Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Tampa Bay Super Bowls are tough to handicap with the two weeks between games and all the hoopla. But we will do our best to try to provide youth a winner. In our opinion the side outcome is a tossup. Kansas City has the better offense, Tampa Bay the better defense. The only concern we have with the Chiefs is the weak offensive line. Because of that and the Buccaneers strong defensive run stoppage, we think we have some value in the total. Kansas City has an elite quarterback and terrific receivers. Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league, and he’s been money in the bank with extra time to prepare. Therefore we can expect the Chiefs to virtually abandon the running attack. That means short quick throws from the pocket for Kansas City. It’s the best way to take advantage of this Buccaneers defense. In turn, look for Tampa Bay to try to match the Chiefs on the scoreboard by doing much of the same. Unlike a regular season game where you may let up on a team in case you play them later, the pressure will be constant from the team in the lead. We are well aware that 6 of the 7 Super Bowl games with totals in the 50’s have gone under. But that only gives us additional value here. PLAY OVER L Bell under rushing yards Mahomes pass attempts over Second half more points than first No missed pat |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions OVER 54.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
151 Green Bay at Detroit Expect a shootout here between these two divisional rivals. Packers have scored 30 points or more in 9 of 12 games, only once have they scored less than 22. Green Bay ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 11th. The Packers are 25th in defensive red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 30th. Detroit tied a season high of 34 points last week after the head coach firing, the 460 yards was clearly a season high. Keep in mind Detroit was highly thought of in season win circles, the coaching change could bring that excitement back for the future. With neither team defending the pass well, this game should easily surpass this total. PLAY OVER |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
357 Indiana at Ohio State The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. PLAY OVER |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
321 Arizona at Seattle When breaking down these two teams by yards per play, we see just how dominant these two offenses are. Arizona ranks 1st in rushing yards per play at 5.28, and 7th in passing yards per play at 7.42. Seattle is 5th in passing yards per play at 7.80, and 6th in yards per rush at 4.87. In the NFL if you have a dual threat offense you can have much more success than only being good throwing or running the football. Defensively Arizona ranks 22nd defending the run, while Seattle is 28th vs the pass. So both teams have weaknesses that can be exploited. 71 points were scored in the first matchup. While second matchups typically are lower scoring, we simply can’t see how either of these two squads get stops. PLAY OVER |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills OVER 54.5 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
451 Seattle at Buffalo Wanted to wait for the latest weather reports before confirming this selection. Looks like 64 degrees and very light winds in Buffalo today. Seattle games are averaging 62 points so far this season, with every game reaching 53 or more points. The team is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and dominating through the air. Wilson is completing 71.5% of his passes, and nobody in the league throws the long ball better. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the defense has really struggled this season. The opposition is gaining 359 yards through the air on average. Josh Allen has shown the ability to go up and down the field against a defense of this caliber. Scoring 30 or more points against the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. The past three weeks have been lower scoring because of the weekly game plans. When you throw out the games against the limited offenses of the Jets and Patriots, the Bills have struggled. Buffalo has permitted 410 yards to Miami, 478 to the Rams, 383 to Vegas, 466 to the Chiefs. Tennessee was held to 334 yards but that added up to 42 points for the Titans. We view this as an up and down game with both teams having great success offensively. PLAY OVER |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
446 Army at Cincinnati The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground. PLAY UNDER |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 50 m | Show |
474 New England at Pittsburgh It’s clear how Bill Belichick wants to win with this team. Dominate defensively and play conservatively with the offense. That’s one reason why the Patriots are +17 in turnover margin. While many will look at how the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per carry defensively, keep in mind New England is happy to allow the opposition to run the ball because of having early leads. Baltimore runs the ball well but Lamar Jackson only has a 94.1 quarterback rating. New England hasn’t shown the passing attack to stretch the field against these Ravens. We look for a conservative game plan with this being a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 | 14-42 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
137 Florida International at Tulane The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019. PLAY OVER |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
307 Philadelphia at New Orleans The Eagles are a completely different offense under Foles, and the team has responded to his leadership for the second year in a row. The Saints can be beaten deep and Foles has the talent around him to exploit the Saints weakness. New Orleans on the other hand should have a field day against this banged up Philadelphia secondary. The way the Eagles play defense sets up great for this offense, just like it did in the earlier meeting. With this game being played indoors we look for a shootout. PLAY New Orleans |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
301 Indianapolis at Kansas City With the snow having an effect on the game casual bettors are playing the under. But that plays right into the hands of the offense as the receivers have a bigger advantage knowing where they are going. Wind not snow is a reason to play an under, and we already expected to see plenty of scoring in this game. Indy plays zone defense and the Chiefs are excellent in picking apart the zone. Kansas City is terrible against the run, which will open up the Colts passing game. We look for a shootout here and the number is even better with the weather. PLAY OVER |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
312 Tampa Bay at Baltimore The Buccaneers have moved the ball well all season but have turned the ball over more than anyone in the league. The positive news is that since the crab man has been reinserted into the lineup, the team has been more conservative. Baltimore doesn’t have a passing game with Jackson, and until the Ravens lose we won’t see Flacco in the starting role. This total is being based on how these teams played the majority of the season, not how they are playing now. We look for a more conservative game, with the defenses controlling play. PLAY UNDER |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
