Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-07-22 | Lakers v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles. The 2021-22 Lakers have been the most disappointing team in recent memory. Pegged by many to be a Top 3 NBA team, the Lakers flamed out, and failed to make the Playoffs entirely. It's true Los Angeles sustained injuries this season. But so did Golden State, yet the Warriors powered through, and currently reside in the #3 spot out West. Golden State's on a 3-game ATS win streak, and has won its last 2 games, straight-up. However, Dallas is right behind Golden State, and sits just a half-game behind, so I expect the Warriors to be ultra-focused tonight. The Warriors did lose their previous game to the Lakers. But they're 93-60 ATS when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS their last 11 at home . And they're 38-24 ATS off 3 ATS wins. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Memphis. The Nuggets are still incentivized to win, as Minnesota is chasing down their necks for the #6 spot, while Denver can still catch Utah for the #5 spot. This is Memphis' final road game of the season. The Grizzlies are locked into the #2 seed in the Western conference, so they don't have the same incentive as Denver (but, of course, that's not to say the Grizzlies won't continue to play hard). Regardless, since 1990, playoff-bound NBA teams that were off a SU loss in their previous game, have covered just 37% in their final road game of the season, if they were installed as an underdog. Lay the points with Denver. |
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04-07-22 | Sabres v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes minus the 1.5 goals over the Buffalo Sabres. The Hurricanes looked like world-beaters and the likely favorite to get to the Cup Finals from the East only a few short weeks ago. But the team which won their only NHL Championship back in 2006 has lost eight of its last 12 games, including three of its last four coming into tonight. The good news is that Carolina still has a dozen games to try to get itself straightened out for the playoffs. That should be plenty of time for Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Frederik Andersen & Co. to figure things out. This is a back-to-back revenge situation for the 'Canes who just lost to the Sabres in Buffalo, 4-2, on Tuesday. Still, the Sabres' 3.62 goals-against-average in 34 road games this season ranks as the fifth-worst such number in the league (tied with Philadelphia). Coupled with their 2.56 road goal scoring rate, that results in a negative differential of greater than one goal away from home. Buffalo is 8-18 in its last 26 when playing the second game of a home-and-home series. Take the Hurricanes minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston. Each of these teams enters tonight's game with 30 losses, so the winner will have a leg-up on a higher seed in the Playoffs. This is Milwaukee's final home game of the season, NBA teams are 128-96-4 ATS when playing their final home game, and priced from -3.5 to -7 points (Milwaukee is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in this situation). Take Milwaukee. |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers -140 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Phoenix. The Suns played last night, and defeated the Lakers in Phoenix. But off that win, we'll fade the Suns against a revenge-minded Clippers group looking to reach the .500 mark. Los Angeles has won its last two games -- both in impressive fashion. They blew out Milwaukee on the road, 153-119. And then came home to whip New Orleans 119-100. The Clippers already defeated the Suns here at Crypto.com Arena this season, and are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 home regular season meetings vs. Phoenix. Finally, the Suns fall into a negative 36.5% ATS late-season system of mine which goes against certain unrested teams off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-06-22 | Red Wings v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets -1.5 goals over the Detroit Red Wings The Jets lost here at home to the Kings back on Saturday night. They've had four days in Winnipeg to think about that defeat and how they can't afford too many more of those if they are to get up into post-season contention. Enter the Detroit Red Wings -- fresh off an upset home win over Boston last night. But Detroit's road record is one of the worst in the league and the Wings are one of only four teams in the League with less than 10 victories away from home (all four of those clubs are in the East). That has to have the Jets feeling pretty good about their chances of bouncing back tonight and picking up a couple of much-needed points in the standings. This is the second meeting of these two teams this season, with the Jets taking an easy 3-0 decision in Detroit back on January 13. That's the way this series has been going lately, with Winnipeg taking five of the last six meetings going back to March of 2018. To say this is a bad situation for Detroit is a huge understatement as the Wings are 17-73 in their last 90 games as a road dog. And they're 0-12 their last 12 games as an underdog, if they won their previous game (with 11 of the 12 coming by 2+ goals). Take the Jets minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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04-05-22 | Lakers v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns have rolled to the best record in the league. They're 62-16 with four games to go. But Phoenix was upset by the Oklahoma City Thunder in its last game, and that was its second straight loss, overall. And it also was its 3rd straight ATS defeat. But Phoenix is 5-0 ATS this season off 3 ATS losses. And it's 63-38 ATS off 3 point spread losses when it owned a winning record. The Suns have won six straight vs. the Lakers, and the last five have been by 29, 18, 10, 13 and 30 points. Take the Suns minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-05-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver. The Spurs are closing in on an improbable berth in the Play-in round. Prior to the season, most pegged the Spurs to win between 24 and 28 games this season. But, with four to play, San Antonio is 33-45, and is on the doorstep of clinching the #10 seed (with an outside shot of finishing #9). The Spurs are 14-5 ATS as road underdogs of +6 (or more) points this season (and 27-10 ATS their last 37 in this role). Take San Antonio + the points. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis. Certainly, these two teams have had contrasting seasons. Utah had hopes to repeat its strong 2020-21 season, where it owned the #1 record in the entire league (52-20). But the Jazz have struggled, and are in 6th in the West, with a 46-32 record. In contrast, the Grizzlies were 8th in the West last season, with a 38-34 record, but have taken a massive leap forward this year. The Grizzlies own the NBA's #2 record (55-23), and also are the league's best team against the point spread (65.3% ATS). Memphis, perhaps, had its best game of the season this past Friday when it upset the league's best team -- Phoenix -- 122-114, as a 7.5-point home underdog. But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Grizzlies on the road tonight, as they fall into a negative 146-234 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over > .800 foes. The fact remains that Memphis is locked into the #2 spot out West, and has less incentive to win tonight than does Utah. The Jazz are in a tight battle with Denver for the #5 slot, and can also move as high as #4, and fall as low as #7. Take the Jazz minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-05-22 | Blazers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Sunday, when they shocked Phoenix, 117-96, as a 14-point home underdog. But tonight the Thunder aren't an underdog -- they're favored against Portland (which has lost 7 straight). And favored teams have covered just 33% since 1990 off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater underdog), if they were matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Trail Blazers + the points. |
