Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Celts need to win tonight to force a seventh game, and I believe they will. They've been installed as a small underdog after their 110-107 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite in Game 5, and we'll take the points, as Boston is 17-2 ATS away from home in the playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread in their previous game by more than 7 points, including a perfect 12-0 ATS as a #3 seed (or better). Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-13-22 | Rangers -107 v. Penguins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Welcome to the Rangers must-win Game #2. Down three games to one, New York had to have a win at home on Wednesday to stay alive and it did just that. They have to do it again tonight and it will have to be in hostile territory but there are at least a couple of reasons to think the Rangers can force a Game 7 back in Manhattan. First, the Penguins will be forced to use their third-string goalie again tonight for the fifth straight game. Although 30-year-old journeyman Louis Domingue has been outstanding at times, it seems the Rangers have figured him out for the most part and the lapses he's been experiencing will only likely become more frequent. Look for Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and company to really turn up the heat on Domingue tonight. Second, Pens Captain Sidney Crosby was hit by the Rangers Jacob Trouba and had to leave Game 5 with an upper body injury. He is currently questionable for Game 6. The favorite is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-13-22 | Brewers -142 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Following up on his Cy Young winning campaign in 2021, Corbin Burnes is putting together another outstanding season so far. Through six starts, the 27-year-old RHP has posted a 1.86 ERA together with a 6.25 K:BB ratio (50 Ks and 8 BBs) as well as a league-leading 0.80 WHIP. Now if only he could find a way to win some games. Of course it hasn't helped that in Burnes' last three starts the Brewers have plated a total of four runs and in fact, it is the main reason he only has one W to his credit so far. That could certainly change tonight in Miami as the Brewers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings here at LoanDepot Park. And Burnes has done by far his best work on the road throughout his career. In 57 road games (23 starts) Burnes is 13-4 (.765) with a 2.88 ERA vs. just 11-9 and 3.53 in 51 games (24 starts) in Milwaukee. The Marlins are coming back to Miami after a seven-game road trip but that's not necessarily a good thing as they are 0-4 in their last four games here. Take the Brew Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game. Three of the first five games of this series have gone under the total (as well as nine of the last 13 meetings between these clubs), and we'll look for another low-scoring game here. Indeed, the last game went under by 25.5 points! And the last 3 games have gone under by an average of 16.16 ppg. Dallas has been installed as a home underdog in this game. And the Mavericks are now 40-13 UNDER when priced as an underdog of less than 6 points, including 8-1 UNDER its last nine at home. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-22 | Maple Leafs +120 v. Lightning | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Maple Leafs won a huge Game 5 on Tuesday at home, defeating the Bolts 4-3 to take a 3-2 series lead. Technically, tonight in Tampa is not a must-win situation, but the last thing the Leafs want to do is give the defending two-time Stanley Cup Champions a chance at a Game 7 back in Toronto -- especially considering how close Game 5 was. Key to the Tuesday night victory was Toronto Coach Sheldon Keefe showing confidence in goalie Jack Campbell after he fell apart in Game 4 (5 goals in 16 shots) and was replaced in the 3rd period by his back-up, Erik Kallgren. Keefe stuck with Campbell for Game 5 and the veteran net-minder came through, stopping 32 of 35 shots (.914) from one of the top scoring teams in hockey. On the other side, Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had his second sub-par game in a row, allowing four goals on just 25 shots (.840). With the Tuesday loss, the Bolts are now 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning % above .600. Take the Maple Leafs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat game. Three of the first five games have gone under the total in this series (as well as 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs), and I look for yet another relatively-low scoring game tonight. Indeed, the Heat have now gone under in 8 of their last 10 games, overall, while Philly has gone under in 7 of its last 10. Even better: the Sixers come into this game off a blowout 35-point loss. But the 76ers are 32-12 UNDER off a loss by 30+ points, while Miami is 20-4 UNDER when installed as an underdog vs. foes off a 25+ point defeat. Take Game 6 under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-22 | Mets -152 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. There's no question that RHP Taijuan Walker is struggling in his second season with the Mets. The veteran starter has posted a 4.91 ERA in three starts covering just 11 innings so far. But all three of those stars have come against the Phillies and Walker has never done particularly well against Philadelphia's baseball club. He'll likely be glad that he doesn't have to face them this afternoon. The once mighty Nationals don't look quite the same this season. Gone are players like Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Trey Turner and the only true superstar left on this squad is OF Juan Soto. Normally a .300 hitter, teams have been pitching around Soto enough this season that he's only managed roughly a .250 batting average and just 10 RBI over his first 117 at bats. Walker should be smart enough to do more of that today as the Mets try to extend their comfortable lead (6 games) in the NL East. The Mets are 4-2 in the last six meetings -- all of them here at Nationals Park. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Pittsburgh Penguins. After four playoff games, the only one of the eight NHL series where a team holds a 3-1 lead is this one. That's good news for the Penguins and bad news if you're a Rangers fan. New York must now win three games in a row to advance and even if it wins tonight, it has to go back to Pittsburgh where it was blown out on Monday. The Rangers smartly pulled Igor Shesterkin from the net in that game after two periods and six goals allowed. That should give the League's leading goalie a chance to regroup and come back fresh tonight. But if the Rangers are going to win tonight, they're going to have to up their shot output as they registered just 24 on Pens rookie (third string) goalie Louis Domingue in Game 4. A return to their form in the last game here where they logged 40 shots on goal (and won) is what we would expect to see tonight. The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings and the Penguins are 2-5 in the last seven here at Madison Square Garden. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. The Suns swept the regular season series from Dallas, 4-games-to-none, and then won the first two games of this Playoff series for a 6-game win streak this season. But the Suns lost Games 3 + 4 to knot this series at 2-games apiece. Still, Phoenix is a very profitable 17-6 ATS its last 23 vs. Dallas. Moreover, the Suns were installed as a road favorite in Game 4, yet lost by double-digits, 111-101. The good news for Chris Paul & Co. is that Phoenix is a powerful 15-0 ATS its last 15 off an upset road loss, if its opponent was off a double-digit cover. And Dallas is a dreadful 7-18 ATS off an upset playoff win, when matched up against .630 (or better) foes. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-22 | Rays -115 v. Angels | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Angels. When it comes to finding serviceable veteran talent at bargain-basement prices, no team comes close to the Rays. Case in point is Corey Kluber. At age 36, the RHP is clearly past his prime, but the two-time Cy Young Award winner still has some gas left in the tank as evidenced by his winning record (5-3) and 3.86 ERA in 16 starts for the Yankees last season. And just for good measure, Kluber threw in a no-hitter on May 19 in Texas. Anyway, the Rays saw an opportunity to sign him as a free agent and promptly did so for the team-friendly price of just $8 Million. So far the veteran has shown he's worth every penny of that and probably much more with a 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 4.17 K:BB ratio in his first five starts covering 26 2/3 innings. In eight career starts covering 51 1/3 innings vs. the Angels, Kluber is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Rays have dominated this series lately going 20-7 in the last 27 meetings and 32-12 in the last 44 here in Anaheim. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The NHL and TV networks must be very happy that all four of the series that are on tap for a Game 5 tonight are tied at two games apiece. Some of the teams however are not likely sharing in the joy. The Toronto Maple Leafs looked like they would potentially put Tampa away early when they won the first game in a rout and then did it again in Tampa in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. But every time Toronto takes the air out of Tampa's balloon, the Bolts have re-energized and made a statement of their own. Game 5 has now become absolutely critical for the home team after the Lightning put up seven goals on the Leafs in Game 4 chasing Toronto goalie Jack Campbell in the process. It remains to be seen if the Leafs go with back-up Erik Kallgren -- who stopped all 10 shots he faced -- tonight, but based on statements made by Coach Sheldon Keefe, he'll be sticking with Campbell. Andrei Vasilevskiy had his own problems in Game 4, stopping just 22 of 25 shots (.880). And Tampa's a wallet-breaking 5-7 (minus 11.4 net games on the moneyline) off a blowout home win by 3+ goals. Take the Leafs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-22 | Rays +122 v. Angels | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Anaheim Angels. Jeffrey Springs will match up against Noah Syndergaard tonight. We'll take the underdog Rays, as Tampa Bay is 113-63 (+34.9 net games) vs. righty starters, 47-40 (+18.1 net games) as an underdog, and 57-39 (+18.4 net games) its last 96 on the road. And while it's true that Syndergaard has been great this season (2.