Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15ht in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 Conference Finals games.

DALLAS is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. Under is 47-23 in Mavericks last 70 games as an underdog.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 103-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

.

The dominance of home teams continued in this series as the Mavericks cruised to a 113-86 win over the Suns and Im betting nothing changes in game 7. 

PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

PHOENIX is 19-8 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicks in at +10.7. 

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 29-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate fro bettors with the average ppg  diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on the ATS line offering. 

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

Kris Middleton remains out for the Bucks. Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 14-15 SU and 12-17 ATS in games without Middleton. This situation has put alot of pressure on on. Antetokounmpo and he has had to carry this team on his shoulders for much of this series, and watching him in game 6 it became obvious to me that he was exhausted and banged up. Considering this Im betting the Celtics have the edge here in game 7. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-10 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 21-7 ATS  after a combined score of 205 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to win 

The Golden State Warriors came out flat at the worst possible time in game 5 of this series losing 134-95 on the road. They had the opportunity to take advantage of a Memphis team playing without their top player Morant and instead fell flat on their faces. That Im betting wont happen again.  GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS  in home games after allowing 130 points or more. 

Kerr is 14-2 ATS   in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

 NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Phoenix Suns are one victory away from a second straight trip to the Western Conference finals and now Im betting with blood in the water are dangerous opponents in this spot . They made the adjustment they needed to vs Dallas and beat them 110-80 last time out, and that scheme series is highly probable to continue tonight. 

PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 22-9 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 22-54 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Suns are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer event, since game 1 with the hosts holding an advantage in their own back yard and Im betting nothing changes tonight in Philly. 

 Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MIAMI) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more points are 8-42 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. 

Play on the 76ers to win/cover

Memphis in game 4 found a way to stay competitive without Ja Morant in the lineup, but I doubt they will be that good again as they rallying cry will fade as will Golden States previous inability to read the Grizzlies defensive schemes. What Im saying is that the Warriors will adjust here and get the win . MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996.

Kerr is 15-5 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-63 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

There was enough aggressive offensive action in game 4 of this series, with a combined 224 points scored for me to consider this totals offering as an  opportunity to cash an over bet.   Im betting on the Celtics being extremely aggressive tonight offensively knowing that the Bucks Kris Middleton is still not playing and have had time to access their best approaches against the Bucks ie Game 4s impressive victory.  I know Middleton is not a lockdown defender by any means but he is an excellent team defender and a key part of Milwaukee's defensive schemes due to his length and overall versatility, so with him continuing to be out you can expect Boston to be in a run and gun mode , which  will force the Bucks into opening up offensively or be blown of the court. 

Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

Over is 19-9-1 in Celtics last 29 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE/ BOSTON) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 198-122 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Play OVER 

After watching the Celtics come back and almost take game 3 of this series losing 103-101 and than  take command with a  game 4  116-108 victory it became obvious to me the momentum had swung into the Celtics favor. With Kris Middleton still on the sidelines for Milwaukee the Celtics are a strong play , especially here at home.Bucks are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Celtics are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 playoff games as a favorite. BOSTON is 11-1 ATS ( versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.

BOSTON is 11-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to cover 

The home team has won every game and the series is tied 2-2 going into Game 5 on Tuesday night in Phoenix and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Suns super star lead the team with 35 points in the game 4 loss, but  as quoted is ready for a the ups and downs of any post season series QUOTE: "We understand that it's a series," Booker said. "It's the playoffs for a reason. "We're going to make our adjustments. ... I think we just have to flush it and move on to the next game." END QUOTE. 

PHOENIX is 14-0 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a average pgg diff clicking in at +15.6 . 

PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

PHOENIX is 18-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under +10. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer affair to this point and Im betting home court advantage to once again be golden as the 76ers visit south Florida to take on the Heat. Note:76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and  are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. 76ers are also  0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Interesting anomaly:  PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-22 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. MIAMI is 20-7 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. 

NBA Road underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams ( 36.5% or more ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 11-32 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

 Ja Morant suffered a knee injury and is officially doubtful and expected to miss Game 4, according coach Taylor Jenkins. This is a big blow for the Grizzlies both mentally and on the court as the young super star is heart beat of the team. Im betting Golden State takes this opportunity and makes the most of it in what should likely be a conclusive DD win much like in Game 3 .Grizzlies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a average ppg diff clicking in at +11.2.  GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more this season with the average pgg diff coming in at +12.2. 

