Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
308 Tampa Bay at New Orleans We’ve watched both of the previous meetings and it’s clear that this is a bad matchup for Tom Brady and the Bucs. He doesn’t have the ability to throw the ball long with accuracy against this defense. A stop unit very much superior to the Bucs defense. Drew Brees is much like Brady, in that he doesn’t have the arm strength. But he has been playing in this offense for years, and he never was a gun slinger. Teams that have beaten the opposition twice previously have won over 65% in this third meeting. The better team at home gets it done. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 48 m | Show | |
152 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Simply put the Steelers own the Browns. Big Ben has owned Cleveland in his career. Even Sunday in a game the Steelers played backups, the Browns really struggled to get the outright victory. This line will rise during the week, so let’s get this play in right now. |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-07-20 | Bills +1 v. 49ers | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show | |
485 Buffalo & San Francisco in Arizona This game is being played in Arizona because of the San Francisco lockdown. The 49ers still aren’t healthy and are getting too much credit for its win over the Rams. This coaching staff always looks good against the Rams, so it’s coming off what is an artificial high. In gambling, like in the stock market you want to buy low and sell high. Right now the 49ers are clearly priced high. The Bills have the better rating across the board, and are the healthier team. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 67 h 18 m | Show | |
261 Tampa Bay at Carolina While the per game numbers won’t support this play, other factors have to be considered. Tampa Bay has lost three games to teams with a combined 17-8 record. Carolina has won three games against teams with a combined 10-15 record. The Bucs completely laid an egg on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady has a 67% cover rate following a loss. And make no mistake that was an embarrassing loss to the Saints. There is a 63 point net differential between these teams and Carolina is just 1-3 straight up at home. The Panthers will also be without McCaffrey once again in this contest. The Bucs defense has been outstanding all season and played terrible just six days ago. We look for a statement win for the Bucs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -2.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
270 San Francisco at Seattle Despite the Seahawks having a half game lead over the Cardinals and Rams, this is an extremely important divisional game for the host. A loss here would make Seattle 0-2 in the division, while the Cardinals are 2-0 and the 49ers 2-1 with the victory. Seattle has a habit of playing to the competition which makes them a questionable big favorite. But in a close lined game we will put our trust in Russell Westbrook. San Francisco is getting healthier, but still has weaknesses that can be attacked. We like the chances of the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-01-20 | Patriots +3.5 v. Bills | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
255 New England at Buffalo Despite the records being 2-4 for the Pats and 5-2 for the Bills, Buffalo only has a 24 point plus/minus advantage on the season over the Patriots. With the Dolphins deciding to start a rookie quarterback the rest of this season, the Bills can really distance themselves from the rest of the division with a victory here. The most acclaimed coach in my lifetime has his back to the wall. New England is an underdog to a division rival in a do or die game for the Pats. This is a team that has dominated this division for years and years. We will take our chances on the visitor here. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
488 Green Bay at New Orleans When buying stocks you are told to buy low and sell high. When betting sports you make money by doing the exact same thing. Right now the Packers are 2-0 and have dominated the opposition. The two victories were against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams who also looked bad when not facing the Packers. Just a month ago everyone was looking to fade Green Bay because of all the positives from last season. They were down on the Packers draft. Now after playing two of the most disappointing teams in the early season, this team is taking money against the Saints in New Orleans? We tend to remember what we saw last and the Saints losing at Vegas is certainly in many peoples minds. But did New Orleans really look that bad? They dominated the Raiders in yards per play, but were penalized just about every time this team had a key play. This against a Raiders team known to lead the league in penalties each and every year. Not to start a controversy but the ref calls in that game were extremely strange, as if the league wanted the Raiders to come away with the win. That type of situation isn’t likely to help the Saints foe on Sunday. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns -7 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
472 Washington at Cleveland Extra practice time for the Browns who remain at home after outlasting the Bengals on Thursday. The Browns have produced 740 total yards the first two weeks. This offense is loaded and looked unstoppable on Thursday. Washington had just 239 yards in the opener against a banged up Philadelphia defense. The Washington football team did nothing against the Cards in the first half Sunday. We expect this number to rise through the key number of 7, let’s take advantage with this early release. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show | |
462 Las Vegas at New England Now that this line has been bet down it’s time to come in on the favored Pats. Short week for the Raiders off that highly emotional win over the Saints on Monday. A game in which the Raiders received every break possible from the refs. Carr had pointed to that contest as his coming out party and the offense sure looked good. But that defense was not impressive at all, as the Saints clearly did as they wanted from a yards per play aspect. New England has been terrific off a loss, a trademark of this regime. The Pats just played at a very tough venue and took the Seahawks to the wire. As much as we wish our new hometown team success, the Raiders looked better than they really are. Coaching advantage to the Pats, especially on defense. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
