Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-22-17 | Marlins -125 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:40 ET): The Marlins were a loser for me Friday night here in San Diego. A four-run seventh by the Padres is what decided the game, which had been knotted at 1-1 ever since the second inning. Miami did score two runs in the top of the ninth, but it wasn't nearly enough. Still, I'll come back w/ the Fish tonight. San Diego being 8-10 is a major surprise to me, given their preseason projection of being the worst team in all of baseball. In terms of run differential, they are currently the worst (-26). So, I say it's time for them to start losing some more games. They've shockingly won three in a row here at home, but ye would be correct in having little faith in tonight's starter Jered Weaver, who has an 0-3 TSR w/ a 4.24 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Coming into the year, having Weaver as a front-end starter was thought to be a disaster. So far, that thought process has played out on the field. The Padres actually now have a winning record when anyone BUT Weaver is on the hill, but as noted above, they're 0-3 in his starts, all of which have taken place on the road. But don't think a start in pitcher friendly Petco Park will cure all that ails him. It certainly won't improve the velocity on his woeful fastball. Last night aside, Miami is a team that has generally hit well this year. They're sixth in batting average, so expect the runs to start coming at a higher frequency. They had pounded out double digit hits in six of their nine games previous to yday. On the other hand, yesterday marked only the second time all year that the Padres finished a game w/ double digit hits. They had exactly 10, their most in a game since a 4-0 win over the Dodgers all the way back on 4.4, just their second game of the season. The team is batting a collective .215, which is 26th in MLB. They have that same ranking in both runs scored and on base percentage as well. This is of course nothing new as for years now this has been one of the worst offensive clubs in all of baseball. Thus, Ill call for Marlins starter Dan Straily to build off his excellent outing last Sunday when he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Mets, which ended up being a 4-2 win. Straily needs to work on his control some (5 BBs last time out), but fortunately the Padres don't draw many walks as a team. 10* Miami |
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04-22-17 | Cubs -174 v. Reds | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): While the season is not even one month old, I suspect most casual baseball observers were stunned to see the Reds on top of the Cubs in the NL Central standings coming into this weekend series. As was I. But that placement was rectified w/ the defending World Series Champs coming from behind to win yday, 6-5 in 11 innings. They've now won three straight while Cincy has lost three in a row. Needless to say, you can expect the gap between these teams to only grow as the season wears on and head to head play will have a lot to do w/ that. The Cubs are now 29-10 vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season and have taken six of the past seven series. A game where they led by three runs entering the ninth inning was probably the best shot Cincy had at a win in this series and they blew it last night. Now the Reds must face Jake Arrieta, who is up to his "old tricks" w/ 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP through three starts. Giving up a pair of home runs his last time out cost him against the Pirates, but I don't think there is any reason to be concerned. This is a pitcher who has gone 42-14 over his L67 starts w/ a 2.41 ERA. He has a 21-5 KW ratio this year. Arrieta threw a no-hitter in this ballpark last season and also has a CG, one-hit, shutout to his credit at the Reds' expense. Not only are the Cubs 16-4 their L20 meetings overall with the Reds, they are 16-4 their L20 games here at Great American Ballpark. Remember how these teams were priced coming into the season. The Cubs are the consensus best team in baseball while the Reds were pegged as likely the second worst, ahead of only San Diego. This is almost a no-brainer. Just like yday, the Reds will go with a starter making his 2017 debut opposite a Cubs hurler w/ a strong pedigree. Today, it's Cody Reed, who has been strong out of the bullpen so far. But as a starter, Reed really struggled against the Cubs last year, allowing 11 runs in just eight innings of work. He lost both times he faced them. The home run ball continues to plague Reds' pitching against the Cubs. After giving up 42 to them last season, they allowed three yday, including a three-run shot that tied the game in the ninth by Anthony Rizzo. That blown save opportunity was all-too reminiscent of last year's Reds team. The Cubs have won all four times this year when facing a southpaw starter. Expect them to jump all over Reed and the Reds here. 8* Chi Cubs |
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04-21-17 | Marlins -117 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
8* Miami (10:10 ET): A rare time to find Miami as a money line favorite, on the road no less. But given the San Diego is providing the opposition, it's an opportune time to strike. The Padres' 2017 projection was basically the opposite of "rosy," so even a 7-10 record has to be considered a mild surprise. But take that record with the proverbial "grain of salt" as they've actually been outscored by 28 runs, which is the worst margin in all of MLB! They've gotten crushed on numerous occasions (4 losses by 7+ runs) and it's not as if they're scoring much. But they did just take two of three from Arizona here at Petco, thanks to allowing just one run in the pair of victories. I'll call for this madness to end and San Diego to start losing more regularly, starting tonight. Miami gets a bit of an edge here in that they had Thursday off. They probably needed it after dropping two of three up in Seattle. I played against them in the opener of that series as they were beaten 6-1. They responded w/ a 5-0 shutout Tuesday, but then lost the rubber match 10-5. Let's remember that they did take three of four from the Mets in the previous series, albeit at home. Given that the offense is third in team batting average (.267), you'd think they would have scored more than 70 runs in 15 games (12th). Don't be surprised though if they cross the plate w/ greater regularity tonight facing embattled Padres starter Andrew Cahill, who has lost both of his starts so far while allowing seven runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's also issued six walks, three in each start. Countering Cahill will be Adam Conley. The Marlins are 2-0 when he toes the rubber and he's posted a 0.909 WHIP. Both starts were against the Mets and he allowed just five hits in 11 innings of work. The bottom line here is I just don't think San Diego is very good and going against them in this price range seems like a massive steal. 8* Miami |
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04-21-17 | Mariners v. A's -129 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's took last night's series opener (as +135 underdogs on the ML) and have now won three straight. They won Thursday on the back of a surprisingly strong outing from starter Cesar Valdez (1st big league start in 7 years!) and a three-run HR by Trevor Plauffe in the seventh. Beating James Paxton is quite impressive when you consider the kind of beginning to the season yday's Mariners' starter has had. Tonight, Oakland finds itself favored on the ML, which may surprise some. But as alluded to earlier, this team is playing well. Meanwhile, Seattle is just 1-7 on the road thanks to batting a collective .185. Look for the A's to make it two straight over the Mariners and four in a row overall. Oakland starter Sean Manaea is coming off one of the stranger outings of 2017 thus far. He threw five no-hit innings last Saturday against Texas, but was charged with two runs (only one earned) and walked five. His team start record is now 0-3 and his ERA, 5.51, but he has a WHIP of 1.041. In his last two starts, Manaea has 16 strikeouts and has allowed only three hits. That's in 10 1/3 innings. While there was the control issue his last time out, when you see that kind of discrepancy between the ERA and WHIP, it's usually a tell-tale sign that the pitcher's fortune is likely to turn around for the better. (I find WHIP to be a far more reliable metric than the somewhat outdated ERA). Opposing hitters are batting just .138 against Manaea so far. He has not lost in three career starts vs. the Mariners, by the way. Seattle counters w/ Hisashi Iwakuma, who had two good starts to open the year, but was shaky his last time out. Iwakuma lasted only three innings at home vs. Texas and gave up six runs on seven hits. However, the Mariners' bats were able to bail him out in what turned out to be a 7-6 win. Ironically, the team lost those first two starts when he sharper, both by a single run. Oakland's lineup has produced nine runs in each of the last two games, so Iwakuma could be up against it here. The Mariners' bullpen has also been pretty lousy to this point w/ a 5.98 ERA (28th) and 1.48 WHIP (23rd) w/ opponents batting a frightening .280 against them (27th). 8* Oakland |
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04-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Angels -138 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays have turned into a complete dumpster fire at this point w/ a league worst 3-12 record that has seen them get outscored by 21 runs. While it's true I took them Wednesday (and they cashed!), they followed that up by losing 4-1 in extra innings yday to Boston, in a getaway day affair. Having to now fly out to the West Coast does them no favors. They fanned an incredible 18 times in yday's day game and while the majority of the team's losses have been by three runs or fewer, I don't see them turning it around here. The Angels are returning home off a disappointing seven-game road swing (went 1-6) and they are the ones who I see turning things around, at least on Friday. We have a battle of starters making their respective 2017 debuts here. Mat Latos goes for Toronto in an emergency role as the team has already had to put two starters, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez, to the disabled list. I don't have a ton of confidence here in Latos, who is on his eighth team and was quite fortunate to have a 9-3 team start record w/ the White Sox and Washington, given he also had an ERA of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.454. Sure, the Angels lineup hasn't been doing much scoring recently, but back in the friendly confines of their home park that should change. In six home games thus far, the Halos are scoring 5.3 rpg while batting a collective .291. Latos will obviously have to deal w/ Mike Trout here. Pitching for the home team will be Alex Meyer. His call-up was due to the fact the team is playing 20 games in 20 days and wanted to give the members of its rotation an extra day of rest. The lineup Meyer will face tonight is nowhere near as formidable as Blue Jays' lineups of the past couple seasons. The team is hitting just .215 for the year and has scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Furthermore, this price range should suit Meyer and the Angels well. Not only are they 44-18 the L3 seasons as ML favorite of -125 to -175 at home, but Toronto is 5-20 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 8* LA Angels |
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04-20-17 | Royals -109 v. Rangers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): Regression can be so unkind and the Texas Rangers are finding that out right now. Last year's AL West Champs may have won 95 games, but they outscored opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season. How does that even happen, you ask? A historic 36-11 record in one-run games (ALL-TIME best in MLB history!) was the culprit there. This year's team has started 5-10 and not surprising (to me) is that they are 0-4 in one-run affairs. You see, the majority of teams will finish at or around .500 in one-run games over the course of a season. Any outlier is considered "lucky" or "unlucky" depending on your vantage point. I look for the Rangers to be an unlucky team in 2017 and the hard times should continue tonight w/ a visit from Danny Duffy and Kansas City. It certainly wasn't a case of "bad luck" Wednesday as the Rangers were simply rocked by Oakland, 9-1. Skipper Jeff Bannister was ejected and the team has now dropped five of six, falling into last place in the AL West. Now they are at least back home this weekend following a nine-game road trip out West. But not having a day off in between is a killer in my view. So is facing Danny Duffy, who is off to a terrific start w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three outings, all of them quality. Last time out, Duffy was fantastic as he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings of work against the Angels (KC won 7-1). The Royals' starting rotation comes into this series sporting the top ERA in the entire American League and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of the past nine games! Meanwhile, the Texas lineup is scuffling right now as they've been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games and they had just three hits each of the last two days agianst Oakland. The Royals were just 1-6 against the Rangers last year, so they'll be out for revenge. They were swept in their lone visit to Arlington. One pitcher not responsible for that record is Andrew Cashner, tonight's starter for Texas. Cashner was signed in the offseason and his 1st start of '17 wasn't all too promising as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and posted a negative KW rate. Duffy is 14-3 since the start of last season, so it's a significant edge for KC on the mound tonight, not that they need it. 10* Kansas City |
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04-19-17 | Tigers v. Rays -162 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I'm back to backing the Rays after they came through as my 10* Game of the Week in last night's series opener. That was as much a play AGAINST Tigers' starter Michael Fulmer as anything else, but it's now certainly worth noting that the Rays are 6-2 this year at Tropicana Field. Tonight, this is most definitely a play ON TB starter Chris Archer, who is off to a 3-0 start to 2017. I've played him twice and in my analysis for the season opener, I predicted a massive bounce back from him this season. Last year, he finished dead last among starters in net units at the betting window, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set. Look for Archer and the Rays to make it two straight over the Tigers tonight. We're not getting as good a price on the Rays as we did last night, but that's to be expected w/ Archer on the bump. He already is sporting a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Last time out, he was not at his best (lasted only 5 2/3 innings), but still held the Red Sox to just one run in Boston and the Rays won as underdogs (I had them!). He is now the first Rays' starter since '13 to open a season w/ three starts of allowing two runs or fewer. He has a 3.12 ERA vs. the Tigers in six career starts. Behind him is a bullpen that's been a lot better at home, reflecting the overall fate of the team this year. In what is already shaping up as a competitive AL East, TB cannot afford to fall too far back. But remember, I've identified them as one of the AL's most improved teams, if for no other reason then they were very lucky last year (MLB-worst 13-26 in one run games). Going into yesterday, Detroit was riding high after taking two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. They are 4-0 off a loss this year, but I'm not a buyer on this 8-5 start of theirs. They've actually now been outscored by 13 runs or an average of one per game. Tampa Bay might only be 7-8, but they're dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed. Tonight's starter for the Tigers is Jordan Zimmerman and he did not look good his last time out vs. Minnesota. He gave up five runs in 4 2/3 IP and also walked five batters. This is Zim's first road start of 2017 and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Archer. Last night also marked Detroit's worst offensive showing of the season so far. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-19-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays nightmare season continued last night w/ an 8-7 home loss to the division rival Red Sox. As if a now 2-11 start (league worst) wasn't already bad enough, making matters more frustrating was the fact they had Boston in an advantageous spot Tuesday. The Red Sox had to play Monday (annual Patriot's Day game vs. Rays) while Toronto was off. Furthermore, the Jays raced out to an early 2-0 lead yday and had Marcus Stroman on the hill. But the de facto Toronto ace could not hold the lead and ended up w/ his shortest outing of 2017 (3 2/3 innings) after giving up six runs and 11 hits. The Jays almost pulled off a miracle rally in the ninth, turning an 8-4 deficit into 8-7, but alas, they could not get that one final run. I refuse to believe Toronto is this bad. Last night was already their fifth one-run loss of 2017. Only two of their 11 losses have been by more than two runs. Eventually, you would have to think that "bad luck" evens out. This has been one of the top offenses in the game the past several seasons, but this year the lineup is only producing to the tune of 3.2 runs per game and a collective .222 batting average. That's not good. But it's still early and only a matter of time before the runs come. Now I realize there should be some trepidation w/ tonight's starter Francisco Liriano. But after a disastrous first start of 2017, he was actually outstanding last Thursday vs. Baltimore, giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP. He finished w/ a 10-2 KW ratio, but sadly was a hard luck loser as the Jays fell 2-1. The pitcher I'd be more concerned with here is actually Boston's Rick Porcello, last year's Cy Young winner who I'm on the record as saying is due for some major regression in 2017. It was a minor miracle that Porcello was a 22-game winner a year ago (25-9 TSR). He opened 2-0 this year, but after being fortunate to come out ahead against Detroit in his second start (allowed four runs and 11 hits), I played against him his last time out and won big. Porcello allowed eight runs on eight hits, four of them home runs, in a 10-5 home loss to Tampa Bay as -120 ML favorites. While he was 13-1 at Fenway last season (15-1 TSR), his road record was just 9-4 (10-8 TSR). C'mon Toronto! 9* Toronto |
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04-18-17 | Tigers v. Rays -109 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I like what I'm seeing here w/ some overnight steam on the home team. The Rays come into this three-game set at just 6-8 on the year. They've dropped six of seven overall, including three straight in Boston over the weekend. Despite outhitting the Red Sox on Patriot's Day Monday (11-9), they fell short on the scoreboard, 4-3. It was a game that saw just one run scored over the final seven innings, ironically by the Rays. But I expect this club to starting playing better moving forward, especially now that they're back at Tropicana Field. The entirety of the 1-6 stretch came on the road. So that means they're a strong 5-2 at home. Detroit is 8-4 and off a win Sunday (at Cleveland), but has actually been outscored by nine runs so far. While I expect improvement from the Rays, I have serious doubts as to the Tigers ability to remain on top of the AL Central. Today's starter Michael Fulmer is one player in particular that I expect to regress. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year posted a net gain of 13.2 units at the betting window (7th best), but did so in spite of a somewhat pedestrian numbers. The team also went 8-0 in games where Fulmer did NOT factor into the decision. He has a 2-0 TSR so far in 2017, which surprises me as does the fact his ERA/WHIP have actually improved. But both starts also came at home. Five of his seven losses LY took place on the road. After surprisingly taking two of three in Cleveland over the weekend, this series should be a bit of a letdown for the Tigers. Interestingly, this will be only the 2nd night game for Detroit so far. Them winning in spite of a terrible bullpen (28th in ERA) has been particularly curious. Note all eight Tigers wins this year have been by three runs or less. Tampa Bay infamously had the worst record in MLB last year when it came to one-run games, but I firmly believe that this year will be different simply due to that record being something that typically regresses/progresses to the mean. The Rays' own bullpen performance was much better at home than it's been on the road thus far, which ties into the overall results. Yesterday, Rays' hitters were just 3 for 15 w/ RISP. Starter Matt Andriese actually pitched well his last time out, giving up just one run in six innings to the Yankees. 10* Tampa Bay |
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04-17-17 | Marlins v. Mariners -137 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Both of these teams come into this series riding three-game win streaks. Seattle just swept Texas while Miami took the final three of a four-game set from the Mets. Key for the Marlins, however, is that last series was at home. This will be their first venture into Safeco Field since 2008. While they gain the designated hitter, I'm not going to expect much. Like most National League teams do, the Marlins have struggled in Interleague Play, going just 13-27 the last two seasons. Miami to Seattle, I believe, is the longest possible road trip in all of MLB. So, with the Mariners having just swept a superior foe (compared to Miami) over the weekend, I see no reason why we shouldn't throw our endorsement behind them here in tonight's series opener. Miami obviously came into 2017 with a giant void in the starting rotation due to the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. But shockingly they've allowed the third fewest runs in the NL, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs. I expect that side of the ledger to start going up, however. Tom Koehler will be the one to start on the bump tonight and while his ERA looks nice, it's a tad bit misleading. His WHIP paints a better picture of his skill set as control issues have plagued him dating back to last season. He's walked five in 11 IP so far this year and also given up three home runs. Going back to the end of 2016, Koehler has walked multiple batters in 10 consecutive starts. Seattle hitters did a pretty decent job of drawing free passes in the Texas series (11 in three games), so pay attention to this aspect of the game. Both teams are off walk-off wins on Sunday. In fact, all three of Miami's wins against the Mets came on rallies in the eighth inning or later, two of them a byproduct of the final at-bat. Seattle rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to shock Texas yday as all the Rangers' luck from 2016 has predictably gone by the wayside. I like what I've seen from this Mariners lineup over the past seven days as they have averaged a healthy 5.7 rpg over that time frame. That should be more than enough for southpaw Ariel Miranda tonight. Miranda has had to face Houston twice so far, so this is a drop in class. Pay no mind to the hullaballoo surrounding Ichiro Suzuki's return to the Pacifc Northwest as the former batting champ is 1 for 21 for Miami so far and by playing here will be somewhat of a liability in the lineup. Miami is just 14-22 off three or more wins the L2 seasons. 10* Seattle |
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04-16-17 | Padres +115 v. Braves | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
9* San Diego (1:35 ET): Thus far, it appears as if the unveiling of the Braves' new park (SunTrust Park) in suburban Cobb County was worth the wait. The home team has won the first two of this four-game set, Friday's opener being my *10* Game of the Week. But despite the Padres rather ominous projection for the year, I'm switching course Sunday and moving to them. They'll get to face Bartolo Colon here, a major reprieve after dealing w/ Julio Teheran and knuckleballer RA Dickey the L2 days. Despite being at a disadvantage on the mound, San Diego has been competitive the first two games of the series, even taking an early 2-0 lead yday. Remember - it's not like Atlanta is going to be some juggernaut this season. Good value here. Today sees the Padres sending Trevor Cahill out to the bump. In his 1st start of '17, Cahill allowed three runs (only two earned) in five innings. But he and his team were overmatched in LA (1st series of the year) as +225 underdogs. You'll note Cahill hasn't pitched in 11 days. He landed on the DL w/ a back injury after throwing 99 pitches vs. the Dodgers (most in a start since '14). The time off should do him some good. The Braves lineup he'll be facing today is hardly formidable. In fact, Atlanta has yet to score more than five runs in any game this year! Day games have seen their bats get particularly anemic, averaging just 3.0 rpg as they're 0-3. The ageless wonder Colon looked good in his 1st start, which came against his former team, the Mets. But he struggled mightily on Tuesday as Miami hit him up for six runs in just four innings of work. Going back to the end of last year, the rotund righty has given up a home run in five consecutive outings. So far this year, San Diego has homered in every game but two, including twice yday in what is supposed to be a pretty hitter-friendly park. Atlanta's bullpen has been unusually good the L2 games and I'm not convinced that will continue. Eventually, Colon has to reach the "end of the line" as well and I seriously doubt he'll be able to match last season's renaissance when he went 15-8 w/ a 3.43 ERA, especially considering he's pitching for a bad team. 9* San Diego |
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04-15-17 | White Sox +122 v. Twins | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox were able to come in and beat the Twins yday despite scoring only two runs. Therefore, you have to like their chances today even though they'll be facing Ervin Santana. Santana has been the definition of 'lights out' in his two starts thus far, allowing just one run and four hits in 13 IP. His previous start came against these White Sox, opposite the very same pitcher he'll be facing again Saturday. That would be Jose Quintana, who pitched well himself. In this "immediate revenge" situation, I'll side w/ the dog as they're playing better of late and Minnesota's fast start, like a lot of other bad teams, has to be considered somewhat of a mirage. When Santana and Quintana faced off Sunday, it was a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Santana threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball while Quintana allowed just two runs and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. Quintana struck out more hitters (7 to 4) while walking fewer, but he made one critical mistake, that being allowing a solo home run in the seventh. A rough Opening Day start for Quintana skews the fact that the southpaw had a career year in 2016, both in terms of ERA and strikeouts. Control will be the key to today's ballgame as no American League team has taken more walks so far than has Minnesota and that's been critical to their surprising success. The White Sox are in the midst of a pretty severe teardown. But it's hard to lose games when you're not giving up many runs! Since an Opening Day loss in Detroit, they haven't allowed more than four in any game! They've allowed three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. For a Minnesota team that relies so heavily on its offense, that makes this a bad matchup. They're just 9-14 vs. the Pale Hose since the start of last season. Chicago comes in on a three-game win streak as it won at Cleveland twice earlier in the week. The Twins have now dropped three of four and have scored four runs or less in six of the past seven games. Good price on the underdog here. 8* Chi White Sox |
