Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-15-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in Boston on the 12th and will look to rebound against the Jazz back at home. Utah is off a road win in Indianapolis on the 13th but are just 3-6 SU their last nine games. Memphis is 23-5 SU at home with the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on their home court at +10.5PPG. When coming off a loss and playing at home the Grizz are 6-3 SU and ATS. Utah is 11-18 SU for the season on the road with a negative differential of -2.4PPG. The last time these two teams met on this court was back on Jan 8th with the Grizzlies winning 123-118 as a -5.5-point favorite. Memphis played that game without Ja Morant or Steven Adams and Utah had Mike Conley. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and with the Grizzlies +/- at home we like them to win and do so by their average MOV. Lay it! |
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02-15-23 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Alabama vs Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the very best defensive teams in the nation are facing off in this one. They rank #1 and #2 nationally in eFG% defense and 3 point % defense. The Vols are the top defensive efficiency team in the country allowing 0.86 points per possession and Bama ranks 6th nationally in that stat allowing 0.90 PPP. They key to this total staying under will be tempo. The Tide want to play fast and they thrive in an up tempo game. We don’t think there is any way the Vols allow this to be an up & down game. There best chance and winning this one is to slow the pace which they prefer anyway ranking 14th (dead last) in the SEC on adjusted tempo (conference games). We’ve always said it’s tough to speed up a team that likes to play slow, especially at home. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but neither is a great shooting team from deep with Bama ranking 125th in the country in 3 point % and Tennessee ranks 231st. On top of that, as we mentioned, these are the 2 best 3 point defensive teams in the nation so we don’t expect either to go crazy from deep. The Vols are allowing just 53 PPG at home this season and their games at home are averaging 130 total points. The Tide are averaging an impressive 88 PPG at home this season, however their point total on the road drops significantly to 76 PPG. Now the face the most efficient defense in the country and in their 9 road games thus far the average rank of the defenses they’ve faced is 81st and they’ve averaged 144 total points in those games. Alabama coach Oats and Tennessee coach Barnes have faced off 4 times since Oats to the Bama job in 2019. All 4 games have gone Under the total and none have topped 141 total points. Going back further, these 2 SEC rivals have gone Under the total 9 straight times. We’ll call for another Under tonight. |
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02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* LA Clippers -8 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Clippers catch a break here having been off since Feb 10th, a home game and loss to Milwaukee. The Warriors on the other hand are coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. That typically means “load management” for a few Warrior starters. Golden State is the worst spread record team in the NBA on the road this season with an 8-19 ATS record and own a negative average point differential of -7.8PPG. As we mentioned the Clippers are rested which means Leonard and George will be in the lineup. When playing with 3 days rest the Clippers are 26-7-1 ATS their last 34. Los Angeles is playing with same season revenge here too as they lost in Golden State by 17-points earlier this season. Scheduling is a key factor here so we’ll lay the points with the Clippers. |
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02-14-23 | Panthers v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
#19/20 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - The Panthers, prior to a 2-1 SO win at Minnesota last night, 9 of last 10 games had all totaled at least 7 goals. Florida, yesterday's game notwithstanding, has struggled to stop the opposition for quite some time now. Consider last night's game to be a bit of an aberration. Though Sergei Bobrovksy was in goal last night and has been better of late, he is unlikely to start here in the 2nd game of a B2B. If Bobrovsky did start, note that he has allowed at least 4 goals both times he has started the 2nd night of a B2B this season. The more likely starter would be Spencer Knight and he will be rusty after a long layoff plus he has mostly struggled this season. The Panthers, prior to the 2-1 win over the Wild last night, had allowed at least 4 goals in 11 of last 15 road games. The strength of Florida however is their potent attack. The Panthers have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 15 games. This battle with the Blues should see plenty of goals as St Louis had 3 guys come back in most recent game and that was a 6-5 win and they are finally getting healthy again. Similar to Florida however, the Blues continue to struggle to slow down the opposition. St Louis has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 straight games and 8 of last 10 games. In those 10 games, the Blues have allowed an average of 4 goals per game. When these teams met earlier this season in Florida the game totaled 9 goals in a 5-4 thriller! With the way these teams are trending now, this one has the makings of another shootout. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +2.5 over Creighton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Jays are at the top end of their market right now having won 8 straight games. They are coming off a huge home win over UConn, a game they had been waiting for since losing to the Huskies earlier this season. Now they are on the road facing a Friars team who has lost 2 of their last 3 games, both on the road, including a 5 point setback on St Johns on Saturday as a 4.5 point favorite. They get a shot at revenge here after losing @ Creighton in mid January, a game that started the Blue Jays current winning streak. In that game, Creighton was favored by 7 and topped Providence by 5 points shooting 48% from the field compared to 38% for the Friars. Providence also played that game without one of the top players and starting PG Jared Bynum who is back healthy now and has averaged 23 PPG since his return 5 games ago. Providence is 13-0 at home this season averaging 83 PPG while allowing 66 PPG. The Jays are 3-3 on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Butler and Georgetown, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big East. Their other road win was @ Seton Hall where Creighton shot a ridiculous 61% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. Based on the previous line between these 2 @ Creighton, the Friars should be a slight favorite here but they are getting points. Take the value with Providence at home. |
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02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +8 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - This line is clearly inflated with the hype surrounding Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic joining forces in Dallas. I find it very interesting Kyrie has played with some of the biggest names in the game (LeBron, KD, Tatum, Harden) and yet is never happy? I think in the end this will be another failed experiment in Dallas as you have two ball-dominant point guards and sharing the rock isn’t a priority for either. In any case, the Mavericks will take time to adjust and solidify rotations and it’s not like they were a great favorite this season. The Mavs are 12-25-2 ATS as a chalk this season with a +/- in those games of +3.6PPG (not enough to cover here). Minnesota has a winning spread record as a dog at 16-14 ATS with an average differential of minus -2.2PPG. The Wolves brought in vet point guard Michael Conley which should pay immediate dividends as his pick and roll skills are much better than since departed Russell. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games with some impressive wins over some of the better teams in the West. Minnesota won earlier this season at home by 10-points, then played the Mavs tough in Dallas in a 5-point loss. We expect another close game here. |