206 Arizona State & Fresno State in Las Vegas The Sun Devils have a long history off high scoring bowl games. In the last seven years we have seen 83, 85, 67, 60, 90 and 80 withpoints scored in the six times Arizona State has gone bowling. But this isn’t your typical Sun Devil team, and Fresno State is not your typical defensive opponent. The last three seasons this club permitted 32.8, 39.8 and 33.5 points per game. But this season the opposition has scored 35 or more just twice all year. Fresno State has held every opponent this season to 27 points or less. Last year the Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 points per game. This has been an elite defense under Jeff Tedford. Fresno held PAC 12 representative UCLA to just 14 points earlier this season, with a 34% offensive success rate. We look for a defensive battle here. PLAY UNDER |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
365 Denver at Cincinnati The Broncos should move the ball well against one of the worst defenses in the league. This is a team playing with confidence after facing the Steelers and Chargers coming out of the bye. With Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland on deck, this is a team that isn’t out of the playoff hunt. Very short total here considering the Bengals are finally healthy at the receiver spot. Word out of Cincinnati is that the players are excited to get a good look at Driscoll behind center. The talk in camp is that the team doesn’t expect and offensive drop-off. This line expects the Bengals to really struggle offensively, we disagree. PLAY OVER |
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12-01-18 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh UNDER 53 | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
320 Pittsburgh at Clemson The Panthers are a team that prefers to run the ball and play defense. It will be very difficult for this team to have success on the ground against this stout Clemson stop unit. But this Pitt defense could be good enough to keep this game close. The last four games this stop unit has been outstanding with 20.0, 35.3, 39.0 and 38.0% success rates. Sure this Clemson scoring unit is superior to Miami, Wake, VT and Virginia, but without the Panthers putting points on the board this total is way too high. PLAY UNDER |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
459 Philadelphia at New Orleans Now that Carson Wentz is getting healthier by the week, we look for this Eagles offense to get on a roll. The past five games Philadelphia has produced 55, 50, 52, 50 and 60% offensive success rates. The Eagles defense has suffered injuries especially in the defensive backfield, so this game should be a shootout. New Orleans has scored at least 40 points in all but one game this season. The last three games the offense has produced 69, 54 and 55% offensive play success rates. Also in that same time frame the Saints have permitted 23 combined explosive plays. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts OVER 50 | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show | |
461 Tennessee at Indianapolis Now that Marcus Mariota is finally healthy this Titans offense is starting to find success. Offensive success rates of 51, 52 and 54% the past three games. In that time period the Titans have produced 28 total explosive plays. Indy has consistently been one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Over the past four games the Colts have averaged 35.5 points per game. Other than the game where it allowed just 5 points to the lowly Bills, this defense has permitted 26, 28, 42, 38 and 37 points. This one should fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense. New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total. PLAY OVER |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here. PLAY UNDER |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -106 | 245 h 30 m | Show |
219 Virginia Tech at Florida State Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago. But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further. PLAY OVER |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron UNDER 52 | 34-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
302 Ohio U at Akron Huge game in the MAC tonight as a win for Ohio virtually clinches the division, but Akron will have a lot to say about it. History shows low scoring affairs. In fact, the same setup happened a year ago and these teams combined for only 12 points. The prior three seasons saw point totals of 26, 43 and 46 points. With the Zips offense struggling right now Akron will rely on a defense that has been solid all season when not outclassed as it was against Penn State, Iowa State and Toledo. We look for a tight low scoring game with this contest going under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
469 Kansas City at Dallas The Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in all but one game this season. This is a team that can attack in various ways and should find success against this Dallas defense. Dallas has scored 28 points or more now in five straight games. Elliott and company should have a field day running on this Chiefs defense which has struggled against the run all season. PLAY OVER |
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10-14-17 | Tulane v. Florida International OVER 51 | 10-23 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
145 Tulane at Florida International In games when Tulane is not facing fellow option teams the points have been plenty. 70 points vs Oklahoma and 90 last week against Tulsa. This total is much too low for an offense that is starting to hit its stride. Florida International looked good against Rice, holding the Owls to just 9 points. But other than that it has yielded 61 to UCF, 29 to Charlotte and 37 to Middle Tennessee State. This is the first option team these Panthers seniors have faced. Lots a points scored here. PLAY OVER |
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10-07-17 | Tulsa v. Tulane OVER 54.5 | 28-62 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
361 Tulsa at Tulane The last three years have seen point totals of 77, 79 and 79 points including overtime. While this isn’t the same Tulsa offense of the last two years, the Golden Hurricane can move the ball on the Green Wave. This is the third straight option attack Tulsa has faced. Which is normally a good thing. But when you haven’t proven the ability to stop it, it only gets worse for this defense. Playing the option and cut blocks is a physical way to play. Now this team has to go through it for the third straight week. Tulane is fresh and off a buy after facing the option of Army. While the offense has only scored 21, 14 and 21 the past three games, keep in mind the opposition. One game was against heavyweight Oklahoma, the other two against Army and Navy. When two option teams go head to the head the scoring is stifled. This total is just too low for clubs that should have distinct offensive advantages. PLAY OVER |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs OVER 55.5 | 19-14 | Loss | -103 | 43 h 23 m | Show | |
303 New England at Tampa Bay The Patriots have been involved in 41 explosive plays in only four games. Offensively 21 produced and defensively 19 allowed. Against good defensive teams such as Kansas City, Houston and Carolina, Patriots games produced 69, 69 and 63 points. Tampa Bay is coming off three games against good defensive squads in Chicago, Minnesota and the NY Giants. The Bucs should have a field day against this Pats defense, just like the struggling Panthers did on Sunday. With the short week and this being a non-conference game it will be tough for the defenses to game plan. PLAY OVER |
