Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons -6 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 88 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Jesse Schule |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. Indy wasn't able to get anything going with the running game last week, gaining only 54 yards. They aren't likely to have much more success tonight, as the Eagles effectively shut down Jacksonville's running game last week. Trent Richardson has been a huge bust, and his backups aren't scaring anyone either.
Jesse Schule. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 161 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Jesse Schule |
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09-14-14 | Houston Texans -3 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 30-14 | Win | 111 | 157 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans. Jesse Schule |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks -5.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 156 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. Even after winning the Super Bowl last season, there are still plenty of skeptics when it comes to Russell Wilson. He hasn't really given anyone any reason to doubt him though, and now that he has a healthy Percy Harvin to throw to, I expect his numbers to increase significantly in 2014. He completed 69% of his passes for 191 yards and a pair of TDs in Week 1, and that was against a pretty solid Packers defense. The Chargers are coming off a short week, while Seattle has had nine days to prepare a game plan for today's contest. Despite the fact that this game is in San Diego, it still looks like a good spot for Wilson and the Hawks. Phillip Rivers looked out of sorts against Arizona last week, and the Chargers blew an 11 point fourth quarter lead. It won't get any easier against the defending champs just six days later. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Washington Redskins -5.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 153 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. I'm expecting a big game from former Eagle DeSean Jackson today - not even three turnovers in the first half was enough to stop his former team from defeating the Jaguars by a score of 34-17 in Week 1. Jackson meanwhile had eight catches for 62 yards against a tough Houston defense last week. He should find more room at home this week against a Jaguars that still looks like they have trouble defending the pass. There is a lot of talk about how much Jacksonville has improved, but surrendering 34 unanswered points in the second half last week proves that they still have a long way to go. The Redskins however sure showed signs that this defense is going to be greatly improved after ranking near worst in the NFL a year ago. Washington hung around in Houston last week, only conceding 17 points in a loss. Getting the Skins at home favored by less than a TD seems like quite a bargain to me. Take WASH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers. The Cardinals open the 2014 season at home in a Monday night game versus the San Diego Chargers. Arizona is a favorite here, despite the fact that they are a little banged up. Running back Andre Ellington is suffering from a foot injury that could keep him out tonight, if he is able to start, he will be playing through pain and will likely see limited touches. Backups Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer don't inspire a lot of confidence, and running the ball could be a tough task for the home team here. |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos The Colts were 5-3 on the road last year, but they probably should have been 3-5. Why? Because they were blown out in the first half at Houston, and then staged an improbable comeback in the second half to steal a game that appeared to already be lost. They went on to do the same thing two weeks later at Tennessee, and then they did it again in the playoffs at home against the Chiefs. It took a whole lot of Luck (pun definitely intended) for the Colts to win 11 games last year, and I don't like their chances of repeating that success here in 2014. They have a tough match-up in Week 1, on the road at Denver, and this game has blowout written all over it. Peyton Manning rewrote the record books last year, throwing for nearly 5,500 yards and 55 TDs. He won't have Wes Welker in Week 1, but that's unlikely to slow him in the slightest bit. Demarius and Julius Thomas, along with Emanuel Sanders will certainly give him enough targets to choose from . Denver will be looking to avenge a loss at Indianapolis last year, and with a greatly improved defense and the advantage of playing at Mile High Stadium, they shouldn't have any trouble executing their revenge. The Broncos won last year's season opener by a score of 49-27 against the Ravens, and I expect a similar scoreline tonight. Take DEN, GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-07-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Philadelphia Eagles -10 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 249 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesse Schule |
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09-07-14 | New England Patriots -4.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-33 | Loss | -105 | 249 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots. Jesse Schule |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 226 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 89 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Denver Broncos (First Half)
