Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops. |
|||||||
01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home. |
|||||||
01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits. |
|||||||
01-10-24 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -1.5 | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
#726 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -1 or -1.5 or Pick'em over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for the Buckeyes. They are coming off a loss @ Indiana on Saturday (we were on the Hoosiers) and this becomes a very important game for them with 3 of their last 4 games on the road. OSU is 2-2 in Big 10 play and can’t afford a home loss here. The Buckeyes are 8-1 at home this year with their only loss coming back in early November vs Texas A&M, a game that was close throughout with neither team leading by more than 7 points. The Badgers have been on a nice roll winning 10 of their last 11 and could be a bit overvalued on the road in this one. They’ve played only 3 true road games and lost 2 of those @ Providence and @ Arizona. They have not been on the road in over a month and now are about to get pulled out of their comfort zone. The Badgers have been outscored by an average of 68-75 in their road games while shooting under 40% from the field. OSU has won their home games by an average score of 78-62 while hitting 38% of their triples. That will be an issue here for a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t been very good defending the arc allowing almost 36% which is 282nd nationally. We like this Wisconsin team but we feel we’re catching them at the top of the market so to speak (overvalued) vs a desperate home team. At basically a pick-em type game, we’ll call for Ohio State to pick up the win on Wednesday. |
|||||||
01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win. |
|||||||
01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
|||||||
01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play. |
|||||||
01-06-24 | Old Dominion v. Arkansas State -9.5 | 75-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
#674 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas State -8 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Arkansas State is much better than their 5-9 record in our opinion. They’ve only played 3 home games this season and 11 road/neutral games. They’ve also played a tough schedule already facing Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama and Belmont all on the road. They finally played a home game on Thursday and rolled Georgia Southern 109-83. The Red Wolves are very good offensive team averaging 78 PPG and at home in their 3 games they’ve averaged over 90 PPG. That could be a problem for an ODU team that averages 70 PPG and was just smoked on the road on Thursday night 86-73 by Troy. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Troy led that game by 26 points midway through the 2nd half before ODU made a late run. The Monarchs were without their top 2 scorers in that game, Jenkins & Allette, who combined to average 30 PPG and we’re guessing they may not play here. Jenkins is dealing with a knee injury and Allette has an illness and just 2 days removed from their last game and on the road again it’s highly possible neither will play and if they do they won’t be close to 100%. Old Dominion is 0-5 SU this season in their 5 true road games with their defense allowing 82 PPG and nearly 40% for 3 point land in those roadies. Not a great recipe vs an Arkansas State team that hits almost 45% of their 3’s at home. This one could get ugly. Lay it with Arkie State. |
|||||||
01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode. |
|||||||
01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one. |
|||||||
01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home. |
|||||||
12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels |
|||||||
12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here. |
|||||||
12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Clemson pick-em over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Toronto - Both teams step into this game undefeated but we have a huge strength of schedule difference between these 2 teams thus far. The Tigers have faced the 50th most difficult slate so far and have 4 top 85 wins including impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh. In their win @ Bama the Tigers made 10 fewer FT’s (attempted 11 fewer) and STILL won by 8 points over a Crimson Tide team that came into the game on a 20 game home winning streak. TCU is also unbeaten but their SOS thus far ranks 362nd which is the easiest slate so far in the entire country. The Horned Frogs haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 175 while Clemson has played only 1 team ranked outside the top 175. Every opponent TCU has faced is currently ranked 270th or lower with the exception of Georgetown who ranks 176th and is the 2nd worst team in the Big East ahead of only DePaul. In their game @ Georgetown, TCU’s only game away from home this season, they barely topped the Hoyas 84-83. Both of these teams have shot the ball very well this season (both in the top 25 in eFG%), the problem is TCU has faced FIVE defenses (7 games played this season) vs teams ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and not a single defense ranked higher than 225th. Meanwhile, Clemson has just played 3 straight teams with defensive efficiency ranks inside the top 100. Despite their weak slate, TCU has struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.2% (267th nationally) and Clemson has hit 41% of their triples this season (7th nationally). The Tigers rarely turn the ball over (36th nationally) and are very good on the defensive boards (27th nationally) which takes away TCU’s strengths of creating turnovers and offensive rebounding. Clemson’s tough schedule has prepared them for this moment while TCU is stepping WAY up in class compared to their previous opponents. Clemson wins this one. |
|||||||
12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
|||||||
12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | George Mason v. Toledo -3.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toledo -3.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for a solid Toledo team, coming off 3 straight losses, and finally back at home where they normally do damage. The Rockets are one of the top few programs in the MAC with 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons and a 77-28 SU record since the start of the 2021 season. At home they’re nearly unbeatable with a 42-4 SU their last 46 home games. The Rockets have played a very tough schedule to date (77th SOS) and they have lost 3 straight, all to top 75 teams on a neutral court, making this home game very important. Those 3 losses came by 2, 6, and 8 points and they have now had a full week off to stew about their losses and make corrections heading into this home game vs George Mason. The Patriots step into this game with a 6-1 record but are overvalued due to their poor strength of schedule (319th). Four of their seven opponents so far this season are currently ranked outside the top 200 and they have yet to play a true road game. George Mason did play 2 neutral site games losing to Charlotte by 5 and barely getting by South Dakota State by 2 points, both teams ranked lower than this Toledo team per KenPom. The Patriots had a solid 20-13 season last year but they had to replace much of their roster with only 1 starter and 26% of their minutes returning this season. On top of that HC English moved on and is now the head man at Providence and he took 2 of Mason’s top players with him. This is a rematch from last year when George Mason pulled the upset at home as a 3 point dog hitting 51% of their shots in the process. Now we’re getting Toledo at home, at basically the same number, in a perfect situation. Lay the small spread here with the Rockets at home. |
|||||||
12-01-23 | North Dakota v. CS-Fullerton -4.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4.5 v. Samford | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points. |
|||||||
11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset. |
|||||||
11-27-23 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here. |
|||||||
11-22-23 | East Tennessee State v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite. They should be extra motivated after that loss. They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team. ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points. The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler. This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant. Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season. Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season. We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State. They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year. CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home. The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record. CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday. |
|||||||
11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Detroit -2.5 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. |
|||||||
11-17-23 | San Diego State v. St. Mary's +1 | Top | 79-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night. |
|||||||
11-16-23 | Wright State +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money. |
|||||||
11-15-23 | Utah Valley v. Charlotte -6.5 | 45-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
