Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-22 | Jazz -3 v. Pacers | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Jazz -3) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Jazz as a slim 3-point road favorite against Utah. The Jazz lost 108-22 at Toronto last night, but they basically punted that game, resting basically all their key players who weren't already out. They were just playing the rest game in a back-to-back spot. I expect Utah to get most of those guys back who skipped yesterday's game. You also got to look at the state of this Pacers team. Indiana has lost 6 in a row and just can't seem to get their core group of guys on the floor at the same time. While a couple guys could return, conditioning is an issue for them and they just lost 3 more guys to Covid, including one of their better players in Caris LeVert. I see no reason why you wouldn't expect more of the same from Indiana as we have seen here of late. Give me the Jazz -3! |
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01-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU -1.5 | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -1.5) Great matchup here with No. 21 LSU hosting No. 18 Tennessee and I just can't help myself but to back the Tigers at basically a pick'em at home. You are clearly getting respect when you are ranked in the Top 25, but I think LSU is way better than the No. 21. KenPom has them as the No. 13 ranked team in the country. They are 13-1 with their only loss coming at Auburn. I also think their homecourt edge is sneaky good when the fans have reason to be excited about the team. Tennessee is a good team, but they are far from elite. They have had some slip ups away from home, losing by 18 to Villanova on a neutral,by 5 to Texas Tech on a neutral and by 5 at Alabama. I just don't think the Vols are a great road team with how much they rely on their defense, especially against a team that is every bit as good defensively as they are. Give me LSU -1.5! |
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01-08-22 | Baylor v. TCU +10 | 76-64 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (TCU +10) I will take my chances with TCU as a double-digit home dog against the Bears. Baylor is a team that I'll be looking to fade as much as possible, as the books are surely going to inflate their lines given they are the defending champs and off to such a great start again this year. Bears figure to win a lot of games, but covering the big numbers won't be easy with the constant target on their back. As for the Horned Frogs, this is a team that I think is clearly better than what we expected. I get their 10-1 start has been aided by a soft schedule, but they have been impressive in those wins over lessor teams. You know we are going to get their best effort here and I'm not so sure Baylor will be as invested. Give me the Horned Frogs +10! |
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01-08-22 | Kansas -4.5 v. Texas Tech | 67-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Kansas -4.5) I got no problem laying the 4.5 with the Jayhawks on the road against a depleted Texas Tech team. The Rad Raiders only lost by 4 in their Big 12 opener against a highly ranked ISU team, but the only reason that game was even remotely close was because of how bad the Cyclones are offensively. Not that Tech's defense didn't have something to do with it, but it was a lot of ISU just shooting the ball poorly. This is also a Red Raiders team that is far from full strength. They only had 5 scholarship players available for that game Wednesday at ISU and might have to work with the same group in this one, which doesn't include arguably their two best players. Kansas might not be as good as ISU defensively, but they are pretty strong on that side. The bigger thing here is they can score. Jayhawks are 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 8th in effective FG%. Give me Kansas -4.5! |
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01-08-22 | Syracuse v. Wake Forest -4.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Wake Forest -4.5) I got no problem laying the 4.5 with Wake Forest at home against the Orange. I just don't like what I've seen out of this Syracuse team to start this season. This is a team that when they have been good under Jim Boeheim, they have been good defensively. The Orange are not good defensively. They are one of the worst in the country. Not only do they not defend the basket, they don't force many turnovers and give up way to many offensive rebounds. Wake Forest has been one of the big surprises out of the ACC. The Demon Deacons are 12-3 and have went from being ranked No. 105 at KenPom to start the year to No. 53. Their only 3 losses coming away from home against quality teams in LSU, Louisville and Miami. Give me Wake Forest -4.5! |
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01-08-22 | Texas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 51-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas -2.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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01-08-22 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M +1.5 | 81-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas A&M +1.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Aggies as a small home dog against the Razorbacks. Arkansas came into this season way overvalued and are still getting too much love. The Razorbacks started out as the No. 15 ranked team at KenPom and are now No. 50, which means they aren't even a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. They come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The losses aren't great. They lost by 22 to Oklahoma, by 8 to Hofstra, by 13 at Miss State and by 1 at home to Vandy. Texas A&M's rankings haven't changed much, as they started out No. 76 and are now No. 66. With that said, I do think this Aggies team is flying under the radar. They are 12-2 with their only two losses to TCU and Wisconsin. The Horned Frogs are 10-1 right now, while the Badgers are 12-2. Texas A&m comes in having won 5 straight and have one of the better homecourt edges in the country. Give me the Aggies +1.5! |
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01-08-22 | Connecticut v. Seton Hall -4.5 | 87-90 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS MASSACRE (Seton Hall -4.5) This might seem like a little too much for the Pirates to be laying at home against a good UConn team that is expected to have everyone back from either injury or Covid. I don't think it's enough. This Seton Hall team has really exceeded expectations this year and they got the resume to back up their strong 10-3 start. The Pirates have wins over Michigan, Texas and Rutgers. They also showed well in all of their losses, losing by 3 to Ohio State, 5 to Providence and by 6 to Villanova. Not that I don't think this UConn isn't any good. When they are at full strength they are a very dangerous team. The problem here is they aren't at 100%. While everyone is expected back, a lot of those guys coming back figure to be on a minutes restriction and I don't think it's a guarantee that Sanogo plays. Huskies may also be dealing with some rust, as they haven't played since Dec. 21. Give me Seton Hall -4.5! |
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01-07-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Lakers | 118-134 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Hawks +3.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a 3.5-point dog against the Lakers. It may look like LA has turned a corner going 4-1 SU in their last 5 and riding a 3-game win streak, but those 4 wins have come against the Rockets, Blazers, Twolves and Kings. They had a blowout win against a depleted Portland team, but the other 3 were all pretty close games. I just don't think the Lakers are that good, especially without AD on the floor. As for the Hawks, Atlanta's got a bunch of guys on the injury report, but all signs are that they will play. Good chance the Hawks will have their entire 2-deep available for this game, which is unheard of right now in the NBA with how Covid is decimating rosters. I think Atlanta is really going to be motivated to play well, which is always the case for any team when they go against LeBron. Give me the Hawks +3.5! |
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01-07-22 | Cavs -6 v. Blazers | Top | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cavs -6) I love the Cavs as a mere 6-point road favorite against the Blazers. This is just too good a price to pass up with Cleveland. I know laying 6 on the road is a lot, but not when the team you are playing is down their top two players. Portland won't have Lillard or McCollum. They also figure to be down another starter in Larry Nance Jr. This is also a great buy low spot for the Cavs, who have lost 4 of their last 5 and are 0-5 ATS during this stretch. Most of these games came with Cleveland playing shorthanded. They got some guys back in their last game, but just came up short against a red-hot Ja Morant led Grizzlies team. With a big showdown against the Warriors in Golden State on Sunday, I think the Cavs will be eager to get a win and have some momentum going into that game. I just don't see Portland having enough fire-power offensively to keep this close. Give me Cleveland -6! |
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01-07-22 | Mavs v. Rockets +3 | 130-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Rockets +3) I will gladly take my chances with Houston as a 3-point home dog against a short-handed Mavs team. Luka Doncic is doubtful after injuring his right ankle in Wednesday's win over the Warriors. Dallas is also still without Kristaps Porzingis. This team has been able to compete when at least one of their two stars has been on the court. I'm not so sure they should even be favored on the road without them. The other big thing here is the spot. Every team is getting up to play the Warriors right now, which makes them prime for a letdown the next game out. Not only was the game against Golden State big because of who they played, it was also the night they honored the legendary Dirk Nowitzki. Give me the Rockets +3! |
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01-06-22 | USC v. California +5.5 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (California +5.5) Give me the Golden Bears as a 5.5-point home dog against the No. 7 ranked Trojans. I think we are getting some exceptional value with Cal in this one. USC comes into this game 12-0. When a team is undefeated in January, people start to take notice. So do the books. The lines on these teams start to get inflated. Not having a loss on your resume this late in the season is impressive, but you also can't ignore the soft schedule that USC has played. The Trojans have played just three teams at KenPom who rank inside the Top 100 overall. Those being No. 41 San Diego St, No. 47 Washington St and No. 90 Utah. Cal is just 9-5, but they are 7-1 over their last 8 and come in on a 5-game winning streak. The Golden Bears are really good defensively and offense doesn't always come easy for the Trojans. Another factor that could hinder USC's offense is rust. The Trojans haven't played since Dec. 18. It will be 18 days between games for USC, which I think it's been long enough to where the time off hurts you more than it helps. Give me Cal +5.5! |
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01-06-22 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 220.5 | 89-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 220.5) I'll take my chances with the OVER 220.5 in tonight's matchup between the Clippers and Suns. I think with Phoenix forced to play small with Ayton and McGree, they are playing with a little more pace. They just finished up their two game road trip scoring 133 on 51% shooting at Charlotte and 123 on 54% shooting at New Orleans. I got to think with this being a big game on TNT (these games get a lot more hype now that there's no football on Thursday nights), the Suns are going to want to put on a show. The other big thing is the Clippers aren't exactly locking teams down on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up 116 points or more in each of their last 3 and teams are averaging a healthy 96.8 possessions per game in their last 4. Clippers are also fairing better offensively here of late than you might think with Paul George sidelined. LA has shot 49% or better in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 220.5! |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers OVER 216.5 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5) I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in tonight's non-conference game between the Heat and Blazers. There's a lot of big names that won't be on the floor for both teams, which has created the value with the total. Portland's been without Lillard and McCollum for a few games now. While the offensive numbers aren't all that great, it's the defense that has caught my attention. The Blazers are giving up 126.6 ppg on 54.5% shooting over their last 5 games. Miami is a team that is known for playing good defense, but they aren't locking teams down right now with all the guys out. Heat have allowed 110 or more in each of their last 4. This is also a big flat spot for Miami who was at Golden State on Monday and next up after this game is a showdown at Phoenix with the Suns on Saturday. Give me the OVER 216.5! |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Iowa St -3.5) I love Iowa State as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Red Raiders. The Cyclones are no longer undefeated after a 72-77 home loss to Baylor on Saturday, but there's no shame in losing that game and if ISU goes better than 1 for 14 from behind the 3-point line they probably win that game. I just don't think 3.5 is near enough for the Cyclones to be laying at home, as they have one of the biggest home court advantages in college basketball and will be locked in after that loss to the Bears. I'm also not sold on Texas Tech being as good as their 10-2 record. Sure their only to losses are to providence and Gonzaga, but they got just 1 respectable win, a 57-52 OT win over Tennessee. The guy who carried them in that win over the Vols, Terrence Shannon, won't play in this game with a back injury. The other big thing is turnovers. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country in taking the ball away (No. 5 in defensive TO%) and Texas Tech is one of the worst in protecting the basketball (No. 248 in offensive TO%). Give me the Cyclones -3.5! |
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01-05-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Raptors +7.5) Easy play for me on the Raptors as a 7.5-point road dog against the Bucks tonight. Toronto has been an absolute covering machine of late. With last night's 129-104 win at home against the Spurs as a 6.5-point favorite, they have now covered 4 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall. Big reason for the strong play of late is the Raptors are close to full strength and right now that's such a huge advantage with how many guys are out with Covid. The Bucks aren't exactly decimated but they are without starting shooting guard Grayson Allen and three key reserves in Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton and Jordan Nwora. I don't think it's a sure thing the Bucks even win this game outright. Give me the Raptors +7.5! |
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01-05-22 | Syracuse v. Miami-FL -2 | 87-88 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Miami -2) I will gladly take my chances with the Hurricanes as a short 2-point home favorite against the Orange. Miami is a team that I think is a little better than what people think. They are 11-3 with no bad losses (UCF, Dayton and Alabama). They come in with a ton of confidence having won 7 straight and are 3-0 in conference play. On the flip side, SYracuse is a team that has been a disappointment. They started the season ranked No. 42 at KenPom and are now No. 71. They are just 7-6 with their best wins coming against Arizona St, Indiana and Florida State. Three other teams I would say have not lived up to the hype this season. I just don't think with how bad they are defensively and how good Miami is offensively, they can go into the Watsco Center and get a win. Give me the Hurricanes -2! |
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01-05-22 | Pittsburgh +12.5 v. Louisville | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Pittsburgh +12.5) I think we are getting a steal here with the Panthers at +12.5. It's easy to see why Pitt is undervalued right now. The Panthers look like a horrible team with a 5-8 record, but that's not the case at all. Their last 4 losses have all come by 4 points or fewer, including two gut-wrenching losses to open ACC play with a 56-57 loss at Virginia and a 67-68 loss at home to Notre Dame. Louisville is 9-4 and 4 of their best wins against Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech have all come by 8 or points or fewer. Another factor here is rest. Louisville just played on Sunday at Georgia Tech, so they will be on just 2 days of rest. Pitt hasn't played since last Tuesday. Give me the Panthers +12.5! |
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01-04-22 | Virginia v. Clemson -3 | 75-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Clemson -3) I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with Clemson, as they host Virginia Tuesday night. The Tigers will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence, as they have won 4 straight and their most recent win came against the same team they are playing tonight, as they rolled the Cavaliers 67-50 back on Dec. 22. Usually I'm a little skeptical of taking a team in a rematch, but that's more so when the rematch comes quickly. It's been two weeks since these two teams played and while Clemson has been off since that game, Virginia had to play on Saturday, so they are on just 2 days of rest here. I just think we have two teams that have went in opposite directions since the start of the season and there's value with the line because of how slow the books can be to adjust their numbers. Give me Clemson -3! |
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01-04-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +8 | 123-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Pelicans +8) We took one on the chin last night with the Pelicans +10, as they lost 104-115 at home to the Jazz after trailing by just 3 at the half and by only 5 going into the 4th. New Orleans nearly covered despite Brandon Ingram going just 3 of 18 from the field in his return to the lineup. Ingram should be much better going forward and this Pelicans team should be a good bet for a while now that they are healthy. I know New Orleans is on the second leg of a back-to-back, but it's not nearly as bad playing in this spot when both games are at home. I also think it's a great time to sell high on Phoenix after they just annihilated the Hornets 133-99 in their last game. Suns are still playing short-handed, as they are without their two big guys in Ayton and McGee, as well as their glue guy at power forward in Crowder. Give me the Pelicans +8! |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs -3 | 110-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Cavs -3) This is too good a price to pass up with the Cavs as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Grizzlies. This Cleveland team has been a money maker all season and really the only time they haven't played well is when they have been decimated with injuries. With Darius Garland expected back from quarantine, they will be in great shape here. This is also a spot where I'll happily fade Memphis. The Grizzlies have been playing some great basketball of late, especially Ja Morant, but they are playing on no rest on the road for a second straight night, after last night's 118-104 upset win against Durant/Harden and the Nets. I think it's going to be tough for the short-handed Grizzlies to cover this short number. Give me the Cavs -3! |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Wake Forest -1) I love Wake Forest as a mere 1-point home favorite against Florida State. This not only feels like a great spot to back the Demon Deacons coming off road losses at Louisville and at Miami, but this is also a Seminoles team that I think is still way overvalued. Florida State has not lived up to their preseason hype. They are just 7-4 with their best win on their resume based on KenPom's rankings being a victory against No. 113 ranked Loyola-Marymount. Wake Forest had started out 11-1 before losing their last two and even with those losses they still come in ranked No. 65 at KenPom, which is quite a jump from there they started the year at No. 105. Home court is also a huge factor in this play, as Wake Forest had one of the best home court advantages in the country. Give me the Demon Deacons -1! |
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01-03-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans +10 | 115-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Pelicans +10) I will gladly take my chances with the Pelicans as a double-digit dog against the Jazz tonight. I just think the Warriors have been put on such a pedestal to start this year that teams are really gearing up to play them. I believe that sets up a real chance of a letdown the following game, especially if it's against a far inferior opponent. That's the scenario we have here with Utah coming off a home game against Golden State on Saturday and being a big road favorite against New Orleans. It hasn't been horrible for the Pelicans of late. They 5-2 SU over their last 7 and have covered 4 of their last 6. They could also be getting a big boost here with the potential return of Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas. Give me the Pelicans +10! |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +2.5 | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards +2.5) I think we are getting a great price with the Wizards as a 2.5-point home dog against the Bulls. Chicago has been playing some great basketball here of late and come into this game on a 6-game winning streak. They key here is the spot. The Bulls were at Indiana last night and beat the Pacers 108-106 on a last second 3-point heave by DeRozan. This is where I think not having guys like Ball and Caruso will finally catch up to them, as this will be Chicago's 5th game in 7 days. Wizards had Friday off and last time out they crushed the Cavs 110-93 at home as a 4.5-point favorite. It was the 4th cover in the last 5 games for Washington. I think they catch the Bulls sleepwalking into this one and get an outright win. Give me the Wizards +2.5! |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State +7.5 | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Iowa St +7.5) I will gladly roll the dice and take the Cyclones as a 7.5-point home dog against Baylor in huge Big 12 opener between two teams that come in 12-0 in Non-Conference play. While it's been an impressive start for the Bears coming off last year's National Championship, especially given what they lost, it doesn't come close to the surprise start of Iowa State. A lot of people had this Cyclones team picked to finish last in the Big 12. That's not going to be the case. ISU's 12-0 start is no fluke. They have wins over Oregon St, Xavier, Memphis, Creighton and Iowa. They remind me a lot of the great Virginia teams of recent years. The offense isn't going to wow you, but the defense is so good that it doesn't matter. The Cyclones rank 7th in the country in defensive efficiency, 6th in effective FG% defense, 7th in opponent TO% and 3rd in 3PT% defense. Even when ISU is bad, Hilton Coliseum is a tough place for an opposing team to get a win. It's extremely tough when there's this kind of hype around the team. I give them a good shot to win this game outright. Give me the Cyclones +7.5! |
