Seahawks/Patriots 6:30: Playoffs set the tone for public perception jumping all over Seattle. It was surely well deserved. Seahawks defense was strong, although gave up 12 explosive plays to Rams in NFC Championship Game. The run game with Walker III helped QB Darnold settle in and play turnover free football with Smith-Njigba a huge asset. Consequently, analysts jumped all over Seattle while the armchair quarterbacks, and now their wives, are heavily invested in the Seahawks. Vrabel and company hear the noise and that lack of respect will surely be a major motivator. Patriots answered the bell virtually all year and MVP runner up -Maye - mentored by multiple Super Bowl winning OC Josh McDaniel, put up astounding numbers in the #2 offense in the league. And defensively, their backend is as good as any in the league with Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones. And the defense, without any superstar names, plays well connected as a run stop unit. Seattle's QB Darnold is not out of the woods yet. Sure, he did well in the playoffs but was interception prone during the regular season. Patriots' defense could surely recreate "ghosts" for the biggest game of his sweaty palmed career. Technically, the Super Bowl dog getting 3 points or more is 9-2 ATS. And the underdog has won 5 straight ATS. We'll look for the 6th to be a charm. Take the points. 

Rams/Seahawks 6:30: Tight and competitive series. Rams came close to sweeping this series Dec 18th. Darnold's late game heroics led them to victory. Darnold, however, has struggled mightily vs the Rams' defense. Bigger game, bigger stage and palms a bit more sweaty. He won't have Charbonnet (knee) as that highly versatile TD machine. Walker III very good runner but below average pass rush blocker. DC Shula should come out with a good game plan. And trust Stafford who rises to the occasion in big games. Also, unlike December 18th, Davante Adams is back to add to take some pressure off All World Nacua . We'll roll with the Rams. 

Patriots/Broncos 3:00: I realize Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind and has developed a number of high quality QBs over his coaching tenure. And there are a couple of occasions in NFL history when the starting QB goes down and the backup comes in to successfully lead the team to a Super Bowl title (Hostetler for Simms in 1990 and Foles for Wentz in 2017); however, those QBs had effective run games (136+ YPG) and strong defensive play to support them. Stidham does have a top tier defense to set him up with good field position but the run game is mediocre (116 YPG) with Harvey and McLaughlin behind a banged up offensive line. And other than Sutton, the receiving corps is not scaring anybody. Patriots' defense has been strong under DC Kuhr. Patriots' top corner Gonzalez can match on Sutton. Offensively, Maye and company have been unflappable on the road (8-0) and should eventually wear down the Denver defense. We'll lay the points. 

Rams/Bears 6:30: A couple of things going against the Rams.  They've struggled on the road vs non-division teams. Last season, they lost at Chicago 24-18 on September 29th. Swift gutted them for 93 rush yards. Sure, the Rams' defense is improved but the Bears' offensive line has also improved. And QB Williams is much more efficient in the new regime under Ben Johnson. Rams control a money burning record of 0-7 ATS off SU wins vs an opponent off SU dog win. And Matthew Stafford 1-9 SU in cold (below 20 degrees), rainy or snowy weather. Hard for a fair-weather team to acclimate to 16-degree temperatures in a few days. Thought this line would be Rams (-1'). Bears have that never say die magic this season. We'll look for them to keep this one tight. 

Texans/Patriots 3:00: A combination of inclement weather (possible freezing rain), stingy defenses should keep this score lower than the total. NE allows just 17.9 PPG whereas the Texans allow an even stingier 16.7 PPG. Each offense has its weakness. Patriots' offensive line has given up nearly 3 sacks per game. Houston defense, so good, they don't need assistance of secondary blitzes. There defensive front, led by edge rushers Anderson and Hunter, average 2.8 sacks per game (9th) and were especially dominant late in the season, including in WC round terrorizing Rodgers. Patriots' defense sacks the QB in a different way utilizing blitz techniques yet highly effective. And Houston's offense looked inept at times last week and marked with penalties and inconsistency throughout the year. Moreover, leading receiver Nico Collins (concussion) is out. We'll stay "under" here. 

Houston/New England 3:00: Both teams coming into this one hot. Houston defense absolutely smothered Aaron Roders and Pittsburgh in the WC round. Meanwhile, Patriots choked out a good Chargers team. Patriots have the edge at home with the weather (already acclimated), fan edge, and a more disciplined offense. QB Maye has been fabulous under OC Josh McDaniels. Patriots lead the league in yards per play (6.5). Houston defense not easy to penetrate but McDaniels has a winning formula. On the other hand, Houston offense is not consistent enough to dissect a stingy Patriots' defense that allows 17.9 PPG. Texans' offense had trouble last week executing the most basic of fundamentals including the snap that was botched several times. Moreover, they're at the bottom of the league in penalties. And given the fact that 1000+ yard receivers Nico Collins (concussion) is out, we'll grab the more well-rounded team - New England. 

49ers/Seahawks 8:00: Seahawks brutally beat SF up January 3rd but SF responded with a solid win over Philadelphia. Shanahan's done a masterful job keeping the team competitive despite the injuries. Fortunately, Seahawks' QB Darnold injured his oblique in Thursday's practice. That's not an ailment that heals overnight and can be painful in his throwing rotation. SF pass rush not good but DC Saleh has done a bang-up job developing the second level players to step in game ready. We'll look for SF to hang around here. 

Bills/Broncos 4:30: Tough game to handicap. Broncos are well rested while the Bills are banged up but coming off their first road playoff win since '92. Bills blasted Denver last season in the WC round 31-7 in Buffalo. Broncos' defense got gashed by the Bills run game 210 yards to Denver's 79. This season, Denver's run game hasn't been that strong since Dobbins went down. I don't believe they can take advantage of Buffalo's poor run stop unit. And key defensive line cog Ed Oliver is off the IR and back to lend help. Buffalo's back end has been pretty strong (#1 vs pass) and I'm not completely sold on Nix as a big time QB. And offensively, Denver is in the bottom tier in penalties. On the defensive end, Broncos are very good and lead the league in sacks. But Josh Allen has RB Cook to keep that line from heading up field to fast and the ability to scramble and make magic, despite a depleted WR corps. Shakir and his TEs Kincaid and Knox manage to get open. I'll give the edge to Buffalo. 

Texans/Steelers 8:15: Steelers have going for them that Monday night magic at home with that long-extended win streak; however, when push comes to shove, I don't believe Aaron Rodgers, who's slowed down significantly, can hold up against the violent rush of the Texans led by Anderson and Hunter. Houston has a top tier defense across the board and, as much as I love RB Warren, Steelers' run game not productive enough to loosen up this ridged Texans' defense. Offensively, Stroud and company won't scare most NFL teams; however, Steelers' defense erratic against non-division foes. Got to go with Houston. 

Chargers/Patriots 8:15: Patriots turned in quite a season under Vrabel. QB Maye flourishing in Josh McDaniels' system and they're winning games. I'm not sleeping on the Chargers though. They're 2-0 at New England since 2023, and they're 12-4 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents under Harbaugh. Sure, the Chargers' offensive line is ravaged with multiple starters throughout the season. Herbert has been sacked 54 times in 16 games. Fortunately, he has more surrounding skill player help this season. Last season, it was just McConkey. This season, Allen, TE Gadsden, and the development of Johnston has helped tremendously with crisp routes. And the run game has been solid with Vidal and rookie Hampton. Patriots' defense 22nd sacks relying on LBs Chaissm and Landry for a bulk of them (16). Defensively, I like the Chargers' defense under DC Minter with playmakers - Derwin James, Perryman and Henley. Maye has been sacked 47 times in 17 games and it's his first playoff game. I'll go with underrated QB Herbert to notch his first playoff win. 