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02-13-23 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Arizona Coyotes Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Nashville is off an OT win but still only 6-5 last 11 games. The big key about the 6 wins, however, is the fact that 4 of the 6 wins were by just a single goal. That means that only twice in last 11 games have the Predators recorded a win by more than a 1-goal margin. Here the Preds are hosting a Coyotes team that has been ultra competitive of late so there is a lot of line value here with the +1.5 goals. Arizona enters this game 3-1-3 last 7 games. Yes, 3 of last 4 losses have been in OT or SO so they were 1 goal defeats. Only once in last seven games have the Coyotes been beaten by more than a 1-goal margin. This should be another ultra-competitive game and we will not pass up on the line value with the big underdog in this match-up. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Arizona is the value play here. |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL +5.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - This line is about 3 points too high according to our power ratings. The Canes sit ahead of UNC in the ACC standings with an 11-4 record (UNC is 8-6) and even their losses have come down to the wire. Miami’s 4 conference losses have come by a combined 13 points with none by more than 6. The Heels are 6-1 in ACC play at home, however they’ve played a very easy slate of teams at the Dean Dome. They’ve faced 1 team at home in conference play currently ranked inside the top 60 per KenPom and that was a loss vs Pitt (ranked 58th). Now they face the best team they’ve seen at home this entire season. The Canes are the much better shooting team in this match up. They rank #1 in the ACC (conference games) in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%. On top of that they are hitting 79% of their FT’s in ACC play. UNC ranks dead last in the league in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. Miami has a solid edge in the backcourt with Wong & Pack who combine to average 29 PPG while shooting 38% and 40% from 3’s respectively. They should have a field day vs Carolina’s defense that ranks 155th guarding the arc. The Canes have shown they can knock off the best in the ACC with wins vs Virginia and Duke. UNC is 0-4 this season vs the top tier teams in the conference (UVA, Duke, Miami, and Pitt). Too many points here as even if the Heels are able to pull of this home win, we anticipate a close game. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 245 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same. |
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02-12-23 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 1 PM ET - We like the Grizzlies plus the points in this NBA showdown. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA but Memphis is a team that can certainly come out of the West. The Grizzlies have had some ups and downs with players missing with injuries but have put together two strong games in a row beating Chicago and Minnesota. Going into the trade deadline there were rumors the Grizzlies were active, but now that everyone knows they are staying in Memphis they can relax and play. The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries to starters Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, which is significant when you’re trying to stop Ja Morant. Memphis and Boston rank 2nd and 5th in defensive efficiency so they are essentially even. Boston has a much better overall offensive efficiency but Memphis can get some easy opportunities with their transition game which is the 3rd best in the league. Boston is also reliant on their 3-points shooting but the Grizzlies are solid in defending the arc. The line on this game is set this low for a reason and looks like a trap. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
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02-12-23 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 137 | Top | 62-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst teams in the Big 10 when it comes to offensive efficiency. MSU ranks 11th in the conference (league games) averaging 0.99 points per possession and OSU is 9th at 1.02 PPP. Sparty averages just 65 PPG in conference play and the Buckeyes put up only 68 PPG. OSU has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their offense is in a free fall right now. Their conference numbers are a bit skewed due to their 93 points outburst vs Iowa (the fastest paced team and worst defensive team in the league) but outside of that, the Bucks have topped 70 points just two other times in Big 10 play. Over their last 5 outings Ohio State is averaging 64 PPG on 42% shooting and an abysmal 26% from beyond the arc. Now facing an MSU defense that leads the Big 10 in 3-point defense and is in the top 4 in FG% allowed and points allowed, we look for another struggle from the OSU offense. The Buckeyes defense is middle of the pack in the Big 10 in FG% and 3 point % allowed but they should look better than that today vs an MSU offense the just isn’t very good. The Spartans are averaging just 64 PPG on the road this year and in their last 5 games they are putting up only 62 PPG. They have topped 70 points just ONCE in Big 10 play and that was vs Nebraska. MSU has had only 2 of their 13 conference games have 140 total points this season and those games were vs Indiana & Illinois. Just 4 of OSU’s 13 Big 10 games have topped 140 total points. We have this total set in the low 130’s with our power ratings so we like the value on the Under here. We don’t expect either team to reach 70 and Under is the play. |
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02-11-23 | Pacers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +5 at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - One negative here is scheduling as the Pacers just played last night at home versus the Suns and lost. But, Indiana is 7-4 SU this season when playing without rest this season and they kept all of the starters minutes to under 30. Washington beat Charlotte at home as a -3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. If the Wizards were just favored by -3.5 versus Charlotte, why are they -5 versus a better Indiana team? Washington is 13-12 SU at home this season with an average point differential of -0.7PPG which is 26th in the NBA. As a home favorite, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS, minus -0.4PPG. Indiana is a respectable 17-14 ATS when coming off a loss this season, 3-1 in their last four. Our model has Washington favored by -2.5 points here so let’s grab the value with Indiana |
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02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Cyclones have been night and day when it comes to home vs away games in conference play this season. Overall for the season ISU is 12-0 SU at home and just 2-6 on the road. In Big 12 play they are 5-0 at home and 2-5 on the road. We’re catching them in a great spot as well coming off a road loss @ West Virginia on Wednesday night (we were on WVU). This line is short in our opinion because it looks like Oklahoma State is on a great roll winning 6 of their last 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games have been at home and their 1 road win during that stretch was vs a free falling Oklahoma team that has lost 6 straight conference games and is only 2-9 in Big 12 play. The fact is, OSU has lost every other Big 12 road game (1-4 SU on the road) besides their win at Oklahoma. Iowa State has been dominant at home as we mentioned. Of their 12 home wins, 11 have come by double digits. Many of those wins coming vs top tier Big 12 teams as they beat Kansas by 15, Baylor by 15, and Texas by 11, all better teams than Oklahoma State. They are averaging 75 PPG at home while their defense has been stifling at Hilton Coliseum allowing just 53 PPG on 38% shooting and 28% from beyond the arc. We anticipate the OSU offense, who averages just 0.96 points per possession in Big 12 play (8th) to have all kinds of problems scoring in this one. When these 2 met in late January in Stillwater, the Cowboys made 7 more three pointers and 9 more FT’s in the game yet only won by 2 points. That’s a 30 point edge from beyond the arc + FT’s made and ISU still had a shot to win the game. In fact, ISU led for much of that game with their largest lead being 16 points while OSU largest lead at home in that game was just 3 points. Despite these 2 teams having similar Big 12 records (ISU 7-4 / OSU 6-5) the Cyclones have been the superior team by a decent margin in conference play. Iowa State is +10 points per 100 possessions (efficiency margin) in league play while Oklahoma State is dead even in that statistic. In fact, ISU leads the Big 12 in efficiency margin which tells us they are better than their 7-4 conference record. The Cowboys are 8th in the conference in that stat telling us they aren’t as good as their 6-5 record. The Cowboys are also missing a key piece to their lineup with Avery Anderson (11 PPG / 3.5 rebounds / 3.5 assists) most likely out here and contributed 18 points in the first meeting with ISU. We expect the Cyclones to win this one by double digits. |
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02-11-23 | Connecticut v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#662 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over UConn, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Jays are on quite a roll right now winning 10 of their last 12 games since their 7’1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15 PPG & 7 RPG) returned to the line up after missing 3 games in mid December (all losses). Their only 2 setbacks during this impressive run were @ Xavier by 3 and @ UConn by 9. They’ve been waiting patiently for this rematch. The Huskies have done pretty much the opposite starting the season very well but falling off as of late. They won their first 14 games of the season, but since that UConn is 5-6 over their last 11 games. The Huskies are just 3-4 on the road in Big East play and their 3 wins away from home have come vs Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler, the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. In fact, those are the only 3 Big East teams that are not ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, a 69-60 UConn win, the stats were pretty even across the board with the one different being UConn made 8 three pointers (33% from deep) while Creighton made only 2 of 16 for 12%. That was an 18 point difference from beyond the arc in favor of the Huskies in that game. We expect those numbers from beyond the arc to be in favor of the Jays in this one as they shoot 36% from deep at home and make an average of 9.5 triples per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big East play this season (32-6 here their last 38 Big East games) and 5 of those wins have come by double digits. The Blue Jays average margin of victory at home in conference play this season is +16.5 PPG. We also expect them to have a big advantage at the FT line here. In the meeting @ UConn it was dead even (UConn 19 made FT’s to 18 for Creighton). The Huskies foul more than any other team in the Big East allowing 24% of their opponents points (conference games) to come from the stripe. Creighton fouls the least of any team in the league with only 14% of opponents points coming from the FT line. If we look at their Big East stats only (similar strength of schedule), Creighton is outscoring their opponents by +15 points per 100 possessions compared to UConn’s +7 points per 100 possessions. These 2 have faced each other only 6 times with Creighton winning 5 including 2-0 at home. Lay the small number with the Blue Jays on Saturday. |