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12-31-21 | Bulls -4.5 v. Pacers | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Bulls -4.5) The Bulls have really taken advantage of some teams what have been hit hard with Covid. They just took two in a row over the Hawks. Now they play a Pacers team that will be without Brogdon and Duarte. Chicago has won 5 straight and covered 4 in a row. They are 8-3 ATS over their last 11. Pacers are 1-6 ATS this season vs division opponents. I just don't think Indiana will have the scoring power to keep up the Bulls in this one. Chicago is averaging 124.4 ppg on 54% shooting in their 5 game win streak. Give me the Bulls -4.5! |
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12-30-21 | Michigan v. UCF +3.5 | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money Vegas Insider (UCF +3.5) I will take my chances with the Knights as a 3.5-point home dog against the Wolverines. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of UCF so far this season. The Knights are 8-2 with their only two losses coming to Oklahoma and Auburn. On the flip side, Michigan has not lived up to the preseason hype. This was a team that many thought was Final Four worthy and they are just 7-4 with two home losses to Seton Hall and Minnesota and a two blowout losses on the road to Arizona and UNC. Even with what we have seen, the betting public won't be able to help themselves. They are going to lay the short number with Michigan on the road. That tells me the books are more than happy with needing UCF to cover this short number. Give me the Knights +3.5! |
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12-29-21 | Hawks v. Bulls -8 | 117-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bulls -8) Handicapping the NBA right now is quite the process with all the guys out with COVID. I think it's all about trying to find the team with the biggest edge and to me that's the Bulls. These two teams just played on Monday in Atlanta, which the Bulls won and covered 130-118. Usually I would look to take the team that lost the first meeting in a home-and-away scenario like this, but I just can't with Atlanta. While the Hawks did get back Trae Young and Clint Capela on Monday from Covid, they lost Bogdanovic on Tuesday. Bogdanovic played 41 mins and scored 20 points in that game. Young scored 29, which looks great, but he did not shoot it well, going just 8 of 23 (1-6 on 3-pts). Atlanta also got 33 points from Cam Reddish, who was 8 of 13 on 3-pointers and still lost that game by double-digits. I just don't think the Hawks have enough healthy bodies to go on the road and expect to keep this close. Chicago's only significant contributors who are out with Covid right now are Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Give me the Bulls -8! |
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12-29-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence UNDER 139.5 | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 139.5) I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total for Wednesday's Big East clash between Providence and Seton Hall. Neither of these teams shoot the 3-ball all that well and both are pretty stout defensively. Providence is also a team that wants to play slow. They rank 219th in adjusted tempo. They should be able to dictate the tempo at home. At the same time, Seton Hall's defense is really good. Their opponents average possession length is 18.1, which is 309th longest in the country. The other big thing is the spot. Seton Hall hasn't played since Dec. 12 and Providence has been off since Dec. 18th. You got think both of these offenses will be a little rusty. Give me the UNDER 139.5! |
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12-28-21 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Nuggets +7) I will take my chances with the Nuggets catching 7-points on the road against the Warriors. While Golden State has had two days off since their big win at Phoenix on Christmas Day, I do think there could be a bit of a letdown herel. I also think the loss of Draymond Green is a big deal. The combination of him and Curry is what makes this team so special. Green also is the glue that keeps that defense together. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole have both cleared protocol. Wiggins may play, but it doesn't sound like Poole will be available. As for the Nuggets, the only guy they got in quarantine right now is Bol Bol, who barely plays. I not only think Denver can keep this close, I give them a decent shot here to win outright. Give me the Nuggets +7! |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs +6.5 | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Spurs +6.5) Like the value we are getting with the Spurs as a 6.5-point dog at Utah. The Jazz have been going thru the motions here of late. While they have won 3 straight and are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games, they have failed to cover 5 straight. On the flip side, San Antonio has been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Spurs are 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. They have also went a very strong 10-5 SU during this stretch. With Mitchell out for Utah, I not only think the Spurs cover, but win outright. Give me San Antonio +6.5! |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 53 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Christmas Day Total DESTROYER (Under 228.5) I was shocked to see the total for the Suns/Warriors game on Christmas Day pushing 230. These two teams have already played twice this year and neither one was all that high scoring. The Suns won 104-96 at home in the first meeting and Golden State responded with a 118-96 win in the rematch. Not only will the familiarity help keep the scoring down, but we almost always get these huge defensive efforts in these Christmas games, which leads to a lot of UNDERs cashing at the ticket window. I just don't see this game getting into the 220s. Give me the UNDER 228.5! |
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12-23-21 | Rockets +9.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +9.5) I love the Rockets as a 9.5-point dog against the Pacers tonight. Indiana has no business laying close to double-digits. This team has no lived up to the hype and are just 13-19 to start the season. Indiana's Malcolm Brogdon, who I think is their best player, is listed as questionable. However, I don't think the's playing. He's got an Achilles injury that's bothering him. He played just 8 mins in their last game before it flared up. Not saying they don't need him to beat the Rockets, but it's definitely easier to rest him against a lesser team. I also think having two days off after this game makes it more likely they won't rush him back. I also think this line has been adjusted too much because the Rockets are on no rest. They didn't have to use a ton of energy in a 20-point loss to the Bucks. Houston also gets back No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green from injury. I like the Rockets to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Give me Houston +9.5! |
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12-22-21 | Virginia Tech +9 v. Duke | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Va Tech +9) I got to take the 9-points with the Hokies on the road against the Blue Devils. Duke is such a public team that you bet against them blindly and know that you are getting value and I just think after three straight cupcake wins (all covers), we are seeing max inflation on the Blue Devils. This Virginia Tech team is no joke. The Hokies are just 8-4 and while that might not seem all that impressive for a team that was expected to be pretty good, it's been good enough for them to go from being the No. 39 ranked team at KenPom to the No. 22. They have nothing to be ashamed about with their 4 losses, which have come against Memphis, Xavier, Wake Forest (undefeated) and Dayton (beat Kansas). I think the Hokies can make a game of this and while I don't know that they can pull off the upset, I see this coming down to the wire. Give me Virginia Tech +9! |
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12-22-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -5.5 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Celtics -5.5) I will lay the 5.5 with the Celtics as they host the Cavs tonight. I know both of these teams are missing a lot of guys because of Covid, but Boston clearly is in the better situation. The Celtics only starter that isn't playing is Al Horford. They got Tatum, Brown and Smart all available, as well as guys like Robert Williams, Dennis Schroder and Payton Pritchard. It's a different story for the Cavs. Cleveland will be down 3 starters, including their dynamic frontcourt duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Not only are these two guys a force defensively (combine for 3.2 blocks/game), account for 19.1 of their 45.0 rebounds/game and are their 2nd and 4th leading scorers (Collin Sexton is 3rd and is also out). Give me the Celtics -5.5! |
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12-22-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Hawks | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Magic +8.5) I don't love betting on bad teams like the Magic, but this is a spot you have to roll the dice. As bad as Orlando is, they should not be anywhere close to a double-digit dog against a Hawks team that is going to be without their best player in Trae Young, as well as big man Clint Capela and one of their top reserves in Danilo Gallinari. This is also an Atlanta team is tied for the 10th and final playoff spot in the East at 14-15. Where would this team be if they didn't have Young for the season? They just shouldn't be laying this many points in this spot. You also got to factor in that Atlanta has two big games on deck. They go to Philly to play the 76ers tomorrow and are at the Knicks on Christmas Day. It would not shock me if they lost this game outright. Give me the Magic +8.5! |
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12-22-21 | Chicago State v. Drake -24 | 50-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Drake -24) This is a situation that I think you have to play no matter what and that's fading a team like Chicago State in this spot. The Cougars find themselves playing on no rest after taking on No. 9 ranked Iowa State last night. A game they lost by 31 points. 4 different guys played 30+ minutes for Chicago State in that game. You see teams play on no rest early in the season in some of these tournaments, but it's always both teams playing on no rest. I get there's not much travel from Ames to Des Moines, but it's still back-to-back road games in two really tough venues. KenPom has Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum ranked as the 18th toughest place to play and Drake's Knapp Center is 21st. This is also a Drake team that is starting to find themselves after a slow start. Bulldogs have won 5 of 6 since their 3-3 start and the only loss during this is a OT setback against Clemson on a neutral floor. This is a hungry team that should feast. Give me Drake -24! |
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12-21-21 | Pacers -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-125 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Pacers -2.5) Indiana is one of the few teams in the NBA that haven't been hit hard with Covid, outside of T.J. Warren, who has yet to play this year, Indiana is at full strength. While it's not Covid that has depleted Miami's roster, the Heat have been hit hard with injuries. Miami we know will be without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris and Caleb Martin. Tyler Herro is also questionable. I also like how the Pacers come into this game. Indiana is 4-2 in their last 6 games with their only two losses coming by 2 at home to the Warriors and by 15 on the road to the Bucks, where they let Milwaukee go on a 21-0 run in the 4th quarter. Give me the Pacers -2.5! |
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12-21-21 | Davidson v. Alabama OVER 148 | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (OVER 148) I see Alabama and Davidson having no problem going OVER the total of 148. The Wildcats haven't seen an offense anywhere close to what they will be up against tonight in Alabama. The Crimson Tide rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and are 10th in average possession length. The best team Davidson has played so far in terms of offensive efficiency is San Francisco, who is 73rd, but the Dons are just 205th in possession length. ECU is the fastest team they have played in possession length and they rank 98th. On the flip side, Alabama has faced 4 teams this season that rank in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency and all 4 of those teams scored at least 78 points. Davidson ranks 29th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are also 4th in 3-PT% at 41.6%. Crimson Tide faced a very similar team in South Dakota State, who ranked 19th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in 3-PT% and that game was won 104-88 by Alabama. Give me the OVER 148! |
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12-20-21 | Rockets +7.5 v. Bulls | 118-133 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Rockets +7.5) We will take the 7.5 with the Rockets on the road against the Bulls. This is a tough spot for Chicago. The Bulls played for the first time in over a week yesterday in a 115-10 win over LeBron and the Lakers. Now they got to play another game shorthanded against a Rockets team that has been playing much better of late. Bulls only used 8 guys last night and are still missing a bunch of players, including Zach LaVine and several key reserves like Ayo Dosunmu, Alize Johnson and Troy Brown Jr. I not only think Chicago will have a tough time covering this number, I think they could win outright. Give me the Rockets +7.5! |
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12-19-21 | SMU v. New Mexico +5 | 90-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (New Mexico +5) I'm going to take my chances here with the Lobos as a 5-point home dog against the Mustangs. KenPom says this line should be around 8, yet it opened at 6.5 and is moving hard in favor of the Lobos. Some books are already down to 4.5. That's a pretty clear indicator of where the big money is. It's certainly not the public driving this line move. New Mexico is a difficult place to play. KenPom ranks their home court edge at 4.2, which is the 6th best mark of any team in the country. The environment could be a problem for a SMU team that has played a true road game since losing by 23 on the road to Oregon back in early November. I also think this SMU team could be a little rusty in this game, as they haven't taken the floor since they hosted Dayton way back on Dec. 8th. Give me the Lobos +5! |
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12-18-21 | Utah State v. Iowa -6 | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Iowa -6) This feels like a great buy low spot with Iowa laying only 6 at home against Utah State. Some might think the 7-0 start wasn't all it was made out ot be after watching the Hawkeyes lose 3 in a row, but all 3 of those were against NCAA Tournament teams in Purdue, Illinois and Iowa State. I still think this Iowa team will be in the Big Dance when it's all said and done. Utah State is a good team, but they don't have the the defense to slow down this Iowa offense like the last 3 teams the Hawks have faced. After a bad showing against ISU, I look for one of the nation's best scorers, Keegan Murray, to have a monster game, as this Iowa team feeds off one of the best home court advantages. Give me the Hawkeyes -6! |
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12-18-21 | Magic v. Nets UNDER 211.5 | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5) This game will look like an exhibition game with all the guys that won't play for both teams. The biggest story here being what the Nets will have to work with. Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Bembry, Bruce Brown, Paul Milsap, Joe Harris and James Johnson are all out. Kyrie also won't play with it being a home game and Nicolas Claxton is questionable. It's not much better for the Magic, who have 11 guys ruled out and Cole Anthony questionable. I just think there's not going to be enough offensive talent on the floor for this game to get into the 200's and we got a total north of 210. Give me the UNDER 211.5! |
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12-18-21 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 208 | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 208) I really like the UNDER in tonight's game between the Raptors and Warriors. Golden State will be without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andre Iguodala. Not having Curry on the floor alone is huge for the UNDER. Key here is that this Warriors team has shown they will come out to win regardless of who is on the floor and this feels like a game where some of those young guys show out. It's not all good for the Raptors either, as they got a number of guys on the injury report. Give me the UNDER 208! |
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12-17-21 | Heat -5 v. Magic | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -5) I got to lay the -5 with the Heat at the Magic. I just think Miami is a bit undervalued in the market right now because of the injuries. Adebayo is out until at least mid-January, Butler won't be back, Herro is questionable. Some teams that would be a huge deal, but the Heat are a very deep and well coached team. They just won at Philly against Embiid and the 76ers without any of those guys. Unless they are a complete no show here, they should cover this number. Magic are 2-8 ATS at home this season and they got 3 starters who may or may not play in Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba and Garry Harris. They are already without Suggs, Fultz, Isaac, Moore and Carter-Williams. If Anthony doesn't go, this could get ugly. Give me the Heat -5! |
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12-17-21 | Liberty v. East Carolina +3.5 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (E Carolina +3.5) I'll gladly take the 3.5-points with the Pirates as they take on Liberty in the Hall of Fame Shootout in Charlotte. KenPom has Liberty rated No. 126 and ECU ranked No. 157, but I'm not buying into the Flames. Keep in mind they started out ranked No. 92, so they are the decline and may not be properly rated just yet. The biggest thing I look at is the Flames haven't beat anybody. Out of their 6 wins, 3 have come against teams ranked No. 342 or worse, two have been against Non-DI opponents and the other is to an awful Missouri team. ECU is 8-2 with their only two losses coming on a neutral floor to No. 35 ranked Oklahoma (lost by just 5) and No. 62 Davidson (lost by 9). Give me the Pirates +3.5! |
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12-16-21 | 76ers v. Nets -1.5 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Nets -1.5) Covid has hit Brooklyn really hard and it will have a lot of people thinking is a game that Philly can steal. We have seen it quite a bit here of late in the NBA, where these shorthanded teams cash at the window. Last I checked the Nets will still have the best player on the court with Kevin Durant. If he's on offensively, he can carry a team on his own. He will have some help with Patty Mills, Cam Thomas, Nic Claxton, Kessler Edwards and Blake Griffin all available. The other big thing here is the Nets are catching the 76ers in a pretty tough scheduling spot. Philly was at Memphis on Monday, flew home to take on Miami last night and had to instantly fly right back home for this game. You also have to to look at how that game against the Heat played out. Miami jumped all over them and led by as many as 23 before Philly rallied to tie the game at 96-96 with 1:24 remaining. Only to lose 96-101. It takes a lot of energy playing from behind and it can mess with you mentally pulling off a comeback like that and still not winning. The 76ers are also not at full strength. They got multiple guys out with Covid. I also wouldn't be shocked if Embiid doesn't play. He played 37 mins and is probably not 100% just yet (missed Monday's game with a rib injury). Give me the Nets -1.5! |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 105-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -1.5 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -1.5) No need to overthink this one. Milwaukee will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo and their other All-Star, Khris Middleton is listed as questionable. Having just played 3 games in 4 nights on the road to close out a 4-game road trip, I also wonder just how much energy the Bucks will have in this spot. I also think with a back-to-back on deck Friday/Saturday, it would make sense for them to hold out Middleton. On the flip side, this is a Pacers team that is playing well coming into this game. Indiana is 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS over their last 4 games with the only loss being a mere 2-point setback to the Warriors at home. There is the possibility that the Pacers don't show up with the right mindset against a depleted opponent, but I think it being Milwaukee will have them ready to go. Give me the Pacers -1.5! |
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12-15-21 | Chattanooga +5.5 v. Belmont | 68-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Chattanooga +5.5) I will gladly take my chances here with the Mocs as a 5.5-point dog against rival Belmont. These are two in-state rivals from the state of Tennessee and with how good both teams have been early, this game is going to be a big deal. I just think you got to take the points with Chattanooga in this spot. The Mocs only loss this season is a 2-point setback at home against Charleston. A team they should beat, but you can't win them all. I think we really learned a lot about this team when they went on the road and beat VCU. They also won on the road against a decent Loyola Marymount team. Belmont's resume is equally impressive, but what I think gets overlooked is 4 of the Bruins 8 wins have come by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Mocs +5.5! |
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12-14-21 | Alabama v. Memphis +4 | Top | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Memphis +4) I think we are getting an exceptional price here with Memphis as a 4-point home dog against Alabama. It's the perfect buy low spot on the Tigers. Everyone is jumping off the Tigers' bandwagon after their 72-74 home loss to Murray State as a 4-point favorite for their fourth straight loss. Yes. The Tigers are not the elite team we thought they were going to be, but there's no denying the talent and we know we are going to get their best here against a team like Alabama. On the flip side, I think this is a really tough spot for the Crimson Tide, who are coming off two massive games against No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 14 Houston. Give me Memphis +4! |