49ers/Eagles 4:30: 49ers' offense was buzzing until running into Seattle last week. Eagles' defense has done a solid job for most of the season and should flourish under Fangio when it matters most. Eagles rested most of the starters on both sides of the ball last week and should be flying around making plays today. 49ers' offense under Shanahan usually flourishes with the run game setting the tone under McCaffrey; however, the run game is 24th in the league in yards per game and 30th in YPC (3.8) - both lows for Shanahan. Eagles' play the run well - especially with a healthy Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis manning the interior gaps. And schematically, the Eagles' DC Fangio make QBs look and top tier in completion percentage allowed. Offensively, Eagles' offense did not do well with OC Patullo this season; however, the talent is abundant and healthy. Eagles' RT Lane Johnson (foot) should be good to go. And Hurts is 5-0 in playoffs at home. SF defense ravaged with injuries to key starters this season. Saleh has done a solid job in scheming and shuttling in players ready; however, Eagles' overall loaded offensive talent should be able to exploit the youth in the 49ers' secondary and the inability to pass rush (last in the league). Eagles the call. 

Bills/Jaguars 1:00: Coen has done a remarkable job turning Jacksonville into a winner in one season. QB Lawrence is finally flourishing. Over his last 6 games, he's thrown 15 TD passes to just 1 INT to a variety of receivers. Bills' defense has its flaws, especially against the run. Look for Coen to utilize 1000+ yard rusher Etienne to gash a Bills' defense that allows a generous 5.1 YPC (30th). Offensively, Bills' QB Josh Allen, relies on respectable TEs Knox and Kincaid but doesn't have that go-to vertical receiver - maybe Shakir. The key weapon - RB Cook is the most dangerous weapon, but Jaguar defense sports the #1 run-stop unit in the NFL and a ball hawking secondary that's at top of the league in interceptions (22). QB Allen great at extending plays but does attempt to do too much at times because of limited weaponry. Bills haven't won a road playoff game in 33 years, and I don't think that will change this year. Jaguars the call. 

Packers/Bears 8:00: Bears not to be taken lightly. They have an opportunistic secondary that leads the league in interceptions, and a well-orchestrated offense by Ben Johnson. But I'm not sleeping on LaFleur and the Packers. They're well rested (many starters sat last week) and present a dangerous offense that rarely turns the ball over, has a run game with RB Jacobs, and a vertical pass game with Watson and Golden. And yes, Love has that "it" factor. Remember, the last time the Packers went on the road for a Wild Card Playoff game was 2023 at Dallas and he surgically dissected that secondary. Bears' pass rush in lower tier of NFL and we'll look for GB to get in the end zone. Defensively, GB can't replace Parsons (out) but collectively have a pretty tough defense. Jury still out on QB Caleb Williams and I'm not buying in yet. Packers the call. 

Rams/Panthers 4:30: Panthers defeated the Rams at this location November 30th. Panthers not in the same class as the Rams but do play hard at Bank of America Stadium. And even though they backed into the playoffs with help (Atlanta), they've been competitive most the year and 3-0 as a double-digit dog. Bryce Young is clearly no Mathew Stafford but he does have some quality support: Coker, McMillan, Dowdle. And defensively, some playmakers at each level including DE Derrick Brown and CB Horn. We'll look for Carolina to stick around at this location. 

Ravens/Steelers 8:20: Steelers know what they have to do Sunday night: stop Derrick Henry who's running wild. He ran all over Pittsburgh in Week 4 yet Steelers managed to squeak a 27-22 win out. Today, Steelers have rookie run-stopping sensation - DT Derrick Harmon back. When he's playing, Steelers' defense allows a significantly smaller number of yards on the ground. Moreover, T.J. Watt (lung) is back and feeling much better. Steelers just 3-11 SU when he's out. Sure, Metcalf is a big loss, but Rodgers still has enough weaponry to keep this competitive. And keep in mind that Lamar Jackson has lost three straight in Pittsburgh. And don't sleep on Tomlin off an ATS loss and facing division: 11-1 ATS! Steelers the call. 

Lions/Bears 4:25: Caleb Williams looking to break single season franchise passing record and should do it easily today. Lions have key defensive secondary personnel out. Offensively, their best lineman - Sewell - is out. Bears' defense has thrived on takeaways this year and catching an out of sync Lions' offense at its worst time. Bears off a disappointing loss last week but have demonstrated that bounce back ability off losses at 3-0 ATS in their last 3. And somewhat of a revenge game for Ben Johnson and company. His old team dismantled the Bears in Week 2. Bears are much improved since then. Attrition and Campbell not willing to relinquish calling plays has done in the Lions. Lions are 0-4 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. Chicago, still playing for higher seeding, should deliver. 

Dolphins/Patriots 4:25: Despite the missing defensive starters for New England, Patriots should blow by Miami here. Patriots are playing to lock up top seed in the conference. They should generate explosive plays in the frigid Foxboro weather against the warm-blooded Dolphins. Vrabel 12-4 ATS off SU/ATS division win. 

Dolphins/Patriots 4:25: Patriots still looking to lock up conference's top seed. Vrabel should let his starters play. Offense in a nice rhythm with Maye and should play target practice against a Dolphins' defense that allows a whopping 71% completions. On the flip side, Patriots do have a number of starters who are out. Dolphins' offense has some big play potential behind Ewers and also can give up big plays against an opportunistic Patriots' defense. These teams have combined for 7-1 O/U in their last 4 games. Dolphins 13-5 O/U as a dog of more than 5 points. 

Seattle/San Francisco 8:00: Purdy playing off the charts and will most likely have another target back - George Kittle. Sure, SF defense ravaged with injuries, but DC Saleh has done a bang-up job keeping them competitive. Seattle's Darnold still has question marks in big games. And this one is for the division crown. SF a sweet 9-1 ATS as a home dog vs an opponent off a SUATS win. Shanahan has done a great job this season with the injury-stricken 49ers and we'll look for him to get the season sweep tonight. 

Seahawks/49ers 8:00: 49ers' offense unstoppable lately but weather and field conditions could be the best defense against them. A steady rain has and will slow the grass field down tonight. Seattle has a staunch defensive front that can limit run game and keep 49ers from dictating tempo. Seattle offense weakened with left tackle (Cross) out and his backup questionable. SF DC Saleh has done a masterful job with the injury ravaged defense. And Darnold is not at his best in big games with stakes highest (for division title). We'll look for the weather conditions to play a rare role in keeping this one "under". 

Panthers/Bucs 4:30: Both of these teams not dependable. The least predictable team is TB. They started red hot and now on a 1-7 slide losing 4 straight. Baker Mayfield has not been a good favorite in his career at 19-34-2 ATS. Carolina, however, has alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games. After falling to Seattle last week, Panthers due to deliver a win to keep the trend alive and we'll roll with them to sweep this series. Panthers win division with a win.

Rams/Falcons 8:15: Atlanta appears to be closing season strong. But beware of smoke and mirrors. The teams they beat are both on a losing free fall - TB and Arizona. They're now running into a pissed off Rams team that narrowly lost to top tier team - Seattle. LA sports the #1 offense in the NFL and McVay should draw circles around Raheem Morris' brain. Morris a poor 3-15 as a home dog. Falcons 2-5 ATS as a MNF dog. Rams' Stafford a sweet 6-1 ATS after the Rams surrendered more than 31 points. Rams the call. 

