Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-23 | Hawks v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here. |
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03-10-23 | Duke -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met back in February in Miami we were all over the Canes and picked up an EASY win. Miami was a 3 point favorite in that game and rolled the Devils 81-59 in an embarrassing performance by Duke. It was a perfect spot to fade the Blue Devils as they had just beaten UNC at home 2 days earlier and had to go on the road and play another game just 48 hours later. Duke followed that up with a spirited performance in an OT loss @ UVA and have since won 7 in a row. This team is peaking right now and we’re not so sure about Miami. Over their last 5 games Duke is winning by an average score of 78-64 hitting 50% of their shots while holding their opponents to 38% shooting. Yesterday they absolutely obliterated a very solid Pitt team by the final score of 96-69! Because of that they were able to spread their minutes out with 15 guys logging minutes and 10 of those playing double digit minutes. Meanwhile Miami went to the wire with Wake before winning 74-72. That’s been a theme for the Hurricanes down the stretch as they’ve been fortunate to come out on top in a number of games. In their last 4 games they held on to beat Va Tech by 6, lost to Florida State (2nd lowest rated team in the ACC), beat Pitt by 2, and then topped WF by 2. The Miami defense has allowed 78 PPG and 48% shooting by their opponents over the last 5 games. This game is in Greensboro so it will be a HEAVY Duke crowd. Two teams heading in opposite directions here and one should be ultra motivated after getting destroyed in their most recent meeting. Lay the small number with Duke. |
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03-10-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - We were on OSU yesterday vs Iowa and we love the way the Buckeyes are playing right now. That being said, we feel this is where their run comes to an end. This is a really tough spot for OSU playing their 3rd straight day and 4th game in 7 days while MSU has been resting since Saturday. Speaking of last Saturday, Michigan State played host to the Buckeyes in their home finale and won 84-78. Sparty led that game by 9 at half and OSU got to within 3 for about 10 seconds in the 2nd half but never got closer than 5 beyond that. That was the 2nd meeting between these 2. In the first meeting @ Ohio State, the Spartans rolled to a 62-41 win. The Bucks have shot extremely well the first 2 games of this tournament hitting 52 of their 103 shot attempts for 50.5%. They’ve also made 42% of their 3 point attempts in those 2 games. We would expect facing a very solid and rested MSU defense (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) that tired legs will most likely bring those shooting percentages down quite a bit in this game. The Buckeyes have also benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents, especially from beyond the arc. In their opener Wisconsin made only 4 of 22 from 3 point land and yesterday Iowa was 4-17. That’s a combined 8 of 39 for only 20%. It’s not as if OSU has a fantastic 3 point defense as they rank 11th in the conference allowing almost 36%. Today they face the best 3 point shooting team in the Big 10 with MSU making 41.5% from deep in league play. With potential tired legs defensively, we expect the Spartans to have a number of open looks. This is also a Michigan State offense that is peaking down the stretch scoring 80 or more points in each of their last 4 games. This one might be close into the 2nd half but we look for MSU to pull away down the stretch as they take advantage of OSU’s fatigue. If Sparty needs to make FT’s to salt this one away, they are #1 in Big 10 play hitting 78.5% from the stripe. This is a small number to lay in this situation and we’ll take the Spartans. |
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03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers -9 | Top | 125-134 | Push | 0 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis. |
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03-09-23 | Arkansas -125 v. Auburn | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
NOTE: Line has moved since completing our write-up on this one so we are now going money line (-125) here with this play after Arkansas previously was a +1 in this one: #761 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +1 over Auburn, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Razors are undervalued entering this tourney having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Those results have made them an underdog in a game we feel they should be favored. Arky finished the SEC regular season with an 8-10 record yet KenPom has them rated as the 3rd best team in the league (19th in the country) behind only Alabama & Tennessee. Our power ratings are in line with that as well. This is one of the more talented teams in the SEC (3 potential NBA draft picks) and now they have new life as we start a new season and they make their run to try and solidify their spot Big Dance (currently projected as 9 or 10 seed). Their star freshman Nick Smith (#1 recruit in the country) missed 13 games from late December to early February and he is now back and healthy. He’s scored 24 points or more in 3 of his last 4 games. While we think Arkansas is undervalued, we have Auburn as an overvalued team right now. The Tigers are off a huge home win over Tennessee to close out the season, however the Vols were playing their first game without their starting PG who is now out for the year. Prior to that win, Auburn was 1-6 SU vs the 5 highest rated teams in the SEC per Ken Pom. That lone win was vs this Arkansas team way back in January when the Razorbacks were without Nick Smith. Arky dominated the boards in that game (+13) but shot poorly hitting only 12% of their 3’s in the loss. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and despite having a worse record, Arkansas is the much better shooting team (93rd nationally eFG% / Auburn is 235th) and while Auburn is very good defensively, the Razors have better efficiency numbers on that end of the court as well (16th nationally). Wrong team getting points here in our opinion and we’ll take the value with Arkansas. |
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03-09-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -3 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -3 over Rutgers, Thursday at 12 PM ET - A bubble showdown game here early on Thursday. Rutgers was all but in a month ago but the Knights have proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games with their only wins coming by 1 point vs Wisconsin and by 3 points vs PSU. Their offense has been non-existent scoring 60 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games and they are now officially the worst shooting team in the Big 10 (dead last in eFG%). Rutgers declined started when they lost key starter Mawot Mag (8 PPG & 5 RPG) who was one of the top defensive players. He is out for the season. This poor shooting team is facing a Michigan defense that has played very well down the stretch and the Wolverines now rank #1 in the Big 10 in eFG% defense. Offensively they are solid as well ranking 4th in the Big 10 in efficiency and they are 2nd in the league in scoring (conference games). Michigan enters this game of back to back tight OT losses on the road @ Illinois and @ Indiana. Prior to that they had won 6 of 8 and were very close to winning 8 of 10 had they been able to pull the upsets on the road vs top tier conference teams to close out the season. These 2 faced off @ Rutgers at the end of February and the Wolverines dominated in a 13 point win. They did so with one of their top players, Jett Howard, on the bench with an injury and he is now back and healthy. Michigan held Rutgers to just 45 points in that game on 0.74 PPP. They also had an advantage on the boards and fewer turnovers. Both of these teams need a win desperately to remain in consideration for the NCAA tourney and Michigan was the much better team over the last month or so. If they can win @ Rutgers, a very tough place to play, and win handily without one of the top scorers, they should do the same here. Lay the small number with the Wolverines. |
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03-08-23 | Raptors v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight! |
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03-08-23 | Stanford v. Utah | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah pick-em over Stanford, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like the Utes quite a bit heading into the Pac 12 tourney. We think they are undervalued after losing their last 5 games of the season. The fact is they haven’t been healthy down the stretch but they are at full strength for this game. Starting guards Madsen and Worster have missed a number of games down the stretch which has really affected this team. Madsen missed 7 in a row before returning for the season finale @ Colorado while Worster missed 2 straight vs UCLA & USC before coming back in that same game. The Utes lost that game running into a buzzsaw in Boulder which was Colorado’s home finale. Those 2 players combined for 24 points in their 69-60 loss @ CU to close out the season but the team shot poorly at just 33%. With 1 game at full strength under their belts, we look for a solid performance on Wednesday. Utah has a great defense. They rank 33rd nationally in defensive efficiency, 7th in eFG% defense, 17th in 3 point FG% defense, and 11th in 2 point FG% defense. Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense & 3 point FG% defense along with ranking 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. Offensively the Cardinal really rely in making 3 pointers offensive with 36% of their points coming from deep (2nd in conference play). We mentioned how good Utah’s 3 point defense is so that’s going to be a problem for Stanford. These 2 met once this year and Utah was at full strength and dominated that game which was @ Stanford. These 2 split their meeting this year with each winning on the opponent’s home court. Here the difference. In the first meeting @ Stanford, the Utes were at full strength and dominated for much of the game despite the 71-66 final score. Utah led by 16 with 8 minutes to go in the game. When the played in Utah, the Utes were without Madsen and lost a tight game despite shooting just 39% while the Cardinal lit it up at 53% from the field and 56% from 3 point land. Utah is the better team and they just need to win this one based on the spread. We’ll take it. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 131.5 | Top | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#679/680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points – Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect a slow paced, defensive battle as most Big 10 match ups tend to be. Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging only 65 possessions per game (347th). OSU averages just 68 possessions per game which is 259th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is very solid allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (26th nationally) and while OSU’s isn’t quite as good (125th nationally) they should be able to limit a Badger offense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has scored 65 points or fewer in 16 of their 20 Big 10 games this season and we don’t expect them to be great on offense tonight. The Badger rely very heavily on the 3 point shot and they’re not great at it ranking 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%. They don’t shoot well at the rim or inside the arc period ranking 328th hitting only 46% of their shots. OSU, on the other hand, doesn’t shoot many 3’s (26% of their points coming from deep – 12th in the Big 10) and their top inside scoring, Zed Key is injured so that will affect their inside game. Finally we don’t expect many trips to the FT line in this game as both rank inside the top 80 nationally in not fouling while both offenses rank outside the top 300 in % of points from the FT line. In their only meeting this season these 2 totaled 125 points and we see s similar outcome here. Let’s not forget that his is at the United Center in Chicago which is a large NBA venue that can be tough on shooters. Under is the play. |
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03-07-23 | Nets -6 v. Rockets | Top | 118-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here. |
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03-07-23 | Hornets +10 v. Knicks | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog! |
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03-07-23 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -130) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Pittsburgh is in a great spot here which is why they are a -300 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the -130 range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Penguins in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Elvis Merzlikins for the Blue Jackets and Tristan Jarry for the Penguins. Merzlikins is having a horrific season and Columbus has lost 19 of his 26 starts and he has a 4.15 GAA which is ridiculously high. Jarry has a solid 2.77 GAA and has a 19-7-5 record overall. The Blue Jackets have lost 22 of 29 road games this season while the Penguins are on home ice where they have been rock solid this season. We love the fact that Pittsburgh is off a 4-1 road loss but now back home and the road loss had followed a 4-game winning streak. Also, the Penguins have won 6 straight over the Blue Jackets by a combined score of 28 to 12. That works out to an average score of 5 to 2 and there is certainly nothing average about that! The fact is the Blue Jackets struggle consistently when facing these Penguins and now Columbus enters this match-up slumping as well. The Blue Jackets have lost 10 of 15 games. The Penguins have averaged scoring nearly 5 goals per game in last 6 wins on home ice and Columbus just will not be able to keep up here. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Pittsburgh is the value play here. |
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03-07-23 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON Notre Dame +7.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Irish had a rough season to say the least with a 3-17 Big East record. However, there have been signs of life down the stretch and they start a new season tonight. ND upset Pitt one week ago today in their home finale and then fell flat on Saturday @ Clemson. That was somewhat understandable as their game @ Clemson was pretty much meaningless as the Irish were already locked into the 14 seed while the Tigers were still fighting for a double bye. It’s one of the few games this year that Notre Dame was blown out. Despite their 17 losses, they were in most of their games and could have a much better record. 11 of their 17 conference losses came by 8 points or fewer and 5 of those were 1 possession games (lost by 3 or less). 5 of their last 7 losses down the stretch were close including losing to this Va Tech team by 6 points on February 11th. The FT disparity in that game was the difference with the Hokies making 20 FT’s to just 6 for the Irish. That was an aberration in our opinion as neither of these teams gets to the FT line all that often (ranked outside the top 330 in % of points from the charity stripe) and neither fouls very much (both in the top 50 nationally in % of points allowed from the FT line). Other than that key stat, there wasn’t anything else that stood out as a big advantage in that game for either team as most were fairly even. VT was far from stellar in the weak ACC this year finishing with a record of 8-12 in league play. They enter this tournament on a modest 2 game winning streak over FSU & Louisville, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. We’ll keep an eye on ND freshman guard JJ Starling, one of the top freshmen in the conference, as he’s missed a few games with a knee bruise. If he plays it’s a bonus as we like Notre Dame at this number whether he’s in or out. Take the points. |
