Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#359 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on the Pats a few weeks ago when they traveled to NY to face the Jets. New England was -3 in that game and won 22-17 but we were a bit fortunate as they Jets outplayed them. NY has 100 more yards and averaged nearly 3.0 YPP more per snap than the Patriots. The Jets made some key mistakes with 3 TO’s, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs inside the Patriot 30 yard line. After being favored by a FG on the road, this line is very telling with New England now only 3.5 at home just a few weeks later. The Jets are better offensively (5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP), better defensively (4.8 YPP allowed to 5.2 YPP allowed) and they’ve played the tougher schedule thus far per Football Outsiders (2nd highest SOS to 17th for New England). New York steps into this game with some serious momentum winning 5 of their last 6 games including a win over Buffalo in their most recent game prior to their bye last week. Their defense has been fantastic holding their last 6 opponents to an average of 15 PPG with 5 of those teams scoring under their season average. The Patriots offense ranks 26th in the NFL and in their meeting a few weeks ago NY held them to just 288 despite the loss. New England is also off a bye and Belichick was once great off a bye with Brady at QB. However, in his 2 years without Brady as his QB, the Pats lost both of their games off their bye week vs lower tier QB’s Drew Lock and Carson Wentz. NY is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they get their revenge here after drastically outplaying New England a few weeks ago. Take +3.5. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset |
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11-19-22 | Houston v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 41 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Not idea weather conditions in GB on Thursday night with cold temps in low 20’s with a wind chill in the teens and 15 MPH winds. The Tennessee offense continues to struggle ranking dead last in offensive YPG. The only team they’ve outgained this year in Houston who ranks 29th in total offense. The Titans haven’t gotten to 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging a league low 24 yards per drive. They run the ball as much as anyone with 54% of their plays coming on the ground and that won’t change here vs a Packer defense whose weakness is vs the run. GB’s offense looked much better last week vs Dallas putting up 28 in regulation with almost 25% of their total yards coming on 2 big TD passes from Rodgers to rookie WR Watson. We’re still not sold on this GB offense that was averaging just 12.5 PPG offensively (minus defensive points) the previous 4 games including just 9 points vs a terrible Detroit defense. The Titan defense has held 6 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer in regulation including a KC offense that ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring. These are 2 very slow paced teams as well ranking 29th (GB) and 32nd (Tenn) in tempo so we don’t expect many offensive plays in this one. On top of that, both teams will lean on their running game which eats clock. We think there is a solid chance neither team gets over 20 points here so we like the UNDER. |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#265/266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Philly defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing just 4.7 YPP (2nd) and they are facing a Washington offense that averages just 4.9 YPP (28th). The Commanders are averaging just 17 PPG on the season and they have topped that number just ONCE in their last 7 games. Over that 7 game stretch Washington is averaging just 14.8 PPG and one of those games was vs Philadelphia who held them to 8 points. The only TD Washington scored in that first meeting with the Eagles – a 24-8 loss – was with under 2 minutes remaining in the game. While the Commanders offense has been poor, their defense has been quite respectable. They have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 5 games with 4 of those going Under the total. The key to slowing down the Eagles offense is to limit their potent rushing attack and Washington is very solid vs the run. In the first meeting this year, the Commanders held Philadelphia to 72 yards rushing which makes them the only defense this season to hold the Eagles under 100 yards on the ground. They also held them to 24 points which is the 2nd lowest total for Philly this year. The Eagles have a tendency to get a lead in the first half and then eat clock in the 2nd half, shortening the game. To that point, Philly leads the NFL averaging 21 PPG in the first and but only put up 8 PPG in the 2nd. We anticipate this type of game tonight with the Eagles laying 11 points, we like them to get out to a lead and then eat clock in the 2nd half. Since the start of the 2020 season, these 2 have met 5 times and scored an average of 38 points in those games with none topping 44. We like the Under tonight. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Green Bay’s offense is struggling mightily and now they face off against the best defense in the NFL per Football Outsiders DVOA. The Packers are averaging just 12.5 PPG over their last 4 games (minus defensive points) and they have not topped 17 points offensively during that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has no weapons on the outside and they continue to be banged up at WR with Doubs out along with Watkins and Lazard questionable. On top of that RB Jones is questionable and 3 of their 4 starting offensive lineman didn’t practice on Wednesday. In all, 8 of Green Bay’s 11 starting offensive players missed practice or were very limited this week. There is also not enough being made about Rodgers thumb injury as he has been missing practice and his numbers have plummeted since getting hurt. Prior to the thumb injury he was completing 68% of his passes with 11 TDs, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 95. After the injury his numbers are 61% completion rate with 6 TDs, 4 interceptions and a passer rating of 81. If Green Bay could only score 9 points last week vs a Detroit defense ranked dead last in YPP allowed at 6.4 how are they going to score points vs Dallas who gives up 4.8 YPP? On the other side, we expect Dallas to run the ball a lot eating clock here. They run the ball almost 48% of the time (8th in the NFL) and teams are running on GB over 50% of the time (most in the NFL) because they struggle to stop the run (26th in the NFL). Same could be said with GB’s offense. Dallas weakness defensively is stopping the run and with all of the injuries the Packers have out wide, they will run as much as possible. On top of that, Dallas is #1 in the NFL in sack differential at +21 so they can put pressure on the QB which is bad news for Rodgers if the Packers abandon the running game which we have a hard time believing they will. Both defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL vs the pass this season as well. Cold temps in Green Bay on Sunday with highs in the mid 30’s and 10 MPH winds. These teams are a combined 11-5-1 on the year to the UNDER with Green Bay games averaging 38 total points and Dallas games averaging 40 total points. This one should be lower scoring and we’ll grab the UNDER |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins OVER 49 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Two of the better offenses in the NFL facing off here with the Browns ranking 4th and the Dolphins 5th in total offense. Football Outsiders DVOA ranks these 2 offenses 2nd (Miami) and 5th (Cleveland) while they have the defenses ranked 24th and 27th. Cleveland is coming off a bye following their 32 points output vs a very good Cincinnati defense. We expect them to have a great offensive gameplan with 2 weeks to get ready and they are facing a Miami defense that has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Fins are allowing opponents to score an average of 2.2 points per drive which is 26th in the NFL. The Miami offense is humming with Tua back under center. They are averaging 24 PPG on the season, however in games that Tua starts and completes the Fins are putting up 29 PPG. The Browns defense has decent (middle of the pack) overall numbers however they’ve faced the 25th best schedule of offenses thus far. They’ve allowed at least 23 points in 6 of their 8 games and 30+ points in 3 games. Miami will be the highest rated offense Cleveland has faced this year. They’ve faced only 1 other team ranked inside the top 10 in total offense and that was the Chargers who put up 30 on this defense. Cleveland is allowed 2.21 points per drive which is 27th in the NFL. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 80’s and light winds at 5 MPH. The implied final score based on this total is right around Miami 26, Cleveland 23. We expect both to top those numbers. Over in this one. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
#181/182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points – Kansas State vs Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There seems to be huge games every single weekend in the Big 12 and this Saturday is no exception when Kansas State takes on Baylor. Big 12 games this season have averaged 60PPG and these two teams have a combined Over record of 10-2 in conference play. The O/U on this game currently sits at 52.5 which is the second lowest number set by the Oddsmakers this season on both teams. The only games these two teams have played in with a lower number was against Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but also one of the best defensively. Looking closer at Baylor’s offense we see they’ve started to click with four straight games of 35+ points. The Bears have the 27th most efficient offense in college football, average 12.7 yards for every point scored (17th), 34.5PPG and 5.7-yards per play which is 43rd. Kansas State’s offense is 23rd in OEFF, average 6.2YPP (24th) and score 30.1PPG on the season. Baylor converts 44.25% of their 3rd downs and can extend drives. K-Stare has a red zone scoring percentage of 90.32% so when they get inside the 20-yards line they put up points. We are not ignoring the fact that the Wildcats have some solid defensive numbers, but they have also given up 34-points to Texas, 38 to TCU, 28 to Texas Tech and 34 to Oklahoma. The Bears are also good defensively, but they too have had a few lapses defensively allowing 35 to Oklahoma, 43 to West Virginia and 36 to Oklahoma State. Weather at game time in Waco looks perfect with temps in the 40’s and very light winds. This game gets to 59 or more points. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46 Points – Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Divisional Unders have been lights out this year hitting nearly 70% with a record of 27-12-1 to the Under. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL in this game with Buffalo ranking #4 in total defense and the Jets #6. Offensively the Jets have been poor with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Bills are top 5 in both sack percentage and sacks per game and Wilson has been terrible under pressure this season. He has the lowest passer rating when pressured in the entire NFL among starting QB’s. NY has scored just 33 total points the last 2 weeks vs New England and Denver. Now facing a top tier Buffalo defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points to anyone this season, we see the NY offense continuing to struggle. The Buffalo offense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG however they got a huge jump on the season in that stat scoring 72 points in their first 2 games. Since then, Buffalo has gotten to 30 points just once in their last 5 games and they are averaging 26 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in any of their last 5 games and they are giving up only 15 PPG over that span. The Jets have gone Under the total in 3 straight games and Buffalo has gone Under 5 consecutive games. Jets games average 42 total points this season and Buffalo’s average 43 total points and this total is set at 47. These 2 teams have combined to play 15 games this season and only 4 have gone Over the total. Since 2019 these AFC East rivals have met 6 times and the average points scored in these games is 37. Only 1 of those 6 meetings has topped 44 points and 4 of the 6 have totaled 37 or less. Under is the play here. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 61 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – Baylor vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Baylor just continues to pile on points week after week and this OU offense is better than their season long numbers which are still quite good. The Bears are 15th nationally averaging 38.5 PPG and they’ve put up at least 30 in all but 2 of their 8 games this season. They should continue that success here vs an Oklahoma defense that has been a sieve all season long ranking 114th in total D. Throw out their first 3 games vs Kent, UTEP, and Nebraska, and this Sooner defense has allowed 41, 55, 49, 42, and 13 points in Big 12 play. Last week their defense looked like they may have played pretty well holding Iowa State to 13 points, however the Cyclones gained 374 total yards including 300+ through the air. That’s an ISU offense that ranks dead last in the Big12 in total offense and scoring. This week is a whole different animal vs a Baylor offense that ranks 3rd in the conference in both scoring and total offense. Oklahoma’s offense is averaging a more than respectable 33 PPG on the season. However, they played 2 games without their starting QB Gabriel and in his absence they scored only 24 total points in those 2 games. With Gabriel in the lineup, the Sooners are averaging 40 PPG! The Baylor defense stepped up last week holding Texas Tech to 17 points (45-17 final) but prior to that the Bears were allowing 31.5 PPG in league play. We’re getting some value with this total. Last week OU’s game at ISU had a total set at 58. Now only 3 points higher despite Baylor being MUCH better offensively and worse defensively with Iowa State ranking #1 in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Let’s take the Over in this one. |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
#309/310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Eagles are 2 TD favorites here so we anticipate them building a lead and sitting on it as they’ve done often this year. The lead the NFL in first half scoring at 21 PPG, however once they get a lead they grind it out averaging just 7 PPG in the 2nd half which ranks them 27th. Philly already runs the ball over 51% of the time ranking them 5th in the NFL and we expect an even heavier dose of the ground game tonight vs the Texans 32nd ranked run defense. That should eat clock especially in the 2nd half with the lead if things play out as planned. Houston’s offense will have big problems scoring against one of the top defensive units in the NFL. The Texans rank 29th in scoring at 16 PPG and they’ve only topped 20 points once the entire season. In their 2 games vs top 10 defenses this season (Denver & Indy) the Texans averaged just 14.5 PPG and 260 YPG. Those were their first 2 games of the season and since that Houston has played 5 teams with defenses ranked 15th or lower. Tonight they face a Philly stop unit that ranks 3rd in total defense, 2nd in YPP defense, and has allowed an average of 13.8 PPG over their last 6 games. Houston games are averaging 39 total points this season while Philly games are averaging 45, both under this posted number. These two are both slower paced teams ranking 19th and 21st so plays should be limited here especially if the Eagles build and lead and milk the clock. We anticipate this game landing in the low 40’s and we’ll grab the Under. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cincinnati defense has quietly become one of the best in the NFL this season. Ranked 6th overall DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and they’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in every game (in regulation) with the exception of their match up vs New Orleans. The impressive part about their defensive performance this season is they’ve faced the 8th toughest offensive schedule thus far. We expect this defense to have success vs a Cleveland offense that started the season red hot but has tailed off scoring 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 2 contests, the Browns have scored a total of 35 points and averaged just 332 total yards vs defenses ranked 23rd (Baltimore) and 15th (New England). The Browns will run the ball a lot (32 carries per game – 5th in the NFL) and they will be without TE Njoku who has become QB Brissett’s favorite target with 34 receptions on the season. The Cleveland defense has been up and down this season but they get two huge contributors back tonight with DE’s Garrett and Clowney both expected to play. They’re coming off their most impressive defensive performance of the season holding a very potent Baltimore offense to just 254 total yards on only 4.0 YPP. Their weakness this season has been vs the run but last week kept Baltimore (3rd in the NFL in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. We’re not sure Cincinnati can even take advantage of Cleveland if they do struggle to stop the run here as they run the ball very little (36% of the time) and they average just 87 YPG on the ground. The Bengal passing game takes a huge hit with WR Chase out – top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD’s. Division Totals 25-10 to the UNDER entering Sunday and we’ll call for another one on Monday night. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 42 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We were on this UNDER the first time these 2 met this season back in September and we’re on it again. In that game the total was set at 42 points and it was an easy Under with SF winning 24-9. The 2 teams combined for only 584 total yards on 4.7 YPP. This rivalry has now played to the Under in 5 of the last 6 meetings and they’ve averaged just 40 total points in those 6 games. The defenses are the superior units on both teams. They both rank in the top 5 in total defense and they know each other very well. San Fran is coming off by far their worst defensive performance of the season allowing 44 points to a potent KC offense so you can expect the Niners stop unit to play with a chip on their shoulder here. Prior to that SF was allowing only 14.8 PPG. The Rams defense has been lights out as well since their opening season loss to Buffalo where they allowed 31 points. Since that game LA is giving up only 19 PPG. Offensively the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season averaging only 17 PPG (29th in the NFL) after putting up 27 PPG (6th in the NFL) last year. San Francisco isn’t a whole lot better averaging just over 20 PPG on the season and they will be without one of their top offensive weapons, WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who will sit with an injury. In the first meeting Samuel accounted for 117 to SF’s 327 total yards. The Niners offense has faced only 2 top 10 defenses this season (current ranking) and they have averaged just 17 PPG in those 2. The Rams have faced 3 top 10 defenses this season and they have scored only 29 total points in those games (9.6 PPG). Division Totals are 25-10 to the Under this season and we see another low scoring game here. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go. |
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10-30-22 | Wyoming v. Hawaii UNDER 51 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
#193/194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Wyoming vs Hawaii, Saturday at 12 Midnight ET - We have 2 of the worst offenses in college football in this game and we do not see them reaching 50 points. Hawaii ranks 115th in total offense (out of 131) and Wyoming ranks 114th. If we subtract games vs FCS opponents and any OT points, Wyoming is averaging 21 PPG which would rank them outside the top 100 and Hawaii is averaging just 17 PPG ranking them 115th. Both teams are slower paced as well with Wyoming ranking 108th averaging 1 offensive snap every 27 seconds and Hawaii averages 1 play every 25 seconds which is 54th nationally. Needless to say this should be a slower paced game without many offensive snaps. Defensively Wyoming is quite solid. They rank 55th in total YPG allowed and give up only 5.3 YPP. The Cowboys have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their last 2 opponents, Utah State & New Mexico, have very similar offensive numbers to Hawaii and Wyoming held them each to just 14 points. Hawaii’s defense does not have impressive year long numbers. However, they played some very impressive offenses early in the season including Michigan & Western Kentucky and gave up piles of yards and points in those games so the year long numbers aren’t overly accurate. As of late and playing lower tier offenses comparable to Wyoming, the Hawaii defense has been impressive. They have allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games including 16, 16, and 17 points the last 3 weeks after they had their bye back on October 1st. Last year these 2 faced off and scored 52 points and both offenses were drastically better than this year’s versions. We just don’t see either team doing much offensively here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - TB’s offense is broken right now. They rank 22nd in total offense, 26th in scoring offense and 32nd, dead last, in rushing offense. They have been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their 7 games and the last two weeks they scored 18 vs Pittsburgh (ranked 28th in total defense) and 3 points vs Carolina (ranked 18th in total defense). Their games this season are averaging just 35 total points. The Baltimore defense is allowing 23 PPG, however much of that game in a game they allowed 42 points vs Miami early in the season when the Fins were coming from behind and put up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Minus that game the Ravens defense has been quite solid giving up an average of 19.8 PPG. The Baltimore offense got off to a hot start this season but they have not topped 23 points in any of their last 4 games, all going Under the total. These 2 teams have combined to play 14 games this season with only 3 going Over the total. With the spread as of this writing sitting at TB -1, the expected final score would be right around 23-22 or 24-22 in favor of the Bucs. We don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under on Thursday night. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
