Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-22 | Barcelona FC -173 v. Alavés | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
7* Barcelona (3:00 ET): It’s a “must-have” three points for Barcelona on Sunday. The perennial La Liga heavyweight is coming off two straight losses, one in the Supercopa (3-2 to Real Madrid) and the other in the Copa del Rey (3-2 to Athletic Club). Both results were decided in AET. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s that Barca can now turn its full focus to league play and finishing in the top four. They are currently tied for 6th place with 32 points, only one back of the top four (with Atletico’s Saturday result still pending). Facing a bottom of the table side like Alaves should make for an easy evening. Despite a managerial change just prior to the new year, Alaves is winless in its last three fixtures and has picked up just two points from its last five. This leaves them perilously close to the foot of the table, in 19th, and three points adrift of safety. While a win would obviously be huge here for Alaves, there’s really no indication they are capable of even sharing the points in this spot. They are tied for the most losses in La Liga (12) and have scored the fewest number of goals in the league (16). After finishing 16th each of the last two seasons, it looks like it will be a struggle for Alaves to avoid relegation in 2022. Only Real Madrid and Sevilla, the top two sides in La Liga, have fewer losses than Barca’s four this season. One does have to go all the way back to January 2nd to find the last time they picked up a league win (1-0 over Mallorca), but they’ve only played one since (a 1-1 draw with Getafe). Before a run of more challenging fixtures (Atletico, Espanyol) on the domestic front and the Europa League resuming in February, it is imperative that the favorites get the full three here. That shouldn’t be hard against an Alaves side that has scored one goal or fewer in seven of its last eight fixtures. The one exception was a 5-2 loss. 7* Barcelona |
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01-23-22 | VfL Wolfsburg v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Coming off a 2-0 win last week over Stuttgart (my Game of the Week in the Bundesliga), Leipzig FINALLY has to feel like they’re ready to start moving up the table. That was their first away win of the campaign last week, so that’s a giant monkey off the back. But they are still just 7th in the table and in need of another win to (potentially) find themselves level with fourth place Hoffenheim. The fact Leipzig has a +13 YTD GD indicates that they will be a top four side by season’s end (they are already third in xPts), but don’t be surprised if they concede a goal (or two) on Sunday. Even as someone who had them, I had to admit Leipzig was lucky to keep a clean sheet last week as Stuttgart had numerous scoring chances that they failed to convert. A desperate Wolfsburg side comes to the Red Bull Arena this week and you can bet if given the opportunity, they will put a few in the net. Wolfsburg’s actual goal total of 17 is way off their expected goal total of 27.07. In Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only La Liga’s Athletic Club has a larger discrepancy. What that tells me is Wolfsburg is due a few goals in the upcoming fixtures. Incredibly, Wolfsburg has not scored in any of their last three encounters. They are coming off a 0-0 draw with Hertha Berlin, which extended their winless run to 10 straight across all competitions, which goes back to November and includes a Champions League exit. Given their xG total and how Leipzig was lucky to keep a “clean sheet” last week, I’ve just got to think that Wolfsburg is due to score here. If they do, then the Over is all but assured as Leipzig has put up eight goals in three matches since returning from the Winter Break. 9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig |
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01-22-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Brentford OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford (10:00 AM ET): It’s somewhat incredible just how low-scoring Wolves’ matches have been this Premier League campaign. Not only are they scoring less than one goal per match, they are also conceding fewer than one goal per match. The 32 total goals scored in Wolves’ matches this season is easily an EPL-low. The next fewest would be 43 from Burnley and they’ve played three fewer times. Moving forward, you’ve got to think we’re due for an uptick in scoring when the Wolves are on the pitch. Last time out may have been a sign as they scored three times in a win over Southampton. The Wolves enter Saturday six points back of the top four. So a win here could cut that deficit in half. They are facing Brentford, a newly promoted side for 2021/22 that got off to a good start, but has recently begun to fade. The Bees suffered a 3-1 defeat midweek to Manchester United. This leaves them down in 14th place in the table, still well clear of the drop zone, but also unlikely to make a serious run at a top half finish. Brentford actually has a higher number of xPts than Wolverhampton, but that’s not doing them any good right now. The Wolves’ xGA is 26.04, a massive difference from the actual number of goals (15) they’ve conceded this season. No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has allowed a fewer number of goals relative to their xGA. It’s essentially the reverse of what I talked about with Levante in the other writeup. The Wolves are due to start conceding more as the season progresses. But they are also probably due to score more as well. Like I said earlier, last time out was perhaps a sign of things to come and now they face a Brentford side that has conceded a total of 10 goals in its last three Premier League matchups. 7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford |
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01-22-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim (9:30 AM ET): Two of the top four in the Bundesliga meet here. Dortmund is now hot on the heels of Bayern Munich as they are only six points back of the top of the table. Last week, it was a 5-1 thrashing of Freiburg, but I don’t look for a repeat of that performance here. Not after BVB just suffered a humiliating defeat midweek in the DFB-Pokal to second tier side St. Pauli, 2-1. Hoffenheim was also ousted from that tournament, 4-1, at the hands of Freiburg. They are currently fourth in the German top flight with 31 points, only ahead of FC Union Berlin on goal differential. Dortmund’s 49 goals this season are second most in the Bundesliga, trailing only Bayern Munich. But xG says they’ve been lucky to score that many. This side’s expected goal total is just 38.62. Among Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overperformed its expected goal total by a wider margin. So much of this side’s future depends on what Erling Haaland chooses to do next, but I can also say BVB was lucky to score five times in their last match as the metrics indicated it should have been a much tighter affair. Note that only 18 of Dortmund’s 49 goals this season have been scored on the road. Things had been looking good for Hoffenheim until the last week or so as they’ve dropped two straight competitions. Last time in the Bundesliga, they were beaten 2-1 by FC Union Berlin, a huge result as it leveled those two sides in fourth place. Huge for this fixture is the fact that Hoffenheim has conceded only nine times on home soil this season. That’s a big difference from the 20 times they’ve conceded on their travels. I expect a surprisingly low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim |
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01-22-22 | Mainz -120 v. SpVgg Greuther Furth | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
10* Mainz (9:30 AM ET): After a disappointing midweek exit from the DFB-Pokal. Mainz needs to concentrate on moving up the Bundesliga table. Despite currently being in only 10th place, they are just four points back of the top four. So a win here would be huge for Die Nullfunfer and wouldn’t you know … they are matched up with the worst side in the league, Greuther Furth, whose chances of escaping the relegation zone have been dire for some time now. Look for Mainz to get the full three (points) here. It was certainly disappointing for Mainz to lose 3-1 midweek to Bochum, a side they’d just beaten three days earlier here in league play. But perhaps that exit from the DFB-Pokal can be a blessing as Mainz can now concentrate on the task at hand, that being strengthening their position in the German top flight. Usually, in the bottom half of the table, Mainz is having a great 2021/22 Bundesliga season by their standard. With a +6 YTD goal differential, they probably deserve to be a bit higher in the table. They are actually a surprising fifth in xPts. Mainz has delivered a “clean sheet” each of the last three times they’ve faced a side in the bottom half of the table, outscoring the opposition 8-0. True to that form, they defeated Greuther Furth 3-0 in the reverse fixture back in August. It just doesn’t get any worse than Furth, who is firmly in last place with only seven points this season. They need to make up an 11-point gap to escape relegation and that’s just not happening. Furth is unbeaten in its last three, but all were draws and two were goalless. This side has a -36 YTD GD and just one win. 10* Mainz |
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01-22-22 | Cadiz CF v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
8* Under Cadiz/Levante (8:00 AM ET): The two bottom sides in La Liga meet on Saturday with the three available points being critical to each’s chances for survival for next season. Levante is in bigger trouble right now as they are at the foot of the table with only 11 points. Cadiz, off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol earlier in the week, has 15. But that’s still five adrift of safety. I really thought long and hard about taking Levante in this spot, as I think they’re better than Cadiz and have been really unlucky this season. But trusting a team that just picked up its first win of the season two weeks ago seems risky. What I do know is that Levante has been incredibly unfortunate to concede a league-high 41 goals this season. In terms of xGA (expected goals allowed), they are only at 30.92. Their gap in xGA and actual goals allowed is easily the largest in all of La Liga. In fact, it’s the largest difference of any side in Europe’s “Big 4” leagues! But Levante did just keep a “clean sheet” their last time on “the pitch,” beating Mallorca 2-0. Now they are set to face a Cadiz side that is tied for the second fewest number of goals scored in La Liga. I could see another clean sheet here for Levante. At the very most, they’ll concede just once. Cadiz is coming off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol, but that result included both sides scoring a goal in stoppage time. The expected goal total for the match was only 2.72, a big difference from the actual number of 4.0. That draw snapped Cadiz’s streak of eight consecutive matches scoring one goal or fewer. They hadn’t scored a single goal in three straight before Tuesday’s draw. Incredibly, Cadiz has gone five straight La Liga matches with an expected goal total below 1.0! A goalless draw is a real possibility here, or maybe a 1-0 Levante win. But I cannot see more than two combined goals scored. 8* Under Cadiz/Levante |
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01-19-22 | Tottenham Hotspur +140 v. Leicester | Top | 3-2 | Win | 140 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
9* Tottenham (2:30 ET): Tottenham Hotspur has not tasted defeat since Antonio Conte took over, but they’ve also failed to produce B2B EPL wins during their new boss’ tenure. One would have to go all the way back to New Year’s Day to find the last time the Spurs played a Premier League fixture. That was a 1-0 win over Watford. Since that time, they’ve been ousted from the Carabao Cup by Chelsea and also progressed in the FA Cup. The club was not happy with Sunday’s derby vs. Arsenal being postponed (COVID) but I think this midweek clash is a wonderful opportunity to make a statement. The Spurs are currently just four points off the top four in the table. Even better for them is that they have played at least two fewer matches than all the sides they are chasing. A win here would mean passing Arsenal into fifth place. Everyone in the top four has played at least 21 matches this season (Tottenham has played only 18), so there is still plenty of time to track down that fourth Champions League spot, currently held by West Ham. With a fixture against top three Chelsea looming this weekend, I think it’s paramount for the Spurs to pick up the full three points on Wednesday. Leicester City is down in 10th place, which doesn’t sound that far back of where Tottenham is, but there is an eight point gap between the two sides, who have played the exact same number of matches. Leicester hasn’t played a league match since late December with the lone time on the pitch in January being a 4-1 win over Watford in the FA Cup. So there’s a good chance the Foxes will be rusty here. No team outside the bottom six has conceded more goals and xG says they are a little fortunate to have scored 31 times this campaign. Leicester is also bottom five in xPts. All things considered, this is a solid price to take Tottenham. 9* Tottenham |
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01-17-22 | Napoli -105 v. Bologna | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
10* Napoli (12:30 ET): Let’s fade Bologna for a second straight time. It worked out on Tuesday, when they lost 2-1 to Cagliari, a side nowhere near as good as the one I Rossoblu will face today. Napoli is currently third in the Serie A table, seven points adrift of the top. But it wasn’t all that long ago that they looked like the strongest side in the entire league. Napoli began the season with eight straight wins and 12-match unbeaten run. Unfortunately, they’ve slipped a bit, failing to post back to back victories over their last 13 competitions and have just three wins in their last 10 domestic fixtures. But one of those three wins was last week, 1-0 over Sampdoria, which was reminiscent of the hot start to 2021/22. Napoli dominated possession (69%) and it was their 10th clean sheet this Serie A season. Unfortunately, it was a much different tune midweek in the Coppa Italia where they were down to nine men by the end of the match and lost 5-2. That was a very misleading score with three of the goals conceded coming in AET. As I discussed prior to the last fixture, Bologna has been hit hard by COVID recently. That and the fact they have a -5 goal differential in the year have me thinking this side is going to quietly remain in the bottom half of the table the rest of the way. They’re now down to 13th and have conceded nine times while losing four of their last five. It was a convincing 3-0 win by Napoli in the reverse fixture back in October. No one in Serie A has conceded fewer times this season than Napoli’s 15. 10* Napoli |
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01-16-22 | Villarreal -132 v. Elche | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
10* Villarreal (8:00 ET): Still a month away from their next Champions League commitment, I believe it’s imperative that Villarreal starts their move up the La Liga table NOW. The Yellow Submarine currently sit in eighth place (29 points), but are third in the league in goal differential (+11) and fourth in xPts (35.68). I fully expect this to be a top five side by the end of the season. Villarreal is in form currently as they are on a six-match unbeaten run in La Liga with wins in four of the last five matches. I like them here on Sunday against a bottom of the table side. Elche has also displayed relatively good form of late, losing only one of their last five matches across all competitions and picking up four points from their last two La Liga fixtures. They’re on a three-match unbeaten streak, but unlike Villarreal, I’m not at all excited about Los Franjiverdes' prospects. This is a side that finished dead last in xPts last season in La Liga and is currently second from the bottom in that regard (ahead of only Cadiz) for 2021/22. I very much feel it’s going to be a struggle for them to avoid relegation as they are currently just two points clear of safety entering Sunday. It was a 4-1 Villarreal win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, so they’ve already proven this is a side that they can dominate. Completing a double over Elche would move the Yellow Submarine within one point of the Champions League places. It should be noted that only table leaders Real Madrid have scored more goals this term than Villarreal’s 33. They’ve scored multiple goals in each of their last four La Liga fixtures. Look for them to get the full three points here. 10* Villarreal |
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01-15-22 | RB Leipzig -165 v. Stuttgart | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
10* RB Leipzig (9:30 ET): This HAS to be the time. For those that are unaware (and I assume that’s most of you), Leipzig has yet to win an away game this entire Bundesliga season. It’s why they currently sit ninth in the table with only 25 points. But a +11 goal differential, stemming from last week’s 4-1 thrashing of Mainz, tells me Leipzig is set to ascend. They are third on xPts this season after finishing FIRST in that regard last season. Does anyone really dispute that Leipzig is going to finish top four? I certainly don’t. When you look at the goal differential column, you can see a chasm developing in the middle of the Bundesliga table. On the wrong side of that chasm is Stuttgart, who was promoted to the German top flight last season, and is currently sitting in 15th with 18 points. Die Roten is tied with Augsburg for the relegation playoff spot and only one point clear of safety. They have a -9 goal differential and despite the return of their leading goalscorer last week, it was a 0-0 draw with bottom of the table Greuther Furth. There’s a seven-point gap between these two sides, but really it should be much larger than that. It’s a 14-point difference in xPts. I know that Leipzig really benefited from Mainz being down to 10 men (red card) last week, but they showed no mercy to their opponent. What makes things even worse here for the hosts (Stuttgart) is that they are going to be without at least three players and that number could double due to positive COVID-19 tests. Leipzig seems to be especially unlucky to have just four points (all draws) on the road this season as they have 11.06 xPts. 10* RB Leipzig |
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01-11-22 | Bologna v. Cagliari | Top | 1-2 | Win | 107 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
8* Cagliari +0.5 (2:45 ET) - Take Cagliari +0.5 here (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this Tuesday Serie A clash, which had to be hastily rescheduled (because of COVID) after a Sunday postponement. Whereas my last Serie A play was a byproduct of projected mid-table reshuffling, this is a case where one side (Cagliari) is clearly in need of points so that it can escape the relegation zone. I think they’ll at least get one here, if not the full three. Cagliari is off a win as it returned from winter break with a huge 2-1 win over Sampdoria. That moved them past Genoa into 18th place with 13 points, but they are still four points adrift of safety and that’s why this fixture is so key. After hosting Bologna on Tuesday, the next four fixtures will all come against sides occupying spots in the top half of the table. So points will probably be few and far between in that stretch. Winning here is pretty key for survival, and given the visitors’ current circumstance, Cagliari’s chances of winning B2B matches looks pretty good. Prior to the postponement of this fixture, Bologna also had Thursday’s match vs. Inter Milan controversially waved off (at the last minute) due to a COVID outbreak in their ranks. They’ve been forced into isolation and unable to train for Cagliari. Throw in the fact that Bologna already felt like an overachieving side due to tumble (-4 YTD goal differential) and I don’t see how they win here. They’ve won just three times in nine chances away this season. 8* Cagliari +0.5 |
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01-09-22 | Sassuolo Calcio v. Empoli | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 40 h 3 m | Show |
7* Sassuolo +0.0 (6:30 AM ET): Take Sassuolo (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this early Sunday morning (EST) clash in Serie A. Both sides are in fact coming off draws mid-week: Sassuolo 1-1 with Genoa and Empoli 3-3 with Lazio. While they both feel like they left two points on the table, it’s Sassuolo that has the stronger claim and as I’m about to get into, I Neroverdi has actually been the stronger side this season (despite currently being three points adrift of Sunday’s opponent). Sassuolo fell behind just six minutes into its first fixture of 2022. Facing a bottom of the table side like Genoa, on home soil no less, that had to be a terrible feeling. But shortly after halftime, Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi was able to strike with an equalizer, allowing his side to at least earn a share of the points. Sassuolo had an incredible 28 shot attempts in the match (compared to just 4 for Genoa!) and dominated possession (74% to 26%), so they really should have been victorious. Empoli probably feels the same way after blowing an early 2-0 against Lazio and letting in a stoppage time equalizer. But the fact of the matter is that Empoli lost the possession battle (62% to 38%), had 12 fewer shot attempts and benefited from a VAR reversal of a Lazio goal. I had Lazio on Thursday and as I said in the analysis, Empoli should feel very fortunate to be sitting ninth in the table. They are actually sitting below Sassuolo in both xPts and GD right now. The visitors have suffered only one defeat in their last eight fixtures. 7* Sassuolo |
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01-08-22 | Barcelona FC -129 v. Granada | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -129 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Barcelona (12:30 ET): Despite being hit hard by COVID, Barcelona has picked up a couple of wins over the last week. A return from the winter break in La Liga saw them down Mallorca 1-0. Then they were victorious 2-1 over Linares in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday. That was quite the effort and also something that was well earned. Despite all the “doom and gloom” that’s surrounded them in this 2021/22 season, Barca has actually played much better than they are given credit for. Entering the weekend, they are 2nd in La Liga in xPts. Doing well in xPts won’t necessarily get you to the Champions League though. You’ve got to finish in the top four. But even in this regard, there’s no reason for the market to be so down on Barcelona. They are currently fifth in the La Liga table, but only two points back of third. A win Saturday would see them leapfrog both Atletico Madrid and Real Betis. Despite being without several key players, Barca should get it done and grab the full three points here. Granada is the opponent, an inferior side. Though Granada is coming off B2B top 10 finishes in La Liga, they were very fortunate to end up in the top half of the table last season as they were actually third from the bottom in xPts. They’re in the same spot (in expected points) this season! Barcelona was actually 1st in xPts last season, so I just don’t understand the hand-wringing with them. While unbeaten in the last three La Liga fixtures, Granada has been down in xG in two of them. Barcelona is simply a much better side and will continue their move up the table on Saturday. 10* Barcelona |
