My selection is on Miami plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

Indiana will attempt to do the unthinkable and wrap up an undefeated season on Monday. We'll grab the points with the Hurricanes as they've played with a giant chip on their shoulder throughout these College Football Playoffs and while not owning the same pristine overall record, have faced a more difficult schedule than the Hoosiers by most metrics. It's easy to forget that Indiana has been challenged at times this season, including a five-point win at Iowa, a three-point victory at Penn State, and another three-point victory in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. The Hoosiers have laid waste to Alabama and Oregon in the CFP but I do think the Canes can present a more difficult challenge in what amounts to a home game for them at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Indiana clearly looks unstoppable at this point and that's certainly not lost on the majority of bettors entering this College Football Playoff semi-final clash on Friday. We won with Oregon in its victory over Texas Tech last round and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Ducks again in this 'revenge' spot on Friday. Indiana went into Autzen and delivered a double-digit victory over Oregon during the regular season. What better time for the Ducks to get their revenge but with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line? While Indiana owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Oregon has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Few are giving the Ducks much of a chance in this matchup with many already crowning the Hoosiers in what has been an incredible season for the program. I simply feel grabbing the points will be paramount in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Ole Miss has captured everyone's attention after it prevailed in an overtime thriller against mighty Georgia in the quarter-final round of College Football Playoffs. That was obviously a revenge-fuelled victory for the Rebels, who have looked like a team on a mission. We'll fade Ole Miss off that 'upset' win, however, as Miami has all the tools to ultimately pull away in this contest. The Hurricanes had to be pleased to see the Rebels advance as I think they do match up well here. Miami has reeled off six straight victories including three in a row ATS and flips to a favored role off back-to-back 'upset' wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State. Of note, while they own the slightly worse overall record, the Canes have faced the more difficult schedule compared to the Rebels this season by most metrics. I think Miami's defense and ground attack will ultimately be the difference in this intriguing clash of styles. Take Miami (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on SMU plus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday.

With very little separating these two teams in all aspects, we'll grab the points (you should still be able to find the Mustangs catching a point at the time of writing) in this Friday night matchup. You could argue that Arizona's five-game winning streak to close out the regular season, which culminated with a lopsided win over rival Arizona State, was more important than anything it will possibly accomplish in this post-New Year's Bowl game against SMU. This is the year the Wildcats defense really stepped up and thrived off of takeaways, but as we noted in yesterday's play on Oregon over Texas Tech, turnovers aren't really a predictable metric and they can swing the other way at any given time. SMU had high hopes entering the season but those were quickly dashed with early losses to Baylor and TCU. The Mustangs did close out the regular season by going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS over their final eight contests. Despite it being an up-and-down season, I did like the way the Mustangs rose to the occasion in big games, on the road against Clemson and at home against Miami in particular. This is a team that has proven the ability to all but snuff out opposing ground attacks and I think that can serve them well as they look to make Arizona one-dimensional in this game. Take SMU (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not sure that Georgia is getting the respect it deserves in the College Football Playoffs. You hear a lot about Indiana to be sure. You did hear a lot about Ohio State and now will hear plenty about Miami following its 'upset' win on Wednesday. I like the way Georgia is set up to advance as it draws Ole Miss on Thursday. The Bulldogs own an identical 12-1 record to that of the Rebels, but Georgia has faced the more difficult schedule, albeit not by much, by most metrics. The last time we saw the Rebels they laid waste to an overmatched Tulane team in the opening round of the CFP on December 20th. That marked Ole Miss' second straight ATS victory. Of note, it is still just 4-4 ATS over its last eight games after starting the season 4-1 ATS. The Bulldogs have charted a similar course lately, going 3-3 ATS over their last six games. They have proven to be a streaky team from an ATS perspective this season and I'm confident they can post a second straight ATS victory here as this line seems a little light. Note that Georgia took the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-35 score in Athens on October 18th. I think that's leading many to believe that we'll see another very competitive affair here but I'm not convinced the Rebels offense can generate as much this time around. We know Georgia will make the necessary defensive adjustments and it enters this contest having held its last four opponents to a combined 29 points. The Ole Miss offense has been humming but it also faced a schedule that was front-loaded. Its last four games have come against The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State and Tulane. Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on Alabama plus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Thursday.

As strange as it seems, Alabama has been able to play the 'no one believes in us' card during the College Football Playoffs. The Crimson Tide had their doubters against Oklahoma in the first round, certainly after they fell behind big early in that game played in Norman. However, Alabama rallied and ended up winning that one by margin and I think it can hang again as it steps up in class to take on undefeated Indiana on Thursday. The Hoosiers certainly appear to be on a collision course with the National Championship after 'upsetting' Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December. While Indiana does own the better overall record in this matchup, Alabama has faced the more difficult schedule. I simply don't believe as much separates these two teams as is being represented by the pointspread. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama (8*).

My selection is on Oregon moneyline over Texas Tech at 12 noon et on Thursday.

We'll keep it simple with this play and back the Ducks on the moneyline as these two teams that haven't lost since October go head-to-head in the Orange Bowl for a spot in the College Football Playoff semi-final. While both the Ducks and Red Raiders are 12-1 on the season, not all records are created equal. Oregon has faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Texas Tech has feasted on the opposition's mistakes, whether forced or otherwise, with a whopping 18 takeaways over its last five games. Turnovers are obviously not really a predictable metric but I'm confident in the Ducks ability to take care of the football and not beat themselves in this game. Note that Oregon has turned the football over just five times over its last six games and 11 times all season. Take Oregon moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll lay the points with Ohio State as it looks to bounce back from its first and only loss of the season to date and advance to the College Football Playoff semi-final round. Miami is of course coming off a first round 'upset' win over Texas A&M at College Station. The Aggies had every opportunity to win that game but their offense fizzled in big moments. The Hurricanes leaned on their defense and did just enough offensively to secure the victory but I'm not sure they'll be so fortunate here. These two teams actually faced identical strength of schedules this season by most metrics. But of course, Ohio State posted the slightly better record. The Buckeyes loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game certainly stung but that was always going to be a difficult turn-around after blowout out hated rival Michigan the previous Saturday. I certainly don't think Ryan Day's squad is hanging its head entering this showdown on Wednesday and I like the Buckeyes to ultimately win by margin. Take Ohio State (8*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over TCU at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Trojans on the fast track at the Alamodome on Tuesday. USC rolled to a 9-3 record during the regular season and did so despite a difficult Big Ten schedule. TCU's Big 12 slate was more forgiving but it only managed to go 8-4 overall including a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven contests. Both teams do enter this game off lopsided victories the last time they played with USC beating rival UCLA 29-10 and TCU hammering Cincinnati 45-23. Neither of these teams have run the ball particularly well this season. With that being said, I like the Trojans chances of stamping out the Horned Frogs passing game on Tuesday and ultimately pulling away for a win and cover. Take USC (8*).

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Louisiana Tech at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

Louisiana Tech started the season 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS but went 3-4 SU and ATS the rest of the way and faced one of the weakest schedules in all of college football. Coastal Carolina on the other hand got off to a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS start but wrapped up the regular season with three straight losses both SU and ATS. The Chanticleers faced a considerably more difficult schedule than the Bulldogs. So here we're catching a ton of points with Coastal Carolina and of course opt-outs and injuries play a role in that. With that being said, I think the Chanticleers show up and ultimately give the Bulldogs a run in this Independence Bowl matchup on Tuesday. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Appalachian State at 2 pm et on Monday.

I'm seeing a lot of support for Appalachian State leading up to this game but the money has obviously been going in support of Georgia Southern given the line move. I'm not sure the Mountaineers have any business being in this game let alone catching just single-digits. Georgia Southern owns the better overall record this season and has faced the more difficult schedule. Appalachian State managed to stay competitive over its last two games (winning one of them in 'upset' fashion over Marshall) only thanks to winning the turnover battle by a 5-1 margin over that stretch. I think there's a class difference in this contest that isn't being properly reflected by the line. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

My selection is on LSU plus the points over Houston at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

This season certainly didn't go as planned for LSU. It got off to a 4-0 start but it was mostly downhill from there as it went on to lose five of its final eight games and now here it is in a less-than-appealing Texas Bowl between Christmas and New Year's. With that being said, I like the way the Tigers match up in this contest. While Houston owns the better overall record, LSU faced the much tougher schedule by most metrics. We saw the Tigers toughen up defensively down the stretch, holding their final four opponents to 22 points or less. Houston thrived thanks to an explosive offense over the course of the season, scoring 30+ points in seven of 12 games. I don't think this game will be played in that type of high-scoring environment, however, with the total set in the low-40's. The Cougars closed out the regular season with a big 'upset' win on the road against Baylor and I think they have a difficult time following it up a month later. Take LSU (8*).

