Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-13-15 | Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
481 Tennessee at Tampa Bay |
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09-13-15 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 56 m | Show |
468 Cleveland at NY Jets Both teams have solid defenses in which to lean on in the early going as the offenses lag behind. But while the Jets have improved offensively and will only get better, the Browns could be one of the most inept offensive teams in league history. Led by a QB that posted a 1-10 record for Tampa Bay last year as a starter, and a listing of no names at the skill positions. The Browns don’t have a breakaway player anywhere at wide receiver or running back and the line can only do so much to keep the quarterback upright. The Jets have two of the best corners in all of football and they will have a big advantage against these Cleveland wideouts. The Jets bolstered an already solid defense in the offseason and the offense is much better than a year ago. Fitzpatrick has his flaws but with a defense like what he has now he doesn’t need to make plays to keep his team in the game. We were very surprised to see this line open where it has considering the average home field value in the NFL is roughly the same as this line. So the betting public is telling us on a neutral field this teams would be even. But let’s look at the season win numbers for both these squads. The Jets are listed at 7.5 while the Browns are at 6.0. While we do feel Cleveland is in a tougher division, the season win numbers clearly point to the Jets being the better team. We firmly agree which is why we are making the Jets our Best Bet for the opening week of the NFL season.PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -100 | 195 h 33 m | Show |
102 New England & Seattle |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
304 Indianapolis at New England |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. New England Patriots | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
111 Baltimore at New England In past years we were chomping at the bit to bet against Joe Flacco on the road. His home/road dichotomy was enormous. But that hasn’t been the case this year, especially as of late. Under the coaching of Kubiak, Flacco has become a weapon away from home. He has picked it up in playoff action posting a 13 to 0 TD to INT ratio his last five playoff games. While the Ravens do have some concerns in the defensive backfield, the offense should be able to move the ball well against this Patriot defense. Baltimore is in a familiar position of playing on the road in the playoffs, and the Ravens have excelled in that regard. Especially when playing in New England.The Patriots are where they expected to be before the season, with home field advantage in the playoffs. But New England got to play a weak divisional schedule as every team other than Buffalo was down this season. Miami looked good early but faltered late, and the Jets were just horrible. The Patriots have the edge with the extra week to prepare, and we all know about the coaching staff. But New England hasn’t been a money maker in the playoffs as of late and the Ravens have an excellent sideline mentor of their own.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +6.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
105 Arizona at Carolina Nobody is giving Arizona a shot in this game as the line has steadily risen since hitting the board. True, this isn’t the same Cardinals team with a third string quarterback, but we still don’t trust a Carolina squad who ended the season playing patsies. Teams who enter the playoffs having lost its previous two games have been a consistent money maker. And its a given that the Cardinals are the better coached team. While Carolina has played better down the stretch we still can’t see there being much differential between these two clubs. Arizona played the tougher schedule which is a good indicator of success in this round. We are willing to back the Cards here to take this one to the wire with a good chance of an outright victory. PLAY ARIZONA Opinion Baltimore |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 53 h 50 m | Show | |
126 Buffalo at Oakland |
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12-21-14 | Atlanta Falcons +6 v. New Orleans Saints | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
113 Atlanta at New Orleans |
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12-21-14 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
116 New England at NY Jets |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
107 Minnesota at Miami |
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12-14-14 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 66 h 20 m | Show |
312 Houston at Indianapolis |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 28 m | Show | |
163 Tampa Bay at Detroit |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals -1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 18-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
469 Arizona at Atlanta Cheap number to lay here with the far better squad. Arizona finds ways to win while the Falcons find ways to lose. Looking at stats it’s hard to see how the Cardinals have amassed such a strong record. But that’s why we can find value on them at less than a field goal. Arizona doesn’t dazzle. They don’t have a high flying offense like a Green Bay or New England. What this team does do is play quality defense and not turn the ball over. The exact opposite of the Atlanta Falcons.Matt Ryan and company do not take care of the football and the defense has allowed season highs to more than one team this year. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 4-7 on the season, with all four wins coming against divisional opponents. The same division that has co-leaders of the Falcons and Saints at three games under 500. Arizona is 3-2 on the road with the losses coming at the two Super Bowl participants from last year. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-27-14 | Chicago Bears +7 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
305 Chicago at Detroit Can’t trust the Lions here laying a full touchdown considering the current state of the team. The defense which was terrific early on is starting to regress. Injuries to key personnel has limited the once mighty pass rush, as was witnessed last week as New England threw the ball with impunity. On offense the Lions have been stagnant for most of the season as the coaching staff has pulled back the reigns on a mistake prone signal caller.Chicago has supreme offensive talent that just hasn’t lived up to the hype. The QB is very mistake prone, but with the Lions inability to get to the quarterback lately should give the Bears offense a spark. Chicago has improved defensively after the back to back 50 point implosions. With Megatron clearly not the same player because of injuries we can’t see the Lions taking advantage. We see this game coming down to one possession which gives us a nice edge with the dog.PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
476 Pittsburgh at Tennessee The Steelers have been extremely inconsistent this season which is what you would expect from a mediocre football team. The advantage for the Steelers is it plays in a division with other middle of the road squads. The Pittsburgh defense is downright bad but it’s been masked by virtually an entire schedule of weak scoring units. Outside of the division Pittsburgh has played Carolina, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Houston and the NY Jets. The only quality offense faced was Indianapolis and the Colts scored 34 points against this Steeler defense. Tennessee doesn’t rate highly offensively either but what they do have is a coach who is well aware of this team. He was passed over when the club hired Mike Tomlin. This is also the Super Bowl game for the Titans, playing on MNF and not playing in the postseason. Home dogs aren’t what they used to be in Monday Night Football games but we feel this one has some serious bite.PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
473 New England at IndianapolisIn what is sure to be a high scoring game we will take the veteran signal caller to do what is necessary to gain the victory. The last five games the Patriots are averaging more than 40 points per game, as the return of Gronkowski has taken this offense to another level. The amazing part of the recent offensive success is that it has come at the expense of very good defenses. The Bears are the only weak stop unit New England has faced as of yet and tonights opponent isn’t known for its defense. This is also the first game all season in a dome for New England as all the offensive damage has been done outdoors. Indy will put up points as they always do but when a defensive stop needs to be made we trust the Pats to get it done.PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
254 Miami at Detroit |
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11-09-14 | Tennessee Titans +10 v. Baltimore Ravens | 7-21 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
259 Tennessee at Baltimore |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
474 Indianapolis at NY Giants Must win game for the Giants who entered the bye week off back to back losses to division foes Dallas & Philadelphia. The extra week of preparation should do wonders as Manning and company continue to master this new offense. In the Coughlin era the Giants are 3-0 on Monday Night Football winning by an average margin of 15 points per game. With Seattle, San Francisco and Dallas on deck, the Giants cannot afford to drop this home game if New York has any intention of postseason play.Indy on the other hand has an extremely easy slate of games to end the season. After a bye next week the Colts have the likes of Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Washington and Tennessee on tap. With New England and Dallas likely being the toughest games remaining, the Colts don’t have the same urgency as the host. PLAY NY GIANTS |
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11-02-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Cleveland Browns | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
455 Tampa Bat at Cleveland |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +3 | 28-10 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
302 New Orleans at Carolina |