NOTE: This line jumped on us from a -3 range up to the -5.5 / -6.5 range quickly on us. This happened after we had written it up. So we will reduce our rating from a Top Game 10* to an 8* play but we still like this pick as you can see in our ORIGINAL analysis below: #690 ASA PLAY ON 8* Charlotte (-) over Utah Valley, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value with Charlotte laying on 3 points at home. For comparison’s sake Utah Valley played @ Sam Houston State last week and they were an 8 point underdog. Now they are only +3 vs a Charlotte team that we rate very close to Sam Houston. The reason this line is lower is because UVU upset Sam Houston in OT while Charlotte is coming off a loss as an underdog to Liberty who we have rated as the top team in Conference USA so not a surprise. Let’s not forget in Utah Valley's first game of the season they struggled with Carroll College of Montana winning by only 8 points despite making 10 more FT’s and 4 more 3 pointers. UVU had a great season last year but lost everyone of note. They don’t return a single starter and only 3% of their minutes played from a year ago. They have a new head coach and are in rebuild mode. Here we get Charlotte, who has won 13 of their last 17 home games, off a loss which we like. The 49ers had a very good season last year with a 22-14 record capped off by winning the post-season CBI tournament. They return some key components to that team and our power ratings have them closer to a 5.5 or 6 point favorite in this one. Charlotte is one of the slowest paced teams in the country which could be a problem for UVU who loves to play up tempo and was right at home vs Sam Houston State who also plays an up and down game. The 49ers were a very good shooting team last year ranking in the top 20 nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 65 after 2 games this season. They’ve also made almost 81% of their FT’s this season. Utah Valley has been terrible from deep making only 22% of their 3’s through the first 2 games and they’ve made only 62% of their FT’s. Not a recipe for success on the road. Take Charlotte here. |
|||||||
11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 v. UTEP | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion. |
|||||||
03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game. |
|||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here. |
|||||||
03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away. |
|||||||
03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Charlotte | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin. |
|||||||
03-19-23 | Creighton +1.5 v. Baylor | Top | 85-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call. |
|||||||
03-19-23 | Liberty v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday. |
|||||||
03-18-23 | Duke -3 v. Tennessee | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play. |
|||||||
03-17-23 | Arizona State v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU. |
|||||||
03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - C of C will be a very popular underdog play on Thursday as they step into this game with a 31-3 record. That’s an impressive run for sure, however the Cougars have played a very easy schedule this season – ranked 305th strength of schedule. They have played ONE top 100 team since late November and they lost that game at home vs Hofstra. The Cougs didn’t waltz through their conference tourney erasing a 2nd half deficits in both games to win close vs UNC Wilmington and Towson. San Diego State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Meanwhile, SDSU has played the 34th most difficult schedule this season facing 20 opponents currently ranked in the top 100 per KenPom. The Aztecs were 11-6 vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents this season while C of C was 2-1. The Cougars are a deep team that rotates 10 players to wear opponents down and they shoot a bunch of 3’s (37% of their points come from beyond the arc – 28th nationally). The problem here is, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team (210th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they won’t be able to wear down a deep and talented Aztec team (30th in bench minutes). SDSU is also a fantastic defense ranked 10th in the country in efficiency and 7th in 3 point FG% allowing opponents only 29% from deep. By comparison, the Cougs have ONE defense ranked in the top 100 in their conference, the Colonial. That was UNCW who ranks 97th and played C of C in the conference championship game and held them to 0.98 PPP and just 23% from deep in a very close Cougar win. If we look at the KenPom ratings, C of C would rank 6th in the MWC, a conference San Diego State won by 2 full games. The conference records of these 2 teams was almost identical despite playing in much tougher league. SDSU finished 18-3 in the Mountain West (6th best conference) and College of Charleston finished 19-2 in the Colonial (26th best conference) – conference tournament wins included. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Aztecs had a +20.2 PPP margin this season while the Cougars were +11.8. We like the value with San Diego State vs the popular underdog. |
|||||||
03-15-23 | UCF +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 55 m | Show |
#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points. |
|||||||
03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#669 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M CC -3.5 over SE Missouri State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We see this as a potential mismatch in Tuesday’s NCAA tourney play in game. Texas A&M CC was here last year and lost to Texas Southern so they are not simply happy to be here. They expected to be back and are set on winning this game. The Islanders are very experienced returning all 5 starters from last year’s game that lost in the play in round. That group has an overall record of 46-22 the last 2 years. They did lose one of their key players, Terrion Murdix, in their conference championship game last week and he is out for the season. He’s a very well liked teammate and we expect the others to rally around this injury and play with a little extra on Tuesday. They were the best team in the Southland Conference all season long finishing in first place in the regular season, winning the conference tourney to get here and ending the year #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Southland Championship game was last Wednesday so the Islanders have had a week off to get ready for this one. SE Missouri State, on the other hand, just played 4 consecutive games (Wed – Sat) in the OVC tourney in Indiana and now with only 2 days off they are on the road and at it again. Unlike A&M, this team was not the best in their conference this season. They finished tied for 3rd place with 2 other teams and the Redhawks were barely positive in their PPP margin in league play this season. This is also a program that is not used to being in this situation as their last winning record was way back in 2014. They haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2000 and we’re guessing they might be just happy to be here as it was not expected this season. TAMU-CC is a very good offensive team averaging 81 PPG and they rank 38th nationally in 3 point %. They are facing a defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 77 PPG (337th nationally). We look for a win & cover for the Islanders on Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -4.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Quick revenge here for Bama. This is who they wanted in the finals and this is who they got. In the season finale A&M played host to Bama and we were on the Aggies in that game. It was a perfect storm to grab the home team as the Tide had just beaten arch rival Auburn to clinch the SEC title and now were on the road in a somewhat meaningless game. We were actually impressed with Bama’s resolve in that game (considering the circumstances) as they fell behind by 15 and battled back to take the lead with under 5 minutes remaining in the game before ultimately losing 67-61. The difference in that game? Free Throws! A&M made 27 of their 28 FT’s in that game while the Crimson Tide made only 10 freebies. Despite the huge discrepancy from the line and the game being on the road, Alabama was able to keep it close down the stretch. The controlled the boards in that game (+10) and gathered 35% of their misses to give them a number of 2nd chance opportunities. Alabama is easily the best team in the SEC and probably the best team in the country when they actually show up and play like they are capable. They should do that today with the A&M loss still fresh in their minds (9 days ago). They rank #1 in the SEC in offensive & defensive efficiency as well as offensive & defensive eFG%. Bama has 5 losses on the season with 4 of those coming vs teams inside KenPom’s top 20. The Aggies have 8 losses, all vs teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 20 with 2 coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Alabama is simply the better team and very motivated here. Lay it. |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -6.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on OSU 2 days ago vs Iowa and picked up a nice win. Yesterday we switched gears and took Michigan State over Ohio State and came up short. MSU, the top 3 point shooting team in the Big 10, made 3 of 16 from deep for just 19%. The Buckeyes made 10 three pointers and hit 53% from beyond the arc (+21 points from 3) and that was the difference. The Buckeyes have been a bit fortunate with their opponents missing from the arc in this tourney. Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU combined to make only 11 of their 55 three point attempts (20%). OSU played their game yesterday without their leading scorer Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG) who tweaked his knee vs Iowa the day before. The OSU medical staff is doing some tests on Friday night to decide if he’s OK to go on Saturday. The Bucks rose to the occasion and played very well without their top player which often happens in the first game dealing with the injury. If Sensabaugh can’t play Saturday it will make it really tough on this team. Even if he can go and isn’t 100%, this is a very difficult spot for the streaking Buckeyes. They are playing their 4th game in 4 days while Purdue is playing just their 2nd. Down another player yesterday, the Buckeyes played 4 of their 5 starters 35+ minutes. Now they face a Purdue team that has been the best in the Big 10 all season long. The Boilers are a huge team facing a fatigued OSU squad that isn’t very deep up front after losing top big man Zed Key in mid February. Purdue should definitely control the boards in this game (#1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Big 10) and that should lead to a number of extra possessions. In their match up in late February, a 27 points Purdue win, the Boilers crushed OSU on the boards (+23) and they gathered more than 45% of their misses in both games. PU also fouls less than any team in the league and gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference. Unless the Buckeyes shoot lights out again, we just don’t see them hanging in this one. Lay it with the Boilermakers as they pull away in the 2nd half. |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Duke -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met back in February in Miami we were all over the Canes and picked up an EASY win. Miami was a 3 point favorite in that game and rolled the Devils 81-59 in an embarrassing performance by Duke. It was a perfect spot to fade the Blue Devils as they had just beaten UNC at home 2 days earlier and had to go on the road and play another game just 48 hours later. Duke followed that up with a spirited performance in an OT loss @ UVA and have since won 7 in a row. This team is peaking right now and we’re not so sure about Miami. Over their last 5 games Duke is winning by an average score of 78-64 hitting 50% of their shots while holding their opponents to 38% shooting. Yesterday they absolutely obliterated a very solid Pitt team by the final score of 96-69! Because of that they were able to spread their minutes out with 15 guys logging minutes and 10 of those playing double digit minutes. Meanwhile Miami went to the wire with Wake before winning 74-72. That’s been a theme for the Hurricanes down the stretch as they’ve been fortunate to come out on top in a number of games. In their last 4 games they held on to beat Va Tech by 6, lost to Florida State (2nd lowest rated team in the ACC), beat Pitt by 2, and then topped WF by 2. The Miami defense has allowed 78 PPG and 48% shooting by their opponents over the last 5 games. This game is in Greensboro so it will be a HEAVY Duke crowd. Two teams heading in opposite directions here and one should be ultra motivated after getting destroyed in their most recent meeting. Lay the small number with Duke. |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - We were on OSU yesterday vs Iowa and we love the way the Buckeyes are playing right now. That being said, we feel this is where their run comes to an end. This is a really tough spot for OSU playing their 3rd straight day and 4th game in 7 days while MSU has been resting since Saturday. Speaking of last Saturday, Michigan State played host to the Buckeyes in their home finale and won 84-78. Sparty led that game by 9 at half and OSU got to within 3 for about 10 seconds in the 2nd half but never got closer than 5 beyond that. That was the 2nd meeting between these 2. In the first meeting @ Ohio State, the Spartans rolled to a 62-41 win. The Bucks have shot extremely well the first 2 games of this tournament hitting 52 of their 103 shot attempts for 50.5%. They’ve also made 42% of their 3 point attempts in those 2 games. We would expect facing a very solid and rested MSU defense (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) that tired legs will most likely bring those shooting percentages down quite a bit in this game. The Buckeyes have also benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents, especially from beyond the arc. In their opener Wisconsin made only 4 of 22 from 3 point land and yesterday Iowa was 4-17. That’s a combined 8 of 39 for only 20%. It’s not as if OSU has a fantastic 3 point defense as they rank 11th in the conference allowing almost 36%. Today they face the best 3 point shooting team in the Big 10 with MSU making 41.5% from deep in league play. With potential tired legs defensively, we expect the Spartans to have a number of open looks. This is also a Michigan State offense that is peaking down the stretch scoring 80 or more points in each of their last 4 games. This one might be close into the 2nd half but we look for MSU to pull away down the stretch as they take advantage of OSU’s fatigue. If Sparty needs to make FT’s to salt this one away, they are #1 in Big 10 play hitting 78.5% from the stripe. This is a small number to lay in this situation and we’ll take the Spartans. |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -3 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -3 over Rutgers, Thursday at 12 PM ET - A bubble showdown game here early on Thursday. Rutgers was all but in a month ago but the Knights have proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games with their only wins coming by 1 point vs Wisconsin and by 3 points vs PSU. Their offense has been non-existent scoring 60 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games and they are now officially the worst shooting team in the Big 10 (dead last in eFG%). Rutgers declined started when they lost key starter Mawot Mag (8 PPG & 5 RPG) who was one of the top defensive players. He is out for the season. This poor shooting team is facing a Michigan defense that has played very well down the stretch and the Wolverines now rank #1 in the Big 10 in eFG% defense. Offensively they are solid as well ranking 4th in the Big 10 in efficiency and they are 2nd in the league in scoring (conference games). Michigan enters this game of back to back tight OT losses on the road @ Illinois and @ Indiana. Prior to that they had won 6 of 8 and were very close to winning 8 of 10 had they been able to pull the upsets on the road vs top tier conference teams to close out the season. These 2 faced off @ Rutgers at the end of February and the Wolverines dominated in a 13 point win. They did so with one of their top players, Jett Howard, on the bench with an injury and he is now back and healthy. Michigan held Rutgers to just 45 points in that game on 0.74 PPP. They also had an advantage on the boards and fewer turnovers. Both of these teams need a win desperately to remain in consideration for the NCAA tourney and Michigan was the much better team over the last month or so. If they can win @ Rutgers, a very tough place to play, and win handily without one of the top scorers, they should do the same here. Lay the small number with the Wolverines. |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Stanford v. Utah | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah pick-em over Stanford, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like the Utes quite a bit heading into the Pac 12 tourney. We think they are undervalued after losing their last 5 games of the season. The fact is they haven’t been healthy down the stretch but they are at full strength for this game. Starting guards Madsen and Worster have missed a number of games down the stretch which has really affected this team. Madsen missed 7 in a row before returning for the season finale @ Colorado while Worster missed 2 straight vs UCLA & USC before coming back in that same game. The Utes lost that game running into a buzzsaw in Boulder which was Colorado’s home finale. Those 2 players combined for 24 points in their 69-60 loss @ CU to close out the season but the team shot poorly at just 33%. With 1 game at full strength under their belts, we look for a solid performance on Wednesday. Utah has a great defense. They rank 33rd nationally in defensive efficiency, 7th in eFG% defense, 17th in 3 point FG% defense, and 11th in 2 point FG% defense. Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense & 3 point FG% defense along with ranking 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. Offensively the Cardinal really rely in making 3 pointers offensive with 36% of their points coming from deep (2nd in conference play). We mentioned how good Utah’s 3 point defense is so that’s going to be a problem for Stanford. These 2 met once this year and Utah was at full strength and dominated that game which was @ Stanford. These 2 split their meeting this year with each winning on the opponent’s home court. Here the difference. In the first meeting @ Stanford, the Utes were at full strength and dominated for much of the game despite the 71-66 final score. Utah led by 16 with 8 minutes to go in the game. When the played in Utah, the Utes were without Madsen and lost a tight game despite shooting just 39% while the Cardinal lit it up at 53% from the field and 56% from 3 point land. Utah is the better team and they just need to win this one based on the spread. We’ll take it. |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON Notre Dame +7.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Irish had a rough season to say the least with a 3-17 Big East record. However, there have been signs of life down the stretch and they start a new season tonight. ND upset Pitt one week ago today in their home finale and then fell flat on Saturday @ Clemson. That was somewhat understandable as their game @ Clemson was pretty much meaningless as the Irish were already locked into the 14 seed while the Tigers were still fighting for a double bye. It’s one of the few games this year that Notre Dame was blown out. Despite their 17 losses, they were in most of their games and could have a much better record. 11 of their 17 conference losses came by 8 points or fewer and 5 of those were 1 possession games (lost by 3 or less). 