David's MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the White Sox (75-69) position atop the AL Central, but we think this is an overreaction.

The Pirates (66-79) 7-2 in their last nine and coming off a dominant 9-3 victory in the series opener yesterday, give RHP Lake Bachar the nod. Bachar (1-3, 3.59 ERA) has been a stable arm for Pittsburgh, with the Pirates going 6-2 in his eight starts.

Chicago counters with RHP Davis (9-6, 4.13 ERA) who has accumulated wins, but has struggled to log innings and deliver dominant starts consistently, carrying a 1.32 WHIP and facing volatile outings in recent months.

This is a 3% play on the PIRATES!

David's MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The Guardians (73-71) come into Baltimore fighting for crucial positioning late in the season and feature a solid matchup on the bump. LHP Joey Cantillo (9-8, 3.81 ERA) has been steady down the stretch, and Baltimore is only 5-8 as home favorites against left-hended starters. 

The Orioles (69-75) turn to LHP Trevor Rogers (9-9, 4.30 ERA), who has conceded 11 runs across his past three starts. Additionally, Rogers has historically struggled when facing Cleveland, giving up 10 runs across his last two starts against the Guardians.

This is a 3% play on the GUARDIANS!

David's *LATE* 4% Sunday Night MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Chicago holding the higher division rank, but we think this is an overreaction. The Twins (68-74) present great value on the road, and RHP Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.37 ERA) has proven he can neutralize Chicago, successfully shutting down the White Sox over five innings of two-hit, one-run ball back in late August. The White Sox (74-68) will open with LHP Bryan Hudson (4-4, 3.16 ERA) for what will be a bullpen game. While Chicago has put together a solid season, relying heavily on their relief corps over nine innings against a divisional opponent gives Minnesota's lineup plenty of opportunities to break through.

This is a 4% play on the TWINS!

David's White Sox  @ Astros MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Houston's home-field reputation at Daikin Park, but we think this is an overreaction. The White Sox (72-64) have been playing fantastic baseball, and they hand the ball to LHP Anthony Kay (9-6, 4.09 ERA) who has been a reliable source of wins all year, with Chicago posting an highly profitable 11-8 record in games where he starts as a moneyline underdog.

Houston (69-68) sends RHP Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA) to the mound, but they've lost his last two starts with Lambert giving up nine runs over 9.1 frames. Chicago's lineup should be able to generate plenty of run support to cash a nice value play on the road behind their solid starter.

This is a 3% play on the WHITE SOX!

David's MLB *CASH COW CLUTCH*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Cleveland's home-field advantage and Tanner Bibee's name recognition, but we think this is an overreaction. Cleveland RHP Tanner Bibee (4-11, 3.85 ERA) has struggled to secure wins all season due to inconsistent command and lack of run support, leaving the Guardians vulnerable as home favorites.

Meanwhile, the Royals (60-75) hand the ball to steady RHP Michael Wacha (7-8, 3.49 ERA), who has been a stabilizing force in Kansas City's rotation, routinely pitching deep into games. Wacha has a 4-2 record with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Guardians. With Kansas City coming off a dominant 13-2 road victory yesterday, their ninth win in 10 games, their lineup carries plenty of momentum into Progressive Field to keep this game tight, if not win it outright, against a division rival.

This is a 3% play on the Royals.

David's Cubs @ Diamondbacks MLB BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The Cubs (76-57) are poised for a strong bounce-back effort after having their historic scoring stretch snapped in a late-inning loss last night. Their bats have been absolute dynamite, setting a franchise record by piling up 30 unanswered runs over a dominant three-game stretch heading into this series. Chicago sends LHP Matthew Boyd to the mound, and Boyd (8-2, 4.15 ERA) has been an absolute cash cow when taking the hill this season, leading Chicago to victory in 7 of his 9 starts as a favorite. 

The Diamondbacks (70-63) hand the ball to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. but although Rodriguez (13-4, 2.61 ERA) possesses impressive surface numbers, Arizona's volatile late-game management and shaky bullpen present a prime opening for Chicago's deep lineup to strike late and capture the rubber match.

This is a 3% play on the CUBS!

David's  Phillies @ Mariners *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The price on the underdog might look tempting, but fading Aaron Nola as a road underdog is a profitable proposition, just like fading the Phillies as a team when they are priced as road underdogs.

The Phillies hand the ball to veteran RHP Aaron Nola (5-9, 5.12 ERA) who has struggled to find consistency, posting an ERA over five and frequently faltering in the road underdog role. Philadelphia continues to put up sub-par results as road underdogs, making this a prime spot to back the host squad. Seattle has played solid baseball on home turf, providing strong backing for Logan Gilbert (8-10, 4.18 ERA).

This is a 3% play on the MARINERS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Mets rookie RHP Zac Thornton's impressive outing against Milwaukee back in July, but we think this is an overreaction given the massive talent and record discrepancy between these two NL clubs.

The Brewers (81-50), travel to Queens riding high as one of the premier teams in baseball, and hand the ball to LHP Kyle Harrison (9-3, 2.99 ERA), who has been stellar this season and is coming off a dominant performance against Seattle where he tossed five shutout innings with eight strikeouts.

The Mets (59-72) counter with RHP Zac Thornton (3-4, 3.04 ERA), and while Thornton did throw six scoreless frames against Milwaukee earlier in the summer, New York has struggled mightily as an underdog this season, winning just 3 of 15 attempts as home underdogs.

This is a 4% play on the BREWERS!

David's 4% Royals @ Blue Jays MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Kansas City's 9-1 heater, but we think this is an overreaction.

The Blue Jays (64-68) host Kansas City aiming to capitalize on a favorable home trend. RHP Seth Lugo (5-7, 4.71 ERA) takes the mound for Kansas City, and we are fading him as a road underdog, where he carries a 3-6 record. That aligns with the broader situational trend of fading the Royals (58-74) on the road, where they have sputtered to a sub-par 17-36 record as road dogs.

Toronto hands the ball to veteran RHP Max Scherzer (1-6, 7.40 ERA). Though Scherzer’s stats look inflated, he has a longstanding track record of success against Kansas City, that combined with Toronto’s lineup and home-park setup give them a clear edge to bounce back and pull out a victory behind their home crowd. 

This is a 4% play on the BLUE JAYS!

David's twins @ Athletics MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Minnesota hands the ball to RHP Zebby Matthews. Matthews (7-8, 5.56 ERA) who is coming off a sharp outing where he allowed just one earned run over 5.2 innings against Atlanta, and the Twins have won his last four starts. 

Oakland (51-80) counters with LHP Jeffrey Springs (3-11, 6.02 ERA), who has found the win column elusive while allowing four or more earned runs in several of his recent starts. Minnesota's lineup has shown explosive potential on the road against struggling southpaws, making this a prime spot for the Twins to dictate the pace from the early innings.