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10-26-14 | Oakland Raiders +7 v. Cleveland Browns | 13-23 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 5 m | Show | |
273 Oakland at Cleveland |
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10-26-14 | Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans +3 | 30-16 | Loss | -100 | 38 h 53 m | Show | |
266 Houston at Tennessee |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 51 m | Show | |
268 Baltimore at Cincinnati |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 22-21 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
251 Detroit & Atlanta in London |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
459 Seattle at St Louis |
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10-12-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | 37-37 | Loss | -101 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
264 Carolina at Cincinnati |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
260 Green Bay at Miami |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 37-22 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 30 m | Show | |
266 New England at Buffalo |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets v. San Diego Chargers -6.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 40 m | Show |
474 NY Jets at San Diego The Jets have a solid defensive front but the secondary has major problems. That’s not a good sign considering the Chargers don't rely on running the football. San Diego throws downfield and uses the short passing game to make up for a lack of a running attack. That bodes well in this one by taking away the best part of this Jets team.Huge edge in coaching and quarterbacks here and the Jets coast to coast travel adds to the New York problems. The Jets continue to find ways to lose games while the Chargers are looking like a real contender here. Very surprised this game is lined less than a touchdown.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
263 Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh NFL handicapping 101 says to play on a team after a terrible performance and fade a squad off a great game. That’s even magnified when one of the teams played on national television. Tampa Bay gave up 56 points last week to the Falcons after allowing just 20 and 19 the first two games of the season. The quarterback injury isn’t a huge concern as Glennon has started many times in this backfield. Pittsburgh put up 37 on Carolina who had no offensive answer with major injuries to the running attack. Those RB & QB injuries made the Panthers one dimensional which played into the Steelers hands. Pittsburgh suffered some major defensive injuries in that game and Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been overly successful when healthy in the early going. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-21-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Carolina Panthers -3 | 37-19 | Loss | -113 | 34 h 56 m | Show | |
478 Pittsburgh at Carolina |
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09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 v. Washington Redskins | 10-41 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
255 Jacksonville at Washington Over the last ten regular season games played between these two squads it’s clear that the wrong team is favored here. Not only do the Jaguars have a much better record, but the future is clearly higher for the Florida squad. Jacksonville even in times in which the team lacked competitive talent, always gave a full effort. The same cannot be said of the team from the nation’s capital. The Jaguars have a large edge in special teams here that isn’t being factored into the line. The kicker and the special teams as a whole have the ability to decide this game that likely comes down to the wire. Washington has one of the weakest home field edges in the league while Jacksonville is better on the road than at home. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | 30-7 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
262 New England at Minnesota |
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09-14-14 | Arizona Cardinals +1 v. NY Giants | Top | 25-14 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show |
259 Arizona at NY Giants Short week for both these squads but the Cardinals new offense showed some signs in the second half against the Chargers. The same cannot be said of the Giants. New York was facing a very young secondary and yet could not exploit the Lions by throwing downfield. Without that ability it’s hard to see Eli Manning and company having any success here. The Giants refuse to open the field and that running game won’t have success against this Arizona front seven. We expect the visitor to go off the favorite in this game so we are releasing this one early.PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
102 Pittsburgh at Baltimore Nice setup here for the Ravens who are already 0-1 in the division trailing both rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. While it’s hard to imagine a must win situation in the second week, this is about as close as it gets for the Ravens. Whenever any of the three AFC North contenders play it’s important to not lay over three if possible, as many times these games come down to a field goal. In fact, the last five games between these two have been decided by exactly three points. With the short week of preperation the home teams have a major edge, especially if it played the prior week at home. That’s the situation we have here with Baltimore off a home loss and the Steelers off a tough home victory. The Ravens are fully focused off a bad performance while the Steelers are happy to escape the Browns with a last second victory. Now with less time to prepare because of travel we can see the Steelers coming up on the short end of the scoreboard here.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
474 Cincinnati at Baltimore |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
101 Seattle & Denver in New Jersey
Keeping this analysis concise as the real money to be made in this game is in the props. Defense wins Super Bowls and we have the best defense in the league at an underdog price. Seattle played the much tougher schedule by beating San Francisco twice, New Orleans twice and Carolina. This is a team that has gone nine straight games without allowing more than 20 points to any opponent. Only once all season has an opponent surpassed 24 points against the Seahawks. Denver has had a terrific season and this offense has been outstanding but this team is overrated coming into the big game. The public likes offense and personalities and the Broncos have two of the best. But keep in mind that the only teams Denver played that made the playoffs that they didn |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
117 San Diego at Denver
Against Top 10 power rated teams this year San Diego has gone 2-1 straight up winning against Indianapolis while splitting against these Broncos. Denver on the other hand is just 1-3 straight up splitting against San Diego and losing to both Indianapolis and New England. San Diego has lost just one road game by more than today |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | 22-43 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
113 Indianapolis at New England
The Colts are 5-2 against teams that made the playoffs, the Patriots just 2-2. We |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
107 San Francisco at Green Bay
Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
316 Philadelphia at Dallas
This line was Dallas -2 1/2 before the news of Tony Romo not playing hit the airways. Now the line has moved 9 1/2 points with Kyle Orton behind center. There is no way the drop off is anywhere near that number, and we have always been Tony Romo supporters. Orton has plenty of NFL starts on his resume so the difference between him and Romo is just a fraction of the number we are seeing here. In fact, in some ways the Cowboys could be at an advantage. Dallas has been able to run the ball well most of the season but they tend to get away from the ground game. Now with Orton behind center we can see Dallas sticking with their bread and butter for longer stretches. That means less time on the field for the Dallas defense which is their biggest trouble spot by far. The Eagles are coming off a blowout nationally televised victory over the Bears. Their stock couldn |
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12-29-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 v. Indianapolis Colts | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
313 Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Week 17 handicapping in our eyes is all about value. Teams that are in must win situations are going to be overpriced. Teams with nothing to play for are going to be undervalued. Unlike college football where many teams throw in the towel late in the season, these are professionals who are playing for a paycheck. Therefore we are able to take advantage of line value going against the grain in the final week. The Colts can clinch a first round buy with a win here coupled with a New England loss and a Cincinnati loss or tie. Both the Patriots and Bengals are roughly 7 point favorites so for both of those teams to lose is a long shot. Yet the lookahead line on this game a week ago was roughly 5 to 6 points less than the current number as of this writing. Chances are Indy wins this game but to expect them to win by a margin may be too much to ask. The Jaguars have played much better ball the second half of the season and this team doesn |
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 140 h 47 m | Show |
104 New Orleans at Carolina
Getting this play out now because we feel this line will rise. Quick revenge game here for the Panthers who lost at New Orleans in a prime time affair 31-13 just two weeks ago. That loss broke an eight game Carolina winning streak and is the lone loss for the Panthers in the last ten games. That 31 points allowed by Carolina in that game is a full touchdown more than this team has yielded in any other game this season. The Panthers are 6-1 straight up at home this year with every victory coming by 4 points or more. The lone loss was all the way back in the opening week when Seattle won 12-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road this year but wins at Tampa Bay and Atlanta have been less than impressive. Earlier New Orleans won at Chicago and lost in dramatic fashion at New England, but it |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