262 Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Less impressed by the Rams victory over the Cowboys than most, if we are to believe the line move in this one. Money has poured in on the visitor, despite the host getting healthier each and every day. The Eagles held the Redskins to 239 yards but 27 points. The Redskins had three drives start in Eagles territory as Philadelphia lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. Our preseason numbers like the Eagles much more than the Rams. Teams starting the season 0-1 have been golden when playing a 1-0 squad. The threat of an 0-2 start brings out the best of the winless team. Considering the Eagles are at home and have more talent puts us squarely on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -2.5 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 99 h 45 m | Show | |
142 Buffalo at Houston Buffalo played one of the easiest pass defense schedules in the country, and now take on what could be an explosive Texans pass offense. As of now Will Fuller on offense and JJ Watt defensively have not been cleared to play. But both players are expected to suit up this weekend. Looking at the Texans stats when those two players are on the field as opposed to off this season has been huge. To get Houston at home at less than a field goal, and with those two playing is one hell of a bargain. When they are announced in this line will rise to at least 3, with probably added juice. Word is both will be on the field, so we will grab this number now in anticipation of this number rising. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
118 Pittsburgh at Baltimore If these two teams were both playing its starters we would have made the Ravens likely a nine point favorite. But yet because of the must win factor the Steelers are a two point favorite. That’s a conservative 11 point swing because the Ravens are resting some starters. That’s a huge overreaction. Pittsburgh is playing with a third string quarterback that has really struggled as of late. Baltimore on the other hand has a backup veteran behind center, in an offense that should let him play to his best abilities. This is a heated rivalry and you know the Ravens players would love to knock the Steelers out of an playoff possibilities. It’s also a huge coaching mismatch in favor of the home underdog. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
104 Cleveland at Cincinnati These two teams met just three weeks ago and the Browns came away with a 27-19 home victory. But giving that game a closer look we see that the Bengals had 118 more yards, and fared better in the running game. Looking at game scores Cincinnati posted an 83.8 while Cleveland had a 75.5. The Browns are a dysfunctional squad that entered the season with great expectations. Now they are just playing out the string. Cincinnati on the other hand showed its heart by forcing the Dolphins to overtime last week in a huge comeback. Now that the worst record is clinched, we can see this team coming out this week fired up to end the season on a positive. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-15-19 | Vikings -1 v. Chargers | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
331 Minnesota at LA Chargers The Vikings have won more games on the road than the Chargers have at home this year. Many feel Minnesota will be a no show today because of the importance of the game next week against Green Bay. But we’ve yet to see the Vikings have a no show game under this coaching staff. The fans will be 75% Minnesota fans. The Chargers have already lost to Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Kansas City on this field. The only quality home win was against Green Bay. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers -4 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
310 Chicago at Green Bay The Bears are getting a great deal of credit for winning three straight games. But those contests were against the struggling Giants, Lions and Cowboys. The Green Bay defense held the Bears to 3 points in the first meeting, and have held all but two opponents under 26 points this season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
314 Houston at Tennessee Looking at average scores this season Houston is even while the Titans are +4. When looking at pure game scores the Titans are a half point better, and that’s with Marriota behind center for half the games. The Tennessee defense has permitted over 23 points just twice all season. All the hype has been unfounded on the Texans here. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-08-19 | Steelers v. Cardinals +1 | 23-17 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
154 Pittsburgh at Arizona With the win over Cleveland last week the Steelers have set themselves up as a probable wild card. Having just played three straight divisional games, with three AFC contests to end the season, this is by far the least important game remaining for Pittsburgh. The Steelers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road. In fact, the win over the Rams at home 17-12 is the only victory over a team with a current winning mark. Arizona is off a blowout loss to the Rams, and have dropped five straight heading into this contest. But the Cards have back to back possible wins with the Browns playing here next week. The Steelers have been getting quite lucky this year with a +11 turnover margin, as well as a 5-3 record in one score games. This is the week Pittsburgh falters. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
466 NY Jets at Cincinnati From a game grade standpoint the Bengals should be very slight favorites here. The Jets are feeling fat and happy with a three game winning streak and a blowout of the Oakland Raiders. But with winless Cincinnati and the Dolphins on deck, excuse us if we don’t trust New York here. Cincinnati has been competitive the past two weeks with losses by 6 and 7 points. With the remaining schedule the best chance for a win after today will be at Miami in week 16. Cincinnati is 0-6 on the season in games decided by one possession. These teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
