Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-10-19 | Marlins +133 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
955 Miami at Cincinnati Richards & Mahle The Reds bats finally broke out yesterday in a 14-0 pasting of the Marlins. So now all is right in Cincinnati. Not so fast as one game does not correct this season long problem. Sure the Reds do own a 16% offensive edge in this game, but the Marlins didn’t use any of its key relievers in that blood bath. While Cincinnati has that offensive advantage, all other numbers point to the underdog Marlins. Especially with a 10% starting pitcher edge as we rate Tyler Mahle 14% below league average. Plenty of value on Miami to bounce back from the embarrassing loss. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-09-19 | Mariners v. Royals +101 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at Kansas City Gonzales & Junis Don’t look now but the Seattle Mariners have the best record in the Major Leagues. Actually, maybe you should look now because this team is about to take a major fall in the standings. Despite the hot start we aren’t buying the Mariners. Along with the New York Mets, they have yet to play a team with a winning record. Our numbers which do take in the small sample size of this season, show the only Seattle advantage in this contest being offense. The Royals are the much better defensive team, and we give Jake Junis a 6% advantage in starters. Before the season Kansas City would have likely been a -125 favorite here. You just can’t adjust your line over 30 cents based on an 8% of the season sample size. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-09-19 | Rays -157 v. White Sox | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
915 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox Morton & Santana First game off the DL for veteran Ervin Santana. He’s had a long and sometimes stellar career, but not much is expected out of him at this point. In fact, we rate the veteran righty 20% below league average. In this contest the red hot Rays own advantages across the board, and our number has them graded closer to a 2 to 1 favorite to win this game. Nice value on the much better team with a major starting pitcher edge. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-19 | Brewers v. Angels -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
970 Milwaukee at LA Angels Chacin & Cahill Getting this one up early as we expect the Angels to be a solid favorite by game time. Josh Hader has to throw 36 pitches yesterday to close out the Cubs, so the outstanding closer will not be available for the Brewers here. Milwaukee also has a long travel day while the Angels have been home. Los Angeles finally broke out offensively the last couple games and our numbers have LA 10% better offensively. We also rate Cahill 12% better than Chacin, who continues to have success via smoke and mirrors. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-08-19 | Rays -153 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
961 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox Snell & Rodon Nice value on the red hot Rays who send the Cy Young winner to the mound on Monday. Tampa has a huge 33% starting pitcher edge in this one. In fact, Tampa owns advantages across the board. While this line has been bet up slightly overnight, it’s still showing 17 cents of value on the visitor. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-07-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +103 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
930 Boston at Arizona Velazquez & Kelly When looking at runs scored and runs against, the Red Sox are by far the worst team in the league. And it’s not like they have been playing elite teams to start the season. Oakland was expected to be a playoff contender, but Seattle and Arizona were teams that were bet against in season wins circles. Sure the Red Sox have played every game on the road so far, but this is the defending World Series Champions. The wrong team is favored in this one as we much prefer the Diamondbacks on the mound. Velazquez is 20% worse than an average major league pitcher. Which tells you all you need to know about what the Red Sox have in the high minor leagues. The bullpen edge is all Arizona in this one, despite the Diamondbacks using key relievers yesterday. The Sox terrible start continues on Sunday. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-07-19 | Padres +115 v. Cardinals | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
909 San Diego at St Louis Strahm & Wainwright Wrong team favored here by our numbers, as the only advantage the Cards have in this game is a 13% offensive edge. Wainwright was a dominant pitcher in his prime but after multiple injuries and procedures we rate him below league average. Matt Strahm on the other hand is a player we have really liked for a long time. And now he’s finally being recognized in the baseball community. With Andrew Miller blowing up badly last night, this Cardinal bullpen cannot be trusted. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers -125 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
958 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee We couldn’t understand the move on the Cubs yesterday, which scared us off another winner as we had the Brewers showing value. The same thing happened on the overnights as Chicago took money again. But now the Brewers money has shown which backs up our projected line of -150 here. That leaves us with plenty of value on what is clearly the better team at this stage of the season. And best of all Milwaukee rested its dominating bullpen piece in Josh Hader. Chicago on the other hand blew out Brach, Edwards, Cishek and Kintzler yesterday. All throwing 16 pitches or more. Our numbers show the host having edges across the board and we are a big fan of Corbin Burnes, who could turn into the ace of this staff. Lay the cheap number on the Brewers. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-06-19 | Royals v. Tigers -125 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
964 Kansas City at Detroit Lopez & Moore The Royals struggle against lefty starters hitting 6% worse than league average. While Kansas City is the better defensive squad by 3%, all the other numbers point towards the home team. While we aren’t fond of either starter, we do rate Moore 12% better than Lopez. In fact, Lopez is rated 24% worse than league average. The number has been bet up a bit, but not nearly high enough. We like this spot for the Tigers on Saturday. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-05-19 | Twins v. Phillies -147 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
918 Minnesota at Philadelphia Odorizzi & Pivetta Our numbers have the Phillies dominating this contest with the only Minnesota edge coming via an 8% defensive edge. Will there be a letdown for the Phillies after facing the Nationals in the last series? Possibly, but unlike the physical play of basketball and football, baseball doesn’t seem to have that same letdown capacity. Philadelphia hits righties at home 20% better than the Twins hit right-handed pitching on the road. And Jake Odorizzi rates 15% worse than league average, while we really like Nick Pivetta. Out rating have him 17% better than league average, and most sharp baseball minds have him exploding this season. Cheap number here with the better team, better starter, and better offense playing at home. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-05-19 | Mariners v. White Sox +112 | 8-10 | Win | 112 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at Chicago White Sox Kikuchi & Lopez If this game was being played a week ago the White Sox would be clear home favorites. But the Mariners have gotten off to a much better start than expected, and now we can take advantage of that small sample size. Seattle took 3 of 4 from the Red Sox and won two straight against the Angels, both series being played at home. When those two opponents played teams other than the Mariners, the Red Sox went 1-3 and the Angels 1-4. So don’t read too much into the Mariners success, it just so happened it played teams struggling to open the season. While Seattle owns slight edges in offense and starting pitching, the White Sox have equal advantages in defense and the bullpen. We rate this game dead even and have Chicago a slight favorite with home field advantage. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
906 Arizona at San Diego Ray & Lucchesi The more we look into this contest the more we like a bounce back for the Padres. Arizona hits lefties 6% lower than league average and we rate Lucchesi a solid 5% better than the more publicized Ray. San Diego has a slight defense edge and a 7% bullpen advantage. In reality though that bullpen edge is magnified this afternoon. The Diamondbacks had to use the back end of its bullpen last night as Bradley and Holland combined for 27 pitches. The Padres rested the back end of its bullpen and only Robert Stock has pitched in the last two nights, throwing just 12 pitches in striking out the Diamondbacks side on Monday. Nice price for the Padres to get some revenge. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-02-19 | Twins -134 v. Royals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
967 Minnesota at Kansas City Berrios & Keller Really impressed with Jose Berrios and what we expect from the Twins ace this year. He dominated the Tribe in his first outing and we rate this Royals offense 10% below league average. In fact, the Twins own advantages in every key category in this one. Including a solid 21% edge in starting pitching. We made this line much higher than what has come out as the opener, and the early money is moving our way. Still plenty of value left in this one. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-01-19 | Astros -157 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
