wofford is struggling a bit as of late. Losing to VMI in overtime on this court, and squeaking out a 75-67 win at Furman. While the final margin was seven points, the Terriers were lucky to come away with a win. They held the Paladins to a season second best 9.4 free throw rate. PLAY CHATTANOOGA |
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02-09-21 | Syracuse v. NC State -1 | 77-68 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
612 Syracuse at NC State Orange are really struggling as of late and are coming off its worst effort of the season. They have dropped 5 of its last 9 games. One of those victories was just ten days ago in a 76-73 home victory over these Wolfpack. NC State has had troubles of their own as of late dropping 6 of 8. But they deserved a better outcome at Syracuse, as advanced stats show they should have pulled out that victory. After a satisfying win at Boston College we expect State to get its revenge in this one. PLAY NC STATE |
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02-09-21 | Notre Dame +8 v. Duke | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
607 Notre Dame at Duke Big revenge game for the Irish after losing at home 75-65 in Mid-December. This club is starting to heat up as of late with wins in 4 of 6. But when looking at the advanced stats Notre Dame should have gone 5-1 in those contests. They are coming off an 82-80 loss at Georgia Tech, a game in which the Yellow Jackets shot 7 of 14 from distance and 28 of 46 from two point range. That’s the second best offensive effective field goal percentage of the season for Georgia Tech. Duke for some reason has been taking money today. This is still a team that has lost 5 of 7 overall, with just one win in its last seven games by more than this spread. It’s also a likely letdown spot after playing arch rival North Carolina on Saturday. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
863 Oklahoma State at Kansas Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-07-21 | Indiana State v. Northern Iowa -2 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
818 Indiana State at Northern Iowa The Sycamores are riding high winning seven straight before this quick rematch with Northern Iowa. But Indiana State relies too much on four players who play at least 68% of the available minutes. We realize these are young college kids, but after winning seven straight games how invested will they be for this contest. Northern Iowa is having a down season by anyones standards. Posting a 5-12 record on the season and 3-8 in conference action. The one thing this club does very well is keep the opposition off the offensive glass, ranking 4th in the country in that regard. UNI is also a very deep team with six players getting half or more available minutes each game. Look for that depth to be the difference here. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -5 v. Nevada | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
821 Boise State at Nevada The Broncos were upset yesterday in Reno 74-72. That’s just the third loss of the season for Boise State. This club is really tough on the boards ranking 102nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 5th keeping the opposition off the glass. In turn they are 34th in the country in two point shooting percentage. That wasn’t the case yesterday as Boise only made 15 of 30 from short distance, while the Wolf Pack cashed in on 22 of 35 from two point range. That all comes down to lack of effort and weak physicality, two things we believe the Broncos bring today. Nevada is a good team, but not the type of squad that is going to sweep a superior team on back to back nights. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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02-07-21 | Drake v. Valparaiso +13 | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
808 Drake at Valparaiso The Bulldogs continued its undefeated season yesterday but it’s getting harder and harder for this team to cover the number. In four of its last five games Drake only won by single digits. It hasn’t had a good shooting game from distance since January 4th against Southern Illinois. Valpo started the season going 3-9, but have played much better ball as of late. It’s 6-3-3 lately with only one loss coming by more than seven points. Our numbers show that with season average shooting the Crusaders would have won 4 of those 6 games. They play this very tight once again. PLAY VALPARAISO |
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02-07-21 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
801 Towson at College of Charleston The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests. PLAY TOWSON |
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02-07-21 | Iowa -2.5 v. Indiana | 65-67 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
797 Iowa at Indiana The Hawkeyes are in a bit of a slump right now losing 3 of 4 heading into this revenge game against Indiana. Iowa dropped an 81-69 decision on the 21st of January, a game that started this down trend. In that game they had an effective field goal percentage of 42.1, the lowest mark of the season. Iowa also shot 5 of 23 from downtown, its worst shooting from distance game. Keep in mind the Hawkeyes rank 20th in the nation in three point percentage. Indiana had a 66.0 free throw rate, which was the worst of the year for Iowa, and the best for the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers also shot a solid 8 of 17 from distance, the second best long range shooting game of the season for the Hoosiers. Iowa has struggled defensively as of late, but on the season they rank middle of the pack in defensive adjusted efficiency. Important game for the visitor here. PLAY IOWA |
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02-06-21 | Grambling State +6.5 v. Southern | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
307029 Grambling at Southern The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting. PLAY GRAMBLING |
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02-06-21 | Nicholls State +2.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory. PLAY NICHOLLS STATE |
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02-06-21 | Creighton -4.5 v. Marquette | 71-68 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