272 Green Bay at San Francisco This number is really cheap based on the season to date outputs of both these squads. Looking at average game scores the Packers are 84.4 while the 49ers are 88.4. That would make San Francisco a significant favorite on a neutral. Add in home field advantage and we clearly see this line should be much closer to a 6. This is the third road game in four contests for the Packers, but Green Bay was off a bye week. San Francisco on the other hand will be at home for the third straight week. The next two games for the Niners are really tough with road games at Baltimore and New Orleans. While this is not a must win game for the host, it’s about as important as a game could be considering the remainder of the San Francisco schedule. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
470 New England at Philadelphia Many will want to back the Patriots off a loss followed by a bye week. Belichick has been solid off losses in his career, but this isn’t the same New England team that we have seen in the past. Besides the last three seasons the Pats are 0-3 ATS off the bye week, including a 1-2 SU record. The Pats have a solid lead in the division and play the next two games against non-conference foes. Those are the lowest priority games on the schedule. The Pats are permitting 4.7 ypc on the season, against a schedule that is extremely weak. Only Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Baltimore have winning records. New England is +17 turnovers on the year, the major reason why this team has a gaudy record. Philadelphia is getting healthier, and with the divisional race with the Cowboys, this game is much more important for the host. The Eagles should be able to run all over this Pats defense. And coming off a bye we know Philadelphia has had this game circled. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-10-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
253 Buffalo at Cleveland The Buffalo Bills have played one game away from home in the past seven weeks, a road game at Tennessee. The Bills have lowly Miami on deck, a team coming off its first and possibly only win of the season. Most teams rise up after a week of off field controversy, but not the Browns. This team is so dysfunctional it has raised the stakes to a whole new level. We want no part of this club right now, and are surprised the team has been made the favorite here. To make matters worse the Browns have a short week ahead before clashing with hated rival Pittsburgh on Thursday. Wrong team favored in this one. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -2 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
262 Philadelphia at Buffalo The Eagles only wins have come against 1 win Washington, 1 win NY Jets and the Packers in a game it lost the yardage battle by 155. This team simply cannot protect the quarterback as Wentz just doesn’t have time to look downfield. That makes it easy on this Buffalo defense who can flood the box. Buffalo’s only loss on the season was to undefeated New England in a game it outgained the Pats by 151 yards. That looks really impressive now based on what the Pats have done this season. If Philadelphia can’t be competitive last week against Dallas, how can we expect this offense to move the ball on Buffalo. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
473 Philadelphia at Dallas Second of three straight road games for the Eagles off a loss at Minnesota. While Philadelphia slowly gets healthy the Cowboys are suffering several key injuries including two offensive linemen and its best receiver. Without a healthy Amari Cooper this passing game has been a disaster. Dallas started the season on fire as the new offensive coordinator looked like a huge upgrade. But this imaginative offense early on has become increasingly stagnant. What looked like impressive wins over the Giants, Redskins and Miami, now look much worse as those teams are among the worst in the league. The Cowboys are 18-30 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett. The Eagles have a huge coaching edge here and are playing with triple revenge in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
452 Arizona at New York Giants The Cardinals offense still hasn’t performed as expected by the new coaching staff. Despite getting a returning player in the defensive backfield we just don’t believe in this Arizona stop unit. New York has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. With several key players returning for the Giants this line surprises us. We were expecting something a couple points higher. Maybe playing Cincinnati and Atlanta, as opposed to Minnesota and New England has the betting markets fooled. We will take advantage of that and back the better team at home with extra rest. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
454 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans sure have a lot of new backers after edging the Chiefs last week. But we are not one of them. This is still a team that struggles to protect the quarterback. And Frank Reich and company have really been able to get to DeShaun Watson. This is the second straight road game for Houston, who have just one winning road season under Bill O’Brien. The Colts are on a bye week after beating the Chiefs themselves in a more impressive game just two weeks ago. Indy is 7-3 SU at home under Reich and matches up well with the Texans. Indy is 3-1 the past two seasons against Houston despite only having a combined 11-17 record against the rest of the league. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
458 Jacksonville at Carolina Surprised by the line movement on this game as we have the Panthers as the higher rated squad. Just from an average game grade Carolina is two points better, which should make this line a bargain at the current price. The Panthers are an improved offense when you take away the games started by the injured Cam Newton. He didn’t have the ability to throw down field or use his legs. By taking out those contests the Panthers are an even bigger favorite here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -5.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
459 Minnesota at NY Giants The Vikings have an average game score of 83 on the road, but that was against the much improved Packers defense, and the reigning #1 stop unit of the Bears. We all know Kirk Cousins struggles against winning teams, but now he gets to face the easiest opponent of the season. The Giants have gotten new life with the change at quarterback, but after facing the defenses of Tampa Bay and Washington, this is a huge upgrade. Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the ball, and are a solid road favorite play in the Mike Zimmer regime. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-06-19 | Bills +3 v. Titans | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