919 Houston at Texas Peacock & Smyly Drew Smyly returns to action for the first time in a very long time, as his injury past has been extensive. While our numbers rate him 6% better than league average, he will surely by rusty and his pitch count will be monitored. That’s very important as the Texas bullpen will be gassed after using eight pitchers the last two nights against the Cubs. The only edge the Rangers have in this game is a 7% advantage defensively. Brad Peacock would be a number two or three starter on most teams, but he has been blocked in Houston. Our numbers have him at 23% better than league average, and because he hasn’t been a starter much in the past his name recognition helps with the number here. We believe the Astros should have been a -198 favorite here, which gives us plenty of value on the road team. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-31-19 | Braves v. Phillies -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
964 Atlanta at Philadelphia While we are not one to release many favorites of this size, this number is very cheap based on our ratings. While we like Kyle Wright for his future success, pitching on national tv in his debut here is a very tough situation. He’s currently rated 14% below league average and the Braves bullpen is in shambles. Jake Arrieta isn’t the same pitcher he was just a few short years ago, but he’s still rated league average by our numbers. We expected this line to be much higher than it is, so we will jump at a rare chance to bet the Phillies at home at a decent number. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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03-31-19 | Cubs v. Rangers +120 | 10-11 | Win | 120 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
980 Chicago at Texas The early money here has come in on the dog and we fully support it. In fact, we have the Rangers graded out to be the slight favorite here as the opening number was way off. Cole Hamels returning to Texas will be the main story here, but the disparity in defense and the bullpens are where the true value is in this contest. All Joe Public looks for is hitting and starting pitching, which will point them slightly to the Cubs here. But when everything is considered the Rangers hold all the betting value. PLAY TEXAS |
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03-30-19 | Rockies v. Marlins +123 | 3-7 | Win | 123 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
908 Colorado at Miami Plenty of value of the host here as we are a big fan of today’s starter Pablo Lopez. We already rate this youngster as 2% better than a league average starter, which is really saying something for a player no one knows outside of the state of Florida. The Rockies are expected to challenge the Dodgers this season, but we just don’t buy it. This offense rates out at league average on the road, and we bet Colorado under in season wins. With Colorado taking the first two games of the series, the public is buying into this short term sample. We like the Marlins to get into the win column here with a very generous price. PLAY MIAMI |
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03-30-19 | Indians -110 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
917 Cleveland at Minnesota Loving me some Indians here on Saturday. We have the Tribe with every edge except hitting in this matchup. And we feel Trevor Bauer is in for a Cy Young type of season. We rate him 34% better than journeyman Jake Odorizzi. The Cleveland bullpen and defense add up to another 12% advantage for the visitor. Cleveland has taken money overnight, and we fully agree. But there is still plenty of value in this cheap number. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-29-19 | Cardinals +106 v. Brewers | 9-5 | Win | 106 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
953 St Louis at Milwaukee Opening day game comes down to the wire and the Brewers hold on for the victory. But in doing so Josh Hader had to throw 21 high pressure pitches in two innings of work. As opposed to the best arms in the Cardinals bullpen who had the day off. Our numbers show the Cards to have a 4% hitting edge, and a 5% bullpen advantage if Hader is available. The starter ratings show Flaherty to be 16% better than Peralta, and that number is very generous to the Brewers righty. Let’s grab this underdog price on the Cardinals as we expect St Louis to go off as a slight favorite. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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03-28-19 | Tigers +130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-0 | Win | 130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
921 Detroit at Toronto Zimmerman & Stroman We are looking to fade the Blue Jays here in the favorite role. This team should be in for a very long season, especially as it keeps the expected rookie of the year down in the minors. Jordan Zimmermann rates exactly even with Marcus Stroman, as both pitchers are 4% below league average. That really tells you all you need to know about these two pitching staffs, as these two mediocre pitchers get opening day starts. The Tigers have a 1% edge in the bullpen, while Toronto has the same 1% advantage in defense. The Jays own a small 3% edge offensively, which doesn’t equate to this betting line. Plenty of value on the Tigers here. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
906 Boston at Los Angeles Change of scenery does wonders for the Dodgers here. Boston has to move around its excellent defense in order to get a subpar defensive player in JD Martinez into the field. No DH is a major problem for the Sox tonight defensively, especially if the move is in that excellent defensive outfield. Big starting pitcher edge for LA here as we have Buehler rated much higher than Porcello. The Dodgers have a 19% bullpen advantage and a 17% hitting edge as Boston really isn’t much better than league average on the road vs righties. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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10-14-18 | Astros -128 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
951 Houston at Boston Cole & Price Sizable edges for the road team here as we grade Cole 13% higher than Price. The Houston bullpen is also superior by 22% while the offenses are even. The Astros are a very confident team and the deepest squad in the league. With Houston being stellar on the road this season we will back the Astros here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-13-18 | Dodgers -128 v. Brewers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
905 LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Ryu & Miley As good as Miley has been for the Brewers this year, it’s still a small sample size compared to his history. Which is why we grade Ryu 14% higher than the Brewers lefty. The Milwaukee bullpen is better but its best piece Hader threw 40 pitches yesterday, and he’s likely out tonight. With the offense being somewhat of a wash, we look for the Dodgers to even up this series today. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
922 Boston at New York Porcello & Sabathia Cheap number on the Yankees here with its back to the wall after being blown out yesterday. While Boston has a 6% starting pitcher edge, the Yankees are far superior in the bullpen and offensively. New York hits 25% better at home vs right-handed starters than league average. We lay the short number tonight on the Yankees to even the series. PLAY NEW YORK |
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10-06-18 | Indians v. Astros -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
952 Cleveland at Houston Carrasco & Cole Edges abound for the host here with an 11% starter edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 10% hitting edge. The Indians feasted on a bad division this season, while the Astros played in a competitive division and still put up a better record. The Astros are the best team in the postseason and this is a cheap number to get them at home. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -150 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
908 Cleveland at Houston Putting this one up late so sorry for the lack of analysis. Purely a value play on the Astros. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
911 Los Angeles at Arizona Stripling & Greinke Just an amazing season for Ross Stripling who came out of nowhere this year when the Dodgers really needed him. LA has limited his innings as of late but the bullpen is solid. We rate the righty 17% better than Greinke in this contest. The Dodgers also have a 3% bullpen edge and a 12% offensive advantage. Greinke has pitched better at home this year, but the major inning numbers have taken a toll on him the past month. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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09-21-18 | Mets v. Nationals +145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
952 NY Mets at Washington We all know how great Jacob deGrom has been this year, and he’s been just as good on the road. But even in a Cy Young year this number is way too high. We rate the Mets starter 32% better than Ross, but the other key stats all all heavily on the Nats. This game should be much closer to a pick ‘em. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-18-18 | Nationals -184 v. Marlins | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
903 Washington at Miami Strasburg and Alcantara We don’t usually tread in this deep of water when it comes to playing large favorites, but this line is really cheap considering the matchups. The Nationals rate 36% better in starting pitching, 18% better in the bullpen and 23% better offensively. Strasburg owns a 2.26 ERA on the road with a 1.05 WHIP and .229 opposing team batting average. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Marlins in five innings this year. Alcantara has gotten off to a nice start with the Marlins but keep in mind he had a 1.80 WHIP last year in St Louis and has always suffered with control problems. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-15-18 | Twins +113 v. Royals | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