701 Creighton at Marquette The Bluejays enter this contest off an embarrassing home loss to Georgetown. Creighton permitted 10 of 21 shooting from downtown against the Hoyas. That was their second worst performance in that regard this season. This is also a revenge game as it lost to Marquette at home 89-84 in Mid-December. In that contest the Golden Eagles had a PPP on 132.6, by far the worst defensive performance for the Bluejays this season. To put it in perspective, the second worst PPP was 117.2. Marquette shot 12 of 21 from downtown in that contest, once again the worst defensive mark of the season for Creighton. Marquette has dropped 3 of 4 lately with the only win coming by 3 hosting Butler in its last game. The Golden Eagles have only won two games all season on this court against Top 100 opposition. Take the road favorite here. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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02-06-21 | Charlotte -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-06-21 | Montana v. Portland State +3 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
668 Montana at Portland State The Grizzlies have reeled off 5 of 7 victories as of late, including an overtime victory over Portland State on Thursday. That’s three overtimes Montana has played in its last two games. The Grizzlies held the Vikings to 6 of 29 from distance in that contest. When backing Montana at this point of the season heavy negative regression is in store. This team ranks 8th in college hoops in free throw percentage at 79.3. But the real regression comes from the opposition, as the Grizzlies opponents are shooting just 61.1% from the foul stripe, the worst in all of basketball. Obviously since there is no defense involved in free throw shooting Montana has been extremely lucky. This is also the fourth straight road game for this club. Portland State has won 2 of 3 as of late with the only loss in overtime to these Grizzlies. This is also the fifth straight home game for the Vikings. Give us the avenging host in this one. PLAY PORTLAND STATE |
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02-06-21 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -4 | 55-57 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
638 Louisiana Tech at North Texas Quick revenge spot for the Mean Green after dropping a 68-63 contest at home yesterday to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs dominated inside yesterday hitting 23 of 36 from two point range, while allowing only 17 of 29. That’s not what was expected as North Texas on the season ranks 32nd offensively from that distance and 54th defensively from two point range. We look for the host to bounce back in this one. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +9 v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington 4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage. PLAY UL MONROE |
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02-05-21 | Akron v. Kent State -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
872 Akron at Kent State We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory. PLAY KENT STATE |
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02-05-21 | Wagner v. St Francis NY -2.5 | 84-81 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
307364 Wagner at St Francis NY The Seahawks beat the Terriers 74-67 last night, but were very fortunate to do so. They held St Francis to an offensive ppp of 98.0, the second best defensive effort of the season for the visitor. That’s totally out of character for Wagner as they rank 290th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. The Seahawks had its second highest offensive rebounding percentage of the season, and by far its top free throw rate of the campaign. The 26 of 45 shooting from 2 point range was also a season high. St Francis NY is now off back to back losses for only the second time this season. They followed the last losing streak with a 19 point rout. After three straight bad performances from distance we look for the Terriers to have better success on Friday. PLAY ST FRANCIS NY |
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02-04-21 | Tennessee State +2.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | 60-68 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
725 Tennessee State at SIU Edwardsville The Tigers come in with a very disappointing 3-12 record. But they slightly outplayed SIU in the earlier 67-65 loss at home. They had the higher EFG% in that contest 47.1 to 42.4. SIU Edwardsville has the better record at 6-8, but they haven’t won a home game all season. They are 0-3 in the Vadalbene Center. Losing all three games against teams we rate in the 300’s. There is no way we can trust this team laying points at home. When two bad teams face each other points are the way to go. Give us the Tigers to pounce on this victory. PLAY TENNESSEE STATE |
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02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
574 Minnesota at San Antonio The Timberwolves haven’t won a road game since the second game of the season. They almost broke that streak last time out in Cleveland in a 100-98 loss. In fact, they may be feeling pretty good about themselves after outscored the Cavs 207-204 in that home and home series. But we’re not buying it as Minnesota ranks dead last in the league defensively the past 14 days. This is also a team that is 30th, dead last, on the year offensively. San Antonio is in the final game of a five game home stand. They are off back to back blowout losses to the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the hottest teams in the league. This is a big step down in talent tonight for the Spurs. San Antonio is in a good scheduling spot as well, having had yesterday off and don’t play against until the 6th at Houston. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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02-03-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence | Top | 60-43 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
681 Seton Hall at Providence The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday. PLAY SETON HALL |
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02-02-21 | Morgan State v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
307306 Morgan State at Coppin State This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday. PLAY COPPIN STATE |
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02-02-21 | Akron v. Toledo -5.5 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
618 Akron at Toledo Zips were able to defeat the Rockets in overtime 95-94 in the previous meeting. That was on the heels of back to back losses to Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. That victory turned around the season for Akron who has since run off six straight victories. The Zips are just 2-3 SU away from The JAR this season. Akron has their second highest offensive ppp in that previous contest. While allowing a season high 127.9 defensive ppp to the Rockets. Toledo is undefeated at John F Savage Arena, and would have had a 13 game winning streak if not for that previous loss. Look for Toledo to get even with the Zips on Tuesday. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-02-21 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +11.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
626 West Virginia at Iowa State The Mountaineers won the first meeting 70-65, but the game was played virtually evenly. The Cyclones dominated inside with a 19 of 32 mark on two pointers. West Virginia has struggled in the last eight overall games, going 4-4 with only two wins being by more than three points. Iowa State isn’t a very good team this year, dropping 9 of 11. But they have played a very tough slate with six games against Top 40 opposition. Off five straight losses the Cyclones will be playing with their hair on fire here. Just too many points for West Virginia to lay on the road. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-02-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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02-02-21 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. NJIT | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
307307 MD Baltimore County at NJIT Early start on the added board slate. The Retrievers lost to the Highlanders last night, shooting a miserable 11 of 31 from two point range. On the season they are at 50.3% from that range. Obviously it was the worst shooting of the season from inside. NJIT on the other hand had their best shooting game from two point range all season. That’s not to be expected again as they only hit 44.5% from that range all season. This team ranks 310th in the nation from that range. Look for the better team to be more physical here as the Retrievers fetch and early afternoon winner. PLAY MD BALTIMORE COUNTY |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
838 UNLV at Nevada The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-30-21 | Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech | 51-65 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
719 Virginia at Virginia Tech The first meeting of the season between these two was postponed. Now they meet in Blacksburg where Evan Miya rates this home court 244th in the season. The Hokies have a lofty 12-3 record but are only 1-2 vs Top 50 opposition. The losses coming to Penn State by 20 and Syracuse by 18. Virginia has won 10 of 11 with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. This is a team that started slow, being shocked in its second game vs San Francisco. We’ve since learned the Dons are a Top 100 team. This is a strong matchup for the visitor, as what the Hokies do best offensively, the Cavaliers do better defensively. The number fits right into what we were looking for. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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01-30-21 | Utah +8.5 v. Colorado | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
645 Utah at Colorado Early start in the PAC 12 should help provide value to the underdog. Utah comes in with a 6-7 record on the season, but Bart Torvik shows that bad luck has been consistent for the Utes. His numbers show that Utah was only outplayed in three games this season. So you would expect some positive regression for this team we have much better than their record. Colorado steps up in class here after playing Washington State and Washington. Keep in mind despite the strong record the Buffaloes are only 4-3 vs Top 100 opposition. Too many points to lay here in this afternoon affair. PLAY UTAH |
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01-29-21 | Cavs -1 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
573 Cleveland at New York Third meeting between these two this year with each team grabbing a victory. In the first meeting the Knicks shot lights out from distance in a 95-86 victory. What made that so surprising was that the vast majority of those threes were defended very well. In the second meeting New York wasn’t nearly as lucky and Cleveland won 106-103. Now almost fully healthy we look for Cleveland to once again get the better of the Knicks. New York returns home for the first time after playing four games on the west coast in six days. We all know how hard it is the first time back in town from a family situation. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive turnover percentage which can really be a problem against the 1st ranked turnover defense of the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s offensive success is predicated on turnovers as this team also has great success with deflections. The guard combo for the visitor has great speed which leads to easy baskets for the Cavs. We expect that to happen often here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-29-21 | Monmouth v. Niagara +4 | 77-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
832 Monmouth at Niagara Hawks are playing very well as of late winning four straight games. But keep in mind when looking at its 7-4 record, this team has played 9 of those 11 games at home. Monmouth hasn’t traveled since January 4th at Siena for two games. They lost to the Saints in both those games. So we have a winless on the road Hawks team laying points on the road. This is a team that ranks 304th in the country in letting opponents get to the line. That’s especially concerning when the vast majority of games were played in friendly confines of the OceanFirst Bank Center. Yes, this is a step up game for the Purple Eagles after facing Qunnipiac, Manhattan and Rider. But this is just the fifth home game of the season for Greg Paulus’ crew. They are 3-1 straight up at home this year. The early line move towards the Hawks is overblown, give us the Saints as a home underdog. PLAY NIAGARA |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
552 Oklahoma City at Phoenix Thunder are playing its third game in for days all in different cities. They just broke a three game losing streak in Portland last night. This is the final game of a five game trip, and may be satisfied after that victory last night. Phoenix hasn’t played the past three days, so this is a team in much better position to play wire to wire. Especially when you consider this is their fifth game in the last 18 days. Coming off back to back overtime losses hosting Denver, the Suns have much more motivation for a victory tonight. The Thunder are dead last in offensive rebound rate, which should be a major deal against a Suns team that clears the boards defensively in the Top 10. PLAY PHOENIX |