Denver's win versus San Diego last weekend avenged their only home loss this season. They didn't exactly light up the scoreboard as we have seen them do so often this season, but perhaps the most impressive statistic is that the Broncos punter never stepped on the field. Their offense steadily engineered long clock killing drives, with a power running game featuring Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. When called upon, Peyton was razor sharp. The Patriots have their own power running game, and LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley combined to score six rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Running on the Broncos figures to be a little tougher though, as Denver's defense has been far stronger against the run. San Diego gained only 65 yards on the ground last week, and that marked the third straight game that Denver held it's opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing. A lot has been made of the matchup between Brady and Manning, and the fact that Brady has won 10-of-14 previous meetings. I don't put much stock in that stat, this is a new game, and Peyton has the advantage of playing at home in Denver. The Pats defense ranks last in the league against the run, allowing an average of 134 rushing yards per game. They aren't that much better against the pass, and Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Denver terrorized Phillip Rivers last week, sacking him four times, and forcing him to get rid of the ball early on numerous occasions. Brady could be spending a lot of time pulling his butt off the turf, as New England's pass protection leaves a lot to be desired. Brady was sacked exactly twice as many times as Manning during the season (40). Belichick and Brady have defied all odds by getting this injury riddled team, with a depleted receiving corps all the way to the AFC Championship game, but I expect the injuries to take their toll here in Denver, and the Pats should come up short. Take DEN - First Half ML. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -9 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver (1st Half)
The San Diego Chargers are the "Giant Killers", as they have now beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Eagles in Philly, The Bengals in Cincy.. and of course they beat the Broncos in Denver just last month. That was then, and this is now. If you look at their win in Cincinnati, the Chargers went into that game with a very conservative game plan. It was more of a case of the Bengals beating themselves, with four turnovers. The Chargers played well defensively, terrorizing Andy Dalton, but come on .. he's no Peyton Manning. Last week's battle with the Bengals took it's toll on San Diego, as Ryan Mathews left the game with an ankle injury, and they also lost their starting center. Remember that Denver actually did beat the Chargers in San Diego back in November by a score of 28-20. This Broncos defense has been good against the run all year long, and coming off a week of rest should benefit the Broncos tremendously. Now that you mention it, the last time the Broncos played after a bye week was their victory in San Diego earlier in the year. Take the Denver 1ST Half. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers will be a big underdog on the road in Cincy, playing the 11-5 Bengals who were 8-0 at home this season. They also beat the Chargers in San Diego by a score of 17-10 earlier this season. The Chargers didn't roll over in that game, going to the locker room tied 7-7 at the half, but eventually losing 17-10. They limited Andy Dalton to 190 yards and a touchdown and an interception on 14-of-23 passing. The Chargers have thrived in the roll of an underdog this season, winning on the road in Kansas City, Denver and Philadelphia. Philip Rivers has a higher QBR on the road than he does at home, and he's thrown for 2,496 yards and 15 touchdowns away from San Diego this season. Andy Dalton has had some big games, no doubt about that, but he's also had some real stinkers. He's been picked off 20 times this season, and four of those came last week against Baltimore (at home). The 26 year old hasn't inspired much confidence in the playoffs the past two season's throwing four interceptions and getting sacked six times without throwing a single touchdown pass. In a big game, with winner takes all, I am inclined to put my trust in a veteran and proven performer like Rivers. I not only think the Chargers will cover, I think they have an excellent chance to win this game outright. Take San Diego. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Chip Kelly's offense have been impressive when things have gone their way. But remember a few weeks ago in Minnesota they were blown out by the Vikings, with Matt Cassel putting up video game type numbers. It was another backup quarterback last week that had his way with the Eagles secondary, Kyle Orton threw for 358 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now Philly has to try to contain Drew Brees, and hope that their own inexperienced quarterback can hold his composure. What really concerns me about the Eagles, is that throughout the season I have seen Chip Kelly make numerous terrible decisions, and there is no doubt in my mind that Sean Payton will out-coach Kelly here today. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs will be on the road in Indianapolis on Wild Card Weekend, and they will be the underdog. The Colts were fortunate to finish the season with three straight wins, one of those an upset of the Chiefs at Arrowhead. That game saw Kansas City turn the ball over four times, all but handing Indianapolis the victory. They were playing without several key starters in that game, and they expect most of those players to return for this game. "We'll see them again," Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson said. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us. If we go down there, it will be a different story. But we've got to fight our way back." The Colts caught a lot of breaks during the season, including miracle comebacks against Houston and Tennessee just two weeks apart. Ultimately I just don't think their defense can stop the Chiefs running game, and without a serious running threat of their own, they are putting too much pressure on Andrew Luck. Take the Chiefs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas needs to win at home in their final game of the season in order to make the playoffs. Nobody is giving the Cowboys much of a chance without starting quarterback Tony Romo. That strikes me as a little strange, considering it was Romo that many blamed for losses to Denver, and much of the Cowboy's struggles this season. Veteran backup Kyle Orton will step in, and he's been a proven winner throughout his career (35-34 as a starter in nine seasons). Last week in Washington, I saw a Cowboys team that has plenty of fight left in it. Two weeks ago in Minnesota, I saw a Philadelphia team that looked lost, with a coach that could best be described as incompetent. Now Philly looked unstoppable against the Bears, but we should remember that Dallas dominated the Eagles earlier this season in Philadelphia. Nick Foles completed 11-of-29 passes for just 80 yards, getting sacked three times and leaving with a concussion. LeSean McCoy had just 55 yards on 18 carries in the loss. Dallas is getting quite a few points as the home underdog here, and I see no reason why this won't be a close game. Don't be surprised to see the Cowboys win outright. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers -9.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers are making a furious charge to get into the playoffs. I bet on San Diego in Week 12 in an upset victory on the road in Kansas City, and then again three weeks later in Denver (+$240 ML 1/H). San Diego will finish the season at home versus a Chiefs team with nothing left to play for. Expect Andy Reid to keep his star players on the bench, especially Jamaal Charles. Reid hasn't admitted that he intends to sit his starters, saying: "... This is one of those decisions you make, it's a bit of a gut feeling you go with." History tells us otherwise. Back in 2010, the Eagles finished the season at home versus the Cowboys in a meaningless game, and here is a quote from ESPN in the post-game recap: "Michael Vick and nearly every starter didn't play in a game that had no effect on Philadelphia's playoff positioning. The Eagles (10-6) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host Green Bay in a wild-card game next Sunday." The Chargers should be able to win decisively in a must win game, playing against Kansas City's backups. Take San Diego. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals must win this game if they have any chance to make the playoffs, while the Niners can clinch home field with a win on the road, and a Seattle loss. It might be asking a lot for the Seahawks to lose at home to St. Louis though, and winning in Arizona isn't gonna be easy either. The Cardinals are 6-1 at home, and their only loss came at the hands of those pesky Seahawks. They have won seven of their last eight overall, and the only defeat came on the road in Philly in a game decided by just three points. San Franscisco has won five straight, since suffering back to back losses to Carolina and New Orleans. Four of those five wins came against teams with losing records, while the exception was a 19-17 win over the Seahawks in San Francisco. In fact, if you ask yourself how many road victories the Niners have versus teams with a winning record, the answer you will come up with is ZERO! Their road wins came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, St. Louis and Washington. Carson Palmer was picked off four times last week in Seattle, and still the Cardinals managed to upset the Seahawks. Interceptions have plagued Palmer throughout his career, and he's been picked off 21 times this season, but only six of those came at home in Arizona. Palmer doesn't have to be perfect here, he just has to be better than Colin Kaepernick, and that shouldn't be a problem. Take ZONA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -12 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Bucs have lost back to back games, and I can't see any reason why they would show up for a road game against a motivated Saints team that needs a win to improve it's playoff position. The Saints have clobbered the opposition at home this year, with a 7-0 record at the Superdome. Some might be wary of laying double digits, but I am expecting this to be all Saints, from start to finish. Take New Orleans. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos -10 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The #Broncos led by just three points heading into the fourth quarter of last week's game on the road in Houston, but went on to score 21 unanswered points in the final period. Denver will wrap up the season on the road in Oakland, and the Broncos need a win to lock up top spot in the AFC. The #Raiders have made the controversial decision to start Terrelle Pryor at quarterback in the season finale, after he lost the starting job to Matt McGloin. The move doesn't sit well with Pryor's agent, who says the team is putting his client in a position to fail. Pryor has been picked off six times, without throwing for a single touchdown in his last five appearances. He's been dangerous with his legs, but Denver's defense has been good against the run all year. They held RGIII to just seven yards on five carries, and earlier in the season they roughed up Mike Vick in 52-20 victory over the Eagles. The Broncos will be without Von Miller on defense, but remember he didn't play while serving a suspension through the first five games of the season. Injuries on offense might be a bigger concern, with Welker still suffering from a concussion and a banged up offensive line. Oakland did well last week, limiting Phillip Rivers to just 201 yards with one TD and an INT. We've seen the total go under in two of the last three meetings between these two teams, and the number for this game is way higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Expect Manning to rest in the fourth quarter if Denver has a big lead, and I wouldn't be too optimistic about Oakland scoring a lot of points here. Take the Broncos. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -2 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New York Jets.
