06-23-16 |
Hamilton v. Toronto UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
42-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HAM@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The CFL season kicks off at BMO Field in Toronto, with the Argos hosting bitter rivals Hamilton. This will be the Argos first game at their new facility, and there are a few things that might take some getting used to. One interesting bit of information is that the endzones at BMO Field are not the standard 20 yards deep, they only go back 18 yards from the goal line. This could prove to be problematic when it comes to redzone scoring, leaving the offense less room to work with. Think of all the touchdowns you see thrown to the back of the endzone, and just imagine that space not being there.
Traditionally we see low scoring games in the first week of the season, with teams still trying to get settled on offense. The Argos have trended under at a rate of 23-9 in their last 32 games in Week 1, while the Tiger Cats have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 13 season openers. The two Eastern Conference rivals have gone under in four of the last five meetings, including a 25-22 home win for the Tiger Cats in the last meeting.
Hamilton comes into this game without starting quarterback Zach Collaros, and his replacement Jeremiah Masoli owns a career completion percentage below 50%, and has thrown for as many INTs (3) as touchdowns. Defense should be a strength for the Tiger Cats, who ranked in the top 3 in scoring defense last season. The Argos are also expected to be vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball under the leadership of Rich Stubler.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-23-16 |
Mets v. Braves UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYM@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Mets are 3.5 games back of Washington in the NL East, and they visit the last place Braves on Thursday night. The Braves rank dead last in the major leagues in scoring, and the Mets are only slightly better, ranking 28th among 30 teams. Given the offensive shortcomings of both teams, tonight's total looks a little high.
Matt Harvey will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's looking to bounce back from a home loss to the Braves in his last start. Harvey (4-9, 4.76 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits, striking out five in six innings, losing 5-1. That came after allowing just two runs over 20 innings in his previous three starts. He's lost twice to the Braves at home this season, but he won in Atlanta, allowing just two runs on seven hits in five innings. Prior to this season he was 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts at Turner Field.
The Braves hand the ball to Matt Wisler, who nearly tossed a no-hitter against the Mets earlier in the year. The 23 year old gave up just one hit and a pair of walks through eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 win at Citi Field. He's owned the Mets in his short career, holding them to a combined .172 batting average over 85 at bats.
These two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-22-16 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@LAD to go UNDER the total.
The Dodgers have won back to back games in this series versus Washington, and four of their last five have gone under the total. I think we'll see another pitcher's duel at Chavez Ravine tonight.
Julio Urias will toe the slab for the Dodgers, and he's still looking for his first "W". Urias (0-2, 4.50 ERA) pitched a gem at home against the Brewers, tossing five scoreless innings while striking out eight in a no decision his last time out. He's allowed just one run while striking out 15 batters in nine innings of work at Dodgers Stadium so far.
The Nats hand the ball to Joe Ross, who is unbeaten in his last five starts. Ross (6-4, 3.13 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits, striking out six in six innings in a win at San Diego his last time out. He's 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA on the road, and the Nats are 6-2 in his last eight starts on the road.
These two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-22-16 |
Rays v. Indians UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TB@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Indians are sitting in first in the AL Central, two game up on the Royals. They host Tampa in Game 3 of this home series tonight, and we should see a pitcher's duel in "Believeland".
Chris Archer will toe the rubber for the Rays, and Tampa's ace has struggled in 2016. Archer (4-9, 4.60 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits, striking out seven in six innings in a home loss to the Giants his last time out. He's still got great stuff, and he's racked up 27 strikeouts in his last three starts.
The Indians had the ball to Trevor Bauer, who is coming off a fantastic performance. Bauer (4-2, 3.46 ERA) struck out nine batters while allowing one run on four hits over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the White Sox his last time out. He's been great under the lights, going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA in nine appearances at night.
The under is 11-4-1 in Bauer's last 16 starts overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-22-16 |
Sweden v. Belgium UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
63 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SWE@BEL to go UNDER. Belgium managed to rebound from a disappointing loss to Italy in its tournament opener with a strong 3-0 win against Republic of Ireland. It'll now take on the lowly Swedes, and I expect Belgium to record an easy win. Sweden has posed very little offensive threat so far in the tournament and has yet to register a shot on goal after 180 minutes of football. Its superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been efficiently isolated and Belgium's world class centre-backs should be able to contain the enigmatic Swede. Belgium showed its true potential in the last game and a front-three of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku should be enough to have the Swedes sweating bullets. De Bruyne has five goals and as many assists in his last 10 games for the national team while Lukaku has tallied six goals in his last six games. Sweden needs to win but giving up an early goal would be devastating. It'll try to keep the game close and hope to run away with a late goal. I think the Belgians will be the ones to take advantage once Sweden go on the attack though to take down a low-scoring contest. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-22-16 |
Rockies v. Yankees UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-9 |
Loss |
-125 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@NYY to go UNDER the total.
The Rockies won by a score of 8-4 in last night's series opener in the Bronx, but I expect the bats to be a little quieter this afternoon. Yankee Stadium is notorious for being a pitcher's park during the day, and not so much at night.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Bronx Bombers, and he's been sharp all season. Sabathia (5-4, 2.20 ERA) struck out seven while holding the Twins to just one run on six hits over six innings in a 4-1 win at Minnesota his last time out. He boasts an ERA of 2.31 in four home starts this season, and he's 1-2 with a 2.38 ERA in four starts in day games. He's own the Rockies, limiting the Colorado lineup to a .172 batting average with 19 strikeouts and just 11 hits over a combined 64 at bats.
The Rockies hand the ball to Jon Gray, who has pitched extremely well in his rookie season. Gray (4-3, 4.55 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings in a loss at Miami his last time out. He's only pitched in one day game this year, tossing seven scoreless innings in a near no-hitter versus the Giants.
The under is 9-1-1 in Sabathias last 11 home starts, and 8-3-1 in the Yankees last 12 versus Colorado.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-21-16 |
Brewers v. A's OVER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@OAK to go OVER the total.
The Brewers come into Oakland as losers of six of their last seven, while the Athletics have lost five of their last six (all at home). These are two of the worst teams in the majors, and not surprisingly they rank 25th (Oakland) and 27th (Milwauke) in fielding percentage. Neither of today's starting pitcher's inspire much confidence, and both teams have a below average bullpen.
Sonny Gray will toe the slab for Oakland, and while he's supposed to be the A's ace, his numbers don't show it. Gray (3-6, 5.54 ERA) was torched for five runs on eight hits, including a pair of home runs in a home loss to Texas his last time out. He's now surrendered a whopping 17 runs in his last three home starts.
The Brewers hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson, who has been lit up to the tune of 14 runs on 15 hits over just 7 2/3 innings in his last two appearances on the road. Nelson (5-6, 3.92 ERA) gave up eight runs on eight its and three walks in just 3 2/3 innings in a 10-1 loss at San Francisco his last time out.
The total has gone over in eight of Gray's last 10 starts.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-19-16 |
White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CWS@CLE to UNDER the total. The Indians are clinging to a half game lead at the top of the AL Central, and they go for the sweep in the series finale versus Chicago this afternoon. We should see a pitcher's duel here in Cleveland Sunday. Carlos Rodon will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's coming off a solid performance. Rodon (2-6, 4.28 ERA) struck out seven, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in a 3-1 loss to the Royals his last time out. It was the fourth time in his last five starts that he held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts versus Cleveland. The Indians hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who has looked pretty sharp lately. Carrasco (2-2, 3.40 ERA) struck out eight, surrendering a pair of runs while scattering 10 hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Royals his last time out. The under is 9-4-2 in Cleveland's last 15 overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-18-16 |
Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@MIA to go UNDER the total. The Rockies wasted a solid effort from Jon Gray in Game 1 of this series in Miami, but they send another talented young pitcher to the mound in Game 2. We could see another pitcher's duel here at Marlin's park, but I've spot some interesting data in the home/away splits for both pitchers.
Tyler Chatwood will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he's been flat out dominant away from Coors Field. Chatwood (8-4, 2.89 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over 6 2/3 innings in a home win over the Padres his last time out. He's a staggering 5-0 with a 0.65 ERA in six starts on the road this season, and 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six starts in day games.
The Marlins hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has not missed many bats lately. Chen (4-2, 4.68 ERA) has given up a whopping seven home runs in his last two starts. He's been far better on the road (3-1, 4.29 ERA) than he has been at home (1-1, 5.01 ERA).
These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings.
Take UNDER
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-17-16 |
Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SEA@BOS to go OVER the total.
When the Red Sox host the Mariners in Game 1 at Fenway Friday, we'll see the two highest scoring teams in the American League do battle in a hitter's park. History tells us we should expect fireworks, as these teams have gone over in nine straight meetings in Boston.
Former Mariner Roenis Elias will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, making just his second appearance in 2016. He was torched for three runs on four hits and a pair of walks in just 1 2/3 innings in an 8-3 loss at Houston back in April. The southpaw will have his hands full with Robinson Cano, who is batting .355 in his last 62 at bats at Fenway.
The Mariners hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma, who hasn't been quite as sharp as expected this season. Iwakuma (5-5, 4.10 ERA) allowed three solo home runs over seven innings in a 7-5 home win over Texas his last time out. He hasn't had any success against Boston, going 0-1 with a 10.20 ERA in his last four starts.
Big Papi is 4-for-8 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Iwakuma.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-15-16 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 7 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
15 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAD@ARI to go OVER the total.
The Dodgers have split their first two games of this series in Arizona, but despite a sub .500 road record, they are heavy favorite in the rubber match. Nobody likes to bet against Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ace has a history of struggling here in Arizona.