469 Buffalo at Tennessee This Buffalo defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. The last two meetings with the Titans resulted in 13-12 and 14-13 victories for Buffalo. Based on the weakness of these offenses, we can see a similar outcome here. We simply want no part of this Tennessee offense facing the type of pressure the Bills bring. This is the best stop unit Marriota and company have faced this year. We expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY BUFFALO |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Panthers +4.5 v. Texans | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
251 Carolina at Houston Carolina has had a productive offense this season, despite the starting QB being limited because of injury. Now with a healthy backup behind center we look for the Panthers to build on its success last week. Defensively the Panthers are 2nd in the league in yards per play. They are especially strong defensing the pass, allowing just 166 yards per game through the air. Offensively Houston struggles to protect Watson, allowing a sack rate just short of 13% every time he goes back to pass. That’s 30th in the league. The Texans have been terrible stopping the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry. We feel the Panthers are the better team, and have proven themselves away from home. This is a more than fair number we will take advantage of. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
451 Green Bay at Chicago The Packers were a 7.4 pythagorean win team a year ago. That was with Mike McCarthy who was finally fired by Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers played with an injured knee all season. Between his improved health and a fresh offensive play calling outlook, we expect much better things from the Packers. Green Bay was 27th in the league in play-action passes a year ago. That number will rise significantly with the coaching change. Chicago had an 11.5 pythagorean win team last year. The Bears lost Vic Fangio after the season which should have an affect on that terrific defense from a year ago. This team was 20th in offensive DVOA and opponents will be more prepared for the running of Mitch Trubisky. The Packers have this game circled after not making the playoffs last two years, and the Bears are considered the class of the division. A solid handicapping angle for the opening week also puts us on the divisional road dog here. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
314 New England at Kansas City This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
312 LA Rams at New Orleans Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
302 Indianapolis at Kansas City Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback. Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
104 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-30-18 | Browns +6.5 v. Ravens | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
315 Cleveland at Baltimore Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. While the Ravens need a victory to make the playoffs, the Browns have their own motivation. With a win Cleveland can end the season with a winning record, something that didn’t look possible under the previous coach. When looking at stats for the past six weeks it’s the Browns, not the Ravens who have been the slightly better team. This game should be decided by a field goal either way. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins +6 v. Bills | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Miami at Buffalo Money continues to pour in on the Bills, as many feel the warm blooded Dolphins will simply throw in the towel and not mentally show up in Buffalo. But keep in mind these are professionals and more importantly divisional rivals. This line has risen at least two points based on something that is based on hearsay. Let’s take a look at home the Dolphins have done going north the last two games of the season. Over the last decade Miami is 8-2 ATS traveling to a cold weather climate, 7-2 ATS when playing that game outside a dome. Buffalo has been better than many thought, but not to the extent of this number. The Bills may in fact win, but the cover is seriously in doubt. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars +7 v. Texans | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
313 Jacksonville at Houston Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. Jacksonville’s defense has been outstanding for most of the season. And now Bortles the much more mobile quarterback is back behind center. It’s clear that the Jags have had offensive line problems all season, with a mobile QB behind center Jacksonville should find yards earlier to come by. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-23-18 | Giants +10 v. Colts | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
111 NY Giants at Indianapolis The Giants have been one of the best road underdogs for years. Now with Indy fighting for the playoffs the line is inflated. Playing against teams that need to win is a great way to increase your bankroll near the end of the season. Nobody wants the Giants here, which is why the value is on the dog. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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12-23-18 | Packers v. Jets +3 | 44-38 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
118 Green Bay at New York Jets Rodgers is expected to play but it’s clear he’s not himself. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and yet the markets haven’t caught up to the 2018 Packers. The Jets have played much better as of late and are a dangerous home dog. We expect this line to go down towards game time. We expect the outright home dog winner. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-23-18 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
119 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
124 Baltimore at LA Chargers Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career. We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
332 New Orleans at Carolina Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense. New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets +7 | 29-22 | Push | 0 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