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01-27-21 | Miami-FL +11 v. Florida State | 59-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
659 Miami Florida at Florida State The Hurricanes are a much better team than its record suggests. Based on ShotQuality numbers this team is one of the most unlucky in the nation. Miami has won only six games but based on the type of shots taken, as well as the player skill for those shots, the Hurricanes should have 9.4 victories. Florida State on the other hand has been extremely lucky. Having won 9 games where the shot numbers show a 7.4 win team. Florida State no doubt will win the three point battle, but Miami does enough things well enough to stay under this number. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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01-26-21 | Butler +5.5 v. Connecticut | 51-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
633 Butler at Connecticut Revenge game for the Bulldogs who lost to the Huskies at home 72-60. In that game UConn shot 10 of 21 from long distance. Butler ranks 17th in the country in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. This is also a team that should see some positive regression at the free throw line, ranking 340th with a 60.8 free throw percentage. We’ve made money on the Huskies this year, but the team has gotten a bit overrated. Its terrific offensive rebounding edge won’t have the same affect here. Off back to back losses many will look for a bounce back here from the host, but this is the 284th ranked home court via Evan Miya. ShotQuality states that the Bulldogs are an underrated bunch, projected to have won 10 games instead of the 8-7 record they possess. Connecticut has been a bit lucky with its 8-3 mark. They are only in the 86th percentile offensively, and 91st defensively. Nice value on the road dog here. PLAY BUTLER |
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01-26-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
621 Oklahoma at Texas Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-24-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-141 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
571 Cleveland at Boston The Cavaliers continue to be overlooked just because of the name on the front of the jersey. This team is a money maker and are now almost fully healthy with Dellavedova and Love remaining out. The trade with the Nets made this one of the deeper teams in the league. This club leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage and tipped passes. That’s a concern against a Boston team ranking 20th in offensive turnover percentage. The entire team has been buying in defensively, and now the starting backcourt is fully healthy. Jason Tatum remains doubtful for the Celtics as well. We feel the visitor wins this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
558 Philadelphia at Detroit Over the last 12 days the Sixers have beaten Miami twice and Boston twice, two of its main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown. They just beat Boston yesterday at home and now must travel as a substantial road favorite. Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS on the road this year and were terrible away from home last year as well. Detroit is just 3-12 on the season but are much better than those numbers suggest. The Pistons have played the 5th toughest schedule in the league, as opposed to the 24th toughest for the Sixers. The Detroit defense ranks 3rd in the league in turnovers, and that is a major weakness for the visitor. Philly ranks 28th in offensive turnover percentage. Nice spot for the home dog here as the Sixers likely go through the motions. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-23-21 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-23-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +9 | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
642 Baylor at Oklahoma State Tough stretch of games for the Bears who just beat Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma. They are 13-0 on the season, and along with Gonzaga they are elite. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten. Oklahoma State are 9-3 on the year and just 3-3 in conference. But the three losses have been by 1 to TCU, 3 at Texas and 3 vs West Virginia. While this is the third game in eight days for the Bears, the Cowboys haven’t played since the 12th. That gives Mike Boynton and his crew plenty of time to game plan for this contest. We will back the substantial home dog to take this to the wire. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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01-22-21 | Hawks -6 v. Wolves | 116-98 | Win | 102 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
541 Atlanta at Minnesota The Hawks just beat this Timberwolves team 108-97 just four days ago in Atlanta. Now back to .500 on the season at 7-7, it’s time for Atlanta to get a very important victory. With Milwaukee, the LA Clippers and Brooklyn on deck, this is a must win game for the visitor. Atlanta ranks 2nd in the league on the offensive glass, while Minnesota is dead last in keeping opponents off the offensive boards. That will be a huge edge for Atlanta with key front court plays out for this Minnesota team which is still missing three key contributors. The T-Wolves simply don’t have the scoring ability to keep this close, especially when your defense ranks 29th in points per possession. PLAY ATLANTA |
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01-22-21 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +4 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
836 Georgia State at Appalachian State The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road. App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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01-21-21 | Portland +22.5 v. BYU | 67-95 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
757 Portland at BYU The Pilots are not a good team and are 0-4 in conference. They enter play having dropped five straight games. But the spot screams Portland here. BYU just played San Francisco, St Mary’s and Gonzaga, with a home and home with Pepperdine on deck. They have won 6 of 7 with the only loss at Gonzaga. After facing the top of the conference we can’t see the Cougars getting excited to play the Pilots here, with its next game coming up on Saturday. BYU is clearly the better team, but this line is a high threshold to overcome. PLAY PORTLAND |
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01-20-21 | Magic -3.5 v. Wolves | 97-96 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
513 Orlando at Minnesota Two teams desperately looking for a victory. Orlando has really struggled to put the ball in the basket as of late with the team suffering key injuries. But the Magic have done a nice job with turnovers ranking 5th offensively. The Magic have also done a fine job of keeping the opposition off the offense glass ranking 4th. Minnesota on the other hand have struggled keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. Especially now without its best player Towns who is down with Covid. The Timberwolves have beeb a sieve defensively, so we expect the Magic even shorthanded to have offensive success. PLAY ORLANDO |
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01-20-21 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
712 Northwestern at Wisconsin After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
572 New Orleans at Utah Pelicans finally got back into the win column on Sunday with a 128-123 win over Sacramento. Now they face Utah in elevation for two games over a three day span. This team is excellent on the boards, but struggle from the exterior. Utah comes in with five straight victories for this six game home stand. The Jazz have been pounding the offensive boards this year, and have been terrific defensively. Ranking 1st in defensive effective field goal percentage and free throw rate. This club defends well without fouling, a unique trait that’s hard to find. Utah is terrific at shooting from distance and the visitor gives up the most 3 pointers in the league. PLAY UTAH |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +8 v. Utah State | 64-83 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
635 Colorado State at Utah State Strong spot here for the Rams who have won 8 of 9 with the lone loss coming at San Diego State. Utah State is undefeated in conference and they just swept San Diego State at home. Keep in mind there were many questions about the Aggies heading into that two game stretch. They had already lost to VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition in their victories. Now off back to back show me games, we can’t help but think this team is a bit overrated. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-17-21 | Tarleton St v. Weber State -12 | Top | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
842 Tarleton State at Weber State This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host. PLAY WEBER STATE |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
308 Tampa Bay at New Orleans We’ve watched both of the previous meetings and it’s clear that this is a bad matchup for Tom Brady and the Bucs. He doesn’t have the ability to throw the ball long with accuracy against this defense. A stop unit very much superior to the Bucs defense. Drew Brees is much like Brady, in that he doesn’t have the arm strength. But he has been playing in this offense for years, and he never was a gun slinger. Teams that have beaten the opposition twice previously have won over 65% in this third meeting. The better team at home gets it done. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
816 Western Kentucky at Marshall Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-17-21 | Penn State +5.5 v. Purdue | 72-80 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
807 Penn State at Purdue Extremely important game for the Nittany Lions who are already 0-3 in conference. State is 3-4 overall on the season with two of those losses in overtime, and a four point defeat at Michigan. The only time Penn State wasn’t competitive was in a 98-81 home loss to Illinois. Purdue sits at 9-5 on the year and 4-3 in Big 10 action. Off back to back wins over Michigan State and Indiana. This is the first time the Boiler Makers have played at home since Christmas Day. Off four straight road games including back to back victories, this could very well be a letdown spot for the host. Purdue has the fourth worst home court advantage in the league according to the excellent site evanmiya.com. Our numbers show plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-16-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -17 | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
770 Kansas State at Texas The Wildcats have been a major disappointment this season. This club has a defensive efficiency field goal percentage of 54.6, ranking 312th in the country. It doesn’t defend well from anywhere on the court. We’ve been really impressed by this Texas squad, both offensively and defensively. Coming off a last second loss to Texas Tech, after blowing a sizable lead. We expect Shaka Smart and his club to play with added intensity here. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-16-21 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +6 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
760 Arizona State at Oregon State Been fading the Sun Devils all season with solid success. That continues on Saturday as we simply do not trust this team as a road favorite. It’s one and done for this team as it ranks 329th in the nation in offensive rebounding success. Coming off a game in which it held USC to 3 of 22 from distance and still lost by nine points, this continues to be a fade team. Oregon State is off a blowout home loss to Arizona, the only noncompetitive game of the season for the Beavers. With a tough game with USC on deck, this is the game the Beavers need to have. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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01-15-21 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Southern Miss | 54-84 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
881 Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss Blue Raiders are a bad offensive team, no doubt about it. But this team does a fine job defensively. They rank 2nd in the country defending the three. Overall 60th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers with a 19th ranking. Southern Miss isn’t any better offensively. Turnovers are a major problem for the Golden Eagles, ranking 322nd offensively and 292nd defensively. We trust the much better defense with a big ball handling advantage. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -5 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
852 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-14-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
71 Anaheim at Las Vegas The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches. PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2 |
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01-14-21 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
745 Northern Colorado at Idaho Backing the Bears here off three straight losses including an overtime affair last time out vs Montana State. At 2-4 in conference it’s time to get right for Steve Smiley’s bunch, against a very bad Idaho squad. The Vandals rank 319th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 331st in defensive adjusted efficiency. If Idaho falls behind big it will be tough to battle back as they don’t shoot many threes, and Northern Colorado is 59th in the country defending from distance. PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO |
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01-14-21 | Longwood v. Winthrop -16 | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
307026 Longwood at Winthrop This game all comes down to tempo. The Lancers are a slow paced team that struggles to defend at the rim. Withrop on the other hand has superior athletes and leads the nation in adjusted tempo. The host will be able to dictate the pace, and the visitor has been terrible in transition defense. Lay it! PLAY WINTHROP |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
718 Stanford at Utah The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back. Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right. PLAY UTAH |
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01-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
696 Texas A&M at Mississippi State Aggies are 6-4 on the season but only 1-3 in conference action. They are 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. The defense when stepping up in class has been very poor. In fact, 3 of the last 4 opponents had points per possession numbers of 1.18, 1.07 and 1.22. This is a team that ranks 335th in offensive turnover percentage. Free throw percentage should see major regression for both teams here. A&M rank 9th in defensive percentage at 61.1, while Miss State ranks 310th offensively at 63.2%. Considering Ben Howland’s team ranks 19th in 3 pointers and 177th in two pointers, you would expect much better shooting from the line. With a top 40 ranked Florida on deck, the Bulldogs need this victory to continue the winning pace. Keep in mind the only losses the last 10 games have been in double overtime games. Clear class difference here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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01-12-21 | Alabama v. Kentucky -3 | 85-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
638 Alabama at Kentucky Bama has been a hot team as of late in the betting markets, after winning five straight and beating Mississippi and Tennessee. But you are paying a price now with this high scoring fan favorite. Keep in mind the Tide has only played two true road games on the season. Kentucky, like always it seems is an extremely young team. The Wildcats started the slate with a 1-6 record but have run off three straight wins in conference action. Keion Brooks rejoined the lineup last time out against Florida, and he should get extended minutes here. Virtually all the key college basketball websites will have Alabama as the favorite here. But they don’t include Brooks or the way Kentucky has played as of late. In fact, Kentucky has been taking wise guy money after the opener. We agree with that notion as the Cats are back baby! PLAY KENTUCKY |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 48 m | Show | |
152 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Simply put the Steelers own the Browns. Big Ben has owned Cleveland in his career. Even Sunday in a game the Steelers played backups, the Browns really struggled to get the outright victory. This line will rise during the week, so let’s get this play in right now. |
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01-09-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -7 | 80-83 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
692 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-5 on the season after battling the Rams tooth and nail in a 74-71 loss on Thursday. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 290th in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.3% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 47.9 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 5-0 in this building. The Rams struggled on the boards in the first meeting with a weak 10.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to clamp down defensively here. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-09-21 | Alabama -5 v. Auburn | 94-90 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
607 Alabama at Auburn Tide is riding high right now holding five straight opponents to under a full point per possession. This is a club ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn has lost its first three conference games, having a very tough time holding on to the ball. Ranking 306th on the season in turnover percentage. Not a good matchup for an Alabama team looking to run. The poor 62.1% free throw percentage is a concern in the final moments of both halves. Lay it with the rolling Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-09-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers -4 | 79-68 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
616 Ohio State at Rutgers State beat Rutgers 80-68 earlier by dominating from 2 point range, hitting 23 of 39 shots. But that hasn’t been the norm for the Buckeyes who are middle of the pack in that stat on the season. Rutgers has dropped 3 of 4 including back to back losses against Iowa and Michigan State. Shooting was a problem in both those contests, especially the embarrassment vs the Spartans. In that game the Scarlet Knights had a points per possession number of 0.66 which is by far the worst shooting game of the season. We will look for a strong rebound today from the host, as it gains revenge on the Buckeyes. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
550 Oklahoma City at New York The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate. Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-08-21 | Lipscomb v. Bellarmine +1 | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
307056 Lipscomb at Bellarmine The Bisons have yet to win a road game all season. This was a 16 win team a year ago, after three straight 20 win campaigns. The step back has been sizable. Lipscomb hasn’t left Nashville in over a month, with seven straight home games. We’ve been impressed by Ballarmine in its first year of division one basketball. Their only loss at home this season has been to Chattanooga who is currently 10-2 on the season. The host has terrible defensive numbers but do rank 42nd in offensive field goal percentage. They also lead the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. While that obviously will regress, Lipscomb doesn’t have the defense to take advantage. PLAY BELLARMINE |
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01-07-21 | Illinois v. Northwestern +6.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
758 Illinois at Northwestern The Illini have been excellent so far this season with an 8-3 record. But they are just 2-2 straight up on the road with victories over a down Duke team and Penn State. Illinois doesn’t put any pressure on the oppositions ball handlers, ranking 319th in opponent turnover percentage. That’s a big deal when you are playing on the road. Northwestern is off back to back road losses to two of the top three teams in the league, Iowa and Michigan. In those games the opposition shot lights out from downtown, 23 of 53. Keep in mind the Wildcats rank 96th in the country in defending the three. Now back at home we look for this team to take this game to the wire. They have permitted 39 of 149, just 26% from 3 point range at home. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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01-07-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -9 | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
740 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-07-21 | Oregon v. Colorado -3 | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
766 Oregon at Colorado This is the best team the Ducks have played all year, and it’s just the second true road game of the season. The first was an unimpressive 74-71 win at Washington. Colorado is back home after a tough three games on the road at Arizona, USC and UCLA. All three Buffalo losses this season have come on the road. With this being the only game in an 11 day stretch, Colorado should be primed to even up its conference record at 2-2. This team ranks 4th in the nation in free throw shooting, which is a big consideration in a low lined game. Bounce back for the Buffs. PLAY COLORADO |
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Louisville | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
673 Virginia Tech at Louisville Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-05-21 | Rutgers +2.5 v. Michigan State | 45-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
633 Rutgers at Michigan State Early money has come in on the due system of playing Michigan State in a must win game. But we simply can’t see it. The Spartans have underperformed all season, and a 7 point victory over Nebraska isn’t going to change our mind. This team held all but one non-conference opponent to less than 1.00 points per possession. But once they started playing teams that know them the Spartans have struggled defensively. The Spartans don’t force turnovers ranking 304th in the country, and rarely get to the free throw line 271st, to take advantage of a 33rd ranked free throw percentage. Rutgers only losses were a 12 point defeat at Ohio State, and a 2 point loss at home to powerhouse Iowa last time out. Bart Torvik’s website shows the Scarlet Knights should have won both those games according to his game scores. Rutgers is a proven commodity while Michigan State looks a major step down from previous editions. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets +4.5 | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
502 Utah at Brooklyn Nets will be without Kevin Durant tonight and the line has moved 7 1/2 points because of it. That’s too much of a move in our opinion as Durant is just starting to get his feel with these new teammates. Purely a value play on this one as we get the Nets at home as a sizable underdog. Can’t pass this one up. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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01-04-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Magic | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
575 Cleveland at Orlando The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-04-21 | Southern Illinois +10.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
867 Southern Illinois at Drake Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis. Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible. Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-02-21 | Stanford v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. |
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01-02-21 | St Bonaventure +5 v. Richmond | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
715 St Bonaventure at Richmond Like the Bonnies here who we feel are underrated because of a small sample size. Off a loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday, we look for this game to go down to the wire. The overall numbers show this team to be a bad shooting team from distance. But the 1 of 14 opener against Akron should be taken with a grain of salt. This team was coming out of covid and was playing a veteran team. Since that time the Bonnies have hit 12 of 31 from deep. This is a club that creates turnovers ranking 38th in the country. It’s also a team that ranks 16th defensively in 3 point percentage. Richmond really struggled against West Virginia earlier, a team that puts pressure on the guards. We look for more of the same in this contest. PLAY ST BONNAVENTURE |
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01-02-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -1.5 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
680 West Virginia at Oklahoma Really tough matchup for the Mountaineers after having its best offensive rebounder opt out. This is a team that has struggled offensively all year, especially with outside shooting. Oklahoma excels in that regard defensively which puts them in a great position to win this game. The well coached Sooners will take advantage of the weaknesses of the visitor here and gain a comfortable win. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +1.5 | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
874 Old Dominion at Florida International Tough matchup here for the Monarchs who have been terrible defending from distance. In fact, Old Dominion is getting overwhelmed from 3 point range. The team ranks 279th in offensive 3 point shooting percentage, and 309th defending the three. FIU ranks 13th nationally from 3 point range. This is a team that depends on long distance shooting, attempting 26 or more in every game. Four times this season the Panthers have hoisted 40 or more from distance. Let’s back the host in this first of a back to back situation. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-31-20 | Michigan -1 v. Maryland | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
737 Michigan at Maryland The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -3 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
560 New York at Cleveland Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-29-20 | Wofford v. Mercer -2.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
616 Wofford at Mercer Two teams we really like facing off tonight in Macon Georgia. This is stylistically a good matchup for the host. Wofford is a team that relies heavily on the 3 pointer, hoisting 30 or more in all but one game this season. It’s also a terrible free throw shooting team ranking 331st at 51.5%. Mercer on the other hand is at its best defending from downtown. They rank 54th in the nation in 3 point shooting defense, allowing just 28.7%. After back to back road games we like the Bears to shut down this Wofford offense. PLAY MERCER |
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12-28-20 | Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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12-27-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
530 Philadelphia at Cleveland Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-25-20 | Mavs v. Lakers -6 | 115-138 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
584 Dallas at LA Lakers We went against Dallas in the opener on Wednesday, and see no reason to change anything here. Without Porzingas to take some offensive pressure off Doncic, the Mavericks simply are not as good as they were a year ago. The Lakers failed to win or cover in the opener, but we could see that coming. Teams simply do not play well on ring night, and as expected the Lakers got off to a terrible start. You have to be ready to play four quarters and LA only played three. That won’t be the case here as we get the better team, at home, off a loss. Give us the champs. PLAY LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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12-23-20 | Mavs v. Suns -1 | 102-106 | Win | 103 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
576 Dallas at Phoenix Two teams with a lot of upside meet tonight in Arizona. Phoenix was undefeated in the bubble last season and has high expectations. It signed one of the most competitive players in the NBA to run the show in Chris Paul. His addition is exactly what this young talented team has needed. Dallas star Luka Doncic has admitted that he’s a bit out of shape in this early return to the NBA. Which could be a major problem for many teams after the shortened preseason. Porzingis being out certainly hurts the Mavs. Phoenix took 3 of 4 from Dallas last year, and the Suns are now a better squad. PLAY PHOENIX |
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12-23-20 | Hornets -2 v. Cavs | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
551 Charlotte at Cleveland The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-22-20 | North Carolina -1 v. NC State | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
673 North Carolina at NC State The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-21-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +1 v. Missouri State | 77-85 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
781 Arkansas Little Rock at Missouri State The Trojans have gotten off to a nice 4-2 start. The offense has been impressive ranking 67th in effective field goal percentage, 46th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 30th in free throw rate. Missouri State is stepping up in class after beating William Jewell and Northwestern State. The Bears have terrific stats, but may have played the easiest schedule in the country. One area in which this team has struggled is free throw shooting. Ranking 319th in the nation at 57.1%. That number tells us more about the weak opposition, than the success the Bears have had. Give us the Trojans who have been better tested. PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Radford v. Vanderbilt -11.5 | 50-59 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
307230 Radford at Vanderbilt Not a huge fan of this Highlanders team who has questionable guard play. Redford lost all five starters from a year ago, and ranks 310th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 245th defensively. This is a poor three point shooting team, which is not a good sign when the opponent has the better talented squad. Vandy is coming off a home loss to Richmond in which its defense failed them. This is a club that dominates the boards with a 10th place offensive rebounding ranking, along with a 9th place rating in keeping the opponents off the offensive boards. With a team that ranks 2nd in college basketball from the free throw line, we can feel secure laying the number here. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-19-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Kentucky | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
631 North Carolina at Kentucky Much prefer the Tar Heels here who have shown a lot more fight than the very young Wildcats. North Carolina’s only losses this year were to Texas and Iowa, two of the best squads in the country. In those games they lost the 3 point battle 26 to 7. Allowing the opposition to shoot 26 of 62 from long range. While the Tar Heels don’t shoot a lot from distance themselves, they need to limit the long ball from the opposition. The Tar Heels pound the boards hard ranking 3rd offensively and 60th defensively in rebounds. Kentucky has lost four straight games with every contest producing offensive points per possession numbers of under 96. Below the national average in each game. Kentucky ranks 296th in 3 point shooting, which is how you beat the Tar Heels. Look for the North Carolina big men to be the difference. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |