Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-19 | Bucks -6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
527 Milwaukee at Memphis Third game in four days for the Bucks, while Memphis is rested. This is a revenge game for Milwaukee after losing at home to the Grizzlies 116-113 in mid-November. But before you dismiss this as a nothing game for the Bucks, take a look at what Milwaukee has done after losing the previous meeting this year to an opponent. Lost to Boston on the first of November, beat the Celtics by 13 on the road. Lost to Portland November 6th, beat the Blazers by 43 at home two weeks later. Lost to New York the first of December, beat the Knicks by 14 and 16 in a home and home during Christmas time. Lost to Miami December 22nd, beat the Heat by 38 points last night. None of the Bucks starters played more than 27 minutes last night, as 13 players swat least 7 minutes of action. When Memphis beat the Bucks earlier, it was in the midst of a 7-1 Grizzlies winning streak. The current Memphis run is losses in 13 of 16 games. It’s payback time for the visitor. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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01-14-19 | Syracuse v. Duke -17 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
868 Syracuse at Duke The Orangemen have faltered when stepping up in class, playing a very weak overall schedule coming into league play. This is just the third true road game for Syracuse. We rate Duke three points better than any other team as of right now, and we catch them off a tooth and nail last minute come from behind victory over Florida State. That was the wakeup call the Blue Devils needed. The last time this team was in a battle was an 89-87 loss to Gonzaga, which was followed by a 21 point win over Indiana. We look for a big bounce back from the Blue Devils tonight. PLAY DUKE |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
302 Indianapolis at Kansas City Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback. Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-10-19 | Green Bay v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
614 Green Bay at Detroit Wrong team favored here as we find a Detroit team that’s in the top 10 in three point attempts, taking on an opponent ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Green Bay has a winning record but have played poorly on the road with just two wins against the 273rd and 295th ranked teams. Detroit should be favored here and the Titans will played the preferred slow tempo. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-09-19 | Magic v. Jazz -9 | 93-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
532 Orlando at Utah Third game in four days and fourth in six for the Magic who must play in altitude tonight. Tough spot for any team, especially an east coast squad playing all these games away from home. Utah returns home from a four game road trip themselves, losing to the two best teams in the east in the process. The Jazz have played by far the toughest schedule in the league so far, which will lighten up quickly with the Magic, Lakers, Bulls and Pistons on the radar. We look for the Jazz to catch fire the next week and finally blow out lesser competition. PLAY UTAH |
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01-08-19 | Akron -1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
607 Akron at Central Michigan The Zips have been a consistent frontrunner in MAC basketball for years now, making the postseason tournaments on a regular basis. This is the type of team we are looking to back in a near pick ‘em road contest. Central Michigan has an impressive record, but that has come against the 348th toughest schedule in the country. The Chips haven’t shown up very often when stepping up in class, and this will be a very tough spot for the host. With Central having what seems to be an impressive record, we are getting a great deal on the number here. PLAY AKRON |
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01-07-19 | Knicks +11.5 v. Blazers | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
589 New York at Portland Rested Knicks are about to play its opening game of a back to back situation, as the team travels to Oakland to face the Warriors tomorrow. Portland on the other hand is playing its third game in four nights, off a solid win over the red hot Rockets. Great scheduling spot here for the underdog who will go all out tonight, with less of a chance to win tomorrow against Golden State. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-06-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 77-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
824 Memphis at Houston The Tigers are one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball, which is great when playing at home in front of its home crowd. Pace doesn’t work so well on the road, especially when the more talented team is the host. Memphis has only played one true road game this season. Houston has the defense to dictate the pace and make the Tigers fight for points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
104 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-01-19 | Texas +11.5 v. Georgia | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
277 Texas & Georgia in New Orleans The Longhorns lost just two of its last 11 regular season games. The defeats coming to Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia by a single point. Texas also split against Oklahoma losing the conference championship. Tom Herman has been an excellent underdog regardless of where he has coached. Off his worst loss of the season we expect the best out of this Texas squad. Georgia is an elite team that deserved to be in the final four. It was even more pronounced after Notre Dame was pounded by Clemson. But the question to be asked is how is this team going to get up to play Texas here, after being so close to playing for the national title. This is the least important bowl game in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has the superior talent, but winning by this margin is very questionable. We know what we are going to get out of the Longhorns, not so much out of the Bulldogs. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
275 LSU & UCF in Glendale The Tigers were a bit overrated all season but still ended up cashing half its games. When breaking down how it did against elite opponents LSU went 1-3 SU with the only victory coming against Georgia in a game with a +4 turnover advantage. Losses to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M were understandable. Central Florida obviously played a much easier schedule, which is the main reason the winning streak is still intact. Last year the Knights beat fellow SEV squad Auburn in the Peach Bowl 34-27. But the Tigers chain they were disinterested in playing. The key to this game in Central’s ability to run the football against this very talented LSU front seven. We believe UCF can score enough in this game to take it to the wire. The loss of QB Milton hurts, but the backup has had plenty of reps in the last month. Too many points here for the Tigers to lay. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern +6.5 v. Utah | 31-20 | Win | 102 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
265 Northwestern & Utah in San Diego The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS the last decade in bowl games, winning 3 of the last 4 in straight up fashion. Pat Fitzgerald is an excellent coach who gets the best out of his players when not at a major talent disadvantage. Wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa, should prepare his team today. Kyle Whittingham is also a coach that deserves accolades. His only losses this year were to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, three teams that went bowling. But when looking at quality wins the best we can come up with are Stanford and BYU. We have these two clubs rated much closer than the current number, which is why we feel the victor gets the win by a field goal or less. Plenty of value on the Big 10 here. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Oregon | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
261 Michigan State & Oregon in Santa Clara Mark Dantonio is a coach we are looking to back this time of year. His teams are 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl season as of late, with the only loss coming at the hands of Nick Saban and Alabama. We have no problem fading a PAC12 team in this price range, as the conference as a whole has been a major disappointment. There is some excitement in Eugene with Justin Herbert returning behind center for another season, but he wasn’t overly impressive this year. Michigan State is the better coached team and gets the victory here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-30-18 | Browns +6.5 v. Ravens | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
315 Cleveland at Baltimore Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. While the Ravens need a victory to make the playoffs, the Browns have their own motivation. With a win Cleveland can end the season with a winning record, something that didn’t look possible under the previous coach. When looking at stats for the past six weeks it’s the Browns, not the Ravens who have been the slightly better team. This game should be decided by a field goal either way. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins +6 v. Bills | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Miami at Buffalo Money continues to pour in on the Bills, as many feel the warm blooded Dolphins will simply throw in the towel and not mentally show up in Buffalo. But keep in mind these are professionals and more importantly divisional rivals. This line has risen at least two points based on something that is based on hearsay. Let’s take a look at home the Dolphins have done going north the last two games of the season. Over the last decade Miami is 8-2 ATS traveling to a cold weather climate, 7-2 ATS when playing that game outside a dome. Buffalo has been better than many thought, but not to the extent of this number. The Bills may in fact win, but the cover is seriously in doubt. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars +7 v. Texans | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
313 Jacksonville at Houston Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. Jacksonville’s defense has been outstanding for most of the season. And now Bortles the much more mobile quarterback is back behind center. It’s clear that the Jags have had offensive line problems all season, with a mobile QB behind center Jacksonville should find yards earlier to come by. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
256 Notre Dame & Clemson at Arlington Just about everyone we respect in the gambling community rates Notre Dame outside of the top four by power ratings. Georgia would have been a ten point favorite over the Irish on a neutral field. So while Notre Dame went undefeated, keep in mind the only real team it beat was Michigan in the season opener. Clemson has the postseason pedigree that the Irish lack. The Tigers have played in the national semi-final each of the last three seasons. The defense could be the best in the nation even with the drug suspensions. In our eyes the starting quarterback is the most pro ready signal caller in the country, even without starting the season behind center. Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama are elite, Notre Dame is on another lower level. PLAY CLEMSON |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State +2 v. Nevada | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
245 Arkansas State & Nevada in Arizona Wrong team is favored in our eyes as the Red Wolves take much better care of the ball that the Wolf Pack. Arkansas State lost the turnover battle just twice all season. Arkansas State has posted eight straight winning seasons, with this being the eighth straight bowl game for the Red Wolves. The final four games of the season saw this squad allow just 54 combined points. Nevada lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 FBS games. Keep in mind this club won just three games last year and haven’t been to a bowl since 2015. Wrong team favored. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football. Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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12-25-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Jazz | 96-117 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
565 Portland at Utah Quick turnaround revenge for the Blazers here who just lost recently to the Jazz 120-90. That’s its only loss in the last five games. Utah is off its best week of the season sharing the ball with 65 combined assists the past two games, which may be the reason this line is inflated. We expect a lower scoring game with the Blazers taking this to the wire. PLAY PORTLAND |
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12-23-18 | Giants +10 v. Colts | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
111 NY Giants at Indianapolis The Giants have been one of the best road underdogs for years. Now with Indy fighting for the playoffs the line is inflated. Playing against teams that need to win is a great way to increase your bankroll near the end of the season. Nobody wants the Giants here, which is why the value is on the dog. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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12-23-18 | Packers v. Jets +3 | 44-38 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
118 Green Bay at New York Jets Rodgers is expected to play but it’s clear he’s not himself. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and yet the markets haven’t caught up to the 2018 Packers. The Jets have played much better as of late and are a dangerous home dog. We expect this line to go down towards game time. We expect the outright home dog winner. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-23-18 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
119 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
124 Baltimore at LA Chargers Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career. We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5.5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
224 Houston at Army The Cougars are without its excellent quarterback and one of the top picks in the upcoming draft in Ed Oliver. The word we are getting out of Texas is that this team is not overly excited to be playing in its own state. The Cougars also played in this bowl just four years ago. Army had an outstanding season when compared to preseason expectations. Military schools have been big money makers in bowl season historically. The line contunues to go up on this game and we want to get it before it hits the key numbers of 6 and 7. Even though we have Army winning by double digits, it's a better value now as opposed to what we will see at game time. PLAY ARMY |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -114 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host. The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher. PLAY MARSHALL |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 55 h 13 m | Show |
213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game. San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-17-18 | Rider +3 v. Washington State | 80-94 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
777 Rider at Washington State We feel the opener of Rider being the slight favorite was the correct line, as Washington State has played the easiest schedule in the country. This Cougar team ranks 256th in defensive efficiency, which is really bad when playing such poor opposition. Rider is by far the best team in its conference, and is thrilled to be taking on a PAC 12 team on the road. Both teams prefer the fast pace but Rider has the better overall talent. This team has already played at Central Florida and West Virginia, so it won’t be intimidated here. PLAY RIDER |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
332 New Orleans at Carolina Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense. New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets +7 | 29-22 | Push | 0 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
304 Houston at NY Jets The Texans have been overrated for most of the season as the advanced stats don’t agree with the game outcomes. We took advantage of that knowledge last week as we backed the Colts, and we will do so once again here. This team has big named players, but as a whole rates as an average NFL squad. The Jets aren’t world beaters but they are a team that knows it needs to, play its best ball to compete. With a touchdown home underdog that’s exactly what we are looking for. We will take the generous points in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-15-18 | Tulane -3 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 191 h 52 m | Show |
203 Tulane & Louisiana at Orlando Louisiana lost its conference championship to Appalachian State, and failed to make its preferred bowl in New Orleans. Louisiana had made that bowl game its own with it becoming a goal before the season. Now it must travel to Orlando, which isn’t a bad second choice. That said, the team wasn’t overly excited about it early on, which may give us a nice edge here. Keep in mind the Rain’ Cajuns have been bowling five of the last seven years. Tulane is a 6-6 team that hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013. This is a team that wants to end the season with a win and finish with a winning record. Teams entering bowls at 6-6 have been a very nice point spread play. In that last bowl game the Green Wave lost to this Louisiana team 24-21, so there is some revenge in mind. PLAY TULANE |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
301 Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Finally, finally get a quality game on the Thursday card. We’ve talked all season about home non-divisional teams having a huge advantage, but the media just looks at the overall numbers. The vast majority of home success comes from the two opponents not knowing each other well. That’s not the case with divisional rivals who play each other twice a year. While Andy Reid is clearly the better coach, having this game on Thursday actually hurts the Chiefs, as it cuts down on his ability to put in a full game plan. There is also the situation of Kansas City going to overtime Sunday, and playing on a short week. Without getting into specifics, it’s a really poor point spread proposition. We saw last week how a team without a passing game can beat these Chiefs, the Chargers have the ability to beat you through the air and on the ground. And we all know Los Angeles has the clearly better defense. Let’s get this one out now as we expect this line to move come game day. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
606 Colorado at New Mexico Great spot to take the Lobos is one of the strongest home courts in college basketball. It also helps that this team was beaten by a combined 60 points in its last two games. It’s also a huge game for the host as power five teams rarely travel to The Pit. If Manigault plays this line is an exceptional bargain, regardless we like the host. Colorado is 7-1 on the season, but six of those games came at home. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
107 Indianapolis at Houston While you rarely find point spread value on a team in a must win situation, the Colts have plenty of value here. While Houston stands at 9-3 on the season with a comfortable three game divisional lead, the Colts are 6-6 and sit right out of the wildcard playoff spot. The last time these two met the Colts had this game sandwiched between the champion Eagles and the former champion Patriots. That matchup with Houston was won by the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. But the Colts are playing much better ball since, and while the Texans have run off eight straight victories, the wins have not been impressive. The Texans so far this season have played just two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. The Patriots opening week and the Cowboys in game five. In fact, as of right now the Texans don’t play another team that is currently in the playoffs the rest of the year. The Colts are just as good as this Houston team but Indy hasn’t had the same type of luck. We prefer Frank Reich to Bill O’Brien anytime, and the Texans come into this game fat and happy. Great time to grab the Colts. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | 20-26 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 2 m | Show | |