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10-01-17 | Rams v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
255 LA Rams at Dallas The Rams offense has produced 46, 20 and 41 points this season. The offense is balanced and Goff looks to be much better than a year ago. We have concerns about the Dallas defense and its best player Lee is a game time decision. The Cowboys are at its best when running the football. and Elliott and company should have a field day against this weak LA rush defense. PLAY OVER |
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10-01-17 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 41 | 31-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
263 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Bengals changed its OC before last week and had its best offensive game this season. With Cleveland missing at least three keys on defense this week we look for the Bengals to score at will. The Browns on the other hand are third in the league in offensive explosive plays, and this Cincinnati defense isn’t anything special. PLAY OVER |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 46.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
474 New Orleans at Carolina The Saints have combined to score 29 points against the Vikings and Patriots. It’s become clear that in order to keep the poor New Orleans defense off the field Sean Payton will need to run the football. Cam Newton is clearly not back healthy from his offseason surgery. The last thing Ron Rivera wants to do is put his franchise QB at risk by throwing the football. The Panthers have scored just 32 combined points against Buffalo and San Francisco. The Carolina defense on the other hand has permitted just 6 total points on the season. PLAY UNDER |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 39 h 53 m | Show |
477 Atlanta at Detroit Easy call here for the over. Atlanta averaged 33.8 points per game a year ago and have put up 57 combined points in its first two games. Detroit put up 35 and 24 against two pretty good stop units in the Cards and Giants. This will actually be the first decent offense the Lions have faced as both Arizona and New York have major offensive problems right now. PLAY OVER |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 52 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
474 Seattle at Green Bay With the total expected to be a shootout we will side with the under in this battle of elite NFC squads. When looking at key positional matchups the defenses have a solid advantage in this contest. And with the current line we are able to grab that key number of 51. The week one NFL lines have been out for some time, so most have been pounded into place. This is one that still provides solid betting value. PLAY UNDER |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 60 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
311 Green Bay at Atlanta Not impressed with either defense here, and with Atlanta having the fourth best first half offense in the history of the NFL, we expect the Packers to throw the ball a lot. Atlanta gets off to great starts and we expect the same here today at home. The Packers don’t have much of a running game and Rodgers has taken control of the offense with great success as of late. The line is high for a reason and the game is being played in a dome. Look for a shootout as these two easily surpass this high total. PLAY OVER |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | 18-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
305 Pittsburgh at Kansas City While the Pittsburgh defense has gotten better as the season has gone on, keep in mind the weak offensive teams the Steelers faced on its schedule. Just in division Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore struggled putting points on the board. Kansas City doesn’t throw the ball long but the receivers are able to turn short passes into large gains. The Chiefs have been among the leaders in explosive plays out of the passing game. With the total dropping on this contest we feel it’s time to jump on the over as we see both teams having success. Pittsburgh in the running game and the Chiefs through the air. PLAY OVER |
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11-15-16 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 55 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
302 Kent State at Bowling Green While the Mid-American Conference is thought of as a high scoring league we often find value on the under when these teams play in the national spotlight. Face it, the general sports bettor wants scoring and lots of it, which is why this MACtion games have been so successful for ESPN. Last week these two combined for 66 and 58 points so the first reaction would be for another high scoring MAC contest. But we only made this line 47.1 which gives us a full touchdown advantage on the under in this contest. Kent State is a very good defensive team in this conference, and the Falcons have gotten better on that side of the ball as the season has unfolded. Look for a lower scoring contest here. PLAY UNDER |
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11-12-16 | Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 79 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
200 Baylor at Oklahoma This Baylor offense is not even close to previous versions, scoring just 22 last week against a questionable TCU stop unit. The only times it reached 40 points was against SMU, Iowa State and Kansas. Only once in those three games did the Bears surpass 5.7 yards per play. Oklahoma has held 6 of 9 opponents to less than 5.3 yards per play. This defense has really tightened up since Texas Tech put up 59 points against them. With a very high total in an early start game we look for this contest to be lower scoring than projected. PLAY UNDER |
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11-11-16 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 47.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
117 Boston College at Florida State The better team usually dictates the pace and it’s clear who is considered the superior team here. While Boston College was excellent defensively the last two seasons the same cannot be said this year, especially when playing solid offensive teams. The Eagles permitted 49 to Virginia Tech, 56 to Clemson and 52 to Louisville. Tough to play under this number when facing another team who has had defensive problems all season. Florida State has held just one opponent under 19 points this year and that was Wake Forest in a 17-6 victory. This team has permitted 34, 63, 35, 37, 19, 37 and 20 points in every other game. We all know the Seminoles can put up points in a hurry, and we expect this to be a higher scoring game. In looking at explosive plays the Eagles produce 8.0 per contest while the Seminoles sit at 12.9 per game. That average of 10.45 is a full 2 explosive plays higher than any other game lined in the 40’s this week. That gives us a tremendous advantage against this current line. PLAY OVER |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 46 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 24 m | Show | |
253 Cleveland at Washington Nothing wrong with this Browns offense regardless of who is behind center. Against pretty good defenses in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Miami the Browns have produced 5.8, 6.6 and 5.8 yards per play. The problem has been a Browns defense which has yielded 29, 25 and 30 points the first three weeks. Like Cleveland the Washington offense remains fine with 7.0, 6.6 and 5.9 ypp in the first three games. The problems are a sieve of a defense permitting 38, 27 and 27 points. Right now this Cleveland offense is under the radar based on past history and the turnover at quarterback. We use that to our advantage in this likely high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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09-11-16 | Lions v. Colts OVER 50 | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