#363/364 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 58.5 Points - Eastern Michigan vs Ball State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Let’s start with the defenses in this game, or should we say the lack of defense. In terms of basic scoring defense these two units rank near the bottom of college football in points allowed per game with EMU giving up 32.7PPG (113th) while Ball State allows 29.3PPG (89th). Both teams allow 5.3-Yards Per Play which is slightly above the national average, but these two teams have played the 124th and 119th easiest schedule. Ball State is 95th in Yards Per Point defense allowing 1-point for every 13 yards gained. EMU is 120th in YPPT defense giving up a point for every 11.6 yards gained. The offenses for both teams have had some highs and lows this season. Eastern Michigan has scored 30 or more points in 3 games against FBS schools but are coming off 10-points last week against Northern Illinois. UNI dominated the time of possession with their running game (287-rush yards) that is 29th best in the nation, which limited the Eagles offensive opportunities. That won’t be the case here as Ball State is 83rd in rushing at 133.7RYPG. Ball State is averaging 25.7PPG on the season but 30.3PPG in conference play. Pace of play favors a high scoring game here also with Ball State ranking as the 8th fastest paced team in college football, Eastern ranks 42nd. Historically this has been a high scoring series with 5 of the last six meetings going Over the total and 13 of the last sixteen overall. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Saints were without 7 offensive starters to end last game and could struggle here vs a surging Arizona defense. New Orleans is in shambles at the WR position with Thomas and Landry most likely out again. Olave looks like he may come back. Both QB’s for the Saints – Winston & Dalton – are injured and were limited in practice and they’re on a short week. Arizona’s defense has played outstanding the last 3 weeks limiting their opponents to 12, 20, and 19 points. The last 2 results listed were impressive holding 2 top 8 scoring offenses, Philly & Seattle, well below their season average point totals. Along with that, the Cardinal defense limited Seattle to just 4.5 YPP (they average 6.2 YPP) and Philadelphia to 5.0 YPP (they average 5.6 YPP). We look for New Orleans banged up offense to struggle here. On the other side, the Arizona offense has been poor all season long. Last week they averaged only 4.4 YPP and scored 3 offensive points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in total defense and YPP allowed. The only TD Arizona came up with was a defensive scored. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPP at only 4.8. They do get WR Hopkins back for this game from a suspension but he hasn’t played all year so we don’t expect a huge jump. While Hopkins returns, the Cardinals lose WR Brown to injury and he has been their top WR this year so those 2 things offset each other. New Orleans defense is much healthier than their offense at this point. They have given up some points over the last 3 games vs Cincinnati, Seattle, and Minnesota but they are still limiting opponents to 2.5 red zone scoring attempts per game and 1.2 red zone TD’s per game which both rank 5th best in the NFL. They’ve been a bit unlucky allowing opponents to score 1 point for every 13 yards gained which ranks them 31st in that category after ranking 6th last year (1 point for every 16 yards gained by opponents). We think the Saints defense will look much better in this game vs one of the worst offenses in the league so far this season. Unders continue to rule the day in the NFL with a record of 56-36 (61%) on the season and this total is set 2 points higher than the average NFL score in 2022 which is 43 total points. Under is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 41.5 Points - Carolina Panthers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in the NFL go at it in this one. Football Outsiders DVOA have these offenses rated 31st (Carolina) and 26th (LA). The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in total offense (YPG) and the Rams rank 26th . When it comes to scoring the Rams are averaging only 16 PPG (28th) and Carolina has put up 18 PPG (24th). Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses. Carolina did give up a season high 37 points to San Francisco last weekend, however the Niners scored on an interception return for TD and a 3-yard TD drive after Carolina was stopped on downs. Prior to that the Panthers were allowing just 21 PPG in their first 4 games. They should fare much better than that here vs a Rams offense that has fallen off a cliff this season. LA has been held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this season. Their only halfway decent offensive performance was vs an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball the Rams should have lots of success on defense. They are facing 3rd string QB PJ Walker in this one who steps in for an injured Baker Mayfield. Since giving up 31 points to Buffalo in the season opener, the LA defense has allowed just 5 offensive TD’s in their last 4 games. If we subtract the defensive & special teams TD’s, the Rams are allowing only 15.75 PPG over their last 4 games. Carolina has been held to 16 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they rank dead last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. We can’t imagine they’ll improve with Walker at QB. Under is our play here. |
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10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points. |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG. |
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10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This has been an extremely high scoring series as of late with each of the last 4 getting to at least 55 points. The last 4 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have averaged 62.5 PPG. KC’s offense looks a bit different without WR Hill, however they have still been extremely efficient scoring 1 point for every 11.9 yards gained which is tops in the NFL. They have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their 4 games and they’ve already topped 40 points twice this season. Mahomes has been brilliant when he starts vs the Raiders scoring at least 30 points in all but 1 game with an average of 37 PPG. He should light it up again tonight vs a LV defense that ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage, 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 24th in YPG allowed through the air. This will be the worst pass defense Mahomes has faced this season. Can the Raiders keep up here? That will be the key because we don’t want KC to get out to a big lead and milk the clock. We think they can. Vegas has scored at least 22 points in 3 of their 4 games and they rank 8th in the NFL in scoring efficiency putting up 1 point for every 14.8 yards gained. QB Carr has been a bit up and down this season but he should play well tonight vs a KC defense that is allowing a completion rate of almost 71% (31st in the NFL) and one that ranks 27th in total pass YPG allowed. They’ve been able to move the ball on offense ranking 11th in YPG but they’ve stalled in the red zone with just a 44% rate once they get inside the 20 yard line. The Raiders have gotten into the red zone an average of 4.5 times per game which is 2nd in the NFL only behind tonight’s opponent the Chiefs. The weather is perfect in KC tonight with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We expect lots of scoring opportunities tonight and this one goes OVER the total |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This total is currently set at 43 points which may seem low but the average points scored thus far in the NFL is 42.8 per game so this is a tick higher than the average. We think it should be set lower than this. The LA Rams offense has dropped off a cliff this year ranking 31st in YPP and 28th in total offense while averaging just 17.5 PPG. They have faced 2 top tier defenses this year in Buffalo and San Francisco and the Rams scored 10 & 9 points in those 2 games. This Dallas defense is on the same tier. They are allowing only 15.5 PPG on the season and they rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 1 point for every 19.9 yards gained. The Dallas offense is not good. Cooper Rush will be playing his 3rd game at QB so teams now have some film on him and we look for him to struggle. The Boys rank 26th in total offense and average less than 18 PPG. The Rams D is middle of the pack in most key categories this year but we think they are better than that and they shouldn’t need to be great here vs a fairly pedestrian Dallas offense. Dallas games have averaged 33 total points this season and LA Rams games have averaged 41 total points, both below this total. We feel the defenses are the superior unit on both teams this season and we like UNDER the total in this one. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host. |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot. |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on 8* OVER 57.5 Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers, 7:30 PM ET - In Friday night's action we like OVER the total in the Houston/Memphis game. These two teams met last year with Houston winning 31-13. The Cougs put up 462-total yards in the game compared to the Tigers 322. The difference this year is that Houston isn’t near as good defensively as they were a season ago. Last year the Cougars were 16th in Yards Per Play defense at 4.9 and gave up just 22PPG. This season they allow 5.5YPP (65th) and 34PPG (98th) respectively. This Memphis offense is more than capable of putting up points in this game as they rank 25th in scoring at 34.4PPG. The Tigers rank 17th in Yards Per Point offense at 11.7 so they score with bigger plays and not time-consuming drives. Memphis will also have a hard time stopping this Houston offense that is putting up 31PPG and 391YPG. The Tigers have given up 32+ points against the three good offenses they’ve faced this season and have allowed 28 or more points in 6 of their last eight games dating back to last season. Houston should be able to exploit a Memphis pass defense that is 123rd in the nation allowing 288-passing yards per game. An average college game this season finishes with 58 total points. This game is going to be higher scoring than ‘average’ given the pace of play and offensive/defensive advantages. BET OVER! |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - NFL scoring as a whole is down this season with the average total points scored in a game being 42.8PPG. Last year at this same time NFL games were averaging 47PPG. In this contest we get two struggling offenses and two upper echelon defenses. The Colts are 25th in Yards Per Play offense this season at 5.0, Denver is 16th at 5.4. When it comes to total yards per game, passing YPG, rushing YPG and points scored these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every statistical offensive category. When it comes to scoring, both teams have been awful with the Broncos averaging 16.5PPG (30th) and the Colts scoring 14.3PPG which is last in the NFL. When it comes to the all-important Yards Per Point statistics, these two are last and next to last in the NFL taking more than 20-yards to score 1-point. The defenses for each team are a different story though with the Colts allowing 297YPG (6th best) and the Broncos giving up 284.8YPG (4th). These two defenses don’t give up big plays either with Denver allowing 4.9-Yards Per Play, Indianapolis gives up 4.9. Denver is allowing 17PPG on the season, Indianapolis gives up 21.3PPG. The Colts are on a 9-0 Under streak their last nine games, Denver is Under in 11 of their last fifteen overall. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#259/260 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 LA Chargers vs Houston Texans, 1 PM ET - Injuries have potentially derailed the Charger season with QB Herbert nursing a rib injury, DE Joey Bosa out with a groin injury and multiple O-line men out for the season. The injuries on the O-line have forced the Chargers to start two rookies who have been outmatched early on. With that thought in mind we expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Chargers as they try to protect Herbert and exploit the Texans weakness defensively. Houston is 32nd or last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3 on 5.6-yards per rush given up. LAC has struggled to run the football at 2.6-yards per carry and 59-yards per game, but they’ve also faced the best rush D in the NFL in Jacksonville and the 9th best in KC. The Chargers have faced three quality offenses in Jacksonville (6th total YPG), Kansas City (7th) and the Raiders who are 18th so their points per game allowed of 28PPG is higher than it should be. Houston on the other hand is 29th in total yards per game gained at 287.3YPG, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and 26th in PPG so don’t expect a huge scoring game from them. These two teams rank 19th and 23rd in Yards Per Point offense meaning they lack big plays and tend to grind out drives for scores. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays. |
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10-01-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
#211/212 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – Indiana vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in college football so we expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game. Indiana runs a play every 17 seconds which is 1st in the nation and Nebraska every 22 seconds which is 15th nationally. The defenses in this match up should provide lots of scoring opportunities to their opponents. The Husker defense has been brutal all season long. Throwing out their game vs FCS North Dakota, the Nebraska defense is allowing 42 PPG on the season vs Northwestern, Georgia Southern, and Oklahoma. Each of those teams scored their season high in points (minus FCS games) vs this Nebraska defense. Even a fairly pedestrian NW offense put up 31 points and over 500 yards! They rank outside the top 100 in scoring, rush & pass defense. The Huskers did fire their defensive coordinator after allowing 49 points to Oklahoma and appointed Bill Busch, their special teams coordinator to call plays on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t think it will matter. If the Huskers were EVER going to rally and play tough on defense it was after they fired head coach Frost going into their game vs Oklahoma. They fell flat again on that side of the ball giving up almost 600 yards. The Hoosier offense has been a bright spot this year averaging over 400 YPG and 29 PPG. Even vs 2 top tier defenses (Illinois & Cincinnati) both in the top 11 nationally in YPP allowed, the Hoosiers scored 23 and 24 points. On the other side of the ball the Indiana defense has not been good allowing 75 points in their last 2 games vs WKU & Cincinnati. Last week the Bearcats had 38 points at halftime before calling off the dogs in a 45-24 win. While their defense has been poor, the Nebraska offense has moved the ball this year averaging 455 YPG which ranks them 31st nationally. QB Thompson, a Texas transfer, has been solid averaging 250 YPG passing on 65% completions. He should shred an IU defense that has allowed almost 700 yards passing the last 2 weeks. Last year these 2 met in Indiana and the final score was 38-31 with almost 1,000 yards of total offense. We anticipate a fast paced, high scoring game in Lincoln on Saturday. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
#489/490 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Neither offense has looked good thus far with the Giants scoring 40 points in 2 games while Dallas has put up just 23 points. The Giants are averaging 5.0 YPP this season (20th in the NFL) and Dallas just 4.7 YPP (31st). With the Cowboys playing a back up QB (Rush) we expect them to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit tonight. The NY defense has been susceptible to the run this season allowing 4.9 YPC and look for Dallas to lean on RB’s Elliott and Pollard rather than a QB making his 3rd career start. The Giants already run the ball often averaging 33 carries per game which is 5th most in the NFL. Jones is an average at best QB who has averaged just 18 PPG in his 8 prime time appearances. Needless to say, we don’t expect either signal caller to light it up through the air tonight. Overall both defenses look like the stronger units in each team with each ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. Each has given up just 36 total points so far on the season. The ground games of each team will eat clock tonight and with the anticipated lack of big plays from the QB position, this game turns into a grinder. Take the Under. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#463/464 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 53 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo has put up 72 points in 2 games and we don’t see Miami slowing them down here. The Fins actually rank dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.8 and in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.7. In 2 games last year vs the Fins the Buffalo Bills scored 61 points and we see no reason to think they won’t top 30 again. The difference this year? Miami’s offense looks like they’ll be able to keep up. They scored 42 points last week in a win @ Baltimore and QB Tagovailoa had 6 TD passes. The Fins put up a ridiculous 547 total yards in the game and they are tied with Buffalo with the 2nd best YPP offense in the NFL at 6.7. While the Bills defense has been solid, they faced the Rams with QB Stafford’s injured elbow and a Tennessee team that lost all of their key WR’s from last year and have downgraded fairly big on the offensive line. Sunday will be a different animal for the Buffalo defense to face and they are really banged up on the D Line and in the secondary with both starting safeties potentially out along with starting CB Jackson (out). Miami’s defense looked good vs a pedestrian New England offense (12 PPG on the season) but last week they were blitzed for 38 points vs Baltimore. Buffalo scored 41 points last week in the first THREE QUARTERS and then didn’t score after that because they had a huge lead. We don’t foresee the Bills shutting down Miami so both teams will have to keep scoring in this one. Over is the play. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – Northern Illinois vs Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that stood out to us immediately was the pace of play for both teams. Kentucky takes 29.2 seconds to run a play which is the 123rd slowest tempo in college football. NIU plays at the exact same pace. UK is 111th in plays per game at 62.5. No. Illinois is 107th at 63-plays per/game. With a limited number of plays that means you need big plays to score a lot of points. UK is 78th in Yards Per Play at 5.3, NIU is 49th at 5.9. Kentucky hosted another MAC team in Miami OH earlier this season and that game finished with 50-total points. MIA OH was predicted as the best team in the conference in preseason rankings and they managed just 290-total yards of offense and 13-points against the Cats. Northern Illinois has given up 38-points in each of their last two games, but those big numbers came against the 14th highest scoring team in CFB and the 26th highest. Both teams have big conference games on deck so expect a sluggish game throughout. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#291/292 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - First off the weather looks good tonight in Philly. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70’s with very light winds. There is a chance of rain but not much and if it does rain it looks spotty. Key is the wind (5 MPH) which won’t affect either passing game. Both offenses looked in midseason form last week with Philly putting up 6.3 YPP vs Detroit and Minnesota averaging 6.5 YPP vs Green Bay. The Eagles had 38 points through 3 quarters and took their foot off the gas up 17 which almost cost them. They didn’t put up a single point in the 4th yet still almost hit 40. Minnesota had 23 points vs GB but were able to rely heavily on the run after building a 20-0 lead. After getting up by 20, the Vikings ran another 26 offensive plays and 16 of those were runs as they were taking time off the clock. In the first half when using the full complement of their offense, Minnesota was able to score points in 3 of their 6 possessions including 2 TD’s. Neither defense was great at the line of scrimmage with each allowing more than 6 YPC last week. Now with both facing solid rushing attacks we should see similar results tonight which will really open up the passing attack on each side. Both teams were successful running the ball last week and that led to Hurts & Minny QB Cousins to combine for 41 completions in 64 attempts for 520 passing yards. And remember, Cousins was facing one of the top secondary’s in the NFL (Packers). We also expect a faster than normal paced game in this one. Last week Minnesota and GB each ran 61 plays and that was with the Vikings milking the clock in the 4th quarter and the Packers were the slowest paced team in the NFL last season and we expect them to look the same this year. Philly & Detroit ran a total of 138 offensive snaps in an up tempo game. The projected score at this total is Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 23 and our model has both of these teams scoring above those numbers. Over is the play tonight. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#263/264 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins. We expect a similar situation on Sunday. Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game. The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season. Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season. In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD. Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP). The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards. They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach. The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game. In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game. There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD. There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer. The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here. Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL. Running eats clock and shortens the game. These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points. The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number. Under is the play. |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points. |
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09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win. |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State. |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams UNDER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one. |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game. |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 52.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 52.5 Penn State @ Purdue – Thursday Sept 1 8 PM ET - These two haven’t met since 2019 – Penn State has won 8 straight going back to 2006. 15-3-1 SU since 1951. FINISH TO LAST YEAR - Penn State finished last season with a Bowl loss to Arkansas (10-24). Purdue off a Bowl win over Tennessee 48-45. QUARTERBACK PLAY - Both teams have experience at the QB position with 6th year players. Aidan O’Connell for Purdue completed over 71% of his attempts last year (did throw 11 INT’s). He threw for over 370 yards 6 times last year including a pair of 500+ yard performances. Sean Clifford will be the Nittany Lions starter this season. Clifford has a chance to finish his PSU career as the #1 QB in passing yards, TD’, pass attempts and completions. Penn State also has RB Lee back and a talented WR corps but must replace the O-line. Penn State averaged 23.9PPG but should also score against the Boilermakers who also have misleading defensive numbers from a year ago. PURDUE DEFENSE MISLEADING STATS FROM LAST YEAR (Similar schedule to PSU) - Purdue allowed 29 or more points in the second half of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Tennessee. PURDUE OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE: Purdue was 22nd in total yards per game offensively (440.3YPG) and averaged 29.1PPG. PENN STATE DEFENSE OVER-RATED: The Lions must replace 7 of last year's top 11 tacklers from their defense that allowed just 17.3PPG (6th best) and their defensive coordinator. PSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading based on their schedule. The Lions faced 5 teams that ranked 107th or worse in total offense last season. KEY OFFENSIVE NUMBERS FOR BOTH: Both teams ranked top 31 in 3rd down conversions a year ago, so both have the ability to keep their offenses on the field. Purdue was 22nd in plays per game at 76.2, Penn State was 29th at 74.1. Purdue 21-14-2 OVER at home since 2016. Purdue 67% returning production – Penn State 65% |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
#299/300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska @ Dublin, Ireland, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - We expect the defenses to control this opener in Ireland. Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator with Mark Whipple coming in from Pitt. They also have a new QB in Texas transfer Casey Thompson. While we expect the offense to look solid as the year progresses, early in the season will be an adjustment learning the new system. Whipple had 1st round pick Kenny Pickett as his QB at Pitt which helped open things up as he watched the offense improve by nearly 100 YPG last season compared to their 2020 numbers. Prior to Pickett taking off, the Pitt offense averaged just 331 YPG their previous 3 seasons combined. Our word is Whipple wants to run the ball quite a bit if possible and his mantra has been “don’t lose the game with mistakes” especially early in the season. That tells us he will be fairly conservative. We expect NW’s offense to struggle as they averaged just 16 PPG last year which ranked them 125th nationally. They were held to 14 points or less in 7 of their 9 Big 10 games. Their QB Hilinski started 5 games last year but wasn’t great completing just 54% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions on the season. Nebraska’s defense held NW to 7 points last year and was solid ranking 36th nationally holding their opponents to 5.2 YPP. We expect them to be better this year. The NW defense was bad last year. They allowed 6.3 YPP after giving up just 4.8 YPP the year prior. In fact, 3 of the 4 years prior to last season, the Wildcat defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in YPP allowed. Head coach Fitzgerald is a great defensive coach and we expect a big jump from that unit this year. NW will attempt to make this a slow paced, grind it out game. That’s what we anticipate with points hard to come by. Play the Under. |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -101 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Rams have quietly had a dominating run through the playoffs vs very solid opponents. They have outgained the Cards, Bucs, and Niners by a combined 1200 yards to just 824 for their opponents. Their defense has dominated, holding those opponents to an average of 4.7 YPP and just 18 PPG. To give you an idea of how good those numbers are, Buffalo led the entire NFL this year allowing opponents to average 4.8 YPP. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed 5.9 YPP in the playoffs while gaining only 5.3 YPP. They’ve been outgained in all 3 games yet still won. Their offense has had 34 possessions in the post-season and scored only 5 TD’s. And those were vs defenses all inferior to this LA Rams unit. They’ve benefited from a +5 turnover margin in the playoffs which has kept them alive. We just don’t see the Bengals doing much offensively here. They’ll struggle to run vs a Ram defensive front that hasn’t allowed a single TEAM in the playoffs to reach 65 rushing yards. If the Bengals are forced into obvious passing downs, the Rams defensive front is the best in the NFL at creating pressure while the Cincinnati offensive line is one of the worst pass protecting units in the league. The Rams are built for the Super Bowl. They’ve had a number of key player additions this season (QB Stafford, WR Beckham & LB Miller to name a few) in their quest to get to this point. This was their goal from the beginning of the season. Cincinnati wasn’t expected to be here and based on their stats thus far in the playoffs, they probably shouldn’t be here. LA lost in the Super Bowl a few years ago and are accustomed to this spot. Cincy is not and had to travel for the 3rd straight time in the playoffs. We don’t think the Rams will have a home field advantage per se, however not having to travel is a bonus. If the turnovers stay even in this game, we have little doubt the Rams win and cover this number. Of course, we have no way of projecting that and TO’s are a huge predictor in the outcome. There is often little to no value so to speak in the Super Bowl line or total. That stands again this year as we have LA favored by exactly 4 with our power ratings. Despite that, we’ll simply side with the better overall team who proved they deserve to be here. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – LA Rams vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this year and the total was set at 55 points and the final score was Rams 34, Bucs 24 and the 2 combined for almost 900 yards of offense. This total is set a full TD lower which is too large of an over adjustment in our opinion. Our numbers have this total at 51 so value on the Over. Tampa is the 2nd highest scoring home team in the NFL averaging 33 PPG and that’s including a game where they were SHUT OUT by New Orleans. If you take out that one game vs the Saints, the Bucs scored at least 30 points in every other home game and averaged almost 38 PPG. Last week they had 31 points vs the Eagles with over 5:00 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER but had a huge lead, called off the dogs and didn’t score again. The Rams lit up the Cards last week for 34 points and in a similar situation to Tampa, 28 of those 34 points were scored with still over 4:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter and because they had such a big lead the Rams were able to dial it back and run clock on offense. The Rams were able to run the ball effectively last week once they got the lead (38 rush attempts) but that may change this week. Tampa is very good vs the run (3rd in the NFL) so we look for LA to air it out. The strength of both offenses is their passing attack (TB #1 in YPG passing and LA 5th) and the weakness of both defenses is vs the pass (TB 22nd in YPG passing allowed and LA 21st). Tampa played a lot of up tempo offense last week vs Philly and we expect the same here. Both teams like to push the pace with the Bucs ranking 4th in pace of play and the Rams 11th. Tampa games averaged 51 total points this year and LA averaged 49 total points and this total is set lower than both. Weather looks good in Tampa and we envision this one as a game where each offense needs to keep up on the scoreboard. The projected final based on the spread and total is Tampa 25.5, LA 22.5 and we have both offenses topping those projections. Take the OVER in this one. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 49.