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02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
#890 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State -2.5 over Northern Kentucky, Friday at 9 PM ET - Wright State struggled early in the Horizon League season but they’ve hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was by 2 points in OT on the road vs the top team in the conference, Youngstown State. The Raiders are now 8-7 in conference play taking on the 10-4 Northern Kentucky Norse who are overvalued in our opinion. The Norse have played 14 conference games with 9 of those coming at home. They have 3 road wins, however those have come vs the 3 worst teams in the Horizon League – UW Green Bay (ranked 361 per KenPom out of 363 teams), IUPUI (ranked 360) and Robert Morris (ranked 267). Those three teams have a combined record of 18-58 on the season so far from impressive road wins for NKU. This will be their 3rd straight road game which is far from ideal. While Northern is very solid defensively, the really struggle on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 250 in scoring, FG%, and 3 point %. They also make only 67% of their FT’s on the season. Wright State is very good offensively ranking 4th in the nation hitting over 50% of their shots on the season while averaging 81 PPG. At home that number jumps to 86 PPG while Northern KY only puts up 60 PPG on the road. We’re not sure NKU can keep up here and we’re laying a short number with Wright State. The Norse have a spread record of 7-16 (354th nationally) on the season while Wright has been a money maker as of late covering 5 straight. This is also a revenger after WSU lost at NKU earlier in the season. Take the Raiders at home on Friday Night. |
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02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET - These two teams don’t like each other after a very intense playoff series a year ago. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the home team having won and covered the three previous clashes. The last confrontation was recently in late January in Minnesota with the Wolves winning by 11-points. Memphis made a quiet move at the trade deadline but did bring in shooter Luke Kennard. Minnesota dumped De’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt and brought in vet Mike Connelly and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. For our purposes we doubt any of these players will be in the lineups tonight. Memphis had lost 3 straight games prior to beating Chicago by 15-points at home in their most recent game. Minnesota is coming off a 143-118 win at Utah, but prior to that game gave up 146 in a loss to the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the 2nd best +/- at home this season of +10.1PPG and an overall record of 22-5 SU. Dating back to the start of last season the Grizz are 47-26-1 ATS at home (best record in the NBA) with an average Margin of Victory of +9.6PPG. As a road dog the Wolves are an mediocre 37-35 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. Playing with quick revenge we like the Grizzlies big at home tonight. |
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02-09-23 | UAB +3 v. North Texas | Top | 79-82 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +3 over North Texas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We really like this UNT team, however we’re catching a very undervalued UAB getting points and we can’t pass that up. UAB is finally back at full strength with Jelly Walker back in the lineup after missing 5 straight games from mid January to early February. Walker is the Blazers leading scoring at 22 PPG and makes nearly 40% of this 3’s along with 85% of his FT’s. He’s been back for 2 games and UAB won both including topping the best team in the conference, FAU who is 22-2 on the season, by 9 points last Thursday night. These 2 met in late January and UAB was a 3 point favorite at home in that game despite Walker not playing. UNT pulled the upset shooting 48% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc, both well above their season averages. The fact is the Mean Green are not a great shooting team despite that effort @ UAB. They rank 349th nationally averaging just 62 PPG and outside the top 300 making only 41% of their shots on the season. They are also the slowest paced team in the nation and those 2 things combined make it tough for them to win games by a large margin. UNT is 19-5 on the season yet their average margin of victory is just +7 PPG. They have played 4 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 and lost 3 of those with their only win coming vs this undermanned UAB team who is now full strength. The 3 best teams in CUSA are FAU, UNT, and UAB. When the Blazers had Walker on the court they beat FAU handily at home as we mentioned and lost by just 2 points on the road. North Texas lost both of their games vs FAU this season. The Green have already lost 2 home games in conference play and 2 of their 4 home wins in the league have come by 4 points or fewer. The road team has won 9 in a row outright in this series & the dog has covered 5 straight. We think UAB has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points. |
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02-09-23 | Sharks v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -143 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#35/36 ASA PLAY ON 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers just hammered the Lightning 7-1 on home ice Monday night. This is a tough spot for the Florida defense and goaltending to be in top form (coming off huge win over in-state divisional rival TB) and they should allow plenty of goals again tonight as a result. However, they can take advantage of facing a Sharks team that gives up plenty of goals. San Jose enters this one having allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 20 games. Sharks have scored 4 goals per game last 4 games too! San Jose has been on a long stretch in which almost all their games have totaled at least 7 goals. Sharks 16 of 20 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Prior to a 4-3 OT win at Tampa Bay Tuesday, 6 of the last 8 Sharks games that did total at least 7 goals did reach the 8-goal mark. So yes this is a big total with 7 goals being the posted number in most books. However, don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Of course the goal is never a push with a bet but the fact is we get some added insurance here with 7 being a push rather than a loss. Given all the numbers involving these clubs once could easily argue the posted total should be 7.5 goals in this one! Taking a look at Florida's numbers entering this one, the Panthers have had 8 straight games total at least 7 goals and 6 of those 8 did total at least 8 goals! Look for yet another one to reach at least the 8-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 234 | Top | 122-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - This is an interesting O/U number considering the Blazers just face Milwaukee at home and that was 241. Golden State plays faster than Milwaukee, in fact they lead the league in possessions per game, they are more efficient offensively and worse defensively. Portland has scored 121 or more points in 4 of their last five games and now face a Warriors team that ranks 16th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.144 points per possession. Portland has the 5th best average points scored per possession in the NBA at 1.167PPP. The Blazers do play slower but they are also one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland allows 1.165PPP which ranks them 27th in the NBA. Golden State averages 113.5PPG on the season, but in their last ten games that number has risen to 117.1PPG. The Over has cashed 16 of the last 22 meetings in Portland and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight. |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home. |
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02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday. |