Bowl Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Fresno State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Most might be quick to dismiss Miami-Ohio as a 6-6 MAC team going up against 8-4 Fresno State in Arizona on Saturday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Redhawks as I think they can put the Bulldogs on 'upset' alert in this one. Miami-Ohio may be 6-6 on the campaign but it has faced a considerably more difficult schedule than Fresno State by most metrics. The highlight for the Bulldogs was a 30-7 road win over eventual Mountain West Conference champion Boise State in early November. They did close out the regular season on a high note with three wins in their final four games including a blowout win over San Jose State in their regular season finale. Meanwhile, the Redhawks left a sour taste in their backers mouhts with a 23-13 'upset' loss against Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game earlier this month. Sure to be in a foul mood off that defeat, I like Miami-Ohio's chances of at least taking this one down to the wire on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over East Carolina at 11 am et on Saturday.

I can understand the temptation to grab the generous helping of points with East Carolina in this Bowl matchup. The two teams own identical 8-4 records after all and come off much different results with Pittsburgh getting crushed 38-7 by Miami and East Carolina rolling to a 42-3 victory over Florida Atlantic in the two teams' respective regular season finales. With that being said, Pitt has obviously faced the much more difficult schedule this season and I think it matches up well with a Pirates squad that beat the teams it should but didn't always rise to the occasion when stepping up in class this season. The common line of thinking is that the Panthers will be disinterested in an appearance in the Military Bowl but I think this is a proud program that shows up for this contest and ultimately wins by margin. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Florida International at 8 pm et on Friday.

Florida International played its way into this game late in the season, reeling off four straight wins both SU and ATS to close out the regular campaign. However, noting stops momentum like being idle for a month and that's the case for the Panthers here. UTSA won't have to travel far for this game in Frisco, Texas. While the Roadrunners own a slightly inferior overall record compared to the Panthers this season, they have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. UTSA's home field advantage has been incredibly pronounced over the years - particularly in conference play - but playing in Dallas should be comfortable. We'll lay the points, noting that the SU winner has gone 11-1 ATS in FIU's 12 games this season and I like the Roadrunners chances of prevailing. Take UTSA (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New Mexico at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

New Mexico is a nice story as it ends its long Bowl drought with an appearance in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field on Friday. I like Minnesota's chances of ending the Lobos six-game winning streak here, however, and dashing their hopes of a triumphant return to the Bowl picture. While New Mexico does own two more wins than Minnesota this season, the Golden Gophers have faced the far more difficult schedule. It's also worth noting that the Lobos lived off of takeaways down the stretch, amassing 11 over their final four regular season games. The Golden Gophers have done an incredible job of taking care of the football this season, committing multiple turnovers in only two of 12 games and turning it over a grand total of four times over their last nine games. Minnesota isn't as run-oriented as we've been accustomed to seeing over the years and I think that gives it a leg up in this particular matchup. The Lobos have proven stout against the run this season but can be beat through the air with relative consistency. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Ohio plus the points over UNLV at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I don't think there's enough to warrant a touchdown separating these two teams in terms of the pointspread on Tuesday. UNLV had an up-and-down season to be sure, culminating with a 17-point loss in the Mountain West Championship Game against Boise State. It was a similar story for Ohio, although it didn't manage to reach the MAC Championship Game thanks to a couple of key conference defeats. The Bobcats did end the regular season on a high note with consecutive wins but actually enter this Bowl matchup on the heels of three straight ATS defeats. While these two teams obviously play on opposite sides of the country, they faced virtually identical strength of schedules this season by most metrics. In a game that could very well go down to the wire, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Bobcats. Take Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over Western Kentucky at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Bettors don't seem to be taking a confident stake in either side of this New Orleans Bowl matchup on Tuesday. Perhaps rightfully so as both teams enter the game on multi-game losing streaks. Western Kentucky has proven to be the better bet overall this season but it undoubtedly had loftier goals than a New Orleans Bowl appearance (it last played in this game in 2022). For Southern Miss, this will be its first Bowl appearance since 2022. The Golden Eagles started strong this season with seven wins in their first nine games but lost three in a row to close out the regular season with an admittedly tough stretch that included games against Texas State, South Alabama and Troy. With little to choose between these teams, we'll back Southern Miss as an unpopular underdog. Take Southern Miss (8*).

My selection is on Washington State over Utah State at 2 pm et on Monday.

Washington State's football program could use a boost as it has fallen from prominence somewhat thanks to the crumbling and subsequent re-alignment of the Pac-12. The Cougars seemingly drew a line in the sand following an 'upset' loss at Oregon State at the start of November as they went on to win their final three games ATS with the lone loss coming in a narrow four-point defeat as a double-digit underdog at James Madison. Of note, while these two teams have posted identical 6-6 overall records this season, Washington State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Utah State has proven to be one of the best bets in the country this season, going 9-2-1 ATS. With that being said, I'm not sure how ecstatic the Aggies can be about playing at a familiar Mountain West Conference venue against a Cougars team that doesn't figure to generate a ton of enthusiasm. In a virtual pk'em, we'll seemingly go against the betting public and back Washington State. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on James Madison plus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

James Madison was essentially dismissed by most following an early season 28-14 loss in a primetime game at Louisville. From there, the Dukes reeled off 11 straight wins including a victory over Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game on December 5th, and here they are in the College Football Playoff. Few are obviously giving them a shot at upsetting mighty Oregon in Autzen but I'm willing to back them with a boatload of points in our back pocket. Of note, James Madison failed to cover the spread in that most recent win over Troy. We've only seen James Madison fail to cover the spread in consecutive games once previously this season and that happened back in early October. On the other side, Oregon enters riding a season-high six-game winning streak and also a season-high three-game ATS winning streak. While the Ducks should be able to hold off the Dukes in this contest, I simply feel they're laying too many points. Take James Madison (8*).

My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. 

The Aggies have had a few weeks to lick their wounds following an 'upset' defeat against Texas on November 28th - their first loss of the season. Texas A&M actually enters this game on the heels of three straight ATS defeats but I expect it to bounce back here against Miami. The Hurricanes own the slightly inferior record to that of the Aggies this season and they've also faced the considerably weaker schedule by most metrics (not that their schedule was 'weak' by any means). Miami is riding a four-game winning streak but checks in just 3-4 ATS over its last seven contests. We saw home field advantage ultimately amount to nothing in last night's 'upset' victory by the Crimson Tide (we won with Alabama in that game) but I think it will matter here. This will actually only be Miami's fifth true road game of the season after they posted wins over Florida State, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh but lost at SMU during the regular season. Take Texas A&M (8*).

My selection is on Alabama plus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Friday.

I like the setup for Alabama on Friday as it looks to bounce back following a lifeless performance in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia and also gain some revenge after getting 'upset' in the regular season meeting between these two teams in Tuscaloosa. The scene will of course shift to Norman for this rematch. While the Sooners own the slightly better overall record this season that's only by virtue of playing one less game. Alabama has actually faced the more difficult schedule, even if only slightly, by most metrics. The Crimson Tide proved they can win in hostile environments over the course of the season, including an 'upset' victory Between the Hedges in Athens. Oklahoma can be had here at home, noting that it did drop a 34-26 decision here against Ole Miss in late October. Take Alabama (8*).

Bowl Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and N.C. State at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

Memphis' offense got snuffed out in a 28-17 regular season-ending loss at home against Navy and it limps into this Bowl game riding a three-game SU and ATS slide. It will be in tough on Friday as well as it takes on a battle-tested ACC squad in N.C. State. The Wolfpack salvaged their season with back-to-back victories to close out the regular season including an 'upset' win over Florida State. While I do think N.C. State's offense can thrive in this matchup, I think it will have a difficult time containing the Tigers. Note that the Wolfpack have given up 31 points or more on six different occasions this season with the 'over' cashing at a 7-5 clip overall. Memphis' most recent contest was the only one of its last five to stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Western Michigan at 11 am et on Friday.

Fairly straight-forward selection here as we'll fade Western Michigan as it feels accomplished after securing a MAC Championship with a double-digit win over Miami-Ohio two weeks ago. In fact, the Broncos check in riding a five-game winning streak and have lost just once since September 20th. We'll back the Owls as they also come in hot, off three straight wins and with just one defeat since September 20th as well. They've faced the considerably more difficult schedule this season and own a virtually identical overall record. We'll gladly grab all the points we can get and do so at a favorable return. Take Kennesaw State (8)*.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Delaware at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

You could probably say this season can already be considered a success for FBS newcomer Delaware as it reached a Bowl game in its inaugural season at this level. The Blue Hens notched six victories but did so on the back of a fairly easy schedule - certainly easier than that of Louisiana-Lafayette by most metrics. It's also worth noting that following a 2-1-1 ATS start to the campaign, they went 2-6 ATS over their last eight regular season contests. Louisiana-Lafayette figures to be fuelled by missing out on the Sun Belt Championship Game as it was a case of too little, too late. The Ragin' Cajuns won their final four regular season games (3-1 ATS) but that wasn't enough to undo a poor start to the campaign. I do think they can outclass the Blue Hens in this matchup and while motivation or lack thereof is always a concern, I don't think it's an issue for a Ragin' Cajuns squad that is accustomed to playing in similar level Bowl games. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (8*).