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late). |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like UGA to win this rematch after getting embarrassed a month ago in the SEC Championship game. We’re getting value with the Dawgs in this one favored by 2.5 after being favored by 6.5 in the first meeting. The line has moved a full 4 points based on just one data point which was the first meeting. Georgia was the best team in the country all season long and we don’t think one hiccup changes that. Prior to the meeting in the SEC Championship Georgia was the much more dominant team. Their defense didn’t allow more than 17 points in any game and they won every game but one by at least 3 scores. Bama lost to a A&M team that finished with 4 losses and had 4 other games decided by one score. For the season, prior meeting included, UGA has dominated opponents with a +3.0 YPP differential while Alabama is +2.1 in that category. The Dawgs are also the healthier team entering this game as Bama will be without top WR Metchie (who had 97 yards receiving & a TD in first match up), their top CB Jobe is out, and a few starting offensive linemen may not play. The Georgia defense, the best in the country, will be salty to prove a point here after allowing a ridiculous 536 yards in the first meeting (UGA had 450 yards). Two interceptions by Georgia QB Bennett, one returned for a TD, didn’t help matters. There is a misnomer that floats around this time of year that Alabama HC Saban is simply unbeatable when he gets to this game. Not true. The Tide has been to the CFB Championship game 5 times, they are 3-2 SU in those games and 1-4 ATS. We’ve had UGA power rated all season long as the best team and we’ll stick with that. The revenge situation makes this even better. Take Georgia. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Las Vegas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This one is for all the marbles. The winner makes the playoffs and the loser is eliminated. Charger games average 54 total points which is the most in the NFL. This offense is clicking to say the least 28 points in each of their last 4 games. LA has gone Over the total in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. While their offense is one of the best in the NFL, their defense has been one of the worst ranking 30th in rushing defense, 23rd in overall defense, and 26th in scoring defense. Over their last 10 games only 1 team failed to reach 21 points on this LA defense and that was Denver last week with Drew Lock at QB. If you throw out the Chargers first 4 games of the season where the defense seemed to be playing pretty well, they have allowed an average of 29 PPG over the last 12. The Raider defense has decent overall numbers but their solid defensive performances have come vs poor offenses. Just in the last 10 games they’ve faced 4 offenses ranked 20th or lower in scoring (Washington, NY Giants, Denver, and Cleveland) and allowed an average of 17 PPG. In their other 6 games (over the last 10) Vegas has allowed 33 PPG including giving up 48 & 41 to KC, 33 to Dallas, and 32 to Cincinnati. LV is a middle to upper half of the NFL type offense in YPG (11th), YPP (9th) & PPG (18th) but we like them to have success at home here vs a defense that has struggled. Both teams pull out all the stops offensively in this win or go home game and it goes OVER the total in perfect playing conditions in Las Vegas. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a tough week to handicap the NFL as we all know. Who plays their starters if they’ve already clinched a playoff spot? Which teams that are eliminated are still giving effort and who isn’t? Covid situation? We can look to past experience for this one and know that for the most part, Belichick plays his starters late in the season and still plays to win. That’s what we expect from the Pats. On top of that, they do still have something to play for as a win here + a Buffalo loss gives New England the AFC East title. If there is a team that could possibly tank it in this game it’s Miami. They were in the playoff race until last week and now have been eliminated with their 34-3 blowout at the hands of Tennessee. The Fins looked as if they were playing very well entering that game on a 7 game winning streak but they played a bunch of nobodies during that run including the Jets (twice), Texans, Panthers, and Giants. As soon as they stepped up in competition last week they were whitewashed in a game they had to win. They’ve taken care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat covering 6 of their last 7 as a favorite. The Pats only 2 losses since mid October were vs the Bills & Colts, 2 of the best teams in the AFC. This is also a revenger as Miami won at New England in the season opener 17-16. The Patriots dominated the stat sheet in that one (+145 yards) and it was QB Jones first start of his career. The better team with motivation rolls here. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#477/478 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Kansas City vs Denver, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - KC has clinched the AFC West already but they do still potentially have something to play for. If they win and Tennessee loses @ Houston (unlikely) the Chiefs can move up to the #1 seed. We love the way KC’s defense is playing right now. The only 2 poor outings they’ve had over their last 9 games were vs the Bengals & Chargers, two of the better offenses in the NFL. In their other 7 games the KC defense has not allowed more than 17 points and they held 4 of those opponents to 10 points or less. The Denver offense has been terrible as of late scoring 13 or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Bridgewater is out at QB for the Broncos and his back up Lock has done nothing the last 2 weeks. They’ve scored 13 points in each of their last 2 games while totaling 158 yards vs Las Vegas and 319 yards vs the LA Chargers who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (26th in scoring defense). In their last 5 meetings with the Chiefs the Broncos have scored an average of just 10 PPG and they haven’t topped 16 points in any of those games. Earlier this year they scored only 9 points @ KC in a 22-9 loss. Denver will struggle to score here vs this hot KC defense. The Broncos defense is the strength of their team to say the least. They rank 9th in total defense and 3rd in points scored allowing just 18 PPG. They’ve had some solid success vs Mahomes and company holding them to 23 or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The only chance Denver has is to make this a very slow paced type game which they are used to ranking 29th in the NFL in that category. KC may play fast early but if they get a lead they are known for milking the clock in the 2nd half (15th in 2nd half pace) in that situation. The Under is 5-1-1 the last 7 in this AFC West rivalry and we expect another one here. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#285/286 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Kansas State vs LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this game. KSU’s defense ranks 64 spots higher than their offense (37th to 101st) and LSU’s defense ranks 34 spots higher than their offense (63rd to 87th). Both defenses were playing very well down the stretch with KSU holding each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less and LSU held their last 4 opponents to an average of 17 PPG – which included Bama, Arkansas, and A&M. The Tigers have had a number of opt outs and transfers on both sides of the ball. They are still very talented and fast on defense but the biggest impact will be at QB. They are left with 2 walk on QB’s who’ve never played in a game so their offense can be expected to struggle big time vs a solid KSU defense. They are also a poor running team ranking 117th nationally and lost their top RB after the season so these QB’s will have to play way above their head for LSU to put significant points on the board. While the Cats do have their full complement of offensive players for this one, they were far from explosive ranking outside the top 100 in total offense. They are also the 3rd slowest paced team in all of the bowl games so that should eat clock as well. We think the LSU defense will be fine here and will keep the Wildcat offense in check. The LSU offense with no scholarship QB will have problems. Under is the play. |
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01-03-22 | Browns +3 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +3 over Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Line value here on the Browns. They were favored by 3 in this game before officially getting eliminated from the playoffs and the line has moved to the Steelers now favored. This move is assuming the Browns will lay down here with no post-season ahead for them. We disagree. Cleveland would like nothing better than to knock of their AFC North rivals as Pittsburgh battles for a potential playoff berth. To add to their potential motivation this is also a revenger with Pittsburgh winning 15-10 on Oct 31st. The Browns are fairly healthy and the better team in this match up. Cleveland ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 8th in defensive YPP. The Steelers rank 27th and 25th in those categories. Despite Pitt still being alive for the playoffs they have a -0.7 YPP differential while the Browns are +0.4 in that category. This is a bad match up for Pittsburgh’s defense as they rank 31st at stopping the run and they are facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 3rd and put up 219 yards on the ground vs Green Bay last week. They actually outplayed the Packers in Lambeau (6.2 YPP to 5.4 YPP for Packers) but had 4 turnovers. The Steelers have been a terrible favorite this year (1-5 ATS) while the Browns have been a money maker as an underdog (4-2 ATS). With the cold weather in the Steel City tonight, we like the underdog that can run the ball vs the favorite who can’t (Pitt 29th in rushing). Take the points. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -3 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
#120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Miami has won 7 in a row to get back into the playoff discussion but they’ve played a brutally easy for the season (29th SOS) and especially as of late. Those wins came vs Jets twice, Houston, NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans and Baltimore. Minus the Ravens, the QB’s they’ve faced during this run were Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. They’ve played 15 games this yar and only 6 of those opponents are in playoff contention. The Fins are 2-4 SU in those games with one of those wins coming by 1 points vs New England in the season opener and all 4 losses coming by double digits. Average margin in those 6 games is -12.5 PPG for Miami. The Titans have the better record (10-5 – Miami 8-7) despite playing the much tougher schedule (2nd SOS). While Miami has struggled vs good competition, Tennessee has wins over Buffalo, KC, Indy (twice), LA Rams, and San Francisco. This situation sets up very nicely as well with Tennessee having extra time after beating SF on a Thursday while the Fins have a short week off a win @ New Orleans on Monday night. Tennessee’s defense should be able to make Miami one-dimensional in this game as the Fins can run (30th in the NFL) and Tennessee is very good at stopping the run (2nd in the NFL). Thus, this game could fall on the shoulders for Miami QB Tagovailoa and we don’t trust him on the road vs a defense that is playing well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to 22 points or less. Lay it with Tennessee. |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State +100 v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
#277 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State Money Line +100 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have OSU as the favorite here so we feel the value is on the Cowboys. The Okie State defense ranks 3rd nationally behind only Georgia and Wisconsin. They are equally proficient at stopping the run (5th nationally) and the pass (10th). Facing a fairly pedestrian Notre Dame offense ranked 43rd in YPP and 56th in total offense. The Irish closed out the regular season facing 3 defenses ranked 114th or lower and faced just 2 top 25 defenses this season. In those games they averaged just 3.5 YPP (vs Wisconsin) and 4.6 YPP (vs Cincinnati). The ND QB Coan is not a someone that can carry a team on his shoulders without a decent running game. They averaged 151 YPG rushing this year but that won’t happen in this game facing an OSU defense that allows 2.7 YPC. On top of that the Irish are without their top RB Williams who has over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 400 yards receiving. They will struggle offensively in this game. The Cowboy offense, on the other hand, gets a key component back on their offense with RB Warren returning (1,200 yards rushing and 11 TD’s). He missed the Big 12 Championship game which was a 21-16 loss vs Baylor. The Cowboys outplayed the Bears in that game outgaining them by almost 100 yards, but 4 turnovers killed. That included 2 interceptions that led to quick TD drives of 11 yards and 37 yards by the Bears. OSU has played the tougher schedule (9th SOS to 47th for ND) and they still have the better numbers (+130 YPG and +1.1 YPP differential compared to Notre Dame +77 YPG and +0.9 YPP). OSU coach Gundy is experienced in coach bowl games and has done well with a 10-5 ATS record while new ND HC Freeman has never led his team in a bowl game. OSU is the better team with the better defense and getting points. We’ll take that. |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas v. Penn State OVER 48 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
#275/276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Penn State vs Arkansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Penn State had a solid defense this year (34th in total defense) but they won’t be even close to full strength here. That’s because they had 5 starters opt out on that side of the ball. Some of their top defensive players that combined to account for over 300 total tackles, 36.5 for loss and 12.5 sacks defensively. On top of that PSU lost their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. We expect Arkansas to have very good success offensively here. The Razors averaged 31 PPG on the season and scored at least 30 in 4 of their last 5 including putting up 35 points on Alabama. Their PPG season number was skewed as well after putting up 0 points vs Georgia, the best defense in the country, take that game out and they averaged 35 PPG. Defensively the Razorbacks were shaky this year. They finished 69th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed and PSU finished 22nd in passing offense. Arkansas had some solid defensive performances in the non-conference slate but once they hit SEC play they allowed 30 PPG. Both teams like to play fairly fast with PSU 12th in pace of play for bowl teams and Arkansas is 25th. With Razors favored by 2 the projected score here is 25-23. Our projections have both teams topping those numbers. Take the OVER here. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#269 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -7.5 over Michigan, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is off. We have UGA as a 10 point favorite here. Way too much overreaction to the last few games of the season has pushed this number too low. For comparison’s sake, OSU was favored by 6.5 or 7 AT Michigan to close out the regular season. Now basically the same number vs UGA, who was the best team in the country for the entire season, on a neutral site? Georgia was favored by 6 vs Alabama in the SEC Championship and now just 1.5 points more vs Michigan? The Wolverines beat OSU at home to close out the season and then crushed a not so good Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. You then had UGA get steamrolled by Bama in the SEC Championship to set up this lower number. We’ll take advantage of it. The Bulldogs defense has been lights and the best in the nation all season long. After giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide to close out the season (although one TD was a Bama pick 6), you can bet this defense is completely jacked to make amends here. Michigan doesn’t have the offense to exploit this defense as Bama did. The Tide of the best QB in college football and a number of NFL ready WR’s. They threw the ball 44 times in that game. Michigan can’t do that. They are built on the running game and their QB McNamara is solid but nowhere near the same caliber as Bama’s Young. Problem is the Bulldogs allow just 83 YPG rushing on 2.7 YPC. On offense we expect UGA QB Bennett to bounce back with a solid effort here. He threw for 340 yards vs Alabama but threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6. Prior to that Bennett had thrown 5 interceptions all season (11 games). These 2 played almost identical SOS’s and Georgia had the far superior stats. The Dawgs were +188 YPG, +3.0 YPP and +30 PPG while Michigan was +135 YPG, +1.8 YPP, and +21 PPG. After their season opener vs Clemson, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 14 points in every game until they met Bama in the SEC Championship. Michigan was an underdog twice this year and favored by less than 10 four other times. Believe it or not, 11 of the 14 College FB Final 4 games have been decided by 10 or more points. Another one here as Georgia gets the cover. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6 over Purdue, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET - Purdue has had some really important players opt out for this game. Their top offensive player and top defensive player will not be playing on Thursday. WR Bell (Big 10 receiver of the year), who had over 1,200 yards receiving, is getting ready for the NFL. The Boilers just announced on Monday that WR Milton will also not be playing in the game and he is 2nd on the team in both receptions and yards. That’s over 2,000 receiving yards and 13 TD’s out of the line up for Purdue. Starting OT Long will also be out due to injury. Defensively this team will be missing DE Karlaftis (one of the top pass rushers in the Big 10 – All Big 10) and top CB Mackey. Offensively losing key weapons at wideout will really put this offense in a bind more so than many teams because they cannot run the bal. Purdue averages just 84 YPG rushing and 2.9 YPC which ranks them below 124th in both (out of 130 teams). They need their passing attack to be humming to be effective. While Purdue had their very best players opting out, Tennessee has had many of their top players commit to coming back next year. That gives this bowl a whole different vibe for the Vols heading into next year. Starting QB Hooker is coming back (2,600 yards passing, 560 yards rushing, 26-3 TD to int ration), top WR Tillman, who would have been drafted, is coming back, along with a few starting offensive lineman who had other options. Those team leaders have stated they wanted to come back to try and win an SEC championship next year but it starts with this bowl game. The Vols are treating this game seriously and will have plenty of crowd support with the game in Nashville. Tennessee’s losses this year came at the hands of Pitt (ACC Champ – UT outgained them in the game), Alabama (SEC Champ), Georgia (#1 team for most of the season), Ole Miss, and Florida (early in the season when the Gators were playing very well). They are MUCH more balanced on offense rushing for 212 YPG and passing for 248 YPG. The Vols scored at least 34 points in 8 of their 12 games including topping 40 points 6 times. These 2 played similar SOS’s but Tennessee has the much better numbers with a +1.2 YPP differential (Purdue +0.3) and +11 PPG differential (Purdue +7). We’re getting what we think is the better team, in a semi-home game, in the much better personnel situation. Tennessee wins this one by at least a TD. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma OVER 60 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#253/254 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Oregon vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9:15 PM ET - Both defenses are playing this game missing a number of key players. Oregon has over 30 guys out due to injuries, opt outs, etc… including 14 in the defensive 2 deep. That includes DE Thibodeaux who is one of the top pass rushers in the nation. The Ducks are actually moving OL to the DL so they have some depth for this game. Oklahoma will be without 3 starting defensive lineman and 4 of their front 7 are not playing in this game. Both offenses have a few guys out but nothing compared to the defenses. Both offense are capable of putting up big numbers as Oklahoma averaged 38 PPG and Oregon averaged 31 PPG this season. Since Williams took over at QB for the Sooners (final 7 games of the season), they have topped 50 points 3 times and been held below 28 just once. They closed out the season scoring 28 vs ISU and 33 vs Oklahoma State, two of the top 8 defenses in the nation. The only Pac 12 team that really slowed down the Ducks offense was Utah. Throw out those 2 games vs the Utes and Oregon put up at least 30 points in 8 of their other 11 games. Now with each offense close to full strength and facing depleted defenses, we anticipate both teams getting into the 30’s in this one. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
#246 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -4.5 over West Virginia, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - The Gophers defense doesn’t get talked about much but they are absolutely one of the best in the nation. They rank 4th nationally in total defense and they only 2 Big 10 games in which they allowed more than 300 yards was vs OSU & Nebraska. In their other 7 conference games the Minnesota defense allowed an average of just 236 YPG. They outgained 7 straight opponents to end the season and in their 4 losses on the season they outgained their opponent in 3 of those games. We like the Gophers to control the trenches here with one of the most experienced offensive lines and a team that averaged 195 YPG on the ground. WVU played well early in the season but finished just 4-5 in the Big 12 and struggled to beat a bad Kansas team by 6 to close out the season. These teams played similar SOS’s and Minnesota had the better overall numbers including +0.5 YPP differential and a +8 PPG point differential (WVU was +0.0 YPP differential and +2 PPG differential). Minnesota also has a HUGE hidden advantage in this game. HC PJ Fleck hired Ciarrocca as his new offensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. He was the Minnesota OC a few years ago and was quite successful before taking the OC job at Penn State. After 1 year at PSU (last year – Covid year) Ciarrocca was fired by PSU head coach Franklin which was absolutely crazy considering the circumstances. He then joined the West Virginia staff as a special offensive assistant THIS SEASON and was with the Mountaineers throughout the regular season. He should have a pretty good idea of how to defend this WVU offense which gives an already very good Gopher defense an edge. We like Minnesota to win this game by at least a TD. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Michigan -7 over Nevada, Monday at 11 AM ET - Nevada has lost almost 20 players to opt out and transfer. Their offense will be without starting QB Strong who is one of the top signal callers in the country. That means the Wolfpack will be starting a freshman who attempted 20 passes this season. That’s not the only missing player as the offense is completely decimated, playing without all 3 starting WR’s, starting TE, and 2 starting OL. So with an inexperienced QB and a number of skill players out, Nevada would probably like to run the ball. The problem is they only averaged 73 YPG rushing this season. So it’s not something they do well. Not only are they missing players, head coach Jay Norvell moved on to Colorado State after the regular season. 6 of 10 assistants are gone as well including OC, DC and special teams coordinator. The MAC has struggled this bowl season but this seems like to spot to jump on Western Michigan. We had them rated as the top team in the league this season even though they didn’t win the conference title. They and the #1 YPG differential in MAC play at +140 (conference games only). The Broncos beat the 2 teams that met in the MAC championship and did so handily beating NIU by 21 and Kent by 33. They had a few slips ups on the way mainly because of turnovers as they actually outgained their opponent in every MAC game they played. This game is in Detroit so nearly a home game for the Broncos. Too many distractions and key personnel losses for Nevada and WMU seems motivated for this one. Lay it. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47 Points – Washington vs Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was a misleading 27-20 in favor of the Cowboys. The 2 had combined for just 35 points with under 6 minutes remaining in the game when Washington scored 2 TD’s in the last 5:09 including a pick 6. Dallas also scored a TD on a fumble return earlier in the game. The fact is the defenses dominated in this game. Dallas averaged just 4.1 YPP while Washington put up only 3.6 YPP. Neither passing game was effective with Dallas barely throwing for 200 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt and Washington throwing for only 124 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. Washington has gone under the total in 80% of their games with the total set at 45 or higher (8-2 to the Under). Dallas is viewed by many as a team that is involved in high scoring games more often than not but the fact is they have topped this total (47) only once in their last 8 games. A big NFC East game with playoff implications (Dallas trying to win the division & Washington trying to stay alive in the playoff race) equates to a low scoring defensive game. Take the UNDER on Sunday night. |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 42 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 42 Points – Chicago vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been brutal all season long ranking 29th in scoring, YPG, and YPP. They have topped 24 points only twice this season and are facing a surging Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or less in 8 straight including 20 last week vs a very good LA Rams offense. They rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 20 PPG on the season so we expect them to shut down Chicago’s offense. On the other side Seattle has really struggled offensively. They have scored an average of just 15 PPG (offensive points) since Russell Wilson returned from injury. As we mentioned above, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in YPG well Seattle sits one spot lower at 30th in that category. Neither offense is good at extending drives ranking 30th and 31st in 3rd down conversion rate. These 2 have combined to play 28 games this season with only 8 going Over the total. We’re looking at possible snow and wind in Seattle on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring grinder. Under is the play. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
#232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia St -5.5 over Ball St, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The MAC continues their terrible bowl run with an 0-4 SU record this year as of this writing (prior to Miami Oh vs North Texas on Thursday) which means this conference is now 7-20 SU their last 27 bowl games. MAC underdogs have been brutal as well with a 20-38-2 ATS record over their last 60. This is a bad match up for Ball State as they struggle to stop the run (93rd nationally) and they are facing a GSU team that ranks 8th nationally averaging 225 YPG rushing. Ball State’s offense has struggled all season as well ranking 109th in total offense so while we don’t see them slowing down Georgia State’s running game, the Cards don’t have the offense to keep up. BSU finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games with their only wins during that stretch coming vs Buffalo (4-8 record) and Akron (2-10 record) and the Cardinals were outgained in each of those wins. Georgia State closed out the season winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UL Lafayette by 4 points. Not a bad loss at all as ULL won the Sun Belt title and beat a solid Marshall team in their bowl by 15 points. This team also nearly beat Auburn on the road in a game they led by 5 with under 1:00 minute remaining. We expect Ga State to run all over Ball State and get the cover. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – San Francisco vs Tennessee, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Titans offense has been flat out bad since they lost Derrick Henry. Over their last 5 games they’ve averaged just 16 PPG and 3 of those games were vs opponents who ranked 22nd or lower in scoring defense (Pitt, Houston, and Jacksonville). They are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL averaging just 2.6 plays per game that average 20+ yards (fewest in NFL). On top of that Tennessee will be without 2 starting offensive linemen for this game. At the same time their offense went south, the Titans defense started to play very well. They have allowed an average of just 19 PPG over their last 6 games holding 5 of those opponents to 22 point or less. SF has been one of the top defenses in the NFL all season long ranking 7th in total defense and 9th in DVOA defense per Football Outsiders. Both are rush heavy teams which eats clock. Tennessee ranks 3rd in the NFL running the ball on 47.6% of their offensive snaps while San Fran ranks 4th in that category at 47.8%. Both teams are also slow paced ranking 25th and 27th in seconds per play. We expect this to be a defensive battle and UNDER is the play. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +2.5 over Miami Oh, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - The MAC conference continues it’s terrible showing in bowl games. They are now 0-4 SU this season and 7-20 SU since 2016. The 2 teams in the MAC that won their respective divisions have already lost this bowl season (NIU & Kent). Miami Oh finished with a 6-6 overall record and beat only 1 team that ended the regular season with a winning record. 3 of their final 4 wins came vs the worst teams in the MAC (Akron, BG, and Buffalo) who had a combined 10-26 record this season. We love the way UNT was playing at the end of the season winning and covering 6 straight. That included a 22 point win over CUSA champs UTSA and a win over UTEP who nearly upset Fresno State in their bowl game. The Mean Green also had a few “impressive” losses @ Liberty, outgaining the Flames by over 100 yards in the loss, and @ Missouri, outgaining the Tigers on their home field. UNT is a great running team ranking 4th nationally averaging 237 YPG on the ground. We love siding with top 10 running teams that can control the line of scrimmage and their bowl history has been great with a 50-28 ATS record the last decade. Miami allowed 151 YPG rushing which ranks them 64th nationally, however they faced 2 top 10 rushing attacks this year (Kent & Army) lost both games and gave up almost 700 combined yards rushing in the process. This will be somewhat of a homefield for North Texas as they are playing just 20 miles from their campus. We think the wrong team is favored here and we like UNT to win this game outright. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#226 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened -3 in favor of Army and is up to -6.5 for good reason. As long as it stays under a TD we like the Cadets in this one. First of all Missouri has some key offensive moves on Tuesday which moved this number. First their top RB Badie, who led the SEC in rushing yards, will not play in this game. That’s huge blow to the offense as he racked up over 1600 rushing yards and 2nd most ground yards for the Tigers this year was Michael Cox who had only 150 yards. Secondly, their starting QB this year Bazelak will not start in this game. He was apparently beaten out in bowl practices by freshman Brady Cook who will start under center. Bazelak threw for over 2500 yards and 16 TD’s this year. Cook threw for 107 yards and 1 TD. Mizzou coaches might be auditioning Cook for a shot at the starting spot next year but that won’t help the offense here. We know Army runs the ball. They rank #2 in YPG rushing (275) and #2 in rush attempts per game. That’s a huge problem for the Tigers as they ended the regular season as one of the worst rush defenses in college football allowing 224 YPG (120th). On top of that, they haven’t faced anything close to an option offense and while they have had time to try and figure it out, their DC Wilks spent the last 14 seasons in the NFL so he hasn’t faced it period. Army is off a disappointing loss to Navy which will help fuel them for this game. We know the Cadets always bring their best in bowl games winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming last year by 3 points vs West Virginia. We like Army to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close. |