475 Detroit at Indianapolis Jim Bob Cooter. Not only do we love saying his name the Lions offense took off once he was able to take control after the bye week last season. The Lions averaged 26.1 ppg with Cooter and company calling the plays. With the loss of Calvin Johnson this offense is being dismissed. We feel there will be more value by spreading the ball around. The offensive line looks better but the defense still has concerns. Indy struggled in the preseason and everyone is worried about an offense that looks to be declining. We don’t buy it as the preseason has very little in common with the regular season. While the team did drop from 28.6 ppg to 20.8 keep in mind Luck only played in seven games. With both teams being domed squads and this being a non-conference affair, we look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
303 Louisville at Syracuse Last year the Cardinals allowed 28.8 ppg when playing away from home. Offensively the Cards are explosive with Lamar Jackson behind center. A dual threat QB with loads of talent. Before Dino Babers and his high octane offense moved to Syracuse, he was the head man at Bowling Green. He runs a fast paced offense with as many plays as possible. The faster the better. Before he came to BG the Falcons games averaged 53.7 ppg. In his two years at BG the Falcons games averaged 63.5 and 71.1. He wants to play the same way with the Orangemen. Last year Bowling Green at home had final scores of 72, 86, 69, 100 and 85. We expect this to be a fast paced shootout. PLAY OVER |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
314 Arizona at Carolina |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
326 Minnesota at Green BayThis game sets up as a low scoring divisional battle, with the winner clinching the division and the loser gaining the wild card. Therefore we expect both squads to play conservatively on offense as turnovers could play a major factor. Green Bay is sure to stack the box and limit the success of Peterson. But the Vikings haven’t shown the ability to throw the ball effectively. And they continue to hand the ball off in poor running situations.Green Bay will be hampered by a banged up offensive line which will put Rodgers in jeopardy. We expect Green Bay to feature the run which will keep pressure off the quarterback. Both these teams know each other very well, so its unlikely we see a margin on either side.PLAY UNDER |
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01-03-16 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 51 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
323 Philadelphia at NY Giants With the Eagles firing its coach and the future wide open, we expect to see an exciting brand of football on Sunday. Teams that are out of the playoff hunt have the tendency to play free and easy on offense. A time to pad the stats for the offseason. While its tough to get fired up defensively just playing out the string. The Giants have their own decisions to make regarding the coaching staff. So they too could create some offensive fireworks. Both teams have the talent to put up points, and the defenses haven’t exactly been trustworthy.PLAY OVER |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
317 Arizona at Philadelphia The Cardinals love to throw the ball deep and have a nice advantage here against a weak Eagles secondary. The Cards are a good offensive fit against this underperforming defense which has been on the field for more time per game than any other in the league.Bradford has been the only Philly signal caller with any success this season. He’s especially good against the blitz, something the Cardinals do more than just about anyone. Therefore we can see both sides moving the ball well here and putting up plenty of points. PLAY OVER |
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12-13-15 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 50 | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
105 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati We look for this one to be a shootout. It’s an extremely important game for the Steelers who lost to the Bengals in the earlier meeting this season. While Cincinnati is fighting it out with Denver and New England for playoff positioning, the Steelers need this game to increase wildcard chances. If you break down the games that Big Ben started and finished as opposed to games he didn’t its been night and day as far as the offense is concerned. In games he plays all the way through, the Steelers are twice as efficient offensively. While we can’t guarantee he won’t be hurt again this week, we expect his success to continue.Cincinnati has been terrific all season especially offensively. Andy Dalton could very well be the best QB in the league this season. A lot of that has to do with his excellent receiving corps, and lengthy time in the pocket. No lead is safe here as touchdowns will be plentiful.PLAY OVER |
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12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns OVER 41 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
111 San Francisco at ClevelandThe 49ers have played Arizona and traveled to Seattle and Chicago the past three weeks, three quality defensive teams. In those games Blane Gabbert is 65 for 102 for 778 yards with a 3 to 1 TD to INT Ratio. The 49ers are last in the league in scoring and yardage, but have improved under Gabbert and its gone unnoticed by the public.The Browns have permitted 37, 33, 30, 31 and 34 points in the last five games. The last four games have come against divisional rivals who know how to defend them. Non-Conference games are higher scoring that conference tilts, especially divisional games. Bad teams with nothing to play for play free and easy at the end of the season. We saw it last week with Jacksonville and Tennessee. We see it this week with the Niners and Browns.PLAY OVER |
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12-06-15 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 43 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
351 San Francisco at ChicagoThe 49er offense is much better under Blane Gabbert as he has moved the ball well against defenses much better than the one he faces here. The team should find the running lanes a little easier than the ones the team faced against the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two weeks. Chicago in kind will find some spots against a 49er defense that has really struggled on the road. Very surprised to see a total this low involving the Bears who don’t have a dominant defense.PLAY OVER |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
274 New England at Denver |
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11-29-15 | Steelers v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
271 Pittsburgh at Seattle |
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11-29-15 | Giants v. Redskins OVER 47 | 14-20 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
259 NY Giants at Washington |
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10-24-15 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 61.5 | 26-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
327 Indiana at Michigan State |
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10-24-15 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 | 17-41 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
324 Ohio U at Buffalo |
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10-22-15 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
307 Temple at East Carolina |
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10-03-15 | Houston v. Tulsa OVER 79.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 36 m | Show | |
149 Houston at Tulsa |
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09-26-15 | Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 59.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show | |
393 Oklahoma State at Texas |
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09-19-15 | SMU v. TCU OVER 66 | 37-56 | Win | 100 | 54 h 13 m | Show | |
187 SMU at TCU Over |
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09-05-15 | Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 65.5 | 38-34 | Loss | -106 | 136 h 32 m | Show | |
162 Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan The Monarchs will be playing more of a ball control offense this season after the graduation of the All-Conference Center and QB Taylor Heinicke who was a four year starter. Old Dominion will have a new quarterback who has never taken a snap at this level. In fact, the two players looking for snaps were a 2 star recruit by rivals and a non-recruit. The defense has given up more points per game than the prior season in four straight years but the team couldn’t get a set lineup last year because of injuries. So with more depth this season we expect the Monarchs to turn that around. Eastern Michigan’s defense improved by 4.3 points per game last year despite playing at Florida, at Michigan State and facing top tier offenses in the MAC away from Rynearson Stadium. This is a team with 8 defensive starters returning which is more than any season since 2009. Our contacts have been impressed by the strides this defense has made in the off-season and with the Monarchs breaking in a new signal caller we expect the Eagles to hold them in check. The last two years Eastern Michigan averaged 15.2 and 18.8 points per game. This is not a quality offense at this time despite the excitement of QB Reginald Bell. Just 5 returning starters and six straight years of averaging less than 22 points per game. The defense will keep the Eagles close but the offense may not have the talent to produce victories.PLAY UNDER |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 52 m | Show | |
316 Miami at New England |
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11-22-14 | New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 66.5 | 20-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
163 New Mexico at Colorado State |
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11-22-14 | Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 56.5 | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
134 Rutgers at Michigan State |
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11-21-14 | UTEP v. Rice OVER 51.5 | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
117 UTEP at Rice The Miners have moved the ball at will against the majority of opposition this year, putting up 26 points or better against all but one opponent. In fact, only two games all season stayed under the current line on this contest. In those two games the opposition was Southern Miss and UTSA, two of the weakest offensive units in college football. Rice has been able to put points on the board when not stepping up in class against the likes of Marshall, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. In games against similar talented defenses as UTEP only once all season have the Owls not reached 28 points in a contest. The last five meetings in this series has resulted in point totals of 52, 57, 78, 68 and 59 points. In our opinion this number is cheap.PLAY OVER |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 43 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
356 Utah at Stanford |
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11-15-14 | Temple v. Penn State UNDER 39 | 13-30 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
324 Temple at Penn State |
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11-14-14 | Tulsa v. Central Florida OVER 55 | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
317 Tulsa at Central Florida We believe too much emphasis on this total is attributed to early season Central Florida opposition. The Knights started the year against Penn State, Missouri, Houston and BYU. All teams that play pretty good defense. That has contributed majorly to the poor Central Florida offensive numbers. Since that time we have seen total points scored of 33, 48 and 66 against questionable offensive teams of Connecticut, Tulane and Temple. Now we get the best of both worlds with a weak Tulsa defense but an offense that can put up some points.In Tulsa’s two games against very good defenses 59 and 60 points were scored. But here is the real kicker. Against bad offensive teams Tulsa games have ended up with 69, 71, 59, 68 and 66 points. So even poor offensive teams can have success against this Golden Hurricane stop unit. This is a stand alone game on Friday night so you know the total is going to rise. Let’s get this one out now as obviously the Florida weather won’t be a factor.PLAY OVER |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 68 | Top | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
311 East Carolina at Cincinnati |
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11-11-14 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois OVER 58.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
303 Toledo at Northern Illinois Huge game in the division as Toledo stands 5-0 and the surging Huskies 4-1. While Northern Illinois has had great success in this conference over the last few years and Toledo has taken money virtually every week, we will look in another direction with our selection. Both teams have dynamic offenses with both able to wear out a defense with its ground game. Neither stop unit has been overly impressive this season and can be exploited. While we normally look for a conservative game plan in such a key matchup, we feel both coaches know the best way to success is relying on strong offenses. We expect this one to be a shootout.PLAY OVER |
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11-08-14 | Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 68 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
159 Texas A&M at Auburn |
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11-07-14 | Memphis v. Temple UNDER 52.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
114 Memphis at Temple |
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10-25-14 | Memphis v. SMU UNDER 49.5 | 48-10 | Loss | -102 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
162 Memphis at SMUThe Tigers just finished its toughest part of the schedule and now finishes the year with a bunch of weak opponents. After facing SMU the Tigers tangle with the likes of Tulsa, Temple, Tulane, South Florida and Connecticut. At 3-3 on the season Memphis is virtually assured of making a bowl game. Which makes us leery of the Tigers running up the score here. This club knows running between the tackles will but points on the board and in doing so the clock keeps running. Why put Paxton Lynch in jeopardy? SMU on the other hand has scored six points or less in all but one game this season. With a bye on deck the very thin Mustangs will likely want this one to end as soon as possible to get to the week off and recuperate. SMU has been pounded by pass first mentality teams all year and the Tigers rush the ball on average 48 times per game. Look for the Tigers to have a real shot at a shootout here which gives us a comfortable play on the under.PLAY UNDER |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49 | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