Kershaw (9-1, 1.52 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits, striking out 13 in a 3-2 win at San Francisco his last time out. He's just 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA in his last four starts at Chase Field. The D'Backs are batting .265 over a combined 136 at bats in previous meetings with Kershaw. That's better than their team batting average against the rest of the major leagues so far this season.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, who has shown flashes of brilliance in recent starts. Corbin (3-5, 4.81 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits, striking out six in 6 1/3 innings in an 8-6 home loss to Miami his last time out. He's 0-4 with a 7.53 ERA in six starts at home this season, but he's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Dodgers.
Jean Segura is swinging a hot bat of late. He was 4-for-4 last night, and he's batting .327 at home this season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-14-16 |
Marlins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@SD to go UNDER the total.
The Marlins lit up the Padres in Game 1 of this series, winning by a score of 13-4. I think we'll see a lot less scoring in Game 2 of this series, as both teams send capable pitcher's to the mound.
Drew Pomeranz will toe the slab for San Diego, and he's having a career year with the Padres. Pomeranz (5-6, 2.44 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits, striking out six in five innings in a 4-2 loss to the Braves his last time out. He's held the opposition scoreless in five of his last 10 appearances, and he's 3-2 with a 1.52 ERA in five home starts in 2016.
The Fish hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who has also been having a fine season. Koehler (4-6, 4.36 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits, fanning six in six innings in a win over the Twins his last time out. He's held the opposition to three runs or less in seven straight starts. He's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three appearances versus San Diego since 2013.
The under is 7-1 in Pomeranz's last eight starts.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-14-16 |
Reds v. Braves UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
105 |
19 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CIN@ATL to go UNDER the total.
We saw a slugfest in Atlanta last night, with the Reds coming from behind to win 9-8. I think Game 2 of this series will be more of a pitcher's duel.
Julio Teheran will toe the slab for the Braves, and he's been pitching far better than his record indicates. Teheran (2-6, 2.85 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits, striking out eight in eight innings in a 4-2 win over the Padres his last time out. The 25 year old is 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last four starts versus Cincinnati.
The Reds hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan, who has showed plenty of promise in his first full season in the majors. Finnegan (2-4, 3.77 ERA) allowed just two runs on five hits, fanning seven in seven innings in a 3-2 home loss to St. Louis his last time out. He's allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine appearances, and he faces the weakest lineup in the majors tonight.
The under is 6-2-2 in Teheran's last 10 home starts, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-14-16 |
Pirates v. Mets UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
111 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@NYM to go UNDER the total.
The Pirates come into New York as losers of five straight and 10 of their last 13. The Mets have also cooled off, losing five of their last eight. They lost two of three in a series at Pittsburgh last week, and two of those three games went under the total.
Jacob deGrom will toe the slab for the Mets, and he's coming off back to back losses. deGrom (3-2, 2.80 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits, striking out nine in six innings in a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh his last time out. Prior to that he struck out 10 in seven innings in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox.
The Pirates hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, who makes just his second major league start. The 24 year old made his major league debut against the Mets, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings in a no-decision. He's in a better spot here in this pitcher's park, facing a Mets lineup that is missing key starters Lucas Duda, David Wright and Neil Walker. They played their last game against the Brewers with just two of their opening day starters in the lineup.
The Pirates are hitting just .192 in previous meetings versus deGrom.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-12-16 |
Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
103 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAD@SF to go UNDER the total.
The Giants are three games clear of the Dodgers at the top of the NL West, and the two rivals face off at AT&T Park in the rubber match of a three game series Sunday.
Jake Peavy will toe the slab for San Francisco, and while he doesn't come in with great numbers, he's owned he Dodgers throughout his career. Peavy (2-6, 6.41 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits over five innings in a loss at St, Louis his last time out. His last home start was one of his best this season, going 6 2/3 innings, allowing one run on six hits in a 4-3 win over the Padres. The Dodgers have a team batting average of just .193 in a combined 145 at bats versus Peavy.
The Dodgers hand the ball to 19 year old rookie Julio Urias, who is still looking for his first win. His last start was his best so far, allowing one run on three hits while striking out seven in four innings of work. A high pitch count (86) preventing him from coming out for the 5th, so he didn't get the decision in a 4-3 Dodgers victory.
These two teams have failed to reach the total in 10 of the last 14 head to head meetings. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-12-16 |
Penguins v. Sharks UNDER 5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
109 |
19 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@SJS to go UNDER the total.
The Penguins have out-played the Sharks for most of this series, and they had a chance to clinch the Stanley Cup in Game 5 on home ice. The Sharks had other ideas though, jumping out to a quick 2-0 lead, and holding on to win 4-2. Now the series shifts back to California for Game 6, and the Sharks can smell blood in the water. The last thing the Penguins want is to return home for a winner takes all Game 7, but the Sharks are a dangerous team an they have now seized the momentum. Goaltender Martin Jones stood on his head for the final 40 minutes of Game 5, stopping all 31 shots he faced. The Penguins defense continued to protect Matt Murray, as the rookie faced just 21 shots, making 18 saves. With such high stakes, I expect Game 6 to be a tightly contested battle with goals hard to come by.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-12-16 |
Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYM@MIL to go UNDER the total.
The Brewers have been playing solid ball these days, coming into the series finale at home versus the Mets as winners of six of their last 10. I like the Brewers chances of salvaging a split here, with a hot young pitcher on the mound.
Zack Davies (4-3, 4.29 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on two hits over seven innings in a 5-4 win over Oakland his last time out. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, before Oakland finally broke through. He's undefeated in his last seven starts, and only once during that span has he given up more than two earned runs.
The Mets hand the ball to Steven Matz, who was on the wrong side of a pitcher's duel in Pittsburgh his last time out. The 25 year old allowed a pair of runs on eight hits, fanning eight in five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Pirates. He beat the Brewers at home earlier this season, allowing a pair of runs on three hits, with eight strikeouts seven innings.
The Brewers have gone under in eight of their last nine home meetings versus New York.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-12-16 |
Tigers v. Yankees UNDER 9 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@NYY to go UNDER the total.
The Bronx Bombers host Detroit in the series finale at Yankee Stadium Sunday, with the series tied at 1-1. Both the first two games of this series failed to reach the total, and I expect another pitcher's duel here in the finale.
Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's coming off a string of impressive starts. Fulmer (6-1, 2.83 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits in a home win over the Blue Jays his last time out. He's blanked the opposition in three straight starts, riding a 21 1/3 innings scoreless streak.
The Yankees hand the ball to Michael Pineda, who has been having a tough season. Pineda (3-6, 6.14 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings in a home win over the Angels his last time out. He's actually been pretty good lately, winning three of his last four starts. and a matinee at home looks like a good spot for him.
The Tigers have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven road games, while the under is 4-1-2 in Yankees last 7 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-10-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs OVER 206 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-108 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@CLE to go OVER the total. After both the first two games of this series failed to reach the total, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower number for Game 3 in Cleveland. The pace of play in the first two games should have resulted in a higher score, but Cleveland just kept on missing shots. The Cavs shot 52.7 percent from the field in Game 3, and they were 12-of-25 from three point range. Still the total for Game 4 remains much lower than it was in the first two games, and I think after three straight lob-sided games, we might finally see a competitive contest here in Game 4. Surely the Splash Sisters have to be better, and they have plenty to prove after going a combined 4-of-16 from beyond the arc in Game 3. The over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-09-16 |
Sharks v. Penguins UNDER 5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SJS@PIT to go UNDER the total. Here is what I had to say prior to Game 4: "So far all three games between the Sharks and the Penguins have failed to reach the total in the Stanley Cup Finals. We should expect another defensive battle in a pivotal Game 4 at the Shark Tank Monday. Both goaltenders have been rock solid, and neither team has looked great offensively. Joe Pavelski leads all scorers with 13 goals in the playoffs so far, but he hasn't registered a single point in this series. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven meetings, and the Penguins have gone under in six straight Stanley Cup Final games. The Pens are just 1-12-1 in their last 14 at the Shark Tank, and they might have a tough time bouncing back from such a tough loss in Game 3. Both these teams have been outstanding on the Penalty kill, and a lack of scoring with the man-advantage is one of the reasons why all three games have been low scoring. Game 4 should prove to be a lot like the first three games in this series." The Pens won by a score of 3-1, and with the Cup up for grabs here in Game 5, another tight, low scoring game is expected. The Blackhawks clinched the Cup with a 2-0 win in Game 6 of last year's Finals, The Kings clinched with a 3-2 win in Game 5 versus the Rangers the previous season. It's really quite rare to see a lot of offense in these type of elimination games in the Finals. While there is a high possibility of a push, I think the under is by far more likely than an over.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-08-16 |
Braves v. Padres UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@SD to go UNDER the total.
The Braves and the Padres will wrap things up at PETCO Wednesday afternoon, and I think this could turn into a pitcher's duel.
Julio Teheran will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's pitcher a lot better than his record would indicate. Teheran (1-6, 2.92 ERA) allowed three runs on three hits, fanning seven over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Dodgers his last time out. Atlanta's ace has racked up 22 strikeouts in his last three starts.
The Padres hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz, who is coming off a fantastic performance in a 4-0 win over Colorado. Pomeranz (5-5, 2.22 ERA) went seven scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits and striking out eight. He's been nothing short of dominant at PETCO, going 3-1 with a 0.73 ERA in four starts this season.
Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in runs scored, and owns a major league worst .227 team batting average.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-07-16 |
Indians v. Mariners OVER 8 |
Top |
1-7 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@SEA to go OVER the total.
A four game losing streak has put the Mariners four games back of first place Texas in the AL West, and they will have their hands full in a home series with Cleveland, already down 1-0 after losing Game 1 by a score of 3-1. I think we'll see a lot more scoring here in Game 2.
Wade Miley will toe the slab for Seattle, and he hasn't missed many bats lately. Miley (5-2, 5.85 ERA) was torched for nine runs on 12 hits in just 4 2/3 innings at San Diego his last time out. He was bailed out by Seattle's surging offense, as the Mariners came back to win 16-13. He gave up five runs on six hits in just four innings in a home loss to Minnesota prior to that.
The Indians counter with Cody Anderson, who has had plenty of his own struggles. Anderson (1-3, 6.81 ERA) struck out nine, allowing one run on five hits over seven innings in a win over the White Sox his last time out. Prior to that he was lit up by the Reds, surrendering six runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings. The Mariners roughed him up in Cleveland earlier this year. He gave up five runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings in that game.
The over is 7-1 in the Mariners last eight at Safeco.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-07-16 |
Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
105 |
15 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #MLB play on STL@CIN to go OVER the total.
The Reds may be in last place in the NL Central, but they come into Game 1 of a home series versus St. Louis as winners of five of their last seven. They've been hot at the plate, scoring a whopping 66 runs over their last 10 games. We saw a slugfest in the last game in Cincinnati, when the Nats won 10-9 in the series final Sunday.
Mike Leake will toe the slab for St. Louis, and the former Red doesn't have fond memories of pitching at Great American Ballpark. Leake (4-4, 3.82 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a 10-3 win at Milwaukee his last time out. During his tenure as a Red, he always had better numbers on the road. This trend has continued in St. Louis, but pitching in his former home park might not be an ideal spot for the right-hander.
The Reds hand the ball to John Lamb, who is coming off a stellar performance in a win over the Rockies. Lamb (1-3, 5.58 ERA) allowed one run on six hits over seven innings in Colorado. Prior to that he was shelled by the Brewers, allowing six runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in a 9-5 loss at Milwaukee.
The Cardinals lead the National League in runs scored, and they should have little trouble roughing up an inexperienced Cincinnati starter in this hitter's park.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-06-16 |
Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@SD to go OVER the total.
The Padres are coming off a 10-3 loss in the series finale at home versus Colorado on Sunday, while the Braves lost 12-6 to the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. I think we could see a slugfest when the two teams open a new series at PETCO Monday.
Williams Perez will toe the slab for the Braves, and he hasn't pitched well on the road this season. Perez (2-1, 3.86 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits and a pair of walks over 5 2/3 innings in a 5-4 win over the Giants his last time out. He's just 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA in three starts on the road.
The Padres hand the ball to Christian Friedrich, who didn't fool many batters in his last start. The southpaw gave up four runs on nine hits and four walks in just five innings in a 14-6 home win over the Mariners.
The Padres have gone over in eight of their last 10, and six of their last eight versus Atlanta. Neither team has the luxury of a reliable bullpen, so tacking on runs in the late innings is nothing out of the ordinary.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-06-16 |
Penguins v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@SJS to go UNDER the total.
So far all three games between the Sharks and the Penguins have failed to reach the total in the Stanley Cup Finals. We should expect another defensive battle in a pivotal Game 4 at the Shark Tank Monday. Both goaltenders have been rock solid, and neither team has looked great offensively. Joe Pavelski leads all scorers with 13 goals in the playoffs so far, but he hasn't registered a single point in this series. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven meetings, and the Penguins have gone under in six straight Stanley Cup Final games. The Pens are just 1-12-1 in their last 14 at the Shark Tank, and they might have a tough time bouncing back from such a tough loss in Game 3. Both these teams have been outstanding on the Penalty kill, and a lack of scoring with the man-advantage is one of the reasons why all three games have been low scoring. Game 4 should prove to be a lot like the first three games in this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-05-16 |
Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@SD to go OVER the total. The Rockies lost 4-3 at PETCO last night, and despite 21 hits between the two teams, they came up just short of the total. I think we'll likely see a few more runs on Sunday, especially with the Padres turning to an inexperienced arm out of the bullpen. Luis Perdomo will toe the slab for San Diego, and he was torched for six runs on six hits in just two innings in a relief appearance at Safeco his last time out. His 10.04 ERA over 26 innings so far this season inspires little confidence. The Rockies counter with Jon Gray, who lost at PETCO earlier this season. Gray (3-2, 5.76 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over six innings in a 17-4 home win over the Reds his last time out. He's just 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in four starts on the road. Both teams have poor bullpens, with the Rockies ranking 25th, and the Padres ranking 28th in ERA by reliever. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-05-16 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 206.5 |
Top |
77-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
54 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total.
After cashing in on a heavy under trend this post-season, I decided to switch things up with a play on the over in Game 1. It didn't work out, with the Splash Brothers shooting just 8-of-27 combined, totaling only 20 points. The Cavs were brutal, shooting just 38.1 percent in a 104-89 loss. Cleveland missed a lot of easy put-backs and layups that you would have expected them to hit. Heading into Game 2, we see that the bookmakers have adjusted with a total that is 3-4 points lower than it was in Game 1. We know Curry and Thompson are going to be better than they were in Game 1, and I expect Cleveland to play a bit better as well. The Warriors have failed to reach the total in four of their last five overall, but three of those games saw enough points to go over tonight's total.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-04-16 |
Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@SD to go OVER the total.
We saw the Padres win Game 1 of this series versus Colorado by a score of 4-0. We should see a lot more scoring here in Game 2, with a couple of struggling pitchers on the mound.
Andrew Cashner will toe the slab for San Diego, and he hasn't missed many bats of late. Cashner (2-5, 4.79 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 9-3 loss to Seattle his last time out. He gave up three runs on five hits and three walks over six innings in a 6-3 home win over the Rockies earlier this season.
The Rockies hand the ball to Chad Bettis, who's last two starts have been just brutal. Bettis (4-4, 5.46 ERA) was torched for six runs on eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to Cincinnati his last time out. Prior to that he went 4 2/3 innings, surrendering seven runs on seven hits and four walks in a 10-3 loss at Fenway.
The Padres have not been fooled by Bettis, hitting a combined .327 over 52 at bats.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-04-16 |
Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SF@STL to go OVER the total.
We saw a low scoring game in St. Louis last night, with both teams sending their ace to the mound in the series opener. The Giants and won by a score of 5-1, with Johnny Cueto out-dueling Adam Wainwright. Prior to last night's game, the Cardinals had gone over in six of their previous seven home games.
Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for San Francisco, and he was roughed up by the Braves his last time out. Samardzija (7-3, 2.84 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits and two walks over five innings losing 5-3 in Atlanta. Yadier Molina has seen plenty of Samadzija, and he hasn't been fooled, going 10-for-20 lifetime versus the 31 year old.
The Cardinals hand the ball to Michael Wacha, who has been a major disappointment in 2016. Wacha (2-6, 4.99 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over six innings in a 10-2 loss to the Nationals his last time out. He's given up a whopping 14 runs on 16 hits in consecutive losses in his last two home starts.
The over is 16-5 in Wacha's last 21 starts.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-02-16 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 210 |
Top |
89-104 |
Loss |
-103 |
57 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total.
The playoffs have been very profitable for The Iceman so far, and much of the success has come with totals. Those who have followed would know that The Iceman plays a lot more unders than he does overs, but he's changing things up here in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. While he Warriors failed to reach the total in five of their seven games in the Western Conference Final, only two of those games saw fewer points than the total here for Game 1. When these two teams met in the Finals last year, we saw tight, low scoring games. The series opener went just over, only because of overtime. Things have changed here in 2016, with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, these Cavs can score with the best of them. The Warriors certainly are the best of them, averaging 111 points per game in the playoffs. The Cavs come in averaging 107 points per game. The Warriors didn't play particularly well against the Thunder, but with Klay Thompson making 11 three-pointers in Game 6, and the Splash Bros hitting a combined 13-of-23 from downtown in Game 7, they survived. I think if they play that way against the Cavs they could be in for a tough series.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-31-16 |
Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
4-17 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CIN@COL to go OVER the total.
We've seen three straight slugfests at Coors Field, and with a pair of struggling starters and two below average bullpens in tonight's game, the over looks like an easy call.
Jon Moscot will toe the slab for Cincinnati, and he's coming off a shoulder injury. Moscot (0-2, 4.02 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and four walks over just five innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. His nine walks in three starts are three more than his six strikeouts, and a rate like that could spell disaster in a hitter's park in Colorado.
The Rockies hand the ball to Jon Gray, who has won two of his last three starts. Gray (2-2, 5.95 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on five hits and three walks over 7 1/3 innings in a win over Boston his last time out. He struck out eight, allowing a pair of runs on five hits in seven innings in a win over the Mets in his last home start.
The Reds bullpen is a complete disaster, ranking dead last in the majors with an ERA of 6.49.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-31-16 |
Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 |
Top |
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@MIL to go OVER the total. The Brewers lost Game 1 of this home series versus St. Louis by a score of 6-0, but I expect a higher scorer here in Game 2.
Mike Leake will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he's given the Cardinals four consecutive quality starts. Leake (3-4, 3.90 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits, striking out five in seven innings in a 2-1 loss to Washington his last time out. He had won four straight prior to that, and he should look forward to more run support tonight in Milwaukee. He may need it, as the Brewers have hit him pretty hard in the past.
Milwaukee hands the ball to Wily Peralta, who has not missed many bats this season. Peralta (3-5, 6.62 ERA) gave up two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Braves in his last start. He's been brutal at Miller Park, posting an ERA of 8.76 in five starts. Facing the Cardinals won't help, he's 4-8 with a 4.74 ERA in his last 13 starts against St. Louis.
Matt Carpenter is hitting .457 with three home runs lifetime versus Peralta, and Matt Holliday is batting .357 with a pair of home runs against him.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-30-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-96 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors have won back to back games to force a Game 7 at Oracle Arena, but neither of those wins were particularly convincing. They trailed 53-48 at halftime in Game 6, and they have trailed at the half in three of the last four games in this series. The only thing that saved them from elimination in Game 6 was the red hot shooting from Klay Thompson, who hit 11 three-pointers. If the Warriors are counting on Thompson (not Curry) to carry the load here in Game 7, they could be in trouble.
The Thunder have really turned up the defensive intensity in the playoffs, not just in this series, but also in their semi finals series versus San Antonio. Steven Adams continues to own the boards, and he had three blocks in Game 6. These teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last six meetings at Golden State, and the Warriors have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 Conference Finals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-30-16 |
Sharks v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
59 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SJS@PIT to go UNDER the total. The Sharks come into Pittsburgh well rested after dispatching of the Blues in six games. The Penguins have only had one day off after escaping with a 2-1 win in Game 7 versus Tampa Bay. The opening game of the Stanley Cup Final goes tonight, and I expect a cautious approach from both teams here. Both these teams have been riding hot goaltenders, as Martin Jones sports a record of 12-6 with a 2.13 GAA in the post season, and he had a pair of shutouts in the Western Conference Finals. Matt Murray has played well for the Pens, and was only asked to face 17 shots in Game 7 versus Tampa. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, as five of the last six meetings have gone under, and the under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-28-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221 |
Top |
108-101 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination once again, but this time on the road. Steph Curry said after Game 4: " this is not how we're going to go out." Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up".
Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the first four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. The Warriors haven't taken a lead to the locker room at halftime in any of their road games in these playoffs. Despite scoring 31 points in Game 5, Curry was just 3-for-8 from beyond the arc.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-27-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 |
Top |
113-87 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@TOR to go OVER the total. After three of the last four games in this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 6 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the three games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 6. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to close out the series, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 road games, and 12-6 in their last 18 Conference Finals games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-26-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 221 |
Top |
111-120 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination at home in Game 5 tonight. Steph Curry says: " this is not how we're going to go out." The Warriors are asked to cover a bunch of points here, and I just can't bring myself to bet on a team that has already displayed an inability to stop Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up".
Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings at Oracle Arena, and the Thunder have gone under in four straight road games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-26-16 |
Lightning v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@TB to go UNDER the total.
The Penguins host Tampa in a deciding Game 7 in Steel Town Thursday, and history tells us we should expect tight defense in this elimination game. Pittsburgh took a 3-0 lead into the third period in Game 6, but four more goals in the third pushed the total over. Since the 2006 season, studies show that referees call roughly 50% fewer penalties in Game 7s, in comparison to the regular season. This means fewer power-plays, and often fewer scoring chances when the refs let the defenders get away with more physical play. "The numbers do seem to support this theory. Since 2006, the Under has gone 20-14-7 in Game 7’s for an 11% ROI (going under the total by an average of 0.3 goals per game)." These stats are based on totals of 5 goals or lower, which would mean that all seven of those pushes would have fallen below 5.5. It's also likely that the 14 games that went over would also include a few games that finished with five goals, with a total of 4.5.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-25-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198.5 |
Top |
78-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total. After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the first two games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 5. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a pair of losses, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 12-5 in their last 17 Conference Finals games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-23-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 |
Top |
99-105 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total. After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers have adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this is an over-correction, and this of all games looks like one that should see more scoring. None of the first three games were close, but I expect the Cavs to respond after an embarrassing loss in Game 3. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a double-digit loss (the Zig Zag Theory), but I think the better bet is on the Cavs to simply be more competitive, thus pushing the total over. The trends show that the over is 9-3-1 in Cavaliers last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-22-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
105-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
68 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total 1st half.
Do you remember when the Thunder upset the Warriors in Game 1? Perhaps the Warriors convincing 118-91 win in Game 2 has made us forget about how well the Thunder have played. Oklahoma City returns home with the series tied 1-1, and they are an underdog in Game 3. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They trailed at the half in both of their games in Portland, and they failed to get to the locker room with a lead at the half in both road games in their first round series versus Houston .
Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in three straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm.
When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. That's well short of the number for the first half of Game 3. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five meetings, and the Warriors have gone under in six of their last seven Conference Finals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-18-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 222 |
Top |
91-118 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors got off to a great start in Game 1, but they struggled in the second half allowing Oklahoma City to come from behind to record the upset. Stephen Curry still isn't 100%, and he was just 1-of-1 from the field in the fourth quarter. The Warriors have a habit of slow starts to games, and I really think these teams will struggle to reach this enormous number in the first half of Game 2.
Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 2 of the Western Conference Final.
While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another close game at Oracle Arena.
Take UNDER .
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-17-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
84-115 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs have been unstoppable so far in these playoffs, but they come into Game 1 versus the Raptors off a long layoff. It's been nine days since they closed out the Hawks in a four game sweep in the Eastern Conference Semi Final. Game 4 of that series failed to reach 200 total points, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games in these playoffs. The Raptors are also trending toward the under, with six of their seven games against the Heat failing to reach a total of 200 points. Toronto finished the regular season with the NBA's 3rd best defense, allowing opponents to average just over 98 points per game. The emergence of center Bizmack Biyombo may make them even tougher, and they held the Heat to an average of 93.7 points in their last series. Biyombo isn't as much of a scorer as the injured Jonas Valancunias, but he's a dominant defender and an excellent rebounder. The Raptors have gone under in eight of their last nine on the road, and Cleveland has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven when playing on three or more days of rest. The Cavs could be a little sluggish to start tonight's game, given the nine day layoff.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-16-16 |
Rangers v. A's OVER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-118 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEX@OAK to go OVER the total.
The Rangers are coming off a wild come from behind win over the Jays in the series finale in Texas yesterday. Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre each hit home runs, and the Rangers won 7-6. We might see another slugfest in Oakland tonight, with a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound.
Derek Holland will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's coming off a couple of disastrous starts. Holland (3-2, 6.09 ERA) was torched for five runs on eight hits over just 2 1/3 innings against the White Sox his last time out. Prior to that he was hammered for 11 runs on 11 hits in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss at Toronto. He hasn't had much success against the A's, going 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA in his last five starts against them.
The A's hand the ball to 24 year old rookie Sean Manaea, who is coming off a brutal performance. The leftie was torched for eight runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to Boston his last time out. He's 0-1 with an 11.37 ERA in three appearances, and his time in the rotation may be coming to an end if he can't turn things around.
Texas has gone over in seven of it's last eight games overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-16-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
108-102 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Oklahoma City Thunder shocked everyone with a stunning upset win in their second round series versus San Antonio. As impressive as they have looked, I still think they're going to be in way over their heads in the Western Conference Final. The Warriors had some ups and downs in their series versus Portland, but in the end they were able to overcome slow starts, closing out the Blazers in five games.
Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final.
While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden State struggle to shake off the rust coming off a layoff. The Warriors came out flat a few times in their series versus Portland, and it could take a while to get going in Game 1.
Take UNDER .
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-13-16 |
Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8 |
Top |
7-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAA@SEA to go UNDER the total.
The Angels come into Seattle on Friday as losers of six straight, and they face a hot Mariners pitcher in Game 1.
Nathan Karns will toe the slab for Seattle, and he's coming off his best start of the season. Karns (3-1, 3.38 ERA) allowed one run on six hits, striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings in a win at Houston his last time out. He's facing an Angels lineup that ranks 25th in the majors in runs scored, and has been held to two runs or less in five of it's last six games.
The Halos hand the ball to Nick Tropeano, who has pitched far better than his record would indicate. Tropeano (1-2, 3.69 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits, striking out 10 batters in a 3-1 loss to Tampa his last time out. He's 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts against the Mariners. He didn't factor in the decision in a 5-2 home loss to the Mariners earlier this season, and he's a combined seven runs or less in five of his six starts in 2016.
Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and the Mariners have gone under in eight of their last 11 home games versus a right-handed starter.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-13-16 |
Raptors v. Heat UNDER 190 |
Top |
91-103 |
Loss |
-100 |
31 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total.
It's rare to see The Iceman change strategy in the middle of a playoff series, and even after just missing the under in Game 5, he's firing right back with "under" in Game 6. The officials are clearly giving the Heat the benefit of the doubt on every close call, and Toronto is really going to struggle to score with a banged up DeMar Derozan and and DeMarre Carroll. Bizmack Biyombo has been great, but he doesn't pose as much of a threat as the injured Jonas Valancunias.