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04-05-22 | Bucks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Chicago. The Bucks come into tonight's game off back to back upset home losses -- to the Clippers and Mavericks. But Milwaukee is a fantastic 42-10 SU and 38-14 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of -3.5 to -11 points, if it was off back to back defeats, including a perfect 9-0 ATS in division games. Lay the points with the Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-05-22 | Avalanche v. Penguins -115 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over Colorado. This is the 2nd of a home-and-home series between the two clubs. Colorado won in Denver, 3-2, on Saturday. We'll take the Penguins in this rematch, as they're 30-11 when playing with revenge, including 11-0 at home if they lost the previous meeting by a single goal. And they're 46-22 (+7.4 net games on the moneyline) at home when the total was 6 (or more) goals. The Pens are also 7-3 the last 10 meetings here, in Pittsburgh, vs. Colorado. Take the Penguins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-04-22 | Flames -165 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Los Angeles Kings. The top two teams in the Pacific Division face off tonight for the second time in less than a week. The Kings just beat the Flames in Calgary on the last day of March (although it took a shootout to do it), so this is a revenge situation tonight. The lead that the Flames had enjoyed over the Kings in the Pacific has been dwindling of late, thanks to a home-stand that didn't go as planned in Calgary. In the just-concluded six straight games that the Flames enjoyed at home, they managed only two wins. Maybe a trip south to the recently re-named Crypto.com Arena (it sounds so strange not calling it Staples Center) will reverse their fortunes. The Kings are anything but healthy right now, with no fewer than eight regular skaters currently out with various ailments. Los Angeles also hasn't exactly been tearing it up at home this season (18-18) -- and in their last nine here they are just 4-5. Even worse: the Kings are 1-5 in their last six games following a victory, while Calgary is 5-2 in its last seven road games. Finally, the Flames are an awesome 42-25 (+11.2 net games on the moneyline) after giving up 4+ goals. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over New Orleans. The Clippers welcomed All-Star Paul George back on Tuesday, and they defeated Utah, 121-115. We played on Los Angeles in that home game, and we'll back the Clippers again tonight, at home. Los Angeles comes into this game off the highest-scoring victory in the NBA against a winning opponent the past two seasons. Los Angeles walloped Milwaukee, 153-119, and home teams have covered 71 percent since 1990 after scoring more than 148 points in a win. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-22 | Blazers +14.5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over San Antonio. We played on San Antonio two nights ago, and were rewarded with a 130-111 blowout win over these Trail Blazers. But we'll take the double-digits with Portland in the rematch, as double-digit road underdogs have covered 68.2% in the regular season over the last 31 years, if the two teams were playing the 2nd of back-to-back games, and our underdog lost SU/ATS in the prior meeting. Take the points with Portland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-22 | Golden Knights v. Canucks -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Vegas Golden Knights. Both of these teams are on the outside-looking-in when it comes to the Western conference playoff race. But Vancouver is in the MUCH WORSE position, as it is 8 points behind Dallas, while Vegas sits just 1 points in back of the Stars. So this game is critical for the Canucks' post-season hopes. We'll take the homestanding Canucks, as they have had the last three days off, and are 12-3 when playing with 3 days (or more) of rest. Additionally, the Golden Knights have won just two of their last nine road games. Both of those wins (by scores of 3-0 and 5-2) were against Seattle in Vegas' two most recent games. Unfortunately for Vegas, it's a poor 10-14 (minus 13.2 net games on the moneyline) off back to back blowout wins by 3+ goals. Take Vancouver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-22 | Wild v. Capitals -120 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Minnesota Wild. Unlike the West, the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference of the NHL is pretty clear. There is a 13-point gap between the Caps -- in the final Wild Card Spot -- and the next team (NYI). Exactly where the Caps finish the season is still up for grabs, and they certainly would like to improve their position between now and the end of the month. Washington has had almost a week to think about one of its worst losses of the season -- a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of the Hurricanes last Monday. With the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament coming into Minneapolis, the Wild have had to leave town after a hugely successful nine-game home-stand (7-2). They upset the Hurricanes in Raleigh last night, but are just 2-5 in their last seven games playing on zero days of rest. The Wild are also 2-7 in their last nine trips to Washington. On the flip side, the extended break should do the Caps good as they are 18-8 in their last 26 playing with three or more days of rest. Take Washington. |
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04-03-22 | Flyers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers -1.5 goals over the Philadelphia Flyers. Rangers fans really hate seeing their team lose at home these days. Even more, they hate seeing them get shut out at home by their cross-town rivals, which is what happened on Friday, here, at Madison Square Garden, when the Islanders came in and blanked the home team, 3-0. That had to hurt, especially considering the Rangers are battling the Penguins for second place in their division (and the home ice advantage which comes with it). The Flyers on the other hand have phoned in the season. They were bad before the trade deadline but then they got worse when they traded their only true franchise player -- Captain Claude Giroux -- to the Panthers. In five games since the trade, Philly is 1-4 and has been out-scored by a combined 21-11 in those four losses. Sure, there's a lot of great history between these two teams and they've seen many exciting and close battles in the past, but tonight does not figure to be one. Philly is 9-19 in the last 28 trips to New York and the favorite is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Take the Rangers minus 1.5 goals. |
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04-02-22 | Blues v. Flames -240 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -240 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the St. Louis Blues. These two teams have played each other twice since the calendar flipped to 2022, with the home team winning convincingly in each case. On January 24, the Flames steamrolled the Blues here, 7-1, and then three days later the Blues returned the favor with a 5-1 thumping in St. Louis. The Flames are at the end of a six-game home-stand in which they've won only twice so far. They've lost their last two games here (Tuesday and Thursday) and that's the third time this season they've lost back-to-back at home. But in each of the other two cases, they came back and won their next game (and in each case, they put the puck in the net six times). The Flames are healthy just in time for the playoffs, and have a nice five-point cushion in the Pacific Division with 15 games to go. The Blues come into tonight off a tough, overtime loss in Edmonton last night, and are 0-4 in their last four when playing on zero days of rest. Additionally, the favorite is 38-15 in the last 53 meetings of these two, while the Flames are 7-2 in their last nine vs. teams from the Central Division. Take Calgary . As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-02-22 | Nets v. Hawks +2 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Brooklyn Nets. These two teams are tied at 40-37 with five games remaining. So, this game will go a long way toward determining each team's playoff seed. Atlanta has won and covered its last four games, while Brooklyn has lost its last three in a row to the point spread. And that's key, as home teams have cashed 65% since 1990 in the final five regular season games, if they were on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak. Even better: Atlanta plays this game with revenge from 2 losses to Brooklyn earlier in the season. And winning teams, off back to back wins, have cashed 65% since 1990 as home underdogs when playing with double-revenge. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas -4 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 130 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Villanova. We played on each of these teams in the last round, and easily got the $$$ with Kansas -5.5 over Miami (76-50) and Villanova +2.5 over Houston (50-44). We'll lay the points with the #1-seeded Jayhawks on Saturday, and go against the #2-seeded Wildcats off their upset win. Indeed, NCAA Tournament #2 seeds are a woeful 0-12-2 ATS off an upset tourney win, if they were an underdog of 6 or less points in their previous game. And NCAA teams off an upset win, have also gone just 28-49-2 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points. Even better: teams (like Kansas) off blowout NCAA Tourney wins by more than 25 points have gone 56-35-4 ATS when priced from +1 to -10 points. Finally, the Jayhawks are a fantastic 52-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins. Lay the points with Kansas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the New Orleans Pelicans. It's "do-or-die" for Anthony Davis & Co. The Lakers will likely have to go 4-2 or 5-1 over their final 6 games in order to leapfrog San Antonio for the #10 seed in the Western conference. But it will be a tall task, as the Lakers have road games vs. the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets among their final six games. So, this game is a virtual "must-win." We'll take Los Angeles, as it falls into a 133-95 ATS revenge system of mine. Additionally, LeBron James' teams are 19-11 ATS their last 30 off 4+ losses. And they've cashed 61% in his career as a home favorite off back to back losses, when playing with revenge. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-22 | Blazers v. Spurs -14.5 | Top | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland. The Spurs come into tonight's game off a heart-breaking loss to Memphis. But the Spurs are still 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, and currently reside in 10th place in the Western conference, which would earn them a spot in the Play-in tournament. San Antonio also owns the tie-breaker over 11th-seeded Los Angeles, and has the easier remaining schedule, to boot. This will be the first of back-to-back home games vs. the injury-riddled Trail Blazers, so it should be two games in the win column for the Spurs. When the Spurs and Blazers met nine days ago in Portland, it was a blowout from the start, as the Spurs sprinted out to a 45-27 lead after 1 quarter en route to a 37-point win. Unfortunately for Portland, two of its starters in that game (Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow) are now injured and won't suit up tonight. The Spurs are 50-0 SU and 35-14-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 points off a straight-up loss. Lay the points with San Antonio. |
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04-01-22 | Mavs -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 103-135 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Washington Wizards. The last time Dallas had home court advantage in the opening Playoff round (i.e., seeded 4th or better) was in 2011, when it won the NBA Championship. So, the Mavericks are on a mission to earn a high seed, and currently are 2 games ahead of Denver and Utah for the all-important home court advantage in round 1. Since New Year's Eve, Dallas is 32-11 SU and 28-15 ATS. And it's 10-1 ATS its last 11 (and 24-9-2 ATS its last 35) on the road when playing with revenge. With the Mavs, indeed, playing with revenge from a 6-point loss to Washington earlier in the season, we'll lay the points tonight. |
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03-31-22 | Lakers v. Jazz -12 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles. We played against the Jazz on Tuesday night, and were rewarded with an upset win by the LA Clippers. That was Utah's fifth straight defeat. But all four were on the road. Tonight's game is back in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz have gone 142-97-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses when not favored by 13.5 points. Additionally, the Jazz were defeated twice by Los Angeles earlier this season, and fall into several of my better NBA revenge systems, with records of 87-48, 58-32 and 155-98 ATS. Finally, NBA teams with a win percentage > .529 have cashed 63% at home off 5+ losses, when not getting more than 2 points. Lay the points with Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-31-22 | Devils v. Bruins -240 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New Jersey Devils. The Bruins were shellacked by Toronto, 6-4, on Tuesday, but were arguably the hottest team in the league for the month of March. In fact, since February 19, Boston's NHL team has compiled a blistering 14-4 record. But nobody knows better than the Bruins that having a great six week run a month before the playoffs could mean absolutely nothing, and that's why Boston wants to stay focused on playing at the same level into April. And it's game like the one tonight where keeping that focus is ultra-critical. Sure, the Devils are going nowhere this season and they would seem to be completely out-manned in this situation, but a caged dog can be awfully dangerous and the Bruins can ill-afford to have a let-down against a bad team, especially given how close the standings are (Boston is just three points ahead of the Capitals for the final Wild Card). This is not a friendly place for the Devils as they are just 5-16 in their last 21 at TD Garden. The Bruins are also 31-12 in the last 43 meetings of these two, while the favorite is 36-17 in the last 53. Finally, the Bruins are a solid 7-1 this season after allowing 5+ goals (and 10-1 after allowing 3+ goals in back-to-back games). Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-31-22 | Xavier +4.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over Texas A&M. The Aggies have certainly been impressive in this year's NIT Tournament. They kicked things off with a 74-62 win over Alcorn State, and then followed that up with blowouts of Oregon (75-60), Wake Forest (67-52) and Washington State (72-56). But off those four double-digit wins, we'll fade Texas A&M and grab the points with Xavier. Indeed, since 1990, NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the non-conference, post-season tournaments when favored by less than 16 points (or PK) off four straight wins by 12+ points. That doesn't bode well for the Aggies tonight. Nor does the fact that Xavier is a powerful 43-18-3 ATS as an underdog after covering the spread by 6+ points in its previous game, including 14-1 ATS its last 15 post-season games. Take the Musketeers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Golden State. The Suns come into tonight's match-up on an 8-game win streak, and refuse to take the pedal off the metal. Phoenix has won its last eight games by 29, 16, 17, 27, 3, 9, 10 and 10 points for a 7-1 ATS record. We'll lay the points with the Suns tonight, as they're 18-0 straight-up, and 17-1 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the year! Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-22 | Blues v. Canucks -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the St. Louis Blues. These two teams are both fighting for the post-season in the Western Conference -- but under very different circumstances. While the Blues are attempting to stay out of the Wild Card and earn a top three spot in their Division (36-20-9; 81 points), the Canucks are trying to make their way into the Wild Card as they are currently four points out of the final spot (32-27-9; 73 points). This back end of a home-and-home series which started with a 4-1 Blues win on Monday in St. Louis is going to be critical to Vancouver's playoff chances. Perhaps the Canucks' brightest star lately has been their 26-year-old, U.S.-born goalie, Thatcher Demko, who has stepped up and taken over as the #1 man in net (over the more experienced Jaroslav Halak). Demko was brilliant in Vancouver's last win over the Stars on Saturday (with Halak playing in the Monday loss), so expect Demko back in there tonight. St. Louis is 1-5 in its last six games vs. teams with a losing record. And Vancouver is 5-1 this season, and 29-21 (+14.6 net games on the moneyline) its last 50 when playing with double revenge. Take the Canucks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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03-30-22 | Grizzlies v. Spurs +6.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Memphis. San Antonio has passed the Lakers for the 10th overall seed in the Western conference (the two teams are tied at 31-44, but the Spurs own the tie-breaker). So, this game is hugely critical for the Spurs' aspiration to reach the Play-in round. In contrast, this game has relatively little meaning for Memphis, as it is virtually locked into the #2 position, as it is 5 games ahead of Golden State, with just six to play. The Spurs lost at Memphis by 13 points four weeks ago. But the Spurs are 36-21-1 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with revenge. Take San Antonio. |
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03-30-22 | Heat +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston. With just 12 days left in the season, there's a 4-team logjam at the top of the Eastern conference. Miami sits in first, a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, 1 game ahead of Boston, and 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia. So, tonight's game will go a long way toward determining the eventual Playoff seeds. We'll grab the points with Miami, as it is 16-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes with a .610 (or better) win percentage. Take the Heat. |
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03-29-22 | Jazz v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Utah Jazz. Paul George has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the homestanding Clippers. George (24.7 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 5.5 apg) has been absent since December 22, and the Clippers have faltered badly. With George in the lineup this season, the Clippers actually have had a winning record; without him, they haven't. He missed both games earlier this season at Utah, and the Jazz blew out Los Angeles in those two games. But this game is at home, where the Clippers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings, with the average victory by 14 points. Utah is an awful 2-18 SU and 3-16-1 ATS on the road when the Jazz weren't favored by 3 or more points. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier +1.5 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have no doubt been impressive in their run to Madison Square Garden. St. Bonaventure was a #5 seed when the bracket was released, and has won three road games (against Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia) to reach this semi-final round. The Bonnies were underdogs in each of those three games. But now they are favored. And St. Bonaventure is a wallet-breaking 17-26 ATS as a favorite off an upset win. So, we'll happily take the points with Xavier. Moreover, since 1990, NIT Tourney teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33%. That bodes well for Xavier tonight. As does the fact that the Musketeers have covered 77% since 1990 away from home vs. foes off back to back upset wins. Take the underdog Musketeers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State -7 | Top | 48-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:00 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Southern Utah. We played on the Thunderbirds on Saturday vs. Portland, and got the $$$ in a 77-66 blowout win. But that game was at home, in Cedar City; tonight's game is on the road, in Fresno. And Southern Utah is a soft 19-28 ATS away from home as an underdog of +8 (or less) points. It's true that Fresno has failed to cover the spread in its two tournament games (vs. Eastern Washington and Youngstown). But NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses have covered 59.3% in the post-season since 1990 when favored by more than 5 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Lay the points with Fresno St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston. After the Spurs upset New Orleans on Saturday, and the Los Angeles Lakers were defeated by the same Pelicans team yesterday, the Spurs are in prime position to pass the Lakers for the #10 seed, and a spot in the Play-in round. San Antonio currently sits just one game behind Los Angeles with eight to play. But the Spurs have the far easier schedule, and also own the tie-breaker. Of San Antonio's final eight games, three are against teams outside the Playoff picture (including this game vs. Houston tonight), while the Lakers have just one game against a non-contending team. We'll lay the points with the Spurs, who are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games. Meanwhile, Houston is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five vs. foes in the Playoff chase, and 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS its last 19 vs. such foes. Finally, the Spurs are 17-6-1 ATS on the division road, including 9-1 ATS off a win in their previous game, while Houston is 6-14 ATS at home vs. division rivals. Lay the points with San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-22 | Kings v. Heat -12.5 | Top | 100-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento. The Heat are in a major swoon right now, as they've lost four straight games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven straight. This downturn has brought Miami back to the rest of the Eastern conference pack, and there is currently a four-way tie in the Loss column, as each of Boston (47-28), Miami (47-28), Milwaukee (46-28) and Philadelphia (46-28) have 28 losses. The good news for the Heat tonight is that they're relatively healthy, with just G Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) questionable to play, due to a knee injury. In contrast, Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox (23.2 ppg) and Domantas Sabonis (18.9 ppg). Miami is 56-28 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win, including 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 when playing an opponent with a .420 (or worse) win percentage. Take Miami minus the points. |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Boston. The Raptors will be at an advantage tonight at home vs. an unrested Boston squad which had to play on Sunday vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Toronto is an awesome 32-9 ATS as a home favorite in the regular season vs. Atlantic division rivals, including a perfect 10-0 ATS vs. .572 (or better) foes. Take Toronto. |
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03-27-22 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs -110 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over Florida. Petr Mrazek (finally) played a solid game in goal for Toronto when he stopped 20 shots en route to a 3-2 victory over New Jersey on Wednesday. And, per his coach, Sheldon Keefe, he had an exceptional practice on Friday. Mrazek has never been one to lack confidence -- even when things were going poorly this season -- and will be back between the pipes tonight in this critical division game vs. Florida. I expect him to once again play very well. We'll take the Leafs, as Toronto is 47-24 (+9.1 net games on the money line) vs. winning teams, and 15-3 at home vs. explosive offensive teams that score 2.85 (or more) goals per game. Take the Maple Leafs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-22 | 76ers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Phoenix. The Sixers play this game with revenge from a 5-point upset loss to the Suns last month. We'll grab the points, as Philly is 48-29 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss. Even better: the Suns enter this evening's contest off back to back upset wins. But .745 (or better) NBA teams off back to back upsets have covered just 20 of 60 home games when favored by 3+ points. Take Philly + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-22 | Red Wings v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins minus 1.5 goals over Detroit. The Red Wings lost in overtime, 2-1, to Tampa Bay yesterday. And that defeat extended Detroit's poor record as an underdog of +180 (or more) to 1-13 this season. Detroit did cover the 1.5 goals on the puckline yesterday, but it's still just 3-11 in those 14 games on the puckline. We'll go against Detroit in Pittsburgh today, as the Penguins will be looking to bounce back off back to back road losses to the Sabres and Rangers. Detroit is a poor 7-35 on the road when the total is 6+ goals, while the Pens are 36-18 when playing with revenge. Lay the 1.5 goals with Pittsburgh. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Miami-Fla. The #1-seeded Jayhawks come into today's game off back to back point spread losses to Creighton and Providence, while Miami has covered all 3 of its Tourney games. The good news, though, for Bill Self's Jayhawks is that they're an awesome 46-4 SU and 36-13-1 ATS at home, or on neutral courts off back to back ATS losses, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points. And if the game was a post-season game, then our 36-13-1 stat zooms to 10-1, 91% ATS. That bodes well for Kansas this afternoon. As does the fact that Kansas is 51-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins. Take the Jayhawks minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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03-26-22 | Rockets v. Blazers +4 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Houston. This is a rematch of a game played last night -- also here, in Portland. The Rockets blew out the Blazers, 125-106, but we'll take the home dog to get the victory tonight. Portland is a solid 44-15 ATS in non-division games when priced from -2.5 to +6, if it owned a W/L percentage less than .380. And the Blazers are also 98-63 ATS as a home dog of < 5 points. Meanwhile, Houston is a woeful 18-35 ATS as a road favorite vs. losing foes, if the Rockets won/covered as a road favorite in their previous game. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-26-22 | Nets -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami. Our preseason futures pick on the Nets to win the NBA title received some welcome news this week when the State of New York lifted the vaccine mandate for pro athletes and performers. Now, G Kyrie Irving will be allowed to play at home, in Brooklyn, in the Playoffs. There are still a few regular season games to be played, and the Nets are jockeying for playoff positioning as the season winds down. The eighth-seeded Nets lost at home to the #1-seeded Heat, 113-107, earlier this month. We'll take Kevin Durant and Co. to avenge that loss, as Brooklyn is 41-14 ATS on the road when playing with revenge against an opponent with a better record. Take the Nets minus the points. |
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03-26-22 | Bucks v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 102-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Milwaukee. Memphis lost at Milwaukee by 12 points earlier this season. We'll take the Grizzlies in this rematch, as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge from a road loss. And they're 27-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 2 points. Take Memphis. |
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03-26-22 | Bulls v. Cavs -2 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over Chicago. The Bulls, Cavaliers and Raptors are locked into a tight battle in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Chicago sits in 5th place, while Cleveland and Toronto are tied for 6th, just 1 game behind. This race is important because the team which finishes with the worst record will be seeded 7th, and forced to win a game in the Play-in Round to make the playoffs. We'll take the homestanding Cavaliers, as Chicago is 5-18-1 ATS its last 24 road games, including 0-9 ATS its last nine. And Cleveland is 21-12-2 ATS its last 35 home games. Take the Cavs. |
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03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova +3 | Top | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats + the points over Houston. I have all the respect for the job Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, but I'm going to take the points with Villanova in this Elite 8 matchup. The Wildcats are an impressive 35-17 straight-up, and 35-13-4 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3.5 (or less) points, including 14-6-4 ATS as an underdog. It's true that Houston has won and covered 6 straight games. But NCAA Tourney favorites (or PK) off 5+ wins/covers are a soft 15-27 ATS. Take Villanova + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-26-22 | Portland v. Southern Utah -3 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
At 6 pm, in the quarterfinals of The Basketball Classic tournament, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Portland. Southern Utah is at home, and we'll lay the points with the T-Birds, and fade the Pilots, as Portland is a nasty 26-57-2 ATS as an underdog of 14 or less points (or PK) when playing a .640 (or better) opponent. And, since 1990, Big Sky conference teams have covered 57% at home in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, while West Coast Conference teams have covered just 36% on the road in the post-season vs. non-conference foes. Lay the points with Southern Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-26-22 | Spurs +6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans blew out San Antonio, 124-91, eight days ago in the Alamo City. We'll take the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as San Antone is 39-18 ATS when playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat. Take the Spurs + the points. |
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03-26-22 | Lightning -1.5 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning minus 1.5 goals over Detroit. Tampa Bay has been installed as a big favorite this afternoon vs. the Red Wings, and that spells trouble for Detroit. Indeed, the Wings are 1-12 this season as an underdog of +180 or more. And they've only come within a single goal in two of those 13 games. We'll lay the 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay, as the Lightning 58-26 (+21.3 net games) off a loss, including 7-1 off 3+ losses. Take the Lightning minus 1.5 goals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA UNDER 142 | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/North Carolina game. This is a very much a contrarian play, as both of these teams have been playing high scoring games, of late. UCLA went over the total in its previous game vs. St. Mary's, and has played six of its last eight over the total. Meanwhile, North Carolina has gone over in 13 of 18. And these recent results have triggered a very good 62% Totals system of mine which plays certain tournament games UNDER, based on certain data from the teams' previous games. In this NCAA Tourney, the Tar Heels have topped 90 points in their first two tournament games -- each of which went over the total. But off those two very high scoring games, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game against the defensive-minded Bruins. UCLA is surrendering just 64.2 ppg this season and ranks 14th in the country (of 358 teams) in adjusted defensive efficiency. In the Bruins' last 12 games as a favorite, UCLA has allowed just 59.5 ppg, and has not allowed any opponent to reach 70 points. This game will be very low scoring. Take the UNDER. |
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03-25-22 | Flyers v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche minus 1.5 goals over Philadelphia. Colorado lost 3-1 here, at home, to Vancouver, on Wednesday. Still, with 18 games to go, the Avalanche have a league-leading 95 points. So, they're in a great position heading into the final month. Last night, the Flyers snapped their 13-game road losing streak with a 5-2 victory at St. Louis. But we'll look for Philly to revert to its losing ways tonight. The Flyers gave up seven goals when these two teams met in Philadelphia earlier this season. And the Flyers are an awful 1-9 on the road when playing with revenge from a loss by 2+ goals. Additionally, the Avalanche are 16-1 when playing their 3rd home game in a row, and 6-1 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game. Take Colorado minus 1.5 goals. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves -2 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Dallas. The T-Wolves lost a road game to Dallas just four days ago, 110-108. And, then, it also lost its next game, here at home, to the Phoenix Suns. We'll take Minnesota to avenge that defeat against Dallas, as it falls into a 126-69 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams off back to back losses. Even better: Dallas has covered just 34 of 94 non-division road games, if it was off back to back wins, and its foes was off back to back losses. And the Mavs are 11-32 ATS off a win, when playing a .333 (or better) revenge-minded foe. Finally, the T-Wolves are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven home games, and 7-1-1 ATS their last nine home games when playing with revenge. Take the Timberwolves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:39 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Duke. The Red Raiders have the best adjusted defensive efficiency numbers in NCAA basketball this season, while Duke ranks #45 in that metric (of the 358 NCAA teams). And, of the 16 remaining teams, the Blue Devils' defensive efficiency numbers rank #12, ahead of only Providence, Michigan, Purdue and Miami (yes, even lowly Saint Peter's ranks higher than Duke in this metric). For the season, the Red Raiders have given up just 60.1 ppg, while Duke allows 67.2 ppg (for a differential of 7.05). And top 2-seeded teams (like Duke), that give up more than 5 ppg on defense than their opponent, and are installed as an underdog (or PK), have covered just 21.4% in the NCAA Tournament over the past 32 years. That doesn't bode well for Mike Krzyzewski's men tonight. Nor does the fact that Duke tallied 85 points in their victory over Michigan State, as Duke's a woeful 15-35-2 ATS after scoring more than 78 points. Finally, Texas Tech is 15-3 ATS its last 18 vs. .571 (or better) foes, while Duke is 1-7 ATS its last eight vs. .571 (or better) opposition. Take Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-22 | Suns v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 140-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Phoenix. The Suns are 59-14, yet are an underdog tonight against the 43-30 Nuggets. We'll take Denver tonight, as winning NBA teams have gone 276-214 ATS in the final 10 games of a season when favored against an opponent with a better record. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-22 | Sharks v. Oilers -220 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over San Jose. The Sharks acquired goalie Kaapo Kahkonen from the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline, on Monday. And Kahkonen will make his Sharks debut tonight. But in his last five starts, the Wild were 0-5, and he gave up 19 goals in those five games. The Oilers come into this game off a 5-3 loss to Dallas. But the Oilers are 26-13 (+13.6 net games on the moneyline) after allowing more than four goals in their previous game. And they're 59-42 (+8.9 net games) vs. division foes. San Jose does play with revenge from a 3-0 shutout loss to the Oilers last monthy. Unfortunately, the Sharks are 22-43 (minus 16.9 net games) when playing with revenge, and 39-57 (minus 13.3 net games) vs. division rivals. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7 goals; 30 assists) has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, after missing 11 games with a shoulder injury. And his presence will especially be felt on special teams. Take Edmonton. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies upset Brooklyn last night, as a home dog, while the Pacers were upset at home by Sacramento. We'll fade Memphis as teams off upset home wins have covered just 46 of 126 games against foes off upset home losses, if our upsetter wasn't getting more than 10 points in its current game. Take Indiana + the points. |
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03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 10-16-1 ATS their last 27 on the road, and will face a revenge-minded Raptors squad which will look to avenge its 8-point loss to the Cavs earlier this month. Toronto is 7-2 its last nine with playing with revenge, and also falls into a 152-97 ATS revenge system of mine. Additionally, the Raptors were blown out by 14 points on Monday, in Chicago. But Toronto is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 12+ points. Take Toronto minus the points. |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Washington State. The Cougars come into tonight's home game off back to back SU/ATS home wins over Long Beach St. and Northern Iowa. BYU was favored by 5 against the Panthers, and that SU/ATS win extended BYU's ATS record as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) to 81-42-1 ATS, including 8-2 ATS in the post-season, and 57-23 ATS if its opponent's offensive avg. was less than 76.5 ppg. Even better: Washington St. is a poor 61-93-3 ATS as a single-digit road underdog (or PK). Lay the points with BYU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-23-22 | Suns v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Phoenix Suns. The T-Wolves are on a red-hot 10-2 SU/ATS run, and will look to move to within a half-game of the Denver Nuggets for the 6th seed (which would enable them to avoid the play-in round). Minnesota's 6-0 SU/ATS its last six home games, and have won them by an average of 26.8 ppg. And those six games include wins over Golden State (129-114) and Milwaukee (138-119). The T-Wolves are 9-0-2 ATS at home when the Over/Under line is greater than 230 points, 7-0-1 ATS their last seven revenge meetings at home, and they also fall into a 95-36 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Timberwolves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-23-22 | Warriors v. Heat -9 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Golden State. The Warriors are playing the 2nd game of the back-to-back, and will sit Draymond Green and Klay Thompson tonight. Even worse: Steph Curry was already sidelined with a left foot injury. So, the Warriors will be a shell of themselves tonight against a Miami Heat team looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of the 76ers. Miami has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. But the Heat are 50-25 ATS off 3 ATS losses. And they play this game with revenge from a 7-point loss in San Francisco. And that defeat has triggered a great 144-78 ATS revenge system of mine that goes against certain unrested foes. Lay the points with Miami. |
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03-23-22 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over New Jersey. The Leafs have had 3 days off following their loss at Nashville, while the Devils played last night (and won) against the Rangers. We'll take the home team on the puck line, as Toronto is 7-1 its last eight on the puck line vs. the Devils, and 7-0 straight-up its last seven vs. New Jersey -- mostly by blowout -- by scores of 6-1, 7-2, 4-2, 5-4, 7-4, 6-4, and 7-1. Toronto is also 15-6 at home when the total is 6 goals or more, and 12-6 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. And it's 14-1 at home off a road game. Meanwhile, the Devils are a poor 26-48 (minus 9.7 net games) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. And they're 21-40 on the road when the total was 6 (or more) goals. Lay the 1.5 goals with the Maple Leafs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-23-22 | NC-Wilmington +4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the NC Wilmington Seahawks + the points over Middle Tennessee St. The Blue Raiders come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Boston U. (76-46) and Abilene Christian (85-69). But those two blowouts have triggered a negative 11-47-2 ATS system of mine which goes against certain tourney teams off back to back blowouts. Additionally, since 1990, underdogs are a solid 57% ATS in tourney title games if both teams enter off back to back SU/ATS wins. We'll grab the points with NC Wilmington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt +2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Xavier. The 20-13 Musketeers won SU/ATS vs. Florida, 72-56, on Sunday. But Xavier has covered 2 in a row just once in their past 22 games, and are 15-18 ATS on the season. That doesn't bode well against the 19-16 SU/21-13 ATS Commodores, who are 6-1 ATS their last seven tourney games, and 11-3 ATS their last 14, overall. The Musketeers are a poor 23-45-2 ATS as a favorite of -2+ points, including 1-17-1 ATS their last 19 vs. foes with an ATS win percentage > .534. Take Vanderbilt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-22 | Flyers v. Red Wings -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Red Wings over the Philadelphia Flyers. There was a whirlwind of activity as the NHL trade deadline came and went last night and few teams were as busy in the selling market as the Flyers. The volume of players headed elsewhere was not the big news as one name in particular stood out when Philly sent F Claude Giroux to the Florida Panthers (along with two other players). Giroux had been with the Flyers since being drafted in 2008 -- a total of 14+ seasons (a record bested only by the great Bobby Clarke). Even at age 34, Giroux was still one of the most productive players on the team, posting 42 points in 57 games. So don't be surprised if a bad Flyers team is even worse the rest of the way. The Red Wings come home tonight after a four-game road trip that didn't go so well (1-3) and that's key for this match-up as the hosts have been dominating this series (25-9 in the last 34 meetings). The Flyers are a dismal 5-21 in their last 26 road games, including 0-12 their last 12. And the favorite is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two. Take the Red Wings. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-22 | Hawks -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over New York. Last season, the Hawks knocked the Knicks out of the Playoffs. This year, the Knicks have won all three meetings, thus far. We'll take the Hawks, who were upset by New Orleans, 117-112, in their last game. And triple-revenge-minded road favorites have covered 71% since 1990, if they were off an upset loss in their previous game. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-22 | Warriors -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Orlando. The Warriors were upset at home in their two previous games by Boston and San Antonio. But we'll take Golden State to bounce back on the road in Orlando. The Warriors are 22-6 ATS off back to back upset defeats, including 12-0 ATS if their previous game was at home. Meanwhile, the Magic are 0-13-2 ATS as a home dog vs. non-division foes off back to back losses. Lay the points with Golden STate. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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03-22-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Northern Colorado +2.5 | Top | 80-64 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears + the points over NC Wilmington. The Seahawks are 25-9 this season, and have been installed as a favorite in this semi-final game. Unfortunately, favorites have been poor in the CBI Tourney, including 26.3% ATS if they covered the spread by more than 7 points away from home in their previous game. Grab the points with Northern Colorado. |
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03-22-22 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia -2.5 | Top | 52-51 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over St. Bonaventure. This will be the 5th-seeded Bonnies' 3rd straight road game in this NIT Tournament. We'll fade St. Bonaventure, as an underdog vs. the #6-seeded Cavaliers, as higher-seeded underdogs have covered just 32% in the NIT Tourney off back to back NIT wins. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 82-61 ATS at home in Charlottesville. Lay the points with Virginia. |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Minnesota. The Mavericks have lost their last two games SU/ATS, while Minnesota is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four. We'll take the Mavs, as they've cashed 69% at home since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins. Take the Mavs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-22 | Ohio -1.5 v. Abilene Christian | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Ohio University Bobcats over Abilene Christian. Ohio won its first round game, 65-64, vs. Rice, but failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. We played against Ohio in that game, but will lay the points with it tonight. Key stat: Ohio is 52-26 ATS as a favorite of less than 14 points, if it was off back to back ATS losses. Lay the points with the Bobcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -4 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Toronto. Chicago has dropped its last 3 games, and eight of its past 10 (1-9 ATS). However, seven of those 10 games were on the road, where Chicago has gone 16-19 this season. At home, it's been a different story, as Chicago is 25-10 SU and 23-12 ATS. The Bulls are also 65% ATS since 1990 at home when not getting 4+ points, if they're off back to back road losses. Take Chicago. |
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03-21-22 | Pelicans v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans come into this game off back to back upset wins on the road over San Antonio and Dallas. Unfortunately, New Orleans has covered just 21.4% since 1990 as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points off back to back upset road wins. Take Charlotte. |
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03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona -9.5 | Top | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over TCU. Jamie Dixon's Horned Frogs stunned Seton Hall on Friday, with a 69-42 upset win. Unfortunately, they are now saddled with the tall task of defeating Arizona, the nation's 2nd best team. The Wildcats have not lost a home or neutral court game all season (23-0), and they're 74-51 ATS at home or on a neutral court vs. non-conference foes, if their opponent was off a SU win. It's true that TCU is 19-11 ATS on the season, which is the 3rd best ATS record of any team remaining in the tournament. But NCAA teams with a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, off a point spread cover by 13+ points, have gone 93-154-6 ATS in non-conference games as an underdog of +7.5 to +18.5 points when matched up against a foe off a point spread defeat. We'll fade TCU tonight. Lay the points with Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Notre Dame. The Red Raiders scored the most points (97) in the opening round of this NCAA tournament, when they laid waste to Montana State in a 35-point victory. And that bodes well for Texas Tech here, as college basketball tourney teams are currently riding a 35-14-2 ATS run after scoring 95+ points in their previous game. Lay the points with Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -195 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the New York Rangers. The Canes played a rough and tumble game here at home two nights ago against the red-hot Capitals and despite getting out-shot 40-20, seemed like they were in control most of the time. In the end, they fell 4-3 in a shootout, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. They'll try to bounce back this evening, and will be happy to see the New York Rangers, as Carolina's won each of the last four meetings, including this season's only prior match-up back on January 21, a 6-3 Canes victory. Friday's loss to the Caps was Carolina's third in a row and that is a rare happening indeed. What's even harder to find however is the last time this club lost four in a row (in fact you have to go back more than two years to see that occurrence -- February 25th through March 5 of 2020). Carolina should be back to #1 Frederik Andersen in goal tonight (2.08 GAA; .928 save pct.). The home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of these two, and Carolina's also 8-1 after back-to-back losses by a single goal. Take the Hurricanes. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-20-22 | Virginia +3 v. North Texas | Top | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At 6 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Texas. The Over/Under line in this game is 110.5 points. And that number is the lowest Over/Under line of any of the 5436 games played this season! Virginia has excelled in games with low Over/Under lines, and especially on the road, where it is 34-17 ATS in games with O/U lines of 130 or less. The Mean Green, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in 2022 in games with O/U lines of 120 or less. Grab the points with Virginia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State. The Blue Devils have lost five straight games "in Vegas," including their round 1 game vs. Fullerton State, where they won by 17, as an 18.5-point favorite. We'll look for Duke to get back into the win column -- at least where the point spread is concerned -- as ACC teams are 89-57-5 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points when they were on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. And Duke is also 39-25-1 ATS their last 65 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-8-1 ATS their last 24 off 4+ ATS losses). Take Duke minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Boston University v. NC-Greensboro -1.5 | Top | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 5 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Boston U. The Terriers have been poor in the post-season, including 5-14 ATS when the line was 7 points or less. It's true that UNC-Greensboro is on a 4-game ATS losing streak. But the Spartans are an awesome 25-9 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their three previous games. Take North Carolina Greensboro minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Washington State v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 75-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
At 3 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Washington State. The Cougars have been dreadful as a road underdog priced between +2.5 and +10 points, as they're 21-50-3 ATS. Take SMU minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Houston v. Illinois +4.5 | Top | 68-53 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over the Houston Cougars. Illinois won, but failed to cover its point spread on Friday, while Houston blew out UAB to reward its bettors. But off those two results, we'll grab the points with the underdog this afternoon. Indeed, the Big 10 Conference has excelled over the years as underdogs in the NCAA tournament, and especially when getting 5 or less points, as it's 55-30-4 ATS in this role. Even better: the Illini are a superb 110-64-5 ATS off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a point spread win. Take Illinois + the points. |
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03-19-22 | Memphis v. Gonzaga -9.5 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis. The Zags didn't put #16 seed Georgia State away until the later stages of the game. And that might lead some to think Gonzaga is vulnerable this evening. I'm not one of those folks, as I believe Gonzaga will win the title this year. We'll lay the points, as they fall into 54-23 and 85-33 ATS systems of mine which plays on certain #1-seeded teams. Take Gonzaga minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6 | Top | 48-53 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State. The Aggies upset UConn, 70-63, as a 6.5-point underdog, while Arkansas won, but failed to cover the spread in its 75-71 win over Vermont. We'll go against New Mexico State as Western Athletic Conference underdogs are an ugly 5-25-1 ATS in non-conference post-season games off a win, if their foe was off an ATS loss. Take Arkansas minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-19-22 | St. Peter's v. Murray State -8.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Saint Peter's. The 15th-seeded Peacocks pulled an improbable upset as an 18.5-point underdog in the first round when they sent John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats packing. But we will fade Saint Peter's off that huge upset win, as > .600 underdogs that pulled upset wins as a 12-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game have covered the spread in the post-season just 31% the past 32 years. Take Murray State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-19-22 | Rice +6 v. Ohio | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over the Ohio Bobcats. Since its founding in 2008, the CBI Tournament has seen the underdogs dominate in the opening round, with a 57-40-2 ATS record. And that's the way we'll look tonight, as Rice falls into a 24-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the post-season off a blowout loss. Take Rice + the points. |
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03-19-22 | Mavs -1 v. Hornets | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Charlotte. The Hornets enter tonight's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while Dallas lost its previous game. Charlotte, though, is 18-35 ATS at home off 3 SU/ATS wins, while the Mavs are 13-0 ATS as a road favorite off a road loss. Take Dallas minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-19-22 | St. Mary's v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Saint Mary's. The #5-seeded Gaels come into this game off a blowout win over Indiana. Saint Mary's was favored in that game by 2.5 points, and won by 29. But the Gaels are an underdog vs. the #4-seed, UCLA. And that's key, as Saint Mary's has done great over the years as a favorite (252-200-11 ATS), but has been awful as an underdog (81-115-2 ATS). Additionally, the favorite in match-ups between #4 and #5 seeds has gone 19-4 ATS. Take UCLA minus the points. |
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence -2.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars minus the points over Richmond. The Spiders pulled off their fourth straight upset when they upended Iowa, 67-63, as a 9.5-point underdog. But underdogs have covered just 41% in the post-season over the past 32 years off 4 straight upsets. Take Providence minus the points. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Tennessee. The Wolverines have been one of the most under-achieving teams this season. Michigan was tabbed in the preseason to be a Top 5 squad, but has only won 18 of 32 games (14-18 ATS). The good news for Juwan Howard is that his roster does have a lot of talent. We'll take the Wolves + the points, as they're 14-7-1 ATS in the post-season as an underdog. In contrast, the Volunteers have covered just four of 20 non-conference post-season games as a favorite of 8 points or less. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-19-22 | Creighton +12 v. Kansas | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays + the points over Kansas. These two teams met last season, and the Jayhawks edged the Blue Jays, 73-72. Both teams come into this game off impressive wins. Kansas blew out Texas Southern, and covered the 21.5-point spread by 5.5 points. Creighton also covered by 5.5 points, as it upset San Diego State, 72-69, on Thursday, as a 2.5-point underdog. However, the Blue Jays suffered a key loss in that game's overtime session when Ryan Kalkbrenner, sustained a knee injury. Of course, his absence has been accounted for by the oddsmakers, so I have no problem stepping in to take the Blue Jays as a double-digit underdog. For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams have covered 60% since 1990 as an underdog of more than 8 points in non-conference, post-season games. Take Creighton. |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois +7.5 v. UTEP | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
