The red flag is definitely waving when it comes to Appalachian State's offense. The Mountaineers were held to only three points last week by Old Dominion, which is 2-4 and has surrendered 42 or more points in three games.

Appalachian State's star quarterback Malachi Singleton suffered an ankle injury in that game. He is questionable. But even if Singleton plays, he is likely to be severely restricted. Backup Mountaineers QB Henry Hasselbeck isn't much of a passer.

Coastal Carolina's defense has been playing better than its offense. The Chanticleers are run-oriented and have lacked consistency. They rank 113th in turnovers. 

The Chanticleers beat Marshall, 27-21, last week but were the beneficiary of seven Marshall turnovers.

The Broncos' defense hasn't looked as good as it did last season. But Denver could have its best game of the season here despite not having star cornerback injured Patrick Surtain.

That's because not only is Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert off to a bad start, but he is going to be missing four of his offensive line starters, including his two best ones. The Chargers' starting offensive line looks like right guard Cole Strange and four rookies.

The Chargers were averaging fewer than 17 points a game even when they had their top offensive linemen. Now they are in real trouble.

Denver's offense has been way down, too. Third year Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has regressed. He seems almost allergic to throwing downfield.

The Chargers' defense has held up despite the struggles of their offense. They rank 11th in the metric Expected Points Added (EPA), which judges each play based on situational factors.

Denver ranks in the bottom six in a number of key offensive categories, including points, total yards and rushing yards.

Toledo is the top scoring team in the Mid-American Conference and 13th best in the nation averaging 42.4 points per game. That average goes up to 48 points a game if you go by the Rockets' last four games. Junior quarterback John Alan Richter leads the MAC in both passing yards (1,362) and passing touchdowns (13).

Buffalo doesn't have the defense to slow down Richter. The Bulls  rank 116th in scoring defense, surrendering 30.6 points a game, are 114th in pass defense and 117th in yards allowed per game at 406.4.

But while I am expecting Toledo to do the heavy lifting in getting this total Over, I would not be involved if I didn't think Buffalo could contribute.

Toledo's defense showed vulnerability giving up 24 points to Ball State last week. That was the most points the Cardinals have scored in their four games against Division I opponents.

Bulls sophomore quarterback Jason Wright is improving and he has two of the best skill position players in the MAC, running back Messiah Burch and wide receiver Chance Morrow. Burch ranks in the top three in the MAC in rushing yards and Morrow is in the top three in receiving yards.

Star QB Dante Moore is out for Oregon. Luckily for the Ducks, they have one of the best backups in the country in former Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola. The Ducks also have one of the top receiver groups in the country with Dakorien Moore,  Evan Stewart and tight end Jamari Johnson.

UCLA has not faced an offense of this caliber. The best offense the Bruins went up against is Purdue and the Boilermakers produced 38 points, 488 yards of offense and 8.3 yards per play. UCLA ranks 90th in pass defense.

The Bruins are going to contribute their share of points here, too. Only four teams average more rushing yards than UCLA, which has elite running back Wayne Knight. He is averaging 9.1 yards per carry on 49 attempts and has scored nine touchdowns. Oregon ranks even worse than UCLA in pass defense at 100th.

Both teams were idle last week so the offensive game plans could hold a few surprises.

Toss out Atlanta's season offensive statistics. They are skewed by the awful quarterback play of third stringer Cooper Rush through the first two games. I haven't seen that bad quarterback play since Nathan Peterman.

Michael Penix Jr. was ready to play in Week 3. The Falcons put up 35 points on the road against the Packers in that game. Bijan Robinson showed why he is the first or second best running back in the NFL and Drake London proved his elite status.

Now the Falcons get a bad and banged up Saints defense on the road on a fast track indoors. New Orleans has a cluster injury problem at linebacker. The Saints rank 27th in scoring defense and have only one takeaway.

The Saints have proven exciting on offense ranking in the top 10 in points and yards per game. The Saints are playing at the fastest tempo with the highest no huddle percentage in the league under Kellen Moore. Tyler Shough has emerged as an upcoming QB under Moore's tutelage.

The Falcons have the sixth fewer sacks as they are missing their two best pass rushers.

Only 15 teams throw for more passing yards than Arizona. The Wildcats have a combination of an aggressive passing approach and one of the steadiest quarterbacks in the country, Noah Fifita. He has thrown for 84 touchdowns and 10,314 yards during his collegiate career, ranking first and second, respectively, among active FBS quarterbacks in those categories. The Wildcats have passed on 61.6 percent of their offensive plays.

Cincinnati has used a balanced approach to average 40.5 points a game. Gi’Bran Payne, Cole Tabb and QB JC French IV have combined to score 12 rushing touchdowns. French has thrown for six more TDs while completing 74.5 percent of his passes.

The Bearcats also have one of the best punt returners in the nation as Caleb Smith is averaging 27.5 yards per punt return.

Purdue was averaging 39.3 points a game during its first three games until losing, 49-10, to Notre Dame last week. The Boilermakers' Ryan Browne is one of the more underrated QB's in the country completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio. He should do well again as Purdue is stepping  way down in class defensively facing Illinois.

The Illini's defense ranks 120th in pass defense. After giving up 42 points and 518 yards to Ohio State, the Illini let go their defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck.

Fortunately for Illinois it has a strong offense sparked by East Carolina quarterback transfer Katin Houser, who has completed 68.6% of his passes for 1,021 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He passed for 462 yards against Ohio State.

Purdue ranks third from the bottom in scoring defense giving up 39.5 points a game and 446 yards per game, which ranks 7th from the bottom.

Strong offenses coupled with weak defenses are why both Purdue and Illinois have each gone Over in all four of their games this season.

Add the name of Florida running back Jadan Baugh to the list of Heisman Trophy candidates. He is the second leading rusher in the country with 600 yards. He also has scored 11 touchdowns.

The Gators could be the best offensive team in the country. They are second in scoring at 53.5 points per game and 5th in most yards gained. Yes, they played Campbell. But Florida still is averaging 48 points in SEC play going against Auburn and Mississippi.

Missouri is down defensively from last season. The Tigers, though, can chip in offensively to push this total Over averaging 35.8 points a game and showing a good passing attack behind Austin Simmons.

There have been 72 and 61 combined points in the Lions' first two games, both of which sailed Over the total. I don't see things changing. So I find this a generous low total to go Over once again with Detroit.

The Lions have a high scoring offense, which is at its peak efficiency at home inside their dome stadium. Jared Goff is at his best in this setting.

The Lions have had extra time to prepare having played last Thursday. They are expected to get back their right tackle and left guard who had been injured. That is going to be a boost for Goff. The Jets' pass rush has been only mediocre despite going against two of the worst offensive lines, the Titans and Packers. Jahmyr Gibbs should be in for a big game, too, with run-stopping DL David Onyemata out for the Jets.

I find the Jets offense to be better than perceived. Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback from what they've had and he has two excellent skill position players in running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson.

The bar is set very low for Smith here as the Lions have surrendered 549 yards, six touchdowns and a field goal in their last eight defensive possessions. Their only stop during this span was a missed desperation 62-yard FG attempt by Daniel Carlson at the end of regulation last week.

Oregon State is the only team in the nation with a top-10 passer, Braden Atkinson, and a top-10 receiver, Jesse Legree. The Beavers rank second in the nation in passing yards. They are going to put up plenty of points against UTEP, which gives up 37.7 points per game and ranks 128th in pass defense efficiency.

The Miners should do their part to get this total Over. They put up 51 points against Texas Southern and 17 against Michigan.  Oregon State is 103rd in passer ratings allowed this season.