This is a 3% play on the TWINS!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Texas RHP Kumar Rocker's (4-10, 4.46 ERA) poor win-loss record speaks for itself, and we think the market undervalues a White Sox squad (68-62) that has posted a solid 39-26 record home at Rate Field.

Chicago hands the ball to RHP José Urquidy (2-1, 5.06 ERA), who makes his first start of the season after turning in strong relief efforts, including a crisp 6.0 scoreless inning, two-hit performance against the Cubs on August 19. Backed by a high-powered Chicago lineup that ranks among the league leaders in home runs, the White Sox are in a prime position to take control of this series opener at home.

This is a 4% play on the WHITE SOX!

David's Reds @ Diamondbacks MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Arizona's strong overall record and home venue, but we think this is an overreaction. Cincinnati (62-68) comes into Chase Field coming off an 11-run output and with a major edge on the mound behind LHP Andrew Abbott (6-8, 4.07 ERA). The Reds have been very profitable with Abbott taking the rubber as an away underdog (8-5 straight up), where his command keeps Cincinnati in striking distance deep into contests.

Arizona (68-62) hands the ball to rookie LHP Mitch Bratt (1-2, 4.17 ERA), who has faltered when thrust into high-pressure spots. Fading Bratt as a home favorite makes complete sense, as he sits at 0-2 in that role so far this season while struggling to contain opposing lineups.

This is a 3% play on the REDS!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the road favorite in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Tampa Bay’s recent cold streak, but we think this is an overreaction. Sitting in short favorite territory, LHP Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.25 ERA) is the right man to get the Rays (76-52) back on track. Tampa Bay is 5-1 in McClanahan's last six starts, and he carries an elite 1.12 WHIP on the season.

The Orioles (62-67) continue to struggle against left-handed pitching, posting a 16-22 record against LHP starters. With Brandon Young (9-3, 3.52 ERA) taking the mound for Baltimore, the Rays have a clear pitching edge to snap their brief skid.

This is a 4% play on the RAYS!

David's Cardinals @ Phillies MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The Cardinals (66-64) have been dangerous on the road this season with a 34-30 away record. That setup creates great value here, especially considering the Phillies have a limited amount of data on LHP Quinn Mathews (0-1, 3.00 ERA), who has logged just 9 IP in the majors.

The Cardinals should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize against Philadelphia RHP Andrew Painter (2-8, 6.43 ERA). The Phillies are 2-7 in Painter’s last nine starts, and he carries an ugly 1.55 WHIP on the season.

This is a 3% play on the CARDINALS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the under in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Seattle sending their ace to the mound, but we think this is an overreaction. The Brewers (78-48) own the best record in baseball and are coming off a historic, record-tying 22-0 shutout performance over Seattle. 

The Mariners (59-67) hand the ball to reliable RHP Logan Gilbert (9-7, 3.28 ERA), but Seattle's struggles as road underdogs are hard to ignore. The Mariners are just 8-13 as away dogs this season, and Milwaukee RHP Dustin May (6-7, 4.13 ERA) has posted a 2.08 ERA since coming over from St. Louis. 

This is a 4% play on the BREWERS!

David's MLB *CASH COW CLUTCH*

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The Cardinals (65-62) come into this contest playing strong baseball, winning seven of their last ten games, and they own a solid 28-22 record as away underdogs over the season..

Cincinnati hands the ball to RHP Chase Burns (14-2, 2.47 ERA), who has been elite this season, but the Reds (60-66) have split his last four starts, proving they aren't unbeatable even with their star on the bump. St. Louis sends LHP Matthew Liberatore (5-10, 5.07 ERA) to the hill. The Cardinals' surging offense and strong situational play as a road dog give them more than enough value to pull off the upset.

This is a 3% play on the CARDINALS!

David's Marlins @ Phillies MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Philadelphia's home-field advantage and five-game winning streak, but we think this is an overreaction. Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara (13-7, 3.43 ERA) has been on fire, allowing just one run over his last four starts, including a dominant 7-inning shutout victory against Philadelphia in late July as part of that stretch.

The Phillies (69-58) hand the ball to RHP Aaron Nola (4-9, 5.33 ERA), who has struggled throughout the campaign. Pitching as a home favorite hasn't suited Nola this year, with his team winning just 40% of his 10 starts as a home favorite.

This is a 3% play on the MARLINS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Cardinals (64-62) continue to generate strong value when facing left-handed pitching, posting a solid 21-16 record in those situations. That success bodes well as they prepare to face Cincinnati LHP Andrew Abbott (6-7, 4.13 ERA), who has been a reliable fade candidate when priced as a home underdog, where bettors backing him have taken a hit with a 1-7 record!

That trend extends to the home squad as a whole, with the Reds (60-65) have struggled in this spot all year, posting a 12-18 record with a negative ROI as home underdogs.

With St. Louis handing the ball to RHP Kyle Leahy (9-4, 3.38 ERA), who has given up two runs or fewer in nine straight starts, expect the road favorites to take care of business.

This is a 4% play on the CARDINALS!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR RAGER WAGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Padres (61-62) have shown value in games like this, and RHP Walker Buehler (7-5, 4.88 ERA) has been remarkably trustworthy when getting the nod on the road as an underdog, leading San Diego to an impressive 7-2 record in that specific role.

New York hands the ball to RHP Nolan McLean (8-8, 3.42 ERA). While the Mets (66-57) enter as the home favorite, McLean has routinely struggled to deliver for his backers in this exact scenario, holding a frustrating 4-7 record when starting as a home favorite. San Diego's reliable road underdog profile combined with these pitching trends makes this a prime spot for the visitors.

This is a 4% play on the PADRES!

David's MLB *CASH COW CLUTCH*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Cubs holding a superior overall record, but we think this is an overreaction. The Cardinals (62-61) present strong situational value here, as they have built a solid 27-22 record as underdogs on the road. 

Chicago hands the ball to RHP Edward Cabrera (5-4, 5.10 ERA). While the Cubs (72-52) have put together a solid campaign, Cabrera has proven to be a risky option when favored. Chicago has gone just 3-4 in games where Cabrera starts as a home favorite, making this an ideal spot to fade the host team. 

This is a 3% play on the CARDINALS!

David's 4% Phillies @ Twins *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Phillies winning the first two games of this series by a combined 16-2 margin, but we think this is an overreaction. Minnesota (60-64) boasts a 32-30 record at Target Field and is now looking to avoid getting swept. 

Twins RHP Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.25 ERA) has allowed just two runs on four hits over 12 innings since coming over from Baltimore. The Phillies (66-58) send RHP Andrew Painter (2-8, 6.27 ERA) to the bump. They've lost 11 of the rookie's 14 starts, and his season-long struggles give Minnesota's lineup a prime opportunity to break out and avoid the series sweep.

This is a 4% play on the TWINS!