5 of their last 7 losses down the stretch were close including losing to this Va Tech team by 6 points on February 11th. The FT disparity in that game was the difference with the Hokies making 20 FT’s to just 6 for the Irish. That was an aberration in our opinion as neither of these teams gets to the FT line all that often (ranked outside the top 330 in % of points from the charity stripe) and neither fouls very much (both in the top 50 nationally in % of points allowed from the FT line). Other than that key stat, there wasn’t anything else that stood out as a big advantage in that game for either team as most were fairly even. VT was far from stellar in the weak ACC this year finishing with a record of 8-12 in league play. They enter this tournament on a modest 2 game winning streak over FSU & Louisville, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. We’ll keep an eye on ND freshman guard JJ Starling, one of the top freshmen in the conference, as he’s missed a few games with a knee bruise. If he plays it’s a bonus as we like Notre Dame at this number whether he’s in or out. Take the points. |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Maryland v. Penn State -3.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We faded Maryland on the road earlier this week @ Ohio State and picked up a win and we’ll do it again today. The Terps stink on the road. No 2 ways around it. They have a grand total of 2 road wins this year and those came @ Minnesota, by far the worst team in the Big 10, and @ Louisville, by far the worst team in the ACC. Those 2 teams have combined record this year of 12-46! As expected based on their road record, the Terps key numbers drop off a cliff when they travel. At home their offense averages 1.15 points per possession and on the road they put up only 0.97 PPP. They average only 62 PPG on the road this season and if we throw out their game @ Minnesota, who has the worst defense in the Big 10, Maryland has been held under 60 points in 5 of their 7 conference roadies. PSU is playing their home finale and in must win mode. They are currently sitting just outside the NCAA field according to most analysts and can’t afford a home setback today. PSU has some momentum coming off an impressive road win @ Northwestern earlier this week. They also should have some extra incentive in this home finale as they lost their most recent home game, 59-56, vs Rutgers and the Nittany Lions blew a 19 point 2nd half lead in that one. Their offense has been exceptional this season at home averaging 78 PPG on 1.15 PPG and hitting over 40% of their 3’s. In their meeting a few weeks ago in Maryland, the Terps came away with a 74-68 win and in that game they made 18 FT’s to just 2 for PSU and it was still a tight game. This is just a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Connecticut v. Villanova +2.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova +2.5 over UConn, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nova is flying under the radar right now but they are playing as well as anyone in the Big East. The Cats have won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve pushed their Big East record to 10-9 after starting just 4-8. Their top player, Justin Moore, missed the first 20 games of the season and since he’s come back and gotten acclimated to his teammates, they’ve played very good basketball. When Nova faced UConn earlier this season, Moore was not yet in the lineup and they hung tight losing by 8 on the road. In that game the Huskies were +6 at the FT line and +15 from beyond the arc yet even with those big advantages it was just a 2 point game with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. UConn is very talented but they’ve been up & down this year. They are entering this one on a 4 game winning streak but they’ve only been a .500 team on the road. The Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 on the road, however those 3 wins came vs St Johns, DePaul, and Georgetown, the 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. The one solid team they played on the road during that stretch was Creighton and they lost that game. Prior to winning 3 of 4 on the road, Connecticut had lost 4 in a row away from home and they average 10 PPG fewer on the road this season. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in Big East play yet they have 7 conference losses. This game is expected to be close based on the spread so free throws could be key. We look for the host Wildcats to have a solid advantage at the stripe as they get their often with 20% of their points coming from freebies (78th nationally). UConn fouls more than any team in the conference with their opponents scoring 24% of their points from the stripe. On top of that, Villanova makes 83% of their FT’s as a team this season. We like the Wildcats to win their home finale and getting points is a bonus. |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M -1.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -1.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Crimson Tide have been trending down as of late. Lots of obvious distractions going on right now and last 3 games Bama has looked shaky at best and 2 of those games were at home Over their last 3 games they nearly lost @ South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. Bama won that game by 2 points in OT and despite making 10 more FT’s than the Gamecocks, it was tight throughout. Following that performance the Tide were forced to come from down double digits at home vs Arkansas in a 3 point win. Most recently, on Wednesday hosting Auburn, Bama trailed for most of game and came back from 17 down with under 10 minutes remaining and won in OT. How important is this game to Bama? They already clinched SEC title with their win over arch rival Auburn earlier this week. This is pretty much a meaningless game as they close out the regular season. A&M has been playing outstanding basketball winning 7 of last 8 and they are a PERFECT 8-0 at home in SEC play. While they are locked into 2nd place, the Aggies will bring the heat here in their final home game of the season and facing off against the #1 team in the SEC. At home A&M has a PPG margin of +13 and their defense is allowing just 60 PPG. Bama, on the other hand, has seen a big dip in their road splits vs home splits. They average 12 PPG less on the road and efficiency drops way off on road from 1.18 PPP at home to 0.99 on the road. We like the Aggies to win this game at home. |
|||||||
03-03-23 | New Mexico -2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Friday at 11 PM ET - When healthy, the Lobos are as talented as any team in the Mountain West despite their 8-9 league record. Their star point guard Jaelen House missed back to back games earlier this month and since his return New Mexico is 2-2. However, taking a closer look at those games reveals they’ve played very well over their last 4. The 2 wins were both by double digits vs San Jose State & Fresno State. The 2 losses were vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference and New Mexico was in solid position to win both. They led by 13 @ Boise last week and shot only 37% from the field yet still had a shot at the win. The Lobos then faced #1 seed San Diego State over the weekend and again led by 13 in the 2nd half and the Aztecs led for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 2nd half but hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 2. The New Mexico offense is a terrible match up for this CSU defense. In the first meeting which was a NM blowout win, the Lobos scored 88 points on 1.28 PPP. The Rams rank dead last in the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing 1.12 PPG and 10th in eFG% allowed. They also have one of the worst 3 point defenses in the country (ranked 306th) while New Mexico is the best 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% of their triples in league play. The Lobos have averaged 85 PPG since House returned and they should have their way offensively tonight. It’s CSU’s final home game but they’ve been less than spectacular with a terrible 2-6 record at home in conference play. The Rams only 2 home wins in conference play were vs Wyoming and Fresno who have a combined MWC record of 10-25. CSU will be seeded anywhere from 7 to 11 for the upcoming conference tourney which means they’ll play on the first day no matter what. This game is huge for NM as a win sets them up to possibly get the 5 seed and avoid the play in round. We’ll take the much better team in a near pick-em game tonight. |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Akron v. Kent State -4 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent State -4 over Akron, Friday at 7 PM ET - Revenge is in place for the 2nd place team in the MAC (Kent) in their home finale. A win here and a Toledo loss @ Ball State and the Golden Flashes can finish in a tie for 1st place. A win here and the worst they finish is in 2nd place. Kent traveled to Akron 1 month ago as a 1 point road favorite and lost the game 67-55. Now we’re only laying -5 (opening number) at home which is a nice value based on the spread when they met in early February. The Flashes, who average 1.11 PPP in MAC play this year, put up just 0.89 PPP in that loss which was by far their worst offensive performance of the MAC season. In fact, Kent has put up at least 1.00 PPP in every other conference game but 1 this season. In the loss, Akron made 20 FT’s while Kent made only 7 which turned out to be the difference in the game. Since that loss, they have won 6 of 7 games and their home court advantage has been terrific with a perfect 14-0 record this year. They average 83.6 PPG at home which is nearly 30 more than they scored @ Akron last month. They also shoot 48% at home while putting up 1.13 PPP we expect a much better offensive performance tonight. This is their home finale (and season finale) and with revenge along with celebrating 4 key seniors, we expect Kent to bring their best on Friday night. Since beating Kent, the Zips are 4-3 and struggled to beat Ball State in their home finale. The Cardinals led by double digits midway through the 2nd half and Akron battled back for the win. They have a .500 record on the road, but score only 68 PPG and average less than 1.00 PPP away from home (0.97 PPP). Facing a motivated Kent defense that ranks #1 in the MAC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and turnovers created will be tough for the Zips. Kent is the better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it with the Golden Flashes at home in their finale. |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Washington State v. Washington +1.5 | Top | 93-84 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