I'm expecting a bounce back effort offensively from the Cowboys after a disappointing, 28-20, road loss to the Giants this past Sunday night. Dak Prescott has too many weapons not to produce a high scoring game. facing a Commanders defense that is average at best and will be without one of their better pass rushers, Frankie Luvu.

Jayden Daniels is in line for a big game, too. The Commanders put up 22 points last week against the Eagles, who have a far superior defense than the Cowboys. Dallas just allowed Jaxson Dart to post a career-high 134.2 passer rating.

Not only is Dallas' defense not very good, but it will be missing linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and safety Malik Hooker. The worst part of the Cowboys defense are their cornerbacks. Veteran Washington wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs can exploit that major weakness.

Bottom line: This is going to be a shootout. 

I don't see Arkansas State having much success moving the ball against a very strong TCU defensive front. The Red Wolves also have drastically slowed down their tempo. Only four teams are playing at a slower pace than the Red Wolves.

The Horned Frogs have surrendered just two touchdowns in two games.

Despite a 63-7 win against Grambling, the jury remains out on TCU quarterback Jaden Craig and a wide receiving group that has dropped too many passes. The Horned Frogs were held to only 10 points by North Carolina in their opening game. 

First off, Notre Dame has an elite defense. The Fighting Irish held opponents to fewer than 18 points a game last season and should be even better this season with nine starters back.

Michigan State does not have an explosive offense. The Spartans are about ball control. None of their skill position players rank among the upper tier in the Big Ten.

The Spartans are respectable on defense. Only 22 teams have given up fewer yards per game than the Spartans.

Yes this is a step-up game for Michigan State after victories against MAC foes Eastern Michigan and Toledo. But Notre Dame's offense is overrated. Their running backs are way down from last season and aside from Jordan Faison their receivers haven't been impressive.

The Fighting Irish put up 52 points against Rice. The Owls, though, gift wrapped some of those points with four fumbles, including one that was returned for a Notre Dame touchdown.

Notre Dame scored 41 points against Wisconsin, yet managed only 350 total yards.

There is going to be a weather element, too, that favors the Under. The forecast is for heavy rain and wind up to 10 mph. 

Maybe it was because they didn't play their starters during preseason. But the high-powered Lions offense was flat opening week. It took an overtime, yet Detroit still reached 31 points against the Saints and the game still went Over.

We have a higher total this week for Detroit against Buffalo, but it is not high enough given the circumstances and the quality of the two offenses and the downgrading of the two defenses.

I'm expecting the Lions' offense to be a lot sharper and for Jameson Williams not to drop nearly as many passes. The Bills' defense struggled against a mediocre Texans offense in Week 1 surrendering 31 points and 26 first downs.

The Bills' defense is taking a step back this season with Sean McDermott gone. Jim Leonhard, Buffalo's new defensive coordinator, has switched to a 3-4 scheme. It is going to take time for the Bills to pick up this new system.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen and his new play toy, DJ Moore, should have little resistance putting up a lot of points against a battered Lions secondary. Already missing starting safeties Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, the Lions now also could be without cornerback DJ Reed because of a foot injury.

It is going to be extra rough for the Lions defense. They were on the field for 90 plays against the Saints and now are playing on short rest. 

Patrick Mahomes makes his return nine months after suffering a torn ACL. Mahomes is going to face arguably the best defense in the NFL - the Broncos.  

Denver surrendered the third fewest points, the second fewest yards and were No. 1 in sacks by a wide margin with 68 last season. Doubtful Mahomes has his former elusiveness. He also is down a key pass blocker with undrafted free agent rookie Khalil Benson starting for Josh Simmons.

Since Vance Joseph returned as Denver's defensive coordinator in 2023, the Broncos have held the Chiefs to an average of 15.8 points in four games sacked Mahomes 12 times and held him to an 81.6 passer rating.

Kansas City gave up the sixth fewest points last season. The Chiefs' defense will be fresh. The Broncos have Davis Webb, their offensive coordinator, calling plays instead of Sean Payton. It is hard to believe that will be an upgrade.

It would not surprise me in the least if the Lions led the NFL in scoring. Detroit took a step back offensively last season but should be much better this season with the change of offensive coordinators from John Morton to Drew Petzing, who did wonders with the Cardinals offense last season.

Detroit's offensive line looks improved and the skill position talent is elite. Jahmyr Gibbs is the best all-purpose running back in the league.

The Saints don't have nearly the defense to stop it.

Detroit has problems in its secondary due to injuries and releasing troubled cornerback Terrion Arnold.

The Saints play fast under Kellen Moore. QB Tyler Shough proved himself last season. Travis Etienne is an upgrade over injured and over the hill Alvin Kamara. The Saints also have an  underrated offensive line.

The bar is not set high here for the Saints to produce their share of points in getting this total Over. Playing indoors on a fast track is another plus.

This is one of the lower totals on the NFL Week 1 regular season card. The Falcons and Steelers have enough offense to go Over.

Pittsburgh should be better offensively, but weaker defensively with the coaching change of Mike McCarthy replacing Mike Tomlin. McCarthy knows how to get the best out of Aaron Rodgers. Adding Michael Pittman to go with DK Metcalf upgrades Rodgers' wide receiving targets.

Atlanta had the fewest sacks two seasons ago. The Falcons could revert to that again this year without injured Jalon Walker and suspended James Pearce Jr. Atlanta also lost its best linebacker with Kaden Elliss signing with the Saints. I can see the savvy Rogers moving the ball against this weak defense.

Backup QB Cooper Rush is experienced and has major skill position talent around him with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. I see a decline in the Steelers' defense without Tomlin. 

There is not a more cocky coach in the NFL than the Bears' Ben Johnson. He is on record as saying he wants his Bears to be the highest scoring team in NFL history.

I don't know if the Bears will reach Johnson's lofty expectation, but I do anticipate them to be involved in a lot of high scoring shootouts. This should be one of them.

Johnson is an offensive mastermind. He has much to work with in quarterback Caleb Williams and Williams has much to work with in the outstanding skill position talent surrounding him. The Bears are going to get their points here.

But so is Carolina.

The Bears already have been hit by key injuries in their defensive backfield. Their defense isn't very good to begin with propped up last season by an unsustainable plus-22 turnover margin, best in the NFL.

The Panthers are capable of producing a big point total when playing at home. They scored 30 or more points three times at home last season.

These two teams met last season and Navy won, 42-32. There were a combined 74 points and 947 total yards. So I am not scared off by this total.

Florida Atlantic has trouble stopping the run. That is a major problem when playing Navy. The Midshipmen just rushed for 506 yards in beating Towson, 42-15.

The Owls play at one of the fastest tempos in the country. Caden Veltkamp is a capable quarterback for the Owls. Florida Atlantic is a passing team and Navy has a weak secondary. This matchup pits offensive strength against defensive weakness.

First off, I don't see Florida A&M even scoring in this game. Not against Miami's elite defense and not with a backup quarterback. The Rattlers, an FCS program from the Southwestern Athletic Conference, are averaging 16.5 points a game playing against Albany State and South Carolina State.

The Rattlers lost their starting quarterback, Isaiah Knowles, for the rest of the season after he suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand during the second half of last week's game against South Carolina State. There is a steep drop off from Knowles to backup Dustin Fletcher.

 Stanford, an ACC team, could only manage 6 points against Miami last week.

The key to making this Under work is trying to figure out how many points Miami is going to score.

The Hurricanes and their quarterback, Darian Mensah, were super sharp in putting up 45 points against the Cardinal to open the season.

But how motivated will the Hurricanes be? This is a sandwich spot for Miami between ACC opponents with Wake Forest on deck. Miami isn't going to risk Mensah, Malachi Toney and its other star offensive players by playing them for too long in this lopsided matchup.