109 Carolina at Cleveland Ron Rivera has taken over the defense and he’s always been very aggressive in his play calling. Therefore we expect a lot of blitzing from the Panthers, which should really give Baker Mayfield problems. The Browns rookie has been very comfortable when in a clean pocket, but his numbers have really gone down under pressure. The Panthers are in a must win situation here while the Browns continue to try to turn this franchise around. Cheap number on the visitor. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-08-18 | Wizards -6 v. Cavs | 101-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
707 Washington at Cleveland With or without John Wall, we like the Wizards here. Washington is playing excellent team ball right now which hasn’t been the case most of this year. The team is running and getting easy baskets, which should continue tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are short handed with the trade yesterday, and the team has a few key players who may not play tonight. It’s tough to keep up with a more talented team in the second of a back to back situation, it’s even worse playing short handed. Cleveland just doesn’t have the playmakers to get into a track meet here. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
502 Golden State at Cleveland Playoff revenge for the Cavaliers. Not really, as this just isn’t the same team as a year ago. But it would be a nice feather in the young Cavs hats if they could make this a game. And we believe they have that ability. Cleveland has gotten up to play certain teams this year, and the Warriors fit that scenario. Golden State continues to try to round into form as Curry has returned to the lineup. But this team continues to struggle with consistency. This line is based on past Warriors editions, and not the team on the court now. Even in better years Golden State has been poor in the role of large favorites against weak opposition. The Cavaliers are playing much better ball since the coaching change and veteran players have or will be traded. The young nucleus is gaining confidence and the wins are starting to show. Let’s take the young home squad to keep this one close. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
379 Washington at Philadelphia Redskins are getting healthier by the week while the Eagles continue to play short handed, especially in the defensive backfield. When looking at the year to date numbers it’s clear that this line is too high. If you would just look at these stats from a Team A and Team B standpoint, and disregarded the team names, the dog would be a clear play. With the Skins being overlooked we will gladly take the points with the nearly equal team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-03-18 | Thunder v. Pistons +2.5 | 110-83 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
502 Oklahoma City at Detroit Big step up in quality opponent here for the Thunder who are off Cleveland and Atlanta, easy wins by 17 and 24 points. While Oklahoma City is the better rested team, it’s hard to practice well off blowout wins. Detroit is playing well and staying well below the national radar. That gives us a nice value with the home dog against a former MVP and the household name of the Thunder. PLAY DETROIT |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
376 Minnesota at New England The Vikings are coming off its two most important games of the season against Chicago and Green Bay, with a Monday Night Football contest at Seattle on deck. This non-conference affair is the least important game on the remaining schedule. Rhodes was injured last time out and he’s the glue of this defense, he says he is going to play but the doctors aren’t in agreement. Even if he goes he will not be the same player as we have come to expect. New England is by far the best December team in the league. Year in and year out this team gets better as the season goes along. There is also a major positive trend of New England laying less than a touchdown at home. The Pats came off a bye last week to face the Jets, and have lowly Miami on deck. This is a great spot for the host. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
359 Cleveland at Houston Obviously the Browns have been a much better team after making the coaching changes. So you can dismiss most of the year to date stats. This is a team that has stockpiled high draft picks and is an up and coming team. Houston on the other hand is playing on a short week after a statement win over Tennessee on Monday Night Football. Not to mention the winning streak the Texans are on. With Indianapolis, the Jets on Sunday Night Football, and visiting the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on deck, this is a major flat spot in the schedule for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-02-18 | Bills +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
361 Buffalo at Miami The Bills have been considered the worst team in the league for much of this season. But now with a dual threat quarterback behind center this team is on the rise. After back to back victories over the Jets and Jags, this is a confident bunch. The defense is one of the best units in the league, and now doesn’t have to carry the weight of the offense. Miami won three straight games to start the season, but have dropped 6 of 8 since. One of those victories went to overtime and the other was a seven point home win over the Jets. Miami has a nice home advantage early in the season when the weather in southern Florida is hot and muggy, that’s not the case this time of year. Over the last five years Miami is just 4-10-1 ATS its last three home games of the season. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-01-18 | Akron v. South Carolina -29.5 | 3-28 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
332 Akron at South Carolina A disappointing season for the Zips comes to a close with an added game at South Carolina. Because of the opening game at Nebraska being cancelled the Zips needed to take this game to fill out the schedule. With a four win season Akron has no way of going to the postseason, so its hard to understand the emotion here with a four game losing streak on the line. South Carolina is off a loss to rival Clemson, but the Gamecocks actually played pretty well in covering that number. In fact, South Carolina has cashed three straight FBS games as of late. With the future looking brighter for the host we can really see this team motivated to end the season with a blowout victory. The offense has been rolling and the defense steps way down in class. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs +6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