108 Miami Florida at Virginia Tech Huge game in ACC Coastal action as both squads sit at 1-2 at the moment. That likely means a more conservative game plan from both squads. Virginia Tech hasn’t lived up to offensive promise this year after Michael Brewer looked like an upgrade at the quarterback position. Defensively the Hokies are stout holding talented offenses like East Carolina and North Carolina to 28 and 17 points. Only East Carolina and Georgia Tech have managed more than 21 against Virginia Tech and we doubt a freshman signal caller will have great success in this one. Miami has padded their offensive stats against bad defensive teams such as Florida A&M, Arkansas State and Cincinnati. The best defense they faced this season was Louisville and the Hurricanes only managed 13 points in that contest. We expect a low scoring affair with the loser likely out of the divisional race.PLAY UNDER |
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09-20-14 | Northern Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 65 | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
381 Northern Illinois at Arkansas The Huskies have won 17 straight on the road including a ten point victory last week in Las Vegas. Now this club faces a major defensive challenge against a huge Arkansas offensive line. MAC teams as a whole are smaller in the trenches and the Razorbacks are bigger than the majority of NFL offensive lines. That means plenty of running plays for the hogs against what will be a tired Northern Illinois defense in the second half. That could be especially true after playing in the desert heat last Saturday.While the defense is sure to struggle the Huskies can put points on the board. This is a talented offense that likes to get up and down the field as fast as possible. With a winning pedigree you know there will be a never say die attitude with the Huskies.PLAY OVER |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 46 | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
461 Green Bay at Seattle |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia UNDER 57.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 382 h 35 m | Show | |
182 Clemson at Georgia Not only do the Tigers have to replace thousand yard rusher McDowell, star QB Boyd and extremely talented receivers Watkins and Bryant, they also must replace All-Time scorer Calanzaro at kicker. The defense has 7 returning starters from a team that was excellent at penetration of the line. Georgia also enters the season without amazing signal caller Murray while 7 defensive starters return. After the stop unit regressed by close to 10 points per game a year ago we expect Georgia to be dominant at times on that side of the ball. Last year these two combined for 73 points and the casual fan will look to play this game over. But history shows starting the year with two new signal callers points to low scoring games. Throw in the fact that the defenses are extremely talented and we look for a very conservative game plan from the coaches.PLAY UNDER |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 131 h 8 m | Show |
143 Rutgers at Washington State The Scarlet Knights put up 26.5 ppg a season ago and bring back 9 starters including improving quarterback Gary Nova. Rutgers has a quality offensive line which will give him time to find open receivers against a questionable Cougar stop unit.Washington State put up 31 ppg a year ago while allowing 32.5. The Cougars return 8 starters to an offense that brings back the outstanding Connor Halliday behind center. Washington State is deep and talented at the receiver spots and they have impact freshmen on the offensive side of the ball. With Rutgers have major problems in the defensive secondary the Cougars should be in for a big day offensively.PLAY OVER |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 38.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 0 m | Show | |
303 San Francisco at Seattle
The first two times these clubs met the scoring was very low at 32 and 36 points. But those games were played in the regular season when teams with a lead tend to sit on that lead by running the football and taking time off the clock. We don |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Indianapolis
These two teams played just a few weeks ago and the Colts won 23-7 in Kansas City. But Kansas City didn |
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12-29-13 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 51 | 13-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
319 Detroit at Minnesota
Both teams will be missing their best offensive weapon here as the Lions will be without Megatron and the Vikings will be missing Adrian Peterson. So why then are we playing this game over? This is a game being played inside in December with two quality scoring units. It |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
201 New Mexico Bowl Colorado St. v. Washington St.
The Rams have a 1.2 yards per play advantage but they have played a much easier slate of opponents. Colorado State permits 63.3% completions and they are facing off against a Cougars team that passes 77% of the time. The Rams victories this year have come against Cal Poly, UTEP, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico and Air Force. None of those teams are going bowling this year. Washington State beat both USC and Arizona on the road, who are both playing in the post season. They also lost at Auburn by just 7 points. In fact, Washington State has played much better ball outside of Pullman. The Cougars haven |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 47.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
159 Dallas at Chicago
A lot of money came in on the unders yesterday based on the cold weather forecasts along with snow flurries. While the weather obviously played a major part in Philadelphia with the snow accumulation, overall it wasn |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 54.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
144 Detroit at Philadelphia
The Eagles offensive strength this season has been the running game, but that |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 49 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
427 Denver at Kansas City
If you watched the first match-up it was clear that the Broncos were putting in an extra blocker to keep the pressure off Manning who was playing with an injured ankle. They relied on the running game to go along with the short passing attack. But now that Manning has had more time to rest and RB Marino is slightly banged up we expect the offense to open up a bit this week. The Chiefs haven |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
305 Oakland at Dallas