Miami also is likely to run the ball a lot in the second half to eat clock. Florida A&M's best player could be its punter, Bobby Engstler. He is averaging 43.7 yards per punt and already has put four punts inside the 20-yard line.

Engstler should be a huge plus for the Under.

LSU's offense is getting a lot of attention thanks to the hiring of Lane Kiffin. But I could see the Tigers starting slow here. Clemson has a solid defense and LSU has a new offense.

LSU QB Sam Leavitt missed spring camp recovering from a foot injury. He has not had much of a chance to get in sync with LSU's many new wide receivers. Note, too, LSU's offensive line has only one returning starter.

Clemson also is breaking in a new starting QB with Christopher Vizzina replacing the departed Cade Klubnik. Clemson was far from being elite offensively last season ranking 72nd in points and 105th in rushing.

The Tigers are on the road facing an LSU defense that is ranked as the best in the SEC by ESPN's ratings and top-three in the nation. Tough venue, tough defense for Vizzina. 

When you think of high scoring offenses in the Big Ten the name Rutgers doesn't immediately come to mind. But the Scarlet Knights averaged 46.3 points a game in their three non-conference games last season playing Ohio, Miami of Ohio and Norfolk State. Those teams weren't any good and neither is UMass, which has one of the worst defenses in the country.

Rutgers actually has two of the best skill position players in the nation in running back Antwan Raymond and wide receiver KJ Duff. They can prop up QB Dylan Lonergan and make him look good against such an atrocious defensive foe.

UMass should contribute to this total going Over. The bar is not set high here. Rutgers finished 131st out of 136 FBS teams in yards allowed. last year. The Minutemen actually have some decent skill position players in QB Pop Watson, deep threat Jacquon Gibson and athletic tight end Matt Oanei.

International games can cause sluggish offenses. Look for that to be the case here between North Carolina and TCU in Dublin, Ireland. There is a 60% chance of rain, too, leading up to the game. This is likely to cause slippage as the game is being played on a grass field.

Both North Carolina and TCU have excellent defensive lines and each team is breaking in a new quarterback - Billy Edwards for the Tar Heels and Jaden Craig for TCU.

Edwards has had opportunities at Big Ten schools, but has never impressed. Craig lacks Big Four experience having played at Harvard.

Tar Heels coach Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind and he's had plenty of time to prepare. The Tar Heels had a top 40 defense last year and it looks better this season. 

Both New Orleans and Atlanta are on winning streaks. The offenses have looked good.

Saints QB Tyler Shough has steadily improved. He has thrown for 913 yards passing, four touchdowns and no interceptions during his last three games.

Kirk Cousins has shown he still has some life left helping Atlanta win three straight games. He has 696 passing yards while completing 65 percent of his passes while throwing for six touchdowns during these three games. Just as important, he has been intercepted only once and taken just two sacks during this span.

Cousins has the skill position studs to make him look good.

The Falcons scored 24 points in the first meeting between these two teams. The Saints only scored 10 points. But they should have scored a lot more.

New Orleans failed to score touchdowns on any of its three red zone possessions and on two of those series, the Saints didn’t score at all, missing a field goal and turning the ball over on downs at the 1-yard line. The Saints have improved their red zone production since then.

Don't be fooled by Oregon putting up 51 points against James Madison in its first round playoff game. The Ducks do not fare well when going against elite defenses. They averaged a combined 18.3 points in regulation against Indiana, Iowa and Penn State.

Texas Tech bought maybe the best defense in the country. The Red Raiders ranked in the top three in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. They have surrendered less than 11 points per game.

The Red Raiders' offense is good, but not nearly as consistent as their defense. Oregon's defense held opponents to an average of 16.3 points per game and ranked sixth in fewest yards and passing yards.

These defenses are not given enough respect with this high of a point total. 

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring at 30.5 points a game. They are second in passing yards and have committed the second fewest turnovers. The Falcons' defense is not going to be able to stop Matthew Stafford and his well balanced offense.

The key to getting this total Over is if the Falcons can stay with the Rams in putting points up.

I believe they can. Atlanta is averaging 27.5 points in its last two games. Those were road games against the Cardinals and Buccaneers. The Rams are significantly better defensively than those two teams. However, the Rams have shown some slippage defensively giving up 31 or more points in three of their last four games.

Kirk Cousins is in better command of Atlanta's offense. He has formed an excellent connection with tight end Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson  and Drake London are elite players. So Cousins has the weapons to trade points with the Rams. 

Luckily this is a day game because bad weather is forecast for the evening in Cincinnati. Without a weather concern, these two defenses are powerless to stop the other team's passing attacks.

Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett is averaging 41.6 passes per game during his 10 games as a starter this season. Thrust into a starting role because of Kyler Murray's injury, the ancient Brissett is having a career year. He has thrown for more yards and had more pass completions than any other quarterback since Week 6.

No NFL defense has worse statistics than the Bengals. Cincinnati is 29th in pass defense - and that is its strength! The Bengals surrender the most points, total yards and rushing yards.

Joe Burrow is a top five quarterback. Ja'Marr Chase is the best wide receiver in the AFC if not all of football. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during their last seven games.

This should be an extremely loose, high volume passing game with both teams out of playoff contention.

Improved quarterbacking has led to an increase in scoring with both of these bottom feeders. This leads to a sneaky Over here.

The Titans are averaging 27 points per game in their last three games. Cam Ward is 129-of-202 passing (64%) for 1,106 yards (6.04 YPA), an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and one rushing score across six starts since Tennessee’s Week 10 bye.

Tony Pollard has had his three best games of the season during the last three weeks, rushing for 367 yards while averaging 6.1 a carry  during this span. The Saints rank 22nd in run defense.

Tennessee is live to score on special teams because of Chimere Dike, who leads the NFL with 2,269 all-purpose yards and has brought two punts back for touchdowns.

The Saints are averaging 24.3 points a game in their last three games. QB Tyler Shough has shown steady improvement.

The Titans rate 26th defensively allowing  26.9 points a game. They are 31st in takeaway with only six. 

FIU has dangerous weapons in Kejon Owens, who finished 10th in the nation in rushing with 1,298 yards, and Alex Perry, who had 816 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.

The Panthers' attack really picked up down the homestretch averaging 43.2 points in their last four games. 

Reports of J.J. McCarthy's demise have been exaggerated. Justin Jefferson may disagree, but McCarthy has been solid the last two games.

McCarthy is similar to Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart in that he is dangerous when using his legs. The Giants have allowed the most quarterback rushing yards.

McCarthy has excellent weapons and is going against a weak Giants defense that gives up the NFL’s ninth-highest passer rating, allows 28.3 points a game and ranks 30th in yards allowed.

Dart should put up his share of points as the Vikings are missing several of their versatile defenders with Josh Metellus and Jonathan Greenard both out. Nose tackle Javon Hargrave also isn't likely to play because of injury.

Tampa Bay's offense should be back in gear with Baker Mayfield having his strong supporting cast at full strength. The Bucs go three deep at running back and have four quality wide receivers.

Carolina should put up its share of points against a Tampa Bay defense surrendering more than 25 points a game and ranking 30th in pass defense.

Bryce Young catches a break in that the Bucs just lost their No. 2 CB Zyon McCollum for the year with a hip injury sustained last week.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Mike McDaniel lynching. The Dolphins got good on defense.

Miami has not permitted more than 17 points during five of its last six games. The Dolphins are giving up only 13.2 points per game in their last four games. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the NFL in tackles, former Steelers star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is playing at a high level again as is cornerback Rasul Douglas.

The Dolphins have had the top red zone defense during their last four games.

