Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-23 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 231.5 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Play on Timberwolves/Mavericks OVER 231.5: I just think there's tremendous value with the OVER in Mavs games right now. Dallas, who already had one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Doncic, added one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Kyrie Irving. Everything so far, looks like its going to work. Kyrie is playing amazing and in their first game with Irving/Doncic, the Mavs shot 52% from the field, with 20 made 3-pointers. Key here to the OVER, is while Irving is a nightmare on offense, he's not the best defendender. In that same game, Dallas allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the field, as they lost 128-133 in OT. First game they will be together at home and they are facing a Timberwolves team that is giving up 116.8 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 123.4 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games. Feels like a game where the Mavs can easily hit 130 points. That alone should have this total in the 240s. Give me the OVER 231.5! |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina -4.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT Play on North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5: I think this is a fair price and even better spot to lay it with North Carolina at home against Miami. It just feels to me like the Tar Heels have went through the motions for the first 3+ months of the season. Which is why they have been so inconsistent. It could plague them all season, but teams can flip a switch. Prime example of that would be Baylor in the Big 12. It's do or die time for the Tar Heels and I think the 3-game losing streak to start February will end up being the turning point of their season. All 3 of those games could have went their way. Had they, this team would be on a 9-game winning streak and 14-2 run over their last 16. They bounced back with a 20-point thrashing of Clemson on Saturday. I just like them to stay hot, especially at home. Miami is a good team, but they really haven't been tested on the road. This will be just their 2nd true road game vs a team ranked in the Top 60 at KenPom since playing at UCF (No. 57) back around Thanksgiving. Give me North Carolina -4.5! |
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02-11-23 | Bulls v. Cavs UNDER 224 | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NBA Over/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER PLAY ON BULLS/CAVS UNDER 224: I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224 in Saturday's division matchup between the Bulls and Cavaliers. Last time these two teams played it was an all-out shootout with Donovan Mitchell scoring 71 points in a 145-134 Cavs win. That was an outlier in this series. The two teams had played each 2 days prior and combined for just 205 points. The previous 6 meetings in the series had all saw 124 or fewer points. Cleveland definitely won't be looking to push the pace in this one, as they will be in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a late tip-off (10:00 EST) at New Orleans on Friday. It will also be the Cavs 5th game in 7 days. You have to think Cleveland will be looking to play this game at a snails pace. Which is saying something for the team that ranks dead last in pace. I also don't like this matchup for Chicago's offense. The Bulls do the majority of their scoring inside the 3-point line. That plays right into the strength of this Cleveland defense. Chicago also hasn't looked in sync offensively of late, scoring just 89 in a blowout loss at Memphis on Tuesday and then 105 at Brooklyn on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 224! |
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02-11-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 62-61 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -2.5: I love the Wolverines as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Indiana on Saturday. Perfect time to sell-high on the Hoosiers, who are coming off two huge home wins over Purdue and Rutgers. They are also 7-1 over their last 8 games. Thing is, most of that success came at home (5 of the 7 wins) and one of the road wins was against Minnesota. Last time they played on the road, they lost by 11 at Maryland. This is also a team that has lost on the road by 19 at Penn State, 22 at Kansas and by 15 at Rutgers. This might not be a top tier Michigan team, but one that I think is better than it gets credit for. Wolverines are 8-5 in Big 10 play. They come in having won 3 straight. Of their 5 conference losses, three have come by 6 or fewer and one was a 9-point loss at Iowa in OT (should have won in regulation). Their only loss at home in Big Ten play is a 5-point loss to Purdue. This is simply way too good a price to pass up with Michigan. Give me the Wolverines -2.5! |
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02-11-23 | Alabama v. Auburn +2.5 | 77-69 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON AUBURN TIGERS +2.5: I really like this spot for Auburn and believe they are going to win this game outright. Neville Arena is not an easy place to win at and I expect the home crowd to be electric with the No. 3 ranked Crimson Tide coming to town. Yes, Auburn has lost 4 of their last 5, but 3 of those losses came on the road by 5 or fewer points. People forget this team was 16-3 to start the year. Nothing against Alabama, who is a very good basketball team, but they haven't looked nearly as good on the road as they have at home. Might sound crazy for a team that is 5-0 in SEC road games this year, but the numbers back it up. In their last 2 road games they got annihilated 93-69 by Oklahoma and only beat a bad LSU team by 10. Never led by more than 12 the entire game. I like the Tigers to step up and get a signature win to solidify their Tournament status. Give me Auburn +2.5! |
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02-10-23 | Mavs +2 v. Kings | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON DALLAS MAVERICKS +2: I want to bet the Mavs right now. I think people are really sleeping on the Kyrie Irving addition, especially after the Durant deal stole the headlines. Irving is a headcase and could derail this thing at any point, but right now it's all good. Irving is an ELITE basketball player and was outstanding in his Dallas debut Wednesday, scoring 24 points in a 110-104 road win against the Clippers, who had their big two of Kawhi and George. That was without Luka, who has missed the last 3 games. However, it feels optimistic that Luka could return for this game. If it clicks between Irving and Doncic, this offense is going to be hard to stop. Kings have established themselves as a legit playoff team in the west, but it's not been their best stretch of basketball coming into this game. Yes, they have won their last two, but both of those were against a tanking Rockets team. They are just 4-4 in their last 8 with those 2 wins and the other two were against the T-Wolves and another tanking team in the Spurs. Kings are also in a bit of a flat spot. They just finished up a 7-game road trip on Wednesday and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Give me the Mavs +2! |
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02-10-23 | Suns v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON THE INDIANA PACERS -1.5: The Suns were the big winners of the trade deadline, landing Durant from the Nets. They are now the favorites to make the Finals out of the West. I think it has them overvalued in the betting market tonight. Durant isn't playing until after the All-Star break, Booker is expected back after sitting the first of a back-to-back, but he's still being eased back from a groin injury that cost him more than a month. They gave away two huge rotation pieces in Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges. Of the 9 guys that saw minutes last night, 5 played more than 30 minutes. It's a getaway game with it being the last of a long 5-game road trip east. The big reason there's value here, is because of how bad Indiana looks on paper right now. The Pacers are just 2-13 over their last 15 games. That's just two wins in more than a months time. A lot of that losing came without their best player in Haliburton. He's back and should be back close to 100%. Indiana as a team should also be real fresh here. This is just their 2nd game in 5 days. They should be extremely motivated here and that should be enough to get them the win. Give me the Pacers -1.5! |
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02-09-23 | Iowa v. Purdue -8 | Top | 73-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON PURDUE BOILERMAKERS -8: This might seem like a steep price to lay on Purdue against an Iowa team that comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 games. Big thing to note about this 7-2 stretch, is 6 of the 7 wins came at home, where Iowa is just a different team. Iowa is shooting 45.8% from the field and 35.2% from deep in all games this season, yet are only connecting on 40.7% from the field and 29.3% from deep away from home. They just aren't a great 3-point shooting team and aren't going to get any easy looks inside against Purdue and 7-4 big man Zach Edey. I also love this spot for the Boilermakers. Not only is Purdue going to be motivated coming off a loss at Indiana, but I got to think there's some want back against the Hawkeyes after losing to them in last year's Big 10 Tournament Championship Game. Boilermakers really dominated both meetings in the regular-season last year. They won by 10 at Iowa in a game they led by 20 in the 2nd half. They did win by just 7 at home, but in that game by 19 with under 10 minutes to go. They should have no problem winning here by 10 or more. Give me Purdue -8! |
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02-08-23 | Wolves v. Jazz -5 | 143-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON UTAH JAZZ -5: I'll take my chances with the Jazz as a slim 5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is in a brutal back-to-back, having played at Denver last night and now at Utah. I also think the Timberwolves are a bit overvalued on the road right now. Minnesota comes into this game having won 13 of their last 20, but 11 of those wins came at home and the two road wins were against an awful Rockets team and a depleted Pelicans team. I also feel like this is a good spot to buy low on the Jazz, who are coming off home losses to Atlanta and Dallas. Utah is still a very strong 18-11 at home this season. Jazz are 12-4 ATS when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Utah should be able to play this game at their tempo and really push the pace. I don't see Minnesota being able to keep pace offensively. Give me the Jazz -5! |
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02-08-23 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -4 | Top | 79-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS -4: I'll gladly take my chances with Penn State laying 4 at home against the Badgers. Good time to buy low on the Nittany Lions. Penn State is just 5-7 in Big 10 play and have lost 6 of their last 9 overall. Thing is, none of those losses came on their home floor. The 3 wins they did have, all came at home and all were relatively easy wins. They beat Indiana 85-66, Nebraska 76-65 and Michigan 83-61. Wisconsin is also trending in the wrong direction. Badgers are just 2-7 in their last 9. Thing is, it hasn't just been a downfall due to playing a bunch of games on the road. They have 3 home losses during this stretch. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin figure it out on the road against a talented and hungry Penn State squad. Give me the Nittany Lions -4! |
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02-07-23 | TCU v. Kansas State -4.5 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -4.5: I'll gladly take my chances with K-State covering the 4.5 at home against a TCU team that continues to play without their best player, Mike Miles Jr. There will be no overlooking the Horned Frogs for the Wildcats, who I expect to be extremely motivated to take the floor after losing their last 2. They are now just 6-4 in Big 12 play after starting 6-1. Thing is, the 3 losses came against arguably the 3 best teams in the league in ISU, Kansas and Texas. Both teams will be playing this game on short rest, as each will have had just 2 days off following their game on Saturday. I just think it's a much tougher spot for TCU, especially with them missing Miles Jr. Horned Frogs are also playing their 2nd road game in 4 days, where K-State had zero travel with Saturday's game also being at home. Wildcats 11-0 at home before losing by 3 at home to Texas last time out. I don't see them dropping back-to-back games on their home floor. Give me K-State -4.5! |
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02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS -3: I'll gladly take my chances with Michigan State as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Terrapins. It's been a tough go for the Spartans of late. Michigan State is just 2-5 SU over their last 7 games, which I believe has them undervalued in this spot. The Spartans' recent struggles have a lot to do with their schedule. Only 1 of the 5 losses during this stretch came on their home floor and that was a 1-point loss to No. 1 ranked Purdue. Maryland on the other hand comes in way overvalued. Terps are riding a 4-game winning streak. Thing is, 3 of the 4 wins came at home and the lone road win was against a Minnesota team that is 1-11 in Big 10 play. Prior to that win over the Gophers, Maryland 0-5 in Big Ten road games. Give me Michigan State -3! |