Bears/49ers 5:20: SF had 7 sacks of QB Williams last year in a blowout win. Bears offensive line much better this season and SF ability to rush passer lacking bad (32nd) because of injuries. DC Saleh has done a tremendous job developing 2nd level players to be ready when called upon. But Chicago offense cooking and should stay in this game even though Odunze out. Still have enough weaponry. SF won't have Kittle (ankle) and that's a big loss. Take Chicago to keep it tight. 

Eagles/Bills 4:25: Inclement weather expected in Buffalo. Not to worry. These teams rely on ground and pound. And the run stop unit of Buffalo leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Bills RB Cook is a mudder. The AFC's leading rusher has done a lot of damage in bad weather this season. McDermott is 9-1 O/U off an away game vs an opponent off a SU away win. We'll go "over". 

Seahawks/Panthers 1:00: Panthers a dangerous 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home dog roles. Panthers vying to win the NFC South. Bryce Young mentored well by Canales. Defensively, a few Carolina players left off Pro Bowl roster, including dominant DE Derrick Brown will have a chip on their shoulder. Seattle maybe peaking ahead to season finale at San Francisco. We'll grab the points. 

Cardinals/Bengals 1:00: Joe Burrow on a tear down the stretch of the season and should light up a ravaged Arizona secondary. Moreover, Cardinals in the bottom tier of the league in sacks and pressures. We'll roll with Cincinnati. 

Ravens/Packers 8:00: Packers are in the playoffs by virtue of the Detroit loss Thursday. They can now extinguish playoff hopes for Baltimore with a win here. Love and Jackson - both starting QBs are out. I liked how backup Willis came in and directed the offense in the OT loss to the Bears. He's a little banged up but good to go. He's got support with a solid offensive line and a running game with Jacobs. Ravens go with backup Huntley who doesn't have the punch that a healthy Lamar Jackson gives them. Defensive edge goes to Packers. GB the call.

Texans/Chargers 4:30: Last season, the Texans crushed the Chargers 32-12 in the AFC Wild Card Round. QB Herbert threw 4 interceptions /43.8% completions in what was his worst outing of his career. It haunted him the entire season. Herbert, still healing from a broken non-throwing hand, has been on a mission lately, despite his injury. He's led the Chargers on a 7-1 SU run, including 4-0 SU/ATS tear down the stretch. Unlike last year, when all he had was McConkey and veteran journeyman TE Dissly to throw to, he has much more skill help to throw to. Houston is rolling and their defense is stifling; however, they, like the Chargers have their share of injuries on both sides of the ball. We'll look for the revenge motive to kick in as Herbert stays locked in. Chargers 4-0-1 ATS with revenge off SU dog win. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:15: Chiefs used to playing for championships and not surviving a season. With Mahomes (ACL) out, so goes the Chiefs. They are now on an 0-7 ATS free fall. Broncos, on the other hand, are competing with the Chargers to win the division and get a first round bye. Just a year ago, Chiefs, in command of the AFC West, rested their starters in the final regular season game against this very Broncos team. Broncos pummeled them 38-0. A similar second tier team takes the field today vs a hungry Broncos' team. We'll look for it to get ugly again. 

Lions/Vikings 4:30: Detroit sports a 9-1 ATS run in this series. The one loss was November 2nd in Detroit -27-24. Detroit comes into this one off a devastating home defeat to Pittsburgh, their second straight loss for the first time in two seasons. Now, they must win their last two games and hope Green Bay loses both of theirs. Vikings are out of the playoffs but finishing strong on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. They go into this one beat up with multiple skill and linemen injuries. QB Max Brosner will be at the helm. Not sold on him and a depleted roster leading the charge despite going against a struggling defense.  Detroit does have injuries of their own, including questionable RB Montgomery and WR Amon Ra-St. Brown. But Goff still equipped with enough weaponry to get by the aggressive Flores defense. Detroit sports a strong 10-3 ATS mark in division same season revenge. Detroit the call. 

Cowboys/Commanders 1:00:  Dallas has covered 5 straight in this series and this should be the 6th. Both teams eliminated from playoff contention and on losing streaks. Washington on a disastrous 2-9 ATS slide. Defense has been a major problem. Washington ranks at the bottom of virtually every defensive category. That spells big trouble vs garbage time king - Dak Prescott. Mr. Regular Season himself, or the king of games that don't matter, he'll light you up. Look for him to pad the stats, not only for himself, but for Lamb, and Pickens - who is looking to get a long-term deal with Dallas. As for Washington offense, it will be led by 39-year-old Josh Johnson, jack of all systems (he's been in nine different ones) but master of none. He's 1-8 in 8 starts. Dallas defense pathetic but do rise to the occasion against inferior personnel. Dallas the call. 

Colts/49ers 8:15: Playoff implications apply for both teams. Perhaps Indianapolis the more desperate team off 4 straight losses. Rivers, who had the unfortunate break to go against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, could settle in a bit more tonight. SF is near the bottom of the league in registering sacks and QB pressures; consequently, he can have another split second to locate his receivers on deeper routes. He's got support of quality skill personnel and a good offensive line. Defensively, Colts get Buckner (active) back to help solidify their defensive front. Colts' backend thin, especially with Gardner (calf) out, but they're coached well. We'll look for the home dog and more desperate team to hang around tonight. 

Steelers/Lions 4:25: Can't see the Steelers hanging with Detroit here. Steelers are banged up along their offensive line and on a short week. Watt (punctured lung) won't play for the second week. Steelers 2-11 without Watt. Campbell is a sweet 13-1 ATS off a SU loss. Detroit has been successful as a TD+ favorite at home this season. They've covered as a home favorite in this TD range 3X this season. Detroit the call. 

Raiders/Texans 4:25: Bad matchup. Raiders looking for the top pick in the draft while the Texans are prepping for playoffs. Texans' defense nasty #1 in Total Yards and Points Allowed. They have a vicious front line that doesn't need to blitz to sack QBs with bookends Anderson and Hunter. Moreover, a ball hawking secondary and that doesn't bode well for interception king - Geno Smith, who should be back under center. Raiders' offensive line just not getting it done - allowing sacks and poor run blocking. Texans' offense starting to gel as the receiving corps getting healthy and run game clicking behind improving offensive line. We'll lay the wood here. 

Chargers/Cowboys 1:00: By virtue of the fact that the Eagles won Saturday, Cowboys are officially eliminated; consequently, the Cowboys won't be as hungry. Some Cowboys may drop off even further. Pickens production down to 8 catches for 70 yards the last 2 games. LT Guyton (ankle) will miss 4th straight game. Chargers' hunger should remain ravenous. They can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Raiders or 49ers win. Chargers have a few guys out but Harbaugh's "next man up" mentality is already ingrained in the culture. Chargers have won at Dallas in their last 3 trips. Los Angeles the call. 

Bucs/Panthers 1:00: Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in this series but Carolina is vastly closing the gap in team play under Canales. He did an amazing job developing Mayfield as the OC in TB before coming over to coach Carolina. Mayfield's shoulder injury effecting his play in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Canales has developed Bryce Young into a respectable QB. Panthers are 6-0 ATS off a loss and a dangerous home team. Bowles struggling to take control of TB on an 0-6 ATS slide. We'll grab Carolina. 

Vikings/Giants 1:00: Both teams not going to the playoffs but one is finishing strong while the other is increasing their draft stock. Vikings are off two straight wins while QB McCarthy is developing in the process. Giants are tuning out the coaching staff as Kafka released DC Bowen. Giants defense has plummeted to the bottom of the league. Vikings' O'Connell sports a 7-1 ATS mark vs an opponent off a home game and 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins. We'll grab Minnesota. 