971 Minnesota at Kansas City De Jong & Kennedy Young Chase De Jong rates 5% higher than veteran Ian Kennedy and the Twins bullpen is 19% better than the host. Minnesota also has a 15% offensive advantage. A clean sweep on the underdog, can’t pass this one up. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-15-18 | White Sox v. Orioles +115 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
970 Chicago at Baltimore Lopez & Ramirez Bullpen game for the Orioles with Yefry Ramirez on the mound. He has been much better pitching at home than on the road. Lopez on the other hand has a 4.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .268 opponent batting average away from home. Our numbers show Ramirez with a 16% advantage and the Baltimore bats with an 8% edge. Chicago does have a 4% bullpen advantage. Wrong team favored here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-14-18 | Diamondbacks +177 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 177 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
927 Arizona at Houston Ray & Keuchel Our numbers show the Diamondbacks with a solid 15% starting pitcher edge, while the Astros have the bullpen and hitting advantages by 18% and 15%. That’s not nearly high enough to be a favorite in this price range. Robbie Ray has been outstanding on the road all season with a 2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .193 opponent batting average. Dallas Keuchel at home is just 4-5 on the season with a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .253 opponent batting average. Nice spot to take the generous dog price with the much better starter. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-07-18 | Astros +100 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
969 Houston at Boston Cole & Price Terrific series between the two best teams in baseball. Cole rates 16% better than Price, although both are elite starters. Boston has a 2% better bullpen, but both are among the league leaders. Offensively Houston excels with a 4% advantage, although combined these two are 30% better than league average in hitting. Cole is equally good on the road as opposed to home. His opponent batting average away of .206 is simply outstanding. Price has been better at home than away, but his inconsistency has hurt his season. Keep in mind he only pitched 74 innings a year ago, so he may be hitting a wall about now. We would rather trust Cole and company, and this line is quite the bargain. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-05-18 | Rays -122 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
965 Tampa Bay at Toronto Glasnow & Sanchez Huge pitching advantage for the Rays as we rate Glasnow 52% higher than Aaron Sanchez. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 6% advantage, while Toronto owns a 2% batting advantage. Sanchez continues to make his way back from major surgery, and while he does we can continue to take advantage. A 5.22 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP give us all the numbers we need to go against this starter. While it is a small sample size Tyler Glasnow has a 2.89 road ERA and a 0.70 WHIP on the road, along with an opponent batting average of .117. His overall numbers through 86.2 innings are very good as well. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-04-18 | Cubs -103 v. Brewers | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
907 Chicago at Milwaukee Montgomery & Miley Chicago owns the advantages across the board with a 12% starting pitcher edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 3% offensive edge. Montgomery has been better on the road, while Miley has done the same. The Cubs are the better squad and Miley is living on borrowed time. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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09-04-18 | Tigers +154 v. White Sox | Top | 8-3 | Win | 154 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
921 Detroit at Chicago Liriano & Giolito Detroit has a 14% starting pitcher advantage, and an 8% hitting edge, while the bullpens are virtually equal. The White Sox hit 16% worse than league average at home vs left-handed starters. Giolito has been a disaster in the major leagues, after being a highly touted prospect in the minors. He has pitched great his last three outings, which is why this line is so high. That said we cannot ignore his MLB history of a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Let’s take advantage of this small sample size as we expect Giolito to regress in this start. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-03-18 | Angels v. Rangers -106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Texas Shoemaker & Springs Matt Shoemaker finally makes his second start of the season after not pitching in the majors since March. The line is based on him going somewhat deep into the game, but we expect this to be a bullpen game for the Angels. Exactly as it will be for the Rangers. Our numbers show the Rangers with a 10% starter advantage, with a 6% bullpen edge. The host also has a 6% offensive advantage in this one. Very cheap price on the host today. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-31-18 | Blue Jays v. Marlins +105 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
930 Toronto at Miami Sanchez & Straily Aaron Sanchez continues to work his way back into the Blue Jays future plans. The problem for Toronto fans is that he’s still not close to his pre-injury days. While Toronto has nothing to play for the management wants to get him in playing shape for next season, and build up his arm strength. That’s a big advantage for us as we rate Aaron Sanchez 43% lower than an average MLB starter. While Toronto does have a 12% bullpen edge, it’s Miami with a 3% batting advantage. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-30-18 | Twins +195 v. Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
961 Minnesota at Cleveland Odorizzi & Clevenger This line is way too high by our numbers. Cleveland does have a 13% starting pitcher advantage, but that’s the only major edge for the Tribe. The Indians put Miller on the DL again, and Cody Allen has lost all confidence. The hitting is virtually identical. Odorizzi has shown better numbers on the road, while so has Clevenger. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-29-18 | Mariners v. Padres -109 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at San Diego Ramirez & Lucchesi The Padres have a 22% starting pitcher advantage, as our numbers really like Joey Lucchesi. He has a strange delivery which takes time to adjust to, especially in an interleave situation. The Padres bullpen also rates a 17% edge, while the Mariners own a 4% offensive advantage. Erasmo Ramirez is off three productive starts, but his career numbers have been mediocre at best. On the road he has a 5.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and allows opponents a .286 batting average. Joey Lucchesi has actually pitched better on the road, as home runs have been a problem at home. He has permitted 12 homers in only 61.1 innings of work here at Petco. That’s an anomaly we don’t see continuing. Nice price with the better pitching staff. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-28-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -157 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
958 Pittsburgh at St Louis Nova & Flaherty The Cardinals starter has a solid 27% advantage over Nova. The Pittsburgh bullpen does have a slight 5% advantage. St Louis owns the offense by 11% as the Pirates hit righties on the road 10% lower than league average. Jack Flaherty has been good at home with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .205 opponent batting average. Ivan Nova owns a 5.18 ERA away with a 1.38 WHIP and a .278 opponent batting average. We don’t normally tread in this price range but the value is there on the host. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-26-18 | Rangers v. Giants -146 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
978 Texas at San Francisco Gallardo & Holland Major starting pitcher advantage for Holland who rates 35% better than Yovani. San Francisco also holds a 15% bullpen edge, to go along with a 20% hitting advantage. The Rangers are 14% below league average on the road vs left handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-26-18 | White Sox v. Tigers +104 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
968 Chicago at Detroit Kopech & Zimmermann Michael Kopech has gotten a ton of hype which is why we can take advantage of the betting market here. We’ve followed his career in the minors and frankly we feel he is overrated. He struck out four batters in two innings in his debut, which helped push the hype train. While we rate him 7% better than Zimmerman, the host has the other key edges. A 6% bullpen advantage and a 14% hitting edge, as the Sox are 15% below league average on the road vs righties. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -110 v. Blue Jays | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
975 Philadelphia at Toronto Velasquez & Estrada Major pitching edge here as Marco Estrada is finally showing the regression many have called for the last few years. We rate Valasquez 26% superior to the Jays starter. The Phillies bullpen has a 12% advantage and offensively Philadelphia is 11% better than Toronto. We are getting quite a bargain on this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants -141 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