332 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Three of the last five meetings in Pittsburgh have been losses by margins of 28, 16 and 17 points for the Bengals. In 2009 Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh here 18-12 and the Steelers swept Cincinnati the following year, outscoring them 50-28. Last year Cincinnati pulled off the upset once again with a 13-10 victory. As good as this Bengals team has been at home this year they are nothing special away from Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are 3-4 SU on the road but only one victory was larger than a field goal. Now that the Steelers will be sitting on the playoff sideline for the second straight year, many will feel this team will throw in the towel for the remainder of the season. Those with that thought obviously haven |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
328 Kansas City at Oakland
The Chiefs have averaged 16.8 points per game the last five meetings in Oakland with one of those contests going into overtime. Last year Kansas City was shut out here 15-0. Until a 24-7 victory earlier this year in Arrowhead the Chiefs had failed to cover 5 of the 6 previous overall meetings. After facing divisional rivals Denver twice and San Diego the Chiefs took advantage early against Washington last week and looked very impressive. But keep in mind that Andy Reid knows the Redskins very well from many years at Philadelphia, the Chiefs had a big advantage in that game. Because of the blowout win the game has been adjusted 1 1/2 points from the look ahead lines two weeks ago. Kansas City |
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show | |
305 Washington at Atlanta
The Falcons are back home after playing 5 of 7 games away from Atlanta. This is a team that has lost 9 of 11 games in straight up fashion. The two victories coming in overtime against Buffalo and against winless at the time Tampa Bay. Going back to preseason the Falcons are 3-14 SU but are laying a full touchdown here. A team that was the number one seed in the NFC Playoffs a season ago. A team that has a 0.1 yards per play advantage in this game. With a less than enthusiastic home crowd how can this line be a full touchdown? Washington is playing lousy football and there is turmoil in the locker room. But the same thing was said about the Dolphins over a month ago and look how that has turned out. The switch at quarterback moved this line a full 1 1/2 points away from the Redskins. Why is the quarterback change a negative? Under RGIII the Skins have scored an average of 12.3 points per game the last four contests. The change at QB isn |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
142 Carolina at New Orleans
The Saints own the yards per play advantage 0.6 to 0.2 while the Panthers have the points per play edge .15 to .07. Carolina defends the run well but that |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
156 Seattle at San Francisco
Stop the season now and put the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. That |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
144 Detroit at Philadelphia
Not the greatest of situations here for a domed team playing in what is expected to be 30 degree weather with rainstorms. Detroit has long struggled on the divisional road in cold cities like Green Bay and Chicago. In fact, the Lions are 1-11 straight up the last six years in those spots. Philadelphia weather isn |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams +8 v. San Francisco 49ers | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
441 St Louis at San Francisco
The Rams are playing their best ball of the season now that the running game has improved. The last four weeks St Louis has produced 258, 140, 160 and 200 yards on the ground. Despite the loss in the first meeting this season, the Rams had covered the previous three contests by a combined 27 1/2 points. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road dog under Jeff Fisher who has always been known as a terrific underdog coach. After the 35-11 embarrassment in the first meeting we expect this club to be well prepared for this divisional rival. Short week for the Niners who looked terrific on Monday Night Football. Handicapping 101 says if a team looked good on MNF they will be overpriced the following week. With San Francisco off a MNF affair, a major showdown at New Orleans and a huge home contest against Carolina, this is a letdown spot for the the 49ers. It doesn |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +2.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
232 Denver at New England
While there is no doubt the Broncos aren |
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. NY Giants | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
229 Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys are coming out of the bye week off a blowout loss at New Orleans. This is a team that has lost just twice all season by more than 3 points. Much will be made of the first meeting between these two when the Giants held a 147 yard advantage but lost because of a major turnover disadvantage. But Dallas did create those turnovers and the Cowboys took advantage. New York has the superior yards per play advantage but most of that is because New York trailed badly in their games and had to pass the ball while the opposition looked to run the clock. Dallas has a huge edge in the points per play category as they are far more efficient. The Giants have won four straight games but they beat the likes of Minnesota, Philadelphia, Oakland and Green Bay. While the defense has played better against back-up quarterbacks the offense still has major concerns. We feel the Cowboys are the better team catching points and they have that extra week to prepare. The Giants remain fraudulent and the four wins are all questionable. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
Kansas City at Denver
Much has been said about the Chiefs easy schedule, but Denver has faced just one team (Indy) with a current winning record. BTW the Broncos lost that game. These teams have played four of the same opponents: Dallas, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Oakland. Both teams are 4-0 with the Chiefs winning by 52 points and the Broncos winning by 69 points. Kansas City continues to find ways to win and the cold Denver night time weather is a concern for Payton's ankle problems. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19-22 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
227 Miami at Tampa Bay
This is a football game with a great deal of volatility. We have the Miami Dolphins who have been under the media microscope all week long taking on the only winless team in the NFL. This is the type of game that can make you look brilliant or like a complete moron. Despite the circumstances we feel we have the clear pointspread winner, and we are stepping out on MNF for just the third time this season. First of all let |
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
226 Dallas at New Orleans
Just don |
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -2 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
222 Houston at Arizona
Let |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
206 Philadelphia at Green Bay
Simply put this is a classic injury overreaction in the betting marketplace. Aaron Rodgers goes down early on Monday Night Football and the Packers were not prepared. After all, the back-up from a year ago Graham Harrell only took four snaps last season. Now with six days to prepare and a logjam atop the NFC North standings, you know the rest of the Green Bay roster will be paying special attention to the game plan. Until last Monday the Packers had gone 29-2 SU at home dating back to the 2009 season. The three wins this year were by margins of 18, 13 and 18 points in Lambeau Field. With Chicago getting their quarterback healthy and the Lions purring along the Packers know this is a pull up your bootstraps type of game. Seneca Wallace isn |
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11-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -123 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
417 Baltimore at Cleveland
You can bet the Super Bowl Champions will give a terrific effort when they travel to Cleveland on Sunday. This is a team who is coming in off a bye after losing back to back nail biters. In fact, Baltimore is 1-3 on the season in games decided by 3 points or less. They have been in every game since the opening contest against the Broncos and now it |
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -1 v. St. Louis Rams | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 7 m | Show | |
407 Tennessee at St Louis
Here we find a Tennessee team off three straight losses and coming in off a bye with extra preparation time. Jake Locker has more time to ready himself off his injury and we have the superior team taking on a Rams club off a short week. This is a big step down in talent for the Titans after tangling with San Francisco, Seattle and Kansas City. In fact, the Titans have played the much tougher schedule when you back out games against opponents the opposition has produced a .630 winning percentage. Now with an extra week of rest and off a poor streak before the break we are looking for a big game out of Mike Munchak and his squad. St Louis is sure to have a letdown here after hosting a Monday Night Football game for the first time in ages. Not only did they play well, they dominated play only to come up short once again. To make matters worse the game coincided with the World Series where the average ticket price was $700. In turn the Rams were giving away food and drinks in order to get fans into the Edward Jone Dome. Kellen Clemens unfortunately is not the answer and as we have seen four times this season, this team has severe offensive problems. Four times the Rams have been held to 15 points or less as this offense simply cannot survive without a capable quarterback. The spot screams Tennessee and the Rams put up little resistance. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
400 San Diego at Jacksonville