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02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic +1.5 | 102-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER PLAY ON ORLANDO MAGIC +1.5: I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 1.5-point home dog against the Knicks on Tuesday. Great spot here to bet against New York. Knicks will be playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 nights after using up a ton of energy rallying from 21-points down to beat the 76ers 108-97 at home last night. The Magic are also a team I'm looking to back in certain spots, as I feel this is a team that is much better than their 22-32 record would suggest. Books have clearly been undervaluing this team of late, as Orlando comes into this game 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. Last time out the Magic won 119-113 on the road against the Hornets as a 2-point dog. Orlando is 12-4 ATS last 16 off an upset win as a dog and 8-8 ATS last 8 off a win by 6 points or less. Give me the Magic +1.5! |
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02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +3 | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER PLAY ON WASHINGTON WIZARDS +3: I'll take my chances with Washington as a slim 3-point home dog against the Cavs. Cleveland was impressive in Sunday's 122-103 win at Indiana. I was on the Pacers in that matchup. Indiana didn't play great, but Cavs also shot the ball extremely well. It wasn't enough for me to look to chase my money on Cleveland. I think this is a bad spot for them in the second on the road in a back-to-back. Let's not forget this a team that is just 11-16 in road games this season. Cleveland is just 1-9 ATS this season in road games when they come in having won 4/5 of their last 6. Wizards come in having lost their last 2, but were very competitive in both losses. They had won 6 straight before losing those last two. This is a team I'm going to be looking to back a lot in the coming weeks, at least until the market catches up on them. Give me Washington +3! |
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02-05-23 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | Top | 122-103 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
10* NBA Central Division PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON INDIANA PACERS +5: This to me is the time to buy big on the Pacers. Indiana is off a win and cover, but are just 2-11 SU over their last 13 games. They also didn't dominate in their win, sneaking out a 107-104 victory against the Kings, so I'm not expecting the public to be crazy about backing them just yet. I think it all adds up to their being some great value here with the Pacers. Most of the losing during their 2-11 stretch, came with star point guard Tyrese Haliburton sidelined. He returned in Thursday's 111-112 loss at home to the Lakers. He was great, scoring 26 points with 12 assists on 46% shooting. He didn't play great offensively in their win over the Kings and yet they still be a good Sacramento team playing on 0 days rest. Keep in mind, prior to Haliburtons injury, Indiana was playing great basketball. This is not going to be an easy game for the Cavs, who are just 10-16 SU on the road this season. Just too much value to pass up. Give me the Pacers +5! |
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02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls -5.5 | 121-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER PLAY ON CHICAGO BULLS -5.5: The Blazers did me dirty on Friday. I had the Wizards -4 at home and they lost 116-124 to Portland, blowing a 20-point lead in the process. Washington scored 69 points in the 1st half and then just 47 in the 2nd half. I'm not going to let that bad beat keep me from fading the Blazers again on Saturday. This is a massive flat spot for Portland, as they will face the tall task of playing the second of a back-to-back road game (3rd road game in 4 nights). Keep in mind those were some taxing minutes they played last night. It takes an enormous effort to come back from a 20-point deficit. Lillard played a team-high 40 minutes, three other starters played 36 or more, while Watford played 30 off the bench. You got to think they will be looking to rest some guys or at the very least limit the minutes of their top guys. Bulls are playing just their second game in 4 days and have had zero travel to deal with. This will be Chicago's third straight game at home. Bulls are 5-2 in their last 7 home games and are 14-3 ATS last 17 at home vs marginal losing teams (WP% between 40% and 49%). Give me Chicago -5.5! |
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02-04-23 | Syracuse -2 v. Boston College | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON SYRACUSE ORANGE -2: I really like the value we are getting with Syracuse at basically a pick'em on the road against Boston College. Homecourt isn't as big a factor in the ACC like it is in the Big 10 and Big 12. It's really all about finding good matchups and spots to back a team. It's why I really like Syracuse in this one. The Orange are just 6-6 in ACC play and have lost 3 straight. All 3 came against teams in the Top 60 with two of those being narrow home losses to UNC and Virginia. BC ranks 168th overall at KenPom. The Eagles have won 3 of their last 4, but only one of those was a somewhat decent win. That being a 62-54 home win over No. 70 Clemson last time out. The other two were wins over No. 157 Notre Dame and No. 293 Louisville. THeir only other win this season over a Top 100 team was a 70-65 OT win at home vs Va Tech back in December. The matchup heavily favors the Orange. To really attack Syracuse's zone, you got to be able to hit from the outside. BC doesn't like to shoot 3's (335th in 3PA/FGA) and don't make many when they do (342nd in 3P%). Eagles have done a nice job generating offense on the break, but Syracuse has one of the top transition defenses in the ACC. I don't think it will be much better for the Eagles defense. Syracuse has won and covered each of the last 5 meetings in this series. Give me the Orange -2! |
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02-04-23 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS -3.5: I took one on the chin betting against Oklahoma State in Tuesday's 71-61 win on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. Cowboys had complete control of that game from the get go. That's now 4 wins in their last 5 games for Oklahoma State with the only loss coming on the road against Texas. TCU comes into this game with the better record and are ranked No. 15 in the country (Oklahoma State not ranked at this time). This might seem like a decent price to back them, even with Mike Miles Jr. out. They won without him in their last game at home against West Virginia. I actually think we are getting a discount here on the Cowboys. The Horned Frogs would be nowhere near a Top 25 team without Miles Jr. and they didn't exactly dominate the Mountaineers without him, winning by just 4 points on their home floor. They did so, shooting 58.3% from inside the 2-pt line. They were a dreadful 2-10 (20%) from behind the 3-pt line. Oklahoma State's 2PT% defense is one of the best in the country. I just don't think the Horned Frogs are going to be able to generate enough offense without Miles Jr to keep this game close at all. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! |
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02-03-23 | Blazers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON WASHINGTON WIZARDS -4: I really like the value we are getting with the Wizards as a 4-point home favorite against the Blazers on Friday. Washington has been rolling of late. Wizards have won 6 straight and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in those games. This team has finally gotten healthy. Because they were so bad early on, the public is slow to get on board, which allows the value to linger with them. I don't think 4 points is a lot to ask them to cover with how well they are playing, especially with this not being an ideal spot for the Blazers. Portland is coming off a big 122-112 win at Memphis as a 5.5-point dog on Wednesday. Solid win, but the Grizzlies aren't at full strength right now. I think they could be a little flat here, especially with this being the first of a back-to-back. Potential for guys to sit out or have their minutes reduced. I also think the Blazers are just a bit overvalued right now. Not only are they off the big upset win, but they have won 4 of their last 5. Those 3 wins were against the Spurs, Jazz and Hawks, all at home. Prior to beating the Grizzlies in Memphis, Portland hadn't won on the road since beating the Rockets in Houston back on Dec. 17! Give me the Wizards -4! |
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02-02-23 | Michigan v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS -3: I'll gladly take my chances with Northwestern as a slim 3-point home favorite against Michigan. Northwestern is coming off what looks to be an ugly 70-86 loss at Iowa, but that game really didn't get away from them until the final 10 minutes. It was 56-57 at the 10 minute mark and then Iowa went on a 29-14 run to end the game. I think it has the Wildcats a bit undervalued here at home against the Wolvines. Northwestern is 10-3 on their home floor this season. Michigan is just 1-5 in true road games with the only win coming against B10 bottom feeders Minnesota. They just lost by 23 on the road to Penn State last time out. Northwestern is also out for revenge from a 78-85 loss at Michigan back on Jan. 15. Wildcats couldn't have started slower in that game, falling behind 20-9 in the first 10 minutes. They would storm back and take the lead by half, but just ran out of gas late, much like they did on the road against Iowa. Look for them to start a lot stronger and maintain that edge at home. Give me the Wildcats -3! |
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02-01-23 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 71-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON OKLAHOMA SOONERS -3.5: I'll take my chances with the Sooners as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against in-state rival Oklahoma State. These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago in Stillwater, with the Cowboys securing an impressive 72-56 win. It was a dreadful 2nd half for Oklahoma in that game, as they led 30-24 at the half. I'm not too concerned about the margin of victory in that one. It really just comes down to home court for me. Oklahoma State has really struggled away from home. They are 0-4 in Big 12 road games and 3 of the 4 losses have come by 8 or more points. Oklahoma is just 2-3 at home in Big 12 play, but their losses have come against 3 of the better teams in the league in Texas, Baylor and Iowa State by a combined 6 points. On Saturday they showed just how good they can be at home in a 93-69 thrashing of then No. 2 Alabama. I think there would be some concern of a letdown off a big win like that it if wasn't Oklahoma State as their opponent, especially having already lost to them earlier this season. I think they come out on fire tonight and that letdown probably comes on Saturday in a game at West Virginia. Give me the Sooners -3.5! |
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02-01-23 | Kings -7.5 v. Spurs | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON SACRAMENTO KINGS -7.5: I got no problem laying the big number on the road with Sacramento, as visit the Spurs on Wednesday night. Kings snapped a 2-game skid with a hard fought 118-111 OT win at Minnesota on Monday. I don't see them having any problem here winning by double-digits. San Antonio has completely fallen flat on their face over the last month. The Spurs have lost 6 straight 2-14 SU over their last 17 games. They have really struggled to keep games close of late. Their last 5 losses have all come by at least 9 points. Most recently losing 106-127 at home to the Wizards as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. These two teams played in San Antonio on Jan. 15 and the Kings won that game 132-119, despite trailing 63-64 at the half. They were only a 7-point favorite that time around, so the line has barely been adjusted. Books just aren't adjusting enough with San Antonio and it shows with the Spurs failing to cover in each of their last 5. Give me the Kings -7.5! |
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01-31-23 | Indiana v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON MARYLAND TERRAPINS -2.5: I'll gladly take my chances with Maryland laying just 2.5 at home against the Hoosiers. Even after going against Indiana at home against Ohio State and losing, I still think it's wise to look to fade these Hoosiers right now. Indiana is being way overvalued on a 5-game winning streak. It's hard to sustain that kind of success in the Big Ten, especially on the road against a good team. Maryland is 11-1 at home this season. The only loss coming to UCLA. They are 5-0 at home in Big Ten play. Just way too good a price to pass up. Give me the Terps -2.5! |
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01-31-23 | Lakers +3.5 v. Knicks | 129-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON LOS ANGELES LAKERS +3.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Lakers as a 3.5-point road dog against the Knicks on Tuesday. LA comes into this game off a 104-121 loss at Brooklyn on Monday and it just feels like they are being a bit undervalued here due to playing on no rest. Big thing to note about that, is LeBron James and Anthony Davis both didn't play last night. The reasons given were because of injuries, but it was really just a load management deal. I expect both to be back on the floor and I really like what I've seen out of this Lakers team over the last couple of weeks, especially since getting back Davis. I think if they had this roster intact from the get go, there would be zero debate on if this was a playoff team. I also think them losing last night to Brooklyn, really puts an emphasis on them winning this game. As for the Knicks, I'm just not a believer in this team. They are just 2-5 SU over their last 7 games. Yes those were two good wins, beating the Cavs at home and Celtics on the road, but could easily have lost both of those games and be on a 7-game skid. Lastly, LeBron has been playing out of his mind of late and you know he's going to want to put on a show at MSG. Give me the Lakers +3.5! |