928 Texas at San Francisco Perez & Suarez Despite the win/loss records of the starters, we have a pitching mismatch by our numbers. Clear data sports has the Giants’ starter rated 39% higher than Perez. The San Francisco bullpen has a 15% edge and the offense a 17% advantage. Many times we agree with the line moves on games but this one is an exception. The opener was in the correct ballpark. Perez has battled through injuries throughout his career and has never lived up to the hype. He has a 6.82 ERA on the road this season with a whopping 1.91 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .362. While he’s obviously not that bad, that just tells you how he has struggled this season. Andrew Suarez has been much better at home than on the road. He owns a 3.79 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .247. His strikeout to walk ratio is almost twice as high at home than on the road. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
959 St Louis at Colorado Mikolas & Senzatela Major pitching advantage for the Cards here as Mikolas rates 30% better than his mound counterpart. Colorado owns a 4% bullpen edge, while the Cards have a 2% offensive advantage. Mikolas has a perfect 7-0 mark on the road this year. With a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average. Antonio Senzatela has pitched better at home this year with a 3.00 ERA. But his whip is high at 1.43 and his opponent batting average is .277. So don’t let that ERA fool you as he has permitted just one home run at Coors in 21 innings on the mound. We really though the Cards would be a sizable favorite tonight, this is a bargain price. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-23-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -131 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
914 Chicago at Detroit Shields & Boyd Big advantages for the host here. Detroit has a 29% starting pitcher edge, a 6% bullpen advantage, and a whopping 20 offensive edge. Chicago hits lefties on the road 20% worse than league average. Boyd is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .185 opponent batting average at Tiger Stadium. James Shields on the other hand is 1-7 on the road with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-22-18 | Cardinals +152 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 152 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
961 St Louis at Los Angeles Flaherty & Buehler Very surprised by the size of this line as we have this matchup much closer. Flaherty rates 5% better than Buehler, also we love both of these starters. While the Dodgers bullpen does have a sizable 23% advantage, it’s been in shambles as of late. The Dodgers have a 15% advantage offensively, but not nearly enough to support this high spread. The Cardinals are on a 19-6 run including taking the first two games of this series. The Dodgers on the other hand have lost 8 of 11. Plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-21-18 | Indians v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
916 Cleveland at Boston Bieber & Eovaldi As an Indians fan we watch every Tribe game all season. While the starting pitching staff has been terrific, we feel Shane Bieber is a ticking time bomb. Most of his stuff is pedestrian, and he’s had success because he’s only allowed seven home runs in 68 innings. His ERA is 4.37 which is mediocre. His WHIP is 1.41 which is high, and he allows opponents a .295 batting average which gets you sent to the minors very quickly. He’s having success at this level by smoke and mirrors. Nathan Eovaldi has always had a terrific fastball in which he tried to overpower the batter and get the strikeout. Because of that he was too predictable and couldn’t go long in the game. This year because of getting older and prior injuries he’s finally learning how to be a pitcher. Since coming to the Red Sox he’s pitched 15 innings in Fenway Park and has yet to give up a single earned run. On the season his ERA is 3.62 with a WHIP of 1.04. This line is low because of public perception, especially on the Bieber side of the equation. Let’s look for the Sox to even this series. PLAY BOSTON |
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08-20-18 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
966 Chicago at Minnesota Giolito & Gonsalves Decent price to go against one of our worst rated pitchers in the league. Not only do the Twins have a massive starting pitcher edge, but also a 20% advantage in the bullpen. Offensively Minnesota owns a 27% advantage offensively. Chicago hits lefties on the road 16% lower than average, and now must face a pitcher the players have never seen at this level. Stephen Gonsalves has been simply amazing in his minor league career. He owns a 53-20 record with a 2.46 ERA. His WHIP is 1.10 with an opponent batting average of .199. That covers 599 minor league innings. We always like to back rookie lefties the first time through the league, and he should dominate this light hitting White Sox lineup. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-19-18 | Astros -144 v. A's | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
927 Houston at Oakland Verlander & Manaea Strong starting pitcher advantage for the Astros here. Our numbers show a 33% advantage with Verlander. Houston also shows an 18% bullpen edge. Houston also rakes on the road vs lefties hitting 20% higher than league average. Justin Verlander has dominated on the road this year with a 1.74 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent batting average of just .195. While Manaea’s home stats are good the A’s haven’t backed him with much support. He’s only 5-5 on this mound this season. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-17-18 | Mets +154 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
901 NY Mets at Philadelphia Syndergaard & Nola Two excellent starters go head to head on Friday and we believe the line is a bit inflated on the host. Our numbers show the only real advantage in this game being the Phillies bullpen, but Syndergaard normally goes deep into games. We also feel that after the Phillies permitted a total of 30 runs yesterday, the bullpen will obviously be a little taxed. The Mets have played nine road games this month against the pitching staffs of the Nationals, Marlins, Yankees, Orioles and Phillies. In those nine games New York produced 73 runs. Since the All-Star Break the Mets have averaged 6.7 runs away from home. With Thor on the mound and the Mets being underrated on the road all season we like our chances in this one. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-16-18 | Mets +145 v. Phillies | Top | 24-4 | Win | 145 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Philadelphia Oswalt & Suarez First Game of Today’s Doubleheader Taking a look at Corey Oswalt’s numbers suggest a much better pitcher than a 5.03 ERA would indicate. He’s allowed seven home runs on the season which is why the ERA is so high. But in reality he has a 1.07 WHIP and allows opponents just a .224 batting average. The Mets are one of if not the best road hitting team in baseball. It’s Citi Field that keeps this offense from getting the respect it deserves. Philadelphia was just in a series against the team running away with the best record in the league, the Red Sox. That was a show me series for this young team. We can’t see them getting up for the lowly Mets here. Our numbers have New York as a real bargain here. PLAY NEW YORK METS 1ST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
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08-15-18 | Pirates v. Twins -117 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show |
918 Pittsburgh at Minnesota Archer & Berrios The Minnesota hitters should have an advantage here as they are very familiar with Chris Archer from his years in Tampa Bay. The Pirates hitters on the other hand are unfamiliar with Jose Berrios. The Minnesota hurler has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, but should bounce back strongly here. He has a 2.95 ERA at home with an amazing 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .187 against him on this mound. We rate Berrios with an 11% starting pitcher advantage, and a 15% hitting edge here, with the bullpens being even. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
962 Chicago at Detroit Giolito & Hardy Lucas Giolito was once a prized pitcher in the Washington farm system. He was traded to the White Sox, and after Tommy John surgery has never been the same. He’s pitched much better on the road than at home this season, and he still has terrible numbers away. It’s even worse when he pitches at night, with a 7.24 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. This is not a pitcher we want anything to do with in this price range. Clear Data Sports rates Giolito 50% worse than an average major league pitcher. The White Sox continue to trot out three of the worst starters in baseball. Hardy rates 49% higher than Giolito, the Detroit bullpen has a 6% edge, and offensively Detroit hits 6% better against right-handed starters than the White Sox. Hardy has been a real bright spot for the Tigers this year. We trust him and the Tigers to make quick work of the visitor tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
904 Washington at St Louis Milone & Mikolas Devastating loss for the Nationals last night with their ace starting the contest. Losing a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth with one swing is about as bad of a loss as you can think of. Now the Bats have to travel off a night game to face the rejuvenated Cardinals. Huge pitching edge for the host who has a 41% advantage in the starters. The bullpens are equal, while Washington does have a 4% batting advantage. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding in this ballpark. A 2.01 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP on the season. He’s allowing opponents a .237 batting average and has only permitted two home runs in an amazing 71.2 innings of work at home. While that last stat is sure to regress, this man has owned this mound all season. Cheap number considering the circumstances. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-11-18 | Cardinals -154 v. Royals | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Kansas City Flaherty & Duffy While we have made a living on underdogs this season, this is the time of year that favorites are golden. Once rosters expand we will find great value on underdogs and youth energizes losing teams. But for now we will lay it with the Cardinals tonight. Huge starting pitcher advantage for the Cards in this one with a 36% advantage with Flaherty. St Louis also holds a nice bullpen edge over the Royals. St Louis should dominate in the batters box with a 21% advantage as the Cards his lefty starters on the road 13% above league average. Let’s take a look at home poorly Danny Duffy has performed at home this season. He is 1-5 with a whopping 6.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .288 against him. Only three times this season has he permitted less than 4 earned runs in a home start. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Reds | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