702 Minnesota at Cleveland Third game in four days for the Timberwolves who are off back to back wins over Chicago and Brooklyn. After this contest the schedule toughens up with San Antonio, Boston and Houston, three really talented teams who have underperformed thus far. Minnesota is riding high after getting rid of its malcontent player, but we feel its a short success streak. Cleveland’s young players are starting to believe in themselves. Collin Sexton has been terrific since being inserted in the starting lineup, and looks like a value bet to win rookie of the year. Ever since LeBron James came to town this team has renewed confidence. Wins over two good teams in Philadelphia and Houston has this team playing much better than early in the year. We look for the outright upset here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-25-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -8.5 | 103-98 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
510 New York at Memphis Knicks coach David Fizdale returns to his old stomping grounds tonight as the Knicks visit the Grizzlies. He was unceremoniously fired a year ago as he and Marc Gasol simply couldn’t get along. New York just beat the Celtics and the Pelicans which keeps this line low. But this is a 6-14 team on the season and the schedule has been rough for the visitors as of late. This is the fourth game in six days for the visitor, all in different cities. In fact this is the 14th game in which New York has had to fly, playing its last back to back home games in October. Memphis had a nice winning streak snapped Friday in Las Angeles losing in overtime to the Clippers. We look for the Grizz to extend its seven game home winning streak in this series. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
182 Utah State at Boise State The Aggies have gotten a lot of well deserved publicity this season by blowing out lesser opponents. But in looking back at the schedule this club has only played two decent opponents, Michigan State and BYU. Each of those games were played while fully rested. The Spartans in the opening game and BYU off a bye. Coming off games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, this team isn’t prepared to step up to this level. Boise State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Boise State faced Troy, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Nevada, BYU and Fresno State this season. This club has been tested much more than the Aggies. We back the home favorite here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
714 Boston at Dallas Second game of a back to back for the Celtics who won in Atlanta last night. Boston has lost outright by 8 and 12 points in the other two back to back second games this month. If fact, Boston has played six games in five different cities including tonight over the last nine days. Dallas is well rested with the last two days off after knocking off Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Mavs have been home since Tuesday and don’t play again on the road until next Wednesday. Major scheduling advantage here for the host as the Celtics continue to be overrated in the early going. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-23-18 | Virginia -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
139 Virginia at Virginia Tech Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 34 m | Show | |
111 Colorado State at Air Force This is truly a rivalry game as neither team has enough wins to go bowling this year. The Rams defense was horrendous in the early part of the schedule, but since getting into conference play has been better. Last year the Rams were a 10 point favorite in this contest, that’s a 24 1/2 point change in line from two teams that aren’t good enough to go bowling. This is also a big drop in opponent strength after facing Utah State and Nevada the past two weeks. Air Force just doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this size. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies +3 v. Spurs | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
519 Memphis at San Antonio The Grizzlies have become a great defensive team, and in a league that has forgotten about that part of the game, playing Memphis is becoming a chore. Much like in college football, where you can ride a team that plays defense in an offensive conference. Teams are so used to playing a certain pace that if that pace changes the team is lost. And the best part is that those type of teams don’t get the national attention. Which leads us to a better line and more value. Let’s back that defensive team tonight as Memphis cashes easily. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -120 | 153 h 33 m | Show |
457 Minnesota at Chicago Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer. After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
470 Oakland at Arizona Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-17-18 | UAB +15.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
385 UAB at Texas A&M Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. PLAY UAB |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
327 Virginia at Georgia Tech Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the option offense, facing it the last two seasons against these Yellow Jackets, and for many years against Air Force when he was at BYU. This defense has held the opposition to only 38.3% successful plays this season. Only twice has a team put up more than 24 points against this defense. Georgia Tech has won three straight and comes into this game on a nice roll. But a closer look at the opposition shows all three opponents it beat have been disappointing this season. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami Florida have all failed to meet preseason expectations. We back the much better defense to easily cover this number. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Seattle Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
312 Tulane at Houston The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois. We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-12-18 | Pelicans v. Raptors -9 | 126-110 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