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01-30-23 | Kings v. Wolves | Top | 118-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* NBA Revenge PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON THE SACRAMENTO KINGS PK: I'm going big on the Kings in Monday's rematch vs the Timberwolves. Love Sacramento in this spot. These two teams played in Minnesota on Saturday with the Timberwolves pulling out a 117-110 win. Minnesota also comes in having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. I just feel it has them way overvalued here. Kings are going to be the more motivated side having lost the first meeting and are the better team to begin with. I just don't think the line move is justified given the spot. Kings were a 3-point road favorite on Saturday and now are a pick'em in some spots? Kings are 22-10 ATS last 32 on the road when revenging a same season loss over the last 3 seasons (7-3 ATS this season in any revenge spot). They are 6-0 ATS this season when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5-2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the Kings PK! |
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01-28-23 | Raptors v. Blazers -4.5 | 123-105 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -4.5: |
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01-28-23 | Lakers +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* NBA - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON LOS ANGELES LAKERS +8.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Lakers as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. No question that Boston is the better team, but 8.5 is ridiculous given how well the Lakers have been playing and the fact that they got back Anthony Davis from injury and recently added a quality bench player in Rui Hachimura. He 12 points and 6 boards off the bench in just 22 minutes in his Lakers debut, posting a +17 +/-. They could also be getting back guard Lonnie Walker, who hasn't played since late December. Walker is 4th on the team in scoring (14.7 ppg) and arguably their best 3-point shooter (38.4%). Celtics will be playing without Marcus Smart, who might be the 3rd or 4th best player on their team, but easily the heart and soul of this team. He brings a different level of energy that I think the rest of the guys feed off of. Boston is also a team that has really solidified itself in terms of being an elite team. They don't got much to prove. Lakers are a team trying to save their season. Just too many points for me to pass up. Give me Los Angeles +8.5! |
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01-28-23 | Kings v. Wolves OVER 237.5 | 110-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER PLAY ON KINGS/WOLVES OVER 237.5: |
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01-28-23 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Indiana | 70-86 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +5.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Buckeyes as a slim 5.5-point road favorite against Indiana. I just think this a great spot and price to sell-high on the Hoosiers, who come into this game having won 4 straight. Also a good buy-low spot on Ohio State who has gone just 1-6 over their last 7. Buckeyes recent record may suggest they aren't that good, but it's been a bit of bad luck. During this stretch they have a 2-point loss at home to Purdue, 3-point loss at home to Minnesota, 2-point OT loss at Turgers and 3-point loss at Nebraska. You won't find many 11-9 teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (No. 9). Ohio State also is 27th in effective FG% defense. Indiana hasn't exactly fared well against top tier offenses. They are 9-0 vs teams that rank outside the Top 150. That makes them 5-6 vs teams in the Top 150 and 2-4 vs teams in the Top 50. They are also just 3-5 vs teams in the Top 100 in defensive effective FG%. Just a few too many points for the Hoosiers to be laying. Give me Ohio State +5.5! |
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01-28-23 | Florida v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON KANSAS STATE -4.5: I absolutely love the value and price with K-State as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against Florida. Wildcats should be pretty motivated for this one after losing at Iowa State on Tuesday. Just the third time all season K-State has failed to come out with a victory. The other two also coming in true road games. Wildcats are a perfect 10-0 at home. I also think it's a great spot here to sell-high on Florida. Gators come in having won 5 of their last 6, but all 5 wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 50 at KenPom. Florida is 0-7 this season against Top 50 teams. Of those 7 losses, 5 came out of conference, including losses by 9 on a neutral to Oklahoma and by 29 on a neutral to West Virginia, who are both 2-6 in Big 12 play this year (K-State is 6-2). Simply put, the Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite here. Give me K-State -4.5! |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | 61-51 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE PLAY ON WISCONSIN BADGERS +2: I got no problem backing the Badgers as a 2-point home dog against Illinois. I honestly don't think the Fighting Illini should be favored on the road here. Wisconsin has lost 5 of their last 6, which looks bad, but 4 of those 5 losses were on the road. That includes a 69-79 loss at Illinois, where the Badgers were missing their best player in Tyler Wahl. Illinois appears to have gotten things on track with wins in 5 of their last 6, but I'm not so sure. Outside of their win against a Wahl-less Wisconsin, they beat Mich St and Ohio St at home, while also winning at Minnesota and Nebraska. I just think it has them way overvalued on the road against a team like Wisconsin. Note those are the only two true road wins on Illinois' resume. Their other two Big 10 road games resulted in a 5-point loss at Maryland and a 13 point loss at Northwestern. Simply too much value on the Badgers at home. Give me Wisconsin +2! |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech -2.5 v. LSU | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -2.5: I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech as a slim 2.5-point road favorite against LSU. The Red Raiders couldn't have drawn up a worse start to Big 12 play. After going 10-2 in non-conference play with their only two losses coming to Creighton and Ohio State, Texas Tech sits winless at 0-8 in Big 12 play. I just think it speaks volumes to how good the Big 12 is this year and if you are off just the slightest bit, you are going to lose. It's not like the Red Raiders haven't been competitive. Of their 8 conference losses, 5 have come by 7 or fewer. If they just win 4 of those and are 4-4 in Big 12 play, the narrative on this team is completely different. I just think their record and the 8-game losing streak they bring into this game has them way undervalued against a bad LSU team. Tigers were 11-1 in non-conference play, but played the 347th toughest out of conference slate. They are 1-7 in SEC play and really have been competitive of late. Their last 6 losses have come by at least 11 points. I just think Texas Tech is a much better team from top to bottom. Give me the Red Raiders -2.5! |
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01-27-23 | Cavs v. Thunder -110 | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER PICK'EM: I'll gladly take my chances with OKC at a pick'em on their home floor against the Cavaliers. This is the ideal spot to play against Cleveland. Cavs are at a big rest disadvantage in this one. Cleveland will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Houston. It's also their 3rd road game in a 4 day stretch. Cavs could also be without two key contributors with Donovan Mitchell nursing a groin injury and Kevin Love questionable with a back injury. You also have to think Cleveland could monitor minutes or give their stars the night off given how much they have already had to play in the last 3 days. As for the Thunder, good bounce back spot for them coming off Monday's hard fought 132-137 loss at home to the Hawks. The defensive effort wasn't very good in that game, though some of it was just unrealistic shooting by Atlanta, who shot 60% from the field. I just feel that OKC will be able to get what they want offensively at home against a worn down Cavs defense and I don't see Cleveland being able to keep pace, especially if Mitchell doesn't play. Give me the Thunder PK! |
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01-26-23 | Iowa v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE -2.5: I'll take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Iowa on Thursday. Iowa is one of several Big Ten teams that I'm looking to back at home and fade on the road. Since Big Ten play resumed in late December, Iowa has gone 3-0 at home and just 1-3 on the road. Two of those road losses weren't close, as they fell by 15 at Nebraska and by 16 last time out at Ohio State. They also trailed by as many as 18 on the road in a 4-point loss at Penn State. One of the biggest reasons I believe Iowa has such big home/away splits, is they aren't a good defensive team and can't rely on their shooting to bail them out on the road. I also think there's value here due to the fact that Michigan State comes in having lost 3 of their last 4. Most recently losing by 13 on the road to Indiana. Nothing shocking about their 1-3 stretch. The other two losses were at Illinois and at home by 1 to Purdue. Their only other home loss besides the defeat to the Boilermakers was a loss to Northwestern back in the first week of December. Simply too good a price and spot to pass up. Give me the Spartans -2.5! |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -2.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -2.5: I'll take my chances with Golden State as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Grizzlies. It's been an up and down first half of the season for the Warriors, which was to be expected. Golden State doesn't care about regular-season accolades. It's a big part of why they are just 6-18 on the road. They are 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS at home this year. They are 4-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 and are 18-5 ATS in this spot over the last 3 years. This team gets up for big games, especially at home. I expect their best with Ja Morant coming to town. Big concern I have with Memphis is the injury to big man Steven Adams, who looks to be sidelined at least a couple weeks. Adams has started 42 of 44 games. He doesn't offer much offensively, but leads the team with 11.5 rpg. Warriors on the other hand are as close to full strength as I can remember. Kevon Looney just returned to action and James Wiseman is expected to return after missing close to a month. The only guy they are missing is veteran reserve Andre Iguodala, who has played in just 3 games. Golden State also has a decent edge here in scheduling. Warriors will be playing on a full 2 days of rest and have not played a back-to-back in over a week. Memphis is playing the 4th of a 5-game road trip and while they were off yesterday, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days. Give me the Warriors -2.5! |
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01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings OVER 237 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! |
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01-25-23 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. Auburn | 79-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON TEXAS A&M AGGIES +4.5: Give me the Aggies as a 4.5-point road dog against Auburn. Even after Saturday's 67-76 loss at Kentucky as a 5-point dog, Texas A&M is a team I want to be looking to back right now. Aggies had started out a perfect 5-0 in SEC play prior to the loss to the Wildcats, which included road wins over Florida and South Carolina. This team also won by 16 at DePaul and lost by just 4 at Memphis. They are not going to be intimidated by playing on the road at Auburn. I'm also not so sure the Tigers are as good as their 16-3 record would lead you to believe. Auburn has played 4 Top 100 teams on their home floor and only dominated in one. They won by just 5 over St. Louis, by 3 vs Florida and by 6 against Miss St. I do not like the matchup either for Auburn. I really question where the offense is going to come from for the Tigers. Auburn is one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the country, ranking 332nd in 3P%. Aggies will let you shoot 3's. They aren't going to give up anything easy inside. Texas A&M is 18th in the country in 2P% defense. If Auburn struggles like they have from deep all season in this game, they won't just not cover, they will lose outright. Give me Texas A&M +4.5! |
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01-25-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. Magic | 120-126 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
8* NBA Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON INDIANA PACERS +5.5: I nailed the Pacers (+2) in last night's 116-110 win at home against the Bulls. Big reason I liked Indiana in that game, is I fell they were being undervalued due to their 7-game losing streak. Because the losing streak started the same time Tyrese Haliburton got hurt, most just assume that's why they aren't playing well. It's a big loss, but the schedule also played a big role in their struggles. I just think this team is still being undervalued and too much is being made here of them being on no rest. Keep in mind Indiana had 2 days off before their game against Chicago. Simply put, I just feel that 5.5 is too many points to pass up here. The Magic are improved this season and have covered 5 of their last 6. However, all but one of those came as a dog. Not sure I trust this team in the opposite role, especially at this price. Orlando is a mere 4-15 ATS last 3 seasons in home games vs teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Give me the Pacers +5.5! |
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01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska +3 | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR PLAY ON NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS +3: I will gladly take my chances with Nebraska as a home dog against the Wildcats. The Cornhuskers are a team that I'm looking to back at home, especially as an underdog. Like a lot of these Big Ten teams, Nebraska is a different animal at home. They are just 10-10 overall, yet come in with a 7-2 record at home. One of those losses coming in OT vs Purdue. So while Northwestern has the much better record at 13-5 (4-3 in Big Ten play), I'm not so sure they should be favored in this game. Wildcats could have quite the hole at shooting guard in this game. Their top two options at the position, Ty Berry and Julian Roper, are both listed as questionable with ankle injuries suffered in Monday's win over Wisconsin. I got a hard time believing either plays given they have had just 1 day off. It really makes it tough for Northwestern to take Boo Buie or Chase Audige off the floor and both of those guys played a ton of minutes in the win over the Badgers. I just don't think the Wildcats will have the legs or depth to compete at a high level on the road tonight. Give me the Cornhuskers +3! |
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01-24-23 | Wizards +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* NBA Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON WASHINGTON WIZARDS +7.5: I love the Wizards as a 7.5-point road dog against the Mavs on Tuesday. This is a Washington team that I'm looking to back right now and no way I'm passing up on them at this price. Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season and it's shown in their recent performances. Washington went on the road and beat the Knicks 116-105 on Wednesday and then crushed the Magic 138-118 at home on Saturday. They are very well rested team, playing just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. This will be the Mavs 4th game in the last 7 days and they have not been playing well. Dallas is just 2-6 SU in their last 8. They are a mere 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Doncic is incredible, but they really miss Christian Wood, who is out with a thumb injury. Keep in mind they also are playing right now without Maxi Kleber, who would be the guy that normally would be asked to pick up the slack with Wood out. Just too many points for Dallas to be laying in this spot. Give me the Wizards +7.5! |
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01-24-23 | Bulls v. Pacers +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ON INDIANA PACERS +2: Easy play for me on the Pacers as a small 2-point home dog against the Bulls. Indiana has really fallen off of late. Pacers come in having lost 7 straight. A losing streak that has coincided with the loss of point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Not having him in the lineup is a big deal, but the schedule has also played a big role in their recent struggles. Mavs just finished up a 4-game road rip that saw them play the Bucks, Thunder, Nuggets and Suns. The previous two were home games against the Hawks and Grizzlies. I just think it has them way undervalued here at home against a Bulls team that is in a really bad spot. Chicago played a game in Paris last Thursday. They got just 3-days off to deal with the jet lag before last night's game against the Hawks. I think it's going to be really tough for them to bounce back with a big effort here in the second of a back-to-back. Give me the Pacers +2! |
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01-24-23 | Ohio State v. Illinois -3.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT PLAY ON ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI -3.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Fighting Illini as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Ohio State. Really an easy play for me on Illinois after that embarrassing 65-80 loss at home to Indiana last time out. It was just an all-around bad showing and this team has had performances like that. The key to me is they have showed the ability to bounce back. Let's also not ignore the fact that in the loss to the Hoosiers, they had no answer for Indiana star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had 35 points on 15 of 19 shooting. Ohio State doesn't have a guy like that inside. In fact, there's a good chance they are going to have play this game without one of their better big guys in Zed Key, who injured his knee in their last game against Iowa and is listed as questionable. Either way, I like Illinois to roll in this one. Give me the Fighting Illini -3.5! |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls UNDER 239.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! |
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01-22-23 | Thunder +6.5 v. Nuggets | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +6.5: I will gladly take the 6.5 with Oklahoma City as they go to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Denver comes into this game off an impressive 134-111 blowout win over the Pacers to extend their winning streak to 9. I just feel it has them overvalued here in this one. Denver could be down two of their best players, as Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are both questionable. Backup point guard Bones Hyland is also questionable. As for the Thunder, they come in off a 113-118 loss at the Kings. OKC is still a strong 7-2 SU in their last 9 games and are a perfect 9-0 ATS during this run. I just don't think the public has caught on to how talented this Thunder team is and until they do, there's going to be value on them. Give me the Thunder +6.5! |
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01-22-23 | Michigan State v. Indiana -4 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -4: I will gladly lay the 4-points with Indiana at home against Michigan State. The Hoosiers come into this game off impressive back-to-back wins. First it was a 63-45 win at home over Wisconsin. Then it was a shocking 80-65 win at Illinois against an Illini team that had been rolling. Indiana is 9-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming by just 1-point to Northwestern. Michigan State snapped a two game skid with a 70-57 win at home over Rutgers in their last game, but have lost 2 of their last 3. Spartans are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs good defensive teams that are allowing 42% or worse from the field 15+ games into the season. Hoosiers are 24-10 ATS last 34 at home after 2 straight wins by 15+ points. Give me Indiana -4! |
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01-21-23 | 76ers v. Kings +2 | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
9* NBA Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON SACRAMENTO KINGS +2: I don't think the Kings should be getting points at home against the 76ers. The lack of respect this Sacramento team gets is surprising. Everyone I think is aware that they are much improved, but no one is talking about them as a team that could win the Western Conference. Despite the fact that they sit 3rd in the West standings with a 26-18 record and come into this game having won 6 in a row. The big reason they aren't getting a ton of love from the books in this game is they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. I just don't think it's a big enough of a factor that they should be a dog at home. It would be one thing if they were playing a bottom feeder or middle of the pack team. Philly is tied for the 2nd best record in the East at 29-16. Kings will be ready to go. It's also just the 3rd game overall in the last 6 days. Philly is the team that could be sleepwalking in this one, as they will be playing their 5th and final game on a 5-game road trip. Give me the Kings +2! |
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01-21-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Wizards | 118-138 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE PLAY ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5: I will gladly take 7.5 with the Magic against the Wizards. This line feels a bit inflated due to the fact that Orlando will be playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back. Thing is, Orlando had a whopping 4-days off before last night's game against the Pelicans. The quick turnaround shouldn't be a big deal for them in this game. Washington is as healthy as they have been all season, but even at full strength this team would be lucky to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. I also got to wonder just how excited are they about facing the Magic. Orlando doesn't exactly get the juices flowing. The other big thing is that Orlando comes in playing well. While they are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, they are 6-2 ATS during this run, with three outright wins as a dog. The Magic are not a pushover any more. I really like them to stay within this number and would not be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Magic +7.5! |
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01-21-23 | Virginia Tech +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +1.5: Love me Virginia Tech as a short road dog against Clemson. No better time to buy-low on the Hokies, who come into this game having lost 6 straight. They did lose by 10 in each of their last two games against Syracuse and Virginia, but the previous 4 losses were by 5 or fewer points. It's do or die for Virginia Tech at 1-6 in ACC play and this team has a lot of the same feels of the team from last year that started slow and caught fire. I also think you got to look at the health situation for these two teams. Hokies just got healthier with the return of Hunter Cattoor, while Clemson could be down starting point guard Chase Hunter (questionable) and shooting guard Alex Hemenway (out). I also just don't think the Tigers are as good as their 15-4 record would lead you to believe. Lot of things have went their way early on that I don't see being sustained. Give me the Hokies +1.5! |
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01-21-23 | TCU +7.5 v. Kansas | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR PLAY TCU Horned Frogs +7.5: This to me is just too many points to pass up with TCU, as this just feels like some unwarranted inflation on Kansas because they are playing at home. There's not the talent gap on the floor that this line would suggest. Both of these teams like to attack in transition, which would lead you to believe this game is going to be played in the open court. Most times that would favor KU, but Mike Miles Jr and this TCU team thrive in this type of game. I don't see a whole lot of separation on the scoreboard late in this one. I really think TCU has a legit shot here to pull off the upset. Give me the Horned Frogs +7.5! |
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01-20-23 | Heat -1 v. Mavs | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Miami Heat -1 I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Mavs on Friday. Miami is starting to look more and more like the team we expected to see to start the season. Heat have won 4 of their last 5 and 10 of their last 16 to improve to 25-21. They were just a 3.5-point road favorite against a short-handed Pelicans team and won the game 124-98. Now they get a Mavs team that has been struggling of late. Dallas has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They are also just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games. Mavs will have to try and get back on track without one of their best players in Christian Wood, who is second on the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 rpg). It's not just his offense and rebounding, Wood leads the team and T-12th in the league with 1.3 blocks/game. Not exactly what Dallas needed, given how they have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Don't be surprised if Luka puts up some crazy numbers in this one. He's going to have to shoulder a heavy load just for the Mavs to keep this respectable. In the end, I don't see them doing enough to get a win at home against Miami. Give me the Heat -1! |