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), the Rays have excelled against excellent pitchers, as they're 14-4 their last 18 vs. American League pitchers with an ERA of 2.90 (or better), and 20-9 vs. AL pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 (or better). Meanwhile, Springs has given up just 1 earned run over 13 innings this season (0.69 ERA), and his WHIP is 0.77. Take the underdog Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks 'under' the total. We played on the 'under' 213 in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 103-101 Milwaukee victory in a game which sailed under the total by 9 points. And that was the 3rd straight under played by these teams to open this 7-game series. Game 4 is tonight and, as my mother used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." I will adhere to that advice, and once again look for a low-scoring game. Indeed, not only has all three games of this series gone under (by 9, 21 and 28 points), but all eight of Milwaukee's playoff games have gone under! The Bucks have now gone 'under' 24-9-2 their last 35 home playoff games, while Boston has gone under 24-11 its last 35 road playoff games. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-22 | Panthers -172 v. Capitals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Washington Capitals. Two nights after the Panthers routed the Caps in Florida to even the series at a game apiece, the Caps returned the favor at home in Game 3. Now Florida is faced with going down 3-1 against a very good road team if it plays another lackluster game like the one played here on Saturday afternoon. The Caps went with Ilya Samsonov in goal for Game 3 and they will likely go back to the 25-year-old Russian again tonight. Sammy -- as he is called in DC -- stopped 29 of 30 shots he faced on Saturday while his counterpart, veteran Sergei Bobrovsky, had an off night. Look for Bobrovsky to bounce back strong here in Game 4 as the Panthers are 16-5 in their last 21 games immediately a game where their opponent scored five or more goals. They're also 29-11 in their last 40 games after scoring two goals or fewer. Despite the loss, Florida is 19-7 in its last 26 games as a road favorite while the Caps are 0-4 in their last four after allowing two goals or fewer in their previous. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-22 | Rangers v. Yankees -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. People were scratching their heads when the Yankees let several affordable free agent starters (Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, etc.) go by and sign with with other teams this past Winter. After all, the New York rotation is hardly that of the White Sox, Brewers, or Padres. But maybe the Yanks knew something that the rest of us didn't. Despite sitting pat for the most part, New York has the best pitching staff in the American League -- at least as far as team ERA is concerned. And that ridiculous 2.60 staff number is second in the Majors only to the Dodgers. One of the reasons for the success is the emergence of LHP Nestor Cortes. The 27-year-old southpaw starter is 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five starts covering just under 25 innings with 31 strikeouts and seven walks. Start number six will come this afternoon at home a day after these two played a double-header here. The Yanks are 6-3 in Cortes' last nine starts going back to September 2021. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-22 | Maple Leafs +110 v. Lightning | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. After the Lightning tied this series with an upset win in Game 2 in Toronto, the Leafs needed to re-establish their dominance. They did just that in Game 3 in Tampa on Friday with a huge 5-2 victory. Now the Leafs get a chance to put a stranglehold on the series, and there's good reason to expect they will. For one thing, there's the fact that with their victory here on Friday, the Maple Leafs are now 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-1 in the last five at Amalie Arena. And the road team has won nine of 13 in this series. The Leafs got a big boost from the return of RW Mitch Marner just prior to this series. Marner has figured in each of the three games so far, posting six points (two goals and four assists). The Lightning have been feasting on sub-optimal opponents lately as they are just 4-11 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. And in their seven games vs. the Leafs this season, they've yet to have a game with more shots on goal. Take the Maple Leafs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-08-22 | Nationals v. Angels -180 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Washington Nationals. After the Angels' pitching staff tossed back to back shutouts (against Boston and Washington), the Nationals scored seven runs last night to win, 7-3. We'll take Anaheim to bounce back, as the Nationals are still a poor 38-85 (minus 28.4 net games) as a road underdog, while the Angels are 23-9 (+8.1 net games) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200. And LHP Patrick Sandoval has been perfect at home this season, with 0 earned runs over 11 innings pitched. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-22 | Mets -141 v. Phillies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets (in Game 2 of the Double-Header) over the Philadelphia Phillies. This match-up will feature RHP Chris Bassitt and LHP Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Bassitt has been extremely effective this season, with a 2.61 ERA over 5 starts (31 innings). And he's been at his best on the road, with 0 earned runs (in 2 starts) over 12 innings. Even better: against losing teams, Bassitt's teams (the A's last year and Mets this year) have gone 14-1, and they've gone 10-0 as a road favorite of -125 (or higher). Take the Mets in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-22 | Blue Jays -157 v. Guardians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Guardians. Those who predicted that Alek Manoah would have a breakout season and compete with the League's elite aces for a Cy Young are looking like geniuses right about now. The 24-year-old RHP is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA through five starts covering 31 innings. Start number six will come this afternoon against a Guardians club which is struggling to get to .500 this season. Even when Manoah didn't get the W, he pitched brilliantly -- against the Yankees when he threw six innings of one-run, three-hit ball in a game that the bullpen blew. This will be Manoah's first start vs. Cleveland and therefore his first start at Progressive Field. Although he's been better at home throughout his career, Manoah has been a pretty solid road pitcher as well, going 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 13 starts covering 69 1/3 innings away from Toronto/Buffalo/Dunedin. The Guardians are 8-18 in their last 26 games vs. teams from the AL East and 4-9 in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Jays. |
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05-08-22 | Brewers +109 v. Braves | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers' 4-game win streak was halted yesterday by Atlanta. And it was the 3rd straight game Milwaukee has lost with its ace, Corbin Burnes, on the mound. Today, the Brewers will hand the ball to Aaron Ashby, who has started off pitching like an ace this season (although in just two starts). Ashby's ERA is 0.93, and the Brewers have won each of his starts. He'll match up against Charlie Morton, who is still trying to find his groove. After winning his first start of the season (against the pitiful Cincinnati Reds), Morton has been on the mound for four straight losses. And his ERA in those four games was 7.85, while his WHIP was 2.07. Take Milwaukee. |
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05-07-22 | Flames -155 v. Stars | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Dallas Stars. Calgary was poised to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this series when it played Game 2 at home on Thursday night. But the Stars somehow managed an upset win despite only registering 22 shots on goal. Still, the Flames' defense has been superb in this series, allowing just 38 shots in the first two games. This will be the 2nd meeting in Dallas this season between the clubs. In the only previous meeting here at American Airlines Center this season, the Flames came away with a hard-fought 4-3 victory. The Stars tend to let down after big wins recently as they are just 1-4 in their last five following a victory. Meanwhile, the Flames are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. And the favorite is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game. The first two games of this series have sailed under the total. And neither were close. Game 1 was won by Milwaukee, 101-89, and went under the total by 28 points. Likewise, Game 2 -- a 109-86 Celtics win -- went under by 21 points. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game this afternoon, as NBA Playoff games have gone under 62.3% since 1990 if the two previous games in the series combined to go under the total by 44+ points. Even better: Milwaukee has gone under in five straight home playoff games, and is 23-9-2 under its last 34 home playoff games. Meanwhile, Boston has gone under 23-11 its last 34 road playoff games. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs -105 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Phoenix Suns. Dallas is down 2-games-to-none, so it needs to win tonight, lest it fall into a 3-0 hole (out of which no NBA team has ever climbed). We'll take Luka Doncic & Co. tonight, as NBA teams, seeded#5 (or better), have gone 63-38-2 ATS if they were down 2-0 in a series, and not installed as an underdog of +2 (or more) points. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game. The Suns erupted for 129 points in their Game 2 win, and also tallied 121 in Game 1. But off these two high-scoring games, we'll take Game 3 to go UNDER the total. Indeed, since 1990, NBA teams that scored more than 120 points in a playoff win, and also scored more than 120 points two games back, have gone UNDER 68.6% since 1990. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-22 | Maple Leafs +107 v. Lightning | Top | 5-2 | Win | 107 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. After a resounding 5-0 shutout win on Monday, the Maple Leafs seemed poised to take a 2-0 series lead at home when they took the ice on Wednesday for Game 2. After all, it was the same team that had so decisively taken Game 1. But the Bolts summoned their great teams of the past and dominated play early and often in Game 2 and got out of Canada with a 5-3 victory. Now the series shifts to Florida and although it might be easy to think that Tampa has the upper hand and will go up 2-1, there are some things to consider. First and foremost is the fact that the Leafs are 3-1 in their last three meetings with the Lightning here in Tampa going back to January of 2019. Second is the fact that although the Bolts finished the regular season strong, they did most of their damage against sub-par opponents who weren't playing for anything. Going back to the beginning of March, Tampa is 3-10 in their last 13 regular season games vs. teams with a winning pct of 60% or better. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Carolina Hurricanes. With all Eastern Conference teams having played their first two playoff games, the Hurricanes are the only one that has managed to win both of its home openers. That puts them in a dominant position in this first round series but it certainly doesn't mean it's over. If you're the Boston Bruins, this is no time to panic with two games coming up on home ice -- a home ice that was very good to them in the regular season. Carolina's success in Games 1 and 2 didn't come without a price. Already without #1 goalie Frederik Andersen heading into the playoffs (lower body injury), the 'Canes lost #2 Antti Raanta to an upper body injury in Game 2 after being hit by Boston's David Pastrnak. The injury is not thought to be serious, and Raanta was at practice yesterday, however his status has yet to be determined for tonight's game. If Raanta is unable to play, then 22-year-old rookie Pyotr Kochetkov will mind the net for the visitors. Regardless of which goalie is between the pipes, we'll take the Bruins, as they are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings here in Boston. Take the Bruins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-22 | Capitals v. Panthers -229 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Washington Capitals. With Alex Ovechkin back on the ice for the first time in over a week, the Capitals pulled off a big upset in South Florida on Tuesday night, 4-2. But when you consider that the Caps had the best road record in the League this season and much more playoff experience than Florida, the victory really wasn't all that surprising. The Panthers need not panic (they have the best home record in the NHL). Now that it's had time to shake the rust off, look for Florida to come out flying in Game 2. Shortly after scoring the Caps' first goal in the first period, winger Tom Wilson went to the locker room and did not return. The veteran big man has a lower body injury and his status for tonight is uncertain. Despite its victory two days ago, Washington is just 2-6 in its last eight first round playoff games and 1-4 in the last five match-ups at FLA Live Arena. The Panthers are also 44-8 in their last 52 games as a home favorite and the favorite is 37-18 in the last 55 meetings of these two clubs. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-05-22 | Twins -133 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles made one of the biggest changes of any team over the winter and it had nothing to do with free agent players or coaches and managers. At the O's home park of 30 years, the team moved the left field wall back a whopping 30 feet and raised it 10. The result has been unmistakable as Camden Yards has gone from being one of the most hitter friendly venues to one that is now as stingy as they come. It's the main reason that a mostly unknown pitching staff has gone from one of the worst home ERAs in the game to one of the best (2.68). As they welcome the Twins back for the final of three games, veteran RHP Chris Archer likely can't wait to get his first start in the newly expanded ballpark. The now 33-year-old was an all-but-forgotten starter in 1 1/2 seasons in Pittsburgh and then an unremarkable return to Tampa last season. But Archer has found new life with the Twins, posting a 2.93 ERA in four starts covering 15 1/3 innings. Minnesota is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings here. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Phoenix. The Suns were the league's #1 team this season, and the only team which won 69+ percent of its games. Phoenix got this series off to a great start with a 7-point win on Monday. Unfortunately, #1-seeded NBA teams with a .733 (or better) win percentage have gone 30-64 ATS as home favorites in the NBA playoffs if they led the series, and their opponent had yet to win a game. That doesn't bode well for Phoenix tonight. Nor does the fact that the Mavericks are 39-14 ATS as a double-revenge-minded road underdog off a loss vs. an opponent off a win. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-22 | Blues v. Wild -121 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St. Louis Blues. The NHL Post-season opened on Monday night, and while the two Eastern Conference Game 1's went according to plan -- big wins for the favored home teams Hurricanes and Leafs -- the West was a different story on Monday. Edmonton was upset at home by the Kings, while the Wild laid an egg at home against the Blues. Minnesota has lost in the first round of the playoffs in five of the last six seasons (the sixth season they didn't participate in post-season play) but this is arguably the best team it's ever had. With the series going to St. Louis for two games after tonight, this is pretty much a must-win for the Wild, who came into the first round having won seven of its last eight regular season games. This is no time to panic as the Wild out-shot the Blues in Game 1, 37-31. The Wild leaned on Marc-Andre Fleury Monday for his Stanley Cup experience, but they could easily make a change to Cam Talbot in Game 2 as the veteran goalie has a career 2.45 GAA and 92.3 save % in 32 post-season games. Regardless of which netminder is between the pipes, we'll take the Wild, as they're 9-2 their last 11 off a shutout loss, and 27-8 their last 35 off a home defeat (including 8-0 this season off a home loss by 2+ goals). Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -139 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Washington Nationals. It's much too early in the MLB Season to start giving out awards, but we can say pretty confidently that the surprise team of the League so far is the Colorado Rockies. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone -- including those in the state of Colorado -- who would've thought this team would be above .500 after the first month. But the Rockies are 13-10. Few noticed when Austin Gomber was one of the players traded to the Rox as part of the deal which sent star Nolan Arenado to St. Louis back in February of 2021. And a season in which he went 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 23 starts did little to enhance his reputation. But the 28-year-old LHP is one of many surprises for Colorado so far in 2022, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts covering 21 innings. Sure, he got roughed up in his only start at Coors Field, but what pitcher doesn't? In fact, his mound opponent tonight -- the Nats' LH Patrick Corbin -- has a career 5.91 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) here. Finally, the Nats are 3-5 in the last eight meetings in Denver, and 1-11 their last 12 as an underdog of +150 or less with Corbin on the hill. Take the Rockies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -123 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. We cashed the Maple Leafs in Game 1 of this series -- a 5-0 blowout -- as they were my highest-rated NHL play of the season-to-date. Admittedly, the Lightning have been spectacular off a loss in the Playoffs. Indeed, Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is 14-0 his last 14 games following a playoff defeat, with a 1.20 GAA, and a 95.2% SVS %. Last season, the Lightning went 7-0 in the 2021 playoffs in games immediately following a loss en route to a second straight Stanley Cup. But it's important to note that all seven of those rebound wins last season came at home, while tonight, the Lightning must do it in hostile territory. And it's also important to note that in none of those games last season did he face a goal scorer as dynamic as the Leafs' Auston Matthews. Matthews has already made his mark on this series, scoring twice in Game 1 and there will likely be many more to come from the regular season goals leader (60). A hot goalie is key to a deep Stanley Cup run and Jack Campbell (who was maligned earlier this season) appears to be in peak form now, stopping all 24 Tampa shots in Game 1 while earning Star of the Game. With the victory, the Leafs have now won five of the last seven meetings going back to February 2020. And it was 7-0 this season off a shutout win. Take Toronto in Game 2. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-22 | Stars v. Flames -208 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Dallas Stars. The Flames just concluded their most successful season -- 111 total points -- since they won it all way back in 1989 (they finished that season with 117 points). Perhaps that will serve as an omen for what is about to happen in this post-season. After all, we're talking about a club that hasn't made it out of the first round in their last three trips to the playoffs (2017, 2019, 2020), so even getting past the Stars will be seen as a victory of sorts. And as if they needed any more motivation, this is a huge revenge situation as it was the Stars who knocked Calgary out in six games in August of 2020. Dallas had the home ice advantage in that series but now it's the Flames who will enjoy four games at home in this opening round. The Flames took two of three games from the Stars this season, including each of the last two on February 1 and April 21. Three of Dallas' last four victories were against the Kraken, Sharks, and Ducks and it is 2-4 in its last six vs. teams with winning records. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State. The Grizz lost Game 1, but covered the 2.5-point spread in the process. And that extended Memphis' point spread record this season to 56-32-1 ATS this year (63.6%). Its regular season ATS record (52-29-1 ATS) was not only the #1 ATS record of any NBA team this season, but it also was the 4th best regular season ATS record over the past 32 seasons! This is key, as NBA teams have gone 53-24 ATS at home in the Playoffs, if their ATS win pct. was 62% (or better). Moreover, Memphis is 25-3 ATS at home when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win, if the Grizzlies weren't favored by more than 2 points. Take Memphis as a home dog on Tuesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-22 | Angels -118 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Boston Red Sox. Two resurrection projects of sorts will take the mound this evening in Boston when the Red Sox and Michael Wacha host the Angels and Noah Syndergaard. While Wacha's story so far this season is surprising, Syndergaard's is downright miraculous. The 29-year-old RHP was all but forgotten after a combination of the COVID pandemic and Tommy John surgery meant that the Mets were not going to sign him to a long term contract and he was granted free agency last year. With not much interest out there among teams, the Angels signed Thor to a one-year, $21 Million contract that so far is making them and their winning record look like geniuses. In three starts covering 17 innings, Syndergaard is 2-0 with a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Start number four will be just his second ever at Fenway Park. His other one was superb -- 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H and a W back in 2018. The Angels are 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite (4-0 in their last four as a road favorite). Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee. The Celtics had covered their previous seven games vs. the Bucks before getting upset in Game 1, 101-89. But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Ime Udoka's men tonight. Indeed, .610 (or better) NBA teams have gone 49-21 ATS at home off an upset playoff loss, if they scored less than 90 points in that defeat, and were favored by 4+ points in the current game. Take Boston minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-22 | Braves v. Mets -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Charlie Morton will get the start for the Braves, but the reliable veteran has not been his normal self this season. He's given up between 2 and 5 earned runs in each of his four outings, covering 18 innings, for a 7.00 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. A major culprit has been walks, as he's put on 11 baserunners due to his lack of command. In contrast, Carlos Carrasco has a 0.95 WHIP, as he's walked just four batters in his 22 innings pitched (with 17 hits). In his career, Morton's teams are a poor 38-53 (minus 23.4 net games) in his daytime starts, and 46-76 (minus 15.6 net games) as an underdog. Take the Mets as a small home favorite this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-02-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The 2022 Eastern Conference playoffs feature the most compelling match-ups in recent memory. In one series you have the Presidents Trophy Winner (Panthers) vs. the greatest goal scorer of our generation (Alex Ovechkin). In another, you have a legend like Sidney Crosby vs. the team (Rangers) with the best goalie in the world right now. And let's not forget this game, which pits the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champs (Lightning) vs. the team (Maple Leafs) with perhaps the next great goal scorer, Auston Matthews (to whom Ovechkin will be passing the torch). Let's also not forget that Toronto has a huge chip on its shoulder this year after being eliminated in the first round in five straight seasons coming into these playoffs. But the Leafs are a lot more than just Matthews. RW Mitch Marner put up 97 points and LW Michael Bunting (who won't play in Game 1) is the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Toronto finished the season strong with 15 win over its last 19 games, including a 5-2 blowout of Boston on Friday. Toronto's 39-15 off a win by 3+ goals, and 11-1 its last 12 at home. Admittedly, the Leafs lost the previous meeting vs. Tampa (a game which Matthews and goalie Jack Campbell missed), but have won four of the last six meetings between these two going back to the start of 2020. Toronto is a solid 18-6 when playing with revenge from a loss in which it scored less than 2 goals (and 50-31 its last 81, overall, when playing with revenge). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-22 | Phillies v. Mets -170 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets signed veteran RHP Max Scherzer to a huge short-term contact in the off-season. The three-time Cy Young award winner would like nothing better than to win another World Series before he retires, and Scherzer just might be able to do that with this Mets team. Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season thanks to a shoulder injury, but the Mets are 15-7 and in first place without him so they can afford to wait and bring deGrom back when he's 100 percent ready. So far, Scherzer has been nothing short of amazing for his new club, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings. He will likely reach 200 career victories this season but that likely won't matter much to him unless the Mets make a deep post-season run riding on his back. His fifth start will come tonight in prime time against a Phillies team that he's completely dominated in his career. In 26 starts vs. the Phils covering just under 164 innings, Scherzer is 15-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -180 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jordan Hicks began life in the Majors as a late-inning option out of the bullpen for the Cards. In 2018, the then-21-year-old RHP finished 20 games for St. Louis, recording six saves in the process. 2019 saw Hicks assume the full-time closers role and with much success in the early part of the season it seemed as though he might have that job for years to come. But a torn UCL in June led to July elbow surgery and that was followed by COVID so Hicks opted out of the 2020 season as he recovered. After a non-descript 2021 campaign, Hicks is back and in the rotation due in part to Jack Flaherty's bad shoulder. If Hicks can get his walks under control, he could be a very good MLB starter and at just 25 years old, he has plenty of time to work on it. Expect him to get stretched out a bit in his third start this afternoon against the D-Backs -- a team that he has a 0.00 ERA against in four career innings. The D-Backs are 2-6 in their last eight meetings with the Cards in St. Louis, and 31-79 (minus 30.9 net games) as a road underdog. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. Last year, the Bucks won the title in part due to the loss of key players to injury by other teams. This season, it's the Bucks (and 76ers) who have suffered the biggest losses thus far. Milwaukee will be without its second best player, Khris Middleton, for this series, while the 76ers lost center Joel Embiid. It would have been an uphill climb for Milwaukee even with Middleton, but his absence will likely doom Milwaukee in this series. I expect Boston to get off to a good start in Game 1, and we'll lay the points. Milwaukee has won its last three games, but it's a poor 110-173-1 ATS off three (or more) wins. Even worse: it's 5-20 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points, including 0-8 ATS vs. a foe off back to back wins. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. Jose Berrios came to the Blue Jays by way of the Twins at the trade deadline last July. Many thought Toronto just wanted the 27-year-old RHP for the post-season run, but after they were eliminated, the Jays and Berrios showed that they had other, long-term goals in mind when they agreed to a very friendly seven year, $131 Million contract extension that will keep him in Ontario until at least 2028. So Berrios would like nothing more than to help the Jays bring a World Series north of the border and he certainly has the tools to do it. Berrios' 4.91 ERA this season is skewed because of a horrible first start when he lasted just 1/3 inning. His three subsequent starts have been very good and Berrios is poised to finish the first month strong and take that momentum into the Summer. In seven starts last season at Rogers Centre, Berrios went 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in just over 41 innings. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Berrios' last five starts and 4-0 in his last four here at home. And they're a super 57-31 (+18.2 net games) in the daytime. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over Arizona. We played on the Cardinals and RHP Miles Mikolas earlier this week against the New York Mets. The Cards lost that game, 5-2, but Mikolas threw 7 shutout innings. Unfortunately, they blew a 2-0 lead by giving up 5 runs in the 9th. Mikolas has now had back to back scoreless outings, as he went 5 innings at Miami on April 20, in a 2-0 Cardinals win. For the season, his ERA is 1.21, with a 0.94 WHIP. And his career ERA vs. the Diamondbacks is 3.00. In contrast, Merril Kelly's career ERA vs. the Cardinals is 4.91. Arizona is a poor 23-62 as a road underdog, while the Cards are 22-5 in Mikolas' daytime starts. Take St Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers come into this weekend series against the Tigers having just lost two of three to the Dbacks who are playing better than expected. Despite the upsets in Arizona, they still have a 12-6 record and are in the thick of it in the NL West with the Giants and Padres. Shoulder discomfort landed starter Andrew Heaney on the IL which opened the door for LH Tyler Anderson -- who L.A. acquired in the off-season -- to take a turn in the rotation. His first start for the team was solid as the 32-year-old went 4 2/3 innings and allowed two runs on four hits against a good Padres team. Start number two in Dodger Blue will come tonight against a Tigers team which Anderson has only faced once previously. In that game, he held the Tigers to 2 runs over 5 innings, in a 3-2 victory. Anderson's teams are also 8-1 in his nine Interleague starts, so that bodes well for Los Angeles tonight. Many thought Detroit could compete for a playoff spot this season with its young talent, and off-season acquisitions like Javier Baez. But so far the going has been tough (6-12). L.A. is 19-7 in its last 26 games vs. the AL Central, while Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven vs. LH starters. And the Dodgers are also 85-25 (+24 net games) its last 110 as a favorite of -200 (or more). Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis/Minnesota game. These two teams went down to the wire in Game 5, with Memphis winning by just points, 111-109. And the game went under the total by 11 points. We'll look for another low-scoring game on Friday, as Memphis has been installed as a narrow 1-point road favorite. And NBA Playoff games, competitively-priced with a point spread less than 2 points, have gone 'under' 99-79 since 1990. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-22 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins minus 1.5 goals over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Penguins haven't exactly been what you'd call a "clutch" team lately. With third place in the Metropolitan Division on the line and the Pens ending their season with games against the Flyers, Oilers, and Blue Jackets, you'd think they would have been in very good shape. Heck, even a 3-0 finish would not have been out of the question. But they come into tonight's match-up with Columbus needing a victory after dropping games to Philly and Edmonton -- and neither was close. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets come into tonight off an emotional win over the defending Champs (Tampa) in their final home game of the season. Off that win, however, I expect a letdown tonight. And, based on the numbers, Pittsburgh couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent for its final game of the regular season. The Penguins have won 13 of the last 15 meetings with the Blue Jackets and they have won 10 straight meetings here at home going back to December of 2015. The Blue Jackets are also 4-9 in 13 games when playing with zero days of rest this season. Take Pittsburgh on the puck line, minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-22 | Mariners -110 v. Marlins | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Miami. Matt Brash will get the ball for Seattle this evening, and has been installed as a small favorite vs. Elieser Hernandez and the Marlins. We'll play on Seattle, as the Marlins are a horrid 3-19 their last 22 interleague games. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 68-44 (+14.8 net games) as a road favorite of -150 (or less), and are 49-29 (+23.5 net games) when priced from -125 to +125. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 62 h 32 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 6 between Utah and Dallas. These two teams mustered just 179 points in Game 5, which went 'under' by 33.5 points. And Game 4 wasn't much better, as they scored just 199 points combined, which was 15 points less than the posted total. Game 6 is set-up to be another low-scoring game, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 57% since 1990 off back to back low-scoring games that each went 'under' by 15+ points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Dallas Mavericks. Utah's Donovan Mitchell will play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Jazz. Utah could not have played any worse in Game 5, as it lost by 25 points, and made just 3 of 30 shots from three-point range. Given that Utah converted 36% of its three-point shots this season, and ranked second in successful three-pointers per game (14.5), I fully expect the Jazz to play much better here, at home, on Thursday. NBA teams with a .583 (or better) win percentage are a solid 59-41 ATS in the playoffs off a 25-point (or worse) defeat. Take the Jazz. Good luck as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Flames v. Wild -108 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Calgary Flames. While Calgary is locked into the #2 spot in the Western Conference, behind Colorado, the Wild are battling the St Louis Blues for home ice advantage in the opening round. Minnesota has been on fire over its last 22 games, as it's lost just twice in regulation, and is 17-2-3, overall. We'll take the Wild, as they're 26-8 off a home loss, including 7-0 if they lost by 2+ goals in their previous game. With Minny, indeed, off a 5-3 home loss to Arizona, we'll take the Wild to bounce back tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 214.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 0 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns 'Under' the total. We played on the #1-seeded Suns in Game 5 of this series, as our NBA Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 112-97 win. That game went 'under' the total of 216. We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as #8 seeds (like New Orleans) have gone 'under' the total in Home elimination games 62% of the time since 1990, including 78.9% when the O/U line was between 198 and 219 points, and 82.3% in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 or less. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers over the Toronto Raptors. The Sixers were blown out, 103-88, by Toronto in Game 5. But off that home upset defeat, we'll take Philly on the road in Game 6. Indeed, road teams that scored less than 90 points in a 15-point (or worse) home upset playoff loss, have cashed 64.7% since 1990. Take the 76ers. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209.5 | Top | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Toronto game. Game 5 went 'under' the total by 20.5 points, and that was the 4th straight game in this series which has gone 'under.' We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as the Sixers have gone 'under' in 9 of 12 games after failing to cover the spread by 18+ points in their previous game, and 27-18 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in their previous game. Likewise, Toronto is 24-10 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in its previous game. Take the 'under.' |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 37 h 29 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game. The Warriors have exploded to score 123, 126, 118 and 121 points in this series. And, dating back to the regular season, the Warriors' last five games have gone 'Over' the total. But off this string of high-scoring games, we'll take the 'UNDER' on Wednesday night. Indeed, NBA teams have gone 'under' the total 65.1% since 1990 if they scored 118+ points in the three previous meetings that season, and the most recent meeting didn't go 'under.' Even better: Golden State has gone 'under' 60% at home off 5+ overs. Take the UNDER in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -6 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans. We played on the Pelicans as a home underdog in Game 4, and were rewarded with a 118-103 blowout win. But off that loss, we'll take Monty Williams' men to rebound on Tuesday. Phoenix is an awesome 50-18-1 ATS off an upset road loss, including 16-0 ATS its last 16 vs. foes that covered by 11+ points in their previous game. Take the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. St Louis was in a great position to take Game 1 of this series last night. It had a 2-0 lead entering the top of the 9th inning. And it had the Mets down to their final strike on a number of occasions. But New York rose from the dead to score 5 times with two out in that 9th inning, for a 5-2 win. Once again, the Cardinals have been installed as a home underdog against the team which may be the NL's 2nd best behind Los Angeles. St Louis will hand the ball to fireballer Jordan Hicks for his 2nd career start. He allowed 1 ER on 2H in 3 IP in his first start vs. Miami, and I expect him to go at least 4 innings this evening. Hicks will match up against Chris Bassitt, who was shelled for 5 runs and 8 hits in his last outing -- a 5-2 loss to the Giants. Admittedly, Bassitt was more effective in his first two starts, but those were against the 6-11 Diamondacks (worst batting avg. (.185) in baseball) and the 6-12 Nationals. Bassitt's career ERA vs. the Cardinals is 8.11. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Carolina Hurricanes. New York's road to the division championship is certainly a difficult one. It would need to win tonight in regulation, and then follow that up with two more wins against Montreal and Washington to end its season. And, while that is very possible, it's the 2nd part of the equation which is the most unlikely. New York would also need the Hurricanes to lose at home to New Jersey in their season finale. So, the Rangers understand that even a win tonight won't probably change their playoff seeding. But the team is still focused on playing well, and carrying that momentum into the post-season. New York is 7-2 its last nine, and will be looking to avenge a 4-2 home loss to these Hurricanes two weeks ago. New York is a solid 12-6 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year, while Carolina is 1-6 off 4+ wins. These two teams are the #1 and #2 teams in the league in goals allowed (Carolina 196, New York 197), though the Rangers gave up 3 goals in each of their two previous games. But New York is 14-3 after allowing 3+ goals in back to back games. We'll take New York at home tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets. These two teams have both impressed early on. The Cardinals are 9-5, while New York is 12-5. We played on the Mets yesterday, as our MLB Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 6-2 victory over Arizona. But we'll play against the Mets tonight in this series-opening game. The mound opponents will be Max Scherzer for New York, and Miles Mikolas for St. Louis. Both pitchers are off to fantastic starts. The Mets have won each of Scherzer's 3 outings, and his ERA is 2.50, with an 0.88 WHIP. Likewise, St. Louis is 3-0 in Mikolas' starts. But his ERA is better than Scherzer's, at 1.76, while his WHIP is 1.04. Mikolas is 1-0 vs. the Mets in his career, with a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, while Scherzer's record vs. St. Louis is below .500, at 5-6 (though his ERA is solid, at 2.53). The key to our pick tonight is that St. Louis has been installed as a medium-sized home underdog. The Cards are a perfect 6-0 since 2020 with Mikolas on the hill when installed as an underdog of +150 or less, while the Mets are a poor 50-71 (minus 27.1 net games) on the road (including 27-28 (minus 12.8 net games) as a road favorite). Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets -1 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Boston Celtics. Brooklyn was within a half-second of winning Game 1 on the road, but fell, 115-114, when Jayson Tatum took a pass from Marcus Smart, and made a lay-up at the buzzer. It was one of those momentous plays which -- for all intents and purposes -- swung this series to Boston's favor. Indeed, Brooklyn never recovered. It certainly had its chances again in Game 2, but collapsed late in a 7-point loss. And, then, here at home, the Nets lost by six, 109-103, in Game 3. I stayed completely away from this Playoff series over its first three games, but the value now resides on the side of Brooklyn. It was favored by 4 points in Game 3, but because it's down 3-games-to-none, the number has been significantly adjusted. I certainly understand WHY the number has been adjusted: teams down 3-games-to-none have gone 39-55-5 ATS since 1990 in Game 4. But of those prior 99 series, only 2 have been more competitive as this one, as Boston has only outscored Brooklyn by a total of 14 points in the three games. We'll play on Brooklyn, as it falls into a 90-52 ATS Playoff series of mine which plays on certain home teams off back to back ATS losses. Take the Nets. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Phoenix. The #1-seeded Suns regained control of this series with a 115-112 victory in Game 3. But we will fade Phoenix off that win, as NBA road teams off a win in Game 3, and up 2-games-to-1, are a dismal 32.7% ATS since 1990 in competitively-priced games with spreads less than 5 points. Take the Pelicans to even this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-22 | Mets -160 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Arizona Diamondbacks. New York is off to a blistering 11-5 start, and has yet to lose a series this season. With a win this afternoon, the Mets will keep their perfect series record intact, with their 5th straight series win. RHP Tylor Megill will get the start for New York, and he's led the Mets to wins in each of his 3 starts this season. Megill's ERA is 2.20, and his WHIP is 0.91. Even better: in two road starts, he's yet to allow a run, and has put just six men on base in 10 1/3 innings (0.00 ERA; 0.58 WHIP). He'll match up against veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner (1.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) today. Though Bumgarner's ERA is great, he's also allowed an NL-worst 10 men to reach via a walk. That could spell trouble against a Mets offense which has drawn 62 walks (#4, MLB), and plated 75 runs (#2, MLB). Bumgarner faced New York just once last season, and was bombed for 5 earned runs and eight hits in 2 innings, in a 7-6 New York victory. Arizona has scored just 47 runs this season, which is 2nd worst in the NL. And it's an awful 11-30 (minus 14.1 net games) as a home underdog priced from +125 to +175, and 27-47 (minus 13.4 net games) in day games. Take the Mets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors UNDER the total. The Warriors come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went OVER the total. But since 1994, Golden State has gone 'under' 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went 'over.' As does the fact that the Warriors are 25-13 UNDER their last 38 as a road favorite. I look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +3 | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies roared back from a seemingly impossible 26-point deficit to win Game 3, 104-95. Memphis now has a 2-1 series lead, but the Timberwolves are far from out of it. We'll take the homestanding T-Wolves tonight, as home teams off a loss in Game 3 have cashed 71% since 1990 if they trailed in the series 2 games to 1, and their opponent's win percentage was less than .703. Take Minnesota + the points. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies UNDER the total. The last two games have gone WAY UNDER the total. Game 2 totaled 220 points, and sailed under by 20.5. Likewise, Game 3 totaled 199 points, and was 38.5 points away from the posted total of 237.5. The Game 4 line has been adjusted downward, of course, but not by nearly enough. We'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night, as the Grizzlies have now gone 'under' 31-14-2 when the line has been 231+ points, including 8-1 'under' their last nine on the road. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-23-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -250 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Seattle Kraken. If the Kraken want something to be positive about heading into the off-season having been eliminated from the playoffs a while ago, it might be their recent three-game win streak -- their first of the season. The first two games of the streak were no big deal (the Senators and Devils), but in the third game, Seattle beat the Avalanche, holding the best offense in the West to just 27 shots. But let's not kid ourselves, this is still a 26-50 team and all three of those wins were at home where they've played their best hockey. They've had to go on the road now to play the Wild last night, and now the Stars in Texas. Dallas is fighting for one of two Wild Card spots in the West and the Stars need to finish strong to have any chance of competing in the post-season. The good news is that three of their final four games are against losing teams (Kraken, Coyotes, and Ducks) and the fourth is against Vegas who they're two points ahead of for that last spot. Seattle is 2-6 in its last eight playing without rest. Take Dallas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Dallas. With their proverbial backs against the wall, the Jazz will attempt to level the series at 2 games apiece this afternoon. Utah is a spectacular 67.3% ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS home loss since 1990 when playing with revenge. I won't fade those numbers. Lay the points. |
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04-23-22 | Brewers +135 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. With perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch of any rotation in MLB, the pressure is not as intense on the #4 and #5 starters of the Brewers as it is for other teams. That he doesn't have to perform like an ace has been apparent for RHP Adrian Houser. The 29-year-old went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 28 games (26 starts) in 2021 -- the first season that the Brew Crew had "the Big Three" of Burnes, Woodward, and Peralta at the top of the rotation. This year is more of the same for Houser who has posted a 2.89 ERA in two starts covering 9 1/3 innings. The only thing missing so far is a win, but that could come this afternoon against a Phillies team which has been underwhelming so far to say the least. Houser was stretched out to 5 2/3 innings in his second start, pitching well enough to get the "W" vs. the Cards, but the offense was napping that day as the Crew lost, 2-1. In four career games vs. the Phils (one start) Houser has a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 11 innings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-22 | Rangers v. Bruins -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over New York. Both the Bruins and Rangers will be incentivized to win this afternoon, as each is jockeying for playoff positioning. New York has its eyes on moving to the #1 seed in the Metropolitan division, while the Bruins would like to avoid finishing 8th in the conference (and thereby drawing Florida in the first round). The Bruins come into this game off a 4-0 shutout loss to Pittsburgh. We played on the Pens in that game, but will take the Bruins to bounce back here. Boston is 21-8 this season off a loss, and 7-2 off a shutout defeat. Meanwhile, the Rangers bested the Islanders, 6-3, on Thursday. Unfortunately, New York is a wallet-busting 56-63 (but minus 19.6 net games on the moneyline) after scoring more than 5 goals in its previous game. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the New Orleans Pelicans. Entering the playoffs, the Suns had the easiest path toward a championship, which would have been their first in their franchise's history. But that path got a huge roadblock in Game 2 when star Devin Booker sustained a hamstring injury. If there is a silver lining for Monty Williams' crew, it's that they've played many games without Booker over the last two years. This season, they went 8-6 in 14 games sans Booker. We'll take Phoenix in this Game #3, as it is 105-58-3 as a single-digit favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, including 42-16-3 ATS on the road; 7-0 ATS its last 7 playoff games; and 40-15-2 ATS if it failed to cover its previous game by 16+ points. Take the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans UNDER the total. The Suns were stunned in Game 2, as New Orleans leveled the series at 1 game apiece with a road win. Even worse: Phoenix lost its best player, Devin Booker, for the remainder of the series. We'll look for a low-scoring game in New Orleans tonight, as the Suns are 20-5 UNDER off a straight-up loss, including 9-0 UNDER their last nine on the road. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Milwaukee/Chicago game. The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the total, and they continued a series trend, as 12 of the last 16 meetings between these Central division rivals have gone UNDER the total. And this series trend dovetails with how each team has done in division games, overall. Chicago has now gone UNDER in 21 of 26 division games (including 11-0 UNDER when priced from 215 to 224), while Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 of 17 division games. And the Bucks are 22-14 UNDER off an upset loss. Take the UNDER. |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks +2 | Top | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Miami Heat. Miami bested Atlanta by 10 points in Game #2. We'll take Atlanta here, at home, in Game #3, as it's 96-55 ATS at home when playing with rest, and revenge from a double-digit loss. Take the Hawks. |
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04-22-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -180 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Call Jameson Taillon a typical Pirates top pitching prospect. The RH was selected second overall by Pittsburgh in 2010 and proceeded to go absolutely nowhere in four seasons with the Bucs once he reached the Majors in 2016. The talent was there, however, and Taillon flashed it in 2018 when he went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and a league-leading two complete games. Elbow surgery came at a opportune time (2020 COVID season) and then Taillon's prayers were answered with a trade to the Yankees just as he was ready to pitch again. He was solid last season with an 8-6 record and 4.30 ERA in 29 starts and looks to improve on that this season and hopefully pitch into October and the playoffs. His second start of 2022 comes tonight at home against a Guardians team which has been hot and cold so far. Taillon has thrived in his new home park, going 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 16 starts here. And coming into this series, the Yanks are 6-3 in their last nine meetings with Cleveland. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-22 | Blues -185 v. Sharks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks. With just five games to go in the regular season, the Blues would seem to have their position as a top-three finisher in the Central Division solidified. They can't catch the #1 Colorado Avalanche, but that doesn't mean these remaining games aren't important. With the Stanley Cup Playoff format, the #2 and #3 seeds from each Division play each other in the first round and right now the Blues are tied with the Wild at 103 points (Minny has played one less game, however). So finishing above Minnesota would mean home ice in that first round series, making tonight and the rest of their games very important. The good news is that this series has been about as one-sided as any in the league lately. The Blues have won each of the last four meetings with the Sharks and seven of the last eight here in San Jose. Additionally, the Sharks are 0-7 in their last seven vs. Central Division teams, and 0-9 their last nine as an underdog. St. Louis is 6-0 in its last six vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 in its last four road games. And it's 9-1 its last 10 as a favorite. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State. The Nuggets come into this game off 3 straight point spread defeats. But Denver is a spectacular 29-8 ATS off 3 (or more) ATS losses, if it was matched up against a .400 (or better) foe, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Grab the points with Mike Malone's men. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game. The Warriors blew out Denver in the first two games -- both played in San Francisco -- by scores of 123-107 and 126-106. The Warriors have been installed as a road favorite tonight, and have gone UNDER the total in 25 of 37 games as a road favorite. Additionally, NBA teams off back to back games in which they scored 123+ points have gone UNDER 67.7% in the Playoffs since 1990. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 126-118 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Dallas. We played on the Mavericks in Game 2, and were rewarded with a 110-104 upset victory. Unfortunately for Dallas, it's 13-34 ATS vs. .333 (or better) revenge-minded foes, if Dallas won its previous game. Take Utah to bounce back on Thursday. |
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04-21-22 | Bruins v. Penguins -115 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Boston Bruins. With just five games to play, the Penguins are in danger of falling out of the top three spots in the Metropolitan Division and into the Wild Card pool, which would likely force a matchup against the #1-seeded Panthers in the 1st round. At the moment, the red-hot Capitals are tied with Pittsburgh for 3rd place going into Thursday night's games. Tonight, the Pens will host Boston, which is just one point behind the third place team in the Atlantic Division -- Tampa Bay -- after its OT win over St. Louis on Tuesday. The Pens haven't played in five days and that last one was a tough 2-1 loss to this Bruins club in Boston so this is a big revenge situation tonight back home. With the extended rest, it would seem an ideal situation for this aging Pens team which is 6-2 in its last eight games when playing with three or more days off. The favorite is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings of these two and the home team is 20-6 in the last 26 (with the Bruins 2-8 in the last ten here at PPG Paints Arena). Take the Penguins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -123 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Baltimore Orioles. After Paul Blackburn went 3-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 starts in his first MLB season with the A's back in 2017, there were some high expectations for the future. After all, the RHP was a first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 and stayed in their system until traded to Oakland in 2016, so there was obviously some talent there. But the promise of 2017 did not materialize over the next four seasons -- all with the A's -- and Blackburn was little more than an afterthought coming into this season. But that form seems to have returned somehow as the now-28-year-old has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two starts covering 10 innings. And those two were on the road against two very good teams in the Rays and Blue Jays, so Blackburn gets rewarded this afternoon with his first home start against the 4-8 Orioles. Despite a 5.47 career ERA in 32 games, Blackburn has a 3.72 number in two starts vs. Baltimore. The O's are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 22-52 in the last 74 in Oakland. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets -128 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Francisco Giants. At the ripe age of 35 years old, RHP Carlos Carrasco is off to arguably his best start since he came into the Majors with Cleveland back in 2009. Carrasco has survived major elbow surgery, multiple other injuries, and even a bout with cancer and yet this could be his best season yet -- and his best chance at winning a World Series ring. The Mets are being cautious with him thus far, which is one reason why despite a 0.84 ERA over his first two starts, Carrasco is still looking for his first victory. Perhaps facing the Giants, against whom Carrasco has a 3.00 career ERA, will do the trick. With Jacob deGrom dealing with an injury that could keep him out for a while, the Mets need Carrasco to step up, and he's done that and more already this season. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Mets are still 38-17 in their last 55 games as a home favorite. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche minus 1.5 goals over the Seattle Kraken. The Avs lost a tough one at home on Monday, 3-2, to the Capitals. Despite Colorado's dominance this season, the loss wasn't all that surprising given that the Caps have the best road record in the league and that they seem to have Colorado's number lately. Tonight should be a different story as the Avs visit Seattle. The Kraken have had a tough go of it in their first NHL season with a 25-44-6 record overall and just 14-21-3 here at home. Despite the Avs' loss the other night, they still are tied for the best record in the league with Florida, and have an outside shot at a second consecutive President's Trophy. The problem for Colorado in its chase for the most points is that tonight's game will be the last game against a non-playoff team. The Panthers, on the other hand, have a much easier finishing schedule. But the good news for tonight's game is that the Avs tend to not lose back-to-back games. In its last 15 games immediately following a defeat -- going back to November 6 -- Colorado is 13-2. Even better: Seattle is on a 2-game win streak, but has yet to win three-in-a-row in five previous attempts this season. The Kraken is also 0-4 in its last four after allowing two goals or less in its previous game. Take the Avs minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-22 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Washington Capitals. The Caps head southwest after their big win in Colorado on Monday. Tonight will be a rematch of the 2018 Cup Finals on the Vegas Strip as the Knights go for the Season sweep (they shut out the Caps in DC back on January 24). The Knights have lost two straight and sit 5 points behind the Stars for the final Wild Card berth, with five games to play (though Dallas has 6 games left). If Vegas wins tonight and then beats the Sharks in the next game -- which it should -- then its next game is against Dallas, the team immediately in front of it. So, Vegas still has some hope left, though it probably has to go 5-0 to end the season for any chance at all. The Knights were upset on Monday by the Devils, 3-2, despite out-shooting New Jersey 44-28. Robin Lehner was in goal in that game and allowed three goals on just 28 shots so don't be surprised if Logan Thompson (2.55 GAA; .922 saves pct) is back in the crease tonight. Thompson's won five of his last six outings. Vegas is also 6-2 in its last eight home games and 5-2 in its last seven when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers -122 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Last season, Los Angeles ended its regular season on a 13-game home win streak. It then started this regular season with seven straight wins at home. It did lose at home yesterday, but is now 20-1 its last 21 regular season home games. We'll take Los Angeles in this rare daytime "businessman's special" home game, at Chavez Ravine. Tony Gonsolin will get the start for Dave Roberts' crew, and Gonsolin is in "mid-season" form early on, as he has given up just 1 earned run over seven innings. In contrast, Braves starter Charlie Morton has not flashed his strong stuff, as he's given up seven earned runs, 4 walks, and 11 hits in 10 1/3 innings, for a 6.10 ERA, and a 1.45 WHIP. The Dodgers are a dominant 76-27 (+25.8 net games on the moneyline) in daytime home games, while Morton's teams have gone 38-52 (minus 22.4 net games) in his career daytime starts. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Minnesota. Memphis was the league's #1 point spread team this season, with a 52-29-1 ATS record (64.1% ATS). But it comes into this Game 2 off back to back SU/ATS losses, as it fell to Boston, 139-110, in its final regular season game, and lost to Minnesota, 130-117, on Saturday. We'll take Memphis to bounce back tonight, as NBA teams with a .620 (or better) ATS win percentage have cashed 68.9% at home in the post-season since 1990. And favorites of -4 (or more) points off back to back losses by 13+ points have cashed 75% in the post-season since 1990. Indeed, we just saw this situation last Wednesday when the New Orleans Pelicans (-5) defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 113-103, after losing their two previous games by 27 and 21 points. Finally, favorites have cashed 88% in the playoffs if they gave up 123+ points in back to back games. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Miami Heat. These two teams have met twice over the previous 11 days, with the Hawks losing by 4 and 24 points. We'll play on the double-revenge-minded road underdog tonight, as #1-seeds (like Miami) stumble in Game 2 of a series more often than not after posting a blowout win in Game 1. Indeed, #1-seeded teams have covered just 28% as a favorite of 6+ points against .520 (or better) foes following a 6-point (or better) win to open a series. That doesn't bode well for Erik Spoelstra's men tonight. Nor does the fact the Heat are an awful 26-55, 32% ATS at home off a division home win. Grab the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-22 | Devils v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 goals over the New Jersey Devils. It's crunch-time in Las Vegas. The team which has made the NHL post-season in each of its first four years in the League is in danger of not making it in 2022. Prior to the Monday games, the Golden Knights are sitting three points behind the Los Angeles Kings, and four points behind the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators with six games to go. The Knights will need to overtake at least one of those teams to reach the post-season. The good news for Vegas is that it has played one less game than Los Angeles -- the closest team to it in the standings. But the bad news is that the Kings' final five games are all against teams outside of the Playoff picture. So, Vegas definitely has the odds against it. Tonight, the Golden Knights will look to sweep the season series against the Devils, who they defeated last December, 5-3. In fact, Vegas has beaten the Devils in each of the last four meetings going back to January 2019. The Devils are also 2-5 in their last seven games against Western Conference foes including 0-4 in their last four vs. the Pacific Division. Meanwhile, the Knights are 41-14 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take Vegas minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Utah Jazz. In last Sunday's final regular season game, Jason Kidd's gameplan was to play Luka Doncic for three quarters against the San Antonio Spurs. But with less than three minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, his All-Star strained his left calf. Sometimes, one's best-laid plans go awry. The Mavericks put up a game fight in Saturday's 99-93 loss, but had poor offensive execution, and missed too many free throws. Certainly, they'll have to be better in those areas tonight. The good news for Dallas is that underdogs off a SU/ATS loss that are down 1 game in a playoff series have covered 57.3% since 1990. And the Mavericks are 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a loss when they've trailed in a playoff series. Take the Mavericks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -10 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans are (by far) the worst team in the playoffs. They were 36-46 in the regular season, but were able to sneak into the playoffs by defeating a Los Angeles Clippers team which was without its All-Star, Paul George, due to COVID-19. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, Phoenix -- the league's #1 team with 64 wins -- won't be missing any key personnel this afternoon. Even worse for the Pelicans: it's playing this game with just 1 day off, while the Suns have been off for 6 days. And .650 (or worse) teams have covered just 26% of playoff games since 1990 if their opponent had at least 5 more days of rest. Moreover, NBA teams with a losing record are 51-92-7 ATS their last 150 playoff games. And teams with a win percentage at least .325 worse than their opponent have gone 0-8 SU/ATS in the opening game of a playoff series. Lay the points with the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-22 | Sharks v. Wild -245 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the San Jose Sharks. The red-hot Minnesota Wild were 12-3 in their last 15 games coming into Saturday's all-important match-up with the St. Louis Blues. Unfortunately for them, the Blues prevailed in overtime, 6-5, thereby knocking them out of a tie for second place in the Central Division. Minnesota hopes that setback is temporary as it regroups today to host the 29-45 Sharks at the Xcel Energy Center. Unlike the Wild, San Jose isn't playing for anything as it looks ahead to what it hopes will be a productive off-season leading to a winning campaign in 2022-2023. The Sharks have been particularly bad on the road, winning just five times in their last 24 games away from the Bay Area. They are also 7-20 in their last 27 vs. teams from the Western Conference including 0-6 in their last six vs. Central clubs. Meanwhile Minnesota is 4-0 in its last four vs. the Pacific Division and 65-29 in its last 94 vs. teams with a winning percentage of .400 or less. Take the Wild. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-22 | Blue Jackets v. Kings -185 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Kings are locked in a tight battle with the Vegas Golden Knights for a playoff spot. Los Angeles sits 1 point ahead of Vegas, but has also played 1 more game. The good news for Los Angeles is that each of its last six games are against teams that are outside of the Playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are a poor 3-10 their last 13 against teams that would be in the Playoffs with their current point totals. We played against Los Angeles in its last game, and were rewarded with a 9-3 blowout win by Colorado. Off that horrible game, we'll switch gears and take the Kings tonight, as they're 24-15 (+14.2 net games on the moneyline) off blowout loss by 3+ goals. And they're 22-9 this season vs. Eastern conference teams. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-22 | Jets v. Panthers -244 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Winnipeg Jets. It's looking like the Panthers will earn the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the post-season but also still wants to make a push to overtake the Avalanche for the #1 NHL record. In addition to having the best record in the Eastern Conference -- and the only team in there with over 50 victories -- the Panthers' +89 goal differential is also tops. They've done it with a balanced attack, which is evident when you look at all the offensive leaders in the league and the only Florida name you see is Jonathan Huberdeau, who leads in assists (77) and is second in points (105). The Panthers come into this home contest against the Jets having won eight games in a row, including a huge 7-6 OT win over the Maple Leafs that could serve as a Quarter-Finals preview. They have been putting the puck on net with a frequency rarely seen, posting 40 shots or more in seven of those eight games, including 55 in their last one -- a 3-2 win over the Ducks. The Jets are 1-4 in their last five games against teams with a winning record. And they're also 9-19 (minus 6.65 net games on the moneyline) as an underdog, including 1-6 when the O/U was more than 6 goals. Meanwhile Florida is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings of these two, and 14-1 its last 15 when priced as a favorite of -180 (or more). Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-22 | Senators v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins minus 1.5 goals over the Ottawa Senators. While the Caps keep winning games, the Bruins are losing them, making the race for the playoff match-ups in the East very interesting. The Bruins lost to the Blues on Tuesday night, despite out-shooting them by 11 (41-30). That's three losses in their last four games and they're now only three points ahead of the Caps in the Wild Card race. They're also just one game behind the Lightning, so their last nine games could mean the difference between a top-three Divisional finish and the last available playoff spot. They're back home again tonight, but instead of facing a team that is fighting for its own playoff position, as St. Louis is doing, it's the Senators that are coming to Bean Town. Ottawa is 14-22 on the road this season. And although it's won three of its last four away from home, those three wins came against the likes of the Canadiens and Red Wings (twice). Series don't get much more one-sided than this one as Boston is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings and 6-0 in the last six at home. Take the Bruins minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-13-22 | Kings v. Avalanche -235 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Los Angeles Kings. The Avs are on a major roll right now, with six straight wins. And they'll have an advantage tonight against an unrested Kings team which played at Chicago last night. Even worse for the Kings: they're playing their 3rd game in four nights, and have to play without rest in a high-altitude city (Denver). In contrast, Colorado is extremely well-rested, as it has been four days (April 9 vs Edmonton) since it has played. The Avalanche are a terrific 22-2 at home off 3 (or more) wins. And Colorado is 8-0 vs. the Kings since March 12, 2021, with the average win by 2.88 goals. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-22 | Blues v. Bruins -149 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the St. Louis Blues. The red-hot Bruins lost a tough one on Sunday afternoon in DC as the surging Capitals got the better of them in a tough, close-checking affair. Despite now losing two of its last three, Boston needn't panic as it is still sitting in a very good position in the East with the #1 Wild Card spot looking secure and only one point behind the Lightning for a top-three finish in the Atlantic. Most important, six of the Bruins last 10 games are here at home, beginning with this Monday night affair against a Blues squad that they haven't faced since October 2019. The Blues come in having won their last five, however three of those victories were against the likes of the Islanders, Kraken, and Coyotes -- and all three at home. They may be 42-30 overall, but on the road, the Blues are just a .500 team this season (17-17). They are also just 3-8 in their last 11 games against teams from the East. The Bruins come home after a week on the road, and they are 16-5 in their last 21 home games after a road trip of at least seven days. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs -9 | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs' chase for the #9 slot officially ended with last night's loss at home to the Golden State Warriors. With nothing to play for tonight, we'll fade Gregg Popovich's crew in Dallas. The Mavericks still aspire to get to the #3 position, which would happen with a win vs. San Antone, and a loss by the Warriors in New Orleans. Since February 4, Dallas is 22-7 SU and 21-8 ATS. And it's 24-3 SU and 18-9 ATS its last 27 when laying 9+ points. The Mavericks blew out Portland by 50 points in its last game. And NBA favorites off late-season wins (final 11 games of the season) by > 36 points have gone 28-0 SU and 20-7-1 ATS, including a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in their final home game of the season. Lay the points with the Mavericks. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-10-22 | Thunder v. Clippers -10 | Top | 88-138 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Clips continue to roll as we end the season. Last night, they blew out Sacramento here, at home, 117-98. And they're clearly on a mission, as their 4-game win streak started with a 153-119 victory AT MILWAUKEE -- in a game Paul George didn't even play! Los Angeles is now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with its only ATS defeat coming against the Suns, when Phoenix had to outscore the Clippers, 48-26, in the fourth quarter just to get the cover. Still, Los Angeles played great for most of that game, as it even went on a 21-0 run to establish a huge lead. Tonight, the Clippers will close out the season with a game against 24-57 Oklahoma City, which has long since been eliminated from playoff contention. OKC comes into this game off a 120-101 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers. And the Lakers had dropped eight straight games prior to that contest. We'll lay the points, as NBA teams with a win percentage > .300 have gone 71.8% ATS since 2009 in the season's final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage < .300. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 146-141 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. This will not be a star-studded affair. Denver's MVP Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight, while Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis are all out for the Lakers. The Nuggets come into this game off a 122-109 blowout win over Memphis, on Thursday. They currently reside in the 6th seed, and can get as high as #5 with a win tonight, and an improbable loss by Utah vs. Portland. But it's extremely unlikely, and it may also not even be desirable by Denver, given that it might prefer the 2-3-6-7 pathway rather than the 1-4-5-8 path (so as to avoid playing Phoenix until the conference finals, at the earliest). But regardless of Denver's incentive, we're going to lay the points tonight against the hapless Lakers. This season, the Lakers were one of the biggest disappointments in league history. They were tabbed by many to be one of the top 3 teams in the entire NBA, but wound up missing the playoffs entirely. So, with this final game being played on the road, and also being Los Angeles' 3rd game in four days, we'll fade them, and lay the points with Denver. Indeed, NBA road underdogs have gone 18-38 ATS in their final game of the regular season, if they were playing their 3rd game in four days, and their opponent was rested and off an ATS win. Take Denver minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-22 | Bulls v. Wolves -7 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
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04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks +5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Toronto. The Knicks are a home underdog to end the regular season, after blowing out Washington, 114-92, on Friday. Since 1990, home dogs have cashed 58% in their final game of the regular season, if they were off a SU win in their previous game. Take the Knicks + the points. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons v. 76ers -14.5 | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Detroit. Philly is 50-31, and still has an outside shot at the #3 seed in the Eastern conference (it would need a win coupled with a Celtics loss). We'll lay the points, as Philly will be playing this game with revenge from a 102-94 loss at Detroit 10 days ago. But revenge-minded favorites of more than 12 points have gone 9-0 ATS since 1990 if it was the final game of the regular season for both teams. Lay the points. |