Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
356 Iowa at Michigan Turnovers and regression are the key handicap in this contest of Big 10 contenders. We’ve witnessed for ourselves the problems the Wolverines have had holding on to the football. So far the count is three interceptions and 12 fumbles. The later being the major outlier. Overall Michigan sits at -4 turnovers this season. Iowa on the other hand has played near perfect ball, losing one turnover all season. The Hawkeyes overall +5 turnover margin is one of the leaders in the country. That nine turnover differential is one reason money is coming in against the host. Before the season started the Games of the Year plays offered by the various sports books had Michigan listed as a 10 1/2 point favorite. This major move is based more on turnover differential than talent advantages. This is a cheap number for the host. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-05-19 | Utah State +28 v. LSU | 6-42 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
393 Utah State at LSU Huge opportunity for the Aggies to make a name for themselves on the national stage. Utah State has been at its best since 2009 as a road underdog with a 25-15 ATS mark, 9-2 ATS as a double digit road dog. LSU has played a two point tougher FBS schedule, yet the game score numbers show this Mountain West underdog to be somewhat competitive here. The Aggies only allow 2.7 ypc which should slow down this LSU running game. The Tigers passing game is elite, but Utah State has a solid QB in Jordan Love who can put points on the board to keep this relatively close. Can Utah State win? Probably not, but it does have the athletes to battle with one of the best teams in college football. LSU is off a bye, but do you really think the focus was on this small team from out west? No, it’s on Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, the next three weeks. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Panthers +4.5 v. Texans | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
251 Carolina at Houston Carolina has had a productive offense this season, despite the starting QB being limited because of injury. Now with a healthy backup behind center we look for the Panthers to build on its success last week. Defensively the Panthers are 2nd in the league in yards per play. They are especially strong defensing the pass, allowing just 166 yards per game through the air. Offensively Houston struggles to protect Watson, allowing a sack rate just short of 13% every time he goes back to pass. That’s 30th in the league. The Texans have been terrible stopping the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry. We feel the Panthers are the better team, and have proven themselves away from home. This is a more than fair number we will take advantage of. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
180 East Carolina at Old Dominion In FBS games Old Dominion has looked much better than the Pirates. When comparing yards per game ODU is much better than East Carolina. The Pirates were out gained by 236 yards at NC State, and 246 yards at Navy. The Monarchs played at Virginia Tech losing the yardage by 79, and won the yardage last week at Virginia by 26. We were on Old Dom last week and view them as a bet on team. They are holding the opposition to 2.74 yards per carry. Which is key as East Carolina has a weak passing game. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -12 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
174 Virginia at Notre Dame The Cavaliers have played three FBS games with a +3 combined turnover advantage. In those games they out yarded the opposition by just 107 total yards, despite playing 2 of 3 at home. Virginia averaged 3.9 ypc against Pittsburgh, 3.8 npc against Florida State and only 2.4 ypc last week vs Old Dominion. Needless to say if this team can’t run this week, they can’t compete. Defensively Virginia has yet to force a fumble, while ND has forced ten. The Irish in three games have a turnover margin of -4. We were really impressed by this team last week giving Georgia all they could handle. In fact, they were only out gained by 18 despite giving the Bulldogs four extra possessions via turnover. With only Bowling Green on deck we look for the Irish to bounce back in a big way. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
202 USC at Washington In our opinion the Trojans are coming off a nationally televised victory that they didn’t deserve. Utah had 11 more first downs and out gained the Trojans by 76 yards. USC is 1-6 as a road underdog under Clay Helton. They are 8-9 straight up on the road in his tenure. Despite playing 3 of 4 games at home USC is being beaten in ypc by 1.39. Washington has out gained every opponent it faced, and owns a +1.12 ypc on the season. The Huskies defense has intercepted more balls (4), than TD’s allowed (3). USC is down to its fourth string QB coming out of the spring. We doubt this offense has much success against this quality Huskies defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +4.5 v. California | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
111 Arizona State at California Last week we faded an Arizona State team that was ranked 24th in the country. It paid off as Colorado won outright. This week we fade another overrated PAC12 team as Cal enters this contest ranked 15th. Knowing how to read the betting markets is a key to making a living in this industry. Here we see the ranked California team being installed as a 5 1/2 point favorite as an opener. Since that time a steady stream of money has come in on the unranked visitor. And we fully agree with that market move. Cal has been out gained in all three FBS contests. The key to the Bears victories was a +3 turnover margin. That’s not likely to continue this week as Arizona State has an attacking defense that has already forced 13 fumbles on the season. The Sun Devils are also allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. A solid number in what we all expect to be a low scoring game. With Arizona State taking care of the ball with just one interception on the season, we find plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