This line has risen a bit from the opener but we expect it to rise even further once the game day bettors get involved. Oakland struggled for the most part offensively early in the season but because of injuries the Raiders had to make a quarterback change. Since that time McGloin and company have been pretty consistent moving the football. Point totals of 28, 20, 20 and 21 the last four games and that was against better defensive teams than what they will face on Thursday. When looking at yards per play for the entire season 3 of the 4 categories offensively and defensively between these two clubs far exceed the league average. If you break down the Oakland offense the last three weeks they too exceed league average. So even though the sample size is lower in this instance the QB change has increased offensive performance, therefore we feel those short term numbers are more predictive. Oakland has had trouble keeping the quarterback upright most of the season, allowing an 11% sack rate. But the last three games have seen a huge drop off to 3% sacks, as the blocking has really improved with a pocket passer. Dallas can move the ball on anyone and the defense is playing without key components. Even when healthy the Cowboy stop unit had many questions. On a short week of preparation we give the edge to the offenses who don |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo OVER 72 | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
105 Northern Illinois at Toledo
The MAC West all comes down to this. If Northern Illinois wins they play in the MAC Championship, if Toledo wins here and next week against Akron they are in. Both teams own outstanding rushing games which average 6.3 yards per carry. David Fluellen for Toledo, a solid runner will be a game time decision. He has been in and out of the lineup lately, but the Rockets are strong in the run game with or without him. The weather calls for a possibility of rain, but that shouldn |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 42.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
219 Carolina at San Francisco
Dating back to last year the Carolina Panthers have scored 21 points or more on the road in 10 of their last 11 games away from Bank of America Stadium. Ever since the coaching staff took the reigns off Cam Newton this offense has exploded. The last four games the Panthers have produced 34, 31, 30 and 35 points. This offense is fully capable of moving the ball on San Francisco and doing so with relative ease. With San Francisco and New England on deck it |
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11-08-13 | Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 59 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
118 Air Force at New Mexico
This is an interesting handicap when it comes to the total. Both teams run forms of the option, which is what each squad sees in practice all season long. Therefore the defenses have an advantage. Both teams have struggled defending the pass, but neither team throws the ball very often. Therefore the defenses have the advantage. Both points involve sound reasoning. So why are we projecting a high scoring game? Because both of these defenses are terrible and both offenses can run the football. The FBS average is 4.3 yards per carry. Air Force runs for 4.9 ypc and allows 4.8. New Mexico on the other hand produces a whopping 6.3 ypc and allows the same 6.3 ypc. You don |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Dallas at Detroit
Tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys off televised affair with Denver, followed by important divisional games with Washington and Philadelphia. Dallas is now set up in good position to win this division as the offense has been outstanding. But we do have serious concerns about this defense who will be missing two key components on Sunday. This is a team allowing 5.7 yards per play while producing 5.8 ypp themselves, this against a pretty solid slate of opposition. They should have little problem moving the football against a Detroit defense that has yielded a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The league average in that regard is 5.4. The Lions permit 5.1 yards per carry so even a banged up Cowboy running game should have success. Offensively Detroit is dangerous, especially playing at home. Detroit has a bye week on deck and this game means much more to them than the Cowboys. That said Dallas is the better team but the spot screams Detroit. Rather than get too involved with the side here we will look for a shoot em out offensive affair, as we feel neither team will have much success stopping the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State UNDER 57 | 49-51 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
108 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd came into the season with high offensive expectations. With NFL QB prospect Rakeem Cato at the helm and coming off a season where Marshall averaged 40.9 points per game, the sky was the limit for this offense. After averaging just 21.8 ppg in 2011 this scoring unit was due for regression and that's exactly what has happened to Doc Holliday's club. After starting the season strong against the likes of Miami Ohio and Gardner-Webb this team hasn't been nearly as dynamic offensively. On the season Marshall is averaging just 5.3 yards per play which is less that the FBS average of 5.6. That despite playing a very weak schedule. With Middle Tennessee currently sitting at the league average in yards per play against we can't see this Thundering Herd offense breaking out on Thursday. Marshall is averaging an FBS average of .39 points per play and that has again been vs weak opposition. Defensively Marshall has been extremely good over the course of the season. Allowing 4.5 ypp and .30 points per play. They should have little problem containing a Blue Raider offense that has been terrible all season. Rick Stockstill has done an excellent job since coming to Murfreesboro in 2006. He took his team to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2010 and is coming off a solid 8-4 season. But this years club pales in comparison, especially on the offensive side of the football. This club is averaging just 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The passing game is at 8.8 yards per completion which is well below the FBS average of 12.1. This team can't extend the field offensively and they don't have the ability to come from behind. Defensively the Blue Raiders are grading out as an FBS average stop unit, but they have played a tougher schedule than today's opponent. Coming off back to back games against East Carolina and North Texas this stop unit won't be overwhelmed against this Marshall offense. With the two best units on the field likely being the defenses and with Middle Tennessee State having a hell of a time moving the football, points will surely be at a premium in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-06-13 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers OVER 53 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
Detroit at Green Bay
The Lions are averaging 30.5 points per game and it should be much higher. In watching this team we continue to see missed opportunities on the offensive end turning likely touchdowns into field goal attempts. Even though last weeks game against the Bears surpassed the posted total, it should have done so much quicker. This is a team averaging and allowing over 400 yards per contest. Considering they faced the struggling offenses of Minnesota, Arizona and Washington is especially telling. We saw how easily Jay Cutler moved the ball on them last week early on when the contest was still in question, that's likely to be the case here against the explosive Packers. The league average in points per play is .35. Green Bay and Detroit both average .40 both offensively and defensively. Green Bay is running the ball very well this year which was its problem in the past. The Pack should have great success on the ground against this very giving Detroit stop unit. Green Bay is off a heartbreaking loss and with a bye week they had another full week to stew. The Packers had that game against Cincinnati in the bag and then rested on their laurels, that's not going to be the case here. If Green Bay has the lead they will continue to pour it on, and considering Detroit hasn't won here in eons, that's likely to be the case. PLAY OVER |