Packers/Bears 8:20: Battle of attrition down the stretch. Both teams have their share of injuries. Packers, perhaps, have losses a little deeper. Parsons - a game wrecker and key interior run stopper Wyatt will hurt defensively. Bears' injuries involve receiving weapons Odunze (foot) and Burden III (ankle). DJ Moore, who was virtually nonexistent in first matchup, will need to step up with Zaccheaus and TE Loveland. Swift (Q) and Monangai will need to keep run game going to alleviate pressure on QB Williams against a stout GB defense. Bears sport a +20-turnover margin and will need to make plays. We'll look for the much-improved Bears to get their revenge here. 

Rams/Seahawks 8:15: The two top teams in the NFC square off and the atmosphere will be at a fever pitch. Stafford is a prime-time QB and surely up for the challenge even without team TD leader - Davonte Adams. Atwell and Whittington can pick up some of the slack. Darnold has not proven to be that prime timer yet. Rams picked him off 4 times November 16th. And he has yet to step up strong in BIG games. The Seahawks Red Zone Efficiency has been poor the last 3 games (bottom tier of league). This is a big same season revenge game. HC Macdonald just 2-7 ATS with revenge. And not having their top lineman LT Cross (out) is trouble vs sack hungry Verse and company. Sunday, the Rams gave up a lot of points to the Lions (31). Stafford is a sweet 7-0 ATS in games after Rams surrender 31 points or more! Rams the call. 

Miami/Pittsburgh 8:15: Concerned that T.J. Watt won't be playing (lung) because of the dry needling incident and a key member of their offensive line - LT Peat. And Miami is on a 4-game winning streak - playing their best ball. Both teams are currently in the hunt for a playoff spot. Going to give the edge to Pittsburgh here, still. It will be cold (22 degrees) with possible snow flurries and that fits Steeler football. Rodgers thrives in cold weather. Miami, however, is 0-13 when temperature dips to freezing, including 0-5 for Tua. Moreover, Steelers have been tremendous on MNF. And Tomlin is a sweet 12-3 ATS off SU dog win. Miami a money burning 3-12 ATS as a MNF road dog. Steelers the call. 

Colts/Seahawks 4:25: Tough matchup for the Colts. As much as I like Steichen and what he's doing with his team, this should be tough sledding. The Colts' secondary is depleted, including their recent acquisition of Sauce Gardner (calf). So, who is going to man up against Smith-Nijigba? No one has stopped him yet. If they bracket or double him, there's always Kupp, Shaheed, Walker, Charbonnet as great 2nd and check down choices. Darnold has been protected (#1 sacks allowed) extremely well and Colts which employ a mix of zone and man in Anarumo's defense.  And defensively, Seattle has the #1 defense in the NFL in terms of yards per play, really good against the run and can bring pressure with limited blitz (#4). I really like Phillip Rivers and realize he's worked with Steichen before in this very system; however, I see it as a monumental task to go on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and be in cadence and in sync with his receivers this quickly. Seahawks have been thrashing teams at home. Colts 0-6 ATS as a dog vs NFC under Steichen. Seattle the call. 

Commanders/Giants 1:00: Both defenses rank in the bottom of the league in most categories. Commanders' defense is old, difficulty rushing the passer and a secondary that gets torched routinely. NYG offense, not an offensive juggernaut by any standard, but had an extra prep week, Dart is healthy and a near full arsenal of skill players. Washington won't have Daniels, but Mariota is overdue to get in a good, FULL game. He won't have Ertz (IR), but Samuel, McLaurin and Rodriguez, and even career underachieving vertical threat - Burks, should burn a routinely toasted secondary. Washinton HC Quinn 7-1 O/U vs opponent with revenge. Despite the snowy/rainy weather, we'll look for some explosives and chaotic turnovers to put this one "over". 

Ravens/Bengals 1:00: Both teams on the verge of dropping out of playoff race. Defenses have been horrible. Bengals won't have Higgins (concussion) but it won't matter. Burrow will light up a secondary with Chase and whomever is available to run a route. Ravens have had trouble rushing the passer (30th in league) and spells danger against one of the top QBs in the league. On the other hand, Cincinnati hasn't stopped anybody this season (last in NFL in most categories). Revenge minded Ravens should be able to get their offense rolling. Bengals are 13-4 O/U in division home games when coming off an away game. "Over" it is. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: Chargers off a short week but lots to play for. They can separate themselves from KC with a win by inching themselves to WC spot. Harbaugh a sweet 11-1 ATS off a non-division foe vs opponent off back-to-back losses. And he's 9-3 ATS vs less than .500 foes. Hard to believe the Chiefs are a game below .500 this late in the season; after all, that's unprecedented in the Mahomes era. But dropped passes, questionable coaching decisions, and penalties on both sides of the ball hurting them. And with Mahomes missing half of his offensive line, it won't get any easier against one of the top defenses in the NFL. KC just 2-10 ATS at home in a division game off a non-division opponent. Chargers the call. 

Falcons/Bucs 8:15: As pathetic of a team the Falcons have turned into, they should be competitive here; after all, they're 5-2 ATS in this series and the last 5 have been extremely competitive and tight, including an OT game. They're looking to avenge opening game 23-20 home loss to their division rival. Falcons are a sweet 12-2 ATS with division revenge vs an opponent off a SU loss. TB was hot early in the season and now cooling off substantially. I went against them last week vs New Orleans (+9) and they lost outright. Mayfield does have a full slate of his receivers back but that left shoulder (which sealed his Browns' fate) has reemerged. The Bucs are on a 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide. Mayfield has completed just 46.7% of his passes over the last 3 games. And Mayfield is now 19-33-2 ATS as a favorite. Atlanta's HC Morris is a horrible head coach, and his days are numbered; however, they still have immense talent including a couple stud RBs, a dominant but underachieving TE Pitts and a few good receivers tonight in Mooney and Sills V at the disposal of QB Cousins. Defensively, a solid coordinator - Ulbrich- who should be able to keep TB at bay. I went against Atlanta last week vs Seattle (Top Play); tonight, in a battle of two struggling teams in a crappy division, take the revenge dog!

Eagles/Chargers 8:15: This line suggests Herbert (hand) will play. With Lance as the starter, we'll see 5.5. As of now, it looks like Herbert is a go despite days ago having screws inserted in his left hand. Amazingly, he had limited reps in practice on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Good news for LA is that A Gap stuffer Jalen Carter is out. And Eagles' back-end coverage not what it was last year around this time. And RB Vidal is running great, and he has Hampton coming off the IR and good to go. Harbaugh a sweet 10-4 ATS as a dog vs non-division. Sirianni a money burning 1-9 ATS off SU loss and back-to-back ATS losses. We'll grab the Chargers. 

Texans/Chiefs 8:20: I hate going against Patrick Mahomes, especially on Prime Time TV, but I'm taking the points here. Chiefs face the #1 defense in the NFL that can not only get after the QB but also have a ball hawking secondary that allows the lowest completion % in the NFL. With half of the Chiefs starting offensive line out, this could be trouble. On the flip end, Chiefs' defense has been a disappointment - giving up the highest completion % to opposing QBs and in the bottom tier in penalties. Houston offense starting to get better after early season struggles as the offensive line is getting healthy, RB Marks playing well and Stroud getting in rhythm with receivers. Demarco Ryans 7-1 ATS off division game vs .500 or greater team. We'll take the points. 

Saints/Bucs 1:00: For a 2-10 team, Saints competitive. They covered their last two road games and in a revenge mode here from their October 26th 23-3 home loss. Late in that game, Tyler Shough was inserted as the QB for Rattler. Shough has shown promise in Kellen Moore's offense. TB defense has been yielding since that game - on an 0-4 ATS slide. TB hasn't looked well during that run - injuries have played a part. And as great as Baker Mayfield is as a dog, he's not a money maker as a favorite. Mayfield 19-32-2 ATS as a favorite as a starter. We'll grab the Saints, which are a spectacular 11-0 ATS as a division dog of more than 4 points. 

Pittsburgh/Baltimore 1:00: I'm going to believe that Pittsburgh's performance last week was a complete outlier - that no NFL team can play that bad with so much on the line on their home field. Steelers should have enough pride to bounce back on the road vs their division rival whom they beat 7 of the 10 SU. Lamar Jackson is not the healthiest with a sore ankle. Rodgers' non-throwing hand wrist getting better, and another chance to gain respect in Steeler nation. In division games, Tomlin is a sweet 10-1 ATS off an ATS loss. Steelers the call. 

Seahawks/Falcons 1:00: Falcons will occasionally tease you into believing they're a legitimate threat in the NFC South as exhibited in September and October with upsets of Minnesota and Buffalo. And then when you start believing, Raheem Morris will bleed you dry. Morris is now 3-13 ATS as a home dog. Seattle, on the other hand, a serious contender in the NFC - on an 8-2 ATS tear and 5-1 on the road. They have the #1 rush defense in the NFL and 3rd in scoring allowed. Cousins won have top target London (out) to throw to. Seattle offense cooking and we're laying the wood. 

Cowboys/Lions 8:15: Cowboys are white hot on a 3-0 SU/ATS run and seeking revenge from last year's 47-9 demolition on their home field. Cowboys' offense thriving - #1 yards/#2 scoring as Lamb and Pickens are a serious threat to all secondaries. And Detroit's secondary suffering ill effects of not having C Arnold (IR) and S Kerby (knee). And Detroit, which didn't have a sack last Thursday, will need to generate pressure on Prescott who is at his best when not pressured. We'll have confidence Lions' DC Sheppard limiting the potent Dallas run game and dialing up pressure on the QB. Offensively, St. Brown (ankle) should be a go. Goff, who normally has the most amount of time to find receivers (2.99 seconds) does have a banged up line but four of the five are questionable and should be a go in this important game to, perhaps, keep them in line for a Wild Card. Dallas defense much improved from earlier in the year, but Detroit has a surplus of explosive weapons, including RB Gibbs and WR Williams. And let's not forget that HC Campbell is a sweet 13-1 ATS off a loss. Detroit the call. 

Dallas/Detroit 8:15: These teams are a combined 15-9 O/U on the year. This game shouldn't be as one sided as last year; after all, Dallas now has an explosive offense that's rolling on all cylinders. And Detroit's secondary is banged up and vulnerable. On the other hand, Dallas secondary will be tested against a Detroit offense that rolls on this field. Detroit 8-0 O/U after a Thursday game. And they're 12-1 O/U as non-division conference home favorite vs less than .1000 opponent. And Campbell is 20-7 O/U vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. "Over" the call. 

Giants/Patriots 8:15: Giants are 3-0 ATS on their last 3 non-division road games. They've gone through personnel injuries and coaching changes, most recently - DC Bowen let go this week. Despite the changes, they've been a competitive 5-2 ATS in their 1-6 SU slide. Good news, the Giants get back QB Dart today. He missed the last two games and did well in his 7 starts (10 TD/3 INTs). And despite the loss of 2 key weapons - Skattebo and Nabers, others (Robinson, Slayton, TE Johnson stepping up to fill some of the void. Defensively, strong front line but linebackers and secondary need to step it up. NE QB Maye has been sacked the 3rd most times in the league; despite that, he's been great at finding ways of keeping the chains moving. He will be challenged even more this week for his starting LT Campbell and LG Wilson out. Patriots on a 9-0 SU run but getting overvalued on a 1-3 ATS slide. We'll look for the Giants to stick around. 

Bills/Steelers 4:25: Bills coming off a physical beat down to Houston. Josh Allen playing well but receiving corps thin. Had to pick up veteran Brandon Cooks this week. Steelers won 4 of their last 5 at home and should be able to bounce back with a strong game here after coming up short at Chicago last week. QB Rodgers (left wrist) should be good to go. Steelers should get their sputtering run game going against one of the league's worst run stop units. And Buffalo offensive line should continue to be vulnerable with staring tackles down. We'll take the home dog.  

Raiders/Chargers 4:25: Chargers off a rare blowout loss. They had a week to correct pass protection issues along offensive line. We'll look for Herbert and company to get it together here vs a tired Raiders' defense which is continually stressed with a severe lack of production from their offense. Raiders' offensive line issues have gotten extreme. OC Kelly gone as a result. It will be hard for a quick fix with limited talent at wide receivers, patchwork offensive line, and a mediocre QB. Chargers' defense should step up their game here. Harbaugh historically puts away less than .500 teams. Chargers should sweep series with authority. 

49ers/Browns 1:00: 49ers on a short week have to travel cross country to cold, snowy Cleveland, Ohio. Purdy looking shaky in return and now has to face one of the top defenses in the NFL. Offensively, Browns will look to establish the run game with Judkins and Sampson behind a veteran offensive line to protect rookie QB Sanders. 49ers' defense working through injuries but tall task here on a short week. Host in this series 4-0 SU/ATS. Browns the call. 

Houston/Indianapolis 1:00: Houston has won 4 of the last 5 SU in this series. They're coming off a huge win against Buffalo and had a few extra days rest to prepare for the productive offense of Indy. DC Ryans doing a great job schematically preparing for teams. Houston controls one of the top defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and points. And bookends Anderson and Hunter wreaking havoc on QBs. Daniel Jones (fibula) will surely be tested in locating receivers quickly. Texans backend also bolstered with the return of Pitre. Houston will surely be prepared for RB Jonathon Taylor. Texans in top tier in rush yards allowed. Offensively, Stroud cleared to play. Skill and linemen personnel getting healthier; consequently, we'll look for more production from offense. 

Bears/Eagles 3:00: Bears on a nice roll and dangerous as a dog this season. But linebacker corps devastated with injuries. And that doesn't bode well against a defense that gives up 136 YPG when healthy. Eagles should finally get their sputtering run game going today. Defensively, Eagles DC wasn't happy with the Eagles' defense giving up 24 unanswered points. Look for a more disciplined Eagles defense today. Technically, Eagles 13-1 ATS vs opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins. Eagles the call. 

Chiefs/Cowboys 4:30: Chiefs saved their season last week with heroics from Mahomes late in the game. We'll look for them to follow up here with a win. Not entirely sold on the Cowboys' defense, which has gotten better with mid-season acquisitions - especially filling the defensive line and edge: Williams, Clark, Clowney; however, backend still vulnerable. Cowboys play zone defense 72% of the time and no team dissects a zone defense better in the NFL this year than Mahomes and KC. Mahomes (groin) has nearly all his weapons - Worthy, Thornton, Brown, Rice, Kelse, Hunt, and Pacheco is good to go. Defensively, KC defense in good hands with DC Spagnuolo to slow down Prescott and company. This line dropped down in our range from -4 and I'll lay the FG.  

Packers/Lions 1:00: Last Thanksgiving, Lions finally got a win (3-point win over Bears) after a long drought. Green Bay has won back-to-back Thanksgiving games including in 2023 over the Lions. At first glance, revenge is in order for Campbell and company after losing to the Packers on opening day. And Lions are a sweet 11-5 ATS at home vs their division. But the Honolulu blue and silver machine is not operating on all cylinders. Offensive line is beat up, so much to the point that their former All-Pro C Ragnow has to come off his couch and out of retirement to return to them. He won't be activated this week. Packers' defense playing at a high level off blowout of Minnesota. Goff is having trouble against pressure this year - bottom tier of QBs. On the other hand, a separated left shoulder, QB Love is picking up his game. RB Wilson (107 yards last week) did a nice job vs Minnesota. Jacobs (knee) could be ready Thursday. GB offensive line doing a solid job and their tackles are winning at a high rate against the rush. Hutchinson has struggled a bit with QB pressures in recent weeks. Moreover, not a fan of HC Campbell calling plays. He had a few critical errors, one before the half and one near the end of regulation with clock management. We'll grab the points here as the Packers are a dog for the first time this season. 

Panthers/49ers 8:15: Bryce Young threw for a career high 448 yards last week at Atlanta. Falcons have a solid rush and stout in the secondary. 49ers, on the other hand, are devastated with injuries to key personnel at all 3 levels. They can't rush the passer (last in NFL) and struggling on the back end (bottom tier pass defense). Carolina should stick around here. 

Panthers/49ers 8:15: Panthers are 12-0 O/U as dogs o less than 9 points vs NFC West. Bryce Young coming off a career day passing last week at Atlanta. SF defense is reeling with injuries across the board. They can't rush the passer (32nd in league) and their backend is young and getting exposed. On the other hand, Brock Purdy is back in action with a near full offensive arsenal. Over the call. 

Bucs/Rams 8:20: Bucs off a couple of tough losses but should be competitive here. Bowles 9-2 ATS off a SU loss. TB should have Godwin back for a few reps to help out Mayfield. And like the versatility of RB Sean Tucker who has emerged as a reliable replacement for Bucky Irving in the interim. Need the TB defense to step up its game vs a dangerous Rams' offense. TB 8-0 ATS as a non-division road dog of more than 3 points. TB the call 

Eagles/Cowboys 4:25: Eagles' offense not the same under OC Patullo. But Vic Fangio's defense hitting stride. A masterful performance from the Eagles' defense last week shutting down one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league. When Fangio has those healthy Georgia alums: Davis, Carter, Dean, Nolan Smith all playing together, it's lights out. And on the back end, CB Mitchell starting to play like a #1 draft pick now. Dallas offense prolific, but won't bet against Fangio scheming, considering the September 4th underachieving. And although Dallas defense improving with new mid-season additions, they're still not at a high tier level to stop the high caliber talent the Eagles possess. Philly the call. 

Colts/Chiefs 1:00: I don't believe the Chiefs are done yet. They've taken on a pretty tough schedule and, unlike last season, lost the close games to wind up at 5-5. We'll look for the heart of a champion to show up today against an emerging class of the AFC - Indianapolis. 

Seahawks/Titans 1:00: On paper a mismatch and I see it spelling out the same way on the field. Seahawks' defense made a sizzling hot Matt Stafford look mediocre last week. Today, in an ornery mood off a loss, they should make a real mediocre QB Ward look miserable. Ward has been sacked more times than any QB in the league and his receiving corps is paper thin. On the other hand, look for QB Darnold to bounce back big. He's been sacked the fewest times in the league, has a run game backing him and usually lights up sub .500 teams, especially thin secondaries. Seahawks should get back on track big here. 

Bills/Texans 8:15: Bills got their offense cooking again last week but face a much tougher test against Houston. Texans have the #1 defense in the NFL allowing 16.3 PPG. Texans do have a few secondary guys out (Ward/Pitre) but are deep on the back end. Bills' Josh Allen dangerous with feet and through the air, but like the lane integrity discipline of Houston while bookends Anderson and Hunter are dangerous off the edge. And I don't believe RB Cook will run roughshod on this defense with LBs Al-Shaair and E.J. Speed filling gaps. On the other hand, offense will be forced to go with Davis Mills (Stroud out) again. He has proven he is a capable backup. Texans' offensive line improving as the season moves on. And former USC Trojan Marks is running well with always reliable Chubb getting a share of carries. Buffalo defense has not been good stopping the run this season (153 YPG/5.4 YPC) ranked near bottom of league. Texans hang around in games because of their rock-solid defense. And Buffalo has a number of receivers out (TE Kincaid/WRs Hardman, Samuel, Coleman) which puts more pressure on Josh Allen. Texans' HC Ryans 7-1 ATS off a division win vs an opponent over .500. Take the points with the home team. 

Cowboys/Raiders 8:15: Over the bye week, Cowboys bolstered their front 7 with LB Logan Wilson and DT Quinnen Williams. Although secondary issues are still apparent. Raiders' offensive line hit by injuries and that's a concern. Raiders will have to shorten routes for Geno Smith and out scheme the yielding Dallas defense. Playmakers Jeanty, Bowers and Tucker will have to step it up. Cowboys just 1-4 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 outright as a road favorite. The home dog on MNF is 5-3-1 SU / 6-3 ATS. Raiders have hung tough in their last 3 home games, and we'll take the points here. 

Lions/Eagles 8:20: Lions have alternated wins and losses with a blowout win last Sunday at Washington. The problem is they're banged up defensively with three key starters hobbling. Eagles are overall healthy. And despite the offensive struggles, the grind out style of the Eagles offense and wizardry from the schematics of DC Fangio, we'll take Philly here. 

Seahawks/Rams 4:05: Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off. We'll go with the better QB of the two. Stafford is a proven big game winner; Darnold, although sizzling hot, failed in a few much needed games last year while at Minnesota - at Detroit (last game of year for homefield), and the next week in the playoffs vs these very Rams. And let's not forget that the Rams are +7 in turnover margin whereas the Seahawks are minus 4. Edge to Rams. 

Bucs/Bills 1:00: Mayfield always dangerous as an underdog; moreover, he's even more dangerous as a dog off a loss at 7-3 ATS. TB HC Bowles is a sweet 9-1 ATS on the road off a SU loss. Bucs have some key weapons out - Evans, Irving, Godwin; however, Egbuka, Rachaad White, Tez Johnson, Cade Otton, Shepard are enough to get it done offensively. Bills' defense misses Ed Oliver (IR). The Bills' defense has one of the worst run stop units in the NFL - allowing 148 YPG/5.5 YPC. We'll roll with TB. 

Chargers/Jaguars 1:00: Chargers' HC Harbaugh has done an amazing job in getting his team back on track. Missing both starting offensive tackles, Chargers' Herbert got it going after a few tweaks in the offense -developing shorter routes and blitz pick up scheming. And the defense is back to playing lights out. Jacksonville has a few offensive struggles and their star draft pick - Travis Hunter out for season. Jaguars' defense having trouble getting to QB (lowest sack total in league with 12). Give Herbert time, he'll surgically pick a secondary apart. And like the RB Vidal. Chargers the call. 

Bears/Vikings 1:00: Vikings won the first game in this series in a dramatic come from behind win. It was QB McCarthy's first start and on the road. He's a bit more seasoned now and has a good mentor in O'Connell. Bears' QB Williams having a good year under first year HC Ben Johnson. What separates these teams is defense. Although Minnesota's defense not nearly as dominant as last year's, still better than Chicago's. Bears defense allowing 6.6 YPP (32nd) and 27.4 PPG (28th). We'll grab Minnesota. 

