Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 269 h 55 m | Show |
This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs. San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points. The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under! |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 143 h 19 m | Show |
The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high. We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5. These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 50 | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
The Buccaneers were involved in a shootout with the Texans back in Week 9. The final score was 39-37 as the game turned wild in the 4th quarter with 31 points. That was the only time all season that Tampa allowed more than 27 points. On the season, the Bucs allowed just 19.1 points, tied for 6th best. They have also really turned it up in recent weeks. They held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards in the Wildcard Rd and they allowed less than 12 points a game over the final 3 games of reg. season. In the final game, they pitched a shutout. Tampa coach Todd Bowles said this of his defense: "We've gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks. Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. ... Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody's trusting each other next to them and they're playing for each other." The Lions defense held the Rams to 6 second half points last week. They also held the Bucs to 6 points, a 20-6 win, during the regular season. Tampa had only 13 first downs and 251 total yards. That total was only 44. This one is a lot higher. Too high. Go with the Under. |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 44 | Top | 10-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The Texans have looked pretty good but they are now on the road and facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. No team allowed fewer points than the 16.5 ppg allowed by the Baltimore Ravens. The Texans held the Browns to 14 points and 324 yards. They weren't dominant defensively like the Ravens but ranked in the top half of all defenses for points and yards allowed. In addition to allowing the fewest number of points, the Ravens led the league in rushing. They will keep the clock ticking and the Houston offense on the sidelines. Points will not come easily in this game. Go with the Under. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 43 | Top | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Eagles offense stumbled down the stretch. The Eagles scored 10 points last game and that marked the 4th time in 6 games that they failed to reach the 20 point mark. The injury to Brown, their top receiver, is a big blow to the offense. The Bucs got here by playing defense. They allow only 19.1 points a game while scoring just 20.5. Both quarterbacks are playing at less than 100%. The Eagles won 25-11 when the teams met in the regular season. That was when Philadelphia was scoring with ease. The Eagles won't get that many this evening and the Bucs are likely to also have trouble scoring. The line is generous. Go with the Under. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 43.5 | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs transformed themselves into a defensive team this year. The offense wasn't as potent and the defense picked up the slack. The Dolphins were explosive most of the season but their offense slowed down the stretch. Those are the biggest reasons why we're now working with a total in the low/mid 40s, as compared to a total of 51.5 when these teams faced each other back in November. That's a big drop. Too big! It'll be cold but this is still Patrick Mahomes vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes still has Kelce to throw to and Tagovailoa's top target, Tyreek Hill will be playing his first game back at Arrowhead. These are some of the best offensive players on the planet and they won't be stopped by the cold. The Dolphins are getting healthier on offense but their defense is severely depleted. They've given up 77 points in their last 2 games alone. Their games average more than 52 points. This one will finish over the low total! ***WILDCARD TOY*** |
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01-07-24 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Both these teams got a lot better as the season progressed. The Bears started terribly but have currently won back-to-back games and have victories in 4 of their last 5. The Packers entered November with a 2-5 record but now find themselves at 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny. A big part of the reason for the improvement comes on the defensive side. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points four times. They have 16 takeaways during that time. In fact, the Bears defense now leads the NFL in interceptions. The Packers just held the Vikings to 10 points to close out 2023. Minnesota managed just 211 yards. The last meeting at Lambeau finished with 37 points. With both offenses missing some important players, the final score will again stay below the total! ***NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH*** |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
Still angry about last week's controversy, the Lions say they want to win. The Vikings technically still have hope. Realistically, however, this game likely doesn't mean much. The Vikings won't be going to the playoffs and the Lions will be locked into the #3 seed. Nick Mullens is back at QB and he threw 4 picks last time these teams met. He will miss throwing to Hockensen. The reliable tight-end had 4 receptions for 58 yards in the first meeting. For all the bluster, I'm projecting a lower scoring game. Detroit is off a 20-19 loss. Minnesota managed only 10 points last week and has scored just 71 total points over the last 5 games, an average of 14. Vikings are 5-3 to the under on the road. This one will also stay under! ***EARLY RISER*** |
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01-06-24 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 85 h 35 m | Show |
First game went over but these teams are not the same ones that faced each other at beginning of the season. Both offenses are missing a lot of important weapons. First game had a total of 40.5 This one is much higher. That gives us a lot more room to maneuver. The Texans defense has come to life. Last week, Houston allowed only 3 points. They gave up just 11 first downs and 187 total yards. Last road game, the Texans allowed only 16 points. The Colts last 3 games have all finished with 43 points or less. They are going to want to run the ball. The Texans are strong at stopping the run. This will add up to a low-scoring defensive battle. ***AFC TOM*** |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee OVER 35 | Top | 0-35 | Push | 0 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
This is obviously a very low total. Too low! Playing at a very fast pace, the Volunteers average 31.5 points and their games average 53.5. They scored 48 last game and allowed 38 and 36 in their previous 2 games. The Volunteers had a game back in mid-October which finished with 33 points. Other than that, every other one of their games produced at least 43 points. The Vols QB (Milton) opted-out but his replacement (Iamaleava) is a bigtime player who will assume the starting role next season. Offensively, they're still in good shape. However, the Tennessee secondary did take a lot of hits and is depleted. The time off will allow Iowa's offense time to prepare. Again, Tennessee's defense isn't 100%. The Hawkeyes have scored 21, 17, 49 and 27 their past 4 bowl games. Even if they get 14-17 here, which they will, the Volunteers will be able to do the rest. ***BOWL TOM*** |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 33-10 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Detroit has clinched the division but these teams are both still alive in the Wildcard hunt. The winner of this game will have a reasonable chance. The loser will pretty much have no hope. I'm not going to speculate on who wins. Instead, I'm going with the over. The Packers are 5-0 to the over their last 5 games. Each of those games had at least 46 points. The last one had 63. The Vikings are 2-0 to the over their last 2 games. Both finished with more than 50. This season's first meeting was low-scoring. That also happened last year. The second game was much higher-scoring, finishing with 58 points last New Year's Day. This number is too low. Go with the Over. ***NFC North TOM*** |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 35 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
It's a low number. Not low enough. These are two of the best defenses in football. Neither offense is consistent. The Jets offense is especially anemic. They managed to score 30 in each of their last 2 home games but they scored 0 last time that they were on the road. They average just 12 points per road game. Cleveland home games are lower-scoring than Clev. road games. The Browns allow only 13.1 points per game here, scoring just 20.5. The Browns have allowed less than 300 yards in five of their past six games. The Browns rank 1st against the pass (160.1 yards per game), 1st in total defense (260.3 yards per game), 1st in yards per play (4.46 yards) and 1st in interception rate (3.46 percent). With Flacco and Semian projected to be behind center, this game goes under. ***TNF TOM*** |
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12-27-23 | Louisville v. USC UNDER 58.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
USC games mostly went over the total this season. Their final 2 games did go under though and this isn't the same team that was flying over at the start of the season. Nearly 20 Trojam players have opted out, including Caleb Williams. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner, they'll have a QB (Miller Moss) making his first start. That's obviously a pretty big deal. The Cardinals can really play defense. They allow 307.4 yards per game, 16th in the country, entering the bowl season. They give up only 19.7 points a game. Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks) is an elite defensive end who will give the inexperienced USC pivot problems. The Cardinals are without some of their own top offensive players. Running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 15 touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (63 catches, 858 yards) both opted out out to focus on the NFL draft. The Cardinals scored only 6 points last game. This is a chance for the USC defense to prove its better than the stats suggest. Go with the Under! ***BOWL TOY*** |
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12-25-23 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 43 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 50 points. Both teams allow more than 24 points a game. These teams play again in New York in 2 weeks. That game might be low-scoring but this one won't be. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over at home. Their only game which didn't go over the total here still finished with 48 points. Their other 5 home games had scores of 62, 65, 51, 71 and 61. The Giants have played 2 divisional games since the start of November and both finished with 50 or more points. Go with the Over! ***NFC EAST TOM*** |
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12-24-23 | Patriots v. Broncos OVER 35 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Given the Patriots' offensive woes, it would be pretty easy to make a case for the under. New England ranks last in the league in points per game. That's been factored into the total though. This is the lowest O|U line on the board. Its lower than yesterday's game. Its lower than any today and its lower than any tomorrow. Next Thursday's game between the Jets and Browns has opened with a similarly low number. That's 2 great defenses though. The Patriots don't fall into that category. The Broncos certainly don't. Denver just allowed 42 points last game. The Broncos allow more than 25 points per game, the Patriots allow more than 21. Five of Denver's last 6 games have finished with at least 39. This is number is too low! ***SNF TOY*** |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 38 | Top | 11-34 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
This season's first game had a final score of 16-10. Saturday's game will also be low-scoring. This is a late December divisional game. Both banged-up offense is led by a backup quarterback. Browning has impressed but he will be without Ja'Marr Chase. Over their last 5 games, the Steelers have scored 10, 16, 10, 18 and 13 points. The defense struggled last week but had previously held 8 of 9 opponents to 21 or less. Both defenses are dealing with some injuries but both will come to play. Rudolph's last start finished with 32 points, a 16-16 tie. This game will have a lot of running plays and that's going to keep the score down. Go with the under. ***AFC NORTH TOY*** |
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12-19-23 | UTSA v. Marshall OVER 51 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Total has come down and that's providing us with value. Marshall games average more than 51 points. UTSA games average more than 56! UTSA has scored 34 or more in 7 of the last 8 games, going over 40 in 4 of those. Marshall combined with for 56 points last game and is only a month removed from a 71 point game with Georgia Southern. Last 3 Frisco Bowls have had 92, 62 and 67 points. This game goes over! ***TOTAL OF WEEK*** |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 51 points. Seattle games average 46. The Eagles offense is very difficult to stop but their defense has allowed 33, 42 and 34 points their last 3 games. Similarly, Seattle has allowed 28, 41 and 31 points its last 3. Both defenses saw some important players miss practice this week. The Eagles are healthy on offense. The Seahawks hope to have Geno Smith back to lead their offense. The extra day's rest helps his chances. Smith or Lock, the Seahawks know they are going to need a lot of points. This one goes over! ***NFC TOW*** |
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12-17-23 | Jets v. Dolphins UNDER 37.5 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 60 m | Show |
The Jets offense has had its moments but has mostly been inconsistent. Before going overboard about their 30 point effort against Houston, remember that they scored 8, 13, 6, 12, 6 and 13 points their previous 6 games. The Miami offense is dangerous but NY has the defense to slow them. The Jets rank in the top 5 in the NFL for yards allowed. The Dolphins defense is better than the general public realizes. The Dolphins allowed 2 touchdowns in the final 3 minutes last game but they had only given up 14 for the first 57 minutes of that game. Before that, they gave up 15, 13 (to the Jets) and 13 in 3 previous games. They are a top 10 defense for yards allowed. Last season, the game at NY finished with 57 points but the rematch in Miami was far lower-scoring, finishing with only 17 points. This season the game at NY finished with 47. Once again, the rematch wiull be far lower-scoring. Go with the Under! ***AFC East TOY*** |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions UNDER 48 | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
The Lions scored only 13 points against Chicago last week. Now they take on a Denver defense which just allowed 7 points. The Broncos have been stingy for the past couple of months. Before holding the Chargers to 7, they allowed 19, 17, 9, 22, 20, 12 and 22 points. That's an average of 16 points allowed over their past 8 games. Although the defense has played well, the Broncos tend to have trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 24 or fewer points in every road game but one, averaging 20.7 points and only 191.3 yards of offense. 8 straight Denver games have finished with 46 or less. Go with the Under! ***Non-Conf TOM*** |
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12-14-23 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 33 | Top | 21-63 | Win | 100 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
I played on the Chargers in this season's earlier game. It had an O|U line of 49 points. This one is much, much lower. The biggest difference is that Herbert played in the first game and that he may not in this one. He's questionable at the time of this writing. Coach Staley said Monday: "There’s a lot of information that we’re gathering right now, but he's as tough as they come. We’re gonna make sure that whatever it is, we’re going to do what’s best for Justin long term." Remember that Herbert was only 13 of 24 for 167 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the first game. He did add 2 rushing TDs but still his performance wasn't one of his best. But its because of him, primarily, that the total has come down so much. That's giving us value on the over. Of course, Herbert's not the only factor. The Raiders scoring 0 points last week also works in our favor to bring the line down. The last 9 meetings have all finished with 41 or more. With or without Herbert, this number is too low! ***AFC West TOY*** |
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12-10-23 | Vikings v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 52 m | Show |
In my opinion, this number is too low. Both defenses are mediocre, both teams allow more than 20 points a game. The Vikings offense stalled last game but had previously been firing on all cylinders. The Raiders just had three straight games AFC teams, their most recent finishing with 48 points. The three games came against two playoff teams in KC and Miami and a really good defensive team in the New York Jets. Last time they faced an NFC opponent, the Vikings scored 30. Both offenses will have areas where they can enjoy success against these defenses. All 4 meetings over the years finished with at least 44 points. I've got this one penciled in for at least that many once again. ***NFC TOY*** |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
If not for all the low-scoring primetime games, we could be looking at a higher Sunday Night total. As it is, we've got a nice low number. KC scored 31 last game. The game finished with 48 points. The Chiefs have scored 31 or more in 2 of their last 3 against the Packers. Green Bay scored 29 last game. Packers coach Matt LaFleur played things more aggressively after expressing remorse for previously being too conservative with his play-calling. The game finished with 51 points. That makes 3 straight GB games that have finished with at least 42 points. This one finishes with more than that! ***Non-Conf TOW*** |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs OVER 36.5 | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
Games between these teams at Carolina have been lower-scoring but games in Tampa have been higher-scoring. Carolina's last five visits to Tampa have finished with scores of 41, 63, 48, 58 and 54 points. The last 4 of those all went over the total. Last season's game at Carolina had 24 points but the game at Tampa had 54. This season, Tanpa games average 39.9 points. Carolina games average 42.2 points. Getting rid of Frank Reich can only help the offense. The emphasis will be on improving scoring. The final score will finish above the low total! ***NFC South TOY*** |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 35 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 21 m | Show |
Michigan averages 37.6 points a game. That's more than this total is set at. It's entirely possible that the Wolverines exceed this total all by themselves. They're favored by more than 3 touchdowns. So, they're going to expected to score more than that. Remember they scored at least 30 in every game but one. Iowa is all about defense. That we know. But the Hawkeyes also know that they will need to score points, if they want to avoid total embarrassment. The last meeting had 41 points and the one before that had 45. The 45-point game (42-3 Michigan) was right here in the Big 10 Championship game. Last year's Big 10 title game had 65 points. This game goes over the low number! |
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12-02-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 46.5 | Top | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 123 h 60 m | Show |
Miami is here because of defense. The RedHawks permit only 16.3 points a game. Toledo is also stout on defense. The Rockets concede 20.4 points a game. The regular season game finished with 38 points. The RedHawks held the Rockets scoreless in the second half but couldn't erase a 21-3 halftime deficit. Toledo was in this game last year and beat Ohio 17-7. That game finished way below the total. Defense rules the day once again! ***MAC TOY** |
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11-27-23 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
Fields is back and the Bears offense is looking better. The defense continues to struggle. Chicago's last game saw 57 points scored. Vikings scored 27 last home game, a 46 point game against New Orleans. Minnesota home games average 44 but Bears' road games average 49.3. Bears last three visits here have had scores of 51, 48 and 60. This one goes over! **NFC North TOM** |
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11-26-23 | Panthers v. Titans OVER 37 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -107 | 126 h 43 m | Show |
Two non-conference teams. Neither is going to the playoffs. Why not throw caution to the wind? Neither defense is looking too good. The Titans gave up 34 points last week; the 6th straight time that they've allowed 20 or more. Carolina allowed 33 last game. That was the 4th time that the Panthers gave up 33 or more in their last 8 games. The Titans have scored 27 or more in 3 of their 4 home games. Their last game here finished with more than 50 points. It also came against an NFC South opponent. This one flies over the low total! ***NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR*** |
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
Neither defense is pitching many shutouts these days. Tennessee has allowed 20 or more points in 5 straight games. Jacksonville allowed 34 last game and has given up at least 20 in 4 of 5 games. The Titans only division game finished with 39 points but the Jaguars' three divisional games have finished with 52, 54 and 57 points. The Titans like to play conservatively at times but they will have to throw caution to the wind if they want to keep up with the Jaguars. Five of the last 7 meetings finished with more than 40 points and last year's 2 games averaged 47. This one goes OVER! ***AFC South TOY*** |
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11-18-23 | Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern UNDER 61 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
Lots of room to work with here. The Eagles have been involved in some recent high-scoring games, driving this week's total up. They will be up against a low-scoring team here. The Monarchs only scored 10 points last game. They average 24.4 points a game but that average comes down to 21.2 points per game on the road. Last year was the first meeting. The total was in the 60s but the score was 28-23. The Monarchs likely won't be as successful passing the ball in this game as they were in that one. The Eagles ran the ball 50 times. They will keep the clock moving again and the final score will stay below the big total! ***Sun Belt TOY*** |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Ravens offense can't be stopped. Baltimore has scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games. Bengals scored 27 last game and have gone over the 30 mark each of last 2 road games. The earlier meeting finished with 51 points. Bengals gave up 20 or more yards 17 different times last game. The Ravens had trouble stopping both the run and the pass. This will be another shootout! ***TNT TOM*** |
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11-14-23 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan OVER 39 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Lowest of today's 3 totals. Far too low! Akron games produce, on average, 43.4 points. Eastern Michigan games average 44! Last year's game had 62 points! The year before they had 56. Akron has only played 2 home games since October. They had scores of 69 and 58. Eastern Michigan's last 2 games had scores of 72 and 66. This one sails over! ***MAC TOW*** |
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11-12-23 | Jets v. Raiders OVER 36.5 | Top | 12-16 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
It may seem that stand-alone NFL games have been going under at a pretty good rate. Previous results from other games have nothing to do with this one though. In this case, the number is too low. The Jets defense is pretty good but they still allow 19.5 points per game. The Raider defense allows 21.4 points a game. Last time these teams met they scored 59 points. The total was 48.5. The Raiders scored 30 last game, their offense coming alive. They will build on that and the Jets will be better than they were last game. This game goes Over the low total! ***AFC TOW |
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11-12-23 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 38.5 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 104 h 18 m | Show |
An under streak by the Giants has allowed for a very low total. The Week 1 meeting had a total of 44.5. This one is below 40. That's too low, even with the sorry state of the Giants. Tommy DeVito may be just what the Giants need for a game to go over. He went 15-of-20 for 175 yards with a touchdown in relief. He may help the Giants offense but he could also turn the ball over and give Dallas easy points. The Cowboy's last game finished with 51 points. The Cowboys' previous game finished with 63 points. Seven of the Cowboys' 8 games have produced 40 or more points. The other had 37. The Cowboys might go over this total by themselves but they won't need to. *** NFC East TOY |
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11-11-23 | Connecticut v. James Madison OVER 48.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The Huskies don't play much defense. They gave up 51 points last game. The Dukes scored 42 last game. That was the 3rd time they've scored more than 40 since Sept. 23rd. It's unlikely but they have the capability to go over this total by themselves. They won't need to though because UConn will also score. Before scoring just 3 at Tennessee, they scored 33, 38, 21 and 14 in their previous four. The Huskies should contribute at least 14 again and the Dukes will more than take care of the rest. Go with the Over. ***2023 NCAAF TOY |
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11-07-23 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This total is simply too low. It's by far the lowest these teams have had against each other over the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals average 45.1 points in their game. The Huskies average 48. Ball State's last game finished with 45. NIU's last game finished at 68! Last year's game finished with 82 points. The 2021 game had 59 points. The 2020 game had 51. This one flies over the total! ****MAC TOW |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets OVER 39.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The Chargers can score points with the best of them but they often can't stop the other team from doing the same thing. Their games average 48.9 points. Nine of their 10 games in 2023 have finished above the 40 point mark. The other one nearly did, landing on 37. The Chargers and Jets last faced each other in November of 2020, Justin Herbert's rookie year. The total was set at 47. The game finished with 62 points! Herbert threw for 366 yards (277 in the first half!) and three touchdowns. Keenan Allen set a franchise-record 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Though this Jets defense is better than that one, Herbert will have success again tonight. This will be the Jets' third game against AFC West teams this season. The first two finished with 43 and 52 points, both going over. This one will do the same! ***MNF toy |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
When the Bengals and Bills played each other in the playoffs, the weather wasn't good. There was lots of snow and the temperature was below zero. Despite the conditions and despite playing without some pieces of their offense, the Bengals still put up big 27 points and more than 400 yards. The Bills couldn't get going until it was too late. No snow in tonight's rematch and both offenses will benefit. Bills are averaging more than 30 points their last 2 road games and 27.8 points a game on the season. Bengals started slowly on offense this season but have gone over the 30 mark in 2 of their last 3. Last nine games Bills were underdogs all went over. Scores of 78, 54, 60, 58, 62, 82, 60, 62 and 78! This will make 10 straight. ***AFC TOY |
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11-04-23 | Iowa v. Northwestern OVER 30 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
I get it. These are bad offenses. Plus, Iowa has a really good defense. Knowing that a lot of bettors will like the under at any line and that few will play the over in this game, the oddsmakers have had to post a really low total. Too low! Northwestern just combined with Maryland for 60 points. QB Sullivan, who has breathed life into the Wildcat offense, passed for 265 yards (2 touchdowns) and ran for another 56. Iowa scored 33 points in last year's game, nearly going over the total of 37 by itself. Final score was 33-13. The Hawkeyes just announced that their offensive coordinator (Brian Ferentz) won't be back next year. They're going to want to show that their offense is better than people think. A Wildcat team that gives up an average of 29.5 points per game over their last 6 will allow for that! Northwestern's last football at Wrigley Field? a 47-point affair against Purdue. Go with the Over! ***big ten toy |
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11-01-23 | Kent State v. Akron OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
You don't regularly get totals in the 30s for MAC Conference games. Not between these teams at least! When they faced each other last year, the O/U line was 62.5. The 2021 meeting had an O/U line of 72.5! The year before that, the total was "only" 60 and the Golden Flashes and Zips combined to score 104 points! Six of the past seven meetings, including each of the three I mentioned, have produced at least 38 points. This year, Kent State games average 45.5 points. Akron games average 44.8 points. Last night's MAC games both finished well above this number. The Buffalo/Toledo game had zero fourth quarter points, due to the blowout nature of the score, but the game still finished with 44. The other game (Central Michigan / Northern Illinois) finished with 68. This number is too low! ***mac TOM |
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10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers OVER 46 | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Recent Chargers games have slipped beneath the Vegas total. Otherwise, this total could be in the 50's. Tonight's game will be higher-scoring. These are not good defenses. Chargers allow 2nd most yards to opposing offenses, 406.8 per game. Chargers also allow 25.8 points a game. Bears allow 26.9. The Chicago offense has come to life. Bears have scored 28 or more in 3 of their last 4. Their last road game resulted in a 40-20 win. Over is now 6-1 in Chicago games. The Bears are going to keep scoring. The heavily favored Chargers are going to score even more. The end result? Another Chicago Over. ***Non-Conf. TOW |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers OVER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
Both teams have been involved in some low-scoring games, keeping and bringing the total down. This represents the lowest total for a Viking game all season. Both are still seeing their games average greater than 43 though. Jordan Love has gone through some growing pains of late but a game against a mediocre Viking defense will give him a chance to get right. He'll have to be effective to keep pace with Cousins. The Vikings just threw for 378 yards (452 overall) against SF! Minnesota's last 3 visits to Lambeau have produced 58, 47 and 50 points. We'll take advantage of the low number and go with the Over. *NFC North TOY |
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10-28-23 | Cincinnati v. Oklahoma State OVER 52.5 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
Cowboys are off a game where 82 points were scored. Their last 2 have both finished with more than 70 and their last 4 have all produced at least 50. Three of those went over the 60 mark. The Bearcat defense was strong at the start of the season but has now surrendered 30 or more points in back-to-back-to-back games and four of the past 5. Cincinnati offense put up 450 yards in last week's loss vs Baylor. They also accumulated 498 yards in their last road game, a 35-27 loss at BYU. The Cowboys will score a lot but the Bearcats won't go away. The end result? A game that goes over the total. *Big 12 TOY |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte OVER 43 | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Charlotte games have been low-scoring but this is a historically low total for a game between the Owls and 49'ers. Eight meetings between these teams. The O/U lines all fell in a range from 54.5 to 65.5. Six of the past seven finished with at least 43 points. Five of those finished with 47 or more. Last year, they combined for 56 points. On the subject of 56 points, FAU scored that many all by itself the last time it was on the road. FAU games are averaging more than 49 on the season. This one will get over the small number. *AAC TOW |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Thursday Night football from Lane Stadium is always a good time. So was last year's game Syracuse. It finished with 77 points even though the total was only 45. VT has scored 30 and 38 its last 2 home games. Defenses aren't playing as well as you might think. Hokies have given up 21 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Syracuse has permitted 40 or more in back-to-back games and has conceded 30 or more in 3 straight. This one's going over the total! *ACC TOY |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 52 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Both teams are consistently scoring. NMSU scored 34, 27 and 28 last three games. LA Tech has scored 24, 28 and 23 its last three games. At home, the Bulldogs are averaging 34.5 points but also giving up 28.3. Off their bye last year, the Bulldogs next game finished with 72 points. The O/U line for that game was 52.5. This one will also result in a shootout. Go with the Over. *CUSA TOW |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This total could easily be lower. The Arizona offense has come down to earth, a lack of talent becoming evident.The Cardinals have scored 16, 20 and 9 points in their last three games. Seattle managed only 13 last week. The last two Seahawk games have both finished with 30 or less. When Arizona played here last season, the score was 19-9. The year before, it was 23-13. The Cardinals will again have trouble scoring and that will lead to this final score staying below the total. *NFC West TOY |
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10-21-23 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 53.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Stanford fans won't soon forget last week's stunning comeback. That was against a porous Colorado defense. Now the Cardinal will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the country. Scoring will be extremely difficult, let alone coming back. Stanford only scored 13 against UCLA last year and may not even get that many in this one. The Bruins' defense is that good. Remember, in the game before Colorado, the Cardinal scored only 6 points. Off their previous loss, the Bruins' next game stayed below the total by double-digits. This one will also stay under! *Pac 12 TOY |
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10-20-23 | SMU v. Temple OVER 54 | Top | 55-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
The Mustangs are going to score early and often. They scored 69 in a game earlier. The Mustangs scored 31 and 34 their last two games. Now they get to go up against the Owls, who have allowed more than 40 points in four straight games. The Owls did score 34 in their last game here. Even if down, they won't just quit trying to score. The Mustangs' last five games against Temple saw them score: 59, 60, 45, 45 and 47! Those are just SMU scores, not combined. Every one of those games got to at least 65. All five went Over the total. This one also will. *AAC TOW |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
Saints have been an under cash machine this season. As a result, we've got a really low total for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. It's important to understand that Jaguar games average 44 points. The Jax offense has gotten better and better. They scored 31 in the opener but then dropped all the way to 9 in their next game. After that they went from 9 to 17 to 23 to 25 to 37. It's fair to say that they're clicking on all cylinders. The Saints didn't score many last game but they did have well over 400 yards of offense. Also, they scored 34 in their previous game. They'll be able to move the ball and score on TNF. The Jaguars have played here twice in the past. Both those games finished with 65 points. This one might not produce that number of points but it'll produce more than enough to get us over this low total. *Thursday Night Total Of The Year |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
A total in the 50's gives us a lot of room to stay under and that's the way I'm going this Monday. These teams are both known more for their offenses but there is also plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers kept the Raiders to 17 points last game but only scored 24. Off a bad loss to SF, Dallas will want to improve on defense. Off only previous loss, the Cowboys gave up just 3 points in their next game. These teams last meet in 2021. The total was 55 but they finished with 37. The previous three meetings before that one had scores of 34, 51 and 37. That's an average of 39.75 for the past four meetings. This one won't reach 50. *MNF TOM |
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10-15-23 | Giants v. Bills OVER 43.5 | Top | 9-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Low number. Much lower thanks to the Jones injury. Forget Jones for a minute, the Bills can score this many themselves. Don't believe me? Ask the Dolphins. The Bills put up 48 points against them. Before that, they scored 37 and 38 against the Commanders and Raiders. The Giants have allowed 24 or more in seven straight games, 30 or more in two of their last three. Heck, they're allowing an average of more than 30 per game. As mentioned, Daniel Jones is out. But is that really a bad thing? The Giants were 1-4 with Jones behind center. Tyrod Taylor is a capable veteran. Having started 43 games for the Bills, he'll have a chip on his shoulder when playing his former team. At the least, he'll help to light a spark. Buffalo will score big and the Giants will do "enough." This game goes Over! *NFL TOM |
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10-15-23 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 42.5 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Some might say that all signs point to an under. Baltimore is off 3 straight unders. Tennessee is, too. Games across the pond are often different though. If you haven't noticed, these games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the only stadium designed specially for NFL games outside of North America, a tendency to be quite high-scoring. Last week's game here produced 45 points. The opposite has been the case in the games at Wembley Stadium. The last four Wembley games have all finished with 38 or less. The six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all finished with 43 or more. Both offenses are filled with talent and capable of more than they've shown. This will be on display, the final score going Over. *AFC TOW |
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10-14-23 | Auburn v. LSU UNDER 60.5 | Top | 18-48 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 58 m | Show |
LSU has been money for the over all season. That comes to an end Saturday. With all the LSU games going over, the totals have been going up and up. Games between these SEC rivals rarely reach the 60 point mark though. The past seven Auburn versus LSU games have had the following scores: 38, 43, 59, 43, 43, 50 and 31. Only one of the past 10 meetings had a total which was as high as this one. Auburn gave up 27 against Georgia and 27 at Texas A&M. Before that Auburn permitted 14 or fewer points in each of its first three games. Holding Georgia to 27 points and 19 first downs was pretty good when considering that the Bulldogs scored 49 in the game before Auburn and 51 in the one after. If Auburn can slow down Georgia, it can slow down LSU. The games may have gone over, but LSU is still loaded on defense. Points won't come easily for Auburn. Count on another low-scoring "Tiger Fight." *SEC TOY |
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10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 49 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I've got this one finishing with more than 50. These teams haven't played since 2020. So, most of the faces are different. Mike Houston, ECU's coach, is still here though. He knows that type of these games these teams typically play against each other. The last one finished with 90 points. The one before had 110! Prior to that, games had 86, 72, 69 and 83. The rivalry gets renewed on ESPN this evening and we'll see more offensive fireworks. The Mustangs can really score. They put up 69 points in a game last month and they had 34 last game. Last year, their first under offensive minded coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs averaged more than 37 points and more than 473 yards. The Mustangs will look forward to facing the Pirates suspect pass defense. We know SMU will score tonight. ECU will, too. The Pirates have scored 28, 17 and 44 their last three games. Off their previous loss, the Pirates scored 44. They average 28.5 at home. With SMU projected to finish with 30+ and ECU projected to score 20+, the final score finishes above this low total. *AAC TOY |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
They may not have Aaron Rodgers behind center but the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Their early season defensive stats are a bit skewed by the fact that three of their first four opponents have been the Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills. All three of those teams are top 10 scoring offenses. The Broncos are better defensively than they've shown. They turned the corner defense in the second half of last week's game. It was their defense which keyed the comeback. Last year's game had 25 points. The year before had 26. This game also goes Under. *AFC TOM |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State OVER 53 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Wildcats crushed the Cowboys 48-0 last year. This K-State offense is again loaded and will again put up a huge number. They enter the game averaging 39.5 points on the strength of 482.5 yards of offense per game. The Cowboys aren't about to get blanked again. They never have since. They scored 27 (34-27 loss) at Iowa State last game, the third time in their past four games that they've scored more than 26 points. Wildcats may not get 48 but they should get close to their average. The Cowboys gave up 34 to the Cyclones (and 33 to South Alabama before that) and the Wildcats are far more potent. With the Cowboys chipping in another 20+, this final score finishes over the total. *Big 12 TOW |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders UNDER 44.5 | Top | 40-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Bears defense hasn't been good. Everyone knows that. The oddsmakers certainly do. Chicago's defensive struggles have rewarded us with an extra high total. Last year, these same teams played each other and the total was only 38.5. Remember how that game played out? It was a 12-7 final! Scoreless after the first quarter and 3-0 at halftime. Lots of kicking and poor red zone efficiency. Both teams ran the ball a lot. With both teams eager to clean up their defensive deficiencies, Thursday's game will take on a similar look and feel. Plenty of running will keep the clock ticking. When all is said and done, the final score will stay under the total. *NFC TOW |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty OVER 45.5 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
I played on the Bearkats to go Over last week's low total. One of the easier winners of my season. They had been really struggling to score and they were up against what had been an excellent Jacksonville State defense. The Sam Houston State offense came to life and made Jacksonville State's defense look decidedly ordinary. They finished with 435 yards of offense, 299 through the air and 28 points. Of course, they also gave up 35 points, after giving up 38 in their previous game. Now the Bearkats face Liberty which has scored 34, 33, 55 and 38. Averaging 40 points, the Flames rank #13 in the nation for scoring. Their 501 yards per game ranks in the top 10. They may easily go over this low number themselves. They won't need to though. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. Sam Houston State will score. With both teams doing so, this one finishes over the low total. *CUSA TOTAL OF THE MONTH |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Neither of these teams has run the ball as effectively, or as regularly, as they'd like to. It's early though and we've still had a limited sample size. Its hard to run the ball when getting blown out. These are still a pair of clubs who want to run the ball and this should be a more competitive game. Saquon Barkley sounds doubtfut but the Giants still want to pound the rock. These teams combined for 40 last October, the Seahawks winning 27-13 at home. A look at the boxscore shows that yards did not come easily. The Giants had only 14 first downs and 225 total yards of offense. Seattle had 19 first downs and 277 total yards. That game fell below the total and this line is even higher. Go with the Under. *Total of Week. |
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09-30-23 | San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 42.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The total is low for a reason. San Diego State is always tough defensively. Air Force has one of the most talented defenses in the country this year. That elite defense is typically on display when the Aztecs and Falcons get together. The last three meetings have gotten progressively lower-scoring with final scores of 21-17 in 2018, 20-14 in 2021 and 13-3 last year. The Aztecs had eight first downs and one rushing yard last year! (AF had 14 first downs and 14 passing yards.) Most of the same Falcon defenders are back from last year and the Aztecs will again have trouble moving the ball. Look for another defensive battle. *MWC TOY |
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09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 44 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month |
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09-24-23 | Falcons v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month |
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09-23-23 | California v. Washington OVER 57.5 | Top | 32-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week |
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09-16-23 | Iowa State v. Ohio OVER 42 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3. Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years. I foresee a similar final combined score here as well. Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here. This number is a little low, the play is the over. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt OVER 55.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes. The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me this week. I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under. |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB. Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week. Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week. The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week. Take Sunday's game to go under the total! |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Purdue v. LSU UNDER 54.5 | Top | 7-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense. Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8* |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 62 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season.
Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.
Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though.
As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency. Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10* |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse OVER 44 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.
This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim.
The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard.
On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas OVER 68.5 | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there. But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call. The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10* |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.
BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.
Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games.
The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks!
BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* |
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12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10* |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense. Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs. They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!) The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season. Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week. Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense. The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'. They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass. The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games. Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles. Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week. The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?” The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.
Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary.
Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.
USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season. The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5. Play the Under. 10* |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 62 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.
Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.
There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.
This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under. In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10* |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go. They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately. They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week. The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack. While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB. The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today. Take this game to go under. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team. A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time. Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense. The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier. They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures. The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage. I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* |
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11-15-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo UNDER 50.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns. Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants UNDER 41 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards. It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats. The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season. Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns. Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans. |
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11-09-22 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 56 | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.
Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight.
Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.
Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo. The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10* |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass.
These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet.
UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG.
UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8* |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams. The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year. But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them. Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. |
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11-01-22 | Ball State v. Kent State OVER 62 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot.
Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.
What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.
Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio. Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10* |
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10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them. Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10* |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields. Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date. It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 37 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven. The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB. The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos. The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games. Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed. The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer. It could be a tough game for him. The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower. Take the under on Sunday. 9*! |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon UNDER 72 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game. UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game. But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye. Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8* |
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10-22-22 | Ole Miss v. LSU UNDER 68 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games. Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities. LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8* |
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10-22-22 | Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation. The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here. In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8* |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5 | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State. ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight. Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game. The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating. The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week. The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday. |