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12-14-21 | Raptors +8.5 v. Nets | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Raptors +8.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a 8.5-point dog against the Nets. I took Toronto last night as a 4-point home favorite against the Kings and it was never in doubt. The Raptors won that game 124-101. I like Toronto in this game for a lot of the same reasons. The biggest being this is a team that is playing really good basketball and are underpriced because of how poorly they played in a long stretch before this hot streak. I also love that last night was a blowout, as that negates the poor scheduling spot for Toronto playing on the road with no rest. You also got to love fading a team like the Nets off back-to-back covers. They are such a public team that the books really inflate the numbers after a couple good showings. Give me the Raptors +8.5! |
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12-14-21 | Furman +10.5 v. North Carolina | 61-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Furman +10.5) I will follow the money and back Furman as a 10.5-point dog against North Carolina. The betting public is all over North Carolina in this game, yet this line has dropped from the opening number of 12 to as low as 10 in some spots. Big money is on the Paladins and it's easy to see why. This is a talented Furman team and we know they are going to give it all they got here against a program like North Carolina. I don't know that the Tar Heels are going to be anywhere close to as invested in this game. UNC is feeling really good about themselves after 4 straight wins and have a massive game against UCLA in Saturday's neutral site showdown in Las Vegas. Give me the Paladins +10.5! |
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12-13-21 | Bucks v. Celtics | Top | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Celtics PK) I love the Celtics at a pick at home against the Bucks tonight. The betting public is going to be all over Milwaukee with how well the Bucks have been playing. Milwaukee has won 12 of their last 14. They have gone 7-3-1 ATS over their last 11 and are off a blowout win and cover against the Knicks last time out. The key here is the spot. The Bucks win over New York came on Sunday and now have to go to Boston on no rest. It's also their 3rd road game in 4 nights. On the flip side, this Boston team is undervalued coming into this game off 3 straight losses. Reason to believe the Celtics will be better here coming off 2 days of rest and are expected to get back a big piece to their offense in Jaylen Brown. Give me the Celtics PK! |
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12-12-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Lakers | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS KNOCKOUT (Magic +11.5) I will roll the dice with the Magic as a double-digit road dog against the Lakers on Sunday. The Lakers come in off a dominating 116-95 win at OKC on Friday, which was quite the turnaround from the night before when LA lost 95-108 at Memphis. I just don't think one good showing doesn't mean this Lakers team is anything to write home about. This is a team that has struggled to bring the intensity against bad teams and this is one of those spots where I think they let a bad Magic team hang around and make a game of it. It will certainly help if LA is without one of their best players in Anthony Davis, who is questionable with a knee injury. The big problem with the Lakers not treating every game the same, is the fact that they almost always get the best out of whoever they play. So while it's not the most ideal scheduling spot for the Magic, I expect them to give it all they got. Lakers are just 6-14 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-30 ATS in their last 46 at home dating back to last year. LA is also a mere 2-15 ATS last 17 after allowing 95 or fewer points and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 off a win by 10 or more. Give me Orlando +11.5! |
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12-12-21 | Oregon v. Stanford +1 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Stanford +1) I will back the Cardinal at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Ducks. This Oregon team has been one of the most overvalued teams in the country early on. The Ducks have been a favorite in every game but one (+5 on neutral vs Houston) and yet are just 5-4. They have gone just 2-7 ATS and are 0-4 ATS away from home. Stanford is a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season and that's not a big surprise, as they have one of the best home court advantages. Eventually the books are going to price the Ducks based on the talent they have this year and not what they have done in the past, but until they do they have to be a team you look to fade. Give me the Cardinal +1! |
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12-11-21 | Rockets +8 v. Grizzlies | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Rockets +8) We took a brutal beat on the Rockets Friday, as Houston was outscored 33-19 in the 4th quarter to lose by 9 when we had them at +8. As tough as that is to swallow, I got to go right back with Houston as a similarly priced dog at Memphis on Saturday. Not only are we getting a great price on a Rockets team that is playing way above their current record, but this a huge flat spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies just pulled off a big upset on Thursday, as they defeated the Lakers without both Morant and Brooks. You could see how much that game meant to Memphis. It's going to be near impossible for them to play with that same energy against a team like Houston that no one is getting up to play. Not to mention this will be the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights. The legs just aren't going to be there. Give me the Rockets +8! |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +5 | 123-98 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Wizards +5) I'll roll the dice with the Wizards as a 5-point home dog against the Jazz on Saturday. Most will look to lay the short number with Utah, as the Jazz come into this game having won 6 in a row and last time we saw Utah they destroyed the 76ers 118-96 as a mere 3-point road favorite. I just think it's a bad spot for the Jazz, who will be playing their 4th straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. It's also the last time they will play on the road until after Christmas, so there's reason to be excited about getting this one over and getting on a plane back home. I know the Wizards have slowed down some from their great start to the season, but they snapped a 3-game losing streak last time out and are as healthy as they have been this season. I actually think they win this game outright. Give me Washington +5! |
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12-11-21 | St Bonaventure v. Connecticut -3.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (UConn -3.5) I will gladly lay the 3.5-points with UConn on a neutral floor against St. Bonaventure. I really like this Huskies team and I think we are getting them in a good buy low spot after a loss last time out at West Virginia. Morgantown is one of the toughest places in the country for opposing teams to play, so I'm not worried about that result, especially since they only lost by 3. The only other loss for UConn is a 4-point loss to Michigan State on a neutral floor. No disrespect to St Bonaventure, who has been impressive in their 7-1 start, but this is by far the best team they will have played this season and I just think the talent gap will be too much for them to overcome. Give me UConn -3.5! |
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12-11-21 | Drake +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 80-90 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Drake +2.5) I love Drake as a 2.5-point dog against Clemson on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral site at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. My numbers actually have the Bulldogs as the team that should be favored in this matchup. Drake came into the season as a legit NCAA Tournament caliber team and while it's not a sure thing after their slow start, this is still one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs could easily be 7-1 and even 8-0. They had a 5-point loss to Belmont, 9-point loss to Alabama and a 3-point loss to North Texas. Clemson started out the season 4-0 behind a soft schedule and as the competition has picked up they have faded. The Tigers have lost 4 of 5. Clemson's struggles continue. Give me Drake +2.5! |
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12-11-21 | Arkansas v. Oklahoma -1.5 | 66-88 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma -1.5) I will roll the dice with the Sooners as a slim 1.5-point against Arkansas. This is all about the line, as we got an unranked Oklahoma team listed as the favorite against the undefeated and No. 12 ranked Razorbacks. I'm not dissing Arkansas and their 9-0 start, but you can't look at their strong start without looking at the fact that they have played the 316th easiest schedule in the country so far. The only two teams they have played that are ranked in the Top 100 are No. 66 K-State and No. 69 Cincinnati. They won both but didn't dominate either game. Oklahoma comes in at No. 43 and could easily be 9-0 themselves, as they have a 3-point loss to Utah State and a 4-point OT loss to Butler. Give me Oklahoma -1.5! |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -4.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Early Bird ATS MASSACRE (Ohio State -4.5) I will gladly lay the 4.5-point at home with Ohio State at home against Wisconsin. I love to back home teams as a short favorite or dog in the Big Ten, as I think there's just a massive home court edge in that conference. Ohio State didn't get off to the best of starts, but it feels like that big come from behind win over Duke a couple weeks back really sparked this team. The Buckeyes opened up Big Ten play last Sunday with an impressive 12-point road win over Penn State. I like this Wisconsin team, but I don't love the spot at all. Badgers played a big game last Saturday at home against Marquette and then opened up Big Ten play at home against Indian a on Wednesday. Wisconsin won and covered against the Hoosiers in a 64-59 win as a 4.5-point favorite, but really should have lost that game outright. I think they struggle here on the road on just 2 days of rest. Give me the Buckeyes -4.5! |
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12-10-21 | Celtics +5.5 v. Suns | 90-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Celtics +5.5) I will gladly roll the dice with Boston catching 5.5 on the road against the Suns in Friday's last NBA game on the board. It's not so much that I want to bet the Celtics right now, as it is I want to bet against Phoenix. The Suns instantly became one of the bigger public plays when they went on that ridiculous 18-game win streak. While that streak was snapped in a loss at the Warriors, they did get right back in the win column the next game, beating the Spurs 108-104 at home. However, they didn't cover in that spot as a 7.5-point favorite and despite being 11-1 SU in their last 12 games, they are just 4-8 ATS during this run. The other big thing is this is not the same Suns team that went on that big win streak with their best player, Devin Booker, out with a hamstring injury. I feel good about the Celtics showing up here and wouldn't be shocked at all if they won outright. Give me Boston +5.5! |
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12-10-21 | Bucks v. Rockets +8 | Top | 123-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockets +8) I love the Rockets catching 8 at home against the Bucks on Friday. I just think this is a tough spot for Milwaukee. Even with Houston coming into this game on a 7-game win streak, it's going to be hard for the Bucks to get up for this game. I think even more so with a game against the Knicks on deck at Madison Square Garden (Sunday). On the flip side of this, I think you got to ride out the hot streak with the Rockets until they give us a reason not to, especially if they keep getting priced like they are one of the worst teams in the league. They just beat the Nets 114-104 as a 3.5-point home dog in their last game. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games vs a team that's got a winning percentage under 40%. Rockets have covered 5 in a row as a dog and are 4-0 last 4 at home when catching points. Give me Houston +8! |
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12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets | 123-124 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Kings PK) I like the Kings quite a bit as a pick'em on the road against the Hornets. Sacramento's not a team you want to be backing a lot on the road at this kind of price, but it's just too good a spot to pass up. Charlotte is decimated right now because of Covid. They got 5 guys out, including 3 starters in point guard LaMelo Ball, shooting guard Terry Rozier and center Mason Plumlee. They are also out back-up point guard Ish Smith and Rozier is the guy listed third on the PG depth chart. I just think because they were able to cover back-to-back games at home against the 76ers without those guys has created some false hope. Philly's playing better with Embiid back, but they are far from playing their best basketball. Sacramento has been up and down this season and the important thing right now is they are on the upswing. Kings have won and covered each of their last 3 games and a big part of that is they are healthy. Give me Sacramento PK! |
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12-09-21 | Iowa -3.5 v. Iowa State | 53-73 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -3.5) It's one thing to see an unranked team laying points against a ranked opponent when they are at home. It's another when it's on the road. The betting public is flocking to back undefeated an No. 17 ranked Iowa State in this game, yet Iowa is the favorite at -3.5. I will gladly fade the public in this spot and lay it with the Hawkeyes. No question this Cyclones team is WAY better than expected. This is more about the matchup and the fact that I think this Iowa team is also WAY better than everyone expected. As far as the matchup. The Cyclones have lived off of their defense to their 8-0 start. They have been outstanding at forcing turnovers (at least 14 in every game, 20+ 4x). Couple things with that. Out of the 8 teams ISU has played, 7 hace come against teams who rank outside the Top 25 in offensive TO%. The Iowa Hawkeyes rank No. 1 in that department. ISU's defense has also not been tested by even a good 3-point shooting team. Prior to this game the best 3P% offense they have faced is Grambling St at No. 119. The Hawkeyes come in at No. 44. Iowa also by far has the best player on the floor in Keegan Bradley. This guy has done the near impossible and filled the massive shoes left by Luka Garza. One weakness Iowa has is post defense, which we saw in the Illinois game. ISU doesn't have a guy like Kofi Cockburn. Give me the Hawkeyes -3.5! |
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12-09-21 | Lakers -3 v. Grizzlies | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Lakers -3) I'll gladly take my chances with the Lakers as a slim 3-point road favorite against a Grizzlies team that is still playing without Ja Morant and will be in the second leg of a back-to-back. Not only are they on no rest, it's their third game in 4 nights. Lakers were off on Wednesday and their only game since last Friday is a home game against the Celtics on Tuesday. It will be just LA's 2nd game in 6 days. That's a huge rest edge this time of a year. This also feels like a rare time the public perception is down with this team. Lakers are still a big public play when they are bad, there's just not the hype we normally would see that would result in this line being a lot more. LA is not only rested, but they are also as healthy as they have been all year and have been playing better, winning 3 of their last 4. Offensively this team is rolling, shooting 50% or better in 5 straight. Give me the Lakers -3! |
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12-08-21 | Marquette v. Kansas State -1 | 64-63 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -1) I like the value here with Kansas State as a slim 1-point home favorite against Marquette. The Golden Eagles got off to that great start with wins over Illinois, Ole Miss and West Virginia, but they have since lost by 16 on a neutral site to St Bonaventure and by 13 at Wisconsin. K-State is coming off an impressive win over Wichita State on the road and their only two blemishes came to Arkansas and Illinois, who are both ranked in the Top 25. Neither of those were at home, where the Wildcats have one of the bigger home court edges in the country. I like the Wildcats to win this one. Give me K-State -1! |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -3.5) I'll take my chances with Memphis laying 3.5 at home against the Mavs. The Grizzlies aren't a better team long-term without Ja Morant, but there's no denying they have played some of their best basketball since he was lost to a knee injury. Memphis comes in having won and cover 5 in a row. Hard to not like the Grizzlies in this spot, as they couldn't be catching the Mavs at a better team. Dallas is in a major shooting slump, having scored fewer than 100 points in 3 straight and not shot better than 41% from the field in any of those games. Mavs will be playing on no rest after laying it all on the line in a 99-102 loss at Brooklyn last night. It will be the second back-to-back for Dallas in the last 6 days and they have to deal with the travel to Memphis after playing at home last night. Give me the Grizzlies -3.5! |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs -2.5) I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago was able to win and cover shorthanded at home against the Nuggets, but I don't think they are going to be able to replicate that on the road against what has arguably been the most underrated teams in the Cavs. The main guy the Bulls won't have is DeMar DeRozan, but they also are without 3 key reserves in Alex Caruso, Javonte Green and Coby White. They also continue to play without starter Patrick Williams. Cavs are 17-6 ATS on the season, which tells you just how little respect this team has been getting. Cleveland has covered 7 of their last 8 and are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when they do get that respect and are listed as a favorite. Give me the Cavs -2.5! |
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12-08-21 | Connecticut v. West Virginia -2.5 | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (W Virginia -2.5) I will gladly lay the short number with West Virginia at home against UConn. The books are telling you all you need to know with this one. You have the No. 15 ranked Huskies as a dog agaisnt an unranked Mountaineers team. This is all about home court for me, as well as the fact that the Huskies are not at full strength. West Virginia's only blemish on the record is a neutral site loss to Marquette in a game where they played with no ret. Give me the Mountaineers -2.5! |
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12-08-21 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Wisconsin -4.5) I'll take the Badgers as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Home court is huge in the Big Ten and I just think the Hoosiers are getting a little too much love after their 7-1 start. Indiana's only road game was at Syracuse, which they lost in 2OT. The Badgers are a much better team than the Orange and are going to be extremely motivated here in their Big Ten opener. I just don't trust that Indiana offense on the road against a top tier team like Wisconsin. Give me the Badgers -4.5! |
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12-07-21 | Villanova -8.5 v. Syracuse | 67-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Villanova -8.5) I'm going to lay it with Villanova against Syracuse at Madison Square Garden. The betting public is all over Syracuse in this game and I'm more than willing to fade a public dog, especially in a big game like this that we know is getting a lot of action. I get Syracuse comes in off back-to-back wins over Florida State and Indiana, but I'm not so sure either of those teams are as good as what we thought and they were lucky to win both.I just think the Orange are really limited on the defensive end. THis team has given up 80 or more in 4 of their last 6. Now they face a Villanova offense that ranks No. 4 in the country in offensive efficiency. Syracuse can score, but not enough to keep it close. Give me Villanova -8.5! |
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12-07-21 | Knicks v. Spurs +2.5 | 121-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Spurs +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 2.5-point home dog against the Knicks. Public will be all over New York at this price, which definitely makes San Antonio that much more enticing. This just feels like a flat spot for New York in their schedule. They just played a bunch of big games and have to go play the Spurs, Pacers, and Raptors on a 3 game road trip before returning home to host the Bucks and Warriors in consecutive games. As for San Antonio, the Spurs have finally put together an extended stretch of strong play. SA has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games. I like them to find a way to win this game outright. Give me the Spurs +2.5! |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -3.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Vols as a slim 3.5-point favorite against Texas Tech, as the two face off in New York at Madison Square Garden. I really like what I've seen out of this Tennessee team early on. They had a bad showing against Villanova, but have since beat up on the likes of UNC (89-72) and Colorado (69-54). I think this team is the real deal. I don't think the same of the Red Raiders, who had started out 6-0 before losing at Providence last time out. I just think this team is a bit overvalued based on what they did under former head coach Chris Beard, who is now calling the shots at rival Texas. Prior to losing to Providence, Tech's 6-0 start was aided by playing 6 teams ranked outside the Top 240. Give me the Vols -3.5! |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nuggets +4.5) I like the value we are getting with the Nuggets as 4.5-point road dog against the Bulls tonight. This is a bad spot for Chicago coming off that big win at Brooklyn, where they outscored the Nets 32-25 in the 4th to win 111-107. Not only is this a big flat spot for the Bulls, they won't have one of their top bench players in Alex Caruso. He can really be the spark that gets this team through these bad scheduling spots. I also think it's a good time to buy low on Denver. Nuggets are just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, but have won 2 of 3 on their current 7-game road trip. Both times winning outright as dogs at Miami and most recently at the Knicks 113-99 as a 2.5-point dog. Give me Denver +4.5! |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -2.5) This is too good a price to pass up with the Hawkeyes at home. This Iowa team is way better than expected after not only losing the player of the year in Garza (NBA), but also second and fourth leading scorers in Wieskamp (NBA) and Fredrick (transferred to Kentucky). They had started out 7-0 before losing Friday at Purdue 70-77. While a loss is a loss, that was without their best player in Keegan Murray, who has been one of the most productive players in the entire country. That's also against a Purdue team that is a legit Final Four caliber team. The game before they put up 75 on the road against Virginia in a win. The key here is Murray is expected to play and with him I think they are going to have no problem winning this game at home against an Illinois team that I don't think is as good as what people thought they would be. Give me the Hawkeyes -2.5! |
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12-05-21 | Arizona v. Oregon State +12 | 90-65 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Oregon State +12) I'll take my chances with the Beavers as a 12-point home dog against Arizona. I just think we are getting too good a price to pass up with Oregon State as they are being way undervalued due to the fact that they are 1-7 and have lost 7 straight since opening their season with a win over Portland State. Big thing is most of these losses for the Beavers have come against quality teams and several of those games could have went their way. This team is due for a breakout win and while I don't if they get it here, I think they are going to give Arizona all they can handle. Wildcats are sitting at 6-0 and have looked impressive to this point, but they will be playing their first true road game of the season. Not only that, but I think we could see a bit of a sloppy showing here from Arizona. The Wildcats only game in the last two weeks was a cupcake game against No. 311 ranked Sacramento State last Saturday. Give me the Beavers +12! |
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12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs +4.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cavs +4.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 4.5-point home dog against the Jazz on Sunday. Cleveland continues to be way undervalued by the books. Cavs come into this one having won 4 straight and covered 6 in a row, improving their overall ATS record to 16-5 on the season. They have covered 7 of 10 at home. I not only think they cover here against Utah, but I like them to win the game outright. Jazz have looked great in their last 3 games, especially offensively, but all 3 of those games came at home against teams who are not exactly playing great defense. Cavs have been out to prove something against the better teams and are 10-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Give me Cleveland +4.5! |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS KNOCKOUT (Kings PK) I will gladly take my chances with the Kings as a pick'em at home against the Clippers. Not only do I love that this line is begging the public to take LA, but we are also getting the Clippers in a great fade spot. This is a huge letdown spot for Los Angeles after last night's thrilling 119-115 win over the Lakers. There's not a team the Clippers want to beat more than their cross-town rivals and it meant that much more with James playing for the Lakers. I expect to see a very flat Clippers team on no rest against a very hungry Kings team that is trying to get their season on track. Sacramento just won 124-115 at the Clippers on Wednesday. LA is 0-3 ATS this season in the second game of a back-to-back and 1-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Give me the Kings PK! |
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12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | 64-58 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR (Creighton -4.5) Not a lot to think about with this one. Iowa State comes into this game 7-0 and ranked No. 19 in the country and are a 4.5-point dog on the road against an unranked Creighton team. You got to lay it with the Bluejays in this spot. It's been an impressive start to the season for the Cyclones, who caught everyone's attention in the NIT Tip-Off with their two big upset wins over Xavier and Memphis. Clearly this team is better than expected, but I wonder if some of that wasn't those teams overlooking the Cyclones. You can bet those two wins and national ranking will have the attention of Creighton and I just think it's a tough spot for ISU. They play really hard defensively, but the offense is not great and this Bluejays team knows how to put the ball in the hoop. This is also the first true road game for the Cyclones, which is never easy. Give me Creighton -4.5! |
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12-04-21 | Bulls +3.5 v. Nets | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (Bulls +3.5) Got to take a shot with the Bulls in this one. As good as Chicago has been, the betting public can't help themselves when they see Brooklyn as a short favorite, especially at home. I know we are just outside the parameters, but I think it speaks to the play. Nets are 3-5 ATS this season with a line of +3.5 to -3.5 and 0-3 ATS at home in this spot. What the public overlooks with Brooklyn in this spot is the fact that they are playing this game on no rest after a hard fought 110-105 win at home against the Timberwolves last night. Chicago was off Friday and are playing just their second game in the last 5 days. Also, while the Bulls are playing their second straight on the road, there's basically no travel involved with New York to Brooklyn. I just think with the poor bench that the Nets have to work with, it's going to be hard for them to match the intensity of this Bulls team, who feels like they got something to prove every time they face one of the perceived top teams in the league. Give me Chicago +3.5! |
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12-04-21 | USC v. Washington State -1 | 63-61 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Wash St -1) What more do you need to know that the Cougars are the smart bet here than the books have an unranked Washington State team listed as the favorite against undefeated No. 20 USC. Winning on the road is not easy in CBB and the Pac-12 always seems to have a strong home court edge. I also like what I've seen out of this Washington team, who has went from starting out the season ranked No. 63 at KenPom to currently sitting at No. 48. The Cougars are a great defensive team that can really make it tough to score inside. While they don't shoot it great all the time, they are Top 15 in the country in offensive rebounding and are very good at getting to the free throw line. USC has a lot of strengths, but they are one of the worst in the country at forcing turnovers and dreadful at free throws. As a team they are shooting 56.4%! Cougars in comparison shot 75% from the charity line. Give me Washington State -1! |
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12-04-21 | Tennessee v. Colorado +5.5 | 69-54 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Colorado +5.5) I will gladly take my chances with Colorado as a 5.5-point home dog against the Vols today. I just think we are getting great line value with Buffalo because of the fact that Tennessee comes in ranked #13 and the Buffaloes are not in the Top 25. I think Colorado has a very underrated team this year and we saw some flashes of that in their last game when they went on the road and only lost by 12 to a really good UCLA team. The big difference with this game, is they get a good Tennessee at home. Colorado has one of the best home court advantages in the country and this will be the Vols first true road game of the season. Would not surprise me at all if the Buffaloes won this game outright. Give me Colorado +5.5! |
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12-04-21 | Memphis v. Ole Miss +1 | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS BLOWOUT (Ole Miss +1) This line is screaming to the public to take No. 18 Memphis as a mere 1-point road favorite against an unranked Ole Miss team. I'll gladly go the other way and back this Rebels team at home. This is a good Rebels team under head coach Kermit Davis. They are off to a 6-2 to start with their only two losses coming on the road against Marquette and Boise State, who are two teams ranked inside the Top 80. Memphis came into the season with a lot of hype, but they have lost their last two, falling 59-78 to ISU and 79-82 to Georgia. The Tigers like to play fast, but they also play sloppy. They rank 349th in TO%. Ole Miss in comparison ranks 48th. Hard to win on the road when you lose the turnover battle. The other big thing is the Rebels have a great interior defense, as they are 24th in the country in 2P% defense. Memphis isn't a big 3-pt shooting team. If the Rebels can get back and not let the Tigers run, they should make it really tough on Memphis to score. Give me Ole Miss +1! |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 158.5 | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 158.5) This might be a little bit of a square play taking a public OVER with a high total, but I just don't think 158.5 is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. Everyone knows that Purdue is good. They were expected to be coming in and they are not only scoring 92.4 ppg, they are ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency. Iowa wasn't suppose to be this good. Not after losing two guys to the NBA, including the player of the year in Garza. They are and it's because they got another NBA caliber guy shouldering the load in sophomore Keegan Murray, who is averaging 24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg and 2.3 bpg. The Hawkeyes offense is averaging 94.0 ppg and are No.3 in the country in offensive efficiency. I did have some concern whether the offense was just beating up on bad teams, but to go on the road and put up 75 points on 54% shooting against a defensive minded Virginia team (Cavs hadn't given up 70 in a game prior to that) tells me their offense is the real deal. The other big thing is Iowa's defense let a bad Virginia offense score 74 and shoot 53%. That's concerning given that was the first offense they had faced this year that ranked inside the Top 220 in offensive efficiency (Virginia is No. 78). Purdue is going to score at will. Give me the OVER 158.5! |
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12-03-21 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Mavs | 107-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Pelicans +7.5) We cashed an ugly play on the Pistons +13 last night, as we faded the Suns off that big win over the Warriors. It's not quite the same with this play, but I like the Pelicans catching 7.5 in this one. These two teams just played at New Orleans on Wednesday and the Mavs won that game in a blowout 139-107. Not only did they win big, they set a franchise record for shooting, connecting on 68.7% of their shot attempts. That's absurd good and any time a team has a record-setting performance like that, it's really hard to live up that hype in that next game out. I also think them playing the same team they just annihilated takes away some competitive fight, while it gives a little more motivation to the Pelicans with revenge on the table. Mavs are just 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons priced as home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 7-20 ATS last 27 at home off a road win. Give me the Pelicans +7.5! |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +13 v. Suns | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money Vegas Insider (Pistons +13) This is a plug your nose play, as this Pistons team is awful, but I just have to bet against the Suns at this price in this spot. Phoenix is in a MASSIVE letdown spot. In their last two games they have went on the road and beat the Nets and then returned home to beat the Warriors. The most impressive in the win over Golden State is they did it with their star, Devin Booker, leaving the game early. Booker won't play in this game and I just think it's going to be really tough for the Suns to get up for this game against this Detroit team. As bad as the Pistons are, they have covered 4 of their last 5 when catching double-digits and I think they will be up here with that Suns win streak in play. Give me the Pistons +13! |
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12-02-21 | St. Mary's v. Utah State +1.5 | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Utah St +1.5) We cashed a couple of home dogs last night on the college hardwood and I think we are going to do the same here with the Aggies as a small home dog against St. Mary's. I just think this Gaels team is bit overvalued after their 7-1 start. The Gaels got what looks like a couple of impressive wins on a neutral floor against Notre Dame and Oregon, but neither of those teams have looked that great to start the year. This will also be their first true road game of the season, which I think is a tricky spot, especially when it's against a quality team. I believe Utah State is that. The Aggies had a bad loss at home to UC Davis to open the year, but have won 6 straight since and two of those wins are against Richmond and Oklahoma. I think the wrong team is favored. Give me Utah State +1.5! |
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12-01-21 | Michigan v. North Carolina +2.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (UNC +2.5) I'll take my chances with the Tar Heels as a slim 2.5-point home dog against the Wolverines. I'm just not so sure the Wolverines should be favored on the road here. I just think Michigan was viewed so highly coming in, that they still are the team trust more. I see them as equals. UNC's only two losses are to Purdue and Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Boilermakers look like one of the best teams in the country and the Vols only loss is to Villanova. Michigan's also 4-2, but their two losses aren't nearly as good. They lost at home to Seton Hall and got destroyed on a neutral site by Arizona. Give me the Tar Heels +2.5! |
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12-01-21 | Florida v. Oklahoma +1 | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma +1) I will take my chances with the Sooners as a short home dog against the Gators. I think home court has proven to be a big thing in these bigger non-conference games and I'm not so sure Oklahoma isn't the better team. I know they lost on a neutral site to Utah State, but it was by just 3 points and that's a good Aggies team. Florida is 6-0 and have what looks like two big wins over FSU and Ohio State. I'm not sold on either of those teams being as good as what people think and that's with the Buckeyes big win over Duke last night. This will be there first true road game of the season in one of the tougher places to play. Give me Oklahoma +1! |
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12-01-21 | Northern Iowa -4.5 v. Bradley | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH (UNI -4.5) I love the Panthers laying a mere 4.5 points on the road against Bradley. It couldn't have been a much worse start to the season for UNI, wh lost 3 of their first 4. We knew this team was better than that and they showed some of that in their 13-point loss to Arkansas (led 75-72 with 4:25 left in the 2nd half). They then went on the road in a true road game and beat a really good St. Bonaventure team 90-80. I just feel like now is the time you want to be on this team. Bradley is definitely a team they can not just beat, but handle pretty easily. The Braves are 2-5 with their two wins coming against a non D-I school in Missouri S&T and No. 349 ranked Maine. They got no business making a game of it. Give me UNI -4.5! |
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12-01-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Heat | 111-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money SHARP STAKE (Cavs +6.5) I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 6.5-point road dog against the Heat. When Cleveland has been at or close to full strength, they have really played well. They have been one of the biggest moneymakers of the season going 14-5-2 ATS. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their 10 road games and just won 114-96 as a 6.5-point dog at Dallas. This is a hungry young team that wants to show they belong and I see them really being up for this game against Miami. As for the Heat, they all kinds of injury problems. Both Adebayo and Butler are questionable and it just feels like Miami is going thru a stretch where they are just going through the motions. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after starting out 12-4 ATS in their first 16 games. Give me the Nuggets +6.5! |
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12-01-21 | Nuggets v. Magic +7.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Magic +7.5) I'm going to take the 7.5 with the Magic at home against the Nuggets. This just feels like too many for a Nuggets team that isn't playing great to be laying on the road. Denver did just beat the Heat 120-111 on the road, but Miami didn't have Butler or Herro. Prior to that win the Nuggets had gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Denver won't have Austin Rivers, have lost Michael Porter Jr and PJ Dozier for the season and are still waiting on Jamaal Murray to make his season debut. As bad as the Magic have been, they did show some fight in their last game, only losing by 5 at Philly and they are getting back one of their best players in Cole Anthony from injury. Give me the Magic +7.5! |
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11-30-21 | Warriors +2.5 v. Suns | 96-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-Brainer (Warriors +2.5) This was going to be a big game when these two played no matter what. It was going to be the Warriors first crack at the defending Western Conference Champs. It's just been taken to another level with how well these two teams are playing. The Suns haven't lost since losing to the Kings on Oct. 27th. They have won 16 in a row. The Warriors are 14-1 over their last 15 games. I like this Suns team, but I like the Warriors a lot more. I think Golden State will be the team to beat come the playoffs, assuming Klay Thompson makes a healthy return. I'll take the points with what I feel is the better team, especially knowing we are going to get the Warriors' best. Other big key here is that it's not a horrible scheduling spot. Warriors did play at LA on Sunday, but they were home for the previous three and this is just their second game in four days. Give me the Warriors +2.5! |
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11-30-21 | Northwestern v. Wake Forest -1 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Wake Forest -1) I'll take my chances with the Demon Deacons as a slim 1-point home favorite against Northwestern. I just think when you dissect this Wildcats team, they are probably a little overvalued right now. Northwestern is 5-1 and ranked No. 40 in KenPom, but what have they done. They started out 4-0 against a bunch of bad teams (all ranked 266th or worse), lost 72-77 to Providence (trailed 37-55 11:22 left in 2nd half) on a neutral floor and beat a bad Georgia team. Wake Forest is 6-1 and only ranked No. 90. They too started off with an easy schedule, but they did get a neutral site win against Oregon State and lost to a really good LSU team. I also think Wake has one of the best home court advantages in not just the ACC but the country. Give me the Demon Deacons -1! |
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11-30-21 | Knicks +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks +6.5) I'll take the 6.5 with the Knicks against the Nets. I just think the number is a little high. Brooklyn being such a public team plays a part. So does the fact that the Knicks are just 4-5 over their last 9 and the news with this team is centered around how Kemba Walker is all but done in the Big Apple. Thibs benched Walker in place of Alec Burks in their last game and they went on the road and beat the Hawks 97-90. Keep in mind Atlanta was arguably playing their best ball coming in, as they had won 7 straight. They also hadn't scored fewer than 110 in any game during that stretch. I don't know about taking him out of the rotation completely, unless they feel pretty good about trading him and they might, but I do think it makes the Knicks better in the short-term. Walker only averaging 11.7 ppg and 3.1 apg. Burks is also a big upgrade defensively and I think we saw that against the Hawks. The Nets are a good team, but they just seem to come up short in the big games against the better teams in this league. We just saw it in their last game at home against the Suns. Not saying they won't win, but I think this a game the entire way. Give me the Knicks +6.5! |
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11-29-21 | Montana v. Oregon -13 | 47-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Oregon -13) I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Ducks as a mere 13-point home favorite against Montana. Oregon has lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in all 4 games, making them a very difficult team for the public to trust right now. Thing is, it's not like they have been losing to bad teams. The losses have come against BYU, St Mary's and Houston. All of which rank in the Top 40 in the country. I get they weren't exactly competitive in those games, but that doesn't mean they can't have their way with a team like Montana. You know the Ducks are going to give everything they got to get back in the win column and this is not a good Montana team. The Grizzlies are 4-2, but all 4 wins have come against a Non Div. I team or a team ranked outside the Top 225. They lost to No. 330 ranked North Dakota and lost by 37 at Mississippi St, who is ranked just 10 spots better than the Ducks. Give me Oregon -13! |
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11-29-21 | Blazers +8 v. Jazz | 107-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Blazers +8) I think this is just too good a price to pass up with the Blazers as a 8-point dog against the Jazz. While Portland does come in off two straight losses, where they failed to cover the spread, they weren't far off in either game and one of those losses was to the Warriors, who are winning and covering on everyone. Prior to these two games the Blazers had won and covered 4 in a row. The biggest thing for me in buying into this Portland team right now, is Damian Lillard is finally starting to play up to his potential after really playing poorly to start the year. I also think Utah's kind of going through the motions right now. The Jazz had failed to cover 3 straight prior to blowing out the Pelicans on Saturday, but keep in mind that was after they lost outright to New Orleans the night before as a 13-point favorite. In the two games prior they only won by 6 as a 12.5 pt favorite vs OKC and lost outright to Memphis as a 11-point favorite. Give me the Blazers +8! |
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11-28-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time. I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else. As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40. I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5! |