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02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 227 | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 NY Knicks @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - Our model is projecting a low scoring game here between two teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. The Magic are the 17th slowest team in the league, the Knicks are 28th slowest. That is one big part of the equation here as possessions will be limited. The Knicks own the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.162-points per possession but with the slower pace that translates to 114PPG. The Magic own the 25th worst OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.120PPP and average 111.4PPG. Defensively the Knicks hold the advantage with the 16th ranked efficiency unit, the Magic rank 22nd. These teams have met just once this season and they combined for 217 total points. If we go back 10 games that 217 is the highest combined total points scored in this series. The league average for a game this season is 228 total points scored and this does not set up to be an ‘average’ game. The Knicks rank 24th in overall team FG% and 23rd in 3PT%. Orlando isn’t much better, ranking 17th in FG% and 21st in 3PT%. Easy call with the UNDER in this one! |
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02-06-23 | Bucks v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers! |
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02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night. |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver. |
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02-05-23 | Fordham v. Richmond UNDER 135.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Fordham vs Richmond, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Fordham likes to play at a fast pace, however Richmond knows they can’t run with the Rams and would prefer a slower paced game. The Spiders are the 4th slowest paced team in the A10 and nationally they rank 284th in adjusted tempo. We anticipate Richmond getting the pace they want at home and slowing this game down. If that happens, we expect an easy Under as both defenses are far superior to the opposing offenses. The defenses in this match up rank 91st nationally (Fordham) and 108th (Richmond) in adjusted defensive efficiency while the offenses each rank outside the top 200. When it comes to conference play only, Fordham ranks 14th in offensive efficiency in the 15 team league and Richmond comes in at 13th in that category. They are also the 2 worst 3-point shooting teams in conference play with Fordham making only 27% of their triples and Richmond just 29%. Neither team is efficient on the offensive glass and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t look for many 2nd chance points. The Spiders have topped 64 points just once in their last 7 games and Fordham has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Rams offense has had some high scoring games over the last week, however those were vs fast paced teams in higher possession games. When they played the slower paced teams in the A10 they scored just 43 vs Davidson and 58 vs Dayton. We don’t see either team getting out of the 60’s in this game and we grab the Under. |
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02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-129 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm et - The Blazers are coming off a big road win last night in Washington. Chicago got a ‘W’ the previous night against the Hornets. When Portland has played without rest this season those games have finished with or averaged 227.8 total points. When playing on the road the Blazers score 109PPG and allow 112.2PPG. Chicago at home averages 114.6PPG and gives up 112.3PPG. The Blazers prefer a slower tempo ranking as the 7th slowest paced team in the league, the Bulls are 16th, slightly below average. Chicago has stayed Under this total in 5 of their last six games. In recent games against other similar Eastern Conference teams the Blazers have totaled 228 against Toronto and 200 versus Philly. With trade rumors swirling around the Bulls roster we aren’t sure how invested they’ll be in today’s game. Both have favored the Under this season with a combined 55-45-2 record. The play here is UNDER! |
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02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana. |
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02-04-23 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -120 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Money Line -120 over Virginia, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Hmm. What do we have here? A Virginia team currently ranked in the 3 top 10 with a 9-2 ACC record vs a Va Tech team that is unranked and just 3-8 in the league. And Va Tech is favored! That alone speaks volumes and we do understand why they are a slight favorite. The Cavs have played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC thus far. There are 5 teams in the ACC ranked outside the top 100 and Virginia has already faced 3 of them including Florida State twice. They’ve also faced Syracuse twice who is the next lowest rated team in the conference behind the 5 outside the top 100. The four highest rated teams in the ACC besides UVA are UNC, Duke, NC State, and Miami. The Cavs have played just 2 of their 11 conference games vs those teams and they are 1-2 in those games losing to Miami and beating UNC. Their win over the Heels comes with a big asterisk as UNC played without 2 of their key players in that game Bacot & Nance who combined to average 29 PPG and 17 RPG on the season and despite that UNC trailed by just 3 on the road with less than 40 seconds remaining in the game (lost by 7). Despite their 3-8 ACC record, Virginia Tech is rated in the top 55 in the nation. They are 13-9 overall but better than their record would indicate. 5 of their 8 conference losses have come by 4 points or less or in OT. The Hokies played 4 conference games without their top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor (43% from deep & 11 PPG), and lost all of those games. He’s back now and has scored 55 points in his last 3 games alone including wins over Duke & Syracuse. They are 10-2 at home this season but Cattoor was out of the line up for both losses, down to the wire games vs NC State and Clemson. These 2 met a few weeks ago @ UVA and the Cavs prevailed by 10 points hitting 51% from the field and making 10 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. Va Tech has won each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Virginia and we think they topple the Cavaliers again on Saturday. Last year was on a similar path start slow in conference play (2-7 through first 9 games) and then closing strong winning 9 of their final 11 before sweeping 4 games in the ACC tourney and winning that. This team is healthy and starting to play well. Take the Hokies on Saturday. |
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02-03-23 | Kent State v. Akron UNDER 133.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
#885/886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Kent State vs Akron, Friday at 9 PM ET - The 2 best teams in the MAC squaring off here in what we expect will be a defensive battle. These are the 2 top defensive teams in the conference ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Both are very good at creating turnovers defensively ranking 1st and 2nd in the MAC (both over 20% defensive TO rate) which will lead to some lost offensive possessions for each. Akron has allowed more than 70 points just one time in their 9 conference games. Kent has allowed more than 70 points just twice in their 8 MAC contests. These 2 lead the league in scoring defense and when it comes to pace, don’t expect and up and down game as Akron ranks 12th (dead last) in adjusted tempo in MAC play and Kent ranks 10th. Offensively neither is a great shooting team with each ranking outsited the top 200 in eFG% and both are below average from beyond the arc at 32% and 33%. Not only are these 2 the best teams in the league, this is a huge rivalry which has led to a number of low scoring games in this heated series. 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total and only 2 of the last 10 have topped 133 total points. These 2 have combined to play 40 games this season and only 15 have gone Over the total. Under is the play in this HUGE MAC game tonight. |
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02-03-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points. |
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02-02-23 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team. |
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02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home. |
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02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night. |
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02-01-23 | Nets +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 96-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak. |
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01-31-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 239 | Top | 115-124 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks offense is starting to click. Milwaukee has scored 130 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. In one of those games the Bucks put up 150 points against a Pistons team that allows 1.193-points per possession. Charlotte is nearly as bad defensively allowing 1.163PPP. The Hornets are better offensively when they have point guard LaMelo Ball on the court but they’re also worse defensively. Ball returned for the Hornets two games ago and Charlotte promptly won two straight against a pair of quality teams in the Bulls and Heat. Charlotte is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, Milwaukee is 12th so we can bet on a higher paced game. Milwaukee is scoring 127PPG over their last five games but also allowing 117PPG. When these two teams met earlier this month they combined for 247 total points and an easy Over. Our computers are calling for roughly the same result. |