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04-15-17 | Brewers +104 v. Reds | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (1:10 ET): So much for that fast start by Cincinnati. The Brewers have come to Great American Ballpark and taken the first two games of this four-game set in dominating fashion, winning 5-1 and 10-4. It's crucial to remember that the Reds were projected to be one of the very worst teams in baseball this year w/ the Padres probably the only team that received a bleaker outlook. Not much is expected from Milwaukee either, but so far they've clearly demonstrated that they are superior to their NL Central rival. They enter Saturday riding a four-game win streak as they also swept a quick two-game set in Toronto earlier in the week. Make it five straight! It has not been a great start to the season for today's Brew Crew starter, Zach Davies, who comes in w/ a 0-2 record after allowing a total of 11 runs his first two starts. But he had to face Colorado and the Cubs, two of the NL's more formidable offenses. Davies was the pitcher of record the last time the Brew Crew lost, which was 7-4 to the Cubs on Sunday. But there are signs of a turnaround, namely the fact he retired 12 of the final 13 hitters he saw in that outing. Craig Counsell has gone on the record, saying Davies has "elite command" w/ his fastball and I'll take the skipper's word for it. Run suppression has been key for the Brew Crew during this four-game run as they've allowed just eight runs total. The bullpen has been lights out w/ a 0.00 ERA and 0.550 WHIP! Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has a 2-0 record, but his WHIP is higher than his ERA and he received a ton of run support his last time out. The run support he got against Pittsburgh cannot always be counted upon and the WHIP being higher than the ERA is indicative of control issues. Sure enough, he walked five hitters (in just two innings!) at Pittsburgh Monday. He was really fortunate there that Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow was even worse and exhibited less control. They started out fine, but Reds relievers were a disaster last year and have already begun to regress. No surprise there as the fast start was a mirage. The team did win it's lone time after giving up 10+ runs this season, but they're just 10-20 in that situation since the start of 2015. 10* Milwaukee |
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04-14-17 | Padres v. Braves -149 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): This is a very big game for the Braves. On Friday, they become the last team in MLB to play their home opener. They've opened 2-6 on the road, so they'll be thankful to be back in Atlanta. Especially because this is the official open of a new park in Cobb County. SunTrust park promises to be pretty hitter-friendly as it's a short right field wall (in distance from home plate) and the wall itself is shorter in left. There is also far less foul territory here compared to Turner Field. The Braves did win yday, 5-4 over Miami, and I think this is going to be a big weekend for them. While he's been as hard luck as any pitcher in baseball the L2 seasons, I have no problem whatsoever putting all my eggs in starter Julio Teheran's basket. Look for Atlanta to win its home opener. San Diego was almost unanimously projected to be the worst team in either league this season. So it's certainly a surprise to see them open 5-5. They just took two of three from the Rockies at Coors Field. That's after taking two of three from the Giants, at home. But it's only a matter of time before this club falls off, somewhat dramatically. On paper, this is a much worse group than the one that won only 71 games in 2016 as a ton of salary was shed. For two years running, the Padres have been the worst hitting team in baseball. What's really scary is how "fortunate" they were LY to rank 21st in runs scored. That's because they also ranked 30th in team batting average, 30th in OBP and 28th in slugging. There are 30 teams in MLB, in case you have to be reminded. Wednesday marked only the 16th time the pitching staff has produced a shutout in the L3 seasons. The fact that Teheran has a 10-22 team start record since the start of last season is nothing short of criminal. Last year, he finished w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, including 2.69 and 0.909 on the road. His TSR this year is 0-2 despite him not allowing a single earned run! He left a scoreless game w/ the Mets on Opening Day after six innings and the team somehow ended up losing 6-0. Then the bullpen could not protect a lead Teheran left them w/ against Pittsburgh on Sunday. It's "high time" for this very talented pitcher to start getting some "W's." He was 2-0 LY vs. San Diego w/ a 2.40 ERA and 16-1 KW rate in 15 IP. He'll be opposed here by Braves' castoff Jhoulys Chacin, who turned in a stunning performance Saturday opposite Madison Bumgarner. But Chacin allowed nine runs (in 3 1/3 IP) his first start and had a 5.40 ERA in five starts w/ Atlanta in 2016. 10* Atlanta |
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04-14-17 | Tigers v. Indians -147 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The reigning AL Champs came into 2017 favored to repeat and staked their claim as the top team in the Junior Circuit by sweeping the Rangers to start the season. But since then, they've dropped five of six - to the D'backs and White Sox. The lone win came in the home opener, 2-1, on Tuesday in extra innings. Now they welcome in a Detroit team that started 6-2 before getting beat up in its own right Thursday, 11-5 by Minnesota. So somebody has to bounce back Friday and my money is on the Tribe. They were 14-4 LY vs. the Tigers and there's just no way that they and specifically the offense stay down for much longer. Starter Josh Tomlin gave Cleveland next to nothing last night as he allowed five first inning runs, including a lead off homer. I expect far better tonight from Trevor Bauer, even though his 1st outing of 2017 hardly went well. Though he posted a 7-0 KW rate, Bauer allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings en route to the team losing 11-2 out in Arizona. Admittedly, his career marks against Detroit aren't great. But again, Cleveland dominated Detroit in 2016, outscoring them 106-71 and that's despite a late season 12-0 loss! It would certainly help Bauer if the Indians' lineup would start producing. Last year, they ranked 2nd in the AL in runs scored; so far they are 12th this year. But in an attempt to rectify that situation Lonnie Chisenhall finds his way into the batting order tonight in place of the ineffective Tyler Naquin. Countering Bauer will be Daniel Norris, one of the four Tigers' pitchers to beat Cleveland last year. Norris was okay in his first start of 2017, allowing just three runs in 6+ innings, but the team lost and he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tigers' fans will want to point to the fact that their club has yet to drop B2B games. But there's a first time for everything and this weekend they're facing an opponent that simply has more talent. Something else worth mentioning is that Detroit's bullpen has generally been awful so far, posting a 7.06 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. 8* Cleveland |
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04-14-17 | Rays +118 v. Red Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 118 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): For me, this one is all about the pitching matchup and expected regression to the mean from last year. The Rays' Chris Archer was actually the biggest money-burner in baseball last season w/ a 10-23 TSR resulting in a loss of 15.6 units. But through two starts this year, he's looked quite good. I took him on Opening Day when he took down the Yankees, allowing just two runs over seven innings. He was actually even better last week vs. Toronto, whom he held to two runs (on only five hits) over 7 2/3 IP, even though he did not factor into the decision (Rays won 3-2). Meanwhile, Boston's Rick Porcello is coming off a stunning 22-win 2016 that netted him +13.4 units (#6 overall) and the American League Cy Young. Porcello has a 2-0 TSR this year, but has done so in spite of a 4.38 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. It's about time for his record to regress. |
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04-13-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -116 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:07 ET): Needless to say, it has NOT been the start to the season that the Blue Jays had hoped for. They're 1-7 (worst record in baseball) and have lost five in a row. They come in off B2B embarrassing home losses to Milwaukee. So why endorse them? Well, regression to the mean is certainly likely. Especially, for starter Francisco Liriano, whose ERA and WHIP can ONLY go down following a disastrous first outing where he allowed five runs while getting only one out. Fortunately here, he'll be opposed by Kevin Gausman, who hasn't exactly had a stellar start to 201 either. While they won in Boston yday, I remain skeptical of the Orioles this season. Though off to the worst start in franchise history, it's not as if Toronto is being dominated. Four of their losses have been by one run and all but one by three runs or fewer. They opened the year by dropping a pair of games at Camden Yards, 3-2 and 3-1. So revenge is in the air tonight at Rogers Centre. Prior to yday, the Baltimore lineup had been struggling every bit as much as Toronto's. They hit four homers yday, which seems like an unsustainable blueprint. Entering yday's game, they had just five home runs in the first six games and were batting a collective .215. On the Toronto side, I do see an offensive surge on the horizon. There's too much talent in this lineup for them to be down for so long. The Orioles have won both of Gausman's starts thus far, but it was no thanks to him. In 10 IP, he's allowed six runs and 13 hits while also walking seven. That works out to a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. He's been fortunate in that the bullpen hasn't given up a single run in either of his two starts. He threw only 12 first-pitch strikes against 24 hitters against the Yankees on Saturday and even committed a balk. As bad as Liriano was in his first start, it was the shortest of his career, and he's likely to bounce back. 10* Toronto |
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04-13-17 | Pirates v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
8* Boston (2:05 ET): Both of these teams are licking their wounds right now after their last series. The Red Sox had to settle for a split w/ Baltimore after losing 12-5 yday, a game in which knuckleballer Steven Wright simply didn't "have it." However, what happened to the Pirates (at home!) at the hands of Cincinnati was far worse. The Bucs were actually swept by the Reds to start the week, getting outscored 22-5 in the process. With runners in scoring position, Pirate hitters went 0 for 23 in the series. Given those results, I can't imagine things going too well for them at Fenway Park today in what is a make up for a rainout last Thursday. Boston won the other two games of that series and today, I'll call for them to make it a "sweep" over their NL visitors. It's the same pitching matchup here as was originally scheduled for last Thursday. For Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez ended up facing Detroit last Saturday and did not fare well, giving up four runs in five innings. He allowed two home runs as well. But with the Pirates bats beyond anemic at this point, Rodriguez should be in line for a nice bounce back outing. Pittsburgh is 0-3 already this season against left-handed starters. The Bucs will counter w/ Chad Kuhl, who put a TON of runners on base Saturday against Atlanta thanks to issuing six walks in five innings. Somehow, Pittsburgh still ended up winning that game, 6-4, but clearly that's not a recipe for success. Looking for evidence that the Red Sox will bounce back? Well, look no further than a 17-9 record the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, after the flu ravaged the clubhouse, the team is now starting to get healthier. Rodriguez will be leaned upon heavily here due to the high bullpen usage yday, but Robbie Ross Jr (one of several players affected by the flu) may return to help out if need be. Yesterday was the Sox first loss at Fenway. The offense still pounded out 26 hits in the two games vs. Orioles pitching. Including the two wins over Pittsburgh last week, Boston is now 29-13 vs. the National League this L3 seasons. 8* Boston |
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04-12-17 | Astros v. Mariners +108 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Mariners and the division rival Astros have played a large role in that. This will already be the seventh head to head meeting of 2017 and so far Houston has gone 4-2. That includes a 7-5 win here at Safeco Field last night. It was a game Seattle actually led though, 3-2 going into the sixth inning. But that's when the wheels came off. With two outs in that frame, two unlucky bounces went against the M's. The first was an infield hit that loaded the bases. The next was a line drive off the glove of RF Mitch Haniger that cleared them. The Astros ended up setting a season-high in both runs and hits. That's interesting because George Springer has four leadoff home runs in nine games! I'll call for Springer and the Astros not to get the lucky bounces tonight and to cool off. Seattle did take Monday's series opener by a score of 6-0, for the record. But they are just 2-7 overall now, including a horrible loss on Sunday where they blew a six-run lead in the ninth to the Angels. That's one of three one-run losses so far, not to mention there was last night and a 13-inning loss back in Houston. Despite losing four of the six head to head matchups w/ Houston, the M's have played them relatively even. In fact, the two teams have scored an identical number of runs against one another in the six games (19). Last night marked the first time that the Astros were able to score more than three times in nine innings against Mariners pitching. Starting tonight for the home side will be veteran Yovani Gallardo. His 1st start of '17 did not go that well. He allowed three runs in five innings as the team fell 5-1 to the Angels. Allowing 10 baserunners isn't exactly ideal, but Gallardo should pitch better here. I say that because he has a 15-5 career record vs. Houston w/ a 3.15 ERA. Starting opposite him will be Michael Fiers, who was a hard luck loser to Kansas City in his first start. But like Gallardo, Fiers did give up a home run in his first start. He also had control issues w/ three walks. I look for Seattle's offense to come alive here. 10* Seattle |
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04-11-17 | Reds v. Pirates -180 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates' confounding struggles w/ the Reds continued yday w/ an ugly 7-1 loss here at PNC Park. They now have a losing record vs. Cincy the L3 seasons and are just 10-10 against them since the start of last season despite the Reds having the worst record in the Senior Circuit during that time. The issue Monday was a complete lack of control from starter Tyler Glasnow, who walked five (including four straight in the 1st inning!) and barely threw 50% of his pitches for strikes. Cincinnati starter Brandon Finnegan wasn't very good either, but his ineffectiveness was offset by a shocking performance by the bullpen, which didn't allow a single baserunner! That's a huge departure from LY when the Reds' bullpen was the worst in baseball. Cincy is now 5-2, but I remain skeptical of them and the bullpen. In the L6 games, they've posted three shutouts and gave up only the one run yday. But I don't think that's sustainable. Certainly not w/ tonight's starter Rookie Davis on the bump. The appropriately named pitcher (he's a rookie!) was hit hard in his '17 debut, giving up four runs and five hits in just three innings of work. Somehow the Reds were able to come back and win that game, 7-4, but the opponent was the Phillies and it was at home. That game not only saw another shocking performance by the bullpen, but one of its members, Michael Lorenzen, became the 1st pitcher in eight years to hit a pinch-hit HR. Again, I do not think the blueprint is sustainable for a Reds team that lost 94 games a year ago. Pittsburgh will counter tonight w/ the highly touted Jameson Tallion. The problems w/ Glasnow yday should not be present again here. Tallion dominated the Red Sox in his 1st start of '17 by throwing seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. That's quite the impressive performance there. Tallion has worked against the Reds twice before and has given up just 4 ER in 11 IP. Last night marked the Bucs' first home loss of the season and after being embarrassed I feel it's only logical that they respond and take the middle game of this three-game set. The Reds have lost over 100 road games since the start of 2015. 8* Pittsburgh |
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04-11-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -121 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:10 ET): Baltimore became the last team in MLB to lose a game when they fell Sunday, 7-3, to the Yankees. Buck Showalter continues to defy the skeptics in the analytics community by getting the Orioles to overachieve, seemingly year after year. But I don't like the O's chances here at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Granted, the host Red Sox had to play yday and lost for the third time in four games to the Tigers. But they won both home games (Pittsburgh) so far and you have to believe the offense is going to break out sooner, rather than later. Dylan Bundy was shockingly good in his first start of the year for Baltimore. Pitching last Wedneday vs. Toronto, he allowed just one run and four hits across seven innings. He also struck out eight and didn't walk anybody. But Bundy has not fared well in the past against Boston as his ERA is 6.53 in seven games. Sure, the lack of availablity of Zach Britton and Brad Brach is what cost the O's in their first loss (Darren O'Day gave up four runs in the ninth Sunday), but it should be pointed out that the club has yet to play a single road game. Over the L2 seasons, they are just 71-92 away from Camden Yards. Boston turns to Drew Pomeranz, who will be making his first start of '17. He had been bothered by an elbow issue and, truth be told, didn't have a very effective Spring. But I can see him bouncing back here against a Baltimore lineup that has been held to just three runs in three of its five games. Like I said earlier, it's also just a matter of time before the vaunted Red Sox offense gets going. The lineup has been ravaged by the flu, but is now getting healthier and Xander Bogaerts is expected back in the lineup tonight. This is a cheap price on the Red Sox at home and I'll jump on it. 10* Boston |
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04-10-17 | Reds v. Pirates -140 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just read how the Pirates' Clint Hurdle is currently the odds on favorite to the first manager fired this season. Why would that be? I expect the Bucs to show improvement here in 2017 and they just swept the Braves over the weekend here at PNC Park. Perhaps it's the team's peculiar struggles against Cincinnati that has chipped away at Hurdle's support? The Bucs were just 10-9 head to head against the Reds last season and actually have a losing record against them the L2 seasons. Cincy has obviously been one of the worst teams in baseball during this time, so the fact Pittsburgh hasn't been able to take advantage of that is certainly disappointing. But I believe they will here in what should be a relatively easy game and series. Now the Reds did win yday, 8-0 in St. Louis, and have started 4-2. They took two of three from both the Phillies and Cardinals and have shockingly delivered a trifecta of shutouts over the L5 games. This from the team that gave up - by far - the most runs in the entire National League a season ago. Coming into 2017, they were thought to be in a "dogfight" w/ the Padres to see who would finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit. Pitching tonight will be the author of one of those three shutouts, Brandon Finnegan, whose was arguably the most impressive. He threw seven innings of one-hit ball against the Phillies last Wednesday, finishing w/ 9 K's. However, I would not expect that kind of success from him on a regular basis. When he faced Pittsburgh last September, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up five runs. The Bucs counter here w/ Tyler Glasnow, who will be making his season debut. It's not as if the Reds hit well last week in Philadelphia (.215 team BA), so I look for a quality start from Glasnow. He should also get ample support from an offense that scored five or more runs in all three games vs. Atlanta. Also, let's not forget just how bad Cincinnati's bullpen was last year. It's only a matter of time before that group starts melting down again. I think that all things considered, this is a pretty cheap price to go against a team that lost 94 games a year ago, especially on the road. 10* Pittsburgh |
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04-10-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -136 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:35 ET): Finding these teams at opposite ends of the NL West spectrum certainly is no surprise, but the respective placements certainly aren't what was expected. Arizona, coming off a terrible 93-loss season in which it was outscored by 138 runs, has opened 6-1. Meanwhile, perennial pennant contenders San Francisco find themselves at 2-5 and in last place. These disparate record of course include the D'backs taking three of four last week at Chase Field. They got to stay home over the weekend where the shockingly swept Cleveland. The Giants, who have yet to play a home game, avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep w/ a 5-3 win in San Diego Sunday. I now look for them to find sustained success as the scene shifts to their pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park. This afternoon's pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker vs. Matt Moore is a rematch from last Wednesday's 8-6 win by Arizona. Moore was hit hard, allowing eight hits in 5 1/3 IP, five of them doubles. But three of the six runs allowed were of the unearned variety. Walker didn't exactly pitch well either for the D'backs as he gave up four runs on seven hits. Of the two, I believe Moore is the more likely to improve here. He was basically undone by one bad inning last week and remember this is a more pitcher friendly park. Moore improved both his ERA and strikeout numbers after coming over from Tampa Bay last year. He set career bests in starts & innings pitched in 2016. As for Walker, he allowed runs in three of his six innings of work last week and struggled to put up decent numbers when he was w/ Seattle, another team that plays in a pitcher friendly park. The Giants offense has been somewhat of a disaster thus far, particularly their outfielders. The LF position entered yday's game at 0 for 22 w/ 11 K's. That's why Melvin Upton, Jr was signed. It can't get any worse, so expect improved production there. Also, the bullpen cost the team three games in the first week. Two of those were against the D'backs, both games seeing them blow three run leads. So don't be too fooled about Arizona taking three of those four games. This is their best start in franchise history, so expect them to fall off very shortly. Of the two, the Giants have been much better in day games over the L3 seasons. 8* San Francisco |
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04-09-17 | Dodgers -121 v. Rockies | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Colorado has taken the first two of this three game set, so that begats the question: is this team for real? Some (not me) feel this can be somewhat of a darkhorse in the National League this season. They've opened 5-1 and what's surprising is that their last three wins have all come w/o much offense. The lineup has never been a question w/ this team, but the pitching has. Shockingly, they've limited the Dodgers to just three runs so far here at Coors Field, but I believe that's about to change. Sunday's starter Tyler Anderson was a very fortunate winner in his first start as he gave up five runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 IP last Tuesday in Milwaukee. Give me Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers in this one. Anderson is a good ground-ball pitcher and has a 1.83 career ERA vs. the Dodgers. But it's still a limited sample size w/ him and he certainly did not look good in his first start of 2017. It's also promising that the Dodgers have averaged a healthy 8.3 runs in three days games so far. Following a loss, they remain 85-64 the L3 seasons, so it was surprising to see them fall yday, especially w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The Rockies became the first team to EVER hit B2B home runs off the Dodgers' ace and that proved to be the difference in the game. But lost in the excitement of the Rockies' pitching prowess is the fact they have scored only nine runs total the previous four games. They had scored just five in three games prior to yday's 4-2 win. Maeda was the only Dodgers starter to drop a game in the last series, but that was hardly all his fault as the offense was shut out. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado (1.93 ERA in four starts) and while Coors Field is hardly a "friendly" environment, it's not as if Dodger pitching has struggled so far here (aside from Kershaw allowing the B2B HR's). The Dodgers' bullpen has also been sharp so far, allowing only two runs in 18+ IP. The Rockies' on base percentage thus far is only .318. I'll call for LA to avoid the sweep here. 8* LA Dodgers |
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04-09-17 | A's v. Rangers -108 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
10* Texas (3:05 ET): Like many in the analytics community, I earmarked the Rangers as a pretty clear "regression" team for 2017. After all, last year they somehow won 95 games despite outscoring their opponents by a mere EIGHT runs! I played against them in the Cleveland series, which saw them get swept at home. Friday brought the first win of the season, 10-5 over Oakland, but then yday the reigning AL West Champs suffered a somewhat shocking 6-1 loss to the A's despite the presence of Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish was outdueled by Kendall Graveman, who took a no-hit bit into the seventh. I expect more offense today, particular from the home side, who I believe will win the series. Oakland has both struggled against lefties and in day games the previous two seasons. When I played against the Rangers in that first series w/ Cleveland, the pitcher I targeted was Martin Perez. He actually pitched relatively well though, only allowing three runs over six innings. His career numbers against Oakland (5.16 ERA) may not be sharp, but the last time he faced them (last August), he held them to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. The A's have surprised me by scoring 16 runs total the L3 games, but I don't envision seeing that kind of offensive production from them over the course of the season. The top of the their order remains a major question mark as original leadoff man Rajai Davis has been hideous so far (.167) and his replacement, Marcus Semien, hasn't been much better (.235) despite drawing a team-high six walks. For the first time in his career Sean Manaea opened the year on a big-league roster. But that's more a reflection on the current state of the Oakland roster than Manaea's actual skill set. Today's starter gave up four runs in his 1st outing of 2017 and has a 4.18 career ERA vs Texas. I think it's only a matter of time before this Rangers' offense gets going. Carlos Gomez, Shin Soo-Choo and Delino DeShields have all demonstrated an ability to get on base while Nomar Mazara is also certainly giving a lot of production. As firm as I am in my belief that Texas will regress from last year, they are still a whole heck of a lot better than an A's team I project for last place in the division. 10* Texas |
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04-08-17 | Royals v. Astros -175 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:10 ET): After a 3-0 start, the Astros looked every bit of the World Series contender that many, myself included, thought them to be. But they've now dropped B2B games, including the series opener to the Royals last night. Offense has been a bit of an issue for the presumed AL West favorites thus far as four of the five games have seen them held to three runs or fewer (they scored only 1 run last night). The one exception was an extra inning game that saw them win on a walk-off homer. But fortunately for tonight, they have ace Dallas Keuchel on the bump. Keuchel has always excelled here at Minute Maid Park, including the season opener on Monday where I backed him and he held Seattle to just two hits over seven scoreless innings. I look for more of that here against a Royals team I don't have much respect for. Kansas City's season did not start well. They were swept in Minnesota, a team that lost 100+ games last year. Two years removed from winning the World Series, it would appear that the Royals' championship window has closed. They are significantly weaker in all aspects from LY's team that finished .500, but was outscored by 31 runs. The starting rotation was hit by the tragic passing of Yordano Ventura. The bullpen is no longer what it once was and a lineup that could once get on base w/ the best of 'em has lost key pieces as well. Danny Duffy starts tonight for KC. While the bullpen was to blame for the team losing his 1st start, I expect Duffy to regress from LY when he went 12-3 in 26 starts. While he didn't drop a single decision at home (7-0), he was only 5-3 on the road. Also, he did not finish strong, going 1-6 (TSR) his L7 starts w/ a 6.37 ERA and 1.585 WHIP. He has a 4.94 ERA in four career starts in Houston. Meanwhile, Keuchel is just two years removed from a 16-0 record here at Minute Maid Park. It's not as if the Royals hit the cover off the ball in their first series as they managed only five runs in the three games. With neither team hitting well in the early going, this one will be largely dependent on the starters and that's a big edge to the Astros. If it goes the respective bullpens, they have the edge there as well. 10* Houston |
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04-08-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -115 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): Twenty one games seperated these two American League East rivals in the standings last season. For 2017, the projections are for them to be a lot closer. Toronto lost several key pieces from last year's Wild Card team, David Price and Edwin Encarnacion chief among them, and is thus likely to regress closer to .500. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is a team that many (myself included) have tabbed as one of the most improved teams in baseball. They were nowhere near as bad as the record showed LY. What happened was that they were a MLB-worst 13-26 in one-run games. Improvement has already started to take hold as they're 3-2 so far. I was on them in both wins over the Yankees and off last night's 10-8 win, I'll throw my support behind them again here. This will be the second time Chris Archer is getting the baseball this season. I backed him in the Rays' season opener Sunday as he held the Yanks to just two runs over seven innings. He also got plenty of support w/ his lineup chasing Masahiro Tanaka from the game early. In my analysis for that game, I was pretty clear that I thought Archer was in line for a bounce back season after finishing LY at -15.6 units (worst in MLB!). Archer's skill set is still strong as he exhibited against Sunday. His 2nd half LY was far better than the 1st and improvement is only natural after a career-worst year in terms of record and ERA. But remember, despite a 3-10 record at home last season, his ERA was 2.65. The culprit was the worst run support in MLB. Archer certainly hasn't needed much run support in the past vs. Toronto, whom he's held to 2 ER in 10 of 11 starts. Opposing Archer here will be Aaron Sanchez. This will be the latter's season debut and he's looking to build off a strong 2016. But unlike Archer, I've earmarkd Sanchez for regression. He has pitched well in the past vs. the Rays, but the sample size is relatively small. Also, he's going to be leaned on heavily here after the Jays bullpen was called into action early yday due to a disastrous start from Francisco Liriano. Sanchez finished w/ a 16-2 record LY, but he was fortunate to do so as he posted a 4.14 ERA over his L7 starts. A 9-1 road record is unlikely to be repeated. 10* Tampa Bay |
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04-08-17 | Red Sox +101 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox and Tigers played back and forth affair yday afternoon here at Comerica Park. The opener of this three-game set saw Detroit initially take a 4-0 lead, only to give it all away in the top of the eighth (trailed 5-4) and then reclaim the advantage in the bottom half of the frame. I was on Boston and while they came up short, I'll back them again as they're the better team and certainly a value at this price. I was certainly shocked to see Michael Fulmer hold the Boston bats in check Friday. Needless to say, I don't believe today's starter for the Tigers (Jordan Zimmerman) will be able to do the same. Yes, the flu has ravaged the Red Sox lineup, but even so, they're the better team here. They had the chance to win yday; today they get the job done. Starting here for the visitors will be Eduardo Rodriguez. He posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 14 starts after the All-Star Break last season. He has faced the Tigers twice previously and posted a 2.92 ERA. Something worth noting is that the Tigers' lineup has been outhit in every game thus far. They've certainly made the most of the hits they have gotten, scoring a total of 14 runs off 18 hits. Of course, a key has also been drawing a ton of walks. Through three games, Tigers' hitters have drawn a total of 19 free passes. That number is pretty incredible. Fortunately, Rodriguez generally exhibited good control last year. I feel that the Tigers' offense is due for a "off day" at the plate here. Boston's offense will see Jordan Zimmerman. After a strong April last year, Zimmerman fell apart and finished w/ a 4.97 ERA. He has a 6.06 career ERA vs. the Red Sox. Yesterday was Boston's first loss remember. They allowed twice as many runs as they did in the first two games combined vs. Pittsburgh. Earlier I mentioned the flu bug that has swept through the Red Sox clubhouse. Well, Zimmerman was also sick earlier in the week. Tigers' hitters struggled the last time they saw a southpaw and should again here. 8* Boston |
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04-07-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -163 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Pardon the terrible pun, but I belive the Redbirds are flying a little bit under the radar entering 2017. In terms of expectations, I can't remember the last time they were this low. To be clear, "low" still means an above .500 finish, but w/ the Cubs ascension to the mountain top last year, St. Louis has become almost an afterthought in the NL Central. But I certainly believe this can be a Wild Card team as they're just two years removed from winning 100 games. They outscored opponents by 67 runs last season and that was w/ the pitching staff regressing. In terms of opponent, this weekend represents a massive drop in class as they go from facing the Cubs to the Reds. Cincinnati is probably the second worst team in all of baseball (San Diego) and I put little to no stock into the fact they were able to go 2-1 in their first series, which was against Philadelphia. The Cards played the Cubs tough for three games. They took the season opener and then lost 2-1 on Monday. Yesterday's game saw them jump out to a 3-0 lead after one inning, but a four-run seventh decided things and the Cubs won 6-4. Mike Leake gets the baseball tonight, looking to rebound from a subpar 2016, which included two rough starts against the Reds, his former team. But, by all accounts, Leake looked a lot better in the spring. The Cincinnati lineup he'll face here is far from formidable outside of Joey Votta. After scoring only five runs in the first two games, the Reds busted loose for seven in yday's win, but it was an unlikely source that provided the difference in the game. Relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen was the one who gave his team the lead for good w/ a solo HR in the sixth. As you might guess, this is not a deep team and there's a lot of replacement level talent on hand. Cincinnati was bailed out by its bullpen yday as starter Rookie Davis (who is a rookie!) was not good. But I don't think Reds' fans should be counting on their relief pitching this season. Last year, this group was a disaster, posting the highest non-Colorado ERA in all of baseball while also giving up the most runs. I don't have much faith in tonight's rookie starter Amir Garrett against a Cardinals lineup that was quite productive last season. Garrett is also a southpaw and St. Louis typically hits those quite well. This is a relatively cheap price to go against one of the worst teams in baseball, especially on the road. 8* St. Louis |
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04-07-17 | Cubs -156 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The defending World Series Champs lost on Opening Day, but that was no reason to panic as they rebounded to take two from St. Louis. They stay on the road this weekend to take on another division rival, this one thought to be far less formidable. Milwaukee has opened its season by dropping three of four (at home) to Colorado, so even though it's still April, I'm a bit surprised that the ML isn't higher here. The Brew Crew actually gave the Cubbies a little bit of trouble in 2016, going 8-11 (+3.3 units) head to head, but my view is that this series - and specifically tonight's series opener - is likely to go Chicago's way. The Cubs' offense finally woke up in the top of the seventh yday, turning a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. That score ended up being the final as the offense nearly matched its production from the first two games combined in that one inning. Kris Bryant has started the year 0 for 13, but it's only a matter of time before that gets turned around. How about here against the Brewers' Jimmy Nelson, who finished last year by going 3-13 w/ a 5.79 ERA his final 21 starts. Cactus League play didn't go much better for Nelson as he turned in a 4.58 ERA in five appearances. While all three losses to Colorado were close, the Brewers' bullpen was hardly stellar, posting a 1.530 WHIP in the opening series. Nelson is 1-6 in 10 career starts vs. the Cubs. Though this game takes place in Miller Park, expect the Cubs to enjoy significant fan support as their fanbase is not shy about going up I-94 and turning this place into "Wrigley North." That's what happens when one franchise is enjoying its peak years and the other is downtrodden. One player unfamiliar w/ the surroundings will be Cubs starter Brett Anderson, who came over from the Dodgers in the offseason. He missed virtually all of last year w/ a back injury. But Anderson represents a great "buy low" move by the Cubs front office as their #5 starter. Two years ago, he led all of baseball w/ a 67% groundball rate. Milwaukee was held to just one run yday on five hits and advanced only three runners into scoring position the entire game. This should be an easy one for the Cubbies. 8* Chi Cubs |
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04-07-17 | Royals v. Astros -169 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -169 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros missed out on a chance to start the year 4-0, losing to the Mariners last night 4-2. They were oh so close to the sweep, but after holding Seattle hitters to 1 for 27 w/ RISP, the game was decided in the top of the ninth as the road team scored twice. Still, many (myself included) consider this to be a legit World Series contender and I think they should bounce back rather easily tonight against the Royals. Two years ago, these teams met in the playoffs w/ KC winning in rather memorable fashion. They would, of course, go on to win the World Series. But much has changed since that time, primarily w/ the Royals. This was not a good team last year (-31 run differential) and they were just swept by the Twins to start the year. I look for Houston to roll here. While I didn't play yday's game, the Astros' first three games all led to a winning ticket for myself. The first two games, I took them. I had the Under Wednesday. For the series, the pitching staff held Seattle to a total of just eight runs and remember two of those came in the ninth yday. Also consider that Wednesday's game went 13 innings. This promises to be a strong pitching staff - whether you're talking the starting rotation or the bullpen. Getting the baseball tonight will be Michael Fiers. Likely to be a long reliever once Colin McHugh returns from the disabled list, Fiers is nevertheless a solid option here. His strikeout numbers were down last year, but KC just whiffed 19 times in the L2 games and managed only seven runs total in the first series against a Twins' pitching staff most would regard as one of the worst in all of baseball. So I expect Fiers to pitch well tonight. The Royals appear to be in a lot of trouble. I played against them yesterday as they managed their highest scoring output thus far, but that was still only three runs. They were outscored in the first two games 16-2. Again, that was against a Twins team that lost 100+ games LY. In yday's analysis, I noted that this team was very fortunate to finish .500 last year given the aforementioned run differential. They enter 2017 weaker in every single aspect of the game. Starter Jason Vargas made only three starts last year as he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Regardless of how he performs here, the once mighty KC bullpen has become a major issue as it was responsible for allowing 14 runs in the Twins series. With the offense also scuffling, right now KC is a clear "play against" for me, especially when facing one of the best teams in baseball. 8* Houston |
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04-07-17 | Red Sox +110 v. Tigers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
10* Boston (1:05 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate for either of these teams in their respective first series of the season. But the weather proved to be all that could stop the Red Sox as they took both games they played against Pittsburgh (yesterday postponed). Meanwhile, the Tigers had to settle for a split in Chicago after losing yday in humiliating fashion 11-2. Two of the scheduled four games in that series were not played (Monday, Weds). Boston is of course projected to be one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not all of MLB, while Detroit is likely to be spending its year looking up at Cleveland w/ the rest of the AL Central. That makes the visitors look really attractive at this price, especially w/ my belief that today's Tigers' starter (Michael Fulmer) is due to regress big-time here in 2017. Fulmer finished in the top 10 in units earned last season at +13.2. But that was thanks in large part to the team going 8-0 in games where he did NOT factor into the decision. He won Rookie of the Year due to a 3.06 ERA and 1.119 WHIP, but skill-sets (specifically strikeout rate) indicate his ERA probably should have been a full-point higher. Here, he'll have to deal w/ what was the most productive offense in all of baseball last season. Not only were the Red Sox #1 in runs scored in 2016, they were #1 in on base percentage as well. Fulmer faced them twice and ironically it was the start here at home that marked his worst of the entire year. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 and the Tigers lost 10-2. Detroit certainly didn't look good yday afternoon in an 11-2 loss to the lowly White Sox. While starter Matthew Boyd obviously didn't fare well, neither did the Tigers hitters, who managed just four hits for the game. Boston won a pair of low-scoring games over Pittsburgh, including 3-0 in 12 innings Wednesday, and I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before their offense breaks out. Starter Steven Wright was solid last year w/ a 3.33 ERA in 24 starts. Counterpart Fulmer has admitted to not having any experience pitching in cold temperatures and I believe that will lead to the Tigers dropping their home opener. 10* Boston |
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04-06-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -158 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -158 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Washington (4:05 ET): The Nats are going for a sweep here. I don't think that result would surprise anyone considering the respective states of these two NL East foes. Washington comes in favored to repeat as division champs while Miami is still trying to pick up the pieces following the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. The first two games of this series have seen the Marlins remain fairly competitive, but I'm definitely surprised that the Nats aren't in a higher price range. The passing of Fernandez obviously leaves a massive and unfillable void in the Marlins' starting rotation and depth will be an issue. We see that here w/ them having to trot out Tom Koehler in the third game of the year, opposite Washington's Gio Gonzalez. This should be an easy one for the home team. Miami blew its chance to steal a game in this series yesterday. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but after that didn't do much. It was a 5-2 game (in favor of the Nats) after four innings and the Marlins didn't score again until the eighth. I'd be surprised if the road team got the lead at all here today. Sure, Gonzalez is coming off a career-worst season in terms of ERA. But he did well in his lone start vs. Miami, allowing just a pair of unearned runs in a 5-3 win over Koehler. The Marlins struck out 10 times yday and aside from the first inning, the bats were pretty silent. Koehler has not done well in the past against Washington, posting a 4.50 ERA in five career starts. He is coming off a 9-13 season where his ERA was 4.33. A real problem for him here will be Bryce Harper. In 32 career at-bats vs. Koehler, Harper has hit six home runs. Another positive sign out of the Nats' lineup is Ryan Zimmerman, who is off to a .427 start after hitting a career-worst .218 last year. Matt Wieters also collected three hits yday. Going back to the end of last year, Miami has lost four straight times in this park. 8* Washington |
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04-06-17 | Royals v. Twins -118 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The consensus on the Royals coming into the year was that not only has the "championship window" closed, but the club simply isn't very good anymore. Their first two games have certainly done nothing to dispel that notion. They've been outscored 16-2 (losses of 7-1 and 9-1) by a Twins team that lost 100+ games in 2016. Literally, no aspect of the game has gone well for KC. Their pitching staff has been a disaster, issuing 16 walks. Even the once mighty bullpen has fallen as Royals relievers are responsible for 12 of the 16 runs allowed. Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen has been simply lights out. They've yet to allow a single run and yesterday saw them hold the Royals w/o a hit after the sixth inning. I'll call for the sweep here. The concern w/ Minnesota is always their poor starting pitching. Year after year, this staff consistently ranks among the very worst in strikeout rate. But through two games against the Royals, they've been able to induce 13 K's including nine yday. Kyle Gibson goes this afternoon. He did not have a great 2016 by any means w/ a 1-8 record here at Target Field. But I expect improvement here. It's not like the Royals are hitting well right now. Gibson's final start of '16 was against KC and he struck out eight in a 7-6 Twins' win. Being a righty he should fare well against the Royals' left-handed hitters, who were a collective 1 of 14 at the plate yday. Acquired in the offseason, catcher Jason Castro is an upgrade behind the plate in terms of pitch framing. As detailed above, we should also be in good hands w/ the Minnesota bullpen. One aspect of the Twins that I have no concern over is the offense. They've scored 16 runs in two games, which is a carryover from last year's strong effort at the plate. Despite the terrible record, the Twins scored their most runs in a season since 2010. There is a ton of young talent here, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton chief amont them. So I'll call for Royals starter Jason Hammel to struggle this afternoon. Last year, Hammel was far worse on the road than he was at Kauffman Stadium w/ his ERA jumping nearly three full points. Remember that the Royals were very lucky to finish at .500 LY as they were outscored by 30+ runs. Their days of dominating the Twins are over. 10* Minnesota |
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04-05-17 | Yankees v. Rays +113 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 113 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The market seems to have really shifted against the Rays here following a 5-0 loss last night to the Yankees. But let's not forget that it was TB that took the season opener on Sunday (I was on 'em!), knocking around Masahiro Tanaka en route to a 7-3 triumph. I'm back on the home side again today as they once again find themselves in a quite favorable price range. As I stated in my analysis Sunday, the Rays should be among the most improved clubs in the A.L this year, if not all of baseball. They were far better than last year's record, which was a byproduct of a league worst 13-27 mark in one run games. Meanwhile, despite having some nice young pieces such as Gary Sanchez, the Yankees remain an old team that is as overvalued as ever. The Yankees, in sharp contrast to Tampa Bay, went 24-12 in one-run contests last year. Only Texas, who was a historically great 36-11 in such affairs, could claim to be "luckier" in 2016. The disparate records in one-run games is why the Yanks finished 16 games ahead of the Rays in the standings last year. But note that the respective run differentials were pretty similar! A couple of home runs, one from a very unlikely contributor (5'7" Ronald Torreyes), were the key yday. The bullpen also pitched five scoreless frames. But w/o Andrew Miller, I expect Pinstripe relievers to be not as effective this year as they were last. The bottom of the batting order won't be as prolific today either. Offense was a problem for Tampa Bay all of last year and that reared its ugly head in last night's shutout loss. But I'll call for a bounce back at the plate tonight as they face Michael Pineda, who was an ugly 4.78 career ERA here at Tropicana Field. I was surprised that Rays skipper Kevin Cash shuffled the lineup so much yday. Starting here for the home team will be Alex Cobb, who because of injury was limited to only five starts last year. But I've always liked him and he's typically had New York's number w/ a 2.91 ERA in 12 career starts. That number was significantly lower before a poor outing last year. Keep in mind that yday was only the Yanks 15th shutout win in the L3 years. 10* Tampa Bay |
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04-04-17 | Mariners v. Astros -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): I'll back the Astros for a second night in a row here. Last night brought a 3-0 win over Seattle as starter Dallas Keuchel dominated from the get-go. The Mariners finished w/ only three hits and tonight will go up against Lance McCullers, who despite injuries still managed to post a 3.22 ERA in 14 starts last year. He'll be opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a down year in 2016. In yday's analysis, I think I made it pretty clear that the Astros are poised to be one of the better teams in all of baseball. I'm sticking w/ that assertion here tonight and calling for them to make it two in a row over their AL West rival. Houston didn't even do much offensively yday, not they needed to. But expect this offense to be better this year w/ six new faces in the everyday lineup, most of which I consider to be positive additions. The key will be a projected increase in on base percentage thanks to Nori Aoki. Here, they should be in line for a big day at the plate if Iwakuma's Spring Training performance was any indication of things to come. He was just dreadful in Grapefruit League action, posting a 7.13 ERA in six starts and opponents hit . 311 against him. Those are very ugly numbers obviously and as is the case w/ Felix Hernandez (discussed in yday's analysis), Iwakuma is a pitcher I'd expect to see start to fall off. McCullers hardly had a good Spring either, but that was attributable to him using a changeup more, a pitch he didn't go to often in 2016. Houston is now 12-8 since the start of last season and 24-15 against them the L3 seasons.They are being badly undervalued here at home. They are 98-67 here at Minute Maid Park the L3 seasons and that includes a 35-24 mark when priced in the -125 to -150 range. 8* Houston |
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04-04-17 | Indians -149 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians won on Opening Day, 8-5 here in Texas, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth. Overall, they scored five runs total across the final three frames. The defending AL Champs got a boost from their big offseason acquisition, Edwin Encarnacion, who homered in the eighth to tie things up. Starter Corey Kluber wasn't particularly impressive as he allowed three home runs, but the bullpen got the job done, particularly Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, who combined to strike out the final five Texas batters. Tonight, it's Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Tribe and I expect him to help make it two in a row over the Rangers. Carrasco did not pitch at all last year in the postseason. Late in the reg season, he took a line drive and broke his right hand. While Carrasco doesn't have great career marks when facing Texas, this is a pitcher who has a very high strikeout rate and I expect him to pitch well tonight. The Indians' offense scoring eight times last night was certainly a good sign as was the performance by the bullpen. There is no denying that this is one of the top teams in the entire AL entering the year. On paper, this a better team than the one who took the Cubs to seven games in LY's World Series. All things considered, it was a pretty brutal loss for the Rangers yday. They led 5-1, got a strong effort from starter Yu Darvish, had their two best relievers both work and Rougned Odor homered twice. Yet they still couldn't get the job done, which is a bad sign. Of course, this team was quite the overachiever last season. They pulled off the somewhat shocking feat of winning 95 games despite outscoring opponents by only eight runs. Thus, regression (in terms of wins and losses) is to be expected in 2017. Pitching for the home team today will be Martin Perez. He's off a career year and thus he should regress individually as well. Last year marked a career high in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts. His career ERA vs. Cleveland is a woeful 12.46. Indians make it two in a row here in Arlington to open the season. 8* Cleveland |
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04-03-17 | Mariners v. Astros -148 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Look for the Astros to be strong team in 2017. Like most, I have them favored to win the AL West. Last year was a disappointment as the team finished third in the division at 84-78. The year previous saw them make the playoffs. Improvement for this year starts w/ ace Dallas Keuchel, who was -8.8 units last year. The year previous he took home the Cy Young and here at Minute Maid Park was downright unbeatable. Now most will look at this line and be enticed by the juicy price on Felix Hernandez, which is almost unheard of. But don't be shocked if this is the year King Felix falls off a bit. There are now a ton of new faces in the Astros' everyday lineup, six to be exact. The majority of them will help aid the team's one true offensive deficiency, on base percentage. In particular, Nori Aoki (career .353 OBP) will be a boon. I don't think there will be a more improved offense in the big leagues. Keuchel was bothered by shoulder issues last year and missed the final month. Again, this was the Cy Young winner in 2015 which included a 16-0 record at home (1.45 ERA, 0.902 WHIP). He actually still fared well against Seattle though last season, holding them to just four runs across 13 IP. The Astros had a winning record overall vs. the M's in '16, going 11-8. Behind Keuchel will be one of the AL's better bullpen. Quietly, Hernandez really fell off last year for Seattle. His 7.2 K's per nine innings rate was the lowest of his career and is a very troubling sign. Last year's 3.82 ERA was his highest in nine seasons. Here's something you probably did not know. The Mariners were the oldest team in baseball last year. This will eventually have an effect on the defense. Overall, I have Seattle regressing a bit this year. Perhaps they'll still be in Wild Card contention, but when all is said and done, they'll be looking up at Houston in the AL West standings. 8* Houston |
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04-02-17 | Yankees v. Rays -101 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays are a club earmarked for improvement in 2017. Last year saw them finish 68-94 and in the AL East cellar. But they were better than that record. A run differential of -41 was almost identical to the -37 posted by the .500 Royals. What sunk TB last season (among other things) was an unfortunate 13-27 record in one-run games. I'd expect that record to improve dramatically this year and thus finishing around .500 is a distinct possibility here. The Yankees have been overachieving the last few years, but I would not be shocked to see them finally finish with a losing record. The home team is a good price at "plus money" at Tropicana Field this afternoon. Opening Day Starter Chris Archer should also be a big part of this year's Rays resurgence. He went 9-19 last year (10-23 TSR) and actually wound up being the biggest money-burning starter in all of baseball at -15.6 units. But he pitched better than the record and some of the peripheral numbers show. His second half was far better than the first (3.25 ERA, 103-19 KW rate). Coming off a career-worst year (in terms of record & ERA), it's only natural to expect a bounce back here. Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier being back is also huge, particularly in the field. When the former Gold Glover was in the lineup last season, the Rays basically played .500 ball. The Yankees remain an older team. Three times in the last four years they have finished above .500 despite a negative run differential. The emergence of Gary Sanchez was huge in the second half, but I don't think he will necessarily be able to maintain that pace this season. Look for the absence of Andrew Miller to hurt the pen as well. Masahiro Tanaka starts today and has never lost to the Rays in eight career starts. While that sounds great, I expect Tanaka to regress some in 2017. The Yankees have also lost five years in a row on Opening Day. 8* Tampa Bay |
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11-02-16 | Cubs v. Indians +109 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): I'm about to make a very dangerous pivot in this year's World Series. After saying all year that the Cubs would win, I'm going against them in this deciding Game 7 as I think there's simply too much value on the Indians to pass up. Corey Kluber is the key to this one as he should be the best player on the field. While this will be his second consecutive start on three days' rest, note that if needed the Cleveland bullpen (including Andrew Miller) is rested and ready. Meanwhile, I thought Cubs' manager Joe Maddon errored badly in his use of Aroldis Chapman in Game 6. Last night's game basically swung on two key plays; an Indians fielding error in the first and an Addison Russell grand slam. Home teams tend to exhibit better win probabilities when off a loss of the kind of margin we saw Cleveland on the wrong side of yday. I'm calling for the Indians to win the World Series. Before yday's game (where they were clear favorites), the Cubs were essentially a 2:1 proposition to win the WS. Now, we can get the Indians at essentially even money w/ Kluber on the hill. That's a bargain. Kluber has been remarkable in the playoffs, going 5 for 5 in terms of quality starts and allowing just 3 ER in 30 1/3 IP. Yes, all three runs allowed came in the games he was working on three days rest. But those were both still quality outings by any objective measure. Over his L7 starts, Kluber has a 6-1 TSR w/ a 1.55 ERA. The team has won 14 of his 19 starts here at Progressive Field this season. Manager Terry Francona (who has been excellent throughout this postseason) figures to have a "quick hook" if Kluber does show signs of faltering as all the key cogs in the bullpen are ready to go. Meanwhile, the Cubs are going w/ Kyle Hendricks tonight. Take him out of the Friendly Confines and he's not as effective. His ERA more than doubles. Granted that number is only 2.95, but still. The Cubs' bullpen is a far more shaky proposition right now w/ Chapman's usage. He's thrown 62 pitches the L2 games as Maddon seems afraid to turn to any other reliever. Yes, Jon Lester is an option in this one, but he'd be operating only on three days rest himself. This game is likely decided by who scores first and the fact that Hendricks has gone longer than 5 1/3 only once in four postseason starts is an issue. When I took the Cubs in Game 5, I made mention that they had not lost three straight games since the All-Star Break. Well, that's happened only three times to the Indians! 10* Cleveland |
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10-30-16 | Indians v. Cubs -220 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If I go down, I might as well go down w/ the ship. It appears as if the Indians "can do no wrong" in this year's World Series as they are now one win away from capturing what would be Cleveland's second World Championship in less than five months. Previously, the city had gone over 50 years w/o one - in any sport! Meanwhile, the Cubs are clearly gripping as their scuffling lineup has managed only seven runs in the four games so far. But five of them came in the lone win (Game 2) and they'll be facing that starting pitcher (Trevor Bauer) again as they attempt to stave off elimination. Even if they do lose the WS, I still maintain that the Cubs were the better team on paper here. I cannot see them losing all three games at Wrigley. Let's go back to my play on the Cubs in Game 4 of the NLCS. There, they were coming off B2B losses, both shutouts. But I was quick to point out the fact they'd gone 5-0 off B2B losses since a 1-8 swoon in early July. Well, as we now know, you can make that record a perfect 6-0. The Cubs have what I believe is the perfect "stopper" on the mound for this situation and that's Jon Lester. Yes, the Indians ability to run gave him trouble in the Game 1 loss. But now he's pitching at home where his TSR is 15-2 for the year. Lester has a 1.61 ERA and 0.869 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Again I'll note that theoretically Cubs pitchers should be benefiting from the fact the Cleveland lineup is w/o the DH. That lineup, even after yday, is still only batting a collective .211 its L7 games. I went against Bauer back in Game 2 and for good reason. He is still battling an issue w/ his finger after slicing it repairing a drone. In three postseason starts, Bauer has a 1.776 WHIP and has yet to even go a full five innings. That latter issue is somewhat mitigated by the Indians' outstanding bullpen, but hopefully the Cubs can get out to an early lead here. Bauer is clearly the weak link in this Indians' rotation. While one can make the case that the Cubs are overvalued tonight, that doesn't change the fact that I still think they will win. 6* Chi Cubs |
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10-29-16 | Indians v. Cubs -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Indians pulled out a somewhat improbable 1-0 victory in Game 3 (at +190 on the money line, no less!), their second shutout of the World Series and fifth overall in these playoffs (most ever). For the Cubs, it was a discouraging defeat as their last four losses have now all come via shutout fashion. But, as I pointed out in my analysis for Game 2, this team has typically done a great job at bouncing back from such defeats. They're now 7-2 in the role and 42-20 off a loss of any kind, period, this season. Even after losing last night, the Cubs remain 61-26 at Wrigley and the matchup advantages I believed them to have going into last night's game still exist tonight. By a wide margin, this was the best team in baseball all year & I just do not see them dropping B2B home games. Cleveland has to love the position it is in as they are up 2-1 in the series and get to send ace Corey Kluber to the hill. Kluber was downright incredible in Game 1 as he struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw and allowed only four hits total over six shutout innings. It marked the third time in his last four starts that Kluber didn't allow a single run. But the exception to that stretch came in Game 4 of the ALCS when he was working on three days' rest (1st time in career) as he will be here. Kluber allowed "only" 2 ER in 5 IP that day, but still, he did not look like the same pitcher. If Kluber has an Achilles' heel, it is giving up the home run ball and I would not be surprised to see the Cubs hit their first of the series here tonight. The Cubs counter w/ John Lackey, who I expect to pitch well. He's yet to go more than four innings in a postseason start thus far, but he sports a 2.62 ERA and 0.991 WHIP here at home this season. Those numbers are indicative of a TSR better than the one Lackey currently has (10-6), so he's "due." In yday's analysis, I spent a great deal of time talking about how the lack of a DH would hurt a Cleveland lineup that already struggles to score on the road. I still believe that to be true. The Indians have scored only two runs total the L2 games and have been held to just 1 in three of the last four games. This offense ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They come in batting a collective .191 the L7 games. Visiting teams are now averaging less than 3.0 rpg at Wrigley for the year. 10* Chi Cubs |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs -200 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If you believe in momentum, then you have to think that this series took a dramatic shift after Game 2, which the Cubs won 5-1. Game 3 figures to be the most lopsided matchup, on paper, of this entire World Series. The Cubs check in as roughly a 2:1 favorite behind Kyle Hendricks and the price is absolutely justified. Note Cleveland is batting a collective .183 over its L7 games and that's w/ the DH spot in the batting order. Now, they lose that spot moving to the NL park where visitor run suppression was tops in all of MLB. The Indians don't hit particularly well anyway on the road as during the regular season; they ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They face a top-flight pitcher in Game 3 tonight. Visiting teams are averaging only 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field this season. That's, by far, the lowest average in all of MLB w/ only Dodger Stadium with 0.7 rpg of that number. A big reason for that impressive number has been the performance of one Kyle Hendricks, who toes the rubber tonight in Game 3. His ERA and WHIP are 1.31 and 0.848 at home this year and the team is 12-5 in his 17 starts. He made two starts in the LCS and in 12 2/3 IP, he allowed just one run and five hits total. Both of those starts did come here at the Friendly Confines. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks has given up 3 ER or less in 27 of 33 starts this season. That includes 17 of his last 18! His WHIP is 0.796 his L3 starts overall. Clearly, I anticipate the Indians lineup struggling against him. Starting opposite Hendricks will be Josh Tomlin. He's also pitched very well of late w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. But the difference between he and Hendricks reside in the YTD numbers. Tomlin has just a 4.31 ERA for the year, although his WHIP is a more respectable 1.176. While we haven't seen one in a while, Tomlin is far more prone to a "bad" outing. Back in August, he allowed 6+ ER in four of six starts. Hendricks has never allowed that many in any start in 2016. Another key here is how the pitcher having to bat will effect the Cleveland bullpen. Tomlin has pitched only 5 and 5 2/3 IP in his two playoff starts, respectively. The Cubs are 61-25 at Wrigley this season. 6* Chi Cubs |
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10-26-16 | Cubs -148 v. Indians | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs were completely shut down by Corey Kluber last night as the 2014 Cy Young winner struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw en route to a 6-0 Indians victory. But the Cubs obviously won't be facing Kluber again here. Rather it will be Trevor Bauer, who infamously sliced his finger fixing a drone. It was an ugly situation when Bauer tried pitching in Game 3 of the ALCS as he had to exit after just two batters due to the finger bleeding profusely. As someone who had the Over in last night's game, I was shocked to see how ineffective the Cubs lineup was, though they did have their chances (seven hits). The start time for Game 2 being bumped up an hour doesn't do the visitors any favors, but I'll call for them to even this series up. Tonight is the Cubs turn to send a former Cy Young winner to the bump. That would be Jake Arrieta. While his numbers are down compared to last year, Arrieta still had a strong 2016 by any objective measure as he comes in at 18-9 w/ a 3.20 ERA and 1.090 WHIP. Now two of the last three starts have been shaky as he allowed multiple HR's for the first time since 8.29 in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers. But Arrieta rarely delivers B2B non-quality starts. In fact, that happened just once since the All-Star Break and it's only because he went just 5 2/3 IP (6 IP needed for a "quality start") while still allowing just one run in one of the pair. Over its last seven games, Cleveland is only batting .196 as a team and if you take Francisco Lindor out of the equation, things get even worse. Roberto Perez, a .196 hitter who had just three home runs in the regular season, cannot be counted on for multi-HR's again. You have to think the Cubs offense bounces back here against Bauer. I still think that the inclusion of the DH matters for them. Kyle Schwarber had one hit and one walk in his four plate appearances last night. Bauer is nowhere near as dominant as Kluber as is evident by his 4.37 ERA and 1.307 WHIP. Save for the abrupt ending to his last start, Bauer hasn't given up fewer than 3 ER in a start since 8.29 vs. Minnesota. He's given up 5 or more ER eight times since the start of July. The usage of ace reliever Andrew Miller may be limited tonight after he threw a season high 41 pitches last night. The Cubs are 41-20 off a loss this year, including 6-2 if they were shutout. 8* Chi Cubs |
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10-20-16 | Cubs -156 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): What a difference one game can make! Cubs fans were rightly getting very nervous after their team was shutout in B2B losses in Games 2 and 3. In fact, four of the seven times the Cubs have been shutout this year has come courtesy of Dodger Blue. But, as I mentioned in yday's analysis, the Cubs had not lost three in a row since an early July swoon (now 6-0 off B2B losses since then). The offense finally broke out in a 10-2 win last night and now they can head back to Wrigley up 3-2 in the series. I look for the offensive resurgence to continue at the expense of struggling LA starter Kenta Maeda, who has an atrocious 11.17 ERA and 2.585 WHIP his L3 starts. With Clayton Kershaw starting Gm 6 in Chicago, the Cubs cannot afford to drop this one. The pitching matchup here is a rematch of Game 1. That mean Jon Lester goes for the Cubs and he was very sharp in the series opener, holding the Dodgers to just one run and four hits over six innings. That one run allowed came via a solo home run. For as much criticism as the Cubs' offense has rightly taken of late, the Dodgers' lineup hasn't really been any more productive as they're batting a collective .220 the L7 games w/ just 3.7 runs per game scored. They're unlikely to turn things around here against Lester, who has allowed 1 ER or less in 10 of his last 11 starts! It certainly wasn't his fault that Gm 1 got close (manager Joe Maddon pulled him for a pinch hitter) and w/ a 0.839 WHIP his L7 starts, he should hold LA in check once again. The Cubs are 26-8 this year in all Lester starts, including 14-3 L17. Meanwhile, Maeda has been a disaster. He lasted only four innings in Game 1 after making it through just three in his lone LDS vs. the Nationals. In fact, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of his last six starts. That puts a lot of pressure on this Dodgers' bullpen. As I said in yday's analysis, I'm not overly concerned w/ the Cubs offense as they led the NL in runs scored during the regular season. This price range does not seem to be a bad value when you consider they are 15-5 this season as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range on the ML (29-10 L3 seasons). I had the Cubs winning this series, so its only logical I'd continue to back them here. 8* Chi Cubs |
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10-19-16 | Cubs -104 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): My goodness, what has happened to the mighty Cubs, specifically their offense? The vultures are starting to circle in the Windy City as the team has been shutout in B2B games. In the playoffs, the team is batting only .185! Not only have they been shutout each of the L2 games, they've actually been shutout four of the 10 times they've played the Dodgers this year. None of this sounds very good at all, especially considering this franchise's ominous history. But, I'll continue to "hang my hat" on the fact that this was the best team in baseball - by far - this year. They outscored opponents by 252 runs in the regular season for a reason. I mentioned in yday's analysis that they were outstanding off a loss (now 40-20), well, since a 1-8 stretch to start July, they are a perfect 5-0 off B2B losses. I'll stick w/ the Cubs. Veteran John Lackey will toe the rubber for the Cubs in this all-important Game 4. The team has won each of his last four starts, including one in the LDS vs. San Francisco, not to mention eight of his last 10. Only once since the All-Star Break has Lackey allowed more than 3 ER in a start (he allowed 4 vs. Milwaukee on 9.16). Though he lasted only four innings vs. SF, that was one of just three times since the start of July that he failed to make it to the sixth. He should be well-rested and ready to go here having not pitched in eight days. Though he has not faced them yet this year, Lackey has most certainly had the Dodgers number in his career; in 12 starts his ERA is 1.74 and his WHIP is 0.928. The Dodgers counter w/ Jose Urias, the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game in MLB history (20 years of age). That's a sharp contrast from Lackey, who at 37 has more career postseason starts (21) than any active pitcher. Urias faced the Cubs twice during the regular season to mixed results. He got hammered at Wrigley Field, but was pretty dominant here at home. This game being at Dodger Stadium makes it seem like it might go his way then, but I'll still side with the experience of Lackey. Prior to yday, the Cubs were 5-1 coming off a shutout loss this season. I have to think it's only a matter of time before the offense finally wakes up. 10* Chi Cubs |
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10-18-16 | Cubs -112 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): All things considered, Jake Arrieta at this price seems like a real "steal." Yes, he may not be replicating his incredible 2015 campaign, but we're still talking about a pitcher w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.087 WHIP this year. Given the scarcity of runs we typically see here at Dodger Stadium, I'd say LY's Cy Young winner is in line for a strong showing tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS . Oh by the way, the last time Arrieta pitched here, he tossed a no-hitter. The LA lineup is batting a collective .218 here in the postseason. Lost in their own masterful pitching performance Sunday night (by Clayton Kershaw) was the fact they finished the game w/ only three hits. The Cubs are an outstanding 40-19 off a loss this year. The Dodgers counter Arrieta w/ Rich Hill, who has certainly had a "short leash" thus far in the postseason. In two starts, he's lasted only seven innings total and given up five runs. I concede that he has pitched well at home since coming over in the trade from Oakland, but that's a very limited sample size (only three starts!). He has never won a postseason start. Game 2 of the LDS was particularly ugly as he allowed four runs and six hits in just 4 1/3 IP. He has never faced the Cubs in his career (he used to pitch for them). I have to think that the Cubs' potent lineup, which was second in the NL in runs scored during the regular season (trailing only Colorado, who is obviously aided by their home park) is set to break out of this slump they're in. Overall, the Cubs are simply the much better team here. They finished the regular season w/ a remarkable +252 run differential, which was more than double all but two other teams. The pitcher friendly nature of Dodger Stadium should only amplify what is an outstanding defense. A big key in looking at this series vs. the last one is that the Dodgers strike out more than the Giants do. This park is also far smaller than AT&T and w/ the Cubs' defense being the best in the bigs, that's an edge for them. Arrieta seems to have regained lost form w/ his cutter and while he may not be as dominant here as Kershaw was Sunday, I fully expect him to lead the Cubs to victory. 10* Chi Cubs |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -183 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -183 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
6* Toronto (8:05 ET): Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball right now. They're 5-0 in the playoffs and haven't dropped a game in October. Despite facing two of the best offenses in the sport (including #1 Boston), Indians pitching has now allowed just eight runs total in the postseason, including only one to the Blue Jays. The Tribe accounted for my only loss in these playoffs (Gm 3 at Boston), but I'll be going against them again here in a similar spot. Note that I have cashed Cleveland three times already in the postseason, Games 1 and 2 vs. Boston plus Game 1 of this ALCS. It's just that I believe their questionable depth in the starting rotation begins to catch up w/ them in a seven game series and their offensive numbers simply haven't been very good on the road all season long. Toronto is obviously desperate here. Down 0-2 in the series, a loss tonight would basically mean the end of their season (the '04 Red Sox remain the only team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit). Here, they'll be handing the ball to Marcus Stroman and I believe he'll lead them to victory. Stroman has not worked since the Wild Card Game where he gave up only two runs and four hits over 6 IP. He now has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his L3 starts. Shockingly, despite a very respectable 3.35 ERA and 1.186 WHIP his L7 starts, Stroman has not won a decision since August 14th vs. Houston. His very next start was against Cleveland and he recorded a no-decision despite allowing just one run in 7 1/3 IP. In two starts this year vs. the Indians, Stroman allowed only two runs (in 14 IP) and had a 15-2 KW rate. As noted above, Cleveland's offense (which has only four runs and 10 hits this series) declines on the road where they ranked 27th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 28th in OPS. Meanwhile, I expect the Blue Jays' offense to improve here at home. They average 5.0 rpg here for the season. It will help facing Trevor Bauer, who had to receive stitches for a minor cut on his finger while fixing a drone. Bauer and the team insist that won't have an effect on his Game 3 outing, and maybe they're right, but I'll focus on the fact that Bauer turned in the weakest start to date of the Cleveland rotation this postseason. He allowed two home runs in a 4-3 win over Boston in Game 1 of the LDS and despite a 4.91 ERA his L3 outings, his TSR is still 3-0. That record is definitely due to regress, especially considering a 6.33 ERA and 1.359 WHIP his L7 outings. He's allowed at least 3 ER in all seven of those starts. 6* Toronto |
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10-15-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs -185 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Already heavily favored, the NLCS clearly lines up well for the Cubs. It wasn't easy, but they dispatched of the Giants on Tuesday while the Dodgers had to go to a deciding fifth game in D.C. vs. the Nats. Not only that, but to win this series clinching game, LA had to call Clayton Kershaw into "emergency" duty, meaning he may not even pitch again until Game 3. Though I was on them and they did come through, the Dodgers are not a particularly good road team. Their record outside of Dodger Stadium remains below .500. Of particular concern here is that five of the seven regular season meetings vs. the Cubs saw the offense get held to three runs or fewer. It would be a stunner to me if the Cubs, clearly the best team in baseball, lost this game. The Cubs have their rotation all lined up for this series and that means Jon Lester will go tonight in Game 1. I played him, successfully I might add, in the opener of the series w/ the Giants. While not easy, Lester certainly did his job in the 1-0 victory. He held San Francisco to just five hits in 8 IP, improving his TSR here at Wrigley to 14-2. He has a filthy 1.62 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in those 16 outings. As I'll run though later; it would appear as if the Cubs have a massive edge in starting pitching in tonight's matchup. Not that they need it; this team lapped the field in terms of run differential during the regular season (+252!) and they are 59-24 in all games played at the Friendly Confines this year. They are also 61-31 in night games. Meanwhile, Dodgers Game 1 starter Kenta Maeda is hardly in top form right now. He comes in w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all team losses. Note that in his last two starts, which have spanned just 5 2/3 innings, Maeda has allowed the same number of runs that Lester has in his last TEN starts combined. Yes, take away one bad start at the end of the regular season and Lester has now allowed 1 or 0 ER in 9 of his L10 starts overall. Visiting teams score fewer runs per game at Wrigley than any other venue in the game. That's certainly not a good thing for a Dodgers' offense that comes in batting only .197 over its last seven games. Also, LA has been just awful this year against lefties (Lester is a southpaw) w/ a .213/.290/.332 regular-season slash line. Game 1 and likely the entire series for that matter, shape up as complete mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs |
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10-14-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians -131 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Despite not having homefield advantage, Toronto is the favorite to win the series. But it is Cleveland that is favored to take Game 1, due in large part to the fact they'll be sending Corey Kluber to the mound. Neither of these clubs have lost a game here in October as both swept their respective LDS. I'm not necessarily shocked that either advanced, but doing so in such dominant fashion was a bit eye-opening. I view this first game of the series as a "must-win" for Cleveland as they'll probably need to win all of Kluber's starts in this series to have a chance to pull what would be a fairly "minor" upset. They did win the season series from Toronto, 4-3. Some will want to focus in on the fact the Jays actually outscored the Tribe in those seven games, but that's owed in large part to one 17-1 victory where Cleveland was short-handed following a 19-inning marathon game the day before. Kluber was absolutely dominant in his LDS start vs. Boston, throwing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. In handicapping this series, one must take into account that the Red Sox were a stronger offensive team (#1 in MLB in runs scored) than the Blue Jays all year long. Cleveland pitching held Boston to just seven runs in the three games, which was remarkable. Defensively, the Indians' infield hardly let anything get through. I'd make a case that Cleveland is the top defensive team in the American League. That makes Kluber's job all the more easy, not that he needs the help. The 2014 Cy Young winner comes in w/ a 19-9 record in 33 starts (21-12 TSR) and a 1.054 WHIP. He's allowed more than 3 ER only twice since the All-Star Break. Here at home, the team has won 12 of his 17 starts this year. Cleveland not only loves playing at home (where they are 55-28), but also on Fridays (22-5 this season!). I'd be a little concerned over Toronto's poor 1-7 record this season as a ML dog of +125 to +150 (12-32 in that price range L3 seasons). Cleveland is 83-47 when favored on the ML this year. They face Marco Estrada here. While his recent numbers are quite impressive (0.787 WHIP L3 starts), he's a bit more of a flyball pitcher and that will not serve him well here at hitter-friendly Progressive Field. Remember what I said in my analysis of Games 1 & 2 of the Boston series. Cleveland was the third highest scoring team at home during the regular season (5.6 rpg), trailing only Colorado and Boston. Another advantage they will enjoy here is the bullpen. Toronto blew a lot of games in the ninth inning during the regular season and no longer have the services of Joaquin Benoit. 8* Cleveland |
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10-10-16 | Indians v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
10* Boston (6:05 ET): Note: My Game 3 analysis remains unchanged from yday's rainout! Prior to the start of the playoffs I called for a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. Yet, I've been on Cleveland in each of the first two games of this LDS. Game 1, I took the Tribe +1.5 and them winning that game "outright" may prove to be the difference in this series. Game 2, started by Corey Kluber, was always the spot where you'd favor the Indians. With the benefit of hindsight, Boston losing the final two games of the regular season may come back to haunt them. It cost them the homefield edge in this series and possibly beyond as top seed Texas has been eliminated. That all being said, I'm backing the Red Sox here as the series shifts to Fenway Park where the team is far tougher. Boston is 9-2 this season when on a losing streak of 3+ games. I don't think the Boston offense can be kept in check for long. They paced MLB during the regular season w/ 878 runs scored. The #2 team (Cubs) was at 808. But in the first two games of this series, Red Sox hitters have really struggled at the plate. They were shockingly held to only three hits by Kluber and company in Game 2 Friday. But I fully anticipate them waking up w/ the return to Fenway. Only Colorado, who is always aided by their unusual park, scored more runs per game at home this season. Paced by a .300 team batting average, the Sox averaged 5.9 rpg at home. I realize that Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin comes in having pitched quite well over his L4 starts. But, for the season he has a 4.42 ERA. It's a bit of a similar situation w/ Clay Buchholz for Boston. His YTD numbers are not great, but he has pitched well recently. His L3 starts have seen him deliver a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. What's the difference between him and Tomlin then? Well, Buchholz will benefit from going against an offense that is very likely set to decline on Monday evening. The first two games of this series have seen Cleveland score 11 runs and hit four home runs. In my analysis, I documented how the Indians are actually the third highest scoring home team in baseball (trailing Colorado and Boston). But, on the road, the drop is severe. The Tribe ranks just 27th in rpg scored on the road while posting the second worst team batting average (.236). They are 28th in OPS (OBP + slugging) at .691. The Red Sox will not be swept. 10* Boston |
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10-09-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -183 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:30 ET): Rangers fans will desperately want to cling to the fact that LY' LDS saw Toronto lose the first two games at home, only to take the next three at their team's expense. But I do not see the script being flipped in 2016. There's no skirting around how poor the Rangers' record in home LDS games now is (1-11!) and the fact they are "up against it" having to stay alive in Rogers Centre where the host Jays should enjoy a tremendous advantage. There's also no getting around the fact that Texas is simply a very average baseball team. I've harped on this all year, but their +8 regular season run differential (were 36-11 in one-run games!) was an ominous sign for the playoff. This was a .500 team masked in "95-win clothing." Toronto's pitching has been underrated all season long. Last season, the offense carried the team. This year, they gave up the fewest number of runs in the entire American League! Aaron Sanchez was a big contributor to that pitching prowess and he gets the starting nod tonight in Game 3. He comes in w/ a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP his L3 starts and actually led the American League in ERA for the entire regular season! He allowed just 3 ER total in 19 IP those L3 starts, including a critical win over Boston. Over the L7 games, Toronto has given up an average of just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents batting a woeful .207. They've won the last five and given up just four runs total in this series. They're in real good shape here. Texas will counter w/ Colby Lewis. He has not pitched well of late (6.93 ERA, 1.694 WHIP L3 starts), nor has he pitched well against the Blue Jays in his career. In 12 career starts vs. them, he has a 6.17 ERA and that includes 5.81 in six starts here in Toronto. Furthermore, the Rangers' offense is not very good on the road. They decline to 25th in team batting average and 29th in OBP, looking at only road games. I'll call for this fortunate season of theirs to come to its official end tonight. Factoring in Games 1 and 2, the Rangers have now been outscored over the course of the season! For a frame of reference, Toronto has a YTD run differential of +104. The Jays are 9-3 L12 head to head vs. the Rangers. 6* Toronto |
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10-08-16 | Giants v. Cubs -176 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Coming into this series, I thought the Giants didn't have much of a chance, save for Game 3 when Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball. Therefore, they probably let one slip away last night as they held the Cubs to three hits, but came up short, 1-0. The San Francisco offense doing little did not surprise me. In my Game 1 analysis, I talked about how they were likely to struggle at the plate in the first two games of this series. Road teams average a MLB low 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field. The offense is not likely to pick up tonight facing Kyle Hendricks, who has a 0.857 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Go w/ the Cubs again tonight. Among the regular starters in the Cubs' rotation, Hendricks has both the lowest ERA and WHIP. As was the case w/ Lester yday, he did struggle some in his final regular season start. But we saw how Lester bounced back yday. Sticking with this theme, like Lester, he had allowed 2 ER or less in all previous starts dating back to August 1st. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year! Three of the six times he allowed that many, it was a result of unearned runs. The one time he faced the Giants, he allowed one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. In addition to the tremendous WHIP here, Hendricks also had the lowest home ERA (1.32) in all of baseball. Jeff Samardzija allowed three runs in four innings the one time he faced his former team this year. The Giants starter has a 4.03 ERA on the road this year. San Fran is now just 3-9 its L12 games here in Chicago. The Cubs are 11-4 after winning their previous game in a shutout fashion. As a road underdog of +150 to +175, the Giants are 1-5 this season and 7-17 the L3 seasons. In seven years pitching here, Samardzija posted a 3.97 ERA. 8* Chi Cubs |
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10-07-16 | Giants v. Cubs -172 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
San Francisco was your NL Wild Card Winner as they beat the Mets 3-0 on Wednesday. I had the Under, so it was an easy winner for me as well. Because it's an "even year," some will tout the Giants as having a chance here, but I simply cannot back them at Wrigley Field. They won Tuesday not because it was 2016, but because of another phenomenal postseason showing from Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner will not start again until Game 3 of this series and by then, the damage may already have been done. Johnny Cueto is a fine pitcher in his own right, but his last loss came against these Cubs, here at Wrigley Field, back on September 4th. Recent postseason experience has not been good for Cueto. Since his meltdown in the 2013 Wild Card Game at Pittsburgh (was w/ Cincinnati at the time), he's allowed 19 runs and 25 hits in just 28 1/3 IP. That's five starts. Remember that the Giants' offense failed to score a single run until the top of the ninth on Wednesday. That's not a good sign when getting set to enter Wrigley where opposing teams averaged just 3.0 rpg this year, the lowest average in all of MLB. The Cubs gave up - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball during the regular season. Starting Game 1 will be Jon Lester, who has a 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines to go along w/ a 13-2 TSR. While Lester did allow 5 ER (at Cincinnati) in his final reg season start, he had allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his previous eight turns. 8* Chi Cubs |
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10-07-16 | Red Sox v. Indians -103 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:35 ET): Turns out that I didn't even need the +1.5 last night as the Indians won Game 1, as underdogs, 5-4 over the Red Sox. Manager Terry Francona leaned heavily on two relievers - Andrew Miller and Cody Allen - to get that big win, so one would presume starter Corey Kluber is going to have to carry the load w/ the quick turnaround this afternoon. I feel that the former Cy Young winner will be up to that challenge. As far as the vaunted Boston offense goes, remember what I talked about in yday's analysis. Cleveland ranks third in all of MLB in runs per game scored at home (5.8), which is a big reason that they're now 54-28 here this season. With Kluber on the hill, the Tribe are being drastically undervalued at Progressive Field for Game 2. This Indians offense was able to get to 20-game winner Rick Porcello last night (hit 3 HR's off him in one inning), so I don't really fear David Price in this spot. Besides, Price has generally been awful in the postseason and that is putting it mildly. In eight career playoff starts, he's 0-7 w/ a 5.27 ERA. Like the team, Price somewhat sputtered at the end of the regular season as well. His last road start saw him give up six runs and 12 hits to a far less potent lineup - the Yankees. He did allow only one run and four hits at home to Toronto on Sunday, but the Red Sox still lost that game, costing them homefield advantage in this series. I realize that Boston is 9-1 this season off three consecutive losses. But this is a very good team that they're facing. Price's ERA was only 3.99 during the regular season. This is one of those rare times when Boston is NOT the better offensive team in the matchup. Kluber has not pitched since 9.26 due to a groin issue, so he should be fresh. As I've pointed out many times throughout the year, Kluber's WHIP this season (1.060) is actually lower than it was in 2014 when he took home the Cy Young. When he's taken the mound at home this year, the team is 11-5. It's a real "T.G.I.F." situation in Cleveland as the Tribe is 21-5 in Friday games this season! Kluber faced Boston twice in the regular season, winning once and losing once. Remember that he has an outstanding defense to back him up. Catcher Roberto Perez turned in an awesome game behind the plate last night. 8* Cleveland |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -144 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:00 ET): Baltimore will go w/ Chris Tillman in tonight's Wild Card matchup and that makes sense. The team went 22-8 in his 30 regular season starts, but just 67-65 in all other games. He finished +14.7 units, which was top five among all starting pitchers. Tillman also posted a 4-0 TSR vs. Toronto this year. But his ERA in those four outings was a pretty pedestrian 3.63. He never lasted more than six innings in any of the four starts. That's pretty indicative of overall results for him as he won far more than he should have given the numbers. While no manager does a better job of juggling the bullpen that Buck Showalter, I think there's some real concern with Tillman's health (shoulder issue) as he was certainly less effective down the stretch (5.03 ERA, 1.529 WHIP L7 starts) due in large part to declined velocity on his fastball. Having a negative KW ratio in three of your last five outings is never a good sign, but it could really cost Tillman here facing a lineup that is excellent at drawing walks. This year aside, his career numbers vs. Toronto aren't good (5-10, 5.44 ERA), including a 2-7 WL record here at Rogers Center w/ an unsightly 7.01 ERA. In four starts LY vs. the Jays, he was 0-4 w/ a 11.72 ERA. Toronto counters w/ Marcus Stroman, who is a far better ground ball pitcher than Tillman. Assuming Stroman can continue to keep the ball down tonight, that's a much-needed trait to possess when facing the Orioles, who tend to "live off" the home run. Note that Stroman led all of MLB in ground ball percentage during the regular season and was 20 points higher than Tillman in that department. Given the respective lineups here, that's a massive edge for Stroman, whose won-loss record may not match his counterpart but the numbers are essentially the same (WHIPs are basically identical). Yes, Stroman failed to beat the Orioles in three tries during the regular season, but he pitched well enough to get the victory every time. While winless in September, that was owed to the offense getting shut out THREE times when he was on the mound. I don't see that happening here. Over his L13 starts, Stroman's ERA is 3.24 and he's given up only seven home runs in 83 1/3 IP. Toronto won the regular season series, barely, going 10-9 head to head. That includes a 6-4 mark here at Rogers Centre. While homefield advantage has meant very little in year's past in these Wild Card matchups, I think it will here. Baltimore is the ONLY AL playoff team to have posted a losing road record during the regular season. Something else to consider is that Toronto posted a far better run differential (+93 to +29), so the fact the teams finished the regular season w/ identical records is a bit misleading. The price is absolutely justified on the Jays here and they are 17-9 as a ML home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 10* Toronto |
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09-30-16 | A's v. Mariners -187 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
6* Seattle (10:10 ET): Time is running out on the Mariners. With three games to play, they trail the two current Wild Card teams - Toronto and Baltimore - by two games. They would also need to leapfrog Detroit, who was rained out yday and thus stays one-half game up on the M's. Seattle did help its own cause Thursday w/ a 3-2 win over the last place Athletics. They probably need a sweep here, however, to have any chance at making the postseason. Fortunately, the A's should comply as they've got just one win in the last 10 games, plus are now -106 for the year in run differential. They've scored the fewest runs in the American League and guaranteed a last place finish (currently 67-92). Seattle absolutely should win again tonight. It wasn't necessarily easy for the Mariners yday, but they never trailed and broke a 1-1 tie in the seventh, never to look back. Pitching has been strong of late, allowing just 3.4 rpg their last seven. Taijuan Walker seems to be back in top form and he'll go tonight. Walker is 3-1 his L4 starts overall w/ one CG shutout mixed in there. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 5 1/3 IP against Minnesota. It's a little surprising to see an 0-2 TSR vs. Oakland this year, but he also hasn't faced them since May. That last time came starting opposite Rich Hill, who is no longer here, and Walker got tagged w/ four unearned runs. His only other start vs. the A's this year saw him allow just two runs in 6 IP. Overall, Seattle is 11-5 vs. Oakland this year. The A's, who are just 2-8 as a ML road underdog of +175 to +200 this year, are going w/ Raul Alcantara. This will be his fifth start since joining the rotation (1-3 TSR so far) and he was on the losing end vs. Seattle earlier the month. This Oakland team is clearly just "playing out the string" as they've lost 9 of 10 while getting held to two runs or fewer seven times. Twice they've been shutout and three other times they were held to just one run. Seattle has all the reason in the world to keep competing while Oakland has none. 6* Seattle |
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09-30-16 | Brewers v. Rockies -162 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Admittedly, little (if anything) is at stake this weekend at Coors Field as the Brew Crew comes to town. Both teams are already assured of losing seasons (again) and neither is playing particularly good baseball at the moment. Milwaukee, who had Thursday off, has dropped four of five. Colorado returns home following an unsuccessful 1-6 road trip that saw them have to play at both Los Angeles and San Francisco, the two playoff contenders in their own division. But, the Rockies do have revenge here after being swept in Miller Park last month. I think they're the better team anyway (as does run differential), plus at home they at least have a winning record. The Brewers are a lousy 30-48 on the road this season. To me, the Rockies should be a little bit closer to .500. They've only been outscored by 15 runs over the course of the season (Milwaukee at -62). Colorado's run diff was actually in the black before the last road trip. Note that in their last home game, they drubbed St. Louis 11-1. Offense will of course pick up tonight as the home team averages 6.4 rpg here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home in all of baseball. Here, they'll face little known Brent Suter, whose big league debut did not go all that well last month. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. Coming out of the bullpen, he's looked better since (in very limited work), but Coors Field is a whole different animal and tonight he'll be facing multiple players going for individual honors. Nolan Arenado is tied for the NL lead in home runs and is also #1 in all of MLB in RBI's. DJ LeMahieu is going for the batting title and has a great chance to win it w/ Washington's Daniel Murphy injured. Colorado counters w/ Chad Bettis. The numbers may not suggest he is the team's best pitcher, but he has been the most successful w/ a 20-11 TSR returning 11.95 units at the betting window. Somewhat surprisingly, Bettis' numbers are slightly better at home than on the road. That's a good thing here, obviously. Starting opposite Clayton Kershaw his last time out, Bettis needed to be at his best and wasn't. But before that, the team had won his previous four outings. He did throw a CG shutout (two-hitter) here at home vs. San Fran on 9.2. 8* Colorado |
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09-29-16 | Dodgers -164 v. Padres | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers are really letting some golden opportunities slip away here in San Diego. If they end up not having homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington (that matchup is already 'locked in'), then Dodger Blue will likely rue this series which has already seen them drop two games to the lowly Padres. It should be pointed out that San Diego has absolutely nothing to play for here; they are still 22 games below .500 w/ a -72 run differential. But they seem to love the spoiler role. However, to me, the key to handicapping this matchup is the fact that the Padres come in on a three-game winning streak. Five times previously this has happened for them, all five times they have lost the next game. Go with the Dodgers. Juilo Urias has been used sparingly in the Dodgers rotation here in the second half. His last start (9.13) saw him toss 3 2/3 scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium (allowed only four hits). Before that (on 9.2), he held this San Diego lineup to just two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his six second half starts so far, which is a good sign. He'll be facing a lineup that is not known for scoring a ton of runs. In fact, the Padres should feel fortunate to even rank 21st in runs scored as they are 28th in slugging (.390) and dead last in both team batting average (.234) and OBP (.299). Thus, the 13 runs they've scored so far in this series certainly should be taken with a grain of salt. San Diego starter Christian Friedrich takes the mound this evening having posted strong numbers of late (2.84 ERA, 0.895 WHIP). But he has not fared well against Los Angeles this year (6.39 ERA in three stars) or in his entire career for that matter (7.32 ERA in 13 appearances). I mentioned earlier that the Padres are 0-5 this year when on a three-game win streak, well, they are just 24-42 off one win. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 40-28 off a loss. Again, they really need to start winning games down the stretch here as they trail Washington (who lost yday) by two games in the chase for homefield advantage in that LDS matchup. I call for the better team to assert itself on Thursday. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-29-16 | Twins v. Royals -161 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -161 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals were officially eliminated from playoff contention yday, but as per usual are playing well "this time of year." They've now won four in a row following yday's 5-2 victory. Of course, it helps drawing the horrible Twins as an opponent. Minnesota has been the "gift that keeps on giving" this season as they started in an 0-9 hole, which proved to be insurmountable. There was a brief attempt at a midseason resurgence, but now the team is 56-102 w/ a -173 run differential, which is easily the AL's worst. Somewhat incredibly, they are just 10-36 their last 46 games, including a horrible September that has seen them drop 10 of their last 11. I can't really see any reason NOT to go against them here as I imagine they just want this miserable season to end. Yes, it has been a very disappointing defense of LY's World Series title. But the Royals remain a pretty safe bet at Kauffman Stadium where they are 47-30 overall this year, including 7-1 in the -150 to -175 range on the money line. Toeing the rubber tonight will be Danny Duffy, who overall has been their most reliable pitcher in 2016. There was a time when the only time they won was w/ him on the mound. Overall, Duffy sports a 17-8 TSR including 11-3 at home. He's yet to drop a decision here (7-0) where his ERA and WHIP are 3.35 and 1.116 respectively. Despite a rough outing in Detroit last week, Duffy remains in the Top 20 in net units earned among all starting pitchers this year. For his career, he has a 2.53 ERA against the Twins (11 starts) and he's allowed just four runs to them in two starts this year (12 2/3 IP) while striking out 14 and walking only two. The Twins have been predictably terrible on the road this year (26-51), but here in Kansas City, things have been very bad. As in an 0-9 record! They are just 3-15 overall vs. the Royals this year and 10-27 against them since the start of last season. Starting Kyle Gibson is unlikely to turn things around as he comes in with a 5.04 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 24 starts this year. He somehow managed to come out on the winning end vs. Duffy earlier this month (though neither pitcher factored into the decision). Duffy actually pitched better, but the KC bullpen had a rare meltdown. It also should be pointed out that Minnesota's offense has been held to three runs or fewer in ELEVEN consecutive games (scored just 21 runs total). This has all the makings of a sweep Thursday night. 8* Kansas City |
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09-28-16 | Rays v. White Sox -104 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I feel as if it's "been a minute" since we've checked in on the White Sox. That's somewhat for good reason as they are already assured of no better than a .500 finish, their fourth consecutive season doing so. But, they have been playing well of late w/ four straight wins, the last two coming here at home against the current opponent, Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rays have now lost five in a row after the 7-1 loss Monday and 13-6 loss Tuesday. Those are hardly "close games," thus I think it makes a lot of sense to "ride the hot hand" here and back the home team. Note that it was a 13-3 game last night heading into the ninth inning. Chicago's offense produced eight extra base hits in the victory. Miguel Gonzalez may have only four wins in 22 starts this season for the Sox, but there have been a ton of times where he has not factored in the decision. He rejoined the starting rotation earlier this month and made three consecutive quality starts. Then, he allowed five runs in Cleveland, Friday. That actually snapped a streak of nine consecutive quality starts dating back before his time spent on the DL and his second half ERA going into that last start was 2.96! He did not face Tampa Bay in the only other series that took place between these teams, back in April. It should be pointed out that Chicago is a much better team at home where they are 43-33. The Rays are heading in the wrong direction as their season comes to a close. They've lost five straight and eight of nine. Having Blake Snell pitch tonight probably won't help, even though he is coming off five shutout innings vs. the Yankees last Thursday. That was Tampa's only win in the last nine games, but the fact remains Snell has been pretty inconsistent as is evident by the fact his WHIP is still 2.083 his L3 starts despite the strong effort his last time out. His biggest problem has been walks as there's been only one second half start where he didn't issue multiple free passes. Overall, he has 50 walks in 86 1/3 innings pitched. The Rays have just been a terrible road team this year (29-47) and have also scored the second fewest number of runs in the American League. This is a great price considering the respective current states of the two clubs. 10* Chi White Sox |
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09-28-16 | Mariners -106 v. Astros | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
10* Seattle (2:10 ET): This all-important rubber match sees the two teams separated by just one-half game in the standings (Seattle up), chasing Baltimore for the final Wild Card. Time is running out as the Mariners are two games back w/ five to play and would also have to jump the Tigers. Houston won here yday, 8-4, but I have not yet given up hope on the Mariners' playoff aspirations. It was looking like a second straight Seattle victory last night; that was until the Astros busted loose for a six run sixth. What hurts about that one is that the M's had Felix Hernandez on the mound. But they appear to have the edge in starting pitching again this afternoon w/ James Paxton and I'll throw my support behind him. Paxton comes in w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Minnesota to only one run and five hits in seven innings of work, also finishing w/ 9 K's and zero walks. The start before that saw him face Houston. There, he allowed only two runs and four hits in another seven inning effort. Unfortunately, it was a hard-luck loss w/ Seattle coming out on the wrong end, 2-1. Still, Paxton has picked a great time to have this resurgence and I see him getting his revenge on the Astros today. In the daytime, he has a 3-1 TSR this season. Houston's lineup is hitting only .239 in day games this season. Since July 22nd, Paxton has allowed 2 ER or less in six of 10 starts. Meanwhile, Houston's Doug Fister has not pitched well of late. He comes in w/ a 7.90 ERA and 1.829 WHIP his L3 starts. That is largely owed to one disastrous showing against these Mariners where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Needless to say, the Astros lost that game, 7-3. Overall, the team has lost each of Fister's last six starts. He has faced the M's four times this season and has a 6.86 ERA. Overall, I have Seattle graded as the slightly better team, so w/ the pitching edge they are justified to come in favored on the road for this one. They've gone 15-9 here in September. 10* Seattle |
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09-27-16 | Dodgers -215 v. Padres | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -215 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is an incredibly cheap price on the Dodgers all things considered. Despite having the NL West locked up, this team still has something to play for and that's homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington. Considering Dodger Blue's tremendous home record this season (53-28), homefield advantage is something they should be after. Their first opponent this week is lowly San Diego, a team w/ nothing to play for that's 24 games under .500 w/ a -79 run differential. While more competitive here at home, the Padres are just 8-20 in the +125 to +175 range on the ML at Petco this season and 9-16 here vs. the Dodgers since 2014. I can't see any legit reason to endorse San Diego here. There has been a pitching change for the Dodgers tonight as Maeda is now starting. I like them even more now! The team comes in having won 8 of 10 and are off a thrilling win Sunday over the Rockies (fifth straight) that gave them a sweep and the NL West title. Over the L7 games, LA is giving up 2.3 rpg w/ opponents batting just .218. San Diego comes in batting just .212 as a team its L7 games. The Dodgers have won five of the last six overall meetings vs. the Padres and are 67% the L3 seasons (36-18) against them. The Padres counter with Paul Clemens, who has pitched well of late. He's allowed only two unearned runs his L2 starts, but he's allowed five runs in his last two starts against division winners - Boston and the Cubs - and both of those games took place here at home. Another key here is that San Diego is off a win. They are just 22-42 in that situation this year. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-26-16 | A's v. Angels +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): For much of this season, these teams have been "neck and neck," trying to fight their way out of last place in the American League West. Currently, the Angels are 1.5 games up, but according to run differential that gap should be even greater. The Halos have only been outscored by 30 runs over the course of this season while the A's are at -95 (second worst). Those respective scoring differentials indicate that the gap between the teams should be closer to eight games! Consider that LA actually owns a slightly better run diff than Kansas City, who is currently two games above .500! Another factor favoring the Angels here is that prior to yday's results, these teams were heading in opposite directions. They had won four straight while Oakland had lost five in a row. I'll back the home team in this one. The primary reason that the Athletics seem to be getting so much respect from the linesmakers here is that they have Sean Manaea pitching. Over his L3 starts, Manaea has not given up an earned run and has allowed just seven hits in 14 1/3 IP (five walks). But I'm not buying it. Last time he faced the Angels (8.2), he gave up five runs in 5 2/3 IP. That's actually the only time he's faced them and it was a 5-4 loss. Keep in mind that Manaea missed the first two weeks of September w/ a back injury. He should not expect much support from an offense which failed to score a single run both Friday and Saturday at home against the Rangers. Overall, A's hitters are batting a collective .203 the past seven games. That's got to be "music to the ears" of Angels' starter Jered Weaver, who has been in fine form himself of late. He's also typically a much better pitcher at home than on the road. This will be the 38th time in Weaver's career that he's faced Oakland and he has a 2.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. The starts this year haven't necessarily been great, but again, he's been better overall of late w/ a 4-1 record (5-1 TSR) his L6 starts and 31 K's in 34 2/3 IP. The A's easily grade out as the second worst team in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota) while the Angels are a middle of the road group, making tonight's money line an excellent value. 10* LA Angels |
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09-26-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -186 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -186 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have pretty much "put the Yankees to bed" this weekend by taking the first three games of this four game set. At the same time, that's clearly improved their own playoff prospects as they now sit 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore for the top Wild Card spot and are a full three games clear of Detroit, who is the "last team out" entering today. Considering recent form and their history here North of the border, I simply cannot see New York "getting off the mat" in the unusual situation of playing a series finale on a Monday. They've not only dropped 11 of 14 overall, but they are 0-8 their last eight games here at Rogers Centre. The offense has been virtually non-existent for Joe Girardi of late and that's a problem facing JA Happ. Home team should win big tonight. Going into yday, the Yankees had been shutout in three consecutive games. No AL team had been shutout four straight times since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973! But all they managed Sunday were three runs and now they have to face Happ, who is a 20-game winner (23-7 TSR) that has dominated them throughout the course of 2016. In four starts this year, Happ has a 4-0 team start record against the Yankees w/ a 2.39 ERA. He comes in having gone 3-0 his previous three starts overall w/ a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Going back to the start of July, Happ has not allowed more than 4 ER in any start (3 or less in 12 of 14). He's allowed 1 ER or less seven times. The Yankees and their pathetic lineup seem like the least likely candidates to breakthrough against Happ right now. Did I mention that the Yankees are sending Luis Severino out to the mound? While Happ ranks near the top of the pecking order in net units, Severino is at the bottom. In fact, had he started more times, one might surmise he'd be dead last. The Yanks have lost all nine of his 2016 starts, the last one coming back on August 19th where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Toronto has not yet gotten to face him this year, but I expect their bats to "tee off" here. His ERA and WHIP the L3 starts overall are 16.03 and 2.530. On paper, this shapes up as one of the biggest mismatches of the entire MLB season. 6* Toronto |
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09-25-16 | Phillies v. Mets -176 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets suffered a rough loss yday. As a result, they are now tied with the Giants, one-half game ahead of the Cardinals in the Wild Card chase. The team they lost to was the Phillies. Given the stakes involved this final week, that can't happen. At one point, the Mets trailed 10-0 Saturday. They fought back valiently, but ultimately came up short, losing 10-8. Again, given the Phillies current standing, the Mets should not be losing to this team. Philly's YTD run differential of -152 is third worst in all of baseball. I look for the defending NL champs to bounce back Sunday in a game they have to have. Injuries have taken a Mets rotation that was the envy of all (save for the Cubs) to a real "rogue's gallery." Here, it will be Robert Gsellman, making his sixth career start. Ironically, the first came against Philadelphia. It didn't go well as he allowed 4 ER in six innings and the Mets lost 5-1. But since then, Gsellman has gotten a lot better. He's allowed just seven runs over his L22 IP, working out to a 2.86 ERA in the last four outings. He faced Atlanta and Washington twice during that time and in both instances he was better the second time around. Thus, I feel the pattern should continue here. Although the Mets' rally ultimately came up short Saturday, I think there will be a carryover effect from the eight straight runs scored. Sunday will be the Phillies' final road game of 2016. They are just 34-43 away from Citizens Bank Park in 2016, basically getting outscored by a full run per game. This is a terrible offensive ballclub, so yday's 10-run output needs to be taken w/ a grain of salt. They are 30th in runs scored, 29th in batting average, 29th in OBP and 29th in slugging. Pitching for them here will be Jake Thompson, who has a 3-6 TSR, including 0-3 on the road (9.21 ERA, 1.842 WHIP). Also of note is that this is a day game. The Mets are 28-18 in day games this year. The Phillies are 21-30. 6* NY Mets |
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09-24-16 | Reds -102 v. Brewers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The two also-rans from the NL Central are simply relegated to playing out the string at this point. Earlier this month at Great American Ballpark, the Reds took two of three from the Brewers. But since dropping the finale of that series, they've gone on to lose eight of nine (swept by the Cubs earlier this week). The Brew Crew took last night's opener, 5-4, a game they rallied from a 3-1 deficit and also turned a triple play. But Cincy still holds a 9-8 edge in head to head meetings this season. Their only win in the L9 games happened to come with the pitcher who is going today on the mound. Dan Straily again gives them the edge Saturday and thus this is a rare spot to back the lowly Reds, who had - before this losing streak - been one of the most profitable teams to play in the second half! Straily isn't just the Reds most profitable pitcher. At +14.8 units for the year, he's currently tied w/ the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka for the MLB lead at the betting window! Consider that the team is 19-10 when he pitches and just 44-80 in all other games! His nine wins since the All-Star Break are tied for most among all NL starters. He has certainly had Milwaukee's number this season, going 2-0 w/ a 1.77 ERA in three starts. When he faced them earlier this month, he went eight innings, allowed only two runs (both on solo HR's) and three hits. Opponents are now batting just .220 off Straily for the year after he held Pittsburgh to three runs and five hits (6 IP) on Sunday. Again, that was the last time the Reds won a game. Milwaukee counters w/ Taylor Jungmann and he simply is not a good option. He makes the jump from Double-A here, but has pitched plenty of times in the big leagues. Unfortunately, those efforts have not gone well. In his L10 starts here, he is 0-7 w/ a 9.35 ERA. He has been out of the rotation since April. In that first month of the season, the team lost four of his five starts overall. In three of the five starts, he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts, which is never good. Note that he was then demoted to Triple-A and struggled there as well, going 1-3 w/ a 9.87 ERA! That landed him down at Double-A where things did get better for him, but again, it's a big jump going from Double-A to the big leagues, even if the opponent is the last place Reds. WIth Cincy having its best pitcher go up against a shaky spot in the Milwaukee rotation, clearly this is a time to fire on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati |
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09-23-16 | Giants -140 v. Padres | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:40 ET): Like the Mets, the Giants simply must take advantage of a favorable weekend matchup here as the other Wild Card competition (St. Louis) has to spend its weekend playing at Wrigley Field. It has been quite the miserable second half so far for San Francisco (24-39 overall). But they did win last night 2-1 over the Padres. The game was scoreless until the eighth when the Giants busted loose for four of their six hits. San Diego managed to put one on the board in the bottom of the inning, but it was not enough. I can't see any reason why the Padres would "circle the wagons" this weekend, thus even this very late start at Petco can't delay the inevitable, which is a Giants win. Believe it or not, San Fran was swept at home by San Diego earlier this month, so this series is a bit of payback. Starting tonight for the Giants will be Albert Suarez. Even though he hasn't made it past the five inning mark since rejoining the rotation in late August, you have to feel for him having an 0-5 TSR over that time. That's because Suarez has allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts. In fact, he's yet to allow more than three in any of his 11 starts this season! One of those came against San Diego on 9.13 and he was a hard luck loser there. In five innings, he allowed just one run, but the Giants ended up losing that game, 6-4, in brutal fashion (allowed five runs in top of the ninth). So Suarez certainly did his job there and I think he can do the same again tonight. As a team, the Padres are batting a collective .193 the L7 games and have been held to three runs or less five times during that stretch. San Diego is definitely "making it easy" on San Francisco this weekend by putting out a lineup that makes them the equivalent of a "Quadruple-A ballclub" in my opinion. There are a ton of recent callups on skipper Andy Green's card. However, on the mound, will be the veteran Edwin Jackson and he got rocked his last time out. Granted, the eight runs allowed came at Coors Field, but we're still looking at a pitcher w/ a 6.02 ERA and 1.582 WHIP for the season. His 11 starts have seen him give up 5+ runs five different times. This series sets up as a potential sweep for the road team. 8* San Francisco |
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09-23-16 | Phillies v. Mets +123 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 123 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Lady luck appears to be on the Mets' collective shoulder right now as last night saw them pull out a game in stunning fashion. After blowing a 4-3 lead in the top of the eighth, they managed to tie the game up in the bottom of the ninth w/ a Jose Reyes' home run. Then, after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th, Asdrubal Cabrera came up and won the the game on a three-run walkoff. The Mets had been 0-63 this season when trailing after eight innings prior to last night. They used a franchise record 27 players in the come from behind victory, which marked the first time in HISTORY that a team erased a pair of 2+ run deficits in the 9th inning or later w/ HR's. While there's been a pitching change here to rookie Gabriel Ynoa (Steven Matz scratched), I believe the Metropolitans still have enough left in the tank to beat the Phillies, whose -149 run differential is a NL-worst. The pitching change should now gives us a more favorable line and that's great b/c we're also going with the better team. Yes, the Mets were just swept here at home by lowly Atlanta in the previous series. But last night's win may mark a turning point in their season. They and the Giants remain tied for the two Wild Card spots in the NL, one-half game ahead of St. Louis. With the Cards having to play at Chicago (Cubs) this weekend, New York must take advantage of a far more favorable opponent. The rookie Ynoa has made just one start and he allowed only one run and four hits (in 4 2/3 innings) against another weak opponent, Minnesota. Keep in mind that the Phillies are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a wide margin. They also rank 29th in OBP, team batting average and slugging. Ynoa also did look very good at Triple-A Las Vegas (12-5 record) and that's in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The Phils had just swept the White Sox in a quick, two-game IL set earlier this week. But this team should feel very fortunate to have 69 wins this year as their run differential indicates a 59-win pace, which makes them the biggest overachiever besides Texas in all of MLB. Starter Jeremy Hellickson has looked sharp his L2 starts, but both came at home. On the road, he has a 4.08 ERA. Last time out may have been the best Hellickson has ever looked, a three-hit shutout vs. Miami, but considering it was the second straight start he threw 100+ pitches, I expect regression to take place here. His 7.58 career ERA vs. the Mets is his highest against any opponent he's started at least two times against. As a ML road dog in the +150 to +175 range, the Phils are only 3-11 this season. 8* NY Mets |
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09-22-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers -177 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers are officially rolling. They just took two of three from the Giants in what was a critical series. That gives them a six-game edge in the NL West, which basically means they're winning this division. It's a division that includes a Colorado team that might be better than its overall record (73-79, +17 run diff), but park adjustments must be considered in this matchup. The Rockies, of course, play their home games at Coors Field, which is home to - on average - the highest scoring games in all of baseball. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is among the lowest scoring venues in the game (7.5 rpg). Thus, I give a big edge to the home team in this one as Colorado's offense is likely to take a severe hit. Now the Rockies do have a pitcher (Tyler Chatwood) going that has a 9-2 TSR w/ a 1.77 ERA in road starts. But Chatwood's WHIP (1.136) isn't that much lower than the ERA in those road starts, so there's been some good fortune in accruing that TSR. I will concede that Chatwood did pitch well here back on June 6th. But he comes into tonight having allowed 6+ runs in three of his last four starts and one of those was at Philadelphia, who has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. The last three seasons have seen the Rockies go just 85-151 on the road, including 32-42 this year. Chatwood has lost twice to the Dodgers this year, both times at home. I'm not going to even bother running through the numbers from Brett Anderson's first two starts for the Dodgers. Needless to say, they are ugly. But I feel that he can rebound against a team whose offensive production drops about two full runs per game on the road compared to at home. The Rockies are also probably a little "full of themselves" after beating St. Louis 11-1 on Wednesday. LA is simply the better team here. Note that Anderson hasn't worked in a month, so this can be fresh start for him. Even with the division essentially "in the bag" at this point, the Dodgers still have something to play for, that being homefield advantage in a potential LDS matchup with Washington. In their last visit to Chavez Ravine (July), Colorado was swept and scored just two runs in three games. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-22-16 | Royals v. Indians -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Over the past week, the Indians have done a great job at seemingly putting the division (AL Central) race "to bed." Dating back to last Friday, they've gone 4-1 against the Tigers and Royals. I had them in Tuesday's series opener vs. KC, a game they ended up winning 2-1. Yesterday, with Corey Kluber on the hill, they won another one-run game, 4-3 (outhit the Royals 13-7). That result not only dropped Cleveland's magic number (to win the Central) to 5, but it officially eliminated KC (now 77-75) from playoff contention. Therefore, there's a real question of motivation for the road underdog in this situation. Last year's World Series champs have been bad on the road much of this year anyway (32-45) and I've made the case many times that they're not as good as their overall record (-29 run diff). Cleveland is 12-3 on the money line this season as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Go with them. Not all the news has been good over the last week in Cleveland. As I mentioned in Tuesday's analysis, they'll have to go the rest of the way w/o TWO front line starters - Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. That puts more pressure on guys like tonight's starter Mike Clevinger. I realize that he has not gone very deep into games, but in three September starts, Clevinger has allowed just 3 ER in 9 2/3 IP. He's given up just seven hits as well. That works out to a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. The lineup he'll be facing tonight is not strong as the Royals have scored just four runs total in this series. Back to the homefield edge, Cleveland is 8-1 at home this year vs. KC. Jason Vargas is the starter tonight for the Royals. This is just his 2nd time starting since coming back from Tommy John surgery. On Saturday, he made his official return and threw just three innings against the White Sox and gave up one run on two hits. In 12 career starts vs. the Indians, Vargas has a 4.70 ERA. The trouble for him here is that the Tribe are one of them top scoring home teams in all of baseball at 5.7 rpg. They are batting a collective .290 this season at Progressive Field. As a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year, the Royals are a lousy 8-25. 8* Cleveland |
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09-21-16 | Yankees -123 v. Rays | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Remember what I said in yday's analysis about these teams basically being even, despite the (now-14 game) gap in the standings. Well, that's certainly not the case when Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound for the Yankees. Tanaka, his team's best starter by far, has turned in six consecutive quality outings where he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. One of the more impressive performances during that stretch came against these Rays on 9.10 as he allowed just one run on five hits in 7 1/3 IP. He also set a season-high w/ 10 strikeouts. Following that up w/ another strong effort against Boston, Tanaka now has a 1.90 ERA and 0.909 WHIP his L7 starts. He has NEVER lost to the Rays in seven tries (7-0 TSR) thanks to a 2.42 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. He is the difference maker in this one. The Yanks kept their fleeting playoff hopes alive w/ a 5-3 win yday. They were coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston over the weekend. A four-run seventh was all the Pinstripes needed on Tuesday and while that may have contributed to me losing my Under bet (Rays scored one run in bottom of the eighth to put it over), it's actually an encouraging sign for today. Gary Sanchez continues to be the talk of the Bronx w/ 17 HR's in 42 games. Now only 3.5 games back of Baltimore (who has lost each of the L2 days), the Yankees clearly have motivation here. I can't say the same for Tampa Bay, who might be better than their record, but they're also 22 games below .500 and done for the season. TB is 33-52 off a loss this season. We figure that the Rays will struggle against Tanaka tonight, but what about the Yankees against Alex Cobb? Well, in the past they have struggled against Cobb (2.13 ERA, 0.895 WHIP in 11 career starts vs. NY). But the Yanks have still won 6 of those 11 games and did get to him on 9.8 for four runs and nine hits in six innings. They won that game, 5-4. Cobb did follow that up w/ a strong effort in Toronto, just his third start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. It will be interesting to see how he holds up in these final two weeks of the season. Something else to consider is that Rays hitters have struck out an alarming 65 times the L6 games. 8* NY Yankees |
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09-21-16 | Blue Jays -112 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10* Toronto (3:40 ET): Entering this very important series, the Blue Jays held a two-game lead over the Mariners in the Wild Card chase. You can now make it a four game advantage. Toronto has come to Safeco Field and taken the first two games, 3-2 and 10-2. They are now the top Wild Card, one game ahead of Baltimore. Crazy as it may seem, the Jays are favored this afternoon to come in and make it a clean sweep. This despite going up against Felix Hernandez! But King Felix didn't fare so well his last time out. As a matter of fact, two of his previous three starts have not been good. Early money has moved in on Toronto here and they are 32-23 in day games. I'm on them. I'm going to go back to a point I've made before. The Blue Jays, who were carried by a league-leading offense last year, are getting great pitching in 2016. Granted, the offense still ranks 7th in all of MLB in runs scored. But they've also allowed the second fewest number of runs among AL teams, trailing only Cleveland. Today's starter Aaron Sanchez simply loves to pitch "South of the border" (i.e. on the road) where he's gone 8-1 in 15 starts w/ a 2.71 ERA and 1.124 WHIP. His last start left a bit to be desired, but that was against Boston, who is this year's top offensive team. Sanchez has not faced Seattle this year, but did hold them to two runs in 6 2/3 IP in his one start against them in 2015. A blister issue that has plagued him in the second half has reportedly been solved. The Seattle offense has scored two runs or less in five of the past six games. Three times in his last four starts, Felix Hernandez has given up six runs. That's not a good sign. The one time he didn't was against Oakland, who is one of the bottom two teams in the American League. I look for King Felix's struggles to continue today. He has not faced Toronto this year, but has a 4.39 ERA in 15 career starts against them. I know this price looks very tempting, but if something looks "too good to be true," then you know what that typically means. One more thing to consider is that the Blue Jays have had a ton of fan support here at Safeco this week. 10* Toronto |
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09-20-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -154 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -154 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I went w/ the Dodgers last night and while they certainly couldn't seem to solve Madison Bumgarner, they ended up prevailing anyway, 2-1. I'll take it and come right back w/ Dodger Blue yet again tonight. What a crippling loss that was last night for Giants' fans. As stated in yday's analysis, it has simply been a miserable second half for San Fran as they are now 22-38 since the All-Star Break. They had the best record in baseball going into the Break and now are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether! (They enter Tuesday tied w/ St. Louis for the 2nd Wild Card). The Giants' bullpen has obviously been a problem, but so too has an offense that produced only three hits in last night's loss. The Dodgers are simply the better team at this point. Losing a game where your ace delivers seven shutout innings of one-hit ball is not good. In the final two innings, the Giants bullpen gave up five hits, throwing away what Bumgarner had done, and lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. It was the ninth time this season that the Giants lost a game they led after eight innings. That's a franchise record, by the way. The offense has been scuffling for some time now, particularly when they have RISP. In the second half, they are batting just .225 in that situation and in 47 of 59 games, they have collected three or fewer hits (w/ RISP). Last night's lone run scored came on a wild pitch after an infield single by Nunez, who then advanced two more bases after a steal and errant throw. So, it's been a real struggle to put runs on the board for San Fran, who has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last eight games (just three total in L3). This visit to Chavez Ravine isn't likely to correct these offensive issues; visiting teams are averaging just 3.3 rpg here at Dodger Stadium w/ a .218 batting average this season. The Giants do have Johnny Cueto going tonight, but the Dodgers have Rich Hill. Since coming over from the A's, Hill has been awesome. His last three starts have seen him deliver a 1.96 ERA and ridiculous 0.436 WHIP! He did give up four runs in his last start, but that was in Arizona, a real hitter's park. His three starts before that, he didn't even allow a single run and that includes six shutout innings of five hit ball opposite Cueto and the Giants back on 8.24. Remember that on 9.10, he was pulled after seven innings despite having a no-hitter going in Miami. These are two teams trending in opposite directions right now as the Dodgers have won 18 of 28 while the Giants have lost 16 of 27. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-20-16 | Royals v. Indians -159 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): After taking two of three from the Tigers over the weekend, the Indians have a seven-game advantage in the AL Central w/ 13 to play. That seems pretty insurmountable to me. Yet, don't tell that to the local press in Cleveland, which has declared the season "all but over" due to the losses of BOTH Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar for the remainder of the season. Those are big losses mind you and probably will hurt the Tribe come playoff time. But, for tonight, I'm not worried as they host a Royals team whose season is very much on the brink. Yes, KC did just win three straight over Chicago over the weekend (lost Thursday's series opener). But this has very much been an overachiever this season (-23 run differential), plus they've been a bad road team (32-43). I'm on Cleveland here. Much more is going to be expected out of Josh Tomlin now that Carrasco and Salazar are done for the year. Following a two-week exile from the rotation, Tomlin returned Wednesday and gave a solid five inning effort where he allowed just one run on four hits. The team won that game easily, 6-1. Tomlin's last two starts against the Royals have also been effective. Facing them twice in June, he allowed just two runs in 13 1/3 IP w/ 9 K's and just one walk. For his career (15 starts), he has a 1.198 WHIP against them. The off day typically helps Cleveland as they are 10-3 this season in that situation. They are also 49-26 at home (11-3 when priced between -150 and -175 on the ML) and 61-36 in night games. Kansas City goes with Edinson Volquez here and he has not been effective in the month of September. In three starts this month, his ERA and WHIP are 9.60 and 2.00. That's after allowing nine runs Thursday (in just 3 1/3 IP) to an Oakland team that simply is not very good. In 11 career starts vs. Cleveland, Volquez's WHIP is 1.764. I mentioned earlier that the Royals have been a bad road team all season. Well, that certainly includes games at Progressive Field where they are just 1-6. As a road underdog of +125 to +150, KC is just 5-17 this season. 8* Cleveland |
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09-19-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Because of the injury to Kershaw, there have been only two head to head matchups w/ Bumgarner this season. Kershaw and the Dodgers won both. The last was 7-3, here at Chavez Ravine back in April. Kershaw allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings of work while Bumgarner gave up four runs and eight hits in just five innings of work. The first was more of the pitcher's duel that you'd expect with Bumgarner actually giving up one fewer run, but ultimately coming up short. I think the key to handicapping this game and series though is not all about the starting pitching. Rather, it boils down to the fact the Giants have been in a complete free fall since the All-Star Break while LA has established itself as the team to beat in the NL West. With Kershaw on the mound, at home, and available at this (relatively) cheap price, I have no choice but to back the Dodgers. I, of course, do not intend on completely discarding the effect starting pitching will have on this matchup. Kershaw is 7-1 at home this season w/ a 1.31 ERA and 0.581 WHIP! This will be his first time pitching at Dodger Stadium since rejoining the rotation earlier this month. Last time out, he held the Yankees to only one hit in five scoreless innings. His workload has been carefully managed since his return, but there was also a lengthy rain delay in New York Wednesday. I think we'll see him go longer tonight. That means trouble for the Giants. In 34 career starts vs. SF, Kershaw is 18-7 w/ a 1.62 ERA and 0.80 WHIP! Take Buster Posey and Angel Pagan out of the equation and the Giants lineup that will face Kershaw tonight has batted a collective .110 against him! Bumgarner has a 5.63 ERA in his two starts vs. LA this year and has not fared as well against them as Kershaw has done against his team. Lack of run support is a major concern for Bumgarner here, not just because the offense is going against Kershaw, but also because they were shutout Sunday and held to only five hits by St. Louis. Overall, they are just 22-37 since the Break. The Dodgers are 47-27 at home, allowing only 3.3 rpg. Bumgarner, by the way, has a 4.34 ERA his L3 starts. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-19-16 | Cardinals v. Rockies +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:40 ET): I think that it's fair to say the National League has played out pretty much how we'd expected. The Cubs (already clinched), Nats and Dodgers are your likely division winners with the Mets, Cardinals and Giants currently competing for the two Wild Card spots. The rest of the Senior Circuit is basically playing out the string at this point. I anticipated a rather sizable gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NL this year with the likely "middle class" being comprised of only Pittsburgh, Miami and possibly Arizona. Well, the D'backs are terrible, but another NL West club has been a little bit better than I'd anticipated. That's Colorado. The Rockies just swept the Padres over the weekend (here at home) and while they're still five games below .500, they've actually outscored opponents over the course of this season. This is a good price on them at Coors Field w/ their best pitcher on the mound. St. Louis enters this series off B2B wins over the Giants. That leaves them two back of the Mets and one back of SF for the two Wild Card spots in the National League. The Cards have had one of the better run differentials (currently +63) in the league for most of the year, but that number has taken a hit recently. They have been better on the road than at home, but this will be their first venture into Coors Field this season. Carlos Martinez will get the starting nod here and he just allowed four runs in his last start, a loss to the Cubs. Martinez has not fared well in the past vs. Colorado w/ an 8.04 ERA in six appearances, two starts. I really like this Tyler Anderson for Colorado. I think he could be the front-line starter that this organization has never really had. At home, he's managed a 5-1 record w/ a 3.04 ERA, which is tough to do in this environment. The key is he strikes batters out at a pretty good rate. While off a bit of a rough outing in Arizona last Monday, Anderson had allowed just four runs total in his previous three starts combined (18 2/3 IP), giving him a 1.93 ERA. The Cardinals' offense has not been scoring much recently. Over the L7 games, they are batting a collective .186 and averaging just 2.1 rpg. They have not scored more than four runs in any of the last eight games. Look for Anderson to lead the Rockies (.307 team batting average and winning record at home) to a "surprise" victory tonight. 10* Colorado |
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09-18-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox -173 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): Red Sox are going for a sweep today and I think they'll get it. The Yanks spirit has been crushed over the L3 days, starting w/ the blown save Thursday. It was another Red Sox rally last night, the second in three days from a 5-2 deficit. New York had been overachieving anyway this season. They have a 77-71 record despite being outscored by 18 runs this season. Consider that last place Tampa Bay has a run differential of -23, yet is 20 games UNDER .500! Boston, meanwhile, is pacing the entire AL in run differential (+175). A Red Sox win is the logical result tonight. NY will go w/ CC Sabathia, whose career numbers vs. Boston are not great. The hefty lefty is just 12-13 against them in his career w/ a 4.54 ERA. However, the current Red Sox lineup has struggled against him (combined .232 BA). But Boston is the top offensive team in MLB (825 runs scored), thus I wouldn't doubt them coming into this game. The Sox have scored at least six runs in every game in this series so far. Sabathia last faced them in July and gave up five runs in 5 1/3. I anticipate a similar performance tonight. Boston counters w/ Drew Pomeranz, who has faced the Yankees twice since coming over from San Diego and both times allowed just 1 ER. That's while going a combined 12 1/3 IP. Pomeranz has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts but that's only because he hasn't been getting the amount of run support we're accustomed to seeing from this Boston offense. Yankee hitters are batting just .211 all-time against Pomeranz. Break out the brooms for a Boston sweep. 8* Boston |
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09-17-16 | Twins v. Mets -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Given the teams involved, I did a double-take when I first saw this line. Immediately, I figured that Ervin Santana must be pitching for the Twins (he is) and probably Seth Lugo was going for the Mets (he is). Santana continues to get plenty of respect from oddsmakers, but the bottom line is that he's bottom five in baseball in net units (-11.5) thanks to an 8-19 team start record (w/ both Angels and Twins). "True to form," he's lost B2B quality starts. Starting pitching is important, but not the "end all, be all" and the gap between these two teams is too great for Santana alone to rectify. Remember, the Twins lose the DH spot from the batting order here (were shut out last night!). With a two-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, the Mets simply cannot afford to drop a game to this lowly opponent. Before simply dismissing Lugo as the inferior starting pitcher in this matchup, let us take note of what the youngster has accomplished through five starts. He has a 2.27 ERA and 1.010 WHIP and has yet to concede more than 3 ER any time out. Most importantly, the Mets have won each of his last four starts. The last one came against a similarly overmatched opponent, Atlanta. Interestingly, the Twins now have a worse record than the Braves, so they have the worst record in all of baseball. They are definitely a bottom five team overall and the worst from the American League. At home, Lugo is definitely being undervalued in this spot. He was -120 on the money line for a start against Washington on September 4th! Santana, by the way, has a 4.76 ERA his L4 starts. So it's not as if he arrives in top form. He has walked a high number of batters during that time (12 in 22 1/3 IP) and also given up a home run in all four starts. Out of contention long ago, the Twins have smartly given time to their youngsters. While that's a good plan for the future, it leads to bad results in the present and sure enough the team has lost 22 of its last 28 games overall. They are only 26-47 on the road this season and are 1-6 following a shutout loss. They have given up - by far - the most runs in all of baseball (5.5 per game). The Mets, winners of 18 of 26, allow only 3.6 rpg at home for the season. 8* NY Mets |
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09-16-16 | A's v. Rangers -184 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
6* Texas (8:05 ET): One of the more surprising results this week in MLB saw Oakland go to Kansas City and sweep a four-game series, effectively ending the Royals' postseason hopes in the process. The A's are by no means even mediocre, let alone good, so count me among those surprised by what they did at Kauffman Stadium Monday through Thursday. Yesterday's 14-5 punctuation mark, their third win by 8+ runs of the series, really stunned me. But like I said, this is not a good team. I'd say only Minnesota has been worse this year in the American League. It's a step up in class this weekend for the Athletics as they travel to Texas to take on the first place Rangers. I expect the A's to come back down to Earth, starting Friday. I've had my doubts about the Rangers all season, but they're going to win the AL West and make the playoffs. Right now, they are in line for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. (Remember AL has homefield edge in World Series due to stupid ASG rule). Texas' previous series saw them take two of three from Houston, on the road. At home, this team has been much better as is evident by their 47-22 record here (only the Cubs have a better home record). They are on a 7-1 run as a ML home favorite in the -175 to -200 range. A nice edge for the Rangers here is they had Thursday off while Oakland did not. Another edge Texas has tonight is Cole Hamels. After B2B poor efforts vs. Seattle, the southpaw rebounded by holding the Angels to two runs on four hits last Saturday. Those two games vs. Seattle mark the only starts since the All-Star Break where Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. So he'll be just fine here. Oakland is just 16-23 when facing a southpaw starter this year (4.0 rpg). In three lifetime starts, Hamels ERA vs. the A's is 2.18. Meanwhile, a Rangers offense that already averages 5.5 rpg at home should simply "tee off" against Oakland's Kendall Graveman, who allowed eight runs in his last start. Two starts last year vs. Texas produced a 7.84 ERA and 1.742 WHIP for Graveman. The last time these teams met, it was a Rangers sweep (here in Arlington) and I for one would not be surprised if history repeated itself this weekend. 6* Texas |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays -162 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays are officially in trouble. Yesterday's loss to the Rays dropped them behind the Orioles in the AL East (now in third place) and they have only a precarious one-game lead over Detroit for the second Wild Card. Behind the Tigers are four other teams within five games. Therefore, a series with the out of contention Angels this weekend is a must win for Canada's only team. A sweep would be nice. The Angels were just swept (by Seattle) and have lost seven of eight overall. They are a team I was very low on at the start of the season (they were actually projected to finish .500!) and here they are, coming in at 19 games below .500. They scored all of two runs in the Seattle series. I'm on Toronto w/ J.A. Happ here. Last year, Toronto "lapped" the rest of the league in terms of runs scored, but 2016 has seen them supplanted by division rival Boston in that department. Note the Jays still rank fifth among A.L. teams (8th overall) in runs scored. Underrated is the fact that they also are #2 in runs allowed (in the AL). A big reason for that has been the emergence of Happ, who has a 21-7 team start record after holding the Red Sox to just two runs and four hits his last time out. In terms of net units, Happ is among the top 10 pitchers to bet on in all of baseball (+11.0 units). Happ has NEVER beaten the Angels in six all-time tries, but remember what I said earlier ... this Halos team is not very good. They come in hitting a collective .172 the L7 games, scoring just 1.7 rpg. Happ has held opposing hitters to a .235 average for the year and should set a persona best for strikeouts in a season tonight. The Blue Jays offense will face Daniel Wright, who has made three spot starts in 2016 (two while with Cincinnati) and none have gone particularly well. His LA debut came Saturday and he allowed four runs in 5 IP vs. Texas (allowed 2 HR's). After making only two starts for the sorry Reds, it's a real "sign of the times" that he remains in the Angels rotation here. Still winless, Wright has never lasted more than 5 1/3 and has given up 13 runs total in 13 1/3 IP. That works out to a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP. The Angels are 0-10 in home games this season when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line! 8* Toronto |
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09-15-16 | Twins v. Tigers -144 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:10 ET): Minnesota did win a game on Tuesday (8-1), but overall the Tigers have had their number in 2016 w/ a 12-3 head to head record. That includes taking Monday's series opener (4-2) and last night's rubber match (9-6). They'll look to make it three of four this afternoon in the Motor City before heading down to Cleveland for a big weekend series. I like their chances a lot today. The Twins were arguably the first team to permanently fall out of contention this season as they never recovered from an 0-9 start. They are likely to go "wire to wire" as the worst team in the American League as they currently sit at 54-92 w/ a -143 run differential. Both are easily AL worsts. An 18-35 record in day games does them no favors here either. Monday, I was on the Under in this series. That cashed, but despite not playing the total either of the L2 days, I'm a little bit surprised to see that Tigers' pitching has given up a total of 14 runs. This afternoon, things fall on Mike Pelfrey, who has not pitched since July 31st due to a bad back. All-time, Pelfrey does a 3-0 team start record vs. Minnesota (2-0 in '16). His last start did go well w/ him allowing no runs in five innings. That ended up being an 11-0 win over Dallas Keuchel and the Astros. Though Pelfrey might seem a bit shaky to you in this spot, rest assured that the Tigers are clearly the better team overall. They enter Thursday one-half back of Toronto in what is a loaded Wild Card race (seven teams separated by five games). Detroit can't afford to drop this one. By the way, they are 31-22 in day games this season. They are also 19-7 as a ML home fave of -125 to -150. Good price here. Minnesota, meanwhile, has little reason to care here. They are 29-62 off a loss and hand the baseball to Hector Santiago, who has actually been effective in each of his L3 starts, but also didn't fare too well in his lone start vs. Detroit this year. Back on May 31st, he allowed six runs to them. While the Twins actually won that game (11-9), I don't look for their offense to be as prolific today as over the L7 games they're batting just a collective .222. 8* Detroit |
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09-14-16 | Marlins -139 v. Braves | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:10 ET): On paper, it's a tremendous pitching matchup tonight in Atlanta with Jose Fernandez going up against Julio Teheran. But I feel the former has a big advantage going into this one. Fernandez may not be the same pitcher on the road that he is at home, but the fact he hasn't allowed ANY runs in three of his last four starts has to account for something. Teheran has been victimized by poor luck more than anything as is evident by a 7-19 team start record despite having a 3.01 ERA and 1.026 WHIP. Miami won yday here at Turner Field, 7-5, and while they're just 5-9 this season head to head with the Braves, Atlanta's 24-47 home record remains baseball's worst. I've got the Marlins here. Fernandez did not fare well the last time he faced the Braves. He gave up nine runs (only six earned) in 5 2/3 and the Marlins obviously lost that day, 9-1. But, earlier in the year, he had tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against them. That last start seems to be the aberration as in eight career outings, Fernandez has a 2.96 ERA and 0.910 WHIP against Atlanta. Remember that the Braves rank 29th in all of MLB in runs scored, not to mention 30th (last) in slugging. Last time out, Fernandez spoiled the return of Clayton Kershaw by tossing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball while matching a season-high w/ 14 K's. In 20 of his 27 starts this year, Fernandez has allowed 3 ER or less. There have been 15 times where he's allowed 1 or 0 ER! For the year, he's second in the NL in strikeouts w/ 238. Though Teheran has pitched well, the bottom line w/ him is that he currently ranks in the bottom seven as far as pitchers to bet on as that 7-19 TSR has resulted in a loss of 11.2 units at the betting window. He did allow five runs and 11 hits the last time he faced Miami. The big difference between his last start vs. the Marlins and Fernandez's vs. the Braves is that Teheran's performance was more in line with what we've seen throughout his career. He has a 6.00 ERA in two starts against them this year. Meanwhile, Fernandez's bad showing the last time was a byproduct of a career-worst inning that we shouldn't see a repeat of anytime soon. The Marlins are 4-1 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175 on the ML, virtually all of those games coming w/ Fernandez on the bump. He was a -265 favorite the last time he started at Turner Field, so this is a great value! 10* Miami |
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09-14-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -167 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
6* Toronto (12:37 ET): I've been on the Blue Jays in both games of this series so far and had mixed results. They won Monday, 3-2, but then lost last night, 6-2. This leaves them tied with Baltimore for second place in the AL East and in Wild Card position, two games clear of the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Rays are 22 games below .500 and officially eliminated from playoff contention. Thus, from a motivation perspective, there is no question as to who SHOULD have the edge Wednesday afternoon. While TB has been quite competitive head to head w/ Toronto this year (10-8 overall!), I'll reiterate that they are not a good road team (26-43) and this being a day game is a big edge for the Jays as they have compiled a 32-23 afternoon record. Wednesday's scheduled starter for Toronto is Marco Estrada. There's no running from the fact that he's struggled of late. He's also 0-2 this season vs. Tampa Bay. But I have reason to believe we'll get a quality outing from him today. While winless this season vs. the Rays, Estrada does own a 2.43 ERA and superb 0.840 WHIP lifetime against them (five starts). So he's certainly "due" for better results. Looking back, 15 of Estrada's first 20 starts this season were quality. So I assume this has just been a rough patch for him. Mixed in was a recent effort where he held Baltimore to just one run and four hits on 8.29. I'm calling for something similar to that here. Last time out (vs. Boston) marked a season-low in IP (2 1/3), so he should bounce back. Remember that Toronto is actually second in the American League in runs allowed while Tampa Bay is third from the bottom in runs scored. This price range certainly tells a story as the Blue Jays are 22-8 the L30 times they have been a ML home favorite of -175 to -200 while the Rays are 8-18 L26 times in the +150 to +175 range on the road. Alex Cobb will be making just his third start since returning from Tommy John surgery and it's his second time facing the Jays. While he pitched well the first time around, that was at home. He has a career 5.56 ERA at Rogers Centre. Toronto is 37-27 off a loss this season. 6* Toronto |
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09-13-16 | Indians +105 v. White Sox | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians entered yday only two back in the win column as they try and chase down Texas for the best record in the American League. Unfortunately, Monday's results did not go as the Tribe had hoped. Not only did they fall 11-4 to the White Sox, but the Rangers pulled off one of their patented one-run victories (now 32-10 in one-run games TY!). An eye must also be kept on Boston here as they trail Cleveland by just two games. Tonight is a unique opportunity to get the AL Central leaders at 'plus money' (due to the pitching matchup). While starting pitching is obviously a key component in handicapping MLB, it's not everything and Cleveland has clearly been the better of these two teams this season. Take them Tuesday. Realistically, the White Sox are not contenders any longer. They are one of just five AL teams to currently have a losing record. They'd just dropped two in a row to Kansas City prior to this series. While having Jose Quintana on the hill is what gives them the slight edge tonight in the linesmakers eyes, note he has pitched poorly his last two times out. He's allowed 11 runs in 11 2/3 IP and has given up three home runs. In terms of wins and losses, Quintana has not fared well against the Indians in 2016 as his TSR is 0-3 and the year long story of no run support has been in full effect as his offense has supplied him with only six runs in those three games. One night after scoring 11 runs, I expect the White Sox lineup to regress severely. The team has lost the last five times after it scored 10+ runs the previous game. Trevor Bauer will pitch tonight for the Indians. Over his L7 starts, he is 4-1 (6-1 TSR) w/ a 3.30 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. That's despite a subpar effort his last time out where he still got the win over Houston. Prior to that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts. The last time Bauer faced the White Sox, he beat Quintana thanks to allowing only one run and four hits in 7 IP. That's actually the ONLY time he has faced them in 2016. For his career, he has a 6-2 TSR vs. Chicago w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.280 WHIP. I like the better team to bounce back from a loss in yday's series opener. 10* Cleveland |
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09-13-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -193 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -193 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* Toronto (7:05 ET): Monday may not have been a perfect result for the Blue Jays (as the Red Sox won as well), but with both the Orioles and Yankees dropping games, it was pretty good. I was on the Jays, so I was certainly left happy. They beat the Rays 3-2 in somewhat of a spirited opener (benches cleared) and as indicated by the somewhat sizable money line here, I think they can win fairly easily again tonight. While competitive (run diff of only -35, despite being 23 games under .500), Tampa Bay is the one team in the AL East w/o a winning record, so that's a big bonus for Toronto drawing them this week. As I said yday, getting the Rays "North of the Border" is a real plus given their poor 25-43 road record. Go w/ the home team for a second straight night. Tampa has dropped seven of nine dating back to a loss at home to Toronto on September 4th. Considering they're 23 games below .500, I do not anticipate an inspired finish to the season. They were officially eliminated from playoff contention w/ last night's loss. Tonight, they turn to Drew Smyly, who has struggled of late. Over his L3 starts, Smyly has a 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. He comes off B2B shaky showings vs. Baltimore where he allowed a total of 10 runs in a combined 8 2/3 innings of work. Smyly has pitched well in the past here in Toronto, including a pair of wins in 2016, but w/ a 5.60 ERA and 1.494 WHIP on the road for the season, I do not see that trend continuing. It should also be stated that TB is just 28-53 this season when taking on an opponent w/ a winning record. Toronto is two games back of Boston in the division. A sweep here could be potentially huge w/ the Red Sox currently engaged with the Orioles. Though winless in his L4 starts, including a loss at Tampa Bay on 9.2, Marcus Stroman is a pitcher that I like a lot. He gets the starting nod here tonight. Last time out, he received no run support (literally!) as the Jays were shut out 2-0 by the Yankees. But Stroman had 8 K's vs. only 1 walk in that one and looked impressive. Fifteen times, he got a hitter to swing and miss. Run support has been an ongoing issue for Stroman, but provided he gets it here, he should have no problem defeating one of the lowest scoring lineups in the American League. 5* Toronto |
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09-12-16 | Mariners +111 v. Angels | Top | 8-1 | Win | 111 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:05 ET): The Mariners come off a sweep of the lowly A's and have won five in a row overall. But there's still plenty of work to be done here as they trail the two Wild Card teams, Toronto and Baltimore, by 3.5 games. There's also the Yankees, Tigers and Astros that they'd have to jump over to get into playoff position. So any kind of "let up" against the Angels here to start the week would be ill-timed. The M's have only managed to split 16 games against the Halos this season, but I've got them in the series opener here as it's not like LA is in strong form right now (had lost four in a row before winning Sunday). Three times in the L10 games, Seattle has scored 11 or more runs. The first time was w/ tonight's starter Ariel Miranda on the mound. That was an 11-8 win over these Angels. Since then, they put 14 runs on the board against Texas and 14 runs on the board against Oakland. Pitching has also held up its end of the bargain, allowing three runs or less in every game during this five-game win streak. In his last start, all three runs Miranda allowed were unearned in an 8-3 win over Texas. He's actually been favored on the money line four of his last five starts, so this is a pretty good value. Seattle actually has the fourth best run differential in the entire American League right now (+39). The Angels has not done much over the L5 games, scoring three runs or fewer four times. That lack of support would likely mean trouble for Ricky Nolasco, tonight's starter. Nolasco did throw a CG shutout on 8.31, but that was against the Reds. Then he faced the A's his last time out, so that's two last place opponents in a row. Nolasco did take a loss when he faced Seattle last month. I just have faith in Seattle staying in playoff contention while I see little life being in the Angels down the stretch. 10* Seattle |
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09-12-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays did not have a good weekend nor have they had a good start to September. After dropping two of three to the Red Sox, they now find themselves two games in back in the AL East. Overall, they are just 2-7 this month. But the chance for a turnaround is now "on the table" with a visit from the last place Rays. Granted, I've made the case before that Tampa Bay is better than its record and that probably still holds true. But they'd dropped six of seven overall prior to Sunday's 4-2 win over the Yankees. Surprising is the fact that TB is 9-7 head to head vs. Toronto in 2016. That includes taking two of three on Labor Day weekend. But that last series took place at "The Trop." On the road, the Rays have been very bad as in 25-42. Go w/ Toronto here. Typically, the Jays have been strong off a loss this year as they are 36-27 in that role. They'll hand the baseball to Francisco Liriano tonight as he looks to turn in what would be a third straight solid effort. On August 19th in Cleveland, all Liriano gave up was a single unearned run in six innings of work. One week later at Minnesota, he allowed only two hits in five innings, but somehow got tagged for four runs (did walk four batters). Interestingly, the Jays still won that game handily. This will be Liriano's first start in September, so he's certainly well rested. He has worked twice out of the bullpen recently. His last appearance saw him deliver two scoreless innings agianst the Yankees (allowed just one hit). Toronto's offense at least woke up Sunday. They scored eight runs, but it wasn't enough to beat the Red Sox. It marked the first time in 23 games this year where the Jays scored 8+ times and still lost. Similar production should certainly be enough to beat the Rays, however. Tampa Bay comes in ranked in the bottom four in the AL in runs scored for the season. Toronto will face Jake Odorizzi here and the Rays' righty is coming off a terrible showing last Tuesday vs. Baltimore where he surrendered seven runs in only four innings of work. Odorizzi allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP the last time he faced Toronto, which ended up as a 7-5 loss. 8* Toronto |
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09-11-16 | Dodgers -167 v. Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (1:10 ET): On Friday, the Marlins spoiled Clayton Kershaw's return to the mound by beating the Dodgers 4-1. Of course, it helped that they had their own ace, Jose Fernandez, pitching. Fernandez outdueled Kershaw and his 14 K's helped snap LA's five-game win streak. But Dodger Blue quickly bounced back Saturday w/ a 5-0 shutout and it appears as if all the key edges are in their favor for Sunday afternoon's rubber match. Miami didn't even get a runner on base yday against Rich Hill. Quite frankly, they were fortunate that he was pulled after seven innings. This being a day game favors LA as they are 27-12 in the afternoon while the Fish have a losing record. Yes, the Marlins swept the Dodgers early in the year at Chavez Ravine, but that was April and there's no doubt who the better team is now. Kershaw and then Hill's perfection has to have Miami hitters wondering "what's next?" What's next is Kenta Maeda, who has a 0.953 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts, including just one on three hits his last time out, a 10-2 win over Zack Greinke and Arizona. So a lineup that's scored all of five runs in the L3 games looks to be up against it here. Again, it was just two hits for Miami yday and no baserunners against the starter, who was pulled prematurely. Over the L7 games, Dodgers' pitching has allowed just 18 runs total. Miami will go with Jose Urena, who has been in the rotation ever since the All-Star Break. He's been okay overall, but remains winless at home due to a 6.00 ERA. He allowed four runs his last time out, here at home, and that was against Philadelphia. The Phillies are the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. Right now, it appears as if the Marlins' season is on the brink as they're two games below .500 and realistically have little shot at the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have built a four-game lead in the NL West. That 27-12 record the Dodgers have in day games is MLB's best. 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-10-16 | Mariners -115 v. A's | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:05 ET): Unlike the top-heavy National League, one could make a compelling case that all but four, maybe five, teams in the American League still have a shot at the playoffs. Considering that Oakland is certainly not one of the teams still in contention, winning this series and probably sweeping it becomes paramount for Seattle. The Mariners took Friday's opener, 3-2, and are now 3.5 games back of Detroit & Baltimore for the second Wild Card. They need to leapfrog four teams to get into that spot though (also Astros, Yankees). Friday was a good start and speaking of "good starts," the M's will have Felix Hernandez on the bump this afternoon. That should lead to a relatively easy win for the road team today. King Felix is coming off B2B bad showings, both against Texas. The team was fortunate enough to win the last one, 14-6, as shockingly Cole Hamels pitched terrible as well. Overall though, Hernandez remains one of the top pitchers in the game. Prior to the two starts against Texas, he had turned in four consecutive quality outings. Obviously, Oakland is an opponent he's quite familiar with. He's 22-8 in 42 career starts vs. the A's (29-13 TSR) w/ a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP. The last time he faced them didn't go so well, but there were also four unearned runs scored against him. The only other time Hernandez faced Oakland this year (back in April), he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Athletics counter with their top pitcher, Kendall Graveman. He's had a fine year and it continued w/ 6 1/3 scoreless innings against Boston on Sunday. But he hasn't fared too well against the Mariners this season w/ an 0-3 TSR, twice allowing four runs. His last non-quality start (8.13) came against them. Including yday's win, Seattle is now 5-1 this season in Oakland and 18-8 here since the start of 2014. As I mentioned at the outset of this analysis, the A's are one of the few American League clubs no longer in contention. Other than Minnesota, they've probably been the AL's worst this year. A -119 run differential is sixth worst in all of baseball. Overall, they've lost 7 of 10 w/ all three wins all coming by one run. Three times during that stretch they've allowed 10 or more runs and three times they've lost by six or more runs. 10* Seattle |
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09-09-16 | Giants -184 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
6* San Francisco (9:40 ET): Arizona has made a pitching change here with Rubby De La Rosa replacing Brandon Shipley. The move is immaterial to me as San Fran is going with their ace Madison Bumgarner. Now, I'm well aware of the tailspin the Giants have been in this entire second half of the season. Their 2016 has seen them produce the unusual dichotomy of best record in baseball during the first half (57-33) and worst record in the second (17-32). However, with Bumgarner taking the hill tonight, I expect them to get things going in a positive direction. Arizona is a great place for a total team turnaround for SF as the D'backs are an absolutely atrocious 25-43 at home this year. Arizona's -148 run differential for the year is inches away from being the worst in all of baseball (Philly is -150). The last time Bumgarner faced Arizona was right before the All-Star Break when life was still grand for the Giants. He threw a complete game one-hitter that day as SF rolled to a 4-0 victory as big ML favorites. In 24 career starts vs. Arizona, Bumgarner has a 2.42 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. The last five times he's faced them, that ERA is 1.22. The fact that the big lefty has only a 17-12 TSR this season seems rather criminal given a 2.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. But this would seem to be the ideal matchup to bounce back as Arizona was just held to five runs and 15 hits in a three-game series vs. the Dodgers where they were swept and faced all rookie starters! Don't be afraid of this price range either; the Giants are 8-1 L9 as a road favorite of -175 to -200. There is simply no logical reason to expect the D'backs to be competitive tonight. Like I said, they return home after being swept by the Dodgers. It was a 3-5 road trip overall. But this is one of just five teams in all of baseball to have a better record on the road than at home. Not surprisingly, two of the four others are Philly and Atlanta, who also rank among the very worst teams in the sport (other two are WC contenders St. Louis and Miami). Arizona is only 1-6 this season hosting the Giants and while they were able to split a pair of games at San Fran at the end of August, they are just 2-10 the L12 head to head matchups overall. De La Rosa allowed five runs in his last start and is no match for Bumgarner. 6* San Francisco |
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09-09-16 | Reds v. Pirates -153 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -153 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates have won B2B games after taking last night's series opener 4-1. However, they remain four back of both the Mets & Giants for the NL Wildcards and thanks to dropping two of three to St. Louis earlier this week, they're 3.5 games back of them as well. So there's definite work that needs to be done if the club's fleeting playoff hopes are to remain alive. Fortunately, this weekend's opponent is Cincinnati, who should provide little resistance. As I already mentioned, the Bucs won last night 4-1. They scored three runs in the first inning and that held up thanks to a fantastic outing from Ivan Nova, who delivered a 94-pitch complete game. The vast majority of the outs were recorded via ground ball and the Reds finished the game w/ only six hits. While competitive at home (34-37), Cincy is pretty much a disaster on the road at 23-45 (-11.4 units). Go w/ the home team again tonight. The Reds come into this game as losers of five in a row and 9 of their last 11. Starter Tim Adleman seems ill-equipped to reverse the trend as he checks in w/ a 5.62 ERA his L3 starts, all of which the team has lost. He's allowed SEVEN home runs during that time span, which is clearly not good. Adleman's first big league start did come here at PNC Park (on May 1st) and surprisingly the Reds did win that game, 6-5 as +140 underdogs on the ML. But I don't expect history to repeat itself. Note Adleman has only lasted longer than five innings twice and has just two wins. Another issue for Cincy here is that OF Billy Hamilton is still out of the lineup. Pittsburgh will also be starting a rookie in this spot. Steven Brault remains winless in four career outings, but he's pitched well enough to give me confidence that he gets the job done here. His first three starts were all out on the road. Last time out, he made his PNC Park debut and allowed only one run in five innings. So pay no mind to the fact the Bucs lost that game 10-0 to the Brewers as it certainly wasn't Brault's fault. The Reds are only 11-19 in games when facing a left-handed starter, so the southpaw should keep them at bay and lead his team to a third consecutive victory. 8* Pittsburgh |
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09-08-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -153 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -153 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals enter Friday in a virtual tie w/ the Mets for the second Wild Card in the National League. Both teams are also just one-half game back of the rapidly fading Giants, who currently occupy the top Wild Card position. At this point, it looks like a three-team race for those two spots. Having lost yday in Pittsburgh, St. Louis can ill-afford to drop another game tonight, or the entire weekend for that matter, to Milwaukee. The Brewers have long been out of contention, so while they've won each of the L2 days (against the Cubs!), I don't see them ripping off any kind of prolonged win streak. The Cards are 11-4 this year vs. the Brew Crew and one has to believe they'll turn things around at home where shockingly they're just 30-37 for the season. The Redbirds' current run differential (+80) is third best in the N.L and sixth best overall in all of MLB. St. Louis will have to face Milwaukee's top pitcher Friday, that being Junior Guerra. He comes in sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and has a 7-2 TSR on the road. But Guerra's own record in those starts is just 2-1, indicating that he's had a little luck go his way. His ERA jumps nearly a full point higher away from Miller Park. This will be his third time starting against St. Louis this year and he's lost the first two due to giving up seven runs in 12 total innings. Neither game was particular close either w/ the Cards winning 6-0 and 5-1. Remember that this is the #2 offense in the NL that he'll be facing. St. Louis had scored 21 runs in the two games prior to yday's loss, not to mention had homered in 25 consecutive contests. While recent results have not been great for Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals starter has pitched well in the past against the Brewers. In 21 career starts, he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.131 WHIP, including a gem back in July where he went eight innings and gave up only one run. That was here at home as was a CG shutout (13-1 KW) back in April. Though he did take the loss his last time out, Friday in Cincinnati, note that Garcia allowed only two runs in six innings there. The Cards' home record may be disappointing, but the Brew Crew are just plain bad on the road at 23-41. 8* St. Louis |
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09-07-16 | Astros v. Indians -159 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians came into the series on quite the run. They'd swept their two previous opponents, Minnesota and Miami, and were a MLB-best 33-11 at home dating back to June 2nd (15-3 L18). Don't tell that to the Astros, however, as they've come in and surprisingly taken the first two of this four-game set. Monday saw a starter (Michael Fiers) with a poor track record on the road come in and deliver a surprisingly solid effort, holding Cleveland to just two runs. Tuesday, the Tribe looked to have a huge advantage w/ Corey Kluber on the hill and Houston having to scratch Dallas Keuchel. But one bad pitch from Kluber (3-run HR) essentially cost Cleveland the game. I can't see the AL Central leaders dropping a third straight home game, thus I'm on them again tonight. As is often the case with Cleveland, on paper, they look to have the pitching edge for tonight's matchup. They give the baseball to Carlos Carrasco, who continues to rack up impressive strikeout numbers. He fanned 11 batters in his last outing, which ended up being a 6-2 win last Friday over Miami. I played him in that spot (on the run line) and he didn't allow any runs over 7 1/3 innings. He now has an absurd 47-2 KW rate his L5 starts overall. While he hasn't faced Houston yet in 2016, he does own a 2.13 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in four career starts against them, one of those being a CG two-hitter w/ 12 K's! Opponents are hitting just .228 this year against Carrasco, who has a 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Astros are left to counter w/ Doug Fister, who was touched up for eight runs and 10 hits - in only 3 2/3 IP - by Texas his last time out. That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Fister allowed at least four runs (6.23 ERA). Those numbers may not be indicative of how Fister has pitched overall this season, but particularly concerning are his own strikeout totals of late. He has just ONE in his last two starts! That's what you basically get from Carrasco every inning. Another bad sign is that Fister has gone nine straight starts recording more outs via fly ball than ground ball. Houston has been hot, but I still trust Cleveland's 11-3 record as a home favorite of -150 to -175 on the money line as well as the fact that they're simply the better team. 8* Cleveland |
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09-07-16 | Mets -143 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (12:35 ET): The Mets are now 5-0 against the Reds this season after beating them 5-3 on Tuesday. They can now sweep them for a second time this season w/ another win this afternoon. While Cincinnati has been "game" at Great American Ballpark this season (34-36), the fact is they've dropped 11 of their last 15 games overall and even w/ Anthony DeSclafani on the bump, it does not appear this is a likely place for them to "get off the mat." The Mets counter w/ Noah Syndergaard, who is on a major roll. The Mets remain just two games back of the Cardinals (in the loss column) and this is a game they cannot afford to drop. Fortunately, day games have been kind to them this season w/ a 25-17 record. Syndergaard has turned in three straight phenomenal starts where his WHIP is a ridiculous 0.545. During that time, he's allowed only seven hits in 22 IP. First, it was eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at San Francisco (W 2-0). Then, seven innings while allowing only one run on two hits to Philadelphia. Last time out, he gave up two runs on three hits, but sadly still took the loss as the Mets fell to Washington, 4-1. Of Syndergaard's 26 starts this year, 18 have been quality. Thus, a 16-10 TSR seems grossly unfair, especially in light of a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP. Only Kyle Hendricks of Chicago and Madison Bumgarner of San Francisco have lower ERA's among qualified starters and Syndergaard also ranks 8th w/ 188 K's. All-time, his TSR vs. Cincinnati is 3-0 w/ a 2.42 ERA. In the earlier series this year, he finished w/ a 9-0 KW rate in a 5-3 win where he was a -210 favorite on the money line. This price, by comparison, looks like a steal. Keep in mind that the Mets aren't just perfect against the Reds this year; they've beaten them 13 times in a row dating back to 2014. Coming into today, they've won 13 of their last 17 regardless of opponent. Charged w/ reversing these trends is DeSclafani, who is having a great year on a bad team. But he doesn't appear to be the man for the job given his 0-3 career TSR vs. New York w/ a 12.27 ERA. Last season, he gave up five runs opposite Syndergaard and that's simply too many. Cincy's -124 run differential is 5th worst in all of MLB. 8* NY Mets |
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09-06-16 | Rangers v. Mariners -114 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Among critics, Texas is probably the most divisive team in recent MLB history. They very clearly have a talented roster and also own the best record in the American League at 82-56. But they also have a run differential of just +23 for the season, which works to an "expected" win total of only 71. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in either league. Monday saw them lose a game to Seattle (14-6) that had far more scoring than anyone could have anticipated w/ a pitching matchup of Hamels v. Hernandez. Seattle's run differential for the year is +21, almost identical to that of the Rangers, so the fact that the two teams are still separated by 12.5 games in the standings is misleading. I look for the M's to win big again at home tonight. This series is all about revenge from the Seattle perspective as they were swept down in Arlington just last week. But Monday was the second time they beat up on Hamels, knocking him out in the second inning. This Seattle team has been strong offensively for much of the year as they are just two runs away from ranking in the top 5 in the AL in runs scored. Given that they average 5.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter, I like their chances today facing Martin Perez, whose numbers on the road are not good at all. He has a 1-8 record in 13 starts (4-9 TSR) thanks to a 6.23 ERA and 1.564 WHIP. He's off a shockingly good showing, against Seattle no less, where he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. But given that he'd allowed six runs in B2B starts prior, regression should be in the cards tonight. Perez has a career 1.520 WHIP (nine starts) vs. the Mariners. Seattle comes back w/ James Paxton, who like all Mariners pitchers didn't have a good game in the last series w/ Texas. But his career numbers against the Rangers (2.32 ERA) suggest a bounce back is likely and what's really interesting here is that even though Paxton has a 4-11 TSR overall this season and Perez is at 15-13, it is the former that has both the better ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.364). I simply don't believe there's much difference between these two teams, thus the M's are being undervalued at Safeco Field. 10* Seattle |
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09-06-16 | Blue Jays -158 v. Yankees | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Don't look now, but the Yankees have somehow wormed their way back into playoff contention. Considering their run differential is not all that different from the 58-78 Rays, this is a complete shocker to me, especially in light of all the deals made near the trade deadline. Then again, tip your cap to skipper Joe Girardi, who has his team on pace to overachieve for a fourth consecutive season. I do not like them tonight, however, as I expect Toronto to bounce back from last night's 5-3 setback. The Blue Jays still lead the division (AL East) thanks to the fact Boston has lost each of the last two days. But they now have THREE teams within 5.5 games of them, so they can't afford to be dropping too many more games. Before they beat Baltimore 5-2 on Sunday, the Yankees had been shutout in consecutive games by the Orioles. They didn't have a single extra base hit in that series. So it's not as if this offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. Phenom Gary Sanchez has cooled off considerably. Today, they face Aaron Sanchez, who held Baltimore to only an unearned run in a victory his last time out. Toronto has won each of his L3 starts and he checks in w/ a 2.88 ERA (which is tops among all AL starters!) and a 1.16 WHIP. His 13-2 WL record is #1 as well in the American League (16-9 TSR) and is mostly owed to his dominance on the road where he is 8-1 w/ a 2.62 ERA. Sanchez has started twice this year against the Yanks and been dominant both times. He's allowed a total of two runs - only one earned - and 10 hits in 12 2/3 IP. New York counters with Luis Cessa, who will be making only his fourth start of the season. After a strong debut on 8.20, he's gotten a little bit shakier w/ each passing turn in the rotation. He's allowed four home runs the last two starts and put his team in an early four-run hole (which they were able to climb out of) his last time out. I feel that Toronto's offense is due to "bust loose" sooner rather than later. Note that the Jays are 9-4 this season, head to head w/ the Yankees. 8* Toronto |
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09-05-16 | Astros v. Indians -118 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have swept their last two opponents (Minnesota and Miami) and now lead the AL Central by 5.5 games over Detroit. It's a division that they are going to win, mark my words. While Tribe fans were ecstatic over yday's 6-5 walkoff win over the Marlins (payback for '97 World Series?), it left me w/ a bitter taste in my mouth as I had the Under 8.5, which looked like a "sure thing" until the ninth inning. The next opponent to come to Cleveland is Houston, who is desperately trying to get back into the Wild Card race. They trail Baltimore & Detroit by two full games entering today. It was also a one-run for the Astros yday, 8-7 over the Rangers, but they ended up allowing a ton of runs in that series and that's bad news for this trip to Progressive Field. I'm on the home team in this one. Mike Clevinger will be making a spot start for Cleveland in tonight's opener. It's something he did twice in August and both times the Indians won, so I'm a little surprised at the price we're able to get here. I was on Clevinger back on August 4th when he took the mound here at home against Minnesota. At the time, the Indians were facing the prospect of getting swept by the last place Twins, but Clevinger delivered 4 1/3 solid innings where he allowed only two runs. He was even better the last time we saw him as he held the Angels to only one run in 5 2/3 IP. Manager Terry Francona will likely turn to the bullpen sooner rather than later again tonight, but that's okay as he didn't have to use a ton of relievers throughout the Miami series. Houston will go w/ Michael Fiers and he's proven to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road. That's obviously problematic tonight. While he's 6-3 at Minute Maid Park (3.33 ERA, 1.198 WHIP), he's just 3-3 on the road (4-7 TSR) w/ a 5.80 ERA and 1.508 WHIP, ugly numbers indeed. Cleveland happens to be the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball, trailing only Colorado and Boston, at 5.8 rpg. They've won 15 of their last 18 games at Progressive Field and since June 2nd have the best home record in all of baseball at 33-11. This is just way too cheap of a price at home on a team that's as good as the Indians are. 10* Cleveland |
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09-05-16 | Cubs -191 v. Brewers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
5* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Like I said in the promo, this one appears to be pretty easy. The Cubs, without question, should be considered the favorite to win the World Series. Regardless of their history, the present has been very kind as this team is now 40 games above .500 w/ a 16.5 game lead in the division and +224 run differential (81 runs better than #2 team) following Sunday's thrilling walk-off win over the Giants (outhit SF 10-4). Meanwhile, Milwaukee may be coming off a sweep in Pittsburgh, including a 10-0 win Sunday, but the oddsmakers aren't buying them and neither am I. The Cubs have beaten the Brewers in 9 of 12 head to head meetings in 2016, including a four-game sweep in Wrigley last month. Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are the big names in the Cubs' starting rotation. But it is Kyle Hendricks that leads all of MLB in ERA (2.06) and is #2 in WHIP (0.981)! Lately, Hendricks has been particularly filthy w/ a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts. He just threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, vs. Pittsburgh. Milwaukee did beat Hendricks all the way back on May 17th w/ him allowing a season-high 4 ER. He's allowed 3 ER or less in his 18 starts since. In 10 of those, he's allowed 1 or 0 runs! The Brewers have been lucky to avoid Hendricks ever since May 17th, but their fortune changes today. I have no unearthly idea how Hendricks only has a 15-10 TSR. This is a pitcher you need to be looking to bet on moving forward. His bullpen just got done pitching 16 scoreless innings in the Giants' series. On the other side of the ledger, we have Milwaukee's Zach Davies. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes a disastrous trip to the mound against these Cubs. He allowed 7 ER and 10 hits in just 4 IP back on Aug 18 and obviously took the loss there. That was the last time these NL Central rivals faced off and it leaves the Cubs at 23-8 the L31 meetings overall. The Cubs are also an outstanding 40-23 in day games this season. The Brewers have lost the last three times after scoring 10+ runs the previous game, so this looks like a great time to fade as they simply don't measure up to this division foe. 5* Chi Cubs |
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09-04-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -173 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
8* Colorado (4:10 ET): The Rockies really let me down yday, losing 9-4 to the D'backs. As I said in the analysis though, this team (Colorado, that is) remains "better than it's record" (currently 65-70) as they have a run differential of +26, which up until yday was actually better than the Texas Rangers, who have the best record in the American League! I have the Rocks bouncing back from Saturday's defeat today as Arizona remains one of the worst teams in the sport w/ their own run differential of -138 ranking third worst. The D'backs are only 17-27 in day games this season, not to mention 22-34 off a win. It was certainly disappointing to see Colorado score only four runs yday. They had totaled 37 in the previous four games and are the highest scoring home team in the major at 6.4 rpg. The gap between them and the sixth highest scoring home team in the league (Baltimore) is larger than the gap betwee #6 and #29. The offense should rebound today facing Archie Bradley, who is hardly having a great season. Bradley has a 5.17 ERA and 1.595 WHIP his L3 starts and those numbers are only slightly worse than what we've seen from him over the course of the entire season. Note that while he hasn't been all that bad his L2 starts, he benefited from facing both Atlanta and Cincinnati at home. While Bradley does have a 3-0 career TSR vs. the Rockies, he is undeserving of it given that his ERA and WHIP are 4.38 and 1.703 respectively. The home team will counter w/ rookie Jon Gray, who is off B2B quality starts. Last time out, he kept the Dodgers scoreless over six innings and allowed only four hits. That was here at Coors Field. With 18 K's in his L2 starts, he now owns the franchise record for most strikeouts in a season by a rookie w/ 150. I like how manager Walt Weiss made the move to Gray for today, as opposed to Chad Bettis, who has struggled against Arizona this year. Overall, Colorado is still 9-6 this year vs. Arizona. They are clearly the better team. I imagine they'll show that today. 8* Colorado |