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03-06-23 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State UNDER 142 | Top | 89-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#875/876 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 142 Points – North Dakota State vs South Dakota State, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - This will be the third time these 2 have faced each other this year and the first 2 meetings had drastically different results in regards to the total. The first meeting NDSU won 65-59 for 124 total points scored. The 2nd meeting SDSU won 90-85 for 175 total points scored so the difference between the 2 meetings was a whopping 51 points. The interesting part here was the 2nd meeting in which they scored 175 points was just a month ago and despite that high scoring affair, this total opened 143 and has dropped to 141. We agree with the move. The first meeting was much closer to the norm for these 2 teams. Only 124 total points scored yet both averaged over 1.00 PPP in that game. South Dakota State averaged 1.01 PPP and they average 1.05 so not a drastic difference. North Dakota State actually eclipsed their average despite the low scoring game averaging 1.10 PPP in the win and their season average is 1.04. In the 2nd meeting that totaled 175 points both were WAY over their season averages on the offensive end. SDSU averaged a whopping 1.38 PPP in that game while NDSU put up 1.31 PPP. The combined to shoot almost 57% from the field (both average 45%) and they made 46% of their 3’s (they average 33% and 34% on the season). Both of these defenses drastically underperformed in that game as they rank 2nd and 3rd in the Summit in defensive efficiency. You can bet after their most recent meeting both coaches have stressed defense heading into this game. Both teams are poor offensive rebounding teams (ranked outside the top 300) and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t see many 2nd chances in that regard. We also anticipate minimal FT attempts in this game as neither foul much and offensive neither get to the line very often (outside the top 200 in % of points scored at the FT line). Both defenses showed up in their opening game of this conference tourney allowed 68 (NDSU) and 55 (SDSU) points with both of their games staying Under the total by a combined 30 points. Neither averages 70 PPG away from home this year and we think this game stays in the 130’s. Take the Under. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals. |
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03-06-23 | Hawks +3 v. Heat | Top | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation. |
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03-05-23 | Maryland v. Penn State -3.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We faded Maryland on the road earlier this week @ Ohio State and picked up a win and we’ll do it again today. The Terps stink on the road. No 2 ways around it. They have a grand total of 2 road wins this year and those came @ Minnesota, by far the worst team in the Big 10, and @ Louisville, by far the worst team in the ACC. Those 2 teams have combined record this year of 12-46! As expected based on their road record, the Terps key numbers drop off a cliff when they travel. At home their offense averages 1.15 points per possession and on the road they put up only 0.97 PPP. They average only 62 PPG on the road this season and if we throw out their game @ Minnesota, who has the worst defense in the Big 10, Maryland has been held under 60 points in 5 of their 7 conference roadies. PSU is playing their home finale and in must win mode. They are currently sitting just outside the NCAA field according to most analysts and can’t afford a home setback today. PSU has some momentum coming off an impressive road win @ Northwestern earlier this week. They also should have some extra incentive in this home finale as they lost their most recent home game, 59-56, vs Rutgers and the Nittany Lions blew a 19 point 2nd half lead in that one. Their offense has been exceptional this season at home averaging 78 PPG on 1.15 PPG and hitting over 40% of their 3’s. In their meeting a few weeks ago in Maryland, the Terps came away with a 74-68 win and in that game they made 18 FT’s to just 2 for PSU and it was still a tight game. This is just a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-04-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Yeah, we know…how can you bet against the Bucks who have won 16 straight games? Philly has a lineup that can compete with Milwaukee and Joel Embiid will put forth extra effort in a marquee matchup with Giannis. The Sixers are coming off a loss in Dallas and they’ve been good in this situation with a 6-2 record in their last eight games when coming off a loss. Overall, the 76ers are 12-9 ATS when off a loss and they have an average +/- in those games of +5.5PPG. Philly is 14-14 ATS on the road this season, but they do own a positive differential at +1.9PPG. Granted the Bucks are 27-5 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.4PPG, but the underdog has covered and won outright in 3 of the last four meetings. Grab the points with the Sixers. |
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03-04-23 | Connecticut v. Villanova +2.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova +2.5 over UConn, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nova is flying under the radar right now but they are playing as well as anyone in the Big East. The Cats have won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve pushed their Big East record to 10-9 after starting just 4-8. Their top player, Justin Moore, missed the first 20 games of the season and since he’s come back and gotten acclimated to his teammates, they’ve played very good basketball. When Nova faced UConn earlier this season, Moore was not yet in the lineup and they hung tight losing by 8 on the road. In that game the Huskies were +6 at the FT line and +15 from beyond the arc yet even with those big advantages it was just a 2 point game with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. UConn is very talented but they’ve been up & down this year. They are entering this one on a 4 game winning streak but they’ve only been a .500 team on the road. The Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 on the road, however those 3 wins came vs St Johns, DePaul, and Georgetown, the 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. The one solid team they played on the road during that stretch was Creighton and they lost that game. Prior to winning 3 of 4 on the road, Connecticut had lost 4 in a row away from home and they average 10 PPG fewer on the road this season. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in Big East play yet they have 7 conference losses. This game is expected to be close based on the spread so free throws could be key. We look for the host Wildcats to have a solid advantage at the stripe as they get their often with 20% of their points coming from freebies (78th nationally). UConn fouls more than any team in the conference with their opponents scoring 24% of their points from the stripe. On top of that, Villanova makes 83% of their FT’s as a team this season. We like the Wildcats to win their home finale and getting points is a bonus. |
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03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M -1.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -1.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Crimson Tide have been trending down as of late. Lots of obvious distractions going on right now and last 3 games Bama has looked shaky at best and 2 of those games were at home Over their last 3 games they nearly lost @ South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. Bama won that game by 2 points in OT and despite making 10 more FT’s than the Gamecocks, it was tight throughout. Following that performance the Tide were forced to come from down double digits at home vs Arkansas in a 3 point win. Most recently, on Wednesday hosting Auburn, Bama trailed for most of game and came back from 17 down with under 10 minutes remaining and won in OT. How important is this game to Bama? They already clinched SEC title with their win over arch rival Auburn earlier this week. This is pretty much a meaningless game as they close out the regular season. A&M has been playing outstanding basketball winning 7 of last 8 and they are a PERFECT 8-0 at home in SEC play. While they are locked into 2nd place, the Aggies will bring the heat here in their final home game of the season and facing off against the #1 team in the SEC. At home A&M has a PPG margin of +13 and their defense is allowing just 60 PPG. Bama, on the other hand, has seen a big dip in their road splits vs home splits. They average 12 PPG less on the road and efficiency drops way off on road from 1.18 PPP at home to 0.99 on the road. We like the Aggies to win this game at home. |
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03-03-23 | New Mexico -2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Friday at 11 PM ET - When healthy, the Lobos are as talented as any team in the Mountain West despite their 8-9 league record. Their star point guard Jaelen House missed back to back games earlier this month and since his return New Mexico is 2-2. However, taking a closer look at those games reveals they’ve played very well over their last 4. The 2 wins were both by double digits vs San Jose State & Fresno State. The 2 losses were vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference and New Mexico was in solid position to win both. They led by 13 @ Boise last week and shot only 37% from the field yet still had a shot at the win. The Lobos then faced #1 seed San Diego State over the weekend and again led by 13 in the 2nd half and the Aztecs led for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 2nd half but hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 2. The New Mexico offense is a terrible match up for this CSU defense. In the first meeting which was a NM blowout win, the Lobos scored 88 points on 1.28 PPP. The Rams rank dead last in the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing 1.12 PPG and 10th in eFG% allowed. They also have one of the worst 3 point defenses in the country (ranked 306th) while New Mexico is the best 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% of their triples in league play. The Lobos have averaged 85 PPG since House returned and they should have their way offensively tonight. It’s CSU’s final home game but they’ve been less than spectacular with a terrible 2-6 record at home in conference play. The Rams only 2 home wins in conference play were vs Wyoming and Fresno who have a combined MWC record of 10-25. CSU will be seeded anywhere from 7 to 11 for the upcoming conference tourney which means they’ll play on the first day no matter what. This game is huge for NM as a win sets them up to possibly get the 5 seed and avoid the play in round. We’ll take the much better team in a near pick-em game tonight. |
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03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points per game. This game is NOT going to be ‘average’ according to our Math Model. The 3-point line will have a huge impact on this game. The Celtics attempt the 2nd most 3-pointers in the league at 41.9 per game. They also make 37.9% of those attempts which is 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn has a very tough time defending the 3-point line as they allow opponents to make 37.6% of their attempts which is 29th or second to last in the NBA. Boston is coming off a game against the Cavs who own the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and that game finished with 230 total points with Boston scoring 117. Now they face a Nets team that is 20th in DEFF allowing 1.149PPP. The Nets have also struggled on the defensive end of the court recently, allowing an average of 125PPG over their last five games. We will need the Nets to score in this game too and they should. Brooklyn owns the 12th best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.152-points per possession. The Nets are also playing faster with their recent roster change as they average 100.8 possessions per game in their last five games which is up from their season average of 98.6. These two teams met on Feb 1st and Boston came away with a 139-96 win. The Over has cashed in 6 of the last seven meetings in Beantown. We predict an easy Over in this one. |
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03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are two different teams when they have PG LaMello Ball in the lineup and when they don’t. Ball like to push tempo and play in the open court so possessions naturally go up. Charlotte is the 7th fastest paced team on the season overall but without Ball expect a more deliberate attack moving forward. While we are on the subject of pace, the Magic are the 17th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.8 possessions per game. These two teams are both bottom 6 in the league when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Magic averaging 1.115-points per possession (25th) and Charlotte averaging 1.011PPP which is 29th. Both teams struggle to score with poor shooting at 20th or worse in the league in FG% and 3PT%. Both teams have seen their scoring numbers dip in their last five games compared to their season averages. These teams met in early February and produced 232 total points, but the Hornets had both Ball and Washington in the lineup, who are out tonight. That game didn’t have a ton of possessions at 174 which is around league average. In the other two meetings this season they produced total points of 217 and 206. With both teams limited offensively we expect a low total in this outcome. |
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03-03-23 | Akron v. Kent State -4 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent State -4 over Akron, Friday at 7 PM ET - Revenge is in place for the 2nd place team in the MAC (Kent) in their home finale. A win here and a Toledo loss @ Ball State and the Golden Flashes can finish in a tie for 1st place. A win here and the worst they finish is in 2nd place. Kent traveled to Akron 1 month ago as a 1 point road favorite and lost the game 67-55. Now we’re only laying -5 (opening number) at home which is a nice value based on the spread when they met in early February. The Flashes, who average 1.11 PPP in MAC play this year, put up just 0.89 PPP in that loss which was by far their worst offensive performance of the MAC season. In fact, Kent has put up at least 1.00 PPP in every other conference game but 1 this season. In the loss, Akron made 20 FT’s while Kent made only 7 which turned out to be the difference in the game. Since that loss, they have won 6 of 7 games and their home court advantage has been terrific with a perfect 14-0 record this year. They average 83.6 PPG at home which is nearly 30 more than they scored @ Akron last month. They also shoot 48% at home while putting up 1.13 PPP we expect a much better offensive performance tonight. This is their home finale (and season finale) and with revenge along with celebrating 4 key seniors, we expect Kent to bring their best on Friday night. Since beating Kent, the Zips are 4-3 and struggled to beat Ball State in their home finale. The Cardinals led by double digits midway through the 2nd half and Akron battled back for the win. They have a .500 record on the road, but score only 68 PPG and average less than 1.00 PPP away from home (0.97 PPP). Facing a motivated Kent defense that ranks #1 in the MAC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and turnovers created will be tough for the Zips. Kent is the better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it with the Golden Flashes at home in their finale. |
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03-02-23 | Washington State v. Washington +1.5 | Top | 93-84 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
#770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Wazzou is off back to back road wins @ Stanford and @ Cal and now playing their 3rd straight away from home. Despite their 2 road wins over the last week, the Cougars have been terrible on the road this season. They have a record of 3-8 in true road games and they are averaging only 62 PPG this season away from home while making only 38% of their shots. Washington State’s offensive efficiency drops from 1.08 PPP at home to 0.97 PPP on the road. We’re also catching them as an overvalued road favorite because they’ve won 5 straight games. The fact is 4 of those 5 wins have come against the 4 lowest rated teams in the Pac 12. We’re getting the Huskies as a dog in their home finale and they are playing better winning 3 of 4. At home they are 12-5 on the season and their 3 home losses in conference play have come vs UCLA, Arizona, and USC, the 3 top teams in the Pac 12. The Huskies are set to close out their regular season with a revenge win over their arch rival. In their meeting earlier this season, Wazzou held on to win a tight game 56-51. In that game the Cougars outscored Washington by 12 points from beyond the arc and by 5 points from the FT line yet it was a down to the wire game. WSU relies very heavily on shooting well from 3 as almost 40% of their points come from deep. Problem for them here is, Washington is very good at defending the arc allowing 29% on the season which is good for 14th nationally. On top of that Wazzou only hits 32% of their triples on the road this season. Thus we do not expect the Cougs to have another big advantage from deep which will hurt them in this game. As expected, the dog in this huge rivalry has covered 8 in and 20 of the last 27. We like Washington to win this one outright. |
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03-02-23 | Pacers -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs had lost 16 straight games prior to a win in Utah in their last game out. We expect them to return to their losing ways again tonight versus a surging Pacers team vying for a Playoff spot. Not only did San Antonio go on a straight up losing streak they also have just 3 covers in their last seventeen games. Indiana has won 3 of four including an impressive win over the Mavericks last time out as a +8.5 point underdog. The Spurs are bad on both ends of the court ranking last in defensive efficiency, last in points allowed per game, last in overall FG% defense and 3PT% D. It’s not much better for them on the offensive end of the court where they rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th or worse in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% defense. The Pacers should take advantage of the Spurs defense with their 11th ranked 3PT shooting offense that hit’s 36.4% of their attempts. San Antonio has failed to cover in 4 straight home games and the Pacers are on a 4-0 spread streak on the road against sub .400 teams. The Pacers have also covered 4 straight in San Antonio. |
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03-02-23 | Appalachian State v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Early start here in the Sun Belt Conference tourney. We really like this South Alabama team and think they can make a run in this tournament. After starting the Sun Belt season with a 2-7 record, they Jags hit their stride winning 7 of their last 9 games in conference play. They are much better than their 9-9 Sun Belt record. The Jaguars PPP differential (conference play) is the 3rd best in the league behind only Marshall and Louisiana who finished with overall records of 24-7 and 23-7 respectively. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is very balanced. Defensively they rank 1st in PPG allowed and eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency. Offensively they rank #1 in the Sun Belt in eFG% and turn the ball over only 15% of the time, the least in the conference. They were 3rd in the conference in PPG margin (+5.6) while App State was 8th at (+0.0 PPG) despite each finishing with a 9-9 record. The Mountaineers are not a great shooting team (258th nationally in eFG%) and they only average 65 PPG in conference play. If this one comes down to FT’s App State is not in a good spot ranking dead last in the Sun Belt making just 65% from the line. In their lone meeting this year, South Alabama won by 17 points despite taking 12 fewer shot attempts. The FT attempts were nearly dead even (11 to 10) so it wasn’t as if USA had a huge edge from the line to make up for the fewer shot attempts. They dominated more than the final score might indicate. This game is being played in a neutral site in Pensacola, FL which is only 55 miles from Mobile, AL, home of South Alabama. We like the Jaguars to make run in this tourney and it starts on Thursday morning. Lay it. |
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03-01-23 | Texas v. TCU -2 | Top | 73-75 | Push | 0 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
#704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU -2 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We love this TCU team and when healthy we feel they are one of the best teams in the country. They are undervalued with just an 8-8 Big 12 record, however half of those losses (4) came when their top player Mike Miles was out with an injury. They also lost to Mississippi State when Miles was initially injured just 4 minutes into the game. Thus, the Frogs were just 1-5 when Miles was out from early to mid February. They’ve also played a number of games without starters Peavy & Lampkin as well. Peavy is back and playing while Lampkin has been in and out of the lineup. This team is as close to 100% as they have been in quite a while. We faded Texas on Saturday @ Baylor and picked up a win. The Horns have a very solid 22-7 record, but on the road they simply are an average team. They have a losing record in their road games and have been outscored on road this season. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with their only win during that stretch coming by 3 points @ Kansas State in a game they trailed by 14 points. At home the Horns average 85 PPG on 50% shooting. On the road they average 69 PPG on 43% shooting. At home TCU averages 78 PPG while allowing just 62 PPG. Their only conference home loss when they were at full strength was a 5 point setback vs Kansas, a game in which they made only 20 of their 66 shot attempts (30%). KU had some revenge on their minds in that game after TCU beat them by 23 points in Lawrence. The first meeting between these 2 teams went to the wire in Austin with Texas coming out on top 79-75. The Horned Frogs blew a 13 point halftime lead in that game and Texas took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Despite the conference records, Texas 11-5 & TCU 8-8, these 2 teams have very similar PPP margins in league play. TCU is underrated and we’ll take them at home. |
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03-01-23 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 222 | Top | 118-142 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 222 Brooklyn Nets @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - The Knicks are turning up the heat on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed 110 or less in 7 of their last nine games. In three of those games, they allowed 98 or less points. For the season they own the 13th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.140-points per possession. In their last five games they are giving up 1.057PPP which is 2nd in the league. The other big factor here is pace. The Knicks are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.7 possessions per game. Brooklyn prefers a slower tempo too ranking 11th in pace, and they are coming off a game last night so they shouldn’t be anxious to turn this game into a track meet. The Nets obviously had a big change in their lineup with the trades of KD and Kyrie and chemistry is an issue for them on the offensive end of the court. The Nets are averaging just 106.8PPG in their last five games which is down from their season average of 113.8PPG. These two teams recently met in mid-February and produced 230 total points but the possessions were lower than league average with just 160 FG attempts. The Under has cashed 22 of the last 30 meetings in the Garden and we predict another low scoring game here. |
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02-28-23 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - First off, we'll be clear here that regardless of the goalies that get the start here we like the over in this match-up based on the situation and the recent team trending. However, the expected starting goalie match-up certainly is attractive for an over. It is expected to be Alex Stalock for the Blackhawks and Karel Vejmelka for the Coyotes. Chicago is in the second game of a B2B as they lost 4-2 at Anaheim last night and Petr Mrazek got the start in that one. He is the Blackhawks #1 goalie and so it is unlikely we see him here. Stalock is slated to get the start and he is coming back from a long injury layoff. He has been out since mid-January and did allow at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 appearances. He could be rusty here and the Chicago defense has not exactly been solid of late. The Blackhawks have allowed 3.6 goals per game last dozen games. Speaking of sub-par defense, the Coyotes have allowed at least 5 goals in 3 of last 4 games! That has included outings from goalie Connor Ingram but Vejmelka has particularly struggled with allowing 5 or more goals in 3 of last 4 appearances. Overall, these clubs both have been trending to higher-scoring games and the value of this total being a 6 is huge as well. The Coyotes have played 8 games since February 10th and 6 of the 8 have totaled at least 6 goals. Chicago has played 7 games the past two weeks and 6 have totaled 6 or more goals. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here.
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02-28-23 | San Diego State v. Boise State -115 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State pick-em over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for the host Broncos. They are coming off an OT road loss on Saturday @ San Jose State, a game the Broncos led by 12 with 8:00 remaining in the game. It was an understandable let down spot after Boise topped New Mexico at home last week in a big revenge game. Now they are back for their home finale facing the 1st place team in the MWC, San Diego State. We’re getting some line value here because the Aztecs are 14-2 in conference play and Boise is 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 games. We’re now getting the Broncos where all they have to do is win at home which is now a go for us. The Aztecs have been playing with fire, so to speak, on the road as of late. SDSU is coming off a road win @ New Mexico making a 3 pointer as time expired to win 73-71. It was a game that the Lobos led by 10 at half while SDSU’s largest lead of the game was just 6. Their last 3 road games the Aztecs won by 2 v@ New Mexico, won by 2 @ Fresno (made FT’s with 6 seconds left to win) and won by 2 @ Utah State (USU missed shot with 4 seconds left to win the game). They also struggled to beat CSU in OT and Wyoming by 5 on the road. Those 2 teams are 5-11 and 3-13 respectively in conference play. Now the face a Boise team that is better than all of the teams listed above and it’s the Aztecs 2nd of back to back road games. The Broncos are nearly unbeatable at home in conference play BSU has been nearly unbeatable at home in Mountain West play winning 33 of their last 36 including a perfect 8-0 this season with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. This is a huge revenge spot for BSU on Senior Night in their home finale (4 seniors in their top 7). San Diego State gave the Broncos their worst loss of the season a few weeks ago 72-52 when the Aztecs shot over 50% from the field while BSU made only 2 of 18 three pointers. This is a huge game for Boise at home while SDSU locked up the conference title over the weekend by topping New Mexico. The worst they can do is tie for the title but would have to lose both of their final 2 games including at home vs last place Wyoming this weekend. Bigger game for the Broncos who are fighting for 2nd place as they are tied with Nevada. We’ll take the Broncos to win at home. |
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02-28-23 | Bulls +5 v. Raptors | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams are both in the playoff mix with the Bulls looking up at the Raptors in the standings. After losing 6 straight games going into the All-Star break the Bulls have won 2 straight over the Nets and Wizards. Toronto had won 7 of eight games prior to a loss last time out in Cleveland. In that winning stretch though, the Raptors really had just one quality win over the Memphis Grizzlies as none of the other “W’s” came against a team with a winning record. The Bulls defense is solid and will be better with the addition of Patrick Beverly who was recently added to the roster. Chicago allows the 10th fewest points in the league, own the 9th best FG% defense and 10th best 3PT% D. Toronto will struggle to score here with an offense that ranks 27th in team FG% and 3PT%. Offensively the Bulls own the 6th best shooting percentage in the league and rank 16th in 3PT%. The Raptors are 27th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. Chicago has an average Margin of Victory on the road at -2.9PPG. Toronto has a +/- of +2.5PPG at home. Both of those averages clearly favor Chicago in this matchup. In what shapes up to be a lower scoring game we will gladly grab the points with the Bulls. |
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02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over West Virginia, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re definitely catching a buy low spot on ISU in this game. They are coming off their worst home performance of the season losing 61-50 as a 7.5 point favorite vs Oklahoma. The Cyclones jumped out to an 11 point first half lead and they were up by 5 at halftime when their offense went in the tank. They shot just 27% in the 2nd half while OU hit over 56% of their shots after the break. Even with that loss ISU is still a very good 13-2 at home this season and they’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Baylor, KSU, and Texas here this season. Head coach TJ Otzelberger was not happy after the performance and mentioned his team needs more “personal pride”. We expect a great effort on Monday night. The Cyclones are catching WVU in a vulnerable spot. The Mountaineers played @ Kansas on Saturday and took the Jayhawks to the wire losing by 2 points. That was a physically and emotionally draining game and now they must play on the road, in one of the toughest spots to play in the Big 12, just 48 hours later. Despite playing KU tough on Saturday, West Virginia is just 2-8 on the road this season and they’ve now lost 7 straight away from home. They are the worst shooting team in the Big 12 (conference games) ranking dead last in eFG%. Tonight they are facing the top defensive efficiency team in the conference and one of the best in the country as ISU allows just 0.91 PPP (8th nationally). We expect WVU to struggle offensively in this game. While Iowa State’s offense played poorly on Saturday, they did get a key piece back in the line up with Caleb Grill (10 PPG, 37% from 3 point range) returning from an injury. When these 2 met @ WVU earlier this month, the Cyclones gave the Mountaineers all they could handle losing by 5 points in a game they led with just over 1:00 minute remaining. We like Iowa State to get back on track and grab a win & cover in their final home game of the season. They start 4 seniors so this will be an emotional night in Ames. Lay the small number. |
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02-27-23 | Heat v. 76ers -6 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 vs Miami Heat, 7:10 PM ET - Something is going on in Miami that can’t be figured out right now as this team just isn’t competitive. The Heat have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last ten overall. On the season they have struggled on the road with a 13-19 SU record with an average +/- of -2.3PPG. Miami is just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six away from home with the lone win coming in OT against the Magic. This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams after the Heat eliminated the 76ers from the Playoffs a year ago. Philly is 5-1 SU and ATS their last six games but are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Celtics had a great shooting night which is surprising considering the Sixers own the 13th best FG% defense and 3rd best 3-point percentage D. Philly is 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this season and 24-9 SU overall at home. They win their home games by an average of +5.7PPG. and own a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating on their own court. Whatever has happened behind the scenes with Miami is a mystery right now but we don’t see things changing in this scenario. Lay the points. |
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02-26-23 | Nets +6 v. Hawks | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks, 3:10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off very different results as the Nets were just destroyed in Chicago by the Bulls 87-131, while the Hawks beat Cleveland at home 136-119. So off those results why would we back the Nets? Let’s not forget these guys are professionals and some of the most competitive players on the planet. That humiliating loss should have them focused and motivated here. Meanwhile the Hawks could be a little “fat” coming off that blowout win which has support from their 11-18 ATS mark when coming off a win this season. The Hawks are 16-12 SU at home this season with an average +/- of plus +1.8PPG. As a home favorite this season the Hawks are 10-13 ATS. Brooklyn is solid as a Dog this season with a 14-10 ATS record overall. They are 13-11 ATS when coming off a loss overall, 5-1 their last six. The Nets have an overall winning record on the road this season at 16-14 with an average +/- of -2.4PPG. The Hawks rank 21st in opponents FG% allowed and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA. This Nets roster still has plenty of talented players and they’ll keep this game close throughout. |
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02-26-23 | Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
#803/804 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams facing off here and both are slow paced so we do not expect many possessions in this game. Maryland is 325th nationally in possessions per game and Northwestern is 294th. Both defensive units rank in the top 30 in efficiency and PPG allowed. The Cats have allowed 65 points or fewer in 11 of their 17 Big 10 games this season. They’ve held their last 6 opponents to 66 points or less. In 4 of their last 5 games NW faced teams ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency (Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana) and they held each of those teams to 63 points or less. Maryland is coming off a poor defensive performance vs a bad Minnesota team allowing 70 points on 1.11 PPP. You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court today. Prior to that, in their previous 9 games the Terps did not allow a team to top 68 points and held 7 of those 9 opponents to less than 60 points. They should be able to stifle a Northwestern offense that ranks outside the top 275 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. As shaky as the Cats are at shooting the 3, Maryland is worst ranking 317th making just 31% from deep. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc here which will help keep this game lower soring. NW has gone Under the total in 7 straight games and Maryland has gone Under the total 11 of their last 13 games after a SU win. These 2 have combined to play 56 games and 36 have gone Under the total. Big Ten grinder on Sunday. |
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02-25-23 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
#786 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -5 over St Mary’s, Saturday at 10 PM ET = The Zags have been waiting patiently for this WCC rematch. St Mary’s won the first meeting earlier this month at home in OT. It was a game that Gonzaga pretty much controlled throughout despite the loss. St Mary’s led for just over 1:00 minute in the first half and NEVER had a lead in the 2nd half. Thus the Zags led for 39 of the 40 minutes in regulation and lost when the Gaels sent the game to OT with the game tying basket with 8 seconds remaining in the game. Now the Zags get a shot at revenge at home where they have won 80 of their last 81 games! Not only that, Gonzaga sits one game behind St Mary’s for the WCC title and this is their season and home finale. A win would push them into a tie for 1st place in the conference on Senior Night. On top of that, ESPN’s College Game Day will be there on Saturday and the atmosphere will be beyond electric. Experts have been banging on the Bulldogs for not being at the same elite level they have been in recent years. While they might be down a bit from previous seasons, they are still outstanding. Four of their five losses have come vs Purdue, St Marys, Baylor, and Texas, all top 15 teams per KenPom. Their other loss was at home vs a solid Loyola Marymount team and when they had a shot at their revenge on the road, they beat LMU 108-65 just over 1 week ago. The Gaels also have 5 losses, however 4 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 including 2 ranked outside the top 100. On the road in WCC play St Mary’s lost at Loyola Marymount and had a number of close calls winning by 1 @ BYU, by 3 @ San Diego, and by 3 @ Santa Clara. Tonight they are stepping into a hornet’s nest at the McCarthey Athletic Center where Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 93 PPG this season with an average winning margin of +24 PPG. They are more than comfortable at home offensively where they make 55% of their shots and they are the most efficient offense overall in the nation this year averaging 1.22 PPP. Since the 1995/96 season, these 2 rivals have met 27 times in Spokane and Gonzaga has won 24 of those games. 9 of the last 10 home wins for Gonzaga vs St Mary’s have come by double digits. The Gaels are very good this season but this is a bad spot for them and we like Gonzaga to cover at home. |
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02-25-23 | Pacers v. Magic UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 232.5 Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We love the betting indicators here with more money and tickets coming in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from the opening number. These teams are two of the least efficient offenses in the NBA with the Pacers averaging 1.137-points per possession (21st) and the Magic at 1.116PPP (25th). Orlando shoots just 47% as a team which is 18th in the NBA. In their last five games overall, the Magic are even shooting slightly worse at 45.9% while scoring just 107.8PPG. Indiana struggles with their shooting too as they hit just 46% from the field which ranks 25th. Indiana puts up 117.4PPG at home this season but on the road that number drops to 112PPG. Orlando is coming off two recent games against similar teams to the Pacers and those games produced 214 and 191 total points. Indiana is coming off a very high scoring game against the Celtics but Boston is one of the highest scoring and most efficient offenses in the NBA. In fact, the Pacers-Celtics O/U was 233.5 and the Magic don’t compare with Boston when it comes to offense. These two teams met in late January and put up 246 total points, but the pace of play was very slow, but they shot uncharacteristically very well from beyond the arc. Don’t expect that here and we like a low scoring UNDER! |
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02-25-23 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
#608 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa -5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The statistical comparison of Iowa’s home vs road games is quite dramatic. They have superb numbers at home and on the road, not so much. At home this season the Hawkeyes are averaging 89 PPG shooting 49% from the field and almost 39% from deep. On the road, they average just 67 PPG on 40% shooting while only making 26% of their shots from the arc. We’re catching Iowa off back to back double digit road losses @ Northwestern & @ Wisconsin so they are hungry for a win here. In those 2 games, the Hawks combined go shoot 6 of 52 (11%) from beyond the 3 point line! Most were uncontested looks that just didn’t go down. Now at home where they shoot very well, we look for those numbers to skyrocket. Michigan State is in a tough spot here in our opinion. They had a rivalry game last weekend @ Michigan and lost by 12 (we were on Michigan). Then on Tuesday, they came home for a very emotional game vs Indiana which was the first home game since the tragic campus shootings. We were on Sparty in that game and they won by 15 points and players and coach Izzo alike were very consumed by the emotion of that game. Now they go on the road facing a desperate Iowa team which will be tough. MSU is just 1-5 SU their last 6 road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by at least 9 points. For the season they are averaging just 64 PPG on the road while allowing 69 PPG. Remember, they are facing an Iowa team that averages nearly 90 PPG at home and the Hawks have scored at least 80 points in all but 1 conference home game. We’re just not sure the Spartans can keep up in this game. Not only will Iowa shoot well here as they almost always to at home, they should have a solid advantage at the FT line. 18% of Iowa’s points in league play come from the stripe (4th most) while MSU allows 21% of opponents points at the charity stripe (most in the Big 10). These 2 met in late January with the Spartans winning by a final of 63-61 as a 2.5 point favorite. A couple of takeaways from that game…MSU’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points while Iowa held a 10 point lead at one point. Iowa made only 3 of 17 from deep (17%) while Michigan State made 40% of their triples. Iowa also made just 46% of their FT’s and their season average is 74%. Even with all of that, the Hawkeyes had the ball late and missed two 3-pointers in the final 7 seconds which would have won the game. This one sets up very nicely for Iowa to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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02-24-23 | Kings +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 176-175 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +6.5 vs LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - This is an inflated number for several reasons including the Russell Westbrook signing by the Clippers and the fact the Kings are coming off a game last night. But, while Westbrook is an incredible talent, he may also be a disruptive force early on with the Clippers as he tries to fit in. Secondly, the Kings played last night but it was a blowout win and they kept their minutes down for the starters, plus they are coming off the extended break from the All-Star game. The Kings own the 7th best average point differential on the road this season at -0.7PPG and have a winning straight up record at 15-13. The Clippers on the other hand are 15-13 SU at home but have the 22nd worst average MOV at +1.3PPG. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams and the Kings have covered both prior to this game. In fact, Sacramento has covered 5 of the last seven meetings and we like that trend to continue here. |
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02-24-23 | Georgia State v. James Madison -13.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON James Madison -13.5 over Georgia State, Friday at 8 PM ET - James Madison is playing their home finale on Friday night and will honor 4 seniors, including 3 starters. The Dukes will be highly motivated in their last home game and adding fuel to the fire they are coming off a home loss Thursday night vs Sun Belt 1st place Marshall. That loss dropped JMU to 20-10 on the season and 11-6 in the Sun Belt. They have been a solid money maker this season with an 18-9 ATS record. The Dukes offense has been fantastic all season long averaging 81 PPG (18th nationally) and they’ve been even better at home putting up an average of 86 PPG. That’s going to be a problem for an offensive limited Georgia State team that is averaging only 61 PPG on the road this season. The Panthers offense ranks 324th in efficiency, 346th in eFG%, and 356th in 3 point FG%. They are facing a JMU defense that ranks 64th nationally in efficiency allowing less than 1.00 PPP and the Dukes create a ton of turnovers (22nd nationally). Meanwhile, Ga State turns the ball over at a very high rate, over 20% in conference play which is dead last in the league. That should lead to a number of extra possessions for James Madison, who is already a high scoring team. GSU is in last place in the league with a 3-14 record having lost 10 of their last 11 games. They are 0-10 SU on the road this year. They just played at home on Senior night Thursday vs a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, App State who is 9-9 in the league, and the Panthers were destroyed by 26 points. Now in their regular season finale, on the road vs one of the top teams in the conference, we don’t expect a great effort in a meaningless game for the Panthers. When these 2 met @ Georgia State earlier this season, JMU won 63-47 despite shooting just 35% overall and 21% from beyond the arc. They also played that game without their 2nd leading scorer, Morse, who is back and playing very well. Even with that, JMU led throughout and cruised to an easy road win. Now at home, and motivated vs a team that looks like they may have packed it in, this one could get ugly. GSU is among the worst ATS teams in CBB with a 6-18-2 spread record and we think they drop another tonight. James Madison BIG. |
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02-24-23 | Heat +110 v. Bucks | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat ML +110 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - No Giannis for the Bucks against a Heat team at nearly full strength. This has turned into a great rivalry stemming from the Playoffs a few years ago and the Heat have been the team to back as far as the spread is concerned. Miami is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings and have beaten the Bucks twice already this season. Milwaukee is on an impressive 12-game winning streak but that was with Giannis and his 31.8PPG, 12.2RPG and 5.4APG in the lineup. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, he scored 35-points, grabbed 15 rebounds and dished out 11 assists. Miami is coming off a 2-game losing streak in which they didn’t have Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Prior to those two games they had won 3 straight with him in the lineup. Historically, the Heat have been solid with coming off a loss with a 55-41 SU record dating back to 2020. Going back to the start of the 2021 season, Miami is one of 9 NBA teams to have a winning overall road record at 40-38 SU. As an away underdog the Heat are 22-16 ATS their last 38 in that role. Granted, the Bucks are 24-5 SU at home this season, but given the circumstances we like the Heat to get this road victory. |
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02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 9 PM ET - This is great set up for an over. The Flames were in Arizona last night where they won 6 to 3. They have goalie issue because Vladar was in goal last night and that means either he goes again in the 2nd game of a B2B or Markstrom gets the call here. Vladar was not overly sharp last night. The Coyotes scored only 3 goals but they actually had very few shots on goal in that game. Vladar has allowed 8 goals on just 38 shots in his last two starts. Markstrom has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 of last 6 games. So you can see why Vegas is expected to score well here. The Golden Knights are off a tough, tight 3-2 shootout loss at Chicago. That should bring a strong effort from a Vegas team that entered that game having won 5 straight games and scoring an average of 5 goals per game in those victories. As for the Golden Knights goalie situation, Hill got hurt in his last start and though it was not a major injury and he could possibly go tonight, he did allow 4 goals in that start and may not be 100 percent here. Thompson has been out since the All-Star game. The Knights had even called up Hutchinson from the AHL to back-up Brossoit Saturday. So, as you can see, both teams have unsettled situations right now at the goalie spot. Brossoit did allow only 2 goals in that start but the Blackhawks are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. Now, whoever ends up in goal for this one for Vegas is facing a Flames team that has scored an average of 3.8 goals last dozen games. This one has the makings of a 5-4 battle and yet a 4-3 game also would put is in the winners circle with this one. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-23-23 | Northwestern v. Illinois -5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
#810 ASA TOP PLAY ON Illinois -5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Cats have won 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 but now they’ve become a bit overvalued in our opinion. The perfect example is when these 2 met in January, the Illini were favored by 3.5 on the road and now they are laying just 1 to 2 points more at home. NW won that first meeting 73-60 and while the Illini held the Wildcats offense in check allowing just 32% from the field, they lost the FT battle 32 to 6! Yes you read that correctly. Northwestern was 32 of 40 from the FT line while Illinois was 6 of 10. That was obviously the difference in the game and one of the more drastic FT differentials we’ve seen this season. Now we get the Illini in revenge mode, at home with a short number, and NW is ahead of them in the Big 10 standings. The Illini have been very good at home with a 13-2 overall record and they are outscoring their opponents by +17 PPG. One of Illinois’ top players, Terrence Shannon, has missed the last 2 games due to a concussion but he was back at practice on Wednesday. No word for sure if he’ll play or not but things are looking good. We’ve handicapped this game as if Shannon will not play so if he does it’s a bonus. NW is coming off a huge 3 game home stand in which they beat Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa. They were underdogs in all of those home games and now they are only a slight dog on the road vs a team that ranks 12 spots higher than Iowa (per KenPom) and nearly identical to Indiana. Two of those wins for NW went to the wire and if they lose those games we’re most likely laying 7 or more here. The Cats were just +5.5 @ Ohio State (who is 3-13 in conference play) in their most recent road game. Great value with Illinois here in our opinion. Prior to beating Illinois last month, Northwestern had lost 8 straight vs the Illini and they’ve only won THREE times in Champaign since 1980. We’ll lay it with the home team. |
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02-23-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Raptors | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are on an impressive 5-1 SU run in their last six games but take a look at who they’ve beaten. Those wins have come against 24-35 Magic, 15-44 Pistons, 14-45 Spurs, 13-45 Rockets and one quality win against the Grizzlies. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last six games and are playing better with Brandon Ingram back in the lineup. The two losses in that stretch came against the Cavaliers and new look Lakers. Toronto I 18-13 SU at home this season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. New Orleans is 10-19 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Clearly neither of those average point differential differences are enough for the Raptors to cover this number. The Raptors are one of the worst overall shooting and 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and will have a tough time scoring against this Pelicans defense that is 7th best in the league in defensive efficiency ratings. The Pelicans have had great success in this series with 5 straight covers overall and a 5-1 ATS record their last six visits to Toronto. |
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02-22-23 | New Mexico v. Boise State -6 | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Broncos have been waiting for this one and that’s stating it lightly. These 2 met back on January 21st and New Mexico won that game at home 81-79 in OT. The Lobos trailed for much of the game (led for about 12 of the 40 minutes in regulation) and never led by more than 5 points despite Boise hitting only 20% of their 3 point shots (5 of 24) which is well below their season average of 36%. Boise head coach Leon Rice was also extremely upset with a halftime incident in which they were headed back to their locker room and the hallway leading back was lined with New Mexico baseball players who were waiting to be introduced to the crowd. Those baseball players were trash talking the BSU players in the very narrow hallway which could have turned into a “riot” according to Rice. That will give the Broncos a little extra fire at home for this game although they shouldn’t need it. BSU has been nearly unbeatable at home in Mountain West play winning 32 of their last 35 including a perfect 7-0 this season with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They shoot 49% as a team at home including 40% from beyond the arc so we don’t expect another 20% effort from the Broncos. The Boise State defense is among the best in the nation ranking 10th in adjusted efficiency, 20th in PPG allowed, and 22nd defending the arc. At home they allow just 59 PPG. New Mexico is coming off an enormous offensive performance @ San Jose State, however they were trending down losing 5 of their previous 6 games prior to that big win. The Lobos shot a ridiculous 64% in that win, including 61% from 3, and made 21 FT’s. No way they come close to those numbers vs the top defense in the MWC on the road. Boise, on the other hand, is coming off a rather ho-hum performance winning a close game vs UNLV as they were undoubtedly looking ahead to this revenger. Boise is just 1 game behind San Diego State for 1st place in the Mountain West and we like them to win and cover on Wednesday night. |
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02-21-23 | Indiana v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This is a huge home game for MSU coming off their loss @ Michigan over the weekend and with 2 straight road games on deck. We were on Michigan over Sparty on Saturday and picked up a 12 point in what we thought was a great spot to fade MSU. Now we’re in a different scenario getting the Spartans at home off the loss vs an IU team that trailed at home most of the way on Saturday but pulled out a tight win. The Hoosiers were behind at half and most of the 2nd half at home vs a short handed Illinois team on Saturday (Illini were minus their leading scorer) but squeaked by with a 3 point win when the Illini scored 3 points in the final 4 minutes of the game. Now IU is on the road where they are just 4-6 on the season and they have a huge rivalry game with Purdue on deck. The Hoosiers numbers take a huge dip on the road where their average margin this season is -5 PPG. They average just 66 PPG away from home while putting up an average of 81 PPG at home. The Hoosiers are just 2-7-1 ATS on the road this season. Sparty is 10-2 at home this season and a perfect 3-0 when playing at home off a loss. Their defense has been very good all season (27th nationally in efficiency) and they are the #1 team in the Big 10 defending the arc allowing just 27% in conference games. MSU takes it to another level at home on the defensive end allowing just 59 PPG. IU took the first meeting rather easily winning 82-69 at home. The Hoosiers hit 60% of their 3’s in that game and outscored MSU by 15 points from the arc. We don’t see that happening here. Home team 26-10 ATS the last 36 meetings and we like Michigan State to get the win and cover. |
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02-21-23 | Ducks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
#51/52 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning are off B2B losses and are a -500 favorite here. Even the puck line at -1.5 is -200 because the Bolts are likely to win this by a 3-goal margin! That is what the oddsmakers expect here as the line at -2.5 goals is -110 and we do expect at least a 5-2 game here totaling 7 goals but really we could see much more scoring in this one. The Ducks are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after losing 4-3 in OT at Florida yesterday. Anaheim has lost 5 straight games and had allowed at least 6 goals in all 4 losses before yesterday's tighter loss. This is now a very tricky spot for the Ducks goaltending as they used Gibson yesterday and the #2 guy Stolarz is still out with an injury and did not even travel on this road trip. That means Anaheim's choices are a struggling Gibson in a B2B spot or a struggling Lukas Dostal who has surrendered an average of 4 goals in losing 4 straight starts. The Lightning will go with either Elliott, who normally struggles and is the back-up, or with Vasliveskiy here. Though Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the game, he has allowed 7 goals in his last 2 starts and actually allowed 7 goals in a start two weeks ago as well. This one has all the makings of a rather wide-open non-conference match-up with a lot of open ice to make plays on. The fact is the goals should be aplenty in this one. Tampa Bay, when off B2B losses this season, has gone a perfect 5-0 and averaged 4.4 goals scored per victory. Now they are in that same situation and facing a Ducks team that can't stop anyone. The Lightning will have a huge game offensively here. As for Anaheim, as bad as their defensive play, they are still a decently skilled team in the offensive zone. The Ducks have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 18 games. By the way, 15 of those 18 games have totaled at least 7 goals and we feel certain this one will too! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU OVER 149.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Kansas vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met back in January with TCU rolling over Kansas 83-60. The total in that game was set at 146.5 and the game when Under yet now this total is set even higher at 149. Interesting and we agree on the move. TCU’s offense is a bit undervalued as they rank 4th in efficiency in the Big 12 but they played 5 of their last 6 games without their top offensive player, Mike Miles. With Miles on the shelf this TCU team averaged only 67 PPG and when he came back on Saturday they put up 100 points on Oklahoma State who is fantastic defensively. In fact, the Cowboys rank 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to Saturday’s outburst from the Horned Frogs, Okie State was allowing just 64 PPG. With Miles in the line up this season TCU is averaging 78.5 PPG. They shredded the KU defense in the first meeting and we expect they’ll do the same at home where the are averaging 79 PPG on the season. KU is averaging 77 PPG on the road this season but shot poorly at home in the first meeting (39%). Their offense is peaking now and we expect a much better performance. The Jayhawks have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve faced 5 top 50 defenses (efficiency) during that stretch. Defensively they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 4 of their last 6 games. These are 2 of the faster paced teams in the country (both inside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency) and neither turns the ball over very often so we expect plenty of possessions in this game. Over is the play on Monday night. |
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02-19-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 139.5 | Top | 55-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - When these 2 met in January the total was set at 139 and the game went over the total by 1 point with Purdue winning 71-69. Both offenses played well in that game combining to make 47% of their shots overall and 42% of their 3 points shots. Both eclipsed their average offensive efficiency in league play with OSU scoring 1.15 PPP and Purdue 1.18 PPP in that game. They average 1.01 and 1.10 PPP in conference play respectively. Despite the very good offensive performance, they still only made it to 140 total points. Neither offense is playing very well right now. OSU’s offense has fallen off a cliff. They did score 75 in their most recent game but that was vs Iowa who is the fastest paced team in the league and the 12th most efficient defense in the conference. Prior to that they had been held to 70 points or less in 10 of 12 games and now they face a Purdue defense that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency allowing 0.95 PPP. Purdue has been held under 60 points in back to back games and it averaging just 70 PPG over their last 5. The Boilers will keep this game at a slow tempo as they are the slowest paced team in Big 10 play. Under is the play in this one. |
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02-18-23 | Michigan State v. Michigan -2 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#778 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -2 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wolverines last Saturday were laying -2 at home vs Indiana. It was a game Michigan led pretty much throughout but went the final 5:00+ minutes of the game without scoring a single point and lost to the Hoosiers 62-61. Michigan missed their final 8 shots of the game and didn’t go to the FT line once in the final 5:00 minutes. IU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with under 3:00 remaining in the game. The Wolverines followed that up with a loss @ Wisconsin on Tuesday night and they are now in must win mode at home. Their only other home loss in Big 10 play was a tight game (75-70) vs Purdue and the Wolverines played that game without one of their top players, Jett Howard. On Saturday Michigan is laying -1.5 (opening line) vs MSU so less than last week vs IU despite the fact that the Hoosiers rank 10+ spots higher than the Spartans per KenPom. When these 2 met in East Lansing this season Sparty was favored by 3.5 and won 59-53. That tells us this line should be Michigan by around 4 points (or a bit higher) which is right in line with our power ratings giving us value on the host here. In that first meeting Michigan shot just 35% from the field and a terrible 15% from beyond the arc and scored only 18 points in the first half. Even with that terrible offensive performance, they still had a shot at the road win. MSU has been through a lot this week which is not ideal. Their game vs Minnesota on Wednesday was cancelled and school was called off until next week due to the terrible shooting tragedy on campus. Sparty continued to practice but per their head coach Tom Izzo their practices were “awful” midweek which is completely understandable. This is a tough spot for them on the road where they have not been good this season. They have a losing road record on the season and are scoring just 63 PPG away from home this season. The host has dominated this rivalry with the home team winning and covering 9 straight. Make that 10 straight with the Wolverines on Saturday night. |
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02-18-23 | Iowa State v. Kansas State -3 | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas State -3 over Iowa State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU has lost 5 of their last 7 games and now they are backed into a corner at home in a must win spot. 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss this season was 69-66 setback vs Texas (13-1 home record for KSU). The Cats have dropped from 1st place in the Big 12 to 5th place 1 game behind today’s opponent Iowa State. The Cyclones have one of the most dramatic home – road dichotomies on the Big 12. While they are 6-1 at home, ISU is just 2-5 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins in Big 12 play came way back in early January and they have since lost 5 straight away from home. On the road for the season ISU is averaging just 64 PPG and getting outscored by an average of 5.5 points per game. Kansas State at home this season has won by an average score of 75-60 and their defense has been outstanding at Bramlage Coliseum holding opponents to just 38% from the field overall and 25% from beyond the arc. That’ll be a problem for an ISU team that struggles to score on the road. When these 2 met in January in Ames, IA, the Cyclones squeaked out an 80-76 win. ISU shot 57% from the field at home in that game yet KSU still had a shot to win trailing by 2 points with under 30 seconds remaining. Now on the road, we expect the Cyclones to shoot much closer to their average which is 44% away from home. KSU has covered 6 of their last 7 home games and they are 10-4 ATS here on the season. We look for the Wildcats to bounce back at home and pick up a win & cover. |
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02-17-23 | New Mexico v. San Jose State -1 | Top | 96-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -1 over New Mexico, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - New Mexico has fallen off a cliff since their perfect 14-0 start. Since January 1st the Lobos have a record of 5-7 and they have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those as favorites. They now sit under .500 in the Mountain West (6-7 record) despite playing the easiest conference schedule to date. The New Mexico defense has really taken a hit over the last few weeks allowing opponents to make over 50% of their shots and 41% of their 3 pointers all while allowing nearly 79 PPG over the last 5 games. San Jose State has been quietly having a solid season with a record of 16-10 overall and 7-6 (5th place) in the MWC. They have one of the most unheralded yet successful coaches in college hoops with Tim Miles who coaches previously at Nebraska, North Dakota State, & Colorado State. He took over a SJSU program in 2021/22 that had a grand total of 20 wins the previous 4 seasons and already has them with a shot at a 20 win season this year. The Spartans are 5-1 at home in conference play this season and have won 3 of their last 4 games. These 2 met in mid January when New Mexico was 16-2 on the season. The Lobos easily won at home 77-57 and the Spartans were abysmal offensively in that game shooting just 34% overall, just 19% from beyond the arc and made only 9 FT’s. The Lobos hit 53% of their shots on that day and made 20 FT’s. That performance should give San Jose a little extra juice at home on Friday night. New Mexico leading scorer Jaelen House has missed the last 2 games due to a hamstring injury and head coach Richard Pitino said he’s not sure if he’ll be ready on Friday. Even if he does play, a hamstring problem could severely limit his quickness which is a key part of his game. The host is an impressive 15-3 ATS in this series and we’ll call for another home win and cover tonight. |
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02-17-23 | Stars -105 v. Wild | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
#61 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -105 over Minnesota, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Stars are off B2B losses but they faced Tampa Bay and Boston. The Lightning and Bruins are two of the top teams in the NHL. Dallas is 7-1 this season when entering a game off B2B losses. Indeed, the Stars worst losing streak this season is 3 games and it has happened only one time this season. Dallas is sure to respond here and they are catching a Wild team in a major slump. Overall, Minnesota does not have a single win in regulation last 11 games! The Wild have won only 3 of those games and all 3 were after regulation time. Of the 8 losses, 7 were in regulation time and were by an average margin of 2 goals! Dallas has allowed a total of only 14 goals in regulation time of last 9 games - an average of just 1.6 goals per game! Compare this to a Minny team that is allowing an average of 3.3 goals per game last 11 games. The Wild have scored an average of just 1.8 goals per game in regulation time of last 11 games. Dallas has scored an average of 3 goals per game in regulation time of last 12 games. The Stars have won 2 of last 3 road games and those were each 4-0 wins. They also have knocked off the Wild by 4-1 scores in each of last two meetings. As you can see per the above, the odds in this situation favor another Dallas win yet the game is priced at a pick'em because the Stars are on the road. Grab the excellent line value available here with the pick'em price on the road team in this one. |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These are two of the slower paced teams in the NBA as the Clippers average 97.3 possession per game which is 5th slowest. The Suns rank 9th slowest at 98 possessions per game. These are also two of the best defenses in the NBA ranking top 10 in defensive efficiency. These two teams have already met twice this season and produced 207 and 206 total points. The O/U’s on those two games were 219.5 and 218.5. Now we get an inflated number of 224 to work with and will bet Under again. Both teams have favored Unders this entire season and historically they’ve stayed below the number in 6 straight and 8 of the last ten meetings. Bet Under |
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02-16-23 | Purdue v. Maryland UNDER 133.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#749/750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Purdue vs Maryland, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Purdue topped the Terps 58-55 in a very low scoring game. We anticipate another Under play tonight. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and in PPG allowed with the Boilers giving up only 61.7 PPG and Maryland allowing 62.8 PPG. They are also both slow paced teams which should limit possessions. Purdue ranks 13th in the Big 10 (out of 14 teams) in adjusted tempo and Maryland ranks 12th in the conference in that stat. In the first meeting these 2 really struggled from beyond the arc and we look for a similar result on Thursday. Neither team is a great from beyond the arc with Maryland 335th nationally in 3 point % and Purdue ranked 202nd in that stat. Both defenses defend the arc very well allowing 30% (Maryland) and 31% (Purdue) to their opponents. Both offenses rely heavily on getting to the FT line (both score over 20% of their total points from the stripe) but that doesn’t bode well here as Purdue allows the fewest points from the FT line of any team in the country and Maryland is solid in that regard as well. Purdue’s offense has solid season long efficiency numbers, however on the road in Big 10 play they are averaging only 64 PPG. Maryland’s offense ranks 8th in the Big 10 (conference play) in efficiency and 10th in eFG%. The Terps have played 6 games this season vs the top 5 Big 10 defensive teams (efficiency) and they are averaging 57 PPG in those contests. These 2 have combined to play 51 games this season and their Under record is 32-19. Another low scoring Big 10 game on Thursday night. |
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02-15-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in Boston on the 12th and will look to rebound against the Jazz back at home. Utah is off a road win in Indianapolis on the 13th but are just 3-6 SU their last nine games. Memphis is 23-5 SU at home with the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on their home court at +10.5PPG. When coming off a loss and playing at home the Grizz are 6-3 SU and ATS. Utah is 11-18 SU for the season on the road with a negative differential of -2.4PPG. The last time these two teams met on this court was back on Jan 8th with the Grizzlies winning 123-118 as a -5.5-point favorite. Memphis played that game without Ja Morant or Steven Adams and Utah had Mike Conley. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and with the Grizzlies +/- at home we like them to win and do so by their average MOV. Lay it! |
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02-15-23 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Alabama vs Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the very best defensive teams in the nation are facing off in this one. They rank #1 and #2 nationally in eFG% defense and 3 point % defense. The Vols are the top defensive efficiency team in the country allowing 0.86 points per possession and Bama ranks 6th nationally in that stat allowing 0.90 PPP. They key to this total staying under will be tempo. The Tide want to play fast and they thrive in an up tempo game. We don’t think there is any way the Vols allow this to be an up & down game. There best chance and winning this one is to slow the pace which they prefer anyway ranking 14th (dead last) in the SEC on adjusted tempo (conference games). We’ve always said it’s tough to speed up a team that likes to play slow, especially at home. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but neither is a great shooting team from deep with Bama ranking 125th in the country in 3 point % and Tennessee ranks 231st. On top of that, as we mentioned, these are the 2 best 3 point defensive teams in the nation so we don’t expect either to go crazy from deep. The Vols are allowing just 53 PPG at home this season and their games at home are averaging 130 total points. The Tide are averaging an impressive 88 PPG at home this season, however their point total on the road drops significantly to 76 PPG. Now the face the most efficient defense in the country and in their 9 road games thus far the average rank of the defenses they’ve faced is 81st and they’ve averaged 144 total points in those games. Alabama coach Oats and Tennessee coach Barnes have faced off 4 times since Oats to the Bama job in 2019. All 4 games have gone Under the total and none have topped 141 total points. Going back further, these 2 SEC rivals have gone Under the total 9 straight times. We’ll call for another Under tonight. |
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02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* LA Clippers -8 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Clippers catch a break here having been off since Feb 10th, a home game and loss to Milwaukee. The Warriors on the other hand are coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. That typically means “load management” for a few Warrior starters. Golden State is the worst spread record team in the NBA on the road this season with an 8-19 ATS record and own a negative average point differential of -7.8PPG. As we mentioned the Clippers are rested which means Leonard and George will be in the lineup. When playing with 3 days rest the Clippers are 26-7-1 ATS their last 34. Los Angeles is playing with same season revenge here too as they lost in Golden State by 17-points earlier this season. Scheduling is a key factor here so we’ll lay the points with the Clippers. |
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02-14-23 | Panthers v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
#19/20 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - The Panthers, prior to a 2-1 SO win at Minnesota last night, 9 of last 10 games had all totaled at least 7 goals. Florida, yesterday's game notwithstanding, has struggled to stop the opposition for quite some time now. Consider last night's game to be a bit of an aberration. Though Sergei Bobrovksy was in goal last night and has been better of late, he is unlikely to start here in the 2nd game of a B2B. If Bobrovsky did start, note that he has allowed at least 4 goals both times he has started the 2nd night of a B2B this season. The more likely starter would be Spencer Knight and he will be rusty after a long layoff plus he has mostly struggled this season. The Panthers, prior to the 2-1 win over the Wild last night, had allowed at least 4 goals in 11 of last 15 road games. The strength of Florida however is their potent attack. The Panthers have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 15 games. This battle with the Blues should see plenty of goals as St Louis had 3 guys come back in most recent game and that was a 6-5 win and they are finally getting healthy again. Similar to Florida however, the Blues continue to struggle to slow down the opposition. St Louis has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 straight games and 8 of last 10 games. In those 10 games, the Blues have allowed an average of 4 goals per game. When these teams met earlier this season in Florida the game totaled 9 goals in a 5-4 thriller! With the way these teams are trending now, this one has the makings of another shootout. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +2.5 over Creighton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Jays are at the top end of their market right now having won 8 straight games. They are coming off a huge home win over UConn, a game they had been waiting for since losing to the Huskies earlier this season. Now they are on the road facing a Friars team who has lost 2 of their last 3 games, both on the road, including a 5 point setback on St Johns on Saturday as a 4.5 point favorite. They get a shot at revenge here after losing @ Creighton in mid January, a game that started the Blue Jays current winning streak. In that game, Creighton was favored by 7 and topped Providence by 5 points shooting 48% from the field compared to 38% for the Friars. Providence also played that game without one of the top players and starting PG Jared Bynum who is back healthy now and has averaged 23 PPG since his return 5 games ago. Providence is 13-0 at home this season averaging 83 PPG while allowing 66 PPG. The Jays are 3-3 on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Butler and Georgetown, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big East. Their other road win was @ Seton Hall where Creighton shot a ridiculous 61% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. Based on the previous line between these 2 @ Creighton, the Friars should be a slight favorite here but they are getting points. Take the value with Providence at home. |
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02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +8 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - This line is clearly inflated with the hype surrounding Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic joining forces in Dallas. I find it very interesting Kyrie has played with some of the biggest names in the game (LeBron, KD, Tatum, Harden) and yet is never happy? I think in the end this will be another failed experiment in Dallas as you have two ball-dominant point guards and sharing the rock isn’t a priority for either. In any case, the Mavericks will take time to adjust and solidify rotations and it’s not like they were a great favorite this season. The Mavs are 12-25-2 ATS as a chalk this season with a +/- in those games of +3.6PPG (not enough to cover here). Minnesota has a winning spread record as a dog at 16-14 ATS with an average differential of minus -2.2PPG. The Wolves brought in vet point guard Michael Conley which should pay immediate dividends as his pick and roll skills are much better than since departed Russell. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games with some impressive wins over some of the better teams in the West. Minnesota won earlier this season at home by 10-points, then played the Mavs tough in Dallas in a 5-point loss. We expect another close game here. |
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02-13-23 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Arizona Coyotes Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Nashville is off an OT win but still only 6-5 last 11 games. The big key about the 6 wins, however, is the fact that 4 of the 6 wins were by just a single goal. That means that only twice in last 11 games have the Predators recorded a win by more than a 1-goal margin. Here the Preds are hosting a Coyotes team that has been ultra competitive of late so there is a lot of line value here with the +1.5 goals. Arizona enters this game 3-1-3 last 7 games. Yes, 3 of last 4 losses have been in OT or SO so they were 1 goal defeats. Only once in last seven games have the Coyotes been beaten by more than a 1-goal margin. This should be another ultra-competitive game and we will not pass up on the line value with the big underdog in this match-up. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Arizona is the value play here. |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL +5.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - This line is about 3 points too high according to our power ratings. The Canes sit ahead of UNC in the ACC standings with an 11-4 record (UNC is 8-6) and even their losses have come down to the wire. Miami’s 4 conference losses have come by a combined 13 points with none by more than 6. The Heels are 6-1 in ACC play at home, however they’ve played a very easy slate of teams at the Dean Dome. They’ve faced 1 team at home in conference play currently ranked inside the top 60 per KenPom and that was a loss vs Pitt (ranked 58th). Now they face the best team they’ve seen at home this entire season. The Canes are the much better shooting team in this match up. They rank #1 in the ACC (conference games) in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%. On top of that they are hitting 79% of their FT’s in ACC play. UNC ranks dead last in the league in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. Miami has a solid edge in the backcourt with Wong & Pack who combine to average 29 PPG while shooting 38% and 40% from 3’s respectively. They should have a field day vs Carolina’s defense that ranks 155th guarding the arc. The Canes have shown they can knock off the best in the ACC with wins vs Virginia and Duke. UNC is 0-4 this season vs the top tier teams in the conference (UVA, Duke, Miami, and Pitt). Too many points here as even if the Heels are able to pull of this home win, we anticipate a close game. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 245 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same. |
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02-12-23 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 1 PM ET - We like the Grizzlies plus the points in this NBA showdown. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA but Memphis is a team that can certainly come out of the West. The Grizzlies have had some ups and downs with players missing with injuries but have put together two strong games in a row beating Chicago and Minnesota. Going into the trade deadline there were rumors the Grizzlies were active, but now that everyone knows they are staying in Memphis they can relax and play. The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries to starters Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, which is significant when you’re trying to stop Ja Morant. Memphis and Boston rank 2nd and 5th in defensive efficiency so they are essentially even. Boston has a much better overall offensive efficiency but Memphis can get some easy opportunities with their transition game which is the 3rd best in the league. Boston is also reliant on their 3-points shooting but the Grizzlies are solid in defending the arc. The line on this game is set this low for a reason and looks like a trap. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
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02-12-23 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 137 | Top | 62-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst teams in the Big 10 when it comes to offensive efficiency. MSU ranks 11th in the conference (league games) averaging 0.99 points per possession and OSU is 9th at 1.02 PPP. Sparty averages just 65 PPG in conference play and the Buckeyes put up only 68 PPG. OSU has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their offense is in a free fall right now. Their conference numbers are a bit skewed due to their 93 points outburst vs Iowa (the fastest paced team and worst defensive team in the league) but outside of that, the Bucks have topped 70 points just two other times in Big 10 play. Over their last 5 outings Ohio State is averaging 64 PPG on 42% shooting and an abysmal 26% from beyond the arc. Now facing an MSU defense that leads the Big 10 in 3-point defense and is in the top 4 in FG% allowed and points allowed, we look for another struggle from the OSU offense. The Buckeyes defense is middle of the pack in the Big 10 in FG% and 3 point % allowed but they should look better than that today vs an MSU offense the just isn’t very good. The Spartans are averaging just 64 PPG on the road this year and in their last 5 games they are putting up only 62 PPG. They have topped 70 points just ONCE in Big 10 play and that was vs Nebraska. MSU has had only 2 of their 13 conference games have 140 total points this season and those games were vs Indiana & Illinois. Just 4 of OSU’s 13 Big 10 games have topped 140 total points. We have this total set in the low 130’s with our power ratings so we like the value on the Under here. We don’t expect either team to reach 70 and Under is the play. |
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02-11-23 | Pacers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +5 at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - One negative here is scheduling as the Pacers just played last night at home versus the Suns and lost. But, Indiana is 7-4 SU this season when playing without rest this season and they kept all of the starters minutes to under 30. Washington beat Charlotte at home as a -3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. If the Wizards were just favored by -3.5 versus Charlotte, why are they -5 versus a better Indiana team? Washington is 13-12 SU at home this season with an average point differential of -0.7PPG which is 26th in the NBA. As a home favorite, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS, minus -0.4PPG. Indiana is a respectable 17-14 ATS when coming off a loss this season, 3-1 in their last four. Our model has Washington favored by -2.5 points here so let’s grab the value with Indiana |
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02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Cyclones have been night and day when it comes to home vs away games in conference play this season. Overall for the season ISU is 12-0 SU at home and just 2-6 on the road. In Big 12 play they are 5-0 at home and 2-5 on the road. We’re catching them in a great spot as well coming off a road loss @ West Virginia on Wednesday night (we were on WVU). This line is short in our opinion because it looks like Oklahoma State is on a great roll winning 6 of their last 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games have been at home and their 1 road win during that stretch was vs a free falling Oklahoma team that has lost 6 straight conference games and is only 2-9 in Big 12 play. The fact is, OSU has lost every other Big 12 road game (1-4 SU on the road) besides their win at Oklahoma. Iowa State has been dominant at home as we mentioned. Of their 12 home wins, 11 have come by double digits. Many of those wins coming vs top tier Big 12 teams as they beat Kansas by 15, Baylor by 15, and Texas by 11, all better teams than Oklahoma State. They are averaging 75 PPG at home while their defense has been stifling at Hilton Coliseum allowing just 53 PPG on 38% shooting and 28% from beyond the arc. We anticipate the OSU offense, who averages just 0.96 points per possession in Big 12 play (8th) to have all kinds of problems scoring in this one. When these 2 met in late January in Stillwater, the Cowboys made 7 more three pointers and 9 more FT’s in the game yet only won by 2 points. That’s a 30 point edge from beyond the arc + FT’s made and ISU still had a shot to win the game. In fact, ISU led for much of that game with their largest lead being 16 points while OSU largest lead at home in that game was just 3 points. Despite these 2 teams having similar Big 12 records (ISU 7-4 / OSU 6-5) the Cyclones have been the superior team by a decent margin in conference play. Iowa State is +10 points per 100 possessions (efficiency margin) in league play while Oklahoma State is dead even in that statistic. In fact, ISU leads the Big 12 in efficiency margin which tells us they are better than their 7-4 conference record. The Cowboys are 8th in the conference in that stat telling us they aren’t as good as their 6-5 record. The Cowboys are also missing a key piece to their lineup with Avery Anderson (11 PPG / 3.5 rebounds / 3.5 assists) most likely out here and contributed 18 points in the first meeting with ISU. We expect the Cyclones to win this one by double digits. |
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02-11-23 | Connecticut v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#662 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over UConn, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Jays are on quite a roll right now winning 10 of their last 12 games since their 7’1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15 PPG & 7 RPG) returned to the line up after missing 3 games in mid December (all losses). Their only 2 setbacks during this impressive run were @ Xavier by 3 and @ UConn by 9. They’ve been waiting patiently for this rematch. The Huskies have done pretty much the opposite starting the season very well but falling off as of late. They won their first 14 games of the season, but since that UConn is 5-6 over their last 11 games. The Huskies are just 3-4 on the road in Big East play and their 3 wins away from home have come vs Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler, the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. In fact, those are the only 3 Big East teams that are not ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, a 69-60 UConn win, the stats were pretty even across the board with the one different being UConn made 8 three pointers (33% from deep) while Creighton made only 2 of 16 for 12%. That was an 18 point difference from beyond the arc in favor of the Huskies in that game. We expect those numbers from beyond the arc to be in favor of the Jays in this one as they shoot 36% from deep at home and make an average of 9.5 triples per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big East play this season (32-6 here their last 38 Big East games) and 5 of those wins have come by double digits. The Blue Jays average margin of victory at home in conference play this season is +16.5 PPG. We also expect them to have a big advantage at the FT line here. In the meeting @ UConn it was dead even (UConn 19 made FT’s to 18 for Creighton). The Huskies foul more than any other team in the Big East allowing 24% of their opponents points (conference games) to come from the stripe. Creighton fouls the least of any team in the league with only 14% of opponents points coming from the FT line. If we look at their Big East stats only (similar strength of schedule), Creighton is outscoring their opponents by +15 points per 100 possessions compared to UConn’s +7 points per 100 possessions. These 2 have faced each other only 6 times with Creighton winning 5 including 2-0 at home. Lay the small number with the Blue Jays on Saturday. |
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02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
#890 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State -2.5 over Northern Kentucky, Friday at 9 PM ET - Wright State struggled early in the Horizon League season but they’ve hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was by 2 points in OT on the road vs the top team in the conference, Youngstown State. The Raiders are now 8-7 in conference play taking on the 10-4 Northern Kentucky Norse who are overvalued in our opinion. The Norse have played 14 conference games with 9 of those coming at home. They have 3 road wins, however those have come vs the 3 worst teams in the Horizon League – UW Green Bay (ranked 361 per KenPom out of 363 teams), IUPUI (ranked 360) and Robert Morris (ranked 267). Those three teams have a combined record of 18-58 on the season so far from impressive road wins for NKU. This will be their 3rd straight road game which is far from ideal. While Northern is very solid defensively, the really struggle on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 250 in scoring, FG%, and 3 point %. They also make only 67% of their FT’s on the season. Wright State is very good offensively ranking 4th in the nation hitting over 50% of their shots on the season while averaging 81 PPG. At home that number jumps to 86 PPG while Northern KY only puts up 60 PPG on the road. We’re not sure NKU can keep up here and we’re laying a short number with Wright State. The Norse have a spread record of 7-16 (354th nationally) on the season while Wright has been a money maker as of late covering 5 straight. This is also a revenger after WSU lost at NKU earlier in the season. Take the Raiders at home on Friday Night. |
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02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET - These two teams don’t like each other after a very intense playoff series a year ago. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the home team having won and covered the three previous clashes. The last confrontation was recently in late January in Minnesota with the Wolves winning by 11-points. Memphis made a quiet move at the trade deadline but did bring in shooter Luke Kennard. Minnesota dumped De’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt and brought in vet Mike Connelly and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. For our purposes we doubt any of these players will be in the lineups tonight. Memphis had lost 3 straight games prior to beating Chicago by 15-points at home in their most recent game. Minnesota is coming off a 143-118 win at Utah, but prior to that game gave up 146 in a loss to the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the 2nd best +/- at home this season of +10.1PPG and an overall record of 22-5 SU. Dating back to the start of last season the Grizz are 47-26-1 ATS at home (best record in the NBA) with an average Margin of Victory of +9.6PPG. As a road dog the Wolves are an mediocre 37-35 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. Playing with quick revenge we like the Grizzlies big at home tonight. |
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02-09-23 | UAB +3 v. North Texas | Top | 79-82 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +3 over North Texas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We really like this UNT team, however we’re catching a very undervalued UAB getting points and we can’t pass that up. UAB is finally back at full strength with Jelly Walker back in the lineup after missing 5 straight games from mid January to early February. Walker is the Blazers leading scoring at 22 PPG and makes nearly 40% of this 3’s along with 85% of his FT’s. He’s been back for 2 games and UAB won both including topping the best team in the conference, FAU who is 22-2 on the season, by 9 points last Thursday night. These 2 met in late January and UAB was a 3 point favorite at home in that game despite Walker not playing. UNT pulled the upset shooting 48% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc, both well above their season averages. The fact is the Mean Green are not a great shooting team despite that effort @ UAB. They rank 349th nationally averaging just 62 PPG and outside the top 300 making only 41% of their shots on the season. They are also the slowest paced team in the nation and those 2 things combined make it tough for them to win games by a large margin. UNT is 19-5 on the season yet their average margin of victory is just +7 PPG. They have played 4 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 and lost 3 of those with their only win coming vs this undermanned UAB team who is now full strength. The 3 best teams in CUSA are FAU, UNT, and UAB. When the Blazers had Walker on the court they beat FAU handily at home as we mentioned and lost by just 2 points on the road. North Texas lost both of their games vs FAU this season. The Green have already lost 2 home games in conference play and 2 of their 4 home wins in the league have come by 4 points or fewer. The road team has won 9 in a row outright in this series & the dog has covered 5 straight. We think UAB has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points. |
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02-09-23 | Sharks v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -143 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#35/36 ASA PLAY ON 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers just hammered the Lightning 7-1 on home ice Monday night. This is a tough spot for the Florida defense and goaltending to be in top form (coming off huge win over in-state divisional rival TB) and they should allow plenty of goals again tonight as a result. However, they can take advantage of facing a Sharks team that gives up plenty of goals. San Jose enters this one having allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 20 games. Sharks have scored 4 goals per game last 4 games too! San Jose has been on a long stretch in which almost all their games have totaled at least 7 goals. Sharks 16 of 20 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Prior to a 4-3 OT win at Tampa Bay Tuesday, 6 of the last 8 Sharks games that did total at least 7 goals did reach the 8-goal mark. So yes this is a big total with 7 goals being the posted number in most books. However, don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Of course the goal is never a push with a bet but the fact is we get some added insurance here with 7 being a push rather than a loss. Given all the numbers involving these clubs once could easily argue the posted total should be 7.5 goals in this one! Taking a look at Florida's numbers entering this one, the Panthers have had 8 straight games total at least 7 goals and 6 of those 8 did total at least 8 goals! Look for yet another one to reach at least the 8-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 234 | Top | 122-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - This is an interesting O/U number considering the Blazers just face Milwaukee at home and that was 241. Golden State plays faster than Milwaukee, in fact they lead the league in possessions per game, they are more efficient offensively and worse defensively. Portland has scored 121 or more points in 4 of their last five games and now face a Warriors team that ranks 16th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.144 points per possession. Portland has the 5th best average points scored per possession in the NBA at 1.167PPP. The Blazers do play slower but they are also one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland allows 1.165PPP which ranks them 27th in the NBA. Golden State averages 113.5PPG on the season, but in their last ten games that number has risen to 117.1PPG. The Over has cashed 16 of the last 22 meetings in Portland and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight. |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home. |
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02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday. |
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02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 227 | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 NY Knicks @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - Our model is projecting a low scoring game here between two teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. The Magic are the 17th slowest team in the league, the Knicks are 28th slowest. That is one big part of the equation here as possessions will be limited. The Knicks own the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.162-points per possession but with the slower pace that translates to 114PPG. The Magic own the 25th worst OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.120PPP and average 111.4PPG. Defensively the Knicks hold the advantage with the 16th ranked efficiency unit, the Magic rank 22nd. These teams have met just once this season and they combined for 217 total points. If we go back 10 games that 217 is the highest combined total points scored in this series. The league average for a game this season is 228 total points scored and this does not set up to be an ‘average’ game. The Knicks rank 24th in overall team FG% and 23rd in 3PT%. Orlando isn’t much better, ranking 17th in FG% and 21st in 3PT%. Easy call with the UNDER in this one! |
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02-06-23 | Bucks v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers! |
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02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night. |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver. |
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02-05-23 | Fordham v. Richmond UNDER 135.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Fordham vs Richmond, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Fordham likes to play at a fast pace, however Richmond knows they can’t run with the Rams and would prefer a slower paced game. The Spiders are the 4th slowest paced team in the A10 and nationally they rank 284th in adjusted tempo. We anticipate Richmond getting the pace they want at home and slowing this game down. If that happens, we expect an easy Under as both defenses are far superior to the opposing offenses. The defenses in this match up rank 91st nationally (Fordham) and 108th (Richmond) in adjusted defensive efficiency while the offenses each rank outside the top 200. When it comes to conference play only, Fordham ranks 14th in offensive efficiency in the 15 team league and Richmond comes in at 13th in that category. They are also the 2 worst 3-point shooting teams in conference play with Fordham making only 27% of their triples and Richmond just 29%. Neither team is efficient on the offensive glass and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t look for many 2nd chance points. The Spiders have topped 64 points just once in their last 7 games and Fordham has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Rams offense has had some high scoring games over the last week, however those were vs fast paced teams in higher possession games. When they played the slower paced teams in the A10 they scored just 43 vs Davidson and 58 vs Dayton. We don’t see either team getting out of the 60’s in this game and we grab the Under. |
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02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-129 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm et - The Blazers are coming off a big road win last night in Washington. Chicago got a ‘W’ the previous night against the Hornets. When Portland has played without rest this season those games have finished with or averaged 227.8 total points. When playing on the road the Blazers score 109PPG and allow 112.2PPG. Chicago at home averages 114.6PPG and gives up 112.3PPG. The Blazers prefer a slower tempo ranking as the 7th slowest paced team in the league, the Bulls are 16th, slightly below average. Chicago has stayed Under this total in 5 of their last six games. In recent games against other similar Eastern Conference teams the Blazers have totaled 228 against Toronto and 200 versus Philly. With trade rumors swirling around the Bulls roster we aren’t sure how invested they’ll be in today’s game. Both have favored the Under this season with a combined 55-45-2 record. The play here is UNDER! |
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02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana. |
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02-04-23 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -120 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Money Line -120 over Virginia, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Hmm. What do we have here? A Virginia team currently ranked in the 3 top 10 with a 9-2 ACC record vs a Va Tech team that is unranked and just 3-8 in the league. And Va Tech is favored! That alone speaks volumes and we do understand why they are a slight favorite. The Cavs have played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC thus far. There are 5 teams in the ACC ranked outside the top 100 and Virginia has already faced 3 of them including Florida State twice. They’ve also faced Syracuse twice who is the next lowest rated team in the conference behind the 5 outside the top 100. The four highest rated teams in the ACC besides UVA are UNC, Duke, NC State, and Miami. The Cavs have played just 2 of their 11 conference games vs those teams and they are 1-2 in those games losing to Miami and beating UNC. Their win over the Heels comes with a big asterisk as UNC played without 2 of their key players in that game Bacot & Nance who combined to average 29 PPG and 17 RPG on the season and despite that UNC trailed by just 3 on the road with less than 40 seconds remaining in the game (lost by 7). Despite their 3-8 ACC record, Virginia Tech is rated in the top 55 in the nation. They are 13-9 overall but better than their record would indicate. 5 of their 8 conference losses have come by 4 points or less or in OT. The Hokies played 4 conference games without their top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor (43% from deep & 11 PPG), and lost all of those games. He’s back now and has scored 55 points in his last 3 games alone including wins over Duke & Syracuse. They are 10-2 at home this season but Cattoor was out of the line up for both losses, down to the wire games vs NC State and Clemson. These 2 met a few weeks ago @ UVA and the Cavs prevailed by 10 points hitting 51% from the field and making 10 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. Va Tech has won each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Virginia and we think they topple the Cavaliers again on Saturday. Last year was on a similar path start slow in conference play (2-7 through first 9 games) and then closing strong winning 9 of their final 11 before sweeping 4 games in the ACC tourney and winning that. This team is healthy and starting to play well. Take the Hokies on Saturday. |
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02-03-23 | Kent State v. Akron UNDER 133.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
#885/886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Kent State vs Akron, Friday at 9 PM ET - The 2 best teams in the MAC squaring off here in what we expect will be a defensive battle. These are the 2 top defensive teams in the conference ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Both are very good at creating turnovers defensively ranking 1st and 2nd in the MAC (both over 20% defensive TO rate) which will lead to some lost offensive possessions for each. Akron has allowed more than 70 points just one time in their 9 conference games. Kent has allowed more than 70 points just twice in their 8 MAC contests. These 2 lead the league in scoring defense and when it comes to pace, don’t expect and up and down game as Akron ranks 12th (dead last) in adjusted tempo in MAC play and Kent ranks 10th. Offensively neither is a great shooting team with each ranking outsited the top 200 in eFG% and both are below average from beyond the arc at 32% and 33%. Not only are these 2 the best teams in the league, this is a huge rivalry which has led to a number of low scoring games in this heated series. 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total and only 2 of the last 10 have topped 133 total points. These 2 have combined to play 40 games this season and only 15 have gone Over the total. Under is the play in this HUGE MAC game tonight. |
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02-03-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points. |
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02-02-23 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team. |
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02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home. |
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02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night. |
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02-01-23 | Nets +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 96-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak. |
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01-31-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 239 | Top | 115-124 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks offense is starting to click. Milwaukee has scored 130 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. In one of those games the Bucks put up 150 points against a Pistons team that allows 1.193-points per possession. Charlotte is nearly as bad defensively allowing 1.163PPP. The Hornets are better offensively when they have point guard LaMelo Ball on the court but they’re also worse defensively. Ball returned for the Hornets two games ago and Charlotte promptly won two straight against a pair of quality teams in the Bulls and Heat. Charlotte is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, Milwaukee is 12th so we can bet on a higher paced game. Milwaukee is scoring 127PPG over their last five games but also allowing 117PPG. When these two teams met earlier this month they combined for 247 total points and an easy Over. Our computers are calling for roughly the same result. |
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01-31-23 | Mississippi State v. South Carolina UNDER 128 | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here. |
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01-30-23 | Raptors v. Suns -125 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on: Phoenix Suns -125 vs Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Suns in this match up as they have found a rhythm in their last six games going 5-1 SU and ATS. Four of those recent wins have come at home, two of them came against quality teams in Memphis and Brooklyn. Toronto has won 3 of their last four games but haven’t been great on the road overall this season at 8-16 SU. With this line being as low as it is we essentially just need the Suns to win outright. In fact, instead of laying the 1.5 points here you can take the money line -125 which is what we suggest here. Is worth just a little extra juice. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG which is 9th best in the NBA. Toronto ranks 28th in overall field goal percentage defense allowing foes to hit 49% from the field. Their 3-point percentage D is worse yet as they rank 29th. Phoenix can take advantage of that weakness, especially from beyond the arc where they shoot 38.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. Defensively the Suns hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting as they allow 46.9% which is 11th best in the league. The Raptors shoot just 45.3% overall which ranks 28th. This is a great spot to buy low with Phoenix at home minus a short number.You can lay the 1.5 if you must but consider money line -125 if you can. |
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01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover. |
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01-30-23 | Blues v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now. St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis. Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday! That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long! Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts. But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL. Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling. Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts. The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games. The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia. Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss. To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here. Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break. St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up. Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line. Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times! The two wins this season have both been blowouts! The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece. St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 12 m | Show |
#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion. |