955 Arizona at Cincinnati Buchholz & DeSclafani Fair price for the far better team here as we look to back Buchholz on the road. When healthy Clay has been a very good pitcher in his career. After two years struggling with injuries he’s back and resembling his old self. Our numbers count his injury struggles in the past and he still rates slightly higher than his mound opponent. The Arizona bullpen has a huge 18% advantage in this contest. The Diamondbacks also have a wide 14% offensive edge, as Cincinnati is 17% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. Buchholz has an excellent 2.10 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road, he also hold opponents to a .198 batting average. He owns a 29 to 7 SO to W ratio. DeSclafani has a 5.65 ERA at home with a 1.47 WHIP. Opponents are batting .287 against him in Cincinnati. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -128 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
908 Pittsburgh at San Francisco Nova & Suarez Time to take advantage of one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. Ivan Nova has been solid pitching at PNC Park, but look at what he has done the last few years on the road. This season 5.40ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Last year 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 3-12 record. In 2016 he had a 6.65 ERA And a 1.46 WHIP. Andrew Suarez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 8 earned runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. He has been a much better pitcher at home posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the season. Our numbers rate him 13% better than Nova, with the bullpens rating virtually identical. But the Giants have a large 14% hitting edge as the Pirates are 11% below league average on the road vs left-handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-08-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +134 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
968 Boston at Toronto Johnson & Hauschild We’ve been looking for a chance to go against Brian Johnson and the price is right here to take the underdog Jays. While the numbers say Johnson has a 2.22 ERA on the road this year, he has been extremely lucky. His road WHIP is 1.56 and he permits a .293 opponent batting average. Last year on the road he had an 8.22 ERA with a 1.96 WHIP and a .324 opponent batting average. Our numbers show Mike Hauschild to be 6% better than Johnson, with the bullpen being virtually equal. Boston hits right-handed starters on the road equally as well as Toronto hits lefties at home. This line should be closer to even. PLAY TORONTO |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals -155 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
903 St Louis at Miami Mikolas & Lopez We have a 15% starting pitching edge for the Cardinals, as well as a 12% bullpen advantage. St Louis also has the dominant offense by 14%, as the Marlins are 11% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. In home games Pablo Lopez has a 5.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and allows a .304 opponent batting average. While Mikolas is known for his outstanding 2.01 ERA at home, he’s actually done very well on the road. He’s 6-0 with a solid 3.56 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average. Let’s lay it with the Cards, a team that looks ready to make a playoff push. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-05-18 | Rockies +103 v. Brewers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 103 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
909 Colorado at Milwaukee Gray & Miley While John Gray has looked like an entirely different pitcher since being sent down to the minors. This handicap is based strictly on going against Wade Miley. The Brewers pitcher has long been a fringe starter simply because he pitches from the left side. If he had been a righty he would have been out of baseball years ago. He has 206 career innings with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. IN 2017 his ERA was 5.61 with a WHIP of 1.73. In 2016 his ERA was 6.17 with a WHIP of 1.57. In 29.1 innings of work this season he has a 1.53 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Do we trust a 200 inning career or 29 innings this season? If you have followed our work for any time I believe you know the answer to that. Small sample sizes get the novice better excited, but a veteran capper knows how to take advantage of blips on the radar. Our numbers give Gay a whopping 53% advantage over Miley. Milwaukee does have a 6% bullpen edge, and a 7% hitting advantage. But those numbers cannot even come close to the starter advantage for the Rockies, who actually hit league average on the road vs lefties. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-03-18 | Angels +182 v. Indians | 7-4 | Win | 182 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
919 Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Barria & Clevinger Word out of LA is that Mike Trout is questionable tonight which is why this line is so high. Questionable means there is a 75% chance he plays, but the line is saying he won’t. Even if he doesn’t suit up we are still getting quite a bargain in this price. Cleveland does have a 9% starter advantage here and a solid bullpen edge. But the Angels have a 9% hitting advantage here as LA is 15% better than league average against right-handed starters on the road. Interesting numbers from Mike Clevinger as he pitches much better on the road than at Progressive Field. This year he has a 4.26 ERA at home compared to a 2.69 ERA on the road. At home he has a 1.31 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .270 against him. Last year he had a 3.79 ERA at home compared to a 2.45 ERA away. His WHIP was 1.35 at home and he let opponents hit 46 points better here than on the road. The Indians are 7-5 since the All-Star break but have faced a very easy schedule of Minnesota, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Texas. The Tribe doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this magnitude. PLAY LAS ANGELS ANGELS |
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08-02-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -138 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
952 Colorado at St Louis Senzatela & Mikolas Pretty simple handicap here as we rate Mikolas with a massive 35% starting pitching advantage in this one. That number doesn’t even consider the home/road dichotomy of these two starters. Senzatela has an ERA over 7 on the road this year, although his advanced numbers are better than that. But Mikolas has a 2.09 ERA at home to go along with a 1.01 WHIP. He’s a perfect 6-0 in day games. While the Colorado bullpen is 7% better, the Cardinals own a 5% hitting advantage against the Rockies. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-31-18 | Mets +168 v. Nationals | Top | 4-25 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Washington Matz & Roark This contest is very similar to our play on the Orioles with Bundy the other day. We have a pitcher that has struggled his last three starts, while everyone is ignoring the larger sample size. Steven Matz has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings. This is opposed to his solid 3.79 ERA on the season. Matz has really struggled at Shea Stadium the past three years with a 5-13 record, 1-9 the past two years. We are getting his one the road, off three poor outings, at an inflated price. Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of the season, eight shutout innings with an 11-1 strikeout to walk ratio. But that game was pitched in Milwaukee. He’s been dreadful at home the last two years. He’s 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA here this year, and 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA last year. Let’s grab the nicely priced underdog as the Nationals continue to underperform. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-30-18 | Giants -102 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