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01-19-23 | Warriors v. Celtics -5.5 | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Boston Celtics -5.5 I'll take my chances with the Celtics as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Warriors. This will be the first game of a double-header on TNT and I think Boston will be out to send a message in this game. The Celtics have to be chomping at the bit for this matchup. After losing to the Warriors in the NBA Finals last year, Boston went to Golden State and got it handed to them in a 107-123 loss. This is their last chance to face the Warriors this season. I just don't think the Warriors at their current state or going to be able to keep this close. Golden State just got Curry back from a lengthy absence are ravished inside right now. Their 3 backup big men to Kevon Looney are all out (JaMychal Green, Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman). Keep in mind Looney isn't a guy that give you a ton of minutes. He only averages 23.4 minutes/game. Unless Draymond plays the whole game, there is going to be stretches where they have to go extremely small. There's a chance Curry and Thompson can go off and it won't matter who is on the floor, but I just don't think that's likely against this Celtics team. Boston is rolling into this matchup. Celtics have won 7 straight and 5 of those have come by double-digits. Warriors did win last time out at Washington, but had gone just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Spurs. Jaylen Brown is showing up on the injury report, but I feel good about him playing. He was back at practice and when he got hurt in their Jan. 11th game, they believed he would only miss a week. This is the first game since we hit the week mark. Give me the Celtics -5.5! |
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01-19-23 | Michigan v. Maryland -2.5 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Terps as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines. It's been a rough go for Maryland of late. After starting 8-0 they have gone just 3-6 over their last 9 games and are just 2-4 in Big Ten play. The losses have not been pretty of late. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by at least 14 points. One of those an embarrassing 46-81 loss at Michigan. One thing you have to note with Maryland's poor play of late, is the schedule. During this 3-6 stretch, only 1 of those 6 losses came at home and that was to a very good UCLA team. Michigan is not even close to being on the same level as the Bruins. Wolverines come in off a big win at home over Northwestern, but are just 1-5 in their last 6 games away from home with the only win coming against a bad Minnesota team. It's just not easy winning on the road in the Big Ten and we can all but guarantee we get a max effort here from Maryland. Give me the Terps -2.5! |
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01-19-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Michigan State Spartans -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Rutgers. It's just so hard to win on the road in Big Ten play and while Rutgers has a win at Purdue, they are just 2-3 in true road games with the other win by just 3-points at Northwestern. Simply put, I think Rutgers is getting way too much respect on the road. It would be one thing if Michigan State came into this game on some long winning streak and might not give this game their full attention off a tough loss to Purdue. I don't think that will be an issue. Spartans will be extremely motivated to snap a 2-game losing streak. I just don't see a bad Rutgers offense playing on the road, scoring enough to have a legit shot to win this game late. Give me Michigan State -2.5! |
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01-18-23 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 245.5 | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
8* NBA Over/Under TOTAL MASSACRE: Kings/Lakers OVER 245.5 It's crazy to think totals have got to this point in the regular season. This looks more like a total you would see back in the day at an NBA All-Star game. With that said, I don't know how you don't take a stab at the OVER 245.5 in Wednesday's game between the Lakers and Kings. Sacramento games have been ridiculous of late. Kings have seen a combined score of 247 or more points in 5 straight games. Only once in their last 10 games have they played in a game that finished with fewer than 230 points. It's not quite that extreme for the Lakers, but they are another team that is all offense and no defense. It's why LA is 2-3 in their last 5 games, despite averaging 122.4 ppg during this stretch. It's because their defense has given up 124.0 ppg in those 5 games. These two teams played back on Jan. 7th and it was a shootout. The two combined for 270 points in the Lakers 136-134 win. Kings have scored at least 132 points in their last 5. If they hit 130 in this one, we need just 115 from LA to cash. I think both teams could once again get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 245.5! |
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01-18-23 | Arkansas v. Missouri -1.5 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
10* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Missouri Tigers -1.5 I love Missouri as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Arkansas. The hype around this Tigers team has taken a significant hit the last couple weeks. After securing impressive double-digit wins in back-to-back games against Illinois and Kentucky, Missouri has lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win being a mere 3-point victory at home vs Vanderbilt. They also weren't exactly competitive in the last two on the road vs Texas A&M (64-82) and Florida (64-73). Tigers have had a full 3 days off since the loss to the Gators and I got to think they are chomping at the bit to play this game. Missouri is 10-0 on their home floor and have one of the better home court advantages not just in the SEC but the country. I think it's disrespectful that they are basically a pick'em at home in this game. A big reason for that is this Arkansas team has been in the spotlight early on this season. Razorbacks went into their SEC opener 11-1 and ranked No. 9 in the country. One thing to note about their fast start, they didn't secure a single win over a Top 25 team (based on KenPom's current rankings). Their best win a 78-74 OT win over San Diego St. on a neutral site. Arkansas also didn't play a single true road game before conference play. So far they have played 3 road games in the SEC and lost all 3, the last two coming by 13 at Vandy and by 13 at Auburn. Give me Missouri -1.5! |
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01-18-23 | Pacers v. Thunder -4 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oklahoma City Thunder -4 I got no problem laying the 4-points at home with Oklahoma City against the Pacers. Indiana really had something going there in late December and early January. Pacers at one point had won 8 of 10. They have lost 4 straight since and the biggest reason for that is the absence of point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He's the one guy this team couldn't afford to lose. I just think it's asking a lot for the Pacers to keep this one close without Haliburton against a scorching hot Thunder team. OKC appears to have thrown the tank option out the window. Thunder have won 5 of their last 6 with wins over the Mavs, 76ers, Bulls and Nets (last 3 on the road). They didn't just beat those teams, they dominated those games. OKC beat the Mavs 120-109, 76ers 133-114, Bulls 124-110 and the Nets 112-102. Thunder are operating at an extremely high level offensive during this run. That offense will be up against a bad Indiana defense. One that comes in giving up 117.8 ppg in road games this season. Pacers just don't have the offensive firepower to keep it close. Give me the Thunder -4! |
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01-18-23 | Wizards +6.5 v. Knicks | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Washington Wizards +6.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Wizards as a 6.5-point road dog against the Knicks. Couple of things I like here. One, I think Washington is going to welcome back their best player, Bradley Beal, to the lineup. Beal has been upgraded to questionable and was reportedly practicing on Sunday. He's been out since Jan. 3 and two weeks is about what it takes for a mild hamstring strain to heal. If Beal returns, this is as healthy the Wizards have been all season and this is a team that is much more talented than it's 18-26 record would suggest. As for the Knicks, I just think they are being overpriced right now. New York has won 7 of their last 9 games, but most of those wins have come against either the bottom tier of the league or teams missing key players. One of those was a mere 4-point win at Washington last week. Wizards had a chance to win that game, despite shooting just 38.7% from the field. Beal gives the offense a massive boost. I like the Wizards to keep this closer than the number and maybe even win outright. Give me Washington +6.5! |
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01-18-23 | Hawks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Mavericks -3.5 I'll take my chances on the Mavs as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I think it's time to buy-low on Dallas right now. Mavs just lost back-to-back games to a struggling Blazers team and are just 1-4 SU over their last 5. They have also gone just 2-7 ATS over their previous 9. I also think it's a good time to sell-high on the Hawks. Atlanta has won 3 straight, most recently beating a hot Heat team 121-113 as a mere 1-point favorite. It all adds up to a very cheap price to back Dallas, especially given the circumstances. Mavs are going to be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday. Star Luka Doncic will be on 3-days rest, as he sat out the second of a back-to-back (He's listed as questionable, but expected to play). Any injury concerns with Christian Wood were put to rest with him returning to play on Sunday after sitting Saturday. Tim Hardaway Jr. will miss this game, but there's a chance Dallas gets back Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green. Finney-Smith has started 31 games, while Green has flashed potential off the bench. Hawks will be on just 1 day of rest after playing Monday. Atlanta's got to be sick and tired of traveling. Outside of playing two straight games in LA vs the Lakers and Clippers, Hawks haven't played back to back games on the same floor since a short two game homestand in late Dec. This is also a Hawks team that is just 10-13 on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 ppg. Mavs are 16-6 at home, outscoring opponents by 5.4 ppg. Dallas is 17-7 ATS last 24 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Hawks are 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover, 14-27 last 41 as a road dog and 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half. Give me the Mavs -3.5! |
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01-18-23 | Florida v. Texas A&M -3.5 | 52-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Texas A&M Aggies -3.5 Easy play for me on the Aggies as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Florida. Texas A&M is playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this game. Aggies have won 6 straight. A winning streak that stems back to an ugly 62-67 home loss to Wofford in late December. It seems like that poor showing has lit a fire under this team. Texas A&M has started out 4-0 in SEC play. They got it started with a 66-63 win at Florida. They then crushed LSU 69-56 and Missouri 82-64 at home, before going on the road an annihilating South Carolina 94-53. Some of the value here stems from the Gators coming in on their own 3-game win streak. Florida was very impressive last week, beating LSU 67-56 on the road and Missouri 73-64 at home. No question this Florida team is better than their 10-7 record would lead you to believe. With that said, they are getting way too much respect on the road in this one. Texas A&M has a strong homecourt edge, especially when the fans have a team they believe in. The only home loss this season is that shocking defeat to Wofford. I also look at the first meeting between these two teams. Aggies had a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game, shot just 2 for 16 from behind the 3-point line, dominated the offensive boards and forced 20 turnovers. Gators were lucky to only lose by 3. I think it will be tough for Florida to keep this within single-digits. Give me Texas A&M -3.5! |
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01-18-23 | Connecticut -4.5 v. Seton Hall | 66-67 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Sharp Money PLAY OF THE DAY: UConn -4.5 I'll take my chances with UConn laying just 4.5 on the road against Seton Hall. This has all the making of a get right game for the Huskies, who have lost 4 of 5 after their perfect 14-0 start to the season. The first 3 losses were to good teams (Xavier, Providence and Marquette) on the road. The most recent was an ugly 74-85 loss at home to St. John's. Dan Hurley should have his guys 100% locked in for this showdown with the Pirates. Seton Hall comes in having won 3 straight, but it's came against the 3 worst teams in the Big East in Butler, DePaul and Georgetown. Pirates were 1-4 in conference play before the win streak. For me this really comes down to the fact that I don't think the Pirates can score enough to keep this game close. Seton Hall is 229th in the country in effective FG% and are 303rd in TO%. UConn is 11th in defensive efficiency, 12th in defensive effective FG% and 56th in TO%. Huskies make you earn it on defense. They are elite at defending the 3-point shot. They do foul a lot and give up a bunch of free throws. Seton Hall does a good job at drawing fouls, but shoot just 67.1% from the line. Seton Hall's defense isn't bad, but they are up against a very good UConn offense that ranks 14th in the country in offensive efficiency and 42nd in effective FG%. They are also 25th in Off. Reb.%. Pirates are 231st in the rate in which they give up offensive rebounds. I expect a comfortable win for UConn in this one. Give me the Huskies -4.5! |
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01-17-23 | Blazers +7 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Portland Trail Blazers +7 I'll take my chances with the Blazers catching 7-points on the road against the Nuggets. Portland comes into this game off back-to-back home wins over the Mavs. First time since mid December they were able to string together consecutive wins. I believe it's a sign of the Blazers finally getting back to full strength. The only guy out right now is Justice Winslow. Portland beat the Nuggets 135-110 at home in the first meeting this season before losing by 1 at home in the rematch 120-121 and then 107-120 at Denver in the 3rd meeting. I think it's worth noting that the Blazers were only a 4.5-point dog in the previous game at Denver. Since that game the Blazers have gotten back a huge bench piece in Gary Payton II. I think he can be a difference maker for this team and he doesn't have to score to impact the game in a big way. Nuggets come into this game having shots light out of late, hitting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. Historically this has been a good sign that some regression is coming, as Denver is just 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 3 straight games shooting 50% or better from the field. Give me the Blazers +7! |
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01-17-23 | Baylor v. Texas Tech -2 | 81-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2 I'll take my chances with Texas Tech laying a mere 2-points at home against Baylor. This line isn't going to make a ton of sense. The Bears come into this game off back-to-back wins are ranked No. 21 in the country. Red Raiders have went from a Top 25 team to a team firmly on the bubble in early January, as they come in having lost 5 straight to open up Big 12 play. Losing streaks like this can happen in a conference like the Big 12, even for good teams. The schedule wasn't exactly kind to them during this stretch. Of the 5 games, 3 were on the road and one of the home games was against Kansas. They lost the other home game vs Oklahoma in OT. They also lost by just 3-points at home to the Jayhawks and last time out they lost by just 2 at home to Texas. We should be able to bank on an extremely motivated Texas Tech team taking the floor on Tuesday. You also have to factor in one of the best homecourt edges in the country (KenPom has the No. 1 in home court advantage). I also look at Baylor and just think they are down a notch from what they have been in previous years. Bears are just 2-3 in Big 12 play and their wins are against W Virginia and Oklahoma State. We saw Baylor lose by 15 in a true road game at Iowa State. They also lost by 26 at Marquette in non-conference play. Give me Texas Tech -2! |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa State Cyclones -2 I love the Cyclones as a mere 2-point home favorite against Texas on Tuesday. This isn't just another game on the schedule for Iowa State. The Cyclones have had this one circled for a while. Not just cause they hate Texas, but that hatred got a lot stronger when the Longhorns landed stud ISU transfer point guard Tyrese Hunter. Cyclones have been a big surprise so far this season. Not many expected them to be this good, but Saturday's mere 2-point loss at Kansas was further proof that this team is for real. ISU's only other losses are to UConn and a road game at in-state rival Iowa. Cyclones are a perfect 9-0 at home and have dominated at home in Big 12 play, beating Baylor 77-62 and Texas Tech 84-50. Texas is a very talented team and gotten off to a 15-2 record with a 4-1 mark in Big 12 play, but the loss of head coach Chris Beard is a big one. Longhorns have also been very fortunate in close games in Big 12 play. They could just as easily be 1-4 in league play, as they have a 1-point win at Oklahoma, 4-point win at home vs TCU and a 2-point win at home vs Texas Tech. I just don't think Iowa State is getting near enough respect. Give me the Cyclones -2! |
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01-16-23 | Heat v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Heat/Hawks UNDER 224.5 I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hawks and Heat. I'm expecting a much more defensive battle than what the books are anticipating between these two Southeast rivals. Miami is one of the few UNDER teams left in the NBA. Heat are Top 5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, bottom 10 in offensive efficiency and bottom 10 in Pace. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games and is 14-7 (67%) in road games this year. Atlanta does like to push the pace with their dynamic backcourt of Murray and Young, but it doesn't always result in great shots. Hawks are bottom 10 in the league in offensive efficiency. What people don't realize with Atlanta is they are a pretty good defensive team. Hawks are12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They come in having seen the UNDER cash in each of their last 4 games. They only combined for 204 points in the Heat's 106-98 win at Atlanta earlier this season and if you back over their last 8 meetings the UNDER is 7-0-1. Give me the UNDER 224.5! |
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01-16-23 | Purdue v. Michigan State +4 | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Michigan State +4 I'll take my chances with the Spartans as 4-point home dog against the Boilermakers in Monday's Big Ten play. Michigan State comes into this one off a 9-point loss at Illinois on Friday. It wasn't as bad a showing as the final score would indicate. If anything the Spartans gave that game away, as they led 50-41 with just under 14 minutes to play. Prior to that loss Michigan State had won 7 straight overall and 4 in a row in Big 10 play. Purdue is a great team and most just assume they are in a class of their own in the Big Ten hierarchy. I just don't think people realize how tough it is to win on the road in this conference. Purdue played just 3 true road games this season. They are 3-0 in those games, but they only won by 10 at Florida State, needed OT to win at Nebraska and most recently snuck out a 2-point win at Ohio State. I like the Spartans to win this game outright but I'll gladly take the points as insurance. Give me Michigan State +4! |
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01-15-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Nets | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 I'll take my chances with OKC catching 5.5 on the road against the Nets. I'll definitely be looking to fade Brooklyn as much as I can with Kevin Durant out. I don't think enough is being made of how big a loss this is. Everyone knows how good Durant is, I just don't think people realize how well he was playing. Not a lot is going to be made of them losing at home to the Celtics without Durant, which is certainly playing into the favorable number in this matchup. Oklahoma City comes into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Thunder are 4-1 over their last 5 games with the only loss being by 1-point at Miami, where they gave the game away late. They have a 120-109 win at home over the Mavs, 133-114 win at the 76ers and a 124-110 win at Chicago playing on no rest in this 5-game stretch. Their offense has been outstanding during this run, scoring an average of 123.0 ppg on 50.1% shooting. It's not just all offense. Their defense is only giving up 43.8% shooting during this stretch. I like them to win this game outright, but I'll take the points as an added insurance. Give me the Thunder +5.5! |
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01-15-23 | Maryland v. Iowa -5 | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -5 I'll take my chances with the Hawkeyes as a 5-point home favorite against Maryland on the college hardwood Sunday. After starting 0-3 in Big Ten play, Iowa has responded with 3 straight wins to pull even at 3-3. Most recently pulling off an improbable 93-84 OT win at home over Michigan in a game that they trailed 70-77 with 2 minutes to play. Iowa continues to be without starting forward Patrick McCaffrey, but his loss is not as big a deal as some make it out to be. It's really opened the door for sophomore Payton Sandfort to take on a bigger role. In the 3 games McCaffrey has missed, Sandfort is averaging 19.7 ppg and if you go back over the last 5 games that Sandfort has played at least 22 minutes, he's averaging 20.2 ppg. Iowa is also a different team at home than they are on the road. Hawkeyes are 8-2 at home this year with both losses coming in games where their best player, Kris Murray, wasn't on the floor. Maryland is just 1-3 in true road games with the only win coming against an awful Louisville team back in late November. In their last two road games they lost by 14 at Rutgers and by 35 at Michigan. Give me Iowa -5! |
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01-14-23 | Mavs v. Blazers -1.5 | 119-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Trail Blazers as a small 1.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is the perfect spot to jump on a Portland team that is desperately trying to get back in the win column. Blazers couldn't be catching the Mavs in a better spot. Dallas has to be running on fumes right now. They are playing the 4th game of a 5-game road trip and just two days removed from Thursday's exhausting 119-115 2OT win over the Lakers. I could see some guys sitting for Dallas, most notably Christian Wood, who is listed as questionable. Wood hurt his ankle late vs LA. He was able to come back, but those ankle injuries have a way of getting worse the next day. This is also the front end of a back-to-back, which I think it makes it that much more unlikely he plays. Too much value with the Blazers at this price. Give me Portland -1.5! |
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01-14-23 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 235 | 118-117 | Push | 0 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
8* NBA Over/UNDER Total ANNIHILATOR: 76ers/Jazz OVER 235 I'll take my chances with the OVER 235 in Saturday's NBA non-conference matchup between the 76ers and Jazz. Philadelphia is an offensive juggernaut and I don't see this Utah defense putting up much of a fight in this one, especially not in the second game of a back-to-back after last night's hard fought 112-108 win over the Magic. 76ers should also be motivated after Thursday's 114-133 embarrassing loss at home to the Thunder. It was a rare off night shooting. This team had scored 120 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. Jazz are giving up 117 ppg over their last 5 and don't have anyone to stop Embiid from doing as he pleases. Philly should do whatever they want offensively in this one and I'll count on Utah's offense to do enough to get us over the mark. Give me the OVER 235! |
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01-14-23 | Iowa State v. Kansas -7 | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kansas Jayhawks -7 I'll take my chances with Kansas as a 7-point home favorite against Iowa State. I think most would look at this game and be drawn to back Iowa State and grab the points. Cyclones are 13-2, have won 6 straight, are 4-0 in Big 12 Play and fresh off a 34-point (84-50) beatdown of Texas Tech at home on Tuesday. Thing with Iowa State is they rely so much defensively on creating turnovers. I don't think they are going to disrupt the offensive flow of this Jayhawks team. Kansas is one of the best in the country at moving the ball, as they rank 20th in assists/FG made. If you can break the pressure of ISU, there defense tends to give up a lot of wide open 3's. Some of that is them being okay with letting teams shoot from deep. They are 355th on defense in opponents 3PT FG attempts per FG attempt. I don't think that's going to work on the road vs this Kansas team. Jayhawks are 23rd in the country in 3PT% shooting. If Kansas shoots to their ability, I don't see the Cyclones being able to keep pace offensively. Give me Kansas -7! |
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01-14-23 | Providence +7 v. Creighton | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Providence Friars +7 I'll take my chances with the Friars catching 7-points on the road against Creighton Saturday. Providence is being way undervalued in this one. Friars come into this game having won 9 straight. They have wins over both Marquette and UConn during this run. Creighton is going in the opposite direction. Bluejays have lost their last two games and are just 3-8 since starting the season 6-0. So while Creighton is a tough team to beat on the road, I just feel that's being baked into this number way too much. I think it's going to take everything the Bluejays have just to win this game outright. It's not a good matchup for them. They are a team that likes to shoot a lot of 3's. Friars don't let teams get going from the outside. They rank 28th in opponents % of field goal attempts coming from behind the 3-point line. Providence also makes teams work for a good shot. They are 27th in opponents assists/FG made. Give me the Friars +7! |
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01-13-23 | Rockets +9.5 v. Kings | 114-139 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Houston Rockets +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Rockets catching 9.5-points on the road against the Kings Friday. This will be a rematch as these just played each other in Sacramento on Wednesday. The Kings would win that game 135-115 and cover as a 9.5-point favorite. Most will just assume looking at the final score that it was a blowout the whole way, but that wasn't the case at all. Houston actually had the lead entering the 4th quarter, but were then outscored 41-20 in the final period. Collapsing like they did should have the Rockets motivated for the rematch. I'm not so sure Sacramento will have as easy a time getting up for this game. It's not easy to blowout any team in the NBA in consecutive games. I like the Rockets to hang around and possibly even win this game outright. Give me Houston +9.5! |
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01-13-23 | Thunder v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 124-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -4 I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 4-point home favorite against the Thunder. I like this spot for Chicago, who I feel will be extra motivated to get a win here after losing their last two games. This is a team that was really playing well before this latest hiccup. Chicago is still 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Yes, the Bulls figure to be without Demar DeRozan, but this is a really bad scheduling spot for OKC. Thunder were in action last night at Philly, a game they shockingly won 133-114 as a 10.5-point underdog. Not easy bouncing back this late in the season on no rest, especially on the road. This will be the Thunder's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which only makes this spot that much worse. Who knows if OKC even plays all their guys on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Either way the price is too good to pass up with Chicago. Give me the Bulls -4! |
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01-13-23 | Pelicans v. Pistons OVER 233.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
8* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE: Pelicans/Pistons OVER 233.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 233.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Pistons. These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this number. Detroit's limited defensively and just aren't giving much effort at all on that side of the ball of late. In their last 6 games they have allowed at least 119 points in each game. The lowest combined score in this 6-game stretch is 230, with 4 of the 6 eclipsing 240 points. New Orleans has scored 117, 132 and 114 in the first 3 games of their 5-game road trip. Even without Zion and Ingram, there's a lot of guys on this team that can put the ball in the basket. I think at the very least they score 115, more than likely getting into the 120s. Pelicans aren't exactly playing great defense without Zion and Ingram and are giving up 117.8 ppg on 48% shooting in road games year. OVER is 14-5-1 in their 20 road games to date. In their current 3-game road trip they have allowed 127 on 57% shooting to the Mavs, 112 on 51% shooting to the Wizards and 125 on 48% shooting at Boston. Pistons just put up 135 points on 60% shooting in their last game at home vs the Timberwolves. Detroit is scoring 114.6 ppg on 47% shooting at home and come in averaging 118.6 ppg on 49% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 233.5! |
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01-13-23 | Nebraska +15.5 v. Purdue | 55-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +15.5 I'll take my chances with Nebraska catching 15.5-points on the road against No. 3 ranked Purdue. The Cornhuskers aren't exactly a team that I want to back a lot on the road in Big Ten play, but this is just way too many points. Some of that value with Nebraska stems from their last game, which they got destroyed 76-50 at home by Illinois. They have also lost by 18 at Michigan State and by 16 at Indiana in their two true road games in conference play. I just think it's going to be hard for Purdue to get excited about playing this game, as they have to feel like they just need to show up to win this game. Nebraska isn't just coming into this game thinking they can keep it close. They took the Boilermakers to OT in a 62-65 loss at home back on Dec. 10th. With that said, I think Purdue would have to play pretty bad for Nebraska to win, but we saw the upset happen in a similar spot last night with Minnesota going on the road and beating Ohio State 70-67 as a 14.5-point dog. Give me the Cornhuskers +15.5! |
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01-12-23 | Mavs v. Lakers +3.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Lakers +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Lakers as a 3.5-point home dog against the Mavs on Thursday. Th market has been way off on both of these teams of late. Los Angeles is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Lakers are also in the much better scheduling spot, as they come in on a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. Mavs are playing on just 1-day of rest, playing their 3rd straight game on the road and their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the Lakers +3.5! |
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01-12-23 | Thunder v. 76ers OVER 232.5 | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Thunder/76ers OVER 232.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Thunder. Philly is an offensive juggernaut and just got back two of their top scorers in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In Embiid's first game back after missing a few games, they put up 147 points on 61% shooting in Tuesday's blowout win at home over the Pistons. 76ers have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, all 5 of which have gone over the total. OVER is 9-1 in Philly's last 10 games overall. OKC has the goods to at least try to keep this game close and push this thing past the total. Thunder come in scoring 124.6 ppg over their last 5. All 5 going OVER the total. They are also giving up 118.3 ppg on the road this season. I just don't feel the books have adjusted the number enough for this one. Give me the OVER 232.5! |
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01-12-23 | Michigan v. Iowa -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 I'll gladly take my chances with Iowa as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines on Thursday. After losing 3 straight and falling to 0-3 in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes have won two straight. First they knocked off Indiana at home before going on the road and securing an impressive 76-65 road win over Rutgers. Iowa is a very tough team to beat on their home floor. They are 7-2 at home this season with both losses coming during a stretch when their best player, Kris Murray, was sidelined with an injury. I don't see Michigan being able to keep pace offensively on the road against this Iowa team with Murray in the lineup. Michigan is coming off a 53-59 road loss to in-state rival Michigan State and were lucky to only lose by 6. They trailed by 14 with just over 8 minutes to play and had just 28 points over the first 30+ minutes of that game. Give me the Hawkeyes -5.5! |
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01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5 I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! |
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01-11-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Celtics | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Pelicans +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road dog against the Celtics. I just think Boston is getting way too much respect in this spot. At the same time, I think New Orleans is being way undervalued right now due to the fact that both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are out with injuries. People don't realize just how deep and talented this Pelicans team is. Boston is also playing shorthanded without one of their most important pieces in Marcus Smart. They also could be missing big man Robert Williams in this one. The books have really started to inflate the number on this team and as a result they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. I know it's not as big a game with Durant now sidelined, but I got to think the Celtics will have a hard time not looking ahead to tomorrow's game in Brooklyn. Boston is just 1.5-games up on the Nets for the No. 1 seed in the East and Kyrie isn't exactly a fan favorite with this organization. I just think it all adds up to New Orleans keeping this within the number. Give me the Pelicans +9.5! |
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01-11-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
8* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Indiana Pacers +4.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the Pacers as a 4.5-point road dog against the Knicks. I'm going to keep riding this Indiana team until they show signs of slowing down. Pacers come into this game having won 8 of their last 10 and are 8-1-1 ATS during this stretch. Tyrese Haliburton seems to have taken a big step forward and Indiana hit big on rookie shooting guard Benedict Mathurin. Fellow rookie, Andrew Nembhard has also played really well. This is a much more talented and deep team than people realize. Knicks are a team I just don't have a ton of faith in. They aren't great and they aren't bad, but often will be overpriced when they are doing well because of the market they play in. New York comes in having won 4 of their last 5 and in the lone loss they lost by just 4 to the Bucks. Thing is, two of those wins were against the Rockets and Spurs. Another was against a depleted Suns team at home. The one decent win was at Toronto and the Raptors are 4-11 SU over their last 15 games. Give me the Pacers +4.5! |
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01-10-23 | Magic v. Blazers OVER 229.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! |
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01-10-23 | Oklahoma State +5.5 v. Kansas State | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma State Cowboys +5.5 I'll take the 5.5 points with Oklahoma State as they head to Manhattan Tuesday night to face off against Kansas State. I just think this is the perfect time to sell-high on the Wildcats. K-State comes into this game 14-1 and on a 8-game winning streak. I just have to wonder how much gas they have left in the tank. Wildcats opened up Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with a 82-76 OT win at home against West Virginia. Two days later they played that crazy shootout in a 116-103 win at Texas. This past Saturday they played another OT game at home against Baylor, sneaking out a 97-95 win. Oklahoma State is 9-6 but have played the 24th toughest schedule to date. They are just 1-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss at Kansas and a 10-point loss at home to Texas. Note that they were tied 44-44 with under 7 minutes to play against the Longhorns and were outscored from their on 12-2. The only other loss by more than 5-points was a true road game against a very good UConn team. Simply too much value here to pass up. Give me Oklahoma State +5.5! |
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01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers -3.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I just think this is the perfect time to buy-low on Los Angeles. Clippers come into this game having lost 5 straight. They had that awful showing in Thursday's 91-122 loss to the Nuggets and then neither Paul George or Kawhi played in Friday's 115-128 loss at Minnesota. Kawhi is expected back for this game and I believe George will play, despite showing up as questionable in the injury report. I just feel that's more of them just making up an injury to get the league off their back for him not playing in the second of a back-to-back. So this is really the Clippers first time to respond to their poor effort in the loss to the Nuggets. I just think when this team has all their pieces, they are one of the best teams in the Western Conference. It's also not like the Hawks come into this matchup playing great basketball. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 and are in the much worse scheduling spot, playing their 4th straight game on the road in a week. We just saw them way overvalued in their last game, listed as a 3-point favorite and losing 114-130 to the Lakers. Hawks are just 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games. Give me the Clippers -3.5 |
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01-08-23 | Hornets v. Pacers -5 | 111-116 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS MASSACRE: Indiana Pacers -5 I don't understand the line move here. This line opened at Indiana -7 and has dropped down to 5? They could be without stud rookie Bennedict Mathurin, who has been a force for them off the bench and is third on the team in scoring at 17.4 ppg. I just don't feel that his absence will have a big impact on their game against the Hornets. Scoring is not going to be an issue against this Charlotte team. Hornets have allowed 119 or more points in 14 of their last 16 games. Indiana had scored 122 or more in 5 straight before scoring just 108 against the Blazers, where they couldn't buy a basket from deep. This is also a very deep Pacers team, who has a number of guys that can pick up the scoring slack if needed. I think you also got to factor in how well point guard Tyrese Haliburton is playing of late. Guy is quietly averaging 20.4 ppg and 10.2 apg, shooting 40.4% from 3 (averaging 3 made 3's a game) and is T-3rd in the league with 1.7 steals/game. Give me the Hornets -5! |
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01-08-23 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
8* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER: 76ers/Pistons OVER 229.5 I'll take my chances on the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Pistons. Philly cashed in plenty of OVER's with Embiid on the floor, but I feel they are an even stronger OVER team without him. Embiid is an unstoppable force on the offensive end, but he's also a beast inside defensively. I believe the 76ers lose more on defense than they do on offense when he's out. Their offense also uses less clock not having to feed the ball inside to him and let him play 1-on-1. OVER has hit in 7 of their last 8 games. In the last two without Embiid they combined for 255 with the Pacers and 238 with the Bulls. Detroit's not a team I think they are going to turn it up defensively and that defenses figures to struggle even more without Embiid on the road. Pistons are also not a good defensive team. Detroit has allowed 119 or more in 6 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 229.5! |
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01-08-23 | Iowa v. Rutgers -5.5 | 76-65 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -5.5 I'll gladly take my chances with Rutgers laying just 5.5 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes aren't a bad team by any means, but they are definitely down from the caliber a team they have put on the floor the past few seasons. I played on them at home against Indiana in their last game. I just don't trust them on the road, especially without Patrick McCaffrey. They need a guy like that's scoring against this Rutgers defense, especially away from home. Scarlet Knights are No. 3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in opponents effective FG%. Rutgers offense isn't great, but this is an Iowa defense that isn't very good and one that struggles to defend down low. Hawkeyes are 210th in the country in defending 2-pt attempts. I just don't think Iowa's offense will be good enough for them to keep this close. Give me Rutgers -5.5! |
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01-07-23 | Jazz -1.5 v. Bulls | 118-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NBA Oddsmakers PUBLIC TRAP PLAY OF THE DAY: Utah Jazz -1.5 This line stinks and it keeps getting worse. Chicago opened as a 1-point favorite and now it's Utah that's favored. It makes no sense. Bulls are off a 126-112 win at 76ers last night, improving to 7-3 in their last 10 games. Utah had lost 5 straight before winning at Houston on Wednesday. Beating a bad Rockets team in a game they were favored by 6.5 is not exactly something that's going to make the public want to bet the Jazz at basically a pick'em on the road. They are going to line up to play Chicago. Clearly someone knows something or has a pretty good insight into this game for Utah to be favored. It's just so far off what you would think it should be, you have to take the other side. This does feel like a bit of a flat spot for Chicago, playing on no rest after a gauntlet 4-game stretch in 7 days, where they played a home-and-home vs the Cavs, hosted the Nets and finished up with last night's game in Philly. Utah's best player is Lauri Markkanen. The former Bull, who has to feel a bit like the team gave up on him to early. Certainly looks that way. He's going to be motivated to play well in this one and teams typically follow the lead of their best player. Give me the Jazz -1.5! |
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01-06-23 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | 110-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wizards/Thunder OVER 231.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Wizards and Thunder. I don't see these two teams having any trouble eclipsing this mark. OKC is averaging 118.3 ppg at home this season and come in averaging 120.8 ppg over their last 5. The average combined score in their home games is 233.9. Thunder are allowing 118.6 ppg in their last 5 and will be facing a Wizards offense that has put in an average of 118.6 ppg in their last 5. OVER is 4-2 in OKC's last 6 games with one of those UNDERS being in a game where they combined for 234 points (total was 238.5). In their last 6 games, 5 have seen a combined score of 234 or more. OVER is 30-14 in the Wizards last 44 non-conference games and 23-10 in their last 33 after playing 2 straight on the road. OVER is 26-12 in the Thunder's last 38 at home in non-conference games. Give me the OVER 231.5 |
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01-06-23 | Blazers v. Pacers OVER 236 | 99-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Blazers/Pacers OVER 236 I'll take my chances with the OVER 236 in Friday's matchup between the Blazers and Pacers. I really like these teams to at the very least get into the 240s. Just look at how high-scoring Indiana's games have been of late. In the Pacers last 5 games, they are scoring 128.6 ppg and giving up 122.6 ppg for an average combined score of 251.2 ppg. As you might have guessed, Indiana likes to push the pace and should be able to dictate the tempo at home in this one. In their last 4 games they have faced 3 of the slower teams in terms of pace in the Cavs, Clippers and 76ers. They combined for 261 with Cleveland, 261 against LA and 255 with Philly. OVER is 16-4 in the Pacers last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 at home vs a marginal winning team (WP between 51% to 60%). OVER is also 24-11 in Portland's last 35 non-conference road games. Give me the OVER 236! |
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01-06-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 126-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +4.5 I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 4.5 on the road against a 76ers team that will be without one of the best players in the game in Joel Embiid. Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball of the season here of late. Chicago is 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games. Two of those losses were by 1-point at home to the Cavs and by 11 in OT at Cleveland. They just beat a red-hot Nets team 121-112 as 5-point home dog last time out. 76ers were able to win without Embiid on Wednesday, knocking off the Pacers 129-126, but needed OT to secure the victory and did not cover. Philly has enough scorers to put up points without Embiid, but they really miss him on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but are connecting on 48.7% of their attempts for the season and have shot 48% or better from the field in 9 of their last 10 games. Only exception was against a Bucks defense that is one of the best in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. Harden, Maxey, Harris and Melton all played 37 or more minutes in that OT win against the Pacers and only 7 guys had more than 20 minutes. I just think their lack of depth and not having Embiid puts them in a tough spot here. Give me the Bulls +4.5! |
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01-05-23 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 227.5 | Top | 91-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! |
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01-05-23 | Indiana v. Iowa -1 | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa Hawkeyes -1 I'll take my chances with Iowa as a mere 1-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Some might think the Hawkeyes shouldn't be favored in this game. Iowa has lost their last 3 and starter Patrick McCaffery is taking a personal leave of absence. I like this team to respond in a big way in this game. Indiana has injury concerns of their own. Trayce-Jackson Davis has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. They are also without 3rd leading scorer Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg), who also leads the teams in assists (4.9 apg). We saw the Hawkeyes annihilate a very good Iowa State team at home without their best player in Kris Murray. McCaffery was a solid contributor, but not a loss they can't overcome. They still got their 3 best scorers on the floor in Murray, Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins. This team as a whole just shoots the ball better at home. They are shooting 44.7% from the field and 31.8% from the 3-point line on the season. Those spike to 48.9% and 36.2% at home. Give me Iowa -1! |
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01-04-23 | Missouri +7.5 v. Arkansas | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Missouri Tigers +7.5 I'll take my chances with Missouri as a 7.5-point road dog against Arkansas. The Tigers just continue to get disrespected by the books. Missouri is 12-1 and come into this game off 3 straight Top 50 wins, beating UCF, Illinois and most recently Kentucky. They annihilated the Fighting Illini 93-71 on a neutral floor and crushed Kentucky 89-75 at home. I get playing on the road is tough, but this line is suggesting that Arkansas is the far superior team. I'm just not buying it. Yes the Razorbacks are 11-2 and ranked No. 13 in the country, but their only two Top 50 wins are against San Diego State (in OT) and Oklahoma. I not only think the Tigers cover here, but I give them a legit shot to win this game outright. Give me Missouri +7.5! |
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01-04-23 | Spurs v. Knicks OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! |
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01-04-23 | Grizzlies v. Hornets +8 | 131-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
8* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Charlotte Hornets +8 I'll take my chances with the Hornets catching 8-points at home against the Grizzlies. It's been a dreadful start to the 2022-23 season for Charlotte, who comes into this game at just 10-28 and a lousy 3-13 over their last 16 games. The big reason I'm taking a shot on the Hornets, is the biggest reason their record is what it is, is the laundry list of injuries this team has had to deal with. Their best player, LaMelo Ball, has only played 14 games Terry Rozier has missed double-digit games and Dennis Smith Jr just returned to play in his 16th game of the season. Even with Gordon Hayward (not playing well anyway) not likely to play tonight, I think this is as healthy as Charlotte has been all season. I think they show up with a lot of fight here against Memphis. Grizzlies have been playing well, but this is just too many for them to be laying on the road. Give me the Hornets +8! |
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01-04-23 | Thunder +2.5 v. Magic | 115-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 I'll take my chances with the Thunder as a 2.5-point road dog against the Magic on Wednesday. I just don't think Orlando has any business being favored in this game. Orlando, who is already without the likes of Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, will not have Franz Wagner, Mortiz Wagner or Bol Bol for this game. So while OKC is playing in the second of a back-to-back on the road, they should have more than enough here to get the win against a depleted Magic side. Orlando has lost 3 straight coming in, including a 100-119 loss at home to the Wizards in their last game. They are scoring just 104 ppg and giving up 123 ppg during this losing streak. OKC just put up 150 last night on Boston. Give me the Thunder +2.5! |
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01-04-23 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 63-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Oklahoma Sooners -3 I'll take my chances with Oklahoma as a slim 3-point home favorite against Iowa State on Wednesday. We played on and won with the Cyclones in Saturday's 77-62 win over Baylor as a 2-point home dog. ISU is just one of those teams that I think is a great team to back at home and fade on the road. A lot of teams fit this bills in the Big 12 and Big 10. The only true road game the Cyclones have played this season was at in-state rival Iowa and they lost that game 56-75 with the Hawkeyes not having their best player in Kris Murray. Now they have to go on the road against a good and hungry Oklahoma team that is coming off a 1-point loss at home to highly ranked Texas. This is a team that has been playing well. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games with the other two losses coming by 4-points at Villanova and by 10 on a neutral court against a very good Arkansas team. Give me the Sooners -3! |
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01-03-23 | Kings v. Jazz -2.5 | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Utah Jazz -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Jazz as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Kings. Utah comes in having lost 4 straight, but it's not like they haven't been competitive during the losing streak. All 4 losses have come by 5 points or less. One of those being a 125-126 loss at Sacramento last Friday. Not only will the Jazz be motivated here to get back in the win column, but they are going to want revenge on the Kings. I think they get it, as this is not an ideal spot for Sacramento. Kings will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and second straight on the road in one of the more tougher places to play, especially if you come in any kind of bad rest spot. Making matters worse for Sacramento, is they face a rested Utah team that is playing on a full two days of rest. Give me the Jazz -2.5! |
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01-03-23 | Ole Miss +12.5 v. Alabama | Top | 62-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5 I'll take my chances with Ole Miss as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 7 Alabama. I just think this is a few too many points for the Crimson Tide to be laying in this spot. Crimson Tide are off a double-digit road win against Mississippi State to open up SEC play, improving to 11-2. I think this team might be feeling themselves a little too much and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown against Kentucky. It makes it that much easier to not give the Rebels enough respect when they come in having lost their last two and are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. They do have a bad loss at home to North Alabama during this stretch, but the other 4 losses are against teams ranked 32nd or better at KenPom and all of those losses came by 11 or fewer points. For as good as Alabama has been, their only win in their last 9 games by more than 13 points was a 20-point win at home over Jackson State. They 13-point win was against South Dakota State. I expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, I just think they would need to play their very best to win here by more than the number. Give me Ole Miss +12.5! |