Look for the Steelers defense to have a strong performance, too. The Dolphins have become much more run-oriented with Tyreek Hill out for the season. Their passing attack is short and conservative without deep threat Hill. Tua Tagovailoa is just a game manager these days, no longer trustworthy.

Miami's offense is centered around De’Von Achane and misdirection runs, not attacking downfield through the air.

The forecast is for temperatures to be in the mid-teens with possible snow. Tagovailoa has been at his worst in cold weather, throwing  for one touchdown and 12 interceptions in games with temperatures below 40 degrees.

The Dolphins will be heavily relying upon Achane. The Steelers will be keying on him. Pittsburgh won't have its team sacks leader, T.J. Watt. But the pass defense bar is set low facing Tagovailoa, who has severely regressed this season. 

A December game in Green Bay always means a first look at the weather. It is going to be cold, but sunny. So no problems there. 

The good news for the Packers is Jayden Reed is set to play for the first time since Week 2. This gives Jordan Love a rich assortment of wide receivers with Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and potentially Matthew Golden.

Chicago's secondary has gotten healthy. However, the Bears are still not at full strength at linebacker.

The bad news for Green Bay is that stud defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt is out for the season after suffering a broken ankle on Thanksgiving. Next to Micah Parsons, Wyatt was the most valuable player on the Packers defense because of his run-stuffing ability.

Ben Johnson has done a masterful job turning the Bears' offense into a power attack. Chicago's offensive linemen are better run blockers than pass blockers and D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are an effective outside/inside running back combo. They can put the Bears in favorable second and third down situations making things easier for Caleb Williams to pick his spots. 

Slowly but surely the Buccaneers are getting back to full strength on offense. Mike Evans won't be ready this week, but Tampa Bay's top running back Bucky Irving returned last week and looked good. Chris Godwin is getting closer to being his reliable self having returned several weeks ago.

All of this is added firepower for Baker Mayfield, who entered this week tied for seventh in touchdown passes with 19 and ranked 11th in passer ratings.

This is the lowest total on a Tampa Bay game this season. It is set too low because the Saints should be able to contribute their share of the scoring.

Rookie Tyler Shough is averaging 45 passes in the last two games. This will be his fifth NFL start. He has shown improvement. Tampa Bay gives up the sixth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards.

Devaughn Vele had a breakout game against the Dolphins last week catching eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. Shough also has reliable targets in Chris Olave and underrated tight end Juwan Johnson.

The bar is set low with this total. 

This is a buy-low spot on these offenses playing on a fast track with a low total.

The Chargers were idle last week following their worst offensive game of the season. Before losing to the Jaguars, 35-6, the Chargers had averaged 28.4 points in their last five games. Justin Herbert is facing a Raiders defense that permits an average of 25.2 points per game.

Herbert is playing behind a makeshift offensive line, but Jim Harbaugh has had two weeks to figure out how to get Herbert more time to throw whether it's bootlegs or quick passes.

I'm looking for the same from the Raiders, who got rid of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly this past week. Kelly and the Raiders were not a good fit. Look for new offensive coordinator Greg Olson to do a better job of getting Ashton Jeanty in space.

Geno Smith is not as bad as he has looked this season. Having a healthy Brock Bowers and utilizing Jeanty more effectively will help.

There are three main factors why I like the Under here: Western Michigan's strong defense, Eastern Michigan's inept offense and the Broncos controlling clock with their heavy run attack.

Western Michigan has averaged fewer than 12 passes per game during its last two games. The Broncos certainly are going to stay heavy run-oriented since the Eagles give up the most yards on the ground per game in the country. Despite that Eastern Michigan has been stingy giving up points in its last two games holding Ball State to nine points and Bowling Green to 21 points.

The Broncos give up the 13th fewest yards in the country and rank 21st in scoring defense yielding only 20.3 points per game.

The weather is another plus for the Under. The forecast is for rain during the day. It should stop by the evening, but the wind will be blowing at 10-to-15 mph.

This total is so low it reminds me of a preseason game rather than a Week 12 matchup. The Titans are a problem when it comes to Overs. But Seattle can do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to getting this total Over.

There's a huge defensive class difference for the Seahawks going from the Rams to the Titans. Sam Darnold plays great against weak competition. He has the NFL's receiving leader, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kenneth Walker III is due for a breakout performance, too.

There is room for optimism the Titans will produce their share of points to get this total Over. Cam Ward is improving. He has been sacked a league-most 41 times. However, the Seahawks failed to sack Matthew Stafford last week. Ward is much more mobile.

I'm not a big fan of Titans' interim coach, Mike McCoy. But he's an upgrade on overmatched fired coach, Brian Callahan. The Titans had the worst play selection in the league when Callahan was calling plays.

Given today's rules and how they are skewed for the offense, this is a low bar to clear.

It is back to the pumpkin patch for Daniel Jones facing the Chiefs' fourth-ranked defense on the road in a tough outdoor venue. Only three teams are giving up fewer than the 18.1 points per game the Chiefs allow.

Kansas City relies more on its defense because its offense, while good, has not been great. Patrick Mahomes has been missing passes he normally connects and he won't have his top running back, injured Isiah Pacheco.

Think field goals, not touchdowns, in this matchup and that's not enough to clear a total this high. 

I find this total too low given all the skill position weapons and the offensive acumen of the head coaches.

I get that J.J. McCarthy is looking like a major disappointment. But he has a very strong support system with a deep set of receivers and two good running backs, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Green Bay has given up an average of 138.7 yards rushing during its past three games. Minnesota should be able to put McCarthy in situations where he can succeed.

Center Ryan Kelly is expected to return here for the Vikings. He had missed the past six games. That would be a big boost to their offensive line. The Packers are likely to be without their leading tackler, injured linebacker Quay Walker.

Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur have had a couple weeks now to adjust to life without star tight end Tucker Kraft. I expect the Packers to throw more than usual given that Josh Jacobs may not play because of a knee injury. Love can put up fantastic numbers because the Packers are deep at receiver, too, if he throws more.

No weather problems either. The forecast is for 50-degree weather with no rain and very little wind.

The total has come down in this matchup and for good reason. Air Force lost its emerging star quarterback, Liam Szarka, to an arm injury in the second quarter of its 26-16 loss to Connecticut last Saturday. Not only was Szarka an outstanding runner, but he was that rare Air Force quarterback who posed a threat through the air.

The Falcons will be going back to being heavily run-oriented now with converted fullback Kemper Hodges behind center. New Mexico's defensive strength is its 17th-ranked run defense.

The Lobos could only manage 20 points against Colorado State last week in a 20-17 victory as a 16-point home favorite. Air Force only has given up an average of 20.7 points during its last four games.

I like that the Eagles only scored 10 points against the Packers in last Monday's game and that three-time Pro Bowl receiver is justifiably complaining that he was targeted just three times against Green Bay.

I also like super aggressive Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling for the Lions. It frees up explosive Jameson Williams.

I see these as all pluses for the Over.

There are offensive studs all over each team and the rules are skewed in their favor. Even a lucky bungler such as Nick Sirianni has to grasp that he has to turn his weapons loose after last Monday's near debacle.

The weather is going to cooperate. That's a huge plus for Jared Goff, who has my road confidence now having set an NFL record by completing 70% or more of his passes in eight straight away games.

There's no better offensive balanced team than the Lions, who are the only team in NFL history with at least 21 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing scores and six or fewer turnovers through the first nine games of a season. 

I will oblige and take the Under.

My three main factors are weather, the Bengals' vulnerable offensive line and the Steelers' toothless attack.

The forecast is for heavy wind in the 15-to-30 mph range. That kind of wind can impact throws and kicks.

Pittsburgh's defensive line still packs a punch. The Steelers rank second in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage and ninth in sacks per pass attempt.

The matchup features the least two mobile starting quarterbacks in the league, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals’ OL ranks 29th in pass-block win rate and 29th in pressure percentage given up. Flacco is going to be under duress here.

Cincinnati's defense is bad. However, the Bengals just saw the Steelers three weeks ago and were idle last week giving them two weeks of game film preparation. Certainly the bar is not high here for the Bengals' defense.

Rogers is nothing more than a glorified game manager in his dotage. He still hasn't reached 250 passing yards.  DK Metcalf is a terrible fit for Pittsburgh's offense. He's a deep threat wasted. Metcalf only has averaged 36.5 receiving yard average in Pittsburgh’s last four games.

So I'm taking the plunge and going Under.

Bad weather, lackluster offenses, solid defenses and slow tempo all factor in making this an Under play. 

Michigan surrenders the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 17.2. Northwestern hasn't broken the 22-point barrier in its last four games. The Wildcats rank 111th in scoring at 21.9. 

The Wildcats do give up fewer than 20 points per game and the Wolverines have a well below average passing attack. 

Neither team is explosive and there is going to be heavy wind in Chicago for this matchup with winds in the 15-to-30 mph range.

The bar is not set high for Eastern Michigan's defense here. Ball State ranks in the bottom-10 in many major offensive categories. The Cardinals are averaging 16.4 points a game. 

Ball State's defense is better than its offense. The Cardinals have surrendered 20.6 points a game during their last three games. 

Eastern Michigan ranks 90th in scoring and 80th in total yards. 

Making it worse for the offenses is there is a weather factor. The forecast is for heavy wind.

Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua get all the attention for the Rams. It's understandable. They are great players. But lost in all this adulation is a Rams defense that is holding foes to 15.9 points per game, which is second-best in the NFL.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Saints, Jaguars and Ravens - to a combined 20 points.

Now LA gets the 49ers in a revenge spot where San Francisco has to go with backup quarterback Mac Jones again.  Jones hasn’t thrown for more than 235 yards since Week 6. He didn’t even attempt a single downfield pass in last Sunday’s win against the Giants and their vulnerable secondary. San Francisco remains minus its two best wide receivers, Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.

The 49ers do have the offensive personnel to effectively play ball control with a conservative game plan to keep the ball out of Stafford's hands.

San Francisco is banged-up defensively. However, the 49ers have good defensive depth and are extremely well coached. They are quite familiar with Stafford.

Note, too, this game is being played at Levi's Stadium, which is a grass field. This is not what the Rams are used to.

Rarely in its school history has Wisconsin had a good quarterback. The Badgers are not getting good quarterback play again this season, which is putting it kindly. But the Badgers also have lost their traditional feared running game under Luke Fickell.

Wisconsin's offensive stats are mind-boggling bad: Last in the nation in yards per game and third-from-the bottom in points per game at 12.5. The Badgers are averaging fewer than seven points a game if you go by their last four games.

The Badgers do rank 25th in run defense.

Washington is averaging 15.5 points in its two Big Ten road games playing Michigan and Maryland.

Both teams play at a slow tempo. There could be some weather issues, too. The forecast is for 50% possibility of rain and winds in the 10-to-15 mph range.

An improved offensive line, Sam Darnold proving he is for real and Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a superstar have turned Seattle into a very strong offensive team. The Seahawks are sixth in scoring at 27.6 points a game, third in yards per play and eighth in passing yards. Smith-Njigba is on pace for 1,989 receiving yards. The NFL record is 1,964 by Calvin Johnson in 2012.

Washington's defense isn't strong enough to slow down the Seahawks.

If you discount holding the Chargers to 10 points, the Commanders are giving up an average of 30.3 points a game in their last six games.

Seattle could throw a few new wrinkles at Washington, too, coming off its bye week.

The Commanders are not going to be held down with a fresh Jayden Daniels, who has recovered from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the last game. Daniel's is the biggest dual threat in the NFC. He has accounted for nine touchdowns and only one interception in five games this season.

Daniels' alone elevates Washington's offense into respectability, if not more.

The Broncos have the most overrated defense in the NFL. It is good, but not the dominant unit some perceive. The Giants behind rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart put up 32 points against the Broncos. The Colts scored 29 points and produced 473 yards against Denver.

And that came with last year's Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Patrick Surtain in the lineup. Surtain is out now with a pectoral injury.

Houston has gotten healthy at wide receiver with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk back. The Texans have excellent wide receiving depth and have been protecting C.J. Stroud well. Stroud has only been sacked seven times during the past four games. Houston is averaging 28.7 points during its last four games.

Denver coach Sean Payton has done a great job developing Bo Nix. The Broncos rank in the top-10 in both points and yards per game. 

The Commanders are going to have to play well offensively because they aren't going to be able to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is back performing at his normal MVP level. The Chiefs' offense is really starting to click the past four games averaging 31.5 pts. Kansas City's offense is only going to get better, too, as emerging star wide receiver Rasheed Rice gets fully indoctrinated after returning from suspension last week.  

The Chiefs piled up 31 points through their first five drives against Raiders last week before putting the brakes on with the game already out of hand at that point.

Washington ranks 26th in total defense and pass defense. The Commanders have surrendered 24 or more points in five of their last six games and they just placed their top pass rusher, Dorance Armstrong, on injured reserve because of a knee injury. Armstrong leads the Commanders in sacks and pressures.

The Commanders have come up with only two takeaways. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just twice, lowest in the NFL. So don't look for the Chiefs to have a turnover-filled game.

Even without Jaden Daniels, the Commanders have enough weapons around veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota with their two best wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, both set to return after being out with injuries. Mariota has the necessary mobility and experience to be able to keep Washington in the game against a strong defense in a tough road environment.

This is an entertaining rivalry where plenty of points are scored. That certainly was the case last season when the two teams averaged a combined 62 points during their two meetings.

Tampa Bay has wide receiver injuries, but the Buccaneers' offense schemes well and Baker Mayfield has greatly benefited from it becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

During their last five games, the Buccaneers have scored 38 points against Seattle on the road, 30 points against the 49ers, 29 points against the Jets and 25 points against the Eagles. All of those teams have better defenses than New Orleans. The Saints rank 27th defensively giving up 26.6 points a game.

The Saints should do their part in contributing to this total going Over. Big-play wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed can burn a Tampa Bay secondary that has permitted the NFL's eighth-highest completion rate and sixth-most yards per pass attempt. Spencer Rattler had thrown only one interception all season until throwing three against the Bears in bad weather last Sunday.

The setting is completely different now for the Saints back home in their temperature-controlled dome. 

Wisconsin's Billy Edwards Jr. was a lower-tier Big Ten quarterback. But without the injured Edwards, Wisconsin's offense has totally fallen apart. The Badgers are averaging a puny 6.8 points per game during their last five games.

I don't see the Badgers doing anything against an athletic Oregon defense that gives up the seventh-fewest points and sixth-fewest yards per game.

The Badgers are more respectable defensively ranking 18th against the run and 47th in total defense.

There also is a weather factor here with the forecast calling for an 80 percent chance of rain and winds in the 10-20 mph range.

The Saints have played outdoors twice this season. They scored 13 points at Seattle and 19 points at Buffalo in those games. Now New Orleans is playing at another tough outdoor venue where weather is a factor with possible rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

I don't trust, or like, Spencer Rattler even in a temperature controlled climate. I expect the Saints to run the ball a lot even with Alvin Kamara limited by an ankle injury.

Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is well acquainted with the Saints and their limitations having been New Orleans' former head coach.

The Saints rank a respectable 18th in total defense. Chicago's offense has improved under new coach Ben Johnson, but Caleb Williams still doesn't get enough clean pockets. 

First of all the weather could factor. There is a 50 percent chance of rain and wind up to 20 mph.

The Rams defense is respectable, ranking 10th in fewest yards allowed and 13th in scoring defense. They are facing a backup quarterback, Cooper Rush, who is far more game manager than gunslinger. LA has several pass rushers who can bother Rush. Baltimore's offense goes from dynamic to dull with Rush replacing injured Lamar Jackson.

I see the Ravens running Derrick Henry a lot here, which is going to eat clock.

The Ravens have horrible defensive numbers. However, they have had a ton of injuries on that side of the ball. This week they get two key defenders back, safety Kyle Hamilton and cornerback Marlon Humphrey. 

Both of these offenses have been extremely disappointing.

South Carolina is averaging fewer than 25 points a game. That average would be even worse, but the Gamecocks have come up with some big defensive/ special teams plays to set up their offense. That's not something that can be counted on to continue.

South Carolina's defense, though, ranks 34th surrendering fewer than 19 points per game.

LSU's defense has played much better than its offense. The Tigers rank 7th defensively permitting just 12.2 points per game. The Tigers are 119th in rushing and their passing attack has not met preseason expectations.

The Tigers have played four Division One opponents. The combined point total in those games is 27 points against Clemson, 30 points versus Louisiana Tech, 30 points against Florida and 43 points against Mississippi. 

Cooper Rush is a decent backup quarterback and he is surrounded by excellent weapons. One of these is  Derrick Henry. The Texans have to respect Henry so they aren't going to be able to tee off on Rush.

Houston's disappointing offense finally showed some life last week putting up 26 points against the Titans. Yes, the Titans are hapless. Statistically, though, it is Baltimore that has the worst defense in the NFL.

The Ravens give up 33.3 pts a game, most in the NFL. They also allow the second most yards per game. And now their defense is nearly decimated!

Among seven starters down for the Ravens are defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and linebacker Roquan Smith, two of the best players in the league at their respective positions. The Texans' offensive line has had four games now to get into sync. Rookie Woody Marks is showing signs of becoming Houston's best running back. Certainly he's a threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

I get that both Tennessee and Houston have looked bad offensively - very bad. But such a low total wouldn't even hold up in preseason.

Positive regression is due. I see it occurring here.

The Texans run defense is mediocre. Tony Pollard can keep the chains moving. This would put Cam Ward in favorable passing situations, something he rarely has been in because of the Titans' horrendous play calling from their overmatched head coach, Brian Callahan.

Callahan made the obvious decision to turn over the play-calling. This will be the first game quarterback coach Bo Hardegree calls the plays for the Titans. He can't help but be a major improvement on Callahan.

I will never forget Callahan's brutal play-calling in a game last year when the Titans had first and goal from the one-yard line. I was fully expecting Pollard to get a couple of carries. Nope. Callahan called four straight passes - and this was with Will Levis as his quarterback. Needless to say, the Titans didn't score.

CJ Stroud is off to a slow start, plagued by offensive line woes. This is a get-right game at home for him against a defense giving up 31.3 points a game. Nico Collins should feast here. 

Points will not be hard to come by here. Florida State ranks first in the nation in scoring and yards. True the Seminoles have played two cupcakes, but they also put up 31 points against Alabama.

Virginia's defense is a huge step down from Alabama's. The Cavaliers rank 74th in pass defense and North Carolina State ran for more than 200 yards against them.  

Dual-threat quarterback Tommy Castellanos is the centerpiece of a well-balanced Florida State attack.

Virginia is no slouch offensively either ranking fifth in yards and 11th in scoring. The Cavaliers and USC are the only two FBS teams with at least 1,000 yards rushing and more than 1,200 yards passing. Well seasoned Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has three receivers  who already have 1,000 career yards.

The Cavaliers' offensive line has protected Morris well, too, as he has been sacked only once in four games.

Two good quarterbacks. Two bad defenses. A reasonable total. Add it together and it puts me on the Over. 

NC State has the ACC's leading rusher, Hollywood Smothers, to go with quarterback CJ Bailey. The Wolfpack are averaging 31 points a game. 

Duke is giving up 32 points a game and has trouble stopping the run and pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 68% of their throws against the Blue Devils. 

Darian Mensah gives Duke a very good quarterback, though. NC State ranks 131st in pass defense. The Blue Devils play at a fast pace, which is another plus for the Over.

Troy's starting quarterback, Goose Crowder, suffered a shoulder injury for the second consecutive season. Crowder is a mediocre quarterback, but he's the best that Troy has.

The Trojans are going to need to effectively run the ball and that's going to be tough to do against a Buffalo defense that ranks 37th in the country in run defense. The Bulls are giving up fewer than 20 points per game.

Troy has faced far more talented offenses going against Clemson and Memphis. Neither of whom were able to score more than 28 points against the Trojans.

Both teams are ground-oriented, which is going to run clock. That's good for the under.

All the pieces are there for Jacksonville to have a dynamite offense now that offensive guru Liam Coen is running things. I'm looking for the Jaguars to have a productive game against a weak Bengals defense.

The Bengals usually start slow. Sure enough they had a bad game against the Browns opening week and probably should have lost. Now Cincinnati is stepping down in defensive class going from Cleveland to Jacksonville.

Joe Burrow looked great in training camp. He is going to light up a vulnerable Jaguars defense. 

Texas State's GJ Kinne and Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham are among the five youngest coaches in the country. They also are among the sharpest offensive minds.

The Bobcats have scored 95 points in two games this season. They have been balanced on offense averaging 280 yards per game on the ground and 250 through the air. However, their defense is extremely weak having allowed a combined 63 points to Eastern Michigan and UT-San Antonio. The Bobcats are giving up an average of 427.5 yards per game.

The Sun Devils have the offense to take advantage. I expect quarterback Sam Leavitt to be far sharper than he was against Mississippi State last week. Not only is Leavitt one of the best QBs in the country, but he has a top-three wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson. ASU is going from playing an SEC opponent to a Sun Belt Conference foe.

No one is calling Geno Smith an elite quarterback. But given two tremendous weapons in Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, Smith is going to produce points for the Raiders especially in an up-tempo offense coordinated by Chip Kelly.

Maxx Crosby is a handful. Aside from him, though, the Raiders defense is below par.

This matchup should be the first of many shootouts the Raiders are going to go through this season.

Drake Maye is a star on the rise for the Patriots. He has more weapons, too, this season with the additions of Stefon Diggs in free agency and rookie TreVeyon Henderson.  

Josh McDaniels is best served as an offensive coordinator. He's back with the Patriots in that capacity and knows the Raiders extremely well having been their former head coach. So look for the Patriots to have a good offensive game plan. The bar is set not very high given the low quality of the Raiders defense.

Navy has averaged 36 points per game the past two seasons playing UAB. The Midshipmen won those games easily. Navy is going to get its points again this season, but the Blazers also have enough firepower to contribute their share in getting this total Over.

UAB opened its season with a 52-42 win against Alabama State, piling up more than 500 yards of total offense. Jevon Jackson, a transfer from UTEP, looked great rushing for 166 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. Coached by former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer, Blazers QB Jalen Kitna should be one of the better quarterbacks in the American Conference. He had a good day, too, against Alabama State.

Navy's Blake Horvath is the best quarterback in the conference and Eli Heidenreich could be the best combination of RB/WR in the league.

The Midshipmen opened their season in excellent offensive form with a 52-7 win against VMI while gaining 556 yards.

I'm expecting more than 60 points to be scored here so I'm going Over.

The Cowboys defense wasn't good to begin with and now they no longer have their best defensive player, Micah Parsons. Newly acquired nose tackle Kenny Clark is solid, but he is on the downside of his career. He's not going to turn around a Dallas run defense that ranked in the bottom-five in rushing yards per carry and rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley is going to have a big game and if the Cowboys try to load the box on him, Jalen Hurts is going to hurt them through the air.

The Eagles averaged 37.5 points against Dallas last year.

Fortunately for the Cowboys they have an offense that can trade points against any opponent with a healthy Dak Prescott, an above average offensive line and George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to give Dallas one of the strongest receiving tandems in the league. 

These are the two best defenses in the country with the numbers to prove it.

Ohio State gave up the fewest points, total yards, yards per play and also was No. 1 in pass defense. Oregon was the only team to score more than 17 points on the Buckeyes. Ohio State has permitted an average of only 13 points during its last nine games, while going against Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Penn State during this span. 

Notre Dame's offensive line has been banged-up. The Buckeyes have two potential first-round choices in their defensive line with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Irish have the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation. They rank 12th in pass defense and have 19 takeaways, which was the fifth-highest. Benjamin Morrison is in the discussion for best cornerback in college football. 

Notre Dame has given up 14 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.

Neither quarterback, Will Howard nor Riley Leonard, is a downfield gunslinging threat.

These teams put up a combined 63 points in their first meeting this season. That was back on opening week in Brazil. I'm not expecting anything close to that this time around.

The Eagles improved themselves to the point where they could be the best defense in the NFL. Philadelphia gave up the fewest yards per game, ranked No. 1 in pass defense and second in scoring defense holding foes to 17.8 points a game. The Eagles gave up fewer than 21 points in eight of their last nine games.

Jordan Love may not be 100 percent because of a sore elbow. He'll be without his top deep threat and best bubble sweep runner, Christian Watson.

Only two teams played at a slower tempo than Green Bay. I envision the Packers playing a conservative game running Josh Jacobs plenty of times mixed in with short passes.

Jalen Hurts received concussion clearance as expected after sitting out the past two games. What's not good news for the Eagles is Hurts has completed one pass in his last three games. He figures to be rusty. You have to wonder if the Eagles will still employ their highly effective tush push so often with Hurts now?

The Eagles play at the eighth-slowest pace in the league.

Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defense. Now the Packers are better coached defensively with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry as defensive coordinator. The Packers were fifth in fewest yards allowed, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in run defense. They also had the third-most takeaways.

You have to give the devil his due. Baker Mayfield has put together another great season. Led by Mayfield, the Buccaneers have become an offensive juggernaut ranking in the top-four in scoring, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 points or more in half of its games. This includes a wild, 51-27, win against the Saints.

New Orleans isn't going to stop the Buccaneers this time around either. The Saints rank 30th in yards allowed and run defense.

The Buccaneers are going for an NFC South Division crown. They are not going to let up. Mayfield is going to do his best to see that Mike Evans reaches his incentive clauses in his contract no matter how many points the Buccaneers are leading by.

Spencer Rattler has gotten more experience since that 51-27 loss, which was his first NFL start. The Buccaneers rank 29th in pass defense and have only seven takeaways. Their defense is way down from past seasons.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

It's not enough that the 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and possibly down to their fourth-string tailback. But now the injury-riddled 49ers are scrambling to put together a cohesive offensive line. The left side of their offensive line is down to third-stringers.

If the 49ers are going to make a long-term commitment to Brock Purdy they may consider sitting him out, or at least reducing his playing time. The Lions have plenty of defensive injuries, but they also have defensive line depth, excellent safeties and are well-coached. San Francisco is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention.

San Francisco isn't as banged-up defensively. The Lions won't need this game if the Vikings beat the Packers. If that were to happen, the Lions could dial down their attack not wanting to show much. A vanilla Detroit attack would have a more difficult time reaching this high of a total. Don't forget the 49ers held the Rams without a touchdown in a 12-6 loss at home just two weeks ago.

Bad weather is the forecast for this game - wind and steady rain. That's not a plus for Jayden Daniels, who makes fantastic plays because of his mobility.

The Falcons have become an Under team going below the total in six of their last seven games. Atlanta has improved its pass rush recording 16 sacks in its last four games after getting only 10 during its first 11 games.

This will be Michael Penix's first NFL road start. Expect a conservative game plan from the Falcons with lots of inside running plays.

Washington has held its last two non-elite offensive opponents, Saints and Titans, below 20 points. The Commanders' defense gets a boost with the return of two-time Pro bowl lineman Jonathan Allen.

Let's get the weather concerns out first. There is going to be rain. But light wind and the temperatures in the 40's.

It's a difficult travel spot for Minnesota. The Vikings have been humming, though, averaging 29.6 points during their last five games. They rank in the top-10 in points and passing.

Sam Darnold is having a career year in part because of excellent receiving targets. One Vikings' wide receiver has 30 catches for 473 yards and five touchdowns in his last five games - and it's not Justin Jefferson. It's Jordan Addison, who is having his breakout season.

Darnold not only has Jefferson, who draws a lot of double-team coverage, but Addison, a fully healthy now T.J. Hockenson and reliable pass-catching Aaron Jones out of the backfield.

Seattle's defense has improved, but it's middle-of-the-road.

The Seahawks have the league's No. 5 passing attack. Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are all expected to play. So Smith has plenty of firepower, too, given the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go with DK Metcalf.

Indiana averages 43.3 points a game, which is the second-highest in the country. Only Oregon was better in the Big Ten Conference on third downs. The Hooisers had just eight turnovers all season, third-fewest in the nation.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is an offensive guru. He has the right quarterback to operate his system in Kurtis Rourke, a rhythm passer who has five good receiving targets.

I have a red flag about Notre Dame's defense after the Irish surrendered 35 points, 559 yards and 29 first downs to USC in a 49-35 victory in their last game. USC QB Jayden Maiava had a big game with 360 yards passing and three TD throws against the Irish. I like Rourke more than Maiava.

But Notre Dame is favored for good reason. The Irish have a balanced attack. They have a physical offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage against Indiana's defensive front. Cignetti isn't going to sell out to stop the run like he did against Ohio State. That turned out to be a disaster in a 38-15 road loss to the Buckeyes. Indiana just doesn't have a strong enough defense to control Notre Dame.

Losing star players to opt outs and the transfer portal is a sad reality to handicapping bowl games nowadays.

In the case of West Virginia in this Frisco Bowl that also means a coaching change as Neal Brown was fired. Rich Rodriguez will take over next season. That leaves Chad Scott as the interim coach for this game. He's the Mountaineers' offensive coordinator.

The Mountaineers' transfer portal losses mainly came on defense. They will be short on cornerbacks and won't have their star linebacker, Josiah Trotter. Even with a full deck on defense, West Virginia gave up more than 36 points a game during their past six games.

Memphis certainly has the offense to take advantage behind four-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 102 touchdowns during his career. West Virginia ranks eighth-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

I don't trust Memphis' defense, though. The Tigers surrendered 56 points to Navy, 44 to North Texas and 44 to Texas San Antonio. They rank 115th in pass defense.

West Virginia has scored at least 31 points in four of its last five games.

Bills-Lions in a dome certainly has the makings of a high-scoring game. But when you get an NFL total this high a lot has to go right for an Over to cash. That means anything less than touchdowns scored on drives is a win for the Under.

The Bills just got through losing, 44-42, to the Rams. Then this past Thursday against the 49ers, Los Angeles managed only 12 points and didn't score a TD in a 12-6 win. Of course I'm not expecting a similar type score here. But I do believe this one falls short of reaching the mid-50's.

The two defenses are underrated enough for that to happen.

Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than Buffalo, which has held opponents to 20.6 a game. That's after surrendering 44 points to the Rams, too. The Bills rank ninth in pass defense and have the sixth-most takeaways.

The Lions permit only 18 points a game, which is third-fewest in the NFL. They also rank fifth in run defense and have come up with the fourth-most takeaways.

Za'Darius Smith has been a huge addition replacing injured superstar Aidan Hutchinson. The veteran Smith has three sacks and 20 quarterback pressures in four games with the Lions. Detroit has arguably the best safety tandem in the league with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. According to Pro Football Focus grades, Joseph is the No. 1 safety in the NFL and Branch grades fifth.

The Lions also shored up their secondary depth adding veteran Jamal Adams, who was a versatile star at safety just a couple of seasons ago before sustaining repeated injuries. Adams is healthy now and has been added to the roster.

The 49ers' offense is a shell of what it could be with Brock Purdy dealing with a sore arm, Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams out, reliable wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk out and their two top running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, both sidelined, too.

Chicago's defense is respectable. The Bears held the Packers, Commanders and Rams all under 21 points. They also yielded just 23 points to the Lions, who lead the NFL in scoring at 32.1 points a game. 

The Bears haven't broken the 20-point barrier in any of their five road games. Chicago is averaging 14.6 points in its five road contests. The Bears also might be down their top receiver as D.J. Moore is questionable. 

Chicago just fired Matt Eberflus. Good for them. But they named Thomas Brown interim head coach. Brown had just recently been elevated to offensive coordinator. Now he's responsible for the entire team. So details to Chicago's offense may get neglected this week, especially on a long road trip. 

The 49ers are going to play with maximum intensity. They will be conservative, too, relying on third-string rookie running back Isaac Guerendo. 

So I see a low-scoring game. 

Two bottom feeding AFC South Division teams with nothing going should ensure a loose game.

Tennessee's defense has good statistics. But the Titans don't play to those numbers. They are not a sound defense surrendering an average of 31.7 points in their last seven games. 

Mac Jones engineered two touchdown drives while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt against a respectable Texans defense after replacing injured Trevor Lawrence last week. 

Will Levis is an improving quarterback. He has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last four games while compiling a 101.4 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt during this span.

The Titans have a number of defensive players hurt. The Jaguars could be minus their top cornerback, Tyson Campbell. He has a thigh injury. 

If the weather forecast for this matchup holds true, it's going to make last Thursday's Steelers-Browns snow game seem like a warm day in Hawaii. 

A winter storm watch with more than a half-foot of snow, 30 mph winds and a will chill factor near single digits is what is being predicted. 

That's not good for Brock Purdy ... if he even plays after missing last week due to a sore right shoulder. 49ers backup QB Brandon Allen is a stiff, who isn't 100 percent either.

Aside from George Kittle, the 49ers' major weapons have been either disappointing or out for the season. Christian McCaffrey has done nothing since returning three games ago. He's averaged less than 50 yards rushing a game and has yet to score a touchdown. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams remains out.

The Bills give up fewer than 20 points per game and could get back their best linebacker, Matt Milano. 

The Bills have become far more run-oriented this season. That certainly should be the case for this matchup given the weather conditions and that Josh Allen again could be down two of his four best receivers. Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out and Keon Coleman is questionable.

Among the many things Jim Harbaugh has done in upgrading the Chargers this season is getting a career year from Justin Herbert in terms of all-around play.

Look for Herbert to have a big performance against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass defense and has an NFL-low 10 sacks. By comparison, the next lowest team in sacks is Carolina with 17. On top of this, the Falcons went into their bye with a cluster injury problem in their secondary. It's far from a given they will have some of these defensive backs available.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers. But their defense is not dominant because it can't stop explosive offenses. The Chargers built their defensive numbers going against six bad/backup type quarterbacks.

But when the Chargers met the Ravens and Bengals during the last two weeks, they surrendered 30 and 27 points.

The Falcons are in the middle. Not as explosive as the Ravens and Bengals, but Kirk Cousins is a major upgrade on these quarterbacks the Chargers have been fortunate to face: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis.

The Falcons should have a good game plan having had an extra week to prepare. The time off should allow underrated Darnell Mooney to be able to play, joining Cousins' other weapons Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Not only is this a rivalry game, but the stakes are huge because the winner becomes bowl eligible while the season is finished for the loser. That should provide for maximum intensity.

This is the lowest total on a Virginia game all season. It's justified. The Cavaliers' attack has regressed. Virginia is averaging 14.7 points in its last four games.

Virginia Tech has quarterback issues. Because of injuries to Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee, the Hokies could be forced to start third-string freshman Pop Watson. That would mark Watson's first college start. He was not accurate passing when forced into action in last week's road loss to Duke.

The Hokies' best weapon could be Peter Moore, who is one the best punters in the country.

Given how explosive Detroit's offense is, especially at home on carpet inside a dome, and the Bears' offensive improvement, this total is too low. 

Caleb Williams has shown vast improvement since Thomas Brown replaced ineffective Shane Waldron as the Bear's offensive coordinator. Brown has played to Williams' strengths and the results have shown the past two weeks.

The Bears produced 19 points, 391 yards and 23 first down against the Packers two weeks ago. Chicago followed that up by scoring 27 points, gaining 398 yards and 20 first downs against the Vikings last week. 

Chicago will need to take chances and be aggressive offensively because it won't be able to contain a balanced Detroit offense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points and is No. 2 in total yards. 

The Lions are averaging a mind-blowing 48.6 points in their last three home games. Dan Campbell will be anxious to put on a show for this annual Thanksgiving Day game. 

It's taken a while, but the Eagles have bought into defensive mastermind Vic Fangio scheme. That's been the history during Fangio's first year with a new team.

The Eagles now rank first in fewest yards allowed and are No. 2 in pass defense. Philadelphia has yielded only 13.8 points per game during its past six games. During this six-game span, the Eagles are allowing just 209.7 yards per game.

The Rams managed only 15 points against the Dolphins in their previous home game two weeks ago. The Eagles' defense is superior to Miami's defense.

Los Angeles has held its last eight opponents to 24 points or fewer. The Eagles will be without their No. 2 wide receiver, DeVonta Smith. He's out with a hamstring injury. There's a big drop-off from Smith to the Eagles' next best receiver.

Because Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to a concussion, you can toss out Miami's season statistics. The Dolphins without Tagovailoa were terrible. They are explosive with him, one of the better offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points since Tagovailoa returned four games ago. They are eighth in expected points during this time frame.

New England has gotten better offensively and worse defensively. If you discount holding the punchless Bears to three points, the Patriots have surrendered an average of 28.6 points in their last five games. New England is below average in all of the major defensive categories.

Drake Maye, though, keeps getting better. He completed 30-of-40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams last week. The Dolphins have an average defense, far from dominant.

Hope is not lost just yet for Will Levis. He's shown improvement after coming back from a shoulder injury completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 470 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Levis has some underrated weapons, including Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.

The Texans have allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

Tennessee's defense is the opposite of a bend-but-don't break defense. The Titans rank in the top two in defensive total yards and pass defense. However, they rank 26th in scoring defense permitting 26.3 points a game. Some of that comes from horrible coverage on special teams. The Titans only have three takeaways. Their defense is not nearly as good as some of their statistics.

C.J. Stroud is due to explode having Nico Collins back in the lineup after he missed five weeks with a hamstring injury. Collins got the rust off last week.

Joe Mixon continues to shine for Houston. His 95.5 yards rushing a game ranks third behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Mixon has scored 10 touchdowns in his last six games.