At 3 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over Texas El Paso. Western Illinois has lost its last eight games to the point spread. But this long ATS losing streak has conferred point spread value to the Leathernecks, and has also set them up in one of my better NCAA systems, which has cashed 70% since 1990. Moreover, Western Illinois is 10-0-1 ATS in non-conference games, when priced from +3 to +15 points, while UTEP is a poor 8-16 ATS when favored between -3 and -15 points against non-conference opposition. Finally, UTEP is a wallet-breaking 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the post season. Take Western Illinois + the points. |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over North Carolina. The Tar Heels played their best game of the season on Thursday, when they crushed Marquette, 95-63. Unfortunately, they've covered just 22% of non-conference games since 1990 as an underdog (or PK) off a win by more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Bears are 43-20-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Take Baylor minus the points. |
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03-19-22 | Oregon v. Texas A&M -4.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over Oregon. After a 7-game SU/ATS win streak, the Aggies have lost their last two games ATS. I look for Texas A&M to get back into the win column (in Vegas) with a cover today vs. the visiting Ducks. Texas A&M is an awesome 62-33-1 ATS on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Take Texas A&M minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate v. Wisconsin -7.5 | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Colgate. The Raiders have won 15 straight games entering this tournament. And that win streak ranked 3rd behind South Dakota State (21 games) and Murray State (20 games). Unfortunately, long win streaks don't necessarily equate to ATS success. And South Dakota State found that out against Providence in early action, on Thursday. We played against South Dakota State yesterday, and will also fade Colgate on Friday night. Indeed, teams seeded #13 (or worse) are an awful 26.3% ATS in the NCAA Tourney when they were on a 14-game (or better) win streak. Take Wisconsin minus the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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03-18-22 | Davidson +1.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats over Michigan State. This is a great match-up between two veteran coaches (Bob McKillop, 33 years; Tom Izzo, 27 years) who have been with their programs for their entire head coaching careers. Interestingly, they've never faced each other throughout this time. This game will be played in Greenville, South Carolina, so the fans should favor the Wildcats. We'll take Davidson, as it was 2-1 ATS outside of conference vs. tourney teams, including a huge upset win at Alabama, as a 9.5-point underdog. Meanwhile, the Spartans stumbled out of conference vs. tourney teams, as they were 1-3 ATS. And Davidson's covered eight straight non-conference games, to boot. Take the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-18-22 | Iowa State +4.5 v. LSU | Top | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over LSU. In their last three games, the Cyclones have scored 41 (Texas Tech), 68 (Baylor) and 36 (Oklahoma State). This paucity of points in two of their three most recent games will keep a lot of punters off Iowa State. It shouldn't. Indeed, in the NCAA Tourney, underdogs of +3 (or more) points that averaged 55 (or less) points over their previous 3 games have covered 61% since 1999. The Cyclones were a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their non-conference schedule vs. teams that made the tourney, with big upset wins over Memphis (78-59), Iowa (73-53) and Creighton (64-58). In stark contrast, LSU played one tourney team outside of its conference, and was upset by TCU, 77-68. Take the underdog Cyclones. |
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03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Duke -18.5 | Top | 61-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Cal State Fullerton. The Blue Devils are on a 4-game ATS losing streak. But that bodes well for Mike Krzyzewski's troops tonight, as Duke's generally been strong off ATS losses, including 39-24-1 ATS their last 64 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-7-1 ATS their last 23 off 4+ ATS losses). Take Duke minus the points. |
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03-18-22 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals. The Hurricanes return home tonight after back-to-back losses on the road to Pittsburgh (4-2) and Toronto (3-2). The good news for Carolina is that it's won seven straight at home, and is 23-6 in front of its home faithful this season. Carolina will be playing this game with revenge from shutout loss at Washington earlier this month. And the Hurricanes are 7-0 this season when playing with revenge from a defeat in which it scored less than 2 goals. Washington will be playing back to back road games after walloping Columbus, 7-2, last night. And that was Washington's 3rd straight win, as it also knocked off Vancouver and the Islanders by identical 4-3 scores. But the Caps are 1-4 their last five when playing without rest, 6-12 off a road win, and 3-9 after scoring more than 3 goals in back to back games. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-18-22 | Virginia Tech v. Texas | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Virginia Tech. The Hokies upset Duke, 82-67, as a 6-point underdog to win the ACC tournament. Unfortunately, teams that pulled upsets as 6-point (or greater) underdogs in their Conference tourney championship game, have burned money in their initial game of the NCAA Tourney, and especially when not getting more than 7 points, as they've covered just 27% over the last 20 years. The ACC Conference had a down season. Out of conference, Virginia Tech played just one fellow Tourney team. That game was against Memphis, and the Tigers won SU/ATS, 69-61. Take Texas to blow out Virginia Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC -1.5 | Top | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Miami-Fla. Andy Enfield's Trojans are 26-7, but largely flew under-the-radar this season. But what's noteworthy is their record vs. other tournament teams. They played San Diego State in their non-conference schedule, and blew out the Aztecs, 58-43, as a 1.5-point underdog. Then, they played UCLA and Arizona twice. Both the Bruins and Wildcats have legitimate aspirations of winning the title, so I won't hold it against USC that it "only" won one of those four games, straight-up. But it did COVER the spread in three of those four games, so for the season, it went 4-1 ATS against other NCAA Tourney teams. The ACC conference was extremely weak this season (when compared to past years). The Hurricanes played one other NCAA tourney team in their non-conference schedule. That was a neutral court game vs. Alabama, which is seeded just slightly higher than USC (Alabama is a 6-seed; USC is a 7-seed). The Crimson Tide crushed Miami, 96-64. Of all the NCAA Tourney teams seeded #12 higher, the Hurricanes rank dead last (so, #48 of 48) in defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, with a ranking of #154 (of the 358 division 1 teams). Take USC. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue -16 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Yale. This is not your grandfather's Yale team. And, by that, I mean, it's not very good -- at least not compared to past Yale teams that made the Tournament. The Bulldogs made the NCAA Tourney is 2016 and 2019, as well. But that 2016 team upset Baylor in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney, and then lost to Duke by just seven points in the 2nd round! It covered the spread by 3.83 ppg that season, and was 12-7-2 ATS overall. Likewise, the 2019 edition almost pulled an upset of #3-seed LSU in the first round, and was 14-10 ATS. But this year's Yale team was under water ATS with just a 14-15 ATS record. And in the pre-Ivy League schedule, it was blown out by Seton Hall (80-44), Vermont (61-53), Auburn (86-64), and Saint Mary's (87-60). So, it played four other NCAA tourney teams in its non-conference schedule, and went 0-4 SU/ATS. And it was 0-5 SU/ATS this season when getting 5+ points. Take Purdue minus the points. |