907 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Lauer A couple of mediocre lefties take the hill for these two western squads on Monday. Holland has been downright terrible the two previous years, but he’s been very productive for the Giants this season. It looked like his best years were far behind him when he pitched quality ball for the Rangers. But he’s starting to resemble himself from those years. Because he has been bad for so long, he’s an afterthought in the betting marketplace. But that only gives us value tonight. We have Holland rated 14% better than Lauer. While San Diego did have a sizable bullpen edge, that’s gone now with Cimber and Hand being traded to Cleveland. Without them the bullpen has really struggled. With the offenses grading out equally, we can take advantage of the Padres recent struggles. As this team has really taken a step back the last month or so. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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07-29-18 | Rays v. Orioles +109 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 109 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Chirinos & Bundy We love to play against overreactions and small sample sizes, and today we have a classic example. Yonny Chirinos is getting a chance to start again for the Rays. He’s been good this season but he hasn’t racked up many innings because of injury. We like his future but he can’t expect to go very long today. He opposes Dylan Bundy who is the established ace of this staff. But we are getting him and the O’s today in an underdog role based on his current form. In his last three starts he has been lit up for 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. Thats a short sample size people overreact to. The time to play against Bundy was three games ago, not now when everyone and their brother a going against him. The buy market is screaming for the Orioles today and we take advantage. Sports betting is all about ebbs and flows. Selling high and buying low. We have these two starters rated virtually even. While the Rays do have a 12% better bullpen, the hitting advantage is all Orioles. Baltimore hits righties at home 17% better than the Rays hit righties on the road. We look for the Baltimore bats to do some pounding today. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +100 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
902 Chicago at St Louis Quintana & Mikolas Very fair number here to back Miles Mikolas at home. He’s been dynamite on this mound all season with an amazing 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Our numbers show him at 21% stronger than Quintana, while the bullpens are almost exactly rated even. St Louis does have a 5% offensive edge against lefties at home, compared to the Cubs road work against righties. We go against the public team here in a major rivalry game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-27-18 | Phillies -106 v. Reds | 4-6 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
953 Philadelphia at Cincinnati Pivetta & DeSciafani Small sample sizes are our friend. When others overreact to recent form we step in and take advantage. It worked for us last night going against what had been the red hot Pirates, and we believe we have another edge to exploit here. Nick Pivetta has terrific stuff, he’s dominating in strikeouts per inning. But he as many young pitchers are deals with inconsistency. Others will look at his last three starts and see eight earned runs in 14.2 innings of work. Doing that against the light hitting Padres, Orioles and Pirates. But closer inspection shows an 18 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio in those games. In his last start after the All-Star Break he had 9 strikeouts without a walk against the Padres. We have the Phillies righty graded 24% stronger than Anthony DeSciafani. Along with sizable edges in the bullpen and offensively, the Phillies are a bargain on Friday. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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07-26-18 | Mets +140 v. Pirates | 12-6 | Win | 140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
903 NY Mets at Pittsburgh Matz & Kingham Great spot to go against the Pirates who had a long winning streak broken in Cleveland yesterday. In that game two of its red hot hitters were injured and unlikely to play today. Pittsburgh is basically a league average team who is coming off a nice run, but the Pirates have shown it can have a losing streak just as easily. The starting pitcher matchup favors the host slightly, but the Mets bullpen has the same small advantage. Neither team is in its preferred hitting situation. As the Mets are 9% below league average on the road against righties, while the Bucs are 7% below average at home vs lefties. If this game had been played two weeks ago Pittsburgh would have been a -120 favorite. Because of a recent two week stretch we are getting a great amount of value with the visitor. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-25-18 | Astros -118 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
977 Houston at Colorado Morton & Gray Two superior starters take the mound in Colorado. Which isn’t always a good pitching result because of the altitude. But in this case we rate the host slightly better from a starter standpoint. The Houston bullpen along with the Yankees are the two most lethal in all of baseball. We see a 26% bullpen edge for the Astros here. We also prefer the Houston bats by 10% against right-handed starters, as opposed to the host. Charlie Morton has been very consistent this year at home and away. Jon Gray has been consistent too, but he’s having a down year overall. In fact, the Rockies had sent him to the minors in order to work out his problems. We feel much better about Morton here in regards to this start, as we can’t guarantee the old Gray has returned. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-24-18 | Pirates +172 v. Indians | Top | 9-4 | Win | 172 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
925 Pittsburgh at Cleveland Musgrove & Bieber In interleague action this year the National League has dominated. That’s a major break from the American League having the upper hand for years. Pittsburgh continued that streak with a rain shortened win over the Tribe yesterday. Here we find two young hurlers going head to head, and we believe the line is drastically high. Both starters rate equally but let’s take a closer look at Shane Bieber. Opponents are hitting .291 against him this season, with a 1.34 WHIP. While the 3.53 ERA is fine, that number is sure to rise based on the lack of success he has had getting opponents out. He’s been very lucky in allowing just four home runs in 43.1 innings of work. Laying such a large favorite into a team on a long winning streak is something you should rarely do. The closer dive into Bieber’s numbers make us a buyer on the Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-22-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Brewers | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
907 LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Wood & Suter Cheap number in our opinion on the Dodgers here, especially because Hader and Knebel combined for 55 pitches yesterday. When handicapping the Brewers the key point is to pay special attention to the bullpen. It may not be a major concern coming ogg the All-Star break, but neither will be 100% on Sunday afternoon. We show the pitching overall to be a wash, with the Dodgers starter holding a slight edge, but the bullpen making the pitching even. We do like LA on the road against a left-handed starter, as Milwaukee at home vs lefties are 7% below league average. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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07-21-18 | Giants v. A's -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
982 San Francisco at Oakland Bumgarner & Cahill While the San Francisco lefty owns a 9% talent edge in this contest, the situation and history clearly shows Cahill to be a play on here. The bullpen slightly favors the host. Offensively the A’s have dominated at home against left-handed starters. Oakland has a whopping 17% offensive edge in this game. MD has posted an 8-11 record on the road the past three seasons, as he isn’t nearly as dominant outside of San Francisco. Cahill is off his two worst starts of the season and is well rested to resume what had been an excellent campaign. He’s been nearly untouchable at home with a 0.64 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He has a major home/road dichotomy in which we can take advantage. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-20-18 | Astros v. Angels +117 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
922 Houston at LA Angels Keuchel & Skaggs With the Angels now 14 games behind the Astros and 9 behind Seattle in the wildcard chase, this team needs to start the second half of the season in style. And the situation screams for the host here. The Astros just had a number of players flying into and out of the nation’s capital for the All-Star Game. It’s a great honor to be a participant in those festivities but it wrecks havoc on your body clock. As opposed to the Angels, the Astros had a major group who were in Washington DC this week. That’s a major advantage for the Angels here in what is sure to be a tough night for many players. Especially offensively as the first game after the break traditionally is lower scoring. While both starters are in excellent current form, we prefer Skaggs in this matchup. Our numbers have him as a rising star that’s being undervalued in the marketplace. The offenses rate very close to even, but the situational advantage hurts the visitor. While Houston has the vastly superior bullpen, we believe the wrong team is favored here. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-14-18 | Rays v. Twins -130 | Top | 19-6 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
966 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Archer & Berrios Chris Archer back from the DL has had a very disappointing year. He’s still rated 7% better than an average starting pitcher, but he just hasn’t been the same this season. Jose Berrios on the other hand has been excellent, with a 20% better number than his mound opponent today. The Minnesota bullpen rates 11% stronger as well, so the pitching should be a dominant advantage on Saturday. Then we turn to the offenses where Minnesota rates 15% higher than Tampa Bay against right-handed starters. The line is very fair for the home team as the Twins grab the victory. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-13-18 | Cubs v. Padres +115 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