706 New Orleans at Toronto The Pelicans stand at 1-5 straight up on the road this year. New Orleans has been swept by the Raptors each of the last three seasons, only winning twice in 14 meetings overall. Toronto rested the starting five for the entire fourth quarter against the Knicks last time out. Let’s back the best team in the east to keep this early start to the season red hot. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
258 Washington at Tampa Bay This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-10-18 | Lakers v. Kings +6 | 101-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
720 Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Wrong team favored in our estimation. The Lakers are a poor 3 point shooting team that doesn’t play defense. We haven’t liked the personnel on this team from the get go. Too many personalities to work well with LeBron. The Kings are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing teams with a losing record. After years of futility Sacramento is building a pretty good basketball team. This club remains under the radar. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
139 Miami Florida at Georgia Tech The Hurricanes have lost three straight games heading into this contest, all as point spread favorites. So we are buying this Miami team at a season low, and this is the first time all season Miami has been installed as an underdog. Georgia Tech has been held below its season average each of the past five years against Miami. This is a team that dominates teams that don’t see the option on a regular basis. But Miami has the athletes to slow down this running game. Georgia Tech is on a high right now off back to back double digit victories. Buy low, sell high. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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11-10-18 | Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
151 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys have dropped 3 of 4 games as of late, losing as a favorite three times. But a win over Oklahoma would make the season for this team. Oklahoma State has dropped this in-state rivalry by double digits each of the past three seasons. But this line is simply too high. For Oklahoma the season comes down to the trip to West Virginia on the 23rd. There is no lookahead with Kansas on deck. That said, the Sooners haven’t played too many quality offenses until last week at Texas Tech. Despite the win Oklahoma permitted 46 points. We expect the Sooners to easily stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-10-18 | Kentucky -5 v. Tennessee | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
125 Kentucky at Tennessee Despite the loss last week the Wildcats still have a lot to play for. This should be its toughest test the remainder of the season with Middle Tennessee and Louisville to finish off the year. The Wildcats have played very well on the road with wins over Florida, Missouri and went to overtime at Texas A&M. Tennessee peaked a month ago with a 30-24 win at Auburn. But when looking at successful offensive plays Tennessee was at 32% while Auburn came in at 45%. The Volunteers have only outplayed one team all season in successful play percentage, and that was the pathetic UTEP Miners. Oh yeah, the Volunteers failed to cover that game by 9 1/2 points. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Penn State | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
179 Wisconsin at Penn State Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
111 Louisville at Syracuse Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 38 m | Show | |
106 Toledo at Northern Illinois The Rockets offense has shown itself the past two weeks with success rates of 54.1% against Ball State and 53.0% vs Western Michigan. But the previous week this offense was held to 24.0% against a good defense in Buffalo, and this Huskies stop unit resembles the Buffalo stop unit much better than the last two opponents. Northern Illinois was our pick for the conference title preseason, and now that conference action is in full swing we like the Huskies chances. This is a team that is undefeated in MAC play with the only losses coming at Iowa and Florida State, and hosting Utah. We get the much better stop unit at home laying a small number. Let the general public back the inconsistent high scoring team, we like MAC defense. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-05-18 | Raptors -2 v. Jazz | Top | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
513 Toronto at Utah While the Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back here, Utah is playing its third in four days and its fourth in six. We already know the Jazz best scorer Donovan Mitchell will be out, and it’s likely Leonard will be out for the Raptors. But as of now he hasn’t been ruled out completely. Toronto is playing terrific ball right now while the host is really struggling. With or without Leonard we will back the Raptors here, as Utah is really having defensive problems this season. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-04-18 | Packers +5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate. The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets -5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
514 Utah at Denver Very tough scheduling spot for the Jazz here who are playing it’s third game in four days and firth in eight. Coming in off back to back ten point or less losses, Utah may be a step or two slow tonight in the Denver altitude. After facing two of the worst teams in the NBA with Chicago and Cleveland, the Nuggets take on two of the best this week in Utah and Boston. Love the depth on this Denver team and it’s a big contributor to this contest. PLAY DENVER |
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11-03-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky +10 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
330 Georgia at Kentucky There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best. Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
400 Kansas State at TCU It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here. PLAY TCU |
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11-03-18 | Iowa State -15 v. Kansas | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
387 Iowa State at Kansas Willing to back one of the best young coaches in college football against the weakest team in the conference. The Cyclones have won three straight games and looked really good off its bye week with a 58-40 victory over Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has struggled a bit against excellent passing offenses but have dominated against pedestrian offensive squads. Allowing 13 to Iowa, 13 to Akron, 17 to TCU. The Cyclones also surprisingly held a very good West Virginia offense to just 14 points. Iowa State shut out the Jayhawks 45-0 a year ago. Kansas has played a very weak schedule thus far. The best three teams it played was Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 68 points. On the season this team is only producing 34.1% successful offensive plays. Iowa State is allowing just 38.2% successful offensive plays, and that is against a seven point tougher schedule than the Jayhawks. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-02-18 | Rockets v. Nets +4.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