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09-22-13 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
Buffalo v NY Jets
Former Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine is now at Buffalo and he is very familiar with this New York offensive personnel. Bills Head Coach Marrone completely shut down Geno Smith in two games as the coach at Syracuse. He did so by blitzing often and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bills are only 2-13 SU on the road and despite the late game heroics against Carolina we don't trust a rookie QB to win away from home. The Jets have extra prep time after facing New England on Thursday and they have fared well as of late against the Bills. NY is allowing only 59.5 yards on the ground which puts the pressure on a rookie signal caller to make plays. Neither team has shown much of a passing game so we expect this contest to be played very close to the vest. PLAY UNDER |
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09-22-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 48.5 | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Green Bay v Cincinnati
Key Packers running back Lacy was injured last week which points to more of an emphasis in the passing game for the Packers. They have plenty of weapons to exploit a Cincinnati defense that rarely plays this talented a unit in the AFC Central. Green Bay is outperforming league average offenses by over 10 points and 125 yards per game. They sit at a whopping 7.5 yards per play, doing so against San Francisco and Washington, two playoff teams from a year ago. The Bengals have faced better defenses than what they will see on Sunday, as Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland are a step above the Packers defensively right now. Although this Green Bay stop unit is better than a year ago and could be pretty formidable by the end of the season. Cincinnati is in a divisional sandwich game with Pittsburgh Monday night and Cleveland on deck. Don't know how much quality preparation they can do against this Packer offense on a short week. PLAY OVER |
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09-12-13 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 44 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show | |
NY Jets v New England
One of our favorite early week trends takes place when the Jets and Patriots tangle on Thursday. When the home team is favored on Thursdays the game has gone under 51 of 81 occurrences. It's even better when the home team is a big favorite. It makes a great deal of sense to us as the teams have less time to put in a game plan on the short week, even more of a hinderance to the road team who must travel. In fact, Tom Brady said that they wouldn't be spending a great deal of time game planning offensively because of the short turnaround. These two teams know each other very well and with the projected inefficiencies of the Jets offense along with a battered and bruised New England scoring unit, we can see this game staying under the posted total. New England's offense isn't the same this year with a questionable receiving corps, and now three key skill position players will likely miss this game. We expect this line to continue to drop so lock in the current number as soon as possible. PLAY UNDER |
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09-07-13 | Florida v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 48 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
306 Florida v Miami Fl Under
The last 10 times the Gators faced a quality opponent 7 times the game ended with less points than the current total of this contest. The Florida offense returns 6 starters from a team that only scored 26.5 ppg a year ago. QB Driskel plays pretty well in this system but he's not known as a player who can beat you with his talent. The defense for the Gators is the reason for this play. Florida allowed 14.5 ppg a year ago and despite just 4 returning starters we look for another big season from this stop unit. Florida held down a very good offense vs Toledo last week which is hard to do regardless of who the Rockets play. Toledo had gone 36 straight games without being held to single digits and they managed just 6 against the Gators last week. Miami brings back a whopping 18 starters this year and many feel this will be the breakout year for Al Golden. While we do believe the defense will be much improved we still have serious concerns about this offense, especially when taking on quality stop units. We are not a believer in QB Stephen Morris who only managed to complete 58.2% of his passes last year. When stepping up against good defenses last season the Hurricanes were held to 13 against Kansas State, 3 vs Notre Dame and 14 against North Carolina, while they managed 20 vs Florida State. Despite the high number of returning starters on offense we don't see that trend changing. PLAY UNDER |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots OVER 51 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
303 Baltimore at New England
Only 3 times in 26 games have the Ravens lost on the road by double digits. This is a team that matches up pretty well offensively against this New England stop unit. The last four regular season meetings have been decided by 1, 3, 6 and 3 points. Last years playoff game was a 1 point differential. Baltimore didn't face too many quality offenses but when it did the games were high scoring. New England totaled 61 in the first meeting, Houston totaled 56, Washington finished at 59, Denver was 51, the NY Giants totaled 47 and last weeks game against Denver was another shootout. Baltimore played the fourth longest game in NFL history last week which favors the Patriots. New England like Denver will use a hurry up offense to keep Baltimore from making changes defensively. The Ravens have suffered through defensive injuries right now and the Patriots are smart enough to limit changes as they look to wear out this aging stop unit. PLAY OVER Opinion New England Team Points Over |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 49.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
302 San Francisco at Atlanta
The 49ers must travel cross country off a dominating win, especially offensively as the team had a breakout performance. But in eight road games this season the 49ers never surpassed 383 total yards of offense. This is a team that performed far better offensively at home than on the road. Atlanta is 33-7 SU the last five seasons at home (Includes lay down game against Tampa in the season finale). Only 3 of those 40 games the Falcons lost by more than 4 points. The coaching staff has already said it is going to a zone defense to keep Kapernick from going crazy running the football. The 49er defense is the best unit on the field and defense travels better than offense. Therefore we expect San Francisco to keep this Atlanta team in check. Based on last week this total is very much inflated. San Francisco didn't play a game with this high a total all season. Atlanta did play games with high totals but opponents in those games all had severe defensive questions: Washington, Oakland, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. PLAY UNDER Opinion Atlanta +3 1st Half |