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread are 174-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Im betting on key cog Giannis Antetokounmpo   to help lead Milwaukee to a 3-1 series advantage when the Bucks host the Boston Celtics on Monday night in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. In game 3 he potted 42 points, 12 rebounds and had eight assists and his dominance should continue tonight vs a defense that he matches up well against. Bucks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games  and  are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Bucks have lost all 3 games here at home this week. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Sixers stormed back in game 3 of this series with a convincing win  and proved that they are formidable opponents for the Heat especially here at home where Im betting the 76ers have the edge behind the energy of their vocal fans.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

PHILADELPHIA is 47-34 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Philadelphia to win /cover

Dallas rebounded at home in Game 3 with a 103-94 win over the Suns to get this series to 2-1. Trying to replicate  another victory Im betting will not come so easily for the Mavs here in game 4. The Mavs allowed an   average of 125 points in the first two games and played with non stop energy in game 3, but like i said above replicating that type of energy wont be easy against a  Suns side, that can easily rebound into explosive mode at any time. 

PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PHOENIX is 16-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Williams is 22-8 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PHOENIX.

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.Suns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Semifinals games.

Suns are 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.Suns are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.

Play on the Suns to win. 

The young Grizzlies left everything on the floor as they escaped with a 106-101 late surge victory in game 2 . Now in enemy territory in a hostile environment, vs an experienced post season team, Im betting an emotional letdown scenario is a viable scenario here in game 3, which will effect their ability to stay at the same level of energy the home side will have.  GOLDEN STATE is 20-9 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and are  16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

Kerr is 13-1 ATS  in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - playing with 3 or more days rest, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 130-79 L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Celtics evened the series with a win at home last time out, and now Im expected a bounce back by the Bucks here at home in game 3 in true zig zag theory .  Note: Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and  are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 80-20 L/5 seasons for  80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 52-25 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games are 25-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Suns matchup very well against the Mavs as was evident in game 2 of this series and have an edge here even as visitors. Suns are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Dallas. PHOENIX is 11-1 straight up against DALLAS as visitors over the last 3 seasons. 

PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 14-3 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

PHOENIX is 22-7 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

PHOENIX is 21-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 14-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover /win 

The first game in this series saw a combined score of 235 points go on the board and Im betting on rinse and repeat type score here again in game 2. The Suns will attack non stop and force a Dallas side that ranked 30th in pace this season and 24th in offense out of their comfort zone and have to open up or be blown off the court like in game 1 . 

Suns are 5-1 over L/6 overall.

PHOENIX is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 10-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.8 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 17-8 OVER  in home games after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored.

Play on OVER 

With key cog Joel Embiid out of the Sixers lineup, they are very over matched and vulnerable to another DD beatdown at the hands of a deep Miami Heat squad. Miami is 5-1 SU/L/6 at home in this series. 

PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 . 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

The Warriors squeaked out a 117-116 win and game 1 of this series, and have the guns to turn the trick here again in game 2.  GOLDEN STATE is 35-19 ATS L/54 off a road win by 3 points or less . Kerr is 15-4 ATS  in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. Jenkins is 8-20 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of MEMPHIS.

Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

GOLDEN STATE is 36-17 ATS L/53  vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season .

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-71 L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Golden state ranks 3rd in ppg allowed and 1st in the league in defensive rating and only 15th in the league in offensive output, so D, is what got the Warriors here, and their defense will remain key to their possible advancement into the next round vs a explosive Memphis side. This above hypothesis is what Im basing an under wager on , plus a long list of trends that also support it. 

GOLDEN STATE is 40-21 UNDER in road games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996 with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. .GOLDEN STATE is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. Kerr is 34-19 UNDER (+13.1 Units) off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 51-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 The Celtics came out flat in game 1 of this series and played an absolute clunker losing a 101-89 count vs a Bucks side that probably played their best defensive game of the play offs. Now Im betting on the Celtics bouncing back with a big effort here and for the defending champs to have a regressive event after playing such an emotionally charged game 1.  Note: BOSTON is 9-0 ATS  after scoring 95 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 24-9 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-57 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

Dallas is a fine team, and matched up well against the Utah Jazz in their last series, but I dont believe at this point that the Mavs do not matchup all that well vs the Suns as was evident by losing  three times this season to Phoenix . With  the previously injured Devon Booker back in the lineup for the Suns they have an edge here on their own home floor. 

Suns are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

PHOENIX is 27-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-87 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Phoenix to cover

Previously injured Jimmy Butler (knee), is expected to  return at home to face the Sixers on Monday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Meanwhile, the Sixers with be without key offensive cog Joel Embiid (concussion). The Sixers went 6-8 without Embiid during the regular season and are at a disadvantage here vs a deep side. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-19 ATS off a road win this season (Took To out on the road last time out) NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are just 19-48 L/26 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 48-7 L/26 seasons with a pgg diff of +9.3 which qualifies on this offered ATS line.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 32-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.8. 

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 5-33 L/5 seasons for a 87% go against conversion rate for bettors with a ppg diff og -8 points which qualifies on this ATS offering, 

Play on the Heat to cover 

Golden State ranks 3rd in ppg allowed in the league and is ranked 15th in ppg offense, which tells you this team despite of some top tier offensive talent has gotten this far based on a top tier brand of D, and nothing will change here against the Grizzlies. At this number we still have value for an under wager and wont be deterred by all the attention centered on how explosive offensively the home side is. 

GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 218 ppg.  GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored.Kerr is 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 211.7 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 20-8 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Five of the lat 6 meetings here in Memphis between these two sides has gone under the set total. 

Play UNDER 

We are down to the nitty gritty here in this series, as Memphis can advance  with a win tonight on the road in Minnesota. With that said, Im looking for a a more conservative tentative game in transition that translates into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 games as a home underdog.

MEMPHIS is 20-9 UNDER versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams are evenly matched according to my current numbers, with home court advantage Im betting being the difference maker.

Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Timberwolves are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Since Devon Booker went down the Suns have not looked like the same team, and that was very evident the last time these teams played here in New Orleans  as the Pelicans won  by 15 points. Im betting the desperation of the do or die situation here tonight will have the Pelicans ready to extend to this series to a final game 7. 

Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NEW ORLEANS is 38-24 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Pelicans to cover 

All the tilts in this series have been fairly high scoring with all 4 games going over the set total. With series victory at hand for the Warriors Im betting they come here firing darts. This will force Denver into opening up and chasing as they fight for their lives. This could easily be the highest scoring game in the series. 

DENVER is 13-4 OVER   when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 230 ppg scored.DENVER is 9-1 OVER  in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 23-9 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. DENVER is 10-2 OVER versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 OVER  when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 3 or more consecutive overs are 122-76 OVER L/26 seasons for a 62%. conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This has been a big time back and forth series between two young talented teams. The Wolves played lights in the last game in this series and won. Now Im betting on a bounce back scenario here tonight, at home where the Grizzlies have thrived this season, as is evident by a  31-12 SU record along  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +9.1 . 

MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MEMPHIS is 14-3 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.

Interesting anomaly, MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs are 102-163 L/26 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Miami Heat are the far superior side here according to my power rankings and for the most part have proved that prognosis correct during this series. More of the same one sided action is my call here again tonight in South Florida. 

MIAMI is 18-4 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 1-12 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-14 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

This usually offensively explosive Utah side has been really tamed by the Mavericsk top tier defense, and now with home court advantage on their side and Doncic back in the lineup the home team looks very much like a viable side to back on a short fav line. Note: Not only has the Jazz offense faltered, but their perimeter D continues to be exposed like in last seasons post season tilts. Advantage Dallas. 

UTAH is 3-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 9-23 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

DALLAS is 11-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season. DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 36-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to. cover 

This is it for Brooklyn- do or die. Im betting on do, and for the Nets to extend this series to game 5. Im obviously expecting Kyrie Irving to do as well as he did in game 1 and for Durant to finally break through after being continually frustrated by the Celtics . Based on what we have seen in the series so far I know the Nets do not look like a viable option. However,  this is a more talented Brooklyn team than both Denver and Toronto and both sides have found a way to extend their series and Im betting the Nets do as well. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, off a home loss against a division rival are 26-3 L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games are 25-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Suns fell asleep at the proverbial wheel in game two their series vs the Pelicans, but thanks to bering nudged out of a coma, they are now fully awake and ready to perform at a top level here in a pivotal game in this series. key to this game is  suns C  Paul  who was masterful in Game 3. He scored 28 on 10-18 shooting. The top tier  guard also  dished out 14 assists. With Devon Booker out Im betting on Ayton and Chris Paul doing a double shuffle and to pick-and-roll all night against a inexperienced New Orleans defense.

  PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 33-19 ATS versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 13-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

PHOENIX is 21-6 ATS in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Suns are 6-1 SU/ATS L/7 visits to New Orleans.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

 Phoenix shot 4-of-26 from long distance last time out and still 114 points on the board .   Im betting they bounce back and drastically increase their downtown shooting and for the offense behind Ayton and Paul to pick and roll all night long and to force a desperate Pelicans side in to opening up in a game I like to eclipse this total.  The last 6 games here on the Bayou between these teams has gone over the total, and a rinse and repeat situation is a viable outcome again, 

NEW ORLEANS is 29-16 OVER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season are 73-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Atlanta made a miraculous comeback in game 3 of this series,  after falling behind by 16 points late in the 3rd quarter after a 21-0 Miami run, and took a 111-110 victory. Unfortunately however for the Hawks they spent alot of energy in that come from behind win, and will now find it difficult to come up here with the same effort against a side that Im betting is more talented and wide awake now after that above mentioned collapse. I know Kyle Lowry may not be 100% with a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play and even if he does not I still like the Heats depth to get the job done.  

MIAMI is 17-4 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season. 

NBA Road favorites (MIAMI) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a upset loss as a favorite are 108-62 ATS L/28 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

The defending champs have made adequate adjustments of the course of this series to be able to easily deal with whatever the Bulls can muster. That was evident in game 3 of this series as the Bucks romped to a 111-81 victory. Im betting the Bulls will perform better here today but it wont be enough. Also no Buck players breached the 20 point plateau in a team effort. Im betting super star Antetokounmpo comes back alot stronger in this tilt and helps lead his team to victory. 

Milwaukees HC Budenholzer is 19-3 ATS L/22 in road games after 2 consecutive division games in all games he has coached . 

MILWAUKEE is 20-9 ATS as a road favorite this season.

CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 72-27 ATS L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 7-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucs to cover

After losing game 1 of this series, to the Wolves , the Grizzlies have bounced back and taken control of this series, and Im betting on more relentless two way pressure from them here again tonight. in Minnesota  MEMPHIS is 34-20 ATS  as a favorite this season.MEMPHIS is 24-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 24-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota.Grizzlies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

Grizzlies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 1 days rest.

Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the Memphis to cover 

This it do or die for the Raptors today and just like in game 3 Im betting they leave everything on the floor and get us the cover. 

Nurse is 25-8 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of TORONTO.

TORONTO is 8-1 ATS  in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS  off a road win this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TORONTO) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season 35-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (TORONTO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite and 51-21 ATS for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

 The Pelicans surprised the Suns with a big time performance in game 2 of this series, and now Im betting the Suns will be primed for a big bounce back effort here in the Bayou this Friday night.  NBA team (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 39-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, with a losing record. are 10-32 ATS L/5 season for a 76% go against conversion rate. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.PHOENIX is 20-6 ATS in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 12-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

Chicago has played the Bucks tough this season, and upset them in game 2 in a closely contested tilt. I know the Bulls seem to have figured out how to be competitive and thrive against the Bucks , but the Bucks are also learning why they're getting frustrated by the Bulls and Im betting we see the visitors and NBA Champs finding a way to get the job done . Remember the Bulls have  been very inconsistent for a good part of the 2nd half of this season, and on a micro handicapping basis might seem to have an edge because of K Middletons absence from the Bucks lineup.  But the truth is Milwaukee is still the deeper team and must be respected here as short favs. 

From a SRS perspective Milwaukee ranks 7th  at 3.22 in the NBA while the Bulls rank 20th with a -0.38 mark. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Chicago’s 4-8 home-underdog ATS mark, is tied for the fourth-worst covering percentage in the NBA this season. 

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 39-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Bucks to cover 

The Raptors after 2 straight DD losses in Philadelphia are now in desperation mode here in game 3. Needless to say the Raptors need a victory, and Im betting they leave everything on the florr tonight and get us the cover. TORONTO is 23-9 ATS L/32  after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more.

NBA  team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against division rivals, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 12-23 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after allowing 63 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 42-22 L/25 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

TORONTO is 5-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons at home.

Take the points with Toronto 

The Pelicans have tried to pay attention to strong defensive play down the stretch this season, and here against an explosive Suns side, an even more concerted and very physical  defensive effort will be employed. The Pelicans do not matchup well in a shootout scenario , so Im betting on them really trying to slow things down. Meanwhile, the Suns can also thrive in this type of game, and will gladly saddle up and be equally as physical which will translate into most of the offensive  action here tonight to be in slow motion transition. 

Under is 6-0 in Suns last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games as a home favorite.Under is 9-1-1 in Suns last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Under is 9-2 in Pelicans last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 10-4 in Pelicans last 14 overall.

NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. Green is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 25-16 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 26-9 UNDER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 14-6 UNDER against Pacific division opponents this season with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2

Atlanta has a stiff test here trying to get offensive flow going against a Miami team that ranks 4th in ppg allowed in the league behind the 28th ranked pace. This in itself Im betting helps keep this game on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 9-0 in Hawks last 9 games as an underdog.

Under is 7-0 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog.

Under is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

ATLANTA is 18-6 UNDER L/24  in the 2nd game of a playoff series with a combined average of 186.7 ppg scored. Historically speaking ATLANTA is 55-29 UNDER  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 184.4 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 102-73 UNDER L/175 when the total is 210 to 219.5 with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored.

Under is 24-8 in the last 32 meetings in Miami

Play UNDER 

Im going to keep this selection explantation brief. The Hawks simply and generally do matchup well vs the Heat, and here on the road where the Hawks have struggled against top tier sides are once again in trouble. The Heat dominated game 1 as the final 115-91 score would indicate. Rinse and repeat type game highly like to be duplicated here. 

Heat are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 playoff games as a favorite.

ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS   in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

 Hawks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami

Play on Miami to cover 

With Luka Doncic downgraded to doubtful Monday vs Utah ( Calf ) the Jazz become  viable option here as road favs. The Jazz dominated game 1 of this series, without the Euro star in the Mavs   lineup and a rinse and repeat scenario is highly likely, with the zig zag theory taking a back seat for the mean time. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off a home loss, in April games are 66-122 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, second half of the season are 31-4 with the average margin ppg diff registering in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS line as a viable trend. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover 

Previous to game 1 of this series the Raptors and the Sixers took part in 3 straight games that were decided by exactly 5 points and prior to that they played 4 straight games that were deiced by 6, 7,7,7  points. All in total Toronto won 4 of those 7  tilts SU, and in true zig zag theory are a viable cover option here in game 2 of this series according to my projections. From a SRS perspective  the Raptors rank 11th in the NBA with a 2.38 mark, while Philadelphia ranks 9th with a 2.57 mark, making them virtually even in a neutral court environment , but with home floor advantage are rue 4.5 favs, which is gives us value on this offered line. The DD, win by the 76ers has tainted the line, and gives us an edge on a cover proposition. Note:Nurse is 22-8 ATS  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of TORONTO. TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Raptors are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after scoring 125 points or more are 18-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

The Suns finished their season with 5 straight unders, and going against a New Orleans  side that ranks 21st in pace and 21st in offensive ppg output Im betting the Suns 8th ranked D will hold down the fort and contribute to a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-12 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season are 221.1 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 UNDER (+7.5 Units) in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game this season with a combined average of 214.8 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 25-9 UNDER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 25-15 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.Green is 14-4 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Play UNDER 

The Heat are well rested while the Hawks have played hard in two wins to get to this point, and will now be in a letdown spot vs what my power rankings suggest is a superior side. 

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS   in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 15-3 ATS\ versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

Play on Miami to cover 

The last 3 meetings this season between these teams were deiced by 5 points with the one game back in November decided by 6 points with the Raptors covering all 4 games while winning 3 straight up. Im betting on another close game, and for the under rated Raptors getting us the cover today with a 5 point advantage which is key to this selection advantage . 

TORONTO is 29-15 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. TORONTO is 19-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. TORONTO is 25-16 ATS  in road games this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.

NBA home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 49-84 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Play Off basketball can be alot more physical than regular season NBA play, and thats what Im betting we will see here tonight between two offensive juggernauts . This Im betting directly gives us on an edge on this slightly bloated post season total. My own projections make this total closer to 233 giving us a full  possession plus advantage on the offered number. 

Under is 34-16 in Grizzlies last 50 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games as a favorite.

MEMPHIS is 17-7 UNDER  versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg going on the score board. MEMPHIS is 35-20 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - averaging 9 or more steals/game on the season, on Saturday games are 26-6 UNDER  L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 58-20 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Saturday games are 66-28 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 49-21 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors,

Play UNDER 

Entering the play offs the Clippers were red hot having won 5 straight games.   .Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The last time these teams mets here in  Los Angeles this season the Clippers won the final meeting, 119-100 at home on April 3. Rinse and repeat scenario here. 

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.

NEW ORLEANS is 10-27 ATS  L/37 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

The Hawks looked strong in the 2nd half of the season, and must be respected here at home. Note: Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and  are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record as well as  4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.McMillan is 20-7 ATS in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA. Meanwhile , Charlotte , also played well down the stretch, but Im betting home court advantage is the difference maker this evening. In 4 previous meetings this season,Charlotte won by margins of three and 10 points. Atlanta's victories came by 10 and 22 points. Rinse and repeat victory is what Im betting on here this evening in Georgia. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover

Play off basketball is here, and tonight we have an experienced post season group going up a young crew with virtually no NBA play off experience. I know Minnesota has been explosive offensively  for much of the season , but Im betting they will be slowed by a Clippers team that will want to be very physical and conservative here on the road , which Im betting leads to a combined score that is on the low side of this totals offering. 

LA CLIPPERS in L/12 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. ( Clippers lost to the Wolves at home  122-104 earlier this season)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss, with a winning record on the season.  49-22 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting on the Wolves coming out here and finishing their season off strong vs a side that they have revenge against for a loss they suffered to Chicago in the only game between these teams this season. The Wolves are 4-0 ATS L/4 last games of the season. 

CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bulls are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 54-101 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Miami enters into this game against state rivals Orlando having won 6 straight SU/ATS and will want to finish off their season in strong form here going into the play offs. The Magic lost last time out by DDs and have lost 4 of their L/5 by DDs, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.  ORLANDO is 1-9 ATS  in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.

ORLANDO is 10-22 ATS  as a home underdog this season with the average ppg at 11.1 diff.ORLANDO is 8-21 ATS in home games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons with a average ppg diff of 11.1 ppg. 

Miami Heat to cover 

I know the Bucks will rest players today before the play offs, but Im betting on a strong effort from who ever plays as the Bucks have revenge on board for two nasty losses to the Cavaliers this season by scores of 115-99 here in January, and 119-90 as hosts  in December . Add to that Cleveland is not in good form of late losing 3 straight and 5 of their L/6 and have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 as nothing seems to come easy for Cavs . Advantage taking points with the defending champs. Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MILWAUKEE is 14-4 ATS  in road games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Budenholzer is 44-16 ATS  vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA  team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-14 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Pelicans come in there with the 9th spot and a play off entry ticket if they can maintain their standing, so needless to say they will be playing hard tonight against a team that will want to be healthy and rested with the play offs starting next week. With the Grizzlies probably resting some players at different degrees tonight, they may not be playing with optimum output which gives is a viable opportunity to cash with the road dog. Add to that the Pelicans have revenge on board for a DD loss to the Grizzlies this season, and you have a very motivated side to back. Note: New Orleans is 4-1 ATS this season playing with revenge for a 20+ point loss. Also NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 40-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

New Orleans is 8-2 ATS L/10 overall.

New Orleans is 9-3 ATS L/12 in this series and have won 8 of those games SU. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Lakers are on tired legs after playing last night as they lost to the Warriors on the road. Note: Under is 9-2 in Lakers last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. Meanwhile, the Thunder usually pay more attention to viable defensive play when they are on the road like they are tonight, and this combined with the Lakers exhaustion will help keep this score to the low side of the number. Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 LA LAKERS are 34-22 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.1 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY in 38 games as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 OKLAHOMA CITY/(LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%), in April games are 28-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Bucks played last night against Boston, and won, but instead of being in a letdown spot, Im expecting them to push forward as they concentrate on  building momentum as the post season starts next week.  Im also betting that a revenge factor will aid my  choice of laying lumber with visiting Milwaukee, as they look for redemption for a 115-106 loss at home back in January. Note: The Bucks are 16-1 SU L/17  in this series, including 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS in games in which the Pistons own a  .200 win percentage or better. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS   in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33%  or less of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 14-52 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

This selection is based on my projection of 229 combined output giving us a full possession plus value to the under. Note: Memphis is off a hard fought loss vs Utah last time out, and now on tired legs playing in the high altitudes of the Mile High city Im betting they will be on a more conservative path especially in transition which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the offered total . 

DENVER  in their L/11 home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 227 ppg go on the scoreboard. Under is 16-7 in Nuggets last 23 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MEMPHIS is 14-4 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons.Jenkins is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48%  or more of their shots as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 27-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The Raptors have been cash machines for their betting  backers of late cashing 11 of their L/14 overall and  are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like the visiting 76ers. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and according to my power rankings are viable investment options here tonight at home where they have won 5 of their L/6 overall SU. 

76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. 

TORONTO is 15-7 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. TORONTO is 16-7 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent are 48-17 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to cover 

I know this is the  Suns  second night of back-to-back,  after rolling over the Lakers , but this is a    a young  well conditioned side  in top form thats wants to keep momentum moving upward as the play offs approach.The Suns have a 31-8 SU away record and must be respected here at Staples even with the Clippers Paul George playing lights out hoops. Bottom line is the Suns have more than enough firepower down the stretch to pull off a road victory here this evening. Note: Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. LA CLIPPERS are 0-9 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season. LA CLIPPERS are 4-17 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. 

PHOENIX is 13-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA  Road favorites (PHOENIX) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 30-6 ATS L/5  seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA Home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 51-100 L/26 seasons for a go against  66% conversion rate. 

Play on Phoenix to cover 

Two teams going through the motions and preparing for next season, take to the floor tonight as the Blazers visit the Thunder. Offensive inconsistencies remain an issue for both sides, and from a projection stand point my number (219) is substantially lower than this offering giving us a two full possession value.  Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 games as an underdog.Under is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 16-5 in Trail Blazers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

PORTLAND is 21-12 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with.a combined average of  219.4 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND/OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving lower tier  teams (25% to 40%), in April games are 26-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play UNDER 

After a hard fought loss to Dallas on Sunday afternoon Im betting the Bucks after two straight losses will be primed to get redemption and bounce back in a big way today vs a Chicago side they matchup well against. Note: Milwaukee ranks 8th with a 2.86 mark in the league in SRS while the Bulls rank 17th with a 0.13 average. 

Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.

Bulls are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.

Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game this season. MILWAUKEE is 26-13 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.Budenholzer is 42-16 ATS vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home underdogs (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 19-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 685 go against conversion rate for bettors.

N

BA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, in April games are 65-119 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons.Bucks are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Atlanta took out a very good Brooklyn team at home last time out fro their 6th straight victory, and could easily be in a emotional letdown spot here vs the Raptors on the road tonight. Playing away from Georgia has not been a positive experience for Hawks backers this season as is evident by their 13-25 overall ATS record as visitors and Im betting they will have problems with a Toronto side that had a 5 game win streak abruptly ended last time out by a top tier Miami side. Now in redemption mode Im betting on a Raptors crew that is 11-3 SU/ATS L/14 to come out here with a start to finish effort and get us the win and cover. Note: TORONTO is 17-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 9-21 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Hawks are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Hawks are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Toronto.

 NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 75-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

My own projections make the Pacers 4 point favs here and the long term trends on this type of matchup coordinate with my assessments. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 245 points or more are 44-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

With a week left in the regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink of not even reaching the play-in tournament. Ill say no more. Desperation on board here, as Davis and James are expected to be pushed into action. 

DENVER is 21-30 ATS  as a favorite this season.

DENVER is 0-8 ATS  after 4 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 2 seasons. Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 30-20 L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

LA LAKERS is 9-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Bucks enter this game dealing with some nagging injuries to K Middleton, Jrue Holiday Giannis Antetokounmpo . Yes, they are expected to play today, but they are less than 100%  and in a physical game against a top tier Mavericks defense their flow offensive could easily be interrupted. Meanwhile, Dallas was probably caught looking ahead to this Sunday afternoon tilt, and  lost at Washington last time out in ugly DD fashion as big road favs. Im expecting the Mavs to come out here with redemption in mind and to get their 3rd straight cover here in Milwaukee.  Note:DALLAS is 12-1 ATS  in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 20-9 ATS   after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.DALLAS is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season. Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.Mavericks are 4-0-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.

Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

After some struggles the Heat have won two in a row with the lat one coming against a red hot Boston Celtics squad. Now with momentum on their sides going into Chicago Im betting the Heat have an edge vs a Bulls side that exerted alot of effort last time out in a come from behind victory. After playing 5 straight games on the road prior to their last hard fought game, Im betting this is a letdown spot for them. 

MIAMI is 12-3 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season. MIAMI is 27-11 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season.

MIAMI is 24-8 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  after a combined score of 205 points or less this season.

NBA team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 265 points or more are 7-25 L/26 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 14-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

MIAMI is 7-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons and 3-0 SU /ATS L/3 visits to Chicago. 

Play on Miami to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

 Denver has won three tilts in a row, two of those games came against lowly Oklahoma city and Indiana while the Timberwolves have had a few issues of late , losing four of their last five games to fall behind in the race for one of the top six seeds and a guaranteed postseason spot. The one win in their recent negative run came against top tier opponent Dallas so its not like they have fallen off a cliff.  Now in desperation mode Im betting the young talented  Wolves come out here and leave everything on the court in the Mile High City tonight and get us the cover. Note: Minnesota has covered their L/4 visits to Denver. 

DENVER is 0-8 ATS after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 4-12 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home favorites (DENVER) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 12-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota  Wolves to cover 

The Pistons likely will be without forward Marvin Bagley III for the Friday game and this Im betting effects their offensive flow. Meanwhile, the Thunder are short handed and on tired legs and this will also effect their offensive output. Note: The Thunder will have just eight players available for the third consecutive game, with more players listed as out on the injury report (nine) than they'll be able to utilize. Advantage to the under. 

Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 overall. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 28-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY/DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 33-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Lakers are short handed with James and Davis both out, but are in desperation mode as they try to grab the last play off spot, as they battle San Antonio for the final position. Meanwhile, Utah has lost 5 straight and are off a torturous 6 game road trip that culminated in an ugly loss vs their nemesis the LA clippers last time out, after leading by DDs. With the Jazz still winded after their long road trip and on only one days rest, Im betting against them here, especially since they are expected to be without  Bojan Bogdanovic and reserves Hassan Whiteside and Danuel House Jr. . Guard Trent Forrest left the game against the Clippers early with a concussion, and is unlikely to play tonight. Note: Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.

UTAH is 19-35 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.UTAH is 13-22 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. UTAH is 6-16 ATS ( when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.UTAH is 9-20 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

LA LAKERS are 23-12 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 14-43 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

Lakers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Cavaliers are once again expected to without Mobley and Allan tonight and are on tired legs after playing last night and losing in a hard fought loss to Dallas last night, failing to cover in 6 straight . That is not a good recipe for success against a Hawks side that always seems to pick up their game at home vs above .500 sides. Note: ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 2-16 ATS after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 2 seasons.  CLEVELAND is 4-20 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 245 points or more are 43-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10 , which easily qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

 When top tier teams and conference rivals  meet at this time of the season, you can generally depend on seeing a strong brand of defensive basketball.  This is what Im betting on here as both teams prepare to drive towards the play offs in disciplined fashion .

BROOKLYN is 21-8 UNDER  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.3 ppg scored.BROOKLYN is 17-7 UNDER   in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 221.4 ppg going on the board.  BROOKLYN is 30-18 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg scored. Under is 8-2-1 in Nets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MILWAUKEE is 14-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 221 ppg scored. Under is 9-2-1 in Bucks last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games as an underdog. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 68-29 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in March games are 78-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Atlanta ranks 7th in ppg offense and 23rd in ppg defense, as they push forward with wreck-less run and gun action.  Considering the Thunders attention to defense has dropped off a cliff as the season has progressed as is evident by allowing 12 of their L/17 opponents to breach the 120 point plateau and 7 those 12 games have seen 130 or more points go on the board, its an easy decision to back a higher scoring tilt taking place. 

Over is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 230 (ATLANTA) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win against a division rival are 29-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Play OVER 

Kings play their best hoops vs lower tier sides as is evident by a recent  4-0 ATS run  in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile ,the Rockets are just  8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. With Davion Mitchell in top form for the Kings averaging ,   21.6 points and 7.2 assists  in his L/5 games with increased minutes the visitors seem to be inspired of late.

Silas is 19-39 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of HOUSTON

Gentry is 58-34 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached

NBA  team vs the money line (HOUSTON) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 9-36 L/5 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Sacramento to cover 

The Raptors seem to always bring their A game for games against strong sides and Im betting they have the edge here tonight. 

MINNESOTA is 4-14 ATS  after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher over the last 3 seasons.

TORONTO is 15-7 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

TORONTO is 9-1 ATS  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. TORONTO is 26-14 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Raptors are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 50-17 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

TORONTO is 21-4 L/25 SU straight up against MINNESOTA .

Play on the Toronto to cover 

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like Charlotte and have an edge here tonight.

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. 

NEW YORK is 35-14 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 23-7 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Mavs had had some cover issues on the road of late failing in their L/4 attempts to deliver the cash to their betting backers. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and according to my own numbers have an edge. 

DALLAS is 4-13 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 22-12 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 11-38 L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Sixers rank 26th in pace and 8th in ppg defense in the NBA and tonight, Im betting they try to grind this game down to a snails pace in an attempt to be competitive vs an explosive offensive side in the Bucks. At this time of the season, top tier teams like these two sides prepare for the play offs by paying alot more attention to defensive play especially in transition, and Im betting thats what we see tonight with these Eastern Conference rivals.Note:   Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a home favorite.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg going on the board. MILWAUKEE is 14-5 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-47 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

A month ago I would have laid the lumber with the Bulls , but in their current form they do not deserve the favorite role especially on the road .  I know the Wizards may not inspire bettors but they have shown an ability to competitive of late winning 3 of their L/5 straight up and have covered 4 of their L/6. Note: Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS in road games in March games this season.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS   in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

Play on Washington to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Grizzlies offense has been hitting on cylinders of late scoring eclipsing the 122 point plateau 7 of 9 times and scoring more than 130 points 4 times during that explosive 9 game run. Considering the Golden State Warriors current sub par defensive performances allowing 121 and 123 points in their L/2 games Im betting the Grizzlies unload again and score more than 122 points here according to my projections with the Warriors chasing and hitting at least +101 points in a tilt that very much favors an over wager.  Note: Memphis ranks 3rd in ppg offense and 3rd in pace and will dictate the speed of this game here tonight.MEMPHIS is 23-13 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 227.3 ppg, GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 OVER   in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with the combined average of 225.7 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 15-2 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233.3 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Boston took out Minnesota last night in start to finish action. the Celtics put forward alot of energy which followed uo win vs Utah and previous to that a west coast road swing. So now on tired legs in a back to back situation and this being their 7th game in 12 days Im betting the fresher Raptors have an edge. Note: Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  Raptors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

BOSTON is 0-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 30-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

Both sides have key players banged up and not playing, and it's down to  which side  has more bench strength. I know the prevailing opinion would be the Warriors are deeper, but Warriors have shown glitches without their super star Curry in the lineup and without him on the floor their cohesiveness is consistently questioned. With that said, I will take the points with the home side.  Golden State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 GOLDEN STATE is 18-30 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons. Kerr is 23-39 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in March games are 35-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

Play on Washington to cover