David's Red Sox @ Pirates *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the home underdog in this matchup. The Pirates (60-64) have played solid baseball at PNC Park and enter this game with positive momentum, having won back-to-back contests, including Friday's series-opening victory over Boston. 

Pittsburgh are 18-11 in interleague affairs, and RHP Jared Jones (2-4, 5.03 ERA) offers strong bounce-back potential at home, while the Red Sox (65-57) send RHP Sonny Gray (14-3, 2.79 ERA) to the mound. Gray’s baseline numbers look impressive, but the Pirates’ lineup has been hot lately, scoring 17 runs over their last two games, and has the depth to break through at home to secure the win.

This is a 3% play on the PIRATES!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Miami's current four-game road losing streak and starter Ryan Gusto's winless record, but we think this is an overreaction. The Marlins (62-61) remain firmly in the postseason mix and hit the ball effectively, offering solid value to bounce back against a struggling Cincinnati squad.

Miami hands the ball to RHP Ryan Gusto (0-3, 4.78 ERA), who has provided far more competitive outings than his win-loss record indicates, with Miami winning four of his seven starts as a moneyline underdog. The Reds (59-62) counter with RHP Brady Singer (5-11, 4.66 ERA) who has surrendered three runs or more in four consecutive starts, never making it through the sixth inning. The Marlins torched Singer with six runs on 10 hits over 2.2 innings of a 7-4 win back in early April. 

This is a 4% play on the MARLINS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Mariners roll into the Bronx on a six-game losing streak, through which they've scored a total of just 10 runs. Yankees LHÅ Max Fried (4-2, 2.88 ERA) has been an absolute monster lately and he held the Mariners scoreless over seven innings of a 5-0 win back in March. 

This is a 4% play on the YANKEES!

David's 4% Red Sox @ Blue Jays MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Red Sox (64-54) enter this divisional matchup looking to bounce back from four losses, and their bats present a tough matchup for Toronto's pitching staff. Boston hands the ball to LHP Ranger Suárez (8-4, 3.22 ERA), who has been a bedrock of stability at the top of their rotation and he has pitched 19 straight shutout innings in three consecutive wins over Toronto!

Toronto has struggled to maintain momentum and string together quality performances all season long. 

This is a 4% play on the Red Sox!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Mets' recent hot streak, but we think this is an overreaction. The Mets (53-67) have won six of their last seven games overall, but they have struggled significantly when facing lefties, posting a sub-par 12-20 record against LHP starters this season. That weakness plays right into the hands of Atlanta LHP Martín  Perez (7-6, 3.14 ERA), who has been outstanding since the All-Star break, pitching to a microscopic 1.42 ERA and holding opponents scoreless in three of his last four starts. On top of his recent form, Pérez has dominated New York throughout his career, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.55 ERA across 13 appearances (nine starts).

The Braves (63-53) boast an explosive lineup capable of making quick work Mets RHP Nolan McLean (8-7, 3.51 ERA. Atlanta's lineup hits right-handed pitching exceptionally well, and the Braves are 24-12 as home favories against right-handed starters. 

This is a 4% play on the BRAVES!

David's MLB Moneyline *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Rays (70-46) come into this series as one of the elite teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this an ideal spot to fade Oakland's starter.

The Athletics (47-71) hand the ball to LHP Jacob Lopez (5-4, 5.64 ERA), and while Lopez has kept earned runs down over his past few outings, overall team results tell a different story. The A's are just 1-6 in Lopez's last seven starts and hold a sub-par 1-6 record in his home starts this season. 

Tampa Bay counters with RHP Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.37 ERA). While Peralta's overall numbers look elevated, he offers significant swing-and-miss potential against an Oakland lineup that ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

This is a 3% play on the RAYS!

David's 4% Rangers @ Angels MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Rangers (59-59) enter this division clash well-positioned to cash as road favorites, given the Angels (45-73) having one of the worst statistical profiles in baseball against left-handed pitching this season.

Texas hands the ball to LHP MacKenzie Gore (6-9, 4.55 ERA), who returns to the rotation after being activated off the paternity list on Saturday. Gore has been dialed in lately, with the Rangers winning four of his last five starts, including a crisp six-inning shutout performance in his last outing.

Los Angeles counters with LHP Reid Detmers (3-8, 4.12 ERA), who is still in search of his first win at Angel Stadium this season (0-5, 4.06 ERA at home), and the Angels have lost his six starts overall. Detmers is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Texas this year and holds a career 4.44 ERA across 18 career appearances (12 starts) against the Rangers.

This is a 4% play on the RANGERS!

MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Pirates (57-58) are at 10-23 one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed starters, and Mets LHP Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.33 ERA) has been one of the Mets' (48-66) most effective starters over the past month.

Manaea has thrown six or more innings and allowed two runs or fewer in three consecutive starts and in four of his past five outings. Furthermore, Manaea has a 2.81 ERA in three starts and six career appearances overall against Pittsburgh.

This is a 3% play on the METS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Guardians handed the White Sox an 8-2 defeat on Friday, handing Chicago its fourth consecutive loss while snapping a three-game skid of their own. Cleveland holds a distinct edge once again for Game 2 of the series, but oddsmakers are underpricing the road favorites.

Cleveland sends out RHP Gavin Williams (11-6, 3.56 ERA), who has been a complete strikeout king lately, racking up 10 or more strikeouts in five straight starts, including a 10-strikeout, one-hit gem over 5.2 scoreless innings in his last outing. He will be opposed by Chicago LHP Anthony Kay (8-5, 4.01 ERA) who has put together a respectable campaign, but the White Sox bats have completely stalled during their four-game losing streak. 

The Guardians are 5-2 in their last seven matchups against AL Central opponents, and we think they'll impove on those numbers today. 

This is a 4% play on the GUARDIANS!

David's Mets @ Pirates MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Mets continue to play solid baseball away from home, coming off a three-game sweep in Cleveland. That upward trajectory aligns well with Mets LHP Zach Thornton (2-2, 2.88 ERA) taking the mound as Thornton has shown sharp command and composure, consistently holding opposing lineups in check.

The Pirates counter with RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (6-3, 3.15 ERA). While Mlodzinski has put together a respectable stat line, Pittsburgh's bullpen and run support have been erratic, especially when facing quality left-handed starting pitching; 10-22 record, 3-7 as home favorites. 

This is a 3% play on the METS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Braves are with their 38-20 home record, one of the strongest home teams in baseball. Atlanta LHP Martin Perez (7-6, 3.24 ERA) has much like the whole team been better at home, and Miami has struggled with left-handed pitching all season. 

This is a 4% play on the BRAVES!

David's Blue Jays @ Cubs MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Cubs have been playing excellent baseball at home, sporting a strong 34-24 record at Wrigley Field this season. That home-field advantage sets up perfectly with David Peterson (6-7, 5.52 ERA) who has allowed just one run over 13 innings over his last two home starts, and is 3-1 with a 4.36 ERA in six starts since he was acquired from the Mets on June 25.  

This is a 3% play on the CUBS!

David's 4% MLB *BIG BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Pittsburgh has struggled massively against southpaws all season, posting a poor 10-21 record when facing left-handed starting pitchers, and Milwaukee LHP Kyle Harrison (8-2, 3.01 ERA) fanned 12 Pirates over six innings in a 5-0 win back in April. Harrison is 5-1 with a 1.53 ERA in his home starts. 

Pirates RHP Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.90 ERA) brings name recognition, and the market continues to price him like an untouchable ace, but the market value doesn't reflect his 9-14 team record and nearly 4.00 ERA, offering clear value in backing the opposition.

This is a 4% play on the BREWERS!

David's 4% MLB *BE$T BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Mets are only 22-32 on the road and Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo (8-6, 3.88 ERA) struck out eight over four scoreless innings in his last start on July 29 at the Reds. Cantillo has been dominant at home, and the Mets are 10-20 against left-handed starters, 1-7 as underdogs. 

This is a 3% play on the GUARDIANS!

David's 4% Rangers @ Astros MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Houston comes in with momentum and a clear edge on the mound with Peter Lambert (8-5, 3.06 ERA) taking the ball. Lambert has been steady all season, and he gets the nod against a Texas lineup that has struggled to find consistency on the road. Texas sends RHP Kumar Rocker (4-8, 4.03 ERA) to the bump, who has battled command issues and pitch-efficiency trouble.

With Texas currently stuck in a four-game road losing skid and Houston winners of 10 of its last 11, the setup strongly favors the Astros to control this division rivalry game from start to finish. 

This is a 4% play on the ASTROS!

David's EARLY MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Rays have been held to just one run in both of the first two games of this series, but still managed to bounce back yesterday with a 1-0 shutout victory. This rubber match could easily turn into another low-scoring affair with RHP Griffin Jax (6-8, 3.74 ERA) taking the mound. Jax is coming off a dominant 10-strikeout performance and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. White Sox RHP Anthony Kay (7-5, 4.34 ERA) carries a 1.36 WHIP and has struggled with control, which pairs poorly against a Rays team that draws walks at a high rate in home games.

This is a 3% play on the RAYS!

David's Cardinals @ Blue Jays MLB *BANKROLL BUILDER*

We really like the road team in this matchup as St. Louis looks to avoid the series sweep. While the Cardinals' bats have been quiet over the last week, they get an ideal bounce-back spot today against Toronto RHP Max Scherzer (1-4, 9.49 ERA), who has struggled mightily to find his rhythm since returning from the IL, leaving him vulnerable against a St. Louis lineup desperate to break out. LHP Matthew Liberatore (5-8, 5.26 ERA) takes the mound for the visitors, and if he can give them a solid five innings, St. Louis is in a prime position to capitalize on Toronto's shaky pitching depth. Toronto’s bullpen has logged heavy usage over the last two games and holds a 4.35 ERA over their last 10 games, giving St. Louis a late-game scoring edge.

This is a 3% play on the CARDINALS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The moneylline price appears to be heavily influenced by Arizona entering on a three-game winning streak, but expecting them to extend that run on the road against elite starting pitching is a massive overreaction. While the public is quick to back a team riding short-term momentum, fading Arizona's streak in this spot provides an excellent situational angle to back the hosts at a discount compared to what we think the line should be. 

Arizona LHP Parker Messick (6-5, 2.59 ERA) has been absolute lights out for Cleveland's rotation, and has maintained a stingy 2.59 ERA that gives his squad a sharp foundational edge every time he takes the mound. Arizona counters with Kohl Drake (0-0, 5.00 ERA) who has already served up two home runs and posted a1.44 WHIP over just 9.0 innings of big leagues experience. 

This is a 3% play on the GUARDIANS!

David's EARLY Marlins @ Mets MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The moneyline price appears to be heavily influenced by the Mets playing on their home dirt and sending rookie southpaw Zach Thornton (2-1, 2.43 ERA) to the mound, but expecting the struggling Mets to comfortably handle a Miami squad on a 4-1 run is a massive overreaction. 

While Thornton’s ERA looks impressive through a limited sample of 29.2 IP, he maintains a short leash from the coaching staff, which will force an early reliance on a heavily taxed, shorthanded Mets relief corps that currently has multiple high-leverage arms on the injured list. Miami RHP Tyler Phillips (2-5, 3.52 ERA) has proven far more capable than his baseline win-loss record implies

This is a 3% play on the MARLINS!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER* 

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The White Sox are, somehow, 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last five starts (and 8-2 in his last 10!), despite Fedde posting a 5.06 over that five-game stretch. With Nick Martinez (10-2, 2.45 ERA) on the mound for Tampa Bay, we don't see Fedde getting enough run support to make up for his shortcomings this time around. 

This is a 4% play on the RAYS!

David's EARLY BIRD MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Rays are 8-1 as home favorites with LHP Shane McClanahan (9.6, 3.09 ERA) as the starter, and reliever Cole Winn (5-3, 6.11 ERA) will serve as the opener in a bullpen game for Texas. Big advantage for the Rays. 

This is a 3% play on the Rays!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The slumping Blue Jays managed to win the series opener 3-2, but they're on an 0-4 run coming off a win while the Nats are on a 4-0 run off a loss. Cade Cavalli (7-4, 3.58 ERA) is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 45 strikeouts against six walks over his past six starts. Toronto RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.70 ERA) has tightened up his game after a loose start, but this is a Nats spot. 

This is a 4% play on the NATIONALS!

David's MLB *MONET MOVER*

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The Twins are on a 6-2 run as home favorites and Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.69 ERA) has been dealing, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in his last five starts. With Bradley 2-1 with an 0.73 ERA in four career starts against the Royals, we have no reason to believe he won't keep dealing. 

This is a 3% play on the TWINS!

David's MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. Detroit RHP Troy Melton (5-1, 1.95 ERA) has had an incredible season, and has surrendered two runs or fewer in nine of his 10 starts this season. We think regression is on the horizon though, and feel that the 52-55 Orioles are undervalued against the 50-57 Tigers. Value is value, even if it might look ugly. 

This is a 3% play on the ORIOLES!

David's Braves @ Mets MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the road favorite in this matchup. With Atlanta at 62-43 and the Mets at 44-62, these two teams have nearly inverse records, and we think the better team is way undervalued in this Monday night matchup. Mets LHP Zac Thornton (1-1, 1.93 ERA) has impressed over his first four starts in the big leagues, but this Atlanta lineup will be a major test for the rookie. The Braves counter with LHP Martin Perez (6-6, 3.38 ERA), an experienced workhorse coming off a solid outing after 16 days of rest.

Atlanta is 26-16 against left-handed starters while the Mets are just 8-20 in the same split, which makes the Braves one of the most profitable teams in this specific situation. Thornton has been cruising, but he hasn't faced a lineup of this caliber yet.