The Jets lost again on the road last week in Carolina, but they did manage to cover the double digit spread. It's pretty clear that the Jets are a different team at home than they are on the road. Five of New York's six wins have come at the Meadowlands, and they host a Cleveland team that is 1-5 on the road this Sunday. The Browns have sent quarterback Brandon Weeden back to bench in favor of Jason Campbell, but the results were not good last week, losing at home to the Bears. Campbell was 23-of-39 for 273 yards and a touchdown, but he was picked off twice. He's lost each of his last four starts, and he's thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions (5) during that span. Geno Smith knows a thing or two about throwing interceptions, he''s been picked off 21 times this season. He'll be able to lean on a strong defense and power running game at home this week, and he's proven that he can be successful when he's not asked to do too much This has all the signs of a tough, hard fought, close game, but my money is on the home side to come out on top. Take NYJ. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Dolphins are red hot, winners of three straight and four of five. Let's not forget what happened the last time they played the Bills though, when Buffalo won outright as a double-digit underdog in Miami in Week 7. Ryan Tannehil was terrorized by the Buffalo defense, throwing a pair of interceptions in the loss. He was sacked four times last week in the win over the Patriots. The Bills have lost three of their last four at home, but two of those losses came in overtime. They have a history of playing close games versus the Dolphins, and we should see another close game here. E.J. Manuel did not play in the Bills Week 7 win in Miami, and he will sit out this game with a knee injury. Thad Lewis played well, completing 21-of-32 attempts for 201 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in that game. Lewis will be under center once again for the Bills, looking for just his second win as a starter. He threw for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 27-24 overtime loss to the Bengals in his season debut. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Colts were really slumping heading into last week's game versus Houston, but they turned things around with a big home win over the Texans. It should prove to be a lot tougher this week on the road at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are coming off a big win on the road at Oakland, by a score of 56-31. The Raiders just couldn't stop Jamaal Charles, who caught four touchdown passes and ran in one more. He could be in for a big game at home this week against one of the NFL's weakest run defenses. The Colts have allowed opponents to average over 128 rushing yards per game this season. The Colts have alternated wins and losses every week since Week 5, and there is every reason to expect that trend to continue here on Sunday. Note that the Colts needed miracle comebacks to win in Houston and Tennessee. Don't count on the Colts getting lucky this week. Take the Chiefs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -5.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions jumped out to an early 14-0 lead last week in Philadelphia, but they would end up losing in the snow to the Eagles by a score of 34-20. They are back in the dome this week, hosting the Ravens, who have really struggled on the road. Baltimore is just 1-5 away from home this season, and the Ravens have lost three straight at Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has thrown just one more touchdown than he has interceptions this season, and 11 of his 17 picks have come on the road, where he has just eight touchdown passes. The Ravens defense hasn't looked very impressive, and since losing to Denver they haven't really faced a top tier offensive team. Remember Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and seven touchdowns in the win on Opening Day. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are likely licking their chops at the thought of exposing this defense that allowed the vikings to score 20 points in the fourth quarter at home last week. Detroit's defense has been very good against the run, ranking 5th with opponents averaging fewer than 100 yards per game. This is likely going to force the Ravens to pass, resulting in less time coming off the clock with offensive possessions. We've seen high scoring games in six of the Lions last seven home games, and there is every reason to expect another barn burner tonight. When it's all said and done, I expect the home team to win and and cover. Take DET. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
10*
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has won five of it's last seven games, with the only losses coming on the road at Detroit and New Orleans. The loss to Detroit saw the Lions score a controversial touchdown to win by just a single point on the last play of the game. The loss to New Orleans was a complete massacre, but good teams have been losing big at the Superdome all year long. The Bears are a banged up team battling through injuries, and they have won just once in their last four games. Last week they lost in overtime to the Vikings, with Matt Cassel throwing for 243 yards and a touchdown. Adrian Peterson ripped through the Bears #32 ranked run defense for 211 yards on 35 carries. DeMarco Murray has been very effective running the ball, averaging almost 5 yards per carry. Given the Bears inability to stop the run, he should be looking at a big game here tonight. The Cowboys defense has given up an awful lot of yards in the air, and they rank at the bottom of the league against the pass. Don't be fooled though, consider that they played Denver, San Diego, Detroit, and the Saints in New Orleans, you could say those numbers are a little skewed. Josh McCown has been sharp filling in for Jay Cutler, but it's asking a lot for him to trade shots with Tony Romo. The Bears defense is going to have a tough time stopping Romo, as they could be without Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. On offense they won't have Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall has been limited in practice due to a strained quad. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -4 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 176 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