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01-31-23 | Mississippi State v. South Carolina UNDER 128 | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here. |
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01-30-23 | Raptors v. Suns -125 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on: Phoenix Suns -125 vs Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Suns in this match up as they have found a rhythm in their last six games going 5-1 SU and ATS. Four of those recent wins have come at home, two of them came against quality teams in Memphis and Brooklyn. Toronto has won 3 of their last four games but haven’t been great on the road overall this season at 8-16 SU. With this line being as low as it is we essentially just need the Suns to win outright. In fact, instead of laying the 1.5 points here you can take the money line -125 which is what we suggest here. Is worth just a little extra juice. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG which is 9th best in the NBA. Toronto ranks 28th in overall field goal percentage defense allowing foes to hit 49% from the field. Their 3-point percentage D is worse yet as they rank 29th. Phoenix can take advantage of that weakness, especially from beyond the arc where they shoot 38.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. Defensively the Suns hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting as they allow 46.9% which is 11th best in the league. The Raptors shoot just 45.3% overall which ranks 28th. This is a great spot to buy low with Phoenix at home minus a short number.You can lay the 1.5 if you must but consider money line -125 if you can. |
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01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover. |
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01-30-23 | Blues v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now. St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis. Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday! That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long! Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts. But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL. Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling. Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts. The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games. The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia. Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss. To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here. Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break. St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up. Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line. Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times! The two wins this season have both been blowouts! The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece. St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 12 m | Show |
#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion. |
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01-29-23 | Rutgers +4 v. Iowa | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode. |
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01-28-23 | Kansas +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright. |
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01-28-23 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 226.5 NY Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets – 5:40 PM ET - This one should be a tight defensive battle with both teams struggling to score. New York is coming off a game against a similar team to the Nets in the Celtics. That game had 220 total points at the end of regulation. Brooklyn had been playing fantastic defense up until allowing Philly and Detroit to each score 130+ against them. Prior to the two games against the 76ers and Pistons the Nets had allowed an average of 108.6PPG to their previous 8 opponents. Both teams are average in scoring with the Nets averaging 114.3PPG, the Knicks are at 114.2. But both teams rank 6th and 11th in points allowed per game defensively. These two rivals have totaled 226 or less points in 6 straight meetings and 9 of the last ten. Bet the Under in this one. |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home. |
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01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here. |
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01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one. |
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01-26-23 | Mavs v. Suns -120 | Top | 99-95 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* PHOENIX SUNS -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - Current early line is -1.5 but the money line is available at -120 so that is the recommended value option here. We like the hot Suns here at home as they have won 4 straight games and are figuring out rotations around their injured players. Dallas is struggling right now with just 2 wins in their last eight games and have lost 2 in a row. The Mavs have not been good on the road this season with a 8-15 SU record and a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG. Even with their injuries the Suns are still 18-7 SU at home this season and plus +6PPG. The Mavs have the more efficient offense on the season ranking 5th compared to the Phoenix who ranks 14th. Defensively though it’s not as close with the Suns ranking 10th in DEFF compared to the Mavs who rank 26th or near the bottom of the league. In their last five games the Suns defense is allowing just 1.084-points per possession which is best in the NBA over that span of games. The home team has won both meetings this season and 8 of the last nine between these two teams. We like Phoenix at home in this one. |
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01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points. |
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01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number. |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 245.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 245.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Memphis is coming off a horrible defensive showing against the Kings who scored 133-points versus them so expect a much better effort here. Memphis doesn’t have great overall offensive efficiency numbers on the season and in their last five games they have dipped dramatically in OEFF top 1.127PPP which is 22nd in the NBA. When these same two teams met on Dec 25th the O/U for that game was 233 and they scored 232 total points. These two teams have a strong dislike for each other stemming from the playoffs last season, so we expect both to ratchet up their defenses tonight. |
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01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 130.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this match up. NW ranks 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Nebraska ranks 35th in that category. That Cats allow just 61 PPG (15th nationally) and the Huskers are giving up only 67 PPG. Both are slower paced as well ranking outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo. The offenses are another story in this match up. The rank 235th (Nebraska) and 340th (NW) in eFG% along with each ranking outside the top 275 in 3 point shooting percentage. The Huskers rank dead last in 3 point % in Big 10 play (29%) and Northwestern is 9th hitting only 33%. Overall in Big 10 play the Wildcats rank last in FG% and Nebraska steps in at 11th in that statistic. On top of that, the strength of each defense matches up very well with the opposing offense. Despite not shooting 3’s very well, NW scores over 34% of their points from deep (91st most nationally) but Nebraska is very good a defending the arc allowing 32% shooting by opponents. The Huskers, on the other hand, shoot very few 3’s scoring almost 58% of their points inside the arc and the Wildcats are #1 nationally in 2 point FG% allowed at 41%. These 2 have combined to play 38 games so far this season and the Under has a record of 26-11-1 in those games. Another Big 10 low scoring, grinder. |
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01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - This line has already dropped from the opening number of 231 but there is still enough value to be on the Under. Charlotte played last night in Utah and lost 102-120. When playing without rest this season their games have averaged 219 total points. Charlotte is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season averaging 1.102-points per possession. In fact, only the Rockets are worse in that category. The Bugs struggle to score with an offense that is 28th in overall FG% at 45.2% and worse yet when shooting from deep, ranking 30th in 3PT%. You may be surprised to know the Suns aren’t great offensively either. Phoenix is 20th in scoring at 112.6PPG and 22nd in overall FG%. They rank 14th in OEFF at 1.140PPP. This line is higher than it should be as a result of the Suns playing 5 straight games against either fast paced or high scoring teams. Charlotte is 10th in pace of play on the season but in their last five games they are playing much slower at 98.8 possessions per game. Both teams have multiple key injuries and will struggle offensively tonight. The Suns recently played Indiana at home, who is similar to the Hornets, and that game finished with 219 total points. We like the Suns to set a slow tempo tonight and a tired Charlotte team will oblige and play at their pace which leads to a low scoring game. |
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01-24-23 | Ducks v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
#67/68 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks continue to be involved in high-scoring games night after night. Anaheim has had 8 straight games total at least 7 goals! Not only that, 6 of the 8 totaled at least 8 goals! The Ducks are struggling with defense and goaltending too no matter who has been guarding the cage. Gibson and Stolarz have been the ones in goal throughout this stretch and Anaheim has conceded an average of 5 goals per game in the 8 games. The Ducks have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 road games and should give the Coyotes some trouble here. Arizona could start Connor Ingram in goal here but he has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of 14 games. The Coyotes are more likely to start Karel Vejmelka as he is off a strong start and has been getting the majority of work. One of the keys here is Vejmelka just does not usually come up with back to back strong starts. You have to go all the way back to mid-November to find the last time he had B2B starts in which he allowed less than 3 goals in each start. The Coyotes are coming off a big win over the Golden Knights - an upset victory - in which Vejmekla allowed just 1 goal. But in his 23 starts leading into that, he allowed at least 3 goals 20 times! In fact, before the strong start versus Vegas, Vejmelka allowed 3.5 goals per game in those 23 starts and 4 goals per game in 8 most recent starts. The Coyotes have allowed more goals than any of the 8 teams in the Central Division. The Ducks have allowed more goals than any team in the entire 32-team league! Arizona is not known for scoring well overall but on home ice they have averaged 3 goals last 14 games! Anaheim also not known for scoring but have been better of late on the road as noted above. Again the key here is you are talking about two teams that are known for surrendering plenty of scoring and the situation is ideal with Arizona off the big upset of Vegas. The Ducks will see plenty of open ice which will lead to scoring chances in this one but the Coyotes will battle back too with solid scoring opportunities of their own against a porous Anaheim defense. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night. |
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01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada. |
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01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available. |
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01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State. |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Points – Dallas vs San Francisco, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 45.5 in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game last week and the game landed on 45 for a very tough loss considering the circumstances. The game should have been much higher scoring with Dallas missing 4 XP’s along with Tampa throwing an interception in the endzone taking points off the board, and Tampa getting down to the Dallas 2 yard line (1st and goal from the 2) in the 2nd half and coming away with 0 points. Needless to say, that game should have gone Over the total. Now we are getting the total at nearly the same number but with a SF offense that has been much better all season when comparing them to the Tampa offense from last week. We like the value on the Over here. Dallas scored only 6 pts in their regular season finale vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. Then last week they scored 31 on a very solid Tampa defense. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 10 games and as we mentioned really should have been in the 50’s last week. The Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. They “held” Tampa to 14 points but as we stated the Bucs left a number of opportunities on the field. San Fran should have their way on offense on Sunday. Since Brock Purdy took over at QB back in early December, the Niners have averaged 35 PPG and been held under 30 points only ONCE in those 7 games. They have been held under 6.0 YPP only twice in those 7 games with Purdy under center. SF has gone Over the total in 6 of those 7 games and they’ve reached at least 50 total points in 5 of their last 7 games. The 49er defense has very good overall numbers, but they have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games with Arizona (with Blough & McSorley at QB) being the only team during that stretch that didn’t reach 20. SF has also played the 28th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and they are now facing a Dallas offense that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. Both of these teams have the ability to reach the mid to upper 20’s or even push into the 30’s here with the total set in the mid 40’s it’s simply too low. |
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01-22-23 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 134 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#835/836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – Maryland vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue’s defense has been lights out in conference play which is bad news for a struggling Maryland offense. The Boilers rank 18th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in scoring defense allowing just 60 PPG. In conference play, since their opener vs Minnesota way back on December 4th, the Boilers have since allowed only 58 PPG over their last 7 Big 10 games. Maryland offense has scored 67 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 conference games and in their 4 Big 10 road games the Terps have averaged just 55 PPG. The strength of Maryland’s team is definitely their defense as they rank 37th nationally in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Neither team shoots the 3 point all that well (both ranked outside the top 200 in 3 point %) and both are very good at defending the arc so we do not foresee many 3 balls today. Both also prevent their opponents from getting to the FT line very often, especially Purdue who ranks #1 nationally in that category. This has been a low scoring series with 6 of the last 7 meetings going Under the total and only 1 of the last 6 meetings has topped 123 total points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and they’ve combined for a record of 26-11 to the Under this season. Another low scoring, Big 10 grinder. |
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01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in altitude in Denver last night and also playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Pacers don’t play any defense as they give up 1.151-points per possession which is the 23rd worst number in the NBA. Indiana has allowed over 130 points in 3 of their last four games and 126+ in all four. The Suns are one of the slower paced teams in the league ranking 8th slowest but they are better than average or 14th in offensive efficiency (1.144PPP). Phoenix has slipped defensively themselves this season. Last year the Suns owned the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.074 points per possession. This season they currently sit 14th in the league allowing 1.139PPP. Phoenix just faced the Nets and the two teams combined for 229 total points. Brooklyn doesn’t play near as fast as the Pacers who average 101.3 possessions per game which is 5th fastest. This O/U number is barely higher than the league average and we expect it to get there with ease tonight. |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points. |
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01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date. |
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01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it. |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money! |
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01-19-23 | Red Wings v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights are off their first shutout loss of the season on Monday! Vegas will be responding big time here off that rare goose egg on home ice! The Golden Knights are home again for this one and will bounce back but they continue to have shaky goaltending. Thompson has allowed 3.6 gpg in his last 5 home appearances and has given up at least 3 goals in all 5 of those. Hill's last 6 appearances in the crease featured two good ones but in the other 4 he allowed 11 goals on just 60 shots! No matter which goalie goes tonight, the Red Wings should enjoy some success. Detroit has scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 games! Like Vegas, the issue for the Red Wings has been allowing too many goals no matter who is in goal. So we are not overly concerned with who is in goal here because Detroit has given up 4 goals per game last 15 games but we will mention Husso is the expected netminder here. Husso has had one good outing in his last 10 appearances. In the other 9, Husso has allowed 39 goals for an average of 4.33 goals per game! The goalie struggles of both Husso and Hellberg are a big reason that 9 of last 14 Red Wings games have totaled at least 7 goals. Those games have averaged about 8 goals apiece. Considering all the above plus a fired up Vegas team that will be relentless in the attacking zone off a home shutout loss, you have the ideal situation for plenty of goals in this one. Vegas scores well at home but can not stop Detroit either and that leads to a solid win for us here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
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01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here. |
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01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
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01-17-23 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - We can’t help but grab the extra value and the Under in this game as the line opened 233 on this game but now sits at the current bloated number. Scoring overall is up this season in the NBA at 228 total points per contest so you can see for yourself this number is much higher than that. These teams can score as they are the 2nd and 9th most efficient offenses in terms of points per possession. But both are also very slow paced ranking 21st and 23rd in possessions per game. When it comes to defensive efficiency they both are slightly lower than league average. Denver though has been significantly better on the defensive end of the court in their last five games allowing just 1.103-points per possession which ranks 3rd best. The Blazers road games this season have averaged 220.1 total points, while the Nuggets have games have averaged 228.4 total points. The Nuggets will do everything possible to slow down Damian Lillard who has scored 36 and 40 in his last two games. The Blazers have a physical center of their own in Nurkic who matches up well with Jokic for the Nuggets. We will bet the value here and play UNDER! |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in the NFL with TB rank 1st in seconds per play and Dallas 4th so we should be plenty of offensive snaps in this game. Dallas scored only 6 pts last week vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 9 games. Both of these defenses were regressing as the season wore on. TB’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 and the only team that didn’t reach 24 was Arizona with 3rd string QB McSorely starting. Besides their season opener vs Dallas, TB faced 3 other top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 34, 35, and 41 points in their other 3 vs top 10. In their first game vs Dallas they held the Boys to 3 points, however Dak was injured in that game and it was the first game of the season back in early September so not much can be taken from that in our opinion. Speaking of regression, the Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. The Tampa offense was hit or miss at times this season, however they played well down the stretch. In Brady’s last 6 quarters as QB they scored 47 points, 30 vs Carolina and then 17 in first half last week before the sat the starters. Weather will be cool in the 40’s but light winds and no precipitation. The projected final score based on the total is around Dallas 24, Tampa 21 and we think both teams will eclipse those numbers. Over is the play on Monday Night. |
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01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |
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01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 219 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Toronto Raptors @ NY Knicks, 3 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season with both games staying below the number with 220 and 219 total points being scored. The O/U numbers set by the oddsmakers on those two games were 216.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Historically, if we look back at the last nine meetings the most combined points scored by these two teams is 225. All other meetings have been less than that. We are expecting both defenses to dominate in this game as the Raptors allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA, the Knicks allow the 7th fewest. Both teams are also slower paced so we know it won’t be a high possession game. The Raptors are the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.2 possessions per game, the Knicks are 8th slowest at 97.8 possessions per game. The Knicks are coming off a road game yesterday and their games average 218.7PPG when they play without rest. Unless both teams shoot well above their season averages, we can’t see this game going Over the Total. |
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01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and we were on the Over in that game as well. It cashed with Minnesota winning 27-24 and it took a big 4th quarter to get there. However, watch that game from start to finish, both teams had a number of chances well before that to put points on the board and did not. NY threw 2 interceptions in the endzone in that game and there were 4 punts from right around midfield which usually kill an over but they were still able to top 50 points despite that. Both teams moved the ball well on offense as they combined to average around 6.0 YPP. Minnesota has been an Over machine when playing at home this season. 7 of their 9 home games have gone Over the total. The Vikes average 27 PPG at home this season and that includes their one stinker on offense where they scored 3 points vs Dallas back in November. They put up at least 23 points in every other home game and their average total points scored at home this season was 52.3. The Giants only put up 16 points last week vs Philly (one of the top defenses in the NFL) however they sat pretty much everyone including starting QB Jones. Prior to that they had scored at least 20 points in 6 straight games and they are facing a Minnesota defense ranks 31st in total defense and the Giants averaged 7 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. The Giants defense also ranks nearly the bottom of the league at 25th in total defense. We have a feeling both teams will have to keep up offensively here as we don’t see either defense stopping their opponent. Take the Over. |
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01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here. |
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01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 42 | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#141/142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These 2 already met twice and both games totaled just 34 points. Seattle scored ONE offensive TD in 2 games vs SF this year – the other TD was a block FG returned for a TD. Seattle averaged just 4.8 YPP in the 2 meetings and had less than 500 yards total in the 2 games combined. SF QB Purdy has been successful but the pressure really ramps up now making his first NFL playoff start. The Niners already run the ball 7th most in the NFL (rushing play %) and will lean on that heavily after rushing for 189 and 170 yards in their 2 meetings vs Seattle. If SF gets a lead as we suspect, the rushing attack will eat clock. The Seattle defense has played better down the stretch holding 3 of last 4 opponents to 21 points or less – KC was only one who topped that with just 24 point. We also think the Seahawks defense has a hidden advantage here as well facing QB Purdy for the 2nd time in a month. They will be the only defense that will have seen Purdy more than once. Lastly the weather in San Francisco doesn’t look great on Saturday with rain and winds of 20+ MPG which will benefit the defenses in this game. These two division rivals know each other very well and that leads to a low scoring game on Saturday. |
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01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
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01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. |
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01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
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01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league and getting to this number will be a tall task. In fact, the Cavaliers are THE slowest team in the NBA at 95.6 possessions per game. Portland isn’t much faster ranking 24th slowest. The Cavaliers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league as they allow just 1.098-points per possession. Portland ranks 17th in that category and give up 112PPG. Neither team is high scoring either as the Blazers average 112.1PPG (22nd) while the Cavs score 111.5PPG (26th). Portland has stayed Under in 4 straight games and 8 of their last nine. They recently played two similar teams to the Cavs in the Magic and Raptors and those games finished with 215 and 222 total points. Cleveland has played a stretch of games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams so this number is set higher than it should be. The Cavs are on a 6-0 Under streak when facing a team with a losing record. We will be on the UNDER here! |
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01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
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01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET - No matter the goalies who start here we like Colorado strongly in this spot. However, we will note that Petr Mrazek is the expected starter for the Blackhawks. He is 2-10-1 with a 4.19 GAA this season! As for the Avalanche, Pavel Francouz is back and healthy and served as the back-up Tuesday and is likely to start here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 5 of his last 7 starts. Even if Colorado does start Alexandar Georgiev here, he was showing signs of turning things around before his most recent start. In the 3 starts before that rough one he had allowed 3 or less goals in 3 straight starts. The key here is the team on team situation. Yes, the Blackhawks are off B2B wins but they lost 25 of 29 games prior to this 2-game winning streak. Also the win streak features a win over a bad Coyotes team and a win in overtime against a Flames team that fired 47 shots on goal and had a heavy shot edge. The point is we are not impressed. The Avalanche beat the Blackhawks 5-2 earlier this season. Though the Avs have endured some tough sledding on the ice recently, they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and this is the perfect "get right" game against an outclassed opponent. Chicago just will not be able to keep up here. The Blackhawks are averaging only 1.8 goals scored per game over the last 30 games! Colorado averages 3 goals per game and this is still a team capable of "pouring it on" against weaker foes. This one should end similarly to their 5-2 meeting earlier this season as Avalanche are angry about rallying to tie their most recent game only to allow a late power play goal in the eventual loss. That said, this Avs team is ready to roll tonight. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with the road favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
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01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 127 | Top | 65-62 | Push | 0 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#745/746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127 Points – Rutgers vs Northwestern, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Two of the top defensive teams not only in the Big 10 but in the country facing off here. Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 56 PPG (4th best nationally). Northwestern ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 58 PPG (13th in the country). Both rank in the 10 top in the nation in FG% allowed, each right around 37%. Both rank in the top 30 in forcing turnovers so we should have plenty of empty possessions in the half court as neither team likes the up tempo game. Now to the offenses. Neither team shoots the ball very well ranking 241st (Rutgers) and 337th (NW) in eFG%. Both teams rank outside the top 265 in three point % both hitting right around 31% for the season. Despite not shooting it very well, the Wildcats do like to shoot 3’s with 34% of their points coming from deep but that plays right into Rutgers defensive strength as they limit opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc (8th best nationally). On the other end, Rutgers takes very few 3’s but their scoring inside should be limited here vs a NW defense that allows opponents to make just 41% of their 2 point shots (2nd best nationally). This one sets up as a low scoring, Big 10 grinder and we’re on the Under. |
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01-11-23 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is lower than it should be according to our computers and we will bet accordingly. The Celtics are the 8th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season yet are coming off a game in which they went 11 of 41 from Deep or 27%. We expect them to have a better shooting night here, even against a Pelicans defense that defends the Arc well. The Pels may be without one of their best wing defenders in this game with Herb Jones questionable. New Orleans is coming off a 132-point game against the Wizards on Monday. Boston is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.5PPG while the Pelicans are 4th at 117.4. Both defenses are slightly better than average in terms of points allowed per game. Boston is 16th in the league in pace of play, New Orleans is 12th so we know we’ll get plenty of possessions from each team. These are essentially two top 10 teams in terms of team field goal percentage shooting so they don’t need a high possession game to put up points. This has been an Under series of late, but that changes tonight. Bet OVER! |
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01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
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01-10-23 | Flames v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 6* OVER 6 Goals - Calgary Flames at St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - It is very likely that Jacob Markstrom will get the start in goal here for the Flames tonight as he was the first one off the ice at this morning's skate. That is noteworthy as he was pulled from his most recent start after allowing 3 goals on just 11 shots. Markstrom has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Even if he does not start we would like the over here as the Blues, even without Vladimir Tarasenko, continue to score well. By the way, last time Markstrom faced the Blues they scored 5 times against him. The problem for St Louis, other than the recent rare strong start (shutout!) by Thomas Greiss in most recent game, is that #1 goalie Jordan Binnington has struggled badly. He was in the starters crease at this morning's skate so he is expected to get the start here. Binnington has conceded 17 times in his last 4 starts so the Flames should enjoy success here. If Greiss would happen to start (odds are slim of that) he was not impressive prior to the unlikely shutout versus Wild over the weekend. St Louis is off the 3-0 win but this followed 9 of 11 Blues games totaling at least 7 goals. The Flames are hungry here as they are off a loss and they have scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in regulation time of their last 7 road games! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points. |
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01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 49 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 49.5 Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM ET - It’s been a while since these two division rivals played a meaningful game this late in the season. Basically, both teams need to win to get in. The Lions could potentially be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier in the day, but the Lions have stated this will be an important game for them either way. These two teams are nearly mirror images when it comes to basic offensive and defensive statistics. They both will want to establish the running game as the Lions rank 11th in the league in RYPG at 129.7, the Packers are 13th at 125.6RYPG. Both defenses really struggle to stop the run with the Lions giving up 149YPG (29th worst), while the Packers are not much better at 26th allowing 141YPG. Both defenses allow over 5.0 yards per carry which is significantly more than the league average of 4.5-yards per rush. The Lions have put up some big scores in 3 of their last four games but the Bears, Panthers and Vikings rank 32nd, 22nd and 31st in points allowed per game. Green Bay gives up on average 21.9PPG. The Packers put up 41-points last week against the Vikings but 14-points came via a 100-yards kickoff return and a 75-yards interception. During their 4-game winning streak the Packers have not put up huge offensive numbers averaging 328YPG which is well below league average. Green Bay is the slowest paced team in the NFL as they run 1 play per every 30.12 seconds. Detroit is fast paced but with both teams focused on running the football the possessions will be down for both. |
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01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors, 3:40 PM ET - The Blazers are coming off several games against some of the league's fastest paced teams and 3 of the four games ended Under the total. In their two most recent games versus the Timberwolves and Pacers (6th and 7th in pace) they combined for 219 and 207 total points. Now they face a Toronto team that is the 5th slowest in the NBA at 97.1 possessions per game. The Raptors have played in two low scoring games in their last two with total points being scored of 220 and 205. Portland also prefers a lower possession game as they rank 7th slowest in pace of play at 97.7 possessions per game. Both teams are near average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings so with the lower pace we shouldn’t see this game being near the league average of 227.6 total points. The Blazers are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Toronto Under in 3 of the last four at home. |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go. |
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01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points. |
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01-06-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This will be a game where both teams get plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. On the season the Hornets are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA at 101 possessions per game. The bucks are 14th at 99.7. In their last five games though the Hornets are averaging 105.7 possessions per game (1st), the Bucks are at 102.7 (3rd most). Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as they give up over 118PPG. They have allowed 121 or more points in 6 of their last eight and 130+ twice. The Bucks defensive numbers are some of the best in the league but they’ve had a few hiccups lately allowing 118 or more in 5 of their last nine games. The Hornets get a large portion of their scoring on fast break opportunities and points in the paint. Surprisingly, the Bucks are average defensively in stopping fast break points and points in the paint. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible shooting night in Toronto and will find their stroke back at home where they shoot 47.6% on the season. Scoring has been trending up in the NBA and this number is within reach of an average NBA game which is 227.6 total points. |