Jets/Patriots 8:15: Jets on a 2-game winning streak. But beating a defenseless Bengals team and exploiting special teams' weakness of Cleveland (Kickoff and punt return) not a validation of ability to compete at a high level. Breece Hall is a very good runner, and QB Fields is more dangerous with hit feet than his arm. With no top WR (Garrett Wilson out), the Jets should be limited to a one-dimensional offense. And New England defense is number 1 vs the run (allowing 79.2 YPG). And offensively, Patriots are back with a potent offense led by QB Maye. Jets could have used Quinnen Williams (traded) and Sauce Gardner (traded) here. Vrabel 7-2 ATS off a SU dog win vs a division opponent. Patriots the call. 

Eagles/Packers 8;15: Eagles got a gift from the schedule maker with a bye week after their drubbing of division foe NYG. They got a chance to heal up and get a few bodies back. Moreover, they bolstered their secondary with a pair of corners (Carter II from NYJ) and Jaire Alexander (Ravens) plus outside backer Phillips from Miami. Sirianni 4-0 ATS off a bye week. And the Eagles are 7-2 ATS off a double-digit division win. Furthermore, they're a perfect 11-0 ATS on MNF after scoring more than 35 points. They're 4-1 SU/ATS in this series. Packers won't have Love's go-to weapon Kraft (IR) although Musgrave a decent replacement. And K McManus just 11 of 16 in FG this season. Eagles offense #1 and #3 in not fumbling and interceptions, respectively. We'll give the edge to Eagles here. 

Lions/Commanders 4:25: Commanders free falling and catching the Lions at the wrong time. Lions off a SU loss under Campbell an electric 12-0 ATS. Moreover, they're 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference road games. Yes, the road doesn't seem to bother Detroit: 21-5 ATS as a traveler under Campbell. Mariota won't have his vertical threat - McLaurin (out). Ertz and Samuel are solid but offensive line issues and defense dragging Commanders down. And under Quinn, they're a money burning 2-13 ATS off back-to-back losses vs a team above .500. Detroit the call. 

Rams/49ers 4:25: 49ers got the best of LA in Los Angeles October 2nd in OT. Revenge is in order but just a tad too much to give to competitive 49ers team. QB Mac Jones getting it done in place of Purdy (toe). He has enough healthy weapons in McCaffrey, Kittle, Bourne, Jennings to keep them in this game. And SF DC Saleh does a bang-up job coordinating a defense that's using second tier players. With the dog in this series at 8-2 ATS including 5-0 ATS in its last 5, we'll stay on SF. 

Cardinals/Seahawks 4:05: Cardinals stay in games under Gannon. That's what they do; as a matter of fact, they haven't lost a game by more than 4 points this season. They're coming off a big road win at Dallas on Monday but are hungry to avenge the 9/25 tightly contested loss at home. In that one, QB Murray was sacked 6 times and threw 2 INTs. Veteran journeyman - Brissett doing a solid job in relief (6 TD/1 INT). Seattle looks like a serious playoff contender now but can't ignore that the Seahawks are 1-12 ATS off back-to-back SU wins (last by double digits) vs opponent off SU win. We'll grab the points again with the competitive Cardinals.

Ravens/Vikings 1:00: Not a popular pick considering the Ravens appear to be healthier and on a winning run. But Vikings proved they're no joke by going into Detroit last week and delivering an authoritative win. I won't sleep on O'Connell who's a strong 4-1 ATS in his last 5 home dog roles. Minnesota the call. 

Browns/Jets 1:00: Always cautious when labeling Browns a Top Play but this may warrant one. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and some key components along the offensive line have gotten healthy. That doesn't bode well against a Jets' defense that just traded away two of their top defensive players - Q Williams/Gardner. Their defense sits in the bottom tier of the NFL in sacks and scoring. Consequently, Brownies should be able to get their run game going with hard running RB Judkins. And QB Gabriel should have his vertical threat Cedric Tillman back. Browns defense will need to stay solid. We'll go with them!

Raiders/Broncos 8:15: Broncos on a 6-0 run while the Raiders are on a 1-6 slide. In the NFL, teams aren't as great as they appear nor are they as bad as they seem. We won't discount Pete Carroll and his coaching prowess. He's been a great prime time TV coach and an outstanding 14-4 ATS off consecutive losses. Sure, Raiders traded away Meyers but wouldn't be surprised if they they went to 12 Personnel (1 RB and 2 TEs) with Bowers now healthy and Mayer productive. Jeanty has shown flashes of brilliance this season. Obviously we need Geno Smith to go through his progressions quicker and check down if needed against the #1 sack team in the NFL. OC Chip Kelly has been around long enough to see everything and should have an effective game plan. Fortunately, Smith won't have to see Patrick Surtain (out) roaming the secondary. And defensively, Maxx Crosby and company will have to turn it up a few notches. Raiders got swept in this series last year. They're 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points with revenge vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos do have KC on deck. Denver 0-4 ATS vs their division on Thursday. Raiders the call. 

Cardinals/Cowboys 8:15: Can't side with Cowboys' defense ravaged in the secondary. They're defense is allowing a generous 31.2 PPG and bottom tier in the league in pass defense. QB Murray not ready to go but Brissett a very quality backup. And he's got some good weapons in TE McBride, Zay Jones and Harrison Jr. Running back depth is thin but speedster Demercado should get another chance as him and Bam Knight in the rotation. Cowboys' offense dangerous but defense gives up points as fast as they make them. Cardinals 11-1 ATS vs NFC East. We'll look for the well rested Cardinals to hang around again. 

Seahawks/Commanders 8:20: Commanders, losers of three straight, are in a desperation mode needing a win here. They do have Jayden Daniels at the helm, and he's got Samuel, McCaffrey and Ertz to go to with Bill in the backfield. Washington 9-1 ATS vs foe off back-to-back non division. Seattle, coming off a bye but just 1-5 ATS with rest. We'll take the home dog. 

Bears/Bengals 1:00: Bengals' defense unable to stop anyone. They're last in the league in YPG and points allowed. There is no reason why Bears' QB Williams, who has a healthy dose of receivers (Odunze, Moore, Kmet) at his disposal, shouldn't be able to lite up the Bengals feeble secondary. On the other hand, Bears have the most opportunistic defense in the NFL and sport a +10 turnover margin. They most likely will face Flacco (questionable) or Jake Browning (0-3 as starter) behind an inconsistent offensive line. Bears the call. 

Falcons/Patriots 1:00: Raheem Morris trends continue from his daze as coach of TB and first stint with Atlanta. His team will tease you with spurts of greatness - Sept 14th at Minnesota and Oct 13th at home vs Buffalo. And just when you think his team is playoff ready, his boys will crap themselves as exhibited at Carolina (30-0 stinker Sept 21st) and a 34-10 demolition against a powder puff Miami team last Sunday. Morris is 2-12 ATS vs .500 or greater opposition off back to back SU wins. And he is 2-10 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. We'll take the more stable franchise that's headed back in the right direction with HC Vrabel. Patriots the call. 

Colts/Steelers 1:00: Steelers' offense putting up points but their defense gives back way too much. Their secondary lost S Elliot last week and they were forced to acquire Dugger from NE. Pass defense has been troublesome for the Steelers and it won't get any easier today. Colts' QB Jones is having a banner year. And MVP favorite - RB Jonathon Taylor has been virtually unstoppable behind great blocking. Both offenses should be able reach the end zone repeatedly today. 

Chargers/Titans 1:00: Hate to lay double digits at this point in the season, but the disparity in team quality is glaring. After weeks of struggling with injuries - specifically at their offensive tackles, the Chargers got their mojo back on the 23rd vs Minnesota. Herbert has a near full arsenal of receivers and facing a bottom tier defense without their top lineman - Jeffrey Simmons. That spells big trouble for Tennessee. Moreover, the Titans rank dead last in scoring offense and face a physical and stingy Chargers' defense. Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS off non-division vs an opponent off back to back SU losses. Chargers the call. 