104 Navy at Memphis This line has bounced around since opening at 11 1/2 on Sunday. It went as low as 10 but was quickly gobbled up. We make this line 15 so we have plenty of value on the host. Navy coming off a rare down season with a 3-10 mark, started the year with impressive wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina. But despite the 87-17 combined winning margin we haven’t really been impressed. Especially considering how disappointing the Pirates of East Carolina have been. Neither of those teams has an offense to challenge this questionable Midshipmen defense. Memphis is coming in off a bye, which gives the team extra time to prepare for the option. That’s a key ingredient in this handicap. The Tigers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five seasons coming in off a bye. Mike Norvell has really had his team ready with extra preparation time. He’s covered the number by a combined 56 1/2 points in his five games after a bye. Memphis is also looking to avenge a 22-21 loss last year in Annapolis. With Navy riding a ten game straight up losing streak on the road, we fire on the home favorite here. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much. The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
190 Florida State at Virginia The Seminoles survived last weeks 45-44 victory over Louisiana Monroe. After two games this Florida State defense has been on the field for 187 total plays. The Seminoles defense ranks 118th in the country in allowing explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Virginia on the other hand ranks 22nd in that same category. Despite entering play with a -1 turnover margin, the Cavaliers have outgunned the opposition by a combined 365 yards. The win over Pittsburgh 30-14 looks much better after the Panthers pounded the MAC favorite Ohio 20-10 last week. Florida State hasn’t fared well when getting hit in the face this season. The team gets off to a nice start, but once trouble starts this team has shown little character. Bronco Mendenhall always gets the best out of his players. And the host has the much more complete team. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-14-19 | Texas State +17.5 v. SMU | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
179 Texas State at SMU Coming off a game in which it outplayed Wyoming in a loss. We are willing to back under the radar Texas State to keep this one interesting. QB Frank Harris has posted a 71.7% completion rate on the season and has enough talent to keep this SMU offense off the field. SMU is off a solid win over North Texas, and has a step up game against instate host TCU next week. Nice spot and value on the instate underdog here. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-14-19 | Army -17 v. UTSA | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
141 Army at UTSA The Black Knights took the Wolverines to overtime last week. Despite the loss the Cadets were the better squad. Normally you would look for a letdown here from a normal football team, but military squads are much stronger mentally. Army only has Morgan State on deck, and you have to feel that last week will bring them in with positive momentum. The Road Runners have a conference game with North Texas on deck, after facing off with the Big 12 entrant Baylor. This will be the first time Texas San Antonio has faced off against an option squad. So how much prep will they have considering the spot. Keep in mind UTSA ranks 111th in explosiveness. Not a good sign when taking on a team that will dominate the clock. PLAY ARMY |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
104 North Carolina at Wake Forest Tar Heels have gotten off to an impressive start with victories over South Carolina and Miami Florida. But going out on the road for your first true away game on a short week is going to be very difficult, especially after facing a physical Hurricanes stop unit. North Carolina was 0-6 SU last year and 2-9 SU the past two seasons. Only one road game last year was decided by less than seven points. Keep in mind despite the 28-25 home win over Miami, the Tar Heels were outgunned by 99 yards. Wake Forest is also off to a nice 2-0 start with wins over Utah State and Rice. This is a great spot for the Demon Deacons, off Rice and with Elon on deck. Dave Clawson has been a money maker since coming to Winston-Salem with a 32-26-2 spread record. After back to back three win seasons, his teams have won seven games or more the last three years. This squad can start the year 4-0 with a victory here. A huge season could be in store with Boston College, Louisville and Florida state upcoming. In fact, the game at Clemson in mid-November could be Wake’s only loss on the year. But we are getting way ahead of ourselves in that regard. Our numbers show Wake to be the better team and the scheduling spot gives us even more ammunition. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
388 California at Washington Major revenge game here for the Huskies who lost 12-10 last year in Berkeley. Word out of Seattle is that former Georgia Bulldog Jacob Eason is making a strong case for this Huskies offense. Washington put up 47 points last week against a very good FCS program Eastern Washington. Eason has a 190 passer rating in that contest. We all know about this defense which held the opposition to just 4.2 yards per play. California only averaged 21.5 points per game a year ago, and managed just 27 last week against Cal Davis. The Bears ended last season scoring 15 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 games. Can’t see how Cal can score enough points to keep it close against this terrific Washington defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-07-19 | Tulane v. Auburn -17 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
372 Tulane at Auburn Now that this line has come into range we are going to pounce on this cheaply priced favorite. Tulane ran the ball right down the throat of the FIU defense last week, averaging 7.1 yards per carry on 49 attempts. That’s just what the Green Wave do. But that was against a smaller defense, not one of the biggest and fastest in the country like you find in the SEC. Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in college football. Last week the Tigers held the Ducks to just 2.7 yards per carry. A team with an NFL ready quarterback and a dangerous offense. Many will talk about the letdown after a last second victory. That is why this line has dropped. But we now have a huge point spread advantage, as this has been a huge reaction. No way this situation is worth five points or more in the betting line. This price is one hell of a bargain. PLAY AUBURN |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
331 Nebraska at Colorado Nebraska struggled in a 35-21 win over South Alabama last week. Despite putting up 35 points the team only averaged 2.2 npc and 4.2 yards per play. It was the Cornhuskers defense that was dominant. It’s quite possible that the players looked past the Sun Belt entrant with Colorado revenge on deck. The Buffaloes beat Colorado State 52-31 but really struggled to put away a bad FBS team. The Rams ran for 4.2 npc and averaged 6.5 yards per play. While the Colorado offense looked impressive, it did so against a Colorado State defense that permitted 37 points per game a year ago and return just six defensive starters. Before last week our numbers had Nebraska to win this game by 8 points. This line has moved too much off last weeks results. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
317 Syracuse at Maryland What a difference in the line when you blow out a nobody 79-0. Maryland crushed Howard last week and now the markets are buying into the Terrapins. The same Maryland team who made a terrible higher of Mike Locksley as head coach. Sure he’s a solid recruiter, but he’s never shown the ability to lead a team. He was 2-26 at New Mexico before being fired. He was an assistant here and his teams never won more than seven games in any of his four years. Yes, he was offensive coordinator at Alabama the past two seasons, but just about any coach can have success there with that elite talent. Syracuse has a proven head coach in Dino Babers, who took this team from a four win squad in his first year to ten wins last season. Babers won 18 games in two seasons at Bowling Green. The Falcons won nine total in the three years since he has left. Before last week we had Syracuse rated eight points higher than the Terrapins. After each team shutout its opening week opponent, the market is saying Syracuse is just one point better? We don’t buy it. Plenty of added value on the visitor here. Btw, Babers is 9-3 ATS here as a road underdog. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
451 Green Bay at Chicago The Packers were a 7.4 pythagorean win team a year ago. That was with Mike McCarthy who was finally fired by Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers played with an injured knee all season. Between his improved health and a fresh offensive play calling outlook, we expect much better things from the Packers. Green Bay was 27th in the league in play-action passes a year ago. That number will rise significantly with the coaching change. Chicago had an 11.5 pythagorean win team last year. The Bears lost Vic Fangio after the season which should have an affect on that terrific defense from a year ago. This team was 20th in offensive DVOA and opponents will be more prepared for the running of Mitch Trubisky. The Packers have this game circled after not making the playoffs last two years, and the Bears are considered the class of the division. A solid handicapping angle for the opening week also puts us on the divisional road dog here. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
216 Oklahoma at Houston Love the Houston quarterback D’Eriq King who had an outstanding QBR of 167 last season. He brings back a talented offense, but we have major concerns about this Cougars defense. The team permitted 37.2 points per game a year ago, and that was with #9 NFL draft pick Ed Oliver. Oklahoma has set offensive records each of the last two years, and brings in former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts. The concern is a depleted offensive line that lost four players in the first four rounds of the draft. While the offense is likely to see some regression, we love the defensive moves in the offseason. The defensive key is the new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. He did wonders with Washington State in his two years there. Word from camp is the entire defense is buying in, and key defensive linemen have built up muscle while losing weight. That should really work well against this type of offense in Houston. While we expect this game to be extremely high scoring, we expect the Sooners to threaten 60 points. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-30-19 | Utah State +5 v. Wake Forest | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
147 Utah State at Wake Forest The Aggies are coming off a tremendous season that saw Matt Wells leave for a higher paying job. Gary Anderson returns to Logan after a previous stint from 2009-2012. Anderson posted a 15-5 ATS mark here in non-conference action. While many have pointed to the return of just nine starters, the team brought back just nine starters a year ago and won 11 games. The key is returning starting QB Jordan Love, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. We highly respect Wake coach Dave Clawson, but we don’t expect much out of this squad this season. The Demon Deacons are second to last in the ACC in recruiting, and this offense is sure to regress this season. Every newsletter we read favored Wake Forest here, and yet the line hasn’t risen. That’s because the smart money knows how good this Aggies team really is. Sure, we would rather have Matt Wells on the sideline, but if he was still here Utah State may have been favored. Better quarterback and the stronger defense as an underdog is something we rarely see. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
918 Detroit at Minnesota VerHagen & Berrios The Twins are 18-10 vs the Tigers the past two seasons. Drew VerHagan has gotten three starts for Detroit with game scores of 54, 31 and 24. Those starts came against the White Sox, Angels and Mariners. Now he steps up in class to face the Twins. Jose Berrios has an average game score of 55 his last five against the Tigers. Detroit is 21-44 on the road and 28-70 vs righties. Let’s take advantage of the pitching mismatch. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE -1.5 |
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08-15-19 | Jets v. Falcons -1.5 | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 33 m | Show | |
404 NY Jets at Atlanta Third preseason game for the Falcons who featured the running game a week ago. The coaches talked about playing the starters longer this week. With Atlanta working on its passing game and the Jets dealing with injuries in the defensive backfield, we like Atlanta to grab the victory here. New York is also having offensive line concerns, so we doubt the starting quarterback will be long for this one. PLAY ATLANTA |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 106-105 | Push | 0 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