Patrick Patterson started at PF in Game 5, and he scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. He's having a terrible series, shooting just .335 and averaging just six points per game. The Heat could be without Loul Deng in Game 6, and Hassan Whiteside remains sidelined with a knee injury. Toronto has failed to reach the total in eight straight road games, and 10 of it's last 13 overall. The under is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 overall.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-11-16 |
Heat v. Raptors UNDER 188.5 |
Top |
91-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total. The Raptors blew a late lead in Game 4 in Miami, and they return home deadlocked at 2-2 in their series versus the Heat. Coming off such a tough loss, I expect Toronto to come out strong with a big first half in Game 5. Both teams have lost their starting center, but Toronto is in far better shape with Bizmack Biyombo scoring 13 points and pulling in 13 rebounds in 31 minutes in Game 4. The Raptors are also getting big minutes off the bench from Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross, who combined to score 28 points in the loss at Miami. With DeMar DeRozan battling a thumb injury, the pressure is on Kyle Lowry to carry the load. He scored 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in Game 3, but he fouled out with just 10 points in Game 4. Expect a bounce back performance from the Raptors PG at home tonight. Four of five games in this series have gone to overtime, and still the total has gone under in each of the last three games. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last nine overall, and Toronto has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 12. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-09-16 |
Raptors v. Heat UNDER 190 |
Top |
87-94 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are back in the driver's seat after winning Game 3 in Miami, and they have to be encouraged by the play of Kyle Lowry. Their star PG has broken out of a slump, scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the last game. He's going to need to carry the load with DeMar DeRozan banged up, and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with an ankle injury. Toronto's center had been dominant in this series, scoring 55 points and pulling in 38 rebounds in 2.5 games. His replacement Bizmack Biyombo is also an excellent defender, but is nowhere near as dangerous offensively. Still this leaves the Raptors in better shape than Miami, who will really miss Hassan Whiteside. We've seen a trend of close, low scoring games so far in this series, with all three decided by six points or less. Two of the three games went under, with the only exception being Game 1, when Kyle Lowry hit a miracle shot from half court to force overtime. The Raptors have failed to reach the total in seven straight on the road, and the Heat have gone under in seven of their last eight overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-06-16 |
Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 200 |
Top |
121-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@ATL to go UNDER the total.
After a low scoring battle in Game 1, the Cavs came out and set an NBA record with 25 made three-pointers in Game 2. You might as well just completely disregard what happened in the last game in Cleveland, and I think it's far more likely that Game 3 will be a lot more like Game 1.
Three of Cleveland's last four games at Atlanta have failed to reach the total, and the only exception was a 110-108 overtime win for Cleveland. The first half of that game only saw a combined 96 points, and I don't expect any more scoring here in Game 3 in Atlanta.
The Hawks were the best defensive team in the NBA after the All Star break, and they've gone under in seven of their last eight when coming off a loss. The under is 5-1 in Atlanta's last six home games, and 8-2 in the Hawks last 10 overall.
Both of Cleveland's road games in these playoffs have gone under, and LeBron struggled in Detroit, scoring a total of 42 points on 17-of-43 shooting. He was just 2-of-12 from beyond the arc in those games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-16 |
Rockies v. Padres OVER 7 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on COL@SD to go OVER the total.
The Padres have failed to go over the total in each of their last four games, including a 2-1 win over the Rockies in the opening game of this home series last night. The last time we saw San Diego involved in a slugfest, Andrew Cashner was getting roughed up in a 13-9 loss at San Francisco.
Casher will take the mound again tonight, and we could see a high scoring game at pitcher friendly PETCO. Cashner (1-2, 4.94 ERA) only made it through 2 2/3 innings, surrendering six runs on four hits and four walks in the loss to the Giants. He's 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in his last six starts versus Colorado. He hasn't fooled the Rockies, who are hitting .333 over a combined 84 at bats against him.
Colorado will hand the ball to Eddie Butler, who makes just his second appearance of the season. The right-hander allowed a run on two hits over 2 1/3 innings of relief in a loss to the Pirates last week. He allowed five runs on four hits in just four innings in his only previous meeting with the Rockies.
Given the current form of the scheduled starters, this total looks far too low.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-16 |
Heat v. Raptors UNDER 191 |
Top |
102-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors finally got the monkey off their backs, ending a 15 year run of playoff disappointment by escaping their first round series versus the Pacers. They overcame adversity, with stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan struggling with their shot through the entire series. It was strong defense and key contributions off the bench that powered the Raptors past Indiana. Only one of the seven games in that series went over the total, and we are likely to see more defensive battles in this series versus the Heat.
Miami is coming off a blowout win in Game 7 over Charlotte, and they held the Hornets to just 74 points on 32.1 percent shooting in the series finale. The final four games of that series went under the total, and the Heat have failed to reach the total in five straight on the road. We've seen roughly 65% of the games in these playoffs go under, and the bookmakers have not been able to adjust quick enough. In fact, in games with a total of 195 or less, the under is 12-2-1. The total for tonight's Game 1 is still higher than it has been in two of the last three meetings between these two teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-16 |
Giants v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SF@CIN to go OVER the total.
It was a slugfest in Cincinnati in Game 1 of this series, with San Francisco winning by a score of 9-6. We will see a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound in Game 2, and another high score seems likely.
Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for San Fran, and his last start came at home versus San Diego. The Padres roughed him up a little, scoring five runs on five hits and a pair of walks in 5 2/3 innings. He's 0-4 with a 4.10 ERA in his last eight starts versus Cincinnati. Reds leadoff man Billy Hamilton is 5-for-10 with a home run lifetime versus Samardzija.
The Reds hand the ball to Jon Moscot, who is still looking for his first win of the season. Moscot (0-2, 4.02 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. He's been bothered by a sore shoulder, but it isn't expected to prevent him from making his next start.
The Giants are trending over in a big way, with 10 of their last 11 exceeding the total. They've gone over in 18 of their last 28 versus the Reds.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-02-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
98-97 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
I took the under in Game 1, and here is what I said pregame: "The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game."
While the Spurs defense was as good as I expected it to be, the Thunder just couldn't stop San Antonio from scoring. Oklahoma City will need to tighten things up here in Game 2, and I expect a much slower pace after the Thunder make adjustments.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-02-16 |
Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
93-104 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs have won seven straight against Atlanta, and they've held the Hawks to fewer than 100 points in regulation in all seven of those games. Both teams were impressive on defense in their respective first round matchups. The Hawks allowed Boston to average just 93.8 points per game, while the Cavs held Detroit to an average of 95 points per game. Atlanta has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 10 overall, while the Cavs have gone under in five of their last six when coming off at least three days rest. The under is 23-11 in Cavaliers last 34 Conference Semifinals games. These teams played a low scoring contest in Game 1 of the East Finals last year, with Cleveland winning by a score of 97-89. I expect a similar looking score in Game 1 of this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-01-16 |
Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
84-89 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@TOR to go UNDER the total. This series has seen more than it's fair share of low scoring games, with five of the six games going under the total. We saw just 184 points scored in Game 6, and I really don't think we can expect more than that tonight in Game 7. Toronto did a decent job defending Paul George, holding him to 21 points on 5-of-14 shooting in Game 6. Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and five of six games going under in this series, we still saw a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan is averaging just 15.8 points per game on 32.8 percent shooting in this series, while Kyle Lowry has shot just 27 percent from the field in three home games against the Pacers. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-30-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
92-124 |
Loss |
-107 |
67 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game.
Take UNDER GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-29-16 |
Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 195 |
Top |
83-101 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors head back to Indiana with a chance to close out the Pacers in Game 6. So far home court hasn't been much of an advantage in this series, with both teams winning once on the road. The Pacers came very close in Game 5, but blew a 13 point lead in the fourth quarter. I think that such a demoralizing loss sets up Indiana for an emotional let down here tonight. The Raptors haven't had any trouble winning at Indiana, and they've covered the spread in nine of their last 11 at Bankers Field House.
Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and four of five games going under in this series, we still see a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan scored 34 points on 10-of-22 shooting in the last game, after struggling earlier in the series. This is a good sign moving forward for the Raptors, but still they've failed to reach the total in five straight road games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-27-16 |
Blazers v. Clippers OVER 196.5 |
Top |
108-98 |
Win
|
102 |
13 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@LAC to go OVER the total.
The last time I watched the Clippers play without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, they won at Utah by a score of 102-99. That was a road win against one of the best defensive teams in the league, in a game that Utah needed to win in order to make the playoffs. Jamal Crawford led the way with 30 points on 9-of-20 shooting. It appeared that the Clippers strategy without their stars was to play a fast paced, high energy game, shooting a ton of threes. They were quite successful going 13-of-29 (44%) from beyond the arc.
Paul Pierce scored 18 points in 33 minutes in that game, and he was 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. The veteran has seen limited action so far this post-season, but expect to see more of "The Truth" tonight. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and seven of the last eight overall. The number in all of those games was well over 200, and tonight's total is roughly 10 points lower than it would be in normal circumstances. That may prove to be a case of the bookmakers over-compensating.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-27-16 |
Yankees v. Rangers OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYY@TEX to go OVER the total.
The Rangers rocked the Yankees last night, winning 10-1 in Game 2. The series is tied at 1-1, and we will see a pair of struggling pitchers here in the rubber match.
C.C. Sabathia will toe the slab for the Yankees, and he's coming off another poor performance. Sabathia (1-1, 5.28 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits and three walks in just 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Rays. His numbers against Texas are downright ugly, going 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in two starts since 2013.
The Rangers hand the ball to Martin Perez, who is also coming off a tough outing. Perez (0-2, 4.50 ERA) allowed five runs on five hits and a pair of walks over five innings in a loss to Chicago his last time out. He's only faced the Yankees once over the last three seasons, and he managed to give up eight runs in just one inning.
The over is 8-2 in the Rangers last 10 in Arlington, and Sabathia has gone over in eight straight starts.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-26-16 |
Padres v. Giants OVER 7 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SD@SF to go OVER the total.
The Giants beat the Padres by a score of 5-4 in the series opener, and I think we could see a similar scoreline in Game 2. San Francisco comes in as winners of three of their last four, and the Giants have gone over in five straight.
Johnny Cueto will toe the slab for San Francisco, and he's off to a stellar start to the season. Cueto (3-1, 3.49 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over seven innings in a home loss to Arizona his last time out. The Padres have really had their way with Cueto, batting a combined .351 over 94 at bats. Matt Kemp and Jon Jay have both hit better than .400 against him, with a combined five home runs between them.
The Padres will hand the ball to "Big Game James", although he's hardly lived up to the moniker. Shields (0-3, 4.15 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits and two walks over six innings in an 11-1 loss to the Pirates his last time out. He's struggled with his command, dishing out a total of eight free passes in his last three starts.
The veteran has only had one start in San Francisco over the last three seasons, and that was a disaster. He was torched for seven runs on nine hits in just four innings in that game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-26-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 199 |
Top |
83-110 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks took a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 was still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, and while the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game.
The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the four games so far, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number.
Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-24-16 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 217 |
Top |
121-94 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors looked unstoppable of Game 1 of this series, beating Houston 104-78. They followed that up with another double-digit win at home in Game 2, despite the absence of MVP Steph Curry. It was a different story back in Houston for for Game 3, and the Rockets pulled off the upset winning 97-96. With Curry set to return for Game 4, the bookmakers have Golden State heavily favored this afternoon.
I think it's important to remember that Curry played every game when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, and that series was a lot closer than most expected. Those games were for the most part quite close, and the scores were much lower than anticipated as well. The Warriors were held to 43 percent shooting in Game 3 without Curry, but they shot an even lower 42.9 percent in Game 1, and Curry scored 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting in that game. Coming off an injury, he may not be at 100 percent, and it could be a tough ask for him do any better than that here in Houston in Game 4.
The Warriors have failed to reach the total in six straight road games, and they've gone under in 11 of their last 16 in Houston. They've also gone under in six of their last eight when coming off a loss. This is a huge game for both teams, and we should expect a solid defensive effort all the way around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-23-16 |
Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
83-100 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
After two low scoring games in Toronto, we saw these teams combine to score just 186 points in Game 3 in Indiana. The bookmakers adjusted with a lower opening total for Game 4, but public money has caused some late line movement, pushing the number right back up to where it was in Games 1 & 2. The trend throughout the playoffs so far has been low scoring games, and I see no reason for either of these two teams to open things up here tonight. With the Raptors up 2-1 and the series heading to Toronto for Game 5, a loss here would likely be the end for the Pacers. We should expect this to be another gritty defensive battle. The way DeMarre Carroll has played defense against Paul George, the Pacers might struggle on offense. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan continue to struggle with their shooting, and I just don't see anybody picking up any easy buckets here in a pivotal Game 4.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-16 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 181.5 |
Top |
96-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Spurs are in complete control of this series heading into Game 3 in Memphis, and I am not convinced that will change simply because Memphis is at home. That being said, they scored an average of just 71 points in the two games in San Antonio, and I expect them to show at the very least a modest improvement on offense. The under has been really trending in these playoffs, as 14 of 19 games so far have failed to reach the number. This has prompted the bookmakers to adjust, and we see a total in Game 3 that is 10 points lower than it was in Game 1.
The over has been a good bet after the Grizzlies have suffered a double-digit loss, trending at a rate of 7-1-2. They've also played higher scoring games in Memphis, going over at a rate of 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games. The Spurs are still scoring their fair share of points, averaging 100 per game in the post-season. They are smoking hot from beyond the arc, hitting 19-of-39 three-pointers in Games 1-2.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-16 |
Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
103-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
42 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@BOS to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks take a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 is still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, with 14 of the first 19 games failing to hit the total. While the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game.
The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the last four meetings in Boston, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number.
Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-16 |
Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
101-91 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@DET to go UNDER the total. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession." The Pistons three-point shooting cooled off significantly in Game 2, hitting just 4-of-17 from beyond the arc. They were held to just 37 points in the second half, and I expect another defensive battle in the Motor City tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-20-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 201 |
Top |
90-107 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-20-16 |
Mariners v. Indians UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SEA@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Mariners lost a low scoring game in Cleveland on Tuesday, and they've failed to reach the total in all four games on this road trip so far. We should expect another pitcher's duel in Game 2, with a pair of quality starters facing two of the American League's worst offenses.
Danny Salazar will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he's still undefeated in 2016. Salazar (2-0, 0.79 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings, striking out nine in a 6-0 win over Tampa his last time out. He's 13-6 with a 3.31 ERA in Cleveland over the last three seasons, and he was 7-2 in Cleveland last year.
The Mariners hand the ball to Taijaun Walker, who is coming off a solid performance. Walker (0-0, 2.25 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over six innings in a no decision versus Texas his last time out. The 23 year old was 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Indians last year, and he pitched a gem in Cleveland.
The Indians have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall, and Seattle is trending in the same direction.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-19-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205.5 |
Top |
72-89 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks did everything I expected them to do in Game 1, until they nearly collapsed in the fourth quarter allowing Boston to get back into the game. Boston only managed to score 34 points in the first half, and the Celtics might struggle again in Game 2 without Avery Bradley, who is second in the team in scoring behind Isaiah Thomas. Bradley scored 18 points before getting injured in Game 1.
So far in these playoffs seven of 11 games have failed to reach the total, including Atlanta's win in Game 1 of this series. These are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs, and I expect to see an even lower score than what we saw in Game 1
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-19-16 |
Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TB@DET to go UNDER the total. The Red Wings got back into this series with a home win in Game 3, and Peter Mazrek stopped all 19 shots he faced earning the shutout. The 24 year old Czech has a history of playing well against Tampa, and he gave the lightning fits in the first round of last year's playoffs. Tampa is getting great goaltending as well, with Bishop a solid 2-1 with a 2.00 GAA in the series so far. Game 4 is huge, and with so much at stake I expect scoring chances to be hard to come by, just as they were in Game 3. The Lightning own the NHL's 28th ranked power-play, and they could struggle if they can't find a way to score on the man-advantage. The Red Wings only averaged 2.5 goals per game during the regular season, ranking 23rd in the league. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-19-16 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7 |
Top |
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYM@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Mets and the Phillies both rank near the bottom of the major leagues in runs scored, and each team will send a hot pitcher to the mound in Game 2 of this series in Philadelphia today.
Vincent Velasquez will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's coming off a complete game shutout in his last start. The 23 year old struck out 16 in a 3-0 win over the Padres, and he has 25 total over 15 scoreless innings this season.
The Mets hand the ball to Logan Verrett, who is also coming off a stellar performance. The 25 year old allowed just three hits over six scoreless innings in a win over Miami his last time out.
This will be the fifth meeting between the two teams this season, and they've scored seven runs on less in three of the previous four. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-17-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
101-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a big favorite in their first round series versus Detroit, and they will be asked to cover a double-digit spread in Game 1. The Pistons aren't going to lay down though, and I expect this to be a battle, with both teams playing tough defense from the opening tip off.
The Pistons beat the Cavs in overtime in a meaningless game in the season finale, with both teams resting their starters. Prior to that, the Pistons won in Cleveland by a score of 96-88 in February. The Cavs were the 4th best defensive team in the league this season, and they've been particularly strong defensively when coming off a few days of rest. The under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
It wasn't that surprising that all four playoff games on Saturday failed to reach the total, as history tells us that scoring does down in the post-season. The defenses tighten up, and you just don't see that many easy buckets. I don't think the bookmakers have properly adjusted here with a number higher than 200 for Game 1.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-14-16 |
Padres v. Phillies UNDER 7 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SD@PHI to go UNDER the total. The Padres and the Phillies will wrap up this series at Citizen's Bank Park today, in a battle of two of baseballs least talented teams. Outside of a few high scoring games at Coors Field, the Padres offense has done next to nothing. San Diego will hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz, who looked good in his season debut in Colorado. He allowed just a pair of runs on four hits while striking out seven in five innings. The Phillies will counter with left-hander Vincent Velasquez, who tossed six scoreless innings striking out nine against the Mets in his debut. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-13-16 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@LAD to go OVER the total.
The Dodgers lost Game 1 of this home series versus Arizona by a score of 4-2, but I expect to see more of a slugfest here in Game 2.
Alex Wood will toe the slab for the Dodgers, and he looked pretty shaky in his season debut. Wood was lit up, surrendering five runs on eight hits and two walks in five innings in a loss at San Francisco. The 25 year old was 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts versus the D'Backs last year.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa, who was also roughed up pretty good in his first start this season. The 27 year old right-hander gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks over just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. He's been hit hard in previous meetings with the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 11.21 ERA in three starts since 2013.
Howie Kendrick is 10-for-18 with a home run lifetime versus De La Rosa.
Take OVER .
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-13-16 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 |
Top |
88-98 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@BOS to go UNDER the total.
The playoffs haven't started yet, but the atmosphere at the Garden should resemble a playoff game tonight when the Celtics host the Heat in the final game of the season. Home court advantage is up for grabs, and we should see both teams play with an added intensity tonight. These teams have a history of playing defensive games, with five of the last six meetings going under. Only once in the last 10 meetings have we seen a total over 200, and they came up well short in that game with Boston winning 101-89 at home. Miami comes in as winners of four of it's last five, holding opponents well below 100 points in all four of those wins. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 12 when playing on one day's rest, and the Heat have gone under in four of their last five when playing on back to back nights. Miami has gone under in seven of it's last 10 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-13-16 |
Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
97-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@MIL to go UNDER the totaL. The Indiana Pacers have nothing to prove in their final game of the season, as they already know where they will play in the first round of the playoffs. We should expect the Pacers to rest their starters here in Milwaukee, but don't expect the Bucks to treat this like a meaningless game. After a frustrating season, finishing at home on a positive note would be big for the Bucks. They have a solid 23-17 home record, and should be more than capable of beating the Indiana bench players. Even at full strength, the Pacers aren't a great road team with a record of 18-22 outside Indiana. They've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and they have gone under in six straight when playing on back to back nights. The Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine in Milwaukee.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-12-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 205 |
Top |
98-102 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
Coming off three straight losses, you have to think Spurs coach Greg Popovich wants to give his team something to be positive about heading into the playoffs. They host Oklahoma City tonight, and the Thunder are expected to rest their starts. The last time Oklahoma City played at San Antonio, the Spurs won by a score of 92-85.