This is a 3% play on the BRAVES!

David's MLB *BANKROLL BUILDER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. This line appears to be highly influenced by Max Scherzer's career numbers rather than his currenty ability. Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) has made multiple trips to the injured list this season, making it impossible for the veteran to find his rhythm. 

This is a 3% play on the NATIONALS!

David's 5% AL West *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We really like the road team in this matchup. Seattle snapped a four-game skid with a 6-4 win over the Rangers yesterday, and we think they can build on that momentum with George Kirby (8-8, 3.57 ERA) on the mound. Kirby is a dominant 9-1 with a microscopic 1.33 ERA in 12 career starts against the Rangers, and Texas' Kumar Rocker (3-8, 4.13 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent, often following stellar outings with a poor display, and he is a brutal 1-6 with three no-decisions in his last 10 starts at Globe Life Field. Rangers sit at 53-52, Mariners at 52-54, meaning Seattle is 1.5 games back and desperate for a series split. 

This is a 5% play on the MARINERS!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Seattle enters this contest in the middle of a frustrating slide, coming in as losers of four straight games. Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.38 ERA) has shown notable cracks in his armor over his recent outings, and Gilbert has struggled significantly when facing this Texas team, with Seattle posting an 0-2 record in his two starts against the Rangers this season. Rangers ace RHP Jacob deGrom (7-6, 3.76 ERA) gives his club a distinct foundational edge in this matchup. Texas boasts a perfect 2-0 team record across deGrom's two starts versus the Mariners this campaign.

This is a 4% play on the RANGERS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The Red Sox have been unreliable laying juice on home dirt all season, coming into this game at 20-21 as home favorites. With Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.15 ERA) as a home favorite, the Red Sox have a 3-3 record, which of course has been a profitable fade. The moneyline appears to be highly influenced by the fact that  the Blue Jays have lost seven straight games Kevin Gausman has started, but we think this is an overreaction. 

This is a 3% play on the BLUE JAYS!

David's LATE MLB *FINISHER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. Cincy RHP Hunter Green was slapped around by Baltimore in his season debut on July 4, but has followed up with two solid outings (13 IP, 3 ER, 19K). The Cardinals are putting their faith in Andre Pallante to improve on a rough 1-7 stretch, but that's a big ask considering they've lost three of his last four starts. 

This is a 3% play on the REDS!

David's Blue Jays @ Red Sox MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The moneyline appears to be heavily influenced by recent team results—with Toronto stumbling to a 2-8 mark over their last 10 games while Boston enters red-hot at 9-1—but we think expecting that wide divergence to continue tonight is a massive market overreaction.

Blue Jays RHP Dylan Cease (6-5, 2.67 ERA) has allowed a microscopic total of just three earned runs over his last three starts combined and already holds a proven blueprint against this lineup, having tossed five scoreless innings while fanning seven Red Sox batters back in June. Red Sox veteran RHP Sonny Gray's (9-4, 3.12 ERA) surface numbers look sharp, but his command showed subtle cracks last time out when he allowed five hits and issued four walks across six innings, and Gray yielded three earned runs to Toronto in that June series.

This is a 3% play on the BLUE JAYS!

David's Astros @ White Sox MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Astros have proven to be resilient when priced in this exact role, carrying a sharp 31-29 record as underdogs this season. 

Houston hands the ball to right-hander RHP Spencer Arrighetti (7-5, 4.34 ERA). After navigating a rough stretch of starts earlier in the campaign, Arrighetti has shown clear signs of steady improvement, finding his rhythm and command, having allowed just one run in two of his three outings this month. 

The White Sox counter with Drew Martin (9-5, 3.31 ERA). While Martin’s season-long surface metrics look respectable on paper, his recent underlying command paints a far more volatile picture. Martin has struggled with baseline traffic lately, stumbling to a bloated 1.89 WHIP over his past three starts. That lack of control has directly impacted team results, as Chicago has dropped four of his last five starts. 

This is a 3% play on the ASTROS!

David's 4% Yankees @ Phillies MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the ome team in this matchup. The Yankees have split their last six games as their bats have gone quiet. The Phillies are perfect 10-0 in LHP Jesus Luzardo's (9-4, 3.43 ERA) last 10 starts while the Yankees are 1-4 in Will Warren's (7-4, 4.00) last five starts. 

This is a 4% play on the PHILLIES!

David's 5% MAX: NL *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the road team in this matchup. Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) has allowed only five earned runs across his last four starts, with Arizona winning all four games. He also held St. Louis to two runs over 5.1 innings in a 5-3 victory just five days ago. The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five overall, including both recent meetings with the Cardinals. St. Louis has dropped four of five, giving Arizona solid value as a small road underdog. 

This is a 5% play on the DIAMONDBACKS!

David's Athletics @ Diamondbacks 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The series is tied after an extra-inning win for Arizona last night, which we capitalized on. For the rubber-game though, we switch sides as the A's have had decent success agaisnt Arizona RHP Merrill Kelly in the past, and Kelly has posted a bloated 7.44 ERA home at Chase Field this season. The A's counter with rookie LHP Gage Jump (3-5, 3.78 ERA) who is unknown for Arizona, and has allowed only two runs in 24.0 innings (0.75 ERA) on the road. 

This is a 4% play on the ATHLETICS!

MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Mets have, arguably, the better starting pitching here with Christian Scott coming in at 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA, and Milwaukee was shut out yesterday, which usually creates a bounce-back spot but not necessarily an automatic one. The Brewers have also struggled in this exact situation, going 0-3 off a shutout loss this season, and Scott’s underlying profile shows enough quality to give the underdog the edge. 

This is a 3% play on the METS!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Oakland picked up a rare win vs a left-handed starter yesterday in a 5–2 victory, but asking this offense to string together back-to-back strong performances against southpaws feels like a big ask. LHP Kohl Drake gets the ball for his MLB debut, and he’s coming in off two strong outings for Triple-A Reno, allowing just two earned runs over his last 8 2/3 innings, including five shutout innings on July 3. The lack of a scouting book on Drake works in his favor here, especially against an A’s lineup that has generally struggled vs lefties this season.

Oakland sends Jack Perkins (2-5, 6.87 ERA) to the mound, and he’s been in rough form, posting a 7.54 ERA over his last five starts with the team losing each of his last four outings. Arizona’s bats are in a good spot to bounce back at home after dropping yesterday’s game. 

This is a 4% play on the DIAMONDBACKS!

David's Rays @ Blue Jays MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the road team in this matchup. Toronto RHP Dylan Cease (6–4, 2.56 ERA) has been one of the hottest arms in baseball in July, but Rays RHP Nick Martinez (8–2, 2.65 ERA) has been almost equally sharp, posting 15.1 IP with 4 ER over his last three starts. Tampa Bay may be winless in five straight overall, but they’ve cashed in each of Martinez’s last four starts, and this is exactly the type of spot where we’re willing to fade Cease at a peak price and back the more complete club getting plus money on the road.

This is a 3% play on the RAYS!

David's Pirates @ Yankees MLB *BANKROLL BOOSTER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Pirates are just 9–17 against left-handed starters, making them one of the better fades in baseball in this split, and now they draw a Yankees lineup that still has enough pop even with a couple of key bats out. Pittsburgh has to deal with Yankees lefty Ryan Weathers, who owns a 2.77 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Pirates, while Braxton Ashcraft (9–3, 3.49 ERA) has been tagged for five runs in two of his last three outings, hinting at some regression after his hot start.

This is a 3% play on the YANKEES!

David's 5% AL EAST *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be heavily influenced by the Red Sox scoring 22 runs while winning the first three games of the series, but we think this is an overreaction. Rays RHP Shane McClanahan (8-5, 2.83 ERA) is an elite arm, and he owns a career record of 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA and in seven appearances against the Red Sox.

This is a 5% play on the RAYS!

David's 4% Twins @ Cubs MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. Both teams headed into the All-Star break with positive momentum, but the betting line appears to be highly influenced by the Minnesota Twins losing RHP Bailey Ober's last two starts and the Chicago Cubs winning Colin Rea's last two outings. We think this is a market overreaction, supported by a 1.19 WHIP for Ober vs  a 1.45 WHIP for Rea. 

This is a 4% play on the TWINS!

David's Astros @ Rangers Lone Star State Rivalry Rubber Match

We really like the home team in this matchup. The odds appears to be heavily influenced by the Rangers dropping yesterday's contest 9-3, but expecting their offensive production to remain stagnant in Arlington today is a massive market overreaction.

The Astros hand the ball to RHP Cristian Javier (0-1, 10.22 ERA), who has endured a highly volatile and rough campaign, sitting on a bloated ERA and an ugly 2.27 WHIP across his limited action this season. Prior to yesterday's setback, the Rangers' bats had absolute flames coming off them, pouring on seven runs in back-to-back games. 

This is a 3% play on the RANGERS!

David's Astros @ Rangers 4% *BEST BET BANGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The Astros hand the ball to RHP Peter Lambert (7-5, 3.26 ERA), who has stifled opposing lineups to the tune of a brilliant 2.76 ERA over his last five starts, showcasing elite command and composure. More importantly, his team boasts a 3-1 record in his last four appearances on the mound.

The Rangers counter with RHP Kumar Rocker (2-7, 3.95 ERA), who continues to carry significant volatility. Rocker has routinely struggled with baseline traffic over his last five starts, watching his metrics slide to a bloated 5.01 ERA over that stretch. 

Should the starters exit early, Houston's relief corps features rested high-leverage arms fully equipped to minimize late-inning damage and secure a critical road victory.

This is a 4% play on the ASTROS!

David's Brewers @ Pirates MLB G1 *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

This was initially a 4% play for Friday's game. We reduce to 3% for the first game of a double-header Saturday. 

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Brewers have a superior overall record and come in on a hot streak with five wins in six games, but Pittsburgh RHP Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.24 ERA) has a stellar 12-6 team record in his 18 starts this year. Pittsburgh ranks second in the majors with a .262 team batting average and third in runs scored (5.2 per game),

This is a 3% play on the PIRATES!

David's MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the underdog  in this matchup. The Diamondbacks send RHP Merrill Kelly (6-8, 5.71 ERA) to the hill. While Kelly has admittedly endured a rough and uncharacteristic season up to this point, his underlying pedigree and veteran capability to settle down and he is coming off a solid bounce-back performance against a dangerous Milwaukee lineup. Padres RHP Griffin Canning (1-6, 6.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) continues to carry significant volatility on the mound. Canning has routinely struggled with consistency and baseline traffic all season, making him highly vulnerable against a disciplined Arizona batting order. The value is clearly on the underdog in this game. 

This is a 3% play on the DIAMONDBACKS!

David's 4% MLB *BEST BET BANGER**

We really like the home team in this matchup. The A's look like they can't even buy a win lately while the Tigers have won seven of their last eight. Detroit LHP Framber Valdez (4-6, 4.29 ERA) has dominated the Athletics across his career, posting an 8-4 record with a 2.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 17 total appearances (15 starts).

This is a 4% play on the TIGERS!

AFTER DARK SPECIAL: David's Angels @ Rangers *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the underdog value on the visitors in this American League West matchup. The odds appears to be heavily influenced by the Angels' current seven-game skid, but expecting them to continue to slide without a fight is a massive market overreaction. While the public is eager to fade a slumping team, the individual metrics on the mound tell a completely different story, giving the road team an excellent situational bounce-back opportunity.

The Angels hand the ball to rookie RHP Walbert Urena (5-7, 3.03 ERA), who has arguably been the hotter starting pitcher in this matchup. Since navigating a modest April, Urena has routinely suppressed opposing lineups and keeping his team highly competitive, shown by the Angels' 9-3 runline record as underdogs with Urena on the bump.

Rangers LHP MacKenzie Gore (5-7, 4.31 ERA) gave up five runs last time out, and he'll face a hungry Angels squad that matches up well against erratic southpaws. 

This is a 3% play on the ANGELS!

David's 4% MLB Moneyline *MAJOR RAGER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The odds appears to be heavily influenced by the Royals turning to a bullpen game, but we think this is a massive overreaction. The Royals enter this contest with absolute flames coming off their bats, fresh off back-to-back performances where they poured on 15 or more runs, including a wild 16-12 victory in yesterday's series opener. When a lineup is this locked in, backing them at a plus-money price provides excellent situational value.

Mets' RHP Christian Scott (2-1, 3.49 ERA) boasts respectable numbers, but Scott has struggled with the long ball lately, serving up six home runs across his last three starts. Facing a red-hot Kansas City order that is seeing the ball perfectly right now is the absolute worst recipe for a pitcher prone to the gopher ball. 

Both of these squads sit at identical 38-54 records on the season, meaning the premium being placed on New York makes little sense, especially considering the Mets' home-field advantage has been practically non-existent with a sluggish 19-25 record at Citi Field.

This is a 4% play on the ROYALS!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be heavily influenced by Houston RHP Tatsuya Imai's (5-4, 6.14 ERA) last outing when he was torched by the Twins, but he had been exceptionally solid in the weeks leading up to that single debacle, including back-to-back double-digit strikeout gems.

While the Nationals have been absolute money for their backers this season, that success has translated significantly better when playing the underdog role on the road rather than carrying the weight of expectation on their home dirt.

This is a 4% play on the ASTROS!

David's 4% MLB Moneyline *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Tampa Bay has been absolutely stellar on their home dirt all season, boasting a dominant 31-12 home record. The Bronx Bombers typically feature a power-heavy offense, but they enter tonight shorthanded with superstar bat Aaron Judge on the injured list with a rib injury, alongside slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and the are 3-12 in the past 15 games. 

Rays' RHP Griffin Jax (4-5, 3.45 ERA) has posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA over his past five starts, and the Rays are 4-1 in his home starts closing as a favorite for the season. 

This is a 4% play on the RAYS!

David's *EARLY* MLB *BANKROLL BUILDER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The Twins are coming off an emphatic 11-4 win, and we think they'll stay close or win the series finale as well. The Yankees are 1-4 in LHP Ryan Weathers's (3-6, 4.08 ERA) last five starts, and the Twins are 6-6 with a positive ROI as underdogs on the road against left-handed starters. 

This is a 3% play on the TWINS!

David's MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. Gavin Williams (9-4, 3.81 ERA) has been efficient against this White Sox lineup, holding current Chicago hitters to a .226 batting average and a modest .290 Slugging Percentage.

The White Sox are turning to left-hander Anthony Kay (6-3, 4.50 ERA). While Kay has a winning record, his underlying metrics paint a more volatile picture, carrying a bloated 1.43 WHIP.

Furthermore, the situational splits heavily favor the hosts here; the Guardians are a strong 23-20 at Progressive Field, whereas Chicago has routinely struggled away from home, posting a sluggish 17-27 road record.

This is a 3% play on the Guardians!

David's Twins @ Astros *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The Astros have won Tatsuya Imai's last four starts, and he has recorded 21 Ks over 12 innings across the last two.

This is a 3% play on the ASTROS!

David's 4% Padres @ Cubs *MAJOR RAGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Walker Buehler's early season struggles, but he has posted a 1.71 ERA over his last five starts, with four straight Padres wins. 

This is a 4% play on the PADRES!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the New York Yankees playing at home in the Bronx, but we think treating the hosts as the premium choice today is a market overreaction. New York enters this contest completely reeling, having dropped four straight games while managing through an entirely depleted depth chart with stars like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton stuck on the injured list. The Tigers turn to RHP Casey Mize (2-5, 2.95 ERA). Mize has been pitching at an elite technical level all summer, limiting hard contact and suppressing baserunners to maintain a brilliant sub-3.00 ERA

This is a 3% play on the TIGERS!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR RAGER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the fact that Shane Bieber will be on the bump for the second time this season for Toronto, but he was tagged with four runs in his season debut, and a Rangers team scoring 18 runs over a three-game winning streak won't be easy outs. Market makers continue to respect Bieber’s name-brand recognition, but catching a blazing-hot Texas squad at a clear plus-money price tag creates an absolute premium situational angle.

This is a 4% play on the RANGERS!

David's 4% Phillies @ Mets *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the New York Mets playing at home and introducing Andy Green as their new interim manager, but we think this is a big market overreaction. Philadelphia enters this contest with excellent situational momentum following a tight 2-1 victory over the Mets yesterday, and while the Mets most likely will have an edge on the mound in this one, the Phillies are worth a look. 

This is a 4% play on the PHILLIES!

David's MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the White Sox exploding for an uncharacteristic 22-1 rout yesterday, but we think treating the South Siders as clear favorites today is a massive market overreaction. The Royals send veteran right-hander Michael Wacha (5-5, 3.48 ERA) to the mound. Wacha has been a model of consistency all summer, eating up critical innings with a sharp 1.16 WHIP. Chicago counters with Davis Martin (9-3, 3.18 ERA), who has enjoyed great run support but wraps up his worst month of the season while facing a highly motivated Kansas City order. Expect a complete situational reversal as the Royals exact revenge.

This is a 3% play on the ROYALS!

David's MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. Both starting pitchers carry elevated ERAs into the matchup, but while Patrick Corbin has had major issues with his control, Nathan Enovaldi has actucally been racking up Ks. We think positive regression is coming for Eovaldi. 

This is a 3% play on the RANGERS!

David's 4% Astros @ Tigers MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. Getting the Astros at this number represents immense value, as the market is vastly overestimating Detroit's home-field advantage while discounting Houston's structural superiority.

The Astros hand the ball to right-hander Spencer Arrighetti (7-3, 3.13), a steady arm who has been highly profitable to back this season. Houston boasts an excellent 9-2 record in Arrighetti's starts when priced in a competitive window (+130 or under), highlighting his ability to get the job done. Detroit counters with RHP Keider Montero (3-5, 3.68), who continues to grind through a volatile summer stretch. Coming off a hard-fought 2-1 victory over these same Tigers yesterday where the bullpen completely locked things down, the Astros hold premium situational momentum to secure another road win.

This is a 4% play on the ASTROS!

David's 5% MAX: MLB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The line appears to be heavily influenced by Seattle's division-leading status, but we think backing against the Mariners on the road with an erratic starter is a great opportunity. The Mariners send right-hander Bryan Woo (6-5, 3.94 ERA) to the hill. Woo has had his ups and downs lately, mixed with two scoreless outings in his last five starts, but allowing four or more runs in each of the other three. Crucially, Woo has struggled severely away from home, carrying a bloated 5.93 ERA on the road that stands in stark contrast to his elite 2.00 mark back in Seattle. Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft (6-3, 3.18), who has been a steady arm all season and is fresh off a strong seven-strikeout performance in a 12-4 win over Oakland.

This is a 5% play on the PIRATES!

David's MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Tampa Bay Rays playing on their home turf at Tropicana Field, but we think going against the Rays at a plus-money price is a +EV spot. The Rays hand the ball to right-hander Griffin Jax (2-5, 3.67), who has looked highly vulnerable recently, with Tampa Bay dropping four of his last five starts and goung through a a sluggish 3-7 stretch over the team's last 10 games. Kansas City counters with left-hander Noah Cameron (4-4, 4.20), who has shown a steady arm and carries noticeably sharper comfort and execution when pitching on the road. Coming off an explosive 12-5 victory yesterday where the bats completely woke up, the Royals hold excellent situational momentum to secure another road win.

This is a 3% play on the ROYALS!

David's Orioles @ Angels MLB *MONEY MAGNET*

We really like Baltimore in this matchup. The Orioles come in with momentum after taking two of three against the Dodgers in L.A., and RHP Kyle Bradish (4-7, 4.00) is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one career start against the Angels. Angels LHP Sam Aldegheri (2-2, 4.50) was rocked for seven runs last time out. 

This is a 3% play on the ORIOLES!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR RAGER*

We really like Houston in this matchup. Astros RHP Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.10) is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts against Toronto. Brown returned from the injured list to make his third start of the season on June 16, when he held the Tigers to one run, three hits while striking out seven over 5 2/3 innings. 

This is a 4% play on the ASTROS!

David's Guardians @ Astros 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The Guardians send Slade Cecconi (3-5, 4.60) to the hill, a right-hander who has shown solid flashes of dominance and can stifle an order when he is locked in. Houston counters with Kai-Wei Teng (3-6, 4.31), who continues to struggle with consistency and carries a losing record. Coming off a 8-1 victory where the bats woke up, the Guardians hold excellent situational momentum to secure another road win.

This is a 4% play on the GUARDIANS!

Early MLB Alert: David's *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Boston's home-field advantage and the public's desire to back their frontline ace, but we think this is a massive market overreaction. The Blue Jays send Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.78) to the hill, a talented young right-hander who has already proven this season that he can flash dominant, elite-level stuff against heavy-hitting lineups, and he's boasting a 1.71 ERA on the road! While Boston counters with veteran Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03), the Red Sox have really struggled to find consistency as home favorites during their recent slide. 

This is a 3% play on the BLUE JAYS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Tigers send LHP Framber Valdez (3-5, 4.40) to the mound, a battle-tested veteran who is making a highly anticipated, emotionally charged return to Houston. The Astros counter with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.84), a right-hander who will make his first major league appearance since early April after recovering from a serious shoulder injury. Detroit has been swinging hot bats, and backing a motivated underdog with a true pitching identity edge makes this a prime spot.

This is a 3% play on the TIGERS!

David's 5% MAX: IL *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The Nationals send LHP Andrew Alvarez to the mound, a deceptive southpaw who has pitched well and carries a steady 3.70 ERA over two starts. The Royals are 3-15 against left-handed starters, and they counter with Mitch Spence (0-0, 13.50 ERA), asking him to make a tough spot start. With the Nationals' heavy-hitters locked in, Washington holds all the situational advantages at Nationals Park.

This is a 5% play on the NATIONALS!

David's *EARLY* MLB Moneyline *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the road team in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Baltimore Orioles' home dominance, but we think the market is severely underestimating the pitching disparity. San Diego sends Walker Buehler (3-3, 4.33 ERA) to the mound, who has settled into a groove and is coming off a solid outing where he allowed just one earned run over 4.2 innings against Cincinnati. While the Orioles are always dangerous at Camden Yards, they counter with LHP Trevor Rogers who carries a bloated 6.15 ERA and a struggling 3-6 record. San Diego's offense has the high-end power to punish a struggling lefty early, making this a prime spot to back the plus-money dog.

This is a 3% play on the PADRES!

David's 4% MLB *LATE NIGHT BANGER*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. Chicago hands the ball to RHP Ben Brown (2-2, 1.74 ERA), who has established himself as the absolute anchor of the Cubs' rotation. Brown has been locked into a spectacular groove, pitching to a microscopic 1.65 ERA over his past five turns. He already possesses the definitive blueprint to neutralize San Francisco, having completely shut them down on June 6 by letting up just one lone hit over 5.1 scoreless frames. The Giants counter with RHP Trevor McDonald (2-3, 4.15 ERA), who faces a tall order trying to match zeros with Brown.

This is a 4% play on the CUBS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. Orioles RHP Trey Gibson (1-1, 4.24 ERA) has logged just four appearances (three starts) in the majors. This marks the very first time he will close as a betting favorite at the window, a status his brief resume simply hasn’t shown enough to warrant. San Diego counters with a far more steady hand in righty Randy Vásquez (5-4, 3.63). Grab the value on the live underdog and back the Padres on the moneyline.  

This is a 3% play on the PADRES!

David's 5% MLB MAX: NL *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The public and oddsmakers seem heavily influenced by Arizona's recent back-to-back shutout losses, creating a perfect overreaction line for us to exploit. The Diamondbacks lineup gets a great "get right" matchup against Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo (2-1, 5.51 ERA), who has served up seven earned runs across his last two starts and carries a bloated 5.27 ERA over his last five outings. Arizona has historically feasted on lefties, boasting a 10-5 record against southpaw starters and a dominant 4-1 record as favorites in that split. Trust the numbers and back the Diamondbacks to break out of their mini-slump.

This is a 5% play on the DIAMONDBACKS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty is sitting at 1-7 with a 5.31 ERA and having a rough season on paper, but he’s trending upward and this looks like a good buy-low opportunity. With a solid 2.51 ERA in 10 career appearances against Cleveland, including a 2.31 ERA in four starts at Progressive Field, we think the price is right to back Flaherty and Detroit on Friday night.

This is a 3% play on the TIGERS!

David's MLB Moneyline *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Oakland RHP Jack Perkins (2–3, 6.19 ERA) has rough overall numbers and gave up five runs over four innings in his first start of the season on June 5, but the A’s still look undervalued here with Milwaukee sending Brandon Sproat (1–4, 6.17 ERA) to the mound, as he has been every bit as shaky. 

This is a 3% play on OAKLAND!

David's 4% MLB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like Washington in this matchup. The Nats are on pace for their best season in years, but the market still has not fully adjusted and they continue to be priced below their current potential. Washington is 4-0 in Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.63) last four starts, and the lft-hander has allowed just four runs across his last three starts. We see Washington as undervalued here against a Giants team that is just 12–18 at home while the Nationals have been excellent travelers at 23–13 on the road.

This is a 4% play on the NATIONALS!

David's 4% MLB Moneyline 'MAJOR RAGER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The Nats are on pace for their best season in years, but the market still has not fully adjusted and they continue to be priced below their current potential. LHP Andrew Alvarez (1–0, 3.54) held Miami to one run over 4.2 innings in his first start of the season, scattering four hits with five strikeouts and just one walk, which was another strong data point after a series of solid multi-inning relief outings. We see Washington as undervalued here against a Giants team that is just 12–17 at home while the Nationals have been excellent travelers at 22–13 on the road. 

This is a 4% play on the NATIONALS!

David's MLB *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The Nationals have been the most profitable away team in baseball and they are 26-6 against the RL as underdogs on the road. Nats RHP Miles Mikolas (1-5, 6.39)  has stabilized after a shaky starts and he owns a 5-1 record with a 2.91 ERA over six career starts and five relief efforts against the Giants. 

This is a 3% play on the NATIONALS!

David's Mets @ Padres MLB *BANKROLL BOO$TER*

We really like the away team in this matchup. The Mets are using Huascar Brazoban (3–1, 2.25 ERA) as the opener in what should be a bullpen game, with Sean Manaea likely to enter the game in bulk relief. That’s not necessarily a negative with a relief corps that has quietly been one of the sharper units in baseball this season. The Padres are projected to see a lot of left-handed looks out of the Mets’ bullpen (like Manaea), and they’ve been even worse vs southpaws. 

This is a 3% play on the METS!

David's MLB MONEYLINE *MONEY MOVER*

We really like the home team in this matchup. Both teams are 4-6 in their last 10, but while Cincinnati has just two wins in their last eight, the Cardinals have put up 15 runs over back-to-back wins. The Cardinals are 5-2 in LHP Matthew Liberatore's (3-3. 4.35) home starts, 2-0 as favorites.  

This is a 3% play on the CARDINALS!