530 Golden State at Toronto The much better team in this series has been the Toronto Raptors. If you were to take the names off the front of the jerseys the Raptors would be a clear betting favorite. If it wasn’t for one half of a basketball game Toronto would already be champions. Toronto was favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points before the news broke that Kevin Durant would try to play tonight. I’m now seeing a three to four point line move, for a player who hasn’t stepped on the court in weeks. He’s an excellent player when fully healthy, but that’s not what we will be getting tonight. Besides, if you are Durant, a free agent after these playoffs, do you really want to risk the chance of getting further injured right before a huge payday? The Warriors have played without him for weeks, and now they must adjust to him back in the lineup. If this was a regular season game the wise guys would be looking to fad the Warriors here. We look to do the same even if it is the playoffs. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-25-19 | Longwood +14.5 v. DePaul | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
609 Longwood at DePauk The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here. PLAY LONGWOOD |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo v. Texas Tech -4 | Top | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
870 Buffalo & Texas Tech Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-21-19 | Northeastern +7.5 v. Kansas | 53-87 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
783 Northeastern & Kansas Kansas is only 8-9 when not playing at home this season. Although this is the top team in the country in SOS. Kansas is getting out rebounded by 2.4 per game. The Campus is 1073 miles from this location, so the committee didn’t do the Jayhawks any favors for a change. Northeastern is 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage. But 328th in the country in offensive rebounds. So neither team has an advantage on the glass. We haven’t liked this Kansas team all season, and with the injuries to key players this club is just a shell of its preseason hype. There is a reason why the Jayhawks are seeded this way, and the location doesn’t help the situation. This one will go down to the wire. PLAY NORTHEASTERN |
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03-21-19 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
781 New Mexico State & Auburn The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense. Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
774 Minnesota & Louisville Rick Pitino Jr taking on Louisville where his dad coached is a major story here. The Golden Gophers are a poor shooting team. This club is only 2-9 in true road games. Louisville is just 3-8 against Top 25 opposition, but Minnesota is far from that type of quality team. While the Cards are just 3-7 its last 10 games, this is a club that is 4th ranked in SOS. The coaching edge should be huge here as we favor the Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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03-18-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +7 | 119-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
534 Detroit at Cleveland Cavaliers return home off a winless three game road trip. The last time the Cavs faced the Pistons, Detroit crushed them 129-93. But after a long season of injuries to its key players, the Cavaliers are starting to define their roles. Detroit is playing in the second game of a back to back. Winning an impressive game hosting Toronto yesterday. With the next two days being off days, and looking for a 4-0 season sweep of the Cavaliers. We can’t see Detroit being fully invested here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-15-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
814 Iowa & Michigan Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-13-19 | Pistons +2 v. Heat | 74-108 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
547 Detroit at Miami Both teams are fighting for playoff spots and are playing very well at the moment. But we prefer the Pistons getting the points. Detroit has played slightly better on the road this season, while Miami has really struggled at home this year. The Heat are just 4-7 straight up at home as of late. Detroit on the other hand is 6-4 straight up on the road, including a 119-96 win here in Miami just three weeks ago. PLAY DETROIT |
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03-12-19 | Binghamton +16.5 v. Vermont | Top | 51-84 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
603 Binghamton at Vermont The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this. The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest. PLAY BINGHAMTON |
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03-11-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
888 San Diego & St Mary’s Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today. PLAY ST MARY’S |
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03-10-19 | Pelicans +2 v. Hawks | 116-128 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
507 New Orleans at Atlanta Pelicans have dropped two straight games to Utah and Toronto, and have Milwaukee and Portland on deck. This is the game New Orleans needs to avoid an extended losing streak. Atlanta has lost three straight to Miami, San Antonio and Brooklyn. The Nets loss was a 114-112 defeat last night at home. The Hawks are on a 3-10 SU run at home with the only victories coming against The Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers. Can’t trust this team in a win and cover situation. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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03-09-19 | Celtics v. Lakers +6 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. |
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03-06-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
535 Cleveland at Brooklyn The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-04-19 | Hawks +9 v. Heat | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
503 Atlanta at Miami Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play. Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-03-19 | Magic v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
582 Orlando at Cleveland Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers +9 v. Iowa | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
697 Rutgers at Iowa Revenge game for the Scarlet Knights who lost at home to Iowa in a game the team really thought it deserved. The strength of the Iowa defense is only allowing 31.8% shooting from downtown. Yet Rutgers rarely shoots from behind the 3 point line. Rutgers is very good defensively around the rim allowing just 55.5% of opponent shots to be successful. With both teams going in opposite directions and the Iowa coach being suspended, we will gladly take the points with the Scarlet Knights. PLAY RUTGERS |
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03-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game. The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-28-19 | William & Mary -2.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