I cashed in on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, as they completely dismantled the Saints. It was no surprise to see New Orleans struggle away from the dome, but I expect to see a different team here tonight. After all, they are unbeaten at home (6-0), and they have dominated opponents at the Superdome. Carolina's defense has been impressive, but there is no defense for Drew Brees on his home turf. The Panthers have won eight straight, but three of their last four wins all came in close games, and they needed a little luck along the way. Carolina won by a single point in San Fran, then there was the controversial call on the final play versus the Pats, and a late rally to come back from a 16-3 deficit against the Dolphins. Cam Newton was picked off twice last week against Tampa Bay, and he's thrown six picks in his last five games. He's facing a Saints defense that ranked 4th against the pass, allowing an average of just 206 yards per game. New Orleans should prove to be too much for the Panthers here, and I'm expecting to see another blowout at the Superdome tonight. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks looked awfully impressive in a 34-7 blowout win over the Saints on Monday night. They will be on the road in San Francisco this Sunday, taking on a 49ers team that they beat by a score of 29-3 in Week 2 at home. Colin Kaepernick is finding life in the NFL to be a lot tougher than it was in his rookie season, and he has failed to live up to all the hype. He completed just 13-of-28 passes for 127 yards and no touchdowns, getting picked off three times in Seattle earlier this season. Seattle has a reputation as a team that struggles on the road, but that simply hasn't been the case since halfway through last season. The Seahawks are 5-1 on the road this year, while San Fran is 4-2 at home. I believe the Niners just don't match-up well against Seattle, especially Kaepernick facing this #1 ranked pass defense. Russell Wilson might not have the biggest arm, and he might not be as dangerous with his legs as RGIII, but he makes up for that with his decision making. He simply doesn't seem to make mistakes, which is incredibly rare for a young quarterback. Wilson has 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last five starts. Can you believe the Seahawks are getting points? Take Seattle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers -3 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers have just one win in their last five games, but it was an impressive showing on the road against the Chiefs. The Giants have won five of their last six overall, but all of those wins have come against backup quarterbacks, or teams with losing records. Philip Rivers is having himself his best season in years, throwing for 3,633 yards and 23 touchdowns so far. The Chargers rank 4th in the NFL in passing, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Statistically, the Giants appear to have an average defense, but those numbers have been aided by the circumstances. Facing Minnesota with Josh Freeman at quarterback, The Packers with Scott Tolzien under center, and a bunch of the NFL's bottom feeders in recent weeks. Eli Manning is still struggling, and three of his 18 interceptions have come in the last four games. The Giants won on the road in Washington last week, coming from behind. I don't expect to see the Chargers shoot themselves in the foot as did Washington. Take the Chargers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-01-13 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
Now anyone who follows my picks will know I am not a fan of RGIII and the Redskins, in fact before the season started I bet on Washington to finish with fewer than eight wins. That bet is looking pretty good right now, but I think Washington has a good chance to bounce back with a win here this week. As bad as they have played defensively, the Skins have been making improvements on the defensive side of the ball. They did a great job of shutting down the 49ers running game last week, Frank Gore had just 31 yards on 13 carries. The Giants running game doesn't pose much of a threat, New York is averaging just 88 yards per game on the ground. The Giants also struggled to defend the run last week against Dallas. DeMarco Murray ran for 86 yards on just 13 carries. Alfred Morris is having a fantastic season, and he should be a workhorse here against the Giants. The Giants are 4-7, and three of those four victories came at home. New York was fortunate to string together four straight wins against below average teams, and backup quarterbacks. It's asking a lot for the Giants to win on the road this week. Take the Skins. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -125 | 62 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The defending champions have struggled this season... or have they? Well not at home they haven't (4-1). The Ravens defense dominated again at home last week, holding the Jets to just a field goal on 220 yards of total offense. They registered three sacks and a pair of interceptions on Geno Smith, who was 9-of-22 for just 127 yards. They host the Steelers on Thanksgiving, and Pittsburgh has really turned things around since opening the season with four straight losses. They have won five of their last seven, one of those coming at home against the Ravens. Big Ben had a good game on the road against the Browns on Sunday, but he had thrown four picks in previous two road games, in losses to New England and Oakland. This Ravens defense is likely to cause him all sorts of problems, as they haven't been kind to opposing quarterbacks on their home turf. Ravens coach John Harbaugh used the wildcat against the Jets, and Joe Flacco has expressed his disapproval: "I don't like that stuff. ... I'm the quarterback," Flacco said. "I want to be behind the line of scrimmage, I want to be taking the snaps." Flacco has a point, the quarterback's job is to be behind the line of scrimmage taking the snaps. Last time I checked, it was the coach's job to call the plays and execute a game plan? That's something that Jon Harbaugh has done quite well, and I expect him to have his team well prepared for this game. Take the Ravens. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions (1st half)
As bad as the Lions have looked the past few weeks, I think we should see them pull it together at home on Thanksgiving against the Packers. Green Bay will start Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the third stringer looked good replacing Scott Tolzien last week at home against Minnesota. It's a whole different story though on the road in Detroit, as this Lions defense is significantly tougher than Minnesota's. You would think the Packers might want to lean on their running game with a third string quarterback under center, but that might not be an option either against the Lions #4 ranked run defense. Detroit has allowed an average of just 88 yards rushing per game this year. Matthew Stafford was throwing to the wrong team last week, and he's been a little inconsistent all year. He should be able to settle down at home, and he'll likely get some help from Reggie Bush. Given the success Bush has had, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, the Lions might want to give him a heavier workload. He's run for over 200 yards the last three weeks, despite only 41 attempts. I expect the Lions to jump out to an early lead, and I don't think we're going to see any miracle comebacks here in Detroit. Take the Lions. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -5.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 106 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners are coming off back to back heartbreaking losses, at home to Carolina, and on the road in New Orleans. They will look to turn things around in the nation's capital tonight against RGIII and the Redskins. Washington sits last in the NFC East, and they are coming off consecutive losses by a margin of 7+ points. Griffin completed 17-of-35 passes for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss to the Eagles last week, but he was sacked four times and he was picked off by Brandon Boykin. Protecting the quarterback has been a problem for the Skins all year long, and once again Shanahan has let him take a beating in games when he should have been pulled - such as the loss to Denver. It's not going to be easy for Griffin to move the ball against this Niners defense. In the last two weeks they've stuffed Carolina's running game, limiting the Panthers to 109 yards on 31 carries, and holding Drew Brees to a single touchdown pass at the Superdome. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the Panthers and the Saints are also among the top defensive teams in the league, and they couldn't get anything going offensively. That might not be the case tonight, despite slight improvements in recent weeks, Washington ranks near the bottom of the league both against the run as well as the pass. San Fran won the last meeting in Washington by a score of 19-11 in 2011, and they've won both meetings since 2005. I expect them to make it three straight tonight. Take the NINERS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos -1 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 109 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Tom Brady might not have liked the call on the final play of Monday night's loss to Carolina, but that wasn't the play that cost the Patriots the game. It was the previous drive by Carolina, with Cam Newton taking the Panthers 83 yards, scoring a touchdown on a 25 yard strike to Ted Ginn Jr. with less than a minute remaining. If New England's defense couldn't stop Cam Newton, it's hard to imagine they will have any success stopping Peyton Manning. The Patriots are missing several keys players on the defensive side of the ball, including Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. Their top two defensive backs were both knocked out of Monday's game in Carolina, and both (Talib & Arrington) are listed as questionable for tonight's game. The injury woes are not limited to the defense, as Amendola, Gronkowski and Vereen are all banged up, even though all three are expected to play. I hear a lot of talk about how bad this Denver defense is, and I can't help but think that is just utter nonsense. They've allowed an average of fewer than 20 points per game over the last three weeks, and they've racked up 10 sacks on opposing quarterbacks during that span. They give up a lot of passing yards, while ranking near the top of the league in run defense. It's not too hard to figure out though, opponents have been forced to pass, because nine times out of 10, Denver has opened up a big lead, winning by double digits. The Patriots are in a tough spot on a short week, with all their injuries. Take the Broncos. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. NY Giants | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
The Giants looked about as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars, going 0-6 in their first six games of the season. New York has since won four in row however, and the Giants are actually a favorite this week hosting the Cowboys. Buyer Beware! Those wins came against the likes of Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Scott Tolzien and Terrelle Pryor. Other than Pryor, the rest of those names are all backup quarterbacks that you may or may not recognize. The point is, the Giants have been piling up wins on poor teams with second string quarterbacks, and now they face a Cowboys team coming off a bye week. Dallas isn't going to be in a very friendly mood after getting shellacked by the Saints two weeks ago. I hear a lot of talk about how bad the Cowboys are, and how bad their defense is, but I think that's been blown out of proportion. Keep in mind, they've lost to the 9-1 Broncos, the 9-1 Chiefs, and the Lions in Detroit, by a combined five points. I think the Cowboys are going to win this game in rout, getting points is just an added bonus. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 104 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Colts have gone to halftime trailing by double digits in each of their last three games, but Andrew Luck was able to engineer miracle second half comebacks in two of those three games. I don't expect the Colts to be so fortunate this week, against an Arizona team that is far superior to the Titans and Texans. The Cardinals are 4-1 at home, and their only loss on home turf came against the Seahawks, widely considered to be the NFL's best team. In fact, of their four losses, three of those have come at the hands of elite teams, Seattle, San Fran and New Orleans. Carson Palmer has thrown for over 800 yards, with six TDs and just two picks, while winning his last three starts. Injuries have taken their toll on the Colts, who lost Reggie Wayne for the remainder of the season, and Heyward-Bey has been ineffective playing hurt. With Ahmad Bradshaw and Vic Ballard out, Indy's running game has suffered. Trent Richardson has done nothing since coming over from Cleveland, making the Browns GM look like a genius for dumping his salary. The Colts have played very poorly since coming out of the bye week, and I think it's going to catch up with them in Arizona today. Take the Cardinals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
10*
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints -9 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The 49ers were able to slow down this Saints offense last Sunday, but it's unlikely that the Falcons will have any answers for Drew Brees and the NFL's #2 passing offense. Last week the Falcons defense surrendered 41 points to a Bucs team that came in with just a single win, and hadn't scored more than 24 points in any of their previous nine games. They've now lost four straight, all by double digits, and after such a lackluster performance against a team with a 1-9 record, it's tough to imagine that they can turn this around. New Orleans completely shut down the San Francisco run game last week, and they are facing a Falcons offense that hasn't been able to run the ball all season. This has put more pressure on Matt Ryan, and part of the reason why he's thrown so many interceptions (9 in his last four starts). Injuries to Roddy White and Julio Jones haven't helped Ryan either, and while White is likely to play tonight, he's not 100%. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
Now I am not a Patriots fan, but I must admit that it has been amazing watching Tom Brady and Bill Belichick hold this team together, despite all the adversity they have faced this season. Things seem to be falling into place for New England though. With Gronkowski back, and Amendola healthy, they put up 55 points on the league's best pass defense in their last game, and they come into tonight's game with added rest coming out of the bye week. The Panthers might have won five straight, but four of those five wins came against teams with a losing record. Cam Newton has his moments, and everyone is talking about how great he's playing, but the reality is that he's thrown three INTs an just one TD pass the last two weeks. This isn't the first time this season the Patriots have faced a tough defense on the road, they won in Buffalo in Week 1, and lost in overtime to the Jets Week 7. They scored 50 points in those two games, and that was without all their weapons. There isn't a defense in the NFL that can stop Tom Brady when he's on top of his game, and I expect to see him have a big night tonight. Take the Patriots. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Kansas City Chiefs bring their perfect record into Denver, looking for an upset at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos aren't the most gracious hosts however, as visitors to Denver have left town with their tails between their legs since the Texans won here last September. The Chiefs may be 9-0, but it would be naive to think that because they have a better record, they are a better team. Kansas City has just narrowly avoided defeat in each of it's last three games, playing close games at home against Houston and Cleveland, and coming from behind to beat the Bills two weeks ago. There is a lot of talk that the Broncos defense can't stop the pass, but they looked pretty good last week limiting Phillip Rivers to 19-of-29 for 218 yards and a TD. Admittedly, Denver doesn't rank very well defending the pass, allowing an average of 287 yards per game. The thing is, they've jumped out to big leads in almost every game they have played, and they haven't allowed much against the run. Therefore opponents have abandoned the run, in an attempt to play catchup, and that has contributed to their high number of passing yards allowed. I believe this Denver defense is underrated, and the Chiefs are coming in as the most overrated team in football, and should be ripe for the picking. Take Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -2 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 154 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Niners looked terrible against Carolina last week, losing at home and ending a five game win streak. None of those five wins came against a team with a winning record, and they are playing a Saints team this week that is 7-2, 4-0 at home. San Francisco beat the Saints twice in 2012, but you can't really compare this year's team to the team that failed to make the playoffs last year without it's head coach. The Saints haven't just beaten teams in New Orleans, they have annihilated the opposition, winning by an average margin of more than 17 points. Their defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any of it's four games at home, and they rank third in the NFL against the pass, with opponents averaging fewer than 200 yards per game. Colin Kaepernick is coming off one of the worst games of his career, completing just 11-of-22 attempts, for 91 yards, failing to get in the endzone and getting picked off in the home loss to Carolina. Drew Brees and the Saints offense can put points on the board in a hurry, and if Kaerpernick is forced to pass, things could get ugly for the Niners. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-13 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 150 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bears have lost two of their last three games in Chicago, and they host the defending champion Ravens this week. Baltimore is coming off an overtime win against Cincinnati last week, but is still just 4-5 on the season. Chicago will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler, who is out with a high ankle sprain. Backup Josh McCown has played well in his place, and he's thrown four touchdowns without any INTs, although the Bears have lost 2-of-3 when he's seen action. The Ravens defense terrorized Andy Daulton last week, sacking him five times and forcing three interceptions. Joe Flacco hasn't exactly lived up to expectations after signing a big contract in the off-season. He's thrown just one more touchdown (12) than interceptions (11). He could be in for a big game against this Bears defense though, as Chicago hasn't had any success stopping the run or the pass. The Bears have covered the points just once in their last 11 home games, and they come in as a favorite today with their backup quarterback under center. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Titans.
Last week's loss to Jacksonville sure looks ugly for the Titans, and you might think they will need a better effort from their defense here tonight. When you dig a little deeper though, the numbers show that it wasn't the defense that was responsible for their loss last week. They picked off Chad Henne twice, sacked him three times and didn't allow a touchdown pass. Henne threw for just 180 yards on 14-of-23 passing, and the Jags didn't have any more success running the ball. Maurice Jones-Drew averaged just two yards per carry, and Jacksonville finished with just 54 yards on the ground. Three lost fumbles by the offense is what led to all the Jacksonville points, and clearly the Titans will have to do a better job of protecting the football. Chris Johnson had a terrible game last week, but after he ran for 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns the week before against the Rams, we know he still has it in him. The Colts are among the worst in the NFL defending the run, allowing an average of 127 yards per game. While both teams have their fair share of issues, the loss of Reggie Wayne is really taking it's toll on the Colts. The failed experiment that is Trent Richardson hasn't helped either, he was nearly going backwards with just two yards on five carries last week. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs (1st half).
The Bucs looked as good as they have all season in an overtime loss at Seattle last week, and they return home to host a Miami team that has is falling apart at the seems. Miami ended a three game losing streak with an improbable come from behind overtime victory at home over Cincy last Thursday. The Jonathan Martin "bullying" saga continues to haunt the Dolphins, and since the suspension of Incognito, several players have spoken publicly about the incident. This is a locker room with a toxic atmosphere, and it's spilling out on the field as well. The loss of two starters isn't going to help and offensive line that hasn't had any success keeping opposing defenses away from it's quarterback. The Bucs saw a lot of positives last week from rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, and fellow rookie Mike James. James ran for 156 yards on the Seahawks, and Glennon threw a pair of TDs on 17-of-23 passing. I think Tampa will come to play, don't be surprised if they win outright. GL, Jesse Schule |