304 Houston at NY Jets The Texans have been overrated for most of the season as the advanced stats don’t agree with the game outcomes. We took advantage of that knowledge last week as we backed the Colts, and we will do so once again here. This team has big named players, but as a whole rates as an average NFL squad. The Jets aren’t world beaters but they are a team that knows it needs to, play its best ball to compete. With a touchdown home underdog that’s exactly what we are looking for. We will take the generous points in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
301 Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Finally, finally get a quality game on the Thursday card. We’ve talked all season about home non-divisional teams having a huge advantage, but the media just looks at the overall numbers. The vast majority of home success comes from the two opponents not knowing each other well. That’s not the case with divisional rivals who play each other twice a year. While Andy Reid is clearly the better coach, having this game on Thursday actually hurts the Chiefs, as it cuts down on his ability to put in a full game plan. There is also the situation of Kansas City going to overtime Sunday, and playing on a short week. Without getting into specifics, it’s a really poor point spread proposition. We saw last week how a team without a passing game can beat these Chiefs, the Chargers have the ability to beat you through the air and on the ground. And we all know Los Angeles has the clearly better defense. Let’s get this one out now as we expect this line to move come game day. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | 20-26 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 2 m | Show | |
109 Carolina at Cleveland Ron Rivera has taken over the defense and he’s always been very aggressive in his play calling. Therefore we expect a lot of blitzing from the Panthers, which should really give Baker Mayfield problems. The Browns rookie has been very comfortable when in a clean pocket, but his numbers have really gone down under pressure. The Panthers are in a must win situation here while the Browns continue to try to turn this franchise around. Cheap number on the visitor. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
107 Indianapolis at Houston While you rarely find point spread value on a team in a must win situation, the Colts have plenty of value here. While Houston stands at 9-3 on the season with a comfortable three game divisional lead, the Colts are 6-6 and sit right out of the wildcard playoff spot. The last time these two met the Colts had this game sandwiched between the champion Eagles and the former champion Patriots. That matchup with Houston was won by the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. But the Colts are playing much better ball since, and while the Texans have run off eight straight victories, the wins have not been impressive. The Texans so far this season have played just two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. The Patriots opening week and the Cowboys in game five. In fact, as of right now the Texans don’t play another team that is currently in the playoffs the rest of the year. The Colts are just as good as this Houston team but Indy hasn’t had the same type of luck. We prefer Frank Reich to Bill O’Brien anytime, and the Texans come into this game fat and happy. Great time to grab the Colts. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
379 Washington at Philadelphia Redskins are getting healthier by the week while the Eagles continue to play short handed, especially in the defensive backfield. When looking at the year to date numbers it’s clear that this line is too high. If you would just look at these stats from a Team A and Team B standpoint, and disregarded the team names, the dog would be a clear play. With the Skins being overlooked we will gladly take the points with the nearly equal team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
376 Minnesota at New England The Vikings are coming off its two most important games of the season against Chicago and Green Bay, with a Monday Night Football contest at Seattle on deck. This non-conference affair is the least important game on the remaining schedule. Rhodes was injured last time out and he’s the glue of this defense, he says he is going to play but the doctors aren’t in agreement. Even if he goes he will not be the same player as we have come to expect. New England is by far the best December team in the league. Year in and year out this team gets better as the season goes along. There is also a major positive trend of New England laying less than a touchdown at home. The Pats came off a bye last week to face the Jets, and have lowly Miami on deck. This is a great spot for the host. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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12-02-18 | Bills +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
361 Buffalo at Miami The Bills have been considered the worst team in the league for much of this season. But now with a dual threat quarterback behind center this team is on the rise. After back to back victories over the Jets and Jags, this is a confident bunch. The defense is one of the best units in the league, and now doesn’t have to carry the weight of the offense. Miami won three straight games to start the season, but have dropped 6 of 8 since. One of those victories went to overtime and the other was a seven point home win over the Jets. Miami has a nice home advantage early in the season when the weather in southern Florida is hot and muggy, that’s not the case this time of year. Over the last five years Miami is just 4-10-1 ATS its last three home games of the season. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
359 Cleveland at Houston Obviously the Browns have been a much better team after making the coaching changes. So you can dismiss most of the year to date stats. This is a team that has stockpiled high draft picks and is an up and coming team. Houston on the other hand is playing on a short week after a statement win over Tennessee on Monday Night Football. Not to mention the winning streak the Texans are on. With Indianapolis, the Jets on Sunday Night Football, and visiting the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on deck, this is a major flat spot in the schedule for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -120 | 153 h 33 m | Show |