Short week of preparation for the Chargers off a Monday Night Football victory over the Colts. That was a coming out party of sorts for the host as Indy had been a fan favorite in the early going. Now the Chargers travel cross country on a short week before a bye week on deck. It's very common for those with a vacation on deck to go through the motions the week heading up to the break. It happened to us as kids when vacation was on the horizon and it happens to NFL clubs as well, especially likely in this scenario with San Diego. This is also a team that shows a negative yards per point metric of -0.4, installed as more than a touchdown road favorite. San Diego doesn't run the ball well enough to protect a lead at just 3.7 ypr. When backing out games they are involved in the Chargers have played opponents with a .467 win percentage while the Jaguars faced the much tougher schedule at .667. Jacksonville is a much better team with Blackmon and Henne in the lineup. The last two games the Jags have only been out gained by a combined 33 total yards despite being underdogs of a combined 37 1/2 points. Jacksonville must travel to London after this contest to face the San Francisco 49ers, a very likely defeat. You can bet the players and coaches will give an extreme effort here to get this winless monkey off their backs. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
230 Indianapolis at San Diego
Tough spot here for the Colts who just pulled off an impressive home victory over the physical Seattle Seahawks and now must travel all the way to the west coast. Many will point out that they already won impressively in San Francisco, but that could lead to a bit of overconfidence here. Especially considering that the 4-1 Colts face off against the 6-0 Broncos next week in an early must win game for playoff home field advantage. The Colts players know having to go to Denver in January is death for a domed team, so you have to know they have one eye towards the big showdown next weekend. While the Colts are 4-1 on the season they have been out gained twice and have only out yarded the opposition by triple digits once, and that was lowly Jacksonville. And as mentioned earlier teams coming off the physical Seahawks have not performed well against the spread the following week. San Diego has played the tougher schedule and despite a 2-3 record they have been in every game except last week in Oakland, and the Chargers out gained the Raiders by 128 yards. The last two weeks San Diego has out gained the opposition by over 300 total yards. The Chargers are producing 6.1 yards per play which is among the league leaders. Playing at home in the underdog role should bring out frenzied fan support. With Denver in their division and the Colts way ahead of them for wild card consideration, this is a must win contest for the host. The Colts will no doubt get their points but this Chargers team has played much better than their current record. Indy on the other hand has been very fortunate. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
226 New Orleans at New England
The Saints have been extremely impressive this season, especially at home, but we're not buying into their road record. New Orleans has played well away from home when facing dome teams and lower echelon competition, but this is a game we're not sure they can handle. The Saints struggled in a two point win at Tampa Bay and were out gained last week at Chicago. Despite a 4-1 record on the season the Patriots simply have not played well. They have been out gained in 3 of 5 games this season. But some key players are starting to return to this offense and the longer the new players play together the better this scoring unit will be. Defensively the Pats have done a fine job this season, holding the opposition to just 5.1 yards per play. New England is holding opposing signal callers to a quarterback rating of 66.2. While they have yet to face a signal caller as effective as Drew Brees, the defense has the tools to contain him. We expect this line to go to the key number of 3 by game time, so lets get this one out now in anticipation of the line move. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. NY Jets | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
215 Pittsburgh at New York Jets
This selection is simply based on what history has shown to be a very profitable situation. Winless teams coming off a bye have been an outstanding subset. Considering that the Steelers have a veteran coaching staff along with proven winners, this should increase the likelihood of a Pittsburgh cover. The Jets looked terrific on Monday Night Football against Atlanta, and we all know when a team looks good on national television they are overvalued by the general public the next week. Just a week ago the lookahead line on this game has the Steelers favored in the 2 1/2 point range. So based off a good Jets showing against what it's turning out to be a struggling Falcons team, the line moved upwards of 4 points. We're not buying the line move. Sure the Steelers have been terrible offensively this year, but even the poor offensive coordinator had to have made some adjustments with the extra week off. The Jets are still a team with a rookie quarterback going against this Pittsburgh defense. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-06-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
San Diego at Oakland
Can't trust the Chargers here in the road favorite role as they have been out gained by over 100 yards on the season despite a 2-2 record. This is a team that has been very fortunate in key stretches of games, converting 50% of third down plays and 100% on fourth down. Despite a 71% completion rate San Diego is only slightly above league average in yards per pass completion. The San Diego defense is surrendering 435 1/2 yards per game and 65% completions themselves. This is not a team we want any part of laying points. In fact, this is the first time all season the Chargers have been favored. Terrelle Pryor is back under center for Oakland, while Darren McFadden will likely miss the game. But considering the oft-injured running back only surpassed the century yard mark three times last year, his being out of the lineup results in a better number for Raider backers. This is the third home game in four weeks for Oakland, while the Chargers have played in a different city each weekend. The Raiders passing game has roughly league average numbers while the rushing attack is producing 5.0 yards per contest, well above the league average. The dog in this series has cashed eight straight and we expect that trend to continue. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | 26-18 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 37 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Chicago
Short week for the Saints who beat up on previously undefeated Miami monday night. New Orleans is 5-4 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football, but all but two of those games were played in the Superdome. This team hasn't had a winning road spread mark since 2008 and they needed a late rally at Tampa Bay earlier this season to gain the outright victory. The Saint passing attack remains very efficient but the running game is definitely a concern producing just 3.4 yards per carry. While the defense hasn't given up many points thus far they have faced Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Miami, teams who have underperformed on the season offensively. Defensive injuries haven't exposed this stop unit yet, but we expect that to change on Sunday. The improved offensive line and quick release from Cutler is keeping him healthy and upright this season, something that hasn't happened much in the past. The running attack should have a field day against this Saints stop unit that permits 5.5 yards per carry. We know Chicago has the ability to score on defense but Drew Brees won't make that easy to accomplish. Still, this Saints offense is better suited for the dome. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 128 h 56 m | Show |
226 Miami v New Orleans
Both teams enter this contest at 3-0 but the Dolphins have been doing it with mirrors. This is a team that has been out gained in all three games yet ended the contests ahead on the scorecard. Miami hasn't run the football effectively and the offensive line is having a hard time keeping the quarterback upright. The Dolphins are averaging just 13.1 yards per point while the league average is 19.5, that tells us they have been taking advantage of excellent field position. The Dolphin defense is permitting 4.7 yards per rush which is well above the 4.1 league average. The Saints have now cashed 10 straight regular season home games with Sean Payton as head coach. They were a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2011 and have covered the spread in both home games this year by a combined 19 1/2 points. New Orleans has also cashed eight straight in the Superdome when facing opponents outside its division. New Orleans has a huge home field advantage when taking on opponents who have not experienced the noise of the New Orleans fans. That is sure to be magnified here under the Monday Night Football lights. The Saints are better than league average defensively in a lll the key metrics, as the change at defensive coordinator is doing wonders. New Orleans has a huge offensive edge, major home field edge and are at least equal statistically defensively. This number short of a touchdown is an easy choice. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | 30-23 | Loss | -116 | 57 h 34 m | Show | |
224 New England v Atlanta
The Patriots have a passer rating in the lower half of the league. The running game is average at best and overall this offense is producing 4.5 yards per play, well below the league average of 5.4. This is not your fathers Patriot scoring unit. While reinforcements are on the way we've seen enough of this offense to know the days of consecutive 30 point affairs are long in the past. Defensively the Pats have been solid against the pass but they did face two rookie quarterbacks and another signal caller who has since been benched. New England will finally be facing a veteran quality signal caller. Atlanta has a 0.6 yards per play season advantage over New England. Ryan's QB rating is one of the best in the league. While Atlanta has suffered some key injuries they remain a much higher quality scoring unit that the Pats right now. Atlanta sits at 1-2 on the year but they have played a much tougher schedule. When backing out the games against the Falcons, Atlanta opponents are performing at an .833 winning clip. It's going to be a loud and raucous crowd on Sunday night when the famed Patriots come to town for a rare appearance. Matt Ryan has been superb in his career at home and with the line under a field goal all we likely need is a straight up Atlanta victory. That's been a given in this building the past few years. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-29-13 | Washington Redskins v. Oakland Raiders +4 | 24-14 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 38 m | Show | |