My selection is on Troy over Jacksonville State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This line has moved considerably, as is often the case during Bowl season with opt-outs and absences to deal with. We'll still take a flyer on Troy, noting that while these two teams own identical overall records on the season, the Trojans have faced the considerably more difficult schedule. In fact, Jacksonville State has gone up against one of the weakest slate of opponents in all of college football this season by most metrics. Both teams suffered disappointing losses in their respective conference championship games. Troy has quietly been one of the best bets in the country since mid-September, going 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games. Jacksonville State had one stretch that saw it cover the spread in five straight games but went 3-5 ATS in its other eight contests including 1-2 ATS over its last three games. Take Troy (8*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Boise State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I think Washington is alright with playing in this early Bowl game after it missed its opportunity to take down Oregon at home in the final week of the regular season. That 26-14 loss that featured plenty of missteps figures to have left a sour taste in the Huskies mouths and I look for them to take their frustrations out on Boise State on Saturday. Keep in mind, while these two teams own almost identical records on the season, Washington has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Boise State can't be too pleased about playing in the L.A. Bowl after blowing the doors off UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game last week. That was the high point of the Broncos season of course and I think they could be in for a letdown here. It's been an up-and-down campaign for Boise State so you have to think it feels a real sense of accomplishment having stacked up another conference title. I look for it to fall flat on Saturday. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Army checked in ranked in the Top-25 and fresh off an AAC title but was stunned 31-13 against Navy last December. This time around, it's Navy coming off the banner regular season having gone 9-2 SU but just 4-7 ATS. We'll fade the Midshipmen as they enter this contest off consecutive 'upset' victories over South Florida and Memphis. Army turned things around about a month into the season, coinciding with the switch to Cale Hellums in place of Dewayne Coleman at quarterback. Save for a blowout loss at East Carolina in a game that was played on just four days rest in late September, the Black Knights were in virtually every game this season. They're not likely to beat themselves having turned the football over just three times in their last eight games (after committing six turnovers in their first three contests). Keep in mind, while the final score showed a blowout in this matchup last year, the Black Knights were within striking distance nearly midway into the fourth quarter (trailing 21-13 at that point). QB Bryson Daily had an uncharacteristically off day, throwing three interceptions in that game. I don't think Hellums will be asked to do too much in this one. Note that he showed his mettle in a narrow loss (but cover) on the road against a good Tulane team that would go on to win the AAC title. I think we'll see Army rise to the occasion and take Navy down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Army (8*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams just met on November 15th as Virginia rolled to a 34-17 'upset' victory on the road. The pointspread has flipped ahead of this rematch in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Blue Devils. While Virginia owns the better overall record this season, Duke has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. I like the way the Blue Devils picked themselves up and dusted themselves off following that defeat at the hands of the Cavaliers, rallying for wins over North Carolina and Wake Forest. Virginia couldn't have looked much better in last Saturday's 27-7 rout of in-state rival Virginia Tech. I can't help but feel that's left the Cavaliers overvalued in this rematch with the Blue Devils. Look for Duke to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Duke (10*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Indiana has obviously had a phenomenal season, running the table to this point with a 12-0 record - identical to that of Ohio State. However the Hoosiers are just 7-5 ATS compared to the Buckeyes 10-1-1 ATS mark and Ohio State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Indiana's 'upset' win on the road against Oregon back in October was impressive but apart from that, the Hoosiers simply took care of business in games where the result was rarely in doubt ahead of proceedings. Ohio State book-ended its regular season with impressive wins over Texas and Michigan and was rarely challenged in-between. The Buckeyes lone pointspread defeat came in a 24-point romp over Purdue. This is being pegged as a 'Clash of the Titans' of sorts with the two teams ranked number one and two in the country but I'm not convinced it will be the barn-burner most are expecting. It's been five years since Ohio State has been in the Big Ten Championship Game and I don't think it will take this one for granted. Take Ohio State (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Tulane plus the points over North Texas at 8 pm et on Friday.

North Texas has certainly enjoyed an incredible season, going 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on its way to an appearance in Friday's AAC Championship Game. With that being said, Tulane is no pushover. The Green Wave have faced the more difficult schedule than the Mean Green Eagles and check in sporting a 10-2 SU record. While Tulane hasn't enjoyed nearly the same level of pointspread success that's had a lot to do with the fact that it entered the season firmly entrenched on the betting marketplace's radar. While the Green Wave closed the regular season on a 2-4-1 ATS slide over their last six games, they went 6-1 SU over that stretch with all six wins coming by at least six points including an 'upset' victory on the road against Memphis. We'll grab all the points we can get in this much-anticipated matchup. Take Tulane (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Troy at 7 pm et on Friday.

Credit Troy for reaching this Sun Belt Championship Game as it reeled off back-to-back wins and covers against Georgia State and Southern Miss to close out the regular season. Keep in mind, the Trojans are just two games removed from a two-game slide that saw them get outscored by a combined 56-10 margin against Arkansas State and Old Dominion. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 10 straight games involving Troy. James Madison was pretty much discarded following a two-touchdown defeat in a nationally-televised Friday night game in Louisville in Week 2. Since that setback, the Dukes have gone 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS. They own one of the best defenses in the nation that few talk about and we'll call for them to ultimately pull away in this contest. Take James Madison (10*).

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 6:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this 'revenge' spot sets up for Washington State. Oregon State took the first meeting between these 'last teams standing' in the Pac-12 back on November 1st, prevailing in an ugly 10-7 contest in Corvallis. The scene shifts to Pullman for Saturday's rematch and I look for the Cougars to roll. Washington State has faced the more difficult schedule this season and has posted the better overall record. With a win on Saturday, the Cougars would gain Bowl eligibility. They enter playing some of their best football having won back-to-back games ATS. Note that Washington State's longest ATS winning streak this season lasted four games so this is a team that has earned the trust of its backers. Oregon State comes off back-to-back SU and ATS losses including an ugly defeat against a weak Tulsa team on November 15th. The bye week came at an awful team as the Beavers are simply playing out the string at this point. Take Washington State (10*).

My selection is on Southern Miss minus the points over Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Southern Miss appeared to be on track for a double-digit win season before getting derailed by consecutive losses against Texas State and South Alabama. I look for the Golden Eagles to bounce back on Saturday as they host Troy in their home finale. The Trojans righted the ship with a 31-19 win and cover at home against Georgia State on Senior Night last week. Now the shoe is on the other foot, however, as they travel to face Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have inexplicably dropped the cash in three straight games following a 5-2-1 ATS start to the season. They've had a miserable time trying to contain opposing ground games but they catch a break here as the Trojans are one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, gaining 100+ yards on the ground in just four of 11 games this season. Take Southern Miss (8*).

My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Kennesaw State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While I understand the logic behind Kennesaw State being installed as a road favorite in this game, after all it does have seven wins compared to Liberty's four, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points. The Owls avoided a second straight loss with a 41-34 win on Senior Night last week against Missouri State. That snapped their two-game ATS slide so it's not as if they've been playing their best football of the season down the stretch. Liberty enters this contest on the heels of three straight losses, both SU and ATS. The Flames are obviously just playing for pride at this point but at home, on Senior Night, I do look for them to rise to the occasion and end their season on a positive note. This will be a 'revenge' game for Liberty after it dropped a 27-24 decision on the road against Kennesaw State last year. Take Liberty (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over South Alabama at 3 pm et on Saturday.

South Alabama emptied the proverbial tank in last week's 42-35 win over Southern Miss on Senior Night - its sixth straight victory over the Golden Eagles. The Jaguars haven't had the same success against Texas State, most recently dropping a 45-38 decision at home in last year's matchup. We'll back the Bobcats here as they look to become Bowl eligible and that would be a big victory given the way the team struggled during a five-game slide earlier in the season. Texas State enters this game on a roll, having won back-to-back games but it did fail to cover the lofty -20 pointspread in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe. We're working with a more reasonable number this time around. Take Texas State (10*).