912 Chicago Cubs at San Diego Chatwood & Richard Great opportunity to go against our lowest rated starting pitcher at a plus money price. Tyler Chatwood is 44% below average for a major league starter. He just can’t keep the opposition off base. Chatwood comes in with a horrendous 1.78 WHIP on the season, which is even worse his last seven starts at 2.01. While the Cubs offense is 18% stronger than the Padres, the San Diego pitching edges rule this contest. San Diego has a 36% edge on the starting rubber, as well as an 11% advantage in the bullpen. Fading public teams is a good way to build your bankroll, as we do so here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-13-18 | Nationals v. Mets -118 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
904 Washington at NY Mets Roark & Syndergaard The Nationals are really struggling right now, especially offensively. They only have a 3% offensive advantage in this contest. Washington has invested heavily in the bullpen and is still just 4% stronger than that of the Mets. The huge advantage for the host here is on the starting bump, where Syndergaard is 52% better than Roark. That’s one of the biggest starter advantages you will see, and yet the price is very manageable. Roark is 3-11 on the season and in his last seven games he sports a 6.99 ERA. He has permitted 13 earned runs in his last 11 innings, and one of those opponents was the light hitting Marlins. The Nationals have scored 23 total runs in 8 games this month when not playing the lowly Miami Marlins. Don’t expect much offense against the Mets ace. PLAY NY METS |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
961 Toronto at Boston Happ & Price A battle of two solid lefties takes place tonight in Fenway Park. While the matchup slightly favors the host, the batting edge is all with the visitor. JA Happ is coming off two bad performances and now takes on a very good hitting Red Sox team. But all that does is increase the value on the road dog. Small sample sizes are the quickest way to ruin for sports gamblers, and we would rather take a look at how he has done for the year and his career. We rate Happ 11% better than David Price with the bullpens having a slight edge for the Sox. We talked about the Red Sox hitting of lefty starters at home, but it’s only 5% better than the Blue Jays against lefties on the road. Happ is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA on the road this season, with a good WHIP of 1.11. Price at home is 3.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Great value taking the better starter in this price range. PLAY TORONTO |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks -103 v. Rockies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
957 Arizona at Colorado Corbin & Anderson Rare when we get all key components lining up on the same squad in this price range. Patrick Corbin is an All-Star this season for good reason. We rate him 38% better than Tyler Anderson in this contest. The Arizona bullpen has a 2% edge while the offenses are virtually even. As good as Corbin has been at home he has a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road. Anderson comes in hot after back to back eight inning shutouts, but he has pitched much better on the road with a perfect 4-0 mark. Nice price on the better team here as we back the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-09-18 | Reds +180 v. Indians | Top | 7-5 | Win | 180 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
921 Cincinnati at Cleveland DeSciafani & Clevinger Surprised by this high line considering how well the Reds have played over the last month. Cincinnati also plays very well in this in-state series. We do rate Clevinger 12% better than his opposition today, but keep in mind he has pitched much better on the road than at home in his career. The last two seasons his ERA is above one run better when he pitches on the road. Cleveland does have a sizable bullpen edge, but the offenses are even. Chances are Cleveland wins this game, but the true odds are much lower than the current markets indicate. Nice price on the red hot Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-07-18 | Rays v. Mets +121 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
926 Tampa Bay at New York Snell & Matz Blake Snell has been the hottest pitcher in the league as of late. But take a look at his home/road splits. An ERA of 0.87 with a WHIP of 0.87 at home. On the road an ERA of 3.47 with a WHIP of 1.14. He’s very good on the road but not unworldly as he has been at home. We like both these pitchers but Snell does rate 14% better than Matz. New York does have a slight edge in the bullpen, but the big advantage here is in hitting. The Mets are 16% better than Tampa Bay against left-handed starters. In fact, the Rays are a whopping 15% below league average. In what looks to be a low scoring game we get the Mets at solid plus money in a game that should have been lined around pick. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-06-18 | Braves v. Brewers -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
958 Atlanta at Milwaukee Foltynewicz & Peralta Two quality young starters take the mound in this one. Everyone knows the breakout year Mike F has had this season, but not as many know about Freddy Peralta. This young righty has impressed thus far and we rate him 21% better than Foltynewicz, and for those who have been following, we love Mike F. The Milwaukee bullpen is deep and talented which gives them a edge against this also solid Braves bullpen. Offensively our numbers show a 4% advantage offensively for the host. With the public jumping on what they consider to be a live dog, we will back the Brewers at a cheaper number. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-06-18 | Rangers -101 v. Tigers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
967 Texas at Detroit Colon & Zimmermann At the age of 102 Bartolo Colon rates 13% better than Jordan Zimmerman. That’s really all you need to know about the former Washington National. Texas owns a 9% bullpen edge and is slightly better offensively. Detroit has been on a terrible run after showing signs of life about a month ago. But now the Tigers are playing up to its talent level, which isn’t very good. Nice number for the Rangers here. PLAY TEXAS |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
916 Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Barria & Gonzales Sizable starting pitcher advantage of 18% here for the Mariners lefty. Throw in a 3% bullpen advantage and an 8% offensive edge and we have a clear play on the host here. Barria has done a nice job for the Angels but in our opinion he’s pitching over his head. His rest of year projections have him rated as a 4.91 ERA pitcher with a 1.35 WHIP. He’s been pretty fortunate in exit velocity for what he has in talent. Gonzales was hit hard against New York and Boston, but he’s fared well when stepping down in class. The Angels have plenty of holes in this lineup to pitch around the top three hitters. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-04-18 | Rays v. Marlins +105 | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
968 Tampa Bay at Miami Andriese & Urena The Rays outlasted the Marlins yesterday in 16 innings where both teams went deep into the bullpens. The top three relievers for the Rays threw a total of 77 pitches, including 42 for the closer Sergio Romo. Now Matt Andriese who has been a bridge pitcher in most cases is being called on to pitch a long outing. Miami’s three best relievers totaled 55 pitches last night. But Urena has had starters pitches all season long. While Jose Urena is 0-7 at home on the season his stats have been pretty good. A 4.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a .255 opponent batting average. He has thrown 86 pitches or better in six straight starts. That’s a sizable edge here for the Marlins. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-03-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals -107 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
918 Boston at Washington Johnson & Roark Brian Johnson owns a 4.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his career. He was once a highly thought of prospect but he’s never really panned out. Because of injuries the Red Sox were forced to promote him to the big leagues. He doesn’t figure into Boston’s future. Roark has a 3-9 record this year but a passable 4.10 ERA, his WHIP is 1.27. But his career has been a good one thus far with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He just hasn’t gotten much run support this year. Our numbers suggest Roark is 7% better than Johnson, with the Nationals bullpen having a whopping 26% advantage. The Nationals are also solid hitting against lefties, while Boston is 10% lower than league average against right handed starters. We have the host as a solid favorite here and the betting markets are giving us a cheap price. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-01-18 | Indians v. A's +121 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Oakland Clevenger & Montas Mike Clevenger has been terrific all year but he’s about to reach the same amount of MLB innings as he did last year in his rookie season. In fact, management was so worried about that fact that they pushed him back an extra day for rest. Starters are used to pitching every five days, so that little tweak may have an effect on his today. Frankie Montas isn’t a strikeout pitcher but he doesn’t have to be in this ballpark. He’s coming off a poor start but we expect him to bounce back strong today. The only real edge the Tribe has today is in the bullpen, but Miller continues to be out of action. Nice price on the host here as Oakland has beaten up on the Indians pitching staff in this series. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-30-18 | Pirates v. Padres -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
964 Pittsburgh at San Diego Williams & Lucchesi Nice edges across the board for the Padres, especially with the starters. We rate Lucchesi 17% better than Williams. The Padres bullpen is a whopping 16% stronger than that of the Pirates. Offensively neither team stands out but San Diego does have a 2% advantage. None of the key bullpen arms went yesterday for the Padres. This line should be much higher in our opinion. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -109 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