220 Washington v Oakland
How bad have the Washington Redskins been this season? Not only are they 0-3 on the year but when you back out the wins over Washington their opponents are posting a minuscule .167 winning percentage. Washington has been out gained in every contest and have come up short to the spread by 27.5 points in just three games this season. Opponents are throwing all over this Redskin defense to the tune of 333 yards per contest and an opposing quarterback rating of 107.6. Oakland is playing on a short week having faced the Broncos monday night, but they have been a pleasant surprise to backers this season. The Raiders are averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above league average. The running game is averaging a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Oakland should find quality success against this very giving Washington defense. Mike Shanahan has always fared well against the Raiders but this is a long way from home for the Skins. At 0-3 many will feel that it's a must win game for Washington, but teams in that situation are there for a reason. The Skins right now are not a good football team and they don't deserve to be a favorite on the road in this price range. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-29-13 | NY Jets +4 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
215 NY Jets v Tennessee
We've been impressed with the New York Jets in the early going as they have out gained each and every opponent by at least 50 yards or better. The passing game which was considered to be a major weakness entering the year is about league average in yards per game but well above the average in yards per pass completion. The running game has also been solid which makes this offense very well balanced. The Jets are averaging 5.3 yards per play while allowing only 4.1 which is one of the better marks in the league. A problem for New York has been turnovers but overall we have to say this New York squad has outplayed preseason expectations. While the Jets have remained an under the radar squad the Titans are being promoted a bit more than they deserve. This is a team that allows more yards per play than they produce and have taken advantage of a plus 5 turnover margin. When backing out games against Tennessee the Titans opponents are winning just 1/3 of their games. Tennessee is below league average virtually in all offensive categories and the passing game has been especially troublesome. The Jets 14-10 loss to the Titans last year put them on an 0-3 spiral to finish the season. In that game they had a minus 5 turnover disadvantage and still played Tennessee tough. Jake Locker and the Titans have yet to turn the ball over this season and we know that they cannot remain that fortunate. We expect New York to take this to the wire and an outright victory is likely in the cards. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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09-22-13 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
NY Giants v Carolina
It's all come down to turnovers for the Giants who have coughed it up a whopping 10 times in the first two games. Without those turnovers we may look at this New York team in a different light. While the running game could be to blame the Giants haven't been producing many hall of fame caliber runners the last decade. Still with a veteran quarterback in Eli Manning we have a solid edge behind center in this contest. We expect another big offensive performance from the Giants here as the Carolina secondary is a weakness. Opponents are completing 70% of their passes against the Panthers. Carolina, like Pittsburgh is struggling under new offenses. The coaching staff is trying to make Cam Newton a pocket passer. While it likely will extend his career the results have been less than desirable. Newton is better in the open field where he can generate offense by freelancing. The Panthers are passing for just 150 yards per contest which is over 100 yards less than the league average. 0-2 teams playing at home in week 3 have been a money burner over the years as the public thinks they are in a must win situation. In a battle of winless clubs we will back the visitor who has clear edges offensively if they can just take care of the football. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-15-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 v. Oakland Raiders | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
217 Jacksonville at Oakland
The Jaguars laid an egg last week against the Chiefs, failing to dent the scoreboard offensively. QB Gabbert re-injured himself and Chad Henne will get the start. Henne took the majority of snaps last year when these two met in a 26-23 non-covering overtime win for the Raiders. While the Jaguars are a bad football team we're not sure the Raiders are much better. Especially when laying points. Oakland is a very poor favorite failing to post a winning spread mark in that role going back over a decade. Now 10-28 ATS giving points the past ten years. It was clear with only 30 passes attempted last year that Indy did not give much thought to Pryer behind center. The former Buckeye proved that he had the wheels but his passing ability is still highly questionable. Now with a full game of film the Jaguars should be much better prepared than the Colts. Teams who lose by 21 or more points the previous week and are installed as road underdogs do very well against the number. For a team that won just twice all season a year ago this is a must win for Jacksonville. Despite such a bad season the Jaguars still posted a 5-3 spread mark as road underdogs. With a trip to Seattle on deck the visitor will go all out in this one. Oakland in the meantime face long standing rival Denver next week on Monday Night Football, that's their statement game. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5 | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
220 Denver at NY Giants
The Broncos blew away the defending Super Bowl Champions last Thursday with Manning throwing 7 touchdown passes. Give them the championship trophy now! Oh you say it's just one game not a full season? That's exactly our point. It's just a single game. Keep in mind Baltimore lost to the Eagles last year and were beaten by 30 against Houston. Every team has good days and bad days and the Broncos clearly had a great day last week hosting the Ravens. Now Denver must travel to play a non-conference game sandwiched between playoff revenge and a divisional game on Monday Night Football. The Broncos are a very talented team but if you are playing Denver this week you are laying a high tariff. The Giants turned the ball over six times last week against the Cowboys and still had a chance to win the game outright on the final drive. Teams that have such a negative turnover margin are not supposed to be in that position. New York went 6-2 SU at home last year with wins over Washington, Green Bay and New Orleans. They have a habit of playing well here in big games. At 4-2 ATS since 2007 as a home underdog and 8-2-1 catching points overall we think the Giants have enough to surprise the Broncos here. With trips to improved Carolina and Kansas City on deck this is a must win early season game for the Giants. Keep in mind New York outscored the opposition by 5.3 ppg a year ago despite playing in a very tough division. Denver will put up their points against a banged up Giants defense, but Eli and company have a solid scoring unit of their own. PLAY NY GIANTS |
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09-15-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -5.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
212 Minnesota v Chicago
Bettors were lining up in the preseason to bet these Vikings under their season win total, and in the opener we saw exactly why. This is a team that posted a 10-6 record last year despite outscoring the opposition by just 1.9 points per game. They were 5-1 straight up in games decided by 7 points or less. This was a very fortunate team last year and they were extremely fortunate to even be in the game last week against the Lions. Minnesota was only competitive on the scoreboard because they were playing the bungling Lions. Detroit completely outplayed Minnesota in that game but did what the Lions do, make boneheaded mistakes. Two touchdowns called back, numerous key penalties and low and behind the Lions struggled to put away the less talented Vikings. That won't be the case this week as unlike the Lions the Bears know how to take advantage of opportunities. They led the league in takeaways last year and forced another three turnovers last week. Minnesota has not fared well in this building losing 9 of their last 10 visits. The last three trips to Soldier Field resulted in defeats by 18, 29 and 14 points. Over the past five seasons Minnesota is 1-9 ATS on the division road when playing outdoors. Being a domed team they play well in Detroit but at Chicago and Green Bay they have been a very giving visitor. Chicago played a much tougher opponent last week vs Cincinnati and they pulled out the victory. The Vikings are a major step down from the Bengals. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-08-13 | Arizona Cardinals +4.5 v. St. Louis Rams | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
473 Arizona v St Louis
The Cardinals shocked the sports world a year ago by opening the season with victories over three highly acclaimed teams, Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. Through the first six games of the year Arizona allowed just 118 points, including two contests that went to overtime. We feel the defense the Cards showed early last season will return in 2013. Arizona has held St Louis to 20 points or less in 9 of the last 10 meetings. In five meetings in St Louis the Rams have averaged just 15.2 ppg. Getting the key numbers of 3 and 4 in what we expect to be a low scoring contest is great value. The season betting markets slightly favor the Rams but we aren't sure those numbers are warranted. Arizona has won 8 or more games in 4 of the last 6 seasons and off a 5-11 campaign we feel the Cardinals are in for a solid year. The addition of Carson Palmer even at his advanced age is a huge upgrade over Kolb and Skelton. St Louis has posted just one spread winning season at home in the last 9 years, and that was just a 5-3 mark in 2010. The home field edge in this building is virtually nonexistent, especially since the team hasn't produced a winning overall record since 2003. The Rams have won 3 or less games in 4 of the last 6 years. The team make a solid five game jump a season ago to 7-8-1 on the season. If you've followed the NFL long enough you know it's very tough to make a jump in wins two years in a row. We like this Rams defense but we still have serious concerns about its scoring ability. St Louis hasn't produced 19 points per game in six straight years, we can't see them scoring enough here to distance themselves from the Cards. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-08-13 | Minnesota Vikings +4.5 v. Detroit Lions | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
469 Minnesota v Detroit
There has been a highly publicized opening week trend out there going against teams who made the playoffs last year against non-playoff participants. The basic reason is that those teams are overrated in the public eye and a playoff team from one year is not guaranteed to return the previous season. But that has already been factored into this line as the vast majority feel Minnesota will take a step back this year. So from our perspective it's the Vikings who are the underrated team in this matchup. We always like to write down the current lines before the preseason starts and track the line movements. The Lions opened up as a 3 1/2 point favorite in this contest, now they are sitting in the 5 to 5 1/2 point range. What has happened in the preseason to make the Lions two points better in the betting markets? In our opinion not a single thing. We still have the overhyped Lions who continue to make the same costly mistakes in which they've made over the past few seasons. Overrated and undisciplined is not qualities we want in backing a divisional favorite. Minnesota is getting no love this offseason as the season win number has been bet slightly down, but that has now moved Minnesota into the bargain territory. They aren't nearly as flashy offensively as the Lions but they get the job done. Also the Vikings have played very well in Detroit winning outright and cashing 3 of the last 5 meetings. Since both teams play in a dome the Lions don't have the usual home field edge they have against non-dome squads. At 3-6-1 as a divisional home favorite the past decade the Lions have not proven themselves to be worthy in this role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +4.5 | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
468 Seattle v Carolina
The Seahawks are a bigger favorite in this game than in any other road contest since 2009. The same Seattle organization that has posted just one winning season spread mark on the road since 2005. Because of its location the Seahawks traditionally have the worst road travel schedule in the league, and here we find them traveling cross country to the eastern time zone in an early start game. Seattle also has their biggest game of the season on deck when they host San Francisco on Sunday Night Football. Seattle is the hot team right now as some trusted sources have them ranked as the best team in the league. We can't argue that the Seahawks are undeserving, but keep in mind that a year ago they were home underdogs in their first three home games of the season. Seattle is 5-11 ATS as a road favorite since 2006 and are a bit overrated in the betting markets right now. We see plenty to like with the Panthers who were pounded up in the season win markets. Carolina has made a steady climb from 2 wins in 2010 to 6 and 7 victories the last two seasons. This is a team on the rise that is being overshadowed here by a very public Seattle squad. While the Seahawks were given deserved credit for a strong late season run a year ago, the Panthers almost mirrored that success. Carolina won and covered 5 of its last 6 games including victories against Atlanta and at New Orleans. With only a non-conference trip to Buffalo on deck the Panthers do not have the lookahead situation the Seahawks have. With this game sitting above the key number of 3 we see strong value in backing the home dog here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 22 m | Show | |
Baltimore & San Francisco
Since this game has been talked about in length we will keep this analysis short and sweet. Baltimore is getting healthy defensively and with two weeks to prepare they should have counter measures installed against the running San Francisco signal caller. We have concerns about how this 49er defense has been picked apart in the passing game as of late. While there are better ways to make money on this game we will use an opinion on Baltimore at +4 or better. PLAY BALTIMORE In regards to Props here are some we have already played. If you can find these within 20 cents of what we played we would recommend you follow. Flacco throws 1st interception before Kappernick -110 Ed Reed Under 4 tackles -100 Vernon Davis Over 3 receptions -100 Moss receiving yards -5 1/2 over Kobe points -115 (3 Units) Flacco Completions Over 20 1/2 -125 Boldin Over 64 1/2 receiving yards -115 Ravens players to score- Under 3 1/2 -125 (2 Units) Total TDs Under 5 1/2 -100 Total QB Sacks Under 4 1/2 -120 No Score in 1st 7 Minutes +145 Here are some props we will play once the public gets involved and brings the juice down Will there be a successful 2 point conversion - No Will there be a missed extra point - No Will there be overtime - No Will there be a safety - No Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points- No |
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01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos -9 | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
110 Baltimore at Denver
We haven't been impressed by this Baltimore team at all this season, and when it plays on the road the offense stagnates. Joe Flacco has a 15 to 5 TD to INT ratio at home averaging 8.3 yppa. On the road those numbers drop to 7 to 5 TD to INT ratio with a 5.9 yppa. The defense is aging and because of the hurry up offense used at times the defensive problems were magnetized. Denver is better on both sides of the ball. There is a huge discrepancy at the quarterback position and the running game is comparable. Defensively Denver has proven to be superior to the Ravens in just about every phase. With Baltimore having to play last week and then travel into altitude the scheduling advantage is clearly with the rested host. The first time these two met Denver dominated. We expect more of the same. PLAY DENVER |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -7 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
106 Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indy is 4-4 SU on the road but the wins came against Tennessee in overtime, Jacksonville, Detroit and Kansas City. That's three of the worst teams in the league along with the most undisciplined. The Colts are 4-5 ATS in games they lost the turnover battle which is actually quite impressive, but it's telling about how fortunate Indianapolis his been. Visiting playoff teams they lost at New England by 35 and Houston by 12, also lost at Chicago who had a winning record by 22 points. That's the only three teams they played on the road that finished with a winning record. The Colts were 9-1 SU in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have been able to win close games which we know from many years of match study is an anomaly. Once Atlanta posted a similar 7-0 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less and now they are considered the third best team in the NFC. The last two weeks the Ravens held the Giants and Bengals to just 186 and 189 total yards. Ray Lewis returning should be an emotional lift for the Ravens but we doubt he will have any significant impact with his play. Still, we saw how valuable the home field has been in the playoffs and the Colts are a totally different team on the road. Great season for Indy ends here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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01-05-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
104 Minnesota at Green Bay
Four straight wins and covers for the Vikings who have taken advantage of positive turnover margins. This is the very first playoff game for Leslie Frazier. On the road when not in a dome: Lost by 12 at Washington, lost by 10 at Seattle, lost by 18 at Chicago, lost by 9 at Green Bay, won by 17 at Houston. The Packers are 28-4 straight up at home but lost to the NY Giants here in the playoffs a year ago. Rodgers produced 8.3 and 8.1 yppa against Minnesota this season with 405 and 435 total yards of offense. He really had his way against this Minnesota defense in the second half last week. Much more playoff experience for Green Bay who fully expected to be in the postseason entering the year while Minnesota was coming off a 3-13 season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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12-30-12 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills -3 | 9-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
302 NY Jets at Buffalo
The Jets started the season with very realistic playoff optimism after eight wins or more in four straight seasons. But now locked in with a losing record and a season full of controversy we can't see how the Jets show up here. They already beat the Bills 48-28 in the season opener after catching all kinds of flack in the preseason. They were highly motivated then but this game is a totally different situation. With Sanchez back behind center any hope for improvement is moot. Buffalo has dropped six straight in this series and according to everything we have read the Bills want this victory badly. Unlike New York, Buffalo is off three straight seasons of six wins or less. They didn't have serious playoff hopes entering the season. This game means much more to the host and the number is very reasonable. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-30-12 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
310 Houston at Indianapolis
Here is a situation we simply love in the final week of the season. Last week the lookahead line at a popular Vegas casino was Indianapolis -3. Now we find the Texans laying a touchdown simply because of need. Houston is already in the playoffs but they need a victory here to insure home field throughout the playoffs. So you could have bet Houston last week at 9 1/2 to 10 points better than the current line. I guess the Texans must have looked a lot better to others than they did to us in a 23-6 home loss to the Vikings. Just because the game on the surface looks to be more important to the Texans, we're not so sure Indy is going to lay down here. Coach Pagano is back this week and that's a huge emotional edge for the host. Indy has also been terrific at home this season with a 6-1 spread mark. They have also fared very well hosting Houston with 10 straight outright home victories. Houston will be the tight team here while the Colts will play free and easy. They played Houston much tougher than the 29-17 loss two weeks ago on the road. They win this one outright. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +5 v. New Orleans Saints | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
323 Carolina at New Orleans
The Panthers have had little problem playing in the Superdome cashing 10 of the last 11 meetings. They beat the Saints earlier this season 35-27 and Carolina is playing with a great amount of confidence right now. Winning three straight and 4 of 5 with the only loss being the highly emotional game in Kansas City after the murder suicide. A victory here and the Panthers better their 6-10 record from a season ago. New Orleans can get to .500 with a victory here but after 13, 11 and 13 win seasons is that even a goal? This was a team who entered the year with something to prove after the bounty gate suspensions. But now they are just playing out the schedule off a very disappointing year. New Orleans was dominant at home last season with a perfect 9-0 record at home including the playoffs. But this year the Saints have already lost here to Washington, Kansas City and San Francisco. Off a highly emotional overtime win in Dallas the Saints may run out of gas here on Sunday. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-23-12 | NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens | 14-33 | Loss | -118 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
121 NY Giants at Baltimore
Teams off a 30 or more point loss are an excellent point spread proposition. Teams after being shutout are also great against the spread. Defending Super Bowl Champions who lose 34-0 are the type of teams we will look to back the next time out. New York has been a money maker on the road since 2006 and after scoring just 29 combined points the last three road games we look for a big game from this Giants offense. Baltimore has struggled defensively this season allowing 30 to New England, 29 to Dallas, 43 to Houston, 31 to Washington and 34 last week to Denver. All those teams like this weeks opponent are in playoff contention. Baltimore has looked good defensively against Cleveland, Kansas City and San Diego but they have struggled when stepping up in class. Offensively the Ravens have been held to 17, 28, 20, 13 and 13 points in regulation the past five games. PLAY NY GIANTS |
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12-23-12 | Oakland Raiders v. Carolina Panthers -8.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
106 Oakland at Carolina
The last five games Oakland managed 17 total points or less as the offense continues to struggle. They have been outscored the past six weeks 173-92 even off a 15-0 shutout of the Chiefs. Oakland is on a 1-6 spread run and we can't see them getting up to travel cross country for a non-conference game. Now that Cam Newton has regained his confidence this Carolina offense is humming with 112 points the last four games. In 4 of the last 5 games Newton averaged over 8 yppa which is outstanding. Carolina hasn't lost a turnover battle in eight weeks as they continue to give themselves chances to win. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-16-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills +6 | 50-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 54 m | Show | |
322 Seattle at Buffalo
The Seahawks have a tremendous home field edge but they are not very profitable away from home. Just 3-4 ATS on the road this year and 29-46-4 since 2003. Seattle has been installed three times as road favorites this year losing straight up at Arizona, losing outright at St Louis and losing again to Miami. The Seahawks haven't covered as a road favorite since 2009. Off an overtime win in Chicago and a 58-0 thrashing of divisional rival Arizona, the Seahawks are bound to have a letdown here. With the biggest two games of the season on deck against San Francisco and the upstart St Louis Rams you can bet Seattle won't be fully focused here. This game is not an actual home game for Buffalo as they play this game across the border in Toronto. But the crowd will be pro Bills here despite the country change. While many will point to the inconsistent Buffalo offense the Bills stop unit gets better by the week. Heading into the season much was expected out of this defense and the Bills were smoked on a regular basis. But the last four weeks its come together for Buffalo as they have permitted just 15, 18, 20 and 14 points. Seattle's offense isn't strong enough to distance themselves from Buffalo here and the Seahawks have shown no reason to trust them in the road favorite roll. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-16-12 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 39 h 53 m | Show | |
323 Detroit at Arizona
Detroit is up there as one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. The Lions entered the year with high expectations on the heels of a 10-6 season a year ago. But now this team has nothing to play for after losing a must win game last week at Green Bay. The players talked about being the team that broke the long streak of winning in Green Bay, and they had a 14-0 lead and the ball. But Detroit imploded like they have so often this season and lost 27-20 to their hated rival on Sunday Night Football. Now they travel to play the lowly Cardinals knowing they host Atlanta in a nationally televised game next Saturday before ending the season with divisional rival Chicago revenge. Detroit has a 2-7-2 spread mark as road favorites in the last 11 years. Arizona is off an embarrassing loss Sunday at Seattle, a 58-0 pasting in which the coach apologized to the Arizona fans. Now back home in front of their own crowd you know this team will go all out for a victory. In the pros players don't quit. With non-guaranteed contracts these Cardinal players are playing for their future, whether here or somewhere else next year. Historically teams who lose by 20 or more are an excellent point spread proposition the following game. The higher the loss margin the better the winning percentage. This is a team on a mission this week and the public will be running to the window to back the well known Lions. That's the time to step in and take the tremendous value on the host. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-16-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
313 Jacksonville at Miami
The Jaguars have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL and last week they were a 3 point underdog to the Jets. Now this week they are catching over a touchdown to another team with virtually no home field advantage. Take a look at how much better Jacksonville has played on the road this year compared to games in Everbank Field. A 26-23 overtime loss at Minnesota, a 22-17 win at playoff bound Indianapolis, a 26-23 overtime loss to Oakland (a 3 point cover), a 9 point loss at Green Bay (a 6 1/2 point cover), a 43-37 overtime loss at Houston and last time out they laid an egg at Buffalo 34-18. So just once all season has Jacksonville not been competitive on the road. Miami is 0-2 as a home favorite this year and 8-33 ATS in that role since 2003. The last nine times they have been a favorite of over 4 points the Dolphins failed to cover. In 7 of the last 9 games this season Miami has failed to reach 280 total yards of offense. It's tough to lay points in the NFL with a poor scoring unit and expecting to cover a sizable number without moving the football is highly unlikely. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-09-12 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Seattle Seahawks | 0-58 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
129 Arizona at Seattle
Simply put double digit road underdogs off a loss are 62.9% ATS when the game total is under 38. Current total as we write this is 35 1/2. That means when a game is expected to be very low scoring you simply cannot lay double digits in the NFL, regardless of how good or bad these teams looked the prior week. Arizona has beaten the Seahawks straight up in 6 of the last 9 meetings, including a 20-16 win in the season opener. In the three meetings the past two seasons Seattle is averaging just 295 yards per game to go along with 16.3 points per contest. They simply don't score enough to lay a sizable number to anyone. With Skelton back behind center at least the Cardinals have a quarterback with experience. In games with Kolb or Skelton starting the Cardinals never lost a turnover battle by more than one all season. That means Seattle can't depend on defensive scores to widen any margin. Seattle is in unfamiliar territory here as they haven't been favored by more than five points in any game this season. In fact, they have not been a double digit favorite since mid 2009. Seattle is coming in off back to back road games including going to overtime last week in Chicago. While we don't have an exact winning percentage on double digit favorites off an overtime win we can guess it can't be a profitable subset. There is little doubt that the Seahawks are the better team but they have not yet graduated to this lowly point spread status. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-09-12 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 20-19 | Win | 107 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
123 Dallas at Cincinnati
The Cowboys are playing much better as of late winning 3 of 4 contests. The offense which was stagnant for much of the season has produced 130 combined points the last four weeks. Dallas is 4-2 straight up on the road this year despite facing the likes of Seattle, the NY Giants, Baltimore and Atlanta. For a team with no home field advantage the Cowboys are a bargain when they hit the road. Playing the underdog in Dallas games continues to be profitable as the Cowboys play up or down to the competition. The dog is now on a 27-11 ATS run in Cowboy contests. Cincinnati has won four straight to put them back in playoff contention, but keep in mind three of those victories came against San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the Bengals only have two quality wins all season, over the NY Giants and Washington. Cincinnati has a quick turnaround game after this contest as they have to travel to Philadelphia for a Thursday affair. While the Eagles are not a major threat the road teams on these Thursday games have not fared well all season. Despite the playoff talk coming out of Cincinnati the Bengals know they will be sitting on the sidelines again come playoff time. They simply don't match up with the two teams ahead of them in the standings as both Pittsburgh and Baltimore have dominated them, and that's who they play the last two weeks. The only time the Bengals have been favored this year has been against Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City and Oakland. This Dallas team is far superior to any of those squads. The Bengals are 1-1-1 ATS this year as home favorites. They haven't finished a season with a winning home spread mark in any season for over a decade. Since 2002 Cincinnati is 14-28-3 ATS laying points at Paul Brown Stadium. That number doesn't get any better after this one. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
118 Atlanta at Carolina
The Falcons have swept the Panthers the past 6 meetings in high scoring affairs. This is a major sandwich game for Atlanta after facing Tampa Bay and New Orleans with the Champion NY Giants on deck. Atlanta's offense hasn't been overly impressive as of late scoring just 23, 24, 23, 27 and 19 the last five contests. The 25 ppg against New Orleans in two meetings the last few weeks in concerning, as the Saints haven't stopped anyone defensively all year. While the records say this is a mismatch it all comes down to how these two have fared in close games. Atlanta is 7-0 in games decided by 7 points or less, while Carolina is 0-7. The Panthers off embarrassing loss to the Chiefs. The last three games Cam Newton has produced yppa numbers of 8.1, 10.3 and 8.1 as the Carolina passing game is finally coming around. The Panthers have a better ypp for and against by .5 yards over Atlanta. They have the better running game for and against by .8 ypr also. Carolina has faced the tougher schedule with an opponent win % of 508 as compared to Atlanta's .412. These two are much closer than the records dictate and after dropping six straight all the motivation is on the host. PLAY CAROLINA |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
New Orleans at Atlanta
This is a cheap number considering just three weeks ago the Falcons were favored by 1 1/2 in New Orleans. The Saints own victories this year over Atlanta by 4 in a game they were out gained, San Diego by 7 in a game they were out yarded, by 15 over Philadelphia is a game they lost the yardage battle, by 7 at Tampa Bay where they were out gained, and by 21 at Oakland where they again were out gained. New Orleans has lost the yardage battle in all but two games this season. The offense has surpassed 385 yards just once the past five games. Teams who play on Sunday and travel to play on Thursday are at a major disadvantage. While these two teams know each other well the travel situation for New Orleans has to be a concern. Atlanta is looking to avenge it's only loss of the season. In fact, the Falcons have dropped four straight games to the Saints. So while many will point to the Falcons possibly going through the motions here, we feel this has to be a statement game for the host. Since that loss to the Saints in a game in which Atlanta couldn't put the ball in the end zone late, this team has won by four and single point margins. But keep in mind that the Falcons lost the turnover battle in those games by a combined margin of seven and they still found a way to win. Atlanta is one yard away from entering this game undefeated and yet the line is extremely cheap for a Thursday night host. Is it possible the 10-1 Falcons are underrated? We say a resounding yes! PLAY ATLANTA |
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11-25-12 | St. Louis Rams +1.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
St Louis at Atlanta
The Rams have played better on the road than at home this season with a 3-1 spread mark away from the Edward Jones Dome. They haven't won a game since the last time these two got together in a 17-3 home win on October 4th. The Rams have shown some offensive ability this season while Arizona has really struggled to put points on the board. Defensively St Louis has been lit up by elite offenses but have held lesser scoring units down. Arizona lost last week despite an amazing +5 turnover edge. They put up a whopping 178 yards of total offense. During this six game losing streak the Cardinals have produced 19, 17, 3, 14, 16 in overtime and 3 points. This is not a team worthy of laying points. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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11-22-12 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
106 Washington at Dallas
The Redskins looked good last week against a Philadelphia team that has thrown in the towel. But the going won't be so easy this week against a resurgent Cowboys team. The Skins have only beaten Dallas once in the last seven meetings. Dallas has been a well known poor home favorite but with the line being short they likely cover the number with an outright victory. With this game surrounded by Cleveland and two games with an already spent Philadelphia team, the Cowboys know this is the game they need to have. Dallas is the better team here in our opinion yet the line is saying these two squads are virtually equal. While the Skins travel on a short week the Cowboys remain home after surviving against the Browns. That overtime victory keeps Dallas focused here. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-18-12 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Atlanta Falcons | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
Arizona at Atlanta
Cardinals come out of the bye week having lost five straight games. We like to play losing teams coming off a loss before the bye with an extra week to prepare. The defense which has been so good all season permitted 31 points, a season high last time out. We expect a focussed effort from the Cards here. Atlanta's undefeated bubble burst last time out against the Saints. They just played a divisional game against New Orleans and they played a Sunday Night Football contest against Dallas the previous week. The Falcons have three straight divisional games on deck, including New Orleans revenge, followed by a game against the defending Super Bowl Champion NY Giants. This is one hell of a flat spot for Atlanta. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-18-12 | Cleveland Browns +9 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
Cleveland at Dallas
Cleveland entered the bye week with a 2-7 record including a 25-15 home loss against the Ravens. They are well rested and haven't left home since facing the Colts on October 21st. The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in the road dog role and the defense is starting to resemble the stop unit of a year ago. Simply put the Cowboys are a terrible home favorite. Especially laying more than a field goal. The team just doesn't distance themselves from the opposition which makes the underdog in Dallas games very profitable. Dallas faces Cleveland in a terrible scheduling spot. They faced Giants revenge, then played Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, followed by the must win game last week against the Eagles. Next Thursday on Thanksgiving they play the Redskins, followed by a Sunday Night Football divisional rematch against the Eagles. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-11-12 | San Diego Chargers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show | |
220 San Diego at Tampa Bay
Chargers enter play at 4-4 on the season but have played a very easy schedule. The only quality teams they played were Atlanta a 24 point loss, and Denver an 11 point loss in a complete collapse. They have beaten Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City twice. This non-conference game is sandwiched between two divisional games including a huge showdown next week with Denver. This is a west coast team traveling east for an early start game and the Chargers have surpassed 340 total yards of offense just twice all season. Tampa Bay has won 3 of their last 4 games with the only defeat coming on a controversial call against the Saints. Offensively the Bucs are on quite a roll putting up 42, 36, 28 and 38 points the past four weeks. Tampa does have divisional games on deck against Carolina and Atlanta, but off a 4-12 season we can't see Tampa Bay overlooking anyone. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-11-12 | Denver Broncos v. Carolina Panthers +5 | 36-14 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
222 Denver at Carolina
If you've handicapped the NFL for any amount of time you know that the league is always in flux, the team of the week syndrome affects the Broncos here. After three straight wins Denver has now been anointed the best team in the league, regression is about to hit. Against good teams Denver beat Pittsburgh by 12, lost to Atlanta by 6, lost to Houston by 6 and lost to New England by 10. Despite their record, this Carolina squad is a pretty good team. Carolina has lost just once all season by more than 6 points, and that was against the Giants right after they found out four key Giants players would not be suiting up. They lost by two at Atlanta, one at Chicago and by four hosting Seattle. This team is much better than their record and is once again gaining confidence. PLAY CAROLINA |
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11-11-12 | Detroit Lions -2 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
229 Detroit at Minnesota
The Lions took a little more action today which tells us that Percy Harvin isn't likely to play for the Vikings. He's the sole offensive playmaker for Minnesota other than Adrian Peterson, and now Detroit can stack the line for the run knowing Ponder has no ability to beat them. The more the Vikings play the more the opposition can game plan for this one-dimensional offense. Detroit had beaten the Vikings three straight times before a 20-13 defeat earlier this season. That put the Lions at 1-3 on the year but they have played much better as of late. Wins in 3 of the last 4 games with the lone defeat coming at Chicago by 6 points, in a game they lost the turnover battle by four. At 4-4 on the season and with divisional losses to Chicago and Minnesota this is a must win game for Detroit. PLAY DETROIT |