My selection is on Arkansas State plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Appalachian State has already been relegated to a 'spoiler' role down the stretch - a role it played well last week as it went on the road and 'upset' Marshall. That only served to snap the Mountaineers four-game losing streak, however. They won't be going Bowling this season as they own just four wins with just this contest remaining on their schedule. Arkansas State needs one more win to gain Bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves are coming off an 0-2 homestand that included an 'upset' loss against Louisiana-Lafayette on Senior Night last week. While I don't like to make a habit of fading teams playing their home finale - especially ones that have 'nothing to lose', I like the setup for Arkansas State as an underdog here. Take Arkansas State (8*).

My selection is on Clemson plus the points over South Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Clemson surely hasn't forgotten South Carolina beating it in its own backyard last November. The Tigers enter this game on a roll, winners of three straight games to salvage what had the potential to be a disastrous season. Their only loss so far in November came in a wild 46-45 affair on the road against a surging Duke team. South Carolina's season was derailed weeks ago with the exclamation point coming in a ridiculous game at Texas A&M in which they blew a 30-3 lead. The Gamecocks were able to breathe a sigh of relief last Saturday as they rolled to a 51-7 win against an overmatched Coastal Carolina team. Still, South Carolina is going nowhere with just four victories on the season. The SEC bias is strong with the Gamecocks favored at all in this game. Take Clemson (8*).

My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Arizona at 9 pm et on Friday.

I don't think there's much at all separating these two in-state rivals, as evidenced by the narrow pointspread favoring Arizona (at the time of writing). I'll make a case for backing the Sun Devils, noting that they've faced the tougher schedule by most metrics this season and return home where they've gone 5-1 SU this season. Arizona is already in uncharted territory as it is riding a season-high four-game winning streak. Arizona State has won three games in a row - a feat it accomplished once before this season. On that occasion, it failed to register a fourth straight victory but it was in a difficult situation travelling to face Utah as a near-double-digit underdog. Arizona is just an even 2-2 on the road this season but those two victories have come in its last two road dates at Colorado and Cincinnati. We'll simply call for the Wildcats to suffer a letdown of sorts as they come off Saturday's 41-17 rout of Baylor in what was their regular season home finale. Take Arizona State (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over Utah State at 4 pm et on Friday.

This season hasn't gone exactly as planned for Boise State but it did manage to snap a two-game slide with a resounding 49-21 win over Colorado State on Saturday and I'm confident it can build on that performance as it wraps up the regular season at Utah State on Friday. The Broncos offense took out weeks of frustration on the Rams last time out. They'll face another beatable defense in the Aggies on Friday. Utah State has played some of its best football lately, reeling off three straight ATS victories. In fact, the Aggies are 9-2 ATS this season - one of the best bets in the country. I still don't like their defense and think they've benefited from a rather light schedule, padding their defensive numbers against pop-gun offenses in UTEP, FCS squad McNeese State, Nevada and most recently Fresno State. This is a team that also gave up 30 points against Air Force, 44 points against Hawaii and 33 points against New Mexico. While the Aggies do figure to inflict some damage offensively in this game, I expect them to be playing catch-up most of the day and never be able to run down the Broncos. Take Boise State (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Friday.

The Utes remain in the mix for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game as they travel to Lawrence to take on the Jayhawks in Friday's regular season finale. Utah has looked like a team on a mission since its 24-21 loss at rival BYU on October 18th. Since that game, the Utes have produced 53, 45, 55 and 51 points in reeling off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS over that stretch. The lone ATS defeat came on Saturday as it narrowly avoided the 'upset' at home against Kansas State. After allowing 47 points in that game, I expect the Utes defense to enter this contest in a particularly foul mood. Kansas has never been able to regain the form that saw it open the season with four wins in its first six games, dropping four of its last five contests entering Friday's home finale. Running into the well-oiled machine that is the Utes offense spells trouble as the Jayhawks have played matador-like defense down the stretch, allowing 38 points or more points in three of their last five games. The Utes have yet to drop the cash in consecutive games this season, winning by 34 points at West Virginia and 46 points at home against Colorado in their last two games following an ATS loss, and we'll call for them to avoid that fate again on Friday. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on Stanford plus the points over California at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with California in its stunning 'upset' win at Louisville two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Golden Bears as they travel to The Farm to face Stanford on Saturday. Prior to the win at Louisville, Cal had lost three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS. It's not as if this is a team that has enjoyed an extended period of success. It did get off to a strong start this season but that had everything to do with a very manageable early schedule. Stanford is 3-7 on the season but has also faced a considerably more difficult schedule than Cal by most metrics. The Cardinal enter this game off three straight losses but did cover the spread in their most recent game two weeks ago at North Carolina. This isn't a team that has quit on the season and ahead of a very difficult home finale against Notre Dame next week, we'll call for the Cardinal to snap their losing streak on Saturday. Take Stanford (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Colorado State is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday as it heads to Boise to face a Broncos team that is sure to be in a foul mood following back-to-back losses both SU and ATS against Fresno State and San Diego State. The visiting Rams have parlayed a fairly manageable schedule into an ugly 2-8 record this season and enter this contest riding a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS). This is a team that could muster only 17 points (and ran for just 13 yards) despite affording itself four takeaways last Saturday at New Mexico. The schedule certainly doesn't get any easier here. Boise State had started the season 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS before its current two-game slide. It does have ample runway to finish the regular season strong with this game followed by a road tilt with Utah State next week. We'll lay the points here. Take Boise State (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with South Carolina against the spread last week as it jumped ahead with a huge lead at halftime before crumbling in the second half in a wild 31-30 loss at Texas A&M. That was a back-breaking defeat for the Gamecocks as it ensured their Bowl ineligibility with only three wins and just two games remaining in the regular season. I think South Carolina is going to have an extremely difficult time getting up for this late season non-conference affair ahead of next week's home finale against Clemson. It certainly appears that the Gamecocks are out of gas at this point. Coastal Carolina on the other hand will be up for this game off a disappointing 'upset' loss on the road against Georgia Southern last week. I don't think the Chanticleers simply want to keep things competitive in this game - as they may have felt about this contest looking ahead at the start of the season - but rather they probably believe they can put the Gamecocks on 'upset alert'. Coastal Carolina is 6-4 on the campaign so it will be going Bowling. It wraps up the regular season with a showdown against nationally-ranked James Madison next week. Even if the Chanticleers do want to keep something in the tank for that contest, I still think they can stay inside the lofty pointspread here. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with Kent State in its 'upset' win at Akron last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Golden Flashes as they host Central Michigan on Wednesday. Kent State is 3-6 on the season and won't be going Bowling as there are only two games remaining. The Golden Flashes, while owning an inferior record to that of the Chippewas, have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Chips have already gained Bowl eligibility after winning for the third time in their last four games (4-0 ATS) last week against Buffalo. I think they'll have their hands full with a Golden Flashes team playing their home finale, and also noting that Central Michigan has a big game on deck against Toledo to wrap up the regular season next week. Take Kent State (8*).

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is in Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with Northern Illinois in its rout of hapless Massachusetts last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Huskies as they return home to host Western Michigan on Tuesday. The Broncos are 6-4 on the season and have faced a slightly more difficult schedule than the 3-7 Huskies. Western Michigan comes off a win over Ohio in its home finale last week but I don't think we'll see a letdown here as it has its sights set on a spot in the MAC Championship Game with one contest remaining on its regular season slate next week at Eastern Michigan. Northern Illinois is simply playing out the string at this point and will look ahead to its home finale on Black Friday against Kent State - a winnable game to be sure. Take Western Michigan (10*).

My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The knee-jerk reaction here is to back the Bulldogs laying a short number off their massive 'upset' win at Boise State last time out (two weeks ago). While Fresno State was doing that, Wyoming was dropping a 24-7 decision at San Diego State. While the Bulldogs do own the better overall record in this matchup, the Cowboys have navigated the tougher schedule by most metrics. Fresno State has actually been a losing bet on the season despite is 6-3 SU record, going 4-5 ATS. That includes a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five contests. Wyoming needs to win two of its final three games to gain Bowl eligibility while Fresno State just got there with the win over Boise State. Take Wyoming (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses last week with Boise State dropping a 30-7 decision at home against Fresno State and San Diego State getting blasted 38-6 at Hawaii. While the Aztecs own the better overall record in this matchup, the Broncos have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Boise State already has three losses this season so its margin for error is slim from this point forward. Note that the Broncos three previous defeats were almost a direct result of a boatload of turnovers. That's not necessarily the norm for this offense, however, and Boise State's defense has proven capable of producing takeaways when needed as well. This is always a spirited matchup and one where I feel grabbing the points is rarely a bad idea, regardless of the circumstances surround the two teams at any given point in time. Take Boise State (10*).

TV Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas plus the points over Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game playing well with Texas having won four straight games and Georgia riding a five-game winning streak. While the Bulldogs had to travel to face Mississippi State in an eventual 41-21 win last week, Texas was idle. The last time we saw the Longhorns they held off Vanderbilt 34-31 two weeks ago, in a game that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. Bettors have been quick to write off Texas after a sleepy start to the season and a 2-6-1 ATS mark. I think now is the time to back the Longhorns as they're simply catching too many points in this SEC showdown they'll undoubtedly get up for in Athens. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Texas State plus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State's late rally fell just short last week as the Bobcats fell to 0-5 in conference play this season with the defeat. Meanwhile, Southern Miss won 27-21 at Arkansas State on the strength of a whopping six takeaways. USM is a perfect 5-0 against Sun Belt foes and has the inside track to a West Division title. Believe it or not, Texas State, despite its struggles this season, can still gain Bowl eligibility by winning out the rest of the way and that's not insurmountable if they can win here as their final two regular season games will be played at home. We'll grab the points with the Bobcats as they catch the Golden Eagles in a letdown spot. Take Texas State (8*).

My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Gamecocks haven't had the season they were hoping for but they still have plenty to play for and can begin by playing spoiler on the road against undefeated Texas A&M on Saturday. South Carolina has lost four straight games going 1-3 ATS over that stretch including a 30-14 loss at Ole Miss last Saturday. We'll fade the Aggies here as they return home following a win-and-cover at a short-handed Missouri team last week. That marked Texas A&M's ninth straight victory and second win in a row ATS. Of note, South Carolina has faced a slightly more difficult schedule than Texas A&M this season. This will be the Aggies last real test before travelling to Austin to take on Texas in the last week of the regular season (they'll host FCS squad Samford next week). Take South Carolina (8*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Wisconsin at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Wisconsin is coming off a big 'upset' win at home against Washington last week to snap its six-game slide. The Badgers are still likely going nowhere this season, unless they win out over a tough three-game stretch to end the regular season, and I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday. Indiana jumped ahead early but needed a late rally to hold off a game Penn State squad in Happy Valley last Saturday. I think that close call will serve as a wake-up call for the Hoosiers, who have national title aspirations under Curt Cignetti this season. Keep in mind, prior to that narrow victory, the Hoosiers had won their last two games by 50 and 45-point margins. They'll rebound in their regular season home finale on Saturday. Take Indiana (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Minnesota at 9 pm et on Friday.

Minnesota hasn't travelled well this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home. A big reason for that is the Golden Gophers inability to keep their offense on the field as they continue to struggle to sustain drives and keep their defense fresh. That creates a nightmare matchup against Oregon on Friday. The Ducks high-powered offense was held in check by a good Iowa defense in adverse weather conditions last Saturday. Still, Oregon prevailed by an 18-16 score but dropped the cash for the second straight contest. The Ducks are 5-4 ATS on the season and have yet to lose three straight games ATS, a fate they'll look to avoid on Friday. Minnesota on the other hand, will also be trying to avoid a third straight ATS defeat having already done so earlier in the campaign (it actually went winless ATS over a four-game span from September 13th to October 11th). After consecutive sleepy performances offensively, we'll call for the Ducks to get rolling on Friday night in Eugene. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Massachusetts at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

The road back to respectability begins on Wednesday for Northern Illinois as it draws a favorable three-game stretch to close out the regular season. The Huskies have little to play for but pride at this point. A difficult schedule has limited them to just two victories after making such positive strides last year. I do see this as a 'get right' spot off last week's 42-3 drubbing at Toledo. UMass has yet to win a game this season and there's a real chance the Minutemen won't taste victory at all this year. Things have gone from bad to worse lately as UMass has been lit up for 82 points over its last two games. The Minutemen were competitive the last time we saw them on this field against Buffalo on October 18th but the Bulls were in a flat spot. I don't think the Huskies will come out flat on Wednesday as they lay waste to an overmatched Minutemen squad. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams are coming off much different results last week. Toledo crushed Northern Illinois 42-3 at home while Miami-Ohio fell by a 24-20 score at Ohio. We'll call for a reversal of fortunes on Wednesday. Toledo is 5-4 on the season while Miami-Ohio is 4-4. Not all records are created equal, however, noting that the Redhawks have faced the far more difficult schedule by most metrics. Miami-Ohio still needs two victories to gain Bowl eligibility, with only three games remaining. With a tough test at Buffalo on deck next week, this is a critical spot for the home side. Take Miami-Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Akron at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State coughed up a late lead in a 17-13 loss at Ball State last week. The Golden Flashes won't be a popular bet on Tuesday but we'll back them as we fade Akron coming off back-to-back wins for the first time this season and also looking to deliver a third straight ATS victory for the first time this season. Not only are the Zips being asked to win, but to win by margin. I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams. Akron is desperate to gain Bowl eligibility and it will need to win out over its final two games to do so. That's being factored into the line, however. Take Kent State (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on California plus the points over Louisville at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Louisville is probably feeling pretty good about itself having reeled off three straight wins including a double-digit victory on the road against Virginia Tech last Saturday. With a date against Clemson on tap on Friday, I think this is a bit of a difficult spot to get up for against reeling California. The Golden Bears have lost back-to-back games SU and four in a row ATS. We know they're capable of hanging tough on the road, however, as they beat Boston College and took Virginia Tech to double-overtime in their last two road tilts. Last week, the Bears were right there in a difficult game against a good Virginia team before a pick-six sealed their fate late in the fourth quarter in a 31-21 loss. I think we'll see Cal finally get its running game going again in this matchup and effectively shorten proceedings and keep this one within the lofty pointspread. Take California (10*).

My selection is on Air Force plus the points over San Jose State at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are desperate to keep their Bowl hopes alive and neither has met a close game it doesn't like this season. With that being said, we'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Air Force on Saturday. The Falcons check in off a tough 20-17 loss at home against Army last Saturday. Meanwhile, San Jose State outlasted Hawaii in a 45-38 shootout. Scoring hasn't been a problem for the Spartans but keeping opposing offenses at bay has been. Teams that have elected to run on San Jose State have found plenty of success doing so and that should be the gameplan for Air Force on Saturday as well. Look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Air Force (8*).

My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State entered this season with fairly high expectations, thought to be a key player in the Sun Belt Conference race. It hasn't played our that way at all though as the Bobcats enter this game riding a four-game SU and six-game ATS losing streak. I do think they're set up well to defeat the Ragin' Cajuns, however. Louisiana-Lafayette has endured a disappointing season in its own right but did pull off an 'upset' victory on the road against South Alabama last week. We'll lay the points with visiting Texas State noting that it has had three extra days to prepare for this critical matchup having not played since October 28th. Take Texas State (8*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Missouri plus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While Texas A&M is firmly planted in the College Football Playoff conversation and still undefeated on the season, Missouri's bandwagon has been effectively cleared as it checks in off two losses in its last three games (following a 5-0 start). We'll grab the points with the Tigers in this spot, however, as both teams enter off their bye week on what I feel is a fairly level playing field with this game being played at Mizzou. The Tigers have been right there in their two losses, going 1-1 ATS in a three-point loss at home against Alabama and a seven-point setback at Vanderbilt. Texas A&M has faced a difficult schedule on paper but the likes of Florida and LSU haven't been as tough as expected and even Notre Dame - who it staged a big 'upset' against in South Bend early in the season - has two losses. We'll grab all the points we can get with a revenge-minded Tigers squad after suffering a 41-10 rout in College Station in last year's meeting. Take Missouri (10*).

My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

TCU comes off its bye week and with a difficult schedule ahead, it would be easy for the Horned Frogs to chalk this up as a likely victory before ever kicking off on Saturday afternoon. Iowa State is reeling off four straight losses both SU and ATS. All is not lost, however, as the Cyclones started 5-0 so they just need one more win to gain Bowl eligibility and their remaining schedule is manageable. I think this line will prove too high as the Cyclones look to bounce back off an unthinkable three straight 'upset' losses against a TCU team feeling good about itself off back-to-back victories. Take Iowa State (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Easy choice here as we missed with the 'over' in Bowling Green's no-show at home against Buffalo last week. In fact, the Falcons have seen each of their last three games stay 'under' the total. I think that streak is in jeopardy on Saturday as they hit the road to face Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are off a low-scoring 'under' result of their own last week. They're also just one game removed from a contest that saw 74 points scored against Miami-Ohio. Look for both teams to open up the passing game on Saturday as this one sails 'over' the total. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Colorado plus the points over West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll fade West Virginia as it returns home off last Saturday's massive 'upset' win on the road against Houston. That marked the Mountaineers second straight ATS victory but only served to snap their five-game losing streak SU. Colorado will look to bounce back from consecutive blowout defeats at the hands of Utah and Arizona. The Buffaloes have certainly struggled at times this season but their two-game ATS slide marks their longest of the campaign. In a similar vein, the Mountaineers two-game ATS winning streak is their longest of the season. I think the oddsmakers have a difficult time handling matchups like this with it being the two teams' first ever Big 12 matchup. I see this game going down to the wire at the very least. Take Colorado (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Memphis at 9 pm et on Friday.

Tulane has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season and while it enters off a 48-26 drubbing in front of a national audience at UTSA last week, it is still 6-2 and has everything to play for entering Friday's showdown with Memphis. Last year, the Tigers rolled into New Orleans and dismantled what was a tremendous Green Wave squad. I think revenge will be in order on Friday. Memphis comes off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS including last week's beatdown of Rice in a nationally-televised weeknight game. I still think the Tigers defense can be exposed and certainly give the Green Wave the edge in that department, especially off last week's embarrassing showing. We'll grab the points in this showdown, noting that the Green Wave can take solace in the fact that their schedule will finally ease up after this game, leaving this spot as a key opportunity to get rolling down the stretch. Take Tulane (10*).

My selection is on South Florida minus the points over UTSA at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This is a fairly obvious letdown spot for UTSA as it continues its home dominance in conference play with a 48-26 'upset' win over Tulane last week. The Roadrunners have yet to string together consecutive ATS victories this season, however, and I look for them to have a tough time hanging with South Florida for 60 minutes on Thursday. The Bulls come off a bye week and that came on the heels of an 'upset' loss on the road against Memphis. South Florida remains 6-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS on the season despite having faced a fairly difficult schedule. Look for the Bulls to prove to be too much on both sides of the football on Thursday night. Take South Florida (8*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Ball State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. 

Kent State has exceeded expectations this season, going 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS and while it needs an incredibly strong finish the rest of the way to gain Bowl eligibility, I expect it to at least give itself a puncher's chance with an 'upset' win at Ball State on Wednesday. Save for a drubbing on the road against the class of the MAC in Toledo, the Golden Flashes have been competitive in conference play, taking Buffalo down to the wire, blasting UMass and most recently 'upsetting' Bowling Green. Ball State has managed to go 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS. I just don't think the Cardinals have a lot of upside on either side of the football. Unlike Kent State, which has gone 3-1 ATS over its last four games, Ball State checks in 1-2 ATS over its last three contests. The Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 at home this season so the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors will probably be to lay the short number in this one. I'll go the other way and back the Golden Flashes as they're more than capable of surprising in this spot. Take Kent State (10*).

My selection is on Ohio moneyline over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

This price has been dropping as the 'revenge angle' seems to be playing a big factor for a lot of bettors with Ohio having defeated Miami-Ohio in blowout fashion in last year's MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats have been dominant at home not only this season but for a number of years and they'll be looking to bring an end to the Redhawks four-game winning streak on Tuesday. Miami-Ohio is a good team to be sure, but not incredibly difficult to gameplan against. Stop dual-threat QB Dequan Finn - or at least force him to throw the football - and you'll have a good shot at winning the game. Note that both of these teams have had an extra week to prepare for this game coming off their respective bye weeks. With a one-game advantage atop the MAC, Miami-Ohio has a little more margin for error in this big matchup. Look for the Bobcats to once again hold serve at home. Take Ohio moneyline (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and N.C. State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Georgia Tech's win over Syracuse last week - its eighth straight victory to open the campaign. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week as the Yellow Jackets are in a tricky situation on the road against N.C. State. The Wolfpack return home following consecutive road losses, both SU and ATS. The focus has to be on tightening things up defensively ahead of this matchup. After all, N.C. State was lit up for a whopping 89 points over its last two contests. We know what we're going to get from the Yellow Jackets defense. They seem to be getting stronger with each passing week. Look for this total to prove too high. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This will be the first of two meetings between the only two current members of the Pac-12 here in 2025. I get the feeling this could be one of the uglier games on the board this week. Washington State rolls into this game on the heels of a 28-7 'upset' win at home against Toledo last week. The Cougars are riding a 4-0 ATS streak with all four of those games staying 'under' the total. Of note, the 28 points the Cougars scored last week marked their second highest point total this season. In a similar vein, Oregon State scored a season-high 45 points in last week's victory - its first win of the campaign. Let's not get too excited though as that victory came against an FCS opponent, Lafayette (as a 21-point favorite). I do think we'll see the Beavers try to make this one as ugly as possible in an effort to steal an 'upset' win. When Oregon State has tried to go score-for-score with the opposition this season, it hasn't ended well so I don't anticipate it taking that type of approach here. Take the under (8*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Virginia and California at 3:45 pm et on Saturday.

Virginia's offense has been bogged down over the last couple of weeks, most recently escaping with a narrow 17-16 road win over a better-than-advertised North Carolina defense. Here, I look for the Cavaliers to finally get loose again as they head on the road to face California. The Golden Bears gave up 42 points in a loss at Virginia Tech last time out. While Cal's defense has proven vulnerable, we know that it can score with a pass-first attack that is likely to be pressed in this particular matchup. I think we'll see both teams play with a sense of urgency as this contest has track meet potential. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on UNLV minus the points over New Mexico at 3 pm et on Saturday.

UNLV was off to a 6-0 start to the season before it ran into Boise State on the blue turf two weeks ago. Off their bye week, we'll back the Runnin' Rebels as they return home to host New Mexico on Saturday. The Lobos posted their second straight win last week as they rolled to a 33-14 home win over Utah State. They did cover the spread in that contest but that only served to end their three-game ATS slide. New Mexico's strength on offense is running the football but the Rebels should be well prepared for that sort of attack after facing Air Force and aforementioned Boise State in their last two games. UNLV has done a good job for the most part of forcing opposing offenses to be one-dimensional and I think it can do the same in this contest. Take UNLV (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Bowling Green at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out. In fact, Bowling Green has seen its last two contests stay 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls were inexplicably held in check offensively at home against lowly Akron last Saturday. Keep in mind, prior to that they had won back-to-back games, scoring 59 points combined in those two contests. Bowling Green returns home in desperate need of a spark after scoring a grand total of 27 points in losses against Central Michigan and Kent State. Buffalo's defense doesn't travel particularly well and it's worth noting that its last two road tilts have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (8*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Rice at 7 pm et on Friday.

It's going to be difficult for either of these teams to install too many new wrinkles in the offensive gameplan as they both play on a short week on Friday. Memphis bounced back from a stunning 'upset' loss against UAB by delivering a come-from-behind win against upstart South Florida on Saturday. The Tigers scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then couldn't reach the end zone again until the final minute of the first half. After that they were held to a single field goal until scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Two weeks ago in the loss to UAB, Memphis didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half and then not another until the game's final three minutes - when they were down 31-17. Rice survived a wild double-overtime game against Connecticut on Saturday. That game totalled just 48 points in regulation time before 23 points were scored in overtime. Of note, two of Rice's regulation time touchdowns in that game came by way of UConn defensive breakdowns (a 73-yard rush and a 75-yard catch). After falling behind 21-17 at halftime, the Owls held the Huskies out of the end zone for the entire second half. Note that last year's meeting between the Owls and Tigers totalled just 47 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Stanford at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We faded the Hurricanes in their 'upset' loss at home against Louisville last Friday night. I expect a much different story to unfold as Miami stays at home to host Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal stunned Florida State last week, winning as a +18 underdog. That doesn't change the fact that it's been a tough season for Stanford so far. Note that following its two previous wins this season it lost by 28 points at Virginia and 24 points at SMU in its next game. I expect Miami to put up points on both sides of the football on Saturday en route to a blowout victory. Take Miami (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Illinois and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Washington is coming off a string of 'over' results - four straight to be exact. I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday as the Huskies host Illinois. The Illini are coming off an 'under' result of their own in a lopsided defeat against Ohio State two weeks ago. Their offense had been rolling prior to that difficult matchup and I'm confident they can get back on track on that side of the football in on Saturday. Washington was held to just seven points at the Big House last Saturday. A return home figures to help the Huskies cause, as will a matchup with one of the country's weaker defensive teams statistically in Illinois. Look for a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between these conference foes on Saturday. Take the over (10*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Michigan minus the points over UMass at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Central Michigan can breathe a sigh of relief after posting a 27-6 win at Bowling Green last week, successfully bouncing back from an ugly 'upset' loss at Akron the game previous. The Chippewas are 4-3 SU and ATS on the season and have everything in front of them with a very manageable remaining schedule. UMass is one of the nation's weakest teams but does come off an ATS win in a hard-fought 28-21 loss at Buffalo last week. The Minutemen are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS on the campaign. They had scored just 22 points over a four-game stretch prior to putting up 21 points against the Bulls last week. Don't count on a repeat performance against a tough Chips defense that has allowed 14 points or less in four of seven contests this season. Take Central Michigan (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo has secured consecutive wins on the strength of its offense, scoring 59 points in posting back-to-back 'over' results. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Akron put up 28 points in a high-scoring losing effort at Ball State last time out. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the Zips this season. Remember, they opened the season with consecutive shutout losses and they've had two other games where they've been held to seven points or less. Buffalo has scored 17 points or less in three of its seven contests so far this season. I think we're in for a rather sleepy affair in western New York on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Syracuse and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Georgia Tech's 27-18 road win against Duke last Saturday. We'll go the other way and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Yellow Jackets return home to host the down-trodden Orange of Syracuse. While Georgia Tech checks in a perfect 7-0 on the campaign, Syracuse has stumbled to a 3-4 mark including three straight defeats entering Saturday's contest. In those three games, the Orange scored a grand total of 34 points. Keep in mind, in the game prior to that stretch they put up 34 points in an 'upset' win at Clemson. We know the Yellow Jackets can score at will, even if they struggled a bit in last week's road tilt. I think this ACC clash has track meet potential. Take the over (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Boise State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Boise State opened the season with a stunning (at the time) 'upset' loss on the road against South Florida. Since then, the Broncos have gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS including a dominant 56-31 win over a good UNLV squad at home on Saturday. We'll call for Boise State's extended ATS winning streak to come to an end on Friday, however, as I feel it is laying too many points on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack are a woeful 1-6 on the campaign but have shown some life lately, going 2-1 ATS over their last three games including a narrow 24-22 loss as a near-two touchdown underdog at New Mexico on Saturday. They're not going to be going bowling this season, at least it doesn't look that way given their upcoming schedule, so this amounts to one of their biggest games remaining on the schedule. Keep in mind, Nevada will also be heading into its bye week so it is likely to 'leave it all on the field' in this matchup. We'll grab the points in a game that I think will be closer than expected. Take Nevada (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This is one of the higher totals we've seen in this rivalry matchup in recent years and it likely has a lot to do with both teams entering off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Utah has scored at will against the teams it should score at will against this season. It was also held to just 10 points in its only loss, that coming against Texas Tech back on September 20th. BYU is a perfect 6-0 on the campaign. It has scored 38 and 33 points in its last two games, but those performances came at the expense of West Virginia and Arizona. It draws a much tougher defense here with Utah having held five of six opponents to 14 points or less this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Texas at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Texas is coming off a massive victory in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma last week. I think it will be in tough on Saturday, however, as it heads on the road to face Kentucky under the lights in Lexington. The Wildcats are a disappointing 2-3 on the season and check in off back-to-back blowout losses on the SEC road against South Carolina and Georgia. Keep in mind, we've only seen Texas play two true road games this season and it lost both of them. While the Longhorns are in line for a victory as a double-digit favorite here, I don't think they'll win this game by margin. Take Kentucky (8*).

My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a really difficult spot for Indiana as it not only looks to remain undefeated on the season but tries to follow up last week's 'upset' win on the road against Oregon. While the Hoosiers should be able to keep their flawless record intact, I question whether they can win by such a large margin. Michigan State got flat-out embarrassed in last week's 38-13 rout at home against UCLA. The Spartans have now lost three straight games but they're actually 2-1 ATS over that stretch with the two ATS covers coming in road games against USC and Nebraska. I like Michigan State's chances of moving the chains often enough to shorten proceedings and stay within the inflated number on Saturday. Take Michigan State (8*).

ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Duke at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Georgia Tech is 6-0 on the season but hasn't faced the toughest schedule. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a string of three straight high-scoring results, putting up 30+ points against Temple, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in succession. Keep in mind, Georgia Tech was held to 27 points at Colorado and 24 points at home against Clemson earlier in the campaign. This is a tough test on the road against Duke, which rides in off three straight wins. Like Georgia Tech, Duke has been lighting it up offensively, scoring 45, 38 and 45 points over its last three games. Those three contests came against N.C. State, Syracuse and California, however, so not exactly a difficult three-game slate. The Blue Devils do come off their bye week but it's unlikely they're going to install too many wrinkles in the offense that the Yellow Jackets won't be ready for in this familiar ACC showdown. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Louisville plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

Louisville has had nearly two weeks to stew over its first loss of the season, that coming in overtime at home against upstart Virginia on October 4th. I like the Cardinals chances of giving the undefeated Hurricanes a fight on Friday night in Miami. The Canes last played on October 4th as well, delivering a win-and-cover on the road against rival Florida State. I can't help but feel the Canes are entering 'overvalued' territory as they check in off five straight wins to open the campaign, including three in a row ATS entering Friday's contest. Louisville has gone 1-4 ATS but that's had a lot to do with inflated pointspreads. This marks the first time the Cardinals have been pegged as an underdog all season. Take Louisville (8*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Tulsa carries a favorable reputation after it 'upset' Oklahoma State on the road in a nationally-televised primetime affair on September 19th. The reality is, this is a team that continues to try to rebuild and checks in just 2-4 on the campaign with the other victory coming against FCS squad Abilene Christian way back in Week 1. Over the last two games, the Golden Hurricane have been outscored 76-21 in losses (both SU and ATS) to Tulane and Memphis. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought 26-19 road loss against Tulane last Thursday. The Pirates have yet to drop the cash in consecutive games this season, going 4-1-1 ATS. They have a lot more experience than the Golden Hurricane, and also boast superior talent in my opinion. Look for ECU to eventually pull away in this one. Take East Carolina (10*).

Conference-USA Game of the Week. My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over UTEP at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This line is a little perplexing to me. Only one game separates these two down-trodden teams with UTEP holding a slight edge at 1-5 on the campaign. That lone victory came against an FCS opponent in Tennessee Martin back in Week 2. The Miners enter this contest riding a four-game SU and three-game ATS losing streak. Sam Houston State has faced one of the most difficult schedules in the country so far this season and checks in 0-6 SU. It did manage to deliver its first ATS win of the campaign last week, dropping a narrow two-point decision against Jacksonville State. After this game, the Bearkats will go on the road for back-to-back contests so they could be looking at mid-November before they can realistically notch a win if they fail to do so on Wednesday. Look for them to take advantage of this rare winnable game. Take Sam Houston State (10*).

My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida International at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Western Kentucky has dominated this series recently including a 73-0 victory the last time the Hilltoppers and Panthers met here in Bowling Green. The Hilltoppers are off to a 5-1 SU and ATS start this season. Few are paying attention and that's par for the course in Conference-USA. FIU is a mess right now and called a 'player's only meeting' after its most recent loss. That sort of thing doesn't happen when things are going well. The Panthers don't have a quick fix at the quarterback position where starter Keyone Jenkins and backup Joe Pesansky have both struggled. There's help coming in the secondary with a couple of injured players set to return but I don't think it will be enough to keep FIU within arm's length on Tuesday. Take Western Kentucky (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and Boise State at 9:45 pm et on Saturday.

New Mexico is coming off back-to-back 'over' results and has surpassed expectations offensively, producing 28 points or more in four of five games so far this season. The Lobos will be hard-pressed to keep it going on Saturday, however, as they head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that is sure to be in a foul mood after tripping all over themselves in a 28-7 rout at Notre Dame last Saturday. That low-scoring result ended Boise State's own three-game 'over' streak and I look for a continuation of the sudden 'under' trend here. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Boise State offense this season as it has produced 47+ points on three occasions but only seven points twice. I don't think the Broncos will need to put up a ton of points to secure a win in this particular matchup and look for a fairly reserved gameplan after turning the football over four times in last week's defeat. Take the under (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Troy at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Troy has to be feeling pretty good about itself after delivering consecutive 'upset' wins over Buffalo and South Alabama. I think we'll see the Trojans run into a roadblock on Saturday, however, as they travel to face Texas State. The Bobcats lost outright as near two-touchdown favorites at Arkansas State last Saturday. That marked their third straight ATS defeat. I certainly feel they're a better team than they've shown lately and see this as a terrific 'get right' spot against a Troy squad they handled easily 38-17, on the road no less, last year. Take Texas State (10*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and Wyoming at 7 pm et on Saturday.

This line says a lot as down-trodden Wyoming is projected to be a 'tough out' for San Jose State on Saturday in Laramie. The Spartans have reeled off back-to-back ATS victories and check in following three straight 'over' results. I don't believe that's a sustainable totals streak as they've taken advantage of some very bad defensive teams to score 31, 29 and 35 points over their last three contests. Wyoming is coming off three straight losses both SU and ATS, allowing 30+ points in all three games. Keep in mind, they've run up against Utah, Colorado and UNLV. While San Jose State doesn't offer much of a reprieve, the Spartans strength of schedule thus far is weaker than that of the Cowboys and they've still only managed to win two of five games. Wyoming has only surpassed 20 points once in five games this season and that came against an FCS opponent on Northern Iowa in a game that still totalled only 38 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed the mark going against the grain and backing the 'under' in Cincinnati's 38-30 home win over Iowa State last week - its fourth straight victory. That game saw a ton of scoring in the first half before things settled down in the final 30 minutes. I don't think the Bearcats will need to produce such an offensive onslaught to keep their winning streak intact on Saturday. Of note, Cincinnati rides a four-game 'over' streak into this contest and I think that's inflating this total. Central Florida has done very little offensively this season outside of a 68-point explosion against FCS squad North Carolina A&T over a month ago. The Knights will be desperate to bring an end to their two-game slide on Saturday, however, and I think they'll do all they can to avoid a track meet against a more talented Bearcats offense. Note that UCF is battle-tested after playing at Kansas State and at home against Kansas over the last two weeks. We've yet to see the Knights get truly lit up defensively this season as they've given up only 87 points through five games. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on SMU minus the points over Stanford at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Perhaps no team has been a bigger disappointment from a betting perspective than SMU this season as the Mustangs check in 3-2 SU but 0-5 ATS. Saturday's opponent, Stanford, hasn't been much better, going 1-4 ATS. The Cardinal have been idle since securing a 30-29 win over San Jose State back on September 27th. That victory came at home. They've been far worse on the road, going 0-3 SU and ATS including a 48-20 loss at Virginia in their most recent road contest. Of note, Stanford has been held to a feeble 37 rush yards or less in three of five games this season. If it is unable to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday, it's likely to be in for a long day as SMU has had little trouble scoring points at home, producing 42, 45 and 31 points in three games. With back-to-back road games against Clemson and Wake Forest on deck followed by a home date against one of the best teams in the country in Miami, this is a critical 'get right' spot for the Mustangs. Take SMU (8*).

My selection is on Miami-Ohio minus the points over Akron at 12 noon et on Saturday. 

We won fading Akron two weeks ago as it was smashed by Toledo 45-3. Last week, the Zips rebounded with an 'upset' win at home against Central Michigan. We'll go right back to fading them this week as they host Miami-Ohio, which is off to an uneven 1-3 start to the campaign. The Redhawks are generally in the conversation as one of the MAC's best teams on a yearly basis and while it looks like they're off to a slow start given their record, the fact that they're 1-0 in MAC play is really all that matters as their three defeats came against Wisconsin, Rutgers and UNLV. Credit Akron for hanging tough for the most part lately, going 3-1 ATS in its last four games but I don't think continued pointspread success is in the cards for this down-trodden program. Take Miami-Ohio (8*).

My selection is on South Florida minus the points over North Texas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This game might just come down to which team can get a stop and with that being said, my money's on South Florida. The Bulls got schooled on the road against Miami - who we now know is one of the best teams in the country - back on September 13th but has gotten right back on track since with blowout wins over FCS squad South Carolina State and most recently Charlotte in their AAC opener last week. North Texas checks in sporting a flawless 4-0 record and comes off its bye week. However, the Mean Green Eagles have faced a rather light schedule. Their most notable victory came against an Army squad that is spinning its wheels in a down year. I'm not convinced UNT will be able to move the football at will against USF the way it has against its previous opponents this season. Nor do I think the Mean Green Eagles can stop the Bulls multi-pronged offensive attack. Take South Florida.

C-USA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Liberty and UTEP at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

This midweek C-USA matchup pits two of the worst offenses in the nation as Liberty and UTEP try to earn their first conference victory of the campaign. Liberty has employed a revolving door at the quarterback position and it hasn't worked out to its advantage. The Flames scored 52 points in their first two games of the season against FCS squad Maine and Jacksonville State but have produced a grand total of 33 points since then. While the schedule hasn't done them any favors with their last two games coming against James Madison and Old Dominion, I'm not sure it matters who they face at this point, their offense is limited. One thing we know is the Flames will go with a run-first approach having completed only 26 passes over their last three contests. UTEP has elected to bomb away a little bit but that's had more to do with trailing by big margins on a weekly basis than anything else. Last time out, the Miners lost 30-11 to Louisiana Tech but that final score was a little misleading as the Bulldogs rank two interceptions back for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Two games back, UTEP scored a touchdown halfway through the first quarter against Louisiana-Monroe but then didn't find the end zone again until the score was out of reach, 31-10, nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. Against Louisiana Tech the Miners didn't reach the end zone until there were less than four minutes left in the game, trailing 24-3. Take the under.

My selection is on Florida State plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Florida State comes into this one after a gut-wrenching overtime loss at Virginia last Friday night, but that defeat doesn’t diminish what the Seminoles are capable of this season. With everything still in front of them in the ACC race, I expect FSU to deliver a sharp response in a primetime rivalry spot. Motivation won’t be an issue with undefeated Miami coming to town, and last week’s sloppy showing should only add fuel to the fire.

Miami has certainly impressed in its 4-0 start, but it’s worth noting that its lone ATS blemish came in a non-conference tilt against an FCS opponent. More importantly, this will be the Hurricanes’ first true road test of the season. A hostile environment in Tallahassee isn’t exactly the ideal place to break in those road legs, especially with this being their only away game until mid-October.

I like Florida State’s ability to tighten things up defensively and put Miami under pressure in a way it hasn’t felt yet this season. At the very least, I expect the Seminoles to keep this one within striking distance for four quarters, if not spring the outright upset.

Take Florida State plus the points.

My selection is on Old Dominion minus the points over Coastal Carolina at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Old Dominion comes into this matchup looking to extend its current winning streak to four straight games. The Monarchs have been consistent on both sides of the ball and are coming off a strong stretch where they’ve shown the ability to dominate opponents and control games from start to finish. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, is riding the high of a surprising 38-20 road victory over South Alabama as a 15.5-point underdog, snapping an 0-3 ATS start to the season. However, that win now seems more like an outlier than a true turning point.

The Chanticleers’ bye week likely disrupted whatever momentum they had built, and the timing isn’t ideal as they travel to face a disciplined and motivated Old Dominion squad. This is a crucial game for ODU as it looks to keep its winning ways intact before heading into a challenging two-game road stretch at Marshall and James Madison. Given the disparity in preparation, consistency, and overall talent, look for Old Dominion to control this game from the opening kickoff and potentially turn it into a lopsided affair.

Take Old Dominion minus the points.

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Virginia enters this game on an emotional high after last Friday’s overtime ‘upset’ of Florida State, marking its third straight SU and ATS victory. While that streak is impressive, it also sets up a classic letdown spot. The Cavaliers are riding a wave of adrenaline and emotion, and sustaining that for another tough road game in Louisville is a tall order.

Louisville, on the other hand, has been rock-solid this season with a 4-0 SU record. While they’ve struggled ATS (1-3), last week’s 34-27 win at Pittsburgh showed they can perform in tight, high-pressure situations. This ACC clash represents a chance for the Cardinals to avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence and take control against a team coming off a huge emotional win.

Defensively and offensively, Louisville has the balance to exploit Virginia’s vulnerabilities, particularly if the Cavaliers are slow out of the gate. The number is reasonable, and I expect the Cardinals to cover it while remaining in command throughout the game.

Take Louisville minus the points over Virginia.

My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Boise State enters this matchup riding a 3-0 o/u mark following a season-opening loss (and 'under' result) at South Florida. While the Broncos have shown offensive firepower recently, scoring 49 and 47 points against Air Force and Appalachian State, those performances came against opponents that are not of the same ilk as Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has posted four straight 'over' results and scored 112 combined points over its last two games. However, both defenses are coming off arguably their best performances of the season and have something to build on heading into Saturday. I expect them to rise to the occasion in this matchup, limiting big plays and slowing the pace.

This won’t be a full-blown defensive slugfest, but the total is inflated based on recent scoring, and I expect a more methodical, controlled affair.

Take the 'under' between Boise State and Notre Dame.

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Maryland at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Washington is coming off a disappointing 24-6 home loss to Ohio State that snapped their undefeated 3-0 start and ended a two-game ATS winning streak. That kind of defeat is often the perfect motivator for a team to rebound strongly, and the Huskies have the personnel and talent to respond in kind.

Maryland, meanwhile, is coming off a big ‘upset’ win at Wisconsin and also enjoyed a bye week. While that can provide rest, it also introduces the risk of a slow start, especially against a motivated opponent. Outside of the Wisconsin victory, Maryland’s wins have come against Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and FCS Towson State, and they’ve gone just 1-2 ATS in those games.

I expect Washington to come out focused, maintain control of the game, and cover the spread.

Take Washington minus the points over Maryland.