457 Minnesota at Chicago Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer. After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
470 Oakland at Arizona Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Seattle Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
258 Washington at Tampa Bay This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-04-18 | Packers +5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate. The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
261 Seattle at Detroit The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late. Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite. PLAY SEATTLE |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here. Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
470 New Orleans at Baltimore The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
276 Kansas City at New England The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season. I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers. This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 3 m | Show |
261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series. While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 138 h 59 m | Show |
467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays. The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -5.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
466 Miami at Cincinnati The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range. Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 50 m | Show | |
261 NY Jets at Jacksonville Extra time to prepare for the Jets who let one slip away Thursday against the Browns. While New York lost that game 21-17 keep in mind it had a -3 turnover disadvantage. So the Jets failed to cover by a single point while turning the ball over three times more than the Browns. New York has outscored the opposition 77-58 despite being -1 in turnover differential and -5 in sacks differential. When looking at successful play percent New York is averaging 47.3% while allowing just 39.7%. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team in this price range. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the season with wins over the Giants and Patriots. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league. The defense has been stout as always but the offense has been a disappointment. The Jets have won 20 games combined the last three seasons, but are a perfect 2-0 against the Jags. Winning last year as a 3 1/2 point underdog in overtime, and in 2015 28-23. Jacksonville has played three disappointing teams this season, the Jets have a better future than any of them. PLAY NY JETS |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 114 h 17 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Chicago The Bucs continue to put points on the board, but is this team a bit overrated because of that offensive success? Keep in mind Tampa Bay is traveling on a short week after the supposed statement game Monday night against the Steelers. The defense has allowed 91 points to three teams that have not met preseason expectations. The Bucs have permitted an average of 54.3% successful plays, so what the offense produces the defense more than surrenders. The Bears are 2-1 on the season with the lone loss being the opening week fold job against the Packers. The Chicago defense has been nothing but outstanding thus far. Allowing just 18.3 points per game and holding the opposition to just 39% successful plays. Mitch Trubisky is catching a lot of flak, but the teams offense isn’t bad at all. Much better defense gets the cover here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-30-18 | Bengals +5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 88 h 9 m | Show | |
255 Cincinnati at Atlanta Really like the way these Bengals have started the season. Cincinnati has won the early down success rate in all three games, 79-54%, 79-68% and 84-74% last week. When looking at play success rate this team has produced 52.7% offensively, while allowing 50.3%. The Falcons are just 12-20 ATS as a home favorite going back to the 2012 season. This home field edge isn’t nearly as big as you were led to believe. Despite playing 2 of 3 games at home this year, the Falcons are permitting 50.7% of opponent plays to be successful, while producing just 47.7%. This is the third straight home game for the Falcons, which usually results in a higher scoring game. That said we prefer the visitor in this matchup better. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
102 Minnesota at LA Rams Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason. The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
484 Chicago at Arizona The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
473 Oakland at Miami Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
302 NY Jets at Cleveland The Jets took advantage of a tell from Matt Stafford in the opener and won big on Monday Night Football. Then on a short week had to host a division rival and didn’t have the same success against the Dolphins. Now on another short week the team travels to Cleveland. The Browns remain winless but managed to cover both games, against far tougher opponents than the Jets have faced. To hold the Steelers and Saints to 21 points each in a total of nine quarters is impressive. The short week will expose the Jets rookie QB, as no additional plays will be able to be added to the playbook. This gives the Cleveland defense plenty of chances to force turnovers, which it has in abundance the first two games. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-16-18 | Lions +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
281 Detroit at San Francisco Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
273 Miami at NY Jets Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team. The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
263 Carolina at Atlanta The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years. Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-16-18 | Vikings -2 v. Packers | 29-29 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
265 Minnesota at Green Bay We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 691 h 7 m | Show | |
456 San Francisco at Minnesota No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back. Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early. PLAY MINNESOTA |