Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-09-22 | Michael Johnson v. Jamie Mullarkey UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Michael Johnson/Jamie Mullarkey (9:10 ET): This fight is the opener on the main card, in the Lightweight Division (155 lbs) and scheduled for three rounds. I do not see it making it to the scorecards. Playing the Under, we need the fight to end prior to the midway point of round three. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if things didn’t even make it to the third round. Johnson comes in with a 20-13 career record, including 12-13 in the UFC. It’s very rare to find a fighter with that many fights under his belt, have losing record and they’re still in the promotion. That said, Johnson is in off a win (by second round knockout) over Alan Patrick back in May. That ended a four-fight losing streak, two of which saw him stopped. There were a lot of decisions early in his career, but 7 of Johnson’s last 11 trips inside the Octagon have NOT rendered the judge’s to make a decision. Then you have Mullarkey, who is 14-5 overall, but just 2-3 in the UFC. His last three fights have ended in the first or second round. There just aren’t many decisions (only 3) on his career resume. Mullarkey was stopped just 46 seconds into the second round in his last fight, by Jalin Turner back in March. He typically eats a LOT of punishment, which isn’t great going into a fight with a heavy hitter the likes of Johnson. Then again, Johnson tends to start allowing a lot of takedowns as the fight wears on, which isn’t good (for him) either. 8* Under Johnson/Mullarkey (2.5 rounds) |
|||||||
07-02-22 | Uriah Hall v. Andre Muniz OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Hall/Muniz (7:00 ET): This middleweight (185 lbs) is scheduled for three rounds and takes place on the early prelims, which you can watch (for free) on ESPN. Uriah Hall comes in with a 17-10 overall record and is 10-8 in the UFC. Andre Muniz has a much more impressive record at 22-4 overall and is 4-0 in the UFC. My best bet for tonight is on this fight making it past the halfway point of the second round. Hall has obviously been around for a while. But this will be his first fight in 11 months. We last saw him on July 31st of last year, losing a unanimous decision to Sean Strickland in what was a five-round affair (it was the main event of that show). That ended a four-fight win streak for Hall, which included some big names. Hall has not been stopped since a 2018 loss to Paulo Costa and the only time in his last six fights that things didn’t progress past the midway point of Round 2 was when Chris Weidman suffered that gruesome, freak leg injury. Muniz, despite the better record, is still below Hall in the MW rankings, so this is a big step up in class. Going back to his pre-UFC days, Muniz has won eight straight fights. Three of his four career losses were more than eight years ago. Now his L3 wins here in the UFC have all been first round stoppages, but as already touched on, this is going to be a tougher test. Muniz’s first UFC win was by decision. This one may not make it all the way to the scorecards, but it will go longer than expected. 10* Over Hall/Muniz |
|||||||
06-26-22 | Neil Magny v. Shavkat Rakhmonov OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov (11:50 ET): Second from the top (co-main) on this weekend’s UFC card is a welterweight (170 lbs) bout between veteran Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Magny has been around for awhile, coming into the UFC back in 2012 off “The Ultimate Fighter.” He’s 26-8 overall in his career, including 19-7 in the UFC. Rakhmonov is a rising prospect in the division with a 15-0 overall record after three straight wins to begin his UFC career. I’m betting that this fight goes longer than expected. Magny is actually tied (with Georges St. Pierre) for the most wins EVER as a UFC Welterweight. He brings in a two-fight win streak, having most recently defeated Max Griffin back in March via split decision. While Magny has won five of his last six fights overall, he hasn’t finished any opponent since Craig White back in May of 2018. Each of his last six fights have gone the distance, including a five-rounder. The only time he’s been stopped in the L5 years came in the fourth round. With an 80-inch reach, Magny can stay out of his opponents’ range and he’s got great striking defense. Rakhmonov also has a long reach (77”) and this is a step up in class for him compared to his previous competition. He’s a huge favorite though as none of his 15 professional fights have gone the distance and only one made it out of the second round. However, it is telling that Rakhmonov has never scored multiple takedowns in the same round. While this is mostly because his opponents don’t get up after being hit, Magny won’t be falling into that situation, at least not early on. It would not surprise me at all to see Rakhmonov be taken the distance here for the first time ever. I think it ends up as his longest fight regardless and will play accordingly. 7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Tim Means v. Kevin Holland UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Means/Holland (8:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division (170 lbs). It pits Kevin Holland, a heavy favorite, who is 22-7 overall and 9-4 in the UFC against journeyman Tim Means, whose record is 32-12-1 overall and 14-9 in the UFC. The fight takes place on the main card, third from the top. I do not expect it to go the distance. Certainly, the “safe” bet here would be to take Holland, however the current odds certainly make that difficult. That said, he’s probably going to win this fight inside the distance. Moving down a weight class (Holland is a former MW) seems like a smart career trajectory. Holland’s debut at 170 lbs saw him defeat Alex Oliveira via TKO, just 39 seconds into the second round. His career finish rate now sits at 82% with five of his last six wins coming via stoppage. A massive size edge here (Means is a former lightweight) is a significant advantage for Holland. The thing is, Means does come in on a three-fight win streak and is willing to engage in a wild brawl. That’s why I’m more apt to bet the Under here as opposed to Holland to win, or Holland to win inside the distance. Means’ three-fight win streak has all been by decisions, but prior to that he had four straight fights end via stoppage (three in the first round), win or lose. I just can’t see this fight going the distance, so betting Under 2.5 rounds is the play. To be clear, the fight must end by the midway point of the third round to cash. I think it will. 10* Under Means/Holland. |
|||||||
02-19-22 | Johnny Walker v. Jon Hill OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Walker/Hill (8:50 ET): For those less familiar with UFC betting, this is a wager on the # of rounds the fight will go and I’m taking the Over 1.5. That means the fight must make it past the halfway mark of the second round. This is the main event of the evening, pitting two Light Heavyweights, Johnny Walker (18-6 overall, 4-3 in the UFC) against Jamahal Hill (9-1, 3-1). I realize that Walker has a number of first round finishes in his career, but two of his last three fights have gone all the way to the scorecards. That includes his last one, a unanimous decision loss to Thiago Santos. That was a five-round fight, just like this one is. Walker was also beaten by unanimous decision back in March of 2020 by Nikita Krylov. He has a bit of a wild fighting style, but after sustaining two injuries over the last couple of years, you’ve got to wonder how much of the explosiveness is left. Hill did not spend much time in the cage during 2021 as both fights were over before the end of the first round. He suffered his only career loss in June of last year when he was TKO’d by Paul Craig. But then Hill came back and KO’d Jimmy Crute just 48 seconds into their fight in December. Those results are probably why this O/U is set so low, however something to note is that Hill had only two of his first eight fights end in the first round. With this being the main event, look for a bit of a “feeling out process” and this one to go longer than the oddsmakers are expecting. 10* Over Walker/Hill |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Micheal Gillmore v. Andre Petroski UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Gillmore/Petroski (10:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Both Micheal Gillmore and Andre Petroski are making their UFC debuts here. Gillmore brings in a 5-3 career mark while Petroski is 5-1. The latter is a massive favorite here and likely to end this one rather quickly. But rather than take a chance with those massive odds, I’ll bet the Under as we’re then covered in case Petroski were to get caught with a big shot. All we need is this fight to be over by the halfway point of the second round. All five of Petroski’s wins have come via stoppage, three of which were in the first round. But he is off a loss in October to Aaron Jeffery where he was stopped in the second round. Then came a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter” show. Fights from that show don’t count in the overall record, but it’s worth mentioning neither went past round two for Petroski. He submitted Aaron Phillips, but then was eliminated himself via submission at the hands of Bryan Battle. Based on Petroski’s resume, there’s just no reason to expect this fight to last very long. Gillmore was a castmate of Petroski on “The Ultimate Fighter.” He was actually an alternate for the show and his stay was a short one. He lost his first fight, getting stopped by Gilbert Urbina. Prior to that, there were lots of stoppages on Gillmore’s career resume, win or lose. Every loss in his career has come by submission. Four of his official eight fights have ended in the first round. I just can’t see this fight lasting long with Petroski very likely to assert control early and get the finish. 10* Under Gillmore/Petroski |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Darren Stewart v. Dustin Jacoby OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Stewart/Jacoby (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs). We’ve got Darren Stewart, who is 12-7 overall but has a losing record (5-6) in the UFC. Dustin Jacoby is 14-5-1 overall in his career with a 2-2-1 record in the UFC. My viewpoint is that this fight is very likely to go to the scorecards, so I’ll bet the Over 2.5 rounds. We just need this one to make it to the halfway point of round three to cash. Jacoby is actually in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go well as he lost both fights and was then let go. That was all the way back in 2012. He definitely seems like a better fighter now as he’s unbeaten in his last five fights, the last of which was a draw against Ion Cutelaba in May. Three of the previous four, all victories, went to the scorecards. Being the larger of the two fighters here, Jacoby may very well “scare off” a usually aggressive Stewart and that likely leads to a pretty methodical and quite frankly boring fight. Stewart hasn’t done much winning of late as he’s gotten his hand raised just once in his last five fights. That includes a no contest against Eryk Anders in March due to Anders landing an illegal knee. Stewart lost the rematch with Anders in June, but that was by decision. Even in the midst of a rough stretch, Stewart has proven difficult to beat. He hasn’t been stopped since 2017 and six of his last eight fights have gone to the scorecards. 8* Over Stewart/Jacoby |
|||||||
08-07-21 | Bobby Green v. Rafael Fiziev OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
8* Over Green/Fisiev (9:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It will be the final fight on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN 2. Bobby Green, a veteran, comes in with a 27-11-1 career mark. That includes a 8-6-1 record in the UFC. He has his work cut out for him Saturday night against the emerging Rafael Fisiev (9-1 overall, 3-1 UFC), who has put together an impressive three-fight win streak. But despite the lopsided odds, I wouldn’t completely count Green out. I think there’s a good chance this one makes it to the judges, so I’m going Over 2.5 rounds. Fiziev arrived in the UFC with an unbeaten record and plenty of hype. So it was a shocker when he was knocked out in less than 90 seconds by Magomed Mustafaev back in April of 2019, his first fight with the promotion. But since that time, Fiziev has put it together with three straight wins. Two were by decision. The most recent was a first round knockout of Renato Carniero in December of last year. The long layoff between fights is worth noting and I think we could see a slower than expected start from “Ataman.” Staying active has typically never been an issue for Green, who fought four times in 2020. He started the year 3-0, but then dropped a decision to Thiago Moises in October. All four fights went to the scorecards. It’s interesting that after being so active last year, Green has an even longer layoff than Fisiev. It could be that this is the only fight of 2021 for both fighters. Yes, they’ll be looking to make it count, but I also think they’ll be more cautious at the start. I think that Green’s wrestling ability will be able to keep the fight going. Look for this one to make it past the halfway point of round three - at least. 8* Over Green/Fisiev |
|||||||
07-31-21 | Zarrukh Adashev v. Ryan Benoit OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Adashev/Benoit (6:30 ET): This is a three-round fight between flyweights (125 lbs) Zarrukh Adashev (3-3 overall, 0-2 UFC) and Ryan Benoit (10-7, 3-5). As you can tell from those respective records, nether has done much and there isn’t a lot of potential to be seen. But they are fighting on the main card of a show on ESPN. Because of the fact that both fighters are absolutely desperate for a victory Saturday night, I’m expecting a relatively cautious pace. Definitely look for the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds as a decision is likely to be rendered. Adashev was signed by the UFC last year despite having only four professional bouts under his belt. His UFC career is not off to a rousing start as he was knocked out (in 32 seconds) by Tyson Nam last June and then dropped a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji in January. Adashev has a solid background in kickboxing, but there’s really not much else to tout here. The fact he did make it the distance last time does give me more confidence in the Over, however. Benoit also has some kickboxing on his resume, but he tends to be a methodical fighter and is tough to beat. I know that sounds odd in light of a losing UFC record, but each of the last three defeats for Benoit came via decision. In fact, four of his last five fights have gone to the cards. All five went to round three. It’s been over a year since Benoit dropped a decision to Tim Elliott in his last fight, so I hardly see him coming out and “swinging for the fences.” Again, don’t expect a finish here. 8* Over Adashev/Benoit |
|||||||
06-26-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Danilo Marques OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques (3:45 ET): This is a Light Heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1, 2-1 in UFC) and Danilo Marques (11-2, 2-0 in UFC). It is scheduled for three rounds. The O/U line is set at 1.5 rounds and I don’t think it’s going to have much difficulty going Over. Nzechukwu has fought only one time since 2019. That was a second round knockout of Carlos Ulberg back in March. His previous two UFC both went to the third round and his only other win was a decision. He did lose his UFC debut to Paul Craig via submission. Only one of Nzechukwu’s last six fights have gone to the cards, but I think this one has the potential to do so. Nzechukwu is going to want to keep this fight standing and look to win by striking. But the opponent is going to have a much different gameplan. Marques is on a four-fight win streak and 2-0 in the UFC. Before making his UFC debut in September of 2020, Marques had fought very sparingly. He did not fight in 2019 and fought just once in 2018. The UFC debut, last September, was a decision win over Khadis Ibragimov. He then won by rear-naked choke late in Round 2 over Mike Rodriguez. That’s still past the halfway mark of Round 2, which is all we need here. Marques is going to look to get this fight to the ground. A clash of styles will lengthen this fight. 10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques |
|||||||
06-19-21 | Roque Martinez v. Josh Parisian OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
6* Over Martinez/Parisian (5:05 ET): Here’s a fight in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division, scheduled for three rounds. It takes place on the prelims. While it’s a couple of “big boys,” I fully expect this one to make it past the O/U line of 1.5 rounds and possibly even go to a decision. Roque Martinez is 15-7-2 overall, but 0-2 in the UFC. Josh Parisian is 13-4 overall and 0-1 in the UFC. With both fighters still looking for that first taste of victory in the UFC, I expect a cautious approach. Take the Over. Now to be fair, most Parisian fights don’t last very long. He’s a bit of a knockout artist, always looking to end things with one big shot. That served him well on the regional scene where he picked up six consecutive finishes, five of them coming in the first round, prior to his UFC debut. But that debut did not go well as he lost an ugly decision to Parker Porter back in November. That was a fight many expected Parisian to win. He didn’t and now it’s back to the drawing board. The level of competition is obviously greater in the UFC than on the regional scene and Parisian is about to be reminded that it’s not always about flashy finishes. Martinez has struggled in the UFC, suffering one-sided losses to Alexander Romanov and Don’Tale Mayes over the last year. He was submitted by Romanov, late in the second round, but did go the distance against Mayes, showing some durability. After a rocky start to his professional career, Martinez has been beaten only four times since 2013 and only one of those came in the first round. I think this one easily makes it past the halfway mark of Round 2. Others obviously agree based on the Over getting juiced up. 6* Over Martinez/Parisian |
|||||||
06-12-21 | Jake Collier v. Felipe Colares OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Collier/Felipe (6:10 ET): The very first fight on tonight’s UFC card is likely to go to the scorecards, or at least past the midway mark of the third round. Scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division, we’ve got Jake Collier (12-5 overall, 4-4 UFC) taking on Carlos Felipe (10-1, 2-1). The latter is the favorite. Collier has alternated losses and wins through his first eight UFC fights, never winning or losing two in a row. The bad news for him here is that he’s off a win (last December) over Gian Villante. That was by decision, which is the way three of his last four fights have ended. The exception was 1st round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. That was his debut at heavyweight. Believe it or not, Collier started out as a Middleweight, so he’s moved up TWO weight classes to get here. The odds of him finishing someone like Felipe are very slim. Felipe lost his UFC debut last summer, but has since rebounded with B2B wins over Yorgan De Castro and Justin Tafa. All three UFC fights have gone to the scorecards. Felipe has a good chin, so that’s yet another reason to not expect him to be stopped tonight. At the same time, he doesn’t have much of a finishing game of his own. I think both fighters know their best path to victory is by impressing the judges. Expect this fight to go Over the total. 8* Over Collier/Felipe |
|||||||
06-05-21 | Augusto Sakai v. Jair Rozenstruik OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -198 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (9:35 ET): We’ve got a Heavyweight Main Event at Fight Night 189 with August Sakai (15-2 overall, 4-1 in UFC) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2, 5-2). Both fighters are in off a loss. Sakai fell in the Main Event of Fight Night 176 last September as he was TKO’d in the fifth round by Alistair Overeem. That marked the first time in Sakai’s entire career that he was stopped. Rozenstruik has lost two of his last three fights and was beaten Ciryl Gane (via decision) back in February. I took the Over (1.5 rounds) in that Overeem-Sakai fight, which obviously turned out to be an easy winner. It did end up being the first time Sakai was ever stopped, but said stoppage didn’t come until the “championship rounds,” well after the O/U line had passed. Just to clarify this one, it’s the same thing as we only need the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That seems pretty easy considering four of Sakai’s last five fights have made it to Round 3. So have 7 of his last 10. Rozenstruik actually owns a 5th round KO of Overeem back in 2019, but he’s lost two of three since. Unlike Sakai, most of Rozenstruik’s fights have ended rather quickly, but I think it’s notable his last one marked the first time EVER a decision had to be rendered. In my analysis of the Overeem-Sakai fight, I noted that unlike most heavyweights, Sakai doesn’t typically look to end things with “one punch.” He’s a patient and more technical striker than Rozenstruik, who will have the power edge and look to use leg kicks. But he’s not all that accurate and averages just seven strike attempts per minute. In a combined 131 minutes of UFC action, these two have combined for ONE takedown! So expect a SLOW start to this one and for the fight to easily surpass the O/U line. 7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (1.5 Rounds) |
|||||||
05-22-21 | Chris Barnett v. Ben Rothwell UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Barnett/Rothwell (6:40 ET): The chances of this fight going the distance seem rather slim and the most likely scenario - a Rothwell win - isn’t likely to take long at all. This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division between Ben Rothwell (38-13, 8-7 UFC) and Chris Barnett (21-6), the latter making his UFC debut. Rothwell hasn’t fought in a while (off a loss in October) and it was somewhat of an adventure getting him an opponent here. At the end of the night, he’ll likely be happy that he was matched with such an unproven commodity. Look for this fight to end Under 2.5 rounds. Rothwell’s best days are clearly behind him as he’s dropped four of his previous six fights. Three of those losses have come on the heels of his now infamous two-year USADA suspension. That ended in 2019 and he’s 2-3 since. All but one of those fights did go to decision, yet Rothwell still maintains an excellent 89% career finish rate. When he wins, as he’s done 38 times in his MMA career, it’s often by stoppage. Only four of those 38 wins have been by decision. He’s only been stopped six times, the last one coming in 2013. Barnett is so unproven and this is such a step up in class for someone who has spent their entire career competing on the regional circuit. So a Rothwell win inside the distance is the most likely outcome. But if Rothwell were to lose, it likely would be via quick knockout. Barnett is on a six-fight win streak, four of those by TKO/KO. This is going to be a slugfest; two huge heavyweights trading “bombs.” It can only last so long. Honestly, Barnett seems like a bit of a questionable signing for the UFC and probably doesn’t have the necessary skill to last long in the promotion. Either Rothwell ends it quickly, or it's simply the end of the line for him. 8* Under Barnett/Rothwell |
|||||||
05-16-21 | Michael Chandler v. Charles Oliveira UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Chander/Oliveira (11:59 ET): This is the main event of UFC 262 and it is for the vacant Lightweight Title (155lbs). The fight is scheduled for five rounds between Michael Chandler, who is 22-5 overall and 1-0 in the UFC, and Charles Oliveira, who is 30-8 overall and 18-8 in the UFC. It’s a fight that I don’t expect to go relatively long as I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. Chandler and Oliveira have a combined 52 wins in their respective careers. Only eight of those have been by decision. These are two finishers and I don’t expect this one to make it past the halfway point of round three. Oliveira actually owns the UFC record for most wins via submission. He comes into Saturday’s title fight having won his last eight bouts, seven of those being finishes. The exception was his last time out, a unanimous decision victory over Tony Ferguson in December where he completely dominated from start to finish. That was the first Oliveira fight to go three full rounds since 2014. There were 14 fights in between that didn’t go a full three and the vast majority of them (11) ended within the first two rounds, usually by submission. Chandler, the long-time Bellator Lightweight Champion, made a successful UFC debut in January when he TKO’d Dan Hooker in the first round. That was the fourth consecutive Chandler fight to end in Round 1. Six of his last eight and 7 of 10 have ended in the first five minutes. Only seven of his 27 career fights have gone to the scorecards and only one of those seven have come since 2016. The ratio for Oliviera is even more extreme with only four of 38 fights going to the cards. 8* Under Chandler/Oliviera |
|||||||
05-08-21 | Maurice Greene v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima (8:50 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Maurice Greene is 9-5 overall in his career, including 4-3 in the UFC. His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, is 17-7-1 overall and 6-5 in the UFC. Based on Rogeria de Lima’s track record, I do not expect this fight to go very long. I’ve got the Under 1.5 rounds. The vast majority of Rogerio de Lima’s 25 professional bouts have ended in the first round. The exact number is 16 and that includes the last two, a win over Ben Sosoli in February of last year and a loss to Alexander Romanov in November. Then you can throw in the fact that only one of Rogerio de Lima’s fights since 2014 has made it to the third round. The Under 1.5 rounds would have cashed in 14 of his last 16 fights. Rogerio de Lima is always going to come out looking to swing. Either he gets the early knockout, or gasses and gets knocked out himself. Greene has lost three of four with the most recent defeat coming at the hands former NFL player Greg Hardy back on Halloween night. That was an early second round stoppage (TKO), the fifth straight fight for Green that ended in a stoppage. He’s had just four decisions in his career and two of them came in his very first two professional fights. He has a submission game, so if this fight does get down on the mat, look out for that. But the bottom line here is that, no matter how this fight ends, it won’t take long. 10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Krzysztof Jotko v. Sean Strickland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 62 h 37 m | Show |
7* Over Jotko/Strickland (11:00 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Krzysztof Jotko is 22-4 overall, including 9-4 in the UFC. Strickland has a very similar record at 22-3 overall, including 9-3 in UFC. Strickland will prefer this fight to be standing where he will have the edge striking. But Jotko is going to want to look for takedowns and get things on the mat as he is the superior wrestler. I envision this one likely going to the scorecards. I’ll take the Over 2.5 rounds. Strickland comes in as the decided favorite in this one and for good reason. After recovering from a motorcycle accident that cost him two years of his career, he came back and delivered two of the best performances of his career: a decision victory over Jack Marshman back on Halloween night, followed by a second round TKO of Branden Allen three weeks later. It should be noted that Strickland has only been stopped once in his career. That was back in 2018. Since coming to the UFC, the majority of his fights have gone to decision. Jotko may discover it difficult to take down Strickland, who has 82% takedown defense. On a three fight wins streak, all by decision, Jotko will definitely still try to get this fight down on the mat. His best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of a slog and - while standing - keep Strickland in a clinch. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in doing that, but expect Jotko to survive nonetheless. Seven of Jotko’s last 10 fights have gone to the scorecards. This one makes it at least halfway through Round 3. 7* Over Jotko/Strickland |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Anthony Smith v. Jim Crute OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
04-17-21 | Andrei Arlovski v. Chase Sherman OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Arlovski/Sherman (11:15 ET): Andre Arlovski, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is about to step inside the Octagon for a 35th time. That’s the most ever for a heavyweight. He’s 19-14-1 for the promotion and 30-20 all-time. He will face Chase Sherman Saturday. Sherman is 15-6 in his MMA career, including 3-5 for the UFC. This fight is scheduled for three rounds and I believe is likely to head to the cards. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Arlovski was NOT the originally scheduled opponent for Sherman here. He stepped in as a late replacement when Parker Porter was forced to withdraw (undisclosed reasons) earlier this month. Arlovski is coming off a second round loss to Tom Aspinall in February when he was choked out. But prior to that, he’d won three of four fights, all three wins coming via decision. His game plan here will likely be slow-paced striking to hopefully earn another judge’s decision. While Sherman does not have the best UFC record, he does come into this fight riding a four-fight win streak. All four wins have come via TKO. Three of those wins occurred outside the UFC, but he made a successful return to the promotion last May when he defeated Isaac Villanueva in the second round. The vast majority of Sherman’s fights have not gone to the cards, but this is a tricky matchup against a veteran he was not originally preparing to fight. 10* Over Arlovski/Sherman |
|||||||
04-10-21 | Nina Ansaroff v. Mackenzie Dern OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
04-10-21 | John Makdessi v. Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes (2:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs) between John Makdessi (17-7 overall, 10-7 in UFC) and Ignacio Bahamondes, who is 11-3 overall and making his UFC debut. The fight takes place on the prelims and can be viewed on ESPN. I like for it to (likely) go to the scorecards, or at least get past the midway point of Round 3. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Makdessi has been in the UFC for just over a decade. He’s been used sparingly since 2016, but it is during that time he’s experienced his most success. He was actually on a nice 4-1 run before losing (by decision) to Francisco Trinaldo in March of last year. That was Makdessi’s fourth consecutive fight to go to the judge’s, so you can see why I like the Over here. (He won the previous three, for the record). Overall, 10 of his last 14 fights have gone to the cards. Bahamondes is coming off a win in Dana White’s Contenders Series, a 2nd round KO of Edson Gomez back in December. Before that, he’d been involved in three consecutive decisions, two wins and one loss. I don’t think Makdessi is likely to take Bahamondes down, thus this fight is likely to be mostly standing. While that’s a little scary for betting the Over, I think much of the fight will be Makdessi respecting Bahamondes’ range (he’s 6’3”, which is tall for a lightweight), so there won’t be a ton of enthralling exchanges. 7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Modestas Bukauskas v. Michal Oleksiejczuk UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk (8:10 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs) and will take place on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN. Modestas Bukauskas comes in with an 11-3 career mark, including 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his last time out, suffering a first round KO at the hands of Jimmy Crute. Michal Oleksiejczuk is 14-4 overall and 2-2 in the UFC. He too suffered a first round defeat at the hands of Crute in his last fight! I’m looking for another “quick one” from these two fighters and will take the Under 2.5 rounds. Despite being on a two-fight losing skid, Oleksiejczuk is the favorite here. Not only did he lose to Crute 13 months ago, but he was beaten by Ovince St. Preux back in September 2019. That fight saw him stopped 2:14 into Round 2 via a shoulder choke. You’d have to go back almost two years to find the last time Oleksiejczuk had his hand raised in the Octagon. That was a 44 second knockout. Six of his last eight fights have ended in the first round, including three of the four in the UFC. Only three of his 18 career fights have gone to the scorecards. Bakauskas lost to Crute in October, so his layoff has not been as lengthy. That loss snapped a seven-fight win streak and five of those wins came in the first round. In fact, 9 of Bakauskas’ last 11 fights have not made it to the second round. Given the respective resumes here, I don’t see how you can expect this fight to go very long, let alone make it to the halfway point of the third round. 8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Ryan Spann v. Misha Cirkunov UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Spann/Cirkunov (9:50 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) battle, scheduled for three rounds on the main card. It is the co-main event. Do not expect this one to last very long, let alone go to the scorecards. The expectation for a finish is VERY strong here as the fight is currently listed at -425 to finish “inside the distance.” I believe it will end sooner than halfway point of Round 2. Take the Under 1.5 rounds. Misha Cirkunov is 15-5 in his career, 6-3 in UFC. All nine UFC fights have ended inside the distance, five of the six wins coming via submission. All three times he’s lost, he’s been TKO’d. Incredibly, the Under has hit in 13 of his previous 14 fights including each of the last six. None of those last six fights have made it out of the first round. In fact, only five of his 20 career fights have made it to Round 2. Three of those five instances took place prior to 2012. Ryan Spann is 18-6 overall, including 4-1 in UFC. He’s coming off a first round knockout loss to Johnny Walker back in September. But when Spann wins, it also tends to be in short order. All but one of his 15 career finishes have come prior to the halfway mark of Round 2. Nine of his last 11 fights have ended in Round 1. Spann will almost certainly be looking for the knockout here, but his takedown defense isn’t great and if this fight goes down to the mat, it’s likely to be Cirkunov winning in short order via submission. 10* Under Spann/Cirkunov |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Carlos Ulberg OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg (7:40 ET): This is a fight, scheduled for three rounds, at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). I am taking the Over 1.5 rounds. Kennedy Nzechukwu is 7-1 in his career, but only 1-1 in UFC as he lost his debut to Paul Craig back in 2019. But he bounced back in August of that year with a decision victory over Darko Stosic. Both of his UFC fights so far have made it to the third round and it will be interesting to see how he does here coming off such a long layoff. Carlo Ulberg is undefeated in his MMA career, but has only three fights under his belt and this is his official UFC debut. A byproduct of Dana White’s Contender Series, he won his opportunity by beating Bruno Oliveira in just 2:02 via 1st round KO back in November. It has certainly been a “strange” pro career for Mr. Ulberg as his first two fights came in 2011 and 2018. So this is easily the shortest amount of time between fights for him while it's the longest gap for Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu was not known as the most aggressive fighter prior to the layoff, so it will be interesting to see if that changes. My guess is that it won’t, especially with this being his first appearance inside the Octagon in over 18 months. He’ll have the size advantage here, but look for Ulberg to somewhat neutralize that with his array of leg kicks. This fight should definitely make it past the halfway point of Round 2 and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it went to a decision. 8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Nikita Krylov v. Magomed Ankalaev OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev (10:15 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) bout scheduled for three rounds on the main card. While we may not get to the scorecards here, I do think this fight will make it at least halfway to the distance as the 27-7 Krylov takes on the 14-1 Ankalaev. Go with the Over 1.5 rounds. Magomed Ankalaev suffered a shocking defeat in his UFC debut when he submitted with just one second left in the fight against Paul Craig. Since then (March ‘18), he’s been on a roll, winning five in a row with four finishes, three of them coming in the first round. Ankalaev’s 2020 was odd as he fought Ion Cutelaba twice. The first fight ended in just 38 seconds due to some questionable officiating. The second did go a bit longer, but still ended in Round 1. Still, I expect Ankalaev to have a tougher time here. Krylov also had a misleading UFC debut when he gassed badly late in the fight and lost Soa Palelei. That was all the way back in 2013. After dropping two of his first three UFC fights, Krylov finally started to gain “momentum” by winning 9 of his next 10, all by stoppage. But he’s slowed down a bit the L2+ years, splitting his last four fights (2-2 record) and the last two have gone to decision. Krylov is not easy to finish though and it will take time for Ankalaev, if he is able to do it at all. Krylov’s best bet here is to try and wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds. 10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Derrick Lewis v. Curtis Blaydes OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
6* Over Lewis/Blaydes (10:15 ET): If not for Francis Ngannou, we’d likely be discussing Curtis Blaydes in a very different manner. The #2 ranked heavyweight in the UFC is 0-2 vs. Ngannou, but 14-0 in his career vs. everybody else with 10 TKOs. Blaydes is a massive favorite here to beat #4 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis, who comes in with a 24-7 career record, including 15-5 in the UFC. Being that it’s the main event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds. I think it easily goes Over 1.5. Lewis is on a three-fight win streak coming into Saturday. Two of those were by decision, but he did score a second round TKO over Alexey Oleynik back in August. While only six of Lewis’ 31 fights have gone to the scorecards, he hasn’t had one end in Round 1 since 2016. Only three of the previous 12 have stayed Under 1.5 rounds. Lewis’ only shot at pulling the upset here is probably landing one big punch in the late rounds as he’s not a very active striker. Only twice in his UFC career has he landed 50+ significant strikes in a fight. Blaydes will try to end things early here, but I think Lewis is going to be able to hold on for a while. Blaydes hasn’t fought since June - a decision victory over Alexander Volkoff - as he tested positive for COVID in November, thus delaying this fight. But even though he took down Volkoff 14 different times in that fight, demonstrating his incredible wrestling ability, an inability to finish was apparent. Yes, he did knock out Junior Dos Santos 13 months ago, but I don’t see that happening here. 6* Over Lewis/Blaydes |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Aleksei Oliynyk v. Chris Daukaus UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus (9:00 ET): This is a battle of heavyweights who are 12 years apart in age. Chris Daukaus, who is 2-0 in the UFC and 10-3 in his career, is the young upstart and should be a 2:1 favorite by the time he steps into the cage Saturday night. His opponent is the 43-year old Alexey Oleynik, who is 8-5 in the UFC and 59-14-1 overall in what has been a busy career. This is a fight I don’t see going very long and thus I’m on the Under 1.5 rounds. Daukaus will almost certainly be looking for a knockout Saturday night. That’s how each of his last seven victories have come, including both here in the UFC, which have not made it out of the first round. After stopping Parker Porter last August, it only took 45 seconds for Daukaus to finish Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira in October. The issue for Daukaus is that he does not score the quick knockout, he hits the proverbial “wall” quickly. That could be a major issue against the submission specialist Oleynik. Oleynik fought a total of four times in 2018-19 and all four fights ended in the first round. Two were wins and two were losses. He fought three times in 2020 and the last time we saw him, he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis (who co-headlines this card) just 21 seconds into the second round. Just like Daukaus would seem susceptible to gassing and being submitted, Oleynik seems vulnerable to a quick knockout loss here. Only one of Daukaus’ previous eight fights have made it past the halfway point of the second round. 7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Anthony Hernandez v. Rodolfo Vieira UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Hernandez/Vieira (9:40 ET): This is a fight in the middleweight division (185 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. Vieira is a prohibitive favorite here (nearly -400 on the money line as of this writing) and for good reason as he comes in with a 7-0 career record, including 2-0 in the UFC. Hernandez is 7-2 in his career, but just 1-2 in the UFC. Oddsmakers expect this bout to be over in pretty short order and I agree. I’ll take the Under 1.5 rounds here, meaning there will be a winner before the halfway point of Round 2. Vieria has an impressive background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a solid submission game. He has finished all seven opponents he’s faced, six of them by submission, and five of the seven fights have ended in the first round. Only one has made it to the third round. It was an arm-triangle choke that got the win in both UFC fights, first against Oskar Piechota in August of ‘19, then against Saparbek Safarov in March of last year. My only concern about him is that he did absorb some punishment from Safarov and isn’t particularly great when on his feet. Keeping this fight standing is probably the only viable path Hernandez has to victory here. The problem is he is often TOO aggressive and is likely to be taken down with ease. Once that happens, it’s over. I see Vieira getting Hernandez down and finishing this one early, but the beauty of taking the Under is that if Hernandez gets a “lucky punch,” it’s just as good. None of Hernandez’s three UFC fights have made it to the third round and he was TKO’d in just 39 seconds (by Kevin Holland) his last time out. Seven of his 10 career fights have ended in Round 1. 8* Under Hernandez/Vieira |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 110 h 36 m | Show |
7* Under Poirier/McGregor (11:59 ET): Conor McGregor is unsurprisingly a big favorite here and the ML price figures to get even steeper by the time these two fighters hit the cage. I’ve heard many respected MMA minds talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point. But who am I to doubt McGregor? This lightweight (155 lbs) fight is scheduled for five rounds, but I don’t see any way this thing gets close to going the distance. I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. The first time these two fought was over six years ago and McGregor ended things with a first round TKO in just 106 seconds. The expectation now is that Poirier is going to be a much “tougher out” as McGregor has tasted defeat twice since that win, losing to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. We faded him in the Nurmagomedov fight, but he has since bounced back a 40 second knockout of Donald Cerrone almost exactly one year ago. There have been only three times in his career that a McGregor fight has made it to the third round: the loss to Nurmagomedov, the win in the rematch with Nate Diaz and a decision over Max Holloway back in 2013. I think it would be foolish to expect this fight to go long, let alone the distance. Poirier is 10-2 (w/ one NC) since his loss to McGregor to improve to 26-6 in his career (18-5 in UFC). My guess is that if he is able to “shock the world” and win here, it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision. Both fighters are going to come out looking to strike. The threat of a McGregor knockout is always very real, but Poirier’s striking has improved since the first fight, so there’s always a chance he gets “lucky.” But I’ve seen too many of these McGregor fights not to expect a first round stoppage. 7* Under Poirier/McGregor |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Li Jingliang v. Santiago Ponzinibbio OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 220 h 38 m | Show |
6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li (4:00 ET): This is a fight at 170lbs (welterweight), scheduled for three rounds and it will take place on the main card on ABC. I see it making it well into the second round, if not to the scorecards. All we need is to hit the halfway mark of Round 2 to cash this bet. I think we get there. Santiago Ponzinibbio is coming off a long layoff, for a litany of reasons. Injuries, a life-threatening staph infection and COVID-19 make this the first time he’ll be stepping back in the cage since November 2018. That’s over two years ago. My guess is we’re going to see a bit of an apprehensive start from him. Ponzinibbio is a veteran with a 27-3 career record and he’s won his last seven fights. So I don’t see him making many mistakes either. Three of his last five fights have gone to decision and one of the two that didn’t was a five-round fight that ended in fourth. Jingliang Li comes in at 17-6 and could be a sneaky underdog here. But he too is known for slow starts to his fights. The first Chinese UFC fighter, Li has been a little inconsistent through his time with the promotion. He’s coming off a decision loss to Neil Magny (who Ponzinibbio beat his last time out) in March. So he too has not fought since the pandemic. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just get a feeling this fight is gonna get off to a slow start. Three of Li’s last five fights have gone to decision as well. 6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Geoffrey Neal v. Stephen Thompson UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Neal/Thompson (9:15 ET): The main event of this Saturday’s UFC card is a welterweight bout (170 lbs), scheduled for five rounds, between contenders Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson. Even though Neal is lower ranked within the division (#11 as opposed to #5 for Thompson), he checks in as the slight favorite as of press time (Thursday afternoon). In taking the Under, I’m obviously calling for a finish in this fight and because it’s a five-round affair (as opposed to three), I like those odds. Neal is 5-0 in the UFC and 13-2 overall in his career. This main event opportunity is being viewed as a chance for him to make a “statement” at 170 lbs. He has certainly had a tough 2020 outside of the Octagon. Health issues have rendered him inactive for the entire year and even before that he had to return to his day job because of a lack of opportunities to fight. But when he’s gotten inside the cage, Neal has been magic. All but one of his five UFC wins have come via stoppage and all those ended no later than early in the second round. Going back further, Neal has had only three fights (out of 15) go to decision and two of them were before 2015. Thompson has been around for a while now, having made his UFC debut back in 2012. He’s even got a couple of title opportunities, though he failed both times. There have been some boring decisions on his resume for sure, and his fights have gone to the judges more often than not lately. However, with Neal’s punching power, Thompson could very well be knocked out at any point here. On the flip side, Neal’s long layoff could have him coming out rusty and cost him the fight early. Either way, I’ll take it as I look for one of these fighters to finish the other off inside of 4.5 rounds Saturday night. 10* Under Neal/Thompson |
|||||||
12-05-20 | Damon Jackson v. Ilia Topuria UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Jackson/Topuria (7:35 ET): This fight takes place in the featherweight division (145 lbs) and is scheduled for three rounds. It pits the undefeated (and heavily favored) Ilia Topuria (9-0) against veteran Damon Jackson (18-3-1). The Under is set for 2.5 rounds, so we would need this fight to be over by the midway point of Round 3 at the latest. I do not see it getting to the scorecards. Topuria made a successful UFC debut back in October as he fought his way to a decision victory over Youssef Zalal. While the result of that fight was left up to the judges, that was a first for Topuria, whose eight finishes to start his career included seven in the first round! Almost all of them were by submission (choke), so be on the lookout for that. The bottom line for our betting purposes is that only two of Topuria’s nine career fight have gone longer than four minutes. Jackson is in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go so well as he suffered a loss, a draw and a no contest. But the second go around has started out much better as he’s off a submission victory over Mirsad Bektic back in September. Like Topuria, Jackson has a reputation as a finisher. You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time one of his fights was decided by the judges. Since then, half of his fights have ended in the first round. One of those five was a 10 second loss. Only two of the 10 made it to the third round, one of them being the UFC return in September, but even that was over within 90 seconds of Round 3 beginning. We’re getting a finish here. 8* Under Jackson/Topuria |