The Thunder shot just 38.3 percent from the field in that game, and were just 2-of-18 from beyond the arc. I don't expect their backups to have any more success at the AT&T Center tonight. The Spurs have won three of their last four home meetings with Oklahoma City, and they held the Thunder to an average of just 88 points in those wins.
The Spurs #1 ranked defense held Golden State to just 92 points on Sunday, but they couldn't stop the Warriors from winning their 72nd game of the season. I expect a similar effort on defense tonight, which should result in a convincing win over a short-handed opponent.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-12-16 |
Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SD@PHI to go OVER the total. The Phillies host the Padres in Game 2 of a three game set Tuesday, and both teams will turn to starting pitcher's that don't inspire much confidence. Charlie Morton will toe the rubber for the Phillies, and he was roughed up pretty good in his first start of the season. Morton was torched for six runs on five hits and three walks in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to Cincinnati. He didn't look good this Spring, and is coming off a brutal 2015 campaign. The Padres hand the ball to Robbie Erlin, who will come out of the bullpen to replace the injured Tyson Ross. Erlin was 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in just three starts last season. Neither of these starters is likely to go deep into the ballgame, and that leaves us with two of the worst bullpens in the majors likely to get plenty of work. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-10-16 |
Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-130 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TEX@LAA to go OVER the total. After losing two of three at home to Texas, the Angels look to salvage a split in the series finale on Sunday. Both teams will turn to the back end of the rotation this afternoon, and I think today will be a good day for hitters.
Jered Weaver will toe the slab for the Angels, and at the age of 33 his years of being an elite pitcher appear to be behind him. He was brutal in 2015, and he's coming off a terrible Spring. He really struggled in day games last year, going 0-4 with a 6.61 ERA in six starts.
The Rangers hand the ball to Martin Perez, who was rather pedestrian through six innings in a 10-2 loss to Seattle in his season debut. He only gave up two runs on two hits, but he walked four and surrendered a home run. He failed to win a single game on the road last year, going 0-5 with a 4.81 ERA in eight starts.
The over is 7-3-2 in the Rangers last 12 road games, and 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-09-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 207 |
Top |
107-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Celtics will play in Atlanta in the second game of a back to back, after beating up on Milwaukee at home last night. This is a huge game for both teams, with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs up for grabs. The Celtics will have their work cut out for them, as Atlanta has really been on a roll. The Hawks have won 14 of their last 18 overall, and they held opponents under 100 points in 11 of those 14 wins. They rank 6th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.9 points per game, and they've held Boston below 100 points in three of their last four home meetings with the Celtics. These two teams have failed to reach the total in nine of the last 13 meetings in Atlanta. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, while the Hawks have gone under in nine of their last 12 home games. With such high stakes in tonight's game, we should expect to see both teams fighting hard on defense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-09-16 |
Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 7 |
Top |
12-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Cardinals have struggled at the plate so far, coming into Game 2 of this series versus Atlanta batting just .204 through their first four games. It won't get any easier tonight, facing Atlanta's ace.
Julio Teheran allowed a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a no decision versus Washington on Opening Day. He's been brilliant in Atlanta, going 22-10 with a 2.66 ERA in 49 starts at Turner Field since 2013. He's also been great in previous meetings with the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts versus St. Louis during that span.
The Cardinals hand the ball to Carlos Martinez, who is coming off a fantastic 2015 campaign. The right-hander was 8-3 with a 2.54 ERA in 14 starts on the road, and he tossed eight innings of shutout ball in his only start versus Atlanta last year.
Atlanta is batting a major league worst .181 so far this season, which is familiar territory, as they were dead last in batting average for the entire 2015 season.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-09-16 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 7 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@CIN to go OVER the total.
We saw a slugfest in Cincinnati on Friday, with Pittsburgh winning by a score of 6-5. The bookmakers come back with a really low total in Game 2 this afternoon, but with the weather conditions favoring hitters, my money is on the over.
Gerrit Cole will toe the slab for the Pirates, and he was dominant in 2015. An interesting note about Cole, it seems that the Reds have been his Kryptonite. The right-hander was 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA in four starts against the Reds last year.
The Reds hand the ball to 26 year old right-hander Raisel Iglesias, who was fortunate to face Philly in his first start of the season. He was 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in two starts versus the Pirates in his rookie season.
The Reds lineup is hitting .311 over a combined 74 at bats versus Cole, and Brandon Phillips is 6-for-14 with a pair of RBIs.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-09-16 |
Yankees v. Tigers OVER 9 |
Top |
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYY@DET to go OVER the total.
We saw a pitcher's duel in the Motor City on Friday, with the Tigers winning 4-0. I think today's game will turn into a slugfest, with two struggling pitchers starting in a hitter's park, with weather conditions that favors the bats.
C.C. Sabathia will start the season as the Yankees fifth starter, but whether or not he can hold his spot in the rotation remains to be seen. He didn't look all that impressive in Spring Training, going 1-3 with a 5.51 ERA. He was brutal in 2015, especially in day games, posting a 7.36 ERA in five starts in the afternoon.
The Tigers counter with Mike Pelfrey, who makes his debut for Detroit after coming over from the Twins in the off-season. Pelfrey had a decent Spring, but gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings in his most recent outing. He was 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in two starts at Comerica Park last year.
The Yankees lineup has seen plenty of Pelfrey, and he hasn't fooled anyone. They are hitting .366 over a combined 123 at bats versus the right-hander. Brian McCann is hitting .452 with eight doubles, two homers and 11 RBIs in 42 career at bats against Pelfrey.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-08-16 |
Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
93-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Mavs winning streak is now at five games heading into tonight's home game against Memphis. They have been dominant on defense during that span, holding opponents to just 86 points per game. The bookmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that teams playing for playoff spots tend to tighten up the defense, and the total was over 200 in each game during the Mavs run. It appears that they've spotted the under trend, and have adjusted by shaving a few points off the number. I don't think they've adjusted enough though, as not one of the Mavs last five games has reached tonight's number.
Their opponent tonight is down three key starters, including their PG Mike Conley. Memphis is not a great offensive team at the best of times, as one of just half a dozen NBA teams that fail to average 100 points per game. The Mavs are also down a starting PG, although J.J. Barea has been brilliant filling in for D-Will. Dirk Nowitzki is really struggling offensively, shooting just 23-of-84 over his last five games. Backup center Salah Mejri has been a defensive dynamo, with seven blocks in his last three games, despite averaging less than 20 minutes.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-07-16 |
Bulls v. Heat UNDER 206 |
Top |
98-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* (GOW) play on CHI@MIA to go UNDER the total. Last week's big bet in the NBA was on the under in a game between the Bulls and the Pistons, and that Bulls lost that game at home by a score of 94-90. They now sit 2.5 games back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and whatever slim hopes they have will end tonight if they lose in Miami. The Heat are in a battle for one of the top four spots, trailing Boston by just half a game. Miami is coming off a 107-89 home win over the Pistons, putting on another defensive clinic. The Heat rank 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, surrendering just 98.3 points per game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of the last eight. Nine of those 10 games saw a total below 200, and tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those previous games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
04-07-16 |
Red Wings v. Bruins UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@BOS to go UNDER the total.
The Red Wings take on the Bruins in a Titanic matchup at TD Garden tonight, and the Bruins trail Detroit by two points in the Eastern Conference standings. A loss tonight would make it highly unlikely that he Bruins would make the playoffs, and I expect Boston to play like a desperate team facing elimination. The Bruins last game against Carolina was a very tightly contested battle, with the Hurricanes winning 2-1 in a shootout. With so much at stake for both teams tonight, we should expect another low scoring affair. The Bruins haven't gone over in any of their last five home games, and Detroit has gone under in four of it's last five when playing one one day's rest.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-06-16 |
Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
86-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Rockets and the Mavericks will play a Titanic game in Dallas tonight, with the eighth and Final playoff spot in the West up for grabs. The Mavs have won four straight, putting them in seventh in the West, one game ahead of Houston. During that span they've put on a defensive clinic, holding opponents to an average of just 86 points. The Rockets are on the outside looking in, sitting in ninth. Houston is one of the league's highest scoring teams, but as they've been battling for a playoff spot, they've trended toward lower scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of their last eight. They don't score quite as much on the road, and they've gone under in four straight away from Houston. We should see a cautious approach from two teams fighting for their lives, and tonight's total appears to be a little inflated. As I have said several times this week: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late."
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-06-16 |
Nationals v. Braves OVER 7 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Braves couldn't hang on to a 3-2 lead on Opening Day, allowing the Nats to tie the game in the ninth, and win 4-3 in the 10th inning. Atlanta's bullpen was a disaster in 2015, and so far it looks like this year isn't going to be any better. That combined with a struggling starter taking the mound for the Braves today, and I expect the Nats to score plenty of runs in Game 2 of the series.
Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visitors, and he owned the Braves last year. He hasn't always been successful against Atlanta though, and the Braves best player has hit him hard. Freddie Freeman is batting .429 with three home runs and nine RBIs in 28 career at bats. The 27 year old right-hander also has a history of slow starts and strong finishes. April has not been his best month, going 5-8 with a 3.80 ERA in 16 starts since 2013.
The Braves hand the ball to Bud Norris, who was downright terrible in 2015. He didn't look any better in Spring Training, going 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA in six appearances. The 31 year old is 0-1 with an 11.12 ERA in four appearances versus Washington since 2013. April is also his worst Month, going 4-7 with a 6.44 ERA in 13 starts in April over the last three seasons.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-06-16 |
Pistons v. Magic UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
108-104 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@ORL.
After a lopsided loss at Miami last night, the Pistons have slid all the way to eighth in the Eastern Conference, clinging to the final playoff spot. They have a two game lead on the ninth place Bulls, but they can't afford to keep losing or they could miss the playoffs all together. A win in Orlando tonight would give them plenty of breathing room, and I expect to see a solid effort. Detroit has failed to score 100 points in five straight games, and it has only surrendered an average of 97.8 points during that span. These two teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over the total in six of the last seven meetings. Tonight's total is significantly higher than it was in any of those games, and there's a lot more at stake for the Pistons here tonight. The Pistons have gone under in nine of their last 11 road games, and five straight overall. They have won three straight in this series, holding the Magic to an average of 96 points in those games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-06-16 |
Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@PIT to go UNDER the total.
The Cardinals will look to avoid the sweep in the series finale at Pittsburgh tonight, and we should be in for a pitcher's duel with Mike Leake starting opposite Juan Nicasio.
Leake was light's out in Spring Training, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA, striking out a whopping 24 batters in 20 innings. He's always been a better pitcher on the road than he was at home, although that might change now that he got out of Cincinnati. He was 5-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 15 starts on the road last year, and he was 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in four starts versus Pittsburgh.
Nicasio was untouchable in 15 innings this spring, holding the opposition scoreless while striking out 24 batters. The 29 year old is making his Pirates debut, and he's got a chance to pitch in a more pitcher friendly environment after spending the last five years in Colorado.
Cold weather in Pittsburgh is expected to make it more difficult for hitters hear, as the ball shouldn't have a lot of carry on it. The Pirates have failed to reach the total in four of their last five at PNC Park.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-05-16 |
Dodgers v. Padres OVER 6.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-118 |
23 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAD@SD to go OVER the total.
So much for PETCO being a pitcher's park. It was once thought to be the most pitcher friendly park in the majors, but that all changed last year. The over is 42-18-3 in the Padre's last 63 overall. Last night the Dodgers ran roughshod scoring a whopping 15 runs. Given tonight's pitching matchup, I think we should see a few runs scored here in Game 2.
Big Game James, at least that's what they used to call him. James Shields was supposed to be the ace of the staff in San Diego, but he gave way to Tyson Ross on Opening Day, and that says a lot about where he's at in his career. He was horrible this Spring, going 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA. He's been mediocre at best at PETCO, and the over is 12-3-1 in Shields' last 16 home starts.
The Dodgers hand the ball to Scott Kazmir, who makes his Dodgers debut. He didn't miss many bats this Spring, surrendering 12 runs on 25 hits over 16 innings. He hasn't had much success against the Padres lineup, as San Diego is batting .329 over a combined 76 at bats against the southpaw.
The Padres have seen the total go over in five straight versus left-handed starters.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-05-16 |
Pistons v. Heat UNDER 204 |
Top |
89-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Heat host the Piston tonight in a game with massive playoff implications. The Heat are fighting for home court advantage in the first round, while Detroit still needs to clinch one of the last spots in the East. The Pistons have won each of the previous two meetings this season, and both those games went under the total. I bet on the under in Detroit's last game, a 94-90 win over the Bulls in Chicago.
Here is what I said prior to tip off: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late. The Pistons lost at home to Dallas last night, three days after beating the Thunder 88-82. Detroit has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last nine on the road, while the Bulls have gone under in five straight. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings"
It's a similar situation here tonight, and we see another inflated total in a game that appears to feature two teams trending toward low scoring games. The under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. The Heat have failed to reach the total in four of their last five, while Detroit has gone under in eight of it's last 10 road games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-05-16 |
Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 7 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STL@PIT to go OVER the total.
The Pirates beat the Cardinals by a score of 4-1 on Opening Day, but I expect a different outcome here in the second game of the series. The Pirates hand the ball to veteran southpaw Jonahton Niese, and he has a history of struggling against St. Louis.
Niese was lit up for eight runs on 16 hits over 12 2/3 inning in two starts versus the Cards last year. He's also making the move away from pitcher friendly Citi Field, and hasn't had much success in his new home at PNC Park. He's posted a 6.75 ERA in five starts in Pittsburgh since 2013. The 29 year old got shelled in four appearances this Spring, going 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA.
The Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha, who was 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts versus the Pirates last year. Wacha was also good on the road, going 10-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 starts.
Matt Carpenter drove in the Cardinals only run in Game 1, and he's 4-for-8 lifetime versus Niese.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-05-16 |
Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@NYY to go UNDER the total.
The Bronx Bombers were rained out yesterday, but they are all set to host the Houston Astros in what we expect to be a pitcher's duel at Yankee Stadium this afternoon. Dallas Keuchel will start opposite Masahiro Tanaka on a sunny but cold day in the Bronx. These conditions should favor the pitchers.
Keuchel certainly likes pitching in the afternoon, he was 6-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 11 starts in day games last year. He also loves pitching against the Yankees, as he was 2-0 versus New York last year, tossing 16 scoreless innings against them. If Spring Training is any indication, the Bronx Bombers are in for a rough day. Keuchel was flawless this Spring, striking out 16 in 17 scoreless innings of work.
The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who has been a far better pitcher at home than he has been on the road. Tanaka is 13-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 24 career starts at Yankee Stadium, and he's another pitcher that doesn't mind a matinee.
Keuchel and Tanaka were the starters the last time these teams faced each other (AL Wild Card Game), and the Astros won 3-0. I expect a similar result here today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-04-16 |
Villanova v. North Carolina UNDER 151.5 |
Top |
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on VILL@UNC to go UNDER the total.
Both the Wildcats and the Tar Heels were executing on offense in their final four wins, and each team put plenty of points on the board. Still, neither team came even close in their respective Final Four games to reaching the inflated total for Monday's Final. When you get deep into the tournament, the stakes get higher, and that usually means the defense clamps down even more. The Wildcats defense has been particularly impressive, allowing opponents to average just 60.6 points on 42 percent shooting in the tournament so far. This will be the third time since 2010 that the Championship Game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston. Because these games are being played in a football stadium, it is thought to change to the depth perception of the shooters, bringing down scoring averages. This is what's known as the "Dome Effect". Both ESPN and the New York Times published articles discussing this phenomenon over the last few days, and I noticed one interesting stat from ESPN. According to their FiveThirtyEight article, in 12 NCAA Tournament games played at NRG Stadium, teams have scored an average of 65.4 points ON 44.5 percent shooting. In order to reach tonight's total, both teams would have to eclipse that average by at least 10 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-04-16 |
Dodgers v. Padres OVER 5.5 |
Top |
15-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAD@SD to go OVER the total.
The Dodgers are a huge favorite on the road at San Diego on Opening Day, and it's worth remembering that Clayton Kershaw cost bettors more money than any other pitcher in the majors last season. He still had a fine year, going 16-7 with a 2.13 ERA. The problem is that he's such a huge favorite every time he takes the mound that those few losses combined with a couple of blown leads by his relievers, and bettors are out a fair chunk of change.
It's also worth noting that throughout his career, Kershaw has been a slow starter. His numbers are lights out in June, July and August, but since 2013 he's just 4-4 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts in April.
The Padres will counter with Tyson Ross, who was just 4-9 with a 3.70 ERA at home last year. The 29 year old was roughed up this Spring, going 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in five appearances. He's 0-6 with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts versus the Dodgers since 2013.
Another interesting note is that while PETCO Park had been rated as one of the most pitcher friendly venues in the majors, that changed last season. The over is 41-18-3 in Padres last 62 overall. The Dodgers have gone over in seven straight when Kershaw pitches versus San Diego.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-04-16 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 5 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on WAS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Washington Nationals will be in Atlanta to take on the Braves on Opening Day, and we should be in for a classic pitcher's duel here at Turner Field. Mad Maz Scherzer will start opposite Julio Teheran, and both aces looked sharp this Spring.
Teheran was 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 17 home starts in 2015, and he's 22-10 with a 2.66 ERA in Atlanta since 2013. Theu nder is 8-3 in Teherans last 11 home starts, and the Braves have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 12 home games.
Scherzer has been particularly sharp on the road, going 25-11 with a 2.68 ERA in 52 starts away from home over the last three years. His day/night splits are even more encouraging, as he's 21-6 with a 2.64 ERA in 37 starts in day games since 2013.
The Nationals have failed to reach the total in six straight road games, and the under is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last 4 road starts.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-03-16 |
Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 209.5 |
|
107-100 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on BOS@LAL to go UNDER the total.
The Celtics come into LA as winners of five of their last seven, but given the magnitude of their upset win at Golden State, we could see Boston suffer a let down here. The Lakers won their last game 102-100 in overtime versus Miami, but it would be a mistake to think that this team is anything other than a steaming hot mess. They lost four straight prior to the win over the Heat, and they've scored an average of just 95.4 points per game over their last five. Both teams could suffer a let down here tonight, and the Celtics have failed to reach the total in seven straight coming off an ATS win. They've also gone under in eight of their last nine when playing on one day's rest, and five of their last six overall. The Lakers have also been trending toward the under, failing to reach the total in 10 of their last 13 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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04-03-16 |
Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 207.5 |
|
88-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on DAL@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Mavs have won three straight, putting them back in the hunt for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The recipe for their success has been strong defensive play, as they've allowed opponents to average just 88.7 points per game during this winning streak. I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late.
Minnesota has lost three of four, and they were held to an average of just 82.6 points in those losses. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five head to head meetings, and four of the last five at Minnesota have gone under. With so much at stake for the Mavs, expect to see a battle for each possesion, with no easy buckets conceded. Dallas has been great on the road against inferior opposition, and the under is 9-3 in their last 12 road games versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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