611 William & Mary at Towson The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on. PLAY WILLIAM & MARY |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Virginia | Top | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
787 Georgia Tech at Virginia Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-26-19 | Akron v. Buffalo -14 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
604 Akron at Buffalo The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-25-19 | Blazers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
562 Portland at Cleveland Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it. Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-23-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -9 | 54-57 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
602 Northern Illinois at Toledo 20-6 Rockets are off back to back losses with road games at Ball State and Central Michigan on deck. Huskies have had a full week off, so it may come out a bit rusty to start this game. Northern Illinois allows 48.2% of opponents shots to come from behind the arc. That’s not a good thing when we see the Rockers making 37.1% from long range on the season. Great spot for the Rockets and the matchup favors Toledo to dominate from distance on its own home court. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State -6.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
632 Indiana State at Missouri State The Bears are off an embarrassing loss, being held to just 43 points against Northern Iowa, a team they lost twice to this season. That offensive output was 12 points worse than in any other game this season. Missouri State matches up well in this contest, as the Bears weakness is allowing 40.6% success from 3 point range, but Indiana State only attempts 28.3% of its shots from long range. The Sycamores attempt way to many midrange shots, and Missouri State funnels its defense to force the opposition to take 38% of its shots from that low percentage area. Missouri State is also excellent defensively at the rim allowing only 23% of opponents shots to be taken in that high success area. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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02-23-19 | Virginia -5 v. Louisville | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
607 Virginia at Louisville The Cavaliers haven’t lost to a team other than Duke all season. This team is even better on the road than at home, a clear sign of a team that can go deep in the big dance. This is a terrible matchup for the Cardinals who take 43.4% of its shots from long range. Virginia allows only 25.8% success defensively from beyond the arc. We saw how bad Louisville struggled last time out against a defense that made them one dimensional, as Syracuse held them to 49 points in a 20 point loss. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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02-22-19 | Davidson v. Rhode Island | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
863 Davidson at Rhode Island This is just a very good matchup for the visitor, who has performed better on the road than the host has at home. When it comes down to Davidson it’s all about the three point shot. This team attempts a whopping 47.8% of its shots from beyond the arc. The weakness of this Wildcats defense is allowing the opposition to attempt 45.5% from that same distance. But Rhode Island only attempts 32.5% from long range and makes a lowly 25.2% from behind the arc. Therefore Davidson doesn’t have to worry about getting beat from deep. The Rams attempt 41.1% of its shots at the rim, but Davidson holds the opposition to just 30.3% of its shots in that area. So Davidson can get the shots it wants, while the Rams will struggle to get off the shots it wants. PLAY DAVIDSON |
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02-20-19 | Louisville v. Syracuse -2 | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
796 Louisville at Syracuse Tough spot here for the Cardinals who are off three tight games before hosting Virginia. Louisville had to go to overtime against Florida State, lost by two against Duke and followed that up with a one point win hosting Clemson. We all know it’s easier to shoot well from behind the arc at home, but on the road could be a different story here. Louisville attempts 43% of its shots from long range, and Syracuse allows opponents to take 48.1% of its shots from distance. So the Cardinals should get plenty of three point attempts, but the Orange are very good inside defensively. On the season Syracuse has held the opposition to just 30.1% shooting behind the arc at home. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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02-16-19 | Pacific v. Santa Clara | 59-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
743 Pacific at Santa Clara Home loss revenge for the Tigers who dropped a double digit decision earlier. This should be a nice matchup for the visitor as Santa Clara permits 44.4% of shots attempted at the rim. The Pacific weakness is allowing 43.6% of opponents shots from beyond the arc, but this team doesn’t attempt a great deal of threes. The Broncos have had a very poor home court advantage all season, and have dropped 3 of 4 outright here lately. PLAY PACIFIC |
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02-16-19 | Ohio +6 v. Central Michigan | 80-87 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
681 Ohio at Central Michigan Simply can’t trust the Chippewas here to lay this type of number. Central has dropped 5 of 7 with one of the victories being by just four points. Host has also lost 2 of 4 SU lately at home. Ohio has lost four in a row themselves, but the talent level is much closer than the betting number represents. PLAY OHIO |
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02-15-19 | South Alabama +8.5 v. Georgia State | 81-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
859 South Alabama at Georgia State Home loss revenge for the Jaguars who dropped the earlier meeting 69-66 in mid-January. After losing five straight South Alabama has now won 3 of 5. The Panthers of Georgia State started conference action hot but have cooled off as of late. Dropping 4 of the last 7 games. Georgia State permits 45.2% of opponents shots to be taken from distance, which keeps the visitor in the game throughout. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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02-14-19 | Southern Utah +3.5 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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02-13-19 | USC v. Stanford -1 | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
848 USC at Stanford Trojans knocked off Stanford at home 77-66 where USC has played much better ball. But on the road this team is just 1-5 straight up on the season with the lone win coming at Washington State. A concern for USC here is mid-range shooting. The Trojans take 31.9% of its shots from that area, while Stanford forces opponents to take 30.7% of its shots from the least efficient area of the court. Stanford on the other hand attacks the rim with 44.9% of its shots close to the hoop, as opposed to the Trojans who only take 34.2% of its attempts from close range.Revenge for the Cardinal tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 102 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
503 Milwaukee at Indiana In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-12-19 | Duke -8 v. Louisville | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
637 Duke at Louisville With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. PLAY DUKE |
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02-11-19 | Bucks -11.5 v. Bulls | Top | 112-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
563 Milwaukee at Chicago Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3.5 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
830 Cincinnati at Houston Huge matchup in the American Conference on Sunday. 20-3 Cincinnati, the first place team, heads to Texas to take on the Houston Cougars. Interesting matchup as the Bearcats are more than willing to let opponents shoot from behind the arc. Cincinnati is allowing opponents to take 44.3% of its shots from long range. Houston on the other hand takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. That should mean many chances for three pointers from the host. The Bearcats shoot way to many midrange shots, 35.6% from that low percentage area. Houston’s defense forces opponents to take 29.5% from that part of the court, allowing just 30.4% accuracy. In this perimeter game we favor the host who is attempting to break the conference first place tie with the Bearcats. PLAY HOUSTON |
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02-09-19 | Long Beach State v. Cal Poly +3.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
758 Long Beach State at Cal Poly A down year for the 49ers is looking worse by the day as Long Beach brings a six game losing streak into this contest. This is a team that is 1-10 straight up on the road this season, and yet is favored here. Cal Poly forces opponents to attempt 29.1% of attempts from midrange, while for some reason Long Beach State takes a whopping 41.1% of its shots from that low efficiency area. That in itself tells us all about the wrong team being favored here. PLAY CAL POLY |
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02-09-19 | Utah +4 v. UCLA | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
685 Utah at UCLA The Utes have won four of five on the road as of late, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Arizona. UCLA has dropped five of seven overall, and four of seven here at home. Utah takes 45.4% of its shots from downtown, and UCLA allows 41.3% of opponent shots from that area. So the Utes should get plenty of good looks from its favorite spot on the floor. UCLA prefers taking shots at the rim, attempting 44.5% of its shots in that range. But Utah forces opponents out of that area, permitting just 31.9% attempts close to the basket. PLAY UTAH |
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02-09-19 | Dayton +2 v. Rhode Island | 77-48 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
679 Dayton at Rhode Island Flyers have only lost three road games this entire season, but the third came last time out at St Louis. In that game Dayton was held to a conference low in scoring in a 73-60 defeat. Rhode Island has dropped three of four as of late with the lone win coming against that same St Louis team. Dayton allows the opposition to shoot 42.9% of its shots behind the arc, but the Rams shoot a terrible 26.3% from that distance. The Flyers also force the opposition into attempting 29.5% of opponents shots from the least efficient area of midrange. Dayton itself shoots an excellent 73.9% at the rim while Rhode Island allows opponents to attempt 40.2% of its shots from that area. Very good matchup for the Flyers. PLAY DAYTON |
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02-09-19 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
658 Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State Two teams with disappointing seasons playing out the conference string. This is the fifth straight road game for the Panthers, who have dropped five straight away from home. Milwaukee permits a whopping 45.5% of opponents shots to be taken from beyond the arc, while that plays right into the Vikings hands at home. Cleveland State takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. Milwaukee also takes 29.2% of its shots from midrange, while only forcing the opposition to take 20.5% from that poor shooting area. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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02-09-19 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. Clemson | 51-59 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
607 Virginia Tech at Clemson Tech off a rare home loss as Louisville beat them 72-64 on Monday. That’s the only home defeat for the Hokies this year. This is a very good matchup for the visitor as Virginia Tech forces the opposition to beat them from deep, something the Tigers haven’t fared well in doing. Opponents take 49.3% of all shots against the Hokies from 3 point range, but Clemson shoots just 32.2% from behind the arc. Clemson does shoot well from the paint at 64.7% but the Hokies only permit 28.2% of opponent shots to come from that range. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-05-19 | Michigan State -10 v. Illinois | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
603 Michigan State at Illinois Short and sweet the Spartans have been excellent coming off of a loss. Now 61% ats after a defeat and the same 61% off back to back losses. This team has much more talent than the Illini, and the host's home court value is weak. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
534 Atlanta at Washington Third game in four days for the Hawks who are off five straight games on the west coast. This is a one game stopover before returning to Atlanta for a seven game home stand. This should be a throwaway game for a team just playing out the schedule with no postseason expectations. Washington is rested and at home for the third straight game. This game is sandwiched in between games against the Milwaukee Bucks, so this is the contest the Wizards will be focused on. Great situational play for the host. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-02-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
507 Milwaukee at Washington The Bucks have been outstanding in seeking revenge for an in season loss. Last game out they kept the winners coming with a 105-92 upset of the Raptors. Milwaukee lost to Washington 113-106 on January 11th. WE will back the best team in the east against a disappointing Wizards squad. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-01-19 | Yale +1.5 v. Harvard | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
857 Yale at Harvard Yale has won 11 of 12 as of late with the only loss coming on the road at Duke. The visitor should dominate at the rim shooting 67.7% on 40.2% of the teams shots. Harvard permits 95% shooting on dunks, and Yale averages 10.7% of their shots taken at that spot. Yale defends the 3 very well allowing only 31% shooting from long range, while Harvard takes a whopping 42.6% of its shots from downtown. PLAY YALE |
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01-31-19 | Connecticut v. UCF -7 | 67-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
638 Connecticut at Central Florida This is not a good matchup for the Huskies. It lost at home to the Golden Knights 65-53 earlier in January. The problem for the visitor here is It has major problems stopping the opposition down low. UConn permits 8.9% of opponents shots on dunks, and 42.2% of opponents shots at the rim. UCF on the other hand feasts down low with 13.3% of shots being dunks, and limiting opponents to shooting just 51.5% at the rim. Unless the Huskies dominate from behind the arc, in which UCF allows only 32.1%, the host should run right buy this line with plenty of time to spare. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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01-30-19 | Illinois v. Minnesota -6 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
822 Illinois at Minnesota The Fighting Illini spanked the Gophers at home 95-68 two weeks ago. That’s one of two wins for Illinois in the past nine games. Minnesota is 11-1 straight up at home on the season. The host has a huge edge at the rim, attempting 42.8% of its shots there, while Illinois allows 66.3% from the field in that area. The Gophers force the opposition to shoot 29.8% of its shots in a low efficiency area of the court, and the Illini only shoot 30.5% from the area in front of the arc and outside the paint.Minnesota gains its revenge in a big way here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-29-19 | Nevada -9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 87-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
639 Nevada at UNLV The Rebels just aren’t a good basketball team. The only reason it has gotten off to a decent start is because UNLV played the worst teams early in the schedule. This is a team that allows opponents to take 40.3% of its shots at the rim. Nevada shoots 67% at the rim on the season, so the Wolfpack should get any shot near the basket it wants. Nevada permits 41.7% of opponent shots behind the arc, but UNLV isn’t that accurate from long distance. We would much rather have a team that can dominate inside, as opposed to a team that would need a hot game from distance to be competitive. This is also a major revenge game for the Wolfpack who lost to the Rebels in a college football upset this year. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-28-19 | Duke -14 v. Notre Dame | Top | 83-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
851 Duke at Notre Dame Irish have dropped four straight and 6 of 7 as it hosts the most talented team in the country. This is a terrible matchup for Notre Dame who attempts 44.4% of its shots behind the arc. Duke holds the opposition to just 28.9% accuracy from downtown. Duke on the other hand takes 16.6% of its attempts on dunks and 44.3% overall at the rim. Once again, bad matchup for the Irish. PLAY DUKE |
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01-27-19 | Iona v. Fairfield +1.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
842 Iona at Fairfield Terrible spot for the Gaels who were good to us last time out against Rider. Iona is only 1-7 straight up on the road this season and now has been installed as a slight favorite. Fairfield has lost four straight games, and are on the road for three more games after this one. This should be an all in game for the host. Fairfield is a terrible shooting team from the dead range at just 24.3% away from the rim and inside the arc. But the Gaels don’t force the opposition to shoot from that range. In fact, Fairfield is a better shooting team everywhere else. Because of the importance of getting this win we will back the host Stags. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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01-26-19 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. Long Beach State | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
753 Cal Santa Barbara at Long Beach State The Gauchos are 14-4 overall on the season, and have won by 56, 10, and 19 points after its first three losses. UCSB dropped an embarrassing 81-60 contest at Fullerton State last time out. Long Beach State has dropped two straight and has really struggled defensively as of late. In the past four games the 49ers have permitted 86, 92, 70 and 77 points. This team allows 37.5% of its shots at the rim. Opponents are making a whopping 62.4% from that short range. UCSB has feasted in that area with 63.2% field goals from around the rim. PLAY CAL SANTA BARBARA |
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01-26-19 | Charlotte +5 v. UTEP | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
751 Charlotte at UTEP Simply don’t trust this Miners squad laying points. This team has a severe lack of depth as seven players average at least 52% of the playing time minutes. This is also a team that take too many bad shots, as 37.2% of its offense comes from the dead zone. This team has also lost 6 of 7 straight up heading into this contest. The lone victory came by a single point. Charlotte is nothing to write home about, losing 12 of 15 overall. But this club has played better as of late with two wins in its last fiver games. Only one of those losses was by more than six points. Off a 45 point blowout loss to Texas San Antonio, no body wants these 49ers. That gives us great point spread value. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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01-26-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Florida International -4.5 | 89-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
716 Florida Atlantic at Florida International Quick rematch for the Owls who just lost to FIU 78-74 on Wednesday. That’s four straight losses for Florida Atlantic, a team that just doesn’t have the talent to take easy shots. Just 25.4% of its shots is in the paint, while 29.5% are from the dead, zone, long two pointers. FIU on the other hand leads the country with just 8.2% of its shots coming from outside the paint, and inside the arc. We much prefer the FIU game than that of its in-state opponent. And the line is very favorable. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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01-26-19 | Marshall +1 v. Southern Miss | Top | 51-101 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
687 Marshall at Southern Miss The Thundering Herd takes much better percentage shots than its opponent today. 10.9% ducks, 38.9% at the rim and 42.3% from downtown. The Golden Eagles by comparison shoot 36.5% from what I consider the dead zone, long two point tries. That provides a huge efficiency edge for Marshall who is off back to back road losses to Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss only has two wins over the Top 160 rated squads, and its most impressive win came in game two against SMU. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-26-19 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago -4 | 80-67 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
684 Oakland at Illinois Chicago The Golden Grizzlies attempt 45.8% of shots from downtown, but the team just doesn’t take the ball to the basket. That’s a tough combination when playing on the road. Oakland is 4-7 SU on the road but just two of those victories came by more than two points. Illinois Chicago was good to us Thursday against Detroit, and we have no problem riding the Flames once again. This team is 8-2 SU at home this year, and has excellent offensive efficiency. Shooting just 14.5% of its shots from outside the rim and inside the three point line. PLAY ILLINOIS CHICAGO |
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01-26-19 | Hofstra -9.5 v. Towson | 84-61 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
629 Hofstra at Towson Want no part of Towson here who can’t get to the rim and doesn’t shoot enough from long range. Just 1.5% of its shots are dunks, while attempting just 29.1% of shots from three point range. The Tigers are coming off back to back wins, but dropped six straight before that. This team is just 3-4 at home this season, dropping 3 of the last 4. Hofstra has won 15 straight games, including six straight away from home. PLAY HOFSTRA |
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01-26-19 | VMI v. The Citadel -8 | 82-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
768 VMI at The Citadel The Keydets allow 37.5% success behind the arc. That’s a tough way to make a living, especially on the road. With The Citadel taking a whopping 54.1% of its shot from downtown, this could really be problematic for the road team. The Citadel is very efficient offensively shooting just 12.9% of its shots between the rim and the three point line. It’s the worst efficient shot on the basketball court. VMI is 1-9 straight up on the road this season, mainly because its so hard to win away from home when the opposition kills you from behind the arc. PLAY THE CITADEL |
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01-25-19 | Buffalo -8 v. Kent State | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
853 Buffalo at Kent State Bulls coming in off a loss to Northern Illinois 77-75. Both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come on the road. While this team hasn’t looked quite as good since conference season started, there is now value on this clear MAC favorite. This team is fourth in the country in attempted shots from outside the paint and inside the arc, the lowest efficiency area on the court. Kent State is having a terrific season as well, but this is a step up game for the Golden Flashes. Kent’s adjusted defensive efficiency is the key here with a 106.0 as opposed to the Bulls defense of 95.2. Should be a good game to watch, but the Bulls have the much better talent. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-24-19 | Tulsa +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 64-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
623 Tulsa at Cincinnati The Golden Hurricane led the Bearcats by 6 points with just 1:16 left in the earlier meeting. Cincinnati stormed back and beat Tulsa 70-65 in overtime. Tulsa averages 40.7% of its shots in the paint vs the Bearcats 31.6%. What we really don’t like is that Cincinnati shoots way too many mid-range shots with 36.8% of its attempts coming outside the rim and inside the arc. Those shots are the lowest efficiency shots. Much prefer the visitor in a revenge setting. PLAY TULSA |
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01-22-19 | Blazers +5 v. Thunder | 114-123 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
531 Portland at Oklahoma City Third game in four nights for the host off a successful road trip. Portland has owned this series the last couple years and will enter this game confident. Short and sweet we expect this one to come down to the last shot. PLAY PORTLAND |
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01-21-19 | Virginia Tech +5 v. North Carolina | 82-103 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
855 Virginia Tech at North Carolina Huge pace dichotomy here as the Hokies are slow as possible and the Tar Heels want to run. Virginia Tech is excellent in the half court while North Carolina prefers easy baskets. The host doesn’t shoot a lot of threes and the visitor is very good at preventing points in the paint. The matchup favors the road dog here and the price is favorable. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
314 New England at Kansas City This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
312 LA Rams at New Orleans Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-19-19 | Celtics v. Hawks +8.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
578 Boston at Atlanta Third game in four games for the Celtics who played last night hosting Memphis. Atlanta on the other hand has been resting the past three days. Boston won both the earlier meetings by 18 and 21 points, so no urgency for the Celtics to run up the score here. The Hawks have played pretty good ball at home as of late with a 5-2 straight up record with wins over Oklahoma City and Denver. Nice spot and price for the home dog here. PLAY ATLANTA |