704 Houston at Brooklyn You get two totally different takes on this game looking at the stats and looking at the name on the uniforms. Houston has established themselves as an elite team based on last year, while the Nets are more of an afterthought. But this isn’t the same teams as a year ago as the Rockets lost two major defensive staples in the offseason. And the league MVP Harden is out once again. This team is really having trouble getting anything done this season, both offensively and defensively. Brooklyn is better in all the metrics in this early season. And with both teams shooting a lot of shots from downtown, the projections are more varied. We will fade the big name team here until it learns to play with this new lineup. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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11-01-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -4 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
512 New Orleans at Portland Playoff revenge for the Blazers who were swept in the first round by the Pelicans. Damian Lillard pointed out that they have this game circled. New Orleans is playing its fifth game in seven days, after a run and gun effort at Golden State yesterday. Great spot for the host looking to settle a score. PLAY PORTLAND |
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11-01-18 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Akron | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
311 Northern Illinois at Akron Huskies have played a four point tougher schedule and still post better advantaged numbers than the Zips. Northern is also fresher playing its second game after a bye while Akron plays its fifth. Northern has a clear advantage defensively allowing just 34.1% success rate on the season. The Huskies are also better in the trenches when looking at the sack rate. Akron does have a pretty good defense allowing just 37.0% successful plays, but that offense is putrid at a 32.1% success rate. The Zips have really struggled to put points on the board against much worse stop units, can’t count on them here against the best defense it has played. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
261 Seattle at Detroit The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late. Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite. PLAY SEATTLE |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here. Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
135 Illinois at Maryland The last two weeks the Illini was a 10 1/2 point home underdog to Purdue, and a 24 point underdog at Wisconsin. If you switch the home field ratings for the Purdue game Illinois would have been at most 15 1/2. Now we find a Maryland team that is far worse laying an inflated number. By our stats Illinois has played a two point tougher schedule than the Terrapins, yet the successful play data only shows Maryland to be about eight points better on a neutral field. This is just too high of a line to not get involved. Maryland gave Rutgers just five points more on this field just two weeks ago. Say what you will about Lovie Smith’s team, it’s not comparable to Rutgers. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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10-27-18 | Cincinnati -8.5 v. SMU | 26-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
191 Cincinnati at SMU The Bearcats had its undefeated season end a week ago with an overtime loss to Temple. We were on the Owls in that game and felt we were lucky to get that victory. Even in a loss the Bearcats held a very good Temple team to only 26% successful offensive plays. In fact, on the season Cincinnati is allowing just 30.7% of offensive plays to be successful. While not playing a who’s who of explosive offenses, I don’t care who you played those defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the Bearcats take on another weak offensive team in SMU. The Mustangs have played a 13 point tougher schedule, but the offense still remains subpar. A 28.4% successful play rate on offense just doesn’t inspire much confidence no matter the opposition. We have no problem laying a small number on the road with the much superior stop unit of the Bearcats. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas +1.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 60 m | Show | |
194 Vanderbilt at Arkansas Third road game is four weeks for the Commodores who have a bye week on deck. This team just played the three physical defenses of Kentucky, Florida and Georgia. Now it’s installed as a road favorite at Arkansas. Keep in mind Vandy is 2-16 straight up on the SEC road. Arkansas has played a one point tougher schedule and the success rates are exactly the same. Arkansas has struggled against very good offenses like Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. That hasn’t been the case when stepping down in class. The wrong team is favored here as our number shows Arkansas by a field goal. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -8 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points. Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 52 m | Show |
106 Toledo at Western Michigan This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan. The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
513 Washington at Portland Winless Wizards go to Portland to take on the undefeated Blazers. This is the first game of a five game road trip for Washington. In will look to get out of town after one and four point losses to the Heat and Raptors. While the eastern conference is wide open this year, the Wizards have been an afterthought. But we like this team, especially in the backcourt, and this is really an all in game with Golden State on deck. Portland is ending a winning three game homestead tonight, so the urgency isn’t there with the Blazers, with a four game road trip on deck. Nice spot for the winless visitor and the line has value. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
470 New Orleans at Baltimore The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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10-20-18 | USC +7 v. Utah | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
405 USC at Utah Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad. Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY USC |
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10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
389 NC State at Clemson Yes this is a big step up in class for the Wolfpack, but the results the last two years show us NC State can make this a game. Back to back seven point losses including one in overtime have the Wolfpack entering this contest with great confidence. This club is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS vs FBS competition, and has an NFL ready quarterback. Clemson has what many feel is the best defensive line in college football. But State has only been sacked once all season. It has an 11-1 sack advantage while Clemson’s is 17-8. Two great lines do battle and NC State holds their own in the trenches. Both defenses are outstanding and we expect this to be a lower scoring contest. With points at a premium this line is way too high. PLAY NC STATE |
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10-20-18 | Virginia +7 v. Duke | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
321 Virginia at Duke Only road game in a six week span for the Cavaliers. Virginia has won the past three meetings in this series, with the spreads being 3 1/2 or less. Which is one of the reasons we are looking to take the higher number here with the visitor. The victory over Miami Florida last week wasn’t a fluke. Virginia was even in turnovers in that game, had the higher early down success rate, and the better offensive play success rate. Duke is a quality team but doesn’t deserve to be this high a favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Two of its wins this year came against option based teams. In the other two FBS wins the team took advantage of a combined +4 turnover margin. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-20-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
314 Cincinnati at Temple Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-20-18 | Buffalo -1 v. Toledo | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
339 Buffalo at Toledo We missed the best number on this one, but we still have plenty of value to fade what could be the most disappointing team in college football. Buffalo has a huge advantage at the point of attack. The Bulls have a 16-4 sack advantage, while Toledo is down 17-4. You likely won’t see a bigger discrepancy in any game this year. While the offenses are similarly productive, the Bulls only allow a 36.6% success rate on defense. The Bulls are 3-0 straight up on the road including a 36-29 win at Temple. These two programs are heading in opposite directions. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -10 v. UNLV | 41-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 35 m | Show | |
309 Air Force at UNLV Now that this line has dropped it’s time to step in with the Falcons. In last years meeting Air Force wore down the Rebels as the game progressed, outscoring UNLV 27-3 in the second half. We expect more of the same here. While the Flyboys offense isn’t quite as good as a season ago, we like what this defense has been doing. The last two games Air Force has held the opposition to 20 and 32% successful offensive plays. Overall 28 combined points allowed against Navy and San Diego State. The Rebels have now played two games without its starting quarterback. The Teams been outscored in that time 109-42. During that period the defense permitted 55 and 57% successful offensive plays. Just can’t trust this home club who hasn’t posted a winning season record at Sam Boys Stadium since 2013. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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10-17-18 | Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
911 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Miley & Kershaw Back to back games after a late night in Los Angeles from these teams yesterday. While the Dodgers clearly have the starting pitching edge, we like the situation for the Brewers. Nobody other than the two starters pitching in relief threw more than 20 pitches yesterday. So that means the excellent Brewers bullpen will all be available on Wednesday. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, the closer Kenley Jansen had to throw two innings and 34 pitches last night. The Dodgers hitters have really struggled to score in this series, and too many of the hitters have been all or nothing. That may work in Colorado in the summer, but in Los Angeles in the fall you have to be able to put the ball in play. Let’s take the 1 1/2 runs in this suspected low scoring affair. PLAY MILWAUKEE RUN LINE |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
276 Kansas City at New England The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season. I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 3 m | Show |
261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series. While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers. This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-13-18 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
124 Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina Terrible spot for the Warhawks who are playing its third straight road game, and fifth in the last six weeks. The last two games have been losses by 49 and 32 points, as ULM continues to have major defensive problems. On the season this team is allowing 56.6% of opponent offensive plays to be successful. Coastal Carolina is 2-2 SU & ATS on the season against FBS opposition. This is only the second FBS home game for the Chanticleers who beat UAB 47-24 earlier. Coastal is also off a bye week, so this team should be much fresher than its opposition. Let’s lay the short number here with the Chanticleers. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-13-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. South Carolina | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 48 m | Show | |
121 Texas A&M at South Carolina This Aggies team is much better than its 3-2 SU record in FBS games suggest. Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS despite losing the turnover battle by a combined six through five games. While this team is known for its offense the defense is allowing just 35.9% of plays to be successful. More impressive when you consider it has faced Clemson and Alabama, the two best teams in the country. South Carolina was expected to be very good this year, and are doing pretty well themselves. But our numbers show that defensively this team is virtually average, as opposed to the stout defense that many expected. Coming off a hard fought back and forth game against Missouri, will the Gamecocks have the defense to take down the Aggies? We think not. PLAY TEXAS A&M |