Baltimore/Miami 8:15: Lamar Jackson's return should ignite the offense. Last week, Huntley helped rev it up. RB Henry has helped significantly. The Ravens lead the league in YPC at 5.3. And Miami has not been good at stopping the run. Moreover, their secondary is getting even thinner with C Storm Duck placed on IR. On the other hand, Ravens are getting pieces back to their defense. But we won't dismiss the Miami offense which percolated against a good defense against Atlanta last week. Miami 12-2 O/U as dogs of more than 5 points. Baltimore 8-0 O/U vs less than .333 opponent. And the Ravens are 7-1 O/U on Thursday. "Over" the call. 

Commanders/Chiefs 8:15: Redskins' defense regressing under Quinn. They're giving up an abundance of explosive plays and allow a generous 24 PPG. That's a big problem vs a heated-up KC offense. And now that Mahomes has his full offensive arsenal, I don't see Washington stopping them. On the other hand, Commanders do have Deebo Samuel and McLaurin back in the fray; however, Daniels (hamstring) will not be dishing the ball to them. Mariota, who used to be an amazing runner, has slowed down and doesn't have the throwing skills to shred an improving KC defense under DC Spagnuolo. Dan Quinn a money burning 2-11 ATS off back-to-back losses vs an opponent over .500. And Reid sports an amazing 7-0 ATS mark as a double-digit home favorite off a division opponent; moreover, he's 14-5 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win. Chiefs the call. 

Packers/Steelers 8:20: Steelers' defense in the bottom tier in virtually all categories. They rush the passer well, but also give up explosive plays in the process. Packers' Love scores a strong 71.8% completions vs the blitz. And Josh Jacobs should get it rolling vs a struggling Steelers' run-stop-unit that let Chase Brown run all over them last Thursday. GB defense #1 in yards per play. We'll look for the Packers to rise to the occasion tonight. 

Packers/Steelers 8:20: Both defenses have their weaknesses and a pair of pretty good quarterbacks should find ways to exploit them tonight. Pittsburgh's Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps with Metcalf, Austin, TE Smith and RB Warren. GB defense is dead last in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. On the other hand, Jordan Love will finally have his vertical threat - Christian Watson - back in the fray to join a pretty talented receiving corps and versatile RB Jacobs. Last Thursday, Steelers' defense allowed the worst run offense in the league to run roughshod on them. And well traveled Flacco, who was on Cincinnati for a week, lit the secondary up like a torch. Steelers have the 31st pass defense in the league. We'll look for this one to go "over". 

Cowboys/Broncos 4:25: Cowboys' offense rolling but Denver defense is the best it's faced this season. Broncos' defense allows a league low 56%. They're also #1 in sacks and 4th in points allowed at 18 PPG. On the other hand, Cowboys' defense hemorrhaging points as fast as they get them. Cowboys allowing 29.4 PPG (30th). Broncos have an efficient offense under Payton. Nix doing a decent job in distributing the ball while RB Dobbins having a solid year (5 YPC) behind a strong offensive line. We'll lay the points with Denver. 

49ers/Texans 1:00: Shanahan doing his best coaching job in years. He's holding together a team that's been devastated by injuries yet has them at the top of the NFC West (5-2). Mac Jones doing a solid job in place of Purdy. He still has weapons with McCaffrey, Kittle and Jennings. The offensive line holding up well. Defensively, DC Saleh continues to work magic with second tier players. Houston, however, has an offense that just can't get rolling under first year OC Nik Caley. Stroud is constantly under duress, limited run game behind an offensive line that's not connected. Stroud has limited weaponry with Collins, Kirk and Dell (IR) on the rack. Defensively is where the Texans thrive but Shanahan should find a way once again to utilize his offensive arsenal. 49ers are 3-1 on the road and Shanahan sports a 9-2 ATS mark as a road dog vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. SF the call. 

Vikings/Chargers 8:15: Chargers on a 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS slide. We'll look for the bleeding to stop here. Chargers, who have been victimized by poor blitz pick up over their 4 game ATS slide. Over that span, Herbert has been sacked 11 times and hit more than any other QB. The good news is there is a strong possibility, and we're counting on it, that LT Joe Alt (ankle) returns to protect Herbert's blind side. Surely, blitz pick up is a priority this week vs blitz happy Vikings' defense. And uncharacteristic poor defense on Sunday, should improve under well respected DC Minter. Chargers' offense has the skill guys for Herbert (McConkey, Allen, Johnston) including TE Gadsden who had a breakout performance last week. And Vidal (5.2 YPC) is a solid back for the Chargers who have been ravaged by injuries in the backfield. Technically, Chargers a sweet 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses vs less than .600 opponent. And they're 4-1 ATS as a home favorite on Thursday night football. Chargers the call. 

Texans/Seahawks 10:00: At first glance, wanted the Seahawks here. Closer look reveals not so great news: Seahawks under Macdonald are a money burning 3-9 ATS at home. Sure, Darnold posts high marks in his QBR but exotic blitz packages give him trouble. And Demarco Ryans had an extra week to draw up a blitz variation against him. Texans, the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, have a solid backend, and the pass rush will test Darnold in finding his target. Offensively, Texans starting to heat up under OC Caley. Stroud more comfortable in scheme as he's taking less sacks and pass percentage going up. Offensive line still needs work to unleash RB Nick Chubb. Texans are 5-0 ATS after scoring 35+ vs an opponent off an ATS win. And Texans are 30-17-4 ATS on the road when coming off an away game. Given the extra prep week, we'll take the points with Houston. 

Bucs/Lions 7:00: Can't make this a Top Play (3*) on account of Detroit coming off a loss; after all, Dan Campbell a ridiculous 11-0 ATS off a SU loss. Then again, you won't be profitable going against Baker Mayfield as an underdog. Last season, Baker Mayfield was sacked 5X (Hutchinson had 4 1/2) yet still managed to rally the troops and even ran 11 yards for the winning TD with 34 seconds left. Mayfield has been doing it with reserve receivers who have stepped up in the process. Shepard, Tez Johnson and RB White the latest backups to shine. Tonight, Mayfield may have Egbuka (questionable) and Mike Evans (probable) back in the fray. And that doesn't bode well against a depleted Detroit secondary that now won't have Brian Branch (suspended). Bucs the call. 

Washington/Dallas 4:25: Not sold on the Cowboys despite getting another weapon (Cee Dee Lamb) back for Prescott. Washington secondary respectable and need to limit explosive plays today. That should be the emphasis in the defensive game plan. On the other hand, Cowboys' defense pathetic in virtually every category and could be even worse with top CB Diggs (concussion) on the shelf. We'll look for Daniels and company to clean their game up after a sloppy game on MNF vs Chicago. It won't be easy without Samuel and McLaurin. Even TE Ertz may sit out. Commanders can lean on their #1 run game with "Bill" to open up pass game. OC Kingsbury really good at exploiting weaknesses in defenses. Commanders 6-1 ATS as dogs of less than 6 in first of back-to-back road games. Washington the call. 

Packers/Cardinals 4:25: Most likely, veteran QB Brissett will get the start today as Murray (foot) sits. And that is fine. Brissett is a quality backup with good weapons: TE McBride, WR Harrison Jr., Zay Jones (questionable but should go). Cardinals have been competitive in every game this season. Gannon is always dangerous as a dog including 11-1 ATS as a dog in the second of back-to-back non-division games. GB, on an 0-3 ATS slide, has yet to win a game on the road. We'll look for the Cardinals to hang around.