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01-06-22 | Empoli v. Lazio -155 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -155 | 41 h 22 m | Show |
8* Lazio (8:30 AM ET): Only four points currently separate eighth place Lazio and ninth place Empoli in the Serie A table. However, the gap should likely be a lot larger than that, at least based on the two sides’ respective goal differentials. Lazio is +5 on the season while Empoli is -4. Even that difference is a bit understated when you consider Empoli is just 15th in xPts (expected points). A win here would move Lazio into a fifth place tie with Juventus as a trip to face first place Inter looms this weekend. Getting the full three points here would be huge for the home side. I think they pull out the win. Empoli comes in winless over their last two matches. They played to a 1-1 draw with Spezia, then were beaten 4-2 by AC Milan right before the break. That loss to AC Milan was their only defeat in the last seven competitions, however I’m anticipating a slide in the new year based on the fact Empoli will face three of three of the top eight Serie A sides here in January. While they have scored 15 goals over the last seven matches, the last time Empoli was able to keep a “clean sheet” was September 26th. They have the third highest number of expected goals allowed in the league this year. Nevertheless, Empoli has to be feeling rather good about itself in its first year back in the Italian top flight. They’ve already created a 16-point gap between themselves and the drop zone, so it looks like they’ll be back for next season, which was the only goal coming into 2021/22. Meanwhile, Lazio is hungry for one of the European spots and needs to move up. Having the second best home record in Serie A, I Biancocelesti should prevail here, building off their victories over Genoa and Venezia (both three-goal efforts) before the break. 8* Lazio |
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01-06-22 | Verona +149 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 2-1 | Win | 149 | 41 h 21 m | Show |
9* Hellas Verona (8:30 AM ET): In the Lazio-Empoli writeup, I discussed the gap that exists in the middle of the table right now. Lazio is on the right side of it and should continue to move up. The two teams below them, Empoli and Bologna, should start to fall. One team that should be looking to take advantage is Verona, who comes in 12th in the table with 24 points, but has a better GD than either Empoli and Bologna. A win here would potentially move Verona into the top half, which is where I think they belong. Spezia is most definitely a bottom five side this season, not a shock considering they were only promoted back into Serie A last season. Currently five points clear of the drop zone, Spezia did pull off its most impressive win of the season last time out, stunning Napoli 1-0 in Naples. But before that, they had been winless in seven straight across all competitions, which includes a 2-0 loss to second tier side Lecce in the Coppa Italia last month. Spezia currently has the third worst GD (-20) in all of Serie A. This is pretty close to a “must win” for Verona, if they want to have any hope of being reduced to a “mid-table” side the rest of the way. Ultimately, that will probably be their fate, but this is a fixture they should win. It’s a four-match winless run that they are on, with three losses, creating a sense of urgency here. They destroyed Spezia 4-0 back in October. It’s not going to be quite that lopsided on Thursday, but you should look for the visitors to grab all three points. 9* Hellas Verona |
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01-03-22 | Ath Bilbao v. Osasuna OVER 2 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna (3:00 ET): I’m of the opinion that Athletic Bilbao should be a lot higher in the La Liga table. They currently sit in 11th place, but in xPts they are 4th. The biggest reason for that discrepancy seems to be an extraordinary lack of luck when it comes to scoring goals. The difference between the number of actual goals scored (17) and xG (expected goals) is -11.29, easily the largest in La Liga and any of Europe’s biggest four leagues, for that matter. As 2022 gets underway, I think you should look for more goals from Athletic Club moving forward. I’m on the Over this week. Osasuna is another mid-table side, currently 14th with 22 points. That’s only two adrift of their opponents this week and they’ve scored the same number of goals on the campaign. The difference though is Osasuna has conceded six more goals than Athletic Bilbao. It’s been a long time since Los Rojillos won in the Spanish top flight, mid-October to be precise, but three of the last four have finished level, including a 2-2 draw with Barcelona back on Dec 12th. But they are coming off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Getafe before the break where the lone goal was scored in stoppage time (93rd minute). While Osasuna has been kept scoreless in two of its last three La Liga fixtures, they did score six goals in two wins in the Copa del Rey last month. We don't need many goals here to cash an Over here and with Athletic Club due to break out, I wouldn’t be surprised if they send this one Over themselves. But I’m predicting both sides will get on the scoresheet in this one. It was 2-2 in the most recent meeting, which was back in May. The last two Bilbao matches have seen five and three total goals scored. 10* Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna |
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01-03-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Manchester United -175 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
7* Manchester United (12:30 ET): While COVID continues to wreak havoc on the Premier League schedule, the predominant story on the pitch is going to be who can rise up and finish fourth in the English top flight. The top three sides in this league are well-established and it’s looking more and more like Man City is going to make it B2B titles. But the race for the final Champions League spot is wide open and going to be quite interesting. Both Man U and the Wolves fancy themselves as “players” in the race, but I’m with the oddsmakers here in giving a strong edge to the Red Devils at home. Manchester United is currently only four points adrift of fourth place Arsenal and they have two games in hand. So they’re in a good spot right now, especially on an eight-match unbeaten run, which coincides with the arrival of new boss Ralf Rangnick. The new manager bounce seems quite real at Old Trafford where Man U were 3-1 winners over Burnley on Thursday. That was a solid effort following a disappointing 1-1 draw with Newcastle United. The bottom line is that the Red Devils know they can not afford to share the points in this critical fixture and three straight home wins tells me they’re likely to capture the full three here. Wolverhampton has dealt with two straight postponements and was last on the pitch all the way back on 12/19 when they played to a goalless draw vs. Chelsea. Certainly, a result like that shows the Wolves won’t “roll over” for Man U here, but they are the second lowest scoring side in the EPL and have failed to score more than one goal in eight consecutive matches. True to form, the Wolves lost 1-0 last season here at Old Trafford. They are only two spots back of Man U, but it’s a six-point difference and the Wolves have just one win in their last six EPL fixtures. 7* Manchester United. |
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12-28-21 | Norwich City v. Crystal Palace -156 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace (10:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace is a Premier League side that ought to have more points. They’re actually seventh in xPts (expected points), but have been particularly unfortunate when it comes to the number of goals conceded (allowed seven more than expected) and as a result, the Eagles currently sit 12th in the table with just 20 points. COVID left them short-handed on Boxing Day as they took a 3-0 loss across London at the hands of Tottenham. They’ll still be down as many as six men for Tuesday’s fixture, but you’ve got to think that Norwich City is the most ideal opponent to face here. Norwich continues to sit at the foot of the table (in last) with only 10 points taken from their 18 EPL matches. It’s a little shocking to see that the Canaries remain only three points (one win) away from safety in the relegation battle, but that has as much to do with other sides (Watford, Burnley) having at least two matches in hand. I’ve felt from the beginning of the campaign that Dean Smith’s side is a lock to be relegated at season’s end and nothing I’ve seen thus far has done anything to dissuade me. Sunday’s ugly 5-0 loss to Arsenal leaves Norwich with a league-worst -31 goal differential. They are not good. While both sides were kept clean less than 48 hours ago, the fact CP played with only 10 men for the majority of the match should be taken into account. Sure, it was already 2-0 by the point, but the fact it didn’t get a whole lot uglier is probably a feather in the Eagles’ cap. Again, I feel they’ve played better than what the record shows. Their number of losses (6) this season is equal to that of top four Arsenal. Being the “kings of the draw” (8) hasn’t helped, but this is a most favorable fixture where CP should collect the full three points. They are unbeaten (with three wins) the last five times they’ve taken on Norwich. 10* Crystal Palace |
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12-20-21 | Valencia v. Levante | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
7* Levante (3:00 ET): Poor Levante. The Frogs are still winless this season and at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) with only eight points taken from their first 17 matches. They are seven points adrift of safety (meaning getting out of the relegation zone), so wins are desperately needed at this point. But with more than half (9 of 17) of Levante’s results this season ending up as draws, I thought it would be a wise move to play them on the goal line. Underlying metrics suggest Levante should be much higher in the table as they actually rank 13th in xPts (22.08) with the number of goals conceded seemingly being a very unlucky number. Now the opposition is in good form as Valencia is undefeated in eight straight across all competitions, including victories in each of the last four. That includes a couple wins this month in the Copa del Rey. Los Che currently sit 8th in the La Liga table, only four points behind fourth place Atletico Madrid. But this side has been a bit lucky throughout the campaign. Not just in a 2-1 win over Elche last week (where they lost the possession battle), but also coming from behind to beat Celta Vigo by the same scoreline two weeks ago. There was also a crazy draw with Atletico earlier in the season where Valencia was able to rally back from a two-goal deficit. On the flip side, Levante seemed a bit unlucky to end up with a 4-3 loss to Espanyol last week. Twice the Frogs blew a one-goal advantage. That they’ve yet to win since a managerial change is a bit surprising as typically there is a “bounce” after such a move is made. Note that three of Valencia’s last five results in La Liga have been draws and they lost the corresponding fixture here in Levante 1-0 last season. I have a “feeling” that it’s time for the hosts to pick up their first win of the season, but the GL protects us in case of a draw. 7* Levante |
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12-19-21 | Liverpool -154 v. Tottenham Hotspur | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -154 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
8* Liverpool (11:30 AM ET): COVID-19 has begun to ravage the EPL schedule, but this match between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur is still on. Both sides are top seven in the table and dealing with absences due COVID. Liverpool is second, only one point behind Manchester City, and has the best GD in the EPL right now at +35. The Spurs are down in seventh with 25 points, which is now seven adrift of the Champions League places. As I’ve written before, there’s a large gap between the top three in the table and everyone else. Look for that to be on display Sunday. Tottenham will be coming off a long layoff as they’ve not been on the pitch since a 3-0 win over bottom of the table Norwich City back on Dec 5. That’s a full two weeks off with three postponements. The Spurs now have two games in hand over virtually all Premier League sides. But a -1 YTD GD tells me they are unlikely to make up the current gap between themselves and the top four. They are even lower in xPts (ranking only 15th!), which indicates there’s been some good fortune in getting to where they’re at. The Spurs’ number of goals scored this season (16) is fourth fewest in the Premier League. The “rust” Tottenham might be dealing with is one story coming into Sunday. Another is Liverpool’s dominance in the recent history of this fixture. Tottenham has one just one of the last 17 meetings, losing 12. While the Spurs have won their last three EPL matches, it’s been over a year since they won four in a row. Liverpool is a step in quality from the last three sides that Tottenham has beaten. The Reds have also scored a league-leading 48 goals this campaign. Incredibly, after a 3-1 win over Newcastle United on Thursday, Liverpool has a 34-match unbeaten run in the league in the month of December. Thursday’s win at Anfield made it eight straight wins across all competitions, six of those coming in the Premier League. 8* Liverpool |
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12-15-21 | RB Leipzig -192 v. FC Augsburg | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -192 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
6* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): At the outset of my analysis for Tuesday’s *10* Bundesliga Game of the Week play (a winner!), I discussed the surprisingly small gap in points that existed between the two sides. The side I went with (Mainz) was only three points ahead of its opponent (Hertha Berlin) going into matchday 16. That shocked me given Mainz’s superior form this season as well as their vastly better YTD goal differential. Thus I was not really all that shocked to see my side prevail 4-0 on Tuesday. I see some real similarities between yday’s selection and this one here on RB Leipzig. The perennial Bundesliga currently sits only 9th in the table with 21 points. That’s only five points ahead of Wednesday’s opponent, Augsburg, who you’ll typically find sitting near the bottom of the table. This season is no different for Fuggerstadter as they are 16th in the table, a place which would mean the relegation playoff at season’s end. The fact that Leipzig is only five points ahead of them is a stunner, especially when you look at the respective goal differentials (Leipzig is +10, Augsburg is -9). Now we all know the reason why Leipzig is currently a mid-table side. They’ve yet to win a single away match this season. The only other side in the Bundesliga that can say that is relegation-bound Greuther Furth. But with a new manager on the sideline (Domenico Tedesco), Leipzig ran out to a 4-1 win (at home) LW over Gladbach. Now is the time for that elusive first away win as the oddsmakers clearly expect it and so do I. Augsburg is not only an inferior opponent, but one that is dealing with absences in the starting XI. 6* RB Leipzig |
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12-14-21 | Hertha Berlin v. Mainz -104 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
10* Mainz 05 (2:30 ET): Believe it or not, these two sides are separated by just three points in the Bundesliga table. That seems crazy to me as I think a rather massive “chasm” exists between the top eight and the rest of the field in this year’s German top flight. Mainz currently sits in 8th place with 21 points, but they are even higher on xPts and I think a threat to challenge to finish fourth (in what should be a wide open race). Having displayed strong form on the pitch at home all season, Mainz should get the full three points on Tuesday. Hertha Berlin certainly seemed to benefit from the “new manager bounce” over the weekend as they beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 in Tayfun Korkut’s debut on the sidelines. However, that was a bottom two side Hertha defeated on Saturday. They are actually tied with Bielefeld for the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga (-12) and I’ve tabbed this side as one that is quite likely to find itself finishing 16th at the end of the season, which would mean they’d be in the relegation playoff. I think a second straight win for Hertha is out of the question here. That would draw them level with Mainz, which seems absurd given the season-long form displayed by the respective sides. Mainz has suffered just one defeat in its last nine meetings with Hertha. Yes, Mainz did lose on Sunday, but that was to Bayern Munich away and they actually had an early 1-0 lead. This is their best start to a Bundesliga season in over a decade and it continues here. 10* Mainz 05 |
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12-12-21 | Union Berlin -137 v. SpVgg Greuther Furth | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin (9:00 ET): You HAVE to play against Greuther Furth at this price, right? Their return to the Bundesliga has resulted in one draw and 13 losses as it is looking painfully obvious this will be a “one and done” return to the German top flight. Incredibly, Greuther Furth has lost its last 12 matches while conceding 39 goals and scoring only 10 of their own. This is easily the worst side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. As for Union Berlin, a win Sunday would lift them into a fourth place tie. With only three losses this season, FCUB is well positioned to make a run at the Champions League for next season. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are the two locks for the top four, but the other two spots are very much wide open. Expect Leipzig to make a run, but as of right now Union Berlin is two points ahead of them after a 2-1 victory last week. Adding to the favorite’s motivation is the fact that they just had their Europa Conference League run come to an end midweek. They will want to waste no time getting back on track and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to do so against. Furth is hopeless right now, having conceded 13 goals in their last two matches alone. They were beaten 7-1 by Leverkusen last week. 10* Union Berlin |
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12-11-21 | Borussia Dortmund -180 v. VfL Bochum | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -180 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
7* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Dortmund looks to get over the recent disappointments of losing Der Klassiker and failing to qualify for the Round of 16 in the Champions League as they head to Bochum Saturday. There was really no shame in either of their last two fixtures. Yes, they lost for a seventh straight time to Bayern (3-2) last week. But BVB still sits second in the Bundesliga table only four points adrift of their rivals. There were no ill-effects shown midweek as BVB thrashed Besiktas 5-0 in their final match of the UCL Group Stage. While that wasn’t enough to get them to the knockout stage, a 5-0 win in this sport is impressive, no matter what way you slice it. As for Bochum, surprisingly they’ve got the better recent form (compared to BVB) in Bundesliga action. Having taken the full three points in five of their last seven fixtures, the newly promoted side is up to 10th in the table with some space between them and the relegation zone. It was probably a critical three points that Bochum picked up last week as they held on for a 3-2 win over 16th place Augsburg. As of now, I do give this side a decent shot of survival in the German top flight. However, they are pretty clearly not in the same class as Dortmund. Obviously, Erling Haaland is a major reason to endorse Dortmund in this fixture. While he’s played only 130 minutes since his return, Haaland has scored four times and now has 17 goals in 13 matches played. He makes his side clearly the #2 team in the Bundesliga. Dortmund has scored multiple goals in seven of its last eight Bundesliga matches. Bochum has scored only 15 goals all season. While they’ve been better of late, they are still no match for BVB. 7* Borussia Dortmund |
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12-10-21 | FC Augsburg v. FC Koln -148 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -148 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
8* FC Koln (2:30 ET): Koln is having a better than anticipated season in the Bundesliga. Coming into matchday 15, the Billy Goats are sitting ninth in the table with 19 points. They’d be even higher if not for being “kings of the draw” (league-leading seven of those). But their three losses are tied for second fewest. Only the German top flight’s standard bearer, Bayern Munich, has tasted defeat on fewer occasions. The fact Koln has fewer losses than Dortmund at this point of the season is downright shocking. Koln comes into Friday on a four-match unbeaten streak, though three of those results have been draws, including last week’s 1-1 final against Arminia Bielefeld. As for Koln’s opponent this week, things are looking a lot more dicey. Augsburg is used to seeing Koln “nearby” in the table as both clubs perennially find themselves fending off relegation. But as detailed above, Koln is in a good spot right now. Augsburg is down in 16th, which would mean the relegation playoff if things hold. There’s a long way to go, but I see Fuggerstadter’s status in the Bundesliga being very much in doubt. We know that Greuther Furth is a virtual lock for relegation. But then it’s Augsburg, Bielefeld and probably Hertha Berlin being the sides most likely to have to fight for survival. Augsburg is 16th in both goals scored and conceded thus far and their GD is -14. Last week saw Augsburg lose 3-2 to Bochum, a freshly promoted side for this season. It wasn’t even really all that close as Augsburg fell behind 3-0 by halftime. The big key to this match is that it takes place at RheinEnergieStadion where Koln has not tasted defeat and outscored opposing sides 17-9 this season. Augsburg is not only winless in its seven away matches this season, they’ve scored only three goals! 8* FC Koln |
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12-05-21 | Crystal Palace v. Manchester United -165 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
7* Manchester United (9:00 AM ET): The managerial debut of Raif Radnick takes place Sunday at Old Trafford with Man U welcoming in Crystal Palace for some Premier League action. We’ll see if the typical “new manager bounce” benefits Man U the same way it has for so many other soccer sides through the years. The Red Devils could certainly use it. They are currently seventh in the table and six points adrift of the top four. With 4th place West Ham shocking Chelsea on Saturday, the gap between the Champions League places and everyone else is growing. So the three points are critical for Man U as they can cut their own deficit in half. I think Crystal Palace is somewhat of an underrated side. While they are in 11th in table, the Eagles are sixth in xPts (expected points), which is actually higher than United. But it’s going to be VERY difficult for Palace to get over their 1-0 loss at Leeds United last match week. I had CP +0.5 in that one and watched in horror as they conceded the match’s lone goal in stoppage time, on a penalty no less. The penalty only came about because of VAR, an additional “kick in the teeth.” Palace was somewhat dominated on possession though, so perhaps it was a deserved defeat. While Tuesday was just the fourth loss of the campaign for Palace, they still only have three wins. Only the bottom three in the table have fewer than that. Palace is winless in its last three EPL fixtures, losing to Leeds and Aston Villa while playing to a 3-3 draw with Burnley. While this is a quick turnaround for United after a 3-2 win over Arsenal on Thursday, I still think Palace is at the bigger disadvantage due to being off the crushing loss. Man U should be highly motivated here, not just playing for a new manager, but they are also looking for their first home win over CP since 2017. 7* Manchester United |
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12-04-21 | Betis v. Barcelona FC -196 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -196 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
7* Barcelona (10:15 ET): What LOOKS to be a relatively even fixture on paper is one that I believe will go to the host Barcelona on Saturday. Oddsmakers concur with my assessment, installing Barca as nearly 2:1 favorites over a Real Betis side that sits four points ahead, but is also level when it comes to YTD goal differential. Barca has dominated this fixture in recent years (more on that in a bit) and I think has played better football (or soccer, if you prefer) than most realize this La Liga season. Let’s start with the fact that Barcelona has earned 17 out of a possible 24 points on home soil this campaign. That’s tied for second most in La Liga, trailing only Real Sociedad, but the Catalan giants are actually first in xPts, counting only home matches. Barca has also benefited from the “new manager bounce” as they are undefeated since Xavi took over, winning twice and playing to one draw. Both wins came on the domestic side as Barca defeated Espanyol 1-0 on Nov 20, then Villarreal 3-1 last weekend. Barca is actually unbeaten across its last six competitions (three wins and three draws) and has conceded one goal or fewer in its last seven. As alluded to above, Barca has had Real Betis’ number, capturing the previous five league games against Los Verdiblancos. That includes a 5-2 win here at Camp Nou last season. Betis comes in as winners of four straight, but only two of the wins came here in the Spanish top flight and they were both against bottom tier sides (Elche, Levante). The other wins came in the Europa League and Copa del Rey. Since November 21st, Betis has played twice the number of matches Barca has (4 to 2) and that very well could catch up with them here. The Copa del Rey victory, while easy (4-0), came midweek (on Wednesday). Meanwhile, Barca has been off the pitch for a full week, a sabbatical during which Betis has played twice. This just boils down to me thinking the Green & White (Betis) aren’t as good. This is a critical three points for the home side and I think they get them. 7* Barcelona |
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12-02-21 | Empoli v. Torino -126 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -126 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
10* Torino (12:30 ET): This is a battle of mid-table sides, so most will make the mistake of assuming neither Empoli nor Torino has much of an edge heading into Thursday’s fixture. For the record, Empoli (in 11th place) has 19 points to 13th place Torino’s 17. Both have seven losses this season, but Empoli has one more win, leading to the two-point edge. However, I feel that Torino is DEFINITELY the better side. In terms of expected points (xPts), which is the number of points a side is expected to have won based on expected goals data, Torino is far ahead. Empoli actually has the third lowest number of xPts in Serie A! So how has Empoli, a newly promoted side for this season, overperformed expectations so greatly? Tough to say. They are bottom six in both goals scored and goals allowed! It was definitely a fortunate win last week against Fiorentina as Empoli scored both of its goals in the final three minutes of normal time to steal a 2-1 victory. Had they not scored both goals, Empoli would be entering Thursday winless in its last three matches. They’d previously lost 2-1 to Hellas Verona and drawn 2-2 with Genoa. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of the last nine fixtures, a stretch which dates back to 9/22. With a better goal differential and higher number of xPts, you’d think Torino would be above Empoli in the table. But a string of bad luck (last seven losses have all come by one goal) has left them in the bottom half of the table … for now. I’m expecting a push into the upper half by season’s end. Playing this fixture at Olympic Grande Torino Stadium is a boon. Torino is 4-1-2 at home this season compared to just 1-1-5 on the road. Having barely avoided relegation last season, Torino should be desperate to move further away from the drop zone as we head into 2022. Again, my view is that they are simply the better side here. 10* Torino |
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11-30-21 | Crystal Palace +0.25 v. Leeds United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace (3:15 ET): So for this particular bet to cash, all we need is our side to play to a draw. I like our odds, especially since I am expecting Crystal Palace to defeat Leeds United on Tuesday. CP just saw their seven-match unbeaten run come to an end Saturday with a disappointing 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. But the Eagles still sit in 11th place with 16 points on the year and only the top four teams in the table have suffered fewer defeats this campaign than CP’s three. While they only have three wins, their league-leading seven draws are something that should give confidence provided the nature of this bet. After earning promotion back into the EPL at the end of the 2019-20 season, Leeds had a strong return to this level of football, finishing ninth in 2020-21. But this season has seen them seemingly fall prey to the old “second season jinx” as the Whites currently sit 17th in the table and dangerously close to the drop zone, only three points clear. They enter Tuesday in especially poor form, having won just one of their last six EPL fixtures. That win came at the expense of dreadful Norwich City last month. In fact, both of Leeds’ wins this season have come against newly promoted sides. While Leeds did earn a 0-0 draw with Brighton over the weekend, they were quite lucky to do so after being outshot 2:1 and seeing Brighton hit the woodwork twice in the first half. It was actually the first clean sheet of the season for Leeds and now they must face a CP side that has scored two or more goals in four of its last five away matches, a run that includes fixtures with the likes of Arsenal, Man City and West Ham. Other than the top four, no Premier League side is looking all that impressive this season. A win here would get Palace into sixth place on GD and I simply don’t see them doing any worse than a draw. 10* Crystal Palace |
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11-30-21 | Cagliari v. Verona -143 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
8* Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): Verona had a five-match unbeaten run come to an end over the weekend as they fell 3-1 to Sampdoria. That was certainly a surprise and not just because the opponent came in sitting close to the drop zone. Verona struck first with an Adrian Tameze goal in the 37th minute and controlled possession for nearly 60% of the match. It’s an outcome you would have expected to go their way and I think conceding three times was more “unlucky” than anything else. Tuesday’s fixture should offer Verona an excellent chance to bounce back though and get back into the win column. Cagliari is in the midst of a terrible season as they have only one win and currently sit 19th in the table, firmly in the relegation zone. Ironically, that lone win came at the expense of Sampdoria (the side that just beat Verona). That came after a seven-match winless run to start the campaign and sure enough Cagliari enters Tuesday on a six-match winless run. They’re coming off back to back draws, including a VERY disappointing 1-1 result with bottom of the table side Salernitana on Friday. That match saw Cagliari give up the equalizer in the final minute of normal time, costing them a critical two points. I think that disappointing draw is going to be tough for Cagliari to get over. As you’d expect, this side’s season-long form on the road has been poor. In fact, no Serie A side has been worse on their travels. Cagliari has no away wins, dropping four of six overall. They also have the lowest number of xPts away. Verona, who is unbeaten at home this year with five wins and two draws, has scored a league-high 18 goals on home soil. A win here would move them into sixth place, albeit just for the time being, ahead of Fiorentina and Juventus (who they beat not that long ago). Verona gets the three points here. 8* Hellas Verona |
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11-28-21 | Atletico Madrid -192 v. Cadiz CF | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
6* Atletico Madrid (12:30 ET): This should be a really easy three points for the reigning La Liga Champions. Currently fourth in the table this season, Atletico returns to domestic action on the heels of a very disappointing loss in the Champions League (1-0 to AC Milan) midweek. They are on a six-match unbeaten streak here in La Liga and while three of those have been draws, defeating struggling Cadiz should not be difficult on Sunday. There is a massive gap in talent between these two sides. Cadiz was promoted to the Spanish top flight last season and finished a surprising 12th in the table. However, they were actually second lowest on xPts, so they were quite fortunate not to finish closer to the drop zone. Coming into 2021/22, I felt regression was inevitable for Los Piratas and that it would be a real fight to avoid relegation. Sure enough, they currently sit in 17th place and are just one point clear of safety. Cadiz has the second worst GD (-11) in all of La Liga. After two fortunate draws (with Villarreal and Mallorca) and a shocking 1-0 win over Athletic Club, Cadiz was put to the sword last week in a horrible 4-0 loss to Getafe, a fellow bottom of the table side. That’s an ominous result before this step up in class against a side that scored four times on them in both of last season’s fixtures. Atleti is simply too much for this overmatched Cadiz side and should maintain its status in the top four with a win here. 6* Atletico Madrid |
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11-26-21 | Granada v. Ath Bilbao -185 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -185 | 48 h 30 m | Show |
7* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): It’s been a bit of a frustrating stretch for Athletic Club (Bilbao) as they are winless in the last four La Liga matches, three of those being draws. But they are still eighth in the table mind you, with 19 points, leaving them seven behind the top four. Interestingly enough, the Lions are pretty close to those top teams in terms of xPts and no team has been unluckier in terms of actual vs. expected goals scored. Having conceded the fewest number of times in all of La Liga (only 8 goals allowed), Athletic probably SHOULD be higher in the table. I think Friday’s fixture offers them an excellent opportunity to grab the full three points and move up. Athletic has lost only once in its last seven times out on the pitch and just twice all season. Only the top four sides in the table, all of whom have lost just once, have suffered fewer defeats this season in La Liga. The issue for Athletic is that they are tied for the most draws in the league with 7. I had the Under in their most recent fixture, a goalless draw with Levante. There’s been just one time all season - a loss to Rayo Vallecano back on Sept 21 - that Athletic has conceded more than one goal. And that 2-1 loss saw them give up the game-winner in stoppage time. Again, the metrics say Athletic SHOULD be scoring more. I think they break through here against Granada, a side near the bottom of the table that actually ranks dead last in xPts. Being that Granada has one of the worst defensive records in La Liga (20 goals allowed), things really line up for Athletic to score multiple goals on Friday. If that happens, it’s an easy win, given their reputation for conceding so few goals. Granada is coming off a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid and a 2-0 loss to Espanyol before that and I think this is a team that will struggle to avoid relegation. 7* Athletic Bilbao |
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11-24-21 | AC Milan v. Atletico Madrid -150 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
8* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Liverpool has run away with Group B and thus will be moving onto the Round of 16. But there’s one more spot left in the knockout stage for the other three sides in the group. Reigning La Liga Champs Atletico Madrid can take a big step towards claiming it for themselves on Wednesday if they can once again defeat Serie A’s Inter Milan. Back in September, Atletico took the reverse at San Siro, 2-1, thanks to a stoppage time penalty from Luis Suarez. Here on home soil, I believe they are more than capable of winning again and probably in far less dramatic fashion. As things stand now, Atletico is one point back of Porto for second place in Group B. But Atletico has the slightly better goal differential and - like I said earlier - can put themselves in an excellent position to advance past the group stage with a win here. Porto will be facing Liverpool in Anfield on this same matchday, so it’s very likely they won’t pick up any points and also see their GD worsen. If Porto loses and Atletico wins on Wednesday, then the La Liga champs would only need to play to a draw with Porto on the final group matchday. In addition to that motivation, I like the fact Atletico is coming off a win on the domestic front over the weekend (1-0 over Osasuna), a match where they firmly controlled possession. At the same time, AC Milan happens to be coming off its first Serie A loss of the season as they went down 4-3 at the hands of Fiorentina this past weekend. The Rossoneri are still tied with Napoli (who also just suffered its first Serie A loss over the weekend) atop the table. But here in the Champions League, things have not gone as well. Milan has just taken just one point from its first four matches, that coming from a 1-1 draw with Porto earlier this month. They’ve still got one more fixture with Liverpool to come, so Milan’s chances of making it to the Round of 16 are looking very slim at this point. It’s been eight years since they last picked up an away Champions League win. 8* Atletico Madrid |
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11-23-21 | Juventus v. Chelsea -158 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): The two Group H heavyweights collide for a second time, but now it’s at Stamford Bridge where reigning Champions League trophy holders Chelsea should have a clear edge. In the reverse fixture, which took place in Turin back in September, it was Juventus emerging 1-0 victors. I know that Juve has yet to drop a UCL fixture as they are 4-0 with a GD of +7. But they are already assured of a spot in the Round of 16. Chelsea can join them there with a win on Tuesday. I think the Blues get the full three points as they look to continue a tremendous run of form this year. Coming off a 3-0 win over Leicester City on Saturday, Chelsea continues to sit atop the Premier League table, holding a three-point edge over Man City (last season’s champs) and four-point edge over Liverpool (2019/20 champs). Having kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches, the Blues have also yet to concede more than once in any match this season. It has been a phenomenal defensive record under boss Thomas Tuchel and the lone goal conceded so far in Champions League play came in the 1-0 loss to Juve. Playing at home, with revenge and looking to book a spot in the final 16, there’s just a lot to like about Chelsea here. In addition to their aforementioned phenomenal defensive record, note that their 30 EPL goals have come from 15 different players. So there are plenty of attacking options. Juventus has infamously had a rather middling campaign in Serie A (where they are currently eighth due to goal differential). Their Champions League success is impressive, but few would argue that Chelsea isn’t the better overall side here. 10* Chelsea |
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11-21-21 | Valencia v. Real Sociedad -140 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
10* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): I’m a little surprised, dare I say SHOCKED, to see this line so low on Real Sociedad. The current leaders in La Liga have been in excellent form throughout the 2021/22 campaign, not only domestically, but also in the Europa League. The White and Blues can’t rest on their laurels too much, however. They are only one point clear of Real Madrid and Sevilla, both of whom have a match in hand. But I don’t think it will be too much trouble getting the full three points this week as they host mid-table side Valencia. Valencia has been one of La Liga’s highest scoring sides this season, totaling 21 goals in their 12 matches. Only Real Madrid (28) has scored more. But Los Che also have the second worst defensive record in the Spanish top flight, having shipped 20 goals. Only winless Levante has conceded more. Therefore, it probably wasn’t all that shocking to see Valencia involved in a six-goal thriller with Atletico Madrid right before the international break. However, sharing the points in that particular fixture is something that Los Che was quite fortunate to pull off. They were down 3-1 entering stoppage time and the first goal scored was an “own goal” from Atletico. Valencia figures to have Sociedad’s full attention here considering the table leaders have won just one of the last eight La Liga fixtures between the two sides. But, as detailed above, this has the feel of a pretty “special” season for Sociedad, who has yet to be beaten on home soil. Valencia has won just once in six away matches, losing three. Their last away fixture (back on Oct 27) resulted in a 4-1 loss to Real Betis. I’m backing Real Sociedad to win on Sunday. 10* Real Sociedad |
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11-21-21 | Venezia v. Bologna -157 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -157 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
8* Bologna (9:00 ET): Currently eighth in the table and level with Juventus at 18 points, Bologna is off to its best start in Serie A since 2002. Their 19 goals scored is their most through 12 matches since ‘97! Another positive is that right before the international break, they snapped a streak of nine straight away matches without a win, beating Sampdoria 2-1. Now Bologna is set to return to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara where their form has been quite good this season. They sit fourth in the home form rankings this season, taking 13 out of a possible 18 points. I had them when they downed Cagliari here two weeks ago, 2-0. The Rossoblu have to like their chances this week as they host Venezia, a newly promoted side for the 2021/22 season. Venezia sits 15th in the table entering matchweek 13, only three points clear of the drop zone. Clearly, simply remaining in the Italian top flight for next season is the lone goal for the Arancioneroverdi. A shocking come from behind victory over Roma before the break was a big step in that direction, but it remains to be seen if Venezia is capable of beating a team in the top half of the table away from home. They have just one away win this season. Venezia already has six losses in total this season, four of those coming away from home. Prior to the shocking comeback win over Roma - which included a penalty in the 65th minute - they’d picked up just one total point from their three previous fixtures. Having struggled so mightily on their travels this season, it’s highly unlikely that Venezia will be even able to share the points here, especially given Bologna’s excellent home form. Venezia has scored just 11 goals all season, second fewest in Serie A, only four of them coming away. 8* Bologna |
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11-20-21 | RB Leipzig -120 v. Hoffenheim | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
10* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): I think that, at this point, we can all agree that RB Leipzig is one of the three best sides in the Bundesliga this season. Nine-time champion Bayern Munich remains the class of the German top flight, but behind them it figures to be a battle between Dortmund and Leipzig for second. Now Leipzig is currently only in fifth place and four points adrift of third. But off the impressive 2-1 win over Dortmund that occurred just prior to the International Break, Leipzig has both the second best GD (+12) and xPts (20.3) in the entire Bundesliga. So I expect them to continue their march into the top four this week as they travel to Hoffenheim. The line is low for two reasons. One is that Hoffenheim is no slouch. They’ve won four straight at home across all competitions. The other is that Leipzig has yet to win a single time on their travels this season (three draws, two losses). But there’s a “first time for everything” and in this case, I think it’s pretty clear that Leipzig is poised to win a Bundesliga away match for the first time this season. With a disappointing run in the Champions League set to end, Leipzig can not turn its full focus towards the domestic front. Hoffenheim currently sits 10th in the Bundesliga standings and is pretty firmly a “mid-table side.” Although they are one of only seven sides currently sporting a positive GD (+2) this Bundesliga season, I don’t see Die Kraichgauer making it up to a spot where they’d be in position to play European football next season. Their five losses are actually tied for third most in the entire Bundesliga. Right before the Int’l Break, they lost to VfL Bochum, a newly promoted side that wasn’t too far off from the relegation zone before picking up the three points. 10* RB Leipzig |
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11-19-21 | Ath Bilbao v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
8* Under Athletic Club/Levante (3:00 ET): No side in La Liga has shipped more goals than Levante’s 25. It’s really not even close as Valencia has conceded the second most with 20. Hence, Levante is the only remaining winless team in the table (0-6-7) and currently sits at the foot of table, level with Getafe at six points and a -13 YTD goal differential. Each of the L5 Levante matches have seen three or more total goals scored, but a matchup here with Athletic Club should change that as the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga. Take the Under. Athletic Club currently sits eighth in the table with 18 points and a win Friday would move them into a fifth place tie with Real Betis. Prior to the International Break, Athletic suffered a surprising 1-0 home loss to Cadiz, which snapped a five-match unbeaten run in La Liga. While the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga (8), they have also scored the third fewest (11). The 19 total goals scored in Athletic’s 12 matches are easily the fewest for any La Liga side this season. Levante has actually scored more times than Athletic Club this season, but only one goal more. So we’re looking at two of the bottom five scoring sides in the entire Spanish top flight here. While I think Athletic has been somewhat unlucky to score only 11 goals, at the same time Levante has been a bit unlucky to concede as many as they have. Five of Athletic’s last six fixtures have seen two or fewer total goals scored. 8* Under Athletic Club/Levante |
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11-07-21 | Getafe CF v. Villarreal -187 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 40 h 44 m | Show |
8* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET): The Yellow Submarine treated us to a 2-0 win (over Young Boys) midweek in the Champions League, elevating them into a first place tie in Group F in that particular competition. But here on the domestic front, Villarreal has surprisingly struggled. They are just 13th in the La Liga table (12 points), although three teams ahead of them currently have negative goal differentials. I think we’ll start to see a move up the table in the coming weeks and will back them again here to get the full three points Sunday. Villarreal’s opponent this week is Getafe, who sits at the foot of the table (last) with only six points. It’s looking more and more like relegation could be a reality for this troubled side at the end of the season. Getafe is also last in expected points (xPts) so their current place is deserved. It also feels like a really good time to fade the Deep Blue Ones as they happen to be coming off their first league victory, a 2-1 shock over Espanyol last week. Despite winning, Getafe lost the possession battle in that match. Villarreal has won the last four fixtures between these two sides, a run that dates back to January 2019. The Yellow Submarine have six draws this season, tied for most in La Liga, which is why they are so low in the table. They need to start picking up some wins. Hosting the bottom team in the table is a good place to start. I just cannot see a team that’s finished in the top seven each of the last two La Liga seasons continuing to remain in the bottom half. Getafe is last in the league in goals scored (6). 8* Villarreal |
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11-07-21 | Roma -179 v. Venezia | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -179 | 38 h 14 m | Show |
8* AS Roma (6:30 AM ET): For matchweek #12 in the Serie A season, I’m going back to our old friends in Roma, who have been quite kind to me this campaign. In my 14-3 start in Serie A, I’m a perfect 5-0 with Roma. The Giallorossi obviously wish I would take them more considering they only sit fourth in the table with 19 points. In the six matches where I have not taken Roma, they’ve lost four and drawn once (did win once). Well, good news Roma fans. I’m on your team this week, so that should mean another three points. This is actually a pretty critical fixture for Jose Mourinho’s side on Sunday. By the time the match takes place, there’s a chance they could find themselves as low as sixth in the table. That’s dependent on how Atalanta and Fiorentina perform on Saturday. Regardless, a win here would at least guarantee the Giallorossi to remain tied for fourth. Roma has won just once in its last six across all competitions (I haven’t been taking them very often recently) and are off a frustrating 2-2 draw with Bodo/Glimt in Europa League Conference play. I really can’t stress enough how this is a must win for them. Fortunately, they are faced with Venezia, a newly promoted side for 2021/22 that is having predictable struggles staying clear of the relegation zone. With only nine points, Venezia is 16th and just one point clear of the bottom three. They have taken the fewest number of shots on goal in Serie A this season, a dubious distinction, especially when faced with an opponent that has taken the MOST shots in the league. I thought the Venetians were quite fortunate to play to a 0-0 draw with Genoa last weekend as they were dominated in terms of possession. They are last in Serie A in goals scored (8) and have not defeated Roma since 1999 (due to a prolonged absence from the Italian top flight). 8* AS Roma |
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11-06-21 | Borussia Dortmund v. RB Leipzig -103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
10* RB Leipzig (1:30 ET): This is a crucial three points for Leipzig, who sit eighth in the Bundesliga table despite a YTD goal differential (+11) that’s right on par with the #2 and #3 teams. Only Bayern Munich, who is again the standard bearer this season in the German top flight, is comfortably in front of Leipzig’s GD. Obviously a favorite to finish in the top four coming into the season, Leipzig should be ready to make a move shortly as this season’s Champions League dreams have been dashed. In order to get back to playing European football next year, they know they’ve got to finish in the top four on the domestic front. Dortmund is second in the Bundesliga, just one point behind Bayern Munich. That’s impressive, but BVB is way behind the table leaders in GD (+28 vs +12). They too are coming off a crushing result in the Champions League midweek as they fell 3-1 to Ajax Amsterdam, a match they led for 35 minutes despite playing with only 10 men (Mats Hummels was given a red card at the 29 minute mark). The dam broke after Ajax got the equalizer in the 72nd minute as BVB would go on to concede two more times after that. Dortmund did go 4-0 in October in Bundesliga action, but three of those wins were against bottom of the table sides. This match is clearly more important to Leipzig’s future than it is to Dortmund’s. Depending what happens elsewhere over the weekend, Leipzig could be in the top four. Dortmund is assured of staying in the top three no matter what transpires. Erling Haaland remains out (likely until December), which is a crushing blow to BVB. Leipzig’s home form has also been very good with four wins in five fixtures. The lone loss came to Bayern and there’s no shame in that. 10* RB Leipzig |
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11-06-21 | Manchester City -135 v. Manchester United | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
10* Manchester City (8:30 AM ET): It’s Derby Week in Manchester with United hosting City in a critical clash of top five teams in the Premier League table. Man City has flashed far better form this season, having taken a total of 20 points from their previous 10 matches. That has them third in the table, five adrift of first place Chelsea and only two short of second place Liverpool. Meanwhile, despite currently being in fifth place, United has had its share of struggles this campaign. They’ve taken 17 points, only three fewer than City, but have vastly inferior YTD goal differential (+4 vs. +14). Both sides were on the pitch midweek in Champions League action. While City breezed by Brugge 4-1 to take over first place in Group A, United was quite fortunate to share the points with Serie A’s Atalanta in 2-2 draw. Cristiano Ronaldo really bailed his club out, scoring both goals, including a stoppage time equalizer. United had fallen behind 2-0 at the 56 minute mark and appeared to be in real danger. One would have to go all the way back to April to find the last time the Red Devils kept a clean sheet at home and they’ve conceded nine more times than have the Citizens this EPL campaign. That’s a real problem considering United has scored only one goal in its last three fixtures here at Old Trafford. I know that City has had its fair share of troubles winning in this particular Derby. But I don’t think that there’s any debate as to which side comes into Saturday in better form. Prior to last weekend’s 2-0 loss, the Citizens had been unbeaten in eight straight Premier League fixtures. They have the highest expected point total (xPts) in the entire EPL while United is only ninth in that regard. City may be winless in the previous four Manchester derbies and scoreless in the last three, but that streak is almost certain to come to an end on Saturday. 10* Manchester City |
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11-02-21 | Young Boys Bern v. Villarreal -190 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
8* Villarreal (4:00 ET): With a disappointing run of form on the domestic side, La Liga’s Villarreal again turns to the European front in hopes of success. With four points through the first three matches, the Yellow Submarine sit second in Group F of the Champions League. They are two points back of Manchester United, but actually own the group’s best goal differential at +2. Much of that is owed to the result of the reverse fixture with Tuesday’s opponent, whom they defeated 4-1 in Switzerland back on October 20th. Things got off to a great start for Young Boys in the Champions League as they shocked Man U 1-0 in the opener. But things have since taken a turn for the worse with the perennial Swiss power. They were beaten 1-0 by Atlalanta, then as mentioned before, lost the reverse 4-1 to their La Liga counterparts. Villarreal struck twice early on in that fixture, taking a 2-0 lead just 16 minutes in. After conceding in the 77th minute, the Yellow Submarine then put two more on the sheet for a decisive group stage win. Young Boys were already at a disadvantage coming into the UCL as they had more qualifying to do than did Villarreal. This despite bagging a 15th Swiss Super League title last season while Villarreal finished seventh in La Liga. Such is life for a side not in one of the top European Leagues. The fact that Villarreal is winless since beating Young Boys last month doesn’t bother me so much as this is a drop in class against a team that’s actually only running third this season in the Swiss League (and off a loss to boot). I’d argue Villarreal has played much better than their current 13th place standing in La Liga would seem to indicate. This is a crucial three points with both Atalanta and Man U looming. Give me the Spanish side that already won in Switzerland and is now playing on home soil. The 3-5-2 formation that Villarreal used gave Young Boys fits in the previous meeting and figures to do so again here in Spain. 8* Villarreal |
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11-01-21 | Cagliari v. Bologna -140 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
9* Bologna (3:45 ET): Though they were beaten badly on Thursday, Bologna should quickly recover with what looks to be a favorable fixture on Monday. There’s no shame in losing to Serie A leaders Napoli, which is what the Rossoblu did Thursday, even if it was by a score of 3-0. But with their winless streak having reached three, Bologna really needs to get going. They were also beaten by Milan 4-2 two weeks ago, but again that was a top of the table side. Now they are hosting the team at the foot of the table. It’s been a rough start for Cagliari and things got worse on Wednesday when they conceded two late goals to lose to Roma 2-1. As someone who had Roma in that particular fixture, I was quite happy to see that result. But it leaves Cagliari with just six points after 10 matches. A win would get them out of the drop zone, however, this is a side that’s won just one time all season. Genoa is the other other Serie A side that can claim that same dubious distinction at this point. Not only has Cagliari conceded at least one goal in every match this season, but they have been outscored by eight goals in four away matches, taking just a single point. Prior to losing to Serie A’s top two sides, Bologna had drawn with Udinese (1-1) and picked up a very impressive 3-0 win over Lazio. Over their five home fixtures this season, Bologna has picked up three wins and a total of 10 points (out of a possible 15). If you take away results against the top three Serie A sides, then all of a sudden Bologna has a +3 YTD GD with three clean sheets. They are the better side here and I look for them to take the full three points. 9* Bologna |
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10-31-21 | Empoli v. Sassuolo Calcio -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10* Sassuolo (10:00 AM ET): Perennial mid-table side Sassuolo finds itself in a familiar place heading into matchweek #11. The Neroverdi sit in 9th place in Serie A, several points adrift from the league leaders. But coming off Tuesday’s dramatic 2-1 win over Juventus, Sassuolo has a real shot at moving closer to the European places this week as they face newly promoted Empoli, a side that should feel VERY fortunate to be only two points back of their hosts on Sunday. Simply remaining in the Italian top flight for next season is the obvious goal for Empoli, last year’s Serie B champs. All things considered, it’s been a pretty impressive start to the 2021/22 campaign as the team has collected nine points from their four road fixtures. That’s one of the best marks in the entire league. But at the same time, they’ve dropped three of four overall and have picked up points in only four of 10 matches this season. I’m a little nervous in the sense that Empoli has yet to play to a draw this season. Their last three losses all came against top five sides (Roma, Atalanta, Inter). But they actually have the LOWEST expected point total (xPts) in all of Serie A. That’s why I said they should feel quite lucky to be as high in the table as they are. They’ve got a -6 YTD GD as well. After this, Sassuolo has two more favorable fixtures coming up on both sides of the next International Break (Nov 13). They’ve got to take advantage and I expect them to get the full three points here. 10* Sassuolo |
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10-28-21 | Atletico Madrid -141 v. Levante | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -141 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
10* Atletico Madrid (3:30 ET): Depending on what happens with Real Madrid on Wednesday, there may be a chance for reigning La Liga Champs Atletico to move to a familiar place here, that being the top of the table. As of press time, Atletico is three points back of current table leaders Sevilla. Real Madrid would move in front if they beat Osasuna, however anything less than that would leave the door open for Atletico to move level with Sevilla & Real Sociedad at 21 points. Regardless, it’s a critical three points here for last season’s champs as they try to keep pace with the other top sides in La Liga. It’s also a pretty favorable fixture as Atletico takes on one of La Liga’s two winless sides, that being Levante. Now having played to a draw in half their matches, Levante is certainly better than the other side without a win (Getafe). Based on expected points (xPts), they probably even deserve to be closer to the middle of the table. But the reality of the matter is that Levante has the second worst goal differential in all of La Liga (-9) and just wasted a three goal effort last week vs. Sevilla by conceding five times. They have the worst defensive record in the Spanish top flight (18 goals allowed) and prior to LW they had been kept clean four straight times. Atletico was able to rescue a point last week by coming from behind to pull even with Real Sociedad 2-2. It is a bit shocking that Atletico has not kept a clean sheet in any of its last five away matches. But they did beat Barcelona 2-0 earlier this month, prior to the International Break. Levante has given Atletico some surprising troubles in recent seasons, winning 2-0 against them back in February and losing only two of the last 10 meetings here on home soil. However, there really is no debating who the superior side is in this one. 10* Atletico Madrid |
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10-27-21 | Roma -148 v. Cagliari | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 41 h 13 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): As you already saw, it’s been a very successful Serie A season for me thus far (11-2 overall). The side that I have had - by far - the most success with is Roma. My record when taking them is a perfect 4-0. It’s somewhat interesting that Jose Mourinho’s team has won only one other time when I have NOT taken them this season. But they currently sit a very respectable 4th in the table with 16 points and just pulled off something that no other Serie A side had previously been able to do this season and that’s take points from table leading Napoli, whom they played to a goalless draw over the weekend. Cagliari sits at the opposite end of the table, in the relegation zone with just six points. They’ve won just one time in 2021/22 and that came right after the International Break, 3-1 over Sampdoria. Last week brought an ugly 3-0 loss to Fiorentina, which was the third time in the last five matches where Cagliari was kept goalless. I feel a little bad for them as they deserve better than their current standing, but this is simply not the fixture where they are likely to turn things around, especially with so many injuries in the starting XI. Roma will have no sympathy for Cagliari as they have not won since the International Break. There was a disastrous showing in the Europa Conference League after a 1-0 loss to Juventus. Then came the 0-0 draw against Napoli, the only team that is higher in expected points this Serie A season. With Cagliari conceding more than two goals per match and giving up 21 shots on goal to Fiorentina, look for Roma to break out on the scoresheet on Wednesday. 10* AS Roma |
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10-27-21 | Sevilla -117 v. Mallorca | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -117 | 40 h 36 m | Show |
8* Sevilla (1:00 ET): I’ve said it previously, but Sevilla just might be La Liga’s best side in 2021/22. They currently trail table leaders Real Sociedad by one point and have a game in hand. A win Wednesday would move them on top (although Real Madrid can stay level if they defeat Osasuna). In terms of expected points (xPts), Sevilla is #1 right now. Fresh off a 5-3 thrashing of Levante, Sevilla has lost only once this season (a real shocker to Granada), but is otherwise unbeaten across their last 16 competitions. Look for it to be an easy three points on Wednesday as they face Mallorca. After a one year absence from the Spanish top flight, Mallorca earned promotion by winning the Segunda Division last season. Like the two other newly promoted sides this season, they’ve made a decent accounting for themselves as they currently sit 12th in the table with 12 points. But they have a -6 YTD goal differential. It was a wild 2-2 draw with Valencia last week as Mallorca blew 2-0 lead where they were the beneficiaries of an own goal. Mallorca had to play with only 10 men for most of the second half as Kang-In Lee was sent off with a red card in the 55th minute. But they still had that 2-0 lead heading into stoppage time, which is when disaster struck as they then conceded twice and had to share the points. It will be very difficult to get over what they feel should have been three points. But Mallorca was also dominated in terms of possession in that match (73% to 27%). I think they are pretty outclassed here against a side they’ve beaten just once in the last seven meetings and that was back in 2013. 8* Sevilla |
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10-27-21 | Barcelona FC -119 v. Rayo Vallecano | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
8* Barcelona (1:00 ET): I am here to tell you that it is FAR too early in the campaign to write off Barcelona. They may currently sit just ninth in the table while coming off a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in El Clasico. However, they are 4th in xPts after ranking 1st in that department among all La Liga sides last season. They have the same YTD goal differential (+5) as their opponents this week, Rayo Vallecano, and I am anticipating a move up the table. Expect Barca to gain all three points from this midweek fixture. As I mentioned in the other La Liga writeup, all three newly promoted sides are enjoying a decent amount of success. None more so than Rayo Vallecano, who sit in seventh place in the table (16 points) and are also the second highest scoring side. But that latter figure is at least a little misleading as Vallecano has played one more match than most of their brethren. They’ve lost two of three, including a disheartening 3-2 loss to Real Betis over the weekend where the game winner was scored in the 75th minute on a penalty. That will be a tough loss to get over. Now I realize that the same can be said for Barca losing El Clasico, a battle that was 1-0 heading into stoppage time. Barca actually had a slight edge in possession in that heavily hyped fixture and the slightest edge in expected goals. Vallecano has been a very favorable matchup in the past with Barca winning each of the last 14 meetings and scoring at least two goals every time. Look for them to earn their 1st away win of the season. 8* Barcelona |
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10-27-21 | Atalanta -128 v. Sampdoria | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 39 h 6 m | Show |
8* Atalanta (12:30 ET): Sampdoria may have been an easy winner for us on Friday, but that’s because they were facing Spezia, a side that will likely be fighting off relegation all season long. Now it’s a big step up in class as the Blucerchiati face one of Serie A’s “big boys,” Atalanta, who will not be lacking in motivation heading into this fixture. La Dea, who is still fifth in the table, took just one point from two competitions last week as they lost their Champions League fixture to Manchester United and then had to settle for a very disappointing 1-1 draw with Udinese back on the domestic front. Prior to its win over Spezia on Friday, Sampdoria sat dangerously close to the relegation zone in 17th place. That was a critical fixture as it took place on home soil where the Blucerchiati had yet to win this season. Two first half goals were key and there was little doubt what the final result would be for most of the second half. But while the only goal conceded came in stoppage time, take note of a couple things. Spezia committed the deadly sin of an “own goal” and actually dominated possession of the ball (71% to 29%). With Sampdoria conceding at a rate of almost two times per match, this sets up as a tough fixture for them. Atalanta may not be scoring at the same rate as previous campaigns, but they still must be respected. It looked as if they had Manchester United beat last week when they led 2-0 at the half. Conceding three times in the second half to lose the match was an absolute stunner. Then they led Udinese most of the second half on Sunday before giving up a stoppage time goal to settle for the draw. Clearly, they feel they should have won both matches. I look for them to take their frustrations out on one of Serie A’s lesser sides and possibly move up into the top four by the end of matchday 10. 8* Atalanta |
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10-24-21 | Real Sociedad v. Atletico Madrid -144 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -144 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
10* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): On the same matchday as “El Clasico” (Real Madrid vs. Barcelona) comes my top La Liga bet for the month. It too involves a pair of sides near the top of the table. Real Sociedad is in fact your surprise table leaders right now with 20 points. However, it should be pointed out that Sociedad has played one more match than most of the teams currently chasing. That included LY’s La Liga champs, Atletico Madrid, who can pull level with a win here. I don’t think anyone really believes that Sociedad is the top team in the Spanish top flight. It is their time to drop a match. Now, you’re probably thinking to yourself “what about Thursday?” About Thursday, I went with Sociedad in the Europa League fixture against Sturm Graz. They won 1-0, extending their unbeaten run across all competitions to 11 straight. But Sturm Graz is obviously not the same caliber of opponent that Atletico is. Furthermore, Sociedad is not winning by very large margins. They’ve failed to score more than once each of their five competitions. They will have to rely on their defense Sunday, but I don’t think Sociedad will score here. Atletico’s return to European football midweek was not as successful as Sociedad’s. Last year’s La Liga champs lost their Champions League fixture to Liverpool 3-2. It was a frustrating defeat as Atletico had battled back from an early 0-2 hold to draw even. But then Antonie Griezmann was sent off with a red card and Liverpool took the full three points with a penalty in the 78th minute. But Atletico remains unbeaten at home in domestic action this season. They actually haven’t played a La Liga match since beating Barca 2-0 on October 2nd. So they are better rested. They should be hungrier and move to the top of the table (on goal differential) after this one. 10* Atletico Madrid |
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10-23-21 | Watford v. Everton -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
10* Everton (10:00 AM ET): After dropping a disappointing 1-0 decision to West Ham last week, this is pretty close to a “must win” for top five hopeful Everton. A late header (74th minute) proved to be the difference last week in what was only Everton’s second loss of the campaign. But they’ve won just one of their last four. That leaves them level with both West Ham and Manchester United at 14 points, good for a sixth place tie, but Everton trails those two sides on goal differential. I think they’re in line for a big win Saturday. I say that because they are facing Watford, who is really struggling right now. They went down 5-0 at the hands of Liverpool last week, their fourth straight across all competitions without a win. Watford is four points clear of the drop zone right now, but if I were them I wouldn’t be too confident in their ability to stay clear. One of Watford’s wins this year came at the expense of Norwich City, who seems destined for relegation. Since that win, the Hornets have lost to a second tier side in the Carabao Cup, drew with Newcastle United (another bad team), lost to Leeds (another bad team) and then came last week’s bludgeoning at the hands of Liverpool. That was their first fixture under a new manager and second straight without a goal. I know Everton has had some injury concerns, but they’d won three straight at home before the loss to West Ham and the Toffees have NEVER lost at Goodison Park to Watford in Premier League action. 10* Everton |
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10-23-21 | Mallorca v. Valencia -142 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -142 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
9* Valencia (8:00 AM ET): So, as I talked about on Friday, La Liga seems a lot more wide open this season. One of the teams in the mix is Valencia, who currently sits 10th in the table amongst some of the “big boys” This despite the fact that the Bats have not won any of their last five fixtures. Overall, they’ve won three, drawn three and lost three. That leaves them with a very respectable 12 points though and I think they add to it with the full three on Saturday as they host struggling Mallorca. Mallorca is a newly promoted side that - like Valencia - got off to a good start to the La Liga season before falling off a bit. They’ve won just once in the last six tries, losing four. It was a 1-0 loss to current table leaders Real Sociedad last week. While there’s no real shame there, it was the third time they’ve been kept “clean” this season. It also bears mentioning that Sociedad played the entire second half with only 10 men. In only one match has Mallorca scored more than one goal. At the same time, they have the joint worst defensive record in the league, having conceded 13 times already. Valencia has been one of the highest scoring sides to this point with 13 goals. I know they’ve gone cold recently, picking up just two points from those L5 fixtures. However, look at some of the clubs they have faced. They’ve faced Barcelona, Athletic Club, Sevilla and Real Madrid. They should have picked up three points when they faced Cadiz, but that ended up being a goalless draw. They can’t afford to let this one pass them by. 9* Valencia |
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10-22-21 | Granada v. Osasuna -122 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
8* Osasuna (3:00 ET): La Liga has been far more wide open this season than in year’s past. Barcelona & the “two Madrids” (Atletico & Real) have finished among the top four each of the last eight seasons. Sevilla has joined that trio in the top four each of the last two campaigns. But it feels like a deeper pool of contenders here in 2021-22 with as many as 11 sides feeling like they could contend for a Champions League spot. One of the surprises is Osasuna, who is currently tied for second in the table (fifth by goal goal differential) with 17 points. They’ve won three straight La Liga fixtures. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have struggling Granada. They had not won any of their opening seven matches this season - losing four and drawing three - before shocking Sevilla 1-0 right before the International Break. That was a shock victory, but I don’t expect it to have a carryover effect. The club was supposed to play Atletico Madrid last week, but that had to be postponed due to the proximity to the South American World Cup qualifiers. So when Granada hits “the pitch” on Friday, it will have been 19 days since they last played a competitive match. When it comes to expected points (xPts), Granada is dead last in all of La Liga. Even more damning is the fact they have the fewest xPts of any side in any of the four “big” European leagues. I think it’s going to be a real struggle for them to avoid relegation. Osasuna is a side that should clearly finish in the top half of the table. They should get the full three points here. Last week they defeated Villarreal, a top four side from LY, 2-1. 8* Osasuna |
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10-22-21 | Spezia Calcio v. Sampdoria -137 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10* Sampdoria (2:45 ET): Two sides that are precariously close to the drop zone will face off on Friday as Sampdoria hosts Spezia. For the home side, the last four fixtures have gone much differently than the first four. I Blucerchiati began the 2021-22 campaign with a four-match unbeaten run. But the last four have seen them fail to win, picking up just a point from a 3-3 draw with Udinese. That leaves them 17th in the table, but level on points with 19th place Cagliari, who just beat them 3-1 last week. But the upcoming schedule does seem favorable with four of the next six fixtures going down here at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. One point above Sampdoria in 16th place is Spezia, who are coming off a 2-1 win over last place Salernitana. It was Spezia’s second win of the campaign. The first came against Venezia, another newly promoted side, several weeks ago. Despite having one more point and one more win than Sampdoria, I feel that Spezia is a more likely candidate to finish in the drop zone. I say that based on their -10 goal differential, which is currently the second worst in all of Serie A (ahead of only Salernitana). Having yet to win this season on home soil, you’ve got to figure Sampdoria is going to come out fired up Friday. They’ve also yet to keep a clean sheet here. But the key here may be the fact that Spezia has the worst defensive record (20 goals conceded) in all of Serie A. I’ve got to think Sampdoria gets the full three points here and moves away from the drop zone. 10* Sampdoria |
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10-21-21 | Real Sociedad -167 v. Sturm Graz | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
10* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): Current La Liga leaders Real Sociedad make their return to European football this week, looking to make a move in Group B of the Europa League. Sociedad have drawn their first two Europa League fixtures, 1-1 with Monaco and 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven. However, don’t let that cloud the fact that they remain unbeaten in their last 10 across all competitions. I see them moving up the Group B standings here as they should get the full three points from Austrian side Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz was a winner over the weekend in the Austrian Bundesliga as they continue to run a distant second behind Red Bull Salzburg on the domestic front. But this competition has proven a lot less kind with losses to Monaco and Eindhoven. They were somewhat competitive with Monaco (lost 1-0) but then were put to the sword by Eindhoven in an ugly 5-1 defeat. While they know that a third straight loss would pretty much be a “death knell” in this competition, I just don't think Sturm Graz is capable of competing against the leaders of one of Europe’s “big four” leagues. Sociedad have not lost since falling to Barcelona 4-2 on the opening matchday of the La Liga season. That was back in August. Saturday’s 1-0 win over Mallorca marked their sixth “clean sheet” of the season. Given they are facing an opponent that has scored just one goal in two Europa League fixtures thus far, another clean sheet is certainly within the realm of possibility here. There should really be no argument as to who is the superior side in this one. 10* Real Sociedad |
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10-21-21 | Antwerp v. Fenerbahce -137 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -137 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
8* Fenerbahce Istanbul (12:45 ET): The two Group D sides that are without a win meet Thursday in a critical clash. The hosts (Fenerbahce) were at least able to secure a point in their opening Europa League fixture, a 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. That means a win here could vault them into a second place tie with the Bundesliga side depending on what else happens on this particular matchday. I’m betting on Fenerbahce to at least handle its business in what should be a three-point fixture here. Royal Antwerp is now left to hope for a repeat of last season’s Europa League when they lost the opening two fixtures only to qualify from the group stage. So far it’s been a 2-1 to Olympiacos and a 1-0 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt. In both instances, Antwerp conceded the game-winner late; the 87th minute and then in stoppage time. That’s a pretty brutal start to the proceedings, but in my view the worst is yet to come as this looks to be the bottom side in Group D. Not only is Fenerbahce coming off a 3-0 loss to Olympiacos (at home) in their last Europa League fixture, but they also lost last weekend in the Turkish Super Lig, 3-1 to Trabzonspor. That despite opening up the scoring in the third minute. They’ve lost only two times on the domestic side this season and as far as European football is concerned, this is pretty much a “must win.” This figures to be the ONLY Group D match where they are favored. 8* Fenerbahce Istanbul |
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10-19-21 | Real Madrid -173 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Group D has certainly been turned “upside down” in this year’s Champions League with the shocking start from upstart Sheriff Tiraspol. The first time UCL entrant from Moldova leads the group with a 2-0 record as they have defeated both Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk. Those two sides meet Tuesday in a key clash. Real Madrid, who did defeat Inter Milan 1-0 in their opening fixture here, can move level with Sheriff with a win. I look for them to get the much needed three points. Shakhtar Donetsk have yet to win in this year’s Champions League. In addition to their shock loss to Sheriff, they shared the points in a goalless draw with Inter. While things are going well on the domestic front for the Ukrainian side, the step up to UCL has always proven to be a bit challenging. They’ve won just four of their last 21 matches in this competition. Even here on home soil they tend to struggle, winning just five of the last 17 UCL fixtures. I think they are pretty clearly outmanned in this one. Real Madrid has been off for awhile as last weekend’s fixture with Athletic Club (in La Liga) had to be postponed due to the South American World Cup qualifiers. So they have not been on the pitch since taking a surprise 2-1 loss to Espanyol on Oct 3. I think Real Madrid will come out VERY motivated on Tuesday as they’ve since fallen out of first place in La Liga (despite having, by far, the best goal differential) and are actually winless in their last three across all competitions. They are far too good for such a streak to continue. Further sweetening the pot is the fact Los Blancos have double revenge from LY’s UCL Group stage. Expect a big win for the favorite today. 10* Real Madrid |
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10-18-21 | Cadiz CF v. RCD Espanyol -150 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
8* Espanyol (3:00 ET): A lot of what I said about Elche (the side I faded in Sunday’s La Liga action) also applies here to Cadiz. I thought that the Yellow Submarine were rather fortunate to remain in the Spanish top flight after last year. They were definitely fortunate to finish 12th in the table. I say that based on the fact they had the second lowest xPts total in La Liga, ahead of only Elche. This is the first time since the 90’s that Cadiz is playing at this level in B2B seasons. Currently in 14th, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them fall closer to the drop zone by the end of the campaign. Espanyol is what Cadiz was last season, a newly promoted side just trying to stay at the top level of Spanish football. They’ve made a decent accounting of themselves thus far as they are two points ahead of Cadiz (with 9) and have a slightly better goal differential. They’ve won two of three including a 2-1 upset of Real Madrid (who was in 1st place at the time) right before the International Break. Espanyol, last year’s Segunda Division champs, knows how to win and I expect them to collect the full three points in this fixture. Cadiz has won only once this term and it was away against Celta Vigo. Since that time, they’ve played two goalless draws (against Valencia and Barcelona) with a 3-1 loss to Rayo Vallecano sandwiched in between. I know that the three points here are critical to both sides in the fight to avoid relegation. I just happen to think that Espanyol is the better side. 8* Espanyol |
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10-17-21 | Atalanta -165 v. Empoli | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): Perennial Serie A heavyweights Atalanta currently sit 8th in the table and that is simply not acceptable from where their fans sit. It’s actually a four-way tie for 6th that La Dea finds itself in, but they trail Lazio in goal differential. Traditionally one of the highest scoring sides in the league, it’s pretty shocking to see Atalanta with only 10 goals after seven matches. It’s fixtures like this one that they must win if they are to move up the table and get closer to the top four. I think they will take the full three points Sunday. Empoli is one of the newly promoted sides for 2021/22. They shocked Juventus earlier in the season, but have also been rather inconsistent. Before the International Break, they lost 2-0 to Roma, snapping a two-match win streak. I think they’re a bit lucky to be 10th in the table right now considering they have the third lowest expected point total in all of Serie A. Not only have they scored far more than expected, they’ve also conceded fewer times than what the metrics suggest they should have given up. Atalanta has not lost in their last nine away matches - posting six wins - so I’m not worried about them travelling here. Including Champions League play, La Dea has lost only once in their last six across all competitions, that being their last time out to Milan 3-2. Look for them to bounce back from that defeat here against a vulnerable side that is not able to compete with the clubs in the top half of the table. The last time Atalanta faced Empoli in Serie A (April ‘19), they had 47 shots on goal! 10* Atalanta |
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10-17-21 | Elche v. Rayo Vallecano -114 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rayo Vallecano (8:00 AM ET): Compared to the recently promoted sides in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A, the 2021 newcomers in La Liga are making a decent accounting of themselves. Of the three, Rayo Vallecano has been the most impressive. They currently sit sixth in the table, having taken 13 points from their eight matches. Though they were blanked 1-0 by Osasuna right before the International Break, that result snapped a five-match unbeaten streak for Vallecano, which included four victories. I like them to pick up the full three points this week at the expense of a side in the bottom half of the table. I thought Elche was arguably the weakest side in all of La Liga last season. They were fortunate not to be relegated as they finished with the lowest xPts total in the league (30.31). Only one team (last place Eibar) suffered more defeats. This year has seen Los Franjiverdes be more competitive as they have a decent defensive record. But they’ve only scored five times in eight matches and that’s the primary reason why they currently sit 14th in the table with just nine points. Elche has not scored more than one goal in any La Liga fixture this season. Rayo has scored multiple goals in four different matches, so they’ve got a substantial edge in front of the net. They’ve also done a much better job defensively since losing 3-0 to Sevilla in the opener. Since then, they’ve conceded only five times in seven matches and never more than once in any individual match. They’ve also won all three fixtures here at the Estadio de Vallecas. Elche has just one away victory this season and is dealing with multiple injuries right now, so it’s tough to see them even sharing the points here. 10* Rayo Vallecano |
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10-16-21 | Stuttgart v. Borussia Monchengladbach -192 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -192 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
7* Borussia Monchengladbach (12:30 ET): These are two mid-table sides in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Stuttgart. Both teams have a -1 goal differential. But the hosts are two points ahead based on the fact they have three wins and only one draw whereas Stuttgart has two wins and two draws. Both have three losses. The picture I’ve painted (thus far) may not point to Gladbach having any kind of huge advantage Saturday, but the oddsmakers sure think they do and I’m inclined to agree with their assessment. After a slow start to the season, Gladbach has seemingly “turned the proverbial corner” by winning three of its last four fixtures. Right before the International Break, they downed Wolfsburg by a score of 3-1, which was perhaps their most impressive win to date. Or maybe it was the 1-0 win over Dortmund the week prior. Either way, Gladbach has conceded only three times in the last four matches and in terms of goals scored, I expect them to pick up the pace moving forward. Stuttgart also won its last Bundesliga fixture 3-1 as they beat Hoffenheim. But before that it was a poor run of form for VFB as they’d picked just two points from five matches. That run included a bad 4-0 loss to Leipzig and perhaps equally embarrassing 0-0 draw with Bochum (who is 2nd from the bottom). During the Int’l Break, Stuttgart played a friendly with second tier side Sandhausen and shockingly lost 4-1. So that’s not going to do wonders for their confidence as they hit the road, where they’ve yet to win this season. Look for the home team to get all three points in this one. 7* Borussia Monchengladbach |
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10-03-21 | Sevilla -132 v. Granada | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
10* Sevilla (3:00 ET): The only unbeaten La Liga side besides top of the table Real Madrid, Sevilla looks to continue its recent roll as they head to Granada this weekend. While it was another in the Champions League mid-week (1-1 vs. Wolfsburg), Los Nervionenses has won B2B fixtures in the Spanish top flight, putting the sword to both Valencia and Espanyol in a pair of two-goal victories. Despite having played only six matches thus far, Sevilla could pull level with Real Madrid for first by day’s end. Granada is at the opposite end of the table right now as they are one of only three La Liga sides without a win this season. They currently sit in the relegation zone (18th) with just three points from seven matches. This wasn’t expected from the Red and Whites as they finished in the top 10 each of the L2 seasons. But this season has obviously gone poorly and they’ve lost two straight. I faded them on Monday against Celta Vigo, which ended up being a brutal 1-0 loss with the lone goal coming in stoppage time. A short week isn’t the time for Granada to turn things around against one of La Liga’s best sides. Sevilla has finished fourth each of the last two campaigns and looks to have the goods to finish even closer to the top in 2021/22. I know they were in Germany Wednesday, but they could not have asked for a better fixture this weekend in their return to the domestic front. They have won four of their last five against Granada. 10* Sevilla |
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10-03-21 | Bayer Leverkusen -131 v. Arminia Bielefeld | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
10* Bayer Leverkusen (1:30 ET): I wasn’t expecting to see Leverkusen sitting second in the Bundesliga table, but that’s where they were entering the weekend. They’ve been a little fortunate as they are only middle of the table in expected points (xPts) as their number of goals scored (16) greatly exceeds what should have been expected. But regression will not come this week as they face winless Arminia Bielefeld, who is the joint lowest scoring side in the Bundesliga right now. Leverkusen has scored three or more goals in four of their six Bundesliga matches. Bielefeld has scored only three times this season. So this is not a good matchup for the home side. Bielefeld has lost only twice, but has just four points (all on draws) and sits 16th in the table, a dangerous spot to be in (would put them in the relegation playoff). They are second from the bottom in xPts. Remember that they scored the second fewest goals last season in the Bundesliga with only one more than relegated Schalke. Meanwhile, there is plenty of optimism surrounding this Leverkusen side thanks to new manager Gerardo Seoane and teenage sensation Florian Wirtz, who already has four goals and four assists. In addition to the fast start here in the German top flight, Bayer is coming off a commanding 4-0 win in the Europa League midweek against Celtic. Normally, I might be fearful of a letdown, but Bayer has revenge for a loss last March to Bielefeld. 10* Bayer Leverkusen |
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10-03-21 | Brentford v. West Ham United -112 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
10* West Ham United (9:00 AM ET): Newly promoted Brentford has certainly turned some heads in their return to the Premier League. At the start of the season, it was thought the goal would be simply to avoid relegation, but here we are after six matches and the Bees are firmly a mid-table side with just one loss. They are off a spirited 3-3 draw with Liverpool last week where they twice rallied from a goal deficit in front of a raucous home crowd. But this week they’ve got to hit the road to face another team above them in the table. West Ham finished in sixth place last season, earning them a spot in the Europa League. So far in 2021/22, the Hammer have the look of a side that will again challenge for a top spot. They too have lost only one Premier League match this season and it required a comeback by Manchester United to beat them. Since then, they’ve gone a perfect 3-0 over the L10 days. They avenged the loss to Man U with a win in the Carabao Cup, picked up a EPL win against Leeds then blanked Rapid Vienna 2-0 in the Europa League Group stage. While balancing European football with the domestic side can be tricky, I think the Hammers have what it takes to get the full three points at home this week They’ve scored nine times in four matches at London Stadium this season and entered the weekend as the second highest scoring EPL team overall. Only two teams - Man City and Tottenham - have earned more points at home since the turn of the year. It felt that Brentford was a little lucky to earn that draw last week. They won’t be as lucky this week. 10* West Ham United |
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10-02-21 | Inter Milan -144 v. Sassuolo Calcio | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
10* Inter Milan (2:45 PM ET): Despite coming off successive draws - one here in Serie A and the other in the Champions League - current Scudetto holders Inter Milan are still to be feared every time they are on the pitch. They’ve yet to lose on the domestic front this season, having won four and drawn twice. Only fellow unbeatens Napoli and AC Milan are currently ahead of them in the table. Inter is the highest scoring side in Serie A and has the second best goal differential. A win today would move them ahead of AC Milan into second and within a point of Napoli. I see them getting the full three today against their lesser opponent. It was a wild 2-2 draw with Atalanta last weekend for Inter. There was no shame in sharing the points there. A goalless draw with Shakhtar Donetsk was the rare instance of them not finding the back of the net. While they’ve struggled in the Champions League so far, Inter is just the second team since the turn of the century to score 20 goals in the first six matches of a Serie A season. Also, they can set a new club record by scoring twice against Sassuolo here. It would be their 12th straight match with 2+ goals. Sassuolo finds itself in a familiar position, that being the middle of the table as they’ve only been able to manage two wins so far. One of them came last week against recently promoted Salernitana, the team currently at the foot of the table. That was Sassuolo’s first win since defeating Hellas Verona 3-2 in the opener. In between the two wins, they drew once and lost three times. They managed just two goals in that four match stretch, so clearly they lack the firepower to compete with a side like Inter. They lost both fixtures with them last season by a combined score of 5-1. 10* Inter Milan |
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10-01-21 | Alavés v. Ath Bilbao -175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show |
7* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): Perhaps the most shocking result of the La Liga season (so far) took place last week when Alaves, then at the foot of the table, scored its first win by shocking reigning champs Atletico Madrid 1-0. The lone goal came early (4th minute) and somehow that was enough, despite Alaves losing the possession battle by a very wide margin (71-29%). I simply cannot see this bottom of the table side scoring a positive result two weeks in a row, so it’s an easy decision to fade here. Athletic Club will certainly take Alaves more seriously given what transpired last week. The fact Bilbao has picked up only two points from its last three matches, one of them coming in a 1-1 draw with Valencia last week, will also have them hungry on Friday. This is a team that started the season strong and still only has suffered one defeat, which came in the closing seconds of stoppage time against Rayo Vallecano. Honestly, getting them below -200 on the ML at home seems like a steal. Bilbao is rightly considered a middle of the table side as they are currently in 10th, the same place they finished last season. But they’ve only conceded four goals all season, the fewest for any team that’s played seven matches (Sevilla and Villarreal have conceded 2 and 3 goals, respectively, in six matches). Alaves’ goal last week was just their second of the La Liga season, tied for the fewest with winless Getafe. Adding to the favorite’s motivation are some less than desirable results vs. Alaves in previous seasons. They roll here at home. 7* Athletic Bilbao |
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10-01-21 | Venezia v. Cagliari -134 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -134 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
9* Cagliari (2:45 ET): One of only two Serie A sides still without win, Cagliari will be desperate for the three points on Friday as they host the side right above them in the table, recently promoted Venezia. Though two points up on Cagliari, thanks to a win and a draw, Venezia actually has the lower expected point total (xPts) and also occupies a place in the relegation zone. I’m betting that Cagliari finally gets into the win column here. It’s a short week for Venezia, who just played Monday and drew 1-1 with Torino. That should work against them here as they have to hit the road where they’ve already lost three of four this season while being outscored 8-2. I did not expect much from I Lagunari in 2021/22 as they finished 5th in Serie B last season only to go on a somewhat miraculous run in the Promotion Playoff. Their lone win of this campaign came against another newly promoted side, Empoli, three weeks ago. Cagliari lost to Empoli 2-0 two weeks ago and then went down by that same score against the current first place team in Serie A (that being Napoli) last week. They were fairly competitive against Napoli with one of the two goals conceded coming on a penalty. Cagliari has drawn twice, once away against Lazio, so they’ve shown they will compete for new manager Walter Mazzari. There is potential to pick up points each of the next three fixtures, but it must start here by getting the full three. 9* Cagliari |
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10-01-21 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. FC Koln -190 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
7* FC Koln (2:30 ET): As I’ve written many times before, I don’t think there’s a worse side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A) than Greuther Furth. Currently occupying the foot of the table, it figures to be a “one and done” stay in the German top flight for the recently promoted side. They still have zero wins and have taken only one point from six matches. Their -12 goal differential is also the worst in the Bundesliga. Koln needed to win the relegation playoff back in May just to remain in the top flight, but this season has gotten off to a promising start. Currently on a four-match unbeaten run, the Billy Goats have climbed to seventh in the table with nine points and a positive goal differential (+2). They’ve only lost one time this season and it was a close one (3-2) to the class of the league, Bayern Munich, where Koln fought back from a 2-0 deficit. Now they have played to a 1-1 draw each of their last three times on the pitch. But this sets up as the easiest fixture of 2021/22. Greuther Furth, as expected, lost to Bayern Munich last week. But what made the 3-1 defeat especially embarrassing is that Bayern was down a man for basically the entire second half and still scored (on an own goal!) This is only the second season Furth has ever competed in the Bundesliga and they finished last the first time (in 2013). They’ve yet to win a single match since earning promotion back in May, lost to an amateur side in the DFB Pokal and that lone Bundesliga point came at the expense of another side (Bielefeld) that was down to 10 men. Koln gets the full three (points) here. 7* FC Koln |
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09-30-21 | Galatasaray v. Marseille -152 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -152 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
10* Marseille (3:00 ET): This is a pretty crucial three points for host Marseille, who has claimed just one victory in their last four competitions and has a tough upcoming stretch of fixtures. They’re off their first loss of the season in Ligue 1 and an underwhelming 1-1 draw against Lokomotiv Moscow before that in the opener of the Europa League group stage. But I see Les Olympiens bouncing back this week against an underdog that’s off a pretty shocking win in its Europa League opener. Few gave Galatasaray much of a shot at beating Lazio two weeks ago, however the Turkish side stunned their Serie A opponent 1-0. Now the difference was an own goal by Lazio in the 66th minute. So we shouldn’t give Galatasaray too much credit for opening Group E play with a win. Furthermore, they have displayed poor form recently in the Super Lig, needing two second half goals on Sunday to overcome Goztepe and avert what would have been a third straight loss on the domestic front. I think the biggest key to this match though is the fact it takes place on French soil. Marseille has lost just once in its last 12 home fixtures, that being Sunday’s 3-2 loss to Lens. But even in defeat they continued a streak that has seen them score at least twice in every home fixture this season. Two goals here would be far too much to overcome for Galatasaray, who is winless in its last 19 away matches in the Champions and Europa Leagues with 15 losses and four draws. All signs point to Marseille rolling on Thursday afternoon. 10* Marseille |
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09-29-21 | Malmö FF v. Zenit Petersburg -172 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
10* Zenit St. Petersburg (12:45 ET): When this year’s Champions League draw was first announced, I don’t think that there was any doubt as to whom the two favorites were in Group H. Both Juventus as well as reigning UCL holders Chelsea are widely expected to move on to the Round of 16, leaving the other two sides - Zenit St. Petersberg & Malmo - to fight for the “scraps” of the Europa League or simply hope for a miracle. Those two will meet here and I think - as the linesmakers do - that ZSP has the clear edge. Current leader and three time defending champs of the Russian Premier League, Zenit St. Petersburg extended their unbeaten run on the domestic side to 18 straight matches with a come from behind 2-1 victory Krylya Sovetov last weekend. They weren’t as fortunate in the Champions League opener, losing that to 1-0 to Chelsea. They were even for 68 minutes though and ZSP shouldn’t hold its collective head over not scoring a goal. In all of Europe, there probably isn’t a tougher side to score on than Thomas Tuchel’s Blues. Not surprisingly, ZSP is the highest scoring team in the Russian Premier League. They also proved themselves to be a tough “nut” to crack against Chelsea. This is a huge drop in class facing reigning Swedish champs Malmo, who are probably just “happy to be here” and not expected to take any points in the Group Stage. Consider that they have lost their L4 UCL fixtures by an aggregate score of 20-0! That’s the most goals conceded by any side over a four-match stretch in the history of this competition. They lost 3-0 to Juventus in this year’s opener. If ZSP is to have ANY chance of challenging the top two in Group H, they must take the full three points here. I think they will. 10* Zenit St. Petersburg |
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09-27-21 | Granada v. Celta de Vigo -153 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): After picking up its first win of the campaign, Celta Vigo will now face one of the three La Liga sides that still has a zero in the win column. Granada is dead last in the league in xPts, though they’ve drawn three times. Certainly neither of these teams expected to be this close to the foot of the table, but with just three points after six matches, Granada is 18th and in the relegation zone. Celta is just one point ahead of them, in 17th place. So the three points on the line here are huge. I think the home team gets them. Celta Vigo finished a very respectable 8th in the La Liga table last season. That was just five points behind European qualifier Villarreal. I did expect the Sky Blues to regress some in 2021/22, but not to this degree. Looking through the previous run of fixtures, it’s not hard to see why Celta is off to a slow start. So far they have faced Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club and Real Madrid. They drew with a tough Osasuna team. I was surprised by the loss to Cadiz, but then finally they got on the board with a 2-0 win over Levante last week. The upcoming schedule seems favorable, with this match being followed by a date with Elche. So I expect Celta to start moving up the table. Granada finished seventh and ninth the last two years in La Liga, so they too are scratching their heads a bit. After opening 2021/22 with draws against Villarreal and Valencia, the Red and Whites have lost three of four. The draw was against Barcelona, which seems impressive but they were dominated in terms of possession in that match. It was the same thing in a 3-2 loss to Real Sociedad midweek. This is now Granada’s third match in the last seven days and they come in sporting the joint worst defensive record in La Liga (11 goals allowed). They’ve failed to score in three of the previous five meetings with Celta and lost 3-1 here last season. 8* Celta Vigo |
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09-26-21 | Cadiz CF v. Rayo Vallecano -142 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
8* Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): The three newly promoted sides in La Liga are all faring better than you’d expect. But Rayo Vallecano is clearly faring the best of the three. Los Vellecanos currently sit sixth in the table, which would be good enough for Europa League qualifying at season’s end, with 10 points taken from the first six matches. After their return to the Spanish top flight began with understandable losses to Sevilla and Real Sociedad, Vallecano is unbeaten its last four and coming off B2B wins. Cadiz earned promotion last season and really surprised me with a 12th place finish. The advance metrics clearly said they were fortunate to be a mid-table side as Los Piratas actually finished with the second fewest expected point total (xPts) in the league. I pegged them to regress back towards the relegation zone before this season got underway and again am a bit perplexed at how competitive they’ve been. They just drew Barcelona (0-0) midweek after earning a 2-1 win over Celta Vigo last Friday. That said, the win over Celta Vigo represents Cadiz’s lone victory this season. They were dominated in terms of possession by Barca and fortunate that their opponents were down to 10 men after Frenkie de Jong was sent off (red card) in the 65 minutes. So for roughly one-third of the match, Cadiz had a man advantage on the pitch and still couldn’t net a goal. Vallecano didn't get the game-winner until the 96th minute against Athletic Club, but had previously left nothing to chance in dominant wins over Getafe and Granada. They are clearly the better side here and will nab the full three points. 8* Rayo Vallecano |
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09-25-21 | Borussia Dortmund -117 v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
9* Borussia Dortmund (12:30 ET): It’s Derby week at Borussia Park as Gladbach welcomes in high-flying Dortmund on Saturday. The hosts are not in good form at all this Bundesliga season, sitting dangerously close to the relegation zone. They’ve collected only four points from the first five matches. The fact they’ve yet to lose at home may give the faithful some false hope for this one, but that opening week draw against Bayern Munich feels like ages ago. They’ve dropped three of four since with the lone win coming here against Arminia Bielefeld, another side that’s shown poor form in 2021/22. Dortmund is currently third in the table, looking up only at surprising Wolfsburg and of course Bayern Munich. BVB was widely expected to be the top challenger to Bayern this season and led by the fantastic Erling Haaland, they’ve already scored 17 times (most besides Bayern). They do need to get a little better when it comes to conceding as the 11 goals allowed is the fifth worst defensive mark in the Bundesliga right now. But I don’t think it’ll be an issue moving forward. They allowed the sixth fewest goals in the league last season. The big story here will be Dortmund’s manager Marco Rose facing the club he just left. Most saw Rose’s decision to jump as a wise career move. Dortmund has beaten Gladbach in 11 of the 12 prior league meetings, the one loss coming in last season’s visit. That’s since been avenged with a 1-0 win in the DFB Pokal. BVB is clearly the superior side this season. But you can bet Rose is looking to avoid what would be a certain embarrassment with a loss here. His side has scored at least two goals in four straight competitions. Meanwhile, Gladbach could not even manage a shot on goal in LW’s 1-0 loss to struggling Augsburg. 9* Borussia Dortmund |
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09-25-21 | RCD Espanyol v. Sevilla -160 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Sevilla (12:30 ET): The fourth place finisher in each of the last two La Liga seasons, Sevilla is looking like it has “what it takes” to challenge the heavyweights of Spanish football in 2021/22. While they are again currently sitting in the familiar fourth place position, Los Hispalenses have a game in hand over the three sides ahead of them and should be able to keep pace this week when they entertain a recently promoted side to the Spanish top flight, Espanyol. I’m predicting three more points here. Sevilla turned in a dominant performance midweek, defeating fellow top five side Valencia, 3-1. Now they are taking on a team that’s in 13th place and off its first win of the season. Espanyol has only managed to score four goals so far, all of them coming in the previous three fixtures. That’s only one more than Sevilla scored in the opening 22 minutes against Valencia. The only win so far for Espanyol came against Alaves, 1-0, and that’s the team sitting at the foot of the La Liga table with zero points right now. Sevilla has not lost this season, earning three victories and two draws. They don’t spend as much as Barcelona or the two Madrid clubs, but with Barca having a down year (so far), this could be Sevilla’s best shot at winning La Liga for the first time since 1946. I give them a great shot at topping last season’s 77 point total, which was a club record. Other than Real Madrid, I don’t see a better side in all of La Liga right now. Espanyol is a definite bottom of the table side this year. 10* Sevilla |
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09-25-21 | Norwich City v. Everton -147 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
8* Everton (10:00 AM ET): It’s been a tough last seven days for the Toffies as they suffered their first defeat of the Premier League season AND were unceremoniously bounced from the Carabao Cup by a second tier side. I could think of no better matchup for them to bounce back than the one they’ve got here against Norwich City, a newly promoted side that sits at the foot of the table. You should look for Everton to regain its previous good form and collect the full three points here. Norwich City is dead last in the Premier League right now, the only side yet to collect a single point. Not like that’s any kind of shock as most believed it was going to be tough for them to remain in the English top flight after this season. But the first five weeks probably couldn’t have gone any worse as they’ve lost every fixture and been outscored 14-2 in the process. In addition to having the worst defensive record in the league, the Canaries are tied for the fewest goals scored. The only thing they really have in common with Everton is that they too bowed out of the Carabao Cup midweek. The 3-0 loss to Liverpool in the Carabao Cup marked the third time in their last seven competitions that Norwich has lost by three or more goals. That doesn’t even include last week’s 3-1 loss to fellow newly promoted side Watford. Everton had been rolling with a +6 GD through its first four Premier League matches. Even with the humbling 3-0 loss to Aston Villa, the Toffies still sit sixth in the table and will be in the running for European football next season. They’ve won three in a row on home soil while Norwich has lost eight straight on the road in the Premier League, netting only one goal in the process. 8* Everton |
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09-25-21 | Atletico Madrid -176 v. Alavés | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -176 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
7* Atletico Madrid (8:00 AM ET): This is the second fixture in a row where I can’t believe how cheap Atletico Madrid is on the three-way line. Earlier in the week, I took them against a Getafe in what turned out to be a deserved come from behind victory. Now this price may not seem that cheap, but when you consider it’s the reigning La Liga champs against the team at the foot of the table, anything short of -200 seems like a steal. Don’t overthink this one as Los Colchoneros should pick up an easy three points. Alaves, just like Atletico Madrid’s previous opponent, are without a win this season. But they are even weaker than Getafe, even if it’s only by the slightest of margins. Alaves sits at the bottom of the table based on goal differential and they have not scored in any of their previous four matches! It figures to be a real struggle for them to survive in the Spanish top flight this season just as it was last year when they finished only four points clear of the drop zone. Not surprisingly, they lost twice to Atletico in 2020/21. While the perception is that the champs are struggling a bit, they still are without a loss in six La Liga encounters. It’s been four wins and two draws and they’ve conceded only five times. Remember hey conceded only 25 times all of last season on their way to winning the league. I’d be surprised if they conceded at all here as Alaves has scored only one goal this season and it came in a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid. Since then, they’ve been outscored 7-0 over four fixtures, including two losses to newly promoted sides. This is a colossal mismatch. 7* Atletico Madrid |
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09-23-21 | Udinese v. Roma -185 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
6* Roma (2:45 ET): AS Roma is off its first loss of the Serie A season, a bit of a shocker as they fell 3-2 to Hellas Verona last week. But this is a great chance to bounce back as they are on a six-match win streak at Stadio Olimpico and will be hosting an Udinese side that has had little time to recover from its 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Napoli on Monday. So in addition to having the home turf edge, Roma has a bit of a scheduling advantage as well. (They last played on Sunday). Look for them to get the full three points here ahead of this Sunday’s derby with rival Lazio. It was also Udinese’s first loss of the Serie A campaign on Monday, although theirs came far more decisively than Roma’s did. They conceded twice in both halves, a result that reduced their YTD goal differential back down to zero. Previously, Udinese had beaten Spezia and Venezia, two of the weaker sides in Serie A. They’d also played to a 2-2 draw with Juventus, which no longer looks as impressive as it did at the time (Juve struggling big time). So Udinese has yet to defeat a team in the upper half of the table. It may not get as ugly as Monday did, but this is poised to be another humbling defeat. I’d gone with Roma each of the first three weeks as they beat Fiorentina, Salernitana and Sassuolo in succession. With them taking maximum points from those three fixtures, I laid off last week against Verona. I was kind of regretting that decision when they led at halftime. But a poor second half confirmed my belief they were due for a letdown. Now I’ll get back on the horse and once again note that new manager Jose Mourinho has the second highest point percentage in the Italian top flight this century. This is going to be a side to be reckoned with in 2021. 6* Roma |
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09-22-21 | Elche v. Villarreal UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Elche/Villarreal (4:00 ET): It’s pretty hard to fathom that Villarreal is still winless at this point of the La Liga season. But on the bright side, they also have yet to lose a match. The Yellow Submarine have drawn four straight times to open 2021/22, leaving them in 14th place and six points out of Champions League position. It’s a far cry from last year’s 7th place finish where I thought they were pretty much on par with the top four. Now Elche is a side that I thought was lucky to escape relegation last season. They had the lowest xPt total in all of La Liga - by a pretty wide margin - and ended up just two points clear of the drop zone, in 17th place. The gap between them and 13th place was larger than the gap between them and the foot of the table. Shockingly, they are currently two points ahead of Villarreal at the moment and 12th in the table, having taken six points from this season’s first five matches. They are unbeaten in their last three, having drawn both Sevilla and Levante with a 1-0 win over Getafe sandwiched in between. These are two of the lowest scoring sides in all of La Liga. Three of Villarreal’s four draws have been 0-0 with the only goals scored and conceded coming in a 2-2 final with Atletico Madrid when they gave up an own goal in stoppage time. With one game in hand compared to most of the league, the tendency is to say there’s no reason for LY’s Europa League winners to panic. But they also haven’t won since defeating Manchester United last May. It was a winless preseason. They will be without Gerard Moreno, their biggest attacking threat, on Wednesday and that’s a significant loss. As for Elche, there have been only six total goals scored in their five fixtures thus far and none have seen more than two goals scored. 10* Under Elche/Villarreal |
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09-21-21 | Sassuolo Calcio v. Atalanta -175 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 44 h 11 m | Show |
10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): Perennial Serie A power Atalanta has an excellent chance to move up the table on Tuesday when it takes on struggling Sassuolo. The third place finisher each of the previous three campaigns, Atalanta currently sits just eighth in the standings, having taken only seven points from their first four matches. Rightfully regarded as a “high-flying” side, perhaps the most shocking thing about Atalanta’s start is that they’ve scored only four goals. Each of those previous three seasons, they’ve led the Italian top flight in goals scored. I sense them breaking loose here and nabbing all three points. Sassuolo sits in 12th position right now, having taken just four points from their four matches. They too have scored four times, but have conceded five, which is two more than Atalanta has. The lone win this season for Sassuolo came in the opening match, 3-2 over Hellas Verona. Since then, they’ve really struggled for new manager Alessio Dionisi with the only point coming from a goalless draw against Sampdoria. They are off B2B losses, to Roma and Torino, the latter again seeing them fail to score. It’s not like Atalanta has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Neroverdi; they’ve been outscored 16-5 in the previous five meetings. So this seems like an unlikely spot for a turnaround. Atalanta desperately needed the goal they got in the 75th minute from Duvan Zapata against last place Salernitana last week. It not only gave them the win and three points, but also ensured they wouldn’t be winless over three straight Serie A matches, something they have not done since last November. A 2-2 draw with La Liga’s Villarreal in the Champions League was respectable, but the losses that preceded it - 2-1 to Fiorentina and 1-0 to Bologna here in Serie A - were not. As I wrote earlier, this just feels like a club ready to “break out” and I see them putting the sword to Sassuolo here. 10* Atalanta |
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09-21-21 | Atletico Madrid -138 v. Getafe CF | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 43 h 57 m | Show |
8* Atletico Madrid (1:30 ET): This is a shockingly low price on the reigning La Liga champs as they face one of the teams at the foot of the table. Coming into the 2021/22 season, I was a little leery that Atletico might regress, but so far that has not happened as they are one of three sides in the Spanish top flight to have played five matches and not taste defeat. Now they are off consecutive goalless draws, one of those coming in the Champions League against Portuguese power Porto, but the side they are facing here has scored only once in four La Liga fixtures so far. It should be an easy three points for Los Colchoneros. While Atletico has yet to taste defeat in the Spanish top flight this season, Getafe has yet to win a single match. They are the only team in La Liga to have played five times and have zero points to show for it. They are 19th in the table right now and the only reason they aren’t sitting in last place (20th) is because 0-0-4 Alaves has an inferior goal differential. Getafe finished dangerously close to the drop zone a season ago (just four points clear) so their current position is really nothing new. They were dealt a tough set of fixtures to open this season with Valencia, Sevilla and Barcelona being the first three opponents. But a 1-0 loss to Elche and 3-0 loss to newly promoted Rayo Vallecano over the last two weeks only served to confirm what most already knew - this side is one of the worst in La Liga. The fact Atletico hasn’t scored in B2B matches makes me think they are due for a major breakthrough here. All it will likely take is one goal considering Getafe has been unable to score even one time in the last five meetings. Remember that Atletico conceded only 25 times all of last season, the fewest number in the league. Other than a 2-2 draw with Villarreal on August 29th, they’ve conceded only one other time in their last five across all competitions. Though Joao Fenix wasn’t sent off until late (78th minute), it is worth noting Los Colchoneros were down to 10 men by the end of Saturday’s draw against Athletic Bilbao. At this price, the reigning champs are a steal. 8* Atletico Madrid |
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09-19-21 | Chelsea -130 v. Tottenham Hotspur | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (11:30 AM ET): Midweek saw the Blues begin the defense of their Champions League crown by earning a relatively easy three points with a comfortable 3-0 win over Zenit St. Petersburg. Now they turn back to the domestic front where a win Sunday would put them level with Liverpool atop the Premier League table. Chelsea very much has the look of a side that can win the EPL this year. Through four weeks, they are one of four clubs yet to taste defeat. There is no denying the improvement that has taken place since Thomas Tuchel took the reins a little under a year ago. I like them to keep rolling in the London derby. Tottenham began the Premier League campaign with three straight 1-0 victories. But all it took was one drubbing to level their goal differential. It was a shock 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace last week and then to make matters worse the Spurs then could only manage a draw (2-2) with Rennes to start the Europa Conference League. So recent form has been quite shaky, at least compared to Chelsea over the last week. Perhaps Tottenham was due for that drubbing at the hands of Crystal Palace as they actually sport the 4th lowest xPts total in the league. The metrics suggest they are very fortunate to have allowed only three goals to this point. If the Spurs are counting on a return to North London being a “cure-all,” they best think again as it’s been nearly 20 years since they won their first three home EPL matches. They were a bit lucky to earn the draw midweek as they were the beneficiaries of an own-goal and then it was Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg coming off the bench for the equalizer. Injuries and suspensions have weakened the starting XI for this big matchup with a Chelsea team that has been beaten only once in its last 15 EPL away matches while scoring at least a goal in six straight. Furthermore, the Blues are unbeaten in the last five fixtures with the Spurs, winning four times and conceding only once. They’ve also conceded just one goal in the first four matches this season, a carryover from last season’s stinginess. 10* Chelsea |
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09-17-21 | Cadiz CF v. Celta de Vigo -175 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -175 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): This particular La Liga fixture jumped right out at me when gazing at this weekend’s soccer card. Cadiz is a side that was fortunate not to get relegated in 2020/21. They finished with the second lowest expected point total (xPts) in La Liga, yet somehow ended up 12th in the table. They were outscored by 22 goals, a differential that only two teams were worse than (Real Valladolid and Eibar) and both of them were relegated. It was their first year back from the Segunda Division and Cadiz conceded the second most goals in the league. So I’m going to be looking to play against them regularly this season, including this Friday at Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo, like Cadiz, is one of the eight La Liga sides without a victory through four weeks. They actually have one fewer point. The lone point came from a goalless draw with Osasuna in the second match of the season. Having faced both Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid thus far, it’s not a total shock to see Os Celestes with some losses on their resume. But this definitely isn’t what they were thinking following an eighth place finish a season ago. A fixture like this one is something they must take advantage of and get the full three points. I believe they will. Celta Vigo actually had the lead not once but twice against Real Madrid before wilting in the second half. Conceding five goals in that one skews the season total, but consider they’d allowed a total of only three goals in the first three matches. They whipped Cadiz 4-0 here at home last season. Cadiz is off a 2-0 loss to Real Sociedad last week and is fortunate to have two points as they drew Levante thanks to a 97th minute equalizer and then only scored on a penalty in another 1-1 draw with Real Betis. Since then, it’s been back to back losses. Cadiz has not scored in any of the last four fixtures with Celta Vigo. 8* Celta Vigo |
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09-17-21 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. Hertha Berlin -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
10* Hertha Berlin (2:30 ET): After starting 0-3, Hertha Berlin picked up its first win of the Bundesliga campaign last week by beating VfL Bochum 3-1. This week they’ll face the other newly promoted side in the German top flight, Greuther Furth, who might just be the weakest side in all of Europe’s top four leagues. This is an excellent opportunity for Hertha Berlin to pick up three points and move away from the relegation zone, a place they finished dangerously close to a season ago. They ended up 14th, but only two points clear, due to a rocky finish that was heavily impacted by COVID. I won’t take them very often in 2021/22, but they are a solid play Friday. Gruether Furth is the side that “keeps on giving” as I’ve gone against them in each of the last two fixtures and come away with easy victories. Back before the international break, they lost 3-0 to Mainz. Then last weekend it was a 2-0 loss to first place Wolfsburg. In retrospect, the prices I got on those opponents seem almost too good to be true. As I said earlier, Furth looks to be easily the weakest side in the Bundesliga this season and maybe the worst team in any of Europe’s big four leagues. They were thoroughly dominated by Wolfsburg last week, losing the possession battle 71-29 percent. The only time Furth has been able to earn a point this year was when they were matched up against Arminia Bielefeld, who was down to 10 men for the final 20 minutes. Since earning promotion last May, Furth has yet to win a single match! They had an embarrassing elimination in the DFB-Pokal at the hands of an amateur side. Having not scored a single goal B2B fixtures while also conceding 11 times on the season, things are looking really dire right now for the team at the foot of the table. Remember that this is just the club’s second season ever in the Bundesliga. The first, back in 2013, saw them finish last. Hertha Berlin’s 0-3 start wasn’t all that shocking when you consider they faced Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich, the two top teams in the table right now. They had a solid preseason which included a win over Liverpool and they advanced in the DFB-Pokal. Look for them to get the full three points here. 10* Hertha Berlin |
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09-13-21 | Burnley v. Everton -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
10* Everton (3:00 ET): Everton can join Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table with a win Monday. Those three English heavyweights are all 3-1-0 through four weeks and Everton would share in that record if they take the full three points here from also-ran Burnley. I like their chances as it’s been a tremendous start to the season with wins over Southampton (3-1) and Brighton & Hove Albion (2-0) sandwiched around a 2-2 draw with Newcastle. Having scored at least twice in every match on the young season has the Toffees poised to make it three straight on the bounce at home. Burnley, as per usual, is sitting near the bottom of the table with just one point taken from their first three fixtures. That point came from a 1-1 draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, right before the international break. But before that it was a 2-0 loss to Liverpool and a 2-1 loss to Brighton. This is a side that finished 17th in the table a year ago, only one spot clear of the relegation zone. Once again, it’s going to be a fight this year to remain in the English top flight. The Clarets’ last four Premier League wins have all come on the road surprisingly, but they’d lost five straight overall before the draw with Leeds. In addition to the three teams that already have 10 points, you’ve got LY’s Champions (Man City), an improved Brighton and a Tottenham club that started 3-0. West Ham has looked pretty good as well with 10 goals scored so far. So the top half of the Premier League table is looking strong this season. In order to have any chance of finishing in the top four, Everton MUST win fixtures like this one. They certainly remember losing 2-1 to Burnley here at Goodison Park last season. The memory of that embarrassing result should have them properly motivated come Monday evening. I can’t see history repeating itself this time. 10* Everton |
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09-12-21 | Sassuolo Calcio v. Roma -161 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
10* Roma (3:00 ET): I’ll keep backing Roma as the Giallorossi look to continue their exceptional start to the Serie A season. Through two weeks, they’ve looked as impressive as any side in the league. They are one of five clubs to take the full six points heading into this weekend. It was a 3-1 win over Fiorentina followed by a 4-0 beatdown of recently promoted Salernitana. Roma has now won four straight across all competitions for new boss Jose Mourinho (including a pair of wins in Europa League qualifying) with an aggregate score of 12-2. Make it five in a row Sunday as they host Sassuolo. The visitors have been in the middle of the Serie A table for years now. It was B2B 11th place finishes in 2017-18 & 2018-19 followed by B2B 8th place finishes the last two seasons. They should finish in the middle again here in 2021/22 and true to form have started this campaign with a win and a draw. They beat Hellas Verona 3-2 and then had to settle for a scoreless draw with Sampdoria. Sharing the points in that second match had to be extremely frustrating considering that Sassuolo dominated possession of the ball and had 19 shots on goal. But they couldn’t put any of them in the back of the net. Sassuolo has won five straight away matches - a club record - but this will clearly be their most difficult matchup to date. Roma is rolling under Mourinho and can now win a sixth straight home game, something the club has not done since 2017. Mourinho, who always seems to have an eye on personal achievement, is also in position to win his first five fixtures with the new club. That is something that he has NEVER done before in his coaching career. He’ll be motivated to set the mark. Remember what I wrote previously - Mourinho has the second best points per game ratio of any manager in Serie A this century. Roma gets the full three here. 10* Roma |
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09-12-21 | Salernitana v. Torino -161 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
8* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Through the first two weeks of the Serie A season, four clubs are still without a point. Two of them will meet on the pitch Sunday here in Torino. The hosts have suffered back to back 2-1 setbacks, first at the hands of Atalanta (game-winner coming in stoppage time) and then Fiorentina. Meanwhile, newly promoted Salernitana has predictably struggled, conceding more goals (7) than everyone besides Spezia through two weeks. Their return to the Italian top flight (after a 22-year absence!) began with a 3-2 loss to Bologna. Then came a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Roma, which was a win for me. I’ll play against them again here. Torino is on its fifth manager in three years, which is what happens when you’re coming off back to back bottom five finishes in the table. It was a 16th place finish in 2019/20 for the Granata as they were only five points clear of relegation. They slipped a spot to 17th last year and were only four points clear of the drop zone. However, I happen to think Torino was better than their record showed in 2020/21 as their expected point total said they were more of a mid-table side. They were also the “kings of the draw” with a Serie A-high 16, a distinction no one wants. With the B2B losses to open this campaign, pressure is starting to mount on new boss Ivan Juric as his club looks to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight season. Before LY, Torino had started a Serie A season 0-3 only one time (2002). Juric is on an 11-match winless streak on the Serie A sidelines, going back to his time with Verona. So this is a really critical fixture for the home side. Fortunately, it’s the ideal matchup to get off the mat as last year’s Serie B runners up have the dubious dishonor of having both the lowest possession rate and passing accuracy in the league so far. Torino gets the full three points. 8* Torino |
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09-11-21 | Mallorca v. Ath Bilbao -138 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
10* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): No La Liga side was able to take the full nine points the first three weeks of the season. However, two of the eight that have yet to taste defeat will meet Saturday afternoon. Mallorca, a newly promoted side, has won two straight after their return to the Spanish top flight began with a 1-1 draw against Real Betis. But those wins came against Alaves (who sits at the bottom of the table) and Espanyol (another recently promoted side). I can’t see them making it four in a row without a defeat, so I’ll go with Athletic Bilbao to get the full three points in this one. Athletic Bilbao has one win and two draws to its name so far. A scoreless draw with Elche is not how they were hoping to open this campaign, but a 1-1 draw with Barcelona was more impressive and then they finally broke through with a win two weeks ago, 1-0 at Celta Vigo. Remember that Athletic Club finished in the top half of the table a season ago and would have ended up higher than 10th had they not dropped their final three matches. I know that goal scoring can be an issue for Bilbao, but they had the sixth best defensive record in La Liga last season. They’ve conceded only one time so far in three matches and that was against Barca. This is a team that played in both Copa del Rey Finals in 2020 and also won the Super Cup. They are the more proven side at this level compared to Mallorca, who have done surprisingly well for a recently promoted side. When you look across La Liga, the EPL and Bundesliga, Mallorca is the only freshly promoted side to have won twice in their first three fixtures. They are due for a loss. 10* Athletic Bilbao |
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09-11-21 | VfL Wolfsburg -165 v. SpVgg Greuther Furth | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
8* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): It hasn’t been the most impressive 3-0 start ever, but Wolfsburg sits alone atop the Bundesliga table after three weeks as the only side to have taken the full nine points. This was a team that finished fourth last season, guaranteeing them a spot in the Champions League, which begins in the next few days. But this weekend all eyes are on the domestic front as they travel to face what looks like maybe the worst side in the entire Bundesliga. I can’t see anything but Wolfsburg taking the full three here. Quite frankly, I am shocked that the line isn’t higher here based on how Greuther Furth has looked in its first three matches. The recently promoted side has captured just one point thus far and it came against another bottom of the table side (Arminia Bielefeld) in a 1-1 draw. Even then, they were fortunate to get the point as Bielefeld was down to 10 men over the last 20 minutes of the match. I had no hesitation in fading Furth their last time out as they lost 3-0 to Mainz. They looked positively horrid in that fixture. It figures to be a very long season for Furth, who is competing in the German top flight for only the second time in its history. The first came back in 2013 when they finished last. I would be shocked if they weren’t relegated back to the 2 for 2021/22. Two weeks ago, Wolfsburg picked up its most impressive win to date when they defeated RB Leipzig (LY’s 2nd place finisher) 1-0. The Wolves have conceded only one time in three matches. I know their first two fixtures (Bochum, Hertha Berlin) were both favorable, but they handled their business just as they should here. The way they were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal (for an illegal substitution) will ensure first year manager Mark van Bommell keeps his charges on their toes. As humiliating a scenario as that was, at least it wasn’t as bad as Furth losing to an amateur side in that particular tournament. Since earning their promotion from the Bundesliga 2 back in may, Furth has yet to win a single time across all competitions. 8* Wolfsburg |
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08-29-21 | Roma -181 v. Salernitana | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
7* AS Roma (2:45 ET): Roma treated us kindly in matchweek one of the Serie A season. They ran past Fiorentina 3-1. The winning didn’t stop there for new manager Jose Mourinho, however. Roma then rolled in the Europa League Conference Playoff on Thursday. So after two wins in five days, the Giallorossi now hit the road to face recently promoted Salernitana. This is Salernitana’s first time back in Serie A in 22 seasons. Their return to the Italian top flight began with a 3-2 loss to Bologna. Roma was not on par with the top five in Serie A last season. But it was still a solid top seven finish. Europa League qualifying is obviously going well. I think Mourinho was a strong hire to guide the ship. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, Mourinho has had success in this league before. His career 2.18 points per match ranks second best this century in Serie A. The next challenge is to reverse Roma’s seven match winless streak on the road, which includes five losses. Seeing as how the current streak is the longest of its kind for the club since 2000, it’s only a matter of time. Roma certainly has an ideal opponent Sunday to reverse the streak. Salernitana is going to struggle at this level. I expect them to be trying to stave off relegation. Last week’s 3-2 loss may not look that bad on the surface, but when you consider Salernitana completed 50% fewer passes than every other Serie A side last week, you can see why there’s reason for concern. They twice blew a lead against Bologna and they were fortunate to get a penalty. Even more damning is that by the end of the match Bologna had two players sent off. The key trend here is that Roma is unbeaten in its last 36 matches against newly promoted sides. 7* AS Roma |
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08-28-21 | Levante v. Real Sociedad -180 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
10* Real Sociedad (1:30 ET): Real Sociedad figures to be a player in La Liga this season. I figure they are still being undervalued though, thanks to an opening match loss to Barca two weeks ago. There was absolutely no shame in that though and Sociedad quickly bounced back with a clean sheet against recently promoted Rayo Vallecano, 1-0 last week. Let us not forget they finished fifth in the table last season and also won the delayed Copa del Rey Final over Athletic Bilbao. I like them big here. Levante has drawn each of its first two matches and in both instances they were probably disappointed to share the points. They didn’t concede until the 7th minute of stoppage time against Cadiz and they were actually ahead of Real Madrid at the hour mark last week. That they could only manage two points there will likely haunt them as they look to improve upon last season’s 14th place finish. They went back up 3-2 on Real Madrid in the 79th minute last week only to give up the equalizer in the 85th minute. Facing a second straight top five opponent from last season might be a little “too much” for Levante. I know that La Real has taken just one of the last five head to head meetings, the most recent, which was a 1-0 win last March. But they are definitely the better side here. Levante hasn’t won in La Liga since April, which is quite the drought. There have been plenty of draws, but eventually that comes back to bite you. They were actually dominated in terms of possession last week by Real Madrid. 10* Real Sociedad |
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08-28-21 | Crystal Palace v. West Ham United -178 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -178 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
7* West Ham United (10:00 AM ET): Through two weeks, there are five Premier League sides that have taken full points. One of them is West Ham, who have impressed as much as anybody with eight goals already scored. It was 4-2 over Newcastle United and then 4-1 over Leicester City. The latter was a surprise, but I didn’t care who won as long as the match went Over. (It clearly did). Now the Hammers look to stay perfect with a visit from Crystal Palace, who should be a bottom of the table team. I expect Crystal Palace to have to fend off relegation all season. They did finish 14th in 2020/21, but they were also third worst in expected points. They’ve yet to score through two weeks, losing 3-0 to Chelsea and then playing a scoreless draw against Brentford last time out. Given how prolific at goal scoring West Ham has been thus far, this looks to be a very difficult matchup for the visitors. The Eagles also failed to score in a loss to Watford midweek in EFL Cup action. So they are really struggling to find the back of the net right now. Given that CP has not exactly been an in-form side the last couple seasons, it’s surprising that West Ham has failed to win four of the last five EPL meetings. They actually haven’t defeated the Eagles on home soil since 2018. To me, they are due. Recall that West Ham were sixth place finishers in the table last season. It might be a short week, but they are simply the better side here. Expect them to nab the full three points. 7* West Ham United |
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08-28-21 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. Mainz -136 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
8* Mainz (9:30 AM ET): For only the second time in club history, Greuther Furth is in the German top flight. Their only prior experience in the Bundesliga was a brief one as they were “one and done” in 2013. Certainly, if current form holds, then this stay will be brief as well. It started with an ominous preseason where they failed to win a single friendly. They’ve already been ousted from the DFB-Pokal, losing to amateur side SV Babelsberg. The first two weeks of the Bundesliga campaign have been just as unkind. After losing the opener 5-1 to Stuttgart, Greuther Fruth could only manage a 1-1 draw against Arminia Bielefeld, who was down to 10 men by the end of the match. Mainz also figures to finish in the bottom half of the table this year. However, you wouldn’t have known that by their Week 1 upset of RB Leipzig. That result made last week’s 2-0 loss to VfL Bochum all the more frustrating. Bochum, like Greuther Furth, is a recently promoted side. Mainz certainly doesn’t want to drop points two weeks ago to opponents of this caliber. Under the direction of manager Bo Svensson, Mainz has improved. Since January, the side has gone 10-6-6 over 22 Bundesliga fixtures. A strong finish last year had them 12th in the table after fighting off relegation much of the way. You’ve got to remember how they’d taken just seven total points from the first 17 matches. Svensson will be welcoming more players back from COVID this week and that gives his club an even greater edge over an opponent that did not fare well in the transfer window and is very likely to finish last in the league. 8* Mainz |
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08-28-21 | Bayer Leverkusen -131 v. FC Augsburg | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is not only winless through two matches, they are still goalless as well. At least last week’s 0-0 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt represents “improvement” after a 4-0 schellacking at the hands of Hoffenheim on matchday one. The bottom of the Bundesliga table may be a crowded place in 2021/22. Expect Augsburg, who finished 13th last season, to be down there. In terms of expected points last year, Augsburg was 15th, or right above the relegation playoff. I expect their struggles to continue this week. Bayer Leverkusen is off to an unbeaten start and has the best goal differential in the Bundesliga entering Saturday. That’s all owed to a 4-0 win over Gladbach last week. The first week saw last year’s sixth place finishers end in a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin. It’s very much “Champions League or bust” for Leverkusen this season. The race for the fourth spot should be wide open and they have as good a chance as any. Leverkusen has owned this particular fixture, winning five of the last six. Augsburg has failed to win any of the last 20. It was very much a fortunate 0-0 draw last week for Augsburg as they really were dominated in terms of possession and shots on goal. You have to figure Augsburg will score a goal here, but that won’t be enough to share points this time. Look for the favorites to take the full three. 8* Bayer Leverkusen |
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08-27-21 | Inter Milan -169 v. Verona | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show |
8* Inter Milan (2:45 ET): Last season saw Internazionale end Juventus’ nine-year run atop Serie A. Even more impressive was how they did it. They had the Scudetto wrapped up by the first weekend of May and finished 12 points clear of everyone else. It marked the first time that Inter finished first since 2009/10. Unfortunately, then came the offseason. The core of the title team was torn apart, really angering the fanbase. However, reports of the club’s demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. The new season opened with a 4-0 thrashing of Genoa at home and I like them to win big again here. Hellas Verona was the definition of a middle of the table team last season as they had a 10th place finish. But in actuality they were a lot closer to the bottom than they were to the top. Finishing 12 points clear of the drop zone, they were never in danger of being relegated. However, there was a massive 17-point gap between them and the Europa League qualifiers. Unlike Inter, this season got off to a poor start for Verona as they fell 3-2 last week to Sassuolo. That loss extended their winless run at home to nine consecutive matches. It’s the longest drought at home w/o a Serie A win since 2016. Despite the exodus of talent that occurred over the summer, I still expect Inter to contend for a top four finish. You have to remember that they lost only three matches all of last season. This calendar year has seen them win 19 of 25 matches, which is the highest win rate by any side in any of Europe’s top five leagues besides Manchester City in the Premier League. They’ve also dominated Hellas Verona through the years, never losing in the last 20 meetings (16 wins, 4 draws). Inter had the joint-best defensive record away from home last season, conceding only 0.89 goals per match. Look for them to hand Verona it’s first 0-2 start this century. 8* Inter Milan |
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08-23-21 | Celta de Vigo +186 v. Osasuna | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
8* Celta de Vigo (4:00 ET): Normally I only play favorites on the three-way line, but this looks to be an incredible early season value on Celta de Vigo in a favorable matchup. The Sky Blues took the reigning La Liga champs Atletico Madrid to the limit on matchday one, only losing 2-1 in a spirited contest. They won the possession battle. Perhaps we shouldn’t be that shocked by this as Celta did finish 8th in the table last season, which is not too far off from Europa League qualifying. I think they will win on Monday. Osasuna has been back in the Spanish top flight for two years now, finishing 10th and 11th. Those are the club’s highest La Liga finishes in the last 10 years. Before that, they had spent four of the previous five seasons down in the Segunda Division. They hadn’t finished higher than 16th in the Primera Division since 2011/12. Their first match of the new season was a goalless draw with recently promoted Espanyol. Goal scoring was a bit of a problem for this team last season as they finished with only 37, or 18 fewer than Celta de Vigo. Celta de Vigo’s eighth place finish last season was their highest in awhile. While this may appear to be a battle of evenly matched, middle of the table sides, I think the visitors have a distinct advantage. They had solid away form last year (ninth most points in La Liga) and come in looking for their first win at Osasuna since 2014. Osasuna was not a particularly strong home side last season, dropping points in 12 of 19 matches. The visitors have more quality up front. 8* Celta de Vigo |
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08-23-21 | Leicester v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Leicester City/West Ham (3:00 ET): The second matchweek of the Premier League season ends Monday in London Stadium as West Ham United hosts Leicester City. The visitors were 1-0 winners last week over the Wolves. Jamie Vardy got the lone goal at King Power Stadium. Now the Foxes hit the road for the 1st time, looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Hammers from last season. West Ham were also winners in the opening week as they came from behind to defeat Newcastle United 4-2. The goal for Leicester this season is obviously to finish top four and gain entrance to the Champions League. That is something that has eluded them each of the last two years, both times due to late season swoons. In addition to beating the Wolves last week, Leicester also recently defeated Man City 1-0 (on a late penalty kick) to win the Community Shield. Going back to a couple of friendlies over the summer, the Foxes have conceded only one time in their last four matches. But West Ham scored three goals in each of its two wins over Leicester last season. The second nearly saw the Foxes pull off a comeback for the ages as they made it 3-2 after falling behind 3-0. The Hammers also couldn’t be denied last week against Newcastle United. Four different players got on the scoresheet for that one. Leicester was tied for the third most goals scored in the Premier League last season. West Ham was sixth. Expect to see plenty of scoring on Monday. 8* Over Leicester City/West Ham |
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08-23-21 | Spezia Calcio v. Cagliari +100 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* Cagliari (12:30 ET): While both of these sides finished near the bottom of the table last season, it was clearly Cagliari that finished with more momentum. Most of the credit goes to a managerial change. After Leonardo Semplici took over as the new boss, Cagliari suffered only five defeats in its final 15 matches. That may not sound all that impressive, but remember they’d gone on a 16-match winless streak before hiring Semplici. After finishing 16th and only four points clear of the relegation zone last year, Cagliari clearly expects to move closer to the middle of the table in 2021/22. Spezia had never played at this level of football before last season, so a 15th place finish (two points ahead of Cagliari) was satisfactory. But make no mistake about it, this second season in Serie A will see Spezia likely fighting off relegation. They lost manager Vincenzo Italiano to Fiorentina and his replacement (Thiago Motta) is relatively inexperienced with only a failed stint at Genoa on his resume. With several players’ loan contracts having expired and some veterans being let go, the roster is pretty thin. Cagliari will be plenty motivated Monday as they were unable to defeat Spezia last season. It was a 2-2 draw at home and 2-1 away loss. But there’s no doubt that this is a better team now. Further adding to the motivation is the fact Cagliari hasn’t won their opener since 2013. With four straight finishes at 14th or lower, they are going to be desperate for a win here. Look for them to get the full three points. 10* Cagliari |
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08-22-21 | Fiorentina v. Roma -126 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): With Jose Mourinho now guiding the ship, Roma starts its Serie A season by hosting Fiorentina. The Giallorossi finished seventh in the table last season, forcing them to qualify for the Europa League this season. Qualifying is going well as they were 2-1 winners Thursday night, getting them closer to the group stage. Now they take on a domestic rival that they’ve beaten four straight times. Considering the embarrassing way they opened last season, Roma certainly is going to want to start Mourinho’s return to Serie A with a bang. I look for them to nab the full three points here. Fiorentina finished in the bottom half of the table in 2020/21, some 22 points behind Roma. There was a real gap between the top eight and the middle of the table LY in Serie A. Fiorentina actually faced the prospect of relegation for much of last season. They finished only seven points clear of the drop zone. It has been a bit of a wild offseason here with former manager Gennaro Gattuso taking the job and then departing before a single match was played. Mourinho has had success in Serie A before. His 2.18 points per match ratio rates second best in the league this century. It was the fact that Roma had three fewer wins than sixth place Lazio last year that kept them from automatically qualifying for the Europa League. They had the same number of losses (12) as Lazio mind you, but the six-point gap was a byproduct of Lazio winning instead of settling for draws. Roma was forced to take a 3-0 loss in LY’s season opener due to failing to register a player properly. Mourinho will have his club ready to go to start 2021/22. 10* AS Roma |
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08-21-21 | Lazio -130 v. Empoli | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
10* Lazio (2:45 ET): One week after the Premier League, Bundesliga and La Liga all got started, Serie A gets underway on Saturday. There was a definite gap between the top five and everyone else last season in the Italian top flight. Finishing sixth was Lazio. In addition to qualifying for this season’s Europa League, Lazio is coming off a run to the knockout stage of the Champions League. They will certainly be expected to finish near the top again in 2021/22. They have a new manager, but an experienced squad. It is now time to welcome Empoli to the top level of Italian football. Last season’s winners of Serie B also have a new manager, although that was not their call as former boss Alessio Dionsi bolted for Sassuolo. Expectations for the newly promoted squad aren’t all that high. They haven’t finished higher than 18th at this level since 2015-16 when they were in the midst of a three-year run in the top flight. They’ve spent three of the last four seasons in Serie B. It will be a challenge to avoid relegation this season. Empoli was undefeated at home last season in Serie B, but they are in for a rude awakening here. Lazio has beaten them in each of the last five head to head meetings. This is a team that’s finished top five in Serie A in four of the last six seasons. The capital city outfit displayed fine form in the preseasons as well. Nearly blowing all of a three-goal lead in the first round of the Coppa Italia was a bad sign for Empoli. Look for Lazio to continue its head to head mastery. 10* Lazio |