902 Washington at Philadelphia Fedde & Pivetta This is the second time in a week Erick Fedde has faced the Phillies. Last time out he had his longest start of the season going 6 full innings and allowing 3 earned runs. Philadelphia hit .318 against the young righty. Nick Pivetta has had a somewhat breakout season for the Phillies. He does have a 4-6 record with a 4.06 ERA. But he has 101 strikeouts in just 84.1 innings of work. He has been excellent at home with a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Twice this year he has permitted six earned runs in a game, one of those times was against this Nationals squad. So it’s a bit of a payback game for Pivetta. We rate the Philly righty 29% higher than Fedde. While the Nationals have a 7% better bullpen the offenses are equal. Huge starting pitcher edge here for the host puts us squarely on the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-28-18 | A's -103 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Detroit Manaea & Fulmer Sean Manaea started the year on fire including tossing a no-hitter. Then he regressed a bit and everyone lost interest. But he’s back to pitching well in his last three starts, going going 20.1 innings and allowing just 6 earned runs. Michael Fulmer had been thought of as a major building block for the Tigers. But he’s struggled this season and his name has been brought up in trade talk. Our ratings have Oakland better across the board with a 7% starting pitching edge, 3% relief advantage and 6% offensive edge. Detroit has struggled to step up against quality teams and this Athletics team is holding its own in the best division in baseball. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-27-18 | Rockies v. Giants -141 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
910 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Bumgarner Rare chance tp get an elite pitcher at home in this price range. The Giants are playing good ball right now and Madison is coming in off his best start in this injury shortened season. Bumgarner has been excellent at home in his career, allowing opposing batters to hit .216 this year, .228 last year, .198 in 2016 and .192 in 2015. We rate Mad Bum 19% better than Freeland. The bullpens are equal, but the Giants hot lefty starters 16% better than the Rockies do. Here we have a team catching its stride and having its ace on the mound. Cheap number we can take advantage of. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-26-18 | Reds +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
955 Cincinnati at Atlanta Harvey & Sanchez Having success in handicapping sports is very much like playing the stock market. You want to buy low and sell high. While we can’t fully back Harvey here in a buy low scenario, we are all in on selling Anibel Sanchez. The 13 year veteran has posted a 2.55 ERA on the season in 42.1 innings of work. If the season ended now it would be a career best season. But there is an excellent chance of regression with Sanchez. The past three seasons he has posted ERAs of 6.41, 5.87 and 4.99. That was over 415.2 innings of work. So basically we have ten times as much data saying he is a very poor pitcher at this stage of his career, as opposed to a single 42 inning sample size. We rate Harvey 6% better than Sanchez with the offenses being virtually equal. The Atlanta bullpen is better which is why the Braves are favored, along with home field advantage. But over the last month or so Atlanta has reverted back to the pack while the Reds have been surging. We can buy the Braves as a slight favorite here, but this line is just silly. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-25-18 | Padres +140 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
919 San Diego at Texas Lucchesi & Hamels Nice underdog price here with a Padres team that continues to be under the radar. Lucchesi is coming off the worst start of his career which led to a stint on the DL. But until that poor start which can be attributed to injury he had been outstanding. A major advantage is the way he hides the ball and his funky delivery, which should really be effective against an American League squad. Cole Hamels has had a nice bounce back year, but most of his success has been on the road. He’s 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA at home. We rate the Padres starter 23% stronger than Hamels, with last year really holding the lefty back. San Diego has a 5% advantage in the bullpen, while Texas does have a 7% hitting edge. But we expect the Rangers to struggle against an unfamiliar lefty, and the value is on the dog. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-24-18 | Marlins +157 v. Rockies | Top | 8-5 | Win | 157 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
961 Miami at Colorado Smith & Marquez This line is majorly inflated because of the getaway record for the Miami Marlins. Miami has really struggled in the last game of a series. But is that really a trend or just a small sample size? Keep in mind each series ends with a different starting pitcher on the hill. Each series is against a different team. It’s not like the coaching staff empties the bench in the final game of each series. Therefore we don’t respect this trend, while the linebackers do. That gives us a huge edge here in this number. Our analysis shows this to be a far more even game than the markets. We rate Caleb Smith at the better starter, with the offenses being equal. The big edge for the Rockies is the bullpen. Let’s take a look at German Marquez as of late. On the season he has a 7.45 ERA at home. In his last three overall starts has has permitted 15 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Does that should like someone you want to back in this price range? PLAY MIAMI |
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06-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +111 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
906 Arizona at Pittsburgh Greinke & Musgrove We backed the Diamondbacks last night and were finally rewarded in 13 innings. Today we look for the Pirates to rebound. Greinke has an enormous home/road split. Over the last two seasons Zack is 16-2 at home and only 7-10 when on the road. While win/loss records don’t mean as much as other advanced stats, the disparity is rather shocking. this season his home ERA is 2.40 while on the road it’s 5.66. We simply cannot back Arizona as a road favorite with his road numbers. Musgrove is coming off his worst effort of the season as Cincinnati pounded him. We expect a rebound effort. Arizona has the bullpen advantage, but other than that we like the Pirates in every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-22-18 | Diamondbacks -112 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
951 Arizona at Pittsburgh Corbin & Nova Patrick Corbin faces the Pirates 11 days ago and Pittsburgh pounded him hard. Now on the road with a 2.78 ERA and an undefeated record, we expect Corbin to get his revenge. We rate the Diamondbacks lefty 16% better than Ivan Nova. The Arizona bullpen is also better by 11%. Pittsburgh does have a 5% offensive edge. As the Arizona offense gets healthier the more we can expect the D’Backs to hit, and Nova is very hittable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-20-18 | Tigers v. Reds -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
972 Detroit at Cincinnati Fulmer & Mahle Michael Fulmer was once considered the ace of this Tigers program but he just hasn’t progressed. In his last seven starts he is posting a 4.76 ERA and he’s never been a guy who can beat you with the strikeout. We have him rated 15% below a league average hurler, which is very disappointing to the Tigers management. Tyler Mahle didn’t have the same early success as Fulmer, but he’s developed better than his American League competitor. In his last seven starts he’s allowed a 3.53 ERA. While Detroit is a pretty good pitchers park this Cincinnati venue is great for hitters. We rate the Reds 17% better offensively in this matchup as this team really does have some productive bats. Cheap number here in this afternoon affair. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-19-18 | Cardinals +110 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
903 St Louis at Philadelphia Weaver & Velasquez Great game last night as we were able to cash with the Phillies in extra innings. But we were impressed the way the Cardinals made a game of it. Luke Weaver has gotten better as the season has worn on, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last seven starts. But the main reason to play the Cards here is we want to go against Vince Velasquez when pitching at home. Last year he was 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home. This season he is even worse in Philadelphia with a 6.88 ERA. Most sports bettors want to back power pitchers, and for the most part we agree. Which is why we get a nice price with St Louis here. Let’s take the Cards in a game we expect the offense to explode. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-18-18 | Cardinals v. Phillies -102 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
952 St Louis at Philadelphia Mikolas & Pivetta Miles Mikolas has been very good this year but a main portion of his success is because of a home ERA of 1.68 on the season. As good as he has been we’ve been just as impressed with Nick Pivetta. He himself has an ERA of 3.13 at home this season with a 1.11 WHIP in Philadelphia. We rate the Phillies bullpen 18% better than that of the Cards. Philadelphia haas also hit 6% better at home vs righties as the Cards have done on the road vs right-handed starters. The last point of emphasis here in the Cardinals traveling after a Sunday Night Baseball game against the rival Cubs. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |