Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-19 | Tennessee State +9 v. Indiana State | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
647 Tennessee State at Indiana State The Tigers just won its first road game of the season which should provide positive momentum here. Indiana State on the other hand is in the midst of a five game winning streak, including an overtime winner on Saturday against Wright State on the road. We see a letdown here for the Sycamores who enters this contest fat and happy. PLAY TENNESSEE STATE |
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12-17-19 | Grambling State +24 v. Marquette | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
425 Grambling State at Marquette Marquette is coming off a solid win over Kansas State, and now plays three lesser teams during the holidays. With Christmas afoot the home court values are lessened as the student body goes home over the holidays to be with family. The general fan ship is also less inclined to take in a sporting event with holiday shopping on the menu. Therefore we will gladly take the points with a Grambling State team excited to play a quality opponent. PLAY GRAMBLING STATE |
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12-17-19 | Mississippi Valley State +29.5 v. Wright State | 50-92 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
409 Mississippi Valley State at Wright State No doubt that Mississippi Valley State is a bad basketball team. Its only win this year came against a team called North American. But luckily we don’t have to bet money lines to be successful. Not with a line of this magnitude. Wright State has this contest before taking on rivals Toledo , Green Bay and Milwaukee. Coming off a 23 point win over Southern, we can’t see this club looking to run up a score. Only once has this club won by more than 23 points all season, and that was against a non-division one program in Urbana. PLAY MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE |
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12-16-19 | Kent State v. Cal-Irvine +2.5 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
838 Kent State & Cal Irvine at El Paso The Golden Flashes have been dominant against lesser competition, but we feel the wrong team is favored here. We really like the way Irvine defends the glass, which could be the deciding factor here. This team permits just 43.8% effective field goals which is key on this neutral court. PLAY CAL IRVINE |
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12-16-19 | Charleston Southern v. James Madison -6.5 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
386 Charleston Southern at James Madison Both teams really like to run but we question the depth of this CSU squad. The team already ranks 351st in FG% and is poor for the perimeter. James Madison has the 13th fastest pace in the country and ranks 107 spots higher in our rankings. Cheap number here for the host. PLAY JAMES MADISON |
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12-15-19 | Vikings -1 v. Chargers | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
331 Minnesota at LA Chargers The Vikings have won more games on the road than the Chargers have at home this year. Many feel Minnesota will be a no show today because of the importance of the game next week against Green Bay. But we’ve yet to see the Vikings have a no show game under this coaching staff. The fans will be 75% Minnesota fans. The Chargers have already lost to Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Kansas City on this field. The only quality home win was against Green Bay. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers -4 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
310 Chicago at Green Bay The Bears are getting a great deal of credit for winning three straight games. But those contests were against the struggling Giants, Lions and Cowboys. The Green Bay defense held the Bears to 3 points in the first meeting, and have held all but two opponents under 26 points this season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
314 Houston at Tennessee Looking at average scores this season Houston is even while the Titans are +4. When looking at pure game scores the Titans are a half point better, and that’s with Marriota behind center for half the games. The Tennessee defense has permitted over 23 points just twice all season. All the hype has been unfounded on the Texans here. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-14-19 | Nets +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
551 Brooklyn at Toronto The Nets are playing terrific ball right now, even better than the 8-3 record as of late. This is a team that has held the lead in the majority of 10 of those 11 games. The Nets are also well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Raptors are off that big showdown with the Clippers and Leonard. It’s also rested having the last two days off. But Toronto has dropped 4 of 5 as of late as the team is now starting to play towards its talent level. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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12-13-19 | Clippers v. Wolves +6 | 124-117 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
542 LA Clippers at Minnesota The Clippers are playing its fifth of six straight on the road. The team has won three straight and 5 of 6 overall. But LA is coming off an important game for Kawai Leonard as the team pounded Toronto on Wednesday. Not sure the team will have that same type of emotion here against the Timberwolves. Minnesota enters this contest on a six game losing streak. But the last five of those losses came against Utah, Phoenix, the Lakers, Oklahoma City and Dallas, so it’s not like this is a major step up for the host. Minnesota has the next four days off after this contest, so you know the host will leave it all out on the court tonight. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-13-19 | Lakers v. Heat +6 | 113-110 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
540 LA Lakers at Miami The Lakers just started a five game road trip Wednesday in Orlando. The team has won five straight and 15 of 16 overall. So you are paying a peak price by backing the Lakers right now. The Heat have been a nice surprise this season and have won 6 of 7 as of late themselves. This is also the first of a back to back situation for Miami with a trip to red hot Dallas tomorrow. After having to go to overtime to beat the pesky Hawks on Tuesday, we expect this to be a statement game for the host. Miami was held to a season low in scoring the other time these two met in Los Angeles. It’s payback time for the Heat here. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-13-19 | Rockets v. Magic +6.5 | 130-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
532 Houston at Orlando It may look like the Rockets are playing pretty well right now winning 5 of 7, but they haven’t been overly impressive doing so. They only outscored the Suns, Kings and Cavaliers by a combined point in the past three games. The Magic are taking a step down in class after battling the Lakers and Bucks the past two games. Orlando is also just about to leave on a four game western road trip after this contest. Therefore the extra motivation for a victory is there for the Magic. This line is simply too high to not take a quality Magic team at home. PLAY ORLANDO |
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12-11-19 | Celtics v. Pacers +1.5 | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
502 Boston at Indiana First meeting of the year between these two Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls. This is the first of a back to back for Boston who hosts Philadelphia tomorrow. That’s a more important game for Boston who dropped the season opener in Philadelphia 107-93. Pacers are off a home loss to the Clippers, with a day off tomorrow. The following two games are against the Hawks and Hornets. So while Boston may not be fully invested here, you know the Pacers will be giving it all. Our number has Indiana favored here, so we will gladly take the host as an underdog. PLAY INDIANA |
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12-09-19 | Pistons v. Pelicans -1 | 105-103 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
562 Detroit at New Orleans Well rested Pistons are playing its only game in a five day span. Off a satisfying home win over the Indiana Pacers. Must win game for the Pelicans who have dropped eight straight, with road games at Milwaukee and Philadelphia on deck. This is simply the game New Orleans has to have and the price is very reasonable. All out effort from the host tonight. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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12-08-19 | Kings v. Mavs -7.5 | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
550 Sacramento at Dallas The Kings have been outplayed in six straight games, coming away with a 1-5 record. The victory was in overtime against Denver in a game the Nuggets had an average lead of 7.6 points. This is a first game of a back to back with a trip to Houston tomorrow. Dallas is the hottest team in the league having won 10 of 11. Our numbers show that record to be exactly right as the only loss was deserved in a 15 point home defeat to the Clippers. Dallas is playing the second game of a back to back tonight. But the team rested key players in that 46 point victory. This line is extremely cheap based on how these teams are playing. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-08-19 | Steelers v. Cardinals +1 | 23-17 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
154 Pittsburgh at Arizona With the win over Cleveland last week the Steelers have set themselves up as a probable wild card. Having just played three straight divisional games, with three AFC contests to end the season, this is by far the least important game remaining for Pittsburgh. The Steelers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road. In fact, the win over the Rams at home 17-12 is the only victory over a team with a current winning mark. Arizona is off a blowout loss to the Rams, and have dropped five straight heading into this contest. But the Cards have back to back possible wins with the Browns playing here next week. The Steelers have been getting quite lucky this year with a +11 turnover margin, as well as a 5-3 record in one score games. This is the week Pittsburgh falters. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
110 Baylor & Oklahoma Despite the close 34-31 final score Oklahoma outgained Baylor by 218 yards in the previous meeting. Baylor dominated the first half while the Sooners crushed in the second half. The 525 total yards were a season high against this Baylor stop unit. Oklahoma has permitted just 335, 204 and 307 yards the past three weeks, as the defense is getting better as the season goes along. One thing to point out is Baylor has a +17 combined turnover margin edge in this matchup. The Bears have been living off turnovers all season, while Oklahoma is struggling taking care of the football. Unless Baylor wins this turnover battle by more than one, we see it very unlikely Baylor can keep this one close enough to stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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12-06-19 | Warriors v. Bulls -4.5 | 100-98 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
520 Golden State at Chicago The Warriors have the worst record in the league and by far the worst numbers when looking at average leads. Golden State is down 249.7 in 23 games, that’s an average deficit on the season on 10.9 points. That’s about twice as bad as any other team in the league. A lot of it is because of the lack of depth on this team. A squad that simply can’t compete in most games. The Bulls are 8-14 on the year but have only been at a scoring disadvantage of 3.1 on the season. So we have a team six games under .500 that is playing as a .500 ball club. This line is extremely cheap for the host. PLAY CHICAGO |
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12-06-19 | Nets -2.5 v. Hornets | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
513 Brooklyn at Charlotte The Nets are a money making team that is going under the national radar. Three straight spread covers heading into this contest, with a +27.0 total average lead on the season. So we have an 11-10 team record that’s playing better than its numbers. The Hornets are 9-14 on the season but trail in minutes leading on the season by an average of 100.4. That’s fifth worse in the league, above only the Knicks, Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors. Cheap number for the clearly better team. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -1 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
504 Houston at Toronto Very happy to lay this small number at home with the Raptors. Houston has already lost on the road to Brooklyn, Miami, Denver and the Clippers. The only quality road win was at Minnesota. Coming off an overtime loss at San Antonio, this team hasn’t proven itself away from home this season. Toronto is 8-2 ATS at home, off an overtime home loss to Miami last time out. Prior to that defeat the Raptors had won seven straight games. This is a cheap number to lay for Toronto. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-04-19 | Warriors v. Hornets -2.5 | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
558 Golden State at Charlotte Warriors playing its third game in four nights, off an embarrassing 25 point loss at Atlanta. But that’s what Golden State has done this year, when losing its been blowout city. In 18 losses the Warriors have lost by double digits 10 times. Charlotte has been off two of the last three days, after losing at home to Phoenix by 5 last time out. The Warriors are 4-12 SU vs non top ten opposition, Charlotte is 8-7. We get the better team playing at home and laying only the home court value. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | 105-96 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
550 LA Lakers at Denver The Lakers have been great against the also rans this year, but are just 2-3 straight up when facing a top 10 opponent. LA is playing its second game in three days with a trip to Utah tomorrow. Denver is 4-1 straight up vs top 10 opposition, and 8-1 overall against the upper half of the league. The Nuggets are well rested after having the previous two nights off. PLAY DENVER |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
466 NY Jets at Cincinnati From a game grade standpoint the Bengals should be very slight favorites here. The Jets are feeling fat and happy with a three game winning streak and a blowout of the Oakland Raiders. But with winless Cincinnati and the Dolphins on deck, excuse us if we don’t trust New York here. Cincinnati has been competitive the past two weeks with losses by 6 and 7 points. With the remaining schedule the best chance for a win after today will be at Miami in week 16. Cincinnati is 0-6 on the season in games decided by one possession. These teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
367 Ohio State at Michigan Surprised by the money coming in on the host. Just a week ago the look ahead number in this contest was 13 1/2. Ohio State beat Penn State by 11 points and 190 yards despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Now the line is about five points shorter. Neither team will have much success running the football, as both allow less than 3 yards per carry. Which brings us to the passing game where the Buckeyes have a huge edge. Fields has a 33 to 1 td to int ratio and a 190.3 passer rating. Patterson is 21 to 5 with a 149.6 passer rating. From an average game score rating Ohio State is 123.8 and Michigan is 106.4. Only once all season have the Wolverines reached the average Buckeye game score, and that was in the 45-14 victory over Notre Dame. In order to be competitive here the Wolverines would likely have to play its best game of the season, against a program that has dominated them. We don’t see that happening as we expect Ohio State to win going away. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-29-19 | Wizards +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
579 Washington at LA Lakers The high scoring Wizards look to add to its success on the road trip after outscoring the Suns on Wednesday. While the record isn’t overly impressive, the Wizards have won 3 of 5 overall heading into this contest. The Lakers are coming in off an emotional come from behind win in New Orleans. It was a positive homecoming for Anthony Davis. Now the team has a fun get out and run game with the Wizards before hosting the red hot Mavericks on Sunday. This is a major sandwich spot for the host with Dallas, Denver and Utah up next. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
321 Texas Tech at Texas Final game of the season for the Red Raiders who won’t be going bowling. Despite losing five of its six games down the stretch, Texas Tech has scored the same amount of points as it allowed. The losses came by margins of 3, 2, 3, 10 and 3 points. The Red Raiders on the season are 0-4 in one score games. This is a one-sided rivalry and Texas Tech will treat this like its bowl game. The Longhorns have already qualified for a bowl with six wins. But this has to be looked at as a disappointing season in Austin. A win over Texas Tech won’t change that. Hard to see this team getting up for this contest after being non-competitive last week against Baylor. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-27-19 | Nets +8 v. Celtics | 110-121 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
529 Brooklyn at Boston The first of a home and home with these two squads. We have been very impressed with the Nets who have played all season with differing lineups because of injuries. Brooklyn has been very good away from home. In the last eight games overall the Nets have held the lead for the majority of the game seven times. That includes five straight games on the road. Boston has the better record, but we don’t rate the Celtics much higher in our ratings. At least not enough to put them in this price range. We expect this one to go down to the wire with the spread never being a consideration. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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11-25-19 | 76ers -1.5 v. Raptors | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
507 Philadelphia at Toronto The Sixers are playing its third game in five days, but is off a 27 point blowout of the Heat on Saturday. So key players didn’t have to put in big minutes. Philadelphia struggled somewhat out of the gate but is playing very good ball at the moment. Entering here on a for game winning streak with the last loss coming in overtime at Oklahoma City. Toronto has a gaudy record, but a closer look shows it played much better early in the year. In spike of a 5-2 record the last seven games, Toronto has held the lead for the majority of those games just twice. The Sixers are the better team who knows how to close out games. That’s something the Raptors haven’t faced much of this season. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
272 Green Bay at San Francisco This number is really cheap based on the season to date outputs of both these squads. Looking at average game scores the Packers are 84.4 while the 49ers are 88.4. That would make San Francisco a significant favorite on a neutral. Add in home field advantage and we clearly see this line should be much closer to a 6. This is the third road game in four contests for the Packers, but Green Bay was off a bye week. San Francisco on the other hand will be at home for the third straight week. The next two games for the Niners are really tough with road games at Baltimore and New Orleans. While this is not a must win game for the host, it’s about as important as a game could be considering the remainder of the San Francisco schedule. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-23-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
556 San Antonio at New York The Spurs have dropped eight straight games and have the Lakers on deck. Naturally this is the game San Antonio needs to have. But this isn’t your typical Spurs squad we are so used to seeing under Pops. The defense simply isn’t there right now, as every opponent the Spurs have played this season has reached triple figures. The Knicks have held the lead the majority of the game only five times this season, but it’s happened in each of the last four games. This is a team that is getting better and better each time out, but is staying under the national radar. Wrong team favored based on the way these teams are playing right now. PLAY NEW YORK |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
122 Michigan at Indiana The Wolverines have finally put it all together and are playing like many thought this team would before the season. Winning 6 of 7 including a blow out victory over Notre Dame. But this is a terrible sandwich spot after knocking off Michigan State and having Ohio State on deck. Michigan has owned Indiana in football for decades, as this sets up as a huge letdown situation. Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan, but the last four years have been very competitive. The Hoosiers have cashed each of those games by a combined 38 1/2 points. This is the best Indiana football team in a really long time. It’s the first team that is going to finish with a winning record since 2007. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home with the only losses on the road at Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-23-19 | Ball State -3 v. Kent State | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 43 m | Show | |
117 Ball State at Kent State The Cardinals need to win out to reach a 6-6 record. This team hasn’t had a non-losing season since 2013. It hosts Miami Ohio next week to end the season, so it is a realistic goal for these seniors. Despite dropping three straight games our numbers show Ball State to be the clear favorite here. Kent is off an upset victory over Buffalo in a game it didn’t deserve. The Golden Flashes lost the yardage battle by 95 and came up short in first downs by 4. Buffalo ran for 1.8 ypc better than Kent State. Kent has lost the yardage battle in four straight games, Ball State on the other hand has out yarded its opponent in 3 of its past 5 games. The hungry team gets the spread cover here, and that’s the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
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11-22-19 | Spurs +7.5 v. 76ers | 104-115 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
533 San Antonio at Philadelphia The Spurs are riding a seven game losing streak. Yet the early hit on the lines screen was backing San Antonio. And we agree with that line move. San Antonio is in a back to back road game situation, but they only have the Knicks on deck. Philadelphia comes into this contest off back to back wins over the Cavaliers and Knicks, two Eastern Conference opponents. And on deck for the Sixers are Miami and Toronto, two Eastern Conference contenders. We expect to get a complete effort from the visitor, while this i9s the least important game in a while for the host. PLAY SAN ANTONIO |
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11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -4 | 124-121 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
526 New Orleans at Phoenix The Pelicans have the better scheduling situation here. Off yesterday with this being the first game of a three in four situation. New Orleans is 1-5 straight up on the season and this line shows these teams to be relatively even. We tend to disagree. Phoenix is playing its third in four days, but did have yesterday off. The Suns have dropped back to back games against Boston and Sacramento, two of the hottest teams in the league. With tomorrow off before a two game road trip, this is the game the Suns need. PLAY PHOENIX |
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11-20-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls | 89-109 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
515 Detroit at Chicago The Pistons are well rested having four full days off before this meeting in Chicago. Riding a four game losing streak into this contest assures us of a prime effort from the visitor. After losing to Milwaukee at home Monday, the Bulls will be playing three games in four days starting tonight. Money has been slowly showing on the Pistons and we feel the wrong team is favored. Let’s take the point with Detroit in a game we know our squad will give the better effort. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-19-19 | Warriors v. Grizzlies -6 | 114-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
578 Golden State at Memphis The Warriors grade out in our numbers as by far the worst team in the league. And that included the games in which the remaining at the time star players contributed. Golden State has won one road game all season, and that was the third game of the year at New Orleans. This is the first game of a back to back for the visitor, so we could see Steve Kerr resting starters if the win is out of reach. Memphis has won 3 of its last 4 games with the only loss coming against Denver last time out. While this is the first time the Grizzlies have been favored this season, the talent level shows the line to be short. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-17-19 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +7 | 131-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
550 Denver at Memphis The Nuggets continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the league. While the record says 8-3 this team should be 6-5 based on the advanced stats we use. This is the only road game in a seven game span for the Nuggets. Denver needed a big comeback last time out to beat Brooklyn 101-93. Before that it lost by 4 at home to Atlanta and were forced to overtime at Minnesota. Memphis is playing solid ball right now riding a three game winning streak into this contest. Our numbers show the Grizzlies should be a 6-6 team, and have plenty of value here as a sizable home underdog. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
470 New England at Philadelphia Many will want to back the Patriots off a loss followed by a bye week. Belichick has been solid off losses in his career, but this isn’t the same New England team that we have seen in the past. Besides the last three seasons the Pats are 0-3 ATS off the bye week, including a 1-2 SU record. The Pats have a solid lead in the division and play the next two games against non-conference foes. Those are the lowest priority games on the schedule. The Pats are permitting 4.7 ypc on the season, against a schedule that is extremely weak. Only Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Baltimore have winning records. New England is +17 turnovers on the year, the major reason why this team has a gaudy record. Philadelphia is getting healthier, and with the divisional race with the Cowboys, this game is much more important for the host. The Eagles should be able to run all over this Pats defense. And coming off a bye we know Philadelphia has had this game circled. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-17-19 | Celtics v. Kings +3 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
548 Boston at Sacramento As great as Boston has played this season they have been a bit lucky on the coin flip games. Our numbers show the Celtics should be 7-4 as it was outplayed in three games but got the victory. This is the 2nd game of a five game road trip. The Kings don’t have the gaudy record of the Celtics, but this team has played much better ball after that 0-5 start to the season. Our numbers show Sacramento should have been 5-1 since that time, but only won four games. The Kings are well rested playing only twice in the past eight days. This home dog has plenty of value. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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11-16-19 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -112 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
378 Texas at Iowa State Triple revenge game for the Cyclones who took Oklahoma to the wire last week in a confidence building loss. With only Kansas on deck we look for this Iowa State team to win going away. This club has produced game scores of 100 or higher in 7 of its last 8 games. Much more impressive than its 5-4 record on the season. After three of four weeks on the road it will be nice to get back home here. As opposed to Iowa State, Texas has produced a game score of 100+ just once the past six games. That was last week hosting Kansas State. With a 6-3 record many would assume this line to be too high, but we firmly disagree. Texas has not been impressive this season as we expected, but have been very fortunate to fall on the right side of coin flip games. The Longhorns are 3-0 in games decided by six points or less. Iowa State on the other hand is 1-3 in games of six points or less. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-16-19 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +6 | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show | |
322 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Two teams playing much better ball as of late. The Hokies have won 4 of 5 with the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But over the past six contests the team has lost the combined yardage battle by 253, and the first down battle by 21. Turnovers have been a major key to winning with a +2 margin. Tech has also just one road victory on the season, and in that win the Hokies were outgained by 226 yards. Georgia Tech has played a 30 spot tougher schedule. While the team is just 2-7 on the season, it’s been very competitive in the first year of a new coach and system. With the Yellow Jackets playing its last three games at home, we look for Georgia Tech to make solid strides to end the season. An outright victory here is not out of the question. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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11-16-19 | Indiana v. Penn State -14.5 | 27-34 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 33 m | Show | |
326 Indiana at Penn State The line on this game looks completely reasonable if you just look at the year to date stats. But a closer look at the opposition shows the Nittany Lions to have played a whopping 73 spot tougher schedule. The Hoosiers played one good team on the season, a 51-10 loss to Ohio State. Penn State has faced the likes of Pittsburgh, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. While this is a sandwich game for the host, off Minnesota and with Ohio State on deck. Indiana just became the final team from a power five conference to make the Top 25. And if you’ve followed teams getting into the Top 25 this year, you know they have faltered badly the following week. Penn State is the better coached and more talented squad, off a loss and playing at home. This line is cheap. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-15-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +8 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
524 Utah at Memphis The Jazz have struggled on the road thus far with a 1-4 ATS mark. Off four straight victories the team may enter here a bit satisfied with its recent performance. The Grizzlies host the Jazz for the first of a four game home stand. After wins at San Antonio and Charlotte this team should have solid momentum for this home battle. Our numbers show this line to be too high. We step in and take the host. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-14-19 | Nets +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
511 Brooklyn at Denver Nets are well rested having not played a back to back since November 1st and 2nd. This is the 4th of 5 on this road trip, but it should be well acclimated to the atmosphere after playing at Utah on Tuesday. While the Nuggets are 7-3 on the season, they have been quite fortunate. We have them at a deserved 5-5 as they have only had an average lead this season of 0.15 points per game. That despite being favored in all ten games this season. The Nuggets are the most overrated team in the league based on how it has played this season. We take advantage of that tonight with an inflated line. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
502 Miami at Cleveland We've been impressed by the start the Miami Heat have gotten off to. This team looks like a legit contender for a mid-tier playoff position. That said, this line is simply too high based on the way these two teams have been playing. Cleveland is 4-6 on the season which is enough of a surprise, but the team is actually better than that. On the year the Cavaliers have held a lead for more time than the opposition. That despite playing 6 of 10 games on the road, and being an underdog in all 10 games! This line is all based on reputation and preseason expectations. We expect the Cavs to win this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-13-19 | Monmouth +17 v. Kansas State | 54-73 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
627 Monmouth at Kansas State King Rice’s crew is coming off an embarrassing defensive performance in a 94-74 loss at Hofstra. They allowed an adjusted defensive rating of 123.2. In its first two games the opposition is shooting 17 of 35 from long range, which is simply not sustainable. Kansas State is coming off an overtime victory at UNLV in which it was very fortunate to win. Our numbers show it should have lost the game by 3 points, not win by 4. K State forced a turnover rate of 35.8% in that contest, a far cry from the 12.3% TO rate in this opener vs North Dakota State. Our numbers show plenty of value on the underdog in this one. PLAY MONMOUTH |
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11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic -1 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
578 Philadelphia at Orlando Despite a 7-3 record the 76ers are not playing up to its talent level. Our numbers show the team has been very fortunate and should have a 5-5 record. This team is only 1.7 points per game better than the schedule of teams it has faced. Now in the second game of a back to back and third in four days, their best players will likely be sitting. As opposed to the visitor the Magic are playing better than its record. Orlando is 3-7 on the year but our numbers show this team is only 0.5 points worse than the schedule it has played. And that schedule has featured Toronto, Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas and Indiana. With two days off since the last time the Magic took the court, Orlando has a huge scheduling advantage tonight. PLAY ORLANDO |
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11-12-19 | North Texas +13.5 v. Arkansas | 43-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
783 North Texas at Arkansas This line has moved down but still shows solid value on the underdog. We’ve been impressed with the Mean Green defense around the basket, yielding just 35% shooting from 2 point range. It gave VCU all it could handle on Friday in a 59-56 road loss. Arkansas cruised to a 91-43 win over Rice, and look fat and happy after playing about as good as you possibly could in that blowout win. It’s also been a full week since opening night, so a bit of rust could play a factor. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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11-12-19 | Thunder +2.5 v. Pacers | 85-111 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
563 Oklahoma City at Indiana Thunder have been tested on the road having already played the Jazz, Rockets and Spurs. We were impressed by how well it played last time ouit in a 121-119 loss to the Bucks. Milwaukee has been golden off a loss and the Thunder were able to easily stay under that number. The Pacers have gotten better as the season has unfolded, but not sure we trust them laying points here. The Indiana schedule has been very weak, playing Detroit twice, Cleveland twice, Charlotte and Washington for example. The best teams it has played is probably Brooklyn and Orlando. While the Thunder aren't an elite team, it has enough talent to grab the road win here. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan v. Ohio -1.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
304 Western Michigan at Ohio U The Broncos have really struggled on the road this year. Dropping all four road games by a combined score of 168-101. All four of those road teams have been disappointments this year. Michigan State, Syracuse, Toledo and Eastern Michigan have all underperformed. Ohio University outgained Miami Ohio last Wednesday, but lost because of a -3 turnover differential. The Ohio running game has bested 5 yards per carry in each of its last four games, as the offense has really played well as of late. In what we expect to be a high scoring contest, we will side with the host with lowly Bowling Green and Akron remaining on the schedule. A win here and the Bobcats likely finish the season with a winning record for the fifth straight season. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-11-19 | Raptors v. Clippers -10.5 | Top | 88-98 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
560 Toronto at LA Clippers Short handed Raptors pulled off an impressive upset of the Lakers last night. But in doing so VanFleet played 38 minutes and Siakam 42. Now playing back to back against a Clippers team that has had the past three days off. LA doesn’t play again until Wednesday, so there will be no load limits for the Clippers star. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough as we expect the Raptors to fade in the second half. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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11-10-19 | UC-Santa Barbara +5.5 v. UCLA | 61-77 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
711 Cal Santa Barbara at UCLA Coming off a 22-10 season Joe Pasternack’s squad will be stepping up in class here after an 83-62 victory over Jackson State. But we like their chances as this is a team who goes eight deep, and shoots well from the perimeter. UCLA survived Long Beach 69-65 but we were not impressed. Other than the ability to get to the line Mick Cronin’s new team didn’t show much on the offensive end. With an effective field goal percentage of 44.3, while allowing a 54.8% EFG number. Cronin is a really good coach but these aren’t his players. It will take some time before we trust the Bruins laying points. PLAY CAL SANTA BARBARA |
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11-10-19 | Hornets v. 76ers -13.5 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
538 Charlotte at Philadelphia The Hornets have been very fortunate with a 4-5 record. Our numbers show it deserves a 2-7 mark. The only two games it should have won were against the Bulls and Kings, two teams who started the year poorly. This is the only road game in a five game stretch for the Hornets. The 76ers return home from a bad 1-3 road trip, with three straight losses entering this contest. Philadelphia doesn’t play again until Tuesday against the lowly Cavaliers. We expect the host to take out some frustrations here on the unrested Hornets. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-10-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
253 Buffalo at Cleveland The Buffalo Bills have played one game away from home in the past seven weeks, a road game at Tennessee. The Bills have lowly Miami on deck, a team coming off its first and possibly only win of the season. Most teams rise up after a week of off field controversy, but not the Browns. This team is so dysfunctional it has raised the stakes to a whole new level. We want no part of this club right now, and are surprised the team has been made the favorite here. To make matters worse the Browns have a short week ahead before clashing with hated rival Pittsburgh on Thursday. Wrong team favored in this one. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-09-19 | San Jose State +8 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
199 San Jose State at Hawaii The Spartan passing game has produced 400 or more yards in 3 of its last 5 games. Only the defense of San Diego State held the Spartans to less than 310 yards during this streak. Hawaii hasn’t faced many good passing attacks this season. And the Warriors have had a very hard time with turnovers, with a -12 margin on the year. San Diego State is at +12 on the season, and once again likely to win the turnover battle here. Give us a team likely to win turnovers, that is a live dog in the passing game, and we are catching more than a touchdown. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-09-19 | Warriors +12 v. Thunder | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
527 Golden State at Oklahoma City Nobody is going to want anything to do with these short handed Warriors after an overtime loss. But that gives us plenty of value here. Golden State played ten players yesterday, all early double digit minutes. And for the third time in four games the Warriors held the lead for a majority of the game. This is a team that is much better than the record shows, and we can take advantage of that with increased lines. Oklahoma City doesn’t run like they used to, which keep scoring down and gives underdogs a better chance to stay in the game. Coming off its worst defensive performance of the season, we expect the pace to be slower than normal. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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11-09-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Pepperdine -1.5 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
656 Cal Irvine at Pepperdine Irvine survived San Diego 76-73 but really were fortunate with the win. Irvine was 2 of 11 from deep, and that can’t happen here against the Wave. Pepperdine laid an egg last time out against California, losing by 16. The defense was horrid allowing the Bears to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 66.7%. Coming off a disappointing season we expect a big bounce back game here. Eight players played at least 33% of the minutes in the opener, that depth will be the difference tonight. PLAY PEPPERDINE |
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11-09-19 | Valparaiso v. St. Louis -9 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
607 Valparaiso at St Louis Valpo was very inefficient last time out against Toledo, but pounded the Rockets on the boards in a 79-77 victory. Matt Lottich’s crew didn’t force the issue, shooting mainly from the outside. That won’t cut it against this St Louis squad. This club pounded Florida Gulf Coast last time out 89-67, and we look for more of the same here. St Louis rarely turns the ball over and dominated the opposition on the offensive boards. What worked for Valpo last time out is a detriment here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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11-09-19 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +3 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
178 Georgia Southern at Troy The Eagles are coming in off a nationally televised upset victory at Appalachian State. A game in which it lost the yardage battle by 72 and had eight less first downs. Georgia Southern is fat and happy after winning its last four contests. This is the second straight road game for the Eagles. This is the only home game for the Trojans in a five game span. Unlike the Eagles, Troy has dropped 4 of its last 5 games, and is in danger of missing a bowl game for the first time in four seasons. The Troy seniors want to be this first team to make it bowling in all four years of its class. Because of the early line movement we are getting Troy as a home dog in what we projected to be a one point Trojan favorite. Too much value to not back the host here in what could be a season defining game. PLAY TROY |
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11-09-19 | Louisville +7 v. Miami-FL | 27-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
125 Louisville at Miami Love the job Scott Satterfield has done this year with the Cardinals. Louisville has won 5 of its last 7 games with the only losses coming against the two most talented teams in the league, Florida State and Clemson. The Cardinals average 4.9 yards per carry, so it has the ability to ice a game with a second half lead. The passing attack has been very efficient regardless of who may be behind center on a weekly basis. Miami has been a disappointment this year with a 5-4 record, and are off its biggest win of the season. A 27-10 rout of in state rival Florida State. Now fat and happy the Hurricanes are expected to win by margin. Keep in mind Miami has only exceeded 35 points once all season, with a high of 63 points against Bethune-Cookman. This offense isn’t built to lay this type of number. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-08-19 | Grizzlies v. Magic -6.5 | 86-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
506 Memphis at Orlando First game of a back to back for the Grizzlies who host the Mavericks tomorrow. This is only the third road game of the season for Memphis, who lost to Miami by 19 and the Lakers by 29 previously. Orlando has dropped four straight, while this is the opening game of a five game home stand. The Magic have had a difficult schedule but have beaten the two weaker teams it has faced this year, Cleveland by 9 and New York by 12. We look for the host to get right tonight. PLAY ORLANDO |
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11-07-19 | Celtics -7 v. Hornets | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
571 Boston at Charlotte Love the way the Celtics are moving the ball and playing unselfish on offense. The team is doing a great job defensively rotating, and are coming off its worst defensive performance of the season. Boston has won five straight games and you can tell this team is getting better each game. The surprising Hornets have won three straight, but a closer look at the game flows show this team has been quite lucky. Only twice this year have the Hornets held the lead for the majority of the game. It has just been fortunate that it did so at the 48 minute mark. Boston’s recent success is real while the Hornets have been a fluke. PLAY BOSTON |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
106 Miami at Ohio U The Redhawks broke a five game losing streak in this series with a two point home victory last year. Miami’s long suffering run game finally broke out last week against Kent State, but this squad still averages just 3.2 yards per carry on the season. The passing game is poor reaching 190 or more yards just twice all year. Ohio U suffered losses to Pitt, Marshall and Louisiana earlier in the season. But in retrospect those clubs have had really impressive years. Sitting at 4-4 is a disappointment for Bobcat fans, but the schedule turned out tougher than anticipated. Ohio has a diverse offense that averages 5.0 ypc and has the ability to throw the ball well. It’s only bad loss on the year was a 39-36 home defeat at the hands of Northern Illinois. We look for the Bobcats to dominate offensively as it gains revenge for a rare loss in this series. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-06-19 | Bulls +2 v. Hawks | 113-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
561 Chicago at Atlanta The Bulls have led for the majority of the time in 4 of its last 5 games, and yet won just once during that time frame. This is a much better team than the 2-6 record would lead you to believe. Only twice all season have the Bulls lost by double digits. The Hawks are 3-3 on the year but haven’t played nearly as well the past week. The win last night over San Antonio was an even game for most of the contest. Neither loss to Miami was overly competitive. In the second game of a back to back for both these squads, we will take the road dog off a loss. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-05-19 | Heat +5 v. Nuggets | 89-109 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
551 Miami at Denver Been very impressed early on with this Heat squad. 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS including wins over Milwaukee and Houston. Nuggets have great talent but haven’t played up to its ability as of yet. 4-2 SU and 2-3-1 ATS to start the year. Denver was very fortunate to get the win last time out in a 91-87 victory over Orlando. With a big matchup with Philadelphia on deck, we can see the Nuggets possibly looking past Miami here. Too many points regardless as Miami takes this to the wire. PLAY MIAMI |
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11-04-19 | 76ers v. Suns +2 | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
538 Philadelphia at Phoenix The Sixers are a perfect 5-0 on the season but have been very fortunate to win close games. The opposition held the lead the majority of the time in 3 of those 5 games. It happened again last time out in a 129-128 victory at Portland. We have been very impressed by the young Suns, who are finally in no tank mode. They have led the majority of the game in all but one contest, a one point loss to Utah. Phoenix beat the Clippers and lost by a single point in overtime at Denver. This team is the real deal, and we take advantage of what should be a rare occasion of being a home dog the remainder of the season. PLAY PHOENIX |
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11-03-19 | Mavs -5 v. Cavs | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
525 Dallas at Cleveland Mavericks were hard luck losers last time out hosting the Lakers. But we have liked what we have seen out of Dallas so far. With this being the only contest in a four day span, we see no letdown playing this young Cavs team. While the Cavs have been competitive with a 2-3 record, Cleveland has been fortunate in that regard. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-02-19 | Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
317 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Game score numbers show Pitt averaging 94.2 while Georgia Tech is at 77.8. Pitt has played a 12 spot tougher schedule than the Yellow Jackets. So by our numbers this line is extremely short. Yes, Georgia Tech has played better the past two games and are off an upset of Miami. And are off its second bye of the season, but it didn’t serve them well the first time in a 24-2 loss at Temple. Both teams played the Hurricanes in its last game. Pitt outgained them by 114 in a loss, while GT was outgained by 12 in a win. Yellow Jacket money is buying them this week at a peak price. That doesn’t work in the stock market and it doesn’t work in the betting markets. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-02-19 | UNLV +9 v. Colorado State | 17-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 44 m | Show | |
357 UNLV at Colorado State The Rebels have been a much better team since Kenyon Oblad took over behind center. His QB rating is 118.6 as opposed to Armani Rogers and his 94.4 rating. Under Rogers the team was a run only offense with just two touchdown passes, now the team is multi dimensional. The last three games the Rebels have combined to outgain the opposition by 38 yards, and had nine more first downs. Despite playing two of those three games on the road. The previous four games UNLV was outgained by 643 total yards and losing first downs by 13. Colorado State is off back to back wins for the first time this season, both on the road. The only home victory for the Rams was a win over FCS entrant Western Illinois. Despite victories the last two games Colorado State permitted 6.3 and 5.2 yards per carry to Fresno State and New Mexico. We look for a tightly contested higher scoring contest. PLAY UNLV |
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11-02-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
336 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan The Bulls have struggled on the road this year with the only victory coming at Akron 21-0, what could be the worst team in the FBS. The last two games Buffalo has a +7 turnover margin but only outgained the opposition by a combined 89 yards. So while the final scores looked impressive, a great deal of luck was included. Buffalo is now 6-18-1 as a conference road underdog the last decade plus. Eastern Michigan has only played at home three times this season. This is the only home game for the Eagles in a four week span. Keep in mind the last time on this field the Eagles beat Western Michigan, the clear best team in the conference 34-27, outgaining the Broncos by 188 total yards. Chris Creighton is 22-15-2 ATS off a loss in his six years in Ypsilanti. We look for a solid victory for the host on Saturday. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +27.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
308 Navy at Connecticut This is just the third road game for Navy this season. It lost to Memphis by 12 and beat Tulsa by 28 despite only having a +100 yardage advantage. This is by far the least important game for the Midshipmen remaining on the schedule. After this contest they finish the season at Notre Dame, hosting undefeated SMU, at Houston in revenge and vs military rival Army. The last two games the opposition has had success running the football on Navy, and UConn has discovered a running game lately. Connecticut has looked like a much better team as of late outgaining both Houston and UMass the past two weeks. While many will dismiss the victory over the Minutemen, this team needed a confidence building victory. And the 24-17 loss to Houston looks much better after the Cougars took SMU to the wire last week. The Huskies have yet to lose a home game this season by the margin the line makers have posted here. We feel that streak continues as we buy low on the Huskies in an obvious look ahead situation for Navy. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
569 Milwaukee at Orlando The Bucks are just 2-2 on the season but blew big leads in both losses. Milwaukee was automatic after a loss last year, and cashed its only game this season following a defeat. While Milwaukee does have a home revenge contest with Toronto on deck tomorrow, the loss of its best player to free agency lowers the stakes. Orlando is also 2-2 on the season but have only played well in one game this year, the opener against the Cavs, a projected 23 win team. While the 12 point win over the Knicks last time out looks fine, keep in mind the average lead in that game for Orlando was just 1.8 points. The Magic lost to both decent teams it played this season in Atlanta and Toronto, this is by far the toughest opponent Orlando has faced. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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10-30-19 | Knicks v. Magic -9 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
540 New York at Orlando Simply put the New York Knicks are terrible, and any time we can bet against them at a reasonable number we will. Coming off a undeserved home victory over Chicago seems like as good a time as any. While the score shows a 105-98 win, the average lead in the game was 8.9 points. By the Bulls! Chicago dominated that game and yet found a way to lose. On the season New York is 3-1 ATS despite very rarely holding a lead. Orlando is coming off losses to Atlanta and Toronto, two teams playing much better than expected. The Magic are well rested having only played three games this season and no back to backs. With Milwaukee and Denver on the horizon this is a must win game for the host. We expect a terrific effort from the Magic as they win this one handily. PLAY ORLANDO |
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10-29-19 | Hawks +8 v. Heat | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
533 Atlanta at Miami While the Hawks are playing in the second game of a back to back, Miami is playing its third game in four days. It’s also the first game with Jimmy Butler a key offseason signing. Since Butler didn’t play in the first three games we can look for rust to be a factor after coming back from the birth of a child. Atlanta was good to us yesterday and continues to be underrated in the betting marketplace. This young team is playing with great confidence now, showing yesterday it could play head up with the elite in the east. Despite that loss Atlanta led the majority of the game. No way the line should be this high with the way the Hawks are playing right now. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-28-19 | Nuggets v. Kings +6 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
530 Denver at Sacramento Everybody and their brother likes this Denver Nuggets team coming into the season. It’s an extremely talented team that many feel will represent the Western Conference in this years championship. But despite a 2-0 start to the season the Nuggets haven’t been overly impressive. Having to go to overtime against Phoenix at home last time out as an example. We see it all the time. A team is highly publicized in the off season and believes all the hype. Hey how bout those Cleveland Browns! Now sitting at 2-0 with an improved Dallas on deck tomorrow, what kind of effort will we see out of the Nuggets tonight. The Kings on the other hand are 0-3 on the young season, losing all three games by double digits. The last being a 113-81 road loss at Utah. Nobody wants these Kings tonight, which means the value is there on the host. This team is not nearly as bad as it has shown so far, and this is the only game in a three day stretch. With the Clippers twice, Boston and Milwaukee on deck, this is an all in game for the host. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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10-28-19 | 76ers v. Hawks +5 | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
516 Philadelphia at Atlanta Joel Embid is listed as questionable tonight, but this analysis expects him to play. While Embid has a sizable advantage down low over the Hawks, we like the way this young team has started the season. Atlanta has the youngest starting five in the league including two rookies who have gotten off to impressive starts. This is a matchup of the only two undefeated teams in the league and the home crowd will be pumped. Trey Young has been outstanding thus far and the line provides us value on the host. We look for a high scoring contest with Atlanta pulling off the shocker. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -2 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
262 Philadelphia at Buffalo The Eagles only wins have come against 1 win Washington, 1 win NY Jets and the Packers in a game it lost the yardage battle by 155. This team simply cannot protect the quarterback as Wentz just doesn’t have time to look downfield. That makes it easy on this Buffalo defense who can flood the box. Buffalo’s only loss on the season was to undefeated New England in a game it outgained the Pats by 151 yards. That looks really impressive now based on what the Pats have done this season. If Philadelphia can’t be competitive last week against Dallas, how can we expect this offense to move the ball on Buffalo. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
561 Toronto at Chicago Second game of a back to back for the Raptors who lost a coin flip game last night in Boston. We had the Celtics in that game and were lucky to get the win and cover. Chicago has been outplayed in both games and yet have a 1-1 record. Memphis dominated play last night, but the Bulls pulled out the 110-102 victory. The average lead in that contest was Memphis by 5.6 points, so the Grizzlies deserved better. Home opener for the Bulls but the Toronto roster is much more talented. We look for the Raptors to bounce back with a solid road victory. PLAY TORONTO |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
208 Notre Dame at Michigan Notre Dame at Michigan From a game score perspective the Irish are 4 points better than Michigan, but that includes the first three games of the season for the Wolverines. Since that time Michigan is 3 points better than the Irish as this team has stayed under the national radar. After starting the year poorly it looks as if most bettors have ignored the Michigan improvement. Brian Kelly is 8-4 ATS off a bye, so the Irish should be fully prepared here. But based on the Irish success we feel Notre Dame is getting too much credit in the betting markets. This is the only home game in a month span for the Wolverines, and its a rare night game. That in itself should ensure a crazy packed atmosphere for the host. Keep in mind Michigan is 28-4 SU under Harbaugh at home. With the line movement towards the visitor, we have great value on the Wolverines. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-26-19 | Nevada +13.5 v. Wyoming | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 19 m | Show | |
143 Nevada at Wyoming The Wolfpack have played the 61st ranked schedule in the country, while Wyoming has played the 114th. Nevada enters this game with a 4-3 record with losses to Oregon, Hawaii and Utah State. All three of those teams have something the Cowboys lack, a quarterback that could play at the next level. When facing a squad without that type of quarterback Nevada has outgained everyone but BIG10 entrant Purdue, a game the Wolf Pack beat 34-31. Wyoming has been outgained in all but one contest this season, a home game against UNLV. The Cowboys have been very fortunate in turnovers with a +7 margin. This team has no passing game to stretch the field, throwing for 124 yards or less in all but one game this season. In what looks to be a low scoring tight contest we will take the inflated number with Nevada. PLAY NEVADA |
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10-26-19 | Iowa v. Northwestern +10 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 26 m | Show | |
132 Iowa at Northwestern The Hawkeyes have lost to Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Failing to cover the number by a combined 42 1/2 points. The Iowa offense has only scored 41 combined points the past three weeks against Purdue, Penn State and Michigan. Iowa has a bye on deck then travels to Wisconsin, in its biggest remaining game of the season. In BIG10 play Iowa has only outgained one team all season by more than 62 yards. This isn’t a team that should be laying this type of number. Northwestern has played the toughest schedule in the nation per the Jeff Sagarin Ratings. The Wildcats have just one win on the season and are coming in off a 52-3 blowout loss to the best team in the nation, Ohio State. Northwestern has an extra day to prepare, and is a fresher team having had a bye before last week. This defense is legit despite the evidence of last week. It held Stanford to 17 on the road, UNLV to 14, Wisconsin to 24 on the road, and Nebraska to 13 in Lincoln. Iowa just doesn’t have the skill position players to break this game open. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-25-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans -1.5 | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
542 Dallas at New Orleans The Mavericks had an easy time against a very weak Wizards team, who somehow found a way to get the cover. But Dallas dominated that game from the opening tip. Which would normally have us looking towards the Mavs, but we dislike the Wizards so much we simply cannot do it. New Orleans is without its prized recruit for the time being and this team gave it all in Toronto. But despite the 130-122 overtime loss we liked what we saw from this young team. New Orleans despite the final score was better than the defending champs on opening night. We expect that to continue tonight at home. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
534 Toronto at Boston The Raptors survived on ring night with a huge come from behind overtime victory. This team was outplayed most of the night by New Orleans, and we expect regression here. The Celtics were completely dominated by the Sixers last time out, don’t let the 14 point final margin fool you. This team simply didn’t come to play as the lack of focus was evident. Philadelphia wanted that game and the Celtics simply went through the motions. With Boston having an elite coaching staff we expect a big turnaround game for the host. PLAY BOSTON |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
473 Philadelphia at Dallas Second of three straight road games for the Eagles off a loss at Minnesota. While Philadelphia slowly gets healthy the Cowboys are suffering several key injuries including two offensive linemen and its best receiver. Without a healthy Amari Cooper this passing game has been a disaster. Dallas started the season on fire as the new offensive coordinator looked like a huge upgrade. But this imaginative offense early on has become increasingly stagnant. What looked like impressive wins over the Giants, Redskins and Miami, now look much worse as those teams are among the worst in the league. The Cowboys are 18-30 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett. The Eagles have a huge coaching edge here and are playing with triple revenge in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
452 Arizona at New York Giants The Cardinals offense still hasn’t performed as expected by the new coaching staff. Despite getting a returning player in the defensive backfield we just don’t believe in this Arizona stop unit. New York has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. With several key players returning for the Giants this line surprises us. We were expecting something a couple points higher. Maybe playing Cincinnati and Atlanta, as opposed to Minnesota and New England has the betting markets fooled. We will take advantage of that and back the better team at home with extra rest. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
454 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans sure have a lot of new backers after edging the Chiefs last week. But we are not one of them. This is still a team that struggles to protect the quarterback. And Frank Reich and company have really been able to get to DeShaun Watson. This is the second straight road game for Houston, who have just one winning road season under Bill O’Brien. The Colts are on a bye week after beating the Chiefs themselves in a more impressive game just two weeks ago. Indy is 7-3 SU at home under Reich and matches up well with the Texans. Indy is 3-1 the past two seasons against Houston despite only having a combined 11-17 record against the rest of the league. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
390 Baylor at Oklahoma State We really liked the Baylor Bears coming into the season and they sure haven’t disappointed with a perfect 6-0 record. But the Bears are now playing for the fifth straight week, with four of those contests being decided by one score. The Bears have been on the right side of the coin flip games, which can’t go on forever. The last three weeks Baylor has beaten Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech by a combined 106 yards. It was a +4 turnover margin that turned those games toward the Bears. From a game score level the Cowboys are 1.2 points better than the Bears. We also show that Oklahoma State has played the much tougher schedule, a full six points per game tougher. The host is also coming off a bye which gives them a full week head start on preparations. This line has risen by a point at this writing, and it’s still showing plenty of value. As much as we like Baylor, the Bears will suffer its first loss of the season Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 125 h 51 m | Show |
318 Duke at Virginia We went against the Wahoos last week with success as Virginia came up short against Miami Florida on Friday. But now we look to back Virginia with an extra day of prep. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke each of the last four seasons by margins of 14, 7, 14 and 8 points. And Virginia’s best defensive player was declared out for the season on a special teams play last week. That should be a rallying point for the host, as teams really come together the following game after losing a leader. These two teams have played exactly equal schedules based on our numbers. Yet Duke is only outgaining the opposition by 0.14 yards per play, while Virginia is up 0.72 yards per play. The current numbers assumes these two clubs are equal, but our numbers show Virginia to be the correct side. On a two game losing streak we expect Virginia to turn its season around here, as it continues to dominate the Blue Devils. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan v. Bowling Green +12 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
336 Central Michigan at Bowling Green Going off of game scores we can see the reason why the Chippewas as a double digit favorite here. Central is averaging a game score of 82.6 while the Falcons are at 67.0. But a closer look at the schedules played shows that Bowling Green has faced six point tougher FBS opponents. Despite a 52-0 loss at Notre Dame there were some signs of improvement. Last week the team had its best week of practice on the season, and it manifested itself on the field with an impressive 20-7 win over Toledo. We watched that game and the dominance was real, as we recommended a second half play on Bowling Green for our Twitter followers. It cashed easily, and we feel we have a nice edge on the market again here. A major key in sports betting success is staying ahead of the betting public when it comes to changes on the field. Bowling Green has been bad for so long nobody wants to back them. That is why we can find added value in catching the improvement at the early stages. This will be the eighth straight week Central Michigan has had a game, with Buffalo and Northern Illinois on deck. Bowling Green is much fresher after having a bye before the Notre Dame contest. The biggest jump for a team is after a bye week with a first year coach. This team has looked totally different since putting in more plays in that bye week. The team is extremely excited after that Toledo victory last week, and we expect the new and improved Falcons to surprise once again this week. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
309 Marshall at Florida Atlantic The sharp books are starting to show money on the road underdog and we agree. Florida Atlantic has lived off turnovers the last four games with a +8 margin. It so happened the Owls won each of those contests. But looking a bit deeper we see that Middle Tennessee last week had 95 more yards and five more first downs than the Owls. It took a +3 turnover edge to win that contest. When looking at Marshall the Thundering Herd have only turned the ball over eight times all season. Marshall runs the ball well at 5.5 yards per carry. The Owls have only slowed down Wagner and Charlotte on the ground this year. Facing closely equal schedules Marshall is +0.52 in yards per play, while Florida International is -0.77. With over a full yard advantage per play, and the ability to move the ball on the ground, we can’t pass up this road underdog. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
110 Virginia at Miami Fl We were high on the Cavaliers coming into the season, but just haven’t seen enough out of this club to trust them on the road here. Our numbers show these two teams have played exactly the same schedules strength wise. Virginia has played 3 of 5 at home with an average game score of 93.2. Miami played a neutral site game along with three at home and one away. The Hurricanes have an average game score of 97.3. When we break down the numbers we find the Cavaliers with a 0.99 yards per play advantage, while Miami is plus 1.79. The host is going with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback this week. He led the Hurricanes back last week after falling behind Virginia Tech early. In that game Miami outgained the Hokies by 226 yards and ten first downs. It was a -5 turnover margin that cost them the game. That’s the first time all season the Hurricanes lost the turnover battle. Miami has outgained every opponent this season including Florida in the season opener. Miami is a much better team than the 2-3 record. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
910 Houston at Tampa Bay Verlander and Castillo RUN LINE PLAY The Rays are going to make it a bullpen day and we like the thinking. Houston has pounded lefties this season, while having a comparable record vs righties as the Rays. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough will likely only get two innings, which is much better than the four to five innings he would normally work filling in for an opener in the regular season. That leaves Poche and McKay as the only other lefties in the bullpen. Houston is 70-45 vs righties while the Rays are 65-43. Houston is 47-35 on the road while Tampa is 49-33 at home. The Stros are 22-8 over the past month while the Rays are 20-10. All the numbers are comparable except that Houston sends Justin Verlander and a likely Cy Young to the mound. Verlander has 32 starts this year, all on four days or more rest. He just threw 100 pitches on October 4th. So now on three days rest the Astros are bringing him back early for the first time all season. This line is being based on him pitching his usual length, but it would not surprise us at all if he is on some type of a pitch count. With that knowledge this line is extremely high. The Astros deserve to be favored, but there is plenty of value on the home dog here. Instead of calling for the outright Rays victory, we will take the generous 1 1/2 runs in a game with a 7 1/2 run total. PLAY TAMPA BAY +1 1/2 RUN LINE |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
458 Jacksonville at Carolina Surprised by the line movement on this game as we have the Panthers as the higher rated squad. Just from an average game grade Carolina is two points better, which should make this line a bargain at the current price. The Panthers are an improved offense when you take away the games started by the injured Cam Newton. He didn’t have the ability to throw down field or use his legs. By taking out those contests the Panthers are an even bigger favorite here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -5.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
459 Minnesota at NY Giants The Vikings have an average game score of 83 on the road, but that was against the much improved Packers defense, and the reigning #1 stop unit of the Bears. We all know Kirk Cousins struggles against winning teams, but now he gets to face the easiest opponent of the season. The Giants have gotten new life with the change at quarterback, but after facing the defenses of Tampa Bay and Washington, this is a huge upgrade. Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the ball, and are a solid road favorite play in the Mike Zimmer regime. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-06-19 | Bills +3 v. Titans | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
469 Buffalo at Tennessee This Buffalo defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. The last two meetings with the Titans resulted in 13-12 and 14-13 victories for Buffalo. Based on the weakness of these offenses, we can see a similar outcome here. We simply want no part of this Tennessee offense facing the type of pressure the Bills bring. This is the best stop unit Marriota and company have faced this year. We expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY BUFFALO |