#770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Wazzou is off back to back road wins @ Stanford and @ Cal and now playing their 3rd straight away from home. Despite their 2 road wins over the last week, the Cougars have been terrible on the road this season. They have a record of 3-8 in true road games and they are averaging only 62 PPG this season away from home while making only 38% of their shots. Washington State’s offensive efficiency drops from 1.08 PPP at home to 0.97 PPP on the road. We’re also catching them as an overvalued road favorite because they’ve won 5 straight games. The fact is 4 of those 5 wins have come against the 4 lowest rated teams in the Pac 12. We’re getting the Huskies as a dog in their home finale and they are playing better winning 3 of 4. At home they are 12-5 on the season and their 3 home losses in conference play have come vs UCLA, Arizona, and USC, the 3 top teams in the Pac 12. The Huskies are set to close out their regular season with a revenge win over their arch rival. In their meeting earlier this season, Wazzou held on to win a tight game 56-51. In that game the Cougars outscored Washington by 12 points from beyond the arc and by 5 points from the FT line yet it was a down to the wire game. WSU relies very heavily on shooting well from 3 as almost 40% of their points come from deep. Problem for them here is, Washington is very good at defending the arc allowing 29% on the season which is good for 14th nationally. On top of that Wazzou only hits 32% of their triples on the road this season. Thus we do not expect the Cougs to have another big advantage from deep which will hurt them in this game. As expected, the dog in this huge rivalry has covered 8 in and 20 of the last 27. We like Washington to win this one outright. |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Appalachian State v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Early start here in the Sun Belt Conference tourney. We really like this South Alabama team and think they can make a run in this tournament. After starting the Sun Belt season with a 2-7 record, they Jags hit their stride winning 7 of their last 9 games in conference play. They are much better than their 9-9 Sun Belt record. The Jaguars PPP differential (conference play) is the 3rd best in the league behind only Marshall and Louisiana who finished with overall records of 24-7 and 23-7 respectively. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is very balanced. Defensively they rank 1st in PPG allowed and eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency. Offensively they rank #1 in the Sun Belt in eFG% and turn the ball over only 15% of the time, the least in the conference. They were 3rd in the conference in PPG margin (+5.6) while App State was 8th at (+0.0 PPG) despite each finishing with a 9-9 record. The Mountaineers are not a great shooting team (258th nationally in eFG%) and they only average 65 PPG in conference play. If this one comes down to FT’s App State is not in a good spot ranking dead last in the Sun Belt making just 65% from the line. In their lone meeting this year, South Alabama won by 17 points despite taking 12 fewer shot attempts. The FT attempts were nearly dead even (11 to 10) so it wasn’t as if USA had a huge edge from the line to make up for the fewer shot attempts. They dominated more than the final score might indicate. This game is being played in a neutral site in Pensacola, FL which is only 55 miles from Mobile, AL, home of South Alabama. We like the Jaguars to make run in this tourney and it starts on Thursday morning. Lay it. |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Texas v. TCU -2 | Top | 73-75 | Push | 0 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
#704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU -2 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We love this TCU team and when healthy we feel they are one of the best teams in the country. They are undervalued with just an 8-8 Big 12 record, however half of those losses (4) came when their top player Mike Miles was out with an injury. They also lost to Mississippi State when Miles was initially injured just 4 minutes into the game. Thus, the Frogs were just 1-5 when Miles was out from early to mid February. They’ve also played a number of games without starters Peavy & Lampkin as well. Peavy is back and playing while Lampkin has been in and out of the lineup. This team is as close to 100% as they have been in quite a while. We faded Texas on Saturday @ Baylor and picked up a win. The Horns have a very solid 22-7 record, but on the road they simply are an average team. They have a losing record in their road games and have been outscored on road this season. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with their only win during that stretch coming by 3 points @ Kansas State in a game they trailed by 14 points. At home the Horns average 85 PPG on 50% shooting. On the road they average 69 PPG on 43% shooting. At home TCU averages 78 PPG while allowing just 62 PPG. Their only conference home loss when they were at full strength was a 5 point setback vs Kansas, a game in which they made only 20 of their 66 shot attempts (30%). KU had some revenge on their minds in that game after TCU beat them by 23 points in Lawrence. The first meeting between these 2 teams went to the wire in Austin with Texas coming out on top 79-75. The Horned Frogs blew a 13 point halftime lead in that game and Texas took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Despite the conference records, Texas 11-5 & TCU 8-8, these 2 teams have very similar PPP margins in league play. TCU is underrated and we’ll take them at home. |
|||||||
02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over West Virginia, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re definitely catching a buy low spot on ISU in this game. They are coming off their worst home performance of the season losing 61-50 as a 7.5 point favorite vs Oklahoma. The Cyclones jumped out to an 11 point first half lead and they were up by 5 at halftime when their offense went in the tank. They shot just 27% in the 2nd half while OU hit over 56% of their shots after the break. Even with that loss ISU is still a very good 13-2 at home this season and they’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Baylor, KSU, and Texas here this season. Head coach TJ Otzelberger was not happy after the performance and mentioned his team needs more “personal pride”. We expect a great effort on Monday night. The Cyclones are catching WVU in a vulnerable spot. The Mountaineers played @ Kansas on Saturday and took the Jayhawks to the wire losing by 2 points. That was a physically and emotionally draining game and now they must play on the road, in one of the toughest spots to play in the Big 12, just 48 hours later. Despite playing KU tough on Saturday, West Virginia is just 2-8 on the road this season and they’ve now lost 7 straight away from home. They are the worst shooting team in the Big 12 (conference games) ranking dead last in eFG%. Tonight they are facing the top defensive efficiency team in the conference and one of the best in the country as ISU allows just 0.91 PPP (8th nationally). We expect WVU to struggle offensively in this game. While Iowa State’s offense played poorly on Saturday, they did get a key piece back in the line up with Caleb Grill (10 PPG, 37% from 3 point range) returning from an injury. When these 2 met @ WVU earlier this month, the Cyclones gave the Mountaineers all they could handle losing by 5 points in a game they led with just over 1:00 minute remaining. We like Iowa State to get back on track and grab a win & cover in their final home game of the season. They start 4 seniors so this will be an emotional night in Ames. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
02-25-23 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
#786 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -5 over St Mary’s, Saturday at 10 PM ET = The Zags have been waiting patiently for this WCC rematch. St Mary’s won the first meeting earlier this month at home in OT. It was a game that Gonzaga pretty much controlled throughout despite the loss. St Mary’s led for just over 1:00 minute in the first half and NEVER had a lead in the 2nd half. Thus the Zags led for 39 of the 40 minutes in regulation and lost when the Gaels sent the game to OT with the game tying basket with 8 seconds remaining in the game. Now the Zags get a shot at revenge at home where they have won 80 of their last 81 games! Not only that, Gonzaga sits one game behind St Mary’s for the WCC title and this is their season and home finale. A win would push them into a tie for 1st place in the conference on Senior Night. On top of that, ESPN’s College Game Day will be there on Saturday and the atmosphere will be beyond electric. Experts have been banging on the Bulldogs for not being at the same elite level they have been in recent years. While they might be down a bit from previous seasons, they are still outstanding. Four of their five losses have come vs Purdue, St Marys, Baylor, and Texas, all top 15 teams per KenPom. Their other loss was at home vs a solid Loyola Marymount team and when they had a shot at their revenge on the road, they beat LMU 108-65 just over 1 week ago. The Gaels also have 5 losses, however 4 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 including 2 ranked outside the top 100. On the road in WCC play St Mary’s lost at Loyola Marymount and had a number of close calls winning by 1 @ BYU, by 3 @ San Diego, and by 3 @ Santa Clara. Tonight they are stepping into a hornet’s nest at the McCarthey Athletic Center where Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 93 PPG this season with an average winning margin of +24 PPG. They are more than comfortable at home offensively where they make 55% of their shots and they are the most efficient offense overall in the nation this year averaging 1.22 PPP. Since the 1995/96 season, these 2 rivals have met 27 times in Spokane and Gonzaga has won 24 of those games. 9 of the last 10 home wins for Gonzaga vs St Mary’s have come by double digits. The Gaels are very good this season but this is a bad spot for them and we like Gonzaga to cover at home. |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
#608 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa -5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The statistical comparison of Iowa’s home vs road games is quite dramatic. They have superb numbers at home and on the road, not so much. At home this season the Hawkeyes are averaging 89 PPG shooting 49% from the field and almost 39% from deep. On the road, they average just 67 PPG on 40% shooting while only making 26% of their shots from the arc. We’re catching Iowa off back to back double digit road losses @ Northwestern & @ Wisconsin so they are hungry for a win here. In those 2 games, the Hawks combined go shoot 6 of 52 (11%) from beyond the 3 point line! Most were uncontested looks that just didn’t go down. Now at home where they shoot very well, we look for those numbers to skyrocket. Michigan State is in a tough spot here in our opinion. They had a rivalry game last weekend @ Michigan and lost by 12 (we were on Michigan). Then on Tuesday, they came home for a very emotional game vs Indiana which was the first home game since the tragic campus shootings. We were on Sparty in that game and they won by 15 points and players and coach Izzo alike were very consumed by the emotion of that game. Now they go on the road facing a desperate Iowa team which will be tough. MSU is just 1-5 SU their last 6 road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by at least 9 points. For the season they are averaging just 64 PPG on the road while allowing 69 PPG. Remember, they are facing an Iowa team that averages nearly 90 PPG at home and the Hawks have scored at least 80 points in all but 1 conference home game. We’re just not sure the Spartans can keep up in this game. Not only will Iowa shoot well here as they almost always to at home, they should have a solid advantage at the FT line. 18% of Iowa’s points in league play come from the stripe (4th most) while MSU allows 21% of opponents points at the charity stripe (most in the Big 10). These 2 met in late January with the Spartans winning by a final of 63-61 as a 2.5 point favorite. A couple of takeaways from that game…MSU’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points while Iowa held a 10 point lead at one point. Iowa made only 3 of 17 from deep (17%) while Michigan State made 40% of their triples. Iowa also made just 46% of their FT’s and their season average is 74%. Even with all of that, the Hawkeyes had the ball late and missed two 3-pointers in the final 7 seconds which would have won the game. This one sets up very nicely for Iowa to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Georgia State v. James Madison -13.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON James Madison -13.5 over Georgia State, Friday at 8 PM ET - James Madison is playing their home finale on Friday night and will honor 4 seniors, including 3 starters. The Dukes will be highly motivated in their last home game and adding fuel to the fire they are coming off a home loss Thursday night vs Sun Belt 1st place Marshall. That loss dropped JMU to 20-10 on the season and 11-6 in the Sun Belt. They have been a solid money maker this season with an 18-9 ATS record. The Dukes offense has been fantastic all season long averaging 81 PPG (18th nationally) and they’ve been even better at home putting up an average of 86 PPG. That’s going to be a problem for an offensive limited Georgia State team that is averaging only 61 PPG on the road this season. The Panthers offense ranks 324th in efficiency, 346th in eFG%, and 356th in 3 point FG%. They are facing a JMU defense that ranks 64th nationally in efficiency allowing less than 1.00 PPP and the Dukes create a ton of turnovers (22nd nationally). Meanwhile, Ga State turns the ball over at a very high rate, over 20% in conference play which is dead last in the league. That should lead to a number of extra possessions for James Madison, who is already a high scoring team. GSU is in last place in the league with a 3-14 record having lost 10 of their last 11 games. They are 0-10 SU on the road this year. They just played at home on Senior night Thursday vs a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, App State who is 9-9 in the league, and the Panthers were destroyed by 26 points. Now in their regular season finale, on the road vs one of the top teams in the conference, we don’t expect a great effort in a meaningless game for the Panthers. When these 2 met @ Georgia State earlier this season, JMU won 63-47 despite shooting just 35% overall and 21% from beyond the arc. They also played that game without their 2nd leading scorer, Morse, who is back and playing very well. Even with that, JMU led throughout and cruised to an easy road win. Now at home, and motivated vs a team that looks like they may have packed it in, this one could get ugly. GSU is among the worst ATS teams in CBB with a 6-18-2 spread record and we think they drop another tonight. James Madison BIG. |
|||||||
02-23-23 | Northwestern v. Illinois -5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
#810 ASA TOP PLAY ON Illinois -5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Cats have won 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 but now they’ve become a bit overvalued in our opinion. The perfect example is when these 2 met in January, the Illini were favored by 3.5 on the road and now they are laying just 1 to 2 points more at home. NW won that first meeting 73-60 and while the Illini held the Wildcats offense in check allowing just 32% from the field, they lost the FT battle 32 to 6! Yes you read that correctly. Northwestern was 32 of 40 from the FT line while Illinois was 6 of 10. That was obviously the difference in the game and one of the more drastic FT differentials we’ve seen this season. Now we get the Illini in revenge mode, at home with a short number, and NW is ahead of them in the Big 10 standings. The Illini have been very good at home with a 13-2 overall record and they are outscoring their opponents by +17 PPG. One of Illinois’ top players, Terrence Shannon, has missed the last 2 games due to a concussion but he was back at practice on Wednesday. No word for sure if he’ll play or not but things are looking good. We’ve handicapped this game as if Shannon will not play so if he does it’s a bonus. NW is coming off a huge 3 game home stand in which they beat Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa. They were underdogs in all of those home games and now they are only a slight dog on the road vs a team that ranks 12 spots higher than Iowa (per KenPom) and nearly identical to Indiana. Two of those wins for NW went to the wire and if they lose those games we’re most likely laying 7 or more here. The Cats were just +5.5 @ Ohio State (who is 3-13 in conference play) in their most recent road game. Great value with Illinois here in our opinion. Prior to beating Illinois last month, Northwestern had lost 8 straight vs the Illini and they’ve only won THREE times in Champaign since 1980. We’ll lay it with the home team. |
|||||||
02-22-23 | New Mexico v. Boise State -6 | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Broncos have been waiting for this one and that’s stating it lightly. These 2 met back on January 21st and New Mexico won that game at home 81-79 in OT. The Lobos trailed for much of the game (led for about 12 of the 40 minutes in regulation) and never led by more than 5 points despite Boise hitting only 20% of their 3 point shots (5 of 24) which is well below their season average of 36%. Boise head coach Leon Rice was also extremely upset with a halftime incident in which they were headed back to their locker room and the hallway leading back was lined with New Mexico baseball players who were waiting to be introduced to the crowd. Those baseball players were trash talking the BSU players in the very narrow hallway which could have turned into a “riot” according to Rice. That will give the Broncos a little extra fire at home for this game although they shouldn’t need it. BSU has been nearly unbeatable at home in Mountain West play winning 32 of their last 35 including a perfect 7-0 this season with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They shoot 49% as a team at home including 40% from beyond the arc so we don’t expect another 20% effort from the Broncos. The Boise State defense is among the best in the nation ranking 10th in adjusted efficiency, 20th in PPG allowed, and 22nd defending the arc. At home they allow just 59 PPG. New Mexico is coming off an enormous offensive performance @ San Jose State, however they were trending down losing 5 of their previous 6 games prior to that big win. The Lobos shot a ridiculous 64% in that win, including 61% from 3, and made 21 FT’s. No way they come close to those numbers vs the top defense in the MWC on the road. Boise, on the other hand, is coming off a rather ho-hum performance winning a close game vs UNLV as they were undoubtedly looking ahead to this revenger. Boise is just 1 game behind San Diego State for 1st place in the Mountain West and we like them to win and cover on Wednesday night. |
|||||||
02-21-23 | Indiana v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This is a huge home game for MSU coming off their loss @ Michigan over the weekend and with 2 straight road games on deck. We were on Michigan over Sparty on Saturday and picked up a 12 point in what we thought was a great spot to fade MSU. Now we’re in a different scenario getting the Spartans at home off the loss vs an IU team that trailed at home most of the way on Saturday but pulled out a tight win. The Hoosiers were behind at half and most of the 2nd half at home vs a short handed Illinois team on Saturday (Illini were minus their leading scorer) but squeaked by with a 3 point win when the Illini scored 3 points in the final 4 minutes of the game. Now IU is on the road where they are just 4-6 on the season and they have a huge rivalry game with Purdue on deck. The Hoosiers numbers take a huge dip on the road where their average margin this season is -5 PPG. They average just 66 PPG away from home while putting up an average of 81 PPG at home. The Hoosiers are just 2-7-1 ATS on the road this season. Sparty is 10-2 at home this season and a perfect 3-0 when playing at home off a loss. Their defense has been very good all season (27th nationally in efficiency) and they are the #1 team in the Big 10 defending the arc allowing just 27% in conference games. MSU takes it to another level at home on the defensive end allowing just 59 PPG. IU took the first meeting rather easily winning 82-69 at home. The Hoosiers hit 60% of their 3’s in that game and outscored MSU by 15 points from the arc. We don’t see that happening here. Home team 26-10 ATS the last 36 meetings and we like Michigan State to get the win and cover. |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Michigan State v. Michigan -2 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#778 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -2 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wolverines last Saturday were laying -2 at home vs Indiana. It was a game Michigan led pretty much throughout but went the final 5:00+ minutes of the game without scoring a single point and lost to the Hoosiers 62-61. Michigan missed their final 8 shots of the game and didn’t go to the FT line once in the final 5:00 minutes. IU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with under 3:00 remaining in the game. The Wolverines followed that up with a loss @ Wisconsin on Tuesday night and they are now in must win mode at home. Their only other home loss in Big 10 play was a tight game (75-70) vs Purdue and the Wolverines played that game without one of their top players, Jett Howard. On Saturday Michigan is laying -1.5 (opening line) vs MSU so less than last week vs IU despite the fact that the Hoosiers rank 10+ spots higher than the Spartans per KenPom. When these 2 met in East Lansing this season Sparty was favored by 3.5 and won 59-53. That tells us this line should be Michigan by around 4 points (or a bit higher) which is right in line with our power ratings giving us value on the host here. In that first meeting Michigan shot just 35% from the field and a terrible 15% from beyond the arc and scored only 18 points in the first half. Even with that terrible offensive performance, they still had a shot at the road win. MSU has been through a lot this week which is not ideal. Their game vs Minnesota on Wednesday was cancelled and school was called off until next week due to the terrible shooting tragedy on campus. Sparty continued to practice but per their head coach Tom Izzo their practices were “awful” midweek which is completely understandable. This is a tough spot for them on the road where they have not been good this season. They have a losing road record on the season and are scoring just 63 PPG away from home this season. The host has dominated this rivalry with the home team winning and covering 9 straight. Make that 10 straight with the Wolverines on Saturday night. |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Iowa State v. Kansas State -3 | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas State -3 over Iowa State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU has lost 5 of their last 7 games and now they are backed into a corner at home in a must win spot. 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss this season was 69-66 setback vs Texas (13-1 home record for KSU). The Cats have dropped from 1st place in the Big 12 to 5th place 1 game behind today’s opponent Iowa State. The Cyclones have one of the most dramatic home – road dichotomies on the Big 12. While they are 6-1 at home, ISU is just 2-5 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins in Big 12 play came way back in early January and they have since lost 5 straight away from home. On the road for the season ISU is averaging just 64 PPG and getting outscored by an average of 5.5 points per game. Kansas State at home this season has won by an average score of 75-60 and their defense has been outstanding at Bramlage Coliseum holding opponents to just 38% from the field overall and 25% from beyond the arc. That’ll be a problem for an ISU team that struggles to score on the road. When these 2 met in January in Ames, IA, the Cyclones squeaked out an 80-76 win. ISU shot 57% from the field at home in that game yet KSU still had a shot to win trailing by 2 points with under 30 seconds remaining. Now on the road, we expect the Cyclones to shoot much closer to their average which is 44% away from home. KSU has covered 6 of their last 7 home games and they are 10-4 ATS here on the season. We look for the Wildcats to bounce back at home and pick up a win & cover. |
|||||||
02-17-23 | New Mexico v. San Jose State -1 | Top | 96-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -1 over New Mexico, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - New Mexico has fallen off a cliff since their perfect 14-0 start. Since January 1st the Lobos have a record of 5-7 and they have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those as favorites. They now sit under .500 in the Mountain West (6-7 record) despite playing the easiest conference schedule to date. The New Mexico defense has really taken a hit over the last few weeks allowing opponents to make over 50% of their shots and 41% of their 3 pointers all while allowing nearly 79 PPG over the last 5 games. San Jose State has been quietly having a solid season with a record of 16-10 overall and 7-6 (5th place) in the MWC. They have one of the most unheralded yet successful coaches in college hoops with Tim Miles who coaches previously at Nebraska, North Dakota State, & Colorado State. He took over a SJSU program in 2021/22 that had a grand total of 20 wins the previous 4 seasons and already has them with a shot at a 20 win season this year. The Spartans are 5-1 at home in conference play this season and have won 3 of their last 4 games. These 2 met in mid January when New Mexico was 16-2 on the season. The Lobos easily won at home 77-57 and the Spartans were abysmal offensively in that game shooting just 34% overall, just 19% from beyond the arc and made only 9 FT’s. The Lobos hit 53% of their shots on that day and made 20 FT’s. That performance should give San Jose a little extra juice at home on Friday night. New Mexico leading scorer Jaelen House has missed the last 2 games due to a hamstring injury and head coach Richard Pitino said he’s not sure if he’ll be ready on Friday. Even if he does play, a hamstring problem could severely limit his quickness which is a key part of his game. The host is an impressive 15-3 ATS in this series and we’ll call for another home win and cover tonight. |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +2.5 over Creighton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Jays are at the top end of their market right now having won 8 straight games. They are coming off a huge home win over UConn, a game they had been waiting for since losing to the Huskies earlier this season. Now they are on the road facing a Friars team who has lost 2 of their last 3 games, both on the road, including a 5 point setback on St Johns on Saturday as a 4.5 point favorite. They get a shot at revenge here after losing @ Creighton in mid January, a game that started the Blue Jays current winning streak. In that game, Creighton was favored by 7 and topped Providence by 5 points shooting 48% from the field compared to 38% for the Friars. Providence also played that game without one of the top players and starting PG Jared Bynum who is back healthy now and has averaged 23 PPG since his return 5 games ago. Providence is 13-0 at home this season averaging 83 PPG while allowing 66 PPG. The Jays are 3-3 on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Butler and Georgetown, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big East. Their other road win was @ Seton Hall where Creighton shot a ridiculous 61% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. Based on the previous line between these 2 @ Creighton, the Friars should be a slight favorite here but they are getting points. Take the value with Providence at home. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL +5.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - This line is about 3 points too high according to our power ratings. The Canes sit ahead of UNC in the ACC standings with an 11-4 record (UNC is 8-6) and even their losses have come down to the wire. Miami’s 4 conference losses have come by a combined 13 points with none by more than 6. The Heels are 6-1 in ACC play at home, however they’ve played a very easy slate of teams at the Dean Dome. They’ve faced 1 team at home in conference play currently ranked inside the top 60 per KenPom and that was a loss vs Pitt (ranked 58th). Now they face the best team they’ve seen at home this entire season. The Canes are the much better shooting team in this match up. They rank #1 in the ACC (conference games) in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%. On top of that they are hitting 79% of their FT’s in ACC play. UNC ranks dead last in the league in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. Miami has a solid edge in the backcourt with Wong & Pack who combine to average 29 PPG while shooting 38% and 40% from 3’s respectively. They should have a field day vs Carolina’s defense that ranks 155th guarding the arc. The Canes have shown they can knock off the best in the ACC with wins vs Virginia and Duke. UNC is 0-4 this season vs the top tier teams in the conference (UVA, Duke, Miami, and Pitt). Too many points here as even if the Heels are able to pull of this home win, we anticipate a close game. |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Cyclones have been night and day when it comes to home vs away games in conference play this season. Overall for the season ISU is 12-0 SU at home and just 2-6 on the road. In Big 12 play they are 5-0 at home and 2-5 on the road. We’re catching them in a great spot as well coming off a road loss @ West Virginia on Wednesday night (we were on WVU). This line is short in our opinion because it looks like Oklahoma State is on a great roll winning 6 of their last 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games have been at home and their 1 road win during that stretch was vs a free falling Oklahoma team that has lost 6 straight conference games and is only 2-9 in Big 12 play. The fact is, OSU has lost every other Big 12 road game (1-4 SU on the road) besides their win at Oklahoma. Iowa State has been dominant at home as we mentioned. Of their 12 home wins, 11 have come by double digits. Many of those wins coming vs top tier Big 12 teams as they beat Kansas by 15, Baylor by 15, and Texas by 11, all better teams than Oklahoma State. They are averaging 75 PPG at home while their defense has been stifling at Hilton Coliseum allowing just 53 PPG on 38% shooting and 28% from beyond the arc. We anticipate the OSU offense, who averages just 0.96 points per possession in Big 12 play (8th) to have all kinds of problems scoring in this one. When these 2 met in late January in Stillwater, the Cowboys made 7 more three pointers and 9 more FT’s in the game yet only won by 2 points. That’s a 30 point edge from beyond the arc + FT’s made and ISU still had a shot to win the game. In fact, ISU led for much of that game with their largest lead being 16 points while OSU largest lead at home in that game was just 3 points. Despite these 2 teams having similar Big 12 records (ISU 7-4 / OSU 6-5) the Cyclones have been the superior team by a decent margin in conference play. Iowa State is +10 points per 100 possessions (efficiency margin) in league play while Oklahoma State is dead even in that statistic. In fact, ISU leads the Big 12 in efficiency margin which tells us they are better than their 7-4 conference record. The Cowboys are 8th in the conference in that stat telling us they aren’t as good as their 6-5 record. The Cowboys are also missing a key piece to their lineup with Avery Anderson (11 PPG / 3.5 rebounds / 3.5 assists) most likely out here and contributed 18 points in the first meeting with ISU. We expect the Cyclones to win this one by double digits. |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Connecticut v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#662 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over UConn, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Jays are on quite a roll right now winning 10 of their last 12 games since their 7’1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15 PPG & 7 RPG) returned to the line up after missing 3 games in mid December (all losses). Their only 2 setbacks during this impressive run were @ Xavier by 3 and @ UConn by 9. They’ve been waiting patiently for this rematch. The Huskies have done pretty much the opposite starting the season very well but falling off as of late. They won their first 14 games of the season, but since that UConn is 5-6 over their last 11 games. The Huskies are just 3-4 on the road in Big East play and their 3 wins away from home have come vs Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler, the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. In fact, those are the only 3 Big East teams that are not ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, a 69-60 UConn win, the stats were pretty even across the board with the one different being UConn made 8 three pointers (33% from deep) while Creighton made only 2 of 16 for 12%. That was an 18 point difference from beyond the arc in favor of the Huskies in that game. We expect those numbers from beyond the arc to be in favor of the Jays in this one as they shoot 36% from deep at home and make an average of 9.5 triples per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big East play this season (32-6 here their last 38 Big East games) and 5 of those wins have come by double digits. The Blue Jays average margin of victory at home in conference play this season is +16.5 PPG. We also expect them to have a big advantage at the FT line here. In the meeting @ UConn it was dead even (UConn 19 made FT’s to 18 for Creighton). The Huskies foul more than any other team in the Big East allowing 24% of their opponents points (conference games) to come from the stripe. Creighton fouls the least of any team in the league with only 14% of opponents points coming from the FT line. If we look at their Big East stats only (similar strength of schedule), Creighton is outscoring their opponents by +15 points per 100 possessions compared to UConn’s +7 points per 100 possessions. These 2 have faced each other only 6 times with Creighton winning 5 including 2-0 at home. Lay the small number with the Blue Jays on Saturday. |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
#890 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State -2.5 over Northern Kentucky, Friday at 9 PM ET - Wright State struggled early in the Horizon League season but they’ve hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was by 2 points in OT on the road vs the top team in the conference, Youngstown State. The Raiders are now 8-7 in conference play taking on the 10-4 Northern Kentucky Norse who are overvalued in our opinion. The Norse have played 14 conference games with 9 of those coming at home. They have 3 road wins, however those have come vs the 3 worst teams in the Horizon League – UW Green Bay (ranked 361 per KenPom out of 363 teams), IUPUI (ranked 360) and Robert Morris (ranked 267). Those three teams have a combined record of 18-58 on the season so far from impressive road wins for NKU. This will be their 3rd straight road game which is far from ideal. While Northern is very solid defensively, the really struggle on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 250 in scoring, FG%, and 3 point %. They also make only 67% of their FT’s on the season. Wright State is very good offensively ranking 4th in the nation hitting over 50% of their shots on the season while averaging 81 PPG. At home that number jumps to 86 PPG while Northern KY only puts up 60 PPG on the road. We’re not sure NKU can keep up here and we’re laying a short number with Wright State. The Norse have a spread record of 7-16 (354th nationally) on the season while Wright has been a money maker as of late covering 5 straight. This is also a revenger after WSU lost at NKU earlier in the season. Take the Raiders at home on Friday Night. |
|||||||
02-09-23 | UAB +3 v. North Texas | Top | 79-82 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +3 over North Texas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We really like this UNT team, however we’re catching a very undervalued UAB getting points and we can’t pass that up. UAB is finally back at full strength with Jelly Walker back in the lineup after missing 5 straight games from mid January to early February. Walker is the Blazers leading scoring at 22 PPG and makes nearly 40% of this 3’s along with 85% of his FT’s. He’s been back for 2 games and UAB won both including topping the best team in the conference, FAU who is 22-2 on the season, by 9 points last Thursday night. These 2 met in late January and UAB was a 3 point favorite at home in that game despite Walker not playing. UNT pulled the upset shooting 48% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc, both well above their season averages. The fact is the Mean Green are not a great shooting team despite that effort @ UAB. They rank 349th nationally averaging just 62 PPG and outside the top 300 making only 41% of their shots on the season. They are also the slowest paced team in the nation and those 2 things combined make it tough for them to win games by a large margin. UNT is 19-5 on the season yet their average margin of victory is just +7 PPG. They have played 4 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 and lost 3 of those with their only win coming vs this undermanned UAB team who is now full strength. The 3 best teams in CUSA are FAU, UNT, and UAB. When the Blazers had Walker on the court they beat FAU handily at home as we mentioned and lost by just 2 points on the road. North Texas lost both of their games vs FAU this season. The Green have already lost 2 home games in conference play and 2 of their 4 home wins in the league have come by 4 points or fewer. The road team has won 9 in a row outright in this series & the dog has covered 5 straight. We think UAB has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points. |
|||||||
02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight. |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home. |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday. |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night. |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana. |
|||||||
02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home. |
|||||||
02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night. |
|||||||
01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover. |
|||||||
01-29-23 | Rutgers +4 v. Iowa | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Kansas +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home. |
|||||||
01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one. |
|||||||
01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night. |
|||||||
01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it. |
|||||||
01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
|||||||
01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
|||||||
01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
|||||||
01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |